# Skiing is back!



## skiur (Apr 22, 2020)

https://unofficialnetworks.com/2020/04/22/california-ski-resort-mt-baldy-reopens-for-skiing/


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## sull1102 (Apr 22, 2020)

YES!!!


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## slatham (Apr 22, 2020)

This will be interesting to watch. And while I worry about how this evolves, it is a positive for the industry to have a test case prior to the  offseason to help develop plans for the fall.

More detail

https://winter.mtbaldyresort.com/covid-19-guidlines/


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## Zermatt (Apr 22, 2020)

This is huge if they can pull it off, especially since I would have thought of CA as being one of the more restrictive states right now.


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## gregnye (Apr 22, 2020)

billo said:


> This is huge if they can pull it off, especially since I would have thought of CA as being one of the more restrictive states right now.



Despite the rest of the country hating on California in general, they were pretty smart when it came to this and quarantined earlier so now they can recover faster.

The New England states were late to the game, so now it will drag on further.

Meanwhile if you're in a state ignoring everything like Georgia or Texas, expect the death toll to surpass the highest states 2 weeks from now. Good luck!

Sometimes, restrictions and government intervention make sense. A global pandemic is one of those times.

I am very happy for Mt. Baldy and hope their approach works so that we can try it in New England.


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## p_levert (Apr 22, 2020)

SAM article: https://www.saminfo.com/headline-news/9553-mt-baldy-in-socal-reopening-with-modified-operating-plan

I like it, advanced reservations only.  This is how Killington could open, actually.  Put up a roadblock and only let skiers with advanced tickets come through.  Also, apply heavy restrictions on tailgating.  It could work if state of VT plays along.


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## Zermatt (Apr 22, 2020)

If this is what skiing looks like next winter count me out.


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## thebigo (Apr 22, 2020)

What a strange looking place. If I have this correct, Blue and Green skiers download at the end of the day on a 45 year old, 1200 vert, center pole double with lattice towers and foot rests. Has anyone skied there?


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## VTKilarney (Apr 22, 2020)

If a ski area is going to reopen, this is the way to do it.  It shows that the industry is willing to be responsible.

If this is what skiing will look like next winter, may God have mercy on our souls.


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## jaytrem (Apr 22, 2020)

thebigo said:


> What a strange looking place. If I have this correct, Blue and Green skiers download at the end of the day on a 45 year old, 1200 vert, center pole double with lattice towers and foot rests. Has anyone skied there?



I was supposed to be there last week, rt the week before.  Can't remember at this point.  Missed out on it about 10 years ago too.  Anyway, unless it's a big snow year at the lower elevations, everybody has to download.  Same deal with June.


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## nhskier1969 (Apr 22, 2020)

p_levert said:


> SAM article: https://www.saminfo.com/headline-news/9553-mt-baldy-in-socal-reopening-with-modified-operating-plan
> 
> I like it, advanced reservations only.  This is how Killington could open, actually.  Put up a roadblock and only let skiers with advanced tickets come through.  Also, apply heavy restrictions on tailgating.  It could work if state of VT plays along.



I wonder if they can open.  I can imagine all those Ikon pass holders who still have a fews days on their pass going to Killington


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## gladerider (Apr 22, 2020)

hope it works for them. 

don't know how they will handle the yahoos causing problems. there are always yahoos.


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## thetrailboss (Apr 22, 2020)

I just was reading about that.  So you have a timeslot for skiing and then you are done?


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## thetrailboss (Apr 22, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> I wonder if they can open.  I can imagine all those Ikon pass holders who still have a fews days on their pass going to Killington
> 
> 
> View attachment 26782



And Snowbird.:smash:


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## cdskier (Apr 22, 2020)

thetrailboss said:


> I just was reading about that.  So you have a timeslot for skiing and then you are done?



I'm trying to understand this myself. It seems like you have a time-slot simply to pickup your tickets...and can ski until closing time once you have the tickets. But then they also say season passholders are allowed, but no mention that they need any sort of time-slot or reservation.


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## skiur (Apr 22, 2020)

The interesting thing about it is that California is still under a stay at home order, so how can people go skiing?  How are the employees considered essential and allowed to work?


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## LasersInTheTaiga (Apr 22, 2020)

Hah, I grew up skiing at Baldy. The fact that they are open in late April (covid-19 or not) is kind of amazing. It was a neat place, probably one of my favorites in the LA area, which isn't saying much. I never got to ski at Mt Waterman.


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## ss20 (Apr 22, 2020)

If Killington were to re-open with one person per chair on Superstar that's roughly 55 people on uphill chairs.  When it's bumped up in the spring figure it takes 150% time to go downhill as it does up the hill (roughly 6 minutes up, 9 minutes down).  Downhill capacity would then be 82.  So about 140 people total capacity.  Sell two time slots, 8am-12:30pm and 1pm-5:30.  280 people per day.  You could cap the number of daily tickets sold at 50 for each time slot to make it largely season passholders, who are more likely to live close by (although, to be fair, I'm a K passholder in CT).  

It sounds crazy in writing but everything that's been written in the past 6 weeks has had things I never thought I'd see in my lifetime.


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## Smellytele (Apr 22, 2020)

Also limit it to people who live in the state that the ski area is in. 


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## dblskifanatic (Apr 22, 2020)

LasersInTheTaiga said:


> Hah, I grew up skiing at Baldy. The fact that they are open in late April (covid-19 or not) is kind of amazing. It was a neat place, probably one of my favorites in the LA area, which isn't saying much. I never got to ski at Mt Waterman.



I skied Mt Baldy and Snow Summit when I lived in S. CA.  It was kind of cool driving up high and when back in the valley it was comfortable.  This will be interesting for sure.


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## thebigo (Apr 22, 2020)

jaytrem said:


> I was supposed to be there last week, rt the week before.  Can't remember at this point.  Missed out on it about 10 years ago too.  Anyway, unless it's a big snow year at the lower elevations, everybody has to download.  Same deal with June.



What is the download capacity on that double? Trying to think of a fixed grip I have downloaded, all I can come up with is Locke at 10%.


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## heiusa (Apr 22, 2020)

I lived in Southern California for 10 years. I’ve skied Baldy many times I’ve also skied Kratka Ridge, Mount Waterman and all the areas up in big bear. Baldy is head and shoulders above anything in Southern California,  it’s better than anything in Vermont.  They have some great tree skiing.  The only problem with Baldy is that it needs a lot of natural snow to open.

It was strange leaving my house in shorts, because its 70/80 degrees outside and then getting to baldy and putting on my ski clothing real fast in the parking lot.


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## spring_mountain_high (Apr 23, 2020)

heiusa said:


> I lived in Southern California for 10 years. I’ve skied Baldy many times I’ve also skied Kratka Ridge, Mount Waterman and all the areas up in big bear. Baldy is head and shoulders above anything in Southern California,  it’s better than anything in Vermont.  They have some great tree skiing.  The only problem with Baldy is that it needs a lot of natural snow to open.
> 
> It was strange leaving my house in shorts, because its 70/80 degrees outside and then getting to baldy and putting on my ski clothing real fast in the parking lot.



yup...i went to whittier...always amazing riding in turnbull canyon and seeing all that snow right up there...looked like you could reach out and touch it.  on the 3-4 really clear days after the rainy season, we could see out to catalina.


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## skimagic (Apr 23, 2020)

There's a few photos of Baldy from yesterday half way down this web link. 
https://www.tetongravity.com/forums/showthread.php/331372-SoCal-Kick-Off?p=5964272#post5964272


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## Harvey (Apr 23, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> Also limit it to people who live in the state that the ski area is in.



With no posting on social media.


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## jimmywilson69 (Apr 23, 2020)

that place looks like it would be a lot of fun to ski


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## Riverveteran (Apr 23, 2020)

Why?



Smellytele said:


> Also limit it to people who live in the state that the ski area is in.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## Glenn (Apr 23, 2020)

billo said:


> If this is what skiing looks like next winter count me out.



I'm inclined to think the same. It's a ways out though, so who knows what things will look like.


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## Smellytele (Apr 23, 2020)

Riverveteran said:


> Why?



So people don’t travel from one area to another and back. If killington opened then people from mass, ct, ny, nh and etc would be traveling to and from Vt which wouldn’t be good at first.


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## Riverveteran (Apr 23, 2020)

What about people from those areas with second homes at Killington?



Smellytele said:


> So people don’t travel from one area to another and back. If killington opened then people from mass, ct, ny, nh and etc would be traveling to and from Vt which wouldn’t be good at first.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## slatham (Apr 23, 2020)

skiur said:


> The interesting thing about it is that California is still under a stay at home order, so how can people go skiing?  How are the employees considered essential and allowed to work?



CA made some exceptions, and one of them covered golf courses. Mt Baldy used that as analogous to skiing as long as the same protocols were followed. I think it's up to the local/regional/State authorities to overrule.


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## icecoast1 (Apr 23, 2020)

Riverveteran said:


> What about people from those areas with second homes at Killington?



You should be staying in whatever home you were staying in before the stay at home order was issued.


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## JimG. (Apr 23, 2020)

cdskier said:


> I'm trying to understand this myself. It seems like you have a time-slot simply to pickup your tickets...and can ski until closing time once you have the tickets. But then they also say season passholders are allowed, but no mention that they need any sort of time-slot or reservation.



And now those season passholders have a big advantage.

I can see a "stay in your state to ski" mandate for this coming season which I would not be happy about. Better to know now than in October. Might have to save on that K/Ikon pass for this season who knows what after that.


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## machski (Apr 23, 2020)

So, the Mt. Baldy thing won't work IMO at many resorts.  It would only work at areas with a single point of entry and no slopeside lodging of any type.  Wildcat comes to mind as one where this concept might work in NE.  Whiteface, Waterville, Mt. Abrahm, both Blacks, Sugarbush North may as well.  Beyond those, don't think many would work for this model.

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## icecoast1 (Apr 23, 2020)

JimG. said:


> And now those season passholders have a big advantage.
> 
> I can see a "stay in your state to ski" mandate for this coming season which I would not be happy about. Better to know now than in October. Might have to save on that K/Ikon pass for this season who knows what after that.



Look at what happened with the states turning people away at the borders with the stay at home orders.  It stopped pretty quickly when states started threatening to sue each other.  I doubt we'll see a ski in your own state mandate.


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## slatham (Apr 23, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> You should be staying in whatever home you were staying in before the stay at home order was issued.



This is the correct sentiment right now. But by definition when ski areas get the green light, the situation will be very different. Ski areas will have to develop their plans and protocols assuming non-locals will be showing up.

And the "ski in your state" idea is a non starter. As we saw with states trying to (briefly) limit entry by people from other states, short of a Federal order of Marshall Law, it is unenforceable.


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## Riverveteran (Apr 23, 2020)

Assuming the shelter in place order is still in affect in one's home state.





icecoast1 said:


> You should be staying in whatever home you were staying in before the stay at home order was issued.


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## Smellytele (Apr 23, 2020)

slatham said:


> This is the correct sentiment right now. But by definition when ski areas get the green light, the situation will be very different. Ski areas will have to develop their plans and protocols assuming non-locals will be showing up.
> 
> And the "ski in your state" idea is a non starter. As we saw with states trying to (briefly) limit entry by people from other states, short of a Federal order of Marshall Law, it is unenforceable.



No but VT has electric signs at the border saying if you are coming to the state to stay you need to shelter in place for 2 weeks...


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## kingslug (Apr 23, 2020)

I really hope travel will be possible by next winter.


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## 2Planker (Apr 23, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> No but VT has electric signs at the border saying if you are coming to the state to stay you need to shelter in place for 2 weeks...
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



So do MA, RI and CT.  I'm a HC worker and have to cross RI/MA border in a very rural area.  Usually there's a local town cop stopping all cars entering either state w/ out of state plates.  I've been going thru for 6 weeks now, so they just wave me thru....


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## slatham (Apr 23, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> No but VT has electric signs at the border saying if you are coming to the state to stay you need to shelter in place for 2 weeks...
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



And technically, that is a suggestion - and a very good one if you have not already been in quarantine. But it does not have the power of the law. I've been sheltering at home for 6 weeks. Just crossing the NY/VT  border doesn't negate that. Or put anyone at risk. 

But I have no plans to cross that border until VT further loosens their guidance.


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## dblskifanatic (Apr 23, 2020)

JimG. said:


> And now those season passholders have a big advantage.
> 
> I can see a "stay in your state to ski" mandate for this coming season which I would not be happy about. Better to know now than in October. Might have to save on that K/Ikon pass for this season who knows what after that.



Living Colorado I am ok with ski in your own state!


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## thetrailboss (Apr 23, 2020)

Before folks come out here realize that Salt Lake County is still on lockdown until at least May 15. Maybe longer. Of course if it reopens, and Snowbird decides to re-open, it is going to be a complete shit show.


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## Glenn (Apr 24, 2020)

Sings at the boarders state "urged" not required to quarantine.


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## 2Planker (Apr 24, 2020)

Glenn said:


> Sings at the boarders state "urged" not required to quarantine.



Sorry, REQUIRED in RI for all people coming from out of state, unless work related

https://health.ri.gov/diseases/ncov2019/


[h=3]Who must quarantine due to high risk for developing  COVID-19?[/h] "Any person coming to Rhode Island from another state for a  non-work-related purpose for 14 days after arrival (public health,  public safety, and healthcare workers are exempt).."


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## slatham (Apr 24, 2020)

2Planker said:


> Sorry, REQUIRED in RI for all people coming from out of state, unless work related
> 
> https://health.ri.gov/diseases/ncov2019/
> 
> ...



Glad I have no interest in skiing Yawgoo Valley.......


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## Cat in January (Apr 24, 2020)

This is mostly a marketing stunt and would not be economical at any area if you follow Mount Baldy’s practice.

Similar to how a golf course operates Mt Baldy will check-in a maximum of 4 individuals at 10 minute intervals.


So max of 24 people per hour will be checked in


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## nhskier1969 (Apr 24, 2020)

Sorry, REQUIRED in RI for all people coming from out of state, unless work related

https://health.ri.gov/diseases/ncov2019/


Who must quarantine due to high risk for developing COVID-19?

"Any person coming to Rhode Island from another state for a non-work-related purpose for 14 days after arrival (public health, public safety, and healthcare workers are exempt).."


I could be wrong but they can't stop you from going into a state and then back to your own state.  I believe that is called taking away your liberties.
If government continues this thru May.  People will have cabin fever, they will go out anyway.  There will be bigger and bigger protests against the government.
If the government issued social distance from the Beginning and recommend US citizens to wear mask in high density areas, we wouldn't be in this situation we are currently in.


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## MEtoVTSkier (Apr 24, 2020)

Yep, and if you show up on Block Island, RI by boat, it's 2 weeks mandatory ON YOUR BOAT! You won't be allowed to land/access for 2 weeks.


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## mister moose (Apr 24, 2020)

MEtoVTSkier said:


> Yep, and if you show up on Block Island, RI by boat, it's 2 weeks mandatory ON YOUR BOAT! You won't be allowed to land/access for 2 weeks.


Do you have to fly the Q flag?


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 24, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> I could be wrong but they can't stop you from going into a state and then back to your own state.  I believe that is called taking away your liberties.
> If government continues this thru May.  People will have cabin fever, they will go out anyway.  There will be bigger and bigger protests against the government.



I'd never heard of the governor of RI before this, but she has been one of the most extreme.   Probably the most extreme in America AFAIK.

She may wind up bankrupting little Rhode Island in legal fees before this is over!


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## ss20 (Apr 24, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> If government continues this thru May.  People will have cabin fever, they will go out anyway.  There will be bigger and bigger protests against the government.



It's already happened.  Today broke the "new cases per day" record in the US.  In my personal travels in-town in CT people auto traffic is WAYYYY up compared to 2 weeks ago.  I'd say at 60-75% the normal amount of vehicles on the road.  Two weeks ago it was desolate.  Today the line for the drive-thru for Chick-fil-a was out onto the street.  People just want to get out of the house.   

A couple articles I read had determined that roughly 10% of LA and 20% of NYC tested positive for antibodies already...a slow growth to heard immunity is hellova lot faster than waiting a year for a vaccine.


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## Zermatt (Apr 25, 2020)

ss20 said:


> It's already happened.  Today broke the "new cases per day" record in the US.  In my personal travels in-town in CT people auto traffic is WAYYYY up compared to 2 weeks ago.  I'd say at 60-75% the normal amount of vehicles on the road.  Two weeks ago it was desolate.  Today the line for the drive-thru for Chick-fil-a was out onto the street.  People just want to get out of the house.
> 
> A couple articles I read had determined that roughly 10% of LA and 20% of NYC tested positive for antibodies already...a slow growth to heard immunity is hellova lot faster than waiting a year for a vaccine.



Just a little statistics lesson.  New cases per day doesn't mean anything if it only goes up because more tests are being done. It is the % positive rate that matters.  If that rate stays the same it means you are only capturing more cases because you are doing more testing (not because more people are sick).


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## nhskier1969 (Apr 25, 2020)

ss20 said:


> It's already happened.  Today broke the "new cases per day" record in the US.  In my personal travels in-town in CT people auto traffic is WAYYYY up compared to 2 weeks ago.  I'd say at 60-75% the normal amount of vehicles on the road.  Two weeks ago it was desolate.  Today the line for the drive-thru for Chick-fil-a was out onto the street.  People just want to get out of the house.
> 
> A couple articles I read had determined that roughly 10% of LA and 20% of NYC tested positive for antibodies already...a slow growth to heard immunity is hellova lot faster than waiting a year for a vaccine.



+1

I was reading in the Harvard medical journal.  They were saying 30-55 times more people have or had coronavirus and didn't show any symptoms.  They feel when all said in done the mortality rate will be closer to .1% and the flu is .06%.
Another interesting fact they brought up.  children under 12 are effected more with the Flu than conaronavirus. Where the coronavirus effects more old and doesn't affect the young like the Flu.
Lastly, Boston as of Wednesday only 40% of the beds that Boston Hospitals have for Coronavirus symptoms were filled.


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## ss20 (Apr 25, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> +1
> 
> I was reading in the Harvard medical journal.  They were saying 30-55 times more people have or had coronavirus and didn't show any symptoms.  They feel when all said in done the mortality rate will be closer to .1% and the flu is .06%.
> Another interesting fact they brought up.  children under 12 are effected more with the Flu than conaronavirus. Where the coronavirus effects more old and doesn't affect the young like the Flu.
> Lastly, Boston as of Wednesday only 40% of the beds that Boston Hospitals have for Coronavirus symptoms were filled.



Yes that's another article I read.  We're going to be at 1 million confirmed cases in the US by Monday.  If the reality is 30-55 million people have had this already and are immune to it then we're already a significant portion of the way towards herd immunity.  

I'm interested to see how people will look back at this in the future.  Social distancing was effective in that it slowed the spread to let hospitals develop their resources (evident now by stories of hospitals operating at a fraction of their capacity).  It was not effective in stopping the chain of transmission, which, I'm sure a lot of people _thought_ would happen with all the "oh we'll be back to normal in 6 weeks!" comments".  

We really just need to let this thing run it's course.  Don't be irresponsible- concerts, amusement parks, arenas, etc are probably off limits for a while still but daily activities where one person may infect a few people (not hundreds) should be acceptable.  This thing spreads wayyyy too easily for anyone to think we're going to get rid of it with the measures we're taking now.  China literally locked people in their houses in Wuhan- no autos, no mass transit, no one allowed in/out of the city, no going out for exercise- and they still couldn't totally stop it.


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## mbedle (Apr 25, 2020)

Let's just hope that immunity occurs and last. At this point, there is no proof that immunity occurs with Covid-19.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 25, 2020)

mbedle said:


> Let's just hope that immunity occurs and last. *At this point, there is no proof that immunity occurs with Covid-19.*



While that's technically true, it is highly likely that there is an immune response via memory T-cells.  I feel like they're needlessly giving the general public the worst case scenario at virtually every turn of this pandemic & scaring people, or at least paralyzing them with negative speculative uncertainty. 

I think it's logical to start with SARS-Cov for a guesstimate on COVID19 immunity duration, and that we know is about 3 years, which is actually pretty bad.  There are many viruses which post-infection produce an antigen response > the life of a human being.  That said, I consider this a non-issue, because I'm confident:  A) There will be a duration of immunity B) There will be a vaccine much sooner than immune duration.


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## dblskifanatic (Apr 25, 2020)

Not looking good for A Basin since they are telling everyone to stay out of the mountains until May 30th!


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## Dickc (Apr 25, 2020)

ss20 said:


> It's already happened.  Today broke the "new cases per day" record in the US.  In my personal travels in-town in CT people auto traffic is WAYYYY up compared to 2 weeks ago.  I'd say at 60-75% the normal amount of vehicles on the road.  Two weeks ago it was desolate.  Today the line for the drive-thru for Chick-fil-a was out onto the street.  People just want to get out of the house.
> 
> A couple articles I read had determined that roughly 10% of LA and 20% of NYC tested positive for antibodies already...a slow growth to heard immunity is hellova lot faster than waiting a year for a vaccine.



The news at about noon time reported that one of the major labs had a reporting glitch and they released results yesterday that make up for missed cases so the jump was more or less an aberration.  Quest Diagnostics was the culprit


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 25, 2020)

ss20 said:


> *I'd say at 60-75% the normal amount of vehicles on the road.  Two weeks ago it was desolate.*  Today the line for the drive-thru for Chick-fil-a was out onto the street.  People just want to get out of the house.



Last Friday when I was last out in public, I noticed more people out-and-about versus 13 days prior, which was the last time I'd been in public at that time.   Today walking on my back road I noticed more cars than at any time in the last 6 weeks of quarantine.  Totally speculative as are your comments above, but it makes me wonder if people are starting to break.


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## icecoast1 (Apr 25, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Last Friday when I was last out in public, I noticed more people out-and-about versus 13 days prior, which was the last time I'd been in public at that time.   Today walking on my back road I noticed more cars than at any time in the last 6 weeks of quarantine.  Totally speculative as are your comments above, but it makes me wonder if people are starting to break.



I've seen similar things as well.  The weather is starting to get nice and people are sick of being inside


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## chuckstah (Apr 25, 2020)

I didn't notice much, if any increased  car traffic today, but there was a giant shitload of motorcycles out. I think I passed more bikes than cars in rural NH. That, and people walking on the streets everywhere. And bicycles.  People are out of their dens for sure.  The food store was, however, empty. 

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## dblskifanatic (Apr 25, 2020)

I did mention this in another thread.  We were out and about our selves - went and did a short hike, got food and drove around and traffic was back to feeling normal.  We drove by a Target and the lot was pretty full,  our grocery store limits the number of people and there was a line along the building.  Where we went hiking, two weeks ago there were maybe ten cars and to day the lower lot was full and another dozen in the upper lot.  The trails were not crowded and we stepped aside for one family.  The open field parks ha people playing frisbee, tossing the ball with their dogs, family picnics etc.  totally different ball game today vs two weeks ago.  Heck we reserved a tee time for Sunday and had to book it four days ago and got the last tee of time.  People are tired of it.


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## Smellytele (Apr 25, 2020)

chuckstah said:


> I didn't notice much, if any increased  car traffic today, but there was a giant shitload of motorcycles out. I think I passed more bikes than cars in rural NH. That, and people walking on the streets everywhere. And bicycles.  People are out of their dens for sure.  The food store was, however, empty.
> 
> Sent from my moto e5 cruise using AlpineZone mobile app



Agree a shitload of motorcycles today in NH


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 25, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> While that's technically true*, it is highly likely that there is an immune response via memory T-cells.  I feel like they're needlessly giving the general public the worst case scenario at virtually every turn of this pandemic & scaring people*, or at least paralyzing them with negative speculative uncertainty.
> 
> I think it's logical to start with SARS-Cov for a guesstimate on COVID19 immunity duration, and that we know is about 3 years, which is actually pretty bad.  There are many viruses which post-infection produce an antigen response > the life of a human being.  That said, I consider this a non-issue, because I'm confident:  A) There will be a duration of immunity B) There will be a vaccine much sooner than immune duration.



So this is timely.

*This morning* the WHO tweeted out, _"There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection"_.   

*About 5 hours ago* they deleted that tweet, and then replaced it with, _"We expect that most people who are infected with COVID19 will develop an antibody response that will provide some level of protection."
_

I cannot stress enough how completely disparate those two tweets are.  That organization is a dumpster fire, and I'll leave it to the reader to construct a logical reason for the above 2 tweets, mere hours apart.  Just keep in mind, these people are literally medical experts.


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## MEtoVTSkier (Apr 26, 2020)

mister moose said:


> Do you have to fly the Q flag?





> If the boat is in quarantine, it is required to fly a quarantine flag.



Block Island Times


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## Zermatt (Apr 26, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> So this is timely.
> 
> *This morning* the WHO tweeted out, _"There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection"_.
> 
> ...



Of course I saw the first headline all over the news yesterday, will the second make rounds as well?

Add that to the greatest hits from the WHO...including "no evidence of human to human transmission" and "we do not recommend masks for individuals."

Of course you will have some level of protection....how else did you beat the virus in the first place?


----------



## Not Sure (Apr 26, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> So this is timely.
> 
> *This morning* the WHO tweeted out, _"There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection"_.
> 
> ...




https://www.socialmediatoday.com/ne...ion-to-remove-covid-19-misinformation/576577/

So by Youtubes own policy there going to remove the WHO ?


----------



## slatham (Apr 26, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> So this is timely.
> 
> *This morning* the WHO tweeted out, _"There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection"_.
> 
> ...



The FACT is those two statements are true - there is no EVIDENCE (yet) that anitibodies protect from further infection. It is also true that epidemiologist EXPECT people who had the virus will have antibodies that protect them from a 2nd infection for period of time.

BUT it is beyond poor communication, actually irresponsible, for them to tweet one, then take it down, and tweet the other. How about one, comprehensive tweet "While is not evidence yet, we expect......" I mean its the World Health Organization, not some (nameless) political hack!

Your average snow reporter could have done better!


----------



## 1dog (Apr 26, 2020)

Try finding real numbers for this- its almost impossible. 

The comorbidity and the sometimes false counts are abundant - some state -forgot where - just reduced by 200 a one day count of deaths because there were other factors the docs admitted were the cause.


Of course it is serious, but I'm still looking at Sweden and the USC and Standford studies that state there is or could be 55-85 X the actual infection rates in LA and Santa Clara County. A good thing. 

Media nowhere that I've seen has talked about the over abundance of hospitals that were closed ( Javits closed yet?) or the Comfort or other one that were not needed? We are going to hear that it was better to over-prepare than under prepare - a convenient out for those who espouse lockdowns at any cost.

I wish Trump wold just shut up but keep making the decisions on WHO, on opening, on pretty much most of the subjects he is tackling with the administration. 

But hey, thats never going to change and sometimes I think he uses his jibberish as a distraction while real stuff happens in background. That is how he won a lot of victories in last 3+years.

Paying this debt - along with all the other debt is probably the worst of problems long term. Printing money rarely works, if ever. 

And using this reason to bail out states with out-of-control legacy costs is a massive ruse to cover up their fiscal irresponsibilties.

I'm just hoping to get to some backcountry skiing before its all gone.


----------



## p_levert (Apr 26, 2020)

slatham said:


> The FACT is those two statements are true - there is no EVIDENCE (yet) that anitibodies protect from further infection. It is also true that epidemiologist EXPECT people who had the virus will have antibodies that protect them from a 2nd infection for period of time.
> 
> BUT it is beyond poor communication, actually irresponsible, for them to tweet one, then take it down, and tweet the other. How about one, comprehensive tweet "While is not evidence yet, we expect......" I mean its the World Health Organization, not some (nameless) political hack!
> 
> Your average snow reporter could have done better!



Man, couldn't agree more.  FYI, here's the WHO corrective tweet:

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405

To WHO's credit, they are acknowledging that input from others caused them to change the tweet.  On the other hand, CNN was making a big deal about the "no proof" tweet yesterday.  Yet I don't see any mention on their website about the correction, which is very lame.


----------



## p_levert (Apr 26, 2020)

Among others, WHO thanked Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com): https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160943451459591


----------



## dblskifanatic (Apr 26, 2020)

1dog said:


> Try finding real numbers for this- its almost impossible.
> 
> The comorbidity and the sometimes false counts are abundant - some state -forgot where - just reduced by 200 a one day count of deaths because there were other factors the docs admitted were the cause.
> 
> ...



Reading this makes me furious - not because of your points, but I just feel like every large educational institution, health organization and government health services around the world are all throwing darts.  I am sure there is science being applied and statistical theory as well but the information is all over the map!  Some numbers are to low, some are too high because they counted other deaths that are unrelated, Colorado had 29 deaths that were duplicates so the count went backwards and others.

I also read that Southern California beaches will open with strict provisions. No laying on the beach and you must wear a face mask.  The whole face mask this is out of control.  I get having them on in stores or at work places even.  But I see people driving with them on.  We hiked yesterday and no one was even within 50 feet from each other besides families yet people had face masks on.  I see people jogging or walking with face masks  I think people think the air is saturated with it.

In other news a convict was released from jail because of Covid and got reconvicted on rape charges.  Releasing criminals is a great idea.  Yes I know these are probably offenders that are in for short jail terms but .....

This whole mess is absurd and I get why people are protesting and getting impatient!




Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## BenedictGomez (Apr 26, 2020)

slatham said:


> The FACT is those two statements are true - there is no EVIDENCE (yet) that anitibodies protect from further infection. It is also true that epidemiologist EXPECT people who had the virus will have antibodies that protect them from a 2nd infection for period of time.
> 
> BUT it is beyond poor communication, actually irresponsible, for them to tweet one, then take it down, and tweet the other. How about one, comprehensive tweet "While is not evidence yet, we expect......" I mean its the World Health Organization, not some (nameless) political hack!
> 
> Your average snow reporter could have done better!



My post in this thread yesterday was literally more comprehensive & accurate than the World Health Organization's tweet.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Apr 26, 2020)

p_levert said:


> *CNN was making a big deal about the "no proof" tweet yesterday.  Yet I don't see any mention on their website about the correction*, which is very lame.



How positively shocking (sarcasm).



p_levert said:


> Among others, WHO thanked Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com):



Nate Silver's not really helping either.  Smart guy, a wiz with data, but it's been obvious at several points during this pandemic that he has absolutely no healthcare knowledge.   Just yesterday he tweeted about how COVID19 one-day deaths reached an all-time high in America, simply because he wasn't aware that DGX had a reporting problem & lumped myriad unreported deaths spread out the previous 12 days into yesterday's tally.


----------



## 1dog (Apr 27, 2020)

dblskifanatic said:


> Reading this makes me furious - not because of your points, but I just feel like every large educational institution, health organization and government health services around the world are all throwing darts.  I am sure there is science being applied and statistical theory as well but the information is all over the map!  Some numbers are to low, some are too high because they counted other deaths that are unrelated, Colorado had 29 deaths that were duplicates so the count went backwards and others.
> 
> I also read that Southern California beaches will open with strict provisions. No laying on the beach and you must wear a face mask.  The whole face mask this is out of control.  I get having them on in stores or at work places even.  But I see people driving with them on.  We hiked yesterday and no one was even within 50 feet from each other besides families yet people had face masks on.  I see people jogging or walking with face masks  I think people think the air is saturated with it.
> 
> ...



Try this on for size - some on here have reiterated the theme - but this is from the front lines - a- political and to me, a complete novice on the subject, makes eminent sense.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/a-report-from-the-front-lines.php


----------



## drjeff (Apr 27, 2020)

dblskifanatic said:


> Reading this makes me furious - not because of your points, but I just feel like every large educational institution, health organization and government health services around the world are all throwing darts.  I am sure there is science being applied and statistical theory as well but the information is all over the map!  Some numbers are to low, some are too high because they counted other deaths that are unrelated, Colorado had 29 deaths that were duplicates so the count went backwards and others.
> 
> I also read that Southern California beaches will open with strict provisions. No laying on the beach and you must wear a face mask.  The whole face mask this is out of control.  I get having them on in stores or at work places even.  But I see people driving with them on.  We hiked yesterday and no one was even within 50 feet from each other besides families yet people had face masks on.  I see people jogging or walking with face masks  I think people think the air is saturated with it.
> 
> ...



One thing that this entire COVID-19 situation has made quite apparent to me, is that something that so many view as a plus of modern society, and that is in essence that fact that we have a society were immediate gratification in essence is what we expect (from on-demand media to online shopping with next day or even in some cases same day delivery, etc, etc, etc) , in some cases isn't a plus, let a alone an option, and many of us either can't comprehend or accept that.

When so many in society have seemed to have lost the ability to be patient, which then often enables one to make the proper choice after you've had some time to digest the information in front of you, rather than feel like you have to react that second, and chances are that you're instantaneous reaction may prove to not be the correct one, and then additionally not have the ability to acknowledge that ones first reaction may have been incorrect, you've got a big problem in society. That certainly isn't helping out in multiple areas right now.


----------



## deadheadskier (Apr 28, 2020)

1dog said:


> Try this on for size - some on here have reiterated the theme - but this is from the front lines - a- political and to me, a complete novice on the subject, makes eminent sense.
> 
> https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/a-report-from-the-front-lines.php


Doesn't make eminent sense to the American College of Emergency Physicians.  They strongly condemn the statements of these doctors. Nevermind that one of the doctors lied about the position of the county department of health.  

My guess on these two Docs in a Box is that their Urgent Care business has taken a financial hit, their commentary is mostly self serving and they figure their MD titles will result in people trusting them.  They shouldn't 

https://www.acep.org/corona/COVID-1...zqaOQfUCbZHwp0ZfaJhbR_3buq_rhZIu1yIjdFy0FFGfM

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## thetrailboss (Apr 28, 2020)

1dog said:


> Try this on for size - some on here have reiterated the theme - but this is from the front lines - a- political and to me, a complete novice on the subject, makes eminent sense.
> 
> https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/a-report-from-the-front-lines.php



Great, but what does this have to do with the topic--i.e. what ski resorts are doing in response to the pandemic?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Apr 28, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> *They strongly condemn the statements of these doctors.*



I didnt see the video before it was taken down, what were they saying/suggesting?


----------



## Not Sure (Apr 28, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> I didnt see the video before it was taken down, what were they saying/suggesting?



I watched the Videos my takeaways were . 1 Isolate the vulnerable not society as a whole 2. Test , test ,test. 3. Question,Big business is open why are small businesses closed? 

For example in Pa. ( Not Ca.)there is a local company that sell Safes. They can sell to commercial customers but not retail? 
Lots of arbitrary decisions going on that make no sense .


----------



## deadheadskier (Apr 28, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> I didnt see the video before it was taken down, what were they saying/suggesting?


Misrepresented a bunch of data to basically say Covid is no more deadly than the flu and social distancing had no benefit on slowing the spread.  A bunch of other really weird stuff in there to.  Said he's from Sweden, then five minutes later said he was from Norway.



Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## ScottySkis (Apr 28, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> Misrepresented a bunch of data to basically say Covid is no more deadly than the flu and social distancing had no benefit on slowing the spread.  A bunch of other really weird stuff in there to.  Said he's from Sweden, then five minutes later said he was from Norway.
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app



Can u clean up the posts on Plaaty thread that are off skiing and entered politics again
Its ridiculously that this keeps happening
Thanks


----------



## Not Sure (Apr 28, 2020)

Scotty ,I don't want anyone to get sick but we need to be able to have conversations about the virus to arrive at a solutions. If people aren't allowed to talk to each other because Youtube bans videos that may or may not be helpful ,our country is in trouble.  I don't think health is politics as everyone has a stake in it. Ironically if they had done nothing these guys would not be famous, this is how conspiracy theories start. 
Maybe there ideas are incorrect but lets at least talk about it , I don't think it's to much to ask . 
No offense intended to anyone ...except Youtube.


----------



## Edd (Apr 28, 2020)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> If people aren't allowed to talk to each other because Youtube bans videos that may or may not be helpful ,our country is in trouble.



Wow.


----------



## nhskier1969 (Apr 28, 2020)

drjeff said:


> One thing that this entire COVID-19 situation has made quite apparent to me, is that something that so many view as a plus of modern society, and that is in essence that fact that we have a society were immediate gratification in essence is what we expect (from on-demand media to online shopping with next day or even in some cases same day delivery, etc, etc, etc) , in some cases isn't a plus, let a alone an option, and many of us either can't comprehend or accept that.
> 
> When so many in society have seemed to have lost the ability to be patient, which then often enables one to make the proper choice after you've had some time to digest the information in front of you, rather than feel like you have to react that second, and chances are that you're instantaneous reaction may prove to not be the correct one, and then additionally not have the ability to acknowledge that ones first reaction may have been incorrect, you've got a big problem in society. That certainly isn't helping out in multiple areas right now.



Once everyone gets back to work, all it's going to do is spread again.  There are many more people out there that had or have it but don't even know.  I ready a couple of places about Herd Immunity.  We pretty much have the entire New England on a lock down.  It is going to effect business and the government financially for many many years.  Open back up the economy and let nature take its course. Mass has been shelter in place for over a month now and the small business are taking a beating.


----------



## Not Sure (Apr 28, 2020)

Edd said:


> Wow.



Ok maybe a bit hyperbolic but look at the graph in the article . Between Facebook and Youtube filtering the news I'd say 64% is  a big deal . 

https://www.socialmediatoday.com/ne...ion-to-remove-covid-19-misinformation/576577/


Amendment I
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances


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## icecoast1 (Apr 28, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> Misrepresented a bunch of data to basically say Covid is no more deadly than the flu and social distancing had no benefit on slowing the spread.  A bunch of other really weird stuff in there to.  Said he's from Sweden, then five minutes later said he was from Norway.
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app




Didnt see the video in question.  But the comparison to flu death rate came from antibody tests in recent weeks which have indicated many more people have had the virus and been asymptomatic that we dont know about which drastically lowers the death rate.  This was obvious all along since we were only testing the worst of cases but now the data is starting to support that.

 Seems like a discussion worth having considering we shut our whole country down based on models that predicted 3-4 percent death rates and millions dead


----------



## BenedictGomez (Apr 28, 2020)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> I watched the Videos my takeaways were . 1 Isolate the vulnerable not society as a whole 2. Test , test ,test. 3. Question,Big business is open why are small businesses closed?
> 
> For example in Pa. ( Not Ca.)there is a local company that sell Safes. They can sell to commercial customers but not retail?
> Lots of arbitrary decisions going on that make no sense .



That all sounds reasonable to me.  Hell, #1 was the idea I said we should go with, prior to the entire nation being locked-down.



deadheadskier said:


> Misrepresented a bunch of data to basically say Covid is no more deadly than the flu and social distancing had no benefit on slowing the spread.



On the first point, from a C.F.R. standpoint it is quite possible, if not increasingly likely that perhaps that is in fact true, but if people dont understand the math involved, all they hear is, "coronavirus is less deadly than flu".   The second point is clearly false.  That said, there have been some interesting analysis lately suggesting lockdowns might not be as effective as previously thought, but "lockdowns" and social distancing should not be conflated.  In other words, while social distancing clearly has a benefit, the jury is still out on the necessity of extreme lockdown as a forced form of social distancing.


----------



## dblskifanatic (Apr 28, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> Once everyone gets back to work, all it's going to do is spread again.  There are many more people out there that had or have it but don't even know.  I ready a couple of places about Herd Immunity.  We pretty much have the entire New England on a lock down.  It is going to effect business and the government financially for many many years.  Open back up the economy and let nature take its course. Mass has been shelter in place for over a month now and the small business are taking a beating.



So there are several pharmacies and now King Sooper (grocery) that are starting to do broader testing but. ..... to qualify for testing you need to show symptoms.  What?  What about finding those that are asymptomatic!


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## icecoast1 (Apr 28, 2020)

dblskifanatic said:


> So there are several pharmacies and now King Sooper (grocery) that are starting to do broader testing but. ..... to qualify for testing you need to show symptoms.  What?  What about finding those that are asymptomatic!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



They dont have the testing capacity to test literally everybody in town because somebody sneezed and wants to see if they have covid.


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## dblskifanatic (Apr 28, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> They dont have the testing capacity to test literally everybody in town because somebody sneezed and wants to see if they have covid.



But if there are asymptotic people around then all the testing in the world will not amount to much since those individuals will be infecting others blindly.

Speaking testing - test over a long period of time means that someone tested yesterday could now have it today.  So testing needs to be broad and within a short window which will never happen. 


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## BenedictGomez (Apr 28, 2020)

dblskifanatic said:


> But* if there are asymptotic people around then all the testing in the world will not amount to much *since those individuals will be infecting others blindly.



Which is partially why, testing, testing, testing, is a media-driven lie.  Testing is important early on for geographical identification, and it's important during to confirm and/or rule-out illness, but at this point where we're at now it's way overblown.  

On the other hand, I would like to see a large geographical 50 state study with randomized testing in an attempt to pinpoint the true asymptomatic case percentage.


----------



## Dickc (Apr 29, 2020)

The only testing I think matters is antibody testing.  
We also need to weed out the non accurate tests.  Some of these tests are wrong up to 10% which is way too high.  What we need to do is ASSUME those with antibodies are immune for some period of time, hopefully long enough for a vaccine to be approved and put into production.  Once we have enough immune people, we can return to mostly normal for the working age crowd.  Us retired folks will need to isolate or risk getting and dying of it.  Not ideal, but I’m afraid that is the deal we will find ourselves having.


----------



## Zermatt (Apr 29, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Which is partially why, testing, testing, testing, is a media-driven lie.  Testing is important early on for geographical identification, and it's important during to confirm and/or rule-out illness, but at this point where we're at now it's way overblown.
> 
> On the other hand, I would like to see a large geographical 50 state study with randomized testing in an attempt to pinpoint the true asymptomatic case percentage.



Nobody is picking up on the other way forward as well that does not involve a vaccine.

In less then a month we will likely have multiple clinically proven effective treatments (we could have one in days), that will greatly reduce the number of severe infections and deaths.  So people will still get sick.  Most will have no symptoms, the next largest group will have mild to moderate symptoms and recover on their own.  A very small group will have moderate to severe symptoms and will be treated.  An even smaller group will continue to die.


----------



## p_levert (Apr 29, 2020)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> If people aren't allowed to talk to each other because Youtube bans videos that may or may not be helpful ,our country is in trouble.



I don't think that's our problem.  Our problem is *personalization* by big tech companies.  When you go to youtube and search on a few things, their algorithms are trying to identify your age, sex and political preferences.  And if they think you're a MAGA, well, you're going to see a lot of right wing stuff.  If you're identified as a Lib, you'll get a whole different set of things presented to you.  These companies only care about *engagement* (their term), meaning that they want you to stay on their site as long as possible.  For the most part, they don't give a sh*t about what this does to the social fabric of our nation.

So don't get news from any social media site!  It's always manipulated.


----------



## mbedle (Apr 29, 2020)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Ok maybe a bit hyperbolic but look at the graph in the article . Between Facebook and Youtube filtering the news I'd say 64% is  a big deal .
> 
> https://www.socialmediatoday.com/ne...ion-to-remove-covid-19-misinformation/576577/
> 
> ...



We've reached an all time low in society if those percents referenced in that article are correct. Who the hell gets their news from Facebook or YouTube??? How the hell do you get news on Facebook? I don't think I have ever seen a news article on Facebook.


----------



## Not Sure (Apr 29, 2020)

mbedle said:


> We've reached an all time low in society if those percents referenced in that article are correct. Who the hell gets their news from Facebook or YouTube??? How the hell do you get news on Facebook? I don't think I have ever seen a news article on Facebook.



They don’t produce the news , yes although they do filter it. 

The value in Youtube is the guy/girl with a camera cell phone posting what actually happened. Yes there’s usually a bit missing in the beginning but when you see someones words and facial expressions it’s tough sell for “Reporters “ to spin .


----------



## BenedictGomez (Apr 29, 2020)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> *The value in Youtube is the guy/girl with a camera cell phone posting what actually happened.* Yes there’s usually a bit missing in the beginning but when you see someones words and facial expressions it’s tough sell for “Reporters “ to spin .



I think TWTR's better for that.    What I value in Youtube is non-famous people who have all sorts of great channels for whatever topics they're expert in, woodworking, teaching music lessons, cooking, firearms knowledge, product reviews, etc...   That said, TWTR's recent censorship decisions scare the **** out of me, and now it seems Youtube's jumping on-board that train as well sadly.


----------



## icecoast1 (Apr 29, 2020)

mbedle said:


> We've reached an all time low in society if those percents referenced in that article are correct. Who the hell gets their news from Facebook or YouTube??? How the hell do you get news on Facebook? I don't think I have ever seen a news article on Facebook.



I've been using Facebook for weeks as a form of news.  Right now its the easiest way to watch Cuomos daily briefings.  I was also using it to see the White House briefings as well when I couldn't see them live.  YouTube is also pretty handy for following news, etc if you can't see things live, providing they dont decide to censor things


----------



## kingslug (Apr 30, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> I think TWTR's better for that.    What I value in Youtube is non-famous people who have all sorts of great channels for whatever topics they're expert in, woodworking, teaching music lessons, cooking, firearms knowledge, product reviews, etc...   That said, TWTR's recent censorship decisions scare the **** out of me, and now it seems Youtube's jumping on-board that train as well sadly.



Ive been watching hundreds of youtube vids on..everything. I now feel I can do absolutely everything...with totally nothing..


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## drjeff (Apr 30, 2020)

kingslug said:


> Ive been watching hundreds of youtube vids on..everything. I now feel I can do absolutely everything...with totally nothing..



There's a couple of 50 foot plus tall, 12" plus diameter at the base trees in my yard at home that my wife has decided that it's time for them to go so that some of the new planting beds she's installed over the last few weeks can get more sunlight.  I told her that I just wasn't comfortable with taking down trees that big as there are numerous things in our yard (the house, the fence around our pool, the fence around my next door neighbors pool) that the trees could drop on should they not fall in the direction that I would like to happen.  She literally told me to just go watch a youtube video on cutting down trees.... That's a hard no from me, and a call to the local tree service guys!!  I know what my limits are, regardless of how much free time I have on my hands these days!! :wink::wink::wink:


----------



## Not Sure (Apr 30, 2020)

Rent one of these !
https://www.jlg.com/en/equipment/engine-powered-boom-lifts/articulating/450aj--new

Buy a pole chainsaw . 
https://www.https://www.jlg.com/en/...VEJ6fCh2rBwgcEAQYAiABEgJHvfD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

I took down a couple 60' trees and actually had a blast . Limb it out first and take the trunk down in 3' pieces .


----------



## BenedictGomez (Apr 30, 2020)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Buy a pole chainsaw .




I have one of those multitasker units from Remington (Ryobi & a few others make them too) where you have a gas engine, and different tools attach to it.  I have the pole chainsaw, soil tiller, weedwacker, and leaf blower, but there are a bunch of other attachments like edgers & various hedge cutters you can buy for it too.  Love it.


----------



## icecoast1 (Apr 30, 2020)

drjeff said:


> There's a couple of 50 foot plus tall, 12" plus diameter at the base trees in my yard at home that my wife has decided that it's time for them to go so that some of the new planting beds she's installed over the last few weeks can get more sunlight.  I told her that I just wasn't comfortable with taking down trees that big as there are numerous things in our yard (the house, the fence around our pool, the fence around my next door neighbors pool) that the trees could drop on should they not fall in the direction that I would like to happen.  She literally told me to just go watch a youtube video on cutting down trees.... That's a hard no from me, and a call to the local tree service guys!!  I know what my limits are, regardless of how much free time I have on my hands these days!! :wink::wink::wink:




Not only that, it can also be deadly if you don't know what you're doing and the tree falls the wrong way and crushes you, or your notch is cut wrong and it kicks back and knocks you uncounscious


----------



## slatham (Apr 30, 2020)

This just came out in storm skiing journal:

"I’ve been involved in the writing of enough press releases to know that more people are involved in drafting and approving them than were in the construction of the Panama Canal. Every word is scrutinized. Which is why this sentence toward the bottom of the press release is so interesting:

“Following the March 20 indefinite extension of operation suspensions at Killington and season closure at Pico, Killington and Pico have taken a number of actions in support of staff, guests and the community, and to help ensure the safety of all.”

In other words, Killington has not yet officially closed. And with the mountain sitting untouched for the past seven weeks, coverage still looks deep, with the glacier still humping off of Superstar and the panoramic Mountain View cam still showing wall-to-wall coverage. Could Killington be angling for a heroic end-of-season cavalry ride?"


----------



## machski (Apr 30, 2020)

Ahh, no.  Klington likely worded it as suspended ops more towards their Beast365 members than anything as that is a year round access for all season activities.  And EVERYTHING is suspended, not just skiing.  No way they ski again this current extended season, but Beast365 passholders wi get summer activities back I am sure at some point and to some extent.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## cdskier (Apr 30, 2020)

The full text of the e-mail to K passholders that skiur posted in the season pass consideration thread included this line at the very end: "We remain hopeful to be able to ski and ride on Superstar again this spring." You don't really need to waste time trying to interpret what they meant by "indefinite extension of operations suspension" when you have it already clearly spelled out that they still want to re-open. Personally I still say it is not overly likely...


----------



## BenedictGomez (Apr 30, 2020)

Vermont is one of the handful of states taking COVID19 overly conservative to the point they've basically turned it up to 11 from a government restriction standpoint.  I would argue Vermont has been as strict or more strict than New Jersey, and unlike Vermont, people are actually dying here, so I dont see how Killington's opening unless Vermont pulls a 180.  Even if they did, were I Killington I'd have no bid for losing money at the tail-end of a pandemic just to reopen skiing for literally a few days.


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## machski (Apr 30, 2020)

cdskier said:


> The full text of the e-mail to K passholders that skiur posted in the season pass consideration thread included this line at the very end: "We remain hopeful to be able to ski and ride on Superstar again this spring." You don't really need to waste time trying to interpret what they meant by "indefinite extension of operations suspension" when you have it already clearly spelled out that they still want to re-open. Personally I still say it is not overly likely...


No way in hell they will be able to reopen to ski.  Sure, there is plenty of snow on Superstar and for now, probably Bitter/Skyelark and Ovation in the least.  But how would they social distance it?  They aren't talking the terrain acreage that Mt. Baldy has open, nor the limiting up and downhill access double chair they are using.  It would be ugly.  What, 50 skiers an hour maybe?  perhaps 100 with the terrain I listed above?  And how, you'd get an hour then your RFID would void you from the gate for the next hours groupings?  Sorry, just don't see it happening.  

VT is not going to go totally restriction free on May 15th, I see more like Maine.  Maine is stay at home through end of May, a few things can open in May but not restaurants.  Then June 1st (date can change) restaurants can reopen along with lodging but out of staters have to complete 14 day Quarantines before lodging or going in public once they enter Maine (so in otherwords, if you intent to go there for a week vacation, don't bother) for the BALANCE OF THE SUMMER!    And still no groups of more than 10.  If VT goes this way, no way Killington will be able to operate skiing under those type restrictions.

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## cdskier (Apr 30, 2020)

machski said:


> No way in hell they will be able to reopen to ski.  Sure, there is plenty of snow on Superstar and for now, probably Bitter/Skyelark and Ovation in the least.  But how would they social distance it?  They aren't talking the terrain acreage that Mt. Baldy has open, nor the limiting up and downhill access double chair they are using.  It would be ugly.  What, 50 skiers an hour maybe?  perhaps 100 with the terrain I listed above?  And how, you'd get an hour then your RFID would void you from the gate for the next hours groupings?  Sorry, just don't see it happening.



I agree. I was surprised that they point blank said they still hope to reopen. Either they're a bit delusional with thinking things would open up enough to even allow it AND that they'd be able to somehow pull it off logistically, or they really know they have no chance of reopening and put that in there purely from a PR perspective to show their passholders "look, we're still trying! We're still the Beast!"


----------



## skiur (Apr 30, 2020)

cdskier said:


> I agree. I was surprised that they point blank said they still hope to reopen. Either they're a bit delusional with thinking things would open up enough to even allow it AND that they'd be able to somehow pull it off logistically, or they really know they have no chance of reopening and put that in there purely from a PR perspective to show their passholders "look, we're still trying! We're still the Beast!"



Agreed, they know they won't reopen this spring but admitting that publicly is not very beastly!


----------



## ss20 (Apr 30, 2020)

I'm still not convinced with certainty Killington is done.  I acknowledge that the likely scenario is they stay closed.  

Here in CT the governor announced May 20 re-opening of retail and the outdoor seating areas of restaurants and bars.  A chairlift is an outdoor seating area, and it's moving...


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## Smellytele (May 1, 2020)

ss20 said:


> I'm still not convinced with certainty Killington is done.  I acknowledge that the likely scenario is they stay closed.
> 
> Here in CT the governor announced May 20 re-opening of retail and the outdoor seating areas of restaurants and bars.  A chairlift is an outdoor seating area, and it's moving...



Lift line.


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## jaytrem (May 1, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> Lift line.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Maybe passholders only on weekends?  And possibly a lottery system for them?  Weekdays by reservation only if space available.  Similar to what Baldy is doing.


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## kingslug (May 1, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> Not only that, it can also be deadly if you don't know what you're doing and the tree falls the wrong way and crushes you, or your notch is cut wrong and it kicks back and knocks you uncounscious


I've dropped some pretty big trees many moons ago..and yes one fell the wrong way and landed in my neighbors yard ( we made sure no one was there..small yard we had back then) so yes its one hell of a dangerous thing to do. I would never do it now. One of my neighbors trees landed in our driveway, ripped the power lines off the house and my wife would have been there 10 minutes before. Trees in our area are killers. 
My youtube vids now consist of woodworking..I resurrected my old hobby.


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## Smellytele (May 1, 2020)

jaytrem said:


> Maybe passholders only on weekends?  And possibly a lottery system for them?  Weekdays by reservation only if space available.  Similar to what Baldy is doing.



So open up with out getting any income. Hmmm?


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## Hawk (May 1, 2020)

kingslug said:


> I've dropped some pretty big trees many moons ago..and yes one fell the wrong way and landed in my neighbors yard ( we made sure no one was there..small yard we had back then) so yes its one hell of a dangerous thing to do. I would never do it now. One of my neighbors trees landed in our driveway, ripped the power lines off the house and my wife would have been there 10 minutes before. Trees in our area are killers.
> My youtube vids now consist of woodworking..I resurrected my old hobby.


I work in construction for a very large company.  Lifts are a daily thing on most of my jobs.  When you rent lifts there are many costs.  Rental, delivery, pickup, environmental costs and in some cases general liability.  I have friends that have done this in residential settings for basically what you guys are talking about.  Tree's, House painting, roof and chimney repair, etc.  In the long run it makes way more sense and ends not that much more to have the professionals do the work.  If anything goes wrong, it's their insurance not yours, you don't put your life or anybody else in danger and if they mess up, they fix it.  Tree companies are fast, safe, get rid of all the debris and fix your landscaping if it gets inpacted. You can get competitive bids and work the number.  Why do it yourself?  End of tangent off of the skiing thread.


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## deadheadskier (May 1, 2020)

My best friend leases space in a hotel for his restaurant in VT.  He can't open because the hotel is closed.  Basically all hotels in VT are closed save for a handful that are servicing necessary first responder and healthcare workers.  The latest he heard from the hotel is June 1st is the targeted date to allow regular travel to resume to VT hotels.

My thought is if VT is unwilling to allow hotels to open for normal business until 6/1 and that is an activity that easily allows for social distancing, there's no chance they allow activities such as skiing which will promote large gatherings of people.  I don't see the typical spring skiing crowd "behaving" at K and not having group tailgate parties.

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## slatham (May 1, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> So open up with out getting any income. Hmmm?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



The marketing opportunity and making pass holders happy would be well worth it.


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## cdskier (May 1, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> My thought is if VT is unwilling to allow hotels to open for normal business until 6/1 and that is an activity that easily allows for social distancing, there's no chance they allow activities such as skiing which will promote large gatherings of people.  I don't see the typical spring skiing crowd "behaving" at K and not having group tailgate parties.



Fully agree with this.



slatham said:


> The marketing opportunity and making pass holders happy would be well worth it.



Except if they had a lottery system, inevitably some (or perhaps even many) passholders wouldn't even be able to take advantage if they had to limit access and would be pissed off. If they were to open, demand would far outpace supply. Never-mind the public reaction if they did end up having a large gathering because people don't follow the rules and someone, somehow brought the virus into the area.


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## ss20 (May 1, 2020)

Wolf Creek, CO wanted to re-open today and almost did before the governor extended the "no skiing" executive order.


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## drjeff (May 1, 2020)

cdskier said:


> Fully agree with this.
> 
> 
> 
> Except if they had a lottery system, inevitably some (or perhaps even many) passholders wouldn't even be able to take advantage if they had to limit access and would be pissed off. If they were to open, demand would far outpace supply. Never-mind the public reaction if they did end up having a large gathering because people don't follow the rules and someone, somehow brought the virus into the area.


Especially when you consider that for K right now, passholders can be both the K specific passholders, as well as IKON passholders who may still have some of their K days left. 

Trying to sort through that mess alone, let alone with the potential volume of people it involves who have one or the other or even both passes, has way more potential for negatives than positives

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## Zermatt (May 1, 2020)

Just wait a few days. The Supreme Court and US Attorney General could waive away any restrictions. Businesses could still choose to be restrictive but not forced by the states.


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## andrec10 (May 1, 2020)

billo said:


> Just wait a few days. The Supreme Court and US Attorney General could waive away any restrictions. Businesses could still choose to be restrictive but not forced by the states.



Right.......


----------



## Edd (May 1, 2020)

billo said:


> Just wait a few days. The Supreme Court and US Attorney General could waive away any restrictions. Businesses could still choose to be restrictive but not forced by the states.



What leads you to believe this?


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 1, 2020)

Edd said:


> *What leads you to believe this?*



I agree with him.

I have to imagine we're getting pretty close to an emergency ruling SCOTUS case here.  I'm kind of shocked we haven't already.  This is completely unprecedented, which is precisely SCOTUS' territory.  Now, I get NYC & northern NJ locking down, but we have places in America where COVID19 frankly isnt even that big of a deal "locking down" & creating major economic hardship, not to mention restrictions on freedoms, even of movement.  Paging SCOTUS, you're gonna' be steppin' up to the plate soon.


----------



## Not Sure (May 1, 2020)

Yeah but Wisconsin ?


----------



## VTKilarney (May 2, 2020)

And now the WHO is begrudgingly admitting that Sweden may have got this right.


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## dblskifanatic (May 2, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> And now the WHO is begrudgingly admitting that Sweden may have got this right.



Hmmmm sounds like the doctors who’s video got taken down may be in to something - go figure 


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## ss20 (May 2, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> And now the WHO is begrudgingly admitting that Sweden may have got this right.



Shhhh...don't tell that to the media here.  This is gonna go on for years and when it's over half of us will be dead and life will never return to what it was, got it?


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## deadheadskier (May 2, 2020)

dblskifanatic said:


> Hmmmm sounds like the doctors who’s video got taken down may be in to something - go figure
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


So, there was really two points those docs in a box were trying to make.

Point 1,while controversial, was questioning how effective social distancing is towards controlling the spread of the disease.  It's a worthy discussion and something that will be debated for years.  

Point 2 was downplaying the severity of the illness and making the stupid flu comparison.  That's the one that likely had ACEP say, "Oh hell no. FU!", and resulted in the videos being pulled.  They had a very cavalier attitude on that point and anyone with a clue could tell right then and there that their motivation was purely self serving in returning business back to normal for their for profit Urgent Care center. It was most certainly not made because they cared about public health.

For the past two months I've been assisting hospitals in hard hit areas of Boston and Northern NJ with equipment consultation and purchases to battle this disease.  The stories and fear I've listened to have been horrifying.  I don't even cover NJ, but have had to step in because our resources have been completely overwhelmed there.  To a person, none of these healthcare workers have seen the rate and volume of death in their entire careers.  Nothing close.  Honestly anyone who says it's "just like the flu" should be smacked upside the head and forced to volunteer at a hot spot hospital loading body bags into a freezer truck.  I don't truly mean that, but it's pretty darn infuriating hearing people say "it's just like the flu" if you have direct experience dealing with this situation. That's a completely ignorant statement and those docs are Aholes for trying to make that point 

You can feel the way I do and also be fearful of the economic consequences we are facing because of the shut down.  Those are not mutually exclusive positions.



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## 1dog (May 2, 2020)

1st, thank you for the assistance you're giving to the local hospitals in the NE.  Context is important. 

Why wasn't the video left up? I wasn't aware there is a thought police that decides for us what's cavalier and whats not.

Saw the video the day it came out, and my only take-away was the comparisons to lock downs have not made a stattistical difference.

less than 60 deaths in Maine, yet 150,000 are out of work, or in this video-4 mins, evidence that no kids carry or deliver the disease to other people, so why aren't they in school?

https://videos.whatfinger.com/2020/...s-afraid-to-tell-you-in-the-news-this-week-5/


Models have been wrong. Hospitals in most places not overwhelmed, many empty - Javits closed? Hospital ships sent out to sea?

No way to tell how many more deaths if we had not locked down. 

I've got 5 people in my immediate family in healthcare, docs, nurses, nurse docs, and my oldest daughter who tested negative working at local Hartfard hospital, but her spouse tested positive. three kids, all hopefully exposed and have antibodies. Others at Dana Farber/UMASS

I even got tested in the hopes I had antibodies. . . . negative.

The lack of actual comparisons to other maladies make this hard to navigate - few of us do not trust actual state or federal government stats.

Look at the PA retraction of 200 deaths that were not Covid but were marked. A 30,000' view is needed. 

How come not one MA state employee has been laid off? Essential? You do good work, are close to the front lines in the worst of areas, but 330M Americans are suffering most likely needlessly because of an overreaction. 

PS - have lost two people close to me from the disease.


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## VTKilarney (May 2, 2020)

In hindsight, the vulnerable should have locked down while the healthy were allowed to continue to work with some social distancing rules in place.  

Sweden nailed it.


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## Edd (May 2, 2020)

1dog said:


> Why wasn't the video left up? I wasn't aware there is a thought police that decides for us what's cavalier and whats not.



As noted in another thread, it’s YouTube’s portal. I understand disagreeing with their content decisions but “thought police” is dramatic, at best.


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## Not Sure (May 2, 2020)

Edd said:


> As noted in another thread, it’s YouTube’s portal. I understand disagreeing with their content decisions but “thought police” is dramatic, at best.



There's lots of stupid advice in the Homeopathic subject searches on Youtube that will  " endanger"  your health . That seems to be the reason they gave for pulling it.  I get this is an unfamiliar affliction but it seems they used the 3rd party point the finger at the WHO as gospel when they really F..up in the beginning . Seems the truth one day is not the next. 

The comment section or header could be a place for any warnings . People have questioned if they are now taking on editorial task are they now Liable  for consequences? Seems they'd like to have it both ways with no consequences. 

Yes they have the right to police there forums but also should be criticized  for a piss poor job.


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## p_levert (May 2, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> In hindsight, the vulnerable should have locked down while the healthy were allowed to continue to work with some social distancing rules in place.
> 
> Sweden nailed it.



And the UK blew it, right?  And the difference is?  Both went after herd immunity, but it didn't work out in the UK.

You could argue that Sweden has an excellent health care system that could handle the extra load, effective leadership, and they kept politics out of the mix.  For better or worse, I think we are more like the UK than Sweden.  Actually, we're more screwed up than the UK because the federal government is ineffective.


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## BenedictGomez (May 2, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> And now the WHO is begrudgingly admitting that Sweden may have got this right.



I think it's still too early to say that until we can apples-to-apples better compare nation's fatality rates, which we just cant do so easily right now as some nation's are under-reporting COVID19 & some nations are over-reporting COVID19.  We're over-reporters, for instance, but eventually this will likely be statistically sorted-out, but it may take a few years.

That said, the Sweden thing is fairly close to the idea I posted here before this started, I wanted those >=62 & those with commodities sheltering in place to self-quarantine, and everyone else social distance.  Anyone who can work from home does. Cancel large gatherings like festivals, concerts, sports, etc.


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## BenedictGomez (May 2, 2020)

1dog said:


> no kids carry or deliver the disease to other people, so why aren't they in school?



Kids can definitely get COVID19.   Almost no children globally are dying from it, but that's a different topic.


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## BenedictGomez (May 2, 2020)

p_levert said:


> You could argue that Sweden has an excellent health care system that could handle the extra load, effective leadership, and they kept politics out of the mix.  For better or worse, I think we are more like the UK than Sweden.  Actually, we're more screwed up than the UK because the federal government is ineffective.



The US has far superior healthcare capacity & equipment than every European nation you listed, which is why not a single person from sea-to-shining-sea in America has died from COVID19 because they didnt get a ventilator, even though we have the most reported COVID19 cases on Planet Earth.  This in contrast to several European nations where people are dying due to the very penny-pinching nature of their oft-praised healthcare regimes.


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## deadheadskier (May 2, 2020)

yes and no.  Agree on capacity, disagree on equipment. 

All the major manufacturers of devices needed for treating a disease like Covid such as ventilators and critical care monitors, release their products in Europe before the US.  Often 2-3 years prior in fact.  If I want to know what's in the pipeline of my competitors, I check their UK or German websites.  

It's also worth noting that European docs are ahead of US docs in ventilation expertise.  The most cutting edge advances and treatments for at least ten years have been developed overseas.  Pretty much all Anesthesia chiefs at Harvard affiliated hospitals have said as much to me.  



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## Not Sure (May 2, 2020)

A few things  not mentioned that was brought up in the videos is the increase in domestic violence, suicide and deaths occurring due to fears of not going to the ER . I personally know of a suicide due to economics. I’m not sure how all these things will be at all factored in to the final toll.


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## p_levert (May 2, 2020)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> A few things  not mentioned that was brought up in the videos is the increase in domestic violence, suicide and deaths occurring due to fears of not going to the ER . I personally know of a suicide due to economics. I’m not sure how all these things will be at all factored in to the final toll.



Hard to work these things out, but it would certainly be worthwhile to look at increases in suicide rates.  You also can't discount the fact that many of the people succumbing to CV have very limited life expectancies anyway.  But, holy sh*t, you also can't ignore the shocking 1 in 1000 death rate we have attained in NY and NJ (per unit of population, not a ratio of infected people).  Government is supposed to be in the business of saving lives.


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## dblskifanatic (May 2, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> In hindsight, the vulnerable should have locked down while the healthy were allowed to continue to work with some social distancing rules in place.
> 
> Sweden nailed it.



+1


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## dblskifanatic (May 2, 2020)

p_levert said:


> Hard to work these things out, but it would certainly be worthwhile to look at increases in suicide rates.  You also can't discount the fact that many of the people succumbing to CV have very limited life expectancies anyway.  But, holy sh*t, you also can't ignore the shocking 1 in 1000 death rate we have attained in NY and NJ (per unit of population, not a ratio of infected people).  Government is supposed to be in the business of saving lives.



You state the death rate:

You have to wonder - how is this going to impact tourism in NY?  Even places like Las Vegas, San Francisco or other large tourist destinations.  I for one do not have interest in this places but I bet more joins that rank.


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## Zermatt (May 2, 2020)

p_levert said:


> Hard to work these things out, but it would certainly be worthwhile to look at increases in suicide rates.  You also can't discount the fact that many of the people succumbing to CV have very limited life expectancies anyway.  But, holy sh*t, you also can't ignore the shocking 1 in 1000 death rate we have attained in NY and NJ (per unit of population, not a ratio of infected people).  Government is supposed to be in the business of saving lives.



What's the fatality rate when you take out everyone over 80? What % of the population do 80+ year olds makes?

Raises hand...in CT 3% of the population is over 80 yet they make up 56% of all CV deaths (includes hospice and nursing home patients that were literally on their death bed already).


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## BenedictGomez (May 2, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> yes and no.  Agree on capacity, disagree on equipment.
> 
> *All the major manufacturers of devices needed for treating a disease like Covid such as ventilators and critical care monitors, release their products in Europe before the US.  **Often 2-3 years prior in fact. * If I want to know what's in the pipeline of my competitors, I check their UK or German websites.



This is because the EMEA is more lax than the FDA, has been for decades.  In similar vein, drugs hit the market first in Japan well before America.   That said, that's not what I'm talking about.  The fact you've "approved" a device for use 2 or 3 years prior to use in America isn't very helpful if your nationalized penny-pinching healthcare system blocks you from buying the number of said devices your healthcare experts think you really should have.


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## BenedictGomez (May 2, 2020)

p_levert said:


> Hard to work these things out, but it would certainly be worthwhile to look at increases in suicide rates.  You also can't discount the fact that *many of the people succumbing to CV have very limited life expectancies anyway. *



If a study that came out yesterday is to believed that is not true, pegging the average years lost at 10.  Not saying that's right, just noting some disagree.


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## BenedictGomez (May 2, 2020)

A Nobel Prize winner for statistics in Chemistry is out today saying COVID19 doesn't behave in steady logarithmic fashion & never did, and that "Social Distancing" is not as effective as various governments are telling us.

  His analysis shows it spreads exponentially until apex is reached, then it slows regardless of a given nation's countermeasures, from weak responses like Sweden, to arrest someone leaving their house like China. Furthermore he thinks COVID19 will peter-out relatively soon.

Anyway, that's all good & fine, maybe he's right, maybe he's wrong, but *what I'm REALLY interested in* is, will Youtube remove his commentary from Youtube?  

He's a well-known Noble Prize winning Biology & Chemistry statistician who teaches at Stanford's med school, which is elite, but what he's saying is way, way, way, way, more "against" what World Health Organization is saying than what those 2 previously unknown California docs were saying.  Will Youtube censor HIM too?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl-sZdfLcEk&feature=emb_logo


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## icecoast1 (May 3, 2020)

p_levert said:


> But, holy sh*t, you also can't ignore the shocking 1 in 1000 death rate we have attained in NY and NJ (per unit of population, not a ratio of infected people).  Government is supposed to be in the business of saving lives.




That's no surprise given the population density.  New York City and a few downstate NY counties should have been selectively isolated from the beginning rather than allowing everybody to go about their lives and then shutting the whole state down.


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## 1dog (May 3, 2020)

This peice lends weight to DH's point about unfair flu comparisons - but boy, it does put into question how any and all of these stats are compiled.


https://www.powerlineblog.com/archi...omparing-coronavirus-deaths-to-flu-deaths.php


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## nhskier1969 (May 4, 2020)

"Colorado Governor Says Ski Areas Could Be Open for Memorial Day"
Now, If we can we can get the Governor of Vermont to start easing restrictions and get K to be open Memorial Day weekend. 
BTW  The dummest, most idiotic Closure by New England Governors( except RI) is closing Golf Courses.  You can't get better social distance than that.  The Governor of Mass is a moron.  He allows the Esplanade to stay open and the Charles river path that EVERYONE" and the mother uses.  So I guess the esplanade and the Path is better social distancing than Golf Course.  He is an F**kin idiot.


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## BenedictGomez (May 4, 2020)

Our idiot governor finally reopened state parks & golf courses on Saturday.


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## 1dog (May 4, 2020)

Have to agree, Gov 'Parker' ( Biden called him that), here , we call him Tall Deval - same as the old boss.

Have aquestion though 0 what am I missing. Today CDC numbers are a little more than half of media numbers of 65000


https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/


Then there's Project Veritas. . . . .  doing the work some just won't believe.


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## p_levert (May 4, 2020)

IHME model goes from 72K to 134K: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/04/cdc-daily-deaths-coronavirus-234377

Chris Murray says the numbers went up because people are not social-distancing.  I say this is a fig leaf, his model has always been based on bad assumptions.  The predicted rapid decay in deaths never matched what was going on in Europe.

It sure looks like deaths will end up over 100k, as I said way back when in a deleted thread.  Anyone want the under?


----------



## icecoast1 (May 4, 2020)

p_levert said:


> IHME model goes from 72K to 134K: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/04/cdc-daily-deaths-coronavirus-234377
> 
> Chris Murray says the numbers went up because people are not social-distancing.  I say this is a fig leaf, his model has always been based on bad assumptions.  The predicted rapid decay in deaths never matched what was going on in Europe.
> 
> It sure looks like deaths will end up over 100k, as I said way back when in a deleted thread.  Anyone want the under?




The numbers are increasing due to the change in guidelines for reporting Covid deaths, not due to a lack of social distancing


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## steve22 (May 4, 2020)

1dog said:


> Have to agree, Gov 'Parker' ( Biden called him that), here , we call him Tall Deval - same as the old boss.
> 
> Have aquestion though 0 what am I missing. Today CDC numbers are a little more than half of media numbers of 65000
> 
> ...




Your CDC link shows what they call provisional data. These deaths are confirmed by death cert.
If you go to the CDC daily updates page they list a number that includes confirmed and probable cases/deaths.
This is the larger number being reported.

[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html[/FONT]


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## BenedictGomez (May 4, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> The numbers are increasing due to the change in guidelines for reporting Covid deaths, not due to a lack of social distancing



That IHME model is an absolute trainwreck.  Their total deaths figure has jumped up then down, then up, then down, now they literally nearly DOUBLED their death estimate with today's update.  It's embarrassing, and I cant imagine those in charge are using it anymore.   

That said, I do think there's something to be said for the counting becoming impossible with some states like State of New York adding roughly 4,000 COVID19 deaths in one-day from people not even tested for COVID19.  This is very problematic in terms of data accuracy.  So too is counting someone who died of a heart attack or a stroke, or from kidney failure as a COVID19 death when upon autopsy it's discovered they had the virus. There is no doubt we are over-counting COVID19 deaths in America.  Possibly significantly.

https://gothamist.com/news/death-co...uspected-covid-deaths-addition-confirmed-ones


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## Hawk (May 5, 2020)

Time for new legislation.  Open all these things that are so important to you and sign a waiver that says if you get sick you stay at home and take your chances there.  You can infect the ones you love and keep the levels declining for all the courageous first responders and medical personnel that are overworked and stressed.  That is fair enough.  I am all for that any day.  Lets do this now.


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## Puck it (May 5, 2020)




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## Smellytele (May 5, 2020)

Hawk said:


> Time for new legislation.  Open all these things that are so important to you and sign a waiver that says if you get sick you stay at home and take your chances there.  You can infect the ones you love and keep the levels declining for all the courageous first responders and medical personnel that are overworked and stressed.  That is fair enough.  I am all for that any day.  Lets do this now.



What about the people that have to work at these open places?


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## slatham (May 5, 2020)

1dog said:


> Have to agree, Gov 'Parker' ( Biden called him that), here , we call him Tall Deval - same as the old boss.
> 
> Have aquestion though 0 what am I missing. Today CDC numbers are a little more than half of media numbers of 65000
> 
> ...



The media is using the numbers from John Hopkins, which I understand to be the "gold standard".

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Also, the increase in future deaths projected by various models has been a direct result of increased mobility as shown by cell phone tracking data, and the loosening of "stay at home" rules by, I believe, 31 states that will go into affect by May 11th. 

Models by definition have a margin of error, and from what we have seen thus far that margin can be large. But we will see.


----------



## p_levert (May 5, 2020)

slatham said:


> The media is using the numbers from John Hopkins, which I understand to be the "gold standard".
> 
> https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
> 
> Also, the increase in future deaths projected by various models has been a direct result of increased mobility as shown by cell phone tracking data, and the loosening of "stay at home" rules by, I believe, 31 states that will go into affect by May 11th.



As far as the IHME model goes, I would disagree.  This model seems to be based on a simple bell-shaped curve where this is a fast rise, then a decline which is pretty much symmetric.  Apparently the infection in China behaved this way.  However, the pandemic has shown a different shape in Europe, where the decline is much slower and longer.  The IHME had not changed their base assumptions and the model was starting to look ridiculous.  So in one shot they went from 70 k-deaths to 138 k-deaths and blamed it on a lack of social distancing.  But that model has been broken for a while.


----------



## Hawk (May 5, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> What about the people that have to work at these open places?


That is a tough one.  There is a ton of people that are saying "F*&% it"  I want to work.  There are others that are forced to work.  How do you segregate those people?  I guess workers wear masks and gowns, have plexi between them and the patrons.   I'm talking about people in the general sense.   Call up your health care provider, sign a waiver, and you get a card that show to the ski area ticket window and they give you a ticket.  Same at the golf course or at bars or restaurants. This card/waiver you have also waives them of any liability of opening.  So you get sick, well then you go to the hospital, the first thing that any hospital does is log you in, they will see you waived your right for coverage for Corona and when you test positive they tell you you have to go home.


----------



## p_levert (May 5, 2020)

As of this afternoon, Massachusetts has more deaths than Michigan, so Mass is in 3rd place after NY and NJ.  Early hotspots WA and LA are now #17 and #9 respectively. For Washington, I think it shows that very aggressive social distancing does work, at least in the short and mid term.  For Louisiana, it probably has something to do with a warm climate.

On the international front, the United Kingdom now has the 2nd most deaths in the world, after the US.


----------



## drjeff (May 5, 2020)

p_levert said:


> As of this afternoon, Massachusetts has more deaths than Michigan, so Mass is in 3rd place after NY and NJ.  Early hotspots WA and LA are now #17 and #9 respectively. For Washington, I think it shows that very aggressive social distancing does work, at least in the short and mid term.  For Louisiana, it probably has something to do with a warm climate.
> 
> On the international front, the United Kingdom now has the 2nd most deaths in the world, after the US.



I'd say that it's safe to say that their should be an * next to China's reported totals in the worldwide "leader" category


----------



## icecoast1 (May 5, 2020)

p_levert said:


> For Washington, I think it shows that very aggressive social distancing does work, at least in the short and mid term.




Except in the states that didnt go to such extremes and didnt see the huge infection rates and death counts that many were predicting


----------



## icecoast1 (May 5, 2020)

Hawk said:


> Time for new legislation.  Open all these things that are so important to you and sign a waiver that says if you get sick you stay at home and take your chances there.  You can infect the ones you love and keep the levels declining for all the courageous first responders and medical personnel that are overworked and stressed.  That is fair enough.  I am all for that any day.  Lets do this now.



I wonder if the majority of people who have the opinion that we should just stay home for months on end will change their opinion once their ability to work from home disappears when they lose their job as the economy gets worse and the ability to make more on unemployment than when working runs out?


----------



## VTKilarney (May 5, 2020)

Extending the lockdown until there is a vaccine available to all just isn’t viable.


----------



## John9 (May 5, 2020)

Camelback PA just announced they are reopening the resort June 11. So I can take that to mean they will have no issue opening for next ski season? Can't we all just wear N95s under our face/neck gators and ski without issue?


----------



## chuckstah (May 5, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> Extending the lockdown until there is a vaccine available to all just isn’t viable.


For sure. There may never be a viable vaccine, but hopefully the medical community hits the jackpot and has a somewhat effective one sooner rather than later. 

Sent from my moto e5 cruise using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## deadheadskier (May 5, 2020)

John9 said:


> Camelback PA just announced they are reopening the resort June 11. So I can take that to mean they will have no issue opening for next ski season? Can't we all just wear N95s under our face/neck gators and ski without issue?


You would think.  Pretty simple precaution to take if needed.  But people are losing their God damn minds about wearing masks in Costco, so compliance will obviously be a challenge. 

No shirts, no shoes, no service?  No problem for 99.99% of people.  But heaven forbid you have to wear a mask

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## BenedictGomez (May 5, 2020)

In the entire State of New Jersey you have to wear a mask wherever you go; it's annoying, but I think you get used to it quickly.


----------



## icecoast1 (May 6, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> You would think.  Pretty simple precaution to take if needed.  But people are losing their God damn minds about wearing masks in Costco, so compliance will obviously be a challenge.
> 
> No shirts, no shoes, no service?  No problem for 99.99% of people.  But heaven forbid you have to wear a mask
> 
> Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app



Many people wear masks skiing as it is already, this should be a pretty easy one if it comes to that


----------



## Edd (May 6, 2020)

While skiing, I simply can’t wear a mask without fogging up to the point where it’s dangerous. I’d want to drop it when I head downhill and put it back up the rest of the time. 


Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone


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## jimmywilson69 (May 6, 2020)

John9 said:


> Camelback PA just announced they are reopening the resort June 11. So I can take that to mean they will have no issue opening for next ski season? Can't we all just wear N95s under our face/neck gators and ski without issue?



That's assuming their county is not in the RED stage, which is a full stay at home order I'm sure.  Considering their proximity to NY and all of the NY people who have second homes there who likely brought the virus to that area, I'd say that's an aggressive assumption at best.  They are reporting almost 500 more cases than my county and are much less populated.


----------



## drjeff (May 6, 2020)

John9 said:


> Camelback PA just announced they are reopening the resort June 11. So I can take that to mean they will have no issue opening for next ski season? Can't we all just wear N95s under our face/neck gators and ski without issue?



Here's the thing with the N95 masks that folks have been hearing about in the media lots lately.

First off, if the world of medical masks, there are 3 main types that are being discussed these days. The "standard" mask prior to this, and the type of mask that I have worn for the last 20 years as a dentist, is what's called a ASTM level 3 mask.  Then there's the KN95 mask and the N95 mask.  The KN95 and N95's are quite similar in their design and specs, with the minimum particle bloacking size, and hence overall efficiency of blocking particles slightly higher on paper for the N95's than the KN95's.

The true reality is though all 3 styles of masks, WHEN WORN APPROPRIATELY, are very effective at preventing the wearing from picking up some type of airborne disease from the outside.  There also is no concrete data out there that shows that with respect to N95's, they are statistically superior than the other 2 types of mask at preventing COVID-19 infection be the wearer. 

This is especially important in my dental profession as since COVID-19 can easily be spread through the air, and many of the devices we use in peoples mouth's generate aerosols, and we're well withing the 6 foot social distancing space while working.

N95's are in incredibly short supply right now. A colleague of mine, called and eventually got through a a fairly senior person at 3M, who is a major manufacturer globablly of N95's and was told that orders placed now, more than likely couldn't be filled until late 2020 or early 2021, based on current order backlog.

Additionally if you look at the cost per mask, in the bulk that I buy them, the traditional ASTM level 3 masks run about 50 cents a piece. The KN95's are currently running in the $3.50 to $6 a piece range wholesale and the N95's are cutrrently running in the $10 to $15 a piece range wholesale.

There's not plethora of GOOD science out there that shows that 1 type of mask, when worn properly is better than the others. If you have a N95 on that isn't fit properly, the person with an ASTM level 3 on that is fit properly is at a lower risk of picking up COVID-19 via airborne sources. Many in the regulatory agencies and media seem to have picked up on the N95 push, since in theory it regarded as the "best" mask out there, however that is more in reference to dusty construction sites (where N95's were mainly used prior to this) than in airborne disease pathogen risk reduction settings.

Bottom line is that the bulk of the general population who may now be wearing a mask for the 1st time, should be far more concerned with if they're wearing is properly and then proper mask "hygiene" such as not constantly adjusting it once it's on properly (you just contaminated your fingers by doing that and then run the risk of your fingers and those contaminants being closer to the entry portals that are your mouth, nose and eyes) than what type of mask you're wearing.

Additionally on the N95 front, having now worn 1 for the last couple of months if and when I have to go into my office for an emergency patient, the airflow through them is reduced for sure over a regular ASTM level 3 mask. To the point where I wouldn't want to be wearing while while doing an aerobic activity


----------



## p_levert (May 6, 2020)

Thanks, Dr. Jeff, I appreciate the info.

So, the ASTM 3 is also commonly known as a surgical mask, right?

When I wear a N95 mask, it seals pretty good around the edges.  So the air is forced to actually go through the filter material, at least most of the air.  OTOH, the surgical masks have *lots* of gaps on the sides.  That seems to be the biggest single difference, other than the actual filter material.


----------



## JimG. (May 6, 2020)

Maybe I'll open a business selling personalized face masks. Who knows, maybe I can sell fashion versions to the rich and famous.

I'd like a box of masks with big red puckered up lips on them.


----------



## drjeff (May 6, 2020)

p_levert said:


> Thanks, Dr. Jeff, I appreciate the info.
> 
> So, the ASTM 3 is also commonly known as a surgical mask, right?
> 
> When I wear a N95 mask, it seals pretty good around the edges.  So the air is forced to actually go through the filter material, at least most of the air.  OTOH, the surgical masks have *lots* of gaps on the sides.  That seems to be the biggest single difference, other than the actual filter material.



Correct.

And there's some good youtube videos out there about how with some simple folding and adjusting of the ear-loop elastics on an ASTM # surgical mask that greatly reduces the gapping potential on the sides that can happen.

And honestly after spending more time than I ever thought I would in my lifetime looking at various studies of the efficacy of the various mask types with respect to COVID-19, there seems to be little to no difference, well let me also say that thus far there haven't been a bunch of mask efficacy studies with respect to COVID-19 as this is such a new disease, in the filtration material that all 3 masks are made of. The biggest difference seems to be that when properly fit, and in theory for an N95 to be properly fitted it has to be fit checked by someone certified to do so, and then it is presumed that every time the wearer of an N95 puts one on that they will go through the exact same process that they did why be evaluated by the certified fit checker.

An interesting study that I read that was published in the New England Journal of Medicine (pretty sure that was the publication journal as I recall off the top of my head right now) last September, looked at over the course of about 8 months, numerous nurses in the ICU's of about 10 major hospitals across the country with respect to N95 masks and the traditional "surgical" ASTM3 masks wearing and during their treatment of patients diagnosed with Influenza A and B, and the results showed that numerically slightly more nurses came down with the flu while wearing N95's than ASTM level 3 masks (it was something like 200 with the N95's and 194 with the ASTM 3's, and there were something like 15,000 potential exposure situation when you factored in all the individual nurses and the number of days they worked in an ICU with patients with the flu over the length of the study.  Proper fit, or lack there of was one of the issues with the N95's that may have played a roll in the wearer contracting the flu.

The bottom line as I see it right now, is that proper wearing of a mask, and then proper mask hygiene when putting it on, wearing it, and then removing it, seems to be more important than the actual type of mask in the vast majority of circumstances


----------



## p_levert (May 6, 2020)

Thanks Dr J.

And, of course, you just refuted the statement "surgical masks only serve to protect other people, not yourself".  I never really believed that.


----------



## andrec10 (May 6, 2020)

Edd said:


> While skiing, I simply can’t wear a mask without fogging up to the point where it’s dangerous. I’d want to drop it when I head downhill and put it back up the rest of the time.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone



Me too!


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## Cornhead (May 6, 2020)

JimG. said:


> Maybe I'll open a business selling personalized face masks. Who knows, maybe I can sell fashion versions to the rich and famous.
> 
> I'd like a box of masks with big red puckered up lips on them.


Made from our shop towels at work. I've since shortened the design and stapled a pleat in the bottom along with adding a wire to the top. I was hoping my safety glasses wouldn't fog up after adding the wire, but they still do. I now wear the glasses on my head and drop them down over my eyes if doing something that warrants eye protection.

Sent from my Moto E (4) Plus using AlpineZone mobile app


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## nhskier1969 (May 6, 2020)

Edd said:


> While skiing, I simply can’t wear a mask without fogging up to the point where it’s dangerous. I’d want to drop it when I head downhill and put it back up the rest of the time.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone


+1


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## drjeff (May 6, 2020)

p_levert said:


> Thanks Dr J.
> 
> And, of course, you just refuted the statement "surgical masks only serve to protect other people, not yourself".  I never really believed that.


It actually does work both ways in specific instances. Generally speaking the mask prevents the user from getting what's in the air around them. 

Also, if say the wearer sneezes, well then it prevents those around the wearer from getting exposed to what's in the air after they sneeze. 

The majority of the time it is for the wearers protection...

And as an FYI, if one does sneeze inside of their mask, trust me when I say that you don't want to take it off infront of someone and also have a tissue or wet towel handy to wipe your face with!!! Trust me, been there, done that many times!! 

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using AlpineZone mobile app


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## nhskier1969 (May 6, 2020)

JimG. said:


> Maybe I'll open a business selling personalized face masks. Who knows, maybe I can sell fashion versions to the rich and famous.
> 
> I'd like a box of masks with big red puckered up lips on them.




I watch Shark Tank a lot lately.  One of the episodes three years ago, had a guy making customized face mask.  Non of the Sharks wanted to invest in his company.  They thought it was too limited of a market to make money.


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## Not Sure (May 6, 2020)

Lol , Pop up add on AZ


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## BenedictGomez (May 6, 2020)

drjeff said:


> Additionally on the N95 front, having now worn 1 for the last couple of months if and when I have to go into my office for an emergency patient, *the airflow through them is reduced for sure *over a regular ASTM level 3 mask. *To the point where I wouldn't want to be wearing while while doing an aerobic activity*



I have an N100 mask for home hobby tools like a jibsaw, miter saw, circular saw etc., and I havent worn it out of the house during this state mandated face covering thing.  I wear a poly turtle fur for spring skiing instead.



nhskier1969 said:


> I watch Shark Tank a lot lately. * One of the episodes three years ago, had a guy making customized face mask.  Non of the Sharks wanted to invest in his company.  They thought it was too limited of a market *to make money.



I'd say the Sharks were correct.


----------



## nhskier1969 (May 7, 2020)

Good article about Sweden.  During this pandemic that have gone on pretty much business as usual.  Bars are open, schools are open ski resorts are open etc..
There death rate is higher than there neighbors but I would have to guess their neighbors and the US will see an increase of deaths as they open up the country.  But was this really worth shutting down the economy.  There will be thousands of business going under.  You will go to a restaurant you will pay triple what you normally pay because they are only seating a 3rd of the customers.  Sweden is using(and I mentioned it several pages ago) herd immunity.  The only difference between Sweden and their Neighbors, Sweeden is months ahead of all the other countries for stopping and slowing down this virus. because they are spreading it out to the entire country now.  

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/15/834746370/swedens-controversial-decision-not-to-lock-down-the-country


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## deadheadskier (May 7, 2020)

Sweden's response is certainly worth discussing.

I think the statement that restaurants will charge triple is overly simplistic and way off base.  Landlords will need to adjust their expectations of what their tenants can reasonably be expected to pay or be faced with high vacancies.  The entire supply chain from farmers to beverage producers to distribution will also have to adjust their cost structures depending on adjusted sales volume. 

The price of a $6 pint of beer will for sure go up, but it won't be $18.  

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## tumbler (May 7, 2020)

I think some of it is revisionist history.  Flattening the curve worked.  The economy would be shut down no matter what in my opinion.  Either by the steps that were taken or by so many people getting sick that businesses would be closing because many people are sick, no one wants to leave their home and general chaos.  I think if the US was reactive instead of proactive (relatively) things would be much different for the worse right now.


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## kingslug (May 7, 2020)

Ever been to Sweden..not a very population dense country. If we did what they did in our major cities..things would be very different now. 
And don't worry..traffic getting to NYC is back..so things are slowly returning to ...new normal?


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## nhskier1969 (May 7, 2020)

Please watch the video.  The lady talks about Coronavirus.  I thought at first she was a crackpot Then you listen to her more and more, I really believe what she is saying.   I didn't know the US has been giving sizable funding to the lab in Wuhan China.  Also the Wuhan Lab had been working with a lab North Carolina for the past couple of years .
Anyway the video is 25 minutes long.  Also this video keeps on getting taken down, so if you can't watch it, I sorry.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbInoGkEUrQ&feature=youtu.be&app=desktop


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## skiur (May 7, 2020)

kingslug said:


> Ever been to Sweden..not a very population dense country. If we did what they did in our major cities..things would be very different now.
> And don't worry..traffic getting to NYC is back..so things are slowly returning to ...new normal?



Ummm, traffic in NYC is no where near normal. You can drive the bqe at 8 am without traffic.


----------



## Dickc (May 7, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> Sweden's response is certainly worth discussing.
> 
> I think the statement that restaurants will charge triple is overly simplistic and way off base.  Landlords will need to adjust their expectations of what their tenants can reasonably be expected to pay or be faced with high vacancies.  The entire supply chain from farmers to beverage producers to distribution will also have to adjust their cost structures depending on adjusted sales volume.
> 
> ...


As you have food and beverage experience, what is the normal markup, pre Covid, on food and beverage, and what do you think it might have to go to so it supports a place that can only operate at 1/3 capacity.   (Just a WAG will work fine) I imagine that there will be less support staff to pay, but some overhead exists whether the places has customers in it or not.

The difference in markup will probably be the cost increase in general for food and beverage. I have no idea how that business works, so I am interested in what you can tell me.


----------



## kingslug (May 7, 2020)

skiur said:


> Ummm, traffic in NYC is no where near normal. You can drive the bqe at 8 am without traffic.



I never commuted to the city by car. So I'm just gauging it by last month when no one was on the road. Now FDR South is pretty backed up and other areas. But I'll be leaving my house around 5AM so theres not much at that point yet. Hopefully parking rates don't go up. I use Parkwiz and Spothero Apps.. 15 bucks a day.
I do not want to get on trains anymore.


----------



## kingslug (May 7, 2020)

I was in the restaurant business for a while..you make money on booze..much more than food. Something like 900% markup. 
In college the teacher said it first..you don't sell booze..your gone. Unless your place is structured to not sell it.


----------



## cdskier (May 7, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> Please watch the video.  The lady talks about Coronavirus.  I thought at first she was a crackpot Then you listen to her more and more, I really believe what she is saying.   I didn't know the US has been giving sizable funding to the lab in Wuhan China.  Also the Wuhan Lab had been working with a lab North Carolina for the past couple of years .
> Anyway the video is 25 minutes long.  Also this video keeps on getting taken down, so if you can't watch it, I sorry.
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbInoGkEUrQ&feature=youtu.be&app=desktop



:roll:

Oh good, another conspiracy theorist video filled with half truths and a lot of non-sense that sucks people in. Can I have my 25 minutes back?

The US gives sizable funding to MANY labs around the world. Nothing unusual about the Wuhan lab also receiving some funding. And the claim in the video that they received $3.7M is flat out wrong. That was the overall grant amount, but it went to numerous places (including some in the US, Australia, and Singapore). 



> “We don’t need a vaccine,” proclaimed Dr. Judy Mikovits, a controversial former chronic fatigue researcher who now frequently makes anti-vaccine claims, in an April 15 YouTube video with more than 80,000 views. “All you have to do is have a healthy immune system.” (Mikovits has also been involved in the “Fire Fauci” campaign, claiming he sabotaged her research into a purported mouse virus that she says is the true cause of cancer.)



But yea...she sounds like another reliable source.

https://bigthink.com/coronavirus/the-plandemic?rebelltitem=1#rebelltitem1


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## deadheadskier (May 7, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> Please watch the video.  The lady talks about Coronavirus.  I thought at first she was a crackpot Then you listen to her more and more, I really believe what she is saying.   I didn't know the US has been giving sizable funding to the lab in Wuhan China.  Also the Wuhan Lab had been working with a lab North Carolina for the past couple of years .
> Anyway the video is 25 minutes long.  Also this video keeps on getting taken down, so if you can't watch it, I sorry.
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pbInoGkEUrQ&feature=youtu.be&app=desktop


no offense but.....

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## JimG. (May 7, 2020)

kingslug said:


> I was in the restaurant business for a while..you make money on booze..much more than food. Something like 900% markup.
> In college the teacher said it first..you don't sell booze..your gone. Unless your place is structured to not sell it.



Booze a big profit center for restaurants along with dessert and coffee.


----------



## JimG. (May 7, 2020)

Cornhead said:


> Made from our shop towels at work. I've since shortened the design and stapled a pleat in the bottom along with adding a wire to the top. I was hoping my safety glasses wouldn't fog up after adding the wire, but they still do. I now wear the glasses on my head and drop them down over my eyes if doing something that warrants eye protection.View attachment 26830View attachment 26831
> 
> Sent from my Moto E (4) Plus using AlpineZone mobile app



Enhances social distancing...charge extra for that.


----------



## deadheadskier (May 7, 2020)

Dickc said:


> As you have food and beverage experience, what is the normal markup, pre Covid, on food and beverage, and what do you think it might have to go to so it supports a place that can only operate at 1/3 capacity.   (Just a WAG will work fine) I imagine that there will be less support staff to pay, but some overhead exists whether the places has customers in it or not.
> 
> The difference in markup will probably be the cost increase in general for food and beverage. I have no idea how that business works, so I am interested in what you can tell me.


There's really no one size fits all answer to this.  It really depends on what the product mix is that the restaurant is serving and the level of service provided.  

I would say typical numbers for the full service restaurants I managed which leaned towards the fine dining segment of the industry or the catering operations in hotels I ran were something like this.

Operational profit margin of 10 - 18 %.  So, that doesn't include rent, utilities, etc. 

Beverage costs 22-28%.  Sell a lot of draft beer and cheap liquor and costs are low. High end wines and costs are higher.

Food costs 25-34%.  Sell a lot of pasta and costs are lower. Steaks costs are higher.

Labor costs 25-30%.  Fine dining and higher end food skew higher.  Banquets or more casual service restaurants - lower.

When I worked on the supply side in meat distribution, our company targeted a gross operational profit of roughly 12%.  The distribution mark up on meats averaged about 33%

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## nhskier1969 (May 7, 2020)

kingslug said:


> Ever been to Sweden..not a very population dense country. If we did what they did in our major cities..things would be very different now.
> And don't worry..traffic getting to NYC is back..so things are slowly returning to ...new normal?



One of the reasons that the fatality rate to cases are so high, they only test people that come to the hospital.  Other reason of course is social distancing.  But I've been talking about this since everything started to happen.  This video is from April 27th


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## deadheadskier (May 7, 2020)

Is there concrete proof that herd immunity can be achieved?  

Possibly and hopefully can happen.  I guess we will find out.

On a personal note, my brothers live in fiance has tested positive.  Her symptoms are mild, but it only started Monday. She got her test Tuesday and results yesterday.  My brother now has the same symptoms and it is presumed he is positive as well.  They are waiting to hear from his physician if he is eligible to be tested.  

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## skiur (May 7, 2020)

kingslug said:


> I never commuted to the city by car. So I'm just gauging it by last month when no one was on the road. Now FDR South is pretty backed up and other areas. But I'll be leaving my house around 5AM so theres not much at that point yet. Hopefully parking rates don't go up. I use Parkwiz and Spothero Apps.. 15 bucks a day.
> I do not want to get on trains anymore.



Yeah, I would rather walk than get on a train right now.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 7, 2020)

I personally know 6 people who got COVID19, who live in a combined 4 states (Florida, Vermont, New York, New Jersey).  I'm not talking about people "I know" on FB or some internet forum, I mean "real world" people I'm close with.  Thankfully, all 6 of them are fine, but unless I'm a real mathematical outlier, put me down as one of the folks who thinks COVID19 is spread way more than our current knowledge.


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## p_levert (May 7, 2020)

My brother-in-law got CV-19.  He has recovered, but it's a nasty illness that you don't want to get.  He took over 4 weeks to recover, and he's still not at full strength.  He experienced that common side effect of losing taste and smell.  He's not back to normal with taste and smell either.


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## p_levert (May 7, 2020)

They are going to start lifting the lockdown in the UK next week.  But, hey, it's not much:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXcHluaWAAcmeVn?format=jpg&name=small

Bars open 8/31, live sports with fans 10/1, gyms 10/1, it's going to be a dull summer.


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## Not Sure (May 7, 2020)

I know someone who ended up in ICU for a while , he is obese and very out of shape for a 50 something. My brother in law was diagnosed a few weeks ago and is fine now. I know of four people who had every symptom and never were tested. 
Around Christmas I was sick for 6 weeks with a horrible cough and just didn't seem to have any energy. Not sure if it was the Flu for myself and all those people or maybe a mix ?  An antibody test would be nice but not sure if it's available I'm interested out of curiosity .How do you calculate the true death rate without everyone being tested? 

The doctors all seem to agree there will be a second wave yet all of the models don't seem to resemble anything other than a bell curve? That seems to indicate the person/s who are responsible for the models are not doctors ?


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## Edd (May 7, 2020)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> I know someone who ended up in ICU for a while , he is obese and very out of shape for a 50 something. My brother in law was diagnosed a few weeks ago and is fine now. I know of four people who had every symptom and never were tested.
> Around Christmas I was sick for 6 weeks with a horrible cough and just didn't seem to have any energy. Not sure if it was the Flu for myself and all those people or maybe a mix ?  An antibody test would be nice but not sure if it's available I'm interested out of curiosity .How do you calculate the true death rate without everyone being tested?
> 
> The doctors all seem to agree there will be a second wave yet all of the models don't seem to resemble anything other than a bell curve? That seems to indicate the person/s who are responsible for the models are not doctors ?



New disease. New rules. Let’s all be grown ups and deal with what is in front of us. 

Or we can listen to Alex Jones-ish sources and believe that the Martians want to give us the Clap and settle into that mentality.


----------



## Not Sure (May 7, 2020)

Edd said:


> New disease. New rules. Let’s all be grown ups and deal with what is in front of us.
> 
> Or we can listen to Alex Jones-ish sources and believe that the Martians want to give us the Clap and settle into that mentality.



PMS much ?  , sheesh . That was a logical question raised earlier by someone else here I believe.  I’ll look around some more but haven’t seen models with a second wave . 

Alex is jackass for the record he lost me early on with the gay frog stuff!! Basically a troll!!


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## nhskier1969 (May 7, 2020)

Two Graphs, One is Sweden the other is US.
Sweden did herd Immunity.  They kept schools open, bars & restaurants, parks etc.  The US was locked down for over two months.  The graphs look the same.  A lot of people may disagree but Trump is right, the Governors should have opened up their states alot sooner than they did.  We need to get the economy going, We need to get people out and about.  
Anyway,  the only thing this graph doesn't show is the US is going to have another spike again in a few weeks.  Sweden isn't.  Sweden believes they will hit the magic number 70% infection rate by mid may.  That is when the virus will be contained.


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## cdskier (May 7, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> Two Graphs, One is Sweden the other is US.
> Sweden did herd Immunity.  They kept schools open, bars & restaurants, parks etc.  The US was locked down for over two months.  The graphs look the same.  A lot of people may disagree but Trump is right, the Governors should have opened up their states alot sooner than they did.  We need to get the economy going, We need to get people out and about.
> Anyway,  the only thing this graph doesn't show is the US is going to have another spike again in a few weeks.  Sweden isn't.  Sweden believes they will hit the magic number 70% infection rate by mid may.  That is when the virus will be contained.



How exactly will Sweden get to a 70% infection rate by mid-May if the current data shows that in Stockholm alone they estimate they are at only 25-30%?

Sweden isn't the US. There are so many variables at play here. The lock-down strategy difference is not the only one. Sweden has stated they have continually maintained excess hospital capacity and that's why they were comfortable with not being overly restrictive. The US did not have that luxury in their harder hit areas. Stop comparing the two. It is ridiculous.

And "herd immunity" was NOT Sweden's strategy in the first place according to their Foreign Minister. People there just happened to actually listen to recommendations without requiring an actual lockdown by the government:
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/...y-of-herd-immunity-swedish-fm-tells-france-24


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## nhskier1969 (May 7, 2020)

cdskier said:


> How exactly will Sweden get to a 70% infection rate by mid-May if the current data shows that in Stockholm alone they estimate they are at only 25-30%?
> 
> Sweden isn't the US. There are so many variables at play here. The lock-down strategy difference is not the only one. Sweden has stated they have continually maintained excess hospital capacity and that's why they were comfortable with not being overly restrictive. The US did not have that luxury in their harder hit areas. Stop comparing the two. It is ridiculous.
> 
> ...



Ok maybe not fair comparison, but they have done an excellent job handling the Coronavirus.  The only thing that they didn't consider is how it ravaged nursing homes.  Would you say that Sweeden is fair comparison(how people are spread out) to North New England, counting NH, Vermont and Maine?  Do you think these state over reacted?


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## cdskier (May 7, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> Ok maybe not fair comparison, but they have done an excellent job handling the Coronavirus.  The only thing that they didn't consider is how it ravaged nursing homes.  Would you say that Sweeden is fair comparison(how people are spread out) to North New England, counting NH, Vermont and Maine?  Do you think these state over reacted?



"Excellent" job is debatable. What are you basing that claim on? Their death rate is certainly higher than many other countries (including their neighboring countries). Their economic impact isn't expected to be substantially different than other countries in Europe either. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/cor...ntract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html).

So what was so "excellent" about it? Simply the fact that they didn't enact that many restrictions?

As for northern New England states - no I don't think they over-reacted. Had VT, NH, ME not implemented strict restrictions, they would have been flooded with people from NY, MA, CT, NJ, etc that would have brought the virus into those states and put a severe strain on the relatively limited resources they have available.


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## BenedictGomez (May 7, 2020)

cdskier said:


> As for northern New England states - no I don't think they over-reacted. Had VT, NH, ME not implemented strict restrictions, they would have been flooded with people from NY, MA, CT, NJ, etc that would have brought the virus into those states and put a severe strain on the relatively limited resources they have available.



That was like 1000 years ago, I doubt that's what he means at this point re: overreacting.  States like Vermont have definitely overreacted to the point of absurdity with some things. That state should be well deep into its' opening up process already.


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## thebigo (May 8, 2020)

You cannot compare sweden with the us. Sweden has a population of just over 10m people, roughly the same as North Carolina. According to the graph, sweden has reported 25k cases, according to the CDC north Carolina has reported 12k cases.


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## mbedle (May 8, 2020)

Edd said:


> New disease. New rules. Let’s all be grown ups and deal with what is in front of us.
> 
> Or we can listen to Alex Jones-ish sources and believe that the Martians want to give us the Clap and settle into that mentality.



LOL... Good one!


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## Smellytele (May 8, 2020)

So read an article this morning that 65% of the covid cases in the us (outside of NY) were caused by people traveling from NY.
Also saw that 66% of the new NY hospitalizations are from people saying that had been staying at home. So maybe the stay at home orders are useless. Or maybe just a coincidence as more unhealthy people are staying home.


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## flakeydog (May 8, 2020)

Sweden is truly and interesting case and it is very difficult to compare Sweden to the US.  There are some fundamental differences that extend beyond the obvious like absolute population (10M vs 300M) and geographic size.  

Looking at their approach, some would look at Sweden like it is some sort of Libertarian paradise where one can decide on one's own to isolate, or not.  Many in the US, that tend to skew on the Conservative side, point to Sweden's approach of apparent hands-off self management as the way to go- why cant we do that?  Perhaps we soon forget that these are the same people that painted Sweden (and much the rest of Europe) with the broad brush of "Socialism!", look out Venezuela, they're next!  Bernie and his band of thugs is coming for us to turn us into Swedes and Danes, the horror!

The fact is, Sweden is neither.  What Sweden has that the US does not is a fundamental connection between the Government and the Individual.  Government intervention is strong though high taxation and regulation (sorry libertarians) but citizens reap the benefits of this in the form of high quality of life, good education, medical care, child care, employment protection, etc.  It is a symbiotic relationship.  The people have a high level of trust in their government and vice versa.

The US does not have this.  For one, we were founded on principles that originated from an oppressive regime that we separated from.  We then put many protections in place to keep our government at arm's length.  By design, we are very wary of government overreach, that's just the way we are.  We are also a free society, more so than anywhere in the world.  We don't like to be told what to do.

So how does this relate to our current situation?  Now more than ever, there is a fundamental mistrust in our Federal Government.  Furthermore, there is a distinct rift between "the Government" (the rank and file bureaucratic maze of agencies and departments) and the Administration (those elected or appointed with the power to make decisions).  The Government does not trust the Administration, the Administration does not take the guidance from the Government.  Not surprisingly, we as a nation are also split as to who we believe or trust.  Some want to shut down, others call BS on the whole COVID issue.  There is no unified approach. States blame the Fed, Fed throws shade back on the states.  

Meanwhile, those that don't care echew what should be common sense social distance protocol because we feel there is a "choice" between science, fact, and policy.  We are a free society, no one can tell 'me' what to do.  Me first, the rest of the losers out there are on your own.


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## deadheadskier (May 8, 2020)

Good analysis

Just a reminder to folks that let's not make this political.  Not all government talk is, but some feel the need to talk parties and political ideology preferences when government gets brought up.

Don't go there. 

thanks



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## slatham (May 8, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> So read an article this morning that 65% of the covid cases in the us (outside of NY) were caused by people traveling from NY.
> Also saw that 66% of the new NY hospitalizations are from people saying that had been staying at home. So maybe the stay at home orders are useless. Or maybe just a coincidence as more unhealthy people are staying home.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



The above statements need to be clarified. For the first, this isn't about New Yorkers leaving the state and spreading Covid-19. 

"The enormous growth of New York’s outbreak partly reflects its volume of international visitors, especially from Europe, where most of its infections came from."

For the second, the analysis stated that the vast majority were not working. But that does not mean they were "staying at home". If you are home and not in contact with others you will not get it.


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## Smellytele (May 8, 2020)

slatham said:


> The above statements need to be clarified. For the first, this isn't about New Yorkers leaving the state and spreading Covid-19.
> 
> "The enormous growth of New York’s outbreak partly reflects its volume of international visitors, especially from Europe, where most of its infections came from."
> 
> For the second, the analysis stated that the vast majority were not working. But that does not mean they were "staying at home". If you are home and not in contact with others you will not get it.



I just stated what the article said and only added the opinion that maybe the stay at home mandate may not be working. The article stated 2/3rds of the patients recently hospitalized in NY had been staying home. Actually is was the title of the article. Not 2/3rds were not working. It did say of the 2/3rds only 17% were employed. But it did say the 2/3rds were staying home. 

The first article came out said 65% of the cases in the US (outside of NY) were most likely caused by people who traveled from NY. 


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## slatham (May 8, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> I just stated what the article said and only added the opinion that maybe the stay at home mandate may not be working. The article stated 2/3rds of the patients recently hospitalized in NY had been staying home. Actually is was the title of the article. Not 2/3rds were not working. It did say of the 2/3rds only 17% were employed. But it did say the 2/3rds were staying home.
> 
> The first article came out said 65% of the cases in the US (outside of NY) were most likely caused by people who traveled from NY.
> 
> ...



Agreed, many stories and especially headlines these days need clarification.


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## jimk (May 8, 2020)

I believe there was a poster on here about a week or two ago that said he was stuck in a condo in Boston throughout the entire lockdown and wished he'd been able to go to his vacation property at a ski resort in VT.  But he was staying in place.

How many here are in a similar situation?  *How many here have been completely or close to completely confined to their home/apartment and have only gone outside for groceries or other essential travel such as medical emergency?*

I feel very bad for folks that are in that situation.  I don't blame them for staying confined especially if they live in an apartment or condo in an urban hot spot.  I know I would have a very hard time dealing with a lockdown that strict.  Here in Utah my wife and I been fortunate to be living at my son's single family home with a nice yard and plenty of nearby places for hiking, biking, skinning, and scenic drives.  I have been outside pretty much all day, every day doing yard, house work or going for exercise.


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## flakeydog (May 8, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> Good analysis
> 
> Just a reminder to folks that let's not make this political.  Not all government talk is, but some feel the need to talk parties and political ideology preferences when government gets brought up.
> 
> ...



I was really trying to keep politics out of it.  This was intended to look at behavior (and what motivates it) in Sweden versus the US.  

We are a free society and it is interesting to look at what some other countries have done.  On one end of the spectrum you have had some countries strong-arm their citizens through curfews, tracking, surveillance, etc.  Others like Sweden take the hands-off approach.  I guess we are somewhere in between.  

Obviously dictatorial measures, while possibly effective, are a non-starter here in the US.  I will also say that in Sweden, they are seeing a higher death rate than in other countries.  At the same time, even though they are still "open", their economy is still taking a hit because people are choosing to isolate even if it is not mandated.

The next big issue will be travel.  We are a large country and while small gatherings in a local area may start to come back, introducing people from several different areas and consolidating them in a small area could be problematic.  Colleges are really struggling with this because many, if not most, will bring people in from all over.  Schools may be fine by fall because they draw just on the local population.  If we keep mixing and mixing it could be a while before things settle down.  It's like trying to make a drawing on an etch-a-sketch but someone keeps shaking it every 2 minutes.


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## nhskier1969 (May 8, 2020)

cdskier said:


> "Excellent" job is debatable. What are you basing that claim on? Their death rate is certainly higher than many other countries (including their neighboring countries). Their economic impact isn't expected to be substantially different than other countries in Europe either. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/cor...ntract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html).
> 
> So what was so "excellent" about it? Simply the fact that they didn't enact that many restrictions?
> 
> As for northern New England states - no I don't think they over-reacted. Had VT, NH, ME not implemented strict restrictions, they would have been flooded with people from NY, MA, CT, NJ, etc that would have brought the virus into those states and put a severe strain on the relatively limited resources they have available.



Would you agree with the death rate is going to peak even higher in the next three weeks?  I'd say yes, its because we been inside for over 2 months.  If it continues to climb, are they going to shut down the economy for another 3 months, fuck it let's shut down for the entire year.  I sorry to say, we need to let it run its course now.


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## BenedictGomez (May 8, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> *Would you agree with the death rate is going to peak even higher in the next three weeks?*  I'd say yes, its because we been inside for over 2 months.



No.  Because testing is greatly ramping.  

More testing = more positives.  

More positives = larger denominator.

 Larger denominator ex increasing lethality = lower death rate.


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## deadheadskier (May 8, 2020)

flakeydog said:


> I was really trying to keep politics out of it.  This was intended to look at behavior (and what motivates it) in Sweden versus the US.
> 
> We are a free society and it is interesting to look at what some other countries have done.  On one end of the spectrum you have had some countries strong-arm their citizens through curfews, tracking, surveillance, etc.  Others like Sweden take the hands-off approach.  I guess we are somewhere in between.
> 
> ...


No issues with your post at all. 



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## Smellytele (May 8, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> No.  Because testing is greatly ramping.
> 
> More testing = more positives.
> 
> ...



Lower death rate is a number that really means nothing but actual deaths per day needs to be lower


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## Former Sunday Rivah Rat (May 8, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> No.  Because testing is greatly ramping.
> 
> More testing = more positives.
> 
> ...



I agree.  Here in MA they tested 396 people at a large homeless shelter and 148 came up positive.  They were all asymptomatic.  I believe the death rate will turn out to be a tiny fraction of what was 
predicted. 

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/14/coronavirus-boston-homeless-testing


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## nhskier1969 (May 9, 2020)

Sunday Rivah Rat said:


> I agree.  Here in MA they tested 396 people at a large homeless shelter and 148 came up positive.  They were all asymptomatic.  I believe the death rate will turn out to be a tiny fraction of what was
> predicted.
> 
> https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/14/coronavirus-boston-homeless-testing



Great article.  When this is all said and done, I bet the infected rate for US citizens who show symptoms will be less then 1%
You now if someone like me could figure this out, why couldn't the government.  They should have let the economy runs as normal.  They should have had shelter in place for people with underlining health conditions an/or people over 70.  Image the press then, it would have been non news story.    They still can do that.  If the US did this, the US would be overrun by asymptotic people.


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## 56fish (May 9, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> That was like 1000 years ago, I doubt that's what he means at this point re: overreacting.  States like Vermont have definitely overreacted to the point of absurdity with some things. That state should be well deep into its' opening up process already.



more like 1000 hours ago.

even tho my (and many, many similar small) businesses here draw 70% +/- of income from NY/NNJ Metro, Boston -  I'm way comfortable with Scott's handling of situation. 
would place my stimulus check that majority Vermonters agree  :beer:


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## VTKilarney (May 9, 2020)

56fish said:


> more like 1000 hours ago.
> 
> even tho my (and many, many similar small) businesses here draw 70% +/- of income from NY/NNJ Metro, Boston -  I'm way comfortable with Scott's handling of situation.
> would place my stimulus check that majority Vermonters agree  :beer:


This Vermonter doesn’t agree.  The entire point of “stay home, stay safe” was to avoid overwhelming the hospitals.  My local hospital has had a grand total of 2 Covid-19 patients, neither of whom needed a ventilator.  Other hospitals have similar stories.  So using the stated goal, Vermont overreacted by a wide margin.


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## icecoast1 (May 9, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> Vermont overreacted by a wide margin.



As did much of the country.   The long term effects of this are going to be much worse.  How much of a negative effect have we had by shutting down health care facilities and laying off healthcare workers, combined with canceling procedures, doctors appointments, etc?    But now the field goal posts are being moved, from "we must flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming the hospital system" which we have already done to "we must stay home til we have a cure or vaccine" something we might never have.


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## BenedictGomez (May 9, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> Vermont overreacted by a wide margin.



I dont blame them initially, but we're way past "initially" at this point, and we are now armed with much more knowledge & data about this virus, and the restrictions occurring in Vermont are completely over-the-top.

I was very confident there wouldnt be a big problem with COVID19 in Vermont & wrote about that here before the pandemic truly broke, but once that truth actually became apparent workers should have been able to provide & return to work, simply with common sense social distancing & no festivals, carnivals, etc...


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## icecoast1 (May 9, 2020)

Sunday Rivah Rat said:


> I agree.  Here in MA they tested 396 people at a large homeless shelter and 148 came up positive.  They were all asymptomatic.  I believe the death rate will turn out to be a tiny fraction of what was
> predicted.
> 
> https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/14/coronavirus-boston-homeless-testing



NY antibody tests are indicating approximately 15 percent of the population (in NY) may have been infected but never showed symptoms.  The death rate for this will be far lower than what was originally predicted and currently is.  And if you take out the shady reporting of covid deaths to inflate the death counts, it would be even lower.


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## nhskier1969 (May 9, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> NY antibody tests are indicating approximately 15 percent of the population (in NY) may have been infected but never showed symptoms.  The death rate for this will be far lower than what was originally predicted and currently is.  And if you take out the shady reporting of covid deaths to inflate the death counts, it would be even lower.



In 20 years from 
now what are we going to remember after this is all said and done.
1. This was very very bad virus.
2.  We really F*cked up the economy and allowed the media to get in our heads and overreact.


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## VTKilarney (May 9, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> As did much of the country.   The long term effects of this are going to be much worse.  How much of a negative effect have we had by shutting down health care facilities and laying off healthcare workers, combined with canceling procedures, doctors appointments, etc?    But now the field goal posts are being moved, from "we must flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming the hospital system" which we have already done to "we must stay home til we have a cure or vaccine" something we might never have.



British Columbia is saying (as of now) that it’s citizens should expect to wait 17 months for elective procedures once the hospitals fully open.


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## VTKilarney (May 9, 2020)

The dirty secret about the shutdown will be the poverty, hunger, and deaths in developing nations.  In other words, the people who used to produce the products that we used to buy.  

The United Nations World Food Programme states that by the end of the year, more than 260 million people will face starvation — double last year’s figures. 

This was about saving a few of our lives at the expense of thousands of others.


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## p_levert (May 9, 2020)

There is one death rate which has been remarkable, the death rate relative to the overall population.  In NY and NJ, slightly more than 1 of 1000 people have died, which is shocking to me.  And some people (including here) have said that NY is a special case because of the extreme density of NYC, but the same thing has happened all over the NE.  Here's the death rate comparison:

1. NY 1.4 deaths per 1000 persons
2. NJ 1.0
3. Conn 0.8
4. Mass 0.7

If the whole country achieved 1 in 1000 deaths, and it may happen, we would end up with 330k deaths.

As far as policy goes, a lot depends on whether an effective vaccine or treatment shows up by January 2021 or so.  If you believe this to be the case, it would probably make sense to lock things down and save a bunch of lives, like they have done in Washington state.  OTOH, if we assume that it will take until late 2021 to get a vaccine, you might as well just lift the lockdown because people will probably end up getting infected anyway.

Personally, I am for lifting the lockdown, but in a very controlled way.  Loosen up a little, wait three weeks, then reevaluate.


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## drjeff (May 9, 2020)

I was listening to the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast from this past Thursday where he was interviewing Elon Musk and when the conversation went to COVID-19, Elon started talking about his companies experience as they have 7000 employees in China "It's like watching the same movie all over again, except this time its in English not Chinese".... He said he had 7000 employees on his Chinese payroll both before and now "after" in China..... The Chinese economy, based on the roll it plays in global manufacturing is now wide open..... The actual death rates truly only related to COVID-19 are much lower than are being reported.....  The financial incentive for hospitals in the US to attribute deaths to COVID-19 are a major skewing factor that has undoubtedly inflated the deaths being attributed to COVID-19 in the US....


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## p_levert (May 9, 2020)

I dunno, Musk is not a stupid person, but he has a long history of controversial remarks and impulsivity.  A couple of quick comments:

1. His plant is near Shanghai, not Wuhan, so not surprising that nobody died.

2. A huge number of the covid deaths (30-50%) are attributed to nursing homes, prisons, etc.  These people are not at all interested in reporting these deaths, they would rather cover up.

3. "financial incentive for hospitals in the US to attribute deaths to COVID-19 are a major skewing factor that has undoubtedly inflated the deaths", here we go again, another conspiracy.  The death rates in the US are not dramatically different from the death rates in France, Spain, etc.  The health care system is funded in a different way completely in these countries, and yet they end up with a similar number of deaths.

4. And then there's all those people that die at home without ever having a test for CV.  These folks are undercounted, not overcounted.


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## icecoast1 (May 9, 2020)

p_levert said:


> 4. And then there's all those people that die at home without ever having a test for CV.  These folks are undercounted, not overcounted.



This is way overhyped.  Given the way this disease ends for some people, unable to breath and choking on their own fluid, theres no way people are choosing to lay at home and die like that.  And even if this were true, a death like that is now being reported after the fact anyway, this is why thousands of deaths have been added to the total in states like NY


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## deadheadskier (May 9, 2020)

The Covid reimbursement rate as a cause for over reporting is continuously talked about.  I've read a flat rate of $39k per patient. I've read the same figure only for Medicare patients.

None of what I've read has come from a verified government document. 

Can anyone produce that?

I have a hard time believing it because the hospitalization treatments aren't one size fits all. Some patients stay for a matter of days, recover and go home.  Some stay for weeks, end up on a ventilator and die. 

From my experience, hospital billing is pretty much ala carte.  Days in hospital + services provided + medication.  

The one absolutely dense comment I keep reading over and over is "follow the money!" It's so asinine.  Hospitals are losing money by the truckload because of this. Beth Israel Lahey, the second largest system in New England and the one who has handled the most Covid patients; they lost $280M in the month of March.  They want nothing more than to go back to normal operations.  So, this false idea that hospitals are somehow profiting from this crisis is the biggest bunch of BS going.  Yet, you got the plandemic type folks spreading fake news that the hospitals are benefitting from this.  

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## BenedictGomez (May 9, 2020)

p_levert said:


> *The death rates in the US are not dramatically different from the death rates in France, Spain, etc.  *The health care system is funded in a different way completely in these countries, and yet they end up with a similar number of deaths.



The death rate in the US is dramatically lower than the death rate in both France & Spain.  And that's without even accounting for the fact France & Spain's death count is probably significantly too low given their loose counting of ex hospital setting deaths.

Once again, this poster is all COVID19 doom & gloom, and factually incorrect.


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## BenedictGomez (May 9, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> The Covid reimbursement rate as a cause for over reporting is continuously talked about.  I've read a flat rate of $39k per patient. I've read the same figure only for Medicare patients.
> 
> None of what I've read has come from a verified government document.



IIRC, coding for COVID19 nets you something like $12,500 more than coding for pneumonia and/or the like, so it is significant.  That said, this is literally fraud were a hospital to do so in a false manner, so I dont think the effect of that nationwide would be material, as again, it would literally be a crime. 

 Now what I could see happening is you run the COVID19 blood test as a matter of course as a low cost test, high "reward" diagnosis if it comes up positive.


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## deadheadskier (May 9, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> This is way overhyped.  Given the way this disease ends for some people, unable to breath and choking on their own fluid, theres no way people are choosing to lay at home and die like that.  And even if this were true, a death like that is now being reported after the fact anyway, this is why thousands of deaths have been added to the total in states like NY


They actually have died like that. In NYC EMTs have shown up to plenty of residences to find arrested patients.  Those patients get one shot at a defib and some CPR.  If it doesn't work, they get DNRd and brought straight to the morgue.  That is not normal SOP.  Normal is you sustain CPR until the patient gets to the hospital and the hospital calls the death.  I know this for an absolute fact.  EMTs got so overwhelmed at the height of the curve, they didn't have enough time and manpower for standard SOP. 

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## deadheadskier (May 9, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> IIRC, coding for COVID19 nets you something like $12,500 more than coding for pneumonia and/or the like, so it is significant.  That said, this is literally fraud were a hospital to do so in a false manner, so I dont think the effect of that nationwide would be material, as again, it would literally be a crime.
> 
> Now what I could see happening is you run the COVID19 blood test as a matter of course as a low cost test, high "reward" diagnosis if it comes up positive.


Where have you read it?  Is the source verifiable?

Please share if so. 



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## nhskier1969 (May 9, 2020)

p_levert said:


> There is one death rate which has been remarkable, the death rate relative to the overall population.  In NY and NJ, slightly more than 1 of 1000 people have died, which is shocking to me.  And some people (including here) have said that NY is a special case because of the extreme density of NYC, but the same thing has happened all over the NE.  Here's the death rate comparison:
> 
> 1. NY 1.4 deaths per 1000 persons
> 2. NJ 1.0
> ...



I disagree with the death rate you are showing.  This doesn't include the asymptotic people who weren't tested and the Hospital misreporting.  First off there are 30-50 times more people that have it than reported.  So you bring that 330k down about 30-50%.  Also did you read a couple of post ago about an article from WBUR,  they tested all the homeless one day at the Pine Street inn.  36% of them tested positive.  Ever case was asymptotic.  So again this has probably already spread to 30-50 million people.  So what would the death date be then.  This also doesn't include the people who are immune.


----------



## Not Sure (May 9, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> IIRC, coding for COVID19 nets you something like $12,500 more than coding for pneumonia and/or the like, so it is significant.  That said, this is literally fraud were a hospital to do so in a false manner, so I dont think the effect of that nationwide would be material, as again, it would literally be a crime.
> 
> Now what I could see happening is you run the COVID19 blood test as a matter of course as a low cost test, high "reward" diagnosis if it comes up positive.



If that’s the case I would be inclined to look the other way . The Hospital layoffs ( permanent) are just starting, cant elaborate too much but I know someone who’s department just shed 15 out of 70 fte positions. They aren’t direct patient care but important none the less .


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## Former Sunday Rivah Rat (May 9, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> The dirty secret about the shutdown will be the poverty, hunger, and deaths in developing nations.  In other words, the people who used to produce the products that we used to buy.
> 
> The United Nations World Food Programme states that by the end of the year, more than 260 million people will face starvation — double last year’s figures.
> 
> This was about saving a few of our lives at the expense of thousands of others.



Let's see the "Lockdown Social Justice Warriors" rationalize starving tens of millions of people to death.  
They could not be that stupid, this was predictable.  There is evil intent at work.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/cor...ines-could-double-global-hunger-un-warns.html


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## Smellytele (May 9, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> I disagree with the death rate you are showing.  This doesn't include the asymptotic people who weren't tested and the Hospital misreporting.  First off there are 30-50 times more people that have it than reported.  So you bring that 330k down about 30-50%.  Also did you read a couple of post ago about an article from WBUR,  they tested all the homeless one day at the Pine Street inn.  36% of them tested positive.  Ever case was asymptotic.  So again this has probably already spread to 30-50 million people.  So what would the death date be then.  This also doesn't include the people who are immune.



The death rates he is showing is 1 out of 1000 NY residents not 1 out of 1000 people who have tested positive for covid.


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## BenedictGomez (May 9, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> Where have you read it?  Is the source verifiable?
> 
> Please share if so.



Straight from the gubment CARES plan.

https://www.aha.org/advisory/2020-0...es-guidance-implementing-cares-act-provisions


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## p_levert (May 10, 2020)

The death rate relative to the overall population is really the only health statistic that matters.  Here's an expanded list of what I posted earlier:

NY 1.38 deaths per 1000 persons in general population
NJ 1.03
Conn 0.82
Mass 0.70
Louisiana 0.49
Michigan 0.45
Illinois 0.26
Washington state 0.12
Florida 0.08
California 0.07
Texas 0.04

Lots of deaths in the NE corridor and also spreading over to Illinois.  Not so much in the south and west.  I do think TX, FL and CA dodge the bullet for now, due to a climate advantage.  But watch out for next fall.

Here's a comparison of the US vs. other countries:

Belgium 0.75
Spain 0.57
Italy 0.50
UK 0.47
France 0.40
Sweden 0.32
USA 0.24
Germany 0.09
Denmark 0.09
Finland 0.05
Norway 0.04

So our death rate is already half of the death rate for Italy.  And, of course, Italy got started several weeks before us and is now well past the peak.  Also, the health care system in Italy got seriously overwhelmed.


----------



## p_levert (May 10, 2020)

FYI, all death rate data from www.worldometers.info/coronavirus .  Great site!


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## BenedictGomez (May 10, 2020)

p_levert said:


> FYI, all death rate data from www.worldometers.info/coronavirus .*  Great site!*



Yeah; too bad you didnt find it before posting that nonsense yesterday about America's death rate not being much different from France & Spain.


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## Zermatt (May 11, 2020)

p_levert said:


> The death rate relative to the overall population is really the only health statistic that matters.  Here's an expanded list of what I posted earlier:
> 
> NY 1.38 deaths per 1000 persons in general population
> NJ 1.03
> ...



People need to start getting really insensitive and telling it like it is, then everyone can judge their personal risk.

Remove nursing home fatalities (account for 50% of deaths in CT, yet only make up about 25,000 people in a state of 3.6m).

Remove deaths over whatever age group you like (you decide).  I choose the 80+ age group.  Close to 60% of deaths in CT are coming from this group that make up 3% of the population

Remove deaths for severely obese people, cancer patients on chemo with no immune system.

Then, figure out what the damn denominator really is and we can start moving forward.


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## dblskifanatic (May 11, 2020)

billo said:


> People need to start getting really insensitive and telling it like it is, then everyone can judge their personal risk.
> 
> Remove nursing home fatalities (account for 50% of deaths in CT, yet only make up about 25,000 people in a state of 3.6m).
> 
> ...



I agree!  I also feel like people should be left to their own decisions.  If restaurants open, I know people that will go including my family but I also know people that will remain in this state of isolation on their own for quite some time out of fear.  We have been hiking, golfing kayaking mountain biking, paddle boarding and visiting points of interest.  We also shop and order out.  We ran into lots of people that are starting to take things into their own hands!  Three restaurants opened here in Colorado defying state orders.

There will be a new state of paranoia / germa phobes.  Yesterday we saw people mountain biking with masks on.  We also say people out on the water with masks on - I don’t get it!

There are people I know that never return to normal because they do not want their kids to get sick or make their aging parents sick or they have their own underlying conditions.

While some states start to open things up, there are many that are starting panic.


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## JimG. (May 11, 2020)

dblskifanatic said:


> There will be a new state of paranoia / germa phobes.  Yesterday we saw people mountain biking with masks on.  We also say people out on the water with masks on - I don’t get it!
> 
> There are people I know that never return to normal because they do not want their kids to get sick or make their aging parents sick or they have their own underlying conditions.
> 
> While some states start to open things up, there are many that are starting panic.



I wear a mask when out in public to run errands or shop, but only to avoid the damning stares of the coronavirus lockdown police. Those people are everywhere it seems.

I draw the line on wearing a mask doing things like going fishing, hiking, skiing, etc.

I think we are at the point where those who are at risk need to isolate while everyone else gets back to a "normal" life.


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## Smellytele (May 11, 2020)

JimG. said:


> I wear a mask when out in public to run errands or shop, but only to avoid the damning stares of the coronavirus lockdown police. Those people are everywhere it seems.
> 
> I draw the line on wearing a mask doing things like going fishing, hiking, skiing, etc.
> 
> I think we are at the point where those who are at risk need to isolate while everyone else gets back to a "normal" life.



I agree but with skiing it isn't the skiing it is the waiting in line part and riding on lifts with strangers.


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## BenedictGomez (May 11, 2020)

JimG. said:


> I think we are at the point where those who are at risk need to isolate while everyone else gets back to a "normal" life.



That was my idea from day one & I believe it was the right course of action.


----------



## icecoast1 (May 11, 2020)

JimG. said:


> I think we are at the point where those who are at risk need to isolate while everyone else gets back to a "normal" life.



The action that should have happened from the beginning rather than the gross overreaction we've been living through


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## Hawk (May 11, 2020)

Of course you two are right.  Your always fucking right about everything.  Why do we even bother listing to anybody else.  My gawd.


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## Hawk (May 11, 2020)

Interesting conversation I had with a long time career Marine friend of mine.  He is now retiring but served for years as one of the commanders down at Paris Island.  He told me that all armed forces got a memo that they are not to enlist anybody that has tested positive for corona.  So what do they know that we don't?  I just find that interesting.


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## cdskier (May 11, 2020)

Hawk said:


> Of course you two are right.  Your always fucking right about everything.  Why do we even bother listing to anybody else.  My gawd.



Yup. There's no point in arguing with the AZ panel of world class experts in this thread on epidemiology, virology, and immunology.

Seriously though...I'm still curious how you would isolate just the "at risk" people as some here have suggested. If someone ran the numbers, you'd probably have over half the US considered "at risk" (the US isn't exactly the epitome of great health). Obesity alone which is considered one of the risk factors for hospitalization with COVID accounts for over 40% of the adult US population. And it isn't just the "at risk" people that would need to isolate...it is anyone they live with as well in theory.

My brother had a "mild" case and said just walking up and down the stairs in his house felt like he had run a marathon.


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## BenedictGomez (May 11, 2020)

Hawk said:


> Of course you two are right.  Your always fucking right about everything.  Why do we even bother listing to anybody else.  My gawd.



I'd love to easily prove your dopey comment wrong, but the AZ Illuminati saw fit to needlessly delete the thread in which I wrote it.


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## JimG. (May 11, 2020)

Hawk said:


> Interesting conversation I had with a long time career Marine friend of mine.  He is now retiring but served for years as one of the commanders down at Paris Island.  He told me that all armed forces got a memo that they are not to enlist anybody that has tested positive for corona.  So what do they know that we don't?  I just find that interesting.



Seems like a logical policy...why would the armed forces want people who tested positive for coronavirus in the close quarters of the military? That would be a good way to incapacitate large numbers of soldiers.


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## dblskifanatic (May 11, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> That was my idea from day one & I believe it was the right course of action.



+++++1


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## JimG. (May 11, 2020)

cdskier said:


> Yup. There's no point in arguing with the AZ panel of world class experts in this thread on epidemiology, virology, and immunology.
> 
> Seriously though...I'm still curious how you would isolate just the "at risk" people as some here have suggested. If someone ran the numbers, you'd probably have over half the US considered "at risk" (the US isn't exactly the epitome of great health). Obesity alone which is considered one of the risk factors for hospitalization with COVID accounts for over 40% of the adult US population. And it isn't just the "at risk" people that would need to isolate...it is anyone they live with as well in theory.
> 
> My brother had a "mild" case and said just walking up and down the stairs in his house felt like he had run a marathon.



I call it personal choice and responsibility. 

Are you telling me that most at risk individuals have no idea they are at risk?


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## Zermatt (May 11, 2020)

cdskier said:


> Yup. There's no point in arguing with the AZ panel of world class experts in this thread on epidemiology, virology, and immunology.
> 
> Seriously though...I'm still curious how you would isolate just the "at risk" people as some here have suggested. If someone ran the numbers, you'd probably have over half the US considered "at risk" (the US isn't exactly the epitome of great health). Obesity alone which is considered one of the risk factors for hospitalization with COVID accounts for over 40% of the adult US population. And it isn't just the "at risk" people that would need to isolate...it is anyone they live with as well in theory.
> 
> My brother had a "mild" case and said just walking up and down the stairs in his house felt like he had run a marathon.



I'm not obese, nobody in my family is either. Start having real conversations about how being obese is not okay.


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## dblskifanatic (May 11, 2020)

Hawk said:


> Interesting conversation I had with a long time career Marine friend of mine.  He is now retiring but served for years as one of the commanders down at Paris Island.  He told me that all armed forces got a memo that they are not to enlist anybody that has tested positive for corona.  So what do they know that we don't?  I just find that interesting.



My son enlisted a year ago as a delayed enlistment and he is scheduled to go on June 1st.  Be interesting what hey do!  He thought they may delay but they said no delays!


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## deadheadskier (May 11, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'd love to easily prove your dopey comment wrong, but the AZ Illuminati saw fit to needlessly delete the thread in which I wrote it.


Doubling down! lol

His point flew right over your head.  

Let me spell it out for you.  If the active members of this forum threw a buck into a pot each time over the years you have said, "I was right" we could probably fully fund an AZ summit at the Northeast mountain of your choice. 

Not sure why you work so hard to try and prove how often you are "right" and just how smart you are.  Nobody cares.  

If it makes you feel better, yes I do remember you saying that.  Good job buddy!  





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## cdskier (May 11, 2020)

JimG. said:


> I call it personal choice and responsibility.
> 
> Are you telling me that most at risk individuals have no idea they are at risk?



No. That's not at all what I'm saying. It is irrelevant whether they know. The problem is I don't see a realistic and practical way for those people to simply isolate themselves from the rest of society. There are far too many of them. It isn't like they all live together in a bubble somewhere. They're co-mingled with everyone else. What about a perfectly healthy middle-aged person that cares for an elderly parent (who would automatically be in a high risk category due to age)? In order for that older person to isolate, the person that cares for them needs to isolate as well. Or what if you have a wife, husband, or child with diabetes? Or asthma? Or hypertension? You could have a family of 5 where only 1 person has a high risk factor, but to properly isolate that 1 person, everyone in the family needs to isolate. It isn't like you can simply ship that 1 risk factor person off to Isolationville so the rest of the family can carry on "normally". There's simply too much cross-over between risk factor groups.

And now of course all those people with high risk factors come from a wide variety of jobs...so there would be a rather significant impact to workforce availability anyway. What's the solution there?


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## JimG. (May 11, 2020)

cdskier said:


> No. That's not at all what I'm saying. It is irrelevant whether they know. The problem is I don't see a realistic and practical way for those people to simply isolate themselves from the rest of society. There are far too many of them. It isn't like they all live together in a bubble somewhere. They're co-mingled with everyone else. What about a perfectly healthy middle-aged person that cares for an elderly parent (who would automatically be in a high risk category due to age)? In order for that older person to isolate, the person that cares for them needs to isolate as well. Or what if you have a wife, husband, or child with diabetes? Or asthma? Or hypertension? You could have a family of 5 where only 1 person has a high risk factor, but to properly isolate that 1 person, everyone in the family needs to isolate. It isn't like you can simply ship that 1 risk factor person off to Isolationville so the rest of the family can carry on "normally". There's simply too much cross-over between risk factor groups.
> 
> And now of course all those people with high risk factors come from a wide variety of jobs...so there would be a rather significant impact to workforce availability anyway. What's the solution there?



It's a virus...there is no solution that means positive outcomes for everyone. There has never been a pandemic that did not inflict widespread suffering. It sucks.

Trying to reconcile all the inputs you justifiably mentioned there just made my head hurt.


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## ScottySkis (May 11, 2020)

cdskier said:


> Yup. There's no point in arguing with the AZ panel of world class experts in this thread on epidemiology, virology, and immunology.
> 
> Seriously though...I'm still curious how you would isolate just the "at risk" people as some here have suggested. If someone ran the numbers, you'd probably have over half the US considered "at risk" (the US isn't exactly the epitome of great health). Obesity alone which is considered one of the risk factors for hospitalization with COVID accounts for over 40% of the adult US population. And it isn't just the "at risk" people that would need to isolate...it is anyone they live with as well in theory.
> 
> My brother had a "mild" case and said just walking up and down the stairs in his house felt like he had run a marathon.



+100
That's part reasons for me to not come on AZ to much


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## cdskier (May 11, 2020)

JimG. said:


> It's a virus...there is no solution that means positive outcomes for everyone. There has never been a pandemic that did not inflict widespread suffering. It sucks.
> 
> Trying to reconcile all the inputs you justifiably mentioned there just made my head hurt.



Exactly...

A few pages back someone made a claim that the "isolate high risk factor group" solution would have resulted in this entire thing being a "non-news story". I'm not going to say that the decisions that were made were necessarily all right. Quite honestly I don't think we have anywhere near enough data to truly know what the "right" response would have been. And I do think there may be parts of the country that over-reacted (although I don't generally include the northeast in this as the entire area is far too close to the original major hotspots in the NYC/NJ area). However I will say that my response to the "isolate only high risk groups" solution is twofold:
1) It isn't anywhere near as simple as people make it sound.
2) It still wouldn't have allowed life for everyone else to carry on anywhere close to "normal" as some people pretend it would have.


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## JimG. (May 11, 2020)

I guess my point is that the "solution" we are currently living with is not going to be sustainable.


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## BenedictGomez (May 12, 2020)

JimG. said:


> It's a virus...there is no solution that means positive outcomes for everyone. There has never been a pandemic that did not inflict widespread suffering. It sucks.



Bingo. 

Doesn't mean it wasn't the correct course of action.


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## Hawk (May 12, 2020)

So I guess my perspective is different.  I am sure those of you who feel you were unjustly cooped up have a different perspective because you do not know or seen much of the virus.  This is where I come from so you understand why I cringe every time you guys say this is all bull shit.  The fact is I know know 14 people that have come down with the virus.  Not all close personal friends but people I have actually met at least once. 2 nurses, 7 older people, 1 EMT and 3 guys and 1 girl that are between 40 and 50.  All are in my circles in the eastern part of MA.  Of those people 5 have passed away.  3 were older between 60 and 80 but 2 were not. One was a nurse that was 45 years old and one was a guy that was 50.  Both were avid outdoors people in extremely good health  The guy was someone I mountain biked with and he was very strong.  I say if those people can die then there is a chance I can die.  That is enough to give me pause when doing anything outside my house.  I find myself not trusting anybody.  Not even my family. So the death rate in my little world is 35%.  I am going to stay the fuck away from everybody for the foreseeable future.  You can do what you want.


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## Smellytele (May 12, 2020)

So to isolate all high risk people do we need to weigh everyone to say they are part of the obese group. More people are obese by standards than would like to omit. 


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## tumbler (May 12, 2020)

Hawk said:


> So I guess my perspective is different.  I am sure those of you who feel you were unjustly cooped up have a different perspective because you do not know or seen much of the virus.  This is where I come from so you understand why I cringe every time you guys say this is all bull shit.  The fact is I know know 14 people that have come down with the virus.  Not all close personal friends but people I have actually met at least once. 2 nurses, 7 older people, 1 EMT and 3 guys and 1 girl that are between 40 and 50.  All are in my circles in the eastern part of MA.  Of those people 5 have passed away.  3 were older between 60 and 80 but 2 were not. One was a nurse that was 45 years old and one was a guy that was 50.  Both were avid outdoors people in extremely good health  The guy was someone I mountain biked with and he was very strong.  I say if those people can die then there is a chance I can die.  That is enough to give me pause when doing anything outside my house.  I find myself not trusting anybody.  Not even my family. So the death rate in my little world is 35%.  I am going to stay the fuck away from everybody for the foreseeable future.  You can do what you want.



+1000.  Most people have not had any direct impacts from this and buy that this is "just a flu"  What worries me more is when another, more deadly one shows up and people say screw that, we so overreacted to the COVID-19.  

I wish everything in this country didn't come down to political parties.  It seems to matter more whether you are red or blue than the safety and well being of fellow Americans.


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## ss20 (May 12, 2020)

Both "sides" have good points, hence I'm also one for letting those who want to go out go out and those who want to isolate, isolate.  Staying inside and hunkering down is a really good idea for the next six months or so...this is nasty if you catch it and there definitely a chance you will die, slight, but a real chance.  I can see that viewpoint.  That said I'm one of those who if Killington (or a race track, or my favorite restaurant) said they were opening up tomorrow I'd be there even if the admission price was having to lick a communal doorknob.


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## BenedictGomez (May 12, 2020)

Hawk said:


> *I am going to stay the fuck away from everybody for the foreseeable future.  You can do what you want.*



Sort of like a free country.  Sounds good to me.


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## BenedictGomez (May 12, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> So to isolate all high risk people do we need to weigh everyone to say they are part of the obese group. *More people are obese by standards than would like to omit. *



Yes, but it's also important to note (since the media wont do anything for you that will lower the panic & fear factor) that the COVID19 "obese" people running into problems and dying from the virus do not tend to be the people who are "obese" by our absurdly low & outdated BMI standards which are currently used to codify "obese" people, but by the eye test of, _"wow, that person really needs to lose weight"_, standard.  Morbidly obese people and the like.


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## EPB (May 12, 2020)

ss20 said:


> ...I'm also one for letting those who want to go out go out and those who want to isolate, isolate.  Staying inside and hunkering down is a really good idea for the next six months or so...this is nasty if you catch it and there definitely a chance you will die, slight, but a real chance...



Agreed. If you're too much of a partisan to understand you are not at risk of dying from this thing unless you are old or have a pre-existing condition (obesity included), or both, be my guest and stay at home. No need to be a tyrant and advocate vast swaths of the country lose their livelihood to make you feel safer when you're just going to stay inside anyway.

And this coming from a ~30 year old who can probably last a good two years before running out of money if he got canned this afternoon (generously assuming rent wouldn't crater if things were actually that bad). I'll be more than okay if we stay locked down for several more months. 

It's almost as though people never got the message about what "flattening the curve" meant. Despite the totally understandable hysterics down here in greater NYC, we never got close to using all the resources that were sent our way. We kept the spread under the magic line, so we did "flatten the curve" in the sense that we never rationed life saving medical treatment. The thing those that never took Calculus 2 (or never properly thought the curve flattening through) seem to miss is the area under the curve doesn't change. That means the same number of people get infected in either scenario. The whole issue was whether we would need to ration care and unnecessary deaths would happen as a result. The same number of people get infected under either scenario. 

There are three things that really matter here:
1) Are we going to overwhelm the healthcare system? 
2) Is a legitimate "game changing" therapeutic going to come to the market imminently? - and I mean by a more robust standard than the one used by #45.
3) Is a vaccine coming imminently?

-We seem to be approaching the point where 1 is kinda low risk. We're certainly better prepared to make sure this doesn't happen today given testing, better knowledge, and the fact that millions have already contracted the disease. 
-2 and 3 are total unknowns, but unless you believe one or both are imminent, then staying home just kills more businesses/jobs and only delays the inevitable number of COVID cases and deaths. Flattening the curve does not mean eliminating the curve. The only people saved by flattening the curve are those who would have been denied care due to hospital space shortages (the way this point has been bastardized by the media is a high crime to those who appreciate the study and proper application statistics).
-There are massive health downsides to being afraid of going/unable to go to the hospital for elective procedures which don't always feel "elective" to those who are counting on them; mental health issues, alcohol/drug abuse are serious concerns to anyone with sympathy towards those with fragile mental health states or those who are at risk to be abused by impaired spouses/parents.

If I'm missing something, happy to consider more, but I frankly think this has been made partisan because outrage sells more ad space - not because a planned and sensible reopening isn't the obvious objective right choice.


----------



## p_levert (May 12, 2020)

eastern powder baby said:


> There are three things that really matter here:
> 1) Are we going to overwhelm the healthcare system?
> 2) Is a legitimate "game changing" therapeutic going to come to the market imminently? - and I mean by a more robust standard than the one used by #45.
> 3) Is a vaccine coming imminently?
> ...



Nice post eastern powder baby.  And I agree that we're probably not going to overwhelm the health care system.  Actually, the current problem might be "what the f*ck are we going to do with all those ventilators".

Not sure about effective treatment.  But I am optimistic about the vaccine.  Fauci, who's quite a cautious guy, said today there's a good chance of a vaccine by "late fall/early winter".  Coming from a cautious guy, I think this means something.

I don't think it's really a simple choice between "open now" and "stay locked down".  It's possible to choose a middle ground where the opening is cautious with significant monitoring to check for infection rebound.


----------



## JimG. (May 12, 2020)

Hawk said:


> So I guess my perspective is different.  I am sure those of you who feel you were unjustly cooped up have a different perspective because you do not know or seen much of the virus.



Please spare us the "you don't know the horrors of this because you have not experienced it" attitude.

My mother-in-law passed away from COVID-19 last Tuesday.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 12, 2020)

eastern powder baby said:


> *
> It's almost as though people never got the message about what "flattening the curve" meant.* Despite the totally understandable hysterics down here in greater NYC, we never got close to using all the resources that were sent our way. We kept the spread under the magic line, so we did "flatten the curve" in the sense that we never rationed life saving medical treatment.



Senator Scott gave a fantastic little speech on this today in the Senate hearings, essentially suggesting that it would seem as if some are content on practically never reopening the country and/or acting as if all 50 states are New York City.  He did so in a thoughtful, respectful, but pungent way.



p_levert said:


> *Fauci*, who's quite a cautious guy, *said today* *there's a good chance of a vaccine by "late fall/early winter".  *



Golly, that would be way less than 1 year to 1.5 years, wouldn't it.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 12, 2020)

JimG. said:


> *Please spare us the "you don't know the horrors of this because you have not experienced it" attitude.*
> 
> My mother-in-law passed away from COVID-19 last Tuesday.



Hawk frequently delves into these little self-righteous _"I am a better person than you"_ speeches on myriad subjects.  This time it bit him in the ass.   Sorry for you & your wife's loss.  I have had 3 family members (2 mine, 1 my wife's) come down with COVID19, one hospitalized for a week & is thank god now fine.   You can have the opinion that America's COVID19 reaction is now overdone while still having people you love affected by the virus.


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## p_levert (May 12, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> *Quote Originally Posted by p_levert View Post
> Fauci, who's quite a cautious guy, said today there's a good chance of a vaccine by "late fall/early winter".*
> 
> Golly, that would be way less than 1 year to 1.5 years, wouldn't it.



I make a point of not responding to BenedictGomez because he's a consistently rude guy.  He's the only person I exclude, because everyone else is fine by me, whether I agree with them or not.

When did I ever say 1 year to 1.5 years for a vaccine?  I never said that.


----------



## EPB (May 12, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Senator Scott gave a fantastic little speech on this today in the Senate hearings, essentially suggesting that it would seem as if some are content on practically never reopening the country and/or acting as if all 50 states are New York City.  He did so in a thoughtful, respectful, but pungent way.



Yeah this a local pandemic in NYC area on a level the rest of the country will hopefully never see.

As an anecdote, I was talking to my brother who still lives in NH a couple weeks ago. He was talking about how in Littleton, NH, the cops/firefighters did one of those little drive up, turn on the lights/sirens and wave at the hospital worker salutes like you've probably seen on TV in NYC. For those that don't know, Littleton is about halfway between Burke and Cannon on I-93 on the NH/VT border. Apparently, there was also a pretty strong chance there wasn't a single COVID patient in the hospital at the time of the salute given how few people had the disease in that part of the state and the fact that COVID patients were more likely to be sent to Dartmouth anyway.


----------



## EPB (May 12, 2020)

p_levert said:


> I make a point of not responding to BenedictGomez because he's a consistently rude guy.  He's the only person I exclude, because everyone else is fine by me, whether I agree with them or not.
> 
> When did I ever say 1 year to 1.5 years for a vaccine?  I never said that.



I have no idea if you did and am happy to take your word for it. I hope we get one ASAP, too.

If I had to guess, he's probably referring to characters like Brian Stelter who called Trump an idiot for suggesting a vaccine in 2020 was possible. I even read in one of Fbrissette's local papers in Canada (La Presse - to practice my French), and even they had an article suggesting Trump "pretends" a vaccine is possible this year. Why reporters who likely aren't capable of handicapping those odds one way or another think they need to take such a strong stance on the issue was odd to me, but oh well.

That said, you seem to be trying to sift through what Fauci and team is saying which is the best approach I've been able to come up with.


----------



## p_levert (May 12, 2020)

eastern powder baby said:


> If I had to guess, he's probably referring to characters like Brian Stelter who called Trump an idiot for suggesting a vaccine in 2020 was possible. I even read in one of Fbrissette's local papers in Canada (La Presse - to practice my French), and even they had an article suggesting Trump "pretends" a vaccine is possible this year. Why reporters who likely aren't capable of handicapping those odds one way or another think they need to take such a strong stance on the issue was odd to me, but oh well.
> 
> That said, you seem to be trying to sift through what Fauci and team is saying which is the best approach I've been able to come up with.



The quality of debate goes down fast when people stereotype each other and assume that a person is a "lib" or "trump supporter" or whatever.  We're all individuals, regardless of who we voted for in the last election.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 12, 2020)

p_levert said:


> I make a point of not responding to BenedictGomez because he's a consistently rude guy.  He's the only person I exclude



Oh, gimme a break. Then rather than being passive aggressive, whiny, and temperamental, use the _"ignore"_ feature. Too rude?



eastern powder baby said:


> there was also a pretty strong chance there wasn't a single COVID patient in the hospital at the time of the salute given



There are plenty of non-affected regions in America.  

Today Senator Collins talked about how dental offices in Maine are or were all shut down for so long that people with simple cavities now need root canals, people who needed simple root canals are now getting teeth pulled, and worse. 

 There are real, serious consequences to shutting down entire swaths of the country which simply do not need to be shut down.   I was reading yesterday how "expected deaths" in population sets are jumping higher than what is likely explainable simply from COVID19, and one hypothesis is that with hundreds of millions of people not able to seek routine and/or preventative medical care, things that would have been potentially life-saving are not being caught (e.g. _I think you need an EKG, Mr. Jones_ - and instead Mr. Jones dies 6 weeks later from a heart attack).


----------



## EPB (May 12, 2020)

p_levert said:


> The quality of debate goes down fast when people stereotype each other and assume that a person is a "lib" or "trump supporter" or whatever.  We're all individuals, regardless of who we voted for in the last election.



Agreed. One can be solutions-oriented or political at times like this. I'm certainly more of a pragmatist than a partisan.


----------



## Hawk (May 12, 2020)

eastern powder baby said:


> Agreed. If you're too much of a partisan to understand you are not at risk of dying from this thing unless you are old or have a pre-existing condition (obesity included), or both, be my guest and stay at home. No need to be a tyrant and advocate vast swaths of the country lose their livelihood to make you feel safer when you're just going to stay inside anyway.
> 
> And this coming from a ~30 year old who can probably last a good two years before running out of money if he got canned this afternoon (generously assuming rent wouldn't crater if things were actually that bad). I'll be more than okay if we stay locked down for several more months.
> 
> ...



So what about the guy i knew that died and was in great shape with no preexisting conditions? he made it to the hospital, got care, declined and then checked out.  I bet he was in better shape than you.  So you are in total denial that you could possibly have a bad reaction to this?  You make is sound like you are immune.  That is my problem.  Sadly, eventually someone on here is going to pay.  I have no idea who but it will happen.  I bet next fall when this comes back and 10 fold.


----------



## EPB (May 12, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> There are real, serious consequences to shutting down entire swaths of the country which simply do not need to be shut down.   I was reading yesterday how "expected deaths" in population sets are jumping higher than what is likely explainable simply from COVID19, and one hypothesis is that with hundreds of millions of people not able to seek routine and/or preventative medical care, things that would have been potentially life-saving are not being caught (e.g. _I think you need an EKG, Mr. Jones_ - and instead Mr. Jones dies 6 weeks later from a heart attack).



It's pretty sad that it is somehow considered "partisan" to point this out. I really want to elaborate further, but not trying to keep this above the fray.


----------



## EPB (May 12, 2020)

Hawk said:


> So what about the guy i knew that died and was in great shape with no preexisting conditions? he made it to the hospital, got care, declined and then checked out.  I bet he was in better shape than you.  So you are in total denial that you could possibly have a bad reaction to this?  You make is sound like you are immune.  That is my problem.  Sadly, eventually someone on here is going to pay.  I have no idea who but it will happen.  I bet next fall when this comes back and 10 fold.



Hawk, first I want to say that you have my sincere condolences that you lost friends/loved ones, but this is an emotional rant and not an objective look at the facts. You mentioned your personal experience "death rate" is 35%. Mine is 0%. The problem is, objectively, the death rate is under 1%. Who you know that had it vs. who I know is irrelevant when we're talking about the totality of the disease.

Am I in denial? I certainly don't think so, but you decide. I will say you seemed to have grossly oversimplified my position on the matter. 

As a healthy ~30 year old, I had a better chance getting killed in a car accident on the way to work in the year leading up to the shutdown than I do from COVID-19 before a vaccine comes out. 

The latest death rate numbers I've heard floated around are in the 1/1,500 to 1/5,000 range for my cohort. That includes the obese, asthmatics, smokers, vapers, etc. Fortunately, I don't knowingly check off any of the "risk factors" which means my chances should be considerably lower than 1/1,500-1/5,000. 

Is there a chance that I do have some unknown/dormant condition that would make me susceptible to the disease? Sure. I hate to speculate, but if I were a betting man, I would suspect your friend probably had an un-diagnosed reason why they were succumbed when they otherwise seemed so healthy. Our doctors are great, but not perfect.

If you have a problem with my analysis of the situation, go ahead and poke holes in it. More than happy to hear something new. But I do talk with my parents, who are both retired physicians, on this quite frequently. My opinion certainly leans on their professional ones and not oneoff anecdotal evidence.


----------



## Hawk (May 12, 2020)

eastern powder baby said:


> Hawk, first I want to say that you have my sincere condolences that you lost friends/loved ones, but this is an emotional rant and not an objective look at the facts. You mentioned your personal experience "death rate" is 35%. Mine is 0%. The problem is, objectively, the death rate is under 1%. Who you know that had it vs. who I know is irrelevant when we're talking about the totality of the disease.
> 
> Am I in denial? I certainly don't think so, but you decide. I will say you seemed to have grossly oversimplified my position on the matter.
> 
> ...



Your right.  I am sorry I did simplify greatly on what were saying. You have provided data and numbers that are all very thought out. You have made a hypothesis, supported it with fact and came up with a reasoned conclusion.  But, for me on this particular situation it is simple.  If there is a chance I could either die or infect the ones I love that is enough of a reason.  I've seen what can happen.  I could not live with the prospect of killing someone I love because I was either reckless or thought I was low risk or what ever.  killing myself skiing or biking or doing dangerous shit is my choice.  It is just me.  This thing kills others and shitty part is you just don't know.  I hope you live safe and clean for a long time and proove me wrong but I really feel the odds are changing, even as we speak.  This coming fall and winter will define everything as we go forward.  We will see.


----------



## EPB (May 12, 2020)

Hawk said:


> Your right.  I am sorry I did simplify greatly on what were saying. You have provided data and numbers that are all very thought out. You have made a hypothesis, supported it with fact and came up with a reasoned conclusion.  But, for me on this particular situation it is simple.  If there is a chance I could either die or infect the ones I love that is enough of a reason.  I've seen what can happen.  I could not live with the prospect of killing someone I love because I was either reckless or thought I was low risk or what ever.  killing myself skiing or biking or doing dangerous shit is my choice.  It is just me.  This thing kills others and shitty part is you just don't know.  I hope you live safe and clean for a long time and proove me wrong but I really feel the odds are changing, even as we speak.  This coming fall and winter will define everything as we go forward.  We will see.



No worries. I have no idea when I'll feel comfortable seeing my parents again. Selfishly it would be great news if it turns out they got it and beat it a few months ago, but we'll see. That said, my wife has a few family members in the 80+ cohort, which will be especially tough to navigate. 

My guess is we'll get back to a "new normal" which will include lots of masks, wider distancing and lots of sanitation sooner rather than later. Hopefully, it doesn't blow up in our collective faces. 

Stay strong. Again, you have my condolences. What you experienced is tragedy.


----------



## machski (May 12, 2020)

Hawk said:


> So what about the guy i knew that died and was in great shape with no preexisting conditions? he made it to the hospital, got care, declined and then checked out.  I bet he was in better shape than you.  So you are in total denial that you could possibly have a bad reaction to this?  You make is sound like you are immune.  That is my problem.  Sadly, eventually someone on here is going to pay.  I have no idea who but it will happen.  I bet next fall when this comes back and 10 fold.


Unfortunately Hawk, with a novel virus, its not necessarily how fit you are from an athletic standpoint or body, its the interior anatomy fitness.  Namely, a person's immune system and most of us have no clue how fit/robust ours is to deal with this virus.  So yes, if one gets the virus it is a bit of Russian roulette as you have no idea the quality of the round in the chamber so to speak.

Sent from my SM-T830 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## p_levert (May 12, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Oh, gimme a break. Then rather than being passive aggressive, whiny, and temperamental, use the _"ignore"_ feature. Too rude?



Let's see, Eastern Powder Baby "I have no idea if you did and am happy to take your word for it. I hope we get one ASAP, too.".

Then there's you: "rather than being passive aggressive, whiny, and temperamental, use the _"ignore"_ feature."

Who would be the rude dude?  BTW, no sign of an apology for attributing something to me that I didn't say.

We do have a problem with these threads.  Sooner or later, they get toxic.  Then they get deleted.  And I think this is a shame because it's a worthy topic.  It's a good thing that we have people from different situations that don't necessarily agree.

So what do we do?  How about BenedictGomez self-quarantines from posting on CV-19 for a month?  I bet this fixes the problem.


----------



## JimG. (May 12, 2020)

All we seem to talk about is the death and sickness. There is so much more to this than that.

How about my youngest son who is a senior in high school and who has not seen his friends or teachers since mid-March? Who will not go to a prom or even a commencement for his graduation? He'll get a diploma in the mail. And now he has to decide which of his remaining 2 college choices to attend...oh wait, he might not get to attend this fall. And even if he goes he has the real prospect of spending time at home in front of a computer for online classes. Which is not college at all and a total waste of money. How do you think he feels?

Or my oldest son who started a new job in late January only to be laid off late last month? It's already hard enough for young people to make their way in life. This is making it impossible!

I already hear the "wow talk about first world problems" chorus but I don't care. It is just as important to consider the lives of the young, healthy and unaffected as it is to protect the vulnerable. What really pisses me off is that most of this nationwide (not this specific AZ forum thread) conversation is treated as just another discussion of partisan politics. It seems nobody wants to see the totality of the mess that has been created! 

Frankly we are all hopeless.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 12, 2020)

p_levert said:


> no sign of an apology for attributing something to me that I didn't say.
> We do have a problem with these threads.  Sooner or later, they get toxic.  Then they get deleted.



You once mentioned how "experts" said it would be a very long time before a vaccine was available in the thread was deleted, I presumed that meant you agreed.  But fine, I'll apologize if you makes you feel better.  Doesn't change the fact you post factually incorrect doom & gloom COVID19 information here.  Two days ago took the cake when you posted something obviously known to be false by anyone following COVID19 even remotely closely & then you yourself immediately posted a link demonstrating you were incorrect.  That was a doozy.   And no, we dont have "a problem" with these threads getting deleted.  Deleted threads are extremely rare on AZ, and almost never happen (which is a good thing).



p_levert said:


> So what do we do?  How about BenedictGomez self-quarantines from posting on CV-19 for a month?



So what do we do? How about you get some tummy-time or simply ignore me. Seriously, are you 12?


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 12, 2020)

JimG. said:


> *Frankly we are all hopeless.*



I'm actually quite hopeful. 

 The nation as a whole is coming down from COVID19, and the NYC epicenter is making great strides in terms of lower death, lowering hospitalizations, etc.  Much of the nation is managing quite well or barely effected, and the #1 goal of ensuring hospitals do not get overrun like Italy & other parts of Europe has been achieved. That was supposed to be an absolute major point of all this!

Now In terms of everything you mentioned about being locked at home like a zoo animal, I agree with you 100%. 

 But here's the good news.  

We cant continue that path even if we wanted to.  People would literally begin to starve.  Literally.   So I'm fairly convinced the, _"self quarantine & close all businesses until 2038" _crowd is going to lose out soon, as it will simply become an untenable intellectual position to have if it frankly isn't already.  There are relatively unaffected parts of America where the populace is I think justifiably approaching lanterns & pitchforks status.  And most importantly, the science simply isn't on their draconian side.  *Better days are ahead. * My 2¢.


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## ScottySkis (May 12, 2020)

p_levert said:


> Let's see, Eastern Powder Baby "I have no idea if you did and am happy to take your word for it. I hope we get one ASAP, too.".
> 
> Then there's you: "rather than being passive aggressive, whiny, and temperamental, use the _"ignore"_ feature."
> 
> ...



I agree all this stuff keep most people not into this AZ is crazy talk on others ski forum s
I agree
They will not listen to reasonable people so I done caring about it 
Other than 2 other threads here I have no interest on this sad site


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## chuckstah (May 12, 2020)

Original subject before all the bullshit, Timberline Lodge on Mount Hood is reopening Friday.  Hopefully they can do it successfully. 

https://www.kptv.com/news/timberlin...cle_928bb138-94c2-11ea-aa37-ef3b20a4d867.html


Sent from my moto e5 cruise using AlpineZone mobile app


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## icecoast1 (May 13, 2020)

JimG. said:


> All we seem to talk about is the death and sickness. There is so much more to this than that.
> 
> How about my youngest son who is a senior in high school and who has not seen his friends or teachers since mid-March? Who will not go to a prom or even a commencement for his graduation? He'll get a diploma in the mail. And now he has to decide which of his remaining 2 college choices to attend...oh wait, he might not get to attend this fall. And even if he goes he has the real prospect of spending time at home in front of a computer for online classes. Which is not college at all and a total waste of money. How do you think he feels?




The education side of this is one of the many situations where the cure may be becoming worse than the problem.   Many kids have already checked out for the year, the distance learning seems to be a joke for many of them.   Good luck getting them to take school seriously after another few months of "vacation" if they're still trying this in the fall.  This could be a huge long term problem if they don't figure out a way of getting kids back to school.


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## VTKilarney (May 13, 2020)

Hawk said:


> I could not live with the prospect of killing someone I love because I was either reckless or thought I was low risk or whatever.



So you have never driven an automobile with a passenger?

As much as it may make you uncomfortable, society makes these sorts of determinations ALL OF THE TIME.  

For example, the age group most likely to die in a car accident are 80-90 year olds.  Lots of them die every year.  And yet we build highways and allow people to drive.  

Fortunately, we do not base these decisions on emotionally driven anecdotes.  We weight the costs and benefits.  At a certain point, the cost of locking down the economy is going to be greater than the cost in lives.  That's the simple reality.


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## Hawk (May 13, 2020)

Good rationality.  But I drive very conservatively.  I would never be the cause of killing someone I care about while I am driving.  It would be some other idiot and not on me.  If I get sick because I ignore the obvious threat that is here in the Mass and infect someone else, that would be on me.  Believe me you are fine in your little world up there in Northern VT.  You will be able or go out safely sometime soon.  It is not that way down here.  But guess what.  I am headed your way very soon to Kingdom trails.  I will make sure to come see you and give you a big kiss.  LOL  How about that.


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## VTKilarney (May 13, 2020)

Hawk said:


> Good rationality.  But I drive very conservatively.  I would never be the cause of killing someone I care about while I am driving.  It would be some other idiot and not on me.



With all due respect, there is quite a bit of arrogance in the absolutism of your statement.  Some of the most conservative drivers make mistakes.  We are human, after all.  In any event, I don't think that your dead passenger would really care if you were at fault or if "some other idiot" was at fault.  By driving, you are the one who exposed them to that "other idiot."

But you have actually proven my point.  When it comes to driving, you weigh the pros and cons and act accordingly.  Driving is a risky activity that could kill yourself or a loved one - and yet you do it.

Do you disagree with my contention that at a certain point the cost of locking down the economy will be greater than the cost in human lives?


----------



## Hawk (May 13, 2020)

I have hardly proved your point.  No the difference is that I would not blame myself for that accident.  My rage would be pointed at the idiot.  It would not even occur to me that is was my fault.

Also there will never be a point were human life is less valuable than money.  I think this is where we differ in theology.  Let me clue you in.  People are resilient.  The world made it through the depression which lasted for the better part of 10 years.  Don't try and tell me that we have to open back up so people can go skiing and go to restaurants and get back all our 1st world luxuries at that cost of lives.  That is going to kill more people.  No it is you that has the tone of arrogance safe and sound up there in sparely populated norther kingdom.  

There is no sense in arguing any more.  This is just like the politics of today.  There will always and only be two side.


----------



## VTKilarney (May 13, 2020)

Hawk said:


> I have hardly proved your point.  No the difference is that I would not blame myself for that accident.  My rage would be pointed at the idiot.  It would not even occur to me that is was my fault.



I see.  It's not about a life being lost, it's only about who gets the blame.  Interesting take.



Hawk said:


> Also there will never be a point were human life is less valuable than money.



You don't even believe what you are saying.  If you did, you wouldn't drive, you wouldn't burn fossil fuels, you wouldn't use chemical cleaners, etc.  But you do.  So stop pretending to be virtuous when you don't walk the walk.

Regardless of what you think, society doesn't think the way you do.  You need to accept that.

You owe it to yourself to read this article so you can understand how the world actually works.
https://www.marketplace.org/2019/03/20/how-value-life/


----------



## Hawk (May 13, 2020)

I have to say.  You are an expert of twisting it around.  You should apply for a job in the current administration. I am not going to waist any more time talking to someone who is diametrically opposed to me.  We will never see eye to eye. You are right about one thing only.  Some of Society does not think like I do.  That is fine.   I guess it's just the people that I surround myself with and others down here in the thick of it and places like NYC.  I will now go back and hunker down with my family and friends and wait this thing out and watch the results.  I hope it gets better.


----------



## VTKilarney (May 13, 2020)

Hawk said:


> I have to say.  You are an expert of twisting it around.  You should apply for a job in the current administration. I am not going to waist any more time talking to someone who is diametrically opposed to me.  We will never see eye to eye. You are right about one thing only.  Some of Society does not think like I do.  That is fine.   I guess it's just the people that I surround myself with and others down here in the thick of it and places like NYC.  I will now go back and hunker down with my family and friends and wait this thing out and watch the results.  I hope it gets better.



You don't think like you say you think.  You are virtue signalling to puff up your ego, but you are hypocritical.  If you really believed what you are saying, you'd live in a padded room somewhere on a small organic farm that doesn't use any fossil fuels.  Be sure not to use solar panels, since several toxic chemicals are used in their production.  Of course you'd have to grow your own seeds and not use anything that has been transported, except by sailboat perhaps - but then again, chemicals are used in making sailboats.

And you aren't even going to read the article that I linked so you can actually educate yourself on how the government approaches policy creation in regard to lives lost?  You would think that this information would be incredibly relevant to you right now.  Try stepping outside of your echo chamber.



Hawk said:


> Some of Society does not think like I do.  That is fine.



I hate to break it to you, but GOVERNMENT does not think like you do.  Read the article that I linked.


----------



## machski (May 13, 2020)

Hawk said:


> I have hardly proved your point.  No the difference is that I would not blame myself for that accident.  My rage would be pointed at the idiot.  It would not even occur to me that is was my fault.
> 
> Also there will never be a point were human life is less valuable than money.  I think this is where we differ in theology.  Let me clue you in.  People are resilient.  The world made it through the depression which lasted for the better part of 10 years.  Don't try and tell me that we have to open back up so people can go skiing and go to restaurants and get back all our 1st world luxuries at that cost of lives.  That is going to kill more people.  No it is you that has the tone of arrogance safe and sound up there in sparely populated norther kingdom.
> 
> There is no sense in arguing any more.  This is just like the politics of today.  There will always and only be two side.


Just curious, since you are an avid skier Hawk, have you ever driven for skiing through a storm and after said to yourself "Man, making that drive was dumb"?

Sent from my SM-T830 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## VTKilarney (May 13, 2020)

Hawk said:


> Let me clue you in.  People are resilient.  The world made it through the depression which lasted for the better part of 10 years.



Is this where I am supposed to tell you that, during the Great Depression, the economy was not locked down and that you are engaging in the false analogy logical fallacy?


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 13, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> *At a certain point, the cost of locking down the economy is going to be greater than the cost in lives.*  That's the simple reality.



I listened to the entire Federal Reserve chairman's speech this morning, frightening stuff, which is why markets are down (they were up before comments). Outside the truly affected areas, we're already there on a go-forward basis. 



Hawk said:


> *there will never be a point were human life is less valuable than money. *



Sorry to interrupt your little self-righteous bumper sticker with some reality, but there is no life without money.  We're approaching the point where millions of Americans in relatively unaffected areas are _"without money"_ for no scientifically solid reason.   Easy for you to say otherwise, I bet you have a work from home job and/or are economically fairly solid, while millions of unemployed cant pay their bills & are genuinely in fear.


----------



## x10003q (May 13, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> So you have never driven an automobile with a passenger?
> 
> As much as it may make you uncomfortable, society makes these sorts of determinations ALL OF THE TIME.
> 
> ...



Spare us the car comparison.
About 38,800 people in the USA died in car accidents in all of 2019. The number was 39,404 in 2018.
We are now over 83,000 confirmed deaths from Covid-19 in about 2 months.


----------



## VTKilarney (May 13, 2020)

x10003q said:


> Spare us the car comparison.
> About 38,800 people in the USA died in car accidents in all of 2019. The number was 39,404 in 2018.
> We are now over 83,000 confirmed deaths from Covid-19 in about 2 months.



I didn't offer it to suggest that the overall risk of death is the same.  That should have been very obvious had you taken the time to understand the context of my post.  It was offered to show that Hawk is a hypocrite since he engages in activity that comes with a clearly identified risk to one's life.

You can complain about it all you want, but every government on this planet places a dollar value on human life.  As far as policymakers are concerned, life is not priceless.  Policy drafting takes that value into account - and many policies are put into place that will result in death.  The buildout of the interstate highway system is a perfect example.

Anyone who says that COVID-19 policy must reflect the fact that each single life is priceless is a fool.  Conversely, anyone who says that the cost to lives should NOT be factored into policy making is a fool.  The reality is that we will have to weigh the economic cost with the cost in lives.  The scale is tipping and the people who prefer to make policy decisions based solely on emotion are going to be sorely disappointed.


----------



## p_levert (May 13, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> You once mentioned how "experts" said it would be a very long time before a vaccine was available in the thread was deleted, I presumed that meant you agreed.  But fine, I'll apologize if you makes you feel better.  Doesn't change the fact you post factually incorrect doom & gloom COVID19 information here.  Two days ago took the cake when you posted something obviously known to be false by anyone following COVID19 even remotely closely & then you yourself immediately posted a link demonstrating you were incorrect.  That was a doozy.   And no, we dont have "a problem" with these threads getting deleted.  Deleted threads are extremely rare on AZ, and almost never happen (which is a good thing).
> 
> 
> 
> So what do we do? How about you get some tummy-time or simply ignore me. Seriously, are you 12?



Well, there was an apology in there.  So, hey, that's great, thank you.

As far as me posting factually incorrect information last weekend, I completely disagree.  If you can manage to avoid insults and stereotypes, please tell what I said that was incorrect.


----------



## sull1102 (May 13, 2020)

Hawk said:


> I have hardly proved your point.  No the difference is that I would not blame myself for that accident.  My rage would be pointed at the idiot.  It would not even occur to me that is was my fault.
> 
> Also there will never be a point were human life is less valuable than money.  I think this is where we differ in theology.  Let me clue you in.  People are resilient.  The world made it through the depression which lasted for the better part of 10 years.  Don't try and tell me that we have to open back up so people can go skiing and go to restaurants and get back all our 1st world luxuries at that cost of lives.  That is going to kill more people.  No it is you that has the tone of arrogance safe and sound up there in sparely populated norther kingdom.
> 
> There is no sense in arguing any more.  This is just like the politics of today.  There will always and only be two side.



Hahahahaha good one. Please let us know when you cause an accident, with an attitude like that I can only imagine what it’s like to be near you on the road Mr.Donowrong. I’m a professional off road driver for a major manufacturer, even been behind the wheel in a commercial or two, and I fully understand that behind the wheel anything can happen at anytime and can be the fault of anyone. You run over a nail and pop a tire doing 65mph on the highway, instant decompression you lose control, vehicle ends up rolling down an embankment into a tree, you survive but passenger passes away. You’re at fault there and there’s nothing you could have done differently(unless you have the proper skills and even then you have very little chance and a tenth of a second to course correct an accident once it is in motion). 

Let me start by saying I live in Boston and fiancée is an ER nurse so you aren’t able to pull that “oh you live in VT and can’t understand” trash you’re spewing. During the depression schools were not closed, the economy was not halted by choice by the govt. One needs to stop and look at the big picture and not just look at keeping every human being locked in their homes. You think it is healthy for children to not go to school for more than six months, a year, more? You realize that Australia, Taiwan, Germany, and France have all started returning to the classroom. Do you have children in college or below currently? 

The solution is simply, those who feel like you do, you stay home, hunker down, never leave the house again if you want. Live in fear, you do that, but you must let those who feel differently make their own choice and if they want to go to work, let them. You keep running from Mother Nature all you want. She’s going to get you if she’s going to get you. If it’s not covid maybe it’s the flu next year, cancer tomorrow, heart failure in a year, a car accident within the hour. Would you rather die in ten years having lived in this nightmare of mass unemployment, rising tension, people breaking peoples arms in target over a F-ING MASK or live your life in a way you feel is appropriate and allow others to do the same. 

Also, real question, how long do you believe you can keep people imprisoned in their own homes before they stand up and fight back? I’m on the other side and believe we are rapidly approaching a very dangerous line, but I want to know what the other side thinks is the ideal solution. 


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## skiur (May 13, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> I listened to the entire Federal Reserve chairman's speech this morning, frightening stuff, which is why markets are down (they were up before comments). Outside the truly affected areas, we're already there on a go-forward basis.
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry to interrupt your little self-righteous bumper sticker with some reality, but there is no life without money.  We're approaching the point where millions of Americans in relatively unaffected areas are _"without money"_ for no scientifically solid reason.   Easy for you to say otherwise, I bet you have a work from home job and/or are economically fairly solid, while millions of unemployed cant pay their bills & are genuinely in fear.



Actually the unemployed can pay their bills.  I got laid off and am collecting unemployment and making over $800 a week.


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## sull1102 (May 13, 2020)

skiur said:


> Actually the unemployed can pay their bills.  I got laid off and am collecting unemployment and making over $800 a week.



For now. Whose paying you that unemployment? That state. How long can the state afford to pay you? California already started taking out loans to pay unemployment after less than two months of this. 


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## Hawk (May 13, 2020)

Nope I'm out.  You guys have it all twisted as usual.  Not going to even try. I also have to get back to work.  Sull, you go fight back.  Whatever that means.

I am as you see me.  Whatever that is is fine with me. Continue with your opinions. Thank you.


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## VTKilarney (May 13, 2020)

Hawk said:


> Nope I'm out.  You guys have it all twisted as usual.  Not going to even try. I also have to get back to work.  Sull, you go fight back.  Whatever that means.
> 
> I am as you see me.  Whatever that is is fine with me. Continue with your opinions. Thank you.



If by "twisted", you mean that we have provided facts and sound policy arguments, then yes, we have "twisted" things.

The bottom line is that you made several indefensible and illogical arguments* and, rather than admitting it, you are running away.  Your echo chamber beckons.

If you can defend your arguments, now is the time to do it.  If you can't, there is no need to announce your departure.  Just go.

* such as, "I never could be the cause of a car accident" and, "Policy makers cannot put a monetary value on a life."  (Compare that to my radical idea that policy makers need to weigh both economic cost and the cost to lives.)


----------



## VTKilarney (May 13, 2020)

The discussion that has been happening brings up a good point that I read recently - that Dr. Fauci is an epidemiologist.  And that's it.  

This means that he is likely biased.  The measure of his success is solely based on how many lives he can save from Covid-19.  If the economy utterly implodes (which has already started), Fauci is not going to be the fall guy.  He has a self interest in placing the value of life lost to Covid-19 over the value of the economy and lives ruined and lost as a result of the economy.  Therefore, it is a mistake for policy makers to be taking their direction solely from Fauci and his ilk.  

The other dirty secret is that the lives we save here are really being lost in developing nations.  This idea that our economic lockdown has no impact on people from other countries (mostly poor people of color), is absurd.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/20/lockdown-developing-world-coronavirus-poverty/


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## JimG. (May 13, 2020)

machski said:


> Just curious, since you are an avid skier Hawk, have you ever driven for skiing through a storm and after said to yourself "Man, making that drive was dumb"?



I'm trying to check out of this thread but keep getting pulled in.

And I'm glad because this line gave me a good laugh. Not only have I said that AFTER a car ride through a blizzard, I often say it AS I'm driving through a blizzard.

Thanks!


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## Hawk (May 13, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> If by "twisted", you mean that we have provided facts and sound policy arguments, then yes, we have "twisted" things.
> 
> The bottom line is that you made several indefensible and illogical arguments* and, rather than admitting it, you are running away.  Your echo chamber beckons.
> 
> ...



I'm not running away.  I just don't have the time or the energy to argue with the likes of you,  I do still have a job you know.  You will always be right and have to remind us of it.  But I will still put life over money any day.


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## VTKilarney (May 13, 2020)

Hawk said:


> I'm not running away.  I just don't have the time or the energy to argue with the likes of you,  I do still have a job you know.  You will always be right and have to remind us of it.



I see.  You could have backed up your claim and proven us wrong.  You are just choosing not to.  

My apologies for thinking otherwise.



Hawk said:


> But I will still put life over money any day.



Saying it three times doesn't make it true.


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## JimG. (May 13, 2020)

sull1102 said:


> Let me start by saying I live in Boston and fiancée is an ER nurse so you aren’t able to pull that “oh you live in VT and can’t understand” trash you’re spewing. During the depression schools were not closed, the economy was not halted by choice by the govt. One needs to stop and look at the big picture and not just look at keeping every human being locked in their homes. You think it is healthy for children to not go to school for more than six months, a year, more? You realize that Australia, Taiwan, Germany, and France have all started returning to the classroom. Do you have children in college or below currently?



I'm going to guess no kids.

I'm thankful my 2 oldest are done with college and that my youngest is almost done with high school. I'm also fortunate my youngest has taken to online learning and is doing extremely well. And that his school and teachers are exemplary educators. He has not made a college choice yet but is down to 2 schools and he is determined to start in the Fall. The online learning experience makes him realize he can handle that no problem. I have more problems paying the insane tuition for him to possibly start out at home but I'll follow his lead.

A lot of his classmates and other students around the country are not as fortunate as he is. Many are struggling or have already checked out of school. Parents should not be expected to work all day and then become teachers at night. I can't even fathom how the younger grades are handling this. Some families have no internet or computers. Our district paid for those services for those who needed help. That is assuredly not the norm. 

Keep this up and we risk a lost generation unable to support themselves leave alone contribute to society.


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## BenedictGomez (May 13, 2020)

Hawk said:


> *I will still put life over money any day.*



If this is true, then the day will come that you will necessarily have to put money over life.  I believe that day is about two weeks ago.


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## VTKilarney (May 13, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> If this is true, then the day will come that you will necessarily have to put money over life.  I believe that day is about two weeks ago.



Even Cuomo doesn't believe that life is always more important than money.  He said that he believed it, but just a couple of days later he started opening up portions of New York.  I guess he said it because he thinks people are gullible enough to believe him.


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## BenedictGomez (May 13, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> Dr. *Fauci is an epidemiologist.  And that's it.  *



That guy is pissing me off.   He almost always promotes a worst-case or near worst-case scenario to help effect the uber conservative outcome he desires. But then he often equivocates & walks that worst-case scenario back a bit, still leaving the "bad news", but adding some ambiguity. Your article is behind a pay-wall so I cant read it, but I'm guessing that's part of the criticism.  

Fauci reminds me of the most annoying lead equity analysts I worked with on Wall Street who would have a Buy or a Sell on a stock, but then equivocate just enough so that no matter what the hell happened they could somehow save face.  And the media is making Fauci into a hero solely for a reason I will not mention, but is entirely predictable.


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## Hawk (May 13, 2020)

I have watched you over time on the Burke thread, then the Vt college thread and other threads.  You log an absurd amount of time on here debating.  I have always seen you on the aggressive side pushing and pushing your points.  You are never wrong and always come up with response after response.  I'm not going to say anything on here will ever change your opinion.  I can't even compete with the time and energy aspects of this.  What is the point with arguing with a professional arguer.   This is what turns you on.  This started with a car analogy and we ended up here.  It's actually my fault for having an opinion.  You can keep going all you want.  You are not hurting my feelings.  I am just sure I do not want to find out what this disease can do to me or my family.  I never said you couldn't do want you want.


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## BenedictGomez (May 13, 2020)

JimG. said:


> *his school and teachers are exemplary educators.*



I was IM'ing with a woman at work who said the above can be a real problem if you're not so lucky.

Her daughter has a great teacher making herculean efforts to make sure her class is staying afloat.  
Her son has a teacher who is doing the bare minimum & they're having to basically do all the teaching.

There's no doubt in my mind children from coast-to-coast are missing critical learning skills from this mess.  Any politician from either party who speaks of not having school in September should be run out of office on a rail.


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## VTKilarney (May 13, 2020)

Hawk said:


> I have watched you over time on the Burke thread, then the Vt college thread and other threads.  You log an absurd amount of time on here debating.  I have always seen you on the aggressive side pushing and pushing your points.  You are never wrong and always come up with response after response.  I'm not going to say anything on here will ever change your opinion.  I can't even compete with the time and energy aspects of this.  What is the point with arguing with a professional arguer.   This is what turns you on.  This started with a car analogy and we ended up here.  It's actually my fault for having an opinion.  You can keep going all you want.  You are not hurting my feelings.  I am just sure I do not want to find out what this disease can do to me or my family.  I never said you couldn't do want you want.



I get it.  You could prove me wrong but choose not to.   You've already said that.


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## VTKilarney (May 13, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> I was IM'ing with a woman at work who said the above can be a real problem if you're not so lucky.
> 
> Her daughter has a great teacher making herculean efforts to make sure her class is staying afloat.
> Her son has a teacher who is doing the bare minimum & they're having to basically do all the teaching.
> ...



It's been pretty much a disaster for my kids.  Many students in our area do not have reliable or high speed Internet, so they are not teaching classes online.  The kids get homework assignments, but very little actual instruction.  They are definitely missing out.


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## BenedictGomez (May 13, 2020)

Hawk said:


> I am just sure I do not want to find out what this disease can do to me or my family.  *I never said you couldn't do want you want.*



Surely you understand that when you speak out in favor of continued mandated lock-downs, that is precisely what you are doing?  

You may not be the one pulling the trigger, but you are in favor of the shot being fired.  I see no difference.


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## Hawk (May 13, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> If this is true, then the day will come that you will necessarily have to put money over life.  I believe that day is about two weeks ago.



Actually BG, my wife and I have had disaster planning talks for several years.  We are very prepared.


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## Hawk (May 13, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Surely you understand that when you speak out in favor of continued mandated lock-downs, that is precisely what you are doing?
> 
> You may not be the one pulling the trigger, but you are in favor of the shot being fired.  I see no difference.



No actually the lockdowns are about to end.  Even in Massachusetts.  I am saying that I will remain at home even after they lift them.  I am also saying that people should have that choice and not be ridiculed.


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## Hawk (May 13, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> I get it.  You could prove me wrong but choose not to.   You've already said that.



No.  I just have a different opinion.  There doesn't always have to be right and wrong.


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## VTKilarney (May 13, 2020)

Hawk said:


> Actually BG, my wife and I have had disaster planning talks for several years.  We are very prepared.



I can't speak for BG, but I was thinking about more than myself and my immediate family.  You should try that as well.


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## VTKilarney (May 13, 2020)

Hawk said:


> No.  I just have a different opinion.  There doesn't always have to be right and wrong.



Sorry, but if it's your "opinion" that society should place an infinite value on a single human life, you are wrong.


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## BenedictGomez (May 13, 2020)

Hawk said:


> No actually the lockdowns are about to end.  Even in Massachusetts.  I am saying that *I will remain at home even after they lift them.  I am also saying that people should have that choice and not be ridiculed.*



Then we're on the same page, but it didn't seem like it as I thought from your comments you meant you were against lifting the government shutdowns.  If people like yourself wish to stay at home until Christmas, that's their prerogative assuming they have the ability & means to do so.  Freedom.  I may not agree with the necessity for that if you & your loved ones are not in a risk category, but you can freely do so if you wish.  It's the people who are "forced" by government to remain in their home even though risk to them and others is currently quite low who are suffering.


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## Former Sunday Rivah Rat (May 13, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> The discussion that has been happening brings up a good point that I read recently - that Dr. Fauci is an epidemiologist.  And that's it.
> 
> This means that he is likely biased.  The measure of his success is solely based on how many lives he can save from Covid-19.  If the economy utterly implodes (which has already started), Fauci is not going to be the fall guy.  He has a self interest in placing the value of life lost to Covid-19 over the value of the economy and lives ruined and lost as a result of the economy.  Therefore, it is a mistake for policy makers to be taking their direction solely from Fauci and his ilk.
> 
> ...



The media is pushing a false narrative of Lives vs. the Economy. What does not fit the phony narrative is that our shutdown as a food exporting nation could lead to tens of millions of people starving to death:

www.wfpusa.org/coronavirus/

www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/coronavirus-biblical-famines-could-double-global-hunger-un-warns.html

The media fearmongering the sheep into backing a lockdown is promoting a foreseeable genocide.

The real question should be is 1 american 82 year old with 1 or more underlying medical conditions worth the lives of 1000 poor Africans, the majority of them women and children??????


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## machski (May 13, 2020)

JimG. said:


> I'm trying to check out of this thread but keep getting pulled in.
> 
> And I'm glad because this line gave me a good laugh. Not only have I said that AFTER a car ride through a blizzard, I often say it AS I'm driving through a blizzard.
> 
> Thanks!


Same here, which I would find hard to believe any of us on this board haven't been there at least once in our lives.  Making Hawk's post on his driving a bit over the top.

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## skef (May 13, 2020)

machski said:


> Same here, which I would find hard to believe any of us on this board haven't been there at least once in our lives.  Making Hawk's post on his driving a bit over the top.


Thanks you guys for getting some snowsports-related content back into this thread!


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## VTKilarney (May 13, 2020)

Sunday Rivah Rat said:


> The media is pushing a false narrative of Lives vs. the Economy. What does not fit the phony narrative is that our shutdown as a food exporting nation could lead to tens of millions of people starving to death:
> 
> www.wfpusa.org/coronavirus/
> 
> ...



The selfishness of some people who have the privilege and means to ride out an extended economic shutdown is one of the most disturbing things about this whole mess.  I completely understand why we locked down in order to avoid demand outpacing medical capacity.  But the reality is that we overcompensated in all but one city in the country, and even that city only had a problem at a couple of hospitals.  There is no doubt that an extended lockdown will result in famine and death - but I guess when it's poor people of color suffering, we aren't supposed to care.  

I completely understand why retired folks are scared.  I would be too.  But it's patently absurd for retired people to think that the economy should be indefinitely frozen for their protection - especially when those folks are the most capable of self isolating.  Retirees have already left younger generations with crippling national and state debt.  Now they want to destroy their economic livelihood too.  It's sad that the counter culture generation became one of the most selfish generations this country has ever known.

All of those trillions of dollars being spent on stimulus?  How about we use it to allow vulnerable people to stay home.  That makes a lot more sense to me.


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## deadheadskier (May 13, 2020)

A few thoughts

1. Let's all try and be a bit more respectful of each other on this forum.  Times are tough, people are stressed, lots of emotions running high.  I see a lot of trying to win the internet macho crap and it's just not cool right now.

2. I'm firmly in the camp of we need to open the economy back up rapidly and be reactive when health problems come up. There is no playbook on being proactive regarding the current situation.  The US isn't Italy, which isn't Germany, which isn't Sweden, which isn't China.  NY isn't VT, which isn't Georgia, which isn't Maine.  Population density differs, healthcare knowledge and technology differs.  This isn't one size fits all.  Americans like to puff their chest out about having the most advanced healthcare in the world.  Yet look at our most advanced healthcare cities?  Boston and NY.  They have had the worst results in the country. 

3. Remote areas with low infection rates have their own unique problems and concerns.  It's easy to say, po-dunk wherever should be fully open for business because infections are low. They're not Boston or NYC so, let's just open right on up. Those areas don't necessarily all feel that way. 

 I was working at the most remote hospital in New England today.  They've got 5 ICU beds.  At one point 4 were occupied with Covid patients a couple of weeks ago.  One of the beds still has a patient hanging on by a thread on a ventilator after 25 days as of today.  I spent a good bit of time with the COO today talking about what they've gone through the past two months.  Their concern hasn't been flattening the curve.  They know they can ship patients out to areas of more hospital capacity.  Their concern has been having a key surgeon become sick.  Critical Access hospitals in remote areas hang on by a thread financially.  Often the only source of profit is a couple of surgeons who hospital administration have worked their ass off to attract.  Typically they're older, near retirement, but want a more relaxed lifestyle before retiring.  These hospitals are literally one or two surgeons away from failing.  So, that was this COO's biggest concern.  What happens if one of these aging, high risk surgeon's get's sick?  We lose them, we lose our ability to be solvent.  The thread is literally that thin at these hospitals.  

Having a critical access hospital close is just about the quickest way to absolutely kill a rural community.  This has been happening about ten times a year for a decade in this country.

It's worth considering locally in regards to how quick local communities open up.  Again, I'm for rapid re-opening, but I don't think many realize just how close many of our rural hospitals are to failing and closing for good.


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## gregnye (May 14, 2020)

People don't realize that the economy isn't going to just magically "reopen".
Many people are going to be hesitant to and will stay home.

We can no longer return to normal, and honestly I'm ok with that--because if normal means living in one of the wealthiest nations in the world with many not able to afford healthcare or a place to live, that's not a society I wish to live in. We need change. I am still hopeful that we can address these issues before/while we reopen.

And honestly, those that want the economy to reopen asap, are just fixated on a number going up in the stock market, the president's reelect-ability, or want to get their hair cut. They don't care about people or workers. To them it's "Who cares that I might endanger my hair dresser's life, I need to look nice".

And before you say "opening the economy right now will help the poor people", let me point out that Supermarkets right now are hiring, so there is an opportunity to make money. Almost all Star Markets in my area are hiring but no one is applying. Why? Because they don't want to get COVID-19. 

Chelsea Massachusetts was hit really hard by COVID. Most of these people there are "essential" in title only, when they should be receiving hazard pay for the currently minimum wage job they do. We as a country need to use this opportunity to rethink everything.

I'm from Mass and we've been hit really hard here. I have friends that actually lost family. If you think this is a hoax, I don't know how to help you. As for NH, Maine and VT, I say good luck because once you open, there will be irresponsible people in my state driving up (tourism) and spreading it up there.


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## Dickc (May 14, 2020)

With respect to opening up, If a restaurant can keep decent spacing, maybe put single table tents in part of the parking lot to aid in separation I think they can reopen.  If you do not want to risk going DON’T.  That is your choice.  Keeping us under lockdown is killing the economy.  I think after 8 weeks many people are well aware of the danger, and will keep social distancing for some time to come.  My son and his fiancé have just postponed their September 25th 2020 wedding to June 18 2021 as they feel there is too much up in the air to “rush” into a September date.  The venue was quite happy to accommodate them, and in fact when they called, The venue started to suggest a postponement until they said that was what they called to do.  Many stores can properly social distance customers,  Gyms are a bit more of an issue as equipment is more closely spaced, and they are intimate by their nature.  Moving and removing equipment might be their only solution.  That will end up with someone’s “favorite” equipment no longer usable.  Pools will be a problem as we know nothing about how long the virus can survive in the water.  Yes, chlorine is supposed to kill stuff like that, but I don’t know if anyone has tested that.  Skiing next fall may be OK, but I think trying to open Killington for the last weekend or two would be a problem as I think skiers would come out of the woodwork to ski and it would be impossible to keep distanced.  Beauty spas and barber shops can open.  They are going to have to open by appointment only, and perhaps have only ONE chair in the waiting area.  If you get there early, wait on the car and have them call your cell to come in.

Overall I think there are a lot of things that CAN open, but its going to need to utilize a “distance police” to stop some yahoo’s who either just don’t think, or worse, think this stuff is “stupid”.  Its real, its going to be with us for a long time to come, and labs and medical people have a whole bunch of work to do to really figure out the whole immunity question, transmission process, and best treatment courses, etc.

Please be patient, as it might take infecting enough people to get to herd immunity to finally put this MOSTLY in the rear view mirror.  I know we do not want certain people to get this as it WILL kill them.  That is another thing the medical people need to figure out is the WHY so we can save these people.  That will take time, so we are going to lose these people until its figured out.  The less the better, but, face it, its inevitable.


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## VTKilarney (May 14, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> Having a critical access hospital close is just about the quickest way to absolutely kill a rural community.



I think you have confused the tail with the dog.


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## deadheadskier (May 14, 2020)

How so? They're often the largest employer with the best paying jobs in those locations.  When they close, not only is there that economic loss to deal with, but those who work outside of healthcare now see their closest hospital services being 30, 50 in some cases 100 miles away, making that place to live less desirable.  

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## EPB (May 14, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> A few thoughts
> 
> 1. Let's all try and be a bit more respectful of each other on this forum.  Times are tough, people are stressed, lots of emotions running high.  I see a lot of trying to win the internet macho crap and it's just not cool right now.
> 
> 2. I'm firmly in the camp of we need to open the economy back up rapidly and be reactive when health problems come up. There is no playbook on being proactive regarding the current situation.  The US isn't Italy, which isn't Germany, which isn't Sweden, which isn't China.  NY isn't VT, which isn't Georgia, which isn't Maine.  Population density differs, healthcare knowledge and technology differs.  This isn't one size fits all.  Americans like to puff their chest out about having the most advanced healthcare in the world.  Yet look at our most advanced healthcare cities?  Boston and NY.  They have had the worst results in the country...



Good call trying to take down the temperature. 

I will say, in fairness to our relatively heavier reliance on private healthcare, we never rationed care and we now have too many ventilators thanks to private ORs and private companies including Tesla, etc. This has served as a great example of how profit motives increase supply over price-fixed socialized systems. 

That said, Sweden of all places, seems to have done a great job. Perhaps sin taxes to keep people from smoking and getting fat aren't so bad after all. :lol: 

If I'm Andrew Cuomo or Bill de Blasio, I go to bed every night thanking my lucky stars that there's a scapegoat in the White House to take the heat for the fact I sent COVID-positive elders back to nursing homes (somewhere in the ~1/3 range of all deaths have come from nursing homes), demanded way more resources than I needed (ventilators, ships) and never closed the subway system (which served to incubate the virus for months as it never even got cleaned until May). If this happened in 2014, they'd be public enemies 1 and 1a because there's no way #44 gets blamed for NYC's failures. In fairness to Cuomo and de Blasio, though, NYC certainly had natural challenges given incredibly high population density and the fact NYC is an international travel destination.


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## BenedictGomez (May 14, 2020)

"Scapegoat" - interesting term for near monopolized, institutional media industry bias.


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## machski (May 14, 2020)

gregnye said:


> People don't realize that the economy isn't going to just magically "reopen".
> Many people are going to be hesitant to and will stay home.
> 
> We can no longer return to normal, and honestly I'm ok with that--because if normal means living in one of the wealthiest nations in the world with many not able to afford healthcare or a place to live, that's not a society I wish to live in. We need change. I am still hopeful that we can address these issues before/while we reopen.
> ...



A few things on your post.  First, those that want the economy re-opened are not just saying that to re-elect the current slate or have the stock market shoot up.  It is more likely they have been impacted and the future they are looking down for themselves is rather bleak.  You also apparently don't have your pulse on the jobs outlook, there are many more job losses to come GUARENTEED this fall when certain provisions or the CARES act shut off and suddenly certain sectors will layoff in mass.  Watch for October 1st, there will be a huge wave then if the federal government doesn't do more before then.

As for the supermarket positions, well the folks those positions normally would attract, even with the extra hazard pay they are offering, are still likely sub-par to the enhanced unemployment they are getting from the blind fed $600/wk boost.  Since you are from MA and the unemployment in that state is already exceedingly generous from NH, many folks are likely living better than they have on unemployment.  Of course, the Fed bonus only lasts 12 weeks and then cuts off, so maybe in another month or so some of these grocery store positions might start getting filled.  Time will tell on that.

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## BenedictGomez (May 14, 2020)

One thing becoming clear to me from reading this thread is the, "lockdown indefinitely" people are clearly unaware the lockdown has not worked anywhere near as well as what the experts would have liked, expected, or told us.  No matter how many times Dr. Fauci tells you otherwise & the doting media breathlessly repeat it.  

 Yes, there was a beneficial slowing of the spread in crisis areas, but it isnt as dramatic as one might hope for or assume elsewhere given the drastic measures taken. You can see this by using individual states as laboratories & directly comparing results.  

Frankly, some of the states which received heaps of media criticism are doing almost as well, as well, or better, than some of the states which took severe closing actions.  Everyone in Georgia should be dead by now to hear NBC news or CNN tell it, but that is simply not the case, and we're now 2 weeks past GA opening.  Conversely, Virginia took some of the most strict measures in the nation, issued a *March 30* "Stay At Home" order, and their deaths are *still* slightly increasing (with low 'n's).  Meanwhile, Georgia has far fewer infections & fewer deaths per capita than Virginia.  

Sorry to say GA vs. VA isnt an isolated example.  The lockdown hasn't worked well & the media is doing America a real disservice in spinning this false narrative that it's working great & should ideally continue in all 50 states.


----------



## EPB (May 14, 2020)

machski said:


> A few things on your post.  First, those that want the economy re-opened are not just saying that to re-elect the current slate or have the stock market shoot up.  It is more likely they have been impacted and the future they are looking down for themselves is rather bleak.  You also apparently don't have your pulse on the jobs outlook, there are many more job losses to come GUARENTEED this fall when certain provisions or the CARES act shut off and suddenly certain sectors will layoff in mass.  Watch for October 1st, there will be a huge wave then if the federal government doesn't do more before then.
> 
> As for the supermarket positions, well the folks those positions normally would attract, even with the extra hazard pay they are offering, are still likely sub-par to the enhanced unemployment they are getting from the blind fed $600/wk boost.  Since you are from MA and the unemployment in that state is already exceedingly generous from NH, many folks are likely living better than they have on unemployment.  Of course, the Fed bonus only lasts 12 weeks and then cuts off, so maybe in another month or so some of these grocery store positions might start getting filled.  Time will tell on that.
> 
> Sent from my SM-T830 using AlpineZone mobile app



I wouldn't even bother with that one. It's a laundry list of regurgitated and exceedingly lame straw man arguments mixed with fundamental failure to understand just how many people have lost their livelihood to the pandemic. The employment rate is now 14.7%; millions are out of work. Edit: for those who don't understand how an unemployment rate works, you need to be searching for a job to be considered unemployed. The USA will run out of lenders far before the healthcare system could be changed in any fundamental way (that's if there were even a serious appetite to do so which obviously isn't the case, for better or worse). 

While gregnye may have felt serious writing this, it does not rise to the level of being dignified by being taken seriously.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 14, 2020)

eastern powder baby said:


> While gregnye may have felt serious writing this, it does not rise to the level of being dignified by being taken seriously.



You wont have to read his stuff much longer given he doesn't wish to live in our society anymore.  Que lastima.


----------



## deadheadskier (May 14, 2020)

gregnye said:


> They don't care about people or workers.



My desire to see the economy reopen as  rapidly as possible is 100% motivated by caring for people and workers.   Or I should more accurately state, former workers.  



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## thetrailboss (May 14, 2020)

As I said in another thread, Snowbird is not reopening for skiing this season.  Too much pent up demand to make it safe and manageable.


----------



## EPB (May 14, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> My desire to see the economy reopen as  rapidly as possible is 100% motivated by caring for people and workers.   Or I should more accurately state, former workers.
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app



Or maybe deep down you're secretly a TRUMP SUPPORTER! In all seriousness, people are on edge and gregnye seems like he's had his brain broken by the hysterics he's likely consumed over the last few months on TV/online. The overwhelming majority of us aren't sociopaths and want to see people around us recover. Giving as much credit as possible, it takes someone with some serious fogginess in judgement to not understand that.

I'd trade a president I don't care for from 2021-2025 over the ramifications of a year+ long shutdown any day of the week. It would be silly not to make that trade because a shutdown that long could easily take a decade to recover from and lead to a ton of socioeconomic unrest along the way. Seriously - good luck having any budget leftover to expand social services under that scenario.


----------



## deadheadskier (May 14, 2020)

My holy crap moment came April 1st.  We support a local charity called End 68 Hours of Hunger.  68 hours represents the amount of time from when a kid leaves school on Friday until they get back on Monday.  The charity provides enough food for a qualifying student to have nourishment met through the weekend.  It's $10 a child.  We pick up the weekly tab a couple of times a year.  We live in a small town. Last time we did this was Christmas and there were 21 kids in the program.  When things looked bad early March, I reached out to the program director and there was an increase to 28 kids.  On April 1st I checked again and they were up to 77 kids!  Only now they have to double up and feed them the whole week.  

I haven't asked since.  I'm afraid to even know.  I just send a check at end of month for what I feel I can afford.

We are not what one would consider a low income town. I can't imagine how bad things are in say Chelsea, Mass.

 There's just not enough money in charity and government to sustain these job losses.  We have to find a way to get people back working safely and quickly. This isn't about haircuts, elections, the stock market or ski areas opening.  It's about life or death quite literally.

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## EPB (May 14, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> My holy crap moment came April 1st.  We support a local charity called End 68 Hours of Hunger.  68 hours represents the amount of time from when a kid leaves school on Friday until they get back on Monday.  The charity provides enough food for a qualifying student to have nourishment met through the weekend.  It's $10 a child.  We pick up the weekly tab a couple of times a year.  We live in a small town. Last time we did this was Christmas and there were 21 kids in the program.  When things looked bad early March, I reached out to the program director and there was an increase to 28 kids.  On April 1st I checked again and they were up to 77 kids!  Only now they have to double up and feed them the whole week.
> 
> I haven't asked since.  I'm afraid to even know.  I just send a check at end of month for what I feel I can afford.
> 
> ...



Good on you! As someone who grew up just south of where you are, it's great to hear this is a cause you're behind.

We're simply not set up to live like this, and when I say "we" I don't mean people just under our economic system. I mean human beings. Elon Musk went on Joe Rogan and gave one of his kinda textbook innocuous and poignant takes on the pandemic when he said something like "If we don't work, there's no stuff". Our society can't borrow to moth ball our economy forever, China can't stay shuttered indefinitely. This is a constraint we have to acknowledge as sensible human beings. 

When we don't open schools, some kids don't get fed. Perhaps you've seen the reports of certain suppliers to restaurants being forced to dump dairy and other products that they have nowhere to ship their produce. It's terrible. Apparently, the US hasn't been exporting food abroad like we used to, which means people in the developing world are likely to starve. 

While I'm vehemently against sorting people by skin color, those who do like to keep score of such things should understand that the people who are likely to suffer most by a prolonged shutdown are those with more pigmentation than me both in the US and abroad.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 14, 2020)

eastern powder baby said:


> people are on edge and gregnye seems like *he's had his brain broken by the hysterics he's likely consumed over the last few months on TV/online.* The overwhelming majority of us aren't sociopaths and want to see people around us recover. Giving as much credit as possible, it takes someone with some serious fogginess in judgement to not understand that.



THIS

Studies show many people only consume news from a source(s) which confirms their beliefs, and if you hold those relevant beliefs, the media as I noted prior is literally, not figuratively, telling people that states which are opening up are behaving _"dangerously"_ &_ "irresponsibly"_ by doing so, and _"many will die"_ because of it.

When I noted earlier today that, _"everyone in Georgia should be dead by now to hear NBC news or CNN tell it"_, I was obviously being exaggerative, but the point is real.  If I was a GA resident with low-education or perhaps any GA resident who only gets my news from say NBC or HuffPo, etc... I imagine I might be scared to death right now.  So in a way, I kind of get how _"hysterical"_ as you say, some of these people are.  Tune into CNN tonight and watch how they cover COVID19.  After 20 minutes you'll be certain you need to finish off your bucket list this week.  It's journalistic malpractice, and it's not based on science.


----------



## EPB (May 14, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Studies show many people only consume news from a source(s) which confirms their beliefs, and if you hold those relevant beliefs, the media as I noted prior is literally, not figuratively, telling people that states which are opening up are behaving _"dangerously"_ &_ "irresponsibly"_ by doing so, and _"many will die"_ because of it



It's probably easier when you grow up in a right-of-center household to do this (pop culture and school gives you a totally different take than your parents do), but if one isn't consuming both slants on the news, they're not adequately informed. Plain and simple. 

I'm open minded enough to hear out a lot of takes and really try to avoid ad hominem, but thinking one can get a good picture of the world with all lefty or all righty news is myopic and moronic. Edit: I'm not suggesting anyone in particular actually thinks that way.


----------



## slatham (May 14, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> THIS
> 
> Studies show many people only consume news from a source(s) which confirms their beliefs, and if you hold those relevant beliefs, the media as I noted prior is literally, not figuratively, telling people that states which are opening up are behaving _"dangerously"_ &_ "irresponsibly"_ by doing so, and _"many will die"_ because of it.
> 
> When I noted earlier today that, _"everyone in Georgia should be dead by now to hear NBC news or CNN tell it"_, I was obviously being exaggerative, but the point is real.  If I was a GA resident with low-education or perhaps any GA resident who only gets my news from say NBC or HuffPo, etc... I imagine I might be scared to death right now.  So in a way, I kind of get how _"hysterical"_ as you say, some of these people are.  Tune into CNN tonight and watch how they cover COVID19.  After 20 minutes you'll be certain you need to finish off your bucket list this week.  It's journalistic malpractice, and it's not based on science.



You have to create a blend, but it's time consuming. CNN, NBC, NYT, WSJ, FOX, BB. It really is amazing how biased some of these networks are, and certainly specific people. Too much opinion wrapped in the cover of "news". Sad.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 14, 2020)

eastern powder baby said:


> *It's probably easier when you grow up in a right-of-center household to do this *(pop culture and school gives you a totally different take than your parents do), but if one isn't consuming both slants on the news, they're not adequately informed. Plain and simple.



I've always suspected that, but I dont know if it's ever been sociologically tested to know if it's true or not.  It seems logical though.  If you grow up right-of-center your whole life the news is almost always challenging your opinion or presented in a view you disagree with.  If you're left-of-center, your whole life news is almost always presented to you in a form you're predisposed to agree with, so I imagine it would be jarring in the rare cases when the news doesn't reinforce your belief.


----------



## EPB (May 14, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> I've always suspected that, but I dont know if it's ever been sociologically tested to know if it's true or not.  It seems logical though.  If you grow up right-of-center your whole life the news is almost always challenging your opinion or presented in a view you disagree with.  If you're left-of-center, your whole life news is almost always presented to you in a form you're predisposed to agree with, so I imagine it would be jarring in the rare cases when the news doesn't reinforce your belief.


Yeah that's my guess although it's totally unscientific. 

I still remember my mom explaining to me that Hollywood is rife with bloviating hypocrites when I was about 10. Guess she was about 20 years ahead of the Ricky Gervais curve.

Sent from my VS988 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## VTKilarney (May 14, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> How so? They're often the largest employer with the best paying jobs in those locations.  When they close, not only is there that economic loss to deal with, but those who work outside of healthcare now see their closest hospital services being 30, 50 in some cases 100 miles away, making that place to live less desirable.


I wasn't suggesting that a hospital closure was devoid of any negative economic consequences.  My point was that a hospital closure is generally a symptom of a town in economic decline, not the cause.


----------



## VTKilarney (May 14, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> One thing becoming clear to me from reading this thread is the, "lockdown indefinitely" people are clearly unaware the lockdown has not worked anywhere near as well as what the experts would have liked, expected, or told us.



The best evidence of this is Belarus.  Citizens of Belarus have kept going to hockey games and parades.  Not only have they failed to lock down, they have thumbed their nose at the very concept of a lockdown.

And... they have a grand total of 151 deaths out of a population of 9.5 million.  Even if the number of deaths is underreported by a factor of ten, it is still shockingly low.


----------



## Rowsdower (May 14, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> The best evidence of this is Belarus.  Citizens of Belarus have kept going to hockey games and parades.  Not only have they failed to lock down, they have thumbed their nose at the very concept of a lockdown.
> 
> And... they have a grand total of 151 deaths out of a population of 9.5 million.  Even if the number of deaths is underreported by a factor of ten, it is still shockingly low.



Belarus is a dictatorship with very, very poor transparency and basically no press freedom. Not to mention they have a very weak health infrastructure to begin with. It's one of the poorest nations in Europe. And nobody cares about Belarus. It's not as though a spotlight is on them to be truthful about this stuff.


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## VTKilarney (May 14, 2020)

Rowsdower said:


> Belarus is a dictatorship with very, very poor transparency and basically no press freedom. Not to mention they have a very weak health infrastructure to begin with. It's one of the poorest nations in Europe. And nobody cares about Belarus. It's not as though a spotlight is on them to be truthful about this stuff.



I have been watching Youtube videos from a British Youtuber who is traveling around Belarus.  Anecdotally, the situation in Belarus seems to be exactly what you would expect.  Healthy people are living their lives and going to work while less healthy people are staying home.  So, yes, their numbers may be off.  But the dictatorship that you refer to is giving their citizens a whole lot more freedom than our democracy is giving us.

The only actual evidence I could find that they are faking their numbers is a report from a Russian film crew.  They filmed several fresh graves and claimed that the death toll is worse than the government is reporting.  I could only count six fresh looking grave.  The town has a population of 15,000.  "Fresh" could mean a couple of weeks or a couple of days.  It was hard to tell from the video.  It could have been the normal amount of graves you would expect to see during regular times.  Or perhaps it wasn't.  It is also possible that some burials were springtime burials that involved deaths over the winter.

I am not saying that Belarus is being honest.  I am just saying that I can't find much evidence that they aren't being honest.  But, as I said, even if they are off by a factor of ten, the death toll is still shockingly low for as open as they are.


----------



## Rowsdower (May 14, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> I have been watching Youtube videos from a British Youtuber who is traveling around Belarus.  Anecdotally, the situation in Belarus seems to be exactly what you would expect.  Healthy people are living their lives and going to work while less healthy people are staying home.  So, yes, their numbers may be off.  But the dictatorship that you refer to is giving their citizens a whole lot more freedom than our democracy is giving us.
> 
> The only actual evidence I could find that they are faking their numbers is a report from a Russian film crew.  They filmed several fresh graves and claimed that the death toll is worse than the government is reporting.  I could only count six fresh looking grave.  The town has a population of 15,000.  "Fresh" could mean a couple of weeks or a couple of days.  It was hard to tell from the video.  It could have been the normal amount of graves you would expect to see during regular times.  Or perhaps it wasn't.  It is also possible that some burials were springtime burials that involved deaths over the winter.
> 
> I am not saying that Belarus is being honest.  I am just saying that I can't find much evidence that they aren't being honest.  But, as I said, even if they are off by a factor of ten, the death toll is still shockingly low for as open as they are.



Like I said, nobody cares about Belarus. If they're lying its not like anyone has an interest in shining a light on them. They're not China. And I watch Bald and Bankrupt too, but just because healthy people are walking around outside doesn't really tell us anything. He was made to quarantine too for what its worth.

Point is, its a pretty unreliable metric to rely on the Belarusian govt when you've got a lot of other data to look over from better sources.


----------



## VTKilarney (May 14, 2020)

Rowsdower said:


> Like I said, nobody cares about Belarus.



Belarus is the one nation in the western world that has decided not to lock down in any way whatsoever.  Everyone should care about Belarus right now.  An epidemiologist who is NOT watching Belarus is utterly incompetent.


----------



## Rowsdower (May 14, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> Belarus is the one nation in the western world that has decided not to lock down in any way whatsoever.  Everyone should care about Belarus right now.  An epidemiologist who is NOT watching Belarus is utterly incompetent.



Again, that only really works if you believe the numbers they give you.

Plus I think there's other instances of places without much in the way of health policy set up against this. There are developing countries don't have the infrastructure, or the interest in doing anything about it so its not a unique situation. But again, its hard to get reliable data from those places.


----------



## Former Sunday Rivah Rat (May 14, 2020)

Rowsdower said:


> Belarus is a dictatorship with very, very poor transparency and basically no press freedom. Not to mention they have a very weak health infrastructure to begin with. It's one of the poorest nations in Europe. And nobody cares about Belarus. It's not as though a spotlight is on them to be truthful about this stuff.



Japan has not had a strict lockdown, restaurants are open.  They all wear masks. 
Japan has kept their deaths low: 678 for such a dense nation. 5 Deaths per million population vs 262 per million for the USA with a much more strict lockdown and social distancing policy.
 Masks are proven to work:

Quote from a Surgeon friend: 
"I’m a surgeon.  For over 100 years, we surgeons have been wearing a mask while operating on patients, - - - with our mouth, nose and face just 18-inches from the large open wound in your body.  And the mask has been so effective at keeping you from being infected by us, that the practice has NEVER been changed – in over 100 years! ​There is NO NEED for people to be six-feet apart. "


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-19/japan-gambles-on-lockdown-lite-to-fight-coronavirus/12153924


----------



## Rowsdower (May 14, 2020)

Sunday Rivah Rat said:


> Japan has not had a strict lockdown, restaurants are open.  They all wear masks.
> Japan has kept their deaths low: 678 for such a dense nation. 5 Deaths per million population vs 262 per million for the USA with a much more strict lockdown and social distancing policy.
> Masks are proven to work:
> 
> ...



I mean, your surgeon also doesn't operate on you while he's sick.


----------



## deadheadskier (May 14, 2020)

"Unlike governments elsewhere, Japan's leaders have no legal power to enforce a lockdown. While local governors can call on businesses to stay closed and suggest people stay at home, there are no punishments if they choose not to do so. Despite this, mobility data has shown a striking drop in public movement."

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## VTKilarney (May 14, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> "Unlike governments elsewhere, Japan's leaders have no legal power to enforce a lockdown. While local governors can call on businesses to stay closed and suggest people stay at home, there are no punishments if they choose not to do so. Despite this, mobility data has shown a striking drop in public movement."
> 
> Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app



A compelling argument against the nanny state.


----------



## deadheadskier (May 14, 2020)

They have plenty of their own nanny state policies.  Gun ownership would be one.


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## slatham (May 14, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> "Unlike governments elsewhere, Japan's leaders have no legal power to enforce a lockdown. While local governors can call on businesses to stay closed and suggest people stay at home, there are no punishments if they choose not to do so. Despite this, mobility data has shown a striking drop in public movement."
> 
> Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app



The Japanese are smart (and they've seen this movie more than the US). Give them the facts about a contagious disease that can cause death? Conclusion: let's just stay home for a bit. Who said "Walk away and live to fight another day?" (too lazy to look up but you get my point).


----------



## Rowsdower (May 14, 2020)

Looking at Japan and suggesting their experience and response with this pandemic is predicated on a lack of nanny state policies is probably the worst read on east Asian cultures and their govts I've ever seen. I'm sorry, I just think this is such a flawed perception of how people over there behave.


----------



## VTKilarney (May 14, 2020)

Rowsdower said:


> Looking at Japan and suggesting their experience and response with this pandemic is predicated on a lack of nanny state policies is probably the worst read on east Asian cultures and their govts I've ever seen. I'm sorry, I just think this is such a flawed perception of how people over there behave.



My point is that people behaved rationally without the government telling them how to behave.  Shocker, I know.


----------



## Rowsdower (May 14, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> My point is that people behaved rationally without the government telling them how to behave.  Shocker, I know.



See this is what I mean. The government told everyone what to do and they did it without the need for further enforcement or more drastic measures. It's _because_ not _despite_ the government suggesting something. You're dealing with a culture where there is a very strong collective mindset and a very high trust placed in authority. 

You really cannot compare east Asian cultural behavior to a western "nanny state" concept because they have a much different relationship with authority and following rules than we do here in the west.


----------



## Not Sure (May 14, 2020)

thetrailboss said:


> As I said in another thread, Snowbird is not reopening for skiing this season.  Too much pent up demand to make it safe and manageable.



I guess the silver lining in this going forward ski areas might forced to deal with lift line crowd control. Spacing and line cutting, hopefully I won’t have oblivious people standing on my ski tails . 

Lodges will be a tough one , when things get busy there seems to be a clammy humid feel . Maybe they will have staff limit the crowd size like some stores are doing. Strange new world...

Lots more people on the road this past week.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 14, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> *The only actual evidence I could find that they are faking their numbers is a report from a Russian film crew.*  They filmed several fresh graves and claimed that the death toll is worse than the government is reporting.  I could only count six fresh looking grave.  The town has a population of 15,000.  "Fresh" could mean a couple of weeks or a couple of days.  It was hard to tell from the video.



Without seeing the video I'd note it could be Russian propaganda in an attempt to destabilize Belarus' government.  It's not exactly a secret Putin has it on his reconstitute the Soviet Union list.


----------



## Rowsdower (May 14, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Without seeing the video I'd note it could be Russian propaganda in an attempt to destabilize Belarus' government.  It's not exactly a secret Putin has it on his reconstitute the Soviet Union list.



Belarus is practically a Russian satellite anyway. Place is ridiculously corrupt and very tightly connected to Moscow.


----------



## nhskier1969 (May 14, 2020)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> I guess the silver lining in this going forward ski areas might forced to deal with lift line crowd control. Spacing and line cutting, hopefully I won’t have oblivious people standing on my ski tails .
> 
> Lodges will be a tough one , when things get busy there seems to be a clammy humid feel . Maybe they will have staff limit the crowd size like some stores are doing. Strange new world...
> 
> Lots more people on the road this past week.



I don't think we should worry about that.  Look, Japans ski resorts have lines too.  I am sure their lodges are crowded as well.  We just need to take page out of Japans book to deal with a virus.  Depending on the virus in Japan,  I am sure they have different level advisors for social distancing and masks in public.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 14, 2020)

Rowsdower said:


> You really cannot compare east Asian cultural behavior to a western "nanny state" concept because they have a much different relationship with authority and following rules than we do here in the west.



I think that's likely true.  That said, if you're one to believe that the way we in the west are fighting COVID19 is the "correct" way, then Japan did dang near everything "incorrectly", save mask wearing.  Pretty much everyone in Japan, China, and South Korea wore masks from the jump.   It seems to me to be the #1 most likely Occam's Razor success factor globally thus far.   

Which is a good time for another screw Fauci reminder.

_"There's no reason to be walking around with a mask"_- Dr. Anthony Fauci,  March 8, 2020.


----------



## Rowsdower (May 14, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> I think that's likely true.  That said, if you're one to believe that the way we in the west are fighting COVID19 is the "correct" way, then Japan did dang near everything "incorrectly", save mask wearing.  Pretty much everyone in Japan, China, and South Korea wore masks from the jump.   It seems to me to be the #1 most likely Occam's Razor success factor globally thus far.
> 
> Which is a good time for another screw Fauci reminder.
> 
> _"There's no reason to be walking around with a mask"_- Dr. Anthony Fauci,  March 8, 2020.



They have a mask culture for sure. But its not the only thing. They also tested much more extensively at the earliest phases of the virus' spread. This helped tremendously. Similarly in Taiwan and SK (and Vietnam if you don't think their numbers are propaganda), early testing was crucial in preventing uncontrolled community spread as has happened here.


----------



## snoseek (May 14, 2020)

I'm back at work for a second week now. I'm actually working a second job helping a former coworker as nobody wants to work because of that sweet sweet mass funemployment. 

Still we are in an impossible position in foodservice right now. I'm a banquet chef normally and obviously my season is fucked. I'm now an overpaid saute station guy and I'm lucky as fuck I'm at a club with monthly minimums.

Restaurants are fucked moving forward. It's the good little places run with passion that we lose not the chains. Any workers getting that fat unemployment check better bank it because quality of life is gonna get weird for awhile. 

I feel like every week this goes on makes it harder to come back. I hope it gets better soon. Be safe and think snow.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 14, 2020)

snoseek said:


> I'm actually working a second job helping a former coworker as *nobody wants to work because of that sweet sweet mass funemployment.*



*Note to self:*

Purchase S&P500 call option expiry for the 1st BLS jobs report post moronic government "unemployment incentive" cessation.


EDIT:

 I'm already running into potential problems with this idea as apparently the Democrats want to keep that super high unemployment pay going pretty much forever.  But if they lose in that bid I'm all over this SPX call option idea.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/shahar...y-until-coronavirus-crisis-ends/#147a8529137d


----------



## Rowsdower (May 14, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> *Note to self:*
> 
> Purchase S&P500 call option expiry for the 1st BLS jobs report post moronic government "unemployment incentive" cessation.
> 
> ...



Add tax cuts and it will get passed. 

Printer goes brrrrrrrrr.

The debt is all in your mind.


----------



## Domeskier (May 15, 2020)

Rowsdower said:


> They have a mask culture for sure. But its not the only thing. They also tested much more extensively at the earliest phases of the virus' spread. This helped tremendously. Similarly in Taiwan and SK (and Vietnam if you don't think their numbers are propaganda), early testing was crucial in preventing uncontrolled community spread as has happened here.



They also implemented mandatory quarantine and cell phone tracking of positive cases.  I'm sure that would go over great with the "privacy" fetishists here on both sides of the political spectrum.


----------



## icecoast1 (May 15, 2020)

Domeskier said:


> They also implemented mandatory quarantine and cell phone tracking of positive cases.  I'm sure that would go over great with the "privacy" fetishists here on both sides of the political spectrum.



Like it or not our cell phones are already being tracked, just look at any of the numerous reports that came out on how certain areas were doing on social distancing.  Just admit it and get it over with and allow people to start returning to normal


----------



## Hawk (May 15, 2020)

Looks like I am back to full time work on Monday.  The growing consensus is that Charlie Baker will send back all construction workers on Monday.  We had an all hands covid office procedures training today in preparation. Not sure if I have to go in right away. I hope not. Some might be interested in the company policies being implemented. So they told us:
 - try very hard to not do public transportation or car pool.
 - Mask on from car all the way to your desk and back to your car.
 - Social distance!  All the time as much as as you can.
 - Try not to touch any surface.  Wear gloves.  Bring a stick or something to press elevator buttons.
 - No Mask at desk but put one on if traveling around office.
 - Desks assignments have been rearranged so that we are not sitting close to each other.
 - No eating in pantry or public spaces together.  Eat at desk.
 - If possible bring lunch, water, soda anything you consume.
 - Travel paths in office have been made so that there are all one way.  My floor is 100,000 sf with a decent amount of open space so that is easily done.
 - No in person meeting for now with groups.  One on One or a couple people can be done with masks. but try not to do this.

All doable.  I am not happy to go in but we will see what happens.  I may not have to go in for a while.  As a PM I cen run most of it from home right now.


----------



## EPB (May 15, 2020)

Hawk said:


> Looks like I am back to full time work on Monday.  The growing consensus is that Charlie Baker will send back all construction workers on Monday.  We had an all hands covid office procedures training today in preparation. Not sure if I have to go in right away. I hope not. Some might be interested in the company policies being implemented. So they told us:
> - try very hard to not do public transportation or car pool.
> - Mask on from car all the way to your desk and back to your car.
> - Social distance!  All the time as much as as you can.
> ...



Good luck - what type of work are you in, generally speaking?


----------



## Hawk (May 15, 2020)

I am a construction Manager for large institutional and commercial clients.


----------



## EPB (May 15, 2020)

Hawk said:


> I am a construction Manager for large institutional and commercial clients.



Nice - I have a good buddy with whom I grew up skiing that works for a large firm doing that type of work down in DC. I suppose it makes sense why you guys are earlier than the investment management world. We'll still be a while last I heard.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 15, 2020)

A long time ago I posted how I believe a commercial real estate crisis will come to America within 15 years.  COVID19 has put my timeline on Miracle Grow + steroids IMO.  I give it fewer than 10 years now.   

As I've said before, there's no reason why millions of jobs aren't currently done from home, alleviating the need for billions of dollars in commercial real estate rent, electricity, and myriad other expenses (cafeteria & security headcount) etc.   My belief was once the gray hairs retire & the millennials inherit the earth, this will occur.  But thanks to COVID19, even plenty of the gray hairs should now be "getting" it.  

This will also IMO put tremendous financial pressure on high tax, high cost, high rent US cities, as plenty of people will simply move once they're not financially tied-down to an area.   I'm one of them.  My wife & I are currently studying western states to move to. If I could teleport my New Jersey salary to Idaho or Utah, etc., well, that decision becomes a whole lot easier.


----------



## Hawk (May 15, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> A long time ago I posted about how I believe a commercial real estate crisis will come to America within 15 years.  COVID19 has put that timeline on Miracle Grow + steroids IMO.  I give it fewer than 10 years now.
> 
> As I've said before, there's no reason why millions of jobs aren't currently done from home, alleviating the need for billions of dollars in commercial real estate rent, electricity, etc.   My belief was once the gray hairs retire & the millennials inherit the earth, this would occur.  But thanks to COVID19, even plenty of the gray hairs should be "getting" it.
> 
> This will also IMO put tremendous financial pressure on high tax, high cost, high rent US cities, as plenty of people will simply move once they're not tied to an area.   I'm one of them.  My wife and I are currently studying western states to potentially move to.  If I could teleport my New Jersey salary to Idaho or Utah, etc., well, that decision becomes a whole lot easier.



Large companies like Cushman and Wakefield and CB Richard Ellis have been say that for years.  Equity Office basically sold off most of their office building assets 5 years ago.  I think they were smart.  I think buildings will reinvent them selves in the future.  Either way, it mean change and change means more construction for me as uses change.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 15, 2020)

Hawk said:


> *I think buildings will reinvent them selves in the future. *



   Floor One will be restaurants, gyms, and retail, Floor Two through Penthouse will be residential apartments.

That's my prediction anyway.


----------



## Hawk (May 15, 2020)

eastern powder baby said:


> Nice - I have a good buddy with whom I grew up skiing that works for a large firm doing that type of work down in DC. I suppose it makes sense why you guys are earlier than the investment management world. We'll still be a while last I heard.



There are probably 40 buildings in Boston that are in various states of completion right now.  That represents billions of dollars of investments.  Charlie Baker is getting tremendous pressure from the investors, Unions and the Architects and Engineers to get them finished.  It is not good to let half finished buildings sit around.  Buildings are designed to be put up, closed in and finished.  Leaving them open to the elements for an extended period of time is not a good thing. Also, the production of all the pieces on a High rise is always way ahead of the actual installation, at least it theory.  Now you have all those materials sitting around.  Owners do not like to pay for these things until they show up on site.  So you have people that have put up the cost to buy the materials and will not get paid for months.  All a very large intensive for Mass to get construction going.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 15, 2020)

Meanwhile, up in Vermont where COVID19 isn't even a problem, with a grand total of ONE PERSON currently in ICU, the governor just extended the state of emergency another MONTH, park reservations were auto-cancelled through June 25th, and there's still a mandatory 14 day quarantine in place, effectively killing all tourism.   

Freaking insanity, it's now stricter up there than in NEW JERSEY!


----------



## VTKilarney (May 15, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Meanwhile, up in Vermont where COVID19 isn't even a problem, with a grand total of ONE PERSON currently in ICU, the governor just extended the state of emergency another MONTH, park reservations were auto-cancelled through June 25th, and there's still a mandatory 14 day quarantine in place, effectively killing all tourism.
> 
> Freaking insanity, it's now stricter up there than in NEW JERSEY!



But we have to flatten that curve!  (Can you even call it a curve anymore?)

I looked into booking a Vermont weekend getaway for Father’s Day weekend.  The hotel rates at most properties are insane.  It looks like most properties are banking on the restrictions being lifted on June 15th.


----------



## nhskier1969 (May 15, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> I think that's likely true.  That said, if you're one to believe that the way we in the west are fighting COVID19 is the "correct" way, then Japan did dang near everything "incorrectly", save mask wearing.  Pretty much everyone in Japan, China, and South Korea wore masks from the jump.   It seems to me to be the #1 most likely Occam's Razor success factor globally thus far.
> 
> Which is a good time for another screw Fauci reminder.
> 
> _"There's no reason to be walking around with a mask"_- Dr. Anthony Fauci,  March 8, 2020.



Remember at the beginning of all this, we were told that mask are infective for the virus.  Then several weeks latter they said we should wear a mask, Unbelievable.  I tell you, I would like to have those several weeks back.  If the CDC didn't lie to us, the United States would be 10x in a better position than we are now.  Lesson learned.


----------



## Edd (May 15, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Meanwhile, up in Vermont where COVID19 isn't even a problem, with a grand total of ONE PERSON currently in ICU, the governor just extended the state of emergency another MONTH, park reservations were auto-cancelled through June 25th, and there's still a mandatory 14 day quarantine in place, effectively killing all tourism.
> 
> Freaking insanity, it's now stricter up there than in NEW JERSEY!



I agree with the sentiments that we’re just not designed for a prolonged quarantine and we have no choice but to loosen up sooner than later. 

If the population of VT explodes by allowing tourism, won’t the cases explode? I presume VT has a fraction of the medical resources of NJ. 

That’s what keeps coming to my mind living an hour north of Boston. Cases are low here but if we open up, how bad does it get when people flood north?


----------



## icecoast1 (May 15, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Meanwhile, up in Vermont where COVID19 isn't even a problem, with a grand total of ONE PERSON currently in ICU, the governor just extended the state of emergency another MONTH, park reservations were auto-cancelled through June 25th, and there's still a mandatory 14 day quarantine in place, effectively killing all tourism.
> 
> Freaking insanity, it's now stricter up there than in NEW JERSEY!



And stricter than NY, the hardest hit state in the US


----------



## EPB (May 15, 2020)

Edd said:


> If the population of VT explodes by allowing tourism, won’t the cases explode? I presume VT has a fraction of the medical resources of NJ.
> 
> That’s what keeps coming to my mind living an hour north of Boston. Cases are low here but if we open up, how bad does it get when people flood north?



I also suspect this is the rationale behind their caution. It would be great to get some honest analysis/reporting on how Florida has been able to fare as well as it has while serving as a magnet all this time. I suspect the heat, minimal contact between visitors and locals and the fact visitors all return to the northeast/wherever else are contributing factors. Just a guess.


----------



## tumbler (May 15, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> Remember at the beginning of all this, we were told that mask are infective for the virus.  Then several weeks latter they said we should wear a mask, Unbelievable.  I tell you, I would like to have those several weeks back.  If the CDC didn't lie to us, the United States would be 10x in a better position than we are now.  Lesson learned.



Yeah, this never made much sense and baffled me.  Isn't it easy to ask people to wear a mask.  Maybe they thought it would create mass hysteria where supermarkets were cleaned of all toilet paper.  Oh, wait.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 15, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> But we have to flatten that curve!  *(Can you even call it a curve anymore?)*



Not with ICU patients.   You mathematically cannot have a curve with N=1.

I'd be flipping pissed right now if I was a Vermont business owner who's about to go belly-up with almost no cash on-hand.


----------



## dblskifanatic (May 15, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> *Note to self:*
> 
> Purchase S&P500 call option expiry for the 1st BLS jobs report post moronic government "unemployment incentive" cessation.
> 
> ...



Ahhh!  That would be a problem!  Why work for 26 weeks or however long it is!  Our son got furloughed and is getting $600 more per month than when he was working!


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## dblskifanatic (May 15, 2020)

Hawk said:


> Looks like I am back to full time work on Monday.  The growing consensus is that Charlie Baker will send back all construction workers on Monday.  We had an all hands covid office procedures training today in preparation. Not sure if I have to go in right away. I hope not. Some might be interested in the company policies being implemented. So they told us:
> - try very hard to not do public transportation or car pool.
> - Mask on from car all the way to your desk and back to your car.
> - Social distance!  All the time as much as as you can.
> ...



I have been working from home but about to return to the office June 1st with the same rules.


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## Domeskier (May 15, 2020)

Can we use our elevator button sticks to swat away coworkers who invade our personal space?


----------



## kingslug (May 15, 2020)

Commercial real estate is going to change for sure. No reason to fill buildings with people who talk on themphone all day and answer emails. Hudson Yards should have a fun time with this!


----------



## JimG. (May 15, 2020)

Hawk said:


> Looks like I am back to full time work on Monday.  The growing consensus is that Charlie Baker will send back all construction workers on Monday.  We had an all hands covid office procedures training today in preparation. Not sure if I have to go in right away. I hope not. Some might be interested in the company policies being implemented. So they told us:
> - try very hard to not do public transportation or car pool.
> - Mask on from car all the way to your desk and back to your car.
> - Social distance!  All the time as much as as you can.
> ...



I guess you're lucky they didn't recommend that you float at all times to avoid touching the floor.

Glad you're back to work hope all works out well. Stay healthy!


----------



## skiur (May 15, 2020)

tumbler said:


> Yeah, this never made much sense and baffled me.  Isn't it easy to ask people to wear a mask.  Maybe they thought it would create mass hysteria where supermarkets were cleaned of all toilet paper.  Oh, wait.



They said not to wear masks because they knew that there was not enough of them.


----------



## andrec10 (May 15, 2020)

kingslug said:


> Commercial real estate is going to change for sure. No reason to fill buildings with people who talk on themphone all day and answer emails. Hudson Yards should have a fun time with this!



What Hudson Yards real estate goes for, yeah, that place will never fill now.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 15, 2020)

Domeskier said:


> Can we use our *elevator button sticks* to swat away coworkers who invade our personal space?



_Another BG prediction:  _

Voice activated elevator installation becomes standard, and the elevator button stick industrial complex goes bankrupt.



andrec10 said:


> *What Hudson Yards real estate goes for, yeah, that place will never fill *now.



I think that's the place where the Jets were going to build a stadium so they wouldnt be the New Jersey Jets.  Forget the saga's conclusion, but I imagine it was too expensive.


----------



## thetrailboss (May 15, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Meanwhile, up in Vermont where COVID19 isn't even a problem, with a grand total of ONE PERSON currently in ICU, the governor just extended the state of emergency another MONTH, park reservations were auto-cancelled through June 25th, and there's still a mandatory 14 day quarantine in place, effectively killing all tourism.
> 
> Freaking insanity, it's now stricter up there than in NEW JERSEY!



But VT doesn’t have NJ’s hospital capacity 


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## BenedictGomez (May 15, 2020)

thetrailboss said:


> But *VT doesn’t have NJ’s hospital capacity *




True; Vermont doesn't. 

But at a current ratio of 1 in 623,500 residents in COVID19 ICU, I think Vermont's doing just fine.

In NJ we're at a ratio of 1 in 5,832 residents in COVID19 ICU.

But Vermont's laws are even stricter than ours.  Because........something.....


----------



## VTKilarney (May 16, 2020)

thetrailboss said:


> But VT doesn’t have NJ’s hospital capacity
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



And it doesn’t have New Jersey’s population, which is a rather important detail you left out.


----------



## Smellytele (May 16, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> True; Vermont doesn't.
> 
> But at a current ratio of 1 in 623,500 residents in COVID19 ICU, I think Vermont's doing just fine.
> 
> ...



... they don’t want to become NJ


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## skiur (May 16, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> ... they don’t want to become NJ
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Who would?


----------



## deadheadskier (May 16, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> ... they don’t want to become NJ
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


They won't. 

The curve has been flattened and that's what this shutdown was designed to do. Yes, there is potential for spikes, but I can tell you for certain that those managing the largest Health system in VT want things to get back as close to normal as possible quickly. They certainly aren't asking the state to keep the brakes on.  I sold a substantial piece of business there 6 months ago and they've come back to me in the past two weeks to try and renegotiate the terms of the deal because of their financial distress.

Hospitals in hard hit areas feel the same way.  In Boston I work with one of the hardest hit hospitals by this virus in the country.  I have had a few meetings with one of the Medical Directors of the ICU recently including yesterday.  These meetings typically start with a review of how they're doing with Covid.  Yesterday they said they're feeling some relief and on the downward trend. It was the first time he spoke without serious worry. We talked about the country opening up and how worried they were about that.  He basically said he's a doctor and not looking forward to the continued deaths the virus will bring and anticipates a lot of them.  But, he doesn't feel health systems will be overwhelmed.  He was pretty pragmatic in that it's the nastiest widespread accute disease he's ever seen that will cause continued great suffering for awhile until there's a vaccine, but we are just going to have to let it run its course from here as painful as that might be for many people. 

I was all for the shutdowns the first month until we had a true handle on what we were dealing with.  It's easy to play Monday morning QB and say perhaps we overreacted and should have only isolated the vulnerable.  But, we could face another one of these things someday that's even worse where everyone is vulnerable.  So, I don't feel in the future we should be more lax in our initial national response to a pandemic.  Gather data as quick as you can and let it drive the policy.  Maybe that's where we will be better next time having learned from this episode that is now causing such great economic consequences. 

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## nhskier1969 (May 16, 2020)

Gotta love CNN. They like to create more bad news so they get more impressions online to increase ad dollars.
Anyway, they showed States who had increases or decrease over the past week.  One of the states they referenced was Maine.  As you can see in the map below, Maine is up a whopping 34% over last week.  Total cases increased by 1.

Great Headline CNN.


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## deadheadskier (May 16, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> Gotta love CNN. They like to create more bad news so they get more impressions online to increase ad dollars.



Newsflash about mainstream and really all news sources; they ALL do this.  Appeals to emotion is great for business.

Your outrage here with CNN is selective based upon your personal bias.

Lead story on Fox News at this very moment:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/as-u-s-coronavirus-death-toll-mounts-so-does-the-belief-it-is-exaggerated

They're doing the same thing in the opposite direction





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## BenedictGomez (May 16, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> ... *they don’t want to become NJ*



I'm old enough to remember when all decisions were going to be based on facts & science.


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## BenedictGomez (May 16, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> They won't.
> 
> The curve has been flattened and that's what this shutdown was designed to do. Yes, there is potential for spikes, but I can tell you for certain that those managing the largest Health system in VT want things to get back as close to normal as possible quickly. They certainly aren't asking the state to keep the brakes on.



Vermont got even "less worse" than the little mathematical projection I made for you.  I dont think they ever hit even 20 simultaneous ICU patients.


----------



## drjeff (May 16, 2020)

I fully get the big picture, long range view VT is taking with their extension right now, including the 14 day quarrantine if you travel into the state now 

Next weekend is Memorial day Weekend. If VT can limit travel into the state next weekend, which in their eyes will likely greatly reduce the chances of a potential spike in cases in the coming weeks, then that gives the state a better chance at opening back up for the Summer season in a larger way 

Is this overkill? Depends on how one views things and their personal feelings on risk.

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## BenedictGomez (May 16, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> *Lead story on Fox News at this very moment:*
> 
> https://www.foxnews.com/us/as-u-s-coronavirus-death-toll-mounts-so-does-the-belief-it-is-exaggerated
> 
> They're doing the same thing in the opposite direction



What's wrong with it?    

It provided multiple ways COVID19 deaths are perhaps both being under-reported & over-reported as well as pointed out some that are debunked as opposed to plausible.  That's a subject I'm interested in, and I think that article did perhaps the best job I've seen in terms of cobbling together the various ways of potential under & overreporting that are currently hypothesized.

Pretty dang near 100% sure you didnt bother reading the article you linked.


----------



## nhskier1969 (May 16, 2020)

I am from out state,  I still would like to see the Governor allow Killington to open for one more weekend.  Use the same rules that apply for golf course but go a step further.  Killington could open up for Memorial day weekend to Vermont residence who have a season ticket from Killington.  No Ikon.  Again, this affects me because I am  from out of state and Ikon pass holder.  The Governor should do this just to give the people of Vermont a better hope for the future.  I would recommend any Vermont residence skier should call the Governors office until he listens, also fill up the Governors facebook account until he listens to the citizens of Vermont.  Christ Vermont people voted for him he needs to listen to the people not the other way around.


----------



## deadheadskier (May 16, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> What's wrong with it?
> 
> It provided multiple ways COVID19 deaths are perhaps both being under-reported & over-reported as well as pointed out some that are debunked as opposed to plausible.  That's a subject I'm interested in, and I think that article did perhaps the best job I've seen in terms of cobbling together the various ways of potential under & overreporting that are currently hypothesized.
> 
> Pretty dang near 100% sure you didnt bother reading the article you linked.


I'm 100% dang sure you are wrong. I did read it.  Did you? lol

There's some good information to ponder and there's some downright biased generalizations.

If you can't tell that from the headline to much of the inner contents of the article that the goal is an appeal to the emotions of people who are angry and feel that Covid is overblown, to make them further question and doubt the honesty of the medical community; then you're quite foolish.  

Exact opposite of what CNN was trying to do in making Covid seem worse than it actually is.

Both articles were written to support confirmation bias in their target audience. 

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----------



## Puck it (May 16, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> Newsflash about mainstream and really all news sources; they ALL do this.  Appeals to emotion is great for business.
> 
> Your outrage here with CNN is selective based upon your personal bias.
> 
> ...



I raise you one.  I bet this occurring in a lot of places and much higher since the age of death is so high.  CDC rules says that COVID can not the primary cause of death if there are underlying conditions as the flu could cause the death too.

[h=1]Colorado amends coronavirus death count - says fewer have died of COVID-19 than previously reported[/h]
https://www.foxnews.com/us/colorado-lowers-coronavirus-death-count


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 16, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> I'm 100% dang sure you are wrong. I did read it.  Did you? lol
> 
> There's some good information to ponder and there's some downright biased generalizations.
> 
> ...



The article literally presented instances of how undercounting & overcounting could occur.  Literally.   Why even bother providing all the ways undercounting could be occurring if it's basically propaganda as you're suggesting.   And it's nothing like the CNN example you're falsely equivocating it with, which was genuinely mathematically absurd as was pointed out.


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 16, 2020)

If someone dies from something like a heart attack or kidney failure, or any of 100 other non-related things, and the postmortem blood sampling detects COVID19, they absolutely should not be counted as a COVID19 death.  I'm all for those adjustments down being made.   

I'm also against counting COVID19 deaths just because a doctor "suspects" it as opposed to verifying it with a simple lab test.  New York State added thousands to the tally in that manner.  I imagine some were & I imagine some weren't. But dont guess as in almost all instances you do more harm to your date set than good.


----------



## Puck it (May 16, 2020)

This is the guy that I have been following. He has a lot of interviews on YouTube. 


Recent studies conducted by Stanford University Professor of Medicine Dr Jayanta Bhattacharya have concluded “the coronavirus is less deadly than experts realised”. Studies across a range of counties in the United States found “roughly about three to four percent of the population in these counties show evidence of antibodies to COVID-19," Dr Bhattacharya told Sky News host Andrew Bolt. “What that means is roughly 50 times more people have had the disease than we have realised based on case counts alone”. Dr Bhattacharya said COVID-19 was “likely to have a fatality rate of 1-2 in 1000 rather than 30 in 1000 which is what the World Health Organisation originally said”. However, he said despite the higher than expected evidence of antibodies in the population, the United States was not close to achieving herd immunity “which would require a very substantial fraction of the population to be infected”.


----------



## deadheadskier (May 16, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> The article literally presented instances of how undercounting & overcounting could occur.  Literally.   Why even bother providing all the ways undercounting could be occurring if it's basically propaganda as you're suggesting.   And it's nothing like the CNN example you're falsely equivocating it with, which was genuinely mathematically absurd as was pointed out.


You're missing the point entirely.  Your extreme bias pretty much renders you unable to look at things objectively and independently.  

Again both articles were written to support confirmation bias in their target audience. There's some useful information in both, there's some gross generalizations in both.  That's what both CNN and Fox News does with virtually all of their programming.  If you're liberal, you'll tend to see Fox as more guilty of this. If you're conservative you'll see CNN as more guilty.  If you're independent, you'll see the BS from both.  

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## Smellytele (May 16, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'm old enough to remember when all decisions were going to be based on facts & science.



The issue with this has been the “facts and science” has changed since the beginning of all of this multiple times.


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## drjeff (May 16, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> The issue with this has been the “facts and science” has changed since the beginning of all of this multiple times.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


And often a second part to this statement is that as things have changed (often due to either more data or a better understanding) rarely is there a retraction or amending of the initial statement if it indeed wasn't accurate.

We're becoming a society where admitting one may of been wrong about something initially, seems like it's the worst thing they could do.

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## VTKilarney (May 16, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> The issue with this has been the “facts and science” has changed since the beginning of all of this multiple times.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Nobody believed that cloth masks were a bad idea.  That was all about trying to control supply and demand.


----------



## machski (May 16, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> I am from out state,  I still would like to see the Governor allow Killington to open for one more weekend.  Use the same rules that apply for golf course but go a step further.  Killington could open up for Memorial day weekend to Vermont residence who have a season ticket from Killington.  No Ikon.  Again, this affects me because I am  from out of state and Ikon pass holder.  The Governor should do this just to give the people of Vermont a better hope for the future.  I would recommend any Vermont residence skier should call the Governors office until he listens, also fill up the Governors facebook account until he listens to the citizens of Vermont.  Christ Vermont people voted for him he needs to listen to the people not the other way around.


If Killington did reopen, it would be ugly.  Snowbird (also a Powdr resort) has elected to not reopen as they feared too much pent up demand would flood the ski area and LCC.  Mt. Bachelor, ironically also a Powdr resort, has re-opened for season passholders only (this year they are not tied into Ikon) and by reservation only.  Limit is 500 skiers a day on two lifts (Sunrise and Summit) giving access to quite a bit of terrain, way more than Killington could hope to offer.  Given Killington would have 1 lift and maybe 3 TTB routes if lucky, what would they do, 50-100 skiers/day?  No way they re-open under those type of restrictions, too many passholders would be shut out and pissed.  So it really doesn't matter what the government does in my mind, the logistics are totally unworkable.

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## Edd (May 16, 2020)

machski said:


> If Killington did reopen, it would be ugly.
> 
> Sent from my SM-T830 using AlpineZone mobile app



Yeah, this has been stated on this forum multiple times. It just seems so obvious that it’s a dumb idea and I don’t get the obsession with opening K this season.


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## Smellytele (May 16, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> Nobody believed that cloth masks were a bad idea.  That was all about trying to control supply and demand.



That is not what they told the peasants 


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## Not Sure (May 16, 2020)

Edd said:


> Yeah, this has been stated on this forum multiple times. It just seems so obvious that it’s a dumb idea and I don’t get the obsession with opening K this season.



Maybe a lottery for tickets like they do for hunting licenses ,limit sales, some accommodations for pass holders day? It would be a good dry run for fall with predictions of more cases . 

I think the obsession has to do with the glacier on the web cam and the woods still having snow ,June seems to be a given this year .


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## cdskier (May 16, 2020)

Edd said:


> Yeah, this has been stated on this forum multiple times. It just seems so obvious that it’s a dumb idea and I don’t get the obsession with opening K this season.



I agree. Why bother? I really don't see much of a point. What's the value for K to do this? If they have to limit it to VT passholders only, you'll just piss off the rest of the passholders. Then they'll start complaining that they should get a bigger credit than the people who were able to go for a "last weekend." They may not even be able to contractually exclude the Ikon passholders. I also have a hard time believing K wouldn't be overrun even if they put limits and rules in place with all the pent up demand.


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## drjeff (May 17, 2020)

cdskier said:


> I agree. Why bother? I really don't see much of a point. What's the value for K to do this? If they have to limit it to VT passholders only, you'll just piss off the rest of the passholders. Then they'll start complaining that they should get a bigger credit than the people who were able to go for a "last weekend." They may not even be able to contractually exclude the Ikon passholders. I also have a hard time believing K wouldn't be overrun even if they put limits and rules in place with all the pent up demand.


Let's also not forget that if they tried to limit things, even after the VT residency issue would be dealt with hypothetically, and you keep it to passholders, would it just be the Killington specific passes or would IKON passholders, if they still have days left on their IKON'S, be in the mix as well? 



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## skiur (May 17, 2020)

Ski season is over on the east coast.  Except it.


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## Newpylong (May 18, 2020)

It aint over until K's glacier cats are moved back over to the shop!


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## icecoast1 (May 18, 2020)

Newpylong said:


> It aint over until K's glacier cats are moved back over to the shop!



Will be interesting to see how long it lasts this year with the lack of skiing/grooming and the cooler spring so far.  I wouldn't be shocked to still see snow well into June


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## Newpylong (May 18, 2020)

And now it's over lol.


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## sull1102 (May 19, 2020)

Congrats to Waterville Valley baby!!! Last to close in the East 2020


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## EPB (May 19, 2020)

sull1102 said:


> Congrats to Waterville Valley baby!!! Last to close in the East 2020
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


The Sununu's really took Live Free or Die to heart.

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## snoseek (May 19, 2020)

eastern powder baby said:


> The Sununu's really took Live Free or Die to heart.
> 
> Sent from my VS988 using AlpineZone mobile app



Yeah he sure wasn't quick to shut down and I was calling it out. Since then his overall response to all this has been reasonably cautious. Does he actually own it or a family member.


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## JDMRoma (May 19, 2020)

sull1102 said:


> Congrats to Waterville Valley baby!!! Last to close in the East 2020
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Cannon, BrettonWoods and Waterville all closed on the same day. March 18th


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## machski (May 19, 2020)

snoseek said:


> Yeah he sure wasn't quick to shut down and I was calling it out. Since then his overall response to all this has been reasonably cautious. Does he actually own it or a family member.


The family company owns Waterville, not Chris himself.  He was the GM after the family bought it but gave that up when he got the Governorship.  He has no direct personal ties to Waterville now.  During his time on the executive council, he did recuse himself of any votes when state run Cannon or the Sunapee lease came up.

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## BenedictGomez (May 21, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> * Pretty much everyone in Japan, China, and South Korea wore masks from the jump.   It seems to me to be the #1 most likely Occam's Razor success factor globally thus far.   *
> Which is a good time for another screw Fauci reminder.
> _"There's no reason to be walking around with a mask"_- Dr. Anthony Fauci,  March 8, 2020.



Chock another one up for common sense empirical observation > CDC wonks.

This was posted on the CDC website this afternoon noting the virus does not spread easily other than P2P.



> *The virus does not spread easily in other ways*
> COVID-19 is a new disease and we are still learning about how it spreads. It may be possible for COVID-19 to spread in other ways, but these are not thought to be the main ways the virus spreads. From touching surfaces or objects. It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes. This is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads, but we are still learning more about this virus.



No fear of getting takeout anymore due to contaminated containers & packaging.  Guess I'll be getting a pizza tomorrow night.   Also no reason to continue wiping down groceries or laundering clothes when you get home.   I'm surprised Chlorox's stock didnt drop much.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html


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## chuckstah (May 21, 2020)

Also no reason to continue wiping down groceries or laundering clothes when you get home.   



That was a thing?

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## deadheadskier (May 21, 2020)

I'm willing to bet 99% of the early no mask dialogue was because hospitals didn't have enough PPE and it was the CDC realizing they needed to buy time for industry to catch up on supplies for those who truly need it.  It was to stem consumer hoarding.  

Lack of PPE was a serious problem in the early goings. It was the number one thing needed; not ventilators or pulseOX monitors.  It's not normal for owners of football teams to charter planes to travel international to acquire PPE product for healthcare workers in their local communities. 

The CDC aren't the wonks you think they are.  Helluva a lot more brains in that outfit than you; who tirelessly tries to prove you're the smartest guy on the internet for the reward of more glorious self pats on your back.  



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## BenedictGomez (May 22, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> *I'm willing to bet 99% of the early no mask dialogue was because hospitals didn't have enough PPE and it was the CDC realizing they needed to buy time* for industry to catch up on supplies for those who truly need it.  It was to stem consumer hoarding.



This is, for the moment, a conspiracy theory parroted mostly on unreliable far-right places like Breitbart.  Maybe it will end up being true, but there's no evidence of it at the moment, and if it is true the CDC has blood on its' hands.  

What you're suggesting only makes sense if you only give this 2 seconds of thought.  It doesn't make any logical mathematical sense if you really think about it because if you truly believe the R0 of COVID19 is > 2.0 as they claim they did it would be far more important to stop-the-spread than to ensure hospitals & people from sea-to-shining sea almost none of whom (literally) were dealing with serious pandemic spread, weren't all buying masks that were needed in the few hot spots. 

 If you genuinely believe you have a serious PPE shortage, and you genuinely believe you're dealing with a virus with R0 > 2.0, it makes absolutely no logical sense to not do the #1 most important thing you believe there is to stop the virus from spreading.  The math doesn't work.   So yeah, conspiracy theory until proven wrong.



deadheadskier said:


> *The CDC aren't the wonks you think they are.*  Helluva a lot more brains in that outfit than you; who tirelessly tries to prove you're the smartest guy on the internet for the reward of more glorious self pats on your back.



Thanks.  Been there several times.  Interviewed & met with several higher ups over the years.  Constantly had to follow everything they say because it may impact any of dozens of companies over the years.  But I'm sure you know far more than I do, you who tirelessly tries to nastily insult people on the internet for the reward of more glorious........ uhhh... actually, come to think of it I dont know why you're always attacking posters on this website.  You enjoy life I guess.


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## deadheadskier (May 22, 2020)

Not an attack, just an observation of your consistent arrogance, tone deaf communication style and near daily reminders to everyone on this forum that you are smarter than everyone else on virtually all subjects.  

And I haven't been the only to point this out to you.

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## BenedictGomez (May 22, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> Not an attack, just an observation of your consistent arrogance, tone deaf communication style and near daily reminders to everyone on this forum that you are smarter than everyone else on virtually all subjects.



Even if any or all of that were true, it's far better than having a complete & total lack of self-awareness.


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## deadheadskier (May 22, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Even if any or all of that were true, it's far better than having a complete & total lack of self-awareness.


lol

High comedy coming from you BG

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## ScottySkis (May 23, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Even if any or all of that were true, it's far better than having a complete & total lack of self-awareness.



Listen to this advice please
U on here constantly thread of bashing people opinion is big reason to not come on here in more now with what going on in world around usaasss


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## BenedictGomez (May 23, 2020)

ScottySkis said:


> Listen to this advice please
> U on here constantly thread of bashing people opinion is big reason to not come on here in more now with what going on in world around usaasss



Yes, I realize you dont like the COVID19 talk; you've made that abundantly clear numerous times (probably > 6 or 7 times).  Nothing is preventing you from simply ignoring those threads.  Listen to this advice please.


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## ScottySkis (May 23, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yes, I realize you dont like the COVID19 talk; you've made that abundantly clear numerous times (probably > 6 or 7 times).  Nothing is preventing you from simply ignoring those threads.  Listen to this advice please.



Oh I due I don't come on AZ for this reason except for 2 threads that are not virus issues.
I talking about other people who might come to AZ for break from what happens in the world then see fucken bullshit from few regular posters who due it knows no 1 is going take notice because owner is not here to eliminate those people
I don't care about it I moved on to other ski forum with owner and posters are much more civil.
U use to post their years ago why u stop just curious
I not trying to get u back their?


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## Former Sunday Rivah Rat (May 25, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yes, I realize you dont like the COVID19 talk; you've made that abundantly clear numerous times (probably > 6 or 7 times).  Nothing is preventing you from simply ignoring those threads.  Listen to this advice please.



BenedictGomez is one of the few opinions I respect here.  Many of the posts show the complete hysteria that the lamestream media has created. If the media keeps perpetuating this hysteria how are ski areas going to re open?  It's very relevant.  
He is right about Japan and the masks, very obvious those with any critical thinking ability.  

The Centers for Death Curation is another in the long list of captive agencies that serve Big Pharma.  The party line has long been we must obey and cower in fear until a vaccine comes out.  Does the CDC ever talk about boosting one's own immune system naturally?   Never, they are a fraud.


----------



## Newpylong (May 27, 2020)

You both sound like two peas in a pod on this topic.

There are so many Covid experts out there these days I am astonished there are enough workers for other trades.


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## BenedictGomez (May 27, 2020)

ScottySkis said:


> U use to post their years ago why u stop just curious



I still do post there, only during ski season, only about Platty, Gore, or Whiteface.  It's a more limited forum with less activity, and I frankly dont really care for the posting/editing mechanics of whatever engine drives that website, but that's just me.


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## Kleetus (May 28, 2020)

Saw Crystal in WA is opening on June 1st. Add them to the list.


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## MEtoVTSkier (May 29, 2020)

Newpylong said:


> You both sound like two peas in a pod on this topic.
> 
> There are so many Covid experts out there these days I am astonished there are enough workers for other trades.



The only reason basket weavers and the rest of the liberal arts grads have recently found work! :grin:


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## BenedictGomez (Jun 5, 2020)

When I was a 20s grunt on the trade floor, one of the grunt-like things I did was read through BLS employment data as soon as it came out.  Today's employment data is not just the biggest miss in the history of that particular data ever (literally), it to my mind has to be the greatest miss in the history of any Wall Street economic data ever.* EVER. * It has been several hours now since it's release, and I am still absolutely, positively, stunned.  I actually started watering up while reading it.


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## jimmywilson69 (Jun 5, 2020)

care to explain, in layman's terms please


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## BenedictGomez (Jun 5, 2020)

jimmywilson69 said:


> *care to explain, in layman's terms please*



Economists estimate was for today's jobs report to show another 8.5 Million Americans *lost* their job.

The unemployment data release this morning showed 2.5 Million Americans actually *gained* new jobs.

Nothing like that has ever happened before, and it shows what's being done to help the economy & workers is working better than anyone ever could have possibly imagined.  It's tremendously positive for our nation & millions of suffering people.  Hopefully this COVID19 malaise will be behind us sooner rather than later.


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## jimmywilson69 (Jun 5, 2020)

interesting...

How could they have missed the mark?  I mean every day things are changing and evolving, but that's like an 11 million job swing


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## BenedictGomez (Jun 5, 2020)

jimmywilson69 said:


> *How could they have missed the mark? * I mean every day things are changing and evolving, but that's like an 11 million job swing



If I knew that I'd be rich right now.   

But were I to speculate, I'd suggest that whenever you're dealing with something that's never happened before, you tend to get your biggest forecasting errors as you have less prior evidence to lean on & increased variables to input.  That IMO is likely what happened, though even that said this is absurdly dramatic.  Clearly economists nationwide were far more negative about how things are going than is the reality.


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## machski (Jun 5, 2020)

jimmywilson69 said:


> interesting...
> 
> How could they have missed the mark?  I mean every day things are changing and evolving, but that's like an 11 million job swing


Because the economic crisis right now is not rooted in economics, rather from government interventions for a medical viral outbreak crisis.  As far as I'm concerned, the markets are not reacting as one might expect.  The unemployment numbers do not jive with the filings for unemployment insurance as some of these recipients are back to work already as sectors open and some on unemployment now would have never been eligible pre-covid for unemployment anyway (and this probably would not be counted now as unemployed on the jobs report).  This entire crisis from a financial/economic perspective is really totally new ground for economists and the market to digest and try to make sense of.

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## jimmywilson69 (Jun 5, 2020)

both of those are really good responses.  thanks for the info.


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## VTKilarney (Jun 5, 2020)

Gorham, New Hampshire just passed a resolution allowing all businesses in the town to open.

Your move, Sununu.


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## deadheadskier (Jun 5, 2020)

They all can on 6/15.  50% capacity restrictions on restaurants.  Wouldn't surprise me if many push that limit and test it's enforcement 

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## Smellytele (Jun 5, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> They all can on 6/15.  50% capacity restrictions on restaurants.  Wouldn't surprise me if many push that limit and test it's enforcement
> 
> Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app



I heard but could be wrong some counties it’s 50% some counties 100%


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## thebigo (Jun 5, 2020)

Strafford, rockingham, hillsborough and merrimack county are 50% restaurant occupancy; rest of the state is 100%. Sununu said something around 95% of cases in the state are in the four southeast counties, which makes sense considering 1M of the states 1.35M live in the four southeast counties. Kicker is all restaurants are supposed to maintain 6' between parties, in other words every other booth and probably half the tables. Do not know if reservations are still required, personally I like the reservation system the last couple weeks. Not sure about bar seats either, 6' between bar stools would probably defeat the purpose.


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## mister moose (Jun 5, 2020)

W-u-u-u-u-u-u-u-t?  Economists were wrong?  Models were not correct?  Well, that's a first.


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## VTKilarney (Jun 5, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> They all can on 6/15.  50% capacity restrictions on restaurants.  Wouldn't surprise me if many push that limit and test it's enforcement
> 
> Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app



No, they all can’t.

From the article: _Reopening dates for fitness centers to allow customers inside, nail salons and other services are expected to be announced this month._

https://www.pressherald.com/2020/06/03/gorham-defies-state-declares-all-businesses-open/#


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## deadheadskier (Jun 5, 2020)

My bad.  

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## thebigo (Jun 5, 2020)

Standing on my back porch, looking at the moon. Let's not loose track of the fact that the alarm should be going off soon, I should be waking up a 7 year old to head to k, she would want the shirt but also smash bumps all morning.


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## BenedictGomez (Jun 6, 2020)

How many restaurants can even make enough money to survive if Friday - Sunday attendance is limited to 50% occupancy?  This nightmare needs to end already.  I've noticed people aren't taking it anywhere near as seriously here in Jersey lately,  and if that's the spirit here then people aren't taking it seriously anywhere anymore.


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## skiur (Jun 6, 2020)

thebigo said:


> Standing on my back porch, looking at the moon. Let's not loose track of the fact that the alarm should be going off soon, I should be waking up a 7 year old to head to k, she would want the shirt but also smash bumps all morning.



Covid or not, K would be closed right now.

https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain/superstar-cam


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## VTKilarney (Jun 6, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> How many restaurants can even make enough money to survive if Friday - Sunday attendance is limited to 50% occupancy?  This nightmare needs to end already.  I've noticed people aren't taking it anywhere near as seriously here in Jersey lately,  and if that's the spirit here then people aren't taking it seriously anywhere anymore.



None can survive, which is why Gorham, NH told Sununu to pound sand.  

There are consequences when Governors come out in support of thousands of protesters gathering together, no matter how laudable the cause.  By endorsing the protests, they have lost all credibility over their social distancing edicts.


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## VTKilarney (Jun 6, 2020)

The tag line is “Facts, not fear.”  But perhaps the way to get skiing is to protest something.

View attachment 26916


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## thebigo (Jun 6, 2020)

skiur said:


> Covid or not, K would be closed right now.
> 
> https://www.killington.com/the-mountain/webcams/mountain/superstar-cam



Not that it matters but they weren't done blowing. Also the headwall always melts out first, two years ago the headwall was all of a dozen feet wide on closing weekend. I suspect either today or tomorrow would have been closing day.


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## machski (Jun 6, 2020)

thebigo said:


> Not that it matters but they weren't done blowing. Also the headwall always melts out first, two years ago the headwall was all of a dozen feet wide on closing weekend. I suspect either today or tomorrow would have been closing day.


Lots of snow above and below the dreaded S that could have been moved around.  More may have been planned to be stacked there in the final 48 hours they never finished.  With that said, they always go too thin under the chair crossover (guess they don't want snow height too close to chair).  So WHEN they replace SS quad, while that is already quite high, perhaps they can extend the crossover height just a bit more to allow for more snow under it.  Hard to tell, but the upper pitch looks decent right now.

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## BenedictGomez (Jun 6, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> *By endorsing the protests, they have lost all credibility over their social distancing edicts.*



Yup.  This was the breaking point for me, and from reading social media, I believe literally millions of other Americans in terms of saying, _"screw your ******* lockdown"_.  And given same politicians criticized the handful of much, much, much smaller anti-lockdown protests as "irresponsible", "foolish" and "dangerous" they're make their cognitive dissonance nakedly political as well.   I had been doing my part adhering to all these reindeer game rules & regulations even though I now disagreed with them from a scientific standpoint on the basis that if everyone else is doing this sacrifice then I will too.  No more.  The family is about to get in the car & go to a small pool & BBQ gathering in (GASP) Pennsylvania to see friends we haven't seen in almost 4 months.  Screw Murphy.  Screw Wolf.


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## cdskier (Jun 6, 2020)

thebigo said:


> Not that it matters but they weren't done blowing. Also the headwall always melts out first, two years ago the headwall was all of a dozen feet wide on closing weekend. I suspect either today or tomorrow would have been closing day.



On the flipside, there was also no grooming and very little skiing on that snow in the past 2.5 months. That helped preserve what you see now. If they had been grooming that snow and moving it around up until now, I doubt you would have still had much left by now and think June 1 would have been as far as they went.


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## Former Sunday Rivah Rat (Jun 6, 2020)

Excellent point BG, the only silver lining is that we can use this to say no to any future bullshit lockdowns.   Excerpt and link to a good article on the topic. 

"But we're not out of the lockdown woods yet. This fall, politicians and other lockdown advocates are likely to start up again with demands that new laws be passed requiring people to stay home, shut down their businesses, and otherwise put life on hold in the name of stopping COVID-19.

But it's unlikely that the public will fall for the same routine twice in a row. At least not to the same extent. The reaction of many will likely be "we've heard this song and dance before. Besides, social distancing didn't matter to these experts back during the riots. Why should we believe them now?"

It's a good question."


https://mises.org/power-market/moral-authority-lockdown-fetishists-gone-thank-protestors-and-rioters


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## jg17 (Jun 6, 2020)

Was lucky enough to get reservations for Crystal today, awesome to be able to be out there in June, especially after the sudden shutdown. Good base but the melty spots are melting quickly, you can only drop into the main bowl from two narrow cat tracks so soon there won't be any lines possible without hiking. Was able to snag a reservation for tomorrow for the season closer.

Reservations are for one hour blocks to upload the gondola, we were able to park in the first lot for our 9am slot despite many spaces being left open for social distancing. Restaurant and bar at the top of the gondola is open for takeout, base lodge closed except for restrooms and outdoor bar for apres. Patrol was enforcing social distancing in the lift line but people were pretty good about it, I think Crystal nailed it with how many guests they allowed. Very well managed for a week of bonus spring skiing, but will be interesting to see how it goes if/when they need to scale it in the winter when the full resort is open.

Apologies on the sideways pics, I can't figure out how to stop the site from reorienting them...


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## jimk (Jun 6, 2020)

jimmywilson69 said:


> care to explain, in layman's terms please


Some more discussion on the May jobs report forecast error:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...forecast-miss-could-have-policy-ramifications


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## ss20 (Jun 15, 2020)

Not skiing but about as non-essential as you can get... NASCAR is hosting a race in Tennessee on July 15.  Capacity capped at "only" 30,000 fans out of 150,000 capacity.  Masks are not mandatory, and there's no limits on where you come from (they've had races with fans already in extremely small numbers but with the caveat you have to live in the area).   

If NASCAR can get 30,000 people on there asses in an outdoor stadium with out-of-state travel I fail to see how ski resorts won't be able to get infinitely smaller numbers of people out on the lifts and on trails.


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## chuckstah (Jun 15, 2020)

No doubt skiing will be back at 20 percent capacity like the Nascar race. But it will need to be a way higher percentage than that  to make skiing tolerable. Every state will be different as things are now. 

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## DoublePlanker (Jun 15, 2020)

I just don't get the reaction to the pandemic in this thread.  It seems like lockdown has worked in many areas.  What are folks expectations for the pandemic this fall or winter?   If the outbreak worsens significantly, then what then?   Just let people die of it?

I think Sununu has been reasonable using data driven decisions.

I'm hoping the virus just goes away but doesn't seem to be doing that.   

I also know that the economic devastation is a worse problem.  Wearing a mask seems to work well.  What is the problem with that?

It sucked to not be skiing in March and April.  I'm optimistic there will be skiing this winter.  I just don't know how its going to be in cold and flu season with covid19 in the mix.  Seems like it will be a panic.  Perhaps masks and some distancing cuts down on colds and flu.


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## Zermatt (Jun 16, 2020)

DoublePlanker said:


> I just don't get the reaction to the pandemic in this thread.  It seems like lockdown has worked in many areas.  What are folks expectations for the pandemic this fall or winter?   If the outbreak worsens significantly, then what then?   Just let people die of it?
> 
> I think Sununu has been reasonable using data driven decisions.
> 
> ...



If everyone wore a mask indoors in public places and outdoors in high density settings the pandemic would be over.  Masks don't prevent all infections but they break enough chains in the spread of infection to drive the R0 well below 1.0.  You could literally end it within weeks.


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## tumbler (Jun 16, 2020)

Stark contrast between VT and NH now.  NH is almost back to fully open while VT seems to be going backwards for some reason- Scott just extended the state of emergency for another month.  The mandatory 14 day quarantine in VT is silly at this point.  People have been quarantining for months, just make masks required for when you can't social distance.  From the CAX article: 

Another contrast -- out-of-state guests staying in New Hampshire simply need to self-attest to quarantining in their home state before coming


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## trackbiker (Jun 16, 2020)

The problem is people aren't following the guidelines. Here in PA restaurants opened with outdoor dining last week. Too many people think things are "back to normal". I went by a brewery this past weekend that had a large outdoor area. The place was packed and social distancing was not being practiced. If you were even there you couldn't social distance if you wanted too. I also saw a group of 20 somethings playing a full court basketball game last night with 5 on a side and some on the sidelines. As far as the virus, nothing has changed. There is no cure or proven treatment. The infection rates are going to go right back up.


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## Smellytele (Jun 16, 2020)

Up at Pinkham notch I was really surprised that so many out of staters were there. Not just New England plates but Maryland, Virginia and other mid Atlantic states. Also South Carolina. Not many NH plates. Can only imagine what ski areas would have been like if they reopened in April/May.


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## BenedictGomez (Jun 16, 2020)

tumbler said:


> Stark contrast between VT and NH now.  NH is almost back to fully open while VT seems to be going backwards for some reason- Scott just extended the state of emergency for another month.  The mandatory 14 day quarantine in VT is silly at this point.



There have only been 2 COVID19 deaths in Vermont in a month; that's 1 in every 310,000 people.


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## Smellytele (Jun 16, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> There have only been 2 COVID19 deaths in Vermont in a month; that's 1 in every 310,000 people.



I guess the state of emergency is working. [emoji40]


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## BenedictGomez (Jun 16, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> *I guess the state of emergency is working.* [emoji40]



I put a sign in my yard that says, "ALIENS WILL BE SHOT ON SIGHT", and we haven't had a space invasion or alien abduction yet.   You cant argue with those results!


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## VTKilarney (Jun 16, 2020)

Tons of out of state plates in Lincoln tonight.  The self attesting rules are a joke.


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## Smellytele (Jun 17, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> Tons of out of state plates in Lincoln tonight.  The self attesting rules are a joke.



Including yours? [emoji16]


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## kingslug (Jun 17, 2020)

Its spiking all over the place..get ready for round 2.


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## slatham (Jun 17, 2020)

kingslug said:


> Its spiking all over the place..get ready for round 2.



Other than the isolated outbreak in Winooski VT, where in the NE are cases spiking? Or are you referring to the South and Southwest?


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## Former Sunday Rivah Rat (Jun 17, 2020)

*Spiking my ass*



kingslug said:


> Its spiking all over the place..get ready for round 2.



Spiking my ass.  The only thing spiking is the fear mongering BS from the presstitutes in the media pushing the false narrative of a second wave.  

Here in MA the 7 Day Weighted Average of Positive Molecular Test Rate is DOWN 91% over the last month.  All the numbers are way down here. 

https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-june-16-2020/download

Look at the numbers yourself.  The media is just going to push their BS narratives for clickbait.  Use your head:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


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## VTKilarney (Jun 17, 2020)

kingslug said:


> Its spiking all over the place..get ready for round 2.



Vermont has exactly one person in the hospital.


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## Dickc (Jun 17, 2020)

Sunday Rivah Rat said:


> Spiking my ass.  The only thing spiking is the fear mongering BS from the presstitutes in the media pushing the false narrative of a second wave.
> 
> Here in MA the 7 Day Weighted Average of Positive Molecular Test Rate is DOWN 91% over the last month.  All the numbers are way down here.
> 
> ...



Some of those numbers are a bit misleading.  The total cumulative cases is a combination of molecular testing AND antibody testing.  If I had this in say early March, and was never tested then, and I get an antibody test today, I'm added to the total case count both for the day, and for the total.  In my opinion, I should be listed as a PRIOR case, and not a current one.  The metrics do not seem to allow for that.


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## icecoast1 (Jun 17, 2020)

kingslug said:


> Its spiking all over the place..get ready for round 2.



Is it actually spiking as in the percentage of positive tests going up or is it simply more positive cases as a result of more testing?  To be honest I've stopped paying attention to the day to day of it, I fail to see why anybody would be surprised by an increase as more people start to go out though, the original point was not to not overwhelm the hospital system, we did that and are better equipped to handle things than we were 2 months ago. Time to start returning to normal.


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## BenedictGomez (Jun 17, 2020)

kingslug said:


> Its spiking all over the place..get ready for round 2.



Two things:

1) This is still Round (cycle) 1.

2) This is more of media narrative than reality.  YES, the cases are rising elsewhere, but this should be totally expected.  And no hospitol system, not even "Arizona" or "Florida", which you keep hearing about are overrun.  Deserves monitoring, but this is not the dire scenario (not yet anyway) that the media's selling.


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## kingslug (Jun 18, 2020)

And its going to get better with people acting as if it doesn't exist anymore? OK. Guess we will see.


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## machski (Jun 18, 2020)

People are going to do as they are going to do now.  The only thing anyone can do is self assess a situation if you go out and if you don't feel comfortable with it, get the hell out of dodge.  My company's flying is rebounding and I've been to several states in the past month, Florida included.  Everywhere I've ate has been done social distancing responsibly, inside or out.  I'm sure some are not, we avoid those scenes.  Personal responsibility is what it comes down to.

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## tumbler (Jun 18, 2020)

And now the VT health commissioner is telling VT residents not to travel out of state.  If this is their recommendation for the residents there is no chance they will lift any restrictions of people to travel there beyond what they have done.  Many businesses will fold and the population will rate will drop even faster than it is now.  And the legislature cannot even pass an aid bill for the residents.  What a mess.


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## VTKilarney (Jun 18, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> I'm willing to bet 99% of the early no mask dialogue was because hospitals didn't have enough PPE and it was the CDC realizing they needed to buy time for industry to catch up on supplies for those who truly need it.  It was to stem consumer hoarding.





BenedictGomez said:


> This is, for the moment, a conspiracy theory parroted mostly on unreliable far-right places like Breitbart.  Maybe it will end up being true, but there's no evidence of it at the moment, and if it is true the CDC has blood on its' hands.
> 
> What you're suggesting only makes sense if you only give this 2 seconds of thought.  It doesn't make any logical mathematical sense if you really think about it because if you truly believe the R0 of COVID19 is > 2.0 as they claim they did it would be far more important to stop-the-spread than to ensure hospitals & people from sea-to-shining sea almost none of whom (literally) were dealing with serious pandemic spread, weren't all buying masks that were needed in the few hot spots.
> 
> If you genuinely believe you have a serious PPE shortage, and you genuinely believe you're dealing with a virus with R0 > 2.0, it makes absolutely no logical sense to not do the #1 most important thing you believe there is to stop the virus from spreading.  The math doesn't work.   So yeah, conspiracy theory until proven wrong.



Hmm...


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## VTKilarney (Jun 18, 2020)

machski said:


> People are going to do as they are going to do now.



Agreed.  And it is going to be because of one simple reason.  The government tricked them.  The government told people to lose their business and jobs and to stay home in order to flatten the curve.  But when it was clear that the curve had been flattened the government moved the goalposts.

People got fooled once.  They won't be fooled again.


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## Edd (Jun 18, 2020)

Can’t imagine why the media would be “spreading panic” about a new disease with nearly 120k deaths in the US so far this year. 

I work 12+ hour shifts wearing a mask. Masks aren’t new to me. I do pharmaceutical manufacturing and there are a number of tasks requiring masks for up to a few hours at a time. Nowadays, it’s masks all day. I don’t enjoy it. My site will be manufacturing components for a COVID vaccine in July, if all goes as planned (it rarely does, but these are strange times). 

So, living in NH, when I see someone in a store not wearing a mask I’m annoyed, to put it mildly.


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## thebigo (Jun 18, 2020)

Sununu released guidance on amusement parks today, may provide some insight into what next ski season will look like: 

-25% capacity
-face coverings required
-ride capacity limited to allow 6' between parties
-temperature scans 
-anyone that has traveled outside Maine, NH or Vermont within the last 14 days will not be admitted


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## EPB (Jun 18, 2020)

thebigo said:


> -anyone that has traveled outside Maine, NH or Vermont within the last 14 days will not be admitted



Just curious. Are there any measures in place to enforce this?

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## Smellytele (Jun 18, 2020)

thebigo said:


> Sununu released guidance on amusement parks today, may provide some insight into what next ski season will look like:
> 
> -25% capacity
> -face coverings required
> ...



The biggest amusement park Canobie lake park in NH is on the Mass border. 80% of the customers are from Mass so cutting them out could get them down to 20-25%. 
The other large one, water country is the same situation.


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## deadheadskier (Jun 18, 2020)

If I were a business owner, I'd want a scientific explanation behind the 25% capacity rules. Seems like a highly arbitrary number.  

What added protection to the public does that provide?  Im guessing no one can answer that. 

I'm in no rush to hang out in a crowded nightclub again anytime soon, but I don't fault others for wanting to do that.  

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## kingslug (Jun 19, 2020)

Pissed that Rammstein will probably not be playing at the Garden..Been waiting 5 years for them to come back...oh well..I guess I can blast them on the movie theater system and set everything on fire..it will be just like being there!


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## cdskier (Jun 19, 2020)

kingslug said:


> Pissed that Rammstein will probably not be playing at the Garden..Been waiting 5 years for them to come back...oh well..I guess I can blast them on the movie theater system and set everything on fire..it will be just like being there!



When were they supposed to be at the Garden? I thought their 2020 US tour was a stadium tour?

Although it is funny you mention this as I've been watching quite a few of the Rammstein live videos on youtube lately (including a bunch from shows at MSG years ago)


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## kingslug (Jun 20, 2020)

Sept 10..your right..its at Met life Stadium. I have tickets but will probably get a refund..sux. I missed them at Jones Beach..didn't know they were there but did see them twice at the Garden.


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## thebigo (Jun 24, 2020)

Attitash and wildcat announced limited summer operations. Alpine slide only at Attitash and chair rides only at wildcat, no gondolas this year. Cannot imagine operations on this scale will be profitable maybe they are looking at it as a trial for the winter. Lengthy safety message appears canned from Vail: only ride chairs with people in your party, face masks required, no cash, to go food only, 6' spacing in lift lines, etc.

https://www.skiwildcat.com/summer-safety/
https://www.attitash.com/summer-safety/


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## machski (Jun 24, 2020)

Yeah, and no summer ops at Sunapee this year to boot 

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## icecoast1 (Jun 24, 2020)

machski said:


> Yeah, and no summer ops at Sunapee this year to boot
> 
> Sent from my Pixel 3 using AlpineZone mobile app



No Mountain Biking at Mount Snow.  Vail must be in major cash saving mode (not really a surprise)


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## ss20 (Jun 25, 2020)

Vail is going to play it as safe as possible.  Because shareholders don't want to see anything get shutdown again and lose confidence.


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## machski (Jun 25, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> No Mountain Biking at Mount Snow.  Vail must be in major cash saving mode (not really a surprise)


That is kind of sad, Snow used to be one of the bigger MTN Bike areas in NE.  

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