# 1/12 Storm Discussion Thread



## from_the_NEK (Jan 9, 2012)

Will it stay cold enough?
.
.
.
.
.
.
Or not?



I'm hoping for a net gain.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 9, 2012)

Well it went from rain, to mostly rain, to rain/snow mix, to maybe we'll get lucky have almost all snow, so I'd say the trend is positive. 

 At least for NNE that is, looks like the Poconos are going to take a hit, and I guess the jury is out on the Catskills.


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## ALLSKIING (Jan 9, 2012)

I bet Jay gets most of the goods! although freezing rain is good for base building...


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## hammer (Jan 9, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> Well it went from rain, to mostly rain, to rain/snow mix, to maybe we'll get lucky have almost all snow, so I'd say the trend is positive.
> 
> At least for NNE that is, looks like the Poconos are going to take a hit, and I guess the jury is out on the Catskills.


This.

I was hearing about a complete NCP event early this morning and now we are looking at a mix north of Boston.  Will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

I will have to drive my backup vehicle the rest of this week (primary will be in the body shop) and the backup vehicle has tires with minimal tread life left...so now would be the time to get frozen precip.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 9, 2012)

Its always good when forecast changes from r word to snow


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## HowieT2 (Jan 9, 2012)

how much qpf are we talking about?  
not to be greedy, but if this thing shifts too far SE, those of us concerned about NNE, might be left yearning.


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## mlctvt (Jan 9, 2012)

NOAA is now calling for all snow for Southern Vt, Mount Snow area from Weds through Friday. 
Not sure on amounts yet.


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## billski (Jan 9, 2012)

Matty is getting psyched
Tuesday cool front provides just enuf cold air 2 make Thu AM storm interesting. Getting excited for all Northern NewEng"
..
Timmy Kelly sez
"Another clipper system will race across Vermont Monday night with a few more inches of snow from Mount Mansfield to Jay Peak, the snowiest places in New England this winter."
...
The mountains of Vermont have a good chance for a net gain of snow Wednesday/Thursday but much of the region likely sees more rain than snow, at least until Friday. 
...
The story does not end there. A Major chill will be trying to advance into New England by Monday January 16th, but we have room for another storm before that happens"

A sight for sore eyes:






...
SNE NWS HAZARDOUS WEATHER STATEMENT

"THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT A NOREASTER MAY BRING
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY."

...NNE:
THURSDAY SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TREND SLIGHTLY COLDER.

crap-u-weather:














ARCTIC SLIDE PLAN - CONFIDENTIAL 
Preparation phase incomplete.  Strong winds will require fixed grip strategy.  Staging begins on Tuesday.  Cargo load Wednesday.  Thursday T-day.  Trajectory: Classified.   :smash:


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## billski (Jan 9, 2012)




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## billski (Jan 9, 2012)

HowieT2 said:


> how much qpf are we talking about?
> not to be greedy, but if this thing shifts too far SE, those of us concerned about NNE, might be left yearning.



QPF's are not issued this far out.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 9, 2012)

Wait, you mean it might actually snow a little bit?  Somewhere?  Somewhere east?

That unpossible.


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## andrec10 (Jan 10, 2012)

Well, it will snow since I have to go to Middlebury College for Work Wed and stay in Rutland Wed night!


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## billski (Jan 10, 2012)

The forecast below is consistent with the weather wonks.  All snow above i-90


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## ScottySkis (Jan 10, 2012)

Winter has arrived yahoos hope everyone gets to enjoy this weekend looks great


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## billski (Jan 10, 2012)

andrec10 said:


> Well, it will snow since I have to go to Middlebury College for Work Wed and stay in Rutland Wed night!


Life is tough


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## xwhaler (Jan 10, 2012)

Bring it on! Hoping to be at Magic Sat AM looking to open up some new terrain!


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## HowieT2 (Jan 10, 2012)

billski said:


> QPF's are not issued this far out.



I know which is why I'm looking for some guestimates to wet my appetite.

best I can discern is 3-6" thursday and 3-6" friday for the MRV.


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## billski (Jan 10, 2012)

Matt Noyes:
Early to make certain calls on Thu storm, esp given northwest trend of projected storm tracks this year, but 6-12" Northern NewEng possible


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## HowieT2 (Jan 10, 2012)

billski said:


> Matt Noyes:
> Early to make certain calls on Thu storm, esp given northwest trend of projected storm tracks this year, but 6-12" Northern NewEng possible



I'm in good company then.

note-not bad timing either.  should be ok to drive up friday night.


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## St. Bear (Jan 10, 2012)

FIS Lionel Hutz coming onboard:



> So what snowfalls are we looking at? Overall- when all is said and done I think it’s VERY possible somewhere along the Green Spine and ADK will be over a foot with the potential to get into the 18 inch range if that second low tracks a little south right over the spine. Otherwise I think this is a solid 5-10/6-12 type event
> across much of the North Country (at elevation). Further south I think southern VT could fall in that 4-8 range. Interestingly a low level moist easterly flow at the outset may spike snowfall rates in the Whites putting MTW in that 6-12 range.


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## HowieT2 (Jan 10, 2012)

St. Bear said:


> FIS Lionel Hutz coming onboard:



That's what I'm talking about!


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## billski (Jan 10, 2012)

xwhaler said:


> Bring it on! Hoping to be at Magic Sat AM looking to open up some new terrain!


If it's heavy, and it looks like it will be, Magic will get the base-builder to open trails like nutz!


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 10, 2012)

billski said:


> Matt Noyes:
> Early to make certain calls on Thu storm, esp given northwest trend of projected storm tracks this year, but *6-12" Northern NewEng possible*



 Lets conservatively assume the low end of 6 to 8 inches.  With great snowmaking temps all this week, plus the fresh on top of that, I dont think it's outrageous to suggest places like Smuggs, Jay, and Stowe could be near 100% open on Saturday.  

 Not enough to drop the ropes on something really steep like Upper Liftline at Smuggs or Starr at Stowe, but probably dang-near everything else.


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## billski (Jan 10, 2012)

*Prelim*

The weather wonks over at americanwx have stuck their necks out with a VERY Preliminary forecast.







Confidence in this is growing.  Models are in agreement.


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## WinnChill (Jan 10, 2012)

Yeah, I kinda like the southern resorts with southeast facing slopes (Okemo/Mt Snow/Bromley/Sunday River) being favored and can dig the southern Whites getting the most so far (Waterville/Gunstock).  We're still hovering around half a foot as a good starting point.


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## St. Bear (Jan 10, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Yeah, I kinda like the southern resorts with southeast facing slopes (Okemo/Mt Snow/Bromley/Sunday River) being favored and can dig the southern Whites getting the most so far (Waterville/Gunstock).  We're still hovering around half a foot as a good starting point.



Would you say they're more likely for higher overall totals, but some mixing, and the northern resorts would be mainly all snow, but lower totals?


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## WinnChill (Jan 10, 2012)

St. Bear said:


> Would you say they're more likely for higher overall totals, but some mixing, and the northern resorts would be mainly all snow, but lower totals?



Pretty much--six of one/half dozen of the other.  Mixing mostly S NH, S VT.  Will see how much it wavers next day or two.


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## Tooth (Jan 10, 2012)

Thanks WinnChill. You are the man.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 10, 2012)

TWC seems to think only NNE will get the really good stuff, with everyone else getting rain and rain/snow mix.   Hopefully they're failing to take into account elevation in this report.



> -	Rain will fall across the northern Mid-Atlantic, southern New York and coastal southern New England.
> -	Interior southern New England will deal with snow quickly changing to sleet and freezing rain and then for Connecticut and Rhode Island plain rain.
> -	*For east-central and northern New York, any initial snow will change to freezing rain or wintry mix.*
> -	*For northern New England, most of this storm could be in the form of snow. The southern parts of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine may see some mixing *and coastal New Hampshire and coastal southern Maine may ease above freezing with a change to plain rain.
> ...


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 10, 2012)

Then there's this guy, whose really trying to rain (no pun intended) on our parade.



> The forecast model* trends are indicating a weaker storm*, which could have the following ramifications:
> 
> Thursday:
> 
> ...



http://www.adirondackweathersite.com/2012/01/trends-for-thursday-friday.html


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## Nick (Jan 10, 2012)

I love that line, "predicting sick days".


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## Tooth (Jan 10, 2012)

NNE bingo. Friday looks nice too.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 10, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> Then there's this guy, whose really trying to rain (no pun intended) on our parade.
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.adirondackweathersite.com/2012/01/trends-for-thursday-friday.html


no no no dont want to hear that


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## billski (Jan 10, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> Then there's this guy, whose really trying to rain (no pun intended) on our parade.
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.adirondackweathersite.com/2012/01/trends-for-thursday-friday.html



His snowplow contractor must have raised the rates.  :roll:


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## billski (Jan 10, 2012)

Gray Maine NWS checks in


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## Tooth (Jan 10, 2012)

billski.... I have been using your weather website a ton. Thank you very much.


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## billski (Jan 10, 2012)

Tooth said:


> billski.... I have been using your weather website a ton. Thank you very much.



So am I!
 make sure you refresh the maps you go to from a link.  They are changing hourly..


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## Tooth (Jan 10, 2012)

Will do. Again, thank you. You have no idea how much I love this stuff. LOL.


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## billski (Jan 10, 2012)

BTW, The NWS Gray Maine WFO is always ultra-conservative, a bit sleepy and the last ones to weigh in.  I guess that way they get to spend more time ice fishing


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 10, 2012)

I've wasted the last few hours checking in on as many weather sites, outlets, and individual forecasts as humanly possible. 

 I've seen everything from Wednesday night through Thursday will be mostly all mixed precip with rain and sleet, to NNE could get walloped with up to 18 inches of snow (although only FIS said 18 is possible).  There seem to be more folks on the the negative side saying 6 inches is about as much as they'd hope for, but there are several who think 6-12 is a possibility (fingers crossed).

This all only confirms what I already knew.  Man is not yet sophisticated enough to predict the weather.  LOL.  This 'event" is less than 30 hours away for God's sake.


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## billski (Jan 10, 2012)

Urgent - winter weather message
national weather service gray me
304 pm est tue jan 10 2012

...winter storm watch in effect from late wednesday night through
thursday evening...

The national weather service in gray has issued a winter storm
watch...which is in effect from late wednesday night through
thursday evening.

* locations...the mountains of northern new hampshire and western
  maine...the foothills...and the coastal plain.

* hazard types...snow...with a mix of sleet and freezing rain
  possible for locations along the coastal plain.

* accumulations...6 inches or more are possible

* timing...snow will begin late wednesday night across
  southwestern new hampshire...and spread northeast from there.
  Thursday morning snow may mix with sleet or freezing rain before
  ending as freezing drizzle thursday evening.

* impacts...cold temperatures preceding snow will help them
  become snow covered and slippery shortly after onset.

* winds...northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* temperatures...in the lower 20s.

* visibilities...heavy snowfall may reduce visibility to one half
  mile or less at times.


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## hammer (Jan 10, 2012)

We don't need Accuweather...we have billski.:wink:

Thanks for the update.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 10, 2012)

billski said:


> Urgent - winter weather message
> national weather service gray me
> *304 pm est tue* jan 10 2012
> 
> ...



I give them credit for at least making a prediction.  

Apparently everyone else is going to wail until they're either sopping wet or getting out their snow blowers before making a prognostication!


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## billski (Jan 10, 2012)

hammer said:


> We don't need Accuweather...we have billski.:wink:
> 
> Thanks for the update.



Are you comparing me to the weather babes?  No match!


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 10, 2012)

Accuweather doesnt seem all that impressed. 

 Of course, they've been wrong about this storm all along, so...........









I like the 8 - 10 NOAA is thinking for SVT better!


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 10, 2012)

Then there's the Intellicast one, I'm been watching this one since early this morning, and they keep bumping up the snow totals (which I imagine has to be a good thing).  

Note most think it can snow THROUGH Thursday, and these totals are only through 1pm Thursday, with as much as a foot haven fallen along much of the spine by then. 

* Yes please!  *


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## ctenidae (Jan 10, 2012)

billski said:


>



Best part of winter?
Sweater puppies.

Off topic, but that pic is worth doubling up on.


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## WinnChill (Jan 10, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> I've wasted the last few hours checking in on as many weather sites, outlets, and individual forecasts as humanly possible.
> 
> I've seen everything from Wednesday night through Thursday will be mostly all mixed precip with rain and sleet, to NNE could get walloped with up to 18 inches of snow (although only FIS said 18 is possible).  There seem to be more folks on the the negative side saying 6 inches is about as much as they'd hope for, but there are several who think 6-12 is a possibility (fingers crossed).
> 
> This all only confirms what I already knew.  Man is not yet sophisticated enough to predict the weather.  LOL.  This 'event" is less than 30 hours away for God's sake.



Depends on which region the forecast is for.  The Adirondacks from the link you mentioned in another post will be further away from the precip field whereas parts of New England will be closer---the forecasts of course will vary.  Hillier terrain can enhance snowfall as opposed to flatter areas--the direction from which the moisture arrives makes a difference.  And we have to consider that the upper level dynamics/mechanics of the first system (Thurs) is not as strong but the moisture supply is decent.  A one-size-fits-all forecast for a variety of areas doesn't work.


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## St. Bear (Jan 10, 2012)

Matt Noyes from NECN is still concerned about mixing, but he could be talking about Southern New England.



> From 4cast perspective, cause for pause is trend for warmer solution at 6K-12K feet in altitude, but colder at surface. More sleet/frz rain?


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## billski (Jan 10, 2012)

*I'm going anyways.*



St. Bear said:


> Matt Noyes from NECN is still concerned about mixing, but he could be talking about Southern New England.



It's hard to read the twit's tweets.  At the same time he tweeted that tonight, he also wrote

"I truly believe that, as of Tuesday evening, there is still too much uncertainty to speak confidently on amounts for interior Massachusetts into Southern New Hampshire, but chances are good there would be a few inches before a change to sleet and rain, and that's what I've indicated in this forecast map.  I feel more confident about a 6"-10" snowfall in Northern New England, with perhaps some 12" amounts.  I also feel confident about a virtual non-event for much of coastal Massachusetts and far Southern New England."

Then he posted this chart:





While most of us are looking for a forecast that we like best, Winnchill said it best.  Too many moving parts to be able to predict microscopic levels of detail.

Most likely I will head out tomorrow, given the ugly transition zone not worthy of being encountered.


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## gpetrics (Jan 10, 2012)

Lionel's 18" is predicated on the secondary low being more powerful than forecast, and entraining lots of Lake moisture, and even then, only in a narrow bullseye. It'd be unfair to paint his call as a flat out 18".


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 11, 2012)

Intellicast is pushing our storm east into Maine...... :uzi:   Bring it back!!!!!







But the single chair guy is calling for 10 - *20*, yes* 20 *("or more") through Friday!

 I cant take this anymore, but given the* positively ridiculous disparity in "predictions"* amongst people who ostensibly know what they're talking about, I'm guessing this ranks high on the degree-of-difficulty in storm predictions.

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/


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## Edd (Jan 11, 2012)

Yikes. I may have to snake out of work for this one.


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## WinnChill (Jan 11, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> I_* cant take this anymore*_, but given the* positively ridiculous disparity in "predictions"* amongst people who ostensibly know what they're talking about, I'm guessing this ranks high on the degree-of-difficulty in storm predictions.
> 
> http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/



Me either.  How about quit making all forecasters out to be a bunch of idiots.  If it was as easy as looking at a single index--like an NAO as your signature suggests--everyone could do it.  It's a very difficult forecast--we're trying.


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## riverc0il (Jan 11, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Me either.  How about quit making all forecasters out to be a bunch of idiots.  If it was as easy as looking at a single index--like an NAO as your signature suggests--everyone could do it.  It's a very difficult forecast--we're trying.


And of course, no one remembers when you are right +90% of the time either. Weather folks take a lot of flack but most forecasts are right far more often than they are wrong and rarely are the forecasts 100% complete and total busts.


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## billski (Jan 11, 2012)

Pretty neat "make your own" forecast for those sparring with the pros.

And if you really want to get on TV, get a hot babe and analyze these.

not enough?


I'm waiting for your forecast now!


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## WinnChill (Jan 11, 2012)

riverc0il said:


> And of course, no one remembers when you are right 90% of the time either. Weather folks take a lot of flack but most forecasts are right far more often than they are wrong and rarely are the forecasts 100% complete and total busts.



Thanks River.  I don't mean to come off crabby but I'm worried about a big time bust on this--plus the coffee is wearing off already.


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## billski (Jan 11, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Me either.  How about quit making all forecasters out to be a bunch of idiots.  If it was as easy as looking at a single index--like an NAO as your signature suggests--everyone could do it.  It's a very difficult forecast--we're trying.



+++++
I'm just heading north.  Hey guys, you picked an outdoor sport.  This is weather.  Things change.  Deal with it!


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## marcski (Jan 11, 2012)

riverc0il said:


> And of course, no one remembers when you are right +90% of the time either. Weather folks take a lot of flack but most forecasts are right far more often than they are wrong and rarely are the forecasts 100% complete and total busts.



Don't they execute weathermen in China if they are wong too many times??  .


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## WinnChill (Jan 11, 2012)

billski said:


> +++++
> I'm just heading north.  Hey guys, you picked an outdoor sport.  This is weather.  Things change.  Deal with it!



Safe travels Bill!  Send some storm reports when you get a chance...I'll be curious how this pans out up there...particularly Friday with that second batch.


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## hammer (Jan 11, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Thanks River.  I don't mean to come off crabby but I'm worried about a big time bust on this--plus the coffee is wearing off already.


What's the confidence of a pattern shift with this storm?  Seems like many are getting excited about the potential for a few inches of snow but what I really want to see is an end to the persistent above-average temps...


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## billski (Jan 11, 2012)

Source


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## billski (Jan 11, 2012)

Total snowfall forecast, NWS collected


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## WinnChill (Jan 11, 2012)

billski said:


> Source



That looks about right.  That southeasterly flow should enhance Loon/Waterville through Attitash/Sunday River/Sugarloaf.  Then Friday, the favorable area should shift towards southern VT through the southern Whites.


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## WinnChill (Jan 11, 2012)

hammer said:


> What's the confidence of a pattern shift with this storm?  Seems like many are getting excited about the potential for a few inches of snow but what I really want to see is an end to the persistent above-average temps...



Confidence in the storm is one thing--so far, confidence in accumulations will usually be low with any kind of mixing event such as Thursday....we're confident mixing will occur, but to what degree is questionable which affects accumulations dramatically.  

Then there's the overall pattern shift.  We're gradually working into a more favorable pattern as far as temps are concerned--temps should stabilize and stay seasonably cold the rest of this month.  Storm tracks could be better--still somewhat _through_ the region rather than curling just _south_ of the region--still some mixing events possible but should be minimized.  Hope that helps.


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## hammer (Jan 11, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Confidence in the storm is one thing--so far, confidence in accumulations will usually be low with any kind of mixing event such as Thursday....we're confident mixing will occur, but to what degree is questionable which affects accumulations dramatically.
> 
> Then there's the overall pattern shift.  We're gradually working into a more favorable pattern as far as temps are concerned--temps should stabilize and stay seasonably cold the rest of this month.  Storm tracks could be better--still somewhat _through_ the region rather than curling just _south_ of the region--still some mixing events possible but should be minimized.  Hope that helps.


That would be good...hopefully we will avoid a "January thaw" this year.


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## gladerider (Jan 11, 2012)

Heading up to Whiteface for the weekend Friday evening. What do you think will happen in the Northern ADK? Thanx.


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## WinnChill (Jan 11, 2012)

gladerider said:


> Heading up to Whiteface for the weekend Friday evening. What do you think will happen in the Northern ADK? Thanx.



Rough estimate for now (gotta head out for a bit)--less precip but further away from mixing Thurs--prob a few inches.  Friday another few inches possible...so ballparking about half a foot total.  I'll check back later after looking into it a bit more.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 11, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> How about quit making all forecasters out to be a bunch of idiots.



Good grief, chill out (no pun intended) for heaven sake .  No one's making "all forecasters out to be a bunch of idiots".



riverc0il said:


> And of course, no one remembers when you are right +90% of the time either.



Well if I'm admittedly guilty of hyperbole, that's exaggeration there as well.  The science of weather prediction isn't to the point where they're even anywhere near close to getting "90%" of these storm events right.  And if there's a subportion of the population that's keenly aware of this fact, it's skiers/boarders.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 11, 2012)

billski said:


> Source



i like that map


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## billski (Jan 11, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> Good grief, chill out (no pun intended) for heaven sake .  No one's making "all forecasters out to be a bunch of idiots".
> 
> 
> 
> Well if I'm admittedly guilty of hyperbole, that's exaggeration there as well.  The science of weather prediction isn't to the point where they're even anywhere near close to getting "90%" of these storm events right.  And if there's a subportion of the population that's keenly aware of this fact, it's skiers/boarders.




Just gimmie the #@$%#^&^*^&* snow!
anywhere, any timer


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## Glenn (Jan 11, 2012)

A bit of snow before a holiday weekend would be pefect for a lot of areas. I hope it happens!


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## ScottySkis (Jan 11, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Me either.  How about quit making all forecasters out to be a bunch of idiots.  If it was as easy as looking at a single index--like an NAO as your signature suggests--everyone could do it.  It's a very difficult forecast--we're trying.


I watch these weather guys are great. At predictions for us and Mr winn has helped me have some great powder days for sure


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## gladerider (Jan 11, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Rough estimate for now (gotta head out for a bit)--less precip but further away from mixing Thurs--prob a few inches.  Friday another few inches possible...so ballparking about half a foot total.  I'll check back later after looking into it a bit more.



thanks winnchill


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 11, 2012)

I'm really hoping this doesn't turn into a half snow/half freezing rain event.


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## riverc0il (Jan 11, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> The science of weather prediction isn't to the point where they're even anywhere near close to getting "90%" of these storm events right.


I never said 90% of storm events.


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## billski (Jan 11, 2012)

Reporting in from base camp Lyndon. Motels are booked solid with skiers. Maybe 1" snow on Terra firma presently. C
ie


Alien convoys of Electric. Recovery vehicles hdeuce trucks have been identified by our forward spotters. Pre positioning for operation Snowbound beginning at 0900
double assault fire arms loaded and ready.  Hill 21 (known locally as Burke Mtn) is the primary objective. 
Sgt. Landslide reporting 2009 hours


Sgt.


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## billski (Jan 11, 2012)

Thurs does. Not appear to be a ski day.  Big honkin winds until thurs night


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## riverc0il (Jan 11, 2012)

billski said:


> Thurs does. Not appear to be a ski day.  Big honkin winds until thurs night


Dude... Poma. Of course it is a ski day!


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 11, 2012)

billski said:


> Thurs does. Not appear to be a ski day. * Big honkin winds until thurs night*



Some are calling for strong winds for NVT Saturday and Sunday too.  Hopefully that isnt so.


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## billski (Jan 11, 2012)

riverc0il said:


> Dude... Poma. Of course it is a ski day!


 
eh, those are not gusts. 50_60 mph sustained. Are you  nuts?? I sure don't want the snot blown out of me. Anyways, I'm workbound for most of Thursday. I plan to eat icicles for dinner. 

we'll see in the am.


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 11, 2012)

Bill, honestly I think tomorrow may be your best ski day. Snow in the morning before changing to mix/freezing rain late in the day. Burke does not get the wind that other places get. 
Friday could be crusty depending on how much freezing rain we get. Then Saturday is in the freezer.


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## WinnChill (Jan 12, 2012)

from_the_NEK said:


> I'm really hoping this doesn't turn into a half snow/half freezing rain event.



Sort of, but the saving grace is that there will be a lull in precip when snow levels elevate (tonight/Friday AM) so icy mix, mainly showers, should be fairly light before temps cool back down on Friday.  That second batch should switch back over to snow showers fairly quickly for your area.  Finger crossed!


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## billski (Jan 12, 2012)

from_the_NEK said:


> Bill, honestly I think tomorrow may be your best ski day. Snow in the morning before changing to mix/freezing rain late in the day. Burke does not get the wind that other places get.
> Friday could be crusty depending on how much freezing rain we get. Then Saturday is in the freezer.



dusting with Light snow,calm at 445 am  
ski in AM only in between calls.  we'll see.
cars are flying down local roads.
forecasting seems to be deteriorating

I'm praying that 3200 elevation will make a diff


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## WinnChill (Jan 12, 2012)

billski said:


> dusting with Light snow,calm at 445 am
> ski in AM only in between calls.  we'll see.
> cars are flying down local roads.
> forecasting seems to be deteriorating
> ...



Yep, AM seems to be best...light winds/snow now but winds pick up later today.  Elevation will certainly make a difference.  Screamin summit winds for many areas...low level winds (between 3000-5000) will be quite strong.  Burke's summit will be howlin but northwest facing slope should help protect.


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## riverc0il (Jan 12, 2012)

billski said:


> eh, those are not gusts. 50_60 mph sustained. Are you  nuts?? I sure don't want the snot blown out of me. Anyways, I'm workbound for most of Thursday. I plan to eat icicles for dinner.
> 
> we'll see in the am.


I trust NOAA less and less every year. Less than 24 hours later, that link you posted now shows 32 mph sustained max during skiing hours, only 16 mph first thing in the morning. Burke is very protected from the winds. You'd be a fool not to be up there skiing today.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 12, 2012)

billski said:


> dusting with Light snow,calm at 445 am
> ski in AM only in between calls.  we'll see.
> cars are flying down local roads.
> forecasting seems to be deteriorating
> ...


I think you should ski your up their and its snowing if winds get nasty coffee break


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## psyflyer (Jan 12, 2012)

about an inch here at Burke and snowing...hopefully the rest of the day.  I'll take it.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 12, 2012)

Mount Snow is saying they get about 3 inches of snow so far Yahoo


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## UVSHTSTRM (Jan 12, 2012)

Dry slot setting in here in the Upper Valley (Claremont), got about two inches of snow, the wind was strong, the temp dropped and the snow shut off.  I am guessing upslope should help for the hills, but looks like a coating of white and that will be about it here in the lowlands.  On the other hand, looks like Maine and the central spine of the Greens and Whites should do well.


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## St. Bear (Jan 12, 2012)

See, this is why I do all my skiing on holiday weekends.  That way, all the masses break up the crust for me.


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## wa-loaf (Jan 12, 2012)

Still snowing just west of 495 at 9:30.


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## gmcunni (Jan 12, 2012)

Scotty said:


> Mount Snow is saying they get about 3 inches of snow so far Yahoo



i am grateful for the snow but how pathetic are we that 3 inches makes us all so giddy?


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 12, 2012)

gmcunni said:


> i am grateful for the snow* but how pathetic are we that 3 inches makes us all so giddy?*



  It's like watching a starving person gobble down a few crackers.   

But predictions are still all over the map on this 1, 2 punch storm, so my psychological mantra is to trick myself into believing the 4 to 6 inch ones, so I can be positively surprised if 12 inches of snow drops.


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## billski (Jan 12, 2012)

riverc0il said:


> I trust NOAA less and less every year. Less than 24 hours later, that link you posted now shows 32 mph sustained max during skiing hours, only 16 mph first thing in the morning. Burke is very protected from the winds. You'd be a fool not to be up there skiing today.


   I would love to get out today, but it probably won't happen,.   There is too much real work going on today.  Bummer.  It just started snowing again,.


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## psyflyer (Jan 12, 2012)

Snowing heavy now on Burke.  Another inch since about an hour ago, starting to blow also but not outrageous.  Heading out shortly and see exactly what we dealing with...


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## billski (Jan 12, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> It's like watching a starving person gobble down a few crackers.
> 
> But predictions are still all over the map on this 1, 2 punch storm, so my psychological mantra is to trick myself into believing the 4 to 6 inch ones, so I can be positively surprised if 12 inches of snow drops.


 
I understand that Ullr and Voodoo Lady had a tryst last night.:blink:

That and my magical gnome here in snow country should bring something "interesting" :beer:


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## ScottySkis (Jan 12, 2012)

billski said:


> I would love to get out today, but it probably won't happen,.   There is too much real work going on today.  Bummer.  It just started snowing again,.



too bad your like their maybe afternoon


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## wa-loaf (Jan 12, 2012)

Scotty said:


> too bad your like their maybe afternoon



Dude, is English not your native language?


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## St. Bear (Jan 12, 2012)

wa-loaf said:


> Dude, is English not your native language?



Better question, does he have any dehumidifiers?


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## billski (Jan 12, 2012)

snow has gotten a lot heavier now.  Now, if could only cancel this afternoon's meetings.  I don't think an inch or two will make too much diff in ski-ability .  I will get a sail and get out first thing Friday.


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## nekweather (Jan 12, 2012)

*Holy Wind!*

Haha - I think it was Billski that was talking about winds...I'm on the western side of the Greens and where already starting to get down-sloping wind gusts off the mountains. Check out the Mountain forecast from my website here - Check out Jay Peak's forecast winds for later this afternoon! 

http://www.nekweather.net/wxMountainfcst.php


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 12, 2012)

Scotty said:


> too bad your like their maybe afternoon



I tried using Google Translate, but it didnt help me with this.



nekweather said:


> Check out Jay Peak's forecast winds for later this afternoon!



I'm more worried about winds this weekend, as in, are they going to make skiing un-fun?   There were some calling for 30+mph for N.VT as of yesterday (havent looked today).


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## John W (Jan 12, 2012)

Bgomez - Just bundle up and cover up..  You will be fine... Skiing in the wind completely covered would be more fun then I am going to have at my sister in law's 30th bday which I am unfortunately not being allowed to miss!!!!!


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## ScottySkis (Jan 12, 2012)

Plattkill got 3 inches all snow


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 12, 2012)

Scotty said:


> Plattkill got 3 inches all snow



Stratton is reporting 6 inches already!

 And Jay Peak is still claiming,_ "Forecasters calling for a minimum of a foot by Saturday am-possibility of more is a probability_", though I'm wondering if perhaps they're not being a bit optimistic?   Other than the guy the Weathering Heights guy they use for their webpage, I cant find 1 foot+ predictions for Jay (perhaps I'm just missing them).


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## watchoutbelow (Jan 12, 2012)

Gore says they have been getting snow only all day.


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## UVSHTSTRM (Jan 12, 2012)

wa-loaf said:


> Dude, is English not your native language?



 :smile:


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## billski (Jan 12, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> Stratton is reporting 6 inches already!
> 
> And Jay Peak is still claiming,_ "Forecasters calling for a minimum of a foot by Saturday am-possibility of more is a probability_", though I'm wondering if perhaps they're not being a bit optimistic? Other than the guy the Weathering Heights guy they use for their webpage, I cant find 1 foot+ predictions for Jay (perhaps I'm just missing them).


 

will be interesting to see how elevevations handle the drizz tomorrow and 2night


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## billski (Jan 12, 2012)

watchoutbelow said:


> Gore says they have been getting snow only all day.


 

ditto here , save for a fewi brief moments of ncp about noon time.
Posse forming for Friday....


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## Black Phantom (Jan 12, 2012)

billski said:


> ditto here , save for a fewi brief moments of ncp about noon time.
> Posse forming for Friday....



Are you up north already billski? Are your legs going to be able to take more than an hour in fresh snow?


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## billski (Jan 12, 2012)

I got here last night to beat the transition zone.  Unfortunately for me, I've had to work, serious work all day.  I'll go over to Tamamrak (?) tonight and ski/partee on Friday. Lots of blower pow, abouy 4" today, I sadlyu missed.


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## psyflyer (Jan 12, 2012)

Rode burke all day.  6 inches at least throughout the day.  Rode many.glades and unmarked.  Some sketchiness but overall a mini POW day.  Real fun.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 12, 2012)

billski said:


> will be interesting to see how elevevations handle the drizz tomorrow and 2night



Rain is a 4-letter word.   Hopefully it stays cold enough.




psyflyer said:


> Rode burke all day.  6 inches at least throughout the day.  Rode many.glades and unmarked.  Some sketchiness but overall a mini POW day.  Real fun.



Yay, love to hear the 1st-hand reports.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 12, 2012)

An update from the single chair guy, he's still extremely optimistic this could be a decently big one in the C.VT when all's-said-and-done.



> Snow should continue through much of the day and could at times become heavy during the evening Friday.* 6-12 inches of powder Friday and Friday night is a conservative estimate. I would not at all be surprised if we outperform. *A lot of the NWS forecasts will be tailored to valley locations where accumulations will be substantially less. Right now for instance the NWS forecast for Washington County says 1-3 Friday with an 80 percent chance of snow Friday night.
> 
> Snow showers should continue into Saturday but it will be cold and windy. Wind should taper off somewhat Sunday and completely by Monday although temperatures will be wintry dropping well below zero overnight and only rising into the teens during the day.



http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

Though the Weathering Heights guy is backing off his totals for N.VT, saying C.VT and S.VT will pick up more.


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## deadheadskier (Jan 12, 2012)

Hard to say what Gunstock got today with the way the wind was whipping.  5-6" I'd guess with some very nice drifting on Redhat and Cannonball.  Not a deep day by any means, but certainly a powder day and a lot of fun.


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## xwhaler (Jan 12, 2012)

Gunstock is reporting 8" per SkiNH fwiw


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## Ski Diva (Jan 12, 2012)

6 to 8 inches at Okemo today. Horribly windy at the top, but once you got out of the wind, some terrific skiing. Especially since it was pretty empty.


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## billski (Jan 12, 2012)

nekweather said:


> Haha - I think it was Billski that was talking about winds...I'm on the western side of the Greens and where already starting to get down-sloping wind gusts off the mountains. Check out the Mountain forecast from my website here - Check out Jay Peak's forecast winds for later this afternoon!
> 
> http://www.nekweather.net/wxMountainfcst.php



Great site used it a few times today. Thanks!


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## billski (Jan 12, 2012)

Went to taramack grille tonight. Walked the snow around the base.  Pwdr and pp for sure. 
It was a pleasure to drive on snowpacked roads this year.


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## gladerider (Jan 13, 2012)

can anyone in whiteface/lake placid area share how much accumulation you got so far?


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## abc (Jan 13, 2012)

Anybody care to guess whether the roads will be in bad shape I-91 north of the split (with 89)?


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 13, 2012)

abc said:


> Anybody care to guess whether the roads will be in bad shape I-91 north of the split (with 89)?



This storm isnt all that major, and they do a great job in general on 89, I wouldnt worry.


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## WinnChill (Jan 13, 2012)

abc said:


> Anybody care to guess whether the roads will be in bad shape I-91 north of the split (with 89)?



Mixed showers have been brief and light so far but the fun is pivoting into SVT right now--expecting some bursts of mixed showers to snow squalls to liven things up.  I'm sure DOT road crews have been able stay ahead of shower activity this morning but heavier showers/squalls this afternoon could be overwhelming in many spots.  We'll see.


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## abc (Jan 13, 2012)

Winn, what's the time frame of the heavy squalls? Late afternoon/early evening? Or late into the night?


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## WinnChill (Jan 13, 2012)

abc said:


> Winn, what's the time frame of the heavy squalls? Late afternoon/early evening? Or late into the night?



They're moving in across SVT right now and will be pivoting north and eastward the rest of this afternoon/evening.  Even though this 2nd round isn't grabbing headlines, these showers/squalls may have some kick.


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## UVSHTSTRM (Jan 13, 2012)

abc said:


> Anybody care to guess whether the roads will be in bad shape I-91 north of the split (with 89)?



My wife travels N-91 to S-89 everyday and today was no different.  We got some freezing rain/sleet etc over night and had a glaze on everything, but the roads were treated early and often and she said the roads were just wet, nothing major.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 13, 2012)

Snow is good,  i don't think vt does remove snow as good as they use to on I89


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## Glenn (Jan 13, 2012)

Scotty said:


> Snow is good,  i don't think vt does remove snow as good as they use to on I89



I beleive they changed from a "clear roads" policy to a "safe road" policy a few years back.


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## WinnChill (Jan 13, 2012)

Scotty said:


> Snow is good,  i don't think vt does remove snow as good as they use to on I89



Does VT brine their Interstates or do they stick with plow-and-sand?  NH DOT still tries to brine parts of theirs but that requires a lot of lead time.  It was likely appropriate for last night's/this mornings showers--we'll see how it holds up today.


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## billski (Jan 13, 2012)

Roads are fine. Just watch for black ice after sundown. 
We have everything this am. Sno hail moderated rain all changing every 15. Mins. 
Clear at base clouded at summit -heavy.  Temps 32. All day. Winds calm. Best trails are ungroomed and woods. 
Groomed trails arre hardpack with crust of ice. I might as well fall on concrete. 
Having fun. Club paetee at four.


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## billski (Jan 13, 2012)

Snow plow driver assigned to lower i91 Vermont. Said yhet switched to brine two years ago.  Time to ski.  Bye!


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## abc (Jan 13, 2012)

Where did you skied, Bill?


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 13, 2012)

abc said:


> Where did you skied, Bill?



Bill is at Burke Mountain


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 13, 2012)

1)  I'm currently jealous of Bill
2) I am going to be asking people, "Where did you skied", all season long.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 13, 2012)

Platty got six inches today


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## billski (Jan 13, 2012)

It. Dumped here all all afternoon.  I brought the gnome. That's why...


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## billski (Jan 13, 2012)

I are skied at ekrub one day.


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 13, 2012)

billski said:


> I are skied at ekrub one day.



Are you drunk posting from the Bear Den again?


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## WinnChill (Jan 13, 2012)

billski said:


> It. Dumped here all all afternoon.  I brought the gnome. That's why...



How much fell today?  I forecasted another 4-7" of snowfall today--wondering if I should've gone more.


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## riverc0il (Jan 13, 2012)

from_the_NEK said:


> Are you drunk posting from the Bear Den_* again*_?


AGAIN?????!!

:lol:


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## billski (Jan 13, 2012)

riverc0il said:


> AGAIN?????!!
> 
> :lol:



Best lies are made that way!
4to6". Hard to to tell due to rain. 
Grooming tonight should  clean up well.

Where are y'all goin this weekend?


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## C-Rex (Jan 13, 2012)

Going up to sunapee tomorrow, mostly because I have some free passes. Their site said they got 7" and the park is up to 30 features.  I'm hoping the MLK crowd will be a little lighter there than the southern VT mountains. Also hoping that what crowd is there doesn't like the cold and stays in the lodges.  

Anyone been up there lately or live nearby? I'd love some first hand accounts.


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## Warp Daddy (Jan 13, 2012)

8 inches down after an inch of ice.

 High winds  expected tonite , cable out all day , schools and stores closed , roads horrible , trees falling  encrusted with an inch of Ice and 8 inches of heavy snow and 35-40 mph gusts, 1200 still  w/o power,  power may BE BACK BY MIDNITE, no unnecessary travel 

-- Zero tonite-- BUT I'm grinning--, WE GOT POWER AND-------------------gonna b GREAT skiing !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! But 19 below zero tomorrow nite


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## ScottySkis (Jan 13, 2012)

Warp Daddy said:


> 8 inches down after an inch of ice.
> 
> High winds  expected tonite , cable out all day , schools and stores closed , roads horrible , trees falling  encrusted with an inch of Ice and 8 inches of heavy snow and 35-40 mph gusts, 1200 still  w/o power,  power may BE BACK BY MIDNITE, no unnecessary travel
> 
> -- Zero tonite-- BUT I'm grinning--, WE GOT POWER AND-------------------gonna b GREAT skiing !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! But 19 below zero tomorrow nite



That is cold but snow should stay great


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## ski_resort_observer (Jan 13, 2012)

It was kinda a wild day here at the Bush today. After 4-6" yesterday the day started out well. Dropped a bunch of ropes, after a short bout of mixed it started snowing again. the morning was awesome then the winds hit had to shut some lifts down but it kept snowing. It was tough hiking to my car after the day was done. Maybe another 4-6" today, tomorrow is supposed to be pretty chilly.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 13, 2012)

Mount snow got nine inches of snow today


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## Tooth (Jan 13, 2012)

I'll be at Sugarloaf. Winds howling pretty good. Snowing. I hope we get accumulations through the night. NOAA calling 3-7. Have fun out there. We need snow for when you all come up here.


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## jrmagic (Jan 13, 2012)

Wow I'm getting psyched for some cold powder skiing tomorrow at Magic!


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## nelsapbm (Jan 13, 2012)

It is dumping on the west side of 'bush & MRG right now. Tomorrow should be a good day for sure.


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## Glenn (Jan 13, 2012)

Scotty said:


> Mount snow got nine inches of snow today



Winter Storm Warning over night. Calling for another 6-12" of snow.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 14, 2012)

Glenn said:


> Winter Storm Warning over night. Calling for another 6-12" of snow.


Sounds like some great powder day tomorrow enjoy


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## Glenn (Jan 15, 2012)

From what i heard, it was. ; ). We were blacked out for the holiday weekend. We opted to go for a hike and i took my ATV out for a snowy ride. Good times.


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