# January 2nd - 3rd storm



## BenedictGomez (Dec 28, 2013)

This one is potentially fairly impressive, and given all the models now "see" it, I figured I'd start a monitoring thread.

Submitted for your viewing pleasure, today's 12z GFS.  Keep in mind these maps default at 10:1, so the snowfall totals might be a bit better than this map given the cold air expected.


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## mulva (Dec 28, 2013)

It's still a little early but I hope this pans out.  We have a family trip at K from the 2nd - 5th to start our season.  With this solution, tomorrow night's hit and good snowmaking conditions all throughout; it's all coming together nicely!

Thanks for the map!  I've been trying to make sense of the people on Americanwx but 80% of the posts are either over my head, inside jokes or drama.  This map is all I need.

Keeping fingers crossed!


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## Rowsdower (Dec 28, 2013)

This would be awesome considering we're getting rain again this weekend. So a week of snowmaking and topping it off with a decent natural snowfall would be excellent.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 28, 2013)

mulva said:


> It's still a little early but I hope this pans out........Thanks for the map!



It's definitely too early, but given all the models "see".....well..... something, I felt it wasnt too early to make a thread.  

The interesting thing if you've been watching this for the last 5 days is that it has dramatically come south, as this thing was over Canada back then.  If you're a "trend is my friend" believer in northeast snowstorm map-watching, then the bullseye might be projected to be south of where this is depicted.  Lets just hope it doesnt go any farther east!


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## Savemeasammy (Dec 28, 2013)

It's never too early to get excited about a potential storm!


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## ScottySkis (Dec 28, 2013)

I loving this thread.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 28, 2013)

This Euro map just out is good too.  

And considering the Euro is Mike Tyson to the US government's Glass Joe, it's another good sign.


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## 4aprice (Dec 28, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> This Euro map just out is good too.
> 
> And considering the Euro is Mike Tyson to the US government's Glass Joe, it's another good sign.



We get that and even the Pocono's will be rockin.  The base is down, add natural to it and we are back to where we were before Christmas.  Skied today and considering what had happened it wasn't too bad.  Decent bumps on a couple of trails at CBK.  Nice to have them up so early.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## vermonter44 (Dec 28, 2013)

Even looks like 3-4 inches here in South Jersey!

Really hope it pans out!


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## catsup948 (Dec 28, 2013)

One would hope the very cold air doesn't push this too far south.  This kind of storm would be jackpot for ski country.  Especially the catskills and the southern greens.

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## gladerider (Dec 28, 2013)

bring it!


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 29, 2013)

The 12z Euro shifted the snowfall *WAY* far north from yesterday.

If that's the solution, the map would literally be the "dream scenario"  for all of ski country, from Cats to Dax to VT and NH and ME.  The map  basically has the axis of the heavy snowfall cutting on a perfect path  through pretty much every resort, lol.  Shows 10" - 16" pretty much  everywhere, max output = 20.5".

Except the Poconos, who'd get screwed.....as always.  

It's only the operational model though, so I'd wait to see the ensemble  depiction when it comes out to see if that substantial jog north is an  outlier or not, but I'd be pretty excited for northeaster skiers if this  12z map happens!


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## catsup948 (Dec 29, 2013)

Long duration storm.  Starts Wednesday night!  There are hints at snow for early next week too.  Lots of cold throughout. Big winter incoming!

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## BenedictGomez (Dec 30, 2013)

GFS and Canuck starting to bring this thing east.  Great for Boston and coastal towns, not so much for ski-country.  

Hopefully the King stays the course tonight and wallops the mountains, should be out any minute now.







LATE NIGHT EDIT: And the op Euro maintains a giant northeastern blizzard.   Wow, quite a major disparity now between the Euro and the GFS+Canadian models which push this thing east, and the Euro which basically is a best case scenario where everything goes perfectly.   Off to bed.


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## mriceyman (Dec 30, 2013)

That would be nice


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## billski (Dec 30, 2013)

nws
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EST MON DEC 30 2013
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...AND THEN OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN THE PRODUCTION OF A DRY FLUFFY
SNOW...AND NOT A HEAVY WET SNOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LONG DURATION
OF THIS EVENT...A SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY BY
FRIDAY. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...THEN A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS WEEK.


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## Savemeasammy (Dec 30, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> GFS and Canuck starting to bring this thing east.  Great for Boston and coastal towns, not so much for ski-country.
> 
> Hopefully the King stays the course tonight and wallops the mountains, should be out any minute now.



Damn.  I like this.  


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## aenshech (Dec 30, 2013)

Finally a storm to start the season properly

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## Cornhead (Dec 30, 2013)

Sweet, I'm off Friday, Yay! Hope it pans out, high of 3° on Friday, brrrr. If I'm skiing pow, I won't care.


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## MadMadWorld (Dec 30, 2013)

I can't bring myself to get excited. If for some reason snow does fall, I will be skiing somewhere.


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## WJenness (Dec 30, 2013)

Picking up my powder boards from REI today...

If anyone needs me, I'll be hiding in the mountains.


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 30, 2013)

Maybe I'll finally get my skis tuned for this one... Naaaa... I bet I only get 3".


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## bigbog (Dec 30, 2013)

Another one on top of what we got yesterday will be $$$ for any resort plus the off-resort terrain up here.


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## aenshech (Dec 30, 2013)

I was at mountain creek yesterday and it was a disaster. Rain didn't stop and got soaked through and through. The snow became like slush

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## wa-loaf (Dec 30, 2013)

Matt Noyes:



> *It's very likely to snow Thursday in New England, not only  owing to the developing storm, but also owing to the predicted northeast  wind off the Atlantic Ocean into an antecedent arctic airmass.*
> *Temperatures Thursday are unlikely to exceed the teens for highs as snow falls into our arctic air.*
> *A six inch or greater snowfall seems quite likely for Southern New England.*
> *The average snowfall from similar atmospheric setups in  history has yielded an average of 6-10" of snow, so that's a good  starting point for Southern New England.*
> ...





> So...where are we left for Thursday into Friday?  Overall, low-end  guidance supports a 6-12" snowfall for Southern New England, with very  little in Northern New England.  High-end guidance supports a couple of  feet for much of New England in an all-out blizzard.



http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_englan...MATTNOYES.NET+-+NEW+ENGLAND+WEATHER+ANALYSIS)


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 30, 2013)

The US government model (GFS) is out and it caved to the Euro as per usual.

Though the GFS brings the snow WAY far south, which wouldnt be good for ski country, BUT the GFS tends to be too south with these winter storms so in a way it's almost a good sign for ski country if that makes sense.

At any rate, now every major model's guidance is clearly showing a *rather big snowstorm* for this time period, only the path and jackpot zone is argued now.


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## skifree (Dec 30, 2013)

looks like cold and fluffy. have to get in position for this one!


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## JDMRoma (Dec 30, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> The US government model (GFS) is out and it caved to the Euro as per usual.
> 
> Though the GFS brings the snow WAY far south,



 Hmm what are you saying....I should bring my ski's to work with me to hit up Blue hills ?
It better go North....


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 30, 2013)

JDMRoma said:


> Hmm *what are you saying*....I should bring my ski's to work with me to hit up Blue hills ?
> It better go North....



Here.... I may as well post the 12z snowfall map I suppose.

 

As you can see, the GFS prediction isnt nearly as good for ski country as the Euro map.  But what I was saying is that the GFS tends to be too far south with these northeast winter storms.  We've seen it again and again and again over the last few years.

So it wouldn't shock me if the Euro winds up being right.......... yet again.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 30, 2013)

12z Euro is out and it's south of the 00z Euro run, but north of the above 12z GFS.  

Would be worse for most of New England + Dax, but still great for Cats and Poconos.  Will be interesting to see what the Euro ensembles say when they come out in a bit (i.e. did the Euro really jog south or is the operational run an outlier).


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## steamboat1 (Dec 30, 2013)

Sounds like another potential snow right behind this on Mon. the 6th.


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## Rowsdower (Dec 30, 2013)

Finally, winter comes to me.


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## bdfreetuna (Dec 30, 2013)

This is great news. Keep 'em coming!


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## flightschool (Dec 30, 2013)

Great news indeed.  I'm at the loaf now, thought they would get more than 4" from the last storm, but it didn't materialize.  They have done minimal snow making, apparently their water reservoir has been problematic throughout the season so far.  

Unrelated - I was at killington 27-28th December and conditions were better there than at the Loaf today (30th).


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 30, 2013)

bdfreetuna said:


> This is great news. *Keep 'em coming!*



Well, since you mentioned it, the Euro is sniffing out another large storm over the 5th and 6th.  

That one needs to: A) Hold together B) shift a bit east

But if both of those materialize it would be a helluva 1-2 punch.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 30, 2013)

Friday at Wachusett might be in the cards.


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## billski (Dec 30, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> Friday at Wachusett might be in the cards.


With the temps staying low, Friday anywhere will be a great day!


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## billski (Dec 30, 2013)

Did you see the scenarios that crapuweather is already putting out?


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## billski (Dec 30, 2013)

I hear it will be a slow-moving, prolonged event.


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## skifree (Dec 30, 2013)

#1 please


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## ZYDECORICH (Dec 30, 2013)

Hey bill,hope all is well. # 1 would be nice wouldn't it.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 30, 2013)

billski said:


> Did you see the scenarios that *crapuweather *is already putting out?



Which is why people *crap* all over them.  If I wasnt a skier I'd love to see that blow up on them.  There were (still are) so many uncertainties with this storm what with there being 2 pieces of energy and all the moving pieces etc... that that had huge bust potential when they did that.  lol


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 31, 2013)

The more they hype the more likely it is to bust. How do I anti-jinx all of these "HUGE snowstorm" pre-predictions.:???:

My snow stake is at 4" of glacier "snow" right now. It has been to a high of 10". At the rate these storms keep busting for NE VT, I will go another year (currently 3) without having 12 or more inches of snow at my stake for more than 24 hours. Last year, in late March, it got up to 14" overnight but that melted down to 10" by the end of the day.


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## billski (Dec 31, 2013)

Me thinks that So. VT stands a better than average chance of a good pickup from this storm.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 31, 2013)

Trending more moderate now... :-(


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## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> Trending more moderate now... :-(



I've learned you'll drive yourself crazy watching snow forecasts. Hope for the best...prepare yourself for the worst.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 31, 2013)

MadMadWorld said:


> I've learned you'll drive yourself crazy watching snow forecasts. Hope for the best...prepare yourself for the worst.



Fully aware of that. But it still makes me sad.


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 31, 2013)

Sorry to be a Debbie downer, but here's what's up with the storm. Its trended south. The main show has shifted over SE MA. Northern ski country is looking like it's going to get nada and southern ski country is looking at a paltry 1-4 inches.

The next storm is a cutter. It will cut inland, bringing its warm front through New England. We will torch and flood. It could be a disaster; however, we are still around a week out so we have time to watch the trends, but be prepared for a Thanksgiving Week redux.


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## JDMRoma (Dec 31, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Sorry to be a Debbie downer, but here's what's up with the storm. It's trended south. The main show has shifted over SE MA. Northern ski country is looking like it's going to get nada and southern ski country is looking at a paltry 1-4 inches.
> 
> The next storm is a cutter. It will cut inland, bringing its warm front through New England. We will torch and flood. It could be a disaster; however, we are still around a week out so we have time to watch the trends, but be prepared for a Thanksgiving Week redux.



Ughh excuse me while I go throw up.......Im moving if this happens again !


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## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Sorry to be a Debbie downer, but here's what's up with the storm. It's trended south. The main show has shifted over SE MA. Northern ski country is looking like it's going to get nada and southern ski country is looking at a paltry 1-4 inches.
> 
> The next storm is a cutter. It will cut inland, bringing its warm front through New England. We will torch and flood. It could be a disaster; however, we are still around a week out so we have time to watch the trends, but be prepared for a Thanksgiving Week redux.



Who invited you to this party? You should delete this post immediately before everyone jumps out of their office window.


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## billski (Dec 31, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> The next storm is a cutter. It will cut inland, bringing its warm front through New England.



I'm not a met, so help me out here.  The forecasts I've seen suggest the snowfall pattern to be similar to the event from last Sunday.  Are the conditions the same, but the storm center just further to the east?


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 31, 2013)

FYI things could and will change. That is just the look as of this morning, not going to sugarcoat it. Play kill the carrier all you want though, it's tough to swallow.

Bill: 

Thursday storm will be similar to Sunday's storm but farther SE.

Next weeks storm could be different. the last one was offshore, but didn't have a lot of cold. The scenario for this one is that there is plenty if cold, but the storm will hook inland and displace the cold air off to our west, bringing in warmer air.

Ugh


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## billski (Dec 31, 2013)

NWS
000
FXUS61 KBOX 311150
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EST TUE DEC 31 2013
 MODELS...MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME MORE ALIGN AMONGST ONE
  ANOTHER AS BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED
  TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET STILL SEEM TO BE
  OUTLIERS BEING THE FURTHEREST OUT TO SEA. THE 00Z EC HAS SPED UP
  AND IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN ITS 12Z COUNTERPART. THE EC
ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LINE UP WITH THE GEFS.
  THEREFORE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A GFS/EC/PREV FORECAST
  COMPROMISE. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
  SPREAD AMONGST THE INDIVIDUAL GEFS MEMBERS AS WELL AS A
  SIGNIFICANT TRACK SHIFT/ERROR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS WE ARE STILL
  72 HOURS OUT. SO CONTINUED WITH A BELOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.


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## JDMRoma (Dec 31, 2013)

billski said:


> NWS
> 000
> FXUS61 KBOX 311150
> AFDBOX
> ...



English please....


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 31, 2013)

JDMRoma: Storm will be moving faster and will become less wrapped up due to fast atmospheric flow. The trough (thing that helps being big Nor Easters up the coast) will be flatter, therefore pushing the storm farther south. The sharper it is, the better the storm. Models are coming into better agreement, but there is still a ton of uncertainty.

The irony of the whole situation is during the next storm the trough gets too sharp and brings the storm too far to the northwest and shoves it inland. (I think)


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2013)

JDMRoma said:


> English please....



Disappointment


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## ScottySkis (Dec 31, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> FYI things could and will change. That is just the look as of this morning, not going to sugarcoat it. Play kill the carrier all you want though, it's tough to swallow.
> 
> Bill:
> 
> ...



Any snow for Roxury NY? They need the snow I like them to have more then 7 trails open.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2013)

The pacific stream is apparently going to be sampled tonight, so I'll hold out hope until the 00z Euro run.  We've seen models take snowstorms away and bring them back before so you never know. 

 Frankly the real story here that might be missed is just how crazy-cold it might get if the models are right.  They show temps for where I live that I would have to imagine would be record breakers.  That Saints vs Eagles game could be the Frostbite Bowl if the models are right.


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 31, 2013)

MadMadWorld said:


> Who invited you to this party? You should delete this post immediately before everyone jumps out of their office window.



Too late, I looked at the models for Friday through Monday and immediately jumped out the window. Luckily it is a one story building. It still hurt a little bit since we only have 3 inches of hardpack on the ground right now.


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## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> Too late, I looked at the models for Friday through Monday and immediately jumped out the window. Luckily it is a one story building. It still hurt a little bit since we only have 3 inches of hardpack on the ground right now.



Doh! I am still hoping/praying/begging that my area picks up a decent accumulation from the storm!


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## Cannonball (Dec 31, 2013)

I have a flight out of Logan at 8pm Thursday.  That should pretty much guarantee that this storm is a whopper.  You're welcome....


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## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

Cannonball said:


> I have a flight out of Logan at 8pm Thursday.  That should pretty much guarantee that this storm is a whopper.  You're welcome....



Thank you!


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## Smellytele (Dec 31, 2013)

Well this is one map I have seen...


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## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

Smellytele said:


> Well this is one map I have seen...



WaaaaWaaaWachusett!


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## JDMRoma (Dec 31, 2013)

MadMadWorld said:


> WaaaaWaaaWachusett!


I was thinking the same thing....or Pats / Crotchet / sunapee
No Fn sense driving up to BW for that.....WTF !!


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## ScottySkis (Dec 31, 2013)

Smellytele said:


> Well this is one map I have seen...



Looking great for Roxbury.:beer:


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## wa-loaf (Dec 31, 2013)

MadMadWorld said:


> WaaaaWaaaWachusett!



I'll be taking Friday off if we are talking 12" at WA.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2013)

12z GFS just ran and has the best snows in s.NE.


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## Savemeasammy (Dec 31, 2013)

JDMRoma said:


> I was thinking the same thing....or Pats / Crotchet / sunapee
> No Fn sense driving up to BW for that.....WTF !!



Pats won't be worth it.  Spread the word!  Tell your friends!     (I will be there just in case I'm wrong...!)


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## skifree (Dec 31, 2013)

Cannonball said:


> I have a flight out of Logan at 8pm Thursday.  That should pretty much guarantee that this storm is a whopper.  You're welcome....



thank you


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## 4aprice (Dec 31, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> 12z GFS just ran and has the best snows in s.NE.



Hey BG.  Bastardi posted the 5,10 and 15 day ECMWF snow prediction maps on twitter.  If that comes true, HOLY you know what.  "Sweet dreams are made of this".

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2013)

4aprice said:


> Hey BG.  Bastardi posted the 5,10 and 15 day ECMWF snow prediction maps on twitter.  If that comes true, HOLY you know what.  "Sweet dreams are made of this".



Yeah, there's another storm that the models want to develop behind this one.  Far out though, but fingers crossed.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2013)

Here's the hot-off-the-press 12z snowfall map. 

  Remember, these maps default to 10:1, which is wrong in this case since it's going to be pretty cold, so multiply snowfall amounts you see by 1.5.    Catskills and Berks win on this run.


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 31, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Catskills and Berks win on this run.


Well apparently my region of NE can't win at all


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## moresnow (Dec 31, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> Well apparently my region of NE can't win at all



You guys have had a rough December, but it'll come. And when it does let's hope it doesn't stop.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 31, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> Well apparently my region of NE can't win at all



Drive south I'll give you a tour of Wachusett ...


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## KD7000 (Dec 31, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> I'll be taking Friday off if we are talking 12" at WA.


You might see me there.  If Northboro closes schools, I'll skip work and head there with my kids.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 31, 2013)

KD7000 said:


> You might see me there.  If Northboro closes schools, I'll skip work and head there with my kids.



I live in Northboro too. What school do your kids go to?


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 31, 2013)

moresnow said:


> You guys have had a rough December, but it'll come. And when it does let's hope it doesn't stop.


It is more than just this past December. Short of one single storm in late March last year, the central NEK has been in this loser pattern for going on three years now (see my previous comments about my snow stake). Burke (and Dartmouth Skiway) were the last resorts in the entire NE (maybe the entire east!) to record a single event snowfall of 12" or more (that late March storm). And it was so late in the season and on such a thin base that it was too little too late to really get to enjoy it. It started to melt almost as soon as it fell.


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 31, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> Drive south I'll give you a tour of Wachusett ...



Don't they groom all of their powder :lol:


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## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> I'll be taking Friday off if we are talking 12" at WA.



Same here. Let me know if you end up there.


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## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> Don't they groom all of their powder :lol:



If it's a big storm they will usually wait to ruin everything until the evening groom.....how nice!


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## KD7000 (Dec 31, 2013)

MadMadWorld said:


> If it's a big storm they will usually wait to ruin everything until the evening groom.....how nice!


I thoroughly enjoyed that last big storm we got, where it appeared that the mountain stayed ungroomed all day.  But by the end of the day, the piles / chop /crud was ridiculous.  Night skiing would have been a near-disaster.


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## JDMRoma (Dec 31, 2013)

Waa may be my best bet on friday too.....Hmm


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## Tin (Dec 31, 2013)

After 6" yesterday and at least 6" from this, Crotched will be amazing.


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## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

JDMRoma said:


> Waa may be my best bet on friday too.....Hmm



I think I smell an AZ meetup abrewin'!


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## wa-loaf (Dec 31, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> Don't they groom all of their powder :lol:



They let it slide sometimes. Old growth Forrest means no trees skiing ... though I don't think 12inches of light pow would be that much fun in bare woods right now anyway ...


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## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> They let it slide sometimes. Old growth Forrest means no trees skiing ... though I don't think 12inches of light pow would be that much fun in bare woods right now anyway ...



Actually it just means don't get caught to most people. Some idiot will probably try and ski the Pine Hill Trail this weekend.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2013)

12z Euro finished running.  Precip output hot-off-the-presses looks VERY similar to 12z GFS.

Remember 15:1 due to cold.  Maybe more if we're lucky.


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## St. Bear (Dec 31, 2013)

Looks like the jackpot is going to be the Berkshires and Catskills.


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## skifree (Dec 31, 2013)

targets on mount snow


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 31, 2013)

About the other storm: Eastward trend has begun

GFS turned it into a 36 degree rainer rather than a 50 degree rainer. Good trend


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## SnowRock (Dec 31, 2013)

How sharp a cutoff are we looking at for the north? We are visiting friends near gunstock tonight and supposed to head to stowe early Thursday. Wondering if we should stick down here Thursday and then head up to vt


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## ScottySkis (Dec 31, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Looks like the jackpot is going to be the Berkshires and Catskills.



This is awesome meet up in Roxbury NY this weekend.


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## billski (Dec 31, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> Too late, I looked at the models for Friday through Monday and immediately jumped out the window. Luckily it is a one story building. It still hurt a little bit since we only have 3 inches of hardpack on the ground right now.


  You guys got skunked.  Well, at least you're in the same club as JP, Stowe, etc.  Not that I like the thought


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## billski (Dec 31, 2013)

I'll just throw out some other charts, which really illustrate that there is not a forecast agreement yet.





This is a computer forecast of precipitation that will fall during the  12 hour  period from 7 AM EST through 7 PM EST for one day before the date indicated at the bottom of the map. This is normally the day after tomorrow. Amounts include liquid forms plus the water equivalent (melted amount)  of any solid forms.  Precipitation is contoured in steps starting with  .01 inch, then .10 inch, .25 inch, .50 inch, .75, 1.0 inch and in steps  of one inch after that. Areas shown in black have less than .01 inch  (usually none) forecast.

GFS:





I <Heart> NAM:


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## billski (Dec 31, 2013)

We've really got to do something about all these southern new england storms.  Even snow haters agree that the snow should be in the mountains


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## ScottySkis (Dec 31, 2013)

billski said:


> We've really got to do something about all these southern new england storms.  Even snow haters agree that the snow should be in the mountains



We have mountains in south New England to. I hope all of New England gets the snow, but it killing me knowing now that my favorite hill has 7 trails but with this storm if it hits they be rocking and 100 % open with the glades that I see. Also first year I only 65 miles away so as much as I love bigger hills of Vermont I love waking up at 6 being in Roxury by 8 skiing great snow driving home easily eat dinner at home and repeat for Sunday and spend less then 100$ for tickets and gas that my perfect ski day.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2013)

18Z NAM just came in much wetter, which would excite me if not for the fact it always does. lol


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## billski (Dec 31, 2013)

Brilliant!   now TWC (right or wrong) has me wound up.





I called for a 6" minimum for an anti-work day.  Exhaustion might be a good reason!


----------



## catsup948 (Dec 31, 2013)

I still think higher summits in the Berks and southern greens will do well from prolonged light to moderate snow through the day Friday even with the bone dry cold.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2013)

billski said:


> Brilliant!   now TWC (right or wrong) has me wound up.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Looks pretty much like the models, except they're bringing heavy snowfall way higher into NY and VT than the models indicate.  I'm guessing they think this hugs the coast more than the models indicate.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

billski said:


> Brilliant!   now TWC (right or wrong) has me wound up.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



How the hell do they come up with those 12-18 in spots.....it's like they are just throwing darts at a map....oh wait


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 31, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Looks pretty much like the models, except they're bringing heavy snowfall way higher into NY and VT than the models indicate.  I'm guessing they think this hugs the coast more than the models indicate.



If Platty gets a foot plus will I see you their this weekend?


----------



## Cornhead (Dec 31, 2013)

Oops, didn't get permission to use, hope I don't get sued. Not a fan of TWC naming/hyping  every little storm that rolls through. They'll be back to the beginning of the alphabet before the season's done...I hope.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2013)

Scotty said:


> *If Platty gets a foot plus will I see you their this weekend?*



Unsure now. 
 I've been monitoring this system for over a week now and Platty was the obvious choice for Saturday

The problem? 
 It looks like arctic air follows this thing down to the point where we might be talking record-breaking cold temperatures sometime in the Friday to Sunday timeframe.  Dont get me wrong, I'll ski in cold, but I'm not skiing in ambient -3 with a 15mph wind.  Gonna wait until Friday when we have a much better read on the temps to pull the trigger or not.


----------



## Savemeasammy (Dec 31, 2013)

MadMadWorld said:


> How the hell do they come up with those 12-18 in spots.....it's like they are just throwing darts at a map....oh wait



This looks like a meager attempt to pinpoint areas with elevation to me...

TWC: please...  Stop with the stupid practice of naming snow storms. Thanks.  


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 31, 2013)

Man, the 18"+ crowd on the ensembles has emerged for SE MA. Lets see some more consistency and shove it a little north...

So much for the doom and gloom, I'm excited again!

I'll bet a low 3-5 as an average for all of ski country and hope to get pleasantly surprised. Not 100% sold on 6+ inches north of Manchester.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> *So much for the doom and gloom, I'm excited again!
> 
> I'll bet a low 3-5 as an average for all of ski country* and hope to get pleasantly surprised. Not 100% sold on 6+ inches north of Manchester.



Well, sure, but given the ridiculous potential that seemed to be here for a MECS it's disappointing I think.  I'm still holding out hopes the models are confused by all the simultaneous variables at work here and it digs more than they're expecting.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

Savemeasammy said:


> This looks like a meager attempt to pinpoint areas with elevation to me...
> 
> TWC: please...  Stop with the stupid practice of naming snow storms. Thanks.
> 
> ...



Maybe but the Berkshires and Worcester hills aren't exactly one in the same.

On a side note, Hercules! Hercules! Hercules!


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 31, 2013)

GEFS (not the GFS) producing big hits for Boston into CNE. Early hints at a strong comma head hit.


----------



## Bene288 (Dec 31, 2013)

What's the time frame for this thing? Is it an all day Thursday with cleanup by Friday morning or Thursday night into Friday?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2013)

18z GFS emsembles are better with the pcp than the op, looks like a solid 7.5" to 11" for Cats, Berk, S.VT, and s.NH (are there any ski areas in way south NH?). Good news for sure.

EDIT:  The 8th member curls into NJ and basically explodes.  I'll take that one!



Bene288 said:


> What's the time frame for this thing? Is it an all  day Thursday with cleanup by Friday morning or Thursday night into  Friday?



It's changed a bit over the last few days and seems more like a Thursday night into Friday thing now.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> 18z GFS emsembles are better with the pcp than the op, looks like a solid 7.5" to 11" for Cats, Berk, S.VT, and s.NH (are there any ski areas in way south NH?). Good news for sure.
> 
> EDIT:  The 8th member curls into NJ and basically explodes.  I'll take that one!
> 
> ...



Crotched and Pat's are probably the furthest south I believe.


----------



## JDMRoma (Dec 31, 2013)

MadMadWorld said:


> Crotched and Pat's are probably the furthest south I believe.


I may have friday off….wouldnt want to Drive into work in Such BAD conditions….so Im torn between hitting WaWa or Crotched…..


----------



## jaysunn (Dec 31, 2013)

I'm feeling sick on Friday. Thanks bg and bbd for these models. Pretty cool imagery.

Edit: also thanks to everyone else in this thread. Helping me decide Friday.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

JDMRoma said:


> I may have friday off….wouldnt want to Drive into work in Such BAD conditions….so Im torn between hitting WaWa or Crotched…..



Haha I can sympathize with that. I'm considered essential personnel so it's hit or miss for me. In a snow storm I wait by the phone hoping I get the phone call to stay home. I'm hoping it's that way on Friday


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2013)




----------



## Quietman (Dec 31, 2013)

For everyone thinking of skiing on Friday, it's going to be wicked cold.  Here is the current forecast for Killington:

jan03
Snow Showers
Snw Shwrs
-9°-18°

High temp of -9, low of -18,  with 15mph winds.  Just food for thought....   Even Crotched will be have high of 4, low of -12.


----------



## JDMRoma (Dec 31, 2013)

Crotched it is !! I really don't care about Cold….if its Powder Im gonna be there !!
Just fooling around, but I will still go..even if I need to take many breaks


----------



## wa-loaf (Dec 31, 2013)

Quietman said:


> For everyone thinking of skiing on Friday, it's going to be wicked cold.  Here is the current forecast for Killington:
> 
> jan03
> Snow Showers
> ...



Boot warmers with a boot glove and good to go!


----------



## JDMRoma (Dec 31, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> Boot warmers with a boot glove and good to go!


+1 on that and a good face mask !


----------



## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

JDMRoma said:


> +1 on that and a good face mask !



Under Armour face mask is amazing!


----------



## jaysunn (Dec 31, 2013)

Wow those are some frigid numbers for Friday. However, Nothing feels better then being prepared, with all the correct gear on a peak. It's an amazing feeling. Girly got me the new marker thermals. Can't wait to test them.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2013)

Quietman said:


> *For everyone thinking of skiing on Friday, it's going to be wicked cold.*  Here is the current forecast for Killington:
> 
> jan03
> Snow Showers
> ...



Yup, that aint happening.  I'm even worried for Saturday, fingers crossed the arctic air retreats.


----------



## planb420 (Dec 31, 2013)

Thinking of hitting up Berkshire East this friday....anyone think they will get enough to have full glades? Want to make my first trip up there so i dont have to risk getting caught poaching woods locally...


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 31, 2013)

planb420 said:


> Thinking of hitting up Berkshire East this friday....anyone think they will get enough to have full glades? Want to make my first trip up there so i dont have to risk getting caught poaching woods locally...



Berkshire East should be a good bet.

NAM goes gangbusters lol. E MA in a raging blizzard Friday morning.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> *NAM goes gangbusters*



Yup, too bad it's the NAM!  But on the positive side, even when it spits out ridiculous pcp it usually at least grabs the trend.  So it wouldnt shock me if the Euro and GFS improve at least a bit too. 

 I'll be interested to see if the GFS comes west a bit given it's eastern bias, which would be a nice thing for ski country.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

planb420 said:


> Thinking of hitting up Berkshire East this friday....anyone think they will get enough to have full glades? Want to make my first trip up there so i dont have to risk getting caught poaching woods locally...



My guess is the snow will be really light and that could be bad news for a non existent base in the woods.


----------



## billski (Dec 31, 2013)

Looks like Yawgoo will be having a powder day on friday!


----------



## billski (Dec 31, 2013)

planb420 said:


> Thinking of hitting up Berkshire East this friday....anyone think they will get enough to have full glades? Want to make my first trip up there so i dont have to risk getting caught poaching woods locally...



Meet me at Magic.  You can do it all legally there!


----------



## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

billski said:


> Meet me at Magic.  You can do it all legally there!



You most definitely will destroy your base but you will have fun in the process!


----------



## billski (Dec 31, 2013)

JDMRoma said:


> Waa may be my best bet on friday too.....Hmm


  Yawgoo will be better.   and


----------



## billski (Dec 31, 2013)

MadMadWorld said:


> You most definitely will destroy your base but you will have fun in the process!


Is there a problem?


----------



## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2013)

billski said:


> Is there a problem?



Just a disclaimer. Like I said it will still be fun haha


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2013)

00z GFS is out and it doesnt seem drastically different from the 18z


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

this is an excellent source for model graphics
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

Interesting observations
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/boston-much-colder-air-possibl/21499650
Bernie Rainow


----------



## drjeff (Jan 1, 2014)

NWS - keeps revising the temps DOWN up here at Mount Snow - the forecasted high for Friday is now -1 with a low of -19!!! And that doesn't even include the big winds forecasted too!! 

Bundle up big time if you're going to go for it on Friday!!

Sent from my DROID RAZR using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## MadMadWorld (Jan 1, 2014)

drjeff said:


> NWS - keeps revising the temps DOWN up here at Mount Snow - the forecasted high for Friday is now -1 with a low of -19!!! And that doesn't even include the big winds forecasted too!!
> 
> Bundle up big time if you're going to go for it on Friday!!
> 
> Sent from my DROID RAZR using AlpineZone mobile app



Yikes....even I'm starting to reconsider.


----------



## Savemeasammy (Jan 1, 2014)

2-4 inches per hour possible for some.  Wow.  Hopefully this storm tracks a bit further north than they think!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Jan 1, 2014)




----------



## catsup948 (Jan 1, 2014)

Berkshire east would not be a good bet for the woods if you like your bases.  I was there a couple days ago and there is no base outside of man made snow.  A foot of snow would help things big time!

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> Yikes....even I'm starting to reconsider.


  There really is only one answer.  Fixed grip.


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

Here are the latest NWS snow forecast maps, overlaid with ski areas
You owe me first tracks


----------



## jaysunn (Jan 1, 2014)

Thanks @billski starting to look like Mohawk in ct. Whatcha think.


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

View attachment 10054


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

jaysunn said:


> Thanks @billski starting to look like Mohawk in ct. Whatcha think.


In a word, 
for many reasons.


----------



## ScottySkis (Jan 1, 2014)

I lovingly this thread we should set up a Platty alpine zone meet for this weekend.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2014)

Scotty said:


> I lovingly this thread we should set up a Platty alpine zone meet for this weekend.



I'm still thinking we're sadly going to be frozen out of skiing on Saturday.


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

jaysunn said:


> Thanks @billski starting to look like Mohawk in ct. Whatcha think.


http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Mohawk-Mountain/6day/mid


----------



## MadMadWorld (Jan 1, 2014)

There is so much in flux with this storm that the track change on almost an hourly basis. I have a feeling many of us won't be making decisions until right before.


----------



## jaysunn (Jan 1, 2014)

Nice @billski, I see that damn Wind Chill, I am still calling in sick on Friday to be up somewhere by 8AM.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> There is so much in flux with this storm that the track change on almost an hourly basis. I have a feeling many of us won't be making decisions until right before.



Amen.   So much could change still.  But if you look at trends, the one thing that has been remarkably consistent is that all guidance suggests s.NE in the jackpot zone.  Catskills and Berks and s.VT etc...

Also, if you look at trends, the one model that was somewhat pessimistic was the Canadian (wanted to put a big chunk of the precip shield OTC), and now even that shows a big snowstorm over land.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2014)

Here's what I mean with the Canuck. 

 It still has the best snowfalls farther east than any of the models, but it moved way west from prior (a very good sign).  

Even where I am in NJ I would get about 9" from this run, and before it only wanted to give me like 3" or 4".


----------



## ScottySkis (Jan 1, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'm still thinking we're sadly going to be frozen out of skiing on Saturday.



Layers and breaks and lots of warm tea and we will be okay.


----------



## ScottySkis (Jan 1, 2014)

billski said:


> http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Mohawk-Mountain/6day/mid



I given up on that website. The other day before Mountain snow (lol) got the 9 inches of snow they had it forecasted for no snow like 12 hours before. I wish we could hire winnchill for his great forecast ability.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2014)

Scotty said:


> Layers and breaks and lots of warm tea and we will be okay.



Maybe _YOU_ will be okay, but if the temperature is -8 with a 15 mph wind to boot, I'll be on a couch watching football!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2014)

Second Canuck model is in.

  Pretty much the same idea as the other models, but this one is the most north of all the models and basically takes NJ and NYCs snow and gives it to central VT.   Remember to multiply the snow on this map by 1.5 for actual totals since the default is only 10:1.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Jan 1, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Second Canuck model is in.
> 
> Pretty much the same idea as the other models, but this one is the most north of all the models and basically takes NJ and NYCs snow and gives it to central VT.   Remember to multiply the snow on this map by 1.5 for actual totals since the default is only 10:1.



I think you missed your calling in meteorology!


----------



## andrec10 (Jan 1, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'm still thinking we're sadly going to be frozen out of skiing on Saturday.



Think for yourself! Boot heaters and hand warmers will be your friends that day! i skied once at Stowe when it was -35 without a windchill. Nice skiing, just had to warmup a little more often!


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

andrec10 said:


> Think for yourself! Boot heaters and hand warmers will be your friends that day! i skied once at Stowe when it was -35 without a windchill. Nice skiing, just had to warmup a little more often!


I love skiing in the cold.  No lift lines, lots of fresh tracks all day, lifties too cold to check your ticket, trails to  yourself.  All that motion keeps me warm.  That and a box of toe warmers.  The only downside is no seats in the lodge and the hot cocoa machine is empty 

We must keep this in perspective:
0° F: All the people in Miami die. New Englanders close  the windows.
10° below zero: Californians fly away to Mexico. The Girl  Scouts in New England are selling cookies door to door.
25° below zero: Hollywood disintegrates. People in New  England get out their winter coats.
40° below zero: Washington DC runs out of hot air. People  in New England let the dogs sleep indoors.

It's really true about the Girl Scouts!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> I think you missed your calling in meteorology!



Too frustrating for me.  I love science and have my undergraduate in it, but I prefer exact sciences.  Working in a science where even 24 hours out you really cant pinpoint what's going to happen would bother/torture the **** out of me.



andrec10 said:


> *Think for yourself! Boot heaters and hand warmers will be your friends that day! i skied once at Stowe when it was -35* without a windchill. Nice skiing, just had to warmup a little more often!





billski said:


> *
> 
> I love skiing in the cold.  No lift lines, lots of fresh tracks all day*, lifties too cold to check your ticket, trails to  yourself.  *All that motion keeps me warm. *



Folks, we're talking possible RECORD cold here for some areas.  Screw that.  FYI, coldest I've ever been was Killington peak circa 1993.  Ambient temperature was -7, but with windchill it was -60.  Positively BRUTAL.  Any bit of skin not covered was in trouble.  I hope I'm wrong, but I think Saturday is going to have *bigtime negative numbers with windchill.*


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2014)

12z Euro is out.  Looks better than the last one, so again trend is friend here.  

I think it's a bit north like the Canuck, but I could be wrong.  Not as juicy as some models, but still delivers solid snowfall for entire northeast.  

Poconos gets screwed with only about 4.5 inches on this run so maybe it's correct (sarcasm).


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Folks, we're talking possible RECORD cold here for some areas.  Screw that.  FYI, coldest I've ever been was Killington peak circa 1993.  Ambient temperature was -7, but with windchill it was -60.  Positively BRUTAL.  Any bit of skin not covered was in trouble.  I hope I'm wrong, but I think Saturday is going to have *bigtime negative numbers with windchill.*


My all time record was minus 30 ambient warming to minus five ambient in the afternoon.  Saddleback, January, 1981.  No need to ski the highest windswept peaks where liftholds will predominate.  Plenty of attractive New England slopes which offer protection and a great day of skiing.  I have no axe to grind - I don't ski unless I get to the bottom with a smile on my face and neither should you!  (BTW, I won't save you any pow!


----------



## MadMadWorld (Jan 1, 2014)

billski said:


> My all time record was minus 30 ambient warming to minus five ambient in the afternoon.  Saddleback, January, 1981.  No need to ski the highest windswept peaks where liftholds will predominate.  Plenty of attractive New England slopes which offer protection and a great day of skiing.  I have no axe to grind - I don't ski unless I get to the bottom with a smile on my face and neither should you!  (BTW, I won't save you any pow!



That's incredible that they were even open. No powder is worth my fingers or toes falling off.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2014)

billski said:


> My all time record was minus 30 ambient warming to minus five ambient in the afternoon.  Saddleback, January, 1981.  No need to ski the highest windswept peaks where*liftholds will predominate.*



Do you remember what the windchill was or was it calm?   

In terms of holds, yes, now that you mention it that day at Killington they did close some lifts, and IIRC it was because they were worried about frostbite danger rather than windhold danger.  Lodge became a madhouse of humanity.


----------



## deadheadskier (Jan 1, 2014)

andrec10 said:


> Think for yourself! Boot heaters and hand warmers will be your friends that day! i skied once at Stowe when it was -35 without a windchill. Nice skiing, just had to warmup a little more often!



I think -32 was the coldest I experienced at Stowe.  They claimed a windchill of -80 that day.  I didn't own boot heaters back then and wasn't using hand warmers.  Given the length of Stowe's trails we went into the lodge after every run to warm up for ten minutes or so.  Only reason I was out is they had gotten 2 feet of blower they day/night prior.


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

*The Man*

The MAN  checks in today with the GOOD WORD!


----------



## steamboat1 (Jan 1, 2014)

Coldest I've skied was at Stowe also. I think the high for the day was  -14, not as cold as some others mentioned but cold enough for me. We stayed on the gondi all  day & they had those overhead heater lamps which warmed you up a  little every ride. We stayed late & the funny thing I remember about  that day was all the diesel Mecedes Benz's in the parking lot that wouldn't start at the end of the day..


----------



## ScottySkis (Jan 1, 2014)

It was -20 here at Bell this morning with wind chill I took several breaks and am comfortable.


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Do you remember what the windchill was or was it calm?
> 
> In terms of holds, yes, now that you mention it that day at Killington they did close some lifts, and IIRC it was because they were worried about frostbite danger rather than windhold danger.  Lodge became a madhouse of humanity.



I don't remember 33 years ago!  I actually don't remember much at all.  It was so cold all I thought about was the actual skiing.  Like you, it was a run, maybe two before a warm-up.  It's days like that you wish for a non-skiing SO to have a seat by the fire and a hot drink waiting.  It didn't matter.  Even a lodge at 50 degrees would feel like a heat wave.

I just know that where I'm skiing the summit will be protected, the trails narrow and the lifts fixed grip.


----------



## ScottySkis (Jan 1, 2014)

I just know that where I'm skiing the summit will be protected, the trails narrow and the lifts fixed grip.[/QUOTE]

That is a perfect description of Platty.


----------



## St. Bear (Jan 1, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> 12z Euro is out.  Looks better than the last one, so again trend is friend here.
> 
> I think it's a bit north like the Canuck, but I could be wrong.  Not as juicy as some models, but still delivers solid snowfall for entire northeast.
> 
> Poconos gets screwed with only about 4.5 inches on this run so maybe it's correct (sarcasm).



Keep in mind that all these models are 10:1 ratio, and everything I'm reading says it's going to be much higher, maybe even greater than 20:1.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2014)

St. Bear said:


> Keep in mind that all these models are 10:1 ratio, and everything I'm reading says it's going to be much higher, maybe even greater than 20:1.



For the 4.5 inches on that map I was using 15:1

20:1 is possible, but you'd have to take the "under" if you're a betting man given how relatively rare that is, but definitely possible for some areas given the cold air.   Greater than 20:1?  I heard that too, but I think those people are mostly hypers.  And in western NJ, we're in danger or getting the dreaded dry slot for a bit too, hope that doesnt happen


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2014)

This was released at 3pm, not 10:30am, so after the 12z runs. Good bit of detail here and good snow for all of ski country so lets hope it verifies.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Jan 1, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> This was released at 3pm, not 10:30am, so after the 12z runs. Good bit of detail here and good snow for all of ski country so lets hope it verifies.



Blue hills baby!


----------



## skiNEwhere (Jan 1, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> Blue hills baby!



Thumbs up!

My old stomping grounds 

Somebody please go there with a go pro. I'd love to see some sweet powder turns


----------



## JDMRoma (Jan 1, 2014)

skiNEwhere said:


> Thumbs up!
> 
> My old stomping grounds
> 
> Somebody please go there with a go pro. I'd love to see some sweet powder turns



I work 10 minutes from Blue Hills in Westwood….


----------



## skiNEwhere (Jan 1, 2014)

JDMRoma said:


> I work 10 minutes from Blue Hills in Westwood….



After the storm you should go there with a go pro and compare it with your steamboat footage and see if people on AZ can differentiate


----------



## wa-loaf (Jan 1, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> This was released at 3pm, not 10:30am, so after the 12z runs. Good bit of detail here and good snow for all of ski country so lets hope it verifies.



I approve of this map.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2014)

Blue Hills?  Never heard of that place, and didnt realize there was a place to ski so close to Boston.  Zoo?


----------



## wa-loaf (Jan 1, 2014)




----------



## Rikka (Jan 1, 2014)

Pow day at Blue Hill Friday ..... Don't hear that to often.....


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> Blue hills baby!


Blue hills will be paralyzed.  Can you imagine 2 feet of snow on their pitch?


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

skinewhere said:


> after the storm you should go there with a go pro and compare it with your steamboat footage and see if people on az can differentiate


lmfao!!!


----------



## skiNEwhere (Jan 1, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Blue Hills?  Never heard of that place, and didnt realize there was a place to ski so close to Boston.  Zoo?



Usually not packed when I went there. It's so small that bostonians would drive the hour to wachusett instead


----------



## JDMRoma (Jan 1, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Blue Hills?  Never heard of that place, and didnt realize there was a place to ski so close to Boston.  Zoo?



never knew it was that big…..if I drove that far down into mass they'd expect me to work !!!


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

The NWS just cranked up everyone in the bullseye by 2".   10-14" in So. VT.  Infreakingcredible.  There is no way any work is going to get done for the next ten days, especially considering something is brewing for a snowdaymonday.

p.s., Don't tell Stowe and Jay - they're getting a gratuitous 1-4".


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

000
FXUS61 KBOX 012139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
439 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014

...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY..
...
ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO MOVE IN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
...
TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE...WILL START A WINTER STORM WARNING AT 4 AM.  
THIS SHOULD COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW MAY BEGIN A LITTLE EARLIER ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND
WESTERN MA.
...
THURSDAY IS TRICKY. THINKING SNOW GROWTH WILL DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE
MASS PIKE
...
TO
KEEP THINGS SIMPLE AGAIN...WILL JUST CONTINUE TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE DESPITE THE WEAKER SNOW. THINKING
IS IT WILL MAKE HEADLINES NEEDLESSLY COMPLEX AND CONFUSING. *FOLKS
THAT DO SEE THE LULL IN THE SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN
PREPARED TO DEAL WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.
...
*
THE BRUNT OF THIS COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE JUST AFTER THE
THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE...BUT IT IS LIKELY THE COMMUTE ITSELF
WILL BE IMPACTED BY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY.
...

*WE THOUGHT A LOT ABOUT ISSUING BLIZZARD WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT
THIS TIME WE THINK THAT THE FULL CRITERIA FOR A BLIZZARD WILL NOT
BE MET...BUT IT IS VERY CLOSE. *AS SUCH WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION
NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MA.


----------



## skiNEwhere (Jan 1, 2014)

That big blue trail is at least 50 yards wide, and relatively steep without any turns. Depending on the current base of Blue Hills, with 2+ feet of snow there could there be an extremely rare chance of a Massachusetts avalanche. Far fetched? Yes, but not out of the realm of possibility. I wonder if Blue Hills will groom it? I would think so because last time I was there they used half of big blue for racing


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2014)

With the very low temps and arctic air this storm is going to produce legitimate powder snowfall.

  And I mean that relative to the way people always misuse the word "powder" for any type of snow.


----------



## ScottySkis (Jan 1, 2014)

How much snow you think Platty will get. Storm will be over by Saturday so I don't need a hotel Saturday night?


----------



## MadMadWorld (Jan 1, 2014)

skiNEwhere said:


> That big blue trail is at least 50 yards wide, and relatively steep without any turns. Depending on the current base of Blue Hills, with 2+ feet of snow there could there be an extremely rare chance of a Massachusetts avalanche. Far fetched? Yes, but not out of the realm of possibility. I wonder if Blue Hills will groom it? I would think so because last time I was there they used half of big blue for racing



Do you know the science behind avalanches? I would put the risk at zero even if they got 3 feet.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Jan 1, 2014)

Looks like north shore is going to get hit hard go Ski Bradford!


----------



## MadMadWorld (Jan 1, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Blue Hills?  Never heard of that place, and didnt realize there was a place to ski so close to Boston.  Zoo?



You can see it from 95 south. It's the only hill south of the Pike in the metro region. Nothing challenging at all. Beer's Bluff is the closest thing they have to an expert run and I believe it hasn't been open for 5 years or so. Another fun fact.....one of only a couple places to have a known rattlesnake den.


----------



## JDMRoma (Jan 1, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> You can see it from 95 south. It's the only hill south of the Pike in the metro region. Nothing challenging at all. Beer's Bluff is the closest thing they have to an expert run and I believe it hasn't been open for 5 years or so. Another fun fact.....one of only a couple places to have a known rattlesnake den.


You can see it on the left just before exit 13 / Amtrak station…its usually still lit up when I get into work at 5am


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2014)

Scotty said:


> *How much snow you think Platty will get.*



Unless something changes, they've been in the jackpot zone on literally every run of every global model.  10" minimum to 16" based on liquid and 15:1 or so (YRMV).




Scotty said:


> Storm will be over by Saturday so *I don't need a hotel Saturday night?*



You're still considering skiing on Saturday?   Bring a flask of whiskey.  Hopefully I'm wrong and it warms up, but I think it could be brutal.


----------



## ScottySkis (Jan 1, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Unless something changes, they've been in the jackpot zone on literally every run of every global model.  10" minimum to 16" based on liquid and 15:1 or so (YRMV).
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Absolutely whiskey will be with me. Hope you be there to.


----------



## wa-loaf (Jan 1, 2014)

JDMRoma said:


> You can see it on the left just before exit 13 / Amtrak station…its usually still lit up when I get into work at 5am



Damn you have a hell of a commute.


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

Scotty said:


> How much snow you think Platty will get. Storm will be over by Saturday so I don't need a hotel Saturday night?


  OF COURSE YOU NEED A ROOM.  What do you think, you're only skiing one day?  yuk, yuk, yuk!


----------



## JDMRoma (Jan 1, 2014)

wa-loaf said:


> Damn you have a hell of a commute.


Yes I do…totally sucks, company I work for was in Wilmington Mass for 20 something years until we merged with another company.
Now Im in Westwood…..52 miles each way,Only good thing is I can go in early as I want. So right now 5am to 1:30pm is working for me
Sucks getting up at 3am though,but nice to be home at 2:30.Getting up to ski is a piece of cake !


----------



## ScottySkis (Jan 1, 2014)

billski said:


> OF COURSE YOU NEED A ROOM.  What do you think, you're only skiing one day?  yuk, yuk, yuk!



I ski both days for sure. I only live 65 miles away from Platty going over 2 mountain passes. Or 76 miles if I take the highway.


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

Scotty said:


> I ski both days for sure. I only live 65 miles away from Platty going over 2 mountain passes. Or 76 miles if I take the highway.


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)




----------



## MadMadWorld (Jan 1, 2014)

JDMRoma said:


> Yes I do…totally sucks, company I work for was in Wilmington Mass for 20 something years until we merged with another company.
> Now Im in Westwood…..52 miles each way,Only good thing is I can go in early as I want. So right now 5am to 1:30pm is working for me
> Sucks getting up at 3am though,but nice to be home at 2:30.Getting up to ski is a piece of cake !



Working those hours definitely helps with traffic. I know many people that work in the city that go in at the same time as you.


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)




----------



## Hado226 (Jan 1, 2014)

Originally Posted by *planb420* 

 
 				Thinking of hitting up Berkshire East this  friday....anyone think they will get enough to have full glades? Want to  make my first trip up there so i dont have to risk getting caught  poaching woods locally...
 			 		 	 My guess is the snow will be really light and that could be bad news for a non existent base in the woods.



MadMadWorld said:


> My guess is the snow will be really light and that could be bad news for a non existent base in the woods.



The mid-December storm delivered about 12" on bare ground, we skied a couple days with all areas "Open", though one needed a pretty big ski or to not really care if bases got scraped a bit.

As of today, there is about 1" of hard frozen slush on the ground at the top of the mountain, a bit more as you go down to the base.  With anything over 6-8 much of the woods will be in play, especially those sections adjacent to snow-making trails (Tomahawk, East Glades, Al's Woods, Blizzard Island.)  Not sure I'd venture into Horace's Grove, Roger's World or the cliffs west of Beast without a bit more coverage.

I'll be Patrolling the woods and steeps there Friday on the Maestros.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Jan 1, 2014)

Hado226 said:


> Originally Posted by *planb420*
> 
> 
> Thinking of hitting up Berkshire East this  friday....anyone think they will get enough to have full glades? Want to  make my first trip up there so i dont have to risk getting caught  poaching woods locally...
> ...



Didn't that snow start off as pretty heavy and wet? This snow will be super light.....cold smoke type. That makes a big difference. Trees will definitely be skiable but I would do it with an older pair or with someone that knows where the big rocks/stumps/etc are.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2014)

Scotty said:


> Absolutely whiskey will be with me. *Hope you be there to*.



Not a chance you'll see me on Saturday.  

Clearly I'm not man enough.






Shooting for Sunday.  

This is far more my speed!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2014)

billski said:


> View attachment 10062



That's cool, how do you get the ski area names to overlay like that?  Sorcery?


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> How did you get the ski areas to overlay on that?



I used a graphics program to create a new layer, which I typed the resort names over.  I then merged the layers.  Right now I'm having a resolution problem uploading files to AZ.  I've got overlays for most of New England now.  It's pretty handy.


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> That's cool, how do you get the ski area names to overlay like that?  Sorcery?


Here are some other ones I did earlier today.  http://forums.alpinezone.com/showth...-2nd-3rd-storm?p=809650&viewfull=1#post809650

The precip numbers have gone up since I did those.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Jan 1, 2014)

billski said:


> I used a graphics program to create a new layer, which I typed the resort names over.  I then merged the layers.  Right now I'm having a resolution problem uploading files to AZ.  I've got overlays for most of New England now.  It's pretty handy.



Keep it up. It's really helpful.


----------



## skifree (Jan 1, 2014)

Any idea on winds for Friday?


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

skifree said:


> Any idea on winds for Friday?


  Yes.  Lots of wind.  You will often see strong winds on the backside of a storm.  I'll see if I can dig up a chart.

  Bag the detachable lifts, suck it up and go for the slower lifts.  Slow turns are better than no turns.


----------



## skifree (Jan 1, 2014)

Good! Hoping the cold and wind will keep most away.


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

skifree said:


> Good! Hoping the cold and wind will keep most away.


  It will.  Trust me.


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> Keep it up. It's really helpful.


You'll just have to put up with the fuzziness for now.  I think it's something I control / can fix, just can't put much more time into this.  Gotta get my equipment packed.  I'm using it to give me advance guidance on where I will go.  I still won't make a decision until I see the election numbers  come in tomorrow night.

I've always noticed that once I put something like this together, some commercial concern picks it up and makes it pretty.


----------



## billski (Jan 1, 2014)

skifree said:


> Any idea on winds for Friday?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2014)

skifree said:


> Good! *Hoping the cold and wind will keep most away*.



 I dont think you're going to have to worry bout' that.



billski said:


> I used a graphics program to create a new layer, which I typed the resort names over.  I then merged the layers.



I need to learn stuff like that, seems useful.


----------



## vermonter44 (Jan 1, 2014)

The local NWS here near Philly is giving the Poconos 6-8 which isn't so bad. I may end up there if I can't get up North.


----------



## Rowsdower (Jan 1, 2014)

I'm looking at the Poconos this weekend. Anyone else gonna be up there?


----------



## vermonter44 (Jan 1, 2014)

I may try Elk for the first time this year. If not then I'll go to Blue or Camelback


----------



## Rowsdower (Jan 1, 2014)

I'll be at Camelback for sure. Looking like Sunday is gonna be the nicest day.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 2, 2014)

This would be good news for snowlovers in NJ and better for Poconos and Cats if this guy (pro met from Baltimore) is correct.  He doesnt explicityly say it in the below, but what he means is that any movement towards the coast greater than what the models show = better snowfall for western lands.









> *For the Night Owls...*
> The northern and southern branch jets just met in Arkansas.
> Notice the pivot and southern moisture appears to be pulled farther north.
> Other notes for the weather geeks: A baroclinic leaf is evident developing and pushing north through MD.  This reminds me of the Jan 25, 2000 set up models pushed too out to sea.
> ...


----------



## 〽❄❅ (Jan 2, 2014)

Rowsdower said:


> I'm looking at the Poconos this weekend. Anyone else gonna be up there?


ELK, either Friday if i decide to brave the elements, or Saturday…unless someone comes up with a place around Mt. Snow or the Cat's, wishful thinking.


----------



## billski (Jan 2, 2014)

From Albany discussion this morning:

"ALTHOUGH [snow] AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15:1 OR BETTER BY LATER TODAY."

...
"...AND A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS...GREENS...AND BERKSHIRES MAY SEE CLOSE 15 INCHES IN TOTAL."

From Boston discussion could be burdensome amounts of snow for Blue Hills, and the city proper.
"THE EXCEPTION TO THE LULL IN THE STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE ACROSS EASTERN MA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS WHERE SOME AREAS PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW....THE OCEAN EFFECT ACTIVITY WHICH PROBABLY IS UNDERDONE IN THE MODELS"

It's showtime!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 2, 2014)

So far I've seen professional meterolgists who think this storm will:

A) Underperform
B) Perform as expected
C) Outperform

I love the complete uncertainly.  Hopefully it's a nice surprise.


----------



## drjeff (Jan 2, 2014)

billski said:


> From Albany discussion this morning:
> 
> "ALTHOUGH [snow] AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15:1 OR BETTER BY LATER TODAY."
> 
> ...



15:1 with the forecasted winds ='s 0-36" with a significant windpacked layer ontop of the deeper amounts

As evil as this sounds, if I was a ski resort GM, and I had some unopened terrain awaiting enough natural snow to get it open, I'd be having the grooming crew out during this storm and trying to quickly pack down what falls to keep it where it fell, so that the base set up is better for future storms.  You gotta call a spade a spade sometimes, and the true blower quality density snow that this one looks like it will bring, won't fair well in the winds we're likely to see


----------



## Cornhead (Jan 2, 2014)

billski said:


> From Albany discussion this morning:
> 
> "ALTHOUGH [snow] AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING TO 15:1 OR BETTER BY LATER TODAY."
> 
> ...



High terrain in the Catskills is where I'll be, bring it!


----------



## Savemeasammy (Jan 2, 2014)

drjeff said:


> 15:1 with the forecasted winds ='s 0-36" with a significant windpacked layer ontop of the deeper amounts
> 
> As evil as this sounds, if I was a ski resort GM, and I had some unopened terrain awaiting enough natural snow to get it open, I'd be having the grooming crew out during this storm and trying to quickly pack down what falls to keep it where it fell, so that the base set up is better for future storms.  You gotta call a spade a spade sometimes, and the true blower quality density snow that this one looks like it will bring, won't fair well in the winds we're likely to see



I sort of hate to say it, but I think I agree with this...  Some of the unopened trails out there would probably benefit from being packed down in order to set up for the next few systems in the pipeline.  

This snow is going to be awesome where it falls onto an existing base!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## St. Bear (Jan 2, 2014)

drjeff said:


> As evil as this sounds, if I was a ski resort GM, and I had some unopened terrain awaiting enough natural snow to get it open, I'd be having the grooming crew out during this storm and trying to quickly pack down what falls to keep it where it fell, so that the base set up is better for future storms. You gotta call a spade a spade sometimes, and the true blower quality density snow that this one looks like it will bring, won't fair well in the winds we're likely to see



I've said on this site many times that resorts should do this more.  All too often, you end up seeing huge moguls with dirt in the troughs.


----------



## 4aprice (Jan 2, 2014)

drjeff said:


> 15:1 with the forecasted winds ='s 0-36" with a significant windpacked layer ontop of the deeper amounts
> 
> As evil as this sounds, if I was a ski resort GM, and I had some unopened terrain awaiting enough natural snow to get it open, I'd be having the grooming crew out during this storm and trying to quickly pack down what falls to keep it where it fell, so that the base set up is better for future storms.  You gotta call a spade a spade sometimes, and the true blower quality density snow that this one looks like it will bring, won't fair well in the winds we're likely to see



Call that intelligent grooming.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## MadMadWorld (Jan 2, 2014)

billski said:


> I used a graphics program to create a new layer, which I typed the resort names over.  I then merged the layers.  Right now I'm having a resolution problem uploading files to AZ.  I've got overlays for most of New England now.  It's pretty handy.



Where are your updated maps with snowfall totals? I've been waiting impatiently all morning


----------



## 4aprice (Jan 2, 2014)

Rowsdower said:


> I'll be at Camelback for sure. Looking like Sunday is gonna be the nicest day.



CBK was in excellent shape yesterday,(and empty too:razz can only get better from here.  Bumps on Lower Cleo had been dusted and skied great.  Bumps on Asp had been leveled after rain but the trail had been blown on Tuesday Night and not groomed so it looks like they want to let them build again.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## KD7000 (Jan 2, 2014)

These Friday cold temps have me re-thinking ski plans.  I'd tough it out, but it won't be any fun for the kids.  May have to fight the crowds Saturday.


----------



## JDMRoma (Jan 2, 2014)

KD7000 said:


> These Friday cold temps have me re-thinking ski plans.  I'd tough it out, but it won't be any fun for the kids.  May have to fight the crowds Saturday.


I just may do both days…Id rather deal with Cold then crowds but then again I won't have any kids with me


----------



## bigbog (Jan 2, 2014)

Washing zee feet(to remove that nighttime perspiration prior to going outside)
Good socks
Good fitting boots
Proper layers
Continuous Breathing = circulation.....
Add either neck fleece or headfleece

30deg temps = 30deg snow.....
Ya' want good snow ya' gotta go where it's cold....without the ultrasoft shovels(recreational skis)...Hope there is warm, quality stuff for the kids...agreed, must take some shopping.
.....just sayin'/ramblin.


----------



## SkiingInABlueDream (Jan 2, 2014)

bigbog said:


> Washing zee feet(to remove that nighttime perspiration prior to going outside)
> Good socks
> Good fitting boots
> Proper layers
> ...



Ive read that staying hydrated promotes circulation because your blood thickens with dehydration.


----------



## wa-loaf (Jan 2, 2014)

KD7000 said:


> These Friday cold temps have me re-thinking ski plans.  I'd tough it out, but it won't be any fun for the kids.  May have to fight the crowds Saturday.



I'm going to head up for a few hours without the kids. I really want to get out on my new skis ...


----------



## drjeff (Jan 2, 2014)

bigbog said:


> Washing zee feet(to remove that nighttime perspiration prior to going outside)
> Good socks
> Good fitting boots
> Proper layers
> ...



A little spray anti perspirant just prior to putting your DRY ski socks on and into a DRY, preferably warm ski boot goes a long way too! Nothing worse than feet that sweat on a cold day, just makes them feel colder, quicker both the 1st run of the day and after any subsequent warm up breaks the rest of the day


----------



## flightschool (Jan 2, 2014)

Could anyone offer incite as to whether Loon or Sunday River is a better choice on Friday for good snow?  Thanks


----------



## ScottySkis (Jan 2, 2014)

Perfect storm for people on here to experience Platty magic. I be there Saturday and Sunday so will Cornhead. My car will hate me but that okay for great ski days at Platty.


----------



## JDMRoma (Jan 2, 2014)

wa-loaf said:


> I'm going to head up for a few hours without the kids. I really want to get out on my new skis ...



Im dying to get back on the Soul 7s…just checked tracking and they should be here on Friday….not that I really believe it but  I can still get out on the Gotama's if need be


----------



## SkiingInABlueDream (Jan 2, 2014)

Planning to ski <somewhere> tomorrow.  Hoping Mass doesn't close roads down tonight/tomorrow AM.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 2, 2014)

Last call map


----------



## dlague (Jan 2, 2014)

I would imagine this weekend will be crazy just about everywhere due to this storm!  We will be at Pats Peak for the RSNE kick off but Sunday is wide open.  Just a matter of picking a place where crowds will not be so bad!

At this time we are looking into:

Ragged, Waterville, Suicide Six, Gunstock alternatively also Okemo, Cannon, Bretton Woods.  Although too far north will not get much of the new stuff.


----------



## nemo1ner (Jan 2, 2014)

I will be heading to the Berkshires this afternoon.  I was going to go to Hunter,  but the GF doesn't ride too well and probably would be miserable. Bousquet and Jiminy Peak should keep her happy.


----------



## dlague (Jan 2, 2014)

flightschool said:


> Could anyone offer incite as to whether Loon or Sunday River is a better choice on Friday for good snow?  Thanks



I think either one will be on the border of the 4-8" and the 6-12" areas so pick your favorite of the two!


----------



## billski (Jan 2, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> Where are your updated maps with snowfall totals? I've been waiting impatiently all morning



sorry, I'm on the road and can't get back to it until tonight.  At that point, the forecasts won't matter as much as the actuals, which will be a whole other set of maps to overlay on.  Net-net, they haven't changed much from the set I posted in this thread yesterday.


----------



## billski (Jan 2, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Last call map


This guy always seems to over-forecast.  He really gets wound up over disasters and calamities.  I believe he "advises" businesses.  I believe there is a very high risk-adverse component, so I don't pay much attention to him.  Sorry.


----------



## billski (Jan 2, 2014)

flightschool said:


> Could anyone offer incite as to whether Loon or Sunday River is a better choice on Friday for good snow?  Thanks


  All things considered SR is definitely the better choice.  You're going to see a deluge of yahoos in their suv's from Boston sliding all over the road, doing rollovers and other park-like manuevers on I-93.  It's friday after all and the snow is in their backyard.  SR may see less accumulations,  but the lack of trail traffic  will offer a better quality trail condition.  SR won't see those day trippers - early weekenders, for sure.


----------



## steamboat1 (Jan 2, 2014)

From the looks of things on some of the web cams I looked at today would have been a good day to go.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 2, 2014)

This last, last call map is for ADDITIONAL SNOW.  So you'd add this to whatever you already have.  This is from Bastardi's kid.  Hopefully it's wrong as it reigns me in a bit over some people's calls, but I think he's right as I'm expecting 8" and I'm in his 5-9 band.


----------



## dlague (Jan 2, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> This last, last call map is for ADDITIONAL SNOW.  So you'd add this to whatever you already have.  This is from Bastardi's kid.  Hopefully it's wrong as it reigns me in a bit over some people's calls, but I think he's right as I'm expecting 8" and I'm in his 5-9 band.



Well that 3-5" section blows, however it is already, wrong.  I live in southern to central NH and we have already hit the 6" range and the snowfall is picking up!  the earlier map appears to be more correct!


----------



## bigbog (Jan 2, 2014)

skifastr said:


> Ive read that staying hydrated promotes circulation because your blood thickens with dehydration.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Jan 2, 2014)

dlague said:


> Well that 3-5" section blows, however it is already, wrong.  I live in southern to central NH and we have already hit the 6" range and the snowfall is picking up!  the earlier map appears to be more correct!


That map is in addition to what you've already received.


----------



## flightschool (Jan 2, 2014)

billski said:


> All things considered SR is definitely the better choice.  You're going to see a deluge of yahoos in their suv's from Boston sliding all over the road, doing rollovers and other park-like manuevers on I-93.  It's friday after all and the snow is in their backyard.  SR may see less accumulations,  but the lack of trail traffic  will offer a better quality trail condition.  SR won't see those day trippers - early weekenders, for sure.



Thank you!  I'm actually an early weekender from Boston haha.  I guess i'll gut it out tonight and stay over at SR


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 2, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> That map is in addition to what you've already received.




I even had it in all-caps!   What more could I do?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 2, 2014)

The Low is tracking a bit closer to the coast than the models had it, this is good news.


----------



## soxfan2 (Jan 2, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> The Low is tracking a bit closer to the coast than the models had it, this is good news.



God, I hope so. Whaleback (Enfield, NH) needs it!!!


----------



## WJenness (Jan 2, 2014)

Updated NWS Snowfall map for Metro Boston:


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 2, 2014)

Before anyone freaks the hell out, this model defaults at 10:1


----------



## Tin (Jan 2, 2014)

Seeing that 1-2" per hour snow now.in Providence.


----------



## vermonter44 (Jan 2, 2014)

3 down in south Jersey. Coming down hard still.


----------



## Rowsdower (Jan 3, 2014)

Wind is really picking up in North Jersey now.


----------



## Cornhead (Jan 3, 2014)

Didn't snow much more after I got home, 7 o'clock last night, maybe an inch, 6" total. Hopefully there's more at Platty. I'm in Oneonta now, 88 isn't bad, a truck blew by me doing about 80, I've been able to go 55-60 comfortably.


----------



## ScottySkis (Jan 3, 2014)

Platty is reporting 9 inches. About that were I live to nice and fluffy.


----------



## drjeff (Jan 3, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Before anyone freaks the hell out, this model defaults at 10:1



This map appears to have OVER estimated what fell at my house up in the NE corner of CT 

TV weatherman in all out defer and deflect mode about why this storm DIDN'T produce about 1/2 as much snow as they were calling for, even last night!  Winds are HOWLING though!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 3, 2014)

drjeff said:


> *
> TV weatherman in all out defer and deflect mode about why this storm DIDN'T produce about 1/2 as much snow as they were calling for, even last night! *



Even at the 11th hour.

There were NWS stations INCREASING their snowfall predictions based on radar as late as 11pm, which never materialized.  They would have been better had they left them alone.  

Just goes to show you that man is a LONG way from accurately being able to predict the weather despite best efforts.  Heck, south Jersey was supposed to get a dusting to maybe a few inches, and they got pounded the most down here!

EDIT: goof


----------



## ScottySkis (Jan 3, 2014)

On Facebook Roxury NY hill got about 16-18 inches of fluffy light beautiful snow.


----------



## moguler6 (Jan 3, 2014)

They got it right in North Shore Mass!  We're buried.  Easily 20" at my house


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 3, 2014)

Scotty said:


> On Facebook Roxury NY hill got about 16-18 inches of fluffy light beautiful snow.



100% open

Finally.

EDIT:  Though I just went to the website and it says 14" - 16", but I like yours better!  Either way, that's a spot that did verify.  But there were a lot of places that overperformed and a lot of places that underperformed expectations.


----------



## wa-loaf (Jan 3, 2014)

drjeff said:


> This map appears to have OVER estimated what fell at my house up in the NE corner of CT
> 
> TV weatherman in all out defer and deflect mode about why this storm DIDN'T produce about 1/2 as much snow as they were calling for, even last night!  Winds are HOWLING though!



Mount Snow is reporting 15" in the last 24hrs.

My unofficial observation in my yard is "Hmm, that looks like about 8" ...


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## 〽❄❅ (Jan 3, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> 100% open
> 
> Finally.
> 
> EDIT:  Though I just went to the website and it says 14" - 16", but I like yours better!  Either way, that's a spot that did verify.  But there were a lot of places that overperformed and a lot of places that underperformed expectations.


- any confirmation of that 14"-16" total? TWC says 6" past 24h, Platty's website says 6-8" last night: "1.3.14Good Morning Powderhounds...we received 14-16" of NEW SNOW from this storm as another 6-8" of NEW SNOW fell just last night.." -


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## 〽❄❅ (Jan 3, 2014)

wa-loaf said:


> Mount Snow is reporting 15" in the last 24hrs.
> 
> My unofficial observation in my yard is "Hmm, that looks like about 8" ...


8" sounds right, the site says 15" Since Thursday, 8" last night: "Updated at: _01/03/2014 at 08:00 AM_ 

Good Morning skiers and riders! We received another 8 inches of fresh snow last night bumping the total accumulation up to 15 inches since Thursday morning!!"


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## drjeff (Jan 3, 2014)

wa-loaf said:


> Mount Snow is reporting 15" in the last 24hrs.
> 
> My unofficial observation in my yard is "Hmm, that looks like about 8" ...



I'll have visual proof of Mount Snow's total later this afternoon.  Of course if it's windy, I'm expecting my back deck to have between 3" and 5 feet based on how the wind hammers it


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## wa-loaf (Jan 3, 2014)

〽❄❅;810345 said:
			
		

> 8" sounds right, the site says 15" Since Thursday, 8" last night: "Updated at: _01/03/2014 at 08:00 AM_
> 
> Good Morning skiers and riders! We received another 8 inches of fresh snow last night bumping the total accumulation up to 15 inches since Thursday morning!!"





drjeff said:


> I'll have visual proof of Mount Snow's total later this afternoon.  Of course if it's windy, I'm expecting my back deck to have between 3" and 5 feet based on how the wind hammers it



I was just going by snow totals Ski The East posted on Facebook. The 8" is my yard here in Mass.


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## wa-loaf (Jan 3, 2014)

Hope everyone can get out skiing. I've got work I couldn't get out of.


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## deadheadskier (Jan 3, 2014)

Booting up at Crotched.  Appears to be about a foot here.


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## Quietman (Jan 3, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> Booting up at Crotched.  Appears to be about a foot here.



I'm jealous!!! I'm sitting 12 miles away working, after clearing the 12" off my driveway.  I may try to get there tonight.


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## KD7000 (Jan 3, 2014)

wa-loaf said:


> Hope everyone can get out skiing. I've got work I couldn't get out of.


I decided to come into work today and save the vacation day.  I'll be up at Wawa sometime this weekend...


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## HD333 (Jan 3, 2014)

Wife and kids are home but I have been off work since before Christmas, leaving now wouldn't look good, so I  am holding us back from leaving for VT early.  I suck. 


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## skiking4 (Jan 3, 2014)

Hunter is DEEP


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## WJenness (Jan 3, 2014)

wa-loaf said:


> Hope everyone can get out skiing. I've got work I couldn't get out of.



Typing this from my desk. :-/


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## St. Bear (Jan 3, 2014)

They're reporting 10+" Magic, and I'd say it's about right. Maybe 80% open, most everything but the steepest parts of the upper mountain.


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## vermonter44 (Jan 3, 2014)

About 12" in south jersey. Couldn't get to skiing today due to work and plow the parking lot. (Have a plow from living in Vermont.) We got alot more snow than predicted.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 3, 2014)

Just got to Roxury good snow I did three runs so far. Cold not to bad drinking tea now and going back out in few minutes.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 3, 2014)

Today actually wasn't so cold or windy. Would be an epic day if I could get the car out.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 3, 2014)

Scotty said:


> Just got to Roxury good snow I did three runs so far. Cold not to bad drinking tea now and going back out in few minutes.



When did you get there, like 2:00?  

Be sure to get that free beer at 4pm!


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## ScottySkis (Jan 3, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> When did you get there, like 2:00?
> 
> Be sure to get that free beer at 4pm!



130 pm it cold but I taking breaks whiskey in car for tonight, free beer is awesome.:beer:


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## HD333 (Jan 3, 2014)

Anyone venture up 91 yet?  How are the roads?


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## twinplanx (Jan 3, 2014)

Scotty said:


> 130 pm it cold but I taking breaks whiskey in car for tonight, free beer is awesome.:beer:



Don't drink & drive Scotty :-( 

Get high and fly ;-) 

Sent from my SCH-S735C using Tapatalk


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## ScottySkis (Jan 3, 2014)

twinplanx said:


> Don't drink & drive Scotty :-(
> 
> Get high and fly ;-)
> 
> Sent from my SCH-S735C using Tapatalk



Lol I don't the whiskey is for drinking in the hotel. I be enjoying herb after some great pizza dinner.


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## twinplanx (Jan 3, 2014)

Good stuff Scotty. Enjoy the ride!! 

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## Bene288 (Jan 3, 2014)

Scotty, where in the world is there a hotel in or around Roxbury?


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## ScottySkis (Jan 3, 2014)

Bene288 said:


> Scotty, where in the world is there a hotel in or around Roxbury?



Margretvilllllllue NY 69$ a night. No pizza tonight.they forgot the order.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 3, 2014)

Scotty said:


> *Margretvilllllllue NY 69$ a night.*



Really?  If the sheets arent blood stained I might have to check that out.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 3, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Really?  If the sheets arent blood stained I might have to check that out.



No blood here. They steal your pizza In town don't order from Donatalos here. I in hotel th pin walls no dinner. But microwave works and fridge big here by Hess on 28 , bloody hoooweeen. For real about pizza make you. wait an hour then you friend goes to get it and pizza place tells him no it was never ordered at 6 ppm I want pizza. No lie sorry hotel good . Pizza no reviews WFT


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 4, 2014)

Scotty said:


> No blood here. They steal your pizza In town don't order from Donatalos here. I in hotel th pin walls no dinner. But microwave works and fridge big here by Hess on 28 , bloody hoooweeen. For real about pizza make you. wait an hour then you friend goes to get it and pizza place tells him no it was never ordered at 6 ppm I want pizza. No lie sorry hotel good . Pizza no reviews WFT




I think I kindof understand.


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## jaysunn (Jan 4, 2014)

I hit up Catamount, t was so sweet.  TR posted in Ski forum.  Storm worked out so well.


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## St. Bear (Jan 4, 2014)

Lots of fresh tracks to be had at Ragged, if you are willing to work for them.


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## xwhaler (Jan 4, 2014)

St. Bear said:


> Lots of fresh tracks to be had at Ragged, if you are willing to work for them.



Nice!   Somewhere in the ravine I assume?     Undecided between Pats or Ragged tomorrow....pats voucher I wanna burn or Ragged BOGO

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## St. Bear (Jan 4, 2014)

Yeah, the Ravine. Only Pel's Pass was open, so you had to cut through the woods to get the goods, but it was worth it.


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## Cornhead (Jan 4, 2014)

View attachment 10124


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## Cornhead (Jan 4, 2014)




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## Savemeasammy (Jan 4, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Really?  If the sheets arent blood stained I might have to check that out.



Other stains that occur more commonly on sheets are cool?!  Maybe you could throw a pillow and a sleeping bag in the trunk just to be safe 


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## Cornhead (Jan 4, 2014)

Savemeasammy said:


> Other stains that occur more commonly on sheets are cool?!  Maybe you could throw a pillow and a sleeping bag in the trunk just to be safe
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



The Margaretville Motel isn't bad at all, two queen beds, small tube TV, microwave, fridge, and coffee pot. It's about 10 miles from the hill. Donatello's pizza I couldn't tell you, they claimed I didn't order a pie. The doors were locked at 7 PM on a Friday night. I thought maybe I had actually ordered the pie from somewhere else, checked my phone, nope, it was them. They told me it would be an hour. Very strange.


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