# Wednesday, March 7 thru ?? Warmup



## skiersleft (Feb 29, 2012)

It seems that a substantial warmup is headed to New England late next week. Does anyone have any idea how strong it's expected to be, how long it's forecast to last and if it's forecast to be accompanied by rain? Had  a big event planned for next weekend in VT and now it seems that temps might be May like.


----------



## 4aprice (Feb 29, 2012)

Hopefully someone like Winn with expertise will chime in.  We are due for a warm up thats for sure but for how long and how warm is the big question.  I've seen everything from people talking 70's to others pointing to major cold over Hudson Bay which may effect things.  Longer range forecasts for Vermont have temps in 40's and 50's and some rain but its hard to put any faith in anything beyond about 3 days.  I also read just this morning that the GFS and Euro may at odds with each other so who knows.  Hopefully the ski gods will smile upon us.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## St. Bear (Feb 29, 2012)

I'd much rather have some slushy bumps if it means reversion to the mean and snow at the end of March.


----------



## skiersleft (Feb 29, 2012)

4aprice said:


> Hopefully someone like Winn with expertise will chime in.  We are due for a warm up thats for sure but for how long and how warm is the big question.  I've seen everything from people talking 70's to others pointing to major cold over Hudson Bay which may effect things.  Longer range forecasts for Vermont have temps in 40's and 50's and some rain but its hard to put any faith in anything beyond about 3 days.  I also read just this morning that the GFS and Euro may at odds with each other so who knows.  Hopefully the ski gods will smile upon us.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Thanks. Where did you read about GFS and Euro being at odds with each other? Also, where do you check long range forecasts for VT? Commercial sites like AccuWeather and Weather.com or more ski oriented websites? Most ski oriented websites that I have checked go up to 6 days, but not more than that. Thanks again!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 29, 2012)

skiersleft said:


> Thanks. Where did you read about GFS and Euro being at odds with each other? Also, *where do you check long range forecasts for VT? Commercial sites like AccuWeather and Weather.com or more ski oriented websites?* Most ski oriented websites that I have checked go up to 6 days, but not more than that. Thanks again!



 All those sites "forecasts" when you plug in "anywhere, USA" rely on the GFS and generally arent taking into account the Euro, UKMET, Canuck etc...  So it's better to rely on people who know what they're talking about and there are tons of helpful regional amateur and professional mets on Facebook, plus some dedicated sites like adirondackweathersite.com (my favorite, guy has been spot on all winter with his doom and gloom bearish forecasts) for snow country.    Also, you can look at the models yourself, because anything you're seeing on weather.com etc.... when you plug is a town is not a human-made forecast beyond I think 4 days?  And for near term stuff, you can always pull up the NAM or GFS etc.. and try to gauge snowfall for yourself.


----------



## skiersleft (Feb 29, 2012)

Hey Winn....any thoughts on how long and how warm it will get next weekend and if there are big threats of rain would be appreciated!


----------



## SKIQUATTRO (Feb 29, 2012)

March 7 is my Bday, it WILL snow 'cause thats what i asked for...


----------



## ScottySkis (Feb 29, 2012)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> March 7 is my Bday, it WILL snow 'cause thats what i asked for...


That is funny because my birthday is march7 too and last year it snowed a lot in north VT so it should happen again I hope for your birthday.


----------



## WinnChill (Mar 1, 2012)

skiersleft said:


> Hey Winn....any thoughts on how long and how warm it will get next weekend and if there are big threats of rain would be appreciated!



You don't want to know.  Actually, could be fairly dry but definately warm.


----------



## 4aprice (Mar 1, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> You don't want to know.  Actually, could be fairly dry but definately warm.


 
Just seems like its not going to be our year.  I'm hearing redux's of March 2010 which was pretty warm IIRC.  On the up side I guess it's better to have it melt away from warmth then washed away by rain.  Will enjoy it as long as it lasts.  I just read one last tid bit to hang some hope on and that was about a met named James (or Jim) Witt who predicts a cold and stormy period around the 18th to 24th of March.  Can only hope he's right.  I have this bad feeling that right after all the ski areas close we will get a late season storm.  The ultimate slap in the face from mother nature.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## Tooth (Mar 1, 2012)

4aprice said:


> Just seems like its not going to be our year.  I'm hearing redux's of March 2010 which was pretty warm IIRC.  On the up side I guess it's better to have it melt away from warmth then washed away by rain.  Will enjoy it as long as it lasts.  I just read one last tid bit to hang some hope on and that was about a met named James (or Jim) Witt who predicts a cold and stormy period around the 18th to 24th of March.  Can only hope he's right.  I have this bad feeling that right after all the ski areas close we will get a late season storm.  The ultimate slap in the face from mother nature.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Sugarloaf has over a foot from today. Still snowing hard. We will be here well into April.


----------



## 4aprice (Mar 1, 2012)

Tooth said:


> Sugarloaf has over a foot from today. Still snowing hard. We will be here well into April.



Well I won't get to SL as its a little out of my range, however, if N Vermont (Jay, Smuggs, Stowe, or SB) last till April I will be there and a happy camper.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## Tooth (Mar 1, 2012)

4aprice said:


> Well I won't get to SL as its a little out of my range, however, if N Vermont (Jay, Smuggs, Stowe, or SB) last till April I will be there and a happy camper.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



I rode the lift today with a family from Wayne, NJ. Two guys from Yonkers, NY. I hear you that it is far. Living in Maine has made me very used to driving upto 2 hours each way without even thinking about it. I do understand. Hope you try it sometime. I'll show you around.


----------



## St. Bear (Mar 1, 2012)

Tooth said:


> I rode the lift today with a family from Wayne, NJ. Two guys from Yonkers, NY. I hear you that it is far. Living in Maine has made me very used to driving upto 2 hours each way without even thinking about it. I do understand. Hope you try it sometime. I'll show you around.



A few weeks ago, I was told to stay in NJ, and now you're offering guided tours?

What a difference a week of snow makes!


----------



## Zand (Mar 1, 2012)

4aprice said:


> Well I won't get to SL as its a little out of my range, however, if N Vermont (Jay, Smuggs, Stowe, or SB) last till April I will be there and a happy camper.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Try mid-May for Jay lol.


----------



## skiersleft (Mar 1, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> You don't want to know.  Actually, could be fairly dry but definately warm.



I do want to know! Especially, how long? Wednesday, Thursday? Friday also? The weekend? I love spring skiing, but not the first week of March. It's good news, though, that it might be dry.


----------



## gladerider (Mar 1, 2012)

4aprice said:


> Well I won't get to SL as its a little out of my range, however, if N Vermont (Jay, Smuggs, Stowe, or SB) last till April I will be there and a happy camper.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



+1

9 hours 1 way is too far


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 1, 2012)

^ That's the primary reason I've never skied in maine, about 10 hours for me.  Too far. Maybe one of these years if they have far superior snow in April than Vermont does.


----------



## Tooth (Mar 1, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> ^ That's the primary reason I've never skied in maine, about 10 hours for me.  Too far. Maybe one of these years if they have far superior snow in April than Vermont does.




I'll let you know. This is not the year so far.


----------



## WinnChill (Mar 2, 2012)

skiersleft said:


> I do want to know! Especially, how long? Wednesday, Thursday? Friday also? The weekend? I love spring skiing, but not the first week of March. It's good news, though, that it might be dry.



Ah, ok.  In terms of no snowfall, it's bad.  But a warm spike through midweek (50's to 60's??)--then a weak round of rain showers--more seasonable into the weekend then back and forth temp swings mainly above normal the following week probably.


----------



## Tooth (Mar 2, 2012)

Its March. Holding out for elevation above 2500ft staying all snow to mix for whatevers next. Maine TV weather still calling it this way. Hope it happens. Calling 3-4" too.


----------



## WinnChill (Mar 2, 2012)

Tooth said:


> Its March. Holding out for elevation above 2500ft staying all snow to mix for whatevers next. Maine TV weather still calling it this way. Hope it happens. Calling 3-4" too.



Just so we're talking about the same thing--yeah, I can see a few inches for ME areas tonight/Sat with this system, then some mixing.  Events next week look way to warm for snow.  

Ok, that's it--heading out for slope time.  See ya!


----------



## Tooth (Mar 2, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Just so we're talking about the same thing--yeah, I can see a few inches for ME areas tonight/Sat with this system, then some mixing.  Events next week look way to warm for snow.
> 
> Ok, that's it--heading out for slope time.  See ya!




Thanks Winn. Im talking about tonight-tom. I know next week is going to be warm.


----------



## skiersleft (Mar 2, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Ah, ok.  In terms of no snowfall, it's bad.  But a warm spike through midweek (50's to 60's??)--then a weak round of rain showers--more seasonable into the weekend then back and forth temp swings mainly above normal the following week probably.



Thanks Winn. Could be worse, I guess. Hope warm spike only lasts a couple of days and weekend is seasonable. That would be OK. Fingers crossed.


----------



## kingslug (Mar 4, 2012)

I'm going to watch the temps, not into frozen crud , but if its a true spring ski day I'll venture out. My agenda though..is to save some money for another trip to SLC the last week of march. If I have to sacrifice some days here..so be it...


----------



## Tooth (Mar 6, 2012)

Just heard from Bestskiweather.com that significant snow is expected later next week in NNE. This would set us up to ski/ride through April. Thank you Ullr.


----------



## 2knees (Mar 6, 2012)

Tooth said:


> Just heard from Bestskiweather.com that significant snow is expected later next week in NNE. This would set us up to ski/ride through April. Thank you Ullr.



If Roemer finds out you're reposting his forecasts, we will hear about your car being found by the side of the road but no signs of the driver......He's dangerous like that.


----------



## Tooth (Mar 6, 2012)

2knees said:


> If Roemer finds out you're reposting his forecasts, we will hear about your car being found by the side of the road but no signs of the driver......He's dangerous like that.



Thanks for the tip. Did I say Roemer? Must have been a typo. It wasnt BSW. It was some other obscure weather site. Yeah. Not those guys.


----------



## 2knees (Mar 6, 2012)

Tooth said:


> Thanks for the tip. Did I say Roemer? Must have been a typo. It wasnt BSW. It was some other obscure weather site. Yeah. Not those guys.



:lol:  I'm obviously kidding.  I paid for his service a few years ago and remember them being nazi's about their uber secret forecasts.  not sure if that is still the case but i found it incredibly obnoxious.


----------



## Tooth (Mar 6, 2012)

Im just happy the snow is coming. Its not over yet. I just want snow for Reggae Fest.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 6, 2012)

Tooth said:


> *Just heard from Bestskiweather.com that significant snow is expected later next week in NNE. *This would set us up to ski/ride through April. Thank you Ullr.



They're calling that already for "later next week"?   Lets hope so, but I sure wouldn't hold my breath on a forecast made that far out.


----------



## Tooth (Mar 6, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> They're calling that already for "later next week"?   Lets hope so, but I sure wouldn't hold my breath on a forecast made that far out.



He's been the first to call every storm right so far this year. I trust him. Waiting to see what days I am canceling next week. Long range is his thing.


----------



## St. Bear (Mar 6, 2012)

Tooth said:


> He's been the first to call every storm right so far this year. I trust him. Waiting to see what days I am canceling next week. Long range is his thing.



Sorry to burst your bubble, but I already have plans to go up north that weekend.

Best case scenario is that it snows the following Mon/Tues, but more likely is a bust.


----------



## Tooth (Mar 6, 2012)

What an optimistic bunch. All I'm trying to do is report that I heard from a professional met that its going to snow next week. What do your plans have to do with bursting my bubble?


----------



## St. Bear (Mar 6, 2012)

Tooth said:


> What an optimistic bunch. All I'm trying to do is report that I heard from a professional met that its going to snow next week. What do your plans have to do with bursting my bubble?



It was a joke about jinxing things.  Kind of like how people say the best way to make it rain is to get your car washed.


----------



## Tooth (Mar 6, 2012)

St. Bear said:


> It was a joke about jinxing things.  Kind of like how people say the best way to make it rain is to get your car washed.



Sorry. :dunce: I'm not half the jerk you think I am. I need to thicken the old skin up some.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 6, 2012)

Tooth said:


> He's been the first to call every storm right so far this year. I trust him. Waiting to see what days I am canceling next week. *Long range is his thing. *



If you look at the GFS for about a week from now, it does have a ton of precipitation in the area.  I just dunno how he gets that specific calling for a snowstorm given how far out that is since the temps could be too warm or the thing may not even materialize given it's over 150 hours out, etc...  Seems kindof ballsy, but God bless him if it happens.


----------



## St. Bear (Mar 6, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> If you look at the GFS for about a week from now, it does have a ton of precipitation in the area.  I just dunno how he gets that specific calling for a snowstorm given how far out that is since the temps could change or the thing may not even materialize given it's over 150 hours out, etc...  God bless him if it happens though.



From what I understand, the models are relatively decent at predicting precipitation.  It's temp that they have the most trouble with.


----------

