# Accuweather 2013-14 Winter Forecast



## St. Bear (Oct 9, 2013)

Pretty much on par with a lot of the long range forecasts that I've seen.









http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-winter-2013-2014-snow/18574742


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## ScottySkis (Oct 9, 2013)

About time, I love these maps hopefully it coming true. Wonder what Winnchill thinks?


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## St. Bear (Oct 9, 2013)

Most of what I've seen is average to slightly above average for the Northeast.

I've also seen colder than average temps with average precip, which I actually like. Let the snowmakers put down a solid base, and anything that falls from the sky is fun to play with.


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## dlague (Oct 9, 2013)

I think we are in the mild start right now!  Hopefully that above normal snow will slide down soon and take over!


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## St. Bear (Oct 9, 2013)

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/ind...wdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179

Despite the early '00s web design, I like these forecasts.

If only because they list snowfall averages for lots of cities that you don't normally see.  It's interesting.


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## skiberg (Oct 10, 2013)

I have been neurotically following the weather, as I usually do this time of year and this is what seems to be the general consensus as of today. First we are in a mild period right now, 2nd, they expect that November will be colder that normal. Third, they are predicting December to be WARMER than normal. Fourth, it appears a neg. NAO will take over, but not until Jan. If so JAN- MAR will probably be loaded with cold and snow. Fifth, predicting a VERY, VERY cold but dry winter in Europe. Again this is a general consensus and my experience is that they are often wrong on these long terms predictions. Most recently I went to Europe in Spring 2012. they were predicting a warm and early end to winter in Europe. I went mid-late April and they were buried in snow and snowed the whole time I was there and they had an unusually cold wet spring that year.


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## St. Bear (Oct 11, 2013)

Also, shoutout to Gunstock, making the picture on the front page of Accuweather!


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## 4aprice (Oct 11, 2013)

skiberg said:


> I have been neurotically following the weather, as I usually do this time of year and this is what seems to be the general consensus as of today. First we are in a mild period right now, 2nd, they expect that November will be colder that normal. Third, they are predicting December to be WARMER than normal. Fourth, it appears a neg. NAO will take over, but not until Jan. If so JAN- MAR will probably be loaded with cold and snow.



This is pretty much what I have heard as well.  It will be interesting to see if the ski areas take advantage of a November cold snap if the long range stays the way it is.  Also how much above December is a big question.  With short daylight and cold avg temps it's not necessarily a bad thing unless its 5 to 10+ above. (that would be "much above normal" in my book). With the signs I've been seeing (acorns, fattening animals etc, low sun activity) I'm still on board for a pretty good one.  If its more back loaded that won't bother me either.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## skiberg (Oct 11, 2013)

I too am not so concerned with December as I am pretty confident it will be cold enough to get snow down. We just really need the weeklong cold snaps so they can just pump out the snow non-stop. Its the fluctuation in temps that kills them. On and off on the guns creates a lot of work. I always look to have a good Christmas week. Especially this year as I will be at my house for 13 days straight around Christmas. I have been up there during years when its 45 degrees on Christmas and that is really a bummer.


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## legalskier (Oct 14, 2013)

This one came out today-







More here, including temp & precip departure forecasts:
http://epawablogs.com/epawa-2013-2014-preliminary-winter-outlook-2/


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## ScottySkis (Oct 15, 2013)

legalskier said:


> This one came out today-
> 
> 
> 
> ...



If there correct it looks like Catskills will get above average snow.


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## Warp Daddy (Oct 15, 2013)

take all this noise as Weather guessing at best  ........just go when u can and consult this but do not depend on "PREDICTIONS " or you will often MISS living life .


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## ss20 (Oct 17, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Pretty much on par with a lot of the long range forecasts that I've seen.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



So according to this Jay is gonna reach the 500" mark? :beer:


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## ScottySkis (Oct 17, 2013)

ss20 said:


> So according to this Jay is gonna reach the 500" mark? :beer:



This if true not very good news for North east.: The website.link that is.


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 18, 2013)

FWIW, there's a lot of snow cover in Siberia and parts of Asia right already.  Fingers crossed.


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## arik (Oct 24, 2013)

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-skiing-prospects-look-very/19142465

accuweather has published a follow up article on this today


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## jack97 (Oct 27, 2013)

Just another data point, a climate model run shows strong El Nino trend which may result in the above weather pattern. 

Here's the link to the summary, actual article is thru a paywall, not sure if its worth the price they are asking. 

http://www.reportingclimatescience....ate-change-will-boost-el-nino-says-paper.html


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## Abubob (Oct 27, 2013)

jack97 said:


> Just another data point, a climate model run shows strong El Nino trend which may result in the above weather pattern.
> 
> Here's the link to the summary, actual article is thru a paywall, not sure if its worth the price they are asking.
> 
> http://www.reportingclimatescience....ate-change-will-boost-el-nino-says-paper.html



"We have no idea what's gonna happen but it'll be ROBUST."


Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone mobile app


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## ScottySkis (Oct 27, 2013)

Abubob said:


> "We have no idea what's gonna happen but it'll be ROBUST."
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone mobile app


It will snow ski and snowboarding then, in North East it will get warm enjoy spring conditions, it will rai$ wait to it snows again and enjoy the fun winter.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 1, 2013)

I am reading November will feel like 50 s and December I guess I can leave skis in the shop. Will we get a good winter , maybe time to fly out West and not think about north east uncountable weather.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 1, 2013)

Scotty said:


> I am reading November will feel like 50 s and December I guess I can leave skis in the shop. Will we get a good winter , maybe time to fly out West and not think about north east uncountable weather.


http://www.upstatesnow.com/
 	Check out the video below which details the latest trends and what we  are thinking for the winter of 2013-14. If you prefer to read the first  call, it is in text form below. This article will appear in the second  edition of Snowbelt Magazine, published by the Boonville Herald and the  Adirondack Tourist... hitting newstands soon!
*Winter 2013-14
	The Mysterious Winter of 2013-14
	By Rich Lupia*
*So why am I calling this winter mysterious? We’ve seen so many  signs of impending big cold and snow… both from our study of the weather  across North America and anecdotally here in snow country. From big  apple harvests to changes in the animals to the first real October  snowfall in many years, it does seem like we are in for it. Or are we?
	The Pacific water temperatures have been temperamental. They are up,  then down. This is causing the PNA (Pacific North American pattern) to  swing wildly from positive (good cold and snow here) to negative (fast  moving storms and mild here). What this means in simple terms: The jet  stream has become unpredictable and it’s not setting up for very long in  one place. Just when it seems like it is locking in to a pattern, it  changes!
	So what is going for us? El Nino/La Nina: No change. We are neutral or  “La Nada” to stay. The trends point to a weak El Nino developing in 2014  but we are in the range where snowier and colder winters have tended to  occur.  The Lake Ontario Temperatures have cooled some but are still a  little above normal. It is still favorable for heavy lake effect events  in the next 4 to 12 weeks if the cold winds align properly. There is  certainly potential there. The biggest thing going for us is the buildup  of snow and ice over the Arctic, Canada and Siberia. At one point we  were running at the fastest and largest buildup since 1976-77. Long  timers remember how brutal the winter of 1977 was. The growth of snow  and ice has eased a bit off of this record pace, but it is still growing  fast. As of October 31, we have the best snow and ice cover over the  Northern Hemisphere since 2002-03. That winter was robust with above  average snow and below average temperatures, but is not in the hall of  fame known as the Winter of 1977. It takes a lot to equal the legendary  winters of 1947, 1977 and 1994. Unless these other signs become more  convincing, I’m not ready to go for “the big one”.  Why?  The Arctic  Oscillation, one of the many factors we look at to determine medium and  long range temperatures has swung wildly positive going into November.  This, combined with a negative PNA as mentioned above, will likely mean a  November filled with fast moving storms and swings in temperature up  and down. It looks unlikely for a long cold pattern or a snowy start  like in the 1990’s.
	Given all the factors, snow and ice to our north is good, and it is a  big factor in our winter here and will ultimately bring us at least a  normal winter, probably a solid one. First call for the winter on  snowfall is 10 to 33% above normal snowfall for the season. This doesn’t  put us into “Top 10” status, especially with a slow November start  likely and the better chance for cold and snow late in the month, if not  early December. December should be a stronger month. Temperatures will  average a little below normal, 1 to 3 degrees below, and we haven’t see  that cold in at least a half dozen years. We will make a final revision  to the forecast on December 1st.*
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## skiberg (Nov 1, 2013)

so interesting. The forecast really is in flux this year and the early season prognostications seemed to have changed from even one month ago. I really like this forecast.


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