# Storm Speculation Thread - Saturday 25 Jan 2014



## WJenness (Jan 22, 2014)

Saw someone mentioned in the other thread that they liked having separate threads for each storm...

I do too, so I thought I'd start this.

What do you guys think???


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## Puck it (Jan 22, 2014)

It will snow.  Some where. And probably not where it matters!!!!!


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## JDMRoma (Jan 22, 2014)

Perfect timing for me.........its my B Day and all Im asking for is SNOW  !
Ill be at Cannon for 8am Saturday...........Sunday and Monday too !


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## St. Bear (Jan 22, 2014)

Puck it said:


> It will snow. Some where. And probably not where it matters!!!!!



Now, now, don't start getting cynical on me.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2014)

Meh.    Not really a "storm" and not big enough to warrant a thread. 

 Vermont may get 3 to 5 at best I suppose, but, again, meh'ish.


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## hammer (Jan 22, 2014)

Latest discussion from NWS isn't too promising:



> LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SATURDAY AND WILL DRAG ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. ENOUGH WAA AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS WITH THE FRONT HOWEVER.


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## deadheadskier (Jan 22, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Meh.    Not really a "storm" and not big enough to warrant a thread.  Vermont may get 3 to 5 I suppose, but, again, meh'ish.



I've given up on being greedy.  I'd be psyched if the Whites got 3 to 5.   I'd prefer a consistent pattern of small snowfall events and consistent cold than the bigger storms we've gotten so far this season followed by warm ups.


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## cbackman (Jan 22, 2014)

Will be at jay peak on Saturday, hopefully the jay cloud is present and dumping


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 22, 2014)

Not really a storm, more like the atmosphere get kinda damp as the 1st batch of arctic air leaves, then gets wrung out as the next batch of dry air rolls in.

If you want snow, it'll do the trick.

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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 22, 2014)

Monday has much more potential than this.


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## St. Bear (Jan 22, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Monday has much more potential than this.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 22, 2014)

St. Bear said:


>



Classic accuweather. Trying to jump the gun on a system that isn't even on the continent yet haha.


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## St. Bear (Jan 22, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Classic accuweather. Trying to jump the gun on a system that isn't even on the continent yet haha.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



But they clearly labeled it as "Potential", so it's not irresponsible at all.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 22, 2014)

St. Bear said:


> But they clearly labeled it as "Potential", so it's not irresponsible at all.



True, but there's also the potential for snow the rest of the winter as well :wink: 

They might as well put up a map in the summer that says "potential for snow  on Christmas day in the north east!" 6 days is a long time and knowing these clipper systems, the tracks shift a ton this far out. No need spreading hype... Yet


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## St. Bear (Jan 22, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> They might as well put up a map in the summer that says "potential for snow on Christmas day in the north east!"



They actually kind of do that.  They put up a map with % chance of a white Christmas.


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## Wavewheeler (Jan 22, 2014)

St. Bear said:


>



Hopefully this goes further north!! Not good for us who already lost work yesterday and need to work Monday.


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## 4aprice (Jan 22, 2014)

St. Bear said:


>



Linda Church on WPIX 11 jumped on this one this morning.  Had a graphic with Light snow and said "take out the light".

Alex 

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Wavewheeler (Jan 22, 2014)

Hopefully "nonexistent" for my area! Anything can change. The foot of snow I have outside my window was "just a few flurries" 5 days ago.  I want it up north though! That would be awesome! 

The Shore always has the weirdest weather regardless...Ocean does strange things to the weather! The snow that dumped north in December turned to rain or was nonexistent here. That's what I want. 

In the REALLY long forecast 10 days out the end of next week looks interesting. For me, it should only snow Wed-Saturday when I have off.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 22, 2014)

Bernie Rayno is already pimping Monday out


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## catsup948 (Jan 22, 2014)

I think the Monday storm is tracking much further north than yesterdays.  Obviously a lot can change between now and then.  Accuweather is trying to hype another storm that could hit the I 95 corridor! 

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## ScottySkis (Jan 22, 2014)

Snow for the Catskills?


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2014)

I loathe weather-whores.  

The internet age has made it more about hype, webhits and increased webtraffic to generate advertising dollars (SEE: TWC naming winter storms).


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2014)

catsup948 said:


> *I think the Monday storm is tracking much further north than yesterdays.*  Obviously a lot can change between now and then.  Accuweather is trying to hype another storm that could hit the I 95 corridor!



I havent looked at Monday at all, havent even ran a single model, but it's not looking good according to one of the many folks I follow.



> On Monday, the pattern may support some  digging and some enhancement to a system them. Unlike last night's  storm, though, *the Monday system will take a more southerly track and  will be starved for moisture.* While several inches of snow could fall,  especially over Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, and New Jersey,* the snow  should dodge northern New England again.*



EDIT:  And another.



> a new severe  arctic front   drops into Plains / Midwest   reaches  East  coast  JAN 27-28 . The HIGH drops into  OK and TX.... and some sort of  Low forms over  the se   coast.   *The Low  appears to  clip eastern NC    and   se VA    with snow but misses the   most of   the Middle Atl**antic  and  New England.*   AS a general    rule    with the HIGH   over  OK /  Delta   that is  NOT  good  sign  for  Northeast snowstorms


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 22, 2014)

Yep, more snow in part of Delaware and Virginia than in my yard in Northern VT. I'm currently at 5" at my stake and that is only due to the 6.5" of super fluff that fell this weekend. That stuff will last 5 seconds if the temp gets above freezing. I'm currently taking bets on whether my stake makes it over 12" total depth (and remains there for at least 24 hrs) this winter.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 22, 2014)

I've actually been hearing the opposite. According to Amerixanwx, this storm looks great for northern New England.


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## billski (Jan 22, 2014)

Ya know what?  I'm going through withdrawal.  I'm just going to get out there this weekend and go ski somewhere dammit.  Once you've wasted a day whining, your never gonna get it back.  (full disclosure, I'm a no-snow-whiner).  Just do it...


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 22, 2014)

Monday could be a Miller B


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## billski (Jan 22, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Monday could be a Miller B
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


 and you ain't talking Bode!


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## Cornhead (Jan 22, 2014)

JDMRoma said:


> Perfect timing for me.........its my B Day and all Im asking for is SNOW  !
> Ill be at Cannon for 8am Saturday...........Sunday and Monday too !



Happy Birthday! I hope you get your wish!

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## Wavewheeler (Jan 22, 2014)

catsup948 said:


> I think the Monday storm is tracking much further north than yesterdays.  Obviously a lot can change between now and then.  Accuweather is trying to hype another storm that could hit the I 95 corridor!
> 
> Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk



Yeah, they get more hits that way.  I'm praying for it going north. Win-win. Still a ways off and according to NOAA the models are all over the place.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 22, 2014)

GFS going northwest on Monday


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## catsup948 (Jan 22, 2014)

I like the possibility of another pattern change end of next week according to GFS.  Big cold lets up so it seems but not too much. This is better for NNE than SNE.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> GFS going northwest on Monday



More than the 12z?   And what's the pcp?   The 12z wasnt very impressive.


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## steamboat1 (Jan 22, 2014)

All I know is it's colder than a witches tit outside now.


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## jack97 (Jan 23, 2014)

steamboat1 said:


> All I know is it's colder than a witches tit outside now.



lol.... I can reply to that in so many cynical ways.

I'm pumped.... going take tomorrow off and hit the moguls.


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## drjeff (Jan 23, 2014)

some seriously DRY air and a rapid pace are working against this weekends clipper being a big producer.  In the big scheme of things right now, this relatively active looking cold air/clipper pattern we're in could be just what we need to get the natural trails and trees back into play. Just get each one to put down a few inches and it will be game on again soon.  Just don't see the big major storm on the near horizon now, but a bunch of smaller ones will suffice and the fact that they seem to be lining up every 3 to 5 days or so isn't a bad thing either!


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## jrmagic (Jan 23, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> True, but there's also the potential for snow the rest of the winter as well :wink:
> 
> They might as well put up a map in the summer that says "potential for snow  on Christmas day in the north east!" 6 days is a long time and knowing these clipper systems, the tracks shift a ton this far out. No need spreading hype... Yet
> 
> ...



NY Metro TV is already mentioning the possibility of a big storm around the Superbowl. Isn't hyperbole wonderful? Lol


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## moresnow (Jan 23, 2014)

I'll take 3"-6" across the north. Slow and steady will get the base up in the woods and make the next big storm really fun.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/brutal-cold-and-snow-coming-to/3096509634001


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## Tin (Jan 23, 2014)

I'll take it. Hope for Tues/Weds's.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 23, 2014)

jrmagic said:


> NY Metro TV is already mentioning the possibility of a big storm around the Superbowl. Isn't hyperbole wonderful? Lol



Great day to go to Hunter.


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## Wavewheeler (Jan 23, 2014)

jrmagic said:


> NY Metro TV is already mentioning the possibility of a big storm around the Superbowl. Isn't hyperbole wonderful? Lol



Well, that would be interesting! If it's snowed out I'm going skiing. I have off the Monday after. 

Several years back I skied at Windham on Superbowl Sunday. The place was empty by 1pm.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 23, 2014)

Several years back I skied at Windham on Superbowl Sunday. The place was empty by 1pm.[/QUOTE]

I love going to normal crowds places on this dsy. Usually good deala and few people. I went to Mountsnow last year. It even better because New England was in the bowl. Crowds were gone by 12 last year.


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## Wavewheeler (Jan 23, 2014)

When I used to road race my Mustang I loved when our club would have a track event on Mother's Day because almost no one would go and I'd have the track practically to myself.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 23, 2014)

Saturday's going to be a dandy in the Greens. Tim Kelley calling for 8 inches minimum for Jay/ Stowe etc... 

Upslope FTW


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Saturday's going to be a dandy in the Greens. *Tim Kelley calling for 8 inches minimum *for Jay/ Stowe etc...
> 
> Upslope FTW



Minimum?    That's kindof bold of him.  He must be counting on the cold temperatures cranking out a crazy ratio like 25:1 or more.   Definitely possible I suppose given this ridiculous cold air incoming.  Parts of NJ got 30:1 the other day it was so cold, but that's kindof rare here.  God knows they can use it, pics of Jay Peak these days make you wanna cry.  Fingers crossed.....


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## Tin (Jan 24, 2014)

At this point any snow is great but that sort of snow will do nothing for a base that is needed on natural trails that currently have next to nothing on them.


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## gladerider (Jan 24, 2014)

8" sounds good

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## ScottySkis (Jan 24, 2014)

I hear 3 to 6 inches tonight for West Catskills. Wonder what our local forecasters think for tomorrow.


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## Savemeasammy (Jan 24, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Saturday's going to be a dandy in the Greens. Tim Kelley calling for 8 inches minimum for Jay/ Stowe etc...
> 
> Upslope FTW



This is great news to someone who is at Smuggs for the weekend!


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## MadMadWorld (Jan 24, 2014)

Savemeasammy said:


> This is great news to someone who is at Smuggs for the weekend!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Dude go ski!


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## MadMadWorld (Jan 24, 2014)

Tin said:


> At this point any snow is great but that sort of snow will do nothing for a base that is needed on natural trails that currently have next to nothing on them.



Any snow is good. Even if it is light it won't melt off quickly in this cold weather and eventually it will get packed down.


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## moresnow (Jan 24, 2014)

Tin said:


> At this point any snow is great but that sort of snow will do nothing for a base that is needed on natural trails that currently have next to nothing on them.



Wetter snow would be nice to build up the base, but any and all snow is good at this point.


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## billski (Jan 24, 2014)

From what I recollect, these are not the greatest temperatures to make snow at.  I think it's in the 20's, maybe...


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## 4aprice (Jan 24, 2014)

billski said:


> From what I recollect, these are not the greatest temperatures to make snow at.  I think it's in the 20's, maybe...



Its all wet bulb temp.  Camelback is under a snowmaking cloud right now so it can't be too bad.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## steamboat1 (Jan 24, 2014)

billski said:


> From what I recollect, these are not the greatest temperatures to make snow at.  I think it's in the 20's, maybe...



Killington doesn't agree. They're even blowing snow on Skye Hawk which I've never seen them do before. Pic from today.


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## billski (Jan 24, 2014)

steamboat1 said:


> Killington doesn't agree. They're even blowing snow on Skye Hawk which I've never seen them do before. Pic from today.
> 
> View attachment 10572


Not saying they shouldn't.  I'm quite delighted!  The implication is that it is less efficient/productive.


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## MadMadWorld (Jan 24, 2014)

billski said:


> Not saying they shouldn't.  I'm quite delighted!  The implication is that it is less efficient/productive.



I guess what is worse....inferior snow but will not melt off as quickly because of temps or better snow that will melt faster. I think either way it's a good sign!


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## Wavewheeler (Jan 24, 2014)

steamboat1 said:


> Killington doesn't agree. They're even blowing snow on Skye Hawk which I've never seen them do before. Pic from today.
> 
> View attachment 10572



They were blowing it on Skye when I was there this time last week too


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## fahz (Jan 24, 2014)

http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_englan...to-new-england-saturday-afternoonevening.html


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## Puck it (Jan 24, 2014)

billski said:


> From what I recollect, these are not the greatest temperatures to make snow at. I think it's in the 20's, maybe...




This is great weather to make snow.  Very little air needed.  Cuts the cost down.  Snow also is drier and can be push out sooner.
The risk is frozen vales and pipes.


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## catsup948 (Jan 24, 2014)

fahz said:


> http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_englan...to-new-england-saturday-afternoonevening.html



Any snow is good with me. 

Woodford, VT will get 7 inches out of this I know it!  Prospect Mountain is currently closed with a base of 0-2 inches!  Bad for a place that averages 150-175 inches of snow a year.

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## billski (Jan 25, 2014)

*the jay cloud is...happening!*

http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=QUE

3" and counting!


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 25, 2014)

Friend tells me that Stowe is snowing at a good clip and they are around 4 inches of fluff now.


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## Savemeasammy (Jan 25, 2014)

I'm at Smuggs where they are reporting 4-6.  I can believe it.  It's been snowing all day.  


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## JDMRoma (Jan 25, 2014)

Showed up at Cannon this morning at 7:30…Winds were Howling…..was told they had gust up to 60 mph at the summit !  Didn't think the tram would run so I parked at the Peabody lift……got inside and talked to a few peeps and was told that the Cannonball would most likely be on Wind hold…….so I picked up all my shit and RAN back to my car and Drove to BW.
Got to BW just after 8 and calm….no wind at all, suited up and hit the trails….everything was in great condition.
Wind did pick up around 10 but nothing serious and yes it started to snow…not much in the accumulation but still snowing when I left at 3.All trails skied really well, good coverage and more open trails……Lift lines not bad except near the base, outer lifts were pretty empty most of the day.
Looks like I will hit BW Again tomorrow unless the wind dies down, probably hit cannon on monday…….
Looks like Cannon was getting more snow driving through the notch…….hopefully the wind didn't blow it all off

Crazy Windy there…….


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## MadMadWorld (Jan 25, 2014)

So is anyone braving the cold weather tomorrow? It seems like everywhere is suffering the same fate.


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## fcksummer (Jan 25, 2014)

JDMRoma said:


> Showed up at Cannon this morning at 7:30…Winds were Howling…..was told they had gust up to 60 mph at the summit !  Didn't think the tram would run so I parked at the Peabody lift……got inside and talked to a few peeps and was told that the Cannonball would most likely be on Wind hold…….so I picked up all my shit and RAN back to my car and Drove to BW.
> Got to BW just after 8 and calm….no wind at all, suited up and hit the trails….everything was in great condition.
> Wind did pick up around 10 but nothing serious and yes it started to snow…not much in the accumulation but still snowing when I left at 3.All trails skied really well, good coverage and more open trails……Lift lines not bad except near the base, outer lifts were pretty empty most of the day.
> Looks like I will hit BW Again tomorrow unless the wind dies down, probably hit cannon on monday…….
> ...



I did the same thing except I didn't even bother stopping at cannon. The wind coming up though the notch was ridiculous and there website said it was going to get worse as the day went on. It was my first time at BW but it was fun! Seemed like things softened up later in the day too with some nice snow along the tree lines.


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## JDMRoma (Jan 25, 2014)

fcksummer said:


> I did the same thing except I didn't even bother stopping at cannon. The wind coming up though the notch was ridiculous and there website said it was going to get worse as the day went on. It was my first time at BW but it was fun! Seemed like things softened up later in the day too with some nice snow along the tree lines.



Guess I was Hell Bent on skiing Cannon again, last weekend was Great. Conditions were pretty Good at BW, I will head there again tomorrow …hope they pick  up some fresh overnight.

Should be a cold one…..good test of the cold weather gear !


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## WJenness (Jan 27, 2014)

JDMRoma said:


> Guess I was Hell Bent on skiing Cannon again, last weekend was Great. Conditions were pretty Good at BW, I will head there again tomorrow …hope they pick  up some fresh overnight.
> 
> Should be a cold one…..good test of the cold weather gear !



I ended up going to Cannon yesterday with some friends... All the lifts were turning and it was a very nice day... They were also POUNDING out the snow making.

Some of the main thoroughfares got pretty scrapped off late in the day, but everything off of Zoomer was still skiing well and the upper mountain wasn't bad either. The woods look close...


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## JDMRoma (Jan 27, 2014)

WJenness said:


> I ended up going to Cannon yesterday with some friends... All the lifts were turning and it was a very nice day... They were also POUNDING out the snow making.
> 
> Some of the main thoroughfares got pretty scrapped off late in the day, but everything off of Zoomer was still skiing well and the upper mountain wasn't bad either. The woods look close...



I went to Cannon again today, parking lot at the tram was Blowing big time….guy came out to the parking lot as I was pulling in and was told no tram and Very windy up top…….just kept on going up to BW and got the text around 9:50 that they closed for the day……good choice for me not hanging around but I really wanted to ski Cannon.
My days are not cycling correctly…….


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## MadMadWorld (Jan 27, 2014)

WJenness said:


> I ended up going to Cannon yesterday with some friends... All the lifts were turning and it was a very nice day... They were also POUNDING out the snow making.
> 
> Some of the main thoroughfares got pretty scrapped off late in the day, but everything off of Zoomer was still skiing well and the upper mountain wasn't bad either. The woods look close...



I've heard from multiple sources that there are a few tree shots that skied very good on Sunday. Just gotta know where all the snow blew.


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## WJenness (Jan 28, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> I've heard from multiple sources that there are a few tree shots that skied very good on Sunday. Just gotta know where all the snow blew.



Yep... I saw more than a couple sets of tracks in a few places... I stayed out of the woods though, having never skied at Cannon before, I didn't know what was lurking in any of the trees.


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## JDMRoma (Jan 28, 2014)

I should be there Friday to get a little more familiar with Cannon…..


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## MadMadWorld (Jan 28, 2014)

JDMRoma said:


> I should be there Friday to get a little more familiar with Cannon…..



Maybe some of the regulars can point you in the right direction.


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## Puck it (Jan 28, 2014)

JDMRoma said:


> I should be there Friday to get a little more familiar with Cannon…..



I will be there on Friday I think. Shoot me a PM


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## MadMadWorld (Jan 28, 2014)

WJenness said:


> Yep... I saw more than a couple sets of tracks in a few places... I stayed out of the woods though, having never skied at Cannon before, I didn't know what was lurking in any of the trees.



I haven't skied there in years but I plan on going up this Sunday to meet up with a few AZers and hopefully get shown around. If you make a trip shoot me a message


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 28, 2014)

This storm speculation thread would be a lot better if there was a storm to speculate about.


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## Tin (Jan 28, 2014)

Next Tuesday and Wednesday?


Seeing 3-5" for most places in NH and VT for Saturday afternoon/night.


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## JDMRoma (Jan 28, 2014)

Tin said:


> Next Tuesday and Wednesday?
> 
> 
> Seeing 3-5" for most places in NH and VT for Saturday afternoon/night.


this would be nice for Sunday…….


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## Wavewheeler (Jan 28, 2014)

Tin said:


> Next Tuesday and Wednesday?



Oh geez, the 2 days I'm working! What is it about this winter that it keeps snowing when I work? Hopefully it goes north and isn't coastal.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 28, 2014)

Tin said:


> Next Tuesday and Wednesday?



Hmm...that does look pretty interesting on the GFS.  

Awesome for n.VT, DAX, and n.NH on the Canadian model too, but issues with rain elsewhere.

Seriously, we have bone cold 90% of the winter, but a decent wave of energy might be incoming and THEN there may be problems with temps.  I may completely lose my patience with this winter should that happen.


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## Wavewheeler (Jan 28, 2014)

That's why I'm skiing the next two days. Because it's supposed to warm up down here and maybe rain. Gotta go while the going is good!


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## billski (Jan 29, 2014)

I'm gonna start a storm speculation thread for the week of February 2nd.  Even if there isn't a storm to speculate about!  We have diverged from the original title of this thread.


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## MadMadWorld (Jan 29, 2014)

billski said:


> I'm gonna start a storm speculation thread for the week of February 2nd.  Even if there isn't a storm to speculate about!  We have diverged from the original title of this thread.



A little birdie said the 4th but I have no idea


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## jrmagic (Jan 29, 2014)

Wavewheeler said:


> Oh geez, the 2 days I'm working! What is it about this winter that it keeps snowing when I work? Hopefully it goes north and isn't coastal.



Can you do us a favor and make the sacrifice and work every day through April so the rest of us can cash in on steady pow?


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## Wavewheeler (Jan 29, 2014)

LOL!  I actually want it to snow UP NORTH so I can work and then go skiing! These coastal storms suck and do nothing but ruin my livelihood and make it difficult to afford to go skiing. 

Yes, I'm praying VERY HARD for it snow up by you. All it's doing now is snowing here by me! Soon I will move to snow country and hopefully that will fix it!


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