# Manitoba Mauler 2.0: 2/15 threat



## Boston Bulldog (Feb 11, 2015)

Before I do an extensive meteorological write up on why I think this could be a potent storm, and why I think it'll happen, here's some bullet points.

-The Upper Level Low is modeled to close over Ontario/Lake Superior. Incredible!

-The disturbance was just sampled for the first time over Nunavut tonight, and models have swung west accordingly. This means that they detected nuances that's causing them to zero in on a hit.

-This is yet another energetic Mauler dropping down into an explosive setup, think a pool of lighter fluid and a blowtorch. A closed ULL hitting the Gulf Stream is going to produce fireworks.

-The Baroclinic Zone is expansive after the Friday miss and allows for an impressive easterly flow. = Abundant moisture/no need for the southern stream to advect north.

-I will be in Colorado while it's happening :roll:


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2015)

It should be a potent storm, but it needs to come west for most of ski country.   At the moment it's a potent storm for bluefish and coastal dwellers.   Fingers crossed; the pattern has been pushing things west of depiction recently, so there is at least some hope.

EDIT:  Nevermind, I wasnt paying attention and thought you were talking about one after that one.  That's the one that really might turn into something good I think.


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## drjeff (Feb 12, 2015)

Bitter temps with BIG winds, especially on Sunday AM with not much snow over *most* of New England ski country - this thing is going to be a monster, but likely not reach monster status until it's too far North and East of most of ski country.  

Sunday will likely see plenty of wind holds and some harsh temps to get out and enjoy this sport we love so much


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## C-Rex (Feb 12, 2015)

I don't know what most of the OP means, but using my powers of deduction I think it's going to snow.  However, it'll be north and east of ski country so may have limited effect on the resorts.  AmIright?


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## Abominable (Feb 12, 2015)

Yeah yeah yeah sounds well thought out and all, but can we get some pretty, colorful maps with those deep purples right on top of Magic?

I'm not here for science, I'm here for the hype!


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## xwhaler (Feb 12, 2015)

drjeff said:


> Sunday will likely see plenty of wind holds and some harsh temps to get out and enjoy this sport we love so much



Looking to head to Crotched on Sunday. I wonder if their HSQ is prone to wind holds? Was going to do Wildcat but seems it will be brutally cold/windy up there that quad may not spin.


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## St. Bear (Feb 12, 2015)

Weather.com


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## Abominable (Feb 12, 2015)

Delivered!


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## Tin (Feb 12, 2015)

GFS and CMC had this thing last weekend and dropped it Monday now it's back. They did a similar thing with Juno.


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## catsup948 (Feb 12, 2015)

If we don't get total sand I could Berkshire East getting 6 inches of fluff out of this


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## catsup948 (Feb 12, 2015)

I agree with BG Tuesday Wednesday is the one to watch for ski country.  Low right over se mass


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## moresnow (Feb 12, 2015)

Tin said:


> GFS and CMC had this thing last weekend and dropped it Monday now it's back. They did a similar thing with Juno.



Who is Juno?

Are you talking about the city in Alaska?  No, wait, that's spelled differently. 

Oh, I know, it's that movie.  Right? 

If I was those models I'd drop that movie too.


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## Warp Daddy (Feb 12, 2015)

We are being told 40 below windchill tonite and again sunday here along the St Lawrence River ..this has been a patternfor thepast couple of weeks 30 -35below windchills but THIS storm will be the coldest o far


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## Quietman (Feb 12, 2015)

xwhaler said:


> Looking to head to Crotched on Sunday. I wonder if their HSQ is prone to wind holds? Was going to do Wildcat but seems it will be brutally cold/windy up there that quad may not spin.



Crotched's quad rarely has wind holds, but it does happen occasionally.


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## hammer (Feb 12, 2015)

Warp Daddy said:


> We are being told 40 below windchill tonite and again sunday here along the St Lawrence River ..this has been a patternfor thepast couple of weeks 30 -35below windchills but THIS storm will be the coldest o far


Have you been getting much snow in NNY?


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## drjeff (Feb 12, 2015)

Quietman said:


> Crotched's quad rarely has wind holds, but it does happen occasionally.




My local Met, who is usually quite accurate, geeked out a bit on his weather blog this afternoon about how Sunday AM the real potential for 60-65mph gusts across Southern New England at least exists


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## catsup948 (Feb 12, 2015)

This is going to be a big one for Maine!  High ratio , windy.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2015)

First prediction map I've seen............


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## catsup948 (Feb 12, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> First prediction map I've seen............



I like the 6 inches for here.  Going to blow nicely into the woods!


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## Warp Daddy (Feb 12, 2015)

hammer said:


> Have you been getting much snow in NNY?


. Yes we get buried every year . Snowbanks are approx  4/5 ft high inmy driveway have one across the street 9 ft high . Average depth in my yard about 3.5 ft.

But hey this is NNY , we are used ro it


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## Boston Bulldog (Feb 12, 2015)

The trend is that the storm will dig farther south and strengthen more; this means that the storm will track closer to the coast and more snow will be delivered to the ski areas.


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## catsup948 (Feb 12, 2015)

Boston Bulldog said:


> The trend is that the storm will dig farther south and strengthen more; this means that the storm will track closer to the coast and more snow will be delivered to the ski areas.



This is a very nice trend on this for Berkshire East.


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## moguler6 (Feb 12, 2015)

Gray ME NOAA has weighed in.


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## xwhaler (Feb 12, 2015)

That map is dated 3/13/14


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## xwhaler (Feb 12, 2015)

This is what we want


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## xwhaler (Feb 12, 2015)

Eastern Maine!  Camden SnowBowl!!!


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## bigbog (Feb 12, 2015)

xwhaler said:


> Eastern Maine!  Camden SnowBowl!!!



Also...think Lost Valley may get pretty close to the max....would be great for them.
It's a small, low priced place...._looking good_....hopefully the Loaf might get some if the storm holds together for a while, which it looks like a good possiblity...fwiw


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## Tin (Feb 12, 2015)

Fear the wind with this one. Not a ton of snow like the last few but we are talking some serious wind, like sustained at 40+ throughout southern NE with hurricane force gusts. A few thousand feet up in ski could could be wild and damaging given the weight on the trees. This could really screw things up.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2015)

A few 4-6 predictions for the Poconos.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 12, 2015)

Catskills snow fall for Roxbury Saturday during the day?


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2015)

00z Canuck & 00z GFS are both in, and *both* have moved south.   This should tuck it into the coast...might be getting interesting for ski country.   This is turning into the neverending winter of "correct" storm adjustments.

EDIT: Added depictions of both models at 12z Sunday.


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## xwhaler (Feb 13, 2015)




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## soulseller (Feb 13, 2015)

The problem is wind, most of VT/NH is looking at ~20mph with gusts of 40 on Sunday.


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## drjeff (Feb 13, 2015)

soulseller said:


> The problem is wind, most of VT/NH is looking at ~20mph with gusts of 40 on Sunday.



I'd be thrilled if it's "just" 20mph with gusts to 40 in So Vt on Sunday!!


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## soulseller (Feb 13, 2015)

drjeff said:


> I'd be thrilled if it's "just" 20mph with gusts to 40 in So Vt on Sunday!!



NWS calling for northwest wind 16 to 18 mph at Magic Sunday.


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## Puck it (Feb 13, 2015)

Yeah 20mmph would be nice.

NWS Cannon Forecast at 3720'  

Snow with areas of blowing snow before 10am, then snow likely with areas of blowing snow between 10am and 1pm, then areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow after 1pm. High near 1. Very windy, with a north wind around 50 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.


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## St. Bear (Feb 13, 2015)

If you go by the NWS advisories, less of a wind threat for most of ski country.


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## fcksummer (Feb 13, 2015)

Puck it said:


> Yeah 20mmph would be nice.
> 
> NWS Cannon Forecast at 3720'
> 
> Snow with areas of blowing snow before 10am, then snow likely with areas of blowing snow between 10am and 1pm, then areas of blowing snow and a chance of snow after 1pm. High near 1. Very windy, with a north wind around 50 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.



Cannon looks pretty brutal this weekend. I might think about Bretton Woods to escape some of the wind.


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## Cannonball (Feb 13, 2015)

fcksummer said:


> Cannon looks pretty brutal this weekend. I might think about Bretton Woods to escape some of the wind.



Good plan.  It shouldn't be too windy in the lift lines (where you will be spending 90% of your day)


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## Puck it (Feb 13, 2015)

Cannonball said:


> Good plan. It shouldn't be too windy in the lift lines (where you will be spending 90% of your day)



LOL


I may just wait for the weather to get better.


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## soulseller (Feb 13, 2015)

Cannonball said:


> Good plan.  It shouldn't be too windy in the lift lines (where you will be spending 90% of your day)










I was there two weekends ago, we had similar winds that weekend, no problems with wind holds OR lift lines.

Rosebrook glades are pretty entertaining, Stickney are a waste of time, to short and flat. I might be there Sunday too.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2015)




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## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2015)

Here's the 00z Euro snowfall depiction from the overnight run.  

Keep in mind with the very cold temps you'll need to multiply the above by something like 1.7 or 1.8 or so.

EDIT:  Which would mean almost 4 feet of snow in that little area of Maine if this is to be believed.


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## Tin (Feb 13, 2015)

Wildcat will be amazing. Wind chill values below -30 and wind holds wI'll really suck though.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2015)

12z GFS is out.  Remember to multiply.


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## dlague (Feb 13, 2015)

Puck it said:


> LOL
> 
> 
> I may just wait for the weather to get better.



What lifts run at cannon on windy days?


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## Cannonball (Feb 13, 2015)

soulseller said:


> I was there two weekends ago, we had similar winds that weekend, no problems with wind holds OR lift lines.



2 weekends ago wasn't the start of school vacation week.


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## Cannonball (Feb 13, 2015)

dlague said:


> What lifts run at cannon on windy days?



With a north wind.... all of them. But that doesn't mean you'll want to be on one of them!

  South winds are the killer at Cannon.


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## Tin (Feb 13, 2015)

The winds will be so strong Idk if direction will matter.


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## Puck it (Feb 13, 2015)

Tin said:


> The winds will be so strong Idk if direction will matter.



Yup, over 50mph sustained at alttitude!!!


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## esenuqangelivq (Feb 13, 2015)

Plovdiv


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## dlague (Feb 13, 2015)

Cannonball said:


> 2 weekends ago wasn't the start of school vacation week.



Seems like all the heavy traffic black out periods have been hit with some kind of weather.  Christmas Day and MLK Day had the R word.  Christmas break saw r^&n then turned cold for a hard refreeze.  MLK weekend started with really cold temps (single digits) on Saturday then went to rain on Sunday into Monday.  Funny the following weekend was the huge snow storm.

Now this President Day weekend is being hit with high winds and super cold temps which will keep people away and staying cold into MASS vacation week.


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## Cannonball (Feb 13, 2015)

Tin said:


> The winds will be so strong Idk if direction will matter.





Puck it said:


> Yup, over 50mph sustained at alttitude!!!



Good day to check out what they're doing at Eustis!


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## dlague (Feb 13, 2015)

Puck it said:


> Yup, over 50mph sustained at alttitude!!!





Cannonball said:


> With a north wind.... all of them. But that doesn't mean you'll want to be on one of them!
> 
> South winds are the killer at Cannon.



Will find something to ski somewhere!  Even if it is Veterans Memorial mentioned in a trip report.


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## xwhaler (Feb 13, 2015)

A small group of us AZ'ers are looking at Crotched for Sunday...if we can make it there!


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## xwhaler (Feb 13, 2015)

dlague said:


> Will find something to ski somewhere!  Even if it is Veterans Memorial mentioned in a trip report.


Whaleback could be a decent play for you guys from Concord if you didn't want to deal with the winds at Cannon. $20 Sunday AM's 9-12:30


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2015)

Final call


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2015)

Looking incrementally better.


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## WWF-VT (Feb 14, 2015)

It's 10 below zero and snowing at 7 AM here at the base of Mt Ellen


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## Savemeasammy (Feb 14, 2015)

WWF-VT said:


> It's 10 below zero and snowing at 7 AM here at the base of Mt Ellen



As long as it's not windy...!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## gladerider (Feb 14, 2015)

-10 and snowing at the base of Jay Peak


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## billski (Feb 14, 2015)

You guys see this one?


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## soulseller (Feb 14, 2015)

billski said:


> You guys see this one?



Nope, what the heck is that?

13* and snowing pretty good in Sanbornton. Wanted to get out this afternoon but hung with the family instead. Going to make a run at Ragged tomorrow morning, hopefully the wind doesn't ruin it for me.


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## WWF-VT (Feb 14, 2015)

Savemeasammy said:


> As long as it's not windy...!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



No wind, snowed all day, great time to be on the mountain


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## Quietman (Feb 14, 2015)

xwhaler said:


> A small group of us AZ'ers are looking at Crotched for Sunday...if we can make it there!



The glades at the Crotch were killer today, and will only get better!  The powder is light and quite deep.. I only stopped at 5:20 as it was getting a little hard to see in the woods.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 14, 2015)

You skiing tomorrow Quietman?


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## Quietman (Feb 14, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> You skiing tomorrow Quietman?



I wish that I could, but I can't. That's why I was up there today.  Have fun!!


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## St. Bear (Feb 15, 2015)

Bust for Northern NH. Loon is claiming 3", but I think a lot of that fell during the day yesterday.


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## Smellytele (Feb 15, 2015)

Here in central NH we have about 13/14 inches and still coming down at 8:30


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## Puck it (Feb 15, 2015)

Well over a foot at my house!  This sucks.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 15, 2015)

Solid foot at Crotched with thigh deep drifts in the trees.  Incredible skiing


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## bigbog (Feb 15, 2015)

Those predictions sure look sweet billski...   Good that ski-country got some this time....quite the bust(~2") around here as it pulled out to sea the farther north it has gone..but we are getting the wind...40mph+..with stronger gusts.  Oh well...can't win them all.


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## xwhaler (Feb 15, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> Solid foot at Crotched with thigh deep drifts in the trees.  Incredible skiing



What a day!   Crotched was insane today


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## soulseller (Feb 15, 2015)

Ragged was amazing today, never waited more then 2-3 chairs for a lift, boot deep on trail shin to knee deep in the trees. 



Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


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## billski (Feb 15, 2015)

soulseller said:


> Ragged was amazing today, never waited more then 2-3 chairs for a lift, boot deep on trail shin to knee deep in the trees.
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


Cold air is something, huh?  Keeps everyone outside, while the smart people get the goods and know how to stay out of the winds!!


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## deadheadskier (Feb 15, 2015)

1PM holiday Sunday at Crotched


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## hammer (Feb 15, 2015)

Maybe they are all waiting until tomorrow...hope not...


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## Quietman (Feb 15, 2015)

Crotched has an amazing variety of glades for a smaller, southern NH hill.  I keep thinking that more people will realize this, but lift lines are mostly non-existent. I may be able to get some runs in tomorrow, hope you guys didn't flatten out everything!


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## yeggous (Feb 15, 2015)

I love Crotched. Totally under-rated. Cranmore was excellent today. The woods were loaded and nobody was in there. It was surprisingly warm too. Cover was much better at Cranmore than Attitash.

I am thinking Cannon or Bretton Woods tomorrow. Word is that the snow is not great at Bretton Woods. Any word on Cannon?


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