# 2015/16 Elnino....?



## Not Sure (Jul 9, 2015)

http://mashable.com/2015/07/09/strongest-el-nino-on-record/

Forecasters  all but Certain Massive El Nino !!!Haha ...another great East Coast Season coming!


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## snoseek (Jul 10, 2015)

I recall some not so great elnino winters back east.


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## Puck it (Jul 10, 2015)

snoseek said:


> I recall some not so great elnino winters back east.


That is true.


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## snoseek (Jul 10, 2015)

I also remember sugar loaf getting bombed all year during one of them. It will show somewhere at some point haha.

Maybe, just fucking maybe this one time it can snow just a little bit in California?


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## Abubob (Jul 13, 2015)

Sooo ... maybe if I wait one year AT bindings will be really cheap? Mmmm...


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## Not Sure (Jul 13, 2015)

Abubob said:


> Sooo ... maybe if I wait one year AT bindings will be really cheap? Mmmm...


May be some cheap equipment out West , the last couple years the've been calling El Niño and nothing materialized
This year "Super El Niño " haha


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## ScottySkis (Jul 13, 2015)

Yaho


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## catsup948 (Jul 14, 2015)

Super El Nino winter may not be good for anyone on the east coast.  A strong el Nino would likely be great for northern New England, elevation plus lots of precipitation.  Super el Nino could be temps that are too warm to support snow even at higher elevations and latitudes.


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## Tin (Jul 14, 2015)




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## skiberg (Jul 14, 2015)

Don't mean to disappoint anyone, but there really is no scientifically demonstrated correlation between El Nino and more snow at ANY ski are in the country.


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## snoseek (Jul 14, 2015)

skiberg said:


> Don't mean to disappoint anyone, but there really is no scientifically demonstrated correlation between El Nino and more snow at ANY ski are in the country.


Taos, wolf creek, az skibowl and California all do well on a strong elnino. Other areas like pnw dread it. Colorado and Utah are usually more neutral. I'm not sure if it overall effects new england so much either. 

But you see there's still that blob. The blob has really douched up the west for the past 4 years....I've lived through that pos blob. No one really knows how thats gonna effect us. It needs to die already.....


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## octopus (Jul 14, 2015)

transgender is all the rage now , super el nina ftw.


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## Not Sure (Jul 14, 2015)

octopus said:


> transgender is all the rage now , super el nina ftw.



You must be related to Puckit:razz:


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## Puck it (Jul 15, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> You must be related to Puckit:razz:


Wtf the dude!  Why me?


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## Not Sure (Jul 15, 2015)

Puck it said:


> Wtf the dude!  Why me?



A certain person in the past has been trying to give you a bad Rep.
It was fececious poke at him , nothing personal.


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## Puck it (Jul 15, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> A certain person in the past has been trying to give you a bad Rep.
> It was fececious poke at him , nothing personal.


Got it. Thought you were molesting me too!


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## BenedictGomez (Jul 22, 2015)

skiberg said:


> Don't mean to disappoint anyone, but there really is no scientifically demonstrated correlation between El Nino and more snow at ANY ski are in the country.



I'd have to agree.  In the last 65 years of data, there are only 2 other examples of "Super El Nino" events, 1982 & 1997.  So I ran the data for those years for the MM snow stake and you get this:







One excellent snow year and one horrendous snow year.   

Granted, I'd caution drawing conclusions from N=2 versus a 4.5B year old planet, but it's all we've got, and it's about as far from a trend as you could possibly get.  FWIW, the third strongest El Nino year was also a snow-stinker.


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## Tin (Jul 23, 2015)

The 97-98 year was quite impressive, the fast melt at the end too. I loooked through some Farmer's Almanac stuff and Stowe had multiple days in January-Feb 1983 in the 50s.


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## fbrissette (Jul 24, 2015)

skiberg said:


> Don't mean to disappoint anyone, but there really is no scientifically demonstrated correlation between El Nino and more snow at ANY ski are in the country.



There is a significant statistical correlation between ENSO and precipitation/temperature for several regions out west, but none for the north-east of the United States.  But even in the West, ENSO only controls a relatively small portion of the variance linked to precip and temperature. During the warm phase, the likelihood of warmer than average winter temperatures is very high for most of the West.   Still, other components of climate natural variability have a significant contribution.


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## dlague (Jul 24, 2015)

skiberg said:


> Don't mean to disappoint anyone, but there really is no scientifically demonstrated correlation between El Nino and more snow at ANY ski are in the country.



Well everything suggests that the polar vortex get pushed further east bringing for cold to the northeast.  Storm tracks are further south and more tropical.  If those two come together which at best would be somewhere along the east northeast theoretically.  However things have to be lined up perfectly which does not always happen as depicted below.


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## deadheadskier (Jul 24, 2015)

This year even colder than last?  Yes please


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