# Fri Apr 3 to Sat Apr 4



## billski (Mar 31, 2015)

Got some wet stuff coming in for Friday, but No. VT could see appreciable snow on Saturday


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## billski (Mar 31, 2015)




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## catsup948 (Apr 1, 2015)

Canadian at 00z is a nice dump north, GFS is weaker.


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## xwhaler (Apr 1, 2015)

N NH into Western ME looks pretty good---come on elevation special! Hoping for some wet powder at Cannon on Saturday!


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 1, 2015)

I just need this come move about 4 hours faster than modeled, and my last day at Smuggs would be a powder day.  Fingers crossed.


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## ScottySkis (Apr 1, 2015)

I hoping and heading 20/feet s of light Utah snow all day

Gore any snow for Sunday ?


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## JonD (Apr 1, 2015)

I'll be at SR all weekend. Fingers crossed.


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## billski (Apr 1, 2015)

*Got Wax?*



BenedictGomez said:


> I last day at Smuggs would be a powder day.  Fingers crossed.



No need to tell you   it won't be powder.  It will be snow, heavy snow at that.  Got Wax?


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## yeggous (Apr 1, 2015)

xwhaler said:


> N NH into Western ME looks pretty good---come on elevation special! Hoping for some wet powder at Cannon on Saturday!



How busy will Cannon be on Saturday? I know that the tram will be closed and it will be Bode-Fest. I've never been there on this weekend.

I am committed to day tripping from home on Saturday since Sunday is zombie Jesus day. I'm going to chase the best compromise between drive time and fresh snow. Right now Cannon, Bretton Woods, Burke, Waterville Valley, and Killington are all on the short list.


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## Puck it (Apr 1, 2015)

yeggous said:


> How busy will Cannon be on Saturday? I know that the tram will be closed and it will be Bode-Fest. I've never been there on this weekend.
> 
> I am committed to day tripping from home on Saturday since Sunday is zombie Jesus day. I'm going to chase the best compromise between drive time and fresh snow. Right now Cannon, Bretton Woods, Burke, Waterville Valley, and Killington are all on the short list.


Stay away from Cannon it will be a zoo.


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## billski (Apr 1, 2015)

Puck it said:


> Stay away from Cannon it will be a zoo.


Can't speak for NH, but I can say that most all areas in Vermont are pretty mellow, few lines to speak of and lots of outdoor grilling, drinking and sun-tanning.


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## billski (Apr 1, 2015)

Gotta love it!


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## JDMRoma (Apr 1, 2015)

yeggous said:


> How busy will Cannon be on Saturday? I know that the tram will be closed and it will be Bode-Fest. I've never been there on this weekend.
> 
> I am committed to day tripping from home on Saturday since Sunday is zombie Jesus day. I'm going to chase the best compromise between drive time and fresh snow. Right now Cannon, Bretton Woods, Burke, Waterville Valley, and Killington are all on the short list.



Honestly last year it was only insane in the lodge, other than that it was pretty normal......


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## Puck it (Apr 1, 2015)

JDMRoma said:


> Honestly last year it was only insane in the lodge, other than that it was pretty normal......


Trails will be packed and no parking.


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## soulseller (Apr 2, 2015)

Some potential for Saturday:



			
				Josh Fox said:
			
		

> A strong cold front advances toward New England Friday night along with the 2nd piece of this storm. For a time it will remain a relatively weak low pressure center, but it will have a healthy amount of moisture and it will bring this moisture northeast out of the Plains as cold air descends southeast out of Canada. The storm will then strengthen very early Saturday and bomb off the New England coast later Saturday. Precipitation may remain rain for a few hours Friday night and then change to snow early Saturday around dawn. If the storm can deepen quickly Friday night, the snow could potentially be heavy for several hours and accumulate 6-10 inches by midday Saturday before tapering off during the afternoon. If the storm is slow to mature, we will be stuck with lighter snows.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 2, 2015)

Most recent model outputs of the GFS, Canadian, and NAM (4km) for northern Vermont yields 4", 2", and 5", of snow, respectively.

  BTV put out a blurb late yesterday that they think 6" to 7" is likely in the higher parts of the mountains.

I'll definitely be tuning into the 12z runs today.


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## 〽❄❅ (Apr 2, 2015)

^ TWC isn't showing much for the weekend, they have Monday night and Tuesday having the most potential.


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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)

Puck it said:


> Trails will be packed and no parking.


Sounds like the partee not to miss.  Chicks, Guys, flowing beer and top bands.  Shuttles from Portland, Providence, Boston, Hartford and Albany.  Woodstock on Ice!  Going to be EPIC.









Now, let me pack my bags for MRG.... 





April fools!


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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)

〽❄❅;900071 said:
			
		

> ^ TWC isn't showing much for the weekend, they have Monday night and Tuesday having the most potential.


  Forecast for paraonid flatlanders.

p.s., bias disclosed


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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Most recent model outputs of the GFS, Canadian, and NAM (4km) for northern Vermont yields 4", 2", and 5", of snow, respectively.
> 
> BTV put out a blurb late yesterday that they think 6" to 7" is likely in the higher parts of the mountains.
> 
> I'll definitely be tuning into the 12z runs today.



There's a business to be had sending out custom texts every time the model runs come out...


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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)

*Roger Hill April 2*


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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)

*Burlington, GFS run*


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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)

*RutVegas GFS run*


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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)

*Concord GFS run*


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## Vortex (Apr 2, 2015)

Sr looks like it might make out ok on this storm, the long range looks really good next week.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 2, 2015)

〽❄❅;900071 said:
			
		

> ^ TWC isn't showing much for the weekend



The weather channel can kiss my rear.  Hopefully more cable networks drop them.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 2, 2015)

12z GFS pretty much holds serve, would be maybe 5" ending before 1pm.

12z NAM comes in much better and faster, definitely a 6" or 7" deal, ending by 9am or so.

Canadian isnt out yet.

The unspoken thing with this though, is there's potential for much more.   The reason the models are only spitting out 3" to 7" is because it's too warm for snow Friday night into early Saturday morning, and some of the storm is wasted as rain:





But if the temps come in a bit colder than expected (wishcasting, but it sometimes happens) or there is a nice elevational effect, this would add approximately another 4" to 7", so then you'd be looking at something more like 9" to 12" total.  

In other weather news, it just stopped snowing here at Smuggs, but snowed for a good hour.  Never-ending winter!


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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> In other weather news, it just stopped snowing here at Smuggs, but snowed for a good hour.  Never-ending winter!



So BG, you're playing in the snow?   How is it?  dense?  wet?  what are the temps at elevation?  Inquiring minds want to know!


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 2, 2015)

billski said:


> *So BG, you're playing in the snow?   How is it?  *dense?  wet?  what are the temps at elevation?  Inquiring minds want to know!



Jay peak and Smuggs on Saturday and Sunday.  Good conditions, nothing fresh in trees, but they were ski-able and fun.  

Stowe on Tuesday with 4" fresh snow and it skied mid-winter'ish, everything was perfect.  Skied MRG yesterday for the first time, they also received 4" the day before so it was in nice shape there too.  Bottom line is, northern Vermont is the place to be right now.


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## HowieT2 (Apr 2, 2015)

NWS has lincoln peak at 3000' getting 6-10".  here's an excerpt of the discussion.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS A COLD RAIN 02-06Z
SATURDAY...BUT COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CAA AND DIABATIC EFFECTS
RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO WET SNOW 06-12Z SATURDAY...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z SAT. THERE WILL BE A LARGE ELEVATIONAL
DEPENDENCE TO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...AND MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATION IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE ON GRASSY
SURFACES...ETC...FOLLOWING THE WARMTH EXPECTED THRU THE DAY
FRIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.4-0.70"...HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO NERN VT. USING A 10:1 RATIO IN THE VALLEYS AND 14:1 ACROSS
THE SUMMITS...LOOKING AT A RANGE OF SNOWFALL AMTS FROM RANGING
FROM AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS...TO 1-3" IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO 3-7" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.
WILL NEED TO CONSIDER HEADLINES FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1000`...FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND N-
CENTRAL INTO NERN VT. SINCE SNOWFALL WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO
JUST A DEGREE OR SO IN PBL TEMPERATURES...


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## yeggous (Apr 2, 2015)

I might have to go to Jay on Saturday and Burke on Sunday. Grandma will be disappointed that I am missing Easter but a man needs to have priorities.


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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)

yeggous said:


> I might have to go to Jay on Saturday and Burke on Sunday. Grandma will be disappointed that I am missing Easter but a man needs to have priorities.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone mobile app


  You are flirting with fire young man.  Remember, ski season is going into May this year!


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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)

*The man speaketh!*


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## catsup948 (Apr 2, 2015)

Jay, the whites, Maine just get punished Saturday on the 18z GFS.


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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Jay, the whites, Maine just get punished Saturday on the 18z GFS.


So what else is there to know?  Just be careful going through the rain/snow transition when  you drive up.  I might just have to hang onto that JP voucher!


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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)




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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)




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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)




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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)




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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)

Check this out, April 6th:


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## billski (Apr 2, 2015)




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## BenedictGomez (Apr 3, 2015)

Models still consistent.  

06z GFS gives n.VT 5" or 6" ending sometime before 1pm, NAM is about 5" or 6" ending by 9am (yes please), and the Canadian gives practically nothing.  Anyone see the 00z pay-to-play Euro?     12z's should be coming out soon, but I'll be on the snow at that time.  Should be interesting conditions today given it's almost 50 out.


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## VTKilarney (Apr 3, 2015)

Here is a map from the Eye on the Sky folks at the Fairbanks Museum:


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 3, 2015)

12z NAM first in, looks great with better timing = less rain and a bit more snow, probably to 8", and ending right when the lifts open to boot.   

Of course, the NAM nearly always "looks great" and overdoes the snow totals, but I can dream.  

Heading out now to plunder some corn.


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## ScottySkis (Apr 3, 2015)

What think a lot rain for Catskills for Sunday a d rain or snow for gore for Sunday?


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## billski (Apr 3, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Heading out now to plunder some corn.


Please, no pics.  You're killin' me!

p.s., I'm planning to help close up the Loaf late this month...


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## billski (Apr 3, 2015)

ScottySkis said:


> What think a lot rain for Catskills for Sunday a d rain or snow for gore for Sunday?


Snows pull out of here by Sat. late.  Sunday is best chance for a non precip day.  Then light rain/snow during the week.

Reed da mappe...


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## Warp Daddy (Apr 3, 2015)

The Posse. Will Be at Titus tomorrow for thier last day ,,  looks like it IS in the sweet spot !


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 3, 2015)

Yikes, this really took a last minute turn for the worse. :-(  

Hopefully the 18z brings the higher totals back.


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## billski (Apr 3, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yikes, this really took a last minute turn for the worse.
> 
> Hopefully the 18z brings the higher totals back.



Oh Pshaw!  Will you log off and go wax your skis???   I'm with Warp!


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## dlague (Apr 3, 2015)

We will be skiing northern NH and VT so ...... not concerned.


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## thenaven (Apr 3, 2015)

So bummed about this rain.. I was looking forward to catching potentially the last ski day of the season this Sunday. Hopefully there is be some snow left and no rain. I'll take camelback, poconos or Catskills. I need to ski!!!


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## 〽❄❅ (Apr 4, 2015)

^ you may get your chance yet... weather dot com predicting 90% 3"-5" Tuesday morning snow storm for Hunter, high of 39º F. May have to take a mental health day. Before you get too excited, that site flip flops their forecast several times a day!


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## 〽❄❅ (Apr 4, 2015)

- now TWC rain Tues and moved it to Wednesday/90% 1"-3" snow mix/freezing rain, 37º. Onthesnow dot com 2" Tues., 6" Wed. Rrright:\


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## yeggous (Apr 4, 2015)

It's raining in Lyndonville, but both Burke and Jay are reporting snow with light accumulations. Heading to Jay as soon as the boss puts her face on.


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## fbrissette (Apr 4, 2015)

yeggous said:


> It's raining in Lyndonville, but both Burke and Jay are reporting snow with light accumulations. Heading to Jay as soon as the boss puts her face on.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone




Been raining all night at the bottom of Jay.  Has been snowing for a short while, but looking at the radar, we'll be lucky to get two  inches at the base.    With the cold, this will screw up ski conditions for the rest of the week-end.

This has ended up worse than the worse-case scenario for northern Vermont.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 4, 2015)

fbrissette said:


> Been raining all night at the bottom of Jay.  Has been snowing for a short while, but looking at the radar, we'll be lucky to get two  inches at the base.    With the cold, this will screw up ski conditions for the rest of the week-end.
> *
> This has ended up worse than the worse-case scenario for northern Vermont.*



Depends where.  For Jay that's definitely the case as they were supposed to get the most snow out of this.  

Here at Smuggs they've reported 5" to 6", which I believe, as looking out the window the boot depressions are fully covered, and it's still snowing hard.  About to swallow down breakfast and head out.


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## WWF-VT (Apr 4, 2015)

It's been snowing hard with plenty of wind since 7:30 AM here at Mt Ellen


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 4, 2015)

The final tally was 8" to 10", and it felt like more in certain snow-gathering regions like Shakedown.

Today was the best way possible to end the ski season.


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## Jcb890 (Apr 4, 2015)

Any real-time info on Killington today/tonight?  I'm contemplating a trip there tomorrow.


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## yeggous (Apr 4, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> The final tally was 8" to 10", and it felt like more in certain snow-gathering regions like Shakedown.
> 
> Today was the best way possible to end the ski season.



Upper mountain was great. Lower mountain less so. Glades like Timbuktu were the place to be. Goat Run was solid refrozen slush.


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## fbrissette (Apr 4, 2015)

yeggous said:


> Upper mountain was great. Lower mountain less so.



You are more tolerant than I am.   Upper mountain was OK, lower mountain was atrocious,


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## yeggous (Apr 4, 2015)

fbrissette said:


> You are more tolerant than I am.   Upper mountain was OK, lower mountain was atrocious,



I'm keeping it positive. Stay off the groomers and it was fun. The secondary surface was the real problem.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 4, 2015)

fbrissette said:


> You are more tolerant than I am.   *Upper mountain was OK, lower mountain was atrocious*,



Given you realized this at 7 something, why didn't you call an audible and head to Stowe or Smuggs?


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## WWF-VT (Apr 5, 2015)

Waking up Easter Sunday to a surprise 5" overnight here at Mt Ellen


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## Cannonball (Apr 5, 2015)

Dumping in Lincoln, NH this morning


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## HouseQuinn (Apr 10, 2015)

Thinking of heading up tomorrow, but wondering if wind is going to be an issue. Looks like it was today.


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## yeggous (Apr 10, 2015)

HouseQuinn said:


> Thinking of heading up tomorrow, but wondering if wind is going to be an issue. Looks like it was today.



Wildcat will be a safer bet than Cannon tomorrow.


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## Savemeasammy (Apr 10, 2015)

I'm heading to Sunapee tomorrow.  The forecasted winds aren't nearly as bad as most places...


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## dlague (Apr 11, 2015)

yeggous said:


> Wildcat will be a safer bet than Cannon tomorrow.



Wildcat often gets wind holds at least from my limited experience there.

At least Cannon has lower lifts.


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## catsup948 (Apr 11, 2015)

Winds howled here at Jay Peak yesterday.  They are howling right now too!


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