# 2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)



## dlague (Jul 11, 2014)

WELL!  They are starting to come out and everything seems optimistic for colder and snowier conditions!?





> TheSIWeather.com blog discusses the NOAA CFS model forecast for next winter’s Pacific sea surface temperatures and how the forecast seems to favor a colder, snowier winter setup for the Eastern U.S. akin to the notorious 2003-03 and 2009-10 winters. Let’s take a closer look at the claim.
> 
> View attachment 12969



Here are a few links:

winter-2014-15-a-way-too-early-look-at-a-cold-and-snowy-possibility?

For you technical types

preliminary-enso-outlook-for-winter

Something to watch!


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## fbrissette (Jul 11, 2014)

Here we go again with this non-sense.  While El Nino has an important  effect on the West Coast, it has essentially no impact in New-England.  Seasonal correlations between mean precipitation, mean temperatures and EL-Nino are non-existent for the north-east.  They keep cranking up those forecast cause it makes people talk and creates lots of website hits.


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## Puck it (Jul 11, 2014)

But we love it!  Buzz killer!


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## jack97 (Jul 12, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> Here we go again with this non-sense.



lol.... kinda of funny given you help in developing climate models for the IPCC. The performance of these models is lacking.





fbrissette said:


> While El Nino has an important effect on the West Coast, it has essentially no impact in New-England. Seasonal correlations between mean precipitation, mean temperatures and EL-Nino are non-existent for the north-east.* They keep cranking up those forecast cause it makes people talk and creates lots of website hits*.



I was living in CA when they had droughts, they would track every storm coming from the Pacific, so the El Nino is a major factor on which part of the part of the west gets the moisture. What I found interesting is how those same storms travel across the country toward the east coast and further develop into a snow or rain event. 

NOAA has been predicting the El Nino has a 70% of developing by the end of summer and a 80% chance of developing by fall or winter. Bastardi is hinting that we have more of the same winter as last year or worse, I'm assuming he thinks its the scenario that is outlined in the vid. He and Aleo haven't called it yet, maybe they want to see the trends develop more. 

BTW, Bastardi and Aleo runs a private/subscription weather service, they get paid by the value and accuracy of their predictions. So far, they have been nailing most of the major storms and long range forecast.


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## fbrissette (Jul 12, 2014)

jack97 said:


> lol.... kinda of funny given you help in developing climate models for the IPCC. The performance of these models is lacking.
> 
> I was living in CA when they had droughts, they would track every storm coming from the Pacific, so the El Nino is a major factor on which part of the part of the west gets the moisture. What I found interesting is how those same storms travel across the country toward the east coast and further develop into a snow or rain event.
> 
> ...



You're doing it again.  Once again you're bringing climate change into a thread that is NOT about global warming.  I was merely commenting that ENSO has no impact on New-England weather - something that is well documented.  

And I have no idea where you picked this idea that I helped in developing climate models for the IPCC ???


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## Edd (Jul 12, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> And I have no idea where you picked this idea that I helped in developing climate models for the IPCC ???




The global warming "conspiracy" goes so deep you didn't even know you were involved.  That's some sinister shit.  Now your eyes are open, my friend.


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## snoseek (Jul 12, 2014)

A little early but honestly I can't get enough of this stuff. 

After the past three winters I really want a decent one. California is due, not sure whether I want to roll the dice there again though. I'll be watching this thread even if its all voodoo science


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## jack97 (Jul 13, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> You're doing it again.  Once again you're bringing climate change into a thread that is NOT about global warming.  I was merely commenting that ENSO has no impact on New-England weather - something that is well documented.



But climate is always changing, in addition, this well documented. 

However by the so called 97%, we should not have winters with heavy snow fall.... well that's what the eco-church said back around 2000. But with the warming still occurring in their models, that makes this thread is moot with respect winter. Maybe I should sell my ski gear on ebay because skiing will be obsolete. 





fbrissette said:


> And I have no idea where you picked this idea that I helped in developing climate models for the IPCC ???



Contributing toward climate research to make the AGW hypothesis appear scientific is another means in development.


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## dlague (Jul 13, 2014)

Getting back on track - El Niño effects the west our weather comes for the northwest, west and southwest so in effect what happens out west can possibly have an impact on the northeast due to the jet stream!


.......


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## jack97 (Jul 13, 2014)

dlague said:


> Getting back on track - El Niño effects the west our weather comes for the northwest, west and southwest so in effect what happens out west can *possibly* have an impact on the northeast due to the jet stream!
> 
> 
> .......



In addition, we have the AMO in transition and the solar cycle weakening. The latter according to some solar physicist is the reason we have been getting the changes in the jet stream. 

Bastardi is an ocean guy meaning he thinks the PDO and AMO will be a better indicator of the type of winter we will get. Not sure if he made the call yet but I be checking up on his forecast... its better than porn.


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## Not Sure (Jul 13, 2014)

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/12/coldest-antarctic-june-ever-recorded/
Coldest June on record .Any French speaking readers, please clarify  the additional sunlight question. I don't see how they get additional sunlight , maybe they're refering to lack of cloud cover?


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## jack97 (Jul 13, 2014)

Summer is about half over, arctic temps are below the reconstructed mean temps. That region didn't have much days with temps above (fresh) water freezing. 

btw, what's with the foreign sites, they are reporting unprecedented polar conditions....the ice is suppose to be melted away by now.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php


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## jack97 (Jul 13, 2014)

it's snowing in the Austrian alps....I thought skiing and riding was suppose to be non existence in this region. 

Austrian Alps


hmmm.... maybe AGW is only occurring in the models and no where else.


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## deadheadskier (Jul 13, 2014)

What do your last two posts have to do with the 2014-2015 North American Winter Forecast?


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## jack97 (Jul 13, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> What do your last two posts have to do with the 2014-2015 North American Winter Forecast?



They are indicators that the climate is heading for a cooling period. Bastardi and Aleo have seen trends that the regions in the Atlantic Oceans temps (SST) is in transition from a warm to cold phase. The Pacific is already in its cold phase. The Arctic temps or ice coverage is another indicator that the Atlantic is starting to cool. Snow this early in the Alps is another indicator the NH is going in the cold phase.


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## 4aprice (Jul 14, 2014)

jack97 said:


> Bastardi is an ocean guy meaning he thinks the PDO and AMO will be a better indicator of the type of winter we will get. Not sure if he made the call yet but I be checking up on his forecast... its better than porn.



JB has been saying that he believes next winter will be nasty (good for us snow geese).  The one thing he has been consistent on is that calls for a big El Nino were overblown (looks like most are backing off that now).  Look for a primary call in Sept and a final call in November.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## St. Bear (Jul 14, 2014)

I like Bastardi, but you need to take him with a grain of salt.  If everything he says comes true, everywhere north of the Mason-Dixon Line would get 300" of snow.  I take what he says, combine it with what traditional media says, and the outcome is usually somewhere in the middle.


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## jack97 (Jul 14, 2014)

4aprice said:


> The one thing he has been consistent on is that calls for a big El Nino were overblown (looks like most are backing off that now)




Not picking on you b/c you have cool about things.....IMO, the reason the big El Nino got hyped was two fold; end the drought in the SW and that it would spike up the temps from the 17 to 18 year pause. 

The scientist who know their stuff predicted months in advance that since the PDO is in a cold phase this upcoming El Nino would be moderate to neutral.


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## Cannonball (Jul 14, 2014)

jack97 said:


> btw, what's with the foreign sites, they are reporting unprecedented polar conditions....
> 
> http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php



I guess they are just reporting the data. The same data as the US sites actually, so not that surprising.  BTW, thanks for sharing that site I hadn't checked it out before.  I have to admit, knowing your previous take on this issue I thought when you said "unprecedented" it was probably going to be some wacky website with a twisted data.  But this is a pretty good site that shows the same arctic sea ice loss that everyone else is reporting.  I was (pleasantly) surprised to find that you are now looking at the same data as everyone else.  Kudos to you for being open to coming around on this.  It really is pretty wild to see this rapid ice loss and it certainly is unprecedented in modern terms.  

But the short-term good news for us is that despite the longterm trends, there are lots of indicators for a snowy 14-15!!!


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## thetrailboss (Jul 14, 2014)

dlague said:


> WELL!  They are starting to come out and everything seems optimistic for colder and snowier conditions!?
> 
> View attachment 12970
> 
> ...



Ugh. No! :roll:


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## Moe Ghoul (Jul 14, 2014)

More polar vortex, please. There's one right now dropping temps to seasonally below averages. If we can't get 500" of snow I'll settle with 300 " and the cold to preserve it.


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## jack97 (Jul 15, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> I guess they are just reporting the data. The same data as the US sites actually, so not that surprising.  BTW, thanks for sharing that site I hadn't checked it out before.  I have to admit, knowing your previous take on this issue I thought when you said "unprecedented" it was probably going to be some wacky website with a twisted data.  But this is a pretty good site that shows the same arctic sea ice loss that everyone else is reporting.  I was (pleasantly) surprised to find that you are now looking at the same data as everyone else.  *Kudos to you for being open to coming around on this.*  It really is pretty wild to see this rapid ice loss and it certainly is unprecedented in modern terms.



lol.... I haven't come around on this. 

It's funny that people can see the same data sets and come up with different conclusions. The camp that states natural causes would say the data is supporting this theory. They had been saying this for well over 20 years. 



And just so you know, I am an environmentalist, but this AGW has no scientific foundation. What is troubling is that it has taken research away from addressing true environmental issues.


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## bigbog (Jul 15, 2014)

It's a little longer flight Jack97....it's the _AustrALIAN Alps_, not the _Austrian Alps_:lol:!...  But that accumulation is great to look at wherever..


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## Cannonball (Jul 15, 2014)

bigbog said:


> It's a little longer flight Jack97....it's the _AustrALIAN Alps_, not the _Austrian Alps_:lol:!...  But that accumulation is great to look at wherever..


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## St. Bear (Jul 15, 2014)

Today is, on average, the warmest day of the year.  Starting tomorrow, the Northern Hemisphere begins cooling.  Countdown to winter has begun.


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## jack97 (Jul 15, 2014)

bigbog said:


> It's a little longer flight Jack97....it's the _AustrALIAN Alps_, not the _Austrian Alps_:lol:!...  But that accumulation is great to look at wherever..



haha..... got what I deserved for posting when I should be finishing some work.

here's what I meant about the alps... the french alps.


http://www.thelocal.fr/20140710/in-pictures-french-alps-get-summer-snow


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## fbrissette (Jul 15, 2014)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/12/coldest-antarctic-june-ever-recorded/
> Coldest June on record .Any French speaking readers, please clarify  the additional sunlight question. I don't see how they get additional sunlight , maybe they're refering to lack of cloud cover?



The word 'insolation' means number of hours with direct sunlight (no cloud cover).  11.8 hours of sun instead of the average 7.4.   They get close to 24 hours of daylight at this time of the year.

To those who did not read the link, it is the coldest June on record for ONE weather station in Antarctica.  It is important to note that globally (including Antarctica), June 2014 was the third warmest on record, following the warmest May ever.


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## fbrissette (Jul 15, 2014)

jack97 said:


> but this AGW has no scientific foundation.



Trying to get this topic back on track.    Since you're the science guy, can you show us the science that proves that you can predict next winter conditions 6 months ahead with any skill for the Northeast ?    (by skill I mean anything better than random).

You won't find the science because it does not exist.   Even by October, nobody can predict the amount of snow for the next 5 months better than random in the North-east.   Information like that would be worth somewhere in the 100 millions per year range for Hydro-Quebec only (13 blllions in revenues from hydropower in Quebec only), so believe me they've looked pretty hard.    The seasonal forecasts are getting better but they have no skill yet in the north east.  Weather analogues are no better.

These forecasts are fun but don't pretend there is any science behind it.


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## fbrissette (Jul 15, 2014)

dlague said:


> Getting back on track - El Niño effects the west our weather comes for the northwest, west and southwest so in effect what happens out west can possibly have an impact on the northeast due to the jet stream!
> 
> 
> .......




That's in theory.  In practice it does not happen that way.


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## Not Sure (Jul 15, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> The word 'insolation' means number of hours with direct sunlight (no cloud cover).  11.8 hours of sun instead of the average 7.4.   They get close to 24 hours of daylight at this time of the year.
> 
> To those who did not read the link, it is the coldest June on record for ONE weather station in Antarctica.  It is important to note that globally (including Antarctica), June 2014 was the third warmest on record, following the warmest May ever.



Pretty much what I thought regarding cloudcover

"They get close to 24hrs of daylight at this time of year" .............It's Winter in the Antartic ,don't you mean darkness?
Below the circle
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/89606.html


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## fbrissette (Jul 15, 2014)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Pretty much what I thought regarding cloudcover
> 
> "They get close to 24hrs of daylight at this time of year" .............It's Winter in the Antartic ,don't you mean darkness?
> Below the circle
> http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/89606.html




oops...  Just got my Australian alps moment.  The station is roughly at 67 degrees south.  So that would be 11.8 hours of sun for the full month...


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## Tin (Jul 15, 2014)

I don't understand how "climate" and "weather" are used interchangeably.


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## Cannonball (Jul 15, 2014)

Tin said:


> I don't understand how "climate" and "weather" are used interchangeably.



Then you are ahead of the game.   That is only done by people who understand neither climate nor weather.


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## jack97 (Jul 16, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> Trying to get this topic back on track.    Since you're the science guy, can you show us the science that proves that you can predict next winter conditions 6 months ahead with any skill for the Northeast ?    (by skill I mean anything better than random).
> 
> You won't find the science because it does not exist.   Even by October, nobody can predict the amount of snow for the next 5 months better than random in the North-east.   Information like that would be worth somewhere in the 100 millions per year range for Hydro-Quebec only (13 blllions in revenues from hydropower in Quebec only), so believe me they've looked pretty hard.    The seasonal forecasts are getting better but they have no skill yet in the north east.  Weather analogues are no better.
> 
> These forecasts are fun but don't pretend there is any science behind it.




You then know that weather is a chaotic process hence it long term prediction are difficult at best. Given so, historical records both from nature and man shows the weather and climate have many cycles. The problem is identifying these cycles and when they will match up. So analogs are still valid with that respect. In addition, they may be better predictor than climate models.

And in terms if AGW not having any scientific foundation, all measured data have shown man made co2 emissions have not caused temps rise nor sea level rise. Until that happens its still political dogma.


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## jack97 (Jul 16, 2014)

Tin said:


> I don't understand how "climate" and "weather" are used interchangeably.



By NASA's definition;  Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time. 


The problem will be the lengths of time. The climate models are close to losing its 90% confidence levels as a result of the pause. Proponents will be arguing that a 20 year period is not long enough to determine climate.

Others argue that even so, the other causes of for GW have not been seen.


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## fbrissette (Jul 16, 2014)

jack97 said:


> Proponents will be arguing that a 20 year period is not long enough to determine climate.



Climate is defined as a 30-year average of meteorological conditions (This is the World Meterological Organisation standard and has been so for a very long time).


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## fbrissette (Jul 16, 2014)

jack97 said:


> So analogs are still valid with that respect. In addition, they may be better predictor than climate models.



Analogs are used in WEATHER forecasting.  They cannot be better or worse than CLIMATE models.  They are NOT used for the same thing.

I never said that analogs are useless.  I said they are useless for seasonal forecasts in the north-east.  Analogs can be very useful for short-term forecasts (and by short-term I mean a few days ahead).


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## Abubob (Jul 16, 2014)

Edd said:


> The global warming "conspiracy" goes so deep you didn't even know you were involved.  That's some sinister shit.  Now your eyes are open, my friend.



Oh yes! "I shouted out who killed the Kennedys but after all it was you and me."


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## Abubob (Jul 16, 2014)

Tin said:


> I don't understand how "climate" and "weather" are used interchangeably.



Beats the crap out of me.

weather |ˈweT͟Hər|
noun
the state of the atmosphere at a place and time as regards heat, dryness, sunshine, wind, rain, etc.


climate |ˈklīmit|
noun
the weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period


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## Tin (Jul 16, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> Then you are ahead of the game.   That is only done by people who understand neither climate nor weather.



It's quite common to see in these threads.


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## Not Sure (Jul 16, 2014)

Tin said:


> It's quite common to see in these threads.



Weather and Climate are easy to understand , 
Weather .....If it's raining and you go outside you get wet, If it's sunny and you go out you get sunburn. ect.....

Climate ......If you stay out in the rain and the sun for a long period of time your skin gets wrinkly and your hair gets bleached.


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## jack97 (Jul 17, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> Analogs are used in WEATHER forecasting.  They cannot be better or worse than CLIMATE models.  They are NOT used for the same thing.



Analogs are based on natural cycle, both long term and short term. In terms of the PDO and AMO, Gray, Aleo, Bastardi and Curry (there is prolly more but that's what I can think of for now) have stated that based on the phases of these cycles, the globe will be heading for a cooling phase for several decades. Most have stated when the pause occurred, this was due to the PDO changing phase. Gray on the other hand was ahead of this curve with this prediction. 

Time will tell whether the above is correct or not. However this seems more plausible than the heat from AGW is hiding in the ocean.


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## fbrissette (Jul 17, 2014)

jack97 said:


> Analogs are based on natural cycle, both long term and short term.




You cannot have climate analogs (at least not in the sense you are arguing about).  We have barely enough data to cover a 50-year period.  There is a reason they are called 'weather analogs'.   



jack97 said:


> In terms of the PDO and AMO, Gray, Aleo, Bastardi and Curry (there is prolly more but that's what I can think of for now) have stated that based on the phases of these cycles, the globe will be heading for a cooling phase for several decades.



This ain't science, this is looking at a crystal ball.



jack97 said:


> However this seems more plausible than the heat from AGW is hiding in the ocean.



The ocean uptake of a lot of heat is backed by more and more scientific data.   But of course, the work of thousands of scientists around the world (all part of the conspiracy) is nothing compared to the words of the mighty Bastardi who has never done any research nor has published a single paper his entire life.


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## jack97 (Jul 18, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> This ain't science, this is looking at a crystal ball.



haha... shows your ignorance to other hypothesis, dominate natural causes is supported by a plurality of emeritus and department professors.




fbrissette said:


> The ocean uptake of a lot of heat is backed by more and more scientific data. But of course, the work of thousands of scientists around the world (all part of the conspiracy) is nothing compared to the words of the mighty Bastardi who has never done any research nor has published a single paper his entire life.



show the cause of this ocean uptake. without a plausible cause and effect this in itself is gazing into the crystal ball.


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## fbrissette (Jul 18, 2014)

jack97 said:


> haha... shows your ignorance to other hypothesis, dominate natural causes is supported by a plurality of emeritus and department professors.



I am simply asking you to show the science.  You are saying that we are going into SEVERAL decades of cooling in terms of PDO and AMO. Show the observations/models that support this.   If you cannot (and you won't), then you are looking at a crystal ball with all your friends.

Show the science.  Can you do that ?


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## dlague (Jul 18, 2014)

Well, anyway, the winter forecast does look promising!  Makes me happy!  :beer:


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## jack97 (Jul 19, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> I am simply asking you to show the science.  You are saying that we are going into SEVERAL decades of cooling in terms of PDO and AMO. Show the observations/models that support this.   If you cannot (and you won't), then you are looking at a crystal ball with all your friends.
> 
> Show the science.  Can you do that ?



from NOAA, AMO compared to Arctic temp abnormality





Aleo's plots when he was at intellicast 

http://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/Article/172_5.gif



If you do an image search you will find more plots where they use various formulas for plot fitting the PDO & AMO to the temp abnormalities. The web page from the image below has an interesting paper on SST in general.


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## jack97 (Jul 19, 2014)

dlague said:


> Well, anyway, the winter forecast does look promising!  Makes me happy!  :beer:



If JB and Aleo are right about this..... you and I will be very happy. My concern is that if the solar activity continues to decrease for longer periods of time (over a decade) then it might be too much happiness for me to bear.


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## jack97 (Jul 19, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> Show the science.  Can you do that ?



Speaking of showing the science, is the Trenberth and Fasullo paper the most definitive of the ocean's uptake, it seemed like it started this suggestion that the heat is hiding in the ocean. Is there a more conclusive paper from the 1000's of scientist studying this missing heat problem.


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## fbrissette (Jul 19, 2014)

jack97 said:


> from NOAA, AMO compared to Arctic temp abnormality
> 
> View attachment 13006
> 
> ...




I am asking for science (show me a paper, not a bunch of graphs) showing that we are heading toward SEVERAL DECADES of cooling. Those graphs don't mean what you think they mean.

You don't like tree rings or other means of reconstructing the past when it comes to global surface temperatures but you are happy using graphs that go back in time using the same data when it apparently suits your need.

As to papers related to ocean heat or the ocean as a sink go to google scholar and search.   You'll find there'a lot of people who do research besides the very vocal  Jones, Mann, Trenberth and cie.


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## jack97 (Jul 19, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> I am simply asking you to show the science.  You are saying that we are going into SEVERAL decades of cooling in terms of PDO and AMO. *Show the observations/models that support this*.   If you cannot (and you won't), then you are looking at a crystal ball with all your friends.
> 
> Show the science.  Can you do that ?





fbrissette said:


> I am asking for science (show me a paper, not a bunch of graphs) showing that we are heading toward SEVERAL DECADES of cooling. Those graphs don't mean what you think they mean.
> 
> You don't like tree rings or other means of reconstructing the past when it comes to global surface temperatures but you are happy using graphs that go back in time using the same data when it apparently suits your need.




You ask for observations, those graphs are observations. In addition, the last plots came from a Chinese journal;
http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/article/2014/0256-1530-31-316.html


Plots shows a neg slope temp abnorms, that's a cooling in trend given the alarmist are using positive slope as a warming trend.


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## Cannonball (Jul 19, 2014)

jack97 said:


> You ask for observations, those graphs are observations. In addition, the last plots came from a Chinese journal;
> http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/article/2014/0256-1530-31-316.html
> 
> 
> Plots shows a neg slope temp abnorms, that's a cooling in trend given the alarmist are using positive slope as a warming trend.



Just so we are on the same page.  The research article you just posted is starting from an explicit understanding (they state this clearly) that:
- The emission of greenhouse gasses are resulting in global warming
- That long term global surface temperatures are rising
- That long term sea surface temperatures are increasing and that is "attributed to greenhouse warming"

The point of the study is to breakdown the individual short-term[FONT=Verdana, ����] oscillation (the stuff you've been posting) in order to help refine the details of the [/FONT]long-term[FONT=Verdana, ����]  warming trend created by greenhouse gas emissions. Their bottom line is pretty explicit: "[/FONT]Clearly understanding multi-decadal oscillations enables climate scientists to estimate global warming change signals with more certainty."  This is a very good and straightforward study, it is perfectly in keeping with what virtually every climate scientist has been publishing, and it is exactly the opposite of what you have been claiming.  You couldn't have found an article that does a better job of disproving your own arguments.


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## jack97 (Jul 19, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> Just so we are on the same page.  The research article you just posted is starting from an explicit understanding (they state this clearly) that:
> - The emission of greenhouse gasses are resulting in global warming
> - That long term global surface temperatures are rising
> - That long term sea surface temperatures are increasing and that is "attributed to greenhouse warming"
> ...




you crack me up..... this is too much entertainment. This tells me you have not published or have not read research articles.  Greenhouse gases and (alarmist warming) IPPC  is mentioned in the introduction section to set forth the purpose of the paper. Go read the discussion and conclusion, section 5 if you can follow numbers. This section mentions CO2 as a centennial warming. IMO, they added this to curve fit the warming trends of the temp abnormality plots. BTW.... it should be warming in the interglacial.


"In addition to the SST trend changes, our analysis furthershowed the contribution of multi-decadal oscillations to the trends in thetropospheric warming. *While the thermodynamic response to CO[SUB]2[/SUB] warming tends to produce a spatiallyuniform centennial warming*, the transition of PDO-like oscillations fromnegative to positive phase contribute significant tropical warming and weakerextratropical cooling in the troposphere (Fig. 8. On the other hand, thetransition of AMO-like oscillation from negative to positive phase gives riseto warming trends in the Northern Hemisphere and the opposite in the SouthernHemisphere, and the range of the Northern Hemisphere warming is greater thanthat of the Southern Hemisphere cooling (Fig. 10). "


And the end goal of their paper was this,

"Clearly understanding multi-decadal oscillations enables climate scientists to estimate global warming change signals with more certainty. Such knowledge is also crucially needed for developing decadal climate prediction systems."


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## Cannonball (Jul 19, 2014)

^Yup, that's what it says:  There are short-term oscillations (decades long) in smaller-scale parts of the globe (southern vs northern hemisphere) that occur within the long-term (centuries+) warming trend at the largest-scale (the global climate).  

It's pretty straightforward and simple.  And it is exactly what the IPCC and virtually all climate scientists are saying.  Which explains why this article heavily cites the IPCC.  I'm not sure how you are seeing something different in this.  You are even highlighting the exact things that are contrary to your point.  You're essentially just arguing with yourself now.


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## jack97 (Jul 19, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> It's pretty straightforward and simple.  And it is exactly what the IPCC and virtually all climate scientists are saying.  Which explains why this article heavily cites the IPCC.  *I'm not sure how you are seeing something different in this.*  You are even highlighting the exact things that are contrary to your point.  You're essentially just arguing with yourself now.



Yep, unlike you and frisb, I like reading all sides both AGW and natural. A couple of things on why I see it different, curve fitting is a tricky thing, Aleo placed the sun spot activity and he can get the same trend. Once can used estimates of the different revisions of the surface temps and still make a good curve fit. All one needs is a montonic response for the long term trend.

Second, ice cores records show that co2 has lag temps, this would still be true starting from 1914 up to 1960-1970 according to the alarmist while to the present by others. However, there is a long term trend no one is in agreement with that started over a century ago. That could be a topic for another pissing match between the three of us. 

As I stated, the point made by the authors was that AMO and PDO should be used to minimize the uncertainty in climate prediction. If you want to banter more about why I chose to cite an AGW paper which undercuts my pro natural stance then you are more arrogant  than I give you credit for.


----------



## Not Sure (Jul 19, 2014)

Your Tennis match is intersting but I'd like to look at the whole mechanics of the term "Green house gas "
C02 is blamed for AGW. being a clear gas ,How does it trap energy?  did a little searching and found an intersesting theory on how it "traps energy"
https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20110113081142AAkqK9q
 But the explanation leaves out or does'nt explain how it would not be reflected on the first pass through our atmosphere,
it mentions H20 as having a reflective property also . I can attest to that as having flown into areas shaded by cirrus clouds.
Convection shuts down rather quick. Also cloudy nights tend to be warmer , so more clouds equals warmer temps.
Also are there any studies of jet con trail percentage of sky cover reflecting energy? They can flaten out and grow quite large.
Hmmmm?


----------



## deadheadskier (Jul 19, 2014)

I think we've crossed a threshold where no weather thread on AZ can exist without AGW being brought up.  

I wonder if the same thing occurs on golfing forums.  Regional summer forecasts are predicted and folks chime in on why or why not Humvees are to blame.  

:lol:


----------



## jack97 (Jul 20, 2014)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Your Tennis match is intersting but I'd like to look at the whole mechanics of the term "Green house gas "
> C02 is blamed for AGW. being a clear gas ,How does it trap energy?  did a little searching and found an intersesting theory on how it "traps energy"
> https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20110113081142AAkqK9q
> But the explanation leaves out or does'nt explain how it would not be reflected on the first pass through our atmosphere,
> ...



Lindzen, MIT emeritus prof and Spencer lead scientist at UAH for satellite observation wrote papers about this cloud feedback process. They also mentioned from other lectures that it is not a well modeled process in the GCMs used by the IPCC for climate prediction.

Spencer also has interesting insight on why the GCM models were predicting the troposphere hot spot which would be the true indicator of the greenhouse effect where as the satellite and weather balloon has not observed this.


----------



## jack97 (Jul 20, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> I think we've crossed a threshold where no weather thread on AZ can exist without AGW being brought up.
> 
> I wonder if the same thing occurs on golfing forums.  Regional summer forecasts are predicted and folks chime in on why or why not Humvees are to blame.
> 
> :lol:



lol.... I'll take credit in derailing this thread toward falsifying AGW. I take no shame in doing so. 

BTW, in terms of golfing, most regions in US have had a cool summer so I doubt they are complaining. JB is saying this cooling is going to last and we are heading for a bad winter... meaning a good winter for skiing/riding. Fingers cross for the later.


----------



## Cannonball (Jul 20, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> I think we've crossed a threshold where no weather thread on AZ can exist without AGW being brought up.



Yeah, it's pretty predictable at this point.  And as is often the case: Predictable = dull


----------



## fbrissette (Jul 20, 2014)

jack97 said:


> Yep, unlike you and frisb,



Frisb ????   How about 'frisbee' while you're at it !   Wouldn't be your first distortion of reality anyway...


----------



## jack97 (Jul 20, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> Frisb ????   How about 'frisbee' while you're at it !   Wouldn't be your first distortion of reality anyway...



Sorry...typo due to my haste to finish the post so that I can read more about how that heat is missing....haha.


----------



## fbrissette (Jul 20, 2014)

jack97 said:


> Sorry...typo due to my haste to finish the post so that I can read more about how that heat is missing....haha.



To help you out with your readings.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/c...tralianled-research-finds-20140720-zuuoe.html

Here's the link to the paper.  Look at Figure 6.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2310.html

If you take the ensemble mean (mean of all models as is usually done) you average out natural variability and you are left with the climate change trend.  By selecting the climate models that are in phase with the current ENSO they reproduce the temperature plateau very well.


----------



## jack97 (Jul 20, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> To help you out with your readings.
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/environment/c...tralianled-research-finds-20140720-zuuoe.html
> 
> ...




lol.... are you kidding me? I asked for a something more definitive about the heat hiding in the ocean but I get a propaganda paper on the CMIP5 sets of models. Lead author states the following; 

By selecting climate models in phase with natural variability, the research found that model trends have been consistent with observed trends, even during the recent “slowdown” period for warming, Dr Risbey said.

So this begs the question, how many of the models got selected, by the figures, I think 3 to 4 models made the cut, iirc the set has 20 to 30 models. 


Second, per the abstract, they have to sequence the phase of the El Niino oscillations.

We present a more appropriate test of models where only those models with natural variability (represented by El Niño/Southern Oscillation) largely in phase with observations are selected from multi-model ensembles for comparison with observations. 


Third , the pause seems to start around the mid 1970s, its off by ~ 30 years, not even close to the observations.  


So in the contrived model world, in order for a climate prediction, one would have to pre select the right models and have the proper oscillations sequence.... well this means we have to make a prediction for the climate prediction. It's no wonder that one of the author teaches at School of Experimental Psychology. It truly reeks of massaging a message instead of a rigorous scientific paper. 





fbrissette said:


> Wouldn't be your first distortion of reality anyway...



Now I get it, distorting reality does not apply to you or a AGW researcher.


----------



## fbrissette (Jul 20, 2014)

jack97 said:


> I asked for a something more definitive about the heat hiding in the ocean but I get a propaganda paper on the CMIP5 sets of models. Lead author states the following;



This paper is ultimately about heat and the ocean.  Forget about climate change just for a second.  Some components of natural variability (like ENSO) are NOT linked to changes in solar activity.   We get cooling and heating periods with constant solar radiation.  Where do you think the solar heat goes ?   The ocean absorbs and releases the heat to go along with it's decadal variability.  It's not a new concept.





jack97 said:


> Second, per the abstract, they have to sequence the phase of the El Niino oscillations.
> 
> We present a more appropriate test of models where only those models with natural variability (represented by El Niño/Southern Oscillation) largely in phase with observations are selected from multi-model ensembles for comparison with observations.
> 
> ...



It is amazing that you would be so critical of climate model when you clearly have zero understanding of how they work.  

The only forcing climate model use is solar radiation at the upper atmosphere and the composition of the atmosphere (mainly greenhouse gases and aerosols).   Climate models are not assimilating any data (as do weather models) and as such are completely disconnected from the earth real sequence of events (with the exception of major solar eruption, where the input of large amount of aerosols will provoke a cooling effect).  In other words, in the sequence of natural variability, warm years don't happen at the same time in the model and on the earth.  Wet and dry years will also happen at a similar rate but NOT at the same time.  Natural variability in the models is out of phase to that of the real earth because nothing is connecting the real earth to the earth simulated by the climate models - it's like a similar planet in a parallel universe (in weather models, near-real time observations from stations, weather balloons and satellites is assimilated in the model so that the model and real earth are in phase).

So what happens when you use the ensemble mean as is done by the IPCC ?   You average out the natural variability of all the climate models (non of which are in phase except by chance) and you end up with the climate change signal which is a steadily increasing line.   This is pretty basic stuff.   If you select the few models where ENSO is relatively in phase with the currently observed sequence on earth, you end up with a plateau similar to the one currently observed.    

None of the models are perfectly in phase (they are NOT supposed to be in phase !!!!) so you cannot expect them to fit the observed line perfectly!!!  because that CAN'T !!!   And ENSO (the criteria for selection) does not control all of the natural variability.  The fact that those models are closest in phase to the observed ENSO cycle on the earth does not mean that they are better, it's just the luck of the draw. 

So to recapitulate:

- the ensemble mean from CMIP5 models CANNOT show a plateau  (this is obvious to anyone who knows about climate models). I repeat, the ensemble mean CANNOT result in a plateau.  It just CAN'T.   Yet, you and your friends insist on using this graph to show that climate models are bad, when in reality you are only showcasing your ignorance. 

- if you look at each individuals members, most show plateaus due to their own natural variability (which is realtively similar to the natural variability observed on earth in terms of time scales) - however, these plateau CANNOT happen at the same time unless it is by chance.

- if you take the models that are the closest in phase to the current ENSO cycle observed on the earth and you average them out, you do you get a plateau similar to the one currently observed on the earth.  Expecting the plateau to be exactly like the one we have on earth is NOT possible !!!  Expecting this simply means you have no clue about what climate models do.

This is no new science in this paper, but it is a clever way of showing the above concepts in a practical way.

As to observations on ocean heat uptake, do your own search.   You have proven over and over again your inability at reading and understanding basic concepts in science papers, including the ones you offer on your own and that supposedly back up your point of view. 

This thread is a perfect example as to why scientists are so reluctant to enter the public debate.  Nothing to gain beside the increase in post counts. 

Frisbee


----------



## jack97 (Jul 21, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> It is amazing that you would be so critical of climate model when you clearly have zero understanding of how they work.
> 
> 
> None of the models are perfectly in phase (they are NOT supposed to be in phase !!!!) so you cannot expect them to fit the observed line perfectly!!! because that CAN'T !!! And ENSO (the criteria for selection) does not control all of the natural variability. The fact that those models are closest in phase to the observed ENSO cycle on the earth does not mean that they are better, it's just the luck of the draw.
> ...




You and the modelers (IPPC) are asking that the western world bankrupt and ruin their economies just to satisfy the political agenda based on the outcomes of models that do not reflect reality. BTW, money generated in a robust economy usually fuels more research. Such as research to address *real* environmental issues. 

And yes, it been known for quite some time that the models have limitations, there have been papers published on this topic. Yet the IPPC still wants to ruin the economy, which is troubling. 


Equally true is that models are based on faulty principles and will never be accurate. The observations just proves this. In addition, there are scientist (Christy, Lindzen, Curry and I can list more) that have talked about how the models are wrong. Its the AGW scientist and researchers who are dogmatic about this topic and just wants to massage the message to misdirect the scientific truth. 








fbrissette said:


> This paper is ultimately about heat and the ocean. Forget about climate change just for a second. Some components of natural variability (like ENSO) are NOT linked to changes in solar activity. We get cooling and heating periods with constant solar radiation. Where do you think the solar heat goes ? The ocean absorbs and releases the heat to go along with it's decadal variability. *It's not a new concept*.



haha... yep, it's not a new concept. And based on your acknowledgement the lack of accuracy in the models, I find it more amusing that Trenberth and Fasullo have based their missing heat on the outcomes of these models..... maybe the models are faulty and there is no missing heat.


----------



## dlague (Jul 21, 2014)

Well here is another promising forecast!  Let's hope they pan out.  The El Niño character keeps getting referenced in all the forecasts.

http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.p...er-rochester-salem-merrimack-keene?groupid=61



.......


----------



## deadheadskier (Jul 21, 2014)

jack97 said:


> lol.... I'll take credit in derailing this thread toward falsifying AGW. I take no shame in doing so.



Why do you feel compelled to do this in literally every single thread about weather these days?  It seems to me that if there's a slight opportunity in any thread to crowbar in your beliefs on AGW, you take it. 

And in asking this question, this is not me trying to "moderate" such discussions and telling you to stop.  By all means, if discussing AGW is what turns you on, go for it.  It just seems you are on a mission from god to try and disprove AGW.  



Cannonball said:


> Yeah, it's pretty predictable at this point.  And as is often the case: Predictable = dull



agreed

I find most AGW conversations have become no different than most major political and or moral arguments of the day; capital punishment, gun control, abortion, etc.  You've got two sides that will never change their opinion on the subject or the opinions on the other side, so around and around they go ad nauseam.


----------



## dlague (Jul 21, 2014)

:beer:

Can't we all just get along?  So back to this winter forecast - excitement, could care less, sad?


----------



## fbrissette (Jul 21, 2014)

dlague said:


> :beer:
> 
> Can't we all just get along?  So back to this winter forecast - excitement, could care less, sad?




Sorry.  No excitement for me since the scientific value of seasonal forecasts for the North-East is nil.  

Bad years always have good days, and great years always have bad days.  My philosophy has always been the same - I get rid of my teaching load in the fall trimester, try to minimize meetings and commitments during the winter term, ski every snow storm, hit the backcountry on below average days.  Works for me !


----------



## jack97 (Jul 21, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> It just seems you are on a mission from god to try and disprove AGW.



I'm not on a mission from god.... I'm on a mission from the guy below.


----------



## jack97 (Jul 21, 2014)

dlague said:


> Well here is another promising forecast!  Let's hope they pan out.  The El Niño character keeps getting referenced in all the forecasts.
> 
> http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.p...er-rochester-salem-merrimack-keene?groupid=61
> 
> ...





dlague said:


> :beer:
> 
> Can't we all just get along?  So back to this winter forecast - excitement, could care less, sad?



Last I checked, the index is still in favor for the nino event, the strength is still a guess. But some believe the PDO's phase will make this a moderate to neutral event. Another item is the ocean may have overall gotten colder or losing heat since early 2000, this has been confirmed by several papers and yet invalidated by others. If long range forecaster (JB and Aleo) believe in the former, they will most likely believe we will have a winter similar to last season or worse


----------



## fbrissette (Jul 21, 2014)

jack97 said:


> Another item is the ocean may have overall gotten colder or losing heat since early 2000, this has been confirmed by several papers



For crying out loud, this BS has got to stop.


----------



## jack97 (Jul 21, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> For crying out loud, this BS has got to stop.




haha.... typical hypocrisy  on your part. You cite a propaganda paper yesterday and now today you call me out on citing papers that the ocean is cooling but yet *leave* out that I mentioned papers that have invalidate this cooling. I tried to state a balance reply but you have to focus on the one thing you do not agree with.

OK, if you want to go for a couple more rounds I can cite them from rigorous scientific journals but it will quickly lose the interest of other posters and make this into a real piss war.

And btw, there's several interesting papers that may invalidate the missing heat suggestion.


----------



## Cannonball (Jul 21, 2014)

Can we all just agree to stop feeding this troll?


----------



## jack97 (Jul 21, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> Can we all just agree to stop feeding this troll?



WTF.... a cooling trend will make for a better winter for skiing and riding. I stated that there are papers that state a cooling ocean and papers that invalidate this, imo a *balanced* reply.

It's you and frisbee that can not accept the other part.


----------



## Edd (Jul 21, 2014)

jack97 said:


> You and the modelers (IPPC) are asking that the western world bankrupt and ruin their economies just to satisfy the political agenda based on the outcomes of models that do not reflect reality....
> 
> Yet the IPPC still wants to ruin the economy, which is troubling....




These statements come off as conspiracy theory nonsense. You may want to re-phrase them so they sound less delusional. Read them back to yourself objectively. This is the point where the anti-climate change crowd shows their hand. The concern isn't long term global health. It's short term profit.


----------



## jack97 (Jul 21, 2014)

Edd said:


> These statements come off as conspiracy theory nonsense. You may want to re-phrase them so they sound less delusional. Read them back to yourself objectively. This is the point where the anti-climate change crowd shows their hand. The concern isn't long term global health. It's short term profit.




Yep, I hear ya.. it is about short term profits, however that may set an economic trend that may take many years to recover. That will hurt in general. 

The issue I have is as of 2008, US has spent close to 80 billion on climate research. given how the models work and their results, that money could have been better spent else where. The IPCC never cared about the accuracy of the models, it was never about science.


----------



## jack97 (Jul 21, 2014)

Getting this back to the Winter forecast thread.... JB called it this week end. He thinks the planet is going to be cooling for the next 20 to 30 years. Just to be clear that I do not distort reality... cooling in terms of the temps abnormality having a negative trend. How this relates to winter is it would be the back drop for some very cold weather. 



statement around 3:00 mark
http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-july-19-2014


----------



## Not Sure (Jul 21, 2014)

jack97 said:


> Getting this back to the Winter forecast thread.... JB called it this week end. He thinks the planet is going to be cooling for the next 20 to 30 years. Just to be clear that I do not distort reality... cooling in terms of the temps abnormality having a negative trend. How this relates to winter is it would be the back drop for some very cold weather.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Simalar to 1967....Hmmm    1968 would be better
http://www.uvm.edu/~empact/data/gendateplot.php3?table=SummitStation&title=Mount+Mansfield+Summit+Station&xskip=7&xparam=Date&yparam=Depth&year%5B%5D=1967&year%5B%5D=1968&width=800&height=600&smooth=0&csv=0&totals=0


----------



## fbrissette (Jul 21, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> Can we all just agree to stop feeding this troll?



I'm done arguing climate on this forum.  Joe Bastardi just called three decades of cooling.  There's nothing left to argue about.


----------



## jack97 (Jul 21, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> I'm done arguing climate on this forum.  Joe Bastardi just called three decades of cooling.  There's nothing left to argue about.



Lighten up frisbee. JB's prediction will save me from turning into a vegan.

http://www.peta.org/issues/animals-used-for-food/global-warming/


----------



## deadheadskier (Jul 22, 2014)

Edd said:


> These statements come off as conspiracy theory nonsense. You may want to re-phrase them so they sound less delusional. Read them back to yourself objectively. This is the point where the anti-climate change crowd shows their hand. The concern isn't long term global health. It's short term profit.



I tend to agree

Also, Jack, is it necessary to refer to fbrisette as Frisbee?   Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to signal you out.  I know there's been mud flung back and forth from both sides on this issue.  It's been pretty tame and it's fine; typical internet message board arguing.  He probably doesn't care much, but it seems somewhat condescending to me and that can make some of your points get lost.  The same would be true if every time he addressed you, he called you Joke.

It's quite clear how passionate you are in your stance against AGW.  You might win more support, which I assume you want, by leaving the low brow name calling out in your arguments no?


----------



## jack97 (Jul 22, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> Also, Jack, is it necessary to refer to fbrisette as Frisbee?   Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to signal you out.  I know there's been mud flung back and forth from both sides on this issue.  It's been pretty tame and it's fine; typical internet message board arguing.  He probably doesn't care much, but it seems somewhat condescending to me and that can make some of your points get lost.  The same would be true if every time he addressed you, he called you Joke.
> 
> It's quite clear how passionate you are in your stance against AGW.  You might win more support, which I assume you want, by leaving the low brow name calling out in your arguments no?




fbrisette used frisbee in his signature most likely as a joke for my typical typos and grammar mistakes. If he thought it was fun then why not.

In terms of winning support, I rather people look at the data and see what is happening around them than focus on the way I present it. Anyways, I may be go out for a while. I just wanted to put it out there, the natural causes to climate and we may see it soon, some established scientists have  stated that it dwarfs our contributions.


----------



## dlague (Jul 22, 2014)




----------



## BenedictGomez (Jul 22, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> I'm done arguing climate on this forum.  *Joe Bastardi just called three decades of cooling.  There's nothing left to argue about.*



Did he call it 15 years ago?  If so, he's already halfway there.  

If the glove don't fit, you must acquit; and if there is a pause, you have no cause.*

*I need to buy that bumper sticker


----------



## MadMadWorld (Jul 23, 2014)

What'd I miss?


----------



## fbrissette (Jul 23, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> What'd I miss?



A thread was hijacked.
Winter 2015 may or may not be a good one.
You can call me frisbee.


----------



## dlague (Jul 23, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> A thread was hijacked.
> Winter 2015 may or may not be a good one.
> You can call me frisbee.



Was it ever - hijacked big time!  That's par for this forum which makes it so fun.


----------



## Puck it (Jul 23, 2014)

dlague said:


> Was it ever - hijacked big time! That's par for this forum which makes it so fun.




Fanatics are on both sides.


----------



## Cannonball (Jul 23, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> If the glove don't fit, you must acquit; and if there is a pause, you have no cause.*
> 
> *I need to buy that bumper sticker



Nice, the Johnny Cochran approach!!  The man sure could twist and confuse the obvious truth, I'll give you that.


----------



## jack97 (Jul 24, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Did he call it 15 years ago?  If so, he's already halfway there.
> 
> If the glove don't fit, you must acquit; and if there is a pause, you have no cause.*
> 
> *I need to buy that bumper sticker





Cannonball said:


> Nice, the Johnny Cochran approach!!  The man sure could twist and confuse the obvious truth, I'll give you that.




Cannon, typical response from you ... thought it was getting dull for you, yet you still want to play?




BenedictGomez, you may know this but I figure I would put it out again. JB and Aleo & William Gray have always believe the ocean has been a better indicator for predicted the weather. Gray has been one of the first to suggest how the ocean drives climate. So it does not surprise me JB made a call that we would get cooling during the temp pause.

And speaking of pause here's another pause, the global ocean heat content may have paused starting 2003. The NODC link below shows this. The plot on the upper right graph is still up for debate among the scientists; the data is based on the new ARGO system, some adjustment had to be made on the results and it has made the alarmist question the overall validity of the data set. If you use the old data set, the 2003 to present is slightly increasing while the new data shows a decreasing trend. Either way you look at it, the ocean heat has been slowing down in recent times. In addition, notice the altimetry plots, it shows a steady rate as one would expect during an interglacial period.

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/SatelliteData/Education/DLESE/2008/lesson_2008_files/Altimetry_and_HC.jpg



here's the OHC for the North Atlantic, its losing heat. Kind of curious, in the US, winds blow from west to east, all that co2 should be accumulating in the Atlantic and heating up the region, still don't see it. The only place OHC is positive is in the Indian ocean. Haha... we definitely have to stop India from emitting their CO2. *Or* the OHC is another indication of a natural cycle. 




IMO, given the OHC is doing this, it's yet another indicator that JB and Aleo is making this call.


----------



## fbrissette (Jul 24, 2014)

jack97 said:


> View attachment 13023



Note - I am not arguing.  Just providing peer-reviewed papers.

General reference:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2014/07/21/june-was-hottest-on-record/

If you want to brush up on your understanding on heat uptake by ocean, I suggest you read below and not rely on Jack97.  Only a 2014 sample are cited below.  There are hundreds of papers on the topic in the past 10 years.  A small sample from 20 + scientists. Surprisingly, I could not find any papers saying the oceans were cooling off, and not a single paper by Bastardi (on any topic).

Lyman, John M., and Gregory C. Johnson. "Estimating global ocean heat content changes in the upper 1800 m since 1950 and the influence of climatology choice*." _Journal of Climate 27.5 (2014): 1945-1957.

_Frölicher, Thomas, et al. "Anthropogenic carbon and heat uptake in CMIP5 models: The dominance of the Southern Ocean." _EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts. Vol. 16. 2014.

_Rose, Brian EJ, et al. "The dependence of transient climate sensitivity and radiative feedbacks on the spatial pattern of ocean heat uptake." _Geophysical Research Letters 41.3 (2014): 1071-1078.

_Masters, Troy. "Observational estimate of climate sensitivity from changes in the rate of ocean heat uptake and comparison to CMIP5 models." _Climate Dynamics 42.7-8 (2014): 2173-2181.

_Kosaka, Yu. "Atmospheric science: Increasing wind sinks heat." _Nature Climate Change 4.3 (2014): 172-173.

_Palter, Jaime B., et al. "The deep ocean buoyancy budget and its temporal variability." _Journal of Climate 27.2 (2014): 551-573.

_


----------



## Cannonball (Jul 24, 2014)

jack97 said:


> Cannon, typical response from you ... thought it was getting dull for you, yet you still want to play



Well, like I said predictable = dull.  But resurrecting the ghost of Johnny Cochran to argue against AGW was totally unpredictable!!  I guess if someone believes that OJ was innocent anything is possible.


----------



## dlague (Jul 24, 2014)

Squirrel!


----------



## MadMadWorld (Jul 24, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> Well, like I said predictable = dull.  But resurrecting the ghost of Johnny Cochran to argue against AGW was totally unpredictable!!  I guess if someone believes that OJ was innocent anything is possible.



At least 12 people did!


----------



## Cannonball (Jul 24, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> At least 12 people did!



Haha!  Fair enough.


----------



## jack97 (Jul 24, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> There are hundreds of papers on the topic in the past 10 years.  A small sample from 20 + scientists.



More than half those papers you listed rely on simulations, most likely a model from the GCM5 set which admittedly is known to be inaccurate. 

 So far ARGO is the best observations we have in measuring ocean temps at various depths. There have been several papers that have analyzed these data sets, results shows the global OHC pause. If true, invalidates the missing heat suggestion. Another paper in the press by two prominent oceanographers which claims the observations do not rationalize the missing heat has gone lower into the deep ocean. There's some more which shows satellite reading; SST and long wave outgoing radiation that does not support CO2 forcing. 




fbrissette said:


> Surprisingly, I could not find any papers saying the oceans were cooling off, and not a single paper by Bastardi (on any topic).



Bastardi is a private/commercial meteorologist. His company survives by the accuracy of their predictions. If forecasters had the track record of the alarmist using their GCM models, they would be out of a job in the private sector. US government funding for global warming, climate change or climate disruption up to this date is roughly 136 billion, scholars trying to get their phd & tenure have to focus their studies to this political agenda. It's no wonder all of the scientist who believe in natural cause climate change have secure positions; tenure, chaired, head of department or emeritus title.


----------



## fbrissette (Jul 24, 2014)

jack97 said:


> More than half those papers you listed rely on simulations,



No.



jack97 said:


> most likely a model from the GCM5 set which admittedly is known to be inaccurate.



There is no such thing called a GCM5 set.  



jack97 said:


> So far ARGO is the best observations we have in measuring ocean temps at various depths.



One of the best dataset.  Far from perfect like all other datasets of ocean temperatures.



jack97 said:


> There have been several papers that have analyzed these data sets, results shows the global OHC pause.



False.  Can you please provide citations to those 'several' imaginary papers ?  (not blogs, not websites - peer-reviewed papers).



jack97 said:


> Bastardi is a private/commercial meteorologist.



That's precisely my point. His job is to provide weather forecasts a few days ahead to private clients.  For the nth time, meteorology and climatology are two very different disciplines.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jul 24, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> His job is to provide weather forecasts a few days ahead to private clients.  For the nth time,* meteorology and climatology are two very different disciplines.*



Correct.

With the former, it will be known if you're right or wrong near immediately, and your career will depend on results.

With the latter, it will take decades to know if you're right or wrong, and you'll be dead before you can face accountability.

I'm going to sue my guidance counselor.


----------



## marcski (Jul 25, 2014)

Less talk, more skiing!.


----------



## jack97 (Jul 25, 2014)

For someone who does not want to argue or done with arguing.... it seems like you are but not.:roll:






fbrissette said:


> There is no such thing called a GCM5 set.



haha... yep, too many acronyms in my head, forgive me, I'm a product of my environment. 




fbrissette said:


> One of the best dataset. Far from perfect like all other datasets of ocean temperatures.



Perhaps, but for measuring temp at various ocean depths ARGO is the latest we have and is better than its predecessor.




fbrissette said:


> Can you please provide citations to those 'several' imaginary papers ? (not blogs, not websites - peer-reviewed papers).



Lots out there, but not in Nature Climate Change. They are in more rigorous journals. Just look up Knox and Douglass, Wunsch and Heimback for OHC. I think they are tenured or are emeritus.

I have some more if you go on about satellite measurements. 




fbrissette said:


> That's precisely my point. His job is to provide weather forecasts a *few days* ahead to private clients. For the nth time, meteorology and climatology are two very different disciplines.




JB just made a call about our winter and the climate for the next 20 to 30 years. BTW, so its ok for you and AGW to cite land surface showing one day or one month is the *hottest* in recorded history which includes the reconstructed temps since late 1800's.


----------



## dlague (Jul 25, 2014)

marcski said:


> Less talk, more skiing!.



Yes that was the original thinking!  I am hoping that we get at least as good a winter as last minus January!


----------



## Not Sure (Jul 29, 2014)

Lots of interesting reads lately
http://wattsupwiththat.com/


----------



## jack97 (Jul 30, 2014)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Lots of interesting reads lately
> http://wattsupwiththat.com/





Another interesting place, 1300 peer reviewed paper supporting natural cause climate change. You can find papers on the cloud feedbacks. In addition, papers by Lindzen and others published early to mid 1990s. Back then, these guys never drank the kool aid because they needed to see cause and effect.

+1300 peer-reviewed-papers


----------



## dlague (Jul 31, 2014)

In line with other forecast I guess!

http://snowbrains.com/el-nino-2014-update-noaa/


----------



## Rowsdower (Jul 31, 2014)

jack97 said:


> Another interesting place, 1300 peer reviewed paper supporting natural cause climate change. You can find papers on the cloud feedbacks. In addition, papers by Lindzen and others published early to mid 1990s. Back then, these guys never drank the kool aid because they needed to see cause and effect.
> 
> +1300 peer-reviewed-papers



Many of those aren't from reputable, peer reviewed scientific journals. Others are commentary pieces, not research articles. The actual peer reviewed articles there are mis-cited. They talk about certain aspects of the climate, weather phenomena, environment, or ecology, but whose purpose has nothing to do with offering a competing theory to AGW. They seem to mischaracterize scientific research. We do not all sign onto broad, overarching theories that guide all our studies. I can still study natural variations in climate, but my data, together with other observations are still best explained by AGW at present. 

In other words, they are citing papers explaining natural mechanisms of climate change without understanding that these don't disprove AGW, rather, they are all factored into AGW models. 

Please don't mislead people with non-peer reviewed articles and the misrepresentation of actual scientific articles in the future. 

Thank you.


----------



## jack97 (Jul 31, 2014)

Rowsdower said:


> Please don't mislead people with non-peer reviewed articles and the misrepresentation of actual scientific articles in the future.



Who are you to say these papers are misleading? Most of the papers are authored by scientist and professors that are tenured or are emeritus status.  They are free to pursuit there own scientist interest. And yes, they are peer reviewed.

BTW, telling people these papers are misleading is rather arrogant, people who have interest in this should decide themselves.


----------



## Rowsdower (Aug 1, 2014)

jack97 said:


> Who are you to say these papers are misleading? Most of the papers are authored by scientist and professors that are tenured or are emeritus status.  They are free to pursuit there own scientist interest. And yes, they are peer reviewed.
> 
> BTW, telling people these papers are misleading is rather arrogant, people who have interest in this should decide themselves.



I already explained why. What's there that is peer-reviewed is presented in a manner that suggests it contradicts AGW when that is not the case.


----------



## jack97 (Aug 2, 2014)

Rowsdower said:


> What's there that is peer-reviewed is presented in a manner that suggests it contradicts AGW when that is not the case.



I read thru some of papers by Lindzen, Ballings, Spencer, Christy, Douglass, Knox, Soon and Idso. They suggest natural causes, they never bought into AGW. I would suggest you read them, especially the papers by Lindzen since it is not paywalled. Lindzen has been very critical of the lack of theoretical principles in the GCM models used to support the greenhouse effect and the climate sensitivity projected by these models. Below is the link of one of his many papers, first one talks about the lack of cloud feedback in the GCMs back in the early 90s. Second paper shows he is still critical of the models since the observations are diverging from the models. 

http://www-eaps.mit.edu/faculty/lindzen/cooglobwrm.pdf

http://www-eaps.mit.edu/faculty/lindzen/230_TakingGr.pdf




Trenberth and Fasullo have suggested the heat due to CO2 forcing has gone into the ocean. The papers by Douglass and Knox (no pay wall) shows, since 2003 the ocean (heat content) is cooling or in a pause. This does contradict AGW given the hypothesis implies most heating is due to CO2 forcing. As seen with observations, CO2 is monotonically increasing but the ocean temp, land temp and troposphere temps have stagnated. Below is the links to Douglass & Knox, last paper definitively argues against Trenberth and Fasullo that the heat is hiding in the ocean.

http://www.pas.rochester.edu/~douglass/papers/Douglass_Knox_pla373aug31.pdf

http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=3446#.U9zTuPldWSo



I can list more but I'm not sure if you really interested or if you want stay in your comfort zone with AGW dogma.


----------



## billski (Aug 6, 2014)

http://firsthandweather.com/283/early-2014-15-winter-forecast-region-region-breakdown/


----------



## dlague (Aug 6, 2014)

billski said:


> http://firsthandweather.com/283/early-2014-15-winter-forecast-region-region-breakdown/



That works for me!


----------



## JDMRoma (Aug 6, 2014)

billski said:


> http://firsthandweather.com/283/early-2014-15-winter-forecast-region-region-breakdown/



Well not to be a Debbie Downer but it looks more like last year with more snow in the southern part of NH and Mass than
there is up North NH / Ski areas. Not that last year sucked or anything but Most of the season there was more snow in my backyard than above Concord NH.....Just sayn


----------



## Puck it (Aug 6, 2014)

This does not look quite right for Calif. being an el nino year.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Aug 6, 2014)

These winter forecasts made in July are nothing more than attempts to generate web hits and marketing buzz.

It's one thing to point out analogues or possible trends, but snow maps?  Jeesh.


----------



## dlague (Aug 6, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> These winter forecasts made in July are nothing more than attempts to generate web hits and marketing buzz.
> 
> It's one thing to point out analogues or possible trends, but snow maps?  Jeesh.



Hey if anything it emerges the AGW discussions - speaking of which - it has been very quiet!


----------



## jack97 (Aug 6, 2014)

Puck it said:


> This does not look quite right for Calif. being an el nino year.




The blogger mentions a el nino modoki (last term is japanese for similar but different). Warm water are more toward central pacific, hence trends will be different for CA.


----------



## jack97 (Aug 6, 2014)

dlague said:


> Hey if anything it emerges the AGW discussions - speaking of which - it has been very quiet!


----------



## Not Sure (Aug 6, 2014)

http://www.weathertrends360.com/
A freind had a conversation with the guy who runs this Co.
was interesting , claims for my area colder  and average precip.
Predicted a major Hurricane between FL and NC in 2011 Irene.
looks like a lot of big money relys on his forecasts

last years predictions
http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blo...nationals-2013-2014-Top-10-Winter-Predic-1670


----------



## moresnow (Aug 6, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> These *winter forecasts made in July* are nothing more than attempts to generate web hits and marketing buzz.



But it was posted on the 31st, so it was practically August. Winter forecasts made in August, as you know, are far more reliable.


----------



## skiNEwhere (Aug 7, 2014)

Has anyone ever gone back after the season has ended to analyze how accurate these maps were?

It's good for pre season hype but I would like to see how accurate they were after the season ends.

I read somewhere that punxstunaney (sp?) Phil was accurate only 39% of the time. Who's taking the over and under for this map?


----------



## fbrissette (Aug 7, 2014)

skiNEwhere said:


> Has anyone ever gone back after the season has ended to analyze how accurate these maps were?



Why would they do something showing their long-term forecast was BS ?

There is a lot of scientific literature on seasonal forecasts and hindcasting studies with weather models.   Here's my take as to the main conclusions:

- seasonal forecasts have gotten a lot better over the past decade, and will continue to do so in the future
- precipitation is the most difficult variable to forecast
- the skill of seasonal forecast is mostly evaluated with respect to their ability at predicting large scales sea surface anomalies (pressure and temperatures) and NOT on predicting precipitation over any given regions.  Modelers will ALL tell you that predicting winter precipitation in the summer makes no sense.  
- What the guys producing those BS maps are doing is using those predicted anomalies and they transform them into seasonal precipitation forecasts based on preconceived notions that such anomaly correlates with this and that (which is partly true for some regions, but definitely not for the North-east).
- If you want some skill (meaning better than random) for winter precipitation, you may get some for the month of December when the November 1st seasonal forecast comes out.  And that's the state of the art.


----------



## dlague (Aug 7, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> Why would they do something showing their long-term forecast was BS ?
> 
> There is a lot of scientific literature on seasonal forecasts and hindcasting studies with weather models.   Here's my take as to the main conclusions:
> 
> ...



Farmers Almanac - is where it is at!


----------



## Puck it (Aug 7, 2014)

Not 2014-2015 but it looks like 2099 is going to be a scorcher!!!!


----------



## skiNEwhere (Aug 7, 2014)

Damn. There go my ski plans for my 114th birthday


----------



## billski (Aug 7, 2014)

For me, this thread is all wishful thinking.   We can't even get one week out forecasts right.
BTW, liast winter, many the ponds in the North Maine Woods did not have thick enough ice to support one skinny skier, let alone a snow machine


----------



## billski (Aug 7, 2014)

skiNEwhere said:


> I read somewhere that punxstunaney (sp?) Phil was accurate only 39% of the time. Who's taking the over and under for this map?



snort.  how would you define "six more weeks of winter", or whatever it is.  From what location would this be measured.  Does PP has a "forecast area?".   Sounds like the only thing PP is good for is some groundhog sandwiches.


----------



## billski (Aug 7, 2014)

Puck it said:


> Not 2014-2015 but it looks like 2099 is going to be a scorcher!!!!



Another useless PhD thesis I suppose...


----------



## dlague (Aug 7, 2014)

billski said:


> snort.  how would you define "six more weeks of winter", or whatever it is.  From what location would this be measured.  Does PP has a "forecast area?".   Sounds like the only thing PP is good for is some groundhog sandwiches.



Hey, easy now!  I am rather fond of the little guy.  His cousin is in our yard.


----------



## billski (Aug 7, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> There is a lot of scientific literature on seasonal forecasts and hindcasting studies with weather models.


I'd be curious to hear whether the heat-seekers or snow-lovers are doing the happy -dance and where in the world the forecasts might be more reliable.   How about Hawaii?  I hear the weather is quite stable there.


----------



## billski (Aug 7, 2014)

dlague said:


> Hey, easy now!  I am rather fond of the little guy.  His cousin is in our yard.



If we got all his cousins together and they all saw/didn't see their shadow, would the forecast be more accurate?   If so, I'll skip the sandwiches.


----------



## skiNEwhere (Aug 7, 2014)

billski said:


> snort.  how would you define "six more weeks of winter", or whatever it is.  From what location would this be measured.  Does PP has a "forecast area?".   Sounds like the only thing PP is good for is some groundhog sandwiches.



My definition, from when I lived in Mass, was the temperature not reaching the mid 60's in those 6 weeks


----------



## BenedictGomez (Aug 7, 2014)

skiNEwhere said:


> *Has anyone ever gone back after the season has ended to analyze how accurate these maps were?*



Monkey flipping a coin awful.

Like I said, analogues can be useful.  And although scientists don't know why, there is a statistically significant correlation between Siberian snow-cover and our winters.  Start paying attention to the weather in Siberia a few months from now.



Puck it said:


> Not 2014-2015 but *it looks like 2099 is going to be a scorcher!!!!*



Yes, and according to _"An Inconvenient Truth"_ the icecap was supposed to have completely melted by Summer of 2013.

_*WE DIHDN'T LISSENNNN!!!!




*_


----------



## Not Sure (Aug 7, 2014)

billski said:


> snort.  how would you define "six more weeks of winter", or whatever it is.  From what location would this be measured.  Does PP has a "forecast area?".   Sounds like the only thing PP is good for is some groundhog sandwiches.



It's not about the forecast...it's another reason to party..those people are gooned at 7 in the morning.


----------



## jack97 (Aug 9, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Like I said, analogues can be useful.  And although scientists don't know why, there is a statistically significant correlation between Siberian snow-cover and our winters.  Start paying attention to the weather in Siberia a few months from now.



yep... analogues are useful. The wildcard in all of this is that the sun has become less active. Some scientist thinks if the upcoming cycles reamains less active, then we will be in a minimum... meaning global cooling. 

BTW, another paper by a group of solar physicists did a reconstruction with carbon 14 and archaeomagnetic dating, their findings was the period between 1950 to 2009 was a grand maximum. A very active period that occurs every 3000 years. Correlates well to the warming period we had from the 1960 up to present.


----------



## dlague (Aug 13, 2014)

Just posted on AZ FB Page by our esteemed Nick (assumption)!  Glad to see that he is buying into the hype!

https://www.facebook.com/alpinezn/photos/a.10150463072900504.642145.284597450503/10154479749730504/?type=1&theater


----------



## Abubob (Aug 26, 2014)

An interview with "The Niño" with Joel Gratz. According to this we might expect a weak to moderate el niño which means all bets are off IMHO. Seems the stronger the niño the better the precipitation in the NE with weak niños not so good.

https://opensnow.com/news/post/how-will-el-nino-impact-snowfall-for-the-2014-2015-ski-season


----------



## skiberg (Aug 27, 2014)

I have spent a lot of time reading about the effect of an El Nino, in fact there are websites that have crunched the numbers on this. They reviewed the historical snow fall amounts at every ski resort in the US and correlated the strength of an El Nino. The conclusion is that there is absolutely no correlation between El Nino and greater snowfall, anywhere, even in California. Sorry for the bad news, basically it wait and see.


----------



## dlague (Aug 27, 2014)

skiberg said:


> I have spent a lot of time reading about the effect of an El Nino, in fact there are websites that have crunched the numbers on this. They reviewed the historical snow fall amounts at every ski resort in the US and correlated the strength of an El Nino. The conclusion is that there is absolutely no correlation between El Nino and greater snowfall, anywhere, even in California. Sorry for the bad news, basically it wait and see.



Then how do we get greater snowfall!  We need to know what to look for!


----------



## skiberg (Aug 27, 2014)

Pray to Ullr. I know an awful lot has been written about this on this forum, but I think the single biggest thing is the negative NAO and or the North Atlantic/Greenland block. Basically that's the biggie. Best place I know to follow this is http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/ . This guy does a nice job of mid-long term projections.


----------



## skiNEwhere (Aug 27, 2014)

This is a great article https://opensnow.com/news/post/another-snow-forecast-for-the-2014-2015-winter

They actually went back and looked at the prediction for the 13/14 season and compared it to the results. Obviously, take these forecasts with a grain of salt.


----------



## jack97 (Aug 27, 2014)

^^^

The blogger uses analogs to forecast as well. From the comment section where the blogger replied to someone...

Jeff - you're talking about looking at historical trends in major climate and ocean patterns to help forecast the future weather. For others reading this comment, that's called an "analog" technique because you look in the past for similar years (analogs) and then try to match those past years to the current year. Once you do that, you see what happened in the past and infer that the same thing will happen in the future.
The key to this technique is picking which historical years to use, and that's not an easy call. Joe Bastardi (formerly of Accuweather, now of Weatherbell.com) and his colleague Joe D'Aleo do very good work here, and I've learned a lot by following them on Weatherbell.com. But they aren't perfect, because if they were, they'd be very wealthy and in charge of a large company.
I've looked a bit at *analog years for weak to moderate El Ninos with a warm PDO (temperature of the north Pacific Ocean) and a neutral to warm AMO (temperature of the Atlantic Ocean)*. There are some trends that I hope to tease out, but there's no slam dunk snow forecast for much of the western US.


----------



## skiNEwhere (Aug 27, 2014)

No matter how you look at it, it seems like Colorado is going to have an average year.


----------



## ScottySkis (Aug 27, 2014)

skiNEwhere said:


> No matter how you look at it, it seems like Colorado is going to have an average year.



You know the truth is as much as we all want to believe it will snow more then ave any where a hill that offers skiing and snowboarding other then a few weeks out for low and high presure their is no way of knowing what will happen so when it snows go have lots of fun.


----------



## jack97 (Aug 28, 2014)

skiNEwhere said:


> No matter how you look at it, it seems like Colorado is going to have an average year.




From another site.... if the weak el nino occurs in the winter. Mid to south Ca might be in line for some "unprecedented" mud slides given the present drought conditions. 











Their forecast is based on analogs going back to 1950







http://weatheradvance.com/category/northeast/

scroll down to see there forecast for snow.


----------



## Abubob (Aug 28, 2014)

ScottySkis said:


> You know the truth is as much as we all want to believe it will snow more then ave any where a hill that offers skiing and snowboarding other then a few weeks out for low and high presure their is no way of knowing what will happen so when it snows go have lots of fun.



Yer missin the point my Scottish. We NEED to KNOW!! 

This chart shows exactly how much snow we're gonna get:


----------



## Not Sure (Sep 1, 2014)

http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blo...Forecasting-The-2014-2015-Winter-Outlook-1935
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGO3IXzDuaw&list=UUsMKmEuaig0VWvAbeJnylWQ

Not quite as optimistic as I would like .


----------



## dlague (Sep 2, 2014)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blo...Forecasting-The-2014-2015-Winter-Outlook-1935
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGO3IXzDuaw&list=UUsMKmEuaig0VWvAbeJnylWQ
> 
> Not quite as optimistic as I would like .




Yup That one was looking pretty Average!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Sep 28, 2014)

Getting back to Siberian snow, I read tonight on a FB post of a weather guy I follow that there is ALREADY an unusually large portion of the area covered in early season snow.  Fingers crossed.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Sep 29, 2014)

Coming from a guy that knows nothing about weather.....is there any correlation between Atlantic hurricane season and winter weather? For example, it was a very quiet hurricane season in 92 (with the exception  of Andrew) and the 92-93 ski season was epic.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 15, 2014)

Crappuweather is first up this year, releasing their winter prediction today.  Predicting a very snowy and cold northeastern winter.








> *After record-shattering temperatures and high snow totals last winter  in the Northeast, a similar theme will continue into the 2014-2015  season. Cold air will surge into the Northeast in late November, but the  brunt of the season will hold off until January and February. *The polar  vortex, the culprit responsible for several days of below-zero  temperatures last year, will slip down into the region from time to  time, delivering blasts of arctic air. *"I think, primarily, we'll see that happening in mid-January into  February but again, it's not going to be the same type of situation as  we saw last year, not as persistent*," AccuWeather.com Expert Long-Range  Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. "The cold of last season was extreme because it was so persistent. We  saw readings that we haven't seen in a long time: 15- to 20-below-zero  readings."* In addition to the cold air, a big snow season could be in the  offing. Higher-than-normal snow totals are forecast west of the I-95  corridor.* "Places like Harrisburg, down to Hagerstown getting into the  mountains, the Appalachians, I think that's where you're going to see  your bigger, heavier amounts," Pastelok said. Philadelphia, which received a whopping 68.9 inches last season, is  forecast to close this season with snow totals just above normal. New  York City will likely follow suit. The I-95 corridor and eastward could fall victim to changeover systems, which will provide a messy wintry mix at times.





http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-2014-2015-winter-forecast/35422753


----------



## St. Bear (Oct 16, 2014)

WeatherWorks
http://www.weatherworksinc.com/winter-outlook-2014-2015


----------



## dlague (Oct 16, 2014)

St. Bear said:


> WeatherWorks
> http://www.weatherworksinc.com/winter-outlook-2014-2015



Hope this holds true!  Not liking this warm weather!


----------



## fbrissette (Oct 16, 2014)

dlague said:


> Hope this holds true!  Not liking this warm weather!



Won't last.  They're calling for light snow Sunday at Jay.


----------



## Puck it (Oct 16, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> Won't last. They're calling for light snow Sunday at Jay.



Too bad it is not colder and the hurricane was a bit closer like the event in '05 with Wilma.


----------



## skiberg (Oct 16, 2014)

WeatherWorks
http://www.weatherworksinc.com/winter-outlook-2014-2015

That link was helpful and certainly keep the optimism up.
"These years include 1976-77, 1977-78, and 1993-94. Supporting the cold is an overall negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) this October, which is expected to continue through much of the upcoming winter"

This I what I was looking for. Negative NAO is the goods for us.


----------



## skiberg (Oct 16, 2014)

I skied after that storm at wildcat. It was crazy, at the bottom of the hill some trees still were holding and shedding leaves and they had fallen on top of the snow. When you skied through them they whooshed up behind you like a car on a NE road in autumn. Very surreal.


----------



## Quietman (Oct 16, 2014)

Not wanting to rain on the parade, but the Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) forecast that was released today is predicting this


----------



## St. Bear (Oct 16, 2014)

Have no fear.  This was their outlook last year.


----------



## dlague (Oct 16, 2014)

Quietman said:


> Not wanting to rain on the parade, but the Climate Prediction Center (NWS) forecast that was released today is predicting this
> 
> View attachment 14036
> 
> View attachment 14037



Not buying that one!  Warmer than normal north and cooler south?  That is a weird pattern.


----------



## St. Bear (Oct 16, 2014)

dlague said:


> Not buying that one!  Warmer than normal north and cooler south?  That is a weird pattern.



That's relative to normal, not absolute temp.


----------



## dlague (Oct 16, 2014)

St. Bear said:


> That's relative to normal, not absolute temp.



Still not buying it!


----------



## jack97 (Oct 16, 2014)

Report on latest NOAA winter prediction and it mentions the contradiction from some of the privates; Accuweather & Weatherbell. Interesting that they also mentioned the Siberian snow cover correlation from Cohen.

http://www.bostonherald.com/news_op...s_dont_expect_winter_to_be_polar_vortex_redux


----------



## 4aprice (Oct 16, 2014)

jack97 said:


> Report on latest NOAA winter prediction and it mentions the contradiction from some of the privates; Accuweather & Weatherbell. Interesting that they also mentioned the Siberian snow cover correlation from Cohen.
> 
> http://www.bostonherald.com/news_op...s_dont_expect_winter_to_be_polar_vortex_redux



I don't trust anything the Fed's say these days.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## jack97 (Oct 16, 2014)

4aprice said:


> I don't trust anything the Fed's say these days.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Just throwing it out there for the record. This way we can judge how accurate they are versus the privates and the Siberian correlation. 

If I truly voice how I feel about the Feds, the politically correct police will interject.


----------



## skiberg (Oct 16, 2014)

Warmer in and of itself does not mean much to me. Precipitation is the biggest factor. It may be slightly warmer but all the precept could fall as snow. In any event if we in fact have a block I think that generally means more precip. It appears we are going to have a block, it appears the NAO is negative, it seems like a good bet that we are going to have more precept. One half of the equation looks positive. We just have to hope it stays cold enough for most of the precept to be snow.


----------



## fbrissette (Oct 16, 2014)

jack97 said:


> Just throwing it out there for the record. This way we can judge how accurate they are versus the privates and the Siberian correlation.
> 
> If I truly voice how I feel about the Feds, the politically correct police will interject.



Seasonal forecasts have little skill in the east. In other words, it is difficult to have a forecasting record that is better than random.  This means that you absolutely cannot pick and choose one or two years to judge who is better.  In some odd year the random weather generator will beat all of the forecaster.    If you want to get into the '_whose forecast is the best_' debate, you need to look objectively at several years of forecasting.  

Whether you like the feds or not, without them there are no numerical weather models, no observational network, no weather balloons, no satellite data and, obviously, no forecasting outside of Torricelli's barometer.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 16, 2014)

St. Bear said:


> Have no fear.  This was their outlook last year.



What makes this even worse is NOAA was essentially an outlier / contrarian call.



4aprice said:


> I don't trust anything the Fed's say these days.



I trust NOAA for most things, and for general weather, but I dont trust them on anything climate related, as it's _"all over-the-top warming bias all the time"_.  Regardless of your position on the AGM issue, pro or con, this _should_ be pretty obvious if you pay close attention to NOAA.  It's akin to watching a somewhat creepy sports fan rooting for his favorite team, and it's exceedingly political (which it shouldnt be).


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 16, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> *Whether you like the feds or not, without them there are no numerical weather models, no observational network*, no weather balloons, no satellite data and, obviously, no forecasting outside of Torricelli's barometer.



Well that's certainly not true.  In addition to NOAA, there's the Japanese (JMA), the Europeans (EURO), the Canadians (CMC), the UK (UKIE), not to mention several decent private for-profit entities.  Frankly the EURO trounces our weather models and with the 2013 upgrade out of Canada, Canada is better than us now too.   I honestly barely even look at the America weather package in the winter, and I run all my own winter weather models off the Canadians' suite (very user friendly, more accurate, and fewer biases than NOAA).


----------



## fbrissette (Oct 16, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Well that's certainly not true.  In addition to NOAA, there's the Japanese (JMA), the Europeans (EURO), the Canadians (CMC), the UK (UKIE), not to mention several decent private for-profit entities.  Frankly the EURO trounces our weather models and with the 2013 upgrade out of Canada, Canada is better than us now too.   I honestly barely even look at the America weather package in the winter, and I run all my own winter weather models off the Canadians' suite (very user friendly, more accurate, and fewer biases than NOAA).



I was talking 'Feds' in general.  All of those models come from government agencies of are funded by their respective governments. All of them.  Without Federal governments there is no modern weather science period.  I know it will be difficult for you to accept, but a central government can sometimes be useful.

There would be no private entities without the fundamental earth-observation infrastructure provided with governmental money around the world.  None. Zero.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 16, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> I was talking 'Feds' in general.



Gotcha.  Do Canadians _commonly_ use the term, "The Feds" to describe Ottawa & Canadian government?  The English dont.  The Aussies dont.  I had thought (perhaps incorrectly) it was a uniquely American term to describe DC and the US government.



fbrissette said:


> I know it will be difficult for you to accept, but a central government can sometimes be useful.



 I know it will be difficult for you to accept, but a shovel can sometimes be useful.*

*I can say silly, obvious, and "red herring'ish" off-topic things too


----------



## jack97 (Oct 16, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> Seasonal forecasts have little skill in the east. In other words, it is difficult to have a forecasting record that is better than random.  This means that you absolutely cannot pick and choose one or two years to judge who is better.  In some odd year the random weather generator will beat all of the forecaster.    *If you want to get into the 'whose forecast is the best' debate, you need to look objectively at several years of forecasting.*
> 
> Whether you like the feds or not, without them there are no numerical weather models, no observational network, no weather balloons, no satellite data and, obviously, no forecasting outside of Torricelli's barometer.




hmm... not the political police i thought that would response but close enuf. 

I totally agree with the bolded statement so that's why I originally put NOAA's forecast with no comment. However the charts showed NOAA was wrong last year, ircc JB and crew was hinting at a cold spell or saying the the AMO or other indexes was about to flip. For a good data set, you have to make a start at some point. 

And BTW, you could dead wrong about how I feel about federally funding in the states..... but that's another political debate.


----------



## slatham (Oct 17, 2014)

From the Boston Herald article: 

"A repeat of last winter is not particularly likely," said Halpert, acting director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.

Last winter was the coldest winter in 20+ years and in some places the coldest ever. My 11 year old knows that a repeat of last winter in not likely!

Further:

Similarly, the high pressure ridge off the Pacific coast that last year kept rain out of California during its crucial winter rainy season is unlikely to return in force, Halpert said.

Sure, if you look at the US model (CSV2). The other models show a strong West Coast ridge due to the warm water anomaly off the west coast, similar to last year. In fact, the CSV2 shows this anomaly as well, but for some reason doesn't build a ridge over it, which seems strange to say the least.

More:

A long-expected El Nino — a warming of the tropical Pacific that changes weather worldwide — makes last year's extremes less likely and the wetter, cooler south more likely, Halpert said.

True statement, EXCEPT the El Nino is weak at best and nowhere near where NOAA forecasted it to be. This guy is 3 months behind.

Final point - I think NOAA is only looking at their own model. The JMA and Euro - as well as some well constructed analogs - are much more bullish on a cold and snowy winter for the East Coast. This is why Accuweather, Weatherbell, etc are colder. As cold as last year? Doubtful. But a much different winter than this government talking head is forecasting.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 17, 2014)

slatham said:


> *"A repeat of last winter is not particularly likely," said Halpert, acting director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center* in College Park, Maryland. Last winter was the coldest winter in 20+ years and in some places the coldest ever. My 11 year old knows that a repeat of last winter in not likely!



This is the wiggle room they're going to spout _when _NOAA is proved wrong a few months from now.  

Instead of focusing on the fact that they're currently calling for _"warmer than average"_, they'll say it's warmer than _last year_ (which was a historically cold winter) and focus on that, statistically obvious part of their prediction.   It depends what the definition of is, is.




slatham said:


> *  I think NOAA is only looking at their own model.* The JMA and Euro - as well as some well constructed analogs - are much more bullish on a cold and snowy winter for the East Coast.



Absolutely.  Arrogantly.


----------



## Tin (Oct 17, 2014)

One thing is for sure, we will not be having October turns in the east.


----------



## slatham (Oct 17, 2014)

Don't be so sure Tin. Though I do doubt we'll have lift served turns.


----------



## catsup948 (Oct 17, 2014)

Rain all next week is not going to help.


----------



## Savemeasammy (Oct 17, 2014)

^ Top off the snowmaking ponds.  I'm good with that.


Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone mobile app


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## catsup948 (Oct 18, 2014)

Yes!


----------



## Abubob (Oct 19, 2014)

Snowing at the top of Sunapee today. 

...and apparently everywhere else as well.


----------



## catsup948 (Oct 21, 2014)

Abubob said:


> Snowing at the top of Sunapee today.
> 
> ...and apparently everywhere else as well.



Yes!


----------



## slatham (Oct 22, 2014)

Weatherbell revised their winter forecast. Most of NE temps now normal, which actually sounds nice, at least when matched up with the snowfall forecast. I'd rather have it be 26 and snowing than -10 and clear!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 22, 2014)

The 167% line just misses the Poconos, so this could be accurate.


----------



## Rowsdower (Oct 22, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> The 167% line just misses the Poconos, so this could be accurate.



It's close enough to give a false sense of hope. Yep.


----------



## thetrailboss (Oct 22, 2014)

slatham said:


> Weatherbell revised their winter forecast. Most of NE temps now normal, which actually sounds nice, at least when matched up with the snowfall forecast. I'd rather have it be 26 and snowing than -10 and clear!
> 
> View attachment 14084



That works for me....800 inch season!


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## skiNEwhere (Oct 22, 2014)

slatham said:


> Weatherbell revised their winter forecast. Most of NE temps now normal, which actually sounds nice, at least when matched up with the snowfall forecast. I'd rather have it be 26 and snowing than -10 and clear!



Maybe a good year to finally ski Taos, Silverton, or Telluride?


----------



## fbrissette (Oct 23, 2014)

thetrailboss said:


> That works for me....800 inch season!



Don't bet your house on this...


----------



## billski (Oct 23, 2014)

I'm curious to ask some meteorologists what it would take to get 400" blanket all over New England.  Not that it's possible, but I can dream.   I'll keep my house, thank you!


----------



## Puck it (Oct 23, 2014)

billski said:


> I'm curious to ask some meteorologists what it would take to get 400" blanket all over New England.



About 400" of snow.  I am no meteorlogist but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.


----------



## billski (Oct 23, 2014)

Puck it said:


> About 400" of snow.  I am no meteorlogist but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.


  Right.  You remind me why I always come to AZ for wise, sage wisdom and advice.    Now let's go ski!


----------



## Abubob (Oct 23, 2014)

billski said:


> I'm curious to ask some meteorologists what it would take to get 400" blanket all over New England.  Not that it's possible, but I can dream.   I'll keep my house, thank you!



If winter is a little over 12 weeks long then it would take a 33+" storm a week.


----------



## Puck it (Oct 23, 2014)

Abubob said:


> If winter is a little over 12 weeks long then it would take a 33+" storm a week.



So what you are saying is 400".


----------



## Abubob (Oct 23, 2014)

Puck it said:


> About 400" of snow.  I am no meteorlogist but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.



I haven't seen these in like forever.


----------



## Abubob (Oct 23, 2014)

Puck it said:


> So what you are saying is 400".



33.33'


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 23, 2014)

Abubob said:


> *If winter is a little over 12 weeks long then it would take a 33+" storm a week*.





Puck it said:


> *So what you are saying is 400"*.



396 actually.



Abubob said:


> *33.33'*



That's better.


----------



## Puck it (Oct 23, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> 396 actually.
> 
> 
> 
> That's better.


  No. Try again.  399.96".  I will only deduct 5 points though.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 23, 2014)

Puck it said:


> *No. Try again.  399.96".*  I will only deduct 5 points though.



Let he who would notice the missing 4/100th of an inch of snow cast the first stone.


----------



## Cannonball (Oct 23, 2014)

Abubob said:


> If winter is a little over 12 weeks long then it would take a 33+" storm a week.



Not to nitpick, but snow _loss _is our biggest problem in the NE.  So this really wouldn't cut it.  We'd need considerably more per week.  Or just one good 400" dumping.


----------



## fbrissette (Oct 23, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> Or just one good 400" dumping.



I'll sleep outside if needed, but I'll be first chair for that one.


----------



## moresnow (Oct 23, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> I'll sleep outside if needed, but I'll be first chair for that one.


It might take them a few days to dig the chairs out.


----------



## Puck it (Oct 23, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> Or just one good 400" dumping.


. I think I have had one of those.


----------



## dlague (Oct 25, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> I'll sleep outside if needed, but I'll be first chair for that one.



If you could find it!  It would take them days even to become operational!  Definitely would be some great parties while waiting though!


.......


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 28, 2014)

Newest Siberian snow data update.  This time from DT.     It still looks incredibly impressive.  Fingers crossed (toes too).


----------



## catsup948 (Oct 29, 2014)

Interesting to see if December is snowy this winter.  I feel like it's been awhile since a good December down here.  December is traditionally snowy month for a lot of New England.  I don't mind January thaw as much if I've had some great days before mlk day.


----------



## skiNEwhere (Oct 30, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Newest Siberian snow data update.  This time from DT.     It still looks incredibly impressive.  Fingers crossed (toes too).



Can you explain this rough correlation? Or is it simply, more early season snow in Siberia, more in the north east?


----------



## jack97 (Oct 30, 2014)

skiNEwhere said:


> Can you explain this rough correlation? Or is it simply, more early season snow in Siberia, more in the north east?



not sure what parameters bg is monitoring. but last years article about cohen' s analysis is the snow cover rate of advance in oct. 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...n-produces-amazingly-accurate-winter-outlook/


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 31, 2014)

skiNEwhere said:


> Can you explain this rough correlation? Or is it simply, more early season snow in Siberia, more in the north east?



Yes.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 31, 2014)

Another winter prediction.  Hopefully his being southern-based is jading his analysis, as while it's similar thinking,  his "colder and more snow" area is further south than most predictions.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 2, 2014)

Looks like the November forecast has complete flipped from the mild to slightly-warm and now looks like it might be fairly cool


----------



## jack97 (Nov 2, 2014)

Here's another forecast, its from weather channel. The forecast was prepared from their sister company, a private forecasting service. 

It aligns with some of the stuff mentioned before, in addition it mentions siberian snowcover correlation. NOAA does seem to be the outlier for this season. 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-forecast-outlook-theweatherchannel-20141015


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 2, 2014)

jack97 said:


> *NOAA does seem to be the outlier *for this season.



What else is new?    Cant wait for the Schadenfreude when NOAA's wrong again.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 2, 2014)

Here's a cool tool when you can day by day see the impressive Eurasian snowcover expansion. 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sample_loop2.php


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 3, 2014)

Bastardi trolling NOAA's Climate Forecasts hard, but he has a great point.  

Here are the last 9 daily seasonal climate forecast panels leading into November, all predicting a very warm November (which I was parroting in this thread based on their data).  

Now that November's actually here the reality is at least the 1st half is going to be cooler than normal, so if NOAA's to be correct then November 16th to November 30th better be an absolute scorcher of a blowtorch.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 3, 2014)

Another 2014/15 snow map from a professional met (Allan Huffman).  

Cant get enough snow map predictions....


----------



## catsup948 (Nov 3, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Another 2014/15 snow map from a professional met (Allan Huffman).
> 
> Cant get enough snow map predictions....



I'm loving these above average snow predictions!


----------



## KevinF (Nov 3, 2014)

Of the last two maps posted, one shows "near average" temps/snowfall for New England and one shows "much above normal snowfall" for New England.

I don't know how "advanced" a science meteorology is these days, but given that the various long-range forecasts have very little in common with each other, I'm thinking the field of long-range forecasting is in its infancy and these graphs should be viewed primarily for their humor value.


----------



## dlague (Nov 3, 2014)

KevinF said:


> Of the last two maps posted, one shows "near average" temps/snowfall for New England and one shows "much above normal snowfall" for New England.
> 
> I don't know how "advanced" a science meteorology is these days, but given that the various long-range forecasts have very little in common with each other, I'm thinking the field of long-range forecasting is in its infancy and these graphs should be viewed primarily for their humor value.



You go with the most favorable map for the stoke factor!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 3, 2014)

KevinF said:


> *I don't know how "advanced" a science meteorology is these days, but given that the various long-range forecasts have very little in common with each other, I'm thinking the field of long-range forecasting is in its infancy and these graphs should be viewed primarily for their humor value.*



The long-range projection stuff often goes horribly wrong, but it's still fun to look at.   At the end of the day, yes, it's a field in it's infancy, but much of science is trial and error.



dlague said:


> *You go with the most favorable map for the stoke factor!*



That's a good strategy too!


----------



## KevinF (Nov 3, 2014)

dlague said:


> You go with the most favorable map for the stoke factor!



Yeah, I have no problem with that!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 6, 2014)

Oh, hai NOAA!   

Nice to see you, where have you been?  Better late than never I suppose.


----------



## Not Sure (Nov 6, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Oh, hai NOAA!
> 
> Nice to see you, where have you been?  Better late than never I suppose.



Nice dip...Weather weenies on WC hinting at a pice of energy riding up the coast. Not on model though


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 6, 2014)

A Meteorological 'bomb' is about to go off in the Bering Strait



> *Typhoon Nuri, along with its reincarnation as a non-tropical system,  appears likely to combine with several other factors to direct multiple  rounds of cold, Arctic air into the Midwest and eastern U.S. during the  remainder of November.*









http://mashable.com/2014/11/05/weat...:eyJzIjoiZiIsImkiOiJfa3kwYW55Y29uNm94dmoyMSJ9


----------



## murff81 (Nov 7, 2014)

I was just reading about this 'polar vortex'

I truly hope it brings the cold air/snowy punch!! (And let's hope it swings a little more east)


----------



## Smellytele (Nov 7, 2014)




----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 7, 2014)

Check this crap out....






Does anyone recall a northern New England winter where there wasn't a December through February thaw?  Longshot, but at the moment there's no sign of abnormally warm temps returning after next week.


----------



## catsup948 (Nov 7, 2014)

Yeah I've been reading about the chance of a coastal storm late next week.  Looks like it will be chilly at least.


----------



## skifree (Nov 7, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Check this crap out....
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Time to buy milk


----------



## Cannonball (Nov 7, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Check this crap out....
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Not sure what you mean by "abnormally warm". If no one can remember a winter without a thaw in Dec-Feb isn't that the norm?  So does "abnormally warm" mean "warmer than the warmness we always get"?


----------



## murff81 (Nov 7, 2014)

Well....I was very happy to see all the snow fall here in central NY today. Nothing stuck but it was nice to see it falling....also glad that the weather guessing game shows us cold for the foreseeable future


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 8, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> Not sure what you mean by "abnormally warm". If no one can remember a winter without a thaw in Dec-Feb isn't that the norm?  So does "abnormally warm" mean "warmer than the warmness we always get"?



Yes and no.    Yes in that we normally get a thaw somewhere in the winter, so yes that's "normal", but in order to get that thaw in the first place you need temps that are a warm deviation from the historical temperatures for January or February.   And what I'm saying is that as of now, it's cold for as far as the eye can see on the long-range models, even in December, starting next week (we all know that's statistically not likely to hold but it would be nice if it does).


----------



## Tin (Nov 8, 2014)

Nuri is bringing some "Day After Tommorow" like stuff.


----------



## fbrissette (Nov 8, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yes and no.    Yes in that we normally get a thaw somewhere in the winter, so yes that's "normal", but in order to get that thaw in the first place you need temps that are a warm deviation from the historical temperatures for January or February.   And what I'm saying is that as of now, it's cold for as far as the eye can see on the long-range models, even in December, starting next week (we all know that's statistically not likely to hold but it would be nice if it does).



Long range temperature forecasts have little to no skill after 10 days in the north east.


----------



## Cannonball (Nov 8, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yes and no.    Yes in that we normally get a thaw somewhere in the winter, so yes that's "normal", but in order to get that thaw in the first place you need temps that are a warm deviation from the historical temperatures for January or February.   And what I'm saying is that as of now, it's cold for as far as the eye can see on the long-range models, even in December, starting next week (we all know that's statistically not likely to hold but it would be nice if it does).



Agreed!!!!   Even if it's abnormally colder than the abnormally warm spell.  That would be nice!! Was great to see a few inches today (and even some earned tracks on Cannon).

I have big project ongoing right now that has me out on the water everyday on a very small boat.  Most of the crew I'm working with are miserable over this forecast, but I'm loving it.  The only thing that bothers me is that I might be stuck on the boat during potential early seasons snows in the next few weeks.


----------



## jack97 (Nov 9, 2014)

interesting article/paper on the correlation of blocking events to the NAO. Most likely another data point for long range forecasters when they sift thru their analogs. iirc, jb was looking at the Atlantic ocean temps when he made his earliest winter forecast several months ago.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/blocking-atlantic.html


----------



## goldsbar (Nov 13, 2014)

Snow covering the ground at altitude in NJ on November 13th.  Must be a good sign for things to come!


----------



## Not Sure (Nov 13, 2014)

Pa. 850' elv.  Me too 2.5" in the back yard and it's cooling down starting to stick on roads will be 4'' by morning. Maybe a quick backyard slide


----------



## ss20 (Nov 13, 2014)

According to the radar, its been snowing 5 miles north, east, and west of me for the past hour.  BRING IT HERE!!  ONLY 5 MILES AWAY!  I'VE WAITED 7 MONTHS TO SEE SNOW!!!

/end rant


----------



## mriceyman (Nov 13, 2014)

Snowing in cnj.. Hope up north gets some love. 


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## 180 (Nov 13, 2014)

too bad its going to warm up again after the 20th.  That's good, makes for good bumps.


----------



## Tin (Nov 14, 2014)

180 said:


> too bad its going to warm up again after the 20th.  That's good, makes for good bumps.



Where are you seeing that? The few places I visit show a system will give most of Vermont/NH/Maine and the Catskills rain ending as 2-4" of snow Monday-Tuesday and behind it some cold air with highs not getting above freezing. Make sure your edges are sharp.


----------



## andrec10 (Nov 14, 2014)

Tin said:


> Where are you seeing that? The few places I visit show a system will give most of Vermont/NH/Maine and the Catskills rain ending as 2-4" of snow Monday-Tuesday and behind it some cold air with highs not getting above freezing. Make sure your edges are sharp.



I said the same thing to myself. Still will be plenty cold at night for snowmaking. As for the bumps....I don't like them as much as I used to.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 14, 2014)

Tin said:


> *Where are you seeing that?*



After a cold week, it looks like much of the country will be warmer than normal by around the 22nd'ish.   Even if that's true though, you'd hope VT/NH/DAX places could still make snow at night.  Poconos & Cats, dunno.  Hopefully the entire forecasts falls apart and it stays cold.


----------



## skiberg (Nov 14, 2014)

Even if it warms up significantly, they are going to put a lot of snow down in the next 8-10 days and nights. Turkey day should be looking pretty good.


----------



## 4aprice (Nov 14, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> After a cold week, *it looks like much of the country will be warmer than normal by around the 22nd'ish*.   Even if that's true though, you'd hope VT/NH/DAX places could still make snow at night.  Poconos & Cats, dunno.  Hopefully the entire forecasts falls apart and it stays cold.



JB says not so fast.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong,NJ


----------



## catsup948 (Nov 15, 2014)

Yeah warmup around Thanksgiving may not be so warm.  Just a possible return to normal at the most.


----------



## jack97 (Nov 16, 2014)

more snow porn. two long range forecast (or outlooks, for the people who get anal about this). all take into account the weak el nino and the siberian correlation. One agrees with jb that the analog is the 76-77 winter, not sure about others, back then chasing snow was the last thing on my mind.

http://www.ketv.com/weather/bills-winter-outlook/29694818

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weat...nual-Long-Range-Winter-Outlook-282407431.html


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 16, 2014)

catsup948 said:


> Yeah warmup around Thanksgiving may not be so warm.  Just a possible return to normal at the most.



Given how terrible the climate models have been so far, I guess that shouldn't be surprising.    So much for the "warmer than normal November".   NOAA's not just going to be wrong, but embarrassingly wrong.

Speaking of JB, here's his sons call for the minor snow event.


----------



## 4aprice (Nov 16, 2014)

^ That's optimistic.  Tim Kelly on NECN was showing some snow but turning liquid all the way to Canada last night.  The cold air will return however, maybe something late week too.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 17, 2014)

4aprice said:


> ^ That's optimistic.  Tim Kelly on NECN was showing some snow but turning liquid all the way to Canada last night.  The cold air will return however, maybe something late week too.



DT actually called for generally more snow than that chart.  Had some 5" to 6" bands up in n.VT


EDIT: Threw in another map.


----------



## Not Sure (Nov 17, 2014)

catsup948 said:


> Yeah warmup around Thanksgiving may not be so warm.  Just a possible return to normal at the most.



After weekend warm up ,another cold shot behind , lets hope this is the January thaw in November


----------



## billski (Nov 17, 2014)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> lets hope this is the January thaw in November



Quote of the Month!


----------



## billski (Nov 17, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Given how terrible the climate models have been so far,



Hey BG, I'm just getting back into this.   The Euro hasn't been performing well recently????


----------



## catsup948 (Nov 17, 2014)

Next 5 days and nights are prime for snowmaking!  After that there may be a rollercoaster before winter finally comes.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 18, 2014)

billski said:


> Hey BG, I'm just getting back into this.   The Euro hasn't been performing well recently????



 I was talking about the climate models from NOAA, which predicted a warmer than normal November just a few weeks ago.   What happened?  Well, it's likely we're going to have the coldest November in the US in years.   It's pretty bad when your climate model predicts "warmer than normal" and just a few weeks later get near historical cold.  At this point, the Chinese hacking might actually improve things.   

The Euro though is showing the end of November might be pretty darn cold.  So other than a few days warm-up it looks like we might quickly return to fantastic snow-making temps.  This is for next Wednesday, look at that arctic shot punching away the warm air.


----------



## Rowsdower (Nov 20, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> I was talking about the climate models from NOAA, which predicted a warmer than normal November just a few weeks ago.   What happened?  Well, it's likely we're going to have the coldest November in the US in years.   It's pretty bad when your climate model predicts "warmer than normal" and just a few weeks later get near historical cold.  At this point, the Chinese hacking might actually improve things.
> 
> The Euro though is showing the end of November might be pretty darn cold.  So other than a few days warm-up it looks like we might quickly return to fantastic snow-making temps.  This is for next Wednesday, look at that arctic shot punching away the warm air.



I don't think those are the systems used for climate modeling. Near-term weather forecasting is not the same as climate modeling. Besides, apart from this last week its not been unseasonably cold, at least not here in New Jersey, and next week looks much much warmer going into December. I also don't know how that stacks up globally. I wouldn't extrapolate a cold snap in the NE to global temp changes until all the numbers are in.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 21, 2014)

Rowsdower said:


> I don't think those are the systems used for climate modeling. Near-term weather forecasting is not the same as climate modeling. Besides, apart from this last week its not been unseasonably cold, at least not here in New Jersey, and next week looks much much warmer going into December. I also don't know how that stacks up globally. I wouldn't extrapolate a cold snap in the NE to global temp changes until all the numbers are in.



You're confusing several different things.  NOAA's climate models did indeed in advance predict a "warmer than normal" November, and this is anything but.  And yes, it has been unseasonably cold here in New Jersey, our temps should be in the high 50s to low 60s early on, then mid 50s, then low 50s at the end of the month.  Our actual data has been way below that, in contrast to NOAA's forecast.  If you search online, you can find plenty of sarcasm regarding how badly NOAA busted.  Lastly, we're not going to be _"much warmer going into December"_, which you're going to soon realize on Wednesday.  Thankfully.


----------



## buellski (Nov 24, 2014)

Love him or hate him, he's bullish on this winter.

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 24, 2014)

buellski said:


> Love him or hate him, he's bullish on this winter.
> 
> http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/



Pretty much everyone is bullish on this winter.  

  I am personally not a big fan of his page, though I do read it.  IMO, I think he's WAY overly optimistic, especially and curiously around holiday periods.  Which leads me to believe that his analysis is not entirely without bias.


----------



## gostan (Nov 26, 2014)

He has to be optimistic in order for his home hill of MRG to open.  I enjoy reading Josh's weekly forecasts, but I would have to go to meteorology school in order to comprehend his recent seasonal forecast.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 3, 2014)

The next potential shot on goal has arrived. 

 All models except for the crappy US government's model have some form of snow in or around the ne for this timeframe, so it may just pan out.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 4, 2014)

Laughably awful US Government model has us melting our faces off.  Thank god it's the GFS!


----------



## Rowsdower (Dec 4, 2014)

It's still going to be a warm December though. Doesn't look like temps return to seasonal averages for the rest of the month.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 4, 2014)

Rowsdower said:


> *It's still going to be a warm December* though. Doesn't look like temps return to seasonal averages for the rest of the month.



If so, it wont be that much of a departure.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 4, 2014)

Here's another great graphic (for next week's shot on goal) to disparage the GFS with.






Euro says rain/snowstorm.
Japanese says rain/snowstorm.
Canucks say rain/snowstorm.
UK (not pictured) says rain/snowstorm.

US gov model says.... BRIGHT SUNNY DAY.  Get out your shades!


----------



## Slimtalk (Dec 5, 2014)

Hope for lots of snow this winter!


----------



## jack97 (Dec 5, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> If so, it wont be that much of a departure.



noaa has been measuring and running hot all year..... doesn't surprise they will be on this pedestal for a while.


----------



## dlague (Dec 5, 2014)

Watching weather on TV this morning and that said that there are three systems lined up in the Pacific - hope that translates into future snow for us.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 5, 2014)

jack97 said:


> *noaa has been measuring and running hot all year..... *doesn't surprise they will be on this pedestal for a while*.*



The funny thing is they said November would be warm, and it was cold.  Originally December would be cold, and now it appears average/mild to slightly warm.  For people that follow this stuff, it's almost statistically improbable (but comical) how often they're wrong on even essentially "coin flip" scenarios.


----------



## Tin (Dec 5, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> it's almost statistically improbable (but comical) how often they're wrong on even essentially "coin flip" scenarios.




Proof of the Gambler's Fallacy.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 6, 2014)

Looks like winter begins right on schedule.

White Christmas with any luck.


----------



## billski (Dec 6, 2014)

My wife contends they get they flatlander and city 3-5 day forecasts right most of the time.  I don't buy it but I don't have the statistical data..   You think?


----------



## St. Bear (Dec 6, 2014)

billski said:


> My wife contends they get they flatlander and city 3-5 day forecasts right most of the time.  I don't buy it but I don't have the statistical data..   You think?



I think it would depend on which city. 
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-city-has-the-most-unpredictable-weather/


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 10, 2014)

Probably a good time to point out that the long-range models that claimed we'd soon be re-opening our swimming pools and playing lawn darts are going to be wrong.

_*AGAIN.*_

Thankfully.


----------



## fbrissette (Dec 10, 2014)

billski said:


> My wife contends they get they flatlander and city 3-5 day forecasts right most of the time.  I don't buy it but I don't have the statistical data..   You think?



I don't have any stat to show you, but I work with weather forecasters (the guys who run the forecating models) in a few research projects and what they tell me is that on average their success rate is 50% at 5 days (better for temperature, worse for precip). In other words, they are not really better at 5 days than guessing.  25 years ago, the 50% success rate was at 2 days.  So they are getting better.  That's on average.  Some weather systems are easier to predict than others.


----------



## skiNEwhere (Dec 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Probably a good time to point out that the long-range models that claimed we'd soon be re-opening our swimming pools and playing lawn darts are going to be wrong.
> 
> _*AGAIN.*_
> 
> Thankfully.



Lawn darts? Those have been banned for like 25 years. Way too much responsibility for Americans to handle


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 10, 2014)

skiNEwhere said:


> *Lawn darts? Those have been banned for like 25 years.* Way too much responsibility for Americans to handle



I have about 4 or 5 sets of them.  I had this crazy idea to buy them in the mid-90s when you could still find them at yard sales etc... figuring they'd increase in value.  They have!  You can get about $100 a set for them now.  I'm keeping them though, too much fun to sell, and I'll have replacements if fins break etc....


----------



## catsup948 (Dec 10, 2014)

Late next week there seems to be something popping up.  Deepening trough and several lows moving up the coast.  Seems a more active pattern with better air right before Christmas.  Ski resorts should be primed for the holiday week!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 14, 2014)

catsup948 said:


> Late next week there seems to be something popping up.  Deepening trough and several lows moving up the coast.  Seems a more active pattern with better air right before Christmas.  Ski resorts should be primed for the holiday week!



Storm's still there on the European, but everything isnt quite right on the others.  The good news is, this far out the EURO tends to be the most accurate.

Sure is pretty to look at though.....


----------



## mriceyman (Dec 14, 2014)

That would be nice


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----------



## Abubob (Dec 15, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


>




This just illustrates where the above and below freezing temps might be. But the location of the low is about perfect for snow in northern NE - as long as it stays just off the coast and doesn't track up the CT valley.


----------



## dlague (Dec 15, 2014)

This Wednesday looks a little crappy!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 15, 2014)

Abubob said:


> *This just illustrates where the above and below freezing temps might be. But the location of the low is about perfect for snow in northern NE *- as long as it stays just off the coast and doesn't track up the CT valley.



Yes, those are, ummmm..... kindof the two very most important details.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 15, 2014)

Bastardi just posted the experimental version of the GFS and claims it matches his thoughts on this one.  If so it displays a pretty good hit for north Jersey through the Cats.


----------



## St. Bear (Dec 15, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Bastardi just posted the experimental version of the GFS and claims it matches his thoughts on this one.  If so it displays a pretty good hit for north Jersey through the Cats.



Last storm moved North and West from the models.  If that holds for this one, it might get ugly.


----------



## catsup948 (Dec 15, 2014)

Euro moved this storm southeast.  We should check back on this one Thursday before we get to excited about it.


----------



## mriceyman (Dec 15, 2014)

Way too far out to know where it will hit


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----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 15, 2014)

St. Bear said:


> Last storm moved North and West from the models.  *If that holds for this one, it might get ugly*.



It's still SO early, 5.5 days is an eternity and anything can happen, but at least for now it's shifted south.  I havent seen the last EURO, but apparently that shifted a bit south too.


----------



## Abubob (Dec 15, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yes, those are, ummmm..... kindof the two very most important details.



Oh ... uh .. sorry ... I didn't realize I was being Obvious Man!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 15, 2014)

Wow, no pictures out yet, but hearing the EURO that's currently running in going south again. 

 Decent snowfall, but mid NJ would be about as far north as it gets........so......... lets hope it's wrong.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 15, 2014)

On the above, both Bastardi and DT think the current Euro run is flawed, which is good news for the Poconos, Catskills, and Berks.

Definitely starting to look like this is going to be a south of Vermont and New Hampshire storm though, unless the models flip and bring it back north.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 15, 2014)

JC just put out something trying to show the point of how fruitless it is to try to predict snowfall SIX days out by comparing what the current snowfall output would be on the Euro, GFS, and the Parallel GFS and then by blending them (the GFS says no storm at all).  Posting it because I think it's pretty cool.














And it's so true, the main thing to be concerned with when you wake up each day is that the storm is still there from the overnight runs.


----------



## mtsixspeed (Dec 15, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> On the above, both Bastardi and DT think the current Euro run is flawed, which is good news for the Poconos, Catskills, and Berks.
> 
> Definitely starting to look like this is going to be a south of Vermont and New Hampshire storm though, unless the models flip and bring it back north.



Bring on the snow and the cold! As long as it stays cold so they don't lose whatever base is already up there, I'm happy. My first trip is scheduled for New Years in NH.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 16, 2014)

mtsixspeed said:


> *Bring on the snow and the cold! As long as it stays cold so they don't lose whatever base is already up there, I'm happy.* My first trip is scheduled for New Years in NH.



The cold is here to stay.  The long-range models calling for a very warm back-end of December have failed (again).

The storm for this weekend though?    Falling apart.  Needs to correct/come back within the next few model runs or it's done for.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 16, 2014)

Another 3" to 5" of backside snow possible tonight in VT & NH?    

Ugh...momma don't let your babies grow up to work in finance.  No n.VT trips and playing in the woods for me until year-end close. 

Usually I dont care, but if the upcoming pattern holds, with what's already down.... this December is probably going to be one of the best in several decades.


----------



## 4aprice (Dec 16, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Another 3" to 5" of backside snow possible tonight in VT & NH?
> 
> Ugh...momma don't let your babies grow up to work in finance.  No n.VT trips and playing in the woods for me until year-end close.
> 
> Usually I dont care, but if the upcoming pattern holds, with what's already down.... this December is probably going to be one of the best in several decades.



While I feel for you, unless we have an epic melt down, the woods should be in play when your busy season is done.  The snow from that last storm was perfect for the base in the woods.  Would love to see a storm like that every year.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 16, 2014)

4aprice said:


> While I feel for you, unless we have an epic melt down, the woods should be in play when your busy season is done. * The snow from that last storm was perfect for the base in the woods.  Would love to see a storm like that every year.
> *



No doubt.  A deep, heavy, wet, concrete snow to lay a foundation.  Nothing can beat it for getting the woods open.  Sadly, the Catskills on 01/10 + 01/11 will probably be my first days this season, but after that it's every weekend till' mid-April.


----------



## Not Sure (Dec 16, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Another 3" to 5" of backside snow possible tonight in VT & NH?
> 
> Ugh...momma don't let your babies grow up to work in finance.  No n.VT trips and playing in the woods for me until year-end close.
> 
> Usually I dont care, but if the upcoming pattern holds, with what's already down.... this December is probably going to be one of the best in several decades.



Opened my electric bill for December, this years average temp was 38f last year 39f?


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## catsup948 (Dec 17, 2014)

Christmas cutter?  Seems likely, but this finally ushers in a pattern change that should benefit the whole northeast.


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## catsup948 (Dec 17, 2014)

Maybe not likely but possible.  Something like last week could be too.  That doesn't benefit me but mountains yes!


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 17, 2014)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Opened my electric bill for December, this years average temp was 38f last year 39f?



For our area?  Sounds about right, maybe a few degrees bit warmer than I would have guessed.


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## MadMadWorld (Dec 17, 2014)

I might be hitting up my boys at Sundown!


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## billski (Dec 17, 2014)

Everything you want to know about the maps for the next 7 days


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## dlague (Dec 18, 2014)

Well this might put a damper on things on Christmas Eve and the weekend following!  I want these warm pushes to stop!



Now


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## billski (Dec 18, 2014)

I saw some freezing drizzle actuals for Sugarloaf last night.


----------



## 4aprice (Dec 18, 2014)

dlague said:


> Well this might put a damper on things on Christmas Eve and the weekend following!  I want these warm pushes to stop!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Some are saying this is what we really do want.  Storm like this has potential to change pattern (if you can believe it) to a *better *pattern for the northeast.  Just hope its a cold rain that adds moisture to the snowpack more then melts it.  Good cold and snowmaking weather await on the other side.  Natural snow is a more hit and miss thing but I think it comes.  Surfaces may get hard for the holidays.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Smellytele (Dec 18, 2014)

Not skiing the weekend after Christmas thank god


----------



## Savemeasammy (Dec 18, 2014)

dlague said:


> Well this might put a damper on things on Christmas Eve and the weekend following!  I want these warm pushes to stop!
> 
> View attachment 14707
> 
> ...



These maps suck.  Please remove them!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## catsup948 (Dec 18, 2014)

Hope this changes.  It's still very far out.  Secondary low is interesting.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 18, 2014)

catsup948 said:


> Hope this changes.  It's still very far out.  Secondary low is interesting.



So do we all on here !


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## catsup948 (Dec 18, 2014)

So many moving parts.  Wait until Sunday on this one.


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## catsup948 (Dec 18, 2014)

http://westernmewx.com. This is a good spin.


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## billski (Dec 19, 2014)

catsup948 said:


> http://westernmewx.com. This is a good spin.



I keep looking until I find a forecast I like


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## yeggous (Dec 19, 2014)

The forecast for Christmas Eve is not going to change. The ensemble spread has been amazingly low for days. It's rare to get such a confident long-range forecast.


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## billski (Dec 19, 2014)

I guess things got a little scratchy overnight.  Jay is skiing like a dream I'm told.   I'm probably going skiing on Monday, before the holiday blackouts and the rain show comes.


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## billski (Dec 19, 2014)

*Wx Discussion from 12/13*

This discussion is pretty good.  It's 6 days old, but it provides a good overview of what is going on.   He does a good job of tying all the models together and explaining their faults and the risks entailed.   I believe a new one will come out tomorrow/Saturday late


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## billski (Dec 19, 2014)

This is a little geeky, but it's good stuff.  Posted yesterday @ FB by the same guy as above
https://www.facebook.com/notes/790320607681866/


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## watkin (Dec 19, 2014)

Fascinating, takeaway for me is:   Huge Lake effect snows.


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## dlague (Dec 19, 2014)

Savemeasammy said:


> These maps suck.  Please remove them!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Yes they do such but I am interested in the backside of this storm!


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## Savemeasammy (Dec 19, 2014)

billski said:


> I guess things got a little scratchy overnight.  Jay is skiing like a dream I'm told.   I'm probably going skiing on Monday, before the holiday blackouts and the rain show comes.



I believe many of the blackouts START on Monday. 


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## fbrissette (Dec 19, 2014)

yeggous said:


> The forecast for Christmas Eve is not going to change. The ensemble spread has been amazingly low for days. It's rare to get such a confident long-range forecast.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



It's sad but you're right.


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## mriceyman (Dec 19, 2014)

It only changes when a snow storm is in 5-7 day fantasy land. 


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----------



## dlague (Dec 19, 2014)

Savemeasammy said:


> I believe many of the blackouts START on Monday.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk





dlague said:


> Yes they do such but I am interested in the backside of this storm!





mriceyman said:


> It only changes when a snow storm is in 5-7 day fantasy land.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



How true is that!


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## catsup948 (Dec 20, 2014)

Christmas Eve through the end of the week will be warm.  Conditions and bases could be awfully spring like for a few days.  Period starting end of next week could bring snow storm chances.  28th 29th have been on the models for a little while now.  Think snow! Tomorrow is officially winter!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 21, 2014)




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## BenedictGomez (Jan 13, 2015)

Some talk of a potential pattern switch and an energetic pattern beginning in the 7 - 10 day period.  God willing.


----------



## Puck it (Jan 13, 2015)

Boy do I need it too.


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## catsup948 (Jan 13, 2015)

I'll believe it when I see it.  Maybe this pattern can produce a little without -nao like last winter.  Nothing huge but some 6 inch plus events region wide.


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## 4aprice (Jan 14, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> I'll believe it when I see it.  Maybe this pattern can produce a little without -nao like last winter.  Nothing huge but some 6 inch plus events region wide.



I still think this winter will come through.   A cold November (good start) followed by warm December (which still produced a significant storm) followed by a cold dry period in January, now an apparent small January thaw (I sometimes marvel at how people react to something that happens every year), to see a good second half (a rockin February and March) wouldn't surprise me at all.  It's a play I've seen acted out many times during my 45 years skiing.  Still got 3+ months to go in my season.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Rowsdower (Jan 14, 2015)

Possible system moving through next week (Tues/Wed).


----------



## Tin (Jan 14, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> Possible system moving through next week (Tues/Wed).



Starts at rain/sleet and ends as. Euro and GFS have it Monday-Tues, looks like VT could miss it all. Strange track. The CMC as it too far off shore to do much. Hopefully it takes a track a littler further out but not too far.


----------



## hammer (Jan 14, 2015)

I'm guessing the mets could put enough spin to disagree but so far the season isn't exactly living up to forecasts...:roll:


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## mriceyman (Jan 14, 2015)

It could honestly be alot worse weather wise. I think this is a grade c winter bit with any decent feb it could move up quick. 


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----------



## Rowsdower (Jan 14, 2015)

Temps have been decent for snowmaking but there's just been hardly any natural snowfall. When a system moves in the temps jump twenty degrees and its coming as a mix or rain.


----------



## dlague (Jan 14, 2015)

4aprice said:


> I still think this winter will come through.   A cold November (good start) followed by warm December (which still produced a significant storm) followed by a cold dry period in January, now an apparent small January thaw (I sometimes marvel at how people react to something that happens every year), to see a good second half (a rockin February and March) wouldn't surprise me at all.  It's a play I've seen acted out many times during my 45 years skiing.  Still got 3+ months to go in my season.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Regarding the thaws - it is true people do react but I think the general fear is something like last year might happen.  I just think people are looking for the goods in the woods and it is limited right now.  With warm temps comes refreeze and hopefully no r--n.  The only good thing about refreeze - makes for good spring conditions.


----------



## St. Bear (Jan 14, 2015)

mriceyman said:


> It could honestly be alot worse weather wise. I think this is a grade c winter bit with any decent feb it could move up quick.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Agreed.  This season has been solidly mediocre, however it's trending downward quickly.


----------



## The Sneak (Jan 14, 2015)

this season has sucked for a month. 
Every day outside of my pow day @ Pico has been endless gray skies and bulletproof groomers. 
BOOO!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 14, 2015)

hammer said:


> I'm guessing the mets could put enough spin to disagree but *so far the season isn't exactly living up to forecasts..*.:roll:



It's gone almost as poorly as humanly possible from a forecast standpoint.

For starters the season forecast was this was supposed to be a cold winter with above average snow.  It's been decidedly average in temperature and the snow has been almost nonexistant.  

Then there's the comically poor performance of the outmonth climate models, which have been worse than a monkey throwing darts.  They called for a warm November, we got near record cold.  They called for a cold December, we got a mild to (I think) slightly warm December.  They called for a mid-end January BLOWTORCH, we now know that not only will that not happen, but it should be cold enough for snow.

So forgive me if I dont give a ratz azz about what the models are currently saying for February.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 14, 2015)

All that said, the GFS just received a major multi-million dollar upgrade, which now makes it even more powerful than the Euro and the Canuck (which was upgraded last year), and the 12z just out was its' first ever run.

Guess what?

It's predicting a decent storm next weekend.  Cant make this stuff up folks.  Here's the low on Friday night, kicks snow into all of ski country.  If this upgrade still has the southeast bias of the old GFS, it would be even better.  Nine days out though, so ingest your grains of salt with this one.


----------



## St. Bear (Jan 14, 2015)

Sounds about right. I'm flying out to SLC that day.


----------



## dlague (Jan 14, 2015)

The Sneak said:


> this season has sucked for a month.
> Every day outside of my pow day @ Pico has been endless gray skies and bulletproof groomers.
> BOOO!



Well the alternative might suck more - not skiing at all!  We have not missed a beat and while we have had some days with tough conditions, I had fun with whatever was there.  Two of the days had r--n in the early morning but we followed the forecast and skied later in the morning into the afternoon and had a great time.

It must suck to require perfect conditions, or bumps, or trees, or powder, or not skiing early or late season, or not cold, or too warm.  Hell, I will take any day out there because I take what the mountain gives me!  I am happy with that!


----------



## Puck it (Jan 14, 2015)




----------



## C-Rex (Jan 14, 2015)

St. Bear said:


> Sounds about right. I'm flying out to SLC that day.



I'd be happy to take your ticket if you'd rather stick around here...


----------



## St. Bear (Jan 14, 2015)

C-Rex said:


> I'd be happy to take your ticket if you'd rather stick around here...


----------



## lstone84 (Jan 14, 2015)

Well, geez, maybe something for MLK a day too


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----------



## catsup948 (Jan 14, 2015)

Sunday/Monday is something to look at.  New GFS has a redeveloper.


----------



## catsup948 (Jan 14, 2015)

Check out @ryanhanrahan's Tweet: https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/555465453142020096?s=09


----------



## billski (Jan 14, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Sunday/Monday is something to look at.  New GFS has a redeveloper.


  If it pans out, (flip coin)., I may never go back home!


----------



## 4aprice (Jan 14, 2015)

dlague said:


> Regarding the thaws - it is true people do react *but I think the general fear is something like last year might happen*.  I just think *people are looking for the goods in the woods* and it is limited right now.  With warm temps comes refreeze and hopefully no r--n.  The only good thing about refreeze - makes for good spring conditions.



Refresh my memory.  I thought last year after a very significant January thaw, things got pretty good by mid February and stayed that way to mid April.  I don't remember December last year being a time to go into the trees.  This year we had the storm in December and really a 2 week window where we've already skied the trees.  From what I understand a lot of that snow is still in there in some frozen form. The trees will always go in and out of play (at least here in the east).  My point being you don't get wall to wall winter in the east and patience is required.   The six weeks between the end of January to the middle of March could easily turn this into an over achieving ski season.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## Tin (Jan 15, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Sunday/Monday is something to look at.  New GFS has a redeveloper.



Looking horrific now on both.


----------



## skifree (Jan 15, 2015)

maps please


----------



## billski (Jan 15, 2015)

skifree said:


> maps please


  Look at the thread for the weekend.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 15, 2015)

OH NO!!!  Fear the BLOWTORCH for Late January and early February!!!!


----------



## Nick (Jan 15, 2015)

Don't even say that (as summit time)


----------



## billski (Jan 15, 2015)

That's an anomaly map.  It shows deviation from average.  For our area it looks like 5-6 degrees C below average.


----------



## Tin (Jan 15, 2015)

Running inland...we're screwed.


----------



## billski (Jan 15, 2015)

Tin said:


> Running inland...we're screwed.


  Too far away for trash talk!  These are OUR months!  :smash:


----------



## Puck it (Jan 15, 2015)

http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/joestradamus.html

Stomrmier pattern coming


----------



## billski (Jan 15, 2015)

Puck it said:


> http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/joestradamus.html
> 
> Stomrmier pattern coming



Attaboy!   Just keep looking at forecasts until you see one you like


----------



## Abubob (Jan 15, 2015)

billski said:


> Attaboy!   Just keep looking at forecasts until you see one you like


That's usually my approach.


----------



## catsup948 (Jan 15, 2015)

I love reading about the weather.  This upcoming pattern could produce or we could just be cold and dry.  This being said northern New england will  continue to cash in with these warm systems.  Western Maine could get crushed Sunday night.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 15, 2015)

This ingredient has been missing for quite some time.  Hugely helpful if it pans out.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Jan 15, 2015)

Have you guys tried to read through this thread? It's a blowtorch...huge storm.....cold and dry....does anyone really have a clue? Or do you just have meteorological turrets?


----------



## JDMRoma (Jan 15, 2015)

TK says no blowtorch and snow for the northern NH ski areas in the Ski the East weather report just out !
I'm going with that !


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----------



## mriceyman (Jan 15, 2015)

MadMadWorld said:


> Have you guys tried to read through this thread? It's a blowtorch...huge storm.....cold and dry....does anyone really have a clue? Or do you just have meteorological turrets?



If youve followed any mets the last 2 months they dont have a clue either. Seriously its been awful. Models dont have a clue of anything after day 6. 


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----------



## skiNEwhere (Jan 15, 2015)

MadMadWorld said:


> Have you guys tried to read through this thread? It's a blowtorch...huge storm.....cold and dry....does anyone really have a clue? Or do you just have meteorological turrets?



Bob Saget!


----------



## Not Sure (Jan 15, 2015)

mriceyman said:


> If youve followed any mets the last 2 months they dont have a clue either. Seriously its been awful. Models dont have a clue of anything after day 6.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## catsup948 (Jan 15, 2015)

Mets are clueless.  Models are clueless in the mid to long range.  It's been a struggle all season. Maybe finally this upcoming periods produces for all.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 16, 2015)

MadMadWorld said:


> Have you guys tried to read through this thread? *It's a blowtorch.*..huge storm.....cold and dry....does anyone really have a clue? Or do you just have meteorological turrets?



My "blowtorch" post was completely sarcastic and making fun of NOAA's model, which called for scorching mid to end of January temperatures in the east literally just a week or so ago.  In reality, we're now facing brutal cold and likely below normal temps into February.   Their computer models are laughable, and literally every month since November has been wrong.  If you flipped a coin on each month, you'd statistically have had better luck on the last 3 month's guesses than NOAA.


----------



## Puck it (Jan 16, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> My "blowtorch" post was completely sarcastic and making fun of NOAA's model, which called for scorching mid to end of January temperatures in the east literally just a week or so ago. In reality, we're now facing brutal cold and likely below normal temps into February. Their computer models are laughable, and literally every month since November has been wrong. If you flipped a coin on each month, you'd statistically have had better luck on the last 3 month's guesses than NOAA.



Their wind predictions have been way off too.  They have had Cannon with windy or blustery conditons for the last few weeks.


----------



## Not Sure (Jan 16, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> My "blowtorch" post was completely sarcastic and making fun of NOAA's model, which called for scorching mid to end of January temperatures in the east literally just a week or so ago.  In reality, we're now facing brutal cold and likely below normal temps into February.   Their computer models are laughable, and literally every month since November has been wrong.  If you flipped a coin on each month, you'd statistically have had better luck on the last 3 month's guesses than NOAA.



There seems to be a pervasive warm bias everywhere , programmed into models?
This morning WC had Miami knee deep in water do to AGW


----------



## billski (Jan 16, 2015)

*Icon request*



BenedictGomez said:


> My "blowtorch" post was completely sarcastic


   Hey admins, can we please have a SARCASM EMOTICON?   Or maybe just agree to pick one and use it for sarcasm?  Some of us use sarcasm as humor!


----------



## hammer (Jan 16, 2015)

billski said:


> Hey admins, can we please have a SARCASM EMOTICON?   Or maybe just agree to pick one and use it for sarcasm?  Some of us use sarcasm as humor!


This is the one I use...;-)


----------



## billski (Jan 16, 2015)

MadMadWorld said:


> ..does anyone really have a clue? Or do you just have meteorological turrets?


  coin flip.  I'll be pre positioned in Maine.  If travel gets really bad, I may have to stick around


----------



## buellski (Jan 16, 2015)

MadMadWorld said:


> meteorological turrets


----------



## ScottySkis (Jan 16, 2015)

I don't with long range forecast s


----------



## from_the_NEK (Jan 16, 2015)

ScottySkis said:


> I don't with long range forecast s



meteorological turrets to meteorological Scottyspeak :lol:


----------



## Cannonball (Jan 16, 2015)

billski said:


> Hey admins, can we please have a SARCASM EMOTICON?   Or maybe just agree to pick one and use it for sarcasm?  Some of us use sarcasm as humor!



Yeah, because written sarcasm can't exist without emoticons.


(see it can be done!)


Oh sorry.... :smile:


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2015)

Multiple shots on goal might be coming in the next 10 or so days.

*Could be a pretty big snowstorm Saturday night if the Euro is correct.*

I'd expect folks to start talking about this one soon given this is the ens run.  Plus there's some support now.  Fingers crossed.


----------



## JDMRoma (Jan 20, 2015)

I don't want to jinx it but Sunday is my birthday and it's all I'm asking for. One big dump....!


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## mriceyman (Jan 20, 2015)

Lets not start another thread for it til at least friday lol


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## dlague (Jan 20, 2015)

JDMRoma said:


> I don't want to jinx it but Sunday is my birthday and it's all I'm asking for. One big dump....!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



BTW - Just need to eat foods that will block you up hold it in for a couple of days and there you one big dump!

In any case, if you are at Cannon - I will have to buy you a beer!  :beer:


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2015)

*The 12z GFS just came out and CONFIRMED with the EURO!!!!!!!*


----------



## Puck it (Jan 20, 2015)

dlague said:


> BTW - Just need to eat foods that will block you up hold it in for a couple of days and there you one big dump!
> 
> In any case, if you are at Cannon - I will have to buy you a beer! :beer:



I'll drive.


----------



## Puck it (Jan 20, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> *The 12z GFS just came out and CONFIRMED with the EURO!!!!!!!*


This is just doomed it.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2015)

Puck it said:


> *This is just doomed it.*



Well, there's still plenty of opportunity to be negative if you want to be a Debbie Downer.

1) The energy is not on shore yet so the best sampling hasn't occurred.
2) There a clipper on Wednesday, and models often get confused and don't handle 1,2, punches well
3) The 00z Canuck (12z not out yet) only has this a winner for NJ, RI, east MA as it's further east
4) Even on the GFS & ECMWF it might not get west enough for a lot of ski country if the trend "stops"


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2015)

Here's the 00z Canadian.  You can see it doesn't work out well; so it will be interesting to see what the 12z says.


----------



## billski (Jan 20, 2015)

If you want to get really twisted about this one, look at what WxRisk.com is saying!

***  ALERT  ** 12Z GFS NOW HAS   JAN  23-24  S.E.C.S.   SIGNIFICANT  EAST COAST SNOWSTORM ....

 The  reason why this MAJOR DEVELOPMENT significant is because this was  the ONE weather model which insisted that the Low over the Southeast  U.S. Coast was NOT  going to come up the coast but instead   stay out to  sea.   And because it would stay   away from the coast ...skies over  the northeast U.S.  would   stay  SUNNY and temperature that be in the  40S.   oppps! 

 Clearly as you can see that is not going to  happen...  as this model now looks like the European model and has a  major snowstorm from Washington, DC up towards Boston.    Sunny and 45?    dont think so.


----------



## catsup948 (Jan 20, 2015)

This is one to watch.  Talk is that it will develop to late and the trough doesn't dig enough.  Cape Cod special.  My hope is for this seasonal trend of storms to cut west brings this sucker over the canal.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> This is one to watch.  Talk is that* it will develop to late and the trough doesn't dig enough.  Cape Cod special. * My hope is for this seasonal trend of storms to cut west brings this sucker over the canal.



At the moment.   But the trend has been NW.  If that happens it would be rain in NJ and the cities, but snow for ski country.  Trend is the friend though, I'll gladly sacrifice my snow in NJ if it lands in the Cats instead.

EDIT:  Also, because of that system coming through on Wednesday, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the models are screwing this up, we've seen that happen time-and-again the last few years where it just doesn't handle 2 storms in close proximity well.


----------



## catsup948 (Jan 20, 2015)

Monday/Tuesday has a big signal.  Much better storm than this weekend.  We have to wait on that one.


----------



## mriceyman (Jan 20, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Monday/Tuesday has a big signal.  Much better storm than this weekend.  We have to wait on that one.



Curious to see both evolve after this clipper comes through tomorrow. Hopefully it over performs in nj tmrw nite and it leads to a great weekend


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----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Monday/*Tuesday has a big signal.  Much better storm than this weekend.  We have to wait on that one*.



That popped up out of nowhere.  Hopefully it's legit and not just the ECMWF getting confused by all these simultaneous energy readings.  Watch, practically nobody will talk about that until the Saturday storm is past - seems like most mets can only focus on one storm at a time, lol.


----------



## catsup948 (Jan 20, 2015)

Both seem to be out to sea.  I'm watching closely hoping for that nw trend which would pay off big in interior southern New england.


----------



## billski (Jan 20, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> - seems like most mets can only focus on one storm at a time, lol.


  that's exactly what nws said this afternoon in their technical discussion.  After all, they have to put out a near-term forecast.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> *Both seem to be out to sea.*  I'm watching closely hoping for that nw trend which would pay off big in interior southern New england.



Que?   The first 00z run is out (NAM) and on it Saturday looks pretty much just like the earlier GFS and Euro.  Poconos, Cats, and Berks would all get snow.  With a slight northern shift, places like Gore and s.VT would get some snow too.


----------



## catsup948 (Jan 20, 2015)

I was looking at the 12z Euro and Canadian both out to sea a bit.  Candian shows an impressive bowling ball of energy, fast moving.  I'll await 00z model runs when I get up.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> I was looking at the 12z Euro and Canadian both out to sea a bit.  Candian shows an impressive bowling ball of energy, fast moving.  I'll await 00z model runs when I get up.



Every major model has this snowstorm.   

In true hype, panic-inducing, money-marketing fashion, here I'll only post the jackpot zone from the model that's by far the most amped for this storm.   That's how it's done on social media, right?


----------



## billski (Jan 21, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Every major model has this snowstorm.
> 
> In true hype, panic-inducing, money-marketing fashion, here I'll only post the jackpot zone from the model that's by far the most amped for this storm.   That's how it's done on social media, right?



Word has it that the weather forecasts are funded by Star Market, Stop and Shop, Market Basket, Garelick Farms, Wonder Bread, Budweiser, Ben&Jerrys, Mobil, Sunoco and Exxon.


----------



## catsup948 (Jan 21, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Every major model has this snowstorm.
> 
> In true hype, panic-inducing, money-marketing fashion, here I'll only post the jackpot zone from the model that's by far the most amped for this storm.   That's how it's done on social media, right?



And I'm done.  I meant out to sea for a great track here in the Berkshires.  It's a perfect benchmark track for major northeast cities.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2015)

I was planning on a n.VT trip next weekend, but if the GFS is correct I'm pulling the plug on it.   If the Canuck is correct Friday will be fine, but Saturday might not be too pleasant.   

I'll be anxiously watching this over the next few days.  Le sigh.....


----------



## dlague (Jan 23, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> I was planning on a n.VT trip next weekend, but if the GFS is correct I'm pulling the plug on it.   If the Canuck is correct Friday will be fine, but Saturday might not be too pleasant.
> 
> I'll be anxiously watching this over the next few days.  Le sigh.....



OK suspense is killing me!  What are the early signs?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2015)

dlague said:


> OK suspense is killing me!  What are the early signs?



Partly cloudy, chance of freezing to death.

And it actually gets worse from there.


----------



## dlague (Jan 23, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Partly cloudy, chance of freezing to death.
> 
> And it actually gets worse from there.



I have been out in those conditions already this year!  Will have to pay attention.


----------



## billski (Jan 23, 2015)

dlague said:


> OK suspense is killing me!  What are the early signs?


Menstrual cramping, hot flashes, vomiting.


----------



## billski (Jan 23, 2015)

dlague said:


> I have been out in those conditions already this year!  Will have to pay attention.


  I was out in minus fifteen on Saturday.  It's no problem at all without crowds or wind and with a sunny day.   I had a blast!


----------



## billski (Jan 23, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> I was planning on a n.VT trip next weekend, but if the GFS is correct I'm pulling the plug on it.   If the Canuck is correct Friday will be fine, but Saturday might not be too pleasant.
> 
> I'll be anxiously watching this over the next few days.  Le sigh.....


  Are you nuts?  Taking a 7 day model seriously?


----------



## Cannonball (Jan 23, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> I was planning on a n.VT trip next weekend, but if the GFS is correct I'm pulling the plug on it.   If the Canuck is correct Friday will be fine, but Saturday might not be too pleasant.
> 
> I'll be anxiously watching this over the next few days.  Le sigh.....



Next weekend...as in 7-9 days from now?  Plenty of time for that forecast to change 12 times.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2015)

billski said:


> *Are you nuts?  Taking a 7 day model seriously?*





Cannonball said:


> Next weekend...as in *7*-9* days from now?*



Ambient temperature is handled way better than precipitation, though, so I do expect it to be cold, and cold is fine.    Negative temperatures without even factoring in potential wind (I didnt run the wind panels), however, could get ugly.

I skied Whiteface on Saturday in -3 to...... I think it hit 6 degrees that day, but it was a drier-than-death cold, sunny, and without a hint of a breeze.


----------



## bdfreetuna (Jan 23, 2015)

Wind shouldn't be a factor if you're skiing fast enough anyway


----------



## JDMRoma (Jan 23, 2015)

As long as I don't hear R@!n I'm skiing !
Don't care how cold it gets ....F it !
What's the worst thing that could happen ? Frostbite of the nose ⛄️


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----------



## dlague (Jan 23, 2015)

billski said:


> I was out in minus fifteen on Saturday.  It's no problem at all without crowds or wind and with a sunny day.   I had a blast!



Same for us, -16 at the summit at Cannon and had a blast too!  Got there at 9 and stopped at 3:30 (lunch in between)


----------



## Not Sure (Jan 23, 2015)

dlague said:


> Same for us, -16 at the summit at Cannon and had a blast too!  Got there at 9 and stopped at 3:30 (lunch in between)



How do you keep your boots warm in that kind of weather ?


----------



## fbrissette (Jan 23, 2015)

bdfreetuna said:


> Wind shouldn't be a factor if you're skiing fast enough anyway




Definitely.  The problem is to find a chairlift running fast enough.  Still looking for the 'tuna speed' chairlift.


----------



## dlague (Jan 23, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> How do you keep your boots warm in that kind of weather ?



I do not cram my toes into my boots so I can wiggle the toes but my feet do not get cold easy and I do not Jae boot heaters or use toe warmers.  Same goes for my wife.  I also do not use hand warmers.


----------



## billski (Jan 24, 2015)

dlague said:


> I do not cram my toes into my boots so I can wiggle the toes but my feet do not get cold easy and I do not Jae boot heaters or use toe warmers.  Same goes for my wife.  I also do not use hand warmers.


  This one is so subjective.  I know some hard chargers that get painfully cold toes.  He broke down and got boot warmers and said he should have got them 20 years ago.   I also know a few people that use the boot covers and are really happy with them.   I go with the throw away toe warmers, two pair a day when it's below 0F because they are so cheap (where I get them).  So much of it depends on your own body.


----------



## billski (Jan 24, 2015)

Western Mass is already ringing up the numbers.


----------



## catsup948 (Jan 24, 2015)

There is just a line of storms coming in.  Friday, next Monday.  These are both strong signals.  Plenty of cold too.


----------



## catsup948 (Jan 27, 2015)

Euro!  Amped up system Monday!  Oh god


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 27, 2015)

This is what I was worried about for this weekend:

*Saturday* - Mostly sunny and cold, with a *high near 3*. Windy, with a northwest *wind 33 to 36 mph*.

But I thought Friday would be fine, but now.... that's looking at 30mph winds too.  Will have to decide whether to pull the plug tomorrow or not.  Yuck.


----------



## billski (Jan 27, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> This is what I was worried about for this weekend:
> 
> *Saturday* - Mostly sunny and cold, with a *high near 3*. Windy, with a northwest *wind 33 to 36 mph*.
> 
> But I thought Friday would be fine, but now.... that's looking at 30mph winds too.  Will have to decide whether to pull the plug tomorrow or not.  Yuck.



You never know if you don't go.  The season is too short.  Whatchagonnado?  Stay home and watch ski racing?   
I was out in -15 last weekend.  The forecast was for winds that never materialized: these are valley forecasts..   What mountain are you considering.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 27, 2015)

billski said:


> You never know if you don't go.  The season is too short.  Whatchagonnado?  Stay home and watch ski racing?
> I was out in -15 last weekend.  The forecast was for winds that never materialized: these are valley forecasts..   What mountain are you considering.



I'd planned on hitting Smuggs this weekend, but the Catskills might be the wiser choice as twelve hours would be a lot of driving for 1 day of skiing.  On the positive slide, those 35mph winds I quoted are only for 3000ft+ so I'll just keep a close eye and check in it tomorrow afternoon.


----------



## St. Bear (Jan 27, 2015)

The ultimate 1st World Problem. I'm not sure I want snow early next week, because it'll be hard to take time off so close to my trip.


----------



## catsup948 (Jan 27, 2015)

Nickels, dimes, we just keep plugging away out here.  Missed out on this one but early next week is looking decent, maybe it saves areas that were screwed today.


----------



## ss20 (Jan 27, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Euro!  Amped up system Monday!  Oh god



The Euro?  The same Euro that said I'd have 3 feet instead of 3 inches?


----------



## catsup948 (Jan 27, 2015)

ss20 said:


> The Euro?  The same Euro that said I'd have 3 feet instead of 3 inches?



Yes, hence the oh god. Euro actually sniffed out the big coastal before the other models did.  It just failed horribly in the short range.


----------



## billski (Jan 27, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> There is just a line of storms coming in.  Friday, next Monday.  These are both strong signals.  Plenty of cold too.



I'm game...


----------



## billski (Jan 27, 2015)

Here's your sign


----------



## steamboat1 (Jan 27, 2015)

If you want to play ball first you have to be in the ballpark.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 27, 2015)

Need this to come a tad west...


----------



## billski (Jan 27, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Need this to come a tad west...


Hey BG, it pushed enough west to start snowing moderately here again.  We need a bigger tad....


----------



## ss20 (Jan 27, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Need this to come a tad west...



You sound like a broken record!


----------



## VTKilarney (Jan 29, 2015)

Not a good weekend here in northern Vermont.  Highs in the low single digits with strong winds.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 29, 2015)

VTKilarney said:


> N*ot a good weekend here in northern Vermont.  Highs in the low single digits with strong winds.*



I was going to leave after work, but I may pull the plug.  Will give a final look at 3pm.   

The thing that STINKS is the gf burned a day off on tomorrow and as a teacher she only gets 3 to use so we use them all in winter for 3 day ski trips.


----------



## catsup948 (Jan 29, 2015)

Monday is trending better.  But better it seems for areas where they just got 30 inches of snow.


----------



## catsup948 (Jan 29, 2015)

Canadian still has a decent storm Monday for southern New England.  GFS has moved it south again.  There isn't as strong of high to the north so there is some room for this to come north.  It's better for the mid Atlantic right now.  Faster mover.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 31, 2015)

So this weekend was basically a loss due to negative "high" temps and -20s windchills.

Starting to get concerned that next weekend might not be too far from the same.


----------



## steep911 (Jan 31, 2015)

Yes


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Jan 31, 2015)

Pacific Ridge and PNA relaxation in about 6-7 days could pop a good storm. Something to watch, but I'm not sold due to a neutral AO and a very poor NAO. The transient block can only last for so long.


----------



## fcksummer (Jan 31, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> So this weekend was basically a loss due to negative "high" temps and -20s windchills.
> 
> Starting to get concerned that next weekend might not be too far from the same.



It was a win for me, had a blast today


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 1, 2015)

Climate forecast model pointing to a brutally cold February.  

It's been wrong for November, December, and January, so lets hope the "Broken Clock Theorem" holds and it will be correct this time.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 1, 2015)

GFS trucking in some cold just in time for the az summit!  Sugarloaf is always cold!


----------



## Smellytele (Feb 2, 2015)

Something maybe brewing for later this week as well. Euro has it GFS does not. Not opinion just what is being reported.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 2, 2015)

Smellytele said:


> *Something maybe brewing for later this week as well. Euro has it GFS does not.* Not opinion just what is being reported.



The Euro has _two_ "somethings" in the next 7 days.


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 2, 2015)

Small system moving through Wed/Thurs and the chance for something major Sunday. 

Feb is starting to look good.


----------



## WJenness (Feb 2, 2015)

Thinking about taking the next two weeks off... this is insane, and awesome pattern.


----------



## wa-loaf (Feb 2, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> Small system moving through Wed/Thurs and the chance for something major Sunday.
> 
> Feb is starting to look good.



I love driving up to Sugarloaf in the middle of a storm, do not want to drive home in the middle of one ...


----------



## moresnow (Feb 2, 2015)

wa-loaf said:


> I love driving up to Sugarloaf in the middle of a storm, do not want to drive home in the middle of one ...



If that happens you'll have to stay.  It'll be much too dangerous to drive home.


----------



## Not Sure (Feb 2, 2015)

wa-loaf said:


> I love driving up to Sugarloaf in the middle of a storm, do not want to drive home in the middle of one ...



LOL....One does not drive away from a ski area in a storm ...."I'm Snowed in !"


edit  facepalm ..what Moresnow said


----------



## j law (Feb 2, 2015)

I am only going to get one day on the slopes this year but I'm hoping for a perfect 10 powder day at some point towards the end of February or early March.  I like that the models are setting up nicely!


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----------



## wa-loaf (Feb 2, 2015)

moresnow said:


> If that happens you'll have to stay.  It'll be much too dangerous to drive home.





Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> LOL....One does not drive away from a ski area in a storm ...."I'm Snowed in !"
> 
> 
> edit  facepalm ..what Moresnow said



lol, normally the case, but the folks watching my kids won't see it that way. And they also know that I drove up to Maine mid-Nemo 2 years ago so it's got to be one hell of a storm to keep me off the roads.


----------



## Not Sure (Feb 2, 2015)

j law said:


> I am only going to get one day on the slopes this year but I'm hoping for a perfect 10 powder day at some point towards the end of February or early March.  I like that the models are setting up nicely!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Had a few "One day years " a long time ago, Hope you get in shape first, strech , exer.


----------



## bigbog (Feb 2, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> How do you keep your boots warm in that kind of weather ?


a few...
Skip the AM caffeine...
A really warm core...
A little room for warm air in the toebox and width enough for the Metatarsals...
the Boot Glove...or maybe part of it? (yet to try)...
Slightly thicker/warmer liners...
Anti-perspirant powder...
(have heard of) black? pepper mixed with the powder...

Am no expert but when SL is home...you need a plan..


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 2, 2015)

moresnow said:


> *If that happens you'll have to stay.  It'll be much too dangerous to drive home*.



Reminds me of the time I was stuck in the Florida Keys on Spring Break because the only road in/out of the chain was impassable due to wild fires.  That didn't suck.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 2, 2015)

Starting to get worried another weekend is going to feature significant sub-zero windchills and high winds.


----------



## ScottySkis (Feb 2, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Starting to get worried another weekend is going to feature significant sub-zero windchills and high winds.



Breaks several and tea keeping you warm just get out while conditions are great.


----------



## billski (Feb 2, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Starting to get worried another weekend is going to feature significant sub-zero windchills and high winds.


Who cares?  I've skied at least four days on the negative Fahrenheit scale this year.  I've also not seen any of the winds meet their advertised ferocity.  When all else fails, go to Magic


----------



## prsboogie (Feb 2, 2015)

bigbog said:


> a few...
> Skip the AM caffeine...
> A really warm core...
> A little room for warm air in the toebox and width enough for the Metatarsals...
> ...



I've used the Boot Glove and his year and it works pretty well. Or at least my head tells me it does


----------



## billski (Feb 2, 2015)

re: warm feet.   I was skiing with a woman last weekend who insists that two layers of thin socks, with cayenne pepper between the sock layers will do the trick.  Maybe, but I don't wanna mess with cayenne pepper during a day of skiing.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 3, 2015)

Sunday/monday has a similar look to yesterday's storm.  Funny.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 4, 2015)

The 10-day is a veritable roller-coaster of Lows scrambling through the northeast, and with PLENTY of cold air firmly entrenched.   This pattern looks really great to produce white gold.


----------



## hammer (Feb 4, 2015)

Any prognostics looking into March?  Also, I sure hope the snow backs off in the flatlands...after nearly 4 feet in a week I've had enough in my yard...


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 4, 2015)

hammer said:


> *Any prognostics looking into March?*



No, I've only seen the 1-month forward climate model for February.  But if you think about it, the climate model for November, December, and January were all wrong (warm, cold, warm versus cold, warm, cold), so I dont put much faith/stock in it.


----------



## dlague (Feb 4, 2015)

For what it is worth:

"Skiers, I think you're going to have some good skiing weather for the Rockies going into March and maybe even April as well," AccuWeather.com Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

In the Midwest and Northeastern states, chilly shots will linger into March. The cool air will be punctuated by milder days, but overall, the eastern half of the nation will have to wait until May for prolonged warmth.

Northeast Warm-Dry Late


----------



## ss20 (Feb 4, 2015)

Warmth is OK as long as it's dry.  Let's not have a repeat of March 2012 either...


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 4, 2015)

I don't believe anything accuweather says. I guess the pattern could completely flip from cold and wet to warm and dry.  If we ever get a -NAO march could go bananas with snow and cold.  If we don't I'd think warm and wet is more likely than warm and dry.


----------



## VTKilarney (Feb 4, 2015)

They are predicting severe thunderstorms in the south this spring?  Hmm... who would have thought?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 4, 2015)

Something strange is going on with the models today for next week.  I believe what we'll come to learn is something complex is confusing them. 

 The GFS is showing approximately 2.5 days of non-stop snow for most of the entire northeast (hardly likely), the Euro shows two big Lows in quick succession (one progressive cutting under PA/NJ & one dropping through ADK, then NNE), and at 7 days the Canuck is showing this absolutely ginormous monster (below).








So I have absolutely no idea what..........,but I think by Sunday we might have something exciting to talk about.

Murphy's Law being what it is, however, the models are predicting what I think would probably be near record cold negative temperatures for Presidents Weekend.  Hopefully that bit falls apart.


----------



## billski (Feb 4, 2015)

hammer said:


> Any prognostics looking into March?  Also, I sure hope the snow backs off in the flatlands...after nearly 4 feet in a week I've had enough in my yard...


I predict St. Patty's day, a full moon and 31 days.


----------



## St. Bear (Feb 4, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Something strange is going on with the models today for next week.  I believe what we'll come to learn is something complex is confusing them.
> 
> The GFS is showing approximately 2.5 days of non-stop snow for most of the entire northeast (hardly likely), the Euro shows two big Lows in quick succession (one progressive cutting under PA/NJ & one dropping through ADK, then NNE), and at 7 days the Canuck is showing this absolutely ginormous monster (below).
> 
> ...




http://www.weathernj.com/feb-4-arct...rrunning-potential-for-snow-beginning-sunday/


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 4, 2015)

None of the models are doing very well as of late.  Blend them!  Overrunning systems followed by massive coastal.  If only it was this easy.  All I know is that it is an active cold  pattern and there will be chances followed by bitter cold.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 4, 2015)

Still cold for Friday/Saturday, but it's gotten a bit better for sure than the runs of just a few days ago.  That and, more importantly, the isobars are displaying nowhere near as stacked as they once were.  Looks like this weekend's a go.


----------



## ss20 (Feb 4, 2015)

Start the thread!  Start the thread!  Start the thread!  Start the thread!


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 8, 2015)

Clipper on Thursday looks decent on the GFS and Canadian.  Tries to redevelop into bigger storm for eastern New england.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 8, 2015)

Next weekend still looks hellaciously brutal.  

Which is a dang shame as there's nothing I'd like more than to get back into the conditions currently in VT right now, but not at the below temperatures.   Probably have about 48 hours to hope the models back off on this nonsense, but it's not looking good right now.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 8, 2015)

I'm getting a little tired of the cold.  I got frost bite on my nose at Sugarloaf this weekend.


----------



## fbrissette (Feb 9, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> I'm getting a little tired of the cold.  I got frost bite on my nose at Sugarloaf this weekend.



I hear you.  I froze my toes more time this year than the total of the past 4 years.  Temperature trends are very robust 4 days out. Looks like another cold as hell week-end. No lift lines at least.


----------



## dlague (Feb 9, 2015)

Thursday looks to be another 4-6 inch event in NH


----------



## Puck it (Feb 9, 2015)

My nose can't take the another cold weekend.  It needs a 20 degree day.


----------



## dlague (Feb 9, 2015)

Puck it said:


> My nose can't take the another cold weekend.  It needs a 20 degree day.



Look up Sunday - looks like -3 for the high at the base of Cannon.


----------



## St. Bear (Feb 9, 2015)

Puck it said:


> My nose can't take the another cold weekend.  It needs a 20 degree day.



Move to NJ.  20 degrees is the worst it gets down here.


----------



## dlague (Feb 9, 2015)

Just saw this on FB can this be true woohoo!

*Meteorological Weather Lab*

Good Morning on this Monday, February 9th 2015.

We are aware of the situation that is going on in the Northeast and New England right now.

Outside the Meteorological Weather Lab Headquarters stationed here In Brooklyn ( New York), Sleet Continues to fall from this (Long Duration Winter storm) we and much of New England are experiencing, but many missed out and that is what we want to bring to your attention of what we now feel certain a very good pattern change is taking place.

We have 3 to 4 Potential storms to watch and
3 of them are going to be Blizzards

1) The first one is still on the table for February 12th thru 13th.
Computer Model guidance is consistent wit this scenario that the
storm has the potential of being a Blizzard for Nova Scotia Canada as it comes down from the Great lakes, Form a Coastal Low off of New Jersey and heads up into New England, thus New England points Northward would be getting the worse of the storm and this will be the storm we are going to release the next map for.

2) There is a newly developed storm to watch for the Mid-Atlantic and Canada on the 15th thru 16th of February. Model Guidance was never consistent with this storm so this is just a potential to watch as of now.

3) The storm for February 17th thru the 18th for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast is still Locked on. Confidence continues to build that places in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast is going to see well in excess of 6 inches of snow from this system when all said and done. This (Potential) Continues to become more and more likely with each passing hour leading up to the storm

4) The storm for the 21st thru 23rd of February is still on the Map but is forecasted as of now from the (GFS) Global forecasting system as a Large snowstorm targeting the Upper-Midwest, we will continue to monitor this storm threat and pinpoint what section of the United states is more at risk..

A storm map for the February 12th thru 13th storm will be released shortly and the (GFS) map you see now is the storm for the 17th thru 18th of February for the Ohio-Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast


Stay tuned


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 9, 2015)

^ Obvious hype'sters.  Predicting snow totals 8 or 9 days out, and talking about storms 14 days out are both nonsense.


----------



## Nick (Feb 10, 2015)

I'll buy the hype .. Sold !


----------



## dlague (Feb 10, 2015)

Nick said:


> I'll buy the hype .. Sold !



With all the snow we have and adding that hype - I do not want to be working right now!  Lets see how things unfold - this is a longer range forecasting , hype thread either way.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2015)

If that storm Saturday night could shift to the west a bit, we'd have a big one.  Looks like an OTS miss at the moment, but there's still time.


----------



## 4aprice (Feb 10, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> If that storm Saturday night could shift to the west a bit, we'd have a big one.  Looks like an OTS miss at the moment, but there's still time.



JB has his sights set on the period around the 20th.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 10, 2015)

Tuesday could end up being the best chance for a good storm.  Miller A, right out of the gulf of Mexico.  Transient blocking.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 11, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> If that storm Saturday night could shift to the west a bit, we'd have a big one.  Looks like an OTS miss at the moment, but there's still time.



This has made some jumps at 12z.  0z runs will could get the hype going on this one.  Another big storm for eastern new england?  Wind, heavy snow, lets see how the drama unfolds....


----------



## Abominable (Feb 11, 2015)

Do it!


----------



## Smellytele (Feb 11, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> This has made some jumps at 12z.  0z runs will could get the hype going on this one.  Another big storm for eastern new england?  Wind, heavy snow, lets see how the drama unfolds....



Wmur in NH is heavily hinting/leaning toward this storm now


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 11, 2015)

I'm not to interested in this one for us here in western mass yet.   We do better in setups like the last two storms.  Tuesday/Wednesday interests me a lot more with a low tracking over southeast New England.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> This has made some jumps at 12z.  0z runs will could get the hype going on this one.  Another big storm for eastern new england?  Wind, heavy snow, lets see how the drama unfolds....



The 12z Canadian developed a Norlun trough.   That would be pretty amazing for whoever's under that, I'd love to experience one of those.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 12, 2015)

Loving the 12z GFS for Wednesday.  Shoots a 985 mb low quickly over the canal.  Could be quick foot around here!


----------



## dlague (Feb 12, 2015)

Meanwhile this weekend looks promising so far!

http://www.wcvb.com/weather/forecas...zzard-in-massachusetts/31219578?absolute=true


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2015)

dlague said:


> Meanwhile this weekend looks promising so far!
> 
> http://www.wcvb.com/weather/forecas...zzard-in-massachusetts/31219578?absolute=true



Too far east for most ski areas.  Better than nothing I suppose.  Folks in eastern Massachusetts might start waving white flags.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2015)

Might hit Platty on Saturday.  Saturday might be the only day to salvage some skiing this weekend, and I see no point heading further north than the Catskills given the expected temps.


----------



## dlague (Feb 12, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Too far east for most ski areas.  Better than nothing I suppose.  Folks in eastern Massachusetts might start waving white flags.



Works for Maine and NH!


----------



## hammer (Feb 12, 2015)

Hope this blows into central NH, thinking of going to Ragged on Monday...


----------



## dlague (Feb 12, 2015)

hammer said:


> Hope this blows into central NH, thinking of going to Ragged on Monday...



6-12 ish?


----------



## VTKilarney (Feb 12, 2015)

I'm getting tired of weekday temps in the 20's followed by frigid weekend temperatures.


----------



## VTKilarney (Feb 12, 2015)




----------



## catsup948 (Feb 12, 2015)

Euro further south for Wednesday.  To far out to start getting serious but I like the Candian and GFS better for here.


----------



## JDMRoma (Feb 12, 2015)

Would be nice if Northern NH had the depth of snow we have down in the southern end of the State......
Kinda weird to come home and have to shovel more snow that what you skied in that day.....not complaining just sayn !


----------



## Puck it (Feb 12, 2015)

JDMRoma said:


> Would be nice if Northern NH had the depth of snow we have down in the southern end of the State......
> Kinda weird to come home and have to shovel more snow that what you skied in that day.....not complaining just sayn !



And throw in some 20 degree days !!!!!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2015)

VTKilarney said:


> I'm getting tired of weekday temps in the 20's followed by frigid weekend temperatures.



Seriously, it stinks.  This will be the 4th abnormally cold weekend in a row (next weekend might be 5).

  Better than the alternative, of course, but it would be nice to have some 20 to 30 degree weekend days sprinkled in.


----------



## dlague (Feb 12, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Seriously, it stinks.  This will be the 4th abnormally cold weekend in a row (next weekend might be 5).
> 
> Better than the alternative, of course, but it would be nice to have some 20 to 30 degree weekend days sprinkled in.



No kidding!  But I do think of this as snow preservation with little melting going on and the PP stays really nice and even the woods are getting refreshed every 3-4 days.  I will be skiing both Saturday and Sunday.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 13, 2015)

Interesting to see how the rest of winter looks.  Climo has to take over near the coast at some point.  Average high temps are mid 40s near Boston by March 1st.  Right now the cold to the north is suppressing storms into just the right spot for big paydirt out east.  March is usually good here north.  March isn't a winter month or a snowy month all that often out that way.  2013 is only one I can think of.  Last year was just cold. 2012, 2011, 2010 were warm as I remember.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2015)

^ Well, as brutally cold as it's going to be Sunday and Monday, some models are actually spitting out even colder figures for the middle of next week.


----------



## Cannonball (Feb 13, 2015)

What gives with the temp forecasts for this weekend. All of the warnings are for 'coldest of the season'.  But  when I look at the temp forecasts (Franconia for example) they all call for high of 8 Sunday and 5 Monday.  That's cold for sure, but we've had a couple recent weekends that were colder than that.  2 Saturdays ago it never broke 0 and the wind was screaming.  What's the discrepancy?


----------



## deadheadskier (Feb 13, 2015)

I thought last weekend was perfectly comfortable skiing weather.  It was in the single digits at MRG, but comfortable.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2015)

Cannonball said:


> What gives with the temp forecasts for this weekend. All of the warnings are for 'coldest of the season'.  But  when I look at the temp forecasts (Franconia for example) they all *call for high of 8 Sunday and 5 Monday.  That's cold for sure, but we've had a couple recent weekends that were colder than that.*  2 Saturdays ago it never broke 0 and the wind was screaming.  What's the discrepancy?



They're including windchill, which will make the perceived temps the lowest of the year.

Just pulled the Canuck for 1pm on each of those days, and I'm guessing the closest figures you're seeing are Berlin, and it's 8 and 1, but the 7am figures are 8 and -7.  That said, the models have backed off on the wind a bit with the overnight runs, but not enough to get me out skiing Sunday!


----------



## 4aprice (Feb 13, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> I thought last weekend was perfectly comfortable skiing weather.  It was in the single digits at MRG, but comfortable.



Last weekend was.  This weekend they are talking bout super winds.  I'm going to go out Saturday, but they are talking 30+mph Sunday.  NYC mayor has told the City peeps to stay inside (Steamboat?)

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## Cannonball (Feb 13, 2015)

Wind looks nasty on the coast.  But not too crazy for ski country.


----------



## deadheadskier (Feb 13, 2015)

4aprice said:


> Last weekend was.  This weekend they are talking bout super winds.  I'm going to go out Saturday, but they are talking 30+mph Sunday.  NYC mayor has told the City peeps to stay inside (Steamboat?)
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



I've opted for Crotched instead of Wildcat because of the weather.  This weekend does look a little nasty up North, so I'll stay South. 

My comment was more a general statement towards the weather this past weekend and the two prior that people are complaining about.  It has been great ski weather IMO. If folks have been cold, then they haven't been skiing hard enough.


----------



## ScottySkis (Feb 13, 2015)

Snow talk for Hudson valley for next Tuesday February 17?


----------



## Puck it (Feb 13, 2015)

Cannonball said:


> Wind looks nasty on the coast. But not too crazy for ski country.



I see a 77 at the summit of the Rockpile.  Cannon can't be far behind. The majority of these have to be surface winds.


----------



## dlague (Feb 13, 2015)

Puck it said:


> I see a 77 at the summit of the Rockpile.  Cannon can't be far behind. The majority of these have to be surface winds.




Would imagine wind holds will be the case in NH and ME.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 13, 2015)

ScottySkis said:


> Snow talk for Hudson valley for next Tuesday February 17?



Tuesday Wednesday went from a nice hit for ski country to a small hit for se mass in 12 hours on the models.  This still has a lot of room to change.


----------



## jrmagic (Feb 13, 2015)

4aprice said:


> Last weekend was.  This weekend they are talking bout super winds.  I'm going to go out Saturday, but they are talking 30+mph Sunday.  NYC mayor has told the City peeps to stay inside (Steamboat?)
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



LMAO! Did he really??? I hadn't heard that yet. What an asshat. It will most definitely be cold but if you are dressed properly it should be manageable provided you can get to the top.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2015)

jrmagic said:


> LMAO! Did he really??? I hadn't heard that yet. What an asshat. It will most definitely be cold but if you are dressed properly it should be manageable provided you can get to the top.



de Blasio's a far-left extremist.  He'll tell you when you should poop if you let him (and probably devise a "pooping tax" somehow).


----------



## dlague (Feb 13, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Tuesday Wednesday went from a nice hit for ski country to a small hit for se mass in 12 hours on the models.  This still has a lot of room to change.



Reported on the news that it will be a miss


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2015)

dlague said:


> Reported on the news that it will be a miss



Seems odd, it's still a decent little shot on the GFS.  The Canuck is taking it too far south and east.


----------



## mriceyman (Feb 13, 2015)

dlague said:


> Reported on the news that it will be a miss



News is always a day late with storms days away


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 13, 2015)

dlague said:


> Reported on the news that it will be a miss



Of course they did.  I think this ends up coming back north again.  It did on the 18z GFS.  Does it come back north enough for ski country? Time will tell.


----------



## Not Sure (Feb 14, 2015)

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=us&model=gfs&run=00&fhr=99&field=ptype

And the Train keeps going, maybe some love for the Southern Trash Tuesday?
Looking like a glazed donut around here.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 15, 2015)

Euro brought this north more last night.  Gives Berkshire East about 1.5 inches of snow!  We are still below average out here despite almost 3 feet the last 2 weeks.


----------



## VTKilarney (Feb 15, 2015)

Burke is reporting 3 inches.  


.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 15, 2015)

This BS with the weekend cold is really starting to pizz me off.  Looks like another non-Vermont weekend upcoming.  Luckily, the Catskills are fantastic right now, but still..... (sigh) still plenty of time for the models to be wrong I guess.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 16, 2015)

Cold all week here.  Sucks!


----------



## WWF-VT (Feb 16, 2015)

18 below on my deck @ 7 AM here at Mt Ellen.  It was brutally cold skiing yesterday and today could be a day that I skip because of the cold temperatures and wind


----------



## Cannonball (Feb 16, 2015)

Just went out for coffee.  Lincoln, NH....


----------



## drjeff (Feb 16, 2015)

The weather underground station in my condo complex at Mount Snow is reporting -15 right now   At least the wind gusts have decreased from "house shaking" like they were last night down to just "chimney flue rattling"!!!  Still with a -40 windchill currently up here and wind holds preventing summit access right now, me and the kids are going to have a leisurely morning and hit the hill around lunchtime!!


----------



## Cannonball (Feb 16, 2015)

drjeff said:


> me and the kids are going to have a leisurely morning and hit the hill around lunchtime!!



Same here....lunchtime tomorrow!


----------



## drjeff (Feb 16, 2015)

Cannonball said:


> Same here....lunchtime tomorrow!



That might be the case for my 11 year old!!  My 9 year old WANTS to get back into the trees today after yesterday!! That might warrant putting on a bunch of layers once the wind hopefully lets down a bit as it's forcasted too and Mount Snow can safely get more than a 12 minute ride fixed grip triple to mid mountain open!!


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 16, 2015)

I'm not skiing today.  Going bowling instead!


----------



## drjeff (Feb 16, 2015)

Mount Snow during the last 45 minutes put the bubbles on the haul rope and opened up the Bluebird - I'm getting ready to layer up and go grab a few runs on this crystal clear, COLD day! The winds, while still present, have definitely let down a good deal the last f maew hours (blowing maybe 15 steady with gusts to 20-25 now)


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 16, 2015)

drjeff said:


> The weather underground station in my condo complex at Mount Snow is reporting -15 right now   At least the wind gusts have decreased from "house shaking" like they were last night down to just "chimney flue rattling"!!!  Still with a -40 windchill currently up here and wind holds preventing summit access right now, me and the kids are going to have a leisurely morning and hit the hill around lunchtime!!



How had Mount Snow been attendance wise IYO during the key holiday periods of Christmas, MLK, and PDW this season?



catsup948 said:


> I'm not skiing today.  Going bowling instead!



Sounds like a good call.


----------



## dlague (Feb 16, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> How had Mount Snow been attendance wise IYO during the key holiday periods of Christmas, MLK, and PDW this season?
> 
> 
> 
> Sounds like a good call.




Christmas (R!%n), MLK day (R!%n), and PDW (freezing and windy)  Attendance was low across each of these days.  Primarily hard cores out on those days!


----------



## dlague (Feb 16, 2015)




----------



## drjeff (Feb 16, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> How had Mount Snow been attendance wise IYO during the key holiday periods of Christmas, MLK, and PDW this season?
> 
> 
> 
> Sounds like a good call.



Hit or miss - each Holiday period you listed had one "big" day, but then followed them up with either an "average" winter weekend day or even a few light "any day of the week" days - so while the snowpack has been good (even during the wet x-mas and MLK events) the overall crowd volume I'm guessing is off - and just this afternoon, my condo complex that stated the weekend with just under 300 cars in the parking lots (for reference sake a usual weekend is about 225-40 cars and the HUGE Friday of x-mas week Mount Snow had had almost 400 cars in our lots) is down to maybe 150 cars tops now - even my favorite base lodge bar which usually has all its barstools occupied by 11:30 had 7 or 8 out of 20 open bar stools when I went in for lunch at 1:15 today!! GREAT conditions, just poor timing to generate the weekend day tripper crowds that benefit both Mount Snow and the surrounding local businesses so far for most of this season - we need some 20+ degree, precip free weekends the next month or so to make this now GREAT snow year also a GREAT business year!!


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 16, 2015)

GFS doesn't want to give up this cold until... Who knows.  Sunday is all over the place on models.  Euro wants to crush everyone's hopes and dreams while the GFS stays cold and south for most.  This will be fun to track this week.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 17, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> *GFS doesn't want to give up this cold until... Who knows.*



Supposedly the first week of March we get above 32 temps.  Nothing dramatic, but they last day and night until the end of the current range (March 5th) and there'd likely be some rain.  Still 15 days out, so hopefully it's wrong.


----------



## billski (Feb 17, 2015)

Word seems to be that our winters will be shorter but more intense.


----------



## billski (Feb 17, 2015)

What's all this moaning about "cold" temperatures.  I dress right, take more breaks and enjoy the place all to myself.   Not the first time i've been out in negative single numbers. 

Winds? just go into the woods.  A whole 'nother world.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 17, 2015)

billski said:


> *What's all this moaning about "cold" temperatures.  I dress right, take more breaks and enjoy the place all to myself.   Winds? just go into the woods. * A whole 'nother world.



I guess you were skinning it when myriad resorts just closed due to extreme cold and/or high winds?


----------



## billski (Feb 17, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> I guess you were skinning it when myriad resorts just closed due to extreme cold and/or high winds?


Downhillin' at Magic.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 17, 2015)

After Sunday things don't let up.  Middle of the week looks very interesting.


----------



## VTKilarney (Feb 18, 2015)

The Eye on the Sky folks posted on their Facebook page that this is one of the longest stretches of below freezing temperatures since modern records have been kept.


----------



## thetrailboss (Feb 18, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> After Sunday things don't let up.  Middle of the week looks very interesting.



I'm interested in the long term forecasts as I'm coming to the NEK next week. Fingers crossed that the skiing is epic.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 18, 2015)

The 18z GFS came in a bit colder, which would spare the s.VT mountains and put Gore in the "safe" zone.

Also cuts down on sum of time it rains in the Catskills, though they'd still get some rain.  The below pic is the temps aloft during the warm temperature's, "High-water mark of the Confederacy".






It will be interesting to see if the Canadian model gets colder tonight, because that model was so warm it had rain all the way into Montreal (i.e. nobody got spared from the rain).  I never saw the 12z Canuck ensemble run, but the 12z OP was so drastic that it wouldnt shock me if it was an outlier.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 19, 2015)

00z Canuck is significantly colder than the 12z Canuck.   Would be a little bit of rain up north, but nothing dramatic.  This model was the nightmare scenario 12 hours ago, so this is great news.


----------



## mriceyman (Feb 19, 2015)

This year its always better to have a worse scenario 4 days out as the models are struggling really bad to find the real outcome. This last month has been a trend better within 72


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## billski (Feb 19, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> 00z Canuck is significantly colder than the 12z Canuck.   Would be a little bit of rain up north, but nothing dramatic.  This model was the nightmare scenario 12 hours ago, so this is great news.



BG, what's your bet on where "rain up north" will fall.  You thinking southern NH?  Let's not forget these are valley temps.  subtract 5 to 10 degrees for summits.


----------



## billski (Feb 19, 2015)

Mez007>009-nhz002>004-191845-
elevations from 2500 to 4000 feet in northern new hampshire and the
western maine mountains-
331 am est thu feb 19 2015

...recreation forecast for elevations between 2500 and 4000 feet in
northern new hampshire and the western maine mountains...

.today...snow. Highs 12 to 22. South winds around 20 mph increasing
to northwest around 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph this afternoon.
Chance of snow near 100 percent. Wind chill values as low as
23 below.
.tonight...summits obscured. Snow likely in the evening...then a
chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows 5 below to 15 below
zero. Northwest winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. Chance
of snow 70 percent. Wind chill values as low as 47 below.
.friday...summits obscured. A chance of snow showers in the morning.
Highs 5 below to 5 above zero. Northwest winds 50 to 60 mph with
gusts up to 70 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. Wind chill values as
low as 50 below.

$$

mez007>009-nhz002>004-191845-
summits above 4000 feet in northern new hampshire and western maine-
331 am est thu feb 19 2015

...recreation forecast for summits above 4000 feet in northern
new hampshire and western maine...

.today...summits obscured. Snow. Highs around 12...except 3 to
13 above at elevations above 5000 feet. Southwest winds around
20 mph increasing to northwest around 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
this afternoon. Chance of snow 80 percent. Wind chill values as low
as 36 below.
.tonight...summits obscured. Snow likely in the evening...then a
chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows 12 below to 22 below
zero. Northwest winds 40 to 50 mph...except northwest 55 to 65 mph
at elevations above 5000 feet. Chance of snow 70 percent. Wind chill
values as low as 61 below.
.friday...summits obscured. A chance of snow showers in the morning.
Highs 1 below to 11 below zero. Northwest winds 55 to 65 mph...
Except northwest 75 to 85 mph at elevations above 5000 feet. Chance
of snow 40 percent. Wind chill values as low as 64 below.

$$


----------



## 4aprice (Feb 19, 2015)

The NAO is currently positive so I guess an inland runner is possible, but boy that's a lot of cold air to be eroded by a tongue of warm air.  JB was showing the downward trend of the NAO into negative as we go into March and April which is something we want to see. 


Alex


Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 19, 2015)

billski said:


> *BG, what's your bet on where "rain up north" will fall.  You thinking southern NH?*  Let's not forget these are valley temps.  subtract 5 to 10 degrees for summits.



The 06z GFS comes in even better.   ALL of ski country would be spared from heavy rain with the exception of the Pocono Mountains.  (obviously).  The below is the "worst" it gets via the 06z run (i.e. it's the northernmost panel I could pull). With the air near or just over 32 temps in some areas (2nd pic), maybe mix or sleet, but that's better than a hard, wet, driving rain, and elevation might save the day as you note. * The 12z runs will be key to see if this positive trend continues.*

In addition to the elevation you pointed out, the weather models anticipate much, but they do not account for snow-cover, so we've got that going for us too (for those who don't know, snowpack helps keep temps down a tiny bit).


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 19, 2015)

It will minimize any non-snow precip as well, so even if we have to see sleet/freezing rain the less mixes in the better.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 19, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> It will minimize any non-snow precip as well, so even if we have to see sleet/freezing rain the less mixes in the better.



Exactly.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 19, 2015)

12z GFS is out, not finished yet, but it's out to 90 hours so we can see this weekend. 

 It's even better still.    Now even the Poconos may be spared the worst of it *if this is correct *(r/s line basically cuts right across where the ski resorts are).

Vermont / New Hampshire wouldn't see a drop of rain, nor the ADK and probably not even the Cats.  Looks like a pretty nice ski weekend actually.


----------



## dlague (Feb 19, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> The 06z GFS comes in even better.   ALL of ski country would be spared from heavy rain with the exception of the Pocono Mountains.  (obviously).  The below is the "worst" it gets via the 06z run (i.e. it's the northernmost panel I could pull). With the air near or just over 32 temps in some areas (2nd pic), maybe mix or sleet, but that's better than a hard, wet, driving rain, and elevation might save the day as you note. * The 12z runs will be key to see if this positive trend continues.*
> 
> In addition to the elevation you pointed out, the weather models anticipate much, but they do not account for snow-cover, so we've got that going for us too (for those who don't know, snowpack helps keep temps down a tiny bit).



It looks like the temps in the northern parts of NH and ME will stay low enough to keep precip as snow and with the wind coming in from the cold air mass it will hopefully sure up the snowfall.  Further south in NH and in MA it may not hold as snowfall.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 19, 2015)

dlague said:


> Further south in *NH and in MA it may not hold as snowfall.*



Check out my last post with most recent data.  NH would be good to go.  Berks MIGHT see a tiny bit of mixing, but no big deal.

I'll really want to see the 12z Canadian, because it's been good this winter and is the warmest of the models, but the last run was much colder.


----------



## VTKilarney (Feb 19, 2015)

This is fantastic news.  Let's hope this holds up.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 19, 2015)

12z Canadian is slightly warmer than last run (I think), but still looks okay.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 19, 2015)

My "Go/No-Go" Vermont decision for next weekend will have to be made via tonight's 00z runs.  Saturday looks fine, but Friday is dicey.


----------



## Not Sure (Feb 19, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> My "Go/No-Go" Vermont decision for next weekend will have to be made via tonight's 00z runs.  Saturday looks fine, but Friday is dicey.



So I guess Pa is Doomed as usual ?
I've seen some forecasts flipping back and forth between 37-50f in Eastern Pa.


----------



## Smellytele (Feb 19, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> My "Go/No-Go" Vermont decision for next weekend will have to be made via tonight's 00z runs.  Saturday looks fine, but Friday is dicey.



By dicey Friday you mean...


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 19, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> So I guess Pa is Doomed as usual ?
> I've seen some forecasts flipping back and forth between 37-50f in Eastern Pa.



It's much better than it looked yesterday.  If the cold & south trend were to continue (big if) it might even be snow, but either way it no longer appears to be a drenching rain.   It's not going to be anywhere near 50f.



Smellytele said:


> By dicey Friday you mean...



Ski day ambient temps in n.VT of probably something like -5 to a high of 5.  Without any wind, should be tolerable.  Throw wind into the mix, or any move lower from there and it's just not worth the long drive from New Jersey to ski in perceived -20s (or worse) temps.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 19, 2015)

Worth mentioning next Wednesday if only to dream.  

The Euro shows a big New England snowstorm for next Wednesday.  
The Canadian has the storm too, but it's OTS.  
The Japanese model has a storm too, but a bit off the coast.
The American model is in right field humming Simon & Garfunkel tunes.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 19, 2015)

Euro has done a good job sniffing out these larger threats.  It hasn't handled the details in the end well.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 20, 2015)

Euro still loving the huge coastal for Wednesday. GFS says "what coastal?"


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 21, 2015)

Euro and GFS show a fairly robust system next weekend.  Both are very different.  196 hours so it's nothing to hang your hat on yet.


----------



## xwhaler (Feb 21, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Euro and GFS show a fairly robust system next weekend.  Both are very different.  196 hours so it's nothing to hang your hat on yet.



Yes please!!   In NVT all wknd.  Bring it up there!!


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Feb 21, 2015)

BTW the GFS has been kicking ass this year ever since the blizzard. The upgrade really did work.

The EURO has been dethroned.


----------



## moresnow (Feb 21, 2015)

Boston Bulldog said:


> BTW the GFS has been kicking ass this year ever since the blizzard. The upgrade really did work.
> 
> The EURO has been dethroned.



Then there is this take on it:
http://www.economist.com/news/scien...talk-about-weather-more-americans-do-they-are


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 21, 2015)

It doesn't seem to me that there's been any clear cut winner this year between the Canadian, US, and European models.  They've all had wins.   Does seem most professionals still lean on the Euro though, even if its' advantage has lessened.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 22, 2015)

Numerous mets are talking about a possible pattern change upcoming that would lose all this arctic air we've been experiencing and lead to at least a few early March days that could hit as high as 60 in NJ, 50s in s.NE and 40s in N.NE. Still 9 or 10 days out, so lets hope it doesnt happen.


----------



## billski (Feb 22, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Numerous mets are talking about a possible pattern change upcoming that would lose all this arctic air we've been experiencing and lead to at least a few early March days that could hit as high as 60 in NJ, 50s in s.NE and 40s in N.NE. Still 9 or 10 days out, so lets hope it doesnt happen.


:uzi:BG, I'm going to report you for obscene posts.  I've never heard more filthy, repugnant language in my life!   I sentence you   40 runs on Besser bindings with straps!


----------



## Quietman (Feb 22, 2015)

I know that it may not make me popular, but I really enjoyed a slightly above 32 degree sunny day on the slopes today. It has been fricking  cold for a long time.  The weather stations are calling this stretch of weather as historic(I hate that), but 30 days of below freezing temps and 73" of snow in 4 weeks at my house is unmatched in the last 30 years.


----------



## 4aprice (Feb 23, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Numerous mets are talking about a possible pattern change upcoming that would lose all this arctic air we've been experiencing and lead to at least a few early March days that could hit as high as 60 in NJ, 50s in s.NE and 40s in N.NE. Still 9 or 10 days out, so lets hope it doesnt happen.



This is interesting but its something that has got to be expected at some point.  The NAO despite some forecasts has so far refused to go negative (JB showed a forecast that said it would but I just looked and that has changed).  We've had quite the run and I would expect it to snap back the other way big time.  Sometimes pattern changes come about with big storms (ex Superstorm 93 changed the pattern). That's my biggest hope.  Hopefully a slow melt out and lots of spring skiing.  I do look forward to the warmth and sun and being in the mountains.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## snoseek (Feb 23, 2015)

We got a pattern change out in the Sierra....went from hot and dry to cold and dry. Now the mountain and all its cornices, chutes and steep tree lines are a solid block of ice. Can't. Fucking. Win.

Looking forward to spring skiing slushy bumps back east when this abortion of a ski season finally comes to an end.


Edit, I was curious and looked up YTD snowfalls in our area. under 150 inches at Kirkwood. 64 inches at heavenly. Most of it fell back in December so with highs in the 40's and 50 everyday for over six weeks its mostly long gone. I've yet to shovel once down at lake level....it is BAD


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 23, 2015)

billski said:


> :uzi:BG, I'm going to report you for obscene posts.  I've never heard more filthy, repugnant language in my life!   I sentence you   40 runs on Besser bindings with straps!



It's only a FEW days!

Here's something you'll like better, Bastardi just posted the long-range climate model, it's below-normal cold for as far as the model goes out to (45 days)!   VT, DAX, Cats extremely cold.


----------



## dlague (Feb 23, 2015)

billski said:


> :uzi:BG, I'm going to report you for obscene posts.  I've never heard more filthy, repugnant language in my life!   I sentence you   40 runs on Besser bindings with straps!



+1



snoseek said:


> We got a pattern change out in the Sierra....went from hot and dry to cold and dry. Now the mountain and all its cornices, chutes and steep tree lines are a solid block of ice. Can't. Fucking. Win.
> 
> Looking forward to spring skiing slushy bumps back east when this abortion of a ski season finally comes to an end.
> 
> ...



Considering the winter we are having in the Northeast, I feel bad for you but we have been due this snow for quite some time!



Quietman said:


> I know that it may not make me popular, but I really enjoyed a slightly above 32 degree sunny day on the slopes today. It has been fricking  cold for a long time.  The weather stations are calling this stretch of weather as historic(I hate that), but 30 days of below freezing temps and 73" of snow in 4 weeks at my house is unmatched in the last 30 years.



It is inevitable - spring skiing!  I have to admit as well, I liked the upper 20's at Cannon yesterday.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 23, 2015)

-PNA keeps getting pushed back on models.  Cold air will definitely be here this week.  Maybe it sticks around somewhat into next week. This week is the end of the bitter cold at least which will be a welcome relief for ski country.


----------



## 4aprice (Feb 23, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> It's only a FEW days!
> 
> Here's something you'll like better, Bastardi just posted the long-range climate model, it's below-normal cold for as far as the model goes out to (45 days)!   VT, DAX, Cats extremely cold.



Beat me to it.  Saw that Joe had posted this.  This is what we need, a long drawn out melt an 2 more months of skiing.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## VTKilarney (Feb 23, 2015)

Dang, that's awful for Tahoe.  It seems like, thanks to the jet stream, when the west is warm we are cold in the east - and vice versa.

In northern Vermont, we've had one of the longest stretches of below freezing temps since modern records have been kept (1800's).  Something has to give.  

My fear is that we will go from colder than desired to much warmer than desired.  I'd REALLY like to see at nice stretch of days in the 25-32 degree range before the real warm weather hits.


----------



## snoseek (Feb 23, 2015)

I was back east for most of 10-11 and it was a damn fine year as was most of lower 48. It's been pure drought here ever since that season....this is the new norm and we are in it for the long haul. I need to find a new winter home, which I've put off because life in general is so good....I can't avoid it anymore and assume next year will be the big one.

Anyhow im gonna go skiing now because in the end skiing is still fun as hell


Edit-looking at maybe a spring killington pass if I need to bounce before april 1st


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 24, 2015)

Booking a three night stay at Jay for April vacation! I'm thinking win win for either winter like conditions or spring.


----------



## Edd (Feb 24, 2015)

I'm at SR today and have invented the double balaclava strategy. Patent pending.


----------



## C-Rex (Feb 24, 2015)

Edd said:


> I'm at SR today and have invented the double balaclava strategy. Patent pending.



I was rocking the clava + neck gator a couple weeks ago.

I'm really hoping the Sierras and southern BC get a March Miracle this year.  I'm heading to Red Mountain in mid march and so far it's not looking too good.


----------



## xwhaler (Feb 24, 2015)

What are folks seeing for Northern VT this wknd? 
I'll be doing Bolton, Smuggs, Sugarbush Sat-Monday and hoping either for not brutally cold conditions or even better some snow.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 24, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Booking a three night stay at Jay for April  vacation!* I'm thinking win win for either winter like conditions or  spring.*



I booked a 7-night stay at Smuggs for next month too.  Figured the same thing.



xwhaler said:


> *What are folks seeing for Northern VT this wknd? *
> I'll be doing Bolton, Smuggs, Sugarbush Sat-Monday and hoping either for not brutally cold conditions or even better some snow.


 
BTV wake-up temps and highs those days are -12, 1, 14, and 11, 20, 23 (obviously the mountains will be a bit colder than these) respectively on today's 12z GFS-ENS.   No real snow to speak of until Monday during the day.  Isobars seem fairly benign during your entire stay, so wind doesn't look like an issue.  You were wise to bag Friday.


----------



## soulseller (Feb 24, 2015)

snoseek said:


> I was back east for most of 10-11 and it was a damn fine year as was most of lower 48. It's been pure drought here ever since that season....this is the new norm and we are in it for the long haul. I need to find a new winter home, which I've put off because life in general is so good....I can't avoid it anymore and assume next year will be the big one.



I went to Tahoe March 2011, omgoodness was it good. We caught the tail end of something like a 9 day 200" storm. None of us had ever seen anything like it, one for the memory banks for sure.


----------



## dlague (Feb 24, 2015)

Looks like a few inches will hit ME and parts of Northern NH tonight.  Points North in VT, NH and ME will be start off cold on Friday, a little better on Saturday and pretty nice on Sunday.  Central and Southern areas of New England look to have a cold start on Friday and  be pretty nice on Saturday and Sunday.


----------



## Abominable (Feb 24, 2015)

Seeing a bit of a refresh Sunday night for S VT / Berkshires?  Wunderground calling for a few.

Also, something brewing for mid week next week?  Silly to consider this far out, but when checking the forecast for a couple ski areas for the weekend couldn't help but notice.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 24, 2015)

Abominable said:


> *something brewing for mid week next week?*  Silly to consider this far out, but when checking the forecast for a couple ski areas for the weekend couldn't help but notice.



Tuesday night & Wednesday morning.  GFS and Canadian both have it.  GFS is snow and rain mix as but hopefully mostly snow at elevation.  Canadian is colder, and to my eye a bit more south, stays all snow down to north Jersey.


----------



## Abominable (Feb 24, 2015)

Aha! So now We need your professional opinion- Take a day off Monday hoping for a little refresher or save it for Wednesday or Thursday depending on how it looks.  Tough call, kind of running out of "call in sick" and need to do more of "give a couple days notice."  Frankly I consider that an unreasonable request by management but what can you do?


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 24, 2015)

Candian looks better for Wednesday.  GFS has trended north several runs now. Good thing it's a week away.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 24, 2015)

That 2-day warmup that appeared on both the Euro and the GFS several days back has completely vanished.

Long-range currently looks abnormally cold through mid-March.


----------



## skifree (Feb 24, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> That 2-day warmup that appeared on both the Euro and the GFS several days back has completely vanished.
> 
> Long-range currently looks abnormally cold through mid-March.


Thank you. I am loving the cold


----------



## steamboat1 (Feb 24, 2015)

4aprice said:


> Beat me to it.  Saw that Joe had posted this.  This is what we need, a long drawn out melt an 2 more months of skiing.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Nope what we need is a good a dump.


----------



## Wavewheeler (Feb 25, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Numerous mets are talking about a possible pattern change upcoming that would lose all this arctic air we've been experiencing and lead to at least a few early March days that could hit as high as 60 in NJ, 50s in s.NE and 40s in N.NE. Still 9 or 10 days out, so lets hope it doesnt happen.



I've heard/read the same, which is why I've added two more skiing days this week while the temps are still in the 20s-30s.  I'm keeping an eye on next week's weather. They are predicting 40s/rain where I live but up north could get snow with moderating but still cold temps later next week, in which case I might run up and do another trip, even a day trip, to the Cats. But  I have this feeling that by Mid March our part of the world may be seeing a change...

Is this really so unusual? Seems that in general if you want later season skiing you always have to head north. That's when I start digging around for my hiking and camping equipment.


----------



## ScottySkis (Feb 25, 2015)

Hunter will be open to mid April discount card is amazing deal thinking of spring pass .


----------



## St. Bear (Feb 25, 2015)

Wavewheeler said:


> I've heard/read the same, which is why I've added two more skiing days this week while the temps are still in the 20s-30s.  I'm keeping an eye on next week's weather. They are predicting 40s/rain where I live but up north could get snow with moderating but still cold temps later next week, in which case I might run up and do another trip, even a day trip, to the Cats. But  I have this feeling that by Mid March our part of the world may be seeing a change...
> 
> Is this really so unusual? Seems that in general if you want later season skiing you always have to head north. That's when I start digging around for my hiking and camping equipment.



Not unusual in the least.  Especially when you factor in some mean reversion that we're due.


----------



## hammer (Feb 25, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Numerous mets are talking about a possible pattern change upcoming that would lose all this arctic air we've been experiencing and lead to at least a few early March days that could hit as high as 60 in NJ, 50s in s.NE and 40s in N.NE. Still 9 or 10 days out, so lets hope it doesnt happen.


Has this forecast held up?  Latest I've seen on Accuweather has no real warm-up in sight through at least mid-March...


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 25, 2015)

hammer said:


> Has this forecast held up?  Latest I've seen on Accuweather has no real warm-up in sight through at least mid-March...



No.  My last post in this thread said it fell apart (luckily).


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 25, 2015)

The ten day snow map is encouraging.


----------



## hammer (Feb 25, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> No.  My last post in this thread said it fell apart (luckily).


Thanks, I saw other posts in response and I just wanted to make sure.

Nice to have the sun out for a bit today, helps to melt the ice left in my gutters and shrink the piles at/near home.  Hoping for a slow but steady warm-up from here and then on to spring skiing...


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 25, 2015)

Next Wednesday looks like a decent shot at a region wide snow storm.  It has been on models for awhile now.  We will really have to wait until the weekend to start getting emotional about this one!  7 days is a long way off.


----------



## drjeff (Feb 25, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> The ten day snow map is encouraging.



This projected map is WILD in that were heading into March, with its stronger sun angles and this map shows chance of snow falling in the next 10 days in 47 of the 48 contiguous states!! Only Florida looks to be snow free potential wise in this maps projection!! The cold air is hanging tough!!


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 25, 2015)

Pattern looks nice for northern New england, it's really about that time if year anyway.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 26, 2015)

Hmm.... well this is interesting.

Both the 00z GFS and 00z Canuck came in warmer tonight for the midweek event.  Would be warm enough to be snow, then mix and/or rain pretty much everywhere, maybe even Quebec.  Nothing dramatic as modeled, but might be the end of our amazing streak of nothing but snow if this holds.


----------



## mriceyman (Feb 26, 2015)

Still far far away


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 26, 2015)

Lets put Wednesdays storm on the shelf for a few days.  Monday looks like it could bring 3-6.


----------



## billski (Feb 26, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Lets put Wednesdays storm on the shelf for a few days.  Monday looks like it could bring 3-6.


  Aw man, am I gonna HAVE TO take another vacation day???   


Setting up the Ullr sacrifice table tonight...


----------



## moresnow (Feb 26, 2015)

billski said:


> Aw man, am I gonna HAVE TO take another vacation day???
> 
> 
> Setting up the Ullr sacrifice table tonight...



You only have a table? Ullr deserves better. Time to upgrade to an altar.


----------



## xwhaler (Feb 26, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Lets put Wednesdays storm on the shelf for a few days.  Monday looks like it could bring 3-6.



Yep!   Single Chair Weather Blog calling for 3-6" in the MRV sunday night into Monday.  I will be at Sugarbush first thing Monday AM.  Bring it!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 27, 2015)

Day 2 to D5 are going to have things to talk about.  Dancing on a fault-line though mid-week, high hopes that elevation up north comes through.   Not posting the Canuck snowfall map because I'm 90% sure there's something wrong with it.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 27, 2015)

Next weekend looks comfy.  The streak of mostly negative to 15'ish weekend temps looks to be broken.


----------



## mulva (Feb 27, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Next weekend looks comfy.  The streak of mostly negative to 15'ish weekend temps looks to be broken.



I'll be in Killington with the family that Friday to Sunday.  I'm hoping the little warmup on Wednesday and quick re-freeze doesn't have much of an effect on the ungroomed.  Hoping for more blue blobs and less green blobs on the map


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 28, 2015)

Long range showing some very warm temps (mid-40s) around mid-March.  Guess that should be expected.


----------



## hammer (Feb 28, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Long range showing some very warm temps (mid-40s) around mid-March.  Guess that should be expected.


In the Boston area, average highs in mid-March are in the mid 40s...


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 28, 2015)

low 40s with Sun and temps below freezing at night.  Perfect for a corn harvest!


----------



## octopus (Mar 2, 2015)

here comes the rain again...


----------



## drjeff (Mar 2, 2015)

octopus said:


> here comes the rain again...



When's the last time in ALL of New England you can have not made that statement for all of February? (Unless of course you're an Annie Lennox and Eurythmics fan? ;-) )


----------



## catsup948 (Mar 3, 2015)

GFS op is showing a warm up in the long range.  But it's the long range.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 3, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> *GFS op isn't showing a warm up in the long range.*



Yes it is.

Four straight days (which is as far out as I can go without switching to the climate models so it may well be more than 4 days in a row) with > 32 high temps, even up to Canada.







Fortunately, however, the collective members are colder. A 12 to 27 degree temp discrepancy is pretty dramatic, so the op showing a warmup is most likely an outlier.


----------



## dlague (Mar 3, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> GFS op isn't showing a warm up in the long range.  But it's the long range.





BenedictGomez said:


> Yes it is.
> 
> Four straight days (which is as far out as I can go without switching to the climate models so it may well be more than 4 days in a row) with > 32 high temps, even up to Canada.



Technically it is trending cooler than average with a few days here and there above average.  But there are no scorchers identified as of yet - that can all change.  The long range forecast was discussed a week or two ago.  In any case the sun is getting stronger - so.....


----------



## catsup948 (Mar 3, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yes it is.
> 
> Four straight days (which is as far out as I can go without switching to the climate models so it may well be more than 4 days in a row) with > 32 high temps, even up to Canada.
> 
> ...



Sorry!  Changed it.  I meant to write is.... End of the op run is very warm.


----------



## catsup948 (Mar 3, 2015)

As long at any big warm up holds off until like 3/17 I'm good!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 3, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> As long at any big warm up holds off until like 3/17 I'm good!



That's too early, I want to be skiing trees in n.VT in early April.   On that note, it does seem like the extended models are backing off on the warmth slightly.  This has been a trend for much of the winter.  See the warmth?  Andddd it's gone.


----------



## catsup948 (Mar 3, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> That's too early, I want to be skiing trees in n.VT in early April.   On that note, it does seem like the extended models are backing off on the warmth slightly.  This has been a trend for much of the winter.  See the warmth?  Andddd it's gone.



Yes it's really been doing that all winter.  I would think at some point northern New England will get one last decent winter stretch.  Its not often they go quietly into the night.


----------



## 4aprice (Mar 4, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Yes it's really been doing that all winter.  I would think at some point northern New England will get one last decent winter stretch.  Its not often they go quietly into the night.



Joe Bastardi in his weekly video is calling it a "false spring".  10 day warm up and then more cold relative to normal.  The woods last year survived into the 3rd week in April (at least at K they did) so I don't think it will shut down much.  It's actually going to feel nice not to have to dress super cold this weekend.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 4, 2015)

4aprice said:


> Joe Bastardi in his weekly video is calling it a "false spring".  10 day warm up and then more cold relative to normal.  The woods last year survived into the 3rd week in April (at least at K they did) so I don't think it will shut down much.  It's actually going to feel nice not to have to dress super cold this weekend.



True enough, I just hope it doesn't freeze everything.  I skied at Sugarbush last year right after a warmup/freeze while there was still tons of snow, and it made the woods kind of hard and glazey'.


----------



## hammer (Mar 4, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> True enough, I just hope it doesn't freeze everything.  I skied at Sugarbush last year right after a warmup/freeze while there was still tons of snow, and it made the woods kind of hard and glazey'.


Once that happens I actually want a warm-up during the day.  Soft snow in the glades isn't as good as powder but it's better than the alternative.


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 4, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> True enough, I just hope it doesn't freeze everything.  I skied at Sugarbush last year right after a warmup/freeze while there was still tons of snow, and it made the woods kind of hard and glazey'.



If the woods get hard and glazey they might actually last a bit longer. Especially when (hopefully) some fresh snow falls on top of it in the next few weeks. Southern VT already has a layer of "hard and glazey" under the February snow which gives them a little extra thaw insurance.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 4, 2015)

bdfreetuna said:


> If the woods get hard and glazey they might actually last a bit longer. *Especially when (hopefully) some fresh snow falls on top of it in the next few weeks. *



And that's exactly what happened, so it can ultimately be a good thing.  It's just not optimal if you happen to there on the hard and glazey day.


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## catsup948 (Mar 4, 2015)

Looks warmer next week.  Though it doesn't seem like it will be all that far from average.  High 30's low 40's here with maybe a day later in the week closer to 50.  40 is the average high here. My concern is it warms up enough that later next week things refreeze right when I'm arriving in central vermont.  Give me corn or give me winter.  Nothing in between.


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## dlague (Mar 4, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Looks warmer next week.  Though it doesn't seem like it will be all that far from average.  High 30's low 40's here with maybe a day later in the week closer to 50.  40 is the average high here. My concern is it warms up enough that later next week things refreeze right when I'm arriving in central vermont.  Give me corn or give me winter.  Nothing in between.



Yup refreeze sucks!


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## Jcb890 (Mar 4, 2015)

I'll be up at Killington the 14th & 15th, so hopefully there isn't any re-freezing going on next weekend!

It looks like they're saying it is going to cool after today, then warm back up by the end of the weekend and stay pretty warm throughout the week, then cool back down again for the weekend.
http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw:05751.1.99999


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## catsup948 (Mar 4, 2015)

[http://www]


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## catsup948 (Mar 4, 2015)

Can't post the map right now but the GFS continues to nickel and dime the whites and northern greens with 3-6 maybe more this weekend.


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## catsup948 (Mar 4, 2015)

Candian shows less than an inch.  Boring stuff right now...


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## catsup948 (Mar 5, 2015)

Canadian and Euro still hitting on a Wed-Friday warmup.  GFS says there will be no warm up. 18z GFS is looking pretty sweet for the Greens the next 10 days.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 5, 2015)

Still lookin' good.    Stay the course....


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## deadheadskier (Mar 6, 2015)

Past two days all Matt Noyes has been talking about is nice snow melting weather the middle of next week.  Hope he's wrong.  Actually, I hope he's right for Metro Boston South.


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## hammer (Mar 8, 2015)

OK so what's the latest longer term trends?  Actually concerned that while the cover is great we will be back to firm and fast (and yuck off of the groomed) after mid-week...


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## Jcb890 (Mar 8, 2015)

For forecasts showing through next weekend, it looks to be mostly high-30's and low-40's.  Originally they were saying icy mix on Saturday, but now maybe it'll be some snow instead?  I hope the snow will be good the next 2 weekends! (14/15 & 21/22)


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## catsup948 (Mar 8, 2015)

Candian and GFS have some agreement for next weekend. Definitely something to keep watching. I hope it snows Saturday night, I'll be at Bolton Valley.


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## mulva (Mar 9, 2015)

7-10 inches at Stowe most of it overnight according to their website.  I left yesterday after skiing there at around 3:30.  Hit multiple bands of snow from Waterbury to White River Junction going south on 89, some pretty heavy.  Didn't expect that.  Doh, doh, doh doh!!!!!  I should have turned around and called in sick.


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## St. Bear (Mar 9, 2015)

Time for a separate thread for this weekend?

Where's BG to post some model runs?


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## Jcb890 (Mar 9, 2015)

St. Bear said:


> Time for a separate thread for this weekend?
> 
> Where's BG to post some model runs?



I just created one.  The best websites I know to use are Weather Underground and Snow-Forecast.  I like to use Weather.gov also, but they don't go as far out.

What other good (better?) sites are out there?


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 9, 2015)

St. Bear said:


> Time for a separate thread for this weekend?
> 
> Where's BG to post some model runs?



Still too early to create a separate thread, but there's some agreement for a decent snowfall starting Saturday evening, and no agreement on when it ends, from around 1pm Sunday or much of Monday depending on which model you look at.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 9, 2015)

Of course, as Murphy's law would have it, I'm at Smuggs on Friday and Saturday and leaving on Sunday, which will be the best day.   

I might have to do a 1/2 day ticket on Sunday and at least ski until noon, but under that scenario the GFS would probably turn a 6.5 hour drive into a 10 or 12 hour nightmare.  Sigh..


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## xwhaler (Mar 9, 2015)

Give me a big thump of snow for Central/Northern VT so I can enjoy my boys ski wknd and just rain at home in Southern NH so I don't get calls from my wife saying she is trapped at home!


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## Jcb890 (Mar 9, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Of course, as Murphy's law would have it, I'm at Smuggs on Friday and Saturday and leaving on Sunday, which will be the best day.
> 
> I might have to do a 1/2 day ticket on Sunday and at least ski until noon, but under that scenario the GFS would probably turn a 6.5 hour drive into a 10 or 12 hour nightmare.  Sigh..



Stop at Killington on the way back on Sunday, we can catch a chair together.:beer:


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 9, 2015)

xwhaler said:


> Give me a big thump of snow for Central/Northern VT so I can enjoy my boys ski wknd and just rain at home in Southern NH so I don't get calls from my wife saying she is trapped at home!



Yeah, I probably should have pointed that out.  That while the models are all snow, the numbers I'm looking at are really dancing on a fault-line depending on the area.  It has to stay exactly as modeled or get even colder or there could be some parts of ski country to get mix or worse.








Jcb890 said:


> Stop at Killington on the way back on Sunday, we can catch a chair together.



The most rational thing I could do, is switch my plans from Friday/Saturday to Saturday/Sunday, but that relies on the gf being able to switch her day off.


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## catsup948 (Mar 9, 2015)

Yeah.  Canadian and GFS are pretty similar with who will get snow.  Euro with a rainer to snow up to Canada.  Euro has been lost this winter though.


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## catsup948 (Mar 9, 2015)

xwhaler said:


> Give me a big thump of snow for Central/Northern VT so I can enjoy my boys ski wknd and just rain at home in Southern NH so I don't get calls from my wife saying she is trapped at home!



Good thing your cell phone is going to a) end of in a snow drift or b) left swimming in a pint glass!


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2015)

Verizon dropped TWC.


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## Jcb890 (Mar 10, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Verizon dropped TWC.



Picture not working for me.  Is TWC what you use?  What sites are the best/most accurate usually?  Before this season, I didn't know about Weather Underground and Snow-Forecast which both seem pretty accurate and I like how far out Weather Underground does predictions also.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2015)

Jcb890 said:


> Is TWC what you use?



I loathe TWC.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2015)

Positive things are definitely afoot, at least for n.NE.   Second 1/2 of March into April increasingly looks like below normal temps, and the NAO will likely go negative.  Storms might return.


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## catsup948 (Mar 10, 2015)

TWC was once great back in the day!  Now it's hot weather girls and tv shows.  Eye candy makes people believe anything!


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## thetrailboss (Mar 10, 2015)

Not a fan of TWC. All about NWS/NOAA.


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## Jcb890 (Mar 10, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> I loathe TWC.



Agreed.  TWC sucks.


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## VTKilarney (Mar 10, 2015)

TWC was one of the few outlets to call the NYC non-blizzard correctly.   


.


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## deadheadskier (Mar 11, 2015)

If only we were so lucky. http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/10/europe/italy-possible-snow-record/index.html


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## twinplanx (Mar 11, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> TWC was once great back in the day!  Now it's hot weather girls and tv shows.  Eye candy makes people believe anything!


It's a complete joke. John Hope(rip) must be turning in his grave. :-(


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## mriceyman (Mar 11, 2015)

twinplanx said:


> It's a complete joke. John Hope(rip) must be turning in his grave. :-(



Im cousins with one of the "girls" that does in the field reporting. Shes good at what she does but shes not in a studio yet. Once she moves up in the world i can give her crap for being wrong lol


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## Rowsdower (Mar 11, 2015)

TWC actually has some decent semi-educational programming. 

Otherwise yeah, I agree. It's more about entertainment sadly.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2015)

12z GFS holds course for this weekend as mostly snow from roughly VT/MA border north, but the Canadian comes in much warmer than prior and would be mostly a rain event all the way to Canada.

If you have plans to ski anywhere in the Pocono chain or Cats on Saturday, change them.


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## Rowsdower (Mar 11, 2015)

Was fun while it lasted. Here's to hoping the snowpack lasts a while and we get some nice warm spring days to enjoy.


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## dlague (Mar 11, 2015)

Warmer temps had to come sooner or later - I just wanted them later!  Here is to hoping the snow pack holds on tight!  Pray for slow warming and limited r@!n!


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## Edd (Mar 11, 2015)

Cranmore had perfect conditions yesterday. High of 48 with decent sun. Not too hot. Snow didn't really bump up which my GF appreciated.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 15, 2015)

Potential good one coming Friday afternoon to Saturday morning.   The "where" and "how much" stuff is way too early, but the energy's on every model in some form,  so it looks promising.  Fingers crossed.


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## catsup948 (Mar 16, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Potential good one coming Friday afternoon to Saturday morning.   The "where" and "how much" stuff is way too early, but the energy's on every model in some form,  so it looks promising.  Fingers crossed.



Looks nice on the 00z Canadian.  It would be nice to get one last event outside of northern Vermont.


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## Jcb890 (Mar 16, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Potential good one coming Friday afternoon to Saturday morning.   The "where" and "how much" stuff is way too early, but the energy's on every model in some form,  so it looks promising.  Fingers crossed.



Weather Underground is saying perhaps some rain.  It seems like the temps might be too high for snow... at least what they are predicting right now.  I'm seeing 44* Friday and 40* Saturday with Sunday back down to 30*.

This is for Mt. Snow by the way.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 16, 2015)

It's increasing looking like.......something potentially really good is going to happen......somewhere in ski country. 

 Even the timing is uncertain, but looks probably Friday night into early Saturday.   I really like the fact that all the models have a storm, but that there's virtually no agreement other than that simply fact 4.5 days out.    Seems to me that when they're totally confused it sometimes means they're being overwhelmed.   Fingers crossed (toes too).


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## Jcb890 (Mar 16, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> It's increasing looking like.......something potentially really good is going to happen......somewhere in ski country.
> 
> Even the timing is uncertain, but looks probably Friday night into early Saturday.   I really like the fact that all the models have a storm, but that there's virtually no agreement other than that simply fact 4.5 days out.    Seems to me that when they're totally confused it sometimes means they're being overwhelmed.   Fingers crossed (toes too).



Let's hope!  Keep us updated on what you find.


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## Not Sure (Mar 16, 2015)

Heavy Sigh!!!!!

First Windsheild Bug Splat! This evening


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## catsup948 (Mar 16, 2015)

Nice event for Northern Vermont tomorrow into Wednesday.  3-6 with maybe more with some upslope, bolton up to Jay.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 17, 2015)

Starting to run out of time for the weekend.  

GFS suppresses the snow no further north than the PA/NJ and NY border. 

 Canuck would at least bring a few inches into southern and central Vermont.  

Euro (picture below) is best,  but it doesn't look like anything to write home about unless this jogs north quite a bit.  

Given the Pocono chain would pick up a good 7" - 8" on this run, I'm not giving up hope that this might come much further north, because as we all know, the Pocono Mountains must get screwed before any modeling solution is correct.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 17, 2015)

On the bright side, 

1) For Nowcasting purposes, a quick check of radar and Sugarbush & Smuggler's Notch webcams seems to confirm it's dumping pretty good at the moment.


2) The 14 day is below-average cold for out through March 31st.  Winter surviving until April is a guarantee this year.


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## St. Bear (Mar 17, 2015)

Snowfall does not equal snow accumulation.  Especially at this time of year in the Mid-Atlantic.


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## Jcb890 (Mar 17, 2015)

Will it stay cold enough for this event to stay all snow in Mid/Southern Vermont?

I'm seeing temps in the mid/high 30's on Friday and mid/low 40's on Saturday.


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## chuckstah (Mar 17, 2015)

It was dumping out at Bolton today. Only a few inches, including a bit of sleet, but it was one of my best days. It skied great. (Until wind hold at 1:30).


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## billski (Mar 17, 2015)

I'm hearing big winds through the day Wednesday.  I'm going for broke.  The Posse' leaves 02420 at 0545 hours Thursday.  Destination Jay.  Enough analyzing. Season's too short.


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## wa-loaf (Mar 17, 2015)

Bent a wheel on a pothole so taking the snows off on Friday. Expect a dump.


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## abc (Mar 17, 2015)

billski said:


> I'm hearing big winds through the day Wednesday.  I'm going for broke.  The Posse' leaves 02420 at 0545 hours Thursday.  Destination Jay.  Enough analyzing. Season's too short.


Well said!

I'm going for broke also. Taking Friday off. Going to Stowe on club appreciation day for the weekend, leaving flat land Thursday after work.


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## j law (Mar 18, 2015)

Any updates on the timing and location of the snow?

A new baby and a crazy job prevented me from getting out this year and I finally have the green light for a day trip this weekend and I'm trying to figure out the best place to go from NYC and whether Sat or Sun is my best bet.

I am always willing to drive to Vermont... But could it be the case that the Pocono's might get the most from this event?  

(Enter a Charlie Brown pic from BG here lining up a field goal)


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 18, 2015)

j law said:


> Any updates on the timing and location of the snow?



Here's the GFS prediction. Snowfall over by Saturday at 1am.  These snow maps now might be overdone as they don't take into account the fact some of this might not stick given warm ground.  That, and as a daytime storm it might have to fight the March sun angle.






Call it 3 or 4 inches I guess.


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## Jcb890 (Mar 18, 2015)

Most importantly - Any rain or all snow?


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## catsup948 (Mar 18, 2015)

GFS did come north more from 6z.  Almost tries to phase some of the northern energy into the southern stream.  It's getting pretty close to go time on this one though so major north shift is unlikely.  Poconos could do well and West Virginia.


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## j law (Mar 18, 2015)

Thanks BG!  Now the question is where to go and which day?

I'd drive as far as Killington (from NYC) if it seemed worth it.  

Anybody have thoughts on who will have the best combination of snow, weather and terrain open this weekend?  I'm usually a tree skiing powder hound... but given the realities of the forecast, I'd take soft bumps in the catskills.  Is there anywhere in the Pocono's worth hitting?  I haven't been to Camleback since I was 8 years old and thought it was kind of boring back then!

Any thoughts?


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 18, 2015)

Long-range 12z GFS shows some potential shots on goal with the models detecting some energy.   Late March/early April could produce.   GFS and Canuck both have their own versions of a relatively big storm in that timeframe, GFS' is all snow, Canuck's is a super-soaker.


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## 〽❄❅ (Mar 18, 2015)

j law said:


> Thanks BG!  Now the question is where to go and which day?
> 
> Is there anywhere in the Pocono's worth hitting?  I haven't been to Camleback since I was 8 years old and thought it was kind of boring back then!
> 
> Any thoughts?


Friday is the day to hit it. 

I'm not a fan of Camelback either but 31ºF high 100% chance of 3"-5", i may have to go. Same for Blue only with a high of 34ºF it doesn't seem like the best pick. NBC10's Glenn Hurricane just predicted 3"-6" in and around the LV. 
Will likely decide very early Friday morning. 

I much prefer ELK MT but they are only calling for 90% chance of 1"-3", pretty much the same for Hunter.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 18, 2015)

Wagons have been north so even if a partial phase occurs, the Pokes could cash in pretty well.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 18, 2015)

I'll be in n.VT, but for those going to the Pocono Mountains, here's some mappage....


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## Rowsdower (Mar 19, 2015)

GFS came north a bit. Catskills might see more than initially predicted.


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## j law (Mar 19, 2015)

I hope you're right... I'm thinking of trying Platekill based on comments from others in this forum that I've seen over the years.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 19, 2015)

j law said:


> I hope you're right... I'm thinking of trying Platekill based on comments from others in this forum that I've seen over the years.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZonemmmmmm



If u go Sunday bring season pass from any mountain I hear for it freeor stop at potter brothers in Kingston or other store in Hudson valley for flex ticket.


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## Abominable (Mar 19, 2015)

Saturday at Plattekill - BEACH PARTY Saturday, March 21 with live music, leis, beachballs, sunglasses, cocktail parasols and FUN!!!  Plus this Saturday join us for our first annual SPRING INVITATIONAL GS RACE at 11am. - See more at: http://plattekill.com/about-plattekill/trail-report#sthash.XRQqTiul.dpuf

45 bucks per in advance.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 19, 2015)

Afternoon model runs and colder and wetter.  Good news for the Pocono areas.


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## Jcb890 (Mar 19, 2015)

BG - How about Southern VT?


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## j law (Mar 19, 2015)

Jcb890 said:


> BG - How about Southern VT?



I'm wondering that too.  I have no problem driving to Gore, Mt. Snow or Magic for a day trip based on terrain and weather... but wondering if I should actually hit Pocono's.

Anyone have thoughts on the best tree skiing / best terrain in Eastern PA?  I haven't skied there since I was 10 thirty years ago!


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## 〽❄❅ (Mar 19, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> GFS came north a bit. Catskills might see more than initially predicted.


Would hope that includes ELK MT too? Hunter is a 3.5h drive in good traffic but I would go there if they were going to get what is in the forecast for Blue and CB. Looking like Blue MT is gonna get the motherload, NOAA 100% 3"-7", TWC 100% 3"-5", was predicting up to 8" earlier, WeatherBug 90% 4"-6", Weather Underground 3"-5". Camelback similar, Elk in the 1"-3" range. I'll probably go to Blue this time...


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## 〽❄❅ (Mar 19, 2015)

j law said:


> I'm wondering that too.  I have no problem driving to Gore, Mt. Snow or Magic for a day trip based on terrain and weather... but wondering if I should actually hit Pocono's.
> 
> Anyone have thoughts on the best tree skiing / best terrain in Eastern PA?  I haven't skied there since I was 10 thirty years ago!


Are we talking the weekend or tomorrow? If the weekend, given your options I'd go to Gore or Magic. Blue has some designated low angle Gladed areas only they're rather short sections. I hear Jack Frost allows tree skiing wherever you'd like to go, however i only skied there once over thirty years ago and could have just as well skied anywhere on the hill with my floppy boot light duty BC-NNN cross-country ski gear. Know idea whats what at Camelback, haven't been there in years either. I think that about does it for Eastern PA Poc's.


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## j law (Mar 19, 2015)

I'm looking at Saturday, thanks for the feedback!


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 19, 2015)

Jcb890 said:


> BG - How about Southern VT?



They likely wont get more than an inch or two out of this, if that.  Would have to hope for one of those non-forecasted surprises.   I'm heading to Vermont this weekend again too, Sugarbush tomorrow, and then......... I dont know, probably Jay Peak on Saturday.  Saturday midday to evening the models all have a few inches for much of Vermont, wont help me though as Sunday is my travel day back.

Here's the US versus Canadian snowfall predictions through midday Sunday.  Keep in mind the models do NOT take into account sun angle, and it's mid-March, which is why I think some of this might be overdone given this is supposed to fall during the day.  A delayed start versus as modeled would be good.

NOTE:  Canadian model screws over the Pocono Mountains, so it's likely correct.


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## Jcb890 (Mar 20, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> They likely wont get more than an inch or two out of this, if that.  Would have to hope for one of those non-forecasted surprises.   I'm heading to Vermont this weekend again too, Sugarbush tomorrow, and then......... I dont know, probably Jay Peak on Saturday.  Saturday midday to evening the models all have a few inches for much of Vermont, wont help me though as Sunday is my travel day back.
> 
> Here's the US versus Canadian snowfall predictions through midday Sunday.  Keep in mind the models do NOT take into account sun angle, and it's mid-March, which is why I think some of this might be overdone given this is supposed to fall during the day.  A delayed start versus as modeled would be good.
> 
> NOTE:  Canadian model screws over the Pocono Mountains, so it's likely correct.



Just as long as there's not rain mixed into Southern VT, I'm fine with whatever falls.


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## j law (Mar 20, 2015)

Jcb890 said:


> Just as long as there's not rain mixed into Southern VT, I'm fine with whatever falls.



Any idea how conditions are in southern Vt?  Soft versus icy?


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## Jcb890 (Mar 20, 2015)

j law said:


> Any idea how conditions are in southern Vt?  Soft versus icy?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZonemmmmmm&#55357;&#56612;&#55357;&#56612;&#55357;&#56612;&#55357;&#56612;&#55357;&#56612;



No clue.  I'll be heading up there tonight and boarding Saturday and Sunday.  We were up at Killington this past weekend and it was horrendous, but that was last weekend.


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## jrmagic (Mar 20, 2015)

Even if we dont get any snow in SVT I imagine Saturday will be reasonably soft on the ungroomed come afternoon as it will be above freezing. Without snow Sunday will be firm


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## j law (Mar 20, 2015)

Yeah, I'm thinking that a warm day at mt snow is better than a couple of skied out inches in the Pocono's.

Anybody been in the trees in southern VT lately?  How is the coverage?


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## jrmagic (Mar 20, 2015)

Coverage should not an issue anywhere in SVT trees. The only question is if they will be skiable... at least skiable in the sense that it's fun.


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## j law (Mar 20, 2015)

jrmagic said:


> Coverage should not an issue anywhere in SVT trees. The only question is if they will be skiable... at least skiable in the sense that it's fun.



I think you just sealed it for me.  Terrain in SVT is better than snow in Pocono's 


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## chuckstah (Mar 20, 2015)

I just got off the hill at Mt Snow. Everything very firm Nd fast, icy and slide off in the afternoon. Glades were edgable but not fun for me anyways. Same with the limited bumps around. If they pick up a couple inches tonight, and it warms up as expected the afternoon tomorrow should be much improved.


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## Abominable (Mar 20, 2015)

Snowing at a good clip north of nyc (westchester) Heard hunter was fun today. 



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## BenedictGomez (Mar 20, 2015)

Sugarbush was firm today but groomed trails skied well. Natural trails like Castlerock were hard and a bit icy.  Trees could be skied but were crusty and not great.  Hopefully JP will be better tomorrow.


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## JDMRoma (Mar 20, 2015)

Skies BrettonWoods today, groomers were great ... Firm and fast. Glades had some ice down the centers but sides were soft and very edge able !
Not a bad trail all day, stayed almost till closing. Temps didn't get much over 30 all day, tomorrow should be great in northern NH !!


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## j law (Mar 20, 2015)

chuckstah said:


> I just got off the hill at Mt Snow. Everything very firm Nd fast, icy and slide off in the afternoon. .



Did it get above freezing at mt snow today?  It's definitely cold there tonight so I'm wondering if the morning will be firm or if the snow they do get will be dust on crust.  

Any thoughts?



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## chuckstah (Mar 20, 2015)

I don't think it got out of the high 20's. Felt cold all day, but never saw the actual temp. Groomers will ski good early I would think, and everything in the afternoon if it warms up enough. Most mogul runs were roped and it was the right call.


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## St. Bear (Mar 20, 2015)

MRG was firm on the trails and mostly packed powder with some powder if you ventured far enough) in the woods.


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## Not Sure (Mar 20, 2015)

A little more than 6" ,Took my 8yr old to Bear creek for some night skiing , was a night of suprises, was suprised when we got there , freezing drizzle, fogggy, turned into a mist than fine snow. It was much faster than I expected.
Managed to get a bunch of untracked lines on the sides. 
The lifties were very profesional, holding chairs back , slowed lift a couple of times for the little guy, never missed a beat.
Very polite. 
Pocono's will be great tomorrow


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 20, 2015)

St. Bear said:


> MRG was firm on the trails and mostly packed powder with some powder if you ventured far enough) in the woods.



Did you see Johnny Mosely?


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## St. Bear (Mar 21, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Did you see Johnny Mosely?



No. I met up with some people from Epic, and one of them said they thought they saw him.

I guess the ski off will have to wait for another day.


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## catsup948 (Mar 21, 2015)

http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/canada/prince-edward-island/p-e-i-snowfall-breaks-record-1.2997067
Another huge blizzard up there tomorrow! Not much for hills up there as I can remember.


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## St. Bear (Mar 21, 2015)

How warm did Northern VT get today? Wondering how firm things are going to be tomorrow when the freezer doors open.


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## fcksummer (Mar 21, 2015)

St. Bear said:


> How warm did Northern VT get today? Wondering how firm things are going to be tomorrow when the freezer doors open.



I was wondering the same thing. Also looks like a decent amount of wind. I was thinking about stowe...anyone know how they fair with wind...this would be my first time there


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 21, 2015)

St. Bear said:


> How warm did Northern VT get today? Wondering how firm things are going to be tomorrow when the freezer doors open.



It snowed all day at Jay today, nothing big, maybe 2".


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## ScottySkis (Mar 22, 2015)

I hear winter like this past one probably be normal for next 20-30 years.


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 22, 2015)

ScottySkis said:


> I hear winter like this past one probably be normal for next 20-30 years.



It's impossible to accurately predict, but it appears solar cycle 24 is wrapping up as the weakest in over a century, similar to before the Dalton Minimum from 1790 - 1830. If that happens this past winter will most likely seem relatively mild in comparison to the next few decades.

Not saying that *will* happen, but it doesn't seem like a long shot either. Since you said "20-30 years" I figured this is what you heard.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalton_Minimum


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## billski (Mar 22, 2015)

ScottySkis said:


> I hear winter like this past one probably be normal for next 20-30 years.


  It might have been the controlled substances talking to you Scotty, but I'll take that news any day/year/decade!


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## Not Sure (Mar 22, 2015)

billski said:


> It might have been the controlled substances talking to you Scotty, but I'll take that news any day/year/decade!



LOL , I love this forum ! Start the day with a chuckle.
I'll take another one like this - the glazing part. Already planning some bike hike pruning local BC


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## Jcb890 (Mar 23, 2015)

Conditions were GREAT at Mount Snow this weekend for the most part.

Saturday got quite warm.  The heat and sun made the snow really soft and easy all day.  Any chop that started to build early was smoothed over.  The North Face was open and riding well even at the end of the day.

Sunday was very cold and very windy.  At least the sun stayed out though, that probably helped a little.  The North Face was closed all day due to wind.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 23, 2015)

Increasingly looks like we're not going to escape significant rain this week, followed by cold temps. Yay.

On the bright side, the Canadian would follow that rain with some good snowfall for the farthest north terrain, which should "repair" the damage.  South of n.VT or ADK look pretty screwed at this point though.  

You'll find me at Jay Peak again this Saturday if this scenario plays out.  If the GFS scenario plays out, you'll find me..... doing something else.


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## SnowRock (Mar 23, 2015)

Pre-planned trip to stowe this weekend. Do I kill myself trying to get up to ride thursday or just wake up at a normal human time  and make what i can of Friday and the weekend.


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## hammer (Mar 23, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Increasingly looks like we're not going to escape significant rain this week, followed by cold temps. Yay.
> 
> On the bright side, the Canadian would follow that rain with some good snowfall for the farthest north terrain, which should "repair" the damage.  South of n.VT or ADK look pretty screwed at this point though.
> 
> You'll find me at Jay Peak again this Saturday if this scenario plays out.  If the GFS scenario plays out, you'll find me..... doing something else.



So will this kill off any places in southern NH or VT for Easter weekend?  What day trip alternatives from the Boston area will there be?


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## xwhaler (Mar 23, 2015)

hammer said:


> So will this kill off any places in southern NH or VT for Easter weekend?  What day trip alternatives from the Boston area will there be?



If we consider day trip to be 2 hrs or less each way (from Boston) I'd say you will have Loon, Ragged, WV, Cannon, Gunstock, Sunapee at the very least for NH offering lift serviced skiing Easter wknd.
I'm looking at Cannon on 4/4 myself


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## hammer (Mar 23, 2015)

xwhaler said:


> If we consider day trip to be 2 hrs or less each way (from Boston) I'd say you will have Loon, Ragged, WV, Cannon, Gunstock, Sunapee at the very least for NH offering lift serviced skiing Easter wknd.
> I'm looking at Cannon on 4/4 myself


Sounds like a good selection, just want it to be a bit warmer to soften things up a bit...


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## xwhaler (Mar 23, 2015)

hammer said:


> Sounds like a good selection, just want it to be a bit warmer to soften things up a bit...


We all do! It felt like Early January yesterday at Pats Peak skiing on frozen corduroy with the wind whipping making it feel about zero.
As for VT you have a bunch of options for Easter wknd

http://vtskiandride.com/2015/03/11/closing-dates-for-vermont-resorts-announced/


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 24, 2015)

Lots of unsettled and precipitous weather on the models over the next 10 days, unfortunately it mostly looks like rain.  

The good news (hopefully) is in most cases it's not raining because it's 45 degrees, but because it's 35 degrees, so hopefully the temps can come down just a bit and turn to snow on some of the future model runs.


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## St. Bear (Mar 24, 2015)

My ADK trip this weekend is looking to be more ice skating than skiing.


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## SnowRock (Mar 24, 2015)

St. Bear said:


> My ADK trip this weekend is looking to be more ice skating than skiing.



For my Stowe trip... Ive gone from contemplating leaving from the office Wednesday/cheap hotel before house rental kicks in to get in all day thursday, to leaving at 4 am from NJ to get in some time thursday, to working from home until 1 thursday and just hitting up pro pig upon arrival to the area.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 24, 2015)

18z GFS came in a bit colder for both of the near-term rain/mix/snow events.  Hopefully this is a trend and not a 1-run aberration.

Also develops some big snow in the out dates, but that's fantasy stuff at this point.


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## JonD (Mar 25, 2015)

Tim Kelley is making things interesting for this weekend. 







https://twitter.com/surfskiwxman/status/580527743093358592


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## St. Bear (Mar 25, 2015)

He's been very aggressive this year, and he's been right where a lot of mets have undershot their forecasts.  Let's hope that's the case again.


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## Puck it (Mar 25, 2015)

JonD said:


> Tim Kelley is making things interesting for this weekend.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



is this real?


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## JDMRoma (Mar 25, 2015)

God I hope so ! Skiing Saturday !


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## xwhaler (Mar 25, 2015)

JDMRoma said:


> God I hope so ! Skiing Saturday !
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


Cannon or BWoods?


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## JDMRoma (Mar 25, 2015)

Flip a coin ! Either one


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## Puck it (Mar 25, 2015)

JDMRoma said:


> God I hope so ! Skiing Saturday !
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


  I can do Saturday I think.


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## Puck it (Mar 25, 2015)

xwhaler said:


> Cannon or BWoods?



Not Saturday at Cannon.  Dew challenge is Saturday


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## JDMRoma (Mar 25, 2015)

If that forecast is real Saturday is it !
I'd do Cannon !


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## JDMRoma (Mar 25, 2015)

Burke or K


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## catsup948 (Mar 25, 2015)

This has some nice potential for northern ski country.  Its just ugly looking around here.  Dirt, grass, snow, puddles, mud, refrozen mud, ice, yuck!


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 25, 2015)

Puck it said:


> *is this real?*



It's ballsy-aggressive, but it's possible.

This is where I was commenting there's good potential IF the models come in colder.  He must either believe that happens OR he sees something atmospherically that suggests better dynamics than the models are picking up on (better timing, colder, lingering, etc..).  

Frankly, if you just look at the models, Monday/Tuesday looks better for snow than Friday/Saturday.    

Here's the GFS output through mid-day Tuesday, verbatim to the model most of this is on Monday.







The pattern is energetic and wet, this is the reason I booked a week in northern Vermont for this timeframe, the writing has been on the wall for several weeks now that later March / early April have really special potential.  Crossing fingers and toes it pans out.  Currenly have Smuggs, Jay, Stowe, and MRG on the itinerary!


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## xwhaler (Mar 25, 2015)

Puck it said:


> I can do Saturday I think.


Where are you guys going Sat if this pans out? I could possibly join you


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## Puck it (Mar 25, 2015)

xwhaler said:


> Where are you guys going Sat if this pans out? I could possibly join you



I doubt Cannon.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 25, 2015)

I'll tell you one thing, if northern Vermont squeezes out anything even remotely close to 12" from this first "cointoss precipitation" event Thurs/Friday, I am going to be happier than a pig in slop with a giant food-source within reach.


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## catsup948 (Mar 25, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> It's ballsy-aggressive, but it's possible.
> 
> This is where I was commenting there's good potential IF the models come in colder.  He must either believe that happens OR he sees something atmospherically that suggests better dynamics than the models are picking up on (better timing, colder, lingering, etc..).
> 
> ...



I agree with you.  It has potential to snow a lot Friday but it's such a thin line.  Monday looks pretty good too.


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## Jcb890 (Mar 25, 2015)

Even as far up as Jay Peak, highs for Thursday are are like 45*.  How is it possibly going to be all snow with temps near 50?


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## fbrissette (Mar 25, 2015)

Jcb890 said:


> Even as far up as Jay Peak, highs for Thursday are are like 45*.  How is it possibly going to be all snow with temps near 50?


 Gotta be careful where you get your forecasts. Many forecasts are closest-city and do not take into account specific mountain elevations.

This one for example has Jay Peak base mostly below freezing except for a brief stint early Thursday.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Jay-Peak/6day/mid


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## chuckstah (Mar 25, 2015)

Light sleet just started in S New Hampshire.  Temp is still around 40.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 26, 2015)

Still liking the long-term in terms of the next week.  Fingers crossed.  Hopefully places like Smuggs and Jay Peak can pick up something like 5" to 7" from this.  Then there are several other shots on goal during the next week.


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## j law (Mar 26, 2015)

I wonder if I could get a "pass" from the wife next saturday if the snow holds like you're saying...


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## catsup948 (Mar 26, 2015)

Bright sunshine here! Berkshire East closed today.


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 26, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Bright sunshine here! Berkshire East closed today.



Really? Overcast in Williamsburg. Did we manage to dodge a rain event?


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## VTKilarney (Mar 26, 2015)

Raining here in northeastern Vermont, but not hard at all.


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## VTKilarney (Mar 26, 2015)

Rain is now steady and of medium intensity.


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## catsup948 (Mar 26, 2015)

bdfreetuna said:


> Really? Overcast in Williamsburg. Did we manage to dodge a rain event?



Nope.  Raining now!  NWS has us flipping to a little snow overnight. Less than .5 inch though.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 26, 2015)

Lets see what we can collectively glean from today:

Tim Kelley noted the r/s line was at approximately 2,500 feet today at Stowe, and a few inches of new snow at top, but that it rained hard at the base enough to cost snow.

Smuggs makes no mention of rain, though it must have given the close proximity to Stowe, and claims 2" of new snow today.  I do see they actually opened a few trails that had been previously closed.

Jay Peak mentioned it rained briefly, but that they've picked up a few inches as well.

A quick look at the radar shows temps dropping, and if it's not snowing up & down the spine, it will be soon.


All-in-all, I'd say this was about as good as we could have hoped for.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 26, 2015)

18z GFS coming in with more snow on the spine tonight that previously modeled, pointing to 4" to 6".

This is just 7pm tonight to 7pm tomorrow on the GFS.







NAM s similar but sees a bit less, 3" to 4"


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## Jcb890 (Mar 26, 2015)

Is S. VT going to get some decent snowfall out of this?  Looks like a possibility!


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## VTKilarney (Mar 27, 2015)

No new snow here in town.  This storm is definitely an elevation play.


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## catsup948 (Mar 27, 2015)

Mixed reports this am from Killington north.  Killington reporting nada, Jay 2-4 and sugarbush 6 inches at the summit.


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## xwhaler (Mar 27, 2015)

Bolton reporting 5", Smuggs 2", MRG 4"
Saddleback 3"
Cannon 6"


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 27, 2015)

Overnight snow didn't pan out as much as it had looked, but the good news is that neither did yesterday's rain. 

 All-in-all that's a win.


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## VTKilarney (Mar 27, 2015)

Burke is reporting 3 inches.  That must be at the summit.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 28, 2015)

When will spring conditions might happen for Adks and or Catskills maybe next weekend in April?


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## steamboat1 (Mar 28, 2015)

Sounds like maybe a couple few inches Monday/Monday night in VT.


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## Cannonball (Mar 28, 2015)

Interesting re-reading this thread starting back around 3/24. Good perspective on how much our assumptions change over the course of just a few days. Proving once again that the only way you're guaranteed to miss a good day is by not going at all.


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## steamboat1 (Mar 28, 2015)

Cannonball said:


> Proving once again that the only way you're guaranteed to miss a good day is by not going at all.


Ain't that the truth.


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## catsup948 (Mar 30, 2015)

Friday night something to watch.  GFS likes snow out here up into southern Vermont.  Its nothing crazy but could be a few inches if it falls mainly overnight.


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## catsup948 (Mar 30, 2015)

Canadian has rain later this week.  GFS colder more south, to me it has been doing this 5 days out since February and then caves to a warmer solution within 36 hrs.


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## catsup948 (Mar 31, 2015)

Canadian and GFS look very interesting for the NNE mountains next week!  Snow! Rain! Snow! SNOW!  Something to keep an eye on at least.


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## jrmagic (Mar 31, 2015)

Cannonball said:


> Interesting re-reading this thread starting back around 3/24. Good perspective on how much our assumptions change over the course of just a few days. Proving once again that the only way you're guaranteed to miss a good day is by not going at all.



That's why I usually just go and take what the mountain will give. Usually there aren't many let downs as I go in thinking conservatively so conditions are usually right about what I expect or better. This past weekend I was very pleasantly surprised on Saturday and Sunday.


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## JDMRoma (Mar 31, 2015)

go with low expectations and be pleasantly surprised ! this past weekend was just that !

Go !


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 31, 2015)

jrmagic said:


> This past weekend I was very pleasantly surprised on Saturday and Sunday.



Both days were great, and Stowe today after 4" and with blue skies was awesome.


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