# Looks like we finally have some hope



## Masskier (Feb 14, 2010)

Area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
741 pm est sun feb 14 2010

.synopsis...
An upper level trough across eastern new england will slowly
weaken by monday...before being replaced by another system for
tuesday into wednesday. The system for tuesday into wednesday
will have the potential to produce a moderate snowfall event
across the north country. A prolonged and significant upslope
snow event will be possible for the northern adirondack and
northern and central green mountains for wednesday and thursday
of this upcoming week with near normal temperatures.


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## Brownsville Brooklyn (Feb 15, 2010)

Masskier said:


> Area forecast discussion
> national weather service burlington vt
> 741 pm est sun feb 14 2010
> 
> ...



weather.com now indicating 4-6"....keep our fingers crossed....fell asleep again at 9pm, as usual, then woke up wide awake at 3am....brutal pattern!!


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## soulseller (Feb 15, 2010)

optimism on SCWB for the first time in awhile.


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## Johnskiismore (Feb 15, 2010)

snowforecast.com is calling for around a foot for the whites, GOOD!!!!


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## Glenn (Feb 16, 2010)

Southern VT looking to get 3-8". Somehat of an odd spread...but we'll take what we can get at this point.


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## WinnChill (Feb 16, 2010)

Johnskiismore said:


> snowforecast.com is calling for around a foot for the whites, GOOD!!!!



If you count a two-three day total, then yes, the Whites could get around a foot, but we have always kept the main storm total for the Whites well under a foot (originally an average of 8").  We actually dropped the ranges a little bit this morning, favoring the low end of the ranges.


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## WinnChill (Feb 16, 2010)

Glenn said:


> Southern VT looking to get 3-8". Somehat of an odd spread...but we'll take what we can get at this point.



We dropped VT's totals too, but keeping in mind we get backedge upslope tonight which will just barely make tomorrows snow reports.


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## Marc (Feb 16, 2010)

Glenn said:


> Southern VT looking to get 3-8". Somehat of an odd spread...but we'll take what we can get at this point.



Not considering what happened after the last storm.






"And now for the forecast: we expect this next system to bring somewhere between a dusting and 40" of new snowfall with an equal possibility of rain, sleet, freezing rain, partly cloudy and clear conditions thrown into the mix.  We won't rule out the possiblity of an extra tropical cyclone at this point either."


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## WinnChill (Feb 16, 2010)

Yeah, models trended away from us (again) this morning so we'll see how far that cutoff zone shifts.  Just the nature of these nor'easter beasts.


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## MommaBear (Feb 16, 2010)

We've got 4 inches on the ground this morning (snow has stopped for now) in central/eastern CT.  Not that it does much good here.   :-?


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## hammer (Feb 16, 2010)

I wouldn't care if we had NCP in the Boston area...would rather see a shift to the north so that central/northern NE would get more snow love.


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## Glenn (Feb 16, 2010)

MommaBear said:


> We've got 4 inches on the ground this morning (snow has stopped for now) in central/eastern CT.  Not that it does much good here.   :-?



I'm waint for Euller to update us on conditions in SoVT. Looks like they'll do better than we will this time. :beer:


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## WJenness (Feb 16, 2010)

Hate to be the one to do it...

But so far, at least hear in Woburn, it's looking like a B-U-S-T bust...

No accumulation, and we're over to rain. 

-w


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## drjeff (Feb 16, 2010)

Glenn said:


> I'm waint for Euller to update us on conditions in SoVT. Looks like they'll do better than we will this time. :beer:



The 7AM report from my back deck at Mount Snow courtesy of my wife had just an inch so far  

A text from Canyon Quad about 10:30 has it at about 2" now.  

Not exactly falling at an epic rate so far


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## Marc (Feb 16, 2010)

About 2" here in Chepachet.  Not snowing currently.  Radar looks like there will be more coming through on the backside though.  Maybe just in time for the evening commute.


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## wa-loaf (Feb 16, 2010)

I've got light snow and close to 2 inches.


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## billski (Feb 16, 2010)

WJenness said:


> Hate to be the one to do it...
> 
> But so far, at least hear in Woburn, it's looking like a B-U-S-T bust...
> 
> ...


Got about an inch in Lexington.  That should be enough to clog the highways north and west tomorrow morning.


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## hammer (Feb 16, 2010)

WJenness said:


> Hate to be the one to do it...
> 
> But so far, at least hear in Woburn, it's looking like a B-U-S-T bust...
> 
> ...


No ski areas in Woburn...:wink:


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## deadheadskier (Feb 16, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> We dropped VT's totals too, but keeping in mind we get backedge upslope tonight which will just barely make tomorrows snow reports.



what is the link to your website?


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## soulseller (Feb 16, 2010)

deadheadskier said:


> what is the link to your website?



http://www.snowforecast.com/


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## Glenn (Feb 16, 2010)

drjeff said:


> The 7AM report from my back deck at Mount Snow courtesy of my wife had just an inch so far
> 
> A text from Canyon Quad about 10:30 has it at about 2" now.
> 
> Not exactly falling at an epic rate so far



I "think" it may ramp up later this evening...according to NWS at least. I can only hope! 

Is Mrs. Jeff up there all week?


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## deadheadskier (Feb 16, 2010)

soulseller said:


> http://www.snowforecast.com/



cool, so probably 5ish or so for Ragged?


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## drjeff (Feb 16, 2010)

Glenn said:


> Is Mrs. Jeff up there all week?



Originally her and the kids were coming home Monday night. Then her business partner decided to work a couple of extra days this week so that she can take a longer weekend next weekend, and now S has today (Tuesday) and Tommorrow off, so  she grabbed the ski day today, and road conditions dependent is either coming home tonight or early tommorrow.  She won't be there to watch me quality control Vcunning beertender Saturday evening though


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## hammer (Feb 16, 2010)

A number of schools in southern NH canceled today...:roll:


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## WJenness (Feb 16, 2010)

Snow starting to stick to parking lot pretty well here in Woburn.

-w


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## WinnChill (Feb 16, 2010)

deadheadskier said:


> cool, so probably 5ish or so for Ragged?



Was out for a bit--had to get away from radar.  Some heavier stuff coming in--just hope it holds to get to our minimum range.  We were eyeing the southeastern Whites getting some enhanced upslope....again, just hope we can get close to the bottom range at this point.  We may be eating this one, but we'll see.  :-(


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## Euler (Feb 16, 2010)

Glenn said:


> I'm waint for Euller to update us on conditions in SoVT. Looks like they'll do better than we will this time. :beer:



2" in Putney so far and its snowing at a good rate now.  Picked up the pace about 1PM here.  I'm hoping we might get 4" here and 6 at Mt. Snow...

We'll see....


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## KingM (Feb 16, 2010)

Looks like a bust for up here.


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## WJenness (Feb 16, 2010)

Un-busting for Woburn... Snow coming down at quite the clip now, plow went by in the parking lot, and it's filling back in pretty quick... Roads still passable, but quite slow going out there right now.

Nashoba and Wa are probably skiing pretty well right now. Blue hills is more a question about when it will change over and back / how much rain they'll get.

-w


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## hammer (Feb 16, 2010)

WJenness said:


> Un-busting for Woburn... Snow coming down at quite the clip now, plow went by in the parking lot, and it's filling back in pretty quick... Roads still passable, but quite slow going out there right now.
> 
> Nashoba and Wa are probably skiing pretty well right now. Blue hills is more a question about when it will change over and back / how much rain they'll get.
> 
> -w


Confirm...commute home will be a pain, sure hope that there will be payoff in the hills.


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## WinnChill (Feb 16, 2010)

KingM said:


> Looks like a bust for up here.



Could be, but let's see how the rest of it pans out.

Plus, we're looking for northwest upslope to contribute more for N VT so hopefully you get in on some.


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## KingM (Feb 16, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Could be, but let's see how the rest of it pans out.
> 
> Plus, we're looking for northwest upslope to contribute more for N VT so hopefully you get in on some.



I'm just wondering how the initial forecast could be so wrong. Just yesterday, Accuweather was saying 6-12, with snow arriving starting at 7:00 AM. This was so wrong that we actually had blue skies for much of the day. Right now it is overcast. I saw two or three flakes (literally) and then we got dry-slotted.


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## billski (Feb 16, 2010)

WJenness said:


> Un-busting for Woburn... Snow coming down at quite the clip now, plow went by in the parking lot, and it's filling back in pretty quick... Roads still passable, but quite slow going out there right now.
> 
> Nashoba and Wa are probably skiing pretty well right now. Blue hills is more a question about when it will change over and back / how much rain they'll get.
> 
> -w



It is freaking dumping here in eastern Mass.   Matt Noyes is cranked  http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/


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## Euler (Feb 16, 2010)

*SoVT is getting pounded*

now up  to 6 inches on my deck in Putney!  And I just happen to have an afternoon of skiing planned for tomorrow!


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## soulseller (Feb 16, 2010)

Anyone have a total for the Princeton area?


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## WinnChill (Feb 16, 2010)

KingM said:


> I'm just wondering how the initial forecast could be so wrong. Just yesterday, Accuweather was saying 6-12, with snow arriving starting at 7:00 AM. This was so wrong that we actually had blue skies for much of the day. Right now it is overcast. I saw two or three flakes (literally) and then we got dry-slotted.



I know you're frustrated KingM--going off of Accuwx's forecast, sure, I'd be mad too.  I can't say our forecast is/was entirely right either...we originally had 4-7" for you but dropped it down to 2-5" this AM...still keeping in mind that wraparound upslope will start up tonight adding to what we see this PM/evening.  We're not out of the woods just yet but it's not looking that great right now.  Yes, the timing was off...the data available up til this morning had this thing starting this morning...so understand that we are data dependant and we have to interpret what it says.  Up til last night/early this morning, that's what we were seeing.  But, hey, there is a storm out there and it is pulling heavy snow across New England as predicted...yes, the timing is off and tracking slightly differently...saying that it's entirely wrong may be overstating it a bit.  Deserving of some criticism...sure, but these sorts of things happen when dealing with the edge of a nor'easter, strong or otherwise.

Hey, hope we can get that upslope to add up for you at SB!


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## billski (Feb 16, 2010)

Euler said:


> now up to 6 inches on my deck in Putney! And I just happen to have an afternoon of skiing planned for tomorrow!


 
I'll bet Magic is gonna rock tomorrow.


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## billski (Feb 16, 2010)

soulseller said:


> Anyone have a total for the Princeton area?


http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/display_snow_from_pns.php


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## KingM (Feb 16, 2010)

WinnChill,

I hear ya. As a skier, a snow lover, and someone whose business is also highly dependent on fresh white stuff falling from the skies, I find it incredibly depressing to look out the window every morning to the same cruddy looking snow.

For god's sake, can I at least get enough tonight to cover up the 50,000+ yellow holes drilled into the snow in the back yard?


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## wa-loaf (Feb 16, 2010)

Just cleared 4 inches off the driveway. Picking up again. I'll probably end up with 6+ once it's done.


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## WinnChill (Feb 16, 2010)

I know King...with businesses and reputations at stake, this snow thing eats us up!    Man, I can't tell you how I feel when I see a forecast go down the tubes...and then have to look at it all day!  Ugh!  I definately take it hard. 

Well, accumulations for you will take a while to add up...and the higher slopes/summits will see most of it.  But, yeah, hoping you can cover up the ugly stuff!

Cheers!


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## WinnChill (Feb 16, 2010)

KingM said:


> WinnChill,
> 
> I hear ya. As a skier, a snow lover, and someone whose business is also highly dependent on fresh white stuff falling from the skies, I find it incredibly depressing to look out the window every morning to the same cruddy looking snow.
> 
> For god's sake, can I at least get enough tonight to cover up the 50,000+ yellow holes drilled into the snow in the back yard?



By the way, nice looking place you got there at Golden Lion!


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## WJenness (Feb 16, 2010)

Cleared about 4" off the car here in Woburn.

Heavy, wet concussion-giving-snowball-type-snow.

-w


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## riverc0il (Feb 16, 2010)

KingM, keep us posted on what is happening in the MRV if you don't mind. I may point my car that way tomorrow. Though at this point, I really don't know. MRG reported nothing at lifts close for today.


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## wa-loaf (Feb 16, 2010)

Magic is reporting 6-8" so far.


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## jaywbigred (Feb 16, 2010)

Mount Snow is reporting 5 on the ground via Facebook as of 5 pm.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 16, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> KingM, keep us posted on what is happening in the MRV if you don't mind. I may point my car that way tomorrow. Though at this point, I really don't know. MRG reported nothing at lifts close for today.



how much snow is down up by you?


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## riverc0il (Feb 16, 2010)

deadheadskier said:


> how much snow is down up by you?



I was just about to report back on that.... I would say about 2" and snowing pretty good.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 16, 2010)

bummer, we're over 6 down here at the seacoast.  Was hoping Ragged would receive a similar total.


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## Euler (Feb 16, 2010)

jaywbigred said:


> Mount Snow is reporting 5 on the ground via Facebook as of 5 pm.



I'm saying 6" down here in Putney and it's still coming down.  I went sledding with my kids and their friends this evening and had an absolute blast!


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## KingM (Feb 16, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> KingM, keep us posted on what is happening in the MRV if you don't mind. I may point my car that way tomorrow. Though at this point, I really don't know. MRG reported nothing at lifts close for today.



I wish I could give you something to work with. I've been looking out the window every fifteen minutes since I woke up, thinking, "Any moment now..."

I'm expecting to see the first of what should amount to several flakes of accumulation any moment now. But maybe we'll hit the jackpot and wake to find a solid dusting to 1/8" burying the valley.


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## billski (Feb 16, 2010)

7" here and beginning to taper off.


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## riverc0il (Feb 16, 2010)

Snow has stopped here at 3" and the radar loops seem to show this thing is shutting off. Too early to call it a bust? Wondering if I should just cancel the vaca day for tomorrow at this point.


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## billski (Feb 16, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> Snow has stopped here at 3" and the radar loops seem to show this thing is shutting off. Too early to call it a bust? Wondering if I should just cancel the vaca day for tomorrow at this point.


At 6pm magic reported in with 6-8, with some closed blacks being reevaluated in the AM. You know what that means. If those trails open, you may have fun, but you may bottom out. Your call.
Stratt and Mt. Snow also reporting about 6", but I'm sure they will be vastly busier.   Thus, it seems that the good stuff hit SVT this time.


I'd tell the masses to head to Magic, just to drum up the business and enjoy a great, uncrowded day!

Too bad I'm in the office.


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## riverc0il (Feb 16, 2010)

Too bad my vouchers are not valid during the Holiday week otherwise that would be the sure shot. Not sure I want to pay holiday rates to ski 6-8" over no base. May still take my chances at Cannon tomorrow hoping for some "mountain magic".  Guess it beats working even if it would not qualify as a powder day at less than half a foot.


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## billski (Feb 16, 2010)

If I could find a couple inches of fresh somewhere, I could manage a way to entertain myself  
From a price point of view, you're better off in NH, where they don't have blackout dates.  Gravitating towards the higher elevations is tusually he only way to work the mountain magic odds.  You know all this stuff, just blabbin now.


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## MommaBear (Feb 16, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> Too bad my vouchers are not valid during the Holiday week otherwise that would be the sure shot.



Same here.  Was all excited to hit Magic or Sugarbush this week...then looked closer at the vouchers.  :-(


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## Johnskiismore (Feb 16, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> Snow has stopped here at 3" and the radar loops seem to show this thing is shutting off. Too early to call it a bust? Wondering if I should just cancel the vaca day for tomorrow at this point.



That's funny, just a few exits up from you and we have nadda!  A few flakes and that's it!


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## riverc0il (Feb 16, 2010)

Johnskiismore said:


> That's funny, just a few exits up from you and we have nadda!  A few flakes and that's it!


Thanks for confirming my suspicions. Doubtful even Cannon got an inch or maybe two at best. I just took the dog out and the sky was perfectly clear with the stars sparkling. This one is over for central NH and it seems it never even got started in NoNH. Ragged might have gotten 4-5" but I ain't pull full holiday rate for Ragged especially whereas that small snow total is not going to open up any glades. I may see if the up slope kicks in later this week and reschedule the requested day off later this week....


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## deadheadskier (Feb 16, 2010)

Ragged Glades at this point would require 8-10 of heavy snow at minimum; especially with their conservative approach to opening them.  Back in early January I was shocked they didn't open for at least a couple of days with what I saw with a quick poach.


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## Johnskiismore (Feb 16, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> Thanks for confirming my suspicions. Doubtful even Cannon got an inch or maybe two at best. I just took the dog out and the sky was perfectly clear with the stars sparkling. This one is over for central NH and it seems it never even got started in NoNH. Ragged might have gotten 4-5" but I ain't pull full holiday rate for Ragged especially whereas that small snow total is not going to open up any glades. I may see if the up slope kicks in later this week and reschedule the requested day off later this week....



My ski patrol friend @ Cannon said they got two inches today.


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## Johnskiismore (Feb 16, 2010)

Snowshoe WV is looking at ANOTHER 10 or so inches with the current storm.  Roadtrip!


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## riverc0il (Feb 16, 2010)

deadheadskier said:


> Ragged Glades at this point would require 8-10 of heavy snow at minimum; especially with their conservative approach to opening them.  Back in early January I was shocked they didn't open for at least a couple of days with what I saw with a quick poach.


Given the snow pack we have here, I am surprised anything less than a foot of heavy/dense snow would open them without even having seen them first hand. We are (well, were) down to bare ground in many locations though our packed snow walking trails still had a few inches due to trees and compaction. I fear this storm will only help freshen already open trails. It started a little wet but finished quite fluffy as temps began to drop. Literally started perfect snowball snow and ended with snow that is impossible to make a snowball with. Any ways, we need a big one really bad to say the least and these SNE storms are just not doing it where it matters most. SNE pass holders may beg to differ if they went out and skied tonight but they won't be begging to differ when they head north to the mountains.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 16, 2010)

Surprisingly not the case at Ragged.  snowpack is a solid 6 to 8 in the woods all over the mountain.  They must have dodged the major bullet with the snow eating rain.  nothing close to bare ground anywhere on that mountain right now.


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## riverc0il (Feb 16, 2010)

deadheadskier said:


> Surprisingly not the case at Ragged.  snowpack is a solid 6 to 8 in the woods all over the mountain.  They must have dodged the major bullet with the snow eating rain.  nothing close to bare ground anywhere on that mountain right now.


Was not expecting there to be any bare ground given they are at elevation. But signs of bare ground here would indicate less than a foot base up on the mountain in the woods suggesting at least another foot of dense needed minimum to cover up the schwack.


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## Johnskiismore (Feb 16, 2010)

Heading home from Lincoln tonight, it was funny to see cars with snow snow packed on their grates..... but no new snow at their arrival point!


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## riverc0il (Feb 16, 2010)

Johnskiismore said:


> Heading home from Lincoln tonight, it was funny to see cars with snow snow packed on their grates..... but no new snow at their arrival point!


If you find that funny, you have a very twisted sense of humor!!! :-x :-(


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## deadheadskier (Feb 16, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> Was not expecting there to be any bare ground given they are at elevation. But signs of bare ground here would indicate less than a foot base up on the mountain in the woods suggesting at least another foot of dense needed minimum to cover up the schwack.



no doubt, less than a foot base up there.  but a solid 6-8 inch of 'rain compacted slab' can cover up quite nicely with 8 inches of wet snow.  I think that would at least open up the Tree Hugger area that was open a month ago.


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## Johnskiismore (Feb 16, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> If you find that funny, you have a very twisted sense of humor!!! :-x :-(



Funny not in the ha-ha way, funny in the this is really bad way.  I have another eight shifts in a row with people primarily vacationing at Loon.  I am expecting to hear the question of where's the snow at least 5K times.  Booooooo


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## deadheadskier (Feb 16, 2010)

Johnskiismore said:


> I am expecting to hear the question of where's the snow



Snow's in Stowe.  If I could find a way to make life work professionally, I'd be back there in heart beat.  Well, maybe Burlington; wife would prefer that.

ce la vie


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## billski (Feb 17, 2010)

No place is more deserving of paying full price other than magic.  Go for it!


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## KingM (Feb 17, 2010)

Josh Fox posted an update on the Single Chair Blog last night at about 10:30 saying that well, we missed the first part, but we still should have a foot by Friday morning. Not a flake on the ground this morning. To be fair, he's not the only one who missed this one, but still, there comes a time when it's best to admit defeat and retreat from the field of battle.

In seven winters, I've never seen a forecast bust so badly as this one. 24 hours out everyone was saying a foot and we received literally nothing.


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## riverc0il (Feb 17, 2010)

billski said:


> No place is more deserving of paying full price other than magic.  Go for it!


I completely agree. But... My heart says yes but my wallet says no. Having prepaid for vouchers this season, I really need to stick to the plan as much as possible to keep finances in line.


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## WinnChill (Feb 17, 2010)

KingM said:


> 24 hours out everyone was saying a foot and we received literally nothing.



I hope you're not lumping us in with that.  Granted,   we busted too but not as bad....if there are degrees of bust-age. ;-)


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## Glenn (Feb 17, 2010)

Euler,
Sweet! Thanks for the update! Sounds like SoVT did OK with this storm...finally! 

Jeff,
LOL! We'll have to get some pics of the quality control process Saturday evening. 

Beleive it or not, we got 9-10" of snow here in CT. It was a bit of a surprise. My wife wanted to go out when I got home from work. She went into a few stores...I did doughnuts in the snow covered parking lots. Happiness is 4wd and an unlocked transfercase that allows for some nice slippage. Wheee!


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## billski (Feb 17, 2010)

KingM said:


> Josh Fox posted an update on the Single Chair Blog last night at about 10:30 saying that well, we missed the first part, but we still should have a foot by Friday morning. Not a flake on the ground this morning. To be fair, he's not the only one who missed this one, but still, there comes a time when it's best to admit defeat and retreat from the field of battle.
> 
> In seven winters, I've never seen a forecast bust so badly as this one. 24 hours out everyone was saying a foot and we received literally nothing.



You know, this is going to come around full circle.  At this point, nobody is going to trust the weather guesser-people.  Then we'll get a huge dump, everyone will ignore a legitimate forecast and  everyone will be caught with their pants down.  The flatlanders will be in 8 hour gridlock and the powder snobs won't be able to get to it.   Then we'll all panic and say "never again."  Repeat.


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## Mildcat (Feb 17, 2010)

From Sunday River's snow report. 


> Sometimes Mother Nature can be a cruel mistress, this is one of those times. Yesterday's snowstorm seemed to omit Sunday River from its intended targets and we missed out. We aren't angry at Mother Nature, just disappointed and that can be worse.



They might not be angry at Mother Nature but I'm frikken pissed! :angry:


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## billski (Feb 17, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> I completely agree. But... My heart says yes but my wallet says no. Having prepaid for vouchers this season, I really need to stick to the plan as much as possible to keep finances in line.


 I know, I know exactly what you are saying.  I'm being a little philosophical at this point.  I'm gonna keep drumming the Magic drum this week.


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## WinnChill (Feb 17, 2010)

billski said:


> You know, this is going to come around full circle.  At this point, nobody is going to trust the weather guesser-people.  Then we'll get a huge dump, everyone will ignore a legitimate forecast and  everyone will be caught with their pants down.  The flatlanders will be in 8 hour gridlock and the powder snobs won't be able to get to it.   Then we'll all panic and say "never again."  Repeat.



I'd like to say we do a little more than "guess".  Please look at the Boston NWS discussion prior to the storm and tell me if this is simply guesswork.  We don't spend hours looking at data just to throw out a guess.  I tend to bristle at comments like this--after years of people mocking your profession, you would to.  

But your premise about complacency is true Bill...whether it's for snow/ice storms, hurricanes, or tornadoes.  Even more so, I find that people misstate, exagerate, or completely falsify forecasts.  I see it and hear it just about every day...people completly making up predicted snowfall, listening to forecasts for different regions, and worse yet, when we actually get the predicted snowfall but people STILL say we got it wrong for some reason.  During a recent storm, someone said the timing was off...he mentioned a late morning start--I showed him observations with snow starting at 10am--how is that off?  
We'll never win.

But you know, bash it all you want--you know you'll be looking to the forecasters for the next storm.


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## hammer (Feb 17, 2010)

The timing on this storm must have been a little off...I can't imagine school superintendents in southern NH calling off school unless they had reason to believe that the snow was going to arrive during the school day.

That said, methinks people are getting a bit too demanding about snow forecasts...if the predictions are 2" or 2 hours off then they are sooo bad. :roll:


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## billski (Feb 17, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> I'd like to say we do a little more than "guess".
> We'll never win.
> 
> But you know, bash it all you want--you know you'll be looking to the forecasters for the next storm.



You're right, my apologies.  I just get a bit frustrated and needed a whipping boy.   I learned long ago not to take reports too seriously.   While your job may be to preserve and protect life with due warning, I'm just the opposite; I'm looking for fun.  My frustration is that people amplify the forecast and the next thing you know, they don't want to travel in 2" of new fallen.   

I suppose you are right that the conduits of information magnify what you produce.  You have every right to take offense, and for that my apologies.   I get more out of listening to Matt Noyes 10 minute analysis on his site than I do out his 90-second forecast on NECN.  You can't paint an accurate picture in 90 seconds, but that is what everyone wants.


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## WinnChill (Feb 17, 2010)

hammer said:


> The timing on this storm must have been a little off...I can't imagine school superintendents in southern NH calling off school unless they had reason to believe that the snow was going to arrive during the school day.
> 
> That said, methinks people are getting a bit too demanding about snow forecasts...if the predictions are 2" or 2 hours off then they are sooo bad. :roll:



That's very true Hammer.  In fact, I emailed my son's teacher on Monday emphasizing that the heavy snow would arrive in the PM but was too close to call between an early release or snow day (of course teachers don't have any say in the matter but they were in a meeting trying to plan).  The Supers had to err on the side of caution and make the call BEFORE the snow had even started.  Could they have gotten half a day in?  In hindsight, yes.  Was it worth risking buses skidding off the road as the snow hit midday as we thought?  You make the call.  

We try to get it as perfect as possible but the science just isn't there yet.  It's a bitter pill to swallow when we ARE able to see major storms coming DAYS in advance, give all the warnings possible, we see the clouds, we see the wind, we see the snow...and then everyone gives you the finger because they missed out on a few inches.  Do I get pissed?  You bet!


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## Euler (Feb 17, 2010)

billski said:


> ...  I get more out of listening to Matt Noyes 10 minute analysis on his site than I do out his 90-second forecast on NECN.  You can't paint an accurate picture in 90 seconds, but that is what everyone wants.



In a similar vein, I always read the NWS/NOAA DISCUSSION section which is always full of words like "uncertainty, probability, likely, etc."  It was through reading a weather discussion here on AZ last year or the year before that I really learned that a weather forecast is not a prediction of what WILL happen, but rather what is more or less LIKELY to happen.

It's hard to keep that in mind when you're hoping for snow to ski on, though.


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## WinnChill (Feb 17, 2010)

billski said:


> You're right, my apologies.  I just get a bit frustrated and needed a whipping boy.   I learned long ago not to take reports too seriously.   While your job may be to preserve and protect life with due warning, I'm just the opposite; I'm looking for fun.  My frustration is that people amplify the forecast and the next thing you know, they don't want to travel in 2" of new fallen.
> 
> I suppose you are right that the conduits of information magnify what you produce.  You have every right to take offense, and for that my apologies.   I get more out of listening to Matt Noyes 10 minute analysis on his site than I do out his 90-second forecast on NECN.  You can't paint an accurate picture in 90 seconds, but that is what everyone wants.



I appreciate that Bill.  I was going to edit my reply saying it was nothing personal to you or anyone on here--I didn't mean to come off harsh to you...everyone here has been real cool. :beer: It's just I've been attacked (not you) more in the past month than I have in the past couple of years.  It's been more public and personal lately from strangers AND friends (via Facebook, etc) that I feel I need to set things straight.  Just yesterday, a visitor stopped by yesterday morning and the first thing out of her mouth was bashing forecasters--BEFORE she knew I was one.  IN MY OWN HOUSE!  :angry:

Like you said Bill, we're looking for fun...and I'll keep trying to forecast that fun.  That's probably why I've been crabby like everyone else...we need SNOW and SKIING!!!!

Ok, off my soapbox. 

Cheers everyone!


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## kingdom-tele (Feb 17, 2010)

I wouldn't lose any sleep over it Winn

Its just SAD to see the decline of civilization unfolding before us, people would rather read a forecast then look outside, we need verification for everything these days instead of just going out because you can-  lemmings

personally I think your job is the best, you could be way off and there is nothing you or anyone can do about it, people getting mad at the weather and at the weatherman makes about as much sense as being mad your going to die - maybe people need to spend more time enjoying their days!


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## WinnChill (Feb 17, 2010)

kingdom-tele said:


> I wouldn't lose any sleep over it Winn
> 
> Its just SAD to see the decline of civilization unfolding before us, people would rather read a forecast then look outside, we need verification for everything these days instead of just going out because you can-  lemmings
> 
> personally I think your job is the best, you could be way off and there is nothing you or anyone can do about it, people getting mad at the weather and at the weatherman makes about as much sense as being mad your going to die - maybe people need to spend more time enjoying their days!



Thanks Kingdom.  In the same vain though, perhaps we can do better conveying our message to the public.  Seeing that there is a disconnect somewhere, is there something we can do better?  The obvious is just getting the forecast precise...but can we be more clear about uncertainties/variables?  Can we educate the public more?  Can we notify the public better when forecasts aren't working out?  Is it an exercise in futility?  Perhaps.


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## kingdom-tele (Feb 17, 2010)

I thinks its admirable to be forecasting to protect people and help them prepare for conditions, but it is NEW ENGLAND, unless your coming out of a coma, or got dropped from space you should probably have a pretty good idea that its winter, which means anything can happen and you should be prepared

you can't fix stupid in my opinion - and theres a lot of people who can't be fixed

When people start relying on weather forecasts to make decisions - and put aside common sense - what can anyone do?


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## billski (Feb 17, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Thanks Kingdom.  In the same vain though, perhaps we can do better conveying our message to the public.  Seeing that there is a disconnect somewhere, is there something we can do better?  The obvious is just getting the forecast precise...but can we be more clear about uncertainties/variables?  Can we educate the public more?  Can we notify the public better when forecasts aren't working out?  Is it an exercise in futility?  Perhaps.



I think the ANALYSIS part of your job is far more valuable than the FORECAST.   Listening/reading an analysis provides a lot more insight into what is likely to happen than a once sentence quick-cast.

I have gotten to the point that as soon as I see the word "snow" in the forecast, I immediately go to the the probability.  I then look at the trend - ramping up, down, and the probability trend - those hourly charts on NWS with probabilities are more useful to me than words.   I then contrast it against other areas.   

The NWS snow probs map is vastly more useful than yesterday's "4 to 8 inches".  Everybody thinks they may get 8 inches when they hear that.  When I see it on the map, and I'm on the 4" fringe, I know it's highly unlikely I'll be seeing 8.

So, you ask what you can do.   You can make a one or two-paragraph analysis that is readable.   I find there is a HUGE INFORMATION GAP between the one-liners and the full analysis.  One liners are too simplistic.  The Forecast discussion/analysis are so full of acronyms, abbreviations and other meteorological gunk that  they are IMPOSSIBLE for most people to comprehend.   I have had to learn about the NAM and GYZ and all meso-this and meso-that out of necessity.  Most people won't .   I good picture would go a long way in putting things into context.   You've got to do something to keep people from jumping to invalid conclusions.

Remember, customer satisfaction is all about setting expectations properly.  It's not about adjusting the forecast as the event unfolds.  If you have set them up to expect some uncertainty by making it understandable as to why, you will, for sure have far fewer complaints.  I know forecasters try to do this and fail, but you've got to find a way to explain it better.     I know, people want definitive facts.  Good managers learn how to deal with incomplete information.   The rest of us should too.  Resist the demand to over-simplify.  Easier said than done when people have a 45 second attention span.


Keep up the good work.  I review snowforecast.com every day as part of my assessment.


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## WinnChill (Feb 17, 2010)

As usual Bill, you provide great input and and info.  At Snowforecast.com, we do try in our discussions as best we can to bridge the gap from technical to laymans terms.  We try for a blend because, like you and perhaps many others, I can't stand the one or two word forecasts.  It's tough to strike a balance because I have had feedback that we were too wordy or too technical.  We're always open to feedback so perhaps we can keep improving.  Like you said, the NWS does a FANTASTIC job on their forecasts and for those more weather saavy some great insight into the nuts and bolts of forecasting.  Unfortunately, even with all the improvements to their website, I question whether the public uses them all that much and go to the more generic brand name sites.   

I used to do radio weather and I absolutely refused to do the generic "Partly Cloudy, high of whatever"....completely useless!  If time allowed, I tried to narrow down whether those clouds were fair weather clouds or a precursor to a storm--it's a big difference.   _***ADD--My biggest frustration about that job was that part of crew were strictly "broadcasters" and NOT mets.  We had to tell them EXACTLY what to say...and many absolutely refused to ellaborate beyond "partly cloudy"...some more experienced folks could explain a bit more but many did not and read the forecast verbatim....essentially useless and a waste of airtime.***_ 

The graphics you suggested has been on the dream sheet for a while and we hope to incorporate it soon.  We still have a skeleton crew so the time needed for graphics at this point is extremely limited.  Things are looking better for that coming soon though.  

When storm time comes, we try to update more frequently--like yesterday morning when we saw the trend slowing and shifting, I threw in that low end probability.  But those updates can be useless if people don't check back after first viewing earlier.  That's where Facebook comes in handy (perhaps Twitter sometime) and we're working on an Iphone App for alerts.  We're tryin!


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## Greg (Feb 17, 2010)

Picked up about 9" at my house. Sundown got about 6".


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## billski (Feb 17, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> The graphics you suggested has been on the dream sheet for a while and we hope to incorporate it soon.  We still have a skeleton crew so the time needed for graphics at this point is extremely limited.  Things are looking better for that coming soon though.



I know you are trying.   Can you steal from NWS?   They actually have a very very valuable set of maps that are dynamically updated (but only during storm periods).   The only problem is that Albany isn't on board with the program!

I put links to them all on a page here:
http://www.iabsi.com/public/ski/total_snowfall_forecast.html

NY has a good one for LI and CT, but I seem to have dropped the link.  Anyways, the details are not important, it's the concept.


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## WinnChill (Feb 17, 2010)

Nice!  Yeah, I like those.  We're working with a new developer right now and should have some new items up soon.  I'm going to foward the graphics suggestions and see what he can come up with.  My graphics editing hasn't gone past Paint so we'll see how manageable he can make it. 

Cheers!


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## billski (Feb 17, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Nice!  Yeah, I like those.  We're working with a new developer right now and should have some new items up soon.  I'm going to foward the graphics suggestions and see what he can come up with.  My graphics editing hasn't gone past Paint so we'll see how manageable he can make it.
> 
> Cheers!



While you're thinking, here's another idea, courtesy of NWS:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

Not nearly as pretty, but very complete.   Tells a very quick story. updated every 4 hours.


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## billski (Feb 17, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Nice!  Yeah, I like those.  We're working with a new developer right now and should have some new items up soon.  I'm going to foward the graphics suggestions and see what he can come up with.  My graphics editing hasn't gone past Paint so we'll see how manageable he can make it.
> 
> Cheers!



Hey, while I've got you, what's the beta on this northeastern "storm" for early next week?  Kinda early for crazy talk, isn't it?


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## WinnChill (Feb 17, 2010)

billski said:


> Hey, while I've got you, what's the beta on this northeastern "storm" for early next week?  Kinda early for crazy talk, isn't it?



Definately early, but long range models are suggesting a deep trough to move in from the west then.  It could certainly tap into some good Gulf moisture and downstream blocking could help this thing slow up.  At the rate this season has gone, we pretty gun shy--it certainly bears watching!  I'll keep you posted!


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## WJenness (Feb 17, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Definately early, but long range models are suggesting a deep trough to move in from the west then.  It could certainly tap into some good Gulf moisture and downstream blocking could help this thing slow up.  At the rate this season has gone, we pretty gun shy--it certainly bears watching!  I'll keep you posted!



I will continue to hope (as I have all season) that NNE gets socked by a two foot (+) storm anytime now...

Asking a lot, I know... but we've gotta get at least one, right?

-w


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## drjeff (Feb 17, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Definately early, but long range models are suggesting a deep trough to move in from the west then.  It could certainly tap into some good Gulf moisture and downstream blocking could help this thing slow up.  At the rate this season has gone, we pretty gun shy--it certainly bears watching!  I'll keep you posted!



It seems that this year, more than most years, the only certainty about winter storms in the Northeast has been their unpredictability!  We just really haven't that classic winter storm that has a LARGE reaching area over the Northeast.  It seems like this year that 50 miles is the difference between 0-2" and 8 to 10" whereas in a typical New England Winter Storm,  50 miles is more like the difference between 4-8" and 8-10" of snow.


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## KingM (Feb 17, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> I hope you're not lumping us in with that.  Granted,   we busted too but not as bad....if there are degrees of bust-age. ;-)



Are you still sticking to this, which is currently up on the web site:



> Still cloudy and windy (strongest early) with *continued* light to moderate snow/showers through the day--colder too with summit blowing snow and windchills
> 
> Precipitation:
> 60-70% chance of continued light to moderate snow showers through the day
> ...



I hope so, but I have to point out that they can't be "continued" snow showers if they haven't started yet.


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## WinnChill (Feb 17, 2010)

KingM said:


> Are you still sticking to this, which is currently up on the web site:
> 
> 
> 
> I hope so, but I have to point out that they can't be "continued" snow showers if they haven't started yet.



Nope.  Crap.  Haven't got around to changing it.  There's a bunch just west that just haven't crept in.  Have to regroup and retool.


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## WinnChill (Feb 17, 2010)

Winds crapped out today...but will pick up tomorrow and Friday to spark those showers again.


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## KingM (Feb 17, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Nope.  Crap.  Haven't got around to changing it.  There's a bunch just west that just haven't crept in.  Have to regroup and retool.



Damn, you got my hopes up again. When am I going to learn?

(If dentistry isn't sadistic enough for you, try a career in meteorology!)


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## billski (Feb 17, 2010)

KingM said:


> Damn, you got my hopes up again. When am I going to learn?
> 
> (If dentistry isn't sadistic enough for you, try a career in meteorology!)



M,
I should definitely come visit you.   Everywhere I go, snow precedes me.  Here's my track record so far.

Magic 1/ - 6"
Stowe 1/28 - about 12"
New Jersey 2/12 - 12" 
Eastern Mass, 2/16 - 7.5"


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## KingM (Feb 17, 2010)

billski said:


> M,
> I should definitely come visit you.   Everywhere I go, snow precedes me.  Here's my track record so far.
> 
> Magic 1/ - 6"
> ...



Can I comp you a room? 

Except that if you had that power, you'd be in Vancouver right now, earning a consulting fee of $1,000,000 per day.


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## WinnChill (Feb 17, 2010)

KingM said:


> Damn, you got my hopes up again. When am I going to learn?
> 
> (If dentistry isn't sadistic enough for you, try a career in meteorology!)



Fair enough.  I wasn't on the ball today to update it...no excuse.  Sorry man.


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## billski (Feb 17, 2010)

KingM said:


> Except that if you had that power, you'd be in Vancouver right now, earning a consulting fee of $1,000,000 per day.




It started snowing last night in Vancouver.   I heard they are bitching about too much snow on the downhill this morning.


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## KingM (Feb 17, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Fair enough.  I wasn't on the ball today to update it...no excuse.  Sorry man.



Nah, no apology necessary. I'm just wound a little too tight at the moment. If I could even pick up an inch or two of snow, I'd mellow right out.


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## WinnChill (Feb 18, 2010)

KingM said:


> Nah, no apology necessary. I'm just wound a little too tight at the moment. If I could even pick up an inch or two of snow, I'd mellow right out.



It's good you pointed it out--keeps me on my toes.  I hate it when the major storms don't work out but it's really bad when I miss the easy stuff.  

Should be back on track today--winds kicking in, clouds and showers zipping through...should get a little more today with a batch tonight as well.  Will keep tweaking this morning.


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