# 2/7-2/9



## bheemsoth (Feb 5, 2013)

Is it time to start discussing this as a potentially significant event?  Looks like 3 of the 4 major models are in agreement, but I will defer to the experts for more analysis.


Sent from Samsung Galaxy S3 using Tapatalk 2


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## Puck it (Feb 5, 2013)

Stop!!!!!!!  I think we should just not talk about these anymore.  Let's just let them happen.  Just do not what to get to our hope up.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 5, 2013)

If you look at the models, I think it's going to slide too far to the east to have much of an impact, but at least everyone (other than Poconos) would get some snow.  Would be good for ME though.  Hopefully the models are wrong and this thing kicks west a bit.  It's not like the models have been handling these storms well, so who knows.  Think Snow!


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## Cornhead (Feb 5, 2013)

PLEASE BE SO!

I'm leaving for NH, and ME, early Thursday Morning, looks like the models have shifted South, but still in NE. Hope I didn't jinx myself.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 5, 2013)

A little better still with this Euro run.

  Maybe the storm is listening to me.  Yo storm?  KEEP coming WEST!  West I said!!!!!


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## reefer (Feb 5, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> A little better still with this Euro run.
> 
> Maybe the storm is listening to me. Yo storm? KEEP coming WEST! West I said!!!!!
> 
> ...


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## wintersyndrome (Feb 5, 2013)

Euro Model definitely looking better than GFS


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## Nick (Feb 5, 2013)

I'm hoping so. Summit weekend? Fresh powder? That would be insanely awesome. Fingers crossed.


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## billski (Feb 5, 2013)

Dammit. You guys have not had any ski/board pyre sacrifices to Ullr this season.  What did you expect!

BTW, I'm going to be in NVT this F/S.  I'm in good with Ullr.  6-7" in the last two days.  You have been warned.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 5, 2013)

reefer said:


> Isn't that Tuesday?



No; that snapshot in time is Saturday morning. The Euro has beantown getting clobbered with a blizzard.



billski said:


> BTW,* I'm going to be in NVT this F/S. * I'm in good with Ullr.  6-7" in the last two days.  You have been warned.



If that model verifies, you might want to consider Magic, the 9" on that map could lead to even more with elevation.  Of course, it's not like Smuggs or Jay would suck with 6" or 7".


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## WinnChill (Feb 5, 2013)

Nick said:


> I'm hoping so. Summit weekend? Fresh powder? That would be insanely awesome. Fingers crossed.



The Summit forecast "grade" could be bumped up to an A...ME and S NH would be most favored by this but this has big time whiff potential too, so I'm not doing cartwheels just yet.


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## 4aprice (Feb 5, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> The Summit forecast "grade" could be bumped up to an A...ME and S NH would be most favored by this but this has big time whiff potential too, so I'm not doing cartwheels just yet.



Caution is definately the word, but this one has the weather boys over at Americanwx yelping.  I still think the best is yet to come for this season from the Pocono's northward.


Alex 

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## WinnChill (Feb 5, 2013)

4aprice said:


> Caution is definately the word, but this one has the weather boys over at Americanwx yelping.  I still think the best is yet to come for this season from the Pocono's northward.
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



I tend to agree that Feb works better for us.  Conditions across the Pacific translate to more favorable conditions for east coast storms--sort of what we had at the beginning of the season.  With this storm in particular, I worry about the lack of downstream blocking to keep the track close as this could easily slip right out to sea.  But hey, at least it's something to get excited about, right?


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## Tin (Feb 5, 2013)

I'm burning some old skis, a few virgins, maybe a goat or two, what else does Ullr like?


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## Boston Bulldog (Feb 5, 2013)

No matter what we are still going to get 3-6 inches of snow at the minumum. Even if the storm goes out to sea on Friday night, the strong clipper moving through on Friday will deliver snow.



Wow, this would be one helluva storm if this pans out.


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## billski (Feb 5, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> so I'm not doing cartwheels just yet.


  Video or it didn't happen!


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## billski (Feb 5, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> But hey, at least it's something to get excited about, right?


  If this thing happens, I won't be on this board, I won't be on the the, I won't be web, I won't have friends... you know the drill, right?Maybe not, it's been soooo looooong!


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## billski (Feb 5, 2013)

Hazardous weather outlook national weather service taunton ma 414 pm est tue feb 5 2013

this hazardous weather outlook is for northern connecticut...central massachusetts...eastern massachusetts...northeastern massachusetts...southeastern massachusetts...western massachusetts...southern new hampshire...northern rhode island and southern rhode island.  .d

.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.  Confidence continues to increase in the potential for a very significant winter storm friday into early saturday. While light snow may have developed friday morning...the worst of the storm looks to occur friday afternoon into early saturday.  The exact details of the storm remain uncertain since the event is still 72 hours in the future. However...there is the potential for a foot or more of snow in some locations. The main uncertainty at this point is how far west the heaviest snow will reach into the distant interior. The other concern is will there be any mixing along the coastal plain that would cut down on potential snow accumulations.


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## billski (Feb 5, 2013)

Imagine, if I had to break out the mid-fats... dreaming...


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## billski (Feb 5, 2013)

So Winnchill, what's the potential for upslope in this?


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## 4aprice (Feb 5, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> No matter what we are still going to get 3-6 inches of snow at the minumum. Even if the storm goes out to sea on Friday night, the strong clipper moving through on Friday will deliver snow.
> 
> View attachment 7581
> 
> Wow, this would be one helluva storm if this pans out.



That Euro is a dream (or nightmare if you lived through 78 for Boston.)  Should be saved just to show what these models can dream up.  Think we're due for a good hit but not sure this is it.


Alex 


Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Puck it (Feb 5, 2013)

billski said:


> Imagine, if I had to break out the mid-fats... dreaming...




I need to ski my new Skilogiks in powder yet.


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## Euler (Feb 6, 2013)

Puck it said:


> I need to ski my new Skilogiks in powder yet.


You just may get to do that on Saturday!

Things stayed good overnight and NOAA out of Albany has come out with a Winter Storm Watch.  I might just get my chance to get to Magic this Sat!:grin:


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## WinnChill (Feb 6, 2013)

billski said:


> So Winnchill, what's the potential for upslope in this?



Very good potential for S NH (Black, King Pine, Waterville, Sunapee, maybe Gunstock) thru S ME resorts (Sunday River, Black)


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## Smellytele (Feb 6, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> Very good potential for S NH (Black, King Pine, Waterville, Sunapee, maybe Gunstock) thru S ME resorts (Sunday River, Black)


Really wouldn't call Black S NH


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## WinnChill (Feb 6, 2013)

Smellytele said:


> Really wouldn't call Black S NH



I know--I included them for upslope potential/slope orientation, that's all.


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## MattMc (Feb 6, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> No matter what we are still going to get 3-6 inches of snow at the minumum. Even if the storm goes out to sea on Friday night, the strong clipper moving through on Friday will deliver snow.
> 
> View attachment 7581
> 
> Wow, this would be one helluva storm if this pans out.



Now this is looking promising for this w/e!


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## wintersyndrome (Feb 6, 2013)

enjoy the graphic...its from inaccuweather for whatever that's worth.


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> Very good potential for S NH (Black, King Pine, Waterville, Sunapee, maybe Gunstock) thru S ME resorts (Sunday River, Black)


and (drumroll please)  Vermont?


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## WinnChill (Feb 6, 2013)

billski said:


> and (drumroll please)  Vermont?



I'm a drummer too, so bddddddddddd...CRASH....Vermont State Summary Page.  Upslope may not be as strong for them as they benefit mostly from the Midwest portion of this system and then maybe backedge effects from the coastal low--sort of in between but still good potential for accumulation.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 6, 2013)

wintersyndrome said:


> enjoy the graphic...its from inaccuweather for whatever that's worth.
> 
> View attachment 7584



The amazing thing to me is that if you look at the "bigs" like Accuweather, etc... they're really downplaying this compared to the Euro model runs.  I dont know if it's because they're going with the GFS (which was initially WRONG about this storm keep in mind) or if they're just being conservative, but there are Euro runs now showing around 10" in NJ where the above 1" to 3" is, and 16" to 20" in CT where their 6" to 12" range is.  In other words, just going off the Euro, which has been most correct so far, the news outlets are running the risk of way underdoing this.  Fingers crossed.


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## Euler (Feb 6, 2013)

NOAA thinks 10-14" for SoVT!  PLEASE let it happen!


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

'cmon BTV, post your stuff.  ALY is putting you to shame.  And to think ALY used to be the sleepy one!


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

Note to self: little work getting done today.
Note to all: probability of crankiness have decreased to 0 to 10% except in areas of poor driving causing significant delays, where the factor could be as high as 90%.

As the NHC likes to say:  "[You are]  urged for preparations to protect life and property to be rushed to  completion."  And don't forget your boots.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 6, 2013)

Not a forecast like the above pics, but if you just want a glimpse of what the Euro is depicting....


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

It's funny how Dr. Jeff is maintaining radio silence.  I guess he has no friends.


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

THIS
http://www.weather.us/animatedOK/watch.html

Is wicked cool!


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## hammer (Feb 6, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Not a forecast like the above pics, but if you just want a glimpse of what the Euro is depicting....



Not really complaining but that heavy band needs to shift north a bit.  Want more in the ski areas and less on my driveway...


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

Euro has been looking good on this one.  Push it a wee bit nw and I'll be tickled white!


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## Abubob (Feb 6, 2013)

After light snow all day Friday this would be 8 PM Friday night. Now the heaviest snow we've ever seen but the best this winter has offered.


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

This is just what Magic needs, with pres day week up ahead.  Good times for sure in Londonderry.


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## drjeff (Feb 6, 2013)

billski said:


> It's funny how Dr. Jeff is maintaining radio silence. I guess he has no friends.



Nope, just been too busy trying to clear my schedule for Friday


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## hammer (Feb 6, 2013)

One hope is that this will usher in a pattern shift and we won't keep getting these storms that blow up off the coast...but will have to see.


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## drjeff (Feb 6, 2013)

billski said:


> This is just what Magic needs, with pres day week up ahead. Good times for sure in Londonderry.



Fingers crossed that no more major mechanical problems with the Red happen!!!!


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## soposkier (Feb 6, 2013)

billski said:


> This is just what Magic needs, with pres day week up ahead.  Good times for sure in Londonderry
> Any nfrozen natural base left there in the woods? Or is everyhing completely bare?


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## Smellytele (Feb 6, 2013)

soposkier said:


> billski said:
> 
> 
> > This is just what Magic needs, with pres day week up ahead.  Good times for sure in Londonderry
> ...


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## St. Bear (Feb 6, 2013)

Smellytele said:


> soposkier said:
> 
> 
> > Also don't ski it all off on Saturday heading to Magic on Sunday
> ...


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## Bostonian (Feb 6, 2013)

I may have to hit magic up on Saturday!  Plans were to go to gunstock, but this may be too good to pass up!


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 6, 2013)

I'm almost ready to make the 2+ hour drive to Magic Saturday as well.
 I've never driven that far for a day trip of skiing.
I'm thinking the trip is a go if they get at least 16", since right now there is little to no natural snow on the ground and if I drive that far I want to be able to sample a lot of the terrain.


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

Smellytele said:


> soposkier said:
> 
> 
> > Also don't ski it all off on Saturday heading to Magic on Sunday
> ...


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> I'm almost ready to make the 2+ hour drive to Magic Saturday as well.
> I've never driven that far for a day trip of skiing.
> I'm thinking the trip is a go if they get at least 16", since right now there is little to no natural snow on the ground and if I drive that far I want to be able to sample a lot of the terrain.



Even with Friday "hordes" at Magic, you'll still have plenty of running room.  I remember the last 12" dump at magic.  I hadn't had that much fun in New England in years!!!


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## Smellytele (Feb 6, 2013)

billski said:


> Even with Friday "hordes" at Magic, you'll still have plenty of running room.  I remember the last 12" dump at magic.  I hadn't had that much fun in New England in years!!!



Friday is not the day. Although it will snow some Friday during the day - It will ramp up after the ski day on Friday.


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

Smellytele said:


> Friday is not the day. Although it will snow some Friday during the day - It will ramp up after the ski day on Friday.


Right!  Let's just keep telling everyone else that!
Nothing to see here.  Move along now.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 6, 2013)

Smellytele said:


> *Friday is not the day.* Although it will snow some Friday during the day - It will ramp up after the ski day on Friday.



Yeah, this is a late Friday, and Friday night storm.  Saturday is when the goods get harvested.


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## St. Bear (Feb 6, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yeah, this is a late Friday, and Friday night storm. Saturday is when the goods get harvested.



Fri afternoon might be the day, since Magic is a bit further west.  Sure, it won't get the intensification of the merging with the second storm, but it should snow most of the day.


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## Smellytele (Feb 6, 2013)

Although just an educated guess on their computer's part. They show a timing of the storm
http://www.wmur.com/weather/stormwatch/-/17328920/18429040/-/154hcwo/-/index.html


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

BD, Winchill, where are the best sources for Euro Models?  It's definitely not on the wall, or I'm really bad a reading.  (probably the latter!)


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

This animated model really gets me stoked.  Can't wait until tonight to see it project further into the week.
Anyone know where the data/model source is?

http://www.weather.us/animatedOK/watch.html


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## Smellytele (Feb 6, 2013)

billski said:


> This animated model really gets me stoked.  Can't wait until tonight to see it project further into the week.
> Anyone know where the data/model source is?
> 
> http://www.weather.us/animatedOK/watch.html



Only goes to 7am Friday right now


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## snoseek (Feb 6, 2013)

This storm looks to favor Maine/MWV no? Also I'm told they have some base in the woods so you're not starting from scratch. 

I'd be skipping Magic and going east if the models are correct but that's a very distant observation. Black mtn NH/wildcat/SR/Abram have lots of potential!


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## Glenn (Feb 6, 2013)

Waiting for the noon updates from the NWS Albany office. I love the forecast discussion when these events are on the horizon.


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## St. Bear (Feb 6, 2013)

snoseek said:


> This storm looks to favor Maine/MWV no? Also I'm told they have some base in the woods so you're not starting from scratch.
> 
> I'd be skipping Magic and going east if the models are correct but that's a very distant observation. Black mtn NH/wildcat/SR/Abram have lots of potential!



Hmm, maybe change my plans and double up on Ragged Fri and Sun?  Unfortunately, Sat is a no-go for family reasons.


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## Smellytele (Feb 6, 2013)

snoseek said:


> This storm looks to favor Maine/MWV no? Also I'm told they have some base in the woods so you're not starting from scratch.
> 
> I'd be skipping Magic and going east if the models are correct but that's a very distant observation. Black mtn NH/wildcat/SR/Abram have lots of potential!



I think that area is a little far north but it may get almost as much as S VT but not as much.


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

I'll be looking for "How awesome my tires were in the snow" reports on Monday!


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## hammer (Feb 6, 2013)

billski said:


> I'll be looking for "How awesome my tires were in the snow" reports on Monday!


I've got AWD, I don't need decent tires...:wink:


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## Abubob (Feb 6, 2013)

Every model run on GFS looks better.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 6, 2013)

Abubob said:


> Every model run on GFS looks better.



That's because the GFS showed a beautiful blue sky sunny day just 48 hours ago and is now playing catch-up to the Euro which had the blizzard for a long-time now.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 6, 2013)

Good news.   The 12z Euro hit and hasn't backed down one bit.  The storm is still right there!


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

OMG.  Work index just went to zero.  Snorkel time!

GFS
no
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=CXX
so
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BOX

NAM
no
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=CXX

so
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BOX


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## Bostonian (Feb 6, 2013)

billski said:


> OMG.  Work index just went to zero.  Snorkel time!
> 
> GFS
> no
> ...




Hmmmm how do I convince my wife to let me ski both saturday and sunday!  I think I may have to make the pilgrimage to magic!


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

Bostonian said:


> Hmmmm how do I convince my wife to let me ski both saturday and sunday!  I think I may have to make the pilgrimage to magic!



That's easy.  The oldest excuse in the book.
"The weather is really bad up here.  It's really not safe to drive.  Better spend the night."


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## C-Rex (Feb 6, 2013)

Bostonian said:


> Hmmmm how do I convince my wife to let me ski both saturday and sunday! I think I may have to make the pilgrimage to magic!



Just do it.  It's easier to ask for forgiveness than to ask for permission.  :smash:

I have plans for Killington on Friday and possibly Okemo or Pico on Saturday....  I'll be organizing snow dances and sacrifices from now until the lifts start spinning Friday morning.


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## steamboat1 (Feb 6, 2013)

hammer said:


> I've got AWD, I don't need decent tires...:wink:



Oh you'd be surprised.


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## hammer (Feb 6, 2013)

steamboat1 said:


> Oh you'd be surprised.


Should have added more ;-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-)

I'll admit that I have AWD and all-seasons, but in no way do I think I do as well as if I had winter tires as well.  With the issues I just had getting my new all-seasons balanced properly I think I can live with those for now.


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

hammer said:


> Should have added more ;-);-);-);-);-);-);-);-)



I caught on right away.  Anyhow.  Time to leave all this serious-minded stuff behind and get on to more important matters. Skis get loaded tonight.

Bill


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 6, 2013)

hammer said:


> I'll admit that I have AWD and all-seasons, but in no way do I think I do as well as if I had winter tires as well.



There was a (very) extensive thread on this a few years ago, complete with research studies.

Generally speaking (and for the love of God, please *focus* on the word "generally" people) AWD + snowtires > AWD > FWD + Snowtires > FWD > RWD + Snowtires > RWD.

Obviously there will be exceptions given certain cars snow prowess, but that's a fair generalization; the main point was, YES, snowtires do make a big difference.


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## St. Bear (Feb 6, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> There was a (very) extensive thread on this a few years ago, complete with research studies.
> 
> Generally speaking (and for the love of God, please *focus* on the word "generally" people) AWD + snowtires > AWD > RWD + Snowtires > RWD > FWD + Snowtires > FWD.
> 
> Obviously there will be exceptions given certain cars snow prowess, but that's a fair generalization; the main point was, YES, snowtires do make a big difference.



I would disagree that generally RWD > FWD in the snow.  Particularly RWD > FWD + snowtires, that's just silly.


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

For planning purposes, I feel a graphic showing storm potential is necessary..THIS WILL CHANGE  #RIWX #MAWX #CTWX


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 6, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> I would disagree that generally RWD > FWD in the snow.  Particularly RWD > FWD + snowtires, that's just silly.



Lord yes, that is a big typo to correct.  FWD is obviously_ much_ better than RWD in snow.

If my memory serves me, the longest raging battle in that 1000 page thread was whether or not RWD + Snowtires was better or worse (or maybe equal to) FWD with all seasons.  It even surpassed the AWD + all seasons versus FWD + snowtires battle. lol


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

Jim Cantore says they need more colors and lines to represent the even higher amounts on this chart!


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## timm (Feb 6, 2013)

Heaviest part extends a lot further North and West in that chart


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## St. Bear (Feb 6, 2013)

billski said:


> Jim Cantore says they need more colors and lines to represent the even higher amounts on this chart!



I don't want to jinx things, but cotdamn that's a pretty map. It's been a pathetically long time since I've skied in powder.

I also like how NJ is left out of the storm, so I won't have to worry about clearing my driveway when I get home.  Win-win!


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## jrmagic (Feb 6, 2013)

drjeff said:


> Fingers crossed that no more major mechanical problems with the Red happen!!!!





From your fingers to God's ear!!


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

*A blizzard Watch has been issued for Massachusetts.*

A blizzard Watch has been issued for Massachusetts.

Issued by The National Weather Service
Boston, MA 
        3:19 pm EST, Wed., Feb. 6, 2013

   ... BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...  ... WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...  

  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...  WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE  WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 
 *  LOCATIONS... MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND  CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. 

 * HAZARD TYPES... HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. 

 * ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 24 INCHES. 

  * TIMING... LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL INCREASE  INTENSITY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY  NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 

 * IMPACTS...  HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD  CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY  MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY  BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. 

 * WINDS... NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. 

 * VISIBILITIES... ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. 

 * TEMPERATURES... IN THE MID 20S. 

 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE FALLING  AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH  AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS. WHITE OUT  CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAKING TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS.  BE  PREPARED TO ALTER ANY TRAVEL PLANS. 
 && 
*More Information*

   ... A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND  BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE  REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...


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## jrmagic (Feb 6, 2013)

soposkier said:


> billski said:
> 
> 
> > This is just what Magic needs, with pres day week up ahead.  Good times for sure in Londonderry
> ...


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## gmcunni (Feb 6, 2013)

jrmagic said:


> From your fingers to God's ear!!


is black running now?


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

Oh God I had been planning on stocking up groceries for my trip tomorrow.  I guess everything will be gone by tonight.  Worse store lines will be impossible.  Shoplifting may be an option.  

Actually, I should just flee the flatlands as quickly as possible and do my shopping up north.  Better prices, no crowds, support the local economy.  Besides, this is just another "normall" snowstorm for them.  Good Idea Bill.  Thanks.  I'm glad you thought of it.


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## timm (Feb 6, 2013)

I was just thinking thank god my wife did the grocery shopping yesterday.


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

That's it.  life is over in the flatlands They're all calling it a blizzard.   I probably won't be able to get gas either.  I hope the liquor stores have something left for me.


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## jrmagic (Feb 6, 2013)

gmcunni said:


> is black running now?



Not yet. The inspector added another task. Its supposed to be up for Presidents week.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 6, 2013)

timm said:


> Heaviest part extends a lot further North and West in that chart



Yeah, that's definitely wrong, though the dark bit is only 12", but still aggressively large compared to other models.  It's also weird that it only has 1" for n.NJ etc.  I think most people really only look to the NAM inside 48 or 72 hours at most.


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

nws just cranked up eastern mass from 14-18 to 18-24.  Are you ready for the white room?

View attachment 7598


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## Nick (Feb 6, 2013)

How is Sugarloaf sitting on all this for the summit? I know it's further north in the snow bands. I'm seeing everything from 3" to 2'+ on various models.


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## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

tim just weighed in.  Calling it a "Hype-a-caine"
http://www.skitheeast.net/posts/id/704908262/hype-icane-snowcast-from-tk


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## Tooth (Feb 6, 2013)

Nick said:


> How is Sugarloaf sitting on all this for the summit? I know it's further north in the snow bands. I'm seeing everything from 3" to 2'+ on various models.



I am hoping for 14" at least for us.


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## riverc0il (Feb 6, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> I'm almost ready to make the 2+ hour drive to Magic Saturday as well.
> I've never driven that far for a day trip of skiing.
> I'm thinking the trip is a go if they get at least 16", since right now there is little to no natural snow on the ground and if I drive that far I want to be able to sample a lot of the terrain.


Everyone is going to zig. I think I am going to zag. Magic should be pretty damned packed with only the double running. Seems like the obvious choice which makes me consider other options. But good on Magic for packing em' in a powder frenzy day, they definitely need that type of business.


----------



## ScottySkis (Feb 6, 2013)

billski said:


> Oh God I had been planning on stocking up groceries for my trip tomorrow.  I guess everything will be gone by tonight.  Worse store lines will be impossible.  Shoplifting may be an option.
> 
> Actually, I should just flee the flatlands as quickly as possible and do my shopping up north.  Better prices, no crowds, support the local economy.  Besides, this is just another "normall" snowstorm for them.  Good Idea Bill.  Thanks.  I'm glad you thought of it.



Actually two of coworkers cancelled their plans on Friday night because of this storm, in NYC were subway train does not have problems running in snow.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 6, 2013)

Are we completely mapped out yet or can I post another?

I tend to find this guy to be pretty good, at the very least he's not a hypester.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 6, 2013)

Because I need MOAR MAP GUESSES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Huck_It_Baby (Feb 6, 2013)

riverc0il said:


> Everyone is going to zig. I think I am going to zag.




Curious to know where does your zagging take you?


----------



## jrmagic (Feb 6, 2013)

Huck_It_Baby said:


> Curious to know where does your zagging take you?



If he answers you that could turn it into zigging lol


----------



## Puck it (Feb 6, 2013)

Huck_It_Baby said:


> Curious to know where does your zagging take you?


Sunapee, of course.


----------



## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

Huck_It_Baby said:


> Curious to know where does your zagging take you?



Zags are _never _discussed on an open, public forum.  Catch my (snow) drift?


----------



## St. Bear (Feb 6, 2013)

Huck_It_Baby said:


> Curious to know where does your zagging take you?





jrmagic said:


> If he answers you that could turn it into zigging lol





billski said:


> Zags are _never _discussed on an open, public forum.  Catch my (snow) drift?


I bet he's going to end up zogging.

If you have to ask what zogging is, well, that's the point.


----------



## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> I bet he's going to end up zogging.
> 
> If you have to ask what zogging is, well, that's the point.


well, contra-zogging may be the best way to deflect a zagger.
Be careful not to Zap a Zogger who is Zigging a Zagger.  It is a sure fire way of creating a Zing-Zang.


----------



## riverc0il (Feb 6, 2013)

Puck it said:


> Sunapee, of course.


:lol:

I'll make that decision on Friday. Need to determine if there will be enough snow for plan B. Not satisfied with accumulation maps at this point. 

Think 1000' or so vert and no one else there.


----------



## deadheadskier (Feb 6, 2013)

Sounds like Mt. Abram to me.  Would be a great day for the Abe!!


----------



## deadheadskier (Feb 6, 2013)

Though if I had to guess, I bet Black, NH has even fewer people there.........


----------



## St. Bear (Feb 6, 2013)

riverc0il said:


> :lol:
> 
> I'll make that decision on Friday. Need to determine if there will be enough snow for plan B. Not satisfied with accumulation maps at this point.
> 
> Think 1000' or so vert and no one else there.



Tenney Mt.

Smart man.


----------



## St. Bear (Feb 6, 2013)

deadheadskier said:


> Though if I had to guess, I bet Black, NH has even fewer people there.........


Isn't Black like 1,200 vert?


----------



## Tooth (Feb 6, 2013)

Someday you have to hit the Camden Snow Bowl. 

http://vimeo.com/58777177


----------



## mlctvt (Feb 6, 2013)

Has anyone seen wind forecasts for this storm for ski areas of Southern VT. Here on the coast in CT  they're now predicting 25-35mph winds with gusts of 55-60mph and perhaps a few hurricane force gusts. The earlier forecasts had nothing about wind. If we get wet snow or mixing with those winds that would be devistating here in Coastal CT. 
I'm heading to VT tomorrow night and I'm worried about wind holds Friday and Saturday. NOAA Albany says a few 20-40 MPH gusts but I'm worried it could be more severe?


----------



## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Isn't Black like 1,200 vert?


Any place will be great on Saturday.  Just go.


----------



## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

mlctvt said:


> Has anyone seen wind forecasts for this storm for ski areas of Southern VT. Here on the coast in CT  they're now predicting 25-35mph winds with gusts of 55-60mph and perhaps a few hurricane force gusts. The earlier forecasts had nothing about wind. If we get wet snow or mixing with those winds that would be devistating here in Coastal CT.
> I'm heading to VT tomorrow night and I'm worried about wind holds Friday and Saturday. NOAA Albany says a few 20-40 MPH gusts but I'm worried it could be more severe?


  Go somewhere with a fixed grip, if you're worried about holds.  A resort that begins with a M and ends in a C is always Mr. Reliable.


----------



## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

mlctvt said:


> Has anyone seen wind forecasts for this storm for ski areas of Southern VT. Here on the coast in CT  they're now predicting 25-35mph winds with gusts of 55-60mph and perhaps a few hurricane force gusts. The earlier forecasts had nothing about wind. If we get wet snow or mixing with those winds that would be devistating here in Coastal CT.
> I'm heading to VT tomorrow night and I'm worried about wind holds Friday and Saturday. NOAA Albany says a few 20-40 MPH gusts but I'm worried it could be more severe?


----------



## St. Bear (Feb 6, 2013)

billski said:


> Any place will be great on Saturday.  Just go.


I was pointing to the fact that Riv said he's be at a place with 1,000 vert, and if Black is 1,200, then that's not it.


----------



## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

Cantore says NYC could _easily _get 10"


----------



## soulseller (Feb 6, 2013)

deadheadskier said:


> Though if I had to guess, I bet Black, NH has even fewer people there.........



This was going to be my guess and it would also be my #1 destination but I'm not driving that far Saturday morning.



St. Bear said:


> Tenney Mt.
> 
> Smart man.



Tenny however is just up the road a clip, are they actually open this year? I saw someone on here say they are but I can't find anything to corroborate that statement.


----------



## St. Bear (Feb 6, 2013)

soulseller said:


> Tenny however is just up the road a clip, are they actually open this year? I saw someone on here say they are but I can't find anything to corroborate that statement.


That ain't but a thing to Mr. Riv.


----------



## soulseller (Feb 6, 2013)

billski said:


> A resort that begins with a M and ends in a C



A resort!?! They must have sold a few more shares than I expected. :-D


----------



## abc (Feb 6, 2013)

Pico! Everybody else will be at Killington.

If I can get away from work on Friday, I'd hit go up Thursday and hit Pico on Saturday!!!

But it doesn't look like Friday itself will be the day. So I can't justify taking the day off. I'm tempting to work from the hotel on Friday so I'll be in position come Saturday.


----------



## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

O M G - LOOK WHAT CANTORE FOUND:







Jim Cantore                  1934 views
                  9 minutes ago 

                                        00z NAM still going crazy with 40"-60" of snow within red area including #Boston and #Providence. Eerily interesting:


----------



## Euler (Feb 6, 2013)

billski said:


> Go somewhere with a fixed grip, if you're worried about holds.  A resort that begins with a M and ends in a C is always Mr. Reliable.


Are you kidding?  I'm planning on going to Magic on Sat, but reliable is not the word I'd use to describe the lift situation there this year.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 6, 2013)

abc said:


> But* it doesn't look like Friday itself will be the day.* So I can't justify taking the day off. I'm tempting to work from the hotel on Friday so I'll be in position come Saturday.



It wont.  I dont get why some people keep saying that.  The heavier snows wont even come until after lifts close.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 6, 2013)

00z GFS will be coming out really soon, that should be interesting to see.  

But the main feature to wait for tonight is a few hours later when the Euro comes out.   

 Fingers crossed and breath baited.


----------



## timm (Feb 6, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> It wont.  I dont get why some people keep saying that.  The heavier snows wont even come until after lifts close.



I think the issue for a lot of people is not the skiing on Friday but the travel on Friday or Saturday morning. I know for me that's why I'm looking at getting to the mountain for Friday am.


----------



## billski (Feb 6, 2013)

Cantore does the best wrap-up I've seen anywhere.
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-nemo-20130206

As far as Magic goes, it's been one issue, could have happened to anyone.  The Black work is almost done.  It's not like you're in the boondocks with no place nearby to go to.  Been there twice this year, first a month ago and again last weekend.  Also was at Stowe two weeks ago when the new high speed quad was out of service for two days.


----------



## abc (Feb 6, 2013)

timm said:


> I think the issue for a lot of people is not the skiing on Friday but the travel on Friday or Saturday morning. I know for me that's why I'm looking at getting to the mountain for Friday am.


Quite right.

Any word on how wet/dry the snow will be? 10"+ of wet cement is actually not the easiest/enjoyable for some of us...


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 6, 2013)

The 00z GFS just came out and is crushing virtually everyone's hopes and dreams.  

*BOO that model.*

I wont despair unless the 00z Euro shows the same thing tonight.  Fingers crossed.


----------



## abc (Feb 6, 2013)

timm said:


> I think the issue for a lot of people is not the skiing on Friday but the travel on Friday or Saturday morning. I know for me that's why I'm looking at getting to the mountain for Friday am.


Quite right. Not for skiing, just get the traveling out of the way. 

Any word on how wet/dry the snow will be? 10"+ of wet cement is actually not the easiest/enjoyable for some of us...


----------



## WinnChill (Feb 7, 2013)

abc said:


> Quite right. Not for skiing, just get the traveling out of the way.
> 
> Any word on how wet/dry the snow will be? 10"+ of wet cement is actually not the easiest/enjoyable for some of us...



Should be decent fluff--heavier stuff stays south


----------



## ScottySkis (Feb 7, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> Should be decent fluff--heavier stuff stays south



Mr. Winn how do you think Gore will do. I am thinking of drinking my non snow tires 2 wheel drive car up Saturday from Orange County NY stay overnight in car and ski Sunday, I take off from part time job on Saturday for this epic storm. How you think driving in blizzards on Saturday or coming to end?


----------



## Smellytele (Feb 7, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> It wont.  I dont get why some people keep saying that.  The heavier snows wont even come until after lifts close.



I am actually going night skiing on Friday which should be... okay?:beer:


----------



## WinnChill (Feb 7, 2013)

Scotty said:


> Mr. Winn how do you think Gore will do. I am thinking of drinking my non snow tires 2 wheel drive car up Saturday from Orange County NY stay overnight in car and ski Sunday, I take off from part time job on Saturday for this epic storm. How you think driving in blizzards on Saturday or coming to end?



Storm should be ending early Saturday AM--just depends on how the plow crews keep up with everything.  Gore should do pretty good


----------



## billski (Feb 7, 2013)

Latest  NAM Run













GFS


----------



## Bostonian (Feb 7, 2013)

All I have to say is wow wow wow!


----------



## 180 (Feb 7, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> Should be decent fluff--heavier stuff stays south



Winn,  Just checking the site.  I see that you have Gore getting 17-21 and Pico getting 4-8.  Any reason why such a difference?


----------



## Cannonball (Feb 7, 2013)

Love seeing these accumulation projections!!!  But let's talk wind for a sec.  That could be the dream killer for a lot of us who are pre-positioning for Sat.  Whose going to be on hold?  Where are the safe spots?  I am definitely worried about holds at Cannon.  Even if lower mtn lifts stay open with summits closed that is going to pack a LOT of hungry people into a small area.  Wildcat is likely to shut down the summit which is a horribly frustrating situation I've experienced way too many times.  Loon?  Am I actually considering Loon over Cannon on a pow day?  A lot more lift options with less wind exposure.  Bretton Woods is usually wind immune.  But less snow further north and BW doesn't have enough pitch to make a decent pow day worthwhile.  Gah!


----------



## timm (Feb 7, 2013)

After seeing the wind reports, decided to take Cannon & Wildcat off the list. Loon is on my maybe, Attitash another one to consider as an alternative.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2013)

The Euro actually went even further west and dramatically increased its' snow total for NJ and NYC, but it also depicts less snow for all of ski country now.   As much as I love snow, I'd gladly sacrifice it to the mountains.


----------



## billski (Feb 7, 2013)

There is clearly some variability in these forecasts.  There is a very balanced narrative on 
http://www.boston.com/news/weather/weather_wisdom/2013/02/blizzard_watch_coastal_flood_w.html

"
...
There is still conflicting information on the exact track of the  storm.  A wobble closer or further to the coast would ultimately change  accumulations by big numbers, but it's still going to be a big storm.
...

he reason the estimated accumulations have such a large range,are that  in these very intense storms thundersnow  or banding can rapidly add  8-12 inches of snow to an area in just a few hours.  Today,  some of the computer models will start to indicate if the storm will  produce thundersnow or heavy banding (which has extreme snowfall rates)  and that will allow me to be even more specific with the final amounts.
...
For the storm Friday night to become historic a lot has to happen.   Every key ingredient in the atmosphere must come together in just the  right way.  Snowfall rates will need to approach 3 inches per hour at  least for a few hours.  If, for example, it snows at 1 inch per hour  from midnight until 5 AM that is going to give us 5 inches of snow, but  imagine getting 3 inches per hour during that time, now you just added  15 inches to your total.  For Boston and other towns to see final  amounts over 18 inches we need to have some incredibly intense snowfall  rates for at least part of the storm
...
This is the hard part of forecasting and conveying what the storm will  be like before it occurs. Everyone has a different opinion on what makes  a bad storm"

This won't stop me from being obsessively optimistic.


----------



## Puck it (Feb 7, 2013)

Cannonball said:


> Love seeing these accumulation projections!!!  But let's talk wind for a sec.  That could be the dream killer for a lot of us who are pre-positioning for Sat.  Whose going to be on hold?  Where are the safe spots?  I am definitely worried about holds at Cannon.  Even if lower mtn lifts stay open with summits closed that is going to pack a LOT of hungry people into a small area.  Wildcat is likely to shut down the summit which is a horribly frustrating situation I've experienced way too many times.  Loon?  Am I actually considering Loon over Cannon on a pow day?  A lot more lift options with less wind exposure.  Bretton Woods is usually wind immune.  But less snow further north and BW doesn't have enough pitch to make a decent pow day worthwhile.  Gah!




Loon! Loon!  You can not be serious!  Winn's site says out of the N NW at Cannon.  That direction should be ok for HSQ and summit.


----------



## Cannonball (Feb 7, 2013)

Puck it said:


> Loon! Loon!  You can not be serious!  Winn's site says out of the N NW at Cannon.  That direction should be ok for HSQ and summit.



Yeah NNW...at 50-55MPH!!!  Direction counts for a lot but at those speeds all bets are off.


----------



## timm (Feb 7, 2013)

Is Winn's site down for anyone else?


----------



## Nick (Feb 7, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> The Euro actually went even further west and dramatically increased its' snow total for NJ and NYC, but it also depicts less snow for all of ski country now.   As much as I love snow, I'd gladly sacrifice it to the mountains.



Damn, my in-laws house is literally right in the center of that 30" dot


----------



## hammer (Feb 7, 2013)

billski said:


> There is clearly some variability in these forecasts.  There is a very balanced narrative on
> http://www.boston.com/news/weather/weather_wisdom/2013/02/blizzard_watch_coastal_flood_w.html
> 
> "
> ...


David Epstein's blogs have been my go-to for weather info for a while...don't see as much hype.


----------



## Puck it (Feb 7, 2013)

Cannonball said:


> Yeah NNW...at 50-55MPH!!!  Direction counts for a lot but at those speeds all bets are off.




I hear you but I have been there with gusts like that and out of the north and all lifts were running.  I saw a woman get blown across uppter tram deck a couple of years ago.  I will be watching updates as I drive Sat. Morning for holds.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2013)

The thing with this storm, is that it's going to be near impossible for any model to be right.  

*LOOK at how sharp these snow cutoffs are!  *

You can go from 12" to 4" in a short drives time.  You can go from 30" to 18" in a short drives time, or 6" to NOTHING.  I've arrived at the position that we just have to wait and see. 

 This storm is GOOD for ALL of ski country (Poconos, Cats, DAX, Green, White, ME), whether the mountains get 7" or 17" is my position.  Everyone joins this party.  How often can we ever say that!  Dont worry, be happy.


----------



## WJenness (Feb 7, 2013)

Holy NAM, Batman!





-w


----------



## j law (Feb 7, 2013)

Hmmm... Southern VT looks the best from this latest map.


----------



## mlctvt (Feb 7, 2013)

WJenness said:


> Holy NAM, Batman!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I love that 30" dot right over Mount Snow and Magic.


----------



## billski (Feb 7, 2013)

j law said:


> Hmmm... Southern VT looks the best from this latest map.


Don't be greedy now.  After the last 15 months, I'll take anything that is greater than 3 inches!


----------



## dmw (Feb 7, 2013)

hammer said:


> David Epstein's blogs have been my go-to for weather info for a while...don't see as much hype.



He blogged last weekend that any major snow for the Boston area was increasingly unlikely... Glad he was wrong though!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2013)

WJenness said:


> Holy NAM, Batman!



Keep in mind that model had virtually no snow for NJ/NYC yesterday = FAIL.

The 12z GFS came out a little while ago with majorly increased snow for NJ/NYC versus its' run yesterday too.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2013)

Here's the 12z GFS that came out a little bit ago.  It has lower snow totals for most everyone, because it's predicting the storm moves a bit east. 

 Whatever, I'm still going with the Euro since its had this storm for days now.


----------



## Cannonball (Feb 7, 2013)

Puck it said:


> I hear you but I have been there with gusts like that and out of the north and all lifts were running.  I saw a woman get blown across uppter tram deck a couple of years ago.  I will be watching updates as I drive Sat. Morning for holds.



Pack your skins.


----------



## ScottySkis (Feb 7, 2013)

My bus to NYc might be cancelled because of snow. I be on the train tomorrow. I love to ski a powder day at Elk on Saturday and go to Platty on Sunday, or should I go to Gore I dont know.


----------



## billski (Feb 7, 2013)

Scotty said:


> My bus to NYc might be cancelled because of snow. I be on the train tomorrow. I love to ski a powder day at Elk on Saturday and go to Platty on Sunday, or should I go to Gore I dont know.



I understand that Kmart has a bus that picks people up at a nearby (25 miles?) amtrak station.   In today's paper, Okemo is planning to do something similar.  Not that we have many storms of this magnitude.


----------



## Smellytele (Feb 7, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Here's the 12z GFS that came out a little bit ago.  It has lower snow totals for most everyone, because it's predicting the storm moves a bit east.
> 
> Whatever, I'm still going with the Euro since its had this storm for days now.



Shows VT for the most part only getting 3-6 not that epic as we have been treating it as the snowmagaddon. I also hope for the Euro


----------



## Glenn (Feb 7, 2013)

NWS Albany Office still has it looking good for SoVT....14-18"


----------



## ScottySkis (Feb 7, 2013)

billski said:


> I understand that Kmart has a bus that picks people up at a nearby (25 miles?) amtrak station.   In today's paper, Okemo is planning to do something similar.  Not that we have many storms of this magnitude.



Thank you Bill I will look into that for sure.


----------



## billski (Feb 7, 2013)

I saw an interesting video from Matt Noyes last night where he rationalized his forecast.  In a nut shell, he's taking all the models and forecasting to the median.
_For more, I invite you to follow me on Twitter, my weather Facebook page, my non-weather Facebook Page, and, of course, check in at my Weather Analysis Page and NECN Weather Team Blog for new posts._
 As we draw closer to the storm, I've added the additional  accumulation detail you're used to seeing from me on NECN, and aired  these new maps on New England's Only News at 9 PM, then again at 10 and  midnight - single number estimates, and additional contour where amounts  should approach two feet, and some changes on the north side of the  precipitation shield.
 Below is the full explanation in a video forecast, including the accumulation maps - below that are the accumulation map images:




http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/


----------



## WinnChill (Feb 7, 2013)

180 said:


> Winn,  Just checking the site.  I see that you have Gore getting 17-21 and Pico getting 4-8.  Any reason why such a difference?



Pico should be 10-15"...the edit didn't carry over...thanks for the heads up on that!


----------



## WinnChill (Feb 7, 2013)

Should be fixed now...same for Killington--the edits didn't carry over.  Sorry bout that.


----------



## 180 (Feb 7, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> Pico should be 10-15"...the edit didn't carry over...thanks for the heads up on that!



It was low on all the Vermont


----------



## WinnChill (Feb 7, 2013)

180 said:


> It was low on all the Vermont



What the....really?  This new editor sucks.  VT should've shown 10-15 minimum for all VT from yesterday's update.


----------



## timm (Feb 7, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> What the....really?  This new editor sucks.  VT should've shown 10-15 minimum for all VT from yesterday's update.



Site is down for me totally, anyone else having problems?


----------



## WinnChill (Feb 7, 2013)

timm said:


> Site is down for me totally, anyone else having problems?



Should be up Timm--just refresh a few times hopefully?


----------



## 180 (Feb 7, 2013)

timm said:


> Site is down for me totally, anyone else having problems?



not down


----------



## 180 (Feb 7, 2013)

180 said:


> not down



and it updated now.


----------



## jaywbigred (Feb 7, 2013)

WJenness said:


> Holy NAM, Batman!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



OMG. I've heard of "40 inches plus" before but not when it comes to snow! DO. WANT.


----------



## timm (Feb 7, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> Should be up Timm--just refresh a few times hopefully?



Must be something weird with my work network as it is still down for me on my desktop, but I can access on my cell phone.


----------



## billski (Feb 7, 2013)

Intellicast


----------



## Nick (Feb 7, 2013)

^Intellicast is what we have at alpinezone.com/weather

Interesting as that shows Vermont getting nailed


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2013)

billski said:


> Intellicast



Cracckuweather has the bullseye about 100 miles west of where the models have it.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2013)

I'm hearing the 12z ECMWF is out!
_
 ((((((on pins and needles waiting in anticipation like a 12 year old girl at a Justin Bieber signing))))

_<em>


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2013)

Okay.... no graphic yet, but apparently the Euro continued to take this storm west and south (about 25 miles).

I imagine this would be:
Slightly Less snow for New England ski resorts.
Possibly much more snow for NYC, NJ.
Definitely more snow for Poconos
More snow for Catskills
Possibly more for DAX?  Or not.... depends on how west vs. south the shift was I imagine.


----------



## wa-loaf (Feb 7, 2013)

No, move north!


----------



## billski (Feb 7, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Cracckuweather has the bullseye about 100 miles west of where the models have it.


If  you are going to be wrong, then be very, very wrong!


----------



## billski (Feb 7, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> No, move north!



A week ago it was raining.  WHAT are you whining about!  
I share your sentiment.  Just pick a model you like and get some vodka.  You'll be just fine!


----------



## Nick (Feb 7, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'm hearing the 12z ECMWF is out!
> _
> ((((((on pins and needles waiting in anticipation like a 12 year old girl at a Justin Bieber signing))))
> 
> _<em>




This is exactly what the forum is like right now, :lol:


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2013)

billski said:


> *If  you are going to be wrong, then be very, very wrong!*



What's funny is that HM, one of Accuweather's lead personalities, is downplaying the snow totals BIGTIME and is in total disagreement with Accuweather's own map.

So either Accuweather or one of Accuweather's top people, are going to be "very, very, wrong". lol


----------



## St. Bear (Feb 7, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> What's funny is that HM, one of Accuweather's lead personalities, is downplaying the snow totals BIGTIME and is in total disagreement with Accuweather's own map.
> 
> So either Accuweather or one of Accuweather's top people, are going to be "very, very, wrong". lol
> 
> View attachment 7606




Or the way they're looking at it is that either Accuweather or one of Accuweather's top personalities is going to be very very right.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2013)

The new RPM was just released (because clearly we can NEVER have enough model guesses)

And this one isnt just snow porn, it's REALLY, really DIRTY snow porn.













Given no other model deposits 20" or 24" into west Jersey or 30"+ in the Catskills, I'm not buying it.  But it sure is orgasmic to look at.


----------



## ScottySkis (Feb 7, 2013)

I hope we get another freaky snow storm of 100 inches in 5 days like a few years ago.


----------



## drjeff (Feb 7, 2013)

As I was looking at this thread, my phone literally just buzzed letting me know that the national weather service just issued a blizzard WARNING for my part of Northeast CT!  BRING IT ON!!


----------



## D-2.5-GT (Feb 7, 2013)

Half the office had the same warning buzz go off....pretty hilarious. 
It was the emergency broadcast tone on steroids!


----------



## ScottySkis (Feb 7, 2013)

NOAA went off for NYC.


----------



## 4aprice (Feb 7, 2013)

Nick Gregory of Fox 5 just showed 12-16 for the Pocono's.  Conditions are good now (read excellent snowmaking) its going to be outstanding if that happens.  Go mother nature.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## riverc0il (Feb 7, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Tenney Mt.
> 
> Smart man.


Ha. That is for Monday morning dawn patrol. Riding the lifts this weekend. Tenney is 1400 BTW


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2013)

Joe Bastardi's map - he's really downplaying this storm to the north and west; hope he's wrong.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2013)

HOLY CRAP!!!!!!!!!

Has anyone seen the 00z NAM?!?!?!!?

This thing KEEPS coming west.  At this point, I may not even be ABLE to go skiing if that model verifies.  NYC under 2 or 3 feet of snow, northern Jersey buried.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2013)

Honestly, at this point I PRAY the NAM is wrong, not just because I'd rather the snow be in ski country, but because I'd like to be ABLE to go skiing. 

 Though, if this model verifies, everyone should go to the Catskills or the Poconos.  Yeah, that phrase is uttered about once per century.


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## Nick (Feb 7, 2013)

Most recent intelecast now shows 24 inches at the loaf


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## Tooth (Feb 7, 2013)

Nick said:


> Most recent intelecast now shows 24 inches at the loaf



I betting 18+. If that happens you will have hit the jackpot for what the loaf really is. Here's to hope.


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## legalskier (Feb 7, 2013)




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## WWF-VT (Feb 8, 2013)

Currently 13 degrees and light snow at the base of Mt
 Ellen


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## SKIQUATTRO (Feb 8, 2013)

Just arrived at the condo.... Waiting and ready


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## Nick (Feb 8, 2013)

Just arrived also .... good night !


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 8, 2013)

Here's the Euro that ran while we were sleeping.  Right or wrong, this model has been amazingly consistent for about 6 days now, and the first to "see" this blizzard.  This run decreases the snow amounts pretty much everywhere by a touch (no 30" amounts in Boston anymore, etc...).


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## Huck_It_Baby (Feb 8, 2013)

Woke up to 2-3 inches already in Colchester, Vt. Coming down nice and steady!


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## Boston Bulldog (Feb 8, 2013)

Snowing at Bowdoin as I prepare to make the trek to SR


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## WWF-VT (Feb 8, 2013)

10 degrees, about 3 inches of snow and snowing hard now at 7:30 AM at the base of Mt Ellen.   Snow phone not making any predictions on potential storm totals


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## jaywbigred (Feb 8, 2013)

An inch on the ground and lightly snowing at the base of Carinthia at Mt. Snow.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 8, 2013)

It's snowing pretty hard in western NJ already.  

 This is WAY earlier than it was supposed to start snowing.  I'm taking that as a positive sign!!   Most were saying "mix" here until late this afternoon, some were saying "mix" until 7pm.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 8, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> It's snowing pretty hard in western NJ already.
> 
> This is WAY earlier than it was supposed to start snowing.  I'm taking that as a positive sign!!   Most were saying "mix" here until late this afternoon, some were saying "mix" until 7pm.


Smart for me to not go to work today, hopefully unemployment check for when their stupid as# fires me.


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## bheemsoth (Feb 8, 2013)

Close to an inch on the ground here in central CT. Hopefully getting on the road around noon. I assume CT and MA will at least keep 91 in good shape.


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## MommaBear (Feb 8, 2013)

jaywbigred said:


> An inch on the ground and lightly snowing at the base of Carinthia at Mt. Snow.



Interesting...3 miles south of the mountain we've got a very fine mist and just a dusting on the ground so far.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 8, 2013)

Whiteface just reported in 10" new.... already!


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## jrmagic (Feb 8, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Whiteface just reported in 10" new.... already!



Wow thats awesome.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 8, 2013)

jrmagic said:


> Wow thats awesome.



Absolutely.

But I'm also hearing wonky chatter that the merging of the two storms isnt going as perfectly as expected, that the northern branch is slower than thought, which means snow totals will have to come down a bit for pretty much everywhere except southern New England.  

For instance, where I live, NWS had 10-14 last night, and they've now pulled it down to 6-8.   They essentially cut the snow in half!  We'll see.  It's not like they havent been wrong before......... a LOT.   Lol.


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## jrmagic (Feb 8, 2013)

All we can do is wait and see. I certainly hope that the wonky chatter is off the mark.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 8, 2013)

jrmagic said:


> *All we can do is wait and see.* I certainly hope that the wonky chatter is off the mark.



Agreed.  But there's a lot of conflicting options and analysis right now.  Like, now you have the NWS just putting this out.



> THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW MAY BE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE WEST AND NORTH THAN CURRENT FORECAST



So, at least that bit would be incrementally good news for ski country.  Any northward or westward shifts would be awesome.


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## Cannonball (Feb 8, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> They essentially cut the snow in half!



Yeah, but that is the norm and to be expected.  Whenever I see an accumulation forecast for 2-3 days out I automatically cut the projection in half.  That tends to end up matching reality in most cases.


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## 4aprice (Feb 8, 2013)

Snowing at a good clip here in NNJ and has been since about 7:30 this morning (about an inch so far 700' above sea level).  Leaving for the Pocono's in about an hour.  Supposed to get 10+ UP there.  Skiing was good up there yesterday so it should only be getting better.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 8, 2013)

4+ so far here in the St Lynburyopolis. That already matches the low end of predictions for this region.


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## jrmagic (Feb 8, 2013)

Regardless of final totals, at least it didn't go way out to sea making it a bust. Its all good from here but of course hoping for high end amounts throughout ski country.  Its been snowing here in central westchester since I woke up with about an inch and a half on the ground.


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## Abubob (Feb 8, 2013)

What's this I hear about Mass roads closing to traffic after 4 pm Friday?


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 8, 2013)

Cannonball said:


> Yeah, but that is the norm and to be expected.*  Whenever I see an accumulation forecast for 2-3 days out I automatically cut the projection in half.*  That tends to end up matching reality in most cases.



This was from last night at midnight to this morning at 10am that the National Weather Service cut it in 1/2.

  I still think they may be wrong.  For every panicking Met lowering their snow totals, there seems to be a Met staying the course.


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## ZYDECORICH (Feb 8, 2013)

1:50 pm, almost 2 inches here in the Highlands of NJ and beginning to crank. The local hills will be fun with the kids tomorrow and Sunday.


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## Euler (Feb 8, 2013)

Abubob said:


> What's this I hear about Mass roads closing to traffic after 4 pm Friday?



Gov of Massachussetts has declared state of emegency and issued a travel ban for the entire state beginning at 4PM.  I've never heard of a statewide travel ban before.  This storm is something!


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## jrmagic (Feb 8, 2013)

Euler said:


> Gov of Massachussetts has declared state of emegency and issued a travel ban for the entire state beginning at 4PM.  I've never heard of a statewide travel ban before.  This storm is something!



Mass is scared of a 78' repeat. If they didnt do this and some ahole dies stranded on some road the political backlash would likely be severe.

Cranking here in Westchester too. I went to the store a little while ago and had an honest 1/2" on the car in 25 odd minutes.


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## Abubob (Feb 8, 2013)

Here it comes. Yeah!


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## Puck it (Feb 8, 2013)

Abubob said:


> What's this I hear about Mass roads closing to traffic after 4 pm Friday?




I will be on the roads at 5am if there areas are open.


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## bheemsoth (Feb 8, 2013)

Anyone else getting worried about the storm output for Southern Vermont?


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## St. Bear (Feb 8, 2013)

bheemsoth said:


> Anyone else getting worried about the storm output for Southern Vermont?



Whether its 24" or 15", I honestly don't think its going to affect my day any less


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## bheemsoth (Feb 8, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Whether its 24" or 15", I honestly don't think its going to affect my day any less



That's true and a good way to look at it. In all honesty 15" would be a lot easier for my morning travel tomorrow.


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## jrmagic (Feb 8, 2013)

LMAO nice reality check  As of a couple of days ago we were looking at an upside of 6" at best. Enjoy whatever Ullr grants or prepare sacrifices for better results in the future


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## St. Bear (Feb 8, 2013)

bheemsoth said:


> That's true and a good way to look at it. In all honesty 15" would be a lot easier for my morning travel tomorrow.



I mean, don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for 24, but I realize there's a point where I really can't tell the difference. Especially with my limited powder experience.


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## Bene288 (Feb 8, 2013)

Snowing pretty good here in the Dacks, calling for the heaviest of snow starting at midnight. Even if it snowed all night at this pace they would pick up a good 7". Some of the fluffiest snow I've ever seen. I'd be happy with a 15" range, but I think we'll be lucky to get 10 according to NOAA.


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## Bumpsis (Feb 8, 2013)

jrmagic said:


> Mass is scared of a 78' repeat. If they didnt do this and some ahole dies stranded on some road the political backlash would likely be severe.



I'm sure you're right. On the other hand, the storm has been less than impressive so far here (I'm on the southern side of Boston). The snow total is no more than 3 inches and yes, it's blowing so visbilty is something of an issue. But declaring state of emergency for this is a bit ridiculous. If you cautious and have snow tires on, you could easily move around.  The big snowfall is not suppose to be here until midnight.


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## j law (Feb 8, 2013)

Skied Okemo today and there was about 2 inches that accumulated through the day.  Since the lifts closed, it's picked up the pace... but I don't think this is going to be the big blower that we were hoping for.

That said, this storm will help open a lot of the steeper terrain and the glades which is awesome.

Any suggestions on where to go tomorrow?  I'm staying Claremont, NH tonight and trying to decide what to do tomorrow.  Magic?  Sunapee?  Any other reports out there?


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## jrmagic (Feb 8, 2013)

j law said:


> Skied Okemo today and there was about 2 inches that accumulated through the day.  Since the lifts closed, it's picked up the pace... but I don't think this is going to be the big blower that we were hoping for.
> 
> That said, this storm will help open a lot of the steeper terrain and the glades which is awesome.
> 
> Any suggestions on where to go tomorrow?  I'm staying Claremont, NH tonight and trying to decide what to do tomorrow.  Magic?  Sunapee?  Any other reports out there?



Youre in a good place to zig or zag. If I were you Id hold off till tomorrow early morning and see what has fallen and decide based on reality.


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## Abubob (Feb 8, 2013)

Looks like everybody's getting some. That "hole" over northern Vermont is a hole in the radar.


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 8, 2013)

Normally that is true but now that the winds have shifted from the north to the E/SE, the White Mtns are sucking up all the snow. It has been barely flurrying here in N VT for the last 4 hours.


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 8, 2013)

And HOLY crap it looks like central CT is getting destroying in that map!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 8, 2013)

Coventry, CT has ONE FOOT of snow in 90 minutes.  

That's 8" per hour or 1 inch of snow in 7.5 minutes.  Head Explodes.


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## Boston Bulldog (Feb 8, 2013)

7 inches so far in Sunapee nh. Heavy band is approaching in the coming hours and should bump us over a foot


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## j law (Feb 8, 2013)

jrmagic said:


> Youre in a good place to zig or zag. If I were you Id hold off till tomorrow early morning and see what has fallen and decide based on reality.



Any idea how I can check the snowfall totals early in the am (before the resorts report their snow totals?).  Or now that I think of it, do you know what time they report? it use to be 6:30 when I lived in Co.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 8, 2013)

Here's approximately what to expect from the rest of tonight.


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## Tin (Feb 9, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Here's approximately what to expect from the rest of tonight.



Already at about 18" here. Can't believe we could see that much more.  Doubt I will make it up to Crotched . Road has yet to be touched with a plow.


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## powhunter (Feb 9, 2013)

Solid 3 feet or more? WTF 6 foot drifts!! Here in Southington CT

Steveo


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## riverc0il (Feb 9, 2013)

About a foot here, maybe a touch more, still snowing.


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## St. Bear (Feb 9, 2013)

I didn't break out the ruler, but there's a a solid 15-18" on the ground here, outside of Manchester, NH. Its still snowing too, so we might push the 20" that they forecasted.

Sadly, the road hasn't been touched yet.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 9, 2013)

In the heart of Orange County NY about a foot.


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## riverc0il (Feb 9, 2013)

Wind doesn't seem to be an issue. Mount Wash is only at 50 MPH. It isn't blowing here in Ashland at all. Snocountry has reports coming in, Loon only 9" seems surprisingly low. Ragged at 20" seems surprisingly high considering Sunapee is reporting 16" in a better location for the storm per estimates.


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## St. Bear (Feb 9, 2013)

Plow!!!!


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## Euler (Feb 9, 2013)

Solid foot in Putney, VT.  The mountains should be prime!  My kids decided to stay home and play in the snow so I'll miss the freshies today at the resorts today while I play at home on my BC gear.  Hopefully get out and sample the soft snow via a lift somewhere tomorrow.


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## threepedals (Feb 9, 2013)

Storm missed the mad river valley, We got 1.5inches overnight. The 8 we got throughout the day yesterday will still make for a great day, but not the blizzard we had been hoping for.


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## powhunter (Feb 9, 2013)

Bah Ha Ha Ha!!!!


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## riverc0il (Feb 9, 2013)

riverc0il said:


> Wind doesn't seem to be an issue. Mount Wash is only at 50 MPH.


Made the right call here. Peabody Quad was down right _pleasant_ without any wind at all. NE wind FTW! One person I rode up with said they got to Waterville Valley at 9am, took one run, and then they shut down all the lifts except Valley Run. Meanwhile, all scheduled lifts ran all day at Cannon. Summit was VERY cold and windy but the wind was blowing straight up Cannonball Quad. VERY strange having the wind at my back on that lift. Not many people braving the summit.


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## Cannonball (Feb 9, 2013)

^^ for sure!!!  Was pretty happy with a handful of T2B burners on the tram to start the day.  Then cycles of upper, zoomer, Peabody, repeat.  So drifty.  Everything from bare ground to knee deep. Great day to be on a board. Some phenomenal skiing going on but it looked like a workout that you really had to be on your game for.

Still, all that on a decent base would have been something really special.  This is the base now I guess.


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## skiking4 (Feb 9, 2013)

Plattekill tomorrow. Got totally ditched so, me, a 17-year old skier, will be heading up alone as I won't miss out on the possibly the best conditions of the season. If you're heading up and spot a orange jacket, black ski pants, and white helmet teen skier with race guards on the poles, I'd love a ski buddy.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 9, 2013)

skiking4 said:


> Plattekill tomorrow. Got totally ditched so, me, a 17-year old skier, will be heading up alone as I won't miss out on the possibly the best conditions of the season. If you're heading up and spot a orange jacket, black ski pants, and white helmet teen skier with race guards on the poles, I'd love a ski buddy.



Fyi Potterbrothers in Kingston is open tomorrow at 8 am and selling flex tickets for Platty for tomorrow for 32$


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