# 27th-28th Storm Potential



## from_the_NEK (Dec 15, 2010)

GFS is predicting something but it looks to develop too far north and warm :-x

On the other hand the GFS is looking slightly better for the 20th.


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## drjeff (Dec 15, 2010)

from_the_NEK said:


> GFS is predicting something but it looks to develop too far north and warm :-x
> 
> On the other hand the GFS is looking slightly better for the 20th.



The 240+ hour GFS has a notroius history of making things look like the "storm of the millenium" and then have it amount to absolutely nothing.  Got to remember that the elements of energy that are being modeled that far out basically have to go around the globe before they *could* come into play for us.  If the GFS at the 120 hour run still has something, then it's time to pay some attention to things.


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 16, 2010)

drjeff said:


> The 240+ hour GFS has a notroius history of making things look like the "storm of the millenium" and then have it amount to absolutely nothing.  Got to remember that the elements of energy that are being modeled that far out basically have to go around the globe before they *could* come into play for us.  If the GFS at the 120 hour run still has something, then it's time to pay some attention to things.



Yep, it's already gone  Maybe now we will get a classic Nor-Easter instead.


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## billski (Dec 16, 2010)

thursday night, NWS BOS:
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS APPEARING MORE
PROBABLE WITH A GROWING CONSENSUS OF MODELSMusic to my ears..

IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS FROM THE EVENT SO THE DETAILS WILL NEED TO
BE IRONED OUT.

Tell that to the weathertainment industry.  They've already put a run on the milk and bread...

BTV says:
HAVE PLACED LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. COULD
BE A PROLONGED PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

Burkie Baby...

Looks like a mandatory automobile ski and petrol load will be necessary on Sunday. 
All points alert for early Monday...  Navigation meeting Sunday night.  Storm warning preparations 
are urged: Fritos, twizzlers, overnight gear, camera and tunes.   Christmas may be canceled due to inclement weather.

Need to cross check with snowforecast and internet rock stars


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## snoseek (Dec 16, 2010)

Sun/Mon off!!!!! Bring it!!!!!


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## billski (Dec 17, 2010)

this morning, the Wino continues to stumble along:

*** A WINTER STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS ***

UNFORTUNATELY THE 00Z MODELS HAVE FLIPPED-FLOP FROM THEIR 12Z CYCLE

THEREFORE WE DECIDED TO CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST VERY LITTLE AND
JUST BLEND IN A BIT OF THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND WIND WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND POSSIBLY INTO RI. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL
FLUCTUATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO LOCK INTO ONE GIVEN
SOLUTION AND ELABORATE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
PATIENT AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO
DISPLAY RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.'  
Source: boston forecast office nws

The Burlington VT office agrees with the above.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT TWD CHRISTMAS THE LATEST ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
WE HAVE ANOTHER VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

Portland says:
COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND... A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...JUST HOW FAR
OFFSHORE IT TRACKS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
GETS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR ONLY GETS BRUSHED WITH A FEW FLAKES


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## billski (Dec 17, 2010)

crap-u




How many inches is "disruptive"???this looks like a commuter forecast...
I have too much off-slope time on my day off...

"The period of concern for New England is from Sunday night into Monday  for what could turn out to be a full-blown nor'easter with the  possibility of a foot of snow."


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## hammer (Dec 17, 2010)

billski said:


> crap-u
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Wow...I didn't know that the forecasts could be that precise 10 days out...;-)


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## UVSHTSTRM (Dec 17, 2010)

So why is the topic for this thread about the 27th and 28th?  And why are people discussing this weekend within this thread?


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## billski (Dec 17, 2010)

UVSHTSTRM said:


> So why is the topic for this thread about the 27th and 28th?  And why are people discussing this weekend within this thread?


because somebody named billski is posting in the wrong thread.  We need a 19th20th thread.


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## St. Bear (Dec 17, 2010)

hammer said:


> Wow...I didn't know that the forecasts could be that precise 10 days out...;-)



This forecast is for this weekend, not next.  So it's 3 days out.


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## drjeff (Dec 17, 2010)

billski said:


> because somebody named billski is posting in the wrong thread.  We need a 19th20th thread.



That would be this thread below  

http://forums.alpinezone.com/showthread.php?t=87505&page=7


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## Greg (Dec 17, 2010)

UVSHTSTRM said:


> So why is the topic for this thread about the 27th and 28th?  And why are people discussing this weekend within this thread?



No effin clue.



billski said:


> because somebody named billski is posting in the wrong thread.  We need a 19th20th thread.



We already had one. Renamed:

http://forums.alpinezone.com/showthread.php?t=87505


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## hammer (Dec 17, 2010)

St. Bear said:


> This forecast is for this weekend, not next.  So it's 3 days out.


I already knew that...hence the ;-);-);-)


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 17, 2010)

The storm now looking to be on the 28/29th might actually be turning into something promising . Still 11 days out, so who knows what is going to happen.


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## billski (Dec 24, 2010)

NWS just stuck their neck out for 26-27 and is calling it a coastal event.  Too early to know for certain.


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## KingM (Dec 24, 2010)

from_the_NEK said:


> The storm now looking to be on the 28/29th might actually be turning into something promising . Still 11 days out, so who knows what is going to happen.



Every storm 11 days out this year looks great, while every storm 24 hours out is either out to sea or far to the south. A lot like last year, in fact.


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## billski (Dec 24, 2010)

KingM said:


> Every storm 11 days out this year looks great, while every storm 24 hours out is either out to sea or far to the south. A lot like last year, in fact.


Well, it gives us something to talk about!


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## polski (Dec 24, 2010)

yep, looking like another Yawgoo Mauler, at best.

I've got a couple free passes to Blue Hills (which would be a new area for me) and was pleased recently to see that a certain earned-turns spot near me had been mowed pretty extensively so I'm hoping we at least get a reasonable accumulation near the coast, if not up north. 

Though this from NWS Taunton's new forecast discussion is potentially intriguing ...

SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM
AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/.  WE
HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS
WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE
BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM
HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS
MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE
THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO
THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO
WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR
CHANGES.


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## KingM (Dec 24, 2010)

polski said:


> yep, looking like another Yawgoo Mauler, at best.



LOL.

I'm pretty sure I've seen you or someone else use that phrase before, but still...


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## billski (Dec 25, 2010)

Christmas morning:  12" for metro Boston.

Looks more like a Boston Hills Blaster today!





Merry Christmas everyone!  Can't wait to see the city at a standstill in sheer weathertainment panic.


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## soulseller (Dec 25, 2010)

billski said:


> Christmas morning:  12" for metro Boston.


I'll take 10" at Wawa any day.


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## kingslug (Dec 25, 2010)

NOAA says possible 7 plus inches for the cats....I'll take it.


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## andrec10 (Dec 25, 2010)

kingslug said:


> NOAA says possible 7 plus inches for the cats....I'll take it.



Mini Pow Pow day at Hunter on Monday! I'll take it!!!


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## kingslug (Dec 25, 2010)

andrec10 said:


> Mini Pow Pow day at Hunter on Monday! I'll take it!!!



You going??


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## WinnChill (Dec 25, 2010)

Hey folks,

I've been glancing at the models through the day in between presents, family and food and it looks like we're on for a storm Sunday night!  The storm track looks GREAT for New England pow!  We are definately planning to up our previously forecasted totals in the morning!  This will set us up perfectly for the rest of the vacation week!  Enjoy!


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## polski (Dec 25, 2010)

KingM said:


> LOL.
> 
> I'm pretty sure I've seen you or someone else use that phrase before, but still...



Yeah, I'm not above recycling my material ;-)

Now my idea of a Christmas present is a widespread BLIZZARD WARNING. Ohboyohboyohboyohboyohboy ...


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## deadheadskier (Dec 25, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Hey folks,
> 
> I've been glancing at the models through the day in between presents, family and food and it looks like we're on for a storm Sunday night!  The storm track looks GREAT for New England pow!  We are definately planning to up our previously forecasted totals in the morning!  This will set us up perfectly for the rest of the vacation week!  Enjoy!



what's your best guestimate for Ragged?


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## WinnChill (Dec 25, 2010)

Brief look at precip fields, southern NH (and most of the area) looks to be under heavy snow for about 12 hours...a solid foot easy and most likely more.  Ragged is a north facing slope with mainly E-NE winds so upslope may not benefit them as much blowing across the slopes rather than straight into them--still should make out very well.  

I'll be able fine tune resort accumulations in the AM and then watch the fun unfold.


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## billski (Dec 25, 2010)

Outstanding!  Just what Magic needs!  Perfect with Magic having NE orientation!!!! Oh, for a magic powder day.  Too bad I'll be traveling until Thursday!


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## soulseller (Dec 25, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Brief look at precip fields, southern NH (and most of the area) looks to be under heavy snow for about 12 hours...a solid foot easy and most likely more.  Ragged is a north facing slope with mainly E-NE winds so upslope may not benefit them as much blowing across the slopes rather than straight into them--still should make out very well.
> 
> I'll be able fine tune resort accumulations in the AM and then watch the fun unfold.



Hmmm,12 hours of heavy snowfall starting Sunday night.  I wonder if that will be enough to close my office Monday in Providence.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 25, 2010)

deadheadskier said:


> what's your best guestimate for Ragged?





WinnChill said:


> Brief look at precip fields, southern NH (and most of the area) looks to be under heavy snow for about 12 hours...a solid foot easy and most likely more.  Ragged is a north facing slope with mainly E-NE winds so upslope may not benefit them as much blowing across the slopes rather than straight into them--still should make out very well.
> 
> I'll be able fine tune resort accumulations in the AM and then watch the fun unfold.



Think that will be enough to open the woods? I'm probably going to shoot for Cannon on Monday. Could be persuaded into Magic, maybe Ragged. Depends on who will have the best glades. It's sounded like Cannon has been doing pretty well so far.


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## riverc0il (Dec 25, 2010)

wa-loaf said:


> Think that will be enough to open the woods? I'm probably going to shoot for Cannon on Monday. Could be persuaded into Magic, maybe Ragged. Depends on who will have the best glades. It's sounded like Cannon has been doing pretty well so far.


I was at Cannon Saturday and another foot should put many glades in play. I didn't want to risk going in them this past weekend (that should tell you something!). Was still hitting rocks and crap on natural trails. The only question for Cannon is what the winds do to the lifts on Monday. Cannon and Bretton probably are the only two options for trees in NH even with this storm.

Points south will need a lot more snow to open glades. The ground is still bare in central NH (though Ragged probably has seen more snowfall than here in the low lands). NoVT already has open gladed terrain so even though they won't get the jackpot, that is still the best location for the most glades. I can not imagine Magic's trees will be even close to online with this storm since they don't have any base in there yet.


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## deadheadskier (Dec 25, 2010)

I will be at Ragged tomorrow.  I'm guessing you have more 'base' in your yard in Mass than Ragged has in the woods currently.  Unless it's a solid 18 inches, one thing I can say with almost certainty is half the glades will be ruled out as Spear won't be open.  Maybe, maybe they'd open up the lift and Cardigan Turnpike with 12 inches.  Showboat and Flying Yankee both have a large ravine going through them that requires probably 6 feet of man made base to cover and open up.

I think Cannon would be the better bet unless Ragged gets significantly more snow and does open the glades from the main summit.  Magic obviously is very intriguing depending on how the storm ends up.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 25, 2010)

Sounds like Cannon it is. Vermont is too far since I will be striking out for a day trip in the middle of the storm ...


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## deadheadskier (Dec 25, 2010)

isn't Magic and Cannon pretty much equidistant from Northborough?  I was just home in Westboro today visiting family for the holiday. As a kid we'd make the trip to Okemo from there every weekend in about 2.5 hours.  I'd imagine Magic would be the same and would think Cannon would to.  Though Cannon is all highway which might have better driving conditions.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 25, 2010)

deadheadskier said:


> isn't Magic and Cannon pretty much equidistant from Northborough?  I was just home in Westboro today visiting family for the holiday. As a kid we'd make the trip to Okemo from there every weekend in about 2.5 hours.  I'd imagine Magic would be the same and would think Cannon would to.  Though Cannon is all highway which might have better driving conditions.



Drive time should be about the same, but I'm thinking Cannon has the better base.


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## jrmagic (Dec 25, 2010)

billski said:


> Outstanding!  Just what Magic needs!  Perfect with Magic having NE orientation!!!! Oh, for a magic powder day.  Too bad I'll be traveling until Thursday!



Bill that is exactly what I was thinking reading Winn Chill's post. I'm packing now and heading up to Magic with the kids early tomorrow morning for the week. I hope it dumps on us


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## SKIQUATTRO (Dec 25, 2010)

hope everyone scores big snows, even here on LI is looking to get hit good...only issue i see is the winds..that gradient is really tight...lift holds i see monday....


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## billski (Dec 26, 2010)

jrmagic said:


> Bill that is exactly what I was thinking reading Winn Chill's post. I'm packing now and heading up to Magic with the kids early tomorrow morning for the week. I hope it dumps on us



You could have an interesting drive.  We've postponed our travel through the Berks until Tuesday morning not due to the snow, but due to the winds - I've experienced enough whiteouts in my life such that I don't want to drive through it with my family.  Me, by myself, that's different.

Oh, I hope you have a great time.

We've got about a new inch on the ground right now and this isn't even the real storm.  Think I'll go out and do some donuts...


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## WinnChill (Dec 26, 2010)

soulseller said:


> Hmmm,12 hours of heavy snowfall starting Sunday night.  I wonder if that will be enough to close my office Monday in Providence.



You're coming down with a cold, right? :wink:


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## billski (Dec 26, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> You're coming down with a cold, right? :wink:


  this group generally starts looking pretty sickly at about this point.  I suggest you get to the store, get some decongestants, tissues, tylenol and a full tank of gas 



Winn, have you been out yet??  You owe it to yourself!


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## wa-loaf (Dec 26, 2010)

cough, cough, oh wait I'm on vacation I feel great!


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## WinnChill (Dec 26, 2010)

Not yet but will try for later this week with my oldest boy--somewhere close like Crotched or Sunapee.  We're going to get one more pond skating session in today before clearing it off tomorrow.  

Pats on today along with storm tracking makes for a perfect Sunday afternoon!


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## WinnChill (Dec 26, 2010)

jrmagic said:


> Bill that is exactly what I was thinking reading Winn Chill's post. I'm packing now and heading up to Magic with the kids early tomorrow morning for the week. I hope it dumps on us



Southern VT through most NH and ME should get the heaviest.  The drifting will be tough to gauge accumulations but I'm hoping NE facing slopes of NH/ME hitting paydirt (Gunstock/Bretton/Cannon/Waterville, maybe Sunapee)  Sunday/SL too but I edged Saddle down a bit due to NW slopes.


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## snoseek (Dec 26, 2010)

I'm looking at gustock tomorrow as it's close. I know it will be windy, my question is will the wind effect lifts at a relatively low lying place like gunstock?


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## billski (Dec 26, 2010)

snoseek said:


> I'm looking at gustock tomorrow as it's close. I know it will be windy, my question is will the wind effect lifts at a relatively low lying place like gunstock?



I don't see a lot of Gunstock chatter on this forum.  You might want to contact "Gunstock" who appears to work there.   PM me if you need the address.


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## WinnChill (Dec 26, 2010)

snoseek said:


> I'm looking at gustock tomorrow as it's close. I know it will be windy, my question is will the wind effect lifts at a relatively low lying place like gunstock?



The problem will be the shifting winds on Monday--expecting to shift from NE to NW which would cut across the slopes for the afternoon (still substantial even at 2300') getting those chairs to rock pretty good.  Doppelmayr lift is sort of tucked in a bit midway up if I recall but figure it will still be troublesome at the top.


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## WinnChill (Dec 26, 2010)

snoseek said:


> I'm looking at gustock tomorrow as it's close. I know it will be windy, my question is will the wind effect lifts at a relatively low lying place like gunstock?



Just in from Gunstock...

_"Wind thresholds vary and because of it being a ‘Noreaster, it comes directly at us.  We have some lifts that are well sheltered and the CTEC detach holds up well.  The Tiger lift can be susceptible when the winds moves over our notch." _

Maybe the Doppelmayr hi-speed quad (CTEC) could do ok later on but suspect issues in the morning, then Tiger in the PM.


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