# The Official 12/3-12/4 Storm Discussion Thread



## Zand (Nov 29, 2006)

Looks like mainly an SE NE event, but could get a decent amount in the interior as well. Still 5 days away so we'll see what happens.


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## bassist286 (Nov 29, 2006)

i'll have to check it out...


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## bassist286 (Nov 29, 2006)

just looked, it seems that it's not going to b very strong and judging by the temps. it will probably just rain. but then again. i'd live some snow


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## ajl50 (Nov 29, 2006)

I think this storm would hit the catskills, mass, conn, southern (very southern) VT and down east maine. 
In other news this storm is one that I actually don't want to see show up on 12/4-5. I have a law school final on the 5th and I really don't want to have to move it. Accordingly there is a 100 percent chance that we'll have this storm.


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## Tin Woodsman (Nov 29, 2006)

This afternoons disco out of BTV sounded promising, looking at some light snow in the promised land Monday/Monday night and then a clipper coming down Wednesday.  Me likey.  

I'm thinking that from the time the rain turns to snow Friday through the time the clipper comes through, I won't be surprised for some sweet spots to receive 12-18" total.  Might not be enough to open natural terrain to the general public, but certainly enough to make it look like winter again - and the consistently cold temps won't hurt either for snowmaking.


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## thebigo (Nov 29, 2006)

Just a procedural question here:

What exactly has to happen for this thread to become 'The official 12/3 - 12/4 storm thread'?

:lol:


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## Zand (Nov 29, 2006)

More confidence from the weathermen and having the storm within 2 or 3 days. Basically when the storm looks more likely to hit.


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## Zand (Nov 29, 2006)

8:30 NWS Taunton update:

MOVING ONTO NEXT MON...18Z GFS HAS DONE AN ABOUT FACE AND IS FARTHER
OFFSHORE THAN EARLIER RUNS. IT IS ALSO ON EASTERN ENVELOPE OF
SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES BUT ACTUALLY MATCHES UP
DECENTLY WITH 18Z MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN. WHILE MANY OFTEN DO
NOT PUT MUCH FAITH IN THESE OFF HOUR RUNS...IT DOES HAVE SUPPORT
FROM 12Z ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE 12Z UKMET. WHILE THIS FARTHER
OFFSHORE TRACK WOULD HAVE LESS OF A WIDESPREAD IMPACT ON SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH ITS EFFECTS MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO RI AND SE
MA...ALL MODELS DO SHOW PRESENCE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH WHICH MAY
HELP PRECIPITATION EXPAND A BIT FARTHER INLAND. NO DOUBT A MORE
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WOULD ALSO BE A COLDER ONE...SO CURRENT FORECAST
OF CHANCE OF SNOW IN INTERIOR AND CHANCE RAIN/SNOW CLOSER TO COAST
REMAINS VALID. MORE LATER AFTER 00Z MODEL ASSESSMENT.


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## Phildozer (Nov 30, 2006)

Could we save the "Official" designation/discussion until the storm is only a few days away?

Discussing a "Storm" that's five days out seems a bit premature.


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## Zand (Nov 30, 2006)

Theres no official title to this thread.


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## ajl50 (Nov 30, 2006)

There is no need for a title to this thread. Only the fishes are skiing with this storm. It's a  positive NAO storm that slides right off the coast and maybe just maybe hammers cape cod.


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## kingslug (Nov 30, 2006)

http://www.weather.com/outlook/heal...ahoo&cm_pla=forecastpage&cm_cat=www.yahoo.com

This looks good to me!


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## Zand (Dec 1, 2006)

Update on Monday: they still don't know. Models are still all over the place. NAM has it plastering all of New England, GFS has it barely grazing Cape Cod. Either way, a shortwave is coming through so we will see some flakes, but we'll just have to keep watching the coastal storm.


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## Zand (Dec 1, 2006)

Another update: Most models are now showing this one plastering New England. Of course it could change back just as fast, but it looks much more imminent now.


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## ajl50 (Dec 1, 2006)

My last post in this thread cancel. I don't know anything with this low pressure system. if the models miss by as much as they did on this current midwest storm, nyc to boston will get rain while the mountains will get plastered. 
Nobody can read this pattern AT ALL. 
wake up and look outside- it's the best we have with these wild weather patterns.


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## Zand (Dec 2, 2006)

Looking like a pretty good chance of precip now, although how much is still uncertain. NW of the I-95 corridor should be all snow, along the I-95 corridor should be a mix, and Cape Cod should see mainly rain with a short changeover possible at the end. Also looking like snow is possible down through CT, SE NY, NJ, and all the way down to DC. The mountains may or may not take part in this as it is uncertain how far the precip shield will spread. However, if anything makes it that far NW, it should be light and not much for accumulation. A slight shift in the storm track could mean a major accumulation or none at all. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile, since this storm is only 2 days away and looks very likely, I think its time to make the topic "official".


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