# 12/19 - 12/20 Storm Discussion Thread



## Greg (Dec 15, 2009)

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?article=1


----------



## billski (Dec 15, 2009)

I want what they are smokin' 

If it snows, I goes.
​


----------



## St. Bear (Dec 15, 2009)

Maybe you should rename this the X-Mas Speculation Thread.


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 15, 2009)

It will snow since it wont be "Convenient" for me.


----------



## The Sneak (Dec 15, 2009)

Mighty Ullr

Have I not more than tithed in the form of equipment upgrades? Have I not consumed in your name many beers darker than the permanent night of scandinavian winter? Have I not spread the gospel of pow? Have I not endured many an accursed, dismal fallow weather pattern devoid of your blessings? I beseech thee to look upon your followers with great favor come the sabbath, so that BEast may be rocking on monday.


----------



## Glenn (Dec 15, 2009)

Hoping it takes the "Major Impact" track and we get stuck in VT Sunday night. I've got plenty of beer and firewood for such an occurrence.
.


----------



## billski (Dec 15, 2009)

I think the bloggers at weather.com get more excited than we do!
"Wow look at all that cold air....... "
"I'm expecting this to be our biggest storm system so far this year"

Happily taking the world out of context.... 

I will gladly do the night-before-drive-up.  Standby KingM.... Riders?

Going to pay homage to my Ullr statue now.....


----------



## hammer (Dec 15, 2009)

Latest NWS discussion:



> .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
> VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WHILE WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THIS TIME...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH THOSE READINGS AT OR BELOW ZERO DURING THE NIGHT AND IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS/TEENS DURING THE DAY. WIND TRAJECTORIES FAVOR ANY OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF/LIGHT ACTIVITY ON THE OUTER CAPE.
> 
> THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR THE WEEKEND. FROM TIME TO TIME...VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ON THE EAST COAST AROUND THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE WILD SWINGS IN THE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT AS THE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME PROJECTING HOW THE POLAR VORTEX AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE INTERACT. FOR THE MOST PART...THE MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN AN OUT-TO-SEA SCENARIO WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS OF THE LATEST 00Z MODEL RUN...THESE MEMBERS INCLUDE THE GFS...PARALLEL GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST AND THE GGEM IS ALSO CLOSE ENOUGH TO GRAZE THE AREA.
> ...


----------



## Greg (Dec 15, 2009)

Translation: "We have no clue what the hell is gonna happen."


----------



## WinnChill (Dec 15, 2009)

I can see that the evolving pattern over the next week or two will be more favorable for one of these storms coming up the coast.  There is some high pressure blocking over Greenland which will be shifting westward and forcing a trough over us...we typically look for storms to flare up during the onset of this transition.  So I see the increased potential and it's been showing indications of it for a while.  However, I'm not a big fan of articles saying..."If the storm is close to us, we get snow...if it's far away, we don't"...yeah, no kidding.  I suppose a team who has the most points near the end of a game has a good chance of winning.

Anyways, just my .02.

Cheers


----------



## WinnChill (Dec 15, 2009)

Greg,

To a degree, we don't know the details (or course the devil is in the details), but we're just saying that the evolving pattern is more favorable to something big.  That's really all that can be done.


----------



## billski (Dec 15, 2009)

Greg said:


> Translation: "We have no clue what the hell is gonna happen."


... but the boss said the web site hits are down and we need to goose the ratings or they cut our budget....


----------



## bigbog (Dec 15, 2009)

Well it was 32F in Kingfield at 5pm with windchill bringing it down to 27F...so Sugarloaf should be definitely making snow starting tonight, then the colder temps are coming in tomorrow...right through the week(-end..I think).  Just tune/wax..and bring everything ya' gotrolleyes and book in northern NewEngland..noone should have any problems once you get up north..
With the wackiness of the weather systems this last 2 decades....the weather isn't that predictable these days...imho, not even with rows of CRAYs and IBM's supercomputers.  ..And agreed, from what one hears, and what it seems like = all they can do is predict from what _is already developing_..somewhere...y/n?

My Bad!..Greg..was this..*Translation: "We have no clue what the hell is gonna happen."*...with your other job..?..or was this about the weather..?..(just a little, little bit of humor)

$.01


----------



## WinnChill (Dec 15, 2009)

Yep, we'll get into optimal snowmaking temps overnight and all the way into the weekend--temps increase slightly by Monday though.  Although, summit temps Wed night/Thurs AM may be a little too cold for pipes...I've never worked mountain crew so not sure how real cold temps affects equipment.  Also, just FYI (not to split hairs or anything), but windchill is only a measure of how we feel when exposed to wind...it doesn't effect ambient air temperature.  Not to say wind doesn't help enhance snowfall--it does in upslope situations, etc.--but the windchill temp is just a comfort parameter.  However, a temperature that DOES have an effect on snowmaking is wet-bulb temperature...the temperature in between temp and dewpoint, or, the temperature at which you cool the air by evaporating  water (a cooling process) into it....or basically what the snowguns do by vaporizing water droplets.  Well, this has probably been kicked around the forum before--I'm new here so please excuse my blathering.

As for predictions, you can only forecast so much until the time of the event--you then go into "nowcasting" and making fine-tune tweaks as things play out.


----------



## Warp Daddy (Dec 15, 2009)

yada yada yada ~~~~~~~~~~~ the "weather guessers"  . E oops meteorologists  are at it again. Can't get too excited bout the noize  it'll snow when it does till then YAWN


----------



## WinnChill (Dec 15, 2009)

Alright Warp Daddy, here's one for ya (at my own expense)...

....so the teacher said to little Johnny, "Oh my Johnny, you got half the answers wrong on your test!"  Little Johnny replies, "Ah, that's ok Teach!  I'm gonna be a meteorologist!"


----------



## Warp Daddy (Dec 15, 2009)

WinnChill said:


> Alright Warp Daddy, here's one for ya (at my own expense)...
> 
> ....so the teacher said to little Johnny, "Oh my Johnny, you got half the answers wrong on your test!"  Little Johnny replies, "Ah, that's ok Teach!  I'm gonna be a meteorologist!"




Lmao  Hey WC  welcome to the forum  i meant no harm  you guys have a tuff time keeping US happy  

BTW heres one on MY profession :

If You can't do ------------TeaCH 

if you can't teach ---------------teach education.

If you can't  teach education --------------------become the college president


----------



## polski (Dec 15, 2009)

If I were Matt Drudge I'd be tempted to go with an






*UPSLOPE SNOW ALERT*​

Not that I'd bet a quarter on any forecast this far in advance, but ...

Latest NWS-Burlington forecast discussion eyes possible long-duration upslope snow event this weekend into early next week, draws comparison to 3/4/06 which produced 30-40" (!!!!) at Mt Mansfield. Scott Braaten sees "some similarities but this event will be nowhere near the size/scope" of "the benchmark of upslope events."

Meanwhile, NWS-Gray ME also sees precip this weekend in a cold NW flow, and then early next week monitoring that potential large coastal storm.

p.s. WinnChill, I really appreciate your perspective. I'm a wx weenie myself, won't deny it ;-). It's just pretty cool to spot the first signs of something potentially significant, especially on those occasions when it actually comes true.


----------



## polski (Dec 15, 2009)

The Sneak said:


> Mighty Ullr
> 
> Have I not more than tithed in the form of equipment upgrades? Have I not consumed in your name many beers darker than the permanent night of scandinavian winter? Have I not spread the gospel of pow? Have I not endured many an accursed, dismal fallow weather pattern devoid of your blessings? I beseech thee to look upon your followers with great favor come the sabbath, so that BEast may be rocking on monday.


What is it all the kids these days say?

Oh yeah.

This.

:lol:


----------



## billski (Dec 15, 2009)

It's not real until Al Kaprelian starts jumping up and down and squealing!


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 16, 2009)

Now the Weather Channel mentioned this as well. Well now its not going to snow!

PS: Hope my statement is wrong!


----------



## hammer (Dec 16, 2009)

Now trends from NWS are going towards a non-event... :sad:


> .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
> -- Changed Discussion --
> OVERALL...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
> EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOS TEMPERATURES ARE
> ...


----------



## 4aprice (Dec 16, 2009)

andrec10 said:


> Now the Weather Channel mentioned this as well. Well now its not going to snow!
> 
> PS: Hope my statement is wrong!



Seems like we're missing a bunch of good opportunies.  Most mets envisioned this period of time as a good set up for storms but the forecasts I'm seeing now are calling for cold and dry.  Thank god for man made snow.  This early season 2009/2010 has been a test of patience.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## billski (Dec 16, 2009)

scott had some interesting comments on skivtl

I do see some similarities but this event will be no where near the
size/scope of that one.  The March 4, 2006 event dropped 10" in downtown
Burlington, 14" at KBTV, 18" at Williston, and 30-40" of fluff on
Mansfield... most, if not all of it, falling overnight.  

In all my Mansfield/Stowe ski days, that one is still without a doubt #1. 
It is the upslope event that all upslope events are measured in my mind...
the forecast was for a dusting in the Champlain Valley and light/moderate
snows in the mountains.  Then all the sudden 1-2"/hr snows broke out in the
eastern Champlain Valley with 2-4"/hr snows over the mountains...and it
continued all night.  The NWS attributed it to the warm air advection from
the north (which is a very rare pattern) coupled with strong upslope flow


----------



## WinnChill (Dec 16, 2009)

Alex,

Yeah, it certainly is one of those pattern reconfigurations that have potential to deliver the goods!  But it's the ol "if a tree falls in the forest, does it make a sound"?  We can have a monster storm pass by just offshore and it would go unnoticed--but have it take a slight jog west and we get _blasted_.  Did we see the potential...yes--did it produce a storm...yes-but it snuck by just far enough to where it only effected the fishes.  Heck, this could happen all season with massive storms bypassing us by the smallest margin but it's not to say that it wasn't an active/stormy pattern.  It's a fine line--that's why the forecasts have been highly changeable.  I have to mention Accuweather's Joe Bastardi about the recent Houston snowfall where he mentioned you can forecast snow for _Houston_, but it stops just 20 miles north and everyone thinks you got it ALL wrong. 

But, hey, it goes with the territory--the "nature" of the biz I suppose.  And I'm not being defensive or trying to make excuses--just offering a little perspective, that's all.  I'll keep checking the latest model trends and keep you posted.  

Cheers!


----------



## Greg (Dec 16, 2009)

4aprice said:


> Seems like we're missing a bunch of good opportunies.



Actually, the two December events we got over-performed. Nothing major, but more snow and a slower changeover than forecast. I think the bigger one last week was forecast initially to go out to sea too and then the models brought it back as we got closer to the event. Hoping the same holds true here. Better than predicting something big and then the track goes out to sea, or worse up the Apps.


----------



## drjeff (Dec 16, 2009)

It appears more and more like this big, strong artic high pressure system that's moving in now, is just going to be a bit too strong to let the low coming up out of the gulf force it's way far enough West to make this a good storm for the East  (Nantucket and Maybe Martha's Vineyard excluded  )

The good thing is that the computer models seem to be mainly in agreeance that this cold air is going to be inplace for atleast the rest of 2009, and that overall the storminess of the US, while not an epic, major levels right now seems to want to be active over that time, and with the cold air in place and the Atlantic still being relatively warm, any low that moves its way in our direction the next few weeks will have potential to be a snow producer if the storm track and storm speed are good!


----------



## WJenness (Dec 16, 2009)

Sorry guys, but I'm pulling for this one to not be a coast hugger...

Driving down (Myrtle Beach, SC) to see mom for Christmas, and leaving early Sat. morning...

-w


----------



## Madroch (Dec 16, 2009)

Models trending better for the weekend-- who knows, maybe another overperformer.  Would love a few inches for Sun.  Just so long as we don't over-correct the track and end up wet here in the flatlands.


----------



## hammer (Dec 16, 2009)

WJenness said:


> Sorry guys, but I'm pulling for this one to not be a coast hugger...
> 
> Driving down (Myrtle Beach, SC) to see mom for Christmas, and leaving early Sat. morning...
> 
> -w


Understand...I'll be driving to NJ the weekend after Christmas and I'd like it to be dry then.


----------



## 4aprice (Dec 16, 2009)

WinnChill said:


> Alex,
> 
> I have to mention Accuweather's Joe Bastardi about the recent Houston snowfall where he mentioned you can forecast snow for _Houston_, but it stops just 20 miles north and everyone thinks you got it ALL wrong.



Joe Bastardi just picked up my spirits.  Video on the regular Accuweather site today. Recommended viewing.

Greg: I would agree that the two prior events over performed but the scuttlebutt I heard was that this period was going to be the Jackpot we want and to see the forecast this morning was a little disheartening.  Hey at least the cold has come and the snowgun offensive can resume.  I'm still on board the good winter train, its just testing my patience.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## mikestaple (Dec 16, 2009)

drjeff said:


> It appears more and more like this big, strong artic high pressure system that's moving in now, is just going to be a bit too strong to let the low coming up out of the gulf force it's way far enough West to make this a good storm for the East  (Nantucket and Maybe Martha's Vineyard excluded  )
> 
> The good thing is that the computer models seem to be mainly in agreeance that this cold air is going to be inplace for atleast the rest of 2009, and that overall the storminess of the US, while not an epic, major levels right now seems to want to be active over that time, and with the cold air in place and the Atlantic still being relatively warm, any low that moves its way in our direction the next few weeks will have potential to be a snow producer if the storm track and storm speed are good!



It will line up eventually - but this one looks like, at best, to be my ultimate nightmare.  Nothing in the mountains and a foot in my "near the Cape" driveway.  Bleeeh.


----------



## WJenness (Dec 16, 2009)

mikestaple said:


> It will line up eventually - but this one looks like, at best, to be my ultimate nightmare.  Nothing in the mountains and a foot in my "near the Cape" driveway.  Bleeeh.



Your fault for living in Deluxbury ;-)

-w


----------



## mikestaple (Dec 16, 2009)

WJenness said:


> Your fault for living in Deluxbury ;-)
> 
> -w



You mean "Cougar Town".?!?!?!  Nice!!!!


----------



## Glenn (Dec 16, 2009)

Still looks to be staying east...but it is only Wednesday....we've been in this position before.


----------



## polski (Dec 16, 2009)

The prediction I'm pulling out of my butt: This will be a Yawgoo Valley Mauler.

Meanwhile, dayside at NWS-Burlington doesn't seem as hepped up on Greens upslope snow potential this weekend as last night's crew was, but it seems you really never know with those things pretty much until the flakes start falling - and even then the jackpot locations & intensities can be quite unpredictable. Makes it tough for those of us 3 hrs drive from the typically "favored locations" but I pay attention nonetheless ...


----------



## polski (Dec 16, 2009)

btw Greens and Berks are getting a little upslope/lake-effect right now, per everyone's favorite radar. NWS zone forecasts say only a dusting to 2". Watch 1) some place get a foot of blower and 2) me kick myself for not being there tomorrow.

via Twitter as of half an hour ago:





> @BoltonValley @UpslopeSnow: snow event so far: started around lunchtime, gaining momentum now and bringing bigger flakes. Accumulation: a little under 1".


----------



## drjeff (Dec 16, 2009)

Some upslope snow started at Mount Snow a bit after 1PM - Been watching a cat due some pushing around of snow after phase one of the snowmaking assault on the 1/2 pipe in one of their cams 

http://www.mountsnow.com/livecamshot.php

Just ignore their base area cam right now as it's been frozen on the same shot for a couple of days.  The summit cam and the 1/2 pipe cam are refreshing every 30 seconds currently.

The way this high pressure system is moving has the currently winds more from a Northerly direction than the West/Northwest direction that tends to bring on a substantial upslope event.  Probably see a better chance of some "good" upslope winds in a few days as the core of the cold air move a bit further South and East


----------



## 4aprice (Dec 16, 2009)

According to the weather boards there is still some hope as the models are trending in the right direction.  Keeping my fingers crossed.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## drjeff (Dec 16, 2009)

polski said:


> The prediction I'm pulling out of my butt: This will be a Yawgoo Valley Mauler.
> 
> ...



I'm thinking that it will just be a "Rhode Island" sized mauling of Yawgoo   This artic high is a big strong one, and it seems to keep wanting to move a bit further East than many models have thought, which will likely act to keep the big modeled low that will likely be forming /moving out of the Gulf of Mexico in the next 36 or so hours too far to the East.  Plus, this atmosphere is DRY and lots of virga (cloud level precipitation but not ground level precipitation) will happen before any flakes that may try and fall over land will reach the ground


----------



## St. Bear (Dec 16, 2009)

Got to love Accuweather:



> How far north the storm will get remains uncertain at this time. Southern New England might miss out, but there is an equal chance they will get right into the thick of it. *In either case, we'll have that all resolved for you on Thursday.* Also on Thursday, we plan to provide you with a detailed snowfall forecast.



Boy, am I glad they're going to take care of it for me.


----------



## drjeff (Dec 16, 2009)

St. Bear said:


> Got to love Accuweather:
> 
> 
> 
> Boy, am I glad they're going to take care of it for me.



Hmm, I'm guessing that tommorrow we'll read something like.  "still a lot of uncertainty about the track of this storm to the point where we can't make a solid determination right now. Better check back on Friday as the storm starts to really develop" 

My guess is that if tommorrow (Thursday) AM, you see the that center of the cold air, and the lowest of the low temps are East of a line from say Buffalo down to Pittsburgh down to Knoxville, TN then this will be a minor/non event for essentially all of the Northeast with the exception of maybe the Cape and Islands.

If the center of the cold air is West of that same line, well then you start to bring the Northeast into play, and just how far West of that line the center of the cold air is will determine how much of the Northeast gets into play.


----------



## polski (Dec 16, 2009)

If no Yawgoo Mauler I guess that means no Sundown Slammer either, nor much chance of an ocean-effect Bradford Burial ;-)

Via Twitter seeing a second-hand report of 3" in 3 hours this afternoon at the top of the Bolton access road. From radar it looks like it's done in N VT though and winding down in S Greens and Berks.


----------



## Madroch (Dec 16, 2009)

SNE weenies on Eastern are real hyped over the 18z models and recent trends in general.  Recent experience (albeit with different setups) suggest some optimism..still fear the overcorrection with something heading up the hudson river valley...(some SREF models hinting at this) Yikes.  I don't understand any of this... but enjoy snow and would love to have snow cancel my sunday obligations and spend it on stinger pow bumps.


----------



## WinnChill (Dec 16, 2009)

There was a slight NW-ward trend, but be wary of the 18Z runs.  The 00 and 12Z runs use fresh updated info from the weather balloons...the 06 and 18Z runs do not, so it's best not to jump on board the weenie wagon, especially 3 days out.  Of course we'll be monitoring the trends throughout the next runs.

Cheers!


----------



## Glenn (Dec 17, 2009)

The local weather guy this AM said it was tracking a bit closer to the coast now...hmmmm.


----------



## drjeff (Dec 17, 2009)

Glenn said:


> The local weather guy this AM said it was tracking a bit closer to the coast now...hmmmm.



Problem is we need ALOT closer to get New England into play in a signficant way.  The best powday may require a road trip to the Poconos and points South from this one!

The upper level winds are going to take this storm essentially due East once it gets upto around the Virginia Coast instead of the "normal" track that would take it from the VA coast uptowards Cape Cod and Nova Scotia.

Now starting next week, the models are starting to suggest that the upper levels winds will be much more favorable for bringing a storm right up the coast and not having it make a right turn somewhere around the mason-dixon line


----------



## 4aprice (Dec 17, 2009)

drjeff said:


> The best powday may require a road trip to the Poconos



You're always welcome to come visit.:smile:

I'm not sure that this is done trending yet.  Bastardi had a good video on why yesterday.  Mt Snow may still be in the picture. (and I'm rooting for you because I'll be up there New Years)

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## drjeff (Dec 17, 2009)

4aprice said:


> You're always welcome to come visit.:smile:
> 
> I'm not sure that this is done trending yet.  Bastardi had a good video on why yesterday.  Mt Snow may still be in the picture. (and I'm rooting for you because I'll be up there New Years)
> 
> ...



While I always love some fresh pow at Mount Snow, I'm not too worried about them right now, nor should you be for New Years.

From Greg Fisher, one of their marketing/communications guru's on the Mount Snow passholder's site this AM:

"Another cold week followed by a beautiful weekend is in store. Right now new openings include Thanks Walt, Bear Trap, on Sunbrook (including quad & BT Double lifts), Freefall on the Face, Exhibition, Lodge, Charlie's Chase, on the Main Face, and at Carinthia - Inferno will be open without features and The Gulch will be open with a brand new park (closing Friday).

Christmas week we will be looking at expanding to Roller Coaster (old Un Blanco Trail), Ego, Drop, Link, Inferno for a park, and a few others. Weather continues to look great but no natural in the picture anytime soon.

Happy Holidays! "

Also,  mother nature may very well have a nice, white x-mas present for New England in store


----------



## Greg (Dec 17, 2009)

Fingers crossed. Maybe Sundown will be in the bullseye and we'll get our typical mid-December 1 foot dump.


----------



## WinnChill (Dec 17, 2009)

One of the midday model runs (NAM) jumped east again.


----------



## 4aprice (Dec 17, 2009)

WinnChill said:


> One of the midday model runs (NAM) jumped east again.



That's not good.  The NAM was spot on December 5th:sad:

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## drjeff (Dec 17, 2009)

It's ok though, looks like this storm cutting and running to the South will help to get both the Northern and Southern branches of the jet stream more into harmony for next week.  And that's a good thing!!


----------



## St. Bear (Dec 17, 2009)

drjeff said:


> It's ok though, looks like this storm cutting and running to the South will help to get both the Northern and Southern branches of the jet stream more into harmony for next week.  And that's a good thing!!



Pray that you're right, because I'd rather have a big storm next weekend over this weekend.

I'm sure the resorts are on my side too.


----------



## Madroch (Dec 17, 2009)

While it has been weak (so the weanies say) so far this fall/winter-- 12z Euro brings it well north-- maybe even gets Sundown in on the game????  

Maybe were not dead yet- just limbless....


----------



## Greg (Dec 17, 2009)

Madroch said:


> While it has been weak (so the weanies say) so far this fall/winter-- 12z Euro brings it well north-- maybe even gets Sundown in on the game????
> 
> Maybe were not dead yet- just limbless....



Sunday will be epic at the beloved molehill...


----------



## Madroch (Dec 17, 2009)

Makes sense actually... I have a family obligation on Sunday and can't ski... 

Hey Winn... show us some love for once....:smile:


----------



## 4aprice (Dec 17, 2009)

The squawk on Accuweather's forums (Eastern's forums are down) is that the Euro came in further north and west.  The trend could be our friend.  Any comment Winn?

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## St. Bear (Dec 17, 2009)

4aprice said:


> The squawk on Accuweather's forums (Eastern's forums are down) is that the Euro came in further north and west.  The trend could be our friend.  Any comment Winn?
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ




Just a little bit further north.


----------



## Madroch (Dec 17, 2009)

18z nam is a monster crawling UP the coast... so much so we might have dryslot or mixing issues... while never accurate it has DC at > 3" liquid


----------



## 4aprice (Dec 17, 2009)

Bastardi has another video out today and he thinks at least 6 for the Poconos and maybe more.  Not ground zero but we will take it.  And he's still bullish on the storm next week calling it in so many words a 2 headed monster.  The 2nd storm affecting further north.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## Madroch (Dec 17, 2009)

Okay- FWIW if anything-- wild 18Z NAM snow map:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE084.gif


----------



## Greg (Dec 17, 2009)

Madroch said:


> Okay- FWIW if anything-- wild 18Z NAM snow map:
> 
> http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE084.gif



Bullseye: Catskills!


----------



## Glenn (Dec 17, 2009)

What's the timing of this look like? The news this AM mentioned Saturday night into Sunday?


----------



## billski (Dec 17, 2009)

NWS Just updated their forecast and pushed the precip northward


----------



## drjeff (Dec 17, 2009)

Madroch said:


> Okay- FWIW if anything-- wild 18Z NAM snow map:
> 
> http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE084.gif



That's the key phrase on this one





Greg said:


> Bullseye: Catskills!



Just wait till next week


----------



## drjeff (Dec 17, 2009)

billski said:


> NWS Just updated their forecast and pushed the precip northward



The telling thing to me with this map is the lack of the red area.  This air we have in place (and will be in place over the weekend) right now is so dry that the northern fringes of this storm (and that's what we'll be getting at best) are going to have lots of it's potential moisture sucked up by the dry air columns aloft, and will have a good deal of the moisture aloft consumed as the air column gets saturated to ground level and the snow reaches the ground.






The problem with this one is the BIG kink in the jetstream around Virginia.  the cold air we have up here is just going to block the storm from getting close enough to get enough precip aloft to get an appreciable amount to the ground.

Now next week, the projected models have the jetstream in a much more favorable orientation!






if this thing pans out, you've got some gulf moisture to give it a kick start before it feeds off the atlantic on it's way north, and then nothing to block it from New England.  The biggest factor with this one in terms of snowfall accumulation will likely be more attributable to how slow/fast it's moving, not storm track


----------



## billski (Dec 17, 2009)

nws thinks its a fast mover. 

Day1




Day 2




Now look at day 2 >8 inches:


----------



## ZYDECORICH (Dec 17, 2009)

6:00 pm  NYC network weather said virginia mts. could get 2 plus feet. the one thing is that these guys all had that nervous look on their face for the tri state area. allways a good sign. VOODOO LADY STIR THE POT!!


----------



## drjeff (Dec 17, 2009)

ZYDECORICH said:


> 6:00 pm  NYC network weather said virginia mts. could get 2 plus feet. the one thing is that these guys all had that nervous look on their face for the tri state area. allways a good sign. VOODOO LADY STIR THE POT!!



I could totally see the VA mtns geting 2 feet from this one.  They'll have full access to a BIG amount of moisture with favorable upper level winds.


----------



## ZYDECORICH (Dec 17, 2009)

drjeff said:


> I could totally see the VA mtns geting 2 feet from this one.  They'll have full access to a BIG amount of moisture with favorable upper level winds.



i agree, now if it could just slow down and track a bit further west we'd be golden down here. they sat 100 miles of track west could mean a whole new situation.


----------



## mikestaple (Dec 17, 2009)

The blind dart throwers (aka weather guessers) in Boston are starting to hedge.  Definitely getting some down here near the Cape on Sunday (I know - worthless snow).  But, they are starting to get nerbous.  Indicating that if this were to move, it would be at least 12 inches of snow.

The next one could be the big one (Christmas surprise!).


----------



## ZYDECORICH (Dec 17, 2009)

nyc network stations calling for 6 -12 for jersey shore and long island 3 - 6 for the city and northwest suburbs sat night into sun.. maybe still more depending on the track. hopefully mt creek will get a nice covering on top of all the man made. going sunday and monday.


----------



## Glenn (Dec 18, 2009)

The local guy is calling for this to only go as far north as the Mass/CT line.


----------



## St. Bear (Dec 18, 2009)

NWS has posted an official Winter Storm Watch for Warren County, NJ:



> Issued by The National Weather Service
> Philadelphia, PA
> 4:40 am EST, Fri., Dec. 18, 2009
> 
> ...


----------



## Greg (Dec 18, 2009)

> URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
> 402 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2009
> 
> ...



5-10" in NYC? What a waste. Good for the industry though to get the masses really thinking about skiing. Perhaps that track will drift just a bit north and put the bullseye on Sundown....


----------



## drjeff (Dec 18, 2009)

Ski the Southshore dunes of Long Island on Sunday ([size=-4]or the poconos/VA/NC mountains[/size]) for the best face shots from this one


----------



## WinnChill (Dec 18, 2009)

Early midday model run (12Z NAM) in between 00Z and 06Z runs...about half a foot for Sundown before heading back out to sea--perhaps a few inches for southern NH and ME slopes (Pats Peak through Shawnee).


----------



## Greg (Dec 18, 2009)

WinnChill said:


> about half a foot for Sundown before heading back out to sea



 Works for me.


----------



## bvibert (Dec 18, 2009)

Greg said:


> Works for me.



Hell ya!


----------



## drjeff (Dec 18, 2009)

This storm and it's potential is almost comical to read about on the accuweather forums right now.  It's closing in on a 1000 page thread!!  Granted, a good chunk of the regulars there live in the mid-atlantic region, and pretty much will usually have a bunch of them getting all hyped and predicting "storm of the century" type events atleast once a month between November and April based on computer models 10 days out , but for this one, when it looks like those in the DC Metro area are going to get blasted, I'd bet that there's a couple of "sticky keyboards" happening   Mega Weather Porn going on!! :lol: :lol: :lol:

Still feel pretty good about the chances of all of New England getting a signifiacant white Christmas present from mother nature about a week from now


----------



## WinnChill (Dec 18, 2009)

Oh, I know! I can't keep up with those forums sometimes....like 20 posts a minute...it would take a day just to read through an hour's worth.  Ugh!  

Gotta watch that leading edge stuff for next week's system--with the trough axis just west and a Great Lakes track we'll be threatened with some front end mixing.  We'll see.  

Cheers


----------



## Greg (Dec 18, 2009)

Haven't looked at the Accuweather forums. EasternWX is bad enough. It's literally several posts every minute in each thread. Usually, I'll just jump back to the last page or two and try to pull some info out of it. Pretty funny. These guys are into it for sure.


----------



## 4aprice (Dec 18, 2009)

Man I need this thing to shift ever so slightly N & W.  Pocono's are right on the cusp of the precip.  Only looking at 1-3 now but close to at least 3-6.  According to NAM very sharp precip cutoff.  Cold air gives this thing a shot of over performing with good ratios.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## drjeff (Dec 18, 2009)

4aprice said:


> Man I need this thing to shift ever so slightly N & W.  Pocono's are right on the cusp of the precip.  Only looking at 1-3 now but close to at least 3-6.  According to NAM very sharp precip cutoff.  Cold air gives this thing a shot of over performing with good ratios.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



The cold air with this one is both the saviour and the bastard.  Where the moisture happens, you're going to see some pretty high ratios (atleast 8:1, probably more like 10:1 and maybe even higher) that will really let the fluff pile up (good chance of some Utah quality blower with this one), however that same cold air is going to fight like mad to block the moisture from getting in and getting all the way down to the ground.  Wouldn't suprise me at all if along the fringes of the storm if you see a dusting to an inch and then maybe 50 miles away you'll see well over a foot - almost in a sense like a Lake Effect Snow event.  Lots of dry fluff in one place, and then very close by, just a couple of flakes.  Definately not you're typical East Coast winter storm (this time week  )


----------



## WJenness (Dec 18, 2009)

Weather folk...

I've got to trek down 95 to Myrtle Beach, SC.

Was planning on leaving the Boston area early (5am-ish) Saturday morning.

Good Idea? Bad Idea? What's my best option here?

Thanks,

-w


----------



## wa-loaf (Dec 18, 2009)

WJenness said:


> Weather folk...
> 
> I've got to trek down 95 to Myrtle Beach, SC.
> 
> ...



Stop in West Virginia on your way down and ski the pow on Sunday at Snow Shoe!



> Snowshoe's forecast is calling for up to 20 INCHES in the next two days. That means you should get in your car and get up here NOW, because there's no better place to be snowed-in than Snowshoe Mountain.


----------



## drjeff (Dec 18, 2009)

WJenness said:


> Weather folk...
> 
> I've got to trek down 95 to Myrtle Beach, SC.
> 
> ...



Saturday the Baltimore/DC Metro area is probably going to get a good solid foot of snow   Do I need to say anymore.  In all seriousness, if you can leave NOW, do it, otherwise you're very, very likely to have road closures, gridlock, etc in the mid-atlantic region as they get walloped with more snow than their limited plows can handle

Best option, and even then it's not a great one, is avoid the I-95 corridor like the plague and get as far West as you can until you get South of the DC area, but even then, the VA/NC mountains are going to get dumped on too.


----------



## WinnChill (Dec 18, 2009)

WJenness said:


> Weather folk...
> 
> I've got to trek down 95 to Myrtle Beach, SC.
> 
> ...



Bad idea...really bad idea.


----------



## WJenness (Dec 18, 2009)

wa-loaf said:


> Stop in West Virginia on your way down and ski the pow on Sunday at Snow Shoe!



I wish... ski equipment is in Maine, and my poor dad who is coming with me would be bored to tears.

Thanks for the input guys, I'll have to discuss this with the family tonight and figure out a plan.

-w


----------



## WJenness (Dec 18, 2009)

WJenness said:


> I wish... ski equipment is in Maine, and my poor dad who is coming with me would be bored to tears.
> 
> Thanks for the input guys, I'll have to discuss this with the family tonight and figure out a plan.
> 
> -w



Sub $300 airfare on orbitz is looking really good right now.

-w


----------



## WinnChill (Dec 18, 2009)

Especially if you have family with you WJ, it would be huge safety issue.  Like DRJeff said, it'll be virtually impassable down there.


----------



## wa-loaf (Dec 18, 2009)

WJenness said:


> I wish... ski equipment is in Maine.



I think you need a second set ...


----------



## WJenness (Dec 18, 2009)

WinnChill said:


> Especially if you have family with you WJ, it would be huge safety issue.  Like DRJeff said, it'll be virtually impassable down there.



It'll be me and my dad...

Just talked to all involved.

Departure now scheduled for Sunday PM / Monday AM depending on storm impact.

I feel better now.

Now if only my skis weren't in maine...

-w


----------



## WJenness (Dec 18, 2009)

wa-loaf said:


> I think you need a second set ...



I left it ALL there (3 pairs of skis, two pairs of boots, almost all my gloves, my helmet, etc. etc) so I wouldn't have to deal with moving it when I move at the end of the month.

This weekend will be spent packing boxes I guess.

It's all good.

-w


----------



## drjeff (Dec 18, 2009)

WJenness said:


> It'll be me and my dad...
> 
> Just talked to all involved.
> 
> ...



Good move on the change in departure time!  I'm sure you'll get a kick out of the drive through the mid-atlantic reagion watching all the folks stare at the snowbanks with a dumbfounded look of their faces


----------



## mikestaple (Dec 18, 2009)

11am National Weather models have the Boston weather folks updating their snow maps.  The edge of this storm keeps moving further north.  The edge is now past Manch-vegas.  Of course, my 25 feet of vertical in the back yard look like it's going to hit the jackpot as I'm now in the  8 to 13 inch line.

So the snow line keeps moving north every 6 hours.  TV weatherguy this morning said the cold air really won't let the storm track much further north.  The storm's growing intensity is causing the snow line to continue its move north.  The bigger the storm - the more likely it is to increase its dump total and expand the area affected.  So a big monster off shore could be dumping on the smaller mountains of NH Saturday night into Sunday am.


----------



## KingM (Dec 18, 2009)

Man, how I'd love to see this storm just slightly north. I'm guessing we're going to see zero in the North Country, unfortunately.


----------



## St. Bear (Dec 18, 2009)

KingM said:


> Man, how I'd love to see this storm just slightly north. I'm guessing we're going to see zero in the North Country, unfortunately.



You guys will get more than your fair share.


----------



## hammer (Dec 18, 2009)

What are the chances of this being canceled?

Still no good for points north of Boston...



> URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
> 320 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2009
> 
> ...


----------



## Bumpsis (Dec 18, 2009)

Any snow south of VT, NH border as useful as the proverbial tits on a bull.

OK, partial retraction. If Blue Hills gets two feet of light powder, I'll ski it.


----------



## roark (Dec 18, 2009)

humph. We could really use some more natural up north. Well, maybe my first trip to Sundown on Sunday?


----------



## mikestaple (Dec 18, 2009)

The beast of little Rhodie, Yagoo Valley, is gonna get the goods!!!


----------



## Johnskiismore (Dec 18, 2009)

mikestaple said:


> The beast of little Rhodie, Yagoo Valley, is gonna get the goods!!!



You got that right!


----------



## RootDKJ (Dec 18, 2009)

> A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO
> 6 AM EST SUNDAY.
> 
> SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
> ...


----------



## Johnskiismore (Dec 18, 2009)

My friend who just moved into a slopeside condo at Snowshoe WV is pretty stoked right now!


----------



## Bumpsis (Dec 18, 2009)

roark said:


> humph. We could really use some more natural up north. Well, maybe my first trip to Sundown on Sunday?



I hear so much much about Sundown. What is this, some kind of a garbage heap in CT that got turned into a ski hill??


----------



## ZYDECORICH (Dec 18, 2009)

rootdkj said:


>



rock on root, i hope it gets even a little more west. Mountain creek should be pretty good for sunday andearly week.


----------



## billski (Dec 19, 2009)

This would be a nice storm to do a CT-NJ ski resort trifecta if it were not for such a high traffic/population density; It seems that in metro NY, rather than hunker down inside with milk and bread, a segment of metro-NYers enjoy being out and about creating massive traffic jams.

The silver lining is that all that precip is going to stick around for some time as the temps stay below the freezing mark.

Maybe all of us "up north" can load up with snow sleds, brushes, shovels, snow blowers and take a trip down south and make a little extra holiday cash?


----------



## billski (Dec 19, 2009)

For those interested in SNE and LI:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php

This is an interesting new product  animated snow totals on a time loop basis.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NTP&rid=dox&loop=yes


----------



## Tin (Dec 19, 2009)

Johnskiismore said:


> You got that right!



They have been making snow like crazy the past couple nights too, have 8 foot piles everywhere. It's going to be fun (all 245' of vert)... :-D


----------



## Greg (Dec 19, 2009)

roark said:


> humph. We could really use some more natural up north. Well, maybe my first trip to Sundown on Sunday?



Check it out. Right now there's about a 300' vertical stretch (on nice pitch) of shark tooth mogul piles. Calling for 5-10" by tomorrow so they should be fun. One little tree shot will be in play. Still a natural base in the woods and this particular spot gets some blow in. Real short, but not bad for CT. Gunny is supposed to open Monday, but there was a good amount of snow on it last night (thin at the top). Maybe we can talk them into opening it tomorrow with a thin cover sign. That would be sick.



Bumpsis said:


> I hear so much much about Sundown. What is this, some kind of a garbage heap in CT that got turned into a ski hill??



Yep. Exactly, so don't bother. :roll: We don't exactly want an attitude like yours here anyway...


----------



## snafu (Dec 19, 2009)

Bumpsis said:


> I hear so much much about Sundown. What is this, some kind of a garbage heap in CT that got turned into a ski hill??



This might rub a CLIT the wrong way...:-D


----------



## RootDKJ (Dec 19, 2009)

Looks like this storm is gonna be a winner for PA with 4-8 inches.


----------



## GolfingOwl (Dec 19, 2009)

RootDKJ said:


> Looks like this storm is gonna be a winner for PA with 4-8 inches.



Philly and burbs calling for 12-18".  Less as you move north but Blue, Bear Creek and Spring Mountain could fair the best.


----------



## SteveInCT (Dec 19, 2009)

Bumpsis said:


> I hear so much much about Sundown. What is this, some kind of a garbage heap in CT that got turned into a ski hill??



Wait.. Are you from Boston? You do know that Boston is one of the biggest landfill projects in the history of the US, right?

http://www.iboston.org/rg/backbayImap.htm


----------



## KingM (Dec 19, 2009)

billski said:


> Maybe all of us "up north" can load up with snow sleds, brushes, shovels, snow blowers and take a trip down south and make a little extra holiday cash?



Seriously, if I owned a plow, I'd be driving south for the next 48 hours. You could charge whatever you wanted to plow people out of their McMansions, make about four or five hundred bucks an hour for a couple of days straight.


----------



## billski (Dec 19, 2009)

KingM said:


> Seriously, if I owned a plow, I'd be driving south for the next 48 hours. You could charge whatever you wanted to plow people out of their McMansions, make about four or five hundred bucks an hour for a couple of days straight.


 
If kids weren't so "busy" these days, they could grab a shovel, go into town as a group and just walk down the street with their shovel over their shoulder. We used to make a wad of cash. We'd let them pay us what they wanted. Towns were best - small jobs, we'd get done in 15 minutes - sidewalks, dinky driveways, stairs. Usually they had never paid anyone to shovel before and were desparate to get it cleared. They almost always over paid us.


----------



## billski (Dec 19, 2009)

if  you look at this forecast map, even the island - block, nantucket, martha's vineyard are going to see  a whopping of snow.  Amazing


----------



## wa-loaf (Dec 19, 2009)

I'll be happy with the 10 inches that map shows for my area.


----------



## Bumpsis (Dec 19, 2009)

SteveInCT said:


> Wait.. Are you from Boston? You do know that Boston is one of the biggest landfill projects in the history of the US, right?
> 
> http://www.iboston.org/rg/backbayImap.htm



Sure, a small portion of Boston is a landfill, we just don't ski on it. 
As to Sundown, yes, I do understand the enthusiasm about the place, since it's within an easy reach of a lot of people and despite its small size, they grow some nice mogul fields. 

Yet, a lot of noise on this board about a 600 ft vertical hill and it's rather irrelevant to me and possibly others who's skiing is done up north.
However, with the coming snow dump, even a 600 ft hill can deliver lots of fun - so enjoy


----------



## St. Bear (Dec 19, 2009)

Just started snowing in NW Jersey.


----------



## powhunter (Dec 19, 2009)

Bumpsis said:


> Sure, a small portion of Boston is a landfill, we just don't ski on it.
> As to Sundown, yes, I do understand the enthusiasm about the place, since it's within an easy reach of a lot of people and despite its small size, they grow some nice mogul fields.
> 
> Yet, a lot of noise on this board about a 600 ft vertical hill and it's rather irrelevant to me and possibly others who's skiing is done up north.
> However, with the coming snow dump, even a 600 ft hill can deliver lots of fun - so enjoy



Bumpsis Come down for our spring mogul comp in april...It is the longest bump course youll ever ski...Ill buy ya a beer after

steveo


----------



## RootDKJ (Dec 19, 2009)

St. Bear said:


> Just started snowing in NW Jersey.


I was just going to post that. Sticking good too!


----------



## wa-loaf (Dec 19, 2009)

Bumpsis said:


> Sure, a small portion of Boston is a landfill



More that just a little bit:


----------



## ZYDECORICH (Dec 19, 2009)

billski said:


> This would be a nice storm to do a CT-NJ ski resort trifecta if it were not for such a high traffic/population density; It seems that in metro NY, rather than hunker down inside with milk and bread, a segment of metro-NYers enjoy being out and about creating massive traffic jams.
> 
> The silver lining is that all that precip is going to stick around for some time as the temps stay below the freezing mark.
> 
> Maybe all of us "up north" can load up with snow sleds, brushes, shovels, snow blowers and take a trip down south and make a little extra holiday cash?



hey bill, you could come down to mountain creek and hit barely any nyc traffic. take thruway south to 84 west and get off at florida exit, gps from there. i would expect some people sunday but monday will be empty. by the way your right, no kids shovel anymore. you could make a killing.


----------



## twinplanx (Dec 19, 2009)

ZYDECORICH said:


> hey bill, you could come down to mountain creek and hit barely any nyc traffic. take thruway south to 84 west and get off at florida exit, gps from there. i would expect some people sunday but monday will be empty. by the way your right, no kids shovel anymore. you could make a killing.


 whats goin' on at ol' Vernon Valley anyway? Have they been able to blow enuf for a good base. 8hr virus on Monday?


----------



## Bumpsis (Dec 19, 2009)

powhunter said:


> Bumpsis Come down for our spring mogul comp in april...It is the longest bump course youll ever ski...Ill buy ya a beer after
> 
> steveo



Thanks for the invite, I may just take you up on that. I keep an open mind for new places even if they are in CT,  and I just looove spring moguls.
It is unlikely that I'll be competing though, unless they have a "masters" division, meaning  a section for the over the hill jocks who no longer can hack it with the young of knee and quads of steel


----------



## ZYDECORICH (Dec 19, 2009)

twinplanx said:


> whats goin' on at ol' Vernon Valley anyway? Have they been able to blow enuf for a good base. 8hr virus on Monday?




ahh! vernon valley...one who remembers! yeah, from what they say they been blowing alot. they say 6 to 12 base. south is open, only a couple trails and north was suppose to open today. i friend i know said they were blowing alot on the north north side where indian pass and sayonara are. i'm going monday for sure. i'll give an update.


----------



## wa-loaf (Dec 19, 2009)

A friend of mine in Alexandria VA has 20 inches in her back yard and still snowing.


----------



## ERJ-145CA (Dec 19, 2009)

twinplanx said:


> whats goin' on at ol' Vernon Valley anyway? Have they been able to blow enuf for a good base. 8hr virus on Monday?



I drove by there on the way to Hidden Valley today and it's looking good.  They had guns going all over Vernon and South.


----------



## MommaBear (Dec 19, 2009)

Snow is FINALLY starting here in central CT.


----------



## RootDKJ (Dec 19, 2009)

6" of light powder down here now.  10" where the drifts are building up.


----------



## 2knees (Dec 19, 2009)

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=okx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no


radar has been green and blue for hours here and yet nothing is reaching the ground.  must be some seriously dry air down low.


----------



## Grassi21 (Dec 19, 2009)

started snowing in the 'nury about 30 minutes ago.  a nice dusting on the horizontal surfaces already.  starting to pick up the pace a bit.  looks like champagne bubbles.    not gonna be able to sleep tonight.


----------



## RootDKJ (Dec 19, 2009)

Fox weatherman says there might be lightning and thunder overnight???


----------



## St. Bear (Dec 19, 2009)

twinplanx said:


> whats goin' on at ol' Vernon Valley anyway? Have they been able to blow enuf for a good base. 8hr virus on Monday?





ERJ-145CA said:


> I drove by there on the way to Hidden Valley today and it's looking good.  They had guns going all over Vernon and South.



http://forums.alpinezone.com/showpost.php?p=491617&postcount=1

They had guns going on almost every trail.  I'll be there for first chair again tomorrow.

What's sad though, is that I'm not even excited about the snow because I know they'll just groom it to death anyway.


----------



## amf (Dec 19, 2009)

In south jersey the snow is almost up to the top of the rims on the tires of my Subie Forester & still coming down hard.  Had some thunder in the afternoon, when I went out to a nearby park for a few xc laps. The parking lot was unplowed, & the snow was about the limit of the car's ability. Kept feeling bumps under the tires, & realized I was driving over those parking space bumpers. Visibility was so poor I almost got lost getting out of the parking lot.


----------



## RootDKJ (Dec 19, 2009)

amf said:


> In south jersey the snow is almost up to the top of the rims on the tires of my Subie Forester & still coming down hard.  Had some thunder in the afternoon, when I went out to a nearby park for a few xc laps. The parking lot was unplowed, & the snow was about the limit of the car's ability. *Kept feeling bumps under the tires, & realized I was driving over those parking space bumpers. *Visibility was so poor I almost got lost getting out of the parking lot.


I lol'd


----------



## billski (Dec 19, 2009)

NWS just adjusted the forecast 3 hours later.  Apparently the storm velocity has diminished.  The accumulation amounts are still the same, but significantly more snow will fall during daylight hours.  Happy driving!


----------



## Beetlenut (Dec 19, 2009)

Whiteout in Wakefield,RI.  About 4 inches so far.


----------



## wa-loaf (Dec 19, 2009)

Actually the tv news has bumped the totals up a bit. We moved into the ~12" range from 10 earlier in the evening.


----------



## kingslug (Dec 19, 2009)

Holy crap..just stood in in a 2.5 foot drift thats piling up on the steps to my building...dry powder...and I can't ski on it...................man I hope Hunter gets some of this...


----------



## billski (Dec 19, 2009)

wa-loaf said:


> Actually the tv news has bumped the totals up a bit. We moved into the ~12" range from 10 earlier in the evening.


  makes sense: slows, sticks around longer...


----------



## JD (Dec 20, 2009)

kingslug said:


> Holy crap..just stood in in a 2.5 foot drift thats piling up on the steps to my building...dry powder...and I can't ski on it...................man I hope Hunter gets some of this...



I wanna see some LIBC pics.....I remember a sand quarry in Port Jeff that might ski pretty good...


----------



## long island boarder (Dec 20, 2009)

woke up to 24" eastern Long Island


----------



## RootDKJ (Dec 20, 2009)

10" here in NJ with drifts up to 4"


----------



## Greg (Dec 20, 2009)

Looks like a whopping 4". Get read for it:

B-U-S-T

At least for my area..... :roll:


----------



## riverc0il (Dec 20, 2009)

Watching NECN background via MattNoyes.net this morning.... the weather guys were on the air and you could almost feel them pulling for more snow so their forecast was not a complete bust! :lol: Which is funny because most folks watching would not want more snow and these guys essentially said flat out "I hope we pick up some more here..." or something along those lines. Usually they don't pull for snow that hard on the air. :lol: Looks like RI is going to take it for New England.


----------



## skidbump (Dec 20, 2009)

Nothing here in poughkeepsie/hyde park ...thinkin nothin in catskills


----------



## billski (Dec 20, 2009)

Mt. Southington CT is reporting 26-36"  - must be a feed reporting error.
If that's true, Sundown is gonna be rockin'.
Sundown has not reported yet. - suspect the 4" Greg reports is closer to reality...


edit: looks like they pasted in their snow depths into the new snow field.  oops


----------



## billski (Dec 20, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> Watching NECN background via MattNoyes.net this morning.... the weather guys were on the air and you could almost feel them pulling for more snow so their forecast was not a complete bust! :lol: Which is funny because most folks watching would not want more snow and these guys essentially said flat out "I hope we pick up some more here..." or something along those lines. Usually they don't pull for snow that hard on the air. :lol: Looks like RI is going to take it for New England.



Of course it's PC and acceptable to wish for a "White Christmas", as long as they take it all back day after.  :-?

I guess you can be a bit more cavalier on a Sunday Morning where there is no work commute.


----------



## riverc0il (Dec 20, 2009)

billski said:


> Mt. Southington CT is reporting 26-36"  - must be a feed reporting error.
> If that's true, Sundown is gonna be rockin'.
> Sundown has not reported yet. - suspect the 4" Greg reports is closer to reality...


There is an amazing difference between 2-3 inches and 2-3 feet. :lol:


----------



## skidbump (Dec 20, 2009)

Just spoke to people at belleayre...nothing


----------



## billski (Dec 20, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> There is an amazing difference between 2-3 inches and 2-3 feet. :lol:


 looks like they swapped the base amounts with new snow amounts.  26-36 was yesterday's base.  
Gonna be some  disappointed people if they take the number at face value!


----------



## nelsapbm (Dec 20, 2009)

Am very jealous. We're getting nothing out of this one. Oh well. The winter is still young.


----------



## riverc0il (Dec 20, 2009)

A complete and total waste if not even the CT boys get much snow out of the storm. IT would at least be cool for them if they get a foot. But more than a foot in RI through the cape? Lame.


----------



## billski (Dec 20, 2009)

*8 AM report*

Reporting at 8AM sir, from hysterial Lexington.

5" pow on the ground.  

Steadily accumulating at roughly 1" per hour since 5AM.  
Walked around a bit, does pack down with foot traffic.  Dog's got snow clogged in between her pads.

I'll post pictures with the Lexington Ruler after a reboot, my USBs all disappeared!


----------



## mlctvt (Dec 20, 2009)

billski said:


> Mt. Southington CT is reporting 26-36"  - must be a feed reporting error.
> If that's true, Sundown is gonna be rockin'.
> Sundown has not reported yet. - suspect the 4" Greg reports is closer to reality...
> 
> ...



I was going to say this could be real. I just measured the snow on my deck and it's 24" deep. NOT a snow drift either. I'm in Essex CT just 4 miles from the coast though. Unbelievable even more snow here than the '78 blizzard. 

I'm so pissed I left all my snow shoes, cross country skis, downhill skis at our place at Mount Snow.


----------



## BLESS (Dec 20, 2009)

i would guess at least 1.5 feet here in coventry RI.  drifts 3-4 feet.  still snowing hard.  love it.


----------



## mlctvt (Dec 20, 2009)

mlctvt said:


> I was going to say this could be real. I just measured the snow on my deck and it's 24" deep. NOT a snow drift either. I'm in Essex CT just 4 miles from the coast though. Unbelievable even more snow here than the '78 blizzard.
> 
> I'm so pissed I left all my snow shoes, cross country skis, downhill skis at our place at Mount Snow.




When I measured my front porch it only shows 23.5"so that's probably more accurate. Too bad this snow can't be transported north! Even so it's the deepest snow we've ever had in my lifetime.


----------



## billski (Dec 20, 2009)

mlctvt said:


> When I measured my front porch it only shows 23.5"so that's proabably more accurate. Too bad this snow can't be transported north! Even so it's the deepest snow we've ever had in my lifetime.


That is sweet!  Where ARE  you in CT?


----------



## billski (Dec 20, 2009)

*8am Lexington*

Lift-served snow measurement system:











we're at 6" at 8:30am


----------



## drjeff (Dec 20, 2009)

Not even a flurry at Mount Snow :-(  A decent amount of manmade powder where the guns were running last night though


----------



## mlctvt (Dec 20, 2009)

billski said:


> That is sweet!  Where ARE  you in CT?



Essex, CT . South central only about 4-5 miles from the coast.


----------



## MommaBear (Dec 20, 2009)

9" here in Hebron, CT.  No ruler pics - camera went to Mount Snow this weekend.


----------



## billski (Dec 20, 2009)

9AM, 7" at the stake.  Snowfall is now running 2" per hour.  

Town came by our street with a Komatsu WA-250 payloader with a blade on front.  Guess those pickup trucks with blades aren't gonna cut it?


----------



## polski (Dec 20, 2009)

Maybe I should become a meteorologist. Called this four days ago: 



polski said:


> The prediction I'm pulling out of my butt: This will be a Yawgoo Valley Mauler.



Their website says only that snowmaking got "help from Mother Nature" but in the Snocountry feed Yawgoo reports 20-22" and radar indicates it's still snowing. On their own snow report they say they'll be open 1-5 p.m. today.


----------



## polski (Dec 20, 2009)

> December 20, 2009 - The snow is still falling on Nashoba Valley Ski Area. The groomers went out early and moved the largest drifts to make smooth runs.


:angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: 

And for the record, yes I *do* understand why a feeder hill would do this. Nevertheless,

:angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry:


----------



## wa-loaf (Dec 20, 2009)

polski said:


> :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry:
> 
> And for the record, yes I *do* understand why a feeder hill would do this. Nevertheless,
> 
> :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry:



And they only got six, so it was probably drifted up in places and hard pack in others. My driveway was a good example of this. Wachusett is reporting only 2. Seems 495 is the cut-off line. Although it just picked up a bit here so we may get a couple more before this is all over.


----------



## ERJ-145CA (Dec 20, 2009)

We got about 5" here in NW Jersey.  Most of the snow was east of here but it's nice powdery ligt snow.


----------



## Tin (Dec 20, 2009)

Still snowing hard on top of almost 2 feet.


----------



## JD (Dec 20, 2009)

Great time for some CTBC...or RIBC.  Maybe some interesting lines near you....or some LIBC. I want pics!


----------



## skiNEwhere (Dec 20, 2009)

*snow accumulation*

14" so far milton, ma


----------



## 2knees (Dec 20, 2009)

about 6 or 7" at home near hartford but sundown had no more then 3" tops.

lame but skiing was still a blast.  little bit of snow really makes the bumps form up nicely.


----------



## Johnskiismore (Dec 20, 2009)

This is kinda funny, I've had a few phone calls and Emails with the exciting question, 'How much snow did you get up there?!?!'   As we were never forecast to get any snow, my sad response, none.


----------



## billski (Dec 20, 2009)

It's over.   
Nine inches at the Lexington stake.


----------



## billski (Dec 20, 2009)

Lexington is done at nine.


----------



## wa-loaf (Dec 20, 2009)

Maybe 7. Just eyeballing haven't measured.


----------



## Johnskiismore (Dec 20, 2009)

My parents are in Wellesley, have to call and see how much they received


----------



## marcski (Dec 20, 2009)

You guys did well.  We ended up only picking up about 7" or so.  Enough to take the girls sledding this afternoon. It was a very nice powder...although, quite windblown in most places.


----------



## SKIQUATTRO (Dec 20, 2009)

12" here on the North Shore of LI


----------



## twinplanx (Dec 20, 2009)

2'+ out here on the Eastern End of the Island


----------



## JD (Dec 20, 2009)

There's got to be SOMETHING steep out there.....Oh, I know....Head out to block Island tomorrow and ski the bluffs....you can hike back up on the boardwalk.....that would be sick.


----------



## millerm277 (Dec 20, 2009)

Somewhere a bit north of a foot here in Central NJ.


----------



## Smellytele (Dec 20, 2009)

Absolutely nothing here west of Concord, NH


----------



## wa-loaf (Dec 20, 2009)

JD said:


> There's got to be SOMETHING steep out there.....Oh, I know....Head out to block Island tomorrow and ski the bluffs....you can hike back up on the boardwalk.....that would be sick.



Polski got out:
http://forums.alpinezone.com/showthread.php?p=491816#post491816


----------



## ZYDECORICH (Dec 20, 2009)

twinplanx said:


> 2'+ out here on the Eastern End of the Island



i heard 20 in sag harbor. i would imagine 22 -24 in east hampton - montauk.


----------



## ZYDECORICH (Dec 20, 2009)

ERJ-145CA said:


> We got about 5" here in NW Jersey.  Most of the snow was east of here but it's nice powdery ligt snow.



mountain creek tomorrow. i always like the idea of skiing here before christmas. Is hidden valley open? might check that out. is it still called hidden valley? new owners?


----------



## ZYDECORICH (Dec 20, 2009)

twinplanx said:


> 2'+ out here on the Eastern End of the Island



where are you? i spend summers out there .maybe a brew at the talkhouse, turtle crossing? enjoy out there .


----------



## abc (Dec 20, 2009)

So... which mountain got the most?


----------



## billski (Dec 20, 2009)

abc said:


> So... which mountain got the most?


 From what I see, Yawgoo in RI at 20-22". Though I pause to call it a "mountain". 310 feet in *elevation* and 260 feet vertical. 
I suppose the Appalachians got the absolute most, but I don't think there is any lift-served.


----------



## twinplanx (Dec 20, 2009)

ZYDECORICH said:


> where are you? i spend summers out there .maybe a brew at the talkhouse, turtle crossing? enjoy out there .


 well I guess "eastern" is kinda stechin it. I'm in Moriches, not quite that far out. But I could always be talked into a trip to Montauk...


----------



## ZYDECORICH (Dec 20, 2009)

twinplanx said:


> well i guess "eastern" is kinda stechin it. I'm in moriches, not quite that far out. But i could always be talked into a trip to montauk...



 ahhh! Fluke country! Never fished there but i hear good things. 2 feet . Wow!  Christmas eve for us here up in the hills "they" say. I hope. Enjoy.


----------



## jerryg (Dec 20, 2009)

Mountains did get hit by this in ME/NH/VT. If someone says that they did, they're lying.


----------



## mikestaple (Dec 20, 2009)

16 to 18 of worthless snow down near the Cape.  Stopped late afternoon today.  Beautiful, light, fluffy powder.

At least the sledding was fantastic over at the local golf course.


----------



## billski (Dec 20, 2009)

*as expected...*

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/nerfc/graphics/snowmaps/sf1_today.jpg


----------



## polski (Dec 20, 2009)

Snowshoe in WV reported 24" Fri-Sat and another inch overnight last night. That's the biggest total I've seen for a ski area. Meanwhile, this TGR thread has a pic of a tele skier getting a near face shot at Whitegrass XC area in WV.

HIghest totals in NWS reports: 31.0 Quinwood WV, 28.0 Brownsburg VA, 27.5 East Patchogue (LI) NY, 27.0 Hot Springs VA, 26.3 at the NWS office in Upton (LI) NY.


----------



## polski (Dec 20, 2009)

ZYDECORICH said:


> ahhh! Fluke country! Never fished there but i hear good things.


Montauk = fishing Mecca


----------



## Glenn (Dec 21, 2009)

Back from Southern VT! It's very cold this weekend. 0" of snow! However, the storm kept a lot of people away from Mt. Snow Sunday.


----------



## polski (Dec 21, 2009)

polski said:


> :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry:
> 
> And for the record, yes I *do* understand why a feeder hill would do this. Nevertheless,
> 
> :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry:


p.s. someone on TGR reported hitting Nashoba yesterday morning and finding 1) very few other skiers and 2) nothing groomed, all pow. Just goes to show.


----------



## twinplanx (Dec 21, 2009)

polski said:


> Montauk = fishing Mecca


       MTK= Surfing Mecca


----------



## ZYDECORICH (Dec 22, 2009)

twinplanx said:


> MTK= Surfing Mecca



your both right. if i'm not surfing in amagansett i'm diamond jigging for stripped bass in montauk.


----------

