# first signs of winter



## gmcunni (Aug 29, 2010)

mixed frozen in the mountains out west..


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## Philpug (Aug 30, 2010)

We had some snow in the high elevations of Tahoe.


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## snoseek (Aug 30, 2010)

What in the fuck am I doing in New Hampshire!?!?!?


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## Puck it (Aug 30, 2010)

Crested Butte also got a dusting last week.


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## St. Bear (Aug 30, 2010)

http://www.flickr.com/photos/skiutahyeti/4941752459/


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## polski (Sep 12, 2010)

Upslope snow midweek in Greens/ADKs? FIS

NWS-Burlington discussion also mentions possible "few wet snowflakes" above 2500' at Jay.


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## gpetrics (Sep 12, 2010)

polski said:


> Upslope snow midweek in Greens/ADKs? FIS
> 
> NWS-Burlington discussion also mentions possible "few wet snowflakes" above 2500' at Jay.



thanks for the link polski! you know we'll be keeping our eyes peeled just in case


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## bigbog (Sep 12, 2010)

polski said:


> Upslope snow midweek in Greens/ADKs? FIS
> 
> NWS-Burlington discussion also mentions possible "few wet snowflakes" above 2500' at Jay.


May not be much but it's a start...in September = not bad.


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## Mildcat (Sep 13, 2010)

gpetrics said:


> thanks for the link polski! you know we'll be keeping our eyes peeled just in case



Looking forward to the trip report.


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## Glenn (Sep 13, 2010)

I watched the weather report Saturday night up in VT. In some of the northn parts of the state, they were saying there could be patchy frost later this week. 

Some of the leaves up there are starting to change slightly. I was out in the woods on the quad yesterday and air was cool.


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## wa-loaf (Sep 13, 2010)

There was a weather alert on NPR the afternoon. The woman said that there was a Winter Storm Warning! I almost drove off the road, then she corrected and said it was Severe Thunderstorm Warning. I'll take it as a sign however ...


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## Geezer (Sep 15, 2010)

Here's a good winter-is-coming milestone.  Today is the first day of the season that the NWS publishes these snow forecast charts.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml


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## VR17 (Sep 15, 2010)

Whisltler website showed they had some acum at the top on 9/12/10


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## ERJ-145CA (Sep 16, 2010)

It's been in the mid 40's the last 2 mornings in northwestern Jersey.


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## gmcunni (Sep 16, 2010)

ERJ-145CA said:


> It's been in the mid 40's the last 2 mornings in northwestern Jersey.



the tile floor in our kitchen was cold on my feet this morning and i actually closed a few windows :-D


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## Angus (Sep 16, 2010)

I just looked @

http://mountwashington.org/weather/cam/deck/

SNOW!!

I can't figure out how to embed the picture sorry

http://timefortuckerman.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13416


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## gmcunni (Sep 16, 2010)




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## 4aprice (Sep 16, 2010)

ERJ-145CA said:


> It's been in the mid 40's the last 2 mornings in northwestern Jersey.




1st longsleeved work-out this morning.  Some white showing up on Mt Washington.  The seasons a changing.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## mondeo (Sep 16, 2010)

Also, AZ's seemed to have sprung to life in the last week or so.


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## millerm277 (Sep 20, 2010)

Most likely, first (light) frost here in Binghamton, NY tonight...:-o


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## riverc0il (Sep 20, 2010)

Colors were really nice on tonight's ride. Just about to go off... not quite there yet though.


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## k123 (Sep 21, 2010)

At Belleayre its 35 degrees right now


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## NYDrew (Sep 21, 2010)

Had to run my defroster on hot past 2 nights driving to work.


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## Beetlenut (Sep 21, 2010)

*Huge Snowstorm Hits Banff-Lake Louise!

*






Over 20cm of snow blanketed Banff-Lake Louise, with more forecasted.   The snowstorm started yesterday and continued non-stop throughout the night.   With just over a month until opening, it looks like it's going to be a fantastic season!


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## WinnChill (Sep 22, 2010)

A little late to the party but I'm trying to get back into the swing of things.  I'll be checking back as often as possible to see what's on the horizon!  

Hope everyone had a great summer!  

Cheers,
WC


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## Glenn (Sep 22, 2010)

Welcome back WinnChill! :beer:


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## k123 (Sep 26, 2010)

On accuweather, the forecast for belleayre from Oct. 2-6 has lows of 37, 31, 32, 32, 37.  Almost there!   

For Sunday River, it is calling for lows of 26, 27, and  28 for the 3rd- 5th.  Will they turn on the guns?


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## rocojerry (Sep 27, 2010)

I wore my winter jacket today, granted its a waterproof windbreaker --


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## k123 (Sep 27, 2010)

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2010/09/27/where-to-hit-the-slopes-in-2010-11/


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## gmcunni (Sep 27, 2010)

k123 said:


> http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2010/09/27/where-to-hit-the-slopes-in-2010-11/



F Yeah!



> In New England, where last year’s weather was a letdown for East Coast skiers, winter will return in full force. Anyone who enjoys the low, rolling mountains of the Northeast knows there is no better skiing east of the Mississippi than in Vermont’s many unspoiled peaks. With heavy snow and colder than average temperatures predicted for much of the season, Vermont, and nearby resorts in New Hampshire and Maine, will be the place to be this winter. New York’s Catskill and Adirondack ranges, as well as the Poconos and Laurel Mountains in Pennsylvania, should also see some good skiing weather this season.
> 
> Across New England and the Mid Atlantic, heavy snow in early December will bring an early start to the skiing season. Numbingly cold temperatures and a series of heavy snowstorms predicted throughout the following months should keep the slopes covered with the white stuff for the rest of the traditional season.


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## riverc0il (Sep 27, 2010)

C'mon, that Farmers Almanac is pure bunk. Not even an attempt at using long term meteorological modeling to back up their very general predictions. I am not getting amped up over that stupidity. I am more interested in knowing what the developing extremely strong La Nina has done historically for NoNE. I am having trouble recalling strong La Nina years and will need to dig up that info.


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## riverc0il (Sep 27, 2010)

http://webpages.charter.net/tcrocker818/

Shows that far Northern Greens (Smuggs, Jay, Stowe) and the western Whites (Cannon and Loon) are mildly favored by La Nina events. I am down for that!!! It looks like Cannon's recent 2nd most snowiest record year was during a mild La Nina. 00-01 was a mild La Nina year too. We'll have to see how the severe strength of this La Nina has effect.


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## 4aprice (Sep 28, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> http://webpages.charter.net/tcrocker818/
> 
> Shows that far Northern Greens (Smuggs, Jay, Stowe) and the western Whites (Cannon and Loon) are mildly favored by La Nina events. I am down for that!!! It looks like Cannon's recent 2nd most snowiest record year was during a mild La Nina. 00-01 was a mild La Nina year too. We'll have to see how the severe strength of this La Nina has effect.




There alot of variables that could make winter play out either way.  Is the La Nina east based or west based, When does it peak? etc.  You say strong but I haven't seen that from what I've read, you could be right.

La Nina's generally feature a stronger northern branch of the jet stream (read Alberta Clippers) as opposed to El Nino's which feature a stronger southern Jet (read Noreaster's) so I would think your right that N Vt would do best. They also usually feature a warm Southeast Ridge.  Where that ridge sets up is also an important key.  Lake effect could be potent too.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## gmcunni (Sep 28, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> C'mon, that Farmers Almanac is pure bunk.



don't rain on my parade!


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## k123 (Sep 28, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> C'mon, that Farmers Almanac is pure bunk. Not even an attempt at using long term meteorological modeling to back up their very general predictions. I am not getting amped up over that stupidity. I am more interested in knowing what the developing extremely strong La Nina has done historically for NoNE. I am having trouble recalling strong La Nina years and will need to dig up that info.



http://www.weatheradvance.com/quicksearch/“mid-term-updated-winter-forecast”#more-5279 

I didn't take the time to read through the whole thing but I did look at the maps:lol:


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## WinnChill (Sep 29, 2010)

Maybe a few summit snowflakes for Jay and Smuggs Saturday night when colder air dips in a little.  Wouldn't expect much with most of the moisture gone but it's possible...we'll see.
***EDIT--Perhaps add Killington summit and through Sunday***


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## k123 (Oct 11, 2010)

Another first sign of winter..... mount snow changed their homepage back to the winter site and it is a new site


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## WinnChill (Oct 12, 2010)

Like others who are following this weekend's storm, we certainly like the possibility of low enough snow levels for some summit snowfall (N VT, N NH).


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## WinnChill (Oct 12, 2010)

And we may see some good downstream blocking to keep a cooler pattern for our area.  Whether or not it's enough to get summit snowguns going is yet to be seen.  We'll keep watching.


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## WinnChill (Oct 13, 2010)

We'll be watching those snow levels through VT drop through the day on Friday but mainly Friday night/Saturday morning, Jay/Smugg/Stowe/SB/Killington summits will be getting some snowfall.


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## riverc0il (Oct 14, 2010)

Woo! Keep us posted on your projections for totals.


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## WinnChill (Oct 14, 2010)

Snow levels trending a bit lower through the day tomorrow so we could see a summit changeover to snow a bit sooner.  Haven't had too much time to look at things lately but could certainly see those N VT summits (Smuggs/Stowe/Jay and even Killington) picking up several inches (say, half a foot or so) by late Friday.  Snow levels creep downslope Friday night for those areas but moisture tapers off by then, so if any midslope/base snowfall, it'll be minimal accumulations if any.  

Will keep tracking when able and check back in here soon.


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## WinnChill (Oct 14, 2010)

Northern VT summits could get a lot more if this thing pans out....there will be a lot of moisture getting wrapped up into the region.  Should be fun to watch.


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## riverc0il (Oct 14, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Northern VT summits could get a lot more if this thing pans out....there will be a lot of moisture getting wrapped up into the region.  Should be fun to watch.


Any love for the White Mountains from this storm or am I gonna have to drive all the way to NoVT to go git' sum? 8)8)


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## WinnChill (Oct 15, 2010)

Sorry for the delay on this but it'll be a little tougher for the Whites as colder air hangs west.  Snow levels remain a bit to high for most right now, except for Mt. Washington.  They'll drop later today but after most moisture pulls away.  Still would expect some summit snow showers late today/tonight but not much accumulations.


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## Puck it (Oct 15, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Sorry for the delay on this but it'll be a little tougher for the Whites as colder air hangs west. Snow levels remain a bit to high for most right now, except for Mt. Washington. They'll drop later today but after most moisture pulls away. Still would expect some summit snow showers late today/tonight but not much accumulations.


 
Small patch of pink and blue over the Rock Pile right now. The only spot though radar.  But the K-ton show snow at the Bear and Mountain View.  Peak cam is covered by something...........  Snow?


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## WinnChill (Oct 15, 2010)

Yep--they've been getting light snow (mostly blowing snow) since late last night--steady temps in the upper 20's, which should drop later today.


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## riverc0il (Oct 15, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Sorry for the delay on this but it'll be a little tougher for the Whites as colder air hangs west.  Snow levels remain a bit to high for most right now, except for Mt. Washington.  They'll drop later today but after most moisture pulls away.  Still would expect some summit snow showers late today/tonight but not much accumulations.


Great, thanks for the update. johnskismore reported in another thread that his source reports no snow in Franconia yet so it seems like this is not a skiable event for the Whites (at least by my measure of skiable, which is rather extreme but not quite as extreme as some!). I'll be VT bound tomorrow. Usually Cannon does pretty well with these types of events but looks like the moisture and the cold didn't quite get into NH the way it did in VT and the Dacks.


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## WinnChill (Oct 15, 2010)

Have fun in VT!  Looks like Mt Mansfield picked up quite a bit.  Killington had some accumulations as well.  The storm wrapped up so tight that it wrapped in colder air aloft for the Whites.  Mt Washington's temps actually went UP this afternoon changing snow over to freezing rain....will have to wait til next time.


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## NYDrew (Oct 18, 2010)

Snow coverage update:

From the champlain valley the snow on the south face of mansfeild is very obvious.  Appears to be quite a bit of snow op there.  Smuggs and Stowe likely have a lot of snow on the winter side of the mountain.

Burke (visible from VT-289) on the way home from work has noticable snow on the trails.  Appears to be skiable  for the more skilled skiers from the distance.  

Let the winter begin....


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## Glenn (Oct 22, 2010)

Spent the day running the chainsaw and hauling wood with the quad and trailer. I was bucking some small saplings when I heard my wife over the saw and through my ear muffs....it was snowing. Sweet. Pretty darn early to see flakes in SoVT.


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## St. Bear (Oct 22, 2010)

Reports from friends that there were snow flurries in Concord, NH today.


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## NYDrew (Oct 24, 2010)

Snow in Essex Junction (champlain valley) for a short while around noon yesterday.  Mansfield is very white, caught a glimpse of smuggs and it looks good.


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## billski (Oct 28, 2010)

Here we go again, popping off at 65F at 1230am.  
Well maybe Saturday we can start putting it in the bank again...


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## Glenn (Oct 28, 2010)

This weather is gross. Bring back fall please.


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## andrec10 (Oct 28, 2010)

Glenn said:


> This weather is gross. Bring back fall please.



+1


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## WinnChill (Oct 28, 2010)

Thankfully we turn colder Friday and this weekend....a couple batches of snow showers rotate through (late Friday and another Saturday) for some light summit accumulations for northern VT/NH and even a few ME summits.  Snowmaking should start resuming Friday night


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## Warp Daddy (Oct 28, 2010)

Hey the last several days have been  beautiful - had several great rounds of golf in ,------- Gotta B Versatile  and adapt


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## NYDrew (Oct 29, 2010)

Snow is gone from the mountains


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## SKIQUATTRO (Nov 1, 2010)

old man winter is knockin' on the door.....37 this morning..


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## hammer (Nov 1, 2010)

Saw first snow flake last night...on the car.

Now that November's here I say BRING IT ON.


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## billski (Nov 1, 2010)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> old man winter is knockin' on the door.....37 this morning..



32F in the Boston 'burbs today.


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## wa-loaf (Nov 1, 2010)

billski said:


> 32F in the Boston 'burbs today.



29F at my house.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Nov 1, 2010)

snow makes quattro happy....


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## billski (Nov 1, 2010)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> snow makes quattro happy....


Ever notice how it seems to run a little better when it's cold and snowy??  me 2.


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## billski (Nov 2, 2010)

snowing at MRG this afternoon.  Can I have a "yaw-hoo!"  ???

http://www.madriverglen.com/?Page=cams.html


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## k123 (Nov 2, 2010)

Here's an interesting post about the farmers almanac and the upcoming weather for the Northeast.  Looks like we are in for a cold blast this weekend.  It's off of weatheradvance.com:

http://www.weatheradvance.com/

Just a quick post tonight to just point out the accuracy so far with the farmers almanac. Almost each time it says a storm system will be around in a certain time frame, IT IS. Whenever it says it will be colder or warmer than average during a time frame it has been. Now, I am just pointing this out. But the more and more time goes on I am growing more and more confident that this will not be the traditional La Nina. To point out the accuracy of the Farmers almanac here is what it says for the next few weeks for the Northeast including Virginia, Delaware, West Virginia, Maryland, and Washington D.C . So far it is right for the 1st though the 3rd. It is colder than average by about 5 degrees and a Nor’ Easter is posed to strike the east coast Thursday, then it will be fair weather. Well it did not mention a cold blast which will be headed for the northeast BUT it never did say Mild either. Just something to look at. At the end of the post I have one interesting point all should keep in mind in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

November 2010
1st-3rd. Fair, cold.
4th-7th. Stormy, heavy rains, possibly mixed with wet snow. Icy glaze for some areas.
8th-11th. Fair.
12th-15th. Rain, then clearing.
16th-19th. Increasingly cloudy, with rain and (over mountains) wet snow.
20th-23rd. More rain, wet snow, then clearing, colder.
24th-27th. Unsettled for Thanksgiving, with light snow, then clearing.
28th-30th. Mostly fair.

****THE COLDEST AND SNOWIEST PORTION OF TIME FOR THIS AREA IS IN JANUARY, FEBRUARY, AND EARLY MARCH ACCORDING TO THIS ALMANAC.****

Just a quick note. There are currently Frost and Freeze Warnings in several areas tonight, in the D.C metro. Why is this interesting. Well because this is around the same time during the winter of 2002-2003 that this area saw its first frosts and freezes. This is earlier than normal for most areas. And for areas not falling bellow freezing tonight then you will most likely on Friday and Saturday with temps for highs in the mid-40′s about 10-15 degrees bellow average and lows in the mid 20′s to low 30′s region wide! This past October pretty much mirrored the October of 2002-2003.  Something to keep an eye on, and something to think about! Goodnight folks and I will try and have an update on the coming rainstorm for Thursday and the cold blast that will follow!


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## SKIQUATTRO (Nov 3, 2010)

widespread frost on the cars and grasses this morning on LI


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## billski (Nov 3, 2010)

Serious window scraping on the windshields this morning here in the flatlands.  The colors are rapidly fading, leaf peeping season is clearly over and Stick Season is underway.  What follows next is waited for more anxiously than Christmas morning...


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## bigbog (Nov 3, 2010)

You have that right!   ...Well actually that's 2nd in the queue...1st is getting skiboots(being shipped) back from bootguy!...in a few days.


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## bigbog (Nov 3, 2010)

billski said:


> Ever notice how it seems to run a little better when it's cold and snowy??  me 2.



Just like after it has been washed.....


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## Glenn (Nov 8, 2010)

Nice little winter surprise here in CT this AM.


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## MommaBear (Nov 8, 2010)

Glenn said:


> Nice little winter surprise here in CT this AM.



Yeah, went to bed with the assurances of the weather lady that we may see "a few flakes" but "nothing that will affect your commute".  Woke to a 90 minute school delay - um, THAT affects my commute.

And the weather guys are going off on how bizzare the weather is.  When I heard thunder, I assumed it was raining...bit surprised to see the ground covered.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Nov 8, 2010)

snow squall just came thru my house (north shore LI), now some sleet....yipppeee!!!!


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## RootDKJ (Nov 8, 2010)

billski said:


> Ever notice how it seems to run a little better when it's cold and snowy??  me 2.


Yes. My turbo (well the intercooler actually) is loving this weather.


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## KingM (Nov 8, 2010)

They canceled schools in the Mad River Valley this morning. Mostly ice, but I'm hoping there's some snow falling on the mountain.


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## andrec10 (Nov 8, 2010)

Snowing and Sleeting right now!


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## KingM (Nov 9, 2010)

Lots of nasty ice and sleet up here over the last 36 hours with enough snow to leave the ground white in the valley. Anyone know if the Northern Vermont mountains picked up any accumulation? The web sites are curiously silent.


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## billski (Nov 9, 2010)

KingM said:


> Lots of nasty ice and sleet up here over the last 36 hours with enough snow to leave the ground white in the valley. Anyone know if the Northern Vermont mountains picked up any accumulation? The web sites are curiously silent.



Ah, the harbingers of better days to come.  Web cams tell all.
Underhill looks nice
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/cams/underhill.shtml
Just outside pokemo :
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/cams/mtholly.shtml


Last night about 5pm Stowe had a good inch or two at the base.

Most of the AZ webcam links are broken.  That's the thing about web sites.  They move everything once a year, needed or not!
http://skiing.alpinezone.com/web_cams/vermont.htm


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## WinnChill (Nov 9, 2010)

KingM said:


> Lots of nasty ice and sleet up here over the last 36 hours with enough snow to leave the ground white in the valley. Anyone know if the Northern Vermont mountains picked up any accumulation? The web sites are curiously silent.



The best I could find was K's latest Tweet mentioning a delayed opening and "deicing lift."  While a bit cooler, I suspect NVT areas dealt with the same icy conditions too.  Will keep poking around.


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## WinnChill (Nov 9, 2010)

billski said:


> Ah, the harbingers of better days to come.  Web cams tell all.
> Underhill looks nice
> http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/cams/underhill.shtml
> Just outside pokemo :
> ...



Looks like a slushy/SnoCone type coating...bleh.


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## k123 (Nov 9, 2010)

Belleayre got 4 inches of snow yesterday.







Although it looks like it is gonna stay warm for a while, the week of the 22nd is looking good so far with temps in the low teens over night for belleayre.


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## k123 (Nov 10, 2010)

The cold is on the way...

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/41408/east-beautiful-weekend-weather-1.asp

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/41406/nasty-cold-thanksgiving-week-2.asp


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## billski (Nov 10, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Looks like a slushy/SnoCone type coating...bleh.


I'll call them as I see them - "harbingers", not a license to ski!


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## billski (Nov 15, 2010)

I see some flakes in various forecasts for later this week.  Hopefully we'll get rid of this bad weather soon enough!


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## Glenn (Nov 15, 2010)

Later this week looks better. This weekend, in SoVT...it was 60 on Saturday. Grrrrr!


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## hammer (Nov 16, 2010)

So how many ski areas will get enough cold wx to open by Thanksgiving?  Not many unfortunately... :???:


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## WinnChill (Nov 16, 2010)

hammer said:


> So how many ski areas will get enough cold wx to open by Thanksgiving?  Not many unfortunately... :???:



This weekend bodes well for snowmaking temps for most (especially N VT, N NH, N ME).  Whether they choose to make snow or wait for the natural stuff is up to each resort.  Those who have had partial openings already should be in good shape to work the guns through the weekend (K, SR...the Loaf will try for this weekend).  Temps will be back and forth early next week and then looking for another cold shot trying to work in Thanksgiving weekend.


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## KingM (Nov 16, 2010)

I'm starting to get anxious. We're all the way until Thanksgiving before the cold starts to arrive.


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## billski (Nov 16, 2010)

KingM said:


> I'm starting to get anxious. We're all the way until Thanksgiving before the cold starts to arrive.


talk to the man.  or see the pope.  or burn some of those old boards.....:beer:

http://snowforecast.com/SugarbushResort


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