# Weekend Speculation Thread - The Presidential Edition! 2/16-17



## tnt1234 (Feb 11, 2019)

High stakes table this week with lots of action!

Big storm rolling in midweek.  The Pros will be ditching work and getting it while they can Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, leaving the rank amateurs to face the eternal NE question-how bad will it rain this weekend?

Some indications that the forecast will improve but will it be enough?

Who's going where?  Who's sitting this hand out?  Who thinks this holiday will be a total bust?  Who thinks it will be a surprise great couple of days?

Ante up and deal the cards!


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## tnt1234 (Feb 11, 2019)

Me, I'm dragging my feet again....Was supposed to do two days in s. vt.  Maybe Magic>Okemo (Trying yet again for a first day at magic!  And i have the epic pass and Okemo is not blacked out...)

Haven't booked anything yet.  Might need to go further north.  But rooms are getting scarce....


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## cdskier (Feb 11, 2019)

My cousin and his family are using my condo in VT this weekend so I'm out for VT. Made plans to head up to the Finger Lakes to visit wineries instead, but do have the option to day trip Monday to the Cats if conditions were right (not looking good at the moment for the Cats though).

For N-VT, I've seen some positive trends for the weekend, but need to see that continue more and see how the models look over the next day or so as they get a better handle on the system. Still a bit early to say what will happen. Lots of room for this to go either way. At least some different outcomes are still in play though.


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## tnt1234 (Feb 11, 2019)

cdskier said:


> My cousin and his family are using my condo in VT this weekend so I'm out for VT. Made plans to head up to the Finger Lakes to visit wineries instead, but do have the option to day trip Monday to the Cats if conditions were right (not looking good at the moment for the Cats though).
> 
> For N-VT, I've seen some positive trends for the weekend, but need to see that continue more and see how the models look over the next day or so as they get a better handle on the system. Still a bit early to say what will happen. Lots of room for this to go either way. At least some different outcomes are still in play though.



Any chance for S.Vt in what you are looking at?  or do I need to aim higher?


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## sankaty (Feb 11, 2019)

Latest Euro that just rolled out is much colder.  A quick look shows mostly snow Kton north.  Too early for specifics, and could easily be wrong, but an encouraging sign after showing a much rainier solution over the past several days.


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## kingslug (Feb 11, 2019)

I'm at Stowe Friday to Monday..maybe a hop up to Jay or down to SB. Have to work  Wednesday


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## tnt1234 (Feb 11, 2019)

sankaty said:


> Latest Euro that just rolled out is much colder.  A quick look shows mostly snow Kton north.  Too early for specifics, and could easily be wrong, but an encouraging sign after showing a much rainier solution over the past several days.



Good news.  

Bad news for my drive.

Love to see that trend a little more for snow to teh south.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2019)

Reading reports that Stowe is in about as terrible & dangerous an icy condition as eyes have ever seen.  Sounds like the potential 8" to 12" coming isnt just welcome, but pretty much mandatory.


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## urungus (Feb 11, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> Reading reports that Stowe is in about as terrible & dangerous an icy condition as eyes have ever seen.  Sounds like the potential 8" to 12" coming isnt just welcome, but pretty much mandatory.



Where are you seeing that?  Reports at https://www.stowesnowreport.com don’t seem too bad.  Would be good to get an additional source of reports as Stowe no longer have written narrative in their snow report.


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## kingslug (Feb 11, 2019)

Awesome..so I won't die there..nice.
This would be just awesome: https://www.stowe.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/snow-and-weather-report.aspx


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## pauldotcom (Feb 11, 2019)

My plan is Snow on Tuesday, stay up near the Bush and hit it Wed.


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## kingslug (Feb 11, 2019)

http://www.nobullski-vermont.com/members/stowe.html


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2019)

urungus said:


> Where are you seeing that?



From a local poster on another forum, not from an official snow report.  I believe it given pretty much everywhere is apparently a hockey rink, and you had that fatality yesterday at Jay Peak.  MRG's report calls it "stiff", etc..  Apparently the woods in Vermont are like a glass pond.


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## drjeff (Feb 11, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> Reading reports that Stowe is in about as terrible & dangerous an icy condition as eyes have ever seen.  Sounds like the potential 8" to 12" coming isnt just welcome, but pretty much mandatory.



Reports from multiple friends of mine who were up at Stowe today with their kids racing in the U16 VT State Super G Championship, is that the hill is firm, but skiing very well where the groomers did their thing. The trees though, are in need of the incoming storm, as the most common phrase I read in the text thread among those in my usual ski group who are up there today was "glacial" and that's from a guy who thinks that a hockey rink, fresh off a pass by a zamboni, is a manageable surface! :wink:


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## Boxtop Willie (Feb 11, 2019)

cdskier...if you're heading to finger lakes region, hit Bristol for a day. Both my kids race for Hobart and they say conditions are spectacular...lake effect snow just keeps dumping. It's not a bad area for being in the the middle of God-awful nothin'. I do one or two days there each year with the boys...always a good time


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## cdskier (Feb 11, 2019)

Boxtop Willie said:


> cdskier...if you're heading to finger lakes region, hit Bristol for a day. Both my kids race for Hobart and they say conditions are spectacular...lake effect snow just keeps dumping. It's not a bad area for being in the the middle of God-awful nothin'. I do one or two days there each year with the boys...always a good time



Bristol is a bit out of my way as I'll be around the western side of Cayuga and the eastern side of Seneca with a pretty full day planned on Saturday, then a drive home Sunday from Watkins Glen. I skied Bristol back in college though all the time and always had a good time there. (I went to college in Rochester). When I was creating my itinerary, I did actually toy with the idea of re-visiting Bristol, but it was just a bit too far from the area I'll be in.


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## Smellytele (Feb 11, 2019)

here is an interesting forecast- snow during the day but rain at night*Friday*

A 50 percent chance of snow.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Very windy. 
*Friday Night*
Rain likely.  Cloudy, with a low around 26. Very windy.  Chance of precipitation is 70%.

*Saturday*
Snow likely.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Very windy.  Chance of precipitation is 60%.


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## urungus (Feb 11, 2019)

Smellytele said:


> here is an interesting forecast- snow during the day but rain at night*Friday*
> 
> A 50 percent chance of snow.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Very windy.
> *Friday Night*
> ...



Forecast for where?


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2019)

This might be one of those times where I make a Go/No-go decision on Friday after the 12z runs.


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## tnt1234 (Feb 11, 2019)

cdskier said:


> Bristol is a bit out of my way as I'll be around the western side of Cayuga and the eastern side of Seneca with a pretty full day planned on Saturday, then a drive home Sunday from Watkins Glen. I skied Bristol back in college though all the time and always had a good time there. (I went to college in Rochester). When I was creating my itinerary, I did actually toy with the idea of re-visiting Bristol, but it was just a bit too far from the area I'll be in.



huh.  Any chance greek peak is enjoying lake effect snow?


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## Smellytele (Feb 11, 2019)

urungus said:


> Forecast for where?


Cannon


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## Jully (Feb 11, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> This might be one of those times where I make a Go/No-go decision on Friday after the 12z runs.



Agreed here. 

Likely making mine Saturday. Already in NH Saturday for some boot fitting, so I'll be deciding whether to just drive back home for a weekend or keep going for some skiing.


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## crazy (Feb 11, 2019)

Forecasted snow totals have dropped in the last couple of hours in the Whites and Southern Vt. but are holding strong in Northern Vt.


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## ss20 (Feb 11, 2019)

Ski Jiminy Peak tomorrow afternoon...probably 10am-6pm shift and enjoy the new snow.  Then slog up to Turn of River Lodge Tuesday evening and ski Killington Wednesday.  

Yes, you read that right...twisty MA/VT backroads as the storm rapidly intensifies.  I'm crazy and accept it.


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## gladerider (Feb 11, 2019)

josh fox says the outlook for MRG this weekend improved a bit overnight. i think i will wait until the Wednesday model runs to be either optimistic or pessimistic. i am heading up to sugarbush for the weekend. crossing my fingers.....


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2019)

gladerider said:


> josh fox says the outlook for MRG this weekend improved a bit overnight. i think i will wait until the Wednesday model runs to be either optimistic or pessimistic. i am heading up to sugarbush for the weekend. crossing my fingers.....



Not saying he's wrong in this case as it has improved some, but be cautious of that guy's holiday weekend forecasts.


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## Glenn (Feb 12, 2019)

Things are looking better for Friday. It's trending cooler with lower precip amounts...and moving out quicker. Right now, NWS Albany has the changeover line just south of the Southern Greens. Tentatively good for the ski areas. And should be all wrapped up by the time the masses get to the lifts on Saturday AM. :lol:


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## tnt1234 (Feb 12, 2019)

OK - booked a room in Manchester.  If Friday is no rain, finally will get to Magic Mountain!

If weather is poor, we'll ski Okemo or Broomley Saturday for the snow making and grooming, and maybe Mt. Snow on the way home sunday.  

Yeehaw....


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## kingslug (Feb 12, 2019)

If the Mt Mansfield report is right..crazy winds Friday..might be stuck on the triple for a while...


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## tnt1234 (Feb 12, 2019)

kingslug said:


> If the Mt Mansfield report is right..crazy winds Friday..might be stuck on the triple for a while...



I saw 100MPH on mountain forecast overnight friday.  Crazy.


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## kingslug (Feb 12, 2019)

Wonder if its worth going up thursday night..


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## tnt1234 (Feb 12, 2019)

kingslug said:


> Wonder if its worth going up thursday night..



When it coms to VT skiing weather, at some point you just have to go and see what happens.  If you have friday free, and are planning to be there for the weekend anyway, I would go thursday night. 

Might be good, might suck.  But hey, you'll be in stowe ahead of the Sat. crowd.  Not a bad way to spend the day no matter what.


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## kingslug (Feb 12, 2019)

And beat the friday night weather..driving up then might suck


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2019)

kingslug said:


> And beat the *friday night weather..driving up then might suck*



That will be my lot in life.

The good news is the NAM models are showing virtually no pcp Friday afternoon/night.  Canuck isnt bad either.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2019)

I've never been to Mont Sutton, but I'm pondering the idea of fleeing into Canada to avoid the hoards of PDW Saturday, which, IMO is the most crowded day of the entire ski season. 

Has anyone does this?  Wondering if going to Canada can help avoid insane American holiday crowds.


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## abc (Feb 12, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> I've never been to Mont Sutton, but I'm pondering the idea of fleeing into Canada to avoid the hoards of PDW Saturday, which, IMO is the most crowded day of the entire ski season.
> 
> Has anyone does this?  Wondering if going to Canada can help avoid insane American holiday crowds.


I went to Tremblen last year on that same weekend. 

But it was also a school holiday up there last year. So quiet it wasn’t. Don’t know if it’s school holiday again this year. 

I can’t say how it compares with President weekend in VT, because I rarely ski in VT that weekend. But I’d say it’s not super crowded. Busy gor sure, but not insane.


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## tnt1234 (Feb 12, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> That will be my lot in life.
> 
> The good news is the NAM models are showing virtually no pcp Friday afternoon/night.  Canuck isnt bad either.



Great news...hope it holds!


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## kingslug (Feb 13, 2019)

Well they missed the low snowfall total by..an inch. Stowe showing 7 inches..that is not very helpful. So much for 8 to 15.
More on the way so I hope it does something...that ice stays around forever.


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## Glenn (Feb 13, 2019)

I imagine driving anywhere Friday evening will be busy with the snowfall midweek and the holiday weekend.


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## kingslug (Feb 13, 2019)

Why I'm going to try for Thursday night..


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## tumbler (Feb 13, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> I've never been to Mont Sutton, but I'm pondering the idea of fleeing into Canada to avoid the hoards of *PDW Saturday, which, IMO is the most crowded day of the entire ski season. *



I think the Saturday of MLK is the most crowded.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2019)

tnt1234 said:


> Great news...*hope it holds!*



It didnt, right back to rain Friday on the NAM.   Canadian came in much warmer too.  Still time for it to change; at least it's not a deluge anyway.


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## tnt1234 (Feb 13, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> It didnt, right back to rain Friday on the NAM.   Canadian came in much warmer too.  Still time for it to change; at least it's not a deluge anyway.



Crap.

Does it at least end with snow?


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## mulva (Feb 13, 2019)

I'm seeing about 4mm of rain after maybe an inch of snow for Killington and southern VT.  It's not catastrophic.  A week ago I was thinking of not even bothering with this weekend.


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## tumbler (Feb 13, 2019)

I think the hope is that it stays snow at elevation.  It might be on the wet side but better than rain.  I don't care what it does in the valley.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2019)

Did metro Boston get any snow from this storm (I'm hoping the answer is no)?


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2019)

tnt1234 said:


> Crap. Does it at least end with snow?



Where snow is possible, maybe an inch per GFS & NAM, but you'd have to be far north. Nothing on the Canuck.

And I agree, it's close enough on the GFS & NAM to hope elevation keeps it all snow, but the Canuck is 38/39 even into Canada.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2019)

The fact Stowe is telling people to stay out of the trees despite 7" of snow, is not encouraging:



> _our safety is our priority: *Woods skiing is not recommended at this time. *The surface underneath any new snow on ungroomed terrain is variable and may be very icy. Please use extreme caution._


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## Brewbeer (Feb 13, 2019)

The Boston / Metrowest area received a few inches before turning to sleet, freezing rain, then finally rain.


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## JimG. (Feb 13, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> The fact Stowe is telling people to stay out of the trees despite 7" of snow, is not encouraging:



Strange. Killington reported 10" and they've been dropping ropes on naturals and trees all day.


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## machski (Feb 13, 2019)

JimG. said:


> Strange. Killington reported 10" and they've been dropping ropes on naturals and trees all day.


Killington also switched to a sleet mix Midway through the storm according to their report.  So that will increase the density of the new cover and pack it in better than just 7 inches of fluff Stowe probably got.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## kingslug (Feb 13, 2019)

That 7 inches probably blew all over the place..mansfield is aa very different mountain than k..


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2019)

machski said:


> Killington also switched to a sleet mix Midway through the storm according to their report.  So that will increase the density of the new cover and pack it in better than just 7 inches of fluff Stowe probably got.



I read that the snow in Stowe was actually very dense, not powdery at all.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2019)

JimG. said:


> Strange. Killington reported 10" and they've been dropping ropes on naturals and trees all day.



 Jay Peak reported 8 to 10, and already had by far the best base, and even they said "mid mountain trees are skiing the best", which to me is code for, terrain that is steeper and not holding snow may still icy.  Will need to see some various trip reports.


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## tumbler (Feb 13, 2019)

benedictgomez said:


> the fact stowe is telling people to stay out of the trees despite 7" of snow, is not encouraging:



wimps


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## JimG. (Feb 13, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> Jay Peak reported 8 to 10, and already had by far the best base, and even they said "mid mountain trees are skiing the best", which to me is code for, terrain that is steeper and not holding snow may still icy.  Will need to see some various trip reports.



After skiing the trashed out exits on Anarchy and Julio over a week ago before the rain and warmth I would have to agree with that exact evaluation for K.


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## Jully (Feb 13, 2019)

Word on how So. NH did? Thinking of taking a half day at work tomorrow and jumping up to Crotched if it's not a sleety mess.


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## chuckstah (Feb 13, 2019)

Jully said:


> Word on how So. NH did? Thinking of taking a half day at work tomorrow and jumping up to Crotched if it's not a sleety mess.



I skied Crotched today.  They got about 6 inches, very dense snow.  Everything skied good with only UFO and Jupiter's left ungroomed. Solstice glade was skiable, and will get better with more traffic.  Being the first one on ungroomed sections was not ideal. The snow was starting to set up a bit when I left at 4 ish.


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## gregnye (Feb 13, 2019)

JimG. said:


> Strange. Killington reported 10" and they've been dropping ropes on naturals and trees all day.



I was there today. The naturals were pretty decent but the trees were horrible. At least "Chop Chop". More like Scrape-scrape on ice/rocks.


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## tnt1234 (Feb 13, 2019)

Josh Fox calling Friday 3-6" above 2000'.....


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## Jully (Feb 13, 2019)

chuckstah said:


> I skied Crotched today.  They got about 6 inches, very dense snow.  Everything skied good with only UFO and Jupiter's left ungroomed. Solstice glade was skiable, and will get better with more traffic.  Being the first one on ungroomed sections was not ideal. The snow was starting to set up a bit when I left at 4 ish.



Great Intel, thanks. The other glades were not skiable or you didn't get to see?


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## chuckstah (Feb 13, 2019)

I saw tracks in other glades.  I skied some of the short shots in and around Final Frontier. Thin but very  skiable.  Didn't try any glades off the top.  O ya, the Rocket went down for much of the afternoon (maintenance), but eventually came back on line.

Sent from my moto e5 cruise using Tapatalk


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## kingslug (Feb 14, 2019)

What we get in inches..the west gets in feet this season


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## machski (Feb 14, 2019)

kingslug said:


> What we get in inches..the west gets in feet this season


And this differs from most seasons how exactly???

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## tumbler (Feb 14, 2019)

kingslug said:


> What we get in inches..the west gets in feet this season



Then go west! I'm not going to bitch about new snow when I can get in my car and drive to ski.


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## cdskier (Feb 14, 2019)

tumbler said:


> Then go west! I'm not going to bitch about new snow when I can get in my car and drive to ski.



+1


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## machski (Feb 14, 2019)

We aren't the only ones dealing with wild weather swings.  Just look at the World Championships in Are.  Heavy snow and single digits temps last week and now the R word and temps into the 40's.  And that is Sweden!!

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## ss20 (Feb 14, 2019)

gregnye said:


> I was there today. The naturals were pretty decent but the trees were horrible. At least "Chop Chop". More like Scrape-scrape on ice/rocks.



Careful what you say...trees skied fantastic yesterday.  Chop-chop is south-facing and had no coverage on it before this snow.  I was shocked to see a rock dropped on it.  i'm not suprised it skied like shit.  The majority of trees at K skied great (Low Rider, the Light, Somewhere/Nowhere, even low stuff like the Stairs).  

Only the rockpiles (Julio, Anarchy, Bear trees, Royal Flush and that ridge) need snow now, the rest is in good shape.


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## kingslug (Feb 14, 2019)

machski said:


> And this differs from most seasons how exactly?
> 
> Yeah..your right..just watching the weather channel too much lately...


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## Smellytele (Feb 14, 2019)

tnt1234 said:


> Josh Fox calling Friday 3-6" above 2000'.....



Cannon is showing it should stay snow toward the summit 1-3. Base shows some r@!^ over night Friday


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## Robbski (Feb 14, 2019)

Grab your passport and keep driving.  Le Massif reports 60 cm of new snow w/ more in the way.  I’m Headed up to QC on Sunday to ski there and Mont. Ste. Anne.


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## kingslug (Feb 14, 2019)

All N VT reports seem good..A foot helped..more on the way.


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## del.hess.1 (Feb 14, 2019)

kingslug said:


> All N VT reports seem good..A foot helped..more on the way.


 Burke reporting 16". Hopefully it's all snow (none of the r word) on the hill this weekend.  I'll be there with my kids on Monday 

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## mulva (Feb 14, 2019)

ss20 said:


> Careful what you say...trees skied fantastic yesterday.  Chop-chop is south-facing and had no coverage on it before this snow.  I was shocked to see a rock dropped on it.  i'm not suprised it skied like shit.  The majority of trees at K skied great (Low Rider, the Light, Somewhere/Nowhere, even low stuff like the Stairs).
> 
> Only the rockpiles (Julio, Anarchy, Bear trees, Royal Flush and that ridge) need snow now, the rest is in good shape.



Royal Flush with rocks poking through everywhere and thin cover is still some good shit though.


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## ss20 (Feb 14, 2019)

mulva said:


> Royal Flush with rocks poking through everywhere and thin cover is still some good shit though.



Very true.  One of my favorite trails on the mountain.  Noce consistent high-black pitch.


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## tnt1234 (Feb 14, 2019)

Smellytele said:


> Cannon is showing it should stay snow toward the summit 1-3. Base shows some r@!^ over night Friday



Dang.  Magic is only about 2800' at the summit.  Wonder if they will get rain.


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## tnt1234 (Feb 14, 2019)

Robbski said:


> Grab your passport and keep driving.  Le Massif reports 60 cm of new snow w/ more in the way.  I’m Headed up to QC on Sunday to ski there and Mont. Ste. Anne.



Been there, done that.  Totally worth it.  But can't swing 10 hrs. each way this time.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 14, 2019)

tnt1234 said:


> Dang.  Magic is only about 2800' at the summit.  Wonder if they will get rain.



If the predicted temperatures hold, they'll see some rain.  There's only so many degrees Fahrenheit that elevation can overcome.


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## kingslug (Feb 14, 2019)

Jay looks to be the winner this week..


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## tnt1234 (Feb 14, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> If the predicted temperatures hold, they'll see some rain.  There's only so many degrees Fahrenheit that elevation can overcome.



Bummer.  Just saw the black lift might be down for the weekend too.

My luck with Magic is just plain cursed.  Every time I plan a day there something goes wrong.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 14, 2019)

tnt1234 said:


> Bummer.  Just saw the black lift might be down for the weekend too.
> 
> My luck with Magic is just plain cursed.  Every time I plan a day there something goes wrong.



Black lift was going to run?   They only run that every other chair, and franlky it's sketchy-as-hell anyway so that wouldnt factor into my decision.

  If the models are right they'd see maybe 5 hours of light rain and then the dropping < 32 temps.   Is that enough to turn it icy?  I have no idea.


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## tnt1234 (Feb 14, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> Black lift was going to run?   They only run that every other chair, and franlky it's sketchy-as-hell anyway so that wouldnt factor into my decision.
> 
> If the models are right they'd see maybe 5 hours of light rain and then the dropping < 32 temps.   Is that enough to turn it icy?  I have no idea.



really hard to say....sometimes that's not the end of the world.


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## catskillman (Feb 14, 2019)

The Hunter blogsite states that "Ticket sales people told me that the pre-holiday sales are off the charts so expect some monster crowds."

not that I expected anything different.  You won't see me there this weekend......


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 14, 2019)

If you're skiing Hunter on PDW Saturday, you're a person whose life choices probably result in crowds being the least of your worries.


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## kingslug (Feb 14, 2019)

The North side would be interesting...to watch.


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## catskillman (Feb 14, 2019)

kingslug said:


> The North side would be interesting...to watch.



Not from the slopes - to dangerous   from a set of bleachers or a copter would be ideal !


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## kingslug (Feb 14, 2019)

Pretty much what i meant lol...
Will look like a scene from Rollerball


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## JimG. (Feb 14, 2019)

Killington was excellent today. Packed powder everywhere and still plenty of untracked snow too. Naturals and trees were amazing today maybe my best day of the season so far and that's really saying a lot, it's been a banner season.

I was amazed but glad I'm here for tomorrow too.


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## kingslug (Feb 14, 2019)

Reports show super windy for points north tomorrow..hope im not stuck..watching ski movies..


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## skimagic (Feb 14, 2019)

kingslug said:


> Reports show super windy for points north tomorrow..hope im not stuck..watching ski movies..


 
Anyone know if the Mt snow bubble is affected by high south to southwsst wind, sustained at 30 mph predicted.


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## drjeff (Feb 14, 2019)

skimagic said:


> Anyone know if the Mt snow bubble is affected by high south to southwsst wind, sustained at 30 mph predicted.


30 isn't an issue for the bubble. SW is usually OK as well. Usually it's a true S or SE that presents more of a problem. 

I hope the Bluebird is running normally tomorrow, or else, while I'm at work, I'll have to listen to multiple texts from my wife and son who are up at Mount Snow now, about how it isn't running tomorrow... 

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using AlpineZone mobile app


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## lerops (Feb 14, 2019)

I am guessing Sugarbush should be fine this long weekend even if they get a little r*** tomorrow. Would regulars agree? Or non-regulars? [emoji3]


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## cdskier (Feb 14, 2019)

lerops said:


> I am guessing Sugarbush should be fine this long weekend even if they get a little r*** tomorrow. Would regulars agree? Or non-regulars? [emoji3]



Yes, I would expect they will be relatively fine. I think worst case scenario they see some mixing or maybe r* at the base. Upper elevations could potentially stay all snow. If they're lucky, the snow line extends down closer to the base. No matter what, I don't think there's enough non-frozen precip to make a big impact.


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## Glenn (Feb 15, 2019)

It'll be interesting to see how traffic is tonight. It was pretty heavy on 91 north and south last night in the Hartford area and south. Wondering if a number of people left early to head north.


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## The Sneak (Feb 15, 2019)

Supposed to ski Berkshire East tmrw, it's going to frzng rain til noon then rain til 10 PM per forecast. How will conditions be tmrw?


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## kingslug (Feb 15, 2019)

Snowing at K..decided not to risk wind closures at Stowe


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## tnt1234 (Feb 15, 2019)

Well, this has been a fun thread - I hope everyone's plans work out just perfect!

I'll be at Magic or Okemo tomorrow and Sunday. 

Have fun everyone.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 15, 2019)

It's still early, but so far I'm noticing real world temps on the leading edge are a bit warmer than modeled temps, which isn't good if we're hoping for elevation to keep it all snow.


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## drjeff (Feb 15, 2019)

Snowing and winds are "nothing out of the ordinary" at Mount Snow per my wife this morning. She says that Plummet and Big Dipper have been her favorites so far....


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## kingslug (Feb 15, 2019)

Vis went tto shit here..snow is damn good though


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 15, 2019)

kingslug said:


> Vis went tto shit here..snow is damn good though



The good news is, it was supposed to start raining around 1pm, and that isnt happening yet in n.VT.  Rainline currently ends just east of BTV.


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## Jully (Feb 15, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> The good news is, it was supposed to start raining around 1pm, and that isnt happening yet in n.VT.  Rainline currently ends just east of BTV.



Radar is showing a nice transition to snow still. Southern NH (not that this was ever in question to not) is getting pure rain though.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 15, 2019)

Jully said:


> Radar is showing a nice transition to snow still.




Speaking of radar, if you're driving through Vermont today, either don't speed too much or have your radar detector working, there just might be numerous speed traps in place.


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## skifree (Feb 15, 2019)

no shit. last few years i'm driving on eggshells in ski country.
the wild west days are over.


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## kingslug (Feb 15, 2019)

Raining in town of Stowe


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 15, 2019)

skifree said:


> no shit. last few years i'm driving on eggshells in ski country.
> the wild west days are over.



Tonight will be aggressive.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 15, 2019)

Most crowded I've ever seen the rest stop just north of the Cats.


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## tnt1234 (Feb 15, 2019)

kingslug said:


> Raining in town of Stowe



raining in manchester.


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## kingslug (Feb 15, 2019)

Snowing at Stowe now


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## tnt1234 (Feb 15, 2019)

okemo summit cam looks like snow.

I guess we'll wait for teh am reports and make a call...


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## slatham (Feb 15, 2019)

tnt1234 said:


> okemo summit cam looks like snow.
> 
> I guess we'll wait for teh am reports and make a call...



At Bromley we had 1 1/2” this morning. Nothing during day. The a sprinkle or two as front came in but quickly to snow but just a dusting. No rain. Did get a bit warm mid 30’s for s few hours but by 9 was below freezing again.


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## kingslug (Feb 16, 2019)

5 inches in 24 hrs at Stowe..
Windy as a mofo...though


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## urungus (Feb 16, 2019)

kingslug said:


> 5 inches in 24 hrs at Stowe..
> Windy as a mofo...though



And yet Upper Starr/Liftline/National/Goat all closed, even though Smuggs, MRG, and Sugarbush are 100% open.  Heading up to northern Vermont tomorrow but guess I will be skipping Stowe.


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## kingslug (Feb 16, 2019)

Yeah..lot of closures..lot of ice but thats the usual for the tops of the front 4...welcome to Vail
And the dont ski the woods signs are a nice touch


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## kingslug (Feb 16, 2019)

Going to SB tomorrow


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## Glenn (Feb 16, 2019)

We came up this AM...smooth sailing. How was the volume on the roads Friday evening?


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## Kleetus (Feb 16, 2019)

Gore was surprisingly good today. Top 1/2 of the mountain and the woods skiied great. Bottom a little crusty but still good. 

Giving Whiteface a shot tomorrow.

Sent from my SM-G892A using AlpineZone mobile app


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 16, 2019)

Glenn said:


> We came up this AM...smooth sailing. How was the volume on the roads Friday evening?



Packed until after the Cats.  RIP if you know someone who was at Hunter or Belleayre today.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 16, 2019)

kingslug said:


> welcome to Vail
> And the dont ski the woods signs are a nice touch



There are actual signs?    I cant believe they put out FB & TWTR warnings telling people not to ski the woods.  I know someone who skied the woods (which were 100% open) at Smuggs both days, and he said the woods were skiing great, and he was shocked when I told him Stowe closed their glades.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 16, 2019)

My PDW Saturday crowd avoidance strategy worked pretty well today.  Only problem is I'm tired as hell from skiing moguls all day.   I dont know if it's always like this, but 1/2 of the mountain at Mont Sutton was ungroomed and there were moguls on every trail.  Plentiful tree skiing too.  I assume the easier side of the mountain must have been groomed, but I never went over there.  From my wife's family in VT, it's literally the same drive time there as it is to Jay Peak, so I'll definitely be back.


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## Smellytele (Feb 16, 2019)

Cannon skied well today. Snow showers all day. Upper glades were great in the morning. Vista Way was the best upper mountain run. Front 5 weren't bad, Mittersil skied great as well. Biggest surprise of the day no crowds except in the lodge and just outside the lodge.


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## tnt1234 (Feb 16, 2019)

Had a great day at Magic.  Started out kinda f worried - the west side was really frozen, and not fun.  Skied some groomers and were kind of down on the day...then we saw someone boarding red kine under us,  Sounded great.  Skied that, Gonnif and,,,,I don't know, something left and right of that....and they were crazy good. 

Don't really understand it - one trail in either direction and things were frozen solid.  But these trails were great.  Red line in particular was an absolute blast.

So our first day at magic, we probably skied about 25% of the goods and we were totally stoked.

Was going to ski Okemo on my Epic pass tomorrow, but gonna o bromley instead. Only skiing a half day and this will save some drive time.  Plus, same elevation, so might not be frozen.


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## kingslug (Feb 16, 2019)

They didnt close the glades..but put signs saying there is a lot of ice under everything and skiing the woods is not recommended...pretty much lawyer speak..
I dont go in their alone so i cant say how it is in there..but the wind blew the snow somewhere...


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## tnt1234 (Feb 16, 2019)

kingslug said:


> They didnt close the glades..but put signs saying there is a lot of ice under everything and skiing the woods is not recommended...pretty much lawyer speak..
> I dont go in their alone so i cant say how it is in there..but the wind blew the snow somewhere...



Looks like most everything is open - how were the trails?


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## mulva (Feb 16, 2019)

Killington 100% open.  Skied laps on North Ridge, many on South Ridge, Fiddle and Thimble > Chunnel and Needles under the power lines.  Some Bear mtn woods also.  Everything skied well (South Ridge, Bear and Needles area especially) except an early morning run down Northstar which was okay/passable.  Lift lines not bad until South Ridge Quad broke which caused huge lines at Bear/Skye Peak Express.  Whatever, went over to Needles area which skied awesome and had no lines at all.  Gorgeous day after 11 AM.  Conditions and weather were fantastic.  It should hold for the next 2 days while I'm here.  Snow storms Thursday and Sunday???  Let's hope so......


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## kingslug (Feb 17, 2019)

Trails were as expected with a foot of snow over an ice base..the tops of the steeps were boiler plate but ok once past that. Theres a lot of snow up here and im pretty sure a lot of it went into the trees. The moguls were solid though..on the steeps but the low angle ones were ok. The middle of national was the deepest witj about a foot sitting in there. By 2 it was all getting skied off so i called it. 
Get there by 7 for 730 chair and you have the place mostly to yourself..then the hordes arrive.


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## kingslug (Feb 17, 2019)

At the Bush..fast and firm bluebird day


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## Glenn (Feb 17, 2019)

Headed back to the flatlands today. Saw a good number of people still heading north for a late long weekend.


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## gregnye (Feb 17, 2019)

Wildcat was wonderful yesterday! Soft bumps due to high elevation. Although it was the most crowded I have ever seen it (parking lots were at capacity), the crowd only was there from 9:45--Noon. And even at that they had the quad lift going really fast so the line was only around 6 minutes at it's max, which was back to "normal wildcat crowds" around noon.

Yesterday proved to me that a high-speed quad running at full speed (so greater than 1,000 ft/min) is more efficient than any 6-person/bubble lift. Even with the really high operating/loading speed and the 90 degree load, very few lift stoppages/mis-loads. Killington could learn a lot from this.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 17, 2019)

A lot of the reason why Wildcat doesn't suffer lift stopages like the major resorts is it tends to draw more experienced skiers.  

Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## Smellytele (Feb 17, 2019)

deadheadskier said:


> A lot of the reason why Wildcat doesn't suffer lift stopages like the major resorts is it tends to draw more experienced skiers.
> 
> Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app



Agreed


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## Kleetus (Feb 17, 2019)

Whiteface was great today. No woods in play really, but all the steeps were. Did get skied off by mid-day in the center of most trails, but sides were loaded with all that skied off snow. Nothing like skiing Skyward top to bottom (first 100ft of headwall excluded...always boilerplate)  and not hitting anything but hard pack or loose snow. Also, crowds were very minimal mid-mountain up. 

Conditions aside, spectacular views and weather today. No wind. Few high clouds. Comfortable temps. Killer views.

Sent from my SM-G892A using AlpineZone mobile app


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## Jully (Feb 17, 2019)

gregnye said:


> Wildcat was wonderful yesterday! Soft bumps due to high elevation. Although it was the most crowded I have ever seen it (parking lots were at capacity), the crowd only was there from 9:45--Noon. And even at that they had the quad lift going really fast so the line was only around 6 minutes at it's max, which was back to "normal wildcat crowds" around noon.
> 
> Yesterday proved to me that a high-speed quad running at full speed (so greater than 1,000 ft/min) is more efficient than any 6-person/bubble lift. Even with the really high operating/loading speed and the 90 degree load, very few lift stoppages/mis-loads. Killington could learn a lot from this.



It was slammed again today. They did not seem to have the quad running at full speed today too for some reason. People were going in and out of it all day. They also had ~20 carriers sitting on the rails not on the line. Not sure if that's always been there, I spent more time waiting in line today than I probably have in the past 3 years combined so I easily may have missed it.

The line ran maybe 12 minutes at it's peak today, but not super sure as when it extended beyond the queues I rode Tomcat for ~3 hours.

Conditions on the upper mountain, especially in the trees, were great. Little bit like frozen toothpaste on the lower mountain, but still great.


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## tnt1234 (Feb 17, 2019)

Had a great day at Bromley.  Soft bumps and a few glades....crowded, but whatever...

Also had my worst fall in a long time - ran the tip of my right ski into the edge of a rock in Avalance Glade and single effected, head of heels - just missed landing on a stump and smashing a tree.  Very lucky, but my shoulder still hurts.

And also, I broke my ski - same ski, but the edge blew out, so not sure if that was the cause.  I suspect skiing red line the day before loosed the edge up and it blew maybe from the force of the hit or from pounding bumps.  There was nothing wrong with the ski immediately after my fall.  Didn't notice it until the last round of the day....

Great weekend for us, but now I'm searching for new skis....


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## gregnye (Feb 18, 2019)

Jully said:


> They did not seem to have the quad running at full speed today too for some reason. People were going in and out of it all day. They also had ~20 carriers sitting on the rails not on the line. Not sure if that's always been there, I spent more time waiting in line today than I probably have in the past 3 years combined so I easily may have missed it.



Very weird. Yesterday it was running full speed and there was only one carrier not in operation. I wonder what happened.


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## kingslug (Feb 18, 2019)

7am and snowing at Stowe..and i got the mayors spot


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## 56fish (Feb 18, 2019)

nice :beer: 3" quick, still snowing at shop ... JP be nice right now


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## tnt1234 (Feb 18, 2019)

kingslug said:


> 7am and snowing at Stowe..and i got the mayors spot
> View attachment 24612



how was it???


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## shwilly (Feb 18, 2019)

SR was fantastic this long weekend. I'd have to call it the best weekend of the season so far. Friday night's precip didn't mess up the snow pack much at all. There were heavy powder leftovers all weekend, then another inch or...3? of fresh by midday today. I did several new-to-me lines and spotted a couple more. I barely had a non-tree run all long weekend except for traverses and going down to the lodge to pick up the kids.

The parking lots and stores were crowded, but not the slopes or lift lines. It was a weird combination.

I feel bad for my friends who visited last weekend for concrete and howling wind. The contrast between this weekend and last was extreme. I wanted to play hooky tomorrow, but my better half didn't feel she could blow off work.


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## kingslug (Feb 19, 2019)

Stowe was good until it got skied off. The snow didn't bond very well as it was super light but made a difference for sure. As long as you stayed on the low angle moguls it was OK. And start early. The tops of the front 4 were closed and early on the easiest glades in the place was closed??
 So no Goat and Chinclip for me but middle and lower National where fun. The top of Liftline became ..sporty.
A nice deathslide developed over at Spruce..poor kids were sliding to the bottom. OY. With more snow on the way things should shape up.
The trick is starting at 7:30.


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## slatham (Feb 19, 2019)

What were the crowds like at the big resorts? I heard a rumor Stratton had 10,000 - quoted as ticket sales but I am sure it was skier visits. Others? 

Bromley had a good crowd on Saturday and more on Sunday but nothing record breaking IMHO.


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## tnt1234 (Feb 19, 2019)

Magic sold about 900 tickets Saturday according to the ticket booth.


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## cdskier (Feb 19, 2019)

kingslug said:


> The trick is starting at 7:30.



Isn't starting when lifts open anywhere the trick (unless it is a day where it is snowing throughout the day and you get free refills)? It always boggles my mind when I see people just getting to the mountain at 11 or 12 on a weekend.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 19, 2019)

cdskier said:


> *It always boggles my mind when I see people just getting to the mountain at 11 or 12 on a weekend.*



You cant ski for 4 or 5 hours and be happy with that?


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## drjeff (Feb 20, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> You cant ski for 4 or 5 hours and be happy with that?


Skiing for 4 or 5hrs is perfectly fine. It's often though when the folks who show up at 10 or 11 to ski 4 or 5hrs and then complain that there's no good parking spaces, no table space in the lodge to boot up, the lift lines are long, the trails are scraped off, etc.....

Skiing/riding the closing 4 or 5hrs of the day is great, just don't complain about how one very often doesn't get the "benefits" that those who get there before the masses often do get

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using AlpineZone mobile app


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## cdskier (Feb 20, 2019)

drjeff said:


> Skiing for 4 or 5hrs is perfectly fine. It's often though when the folks who show up at 10 or 11 to ski 4 or 5hrs and then complain that there's no good parking spaces, no table space in the lodge to boot up, the lift lines are long, the trails are scraped off, etc.....
> 
> Skiing/riding the closing 4 or 5hrs of the day is great, just don't complain about how one very often doesn't get the "benefits" that those who get there before the masses often do get



This...exactly!


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## Smellytele (Feb 20, 2019)

Well if there has been a thaw freeze and the day will warm up starting late is better.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 20, 2019)

cdskier said:


> Isn't starting when lifts open anywhere the trick (unless it is a day where it is snowing throughout the day and you get free refills)? It always boggles my mind when I see people just getting to the mountain at 11 or 12 on a weekend.


Why? There are a million and one reasons why some folks aren't there early. 

*Don't live nearby
*Have young children 
*Have to work in the morning (more common with locals working in hospitality than you think) I worked split shifts all the time when working resorts as a ski bum at Stowe and elsewhere.
* Have young children
* Burnt out from the work week and want to sleep in. 
*Have young children
*Have snow removal to deal with in the morning

I personally try and get out as early as possible.  Doesn't always happen for a million+1 reasons.  Many of which are not completely in my control.  


Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## Glenn (Feb 20, 2019)

My wife and I will roll in around 10-11; usually on a Sunday. Crowds tend to dissipate after lunch. And often, you'll get a decent window from 11:30 to 1 while everyone eats lunch.


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## kingslug (Feb 20, 2019)

Stowe opens the earliest of any place I know. Most people won't get up that early to get a 7:30 chair. I 'm 6 miles away and get up 5:30...most people are snoozing at that hour. It gives me at least an hour of ...non crowds no matter the holiday.
And nothing is skied to shit yet. The tops of the steeps don't last that long at times. 
If its good I can get 8 hours in...


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## skiur (Feb 20, 2019)

Glenn said:


> My wife and I will roll in around 10-11; usually on a Sunday. Crowds tend to dissipate after lunch. And often, you'll get a decent window from 11:30 to 1 while everyone eats lunch.



And after 2:30 the mountain starts to empty out and you can ski right onto the lift.


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## cdskier (Feb 20, 2019)

deadheadskier said:


> Why? There are a million and one reasons why some folks aren't there early.
> 
> *Don't live nearby
> *Have young children
> ...



Perhaps I should have been more clear. I understand the reasons and that's fine...but too often those are the same people I hear complaining about all the things drjeff mentioned. There are some people that get there at noon and are surprised they have to park far away. Or they are surprised there's no cord left and blame the mountain for not doing a good job grooming. Or they are surprised the powder that fell last night has already been skied off the bumps. Or they are surprised the mountain is crowded. If you're not getting there early, then you need to set your expectations accordingly and not complain about things that naturally are going to occur as the day goes on at a ski area. If you accept that, then by all means, go ahead and start at noon if that's what works best for you.

To some other people's points, yes, there are times when skiing later is better (i.e. spring skiing or thaw/freeze days where warming temps throughout the day will help conditions). But those are usually not the majority of days.


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## Jully (Feb 20, 2019)

cdskier said:


> Perhaps I should have been more clear. I understand the reasons and that's fine...but too often those are the same people I hear complaining about all the things drjeff mentioned. There are some people that get there at noon and are surprised they have to park far away. Or they are surprised there's no cord left and blame the mountain for not doing a good job grooming. Or they are surprised the powder that fell last night has already been skied off the bumps. Or they are surprised the mountain is crowded. If you're not getting there early, then you need to set your expectations accordingly and not complain about things that naturally are going to occur as the day goes on at a ski area. If you accept that, then by all means, go ahead and start at noon if that's what works best for you.
> 
> To some other people's points, yes, there are times when skiing later is better (i.e. spring skiing or thaw/freeze days where warming temps throughout the day will help conditions). But those are usually not the majority of days.



Wow, I'm not sure I've ever heard of people complaining like that before. That's wild and hilarious. If you like groomers, you need to be prepared to ski from 8-9:30 on a weekend before lovely eastern hardpack shows through.

Parking is a mixed bag though, especially on Sundays if I show up at 11 or later, I can usually park closer than if I arrived at 9:30.


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## machski (Feb 20, 2019)

Jully said:


> Parking is a mixed bag though, especially on Sundays if I show up at 11 or later, I can usually park closer than if I arrived at 9:30.



Yup, at SR the preferred parking rows open up after 11 as a first come, first served.  Since those are roped off for only those paying for the benefit early and thus blocking all others from the closest parking, you can definitely score the closest parking later.  Just have to time it right [emoji6]

Sent from my Pixel 3 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## abc (Feb 20, 2019)

Bottom line, there're a lot of people on the mountain overall. But they move in a certain pattern. So if you move anti-pattern, you CAN find windows of time to enjoy the mountain without having to deal with the big crowd. 

Whether that window is early in the morning or late in the afternoon, it's up to the individual to choose. 

For me, I'm happy for those who show up on first chair and leave at 11. I do take advantage of that. I'm not a big groomer cruiser. So the "freshly groomed corduroy" doesn't hold as much appeal to me as it does to some here. 

Unless of course, if it snows overnight, then I'll be the one who's at the first chair and may leave by 11!


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## GregoryIsaacs (Feb 20, 2019)

Its Wed can we start speculating about this weekends conditions already! Hoping to hit Jay on Saturday think it'll be worth the trip from Boston? These wintry mix storms need to end ASAP


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## kingslug (Feb 20, 2019)

Showing a decent amount for N VT in the coming days..hoping its a little heavier than the last..and sticks!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 20, 2019)

Yeah, I have to say I find the myriad of these "benefits" listed by the early birds as mostly imaginary & in their head, with the exception of powder days, obviously.    

In fact, unless you show up _BEFORE_ the joint opens, I actually think showing up around first chair is perhaps the most stressful time to show up to ski and frankly, I dislike it.   It's crowded, somewhat rude, & hectic with all the high blood pressure, _"we must be FIRST"_ sort of people here speaking of these imaginary perceived benefits. LOL


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## kingslug (Feb 20, 2019)

Not at Stowe..very mellow. A 9am start would be different though. Only thing is ...it fucking freezing that early...


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## cdskier (Feb 20, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> In fact, unless you show up _BEFORE_ the joint opens, I actually think showing up around first chair is perhaps the most stressful time to show up to ski and frankly, I dislike it.   It's crowded, somewhat rude, & hectic with all the high blood pressure, _"we must be FIRST"_ sort of people here speaking of these imaginary perceived benefits. LOL



Crowded? I've had quite the opposite experience. It is pretty empty at Sugarbush at 8AM (unless it is a powder day...then it can be a zoo no question about it).

On a typical weekend day (non holiday, non-powder) at Lincoln Peak you'll have maybe a dozen or two people standing in line at Super Bravo for first chair. At Mt Ellen you'll often have just a handful of people if that. I find the time skiing from 8AM until about 10AM incredibly relaxing as I can often just keep doing laps with lifts that are virtually ski on.


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