# When skiing returns



## nhskier1969 (Mar 25, 2020)

When skiing returns(hopefully by the end of April)  Who will be left, will anyone reopen?
Killington and Sugarbush come to mind right away.  But what about some of the other resorts, ie Loon, Wildcat.  Will they open if they still have decent coverage?

Also I can just imagine what Killington might be like when they open.  There are a lot of unused Ikon passes out there


----------



## Edd (Mar 25, 2020)

I’d put money on no. Ski areas need to shore up resources, financially speaking. No screwing around now. 


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## urungus (Mar 25, 2020)

I would be shocked if lift-serviced skiing returns before autumn.  IMO, even that is iffy, given that most experts say it will be 12-18 months before a vaccine is widely available.


----------



## icecoast1 (Mar 25, 2020)

Killington is the only one that has a shot but the way this thing is going, that's highly unlikely.  We've already seen people can't behave responsibly at ski areas, that place would be a zoo if they were the only ones open


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 25, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> When skiing returns(hopefully by the end of April)  Who will be left, will anyone reopen?



No.

And even if your timeline of late-April is correct, it would have very little to do with the virus.


----------



## tumbler (Mar 25, 2020)

Massachusetts schools now closed until May 4th.


----------



## cdskier (Mar 25, 2020)

I really have a hard time believing we will see skiing reopen in the east this season. Maybe K has a chance if the situation vastly improves by sometime in May...but I think that is it.


----------



## JimG. (Mar 25, 2020)

No one will reopen.

If ski areas are smart they will look carefully at their season 20-21 products and extend some price deadlines. Prepare for next season. 

Because even if this ends by summer a lot of people are spooked now that areas are closed. And that is going to adversely affect next season's pass sales.


----------



## ss20 (Mar 25, 2020)

I'm hopeful Killington will re-open in May.  We'll have a better idea come Easter if we're going down the other side of this curve.  From a logistical standpoint it's almost nothing for them to open...4-5 lifties, a couple bar tenders at the Ubar, and a few ski patrollers.  No K1 lodge as that's scheduled to be demoed.  Staff should be there for the mountain biking and golf operations which start up mid-May traditionally.  

And as I've said before the skiers will come out in DROVES and the atmosphere will be epic next time they open for skiing (whether that be May or October).


----------



## 2Planker (Mar 25, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> Killington is the only one that has a shot but the way this thing is going, that's highly unlikely.  We've already seen people can't behave responsibly at ski areas, that place would be a zoo if they were the only ones open



YES, especially since most people at K are coming from NYC or the metro area... Yikes !


----------



## Smellytele (Mar 25, 2020)

2Planker said:


> YES, especially since most people at K are coming from NYC or the metro area... Yikes !



I know this year is a whole new ball game but when I ski at K in May I wouldn’t say most of the people are from NYC or the metro area. Mass, CT, VT and NH are the most prevalent license plates I see. NY and NJ are sprinkled in.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## MEtoVTSkier (Mar 25, 2020)

ss20 said:


> I'm hopeful Killington will re-open in May.  We'll have a better idea come Easter if we're going down the other side of this curve.  From a logistical standpoint it's almost nothing for them to open...4-5 lifties, a couple bar tenders at the Ubar, and a few ski patrollers.  No K1 lodge as that's scheduled to be demoed. * Staff should be there for the mountain biking and golf operations which start up mid-May traditionally.
> *
> And as I've said before the skiers will come out in DROVES and the atmosphere will be epic next time they open for skiing (whether that be May or October).



I wouldn't be counting on it this year. Wouldn't surprise me to see no summer activity until mid-summer at the earliest.


----------



## NYDB (Mar 25, 2020)

MEtoVTSkier said:


> I wouldn't be counting on it this year. Wouldn't surprise me to see no summer activity until mid-summer at the earliest.



Yeah, I don't see summer operations going until 7/4.  Which won't have much impact on the bottom line of the resorts so it's a no brainer to delay from their perspective


----------



## Not Sure (Mar 25, 2020)

Next Year


----------



## ScottySkis (Mar 25, 2020)

Military all coming not being deployed

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/...utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=Socialflow+NAV


----------



## jimk (Mar 25, 2020)

I'm not overly optimistic, but hoping there is a chance I get to use my senior season pass to ski Snowbird again in the next couple of months.  

They've consistently left a small amount of wiggle room in their virus announcements for the possibility of reopening.  On March 21 they said, "extend(ing) the suspension of our operations indefinitely. We are closed for now and, while we cannot underestimate the extreme fluidity of our current situation, our goal is to reopen when we can."  On March 13 as many resorts were announcing impending closures they said, "we plan to maintain operations through the spring."  They closed two days later during the weekend wave when most other North American resorts closed too.

Today 3/25 the Utah Governor issued his plan for the health and economic recovery of the state. He did NOT issue a shelter in place plan like other states or cities have done.  But neither is he on the "back by Easter" idea Trump floated the other day.

We shall see.  Stay safe all.


----------



## cdskier (Mar 25, 2020)

I still don't think people quite grasp the seriousness of this. And maybe it will take someone they know personally falling victim to this before they truly understand. Sadly I lost a 45 y/o co-worker tonight. Hard to even think about skiing now...


----------



## ScottySkis (Mar 25, 2020)

cdskier said:


> I still don't think people quite grasp the seriousness of this. And maybe it will take someone they know personally falling victim to this before they truly understand. Sadly I lost a 45 y/o co-worker tonight. Hard to even think about skiing now...



I very sorry about that
I unfortunately agree with u


----------



## deadheadskier (Mar 26, 2020)

cdskier said:


> I still don't think people quite grasp the seriousness of this. And maybe it will take someone they know personally falling victim to this before they truly understand. Sadly I lost a 45 y/o co-worker tonight. Hard to even think about skiing now...


Sorry to hear that. 

Did they have existing health issues that you knew of?



Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## Cornhead (Mar 26, 2020)

cdskier said:


> I still don't think people quite grasp the seriousness of this. And maybe it will take someone they know personally falling victim to this before they truly understand. Sadly I lost a 45 y/o co-worker tonight. Hard to even think about skiing now...


Condolences, your story will sadly be repeated often in the next several months. God help us all. Skiing seems so trivial at this point, embarrassingly so.

Sent from my Moto E (4) Plus using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## cdskier (Mar 26, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> Sorry to hear that.
> 
> Did they have existing health issues that you knew of?



Somewhat. He did have some issues with reduced lung capacity due to a problem in the past.


----------



## tumbler (Mar 26, 2020)

We are the only ones really thinking about skiing.  It is spring in the flatlands so it is not on everyone's mind.  Golf was and then the courses got shut down in MA yesterday.


----------



## Pez (Mar 26, 2020)

If we have skiing next season I'll be happy


----------



## kingslug (Mar 26, 2020)

First time in 25 years im not even thinking of skiing..i have to go into nyc twice a week..pretty much thinking of that..and whats going to happen if this drags on for months...which it will


----------



## Newpylong (Mar 26, 2020)

I will be happy to have the 2021-2022 season start off without issue at this point. We are in uncharted territory. 

Killington may be able to open for a bit, but also remember there are sections of Superstar that are well under the typical spring depth. They had planned to make snow for ~48 more hours.


----------



## jaybird (Mar 26, 2020)

.. realistically .. few care now whether Superstar has any skiable snow .. or if it reopens for Easter. At this point, many would simply hope for the possibility that skiing returns as an option next year.
One step .. one day at a time.


----------



## deadheadskier (Mar 26, 2020)

uphillklimber said:


> And here in Maine, they are trying to get them open to give some activity to people where distance is a natural result of the activity.


Maybe if they either say walking only or 1 person per cart.

Either way, I'd be surprised if they allow the courses to stay open for long.  They closed Acadia National park today.  If there's concern about people hiking in a park, I'd imagine there will be concern about people  congregating on a golf course.  Though perhaps the park closure is to discourage people from Mass traveling to Maine and spreading the disease. 

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## Edd (Mar 26, 2020)

Newpylong said:


> I will be happy to have the 2021-2022 season start off without issue at this point. We are in uncharted territory.



This is the best case scenario, but I’m guessing it’s realistic.


----------



## NYDB (Mar 26, 2020)

So you guys are writing off the 20-21 winter at this point?  Seems overly pessimistic 





Edd said:


> This is the best case scenario, but I’m guessing it’s realistic.



Sent from my SM-G973U using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 26, 2020)

NY DirtBag said:


> So you guys are writing off the 20-21 winter at this point?  Seems overly pessimistic



It's ridiculous.  There's no way this shuts down the US ski industry 8 months from now.  Worst I could see is travel bans from Southern Hemisphere nations that dont have this under control, and even that might be silly to suggest.


----------



## nhskier1969 (Mar 26, 2020)

Pez said:


> If we have skiing next season I'll be happy



I know its all doom and gloom out there, been following the stats for the coronavirus(I use to do this storm tracking in the winter).  Anyway if you look at china, the outbreak started December 31st.  by the middle of February companies we starting to open and most went back to work .  That runs about 45 days. And today they just announced that Itlay's new cases have been slowing down for couple days.  Again there's ran about 45 days.  If you look at the United States the first case in Washington was the sometime around the first week of February.  If it runs it course like the other countries, it would reach its peak in around the first week of April.  Italy death rate was much higher because 3 generation of families normally live in the same complex.   Majority of the deaths in Italy are people over the age of 70.  The death rate in the united state currently is running 1.3% of known cases.  Doctors have even come out saying they believe the infection rate is 20 to 30 times more than being reported.  This thing will never go away.  Very similar to malaria.  There are always going to be outbreaks of this disease but the cases will be smaller and smaller.
Also I think the media way overhyped this thing.  Yes the death rate will be higher than the flu but we haven't built up an emmune system yet.  I do think its a bad situation but not as much as the media are over hyping it.


----------



## jimk (Mar 26, 2020)

Good post by NHSkier.


----------



## Tonyr (Mar 26, 2020)

jimk said:


> Good post by NHSkier.



Yes that was a good informative post.


----------



## JimG. (Mar 26, 2020)

+1

The hype has to stop. The media is sadly the LAST place anyone should look for reliable info.


----------



## icecoast1 (Mar 26, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> It's ridiculous.  There's no way this shuts down the US ski industry 8 months from now.  Worst I could see is travel bans from Southern Hemisphere nations that dont have this under control, and even that might be silly to suggest.




Anything is possible.  Looking at the way the country has reacted so far, if this thing comes back in the fall and there isnt an effective FDA approved vaccine, I forsee the fear and panic ramping back up.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 26, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> *Italy death rate was much higher because 3 generation of families normally live in the same complex. *  Majority of the deaths in Italy are people over the age of 70.



Yes; most people miss this.   

 Additionally:

1) Italy's smoking rate is something like twice that of America
2) Italy's > 80 population is 90% (Really) higher than America
3) Italy's healthcare is nowhere near as good as America's (spare me an online list with disparate metrics ranking Italy higher)
4) Italy has nowhere near the ICU beds per capita that America has
5) Italy didnt understand COVID19 was in Italy for a very long time, attributing many deaths to pneumonia

Each of the above are material factors.

Our death rate will not be as high as Italy's death rate, despite the media and/or bobblehead TV anchor's with degrees in _"Communications"_ telling us otherwise.


----------



## icecoast1 (Mar 26, 2020)

JimG. said:


> +1
> 
> The hype has to stop. The media is sadly the LAST place anyone should look for reliable info.



It has to stop but it wont.  And sadly with everyone stuck at home with little to do and 24 hour access to news, it's only making the situation worse


----------



## Newpylong (Mar 26, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> I know its all doom and gloom out there, been following the stats for the coronavirus(I use to do this storm tracking in the winter).  Anyway if you look at china, the outbreak started December 31st.  by the middle of February companies we starting to open and most went back to work .  That runs about 45 days. And today they just announced that Itlay's new cases have been slowing down for couple days.  Again there's ran about 45 days.  If you look at the United States the first case in Washington was the sometime around the first week of February.  If it runs it course like the other countries, it would reach its peak in around the first week of April.  Italy death rate was much higher because 3 generation of families normally live in the same complex.   Majority of the deaths in Italy are people over the age of 70.  The death rate in the united state currently is running 1.3% of known cases.  Doctors have even come out saying they believe the infection rate is 20 to 30 times more than being reported.  This thing will never go away.  Very similar to malaria.  There are always going to be outbreaks of this disease but the cases will be smaller and smaller.
> Also I think the media way overhyped this thing.  Yes the death rate will be higher than the flu but we haven't built up an emmune system yet.  I do think its a bad situation but not as much as the media are over hyping it.



Sorry to piss in the cheerios but China (a centralized authoritarian regime) cannot be compared to the United States. They locked down the hot zones fairly quickly after cases surged, closed shops, curfew, etc. Not to mention those people had smartphone apps where they had to check in, etc and so on.

Perhaps if the federal government had gone that route quickly here we would already be looking at the end of it, but that obviously would have other ramifications in Murica. As late as this week the beaches were still packed in FL and CA for christ sake.

It is possible to not fall into the ridiculous media hype but also be realistic about the situation.


----------



## ss20 (Mar 26, 2020)

If things haven't returned to enough normalcy that there's no skiing by November 1st 2020 we're gonna have bigger issues than skiing, the economy, etc.  I'm thinking civil unrest, shutdown of all non-essential civilian services, food/supply rationing.  You can't have a functional society with 30% of the population unemployed, 10% sick with no where to go, and the remaining 60% stuck in their houses for 7 months.


----------



## JimG. (Mar 26, 2020)

Newpylong said:


> Sorry to piss in the cheerios but China (a centralized authoritarian regime) cannot be compared to the United States. They locked down the hot zones fairly quickly after cases surged, closed shops, curfew, etc. Not to mention those people had smartphone apps where they had to check in, etc and so on.
> 
> Perhaps if the federal government had gone that route quickly here we would already be looking at the end of it, but that obviously would have other ramifications in Murica. As late as this week the beaches were still packed in FL and CA for christ sake.
> 
> It is possible to not fall into the ridiculous media hype but also be realistic about the situation.



And I agree here too and it goes back to the selfishness out there. In an authoritarian regime like communist China if you don't follow directives you disappear. Hence they could crack down and contain the virus.

That won't happen here in America where most people just do what they want regardless.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 26, 2020)

Newpylong said:


> Sorry to piss in the cheerios but China (a centralized authoritarian regime) cannot be compared to the United States. They locked down the hot zones fairly quickly after cases surged, closed shops, curfew, etc. Not to mention those people had smartphone apps where they had to check in, etc and so on.



I dont believe you can trust the Chinese data though.  I think it's pretty safe to say they had tens-of-thousands more cases than they reported.

  I also think given footage that came out early (which was cracked down on) China had many more deaths than reported. And certainly for Iran, where they had bodies stacked like cord wood, so I'm not buying Iran's data either.


----------



## icecoast1 (Mar 26, 2020)

JimG. said:


> And I agree here too and it goes back to the selfishness out there. In an authoritarian regime like communist China if you don't follow directives you disappear. Hence they could crack down and contain the virus.
> 
> That won't happen here in America where most people just do what they want regardless.



Our smart phones are already being tracked anyway without us knowing it, might as well openly admit it and use it and other minor intrusion measures to allow us to return to a functioning society


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 26, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> *Our smart phones are already being tracked anyway without us knowing it*, might as well openly admit it and use it and other minor intrusion measures to allow us to return to a functioning society



Achoo...

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard



> _to calculate the actual underlying social indexing score we combine tens of millions of anonymous mobile phones and their interactions with each other each day_


----------



## p_levert (Mar 26, 2020)

JimG. said:


> +1
> 
> The hype has to stop. The media is sadly the LAST place anyone should look for reliable info.



Jeez, why would you say that?  You need to get your information somewhere.  CNN is better than talking to the cashier at the grocery store.  And there's, obviously, a huge variety of outlets out there (BTW, CNN is not my favorite).  The important thing is think critically about the info provided and use multiple sources.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 26, 2020)

From watching CNN, I'm pretty sure everyone in America is going to die soon.

Twice.


----------



## icecoast1 (Mar 26, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> From watching CNN, I'm pretty sure everyone in America is going to die soon.
> 
> Twice.



That's the same story most of the MSM is telling people these days.  No wonder the country went off the cliff


----------



## Edd (Mar 26, 2020)

p_levert said:


> Jeez, why would you say that?



Speaking generally, (not about Jim specifically) I figure this can serve as a way for people to make themselves feel better. Tell themselves “It’s not that bad”. 

I’m thinking the infection rates predicted are plausible, and hot spots will exceed their resources. 

What I’m doubtful about is the will of this country to shut down for 3 actual months, which I keep hearing about. 6 weeks? OK. But twice that is more than I think we can accept.


----------



## Bumpsis (Mar 26, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> It has to stop but it wont.  And sadly with everyone stuck at home with little to do and 24 hour access to news, it's only making the situation worse



Interesting and sobering read - one person's telling about taking care COVID-19 afflicted loved one. Granted, one person's experience but no hype. This is serious.  Ask yourself, do you really want to go through this?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/magazine/coronavirus-family.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab


----------



## icecoast1 (Mar 26, 2020)

Bumpsis said:


> Interesting and sobering read - one person's telling about taking care COVID-19 afflicted loved one. Granted, one person's experience but no hype. This is serious.  Ask yourself, do you really want to go through this?
> https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/magazine/coronavirus-family.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab



Who in their right mind would want to go through anything like that? But that doesnt mean we can't find a way to start to slowly go back to normal as a society.  If we all sit inside and hide for months til a vaccine is developed, the damage  will be far worse


----------



## p_levert (Mar 26, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> Who in their right mind would want to go through anything like that? But that doesnt mean we can't find a way to start to slowly go back to normal as a society.  If we all sit inside and hide for months til a vaccine is developed, the damage  will be far worse



Mostly agree, but it will be hard to go back to work until we get the ability to test large chunks of the population (maybe in 6 weeks) and get the hospital issues straightened out, meaning enough masks, gowns, ventilators (so maybe 2 months from now).  Of course we're behind in these endeavors because of the response from the guy in the white house.


----------



## jimk (Mar 26, 2020)

This is a mental game on my part, just the product of five minutes of googling and some shaky associations by me.  

If Italy has a total pop of 60 million and current corona deaths are ~7500, and they are approaching a point where deaths will lessen each day, and projected 2020 Italy corona deaths are 30,000 (wild guess), that equals 0.05% of the population.

If US has a total pop of 330 million and we have as bad a time as Italy and 0.05% percent of our population dies of corona in 2020, that would equal 150,000 dead people.  

Compare the 150,000 figure to leading causes of death in USA in 2017:
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
Roadway deaths:  40,231

Draw your own conclusions about the economic damage from panic and over-reaction vs. the actual health damage of this crisis.  I know this is way over simplified.  Shoot me down if you care to.


----------



## Edd (Mar 26, 2020)

Rumor I’ve heard is NH on lockdown tomorrow. Press release forthcoming. 


Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone


----------



## icecoast1 (Mar 26, 2020)

Anybody within close proximity to NYC should be stopping anybody from the city from coming into their states if they are serious about slowing the spread.  Florida is starting to crack down on people flying in but drivers should be checked as well


----------



## Edd (Mar 26, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> Anybody within close proximity to NYC should be stopping anybody from the city from coming into their states if they are serious about slowing the spread.  Florida is starting to crack down on people flying in but drivers should be checked as well



How do you mean? Verbal persuasion, right?


----------



## Newpylong (Mar 26, 2020)

Edd said:


> Rumor I’ve heard is NH on lockdown tomorrow. Press release forthcoming.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone



Not lockdown ie shelter in place, no state has issued a lockdown order.

Stay at home order effective tomorrow midnight mirroring MA and VT.


----------



## icecoast1 (Mar 26, 2020)

Edd said:


> How do you mean? Verbal persuasion, right?



Not sure how Florida is going about actually enforcing it.  Probably a little more difficult with air travel


----------



## gladerider (Mar 26, 2020)

i'd be shocked if any hills open up in May


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 26, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> *Anybody within close proximity to NYC should be stopping anybody from the city from coming into their states* if they are serious about slowing the spread.  Florida is starting to crack down on people flying in but drivers should be checked as well



The fleeing of COVID19+ people from NYC is a serious problem; Dr. Birx said so in the White House press conference yesterday.


----------



## Former Sunday Rivah Rat (Mar 26, 2020)

I found a lot of comfort by looking at the link below.  Particularly the fact that the death rate for those with no pre-existing conditions is only 0.9.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

 The economic impact is going to kill WAY MORE folks. 

Quote from the movie The Big Short.  Brad Pitt played
Ben Rickert:
"If we're right, people lose homes. People lose jobs. People lose retirement savings, people lose pensions. You know what I hate about f***ing banking? It reduces people to numbers. Here's a number - every 1% unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die, did you know that?"

Some basic calculations of an increased death rate from this recession to come IN THE US ONLY:
So if we expect an average of a 5% increase in Unemployment over the next 5 years that means 40,000 people times 25 = 1,000,000 people will die from the recession to follow in the US alone.

The cure is definitely going to kill more than COVID-19, no question.  

So far 23,595 people have died worldwide this virus, most with pre existing conditions.....

Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year.

WTF?????


----------



## urungus (Mar 26, 2020)

jimk said:


> This is a mental game on my part, just the product of five minutes of googling and some shaky associations by me.
> 
> If Italy has a total pop of 60 million and current corona deaths are ~7500, and they are approaching a point where deaths will lessen each day, and projected 2020 Italy corona deaths are 30,000 (wild guess), that equals 0.05% of the population.
> 
> ...



You are calculating 150,000 dead Americans assuming we lock down society and the economy, as Italy has (belatedly) done.  But it would presumably be much more than that if we decided the economy is more important than Grandma.  Also I fear that your projection of 30,000 fatalities in Italy will be on the low side, they have already surpassed 8,000 and have been averaging about 700 per day for the last few days.  At that rate they will have surpassed 30,000 in about a month.  This article has a sobering graph of how the number of cases is the US is accelerating faster than in Italy:  https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/20/21179040/coronavirus-us-italy-not-overreacting


----------



## icecoast1 (Mar 26, 2020)

urungus said:


> You are calculating 150,000 dead Americans assuming we lock down society and the economy, as Italy has (belatedly) done.  But it would presumably be much more than that if we decided the economy is more important than Grandma.  Also I fear that your projection of 30,000 fatalities in Italy will be on the low side, they have already surpassed 8,000 and have been averaging about 700 per day for the last few days.  At that rate they will have surpassed 30,000 in about a month.  This article has a sobering graph of how the number of cases is the US is accelerating faster than in Italy:  https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/20/21179040/coronavirus-us-italy-not-overreacting



Nobody is saying the economy is more important than Grandma.  Selectively opening parts of the country to certain people is not telling Grandma to drop dead


----------



## Edd (Mar 26, 2020)

NY DirtBag said:


> So you guys are writing off the 20-21 winter at this point?  Seems overly pessimistic
> 
> Sent from my SM-G973U using AlpineZone mobile app



Actually, I didn’t intend that. I must have read his post incorrectly. I think next season should be fine.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 26, 2020)

urungus said:


> *This article has a sobering graph of how the number of cases is the US is accelerating faster than in Italy*



  Vox is either intentionally trying to scare people, or whoever made that graph is a flipping idiot.

Knowing Vox, my money is on the former.


----------



## cdskier (Mar 26, 2020)

Sunday Rivah Rat said:


> I found a lot of comfort by looking at the link below.  Particularly the fact that the death rate for those with no pre-existing conditions is only 0.9.



Yea...sure is comforting to know that only 1 out of every 100 people I know that have no pre-existing conditions would die if they get COVID-19.

Also a somewhat interesting article about research into the impact of a recession on death rates (as opposed to numbers you used that were thrown out by a movie)...
https://drexel.edu/now/archive/2014/July/Unemployment-Study/


----------



## p_levert (Mar 26, 2020)

jimk said:


> This is a mental game on my part, just the product of five minutes of googling and some shaky associations by me.
> 
> If Italy has a total pop of 60 million and current corona deaths are ~7500, and they are approaching a point where deaths will lessen each day, and projected 2020 Italy corona deaths are 30,000 (wild guess), that equals 0.05% of the population.
> 
> ...



As pointed out by someone else, Italy did take preventive measures, so the toll would be higher than 300K.

When the hospitals are in better shape (enough gear to welcome new patients), and we have testing for CV-19, then we consider loosening things up.

How about this, we accept 300K CV-19 deaths and reduce the speed limit to 55 to compensate?  Or we fully lock down everyone over 70 (ie they can't leave the house and all food is delivered).  We could do that too.  But these kinds of solutions tend to be impossible politically, at least in this country.  China is different.


----------



## skiur (Mar 26, 2020)

gladerider said:


> i'd be shocked if any hills open up in May



Wait, is that what this thread was about?  I doubt it too but still holding out some hope for may turns on superstar.


----------



## nhskier1969 (Mar 26, 2020)

cdskier said:


> Yea...sure is comforting to know that only 1 out of every 100 people I know that have no pre-existing conditions would die if they get COVID-19.
> 
> Also a somewhat interesting article about research into the impact of a recession on death rates (as opposed to numbers you used that were thrown out by a movie)...
> https://drexel.edu/now/archive/2014/July/Unemployment-Study/



1 out of 100 people don't die.
break down the stats

1 out of 100 people will catch it.  Out of the 1 out of 100, 80% will have light to no systems at all.  15% have moderate symptoms have moderate sysmptoms and may need to be hospitalized.  5% are severe, and need ventilators. United states is averaging a 1.3% mortality rate.  It's higher in Washington because it went thru a lot of Nursing homes.


----------



## Not Sure (Mar 26, 2020)

skiur said:


> Wait, is that what this thread was about?  I doubt it too but still holding out some hope for may turns on superstar.


----------



## cdskier (Mar 26, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> 1 out of 100 people don't die.
> break down the stats



Maybe re-read my comment. I didn't say 1 out of 100 people will die. I said 1 out of every 100 people that GET it will die.


----------



## p_levert (Mar 26, 2020)

cdskier said:


> Maybe re-read my comment. I didn't say 1 out of 100 people will die. I said 1 out of every 100 people that GET it will die.



Not quite correct, since we've only been testing people with symptons.  So you should say 1 out of 100 people that get it *and* are symptomatic will die.


----------



## cdskier (Mar 26, 2020)

p_levert said:


> Not quite correct, since we've only been testing people with symptons.  So you should say 1 out of 100 people that get it *and* are symptomatic will die.



Well I was responding specifically to someone that pointed to data showing the death rate was "only" .9 among people with no pre-existing conditions and the fact that they said that number was "comforting" to them. So my response of course is going to respond to the number they cited in the link to the data they mentioned.

You're absolutely right that it "could" be lower. It also "could" be higher if we overload the healthcare system by "opening things up" too quickly as some people on this forum seem to be in favor of doing. The US has one of the lowest death rates at the moment compared to many other countries. I'd prefer to see it stay that way until we better understand things and are better prepared to deal with it.


----------



## Former Sunday Rivah Rat (Mar 26, 2020)

cdskier said:


> Yea...sure is comforting to know that only 1 out of every 100 people I know that have no pre-existing conditions would die if they get COVID-19.
> 
> Also a somewhat interesting article about research into the impact of a recession on death rates (as opposed to numbers you used that were thrown out by a movie)...
> https://drexel.edu/now/archive/2014/July/Unemployment-Study/



congrats cdskier for finding the 1 article that contradicts numerous studies showing higher unemployment causing an increased death rate :

https://news.yale.edu/2002/05/23/ri...r-death-rates-new-study-yale-researcher-shows

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1448606/

https://www.genre.com/knowledge/blo...-lead-to-an-increasing-mortality-rate-en.html

https://www.livescience.com/13578-unemployment-health-mortality.html


----------



## deadheadskier (Mar 26, 2020)

Regardless of the stats, the real concern I have is people dying because we don't have the equipment to save them like we normally would.  

I started my day with a very sobering conversation with the Director of Nursing of a hospital in VT.  If the rate of infection in NYC hits VT, within 3 weeks the hospital will have to switch to a policy of no ventilators for patients over age 60.  These heroes are very well used to DNR situations and see sad endings of life every day, but it's pretty much unprecedented they have to make the DNR choice for their patients and loved ones because they lack the resources to treat. 

That's not media fear mongering. It's legitimate fear of the providers on the front lines. Let's hope it doesn't get that bad.

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## icecoast1 (Mar 26, 2020)

Is the rate of infection in a highly populated, highly dense city likely to occur in a highly rural state?


----------



## deadheadskier (Mar 26, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> Is the rate of infection in a highly populated, highly dense city likely to occur in a highly rural state?


If VT didn't take the extreme measures they have maybe. I mean just look at what happened in Boston because of one small conference for Biogen.  VT extended  school cancellation for the year today as a precaution.  The reality is that maybe  5 of the 15 hospitals in the state have the ICU capability of treating a serious Covid-19 patient.  Outside of UVM Med Center the capacity of the others is maybe 2-5 patients each for those 4.  UVM capacity might be 30 patients.  It's not just a lack of Vents, it's a lack of negative pressure isolation rooms.  I'd be surprised if the latter exceeded 50 patient rooms for the entire state.  That's not a lot to serve a population of 600k people. 

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## Not Sure (Mar 26, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> Regardless of the stats, the real concern I have is people dying because we don't have the equipment to save them like we normally would.
> 
> I started my day with a very sobering conversation with the Director of Nursing of a hospital in VT.  If the rate of infection in NYC hits VT, within 3 weeks the hospital will have to switch to a policy of no ventilators for patients over age 60.  These heroes are very well used to DNR situations and see sad endings of life every day, but it's pretty much unprecedented they have to make the DNR choice for their patients and loved ones because they lack the resources to treat.
> 
> ...



With elective surgeries on hold will this make a viable dent in the deficit? 

https://poststar.com/news/local/loc...cle_fe2c16f5-9199-5b4a-ae1b-5c58e9bb4b33.html


----------



## flakeydog (Mar 26, 2020)

of course when a few thousand from points south flee to the perceived safety and tranquility of points north, that will add to the burden.  Capacity that was not necessarily planned for.  Vermont may be able to handle some of this but the Adirondacks are a different story.  Lots of people flocking up there, buying out the food supply and hunkering down in their 2nd homes.  All fine until they need legit medical care, then the shit really hits the fan.  Beautiful country but remote in every sense of the word.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 26, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> I started my day with a very sobering conversation with the Director of Nursing of a hospital in VT. * If* *the rate of infection in NYC hits VT*, within 3 weeks the hospital will have to switch to a policy of no ventilators for patients over age 60.  These heroes are very well used to DNR situations and see sad endings of life every day, but it's pretty much unprecedented they have to make the DNR choice for their patients and loved ones because they lack the resources to treat.
> 
> That's not media fear mongering. It's legitimate fear of the providers on the front lines. Let's hope it doesn't get that bad.



If.  And it wont. 

Vermont has a strong natural defense against massive, large scale numerical, communicable pandemic disease; it's called geography.


----------



## deadheadskier (Mar 26, 2020)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> With elective surgeries on hold will this make a viable dent in the deficit?
> 
> https://poststar.com/news/local/loc...cle_fe2c16f5-9199-5b4a-ae1b-5c58e9bb4b33.html


It will help some for sure.  A lot of my week has actually been reaching out to Anasthasia docs to let them know that the FDA has an emergency order in place that allows for the use of Anesthesia machines for off label use as ICU ventilators. 

It's not ideal.  Anesthesia machines are far more advanced to run than an ICU ventilator.  The skill requirement to run a ventilator is a 2 year associate degreed Respiratory Therapist making $40-65k a year.  Anesthesia machines require at least a CRNA making $120k+ if not a true Anesthesiologist in the $400k range.  

The additional capacity is pretty minimal though.  Annual sales in the US market for Anesthesia machines is roughly 6k units. Average lifespan of that equipment is about 12 years.  Some hospitals and surgery centers push that limit out.  So call it 100k certified Anesthesia machines in the country would be my guess.  So when you see one state such as NY begging for 30k ventilators, you can see that pushing a portion of the 100k Anesthesia machines in the US in place as an ICU vent substitute is somewhat of a drop in the bucket. 

Hospitals are for sure actively converting ORs to ICU isolation beds with Anesthesia machines as vents to increase critical care capacity. 

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## cdskier (Mar 26, 2020)

Sunday Rivah Rat said:


> congrats cdskier for finding the 1 article that contradicts numerous studies showing higher unemployment causing an increased death rate :
> 
> https://news.yale.edu/2002/05/23/ri...r-death-rates-new-study-yale-researcher-shows
> 
> ...



I guess you didn't actually read the details of the research I posted. If you did, you'd see that while yes, unemployment itself causes an increase in the mortality rate among the unemployed, it is also offset by a benefit to ALL groups of reduced risk factors during a slower economy.

Also, here's a second article since you seem to think there's only 1:
https://www.pnas.org/content/106/41/17290

I'm not saying I'm advocating a recession. I'm just saying it isn't necessarily anywhere near as bad as some of you want us to believe it would be. With COVID-19 we have actual REAL deaths occurring TODAY. With a recession we "may" have deaths based on some hypothetical scenarios. We can't just "open things up" because we're worried about the economic impact. And I'd love to hear some real solutions on how we would logistically implement a "isolate only high risk factor people" scenario. It really isn't anywhere near as simple as people pretend it is. There's far too much integration and potential "touch points" between different risk factor groups at least in major metro areas. More isolated rural areas could potentially find it easier to have more flexibility (assuming you can keep the higher-risk metro area people away somehow).

Maybe when you lose someone close to you from this you'll understand (especially when they are young and had a family). I take little comfort in statistics right now. Yes, emotion is playing a role in my responses here. Don't care... My view is largely unchanged from what it was previously. The only difference is I'm being more vocal about it now.

Someone else commented earlier (either in this thread or another one today) something along the lines of "you can think the media is over-hyping things and also think this needs to be taken seriously". I agree with that statement and line of thinking. I still think there are many people that don't take this seriously enough. I also think the media is nuts. The two are not mutually exclusive.


----------



## deadheadskier (Mar 26, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> If.  And it wont.
> 
> Vermont has a strong natural defense against massive, large scale numerical, communicable pandemic disease; it's called geography.


Likely so, but are you so confident to claim my suggested state capacity of about 50 serious Covid-19 patient rooms can't become overwhelmed by this? 

I don't know that answer myself. I can only report that the people I talk with are scared shitless and scrambling for every bit of equipment that they can get their hands on. 

This very hospital I was referring to I helped setup a temporary 8 bed ICU unit last week.  I'm doing another one in NH tomorrow. I've got a couple hospitals in Maine looking to do the same next week. 

We are the number three player in the business and are getting calls left and right for product from hospitals who traditionalky use the two top players because those companies have no equipment left in inventory to sell.

It will be months before the manufacturing capacity of the big players in the industry can catch up.  

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 26, 2020)

cdskier said:


> *Someone else commented earlier (either in this thread or another one today) something along the lines of "you can think the media is over-hyping things and also think this needs to be taken seriously".* I agree with that statement and line of thinking. I still think there are many people that don't take this seriously enough. I also think the media is nuts. The two are not mutually exclusive.



That was me.  It's still my belief.

  It's rare I see something in the media not bases on worst-case scenarios or unrealistic worst-case modeling which we already know is not going to be correct.  I'm still seeing media peeps speculating over 1 Million to 2 Millions US deaths, which is beyond absurd.  

They're stirring fear & panic irresponsibly, which doesnt help because it's probably part of why infected people from NYC are fleeing to uninfected areas.  Cuomo's not helping either, he's very dramatic & saying terrifying things like thousands of New Yorkers are going to die because he needs 30,000 ventilators.   The thing is, nobody ever flipping asks him how he arrives at that math, as in another post here I noted how I have no clue how he gets there.


----------



## cdskier (Mar 26, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> That was me.  It's still my belief.
> 
> It's rare I see something in the media not bases on worst-case scenarios or unrealistic worst-case modeling which we already know is not going to be correct.  I'm still seeing media peeps speculating over 1 Million to 2 Millions US deaths, which is beyond absurd.
> 
> They're stirring fear & panic irresponsibly, which doesnt help because it's probably part of why infected people from NYC are fleeing to uninfected areas.  Cuomo's not helping either, he's very dramatic & saying terrifying things like thousands of New Yorkers are going to die because he needs 30,000 ventilators.   The thing is, nobody ever flipping asks him how he arrives at that math, as in another post here I noted how I have no clue how he gets there.



Fully agree with your comments here. Would be nice if the media would stick with reporting simply facts. But I guess that doesn't sell enough ads...


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 26, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> Likely so, but* are you so confident to claim my suggested state capacity of about 50 serious Covid-19 patient rooms can't become overwhelmed by this?*



YES!

Let's do the math, and intentionally make it unrealistically bad.  You approximated pop. @ 600k, let's go higher with the real pop. of 623k.

NYC pop. is exactly 8M more at 8,623,000.  As of today, they have 21,393 cases, or 1 in 403 people.

It we extract that 1 in 403 people to Vermont, which is RIDICULOUS because people in VT dont all live on top of one another a few miles apart like in NYC, but whatever, I'm doing this to show the silliness of the math.

You get 623,000 / 403 = 1,553 COVID19+ Vermonters.

They say just slightly less than 5% will need ICU (we'll go with 5%), and that's 5% of 1,553 = 78 ICU patients


----------



## icecoast1 (Mar 26, 2020)

This virus isnt going anywhere until an effective vaccine is developed.  Best case scenario for that is the end of this year.  We supposed to just hide in our homes until then, or maybe longer?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 26, 2020)

cdskier said:


> Fully agree with your comments here. *Would be nice if the media would stick with reporting simply facts.* But I guess that doesn't sell enough ads...



Would be nice if someone in the media has the balls to raise their hand and say, _"Governor Cuomo, for a week now you've been saying NYC will very soon need 30,000 ventilators, or thousands of New Yorkers will soon die.  What basis or who's model are you using for that math?"_ 

 FYI, for 30,000 vents you need 7% of NYC's 8.63M population to have COVID19, which is 600,000, or about 580,000 more NYC residents than have coronavirus today.   And technically, you need quite a bit MORE than that figure because not all 30,000 will simultaneously be in use, as once someone comes off vent (or dies) the machine can be reused.


----------



## deadheadskier (Mar 26, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> YES!
> 
> Let's do the math, and intentionally make it unrealistically bad.  You approximated pop. @ 600k, let's go higher with the real pop. of 623k.
> 
> ...



I'm tired, so if I'm not following your math correctly, apologies.  But I said VT has a capacity of about 50 ICU patients.   You just said they could reach 78.  That's a problem that will result in rationed care, which was the point I was making.  The caregivers in VT are concerned with limited  capacity.  

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## deadheadskier (Mar 26, 2020)

Also, one thing I want to clarify here BG is I hope you are using the term ICU loosely when calculating a medical facilitily's need for Vents.  Vents are used all over a hospital, not just in the ICU. 

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## VTKilarney (Mar 26, 2020)

Vermont’s latest modeling shows just barely enough hospital beds and not quite enough ventilators.  (Don’t ask me how I know.)

With a forecasted peak at the end of April, there is time to get the ventilators.

Overall, Vermont is in pretty good shape.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 26, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> I'm tired, so if I'm not following your math correctly, apologies.  But I said VT has a capacity of about 50 ICU patients.  * You just said they could reach 78.*  That's a problem that will result in rationed care, which was the point I was making.  The caregivers in VT are concerned with limited  capacity.



No, I used outrageously silly numbers as if all 600k+ Vermonters lived right on top of one another like they're in one big city, and even then I could only  get to 78.  I guess I should have explained that better.

  Point is, a logger in the northeast kingdom or a farmer in Chester does not have the same likelihood of getting COVID19 as the convenience store work next to the Essex train stop from NYC (which should be shut down) or the 13 college kids in a Burlington apartment building sharing the same common entry door handle.  

And remember, this is all with the current NYC infection rate of 1:403 (as of today), which VT will never hit.

Even if the math gets way worse (and it may), I cant imagine VT being in bad shape.


----------



## VTKilarney (Mar 26, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Point is, a logger in the northeast kingdom or a farmer in Chester does not have the same likelihood of getting COVID19 as the convenience store work next to the Essex train stop from NYC (which should be shut down).



The Amtrak Vermonter has been shut down.

https://www.mynbc5.com/article/vermont-gov-suspends-amtrak-service-because-of-covid-19/31935541#


----------



## JimG. (Mar 26, 2020)

cdskier said:


> Fully agree with your comments here. Would be nice if the media would stick with reporting simply facts. But I guess that doesn't sell enough ads...



Heh...the days of Walter Cronkite and Harry Reasoner are long gone.

Journalism today is as yellow as piss.


----------



## prsboogie (Mar 27, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> I know its all doom and gloom out there, been following the stats for the coronavirus(I use to do this storm tracking in the winter).  Anyway if you look at china, the outbreak started December 31st.  by the middle of February companies we starting to open and most went back to work .  That runs about 45 days. And today they just announced that Itlay's new cases have been slowing down for couple days.  Again there's ran about 45 days.  If you look at the United States the first case in Washington was the sometime around the first week of February.  If it runs it course like the other countries, it would reach its peak in around the first week of April.  Italy death rate was much higher because 3 generation of families normally live in the same complex.   Majority of the deaths in Italy are people over the age of 70.  The death rate in the united state currently is running 1.3% of known cases.  Doctors have even come out saying they believe the infection rate is 20 to 30 times more than being reported.  This thing will never go away.  Very similar to malaria.  There are always going to be outbreaks of this disease but the cases will be smaller and smaller.
> Also I think the media way overhyped this thing.  Yes the death rate will be higher than the flu but we haven't built up an emmune system yet.  I do think its a bad situation but not as much as the media are over hyping it.


The only thing I will disagree with is the rest of the world knows how to lock down. Had we taken it seriously and sheltered in place for 2-3 weeks like China and Italy (without needing to be arrested) I would say we would have likely been spared the worst of it. Problem is while some took the warnings seriously many did not and still are not. Maybe what was done is enough but I'm not sure. I hope im very wrong, time will tell.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk


----------



## Smellytele (Mar 27, 2020)

Really wished they would have closed nyc down and made it like in escape from New York. No way in, no way out. Where is Snake Plimpkon?


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## Edd (Mar 27, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> Really wished they would have closed nyc down and made it like in escape from New York. No way in, no way out. Where is Snake Plimpkon?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Um, that’s Plissken, and he wants to meet The Duke. 


Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone


----------



## Smellytele (Mar 27, 2020)

Edd said:


> Um, that’s Plissken, and he wants to meet The Duke.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone



Right the duke played by Issac Hayes I think.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 27, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> The Amtrak Vermonter has been shut down.



Good, Vermont should have done that a week earlier.

I doubt drug mules are practiced at Social Distancing.


----------



## nhskier1969 (Mar 27, 2020)

Great article concerning the CoronaVirus
It is said that, when this is all said in done the death toll with be between .5% to 1%

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...death-rates-from-coronavirus-can-be-deceiving


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 27, 2020)

nhskier1969 said:


> Great article concerning the CoronaVirus
> It is said that, when this is all said in done the death toll with be between .5% to 1%
> 
> https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...death-rates-from-coronavirus-can-be-deceiving



I've been saying that for weeks.  Great article; I'm genuinely & pleasantly surprised that came out of NPR.


----------



## 1dog (Mar 27, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> I've been saying that for weeks.  Great article; I'm genuinely & pleasantly surprised that came out of NPR.



with $75M coming their way. . .  maybe they invested in objective journalists. . 

https://www.cnsnews.com/article/was...on-coronavirus-bill-gives-additional-75000000


----------



## icecoast1 (Mar 27, 2020)

1dog said:


> with $75M coming their way. . .  maybe they invested in objective journalists. .
> 
> https://www.cnsnews.com/article/was...on-coronavirus-bill-gives-additional-75000000




I'm glad in the middle of a global pandemic, the government was able to save Big Bird again


----------



## 1dog (Mar 27, 2020)

Right,huh? 

I have a few clients who work for the local PBS in Boston. Always complaining they don't get enough $$ and are on a shoe-string budget.

They've been saying the government has been cutting for years. . . .my response has always been it should be cut out completely. 

Why not stand on what the public actually wants? Well, as you can imagine, these folks haven't heard of fre market ideals so they were a bit taken back.


Until I posed your point - 'lets see, the public $$ goes into a ( supposedly) objective, neutral news and entertainment broadcast. We made Jim Henson billions of dollars. . . .  may he rest in peace. . .why shouldn't PBS grab a share of that recuuring income to fund the other thinghs that apparently don't have enough donors to support?' 

They had a normal response ' yeaaaaah, why shouldn't PBS be self-sufficient with quality products like Sesame Street that PBS launched and made famous?' 

As for the 'no advertising' crowd - every program is 'sponsored' by 'big _________ ' fill in the blank. There is little to no difference.

If the numbers aren't there to support the programs. . . . they should die on the vine.


----------

