# The Official 1/15 (MLK Day) Storm Discussion Thread



## Greg (Jan 11, 2007)

The forecasts have been steadily improving and trending colder. Looking mostly snowy on Monday in the north country now. Feel free to discuss.


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## RIDEr (Jan 11, 2007)

The latest (which changes by the hour) for the Catskills is a mix on Saturday, cloudy on Sunday and rain on Monday.  I'll be spending Saturday at Belleayre... I was hoping to spend it at Plattekill, but they're not guaranteeing more than 3 trails open top to bottom.


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## Greg (Jan 11, 2007)

RIDEr said:


> The latest (which changes by the hour) for the Catskills is a mix on Saturday, cloudy on Sunday and rain on Monday.  I'll be spending Saturday at Belleayre... I was hoping to spend it at Plattekill, but they're not guaranteeing more than 3 trails open top to bottom.


I'm still seeing a mix Sat-Mon at Hunter:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/Ma...lat=41.912917&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=131&map.y=153

It'll be close. I'll be at Hunter on Monday regardless.


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## 2knees (Jan 11, 2007)

Brad Field, during the 6 o'clock news, (nbc affiliate WVIT) was predicting it to turn to snow even here in connecticut, 

but brad field is about as accurate as accuweather.  i was shocked to hear him say it though.


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## awf170 (Jan 11, 2007)

Forcast for the base of Wildcat.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/Ma...lat=43.935417&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=166&map.y=170

Looks okay I guess...


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## powderfreak (Jan 11, 2007)

*Most Significant Winter Storm of the Season on Monday*

Alright folks, trying to put together the pieces to get a column together
and while I want to wait till Saturday for a final forecast (48hrs lead time
is what I like for a final product), I'm trying to get something together
for a post tomorrow for those coming up over the holiday weekend.  Still
several details to work out, track and strength of the arctic air the main
problems at this juncture.  Thus, precip type is what I'm trying to sort
out.  I feel the total liquid precip for each area will be the easy part but
where it snows, sleets, ices, or rains is a tough call.  Here's my prelim
thinking and we are talking mostly a Monday event and possibly stretching
into Monday night.  Full effects will likely not be felt till Tuesday
morning at the mountains so if you're looking for powder, have MLK day off,
maybe watch this thing and make back up plans to call in sick on Tuesday if
it snows a foot:

My gut is telling me the 6" southern boundary runs from Gore Mountain to
Killington to Sunday River with sleet mixed in. Best shot at a 10-12"
snowfall would include Whiteface, SB, MRG, Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs, Jay,
Cannon, and Sugarloaf. Those should mix with sleet for a time with the
exception of Whiteface, Jay, and Sugarloaf which might be far enough north
to avoid the warm nose aloft when the low approaches. Personal experience
would lead me to believe the Green Mountain spine resorts see highest
snowfall especially if the low deepens as it passes. Model QPF might be low
but NNW flow behind the low can keep mod snow going for several hours along
the spine after deeper moisture has left the region. Another thing is some
of the GFS panels have been showing ripe conditions for some Champlain
Valley convergence behind the system...but haven't checked any lake
parameters for enhancement into northern Addison County (Sugarbush/MRG region). 
Either way, I think the northern spine picks up a couple more inches than modeled QPF would make
one believe.

Possibly significant icing occurs in the Saratoga/Lake George region of NY,
Mohawk Valley, northern Capital District, southern VT, northern Berkshires
west through the northern MA border and into southern NH.  Someone's going
to see marginally damaging ice out of this.

-Scott

ps: My weather column is located at...posts are irregular and correlated to snowfall chances...higher the chance of decent snow, higher the chance I'll be posting regularly.
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/index.php?name=News&catid=&topic=9


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## ALLSKIING (Jan 11, 2007)

Welcome powderfreak! Please continue here.

http://forums.alpinezone.com/12724-mlk-day-storm-speculation-thread.html


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## ALLSKIING (Jan 11, 2007)

awf170 said:


> Forcast for the base of Wildcat.
> 
> http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/Ma...lat=43.935417&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=166&map.y=170
> 
> Looks okay I guess...


Just ok?? Thats the best it has looked all season!


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## ALLSKIING (Jan 11, 2007)

I will be at Jiminy Sun afternoon and night and then Mt Snow Monday.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Jan 11, 2007)

Great post Scott....any long range speculations for the 20th weekend in the Stowe/Smuggs area??  Thought I saw a rumor of a potential Nor'easter for that time frame....


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## Greg (Jan 11, 2007)

ALLSKIING said:


> Welcome powderfreak! Please continue here.
> 
> http://forums.alpinezone.com/12724-mlk-day-storm-speculation-thread.html


I think Scott's post deserved to be part of this this thread vs. just a redirect, so I moved it in here...


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## ALLSKIING (Jan 11, 2007)

Greg said:


> I think Scott's post deserved to be part of this this thread vs. just a redirect, so I moved it in here...


My bad I acted before I fully read the post.


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## ajl50 (Jan 11, 2007)

Scott is the best forecaster around for the north east. Really talented and takes his time and gets his forecasts right. HOWEVER I think he, like all forecasters, would like to take a mea culpa on the 12/26 wiff. 
So for him to come back with this forecast after the last big one busted means something. 
Great to have link or whatever...


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## 2knees (Jan 11, 2007)

powderfreak, thanks for taking the time to post that.  Its absolutely awesome.  please feel free to drop some more beta in here from time to time. :smile:


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## Marc (Jan 11, 2007)

I will be outside walking backwards shouting "WONS" repeatedly.


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## loafer89 (Jan 11, 2007)

The blocking ridge of high pressure looks to remain in place for at least the next week out west, keeping the cold air coming in to our area from Canada. At least all of New England will have excellent snowmaking weather next week.


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## powderfreak (Jan 12, 2007)

ajl50 said:


> Scott is the best forecaster around for the north east. Really talented and takes his time and gets his forecasts right. HOWEVER I think he, like all forecasters, would like to take a mea culpa on the 12/26 wiff.
> So for him to come back with this forecast after the last big one busted means something.
> Great to have link or whatever...



You're right.  Man did that one hurt.  I forecast for myself and share the details...I went to the Adirondacks where I thought it would be ground zero and we got 4" followed by a lot of freezing rain then plain rain.  It was ulgy.  I was thinkin 8-12" there, too.

Anyway, feeling pretty comfortable about this one though there's still a significant spread in the temp possibilities.  Albany and adjacent areas of southern VT, northern Berkshires, and even the Catskills could be the battle ground if this goes any further south.  Thinking max snowfall is on a latitude boundary of Rutland and the US/Canadian border after viewing tonight's model data.  Will be interesting to see how the NWS offices around the region handle this in their overnight discussions and forecasts.

I've been asked several times about the storm possibly near the 20th and it is a possibility though small chance this far out.  I'm certainly focusing on the upcoming impact of this next storm.  With that said, arctic air will be in place so snowmaking will be able to run 24/7 all the way to West Virginia next week.  And its going to be the good snowmaking that's done at 15F during the daytime with crews not needing a lot of compressed air to tap the full water supplies.  Look for a lot more guns going than we've seen all season as the air compressors will not be limiting them as much anymore.


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## TwinTips21 (Jan 12, 2007)

Scott- I noticed the possibility of a few storms coming up the coast throughtout the next two weeks. When looking at the gfs runs, the storms tend be south and east but is it true that the gfs usually has a south-east bias?


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## bvibert (Jan 12, 2007)

Thanks for taking the time to post that here Scott!


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## powderfreak (Jan 12, 2007)

TwinTips21 said:


> Scott- I noticed the possibility of a few storms coming up the coast throughtout the next two weeks. When looking at the gfs runs, the storms tend be south and east but is it true that the gfs usually has a south-east bias?


******************************
EDIT: Mods, sorry about the graphic size...its just the way it is on the website.  I wasn't sure if it would fit the normal text box or expand it but it looks like it expanded it.  Sorry for that but I wanted to post those model snowfall differences to illustrate the sharp cut-off to the south.  I know it is extremely annoying to read a post that you have to scroll left and right to read.
******************************
Yes, it is to some extent.  That's also the reason why I don't buy quite the southward push of the GFS with this storm on Monday.  If we were to verify with the GFS, the significant snowfall would be pushed 50 miles south of where I have outlined above.  In other words, it would look like this map, which is the GFS's version of snowfall accumulation's for Monday's storm.  You see most of VT and NH are covered in 8" or greater snowfall.  The Green Mountain spine is easily seen with the 10" gradient stretching from Jay Peak to Mount Snow. 







Now, I don't think this is correct but I'm sure many would love to check out this site:
http://www.wxcaster.com//regional_snowfall.htm
Its easily to understand if you take a few minutes and scroll through it.  There are multiple models (NAM, WRF, and GFS) and they are all run on different grid sizes, with the GFS being the largest.  The local WRF and NAM have smaller grid sizes and therefore can pick out differences in the topography better.  The NAM has the main snow belt staying at Killington northward while the GFS would crush southern VT.  Here's the NAM run this morning:






Now, this is only through 12z/7amEST on Monday with snowfall continuing through the day on Monday.  Looking back towards the Chicago area, you can see a larger are of 8-14" of snow and that's likely what the max zone will see (no changes to my forecast, 6-12" with the chance of slightly higher in the maximum snowfall region). But you can easily pick out how this model has the fire-hose of snow a few counties northward of the GFS. 

The battle zone is going to be in that latitudinal area with a sharp cut-off as you head south.  With one American model showing 0" of snow for a place like Mount Snow and another American model showing 10", that's a tough forecast.  What happens in the Plains over the next day will be vital to seeing if areas further south, even into Albany's Capital District and the RT2 corridor in MA, can get appreciable snow.  But remember, what you're not seeing on those charts is ice.  That sharp snowfall gradient would include a mix with ice for those who see less than 6" on the southern end, and significant icing near where the 1" or less snowfall area is and up to 50 miles south of that.  Makes sense right?

So I have a pretty decent idea on my overall forecast, and it remains unchanged from my first post.  Band of 6-12" is going to stretch from west to east across the northeast at some latitude.  Just south of there, a sharp gradient will exist with snow/sleet mix, then south of that sleet/freezing rain, then further south significant (possibly damaging) freezing rain.  Personally, a few inches of sleet isn't that bad as it provides a really dense base but can make roads extremely dangerous (more so than freezing rain, contrary to popular belief).  With today's salting, they can raise the road temp enough so rain doesn't freezing on pavement, at least in areas that see regular traffic while 1-2" of sleet is like driving on ice marbles.  Freezing rain has the highest impact on bringing down branches and causing scattered power outages as trees get weighed down (especially the evergreens). 

Since Stowe is my home mountain, that's where I'll be heading, but I'm getting this feeling that this is going to be either a Killington special or a Sugarbush/MRG special.  Personally, I'd head to the Mad River Valley to be sure, but Gore Mountain in the Adirondacks would also be advisable.  The reason I'm also saying the more western mountains might get better snow is that in my experience, while the White Mountain resorts in NH and also Sunday River/Sugarloaf in Maine will see 6"+, this is not a coastal storm, the best moisture is going to have to move across the Adirondacks, then Greens, before it gets to NH and ME.  Some Atlantic moisture could work its way into the storm as it nears the Gulf of Maine after tracking through southern/central New England, so it could all even out.  With nor'easters I usually keep the heaviest snowfall from the Green Mountain spine eastward and favor Cannon, Wildcat, and Sugarloaf...but with this sort of situation I'd favor the Green Mountain spine westward.  

Remember, this is mostly a Monday storm and the best skiing will likely be on Tuesday after it can get groomed out (if that's your thing) or on Tuesday morning when Patrols can check out the new snow and drop ropes.   Nothing wrong with storm skiing on Monday (heck, I'll be out there), but I'm also planning on skiing on Tuesday as that's when you might see trail numbers increase.

Wind does not look to be a large factor with this storm so I see no impact to lift operations (ie. wind holds so your left with a day of skiing the beginner double like we often see at the big resorts during storms).

I'm heading off to take a few runs on Mount Mansfield but will be back with more this evening.  Take care!  Hope this all isn't too vague, and let me know if you want more meteorology talk or just my thoughts in plain English.  :grin:


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## powderfreak (Jan 12, 2007)

Also, if you don't have this site bookmarked already, you might want to:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

Its the Hydro Prediction Center's snow/ice probability forecasts and they generally do a good job from what I've seen...though usually conservative as they are mostly forecasting for populated regions like the NWS offices.  They dont really consider, nor forecast for, what will happen above 2,000ft as very few people live above that elevation in the northeast.
I use this stuff for more of a tool to forecast as you need to sort of read between the lines with them...use the boundaries as a general idea of where heavy snow will fall.

But I like that their forecast is generally in line with mine as far as the zone for max snowfall.  This is also through only 12z or 7am on Monday so they have a low probability of 4" or greater by that time.  Since they only forecast 3 days out, by 5pm tonight they'll have the snowfall probabilities out for 7pm on Monday which will give a much better idea as that 12hr period is when the max snow will fall.

Just another illustration of where you might want to put yourself for Monday/Tuesday:


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## Greg (Jan 12, 2007)

powderfreak said:


> ******************************
> EDIT: Mods, sorry about the graphic size...its just the way it is on the website.  I wasn't sure if it would fit the normal text box or expand it but it looks like it expanded it.  Sorry for that but I wanted to post those model snowfall differences to illustrate the sharp cut-off to the south.  I know it is extremely annoying to read a post that you have to scroll left and right to read.
> ******************************



No worries. I uploaded the two images to our gallery and re-embedded the smaller version. The gallery will auto resize to 1024 with a 800 pixel intermediary. Feel free to use your member gallery or simply use the file attachment feature.

Thanks for continuing with the updates, Scott!


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## Greg (Jan 12, 2007)

Based on Scott's confidence that this thing will go down, I promoted this thread to "official storm discussion thread" status...


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## ALLSKIING (Jan 12, 2007)

Greg said:


> Based on Scott's confidence that this thing will go down, I promoted this thread to "official storm discussion thread" status...


I think this is the first one of the year:blink:


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## Greg (Jan 12, 2007)

The MRG Weather Blog supports a lot of what Scott says:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

It's coming, folks!


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## nelsapbm (Jan 12, 2007)

I feel a case of ski-itis coming on....May have to call in on Tuesday!


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## Grassi21 (Jan 12, 2007)

nelsapbm said:


> I feel a case of ski-itis coming on....May have to call in on Tuesday!



I'm thinking the same thing...


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## JimG. (Jan 12, 2007)

Hey hey, welcome aboard powderfreak!

Scott does a great job with his forecasts...I think mostly because he forecasts for his own skiing. 

Really glad to see you here.


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## Sheik Yerbouti (Jan 12, 2007)

nelsapbm said:


> I feel a case of ski-itis coming on....May have to call in on Tuesday!



Knew I was going to be sick on wednesday sometime back in Dec.. ;-)


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## thetrailboss (Jan 12, 2007)

FWIW WDEV in VT is saying maybe, MAYBE 10-12" of snow!!!!!!!!


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## highpeaksdrifter (Jan 12, 2007)

thetrailboss said:


> FWIW WDEV in VT is saying maybe, MAYBE 10-12" of snow!!!!!!!!



Wouldn't it be nice if this was one of those deals where they forcast a foot, but the storm moves slower then they thought and we get a monster 2 feet + pounding? I know I'm being greedy, but just sayin.


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## klrskiah (Jan 12, 2007)

wow, fantastic post powderfreak, thanks for sharing!

hmm after looking at the latest models im a little worried because im going to be at sugarloaf monday, it looks like things are going to come in waves, and most of the precip mainly stays south of sugarloaf until monday night?? or maybe i have no idea what im talking about!   thoughts...


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## Greg (Jan 12, 2007)

highpeaksdrifter said:


> Wouldn't it be nice if this was one of those deals where they forcast a foot, but the storm moves slower then they thought and we get a monster 2 feet + pounding? I know I'm being greedy, but just sayin.



Sheesh, HPD. Just be happy it's white and not wet!


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## skicone (Jan 12, 2007)

Outstanding post, Powderfreak. Keep up the good work.


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## Justin10 (Jan 12, 2007)

> Special Weather Statement
> National Weather Service Gray Me
> 352 Pm Est Fri Jan 12 2007
> 
> ...



NWS @ Gray, ME - Following the trend of the storm heading south
NWS @ Burlington, VT - Still expecting northern areas to get heavy snows


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## SkiDog (Jan 12, 2007)

EXCUSE ME MODS.....AHEM.......I think with the bad weather we've been experiencing this winter we should refrain from "storm discussion" threads as they only have the potential to piss off Ullr. 

I suggest for the remainder of the current season we put a "ban" on "storm discussion" threads...

Thank you for your anticipated cooperation in this VERY sensitive matter...

;-)

M


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## KingM (Jan 12, 2007)

Greg said:


> Sheesh, HPD. Just be happy it's white and not wet!



Or worse, as we've seen over the last fifteen months, where they predict big snows and it turns out to be either nothing or NCP. This one is starting to look like the real deal. We should know for sure by tomorrow.


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## Big Game (Jan 12, 2007)

Yep. Putting the snows on tomorrow.


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## powderfreak (Jan 12, 2007)

klrskiah said:


> wow, fantastic post powderfreak, thanks for sharing!
> 
> hmm after looking at the latest models im a little worried because im going to be at sugarloaf monday, it looks like things are going to come in waves, and most of the precip mainly stays south of sugarloaf until monday night?? or maybe i have no idea what im talking about!   thoughts...



Still uncertainty in the models and one thing I've had in the back of my head is that the European model has been keeping the system further north than the American models this entire time.  It has trended slightly further south than it was 2 days ago, but it keeps the axis of heaviest snows north of where the GFS and NAM have it.  The Euro was correct on the Dec 26 bust of mine when I followed the American models fully, and I really don't think the GFS's current scenario makes sense with the limited precipitation to the north.  I'm sticking with 6" all the way to the US/Canadian border at this time and I believe the uncertainty with the max snow zone possibly making a last minute move to the north is why BTV still thinks its entire area will receive heavy snow.  Needless to say, the American models are the furthest south with this system so I cannot see it going further south than where they have it now.  

I like a blend of the NAM and EURO which targets the heaviest snow across central NY, central VT, up through Sunday River.  Sugarloaf, Jay Peak, Stowe and Smuggs will likely be on the northern side of the precip but remember, the air will be colder, there will be little to no mixing of precip types, and ratios will be higher.  I do think we see an enhanced band north of the main precip zone, as we usually see in these events, and it often follows the -10C isotherm at 850mb.  This is usually where the best snow growth zone is and if it comes together there's the chance that we have the main area of max snowfall run from say Gore Mountain, NY to Killington/Sugarbush region in VT, and across central NH...just north of that we have a drop off in snowfall but then north of that, we have a quasi-deformation band that enhances snowfall even though liquid equivalents are lower...north of that band (say just north of the Canadian border), snowfall amounts drop off drastically in a very small spatial distance.

Hope that makes sense, I'm going to have a final forecast out tomorrow afternoon or early evening...roughly 48 hours is what I like for a final forecast product but I'll be skiing at least through noon tomorrow.  When I get back I'll put out the final product with accumulations map and all.


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## billski (Jan 12, 2007)

*oooh oooh*

say, uh, boss, I'm not feeling so well.  The weather doesn't look none too good for drivin'....
Well, I'll just lay low and drink a lot of fluids.
.....
tick
....
tick
...
tick
,,
tick
.
Hello Bud?  meet me at the market at 5AM?  We gots a trip to do.  Who's got the coffee?  Shoot, I forgot to wax....



(well, I can't say this story has played out many times this year.  at least not enuf for the boss to get suspicious.)

Disclaimer: my boss is a more rabid skier than I.  Any excuse will suffice....


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## klrskiah (Jan 12, 2007)

thanks for the response pow!, still some variables i guess, hopefully by tomorrow it will be more clear, but im still at sugarloaf regardless so i guess it dosent really matter,  it was a shock this morning to see the models shafting us big time.... but i honestly wasn't surprised,  i sure hope the euro is right.  the way this winter is going it'll probably bomb out in the gulf of maine, i mean it seems like every storm has flipped at like 48 hours out!:-?  hey i'll gladly take 3-6 inches, anything really at this point....

think lots of


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## ajl50 (Jan 12, 2007)

if tuesday = powerday then being stuck in hoboken = frozen turd.


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## powderfreak (Jan 12, 2007)

klrskiah said:


> thanks for the response pow!, still some variables i guess, hopefully by tomorrow it will be more clear, but im still at sugarloaf regardless so i guess it dosent really matter,  it was a shock this morning to see the models shafting us big time.... but i honestly wasn't surprised,  i sure hope the euro is right.  the way this winter is going it'll probably bomb out in the gulf of maine, i mean it seems like every storm has flipped at like 48 hours out!:-?  hey i'll gladly take 3-6 inches, anything really at this point....
> 
> think lots of



Yeah, man...take what you can get!  That's the motto of this winter...heck, I dont even really care how much it snows, just as long as its not a 50F rain again.  I'm more excited to have a winter storm just to track and forecast as this winter has been tough for skiers and riders, but us winter weather forecasters are also bored out of our minds; we wait all summer for the ability to forecast something more interesting than rain and so far we've got not much to go with.  Its another reason why I think so many people (myself included) busted badly on the Dec26 storm because we all jumped the gun and were just too excited all around.  This will be the real deal for someone.

-Scott


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## Greg (Jan 12, 2007)

Thanks again for the continued updates, Scott!


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## ctenidae (Jan 13, 2007)

NOAA forecasts seem to be trending more towards the NCP side. Hope they're just being conservative.


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## KingM (Jan 13, 2007)

For Southern NE Ctenidae? We're still showing all snow in the Mad River Valley, at least, although the high temp is about 30, so adding a few degrees as you went south would change this over, unfortunately.

We got some NCP last night and that damned green grass poked through again. 

It's now snowing lightly, although it hasn't yet started to stick. I imagine it's sticking nicely on the mountain, though. Hopefully, we'll see white again by this evening.


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## 2knees (Jan 13, 2007)

ctenidae said:


> NOAA forecasts seem to be trending more towards the NCP side. Hope they're just being conservative.



huh?  

TEMP PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...
EXCEPT RUTLAND/WINDSOR PORTION. PROXIMITY OF WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR
COULD LEAD TO SOME SLEET FORMATION...SO WENT WITH SNOW/SLEET MIX.

00Z NAM WAS AN OUTLIER IN TRYING TO RETURN THE SURFACE FRONT AND
RESULTING WARMER AIR AND MIXED PRECIP FURTHERN NORTH. HOWEVER
GFS...ENSEMBLES...AND ECMWF ALL SUPPORT FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. I
BELIEVE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS UNDERDONE BY THE
NAM...AND WILL ACT TO KEEP COLDER TEMPS AND STATIONARY FRONT
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH.

So it sleets in rutland at 600 feet but it sounds like even killington, which sits roughly at 2000 (bear base and above) should be primarily snow.  And north of that, no mention of any ncp.


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## adamti91 (Jan 13, 2007)

Here's the latest from CBS 6 [WRGB] out of Albany for today through Sunday night. Doesn't look good for the Catskills or massachusetts, but northern Vermont and the Adirondacks look like they could benefit from this. Hopefully temp. outlooks will drop and the snow line will move south below Ulster county.







No map for Monday yet, but here's what CBS 6 meteorologist Mike Tamas has to say:

"Monday: A mixture of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain throughout the region.
Precipitation could be heavy at times.
Significant snow and ice accumulations possible. 
High: Near 30°"

You can check the map and forecast for updates here, and I will try to post updates as they come.

ABC 10 [WTEN], also out of Albany, has similar projections through Sunday afternoon:






You can see WTEN's weather page here.

Hopefully both stations will have maps for Monday up sometime today.


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## ctenidae (Jan 13, 2007)

I was looking as far north as Lincoln, NH last night, and it looked like a mix of rain/snow, leaning more towards rain. They changed it overnight, though, to a much happier:

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL TAP THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH AND BRING
SNOW DURING MONDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE MOST
PRECIPITATION TO FALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WITH 6 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW POSSIBLE...LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH.


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## Greg (Jan 13, 2007)

Looks like those of us in SNE and SNY are going to just have to take one for the team. At least NNE/ADKs will get some decent snow.


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## adamti91 (Jan 13, 2007)

No accumulation map updates, but this was just added to the WRGB weather page [out of Albany]:

"A pattern change is underway that will bring much colder air to the Northeast and a long period of wintry precipitation beginning late tonight and continuing at times through Tuesday morning. A cold front, accompanied by a period of rain into this morning, will settle south of New York and New England by by late afternoon. Cold air will initially filter in at the surface, while temperatures aloft remain mild, setting the stage for an icy mix of precipitation. A weak disturbance will ride along the front late tonight through early afternoon tomorrow bringing periods of mixed snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Slick travel conditions will likely result on Sunday, especially across the Adirondacks into Vermont where the precipitation mode will lean more towards all snow, as this disturbance moves through. After a break in the weather later tomorrow and early tomorrow night, a larger storm is expected to bring another round of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain to the region, with a cooling atmosphere through the event and a changeover to all snow region wide Monday night into Tuesday morning as the storm moves away. Significant snow and/or ice accumulations appear possible with the storm on Monday and Monday night likely causing hazardous travel throughout the Northeast.. "

I'll try to post new accumulation maps as soon as they are available from various television stations.


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## KingM (Jan 13, 2007)

What does *significant* mean anyway? Several inches? A couple of feet. It's all good, of course, but a big dump followed by long-term cold should mean we're off and running for a good, long stretch. Six inches, however, ain't gonna open Castle Rock


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## zamboniman (Jan 13, 2007)

*Winter Cold is Here....*

In Ontario boyz, it went from being 6 degrees Celsius yesterday to -10 today, the resorts are making snow like crazy, they are calling for a storm tonight, and tomorrow.  SO hopefully you guys get it this week, it definitly feels like winter up here today, i havent been out once, got this week off and hoping to get to try out the new boards i bought back in November.

Hope you guys freeze your asses off and get dumped on.

Good Luck

Zamboniman out.


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## loafer89 (Jan 13, 2007)

Well so far it looks like the front went through Southern/Central Vermont with mostly light rain as reported by Mount Snow and the morning temperatures at Okemo at 7am where base: 46F and summit:39F and now the temperature is falling.

NOAA is forcasting a long duration light snow event with no more than 9" in any 24 hour period for tommorow night/monday:

THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOW EVENT...BUT DON`T THINK
WE`LL EXCEED THE 9 INCHES IN 24 HOURS TO QUALIFY FOR A WATCH.
HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY IN UPCOMING SHIFTS AS
THE EVENT APPROACHES THE 1ST/2ND PERIOD IN THE FORECAST.

We are heading up to Okemo on sunday and the decision to stay for the night has not yet been made.


----------



## klrskiah (Jan 13, 2007)

> Saturday, January 13, 2007
> 8-15 inches of snow and a little sleet from MLK storm
> 
> MLK storm details
> ...


----------



## kingslug (Jan 13, 2007)

Well, all this means to me is no skiing this weekend. Freezing rain and MLK traffic do not mix well. Sux living on Long Island. But I amm booking a trip to Mount Snow for next weekend. Can't beat $80.00 bus and lift ticket.


----------



## TwinTips21 (Jan 13, 2007)

Scott, whats the 12z model runs telling you at this point? Another 2 hours and 45 minutes until the 18z!


----------



## JD (Jan 13, 2007)

STOWEked!


----------



## TwinTips21 (Jan 13, 2007)

Winter Storm Watches have been in effect, Forgot to post it earlier but I am now.


----------



## Justin10 (Jan 13, 2007)

TwinTips21 said:


> Winter Storm Watches have been in effect, Forgot to post it earlier but I am now.



  


Sort of a side note, but has anyone else noticed that the Burlington NWS office is more agressive in issuing statements, advisories, and watches etc. than the Gray, ME one?  Right now most of vermont is under the winter storm watch, but NH is not.  Not the first time it has happened.  I can also remember the Dec. 26th storm where it happened.  Not really a big deal, just something I seemed to notice recently. Anyone else realize that?


----------



## tcharron (Jan 13, 2007)

Justin10 said:


> Sort of a side note, but has anyone else noticed that the Burlington NWS office is more agressive in issuing statements, advisories, and watches etc. than the Gray, ME one?  Right now most of vermont is under the winter storm watch, but NH is not.  Not the first time it has happened.  I can also remember the Dec. 26th storm where it happened.  Not really a big deal, just something I seemed to notice recently. Anyone else realize that?



The NH office obviously ski, and have just plain given up, and are playing cards and 'Ski Resort Extreme'.


----------



## JD (Jan 13, 2007)

Yes.  I almost posted a "beware of the holiday weekend" message, but figured I would get heckled as some sort of left wing conspiracy nut.  (even though I believe in said conspiracy in this case, I feel being labled as a nut is just going too far)


----------



## TwinTips21 (Jan 13, 2007)

They also haven't issued anything yet because they are further east meaning the storm is a little further out for them. Also the green mountain spine usually gets pounded more than NH and ME,.


----------



## tcharron (Jan 13, 2007)

I'm hearing most of NH is ice and sleet, and not so much on the snow side.


----------



## adamti91 (Jan 13, 2007)

WTEN out of Albany has an outlook that leaves the Catskills right on the snow line. The ice and sleet on previous maps has seemed to turn to snow north of the Hudson Valley however.


----------



## MarkC (Jan 13, 2007)

Greg said:


> Looks like those of us in SNE and SNY are going to just have to take one for the team. At least NNE/ADKs will get some decent snow.



F*ck that. I have had it with this winter.  ULLR you are offically on notice.  You and me are going to have words pal.  :uzi:


----------



## adamti91 (Jan 13, 2007)

I think the maps in the old posts update automatically, but I'll post the new ones in new posts so you don't have to scroll through the pages to find it. A new map through Sunday from WRGB out of Albany. No word on a Monday map yet, but I expect the snow and ice lines to both drop into the Hudson Valley.


----------



## awf170 (Jan 13, 2007)

tcharron said:


> I'm hearing most of NH is ice and sleet, and not so much on the snow side.




You're right.  But the only part of NH that matter at all IMO is Cannon and Wildcat and they will get dumped on.   Just kidding, I bet places like Crotched will get some sleet and mix monday morning but I got a feeling they will end up with about 6 inches.  Tuesday is the day to go.


----------



## adamti91 (Jan 14, 2007)

Latest dopplar radar stills... the precipitation is moving in...

WRGB [Albany]:






This image updates every few minutes, so check back here to get the latest dopplar image.

AccuWeather.com is reporting a much more widespread snow area, but for sunday not monday. Good news!


----------



## powderfreak (Jan 14, 2007)

*SUNDAY MORNING THOUGHTS*

Haven't seen Burlington's NWS Homepage look so nice in a while...
http://tinyurl.com/yl5c2b
And on that note, it looks like the Gray, ME NWS office is out to lunch and
I cannot figure out why they do not have winter storm watches up yet while
the Buffalo, Binghamton, Albany, and Burlington offices all have warnings up
already.  I understand their reasoning in that they are unsure if the winter storm warning criteria will be met as this is a long duration event and I think its 7" in 12 hours or 9" in 24 hours to verify a warning.  With that said, the precipitation tomorrow looks to snow at a good clip in NH and ME throughout the afternoon and well into the night.  The National Headquarters and Hydro Prediction Center has the entire northern tier of New England and New York in a high risk for 4-8" of snow tomorrow, a moderate risk of 8-12", and a low risk of 12"+ and they are usually conservative.  I just don't think those living or skiing in NH and ME are getting the right message by the NWS not issuing anything at this point (basically 24hrs pre-storm and its snowing now with the first wave); they should have at least thrown a Watch up and from there they can decide later if they want to upgrade to a warning or go with an advisory.  It just doesn't jive with what surrounding offices have...BTV full on winter storm warnings, same with ALB, and south of GYX's area, BOX has issued Advisories for its southern NH and northern MA counties.

Just looks like GYX is out of the loop...don't be discouraged NH/ME skiers...considering most everyone else (myself included) feels areas adjacent to VT will see significant snow in the north, snow and sleet in the central region and sleet/freezing rain/rain in southern and coastal sections...mountains like Cannon, Wildcat, Sunday River, and Sugarloaf will not be left out.  Here's the HPC Snow Graphic for tomorrow and you can see that region will fall in the same category with whatever happens across BTV's counties.






EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THIS MORNING:
Look for a general 1-3" today across the board, tapering off around 1pm
before the main storm moves in between 7am-10am tomorrow morning and
snowfall rates will quickly pick up and most areas north of Glens
Falls-Rutland-Lebanon should be averaging 1"/hr from late morning through
the afternoon with mod/light snowfall then persisting from 4pm-1am across
the Green Mountain spine.  During the day tomorrow, I agree with the NWS
forecast of 4-8 falling by evening and then another 1-3" most lower
elevation spots but high res models indicate upslope/orographic snowfall
could add another 2-4" south of I-89 and 3-5" north of I-89 tomorrow night.

Some Discussion:
Our favorite government agency is calling for 8-10" of snow with "higher
amounts over the higher terrain."  Yesterday's 12z NAM snowfall forecast was
likely over-done but was showing 6-10" in the greater Burlington area with a
bullseye of 15-18" along the Green Mountain Spine running from Sugarbush to
Jay Peak...with another area of that same maximum range in the vicinity of
Sugarloaf, ME.  And after looking over last night's model data, total
precipitation amounts have steadily been increasing over northern Vermont
such as this sequence for Burlington (all snow):
NAM
18z...0.72" L.E. 
00z...0.80" L.E.
06z...0.92" L.E.
GFS
18z...0.60" L.E.
00z...0.75" L.E.
06z...0.85" L.E.

One can see a trend here and now, as we are closing in, the American models
are amazingly close with total precip amounts per the BTV data and both show
all snow north of I-89 for 100% of the event.

Taken verbatim, at medium density or a 10:1 ratio that's 9" of snow in the
valley.  The warm layer aloft between 5,000ft and 9,000ft only gets to -4C
at BTV with best lift in the atmosphere occurring with temps between -10C to
-15C which is close to where you want it for dendrite flakes.  My only
concern is the -4C layer and I'm having trouble figuring out what our main
snowflake is going to be.  The -4 is usually needles but higher up in the
clouds this thing should be producing some big dendrites. especially for the
last third of the storm as deeper cold air replaces the warm layer and when
liquid amounts might not be too great but we go from seeing a 12:1 ratio to
a 20< to 1 ratio fluff on Monday evening with wrap around. 

With all this said, I think it would be best to say with a 12:1 ratio for
3/4ths of this event and then the final 1/4th bump ratios up to 20/25 to
1...additionally, I like the trend for more precip, especially snow now that
looks to become heavy at times on Monday from 7am-7pm, but will go with
probably around .6" L.E. in the CPV yielding the same 8-10" as the NWS
forecast...BUT in the MTNS...

The two main mountain data points the models extract data for are the
Morrisville-Stowe Airport and Montpelier-Barre Airport...the GFS and NAM
have both of those locations with 1.0-1.3" of L.E. which is a very healthy
snowfall at even 10 or 12 to 1 ratios.  Looking into the mountains, I've got
one bullseye showing up right over the Sugarbush/MRG area at 1.52" predicted
and the entire Green Mountain spine from Addison County to the Canadian
border comes in at >1.25" L.E. when all is said and done; thus the 15-18"
some models predicted yesterday.  Without seeing the true storm yet, I'm
going to stick with 6-12" as a forecast from Killington to Jay Peak and
across all of the Adirondacks, northern half of NH, and up through
Sugarloaf.  However, if the latest multiple model runs are correct, those
numbers would need to be bumped upwards.

I would greatly appreciate any running snowfall totals if you are not out
skiing in the next two days... 

-Scott


NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
 SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
 WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
 WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
 CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
 EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...
 STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...
 LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...
 GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
 ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
 MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
 ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
 424 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007

 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
 EST TUESDAY...

 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
 STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
 EST TUESDAY...FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT.
 THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

 AFTER LIGHT SNOW TODAY...ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS
 NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT BEGINNING
 TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
 PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY SNOW...SOME SLEET MAY
 BRIEFLY MIX WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
 TO SNOW SHOWERS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

 THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WHEN 4 TO
 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8
 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

 STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
 SITUATION.


----------



## ajl50 (Jan 14, 2007)

scott- just consitantly excellent coverage...thanks for all the hard work. 
By the way- where was that lost ski area you checked out over the holidays- you posted about it but i couldn't figure out the directions- it was in the adk's right?


----------



## adamti91 (Jan 14, 2007)

New page, new dopplar from WRGB out of Albany:






Updates automatically. Precipitation is starting north, north-west of Albany, not sure if it's snow or not though.


----------



## JD (Jan 14, 2007)

Snowing in Stowe....1"-2" down in town.


----------



## KingM (Jan 14, 2007)

About the same in the MRV, as well. It was heavy for awhile, but right now it's a light, but steady snow.


----------



## adamti91 (Jan 14, 2007)

Monday map!!! Looking GREAT for the Adirondacks, and probably northern Vermont, not so much for Massachusetts or Catskills, but hopefully the higher altitudes will get some snow. [WTEN from Albany]


----------



## TwinTips21 (Jan 14, 2007)

Freezing raining at okemo. Not a god sign at all!!!!


----------



## tcharron (Jan 14, 2007)

TwinTips21 said:


> Freezing raining at okemo. Not a god sign at all!!!!



Down the road from Crotched, it's already got a think coating of ice.  :-(  Not too bad, groomers can easy convert it to something skiable, but who knows what will happen tonight.


----------



## KingM (Jan 14, 2007)

I'm sorry about the southern resorts, but Sugarbush is already claiming 5" of snow and today is the light snow day. :beer:


----------



## skibum9995 (Jan 14, 2007)

Burke is also reporting 5" so far today.


----------



## Striker678 (Jan 14, 2007)

Looks like poor conditions all day monday for the Berkshires of MA, on weatherunderground


----------



## TwinTips21 (Jan 15, 2007)

Well now that the storm has started lets start hearing some of your OBS.


----------



## tcharron (Jan 15, 2007)

TwinTips21 said:


> Well now that the storm has started lets start hearing some of your OBS.



The great weathermaker hates us?  :-D

Bennington area, pure ice.


----------



## nelsapbm (Jan 15, 2007)

It's absolutely dumping up here. Not much yet...maybe a couple of inches, but we're forcasted for 6-10. If it keeps up like this, I don't doubt it.


----------



## tcharron (Jan 15, 2007)

Ewwwww.  Just read, Southern NH continues freezing rain, changing to rain till late in the day, when cold air comes in and turns it to snow..

God I can't imagine what Crotched gonna look like.  Some kind of sick ice sleet balogna sandwich?


----------



## Sheik Yerbouti (Jan 15, 2007)

Anyone seeing any real snow around Okemo or Stratton?


----------



## TwinTips21 (Jan 15, 2007)

The okemo cam looks like some snow but i still see a lot of grass!


----------



## from_the_NEK (Jan 15, 2007)

Moderate snow fall rate here in St. Johnsbury. 1-2 inches already this morning on top of the fluffy 4 inches that fell yesterday :grin: :grin: 

Having to be responsible a go to work today and tomorrow = :angry: :flame: :angry:  :uzi: :roll:


----------



## Phildozer (Jan 15, 2007)

It is absolutely pouring here in Central Massachusetts.  The temperature has consistantly been between 32.0 and 32.4 for the last 10 hours.

Mother Nature, this isn't funny anymore.


----------



## TwinTips21 (Jan 15, 2007)

Can someone around okemo, killington, bromley, snow, give us some observations. This is the gray area with this storm.


----------



## Sheik Yerbouti (Jan 15, 2007)

Dammit. For some reason, I can't pull down any live cams at work. Using Firefox, and could use IE6 if I _had_ to ;-)


----------



## TwinTips21 (Jan 15, 2007)

Im using firefox and they are working fine. Do you have all the plugins? Is your java updated?


----------



## Sheik Yerbouti (Jan 15, 2007)

TwinTips21 said:


> Im using firefox and they are working fine. Do you have all the plugins? Is your java updated?



Loon works fine, just can't see Okemo, java's up to date. Flash is current. we don't have the best connection here at work so...


----------



## TwinTips21 (Jan 15, 2007)

Yea I have the same problem at school, really crappy server.

Anyway, from radar estimates, it looks definite that Stowe, Sugarbush, Jay Peak, and Whiteface will be the winner with this storm. Suprise, suprise.


----------



## TwinTips21 (Jan 15, 2007)

It also looks like the base of killington will only see about 2-4 instead of the 6-10  they were hoping for. DECEMBER 26th FLASHBACKS ENSUE!


----------



## from_the_NEK (Jan 15, 2007)

Snow has given way to sleet in St. Johnsbury. :angry: :angry:  still in the low 20's. 3 inches accumulated so far.


----------



## Marc (Jan 15, 2007)

from_the_NEK said:


> Snow has given way to sleet in St. Johnsbury. :angry: :angry:  still in the low 20's. 3 inches accumulated so far.



Isn't the front with this system a cold front?  Is it supposed to change back to snow?


----------



## from_the_NEK (Jan 15, 2007)

Marc said:


> Isn't the front with this system a cold front?  Is it supposed to change back to snow?



Looking at the radar loop the precipitation looks like it is only going to last a few more hours and the intesity is dropping. :sad: 
I wonder if st. Johnsbury has ever gone an entire winter without a "major" 12"+ snowstorm.:-?


----------



## TwinTips21 (Jan 15, 2007)

In conclusion all resorts in central vermont and even some in northern vermont are getting screwed! At lest someone got the snow this time.


----------



## KingM (Jan 15, 2007)

It's kind of died out in the MRV as well. 

Oof, here's what the NOAA says

_M.L.King Day: Periods of freezing rain and sleet. High near 28. Light east wind. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible._

Weren't they saying 4-7" just a couple of hours ago?

They're still showing 2-4" tonight, and 1-2" tomorrow but...


----------



## from_the_NEK (Jan 15, 2007)

KingM said:


> It's kind of died out in the MRV as well.
> 
> Oof, here's what the NOAA says
> 
> ...



Yet ANOTHER storm falls apart because of too much warm air. :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: :angry: 
I don't think any of the world's weather models can fathom how much warm air is in the atmosphere as global warming accelerates. This SHOULD have been a good snow storm. Everything was shaping up perfectly. However, the warm air invaded, turned the snow to sleet and our 6-10inch snowstorm has been another bust. At least we got about 3-4 here in the NEK. Better than nothing but still not enough to get into the trees. I had dreams of bringing my skis to work tomorrow and skiing the hill behing the office. As of 2:00 I have determined that is not going to happen :x


----------



## Sheik Yerbouti (Jan 15, 2007)

Any idea how this is effecting Loon, Waterville, etc.. Per snow-forecast.com they are still supposed to get well over 6" after all is said and done.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Jan 15, 2007)

Sheik Yerbouti said:


> Any idea how this is effecting Loon, Waterville, etc.. Per snow-forecast.com they are still supposed to get well over 6" after all is said and done.



It doens't look good. I would think 6" may be the maximum they get. "well over" = very unlikely.


----------



## Sheik Yerbouti (Jan 15, 2007)

Ahh well, at least it's not rain. Thanks.


----------



## JD (Jan 15, 2007)

Stowe got sleet,  4 inches, looked like it had turned over up high and it's still coming down, not really accumulating as much as condensing.  The snow started light but turned heavy and then to ice so it's like sugar, and moderately heavy, but not wet at all.  Skis OK, but natural snow trails that haven't been ski groomed are not ready.  The overnight will be interesting.  Hopefully we get another few inches of lighter snow, then lower angle stuff would be good to go.


----------



## tcharron (Jan 15, 2007)

Sheik Yerbouti said:


> Ahh well, at least it's not rain. Thanks.



As long as the warm-ass air down by Maryland doesn't spread north.

Currently it's fugging 66 degrees down there.


----------



## SKIQUATTRO (Jan 15, 2007)

NCP hitting the lens on the K1 cam at Killington


----------



## Sheik Yerbouti (Jan 15, 2007)

tcharron said:


> As long as the warm-ass air down by Maryland doesn't spread north.
> 
> Currently it's fugging 66 degrees down there.



Ugh.. to quote some brethren from Woodstock "No Rain! No Rain! No Rain! No Rain! No Rain! No Rain! No Rain! No Rain!"


----------



## from_the_NEK (Jan 15, 2007)

:flame: :flame: :flame: 





SKIQUATTRO said:


> NCP hitting the lens on the K1 cam at Killington


----------



## hammer (Jan 15, 2007)

tcharron said:


> As long as the warm-ass air down by Maryland doesn't spread north.
> 
> Currently it's fugging 66 degrees down there.


I didn't believe you until I saw this...







That's scary...I hope that the forecasts for the cold temps hold...


----------



## tcharron (Jan 15, 2007)

hammer said:


> I didn't believe you until I saw this...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yeppers.  If that just heads northeast, tonight is going to SUCK as it warms up a mad amount, then cools down again.


----------



## JD (Jan 15, 2007)

did J get all snow?


----------



## Sheik Yerbouti (Jan 15, 2007)

tcharron said:


> Yeppers.  If that just heads northeast, tonight is going to SUCK as it warms up a mad amount, then cools down again.



I don't think it's supposed to warm up at all, I thought a cool down was coming tomorrow and carrying through the week, with sub zero temps on Wednesday, of course the day I chose to go skiing


----------



## TwinTips21 (Jan 15, 2007)

Jay got 8 inches, then some mixing and now back to snow.


----------



## ajl50 (Jan 15, 2007)

This winter = not good. 
That's just the facts. The overall northeast atmosphere just isn't going to give us a good snow year. I think we need to approach every storm that way. We need to have the hypothesis that the warm air will screw us.


----------



## snoseek (Jan 15, 2007)

sleet and mix builds super good base. If you want deep dry powder, get on a plane and go find it.


----------



## ALLSKIING (Jan 15, 2007)

snoseek said:


> sleet and mix builds super good base.


Yes it does!!


----------



## ajl50 (Jan 15, 2007)

building a super good base....ok so that's the rose colored glasses? Come on...12 inches of snow v. 4 inches of winter mix. 
want to make a poll?
See which wins?
that's the point of this winter- we're looking to be happy over another busted storm in jan. because it produced sleet to build a base.


----------



## snoseek (Jan 15, 2007)

12 in. of snow will eventually compact to about the same. Not as fun to ski, but gets the job done in the long run. I'm just happy to see more seasonal temps move in.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Jan 15, 2007)

ajl50 said:


> building a super good base....ok so that's the rose colored glasses? Come on...12 inches of snow v. 4 inches of winter mix.
> want to make a poll?
> See which wins?
> that's the point of this winter- we're looking to be happy over another busted storm in jan. because it produced sleet to build a base.



:-D :-D :lol: :lol: :-D :-D 


Actually this is really just


----------



## thetrailboss (Jan 15, 2007)

from_the_NEK said:


> :-D :-D :lol: :lol: :-D :-D
> 
> 
> Actually this is really just



FWIW it was pretty much snow all day at Burke and accumulating ice pellets.  So they got I'd say 6 inches or so while I was there today...add that to the 3-5 from yesterday and things are getting good!!!!


----------



## ALLSKIING (Jan 15, 2007)

ajl50 said:


> building a super good base....ok so that's the rose colored glasses? Come on...12 inches of snow v. 4 inches of winter mix.
> want to make a poll?
> See which wins?
> that's the point of this winter- we're looking to be happy over another busted storm in jan. because it produced sleet to build a base.


It is what it is...I try to look at the glass half full.


----------



## JD (Jan 15, 2007)

Bettern then no snow.


----------



## KingM (Jan 15, 2007)

It's definitely better than last weekend and the temps are finally cold, which is the important thing. As long as it stays cold, the snows will come.

Having said that, how can the meteorologists be wrong again and again and again? It they had said a couple of inches we'd have been happy. Instead, we were hoping for 15 inches and planning for eight. To get those same two inches is a major bummer.


----------



## ALLSKIING (Jan 15, 2007)

KingM said:


> It's definitely better than last weekend and the temps are finally cold, which is the important thing. As long as it stays cold, the snows will come.
> 
> Having said that, how can the meteorologists be wrong again and again and again? It they had said a couple of inches we'd have been happy. Instead, we were hoping for 15 inches and planning for eight. To get those same two inches is a major bummer.


King you have a real reason to be upset. I am keeping my fingers crossed for you on the rest of the winter.


----------



## KingM (Jan 15, 2007)

From a business standpoint, yes, it's pretty lame to have this weather, but fortunately we were busier than average last summer or fall, so we'll be okay if we have only a modestly crappy season from here on out. How is that for low expectations? 

As a skier, I've actually done better this year than last, because last year I kept waiting for conditions to improve and they never did. I think I only skied 6-7 times at Sugarbush, none at MRG and once at Bolton. I'm way ahead of that pace this year because I've decided to go skiing at least once every week and you know what? I've always had a good time. I'm going at least twice this week, including taking advantage of Vermonter Day at Bolton tomorrow.


----------



## powderfreak (Jan 15, 2007)

Pretty bad forecast on my part overall...that low tracked much further north than I thought and today at Stowe we had 5-6" of snow and sleet.  Skied really nicely though but what was odd was that we didn't get any freezing rain...yet in Burlington (similar latitude) everything is encased in ice.  Freezing rain all day after 3" of snow (on top of 3" from yesterday so looks pretty good outside) but man, never saw it coming.

Either way, there was no crust on the powder, temps stayed in the 20-28F range all day.


----------



## loafer89 (Jan 15, 2007)

This storm for the most part was a complete bust and did alot to keep people who would have skied this crucial weekend for the resorts at home. We chased the storm quite far to the north and the 4-6" at Sugarbush was fun, but less than forecast and I would guess that southern New England was adveresly affected by the mixed precipitation.


----------



## ALLSKIING (Jan 15, 2007)

powderfreak said:


> Pretty bad forecast on my part overall...that low tracked much further north than I thought and today at Stowe we had 5-6" of snow and sleet.  Skied really nicely though but what was odd was that we didn't get any freezing rain...yet in Burlington (similar latitude) everything is encased in ice.  Freezing rain all day after 3" of snow (on top of 3" from yesterday so looks pretty good outside) but man, never saw it coming.
> 
> Either way, there was no crust on the powder, temps stayed in the 20-28F range all day.


It tracked much further north then everybody thought. Its all good... can't get them all right.


----------



## loafer89 (Jan 15, 2007)

There was an inversion going on in the Sugarbush area because we took Camp Hill/Bethel Mountain Road to I-89 and the route reaches 2100' according to my GPS and in Rochester at 840' it was 29F on my car thermometer with sleet, while at 2100' it was freezing rain and 32F.


----------



## Greg (Jan 15, 2007)

loafer89 said:


> This storm for the most part was a complete bust and did alot to keep people who would have skied this crucial weekend for the resorts at home. We chased the storm quite far to the north and the 4-6" at Sugarbush was fun, but less than forecast and I would guess that southern New England was adveresly affected by the mixed precipitation.



I was out of the loop all day skiing in the rain at Hunter today. This thread is disappointing to say the least. Had a great day today though despite the rain.


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## loafer89 (Jan 15, 2007)

One big thing that we noticed was a near TOTAL absence of skiers/riders going southbound on I-91 at the end of a normaly packed MLK weekend. I have to imagine alot of resorts are really hurting after another holiday weekend weather disaster.

Okemo was a gost town yesterday, I have seen more impressive crowds in April. Sugarbush North was 99% locals today.


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## snoseek (Jan 15, 2007)

sugarloaf should be pretty good tomorrow.


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## loafer89 (Jan 15, 2007)

snoseek said:


> sugarloaf should be pretty good tomorrow.


 

Yeah I just checked the chat, 8-10" of snow on the mountain today and perhaps 12" + by tuesday.


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## powderfreak (Jan 15, 2007)

Even though it was a bust...can't say I didn't have fun today

http://www.stowe.com/mountain/gallery/blowup.php?id=1521&ref=/mountain/pod.php


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## Loudergood (Jan 15, 2007)

thetrailboss said:


> FWIW it was pretty much snow all day at Burke and accumulating ice pellets.  So they got I'd say 6 inches or so while I was there today...add that to the 3-5 from yesterday and things are getting good!!!!



Yeah I was up there today and Big Dipper was fantastic..Hopefully I'll put in a few more hours there tomorrow.


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 16, 2007)

Loudergood said:


> Yeah I was up there today and Big Dipper was fantastic..Hopefully I'll put in a few more hours there tomorrow.



I missed out yesterday. I hope Burke is able to make a bunch of snow the rest of the week and really get the mountain cranking. I'm guessing this snow was dense enough to open some of the upper mountain natural cover trails


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## thetrailboss (Jan 16, 2007)

Loudergood said:


> Yeah I was up there today and Big Dipper was fantastic..Hopefully I'll put in a few more hours there tomorrow.



We are going to have to ski together sometime....PM me to arrange a time.  

And from_the_nek:  somehow I keep missing you!!!!


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## SkiDog (Jan 16, 2007)

All I can say is I stated VERY EARLY in this thread that we shouldn't even be talking about potential weather systems with the season we've been having....none of you would listen...

you all ruined it... ;-)

M


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## billski (Jan 16, 2007)

*shhhh*



powderfreak said:


> Even though it was a bust...can't say I didn't have fun today
> 
> http://www.stowe.com/mountain/gallery/blowup.php?id=1521&ref=/mountain/pod.php



You're famous now.  Hmm, maybe not the publicity you want though.... shhhhh....


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## SKIQUATTRO (Jan 16, 2007)

well, this post should be closed as its post MLK and another SPECULATION Thread regarding a possible upslope event for N Country VT Friday/Sat/Sun......


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## loafer89 (Jan 16, 2007)

The only good thing about this weekends storm is that the rain in Central/Southern Vermont washed all the salt and sand off of my car, thus I do not need a car wash.:???:


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## JD (Jan 16, 2007)

Just got back from J.  Glazed.  Breakable crust.


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## billski (Jan 16, 2007)

*Where? Stowe?*



JD said:


> Just got back from J.  Glazed.  Breakable crust.



Got back from where? Stowe?


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## JPTracker (Jan 16, 2007)

JD said:


> Just got back from J.  Glazed.  Breakable crust.



Was that this morning you skied Jay?  We skied until 3:00 pm yesterday and everything was still powder.


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## KingM (Jan 16, 2007)

I skied Bolton today and there was a nasty glaze if you tried to leave the trails. They'd done a good job blowing and grooming though, so the actual trails were in surprisingly good shape.


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## JD (Jan 16, 2007)

Jay got rain last night.


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## loafer89 (Jan 16, 2007)

JD said:


> Jay got rain last night.


 

It was changing over to rain as we left Sugarbush yesterday. It was a shame to have to travel near to Northern New England to get some new snow and then watch it start to be washed away as we headed home.:-?


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