# Winter 2019/2020



## slatham (Sep 12, 2019)

Need to crank the engine on this forum!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGZJ8tSFLDs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIxelyZBysI

I actually have no idea who these guys are. I like the fact that they agree, and I obviously like their conclusions. The 2nd one has some fairly solid analysis too.

And they mesh with Weatherbell (although we have to recognize the cold/snow bias of Weatherbell).

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Winter_2019_20_Snowfall.png

You'll have to go to Weatherbell to see the details.

Its all about water temps. Lets see how they evolve this fall.


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## Not Sure (Sep 12, 2019)

https://www.weatherbell.com/weatherbell-press/meteorologist-joe-bastardi-s-winter-prediction

Joe messed up last year but at least he admitted his mistake.

edit the video was last years


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## slatham (Sep 13, 2019)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> https://www.weatherbell.com/weatherbell-press/meteorologist-joe-bastardi-s-winter-prediction
> 
> Joe messed up last year but at least he admitted his mistake.
> 
> edit the video was last years



Yes, yes he (they) did. Hence the comment on them being naturally biased to cold.


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## ScottySkis (Sep 22, 2019)

https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2019/09/my-preliminary-look-at-winter-2019-2020.html?m=1
Looking good forecast from very reliable sources
https://www.facebook.com/254982781215764/posts/2365951096785578/


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## Smellytele (Sep 23, 2019)

All I know is I have a back yard now that is full of acorns. Walking on the back yard is like walking on ball bearings. The most I have ever seen. Old wives tale says this means a lot of snow coming. More like just a shit load of squirrels next year.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## Whitey (Oct 6, 2019)

Smellytele said:


> All I know is I have a back yard now that is full of acorns. Walking on the back yard is like walking on ball bearings. The most I have ever seen. Old wives tale says this means a lot of snow coming. More like just a shit load of squirrels next year.
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



I've heard that one too.   And my yard is the same way as yours, plus hickory nuts.   I was at a friends the other day and the acorns were literally raining down from the trees.    I've never seen them come down that thick like that.


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## bdfreetuna (Oct 8, 2019)

July and August 2019 were some of the nicest and sunniest weather, with localized rain showers and "sun showers" frequently, compared to what we've had in years/decade. Bluest skies I've seen in as long. I didn't see a contrail last more than a minute before fully completely dissipating for a full 2 months. 4 days out of the week there would be spontaneous localized rain showers and very hard to predict.

Right before Hurricane Dorian the Wx / climate control ops made a big move with the artificial cirrus on the east coast to stabilize and dessicate the lower troposphere with the aersolation we've seen increasingly over the last decade plus. The result was Dorian sitting over Grand Bahama for 3 days, even moving slightly backwards on it's course briefly, before taking a 90 degree turn toward Nova Scotia. I don't intend to explain weather warfare but the reality is we're at least occasionally engaged in it.

In any case, this summer was a fantastic summer for wildlife and plants. The frequent rain showers and unfiltered sunlight over the course of just 2 months led to a comeback for Honey Bees, and my observations were that the insect and plant life were thriving like unseen in many years.

In the west/rockies it's fully accepted that water management bureaus and ski areas work together to "seed" regions with fleet of airplanes and ground-based devices, with the intent purpose of affecting snow pack. Maybe we should be asking these folks what kind of winter we should expect, especially now that we have big players like Vail operating on our turf.


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## NYDB (Oct 8, 2019)

bdfreetuna said:


> July and August 2019 were some of the nicest and sunniest weather, with localized rain showers and "sun showers" frequently, compared to what we've had in years/decade. Bluest skies I've seen in as long. I didn't see a contrail last more than a minute before fully completely dissipating for a full 2 months. 4 days out of the week there would be spontaneous localized rain showers and very hard to predict.
> 
> Right before Hurricane Dorian the Wx / climate control ops made a big move with the artificial cirrus on the east coast to stabilize and dessicate the lower troposphere with the aersolation we've seen increasingly over the last decade plus. The result was Dorian sitting over Grand Bahama for 3 days, even moving slightly backwards on it's course briefly, before taking a 90 degree turn toward Nova Scotia. I don't intend to explain weather warfare but the reality is we're at least occasionally engaged in it.
> 
> ...



Wow.  I need to hear more about this.  sounds interesting


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## Not Sure (Oct 8, 2019)

NY DirtBag said:


> Wow.  I need to hear more about this.  sounds interesting



Troll level 1000 . Big Kahuna


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## dblskifanatic (Oct 8, 2019)

https://www.denverpost.com/2018/02/26/cloud-seeding-drought-west/

A bit about cloud seeding mostly driven by California, Arizona, and Nevada states that are concerned about a lack to snow melt in the Rockies.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## slatham (Oct 22, 2019)

Hope this plays out. Some other maps - not shown - show the delta vs last year, and for the NE its pretty consistent that they expect it to be colder. Lets hope those colder temps coincide with storms. If you recall, there were a lot of storms last season that changed over to non-snow. If its a bit colder in those situations......


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## Not Sure (Oct 24, 2019)

https://www.weatherbell.com/

Joe says this fall weather  fits 2013-14 Winter analogs ...we'll see .


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## skiur (Oct 24, 2019)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> https://www.weatherbell.com/
> 
> Joe says this fall weather  fits 2013-14 Winter analogs ...we'll see .




Refresh my memory, was that a good year?


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## Not Sure (Oct 24, 2019)

skiur said:


> Refresh my memory, was that a good year?



Yes , very for Pa. anyway . I actually skied BC in Pa.  Weekly refreshes with little melting .


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## slatham (Oct 25, 2019)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> https://www.weatherbell.com/
> 
> Joe says this fall weather  fits 2013-14 Winter analogs ...we'll see .



Actually I think its 2014/15 that's the analog year. That winter did not have huge amounts of snow, but in SoVT it did not rain or thaw from the Sunday of MLK weekend (turned to snow overnight for 6" powder on Monday) into the first week of March. There was a Sunday/Monday storm in mid Feb that gave Magic a total of 14" and the woods were thigh deep dry pow from the storm plus 4+ weeks of accumulation. Closest to Colorado skiing I've had on the east coast (meaning deep dry powder that was't from just one storm).

We also had a 12" storm the Wednesday of thanksgiving week. Although not in my notes, I think that was also the November of record breaking cold where snowmaking terrain expansion was more like December.


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## Pez (Oct 25, 2019)

Wasn’t 14/15 the year that Blue Hill was the powder capital of North America?  I feel like that year MA had a ton of snow.  

As long as it isn’t 15/16 I’m good.   


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## slatham (Oct 26, 2019)

I stand corrected. While one of the analogs for the WINTER is 14/15, Joe is using NOVEMBER 2013 as an analog for the month.

Models coming together for a cold shot next weekend and into the following week. I hope it verifies.


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## Not Sure (Nov 17, 2019)

Bullish Winter  forecast 2013-14 analog (9:45)


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## ScottySkis (Nov 24, 2019)

From Rebecca Facebook forecast for Thanksgiving
Week
She been pretty accurate last few years since I started following her
https://www.facebook.com/254982781215764/posts/2492512660796087/
It’s Thanksgiving week

We have the current Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event going on. That is tied in to what is about to occur and well into the long range. 

I’ve been talking about the potential Wednesday Thursday storm for a week now. I know many have travel plans.
The storm around Thanksgiving is going to not only disrupt travel plans, it’s going to kick start high latitude blocking and an active storm pattern.  Rain or snow over this time will depend on temperature profiles.  

Tuesday into Wednesday a storm will track through across the Midwest and then move over New York State and northern New England. The system will bring rain/sleet/freezing rain/snow, especially across New York State and New England.  Mostly rain for Pennsylvania, and the Middle Atlantic. With Upstate New York and Northern into Central New England seeing rain (perhaps some mix or snow if it’s cold enough) These areas would most likely see a change over to snow, with the passage of the cold front. Rain/snow will hang around into Thursday. The air will cool off quite a bit behind the front.  The biggest concern with this system is looking to be wind. Wind gust of 40-50 mph, with perhaps damaging wind gust even higher, especially for higher elevations.  Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade balloons could end up being a casualty of the winds on Thanksgiving Day. The blustery winds and chilly conditions will hang around for Black Friday as well. 

Another storm is likely over the coming weekend into Next Monday
. 
The pattern going forward is going to be very active. There are indications that we’re going to see another SSW during November. So, this could make the end of December and January quite cold. 

The first 5-10 days of December could see a potent storm, with the blocking that looks to be very prevalent, it could be a very interesting storm.  The pattern looks to be cold over the next few weeks……so some snow storms are not a big stretch. The GFS is very bullish on snow prospects moving into December.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 25, 2019)

ScottySkis said:


> From Rebecca Facebook forecast for Thanksgiving
> Week
> She been pretty accurate last few years since I started following her
> https://www.facebook.com/254982781215764/posts/2492512660796087/
> ...



Everything is pointing toward Cold and a lot of it. 
We have the current Sudden Stratospheric Warming event going on. Which is doing its job.  We will be seeing a lot of blocking over Greenland. 

The SOI is still falling. 

SOI values for 25 Nov, 2019
Average SOI for last 30 days -9.60 
Average SOI for last 90 days -9.49 
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -13.62

Last winter the SOI didn't become this negative until late in the season.............So it could be trying to tell us something. 

This is making the Sunday Monday storm, a very possible snow storm, for much of our region. With the Blocking the cold will be very slow to depart. This could result in Snow/ice down to the Mason Dixon Line.  

Then we have the second possible SSW later in December.    The MJO will be a big part of what happens. The JMA and GFS doesn’t allow the MJO to cycle through the warm phases. But the Euro does with the MJO rotating through phases 4,5, and 6. These are warm phases this time of year, The Euro is supporting my idea of a warmer December;that I laid out in my winter outlook. But the Euro has been doing poorly with the long-range temperatures … much worse than the GFS and JMA. We will see, but based on the current teleconnections, a very cold December is quite possible. 

The pattern over the next 2-3 weeks is looking to be very active.  The colder air means we have a better chance of seeing more in the way of snow instead of the other way around. 

The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies says cold. Here is a look at current SSTs. When you see anomalies look like this, you’re thinking cold.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 29, 2019)

From Jessica Facebook forecaster
Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago

I hope all y'all had an enjoyable Thanksgiving 

Today will be dry, but cold and a bit breezy.  Friday will start out Okay, but a storm will be in the Midwest. This storm is currently on a track similar to many of the other storms of late, but the setup is a little different.  We’re going to have blocking high pressure in Eastern Canada back into the Great Lakes. This is going to force our storm’s energy to turn south and east.  The transfer of energy will allow a secondary storm to form off the Mid Atlantic Coast.  This transfer looks to start later Sunday morning. 

The track and extent of the cold air will be a major factor in who sees what. But based on a blend of the American and European models…. this is looking very possible.

The General Idea:

Rain will move into southwest Pennsylvania late Saturday afternoon/evening into Saturday night. During the overnight (1-2 AM) Sunday morning, rain will change over to freezing rain (ZR) for western into central Pennsylvania (southwest Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh should see mainly rain). As we move into Sunday morning ZR will be falling over Northern Pennsylvania into western New York State.  The ZR looks to fall for several hours. This could lead to quite a bit of ice accretion (0.10 to 0.25 inches with localized amounts of 0.50 inches).  During the afternoon snow will be falling over interior New York State, Vermont, into New Hampshire.  and most of southern New England. By Sunday night the coastal low will be wrapping up. And banding will be setting up, right now that looks to be across the eastern Mohawk Valley, the New York Capital District, and across Massachusetts, and most likely back into Northwest Pennsylvania and Southwest New York State (South and east of Syracuse and Utica) (Poconos and the Catskills 6+). The storm will last through Monday into Tuesday morning.  Parts of Eastern New York State (around Albany could be the jackpot), back into Northwest Pennsylvania (Scranton), Southern Vermont Southern New Hampshire, Southern Maine, Massachusetts (Boston 6+) and parts of northern Connecticut look to see fairly significant and plowable snow (6 to 12+ inches).  Snow amounts west and north of these areas will see lower amounts, but areas like State College and the Finger Lakes will still most likely end up with some snow.  Northern New York State, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and northern Maine will see lesser amounts than those to the south. 

This is all subject to change as things evolve.
  This is based on my analysis, for official information go to your local NWS website.

I will have more later this evening and tomorrow.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 29, 2019)

From Jessica Facebook forecaster
Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago
https://www.facebook.com/254982781215764/posts/2502908346423185/
I hope all y'all had an enjoyable Thanksgiving 
https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather/?tsid=0.3873143810869992&source=result
Today will be dry, but cold and a bit breezy.  Friday will start out Okay, but a storm will be in the Midwest. This storm is currently on a track similar to many of the other storms of late, but the setup is a little different.  We’re going to have blocking high pressure in Eastern Canada back into the Great Lakes. This is going to force our storm’s energy to turn south and east.  The transfer of energy will allow a secondary storm to form off the Mid Atlantic Coast.  This transfer looks to start later Sunday morning. 

The track and extent of the cold air will be a major factor in who sees what. But based on a blend of the American and European models…. this is looking very possible.

The General Idea:

Rain will move into southwest Pennsylvania late Saturday afternoon/evening into Saturday night. During the overnight (1-2 AM) Sunday morning, rain will change over to freezing rain (ZR) for western into central Pennsylvania (southwest Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh should see mainly rain). As we move into Sunday morning ZR will be falling over Northern Pennsylvania into western New York State.  The ZR looks to fall for several hours. This could lead to quite a bit of ice accretion (0.10 to 0.25 inches with localized amounts of 0.50 inches).  During the afternoon snow will be falling over interior New York State, Vermont, into New Hampshire.  and most of southern New England. By Sunday night the coastal low will be wrapping up. And banding will be setting up, right now that looks to be across the eastern Mohawk Valley, the New York Capital District, and across Massachusetts, and most likely back into Northwest Pennsylvania and Southwest New York State (South and east of Syracuse and Utica) (Poconos and the Catskills 6+). The storm will last through Monday into Tuesday morning.  Parts of Eastern New York State (around Albany could be the jackpot), back into Northwest Pennsylvania (Scranton), Southern Vermont Southern New Hampshire, Southern Maine, Massachusetts (Boston 6+) and parts of northern Connecticut look to see fairly significant and plowable snow (6 to 12+ inches).  Snow amounts west and north of these areas will see lower amounts, but areas like State College and the Finger Lakes will still most likely end up with some snow.  Northern New York State, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and northern Maine will see lesser amounts than those to the south. 

This is all subject to change as things evolve.
  This is based on my analysis, for official information go to your local NWS website.

I will have more later this evening and tomorrow.


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## kingslug (Nov 29, 2019)

Its going to snow in the Cats..because..i will be there...


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## ScottySkis (Dec 2, 2019)

ScottySkis said:


> From Jessica Facebook forecaster
> Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago
> https://www.facebook.com/254982781215764/posts/2502908346423185/
> I
> ...


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## ScottySkis (Dec 6, 2019)

A fast-moving clipper system moving through the region this morning  will track over New York State and New England, this afternoon and evening. Here is a look at radar from Weather Tap. The snow will make it into eastern Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine this afternoon. This is/will bring New York State and New England.  Much of New York State (north of the southern tier) into central and southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, northern Massachusetts, into Maine will see generally 1-4 inches of snow, with higher elevations seeing a bit more perhaps 6- maybe 8 inches.  The NYS southern tier into northern Pennsylvania and across the rest of Massachusetts back into Southeast New York State south of the NYS Capital District, and central Pennsylvania a Dusting to an inch or so of a mix/snow is likely (The Catskills into the Poconos 1-3 inches is possible) . The rest of the region will see mostly rain.  Most of the precipitation will be exiting the coast later this evening. 

Behind the clipper high pressure will setup, ushering in colder temperatures for tonight into Saturday.  As we approach Sunday southerly winds ahead of another system, will bring warm temperatures, with rain showers for Monday and Tuesday. Both Monday and Tuesday will be quite warm.  A strong cold front will approach late Tuesday, as the cold front moves through rain will change over to a mix / snow.  Winds will become very blustery and temperatures will plummet. Wednesday will see lingering snow showers, especially in higher elevations across New York State and New England.  Winds will stay gusty with cold temperatures.  Thursday will see the cold continue.  Lake Effect Snow, is looking likely for Wednesday and at least Thursday.  Wind direction will determine who sees what, but the typical areas east and southeast of the Great Lakes  will end up with snow…..were the most persistent bands set up significant snow is quite possible.
From my very very reliable forecasters from Facebook Rebecca north east


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## ScottySkis (Dec 6, 2019)

More awesome news from oh Rebecca I think I love your forecasts and accuracy

"I do what to touch on the mid to long range……….

As I said in the earlier post, we will have a strong cold front dropping in Tuesday night into Wednesday. The front will be slow moving, the upper air profile is such that a wave of low pressure could form along the frontal boundary. Looking at the current satellite and radar map, we can see the current clipper moving through the Northeast; we can also see a disturbance moving into northern California and Oregon; this is going to drop south and east as it develops, as we approach mid-week this piece of energy will be near or over the Gulf of Mexico. With the cold front extending deep into the south, low pressure could develop, and then move north and east.  How this tracks will depend on the speed of the trough as it pushes east.

We’re still a week out, so exact details are difficult. But, Tuesday into Wednesday two pieces of energy, one on the northern stream, the other on the Southern stream will have to be watched. Depending on timing, these two pieces could interact as the Northern wave slows down, allowing the Southern wave to catch up and merge. As the trough takes a negative tilt, we could have a storm riding along the coast or just inland of the coast.  With the cold air coming in, an interior snow storm is possible for Midweek into the 2nd half of next week. For the I-95 corridor and Northern Mid Atlantic, rain could change over to some snow, as colder air overtakes the region.   But given the setup there is also a chance the leading trough won't slow down enough for a phase to occur, If this is the case, this becomes a Cutter and moving over the Great Lakes to our west. We have lots of time for this to change one way or the other, right now it’s a watch and see. 

It’s way too soon, to talk impacts; but, I did want to let you know about it. 

The longer range

By Wednesday, we will be in the beginning stages of a major pattern change.  This is tied into the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event; I’ve been talking about. We’re going to see steep ridging develop over Western North America, as the deep trough overtakes much of the Eastern CONUS.  This setup is going to lead to a stormy pattern over the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.   Heading into Mid-Month, I expect to see a very deep trough over the Eastern CONUS, this should extend well into Florida.  Starting around the 10th, It looks to be a robust active pattern, with several systems rotating through.  As expected the Southeast ridge will be extending at times, but I think predominately it will be overall cold as we head toward Christmas…..but the exact timing of the warm and cold shots is unclear at this time. 

Model images from Tropical Tidbits."


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## ScottySkis (Dec 9, 2019)

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## ScottySkis (Dec 11, 2019)

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## ScottySkis (Dec 12, 2019)

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## ScottySkis (Dec 12, 2019)

Another really great Forecaster. 
Matt Facebook for skier and snowboard 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/NortheastSkiology/permalink/454409208555831/


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## ScottySkis (Dec 12, 2019)

Another really great Forecaster. 
Matt Facebook for skier and snowboard 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/NortheastSkiology/permalink/454409208555831/
CHRISTMAS CONDITIONS PREVIEW
Models don't have great visibility going too far out in terms of snow, especially when you are trying to pinpoint light systems with orographic lift on select mountains in full view, but they are often pretty good with temps when you are not on the edge of two air masses.  Attached is the ECMWF 10 day snowfall map as well as the 10 day temperature anomaly map.  Outside of Tuesday's storm, no other big storms are expected through 12/22, but our weather pattern is going to be cold overall, and this includes the warm storm this weekend.  If you put 2 and 2 together, that means later next week will be pretty damn cold.  Snowmaking should deliver a lot of acreage by Christmas, however resorts that rely more on natural snow to build their bases may come up short prior to Christmas.  Keep in mind that 10 days out this is certainly subject to change and it only covers the period through 12/22.

Models do show a number of clipper type disturbances impacting the Northeast, and with orographic lift enhancement, these can easily drop 6+ inches in areas like N-VT with some enhancement over most northern areas.  Medium range models just don't have the resolution to show the full effects of orographic lift, so there will likely be much more snow in these areas than the map shows.  Whether it will be 1 foot or 2 feet is all within the range of possibilities, but outside of the back end to the next storm, and the Tuesday storm, there appears to be a lack of large precipitation drivers over the rest of this 10 day period.

The problem with the pattern after Tuesday is that we're back into western ridging and eastern toughing, and storms just won't have a chance to dig south and amplify up the coast.  During this 10 day period, groomers should become pretty outstanding if that's your flavor.  With small additional amounts of snow and daily grooming, the surface will become quite smooth and fine.  This pattern however likely changes around Christmas and that should bring more variability in the air masses, and storms.  That doesn't necessarily mean rain, though that's clearly within the realm of possibilities.  

So my predictions for Christmas week are that snowmaking terrain should be pretty well along and no one will be missing any targets without operational issues holding them back.  Natural snow terrain is still an open question, but there is no indication yet that expectations should be set high.  Surface conditions can vary day by day as we saw early this week, so you really can't predict that this far out what they will be during Christmas week, but chances are that the pattern will notably change from the solidly cold one and active weather will likely return.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 13, 2019)

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## ScottySkis (Dec 14, 2019)

ScottySkis said:


> Another really great Forecaster.
> Matt Facebook for skier and snowboard
> https://www.facebook.com/groups/NortheastSkiology/permalink/454409208555831/
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## ScottySkis (Dec 14, 2019)

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## ScottySkis (Dec 15, 2019)

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## ScottySkis (Dec 15, 2019)

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## ScottySkis (Dec 16, 2019)

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## ScottySkis (Dec 17, 2019)

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## ScottySkis (Dec 17, 2019)

ScottySkis said:


> Another really great Forecaster.
> Matt Facebook for skier and snowboard
> https://www.facebook.com/groups/NortheastSkiology/permalink/454409208555831/
> CHRISTMAS CONDITIONS PREVIEW
> ...


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## Not Sure (Dec 17, 2019)

Thanks Scotty
Tomorrow could be tricky driving with heavy squalls . Over under for chain reaction crash 25 .


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## ScottySkis (Dec 18, 2019)

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## Not Sure (Dec 19, 2019)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Thanks Scotty
> Tomorrow could be tricky driving with heavy squalls . Over under for chain reaction crash 25 .



https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ac...ge-stretch-of-i-80-in-pennsylvania/647902/amp

Sad , seems this happens every year. I received 2 weather alerts on my phone which were pretty accurate timing wise.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 19, 2019)

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## ScottySkis (Dec 29, 2019)

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## ScottySkis (Jan 26, 2020)

ScottySkis said:


> Another really great Forecaster.
> Matt Facebook for skier and snowboard
> https://www.facebook.com/groups/NortheastSkiology/permalink/454409208555831/
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## ScottySkis (Jan 27, 2020)

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## ScottySkis (Feb 2, 2020)

https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/?m=1


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## ScottySkis (Feb 6, 2020)

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