# 12/31 - ??? Storm Discussion Thread



## Tin (Dec 26, 2009)

The local weather stations down here are predicting pm snow on Thursday into Friday and possibly mixing Friday. The term "big weather maker" has been throw around as well. Any ideas?


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## riverc0il (Dec 26, 2009)

I got an idea!

:beer:







Not necessarily in that order.  Me thinks a week away is still too far for specific weather discussion on who is getting what. But all the meteorological prognostication suggests it may be time to start partaking in a little preliminary excitement. We are going to need that storm after tomorrow.


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## polski (Dec 27, 2009)

Could start after or at extend beyond New Year's day but the crazy people (and I mean that as a compliment!) at easternuswx.com are getting very excited about potential blockbuster next weekend. Josh Fox also throwing some broad hints out there. From what I understand this storm could stall (exactly where would be key) and it also could produce extremely strong winds.

But yes, still lots of times for things to go wrong. There also could be a decent little clipper Mon/Tue ... I'd like to opt for   while waiting for the longer-term picture to clarify ...


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## TeleMac (Dec 27, 2009)

*I'll drink to that!*

Our igloo has washed away. We need something BIG to inspire us to make the 7-hour journey from Pennsylvania to the great white north.


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## Johnskiismore (Dec 27, 2009)

Snow storm would be nice!  Looking out my windows to rain and fog.... on top of that I am really frigin sick!  BLAH!!!!

News of snow is nice


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## Glenn (Dec 28, 2009)

Talking about maybe a mix here in CT. But up north, a different story.:beer:


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## Greg (Dec 28, 2009)

From the Albany HWO this morning:



> THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM TO BRING ACCUMULATING
> SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
> NIGHT...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE NEW YEARS HOLIDAY. THERE IS STILL
> MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STORM TRACK AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.


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## WJenness (Dec 28, 2009)

Any chance we could move this a day or two in either direction?

-w (Who is moving Thursday)


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## moguler6 (Dec 28, 2009)

Roger Hill's report on Weathering Heights.  Let's hope it's true 

LONGER TERM - Active Storm Pattern kicks in New Years. An increasing probability of "the heaviest snowfall of this winter for New Years Day"


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## Glenn (Dec 28, 2009)

moguler6 said:


> Roger Hill's report on Weathering Heights.  Let's hope it's true
> 
> LONGER TERM - Active Storm Pattern kicks in New Years. An increasing probability of "the heaviest snowfall of this winter for New Years Day"




I hate to put the cart ahead of the horse....

We watched the news in VT last night before heading back to the flatlands. I think the station was out of Albany. The weather dude said this could be the biggest one of the seaon so far this year. We shall see.


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## mlctvt (Dec 28, 2009)

Glenn;494047The weather dude said this could be the biggest one of the seaon so far this year. We shall see.[/QUOTE said:
			
		

> It'd be tough to beat the record 23+" we received last Sunday. I think that was the biggest lestorm accumulation in over 50 years.
> But it would be great if everyone in NE gets a good snowfall this week.


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## St. Bear (Dec 28, 2009)

Lionel Hutz has some promising words to say...


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## Glenn (Dec 28, 2009)

mlctvt said:


> It'd be tough to beat the record 23+" we received last Sunday. I think that was the biggest lestorm accumulation in over 50 years.
> But it would be great if everyone in NE gets a good snowfall this week.



I hear ya on that. But VT didn't get anything last weekend. We skied at Mt. Snow on Sunday and in the morning, you could see the sun through the clouds. What a difference 100 or so miles makes.


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## livtoski (Dec 28, 2009)

*Looks like a great start to the new year*

here's the latest from NWS at Albany.
"a potentially active long term forecast shaping up...including the 
new years Holiday. High pressure moves east of the area Wednesday night 
into new years evening day...as southern stream energy lifts 
northeastward along the middle Atlantic coast. Models having a 
difficult time resolving development and track of potential coastal 
low...as additional short wave energy feeds into the upper level 
trough. Latest 00z guidance...including GFS/European model (ecmwf) and GFS ensembles 
all indicating increasing chances for measurable precipitation starting new 
years evening night lasting into at least New Years Day. So will 
increase probability of precipitation to likely across much of the area. 


The main concern and forecast challenge is how much quantitative precipitation forecast results from 
this system. If...when and where phasing of northern stream energy 
takes places will be critical for determining the duration of the 
storm and *quantitative precipitation forecast amounts...which could be significant*. As of now the 
GFS is most aggressive with tracking the low center just east of the 
area...which would put our area in the heavy quantitative precipitation forecast swath on the 
northwest side of the storm. Also...the GFS depicts phasing takes 
place on New Years Day with the low becoming vertically stacked over 
the weekend and sitting in place across central New England. The 
European model (ecmwf) shows phasing...but not until Sat and takes place farther east 
than the GFS is depicting...in the Gulf of Maine with the heaviest 
quantitative precipitation forecast across northern New England. Both models showing significant quantitative precipitation forecast 
but large location and timing differences exist. Again...a decent 
chance of measurable precipitation although whether we receive significant 
amounts is uncertain at this time. 


Signals in ensemble data starting to reveal potential for 
significant quantitative precipitation forecast...as 850mb u-comp wind anomaly of -3 to -4 South Dakota now 
showing up across northern New England. Also...250mb u-comp wind 
anomaly of between -2 to -3 South Dakota depicting storm becoming cut-off and 
lingering for a while. So...where it snows there could be 
significant accumulations. There is enough of a possibility to 
mention potential for accumulating snow in the severe weather potential statement.


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## mlctvt (Dec 28, 2009)

I like this map Accuweather posted today, although they do say the track could change in the next few days...


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## WJenness (Dec 28, 2009)

WJenness said:


> Any chance we could move this a day or two in either direction?
> 
> -w (Who is moving Thursday)



Nevermind.

Changed moving day to Wed. 

Additionally, not having to move in the storm makes it more likely that I'll be able to ski this weekend! (More time to get the new place sorted)

LET IT SNOW!

-w


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## Johnskiismore (Dec 28, 2009)

Me thinks me like this


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## jaja111 (Dec 28, 2009)

Buffalo NWS office cracks me up sometimes.... and drives me to drink on other times. Their AFD starts out for the moment with:

"IT IS CERTAINLY AN HONOR AND A CHALLENGE TO WORK IN ONE OF THE
MOST DIFFICULT MESOSCALE WINTER PLACES IN THE WORLD. WE JUST
UPDATED THE FORECAST ..........."

We are getting some good LES now and a New Years storm would be sweet - if it'd just inch a bit further west on those snow totals.....


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## gmcunni (Dec 28, 2009)

fingers crossed.. will be in NH for long weekend.. would love some big snow!


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## TeleMac (Dec 28, 2009)

*Bush report 12/28*

The last 90 minutes on the mountain today were as good as it gets, snow-wise, light, fluffy stuff, fresh tracks the whole way down, every time due to the wimpy skiers fleeing and the rate of snowfall…tomorrow, 815am, we’ll be at MRG waiting for the opening bell…I did hear though that it will be two degrees, so we’ll be drinking lots of hot chocolate throughout the day…


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## SKIQUATTRO (Dec 28, 2009)

i am rooting for a big dumping up in ski country,,,,,I'd love to get more here on LI, but i like it better where it counts


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## mikestaple (Dec 28, 2009)

mlctvt said:


> It'd be tough to beat the record 23+" we received last Sunday. I think that was the biggest lestorm accumulation in over 50 years.
> But it would be great if everyone in NE gets a good snowfall this week.



Which is now down to 3 inches south of Boston.  Enjoy it while you can and let's get a big one this weekend!!


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## Glenn (Dec 28, 2009)

"Potential Blizzard"....That's outstanding. I'm hoping it tracks for a good solid dump (of snow people!) over VT. 

WooWoo!


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## drjeff (Dec 29, 2009)

Suprise, suprise,  another New England winter storm where the final track is going to make a HUGE difference from mega deep powder day all the way down to all liquid precip 

Best case (which some models suggest currently), is the low tracks over/slightly off Cape Cod and then stalls out over the Gulf of Maine   

Worst case (which some models also suggest) - the low rapidly tracks up basically the Hudson River Valley bringing mainly a non snow event for much of New England with minimum backside wrap around snowfall


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## WinnChill (Dec 29, 2009)

DrJeff,

Yes!  This thing IS looking real good!  If this pans out like the GFS suggests, there is a MASSIVE amount of snow for ME thru the NH slopes!  I don't want to talk exact numbers this early but measuring in feet could certainly be the case. This storm just barrels on in and slams on the brakes!  *jaw dropping*

Looking foward to tracking this one with you guys!

Cheers!


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## Glenn (Dec 29, 2009)

I've got my fingers crossed! Let's hope this tracks correctly and drops some serious snow!


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## drjeff (Dec 29, 2009)

WinnChill said:


> DrJeff,
> 
> Yes!  This thing IS looking real good!  If this pans out like the GFS suggests, there is a MASSIVE amount of snow for ME thru the NH slopes!  I don't want to talk exact numbers this early but measuring in feet could certainly be the case. This storm just barrels on in and slams on the brakes!  *jaw dropping*
> 
> ...



Yup,  going to be watching the latest model runs closely over the next couple of days.  LOTS of potential with this one(fingers, toes, eyes, legs, arms crossed  )


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## jaywbigred (Dec 29, 2009)

I'm liking what I see here!:

http://snowforecast.com/MountSnow


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## drjeff (Dec 29, 2009)

jaywbigred said:


> I'm liking what I see here!:
> 
> http://snowforecast.com/MountSnow



That would work!


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## Bumpsis (Dec 29, 2009)

The snow forecast looks very promising, but the winds may mess up the picture. Summit winds for Friday, Saturday and Sunday are forecasted to be in 30 + mph range. That's a definite recipe for wind holds.


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## mlctvt (Dec 29, 2009)

Bumpsis said:


> The snow forecast looks very promising, but the winds may mess up the picture. Summit winds for Friday, Saturday and Sunday are forecasted to be in 30 + mph range. That's a definite recipe for wind holds.



If there are wind holds at Mount Snow this weekend and we get a good storm then I'm off to Magic!


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## WinnChill (Dec 29, 2009)

jaywbigred said:


> I'm liking what I see here!:
> 
> http://snowforecast.com/MountSnow



That's the site I update!  Thanks for checking it out!  I'll try for more frequent updates with this storm.  

Cheers!


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## RootDKJ (Dec 29, 2009)

I'm keeping my eye on this one as I'm Stowe bound Jan 3.  Should make for nice coverage even if I miss the powder.


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## WinnChill (Dec 29, 2009)

Yeah, even if the core of the moisture and most intense snow falls through ME/NH, this should be a long duration event with wrap around moisture for good accumulations through the northern Greens.


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## St. Bear (Dec 29, 2009)

WinnChill said:


> Yeah, even if the core of the moisture and most intense snow falls through ME/NH, this should be a long duration event with wrap around moisture for good accumulations through the northern Greens.



There are a lot of us who would view this as an ideal situation, not a consolation prize.


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## JD (Dec 29, 2009)

Bumpsis said:


> The snow forecast looks very promising, but the winds may mess up the picture. Summit winds for Friday, Saturday and Sunday are forecasted to be in 30 + mph range. That's a definite recipe for wind holds.



LOVE it.  Wind hold today.  Gondi never opened at Stowe.  Nor the quad.  Dawn patrol for that shit tomorrow...


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## JD (Dec 29, 2009)

RootDKJ said:


> I'm keeping my eye on this one as I'm Stowe bound Jan 3.  Should make for nice coverage even if I miss the powder.



Should be lots of trees just getting open next week.


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## kingdom-tele (Dec 29, 2009)

over a foot today up high - 6 at the house with wicked drifting

BC conditions are now prime with most debris sealed in until May

If this storm does its thing - I am going to try and burn a hole in both skins, wind hold on powder days?  Nothing should hold you, they are fleeting, especially when they are nothing but pure floatable POWDER


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## Glenn (Dec 29, 2009)

WinnChill said:


> That's the site I update!  Thanks for checking it out!  I'll try for more frequent updates with this storm.
> 
> Cheers!




I like the afternoon update! The totals doubled from the foot or so that were posted earlier today.


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## Bumpsis (Dec 29, 2009)

WinnChill said:


> That's the site I update!  Thanks for checking it out!  I'll try for more frequent updates with this storm.
> 
> Cheers!



http://www.snowforecast.com/index.php

this site rocks!!

I've been checking its accuarcy of forecasts last season (NH,VT and ME), and they have been really close most of the time.No BS either. They really fill a needed  nich, resort specific forecasting.


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## WinnChill (Dec 29, 2009)

Thanks for the kind words Bumpsis!  It's a lot of work for very little return so we're glad when we hear these things.  We really try to get into as much detail as possible and give you guys as much heads up on where the big pow will be.  I'm glad I can share a little bit of that here as well.  

Cheers!


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## mikestaple (Dec 29, 2009)

6pm Boston weather guy is saying this is going to be a multi day storm starting on 1/1 and from the Maine coast and then diagonally on a line to around Meridith, NH and across to the VT line they will be measuring snow in feet.  (He didn't specifically say what the amounts would be in VT).  

He compared the odd S shaped jet stream that will trap this storm to the blizzard of 78 (except this one traps the low in the Gulf of Maine instead of off of Nantucket - so the snow goes north).

It's early, but it could be epic.


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## roark (Dec 29, 2009)

mlctvt said:


> If there are wind holds at Mount Snow this weekend and we get a good storm then I'm off to Magic!


why not just go to Magic anyway? Certainly my preference, particularly with fresh snow...


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## riverc0il (Dec 29, 2009)

Roger Hill posting some estimates:
http://assets.jaypeakresort.com/images/Roger_Hill/12_28_09.JPG

Hmmmm.... Saddleback any one?


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## riverc0il (Dec 29, 2009)

Matt Noyes LiveStream video indicates that Matt says too early to make any calls about this one until tomorrow at the absolute earliest and he wants early Thursday model data preferably. Seems like a ton of different possibilities are on the table currently. Can't wait to get a more exact forecast!
http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/


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## MR. evil (Dec 29, 2009)

roark said:


> why not just go to Magic anyway? Certainly my preference, particularly with fresh snow...



If this storm pans out Randi and I will either be at Magic or Berkshire East. Keeping fingers crossed.


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## salsgang (Dec 29, 2009)

Just booked a new years weekend condo in Rangeley. C'mom mother nature bring it to Saddleback! It sure has been fun watching the forecasts develop!


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## Johnskiismore (Dec 29, 2009)

I'm liking what I see so far, please please please!!


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## xwhaler (Dec 29, 2009)

Heading up to Rangeley tomorrow night through the wknd!
Little warm up day on Thursday for us then the real fun starts!


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 29, 2009)

Well I didn't ski last Sunday as I said I would in another thread. However, Saturday is going to be my day. I haven't decided where I'm going to go yet. Burke usually fairs pretty well with the winds during a Nor'Easter. However, I may decide to chase the deepest powder... What to do? Saddleback sounds like a lot of fun too (never been). Jay has a high probability of being mobbed for the holiday powder weekend so I'll likely be avoiding it (although wind holds at Jay can be epic). Here's to getting a bit of snow in the next 5 days :beer:

Edit: If I can still move on Sunday, maybe I should make this a two day event...


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## wa-loaf (Dec 29, 2009)

Might have to see if I can make a run to Cannon on Sunday. Especially if this becomes a ME and NH event.


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## frozencorn (Dec 30, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> Roger Hill posting some estimates:
> http://assets.jaypeakresort.com/images/Roger_Hill/12_28_09.JPG
> 
> Hmmmm.... Saddleback any one?



This is what I've been thinking all week. However, with the wind likely to play a factor, I'm keeping that at the forefront of my decision-making. Never been to Saddleback. What's the wind like there?


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## salsgang (Dec 30, 2009)

frozencorn said:


> This is what I've been thinking all week. However, with the wind likely to play a factor, I'm keeping that at the forefront of my decision-making. Never been to Saddleback. What's the wind like there?



It can get pretty breezy there. Like anywhere it depends the direction. I have been there in a gale but the wind was coming out of the NW and right up the chair. Other days it didn't seem quite so windy but the wind direction killed the lifts. Overall they are pretty successful spinning lifts in storms IMO.

As of this moment they don't have the upper mountain chair open, so it will be interesting to see the timing / amount of the snow and how quick they can get the upper mountain quad running. I will be there Friday / Saturday. Regardless they have some great tree runs / trials off the lower mountain lift / TBar so it will be fun anyway.


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## Glenn (Dec 30, 2009)

Meh, looking like NWS is just calling for "light snow" for Southern VT.


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## drjeff (Dec 30, 2009)

Glenn said:


> Meh, looking like NWS is just calling for "light snow" for Southern VT.



Darned stupid, frikin' right turn a bit out to sea the models are beginning to show some consensus that this storm now looks like it wants to take     This sucker was looking real good 24 hours ago for  So VT,  now looking like just some light stuff    :smash: with the bullseye over the NH/ME mountains.  Still hope though,  just a slight bump back to the West and So VT is back in the game for big snows   ([size=-4]unfortunately though most recent storm tracks tend to be a bit East of what the models have been suggesting[/size])


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## riverc0il (Dec 30, 2009)

drjeff said:


> Darned stupid, frikin' right turn a bit out to sea the models are beginning to show some consensus that this storm now looks like it wants to take     This sucker was looking real good 24 hours ago for VT,  now looking like just some light stuff    :smash:


You will just need to adjust plans and follow the snow. Condo at the mountain and season passes be damned, if Maine gets the goods it will be worth the trip!

Still plenty of time before this one is decided. Matt Noyes said on his video blog that the models would not stop shifting until tomorrow night at the absolute earliest when a specific indicator will force the models to come in line.


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## hammer (Dec 30, 2009)

Any suggestions on the timing for a day trip?  While I would be NUTS to say that I'd rather not see the snow, I'm trying to avoid having to drive in the stuff...


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## WinnChill (Dec 30, 2009)

Will wait til the midday model runs come out but, yeah, southern VT starting to miss out on the big snow....still looks like Maine gets blasted and even back into the NH Whites.  Northern Greens still respectable but not as much (will have to rely on wraparound snow showers through the weekend)...this thing still bombs out Saturday.  Edging VT accumulations back a little and see what this thing does.  Hang New Years Day with the hangover as the storm takes shape, then head to the slopes Saturday/Sunday to enjoy some fresh powder.


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## drjeff (Dec 30, 2009)

Here's one of the latest 72 hour precip estimates.  The darker the colors, the better for big storm totals







Looks like the best estimates for the big winners now are for Maine Lobsters and Powder as a New Years combo


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## WinnChill (Dec 30, 2009)

hammer said:


> Any suggestions on the timing for a day trip?  While I would be NUTS to say that I'd rather not see the snow, I'm trying to avoid having to drive in the stuff...



Just saw your post...fresh accumulations look to build up through the weekend, mainly Saturday. (again, Maine thru northern NH).  We'll probably get some light stuff Friday if you want decent driving conditions...it'll likely be tough later Saturday and early Sunday.


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## Glenn (Dec 30, 2009)

I'm confused....I'll wait for the afternoon discussion on NWS. 

AccuWeather went in the opposite direction... Yesterday, they had our place in VT getting 8 or so inches of snow...now they're saying 14.9" of snow. 

And here's a map they posted:


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## JD (Dec 30, 2009)

Accuweather is ussally confused too....


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## drjeff (Dec 30, 2009)

Glenn said:


> I'm confused....I'll wait for the afternoon discussion on NWS.
> 
> AccuWeather went in the opposite direction... Yesterday, they had our place in VT getting 8 or so inches of snow...now they're saying 14.9" of snow.
> 
> And here's a map they posted:



Right now about the only thing folks are certain about is that they're uncertain about this storm!  Seems pretty likely that the mountains of Maine are going to get a good dump of snow. Seems pretty likely that most if not all of the I-95 corridor from say the Maine/NH border on South will see nothing more than some nuissance slop.  Beyond that though the models are still all over the place, but trending to a more easterly track which takes VT and likely most of the NH mountains of the the big accumulation ranges.  

If this was one of those hurricane forcasting maps with the "cone of uncertainty" that estimates the potential track a few days out, the cone would still be very wide, but it does seem that the Western side of that cone is moving East whereas the eastern side is staying put


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## jaywbigred (Dec 30, 2009)

Glenn said:


> I'm confused....I'll wait for the afternoon discussion on NWS.
> 
> AccuWeather went in the opposite direction... Yesterday, they had our place in VT getting 8 or so inches of snow...now they're saying 14.9" of snow.
> 
> And here's a map they posted:



6-12 would be just fine with me. Anything more is just a bonus.


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## deadheadskier (Dec 30, 2009)

Glenn said:


> I'm confused....I'll wait for the afternoon discussion on NWS.
> 
> AccuWeather went in the opposite direction... Yesterday, they had our place in VT getting 8 or so inches of snow...now they're saying 14.9" of snow.
> 
> And here's a map they posted:



works for me if it pans out.  Puts Ragged just at the edge of the 12-18 range.


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## WinnChill (Dec 30, 2009)

Glenn said:


> I'm confused....I'll wait for the afternoon discussion on NWS.
> 
> AccuWeather went in the opposite direction... Yesterday, they had our place in VT getting 8 or so inches of snow...now they're saying 14.9" of snow.
> 
> And here's a map they posted:



Yes, a little confusing, but like DrJeff said, the storm is trending a bit east.  I'm trending down a bit on accumulations...just a tad for NH but a bit more for VT.  We're still expecting the wraparound northerly winds to keep the northern Greens somewhat in the picture (piling up gradually Sat thru Sunday) but the southern half will be more in the shadow of heavier terrain induces snows.  Midday model runs coming out now with still an eastward trend...ugh.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 30, 2009)

drjeff said:


> Looks like the best estimates for the big winners now are for Maine Lobsters and Powder as a New Years combo



Camden Snowbowl anyone?


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## Glenn (Dec 30, 2009)

I'd honstly be happy with around a foot of snow. I'd be even more happy if I knew what it was going to do. LOL! 

Seems like this may start later than orginally thought? We'll get stuff in the flatlands tomorrow...but it looks like this won't ramp up in So/VT until Friday/Saturday?


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## RootDKJ (Dec 30, 2009)

drjeff said:


> Right now about the only thing folks are certain about is that they're uncertain about this storm!



Same as the last storm (the uncertainty part)


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## RootDKJ (Dec 30, 2009)

WinnChill said:


> Yes, a little confusing, but like DrJeff said, the storm is trending a bit east.  I'm trending down a bit on accumulations...just a tad for NH but a bit more for VT.  We're still expecting the wraparound northerly winds to keep the northern Greens somewhat in the picture (piling up gradually Sat thru Sunday) but the southern half will be more in the shadow of heavier terrain induces snows.  Midday model runs coming out now with still an eastward trend...ugh.



Keep up the great work.  Awesome that you're bringing us the skinny! :beer:


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## pepperdawg (Dec 30, 2009)

<<just a tad for NH but a bit more for VT>>

heh heh heh


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## polski (Dec 30, 2009)

wa-loaf said:


> Camden Snowbowl anyone?


I just came in here to say that's my jackpot call at this point.

One question I have for the wx experts: Seems all the storms earlier this season (and many last year?) tended to trend west on successive model runs. Does that not apply in this case because it's more complex than a garden-variety coastal low? Or might we see that happen as the southern shortwave gets sampled better, starting with tonight's runs?


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## WinnChill (Dec 30, 2009)

The last setup we had (20th) was a massive closed upper low (slow and stagnant) over the Great Lakes trying to mix up with a Gulf of Mexico low....models were grappling with the phasing and the main influence off to our west.  This weekend's storm has the upper trough diving in from the northwest in a slightly more progressive flow and pressing more out to sea.  Downstream blocking over the northern Atlantic/Greenland/Canadian Maritimes plays a major role too.  So may factors and always different everytime.


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## drjeff (Dec 30, 2009)

WinnChill said:


> So may factors and always different everytime.



Sooooooo true!!!!  That's why I really enjoy being a bit of an "armchair amateur meterologist."  The number of variables and complexities that arise about 99% of the time, especially with East coast winter storms is massive!  It's like the ultimate theoretical problem solving challenge


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## WinnChill (Dec 30, 2009)

It's like a Rubik's cube of weather.  We may have one or two sides in place for a storm but the other 4 or 5 all different....make just one turn and it's the difference between historic snowfall or a dusting.  Maddening I tell ya, maddening!


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## Warp Daddy (Dec 30, 2009)

SOOOO   cuttting to the chase , what's your BEST guess now ?


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## petergriffen (Dec 30, 2009)

Warp Daddy said:


> SOOOO   cuttting to the chase , what's your BEST guess now ?



So I think I just read that the bulk might be pushing east.  Someone tell me I'm wrong


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## drjeff (Dec 30, 2009)

petergriffen said:


> So I think I just read that the bulk might be pushing east.  Someone tell me I'm wrong



Unfortunately for all of us that DON'T live in Maine, you're correct.   If you're making turns at say Sunday River/Sugarloaf/Saddleback, etc this weekend, you'll likely be getting the deepest powder turns from this one


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## jerseyrob (Dec 30, 2009)

drjeff said:


> Unfortunately for all of us that DON'T live in Maine, you're correct.   If you're making turns at say Sunday River/Sugarloaf/Saddleback, etc this weekend, you'll likely be getting the deepest powder turns from this one



pics to follow..............


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## salsgang (Dec 30, 2009)

jerseyrob said:


> pics to follow..............



X 2


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## Glenn (Dec 30, 2009)

Looks like things are looking up at NWS again. They're still not saying how much, but calling for "snow" instead of "light snow". 

A really random quote from the forecast discussion:



> THIS IS HINTING
> AT A PROLONGED EVENT REMINISCENT OF A PARTICULAR WEEK WAY BACK IN
> EARLY `69.


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## WinnChill (Dec 30, 2009)

Sorry, been out all afternoon.  Yep, at this point, jackpot is Maine (~1-2'???)...obviously less than a foot for VT and parts of NH.  The best we can do is just roll with the changes.


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## ski_resort_observer (Dec 30, 2009)

Up here at the Bush we are pretty confident we are going to get a bunch of snow starting Fri but if we don't not a big deal. We are 100% open  and with 9"+ we got Tuesday plus keeping the snow guns cranking the last few days, the mountain is skiing great. Lots of happy, some abit chilled, skiers and riders today. We started spinning the intermountain lift(Slide Brook) today. It runs weekends and holidays.


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## snoseek (Dec 30, 2009)

I am very very jealous of anyone that is gonna get in on this. I would freaking KILL to be parked at Saddleback for this event. Sounds good all around though.

Meanwhile there isn't jack shit for snow in my neck of the woods, at least not without driving a good ways. Screw this I'm road trippen to slc next week-I see thnigs are now happening there at least.


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## ski_resort_observer (Dec 30, 2009)

snoseek said:


> I am very very jealous of anyone that is gonna get in on this. I would freaking KILL to be parked at Saddleback for this event. Sounds good all around though.
> 
> Meanwhile there isn't jack shit for snow in my neck of the woods, at least not without driving a good ways. Screw this I'm road trippen to slc next week-I see thnigs are now happening there at least.



I noticed the other day that A-Basin had only a few trails open. It seems in the last few years the only consistency in the weather is it's inconsistency.


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## KingM (Dec 31, 2009)

Got to love this forecast for the Mad River Valley:



> *  Today: Intermittent light snow or snow showers becoming steadier late. High 29F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 90%. Snow accumulations less than one inch.
> * Tonight: Snow showers. Low 24F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 60%. 1 to 2 inches of snow expected.
> * Tomorrow: Occasional snow showers. High 32F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 60%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.
> * Tomorrow night: Variably cloudy with snow showers. Low around 25F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. *Significant snow accumulation possible.*
> ...


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## riverc0il (Dec 31, 2009)

NECN guys still would not comment on Saturday as of this morning. Wow! Talk about being uncertain of a forecast! We are now within 48 hours and they won't even say more than "we'll need to watch this for the weekend." Granted, I think most folks want to year about tonight's weather more than anything else. But if this storm is big in any part of New England, they really are doing a disservice by not given people more warning. I know they don't want to "hype" something that may not happen... but two feet in Maine is a possibility!


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## salsgang (Dec 31, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> NECN guys still would not comment on Saturday as of this morning. Wow! Talk about being uncertain of a forecast! We are now within 48 hours and they won't even say more than "we'll need to watch this for the weekend." Granted, I think most folks want to year about tonight's weather more than anything else. But if this storm is big in any part of New England, they really are doing a disservice by not given people more warning. I know they don't want to "hype" something that may not happen... but two feet in Maine is a possibility!



I would love 2 feet in Maine! Watching the forecasts is very frustrating. I am pretty sure our pre-positioning in Rangeley (Saddleback) should lead to a very good weekend... potentially epic... but I can't figure out if we are talking 6 inches or "feet" of snow. Time will tell I guess. Must be a tough one for the Meteorologists!


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## RootDKJ (Dec 31, 2009)

Woke up to find it snowing here in Jersey.  Roads are already covered and it's coming down at a good clip.  What a way to end a year!


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## Greg (Dec 31, 2009)

Taunton is calling 2-6" for Sundown while Albany only says a couple. I'll take Taunton's...


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## pepperdawg (Dec 31, 2009)

KingM said:


> Got to love this forecast for the Mad River Valley:



Heading ***somewhere*** Monday - Hopefully Magic, but will continue North depending on where wrap around hits all weekend.....crossing fingers for everyone to get slammed.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 31, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> NECN guys still would not comment on Saturday as of this morning. Wow! Talk about being uncertain of a forecast! We are now within 48 hours and they won't even say more than "we'll need to watch this for the weekend." Granted, I think most folks want to year about tonight's weather more than anything else. But if this storm is big in any part of New England, they really are doing a disservice by not given people more warning. I know they don't want to "hype" something that may not happen... but two feet in Maine is a possibility!



The local Fox weather guy was pretty confident about this being a huge event for Maine.


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## polski (Dec 31, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> NECN guys still would not comment on Saturday as of this morning. Wow! Talk about being uncertain of a forecast! We are now within 48 hours and they won't even say more than "we'll need to watch this for the weekend." Granted, I think most folks want to year about tonight's weather more than anything else. But if this storm is big in any part of New England, they really are doing a disservice by not given people more warning. I know they don't want to "hype" something that may not happen... but two feet in Maine is a possibility!



This situation strikes me as more of a tightrope act than most. From my read-in this morning it seems 1) models generally have trended east the past couple days, decreasing chances of truly prodigious dumps in the mountains and increasing the risk that this event may be pretty much a bust for all but Downeast Maine, and 2) at this point significant accumulation still seems likely for much of N New England but, importantly, spread out slowly from tonight into Monday or Tuesday in mostly light snow. So even if some place does get 2' or more, it's a different story in terms of societal effects if that occurs over 3-4 days than if it happens in a far more compressed timeframe.

NECN aren't the only ones being cautious. NWS has posted a winter storm watch for the weekend only for central/eastern ME and points north, not the NW mountains; winter weather advisory for tonight for N CT and RI; and nothing yet in VT or MA.

If I'm reading this right, except for Downeast Maine and possibly down the coast as far S as NE Mass, the only likelihood for snowfall more intense than "light" is Sunday into Monday from upslope in the NNE mountains. And that's still 3+ days out.


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## Greg (Dec 31, 2009)

26*F and just starting snowing.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 31, 2009)

Drive to North Hampton and back today will probably be interesting.


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## jaywbigred (Dec 31, 2009)

Woke up to 2+ inches here in Jersey. From the sound of the radio, the roads are a mess. Lincoln Tunnel closed, Route 280 closed, Route 78 closed...I got stuck behind a moron going 15 mph on a straight back road.

I hope they get the highways cleared and salted by the time I leave for the mountains this afternoon! Should be warm enough that it stops accumulating. Thruway towns all calling for only a dusting to an inch. Now I have to start worrying about Sunday's drive home; worst case scenario for me would be the storm dropping enough snow on S. VT on Sunday to make the ride home sucktastic but not enough on Friday and Saturday to write home about. 

Ahhh, got to love the east coast and unpredictable weather patterns...


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## WinnChill (Dec 31, 2009)

I'm way behind today due to lousy editing program on the site...lost my updates and had to redo.  ANYways, Maine is still the favored area with waves of snow bands wrapping in from offshore--this should pile up nicely for Sunday River/Sugarloaf, etc (still basically between 1-2 feet??).  Looks like the heaviest snow wraps in Saturday night/early Sunday with even the NH Whites getting some decent accumulations.  By Sunday this storm should have far reaching effects as it backs in to even catch the northern Greens.  Will try to update more later today.


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## WJenness (Dec 31, 2009)

w00t. It's on... SR for the weekend for this guy!

First time I'll get to ski my Wateas in fresh! So pumped!

-w


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## Puck it (Dec 31, 2009)

Ok,  What day day looks better for Cannon?  Saturday or Sunday?  It looks like the winds will pick up on Sunday though.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 31, 2009)

WJenness said:


> w00t. It's on... SR for the weekend for this guy!
> 
> First time I'll get to ski my Wateas in fresh! So pumped!
> 
> -w



Looking into making a day trip to SR on Sunday. I'll bail for NH (Cannon) if they come out alright in this.


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## WinnChill (Dec 31, 2009)

For both SR and Cannon, Saturday night and early Sunday is when the low backs in on us with increasing winds and heavier snowfall (SR more accumulations but respectable for Cannon too), so you'd want to wait til Sunday to ski the fresh pow...however, the tradeoff will be tough conditions with windchills, and blowing snow.


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## pepperdawg (Dec 31, 2009)

^^^Monday pow day for me


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## RootDKJ (Dec 31, 2009)

New Accuweather map


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## wa-loaf (Dec 31, 2009)

Snowing at a pretty good clip here. I can live with 2-4 inches a day for 4 days.


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## ERJ-145CA (Dec 31, 2009)

I got between 2 and 3" here near Vernon, NJ.  The snow has now stopped, though the forecast is for snow showers for most of the day.

After going outside and shoveling and cleaning off the cars my reassessment is I got just shy of 2".


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## Greg (Dec 31, 2009)

28*F and closing in on 2". slowing down now.


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## deadheadskier (Dec 31, 2009)

So, what do the armchair meteorologists think about winds on Monday, specifically at Wildcat?


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## Masskier (Dec 31, 2009)

It started snowing at Burke at 1:15 Pm.  Being the furthest north eastern Vt ski area it will be interesting to see how much snow Burke gets over the next few days


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## WinnChill (Dec 31, 2009)

deadheadskier said:


> So, what do the armchair meteorologists think about winds on Monday, specifically at Wildcat?



Not to quibble, but I'm more of a couch meteorologist!  

ANYways, with that low still tucked in close to us, expect pretty strong NW winds about 10-15mph at the base but whipping up some blowing snow up top at 35-45mph (and windchills).  It's a north facing slope, no?  So it'll be straight into the slopes.  Layer up!


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## WinnChill (Dec 31, 2009)

Masskier said:


> It started snowing at Burke at 1:15 Pm.  Being the furthest north eastern Vt ski area it will be interesting to see how much snow Burke gets over the next few days



Should be ending shortly--this is just a precursor snow event that heads out to sea before things get ramped up this weekend.


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## Damato (Dec 31, 2009)

Wildcat was blowing pretty good this morning from over the top and straight down the HSQ lift line.  Started snowing ~12:30 or so.


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## Edd (Dec 31, 2009)

deadheadskier said:


> So, what do the armchair meteorologists think about winds on Monday, specifically at Wildcat?



If you're skiing Monday and feeling flexible you're invited to meet me and a buddy at Sunday River.  Winds look ok there.  Gotta work this weekend but Mon/Tue looks sweet.  I may try to take the whole week off.


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## polski (Dec 31, 2009)

From what I gather the model runs today have trended back toward more snow for N NewEngland and even a pretty good chunk of SNE. At the same time, wind is more likely an issue.

NWS-Burlington now seems pretty confident in >12" for N/Central VT mountains by Mon a.m. NWS-Taunton sees 5-10" across much of S NH and Central/E MA with higher amounts possible in E MA (where I am, yay). NWS-Gray isn't talking about totals at this point but ME seems most likely to get the biggest hit.


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## WinnChill (Dec 31, 2009)

With the bulk of accumulating snowfall occurring from Saturday AM thru Sunday PM, I generally like the idea of almost 2' for ME, a foot to foot and a half for Whites and northern Greens, at or just under a foot for southern NH-VT.  Not to mention lighter amounts Friday and even Monday thru Tues.  Hard to be precise on a lengthy snowfall but you get the idea where the most pow will be.  Good fluff factor too!


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## snoseek (Dec 31, 2009)

salsgang said:


> I would love 2 feet in Maine! Watching the forecasts is very frustrating. I am pretty sure our pre-positioning in Rangeley (Saddleback) should lead to a very good weekend... potentially epic... but I can't figure out if we are talking 6 inches or "feet" of snow. Time will tell I guess. Must be a tough one for the Meteorologists!



Don't forget your camera, eh!


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## ski_resort_observer (Dec 31, 2009)

According to the report I just saw on the Weather Channel the real snowmaker is still in the southeast and is currently small but as it starts tracking up the east coast it will pick mucho moisture and strength then turn northeast out to sea and become a huge classic nore'easter with Maine getting the biggest hit as it's energy turns couterclockwise back into New England. NH gets a good shot while Vermont less. 

I personally think the Greens will get more than predicted by the national news outlets with the lowlands and Burlington 6-12" by Monday. I think after it's all said and done most of the northeast will get some snow out of this, which is a nice New Year's weekend present for many locations.


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## riverc0il (Dec 31, 2009)

Now that Maine has been established as the predicted snowfall jackpot, I am looking forward to seeing some discussion on when and where the winds will be a factor. I am starting to see a plan coming together but I think the wind may be the biggest factor in my location decisions this weekend.


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## snoseek (Dec 31, 2009)

If I was in New England I would seriously consider Mt Abram. Just steep enough and just low enough. Plus if it's that windy they have a t-bar that almost goes to the top.


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## RootDKJ (Dec 31, 2009)

Snowing again in NJ.


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## polski (Dec 31, 2009)

Josh Fox update: 2-3' for MRG by Tues AM

and Tim Kelley of NECN: ME jackpot but N/Central Greens and N NH not far behind; 50-70 mph ocean wind Sun night


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## polski (Dec 31, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> I am starting to see a plan coming together but I think the wind may be the biggest factor in my location decisions this weekend.



Yes, wind and driving conditions. I have no idea what my plan might be at this point. I was gonna say probably local earned turns Sunday for a start but don't know that I'd want to be in woods during strong gale to storm-force winds.


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## WinnChill (Jan 1, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> Now that Maine has been established as the predicted snowfall jackpot, I am looking forward to seeing some discussion on when and where the winds will be a factor. I am starting to see a plan coming together but I think the wind may be the biggest factor in my location decisions this weekend.



We try to break it all down here.  Hope it helps!  Happy New Year!


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## wa-loaf (Jan 1, 2010)

Will the winds shut Cannon down? Seems to have the same forecast as SR and SL. That's the biggest mtn with the easiest access for me and I want to hit it, but if the winds will really be a problem I'll head out further.


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## wa-loaf (Jan 1, 2010)

wa-loaf said:


> Will the winds shut Cannon down? Seems to have the same forecast as SR and SL. That's the biggest mtn with the easiest access for me and I want to hit it, but if the winds will really be a problem I'll head out further.



On Sunday that is.


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## WinnChill (Jan 1, 2010)

wa-loaf said:


> Will the winds shut Cannon down? Seems to have the same forecast as SR and SL. That's the biggest mtn with the easiest access for me and I want to hit it, but if the winds will really be a problem I'll head out further.



Winds from Maine to northern NH resorts will be virtually the same as this low backs in on us fairly close...the difference in wind from ME to VT probably won't be that much.  I don't know what the lift wind criteria is for the resorts so that call is left up to individual resorts--I scanned Cannon's site but didn't see any lift info.  If anyone knows what the wind threshold is, feel free to post.  50mph???


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## wa-loaf (Jan 1, 2010)

Yes, I was hoping some of the locals would chime in.


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## deadheadskier (Jan 1, 2010)

snoseek said:


> If I was in New England I would seriously consider Mt Abram. Just steep enough and just low enough. Plus if it's that windy they have a t-bar that almost goes to the top.



I would be all over Mt. Abram on Monday if this storm pans out, however they only spin lifts Thursday - Sunday


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## Masskier (Jan 1, 2010)

Happy New Year,  OK,  NWS is saying that Northern VT is good for 2" today 2" tonight and 2 " Sat morning and and then 15-25" for Sat afternoon through Sunday and then more snow on Monday and Tuesday .  This is going to be sweet.  Yeah.


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## Edd (Jan 1, 2010)

Wind holds would bum me out on Monday.  I'm starting to consider Bretton Woods instead of SR to avoid the issue.


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## ERJ-145CA (Jan 1, 2010)

We got another inch here in NW NJ last night for a total of about 3".


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## WinnChill (Jan 1, 2010)

Edd said:


> Wind holds would bum me out on Monday.  I'm starting to consider Bretton Woods instead of SR to avoid the issue.



We're expecting winds to weaken for Monday--35-40mph or so for the summit.  I'm guessing that would be below wind hold thresholds so you should be in pretty good shape by then--still looking into exact criteria though.


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## RootDKJ (Jan 1, 2010)

I'm headed up to Stowe on Sunday.  Does anyone think wind will be a factor there? Might I be better off at Bolton Valley (was going to do 1 day there anyway)?


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## WinnChill (Jan 1, 2010)

RootDKJ said:


> I'm headed up to Stowe on Sunday.  Does anyone think wind will be a factor there? Might I be better off at Bolton Valley (was going to do 1 day there anyway)?



With the center of low pressure pushing in so close, winds will be a factor for most areas Sunday morning.  Probably around 45-50mph pushing 55mph at the summit in the morning...Bolton a tick less with the lower summit but not by much.   If either mountain is a south facing slope, it would help shield the lifts some.  Still not sure what lift thresholds are for either mountain but snow will be blowing around pretty good.


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## ski_resort_observer (Jan 1, 2010)

It's gonna snow, Maine will get the most followed by NH then Vermont. It might be windy at times. The drive might be trecherous. Just pick a place and go, I bet you will have an awesome time. What a concept.  :wink:  Happy New Decade! 

I think driving to Rangeley for Saddleback could become one of those driving adventures you'll be talking about for years. I had several of those in my younger days. Always made it, never an accident but it sure took awhile. I think Mount Abrams would be an interesting choice as I assume SR will be crazy busy. The Loaf will probably be totally sweet but then your getting back to that adventure travel possibility again. How much are you willing to risk to get where you really want to go.

Looking forward to some awesome reports come Monday. Please include some pics, if possible. This is not Playboy or Penthouse where we all " didn't look at the pics, just read the articles" . :lol:


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## RootDKJ (Jan 1, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> With the center of low pressure pushing in so close, winds will be a factor for most areas Sunday morning.  Probably around 45-50mph pushing 55mph at the summit in the morning...Bolton a tick less with the lower summit but not by much.   If either mountain is a south facing slope, it would help shield the lifts some.  Still not sure what lift thresholds are for either mountain but snow will be blowing around pretty good.


Awesome, thanks!


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## roark (Jan 1, 2010)

Wow, look at the IR. Even if only a small portion of it hits ME, NH, N VT we're still looking at some serious snow! 

Now if Ullr could send a little of it to Magic... :grin:


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## JD (Jan 2, 2010)

Hoping for some Stowe action on Sunday myself.  I'm pulling for wind holds in the a.m. since I can't get there until after work....The BC skiing should be openeing up quickly with this system.  RDKJ, you have AT gear?


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## wa-loaf (Jan 2, 2010)

Sowing pretty good here this morning with about 2" down. Off to take the kid to ski school.


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## drjeff (Jan 2, 2010)

About 4" up top and 3" at the base at Mount Snow this AM! An untracked line top to bottom on Ledge 1st run did not suck! Still snowing lightly now!


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## RootDKJ (Jan 2, 2010)

JD said:


> Hoping for some Stowe action on Sunday myself.  I'm pulling for wind holds in the a.m. since I can't get there until after work....The BC skiing should be openeing up quickly with this system.  RDKJ, you have AT gear?


Nope.


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## Johnskiismore (Jan 2, 2010)

Five inches so far, just waiting fir the rest of the storm


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## RootDKJ (Jan 2, 2010)

Updated Accuweather map...


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## deadheadskier (Jan 2, 2010)

Saddleback or the Loaf looks to be the winners. Do not like that line for Ragged.  Puts us closer to the 6 inch side of things.  Was hoping for at least 10.


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## riverc0il (Jan 2, 2010)

deadheadskier said:


> Saddleback or the Loaf looks to be the winners. Do not like that line for Ragged.  Puts us closer to the 6 inch side of things.  Was hoping for at least 10.


Fear not, this thing is just getting started. Storm total so far about 4-5" here in Ashland, I would guess Ragged is similar or just a touch more. NECN is forecasting more snow for the NH whites than western Maine now with most of central NH in the one foot range. Tomorrow should be sensational any where the lifts turn.


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## WinnChill (Jan 2, 2010)

deadheadskier said:


> Saddleback or the Loaf looks to be the winners. Do not like that line for Ragged.  Puts us closer to the 6 inch side of things.  Was hoping for at least 10.



I wouldn't take the exact lines of these maps verbatim DHS....they're rough estimates, especially with this irregular storm.  The northerly flow from this storm does put Ragged in a bit of a shadow but I still think they'll get more than 6"...we've got almost that now and the storm hasn't even got cranked up yet.  Hang in there and take those maps with a grain of salt.


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## Angus (Jan 2, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> Tomorrow should be sensational any where the lifts turn.



So, that's my dilemma - Cannon or Brettonwoods or do we head over VT where I suspect winds will not be as intense?


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## WinnChill (Jan 2, 2010)

Angus said:


> So, that's my dilemma - Cannon or Brettonwoods or do we head over VT where I suspect winds will not be as intense?



You're right to think VT would be less windy but I don't think it will make a difference with this storm--too close and the core of the strongest winds will be spread out fairly evenly from VT/NH to ME.  Even if Jay, Burke or Killington winds are weaker, it wouldn't be by very much at all.  I think it comes down to slope orientation and individual resort criteria for wind holds.  From what I just saw in another thread, Bretton rarely has wind holds and Cannon may have a south/southeast facing slope for some protection (I could be wrong on that).


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## petergriffen (Jan 2, 2010)

well I'll be at Bretton tomorrow afternoon.  12-4 $15 for grafton residents.


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## WJenness (Jan 2, 2010)

SR was really nice today (with the exception of Obsession (being prepped for the NorAm race, and Northern Lights)...

Hoping for an epic tomorrow...

May go out and night ski a bit tonight... but needed the break as my legs were beat... In the condo now.

-w


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## polski (Jan 2, 2010)

Still hoping for enough snow locally (NE Mass) to hit some promising local steeps tomorrow - spent 3+ hours there yesterday clearing woods lines. It got above freezing yesterday afternoon and then we had a little mist/drizzle when the snow first started, which actually was good, to help solidify the base - but that base was just a couple inches ... and only ~3" new on top of that now, so I figure I need at least 6" and preferably >8" more to consider trying those steeps. But with 4" more I've got a couple other nearby NELSAP options to revisit. Then when the holiday crowds go home and winds slacken, Monday I hit somewhere big up north - not Maine, which is either too far or too expensive; more likely the Bush or Burke (have good deals for both, and will be with a snowboarder so no MRG).

Making the destination decision is a non-trivial part of the fun of skiing for me.


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## BackLoafRiver (Jan 2, 2010)

ski_resort_observer said:


> It's gonna snow, Maine will get the most followed by NH then Vermont. It might be windy at times. The drive might be trecherous. Just pick a place and go, I bet you will have an awesome time. What a concept.  :wink:  Happy New Decade!
> 
> I think driving to Rangeley for Saddleback could become one of those driving adventures you'll be talking about for years. I had several of those in my younger days. Always made it, never an accident but it sure took awhile. I think Mount Abrams would be an interesting choice as I assume SR will be crazy busy. The Loaf will probably be totally sweet but then your getting back to that adventure travel possibility again. How much are you willing to risk to get where you really want to go.
> 
> Looking forward to some awesome reports come Monday. Please include some pics, if possible. This is not Playboy or Penthouse where we all " didn't look at the pics, just read the articles" . :lol:



This is my dilemma.  There is a stretch of 27 from Augusta to Farmington that is scary driving.  White knuckle, clench the sphincter and pray driving.  Coming home this afternoon I would have been better off strapping on my skis and ditching the car.  It sucked  This leads to tomorrow...

Sugarloaf was awesome today and I know that tomorrow will be exceptional IF they spin the lifts.  (and if not, you can always hike it)   With gusts to 50, I wonder if and when they will turn.  I couldn't seem to find info on the wind threshold there.

Thoughts?


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## Masskier (Jan 2, 2010)

Northern Vermont update from the NWS

"NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1043 PM EST SATURDAY...MAJOR SNOW STORM IN PROGRESS FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY. STILL EXPECTING UP TO 18" OF SNOW THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK WILL BE COMING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
HAVE BUMPED UP THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO A FEW 20 INCH OR SO
TOTALS.


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## JD (Jan 3, 2010)

only about 4 here overnight....go north my firends.


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## nelsapbm (Jan 3, 2010)

Only 4 in Northfield? 
25" in South Burlington is being reported by the NWS. 
Have not been out to measure but we must have 18" or so inches here in the foothills of the western slopes.


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## polski (Jan 3, 2010)

Even to the north it appears to have been highly localized to Champlain Valley and western slopes of the Greens. From NWS spotter reports: Essex Junction 26", S. Burlington 25", Stowe 4.5" (the ski area reports 6-9 in last 24 hrs). MRG says 8-10" at the summit but hardly anything at the base.


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## nelsapbm (Jan 3, 2010)

WOW...Crazy!


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## Northernflight (Jan 3, 2010)

18-24 at Bretton Woods


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## Greg (Jan 3, 2010)

Dumping here right now...


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## drjeff (Jan 3, 2010)

I'd say atleast 6" at Mount Snow, really tough to tell as it's really dry, fluffy stuff and the wind is HOWLING out of the NW.  Tough to tell if it's still snowing or just blowing around?????  Had to dig out about a 4 foot deep drift from my front door to let the dog out this AM.  Some nice pockets of soft pow on the mountain, but you had to look for it as there's lot's of wind blown slabs/drifts and dust on crust depending on exposure to the wind.  COLD here too, just over 8 degrees at 11:15AM - kind of hoping that some of the warmer air trying to back in across Maine right now moves West and gets in here to atleast moderate temps into the 20's


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## Ski Diva (Jan 3, 2010)

We probably got 6 to 8 inches here in Plymouth, VT, between Ludlow and Killington. The wind is HOWLING, though, which is less than pleasant. I went over to Okemo this morning for the free hour, opened my car door, and decided it wasn't for me. I turned around and went back home. Okay, I'm a wuss.

Besides, I'll be skiing the rest of the week.


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## psyflyer (Jan 3, 2010)

Burke got over a foot and in some slopes up top it was more like a foot and half.  Rode all morning (Doug's, Dippers, Ledges, Bear Den, couple of Glades, Terrain Park) and it was a blast.  It stopped snowing around 930am and just started again about 30 minutes ago.  Good start to the new year.


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## Edd (Jan 3, 2010)

Skied Cranmore in North Conway this morning and they got less than a few inches overnight, and there was virtually no wind.  Weird.  There was talk about Bretton Woods getting hammered only 30 minutes away.  I'm checking them out on Tuesday and hitting SR tomorrow.


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## nelsapbm (Jan 3, 2010)

Record breaking snowfall in Burlington....32 inches. 21 inches at my house.


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## wa-loaf (Jan 5, 2010)

The storm seems to have made it over to England:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34706351/ns/world_news-europe/


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## WinnChill (Jan 5, 2010)

wa-loaf said:


> The storm seems to have made it over to England:
> http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34706351/ns/world_news-europe/



Not to split hairs or anything, but as a weather guy, I like to help provide more insight into how the weather world works.  I know you're innocently showing how England is getting hit with winter weather too, but, technically, it actually wasn't our historic storm that hit England.  Just pointing out that our storm never made it across the pond...it stalled and is still hovering nearby although in a much weakened state.  The pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere threw the brakes on everything and it actually backpedaled a bit (edged westward) the past few days.  England's trough dropped in from the north/northeast so it was an entirely different animal.  That's all.  Thanks for obliging me Wa-loaf!  Guess when the storms quiet down there's not much else to talk about.  Cheers!


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## wa-loaf (Jan 5, 2010)

Yeah, I was just making the connection without really looking into it. Busted.

Anyway skiing in Scotland must be pretty good right now ...


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## 4aprice (Jan 5, 2010)

Winnchill:

You seem to have good insight on the pattern, so I'll throw a couple of questions your way.

After this shot of Artic air this weekend it looks as though things will moderate or relax a bit.  1. Do you think the pattern will reload?  2. Storms like to develop as cold either arrives or departs, is there the chance for a storm as this current colder period wanes?

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## WinnChill (Jan 5, 2010)

wa-loaf said:


> Yeah, I was just making the connection without really looking into it. Busted.QUOTE]
> 
> I hear ya--I knew what you meant.  Thanks for the heads up about it.  Cheers!


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## WinnChill (Jan 5, 2010)

4aprice said:


> Winnchill:
> 
> You seem to have good insight on the pattern, so I'll throw a couple of questions your way.
> 
> ...



I don't see a whole lot to get too excited about--the pattern has been so amplified lately that it seems it will, like you said, relax a little.  Some of the pattern indicators we look at were off the chart recently with all the storminess but they seem to be heading in the opposite direction for next week--it looks pretty calm for the most part--perhaps something for the weekend of the 16th/17th so will keep watch on that one.  I'm still trying to grasp this long range thing too.  I'll try to keep you posted here.  DrJeff has been helping with that too, so kudos to him.


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## BLESS (Jan 5, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Not to split hairs or anything, but as a weather guy, I like to help provide more insight into how the weather world works.  I know you're innocently showing how England is getting hit with winter weather too, but, technically, it actually wasn't our historic storm that hit England.  Just pointing out that our storm never made it across the pond...it stalled and is still hovering nearby although in a much weakened state.  The pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere threw the brakes on everything and it actually backpedaled a bit (edged westward) the past few days.  England's trough dropped in from the north/northeast so it was an entirely different animal.  That's all.  Thanks for obliging me Wa-loaf!  Guess when the storms quiet down there's not much else to talk about.  Cheers!




geez, who pissed in your cheerios?


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## wa-loaf (Jan 5, 2010)

BLESS said:


> geez, who pissed in your cheerios?



Meh, I jumped to a conclusion. He corrected me. No biggie.


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## WinnChill (Jan 5, 2010)

Nobody, why?  Just explaining the technicalities of a simple weather pattern, that's all.  Jeez, where'd you get that I was PO'd????


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## WinnChill (Jan 5, 2010)

wa-loaf said:


> Meh, I jumped to a conclusion. He corrected me. No biggie.



It's all good Wa Loaf...now let's go hit the slopes.  Cheers!


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## drjeff (Jan 5, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> I don't see a whole lot to get too excited about--the pattern has been so amplified lately that it seems it will, like you said, relax a little.  Some of the pattern indicators we look at were off the chart recently with all the storminess but they seem to be heading in the opposite direction for next week--it looks pretty calm for the most part--perhaps something for the weekend of the 16th/17th so will keep watch on that one.  I'm still trying to grasp this long range thing too.  I'll try to keep you posted here.  DrJeff has been helping with that too, so kudos to him.



Thanks WinnChill.

Yup, I agree that we look to be pretty quiet now for the next say 10+ days or so.  Best way for folks to conceptually visualize what's going on (or not going on) over the Northeast for the forseeable future is to think of a tire mounted on your car.  The active part of the storm track the majority of the time is where the tread of the tire is (on the periphery),  right now, we have the axel smack dab over us, and that keeps us quiet and away from the active storm track.  Pretty much all it looks like we'll be seeing for a while is oscillations in the extent of how cold the cold air will be over us.

From a ski area perspective, what the first say 1/2 of January should do, is allow the majority of ski areas to make their target quantities of snow over much of their terrain , and for some areas that will be it for their snowmaking for the year, and for many that will switch them from an active base building mode to an as needed for recovery/touch up mode.


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## KingM (Jan 6, 2010)

While I'd love to have some fresh snow, we're in good enough shape that I'd absolutely take a quiet week or so over the typical January thaw. Even the little snow showers that are coming through are enough to keep things freshened up.


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## polski (Jan 6, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> Just pointing out that our storm never made it across the pond...it stalled and is still hovering nearby although in a much weakened state.  The pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere threw the brakes on everything and it actually backpedaled a bit (edged westward) the past few days.



This situation actually provided me a great opportunity to apply what (little) I know about meteorology into the destination-selection process, with a very satisfactory outcome. I knew that low had stalled to our north and that, while weakened, it still meant things were "upside-down," with warmer temps to the north, at least in upper levels of the atmosphere. Early Monday morning as I was getting ready to depart for Burke, I did a last-minute weather check and saw the NWS was talking about freezing drizzle in N and central VT but not in the south, which made sense given the "upside-down" situation. Also I knew  freezing drizzle is not elevation-dependent - temps were below freezing at the surface everywhere but above freezing at higher levels of the atmosphere in the north, so up north any liquid precip (rain/drizzle) would freeze as it landed, no matter what altitude.

So, as I mentioned in my TR, I changed my plans and hit Magic instead. I did this mainly so I wouldn't encounter nasty driving conditions on the ride up but I've seen a couple reports indicating there was enough freezing drizzle to create a crust on the skiing surface at Smuggs and MRG at least. Maybe Burke didn't get hit with that but there definitely was no such problem at Magic.


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## polski (Jan 8, 2010)

Since this thread's title got changed to the ??? at the end, I guess we don't need a separate "Boring Weather Pattern" thread ... though I'd definitely take cold+boring over the kinds of crap January often brings. And a little light snow today doesn't hurt.

Maybe things'll get more active next weekend.


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