# Wednesday Clipper?



## Greg (Dec 17, 2007)

Forecasts are trending snowier for Wednesday. Perhaps some light accumulations?


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## bvibert (Dec 17, 2007)

Sounds good to me.  Where do I sign the petition to make it happen??


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## billski (Dec 17, 2007)

rack it up. a couple inches a day for the next five days sounds sweet to me. Friday is alpine geological research field trip day. We will study the effects of rapid altitude loss in a below-freezing environment


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## ajl50 (Dec 18, 2007)

Yea...we'll need it. 
GFS late sat. night into sunday.
.5-.8 inches of water in the form of rain courtesy of a storm cutting up into the great lakes. 
WTF? THERE ARE NO MOUNTAINS THERE.


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## loafer89 (Dec 18, 2007)

ajl50 said:


> Yea...we'll need it.
> GFS late sat. night into sunday.
> .5-.8 inches of water in the form of rain courtesy of a storm cutting up into the great lakes.
> WTF? THERE ARE NO MOUNTAINS THERE.


 
This could possibly be the start of a pattern change to inland/Great Lakes running storms for the next few weeks at least, keeping New England on the warmer rainy side of most storms. At least this is what the forecast model that I watched on Accuweather suggested.

Upcoming Major Events
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
The overall weather pattern across North America will begin to change this week as a more west to easterly flow of air takes over across the Lower 48 and southern Canada, which will spread "milder" Pacific air from west to east and gradually push out the cold air. With this coming pattern we can expect the Arctic air to be confined from Alaska to northern BC and northern Alberta with another pocket from Labrador on north. Latest indications from long range models actually amplifies this pattern over the next couple of weeks which will lead to above normal temperatures across the eastern half of the U.S. and Canada, while the southwest coast of Canada and the U.S. Pacific Northwest continues to be under the influence of a powerful Pacific jet stream which will bring storm after storm across the region through the end of the month and perhaps into January.


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## billski (Dec 18, 2007)

loafer89 said:


> This could possibly be the start of a pattern change to inland/Great Lakes running storms for the next few weeks at least, keeping New England on the warmer rainy side of most storms. At least this is what the forecast model that I watched on Accuweather suggested.
> 
> Upcoming Major Events
> Tuesday, December 18, 2007
> The overall weather pattern across North America will begin to change this week as a more west to easterly flow of air takes over across the Lower 48 and southern Canada, which will spread "milder" Pacific air from west to east and gradually push out the cold air. With this coming pattern we can expect the Arctic air to be confined from Alaska to northern BC and northern Alberta with another pocket from Labrador on north. Latest indications from long range models actually amplifies this pattern over the next couple of weeks which will lead to above normal temperatures across the eastern half of the U.S. and Canada, while the southwest coast of Canada and the U.S. Pacific Northwest continues to be under the influence of a powerful Pacific jet stream which will bring storm after storm across the region through the end of the month and perhaps into January.



Accuweather's never been wr:dunce:ng bef:dunce:re, have they?
I'll keep my money on Scott, but unfortunately, he's skiing all week


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## ajl50 (Dec 18, 2007)

yea but accuweather's long range discussion is full of crap. 
They might be right but they are terrible with long range discussions. 

Sadly i do think the best skiing for the next few weeks is through sat. After that it's going to be a  thaw-rain-freeze- lightsnow pattern for a while. 
Then again who knows. 
just hope this storm will peter out. I don't think the track is changing. It's going to be a january of great lakes storms.


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## Greg (Dec 18, 2007)

NWS forecast discussion for the Sundown area:



> WEDNESDAY...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
> FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE CLIPPER LOW MOVING
> TOWARDS THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY THE AFTERNOON.  WE BRING LIKELY POPS
> FOR *A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE
> ...


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## loafer89 (Dec 18, 2007)

Well December was forecast to be warm and that certainly did not happen. Our local news said that Bradley/Hartford airport has recieved 15.9" of snow so far this season vs *24" for the entire year of the 2006-2007 winter season.*

Hopefully the pattern change will lead to a serious build-up and outbreak of cold weather in January.


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## ajl50 (Dec 18, 2007)

Yea-- that's brining it back to wed. clipper and that's great. 3-4 is still 3-4. The more we get now the better for the holiday week. 

The key for those of us stuck not skiing until the holiday time is going to be this storm sat night- monday am. 
Currently it is progged to up up into the great lakes and blow up there with snow- mix-rain light snow forecasted for BTV area.  We either want this track to change- possible since this track depends on a ridge developing over the east coast pushing track or we want the storm to die down and bust. Less rain is good. 
After that then a 4 inch clipper is  what we need to rework the base from frozen rock to carveable stuff.

Then again wetting and freezing the snow pack that is down now could mean it's not going anywhere for a while!


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## loafer89 (Dec 18, 2007)

My neighbor is having a "passing of the longest night" party on saturday:-?

I can't decide if I should wear black to this affair:razz:

I will have to retaliate with a passing of the longest day party in June and celebrate it on Mount Hood


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## Greg (Dec 18, 2007)

loafer89 said:


> Well December was forecast to be warm and that certainly did not happen. Our local news said that Bradley/Hartford airport has recieved 15.9" of snow so far this season vs *24" for the entire year of the 2006-2007 winter season.*
> 
> Hopefully the pattern change will lead to a serious build-up and outbreak of cold weather in January.



As we head into January, perhaps warmer than average temps are not such a bad thing, as long as it's only moderate. Might actually result in more snow than a super arctic cold and dry January. We're a million miles ahead of where we were last year so let's just roll with it.


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## ajl50 (Dec 18, 2007)

I'm rolling with it...I'm just saying I don't like the strong southeast rigde and it's desire to push storms into the great lakes. 
HOWEVER that's been the pattern so far so maybe the models i keep seeing don't know what the hell is going on. 

Whatever happens happens- at least with weather we can say we actually don't have any control.


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## ALLSKIING (Dec 18, 2007)

Greg said:


> As we head into January, perhaps warmer than average temps are not such a bad thing, as long as it's only moderate. Might actually result in more snow than a super arctic cold and dry January. We're a million miles ahead of where we were last year so let's just roll with it.



I agree with with..If there has to be a warm up, let it happen during the coldest months.


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## awf170 (Dec 18, 2007)

ajl50 said:


> Yea...we'll need it.
> GFS late sat. night into sunday.
> .5-.8 inches of water in the form of rain courtesy of a storm cutting up into the great lakes.
> WTF? THERE ARE NO MOUNTAINS THERE.




Do you ever have something positive to say?


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## loafer89 (Dec 18, 2007)

NOAA is calling for 1 - 1.5" of *rain *for my part of Connecticut on sunday:evil:

Even the forecast for Sugarloaf is calling for rain on sunday. We will probably make a dash for a day at Sunday River on saturday and then go home if the current forecast holds true, which I hope it does not.


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## loafer89 (Dec 18, 2007)

An extended outlook for Canada, but it does have some bearing on our weather:

Model Update through March
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
The European monthly forecast for North America just updated over the weekend. The model creates a new monthly forecast once a month and from what I see it continues to sing the same tune in its forecast for the remainder of the winter and into March across North America. This consistency in the forecasted pattern over the next several months gives forecasters like myself a little more confidence in the models predictions, compared to one that jumps all over the place. Here is what the new update shows......


*January 2008*
The model continues to forecast a mean ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere (warm/dry pocket aloft) extending from the southern Plains to the U.S. East Coast and then into Atlantic Canada, while a large trough of low pressure in the upper levels (cold pocket aloft) extends from Alaska to northern British Columbia. This type of pattern will continue to feed Pacific air across much of the Lower 48 of the U.S. and then into eastern Canada, while the Arctic air is confined from Alaska to the Northwest Territories and perhaps down into northern BC and Alberta. This pattern would bring many storms into the Pacific Northwest coast. A second main storm track would extend from the central U.S. Plains then up into the Upper Great Lakes, leading to a snowy month from southeastern Manitoba through northwestern and portions of central Ontario. This forecast, if correct, would lead to a snowy, cold month for much of BC and western Alberta.* Farther east, it looks drier and mild across the eastern U.S.* Across the remainder of Ontario and in southern Quebec precipitation will be near normal, but rain and mixed precipitation could be more of an issue, than it was in December. Temperatures across Atlantic Canada would be slightly above normal with less storms.


*February 2008*
Not much to say about February, since it looks a lot like January from the model forecast. A couple of differences, the coldest, Arctic air expands farther to the south and east and gets into the western prairies, while still covering the interior of BC and the Yukon. Greenland would be colder than normal. *The mean storm track might shift a little farther to the south from the central Plains to the middle Great Lakes and then across southern **Quebec** or northern New England,* which may mean an increased chance for above-normal snowfall from central and eastern Ontario through Quebec and New Brunswick. The Northwest storminess would also begin to diminish a bit, but still active compared to normal.


*March 2008*
The model is forecasting the eastern ridge to slowly retreat and weaken over the southern U.S. during the month, while a broad trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere covers much of western Canada. If the forecast is correct, the mean storm pattern across the U.S. would continue to shift southward and run from the southern plains to the lower Great Lakes or Northeastern U.S., while the Southeastern U.S. remains dry and unseasonably mild. *This pattern would bring above normal precipitation to the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S., including central/southern/eastern Ontario and Quebec with near to slightly above-normal temperatures.* Snowfall would be above normal throughout most of Ontario and southern Quebec. Atlantic Canada would see temperatures trend back to normal with normal precipitation. Much of western Canada would remain colder than normal, with much below-normal temperatures from interior BC to Saskatchewan. Snowfall will be above normal in the Canadian Rockies once again, and probably most of the prairies.


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## ajl50 (Dec 19, 2007)

Noaa just put up snow advisory for BTV east as the trough associated with this clipper will strengthen a little bit. Looks like from today through thursday there will be about 4 for the dacks, 5-7 for vt and parts east. 
Not bad, not bad. 

Storm sunday looks a little disorganized and the amt. of precip. has decreased a little bit. 
After that - some cold air looks to work in.


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## awf170 (Dec 19, 2007)

ajl50 said:


> Noaa just put up snow advisory for BTV east as the trough associated with this clipper will strengthen a little bit. Looks like from today through thursday there will be about 4 for the dacks, 5-7 for vt and parts east.
> Not bad, not bad.
> 
> Storm sunday looks a little disorganized and the amt. of precip. has decreased a little bit.
> After that - some cold air looks to work in.



I like this post a lot more.   Looks like Thursday could be my 4th straight powder day...


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## WJenness (Dec 19, 2007)

awf170 said:


> I like this post a lot more.   Looks like Thursday could be my 4th straight powder day...



Where are you headed?

I'll be at Wa after work with a few people from work... I'll look for you if you're going to be there.

-w


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## The Sneak (Dec 19, 2007)

Nice!
I'll be @ Waterville tomorrow and Wa saturday AM. 

Lookin good...


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## awf170 (Dec 19, 2007)

WJenness said:


> Where are you headed?
> 
> I'll be at Wa after work with a few people from work... I'll look for you if you're going to be there.
> 
> -w



Mad River Glen, again.  The next time I'll be at Wawa is probably Christmas Eve.


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## Greg (Dec 19, 2007)

awf170 said:


> Mad River Glen, again.



How are you liking MRG, Austin? This was your first season there, right?


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## WJenness (Dec 19, 2007)

awf170 said:


> Mad River Glen, again.  The next time I'll be at Wawa is probably Christmas Eve.



Ah, enjoy.

I'll be at SR on Christmas Eve.

See you after the holiday.

-w


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## loafer89 (Dec 19, 2007)

Totally unrelated to the coming storm, but I was almost killed by a huge slab of ice/snow that flew off of the SUV in front of me coming to work today. I was just merging onto I-291 when the ice/snow flew off this persons roof and must have sailed better that 25' into the air. If I did not swerve out of the way it would have smashed my windshield.

Luckily there was room to take quick action. A state tropper was behind me by a few cars and quickly passed me and pulled over the car.

I hear this is a failure to secure load ticket with a $110 fine.


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## WJenness (Dec 19, 2007)

loafer89 said:


> Totally unrelated to the coming storm, but I was almost killed by a huge slab of ice/snow that flew off of the SUV in front of me coming to work today. I was just merging onto I-291 when the ice/snow flew off this persons roof and must have sailed better that 25' into the air. If I did not swerve out of the way it would have smashed my windshield.
> 
> Luckily there was room to take quick action. A state tropper was behind me by a few cars and quickly passed me and pulled over the car.
> 
> I hear this is a failure to secure load ticket with a $110 fine.



I lost a windshield like this a couple years back. I was on I-93N coming out of Boston, 18 wheeler in the lane next to me hit a bump, I saw the ice/snow coming but had nowhere to go... crack across my whole windshield... 1-800-54-GIANT...

-w


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## ajl50 (Dec 19, 2007)

New Jersey is the worst with this ice of of SUV/ Trucks thing. 
It seems people there don't understand that you need to take the stuff off the car before you drive. 
I've been hit with chunks so many times in the last two years i can't even count them all.


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## Warp Daddy (Dec 19, 2007)

Its Happening here as we speak  ----------3 inches down in last 90 min, DRY and Lite


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## Vortex (Dec 19, 2007)

Sunday River is posting they expect between 6 and 10 inches of new snow.


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## awf170 (Dec 19, 2007)

Greg said:


> How are you liking MRG, Austin? This was your first season there, right?



It's the best ski area in the east, IMO.  And yeah, I have never skied there before this season.  I already have 4 days there, and will probably finish the year with around 20.  



WJenness said:


> Ah, enjoy.
> 
> I'll be at SR on Christmas Eve.
> 
> ...



Oh yeah, I forgot about your trip.  Have fun.


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## loafer89 (Dec 19, 2007)

A big wall of green is on the radar heading for eastern Connecticut. I guess we will have snow within the hour.


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## Zand (Dec 19, 2007)

We got a dusting earlier with a small shower, and like Loafer said, a bigger band is on its way in. Some of the optimistic weather forecasts are saying 2-4" around here but I'd say 2" is gonna be tops around here. Looks good for NH.


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