# Summer/Fall as an indicator of Winter



## VTKilarney (Jul 28, 2014)

Is there any correlation between summer and/or fall temperatures and temperatures for the following winter?

Does a cooler summer generally result in a cooler winter, or do things tend to average out and the winters tend to be warmer?  Or is there no correlation at all?


----------



## Rowsdower (Jul 31, 2014)

I dunno but I needed an extra blanket last night here in New Jersey. Tonight I'm only leaving one window open!


----------



## deadheadskier (Aug 1, 2014)

No one can predict the weather accurately two weeks from now.  So, I'm going with no. Whatever weather we are experiencing this Summer has zero predictable affect on what we will experience next Winter.  

We could have an epic ski season weather wise, we could have a bad season. 

No one knows the answer.  And if they say they do, they either have a huge ego or like to gamble.  The science just isn't there; at least from what I've witnessed from almost 39 trips around the sun.


----------



## jack97 (Aug 1, 2014)

Some have forecasted that the same jet stream pattern which has made last winter cold and this summer cool will still persist for the upcoming winter season.


----------



## dlague (Aug 1, 2014)

jack97 said:


> Some have forecasted that the same jet stream pattern which has made last winter cold and this summer cool will still persist for the upcoming winter season.



Can you remove the wet January?  Or maybe it will be colder so that precip will be snow - that would rock!


----------



## hammer (Aug 1, 2014)

I'm pretty sure it will be colder this winter than it is now.


----------



## dlague (Aug 1, 2014)

hammer said:


> I'm pretty sure it will be colder this winter than it is now.



Good prediction!  I think you are spot on - 100% accurate!


----------



## jack97 (Aug 2, 2014)

dlague said:


> Can you *remove* the wet January?  Or maybe it will be colder so that precip will be snow - that would rock!



haha.... If I believe in AGW then I can alter the CO2 knob to control what type of Janurary we will get.

ok, sarcasm off. Here's a paywall paper which shows correlation of solar forcing and the change in pattern of the jet stream. Hmmm.....solar physicist have stated the sun was most active in the 1990s and now the sun is going dormant. In addition, the present sun activity is lower than any of them have observed in their lives. Wondering what that will mean. 

*Quasi-biennial oscillation and solar cycle influences on winter Arctic total ozone*


----------



## dlague (Aug 2, 2014)

jack97 said:


> haha.... If I believe in AGW then I can alter the CO2 knob to control what type of Janurary we will get.
> 
> ok, sarcasm off. Here's a paywall paper which shows correlation of solar forcing and the change in pattern of the jet stream. Hmmm.....solar physicist have stated the sun was most active in the 1990s and now the sun is going dormant. In addition, the present sun activity is lower than any of them have observed in their lives. Wondering what that will mean.
> 
> *Quasi-biennial oscillation and solar cycle influences on winter Arctic total ozone*



Works for me!


.......


----------



## yeggous (Aug 2, 2014)

It depends where you are. There is a strong El Niño correlation on the west coast. Not so much in New England.

Some people will invoke the October snowfall in Siberia argument though.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## dlague (Aug 4, 2014)

From what I see this far it also drives the jet stream.  Maybe I  overly optimistic!


.......


----------



## Not Sure (Aug 22, 2014)

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/08/perfect-scoring-winter-analog-paints.html?m=1

Whoo Hooo!'n


----------



## ScottySkis (Aug 22, 2014)

The summer that never was in the summer of2014 hoping means the strong winter of 14/15 to be an epic winter for north east.


----------



## Nick (Aug 22, 2014)

I think this summer wasn't really oppressively hot like some years. Overall it was pretty mild and I feel like the recent cool down came pretty quick


----------



## BenedictGomez (Aug 22, 2014)

yeggous said:


> It depends where you are. There is a strong El Niño correlation on the west coast. Not so much in New England.
> 
> *Some people will invoke the October snowfall in Siberia argument though.*



Me.   In general, climatologists, meteorologists, and gypsies dont know much about the weather.  Human beings are simply not an advanced enough species (yet) to accurately predict weather in the long-term.   There is, however, a statistically significant correlation between eastern winters and Siberian snowpack in the fall, even if scientists arent sure why.


----------



## jack97 (Aug 23, 2014)

^^^









The blog is on this site,
nc_state blog on forecasting


----------

