# Potential Storm: 1/16



## Boston Bulldog (Jan 12, 2016)

There has been chatter about this in the other thread, but now it appears that this threat is viable enough for it's own thread.

This is a tricky system. This transition pattern seems to have many cooks in the kitchen but one very poor chef. Lots of disturbances  but a poor set up to get snow. The real PNA pattern is still establishing itself and is sloppy for now. In fact, we are very lucky that this storm is not going to be tracking up the Hudson River or even Buffalo. A -NAO and 50/50 block from today's storm is allowing the system to spawn a secondary coastal low and save us from an inland runner/last weekend redux.uke: 

Pretty much a solid Miller B look right now if we take the current models verbatim.



The one issue is that the primary low tracking towards the Great lakes could take a while to die off. The later it takes to do this, the higher chance of rain coming into ski country. A few days ago the models showed this but have trended towards a more snowy solution. 

In all, could be an interesting storm for both New England this Saturday and the Patriots game! Go Pats! BG has posted a projection map in the other thread.


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## Tin (Jan 12, 2016)

Trending warmer each GFS run today.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 12, 2016)

Tin said:


> Trending warmer each GFS run today.



Yeah 0z GFS was warm but I don't recall the rest being warmer. Ride the EURO for now.

You can see the Monday shortwave down by the gulf too.


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## Tin (Jan 13, 2016)

Paste bomb for now. It will get a base down in the woods.


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## slatham (Jan 13, 2016)

Some models now saying a miss out to sea. Maybe a little from the inland low but temps could be a challenge. Not buying any forecast that is more than 48 hours.........


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## Tin (Jan 13, 2016)

slatham said:


> Some models now saying a miss out to sea. Maybe a little from the inland low but temps could be a challenge. Not buying any forecast that is more than 48 hours.........



Do you mean the follow up is OTS? The Saturday deal moving so quickly could help for the follow up.


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## Tin (Jan 13, 2016)

And it appears to help. BIG TIME. Still too far out though.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 13, 2016)

If the mountains get 4 or 5 inches out of this I'll be happy.  The important thing is that the pattern has clearly changed, and shots on goal for something decent should be coming (FINALLY) over the next few weeks.


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## Harvey (Jan 13, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> shots on goal



Love this analogy.


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## ss20 (Jan 13, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> shots on goal





Harvey said:


> Love this analogy.



This weekend:


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## ALLSKIING (Jan 13, 2016)

ss20 said:


> This weekend:



Thanks for that! Diehard Vikings fan....


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 13, 2016)

Trend has been OTS, BUT the wave has not even come on shore yet. Once it does tomorrow, the model run which follows will be very important. It could stay meh or come roaring back with a vengeance. Once we get a full sampling on this thing, we will know the full story.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 14, 2016)

Done. Stick a fork in it and hope for Monday.


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## Tin (Jan 14, 2016)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Done. Stick a fork in it and hope for Monday.




Hope? We need this...


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## hammer (Jan 14, 2016)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Done. Stick a fork in it and hope for Monday.


Yup.  Just hoping that this doesn't do any harm, want to head out to Ragged on Sunday and while I'm expecting hardpack I'm hoping it won't be bulletproof.


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## dlague (Jan 14, 2016)

Local news reported mix will be close to the border in southern NH and some snow north but nothing significant.


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## ss20 (Jan 14, 2016)

Probably won't even rain in the Catskills or the Adcks.  Go west young man!  

I don't see Monday panning out to anything significant.


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## drjeff (Jan 14, 2016)

ss20 said:


> I don't see Monday panning out to anything significant.



The fact I have a 6AM flight Monday AM out to Utah significantly increases the chances that the Sunday Night/Monday AM event will suddenly explode and mess up my travel plans!


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## dlague (Jan 14, 2016)

Monday will be a dusting and Saturday a few inches! Friggin' blizzard I tell you!


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## Tin (Jan 14, 2016)

Everyone needs to wash their cars, book travel plans, etc. Turn it around.


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 14, 2016)

I'm putting some storage wax on my skis and bring them back into the basement!


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## steamboat1 (Jan 14, 2016)

drjeff said:


> The fact I have a 6AM flight Monday AM out to Utah significantly increases the chances that the Sunday Night/Monday AM event will suddenly explode and mess up my travel plans!



Good timing: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...1=40.58194&textField2=-111.65444#.Vpe8Kk9L6Vo


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## JimG. (Jan 14, 2016)

Tin said:


> Everyone needs to wash their cars, book travel plans, etc. Turn it around.



Washed my car Tues, filthy again after a PM trip to Belleayre yesterday where I found 3" on top of a good snowmaking base on several T2B routes. 

Gonna wash it again today before my Hunter trip tomorrow. It works.


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## andrec10 (Jan 14, 2016)

JimG. said:


> Washed my car Tues, filthy again after a PM trip to Belleayre yesterday where I found 3" on top of a good snowmaking base on several T2B routes.
> 
> Gonna wash it again today before my Hunter trip tomorrow. It works.



I should go wash one of our cars too. Increases the odds!


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## fcksummer (Jan 14, 2016)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Done. Stick a fork in it and hope for Monday.


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## wtcobb (Jan 14, 2016)

Tin said:


> Everyone needs to wash their cars, book travel plans, etc. Turn it around.



I should switch back to my summer tires.


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## Tin (Jan 14, 2016)

Take whatever we can get. I want to ski Mittersill soon.


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## Puck it (Jan 14, 2016)

Tin said:


> Take whatever we can get. I want to ski Mittersill soon.


3-6 is not enough to ski Mitty sidecountry stuff.


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## Tin (Jan 14, 2016)

Puck it said:


> 3-6 is not enough to ski Mitty sidecountry stuff.


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## Puck it (Jan 14, 2016)

Tin said:


>


  I am sick but you are certifiable if you ski it with that little of snow.

And funny you post Nick pic.  I was just watching Knowing and thinking boy does he overact!!!!


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 14, 2016)

Ticks to the NW. Better for Maine, but still a light event for NH.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 14, 2016)

Actually wow the EURO says paste job for NH


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## Tin (Jan 14, 2016)

Yup, coming in. RGEM is $$$ inside that 48 hour window. We shall see. Thinking totals will be going up.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 14, 2016)

What.... Holy s*** The NAM overamped? Never:roll:


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 14, 2016)

oops, accidentally sent twice


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## deadheadskier (Jan 14, 2016)

I have such a hard time with these threads.  So, bipolar.  It's on, it's a bust, it's on, it's a bust.  :lol:


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 14, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> I have such a hard time with these threads.  So, bipolar.  It's on, it's a bust, it's on, it's a bust.  :lol:



This storm has been especially finicky. This winter as a whole perhaps may be more difficult to track than normal. El Nino patterns always have so much going on that if one thing goes wrong, down goes the ship. It seems as though one potential deathblow presents itself and then is resolved in ~18 or so and then another issue pops up. Model mayhem.


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## deadheadskier (Jan 14, 2016)

Boston Bulldog said:


> This storm has been especially finicky. This winter as a whole perhaps may be more difficult to track than normal. El Nino patterns always have so much going on that if one thing goes wrong, down goes the ship. It seems as though one potential deathblow presents itself and then is resolved in ~18 or so and then another issue pops up. Model mayhem.



I'm not talking about the finicky nature of the storm

I'm talking about the certainty speak 

Just a general observation.


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## bigbog (Jan 15, 2016)

If you have anykind of freeheel aspect to your setups, .....going to be getting more than a few inches in Washington Country, ME thru Saturday, ...and cold thru next week(our #1 favorite item from Canada).


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## Savemeasammy (Jan 15, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> I'm not talking about the finicky nature of the storm
> 
> I'm talking about the certainty speak
> 
> Just a general observation.



And the predicting of 10 out of every 3 storms...!  

I wish things would get better, though.  I'm not heartbroken about the lack of snow at my house, but it would be nice if the mountains got some action.  


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## dlague (Jan 15, 2016)

Looks like upper NH could get over a half a foot.


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## JDMRoma (Jan 15, 2016)

dlague said:


> Looks like upper NH could get over a half a foot.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Sweet ! Maybe have more ski time than Zoomer bar time !


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## fcksummer (Jan 15, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> I'm not talking about the finicky nature of the storm
> 
> I'm talking about the certainty speak
> 
> Just a general observation.




I've received my fair share of blue balls from these type of threads


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## deadheadskier (Jan 15, 2016)

Lol


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## skiberg (Jan 15, 2016)

The bi-polar nature of these threads is exactly what's makes it fun. Quite frankly, I think the whole weather forum is much less fun since the institution of all the "rules". Who cares how far out we speculate? What's the big deal? I love the Lottery mentality that goes with these storms. Its like we are all playing Powerball. Eventually we hit the big one. By limiting our time frames and setting up all the rules, there seems to be much less interest and chatter on this forum than there use to be. Models show things 10 days out and I want to know the possibility and it seems its difficult to find a place that anyone will discuss it. The general weather forum is not specific enough. Then I really don't know where to look as it gets closer to the event. I find myself coming back to this forum and then having to go elsewhere all the time.


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## VTKilarney (Jan 15, 2016)

skiberg said:


> The bi-polar nature of these threads is exactly what's makes it fun. Quite frankly, I think the whole weather forum is much less fun since the institution of all the "rules". Who cares how far out we speculate? What's the big deal? I love the Lottery mentality that goes with these storms.


Very well said.


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## ss20 (Jan 15, 2016)

skiberg said:


> The bi-polar nature of these threads is exactly what's makes it fun. Quite frankly, I think the whole weather forum is much less fun since the institution of all the "rules". Who cares how far out we speculate? What's the big deal? I love the Lottery mentality that goes with these storms. Its like we are all playing Powerball. Eventually we hit the big one. By limiting our time frames and setting up all the rules, there seems to be much less interest and chatter on this forum than there use to be. Models show things 10 days out and I want to know the possibility and it seems its difficult to find a place that anyone will discuss it. The general weather forum is not specific enough. Then I really don't know where to look as it gets closer to the event. I find myself coming back to this forum and then having to go elsewhere all the time.



Ditto.  It was a lot of fun.  Things got too stuffy over here, IMO.  Anyone who said anything about a storm more than 4 days in advance was shunned.  But I do like the long-term Winter Forecast 2015-2016 thread, as well as the thread for each storm.


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## deadheadskier (Jan 15, 2016)

What rules?  And if there are any, who is enforcing them?  I guess I haven't been paying attention if people are acting too uptight.  I don't visit weather threads often on AZ because you all are usually wrong. 


Speculation is cool and fun. I get it.  I was just joking that there's a lot of wannabe Jim Cantores in here.  

Carry on!!!


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## skiberg (Jan 15, 2016)

The Weather Forum Guidelines. I guess its not that big of a deal then since your the guy who would enforce them if it was an issue.


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## deadheadskier (Jan 15, 2016)

We typically have very little desire to moderate anything.  Most of the time it's a squeaky wheel gets the grease situation.  

Now that you mention it, I do remember a guidelines discussion.  I just think over time people loosen up and forget about the "rules"


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## Tin (Jan 15, 2016)

If everything 7+ days out was put in a thread this year it would look like the Magic thread. Nearly every model run seems to have an awesome storm in the 8-10 day range and then nothing happens. Been absolutely awful to watch models so far this year. 

One tease after the other. 

Even short range is brutal. For example, the shortwave for Monday has been discussed for quite a few days. Here it is on Wednesday. All out crazy blizzard...








Next run, it's gone.


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## Warp Daddy (Jan 15, 2016)

Chit we are projected to get freezing rain tonite and tomorrow grrrr


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## dlague (Jan 15, 2016)

Well in NH the local weather news has been waffling.  Now they are calling for freezing rain to rain in southern NH, Snow to a mix then freezing rain North of Manchester to the north of the Lakes Region and finally 4-6 inches of snow points north of there.


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## Tin (Jan 15, 2016)

dlague said:


> Well in NH the local weather news has been waffling.  Now they are calling for freezing rain to rain in southern NH, Snow to a mix then freezing rain North of Manchester to the north of the Lakes Region and finally 4-6 inches of snow points north of there.




If you want to see how hard it is to forecast this year, check out the Grey NWS snowfall maps. They have been updated 2-3 times a day since Wednesday with this storm. Here is what they are trying to make sense out of.

Min...





Max...


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 15, 2016)

dlague said:


> and finally 4-6 inches of snow points north of there.



This is the year a major resort at the Balsams might be lucrative. However, nowhere save for far northern ME and the Gaspe really has any kind of snow depth. Even the spine of the Greens is crazy thin.


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## skiberg (Jan 15, 2016)

I am ok with the psychotic nature of the Models. I find it kind of fun, especially this year, as it helps me keep hope. There is hardly any snow in the east. I keep looking. I will go to it, but its just not there. Even the Saguenay is thin.


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## Tin (Jan 15, 2016)

skiberg said:


> I am ok with the psychotic nature of the Models. I find it kind of fun, especially this year, as it helps me keep hope. There is hardly any snow in the east. I keep looking. I will go to it, but its just not there. Even the Saguenay is thin.



Then here you go...oh NAM. WaWa powder day!


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## skiberg (Jan 15, 2016)

Now the next few hours of my day will be filled with nervous anticipation, only to ultimately be downtrodden after the next model run. This is why I need to be medicated during the winter.


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## Puck it (Jan 15, 2016)




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## ALLSKIING (Jan 15, 2016)

Tin said:


> If everything 7+ days out was put in a thread this year it would look like the Magic thread. Nearly every model run seems to have an awesome storm in the 8-10 day range and then nothing happens. Been absolutely awful to watch models so far this year.
> 
> One tease after the other.
> 
> ...



That's because it's the GFS...its flawed.


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## skiberg (Jan 15, 2016)

My source for the Models is always you guys. You know a hell of a lot more than I do. Then I spout off to my friends and act like I know stuff. Then they ask me questions and I don't know WTF I am talking about.


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## dlague (Jan 15, 2016)

skiberg said:


> My source for the Models is always you guys. You know a hell of a lot more than I do. Then I spout off to my friends and act like I know stuff. Then they ask me questions and I don't know WTF I am talking about.



That is when you spout NAM this GFS that and EURO stuff


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## Boston Bulldog (Jan 15, 2016)

skiberg said:


> My source for the Models is always you guys. You know a hell of a lot more than I do. Then I spout off to my friends and act like I know stuff. Then they ask me questions and I don't know WTF I am talking about.



Tropical Tidbits.com is a free site which you can access the GFS, NAM, RGEM and even some EURO products on. If you want to know more about the models I would check it out!


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## Tin (Jan 15, 2016)

ALLSKIING said:


> That's because it's the GFS...its flawed.




The same could be said about every model. That was just an example. Let us remember "king" EURO completely missed the blizzard on 1/26 last year, then gave NYC 40" of snow 36 hours before and created panic, and it was having Hurricane Joaquin slam the coast this summer. Never know. This winter is really showing how much ALL the models suck (except the RGEM within 48 hours).


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## dlague (Jan 15, 2016)

Tin said:


> The same could be said about every model. That was just an example. Let us remember "king" EURO completely missed the blizzard on 1/26 last year, then gave NYC 40" of snow 36 hours before and created panic, and it was having Hurricane Joaquin slam the coast this summer. Never know. This winter is really showing how much ALL the models suck (except the RGEM within 48 hours).



I found this to be pretty valueable for learning.

http://weather.unisys.com/index.php


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 15, 2016)

Every 3" to 5" helps enormously at this point.  Beggars cant be choosers.  I'll gobble this minor event up like a starving Ethiopian.


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 15, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Every 3" to 5" helps enormously at this point.  Beggars cant be choosers.  I'll gobble this minor event up like a starving Ethiopian.



Hell, I'm even mildly excited for the sloppy inch we are supposed to get tomorrow 
At least it will stick to the ice!


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## Tin (Jan 15, 2016)

from_the_NEK said:


> I'm even mildly excited for the sloppy inch we are supposed to get tomorrow


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## Puck it (Jan 15, 2016)

Sloppy inch and you can take all that.


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## dlague (Jan 15, 2016)

Puck it said:


> Sloppy inch and you can take all that.



Sounds perverted!


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## wtcobb (Jan 15, 2016)

"I'd prefer more than an inch, even if it does get sloppy." - She


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## Tin (Jan 15, 2016)

LOL. Who wants blizzard conditions?


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## abc (Jan 15, 2016)

Now that the rules are disregarded and the chatter are flying, would anyone care to say something about where there will be snow (on the ground) that won't be washed away tomorrow? 

And what will the drive home on Monday be like?


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## Harvey (Jan 15, 2016)

skiberg said:


> My source for the Models is always you guys. You know a hell of a lot more than I do. Then I spout off to my friends and act like I know stuff. Then they ask me questions and I don't know WTF I am talking about.



This FTW.


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## Tin (Jan 16, 2016)

Well, things are getting interesting now.


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## ss20 (Jan 16, 2016)

Tin said:


> Well, things are getting interesting now.



Lot more snow and the snow/rain line is a lot more south and things were predicted to be.  Everyone knew Maine was going to be the Jackpot for this storm, but if Jiminy Peak and Berkshire East both got 4-6 inches I would not be surprised.  Areas south of Killington will do great.


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 16, 2016)

Ended up with a nice 3" here. Probably more above 1500'. Not even sloppy


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## catsup948 (Jan 16, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Lot more snow and the snow/rain line is a lot more south and things were predicted to be.  Everyone knew Maine was going to be the Jackpot for this storm, but if Jiminy Peak and Berkshire East both got 4-6 inches I would not be surprised.  Areas south of Killington will do great.



I was at Berkshire East.  I'd say they maybe got 3 inches at the very top.  Bottom was an inch of slush.  Skiing was good though.


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## xwhaler (Jan 16, 2016)

Gunstock reported 4" which I'd say was accurate.  Virtually no lines at one of the busiest mtns in NH on MLK Sat with fresh snow was pretty surprising/awesome.


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## Bostonian (Jan 17, 2016)

xwhaler said:


> Gunstock reported 4" which I'd say was accurate.  Virtually no lines at one of the busiest mtns in NH on MLK Sat with fresh snow was pretty surprising/awesome.



Yeah yesterday was pretty decent.  Had I known you were at the hill I'd have taken a couple of runs with you x!   I got first tracks on trigger and there were great pockets of powder everywhere. 


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## nicospiniello (Jan 22, 2016)

Just some snow, no storm we got


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## dlague (Jan 22, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> I have such a hard time with these threads.  So, bipolar.  It's on, it's a bust, it's on, it's a bust.  :lol:



That is what makes it fun!  Feel depressed, get psyched, feel depressed, get psyched and in the end do what we normally do - go skiing no matter what!


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