# Christmas week...



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 22, 2015)

Man, did this look ugly 36 hours ago. Don't get me wrong, Christmas Eve and day are going to be disasters for the mountains, but the following week looks serviceable as of right now.

The 12z GFS and EURO runs have decided that it's time to pump the PNA and break down the ridge for the 28th through New Years. Is this a large scale pattern change? No, but it the EURO is showing our first shot of legitimate cold air coming through the region next Monday. The GFS is a little more hesitant but does get solid snowmaking temps into NE.

Accompanying this cold shot is a storm which appears to be a... cutter, but upon closer examination it appears like we have more of a SWFE event on our hands. The source of this cold, a projected 1035mb+ High Pressure looks to hold stout over us and keep the warm sector at bay in SNE. The result, a wintry thump for the Ski Areas. The Ensembles also show a slug of moisture hitting this wall of hypothetical cold air as well. Hmmmmm...

While this is not a guaruntee, the fact that the PNA is showing signs of relenting from this terrible pattern is giving this possible time period some credence. Model support is almost universal:roll:, but that is always bound to chance. Let's see how the next couple of days of model runs unfold. Nonetheless, look for this dreadful pattern to break down during Jan, but Christmas Week may be a welcome respite.


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## JDMRoma (Dec 22, 2015)

Thanks for the glimmer of hope. !
We can all use some positive thoughts 

Time for some serious Snow dancing !
⛷⛷


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## Tin (Dec 22, 2015)

Liking the way things are trending for Tuesday.


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## catsup948 (Dec 22, 2015)

18z GFS which is always a bit snow happy is trending both the Sunday and Tuesday storms in better directions.  Let's see how this goes.  Tuesday is the one to watch more.


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 22, 2015)

Latest GFS. Let's expand that band north.


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## catsup948 (Dec 23, 2015)

Boston Bulldog said:


> View attachment 18241
> 
> Latest GFS. Let's expand that band north.



This would help magic's snowmaking plan!


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## Glenn (Dec 23, 2015)

Long range is looking better temperature wise.


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## Tin (Dec 23, 2015)

Silly 12z. RI goes from 70* on Christmas Eve to 20" of snow on the ground for New Year's Eve LOL


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 23, 2015)

EURO and GFS are looking good as of right now. That band seems to be expanding as the High is modeled to get stronger. Good stuff. Shame it's 100+ hours out


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 23, 2015)

Textbook SWFE event right here. Southwest flow of moisture into a stout cold high pressure. If that low can transition to the coast, we may have something bigger.


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 23, 2015)

Tasty


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## yeggous (Dec 23, 2015)

I'll be in North Conway from Friday night 12/25 until Sunday 1/3.

I just put my snow tires on yesterday. It's game time.


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 23, 2015)

18z GFS thumps Central VT-Central NH. Nearly a foot verbatim for Killington-Waterville and south to Crotched and Mt Snow.

Look if you dare.



If this scenario is the truth, go 6-10 inches for the area. Widespread 12+ is unrealistic for this type of system.


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## yeggous (Dec 23, 2015)

Boston Bulldog said:


> 18z GFS thumps Central VT-Central NH. Nearly a foot verbatim for Killington-Waterville and south to Ragged and Okemo.



Whatever you're smoking you could at least share. 18Z GFS is a hot mess. Will leave just a pile of slush in it's wake.

More importantly, it's way to early too start commenting on run-to-run variance in a specific operational model, especially on 06/18Z cycles.


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## Tin (Dec 23, 2015)

That 18z is a mess. No matter what, whether it is 5" or 15", this is just a base builder, concrete and ice. Not enough to really get things open.


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## The Sneak (Dec 23, 2015)

15" of base building cement would be a godsend.

Putting the snow tires on Sunday. 


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## JDMRoma (Dec 23, 2015)

Loon this weekend via Exit32




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## ss20 (Dec 23, 2015)

yeggous said:


> Whatever you're smoking you could at least share. 18Z GFS is a hot mess. Will leave just a pile of slush in it's wake.
> 
> More importantly, it's way to early too start commenting on run-to-run variance in a specific operational model, especially on 06/18Z cycles.





Tin said:


> That 18z is a mess. No matter what, whether it is 5" or 15", this is just a base builder, concrete and ice. Not enough to really get things open.



Christ, don't kill the messenger!  You guys are acting like we're coming off three 2 foot snowstorms within the last week and this will ruin it.  Not acting like we've had the worst December in NE history.  SNOW!  Remember, SNOW!

The earlier the better for this storm.  Monday night arrival could mean we see the totals on that map.  A Tuesday @ noon arrival would bring nothing but ice holds and downed power lines. 

I'm hoping the snow line ticks south to I-84 in CT.  I'm hoping to teach this first weekend of January!


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## billski (Dec 23, 2015)

*First call for Dec 29/30, Tue/Wed 2015*

Several of my sources are of a growing consensus that we may see a measurable amount of heavy, wet snow during this period.  That will be followed by one day of warm up, then it gets cool again for the snow makers to wind up.

Way too early for any details on the exact timing or how much, but it seems clear it will cover the whole region.


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## deadheadskier (Dec 23, 2015)

Moved

Seriously Bill.  Before making a "First Call", take a look at the forums.  

This was already being discussed.  It was one of the very first weather threads in the subforum.


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## Tin (Dec 24, 2015)

GFS is colder, CMC is WAY COLDER. All snow for all of New England with the exception of Cape/Islands, extreme coast. Catskills and Berks get hit real well.


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## andrec10 (Dec 24, 2015)

Tin said:


> GFS is colder, CMC is WAY COLDER. All snow for all of New England with the exception of Cape/Islands, extreme coast. Catskills and Berks get hit real well.



I like this! The temp goes from low 50's on Sunday to a high of 27 at Hunter. BRING IT ON!


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 24, 2015)

EURO goes warmer but moot for now. As long as there is a storm on guidance this far out that's a win.

EDIT: Warmer aloft (more sleet farther north)


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## Tin (Dec 24, 2015)

Could be a nasty ice maker in southern VT/NH but the sleet/ice/rain ending will be perfect for a base starter.


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## dlague (Dec 24, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> Moved
> 
> Seriously Bill.  Before making a "First Call", take a look at the forums.
> 
> This was already being discussed.  It was one of the very first weather threads in the subforum.




This is starting to get funny!


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## ss20 (Dec 24, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> Moved
> 
> Seriously Bill.  Before making a "First Call", take a look at the forums.
> 
> This was already being discussed.  It was one of the very first weather threads in the subforum.





dlague said:


> This is starting to get funny!



Billski is ~0 for 10 the past 2 weeks!  :dunce:


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## VTKilarney (Dec 24, 2015)

ss20 said:


> Billski is ~0 for 10 the past 2 weeks!  :dunce:



Why do you guys pick on him so much?  He seems like one of the nicer guys on the forum.


.


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## ss20 (Dec 24, 2015)

VTKilarney said:


> Why do you guys pick on him so much?  He seems like one of the nicer guys on the forum.
> 
> 
> .



Playful ribbing is given where ribbing is deserved :razz:

Back to the weather... Monday night looks like it'll be the most productive night of snowmaking of the season.  Vermont should see temps in the teens with humidity in the 20%-30% range most of the night.  Coupled with 6-12 inches of wet snow and more excellent snowmaking temperatures NYE and beyond, MLK weekend could be saved.


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## Tin (Dec 24, 2015)

Tin said:


> Could be a nasty ice maker in southern VT/NH but the sleet/ice/rain ending will be perfect for a base starter.



EURO is looking sexy now. Damn


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## cbackman (Dec 24, 2015)




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## andrec10 (Dec 24, 2015)

Tin said:


> EURO is looking sexy now. Damn



You know its been bad when the EURO is sexy....


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## Tin (Dec 24, 2015)

Just 10-14" in the places that need it will be nice. Doubt anyone sees more than that.


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 24, 2015)

BAH HUMBUG! It's not gonna happen!














:wink:


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## Rowsdower (Dec 25, 2015)

All the GFS models are putting a big storm over New England the next few days. Looks like most mountains could pick up 10+ inches. One model leaves out the Poconos, but what else is new? 

It could be a post-Christmas miracle if it works out.


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## ALLSKIING (Dec 25, 2015)

Merry Christmas


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## catsup948 (Dec 25, 2015)

The Canadian has a another storm coming in for Thursday too.


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 25, 2015)

Man GFS wallops CNE and NNE. Farther north than before. No real snow in CT or RI.


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## ss20 (Dec 25, 2015)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Man GFS wallops CNE and NNE. Farther north than before. No real snow in CT or RI.



Yes... looks like this could be an anomaly.  6+inches more for VT and VT than any model run before and the rain/snow line is 50 miles more north :-?

But I'm hoping for snow in the Flatlands so maybe my optimism is showing! :idea:


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 25, 2015)

from_the_NEK said:


> BAH HUMBUG! It's not gonna happen!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Gotta keep the expectations low.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 25, 2015)

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off details of NOAA for Killington looking good for snow mid week at most north east hills hope this the first of a lot more to come for everyone!

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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 26, 2015)

Ticks northward has been the trend over the past 24 hours. Pretty good thump for the ski areas as we narrow in, but the sleet and wintery mix line seems to be knocking on the doorstep of Mt. Snow to around Keene NH. Gradient appears to be on a northwest to southeast slant, typical for this type of system.


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## catsup948 (Dec 26, 2015)

RPM. Short range model.


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## CoolMike (Dec 26, 2015)

18z GFS operational run looks even better than the above


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## catsup948 (Dec 26, 2015)

I'll take 6 inches and lock it in with some rain and sleet.


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## ss20 (Dec 26, 2015)

18z and 00z GFS models both came back a bit more precipitous and a bit more southern.  I like...a lot.  I think that with Monday's very cold temperatures the snow will stick around longer than predicted.  I see a foot plus for mid-mountain elevations from the NH/VT/Mass border and north.  I would not be surprised if this remains an all-snow event from 3500' and up.


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## Smellytele (Dec 27, 2015)

This AM Tuesday/Tuesday night shows a change over to sleet/freezing drizzle/ freezing rain everywhere even Jay and Sugarloaf


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## Tin (Dec 27, 2015)

Even if it did, that is a good thing. Makes that new 10"+ base true concrete.


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## Tin (Dec 27, 2015)

Decent for the places hurting in the Berks and Southern VT.


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## thetrailboss (Dec 27, 2015)

Looks decent at Sugarloaf:


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## ScottySkis (Dec 27, 2015)

If it doesn't snow down at all the mountains this week it my fault because getting snow tires on car now.

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## Bostonian (Dec 28, 2015)

looks like 4-8 for the home hill... finally some good news!


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## catsup948 (Dec 28, 2015)

The EURO seems to have won this one.  More snow north and east.  Green Spine 6-8" all the way up. Berkshire East hopefully 6".  6-10" for the whites and maybe more than that in Maine. Surface temps will be very cold while the mid layers warm significantly and keep snow totals down after the initial front end thump.


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## Boston Bulldog (Dec 28, 2015)

8 inches will be difficult to come by in NH. I would lean 4-6 inches, maybe less if the sleet comes in faster :/


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## andrec10 (Dec 28, 2015)

At this point...sleet is base building...


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## yeggous (Dec 28, 2015)

andrec10 said:


> At this point...sleet is base building...



Sleet can make an awesome skiing surface. Ever hit it the morning after a heavy sleet storm? It holds an edge incredibly well. You can tip it waaaaay over.


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## billski (Dec 28, 2015)

Rochester ny, 2" heavy transitioned now to freezing rain


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## catsup948 (Dec 29, 2015)

Ripping at Wildcat and Sugarloaf.  South and west starting to see heavy sleet and freezing rain.


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## Bostonian (Dec 29, 2015)

Still snowing hard in Gilford, I am stuck in work - but looking at the webcam.  Licking my lips - I cannot wait to get out!!


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## john1200c (Dec 29, 2015)

A little bit of sleet mixing in in North Conway from time to time.  I'd say about 6 inches so far....


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