# Weather 1/11 and beyond



## Abominable (Jan 8, 2014)

I'm fixin' to bail on plans to head to the Berkshires / S VT for the weekend.  Depending on where I look, I'm seeing a good chance of rain both days, possibly severe.  Hard to believe with the current temps....   any chance of it not pouring?  Anything look good on the horizon?  Anything brewing for MLK weekend?

Does anybody have any good news to share?


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## ScottySkis (Jan 8, 2014)

Book a flight to SLC. I Hear snowy Ridge has lots of powder in NY not far from Syracuse.


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## yeggous (Jan 8, 2014)

The good news is that the bulk of the ---- should fall overnight Saturday into Sunday. You may be able to sneak some turns in on Saturday morning and Sunday late morning into the afternoon. Even in that case it will be slushy.

I've got a trip booked to Stowe this weekend so I am not happy either. If I cancel now I still eat one night's rate. The tickets are prepaid voucher. I tried to go in December and the same thing happened.

It looks warm for the first half of the week. Beyond that is too far to give hope.


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## Savemeasammy (Jan 8, 2014)

Not that 40+ temps in January don't suck, but it could certainly soften up the snow for the weekend...


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## catsup948 (Jan 8, 2014)

Saturday through Tuesday will destroy whatever snow pack we have left.  Pattern change after that could be good for us.  Im hoping for lots of base for the AZ summit!

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## bigbog (Jan 8, 2014)

Looks like temps have been tumbling normally @night of late...


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## xwhaler (Jan 8, 2014)

I was thinking of going to Shawnee Peak or Ragged on Sunday......AM I better off bagging the wknd and watching football?

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## from_the_NEK (Jan 8, 2014)

Other than Saturday/Sunday which are supposed to rainy and warm, the next 7 days look to be just warm (upper 30's to low 40's) during the day and just below freezing at night. Sounds like perfect spring skiing to me.
Time to tap the maple trees too I guess :???:.


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## Wavewheeler (Jan 9, 2014)

I have reservations for skiing at Killington Tuesday, Wed, Thursday next week. Will there be any snow left after all the warm temps/rain over the weekend. Just figures after subzero temps all week it thaws out..  

Is it worth it to even come up? We live in NJ. 5 hour drive


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## Euler (Jan 9, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> Other than Saturday/Sunday which are supposed to rainy and warm, the next 7 days look to be just warm (upper 30's to low 40's) during the day and just below freezing at night. Sounds like perfect spring skiing to me.
> Time to tap the maple trees too I guess :???:.



Would be perfect spring skiing except that there is really no base to speak of


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## gladerider (Jan 9, 2014)

My annual pilgrimage to lake placid on mlk weekend looking as usual.  Ice rink after the January thaw, arrrgh.

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## gladerider (Jan 9, 2014)

I also heard a local weather man here in nyc metro mentioning a possibility of polar vortex for that weekend.  Hope it's not true

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## Huck_It_Baby (Jan 9, 2014)

yeggous said:


> I've got a trip booked to Stowe this weekend so I am not happy either.



Hey if you have to be somewhere skiing this weekend Stowe should be the place. Pretty sure they have more terrain open than anyone else in VT.

1-2 inches last night. Saturday morning could be the best time. Get an early start! Quad spins at 7:30


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 9, 2014)

This weekend's weather could be really bad for Lyndonville, VT. Right now a previous ice jam is frozen in place on the north end of town taking up the vast majority of the river channel. Upstream rivers, cleaned out during that last jam event have refrozen and are primed to send more ice into town. There is a very thin snowpack on top of deep frozen ground. Any rain and warm we get this weekend is going to melt the little bit of snow we have and run off directly into the rivers (remember the frozen ground doesn't allow much absorption), raise the water levels breaking the new ice free and sending toward town where, as mentioned the old jam is already in place. It is not a good scenario at all. just a 1/2" of rain would be bad. 1" could be disastrous. :sad:  This winter is really starting to suck.


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## twinplanx (Jan 9, 2014)

That really does NOT sound good NEK. Is there any thing they could do to break up the old jam, like blast a channel or something? 

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## yeggous (Jan 9, 2014)

twinplanx said:


> That really does NOT sound good NEK. Is there any thing they could do to break up the old jam, like blast a channel or something?
> 
> Sent from my SCH-S735C using Tapatalk



That's the American spirit! Have a problem? Blow it up!


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 9, 2014)

Blasting a channel through town would be hard to get approved I would think. Even digging the ice out with excavators would be difficult and very expensive.


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## twinplanx (Jan 9, 2014)

yeggous said:


> That's the American spirit! Have a problem? Blow it up!



I'm sorry. Do you have a better suggestion? I thought by creating a channel the pressure would be relieved, preventing further destruction. 

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## JimG. (Jan 9, 2014)

I live near Poughkeepsie. NY and we are having ice jam issues also. Currently under flood warning.

The weather has been weird.


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## bigbog (Jan 9, 2014)

yeggous said:


> That's the American spirit! Have a problem? Blow it up!


Often there's not much else to move the ice...preventing flooding later on...

Agreed, looks like a wet weekend.
Knew it, as soon as I grabbed the cheap 115s for off-resort hopes, Ullr began changing his mind...


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 9, 2014)

gladerider said:


> *My annual pilgrimage to lake placid on mlk weekend looking as usual.*  Ice rink after the January thaw, arrrgh.



Me too, this will be my 3rd MLK in a row there.  It's the only ski trip I ever make in advance of weater predictions, largely because my gf and I love Lake Placid and even if the skiing stinks we'll have fun. 

 Last year wasnt bad, the year before was a skating rink.  This year isnt looking great, but there may be a few days ahead of the weekend that could help recovery efforts.


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## Glenn (Jan 9, 2014)

May try to get out Saturday AM. Hoping to dodge some raindrops. We want to get out Sunday too. But who knows what'll be left...or how many rivers will still be running down the hill.


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## MadMadWorld (Jan 9, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> Blasting a channel through town would be hard to get approved I would think. Even digging the ice out with excavators would be difficult and very expensive.



Check out what these guys did...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcano_(1997_film)


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## billski (Jan 9, 2014)

Huck_It_Baby said:


> Hey if you have to be somewhere skiing this weekend Stowe should be the place. Pretty sure they have more terrain open than anyone else in VT.
> 1-2 inches last night. Saturday morning could be the best time. Get an early start! Quad spins at 7:30



You'll be at $towe on Saturday?   I'll be at Bush on Friday and $teaux on Saturday until it gets soggy.  Sunday will be a game-day decision - either Stowe or go drinking.


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## billski (Jan 9, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> Blasting a channel through town would be hard to get approved



Not really.  I just saw that the town has been purchased and renamed Qyndonville.


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## yeggous (Jan 9, 2014)

billski said:


> You'll be at $towe on Saturday?   I'll be at Bush on Friday and $teaux on Saturday until it gets soggy.  Sunday will be a game-day decision - either Stowe or go drinking.



One of the EICSL clubs has a trip to $teaux this weekend, and there is another next weekend. I am tagging along unofficially this week since I have Ski VT 5-pack tix to use. Thinking about where to ski each day based on the forecast.

Next weekend am thinking about QBurke on Saturqay with my Ski VT passes, and Jay on Sunday and Monday with my season pass.


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## billski (Jan 9, 2014)

Here's more bad news from the NWS, yesterday:

While  it's been a cold start to the winter, it has not necessarily been snowy  across Northern Vermont. An abundance of rain and ice storms has kept  snow depth down. In fact, the 4pm snow depth on top of Mount Mansfield  today was 23". This is the 8th lowest on record for the site on January  8th since records began in 1954. The Lowest was 10" in 1983 and highest  was 96" in 1969. The average is 40".


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 9, 2014)

To help visualize that and to add more insults... 

That 10” in 1983 was at least on the upswing by this point and was actually deeper by January 12[SUP]th[/SUP] or so.
January of 1980 was also bad (for those old enough to remember the Winter Olympics in Lake Placid know what I mean).




That 1980 January was bad but with the upcoming weeklong+ thaw I’m thinking we may end up looking closer to the January of 1956.


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## lerops (Jan 9, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> To help visualize that and to add more insults...
> 
> That 10” in 1983 was at least on the upswing by this point and was actually deeper by January 12[SUP]th[/SUP] or so.
> January of 1980 was also bad (for those old enough to remember the Winter Olympics in Lake Placid know what I mean).
> ...



Thanks. If it does look like 1956, I hope we catch the same three subsequent feet+ dumps!

These are cool charts, where do you get the data from (I assume you do the charts yourself)?


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 9, 2014)

lerops said:


> These are cool charts, where do you get the data from (I assume you do the charts yourself)?



http://www.uvm.edu/skivt-l/?Page=mansel.php3 Change the drop down option at the top to "Total Snowdepth".


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 9, 2014)

Bleh


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## Wavewheeler (Jan 9, 2014)

This all sucks. If that rain thats forecast for Saturday was snow I'd be jumping for joy.

Why couldn't it have just STAYED cold?  That's why I hate January...with it's highly variable weather and stupid "January Thaw".   But my daughter has winter break in January and I promised her a ski trip. Two years ago Vermont didn't have any natural snow and we skied man made and it wasn't that bad so I'm hoping that after the weekend things will begin to recover. 

The plan is to drive up Monday and ski Tues-Wed-Thurs but I'm not ruling out Friday. 

Sure hope things get better in February.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 9, 2014)

One potential slight positive is this weather will probably keep the MLK crowds down considerably.


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## Wavewheeler (Jan 9, 2014)

I'm hoping that Killington, in an effort to encourage people to come for MLK weekend, will crank up the snow guns the week before. Sure hope the weather is cold enough!

I told my daughter, "Well, if the snow is all gone we can go to Ben and Jerry's."

I looked at heading further north but all of New England is forecast to be warm and wet this weekend. What will be left by Monday????


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## Bostonian (Jan 10, 2014)

Well the NOAA is showing at least for the resorts up north (Jay, wildcat) that it will be mixed precip and just not R#!n....

rub those ullr medals!


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## ScottySkis (Jan 10, 2014)

Hopefully some people on here are skiing or snowboarding today. Were I live some very very light snow has fallen about 3 inches in NY mid Hudson Valley I bet the Catskills and other hills will be excellent today so please enjoy before the weekend mess.


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## JDMRoma (Jan 10, 2014)

Had no idea it was going to snow today, wife just texted me and I was like shit.........should have gone  skiing !
It come to that drastic measure this season when only in inch makes you want to get it before the  next meltdown.
Now are they saying the @ain will hold off till after noon tomorrow ? or is it starting in the morning and Im talking about Northern NH
Bretton Woods or Cannon.........


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## drjeff (Jan 10, 2014)

JDMRoma said:


> Had no idea it was going to snow today, wife just texted me and I was like shit.........should have gone  skiing !
> It come to that drastic measure this season when only in inch makes you want to get it before the  next meltdown.
> Now are they saying the @ain will hold off till after noon tomorrow ? or is it starting in the morning and Im talking about Northern NH
> Bretton Woods or Cannon.........




The multiple meteorologists I was watching as I was on the treadmill this morning seemed to be in agreement that while the daylight hours tomorrow might not be 100% dry(some occasional light, scattered showers might occur), by far and away the heavy rain won't be arriving across the bulk of ski country until about last chair time.  Then pour for about 12hrs or so and be essentially gone for the majority of ski country by 1st chair Sunday AM.

So unless you're planning on going night skiing Saturday night, or have tickets for the Patriots playoff game Saturday night (glad I gave mine away looking at the forecast!!!!) Saturday and Sunday *should* offer some dry weather with some pleasant temps


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## xwhaler (Jan 10, 2014)

What do folks think snow conditions will be like on Sunday? Weather now looks fine but are we talking about wet packed frozen stuff that is hard to groom? Or given the warm up on Sunday do we think Sunday could be nice spring skiing in Mid January? Sunny skies forecasted----trying to figure out if it's worth my effort.
Am considering Shawnee Peak or Ragged.


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## MadMadWorld (Jan 10, 2014)

Is anyone safe? I'm thinking Le Massif might avoid this crappy weather. It's ONLY a 7 hour drive


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## drjeff (Jan 10, 2014)

xwhaler said:


> What do folks think snow conditions will be like on Sunday? Weather now looks fine but are we talking about wet packed frozen stuff that is hard to groom? Or given the warm up on Sunday do we think Sunday could be nice spring skiing in Mid January? Sunny skies forecasted----trying to figure out if it's worth my effort.
> Am considering Shawnee Peak or Ragged.



I'm thinking that given the timing of the rain Saturday night/early Sunday AM and the fact that it's not supposed to be too cold on Sunday, that most ski areas will do minimal amounts of grooming Saturday night and the the snow surfaces shouldn't be too bad, especially once the sun hits them for a bit. Likely far from bulletproof on Sunday


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## bdfreetuna (Jan 10, 2014)

Sunday is going to be a slush festival. If the rain is done by the time the lifts spin I'll go get slushy at Killington.


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## fcksummer (Jan 10, 2014)

JDMRoma said:


> Had no idea it was going to snow today, wife just texted me and I was like shit.........should have gone  skiing !
> It come to that drastic measure this season when only in inch makes you want to get it before the  next meltdown.
> Now are they saying the @ain will hold off till after noon tomorrow ? or is it starting in the morning and Im talking about Northern NH
> Bretton Woods or Cannon.........



This is for Cannon







I'm thinking about trying my luck Sunday. Trying to weigh between maybe getting wet on Saturday morning and how the snow will be Sunday AM after a night of rain.


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 10, 2014)

Yep, Lyndonville and some other valley areas along the Passumpsic River are screwed come tomorrow afternoon/night... 





> ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
> EVENING...
> 
> THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A
> ...


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## Huck_It_Baby (Jan 10, 2014)

Things could be worse!


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## bdfreetuna (Jan 10, 2014)

It's looking like Sunday is going to be below freezing and light snow in most of VT.

So maybe it will be incredibly icy on Sunday? Wish I wasn't limited to weekend ski days right now


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## MadMadWorld (Jan 10, 2014)

Huck_It_Baby said:


> Things could be worse!
> 
> View attachment 10266



Wow it most definitely could be worse. I'm not ready to shed my pessimism yet though....


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## HD333 (Jan 10, 2014)

Not feeling quite as bad for taking the weekend off this weekend after looking at the weather in So. VT. Good timing on the wife's part for her girls spa weekend...


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 10, 2014)

Weather guys are predicting around an inch of rain here now. :sad:   Picture from lunchtime.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 10, 2014)

GFS just latched onto a snowstorm for next Thursday.  Hope it pans out.






EURO also sees it, which is most encouraging.


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## MadMadWorld (Jan 10, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> Weather guys are predicting around an inch of rain here now. :sad:   Picture from lunchtime.



Ugh crossing my fingers for you guys.


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## gladerider (Jan 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> GFS just latched onto a snowstorm for next Thursday.  Hope it pans out.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Drink to that.  Hope that pans out. 

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## fbrissette (Jan 10, 2014)

We've been patient.  We deserve a big one so we can talk about something else then bra trees.


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## Huck_It_Baby (Jan 10, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> We've been patient.  We deserve a big one so we can talk about something else then bra trees.



+1


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 10, 2014)

18z GFS got a clue and now shows snow in the same sortof timeframe.  Model agreement is encouraging.


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## St. Bear (Jan 10, 2014)

Regarding that Thurs snowstorm, and beyond.
http://www.madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2014/01/yes-in-spite-of-what-will-happen-over.html


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## bdfreetuna (Jan 10, 2014)

I like the optimism from the mad river weather blog

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## BenedictGomez (Jan 10, 2014)

bdfreetuna said:


> *I like the optimism from the mad river weather blog*



Yes, it shows up like clockwork around all the major ski holidays.

That said, this time some optimism seems legit.


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## Wavewheeler (Jan 10, 2014)

Thursday snowstorm? I'll still be up in Vermont. I'll extend my stay if necessary and hit the slopes on Friday too! Here's praying for the white stuff (not the wet stuff!)


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## eelskoorb (Jan 10, 2014)

Rain Saturday, then warm Sun-Monday (below freezing at nite, but for how long?)  Let's hope Tues 1/14/14 front brings SNOW.
 They have 'a good base'  I hear that every year. bahhhh


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## Wavewheeler (Jan 10, 2014)

Unfortunately the weather for Tuesday isn't looking too good. I'm seeing 50% chance of rain for Killington and wondering if I should just hold off and ski Wed, Thursday and Friday, which look colder.


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## yeggous (Jan 10, 2014)

Crotched is in great shape tonight for midnight madness. They still have a solid base in the glades. Hopefully is survives the next few days.


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## catsup948 (Jan 11, 2014)

Thursday storm is on and off the gfs.  Yesterday it was big snows for interior new england now it's gonr.

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## xwhaler (Jan 11, 2014)

Bagging tomorrow as it seems it won't get warm enough quickly to turn the frozen wet slush into awesome spring slush

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## Wavewheeler (Jan 11, 2014)

catsup948 said:


> Thursday storm is on and off the gfs.  Yesterday it was big snows for interior new england now it's gone.



 I'm not seeing any precip for Thursday in the forecast but the threat of warmer and rainy for Tues followed by dry and cold for the rest of the week is making me think Wed-Thurs-Friday are the days to ski. At this point, if its NOT raining I'm happy. 

 I so hate rain!


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## catsup948 (Jan 11, 2014)

I just want Sugarloaf to get snow so I can finally explore Brackett basin and burnt mountain at the AZ summit!  

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## ALLSKIING (Jan 11, 2014)

Dry and cold is not great after warm and wet.....Although its better then working.


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## ALLSKIING (Jan 11, 2014)

catsup948 said:


> I just want Sugarloaf to get snow so I can finally explore Brackett basin and burnt mountain at the AZ summit!
> 
> Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk


 Brackett was open last year during the summit.


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## fbrissette (Jan 11, 2014)

It's been pouring for three hours with a couple more to go.   There will be no natural snow left by Tuesday.  And that's at 2000 feet elevation base of Jay Peak.  I feel sick.


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## billski (Jan 11, 2014)

Things are so bad that Stowe didn't even send out their daily conditions email this morning


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## billski (Jan 11, 2014)

xwhaler said:


> Bagging tomorrow as it seems it won't get warm enough quickly to turn the frozen wet slush into awesome spring slush
> 
> Sent from my VS980 4G using AlpineZone mobile app


IMO, All plans for tomorrow should be bagged based on what I saw today, from No. VT all the way down to Boston.  Trees are ice covered on i89 the entire length in NH.


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## billski (Jan 11, 2014)




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## Wavewheeler (Jan 11, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> It's been pouring for three hours with a couple more to go.   There will be no natural snow left by Tuesday.  And that's at 2000 feet elevation base of Jay Peak.  I feel sick.



Damn..get to go up to Vermont and see nothing but brown. Just like 2 years ago. 

At this point, if it DOESN'T RAIN on Tuesday I'll be happy. Midweek looks better and it could set up to be OK next weekend for you weekend warriors.


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## MadMadWorld (Jan 11, 2014)

billski said:


>



I hate looking at Tim Kelley's smiling face. There is nothing to be happy about right now!


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## yeggous (Jan 11, 2014)

Where in southern Vermont would be best tomorrow. Since today I cancelled Stowe I still have Ski VT tickets to use. I am concerned about conditions and wind holds. In NH tomorrow will be a Bretton Woods day.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 11, 2014)

yeggous said:


> Where in southern Vermont would be best tomorrow. Since today I cancelled Stowe I still have Ski VT tickets to use. I am concerned about conditions and wind holds. In NH tomorrow will be a Bretton Woods day.


Mountsnow I would think.


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## yeggous (Jan 11, 2014)

I should mention that Mt Snow, Okemo, Bromley, Stratton, and Killington are on the short list.


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## drjeff (Jan 11, 2014)

yeggous said:


> Where in southern Vermont would be best tomorrow. Since today I cancelled Stowe I still have Ski VT tickets to use. I am concerned about conditions and wind holds. In NH tomorrow will be a Bretton Woods day.



If your worried about wind holds tomorrow, and the forcasted winds are accurate for tomorrow, it won't be an issue, at least a Mount Snow.

They're calling for winds up to 30mph here tomorrow, it was gusting over 40, maybe even close to 50 here today and the only wind hold issue was with the Sunbrook Quad, and that was a wind direction (it was howling out of the South today which is a bad direction for that chair) not a wind velocity issue. 

Tomorrow is supposed to have winds from the West and NW which at 30mph usually aren't an issue for Mount Snow's lifts

The biggest issue, given the now 16 or so hours of rain and warm temps here will be if the temps drop below freezing how much will set up? If they stay above freezing - its spring like conditions with soft snow and some thin + bare spots and ice flows on the open terrain. If it freezes up hard, its going to require a freshly tuned pair of skis with good edges!

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## ALLSKIING (Jan 11, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> I hate looking at Tim Kelley's smiling face. There is nothing to be happy about right now!


I agree...You would think there is a two foot storm on the way.


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## soposkier (Jan 12, 2014)

drjeff said:


> If your worried about wind holds tomorrow, and the forcasted winds are accurate for tomorrow, it won't be an issue, at least a Mount Snow.
> 
> They're calling for winds up to 30mph here tomorrow, it was gusting over 40, maybe even close to 50 here today and the only wind hold issue was with the Sunbrook Quad, and that was a wind direction (it was howling out of the South today which is a bad direction for that chair) not a wind velocity issue.
> 
> ...



Was thinking of skiing Sunday if the temps were going to stay up, but looks like it is just going to be barely above freezing for most locations, not quite warm enough to soften things up.  Hope I'm wrong for those that are venturing out.  Very odd snowpack so far, seems like southern New Hampshire is doing better than the north country.


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