# 12/21 Storm Speculation



## lstone84 (Dec 14, 2014)

Euro showing a bomb next weekend:




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## flightschool (Dec 14, 2014)

Wow, lets hope some cold air returns.  A good cold storm could make for some amazing early season skiing up north.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 14, 2014)

Catskills love?


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## lstone84 (Dec 14, 2014)

Way too early to tell a week away. The Euro has been good with storms this year (and it's just the best medium range model in general), so when it shows a big storm, even a week out, it's worth careful watching. This is in no way a slam dunk, but the Euro showing a big storm is better than it showing nothing. 


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## catsup948 (Dec 14, 2014)

Let's will this storm to dump on Magic.  It would vastly help their snowmaking budget!


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 14, 2014)

Note the block over Greenland and the possibility of a -NAO...


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## catsup948 (Dec 14, 2014)

Week away on this.  EURO was all over the first two storms a week out.  Let's keep up this trend please.


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## Tin (Dec 15, 2014)

Starting to see it pop up Saturday night - Sunday.


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## lstone84 (Dec 15, 2014)

And just like that it's out to sea


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## hammer (Dec 15, 2014)

Can we have the title changed to "21 December Storm Speculation Thread"?

Hope the timing works out OK, going to be a potential mess traffic-wise with the last minute Christmas stuff going on.  Bring it on...


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## moresnow (Dec 15, 2014)

hammer said:


> Can we have the title changed to "21 December Storm Speculation Thread"?



+1


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## Puck it (Dec 15, 2014)

Going to be up north for 12/19 -21 with the wife.   Might have to go back up for Monday.


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## JDMRoma (Dec 15, 2014)

Puck it said:


> Going to be up north for 12/19 -21 with the wife.   Might have to go back up for Monday.



I still have 2 Vacation days to burn if it turns out to be a Dumping !


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## Puck it (Dec 15, 2014)

JDMRoma said:


> I still have 2 Vacation days to burn if it turns out to be a Dumping !


  I am suppose to be on shutdwon for 12/21- 1/5 anyways.  Only going to work when I need to for escalations.


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 15, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> And just like that it's out to seaView attachment 14641
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Run to run changes. Check the ensembles and the mean still says big storm.


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## catsup948 (Dec 15, 2014)

hammer said:


> Can we have the title changed to "21 December Storm Speculation Thread"?
> 
> Hope the timing works out OK, going to be a potential mess traffic-wise with the last minute Christmas stuff going on.  Bring it on...



Give this a couple more days of model runs.  If it's crushing Berkshire East as modeled last night on Thursday I'll start a new thread!


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## Abubob (Dec 15, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Note the block over Greenland and the possibility of a -NAO...



Yes.


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## greenmonsterhungery (Dec 15, 2014)

Is there room for one more


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## greenmonsterhungery (Dec 15, 2014)

Hello I have enough cash just got my Christmas Bonus hard work pays off


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## greenmonsterhungery (Dec 15, 2014)

Will just let me know before I spend 3,500 I don't have kids no girlfriend or boyfriend.


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## greenmonsterhungery (Dec 15, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> Way too early to tell a week away. The Euro has been good with storms this year (and it's just the best medium range model in general), so when it shows a big storm, even a week out, it's worth careful watching. This is in no way a slam dunk, but the Euro showing a big storm is better than it showing nothing.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


Are you busy later tonight?


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## skiberg (Dec 15, 2014)

Posted today by Joel Gratz @ OpenSnow

"right around Christmas day(plus or minus a day), the eastern two thirds of the country should return tocold air and snow. This means that the period between Christmas and New Yearsshould offer higher chances for cold air and powder days in the Rockies,including *Colorado* and*Utah*,and east toward *New England*."


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 15, 2014)

Good NW trend today. The EURO bucks the idea of a undercutter and brings back the storm.


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## deadheadskier (Dec 15, 2014)

greenmonsterhungery said:


> Will just let me know before I spend 3,500 I don't have kids no girlfriend or boyfriend.





greenmonsterhungery said:


> Are you busy later tonight?



Settle down tiger.

We don't allow the solicitation of prostitution on this site.


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## catsup948 (Dec 15, 2014)

This baby is worth tracking this far out.  Miller A.  Miller A's are great for interior southern new england.  Often a miss for nne and Rainer for the coastal plain.


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## Tin (Dec 15, 2014)

catsup948 said:


> This baby is worth tracking this far out.  Miller A.  Miller A's are great for interior southern new england.  Often a miss for nne and Rainer for the coastal plain.



Wouldn't mind trying out the new quad at Berkshire East if this thing comes around. Driving up to K last week that area of Mass seemed to get some snow out of the deal, is there any left?


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 15, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> G*ood NW trend today. The EURO bucks the idea of a undercutter and brings back the storm*.



Meh, I don't see that at all.   I look at that trend and hope it's not OTS in a few days.  

If anything, this looks better for the places in eastern New England where the mountains arent. As long as it doesnt KEEP this up it will be fine, but this trend this early might not be good.


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## catsup948 (Dec 15, 2014)

Tin said:


> Wouldn't mind trying out the new quad at Berkshire East if this thing comes around. Driving up to K last week that area of Mass seemed to get some snow out of the deal, is there any left?



Berkshire East got hammered with almost 2 inches of rain.  There are patches or natural snow on the mountain.  They haven't been able to make a lot of snow either.  Hopefully they will be able to fire up the guns end of the week.


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## Tin (Dec 15, 2014)

catsup948 said:


> Berkshire East got hammered with almost 2 inches of rain.  There are patches or natural snow on the mountain.  They haven't been able to make a lot of snow either.  Hopefully they will be able to fire up the guns end of the week.



Wow. Driving up last Wednesday it was interesting to see the difference between Springfield and the VT/Mass line. No snow versus 4-5". Figured they would have a but. Was also really snowing on the drive back and thought they were forecasted to get 3-6" that night.


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## billski (Dec 15, 2014)




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## billski (Dec 15, 2014)




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## catsup948 (Dec 15, 2014)

Northern New England will continue to get destroyed even as the pattern changes. Southern New England may not have enough cold to support snow until after Christmas.  Last storm was real ugly down here.


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 16, 2014)

If this storm doesn't pan out, I blame lstone for really dropping the ball on the creation of this thread :lol: Just posting a 200+ hour model run with little support kills all the Juju magic and Smoke and Mirrors that is required to get a storm up here :flame:


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## Tin (Dec 16, 2014)




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## lstone84 (Dec 16, 2014)

Haha I knew you guys would like that


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 16, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Meh, I don't see that at all.   I look at that trend and hope it's not OTS in a few days.



Sadly it looks like I was unfortunately right.  This thing is falling apart.  Not shocking given how far out we are.  Needs to "reappear" on the models by 00z or it's game, set, match.



Boston Bulldog said:


> If this storm doesn't pan out, I blame lstone for really dropping the ball on the creation of this thread.  *Just posting a 200+ hour model run with little support kills all the Juju magic* and Smoke and Mirrors that is required to get a storm up here



Which is precisely why nobody here creates "storm threads" for events that are 168, 182, 206 hours out, etc....., because it's  meteorologically dumb.  There's a long-range 2014/15 thread for a reason.


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 16, 2014)

It gonna RAIN!


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 16, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> It gonna RAIN!


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## Tin (Dec 16, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> It gonna RAIN!


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## skifree (Dec 16, 2014)

i agree with rain.             reverse mojo


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## ScottySkis (Dec 16, 2014)

No r word that worse then f bomb on this forum f the rain lol.


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## lstone84 (Dec 16, 2014)

Awwww Benny Gomez is mad again


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## lstone84 (Dec 16, 2014)

Benny Gomez says 'this is why we don't create storm threads 168 hours in advance' yet was more than happy to speculate about it himself...Benny G just can't resist chiming in when I post. Love it


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## lstone84 (Dec 16, 2014)

And I think 'no support' is a little inaccurate bulldog. All the mets I follow have been discussing the poss. of a storm for just as long. The upgraded GPS was showing it. 500mb was supporting a storm. Etc. The mets certainly know a lot more than anyone I've heard on here...myself included 


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 16, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> And I think 'no support' is a little inaccurate bulldog. All the mets I follow have been discussing the poss. of a storm for just as long. The upgraded GPS was showing it. 500mb was supporting a storm. Etc. The mets certainly know a lot more than anyone I've heard on here...myself included
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



I'm talking run to run continuity, for all models.


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## lstone84 (Dec 16, 2014)

Run to run within one individual model? Fair enough 


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## drjeff (Dec 17, 2014)

This weekends small event will help set the atmospheric "table" for what looks like a more plausible, sizeable event on/around Christmas Day.  If that one plays out, expect reports of record Christmas week crowds all across the Northeast. While while some here will bemoan the crowds, it would be a GREAT thing for the health of the ski industry and the communities surrounding the ski areas


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## lstone84 (Dec 17, 2014)

Except right now the xmas storm looks like a huge washout for all NE resorts 


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## drjeff (Dec 17, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> Except right now the xmas storm looks like a huge washout for all NE resorts
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



If you believe the 168hr models


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## andrec10 (Dec 17, 2014)

Thats a week away. Those models will change several times before then...


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## billski (Dec 17, 2014)

I'm kicking around getting  up to Wildcat or Saddleback Sun, Mon or Tuesday.  Just crossing my fingers on the niar.


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## Tin (Dec 17, 2014)

Looking good for Stowe and Smuggs the next few days.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 17, 2014)

Any white for the Catskills or Berks?


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## billski (Dec 17, 2014)

Tin, that map is a bit incongruous with the numbers.  The yellow is down along the Sugarbush-MRG highway, and the yellow dot is moreso towards JP.  But it's many, many hours from now.  Wish I could go Fri/Sat, or I would.


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## dlague (Dec 17, 2014)

I think we seem to be in a wet pattern missing colder temps by a few degrees and that pattern continues from the looks of it.  Blows chunks - starting to see grass again!


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## dlague (Dec 17, 2014)

Tin said:


> Looking good for Stowe and Smuggs the next few days.



Those paltry inches will not make up for the r&^n soaking and refreeze that will take place.


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 17, 2014)

Actually the Grinch storm, if it occurs, could kick off one epic stretch of weather. Sure, it's going to pour if current modeling pans out, but the storm has the potential be so strong that it would kick the atmosphere in the pants, so to speak.

It is actually going to help form a strong -NAO and +PNA, which dumps cold air into the east and forms storms that bomb off of Nantucket. I would willingly trade a screaming Sou'easter for weeks of snow. Think Jan 2011?

Extreme warm to cold pattern transitions need something extreme, and this could be it. Remember how KU's often usher in a warm pattern, this is the opposite of that.


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## Not Sure (Dec 17, 2014)

Another thread in order?
http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/to...to-impact-millions-in-midwest-east/ar-BBgVhts


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## catsup948 (Dec 17, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Actually the Grinch storm, if it occurs, could kick off one epic stretch of weather. Sure, it's going to pour if current modeling pans out, but the storm has the potential be so strong that it would kick the atmosphere in the pants, so to speak.
> 
> It is actually going to help form a strong -NAO and +PNA, which dumps cold air into the east and forms storms that bomb off of Nantucket. I would willingly trade a screaming Sou'easter for weeks of snow. Think Jan 2011?
> 
> Extreme warm to cold pattern transitions need something extreme, and this could be it. Remember how KU's often usher in a warm pattern, this is the opposite of that.



Well said.  Hopefully we get el nino loaded southern jet interacting with the cold northern jet.    Last year was brutal at times after the cutters with long stretches of bitter cold and no snow.  I want to ski god dammit not worry about freezing my arse off!  Snow!


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## Abubob (Dec 18, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Actually the Grinch storm, if it occurs, could kick off one epic stretch of weather. Sure, it's going to pour if current modeling pans out, but the storm has the potential be so strong that it would kick the atmosphere in the pants, so to speak.
> 
> It is actually going to help form a strong -NAO and +PNA, which dumps cold air into the east and forms storms that bomb off of Nantucket. I would willingly trade a screaming Sou'easter for weeks of snow. Think Jan 2011?
> 
> Extreme warm to cold pattern transitions need something extreme, and this could be it. Remember how KU's often usher in a warm pattern, this is the opposite of that.



Seems Joshua Fox agrees with you.

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/



> The trend toward a colder pattern, anchored mostly by the emergence of blocking across Alaska and the Yukon and a much looser Pacific jet remains on track around Dec 27-28. The new "colder" pattern could also be accompanied by more storminess as there remains indications of split flow in the jet. We should be able to keep this going through the early part of January as well so at least we have that.


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## billski (Dec 18, 2014)

The glass is half full guys.   We have a pretty good assemblage of base building so far.  A little rain to firm it down during one of the most expensive days of the year, followed by some serious dumpage will set us up to be way better than last January.  Remember how sucky last January was?  No complaints thus far.  Skis crossed...


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## mriceyman (Dec 18, 2014)

billski said:


> The glass is half full guys.   We have a pretty good assemblage of base building so far.  A little rain to firm it down during one of the most expensive days of the year, followed by some serious dumpage will set us up to be way better than last January.  Remember how sucky last January was?  No complaints thus far.  Skis crossed...



Just hope it doesnt rain too hard an lose the base.. Xmas eve rain followed by a storm say the 28th would be perfect for my jan 1-3 pico/killington trip


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## billski (Dec 18, 2014)

*here's the word from Tim Kelly, 12.18.14*


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## billski (Dec 20, 2014)

*Roger Hill checks in for the Christmas forecast*


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## ScottySkis (Dec 20, 2014)

Snow for Mass tonight any hills with running lift s like B East or any Jiminy getting it. Maybe worth a try of another hill besides Catamount and ma to add the Platty of ma on my list tomorrow?


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## VTKilarney (Dec 20, 2014)

billski said:


> We have a pretty good assemblage of base building so far.  A little rain to firm it down during one of the most expensive days of the year,


Based on what I skied on today, I don't think that we need a firmer base than what we already have.


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## vermonter44 (Dec 20, 2014)

VTKilarney said:


> Based on what I skied on today, I don't think that we need a firmer base than what we already have.



Where did you ski?


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## billski (Dec 20, 2014)

ScottySkis said:


> Snow for Mass tonight any hills with running lift s like B East or any Jiminy getting it. Maybe worth a try of another hill besides Catamount and ma to add the Platty of ma on my list tomorrow?


  No.  This is a coastal thing.  SE Mass and metro Boston.  That's it.  
Scotty, if you want freshies tomorrow, go to Yawgoo or Blue Hills!


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## VTKilarney (Dec 20, 2014)

vermonter44 said:


> Where did you ski?


Burke.  They've got a bullet proof base right now, especially on the lower half of the mountain.


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## hammer (Dec 21, 2014)

Had some flurries at Wachusett today.


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## mriceyman (Dec 21, 2014)

This thread needs to die.. Unfortunatly


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## Glenn (Dec 22, 2014)

VTKilarney said:


> Based on what I skied on today, I don't think that we need a firmer base than what we already have.



x2 Bases are firm enough. 

This is similar to what happened last year at this time. I remember skiing Christmas Eve day and it was bulletproof. Doubt I'll venture out Wednesday to ski.


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## catsup948 (Dec 22, 2014)

I wonder if anyone will open wednesday.  Ski in the upper 40s and rain.  Tomorrow is going to be yucky with major icing concerns for the mountains.  Please give us some snow soon!


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## Smellytele (Dec 22, 2014)

Not that this matters but skiing today was almost spring like snow and it was snowing.


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