# Feb 5-6 2015 weather threat



## billski (Feb 2, 2015)

Wx wonks see signs of an active system coming through Thursday and Friday.  Time for a thread.
It's almost getting unnecessary to track these things.  Good riddance January!  Go for it.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 PM EST MON FEB 2 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LARGE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AMERICAN
MODELS HAVE SIDED WITH THE GFS RESULTING IN A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP
ALONG AS WELL AS BEHIND THE FRONT IN MORE OF AN ANA-FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE EC AND UKMET HOWEVER SHOW A MIDWEST LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF NANTUCKET DEEPENING OUT INTO THE MARITIMES.
REGARDLESS BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOW PRECIP MOVING IN DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HOW IT FORMS AND THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT
AM CONCERN THAT THE EC ENSEMBLES SHOW GOOD SUPPORT IN A COASTAL
REDEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS BUT DID
NOT BUMP UP TO LIKELY DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING. HOPEFULLY
GUIDANCE COMES IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE MORE
SNOW...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ALSO ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL ADV
FOR THE COLD SURGE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT/SYSTEM.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEAK CLIPPER/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON
SATURDAY. THIS MAY SPOUT OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM COULD SEE REINFORCING COLD AIR SURGE INTO THE REGION.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.


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## catsup948 (Feb 2, 2015)

This could be a historic stretch for eastern New England.


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## billski (Feb 2, 2015)

of biblical proportions....


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## drjeff (Feb 2, 2015)

billski said:


> of biblical proportions....



I've gone from bare ground to almost 40" having fallen in the last week at my house in CT! I've got a settled snow pack of about 2 feet lining my driveway now. My 11yr old is looking at her 4th snow day tomorrow out of her last 7 days of school and hasn't had a "normal" length school day since January 23rd!! This is quite a stretch of winter weather we're having!!


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## abc (Feb 2, 2015)

And I'm not getting as much work done as I should. I have some deadlines looming that could really cramp my style later in the month whe I got plans for going away. 

(though I can work from home, I'm not quite as efficient. So I have to work longer hours to make up for it)


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## catsup948 (Feb 2, 2015)

Lunenburg, MA, 5 feet of snow in a week!


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## catsup948 (Feb 2, 2015)

I almost want to stay up for at least the 0z GFS on this one.


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## Boston Bulldog (Feb 2, 2015)

0z will be telling. If the Euro is onto something, NNE gets its turn and in SNE roofs collapse due to heavy rain and mix turning the monster pack into concrete.


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## Not Sure (Feb 2, 2015)

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=00&fhr=99&field=ptype


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## Rowsdower (Feb 2, 2015)

Choo choo.


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## billski (Feb 3, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> Choo choo.


 THIS says it all.


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## billski (Feb 3, 2015)

Boston Bulldog said:


> 0z will be telling. If the Euro is onto something, NNE gets its turn and in SNE roofs collapse due to heavy rain and mix turning the monster pack into concrete.


  What's amazing is how much weight roofs (that conform to modern building code) can actually hold.  It's only when the rains come and it turns into a giant sponge that the issues arise.   So I pray for sustained cold weather so I can ski and not be outside with a snow rake and shovel.


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## billski (Feb 3, 2015)

Take a look at this.  Ignore the precip forecasts (as he focuses mostly on Northern VT) and just look at the weather trends.  Bam. Bam. Bam.  About twice a week we are likely to get hit.  The Thursday-Friday thing looks real, and there's a good chance for another late next weekend.  He sequences the Euro model.  It's impressive to watch.


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## billski (Feb 3, 2015)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING.


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## billski (Feb 3, 2015)




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## ScottySkis (Feb 3, 2015)

How much snow for Catskills and Berkshires?


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## catsup948 (Feb 3, 2015)

Models aren't coming north on a big coastal for Thursday night.  Canadian is out to sea.  If Euro still likes the idea it's very much on its own.


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## catsup948 (Feb 3, 2015)

GFS is close.  GFS actually gives a nice 3-6 for southern Vermont Thursday.  High ratio fluff.


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## billski (Feb 3, 2015)

ncep


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## dlague (Feb 3, 2015)

Reports are saying that this clipper maybe starved of moisture and may result in something around the 3-6 inch range or less?


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 3, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Models aren't coming north on a big coastal for Thursday night.  Canadian is out to sea.  If Euro still likes the idea it's very much on its own.



Yeah, I dont see this as any big deal.  Not very powerful, a bit too far east, just not looking good really.   Need to hope for elevation overperformance.


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## yayowhitesack (Feb 3, 2015)

im down 4 at least a few more sweet storms


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## catsup948 (Feb 3, 2015)

Could be some nice refresher snows out this way tomorrow through Thursday.  2-5 inches maybe.


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## billski (Feb 4, 2015)

May not a "big deal" by the past 10 days standards, but a month ago we'd be doing the Snoopy dance over it.
Regardless, the billski-mobile will be pointing the wheels to the Northwest for Thursday.  I'm sure not to be disappointed.

(Skier's Snoopy Dance)


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 4, 2015)

billski said:


> May not a "big deal" by the past 10 days standards, but a month ago we'd be doing the Snoopy dance over it.



No, we just have different predictions/opinions over what's actually going to happen.  I don't think this is going to be anything more than a few inches, but I'll gladly be proven wrong and take your view should it turn into something good.


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## billski (Feb 4, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> No, we just have different predictions/opinions over what's actually going to happen.  I don't think this is going to be anything more than a few inches, but I'll gladly be proven wrong and take your view should it turn into something good.



I must have gotten my nouns vowels and adjectives mixed around.  I'm happy to have a delightful time in 3-5" of fresh pow!


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## skifree (Feb 4, 2015)

I'm happy to have a delightful time in 3-5" of fresh pow!  

+1  my mobile is locked and loaded. my boss can suck it! wait that's me.


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## billski (Feb 4, 2015)

The Tim has spoken.  I'm packing the ski bag right now. My  skis have not been out of the car in three weeks!


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## MarieEmily (Feb 4, 2015)

Around 4 feet here in CT and more on the way. Love that winter has finally decided to join us!


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## FreeShred (Feb 4, 2015)

Keep it coming!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 4, 2015)

FreeShred said:


> Keep it coming!



Yet another obvious cheap skiing weekend poster.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 5, 2015)

For sure.......nothing wrong with it.


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## catsup948 (Feb 5, 2015)

2 hr delay here.  It's still coming down hard.  I bet they get almost 6 up in the hills! Wish I could ski today !


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## hammer (Feb 5, 2015)

Not getting much near Lowell but what is coming down is a lot wetter/heavier.  Temps at or slightly above freezing.


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## ss20 (Feb 5, 2015)

Mount Snow reporting 6 inches.  Seems to be the big winner.


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## 4aprice (Feb 5, 2015)

billski said:


> The Tim has spoken.  I'm packing the ski bag right now. My  skis have not been out of the car in three weeks!



Keep posting him Bill.  One of the best for skiing info.  Not lucky enough to have NECN down here.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## drjeff (Feb 5, 2015)

ss20 said:


> Mount Snow reporting 6 inches.  Seems to be the big winner.



All I know is that I'm likely in for some serious shoveling efforts tomorrow evening on my back deck to "find" my grill when I get to my place up there!  I never got around to shoveling the foot plus that was on my deck already last weekend, then add in the  foot and a half or so that fell on Monday and now another 6" or so today!!  A GREAT problem to have!!


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## FreeShred (Feb 5, 2015)

We got about 4-6" here in Portland, ME last night/ this morning and still coming down a little, I'll do my best diversion snow dance to push it further North!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 5, 2015)

Overnight, Stowe is reporting 8" to 10" & Smuggs is reporting 11" to 14", that's some SERIOUS elevation over-performance


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## Smellytele (Feb 5, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Overnight, Stowe is reporting 8" to 10" & Smuggs is reporting 11" to 14", that's some SERIOUS elevation over-performance



Yes Bolton is showing 10-11 as well. Glad I am heading to that area tomorrow.


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## catsup948 (Feb 5, 2015)

Awesome for Vermont! Maine hopefully got elevation enhancement too.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 5, 2015)

Smellytele said:


> Yes Bolton is showing 10-11 as well. *Glad I am heading to that area tomorrow.*



Me too.  Just hope it isnt absurd with the windchill.


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## bigbog (Feb 5, 2015)

New England's on a roll......but that windchill in the NE is a factor BG..


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 5, 2015)

bigbog said:


> New England's on a roll......but that windchill in the NE is a factor BG..



Either tomorrow or Saturday could be ugly, but it's certainly better than it looked a few days ago.


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## bigbog (Feb 5, 2015)

Today(Thurs) was the windy day...winds are dropping, going to be "mostly cloudy" in SL area...cloudy = low winds!


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