# Weekend 18-20 Feb



## hammer (Feb 15, 2012)

OK, this is a stretch but with such a warm dry season so far...from the latest NWS local discussion:



> MODEL DISCUSSION...15/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEYOND THAT THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE DIFFERENCES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE DIFFERENCES COME IN THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE ECWMF/UKMET/GEFS TAKE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TRAVELS OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKES THE SAME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND AND NORTHEASTWARD RIGHT OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN OF THE GFS TO SHOW THIS COASTAL STORM AND GIVEN THE LACK OF SUPPORT FROM OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...AM NOT PUTTING A LOT OF CREDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME PRECIP... LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH SO WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT...BUT WILL NOT BE TAKING THE GFS SOLUTION AS A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST.


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## Angus (Feb 15, 2012)

Reading a meteorology BB, everyone seems deeply skeptical about this storm actually evolving the way this particular model is predicting. Funny, they all like snow as much as we do! I'm headed west Saturday morning and just want to get out without any delays - wouldn't that be perfect!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 15, 2012)

Everyone is slagging the GFS, but the UK trended pretty far north today from where it was previously and the Euro moved slightly north (although it's still far south) too.  

WTH knows what will happen at this point, but at least the models are mostly trending north, which at least gives us a glimmer of hope.  Gotta be in it to win it.  If the GFS is correct though, it's a potential season-saving Godsend for the Poconos.


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## k123 (Feb 15, 2012)

Pray to the snow gods!

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Belleayre/6day/mid


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## 4aprice (Feb 15, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> Everyone is slagging the GFS, but the UK trended pretty far north today from where it was previously and the Euro moved slightly north (although it's still far south) too.
> 
> WTH knows what will happen at this point, but at least the models are mostly trending north, which at least gives us a glimmer of hope.  Gotta be in it to win it. * If the GFS is correct though, it's a potential season-saving Godsend for the Poconos.*



Season savings?  Move it north to Northern New England.  The Pocono's are doing just fine.  Camelback is 100% open with a decent base.  As much as I like snow there I would much rather see it fall up north.  It would take a major melt down to kill the Pocono season.  This year has been proof of what good snowmaking can do and don't be surprised if Camelback continues to blow given the opportunity.  They would love to be the last to close in the Pocono's and have events scheduled up to the end of March.  Move it north.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 15, 2012)

4aprice said:


> *Season savings?  Move it north to Northern New England.  The Pocono's are doing just fine. * Camelback is 100% open with a decent base.  As much as I like snow there I would much rather see it fall up north.  It would take a major melt down to kill the Pocono season.  This year has been proof of what good snowmaking can do and don't be surprised if Camelback continues to blow given the opportunity.



Seriously?   I was at Camelback about a week ago, conditions were, lets just say, less than optimal.  Yes, I agree they've clearly done an amazing job given the fact there's been absolutely no snowfall, but to say they're "doing just fine" compared to Northern New England is a substantial overstatement.  

If they were to pick up 10" it would be huge.  And if that happens, you better believe I'll be at Shawnee, Blue, or Camelback next week (depending on the storm path).


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## jrmagic (Feb 15, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> Seriously?   I was at Camelback about a week ago, conditions were, lets just say, less than optimal.  Yes, I agree they've clearly done an amazing job given the fact there's been absolutely no snowfall, but to say they're "doing just fine" compared to Northern New England is a substantial overstatement.
> 
> If they were to pick up 10" it would be huge.  And if that happens, you better believe I'll be at Shawnee, Blue, or Camelback next week (depending on the storm path).



So then let it come north and come hit SoVT:flame:


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## 4aprice (Feb 15, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> Seriously?   I was at Camelback about a week ago, conditions were, lets just say, less than optimal.  Yes, I agree they've clearly done an amazing job given the fact there's been absolutely no snowfall, but to say they're "doing just fine" compared to Northern New England is a substantial overstatement.



You should have been there last Sunday.  I skied there following a week up in Vermont and I'm telling you the conditions were better at CBK then they were up in Vermont.  The front 4 were all fresh blow man-made powder snow.  They will make it through March and when the weather warms the spring snow will be great  I would take the snow in the Pocono's but would rather see it up north.  Yes there has been plenty of hard pack and ice but I ran into that up north as well.  Spring is great at Camelback and as long as they make it through March I'll be happy with that.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## kingslug (Feb 16, 2012)

This latest forecast for the Cats does not look all that good. With warm temps and freezing nights...only hope is for more than 4 inches which would at least make Sunday morning skiable...think I'll sit this one out...unless.....


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## hammer (Feb 16, 2012)

Latest discussion update...



> COASTAL STORM TRACKING S OF NEW ENG SUNDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO DEAL WITH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE EXTENT OF CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NE AND HOW QUICKLY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DEPARTS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTHWARD THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GETS.  00Z MODEL SUITE ACTUALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF COASTAL STORM.
> 
> GFS IS STILL FURTHEST N SOLUTION BUT NOT BY A WIDE MARGIN AS ECMWF HAS TRENDED N...AND ECMWF HAS SUPPORT OF THE UKMET AND ALSO GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST BUT GAVE SOME WEIGHT TO THE GFS AS WE CANT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT IT AS THE STORM IS STILL MORE THAN 72 HRS AWAY.  IT DOES APPEAR THIS STORM WILL AT LEAST GRAZE COASTAL SNE AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.


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## gmcunni (Feb 16, 2012)

is this english? 



> GFS IS STILL FURTHEST N SOLUTION BUT NOT BY A WIDE MARGIN AS ECMWF HAS TRENDED N...AND ECMWF HAS SUPPORT OF THE UKMET AND ALSO GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST BUT GAVE SOME WEIGHT TO THE GFS AS WE CANT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT IT AS THE STORM IS STILL MORE THAN 72 HRS AWAY. IT DOES APPEAR THIS STORM WILL AT LEAST GRAZE COASTAL SNE AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.


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## 4aprice (Feb 16, 2012)

gmcunni said:


> is this english?



ie.  We've been burned so many times this winter that we will just admit, we don't know whats going to happen.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## St. Bear (Feb 16, 2012)

4aprice said:


> ie.  We've been burned so many times this winter that we will just admit, we don't know whats going to happen.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



It's funny (in a sad kind of way), how the weather people are getting more and more pessimistic and discouraged.

What started out as "Could be a storm!" turned into "There's a chance!" turned into "I guess it's possible".


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## hammer (Feb 16, 2012)

What's interesting is that the models are trending more towards a storm but the forecasters are remaining pessimistic.  In all honesty I'm not that optimistic either, especially for NNE.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 16, 2012)

hammer said:


> What's interesting is that the models are trending more towards a storm but the forecasters are remaining pessimistic.  In all honesty I'm not that optimistic either, especially for NNE.



Yeah, if anything, this storm is starting to look good for the Poconos, possibly,_ really _good.  But there would have to be a pretty major change for this to be decent for NNE.  The 12z will hopefully shed some more light on this.


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## 4aprice (Feb 16, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yeah, if anything, this storm is starting to look good for the Poconos, possibly,_ really _good.  But there would have to be a pretty major change for this to be decent for NNE.  The 12z will hopefully shed some more light on this.



Snowing in the Pocono's right now.  Actually snowing in NNJ right now as well.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## ScottySkis (Feb 16, 2012)

4aprice said:


> Snowing in the Pocono's right now.  Actually snowing in NNJ right now as well.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



I just saw that on radar nice.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 16, 2012)

And now it's looking bleak for anything more than a few inches even for the Poconos.  Hopefully this thing shifts northwest somehow.   Le sigh; the winter-that-wasnt may continue.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 16, 2012)

O





BenedictGomez said:


> And now it's looking bleak for anything more than a few inches even for the Poconos.  Hopefully this thing shifts northwest somehow.   Le sigh; the winter-that-wasnt may continue.



Maybe time to go to Slc


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## 4aprice (Feb 16, 2012)

Still snowing in the Pocono's.  From the Camelback web cams it looks like maybe 1 or 2 inches.  Turned to rain here in NNJ.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## ScottySkis (Feb 16, 2012)

Snowing all day in north Vermont.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 16, 2012)

Scotty said:


> Snowing all day in north Vermont.



Really? Sweet. Must be an elevational thing, bc it hasn't snowed in nVT where the gf's family lives.

  Rain/snow mix here now in Saugerties area on 87, hopefully that switches to snow for the Cats folk!


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## ScottySkis (Feb 16, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> Really? Sweet. Must be an elevational thing, bc it hasn't snowed in nVT where the gf's family lives.
> 
> Rain/snow mix here now in Saugerties area on 87, hopefully that switches to snow for the Cats folk!



Mad River Glen FB page said they got couple inches and Sugarbush said snow, hopefully we all get snow at our hills.


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## billski (Feb 16, 2012)

*Feeling Weather Love from Cannon!*

Tim Kelly is cranked about this weekend.  Sitting at the top of Cannon, feeling the love.  Just watching the video is enough to get optimistic.


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## billski (Feb 16, 2012)

I really hope it comes.  I want to see a lot of cash and plastic dropped over the next week.  Wishing all you vacationers a wonderful, fun week ahead, getting some of the best conditions of the year.  Now, I've go to go find out where Tim Kelly was standing...


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## hammer (Feb 17, 2012)

and this one's another bust...



> THE STORM FOR SUNDAY THAT HAD BEEN FORECAST EARLIER IN THE WEEK HAS NOW BEEN MODELED TO GO FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH PERHAPS BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH CLOUDS AT MOST... CORRESPONDING TO THE ECMWF FORECAST ALL WEEK.


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## 4aprice (Feb 17, 2012)

hammer said:


> and this one's another bust...



Time to face the music.  Its just not going to happen this year.  Long range show teleconnections that = warm March.:evil:  This is the winter I have feared now for several seasons come true.  The good news is it is almost over and we can look forward to next year.  Thank god for man-made snow or we would have nothing.  Will enjoy the spring snow as long as it lasts but don't expect to be skiing that late this year.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## WinnChill (Feb 17, 2012)

hammer said:


> and this one's another bust...



Weird that they said it was "forecasted" for Sunday when only outlier data suggested it a possibility.


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## pepperdawg (Feb 17, 2012)

hammer said:


> and this one's another bust...



Mmmmmmm brushed with clouds at the most........


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## billski (Feb 17, 2012)

Ahem.

Cough, cough.

I think you boys and girls might want to hit the road.

First time in a while I've seen the "P" and "PP" words.


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## WinnChill (Feb 17, 2012)

hammer said:


> and this one's another bust...



After looking at their past discussions from this week, they never expected much impact other than the south coast from this thing anyways.


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## hammer (Feb 17, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> After looking at their past discussions from this week, they never expected much impact other than the south coast from this thing anyways.


Not blaming the forecasters on this one at all...just started the thread to see where the hype would go.


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## WinnChill (Feb 17, 2012)

hammer said:


> Not blaming the forecasters on this one at all...just started the thread to see where the hype would go.



I hear ya.  I started to wonder if someone really bit on it--as much as I'd love to follow all the forecasts and other forecaster discussions, I actually avoid it as much as possible so I'm not swayed in my own forecasting.  Weird but true.


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## drjeff (Feb 17, 2012)

I thought that this picture kind of sums it up pretty well


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## MommaBear (Feb 17, 2012)

4aprice said:


> Time to face the music.  Its just not going to happen this year.  Long range show teleconnections that = warm March.:evil:  This is the winter I have feared now for several seasons come true.  The good news is it is almost over and we can look forward to next year.  Thank god for man-made snow or we would have nothing.  Will enjoy the spring snow as long as it lasts but don't expect to be skiing that late this year.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ




I can't believe how depressed this post just made me.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 17, 2012)

MommaBear said:


> I can't believe how depressed this post just made me.


+1


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## billski (Feb 17, 2012)

MommaBear said:


> I can't believe how depressed this post just made me.



Please don't move to the dark side.  I'm afraid you'll be leaving us for Beachzone.com. 

Anyways, I'm still in denial.  :-?


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## 4aprice (Feb 17, 2012)

MommaBear said:


> I can't believe how depressed this post just made me.



I truely hope I'm wrong but the signs are just not pointing that way.  I was optimistic up until this point but that has now faded.  I hope I'm wrong.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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