# Week of March 3rd to 9th



## billski (Mar 4, 2013)

Hey Winnchill,
Are you on board with with what the NWS is claiming (drizzle tonight) pretty much up and down the green mountain spine?  Seems like a stretch, especially with the low probs.

THE FORECAST FOR BREAD LOAF MOUNTAIN, VERMONT AT 3,835 FT: LAST UPDATED AT 624 PM EST MON MAR 04 2013  .TONIGHT...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. A* CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE*. LOW AROUND 13. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 BELOW.  .TUESDAY...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...THEN SUMMITS BECOMING IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AROUND 23. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE MORNING... BECOMING LIGHT WINDS. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 1 BELOW.  .TUESDAY NIGHT...SUMMITS IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. LOW AROUND 19. LIGHT WINDS.  .WEDNESDAY...SUMMITS IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. HIGH AROUND 23. LIGHT WINDS.
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discussion:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 927 PM EST MONDAY...ONLY NOISE-LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/MIN TEMP DATASETS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BLENDED CURRENT FORECAST IN WITH THE LATEST 01Z LAMP DATA WHICH APPEARED TO CAPTURE CURRENT SITUATION FAIRLY WELL. WITH WARM THERMAL ADVECTION BEGINNING ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND WITH CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL ESSENTIALLY HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY FLUCTUATE A FEW DEGREES UP/DOWN HERE AND THERE THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY. *STILL LOOKING AT SCT/NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL.*..BUT PRIOR FCST HAD THIS COVERED WELL WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 5, 2013)

Thank you Billski for asking this question.

The great forecaster we are lucky to have from snowforecast.com, are all Catskills in for snow, I join in the ask the weather guy weather it will snow on hills I like to ski, that is terrible.


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## WinnChill (Mar 5, 2013)

billski said:


> Hey Winnchill,
> Are you on board with with what the NWS is claiming (drizzle tonight) pretty much up and down the green mountain spine?  Seems like a stretch, especially with the low probs.
> 
> THE FORECAST FOR BREAD LOAF MOUNTAIN, VERMONT AT 3,835 FT: LAST UPDATED AT 624 PM EST MON MAR 04 2013  .TONIGHT...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. A* CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE*. LOW AROUND 13. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 BELOW.  .TUESDAY...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...THEN SUMMITS BECOMING IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AROUND 23. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE MORNING... BECOMING LIGHT WINDS. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 1 BELOW.  .TUESDAY NIGHT...SUMMITS IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. LOW AROUND 19. LIGHT WINDS.  .WEDNESDAY...SUMMITS IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. HIGH AROUND 23. LIGHT WINDS.
> ...



sorry, I didn't see this till this morning.  We expected snow showers for the hills/mtns--drizzle would be a valley thing with surface temps creeping just above freezing today.


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## billski (Mar 5, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> sorry, I didn't see this till this morning.  We expected snow showers for the hills/mtns--drizzle would be a valley thing with surface temps creeping just above freezing today.



Thanks Winnchill.  What do you think of the NWS BTW mountain point forecasts?  I think it's misleading to provide valley information for what is ostensibly a summit.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/mountain/point/

This is where I pulled the above reports from.

ty!


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## billski (Mar 5, 2013)

THIS

THE FORECAST FOR BREAD LOAF MOUNTAIN, VERMONT AT 3,835 FT: LAST UPDATED  AT 624 PM EST MON MAR 04 2013  .TONIGHT...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. A* CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE*.

is what I'm talking about.


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## billski (Mar 5, 2013)

*Quiet week ahead*

According to snowforecast.com and nws, it looks like northern new england will be quiet (weather wise) this week.  Looks like a great week and weekend to be skiing.


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## Cannonball (Mar 5, 2013)

Hmmmm, wasn't that forecast for last night?  So I guess the question is *DID *it happen?


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## WinnChill (Mar 5, 2013)

billski said:


> Thanks Winnchill.  What do you think of the NWS BTW mountain point forecasts?  I think it's misleading to provide valley information for what is ostensibly a summit.
> 
> http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/mountain/point/
> 
> ...



They're good at what they do.  They mentioned some warm air aloft working in--"warm thermal advection"--so that would cause some melting and then freezing drizzle.  I just didn't see much in the data to mention it, that's all.


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## billski (Mar 5, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> They're good at what they do.  They mentioned some warm air aloft working in--"warm thermal advection"--so that would cause some melting and then freezing drizzle.  I just didn't see much in the data to mention it, that's all.



Ah, and you are good at what you do - looking at weather about 2000 feet!


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