# Christmas Week Weather



## skiberg (Dec 20, 2010)

Anyone have any idea on potential forecast or storms for the Christmas week???


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## billski (Dec 20, 2010)

which week we talking about?
There are a couple threads going.for 26-27 and 21-22


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## skiberg (Dec 20, 2010)

From Christmas day until after the new year. Looks like we might get a little bit of upslope snow from this current storm, but NWA is saying sleet over northern NH tomorrow. That is better than rain but will keep the totals down. Really want to know if anyone has insight on the potential for the storms right after Christmas.


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## tarponhead (Dec 20, 2010)

In the Philly area, forecast dudes (weatherunderground.com) have their eye on a Christmas night to Sunday event. Models kinda pretty divergent right now but calling for either a "once in a century "La Nina" snow event or a bust non-event....   I could do that with a flip of the coin.

Fun all the same.


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## Glenn (Dec 21, 2010)

Small rumblings about something Christmas day into day after Christmas...probably too early to tell.


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## drjeff (Dec 21, 2010)

Glenn said:


> Small rumblings about something Christmas day into day after Christmas...probably too early to tell.



Bingo!  This possible event will probably go through model wise what the last couple of events have done over the next few days.  Go from "keep an eye on it" to "okay looking interesting" to all of the sudden "WOW! storm of the millenium!" to "well that model doesn't look nearly as good" to "cr@p it looks like it could miss" to "will we even get some flurries from this?"  Doh!  The joys of Eastern weather forcasting!

The good thing is that there's a TON of energy in the West now, and it's going to come East eventually with multiple reinforcements.  So we just need to get things to head into the Northeast now

Sorry to quote myself,  but the last couple of model runs are suggesting now that we're somewhere between the "okay this looks interesting" to "WOW! storm of the millenium"   Only time (and a couple of hundred different model runs between now and then) will tell


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## jrmagic (Dec 21, 2010)

C'mon ... there really is a Santa and he's gonna send a foot of fresh our way


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## Madroch (Dec 21, 2010)

What  I wouldn't give for a decent snow here in CT-- seems like we have been in a snow hole for quite a while... if that is just not going to happen, at least show our friends to the north some love so we can go visit!


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## kingslug (Dec 21, 2010)

For whatever reason the rest of the world is getting slammed...England???


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## drjeff (Dec 21, 2010)

Mega hype excitement starting model wise now(and remember the low that *could* turn into this storm is still about 36 hours away from coming onshore in California right now!) so alot WILL change over the next 5 to 6 days for sure!

This is ONE model run for next Monday.  The low is pretty darn close to the benchmark 40N/70W for a big New England snow event.  And the models have an estimated central pressure just slightly lower (stronger) than what Hurricane Gloria had when it came ashore on Long Island in '85!







Some precip estimates I've seen floating around (and remember this storm is still far out over the Pacific off the Southern California Coast right now) has 2+ inches of precip associated with it, and with the potential air mass around that could result in a 10:1 to 12:1 (inches of snow:inches of melted precip) ratio


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## ZYDECORICH (Dec 21, 2010)

drjeff said:


> Mega hype excitement starting model wise now(and remember the low that *could* turn into this storm is still about 36 hours away from coming onshore in California right now!) so alot WILL change over the next 5 to 6 days for sure!
> 
> This is ONE model run for next Monday.  The low is pretty darn close to the benchmark 40N/70W for a big New England snow event.  And the models have an estimated central pressure just slightly lower (stronger) than what Hurricane Gloria had when it came ashore on Long Island in '85!
> 
> ...



oh how i love those high 900 millibar low pressure systems. it would be like a bomb going off if things line up right.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 21, 2010)

Stop teasing!


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## Puck it (Dec 21, 2010)

I really need to some POW!!!!!


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## snoseek (Dec 21, 2010)

I need pow just for the simple fact that I don't own a normal east coast ski and don't plan on buying any. It is time to get something going on this side of the country!


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## gmcunni (Dec 22, 2010)

weather guy on tv (that's my primary source of info other than here) said this morning that new models don't look good for snow  in NE next weekend.


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## drjeff (Dec 22, 2010)

Unfortunately for the Northeast the last couple of model runs are starting to think (and keep thinking through successive model runs) that this storm may not end up tracking as far North as it was looking like it would this time yesterday, so we'll see.  The models are still though showing that this storm could be a real powerfull one when it hits the waters off the East Coast,  so gotta keep a close eye on things for later Sunday/Monday.

Please do remember though that the core of what could become this storm for the Northeast in 4 to 5 days will just come onshore in the LA/San Diego area today, so there's still alot that will be determined


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 22, 2010)

Meanwhile, I'm still waiting to have to plow my driveway. Only 5 inches currently at my stake. So far this is shaping up a lot like last year when I only had to plow twice all winter and had a max 11 inches at my stake. :-x
Why doesn't everything just keep going south. :angry: 'Cause they really need the big storms in Baltimore and DC while I sit here in the cold with my five lousy inches and no powder days.






Man, I really need to get out and ski. Maybe I should go tomorrow or Friday. I just really need a good powder day. I'm a junkie who hasn't had a fix in a long time. You would think that after so long I would have kicked the habit. Screw that! I NEED this! :lol:


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## drjeff (Dec 22, 2010)

from_the_NEK said:


> Meanwhile, I'm still waiting to have to plow my driveway. Only 5 inches currently at my stake. So far this is shaping up a lot like last year when I only had to plow twice all winter and had a max 11 inches at my stake. :-x
> Why doesn't everything just keep going south. :angry: 'Cause they really need the big storms in Baltimore and DC while I sit here in the cold with my five lousy inches and no powder days.



Short version. It's La Nina's fault! The Northeast is missing out right now because of what's going on (or better put NOT really going on) over basically Greenland right now

The usually dominant upper level steering currents that typically this time of year set up over Greenland and help steer systems upto the North (with respect to the East Coast) aren't particularly strong right now, especially compared the steering currents over the Northern Pacific that are helping drive systems in a basically West to East pattern    So us New England snow lovers need to start rooting for "Team Greenland" right now to win the epic battle its in with "Team Northern Pacific"


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## 4aprice (Dec 22, 2010)

The bad news is La Nina and what DrJeff described very well.  I've been worried about this since it was predicted back in the summer and yes its hard to watch the west get pounded day after day. Hopefully as this event fades the mega blocking will fade as well and the back end of the season will be awesome.

 The good news is modern snowmaking.  Back in the 70's when snowmaking was just getting up to speed a season like this would have been a total disaster and very limited.  I can only speak for the Pocono region where we have had little more then a dusting this season but the conditions right now are great.  Not only have they been pouring it on and building a mega base but the quality of snow they are shooting is wonderful.  If we are to get any natural it will only make it better and on the down side bring out the hordes.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## snoseek (Dec 22, 2010)

Well so far I am happy that I bought the Boyne pass.


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## drjeff (Dec 22, 2010)

Latest runs in - and this storm is looking interesting too say the least.  Have had now multiple models runs suggesting a BIG storm for the mid-atlantic (some folks are even starting to compare the potential of this one to the March 1993 storm that just pummled the East Coast!)  What the last couple of model runs have shown though, that isn't the greatest news for most New England Ski Areas, is that this storm could very well be in ideal position with LOTS of strength offshore to produce BIG snows up until about Atlantic City, then the models suggest that the low wants to almost go due East for a while before turning back to the North/Northeast out East of Nantucket.  That would keep the potential HEAVY snow accumulations more to Southern New England and lighter accumulations to the mountains of central/northern New England.

*If* this scenario pans out, we could easily be looking at FEET of snow along the I-95 corridor from VA to Boston, with what could be a quick fall off in snowfall amounts to the North and West of that corridor of I-95 - some of the estimates based on potential melted liquid amounts and like snowfall ratios could see say NYC and Boston with about 2 feet and maybe only 6" in Albany and a foot in Portland, Maine.  Storm speed wise, this is looking like a Monday into Tuesday event for the New England.


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 22, 2010)

> I can only speak for the Pocono region where we have had little more then a dusting this season but the conditions right now are great. Not only have they been pouring it on and building a mega base but the quality of snow they are shooting is wonderful. If we are to get any natural it will only make it better and on the down side bring out the hordes.



Still not a knee+ deep powder day...




> we could easily be looking at FEET of snow along the I-95 corridor from VA to Boston, with what could be a quick fall off in snowfall amounts to the North and West of that corridor of I-95



Last year all over again. uke: Huge snows in the flatlands where they don't need it, and my shovel is still in the attic :roll:. I don't know if I can go 2 full years without a legit faceshot. Watch things turn around when I'm in Mexico for a week later this winter and that is the only major storm that decides it is going to push the blocker out of the way and score a touchdown in Northern NE. Sounds just like my fantasy Football team this year, "Too Little, Too late".


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## skiberg (Dec 22, 2010)

check out www.accuweather.com. Good analysis of the storm. They say some of the same but also suggest that the storm could come right up the coast and pummel interior NE. In any event it looks good for me, my house in in Northern NH.  We are probably going to see some snow either way. Keep in mind that we have had about 2 feet in the past ten or so days.


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## mlctvt (Dec 22, 2010)

skiberg said:


> check out www.accuweather.com. Good analysis of the storm. They say some of the same but also suggest that the storm could come right up the coast and pummel interior NE. In any event it looks good for me, my house in in Northern NH.  We are probably going to see some snow either way. Keep in mind that we have had about 2 feet in the past ten or so days.



Accuweather's update a few minutes ago now says the storm is trending more south. Possible sizable snow for southern areas that never get it.  Sux .. Hopefully next update it trends back north.


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 22, 2010)

mlctvt said:


> Accuweather's update a few minutes ago now says the storm is trending more south. Possible sizable snow for southern areas that *have been getting consistently slammed with obscene amounts of snow starting with several storms last winter and all they do is complain about it*.  Sux .. Hopefully next update it trends back north.



Fixxed it for ya 

People in the hills of North Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia can barely comprehend what to do with the snow. 

Meanwhile, in the NEK, people's snowshoes are hard to find amongst the cobwebs and plow the guys are going broke.


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## skiberg (Dec 22, 2010)

Read the whole update. After is goes south it either comes up the coast and kills us, or goes out to sea and then wraps back around like the last few storms.


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## drjeff (Dec 22, 2010)

skiberg said:


> Read the whole update. After is goes south it either comes up the coast and kills us, or goes out to sea and then wraps back around like the last few storms.



As of now, the biggest things that are different about the models this time last week verses for this coming event is that 1) the models are more in consensus with a much tighter series of storm tracks between the furthest West and the furthest East  2) The models also now have had a series of runs (4 or 5 modeling cycles) showing similar tracks (last week we had 1 or 2 model runs that showed a mega snow track and then poof! gone) 3) this storm in the models looks to be much more of a coast hugger (atleast from GA/SC upto Atlantic City or so) before you start to see much deviation in the tracks with a shift to the East vs. still coast hugging.


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## skiberg (Dec 22, 2010)

Are you in agreement that it looks like much better that NE will be gettign some snow out of this. Also, if it does miss, do you think we have the chance of the wrap around type snow we have been getting across northern NH?


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 22, 2010)

skiberg said:


> Are you in agreement that it looks like much better that NE will be gettign some snow out of this. Also, if it does miss, do you think we have the chance of the wrap around type snow we have been getting across northern NH?



From what I'm seeing,no and no.


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## drjeff (Dec 22, 2010)

skiberg said:


> Are you in agreement that it looks like much better that NE will be gettign some snow out of this. Also, if it does miss, do you think we have the chance of the wrap around type snow we have been getting across northern NH?





from_the_NEK said:


> From what I'm seeing,no and no.



Compared to this time last week, the storm is modeled more consistently to come further up the coast, so that's much better for New England than the last one.  Also wrap around wise, once the storm passes, all indications are that there's going to be some backside winds that should kick in and start producing.  *If* the models are correct with respect to both winds and shear size of the storm, it's could get close to, if not all the way to a strength and barometric pressure that one usually sees in a Cat 1 hurricane - once again we're talking 5 days out, so lots can change, as the anticipated track takes this storm across Southern California starting now, through AZ-NM-TX likely tracking near the Northern Gulf Coast before it's projected to take a sharp turn to the North somewhere around the Florida Panhandle and then track, just offshore up the East Coast - that's seems pretty likely modelwise now - it's the will it turn East or now that seems to be more of the question to be answered over the next few days


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## riverc0il (Dec 22, 2010)

Someone just tell me if I should take a vaca day on Monday or save it for later in the week. Friday is a holiday so I need to make the call tomorrow.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 22, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> Someone just tell me if I should take a vaca day on Monday or save it for later in the week. Friday is a holiday so I need to make the call tomorrow.



Sounds like if it pans out Tuesday would be the day.


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## polski (Dec 22, 2010)

from_the_NEK said:


> Watch things turn around when I'm in Mexico for a week later this winter and that is the only major storm that decides it is going to push the blocker out of the way and score a touchdown in Northern NE.



At least you won't have to look at snow in Mexico. I was in Ireland earlier this month and saw beautiful snowfields atop their mountains (which top out at > 3,000'), while back home we'd had no snow at all yet (that big upslope blower event in the Greens happened while I was away). It is impossible to rent skis in Ireland, other than at two "dry hills" on golf courses with mats with some sort of lubrication misting system so they are "skiable" even with zero snow. Even though I knew there would be widespread snowfall while I was there - for, according to the locals, just the second time in a decade - it was a family trip and I knew there wouldn't be time for bc exploration to make it worth schlepping my sticks over.


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## HowieT2 (Dec 22, 2010)

this is sickening

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2010/post-492-0-88312800-1293065227.jpg


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## riverc0il (Dec 22, 2010)

HowieT2 said:


> this is sickening


Gee wiz, don't jump off the bridge yet. We are off to a great start, trail counts and base depths are great for December considering we have yet to receive a region wide mountain dump yet, and it is currently snowing in the mountains with a few inches predicted over the course of the next 24 hours. I'm already planning my next powder day (third in a row) for Friday. Sure, the Monday event might be a coastal dump and miss the mountains. But the pattern we are in is great! The big one might not be here this weekend but it is only a matter of time.


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## drjeff (Dec 23, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> Someone just tell me if I should take a vaca day on Monday or save it for later in the week. Friday is a holiday so I need to make the call tomorrow.



Flip a coin as of now Riv.  This one as of now looks like it's going to be real close from being a major powder event vs. just a couple of inches of snow.  Realistically still a good 48 hours or so before *some* degree of certainty on the call for New England can be made


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## St. Bear (Dec 23, 2010)

This guy from Accuweather thinks the storm is going to skirt underneath the mountains of NE.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/43380/euro-and-gfs-both-go-to-the-big-storm.asp

I'll take it down here.  I've only seen snow once this year, which is odd even for NJ.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 23, 2010)

I've got about 2-3 inches at my house, so at least it should be a white Christmas around here.


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## WinnChill (Dec 23, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> Someone just tell me if I should take a vaca day on Monday or save it for later in the week. Friday is a holiday so I need to make the call tomorrow.



Snow aside, the winds may be a factor for wind holds, not to mention driving conditions if this thing really hugs the coast.  Once this storm clears, the rest of the week looks quiet so maybe Friday wouldn't be such a bad idea.


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## St. Bear (Dec 23, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Snow aside, the winds may be a factor for wind holds, not to mention driving conditions if this thing really hugs the coast.  Once this storm clears, the rest of the week looks quiet so *maybe Friday wouldn't be such a bad idea.*



Score!  For once.


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## kingslug (Dec 23, 2010)

I have to admit that reading reports from out west...has gotten me down. yes Hunter covered the whole place..but its still gun puke.....and airfare is a little off the wall right now...hope my trip out there at the end of Jan gets me some...never know though.


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## skiberg (Dec 23, 2010)

The storm prediction models seem to be reaching some consensus. Here is what snowforecast said at noon today "an all-out blizzard will unfold Sunday night and Monday at least part of New England." Looking better and better for significant snow. Seems like we may have a situation where its a question of how much and where, as opposed to whether we will get anything.


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## WinnChill (Dec 23, 2010)

skiberg said:


> The storm prediction models seem to be reaching some consensus. Here is what snowforecast said at noon today "an all-out blizzard will unfold Sunday night and Monday at least part of New England." Looking better and better for significant snow. Seems like we may have a situation where its a question of how much and where, as opposed to whether we will get anything.



Just to be sure you're referencing the right folks--we haven't called for this.  Was is someone else you were thinking of?  I hope we get nailed but we're still evaluating more data as we speak.


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## skiberg (Dec 23, 2010)

Cant you just let visions of sugar plums and blizzards dance in my head, its Christmas. I got that right form Accuweather.com. Eliot Abrahams and another did a webcast and reviewed the models. They showed the European and GFS coming more into agreement. Look into it though i am no anywhere near an expert; just a weather junkie. It was posted at noon.


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## WinnChill (Dec 23, 2010)

skiberg said:


> Cant you just let visions of sugar plums and blizzards dance in my head, its Christmas. I got that right form Accuweather.com. Eliot Abrahams and another did a webcast and reviewed the models. They showed the European and GFS coming more into agreement. Look into it though i am no anywhere near an expert; just a weather junkie. It was posted at noon.



Ah, no worries--just wondering.  It still looks like a good chance of if hitting us in some fashion but I wasn't too impressed with the GFS.  I'm still waiting on the free version of the Euro--some weather outfits get an early jump on it with their paid subscriptions for quicker more detailed versions of it.  We'll see if we can dream of deep pow this weekend!  :-D


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## skiberg (Dec 23, 2010)

Great. By the way Snowforecast is absolutely the best winter weather site around. I tell every skier I know to go to it. Happy holidays.


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## WinnChill (Dec 23, 2010)

skiberg said:


> Great. By the way Snowforecast is absolutely the best winter weather site around. I tell every skier I know to go to it. Happy holidays.



Wow, thank you Skiberg!  Very kind of you!  We certainly try our best at what we do.

The latest Euro does look pretty good leaving a good chance of getting crushed by this thing.  Other model data isn't bad either but it's going to be very close.  As DrJeff has already covered, all this storm has to do is just twitch and it's out to sea but I'm liking our chances a little better right now.  I'll be tracking it through Christmas and will stay close to the forum in between Christmas cookies and presents.  

Happy Holidays to you as well!

:beer:


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## hammer (Dec 23, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Wow, thank you Skiberg!  Very kind of you!  We certainly try our best at what we do.
> 
> The latest Euro does look pretty good leaving a good chance of getting crushed by this thing.  Other model data isn't bad either but it's going to be very close.  As DrJeff has already covered, all this storm has to do is just twitch and it's out to sea but I'm liking our chances a little better right now.  I'll be tracking it through Christmas and will stay close to the forum in between Christmas cookies and presents.
> 
> ...


What's the forecast for SNE and the Mid-Atlantic?  I have some travel planned for Sunday and I need to see if I can time my trip or if I should postpone it for a few days.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 23, 2010)

FIS is not very bullish about it for ski country: http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/potential-xmas-weekend-noreaster/


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## soulseller (Dec 23, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Wow, thank you Skiberg!  Very kind of you!  We certainly try our best at what we do.
> 
> The latest Euro does look pretty good leaving a good chance of getting crushed by this thing.  Other model data isn't bad either but it's going to be very close.  As DrJeff has already covered, all this storm has to do is just twitch and it's out to sea but I'm liking our chances a little better right now.  I'll be tracking it through Christmas and will stay close to the forum in between Christmas cookies and presents.
> 
> ...



I seem to recall someone referring to the euro model as the red headed stepchild recently...


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## amf (Dec 23, 2010)

Canaan Valley, WV... first chance of a day without snow is Wednesday after Christmas.  About 16" of powder on the ground now.  Tree lines are skiing great.


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## drjeff (Dec 23, 2010)

soulseller said:


> I seem to recall someone referring to the euro model as the red headed stepchild recently...



I'd be that person   Winn refrained from that "Euro lovefest" that was going on last week :lol:


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## drjeff (Dec 23, 2010)

Its going to be so close with this one.  Right now it could very well end up being something snow wise where the outer Cape gets nuked, at the Bourne/Sagamore about 6" or so and by the time you get back to the stretch of I-95 between Providence and 128 you could be talking just a couple of inches.  

As of now though it does appear that the bulk of the heavy stuff will miss essentially all of the major New England ski areas to the East   But every little shift East or West in this one Sunday night/Monday will/could make a big difference either way in snowfall totals and how far away from the shoreline the snow piles up


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## WinnChill (Dec 23, 2010)

GFS ensembles were a _little_ better earlier today, hense my slight glimmer of hope but I'll hold off of the cartwheels.  18Z just came in...not bad with some eye candy for Maine...still no cartwheels though--I should probably stretch first anyways.


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## riverc0il (Dec 23, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Snow aside, the winds may be a factor for wind holds, not to mention driving conditions if this thing really hugs the coast.  Once this storm clears, the rest of the week looks quiet so maybe Friday wouldn't be such a bad idea.


Already got Friday off. Four Friday's off in a row FTW! Keeping my options open on Tuesday, hopefully this thing pulls inland a little more than current models are suggesting!


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## ZYDECORICH (Dec 23, 2010)

looks like it might be another fish storm...trying to reverse karma by posting this.


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## ZYDECORICH (Dec 25, 2010)

ZYDECORICH said:


> looks like it might be another fish storm...trying to reverse karma by posting this.



reverse karma taking effect


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## WinnChill (Dec 25, 2010)

Hold on tight, 'cause the storm is on Sunday night!  The models have honed in on a superb track for New England pow setting us up GREAT for the rest of the week!  We're _definately_ planning on upping totals to our forecasts in the morning!


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## wa-loaf (Dec 25, 2010)

Blizzard warning for eastern MA. 15-20"!


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## WinnChill (Dec 25, 2010)

Rejoice! 

And we'll highlight which resorts get the most!


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## kingslug (Dec 25, 2010)

Blizzard warning for Long island..which is going to make it a bitch to get up to Hunter.....but I'll probably get up there somehow...the Jeep is unbeatable!!!  The Kaatskill Flyer..not so sure about.


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## catskills (Dec 25, 2010)

kingslug said:


> Blizzard warning for Long island..which is going to make it a bitch to get up to Hunter.....but I'll probably get up there somehow...the Jeep is unbeatable!!!  The Kaatskill Flyer..not so sure about.



Don't worry about the Kaatskill flyer.  If you want to ski tomorrow you better start packing immediately and drive north tonight NOW!  I doubt a lot of folks are going to get out of the NY city, Long Island, or NJ tomorrow,  which means great snow and short lift lines in the Catskills.  :beer:  Tuesday on the other hand I would expect long lift lines all over the Northeast.  

Also note that lake effect snow is not shown.  Catskills have been known to get lake effect snow.


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## Greg (Dec 25, 2010)

Sundown FTW!


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## kingslug (Dec 25, 2010)

I'm heading up Monday...GF wants to see the tree at Rock Center Sunday....that might be ...difficult.


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## kingslug (Dec 25, 2010)

And I do love how they try to predict these things..as if they can tell how much is going to fall...and create nice pictures to show everyone.


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## WinnChill (Dec 26, 2010)

hammer said:


> What's the forecast for SNE and the Mid-Atlantic?  I have some travel planned for Sunday and I need to see if I can time my trip or if I should postpone it for a few days.



I'm sorry Hammer--I didn't see your post til now.  I don't like leaving people hanging like that especially with travel plans but I just missed it.


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## billski (Dec 26, 2010)

catskills said:


> Also note that lake effect snow is not shown.  Catskills have been known to get lake effect snow.



The winds will be from the north, so lake effect is probably not going to happen.


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## WinnChill (Dec 26, 2010)

Yeah, light/residual lake effect for them will set up on Tuesday with winds shifting back NW...very little accumulations if any


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## hammer (Dec 26, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> I'm sorry Hammer--I didn't see your post til now.  I don't like leaving people hanging like that especially with travel plans but I just missed it.


No problem...decided to go skiing today instead. Travel south will wait a few days.


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