# Current Arctic Pattern: Possible Relaxation and Storm on 1/4



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 28, 2017)

It's damn cold out there. Arctic air coming straight from north of Baffin Island is the currently locked in thanks to a +NAO and a variety of Pacific indices. The duration and intensity of the arctic cold is rather unprecedented and an atmospheric anomaly when compared to other cold snaps. Long story short, this cold will be tough to remove. It is also suppressing the various clipper systems rolling through to our south. For the time being, it will be cold, windy and dry.

In a week, however, this arctic regime will move out or relax a little, and due to the extreme nature of what we are under, the atmosphere will "freak out" a little. This type of atmospheric shakeup is being shown on the models and indexes in the form of a major winter storm. All models (GFS, EURO, CMC) are showing a huge storm forming somewhere along the east coast. Will it be out to sea? Will it hug the coast and dump on us? Will it cut inland and deliver a rainstorm? These details we do not know yet.

What we do know is that the arctic regime will relax a little around 1/4, and a subsequent major storm will form. This is a given, now it is time to see where it goes.

Here is the current GFS. 





It shows our best case scenario. There is widespead model support for this outcome, but we are a week out. As most of us know, this scenario will move around. Someone, somewhere will get nailed. Hopefully its New England, and not Newfoundland or Cleveland.

Time for an exciting week of model watching!


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 28, 2017)

The storm will be a juicy Gulf slow that splits into two parts. We are looking for the developing storm to split earlier rather than later. Once the split occurs, the low will race north and develop over the gulf stream. An early split entails the storm being closer to the coast: i.e more snow.


----------



## bdfreetuna (Dec 28, 2017)

Saw this pop up on GFS too. Always exciting to see those purples and reds.


----------



## Rowsdower (Dec 28, 2017)

Could be. It could also stay cold and dry for the next two weeks per the latest GFS run.


----------



## Glenn (Dec 29, 2017)

I get nervous when it looks this good, this far out. 

Regardless, will be fun to keep an eye on! 

I called my "neighbor" (he's about a mile away) and snowmobiling buddy yesterday up in VT. We chatted about the cold and he was calling for a January thaw based on how cold it is in December. This guy is a lifelong Vermonter, so he's seen a winter or two in his 70+ years.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 29, 2017)

Storm keeps on showing up, but much farther east. The mid level evolution shows that today's solutions are not far from a hit, and small H5 improvements would lead to a much faster phase that would pull the storm West. The model windshield wiper continues. The biblical hit of 12z yesterday is predictably gone, but a major storm threat still looms. 

Most importantly a storm is still being shown and is within reasonable distance of trending back in west. For day 6, that's reasonable enough to keep eyes perked up.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 30, 2017)

Here comes the west trend. Absolute bombs on guidance too. Ensemble members are dropping below an unheard of 950mb SLP. That would be a record for an extratropical cyclone in this region.


----------



## Rowsdower (Dec 30, 2017)

So far only seeing it on CFS, waiting for GFS to update. 

But yeah, damn its like a freight train the next two weeks. Several smaller systems and then one big nuke at the end. Problem is all that action is loaded into 5-7+ days out so still a lot of uncertainty.


----------



## Glenn (Dec 30, 2017)

Any links to GFS or Euro models at this point?


----------



## Quietman (Dec 30, 2017)

GFS 18z run is looking good, but this will change many times.  We can only hope.

http://coolwx.com/ptype/


----------



## Glenn (Dec 31, 2017)

Excellent! Thanks for posting.


----------



## lerops (Jan 2, 2018)

Happy new year all! Anybody got updates on this?


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## ctenidae (Jan 2, 2018)

Looks like Maine and CT get hit, and southern VT and NH. Don't like the big green blob that runs through on the 9th, though.
NWS just moved us from 1-3 to 2-4 inches, seems the models are trending towards that going up some more.


----------



## Glenn (Jan 3, 2018)

Things are looking better today. It appears to be tracking further inland. Curious to see what the next model runs show.


----------



## Glenn (Jan 3, 2018)

Winter Storm Warning just issued for SoVT.


----------



## andrec10 (Jan 3, 2018)

Keep moving west!


----------



## Ol Dirty Noodle (Jan 4, 2018)

It’s snowing pretty hard on LI 2-3” in 4 hours so far, how’s the north fairing???


----------



## Smellytele (Jan 4, 2018)

Looking like more snow on Monday/Monday night 1/8 as well.


----------



## Ol Dirty Noodle (Jan 4, 2018)

From the top of Times Square.... getting the fuck outta here soon, might hit mountain creek if the lifts are running wind is 30-50mph right now


----------



## benski (Jan 4, 2018)

Ol Dirty Noodle said:


> From the top of Times Square.... getting the fuck outta here soon, might hit mountain creek if the lifts are running wind is 30-50mph right now



This looks like a dystopian sci fi movie.


----------



## gladerider (Jan 4, 2018)

almost 6" here in NNJ


----------



## Ol Dirty Noodle (Jan 4, 2018)

6-8” here on the island


----------



## Glenn (Jan 4, 2018)

Snowing pretty hard in the flatlands! Happy it shifted west and well deliver somewhat in ski country.


----------



## Rowsdower (Jan 5, 2018)

Next week looks about it before a major January thaw. Lets hope February delivers the goods!


----------



## bdfreetuna (Jan 5, 2018)

Rowsdower said:


> Next week looks about it before a major January thaw. Lets hope February delivers the goods!



Pretty dire statement for January 5th.


----------



## gladerider (Jan 5, 2018)

josh fox thinks we may get some rain before the MLK weekend. that would suck.


----------



## Ol Dirty Noodle (Jan 5, 2018)

gladerider said:


> josh fox thinks we may get some rain before the MLK weekend. that would suck.



I heard the same, trying to get to VT or ME for MLK weekend seeing as the Catskills will probably be washed out


----------



## Rowsdower (Jan 5, 2018)

There's a chance VT/NH get the goods MLK weekend but its really close right now.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 6, 2018)

gladerider said:


> josh fox thinks we may get some rain before the MLK weekend. that would suck.



He has that yesterday because it popped up on the models yesterday.    I mean, sure I mentioned I was worried about it too now that that rain's there, but I'm really surprised he ran with it given it was the very first model run to show it.  

Just looked and it's still there on the 00z run too, but at least it snows nicely Saturday evening into Sunday morning now, which wasn't there before, but the point is, this could (and probably will) change model-run-to-model-run for a few days.


----------



## Glenn (Jan 6, 2018)

It's cold today. Saw -24F on the weather station in SoVT today.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Jan 6, 2018)

This deep snowpack will do a work in keeping a warm front south of NNE in a potential rainer, but if next weekend comes in as amped as currently modeled, New England, save for possibly Northern Vermont, will get warm sectored and see temps spike.


----------



## Glenn (Jan 7, 2018)

Holding steady at -14F just north of Bratt this AM. Thankfully, no wind to speak of here. I'm sure that's a different story north west of here in the Greens.


----------



## moresnow (Jan 7, 2018)

podunk77 said:


> Anyone have early insight into when the rain will start on Friday, Jan. 12th?  I'm trying to decide between a day trip on Thursday and a 2-day overnight (Th/F).


Probably between Thursday and Saturday.

We are still 5 days out. No one is going to be able to tell you exactly when it will start or end. And that all depends on where you are going to be.

Welcome to weather 101.

Sent from my Pixel XL using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## bdfreetuna (Jan 7, 2018)

Might transition to snow with a whallop on the back end.


----------



## gladerider (Jan 7, 2018)

i think we will have a better idea as to what type of precip we will get by tuesday's model runs


----------



## bigbog (Jan 8, 2018)

Hopefully will stay cold enough in the western mtns, up here, to evade an ice show....


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 8, 2018)

gladerider said:


> i think we will have a better idea as to what type of precip we will get by tuesday's model runs




This is likely going to be so razor edge thin that I'm not sure we'll know what's what even on Friday.   That said, generalizing, from the looks of things, the further northwest the better.  I'm thinking Whiteface and Jay Peak might fare the best (or least worst) if all goes well. Would avoid Pokes, Cats, NH given the current data.  Given the look of this system, I'm planning on heading for Whiteface and crossing my fingers.  It will either be epic or horrendous,  I dont think there will be middle ground with this IMO.


----------



## Glenn (Jan 8, 2018)

NWS Albany was slightly hinting at some snow Saturday north of I-90. But maybe I'm being a bit over optimistic.


----------



## Rowsdower (Jan 10, 2018)

Nasty pattern setting up for the rest of January. Lots of rain, blasts of warm air between freezes. Hopefully February delivers the goods.


----------



## bigbog (Jan 11, 2018)

bigbog said:


> Hopefully will stay cold enough in the western mtns, up here, to evade an ice show....



HA, evade the ice show huh....what a disaster this weekend looks like...


----------



## NYDB (Jan 11, 2018)

Rowsdower said:


> Nasty pattern setting up for the rest of January. Lots of rain, blasts of warm air between freezes. Hopefully February delivers the goods.



where do you see this?  

I see it turning colder again after this mess with a couple of snow chances later this week and then after the weekend.


----------



## John W (Jan 23, 2018)

I hate that the weather has been so effing bad that no one will even talk about it.  Almost 60 in nyc today. Downpours and rain all over.  Almost a two foot storm a couple of weeks ago on LongIsland.  I come here to see people talk about weather and the potential for powderstashes in the Northeast and instead its crickets.. I am sad.  Hope you all are well though..


----------



## Rowsdower (Jan 23, 2018)

I mean, thats NE skiing. It happens.

Hopefully the pattern changes through the beginning of February. Looks like the models are waffling back and forth a bit but seem to be suggesting a colder, more productive pattern setting in around the first week of February.


----------



## andrec10 (Jan 23, 2018)

Its skiing in the Northeast!


----------



## NYDB (Jan 31, 2018)

2/4-2/5 perhaps?


----------



## Glenn (Jan 31, 2018)

They were hinting at this watching Weather Underground at the gym yesterday. The areas really need some natural snow. Would be a bonus to have it on one of the least busiest days of the season....Super Bowl Sunday.


----------



## hammer (Jan 31, 2018)

Glenn said:


> They were hinting at this watching Weather Underground at the gym yesterday. The areas really need some natural snow. Would be a bonus to have it on one of the least busiest days of the season....Super Bowl Sunday.


If a ski area offers a special lift ticket deal, then Superbowl Sunday can be one of the _busiest _days of the season...

Went to Gunstock on Superbowl Sunday a few years ago and it was packed, worse than a holiday week.  They were offering lift ticket specials and everybody was getting in a quick day of skiing before heading home for the game.


----------



## Glenn (Jan 31, 2018)

We tend to go later on Super Bowl Sunday. Let people get their early AM runs in and then head home. I like that this is a North East focused Super Bowl...should mean more "local" eyeballs watching TV and less skis on the slopes.


----------



## MommaBear (Jan 31, 2018)

Glenn said:


> We tend to go later on Super Bowl Sunday. Let people get their early AM runs in and then head home. I like that this is a North East focused Super Bowl...should mean more "local" eyeballs watching TV and less skis on the slopes.



We usually stick around until later in the day skiing - Mt Snow typically empties by noon.  End up listening to the start of the game en route home.  With the snow predicted, I'm trying to convince the other half to take Monday off and just stay and ski both days.  I'm sure we can find a bar or a friendly neighbor to let us watch the game with them.


----------



## Glenn (Feb 1, 2018)

I think that's a solid plan! May be a little fresh snow to ski in both days as well.


----------

