# 2/26 - 2/27 Speculation Thread



## Greg (Feb 23, 2009)

Looks kinda iffy, but maybe some snow after the front departs. Heading to Killington Friday evening with the family. Please don't tell me we're looking at FRGR this weekend... :blink:


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## deadheadskier (Feb 23, 2009)

Praying for the best.  

Three options planned.

1. Ragged if they get all snow, which is preferred for the drive time as it's a day trip
2. Burke if they get snow and Ragged is NCP, twice the drive and not favored for a day trip
3. Tenney if both Burke and Ragged get NCP and I'm stuck with FRGR


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## Johnskiismore (Feb 23, 2009)

If it must rain.... PLEASE be minimal!


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## mondeo (Feb 23, 2009)

I don't think the forecast on one of these storms this far out has been close this year. Here's hoping they're wrong again.


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## ALLSKIING (Feb 24, 2009)

I keep looking to see if it changes....not yet, but its still a few day out.


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## hammer (Feb 24, 2009)

So far it sounds like all liquid in the flatlands...I'm more concerned about timing, also heading north on Friday evening.


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## Greg (Feb 24, 2009)

Kinda outdated (1 am) but not looking too bad for the Greens:



> .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
> AS OF 100 AM EST TUESDAY...WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
> SYSTEM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
> NIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. WITH WAA IN
> ...


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## skiadikt (Feb 24, 2009)

Greg said:


> Looks kinda iffy, but maybe some snow after the front departs. Heading to Killington Friday evening with the family. Please don't tell me we're looking at FRGR this weekend... :blink:



tell me about it ... i was up there last mon-wed before they received 44" of snow and since then i've had to listen to all these incredible trail reports. timing is everything ...

at this point it doesn't look too bad. maybe a couple inches on the the backside. so while we won't need the snorkel, your bump runs "should" hold up.


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## gladerider (Feb 24, 2009)

heading up to snow this weekend. this doesn't sound encouraging.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 24, 2009)

Looking like rain south of the Canadian Border..


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## hammer (Feb 24, 2009)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> Looking like rain south of the Canadian Border..


Yep, even seeing an NCP forecast for Jay Peak later on this week on their website.  Sure hope that they don't go from epic to crap in a week...:???:


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## AMAC2233 (Feb 24, 2009)

That's the problem with this year. Everytime it gets good, it goes bad within a week (Except for that 3 week bitter cold stretch in January) or maybe I'm just jealous because I missed last weekend.


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## skiadikt (Feb 24, 2009)

AMAC2233 said:


> That's the problem with this year. Everytime it gets good, it goes bad within a week (Except for that 3 week bitter cold stretch in January) or maybe I'm just jealous because I missed last weekend.



that's the nature of eastern skiing - epic to crap in a few days. the good thing is there's a deep base. and yeah i'm jealous about missing last weekend.


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## mondeo (Feb 24, 2009)

NWS and snow-forecast seem to put Killington on the edge of minor rain or minor snowfall.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 24, 2009)

AMAC2233 said:


> That's the problem with this year. Everytime it gets good, it goes bad within a week (Except for that 3 week bitter cold stretch in January) or maybe I'm just jealous because I missed last weekend.



I've had alot more good days than bad days this season...if I remember correctly..New England only had one major thaw..


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## billski (Feb 24, 2009)

hammer said:


> Yep, even seeing an NCP forecast for Jay Peak later on this week on their website.  Sure hope that they don't go from epic to crap in a week...:???:



skiing in the northeast means you have to live for the moment.  That's why, as tired as I was I skied to the last possible lift yesterday.  It does seem however that the NCP is of a much shorter duration.  The other thing is that most forecasts are good to about 2000 ft. only.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 24, 2009)

maybe lake effect snow after the rain..


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## KingM (Feb 24, 2009)

skiadikt said:


> that's the nature of eastern skiing - epic to crap in a few days.



But we also go crap to epic in a week, as we've just done.



> I've had alot more good days than bad days this season...if I remember correctly..New England only had one major thaw..



Two thaws, one right before Christmas, one right before President's Week. Not great timing, but still, my impression has been that this is not quite as good as last year, but better than the previous few. I've had some great skiing, plan to get more, and even the business hasn't been bad, which is saying something, given the craptastic state of the economy.


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## psyflyer (Feb 24, 2009)

Local Forecast is being naive about this storm as the lady-chik said just now that Mountain locals could see "additional snow accumulation" while the valley might be "messy".  Unfortunatley trying to decipher what she is trying to say is next to impossible, seems like so far they don't know.  Let's hope.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 24, 2009)

deadheadskier said:


> Praying for the best.
> 
> Three options planned.
> 
> ...



and none will happen, f'n work


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## ZYDECORICH (Feb 24, 2009)

deadheadskier said:


> and none will happen, f'n work



ahh... work, the equalizer. we all have to do something about that.


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## Glenn (Feb 25, 2009)

Friday is iffy in Southern VT right now.  :uzi:


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## hammer (Feb 25, 2009)

Now I'm getting concerned...even Jay Peak is forecasting 1/2" of nair on Friday.  How will that affect conditions at this point?


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## danny p (Feb 25, 2009)

if it stays light it will probably just put a crust on the new snow.  Looks like a new storm might be hitting the area Sunday into Monday....hope so.


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## billski (Feb 25, 2009)

*We just can't keep anything good around here, can we?*

First, it was the Elvis decanter that spotty knocked down.
Then  the dayglow felt painting of mountains wuz smashed, 
Now its the snow.

We just can't keep anything good around here, can we?:angry:


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## billski (Feb 25, 2009)

hammer said:


> Now I'm getting concerned...even Jay Peak is forecasting 1/2" of nair on Friday.  How will that affect conditions at this point?




Gonna depend on the elevations.  Keep you eye on the BTV recreation/mt. forecasts and look to see what Scotty says.
My baseline is that the summits are 5-10 degrees cooler than the valley.  NWS forecasts are for the valley up to 2000 ft.  If the NWS forecast for Jay is telling you 40 and rain (in the valley), well , then ca-ca!  Not a promise, but the probs are high for rain at higher els.

Right now, I don't like the forecast for 42 at Morrisville.  Morrisville is traditionally colder than some of the valleys.

Sometimes you end up with all pow on top and ice below.  
As they say, stay tuned.  I've got the same prob. I'm going to be at BV and Stowe.


Unless of course there is a temperature inversion, in which case, we all go drinking...


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## Greg (Feb 25, 2009)

Bullshit. But we're heading to Killington anyway, FRGR or not. I will be spending a fair amount of time at Snowshed with the kids anyway, but it would have been nice to head off and hit some of the good stuff for a few hours. And then maybe drive home into a winter storm Sunday afternoon? Greeeat... :roll:


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## billski (Feb 25, 2009)

Greg said:


> Bullshit. But we're heading to Killington anyway, FRGR or not. I will be spending a fair amount of time at Snowshed with the kids anyway, but it would have been nice to head off and hit some of the good stuff for a few hours. And then maybe drive home into a winter storm Sunday afternoon? Greeeat... :roll:



I'm going too.  I'm sure the groomers will make lemonade if necessary.


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## hammer (Feb 25, 2009)

billski said:


> I'm going too.  I'm sure the groomers will make lemonade if necessary.


+2...it's tough when plans are made months in advance, but you go when you can sometimes.  I just hope it doesn't totally suck...


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## billski (Feb 25, 2009)

so let's play with the numbers.  We can make them say anything we want.
NWS is calling for (@stowe)

Tonight: *60% chance of snow*.
Thursday :40% chance of precip on thursday .  So that means *60% chance of no rain*.
Thurs nite: 20% chance of rain, OR  *80% chance of no rain*
Fri: *60% chance of snow*

If the weather blows through here quickly, that would make it even better, since we're just getting a "short" burst of warmth.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain


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## SKidds (Feb 25, 2009)

Ahhh, billski..........such the wishful thinker that he blinded himself to the *90% Chance Rain* (that's only 10% chance no rain) for FriDAY, and only saw the 60% chance of snow for Friday NIGHT.  Poor soul......................

I'd love to make the numbers work as well.  We were hoping to head to WF this weekend.  Fortunately, we don't have any ressies yet, so we aren't committed, but it would have been nice to get away.  We may still go.  The kids and wife will likely be fine on the groomers, although I was hoping for more for myself.  Perhaps at elevation the back end leaves more snow.  Now who's the wishful thinker....................


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## billski (Feb 25, 2009)

SKidds said:


> Ahhh, billski..........such the wishful thinker that he blinded himself to the *90% Chance Rain* (that's only 10% chance no rain) for FriDAY, and only saw the 60% chance of snow for Friday NIGHT.  Poor soul......................
> 
> I'd love to make the numbers work as well.  We were hoping to head to WF this weekend.  Fortunately, we don't have any ressies yet, so we aren't committed, but it would have been nice to get away.  We may still go.  The kids and wife will likely be fine on the groomers, although I was hoping for more for myself.  Perhaps at elevation the back end leaves more snow.  Now who's the wishful thinker....................



ewwww.  I missed that one.  Delusion sets in quickly after a powder day 36 hours ago. ...

maybe I'll go to Minnesota...*http://tinyurl.com/2qajks*


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## SKidds (Feb 25, 2009)

billski said:


> ewwww.  I missed that one....*http://tinyurl.com/2qajks*


Sorry to (ahem) rain....on your parade .


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## drjeff (Feb 25, 2009)

Time to put some positive vibes/spin to this.

*If* we get a storm full of NCP, it will help set up all the fluff that fell in the last week and make a perfect, and DEEPER base for all of the classic March  storms that will arrive very soon!


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## SKidds (Feb 25, 2009)

Nice thinking, although it would have been nice if it set up on Sunday night when March roars in like a Lion with the storm that may come up the coast.


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## hardline (Feb 25, 2009)

friday is not looking good. im suposed to go up on saturday night. may have to call an audible.


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## yaraj (Feb 25, 2009)

take advantage of it when you can! I missed a week of awesome conditions after ruining my ankle playing soccer only for a 2 week!!!!! plus long thaw to set in that's still here, closing down pretty much all resorts from 100% to very little in that short period. Finally snowed up north again to day so things MAY be looking up. Fingers crossed for you guys you dodge it!


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## psyflyer (Feb 26, 2009)

At Burke it started to snow about 30 minutes ago and we are supposed to get a couple of inches.  Hoping it will stay all snow, even though currently the temp is 29 on the mountain.  Looks nice so far!


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## lerops (Feb 26, 2009)

What will the primary impact of this be, loss of base or ice skiing for a weekend?


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## billski (Feb 26, 2009)

lerops said:


> What will the primary impact of this be, loss of base or ice skiing for a weekend?



Neither  Given the recent snowfall, no noticeable loss of base.  Ungroomed will be crust on top, wet, drain, then it gets cold and refreezes.  The groomers should be OK.  I'm a bit bummed cause I wanted to get the kids into the woods, we don't have many opportunities to do that as a family.
Bill


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## lerops (Feb 26, 2009)

Thanks Bill. I am thinking Gore this weekend.


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## freezorburn (Feb 26, 2009)

Fridays report For southern VT has gone from rain to snow then snow to rain 3X  on NOAA.GOV

They are not sure yet whats going to happen.


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## gladerider (Feb 26, 2009)

so, does that mean snow for mt. snow? considering that it's base is at ,what, 2000?


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## billski (Feb 26, 2009)

It means nothing.  Just wishful thinking.   My sis saw crocuses yesterday


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## gladerider (Feb 26, 2009)




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## billski (Feb 26, 2009)

gladerider said:


>


cheer up; we've got a lot of days ahead.  just you wait.  I'm only glummin' over this weekend and the family trip...


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## hardline (Feb 26, 2009)

im not to happy about this weather


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## gladerider (Feb 26, 2009)

i shouldn't complain about this season, but knowing snow just got 25" in the past several days it hurts that niar is going to spoil the perfect condition.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 27, 2009)

I'll be skiing in the rain this afternoon at Blue..should be some fast skiing tomorrow morning..good thing my Elans are sharp..


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## KingM (Feb 27, 2009)

It looks like it might not be quite as bad as earlier forecast. Yesterday they were saying 1/2" up here and now they're just saying light rain, ending this evening. Hopefully, we'll be spared a soaker and then just have one icy day before we get new snow.


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## billski (Feb 27, 2009)

KingM said:


> It looks like it might not be quite as bad as earlier forecast. Yesterday they were saying 1/2" up here and now they're just saying light rain, ending this evening. Hopefully, we'll be spared a soaker and then just have one icy day before we get new snow.


 
It is 36 degrees at the summit of STratton at 1030AM.:???:

Sigh.  That "one icy day" is the day I have all my green skiers on a family outing.....


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## KingM (Feb 27, 2009)

billski said:


> It is 36 degrees at the summit of STratton at 1030AM.:???:
> 
> Sigh.  That "one icy day" is the day I have all my green skiers on a family outing.....



Better that than your woods skiers from out west who you're trying to show off NE skiing to. The resorts will probably get their groomers out and make some lemonade out of all those greens.


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## billski (Feb 27, 2009)

60 degrees here in the flatlands.  Driving around with the windows down.  Snowpiles look like mudpuddles now.  
Heading north to the land of snow and ice in 4 hours...


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## eatskisleep (Feb 27, 2009)

Looks like the warmup is just in time for my spring break... any chance of cold returning and some snow by next week? I want to ski powder, I get bored with trails unless they are soft bumps.


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## pepperdawg (Feb 27, 2009)

Wind is screaming here (North/Central CT) right now


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 27, 2009)

Raining and 45 here in St J. :-? Hopefully this moves through quick. I'll probably skip skiing tomorrow and hit the slopes on Sunday.


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## skiadikt (Feb 27, 2009)

fwiw, killington's trail report has gone from 100% open to 72 trails. only groomed trails.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 27, 2009)

56 degrees here..


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## deadheadskier (Feb 27, 2009)

It was 63 in Boston today and the wind was so strong at one point it was cartoonish watching people fight to walk through it.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 27, 2009)

It looks like the start of the cold front is moving through..heavy rains and I'm sure there will be some Thunder and Lightning..


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## drjeff (Feb 27, 2009)

41 @ 10PM at my place at Mount Snow.  Wind relatively light right now (atmost 10mph), and the cloud/fog line looks to be basically even with the top of Canyon Quad/Ego Alley Triple/Nitro Quad which has moved up the hill since I arrived around 7PM.

No lights of cats visible on the hill yet - Most of the snowpack outside of myplace is intact, quite wet, but intact


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## Greg (Feb 27, 2009)

skiadikt said:


> fwiw, killington's trail report has gone from 100% open to 72 trails. only groomed trails.



Just got to Killington a while ago after a hellacious ride up. Normally a bit over 3 hours; took almost 5 after missing the turn on 100 in Ludlow. Traffic in Springfield and a lot of slow drivers in the heavy rain. Was pouring like a mofo when we got here. Looks like a FRGR day tomorrow. No pressure to leave Snowshed I guess. Tomorrow will be a day skiing with the kids.


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## Glenn (Feb 28, 2009)

drjeff said:


> Most of the snowpack outside of myplace is intact, quite wet, but intact



That's good news! Thanks for sharing Jeff. I was getting nervous. :???:


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## SnowRider (Feb 28, 2009)

Okemo still had lot's of snow today but it was firm. When I say firm I mean parts of the mountain weren't skiable. 

Groomers will be out in force tonight. Some snowguns were also firing up at the end of the day.


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