# Northeast May Have Coldest Winter in a Decade



## faceplant (Sep 28, 2009)

*U.S. Northeast May Have Coldest Winter in a Decade (Update2) *
By Todd Zeranski and Erik Schatzker

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Northeast may have the coldest winter in a decade because of a weak El Nino, a warming current in the Pacific Ocean, according to Matt Rogers, a forecaster at Commodity Weather Group.

“Weak El Ninos are notorious for cold and snowy weather on the Eastern seaboard,” Rogers said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Washington. “About 70 percent to 75 percent of the time a weak El Nino will deliver the goods in terms of above-normal heating demand and cold weather. It’s pretty good odds.”

Warming in the Pacific often means fewer Atlantic hurricanes and higher temperatures in the U.S. Northeast during January, February and March, according to the National Weather Service. El Nino occurs every two to five years, on average, and lasts about 12 months, according to the service.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long positions, or bets prices will rise, in New York heating oil futures in the week ended Sep. 22, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data Sept. 25.

“It could be one of the coldest winters, or the coldest, winter of the decade,” Rogers said.

U.S. inventories of distillate fuels, which include heating oil, are at their highest since January 1983, the U.S. Energy Department said Sept. 23. Stockpiles of 170.8 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 18 are 28 percent above the five-year average.

Heating oil for October delivery rose 1.38 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at $1.6909 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

To contact the reporter on this story: Todd Zeranski in New York at tzeranski@bloomberg.net; Erik Schatzker in New York at eschatzker@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 28, 2009 15:52 EDT


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## Greg (Sep 28, 2009)

Works for me!


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## andrec10 (Sep 28, 2009)

Let it Rip!!!

Wow, and no worries of GSS making a snide comment! How liberating!


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## TheBEast (Sep 28, 2009)

I say, "Bring it on!"


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## Moe Ghoul (Sep 28, 2009)

Lotsa consensus amongst the weatherheads about this coming winter season. Steezy.


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## Glenn (Sep 29, 2009)

Good deal! At least the snow makers will be chugging along.


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## RootDKJ (Sep 29, 2009)

Now that's a forecast!


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## WoodCore (Sep 29, 2009)

It's about time we had a really cold and snowy winter. Let's hope the forecasters are correct.


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## bigbog (Sep 29, 2009)

Sure hope you're right _*faceplant*_.
How I love the sound of a snowblower in the morning....


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## Puck it (Sep 29, 2009)

I have read other reports saying the same thing but using the sunspot cycle.  The number of sunspots has been very low this year and remains.  Can't find the article now.  

Here are couple of other articles that are good reading.

http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Solar_Arch_NY_Mar2_08.pdf?wwparam=1254228169

http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm


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## St. Bear (Sep 29, 2009)

WoodCore said:


> It's about time we had a really cold and snowy winter. Let's hope the forecasters are correct.



Because 2007/2008 when NH set snow records was too long ago?

Wait, what am I saying?  You're right, it was too long ago.  Let it snow!


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## AMAC2233 (Sep 29, 2009)

07/08 did set snow records, but I do remember reading that there was also an unusually high amount of thaw / freeze cycles (snow wasn't sustained). Here's to hoping this year's better.


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