# Weekend of Feb 23rd Predictions



## Nick (Feb 21, 2013)

Looks like some more potential to the southern resorts? 



Where's the place to be?!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 21, 2013)

I just posted this is the other weather thread, but if the overnight Euro is right, this thing is less "good" than we all previously thought for most of ski country.   

Model comes in with highest snowfall out to sea now instead of interior, storm moved WAY east, with less h2o, and a bit warmer temps.   Pretty much sucks compared to its' potential if the Euro is right, but hey, at least it will still snow.  The Cats and DAX are the biggest losers if this verifies due to the huge eastern drag.  Maybe this run is an aberration (hoping).


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## Nick (Feb 21, 2013)

If that model is true I'm going to wachusett. :lol:


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 21, 2013)

Nick said:


> If that model is true I'm going to wachusett. :lol:



IF that model is true, with that severe of an eastern push, it wouldn't shock me if the thing trends out to sea and everyone misses out.   

Nothing to do but wait for the 12z run at this point and hope the above was just a crappy run.


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## St. Bear (Feb 21, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> I just posted this is the other weather thread, but if the overnight Euro is right, this thing is less "good" than we all previously thought for most of ski country.
> 
> Model comes in with highest snowfall out to sea now instead of interior, storm moved WAY east, with less h2o, and a bit warmer temps. Pretty much sucks compared to its' potential if the Euro is right, but hey, at least it will still snow. The Cats and DAX are the biggest losers if this verifies due to the huge eastern drag. Maybe this run is an aberration (hoping).



That's still 6-10" for most of NH.  I'll take it.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 21, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> That's still 6-10" for most of NH.  I'll take it.


 
If the above model trend continues it would go OTS and not be a storm for anyone, which is now the main threat to watch.  
But just yesterday this was a fantastic storm for everyone (Cats, Dax, Greens, White, ME), and now there are several things that could sadly go wrong.  Gotta cross fingers and toes now.


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## abc (Feb 21, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> If the above model trend continues it would go OTS and not be a storm for anyone, which is now the main threat to watch.
> 
> Gotta cross fingers and toes now.


Yep, that's what I worry about. I've seen it happened before, that ellusive "trend"...


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## hammer (Feb 21, 2013)

Latest on David Epstien's blog on boston.com, but I think these will be all over the place over the next few days:


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## ScottySkis (Feb 21, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> If the above model trend continues it would go OTS and not be a storm for anyone, which is now the main threat to watch.
> But just yesterday this was a fantastic storm for everyone (Cats, Dax, Greens, White, ME), and now there are several things that could sadly go wrong.  Gotta cross fingers and toes now.



So Platty will get any snow this weekend?


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## Tin (Feb 21, 2013)

Berkshire East will be great on Sunday.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 21, 2013)

Tin said:


> Berkshire East will be great on Sunday.



Yes great point.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 21, 2013)

Scotty said:


> So Platty will get any snow this weekend?



I'm going to wait for the 12z Euro to come out (within the hour) before casting myself into the pit of despair.

  But we went from Platty getting 9" to 12" to Platty getting nothing to 4" in just one model run.  Just a dramatic eastward push, the jackpot zone went from being over Connecticut, to being about 125 miles into the Atlantic Ocean.


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## Tin (Feb 21, 2013)

Sacrificing my neighbors farmyard animals as we speak...


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## ScottySkis (Feb 21, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'm going to wait for the 12z Euro to come out (within the hour) before casting myself into the pit of despair.
> 
> But we went from Platty getting 9" to 12" to Platty getting nothing to 4" in just one model run.  Just a dramatic eastward push, the jackpot zone went from being over Connecticut, to being about 125 miles into the Atlantic Ocean.



That be okay.


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## JimG. (Feb 21, 2013)

My prediction is...

I will definitely be skiing this weekend.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 21, 2013)

The Euro giveth, the Euro taketh away.

This is looking like not much more than a dusting to a few inches for NY.  Elsewhere in ski country it's a massive downgrade versus previous projections as it continues to trend east and into the Atlantic.

At least there's another shot on goal coming next week.


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## St. Bear (Feb 21, 2013)

JimG. said:


> My prediction is...
> 
> I will definitely be skiing this weekend.



Sadly, I can't make the same prediction, which is why I'm hanging on every run of the weather models.


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## bzrperfspec77 (Feb 21, 2013)

At least this time around it looks like I will be able to get out of my driveway to go skiing! That little Orange spec is where I'm at in the Berkshires. 30" is way too much to drive through in a 200 foot winding driveway, let alone try to plow with a 1988 Honda 4-Wheeler!

Any new snow, is good snow. I will be out there Sunday.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 21, 2013)

What does our awesome great perdicter of snow Mr Winn thinks?


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## kingslug (Feb 21, 2013)

JimG. said:


> My prediction is...
> 
> I will definitely be skiing this weekend.


Ditto...


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## WinnChill (Feb 21, 2013)

Scotty said:


> What does our awesome great perdicter of snow Mr Winn thinks?



I like the typo PERdicter...I'm stickin with that!  Don't know about the adjectives because I knee-jerked on Platty...sorry man.  Even though I didn't get specific, it looked like there would be potential for them.


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## St. Bear (Feb 21, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> I like the typo PERdicter...I'm stickin with that! Don't know about the adjectives because I knee-jerked on Platty...sorry man. Even though I didn't get specific, it looked like there would be potential for them.



You had it right a couple days ago when the site didn't update.  Should've kept it like that.

Is this thing looking like a total bust?


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## WinnChill (Feb 21, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> You had it right a couple days ago when the site didn't update.  Should've kept it like that.
> 
> Is this thing looking like a total bust?



I didn't bite on the model data yesterday for VT/NH/ME resorts and updated them yesterday to at or just above half a foot..even less further north...still sticking with that.


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## mlctvt (Feb 21, 2013)

NOAA Albany just put up a new snowfall map for Southern VT. 
Calling for 8-10" between now and Sunday night for Mount Snow and Magic. Let's hope this stays and doesn't go further east. 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/WSW.htm


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## JimG. (Feb 21, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Sadly, I can't make the same prediction, which is why I'm hanging on every run of the weather models.



Much sadder than if it doesn't snow.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 21, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> I like the typo PERdicter...I'm stickin with that!  Don't know about the adjectives because I knee-jerked on Platty...sorry man.  Even though I didn't get specific, it looked like there would be potential for them.



No problem, your still my favorite forecaster.


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## WinnChill (Feb 21, 2013)

Scotty said:


> No problem, your still my favorite forecaster.



I pictured Platty further south too--my mistake.  That's what I get for speaking too son.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 21, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> I pictured Platty further south too--my mistake.  That's what I get for speaking too son.



One more questions for Mr Winn Chill, do you think driving my non snow tires car( car hates snow) from mid Hudson Valley NY Middletown Sunday morning on I 84 20 miles east and then 60 miles North on I 87 to Kingston, then going west again for 50 miles or so. Or am I better off going west on 17 towards Bingham NY, which way you think might be less snow. I would check on your great forecast site for ski hills snowforecast.com. but that only gives me great prediction for snow in the great fun hills.


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## KWRio23 (Feb 21, 2013)

Scotty said:


> One more questions for Mr Winn Chill, do you think driving my non snow tires car( car hates snow) from mid Hudson Valley NY Middletown Sunday morning on I 84 20 miles east and then 60 miles North on I 87 to Kingston, then going west again for 50 miles or so. Or am I better off going west on 17 towards Bingham NY, which way you think might be less snow. I would check on your great forecast site for ski hills snowforecast.com. but that only gives me great prediction for snow in the great fun hills.



Dude ... I've seen you ask WinnChill for a personal forecast on the last couple of storms, but driving directions? Really?! Not trying to butt in or be rude, but he probably has other things to worry about.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 21, 2013)

KWRio23 said:


> Dude ... I've seen you ask WinnChill for a personal forecast on the last couple of storms, but driving directions? Really?! Not trying to butt in or be rude, but he probably has other things to worry about.



Maybe but it never hurts to ask, I just trying to find out if I need hotel really.


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## octopus (Feb 21, 2013)

you waited over a year to post that?


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## Nick (Feb 21, 2013)

Omg


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## abc (Feb 21, 2013)




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## ScottySkis (Feb 21, 2013)

Nick said:


> Omg





abc said:


>



I should be banned from A zone lol, a world without out Scotty.


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## St. Bear (Feb 21, 2013)

octopus said:


> you waited over a year to post that?


Ha!


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## ScottySkis (Feb 21, 2013)

NOAA is saying rain Saturday night for Roxbury, town Platty is in hope maybe elevation gives them snow. Mess up forecast it suppose to snow half foot were I live, no ski hills here and at plattty rain Saturday night, maybe I should go to South Vermont on Sunday?


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 21, 2013)

Scotty said:


> *NOAA is saying rain Saturday night for Roxbury, *town Platty is in hope maybe elevation gives them snow. Mess up forecast it suppose to snow half foot were I live, no ski hills here and at plattty rain Saturday night, maybe I should go to South Vermont on Sunday?



My money is on that being wrong-o.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 21, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> My money is on that being wrong-o.



So what do you think will happen? Also I will put this in the cheap thread but just Googled pricechopper ski pass and they have 2 other deals. 1 is a 59 purchase good at several big hills anytime. The other is 29$ tickets for Plattekill and 3 others hills, also good anytime this year.


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## billski (Feb 21, 2013)

this is not good.  I bought a bread and milk concession.


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## abc (Feb 22, 2013)

What's the latest update of the storm? Any more change of path? Has it gone entirely out to sea?

Looks like the Cats will get some non-frozen stuff on Saturday too?


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## billski (Feb 22, 2013)

NAM
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php
GFS
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

If Tim Kelly is right, there are going to be a lot of sick days next week!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 22, 2013)

billski said:


> *If Tim Kelly is right, there are going to be a lot of sick days next week!*



I'm guessing he's a Euro fan, because that model is displaying dirty snow porn for the next 7+ days.

Personally I view a map like this about the same as I view Kate Upton. 

 Nice to look at, but I know I have no chance of it happening.


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## St. Bear (Feb 22, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'm guessing he's a Euro fan, because that model is displaying dirty snow porn for the next 7+ days.
> 
> Personally I view a map like this about the same as I view Kate Upton.
> 
> Nice to look at, but I know I have no chance of it happening.



Well, the Euro does have a much better track record this year than the GFS.


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## abc (Feb 22, 2013)

That's next week. What about tomorrow?

Or is that a way of dealing with the bad news by look past it to next week  instead? ;-)


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## fbrissette (Feb 22, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Personally I view a map like this about the same as I view Kate Upton.



The interesting question is 'if given the choice between this map or Kate Upton' which would you take ?


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## legalskier (Feb 22, 2013)

hammer said:


> Latest on David Epstien's blog on boston.com, but I think these will be all over the place over the next few days:




"This will be a storm where several miles makes a big difference."  -David Epstein


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## ScottySkis (Feb 22, 2013)

abc said:


> That's next week. What about tomorrow?
> 
> Or is that a way of dealing with the bad news by look past it to next week  instead? ;-)



Well weather people on here are saying Platty should get all snow this weekend, and you can get price chopper tickets for 30$ for Platty good to end of March, any time and 3 other hills, I put in the steep and cheap thread fyi. Pretty sure I be at platty the whole weekend.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 22, 2013)

fbrissette said:


> The interesting question is 'if given the choice between this map or Kate Upton' which would you take ?



I'm a skier, but I'm a heterosexual skier.



legalskier said:


> "This will be a storm where several miles makes a big difference."  -David Epstein



I'm guessing that map is a bit stale?  Some of those totals seem way too high given the storm's eastern movement.


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## legalskier (Feb 22, 2013)

Scotty said:


> Well weather people on here are saying Platty should get all snow this weekend, and you can get price chopper tickets for 30$ for Platty good to end of March, any time and 3 other hills, I put in the steep and cheap thread fyi. Pretty sure I be at platty the whole weekend.



And now Platty is saying it too, Scotty. I just got this email:

_*GREETINGS Skiers, Snowboarders & Snowtubers*
RECEIVED 12"+ of NEW SNOW in past 48 hours &* conditions are *__*UNBELIEVABLE* -
BEST THEY'VE BEEN THIS WINTER!  Don't miss it....should be close to 100% open for weekend
with FRESH TRACKS PLUS looks like MORE SNOW in the forecast for the weekend!!!_

Friday Feb 22 -- 8am live webcam


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## hammer (Feb 22, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'm guessing that map is a bit stale?  Some of those totals seem way too high given the storm's eastern movement.


With this system, any map that's more than a few hours old is stale...:roll:


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## billski (Feb 22, 2013)

hammer said:


> With this system, any map that's more than a few hours old is stale...:roll:



I'm still having my parade, even if you're raining on it!  :razz:


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 22, 2013)

hammer said:


> *With this system, any map that's more than a few hours old is stale*...:roll:



You were saying?

Hopefully the snow starts to fall soon, because any more map updates on this thing and nobody will be getting much snow. lol.  The trend is NOT our friend with this thing.   Hopefully this produces more at elevation for everyone than the map shows.


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## hammer (Feb 22, 2013)

I don't like the trends but I'd have to admit the initial forecasts of a dumping of heavy wet snow in the flatlands wasn't exactly what I had in mind either...

Looking forward to next week.


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## steamboat1 (Feb 22, 2013)

You could always go to Hawaii.

http://weather.hawaii.edu/current/b...ueue=1&productqueue=1&bulletin=winter-weather


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## WinnChill (Feb 22, 2013)

Scotty said:


> One more questions for Mr Winn Chill, do you think driving my non snow tires car( car hates snow) from mid Hudson Valley NY Middletown Sunday morning on I 84 20 miles east and then 60 miles North on I 87 to Kingston, then going west again for 50 miles or so. Or am I better off going west on 17 towards Bingham NY, which way you think might be less snow. I would check on your great forecast site for ski hills snowforecast.com. but that only gives me great prediction for snow in the great fun hills.



I don't know the roads there so I really couldn't tell you.  Sorry man.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 22, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> I don't know the roads there so I really couldn't tell you.  Sorry man.



No problem,.looking like not so much snow any way but thanks Winn.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 22, 2013)

legalskier said:


> And now Platty is saying it too, Scotty. I just got this email:
> 
> _*GREETINGS Skiers, Snowboarders & Snowtubers*
> RECEIVED 12"+ of NEW SNOW in past 48 hours &* conditions are *__*UNBELIEVABLE* -
> ...


I think it be good snow both days coming up.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 22, 2013)

NOAA weather for Platty Saturday and Saturday night into Sunday now is snow and sleet, mo rain ya.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 22, 2013)

Scotty said:


> NOAA weather for Platty Saturday and Saturday night into Sunday now is snow and sleet, mo rain ya.



Again, I'll go with all snow, little to no sleet.  NOAA can eat my ass too.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 22, 2013)

Here's the first call from one of my favorite online weather wonks.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 22, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Here's the first call from one of my favorite online weather wonks.



Looks great, you coming to Platty this weekend BG?


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## billski (Feb 22, 2013)

This "wundermap" is probably one of the most understandable animations of the three models used around here.  Under "layers" tab, select the models section and make model selections.
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/


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## fbrissette (Feb 22, 2013)

billski said:


> This "wundermap" is probably one of the most understandable animations of the three models used around here.  Under "layers" tab, select the models section and make model selections.
> http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/



Thanks for the link.  That's a good one.


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## St. Bear (Feb 22, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Here's the first call from one of my favorite online weather wonks.



So the way it seems to me, is that he took the highest and lowest model runs, and that's his range.


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## St. Bear (Feb 22, 2013)

Things are not looking good.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 22, 2013)

Scotty said:


> Looks great, you coming to Platty this weekend BG?



Yes. I've just arrived at base camp (aka Rhinebeck, NY)


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## ScottySkis (Feb 22, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yes. I've just arrived at base camp (aka Rhinebeck, NY)



Nice perfect spot.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 22, 2013)

Tap me on the shoulder if you see me.  I have a big Devils sticker on my helmet (shocking) and an AZ sticker (courtesy of Nick).


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## ScottySkis (Feb 22, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Tap me on the shoulder if you see me.  I have a big Devils sticker on my helmet (shocking) and an AZ sticker (courtesy of Nick).



I don't have Rangers stickers but it be cool to meet you tomorrow, I have bright red pants, I should wear my Rangers hoodie, but I leave it in the closest. Your team is playing like they should great. To bad I can't say the same about the Rangers.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 22, 2013)

Don't have PC access, but guessing 00z must have come back west a bit, as the guy who made that map above was just altered to 2-4, 4-8, and 8-12.


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## St. Bear (Feb 23, 2013)

Still a snow event, but not the fun time we were all expecting.

http://t.co/18fyA4GclL


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 23, 2013)

This one falls under the category of "embarrassing" for professional weather folk. Computer models butchered this.  Oh well, still having fun @Platty. Ski on. Folks.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 23, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> This one falls under the category of "embarrassing" for professional weather folk. Computer models butchered this.  Oh well, still having fun @Platty. Ski on. Folks.



Me and Cornhead had fun times here today to. Hope to meet you tomorrow.


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## St. Bear (Feb 23, 2013)

Non rain started at the CT/MA border. By the time I was north of the Mass Pike, it was all snow.


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## St. Bear (Feb 23, 2013)

I spoke too soon. Rain/snow mix on 495.


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## Boston Bulldog (Feb 23, 2013)

Interesting, all snow here on 24 approaching 128


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## ScottySkis (Feb 23, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> I spoke too soon. Rain/snow mix on 495.



No new snow at Platty last night but still fun times, were to you ski today lots of powder?


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## Bene288 (Feb 23, 2013)

Snowing hard in Killington. Pico picked up a good 3" today.Untouched trees everywhere.


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## hammer (Feb 23, 2013)

Snow was coming down at Loon when we left.  Stretched all the way down to Concord.  Was still light but they should get at least a few inches out of this one.

Just started to sleet at home (near MA/NH border).  Don't think we will be stuck at home tomorrow.


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## St. Bear (Feb 23, 2013)

Today was a travel day, tomorrow is a ski day.

Fine snow I'm NH, already starting to coat the ground.


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## billski (Feb 23, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> So the way it seems to me, is that he took the highest and lowest model runs, and that's his range.



These charts are used by businesses to assess risk - insurance, transportation, construction, etc.


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## billski (Feb 23, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Fine snow I'm NH, already starting to coat the ground.


  Let's keep it that way!


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## ScottySkis (Feb 23, 2013)

I predict snow, and.Scotty going a monk sorry. I going through withdrawal.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 24, 2013)

Just got to gunstock.  5-6" down and still hammering


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## deadheadskier (Feb 24, 2013)

Make that 8 to 10.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 24, 2013)

deadheadskier said:


> Just got to gunstock.  5-6" down and still hammering



You win. Have fun,.platty.. nice fog leaving now snow constituent today.


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## billski (Feb 24, 2013)

deadheadskier said:


> Just got to gunstock.  5-6" down and still hammering



Cool; Goodness!  How is the moisture content in the snow?


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## deadheadskier (Feb 24, 2013)

billski said:


> Cool; Goodness!  How is the moisture content in the snow?



500k h2o molecules per square micron


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## billski (Feb 24, 2013)

deadheadskier said:


> 500k h2o molecules per square micron



OMG that's close to beer!  :beer:


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## Puck it (Feb 24, 2013)

deadheadskier said:


> 500k h2o molecules per square micron




Stick to Foie Gros

There are 3.34 x 10[SUP]13[/SUP] H[SUB]2[/SUB]O molecules in a 1 mg snowflake*.*





​


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## deadheadskier (Feb 24, 2013)

How many 1 mg snowflakes in an acre of snow covered in 14"?   

That was the total when I left Gunstock today.  Incredible day.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 24, 2013)

deadheadskier said:


> How many 1 mg snowflakes in an acre of snow covered in 14"?
> 
> That was the total when I left Gunstock today.  Incredible day.



Not 77.???


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