# Next Two Weeks...



## SnowRider (Feb 5, 2009)

Accuweather is not accurate short-term/long-term but they do give a hint of when warm/cold spells will come.  

Unfortunatly this next couple weeks doesn't look so good for high temperatures and with my vacation week right around the corner the forecast is pretty important.

Anybody got any ideas on the next couple of weeks?


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## JD (Feb 5, 2009)

It will b cold.  It may be warmer then 32.  It could snow, it might rain a little or alot.  There will b some sun and or clouds.


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## drjeff (Feb 5, 2009)

Models are trying to spin a return to the cold/stormy in the 8 to 10 day out range, sounds like a good excuse to start another thread! :idea: And do remember that the last couple of years in the Northeast that Holidays in February + March and even April have been very generous to us snow enthuiasts!


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## 4aprice (Feb 6, 2009)

We're getting the thaw that I thought we would get.  Very very rare to go through a season without one.  Obviously the hope is we get a stormy cold period late Feb/March setting us up for a great spring.  Its gone that way many years so hopefully this year won't be different.  I am going to enjoy the warmer weather this weekend after yesterday which I thought was brutal cold.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 6, 2009)

4aprice said:


> We're getting the thaw that I thought we would get.  Very very rare to go through a season without one.  Obviously the hope is we get a stormy cold period late Feb/March setting us up for a great spring.  Its gone that way many years so hopefully this year won't be different.  I am going to enjoy the warmer weather this weekend after yesterday which I thought was brutal cold.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



this weekend is hardly a thaw..it looks like low 40s for the Poconos..


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## St. Bear (Feb 6, 2009)

It's supposed to touch 50 in Jersey.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 6, 2009)

St. Bear said:


> It's supposed to touch 50 in Jersey.



In the mountains???  Touch 50 and then go down into the 20s at night..


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## St. Bear (Feb 6, 2009)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> In the mountains???  Touch 50 and then go down into the 20s at night..



I'm on your side here, it's not like I'll be wearing shorts all weekend.  But 50 degrees and sunny all day long is going to cause some snow to melt.  Then when it's 20 degrees at night, it was freeze and cause the trails to ice up.  Isn't that the very definition of a freeze/thaw cycle?

I'm not trying to be a dick, maybe I just don't understand the terminology.  I am still a newbie afterall.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 6, 2009)

St. Bear said:


> I'm on your side here, it's not like I'll be wearing shorts all weekend.  But 50 degrees and sunny all day long is going to cause some snow to melt.  Then when it's 20 degrees at night, it was freeze and cause the trails to ice up.  Isn't that the very definition of a freeze/thaw cycle?
> 
> I'm not trying to be a dick, maybe I just don't understand the terminology.  I am still a newbie afterall.




That will make for perfect spring conditions..hard frozen cord in the morning is so freaking fast..then it will soften up a bit but still be fast..corn snow..before some smashed tators..much better than squeaky slow packed powder..


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## ERJ-145CA (Feb 6, 2009)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> In the mountains???  Touch 50 and then go down into the 20s at night..



In the mountains of Jersey it is forecast to be in the mid to upper 40's on Saturday and Sunday and also Wed. and Thurs., 30's on the other days.  10 day has 20's most nights.  Doesn't seem too bad to me, I guess we got a little spoiled by all the cold weather.  Hidden Valley was blowing snow all day yesterday, I presume in preparation for the relatively warm air.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 6, 2009)

ERJ-145CA said:


> In the mountains of Jersey it is forecast to be in the mid to upper 40's on Saturday and Sunday and also Wed. and Thurs., 30's on the other days.  10 day has 20's most nights.  Doesn't seem too bad to me, I guess we got a little spoiled by all the cold weather.  Hidden Valley was blowing snow all day yesterday, I presume in preparation for the relatively warm air.



I'm looking forward to ditching the jacket this weekend and skiing in a fleece..maybe it will be mushy enough to bring out the Blowers..


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## hardline (Feb 7, 2009)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> I'm looking forward to ditching the jacket this weekend and skiing in a fleece..maybe it will be mushy enough to bring out the Blowers..



i actually got out my spring shell. its going to be a fun weekend.


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## Zand (Feb 7, 2009)

We were due for this sooner or later. It'll be sad to see the good conditions go when the next freee hits but be glad we finally have a winter where it's not 65 degrees half the time. I'm actually kinda glad its going for 50 Sunday so I can get this crap out of my driveway that's been here for a month. Long range is starting to show colder weather coming back after next week so we'll be fine.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 7, 2009)

Today still started out in the low teens here..


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## AMAC2233 (Feb 7, 2009)

This is much more promising. 

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather


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## ZYDECORICH (Feb 7, 2009)

AMAC2233 said:


> This is much more promising.
> 
> http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather



accuweather.com's "next weeks peak" sounds promising. I'm telling you that voodoo lady i saw in new orleans was spooky (see other thread) . the storm from the 18th to the 20th is coming!


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## tcharron (Feb 7, 2009)

My concern is like next friday and NCP.  :-(


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## ERJ-145CA (Feb 7, 2009)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> Today still started out in the low teens here..



It was 6 degrees here in NW NJ when I got up at 8:15 but it warmed up quick to about 45 by 2:00.


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## ZYDECORICH (Feb 7, 2009)

ERJ-145CA said:


> It was 6 degrees here in NW NJ when I got up at 8:15 but it warmed up quick to about 45 by 2:00.



correct. here in west milford it was 12 at 7:30 and got to 45 by 2:30 or so. its 38 now. i heard its gonna be colder after 2pm sunday, then moderate. maybe not so warm for so long.


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## riverc0il (Feb 8, 2009)

I woke this morning to the dreadful sound of *drip* *drip*.

After who knows how many days straight, we are finally above freezing here in Ashland, NH. And not just any above freezing. 45 degrees above freezing with serious melting and a few sprinkles. Back down to 39 currently, but the damage has likely been done. 

On the bright side, this teens for a high stuff was getting seriously old and it is nice to see some pavement showing through in our drive way and the local road. Haven't seen that in months.

Mountains in the north are probably fairing at least a little better. Call this our January thaw a week late. Let's get it over with and get back into a storm cycle and I'll be content.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 8, 2009)

It looks like Northern Vermont got spared any rain or warmth..snowing at Stowe and Mad River Glen right now..


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## Johnskiismore (Feb 8, 2009)

We had snow squalls moving through Cannon this morning, but south of the notch there was light rain and temps reached 40F.  Yuk.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 8, 2009)

It just cooled off from 54 to 52 degrees here..6 straight hours in the 50s..the snowpack was nice while it lasted..anything left will freeze solid with overnight temperatures in the 20s..


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## Johnskiismore (Feb 8, 2009)

I can only imagine the black ice that will form all over the region tonight!


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 8, 2009)

Johnskiismore said:


> I can only imagine the black ice that will form all over the region tonight!



I imagine the wooden steps outside of my building will be slick with frozen condensation..


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## KingM (Feb 9, 2009)

We did get some r*** on the valley floor up here, but MRG said it was all snow (only about 1-2 wet inches, but still) on the mountain. I'm really crossing my fingers that we survive this thaw this week without a repeat of the pre-Christmas fiasco. 

As a skier, I'm not too worried. I've had some great skiing over the last month and even if we get hammered, there's still a lot of winter left.

As a business owner in a lousy economy, it would be great to have a solid Presidents Week.


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## loafer89 (Feb 9, 2009)

The skiing took a hit, especially the natural snowcover and the glades. It's was into the middle 40's at Smugglers Notch well into saturday night.

There are plenty of trails at Smugglers with thin cover and this week will not help them.

Burke got rain on the lower 1/3 of the mountain and about 1.5" of snow on the upper mountain. The glades are in rough shape except where skiers have broken up the crust and blended in the new snow.

Generally there is about 50% more snow in Northeastern Vermont, than in Northwestern Vermont, IMO. Saint Johnsbury has tons of snow.


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## billski (Feb 9, 2009)

Everything I'm hearing says the upper elevations of the Northern Mountains were spared.  Just gotta be careful going down the lower half....


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## JD (Feb 9, 2009)

All the beautiful POW is now crunchy.  We need snow for natural conditions to ski well.


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## billski (Feb 9, 2009)

How to make a nice, crunchy ice topping:


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 9, 2009)

I was checking in granite bases earlier today in my polo shirt..it felt like 70 degrees in the sun..this current weather is more typical winter weather for PA..


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 10, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> After who knows how many days straight, we are finally above freezing here in Ashland, NH. And not just any above freezing. *45 degrees above freezing *with serious melting and a few sprinkles. Back down to 39 currently, but the damage has likely been done.
> .
> .
> Mountains in the north are probably fairing at least a little better. Call this our January thaw a week late. Let's get it over with and get back into a storm cycle and I'll be content.



45 degrees above freezing! that's 77 degrees! Time for a BBQ 

Unfortunately, it looks like last weekend's warmup was just a prelude to what's coming this week. 36-48 hours above freezing is not going to be good for the snowpack no matter who you are. Hopefully, the warm doesn't come with a lot of wind since that is what will melt the snow the fastest.

This is the type of ill timed crappy weather that solidifies the "icy" reputation of the northeast mountains. If people who only ski on the vacation weeks had only been up here for the last month and a half, there was barely a patch of icy to be found. Now, as the hoards are set to come north all we are going to hear is "the Northeast sucks, it's always sooooo icy" :roll: I'm going to Colorado next year :dunce:. 
No amount of grooming is going to bring back the excellent powder/packed powder surfaces we have been enjoying. Only 2 feet of snow is going to do that.


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## hammer (Feb 10, 2009)

Guess it's time to get a fresh tune...:roll:

Hopefully the conditions will hold out enough to get the people out next week.  It's the next month after the vacation week that I'm concerned about...


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## billski (Feb 10, 2009)

from_the_NEK said:


> 45 degrees above freezing! that's 77 degrees! Time for a BBQ
> 
> Unfortunately, it looks like last weekend's warmup was just a prelude to what's coming this week. 36-48 hours above freezing is not going to be good for the snowpack no matter who you are. Hopefully, the warm doesn't come with a lot of wind since that is what will melt the snow the fastest.
> 
> ...



+1.  I also hope it doesn't drive anyone out of business.  They had a crappy new year's weekend too.


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## tequiladoug (Feb 10, 2009)

I'm headed to mount snow tomorrow...suppose to almost hit 50


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 11, 2009)

tequiladoug said:


> I'm headed to mount snow tomorrow...suppose to almost hit 50



hero snow..my favorite conditions next to powder...this week of warmth has been a treat from the normally icy conditions here in PA>.


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## billski (Feb 11, 2009)

tequiladoug said:


> I'm headed to mount snow tomorrow...suppose to almost hit 50



Take a pic of your suntan!  :beer:


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## riverc0il (Feb 11, 2009)

Wow. Went out for lunch without a jacket. Had on a long sleeve and felt over dressed. Suck! That was followed by rain, adding insult to injury.


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 11, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> Wow. Went out for lunch without a jacket. Had on a long sleeve and felt over dressed. Suck! That was followed by rain, adding insult to injury.



Just looked at the GFS loop for the next two-three weeks. It doesn't look good. It doesn't look like much precip of any type. Mostly just cold. We are going to be stuck with whatever surface results from this storm for some time. Hopefully something unexpected happens and sends a few storms our way. We are really going to need snow (don't we always  )

Yea, 1,000 posts!


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## tequiladoug (Feb 11, 2009)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> hero snow..my favorite conditions next to powder...this week of warmth has been a treat from the normally icy conditions here in PA>.



Mount Snow was a blast today, sunny at the bottom and foggy up top which finally burned off at noon...which is when they finally dropped a bunch of ropes on the North face. The snow was nice and soft! A light rain started at 300 so I called it a day, but it was already stopped at 330 ...my car showed 40 degrees when I hit the road. 

I did notice Stratton definitely has a lot more snow (I was there Monday), at Mt. snow there was a few places (some big) with the ground poking thru compared to zero spots at Stratton.


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## billski (Feb 12, 2009)

It's too hot out.


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## jaywbigred (Feb 12, 2009)

billski said:


> It's too hot out.



Agreed. Gross.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 12, 2009)

All I know is as long as Blue mountain is open..I'll be skiing everyday for the next two weeks..since I'm trying to put together a skistreak..Today will be 7 days in a row..


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## ERJ-145CA (Feb 12, 2009)

billski said:


> It's too hot out.



At least it's 15 degrees colder than yesterday.


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## SKidds (Feb 12, 2009)

Wish the cold would hurry along just a little more.  Pushing 4:00 and it looks like a lot of the north country is still seeing a cold rain.  In looking at the satellite the pink and blue is coming, so hopefully it changes over to snow soon.

From this evening forward the next two weeks (+) looks good.  Once it dips below freezing today there won't be a place in the north country that sees above freezing temperatures for at least the next two weeks.  Just need some storms to start rolling through............


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## BigJay (Feb 12, 2009)

Snowing at Jay as of 1PM thursday...

Might get some good turns out of this!


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## reefer (Feb 12, 2009)

BigJay said:


> Snowing at Jay as of 1PM thursday...
> 
> Might get some good turns out of this!



Thanks for the update. Feel free to chime in again later. I'm trying to decide if and where to go tomorrow. How's the wind up there?


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## riverc0il (Feb 12, 2009)

BigJay said:


> Snowing at Jay as of 1PM thursday...
> 
> Might get some good turns out of this!



Yea, I got an email yesterday from Jay Peak promoting a "BIG STORM" and the next line said 3-6" expected :roll: Which may be some of the best skiing in New England come this weekend, but I really had to laugh at the normal "typically Jay 3-6"" being a "BIG STORM". Which means it is either President's Day weekend, there hasn't been new snow in almost three weeks, or New England has just experienced a rainy thaw. Or all of the above.


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## billski (Feb 12, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> Yea, I got an email yesterday from Jay Peak promoting a "BIG STORM" and the next line said 3-6" expected :roll: Which may be some of the best skiing in New England come this weekend, but I really had to laugh at the normal "typically Jay 3-6"" being a "BIG STORM". Which means it is either President's Day weekend, there hasn't been new snow in almost three weeks, or New England has just experienced a rainy thaw. Or all of the above.



Gee Mr. Steve, you're seeming a bit jaded over the past couple days about snow conditions in general... seems monsoons in February aren't sitting well with you either?   A little too much water in your boots?    You're usually so calm, rational and thoughtful about matters skiing.   Hey I've gone through the three phases - anger, denial, acceptance.    I've now moved into delusional and all is happy again


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## riverc0il (Feb 12, 2009)

billski said:


> Gee Mr. Steve, you're seeming a bit jaded over the past couple days about snow conditions in general... seems monsoons in February aren't sitting well with you either?   A little too much water in your boots?    You're usually so calm, rational and thoughtful about matters skiing.   Hey I've gone through the three phases - anger, denial, acceptance.    I've now moved into delusional and all is happy again


Well, what can I say. It is mid-February and I am sitting at only 13 days. Granted the best ski months of March and April are still yet to come and late December and January are months that I can not take many vacation days. This season seemed like it was well on its way to recovery in January but I don't recall a February this dire during the current decade. Something like this in January when bases are still being developed is typical and acceptable. But a massive February melt down is the pits. :angry:

I hope this is a BIG STORM and Jay gets those much needed 6" cause I would rather be skiing this Saturday than sitting around the house for a 2nd weekend in a row. Still haven't had a ski day in February yet with January 31st being my last day. At least that day was a ridiculous boot deep powder day.


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## dropKickMurphy (Feb 13, 2009)

It always amazes me how quickly the conditions change in the northeast...from one extreme to the other.

6 days ago(Sat), we were skiing on packed dry styrofoam at Cannon. 

A day later, as we walked into the Wildcat pub at the end of the day hearing everyone complaining about the crappy conditions, my buddy Tom and I had to laugh. We had spent most of the early part of the day making nice runs off the Tomcat lift (the Wildcat lift stopped running around 10 due to winds/ice at the summit). For a good part of the day, there were plenty of decent conditions to be found off the Tomcat. As they got worse by midafternoon, we moved over to the Bobcat area and were able to find good snow for the rest of the afternoon.

We had been in the 6 week Sunday 'All Mountain' program...last Sunday was the last class. Over the 6 weeks we got a good taste of every condition that NE has to offer. A couple of spectacular power days, wind-free bluebird days, wind-blown ice, frozen rain. Not one of those 6 days did we feel the need to quit early due to conditions. 

Besides my 6 days at WC, the conditions for my other 7 days of skiing have overall been superb. December powder days at Stratton, Cannon, and Bretton Woods. A great power day at Black. Packed powder days at Wachusett and Cannon. Out of 13 days, the only day that we decided to quit early (2:30) was a windy, icy day at Waterville Valley.

So overall, the conditions we've had...up to now...have been superb. But I guess our luck has finally changed, as the conditions have fallen apart almost overnight.

For us, we couldn't have planned it any better if we had a crystal ball. Tom and I had decided a while back to take a  hiatus from skiing between 2/9 to 2/21 Our non-skiing wives were getting tired of being left behind every weekend, and we wanted to avoid the President's Week crowds. It looks like we picked the right time to take our break.

Plus, we had already booked the Alta Peruvian Lodge from 2/21 through 2/28. While our conditions in NE have been going down the toilet for the last week, Alta has picked up close to 5 feet of fresh powder...and the forecast shows nothing but snow days for the foreseeable future. Our trip is still a week away, but it looks like a very high probability that we'll be hitting awesome conditions.

My plan has been to get 6-8 days in March/early April to hit some of my NE favorites that I haven't gotten to this season. Stowe, Bush, maybe Saddleback. If my string of good luck continues, we'll be hit with a couple of monster storms right at the beginning of March to set us up for another great late season.

Let's not forget that as quickly as our conditions change for the worse, they can..and do..go from crap to epic just as quickly. At the beginning of April 2007, we were heading north for one last ski trip. The outlook was bleak as the ground was almost totally bare. By the next morning there was a good 2 1/2 feet of dry powder on the ground, and it kept on coming. We spent the next 2 days in thigh deep powder at Wildcat and the River. 

So it's way too early to give up hope for the rest of this season.


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## 4aprice (Feb 13, 2009)

dropKickMurphy said:


> .
> So it's way too early to give up hope for the rest of this season.



Oh god yeah.  There's already rumors of storms on the horizon.  We're just entering what usually is the best time of the year.  Accounts I've read have said while some snow pack up north was lost it is not an entire wash out.  We lost ours here but thanks to good snowmaking we don't depend on it anyways and I will be skiing this weekend. (Camelback still 100% open)  I've not lost hope on my March/April plans up north.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## billski (Feb 13, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> Well, what can I say. It is mid-February and I am sitting at only 13 days. Granted the best ski months of March and April are still yet to come and late December and January are months that I can not take many vacation days. This season seemed like it was well on its way to recovery in January but I don't recall a February this dire during the current decade. Something like this in January when bases are still being developed is typical and acceptable. But a massive February melt down is the pits. :angry:
> 
> I hope this is a BIG STORM and Jay gets those much needed 6" cause I would rather be skiing this Saturday than sitting around the house for a 2nd weekend in a row. Still haven't had a ski day in February yet with January 31st being my last day. At least that day was a ridiculous boot deep powder day.



I'm with you all the way Steve.  I'll take any BIG STORM, anytime anywhere.  Too early to call (or even be thinking about)  an end to the season.  My bag is packed and sitting by the door. Problem is, I've got my schedule carved out for skiing right now, but thanks to the weather and illness, I'm bagging it until mid-next week.   Looks like I have time for a little edge sharpening this V-days' morning.  I do regret the loss of base in mid Feb.

Always best to be forward-looking optimistically.  Perhaps delusional, but hey, that's our job!


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## 4aprice (Feb 13, 2009)

billski said:


> Always best to be forward-looking optimistically.  Perhaps delusional, but hey, that's our job!



Bill:

I'm so optimistic that come the end of the season I think we look back on this as a bump in the road or halftime.  If I'm wrong I'll gladly fall on my sword.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 13, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> Yea, I got an email yesterday from Jay Peak promoting a "BIG STORM" and the next line said 3-6" expected :roll: Which may be some of the best skiing in New England come this weekend, but I really had to laugh at the normal "typically Jay 3-6"" being a "BIG STORM". Which means it is either President's Day weekend, there hasn't been new snow in almost three weeks, or New England has just experienced a rainy thaw. Or all of the above.



But you only go skiing when there's new snow..13 days and you live in NH and have a season pass...wa wa wa weaksauce..I have 13 days in the past 2.5 weeks..


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## riverc0il (Feb 13, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> I hope this is a BIG STORM and Jay gets those much needed 6" cause I would rather be skiing this Saturday than sitting around the house for a 2nd weekend in a row. Still haven't had a ski day in February yet with January 31st being my last day. At least that day was a ridiculous boot deep powder day.


Only 2-3" at Jay and they are reporting it blew a bit too. Guess I will not be skiing for a third straight week. :???:


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## riverc0il (Feb 13, 2009)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> But you only go skiing when there's new snow


That is absolutely untrue.


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 13, 2009)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> But you only go skiing when there's new snow..13 days and you live in NH and have a season pass...wa wa wa weaksauce..I have 13 days in the past 2.5 weeks..



I'll take Steve's 13 days over 40 of your days of playing hide and seek with Blue Mtns patrol any day.


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