# Jan 24-25-26 2015 - possible significant coastal storm this weekend



## billski (Jan 20, 2015)

OK, I'll bite.  Now that the NWS is acknowledging something may be brewing, it's time to kick this into a new thread.  Latest I've heard is that the GFS and the Euro are in agreement here.   I'll put a smily on the thread so that dreams do come true


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## billski (Jan 20, 2015)




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## ss20 (Jan 20, 2015)

Let's go to Nova Scotia!


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## Masskier (Jan 20, 2015)

Lets keep our fingers crossed that this comes closer.


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## catsup948 (Jan 20, 2015)

I don't care if the coastal pain gets a foot of snow.  This needs to follow the trend this winter and move northwest.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2015)

Should point out this will deliver snow for the Poconos, Catskills, Berks if it pans out.  Odds of a dramatic northern shift (i.e. every computer model is wrong) would be pretty low by now.


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## mriceyman (Jan 20, 2015)

Looks like one for jersey right now.. I warned you to wait until the clipper came through tomorrow but you couldnt resist lol


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## ScottySkis (Jan 21, 2015)

Snow for Hunter and Roxbury NY please December was nice but that was a long time ago.


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## billski (Jan 21, 2015)

Canada snow map


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## moresnow (Jan 21, 2015)

billski said:


> Canada snow map



No thank you.  Let's move this thing 100 miles or so further north.  It's never good when I get more snow in my driveway than there is on the mountain.


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## Nick (Jan 21, 2015)

Ski Sundown it is! and wachusett!


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## hammer (Jan 21, 2015)

moresnow said:


> No thank you.  Let's move this thing 100 miles or so further north.  It's never good when I get more snow in my driveway than there is on the mountain.


+1


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## Puck it (Jan 21, 2015)

Anyone up for Ski Nantucket!!!!!!!  There some great lines off Altar Rock.


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## j law (Jan 21, 2015)

Looks like I might get to get the rust off my X country skis in Central Park this weekend!


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 21, 2015)

What a beast on the 12z EURO, drops down to 964 over Nantucket. It was also NW of previous runs.


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## catsup948 (Jan 21, 2015)

I've heard the lifeline at Blue Hill is pretty steep!


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2015)

Wow.  Now the Euro is as snoptimistic and the Canadian.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 21, 2015)

Bear Creek, anyone? Or maybe Blue Mountain?


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> Bear Creek, anyone? Or maybe Blue Mountain?



I rarely ever ski the Poconos, but if this is one of the rare times they don't get the football pulled out from under them, Sunday might be looking great.

EDIT:  Actually, Saturday night $35 tickets at BM, and it would be freshly fallen and with the added benefit of probably 50% of people being too paranoid to drive to the mountain in those road conditions.


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## catsup948 (Jan 21, 2015)

Euro still throws 4-6 inches up this way.  It did move nw.  Maybe that wasn't just the run but I'll take 6 inches right now!


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2015)

Interesting that the recently upgraded GFS is the only model this far south with the storm.   It's confusing.

On the one-hand, it's the sole outlier, but on the other hand, it is the only model that properly screws the Poconos.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 21, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Interesting that the recently upgraded GFS is the only model this far south with the storm.   It's confusing.
> 
> On the one-hand, it's the sole outlier, but on the other hand, it is the only model that properly screws the Poconos.



The new GFS is a disaster. It's going to take months in order for its kinks to be worked out. Right now its about as reliable as the NAM.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 21, 2015)

Boston Bulldog said:


> The new GFS is a disaster. It's going to take months in order for its kinks to be worked out. Right now its about as reliable as the NAM.



I want to believe...


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## bdfreetuna (Jan 21, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Euro still throws 4-6 inches up this way.  It did move nw.  Maybe that wasn't just the run but I'll take 6 inches right now!



Berkshire East will gladly take what they can get.


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## catsup948 (Jan 21, 2015)

bdfreetuna said:


> Berkshire East will gladly take what they can get.



I'm hoping we get something.  Trails have survived the rain storm well but any natural would be welcome.  I'll be there early regardless!


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## catsup948 (Jan 21, 2015)

They were sorta off for the last storm but here is the first call map...


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## ss20 (Jan 21, 2015)

Will I have my first powder day at Thunder Ridge???


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> They were sorta off for the last storm but here is the first call map...



He completely busted for many areas with today's little clipper too.  Couldn't happen to a nicer Dbag.   To be fair though, he stratifies his maps with much more detail than anyone else I've seen, which I appreciate (even when he wiffs).


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2015)

The first 00z is out, and the NAM goes OTS.  Yuck. 

 Not in its' wheelhouse yet anyway (that's what I'm sticking with).


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## steamboat1 (Jan 22, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> The first 00z is out, and the NAM goes OTS.


Are you a quarterback calling a play?


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2015)

steamboat1 said:


> Are you a quarterback calling a play?



If I was I'd be looking for a Hail Mary with the 00z Euro, the only model not out yet, because the other 3 are all heading east.


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## Cannonball (Jan 22, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> They were sorta off for the last storm but here is the first call map...



C gets 9-13"
D gets 4-8"
And the area sandwiched between them (south shore, MA) gets.....no forecast.


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## Bostonian (Jan 22, 2015)

Cannonball said:


> C gets 9-13"
> D gets 4-8"
> And the area sandwiched between them (south shore, MA) gets.....no forecast.



So based off that map - Berkshire East gets a good hit?  I am tempted for Sunday.


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## Tin (Jan 22, 2015)

Bostonian said:


> So based off that map - Berkshire East gets a good hit?  I am tempted for Sunday.



Next Tuesday-Weds is looking even better. And I have a bogo.  ;-)


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## Kleetus (Jan 22, 2015)

Tin said:


> Next Tuesday-Weds is looking even better. And I have a bogo.  ;-)



I normally don't ask for this but please no storm for Tues-Wed...I fly out to Denver that evening for 5 days at Breckenridge...haven't been out west in a long time...I had predicted this would happen when I planned the trip...unless logan gets nothing or rain...I'd be ok with it then 


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## billski (Jan 22, 2015)

Kleetus said:


> I normally don't ask for this but please no storm for Tues-Wed...I fly out to Denver that evening for 5 days at Breckenridge...haven't been out west in a long time...I had predicted this would happen when I planned the trip...unless logan gets nothing or rain...I'd be ok with it then
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



I often find that departures from a snowy airport are not a problems.   It's the arrivals that often get canceled.  There's always an exception, but that's my 40 years of flying experience.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 22, 2015)

Bostonian said:


> So based off that map - Berkshire East gets a good hit?  I am tempted for Sunday.



It   do would awesome first for  me


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## billski (Jan 22, 2015)




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## ss20 (Jan 22, 2015)

Kleetus said:


> I normally don't ask for this but please no storm for Tues-Wed...I fly out to Denver that evening for 5 days at Breckenridge...haven't been out west in a long time...I had predicted this would happen when I planned the trip...unless logan gets nothing or rain...I'd be ok with it then
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



You just jinxed it.  2ft of snow coming Tuesday.  Thank you.


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## billski (Jan 22, 2015)

Tim says a number of clippers next week.  It will all add up.  Magic on Saturday 1/31, Okemo 1/31.  Expecting pow daze


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## billski (Jan 22, 2015)

Looks like a Yawgoo kind of weekend for pow.


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## billski (Jan 22, 2015)




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## billski (Jan 22, 2015)




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## billski (Jan 22, 2015)




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## billski (Jan 22, 2015)




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## billski (Jan 22, 2015)




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## Rowsdower (Jan 22, 2015)

00z and NAM are calling a home run for the Poconos and Catskills. The 06 has gone insane and is calling for upwards of 14 inches.

This is the 120 hour projection though. Is there something else coming down the pike that we didn't know about? Because the weekend storm looks like 2-4 for the Poconos and 4-6 in the city.


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## Tin (Jan 22, 2015)

The accumulation for the Poconos and such is higher because they could see 4-6"+ Monday.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2015)

All is right with the world, the Poconos will have the football pulled away as per usual.






I cant wait for Camelback to put out a post this weekend along the disingenuous lines of, _"Come and GET some POWDER!!!!!!"_ after the 2.5 inches of snow they'll receive.


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## Tin (Jan 22, 2015)

They went further south east?


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## St. Bear (Jan 22, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> I cant wait for Camelback to put out a post this weekend along the disingenuous lines of, _"Come and GET some POWDER!!!!!!"_ after the 2.5 inches of snow they'll receive.



That would be showing restraint. I've seen lots of resorts that proclaim a powder day after an inch.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 22, 2015)

At this point I'll take what I can get. Two 3-6 inch events after another would be fine for this and next weekend.


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## SnowRock (Jan 22, 2015)

Not that I truly enjoy the place but a few in the extended family were hitting up Mt creek Sunday so this is at least well timed for me.


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## Tin (Jan 22, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> At this point I'll take what I can get. Two 3-6 inch events after another would be fine for this and next weekend.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 22, 2015)

Tin said:


>



Whenever I get laid I'll remember to refer to it as an "event" from now on.


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## fahz (Jan 22, 2015)

Matt Noyes forecast for New England  
http://www.mattnoyes.net/forecast/2...ces-a-saturday-storm-hits-your-community.html


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2015)

St. Bear said:


> *That would be showing restraint. I've seen lots of resorts that proclaim a powder day after an inch*.



That's my #1 conditions report pet-peeve.  The other is calling heavy, wet, cement snow = powder.


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## 4aprice (Jan 22, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> I cant wait for Camelback to put out a post this weekend along the disingenuous lines of, _"Come and GET some POWDER!!!!!!"_ after the 2.5 inches of snow they'll receive.



I don't care what they claim or what the marketing department does as the web site has been woefully bad at merely describing the conditions.  Avoiding more rain is my top priority.  On the other hand mountain ops deserve a standing ovation as they continue to make snow and improve conditions.  This was described as groomed on the web site last weekend.





Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2015)

4aprice said:


> This was described as groomed on the web site last weekend.



Why would they say that, so they can boost the number/percentage of trails they claim are groomed?  Obviously not groomed.


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## 4aprice (Jan 22, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Why would they say that, so they can boost the number/percentage of trails they claim are groomed?  Obviously not groomed.



Don't know why BG.  Those bumps had just been refreshed the prior days from the previous rain, and will most likely be refreshed this week after Sunday's rain. (and they were fun till the mobs took over in the afternoon (MLK DAY weekend)) They also want to get 2 other bump runs up and running when they get a break with the weather).  Just think marketing doesn't have it together.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Rowsdower (Jan 22, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Why would they say that, so they can boost the number/percentage of trails they claim are groomed?  Obviously not groomed.



Is that actually a selling point now?


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## billski (Jan 22, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> 00z and NAM are calling a home run for the Poconos and Catskills. The 06 has gone insane and is calling for upwards of 14 inches.
> 
> This is the 120 hour projection though. Is there something else coming down the pike that we didn't know about? Because the weekend storm looks like 2-4 for the Poconos and 4-6 in the city.


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## billski (Jan 22, 2015)

Tin said:


> The accumulation for the Poconos and such is higher because they could see 4-6"+ Monday.




.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
415 AM THU UPDATE... RELATIVELY SMALL CHGS WERE MADE FOR THE SUN
NGT-MON PD...OTHWS THE FCST WAS LEFT AS IS.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT THE SAME BIG PICTURE IDEAS...WITH A
PERSISTENT POS PNA PATN (WRN NORTH AMER L/WV RIDGE AND ERN NORTH
AMER L/WV TROUGH FEATURES).

AN EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FAIRLY STG
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM EWD THROUGH THE NERN/MID-ATL STATES SUN NGT
INTO MON. ALTHOUGH POSITION DIFFS REMAIN WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK (EC
FARTHEST S ACRS VA...CAN GEM FARTHEST N ACRS NY STATE...AND THE GFS
IN BETWEEN NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER)...ALL SCENARIOS WOULD BRING AT
LEAST SOME SNOW TO THE FA...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OVERALL
ACRS NY`S SRN TIER AND NE PA. POP/WX/SNOWFALL GRIDS WERE TWEAKED A
BIT TO BEST REPRESENT THESE IDEAS.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2015)

4aprice said:


> Don't know why BG.  Those bumps had just been refreshed the prior days from the previous rain, and will most likely be refreshed this week after Sunday's rain.



They must be relentlessly pounding whatever trail that is with snowmaking to have it look like that given the snow-starvation.



Rowsdower said:


> *Is that actually a selling point now?*



Sadly, yes.  It's what the hoards seem to want.  Or at least, it seems to be what the casual "go/no-go" masses require, which is probably why ski marketers boast of_ "laying down miles of perfect corduroy"_ etc.


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## billski (Jan 22, 2015)

Monday


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## 4aprice (Jan 22, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> They must be relentlessly pounding whatever trail that is with snowmaking to have it look like that given the snow-starvation.



Thus my comment about mountain ops.  Actually the mountain is in very good shape and they continue to make snow this week.  Uncle Bill's and Asp had bumps but the weather caused them to be taken out.  Get a break from the rain and I expect them to reappear.  Base depths on all trails are pretty good right now.  They can be criticized for many things but they do cover the mountain well

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Puck it (Jan 22, 2015)

These forecasts suck.  I can't look anymore. Someone had to say!!!!!!!


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## Kleetus (Jan 22, 2015)

ss20 said:


> You just jinxed it.  2ft of snow coming Tuesday.  Thank you.



I knew when I booked it that would be the driving force behind a good dump in the east...Normally happens when I have to go somewhere for business...unfortunately it seems to be the same on the rare occasion I actually fly somewhere for vacation...


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## SnowRock (Jan 22, 2015)

4aprice said:


> Thus my comment about mountain ops.  Actually the mountain is in very good shape and they continue to make snow this week.  Uncle Bill's and Asp had bumps but the weather caused them to be taken out.  Get a break from the rain and I expect them to reappear.  Base depths on all trails are pretty good right now.  They can be criticized for many things but they do cover the mountain well
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Completely agree.. got out there Monday for a few hours early, expected things to be much worse and was pleasantly surprised.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2015)

Puck it said:


> These forecasts suck.  I can't look anymore. Someone had to say!!!!!!!



Yeah, this is a pretty big letdown versus thinking 24 hours ago.  

At least for next week there will be cold air entrenched when the energy comes through.  

Here are some random mets snow maps for Saturday.


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## billski (Jan 22, 2015)

Why does the coast always have to win???   :uzi:


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## ScottySkis (Jan 22, 2015)

B east in MA will get snow for this Sunday or should I go to platty like orihanky planned never been to berskire e real want to check it out


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## catsup948 (Jan 22, 2015)

ScottySkis said:


> B east in MA will get snow for this Sunday or should I go to platty like orihanky planned never been to berskire e real want to check it out



Were in the trace to 2 inch range.  

Maybe the GFS will finally be right for once.  I doubt it.  Here is monday night.


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## hammer (Jan 22, 2015)

This storm will just make it harder to do stuff around home on Saturday...and make it harder to get out Sunday for skiing.  Ugh.

Any chance that this will go at least far enough north to help southern NH?


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## Rowsdower (Jan 22, 2015)

What's the discrepancy on the 96hr and 120hr models? Seems like this coastal storm drops at most 2-4 in the Pokes, so where is the rest coming from?


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## catsup948 (Jan 22, 2015)

If you're looking at the GFS it brings light snow Saturday night and a big time storm Monday.  That may be where the extra snow is coming from.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 22, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> If you're looking at the GFS it brings light snow Saturday night and a big time storm Monday.  That may be where the extra snow is coming from.



What is this big storm Monday? Is it real or is that too far out?


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## mriceyman (Jan 22, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> What is this big storm Monday? Is it real or is that too far out?



Too far out especially with another storm 30 before it


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> *What is this big storm Monday? Is it real *or is that too far out?



It's real, but I just ran all the 6-hour panels of the GFS and it doesnt seem like a big deal to me unless another model(s) depict it much bigger.   Any snow is good snow though!


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## VTKilarney (Jan 22, 2015)

Powder Ridge here I come!


.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 22, 2015)

Like I said, I'll take two small-moderate storms over nothing.


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## j law (Jan 22, 2015)

I may not get to play in it but I'll be very happy to see a couple inches in NYC


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## jack97 (Jan 22, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yeah, this is a pretty big letdown versus thinking 24 hours ago.
> 
> At least for next week there will be cold air entrenched when the energy comes through.
> 
> Here are some random mets snow maps for Saturday.



That might be enough to make bumps at Crotched and Nashoba Valley. And maybe soften the bumps at Sunappee.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2015)

More mappage...


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## ss20 (Jan 22, 2015)

From what I've seen, anything west of Hartford has almost no chance of getting 6 inches.  I'm not buying this 3-6 inches for NYC and New Jersey.  The area between Providence and Boston has the only chance of getting more than 6 inches.

Forget Yawgoo.  Powder day at Blie Hills.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 23, 2015)

NAM, 00z, and 06z runs still saying 2-6ish for the Pokes, more towards the coast, not that it does anyone any good. 

Monday storm still on the order of 8-14 inches in the Poconos.


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## Not Sure (Jan 23, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> NAM, 00z, and 06z runs still saying 2-6ish for the Pokes, more towards the coast, not that it does anyone any good.
> 
> Monday storm still on the order of 8-14 inches in the Poconos.



Would be happy with 8-14 , it's a clipper , hearing more 1-3


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## Rowsdower (Jan 23, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Would be happy with 8-14 , it's a clipper , hearing more 1-3



Sorry 8-14 total. So more like 6-8.


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## billski (Jan 23, 2015)

*Vermont perspective*

Here is a Vermont Perspective


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## Rowsdower (Jan 23, 2015)

Between these two storms the Poconos could make out pretty well.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2015)

Newest mappage

Noticing some folks are conveniently not even putting out maps, which is code for, _"there is great uncertainly, so I'm not going to put out a map but cower under my desk instead"_.


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## Tin (Jan 23, 2015)

Need this since next week's Mon-Tuesday deal has gone to crap. Wish they were just fluctuating but it really went OTS. Still looking like a 3-6" deal for the Poconos. Was hoping for a B-East snow day.


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## Tin (Jan 23, 2015)




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## ChicoKat (Jan 23, 2015)

Just moved to Thornton NH and I am depressed by the trend. Seems like last years pattern is repeating. Great early season start. Thaw in late December/early January and now storms staying south of the ski areas, tracking OTS. And of course cold temps. Any comments from the big shots here to talk me off the ledge are welcome.


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## Puck it (Jan 23, 2015)

Tin said:


>




I can see why he is saying "Massatoothless"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## billski (Jan 23, 2015)

I was thinking about Yawgoo on my Ski Safari list, now they're talking about a rain changover in RI.


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## billski (Jan 23, 2015)

ChicoKat said:


> Just moved to Thornton NH and I am depressed by the trend. Seems like last years pattern is repeating. Great early season start. Thaw in late December/early January and now storms staying south of the ski areas, tracking OTS. And of course cold temps. Any comments from the big shots here to talk me off the ledge are welcome.



maybe your move to Thornton caused this mess.  You might reconsider your move


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## Tin (Jan 23, 2015)

I'd hit Blue Hill billski.


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## CoolMike (Jan 23, 2015)

Crotched midnight madness on Saturday should be really good.


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## gladerider (Jan 23, 2015)

what does this mean to hunter on sunday?


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## ScottySkis (Jan 23, 2015)

gladerider said:


> what does this mean to hunter on sunday?



Hope non rain. Want go to platty Sunday


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## billski (Jan 23, 2015)

gladerider said:


> what does this mean to hunter on sunday?


   I don't think you'll know until show time.  Check in tomorrow morning.


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## SnowRock (Jan 23, 2015)

GIven I am going anyway... happy to see that mt creek might be in a bit of a bulls eye for this one


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## billski (Jan 23, 2015)

CoolMike said:


> Crotched midnight madness on Saturday should be really good.


  Been there.  Need another souvenir pin.   
:roll:


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## Rowsdower (Jan 23, 2015)

gladerider said:


> what does this mean to hunter on sunday?



Not much. Might pick up a couple inches at most. It'll still be a nice day though.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2015)

I love nuance.


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## vermonter44 (Jan 23, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> I love nuance.



Wow, they really went crazy with the colors on this one. 
Looks like 2-4 here in SNJ, which I'll take, always nice to have snow on the ground


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## Not Sure (Jan 23, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> I love nuance.



This chart looks familiar ....http://www.paintbynumberkits.com/


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2015)

Here's the latest Euro snow output, which is essentially a now-cast map.  Seems to be outputting on the higher end of estimates.


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## ss20 (Jan 23, 2015)

I can't wait to go to work tomorrow!!!  Paid powder day!


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## prsboogie (Jan 23, 2015)

Tin said:


>



I always wondered what the person who did the weather alerts looked like. I try really hard to be a good person but I cannot stop laughing at ^^^THIS!!! Massatoothettes


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## podunk77 (Jan 24, 2015)

prsboogie said:


> I always wondered what the person who did the weather alerts looked like. I try really hard to be a good person but I cannot stop laughing at ^^^THIS!!! Massatoothettes



Fox's latest budget cutting move


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## ScottySkis (Jan 24, 2015)

Mountain creek got 10 inches so far hope some from here enjoy powder day their today. There staying open to 10/pm today instead of 9?


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## catsup948 (Jan 24, 2015)

Boy this thing is a fast mover.  We're finally getting moderate snow fall but I doubt we get more than a couple inches.


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## Tin (Jan 24, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Boy this thing is a fast mover.  We're finally getting moderate snow fall but I doubt we get more than a couple inches.



Enough to get the Lift Line open? lol

What is going on with Mon-Tues? Euro has it back, CMC and GFS have the usual SE issue, looks bigger than this event but not much talk.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 24, 2015)

Shawnee reported 7".  I got about 6" here in nw/c NJ.  Looks pretty outside.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 24, 2015)

Tin said:


> What is going on with Mon-Tues? Euro has it back, CMC and GFS have the usual SE issue, looks bigger than this event but not much talk.



Sadly it's too far east to do much good for ski country.  Unless you're into cross country that is. Boston and Cape Cod etc.. will get walloped if the Euro is right.


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## Tin (Jan 24, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Sadly it's too far east to do much good for ski country.  Unless you're into cross country that is. Boston and Cape Cod etc.. will get walloped if the Euro is right.



Yup, I'm thinking about cancelled classes more than anything. Wouldn't mind seeing the southern areas get some snow as they have gotten nadda this year. Southern NH's biggest event was before most places opened in early December.

Would be pretty amazing, go to bed with flurries three days out and wake up to maps and models calling for a blizzard. Going wild for 1/30 and 2/1 too.


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## MadMadWorld (Jan 26, 2015)

Obnoxious Satan's Stairway POVs in 3....2...1....


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