# 1/21 Storm Discussion Thread



## Greg (Jan 18, 2011)

What up yo?


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## WoodCore (Jan 18, 2011)

Got my eye on this one!


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## drjeff (Jan 18, 2011)

Going to be dryer snow than todays event, and then a BUNCH of layers will be needed to enjoy the fluff on Saturday!  The North Pole appears to be headed for New England behind this one


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## Glenn (Jan 18, 2011)

I love the weather pattern we're in...I really do. Keep em comming!


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## UVSHTSTRM (Jan 18, 2011)

Update me on this.  I have heard "storm", but haven't heard prelim snow amounts.  I hear "storm" used way to often (by those on TV, pushing ad revenue) when amounts are 3-6 inches.  Not sure if it's my Maine roots or what, but 8-12 is a storm, 3-6 is a quick shovel and go about my day.  This will be all snow as well correct?  I know temps will drop as the week goes on, but wasn't sure if there were any rain/snow line type crap with this one.


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## WJenness (Jan 18, 2011)

BIG NUMBER, BIG NUMBER, NO WHAMMY, NO WHAMMY....







(anti-caps)

-w


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## MommaBear (Jan 18, 2011)

Glenn said:


> I love the weather pattern we're in...I really do. Keep em comming!



Obviously a man without kids...lol!  We are on day 3 of "snow days" to be made up.  Not to mention vacation time used to stay home with them.  Wouldn't be so bad if we could time it right to be in VT skiing...but the cancellations come too late to maneuver quickly enough.


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## gmcunni (Jan 18, 2011)

MommaBear said:


> Obviously a man without kids...lol!  We are on day 3 of "snow days" to be made up.  Not to mention vacation time used to stay home with them.  Wouldn't be so bad if we could time it right to be in VT skiing...but the cancellations come too late to maneuver quickly enough.



our 4th day here.. already talk of cutting short Feb school vacation, which is fine with my kids since we'll be away and they won't be affected.


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## wa-loaf (Jan 18, 2011)

WJenness said:


> BIG NUMBER, BIG NUMBER, NO WHAMMY, NO WHAMMY....
> 
> 
> 
> ...



This please!


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## drjeff (Jan 18, 2011)

MommaBear said:


> Obviously a man without kids...lol!  We are on day 3 of "snow days" to be made up.  Not to mention vacation time used to stay home with them.  Wouldn't be so bad if we could time it right to be in VT skiing...but the cancellations come too late to maneuver quickly enough.





gmcunni said:


> our 4th day here.. already talk of cutting short Feb school vacation, which is fine with my kids since we'll be away and they won't be affected.



The town that my office is in hasn't had the kids in school in a week   Last wed/thurs - snow days, Friday - staff development day, Monday - holiday, snow day today - Hope the kids will like going to school on the 4th of July!  :lol:


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## Glenn (Jan 18, 2011)

MommaBear said:


> Obviously a man without kids...lol!  We are on day 3 of "snow days" to be made up.  Not to mention vacation time used to stay home with them.  Wouldn't be so bad if we could time it right to be in VT skiing...but the cancellations come too late to maneuver quickly enough.



I figure at this rate, the kids will be in school until July! 

It is hard to time the storms. Seems like the only way to ski in it is to be up before the fact.


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## Greg (Jan 18, 2011)

6-12" more for us?


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## gmcunni (Jan 18, 2011)

Greg said:


> 6-12" more for us?



yes please


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## psyflyer (Jan 18, 2011)

Today burke got 6-10 inches, solid 10 inches past 3000 feet.  It snowed all day and still going.  There were maybe 25 people on the whole mountain and we rode glades all day.  It was an awesome day chasing powder knee deep in places in offmarked glades like furburger, memorable day indeed.  Glades are in phenomenal shape, come enjoy them this weekend as they are better now than at any point last season.  We were supposed to get 3 inches by tonight and a further 3 by tomorrow, instead at circa 1500 feet (home) we have 6 already, and hoping for more into tomorrow.  Classic day at Burke, mountain should be 100% open (it was for us.  What a day.


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## psyflyer (Jan 18, 2011)

Oops meant to post on the other storm thread...


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## SKIQUATTRO (Jan 18, 2011)

we left burke a day to soon!!!  still had a great time...


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## Glenn (Jan 19, 2011)

NWS out of Upton is saying advisory...maybe warning levels for CT. 

NWS out of Albany: _HIGHLY PRELIMINARY
ACCUMULATIONS POINTS TOWARD HIGH END ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I90 IN NY...INCLUDING SOUTHERN VT AND THE BERKS WITH
VALUES OF 4-7 INCHES. FURTHER NORTH...2-5 INCHES WHICH WILL BE
BORDERLINE HEADLINES.

_

Gil on News8 said the timing for this one in CT is starting around 1AM...then ending at 2PM.


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## drjeff (Jan 19, 2011)

We need 3 things to come together to change this from a light/moderate storm to a significant storm.

#1 the basis of this storm is a moisture starved Alberta Clipper type low that will be moving in from the Great Lakes area and is projected to hit the Atlantic at the Jersey Shore and track South of Long Island/Nantucket.

The questions to to determined, is how quickly/slowly will this storms Eastward progess be. How slowly/rapidly will it intensify when it gets over the waters of the Atlantic, and lastly how much of the cold, DRY Arctic air will be in place at the beginning of the storm.

If this storm is moving East too quickly, the it will be further away as it intensifies, thus keeping snow totals down, especially in Western New England.  Same thing if it's intensification happens a little slower than expected.  Lastly, if more Arctic air is inplace at the inception of the storm, then it will take  abit longer to staurate the atmosphere from cloud to ground and get the snow reaching the ground.

Gotta watch those 3 things, but as of now the best bets for higher snow totals would be over Eastern New England


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## MommaBear (Jan 20, 2011)

Glenn said:


> It is hard to time the storms. Seems like the only way to ski in it is to be up before the fact.



That is why I sign on here - gets me the weather better than the weatherman!  lol!  And with a lot more notice.  I see the speculation threads start and I start rearranging client load.  I just don't like to pull the kids from school - so I need a pretty certain "snow day" indication before I head out the night before with them.  We've only been successful a couple of times.  But they were so worth it!


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## Glenn (Jan 20, 2011)

I hear ya! When the planets align and you can be there, it's really sweet. 

This storm looks so-so. We may end up with more in CT than VT. But snow is snow! And I'm sure it will bring people up North.


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## drjeff (Jan 20, 2011)

MommaBear said:


> That is why I sign on here - gets me the weather better than the weatherman!  lol!  And with a lot more notice.  I see the speculation threads start and I start rearranging client load.  I just don't like to pull the kids from school - so I need a pretty certain "snow day" indication before I head out the night before with them.  We've only been successful a couple of times.  But they were so worth it!



Unless things change dramatically towards the dry side of things in the next 18 hours or so, I'd say that the chances of a snowday in CT tommorrow are above 90%.  While the final quantity of snow may not be too much (probably 3 to as much as maybe 8" statewide in CT with the higher amounts more likely the further East you go), the timing is going to be the problem for school districts, as most of the snow will fall between say 3AM and 10AM - so the morning rush will pretty much be in the middle of the storm


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## Greg (Jan 20, 2011)

Both Albany and Taunton are calling for 3-6" in the greater Sundown USA region.


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## St. Bear (Jan 20, 2011)

Greg said:


> Both Albany and Taunton are calling for 3-6" in the greater *Ski* Sundown USA region.



Unless you were talking about this place.


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## hammer (Jan 20, 2011)

So will this one be a bust for NNE?


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## billski (Jan 20, 2011)

hammer said:


> So will this one be a bust for NNE?


A couple inches looks probable, but who cares?  They've been getting 1-2" a day (MRG, Wildcat and Loon just reported in with 5-7" overnight), and the NNE forecast continues for 1-2"/day for the next 3 days.  The skiing up north is going to be magnificent.


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## billski (Jan 20, 2011)

Magic is going to be looking pretty sweet for the weekend.  Several inches of the wet stuff and 2-5" Friday is going to be a great setup.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Jan 20, 2011)

3-5" here on LI, hopefully the kids will have a delayed opening...no reason to cancel school for 3-5"


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## WinnChill (Jan 20, 2011)

billski said:


> Magic is going to be looking pretty sweet for the weekend.  Several inches of the wet stuff and 2-5" Friday is going to be a great setup.



We'll probably tweak our snowfall totals up a bit this afternoon...model track is a smidge closer so maybe another inch or two for SVT-SNH...so maybe around half a foot for some resorts.  Probably won't go much higher than that since this will sort of "sweep" by rather than plow into us like other storms.  We'll keep you posted though!


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## St. Bear (Jan 20, 2011)

3-6 predicted in NW Jersey.  My wife will probably have a snow day tomorrow.  She said that yesterday kids were coming in during 4th period and a bus went off the road because of the ice.  That means they'll be quick to pull the trigger tomorrow.


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## severine (Jan 20, 2011)

gmcunni said:


> our 4th day here.. already talk of cutting short Feb school vacation, which is fine with my kids since we'll be away and they won't be affected.


My daughter's school only has a long weekend in Feb so there's no vacation to take away from-it's basically just Presidents Day. Whatever the case, it all has to be made up by the end of June: it's illegal in CT for kids to go to regular school in July, apparently.



drjeff said:


> Unless things change dramatically towards the dry side of things in the next 18 hours or so, I'd say that the chances of a snowday in CT tommorrow are above 90%.  While the final quantity of snow may not be too much (probably 3 to as much as maybe 8" statewide in CT with the higher amounts more likely the further East you go), the timing is going to be the problem for school districts, as most of the snow will fall between say 3AM and 10AM - so the morning rush will pretty much be in the middle of the storm


Weather man an hour or 2 ago said that most, if not all, schools would be canceled tomorrow. He also called for 6-8" in NW CT.


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## gmcunni (Jan 20, 2011)

state of CT official info -


MODERATE WINTER STORM EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD WEATHER THIS WEEKEND…

The latest runs of the GFS and NAM models are in fair agreement on the potential for a moderate snowstorm late tonight and Friday morning.  Both models are forecasting that a low pressure system will move East from Virginia this evening to the Del Mar Va Peninsula overnight.  The low is then forecast to move Northeast and slowly intensify, passing Southeast of Cape Cod Friday afternoon.  The following forecast is based on a blend of the GFS and NAM Models and has a fair to good confidence level at this time:



*Tonight*: Becoming cloudy by late evening with light snow developing from Southwest to Northeast between 10:00 PM and 1:00 AM Friday morning.  The snow may become moderate to heavy at times by daybreak.  Lows in the teens.

*Friday Morning*: Moderate to occasionally heavy snow during the morning rush hour, tapering off to flurries from Southwest to Northeast between 9:00 – 11:00 AM.  The impact on the morning rush hour is forecast to be moderate to major with 4 – 6 inches of snow on roads and temperatures in the low 20’s.

*Friday Afternoon:* Flurries ending by 2:00 PM.  Total accumulations of 5 – 9” statewide.  The impact on the afternoon rush hour is forecast to be minor to moderate at this time.


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## Glenn (Jan 20, 2011)

This is gettting interesting! Let's hope it keeps trending in our favor.


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## jaywbigred (Jan 20, 2011)

With 20-40 mph winds on Saturday, is this going to do much for us other than base build in the trees?


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## Greg (Jan 20, 2011)

Warning level snows for NoCT..


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## hammer (Jan 20, 2011)

Greg said:


> Warning level snows for NoCT..


Same for central and eastern MA.


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## Jisch (Jan 20, 2011)

It seems in past years when we'd get a hint of a storm the totals would keep dropping as the storm approached, this year they go up with every new forecast. 

Loving it (though I am starting to miss my bike just a little). 

John


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## WJenness (Jan 20, 2011)

NWS just updated forecast totals for Woburn, MA

It was at 1-3" total this morning... then went to 2-5".

New totals are 4-10"

Could be an interesting commute in the AM.

-w


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## riverc0il (Jan 20, 2011)

It seems like many of the storms this past month have had updated totals the closer the storm gets. Very interesting. A pattern I can appreciate!


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## roark (Jan 20, 2011)

No kidding. I love seeing the maps trend up (or like today go from 'no significant snowfall predicted' to some decent accums)... Great trend!


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## Greg (Jan 20, 2011)

21 degrees with moderate snow already. Bring it!


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## Glenn (Jan 21, 2011)

I'd say 2-3" in my neck of the flatlands this AM. Mt Snow is reporting 4"...and a few more to fall into early afternoon.


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## Jisch (Jan 21, 2011)

5-6" on the ground here in NE CT right now. Looks like a good weekend for BC in CT (maybe a trip to Thunderbolt!).


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## gmcunni (Jan 21, 2011)

Glenn said:


> I'd say 2-3" in my neck of the flatlands this AM.



same here.. epic fail!


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## kingslug (Jan 21, 2011)

Going to be cold as a mother this weekend...20 below zero overnight in the cats!!!


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## Euler (Jan 21, 2011)

2-3" down here in Putney.  4 inches sounds about right for upper elevations at Mt. Snow


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## wa-loaf (Jan 21, 2011)

6 fluffy inches and still going.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Jan 21, 2011)

About 5" here on LI (north shore) lite and fluffy...


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## Glenn (Jan 21, 2011)

Euler said:


> 2-3" down here in Putney.  4 inches sounds about right for upper elevations at Mt. Snow



Well, not much snow in the Brat area...but saves me a $15 plow bill. :lol:

We've had the driveway plowed more in January than we did the entire winter last year. Same goes for snowblower use in CT.


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## ERJ-145CA (Jan 21, 2011)

I just finished shoveling the driveway, and it looks like 5" here in NW Jersey.  The snow pile at the corner of my driveway is now taller than me.  I'd say current snow depth in my yard is 12".


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## drjeff (Jan 21, 2011)

Got about 5" of fluff at my office, and the sun is out now.  Just about done with the work day - quick trip home to play with the snowblower for a few min and then off to see how much snow I'll get to shovel out of my front walk/back porch in VT this evening - as much as I love snow, all this clearing out of it is starting to get a bit tedious lately


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## bigbog (Jan 21, 2011)

What a month!  About 8" here..@post-time.  Off-resort snowcover is on the rebound8)


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## jaywbigred (Jan 21, 2011)

5 inches or so here in NJ.

Wondering what the total was for Mt. Snow...


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## jaywbigred (Jan 21, 2011)

jaywbigred said:


> 5 inches or so here in NJ.
> 
> Wondering what the total was for Mt. Snow...



Woops, afternoon snow report now saying 7 new inches! Nice.


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## billski (Jan 21, 2011)

jaywbigred said:


> Woops, afternoon snow report now saying 7 new inches! Nice.



Nice since the spotter reports in the valley are showing 4" in the valley.


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## Greg (Jan 21, 2011)

3-4" here, 5+ at Sundown. The snow pack in my yard is still easily 20". Various layers of powder and breakable crust.



drjeff said:


> as much as I love snow, all this clearing out of it is starting to get a bit tedious lately



I love everything about this month's snows, even clearing it.


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## gmcunni (Jan 21, 2011)

Greg said:


> I love everything about this month's snows, even clearing it.



i don't like the ice dam on my roof which has led to a leak in my basement, other than that its all good!


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## Jisch (Jan 21, 2011)

I don't like having to make a pathway to my oil tank so I can get oil - of course its fully across the front of my house, I started making the path today. The snow blower is having a tough time chewing through those layers. 

John


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## wa-loaf (Jan 21, 2011)

Just got done shoveling the drive. It's not to big but I hope the repair guy fixes the snowblower by the next storm. 7-8" here.


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## billski (Jan 21, 2011)

gmcunni said:


> i don't like the ice dam on my roof which has led to a leak in my basement, other than that its all good!



I had to resort to a snow shovel to keep a minor dam bay.  

A few years ago, we had an ice dam that got so bad it poured buckets, and I mean dozens of gallons out of the window into the living room.  We had to tear out the ceiling, re-vent and re insulate this 60 YO house.  Not pretty.


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## billski (Jan 21, 2011)

Jisch said:


> I don't like having to make a pathway to my oil tank so I can get oil - of course its fully across the front of my house, I started making the path today. The snow blower is having a tough time chewing through those layers.
> 
> John



My oil guy won't come any more unless there is a path.  So I made a path.   Skinniest dam path you've ever seen!


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## billski (Jan 21, 2011)

drjeff said:


> Got about 5" of fluff at my office, and the sun is out now.  Just about done with the work day - quick trip home to play with the snowblower for a few min and then off to see how much snow I'll get to shovel out of my front walk/back porch in VT this evening - as much as I love snow, all this clearing out of it is starting to get a bit tedious lately



Dr. Jeff, 
Do as my neighbor does.  He says, "I clear the snow with my checkbook!"


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## severine (Jan 21, 2011)

Snowing again. I thought this storm was supposed to be over already?


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## Glenn (Jan 21, 2011)

A good foot in the Brat area since last weekend. Awesome!  

Plow guy was plowing when we rolled up tonight.


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