# Lions, Tigers, Hurricanes, Oh My!



## Boston Bulldog (Apr 27, 2014)

Well with May coming up, the Tropics should become active soon. 

A strong El Nino this year should subdue activity in the Atlantic Basin, but coming from last year's record quiet season we can only go up! 

Lets hope for some OTS monsters this year, for the sake of surfing!


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## jack97 (Apr 29, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Well with May coming up, the Tropics should become active soon.
> 
> A strong El Nino this year should subdue activity in the Atlantic Basin*, but coming from last year's record quiet season we can only go up! *
> 
> Lets hope for some OTS monsters this year, for the sake of surfing!





holy emissions batman! I thought all this carbon was suppose increase storm activity......

Anyways, there's a strong trend that the east coast and mid west will have a cooler summer when the great lakes have large ice coverage. This past winter (and it was a great one) did set record ice coverage. Not sure what this means for a strong/weak El Nino.


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## snoseek (Apr 30, 2014)

Summer outlook:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3



Time will tell. Media hyping a super elnino, comparing strength to 97-98. If that turns out to be true then hurricane activity should be mellow.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jun 1, 2014)

yawn


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## jack97 (Jun 2, 2014)

hilarious summary and trends of the hurricane season coming up by Bastardi. 

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-may-31-2014


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## Boston Bulldog (Jun 10, 2014)

GFS likes the Carribean for a possible cyclone next week. Latest run spat out a low end hurricane smacking western Cuba before limping into Florida as a TS. Something to watch.

This storm has appeared in the latest 3-4 runs, in different forms. Today's was by far the strongest.


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## yeggous (Jun 11, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> GFS likes the Carribean for a possible cyclone next week. Latest run spat out a low end hurricane smacking western Cuba before limping into Florida as a TS. Something to watch.
> 
> This storm has appeared in the latest 3-4 runs, in different forms. Today's was by far the strongest.



This has been true most days for the last 3 weeks. It is consistent with climatology but unreliable.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


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## Boston Bulldog (Jun 11, 2014)

..


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## Boston Bulldog (Jun 30, 2014)

This is invest 91L, the first notable development in the Atlantic this year. It is a large gyre like vortex that has been developing over the warm Gulf Stream waters. Today, spiral banding tightened and a small hot tower formed over the center, two signs indicative of tropical development. In response to this, the Hurricane Hunters are out investigating this storm and right now it looks likely they'll find the first TD of the year!

Most models develop this thing into TS Arthur and send it meandering north into the Carolina's and south of Nantucket later this week. Some models (most notably the EURO) have this thing reaching Cat 1 intensity before landfall near the Outer banks. 

This is a very interesting set up, and only time will tell if Arthur really decides to show up.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jul 1, 2014)

Arthur has formed and NHC likes it to become a hurricane making landfall in the outer banks.


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## ss20 (Jul 1, 2014)

Of course its gonna hit us Friday night and Saturday :-(

Mother Nature- F***ing with the northeast since 2011.  

August 2011- Irene
October 2011- Snowtober
Winter 2011-2012- No snow
October 2012- Sandy
July 2014- Arthur


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## jack97 (Jul 1, 2014)

Bastardi had this called several days ago.... outer bank was going to get nailed. In addition, he has been stating the east coast is due for some intense storms given the AMO is in transition. 


http://www.weatherbell.com/raging-weatherbull---july-1-2014


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## dlague (Jul 1, 2014)

We are on the Cape and it is predicted to side swipe this area!  Should make things fun'


.......


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## Cannonball (Jul 1, 2014)

dlague said:


> We are on the Cape and it is predicted to side swipe this area!  Should make things fun'
> 
> 
> .......



Surf's up!


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## Boston Bulldog (Jul 2, 2014)

I'll try and post a satellite image soon to back this up, but an eye like feature has begun to form and wind speeds are up to 60mph.


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## ScottySkis (Jul 2, 2014)

As of Wed July 2? I guess. Hopefully this map is wrong.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jul 2, 2014)

Eye see you Arthur.


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## jimk (Jul 3, 2014)

Photo of Hurricane Arthur from the International Space Station.  Taken by US astronaut Reid Wiseman:


BTW, I have a coworker who knows Reid, they are both Naval Aviators and we have been tracking some of his activity since he went up to the ISS about a month ago.  He's been sharing a lot of great photos via social media/twitter/etc:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/innovations/wp/2014/07/01/39-reminders-why-this-astronaut-won-twitter-in-june/


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## Boston Bulldog (Jul 3, 2014)




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## fbrissette (Jul 3, 2014)

Stay tough North Carolina.  Best of luck.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jul 3, 2014)

Starting to look scary. Hurricane Hunters are reporting sustained winds in excess of 100 mph, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's a Category 2 right now.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jul 3, 2014)

Arthur is rapidly intensifying.


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## thetrailboss (Jul 3, 2014)

Crazy....

http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/03/us/holiday-weather/index.html?hpt=hp_t1








This has got to be one of the earliest hurricanes of the season on record.


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## jack97 (Jul 3, 2014)

thetrailboss said:


> This has got to be one of the earliest hurricanes of the season on record.



Must be all the SUV we are driving or the cows we eat. 

BTW, here's the data of when the hurricanes/tropical storms have occurred.


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## Cannonball (Jul 6, 2014)

jack97 said:


> Must be all the SUV we are driving or the cows we eat.



What's the label for inserting AGW theory into every random/possible conversation?  Oh yeah.... "alarmist".   It's funny how the people creating the label are the only ones actually performing the behavior.


Anyway,
Impact report from Arthur in the South Shore of MA:
- Friday: almost 4" of rain. Not much wind.  I had to bail out a dozen boats boats but no real marine threats.
- Saturday: Significant N winds and early rain.  Surf was chest high but sloppy with longshore rips that were PIA and potentially dangerous.  Lobster rolls unavailable at the local Pound since guys couldn't get out and fish.  Tough break for local economy on a big weekend.
- Sunday:  DONE.  Flat calm and sunny.  Had hoped for some clean swell today but it just wasn't there.  Maybe some longterm swell rolling in later in the week?


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## dlague (Jul 7, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> Surf's up!



BTW the surf was pretty good on Thursday afternoon and Friday at Nauset Beach.  Rather than having typical wave sets with 3-4 in a row with some breaks, the waves were constant and about 10 seconds apart.  You had to work at what you got because the waves were powerful when trying to get back out.  Best two days of the week surf wise!  We got there later on Thursday so unfortunately the waves were cresting and crashing on shore.  So actual surfing was limited, bodyboarding was much better.  Friday got there prior to low tide and were able to get more surfing and bodyboarding in.

BTW we rode out the storm in a location that was closest to it on the cape (Chatham) - the winds when gusting were pretty interesting but nothing destructive.  It was funny to see all the news trucks that were parked at the Coast Guard Light House and Beach in Chatham!


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## jack97 (Jul 8, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> What's the label for inserting AGW theory into every random/possible conversation?  Oh yeah.... "alarmist".*   It's funny how the people creating the label are the only ones actually performing the behavior*.



Almost missed this one..... And yes it is funny, you seem to be in the thick of it as well, more so with the insults and the derogatory remarks you throw out at various posters. That's straight from the alarmist handbook.


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## Cannonball (Jul 8, 2014)

jack97 said:


> Almost missed this one..... And yes it is funny, you seem to be in the thick of it as well, more so with the insults and the derogatory remarks you throw out at various posters. That's straight from the alarmist handbook.



Seems to me that you're the one working AGW into every possible thread. This thread is a good example. I can't think of a single case where I have done that (can you?). So which one of us is the alarmist? I don't own the handbook you referenced, where did you get your copy? Can I grab that on amazon? Seems like it would help me understand your perspective.


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## jack97 (Jul 8, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> Seems to me that you're the one working AGW into every possible thread. This thread is a good example. I can't think of a single case where I have done that (can you?). So which one of us is the alarmist? I don't own the handbook you referenced, where did you get your copy? Can I grab that on amazon? Seems like it would help me understand your perspective.



came from other threads.... you want start that again?


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## Cannonball (Jul 8, 2014)

jack97 said:


> came from other threads.... you want start that again?



Huh?  If you can find a single thread where I brought up AGW first, go right ahead. I think you'll find that this is your topic to be alarmist about. (Bringing into this unrelated thread is ab good example)


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## jack97 (Jul 8, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> Huh?  If you can find a single thread where I brought up AGW first, go right ahead. I think you'll find that this is your topic to be alarmist about. (Bringing into this unrelated thread is ab good example)



Talking about how you're taking the alarmist approach of using insults and ridicule. It reeks of your arrogance which most alarmist have anyways.


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## Cannonball (Jul 9, 2014)

jack97 said:


> Talking about how you're taking the alarmist approach of using insults and ridicule. It reeks of your arrogance which most alarmist have anyways.



Funny, that sounds like an insult to me.

An "Alarmist" is someone who continually raises the alarm.  You are the only one continually bringing up the topic and inserting it into every unrelated discussion.  We wouldn't even be discussing it if you didn't keep raising the alarm.


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## jack97 (Jul 9, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> Funny, that sounds like an insult to me.



Take it for what it is..... I'm chuclking about myself, for someone with so much arrogance, who misinterpreted a vid interview and did a 180 flip on ocean being sinks to sources.



Cannonball said:


> An "Alarmist" is someone who continually raises the alarm. You are the only one continually bringing up the topic and inserting it into every unrelated discussion. *We wouldn't even be discussing it if you didn't keep raising the alarm*.



haha... what alarm is this?


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## jack97 (Jul 9, 2014)

By the way, been meaning to post this hurricane and storm related plots  but work and bantering w/ cb is getting in the way.


Landfall Hurricanes and Cylones have been low.






Accumulated Cyclone Energy has been at a low as well.



Maybe posting these plots is "alarmist" in the sense that we're in a storm drought and have not been experiencing as many hurricanes in the past. Bastardi et al have correlated this to PDO and AMO cycles from the past. However, based on these cycles, the east coast is due for a big storm.


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## Boston Bulldog (Aug 3, 2014)

Tropical Storm Bertha is currently tracking through the Bahamas. It's supposed to slide between the US and Bermuna, intensifying into a minimal hurricane in the process... Surf's up!


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## Boston Bulldog (Aug 3, 2014)




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## twinplanx (Aug 3, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> View attachment 13080



She's threading the needle 

Sent from my SCH-S735C using Tapatalk


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## Boston Bulldog (Aug 28, 2014)

Hurricane Cristobal, a fish storm. Surf's up!


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## fbrissette (Aug 28, 2014)

Just got back from the Bahamas.  Got some really big waves from Cristobal (tropical storm at that point).  The diving boats could not go out which was a pain, but we had lots of fun playing in the waves.


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 3, 2014)

The 2014 season is officially over and even though it was quiet, at least we got some eye candy! (Unlike last year...shudder)

Category 4 Major Hurricane Gonzalo


Category 3 Major Hurricane Edouard


Category 2 Hurricane Arthur


Season Summary: (Note how far north Gonzalo was able to remain a tropical system)


Here's to a long and snowy winter!


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## bigbog (Dec 13, 2014)

However on a positive, serious side...heard news this morning of Lake Shasta(CA) levels having risen ~10' already.. since the rains arrived...
Of course the bad situations are in the normally bone dry soil at the edge of hills = landslides.  Hope someone took some time to think up a few logical & successful ideas into channeling the water somewhere...y/n?
Hope analysts/engineers are able to capture as much rainwater as possible...


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