# Thanksgiving Week Storm



## Boston Bulldog (Nov 22, 2013)

*What we know right now:*
1.A storm will be tracking across the Southern US bringing plenty of gulf moisture with it.
2. Energy is streaming across the northern jet stream and if it arrives at the right time, it will help guide the low up the eastern seaboard.
3. Cold air will be limited, snow will be most likely confined to north and west of 495 (Not that there's a problem with that:-D) If the coastal low does form, the possiblity a cold backside band could deliver snow to the Metro area.
4. The Euro and the GFS have been 75% onboard with this storm occurring, but there still is high uncertainty.

*What is still uncertain*
1. Will the two pieces phase in time. If the northern energy races down to the Great Lakes region too fast, the cold dome behind it will push the southern system out to sea. If this occurs there obviously will be no widespread snow (There will be up-sloping in the Greens due to the cold blast just after T-day however)
2. How strong will the storm get. Some model runs have been indicating a strong storm dumping a foot plus over the interior, all the while forming a cold sector on the backside, dumping an additional half a foot on ski country and allowing snow to reach the Boston area. Other solutions are saying that a quick slug of mousture could stream into the area delivering a quick punch of heavy wet snow, around 6-10 inches. This would occur if the storm is weaker, a solution that has been portrayed by the GFS.
3. Where the rain snow line will be located. It could range anywhere from the Lake Sunapee region all the way down to Metro Boston. The farther south the line, the stronger and colder the storm is.

There is still plenty to sort out in the coming days. It could be a whiff or ski country could jackpot. We will know in the coming days. Despite all of this uncertainty another cold blast will follow for next weekend, giving great snowmaking weather for all (that is if the wind cooperates).


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## Boston Bulldog (Nov 22, 2013)

I don't know about you, but I'm getting vibes that this will be similar to last December's storm. (Euclid)

A whiff seems unlikely, and I think that anywhere north and west of 495 will get at least their 1st "plowable" snow of the year

Now it's time to wait...


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## Boston Bulldog (Nov 22, 2013)

This sums up the situation well


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## Boston Bulldog (Nov 23, 2013)

Similar predictions today, but the storm is looking a_little_ warmer and looks to be tracking more west than anticipated. Most likely going to shoot right up the Canal.


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## catsup948 (Nov 23, 2013)

West and warm is good for ski country just not to warm.  This could be a decent snow event if the timing is right.  

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## Boston Bulldog (Nov 23, 2013)

Wow, I'm surprised people aren't interested in this storm. This could be a great way to kick off the winter and could help build snowpack early.


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## Boston Bulldog (Nov 23, 2013)

hell yeah!!



GFS FOR THE WIN!


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## Boston Bulldog (Nov 23, 2013)

Dumped!


As exciting as this looks, the NAM has to rain on our parade, literally


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## Savemeasammy (Nov 24, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Wow, I'm surprised people aren't interested in this storm. This could be a great way to kick off the winter and could help build snowpack early.



I'm sure EVERYONE is interested!  I, for one, have nothing meaningful to contribute, but believe me, I'm lurking...  And hoping!  What a great way to kick start the season.  


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## Glenn (Nov 24, 2013)

I'm not happy with what I read in the NWS forecast discussion for SoVT.  I hope things change in the next few days.


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## hammer (Nov 24, 2013)

Hope I'm wrong but the trend is not our friend for this one.


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## steamboat1 (Nov 24, 2013)

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/looking-towards-thanksgiving-week/


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## Boston Bulldog (Nov 24, 2013)

Yep, looks like we're about to get torched. Fortunately this is November and not January or else there would be some serious problems


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## mriceyman (Nov 24, 2013)

Well after this storm watever it produces it looks like winter will set in 


Sent from my iPhone


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## bigbog (Nov 24, 2013)

Whatever temps from communities come in, temps up on the mountains should be good enough to produce snow from any of this.  At least up in Maine they've dropped, even in Bangor, to the 30s which is always good enough for the mountains....
Except Wednesday, Downtown Kingfield's highs are in the 20s...


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## Boston Bulldog (Nov 24, 2013)

Vermont and NH should get a few inches on the backside of the system once the center passes through Maine. Greens and Whites should get good upslope snow in the wake of the storm per-usual


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## Boston Bulldog (Nov 24, 2013)

Euro trending back east. Hmmmmm


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## from_the_NEK (Nov 24, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Euro trending back east. Hmmmmm



 please!


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## BenedictGomez (Nov 24, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Euro trending back east. Hmmmmm



Came nicely east, and a touch colder.

I'm not getting my hopes up unless tonight's 0z run keeps the idea brewing, but if it's consistent Jay Peak could get a good foot or so from this.  

Makes me wonder how many trails an 12 additional inches at Jay could mean for trail count on Black Friday?   They've already been pounded pretty good and it's not even Thanksgiving yet.


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## andrec10 (Nov 24, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Euro trending back east. Hmmmmm



I sure hope so! Pretty Please!!!


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## Boston Bulldog (Nov 24, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Came nicely east, and a touch colder.
> 
> I'm not getting my hopes up unless tonight's 0z run keeps the idea brewing, but if it's consistent Jay Peak could get a good foot or so from this.
> 
> Makes me wonder how many trails an 12 additional inches at Jay could mean for trail count on Black Friday?   They've already been pounded pretty good and it's not even Thanksgiving yet.



How are things looking for the Sunapee area. I'll be up there for t-day and I'm hoping for some turns. Would this wipe out their snowmaking progress?


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## Glenn (Nov 25, 2013)

Local weather guy did the radar projection for this one. It looked OK in VT until the storm started pulling in from the coast. The rain line was the entire state. Ugh.


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## WinnChill (Nov 25, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> How are things looking for the Sunapee area. I'll be up there for t-day and I'm hoping for some turns. Would this wipe out their snowmaking progress?



Looking pretty rainy with freezing levels way up past 10K ft....sorry


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## ScottySkis (Nov 25, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> Looking pretty rainy with freezing levels way up past 10K ft....sorry



Thanks Winnchill I hope to see you post this winter and good luck with new job.


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## Puck it (Nov 25, 2013)

Wed. looks like a bust for me then.


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## wa-loaf (Nov 25, 2013)

They said 55 degrees in the Boston area with 1-3 inches of rain. Not going to be good ...


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## hammer (Nov 25, 2013)

Other concern is on the timing with the holiday travel...will this mean Tuesday will be a commuting nightmare in the Boston area?

Just hope there will be payback in a good way.  Know everyone likes to get started early but I'll take a blowtorch in November if it means consistently better conditions in a week or two (or three).


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## Warp Daddy (Nov 25, 2013)

Looks like NNY is in the sweet spot , today we have a winter storm watch posted for tomorrow nite thru awed nite , possibly 6-10 inches ...we'll see


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## hammer (Nov 25, 2013)

Warp Daddy said:


> Looks like NNY is in the sweet spot , today we have a winter storm watch posted for tomorrow nite thru awed nite , possibly 6-10 inches ...we'll see


Hope you have plans to take advantage of it...


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## ScottySkis (Nov 25, 2013)

Warp Daddy said:


> Looks like NNY is in the sweet spot , today we have a winter storm watch posted for tomorrow nite thru awed nite , possibly 6-10 inches ...we'll see



Whifteface hopefully.


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## 4aprice (Nov 25, 2013)

There's more cold air on the backside of this thing.  Temp spike should be short.  Should cement anything that is down already.  But another seemingly promising snow making window opens right after.  The good thing is we need the rain.  There is an old saying that "It's got to get wet before it gets white".  Hopefully this starts something.  Gut feeling is we have a good winter maybe "bookended" (good start-milder-good end).  I'll probably push the start of the season off another week.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## ScottySkis (Nov 25, 2013)

4aprice said:


> There's more cold air on the backside of this thing.  Temp spike should be short.  Should cement anything that is down already.  But another seemingly promising snow making window opens right after.  The good thing is we need the rain.  There is an old saying that "It's got to get wet before it gets white".  Hopefully this starts something.  Gut feeling is we have a good winter maybe "bookended" (good start-milder-good end).  I'll probably push the start of the season off another week.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



+1 I hope platty snow making doesn't get washed away.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 25, 2013)

Now my local weather for were I live saying north NJ might get several inches hopefully Catskills get this snow to.


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## St. Bear (Nov 25, 2013)

It could easily snow a couple inches, but show no accumulation due to switchover to rain.  That's one of the pitfalls of model hugging.  They just show fallen liquid precip, but there are many other factors which go into accumulations.


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## Quietman (Nov 25, 2013)

I like this modeled graphics site. *[url]http://coolwx.com/ptype/*[/URL]

You can switch between GFS and NAM and options to show accumulated precip by type. It displays the most recent model run, but you can also look at previous runs if you want.  Any know of a similar site that show this type of display for the European model?

Yes, I am a weather geek!


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## ScottySkis (Nov 25, 2013)

Quietman said:


> I like this modeled graphics site. *[url]http://coolwx.com/ptype/*[/URL]
> 
> 
> 
> Yes, I am a weather geek!



Can you be A zone and not be A weather geek it makes trying to ski the east coast more fun.


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## Boston Bulldog (Nov 25, 2013)

I definitely think that the Greens could get anywhere from 1-6 inches on the backside. It all hinges on how much cold air can rotate back into the system.


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## St. Bear (Nov 26, 2013)

Storm looks so promising at the moment.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/radar_track_the_snow_sleet_and/20350696

Too bad we all know what's going to happen.


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## Quietman (Nov 26, 2013)

If we could just move the storm 100 miles to the east.  Although this now shows VT picking up some.


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## drjeff (Nov 26, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Storm looks so promising at the moment.
> http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/radar_track_the_snow_sleet_and/20350696
> 
> Too bad we all know what's going to happen.




That's what so frustrating this time of year.

The other factor that often tends to be overlooked about early season Nor'easter-esque storms, and even with some classical Coast cutting Alberta Clipper type storms that head for New England is how "warm" the Atlantic still is right now and how all of that "warm" moisture that gets picked up as the low pressure gets close enough to tap into that Atlantic moisture and what effect that has on the "cold" core of air already in the system.

It seems like the computer models just default into full winter mode and almost assume that the water of the Atlantic is in the 30's and won't have quite the effect of warming up the air columns as it often does this time of year :-(


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## St. Bear (Nov 26, 2013)

Who's driving to Le Massif?


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## twinplanx (Nov 28, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> I definitely think that the Greens could get anywhere from 1-6 inches on the backside. It all hinges on how much cold air can rotate back into the system.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



So, how much snow was on the backside of this storm? Although temps have dropped significantly this was all rain event where I live... 

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## dlague (Nov 28, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Wow, I'm surprised people aren't interested in this storm. This could be a great way to kick off the winter and could help build snowpack early.



I was very interested and even planning on ditching the relatives on thanksgiving.  However, early reports came out that this might be a rain event and I was bummed.  Lots of rain followed by a refreeze - not good!  At least some places got snow on the backside!


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## Bene288 (Nov 28, 2013)

dlague said:


> I was very interested and even planning on ditching the relatives on thanksgiving.  However, early reports came out that this might be a rain event and I was bummed.  Lots of rain followed by a refreeze - not good!  At least some places got snow on the backside!



Yeah and at least it wasn't as much rain as initially forecasted. Some places were talking an inch or two but I don't think anyone got slammed that bad. Cold temps forecasted for snow making, should be nice out there in a few days to a week.


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## hiroto (Nov 28, 2013)

Jay Peak is reporting 8-13 inches of new snow in last 24 hours and 16 inches in 48 hours.   I wonder how much of rain they got in the mix.


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## mattchuck2 (Nov 28, 2013)

Someone on my Facebook feed said Jay was knee to waist deep today...


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