# First Widespread Frost Across North Country Wed Night



## powderfreak (Sep 9, 2008)

Well, its finally about that time again.  After this cold front and
anafrontal rain clears the area this afternoon, a crisp high pressure system
will build over the region tonight...and linger through Thursday.  This will
lead to cool days on Wed/Thurs with a cool night tonight, and a frosty on on
Wednesday night in areas away from the moderating effect of Lake Champlain
(68F water temp).

850mb temperatures look to fall to 0C-3C tonight and remain there for about
36 hours before moderating on Wednesday to 4C-6C.  The GFS is slightly
warmer than the NAM at that level.  While I prefer the GFS's warmer values,
should the NAM's -1C verify late tonight there could be some rime by morning
across the 4K foot mark as partial cloudiness should persist over the spine
tonight thanks to strong cold air advection.

At the very least, these cold H85 temps (good indicator of summit level
temps along the 4K peaks) will mean the high peaks in the 'Dacks and Vermont
(Ellen, the Hump, Manni, Jay) might not get out of the upper 30s for highs
on Wednesday!  1,500ft highs will be chilly in the low/mid 50s with near 60
or low 60s in the immediate CPV.  It certainly will feel like a fall day in
the mountains with 50s at the base and 30s at the summits.

Then on Wednesday night as the high pressure is cresting over our area,
temps should plummet in the mountain valleys.  Cold air drainage down the
mountains into the valleys will allow for a strong inversion to set up, so
the summits will remain in the upper 30s while the valleys drop to 30-35F. 
GFS MOS guidance has BTV at 37F, Morrisville/MVL at 34F, and Montpelier/MPV
at 38F on Wednesday morning.  The limiting factor for really cold temps will
be fog formation in the larger valleys...and the GFS is developing thick fog
over MPV and the Winooski River Valley by 3am Wed, resulting in a higher
guidance temp.  

I'm forecasting generally 30-35F over most of central/northern Vermont away
from the moderating influence of Lake Champlain (mainly spine and eastward)
except where dense fog forms...in areas of dense fog lows should hold in the
middle 30s.    Fog formation will be the main limiting factor for a
widespread frost.  The greater Champlain Valley will likely bottom out near
40F with 45-50F along the immediate lake front (my current location).

C'mon old man Winter!  Junkboard season is just around the corner, and frost
skiing is even closer 

-Scott  

From the Burlington NWS this morning:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT TUESDAY...MAIN FEATURE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS
THE BUILDING OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL GIVE US QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF US WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES AND NO WIND ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL. PROMISES TO BE COOLEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR IN
MANY SPOTS. WILL BE WIDE VARIABILITY IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH VALLEYS...HOLLOWS AND OTHER LOW SPOTS POOLING THE
COLDEST AIR...AND MOUNTAIN SIDES AND MOUNTAIN TOPS ABOVE THE
INVERSION BEING WARMER. FIRST FREEZING TEMPS AND/OR FROST OF THE
SEASON A POSSIBILITY OUTSIDE THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Sep 9, 2008)

Wow...that is scary stuff...I hope people are prepared for the widespread frost...please watch out for frostbite..


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## Greg (Sep 9, 2008)

Scott's back! Ski season is definitely on its way!


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## powderfreak (Sep 9, 2008)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> Wow...that is scary stuff...I hope people are prepared for the widespread frost...please watch out for frostbite..



I picked up some extra bread and milk earlier today.


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## Trekchick (Sep 10, 2008)

*32 Degrees in the Mitten*

As I posted on Epic...........
Its Dark o' thirty in the AM here in Michigan, and 32 degrees F.
You know what that means?

Besides the fact the my tomatoes froze
Tick Tick Tick........


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Sep 10, 2008)

powderfreak said:


> I picked up some extra bread and milk earlier today.



Welcome Back Scott!!! We look forward to all your weather and ski reports.  For hardy New Englanders 32 degrees is still sandals weather but down here in MASH Mid Atlantic Ski Hell..when we get frost..everybody will be wearing big puffy parkas..


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## billski (Sep 10, 2008)

Time to start shopping for new snow tires.

Seriously.  It's going to be a wicked bad winter this year


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## roark (Sep 10, 2008)

billski said:


> Time to start shopping for new snow tires.
> 
> Seriously. It's going to be a wicked bad winter this year


Done. Tire Rack had a great deal on blizzak revos a couple months ago.

Bring on winter!


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## powderfreak (Sep 10, 2008)

Greg said:


> Scott's back! Ski season is definitely on its way!



Greg...hope you guys over here at AZ had a fantastic summer but its official, we are on the downward trend now towards winter.  I love weather and the outdoors but hate the summer with a passion.  I'm so excited to be able to forecast some cold-related wx events that meaningless frost forecasts turn into multiple paragraph storm summaries, haha.

Here's to another 6-month season of ski and weather reports from the north country:beer:



GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> Welcome Back Scott!!! We look forward to all your weather and ski reports.  For hardy New Englanders 32 degrees is still sandals weather but down here in MASH Mid Atlantic Ski Hell..when we get frost..everybody will be wearing big puffy parkas..



You said it best...32F isn't much up here but in my mind, the first frost and freeze are crucial points along our path back into winter.  32F is a small step but it has major implications as that isotherm slowly drops south over the next two months.  First its gotta hit us up north, then it'll be in the I-90 corridor from BOS-ALB-BUF, then it'll sag southward into the mid-Atlantic.  Its an exiting time, at least to this poster!

Finally nice to go to weather.gov and see the blue/cold season colors showing up on the County Warning Map!

Here we go...
-Scott


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## nelsapbm (Sep 10, 2008)

Gotta cover up the tomato plants tonight!


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## bigbog (Sep 10, 2008)

*...that's the bad one...*

Ditto...here too nelsap*bm*,
...Tough thing is...have more than a few that are still green!...haven't turned at all yet.....

I'll take an early snow year _anytime!_

SteveD


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## hardline (Sep 10, 2008)

if it frosts the top of the mtns someone take a pic. it will make me o so happy.


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## WJenness (Sep 11, 2008)

hardline said:


> if it frosts the top of the mtns someone take a pic. it will make me o so happy.



+1

-w


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## nelsapbm (Sep 11, 2008)

Only got down to 39 at my house. I'm at 200' elevation. I'm sure it was much colder over in the heart of the Greens (and 'Daks, Whites, etc). The tomato plants are still safe (for now!).


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