# Cold Start to November?



## Greg (Oct 26, 2009)

Looks promising:


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## sLoPeS (Oct 27, 2009)

yea, but the 15 day for here just changed....

http://www.accuweather.com/us/vt/ki...tner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipchg=1&metric=0

it was 30s/teens and snow as of yesterday.

:uzi: [warmer weather]


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## Greg (Oct 27, 2009)

sLoPeS said:


> yea, but the 15 day for here just changed....
> 
> http://www.accuweather.com/us/vt/ki...tner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipchg=1&metric=0
> 
> ...



Oh, yuck. Definitely going in the wrong direction in a big way there. WTF?


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## Puck it (Oct 27, 2009)

Sucks!!!!!!!!


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## Johnskiismore (Oct 27, 2009)

Booooooooooo


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## Puck it (Oct 27, 2009)

Weather.com is still showing cold for the 11/2 and beyond in there 10 day forecast.

Lows are below freezing.  

You know it is doing this because I booked the trip to Killington for Thanksgiving.

I apologize to everyone.  It is my fault.


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## KingM (Oct 27, 2009)

On a related subject, what's the earliest snow that has a chance of building the base? I mean, other than the excitement of looking out the window and seeing snow in October, this is obviously going to melt off long before the resort opens. But how about early November snow? I know it usually melts off, but does it ever stick around at the higher elevations?


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## Greg (Oct 29, 2009)

Greg said:


> Looks promising:



This is bullshit. How the hell did that image flop from dark blue to dark orange in 3 days?


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## RootDKJ (Oct 29, 2009)

That sucks.


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## billski (Oct 29, 2009)

Greg said:


> This is bullshit. How the hell did that image flop from dark blue to dark orange in 3 days?



that's what weatherman do.  can you get away with that on your job?:???:


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## 4aprice (Oct 31, 2009)

On the bright side I was reading a message on Easternuswx.com that said we have 3 weeks to get our fall chores done before the onset of winter.  That would line up very nicely with a Thanksgiving start.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## riverc0il (Oct 31, 2009)

4aprice said:


> On the bright side I was reading a message on Easternuswx.com that said we have 3 weeks to get our fall chores done before the onset of winter.


I am not seeing the bright side here... Thanksgiving is the last acceptable date for the season to seriously get started. A Thanksgiving start means epic early season fail in my book. Though three weekends of operations at the River is not too shabby all things considered. 

Here is what I think: I have seen some sick sick sick early season dumps turn into lack luster seasons. Powderfreak was fond of saying that mother nature loves her averages and I would rather those averages get hit with snow that counts towards base building rather than a few early season larks. Though if it snows, I am there for sure and a foot of fresh in October or November is fine by me if I can ski it! Just seems like it raises expectations too high, too soon.


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## billski (Nov 1, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> I am not seeing the bright side here... Thanksgiving is the last acceptable date for the season to seriously get started. A Thanksgiving start means epic early season fail in my book. Though three weekends of operations at the River is not too shabby all things considered.
> 
> Here is what I think: I have seen some sick sick sick early season dumps turn into lack luster seasons. Powderfreak was fond of saying that mother nature loves her averages and I would rather those averages get hit with snow that counts towards base building rather than a few early season larks. Though if it snows, I am there for sure and a foot of fresh in October or November is fine by me if I can ski it! Just seems like it raises expectations too high, too soon.


  +1 .  I am hoping for some base building while I'm out raking leaves.


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## KingM (Nov 1, 2009)

Well, it doesn't seem like a cold start, but it feels seasonal cool and damp out there. We might get some snow showers later in the week.

Has anyone seen any recent seasonal forecasts from the usual skiing blogs? Seems like everyone is quiet.


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## billski (Nov 1, 2009)

KingM said:


> Well, it doesn't seem like a cold start, but it feels seasonal cool and damp out there. We might get some snow showers later in the week.
> 
> Has anyone seen any recent seasonal forecasts from the usual skiing blogs? Seems like everyone is quiet.


Not so much.

NWS
THU/FRI/SAT...MODELS DIFFER ON AMPLITUDE OF NEXT SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SLATED FORTHU-FRI AND SAT. HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH IMPULSE AND THELACK OF PHASING SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR QPF EVENTS. ATMOSPHERE A BITCOLDER LATER IN THE WEEK...SO RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE MIXED WITH SOMESNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.


BTV:.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 243 PM EDT SATURDAY...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM THEPREVIOUS FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGIONDURING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO ALLSNOW AS THEY TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. THOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING IN THE NEK AND THE MTNS.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY. FROMWEDNESDAY ONWARD UPPER FLOW BECOMES GENERALLY ZONAL...WITH SERIESOF FAST MOVING VORT MAXES IN THE WESTERLIES...AND NEARLYSTATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. ATTHESE LONGER TIME RANGES THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURESDIFFICULT TO RESOLVE...SO MAINTAINED BROAD BRUSH AND LOWCONFIDENCE CHANCE POPS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. PRECIP CHANCES TAPEROFF TO THE SOUTH. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPWOULD BE ALL LIQUID...BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS OVERNIGHT MAY HAVESNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN, LOWCONFIDENCE, AND ABSENT ANY WELL ORGANIZED FORCING WOULD NOT EXPECTMUCH TO ANY ACCUMULATION. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND WE COULD BEIN FOR A BRIEF WARM UP SAT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.


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## billski (Nov 2, 2009)

Nice to see NWS is forecasting chance of snow for most of the region, second half of this week.

Let the base-building begin! Plueeeze!


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## KingM (Nov 2, 2009)

From the MRV:



> *  Today: Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 49F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph.
> * Tonight: Partly cloudy. Low 32F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.
> * Tomorrow: Overcast with showers at times. High around 45F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
> * Tomorrow night: Rain and snow showers in the evening. A snow shower or two late - otherwise, mostly cloudy. Low 27F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precip 30%.
> ...


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## billski (Nov 2, 2009)

KingM said:


> From the MRV:


Let me know when you have enough ground cover to make a snowman, and I'll be right up!


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## 4aprice (Nov 2, 2009)

KingM said:


> Has anyone seen any recent seasonal forecasts from the usual skiing blogs? Seems like everyone is quiet.



I don't know about the skiing blogs but I've seen plenty of blogs on the weather sites and most are pointing toward a pretty healthy winter.  We had a cool summer and fall in my opinion has been pretty normal with some spikes of heat but mostly cool.  The leaves are 95% off the trees here in North Jersey which seems a tad earlier then usual.  I'm still up on a good winter and think the back side will be quite active storm wise.  

I guess I not as gung hoe as some for early season skiing.  I think in 44 years of skiing I've only skied before Thanksgiving once.  Even when I lived in Northern New England I never skied before Thanksgiving and my father said back in his day they never skied till after Christmas.  The WROD has little appeal to me (and my wallet).  Technology has gotten better and better and we've gotten longer and longer seasons.   I like to pile up days on the back end of the season.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Marc (Nov 2, 2009)

Greg said:


> This is bullshit. How the hell did that image flop from dark blue to dark orange in 3 days?



Changed again.

You know what Yogi Berra says... it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.


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## Greg (Nov 2, 2009)

Marc said:


> Changed again.
> 
> You know what Yogi Berra says... it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.



I figured as much. I'll take "normal" at this point.


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## Marc (Nov 2, 2009)

Greg said:


> I figured as much. I'll take "normal" at this point.



I think they oughta change their terminology on that map to average, above average and below average.

Normal implies that there are normal temperatures ever... which we all know from living in New England is not true.  There is an average, but we rarely see the average.


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## wa-loaf (Nov 2, 2009)

Talking about snow Thursday night and Friday morning.


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## KingM (Nov 3, 2009)

Marc said:


> Normal implies that there are normal temperatures ever... which we all know from living in New England is not true.  There is an average, but we rarely see the average.



I agree.

I was thinking the other day that it would be great to see a winter with 10 degree below average temps and then I realized that probably wouldn't help us much. Most of the time when we get hammered with rain, the temps jump from 15 degrees to 50 degrees and then swing back down into the 20s. If we lowered that 10 degrees, we'd be even colder on the front end, still rise into the rain category, and then drop back down again. Net result would be colder but with the same weather.


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## riverc0il (Nov 3, 2009)

My new aggregator is paying dividends already. Latest from Matt Noyes suggests pretty cold this week with possible snows in NoNH/ME later this week. SWEET!!!

http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_englan...-wednesdaywill-continue-into-the-weekend.html


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## RootDKJ (Nov 3, 2009)

Local News12-NJ weatherman: "There's going to be a dive in the jet stream that's going to allow the cold weather from Canada move in."  

Me: *BRING IT!!!*


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## 4aprice (Nov 6, 2009)

4aprice said:


> On the bright side I was reading a message on Easternuswx.com that said we have 3 weeks to get our fall chores done before the onset of winter.  That would line up very nicely with a Thanksgiving start.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



This was written last week and from what I'm seeing and reading is still on schedule.  Next week appears to be warm with some tropical activity in the GOM.  After that I'm hearing it could be "release the hounds".  I still got some leaves to get rid of so I accept the warmth this weekend and get ready to start the season around T day.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Harvey (Nov 8, 2009)

I'm not much of a weatherman really.  If it looks bleak I'm pretty quiet.  And I'm always looking for a rationale that will turn the slightest sliver of hope into the next Valentine's Day.

The image below is WAY long term.  But it's weather porn, and I've had a helluva time finding any recently.  

It's NWS's 3 month T2M...how temps will compare to the long term average:







It seems like the more reasonable 10 and 14 day temp forecasts are starting to come around too.  Let's hope.

Sorry about the image size. Every pic I try to post either comes out as a postage stamp, or huge.


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## tarponhead (Nov 9, 2009)

harvey44 said:


> Sorry about the image size. Every pic I try to post either comes out as a postage stamp, or huge.



Please don't be. This is going on my office wall!

Thank you for the stoke!

PS. what are the units?


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## tarponhead (Nov 9, 2009)

harvey44 said:


> It's NWS's 3 month T2M...how temps will compare to the long term average:



and noaa has the long term precipitation is supposed to be below normal too?


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## Harvey (Nov 9, 2009)

tarponhead said:


> Please don't be. This is going on my office wall!
> 
> Thank you for the stoke!
> 
> PS. what are the units?



Nice... a fellow stokemeister.  

The units are percentage of probability.  The darker the blue the more likely the area will be colder than average.  Could be as little as 1.5 degrees colder. But at this point average or anything colder is gold as far as I'm concerned.

It looks like the way things get posted here (as links) that that graphic will continue to update.

There are a few braves souls calling for a shift to cold after the 17th.  

Hope so.  This zonal flow is for the birds.


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## riverc0il (Nov 10, 2009)

I just went running yesterday in shorts and a short sleeve t-shirt. Three weeks ago, we had our heat on. Something is not right. Definitely not a cold start to November


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## bvibert (Nov 10, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> Something is not right. Definitely not a cold start to November



Agreed, it's starting to look bleak for November...


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## wa-loaf (Nov 10, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> Something is not right. Definitely not a cold start to November





bvibert said:


> Agreed, it's starting to look bleak for November...



If we are getting the warm-up out of the way now, that's fine with me.


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## bvibert (Nov 10, 2009)

wa-loaf said:


> If we are getting the warm-up out of the way now, that's fine with me.



If this is the only warm-up we get I'll be happy...  I'm not that optimistic though I guess.


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## Greg (Nov 10, 2009)

Winter's Cancelled.


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## severine (Nov 10, 2009)

Greg said:


> Winter's Cancelled.



The 15-day forecast on Sundown's fan site certainly is looking that way...at least, for this month.

Boo!

2 years ago, Sundown opened ~ Dec 8th (that weekend but I forget if that's the exact day). I was hoping for an earlier start than that this year, especially since we have childcare taken care of for Black Friday.

C'mon, Ullr!!! Bring it on!!!!!!


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## Greg (Nov 10, 2009)

severine said:


> The 15-day forecast on Sundown's fan site certainly is looking that way...at least, for this month.
> 
> Boo!
> 
> ...



Not a good forecast, but not horrible. In 2004 Sundown didn't open until the *17th of December*. Let's hope we don't have a repeat of that year. Anytime early December is typical. Last year was an anomaly.


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## severine (Nov 10, 2009)

Greg said:


> Not a good forecast, but not horrible. In 2004 Sundown didn't open until the *17th of December*. Let's hope we don't have a repeat of that year. Anytime early December is typical. Last year was an anomaly.


I know... but I was hopeful! If we don't get an early start, then we better get a late season!


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## Harvey (Nov 10, 2009)

There have been a few mets out there talking about cold, but NWS has been silent, until now.  It's not much, but it is something:

LONG TERM...from NWS ALY

THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE DIFFICULT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH...RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FORECAST PERIOD...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 1500 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.


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## The Sneak (Nov 10, 2009)

Remember how 06 started? ugh. :uzi:: puke:


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## Greg (Nov 10, 2009)

It's still only mid-November. That works for me. I only usually get one day of skiing in November. As of now, Killington is the plan on the 20th.


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## wa-loaf (Nov 10, 2009)

The Sneak said:


> Remember how 06 started? ugh. :uzi:: puke:



Yea, but remember the finish. St Paddy's day, Valentine's Day, 100 inches in April at the Loaf ...


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## 4aprice (Nov 10, 2009)

Greg said:


> It's still only mid-November. That works for me. I only usually get one day of skiing in November. As of now, Killington is the plan on the 20th.



Greg

See my post #27.  I believe that by the T-day the guns of November will be roaring.  

The last 2 seasons featured a La Nina.  From my experience La Nina conditions favor a colder regime at the beginning of winter and dryer as the winter goes on.  Last season was a perfect example of that ending with what I considered a dismal March.  We are supposedly now in an El Nino which is a different beast.  My experience is El Nino's produce a better back end of the season and are favorable for Noreasters. 

Herb Steven's forecast which somebody posted looks really good to me.  Some of his analogs are impressive.  76/77 I lived in Northen New England and that was an awsome season.   I wouldn't be surprised to see a slower start this year with a much better late winter/early spring.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Glenn (Nov 11, 2009)

As long as I'm making turns on Black Friday...I'll be happy.


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## Harvey (Nov 12, 2009)

Glenn said:


> As long as I'm making turns on Black Friday...I'll be happy.



I can't tell...is the FIS forecast a total bummer or does it offer a glimmer of hope?

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/thanksgiving-weekend-giving-thanks-or-hiking-for-mank/


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## billski (Nov 13, 2009)

harvey44 said:


> I can't tell...is the FIS forecast a total bummer or does it offer a glimmer of hope?
> 
> http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/thanksgiving-weekend-giving-thanks-or-hiking-for-mank/



Scott commented earlier this week on skiVT-L:

"Mother Nature loves her averages and we are paying for a below normal October right now."


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## Glenn (Nov 13, 2009)

billski said:


> Scott commented earlier this week on skiVT-L:
> 
> "Mother Nature loves her averages and we are paying for a below normal October right now."



Man, ain't that the truth. :evil:  It's going to be in the 60's Sunday. BLAH!


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## Harvey (Nov 15, 2009)

This is borderline offtopic for this thread as we are almost talking December.

But I'll give it a reserved ... woohoo!

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/11/nws-jumps-on-band-wagon.html


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## riverc0il (Nov 15, 2009)

harvey44 said:


> This is borderline offtopic for this thread as we are almost talking December.
> 
> But I'll give it a reserved ... woohoo!
> 
> http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/11/nws-jumps-on-band-wagon.html



Off topic or not, this thread needed something positive or else it should be completely removed from the discussion board. Given how November has gone, even seeing the topic of this thread pop up on the "new posts" lists was demoralizing!


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## 2knees (Nov 15, 2009)

someone posted a long term outlook from Herb Stevens who expected a pattern shift beginning around the 20th or so.  hopefully this all comes to fruition but I'm still not gonna lose my lunch over a crappy november.


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## 4aprice (Nov 16, 2009)

2knees said:


> I'm still not gonna lose my lunch over a crappy november.



Exactly.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Harvey (Nov 16, 2009)

Riv is right...this thread title is loaded with cruel irony.  

At least Greg put a question mark on the original post.  And if you look at the OP at this moment - it's updated back to the point where the image matches what he wrote.

Sorry still haven't figured how to post images. Black Friday may be tough sledding but the evidence is mounting that better times are ahead:

http://harvey44.blogspot.com/2009/11/bring-it-accuweather-bring-it.html


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## billski (Nov 16, 2009)

I have noticed one thing for certain.  When the weather gets crappy and no change is on the horizon, Scott/powderfreak stops posting.  His last post was 11/11.  http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weather/


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## Glenn (Nov 17, 2009)

Things are looking better this week in Southern VT. Daytime temps are going to be cool...with night temps in the upper 20's. If we can stay in this pattern until next week, we should, in theory, be all set for a good Thanksgiving weekend.


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## hammer (Nov 17, 2009)

billski said:


> I have noticed one thing for certain.  When the weather gets crappy and no change is on the horizon, Scott/powderfreak stops posting.  His last post was *10/11*.  http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weather/


Corrected for you...last post was over a month ago. :-?


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## powderfreak (Nov 17, 2009)

hammer said:


> Corrected for you...last post was over a month ago. :-?



Sorry 'bout that guys... I definitely have a tendency to not want to write much when the weather gets stagnant.  I'll also start taking days off without looking at anything weather related and that's a big thing for me.  I was starting to get excited for winter in October but then this November has been about as boring as they come wx wise... but winter's coming.  

From what I've seen this fall my gut says December is a roller coaster ride (transient periods of cold/snow, then thaw, repeat) but then the heart of winter during January and February is white gold.

-Scott


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## Harvey (Nov 17, 2009)

powderfreak said:


> From what I've seen this fall my gut says December is a roller coaster ride (transient periods of cold/snow, then thaw, repeat) but then the heart of winter during January and February is white gold.
> 
> -Scott



With permission - I'm going to quote you on that.


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## billski (Nov 18, 2009)

powderfreak said:


> Sorry 'bout that guys... I definitely have a tendency to not want to write much when the weather gets stagnant.  I'll also start taking days off without looking at anything weather related and that's a big thing for me.  I was starting to get excited for winter in October but then this November has been about as boring as they come wx wise... but winter's coming.
> 
> -Scott



I'm with you on that one all the way Scott.     I have no interest in rain or sun forecasts.  When that happens, I just go out and do warm weather stuff.

Algorithm:
IF (Scott doe NOT post), THEN Queue the domestic duties, ELSE, double check the ski gear, vouchers, clear calendar.  :lol:


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## arik (Nov 18, 2009)

Didn't 07-08 start really warm and dry and then turn out very snowy and awesome?

I remember doing the downloading thing on Canyon chair at Mount Snow thanksgiving 07 (or was it 06?).


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## severine (Nov 18, 2009)

arik said:


> Didn't 07-08 start really warm and dry and then turn out very snowy and awesome?
> 
> I remember doing the downloading thing on Canyon chair at Mount Snow thanksgiving 07 (or was it 06?).


That was the year the local ski area opened ~ Dec 8th and Christmas week was pretty rough even. I don't recall much of the season after Feb 15th due to my knee injury, but the snowstorm at A-Basin over Mother's Day weekend that year was great.


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## 2knees (Nov 18, 2009)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

the 6-10 kinda sucks but i like the sound of the 8-14 day outlook.  This is in agreement with what I read on accuweather and therefor immediately went looking for a more credible source.


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## Greg (Nov 18, 2009)

2knees said:


> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html
> 
> the 6-10 kinda sucks but i like the sound of the 8-14 day outlook.  This is in agreement with what I read on accuweather and therefor immediately went looking for a more credible source.



Cool! It'll be interesting to see if their 7 day forecast begins to indicate this shift...


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## billski (Nov 18, 2009)

2knees said:


> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html
> 
> the 6-10 kinda sucks but i like the sound of the 8-14 day outlook.  This is in agreement with what I read on accuweather and therefor immediately went looking for a more credible source.



Roger Hill sees a similar trend.
In most cases NWS is to be taken seriously.  Anything out of BTV-NWS (burlington) is good.  

In all cases, this is nearly 10 days out, the world could change by then, and even the most credible of forecasters will tell you such.


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## 2knees (Nov 18, 2009)

billski said:


> In all cases, this is nearly 10 days out, the world could change by then, and even the most credible of forecasters will tell you such.




really?  i thought these longer range forcasts were 100% accurate 100% of the time.


i'll take the hope at this point. and there are very interesting reads on easternuswx that tend to agree with this scenario.  some more then others.


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## severine (Nov 18, 2009)

2knees said:


> really?  i thought these longer range forcasts were 100% accurate 100% of the time.
> 
> 
> i'll take the hope at this point. and there are very interesting reads on easternuswx that tend to agree with this scenario.  some more then others.



The more sources that agree with a cool down Thanksgiving on, the happier I am, even if it isn't 100% accurate. 

Too late for CT skiing T-Day weekend, but hopefully they'll be set up for the following weekend.


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## billski (Nov 18, 2009)

2knees said:


> really?  i thought these longer range forcasts were 100% accurate 100% of the time.
> 
> 
> i'll take the hope at this point. and there are very interesting reads on easternuswx that tend to agree with this scenario.  some more then others.


  I wasn't talking to you.  there are 9,999 lurkers who believe otherwise :lol:


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## 2knees (Nov 18, 2009)

t-day skiing in ct is a very rare occurence at best.  I wouldnt get to worried about that.  i'm more concerned with when there will start to be more areas open up north and when there will be some more serious terrain roll-outs.  i know for a fact i'm not going to be skiing nearly as much this year so i'm not wasting any days skiing 5 hardpack groomers at killington for $983 a ticket........


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## Greg (Nov 18, 2009)

2knees said:


> i'll take the hope at this point. and there are very interesting reads on easternuswx that tend to agree with this scenario.  some more then others.



Some of the discussion there will make your head spin. Still good stuff though.



severine said:


> Too late for CT skiing T-Day weekend, but hopefully they'll be set up for the following weekend.





2knees said:


> t-day skiing in ct is a very rare occurence at best.  I wouldnt get to worried about that.  i'm more concerned with when there will start to be more areas open up north and when there will be some more serious terrain roll-outs.



Last year was Sundown's earliest opening (November 28)  and I believe the first year there has ever been skiing in CT on Thanksgiving Weekend (outside of maybe Woodbury) and that was only because Thanksgiving was later than normal, like this year. But maybe Mohawk opened on Thanksgiving weekend one year that I just don't remember.

Even if the Accuweather forecast is right, I don't think there is enough time to get a November opening this year, but who knows. Maybe that Sunday is a possibility. If not, I'll be heading north to Vermont, or west to Hunter.


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## severine (Nov 18, 2009)

2knees said:


> t-day skiing in ct is a very rare occurence at best.  I wouldnt get to worried about that.  i'm more concerned with when there will start to be more areas open up north and when there will be some more serious terrain roll-outs.  i know for a fact i'm not going to be skiing nearly as much this year so i'm not wasting any days skiing 5 hardpack groomers at killington for $983 a ticket........


I'll have little opportunity to get out of state, so it does matter to me (and I had babysitting lined up for Black Friday!). But I hear ya.


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## hammer (Nov 18, 2009)

severine said:


> Too late for CT skiing T-Day weekend


Unfortunately, I think it's too late for many smaller areas in Southern to Central NE, including those that normally open up on T-Day weekend...:sad:


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## severine (Nov 18, 2009)

Greg said:


> Last year was Sundown's earliest opening (November 28)  and I believe the first year there has ever been skiing in CT on Thanksgiving Weekend (outside of maybe Woodbury) and that was only because Thanksgiving was later than normal, like this year. But maybe Mohawk opened on Thanksgiving weekend one year that I just don't remember.
> 
> Even if the Accuweather forecast is right, I don't think there is enough time to get a November opening this year, but who knows. Maybe that Sunday is a possibility. If not, I'll be heading north to Vermont, or west to Hunter.


I prefer my short-term memory.  I know it was their earliest opening, but it's aimed for every year, from what I understand. Seemed like the cold in Oct was an indicator of a good trend to come this winter, which is what makes it disappointing this year. But it is what it is and I'll be happy when they open, regardless of when that is.


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## 2knees (Nov 18, 2009)

Greg said:


> Some of the discussion there will make your head spin. Still good stuff though.




no doubt about that.  i dont understand at least half of what is said but you get the general idea of what is going on.


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## 2knees (Nov 18, 2009)

billski said:


> I wasn't talking to you.  there are 9,999 lurkers who believe otherwise :lol:



i shouldve used an emoticon but i really thought you would catch the sarcasm without it.  i'm a little grumpy right now.  this weather is killing my business too.


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## andrec10 (Nov 18, 2009)

*This just in from Accuweather...*

Cold Blast Coming for Thanksgiving for Eastern States
11/18/2009 10:01 AM
A major change to colder weather will sweep across the eastern two-thirds of the nation during the week of Thanksgiving, just in time for millions of Americans to hit the road

By Alex Sosnowski
AccuWeather.com
A major change to colder weather will sweep across the eastern two-thirds of the nation during the week of Thanksgiving, just in time for millions of Americans to hit the roadways and skies to be with family and friends.

While warmer air will first build in the western third of the nation, a blast of cold air will roll southeastward from the northern Plains and will sweep into the East and South.

The push of Arctic air will have shock value in that it would follow what has been an unusually warm first half of November for much of the nation.

In addition, the arrival of the cold air will spin up a storm that will target the Plains and Great Lakes.

Rain is in store for the front end of the storm. However, on the northwest flank of the storm and in its wake, enough snow will fall to hamper travel in some areas.

Locations most likely to have snow for most of the storm will be parts of Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

The action of cold air passing over the warm waters of the Great Lakes will create lake-effect snow. Wherever these bands of snow set up downwind of the lakes, travel could be slowed to a standstill.


It appears the lake-effect event will be ramping up on Wednesday and will spread eastward into the northern Appalachians Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.

The Thanksgiving week cold push could be a precursor to what lies ahead for December. AccuWeather.com Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi is expecting a colder-than-average December for the eastern two-thirds of the nation.

The details of the storm and the magnitude of the cold air will unfold over the next few days, so be sure to keep checking in.


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