# Hope?



## catsup948 (Feb 2, 2013)

I don't post very often on AZ but I feel I need to post my thoughts and hopes for the rest of this winter.  I look at this winter a lot different than last.  Last winter was rough for all of New England.  I skied waist deep powder on October 30th, that was my season highlight.  We never had any cold weather, the whole winter felt like the first week of April.  This winter has hit a wall after early snow. But I really feel like this winter will turn itself around.  Who remembers 2007? Winter was bleak and we got smashed on Valentines Day, snow here in western mass did not melt until early April: 6 solid weeks of winter.  2009-2010 we got a massive storm the last week of February.   I'd say we only had about 3 weeks of real winter that season.  But do I remember the rest of that winter, no I remember the last three weeks of great skiing(60 inches at Saddleback followed by 12" the next day!).  

I have hope for this winter!


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## Cornhead (Feb 3, 2013)

Thank God for the snow around Christmas/New Year's Day, if it weren't for that, I'd really be depressed. My faith was restored with an awesome powder day at little old Snow Ridge. I'm embarking on a Cannon, Saddleback, Sugarloaf tour on Thursday. I had seriously considered canceling, but I've got a shitload of vouchers, and vacation time, to use, so I'm biting the bullet, and hoping for the best. 

My employer's policy on vacation is two week's notice. Madame president is a snowmobiler, next best thing to her being a skier, I asked her if I can give short notice to take a day, or two, she agreed. This is great news as hopefully I can intercept upcoming storms, if they come. Let's all hope multiple days in the 80's in March, like last year, are not the new norm. 

I hope she will let me give short notice in the upcoming seasons, I hate making plans in advance and hoping the stars align, it's great when they do, but lately it's more likely they won't.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 3, 2013)

It is always greatest skiing is natural snow for sure. Powder days are awesome! I had some a few years ago at Platty. I like to get one this winter. Winters being the way they are now, gives me thoughts of having to buy a season pass next year at a place that makes a good amount of snow, and does not required snow fall to get all their trails open. At least it has been cold enough for the hills to make snow. I remember some very warm times in the past several years. I just happy to to get out of the boring house and on the hills.


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## Cornhead (Feb 3, 2013)

Good morning Scotty, heading over to my Brother's place in about an hour. Rambo loaned me a couple pair of boots for my Bro to try. He was skiing my old Head boots last year. I tried to ski in them at Killington, I couldn't get them snug enough and my Bro's feet are smaller than mine. WTF, they're my boots, guess I lost alot of weight in my ankles. I have to adjust the bindings on my Tigersharks to fit Rambo's boots. 

See you in Margaretsville!


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## ScottySkis (Feb 3, 2013)

Cornhead said:


> Good morning Scotty, heading over to my Brother's place in about an hour. Rambo loaned me a couple pair of boots for my Bro to try. He was skiing my old Head boots last year. I tried to ski in them at Killington, I couldn't get them snug enough and my Bro's feet are smaller than mine. WTF, they're my boots, guess I lost alot of weight in my ankles. I have to adjust the bindings on my Tigersharks to fit Rambo's boots.
> 
> See you in Margaretsville!


Sweet. I will see you their.


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## xwhaler (Feb 3, 2013)

Nice post Jamie.    I have some vouchers id like to use.     Have a blast at the summit.    I join u guys next yr with little man!


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## riverc0il (Feb 3, 2013)

> =catsup948;756127Who remembers 2007?


I remember 2007. But the big difference is the V Day Blizzard didn't fall on essentially no base. Skiing was actually quite good in late January and early February. Here are a few of my reports showing that things were actually quite nice before that Blizzard:http://www.thesnowway.com/2007/01/20/154http://www.thesnowway.com/2007/01/27/tree-skiing-madness-in-thin-cover-at-jayhttp://www.thesnowway.com/2007/02/04/jay-peak-vt-3http://www.thesnowway.com/2007/02/09/two-pre-work-runs-on-friday-at-burkeI had a few other reports leading up to the blizzard that reported not stellar but not horrible conditions. The fact is that there was plenty of natural snow, on map tree skiing, and even some off map tree skiing to be had late January into early February. Obviously, Jay gets better than average snow but I also have a great report from Burke in there from early February and they only average around 200". Right now, I do not think there is a single natural snow trail open in New England. Most resorts have glades with no base, maybe a few inches of recent snow since the thaw at best. The problem is that natural snow trails have absolutely no base, we are starting over. We are essentially skiing on late November snow... just a heck of a lot more trails than would be covered at that time. A single blizzard will not put all options on the table. We need a few storms and consolidations to bury the junk again. We always get mid-winter thaws but I've never seen one completely take out the base region wide for all natural snow options. While we have a "what have you done for me lately" with the weather... one big storm won't bring the trees back into play unless it is truly epic and absolutely bottomless. Obviously, we don't know what is going to happen. But we do know that any snow will fall on zero base and we are rebuilding from scratch and that means it is going to take some major storm systems to get us even close to average and it is almost implausible that we'll get above average without a 2001 style slam dunk. I'm ready for some surprises. But I'm looking at this realistically. Last year sucked but at least we never went back to square one on base depths.


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## riverc0il (Feb 3, 2013)

> =catsup948;756127Who remembers 2007?


I remember 2007. But the big difference is the V Day Blizzard didn't fall on essentially no base. Skiing was actually quite good in late January and early February. Here are a few of my reports showing that things were actually quite nice before that Blizzard:

http://www.thesnowway.com/2007/01/20/154

http://www.thesnowway.com/2007/01/27/tree-skiing-madness-in-thin-cover-at-jay

http://www.thesnowway.com/2007/02/04/jay-peak-vt-3

http://www.thesnowway.com/2007/02/09/two-pre-work-runs-on-friday-at-burke

I had a few other reports leading up to the blizzard that reported not stellar but not horrible conditions. The fact is that there was plenty of natural snow, on map tree skiing, and even some off map tree skiing to be had late January into early February. Obviously, Jay gets better than average snow but I also have a great report from Burke in there from early February and they only average around 200". 

Right now, I do not think there is a single natural snow trail open in New England. Most resorts have glades with no base, maybe a few inches of recent snow since the thaw at best. The problem is that natural snow trails have absolutely no base, we are starting over. We are essentially skiing on late November snow... just a heck of a lot more trails than would be covered at that time. A single blizzard will not put all options on the table. We need a few storms and consolidations to bury the junk again. 

We always get mid-winter thaws but I've never seen one completely take out the base region wide for all natural snow options. While we have a "what have you done for me lately" with the weather... one big storm won't bring the trees back into play unless it is truly epic and absolutely bottomless. Obviously, we don't know what is going to happen. But we do know that any snow will fall on zero base and we are rebuilding from scratch and that means it is going to take some major storm systems to get us even close to average and it is almost implausible that we'll get above average without a 2001 style slam dunk. 

I'm ready for some surprises. But I'm looking at this realistically. Last year sucked but at least we never went back to square one on base depths.


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## riverc0il (Feb 3, 2013)

Edit post feature seems a little buggy, ah well.


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## billski (Feb 3, 2013)

Geez River, you sure know how to get me down.  Just shove the facts at me.
Meh, I'm dreaming.  I'm going out no matter how bad the snow is - at least I can do something vaguely similar to skiing 
Nothing worse than getting to be middle of March and only gone out a  handful of times, on all the wrong day.

I'm saving up all my viruses and flus for the day(s) when a miracle occurs and I must disappear.  No friends day is planned.  Now don't mix this up with facts!


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## riverc0il (Feb 3, 2013)

FWIW.... I really enjoyed the skiing at Burke today. Granted, they only had four unique top to bottom groomers and all natural snow trails had at best two inches on top of no base whatsoever. But sometimes having a groomer ripper day is quite fun. The problem is if that continues to happen multiple weekends in a row...

I'm not down on the season completely. But I am realistic. We have 0" of base on natural snow trails right now. That means we are one to two months behind depending on where you ski and what your expectations are. That is a hard blow to recover from when we have only two more months of reliable snowfall months (baring some freak April action) to not only get some snow on the ground but build the base from scratch. And the next few weeks don't look very good based on what I just saw on the Single Chair blog.


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## riverc0il (Feb 3, 2013)

Wow. Just check out the damage on Hillman's Highway:
http://www.mountwashingtonavalanche...-february-2013/2013-02-01-hillmans-slush3.jpg



Unreal.

And the Sherburne:
http://www.mountwashingtonavalanche...an-february-2013/2013-02-01-sherburne-ice.jpg


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## billski (Feb 3, 2013)

Untrue to my style, I am actually looking more seriously skiing during President's day week.   We are conspiring to hit Burke at an opportune time.  I'm taking it one week (day?) at a time.

river - I am just going to close my eyes and pretend I didn't see your links to Hillman's and Sherburne.  Otherwise I might end up at the Faulkner.. http://www.brighamandwomensfaulkner.org/addiction.html


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## JDMRoma (Feb 3, 2013)

billski said:


> Untrue to my style, I am actually looking more seriously skiing during President's day week.   We are conspiring to hit Burke at an opportune time.  I'm taking it one week (day?) at a time.
> 
> river - I am just going to close my eyes and pretend I didn't see your links to Hillman's and Sherburne.  Otherwise I might end up at the Faulkner.. http://www.brighamandwomensfaulkner.org/addiction.html


I had originally planned to avoid Presidents week too but if there is snow Im skiing, Also looking to hit Burke and or Jay on a good day of or after a blockbuster storm !


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## Riverskier (Feb 4, 2013)

riverc0il said:


> FWIW.... I really enjoyed the skiing at Burke today. Granted, they only had four unique top to bottom groomers and all natural snow trails had at best two inches on top of no base whatsoever. But sometimes having a groomer ripper day is quite fun. The problem is if that continues to happen multiple weekends in a row...
> 
> I'm not down on the season completely. But I am realistic. We have 0" of base on natural snow trails right now. That means we are one to two months behind depending on where you ski and what your expectations are. That is a hard blow to recover from when we have only two more months of reliable snowfall months (baring some freak April action) to not only get some snow on the ground but build the base from scratch. And the next few weeks don't look very good based on what I just saw on the Single Chair blog.



Your assessment of the current base on natural terrain is not true for Maine. I was at Sunday River yesterday and they still have a pretty good base on the natural terrain. That base is even deeper (naturally) at Sugarloaf and Saddleback. It obviously isn't even remotely skiable now, but I would say one good foot plus storm, or a couple small ones, would put most natural terrain back into play. I can't speak for NH or VT though, and if it doesn't start snowing soon it is a moot point!


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## St. Bear (Feb 4, 2013)

Single Chair Blog says possible 5-10" Thurs into Fri.  That's Green spine centric, of course.


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## legalskier (Feb 4, 2013)

^ Let's "hope" they're right!


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## billski (Feb 4, 2013)

Desperate times deserve desperate measures.  I'm finding the forecast I like best and going with it !


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## billski (Feb 4, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Single Chair Blog says possible 5-10" Thurs into Fri.  That's Green spine centric, of course.



Well guys, I'm heading to NVT on Thursday, so that's always a good sign.   We already blew out one set of boards and offered them to Ullr.  He was pleased.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 4, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> *Single Chair Blog says possible 5-10" Thurs into Fri.*  That's Green spine centric, of course.



Looking at the models, I dont know what model he's possibly using to arrive at 10" on the high.  Hope he's right, but that guy is always very snowptimistic with his totals.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 4, 2013)

The EURO and UKMET are showing a pretty decent snowstorm for Friday into Saturday (but it's not there on the GFS or Canuck models).  Hopefully the across-the-pond models verify instead of their NA competition.


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## bdfreetuna (Feb 4, 2013)

Rivercoil hit it right on the head. Last year we never got down to zero base at this point in the year. We are hovering at zero base in the woods in much of New England right now (some places further north still have a foot in the woods but they want to preserve it like they're holding on to a purse of f*cking diamonds and nobody can ski it until they get more snow).

Problem is the weather outlook for the next several weeks sucks. More of the same shit.

I will ski in the woods with 3 inches of snow in the spring and I will purposefully ski at the places that won't kick me out or give me crap for doing so. And it's starting to look like that's going to be the plan this year.

Gotta give the ski areas credit they really ramped it up with snowmaking this year. But you just can't get by on one or two decent storms in a season followed by summer in January and spring in February.

I'm kinda pissed right now..


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## bdfreetuna (Feb 4, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> The EURO and UKMET are showing a pretty decent snowstorm for Friday into Saturday (but it's not there on the GFS or Canuck models).  Hopefully the across-the-pond models verify instead of their NA competition.



Yeah I saw those graphics come up too (I'm sure the same FB weather people you are speaking of). Earlier in the season these folks were right on the money with the snowfall when and wheres. Lately I feel like they realize their entire fanbase is skiers and have been trying to cater to what skiers want to see.

That said I hope we get 5 feet of snow over the next two weeks.


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## bdfreetuna (Feb 4, 2013)

My plan in the future... if and when we get snow: Ski like there is no tomorrow.

This would involve actually saving more than a few paychecks at a time. But I can work on that. First week of January this year, for example, under my new plan, I would have skied all week.

As it were, I only skied 7 times in 11 days time span. Okay, that was pretty good.

But dammit, I thought there would be more to come!!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 4, 2013)

bdfreetuna said:


> Yeah I saw those graphics come up too (I'm sure the same FB weather people you are speaking of). Earlier in the season these folks were right on the money with the snowfall when and wheres. Lately I feel like they realize their entire fanbase is skiers and have been trying to cater to what skiers want to see.
> 
> That said I hope we get 5 feet of snow over the next two weeks.



These are actual meteorological models, not  pictures created by people on Facebook.

And the American model (GFS) that just came out just went from beautiful clear day, to hammering snowstorm (i.e. it now agrees with the Brit and EU models).  Canadian model isnt out yet, but we're now at 3/4 models agreeing on a snowstorm for Friday night.  

The Rain/Snow line is currently in north Jersey, which means Poconos will (as usual) likely get screwed if that doesnt move south.  And sadly, this is tracking east at the moment, so ME, NH, VT, DAX/CATS is the order of who will get the most goods if it verifies.


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## catsup948 (Feb 5, 2013)

I hope this storm takes a strong left hook and slams western maine with feet of snow friday night!  HAHA!  This winter really hasn't been all that bad except for the two thaws we had in January.  January is not on average a snowy month for most of New England. December, February and some places March average more snow than January.  The next 14 days seem active so I say bring it!


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## billski (Feb 5, 2013)

Have boards will travel.  Within 300 miles.  Ullr says "go for it!"


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## bdfreetuna (Feb 5, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> These are actual meteorological models, not  pictures created by people on Facebook.
> 
> And the American model (GFS) that just came out just went from beautiful clear day, to hammering snowstorm (i.e. it now agrees with the Brit and EU models).  Canadian model isnt out yet, but we're now at 3/4 models agreeing on a snowstorm for Friday night.



Don't be a wise ass I'm talking about the models New England Weather Works is posting 

Things are looking up though!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 6, 2013)

bdfreetuna said:


> *Don't be a wise ass I'm talking about the models New England Weather Works is posting*
> 
> Things are looking up though!



I'm not being a wise ass; none of these people have proprietary content, it's all derived from the GSF, UKMET, Euro, Canadian and JMA (if they actually look at that one).   So if you follow 8, 10, 12 mets or amateur mets on Facebook or Twitter etc.. they're all going to post pretty similar things at the exact same time, and there are many of them.  Similarly, you can do the same work yourself if you're so inclined.


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