# Get your powder this week, will be gone by next week



## powderfreak (Dec 29, 2007)

Check this out...valid January 9 - January 13.  Warm.  This is flat out
crazy that it is forecasting +16C to +18C departures from normal at 850mb
(4.5-5K feet in elevation).  It looks like its predicting actuals of +4 to
+6C (low to mid 40's) at our summit heights as an average for those days.  







Should we start making sacrifices?  Don't start with the messenger....

-Scott


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## X-Linked (Dec 29, 2007)

Forecast Shmorecast.


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## KingM (Dec 29, 2007)

Bah. It'll never happen.


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## ckofer (Dec 29, 2007)

powderfreak said:


> Check this out...valid January 9 - January 13.  Warm.  This is flat out
> crazy that it is forecasting +16C to +18C departures from normal at 850mb
> (4.5-5K feet in elevation).  It looks like its predicting actuals of +4 to
> +6C (low to mid 40's) at our summit heights as an average for those days.
> ...



*I thought I heard something about that on the tv when I was half asleep a couple days ago. I dismissed it as a dream. Damn.*


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## loafer89 (Dec 29, 2007)

There is so much snow in Western Maine that it would take a huge thaw to melt it. There is easily 1.5' - 3' of cover on the ground in most spots. My ski pole was half gone in many spots in the woods at Saddleback today.

I have heard that we can expect more artic air and storms after the 10th of the month of January.


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## Greg (Dec 29, 2007)

January 9 is a million years away as far as I'm concerned. I'm surprised by such an absolute thread title from you, Scott...


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## riverc0il (Dec 29, 2007)

Greg said:


> January 9 is a million years away as far as I'm concerned. I'm surprised by such an absolute thread title from you, Scott...


Seems pretty reasonable to me. There is powder on the way this week and next week sees a massive pattern change that pretty much all mets across the board seem to be calling with very high certainty. This shift was predicted before the season even started by long range folks dialed into overall patterns rather than forecasting. Josh Fox's SIngle Chair Weather Blog suggests breaking out the umbrella for January after this week. If Scott and Fox put up the warnings, I head their words and mentally prepare myself for the worst.


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## loafer89 (Dec 29, 2007)

These where also the same people who predicted a warm November and December and that was a bust.

From Accuweather:

Strong push of very cold air into eastern Canada Tuesday and Wednesday could be the last for quite a while as the pattern will change once again and could "lock in" through the month, see below.

*A quick note on the latest European model weekly long range forecast for North America.......*
As we suspected, last week's model forecast through mid-January might have had some issues. The latest forecast that was just issued today is back to what it has forecasting over the past few months, a return to ay time will tell persistent, and expanding ridge of high pressure in the upper-levels of the atmosphere over the eastern U.S. from January 6th through a good part of the month, while a large trough in the upper-levels of the atmosphere expands from Alaska to the West Coast. What does this mean? It means that after the 5th or 6th of January it is going to be very tough to get any real cold air into the eastern half of the U.S., including southern Manitoba/Ontario/southern Quebec and the Maritimes. Temperatures in these regions will end up above or much-above normal. The mean storm track will also shift north and west, heading up into the northern Plains and upper Midwest of the U.S. and then into northwestern Ontario. Secondary storms might reform over the Maritimes. Western Canada will turn colder compared to normal with above normal precipitation from southern BC south to the West Coast of the U.S. This type of pattern will be quite favorable for a continuation of the snowy pattern for the BC/Alberta ski resorts and even more snow events to the Vancouver area. The Plains storm track could lead to above-normal snowfall for the southeastern Prairies and northern Ontario. 

Only time will tell if this is correct


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## billski (Dec 29, 2007)

dammit, Janet! (thank you rockyhorrorpictureshow.) I'll just be forced to ski the next three days. sacrifices, sacrifices....

One scary looking chart.  Thanks, Scott.


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## powderfreak (Dec 30, 2007)

Greg said:


> January 9 is a million years away as far as I'm concerned. I'm surprised by such an absolute thread title from you, Scott...



I know, I know...but I'm realizing the warmer scenarios are more often correct than the colder ones these days.  Sad, but true and I cannot ignore all available data pointing to a serious 7-14 day warm-up.  Most of the signs point to at least a transient shot of cold air late in the month.  This is the January thaw at its finest, IMO.


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## Greg (Dec 30, 2007)

Just means we'll be skiing some spring bumps instead of powder...


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## riverc0il (Dec 30, 2007)

Greg said:


> Just means we'll be skiing some spring bumps instead of powder...


Spring skiing, indeed. :beer:


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## KingM (Dec 30, 2007)

Right, and we should have another foot or two of snow on top of it. I said this before, but we can survive a warm up practically unscathed. We already had one last week and it's already a few inches of powder away from where it was.

Bottom line is that the base is great, there's a thaw every year, and we're better prepared to handle it than we have been in a long time.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 30, 2007)

Fresh Poe tomorrow morning in the POE-Conos..


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## KingM (Dec 30, 2007)

Here is the forecast for this week in the Mad River Valley. Some cold weather, but plenty of snow.



> # Tonight: Cloudy. Snow likely late. Low 24F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Snow accumulating 2 to 4 inches.
> 
> # Tomorrow: Snow during the morning will taper off as a few snow showers during the afternoon. High 27F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 90%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.
> 
> ...



Who knows what next week brings, but this week looks like more great skiing weather.


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## powderfreak (Dec 30, 2007)

KingM said:


> Here is the forecast for this week in the Mad River Valley. Some cold weather, but plenty of snow.
> Who knows what next week brings, but this week looks like more great skiing weather.



Very, very true.  I'm skiing Tues-Sun this week...going to be sweet.


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## marcski (Dec 30, 2007)

I agree its kind of far out there too...but Herb Stevens, the skiing weatherman, seems to agree with the powderfreak...:  And, I've found his long term forecasts and trends to be fairly accurate over the years.

http://www.snocountry.com/article.php/2007122910131690


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 31, 2007)

Last year I was wearing shorts and a t-shirt January 7th. highs were in the 60's. 
This years warm-up is the typical January thaw. Hopefully we will rebound the way we did last year. 
I haven't investigated but is there supposed to be a lot of wind with the warm air? 
Warm with no wind = not so bad since the snow insulates itself with a cool layer of air.
Warm with wind = :evil: bad since the cool layer of air over the snow pack is stripped away (think reverse windchill). Leads to rapid snowmelt and/or sublimation.


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## JimG. (Dec 31, 2007)

This is the same patten I recalled from 12 years or so ago.

We discussed then that these patterns often change every 8 weeks or so.

Is it just a coincidence that my new job starts on 1/7?


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## Grassi21 (Dec 31, 2007)

JimG. said:


> This is the same patten I recalled from 12 years or so ago.
> 
> We discussed then that these patterns often change every 8 weeks or so.
> 
> Is it just a coincidence that my new job starts on 1/7?



You screwed us man.  ;-) 

Good luck in your new role.


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 31, 2007)

JimG. said:


> Is it just a coincidence that my new job starts on 1/7?



This happens to be my birthday as well. Happy freakin birthday, here is your January thaw:roll:


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## billski (Dec 31, 2007)

I can't believe how good the woods were at Mt. snow right after the rain followed by 6-10.  Never in my wildest.  I think I'm going BC and never coming back   rain or norain


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## powderfreak (Dec 31, 2007)

JimG. said:


> This is the same patten I recalled from 12 years or so ago.
> 
> We discussed then that these patterns often change every 8 weeks or so.
> 
> Is it just a coincidence that my new job starts on 1/7?



Pattern changes happen every 6 weeks on average....usually anywhere from 4-8 weeks, though.  Think back to the mid-Nov shift and the 6 week deluge of snow that followed.  Now we are already a week or two into a 4-6 week mild(er) period.  Temp averages have been above average since the pre-Xmas thaw, though at this time of year, above normal temps will still yield good snowfall as averages are well below freezing in most NE mountainous areas.

Out for the night soon...happy new years everyone!  Will be enjoying powder at Stowe tomorrow, Wed, Thurs, Fri, Sat, Sun, etc.  Life is good in Burlington!  

Take care,
-Scott


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## ajl50 (Jan 2, 2008)

Scott- 
Is it me or is there any back up to my sense that the weather is most extreme (dev. from normal)  right before a pattern change and that these changes usually come with a large storm?
The reason I ask is that I see really warm temps around the 15th and then a large storm following on the GFS and Euro models.  I also remember back a few pattern changes and see the same thing. 
Am I crazy


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## loafer89 (Jan 4, 2008)

The warm up looks to be brief and not too damaging and better times look ahead:

January Will Be Known as a Stormy Month
Friday, January 04, 2008
THE WEST COAST GETS HIT HARD BY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING... EACH STORM NEXT WEEK PUSHES THE COLD AIR BACK INTO THE EAST AS WE GO INTO A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN. 
From the Plains to the East Coast, cold air is moving away and a milder weather pattern is shaping up for about the next three-five days. As I talked about yesterday, cold air will return behind each storm that moves through. The first storm will come out of the Rockies early in the week, the second at midweek, and the third next weekend. Each one will have its share of snow and severe weather. 
I want to make a point about January. I know we all heard that the month will be mild overall. While it might be when all the numbers are tallied up, I think people will look back on the month and say how stormy it was. It's certainly not going to be like last year, when warm weather overwhelmed the entire country. In fact, I am really not in the warm camp at all. With the exception of the Southeast/South/Southwest, it really has been a cold weather pattern for a good part of the country. I can show you that on a map later this afternoon. With the La Nina roaring away (SOI Value for the month of Dec was 14.4, which indicates a strong La Nina), the contrast in warmth and cold will continue well into the month and will lead to big storms developing. I think during the month, we will see a couple of powerful storms that produce over a foot of snow in places. I don't know where that will occur just yet, I am just saying that the pattern will lead to big storms. In fact, if you take the storm coming out in the Plains Monday/Tuesday, it could be a blizzard for areas from western Nebraska to northern Minnesota. Quite a turnaround given the next couple of days will have near-record warmth prior to the storm. Even the storm coming around the 15th of the month has huge potential to bring bring heavy snows to parts of the East. From a meteorology point of view, it's a fascinating month coming up.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Jan 4, 2008)

I'm looking forward to a few days of hero snow with no crowds and just wearing a long sleeve shirt..you can turn a January thaw into a positive..and it will get cold again shortly with one of the biggest snowstorms this year on tap sometime between January and May..at least that's what accuweather said..J/K


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## SKIQUATTRO (Jan 5, 2008)

We'll be at smuggs Jan 11-16..that potential storm on the 15th would be perfect time.....no hype!!


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## Breeze (Jan 5, 2008)

The right or wrong of forecasting aside...... I think January is going to be gracious in offering something for everyone.   Heck, it pretty much has already filled that order!!!!   Pow, bumps, groomers,  woods, glades,  warm, cold,   solitude, company,  sunburn, frostbite..... its all been there already and  doesn't look like  its going away!   

Breeze


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## loafer89 (Jan 5, 2008)

I will be skiing in the Saddleback/Sugarloaf region from January 20th-23rd so hopefully we will have some new snow to play in.


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## billski (Jan 5, 2008)

If we get and keep enough of a snowpack, we'll be skiing later, but nobody will come and the resorts will close.   We'll be back to earning our turns.  Imagine a 6-month ski season.  (Now before anyone brings me to my senses with reality and facts, let me just savor my delusions for a while....


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## Mark_151 (Jan 5, 2008)

I'm looking forward to spring skiing in So. VT on Monday!


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## awf170 (Jan 5, 2008)

billski said:


> Imagine a 6-month ski season



That would be kind of crappy.  I skied in 8 different months last season, and hope to get atleast 7 this season. 


(Taking Riverc0il's place in the smart ass really long season remark)


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## loafer89 (Jan 5, 2008)

billski said:


> If we get and keep enough of a snowpack, we'll be skiing later, but nobody will come and the resorts will close. We'll be back to earning our turns. Imagine a 6-month ski season. (Now before anyone brings me to my senses with reality and facts, let me just savor my delusions for a while....


 
This is a normal and yearly spring occurance at Saddleback/Sugarloaf, feet of snow and warm weather and nobody left to ski on it.

Sugarloaf May 11th, 2007:


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## riverc0il (Jan 5, 2008)

awf170 said:


> That would be kind of crappy.  I skied in 8 different months last season, and hope to get atleast 7 this season.
> 
> 
> (Taking Riverc0il's place in the smart ass really long season remark)


Someone has to constantly be  around here....


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