# February 8th until.....uhhh.....whenever



## BenedictGomez (Feb 5, 2015)

Been watching this one for a while, and it's still there 3 days out.  

As modeled it's a relatively light snow, but it lasts forever, so it adds up.



*Here it is dropping out of Canada early Sunday....*








*And here it is 6 hours later.....*







*And then 6 hours after that.......*





*
Then yet another six hours after that.....*






*Then.....well......*I'm not going to post them all, but you get the picture. 
 Basically it starts snowing and doesn't stop for a really long time.


The net result would be something that looks like this early on Tuesday....


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 5, 2015)

Most professional mets I've seen are poo-pooing this idea, though not with any real scientific reason, but simply because this sortof thing doesn't really ever happen, which is ironically a somewhat unscientific opinion, IMO.


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## catsup948 (Feb 5, 2015)

Euro is also showing this but for not as long.   It would be nice for the GFS to stick with this and verify.  Ratios with this would be much higher than 10 to 1!  It's cold out there.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 5, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> *Euro is also showing this but for not as long.*   It would be nice for the GFS to stick with this and verify.  Ratios with this would be much higher than 10 to 1!  It's cold out there.  



Haven't looked yet this morning, but every model was completely different last night, showing snow in some form, but with vastly different solutions, which is a bit odd for only 3.5 days out.   I'm hoping that's good sign in that it maybe it's very complex and not easily digestible (yeah, I'll go with that logic, lol).


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## C-Rex (Feb 5, 2015)

I'm heading up to a friends house in Springfield, VT tonight and staying all weekend.  Might even get snowed in until Monday night or Tuesday.  Darn.  20 min to Okemo, 20 to Magic, and 40 to Killington/Pico.  I'm just a tad excited.


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## catsup948 (Feb 5, 2015)

Interesting to see if some of the models start to agree on something at 12z.


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## drjeff (Feb 5, 2015)

Also interesting to see what the models do behind this event too.  Starting to be some met geek rumblings of something that could rival the epic Valentines Day storm 5 years or so ago....

Love this weather pattern were in!


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## catsup948 (Feb 5, 2015)

Next week could be very exciting.  GFS has a smaller event on Thursday too.


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## WJenness (Feb 5, 2015)

Taking next week off to ski...  :beer:


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## catsup948 (Feb 5, 2015)

drjeff said:


> Also interesting to see what the models do behind this event too.  Starting to be some met geek rumblings of something that could rival the epic Valentines Day storm 5 years or so ago....
> 
> Love this weather pattern were in!



Big Rainer on the coastal plain that storm was! That would be a roof collapser right now.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 5, 2015)

12Z GFS snowfall depiction is out...   

Pretty similar to 00z, moved perhaps 15 miles north.


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## moresnow (Feb 5, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> 12Z GFS snowfall depiction is out...
> 
> Pretty similar to 00z, moved perhaps 15 miles north.



North is good. 

Less shoveling. More skiing.


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## Not Sure (Feb 5, 2015)

That Low is making me nervous , can't deal with another rain/ ice event.
2" boiler plate on my road.


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## ss20 (Feb 5, 2015)

Love this guy.

[video]http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/train-of-storms-to-bring-unrel/41783093[/video]


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 5, 2015)

The first, first call map I've seen....


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## Rowsdower (Feb 5, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> The first, first call map I've seen....



Geez, did that move north, or what?

That's a lot of warm air...


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## TropicTundR (Feb 5, 2015)

ss20 said:


> Love this guy.
> 
> [video]http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/train-of-storms-to-bring-unrel/41783093[/video]



Seriously, his name is Alex Sosnowski!, or is this a gag.  I think he really dislikes skiers and sees this opportunity to mooch their emotions by predictng more pow pow (I kid).


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 5, 2015)

00z NAM pooped the bed. Pay no mind.


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## catsup948 (Feb 6, 2015)

The NAM is poop!


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## ScottySkis (Feb 6, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> The NAM is poop!



N= no snow?


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## catsup948 (Feb 6, 2015)

No I'm saying the NAM at this range is poop.  Other models look good for this one.  Good hit for Berkshires up into the southern greens.


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## Rowsdower (Feb 6, 2015)

Planning a three day trip to the Catskills next weekend anyway.


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## WJenness (Feb 6, 2015)

Matt Noyes checks in with a forecast:

http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_englan...and-but-will-not-deal-snow-evenly-to-all.html


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## billski (Feb 6, 2015)

Word to the wise.  Go skiing on Sunday.  Forget your laptop.  Call in on Monday, announce you are sheltering in place.  Ski your brains out.  Tuesday, repeat.


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## VTKilarney (Feb 6, 2015)

From the Eye on the Sky forecasters in St. Johnsbury.


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## bdfreetuna (Feb 6, 2015)

shaping up nice!


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## catsup948 (Feb 7, 2015)

Yay!


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## billski (Feb 7, 2015)

Snowing here in the flatlands.

check out this prognostication.
Going to Magic?   Mandatory packing list:  Snow tires, big ass shovel, snow shoes to navigate to the vehicle, snorkel.  Have fun!


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## j law (Feb 7, 2015)

Looks like glades at Gore will be great too!


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## billski (Feb 7, 2015)

Damn!  
ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

I return from business on Thursday, then all my vouchers are blacked out.  I may actually have to cave and buy market rate some place.
Unless you've got a deal I can't refuse!

bt


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## billski (Feb 7, 2015)

off the charts boston.   Awesome looking for So. VT.


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## billski (Feb 7, 2015)

gfs


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## billski (Feb 7, 2015)

check this one out.  Now use a ratio of 1:14 to 1:20 which is the guidance I've heard.  DO DA MATH!


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## billski (Feb 7, 2015)




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## drjeff (Feb 7, 2015)

If this pans out, or even "under performs" with "only" a foot in So VT, it will REALLY be approaching epic conditions here!  Amazing soft snow with some powder stashes in the trees that I found today that were easily knee deep on my 6' 3" frame! If the close to 2 feet falls that they're calling for..... Wow!!  I've been an East Coast skier for 36 years now.  And maybe only once or twice over that time frame can I remember it being this good on the East Coast - use up your sick days/personal time in the next week or so (or hopefully with this weather pattern longer) now!!


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## billski (Feb 7, 2015)

Life is good.  The world is at equilibrium.  This is payback for all those crappy winter months from years gone by.  I just hope I don't get fired


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## j law (Feb 7, 2015)

Tuesday looks like the day of the year so far... Too bad I'll be in an office, ARGH!


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## gladerider (Feb 7, 2015)

how did NAM perform in the last two storms?


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## mriceyman (Feb 8, 2015)

And of course i picked last year to have my first kid.. O well maybe in 8 years or so conditions will be this good again


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## ScottySkis (Feb 8, 2015)

Sleet now in Middletown NY Orange County . here it change to show tonight another fun commute in for Monday if they don't cancel work.


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## VTKilarney (Feb 8, 2015)

Sleet in northeastern Vermont.  


.


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## andrec10 (Feb 8, 2015)

Snow in Hyde Park...


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## 180 (Feb 8, 2015)

snow at Hunter, a good dusting so far


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 8, 2015)

Just got home from n.VT and checking in on this.  Radar doesnt look as impressive as the models depicted, but we're early innings still.   Conditions are already positively amazing out there so whatever we get is gravy IMO.  Seems like every few days it's 6" here, 8" there, a foot there, really shaping up to be a great season.


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 8, 2015)

Drove from Lyndonville to Barre around noon. Snowing in L'Ville turned to sleet around Cabot/Marshfield. Left Barre around 3:30 headed to Burlington and the sleet had turned to freezing mist/rain. And it was 14 degrees. Freezing rain all the way to B'ton. The temp even dropped on the west side of the Green Mtns to 9 degrees! Roads got pretty slick. Still freezing rain when I left there at 6:45. The freezing rain turned back to snow just east of Waterbury. I think I went through an entire gallon of de-icing windshield wash. I had to give the windshield a spritz every 30-40 seconds to make sure I could see. Some people must have run out because there were several cars on the side of I-89 scraping their windshields.
Hopefully it stayed sleet and snow in the mtns. The sleet may have kept totals down a bit.


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## thetrailboss (Feb 8, 2015)

Enjoy it guys.  This appears to be your year.  We have a bad ridge sitting over us.  Temps this week are going to be warm again...60's down in the valley and 30's-40's up high.  No real snow it appears.  It is killing the PC areas.  LCC has not cracked the 200" mark yet.


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## catsup948 (Feb 8, 2015)

We're getting a nice flow here.  Moderate to heavy snow for a while now.  I bet we get a foot here and a bit more in the Berks and Southern Greens.  7 hour drive home from Sugarloaf today!


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## 4aprice (Feb 8, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Just got home from n.VT and checking in on this.  Radar doesnt look as impressive as the models depicted, but we're early innings still.   Conditions are already positively amazing out there so whatever we get is gravy IMO.  Seems like every few days it's 6" here, 8" there, a foot there, really shaping up to be a great season.



Boy BG I don't know what time you came through, but my drive from Pico/Killington to NNJ was anything but a breeze.  Snow in the morning had ebbed but as we left it was really picking up again.  4/149/Northway all snow covered, slow and snowing, hard burst in Albany down past Catskills where it went above freezing.   I think they get significant snow tonight.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 8, 2015)

4aprice said:


> *Boy BG I don't know what time you came through, but my drive from Pico/Killington to NNJ was anything but a breeze.*  Snow in the morning had ebbed but as we left it was really picking up again.  4/149/Northway all snow covered, slow and snowing, hard burst in Albany down past Catskills where it went above freezing.   I think they get significant snow tonight.



I'd been monitoring the models/radar and made the call to leave EARLY today given s.VT through the Cats looked to be bullseye. That and the fact that Vermont's roads are an abomination on a good day.  I'm pretty sure the Vermont road department's motto is, _"Deal With It"_.  We were on the road by 9:30am.   I just wanted to be south of the Cats by 2pm to stay well ahead of the worst of it. 

 That decision made the drive simple other than Vermont, which was slow and annoying from St. Albans all the way down to the NY State line.  Once you hit that NY state line the road immediately (literally) goes from snow & ice covered to, completely clear and clean black top.


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## Tin (Feb 9, 2015)

Berkshire got 8" last night and looking like 6-8" more today. Going to be awesome tomorrow. Hopefully more of the snakes are covered up.


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## gladerider (Feb 9, 2015)

How is NVT doing so far?  Any report would be appreciated.  Driving up Thursday evening for a few days.


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 9, 2015)

Has anyone seen an explanation for the freezing mist/drizzle that we are still getting here in N Vermont? It doesn't seem to be creating a crust layer but it glazes any solid surface it touches.
I haven't seen any atmospheric temp profiles to see were a warm layer may be. It is very strange. Even if there is a warm layer, where is that warm air even coming from? The Atlantic?


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## Puck it (Feb 9, 2015)

from_the_NEK said:


> Has anyone seen an explanation for the freezing mist/drizzle that we are still getting here in N Vermont? It doesn't seem to be creating a crust layer either but it glazes any solid surface it touches.
> I haven't seen any atmospheric temp profiles to see were a warm layer may be. It is very strange. Even if there is a warm layer, where is that warm air even coming from? The Atlantic?



It was wierd drivnig in it yesterday coming down 295 in Portland.  It was 6F and freezing rain.  Very strange.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 9, 2015)

Puck it said:


> It was wierd drivnig in it yesterday coming down 295 in Portland.  It was 6F and freezing rain.  Very strange.



Mother Nature using Cannon snowguns yesterday.  It was about 5F at the summit of MRG yesterday and while it wasn't quite freezing rain, it was a high water content snow that glazed your goggles.


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## gmcunni (Feb 9, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> while it wasn't quite freezing rain, it was a high water content snow that glazed your goggles.



same at Berkshire East yesterday afternoon.


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## xwhaler (Feb 9, 2015)

Strange. At Sugarloaf I detected no water at all from the snow that was falling from the sky. It was so cold you could see the individual crystals. Could blow on the car windshield and snow would disappear.


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## dlague (Feb 9, 2015)

Concord NH area is getting significant snow.  When we got back from Sugarloaf where was about 5-6 inches in our driveway and through the evening is was falling fast with crystal like snow that  did not accumulate that quickly but dropped like lead balloons even though it was like 5-6F.  Snowing pretty good in Plymouth but tiny flakes.

Southern NH, VT and MA seem to ge getting the Jackpot on this one which is great for Magic on Saturday.


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## wa-loaf (Feb 9, 2015)

xwhaler said:


> Strange. At Sugarloaf I detected no water at all from the snow that was falling from the sky. It was so cold you could see the individual crystals. Could blow on the car windshield and snow would disappear.



There was about 3-4 inches of that on my car at 2pm when I was heading out from the Summit. It softened up the skiing a little, but did cause some issues where it covered up icy spots! I hit the sleet around Portland too. Traffic was moving along pretty well considering the conditions.

Still coming down hard here outside of 495.


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## dlague (Feb 9, 2015)

wa-loaf said:


> There was about 3-4 inches of that on my car at 2pm when I was heading out from the Summit. It softened up the skiing a little, but did cause some issues where it covered up icy spots! I hit the sleet around Portland too. Traffic was moving along pretty well considering the conditions.
> 
> Still coming down hard here outside of 495.



Ya we experienced sleet in Southern ME on the 95 but we were still doing 75+ most of the way.  It was weird - light traffic.


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## Smellytele (Feb 9, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> Mother Nature using Cannon snowguns yesterday.  It was about 5F at the summit of MRG yesterday and while it wasn't quite freezing rain, it was a high water content snow that glazed your goggles.


Same thing at Stowe yesterday. It looked like snow until it hit your goggles then it would melt then freeze immediately. At around 10:30 changed to snow and then back to that crap around 2. It didn't do this on clothing just the goggles. The drive home around 4 was the same way on the windshield on and off.


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## twinplanx (Feb 9, 2015)

from_the_NEK said:


> Has anyone seen an explanation for the freezing mist/drizzle that we are still getting here in N Vermont? It doesn't seem to be creating a crust layer but it glazes any solid surface it touches.
> I haven't seen any atmospheric temp profiles to see were a warm layer may be. It is very strange. Even if there is a warm layer, where is that warm air even coming from? The Atlantic?


Chem-trails.


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 9, 2015)

I thought I remembered something about super cooled water droplets from a class back in my college days.

It is all laid out here:
The conditions have to be perfect for this to happen.

https://www.facebook.com/EyeOnTheSky


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## billski (Feb 9, 2015)

Albany





Grey Maine


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## fbrissette (Feb 9, 2015)

Smellytele said:


> Same thing at Stowe yesterday. It looked like snow until it hit your goggles then it would melt then freeze immediately. At around 10:30 changed to snow and then back to that crap around 2. It didn't do this on clothing just the goggles. The drive home around 4 was the same way on the windshield on and off.



None of this at Jay at least till 14h30.


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## catsup948 (Feb 9, 2015)

What a nice storm for here.  We didn't get the totals Boston is getting but we got another 12 inches with a little more lingering tonight.  Skiing was fantastic today at Berkshire East.


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## dlague (Feb 9, 2015)

Went to shovel of deck and this snow is not fluffy it packed down and froze so I left it.  Not ice but firm here in Concord.


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## Nick (Feb 9, 2015)

We got over a foot here I'm central ma. My back is pretty sore from shoveling.


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## Edd (Feb 10, 2015)

from_the_NEK said:


> Drove from Lyndonville to Barre around noon. Snowing in L'Ville turned to sleet around Cabot/Marshfield. Left Barre around 3:30 headed to Burlington and the sleet had turned to freezing mist/rain. And it was 14 degrees. Freezing rain all the way to B'ton. The temp even dropped on the west side of the Green Mtns to 9 degrees! Roads got pretty slick. Still freezing rain when I left there at 6:45. The freezing rain turned back to snow just east of Waterbury. I think I went through an entire gallon of de-icing windshield wash. I had to give the windshield a spritz every 30-40 seconds to make sure I could see. Some people must have run out because there were several cars on the side of I-89 scraping their windshields.
> Hopefully it stayed sleet and snow in the mtns. The sleet may have kept totals down a bit.



Drove to Stowe from seacoast NH on Sunday. Hit the freezing rain soon after crossing the border. It was 15 degrees out. I went through a lot of wiper fluid. Skiing Monday I had the same experience as another poster with freezing rain on the goggles but it wasn't sticking to my clothes at all. It drove us inside for awhile because we simply couldn't see and the light was flat to begin with. Pretty decent conditions but we didn't catch the fresh snow we were hoping for.


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