# Hurricane Earl Speculation Thread



## hammer (Aug 30, 2010)

Trying to figure this one out...have a rather important outside activity on Saturday and while it would be interesting to have a storm the timing would really suck.


----------



## WJenness (Aug 30, 2010)

One of my friends may get to experience this hurricane twice...

She's in Anguilla right now on a family vacation and the hurricane is passing just to the north of the island right now.

She comes home (to MA) on Wednesday and may get to see Earl again this weekend.

-w


----------



## Glenn (Aug 30, 2010)

hammer said:


> Trying to figure this one out...have a rather important outside activity on Saturday and while it would be interesting to have a storm the timing would really suck.



Me too. It's the first day of "Summer Brewfest" at Mt. Snow. A lot of people will be :angry: if it's rained out.


----------



## billski (Aug 30, 2010)

I hope Earl beats the snot out of this hot weather.  I've had more "too hot to hike" days this summer than I care to remember!


----------



## EOS (Aug 30, 2010)

WJenness said:


> One of my friends may get to experience this hurricane twice...
> 
> She's in Anguilla right now on a family vacation and the hurricane is passing just to the north of the island right now.
> 
> ...




Tell her to *bring a camera* on the plane with her in case she can see the cloud formation of the hurricane on the flight back!


----------



## 2knees (Aug 31, 2010)

supposed to go camping starting friday night in R.I.  seems like the cape and the islands might get whacked pretty good out of this but no commitment yet as to how far west its gonna go.


----------



## billski (Aug 31, 2010)

2knees said:


> supposed to go camping starting friday night in R.I.  seems like the cape and the islands might get whacked pretty good out of this but no commitment yet as to how far west its gonna go.


either way, you gonna be one wet boy!


----------



## gmcunni (Aug 31, 2010)




----------



## 2knees (Aug 31, 2010)

billski said:


> either way, you gonna be one wet boy!



that sounds REALLY creepy.....


Not gonna go friday if its pouring since i have both my kids with me.  i dont think they would enjoy it too much.


----------



## drjeff (Aug 31, 2010)

Glenn said:


> Me too. It's the first day of "Summer Brewfest" at Mt. Snow. A lot of people will be :angry: if it's rained out.



Glenn, baring some major slow down of the cold front coming in from the West that in all likelyhood will keep Earl offshore, the biggest effect Earl will have on brewfest is a few decent wind gusts.  The timing of Earl's passage is more likely to have any rain that reaches So VT occur Friday night when you and me and our better halves are consuming some adult beverages at your place! :beer:

If by some chance Earl comes inland and causes a cancellation of brewer's fest for Saturday,  I'll host my own, and you know where that would be held!


----------



## drjeff (Aug 31, 2010)

2knees said:


> supposed to go camping starting friday night in R.I.  seems like the cape and the islands might get whacked pretty good out of this but no commitment yet as to how far west its gonna go.



This is one of those storms where 30 or 40 miles difference in the track will be the difference between some wind and light rain for RI this Friday evening/Saturday and serious WIND and RAIN.  Either way the surf at the RI beaches (and any South facing at first and then Easterly facing beaches later) should be mighty impressive to see


----------



## hammer (Aug 31, 2010)

2knees said:


> supposed to go camping starting friday night in R.I.  seems like the cape and the islands might get whacked pretty good out of this but no commitment yet as to how far west its gonna go.


Tent camping in the rain sucks...hope you can wait it out or cancel.


----------



## billski (Aug 31, 2010)

2knees said:


> that sounds REALLY creepy.....


  no worse than the wet butt thread....:blink:


----------



## ctenidae (Aug 31, 2010)

Hope it goes east- don't want to pull the boat this close to teh end of the season- like packing your ski gear "for a minute" in mid March.


----------



## drjeff (Aug 31, 2010)

*fingers crossed*  but the models are starting to show that cold front coming in from the West should win out the battle to steer Earl away from a New England landfall by a few hundred miles 






Still 60 to 72 hours to go though, but atleast for most of today, the projected storm tracks for just about all of the forcasting models have been taking Earl more to the East with each new model run, and that's very good news for the New England coast!


----------



## Glenn (Sep 1, 2010)

drjeff said:


> Glenn, baring some major slow down of the cold front coming in from the West that in all likelyhood will keep Earl offshore, the biggest effect Earl will have on brewfest is a few decent wind gusts.  The timing of Earl's passage is more likely to have any rain that reaches So VT occur Friday night when you and me and our better halves are consuming some adult beverages at your place! :beer:
> 
> If by some chance Earl comes inland and causes a cancellation of brewer's fest for Saturday,  I'll host my own, and you know where that would be held!



Awesome Jeff! It looks like it's tracking a bit more East...and that's a damn good thing. But hey, it is always good to have a "Plan B". :beer:


----------



## SKIQUATTRO (Sep 1, 2010)

will be surfing today and tomorrow (friday will be just nuts) and hopefully some left over swell for the weekend...


----------



## Warp Daddy (Sep 1, 2010)

drjeff said:


> *fingers crossed*  but the models are starting to show that cold front coming in from the West should win out the battle to steer Earl away from a New England landfall by a few hundred miles
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That's great for coastal NE ,  we plan to be in Harwichport/ Chatham region  for  a week starting 9/13  after a week in Bolton Landing on Lake George , Would have hated to see serious damage or beach erosion


----------



## SKIQUATTRO (Sep 1, 2010)

Hurricane swells are great, but keep the 'cane wayyyyy off shore.....


----------



## skijay (Sep 1, 2010)

I was vacationing back in August of 2004 on Lido Key (Sarasota, FL) and we were told to evacuate due to Charley's path was to hug the Gulf coast with eyes on Tampa, FL.

We did find a place in Sebring, FL and left the Thursday (12th) in the morning before the 6pm - "have to be off the key" time.

It was horrible to find a place since most of the gulf coast evacuees went towards Orlando (our first choice).  Our hotel in Sebring had "Hurricane Charley free zone" posted under their name.

At about 2:00pm (Friday the 13th) while in Sebring, FL at the Wal-Mart, the announcement came over the loud speaker, that this store will be closing shortly due to the change in Hurricane Charley's path.  Starting around 5:00 pm that night, I was in my first hurricane.  It was to much later before the power went out and the landline phones went dead.  However, my Verizon cell phone had full signal during the storm and we were able to keep in touch back home in CT to get weather reports. 

To make a long story short, Charley made a direct hit of Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda and moved north.  We were in it's path.  We were on the right side and yes there was damage, but  it was equal to a Cat 1 storm (we were told this when down there).  

It goes to show how unpredictable a hurricane can be.  We can be here in CT and at 12 noon  on Friday and hear a "Hurricane Warning" alert go out.  You never know.


----------



## gmcunni (Sep 1, 2010)

i hate it when companies use fear to sell their stuff...


----------



## drjeff (Sep 1, 2010)

skijay said:


> I was vacationing back in August of 2004 on Lido Key (Sarasota, FL) and we were told to evacuate due to Charley's path was to hug the Gulf coast with eyes on Tampa, FL.
> 
> We did find a place in Sebring, FL and left the Thursday (12th) in the morning before the 6pm - "have to be off the key" time.
> 
> ...



Charlie was nuts! (my parent's Florida house is in Port Charlotte - fortunately their builder didn't cut any corners and the only damage the 100+ mph wind gusts caused was a couple of tipped over palm trees that had been planted a few months before)  I was down there about 3 weeks after Charlie and the damage was sobering to see 1st hand, and it took almost 3 years before all of the FEMA trailers that were brought in for people who lost their homes to finally leave one of the areas that FEMA had set them up in post Charlie just down the road from the community my parents live in

Let's just hope that all of New England is on the right side of Earl's eye as he passes by about 48 hours from now.  The New England coast won't have too many issues with that side of Earl


----------



## Glenn (Sep 2, 2010)

Looks to still be tracking a bit east...which is good. Coastal CT is going to get some tropical storm like weather. I imagine even inland CT, the rain will be pretty heavy.


----------



## deadheadskier (Sep 2, 2010)

drjeff said:


> Charlie was nuts! (my parent's Florida house is in Port Charlotte - fortunately their builder didn't cut any corners and the only damage the 100+ mph wind gusts caused was a couple of tipped over palm trees that had been planted a few months before)  I was down there about 3 weeks after Charlie and the damage was sobering to see 1st hand, and it took almost 3 years before all of the FEMA trailers that were brought in for people who lost their homes to finally leave one of the areas that FEMA had set them up in post Charlie just down the road from the community my parents live in
> 
> Let's just hope that all of New England is on the right side of Earl's eye as he passes by about 48 hours from now.  The New England coast won't have too many issues with that side of Earl



I was living in Nokomis during Charlie.  Probably 20 miles by crow flight to Port Charlotte.  Charlie wasn't much worse than a bad thunder storm by us.  I was amazed how much stronger it was and the destruction that short of a distance away.


----------



## drjeff (Sep 2, 2010)

deadheadskier said:


> I was living in Nokomis during Charlie.  Probably 20 miles by crow flight to Port Charlotte.  Charlie wasn't much worse than a bad thunder storm by us.  I was amazed how much stronger it was and the destruction that short of a distance away.



Yup, the path BAD of destruction of Charlie wasn't all that wide, but where it was, WOW!  And also the way that Charlie formed where he was just kind of paralleling the SW Coast of Florida as basically a lower end Cat 1 Hurricane, with forcasters expecting Charlie to make landfall in the Tampa/St. Pete area as a Cat 1, and then all of the sudden he got between Naples and Fort Meyers and within a couple of hours blew up into a compact strong Cat 2/"weak" Cat 3 storm and made a quick right turn into basically Charlotte Harbor 

Gotta hope that Earl does what forcasters are saying and keeps that right side of the storm offshore at all times!


----------



## billski (Sep 2, 2010)

gmcunni said:


> i hate it when companies use fear to sell their stuff...



I kinda enjoy being without power for a few days.  Not like this is winter time...


----------



## hammer (Sep 2, 2010)

I've read that the French Toast alert level is elevated...

http://www.universalhub.com/french-toast


----------



## bigbog (Sep 2, 2010)

WJenness said:


> One of my friends may get to experience this hurricane twice...
> 
> She's in Anguilla right now on a family vacation and the hurricane is passing just to the north of the island right now.
> She comes home (to MA) on Wednesday and may get to see Earl again this weekend.
> -w


Most likely she's a fanatic...windsurfer, surfer, or wakeboarder


----------



## drjeff (Sep 2, 2010)

billski said:


> I kinda enjoy being without power for a few days.  Not like this is winter time...



Especially since once Earl pulls through, we're supposed to get some nice, pleasant temps and with the breeze that will be around for a little while, if someone if powerless for a bit, it would be quite comfortable.  Now if someone was powerless and dealing with the temps of yesterday/today, that wouldn't be nearly as enjoyable.

More than likely though for most of the New England coastline, *maybe* Nantucket excluded depending on the track, Earl will likely be equivalent in his effects to that of a "good" non-snow event Nor'easter - a bunch of wind, a bunch of rain, some big surf, some coastal flooding and some beach erosion.

For the weather watching "geeks" (myself totally included   ) Earl could very well be taking the "perfect" track.  Close enough to give some wind/rain and BIG surf, but at the same time keeping the part of the storm that could very well bring MAJOR damage offshore.  And also from a pure numbers/weather geek standpoint, some of the stmospheric pressure's Earl is generating now and the related wind speeds on the right side of the storm are IMPRESSIVE.  The key thing from a safety standpoint will be to watch how Earl starts to tack this afternoon.  Most models are suggesting that he'll start to take the CRUCIAL turn from his current basically NNW track to a NNE/NE track that will keep his eye offshore early this afternoon.  If this easterly turn doesn't happen until say this evening, then that coukld spell trouble especially for the New England coast since as of right now the model consensus has Earl tracking 30 to 50 miles SE of Nantucket, and the longer he waits to turn to the East, the further the West the track will be and then the Cape and Islands come into play


----------



## bigbog (Sep 2, 2010)

gmcunni said:


>


Bring it on Earl!!!...Maine's NW woods really needs the rain.  Smaller brooks totally dried up...headwaters of watersheds reduced to shallow trickles...  It's serious stuff up there...


----------



## WJenness (Sep 2, 2010)

bigbog said:


> Most likely she's a fanatic...windsurfer, surfer, or wakeboarder



She's got some crazy in her...

But not that kind...

-w


----------



## ChileMass (Sep 2, 2010)

bigbog said:


> Bring it on Earl!!!...Maine's NW woods really needs the rain.  Smaller brooks totally dried up...headwaters of watersheds reduced to shallow trickles...  It's serious stuff up there...



I guess you'll get some rain for sure up there, but wind damage could offset the benefit....

Seems like every time I see a new track forecast it gets a little closer to Nantucket.  First is was 100 miles, then 75, then 50, now down to 30.  I got family out in Brewster....batten down the hatches....


----------



## SKIQUATTRO (Sep 2, 2010)

just called my neighbors on the cape (our house is in eastham) asked them to bring in all the outside furniture and secure what they can.......


----------



## ChileMass (Sep 2, 2010)

Channel 5 weather now estimates Earl will pass 24 miles off Nantucket and confirms each rev of the model keeps showing it coming a little further west.  The Cape and eastern Maine better get ready for a big blow.....

Anyone got a good recipe for New Orleans-style hurricane drinks?


----------



## hammer (Sep 2, 2010)

I just hope it hauls a$$ out of here for Saturday...and I hope the best for those on the Cape, they will be in for some fun...


----------



## bigbog (Sep 2, 2010)

Oh yeah...people along coast, especially the Cape really get treated to the real thing.  Remember back in ?? 89'?...when one came up coast...a lot of damage, beach erosion down on the Cape/South Shore.

$.01


----------



## 2knees (Sep 3, 2010)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> just called my neighbors on the cape (our house is in eastham) asked them to bring in all the outside furniture and secure what they can.......



Eastham?  nice my aunts have a two houses near first encounter.  

man, when that tide goes out, you could walk for miles and not get over your knees.


----------



## ChileMass (Sep 3, 2010)

Looks like it won't be so bad after all.  Good news for the Cape and our friends up in Maine.  

Cancelling the hurricane party at my house........


----------



## darent (Sep 3, 2010)

8;00pm nantucket, moderate winds no rain yet, big surf 10 to 20ft waves on south shore


----------



## riverc0il (Sep 3, 2010)

hammer said:


> I've read that the French Toast alert level is elevated...
> 
> http://www.universalhub.com/french-toast


Calling billski....


----------

