# Possible Nor'easter for 11/27



## catsup948 (Nov 21, 2009)

This is 6 days away but there may be a coastal storm primed to hit interior New England late next week.


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## MommaBear (Nov 21, 2009)

ooohhh, I got goosebumps!!


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## andrec10 (Nov 21, 2009)

Dont mean to be a downer, but I will believe it when i see it! I hope I am wrong though!


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## catsup948 (Nov 21, 2009)

I generally don't believe Accuweather but they seem to think there is a potential for a storm. We will have to wait until tuesday or wednesday to figure this one out. Seems like it will be a perfect set up though. Cold air filtering in from CA and a big low pressure riding up the coast! I'm skiing somewhere on the 28th so I hope it snows heavily on friday and into friday night.


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## KingM (Nov 21, 2009)

catsup948 said:


> This is 6 days away but there may be a coastal storm primed to hit interior New England late next week.



From your mouth to Ullr's ears.


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## TheBEast (Nov 21, 2009)

Bring it!!!


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## Masskier (Nov 21, 2009)

Either way after next week we should at least be in  a colder weather pattern.


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## billski (Nov 21, 2009)

catsup948 said:


> This is 6 days away but there may be a coastal storm primed to hit interior New England late next week.


   Where did you get that from?  I have no patience staring at computer models.  I'll let Scotty do the GZ dance....  Don't show around here if you are wrong! ;-)


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## wa-loaf (Nov 21, 2009)

billski said:


> Where did you get that from?  I have no patience staring at computer models.  I'll let Scotty do the GZ dance....  Don't show around here if you are wrong! ;-)



They mentioned the possibility of something on the news last night.


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## billski (Nov 21, 2009)

wa-loaf said:


> They mentioned the possibility of something on the news last night.


Well, Scotty and Leon are buzzing hopefully about it too.   Waaaaaay too early for me!
http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weather/


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## wa-loaf (Nov 21, 2009)

billski said:


> Well, Scotty and Leon are buzzing hopefully about it too.   Waaaaaay too early for me!
> http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weather/



I'll be ready to hit the Loaf if it does. Expect nothing, but prepare for the worst (or best when we are talking blizzard).


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## Shock (Nov 21, 2009)

*fingers crossed*

I tend to not get too hyped into the longer range predictions, but I hope it's true.  My skis sit ready for whenever they're needed.


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## riverc0il (Nov 22, 2009)

It would be nice but it would be a turn earners feast only. No way it would cause enough base for any places not planing to open next weekend to get a deep enough base down. That would leave a few freshies for uploading at Sunday River and maybe K if they can get their lower elevation trails covered again. If it happens, I will enjoy it and skiers and riders will rejoice that winter has finally decided to get with the program. But I would not go getting your skis ready unless you plan on waiting in long lines for the one or two areas that will actually be open on very limited trails.


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## KingM (Nov 22, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> It would be nice but it would be a turn earners feast only. No way it would cause enough base for any places not planing to open next weekend to get a deep enough base down. That would leave a few freshies for uploading at Sunday River and maybe K if they can get their lower elevation trails covered again. If it happens, I will enjoy it and skiers and riders will rejoice that winter has finally decided to get with the program. But I would not go getting your skis ready unless you plan on waiting in long lines for the one or two areas that will actually be open on very limited trails.



Well, sorta. If a resort is planning to open anyway, a foot of natural snow could greatly increase the number of trails they're able to open. Instead of 3 or 4, you might get 10 or 12. Also, if the weather stays colder after the Nor'easter passes, it could make a huge difference for what gets open by the first weekend in December.


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## wa-loaf (Nov 23, 2009)

I heard the word snow mentioned on the radio in relation to the mtns for this Friday ...


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## billski (Nov 23, 2009)

wa-loaf said:


> I heard the word snow mentioned on the radio in relation to the mtns for this Friday ...


  the NWS is putting the word in for Fri/Sat.  But the forecast temps are so marginal that it's destined to be a snow/rain mix :evil:  even if that's right.  Not sure what I'm gonna do.  Seems the stores have run out of leaf bags


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## drjeff (Nov 23, 2009)

The potential dynamics of this storm that may prove to be the bad guy is that while computer models look to have this thing being of decent size, power, and moisture ladened , it's headed into a warm pool of air with even the "cold" air on the backside of the low being not real cold   To the front and right of the low's track, it's all liquid preicp   Even behind and to the left of the low's track there will likely be places where there just won't be enough cold to make it a frozen event   

What will hopefully happen is that this low will help usher in a pattern change that will open up the cold air from the arctic to get in here and make the atmosphere very condusive for snow for the weather systems following this one


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## JPTracker (Nov 23, 2009)

snow-forecast.com is forecasting 8 - 9 inches of snow for the top of Jay Peak Friday night into Saturday

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Jay-Peak/6day/top


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## wa-loaf (Nov 23, 2009)

billski said:


> Well, Scotty and Leon are buzzing hopefully about it too.   Waaaaaay too early for me!
> http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weather/



I wish he'd post an update. Friday was a long time ago ...


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## billski (Nov 23, 2009)

JPTracker said:


> snow-forecast.com is forecasting 8 - 9 inches of snow for the top of Jay Peak Friday night into Saturday
> 
> http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Jay-Peak/6day/top



Man, I want some of what they are drinking/smoking!


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## JPTracker (Nov 23, 2009)

National Weather Service is also forecasting snow for Friday - Sunday  

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/northeastWeek.php#tabs


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## SKIQUATTRO (Nov 23, 2009)

will be tracking www.swellinfo.com very closley......water is still nice...prayn' for snow and surf


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## billski (Nov 23, 2009)

JPTracker said:


> National Weather Service is also forecasting snow for Friday - Sunday
> 
> http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/northeastWeek.php#tabs



JPTRACKER, It's three days before Thanksgiving.  YOUR AVATAR IS KILLIN' ME!!!!   you're soo cruel....


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## psyflyer (Nov 23, 2009)

*November 27-28 Storm Speculation*

I read at the jay peak website that their meteorolgist is forecasting potentially foot of snow into Saturday... That would be the perfect way to kick-start the season at Jay!  Still early but hopefully it pans out.


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## Highway Star (Nov 23, 2009)

Yawn.  Good luck with a snowstorms forecast 5 days out.  You could ask those guys what lottery ticket numbers to play and would probably have better luck......


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## psyflyer (Nov 23, 2009)

Highway Star said:


> Yawn.  Good luck with a snowstorms forecast 5 days out.  You could ask those guys what lottery ticket numbers to play and would probably have better luck......



Given how the season started Ill take anything I can get.  My local TV weather guy also said it could sizeable snow-wise, of course he is also mostly wrong on these type of calls...


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## riverc0il (Nov 23, 2009)

I have frequently seen these type of storms rain on everyone and dump on Jay. During the lift serviced season, these are my all time favorite storms because the Jay doubters and nay sayers stick their nose up in the air and everyone else sees rain and no one wants to gamble on a wash out. I have been skunked before with wash outs by far more often than not, Jay lines up just right between the precip and the cold to get the best of both worlds when most other places get rain. I am planning on earned turns at Jay on Saturday for sure.


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## Johnskiismore (Nov 23, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> I have frequently seen these type of storms rain on everyone and dump on Jay. During the lift serviced season, these are my all time favorite storms because the Jay doubters and nay sayers stick their nose up in the air and everyone else sees rain and no one wants to gamble on a wash out. I have been skunked before with wash outs by far more often than not, Jay lines up just right between the precip and the cold to get the best of both worlds when most other places get rain. I am planning on earned turns at Jay on Saturday for sure.



Positive snow vibes for you!  Darn it I have to work!


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## polski (Nov 23, 2009)

I know this is still a pretty long way off and for most places any snow would be falling on zero base and all the rest, but I gotta say just reading the NWS BTV forecast discussion -- getting back into that winter weather-watching groove, and seeing beautiful terminology like "EXCELLENT UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS" again -- has me PSYCHED, even if it doesn't pan out into anything immediately skiable.


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## Masskier (Nov 23, 2009)

Area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
652 pm est mon nov 23 2009

lots of things could change between now and then...but with models
in relative agreement confidence is moderate. Looks to be an very
elevational dependent snow event. Ran a few scenarios here to see
what we may get. Attm it looks like the champlain valley may see
between 1/2" to 2"...but you get over 1000ft and we are talking
several inches. Favored high terrain/mountain locations may see
amounts over 10" by saturday night. Obviously this will impact
travellers on saturday and saturday night. We have issued
hazardous wx outlook and tried to highlight this potential.


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## polski (Nov 23, 2009)

ok, my pulse rate just doubled in the time it took me to read Roger Hill's update today re Jay. Again, it's early, snow-starved people are gonna be prone to wishful thinking etc etc etc but when you read a call of possibly > a foot by Sunday and then maybe > another two feet later next week, well, it's time to PAY ATTENTION


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## wa-loaf (Nov 23, 2009)

They are starting to talk about snow down here. Looking good for the hills. Think I need to change ski day from Fri to Sat.


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## polski (Nov 23, 2009)

Scott's on the case, not at FIS yet but SKIVT-L. I won't even repeat the snowfall total he says one model suggests for Jay/Mansfield, just his conclusion: "if some of the latest data is even remotely close to correct we could go from rags to riches in a hurry this weekend."


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## Bostonian (Nov 24, 2009)

NOAA changed their forecast this morning for K-mart... SNOW for saturday with rain/snow changing to snow on Friday...  Keeping my fingers and toes crossed.


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## riverc0il (Nov 24, 2009)

Jay is not going to open this weekend (no surprise, not cold enough to make top to bottom snow on the Jet or Haynes) which means it will be a turn earners dream come Saturday/Sunday. Bring it!!


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## Glenn (Nov 24, 2009)

As usual this seaon...this will come down to temps. North of Brattleboro...looks like rain. You head over to Dover/Willmington...different story. I think we'll have a better idea later tomorrow into Turkey Day.


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## polski (Nov 24, 2009)

And now let the whipsawing begin. This a.m. NWS BTV says the latest model runs push the weekend storm farther west over New England, which would mean less precip albeit earlier changeover to snow. And they seem to say next week could be either warm or cold ... I'm not going to post every little twist and turn as we wait for whatever happens to happen; I'll just consider this mental conditioning for the season.


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## billskis1 (Nov 24, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> Jay is not going to open this weekend (no surprise, not cold enough to make top to bottom snow on the Jet or Haynes) which means it will be a turn earners dream come Saturday/Sunday. Bring it!!


Lucky dog.  Ah to be 100 miles closer and 20 years younger!


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## drjeff (Nov 24, 2009)

polski said:


> And now let the whipsawing begin. This a.m. NWS BTV says the latest model runs push the weekend storm farther west over New England, which would mean less precip albeit earlier changeover to snow. And they seem to say next week could be either warm or cold ... I'm not going to post every little twist and turn as we wait for whatever happens to happen; I'll just consider this mental conditioning for the season.



That's going to be the big issue with this one.  Track and how it effects what little cold air is available.  Also remember that with this storm that the ocean is still relatively warm, so as the moisture feeds into this storm from the East side of where the low is tracking that it will be adding warmer air into it 

This has happened many times over the last few years with "early season" storms, where the models 5+ days out tend to have the system "colder" then what we see happening in reality since the Atlantic tends to act not just as a moisture source, but also a heater right now.  

The Good thing though is there finally looks to be a good pool of some COLD air associated with a High Pressure system up in the general Western Part of Hudson Bay that really looks like it wants to make a run for the East Coast and hit the weather roadblock that it often seems like the St. Lawrence Seaway can be.  And it appears that the wrap around winds behind this Nor'easter just might be enough to get this pool of cold air FINALLY down here!!


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## Warp Daddy (Nov 24, 2009)

Not too excited bout this only a few POSSIBLE snow showers predicted here along the Canadian border . Sounds more like RAINFLAKES to me . I'm waiting for dumpage not WROD;s


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## billskis1 (Nov 24, 2009)

polski said:


> ok, my pulse rate just doubled in the time it took me to read Roger Hill's update today re Jay. Again, it's early, snow-starved people are gonna be prone to wishful thinking etc etc etc but when you read a call of possibly > a foot by Sunday and then maybe > another two feet later next week, well, it's time to PAY ATTENTION


Roger sometimes gets a little too excitable (check his font size) about these things.  Depending on how Scott's prognosis shapes up, we might have something after all.   But as Scott says, if nobody is turnin', you'll be earnin'!


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## billskis1 (Nov 24, 2009)

*NWS has an optimistic voice:*

As of 400 am est tuesday...while the holiday itself will be
rather benign...the holiday weekend will be rather active.
confidence remains high that the north country will see snow this
weekend. But first...the rain...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...WITH
PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE STILL WRAPPING AROUND INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION. WITH NW
FLOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THOUGH THERE IS STILL
QUESTION AS TO THE TIMING OF THE RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...AND ALSO THE RAIN
SNOW RATIO. RIGHT NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT A LOW RATIO WET TYPE OF
SNOW. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT TEMPERATURE PROFILES BARELY
SUPPORT SNOW IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. BUT IT IS STILL POSSIBLE
THAT SEVERAL INCHES WILL FALL IN HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.


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## Glenn (Nov 24, 2009)

I want to jump out the window every time I hear one of the achors say to the weather guy lately: "Well, at least this rain isn't snow!" 

Although, I know the weather guy on the channel I watch is probably doing a slow burn when they say that because he's a big snowmobiler.


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## billski (Nov 24, 2009)

Glenn said:


> I want to jump out the window every time I hear one of the achors say to the weather guy lately: "Well, at least this rain isn't snow!"
> 
> Although, I know the weather guy on the channel I watch is probably doing a slow burn when they say that because he's a big snowmobiler.



Fix:
1. Rent a dump truck.
2. Go to the local ice rink and pickup all their zamboni discards.
3. Go to the TV station and dump it sufficient to block in Mr./Ms. weather liecaster's card.


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## billski (Nov 24, 2009)

*The man speaks*

"Finally after weeks of boredom we may actually have something of importance occur weather-wise.  The jury is still out this storm but the potential for is there for a long-duration precipitation event"

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weather/


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## riverc0il (Nov 24, 2009)

Matt Noyes posted a 10 minute discussion in his On Demand video section:
http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/

Pretty cool how he posts technical discussion and walks through all the reasoning behind his thoughts showing the various models and his preferences and interpretations of them. His bottom line is 6-12" across Northern New England, especially more in upslope favored areas. Matches up with Scott's forecast.


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## rocojerry (Nov 24, 2009)

nothing kills productivity at work more than forecasted pow.  
Guess i'll be working late tonight.


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## billski (Nov 24, 2009)

Guess it's time to clear all the hiking and soccer gear out of the trunk and re-pack with winter essentials.


​


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## psyflyer (Nov 24, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> I have frequently seen these type of storms rain on everyone and dump on Jay. During the lift serviced season, these are my all time favorite storms because the Jay doubters and nay sayers stick their nose up in the air and everyone else sees rain and no one wants to gamble on a wash out. I have been skunked before with wash outs by far more often than not, Jay lines up just right between the precip and the cold to get the best of both worlds when most other places get rain. I am planning on earned turns at Jay on Saturday for sure.



One day last December during mid-week (early to mid December) at Burke we had 8 inches overnight and a few more into the day, and also Jay got about the same or slightly more.  However most resorts in mid to lower VT got mixed precip, and rain...


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## billski (Nov 24, 2009)

psyflyer said:


> One day last December during mid-week (early to mid December) at Burke we had 8 inches overnight and a few more into the day, and also Jay got about the same or slightly more.  However most resorts in mid to lower VT got mixed precip, and rain...



I'm not holding much hope for the southern greens forecast.  The temps are too marginal.  Would be happy for everyone though to be wrong!


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## Glenn (Nov 25, 2009)

billski said:


> Fix:
> 1. Rent a dump truck.
> 2. Go to the local ice rink and pickup all their zamboni discards.
> 3. Go to the TV station and dump it sufficient to block in Mr./Ms. weather liecaster's card.



My 4x8 trailer could hold a good amount of shavings.......


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## billski (Nov 25, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> Matt Noyes posted a 10 minute discussion in his On Demand video section:
> http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/
> 
> Pretty cool how he posts technical discussion and walks through all the reasoning behind his thoughts showing the various models and his preferences and interpretations of them. His bottom line is 6-12" across Northern New England, especially more in upslope favored areas. Matches up with Scott's forecast.


 
Steve, that was really interesting (I didn't expect so), thanks for pointing it out.
What I liked a lot was the focus on analysis and the regional/n. hemispehre approach to his discussion.  He seems much smarter in his analytical work than the TV forecasts he must present.  What I hate are the forecasts they make these guys force-fit into two minutes.  Those who are competent must be extremely frustrated.


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## o3jeff (Nov 25, 2009)

billski said:


> Fix:
> 1. Rent a dump truck.
> 2. Go to the local ice rink and pickup all their zamboni discards.
> 3. Go to the TV station and dump it sufficient to block in Mr./Ms. weather liecaster's card.





Glenn said:


> My 4x8 trailer could hold a good amount of shavings.......



This was in front of Bank of America in Simsbury yesterday morning. Looks like a ishovelsnow calling card.


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## Glenn (Nov 25, 2009)

That's trailerable!


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## Harvey (Nov 25, 2009)

Or maybe drive the trailer to Jay Peak and park it.


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## JPTracker (Nov 25, 2009)

Latest forecast at www.snow-forecast.com for Jay

Bottom Mountain: 1.1" NCP changing to snow Fri Afternoon - Total Snow by Sun morning: 8.7" 
Mid Mountain: 0.8" NCP changing to snow Fri Morning - Total Snow by Sun morning: 12.6" 
Top Mountain: 0.1" NCP changing to snow Thursday Night - Total Snow by Sun morning:17.8" 

Looks like a trip to Jay is in order.

Maybe even a repeat picture for my avatar


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## awf170 (Nov 25, 2009)

Not to crush your dreams or anything, but snowforcast.com basically has the worst forecasts ever.  The website is a joke.


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## JD (Nov 25, 2009)

Either we ski, or the rivers come up....pow either way.


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## polski (Nov 25, 2009)

Josh Fox (Single Chair Weather Blog) is up with his annual winter forecast. In short: Temps normal to slightly above normal but snowfall "outstanding," 300+ inches for MRG.

edit: probably not the right thread for that. Josh does briefly address the weekend, saying significant accum in higher elevations but not enough to get MRG open.


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## severine (Nov 25, 2009)

o3jeff said:


> This was in front of Bank of America in Simsbury yesterday morning. Looks like a ishovelsnow calling card.



:lol: Yup, I would think he'd be the culprit.


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## billski (Nov 25, 2009)

Oh man, it looks like NVT is gonna get its first hit


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## KingM (Nov 26, 2009)

billski said:


> Oh man, it looks like NVT is gonna get its first hit
> [/IMG]



If, by Northern Vermont, you mean the part of Vermont northeast of Montreal...


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## riverc0il (Nov 26, 2009)

KingM said:


> If, by Northern Vermont, you mean the part of Vermont northeast of Montreal...


The images change as they are three days out so those images are now for Sunday instead of Saturday and indeed the storm will be out of New England by Sunday.


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## billski (Nov 26, 2009)

KingM said:


> If, by Northern Vermont, you mean the part of Vermont northeast of Montreal...


 
Damn! Those lines were perfectly aligned last night at 3 days out. Let's look at 2 days. It's promising, but a little less so now:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml


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## riverc0il (Nov 26, 2009)

I imagine that those maps do not include localized upslope so I wouldn't be too worried...


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## billski (Nov 26, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> I imagine that those maps do not include localized upslope so I wouldn't be too worried...


  As a skier, that's always in the forefront of my mind; I just take my good news any way I can get it.   I see NWS forecasts, which are typically below 2000' as a harbinger.


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## JD (Nov 26, 2009)

Looks real ify.  Gonna be one of those touch and go situations with the changeover.  Looks  like plenty of moisture....over an inch of rain forcast.


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## bigbog (Nov 26, 2009)

Glenn said:


> My 4x8 trailer could hold a good amount of shavings.......


  Glenn, you renovate..ie _expand_ it a little, drive it up to the JP parkin' lot and imho you could get some of us @overnight rates...LOL..
...Will check take a look NW(Maine) for any snow Saturday...


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## KingM (Nov 26, 2009)

At this point, I'll take four inches of snow and a pattern change to cold over anything we've had so far.


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## polski (Nov 26, 2009)

All signs point to this event being extremely elevation-dependent -- assuming the inversion finally goes away, that is ;-) -- especially given the mild temps on the front end. I'm a little surprised to see snow ratios of up to 12:1 forecast but still figure this should be good base-building stuff, and with strong winds expected Saturday we'll want stick-to-your-ribs snow anyway. 

I'm looking for a chance to earn turns Sunday (and notch November on my belt!) but am even more interested in the two systems expected next week. Hoping the first isn't NCP washing out whatever base we start to get this weekend. The second is a week+ away but early indications are we'll be in a colder pattern by then.


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## Masskier (Nov 26, 2009)

Excellent update by Scott over at 

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weather/

Basically it looks like North central and northern Vt above 2000 ft could get 10-24".   YEA


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## billski (Nov 26, 2009)

Masskier said:


> Excellent update by Scott over at
> 
> http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weather/
> 
> Basically it looks like North central and northern Vt above 2000 ft could get 10-24".   YEA



Hit me with your best shot, fire away!!:flame:

Agenda revised:
Before:
Clean gutters.
Bag leaves.
Add mounting brackets for new qiver addition

After:
scrape storage wax off skis, adjust bindings
Load ski bag
Load iTunes ski playlist
Load car, shovel, brush, scraper, overnighter "emergency kit".


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## Johnskiismore (Nov 26, 2009)

Masskier said:


> Excellent update by Scott over at
> 
> http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weather/
> 
> Basically it looks like North central and northern Vt above 2000 ft could get 10-24".   YEA



YIPEE!  Please share some with Cannon!


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## polski (Nov 26, 2009)

Roger Hill also was working on Turkey Day. He thinks Jay could get a foot by Saturday night with 30% chance of 16" at the summit, plus lingering light snow Sunday. He's still looking for even heavier accumulation later next week, though FWIW NWS BTV now seems to think the low Monday won't produce much snow.


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## JD (Nov 27, 2009)

With the absence of March snow last year, and the lack of any this fall, it's been a while since a good ski.  I guess I'm ready.


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## WJenness (Nov 27, 2009)

Pinks and blues starting to work in on Intellicast:






-w


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## billski (Nov 27, 2009)

WJenness said:


> Pinks and blues starting to work in on Intellicast:
> 
> 
> 
> -w


 
Good old Warp-ville!


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## polski (Nov 27, 2009)

At this early stage it looks like southern VT may be a little ahead of the more northerly Greens, though that probably will get flipped when we move from the nor'easter to the upslope part of the program. Aside from the radar imagery, from Twitter within the past hour I see K-ton reports 2" at peak and wet snow at base; Okemo 1" at summit (and their snowguns sit "foaming at the nozzles," heh); Bretton Woods 1-2" at base, more up top; Jay says "it's snowing folks." And I see some big snowflakes among the raindrops in the MRG MadCam at the bottom of the Single.

Changeover seemed to happen pretty early, during heavier precip from the nor'easter. All good.


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## psyflyer (Nov 27, 2009)

Its snowing very heavy here on Burke Mt.  I live at about 1200-1400 ft(not sure exactly) and it started snowing about one hour ago.  Right now we have a solid half an inch on the ground here and the slope looks like all covered with white (lower slope).  I drove to the upper mountin at about 2 p.m. and it was already snowing with what it looked like a good coating on the top of the mountain.  This is really heavy, inch-thick snowflake snow and its piling up pretty fast.  Its looking like a friend and I will hike it tomorrow especially if it keeps going at this rate.  SWEET!


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## billski (Nov 27, 2009)

*Batter up!*





Burkie is burnin' it up!
FINALLY!  Glory, glory halelujia!


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## polski (Nov 27, 2009)

Last several hours it seems N NH has been the sweet spot on that Intellicast radar - big blotch of blue, with heavy precip rotating in off the ocean from the general direction of Portland. Wildcat tweeted a pic of about an inch at the base just before dark, with consistent large flakes falling. Starting to wonder if Cannon might be the bullseye, with decent accumulation from front end (nor'easter, which may be peaking right about now) and solid potential into tomorrow from backside upslope.


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## riverc0il (Nov 27, 2009)

polski said:


> Starting to wonder if Cannon might be the bullseye, with decent accumulation from front end (nor'easter, which may be peaking right about now) and solid potential into tomorrow from backside upslope.


Cannon is officially my personal bullseye for tomorrow regardless of where the storm bullseye is. Cannon will not get the same upslope that the northern Greens will get on the backside of the storm. But with thick base building snow, it is kind of besides the point.


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## riverc0il (Nov 27, 2009)

It is amazing watching the radar loop right now. Sweet!


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## polski (Nov 27, 2009)

Via Facebook:



> *Cannon Mountain* As of 6pm, we've seen 4 or more inches of snow at the base and 2x that at the summit and still snowing!



Steve, agreed Cannon is not likely to get as much upslope as the northern Greens but I suspect they got a significant head start today. If you're thinking Cannon tomorrow and Jay on Sunday I think you've got exactly the right idea. A few factors complicate my own decision-making but most likely I'm looking at MRG or Stowe or (outside chance) Jay on Sunday or possibly Monday.


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## riverc0il (Nov 27, 2009)

One of the benefits to Cannon is the wind protection on the front face. There is no real sheltered areas at Jay whereas trails like Avalanche are great short vert trails close to the parking lot when the summit is being blown to bits.

Snow total projections for NoVT seem to have come down considerably even with the upslope. I have concluded there is definitely no reason to drive all the way to NoVT until actual numbers have been reported. 4" at the base of Cannon is way more than what is being reported in VT so far.


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## billski (Nov 27, 2009)

*BFP article on the storm:*

Snip:
Just for fun, here's my prediction for snow accumulation in a few places. (Let's see how close I get)
Burlington: 0.2 inches.
St. Albans: 0.5 inches.
Montpelier 2.5 inches.
Waitsfield 5.0 inches.
Northfield 7.0 inches.
Top of Mt. Mansfield: 11 inches
Top of Jay Peak: 15 inches.

Snip:
Meteorologists at NWS Burlington have compiled of list of years with very late first snows. Most of those years, but not all of them, went on to have below average snow for the season:
Here's a list of latest first measurable snows, and the seasonal snowfall that winter. Normal snowfall is about 80 inches

FIRST SNOW SNOW TOTAL THAT SEASON
12/7/1937 ............................45.1 inches.
12/5/15................................ 54.4 inches.
12/1/48................................ 40.7 inches.
11/30/18 ..............................69.6 inches.
11/30/53.............................. 83.6 inches.
11/30/60 ..............................51.6 inches
11/28/13............................... 56.5 inches
11/27/41............................... 57.7 inches.
11/26/82............................... 80.5 inches
11/25/57............................... 94.9 inches.


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## polski (Nov 27, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> One of the benefits to Cannon is the wind protection on the front face. There is no real sheltered areas at Jay whereas trails like Avalanche are great short vert trails close to the parking lot when the summit is being blown to bits.


And it's gonna be some windy tomorrow ... though I recall skiing Cannon the day after the 2007 Valentine's Day storm (in 26") and it was one of the few areas around that had lifts not on windhold. That included the tram to the summit. I saw an explanation of this phenomenon once but forget now what it was. Pretty sure those were NW winds that day, and there were 6' whalebacks up top from the storm itself.



> Snow total projections for NoVT seem to have come down considerably even with the upslope. I have concluded there is definitely no reason to drive all the way to NoVT until actual numbers have been reported. 4" at the base of Cannon is way more than what is being reported in VT so far.


I don't recall anyone predicting much dumpage in the northern Greens before this evening though. That said, a little discouraging to see current temp at Stowe base (1640') is 35.6F ... What happens overnight is key. That Intellicast radar is now lit up blue all the way down the Greens and through the Berkshires so the higher elevations should be getting whacked.

As this is gonna be far from blower no matter what, I'm not worried about only getting sloppy seconds. So my current plan is to see who finds what where tomorrow, head north Sun a.m., earn some turns that afternoon and grab some more Mon a.m. (possibly with a little refresh then). Main thing is I've confirmed my new AT setup is ready to go, with skins to have been trimmed tonight, in Burlington. *BRING IT ON!*


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## ZYDECORICH (Nov 27, 2009)

be patience my pretties... all in good time... all in good time.


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## deadheadskier (Nov 27, 2009)

billski said:


> Snip:
> Just for fun, here's my prediction for snow accumulation in a few places. (Let's see how close I get)
> Burlington: 0.2 inches.
> St. Albans: 0.5 inches.
> ...



How does that measure up with Stowe / Bush totals though?  I've lived in Burlington for five years of my life.  While calling it home, I never really felt like Btowns accumalation was a good barometer for what was going on at elevation.


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## polski (Nov 28, 2009)

Sat a.m. early risers may want to check for updated spotter reports from NWS BTV; a few from this evening:

VERMONT

...CALEDONIA COUNTY...
   DANVILLE               2.0   900 PM 11/27   SPOTTER
   SHEFFIELD              2.0   745 PM 11/27   STATE POLICE

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
   EAST BROWNINGTON       6.8  1145 PM 11/27   1500 FOOT ELEVATION
   BARTON                 4.5  1000 PM 11/27   1500 FOOT ELEVATION

The first two are SW and due W of Burke, respectively. The latter two are NW of Burke, roughly halfway between there and Jay. Note differing times of observations.


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## JD (Nov 28, 2009)

0 inches as of 3:30 a.m. in Northfield....stowe cam show almost nothing there as well.  I wonder what happened at elevation?  Heading to J late morning unless I get reports that Stowe got "enough".


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## WoodCore (Nov 28, 2009)

Had about an inch here in Ludlow at 1800 feet elevation. Probably nothing down in town. Regardless the wind is *HOWLING* this morning.


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## KingM (Nov 28, 2009)

What a bummer. Not a flake on the ground here on the valley floor in the MRV. I was expecting to wake up to a couple of inches of white stuff.

I know that it snowed up on the mountain, which is the important thing, but I still wanted to see it down here, too.


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## Ski Diva (Nov 28, 2009)

WoodCore said:


> Had about an inch here in Ludlow at 1800 feet elevation. Probably nothing down in town. Regardless the wind is *HOWLING* this morning.



I live about 4 miles north of Ludlow. No snow here, either. But we do have a tree down in our yard.


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## Euler (Nov 28, 2009)

*No snow in Jacksonville*

No snow in Jacksonville, VT...about 25 minutes south of Mt. Snow.  The Mt. Snow webcam shows a dusting on the mountain,


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## polski (Nov 28, 2009)

Judging from that Intellicast radar from p2, I suspect what happened was the low wound up hugging the Maine coast -- it now looks to be over the very easternmost tip of Downeast -- instead of looping inland. Thus the axis of upslope snow has shifted east. When I went to bed around 2 a.m. (no dawn patrol for me, ya see) the Green Mtn spine was still getting lit up but now it looks done there, while N NH (also Burke, possibly Jay) and NW ME are still getting it.

A few quick excerpts from NWS spotter reports:


```
NEW HAMPSHIRE

...CARROLL COUNTY...
   CRAWFORD NOTCH        10.0   820 PM 11/27

...COOS COUNTY...
   JEFFERSON             14.5   743 AM 11/28
   RANDOLF               11.5   737 AM 11/28
   PINKHAM NOTCH          5.0   821 PM 11/27
   PINKHAM NOTCH SCENIC   4.0   732 AM 11/28   COOP

VERMONT

...CALEDONIA COUNTY...
   WALDEN                11.0   646 AM 11/28   2250 FT ELEVATION
   DANVILLE               4.0   545 AM 11/28
   SHEFFIELD              2.0   745 PM 11/27   STATE POLICE

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
   JAY                   10.0   548 AM 11/28   RT 105
   EAST BROWNINGTON       6.8  1145 PM 11/27   1500 FOOT ELEVATION
   BARTON                 4.5  1000 PM 11/27   1500 FOOT ELEVATION

...RUTLAND COUNTY...
   MENDON                 4.0   549 AM 11/28   RT 4

...WINDSOR COUNTY...
   WESTON                 4.0   550 AM 11/28   RT 100
```

Also the MRG webcam shows an unskinnable dusting at the base but whiter higher up. And people climbing.


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## polski (Nov 28, 2009)

via Twitter



> *bretton_woods* 14-18" reported from the guys on the hill! Learning Ctr Quad w/3 trails now & maybe more in the near future?  http://ow.ly/i/9xr
> 
> *jaypeakresort* 7-8" reported at the base by staff this morning. Snowing heavily at 7:15am.
> 
> ...



Me: If you want stoke, click that BW link


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## polski (Nov 28, 2009)

Stowe website reports 6-18" with 12" at the Mansfield Stake. (18" in drifts or ??). Snowmaking on Upper Lord & Ridgeview so far.

Smuggs website reports 10-12" up top

no updates from Cannon yet but judging by BW report and radar that's looking like a sweet spot

thirdhand report via TGR of 12+ atop MRG and skiable 2/3 of the way down. Vermont-oriented mags bemoaning epic forecast fail but I'm not sure anyone was forecasting much snow at mountain bases, only higher up.


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## polski (Nov 28, 2009)

A few updates: @jaypeakresort reporting 12-16 atop Montrealer, @skiwildcat 6" at 2000' and 12-18 summit w high winds creating rime ice. Also someone on TGR climbed Smuggs and said it was mostly wind-scoured, with some drifts to hit. Lot of gusts to 50+ being reported across the region.

and now first earned-turn reports coming in to SKIVT-L - Stowe: deep/heavy snow at top, skiable down to parking lot; Bolton Valley 6" at base and a foot+ up top. Between water content and wind-loading it sounds like a very dense snow, which raises my confidence in trying brand new midfats on it ... doesn't sound like hitting rocks is much of a problem.


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## WJenness (Nov 28, 2009)

Sugarloaf reporting over a foot at the top of the SQ, with a 'big announcement' coming soon.

Are we looking at another area opening up?

-w


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## psyflyer (Nov 28, 2009)

On Burke Mt.  lower slopes we ended up with a lowly 3-4 inches, and it looks like up top at least double that.  Temperatures played a factor in that they were higher than expected and affected the overall quality and depth of snow.  Either way a fun day sledding around.  Looking forward to the next one.


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## polski (Nov 28, 2009)

> *@bretton_woods* is now open from the Top o'Quad restaurant! Official trail count is 5, but all trails below that point are open!



I just called and lift tix tomorrow will be $39 adult/$30 teen&junior

and Sugarloaf just announced it's opening tomorrow. No time to check details because I'm heading north now.


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## billski (Nov 28, 2009)

polski said:


> A few updates: @jaypeakresort reporting 12-16 atop Montrealer, @skiwildcat 6" at 2000' and 12-18 summit w high winds creating rime ice. Also someone on TGR climbed Smuggs and said it was mostly wind-scoured, with some drifts to hit. Lot of gusts to 50+ being reported across the region.
> 
> and now first earned-turn reports coming in to SKIVT-L - Stowe: deep/heavy snow at top, skiable down to parking lot; Bolton Valley 6" at base and a foot+ up top. Between water content and wind-loading it sounds like a very dense snow, which raises my confidence in trying brand new midfats on it ... doesn't sound like hitting rocks is much of a problem.



Noontime update from Stowe.  Being called a windstorm in the valley.  Many trees down, roads blocked, power outages being called in.  Here is a noontime photo:


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## riverc0il (Nov 28, 2009)

12-18" at Cannon. Holy Crap!! Paulie's skied the best today that it will probably ski all season.


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