# Midweek Event?



## jmn7w (Nov 27, 2010)

Any thoughts on the potential impact of what looks to be a rain event on Wed (12/1)? Assuming I went up Thursday, would K-ton or SR be the better play and is there any chance of some cold air getting sucked in to this?


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## WinnChill (Nov 28, 2010)

Hey jmn7w!  Yeah, looks pretty rainy--and some strong southerly winds help funnel it in, which will keep those snow levels up pretty high for most of New England, especially SR who is closer to the strong onshore flow.  However, this thing may move through a bit slower (an upper level blocking pattern setting up) and the colder air will arrive first for K--even if we could work in the back edge colder air while there's still some moisture around, they could pick up a decent tail-end burst.  I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing slow up and last through Thursday, so K-ton would have a little more recovery/fixup time from the rain while SR would be in the slop a little longer.  A lot to look at with this storm so I'll keep you posted as best as possible!  

Cheers,
WC


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## Angus (Nov 28, 2010)

Hi WinnChill, any ideas when we finally get into a more consistent winter pattern?


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## WinnChill (Nov 28, 2010)

Angus said:


> Hi WinnChill, any ideas when we finally get into a more consistent winter pattern?



After this midweek storm, we should settle into a more favorable, colder pattern into early December.  We'll be watching some upper level blocking downstream (over Greenland) to help out in that regard.


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## bobbutts (Nov 28, 2010)

It looks like there will likely be some strong winds with this event also, so keep an eye out for wind hold, esp on wed.


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## Glenn (Nov 29, 2010)

Looking like it's going to be warm...that's a bummer. Hopefully, it'll cool off quickly and the resorts can fire up the snowmaking again.


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## WinnChill (Nov 29, 2010)

Hey guys,

Yep, rain and strong winds Wed but we do cool off nicely after this storm.  It looks much better for a good stretch of snowmaking and even some natural snow showers for northern VT/NH/ME resorts into the weekend.


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## snoseek (Nov 29, 2010)

Angus said:


> Hi WinnChill, any ideas when we finally get into a more consistent winter pattern?



Our best bet here in New England would be nuclear winter.


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## billski (Nov 29, 2010)

After I deposited the virgins, Ullr told me to put the snow tires on this weekend.  He has planned a special "weather event" for all believers.


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## drjeff (Nov 29, 2010)

I will choose to look at the mid week event this week from the glass is half full standpoint.  The resorts that have recently made significant amounts of snow will have a chance to have their snowmaking reservoirs/ponds/rivers/streams/etd refilled a bit for another snowmaking asault later this week!


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## riverc0il (Nov 29, 2010)

drjeff said:


> I will choose to look at the mid week event this week from the glass is half full standpoint.  The resorts that have recently made significant amounts of snow will have a chance to have their snowmaking reservoirs/ponds/rivers/streams/etd refilled a bit for another snowmaking asault later this week!


You should pour your half full glass into a reservoir to help out.

:flame:


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## Glenn (Nov 30, 2010)

BLAH! Friggin' "Flood Watch" for SoVT. 2-3" tomorrow. This isn't good. :-(


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## andrec10 (Nov 30, 2010)

I guess if we do get this much rain, I will have to give Hunter some sort of Pass....


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## John W (Nov 30, 2010)

So it's tuesday @ 1pm..  The rain looks like it is about to start here on 40th st and 5th ave in about 5 mins accord with the accu-weather salelite reading.... AS I zoom out is see nothing but green throughout the NE.  Does not look like there is any weather anyplace that is not green.  Is there any chance for ANY snow with this event?  Even on the back end of this storm???


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## WinnChill (Nov 30, 2010)

John W said:


> So it's tuesday @ 1pm..  The rain looks like it is about to start here on 40th st and 5th ave in about 5 mins accord with the accu-weather salelite reading.... AS I zoom out is see nothing but green throughout the NE.  Does not look like there is any weather anyplace that is not green.  Is there any chance for ANY snow with this event?  Even on the back end of this storm???




Too far of an inland runner overpowering with rain and warm air ahead of it.  I could see a burst of some backend snow Wed night for northern 'dacks, VT/NH...a few inches give or take?  Hey, the good thing is, is that we're back to some cold air for base recovery/buildup rest of the week-weekend!


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## John W (Nov 30, 2010)

Mr Chill, thanks for the heads up.  My wishful thinking was for Rutland as I will be up there getting my first turns of the season in next weekend.  Was hoping that we could get a major snow event a week or so before i get up there.  Looks like if there is any it will be falling at the end of this storm on wet ground.  Snow making afterwards but was hoping for some of the real stuff before we got up there.  Looks like I might be SOL and have to settle for the where they can make snow on the mountain.


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## WinnChill (Nov 30, 2010)

MR Chill, eh?  Hmmm, kinda like that!   

ANYways, well it shouldn't be too bad for you though John (the 4th-5th right?).  The pattern is certainly more favorable for getting some natural stuff (watching middle part of next week closely).  Albeit most of it may very well be upslope flow from the northwest, but K-ton can make out pretty good in that setup--over the course of a few days (or several) it can add up, even though it's better for Jay/Burke/Smuggs/Stowe.  So with a little natural stuff as they go gangbusters on snowmaking, you should be in pretty good shape either way.  I'll keep you posted as best as possible to help you make some good plans, cool?

:beer:


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## John W (Nov 30, 2010)

Mr Chill might be the coolest name one here!  Yes that would be great.  We are actually headed up there on the 10th and 11th.  So there is still hope as I saw something might be coming this way next week but that's far away.  Either way your insite is helpful and appreciated...


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## WinnChill (Nov 30, 2010)

John W said:


> Mr Chill might be the coolest name one here!  Yes that would be great.  We are actually headed up there on the 10th and 11th.  So there is still hope as I saw something might be coming this way next week but that's far away.  Either way your insite is helpful and appreciated...



No problem--my pleasure.  By the way, I meant the 10th-11th too so next week's storm potential would be in your favor.  Dang, I guess looking at so many charts and maps, I end up crosseyed looking at the calendar!


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## jmn7w (Nov 30, 2010)

Thanks Mr. Chill for your insights. Gonna pass on Thursday in favor of a next Tuesday run for the volkl shop demo. 

Cheers


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## John W (Dec 1, 2010)

SO.. My fellow Alpinezone members, how bad it is looking in vermont!!!


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## KingM (Dec 1, 2010)

John W said:


> SO.. My fellow Alpinezone members, how bad it is looking in vermont!!!



No net change in the snow pack here on the Valley floor. Still zero. 

I keep waiting for this early, hard-hitting winter. It's always about a week away. Well screw it, because a week from today I'm going to be in Utah anyway.


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## Glenn (Dec 1, 2010)

I looked @ the webcams at Mount Snow. I can see a bit of snow loss. However, the temps "should" drop tonight after this system pulls out. And, if there is any good out of this, the snowmaking ponds will be nice and full. And will probably continue to full as the streams feed them for the next day or so.


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## drjeff (Dec 1, 2010)

I'm going to be real curious to hear what some of the maximum wind gusts are as the squall line rolls across VT in the next few hours!  NWS higher peaks forcast is suspecting that some summits could see gusts OVER 100mph!


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## nelsapbm (Dec 1, 2010)

The wind is absolutely nuts right now. 
Check out Northeast Kingdom Weather on Facebook if you want an idea as to what is going on at the App Gap.
http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Northeast-Kingdom-Weather/112722855410902


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## John W (Dec 1, 2010)

THAT IS A SICK VIDEO!!!!!  I really hate how warm it is...  Lets PRAY for a SICK snow fall on the tail end of this storm.  Buffalo and Cuse just got a blast.  Not sure of the cumulations if any but there is some out there.


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## nelsapbm (Dec 1, 2010)

We should see some snow by the end of the storm but I don't think its supposed to amount to much. 
I'm really surprised I have power right now! Have our fire scanner on and almost all the surround towns are out dealing with trees down on roads & power lines.


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## nelsapbm (Dec 1, 2010)

For those that don't have Facebook.
http://www.wcax.com/global/story.asp?s=13597190


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## drjeff (Dec 1, 2010)

John W said:


> THAT IS A SICK VIDEO!!!!!  I really hate how warm it is...  Lets PRAY for a SICK snow fall on the tail end of this storm.  Buffalo and Cuse just got a blast.  Not sure of the cumulations if any but there is some out there.



I was wondering at the end of that video, what was getting blown around more, the guy, or the Prius trying to drive by in the background??  :lol:


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## Huck_It_Baby (Dec 1, 2010)

So I am sitting here at work in Western NY and watching the snow fly! We are seeing the back end of the rain already and Lake effect is kicking up.

I don't think any resorts over here will open up for the weekend yet but significant LE banding is possible. 8-16 inches in some places. I might poke around Tug Hill or the Ellicottville area and hike for some turns on Saturday.


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## WinnChill (Dec 1, 2010)

drjeff said:


> I'm going to be real curious to hear what some of the maximum wind gusts are as the squall line rolls across VT in the next few hours!  NWS higher peaks forcast is suspecting that some summits could see gusts OVER 100mph!



Me too.  I've asked several resort folks for any summit reports if possible.  Most are closed so I'm hoping those with summit anemometers can get some readings.  My jaw was dropping the past several days seeing the forecasted winds aloft...jeez!  Just screamin winds!


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## drjeff (Dec 1, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Me too.  I've asked several resort folks for any summit reports if possible.  Most are closed so I'm hoping those with summit anemometers can get some readings.  My jaw was dropping the past several days seeing the forecasted winds aloft...jeez!  Just screamin winds!



I'd imagine that the folks up on top of the rock pile in the observatory will have a fun night as this thing passes Eastward!


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## WinnChill (Dec 1, 2010)

drjeff said:


> I'd imagine that the folks up on top of the rock pile in the observatory will have a fun night as this thing passes Eastward!



Can't wait to see those obs!  They're picking up now.  Wohoo!


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## nelsapbm (Dec 1, 2010)

Top 5 as of 4 hours ago
76 MMNV1 Mount Mansfield

60 D0383 Jericho

52 VTWIL VTrans Williston

51 VTBOL VTrans Bolton

47 KDDH Bennington Airport

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Water...-VT/Vermont-Emergency-Management/142566220102


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## Warp Daddy (Dec 1, 2010)

Finally the damn nair stopped and IT"S SNOWING pretty hard here along the St Lawrence -- yee haa


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## WinnChill (Dec 1, 2010)

Mount Mansfield - *103mph!!!! *(4pm) :-o


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## billski (Dec 1, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Mount Mansfield - *103mph!!!! *(4pm) :-o


  Time for the wind turbine proposal!
:dunce:


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## billski (Dec 1, 2010)

Set your sights on Kissing Bridge in Western NY.  The little pimple of a hill is set to blow away Warp-ville tonight!

Tonight                              
                                  Snow
Lo: 25° 
POP: 100%                                    Lake  effect snow with some rumbles of thunder possible. Snow May be heavy at  Times. *Overnight accumulation 10 to 16 inches *in the most persistent  snows. Lows in the mid 20s. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph...Diminishing  to 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.                              
    Thursday                              
                                  Snow
Hi: 31°
POP: 100%                                    Lake  effect snow with some rumbles of thunder possible. Snow May be heavy at  Times in the morning. *Additional accumulation 6 to 8 inches *in the most  persistent snows. Highs in the lower 30s. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of snow near 100 percent.

It is a damn shame they don't have any good vertical drops:

NYZ012-085-020845-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-101203T1100Z/
WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
734 PM EST WED DEC 1 2010
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
FRIDAY.
* LOCATIONS: SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES.
* TIMING: LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT THROUGH
  THURSDAY EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* *SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 16 TO 24 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT
  BANDS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY.*
* IMPACTS: HEAVY SNOW WILL PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. THE
  HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS
  AND PRODUCE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

KB plans to open this weekend


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## Glenn (Dec 2, 2010)

It was pretty crazy here in CT. The town I work in, 3.3" of rain. A town over, 58mph gusts. 

It's drying out now. I hope they fire up the snow guns soon up north.


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## Huck_It_Baby (Dec 2, 2010)

billski said:


> Set your sights on Kissing Bridge in Western NY.  The little pimple of a hill is set to blow away Warp-ville tonight!
> 
> Tonight
> Snow
> ...



I have been watching the LE band just sitting over KB area. I wish it would shift to the hills in the south.

KB isn't open and I'm not sure how they would feel about earning turns but I am hoping to head over that way to check things out.


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## billski (Dec 2, 2010)

Huck_It_Baby said:


> I have been watching the LE band just sitting over KB area. I wish it would shift to the hills in the south.
> 
> KB isn't open and I'm not sure how they would feel about earning turns but I am hoping to head over that way to check things out.


They are shooting to open Saturday.  They've got a real good shot at it, if you look at the pics on their facebook page.


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## Huck_It_Baby (Dec 2, 2010)

billski said:


> They are shooting to open Saturday.  They've got a real good shot at it, if you look at the pics on their facebook page.



Yep. Keeping my fingers crossed!! =)


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