# Theory for warm winter - Was it the Sunami?



## Abubob (Mar 21, 2012)

Henry Margusity's Sunami theory:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/heavy-thunderstorms-why-so-warm/62999



> I may be nuts but I been trying to figure out why this winter was so warm and why the spring is now just amazingly warm. I stumbled upon something that may or may not be relevant. Below is an image of the Pacific Ocean's temperature anomalies and the debris field from the tsunami that hit a year ago. Notice how the two match up almost perfectly. The theory is that the debris floating in the Pacific caused a large area of warm water in the north Pacific, understanding that the ocean and atmosphere are coupled so if one changes the other changes; i.e. La Nina and El Nino's as perfect examples. So, if that area of the Pacific is warmed it will cause a natural boundary for storms to develop along. The last 90-day storm tracks show many of the Pacific storms developed right along that zone. In regards to the jet stream, instead of getting the typical split flow during the La Nina we had a roaring zonal flow across the north Pacific which basically did not allow the jet to buckle across the eastern part of the country and disrupted any blocking. So that's my theory. Maybe it's nonsense but it seems to have some merit.


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## WinnChill (Mar 21, 2012)

Wow, never heard that one.  The warm pool in the Pacific started forming about a _full year before_ the earthquake/tsunami, so my initial reaction is it had nothing to do with the debris field.  Even then, the warm pool is contrasted by the significant cold pool in the Gulf of Alaska--hence their unusually stormy/cold winter.


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## speden (Mar 21, 2012)

Interesting theory, but hard to imagine the relatively small amount of debris having such a major effect.

Reminds me of the old proverb:

For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the message was lost.
For want of a message the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.


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## Abubob (Mar 21, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Wow, never heard that one.  The warm pool in the Pacific started forming about a _full year before_ the earthquake/tsunami, so my initial reaction is it had nothing to do with the debris field.  Even then, the warm pool is contrasted by the significant cold pool in the Gulf of Alaska--hence their unusually stormy/cold winter.



It took months for the debris to spread that far. If the debris didn't cause the anomalous high temps what did?


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## WinnChill (Mar 22, 2012)

Abubob said:


> It took months for the debris to spread that far. If the debris didn't cause the anomalous high temps what did?



These cold/warm pools get sloshed around amid other large scale temperature shifts, mainly due to shifting ocean currents and large scale upper air patterns.  More noteworthy was/is the anomolous colder water in the Gulf of Alaska that helped anchor a strong vortex over Alaska--that in turn forced ridging over part of the US and disrupted the storm track.  What was already a marginal storm pattern for us due to La Nina was knocked off a little more due to that.  There are a lot of moving parts and configurations that affect seasonal patterns--one cannot pin seasonal anomalies on just one thing.


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## Abubob (Mar 22, 2012)

Its all fairly unprecedented is it not? I don't think you can discount the factor the debris had. Anything floating on the surface would increase evaporation and many things over a vast area must have an effect. Still, what you say about the cold water and vortex is true and the debris field by itself didn't cause the pattern change. Could it be that these three occurrences together ended changing the overall pattern more than what would be expected? More data is needed to see if Henry's theory is viable. It will be interesting to see if more information is available in time.


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## Puck it (Mar 22, 2012)

Mayan calendar is more like it!


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## Cannonball (Mar 22, 2012)

Me buying powder skis at the start of the season appears to be a factor.


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## Abubob (Mar 22, 2012)

Puck it said:


> Mayan calendar is more like it!





Cannonball said:


> Me buying powder skis at the start of the season appears to be a factor.



So ... We're working on FIVE factors? I also bought some backcountry equipment. SIX factors? I'm surprised it wasn't 80 in January.


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## WinnChill (Mar 22, 2012)

Abubob said:


> Its all fairly unprecedented is it not? I don't think you can discount the factor the debris had. Anything floating on the surface would increase evaporation and many things over a vast area must have an effect. Still, what you say about the cold water and vortex is true and the debris field by itself didn't cause the pattern change. Could it be that these three occurrences together ended changing the overall pattern more than what would be expected? More data is needed to see if Henry's theory is viable. It will be interesting to see if more information is available in time.



Not really.  Just going back a little ways, March 2001, for example, had very similar ocean temps in that region.  I'm sure there are other years, I just can't remember all of them.  If his theory has merit, great--I just don't believe debris can affect ocean temperatures on that large of a scale.


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## Cannonball (Mar 22, 2012)

The tsunami debris is <25million tons.  The Pacific Garbage Patch is ~100million tons.  One why to judge the climatological effects of the tsunami debris would be in comparison to the much longer term trends of the garbage patch and Pacific weather patterns.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 22, 2012)

The most amazing thing about the global heat map, is that the ONLY warm place in the ENTIRE friggin' world much of this winter was the eastern 1/2 of America.  

Everywhere else experienced generally below normal temps, thus I'm going with the highly scientific hypothesis of Murphy's Law.


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## gmcunni (Mar 22, 2012)

apparently the change in when DST is the cause


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## Abubob (Mar 22, 2012)

Crap! You're right! Right after Daylight savings kicked in it got very warm. Amazing genius to figure that out. 8)



gmcunni said:


> apparently the change in when DST is the cause


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## Cannonball (Mar 22, 2012)

That's BS Connie.  It's your G-damn hot springs!!!


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## jaja111 (Mar 22, 2012)

gmcunni said:


> apparently the change in when DST is the cause



When I saw this I felt so compelled to immediately drive to Arkansas, find Connie, and slowly choke the f-in life out of her while I explained that this, THIS is the punishment for stealing my oxygen.


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 23, 2012)

Exacerbates "Warning" or "Warming"? Proofread much?

AFAIC the editor in charge of approving Letters for print is just as bad as the person that wrote this.


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## St. Bear (Mar 23, 2012)

gmcunni said:


> apparently the change in when DST is the cause



This is just fantastic.


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## ZYDECORICH (Mar 23, 2012)

gmcunni said:


> apparently the change in when DST is the cause



Wow! This country gets real scary south of the Mason Dixon line.


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## legalskier (Mar 26, 2012)

Abubob said:


> Henry Margusity's Sunami theory:
> 
> http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/heavy-thunderstorms-why-so-warm/62999



Here's something else that floated across the Pacific-

_*Japanese fishing boat linked to earthquake, tsunami spotted off B.C. coast*
Published On Sat Mar 24 2012
VANCOUVER—A 54-meter-long fishing vessel linked to last year’s devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan has been spotted adrift off the British Columbia coast. *** As much as *five million tonnes of debris were swept into the ocean last March* when a massive magnitude-9 earthquake and resulting tsunami struck Japan._
Story: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/...earthquake-tsunami-spotted-off-b-c-coast?bn=1


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