# weekend of 12/17-18?



## Smellytele (Dec 13, 2016)

??


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## yeggous (Dec 13, 2016)

Friday will be $&@!ing cold. Saturday should be excellent. Sunday will likely feature the unspeakable.


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## tnt1234 (Dec 13, 2016)

Catskills snow on Saturday?


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## Tin (Dec 13, 2016)

If you have not been able to get out and enjoy the conditions do so ASAP. Southern VT and NH look to be having a massive melt down.


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## ALLSKIING (Dec 13, 2016)

Tin said:


> If you have not been able to get out and enjoy the conditions do so ASAP. Southern VT and NH look to be having a massive melt down.


Hopefully it's not as bad as some models suggest. Some still have some ok temps. I don't think it has lasting power anyway 

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## bdfreetuna (Dec 13, 2016)

Tin said:


> If you have not been able to get out and enjoy the conditions do so ASAP. Southern VT and NH look to be having a massive melt down.



Just based on Sunday or you talking Christmas?

I'm not so bearish on the weekend, we need base anyway and it looks like probably a net gain.

What I'm looking at is 4-8" snow followed by some rain / freezing rain / ice. Yeah not gonna be fun to ski right away but this is what the mountains need to set us up for the long run.

Prior to that we have some mountain snow likely Wed - Thurs, which is why I say this week is a net gain. After Sunday looks like we're back into active weather pattern as well.


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## yeggous (Dec 13, 2016)

bdfreetuna said:


> Just based on Sunday or you talking Christmas?
> 
> I'm not so bearish on the weekend, we need base anyway and it looks like probably a net gain.



Possibly both. The party is over for a while.


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## bdfreetuna (Dec 13, 2016)

GFS and we're good, really good. Euro and we start getting cranky around here. Long range, Christmas week.

Sunday I think either way is so brief and preceeded on the front end with a little whallop it's just gonna give what we got a helmet of icy protection. If you go by GFS it might be a 90%-100% snow event in the hills.


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## yeggous (Dec 13, 2016)

bdfreetuna said:


> GFS and we're good, really good. Euro and we start getting cranky around here. Long range, Christmas week.
> 
> Sunday I think either way is so brief and preceeded on the front end with a little whallop it's just gonna give what we got a helmet of icy protection. If you go by GFS it might be a 90%-100% snow event in the hills.



Are you talking about the week between Christmas and New Years? That is out there is the great unknown.

In the interim things are going to warm and wet. Whether this weekend will be a net loss of base snow is questionable. Cold air damming is very difficult to handle this far out. Sometimes areas like North Conway make out okay hold onto freezing rain while the higher elevations get blow torched. My initial suspicions is that the cold air may hang tough and the warm air could end up mostly aloft, but there is a lot of it coming. And there's not a lot of cold behind it.


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## bdfreetuna (Dec 13, 2016)

Ok. What I was looking at was Euro and GFS average temps Christmas-week posted to a Met Facebook page last night. Euro was blowtorch, GFS had us below average still.

But I'm not gonna repost that here, and defer to your greater experience on weather in regard to the topic at hand.

Question: do you see the Sunday warm up lasting more than 24 hours before it dips back into cold? I'm not seeing next week as unseasonably warm. Curious how you conclude that. Not experienced interpreting meteograms you posted.


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## yeggous (Dec 13, 2016)

bdfreetuna said:


> Ok. What I was looking at was Euro and GFS average temps Christmas-week posted to a Met Facebook page last night. Euro was blowtorch, GFS had us below average still.
> 
> But I'm not gonna repost that here, and defer to your greater experience on weather in regard to the topic at hand.
> 
> Question: do you see the Sunday warm up lasting more than 24 hours before it dips back into cold? I'm not seeing next week as unseasonably warm. Curious how you conclude that. Not experienced interpreting meteograms you posted.



Here is a good page for ensemble animations:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...=z500a&runtime=2016121312&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=92


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## bdfreetuna (Dec 13, 2016)

yeggous said:


> Here is a good page for ensemble animations:
> http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...=z500a&runtime=2016121312&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=92



thanks.. usually check Tidbits daily but mainly for the GFS snowfall totals. Will start paying attention to GEFS too.


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## Tin (Dec 13, 2016)

Typical Christmas meltdown. No worries. Let the tourists and gappers enjoy the boilerplate and man made junk. Another 4-6"+, with rain/zr, and cold would make a hell of a base in the woods and side, I'm all for it as I don't ski holiday weeks barring some epic event. 

As far as modeling precip, Euro has gone to shit. Prior to this week's Sun-Mon event the GFS has had a serious north and west bias when modeling pressure centers so I'm not jumping ship yet when it comes to the cutters it has modeled. 4km NAM and 3km NAMX have been money for getting the elevation bomb deals as well as upslope/LES. A little juiced at times for the Berks as all NAM models seem to believe it stays colder in western Mass than it does but pretty damn good for the spine of VT, Whites, and Maine.


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## tnt1234 (Dec 13, 2016)

We're skiing SB/MRG 12/29-1/1.  Longest forecast I can find has it cold to the 27th....here's hoping!

This weekend looks to me like Saturday morning in the catskills might be worth the drive, then it's all a mess....


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## ALLSKIING (Dec 13, 2016)

tnt1234 said:


> We're skiing SB/MRG 12/29-1/1.  Longest forecast I can find has it cold to the 27th....here's hoping!
> 
> This weekend looks to me like Saturday morning in the catskills might be worth the drive, then it's all a mess....


There will be a warm up around Xmas. To early to tell how warm...some models say blowtorch some don't.

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## tnt1234 (Dec 13, 2016)

This forum is a great resource.

Anyone care to take a stab at Catskills this Saturday?  some sites call it snow till PM with good accumulation in the AM.  Which would be worth it I suppose...

Thanks in advance and hope everyone gets something this weekend.


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## ss20 (Dec 13, 2016)

Saturday will be lot's of fun.  Sunday not-so-much.  Gonna hit Mount Snow Saturday and book it home, if I'm not teaching.


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## RHODYTURNS (Dec 13, 2016)

Latest update on The Weather Channel shows 8-12 inches during the day on Saturday in Pinkham Notch. I don't see any other sites predicting such a large snow event. Is TWC getting me excited over nothing?


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## Tin (Dec 13, 2016)

As of now the Whites appear to make out best with a solid front end thump before the rain. However, the winds could do some damage.


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## bdfreetuna (Dec 13, 2016)

RHODYTURNS said:


> Latest update on The Weather Channel shows 8-12 inches during the day on Saturday in Pinkham Notch. I don't see any other sites predicting such a large snow event. Is TWC getting me excited over nothing?



Mount Snow looks to do well also (8-12) along with Wildcat (8-12) @ Weather Underground.

One I have been watching that has been showing more of a warm up for Sunday (especially high elevation) is mountain-forecast.com , which if I'm not mistaken uses some ensemble of models. Over the course of the last day they have moderated their temperature spike for Sunday, but they do still remain on the warmer side and showing less front side snowy precip to this.

Even taking their forecast as a worst case scenario though I'm not really worried about any damage being done Sunday and looks increasingly safe to say net gain for anywhere in VT or NH with any kind of elevation. I hope we're seeing a trend in the models and not a bounce, this winter might not be ready to give up on being an over performer. Furthermore there is ample opportunity for resurfacing early-mid next week.

Beyond that I'm not gonna venture as it's been discussed by folks with more knowledge earlier today in this thead.


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## Glenn (Dec 14, 2016)

This is an interest weekend for sure. Let's hope the rain is fast and brief overnight Saturday into Sunday.


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## drjeff (Dec 14, 2016)

This weekend is easy... Saturday ='s good  Sunday ='s bad!

Sunday is going to be falling temps, flash freezing everything combined with likely a massive amount of wind holds, as some of the elevation forecasts are calling for sustained winds above 50, with much higher gusts


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## NYDB (Dec 14, 2016)

Agree

Sat looks awesome, Sun looks wet and soft until 1pm or so and then get out the ice skates

Mon-Wed looks like the big resurface.


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## dlague (Dec 14, 2016)

There has been a lot of talk about a warm up but I do not see anything significant besides Sunday for a bit.  There are a few smaller warm up windows coming but nothing blow torch like.  In fact, night time temps will be cold enough for a while to preserve base and the warmer temps may not cause too much damage.  The toughest issue will be refreeze - and the resurfacing.  Refreeze almost always results in resurfaced trails to get scraped off early, or they groom to early and golf ball sized death cookies are created.


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## snoseek (Dec 14, 2016)

This doesn't look completely terrible for Northern NH.


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## Cornhead (Dec 14, 2016)

Looks like a might be headed for another powder day at Snow Ridge Saturday. Multiple feet possible. I signed up for the company Christmas party, but I may have to blow that off.

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## Kleetus (Dec 14, 2016)

Cornhead said:


> Looks like a might be headed for another powder day at Snow Ridge Saturday. Multiple feet possible. I signed up for the company Christmas party, but I may have to blow that off.
> 
> Sent from my XT1064 using AlpineZone mobile app



I'm thinking of maybe hitting Snow Ridge Saturday as well...originally was planning on Gore but tough to pass up on pow especially with the way the forecast looks for Snow Ridge right now...plus the Lake Effect band is pretty intense as it is sitting now


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## Tin (Dec 15, 2016)

Well that just went to shit for everyone in a hurry (MRV north to Jay looks to make out best, and by best I mean least amount of rain). Much, much less of a front end thump and more liquid.


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## Savemeasammy (Dec 15, 2016)

Tin said:


> Well that just went to shit for everyone in a hurry (MRV north to Jay looks to make out best, and by best I mean least amount of rain). Much, much less of a front end thump and more liquid.



We don't need this kind of negativity around here...!


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## Tin (Dec 15, 2016)

Think we need to re-evaluate opinions of the NAM models. The 3 and 4k nailed the streamers and squall that gave MRV 10"+ last night and had it two days ago.


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## bdfreetuna (Dec 15, 2016)

Tin said:


> Think we need to re-evaluate opinions of the NAM models. The 3 and 4k nailed the streamers and squall that gave MRV 10"+ last night and had it two days ago.



MRG says 1-3" last night.

Where are you going this weekend? I'm thinking Bolton Valley.. preacher/playground is open and I have passes to use there. If money was no object I'd probably head to Mt Ellen.


edit:

Just realized I have 2-for-1 at Burke thru Mountain Sports Club. Coupon printed. Burke says they will possibly be at 100% for Saturday. Love that mountain!


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## Tin (Dec 15, 2016)

Pico now. Whiteout and 2 hours of squalls and whatever has fallen lately is on the side 20-30' of trails in 2'+ drifts. Absolutely amazing.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 15, 2016)

So what think I will happen at Mountain Snow this weekend. I was thinking of skiing Saturday after car is fixed. Sleeping at Hotel Altima in Bennington then ski Sunday use bubble chair protect my self from rain the go home.

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## The Sneak (Dec 15, 2016)

Supposed to ski Snow or Stratton Monday. Thinking of moving it to Wednesday.

I fear Monday will be frigid with miserable conditions.

Agree? Will Wednesday be significantly better?


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## bdfreetuna (Dec 15, 2016)

The Sneak said:


> Supposed to ski Snow or Stratton Monday. Thinking of moving it to Wednesday.
> 
> I fear Monday will be frigid with miserable conditions.
> 
> ...



A couple extra passes with the grooming tractor surely won't hurt. Some snow will be made as well. Sounds like a good idea to me.


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## drjeff (Dec 15, 2016)

ScottySkis said:


> So what think I will happen at Mountain Snow this weekend. I was thinking of skiing Saturday after car is fixed. Sleeping at Hotel Altima in Bennington then ski Sunday use bubble chair protect my self from rain the go home.
> 
> Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk



The biggest issue with Sunday is the timing of when the Arctic front, with the plummeting temps and BIG winds arrives.  If it's after lunch, it could be a decent, albeit likely a bit damp, of a morning.  If the front goes through not long after 1st chair, you'd be looking at an ugly situation with lifts going on wind hold and the snow setting up (and likely the roads too) quickly - it's all about the timing...


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## ss20 (Dec 15, 2016)

ScottySkis said:


> So what think I will happen at Mountain Snow this weekend. I was thinking of skiing Saturday after car is fixed. Sleeping at Hotel Altima in Bennington then ski Sunday use bubble chair protect my self from rain the go home.
> 
> Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk



OR just don't ski Sunday...


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## tnt1234 (Dec 15, 2016)

ss20 said:


> OR just don't ski Sunday...



Yeah, that was my call.

Was thinking Snow or Okemo saturday and sunday.  

Backing off to Hunter Saturday only.


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## Jully (Dec 15, 2016)

The Sneak said:


> Supposed to ski Snow or Stratton Monday. Thinking of moving it to Wednesday.
> 
> I fear Monday will be frigid with miserable conditions.
> 
> ...



I'm going to be at Sunday River Tuesday. Really hoping that they recover quickly. Monday should be very not good though I think. Wednesday will be significantly better assuming the resort has the desire to make any snow and or spend a lot of time grooming. Any natural stuff is going to take a little longer than that to recover though...


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## Smellytele (Dec 16, 2016)

Smuggs Saturday or if roads and time are not on my side may just end the trip at Bolton. Although that hill up to Bolton can be interesting...

Sunday if it stops raining early enough may hit Pats peak for a few runs or just watch the Pats game


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## WJenness (Dec 16, 2016)

Jully said:


> I'm going to be at Sunday River Tuesday. Really hoping that they recover quickly. Monday should be very not good though I think. Wednesday will be significantly better assuming the resort has the desire to make any snow and or spend a lot of time grooming. Any natural stuff is going to take a little longer than that to recover though...



SR is pretty good at recovering fairly quickly...

They'll groom everything they can get their hands on as soon as they can and pound out as much snow as they can as well.

With Christmas vacation week coming up, it's the best play for them.


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