# The Official 12/1-12/2 Storm Discussion Thread



## awf170 (Nov 28, 2006)

I thought it was going to be almost all rain until I saw this.  

http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewforum.php?f=2

Come on storm. Track right off Cape Cod!

It still looks like a pretty distant hope, but I'm still willing to jump on it.


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## Zand (Nov 28, 2006)

Oh boy, here we go. 

Definitely looking better than it was early in the week. Who knows, maybe it'll track so far east we'll get some signifigant measureable for all of NE. 

They're also starting to get all antsy about a possible storm Monday.


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## awf170 (Nov 28, 2006)

Zand said:


> Oh boy, here we go.
> 
> Definitely looking better than it was early in the week. Who knows, maybe it'll track so far east we'll get some signifigant measureable for all of NE.
> 
> They're also starting to get all antsy about a possible storm Monday.



I have school off Thusday.  It better be epic where ever I go.  If all goes as planned I will be skiing Sunday, Monday, and Thursday.  Come on snow!


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## Zand (Nov 28, 2006)

I don't have any school off until Christmas and I don't plan on skipping this early in the season either. I'm gonna miss plenty of days this winter for ski trips and then a week in April for Florida so I need to go now. I also don't think I'll be able to get beyond Wachusett until Christmas so hopefully this storm sets up some good stuff for next week.


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## thebigo (Nov 28, 2006)

starting to look more promising, earlier today the noaa forecast for kmart was calling for r#in mixing to snow. tonight it is claiming 'snow likely' for friday (60%) and friday night (70%).

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/Ma...lat=43.182917&smap=1&mp=0&map.x=136&map.y=103


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## TwinTips21 (Nov 29, 2006)

Actually now the NWS is saying most if not all rain. Haven't had a chance to look at the models but it must be tracking west.


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## thetrailboss (Nov 29, 2006)

At last check it was tracking more east....


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## ajl50 (Nov 29, 2006)

the midnight and 6am NAM and GFS have are in agreement with the Low passing right over lake placid. This is good news because with 4 forecast models moving the track east I feel good that we'll see some nice snows frida-sat. Will be a rain changing to snow event and should allow for some nice base building. After it passes there will be 10 days of below normal temps for snowmaking and mountain snow showers.


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## Kerovick (Nov 29, 2006)

WOO WOO, Slam Lake placid!!  Whiteface need the snow!


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## shneedemon (Nov 29, 2006)

Well, I'm new here but for my first post I want to say that it's a toss up and your better off spending your time watching the Stock Market.


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## Kerovick (Nov 29, 2006)

I guy can hope can't he?


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## Grassi21 (Nov 29, 2006)

shneedemon said:


> Well, I'm new here but for my first post I want to say that it's a toss up and your better off spending your time watching the Stock Market.



I work for a financial software company.  I would prefer tracking a storm over the market any day.  I bet most here at AZ would do the same.


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## ajl50 (Nov 29, 2006)

We want the low to pass right over the catskills and then south of Kmart if we want lake placid snow. That has a 60% chance right now.


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## Greg (Nov 29, 2006)

First "Official" thread of 2006-07! Nice. Hopefully it becomes a long one with many reports of high snow totals!


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## Paul (Nov 29, 2006)

Greg said:


> First "Official" thread of 2006-07! Nice. Hopefully it becomes a long one with many reports of high snow totals!



And spawns numerous offspring!


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## ajl50 (Nov 29, 2006)

Look to start one for monday 12/4- to 12/5
Reports are coming in that models have eastern seabord storm. Been floating around for a while now...I'll start one when i see some more positive signs.


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## Greg (Nov 29, 2006)

ajl50 said:


> I'll start one when i see some more positive signs.



Yeah, just a reminder - these "official threads" should only be started if a storm is truly imminent and should be used to discuss an impending storm in the day or two prior to it as well as to post various reports on snowfall totals. Keep in mind that you're free to start a "storm speculation" type thread, and a mod or I may retitle it to an "official" thread if the event appears very likely.


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## andyzee (Nov 29, 2006)

I've got low pressure between my ears.


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## hammer (Nov 29, 2006)

ajl50 said:


> Look to start one for monday 12/4- to 12/5
> Reports are coming in that models have eastern seabord storm. Been floating around for a while now...I'll start one when i see some more positive signs.


That's the one that has more promise for some CP...want to start a speculation thread?


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## billski (Nov 29, 2006)

*hey, hey lookee the snow out my front door!!!*








today, but uh, one year ago :smash:

Scared ya huh???


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## ctenidae (Nov 29, 2006)

billski said:


> today, but uh, one year ago :smash:
> 
> Scared ya huh???



A picture from today for comparison would be scarier.


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## billski (Nov 29, 2006)

ctenidae said:


> A picture from today for comparison would be scarier.


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## from_the_NEK (Nov 29, 2006)

Ahhhhhhhh!!!
uke: uke: uke: :blink: :blink: :blink:


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## ajl50 (Nov 29, 2006)

you can ski that. 
I'm glad that "webcam" thread has been buried. I can't handle the horror. 
Bump it back up when it's cold enough to produce frost


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## SnowRider (Nov 29, 2006)

You jinxed it...you have to at least change the title to "maybe snow" or sumtin


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## ajl50 (Nov 29, 2006)

me?


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## TwinTips21 (Nov 29, 2006)

The GFS is confusing me!


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## Zand (Nov 29, 2006)

This afternoon's Burlington NWS discussion:

FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY FOLLOWED GFS/ECMWF SOLN WHICH SUGGESTS THE SFC
LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL REACH THE MOHAWK
VLY OF NY BY 00Z SATURDAY...AND THEN TRACK TO NEAR PORTLAND ME BY
06Z SATURDAY. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT IF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR IS
NEAR FREEZING...THAT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...AHEAD OF THE MAIN QG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM CYCLONE. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG
WAA SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE FA...POSSIBLY HVY AT
TIMES WITH QPF 1-1.5". THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL THEN
DETERMINE THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF SNOW THAT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AT
THE TAIL END OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. CERTAINLY...STRENGTH OF UPWARD MOTION SUGGESTS DYNAMIC
COOLING AND LATENT PROCESSES COULD AID IN TRANSITION FROM R+ TO S+
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE TIME FRAME FRIDAY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VLY AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. DURING FRIDAY EVENING...A CHANGE TO
SNOW IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE FOR A FEW HRS BEFORE TAPERING TO A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS LATE. IT/S STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT A PERIOD OF HVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WILL UPDATE THE SPECIAL WX
STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS WINTER WX POTENTIAL.


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## TwinTips21 (Nov 29, 2006)

AJL 50, did you study meteorology? Anyway what are the latest runs of the gfs and nam looking like in your perception?


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## klrskiah (Nov 29, 2006)

So basically the storm has moved further west again which = more r@#$. :angry: 
It probably will change again anyway, but either way at least it will get cold.


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## klrskiah (Nov 29, 2006)

TwinTips21 said:


> AJL 50, did you study meteorology? Anyway what are the latest runs of the gfs and nam looking like in your perception?



When looking at GFS or NAM what number is the most current model?? 

it seems like the GFS brings the low up along the Maine coast, but the NAM has a wierd split low thing with one up over quebec.  which do you think is more likely?


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## andyzee (Nov 29, 2006)

*Tonight
Nov 29*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Cloudy                                                                                                                                                                                                                *N/A*/42°                                                                                                                                                               10%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	



High not valid after 2pm
*Thu
Nov 30*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Few Showers                                                                                                                                                                                                                *59°*/47°                                                                                                                                                               30%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	


*59°F*
*Fri
Dec 1*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Rain                                                                                                                                                                                                                *47°*/31°                                                                                                                                                               80%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	


*47°F*
*Sat
Dec 2*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Few Snow Showers / Wind                                                                                                                                                                                                                *34°*/24°                                                                                                                                                               30%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	


*34°F*
*Sun
Dec 3*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Few Snow Showers *36°*/25°                                                                                                                                                               30%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	


*36°F*
*Mon
Dec 4*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Snow Shower *34°*/17°                                                                                                                                                               40%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	


*34°F*
*Tue
Dec 5*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Partly Cloudy                                                                                                                                                                                                                *28°*/20°                                                                                                                                                               10%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	


*28°F*
*Wed
Dec 6*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Few Snow Showers *36°*/20°                                                                                                                                                               30%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	


*36°F*
*Thu
Dec 7*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Few Snow Showers *35°*/21°                                                                                                                                                               30%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	


*35°F*
*Fri
Dec 8*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Rain / Snow *32°*/20°                                                                                                                                                               60%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	


*32°F*


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## ajl50 (Nov 29, 2006)

"AJL 50, did you study meteorology? Anyway what are the latest runs of the gfs and nam looking like in your perception?"
Nope - I just read about it and follow it closely because I'm bored at law school and love skiing. 
The GFS and the NAM and many other forecast models can be found here:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
the GFS and the NAM come out 4 times a day. People argue over which runs are the most accurate. I don't have an opinion one way or the other because of how fast weather changes. 
Also - kill time reading all the climate prediction center stuff on the NAO and the PNA.  These weather patterns give us storms and cold respectively. 
Right now- I throw all the forecasts out for the north country because the weather computers never do a good job there.  My guy tells me the following for the Kmart to Whiteface area- rain heavy before the front comes through, then a change over, some accumulation - 4 inches would be the best- and then a super hard freeze.


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## bassist286 (Nov 29, 2006)

i think at this point, we'd be apreachiative of anything, including just come cold weather in general.


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## ajl50 (Nov 30, 2006)

Well cold weather is coming for the north country.


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## wintersyndrome (Nov 30, 2006)

Model Maps From wunderground

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US


> My guy tells me the following for the Kmart to Whiteface area- rain heavy before the front comes through, then a change over, some accumulation - 4 inches would be the best- and then a super hard freeze.



sounds like typical NE winter weather-gotta love it


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## thebigo (Nov 30, 2006)

any of you weather guys have an opinion as to which northeast areas will see the least r#in?

specifically im deciding between killington and sugarloaf for saturday.


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## Greg (Nov 30, 2006)

thebigo said:


> any of you weather guys have an opinion as to which northeast areas will see the least r#in?



This is indeed a sad question to be asking for early December. Isn't it supposed to be "which northeast areas will see the *most snow*?"


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## thebigo (Nov 30, 2006)

> This is indeed a sad question to be asking for early December. Isn't it supposed to be "which northeast areas will see the most snow?"



Good point, hadnt thought about it that way but the cold is coming. I just got off the phone with a guy in arkansas and he said the temp dropped 30 degrees in the last three hours.


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## thetrailboss (Nov 30, 2006)

Fairbanks calling for highs in the 50's-60's today, and then thunderstorms tomorrow.  :roll: :angry:  Typical December weather I guess.  :roll:


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## JD (Nov 30, 2006)

Chicago looking at 10-15 inches.  I'm liking the projected storm track right now for Northern NE.  Might wanna travel friday afternoon, Sat. AM could be slow going from points south.


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## JimG. (Nov 30, 2006)

JD said:


> Chicago looking at 10-15 inches.  I'm liking the projected storm track right now for Northern NE.  Might wanna travel friday afternoon, Sat. AM could be slow going from points south.



Travel where?

Utah?


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## ctenidae (Nov 30, 2006)

Progress across the Southern Tier-

My dad in Arkansas:

_hot here too, supposed to be in 20's tonight---highs today forecast at 35 in fayettenam to 64 in eldorado--talked to client who was pheasanting in kansas, went from 70 to 17 in 10 hrs---sounds like pneumonia time and my thumb says some shit is on its way_

My brother in eastern Tennessee:
_its been hot as shit here for 5 days. I say hot, meaning 75...but it
is late November. We had 2 days of snow once, two weeks ago, resorts
here are crying. Its raining now, a thunderstorm actually, still 70
degrees_


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## awf170 (Nov 30, 2006)

thetrailboss said:


> Fairbanks calling for highs in the 50's-60's today, and then thunderstorms tomorrow.  :roll: :angry:  Typical December weather I guess.  :roll:



Anyone else think we should take Trailboss' :roll: privilages away?  I think you average atleast two per post.  You always find a way to bring out the bright side of things...


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## thetrailboss (Nov 30, 2006)

awf170 said:


> Anyone else think we should take Trailboss' :roll: privilages away?  I think you average atleast two per post.  You always find a way to bring out the bright side of things...



I tell the truth, Austin.  I don't B.S.  And the truth ain't so good for tomorrow's weather.  But it does get better.


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## thetrailboss (Nov 30, 2006)

....and since I do such a great job "bringing out the bright side of things" as you say, here goes.  This just in:  



			
				NWS said:
			
		

> Special Weather Statement
> 
> NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON- SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX- SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE- WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE- CALEDONIA- WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE- WESTERN RUTLAND- WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON- EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE... PLATTSBURGH... STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA... LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA... OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM... GOUVERNEUR... ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS... NEWPORT... ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON... JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY... MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES... BRADFORD...RANDOLPH... RUTLAND... SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION... ENOSBURG FALLS... RICHFORD... UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD... KILLINGTON 337 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006
> 
> ...


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## klrskiah (Nov 30, 2006)

> SYNOPSIS...
> A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND STALL OVER THE
> GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT
> FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING SNOW TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND MAINLY RAIN
> ...



This is for the areas just north of Sugarloaf, sounds like a slightly more southern track could bring much more "frozen precip"


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## JD (Dec 1, 2006)

"several inches possible over higher terrain"
from NOAA for friday eve.


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## thetrailboss (Dec 1, 2006)

JD said:


> "several inches possible over higher terrain"
> from NOAA for friday eve.




I like that one!  :beer:


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## Greg (Dec 1, 2006)

December 1 and we have a tornado *warning*. :-o


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