# Hurricane Bill: Threat to NE?



## thetrailboss (Aug 18, 2009)

I heard on the radio this morning discussion of *our first hurricane* for the season, and apparently it may come along the east coast.  

Thoughts?  Any updates?


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## billski (Aug 18, 2009)

I am always a threat


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## St. Bear (Aug 18, 2009)

I'm supposed to go on a cruise out of Portland, ME on Saturday.  Yippee!


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## billski (Aug 18, 2009)

*Jet Steam*

Looks like the jet stream ain't gonna interfere with this baby!


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## billski (Aug 18, 2009)

St. Bear said:


> I'm supposed to go on a cruise out of Portland, ME on Saturday. Yippee!


  I'll be on the NJ beach next week.  Really had hoped to swim in some new medical waste     I just love those rip tides!


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## St. Bear (Aug 18, 2009)

billski said:


> I'll be on the NJ beach next week.  Really had hoped to swim in some new medical waste     I just love those rip tides!



I've lived in NJ for 5 years, and I've never made it to the Jersey Shore, yet in the same time period I've been to the Cape three times.

It's funny how people are incredulous when I tell them that, but at this rate I don't want to go just out of principal.


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## WJenness (Aug 18, 2009)

It'll be interesting to watch...

Early storms seem to be the ones that come up this way...

Bob & Gloria immediately come to mind.

-w


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## billski (Aug 18, 2009)

St. Bear said:


> I've lived in NJ for 5 years, and I've never made it to the Jersey Shore, yet in the same time period I've been to the Cape three times.
> 
> It's funny how people are incredulous when I tell them that, but at this rate I don't want to go just out of principal.


 
There is nothing more cozy than sharing the beach with 20,000 of your closest friends, or looking out your cottage window and watching the card game in the cottage next to yours.


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## Puck it (Aug 18, 2009)

WJenness said:


> It'll be interesting to watch...
> 
> Early storms seem to be the ones that come up this way...
> 
> ...


 

I was on Nantucket when Floyd hit.  It is fun taking the SUV out after that on the dirt roads.  I had water come over the hood in one puddle.


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## WJenness (Aug 18, 2009)

Puck it said:


> I was on Nantucket when Floyd hit.  It is fun taking the SUV out after that on the dirt roads.  I had water come over the hood in one puddle.



Oh yes, Floyd... I remember that one too... I was working an 8 hour shift in my friend's mother's dry cleaning shop, I think we had more power interruptions than customers that day...

-w


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## Johnskiismore (Aug 18, 2009)

Looks like we'll be heading for the coast on Sunday if it hits!


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## Glenn (Aug 18, 2009)

Maybe it's time to get that Stihl sooner than later....


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## billski (Aug 18, 2009)

Johnskiismore said:


> Looks like we'll be heading for the coast on Sunday if it hits!


  Surf's up!


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## marcski (Aug 18, 2009)

I don't think the US is in the "cone of danger" for this one. 

I always think Get Smart when I hear that term.


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## wa-loaf (Aug 18, 2009)

WJenness said:


> It'll be interesting to watch...
> 
> Early storms seem to be the ones that come up this way...
> 
> ...



Bob was in August, but Gloria was the end of September.


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## WJenness (Aug 18, 2009)

wa-loaf said:


> Bob was in August, but Gloria was the end of September.



Ahh... I couldn't remember how active the hurricane season was that year... I remember that I had just gone back to school  (or started school... pretty sure it was 1st grade).

-w


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Aug 18, 2009)

I'm hoping we get a humdinger of a Hurricane..I love watching weathers destruction..


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## drjeff (Aug 18, 2009)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> I'm hoping we get a humdinger of a Hurricane..I love watching weathers destruction..



Best bet then GSS is grab a last minute flight to Bermuda on Thursday.

Good waves and a weekend of rip currents up + down the East Coast


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## Zand (Aug 18, 2009)

We're due. 

Bring it on!


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## billski (Aug 18, 2009)

Glenn said:


> Maybe it's time to get that Stihl sooner than later....


 
Marc hasn't weighed in on this one yet.  He must be out buying more 2-cycle oil...


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## billski (Aug 18, 2009)

This is one cool site
http://www.stormpulse.com/
The models all get mapped on a simple, easy to visualize map.
Looks like our landfall prognostications don't fair well by any model.
Wish there was something like this for winter storms.....


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## Johnskiismore (Aug 18, 2009)

That ia cool weather site!


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## riverc0il (Aug 18, 2009)

Some of you guys sound like you are rooting for a natural disaster to strike this region...







...then again, I root for blizzards. But at least I enjoy those. I can't see getting my kicks in a hurricane!


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## Glenn (Aug 19, 2009)

billski said:


> Marc hasn't weighed in on this one yet.  He must be out buying more 2-cycle oil...






Looks like this will head out to sea after all. Well, that's what the "computers" are showing now.


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## billski (Aug 19, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> Some of you guys sound like you are rooting for a natural disaster to strike this region...
> 
> 
> 
> ...then again, I root for blizzards. But at least I enjoy those. I can't see getting my kicks in a hurricane!


 
Good one!  That's the problem I have with computer communications; the non-verbals all get lost and the message gets scrambled.  I just bore easily, always looking for something to spice up life.  Have no interested in seeing lives at state or homes destroyed.


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## thetrailboss (Aug 19, 2009)

Glenn said:


> Looks like this will head out to sea after all. Well, that's what the "computers" are showing now.



That's interesting...Roger Hill is saying that there are different models including the Canadian model (which is good for the tropics he says) which has the hurricane coming within 100 miles of Cape Cod.


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## deadheadskier (Aug 19, 2009)

thetrailboss said:


> That's interesting...Roger Hill is saying that there are different models including the Canadian model (which is good for the tropics he says) which has the hurricane coming within 100 miles of Cape Cod.



100 miles on that side of the storm west-northwest quadrant will register barely more than a large T storm on the Cape unless the thing is HUGE.  It'll probably kick up the surf for a day or two, but it shouldn't be a big deal.  I was less than 20 miles NW from the eye of where Charlie (cat 4 at landfall) hit in Florida and was like, "That's it?"  however, 20 miles south of the storm saw some fairly significant damage.


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## thetrailboss (Aug 19, 2009)

To be clear, the Canadian Model had it tracking 100 miles east of Cape Cod.  Not sure if that is referring to the eye of the storm or not.


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## deadheadskier (Aug 19, 2009)

thetrailboss said:


> To be clear, the Canadian Model had it tracking 100 miles east of Cape Cod.  Not sure if that is referring to the eye of the storm or not.



yep gotcha

with the storm tracking east, that puts the Cape in the West / Northwest quadrant, generally the safest side of a hurricane to be on.  I don't claim to be a meteorologist, but having lived through 3 hurricanes all within 75 miles or so of me in Florida during the summer of 2004; I watched a lot of TV :lol:   Well, at least while I had power.


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## billski (Aug 19, 2009)

thetrailboss said:


> That's interesting...Roger Hill is saying that there are different models including the Canadian model (which is good for the tropics he says) which has the hurricane coming within 100 miles of Cape Cod.



True, however, that model is way off from what all the other models are modeling.  Check out this page, http://www.stormpulse.com/ and click on the "Forecast Models" button (right side) - you can see all the model tracks at once.  It's the NOGAPS model that gets within 100 miles.


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## bobbutts (Aug 19, 2009)

Looks most likely to be out to sea, but Maine and Cape Cod are still in the game according to nhc 5 day forecast cone.  Stay tuned, very unlikely but not impossible that we'll be affacted.


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## billski (Aug 19, 2009)

bobbutts said:


> Looks most likely to be out to sea, but Maine and Cape Cod are still in the game according to nhc 5 day forecast cone.  Stay tuned, very unlikely but not impossible that we'll be affacted.



I don't think any forecaster is ready to throw in the towel yet.  There still poses a real threat to the coast.

The latest models bring it within 150 nautical miles of Boston and the consensus within 400 NM of Boston.  The NHC also notes: "
 NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5

Hurricane force winds extend out 80 miles and tropical force winds extend outwards 175 miles
 presently, primarily to the Northeast.

However, the big deflector is an imminent front:
"A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FORCING
BILL TO TURN NORTHWARD A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST
COAST. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH IN FACT HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN
TURNING BILL NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS."


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## drjeff (Aug 19, 2009)

About the only CERTAIN thing about Bill is the reports later this week about folks getting swept out by rip current at the beaches up and down the East coast


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Aug 19, 2009)

drjeff said:


> About the only CERTAIN thing about Bill is the reports later this week about folks getting swept out by rip current at the beaches up and down the East coast



one of my fears back when I used to go to the beach..I once went like two blocks in one..


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## drjeff (Aug 20, 2009)

I'm thinking that I might have to head down to the RI South Shore beaches on Sunday with my camera based on this estimate 






DEFINATELY NOT going in the water based on that!


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## Greg (Aug 20, 2009)

drjeff said:


> DEFINATELY NOT going in the water based on that!



Baby.


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## drjeff (Aug 20, 2009)

Greg said:


> Baby.



Yup, I'm more than likely going to be a wuss and somehow resist the temptation to do an epic body surfing face plant into the not so sandy bottom at East Matunick Beach in RI 

I'll have to limit my excitement to watching folks puke over the side of the Block Island Ferry (if it's even running) as it heads back into Point Judith  :lol:


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## RootDKJ (Aug 20, 2009)

drjeff said:


> I'm thinking that I might have to head down to the RI South Shore beaches on Sunday with my camera based on this estimate
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I might have to do the same at the Jersey Shore!


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Aug 20, 2009)

RootDKJ said:


> I might have to do the same at the Jersey Shore!



Gonna be some darn good boogie-boarding..

I'm sure the lifeguards won't let anybody in the water..it's a good thing alot of Jersey Shore towns dredged sand from the ocean to expand dunes and beaches cause this could be a humdinger..

I'm gonna buy more toilet paper and Milk..I'm 90 miles inland but you can never be too safe..


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## drjeff (Aug 20, 2009)

RootDKJ said:


> I might have to do the same at the Jersey Shore!



Here's Saturday's current estimates for 'ya Root - not too much difference Sat to Sun for the Jersey Shore per the current thoughts


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## RootDKJ (Aug 20, 2009)

drjeff said:


> Here's Saturday's current estimates for 'ya Root - not too much difference Sat to Sun for the Jersey Shore per the current thoughts


Grandparents are coming up on Sat to sample my famous Orion Ribs. Mrs Root has a "girls" night out in Avalon and won't be home until late Sunday, so sunday looks likes it's my best shot.  Currents look much better on Sat however.


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## hammer (Aug 21, 2009)

Latest east coast wave estimates for Sunday pulled off of weather.com...:-o


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## drjeff (Aug 21, 2009)

hammer said:


> Latest east coast wave estimates for Sunday pulled off of weather.com...:-o



The only "good thing" that I'm seeing about Bill and these waves and the general population is that Bill tends to be trending slightly closer to land, which means that the sh$tty weather (wind, heavy rain) will likely be over the coastal beach areas also, hence keeping some of the folks away from the massive power that these waves and riptides will bring.  Sunny weather would be more likely to get extra stupid people near and/or in the water to experience it and hence likely lead to more un needed dangerous work for the Coast Guard and/or local police + fire departments


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## billski (Aug 21, 2009)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> Gonna be some darn good boogie-boarding..
> 
> I'm sure the lifeguards won't let anybody in the water..it's a good thing alot of Jersey Shore towns dredged sand from the ocean to expand dunes and beaches cause this could be a humdinger..
> 
> I'm gonna buy more toilet paper and Milk..I'm 90 miles inland but you can never be too safe..


 
80% of all rescues are due to under currents, according to a national rescue report I saw last night.   I'll be at the NJS starting Tuesday to see what remains of the dunes....


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## hammer (Aug 21, 2009)

billski said:


> I'll be at the NJS starting Tuesday to see what remains of the dunes....


Where are you headed?


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## billski (Aug 21, 2009)

hammer said:


> Where are you headed?


 south seaside park. U down there or know of it?


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## hammer (Aug 21, 2009)

billski said:


> south seaside park. U down there or know of it?


I grew up on the mainland near LBI...spent a number of evenings in my teenage years on the boardwalk in Seaside Heights.

I never made it over to Island Beach State Park, but I heard a lot of good things about it...and it's right down the road from where you will be.  Enjoy.


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## billski (Aug 21, 2009)

hammer said:


> I grew up on the mainland near LBI...spent a number of evenings in my teenage years on the boardwalk in Seaside Heights.
> 
> I never made it over to Island Beach State Park, but I heard a lot of good things about it...and it's right down the road from where you will be. Enjoy.


 

LBI, party city, I  hear. :-o   I go to visit relatives, I'm not a beach or boardwalk guy.  First time on the boardwalk, I saw more losers in one night than I had my entire life before then.  Granted most of the folks are nice, the others it attract requires the heigths to what, quadruple their police force during the summer.  ick....

 After visiting for 25 years, I finally biked the length of IBSP last year.  Interesting, but too hot for me.  Went to Pine Barrens when I bored of the water and biked through the "woods" around there.  Saw some 4-legged critters.  But most important thing I learned - Pine Barrens is where all Mylar helium-filled party balloons go to die.  I thought they were kidding me, but I must have spied two dozen of them on my ride.

Not allowed on a bike or sailboat right now (big bummer), still a little wobbly and I can't risk another whack to the noggin.  Have to keep it safe till ski season.
Looks like I'll be practicing making frozen drinks a lot


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## wa-loaf (Aug 23, 2009)

http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2009/08/bill_spins_past.html

2 missing in Acadia after being swept from the rocks. I was there for a big storm years ago and you have to be nuts to get off the auto road when those waves are coming in up there.


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## deadheadskier (Aug 23, 2009)

Waves were in the 6 - 12 range today at Hampton.  Primary Beach was closed to swimming.  North Beach has no life guards and I went body boarding today.  

Bad timing on the tides unfortunately for it to be really off the hook.  The big big swells broke too far off shore for body/boogie boarders to enjoy, but the regular surfers were killing it. I bet tomorrow morning post low tide will still be great.


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## WJenness (Aug 24, 2009)

deadheadskier said:


> Waves were in the 6 - 12 range today at Hampton.  Primary Beach was closed to swimming.  North Beach has no life guards and I went body boarding today.
> 
> Bad timing on the tides unfortunately for it to be really off the hook.  The big big swells broke too far off shore for body/boogie boarders to enjoy, but the regular surfers were killing it. I bet tomorrow morning post low tide will still be great.



I stayed at a friend's house on the beach in Seabrook on Sat. night... The waves sounded really impressive during the early morning hours... unfortunately, I had to be somewhere to run a fencing tournament during the day on Sunday, so I didn't get to check out the waves for long in the morning.

-w


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## bigbog (Aug 28, 2009)

*Sunday morning(up here..)= outdoors..*

Looks like first half of Sunday...up above Moosehead, will be ok for a hike...


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## bigbog (Aug 29, 2009)

*...*



Puck it said:


> I was on Nantucket when Floyd hit.  It is fun taking the SUV out after that on the dirt roads.  I had water come over the hood in one puddle.


Aggressive treads with nice float(over land)...as long as you watch for flood stages and potential hazards, I love driving around to see what's going on following...  Pack the chainsaw...you never know who might need help..and when..


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