# LionelHutz'/FIS Winter Outlook



## gpetrics (Oct 6, 2010)

Lionel just finished putting together his winter outlook. Besides giving the analogues a thorough look over in order to determine what this winter might hold, he supposedly also spent some time pouring libations of mead with ULLR himself, doing "investigative forecast work" as he calls it with weather femme Stephanie Abrams, and embedded with a pack of wolves in order to learn from their keen sense of meteorological phenomena. Here are his findings:

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/winter-outlook/

he's fielding questions in the comments on FIS in case you have any... it's good clear reading though!

BRING ON WINTER!


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## 2knees (Oct 6, 2010)

thanks for the link.  nice to see someone stick their neck out and be realistic about it.


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## gpetrics (Oct 7, 2010)

Lionel is good like that. I know he's been talking about the analogues of 07/08 and 08/09 privately for some time. He's been waiting to see how they fit fall for a while. Time will tell but think his broad strokes seem pretty good.


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## bvibert (Oct 7, 2010)

Thanks for posting that.  I don't really know if sounds all that good or bad, but I'm just happy to be talking about winter!


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## riverc0il (Oct 7, 2010)

During the past few years, I have noticed a lot of long term projections being done using analogs. Is there any statistics or data backing up the validity of using analogs? Do they actually pan out and what is the +/- when they are off?


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## bvibert (Oct 7, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> During the past few years, I have noticed a lot of long term projections being done using analogs. Is there any statistics or data backing up the validity of using analogs? Do they actually pan out and what is the +/- when they are off?



I don't know about all the details and what-not, but I do know that Lionel was pretty spot on a bunch of times last season.  Whatever he's been doing works to some extent...


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## skidmarks (Oct 7, 2010)

*Hope it Dumps*

On Magic and Mt Greylock for extra good karma.


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## gpetrics (Oct 8, 2010)

riverc0il said:


> During the past few years, I have noticed a lot of long term projections being done using analogs. Is there any statistics or data backing up the validity of using analogs? Do they actually pan out and what is the +/- when they are off?



Steve, Lionel addressed your question on FIS


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## WinnChill (Oct 9, 2010)

There are some verification processes for seasonal outlooks--some will actually grade themselves in temperature/precip/snowfall, etc.  Canada's wx office has a verification page here.  The Climate Prediction Center has some here as well.

While it's great to keep track, seasonal outlook verifications are usually an afterthought once the season ends--if anything we usually remember the outliers or anomolies.


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## billski (Oct 9, 2010)

WinnChill said:


> There are some verification processes for seasonal outlooks--some will actually grade themselves in temperature/precip/snowfall, etc.  Canada's wx office has a verification page here.  The Climate Prediction Center has some here as well.
> 
> While it's great to keep track, seasonal outlook verifications are usually an afterthought once the season ends--if anything we usually remember the outliers or anomolies.



Hey Winn,
Welcome back!  You helped me snare a couple of good east coast pow days last year.  What's new for this year?  More of the same?


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## WinnChill (Oct 9, 2010)

Hey Bill, thanks!  I've been hovering a little the past few weeks but am getting back into the swing of things.  Been busy with marketing and site work lately. 

The buzz in the wx world has definately been Nina...but even results for that have been mixed.  We'll call em as we see em I guess...ha!  

Looking forward to chatting more with you here this season...sorry for the thread hijack.  

Cheers!


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## gpetrics (Oct 12, 2010)

The Snow'reaster siren is going off for this weekend... Lionel's got a tidbit written up about the scenario: http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/active-october-pattern-may-bring-first-noreaster/


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## skidmarks (Oct 12, 2010)

gpetrics said:


> The Snow'reaster siren is going off for this weekend... Lionel's got a tidbit written up about the scenario: http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/active-october-pattern-may-bring-first-noreaster/



I'm on the edge of my seat!! I have Monday off too!! Should I put the box back on my VW???


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## billski (Oct 12, 2010)

gpetrics said:


> The Snow'reaster siren is going off for this weekend... Lionel's got a tidbit written up about the scenario: http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/active-october-pattern-may-bring-first-noreaster/




GO FOR IT BIG TIME!
Some virgins must have been sacrificed to ULLR....


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## bvibert (Oct 12, 2010)

Awesome!  I'm anticipating those first turns of the NE season pictures!


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## k123 (Oct 12, 2010)

Possibly some mixed precip./snow for Friday in the NE.  
Also looks like some good snowmaking weather coming up for Sunday River







maybe even some snow for Belleayre soon


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## gpetrics (Oct 14, 2010)

skidmarks said:


> I'm on the edge of my seat!! I have Monday off too!! Should I put the box back on my VW???



yes.


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## gpetrics (Oct 14, 2010)

Lionel just posted an update tonight (thursday)... will keep you updated right on through the event...

at a certain time late friday we'll hopefully begin to feature schuss coverage as well!


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## billski (Oct 14, 2010)

Hi greg,
what's the minimum frozen precip you'll go out for when the ground is green and brown???


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## billski (Oct 14, 2010)

Lionel is rockin!!!!






Dammit, where's the snow brush???


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## 4aprice (Oct 15, 2010)

Channel 11 (Mr G) said 6" in Catskills last night.  Struggling to 50 here in NNJ and very windy.  Still over a month away for me and my boards but will go out and brave it for my daily training regiment with joyful anticipation of snow on the brain.  Boats out of the water which is better then last year when I pulled it during the 1st snow (October) of the season.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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