# Christmas Week Forecasts



## ccskier (Dec 16, 2007)

Any ideas of what the weather will be like over xmas week? I have heard that we "may" get a brief usual thaw for that week.  I hope it is off.  Anyone else hear anything else? The Accuweather 15 day forecast for Westfield, VT says some snow and ice, possibility of getting into the 30's+


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## Zand (Dec 16, 2007)

It's still 10 days away, but if climotology comes to truth, it will rain Christmas Day and destroy all the snowcover followed by 60s in January. (Hey... just going by the last 2 years here haha)


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## ccskier (Dec 16, 2007)

Zand said:


> It's still 10 days away, but if climotology comes to truth, it will rain Christmas Day and destroy all the snowcover followed by 60s in January. (Hey... just going by the last 2 years here haha)



That was my thought also, just didn't want to say it.  Figures that I have been tied up all season so far and will be skiing the 26th-2nd/


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## Zand (Dec 16, 2007)

I wasn't being serious lol. That's basically been the past 2 years, but it doesn't appear that a warmup that drastic is coming anytime soon. It looks like we might be leaving our fantasy season for a little while, but I don't think it'll ever make the 60s.


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## severine (Dec 17, 2007)

Well, this morning's forecast (take it for what it's worth) is saying 38* Sunday (Christmas Eve Eve) and rain/mix.  So it could be the start of a warming trend... but I sincerely hope it is not.  Last year it rained heavily on Christmas Eve Eve though...enough to close Ski Sundown for the day.


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## X-Linked (Dec 17, 2007)

Forecasts are useless in the mountains.  Play it by year and you can't be let down.


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## billski (Dec 17, 2007)

Zand said:


> It's still 10 days away, but if climotology comes to truth, it will rain Christmas Day and destroy all the snowcover followed by 60s in January. (Hey... just going by the last 2 years here haha)



:evil: May Ullr strike you down for such evil thoughts :evil:


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## hammer (Dec 17, 2007)

Herb Stevens thinks that there will be NCP on Christmas Eve followed by a warmup...:-?

http://www.snocountry.com/article.php/20071217100332603


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## Zand (Dec 17, 2007)

billski said:


> :evil: May Ullr strike you down for such evil thoughts :evil:



I'll say it once again, Ullr doesn't have the balls to give us snow for more than a month. He's going to wimp out in Old Man Winter's cold spell this week and not come back.


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## loafer89 (Dec 17, 2007)

Here is part of a forecast from Crapuweather for Canada:

*Long Range*
The latest European long range weekly forecast continues to show a major pattern shift across North America the last ten days of December and into at least the first half of January as Arctic air is routed out across much of southern Canada, with the exception of interior BC and northern Alberta. The model continues to forecast a major warming trend for eastern and Atlantic Canada as the main storm track shifts north and west from the U.S. Rockies to the upper Midwest and across northwestern and central Ontario. This track should lead to a snowier pattern for the southern prairies and probably northwestern Ontario. The Pacific jet will also strengthen near southwestern BC, leading to another stormy pattern in that region from the second half of December and into January. The Maritimes should see a noticeable lull in storm activity during the period with a warming trend. 


Canada has a bearing on our cold weather, so who really know's what will happen in the next few weeks,

All I know is that I have 12" of warm December snow in my yard:-?


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## ajl50 (Dec 19, 2007)

I'm not buying this pattern shift yet. 
I know they keep calling for it but I'll see it when it happens...
I was really all about it till yesterday but every time i look a models it just seems like the same stormy pattern is continuing. 
I suspect that here in philly and maybe nyc and points south we'll see a pattern shift and have a warm jan. 
but I don't think that's happening for the north country.


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## KingM (Dec 19, 2007)

All I know is this. Last year, it was warm but for weeks and weeks they promised that a cold, snowy shot was just around the corner. This year it is cold and fantastically snowy, but they keep warning us that we're due for a warm-up. I know which of these scenarios I prefer.

Besides, we've got so much snow now that a warm-up, if it comes, won't kill us, just slow things down for a few days.


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## Warp Daddy (Dec 19, 2007)

Just my .02 but  Weather forcasts are like a crapshoot . I always take the take the inverse logic . They say 60 % chance of rain i say  its FORTY percent chance they ARE WRONG .D: 

Its amazing how many really good ski days i've had that i'd of missed IF I LISTENED to the TALKING HEADS and their over-hyped  forcasts. 

True sometimes they are on target but most of the time i think they are not .


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## billski (Dec 19, 2007)

While I'm an engineer by education, I'm an optimist rather than a pragmatist when it comes for skiing.  Agree with Warp.  If I ran my life by weather forecast (like some I know), I'd never get outside!   I'm sorry, I can't take such advice from pretty faces that never would set foot in the mountains regardless of the season.  I'd rather have cousin Leroy who works at the papermill up north hand out the weather forecasts.

As in life, the reward is proportional to the (calculated) risks you are willing to take.  
Stick your schnozz out the door in the morning, decide and go!


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## Warp Daddy (Dec 19, 2007)

Thank you  Bilski.   You ARE a Gentleman AND a Scholar !! 
And one who is a True son of "The North Country"


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## hammer (Dec 19, 2007)

billski said:


> While I'm an engineer by education, I'm an optimist rather than a pragmatist when it comes for skiing. Agree with Warp. If I ran my life by weather forecast (like some I know), I'd never get outside! I'm sorry, I can't take such advice from pretty faces that never would set foot in the mountains regardless of the season. I'd rather have cousin Leroy who works at the papermill up north hand out the weather forecasts.
> 
> As in life, the reward is proportional to the (calculated) risks you are willing to take.
> Stick your schnozz out the door in the morning, decide and go!


True dat...

I need to stop looking at weather forecasts so much...shouldn't worry about what I can't change.


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## loafer89 (Dec 19, 2007)

The forecasted rain storm for sunday keeps being forecast weaker and weaker with every model run. Hopefully it will be a quick hitting event with little rainfall.

I have heard about a possible noreaster for next wednesday.


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## Zand (Dec 19, 2007)

Loafer... deja vu except it was a mix last Sunday instead of rain. lol


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## loafer89 (Dec 19, 2007)

It's doing absolutly nothing right now. I just put up a Christmas inflatable after shoveling down to our lawn and it's cold, but just cloudy and 32F.


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## ccskier (Dec 19, 2007)

I have been checking to forecast for the Jay area via accuweather and there is no mention of a warm up, actually showing snow.


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## petergriffen (Dec 20, 2007)

read the new Jay,Vt NOAA weather forecast

Saturday: Cloudy, with a high near 29. South wind between 11 and 15 mph. 

Saturday Night: A chance of snow and sleet before 9pm, then a chance of rain, snow and sleet between 9pm and 10pm, then a chance of snow, freezing rain and sleet between 10pm and midnight, then a chance of freezing rain between midnight and 2am, then a chance of rain between 2am and 3am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet between 3am and 4am, then rain likely possibly mixed with sleet after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Freezing rain likely before 8am, then rain showers likely between 8am and 3pm, then rain and snow showers likely after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 70%.


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## JimG. (Dec 20, 2007)

KingM said:


> All I know is this. Last year, it was warm but for weeks and weeks they promised that a cold, snowy shot was just around the corner. This year it is cold and fantastically snowy, but they keep warning us that we're due for a warm-up. I know which of these scenarios I prefer.
> 
> Besides, we've got so much snow now that a warm-up, if it comes, won't kill us, just slow things down for a few days.



Word Bro!

Think snow!


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## Greg (Dec 20, 2007)

petergriffen said:


> Saturday Night: A chance of snow and sleet before 9pm, then a chance of rain, snow and sleet between 9pm and 10pm, then a chance of snow, freezing rain and sleet between 10pm and midnight, then a chance of freezing rain between midnight and 2am, then a chance of rain between 2am and 3am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet between 3am and 4am, then rain likely possibly mixed with sleet after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 60%.



WTF? :blink: NOAA has been doing these whacky hour-by-hour forecasts a lot this season. Kinda silly to try to pin it down that much. Basically means they don't have a clue what will happen when so they try and throw it all in there... :roll:


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## drjeff (Dec 20, 2007)

Greg said:


> WTF? :blink: NOAA has been doing these whacky hour-by-hour forecasts a lot this season. Kinda silly to try to pin it down that much. Basically means they don't have a clue what will happen when so they try and throw it all in there... :roll:



NOAA could have just said between 9PM and 4AM there's a 60% chance of the some slurpee like precipitation happening


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## ajl50 (Dec 21, 2007)

After this storm it looks like a quiet few days then the next system will approach on thurs/friday. Again who knows about this track but models are again taking up into the lakes placing us in the warm sector. 
I hope this doesn't come true but luckily in this active weather pattern very few forecasts hold true eight days out.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 21, 2007)

It looks like rain on Sunday all the way up to the Canadian border..than a quick cold front to freeze everything solid..enjoy the next few days and then sharpen those edges,,,typical eastern ski conditions are returning for the Holidays,,uke:


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## Angus (Dec 21, 2007)

this was posted at http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/

Ahead of this system, southerly winds will strengthen Saturday night, bringing milder air across New England on Sunday.  As clouds thicken with increasing moisture Sunday morning, rain will move in from west to east and a period of steady rain is expected with a mild southerly wind Sunday afternoon, with raindrops the likely precipitation type all the way into Northern New England.  Nonetheless, most of our snowpack can handle the hit from the snow, and for most this will not jeopardize the chance for a White Christmas nor the ski conditions for the holiday week.  A brief shot of cool air is expected to follow before another moderation the middle to end of next week.

Farther down the line, a stormy pattern looks as though it may try to return to New England starting at the end of next week - perhaps as a warmer and somewhat wet storm - then continuing into the following week with increasing wintry precipitation.

Matt


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## loafer89 (Dec 21, 2007)

I am trying to decide if I should make a run for Sunday River tonight for one day of skiing tomorrow before the rain hits. It's an awful lot of driving for one day out on the mountain.

Option b is a day trip to Ragged or Tenney, never been to either one.


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## hammer (Dec 22, 2007)

Any updates on the timing of the NCP? I'd like to head out tomorrow to beat the wet weather but I'd rather not make the trip for just a few hours of skiing...


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## loafer89 (Dec 23, 2007)

Looks like another storm with a similar track to this one will strike New England next weekend.


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## Greg (Dec 23, 2007)

loafer89 said:


> Looks like another storm with a similar track to this one will strike New England next weekend.



This event sucks, big time. But next weekend is a million years away as far as I'm concerned.


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## JD (Dec 23, 2007)

Anyone else kayak?


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## billski (Dec 23, 2007)

loafer89 said:


> Looks like another storm with a similar track to this one will strike New England next weekend.



Shame on you loafer!  Succumbing to LRF's!  You have gone over to the dark side:sad:


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## billski (Dec 23, 2007)

JD said:


> Anyone else kayak?


What's that?  That word's not in my vocabulary until April, maybe May..
boy, this dark side force is getting harder to combat by the hour!

What did you offer Ullr today????:-?


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## JD (Dec 24, 2007)

Actually, I delamed some atomic Powder Pluses.  The first step in reversing the camber.  The rain is as expected.  Collective bad karma for the ski areas hoeing out to flat landers while blacking out the true and faithful Ullr worshipers.  Happens evey year...THEY come, and it rains.  Don't worry, when they leave, it will snow again.


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## Harvey (Dec 25, 2007)

*flatlanders*

If you use lift service, don't slam the Flatlanders.  Those millions weren't spent to serve a few locals midweek.


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## snoseek (Dec 25, 2007)

harvey44 said:


> If you use lift service, don't slam the Flatlanders.  Those millions weren't spent to serve a few locals midweek.



Not everyone wants millions spent in lifts.:smash:


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## Harvey (Dec 25, 2007)

That's why I said "if."  If you don't use lifts you see VERY few flatlanders and have nothing to worry about.


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## snoseek (Dec 25, 2007)

harvey44 said:


> That's why I said "if."  If you don't use lifts you see VERY few flatlanders and have nothing to worry about.



I use lifts, just don't really care for all the problems that come with  a high lift to acerage ratio.


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## billski (Dec 25, 2007)

harvey44 said:


> If you use lift service, don't slam the Flatlanders. Those millions weren't spent to serve a few locals midweek.


 
I actually think JD was being facetious and joking.  I am sure every resort in the east is working OT to make the mountains as family friendly as possible.  For all of us, our kids our out of school, for many of us, it may be our only vacation time.  Everyone deserves the best they can get.  Just over xmas dinner tonight the family was figuring out which day we should go - it's not a matter of waiting - there is a narrow opportunity for us to be together as a family.

For the Ullr worshipers who choose to be fussy, their midweek days will come.  While I love powder, the years have taught me to seize every opportunity, big and small, families, vacations, holidays, powder days, frozen and on and on.  Sometimes, just being out of doors is the best part.  I'm sure you all recall the days of hiking in a downpour, we never complained, tried to make light of it and enjoy the out of doors nonetheless.

Flatlanders and hill folk alike will probably have a better than usual week, because many will stay away, making it easier on us, but harder ($) on the resorts.

Interesting, Stowe is speaking of packed powder, I guess they got several inches last night.

Get out and have fun.  that's all that counts! :flag:


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## Harvey (Dec 25, 2007)

snoseek said:


> I use lifts, just don't really care for all the problems that come with  a high lift to acerage ratio.




No argument from me on that.  Don't want no HSQ or big parking lots.


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## JD (Dec 26, 2007)

harvey44 said:


> If you use lift service, don't slam the Flatlanders.  Those millions weren't spent to serve a few locals midweek.



I don't.  
Tourons suck.
Neuvorichuppermiddleclassbighatnocattlewoudn'tknowgoodfoodandwineiftheychokedonithummerdrivingfurlinedbootwearingneoncladgapers.
please go home.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 26, 2007)

I'm back at work but when I get out late this afternoon..I'm heading up to Blue mountain.  They had a decent night of snowmaking and temperatures should warm up to around 40 degrees.  I plan on wearing a fanny pack, rocking my red ski tote, and a neon headband to blend in with the Gapers.  Luckily crowds start to thin out for the night session and there aren't any school ski clubs up because there's no school.  It should be interesting with both a 6-pack and a quad running essentially side by side..human slalom course???  The bumps might be my refuge,,


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 26, 2007)

JD said:


> I don't.
> Tourons suck.
> Neuvorichuppermiddleclassbighatnocattlewoudn'tknowgoodfoodandwineiftheychokedonithummerdrivingfurlinedbootwearingneoncladgapers.
> please go home.



Gapers ski at Stowe?  I thought it was only hardcore bark eating granola in the beard Pontoon wearing backcountry wizards..lol


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## billski (Dec 27, 2007)

Raining and sleet here in the Boston Badlands (suburbs), 7am Thursday 12/27


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## loafer89 (Dec 27, 2007)

We had sleet, rain and a touch of light freezing rain overnight. Thankfully the temperature never dropped below freezing.


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## ccskier (Dec 27, 2007)

Snowing up here at JAy, started about 1/2 ago.  Possible 6'' by tomorrow.  Skied yesterday and this morning, not as bead as I thought it wold have been due to the dmaging rain.


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