# Another 09/10 Winter Forecast



## St. Bear (Oct 5, 2009)

I don't know what the difference is between this new winter forecast, and the one that came out a few months ago.  It's pretty much the same thing.  As we get closer to winter, it does seem like the models are supporting these forecasts.

I guess the more consensus among forecasters the better!


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## Johnskiismore (Oct 6, 2009)

I like those models!

Just moved into my new house, no snow blower, no shovel, no money to buy a beater 4X4 for plowing, and a pretty big driveway... northern New England will get slammed this winter!


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## Glenn (Oct 6, 2009)

Johnskiismore said:


> I like those models!
> 
> Just moved into my new house, no snow blower, no shovel, no money to buy a beater 4X4 for plowing, and a pretty big driveway... northern New England will get slammed this winter!



Thanks for helping out! :beer:


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## Johnskiismore (Oct 6, 2009)

Glenn said:


> Thanks for helping out! :beer:



You're welcome, I'll drink one or five to that!:beer:


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## ERJ-145CA (Oct 11, 2009)

I like that forecast, looks good for northwestern NJ.


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## wa-loaf (Oct 11, 2009)

Johnskiismore said:


> I like those models!
> 
> Just moved into my new house, no snow blower, no shovel, no money to buy a beater 4X4 for plowing, and a pretty big driveway... northern New England will get slammed this winter!



Don't put any snows on your car either ...


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## St. Bear (Nov 17, 2009)

Accuweather's Canadian Weather Blog released their preliminary winter forecast.  Some east coast highlights:



> Mean pattern for January
> --Snowy pattern from the interior Middle Atlantic and Northeast U.S up into eastern Quebec and the Maritimes. Equal chances rain or snow close to the coast and in the major cities as Arctic air intrusions would be rare ahead of the storms.





> Mean pattern for February
> --Overall, February looks very similar to January, according to the European. ... Also, it looks a little colder (slightly below-normal) from eastern Canada down into the eastern third of the U.S. with more intense storms coming up through the East or just off the coast and up into Atlantic Canada. Could be a snowy month from the Appalachians to just inland from the Northeast U.S. coast and then up into eastern Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick.





> Mean pattern for March
> --Active storm track across the southern U.S. again and then up along the eastern seaboard.
> --Above-normal rain and snow along the East Coast and into the coastal Maritimes. Plenty of snow from the Appalachians up into eastern Ontario, Quebec, New England and New Brunswick.





> In closing......Based on this model alone, we would expect a pretty good ski season over the Appalachians from North Carolina and Virginia up through eastern Quebec and from the Sierra Mountains through the southern Rockies. Ski areas out in western
> Canada would end up with much less snow compared to normal. Hopefully, the stormy pattern going on as we speak out west will translate into a well established base of snow that can carry through the winter.



I know that long range forecasts are kind of a crapshot, but when so many different models and "experts" are starting to put out similar scenerios, that's got to be a good sign, right?


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## billski (Nov 17, 2009)

St. Bear said:


> Accuweather's Canadian Weather Blog released their preliminary winter forecast.  Some east coast highlights:
> I know that long range forecasts are kind of a crapshot, but when so many different models and "experts" are starting to put out similar scenerios, that's got to be a good sign, right?



Nothing against you, but they don't call it "Crapuweather" for nothing.:-o


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## St. Bear (Nov 17, 2009)

billski said:


> Nothing against you, but they don't call it "Crapuweather" for nothing.:-o



All human wisdom is summed up in two words - wait and hope.
~Alexander Dumas


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## 4aprice (Nov 17, 2009)

billski said:


> Nothing against you, but they don't call it "Crapuweather" for nothing.:-o



Actually bill, he is interpreting the Euro Model forecast and that is usually the best model in winter.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## 4aprice (Nov 17, 2009)

It looks like the news is getting better.  Chat on the weather boards pointing to a change around Thanksgiving.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## billski (Nov 17, 2009)

The real problem is that nobody here has made a sacrifice to Ullr yet!


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## riverc0il (Nov 18, 2009)

One blogger on Famous Internet Skiers has posted suggesting some new analog years to potentially compare this season to including 04-05 and 06-07 which were two of my best years. I am game for that.


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## Johnskiismore (Nov 18, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> One blogger on Famous Internet Skiers has posted suggesting some new analog years to potentially compare this season to including 04-05 and 06-07 which were two of my best years. I am game for that.



I like, my snow tires are not on....


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## riverc0il (Nov 19, 2009)

Johnskiismore said:


> I like, my snow tires are not on....


Neither are mine. I have never not had my snows on by December since I started using them.


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## Glenn (Nov 19, 2009)

Please keep your snows off. That should get us at least one or two "surprise" storms.  :lol:


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## hammer (Nov 19, 2009)

billski said:


> The real problem is that nobody here has made a sacrifice to Ullr yet!


How does one sacrifice an old snow blower?  :wink:


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## billski (Nov 19, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> One blogger on Famous Internet Skiers has posted suggesting some new analog years to potentially compare this season to including 04-05 and 06-07 which were two of my best years. I am game for that.



I hate long range forecasts.
Scott and Lionel have pretty much kissed off T-weekend skiing.  
http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weather/
At least they are being honest!
All we can do is hope at this point.
back to the leaves this w/e


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## billski (Nov 19, 2009)

hammer said:


> How does one sacrifice an old snow blower?  :wink:


hammer, no,no, no!  You're not with the program.  You must sacrifice virgins only!   8)


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## riverc0il (Nov 19, 2009)

billski said:


> I hate long range forecasts.
> Scott and Lionel have pretty much kissed off T-weekend skiing.
> http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weather/
> At least they are being honest!
> ...


If this warm spell lasts much longer, you might start having to climb trees to keep busy raking. I imagine you are getting pretty close to done by now!


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## billski (Nov 22, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> If this warm spell lasts much longer, you might start having to climb trees to keep busy raking. I imagine you are getting pretty close to done by now!


  I ran out of bags this weekend - count is up to 229.  There are definitely a lot more leaves this year - last year was 200#.  I probably have about 20 more bags to go, but it's the crappy stuff, wet and moldy, stuck under the shrubs and trees.  Next weekend.
I had enough leaves, went hiking today.  No huntin' on Sundays in Mass.(well not everyone got the memo!)  Damn am I out of shape!   I could not believe how WET the woods are (Berkshires).  The drainage path were running full tilt and there was water pouring off the cliffs.   THIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE SNOW!!!   :uzi:


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## 4aprice (Nov 23, 2009)

billski said:


> I ran out of bags this weekend - count is up to 229.  There are definitely a lot more leaves this year - last year was 200#.  I probably have about 20 more bags to go, but it's the crappy stuff, wet and moldy, stuck under the shrubs and trees.  Next weekend.
> I had enough leaves, went hiking today.  No huntin' on Sundays in Mass.(well not everyone got the memo!)  Damn am I out of shape!   I could not believe how WET the woods are (Berkshires).  The drainage path were running full tilt and there was water pouring off the cliffs.   THIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE SNOW!!!   :uzi:



Bill I don't understand.  Back in October after my trip to Boston we discussed the fact that the I-90 corridor seemed to be a week to 2 weeks ahead of the I-80 corridor here in North Jersey.  Now I see your still at the leaves.  We lost all out leaves about 2 1/2 weeks ago (which to me seemed early) and I've been able to clear them while you sound like you still have some to go up in Mass.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## wa-loaf (Nov 23, 2009)

4aprice said:


> Bill I don't understand.  Back in October after my trip to Boston we discussed the fact that the I-90 corridor seemed to be a week to 2 weeks ahead of the I-80 corridor here in North Jersey.  Now I see your still at the leaves.  We lost all out leaves about 2 1/2 weeks ago (which to me seemed early) and I've been able to clear them while you sound like you still have some to go up in Mass.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



I think Bills neighbors are taking advantage of his head injury and blowing their leaves into his yard while he's at work. :razz:


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## bigbog (Nov 27, 2009)

_Winter Weather Advisory_....there's nothing more wonderful than those three words...8)   ..But again, just another 10deg lower and conditions would be a lot nicer, oh well....  At least tomorrow should be a good time to get up any of the friggin leaves blown in from others' yahds eh' Bill:evil:.


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## KingM (Nov 27, 2009)

bigbog said:


> _Winter Weather Advisory_....*there's nothing more wonderful than those three words*



I do love those words, but there is one phrase I like to see from the NWS even better: *HEAVY SNOW WARNING*


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## billski (Nov 30, 2009)

KingM said:


> I do love those words, but there is one phrase I like to see from the NWS even better: *HEAVY SNOW WARNING*



And this definition gets the anticipation churning moreso:

*Winter storm warning* -- A significant winter storm or hazardous winter weather is occurring, imminent, or likely, and is a threat to life and property.


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## billski (Nov 30, 2009)

4aprice said:


> Bill I don't understand.  Back in October after my trip to Boston we discussed the fact that the I-90 corridor seemed to be a week to 2 weeks ahead of the I-80 corridor here in North Jersey.  Now I see your still at the leaves.  We lost all out leaves about 2 1/2 weeks ago (which to me seemed early) and I've been able to clear them while you sound like you still have some to go up in Mass.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ




Just cause they're down doesn't mean they're up!   :-?


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