# Weekend of December 14th



## billski (Dec 9, 2013)

WinnChill and his friends at snowforecast.com   have their eye on a major event for this upcoming weekend.  
they are sketching out numbers like 6-9" at Bromley and Wildcat, 7-10 at Bush and Cannon.

the weather wonks over at americanwx are already on board with terms like "lovely snow ratio", "sizeable".
12z GFS and GGEM are in agreement.  Euro is not far behind.

whatever the case, the cold temps are with us now for a while and that bodes well for snowmaking.   Have to keep an eye on this one.


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 9, 2013)

My gut is telling me a widespread 6-10 north of the MA boarder. This thing will be racing in and out of here, but we should get a solid slug of precip in the process. Bouchard is already pimping this storm out, very unlike him.

Bill: Have you see the Americanwx guys freaking out over this little event tomorrow? I've never seen people so invested in a storm, nonetheless a 1-4 inch event in SE MA!


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 9, 2013)

I'm liking this storm for early season base building. The more we get, the faster we can crash the trees:-D


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## mriceyman (Dec 10, 2013)

Im hoping it winds up And crushes us .. Hopefully a nice pow day at kton for me


Sent from my iPhone


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## ScottySkis (Dec 10, 2013)

billski said:


> WinnChill and his friends at snowforecast.com   have their eye on a major event for this upcoming weekend.
> they are sketching out numbers like 6-9" at Bromley and Wildcat, 7-10 at Bush and Cannon.
> 
> the weather wonks over at americanwx are already on board with terms like "lovely snow ratio", "sizeable".
> ...



Will the Catskills get any snow?

I still think Winn chill is a great forecaster, but not sure if he is friendly with his ex employer.


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## Tin (Dec 10, 2013)

Where are all the maps and pretty colors to help me get through work today?

Snowforecast.com must be in default as it is showing 14-18" for most ski areas in NH and VT and additional on Sunday. Other spots like Stowe and Wildcat are forecasted to get 15-20" then 3-5" Sunday.


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## 4aprice (Dec 10, 2013)

billski said:


> WinnChill and his friends at snowforecast.com   have their eye on a major event for this upcoming weekend.
> they are sketching out numbers like 6-9" at Bromley and Wildcat, 7-10 at Bush and Cannon.
> 
> the weather wonks over at americanwx are already on board with terms like "lovely snow ratio", "sizeable".
> ...



The Canadian model shows big snows with a 10 to 1 ratio from the Pocono's north.  CFSv2 has most of us enjoying a white Christmas.  Bastardi says Canadian cold reloading.  All pretty promising.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 10, 2013)

At this point I would take a snowstorm big enough that I actually need to shovel.


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## Cannonball (Dec 10, 2013)

Keep in mind that Snowforcast.com is only reliable to about 2 days out.  Their default is to show 19"-23".  Does anyone seriously see 19"-23" in Waterville's future for this weekend?



At this point I feel like they do more harm than good.  Every week people get all riled up about the 2' on the way.


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## skiberg (Dec 10, 2013)

I have to agree, I have found them to be fairly accurate in the past and in forecasting the long term weather trends but this year they have been over-forecasting consistently. Also, what happened to their long term weather trend. I guess they don't do it anymore.


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## billski (Dec 10, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Bill: Have you see the Americanwx guys freaking out over this little event tomorrow? I've never seen people so invested in a storm, nonetheless a 1-4 inch event in SE MA!



Yeah, they get excited when someone pees in the stream   It's rather entertaining to watch.  However so much of what they write is insider jokes and sarcasm that it takes too much time for most people to sort through it.   When 2-3" gets 25 pages of posts, it tells me these guys need to get a social life!


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## skiberg (Dec 10, 2013)

Here is what the Mad River Weather Blog has to say. They have done a really nice job forecasting in the past, keep in mind he won't make a firm commitment yet 

"This system has a lot of the right ingredients to be a big snow producer, one certainly capable of getting winter mountain activities up and running."


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## billski (Dec 10, 2013)

Cannonball said:


> Keep in mind that Snowforcast.com is only reliable to about 2 days out.  Their default is to show 19"-23".  Does anyone seriously see 19"-23" in Waterville's future for this weekend?
> 
> View attachment 9728
> 
> At this point I feel like they do more harm than good.  Every week people get all riled up about the 2' on the way.



I've not seen that, especially when Cameron is doing the writing.  The narratives are far more important than flash data.  I do know that many New England resorts are still on autofeed from NWS, with no value add.   I suspect it's still on autofeed since there is no narrative at the bottom. 
I've had Cameron come to our club to speak.   The forecasters all have day jobs, not even sure they are getting paid yet/much.

Startling what I see in your flick, though the other days are much more in line.  I'll ask.  Then again, it is Friday the 13th after all.....


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## billski (Dec 10, 2013)

NWS Boston is on board
THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF A WINTRY MIX THAT MAY REQUIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE WEEKEND.

NWS Burlington is onboard
IT APPEARS COLD AIR IS DEEPER...STRONGER AND SHLD STAY
ENTRENCHED FOR ALL SNOW. QPF AMTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF THE
BIGGEST WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF THIS YOUNG SEASON...WHICH ISNT HARD
TO DO.

Albany
FRI NT-SUN...MODELS ARE CONVERGING AT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SNOW
AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION DURING A PORTION OF THIS TIME
PERIOD.
European:
THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ALSO HINTS AT A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM...WHICH
TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH...AND INTENSIFIES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND...WHICH WOULD BRING POTENTIALLY A STEADY SNOWFALL TO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION SAT INTO EARLY SUN...WITH PERHAPS SOME WINTRY
MIX OR RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE IN THE EVENT.


Me thinks my day off on Monday is perfect timing.


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## billski (Dec 10, 2013)

Tin said:


> Where are all the maps and pretty colors to help me get through work today?



A bit early for that; it is five days away after all.  
If you really want to squander the day away with forecast pictures, go to the e-wall and look at the models.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html



Anyways, here is my compiliation of pretty pics, but they don't extend out as far as you want
http://www.iabsi.com/public/ski/

Actually, AZ is doing a nicer job than I collecting the pretty pics.  Again, they are currents http://www.alpinezone.com/weather/


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## 4aprice (Dec 10, 2013)

Not that it means anything to anybody here, but we have a nice fresh 3-inches otg in NNJ as I write.  Sure makes things pretty around here for the holiday season.  Man I hope that Canadian model is right.  PA this weekend but back to NNY/NNE next.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## dlague (Dec 10, 2013)

skiberg said:


> I have to agree, I have found them to be fairly accurate in the past and in forecasting the long term weather trends but this year they have been over-forecasting consistently. Also, what happened to their long term weather trend. I guess they don't do it anymore.



There have been four winter weather events that got hyped up so far since October that more or less all fizzled out.  And there were events like Jay Peaks November this year that we did not see coming!  A nice build up before Christmas would be awesome!


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## skiberg (Dec 10, 2013)

What I like about this storm is the models are INCREASING the probability of snow, as opposed to the past few storms where models began to consistently decease the probability of snow the nearer the event got.


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## billski (Dec 10, 2013)

4aprice said:


> nice fresh 3-inches otg in NNJ


That means everyone from NNJ is skiing this weekend!


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## catsup948 (Dec 10, 2013)

After a slow start to December it seems the next 10 days are going to look and feel like winter.  Snowing moderately here is Shelburne Falls right now!

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk


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## 4aprice (Dec 10, 2013)

billski said:


> That means everyone from NNJ is skiing this weekend!



You know I hope not.  Most will hopefully be shopping, watching football, going to holiday parties (like me after skiing Sat).  Still too early for most down this way.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## bigbog (Dec 10, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> I'm liking this storm for early season base building. The more we get, the faster we can crash the trees:-D


This stuff is shaping things up nice!


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## wa-loaf (Dec 10, 2013)

Tin said:


> Where are all the maps and pretty colors to help me get through work today?


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## ScottySkis (Dec 10, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> View attachment 9742



That make the work day much better.


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## billski (Dec 10, 2013)

BASE BUILDING!!!

WFO Boston
 AT
THIS EARLY STAGE THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN
FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING PVD/BOS CORRIDOR. HOWEVER IF THIS
STORM TRACK VERIFIES SHALLOW COLD AIR WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR
OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THUS THERE IS A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION OF A WINTRY MIX WELL INLAND...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THIS
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT IS STILL 4-5 DAYS AWAY SO ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO NAIL
DOWN SPECIFICS. NONETHELESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM THIS WEEKEND EXISTS.

albany:

FRI NT-SUN...MODELS ARE CONVERGING AT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SNOW
AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION DURING A PORTION OF THIS TIME
PERIOD..

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ARCTIC AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE INTO THE
REGION...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MONDAY EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE
TEENS AND 20S...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO FOR SUN NT/MON AM.

gray, me wfo
12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO LOCK IN ON COASTAL STORM FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EACH CONSECUTIVE RUN APPEARS TO BE COLDER AND
COLDER...WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE KEEPING THE DRY SLOT TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BUMP UP OUR QPF
FROM EARLIER PROJECTIONS. STILL VERY EARLY IN THE GAME HERE...IN
FACT THE EURO RUN KEEPS THE HEAVY SNOW CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...WITH THE NORTH ESCAPING THE MOST PRECIP AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...THEN EAST...BARELY REACHING
PORTLAND


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## drjeff (Dec 10, 2013)

I guess I'll be taking my fat skis out of the storage room and clicking into them for the 1st time this season this weekend at Mount Snow


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## billski (Dec 10, 2013)

drjeff said:


> I guess I'll be taking my fat skis out of the storage room and clicking into them for the 1st time this season this weekend at Mount Snow



Fat skis?  I think you've overdosed on something Dr. J!


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 10, 2013)

The Euro model is usually the best at handling northeastern winter storms, and today's 12z run is calling for a major storm, which is why everyone is now all aflutter.   That said, some of the smartest mets I follow on FB/Twitter are poo-pooing this storm and think the models are mishandling some energy and WAY overdoing this.   Cant wait to see tonight's model runs though - fingers crossed this storm picks up steam.


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## Huck_It_Baby (Dec 10, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> That said, some of the smartest mets I follow on FB/Twitter are poo-pooing this storm and think the models are mishandling some energy and WAY overdoing this.   Cant wait to see tonight's model runs though - fingers crossed this storm picks up steam.



Who do you follow?


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## Euler (Dec 10, 2013)

White Christmas , here we come!


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## billski (Dec 10, 2013)

Don't say I never gave you anything!



Measure is in liquid precip.  For this one, I'd use 1" water = 12" snow.


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## billski (Dec 10, 2013)

GFS, Tuesday Run


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 10, 2013)

Huck_It_Baby said:


> Who do you follow?



Would you think any less of me if I told you I follow about 8 mets from VA up to NE?


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 11, 2013)

00z GFS is out, and it caved to the EURO!!!! :beer:

Has BIG inland snowstorm for entire Northeast!!!!    

The snow bullseye of this storm for the entire region on this model run is right over......



_(hopefully Scotty is sitting down)...............................




_* Plattekill.*


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 11, 2013)

Ran this map and posting it here to give the morning crew some early snow-porn. 

 Fingers are crossed this doesnt evaporate on future model runs.  Will be interesting to see what the 00z Euro says when it comes out in 30 minutes (I'll be sleeping).


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## mriceyman (Dec 11, 2013)

I'm almost scared it's still 4 days out and it looks like this .. Praying for a huge dump


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## ScottySkis (Dec 11, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> 00z GFS is out, and it caved to the EURO!!!! :beer:
> 
> Has BIG inland snowstorm for entire Northeast!!!!
> 
> ...



Lol awesome news.


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## abc (Dec 11, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Has BIG inland snowstorm for entire Northeast!!!!
> 
> The snow bullseye of this storm for the entire region on this model run is right over......
> 
> ...


yeah... but,

will it end with 'mixing' as so often in the past?


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## Savemeasammy (Dec 11, 2013)

Looking forward to this!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Huck_It_Baby (Dec 11, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Would you think any less of me if I told you I follow about 8 mets from VA up to NE?



I don't judge! I was hoping for some names however so I could follow myself...


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## ScottySkis (Dec 11, 2013)

I might be at Hunter Saturday, if it dumps then Platty on Sunday . Will see. It be cool to make turns with people from here.


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## billski (Dec 11, 2013)

abc said:


> yeah... but,
> 
> will it end with 'mixing' as so often in the past?



Right now I'm calling it a precip event.  There is clearly going to be a rain/snow line.  The Ullr pyre is stacked high for a southerly line!


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 11, 2013)

Local weather here in the NEK from the Fairbanks/Eye on the Sky guys this morning hinted that this region is likely to get snow shadowed as usual by the Whites . 
I knew shadowing was going to be likely since that is pretty typical of the circulation with these big coastal storms. He said to expect a light to moderate event here (translation 3-6"). Everywhere else in northern NE is due for a pounding.

Hopefully we can pull off at least 8" to get things started around here.


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## billski (Dec 11, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> some of the smartest mets I follow on FB/Twitter are poo-pooing this storm and think the models are mishandling some energy and WAY overdoing this.



And if they are wrong they have to come to my house at 3 AM and dig my car out!   My money is on a clear driveway at 3am!


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## billski (Dec 11, 2013)

I'm pointing the snow tires north from Boston on Monday toward wherever has the most appetizing pow.  If anyone wants to carpool, let me know.  It will be a long and difficult day, but someone has to do it  :beer:


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 11, 2013)

On another note, this morning is one of the rare occasions we get lake effect flurries/snow squalls from Lake Huron here in northern VT! Winds are just right and there is nothing to squeeze the moisture out between here and there.


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## billski (Dec 11, 2013)

Josh Fox             @SingleChairWx                                                                                                                                                                           




                                Better consensus today of a storm in the 1-2 feet range for Sunday !! Update tomorrow evening


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## St. Bear (Dec 11, 2013)

Scotty said:


> I might be at Hunter Saturday, if it dumps then Platty on Sunday . Will see. It be cool to make turns with people from here.



If Platty gets hit, I may go there on Sun.


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## billski (Dec 11, 2013)

Euro porn


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## wa-loaf (Dec 11, 2013)

You can thank me for failing to get my snows put on last week. Shop stripped my wheel lock key. Need to get to VW where they can remove them with the master set and just put some good old lug nuts on so I don't need to deal with that again ...


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## skifree (Dec 11, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> You can thank me for failing to get my snows put on last week. Shop stripped my wheel lock key. Need to get to VW where they can remove them with the master set and just put some good old lug nuts on so I don't need to deal with that again ...



not sure what kind of lugs you have but got mine off with a monkey wrench a few years back.


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## billski (Dec 11, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> You can thank me for failing to get my snows put on last week. Shop stripped my wheel lock key. Need to get to VW where they can remove them with the master set and just put some good old lug nuts on so I don't need to deal with that again ...


  Thanks!

Do what I did - overtighten the nuts so they snap off when you are driving. Easy off, but I had to get new bolts.   :dunce:


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## wa-loaf (Dec 11, 2013)

skifree said:


> not sure what kind of lugs you have but got mine off with a monkey wrench a few years back.



Wheellocks have special lugs that take a specific "key" to take off. You can't do it with a standard wrench.


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## skifree (Dec 11, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> Wheellocks have special lugs that take a specific "key" to take off. You can't do it with a standard wrench.



my jeep had a wheel lock on each rim...used a 6 to 8  inch monkey wrench and they came off like butter...

probably doesn't work on all locks...good luck


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## ScottySkis (Dec 11, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> If Platty gets hit, I may go there on Sun.



+1 me to. I hopefully this happens. I PM you if I go to Platty.


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## St. Bear (Dec 11, 2013)

Scotty said:


> +1 me to. I hopefully this happens. I PM you if I go to Platty.




I like this forecast.


*Roxbury NY*
*7 Day Forecast*

Binghamton, NY
NWS Weather Forecast Office

This
Afternoon





Slight Chc
Snow

High: 23 °F

Tonight






Chance
Snow

Low: 12 °F

Thursday






Chance
Snow

High: 17 °F

Thursday
Night




Slight Chc
Snow

Low: 11 °F

Friday






Slight Chc
Snow

High: 22 °F

Friday
Night




Slight Chc
Snow

Low: 15 °F

Saturday






Snow
Likely

High: 24 °F

Saturday
Night




Snow
Likely

Low: 17 °F

Sunday






Chance
Snow

High: 30 °F


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## wa-loaf (Dec 11, 2013)

skifree said:


> probably doesn't work on all locks...good luck



Yeah, they are recessed in the rims. No way to get a grip on them. The tireshop will pay for the work, but I just have to find time to get in and get it done.

Anyway looking forward to a good dump this weekend!


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## steamboat1 (Dec 11, 2013)

There's nothing stopping me from driving up to VT. Monday morning for a couple or few days if they get a good storm. Actually was planning a few days anyway next week since my pass is blacked out over the holiday.


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## St. Bear (Dec 11, 2013)

I pulled a Scotty with the copy/paste.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 11, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> I pulled a Scotty with the copy/paste.



I love that forecast. Just so you know Platty only planning on opening couple trails off the triple for Saturday.( opening day) but I think they get a lot of snow they will open it all up.


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## mriceyman (Dec 11, 2013)

im hoping I get stuck in kton on sunday and am forced into a pow day again monday


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## St. Bear (Dec 11, 2013)

I'll take a couple trails of powder.  And if they open anything else, all the better.


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## buellski (Dec 11, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> Anyway looking forward to a good dump this weekend!



As my grandad used to say, "I'm always looking forward to a good dump!"


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## Glenn (Dec 11, 2013)

buellski said:


> As my grandad used to say, "I'm always looking forward to a good dump!" View attachment 9755




:lol:


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 11, 2013)

The noontime run of the GFS looks to be taking the storm offshore... Figures uke:


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## 4aprice (Dec 11, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> The noontime run of the GFS looks to be taking the storm offshore... Figures uke:



Almost makes me think it will definitely happen now.  Gfs is known to lose things at this range and then bring them back (I trust the Euro more).  I just have a hunch that there will be a decent storm because its the perfect time of the year for it around here.  December 1992 comes to mind.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## skiberg (Dec 11, 2013)

NWS post on NEK weather does not seem that concerned. They note difference, but it seems only as to how much. Models are in agreement as to storm  just not exact track yet.


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## billski (Dec 11, 2013)

WFO-BOSTON

ITS WAY TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC AMOUNTS BUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE AND
ORIGINS OF THE COLD AIR OVER NEW ENGLAND BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES
COMBINED WITH COPIOUS SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE...SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE
HERE WE WILL BASE THIS FORECAST ON A SUPER BLEND OF ENSEMBLES/
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALONG WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS YIELDS
A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGHEST RISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN
CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR A
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE /FRONT END THUMP/ IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND
DISCUSSIONS!


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## billski (Dec 11, 2013)

skiberg said:


> NWS post on NEK weather does not seem that concerned. They note difference, but it seems only as to how much. Models are in agreement as to storm  just not exact track yet.



The growing consensus is that the bulk of the storm will not track that far north.


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## billski (Dec 11, 2013)

Blue line represents 1" QPF, which would be about 10-12 of fluff,  deeper inside the blue, the purple represents 1.5" QPF.


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## billski (Dec 11, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> The noontime run of the GFS looks to be taking the storm offshore... Figures uke:



Somewhat offshore is good, gets us into the "noreaster" pattern.


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## skiberg (Dec 11, 2013)

Sounds like the general consensus is overall good for most of NE


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## wa-loaf (Dec 11, 2013)

billski said:


> WFO-BOSTON
> 
> ITS WAY TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC AMOUNTS BUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE AND
> ORIGINS OF THE COLD AIR OVER NEW ENGLAND BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES
> ...



Front end thump, hehehehe


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 11, 2013)

Well, hopefully we get at least enough to shovel.


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## billski (Dec 11, 2013)

Last two runs of the models are snowing less precip.


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## skiberg (Dec 11, 2013)

I saw the same thing. Looks like they are calling for potential of 3-6 or 4-8 inches, not the foot plus we were hoping for.


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## dlague (Dec 11, 2013)

This is how things have been shaping up so far 

last storm 2-5 inches = dusting
around Thanksgiving 3-4 inches of snow or more = rain
just before Halloween snow predicted = rain

now = reduced numbers which will probably be lowered more!


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## WWF-VT (Dec 11, 2013)

Gary says 3-6" from Saturday into Sunday in VT, but it's still early to call:

http://www.wcax.com/category/166239/video-landing-page?clipId=9622673&autostart=true


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## skiberg (Dec 11, 2013)

He said "at least"; thank god. I am still praying to Ullr.


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## Tin (Dec 11, 2013)

I could do my PhD on the psychology of skiers before a big storm. Seems like 3 phases...

-Prestorm Hype: (5-7 days out) Models show huge dump (no Freudian thing here though) when everyone is manic/hypomanic
-Middlestorm: (2-4 days out) Models show a little less and some depressive symptoms kick in
-Prior Storm: (2 days to storm) Models show the same amount as in middle storm or prestorm phase and everyone goes back to                                                              mania/hypomania


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## skiberg (Dec 11, 2013)

Is there treatment for my condition? I think I need skihab.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 11, 2013)

skiberg said:


> Is there treatment for my condition? I think I need skihab.



That the best addiction to have. LOL


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## ScottySkis (Dec 11, 2013)

billski said:


> Last two runs of the models are snowing less precip.



Catskills still look snowy?


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 11, 2013)

Still feeling 6-10 inches of fluff in CNE. No matter how much precip the stuff is going to pile up quick north of 495.

TWC already is hyping this storm WAY to much. They gave it one of their bulls**t names 5 days in advance! 5 days! Does a Tropical Storm get named before they form? Of course not! Classic TWC, always looking for a ratings boost.


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 11, 2013)

*Great Post by ORH wxman at Americanwx regarding this storm:*

Here's a list of positives (from a snow/ice lovers point of view) and negative for the upcoming event as it appears on guidance IMHO:


Positives:

1. Arctic dome of high pressure (and its location). Truly arctic air over a snowpack...will help with both thermal gradient and of course keeping the region cold enough for a lot of frozen precip, even if the mid-levels begin to warm.

2. Southern stream energy with gulf connection. The origin of the energy is southern stream out of the four corners region and it taps into some gulf moisture and very warm air that has been stuck under the SE ridge. This generally will not produce a completely paltry storm from a QPF standpoint. I won't be surprised if some of the overrunning modeled becomes heavier on models as we close in on the event when you combine this point with point #1.

3. This is semi-related to point #1...but snowgrowth depth. The depth of the snowgrowth region appears to start off really deep and this should help any lift maximize the efficiency in producing snow. It's the type of stuff that will sometimes produce 1/2 SM SN with 15-20 dbz echoes.

Negatives:

1. Fast flow with no blocking. This is really the only negative in my book. The fast flow may try and put this thing through a meat grinder too much and reduce the system. This would have to happen to an extreme though IMHO to overcome the positives. We are definitely putting the shortwave through a meat grinder...and that is not a bad thing by itself. If it weren't we'd probably see a big cutter with the way the Atlantic is. Its just we want to avoid overdoing the meat grinding. This is not a pattern that produces big coastal lows that drop 18" of snow to a large area. It just isn't...so if you are still hoping for that, you will almost certainly be disappointed this weekend. The fast flow also keeps the mid-levels out of the SW which may cause ptype issues further south...another negative for snow lvers.

1A. I'll call this point 1A since its closely related...but the lack of phasing between the two streams could be enough fo a hinderance to shear this out a little more...with the northern stream acting as a "kicker" to the lead wave. But again, this will have to happen extreme enough to overcome the positives which include a good moisture source and a premade tight thermal gradient to work on.



So we'll see how this trends.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 11, 2013)

billski said:


> Last two runs of the models are snowing less precip.





skiberg said:


> I saw the same thing. Looks like they are calling for potential of 3-6 or 4-8 inches, not the foot plus we were hoping for.



Yup, this sucker got dialed back in a hurry.  The important thing this far out though is that the storm is still THERE.  Hopefully by tomorrow night's 00z runs we'll know what we're dealing with.



Boston Bulldog said:


> TWC already is hyping this storm WAY to much. They gave it one of their bulls**t names 5 days in advance! 5 days!



You watch TWC?

That's so 1996.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 11, 2013)

lol, I dont WATCH it, I just checked their website!


----------



## Savemeasammy (Dec 11, 2013)

I used to watch twc religiously once upon a time.  Like back when they used to actually talk
about the weather.  Naming snowstorms?  A dumb and desperate cry for attention...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## Cannonball (Dec 11, 2013)

Here's my take:  I'm gonna put the slippery side of my board on an angled slope Saturday, Sunday, and probably Monday.  The more crystals underneath it the better.  But the only 'cast' I have confidence in is the hindcast.


----------



## dlague (Dec 11, 2013)

Cannonball said:


> Here's my take:  I'm gonna put the slippery side of my board on an angled slope Saturday, Sunday, and probably Monday.  The more crystals underneath it the better.  But the only 'cast' I have confidence in is the hindcast.



You are right!  Whether it is 3, 6, or 12 inches we will be out there either way on Saturday and Sunday!


----------



## vermonter44 (Dec 11, 2013)

I planning on going to Sugarloaf for the first time next Tuesday-Wednesday. It would be great if this storm plays out.


Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 11, 2013)

Amazing GFS run. Coastal low much more consolidated and powerful, 4mb more powerful at that. Stronger coastal equals more precip all around. Colder solution as well, 6+ inches even south of Boston. Arctic high in perfect place for snow all the way to the coast. Back up to 10-12in for CNE. I don't know about NNE, but probably in the 8 inch range.

This was the perfect run for all of NE, hopefully it stays. (Which it probably won't)


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 11, 2013)

The NAM pumped out its worst run yet. Extremely weak coastal low with temperatures torching north of the pike up to the NH border. Least amount of precip yet in this run as well. 3-6 deal in ski country.

I often don't trust the NAM, but this solution is definitely a possibility, as well as the GFS solution.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 11, 2013)

GFS still wants to give Plattekill a good thumping!

Good for Gore, Whiteface, and some select s.VT mountains as well if this verifies.

If the 00z Euro comes out in 45 and still has this storm it starts to get exciting.....goin' to bed though.


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 12, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> GFS still wants to give Plattekill a good thumping!
> 
> Good for Gore, Whiteface, and some select s.VT mountains as well if this verifies.
> 
> If the 00z Euro comes out in 45 and still has this storm it starts to get exciting.....goin' to bed though.



Hopefully this is correct. Last winter I remember platty was supposed to get feet and they ended up with inch.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 12, 2013)

Looks like the trends are starting to turn in the right direction! Euro Ensembles came in juicier, stronger and colder with a track that goes just SE of ACK.


----------



## Tin (Dec 12, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Looks like the trends are starting to turn in the right direction! Euro Ensembles came in juicier, stronger and colder with a track that goes just SE of ACK.



I hope, still seeing a lot of 4-8" totals.


----------



## bigbog (Dec 12, 2013)

Savemeasammy said:


> Looking forward to this!..........



+1
..and the mentioning of so many _*Isobars*_ I hear so often...  Anyone???




vermonter44 said:


> I planning on going to Sugarloaf for the first time next Tuesday-Wednesday. It would be great if this storm plays out......




If it hugs the coast, instead of wandering out to sea, it should be good...temps are remaining pretty constant...


----------



## billski (Dec 12, 2013)

bigbog said:


> +1
> ..and the mentioning of so many _*Isobars*_ I hear so often...  Anyone???




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contour_line#Barometric_pressure


----------



## billski (Dec 12, 2013)




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## billski (Dec 12, 2013)

this is a prob of >6" for the period through Sunday.    Sorry about the size.

Models are also suggesting the snow will continue on into Monday.  We'll see, I sure hope so.  
Base building = more trails


----------



## billski (Dec 12, 2013)

Looks like the spine of the greens is going to get 1-4 (south to north) on Friday before the "event".


----------



## bigbog (Dec 12, 2013)

Thanks billski!


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## billski (Dec 12, 2013)

bigbog said:


> Thanks billski!


sorry, I don't have time to make them larger.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Dec 12, 2013)

billski said:


> Looks like the spine of the greens is going to get 1-4 (south to north) on Friday before the "event".
> 
> View attachment 9767



Yeah, I'm thinking the central NEK will actually do better with Friday's little pre-storm front than it will with the "BIG" storm on Sunday.


----------



## billski (Dec 12, 2013)




----------



## billski (Dec 12, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> Yeah, I'm thinking the central NEK will actually do better with Friday's little pre-storm front than it will with the "BIG" storm on Sunday.


----------



## Puck it (Dec 12, 2013)

billski said:


>



Show NH


----------



## moguler6 (Dec 12, 2013)

Puck it said:


> Show NH



The map he's showing (like this one for NH) is for Friday's snow, NOT the weekend storm.


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 12, 2013)

Looking beautiful.


----------



## Puck it (Dec 12, 2013)

moguler6 said:


> The map he's showing (like this one for NH) is for Friday's snow, NOT the weekend storm.
> 
> View attachment 9769



That is what I meant for to attach.  I can never locate that on the NOAA website


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## billski (Dec 12, 2013)

The models have diverged; we'll get something, just how much and where is an open book.

NAM THROUGH MONDAY:






GFS THROUGH MONDAY


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## billski (Dec 12, 2013)

Puck it said:


> That is what I meant for to attach.  I can never locate that on the NOAA website



bookmark this.  http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
They've really developed it into some awesome graphics.


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## SnowRock (Dec 12, 2013)

The weather guys I follow for the local forecast think the ratios are going to start off in the 20:1 range and therefore believe totals will be higher with this system. This was their post of the GFS for Sunday.. looks petty good for the cats and dacks

GFS


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## billski (Dec 12, 2013)

SnowRock said:


> The weather guys I follow for the local forecast think the ratios are going to start off in the 20:1 range and therefore believe totals will be higher with this system. This was their post of the GFS for Sunday.. looks petty good for the cats and dacks
> 
> GFS


   Some serious drugs going down there.  20:1 is going to be blower pow, not really what we need right now...


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## Cannonball (Dec 12, 2013)

billski said:


> Some serious drugs going down there.  20:1 is going to be blower pow, not really what we need right now...



Huh?  Blower pow is EXACTLY what I need right now.


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## Huck_It_Baby (Dec 12, 2013)

Cannonball said:


> Huh?  Blower pow is EXACTLY what I need right now.



+1


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## billski (Dec 12, 2013)

Huck_It_Baby said:


> +1


  On zero base?  When the backside winds blow it all off the trail?  huh?


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## Huck_It_Baby (Dec 12, 2013)

billski said:


> On zero base?  When the backside winds blow it all off the trail?  huh?



There's base enough in northern vermont at upper elevations that I have skied trees already.


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## Cannonball (Dec 12, 2013)

Pow in the Now!!

Everyone has been blowing snow like crazy for over a month.  There is plenty of base to go around.  I'm tired of turning on man-made.  What we need is something to get deep in.  We spend far too many seasons saying "Well it's good base building" for month after month.  

Yes, 20:1 in the trees right now is still not going to be skiable.  But guess what...it's New England we are going to get warm ups.  And today's pow will be tomorrow's base.


----------



## WWF-VT (Dec 12, 2013)

Gary says the significant  moisture is staying south and east of VT but there will be "accumulating" snow Saturday through mid day Sunday.  Stay tuned for updates later.

http://www.wcax.com/category/166239/video-landing-page?clipId=9627193&autostart=true


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## ScottySkis (Dec 12, 2013)

Catskills will be epics time.


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## Huck_It_Baby (Dec 12, 2013)

Scotty said:


> Catskills will be epics time.



Hope you get some pow Scotty!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 12, 2013)

billski said:


>



Yup, that's definitely government work!  Who can spot the obvious logical failure?  lol  



billski said:


> NAM THROUGH MONDAY:



If I had to ignore one right now, I'd ignore the NAM, doesnt get very accurate until the event is a day or 2 out.



Huck_It_Baby said:


> *There's base enough in northern vermont at upper elevations that I have skied trees already*.



Fureelz?   That's great news.


----------



## moguler6 (Dec 12, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yup, that's definitely government work!  Who can spot the obvious logical failure?  lol



It's either gonna nuke or do absolutely nothing in NJ.


----------



## Quietman (Dec 12, 2013)

moguler6 said:


> It's either gonna nuke or do absolutely nothing in NJ.



The last frame shows chance of .25" of ICE accumulation over Jersey


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 12, 2013)

Huck_It_Baby said:


> Hope you get some pow Scotty!



Thanks Huck. Hopefully you get some to up their.


----------



## steamboat1 (Dec 12, 2013)

Put my snow tires on today.

It will snow.


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 12, 2013)

Weather Channel is saying 8-12!!!


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 12, 2013)

Quietman said:


> The last frame shows chance of .25" of ICE accumulation over Jersey



Oh, is that what it is?  Pic appeared pretty small and I missed it.  Those maps are still a complete departure from the reality of how this appears to be shaking out though.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 12, 2013)

My hope right now is that the 00z dont keep shifting this thing east (or at least not TOO much).


----------



## Huck_It_Baby (Dec 12, 2013)

Scotty said:


> Thanks Huck. Hopefully you get some to up their.



Me too but looking better for your neck of the woods. Cats could use it. Sending positive vibes!


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 12, 2013)

andrec10 said:


> Weather Channel is saying 8-12!!!



I feel like that is a little bit exaggerated, however TWC needs to hype things in order to get their precious ratings.

I personally think 6-10 will fall in the majority of that 8-12 area and a 12 inch jackpot around Nashua.


----------



## billski (Dec 12, 2013)

This chart doesn't help much, but it sure is purdy!


----------



## billski (Dec 12, 2013)

This is a computer forecast of precipitation that will fall during the  12 hour  period from 7 AM EST through 7 PM EST for one day before the date indicated at the bottom of the map. This is normally the day after tomorrow. Amounts include liquid forms plus the water equivalent (melted amount)  of any solid forms.  Precipitation is contoured in steps starting with  .01 inch, then .10 inch, .25 inch, .50 inch, .75, 1.0 inch and in steps  of one inch after that. Areas shown in black have less than .01 inch  (usually none) forecast.


----------



## billski (Dec 12, 2013)

This is a computer forecast of precipitation that falls during the 12  hour  period from 7 AM EST through 7 PM EST for one day before the date indicated at the bottom of the map. This is normally three days from today.  Amounts include liquid forms plus the water equivalent (melted amount)  of any solid forms.  Precipitation is contoured in steps starting with  .01 inch, then .10 inch, .25 inch, .50 inch, .75, 1.0 inch and in steps  of one inch after that. Areas shown in black have less than .01 inch  (usually none) forecast.


----------



## billski (Dec 12, 2013)

I like this one.  It's through Christmas.  I'll take 1:10", it still looks like a beaut.  We'd all have a white xmas if this pans out.  But it won't


----------



## billski (Dec 12, 2013)

GFS


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 12, 2013)

I prefer the Canadian model for this storm........


......because it gives me the most snow!

Wouldnt be the best for ski country though, and it is Christmas, so perhaps I should cheer on the GFS.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 12, 2013)

billski said:


> GFS



Bingo, classic coastal right there.

NAM is up to its old tricks. It takes some tropical moisture from the Bahamas and absolutely bombs the low off the Jersey shore. It then looks like its going to cut the low inland, but then it takes it right into the cold dome, which blocks the low and forces it due east from Block Island to Cape Cod. It shoots the canal and becomes an absolute precip bomb, as the tropical moisture picked up the warm sector rides into the commahead and becomes thundersnow. Don't know the precip amts but they are going to be insane.

No way this happens, but a very interesting (and very snowy) solution. I wish the NAM was reliable (It's been all over the place) but since it isn't, I'm going to disregard this past run.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 12, 2013)

Here it is (Look if you dare!)



Nearly 20 inches south of boston!? Gimme a break :flame:


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 12, 2013)

I bet tomorrow's 12z NAM has a completely different solution, and one that looks much more like EURO, GFS, and Canuck.  It is scary that it wants to pull the storm even farther east though.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 12, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> I bet tomorrow's 12z NAM has a completely different solution, and one that looks much more like EURO, GFS, and Canuck.  It is scary that it wants to pull the storm even farther east though.



I'm not really alarmed, its actually a little more west than the reliable models. It goes over the Canal while Euro/GFS go se of ACK.

We'll see what happens in the morning.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 12, 2013)

Canadian


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 12, 2013)

LOL, just took the time to add up all the time lapses on that 00z NAM, and it would probably deposit at least 12 - 13 inches where I live in Jersey were it to verify.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 13, 2013)




----------



## Euler (Dec 13, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> View attachment 9772
> View attachment 9773


Love it!


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 13, 2013)

Euler said:


> Love it!



So still looking great maybe Sunday Hillsdale NY( Catamont ) migth get more then Roxbury NY?


----------



## Tin (Dec 13, 2013)

Got a room in southern NH for Saturday night...bring it on.


----------



## Savemeasammy (Dec 13, 2013)

I'm fairly close to the sweet spot for this.  I only wish my Sunday wasn't committed to $100's in polar express tix.   Argh!  I will have to sneak out for AM turns at Pats and take what I can get.  


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## billski (Dec 13, 2013)

*THIS  settles it!*

OK, OK, OK.  Kelly's sealed the deal.  I'm taking off Monday AND TUESDAY.   Snow every day until the end of the year?  Best early conditions in 20 years?   When you finish watching this video you may have to change your pants.  Well, at least the Tim Kelly part.   As Kelly ends, he says, "Livin' the dream..."


----------



## vermonter44 (Dec 13, 2013)

Looking good for Sugarloaf next week. Getting pumped.


----------



## billski (Dec 13, 2013)

*Kiss me Ullr!*

Seal the deal with a kiss:

*Albany *WFO

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...

*EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AND WPC THIS MORNING
AS 00Z GUIDANCE IS SLOWLY COMING TO AN AGREEMENT WITH A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM. *THIS STORM
IS MORE OF A MILLER TYPE `B` AS REDEVELOPMENT WILL COMMENCE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN EVENT


THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOWFALL BAND AND THOSE WINDS COULD
POTENTIALLY BRING *NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN*
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. 

Bring your facemask and toe warmers and a snow shovel!!!

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. 


*Burlington *WFO
933 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2013
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT
ON QPF AMOUNTS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND A HALF INCH
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN AREAS FAVORING
UPSLOPE ON EASTERLY FLOW...AND SOME LIGHTER TOTALS WHERE
DOWNSLOPING OCCURS. AMOUNTS OF .4 TO .6 INCHES OF LIQUID WITH
EXPECTED SNOW RATIOS AVERAGING AROUND 15:1 WOULD YIELD 6 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA...THUS A WINTER STORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

BOSTON WFO
...
GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE AND UNCERTAINTY...STILL 48-60HRS AWAY
THINK A MODEL BLEND IS STILL OUR FRIEND.
...
THIS
SUPPORTS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF 6+ INCHES OF SNOWFALL BEFORE ANY
POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO NORTHERN CT/NORTHERN RI AND EXTENDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THIS ALSO INCLUDES WESTERN-
CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THIS AREA.
...
PTYPE...STILL TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT TRANSITION TO MIXED
PRECIP. HOWEVER A MODEL BLEND BRINGS A WINTRY MIX AS FAR NORTH AND
BRIEFLY INTO NORTHERN CT-RI-SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO THE
GREATER BOSTON AREA BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.




HAZARD TYPES...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW FOLLOWED BY SLEET AND
  FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...ALONG
  WITH A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.


----------



## billski (Dec 13, 2013)

Girls and Boys in Gray (Maine)

Bundle up you Loafers/Backers:  
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO MOST
EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO N/MT
ZONES AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE
...
THIS TRACK
WOULD RESULT IN A PLOWABLE SNOW EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. GIVEN FORECASTER CONFIDENCE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA 
...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.


----------



## vermonter44 (Dec 13, 2013)

Also looking ahead a bit, there may be some more snow next Saturday


----------



## WWF-VT (Dec 13, 2013)

WCAX update: 

_A *WINTER STORM WATCH* is in effect for Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.  A major storm will move in from the SW late Saturday afternoon and quickly overspread the North Country during the evening.  The heaviest & steadiest snow will fall Saturday night.  But snow showers will continue through Sunday.  At the end of the day on Sunday, we can expect a pretty widespread 6-12" snowfall from this storm.__Once the storm goes by, we'll be left with another cold day on Monday._
_We will continue to keep you up-to-date with the very latest on this weekend storm.  Enjoy the snow, but travel safely!_
_-Gary


_I'm looking forward to a powder day on Sunday at Sugarbush.  10+ inches of snow already this week and a lot more terrain opening.


----------



## billski (Dec 13, 2013)




----------



## billski (Dec 13, 2013)

This is only 24 hour accumulation.  It is NOT the whole storm.   I'm getting milk and beer this afternoon!


----------



## 4aprice (Dec 13, 2013)

billski said:


> OK, OK, OK.  Kelly's sealed the deal.  I'm taking off Monday AND TUESDAY.   Snow every day until the end of the year?  Best early conditions in 20 years?   When you finish watching this video you may have to change your pants.  Well, at least the Tim Kelly part.   As Kelly ends, he says, "Livin' the dream..."



Thanks Bill, you just killed my motivation to get anything done except get ready to hit the slopes this weekend. :lol:  Awesome video.  Is this the Northeast or am I dreaming?

Alex


Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## Huck_It_Baby (Dec 13, 2013)




----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 13, 2013)

4aprice said:


> Thanks Bill, you just killed my motivation to get anything done except get ready to hit the slopes this weekend. :lol:  Awesome video.  Is this the Northeast or am I dreaming?
> 
> Alex
> 
> ...


+1000


----------



## Bostonian (Dec 13, 2013)

So I have to convince my wife that we should go up north for the weekend and get "snowed in"... Season pass at Gunstock, top to bottom this weekend and a powder day...  hmmmm


----------



## billski (Dec 13, 2013)

Bostonian said:


> So I have to convince my wife that we should go up north for the weekend and get "snowed in"... Season pass at Gunstock, top to bottom this weekend and a powder day...  hmmmm


  Do you really think there is a choice?


----------



## wa-loaf (Dec 13, 2013)

billski said:


> OK, OK, OK.  Kelly's sealed the deal.  I'm taking off Monday AND TUESDAY.   Snow every day until the end of the year?  Best early conditions in 20 years?   When you finish watching this video you may have to change your pants.  Well, at least the Tim Kelly part.   As Kelly ends, he says, "Livin' the dream..."



I love that guy ...


----------



## Bostonian (Dec 13, 2013)

billski said:


> Do you really think there is a choice?



I think if I bring the computer up, cook her some dinner off her favorite website "thug kitchen" and more it should work!  I want to get first tracks Sunday!


----------



## HD333 (Dec 13, 2013)

everyone please go out and run your vehicle through the carwash this afternoon, it can only help our cause.


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 13, 2013)

HD333 said:


> everyone please go out and run your vehicle through the carwash this afternoon, it can only help our cause.



What is a car wash.


----------



## Quietman (Dec 13, 2013)

Scotty said:


> What is a car wash.



I don't know, I never give my cars a bath as it might disturb the rust that is holding them together.


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 13, 2013)

Quietman said:


> I don't know, I never give my cars a bath as it might disturb the rust that is holding them together.



I more car was spoiled when it was in Florida, so I do the opposite with it now.


----------



## dlague (Dec 13, 2013)

Bostonian said:


> So I have to convince my wife that we should go up north for the weekend and get "snowed in"... Season pass at Gunstock, top to bottom this weekend and a powder day...  hmmmm



We are at Gunstock too on Sunday and Killington On Saturday!  Getting giddy!


----------



## hammer (Dec 13, 2013)

HD333 said:


> everyone please go out and run your vehicle through the carwash this afternoon, it can only help our cause.


My wife's car got pelted with mud a few days ago by an errant snowblower near her office so we have a good reason to do this.

Would be nice if the start of this were delayed by a few hours.  Have a kid who may be driving to/from from a school dance.


----------



## billski (Dec 13, 2013)

Bostonian said:


> I think if I bring the computer up, cook her some dinner off her favorite website "thug kitchen" and more it should work!  I want to get first tracks Sunday!


  Hey, I got ahead of the curve - dinner AND cleaned out the toilets!


----------



## billski (Dec 13, 2013)

dlague said:


> We are at Gunstock too on Sunday and Killington On Saturday!  Getting giddy!



I am going to start packing now, so I don't forget anything - nightmares from that dope-slap thread -- that would be a disaster of mega-scale


----------



## Tin (Dec 13, 2013)

Anyone thinking Crotched Sat or Sunday? Ill be there both days. They should make out with 10"+


----------



## St. Bear (Dec 13, 2013)

Just bought my ticket for Sun at Platty, $25.99 on Liftopia.

This probably means it'll go out to sea now.


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 13, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Just bought my ticket for Sun at Platty, $25.99 on Liftopia.
> 
> This probably means it'll go out to sea now.



Dam cheap. My cousin GF thinks their will not be stuff grooming for her she is a snowboarding but I guess beginer I told her the beginner stuff will be groomed what you think.


----------



## Mullen (Dec 13, 2013)

Bought liftopia tix to bromley for 37 bucks for sunday.  trying to decide if it's worth it to head up sat afternoon and stay somewhere close or make the drive sunday am from hartford.


----------



## St. Bear (Dec 13, 2013)

Beginner stuff will be groomed, it depends on how much falls during the day on Sun.


----------



## moguler6 (Dec 13, 2013)

Vermont's totals went up nicely from this morning!


----------



## billski (Dec 13, 2013)

Mullen said:


> Bought liftopia tix to bromley for 37 bucks for sunday.  trying to decide if it's worth it to head up sat afternoon and stay somewhere close or make the drive sunday am from hartford.


  Driving will be a lot tricker on Saturday than Sunday.


----------



## billski (Dec 13, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Beginner stuff will be groomed, it depends on how much falls during the day on Sun.



this time of year, everything is groomed.  I'd say the weather gave them a jump on things.   Best bet is to call the ski school and ask about conditions.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 13, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Just bought my ticket for Sun at Platty, $25.99 on Liftopia.



Do you think they'll have much open even if they get 10"?

I'd do the same thing if I had confidence, but I'm thinking Sunday might be one of the rare times I hit the Poconos given they're the undisputed World Champtions of snowmaking.  I'm thinking 8" on top of their "fake-base" might be nice.


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## Cannonball (Dec 13, 2013)

Mullen said:


> Bought liftopia tix to bromley for 37 bucks for sunday.  trying to decide if it's worth it to head up sat afternoon and stay somewhere close or make the drive sunday am from hartford.





billski said:


> Driving will be a lot tricker on Saturday than Sunday.



I disagree with Bill on this.  It will be just getting going Sat but will have piled up by Sunday morning.  I'd say you've better off going as early afternoon as you can Saturday.


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## Tin (Dec 13, 2013)

moguler6 said:


> Vermont's totals went up nicely from this morning!
> 
> 
> View attachment 9778




Where do you find these maps on the nws site?


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## spring_mountain_high (Dec 13, 2013)

woot woot


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## moguler6 (Dec 13, 2013)

Tin said:


> Where do you find these maps on the nws site?



You need to go the regional NOAA sites for specific regions.

Burlington NOAA - Usually click on the weather statement

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/btv/

Gray ME NOAA - click on snowfall forecast

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/

Albany NY NOAA 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/

Boston NOAA - usually click on one of the alerts

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/


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## Puck it (Dec 13, 2013)

Tin said:


> Where do you find these maps on the nws site?




I can can not seem to define them either.


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## St. Bear (Dec 13, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Do you think they'll have much open even if they get 10"?
> 
> I'd do the same thing if I had confidence, but I'm thinking Sunday might be one of the rare times I hit the Poconos given they're the undisputed World Champtions of snowmaking.  I'm thinking 8" on top of their "fake-base" might be nice.



Don't know, but I've never been there and the price can't be beat.

I'll have a good time no matter where I go.


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## fbrissette (Dec 13, 2013)

Puck it said:


> I can can not seem to define them either.




Try here for Burlington:

http://www.weather.gov/btv/snow_info


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## ScottySkis (Dec 13, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Don't know, but I've never been there and the price can't be beat.
> 
> I'll have a good time no matter where I go.



I think if they get a foot the double side will open.


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## Tin (Dec 13, 2013)

moguler6 said:


> You need to go the regional NOAA sites for specific regions.
> 
> Burlington NOAA - Usually click on the weather statement
> 
> ...



Thanks, got it.


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## billski (Dec 13, 2013)

This sucker is winding up!  Remember, these are NOT higher elevation forecasts.  We could see significantly more up there.  Bring a snorkel!


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## Mullen (Dec 13, 2013)

Went all in. Called out of work tomorrow am. And got a room for the night. Hoping this pans out


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## SnowRock (Dec 13, 2013)

Of course my mother in law is flying home from fla this weekend on Sunday.... Kind of cramps my style. Thinking I will hit hunter or Wyndham tomorrow then will have to be the pokes on Sunday for a few hours in the event she actually gets in on time.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 13, 2013)

SnowRock said:


> Of course my mother in law is flying home from fla this weekend on Sunday.... Kind of cramps my style. Thinking I will hit hunter or Wyndham tomorrow then will have to be the pokes on Sunday for a few hours in the event she actually gets in on time.



Sounds like a good plan. I think any where in the Catskills this weekend will be awesome.


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## billski (Dec 13, 2013)

SnowRock said:


> Of course my mother in law is flying home from fla this weekend on Sunday.... Kind of cramps my style. Thinking I will hit hunter or Wyndham tomorrow then will have to be the pokes on Sunday for a few hours in the event she actually gets in on time.


SnowRock - didn't you get the memo?  All the flights on the eastern seaboard are going to be delayed or canceled!


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## Cannonball (Dec 13, 2013)

SnowRock said:


> Of course my mother in law is flying home from fla this weekend on Sunday.... Kind of cramps my style. Thinking I will hit hunter or Wyndham tomorrow then will have to be the pokes on Sunday for a few hours in the event she actually gets in on time.



Any caring son in law would pony up the cost of a flight change so she can come in midweek and be safe.


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## SnowRock (Dec 13, 2013)

Cannonball said:


> Any caring son in law would pony up the cost of a flight change so she can come in midweek and be safe.


Great idea.., and perhaps the airlines even waive the change fee. Billski I tried the delay/cancel tact with limited success so far.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 13, 2013)

Scotty said:


> I think if they get a foot the double side will open.



Really?   Am I just totally flaking out or wasnt it only about a week ago they had bare ground and no snow where there wasnt snowmaking?   I'd definitely go to Platty rather than the Poconos if I thought the conditions would be same/better.


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 13, 2013)

NAM is a big bowl of meh


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 13, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> *NAM is a big bowl of meh*



*It's worse than "meh"*, if the NAM verifies we go from what was predicted to be an awesome snowstorm to crap-tons of rain. 

 Hell, there'd even be rain in upstate NY and parts of Maine.  Doubt this is correct it's such a major flip-flop.  Usually the NAM gets more accurate the closer you get, but given it's absolutely on an island right now I wouldnt be surprised if it has some sort of initialization error.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 13, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Really?   Am I just totally flaking out or wasnt it only about a week ago they had bare ground and no snow where there wasnt snowmaking?   I'd definitely go to Platty rather than the Poconos if I thought the conditions would be same/better.



They have no base but usually because the lawn in mowed for unexpected Powder days they have open everything with a foot. Tough call, I am waiting to Sunday to make my decision. If Platty doesn't get the snow to open up you check out 
Catamont off Taconic not to crowded that is my plan or Bell, windham, or Hunter.


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## billski (Dec 13, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> NAM is a big bowl of meh


 agree
THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER NOT SUPPORTED WELL
BY THE WPC GUIDANCE. 
A UTILIZATION OF  THE PAUL ROEBBER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO ALG TECHNIQUE INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF VERY HIGHS SNOW TO LQUID RATIOS OF 15:1 OR GREATER FOR THE ONSET FROM THE NAM/GFS.

source: ALY WFO, 12/13 pm


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## ScottySkis (Dec 13, 2013)

billski said:


> agree
> THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER NOT SUPPORTED WELL
> BY THE WPC GUIDANCE.
> A UTILIZATION OF  THE PAUL ROEBBER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO ALG TECHNIQUE INDICATES VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF VERY HIGHS SNOW TO LQUID RATIOS OF 15:1 OR GREATER FOR THE ONSET FROM THE NAM/GFS.
> ...



What is this NAM snow dance please. Still looks good for the Catskills?


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 13, 2013)

No way it's right, I just won't believe it.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 13, 2013)

Scotty said:


> What is this NAM snow dance please. Still looks good for the Catskills?



You'd still get snow.  But the NAM is warmer and moves the r/s ice stuff considerably higher north, warmth hugs the coast even up to ME'ish.  Totally robs NJ of this storm.   Like I said, I bet it's wrong.  But it just put more significance on the GFS and EURO coming out tonight.  Fingers crossed.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 13, 2013)

00Z Canuck is out, and it's warmer too  

My 8" to 10" predicted in north Jersey seems to be escaping me...   I feel like Charlie Brown with the football again.


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 13, 2013)

GFS stays the course. Whew!

Ski Country is still in line for 8-12/ 10-14


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## vermonter44 (Dec 13, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> GFS stays the course. Whew!
> 
> Ski Country is still in line for 8-12/ 10-14



Still looks good for the Northeast.

Just hope the GFS is right and the NAM is wrong...


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 13, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> GFS stays the course. Whew!
> 
> Ski Country is still in line for 8-12/ 10-14




 But huge chunks of eastern geography just got completely screwed out of this storm, and it's now way less of an impressive event than what we thought a few hours ago.  Hell, I'm even worrying a bit about the Catskills a little bit now.  

 If you have car and dont mind travel, southern Vermont now appears to be the likely winner.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 14, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> But huge chunks of eastern geography just got completely screwed out of this storm, and it's now way less of an impressive event than what we thought a few hours ago.  Hell, I'm even worrying a bit about the Catskills a little bit now.
> 
> If you have car and dont mind travel, southern Vermont now appears to be the likely winner.



Rain all day or rain after mixing with snow if that happens for Platty? You think if it rains at Platty Will it rain in Hillsdale NY ( Taconics mountain range home if Catamont).


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## billski (Dec 14, 2013)

Windholds for Sunday.  Too bad Magic isn't open.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 14, 2013)

billski said:


> Windholds for Sunday.  Too bad Magic isn't open.



They won't open up if they get a foot plus?


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## wa-loaf (Dec 14, 2013)

Matt Noyes


> Coldest temperature in New England this morning? Big Black River, ME, at...wait for it...-34 degrees F. Wow. Big Black River, Maine, not only was coldest in New England, but coldest in the Lower 48 and only 7 reporting stations in Alaska were colder, too! This is a testament to the rock solid cold air that's entrenched in New England. Such arctic air will result in *fluffy snow for much of interior Central and Northern New England*, and will make for a sharp coastal front closer to the coast. Check my wall at 9:45 for more on possible impact to snow amounts.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 14, 2013)

Scotty said:


> Rain all day or rain after mixing with snow if that happens for Platty? You think if it rains at Platty Will it rain in Hillsdale NY ( Taconics mountain range home if Catamont).



Catskills look fine now.  The trend north + trend warm worried me if it continued, but it looks like they're still on course for 8" or so.  Also, look at the temperatures this morning.  It's already colder right now everywhere than what the models said it would be right now at this time, so the r/s line shouldnt get quite as high as it is on some model runs.   It's the people who live where I do who are losing out on big snows, and it's the people on the coast that are going to get absolutely shafted.


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## billski (Dec 14, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> They won't open up if they get a foot plus?


Read their blog and FB entries.  They are hedging, but my reading is that they will wait until next week.  No point in opening  for just a couple of trails.  They need base, and unlike the big powerhouses, they need mother nature to help, even with the snowmaking fixes.


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## billski (Dec 14, 2013)

Regarding the Cats:


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## billski (Dec 14, 2013)

Here is the freezing rain probability @ 0.10"


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## billski (Dec 14, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Catskills look fine now.  The trend north + trend warm worried me if it continued, but it looks like they're still on course for 8" or so.  Also, look at the temperatures this morning.  It's already colder right now everywhere than what the models said it would be right now at this time, so the r/s line shouldnt get quite as high as it is on some model runs.   It's the people who live where I do who are losing out on big snows, and it's the people on the coast that are going to get absolutely shafted.


Agree on the Cats.  Pocs will have a mix.





This is a computer forecast indicating temperatures in layers aloft for tonight at 1 AM EST.  It can be used as a guide to indicate the type of precipitation that will occur if precipitation falls. Precipitation that occurs in the green area will be rain.  Precipitation that occurs in the blue area south of the heavy red contour labeled 1550 will be freezing rain or sleet.  Precipitation that occurs in the blue area between the heavy red contour labeled 1540 and the heavy red contour labeled 1550 will be a mixture of snow, freezing rain, and sleet.  Precipitation that occurs in the blue area north of the heavy red contour labeled 1540 will be snow.


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## billski (Dec 14, 2013)

Here are your snow/ice/rain lines


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## billski (Dec 14, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> They won't open up if they get a foot plus?




*Magic Faithful,*
Well, it's Friday the 13th and there's good news and not-as-good news.
We're a glass half-full type of place so let's focus on that. The good news is that Tim, Travis and their snowmaking crew have been hard at work all week trying to get a completed way down from the top. They are down to Wand at this point below lower Trick, but still need to finish Wand and get down Show Off. And we will need this weekend to do it. So the not-so-good news is no opening this weekend. Now back to the good news: it looks like Magic will get anywhere from 6" to 12" from the storm heading our way late Satruday and into Sunday. We don't have much base so this will make a real difference for us and should enable Magic to open more trails more quickly if it delivers on the 12" side rather than just opening with one way down. Because we lack base, and the accumulation totals won't really be known until well into Sunday morning, the decision is to preserve it, hopefully groom some of it as base for easier terrain, and ski it next week once we know if there is enough of the white stuff to open more terrain.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 14, 2013)

billski said:


> Regarding the Cats:



Looking great for fun turns.


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## WWF-VT (Dec 14, 2013)

It's 2 below and sunny here at Mt Ellen today. Local TV weather says likely 10-14" of snow along the northern Green Mountains before it ends tomorrow afternoon.  If you plan to have a powder day then travel before 6 PM today.  My bet is that Sunday is the winner.  Monday is going to be COLD and windy. Tomorrow will be fresh, Monday cold leftovers.


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## WinnChill (Dec 14, 2013)

skiberg said:


> I have to agree, I have found them to be fairly accurate in the past and in forecasting the long term weather trends but this year they have been over-forecasting consistently. Also, what happened to their long term weather trend. I guess they don't do it anymore.



Sorry for the bump guys...I'm just now catching up on posts.  I just PM'd Billski too that I'm not providing forecasts for SF this season.  Since the thread addressed it--and to avoid any confusion--I'm not behind the Northeast forecasts anymore.  I'll still be watching things and trying to post as much as possible, but like Billski said, some other work has me tied up this year.  

Ok, now back to your regularly scheduled snowstorm!   

Cheers y'all.

-WC


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 14, 2013)

The last, "Last Call Map" I've seen today .


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 14, 2013)

billski said:


> Agree on the Cats. * Pocs will have a mix. *



Granted, the Poconos always get screwed.  If there's a 5% probability of the Poconos getting screwed, it happens.  That said, seems to me they should stay clear of the r/s line through this.  I rarely ski there, but fingers-crossed for those that do; it's a great feeder and family environment.


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## Bostonian (Dec 14, 2013)

Looks like I am stuck here until monday grrr... was looking forward to a powder day.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 14, 2013)

NOAA notes Mesoscale potential in this area.  I'm sort of on the pink line, but, yes please nonetheless.






http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2013/md2080.html


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## 4aprice (Dec 14, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Granted, the Poconos always get screwed.  If there's a 5% probability of the Poconos getting screwed, it happens.  That said, seems to me they should stay clear of the r/s line through this.  I rarely ski there, but fingers-crossed for those that do; it's a great feeder and family environment.



The Pocono's right now are in better shape then S. Vermont was last weekend.  They are predicting almost 10" and a mix but no rain.  Was snowing pretty hard there when I left this afternoon.  I'll be up there again tomorrow.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## St. Bear (Dec 14, 2013)

Matt Noyes, NECN

http://ow.ly/i/41HoM/original

(sorry, I couldn't get the pic to copy)


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## fbrissette (Dec 14, 2013)

This is getting better and better for Northern Vermont


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 14, 2013)

4aprice said:


> *The Pocono's right now are in better shape then S. Vermont was last weekend.  They are predicting almost 10" and a mix but no rain.  Was snowing pretty hard there when I left this afternoon.  I'll be up there again tomorrow.*



Where did you go (Camelback I assume) and how was it?   

The gf and I are debating Shawnee, Camelback, or Blue Mountain.  Will probably monitor snowfall to decide, that and price, because I dont think I want to pay $65 for Blue Mountain at 40% etc..


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## wa-loaf (Dec 15, 2013)

Looking like 6-8 in my neighborhood. Sugarloaf is saying 12" and still dumping ...


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


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## mriceyman (Dec 15, 2013)

12+ at killington.. No wind and great snow.. I am out of shape lol


Sent from my iPhone


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## dlague (Dec 15, 2013)

14" at Gunstock!  Skiing is so quiet like butta!  It is so smooth and fun!  Small powder bumps forming!  The snow is not as light as they were predicting,  then again we are closer to the coast.   At this time we have been experiencing freezing drizzle but great conditions!  Panorama on wind hold but it
does not seem windy!  Go figure!


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## St. Bear (Dec 15, 2013)

About a foot at Platty. Fairly dense, with a bit of crusty on top. It's starting to get broken up, and skis better now than this morning.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 15, 2013)

Skied at Shawnee today, they got 8".

Frankly, I'm shocked to be skiing in the Poconos in mid-December alone, but the conditions at Shawnee were fantastic, about as good as you'll ever get in the Poconos and it isnt even winter yet.  Blew my mind.  

And oddly, the place was EMPTY.  Reminded me of Platty, ski down, ski onto lift.


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## 4aprice (Dec 15, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Skied at Shawnee today, they got 8".
> 
> Frankly, I'm shocked to be skiing in the Poconos in mid-December alone, but the conditions at Shawnee were fantastic, about as good as you'll ever get in the Poconos and it isnt even winter yet.  Blew my mind.
> 
> And oddly, the place was EMPTY.  Reminded me of Platty, ski down, ski onto lift.



Skied the morning at CBK.  Very good Pocono surfaces and bumps sprouting on Lower Cleopatra.  A great start for the Pocono's though Camelback was getting busy after 11.  (I quit then).  They are blowing a ton of snow and I expect over 3/4 of the mountain to be open later this week.  Wasn't going to do it but the lure of a weekday morning session might be in order this week.  If they don't smash L Cleo.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 15, 2013)

4aprice said:


> * Camelback was getting busy after 11. * (I quit then).



Interesting to hear Camelback was busy given Shawnee was empty.  I wonder if the fact Shawnee only advertised 13 trails (which skis like maybe 5 trails) was the reason people stayed away. Also thought about the Eagles game, Christmas shopping, and perhaps many people dont think about skiing UNTIL Christmas/New Year, but at any rate I was really puzzled at the lack of crowd.  Glad to hear you had a good morning.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 16, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Interesting to hear Camelback was busy given Shawnee was empty.  I wonder if the fact Shawnee only advertised 13 trails (which skis like maybe 5 trails) was the reason people stayed away. Also thought about the Eagles game, Christmas shopping, and perhaps many people dont think about skiing UNTIL Christmas/New Year, but at any rate I was really puzzled at the lack of crowd.  Glad to hear you had a good morning.



I'm glad you had the snow in Pennsylvania I was very happy with skiing conditions at Platty you should have came up but if wasn't for the 23$ to ski I probably would have went to Catamont.


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