# Jan 4-5 Event



## billski (Dec 29, 2014)

Something could be brewing.  Granted, it's six days away, this is worth watching

MID-ATLANTIC - Per WxRisk
"NOTIFICATION     JAN 4-5    EAST COAST  LOW... if it  stays    south  IF... IF..  poses  the threat of   SNOW & ICE  for  Middle Atlantic   region 

 Given how awful December has been with respect to winter weather lovers  over the East Coast  there are number reasons to be skeptical about  this potential event.  On the other hand to ignore this potential event  and say nothing until it's only 48 or  60  hours away is NOT  what  WxRisk is about.  There are plenty of examples  of winters which seem to be going along quite snowless  then a surprise  event hits.

 This image show with the surface  map from the  European model from early Monday morning look like.  North of the white  line  the precipitation is snow but the low level cold air may be strong  enough to allow for the potential of significant icing over large  portions of Virginia and Maryland  -- SEE PURPLE  AREA."


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## billski (Dec 29, 2014)




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## billski (Dec 29, 2014)

Start at 8:30


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## billski (Dec 29, 2014)

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/html/apcp_usbg_animation.html


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## steamboat1 (Dec 29, 2014)

billski said:


> Something could be brewing.  Granted, it's six days away, this is worth watching


Let's hope so Billski. Would be perfect timing since the 5th is when my pass is not blacked out for the holiday anymore.


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## Not Sure (Dec 29, 2014)

billski said:


> http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/html/apcp_usbg_animation.html



Another something coming 360hrs too


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## catsup948 (Dec 29, 2014)

I was reading there could be multiple chances next week.  Cold will try to suppress everything and there is no blocking so we can't expect a massive storm in the pattern but the cold will be around.  Over running systems with a heavy front end thump and a change to sleet/frz/rain could be in store for at least southern new england.  Similar to last year the cold might be to much for these systems to move up into northern new england.


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## Smellytele (Dec 29, 2014)

billski said:


> Given how awful December has been with respect to winter weather lovers  over the East Coast  there are number reasons to be skeptical about  this potential event.



The skiing had been great, some of the best December skiing until the 23rd.


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## mishka (Dec 29, 2014)

Smellytele said:


> The skiing had been great, some of the best December skiing until the 23rd.



+10


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## deadheadskier (Dec 29, 2014)

Smellytele said:


> The skiing had been great, some of the best December skiing until the 23rd.



+1.  Great December


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## Not Sure (Dec 29, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> +1.  Great December



https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/mount-washington-weather.aspx

57" so far , above avg.
I've been out more than usual at this time of year even for Pa.


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## catsup948 (Dec 29, 2014)

December was pretty sweet until the rain.  Still a great base just waiting for some more snow!


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## mriceyman (Dec 30, 2014)

Another system that looks wet. Not good. Maybe luck will be on our side this time. 


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## ScottySkis (Dec 30, 2014)

Smellytele said:


> The skiing had been great, some of the best December skiing until the 23rd.



+420/.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 30, 2014)

Catskills snow from this?


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## Tin (Dec 30, 2014)

Things are looking good for Sunday....


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## bzrperfspec77 (Dec 30, 2014)

Looks like I may be in the right spot this coming weekend! We were going to come home Sunday Morning but maybe not now...


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## xwhaler (Dec 30, 2014)

I'm skiing somewhere on Sunday...how much and what form of precip falls will determine where I am.


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## billski (Dec 30, 2014)

Don't get your hopes up too far.  There is definitely precipitation coming.  Why type it will take is very uncertain.

The below are valley forecasts.  I think the mountains northward from Killington - Cranmore -  Sunday Riverrds stand the best chance of staying all snow.  Those places could see a noticeable snowfall.  


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE *BURLINGTON *VT
915 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2014

_BOTH MODELS (GFS and ECMWF) SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A BURST OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THEREAFTER PRECIP COULD BECOME MIXED GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. -_ 



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE *ALBANY *NY
845 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2014

_SNOW APPEARS MOST PROBABLE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WARMER AIR RAPIDLY MOVING IN SUNDAY MORNING CHANGING SNOW TO
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. ...GIVEN THE STORM TRACK IT IS POSSIBLE
FOR SOME SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
_
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE *GRAY *ME
600 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2014

_I THINK THAT NORTHERN AREAS
ARE LIKELY TO SEE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT FROM THIS TRACK WITH
POSSIBLY SOME SLEET TOWARDS THE END. THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION
FROM SNOW...TO SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT 5 DAYS OUT IT IS ANYONES GUESS WHERE THE MIXING WILL
BE AND ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK WOULD DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE
FORECAST._


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## lstone84 (Dec 30, 2014)

GFS, GFS parallel, Euro all show a storm for late weekend, hope it stays far enough south for all snow  


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## billski (Dec 30, 2014)




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## billski (Dec 30, 2014)

126 hours


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## Rowsdower (Dec 30, 2014)

Looks like the Adirondacks are going to make out best with this one. Catskills and Greens should get mostly snow with minimal mixing. Pokes will get more mixing and rain.

Looks like another potential system for the 9th/10th, but that's too far for speculation as this point. Temps look like they'll be much colder though.


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## Tin (Dec 30, 2014)

IF this thing even happens...

 Thinking of a similar mid-December system last year where it was in the teens to start and then 6-12" later ended as freezing drizzle and in the mid 30s. The bulk of the precip looks to fall in the Saturday afternoon-night window when it will be mid 20s or so. The accumulating stuff should really shut down prior to above freezing temps.


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## billski (Dec 30, 2014)

THIS is the problem






Then it gets cold again


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## Warp Daddy (Dec 30, 2014)

Snow Ridge is supposed ro e buried over te next few days we're talking FEET of snow again according to noon weather report today


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## lstone84 (Dec 30, 2014)

Euro, GFS, GFS parallel snow totals through Monday...includes minor accums f/ the next couple days. 



Hehehehe


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## lstone84 (Dec 30, 2014)

Added another model, eh????




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## Not Sure (Dec 30, 2014)

One more take FF 4:00


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## catsup948 (Dec 30, 2014)

I think if the cold can hold out the weekend storm could have some legs down here.  I'm not sold on tons of warmth invading the cold airmass.  This could be a heavy front end thump with a flip to sleet/frz/rain then possible backend snow showers.  Interesting to see how much snow we get.


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## catsup948 (Dec 30, 2014)

Tin said:


> IF this thing even happens...
> 
> Thinking of a similar mid-December system last year where it was in the teens to start and then 6-12" later ended as freezing drizzle and in the mid 30s. The bulk of the precip looks to fall in the Saturday afternoon-night window when it will be mid 20s or so. The accumulating stuff should really shut down prior to above freezing temps.



This would be great!  We got about 10 inches from that storm last season with some freezing rain and sleet at the very end.  Similar setup with the cold and over running snow.


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## ss20 (Dec 30, 2014)

Go west young man!  Gore, Whiteface, Catskills, and the Great Lakes area.


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## billski (Dec 30, 2014)

Josh Fox, MRG, 12/30 blog:
_"The upcoming weekend storm continues to look significant and though we  have narrowed the outcomes of this considerably there remains some small  uncertainty regarding the final track of this storm. The main area of  low pressure could travel anywhere between extreme southern Quebec and  Massachusetts. There are other questions relating to the evolution of  this storm as it interacts with the Atlantic coast as there most always  is. That all being said, I am relatively confident that some significant  snow should impact northern Vermont early Sunday, accumulate several  inches and then possibly change to a sleet/freezing rain mixture and  possibly not. I don't think the region has to worry about the "R" word  anymore though coastal cities should see that almost exclusively. The  possibility of a 8-16 inch powder-fest still exists though and hopefully  this outcome wins the day and gets 2015 off to a positive start."_


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 30, 2014)

This has the looks of a classic SWFE (southwest flow event) where we quickly thump6+ inches pretty anomalously before the southwest flow rips in warm air aloft and brings in a dry slot. Tin summarized the scenario perfectly. Northern areas would typically stay all snow in this scenario though due to latitudinal help.The cold high pressure in Canada helps stop this storm from becoming a cutter by modifying the flow and delaying the arrival of the warm air.

If this storm delays or speeds up by a day, it will cut inland and rain. It is imperative that the HP trenches down just as the storm arrives.

Nonetheless, 07-08 had plenty of these events in a similar pattern so this may be the first of many. Early February of last season had a good SWFE that dropped a foot in most places, so the ceiling here is high.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 31, 2014)

Hoping to do Mt Snow on Sunday. Keeping an eye on this!


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## billski (Dec 31, 2014)

Watch out for the wind on the backside of this thing.  It could ruin any sort of powderfest.


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## lstone84 (Dec 31, 2014)

don't think there's going to be any sort of powder fests after the most recent round of model runs.


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## Tin (Dec 31, 2014)

As of now another "base builder" event with heavy wet stuff ending crunchy. Still a decent amount in the Whites to help get things going again. Places like Mt. Snow, Stratton, and Crotched that were looking at about 6-8" two days ago are now looking like 2-4" and ending near 50 degrees. The warm air will work in early Sunday morning right when the heavy stuff is coming down.


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 31, 2014)

Bad model runs across the board this afternoon. The warm flow arrives faster because the cold HP retreated faster.


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## VTKilarney (Dec 31, 2014)

What are the top one or two websites for a layperson to keep apprised of northeast ski weather?


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## billski (Dec 31, 2014)

VTKilarney said:


> What are the top one or two websites for a layperson to keep apprised of northeast ski weather?



We're still in a modeling phase. These are not forecasts and nobody's willing to put probabilities on it.  Forecasts won't begin until three days out.

On a per-ski area basis, this was pretty good last year:
http://www.snow-forecast.com

Modeling snow is a bit trickier.  I would suggest you use this one, if you don't mind death by a 1000 clicks
http://wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm


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## billski (Dec 31, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Bad model runs across the board this afternoon. The warm flow arrives faster because the cold HP retreated faster.


That sux.  That puts only Sugarloaf and saddleback in the money.   Glad we're still four days away.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 31, 2014)

How looking for Catskills any snow at all for Roxbury elevation 3500?


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## billski (Dec 31, 2014)

ScottySkis said:


> How looking for Catskills any snow at all for Roxbury elevation 3500?


  Right under a snow gun after the front passes by would be your best bet.   :dunce:


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2014)

Yuck......  Just looking at this now and this is the type of "storm" that it would be better that it DOESNT happen, for most areas.

On the bright side, at least cold air seems to be following on its' heels.


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## lstone84 (Dec 31, 2014)

Cold air doesn't look to stick around for that long either 


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 31, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yuck......  Just looking at this now and this is the type of "storm" that it would be better that it DOESNT happen, for most areas.
> 
> On the bright side, at least cold air seems to be following on its' heels.



The question is, is this storm going to drop more snow in San Diego than New England?


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 31, 2014)

Wishful thinking:  Maybe the temperature profiles will be off by a handful of degrees and it will stay as mostly snow for more areas.


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## billski (Dec 31, 2014)

*Tim Kelly sez.....*


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## MadMadWorld (Dec 31, 2014)

Looks like Tuckerman will be in play....who's in?


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## catsup948 (Dec 31, 2014)

Antecedent airmass is very good.  This will lay down a nice base with some sleet/frz/rain on top of it.  Good base building. It's looking very cold late next week.   Snow will be locked for better or worse.


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## Tin (Dec 31, 2014)

catsup948 said:


> Antecedent airmass is very good.  This will lay down a nice base with some sleet/frz/rain on top of it.  Good base building. It's looking very cold late next week.   Snow will be locked for better or worse.




Looking like a powder day for places like Sundown and Wawa on Weds lol


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## St. Bear (Dec 31, 2014)

catsup948 said:


> Antecedent airmass is very good.  This will lay down a nice base with some sleet/frz/rain on top of it.  Good base building. It's looking very cold late next week.   Snow will be locked for better or worse.



Like I said 2 weeks ago, a base is only good if it's followed by snow.


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## catsup948 (Dec 31, 2014)

Next week will have at least one Alberta clipper.  1-3 inch light fast movers. Maybe one redevelops into a bigger storm off shore, the 7th is a possibility.   This would likely not impact ski country though.


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## catsup948 (Dec 31, 2014)

Though something to watch tomorrow for northern vermont.  Surface front dropping out of Canada mixing with lake effect moisture could produce up to a foot of snow.  http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 1, 2015)

Better runs last night. More areas back in play.


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## 4aprice (Jan 1, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Though something to watch tomorrow for northern vermont.  Surface front dropping out of Canada mixing with lake effect moisture could produce up to a foot of snow.  http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off



Getting nickeled and dimed is a good thing and should get things spiced up again quickly (maybe even the woods).  Hopefully we can get a couple of big ticket items in February and March.  This year is reminding me of 1992-93 so far and if it plays out that way again we will all be happy.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## catsup948 (Jan 1, 2015)

Mid to end of January could be very good too.  Skiing is great at Berkshire East today.


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## xwhaler (Jan 2, 2015)




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## Tin (Jan 2, 2015)

xwhaler said:


>



Burlington has higher totals and mention it not changing over until the late morning and afternoon.


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## St. Bear (Jan 2, 2015)

Tin said:


> Burlington has higher totals and mention it not changing over until the late morning and afternoon.



https://www.weather.gov/btv/stormtotalprecip


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## xwhaler (Jan 2, 2015)

Seems NH/ME are forecasted for higher totals than VT from this one at least per those NWS maps. That darker blue blob over the N Conway area is probably good for Cranmore, Black NH, Shawnee Peak


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## St. Bear (Jan 2, 2015)

xwhaler said:


> Seems NH/ME are forecasted for higher totals than VT from this one at least per those NWS maps. That darker blue blob over the N Conway area is probably good for Cranmore, Black NH, Shawnee Peak



Ever the optimist, I'm going to say that elevation will make Wildcat the winner.


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## Tin (Jan 2, 2015)

St. Bear said:


> https://www.weather.gov/btv/stormtotalprecip



Well that changed....ugh



St. Bear said:


> Ever the optimist, I'm going to say that elevation will make Wildcat the winner.



Agreed. 10-12" above mid mountain wouldn't shock me.


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## xwhaler (Jan 2, 2015)

I do have a Wildcat voucher I could use for Sunday.....hmmm


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## Rowsdower (Jan 2, 2015)

Am I missing something? GFS suddenly shifted the rain/snow line south. Pokes are in the 6-8' range and the Catskills are 8-10'. Total 180 from the rest of the weeks forecast.


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## St. Bear (Jan 2, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> Am I missing something? GFS suddenly shifted the rain/snow line south. *Pokes are in the 6-8' range and the Catskills are 8-10'. *Total 180 from the rest of the weeks forecast.



This would be epic.


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## moguler6 (Jan 2, 2015)

6-8 feet! That's awesome.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 2, 2015)

St. Bear said:


> This would be epic.



 nothing like a 100" dump!


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## dlague (Jan 2, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> Am I missing something? GFS suddenly shifted the rain/snow line south. Pokes are in the 6-8' range and the Catskills are 8-10'. Total 180 from the rest of the weeks forecast.



Little typo getting blown up!


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## dlague (Jan 2, 2015)

St. Bear said:


> This would be epic.





moguler6 said:


> 6-8 feet! That's awesome.





Boston Bulldog said:


> &#55357;&#56834;&#55357;&#56834; nothing like a 100" dump!



Only problem - snow would be too deep for the lifts to spin.  Still sounds nice!


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## St. Bear (Jan 2, 2015)

It's all in good fun.  Just a slow day in the office.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 2, 2015)

Platty Sunday would be awesome.


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## steamboat1 (Jan 2, 2015)

dlague said:


> Only problem - snow would be too deep for the lifts to spin.  Still sounds nice!


I had this happen in Tahoe.


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## abc (Jan 2, 2015)

ScottySkis said:


> Platty Sunday would be awesome.


Unless you haven't updated the forecast, it's still showing it'll end with rain.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 2, 2015)

Well my face is red.

I looked at the models again and it seems to be 1-3 this weekend, plus ice and rain on top I guess. But it looks like they're predicting another 3-6 inches monday/tuesday in the Poconos and 6-8 in the Catskills.\

Does anyone else see this? None of the major forecasting sites are saying much.


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## St. Bear (Jan 2, 2015)

The lack of forecast maps regarding this storm is bothersome.


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## xwhaler (Jan 2, 2015)

Matt Noyes (NECN) just posted on his FB page. I generally like his forecasting and feel he doesnt get too hyped up for these things. Also understands what elevation and wind shifts can do for ski country.

Incoming snow later Saturday:
* Arrival late day to evening (an hour either side of noon NYC, 2 PM Hartford, 4 PM Worcester, 5 PM Boston, give or take an hour)
* Changes to rain for many overnight Saturday night
* Mild rain showers south Sunday, mix north
* Prolonged period of freezing rain Western MA (west of I-91) and in valleys of Southwest NH may linger into early Sunday monring, resulting in a few isolated power outages


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## xwhaler (Jan 2, 2015)




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## xwhaler (Jan 2, 2015)




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## Not Sure (Jan 2, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> Well my face is red.
> 
> I looked at the models again and it seems to be 1-3 this weekend, plus ice and rain on top I guess. But it looks like they're predicting another 3-6 inches monday/tuesday in the Poconos and 6-8 in the Catskills.\
> 
> Does anyone else see this? None of the major forecasting sites are saying much.



Did'nt see actual accumulations but very dry snow predicted


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## Tin (Jan 2, 2015)

There are a couple of clipper systems coming. One Tuesday night and looks like some lingering stuff Weds-Thursday.


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## billski (Jan 2, 2015)




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## billski (Jan 2, 2015)

Precip type


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## MadMadWorld (Jan 2, 2015)

billski said:


> Precip type



Me no likey


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## St. Bear (Jan 2, 2015)

Doesn't the NAM have a pretty terrible track record? What's the Euro have to say?


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## Tin (Jan 2, 2015)

Euro has been all over the place with this thing up until Weds.


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## drjeff (Jan 2, 2015)

Front end snow will be substantially "diluted" by back end WARM, but short lived temps and roughly 0.5" give or take a few tenths of rain 

Not a good track with this one for essentially all of New England


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## billski (Jan 2, 2015)

St. Bear said:


> Doesn't the NAM have a pretty terrible track record? What's the Euro have to say?



Euro:


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## catsup948 (Jan 3, 2015)

I bet we net gain about an inch by Monday am.  But that inch will cover and have some serious staying power.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 3, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> I bet we net gain about an inch by Monday am.  But that inch will cover and have some serious staying power.



Especially with the deep freeze we're getting next week. It's gonna be bulletproof out there. Expect a lot of new snow to be made next week.


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## billski (Jan 3, 2015)

I wish the timing was off by about 12 hours - snow in the day, niar at night.  I'd be there for sure.

ICE FORECAST






SNOW FORECAST





PRECIP FORECAST


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## Tin (Jan 3, 2015)

Yup. 12 hours. 25* at my place in RI right now. Might hit 60 tomorrow. The ice is a scary thing


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## wa-loaf (Jan 3, 2015)

Heading to the mighty WA tonight to hopefully take advantage of the snow before the turn-over.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 3, 2015)

Good snow falling in Hudson valley for about 11am start ed nice fluffy 2 inches down so far in my backyard I hear Hunter is skiing great now . all those out today enjoy be careful leaving and driving with idiot on the roads.


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## VTKilarney (Jan 3, 2015)

I wonder what the northern New England mountains will be like tomorrow.  Specifically, how many people are leaving tonight versus tomorrow.  It's a gamble for sure.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 3, 2015)

The sleet has started 60 miles from the a Catskills


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## ScottySkis (Jan 3, 2015)

Cold wet freezing rain now where I live why. Be careful anyone don't drive on black ice if you don't have to.


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## steamboat1 (Jan 3, 2015)

ScottySkis said:


> Cold wet freezing rain now where I live why. Be careful anyone don't drive on black ice if you don't have to.


Good advice Scotty.


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## WWF-VT (Jan 3, 2015)

Snowing and 12 degrees currently at Mt Ellen.  Can't believe that it's going to get warm and change to mix in the A.M.


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## Kleetus (Jan 3, 2015)

At Syracuse where I have been residing for the last week and a half it's 34 and raining...not that anybody or many on AZ ski around this area...but rain is coming...I head back to New England tomorrow.


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## JDMRoma (Jan 3, 2015)

1/4 inch of ice for the north country doesn't sound good......will certainly be a good base in the woods once we get
more snow !


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 3, 2015)

Still 15 degrees here. 3" down so far and snowing steady. Not planning on going anywhere tomorrow morning with the freezing rain that is forecast. .25" of ice may make for a mess with trees too.


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## catsup948 (Jan 3, 2015)

2 inches down here.  Tons of sleet mixed in.  Now it's snowing.  Skiing was choice tonight!  TR up soon.


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## moguler6 (Jan 3, 2015)

Every possible form of precipitation is currently falling at Killington.  Gonna be ugly tomorrow.


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## wa-loaf (Jan 3, 2015)

Made it to Wawa tonight. Great skiing. 3-4" turned to sleet as we were leaving around 9.


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## billski (Jan 3, 2015)




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## lstone84 (Jan 3, 2015)

16" at Massif du Sud Thurs night - good leftovers today. Riding Le Massif or Mt. St. Anne tomorrow. Hoping it stays mostly snow. 4th year in a row I've chased to Quebec around Xmas/New Years to outrun a crappy situation in New England. Plus the food is amazing. 


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