# Media has weather all wrong



## billski (Jun 10, 2011)

I've noticed an intriguing behavior of mass markets (Lemmings?) in response to weather forecasts.  

When the weatherman says the chance of rain is 30%, people say, it's gonna rain tomorrow.  When I point out to them, that duh, it means a 70% of no rain, they seem to have an epiphany, like it was news or something.  

Meteorologists bring this on themselves, by reporting 10% chance of rain, 30% chance of snow, instead of the inverse.  The also create havoc by making a forecast for an entire region.  Like this past winter, "90% chance of snow in southern New England."  "Up to two feet of snow"  What does that mean?  Given most storms, it's usually a slice of that region.  But by the time they get around to explaining the bands, people are already planning for a day off.

I've been most pleased with the forecasts that say anything above 60% snow.  Of course there are always those surprises and the up slope, which don't happen in the flatlands anyways. 

My uneducated $0.02.


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## roark (Jun 11, 2011)

There's an inherent level of conservatism at play as well - better to forecast 'bad' weather (precip) and have little to none than the converse.


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## WinnChill (Jun 13, 2011)

billski said:


> I've noticed an intriguing behavior of mass markets (Lemmings?) in response to weather forecasts.
> 
> When the weatherman says the chance of rain is 30%, people say, it's gonna rain tomorrow.  When I point out to them, that duh, it means a 70% of no rain, they seem to have an epiphany, like it was news or something.
> 
> ...



I totally agree about the "chances" of rain being misunderstood.  I hear it all..the...time.  I have to say the local TV guys do a good job trying to break that down even though they have only a couple minutes to say it.  Percentages offers the quickest and easiest way to depict rain coverage but need to back it up with descriptions--and for the most part, they do.   But I seriously think that some of the public simply cannot/will not understand a forecast--not you guys, but many I hear around town here.  I can't tell you how many times I heard the TV guy do his/her forecast, and literally within minutes, I'd see facebook comments misrepresenting what they had said--many times I'd have to call them out on it.  Heck, someone I knew bashed a TV weatherguy friend of mine for a forecast that he didn't even make--the guy was on VACATION!  I'll also take an example from just this past season of a particular snow event had a slightly wide range of forecasted amounts...however, one person cherry-picked the highest, most rediculous amount they could find (and only the HIGH end of the range mind you) and apply it to all forecasters.  It was blatant misrepresentation.  So forecasters will never get a fair shake no matter what...it's the name of the game.  But just as I think the phrase "the customer is always right" is a load of crap, the public has the obligation to interpret forecasts correctly.


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## WinnChill (Jun 20, 2011)

Another case-in-point.  We attended a graduation party this weekend.  The threat of isolated showers was in the forecast for the afternoon and I ensured the hosts had a few tents/tarps for that threat.  Most of the day was rain-free but we were hit with a shower for about 15-20minutes.  And for some reason some people joked and implied that the forecast was wrong because it was raining.  So, if the forecast was for showers....and we get a shower..._how is that wrong_?!?!   Again, another case of the public getting it wrong and automatically thinking the forecast is flawed.


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## billski (Jun 20, 2011)

*Advantage*

Good points, WC.

I hate to say this, but I sometimes use that thinking to my advantage.  Hmm, A chance of rain.  Guess I'll go out and have the whole place (name it) to myself!    I use that contrarian thinking with hiking - I look at the "50 best hikes" books and avoid those trails (mostly on weekends).  Like someone here says, "You don't know unless you go."  

Hey, if you're going to do outdoor activities of any sort, you've got to deal with weather.  It does not mean throw common sense to the wind.  It does mean going prepared.  If I was to stay home every time they say "scattered" this or that, or 20% chance of precip., life would get pretty dull.  Unless of course you are looking not to go.  i. e., school closings!


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## massbmx (Jun 20, 2011)

I've noticed this happening much more latley than ever before.  I wonder if its part of the mass media trying to scare people into never leaving the house again?  I mean if you watch the news you'd think every single thing in the world is something to be scared of.

With weather its even easier for them to do, because they just don't know!  I'm sure some is being conservative because they don't always want to constantly look like fools, but jeez.  Look at the bruins parade, they said to bring rain gear because there was (what they called) a 30% chance of rain and it was beautiful all day. :blink::smash:


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## bigbog (Jun 20, 2011)

massbmx said:


> I've noticed this happening much more latley than ever before.  I wonder if its part of the mass media trying to scare people into never leaving the house again?  I mean if you watch the news you'd think every single thing in the world is something to be scared of.
> 
> With weather its even easier for them to do, because they just don't know!  I'm sure some is being conservative because they don't always want to constantly look like fools, but jeez.  Look at the bruins parade, they said to bring rain gear because there was (what they called) a 30% chance of rain and it was beautiful all day. :blink::smash:



..something to be scared of *and whine about*..LOL  30% chance of rain = 70% chance of non-rain..but they never say that.....:lol:


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## billski (Jun 20, 2011)

bigbog said:


> .30% chance of rain = 70% chance of non-rain..but they never say that.....:lol:



When I point that out, it's amazing how many people never thought about it that way.  :razz:


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## twinplanx (Jun 20, 2011)

How come the Weather Person always gets the blame for bad weather?  Why don't they blame the Anchor for the Murders?


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## WinnChill (Jun 21, 2011)

twinplanx said:


> How come the Weather Person always gets the blame for bad weather?  Why don't they blame the Anchor for the Murders?



+1....love it!  :-D


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## WinnChill (Jun 21, 2011)

billski said:


> Good points, WC.
> 
> I hate to say this, but I sometimes use that thinking to my advantage.  Hmm, A chance of rain.  Guess I'll go out and have the whole place (name it) to myself!    I use that contrarian thinking with hiking - I look at the "50 best hikes" books and avoid those trails (mostly on weekends).  Like someone here says, "You don't know unless you go."
> 
> Hey, if you're going to do outdoor activities of any sort, you've got to deal with weather.  It does not mean throw common sense to the wind.  It does mean going prepared.  If I was to stay home every time they say "scattered" this or that, or 20% chance of precip., life would get pretty dull.  Unless of course you are looking not to go.  i. e., school closings!



Very true...and that is the common sense way of thinking about it.  The local TV guys here do pretty good explaining that the low chance of showers probably won't mean cancelling outdoor plans, but a good indication to be somewhat prepared...just as our hosts at this weekend's party.

I also have to say--to MassBMX's note--that I agree...the national media in particular makes me puke with every severe weather event.  It is absolutely nauseating and I can't watch it anymore.  I cringe when the anchor feigns amazement of how destructive a thunderstorm/hurricant/tornado can be.  Surprise!!  One issue with the past MA tornadoes...or any tornado event really....that folks only had a few minutes warning and couldn't prepare.  Well, that was the actual official tornado warning...the public had plenty of notification of potential tornadoes with the official Tornado WATCH being issued hours ahead of time.  That's the reason for the Watch---to say that developing storms could be tornadic.  If the public wants to scramble for cover at the last minute, then that's their problem.  And I understand that deaths occur due to structural damage even when they do take cover, but I'm addressing the outright public comments of hardly any warning, when, in essense, they had all the warning in the world.


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## billski (Jun 21, 2011)

"We have activated STORM CENTRAL"  Keep tuned here for all the latest breaking news, warnings and traffic notices."  

Cue: man standing alongside Mass Pike as the cars travel by.  Speed limit down to 40 mph.  "You know Bob, a snowplow hasn't been through here in 20 minutes.."


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## Nick (Jun 27, 2011)

Yahoo! Sun again. Next week I'll be in the 90 degree heat in South Carolina. ... hot

Golf at 7AM to try to finish before it warms up too much.


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## billski (Jun 27, 2011)

Nick said:


> Yahoo! Sun again. Next week I'll be in the 90 degree heat in South Carolina. ... hot
> 
> .



You have my sympathies.uke:


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## Nick (Jun 28, 2011)

Yeah, actually it is too hot. Pretty much I'm out in the morning and afternoon and spend mid-day sitting on the couch watching a movie. Or drinking. Or napping. :lol:


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## billski (Jun 28, 2011)

Nick said:


> Yeah, actually it is too hot. Pretty much I'm out in the morning and afternoon and spend mid-day sitting on the couch watching a movie. Or drinking. Or napping. :lol:



I'll be waxing my skis this weekend.  I unloaded my ski bag last weekend.  Hoo boy! Something died in there!   I also found a hat and some cards I'd been looking for.  No lost money this year.


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## Black Phantom (Jul 6, 2011)

What beautiful weather this past long weekend fellas. Not a drop of rain and never got above 83. 

Hope you got outside to enjoy some healthy weather. It does wonders for the mind and body.


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