# The 01/22 - 01/23 Storm thread (Could a snowstorm actully hit the Poconos?)



## BenedictGomez (Jan 18, 2016)

Normally I wouldn't start a snowstorm thread four days out, but normally literally every major global computer model isn't simultaneously showing a MASSIVE hit.

Current output projections (aka "Snow Porn") below.


*EURO








*
*Canuck






*

*GFS







**
EDIT:*

I guess I'll occasionally update these maps as newer versions come out, and add the UKIE if I can find it.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 18, 2016)

Bastardi's kid just put out a map of the expected timeline, which is always useful.


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## Tin (Jan 18, 2016)

Trending south into a Blue Hill Mauler. Hopefully it comes a bit further north like 1996's blizz and helps out the Berks and southern areas. The Poconos will get the snow they desperately need to save what is left of their season.

I would not stress enough the issues with models and the time frame here. This energy is still around Hawaii. A lot could still happen and it could be an epic failure. Just to be safe I'm going to go wash my car...


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 18, 2016)

Tin said:


> Trending south into a Blue Hill Mauler. Hopefully it comes a bit further north like 1996's blizz and helps out the Berks and southern areas. The Poconos will get the snow they desperately need to save what is left of their season.
> 
> I would not stress enough the issues with models and the time frame here. This energy is still around Hawaii.* A lot could still happen and it could be an epic failure.* Just to be safe I'm going to go wash my car...



This looks pretty certain at this point.  Only way it's a failure is if it shifts big to the east and snows over the fish.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 18, 2016)

Wissahickon Ski Club gets the goods!


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 18, 2016)

Looks like the new Euro came about 25 or 30 miles north.  Folks will be skiing almost 4 FEET of fresh in WV were this to verify. lol


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 18, 2016)

18z GFS gets "bigger", which I imagine could be interpreted as caving to the Euro.j


EDIT:  Mean ensemble is out, so I replaced the GFS operational with it.


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## abc (Jan 18, 2016)

I'm keeping my toes crossed (can't type with crossed fingers) that it'll come true. We need it. 

The fact I stayed home this weekend and missing the small storm up north also have me itching for something in my backyard. 

And the fact that my new skis came in and is ready to get its first day!


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 18, 2016)

abc said:


> I'm keeping my toes crossed (can't type with crossed fingers) that it'll come true. We need it.



It's coming true.  

 The energy isn't on-shore yet, so there could be a decent shift somewhere, but it's definitely going to snow, that's for sure.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 18, 2016)

00z GFS out.  Similar to 18z GFS and more than 18z ensembles. Looks to have come another 15 or 20 miles north.   Cant wait to see the ensembles.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 18, 2016)

00z Canuck comes in a bit north and a bit juicier with a much larger pcp shield getting decently into Vermont.


This is a potential HECS, why is nobody other than me seemingly very excited about this?!?!?!?


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## mriceyman (Jan 19, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> 00z Canuck comes in a bit north and a bit juicier with a much larger pcp shield getting decently into Vermont.
> 
> 
> This is a potential HECS, why is nobody other than me seemingly very excited about this?!?!?!?



Ive been waiting a month and a half to get plowable snow here.. Figures first storm will be a banger


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## ss20 (Jan 19, 2016)

Well, the 06z GFS came in a lot more south and a lot less precipitous.  Jackpot moved north and east again... Northern NJ and Eastern PA in the bulls eye.


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## fcksummer (Jan 19, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> 00z Canuck comes in a bit north and a bit juicier with a much larger pcp shield getting decently into Vermont.
> 
> 
> This is a potential HECS, why is nobody other than me seemingly very excited about this?!?!?!?



It's way too far south for my liking. Looks like I'll be doing more snow removal at work than actual snowboarding.


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## dlague (Jan 19, 2016)

Go figure - decent storm seems to be approaching and VT, NH and ME ski areas may not get much out of it.


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## abc (Jan 19, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> This is a potential HECS, why is nobody other than me seemingly very excited about this?!?!?!?


It's still 4-5 days away. Past experience is 5 days for WHETHER there'll be a storm anywhere in the northeast and 3 days for WHERE.

So I'm watching it but not getting excited yet.


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## catsup948 (Jan 19, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> 00z Canuck comes in a bit north and a bit juicier with a much larger pcp shield getting decently into Vermont.
> 
> 
> This is a potential HECS, why is nobody other than me seemingly very excited about this?!?!?!?



If I skied in West Virginia I would. I'll get excited if the Berkshires get hit by a huge deformation band and we get 12 inches.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 19, 2016)

abc said:


> It's still 4-5 days away. Past experience is 5 days for WHETHER there'll be a storm anywhere in the northeast and 3 days for WHERE.
> 
> So I'm watching it but *not getting excited yet.*



You should be.  This isn't going to be a Lucy yanking the football situation.  I'll be skiing somewhere on Sunday, the "where" is the unknown.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 19, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> You should be.  This isn't going to be a Lucy yanking the football situation.  I'll be skiing somewhere on Sunday, the "where" is the unknown.



Bear Creek? Spring Mountain?


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## abc (Jan 19, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'll be skiing somewhere on Sunday, the "where" is the unknown.


My point exactly. 

I'm watching. But until the picture gets a bit clear on the WHERE (and precisely when) part, I can't get all that excited just yet. 

Put another way, I'm excited that I'll be skiing somewhere on Sunday, on natural snow. But my excitement level will be proportional to the condition that it would shape up to be. I guess having already 10 days under my belt, I'm a bit more jaded than others.


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## Not Sure (Jan 19, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> You should be.  This isn't going to be a Lucy yanking the football situation.  I'll be skiing somewhere on Sunday, the "where" is the unknown.



BC ...NO lift lines! If this is the big one everyone who hasn't skied yet will be out. Get off the lift ski 300' and get in line again!


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## gmcunni (Jan 19, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


>



why is the highest snow fall totals labeled "worst of conditions", is't it really BEST ????


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 19, 2016)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> *If this is the big one everyone who hasn't skied yet will be out.* Get off the lift ski 300' and get in line again!



If this goes north, I'll simply ski Plattekill = no lift lines.

If this stays as projected, I really have very little experience skiing legitimate powder days in the Poconos, since legitimate powder days in the Poconos are rarer than a three-legged albino deer, so I dont know how bad the lines will be.  One thing that should work in favor of diminished lines (at least after lunch) is the fact the AFC Championship game kicks off at 3pm.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 19, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> If this goes north, I'll simply ski Plattekill = no lift lines.
> 
> If this stays as projected, I really have very little experience skiing legitimate powder days in the Poconos, since legitimate powder days in the Poconos are rarer than a three-legged albino deer, so I dont know how bad the lines will be.  One thing that should work in favor of diminished lines (at least after lunch) is the fact the AFC Championship game kicks off at 3pm.



If this hits try Jack Frost. Usually short lines anyway and probably has the only legitimate gladed terrain in PA.


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## Smellytele (Jan 19, 2016)

As other have said can't get excited until I know where. It hitting anywhere south or west of Vermont does me now good except for maybe keeping some of those people away from the slopes which looking at it that way does excite me some.


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## Not Sure (Jan 19, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> Bear Creek? Spring Mountain?



Bear Creeks not steep enough for 8" of powder let alone 2'.
Top section good for turns after that straight line to lift .
They have a few unofficial gladed sections.

Was there yesterday with the little guy , almost 100% open but nothing in the woods.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 19, 2016)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Bear Creeks not steep enough for 8" of powder let alone 2'.
> Top section good for turns after that straight line to lift .
> They have a few unofficial gladed sections.
> 
> Was there yesterday with the little guy , almost 100% open but nothing in the woods.



Bear Creek was my home "mountain" when I was a kid! The woods skier's left of Timberline can be quite fun on the very rare occasions there's enough snow. There's an annoying hike back up though. We used to nickname them the "back bowls" of Bear Creek.


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## abc (Jan 19, 2016)

Time to stock up on bread and milk! The Saturday storm is now on New York Time. :roll:


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## benski (Jan 19, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> You should be.  This isn't going to be a Lucy yanking the football situation.  I'll be skiing somewhere on Sunday, the "where" is the unknown.



At least you know you will be skiing. I don't know how I will be getting from Binghamton to a mountain this weekend since I won't have access to my car. 


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 19, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> If this hits try Jack Frost. Usually short lines anyway and probably has *the only legitimate gladed terrain in PA.*



Furreals?   Never been to Jack Frost, and didn't know there were glades anywhere in e.PA.


EDIT:  Though even if they get 20", that probably wouldn't be enough to ski trees as it would be 28" natural for the season.


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## yeggous (Jan 19, 2016)

I'm not getting excited. All signs are for no real snow where we need it. It'll be wasted in the mid-Atlantic and southern New England with a sharp cutoff.


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## Not Sure (Jan 19, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> Bear Creek was my home "mountain" when I was a kid! The woods skier's left of Timberline can be quite fun on the very rare occasions there's enough snow. There's an annoying hike back up though. We used to nickname them the "back bowls" of Bear Creek.



Mine also in the 70's ,my side country used to be where E lift is now . Lots of good memories
The old owners would shake their heads if they saw the size of the jumps they have !


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 19, 2016)

yeggous said:


> I'm not getting excited. All signs are for no real snow where we need it. It'll be wasted in the mid-Atlantic and southern New England with a sharp cutoff.



Your NIMBY attitude is very NIMBY.


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## jimk (Jan 19, 2016)

About two weeks ago I committed to a three day ski trip to Canaan Valley, WV this weekend.  Fingers crossed that I get snowbound for about a five day trip;-)

As you know, we've had a very slow start down here.  This could make up for a multitude of sins by Mother Nature.


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## JDMRoma (Jan 19, 2016)

yeggous said:


> I'm not getting excited. All signs are for no real snow where we need it. It'll be wasted in the mid-Atlantic and southern New England with a sharp cutoff.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



+1 !!

Not helping NH at all = Blows !!


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## WJenness (Jan 19, 2016)

I'd rather a more northern storm track, but at this point, I am so happy to see us discussing SOMETHING (other than inferior precip. types, warmth, and high pressure) on this weather forum!


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 19, 2016)

The operational Euro run that just came out made a BIG southern shift that would crush the hopes and dreams of the Poconos.  Hopefully it's an outlier run and the ensemble suite that comes out in an hour is in place to the north.  Still a massively impressive storm on the Euro, laying down > 40" in parts of Virginia!!!


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## Rowsdower (Jan 19, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Furreals?   Never been to Jack Frost, and didn't know there were glades anywhere in e.PA.
> 
> 
> EDIT:  Though even if they get 20", that probably wouldn't be enough to ski trees as it would be 28" natural for the season.



It's been a few years since I was there. Somewhere on the east side of the mountain there are maintained glades. They also thinned out the trees and removed underbrush between two of the blues. So, not the most exciting, but hey, you have to take what you can get around these parts. 

Bring some rock skis and check it out.


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## mlctvt (Jan 19, 2016)

Most models runs today have moved the storm south, like very south. DC and south! Of course that could change.


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## fcksummer (Jan 19, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> It's been a few years since I was there. Somewhere on the east side of the mountain there are maintained glades. They also thinned out the trees and removed underbrush between two of the blues. So, not the most exciting, but hey, you have to take what you can get around these parts.
> 
> Bring some rock skis and check it out.




Those are so low angle it'll be tough to get anywhere if they get as much as predicted.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 19, 2016)

fcksummer said:


> Those are so low angle it'll be tough to get anywhere if they get as much as predicted.



Oh I know. Maybe over on the east side its steep enough. I'm just thinking of where's the best place in PA to get to if we did get this storm. Maybe Elk, if the Catskills get nothing?


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## fcksummer (Jan 19, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> Oh I know. Maybe over on the east side its steep enough. I'm just thinking of where's the best place in PA to get to if we did get this storm. Maybe Elk, if the Catskills get nothing?



Those slow lifts always drove me crazy when I lived down there. Decent terrain for PA but I always ended up frustrated with how little time I spent on the hill. I'd do Blue or Camelback with the edge to Camelback for terrain better suited for fresh snow.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 19, 2016)

fcksummer said:


> I'd do Blue or Camelback with the edge to Camelback for terrain better suited for fresh snow.



I think Blue and Camelback are the better of the Pocono options for sure, funny thing though, on the (very) rare times when I so ski the Poconos, I tend to ski Shawnee simply due to crowd avoidance.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 19, 2016)

fcksummer said:


> Those slow lifts always drove me crazy when I lived down there. Decent terrain for PA but I always ended up frustrated with how little time I spent on the hill. I'd do Blue or Camelback with the edge to Camelback for terrain better suited for fresh snow.



Depends though. Blue and Camelback will almost always be more crowded than Jack Frost. I've never tried the trees at Camelback, even when they had the snow. Always worried about getting yelled at.


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## vermonter44 (Jan 19, 2016)

I like jack frost, despite being a little smaller, the trees are a nice bonus after skiing short groomed runs. They also have some steeper, but short stuff all the way in the skiers right of the mountain. And there are some fun sections of trees hear and there. 

Jack Frost is basically my home mountain when I can't get to new england


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## Not Sure (Jan 19, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> Depends though. Blue and Camelback will almost always be more crowded than Jack Frost. I've never tried the trees at Camelback, even when they had the snow. Always worried about getting yelled at.



What about Montage? , never skied there but the trails are pretty wide so if you get there early and maybe a shot at some untracked? Don't know if they have any glades.


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## jimk (Jan 19, 2016)

The problem with the little mid-Atlantic ski areas is they groom fresh snow the second it falls.  There are only a few places like Plattekill (not exactly mid-Atlantic), Blue Knob PA, Timberline WV that have extensive glades and leave them alone on the rare occasions they get deep natural.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 19, 2016)

The first bits should make landfall tonight, so fingers crossed for a northern bump.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 19, 2016)

jimk said:


> The problem with the little mid-Atlantic ski areas is they groom fresh snow the second it falls.  There are only a few places like Plattekill (not exactly mid-Atlantic), Blue Knob PA, Timberline WV that have extensive glades and leave them alone on the rare occasions they get deep natural.



It's why I'd go with Frost. They can't groom gladed terrain and Jack Frost does thin the trees between and along some of their runs. I don't think any other PA resorts do this. Maybe Blue Knob? I've never been out there though.

That being said, if this shifts south who am I meeting at the Wissahickon Ski Club?


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## vermonter44 (Jan 19, 2016)

Skiing at Wissahickon sounds like a blast, bike there all the time


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 19, 2016)

00z GFS schizophrenic as usual, brings snows back north.  Good dumping in the Poconos.   Canadian is running as we speak, and it's a pretty good hit too.

Hopefully the 00z Euro goes north too, which will make everyone feel better.


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## 4aprice (Jan 20, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> Depends though. Blue and Camelback will almost always be more crowded than Jack Frost. I've never tried the trees at Camelback, even when they had the snow. Always worried about getting yelled at.



No real woods skiing at Camelback.  I know a few little spots to get snippets of powder but unless there is a ton of snow I would stay out (ie too many booby traps).  Some locals know the way down the old Pocono ski area but I've never gone and never will.  With the exception of Plattekill (which I haven't been to in a looong time)in a good winter, I wouldn't go into the woods south of Vermont.  Frost's and Blue's are ok pitch wise but short, for me not worth the extra drive time to either.

Alex 

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Tin (Jan 20, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> 00z GFS schizophrenic as usual, brings snows back north.  Good dumping in the Poconos.   Canadian is running as we speak, and it's a pretty good hit too.
> 
> Hopefully the 00z Euro goes north too, which will make everyone feel better.



Trending north. Hoping for some Berkshire East love.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 20, 2016)

4aprice said:


> No real woods skiing at Camelback.  I know a few little spots to get snippets of powder but unless there is a ton of snow I would stay out (ie too many booby traps).  Some locals know the way down the old Pocono ski area but I've never gone and never will.  With the exception of Plattekill (which I haven't been to in a looong time)in a good winter, I wouldn't go into the woods south of Vermont.  Frost's and Blue's are ok pitch wise but short, for me not worth the extra drive time to either.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



I've always thought the woods skier's left of Cliffhanger looked promising, personally. 

I think the issue for me is just, if the snow is falling in the Poconos, and that's whats local to me, you just make the best of what you have.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2016)




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## j law (Jan 20, 2016)

Any thoughts on when the snow starts falling in NYC vs Pocono's?


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2016)

j law said:


> Any thoughts on when the snow starts falling in NYC vs Pocono's?




Verbatim to the 12z GFS which came out in the last 20 minutes, starts in both roughly the same time, call it 1am on Saturday.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2016)

You can see from the pics, the 12z GFS and Canuck op runs have both really dialed back the snow fairly dramatically.


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## j law (Jan 20, 2016)

Can you send pics of the maps if you have time?  Thanks!!!


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2016)

j law said:


> Can you send pics of the maps if you have time?  Thanks!!!



I've been updating them in the OP after each run.

But here's the 12z GFS snowmap ensemble closeup of the area since you're local.


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## moresnow (Jan 20, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> I've been updating them in the OP after each run.
> 
> But here's the 12z GFS snowmap ensemble closeup of the area since you're local.



Campgaw wins this weekend! 

Great.:banghead:


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## NYDB (Jan 20, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


>



W VA and No Va getting polio snow?


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## dlague (Jan 20, 2016)

I fixed the map


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2016)

Look at how TIGHT the gradients are to the Poconos on all 3 updated 12z models.

Could it happen yet again?  Could the Poconos get completely screwed?  

I mean, even if they end up with 5" or 6", it's almost a consolation prize when areas right near you are getting 15" or 16".


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## Bene288 (Jan 20, 2016)

Damn, was hoping for a Berkshire East day.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 20, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Look at how TIGHT the gradients are to the Poconos on all 3 updated 12z models.
> 
> Could it happen yet again?  Could the Poconos get completely screwed?
> 
> I mean, even if they end up with 5" or 6", it's almost a consolation prize when areas right near you are getting 15" or 16".



Bear Creek, honorary Pocono mountain for the weekend?


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## vermonter44 (Jan 20, 2016)

With that much snow, bear creek would be nearly un-skiable with the runout.....


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## abc (Jan 20, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> I mean, even if they end up with 5" or 6", it's almost a consolation prize when areas right near you are getting 15" or 16".


Why not go to places with 15-16" if it's near?


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2016)

abc said:


> Why not go to places with 15-16" if it's near?



Because they don't have a ski area.


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## JDMRoma (Jan 20, 2016)

dlague said:


> I fixed the map
> 
> View attachment 18674



Basically sums it up ! Thanks Dave !


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## hammer (Jan 20, 2016)

Realize that this is entirely selfish, but if central and northern NE don't get the goods then I hope it shifts more to the south.  This system is screwing with plans to get my daughter back to school in RI over this weekend. :-x


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## Tin (Jan 20, 2016)

Remember 1996!


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## fcksummer (Jan 20, 2016)

hammer said:


> Realize that this is entirely selfish, but if central and northern NE don't get the goods then I hope it shifts more to the south.  This system is screwing with plans to get my daughter back to school in RI over this weekend. :-x



I agree. I hope it goes as south as possible at this point.


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## abc (Jan 20, 2016)

hammer said:


> Realize that this is entirely selfish, but if central and northern NE don't get the goods then I hope it shifts more to the south.  This system is screwing with plans to get my daughter back to school in RI over this weekend. :-x


The storm will be done by Sunday morning. So why wish the worst for those in the mid-Atlantic anyway? They need it just as much as you guys do.


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## Not Sure (Jan 20, 2016)

vermonter44 said:


> With that much snow, bear creek would be nearly un-skiable with the runout.....



Was there March last season after a good 13" dump the woods were fun but there was a base . It was straight down for a few hours till it got skied in .Was scoping out the woods on Monday , some jagged ugly rocks to hit , Stumps and a 6" waterline that would be lurking .  

Have some BC runs in the  Poconos  that will be in play with 12"


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## ss20 (Jan 20, 2016)

18z GFS not looking healthy for ski country at all.  Depicted no significant snow north of I-84.


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## Tin (Jan 20, 2016)

ss20 said:


> 18z GFS not looking healthy for ski country at all.  Depicted no significant snow north of I-84.



I still say it comes 60-70 miles further north and puts 8-12" in the Berks.


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## Bene288 (Jan 20, 2016)

Tin said:


> I still say it comes 60-70 miles further north and puts 8-12" in the Berks.



Good optimism. You were there for the powder day last Feb, right? Hoping to relive that some time this season.


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## Tin (Jan 20, 2016)

Bene288 said:


> Good optimism. You were there for the powder day last Feb, right? Hoping to relive that some time this season.



Oh yes. Was an amazing day. Not sure even 12" will open liftline or really help the tree situation.

Hume would slap me but looking at history these big ones trend north within 72 hours or so. Not to mention the baroclinic zone that has messed with models previously making things shift. Watch things go wild in the next 24 hours in terms of forecast changes.


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## Bene288 (Jan 20, 2016)

Tin said:


> Oh yes. Was an amazing day. Not sure even 12" will open liftline or really help the tree situation.



My thoughts too. Those are trees you really don't want to ski in thin cover. At least the ones I was in, anyway.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2016)

18z GFS ensemble way worse than 18z GFS.  Crushes Pocono skiers hopes and dreams.   I left both depictions up.   It's pretty much the same as the prior run, but the qpf doesnt expand northward.    Lets hope that's not the solution.


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## Tin (Jan 20, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> 18z GFS ensemble way worse than 18z GFS.  Crushes Pocono skiers hopes and dreams.   I left both depictions up.   It's pretty much the same as the prior run, but the qpf doesnt expand northward.    Lets hope that's not the solution.



Don't even bother posting or discussing it anymore. I think it has shown how useless and all over the place it can be. Time to get into RGEM, NAM (yes, I said it. Was good with last weekend within 72 hours), and others. It needs another million dollar tune up.


I'm just going to look at models that favor us. That way I have a reason to drink more this weekend...


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## Rowsdower (Jan 20, 2016)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Have some BC runs in the  Poconos  that will be in play with 12"



Needs a base though. There's zero right now.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2016)

Tin said:


> Don't even bother posting or discussing it anymore.* I think it has shown how useless and all over the place it can be*. Time to get into RGEM, NAM (yes, I said it. Was good with last weekend within 72 hours), and others. *It needs another million dollar tune up.*



The Canuck has been the most stubborn with this storm, even the Euro has flip-flopped a bit, but they all have the same general idea in that n.VA and MD get absolutely crushed, and s.PA and s.NJ get a decent snow.  Where it gets hairy is the super sharp cutoff of snow once you get above c.NJ, which obviously isn't good for the Pocono chain.   Just a slight northern shift, and places like Blue and Shawnee could get a heavy amount.  Fingers crossed.

The NWS is sending up balloons right now, which as you probably know they only do in "special" situations, so the 00z GFS theoretically should have better than normal data tonight. 

As for the "another million dollar tuneup" - they just spent millions more on it recently. :x


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2016)

First guess mappages are starting to roll in.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2016)

00z NAM just went WAY, WAY north, made the jackpot zone WAY, WAY bigger, and is a snowlovers wet dream.  

Sadly it's the NAM, but still, this this is some dirty snow porn to feast your eyes on.  Looks like roughly 22" in the Poconos I'd guess?


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## deadheadskier (Jan 20, 2016)

So it sounds like you're still very confident Lucy won't pull the football


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> So it sounds like you're still very confident Lucy won't pull the football



Sadly, it's the NAM, so clown-shoes snow amounts are expected.  The important thing IMO, is that it's sensing a northern shift.  The Poconos desperately needs that northern shift to not get screwed.  We should know more about the football after tonight's model runs.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 20, 2016)

Blue Mountain, then?


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## ss20 (Jan 20, 2016)

Ever so slight tick north on the 0Z GFS.  Brings snow perhaps 10 miles more north?  

Virginia and Maryland will be shutdown for the weekend.  Anyone know where to put Maryland's entire annual snowfall, but in a 72 hour period?


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## Tin (Jan 20, 2016)

GFS has come further north. All 0z models have ticked north thus far. Best we could have hoped for is the start of the north trend. 
   :beer:


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> Blue Mountain, then?



The 00z GFS brings the NAM back to reality (as you'd expect), prints more like 6" or 7" throughout the Pokes.  Still DANGEROUSLY close to the "screwed" line though.  Really this GFS isnt that much different from the last few.

EDIT:  Canuck is running now.


----------



## Tin (Jan 20, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Really this GFS isnt that much different from the last few.
> 
> EDIT:  Canuck is running now.



It follows the others in coming north though along with the western system being weaker and hitting, not busting, the ridge in the west. Just a few miles at a time for New England, it would also spare Jersey from absolute surge horror again.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2016)

Tin said:


> It follows the others in coming north



Canuck isnt done, but it's going to come north too.

   Somewhat NAM-like, but without the clown-shoes snow totals.  Also puts the Poconos dancing on a fault-line between getting about 9" or getting about 2".


----------



## Tin (Jan 20, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Canuck isnt done, but it's going to come north too.
> 
> Somewhat NAM-like, but without the clown-shoes snow totals.  Also puts the Poconos dancing on a fault-line between getting about 9" or getting about 2".


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 20, 2016)

Similar deal with the CMC.  

You go from a nice 18" in Easton, PA to about 5" at Shawnee and Camelback, even thought that's probably only about 20 or so miles as the crow flies!


----------



## yeggous (Jan 21, 2016)

I still don't understand why we are discussing a mid-Atlantic storm on a northeast forum.


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----------



## deadheadskier (Jan 21, 2016)

It's pretty humorous how much play the storm is getting in the Globe


----------



## abc (Jan 21, 2016)

yeggous said:


> I still don't understand why we are discussing a mid-Atlantic storm on a northeast forum.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



This is the WEATHER forum!


----------



## gmcunni (Jan 21, 2016)

abc said:


> This is the WEATHER forum!



Northeast Weather Forum


----------



## JDMRoma (Jan 21, 2016)

gmcunni said:


> Northeast Weather Forum



This thread should be moved to the
MID ATLANTIC Weather form .... Just sayn. 


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----------



## Not Sure (Jan 21, 2016)

JDMRoma said:


> This thread should be moved to the
> MID ATLANTIC Weather form .... Just sayn.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Haha , and if the storm turns North at the last minute ,do we change it back again ?

Ok what is official border ? I thought Pa. was in the Northeast ?


----------



## Smellytele (Jan 21, 2016)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Haha , and if the storm turns North at the last minute ,do we change it back again ?
> 
> Ok what is official border ? I thought Pa. was in the Northeast ?



Whole discussion thread on what is northeast and what is midatlantic on the regular forum


----------



## Not Sure (Jan 21, 2016)

Smellytele said:


> Whole discussion thread on what is northeast and what is midatlantic on the regular forum



Yep , found it . I say let Nick draw the borders it's his Site.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2016)

yeggous said:


> I still don't understand why we are discussing a mid-Atlantic storm on a northeast forum.





JDMRoma said:


> This thread should be moved to the
> MID ATLANTIC Weather form .... Just sayn.



WAAAHHHHHH!!!!!!!   My area isnt going to get the big snow...sniffles....WAHHHHH!!!!!  




deadheadskier said:


> It's pretty humorous how much play the storm is getting in the Globe



That is odd.  Driving hysteria to sell papers is the likely answer.  That said, there are models that do have this sliding NE in a direction that could tag Boston with a decent snow, but if they're spending a ton of time on it, that is kindof silly.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2016)

As for model discussion, NAM held serve and hits the Pokes with 12" to 15", too bad it's the NAM, but at least it stubbornly refuses to go south.  GFS is running now.....


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2016)

GFS continues to want to build a snow fence literally right on top of all the ski resorts.   From 1" to > 16" in only 40 miles.

This solution would be heartbreaking for area skiers, yet so very incredibly Poconos.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Jan 21, 2016)

Any hills around DC to ski on? :-o
Who's going to poach the steps of the Capital?

Upon Google Earth examination, Rock Creek Park, just north of downtown DC looks to have some potential.


----------



## jimk (Jan 21, 2016)

from_the_NEK said:


> Any hills around DC to ski on? :-o
> Who's going to poach the steps of the Capital?
> 
> Upon Google Earth examination, Rock Creek Park, just north of downtown DC looks to have some potential.



There are some fairly big hills around Washington DC, mostly related to ravines and drains leading to the Potomac River.  In the 1970's I used to run Cross Country races in HS and college at Battery Kimball Park in Northwest DC, which some evil track coach sadistically selected as a race venue because it was quite hilly:
http://byt.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/BYTSleddingWipeout.gif

I'm committed to a three night trip to ski in West Virginia, departing later this afternoon.  May only get about a foot there, whereas Virginia ski areas closer to DC like Bryce, Massanutten and Wintergreen may get a two foot dump.   In WV they have glade skiing.  Those could be tricky this weekend because it will be a foot of powder over bare ground/stumps/logs.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2016)

jimk said:


> I'm committed to a three night trip to ski in West Virginia, departing later this afternoon.  May only get about a foot there, whereas Virginia ski areas closer to DC like Bryce, Massanutten and Wintergreen may get a two foot dump.   In WV they have glade skiing.  Those could be tricky this weekend because it will be a foot of powder over bare ground/stumps/logs.



I've never skied in WV because from my place to there is the same as going to n.VT, but it looks pretty cool.  Keep in mind the 12" you're seeing on the maps is the default ratio, so you should get at least 15" anyway if the modeling is correct.  Sounds like a good time.


----------



## WJenness (Jan 21, 2016)

I just wanted to go on the record to say that I appreciate the discussion of this storm, even if it isn't in my neck of the woods.

I wish it was hitting somewhere I could ski, but it isn't, and I still appreciate reading about the storm.

Thanks for the discussion, all.


----------



## ScottySkis (Jan 21, 2016)

Does it like Platty in Catskills will get even few inches from this?

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## Not Sure (Jan 21, 2016)

ScottySkis said:


> Does it like Platty in Catskills will get even few inches from this?
> 
> Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk



Not looking good.


----------



## abc (Jan 21, 2016)

Question for me is any hills in coastal CT to keep an eye on?


----------



## from_the_NEK (Jan 21, 2016)

Consider this...
Areas near Washington DC may pick up 24"+ (35" if you believe the clown shoes totals predicted by the NAM) of snow from this storm. Burke Mtn in northern Vermont is reporting a total snowfall of 31" for the year so far :-?. 

What is the deal with all of the upside down snow storms in recent years. Last year we were tortured by ridiculous snowfalls in southern New England while living in an ice box up here with barely enough snow to bother wearing snowshoes. WTH!!!!!


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2016)

18z NAM isnt quite done running, but while all the other models want to suppress this thing with an eastern track and dry air, the NAM wants to bust through like drunken Kool-Aid man and give a historic blizzard to about 8 or 9 states.  

  Too bad it's the NAM, but it's fantastic snow porn.

EDIT:  added drunken snow porn


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## Rowsdower (Jan 21, 2016)

I feel like we always get amped up for a big storm. The models spit out crazy numbers 2-3 days ahead of time. Then it fizzles. 

Anyone remember a storm in recent memory that wasn't predicted to be much then just dumped 2x as forecast?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> I feel like we always get amped up for a big storm. The models spit out crazy numbers 2-3 days ahead of time. Then it fizzles.  Anyone remember a storm in recent memory that wasn't predicted to be much then just dumped 2x as forecast?



Sometimes it can be a zero sum game.  I remember a few years ago there was a massive storm that was printing 20" to 30" inches where I live in New Jersey, and those sums did verify......... in Long Island and Connecticut.


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## JDMRoma (Jan 21, 2016)

from_the_NEK said:


> What is the deal with all of the upside down snow storms in recent years. Last year we were tortured by ridiculous snowfalls in southern New England while living in an ice box up here with barely enough snow to bother wearing snowshoes. WTH!!!!!



Exactly ! Just like last year !

2 inches in the White Mountains and 2 feet at the mass border. 




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## abc (Jan 21, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Sometimes it can be a zero sum game.  I remember a few years ago there was a massive storm that was printing 20" to 30" inches where I live in New Jersey, and those sums did verify......... in Long Island and Connecticut.


^^^^ That!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2016)

18z GFS looks much, much, much better than it's last 3 or 4 runs!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2016)

More predictions rolling in.    If


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2016)

Good news too, the GFS ensemble (below) looked as good as the GFS, so the op run wasn't an outlier.   I'll be at Blue Mountain on Sunday if this verifies, probably 10" or 11" per model.


----------



## ss20 (Jan 21, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> More predictions rolling in.    If



I think Scotty might have made this map :smile:  12-18" for NYC and LI?  WTF?!

I still say points north of I-84 get no meaningful snow.  Still a few more model runs to go, though.


----------



## deadheadskier (Jan 21, 2016)

So, who from the Philly area is positioning themselves down by Wintergreen or Massanutten?   There's a fair amount of forum members from the area.  

I want to see reports of you folks taking advantage of this potentially historic storm.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2016)

NAM run that's finishing shifts way north yet again.  Good news.  Cant wait to see the 00z GFS and 00z Canuck now.  Things have taken a dramatic turn for the better in the last 5 hours.


----------



## ss20 (Jan 21, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> NAM run that's finishing shifts way north yet again.  Good news.  Cant wait to see the 00z GFS and 00z Canuck now.  Things have taken a dramatic turn for the better in the last 5 hours.



Still...it's the nam.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 21, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Good news too, the GFS ensemble (below) looked as good as the GFS, so the op run wasn't an outlier.   I'll be at Blue Mountain on Sunday if this verifies, probably 10" or 11" per model.



If this pans out I'll be there too. Fingers crossed.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 21, 2016)

I be at Platty Sunday snow storm not I need Platty in my blood this winter.

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## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2016)

ScottySkis said:


> I be at Platty Sunday snow storm not *I need Platty in my blood this winter.*



Amen.  Cant wait to get up there, hopefully soon!

I almost feel irresponsible posting this, but the 00z NAM jumped so far north it would give Platty good snow.


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## WoodCore (Jan 21, 2016)

Giddy up!!!!!


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Still...it's the nam.



Tonight's NAM run had 7 dropsondes released into it, so theoretically it should be more accurate.  And it's not just the 00z NAM that came north, the 18z GFS came north and so too have the last several SREF runs.    Hopefully it's a trend.


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## jimk (Jan 21, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> So, who from the Philly area is positioning themselves down by Wintergreen or Massanutten?   There's a fair amount of forum members from the area.
> 
> I want to see reports of you folks taking advantage of this potentially historic storm.



I am currently at Canaan Valley Lodge, WV.  They got about 4" last night.  Calling for 4-8' tomorrow afternoon and 11-17" more Fri night into Saturday.  I'll post some photos when it gets good.  I'm scheduled to head home to DC area on Sunday afternoon unless the roads are closed.  Bring it on, just don't kill the power lines to the chair lifts!


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## Rowsdower (Jan 21, 2016)

The NAM is hitting the pipe again.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2016)

After favorable GFS, SREF, and NAM runs, the RGEM does completely the opposite direction. lol.  Granted there's about 7 hours of "missing" nowfall here over PA/NJ, but it probably wouldnt get the Pokes above 7".


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## abc (Jan 21, 2016)

jimk said:


> Bring it on, just don't kill the power lines to the chair lifts!


Have some snowshoes ready


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2016)

And the 00z GFS crushes hopes and dreams, awful run.   I sure wouldn't want to be a met and have to forecast this for Philly or NYC.

EDIT:   These are two American 00z models, both showing absurdly different solutions.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 21, 2016)

Regardless I still think Blue will be the best bet.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> Regardless I still think Blue will be the best bet.



If the storm does hit, no doubt Blue Mountain is the clear winner.

If the storm doesn't hit, hunting in the morning and then watching the AFC Championship is the best bet.

EDIT: GFS & Canadian ensembles look a bit better than op, but nothing terribly sexy. Blue might get 6" or 7" if it verified.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

Gradients modeled are crazy.  Cherry Hill, NJ on the 06z GFS is 2 FEET of snow, but 70 miles north as the crow flies is a dusting.  This is a nowcasting situation where you just hope in comes north to get lucky.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

Mappage predictions, because we all love those....


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

NAM model still showing a solution off by literally hundreds of miles.  When  the NAM busts hard on this storm, it's going to be a MAJOR embarrassment  that the US governments SHORT RANGE model was beaten by literally every  global LONG RANGE model, on a storm that's < 12 hours from our doorstep.    [/rant  off]


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

More MAPPAGE!!!!!!!   Cant wait for the flakes tonight!


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## Not Sure (Jan 22, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> Regardless I still think Blue will be the best bet.



Blue , Sunday , First real snow , LINES


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

12z GFS goes NORTH!!!!!!

To my eye, that looks like 8" to 10" for Blue Mountain, but the huge snow totals are knocking on the door and only require another 20 mile shift.






Versus GFS ensembles that just finished.  OP is a juicy outlier, but ensembles still about 7" to 9" for Blue Mountain.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

Final Call from Bastardi's kid


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## andrec10 (Jan 22, 2016)

It keeps shifting farther north! Keep it coming!


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## WJenness (Jan 22, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Final Call from Bastardi's kid



Looks like Yawgoo might get a decent day out of this after all...
Any more and you couldn't ski there anyway (too flat).


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## jimk (Jan 22, 2016)

jimk said:


> I am currently at Canaan Valley Lodge, WV.  They got about 4" last night.  Calling for 4-8' tomorrow afternoon and 11-17" more Fri night into Saturday.  I'll post some photos when it gets good.  I'm scheduled to head home to DC area on Sunday afternoon unless the roads are closed.  Bring it on, just don't kill the power lines to the chair lifts!



i'LL start separate thread later, but here's some quick photos and info from this AM in WV, got to get back to the hill now.  Dumping underway:
http://www.dcski.com/forum/86087&scrollto=86087


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## Tin (Jan 22, 2016)

Blue Hill and Yawgoo mauler. Going to keep coming north.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 22, 2016)

Who is at Blue Mountain Sunday?


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

Euro makes another slight northward move!

All we need is another 20 miles north and the Poconos gets 12" for sure.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

MOAR mappage guesses.


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## JDMRoma (Jan 22, 2016)

OMG BG is having a post gasm !!


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## dlague (Jan 22, 2016)

Here is the official report from NH


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## Bene288 (Jan 22, 2016)

So Blue Mt will make out it looks like? Have family in NJ and thinking of traveling down in the 4x4 tomorrow to ski Sunday. I'm guessing even with 12" skiing the trees wouldn't be advisable given the base?


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## Tin (Jan 22, 2016)

Really hoping the NAM and others are on it. NWS Boston is upping advisories and warnings for southern New England...Maybe? Just maybe?

This could be quite the shocker of a system...


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## Rowsdower (Jan 22, 2016)

Bene288 said:


> So Blue Mt will make out it looks like? Have family in NJ and thinking of traveling down in the 4x4 tomorrow to ski Sunday. I'm guessing even with 12" skiing the trees wouldn't be advisable given the base?



There is literally zero base so I wouldn't advise it. Blue does have a small maintained gladed area, so maybe that will be in play.


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## abc (Jan 22, 2016)

Tin said:


> Really hoping the NAM and others are on it. NWS Boston is upping advisories and warnings for southern New England...Maybe? Just maybe?
> 
> This could be quite the shocker of a system...


It maybe my wishful thinking. But it seems the storm is coming up earlier than predicted. (I'm in my office in NYC. Prediction is for snow to start after mid-night. But from the map, it looks like it may start in the next couple of hours!) 

Perhaps that's confirming a more northerly trend than the prediction?


----------



## Not Sure (Jan 22, 2016)

abc said:


> It maybe my wishful thinking. But it seems the storm is coming up earlier than predicted. (I'm in my office in NYC. Prediction is for snow to start after mid-night. But from the map, it looks like it may start in the next couple of hours!)
> 
> Perhaps that's confirming a more northerly trend than the prediction?



Lots of Virga , Not Sowing here in Pa. yet but radar seeing snow. Falling through very dry air and evaporating.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

18z GFS Ensemble comes in verbatim with 10" for Shawnee and Camelscrack, and 12" for Blue Mountain.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

FINAL CALL for EPAWA


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

This is it.... our last model run before nowcasting begins....

18z Canuck Ensemble comes in verbatim with 7" for Shawnee and Camelscrack, and 9" for Blue Mountain.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)




----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

In prepping for "where to ski on Sunday", what's with this "6 hour lift ticket" BS at Blue Mountain? 

 Is there anyway around that or a way to buy an 8am - 4pm (i.e. like every other known ski resort on planet earth) lift ticket.  If not I may go to Camelback or Shawnee if the difference is only going to be the 2" predicted.


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## Bene288 (Jan 22, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> In prepping for "where to ski on Sunday", what's with this "6 hour lift ticket" BS at Blue Mountain?
> 
> Is there anyway around that or a way to buy an 8am - 4pm (i.e. like every other known ski resort on planet earth) lift ticket.  If not I may go to Camelback or Shawnee if the difference is only going to be the 2" predicted.



I saw that too. Nonsense.


----------



## jrmagic (Jan 22, 2016)

abc said:


> It maybe my wishful thinking. But it seems the storm is coming up earlier than predicted. (I'm in my office in NYC. Prediction is for snow to start after mid-night. But from the map, it looks like it may start in the next couple of hours!)
> 
> Perhaps that's confirming a more northerly trend than the prediction?



I sure hope it comes early. I'm working in Westchester and trying to convince the restaurant I work at that Noone will come tomorrow so that I can head north ton it instead of tomorrow afternoon when she calls to tell me they will be closed:banghead:

At least if it starts before we close today I have a chance that she will see the light


----------



## Rowsdower (Jan 22, 2016)

Toss up between Blue, Camelback, and Jack Frost for me.


----------



## vermonter44 (Jan 22, 2016)

I think I may be heading to jack frost on Sunday


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

00z NAM just went snowgasmic.  

NAM often way overdoes snowfall, but the good news is the track is more north = more snow for all, regardless of eventual totals.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Jan 22, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> 00z NAM just went snowgasmic.
> 
> NAM often way overdoes snowfall, but the good news is the track is more north = more snow for all, regardless of eventual totals.



The NAM may be an idiot, but it may have scored a coup with the north trend. Slash those totals by 1/3 and the NAM is sitting pretty.


----------



## Bene288 (Jan 22, 2016)

Will travel bans be an issue down there ?


----------



## Not Sure (Jan 22, 2016)

Bene288 said:


> Will travel bans be an issue down there ?



Probably not North of Rt 78

Edit 2" so far  Sothern Lehigh Co.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

Boston Bulldog said:


> The NAM may be an idiot, but it may have scored a coup with the north trend. *Slash those totals by 1/3 and the NAM is sitting pretty.*



Even if you slash it in half it looks like 11" at Shawnee/Camleback & maybe 18" at Blue Mountain.  

Rare Pocono powder-day looks to be close to a reality.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

Joestradamus just upped his snow forecast.  He's onboard with a Pocono Power-day.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

EPAWA increases totals too......


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Jan 22, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Even if you slash it in half it looks like 11" at Shawnee/Camleback & maybe 18" at Blue Mountain.
> 
> Rare Pocono powder-day looks to be close to a reality.



This is your storm man! Congrats! You've been pining for a Pocono's jackpot and it will be stunning if Lucy pulls the football somehow.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)




----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

Boston Bulldog said:


> This is your storm man! Congrats! You've been pining for a Pocono's jackpot and it will be stunning if Lucy pulls the football somehow.


----------



## Rowsdower (Jan 22, 2016)

mother-of-god-super-troopers by DiscoWeasel, on Flickr

I'm probably looking at Blue on Sunday. Straight shot up the turnpike. Hopefully Penndot has it cleared off decently by then.


----------



## Not Sure (Jan 22, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> EPAWA increases totals too......



Ha ha , Last , Last call. 
Colder than expected causing higher totals too?


----------



## Rowsdower (Jan 22, 2016)

23 degrees currently in Bucks County. Already have a good 1-2 inches on the ground and the snow wasn't supposed to start until midnight.


----------



## vermonter44 (Jan 22, 2016)

3-4 already on the ground in South Jersey. Looks like we're going to be getting a little more than predicted


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2016)

The 00z GFS ensemble just completed and puts 13" on Camelback & Shawnee and 15" on Blue Mountain.  

I realize short-range models are supposed to be what you use in this timeframe rather than the GFS etc..., but they short-range products are all predicting so much snow that psychologically I dont know if I can trust them. lol


----------



## from_the_NEK (Jan 22, 2016)

vermonter44 said:


> 3-4 already on the ground in South Jersey. Looks like we're going to be getting a little more than predicted


Cool, you have already matched the snow depth in my yard here in N Vermont. Have fun with all that snow. Yeah, I'm bitter :beer:


----------



## Not Sure (Jan 22, 2016)

From the weather link on this site 
Dis is Nuts !


----------



## vermonter44 (Jan 23, 2016)

from_the_NEK said:


> Cool, you have already matched the snow depth in my yard here in N Vermont. Have fun with all that snow. Yeah, I'm bitter :beer:



I wish I could send it on up there. You guys need it way more than us...


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> 23 degrees currently in Bucks County.



It's 23 degrees across the river from you too.  Those maps are 10:1 ratios, but this makes me wonder is something like 15:1 will be needed as it's several degrees colder right now than thought, and you can see how that could dramatically alter things.  Maybe it will change, but the snow was supposed to be heavy and wet, and what I'm getting right now is straight up powder.


----------



## jrmagic (Jan 23, 2016)

Go figure with this storm the flatlands will have higher seasonal totals than most of NE ski country. At least it's moved enough where I told the restaurant owner that I'm not gonna be there tomorrow and neither should they. Too bad I will be skiing groomers instead of pow but it beats work!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2016)

Up to watch the Hahnenkamm...... three hours ago this revision was made by a good met from VA.  Hopefully it's wrong, because it's a little too close for comfort.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2016)

FWIW, NAM not backing off with its' mayhem and chaos blizzard numbers.......


----------



## Not Sure (Jan 23, 2016)

This is starting to look like one of those be careful what you wish for scenarios , 30'' and I'm stuck for days!
Been 19f  all night and now the winds are 25 G 38 mph. !!@#$%((&%%

I have a 300 vert behind my house that I've hiked a couple times , I nick named it the "Cruel Shoes" run . Never done it because it's stickers , rocks,boulders, huge falls. might be doable with 30'' .


----------



## ss20 (Jan 23, 2016)

The strangest thing with this storm...the NAM had the pronounced northern shift correct LONG before the other models.


----------



## vermonter44 (Jan 23, 2016)

Looking like about 10-12 inches here in South Jersey now


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2016)

I'm in this area that just got upgraded to potential 30 inches!


----------



## vermonter44 (Jan 23, 2016)

Wow..... That's crazy....


----------



## Rowsdower (Jan 23, 2016)

Well... gonna shovel off the first foot of snow here in Bucks Co. 

Actually starting to worry the roads won't be cleared by tomorrow.


----------



## deadheadskier (Jan 23, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'm in this area that just got upgraded to potential 30 inches!



30" of snow in south Jersey is about as useful as seeing the hottest woman you've ever seen in your life at a strip club.  

Glad you Poconos skiers get a treat, but this storm is a real kick between the legs for the rest of us.


----------



## fcksummer (Jan 23, 2016)

Anyone have eyes on Lucy? Will she check into game for a last minute audible?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2016)

fcksummer said:


> *Anyone have eyes on Lucy? Will she check into game for a last minute audible?*



Lucy is FOR ONCE not going to pull the ball away from the Pocono Mountains.

NWS now thinks the heavy snows will reach farther west from intense banding. 

 They just issued this update a few minutes ago!!!!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2016)

Looking at that map, it looks to my eye like Blue Mountain is right on top of the 24" line.  

 Does anyone here know the last time Blue got tagged with a 2' storm?

EDIT:

Also, if "real life" worked out like that map, I'd call it 18" at Shawnee and 15" at Camelback.


----------



## Not Sure (Jan 23, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> Well... gonna shovel off the first foot of snow here in Bucks Co.
> 
> Actually starting to worry the roads won't be cleared by tomorrow.



WE'RE SCREWED!!!! only 10'' so far but the winds are 28 G 38!.....my driveway is downwind of my house . I just spent 2hrs 
clearing drifts . ADD 2 more ft.!!! I ventured out to the main road and it had been plowed but is drifted badly and un passable in places. 
Only a matter of time befrore the Governor steps in and declares an emergeny. 

Brother in law checked in from Manassas Va. 2' already


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## Not Sure (Jan 23, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Looking at that map, it looks to my eye like Blue Mountain is right on top of the 24" line.
> 
> Does anyone here know the last time Blue got tagged with a 2' storm?
> 
> ...



My best Guess would be 96


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## 4aprice (Jan 23, 2016)

fcksummer said:


> Anyone have eyes on Lucy? Will she check into game for a last minute audible?



It's really not going to matter whether she shows up or not.  Camelback already has 4-6 otg and its supposed to last till about midnight, so I would imagine 8-12 might be a good guess.  But the fact that they were able get 100% open before the first flake flew is more important to me.  I hope they pack it in good tonight because it might end up in Allentown if they don't.  The surfaces will be great tomorrow.  

We started out for the mountain at 5:30 this morning but turned around as 80 was pretty bad, and the winds were really picking up.  Not worth risking a fairly new vehicle for some powder and brutal wind conditions.   From the cams it looks like Sullivan is closed and they are running Bailey.  We have a bed waiting for us up there so we will go up later and get ready for what should be a pretty good Sunday.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2016)

Given how crappy PA maintains its' roads versus NJ, my only remaining fear will be can I GET to Blue Mountain tomorrow?


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## Rowsdower (Jan 23, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Given how crappy PA maintains its' roads versus NJ, my only remaining fear will be can I GET to Blue Mountain tomorrow?



Same worry here. Just shoveled the Skizuki out of 18 inches and its still coming down. Took a drive around the block and over to Route 29. I wouldn't attempt the drive without AWD or 4x4 and took things very slow.

Hey, maybe the Delaware River cliffs are in play? Anyone know a good spot?


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## abc (Jan 23, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> Same worry here. Just shoveled the Skizuki out of 18 inches and its still coming down. Took a drive around the block and over to Route 29. I wouldn't attempt the drive without AWD or 4x4 and took things very slow.


I'm a wimp. 

Although I have AWD, I only have all-season on it. Last time I was caught by 6" on UN-PLOWED side streets, it was pretty hairy. So, even though I'm only 20 miles from a local bump which is probably getting quite a few inches by now, I can't decide whether to go out or not. (I'm in upper Westchester, even with the latest revised prediction, we're only expecting half to a foot). 

Problem is my house is on top of a big hill. And while I can see the plow working on the road BEHIND my house (halfway down that big hill), they haven't come around even ONCE to plow the street my garage is at.


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## Tin (Jan 23, 2016)

So how about that NAM?


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## deadheadskier (Jan 23, 2016)

This isn't NAM. There are rules


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## Tin (Jan 23, 2016)

abc said:


> I'm a wimp.
> 
> Although I have AWD, I only have all-season on it. Last time I was caught by 6" on UN-PLOWED side streets, it was pretty hairy. So, even though I'm only 20 miles from a local bump which is probably getting quite a few inches by now, I can't decide whether to go out or not. (I'm in upper Westchester, even with the latest revised prediction, we're only expecting half to a foot).



Live to ski another day. Never worth risking it if you are unsure. If there is a crash, emergency services will have the same problems everyone else does in getting to the scene and getting help. You could always snowshoe there!


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## abc (Jan 23, 2016)

Tin said:


> You could always snowshoe there!


Or cross country ski

I almost wish I have my telemark bindings mounted...


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## Tin (Jan 23, 2016)

Watch a few youtube videos and go for it! What's the worst that could happen?


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## Not Sure (Jan 23, 2016)

[QUOTE

Problem is my house is on top of a big hill. [/QUOTE]

Put on your skis and go for it !


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## abc (Jan 23, 2016)

Big for wheels, not big enough for skis. 

(actually big enough for xc skis but not for downhill planks, besides, there's the pesky little problem of having to come back up)


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## Bene288 (Jan 23, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Given how crappy PA maintains its' roads versus NJ, my only remaining fear will be can I GET to Blue Mountain tomorrow?



Trying to figure that out too. Would be awesome to ski 2' of fresh snow.


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## j law (Jan 23, 2016)

With no snow in (real) ski country, it looks like Central Park is my best option... It's actually pretty fun when there is fresh snow!


Sent from my iPhone usin


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## Rowsdower (Jan 23, 2016)

It'll really depend how clear it is by tomorrow morning. Snow should end around midnight although the Lehigh Valley is getting hammered hard right now. If the turnpike is free and clear then I'll make a go it.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2016)

Oh my god....  I've never worked so hard to clear off maybe a 20' x 8' stripe in my life, but I knew if I have any chance of making it to the Poconos in the morning, I've gotta' dig out now, as more snow is on the way, and that alone just took an hour.  

I actually had to DIG OUT of my house before I could even go to free up the vehicles.  Didnt see that coming until I opened the door.

So I finish and go to get back inside?  3" of snow on the part of the path where I'd first started, so it's coming down about 3" and hour at the moment.   Must rest.....and calorie up...


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## Rowsdower (Jan 23, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Oh my god....  I've never worked so hard to clear off maybe a 20' x 8' stripe in my life, but I knew if I have any chance of making it to the Poconos in the morning, I've gotta' dig out now, as more snow is on the way, and that alone just took an hour.
> 
> I actually had to DIG OUT of my house before I could even go to free up the vehicles.  Didnt see that coming until I opened the door.
> 
> So I finish and go to get back inside?  3" of snow on the part of the path where I'd first started, so it's coming down about 3" and hour at the moment.   Must rest.....and calorie up...



There's 2-3 inches back where I cleared the car out but its tapering off now. The banding on this storm is ridiculous. It's snowing lightly here. Literally three or four miles away its an all out blizzard with heavy snows and 30mph winds. 

News said it would move back our way so I may have to do another clean off tonight.

Turnpike has a 45mph speed restriction and no commercial vehicles atm. We'll see how that improves overnight. 

Right now I've got a pot of borscht on the stove and I'm just waiting for Mother Nature to do her thing.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> The banding on this storm is ridiculous.



A very heavy band is about to hit the Poconos.  Do work storm!

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/philadelphia-pa/weather-radar-r1h?play=1


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## Rowsdower (Jan 23, 2016)

Letting me clean off my car and dumping 6-8 more inches on the Poconos would cash in all the accrued karma from the Poconos getting screwed. We'll not see this again for another twenty years.


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## 4aprice (Jan 23, 2016)

Snowing 2-3"/hr here in northwest Morris County.  If they are getting 1/2 this up there the skiing will be great.  Might go Monday too. Hope they let Uncle Bill's bump up.  That would be a great way to start the season.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Rowsdower (Jan 23, 2016)

Might call off work Monday. Blue tomorrow and Camelback Monday? Could be amazing.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2016)

I got an unofficial report on FB of 24" in Palmerton.  Tough to believe already, but I hope that's true.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 23, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> I got an unofficial report on FB of 24" in Palmerton.  Tough to believe already, but I hope that's true.



I believe it. Lehigh Valley Int. Airport reported 21.2 inches, and that was several hours ago.


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## gladerider (Jan 23, 2016)

i think i got 2 feet so far. i live just above rt 78 in NJ in summit. just came inside from shoveling. been out there since 1pm. snow i can't even ride on. what i waste.


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## Rowsdower (Jan 23, 2016)

Blue locals were getting their powder turns in today. Crazy. No way I'd consider driving long distance in this. But I suppose if you live close enough then you're in luck.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2016)

I just went out into a field to measure someplace level, and sunk it to 24" on the button.   

Dunno how sound my logic was given all the wind today, but it's the best I could think to do.  And we're still directly under mesoscale banding, so I think 28" at least will be the tally here.


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## Tin (Jan 23, 2016)

All hail king nam!


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## Not Sure (Jan 23, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> I believe it. Lehigh Valley Int. Airport reported 21.2 inches, and that was several hours ago.



ABE 31.7" Official new all time record . Still snowing !
I'm completely wiped out spent 5.5 hrs on the snowblower , have a very I'll family member I'm caring for . No plow guy for a long time . Not sure how local roads are now hoping for turns tomorrow !


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## Rowsdower (Jan 23, 2016)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> ABE 31.7" Official new all time record . Still snowing !
> I'm completely wiped out spent 5.5 hrs on the snowblower , have a very I'll family member I'm caring for . No plow guy for a long time . Not sure how local roads are now hoping for turns tomorrow !




I thought 2 feet was tough to dig out of. I can't imagine getting another foot on top and having to dig out again tomorrow morning. My parents live up near Bear Creek. Might have to get up there anyway to help them out if their plow guy doesn't get around to them. Dad had bypass surgery so no heavy work for him.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2016)

Called Blue Mountain to figure out how this save money reloading online crap works.....anyway...while doing that I asked for a snow update and she told me that last she heard "about two hours ago" it was 20", but that it's still snowing up there.  Radar loops do look like it's about to end real soon though, soo figure 21" to 23" is what they'll get.


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## Bene288 (Jan 23, 2016)

Just arrived in Jersey (Neptune Twp) from Albany. At least 2" + down here. The drive wouldn't have been doable without a good 4x4. And I mean a truck or something tall, clearance is the key, not just 4 wheel drive. Lots of Subies and SUVs off the road or hung up in chunky snow. Many of the ramps were either not plowed or very choppy. I had to hammer through a 4" drift to get off the parkway. It was awesome. Love driving in this stuff. Just be careful all of you that venture out tomorrow. We are planning for Blue early am.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2016)

Bene288 said:


> Just arrived in Jersey (Neptune Twp) from Albany. At least 2" + down here. The drive wouldn't have been doable without a good 4x4. And I mean a truck or something tall, clearance is the key, not just 4 wheel drive. Lots of Subies and SUVs off the road or hung up in chunky snow. Many of the ramps were either not plowed or very choppy. I had to hammer through a 4" drift to get off the parkway. It was awesome. Love driving in this stuff. Just be careful all of you that venture out tomorrow. We are planning for Blue early am.



Just read my gf this story, she loved it.

This goes well with a detail I left out in my last post, apparently all the State roads up by Blue are an absolute trainwreck and haven't really even been gotten to yet, with "accidents up & down both sides" of the access road. She said they're just in the last hour getting to them, "cant guarantee" how they'll be in the morning.  

My opinion?  I know PA is TERRIBLE with roads, but I have to imagine by tomorrow morning they should be okay given they have the whole night.  If not, I do have a real SUV (aka not an AWD station wagon called a "Crossover") with 4x4.


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## Bene288 (Jan 23, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Just read my gf this story, she loved it.
> 
> This goes well with a detail I left out in my last post, apparently all the State roads up by Blue are an absolute trainwreck and haven't really even been gotten to yet, with "accidents up & down both sides" of the access road. She said they're just in the last hour getting to them, "cant guarantee" how they'll be in the morning.
> 
> My opinion?  I know PA is TERRIBLE with roads, but I have to imagine by tomorrow morning they should be okay given they have the whole night.  If not, I do have a real SUV (aka not an AWD station wagon called a "Crossover") with 4x4.



Above all you just need to know how to drive in snow.. Lot of novice drivers out there. Be safe if you venture out!


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## UVSHTSTRM (Jan 23, 2016)

Sounds like too many people don't know how to drive.  Got a Suburu Outback and I could go through mounds of snow with that.


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## abc (Jan 23, 2016)

Actually, too many people who don't know they don't know how to drive on snow.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 24, 2016)

Getting on the road now, hopefully I dont meet up with the Donner Party.


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## VTKilarney (Jan 24, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Getting on the road now, hopefully I dont meet up with the Donner Party.



Good luck!


.


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## Cornhead (Jan 24, 2016)

No word, maybe he did encounter the Donner party, good eats.


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## Not Sure (Jan 24, 2016)

Was curious also , didn't  make it to Blue but went to one of my Pocono BC spots , 5 miles north of the Blue mountain . The snow amount tailed off very quickly , only a foot but decided to do it anyway .
Someone else beat me . One track almost straight down ? Or was it a skin track up  ? When I got to the top I found a boot tracks . They had hike up the other side . How the hell does one ski straight down without turning on a 16 deg slope ? Brakes deployed ?
Was fun but hit lots of rocks .


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## Warp Daddy (Jan 24, 2016)

UVSHTSTRM said:


> Sounds like too many people don't know how to drive.  Got a Suburu Outback and I could go through mounds of snow with that.


 

Hell yeah i  toatally agree    I live in the snow belt and :dunce: ave driven SAABS , Subies and Toyo's thru 2 ft plus crap up here many o times over the yrs . If you KNOW how to drive in this stuff you dont need a damn Dodge Power Wagon


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 24, 2016)

Cornhead said:


> *No word, maybe he did encounter the Donner party*


No cannibalism to report.  Passed some stranded and plowed in cars and 18-wheelers that may have though.

 On the road at 7:30 for the Poconos, and to say there was very little  traffic is an understatement, LOL.  With the exception of plow trucks, I  saw few vehicles.  Passed some of those "Ghost trailers" as the news called them on 78, CRAZY.   Almost all the plates at the mountain were PA when I arrived, locals  and near-locals.  Place didn't get busy until after lunch.    As expected, NJ roads were in much better shape than PA roads, but the trip wasn't bad.  It only "cost" me maybe 15 extra minutes to get there, if that. 

 It will be  another 20 years before a Pocono resort skis as well as it did today.   The 24" of snow was a light powdery sort due to the cold temps yesterday, moguls on plenty of trails, lots of snow, the groomers really were "packed powder" rather than ice.  It was a beautiful day and a great time.  Best day I've ever had at any Pocono ski area, and I doubt it will be eclipsed.


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## abc (Jan 24, 2016)

> Best day I've ever had at any Pocono ski area, and I doubt it will be eclipsed.


With the weather pattern of the last few years, you never know. It may happen again before the season's over!


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## jrmagic (Jan 25, 2016)

I drove back to Westchester from VT today and was really amazed at how sharp the northern cutoff was for this storm. I didn't see any traces of snow until the putnum/dutchess border yet had 15 inches at home less than 40 miles south.


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## bigbog (Jan 26, 2016)

Warp Daddy said:


> Hell yeah i  toatally agree    I live in the snow belt and :dunce: ave driven SAABS , Subies and Toyo's thru 2 ft plus crap up here many o times over the yrs . If you KNOW how to drive in this stuff you dont need a damn Dodge Power Wagon



+1
Youtube certainly has some great footage of the stuff to our south.   When it starts with freezing rain...wild things are bound to happen, especially on those mountain pass highways..with those southern drivers who drive 99% on cruise.


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## Bene288 (Jan 26, 2016)

jrmagic said:


> I drove back to Westchester from VT today and was really amazed at how sharp the northern cutoff was for this storm. I didn't see any traces of snow until the putnum/dutchess border yet had 15 inches at home less than 40 miles south.



When I was driving down thruway in the blizzard it went from nothing to white out within half a mile. Never seen that before.


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## tnt1234 (Feb 16, 2016)

Just seeing this thread now.

I skied Blue that sunday with my oldest daughter - was awesome.  Best PA day I can remember.  So happy they didn't groom everything overnight.

Natural moguls, soft snow, just awesome.  Big crowds, but evidently not as big as the following day, as all the schools were closed and everyone was dug out.

Only thing that would have made it better.....in a typical season, with a little something in the woods, the bike trails and other tree shots would have been awesome.  We ventured into the woods a couple of times, but there just wasn't any base. 

Anyway, highlight of this dismal season for sure.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 16, 2016)

tnt1234 said:


> Just seeing this thread now.
> *
> I skied Blue that sunday with my oldest daughter - was awesome.* * Best PA day I can remember.  So happy they didn't groom everything overnight.*
> 
> Anyway, *highlight of this dismal season for sure*.



Yes, and when the best skiing of the season can be found in the Poconos, you know it's been an all-time worst ski season.


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## Not Sure (Feb 16, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yes, and when the best skiing of the season can be found in the Poconos, you know it's been an all-time worst ski season.


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