# NWS 2016 / 2017 Winter forecast!



## ALLSKIING (Feb 19, 2016)

Yep already out....start planning trips!!


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## skibumski (Feb 19, 2016)

A Whistler or Big Sky trip might be in order for next winter...


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## Rowsdower (Feb 19, 2016)

Woo! 

Been waiting for this. Regression to the mean is gonna feel like heaven compared to this year!


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## mriceyman (Feb 20, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> Woo!
> 
> Been waiting for this. Regression to the mean is gonna feel like heaven compared to this year!



Lol never wanted normal soo much before 


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## Skikarl (Feb 20, 2016)

Looks good but what is also crucial for a snow filled winter is the flow of the jetstreams. This year is a big El Niño year which causes all the storms we receive to have more heat because they take a slightly southern path than usual. That is why this year we have been having rain when we should be having snow. Next year is predicted to be a La Niña but it is really to early to predict. By next summer we should have a clear picture as to what to expect next winter.


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## laxski (Feb 21, 2016)

Hope we can get at least a Normal winter in the Northeast. Rented our place at Mt Snow out last 2 winters most likely won't next year.I have only done 5 days each of the last 2 winters hope to get back to 20-25 days. La Ninas can start out Cold  and Snowy in December which would be awesome. A cold November would be nice also.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 21, 2016)

Huh? Last winter was A+


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## yeggous (Feb 21, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> Huh? Last winter was A+



Previous two winters were excellent. That is why we are being punished this year.


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## laxski (Feb 21, 2016)

Agreed previous 2 winters were great, just put in 5 days the last 2 years. I hope to get back to 20-25 per season and it would be more fun if it were Snowy!!


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## Rowsdower (Feb 24, 2016)

It's going to get better next year. 

It's going to get better next year.

It's going to get better next year.

It's going to get better...


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## ss20 (Feb 24, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> It's going to get better next year.
> 
> It's going to get better next year.
> 
> ...



If it were worse, all ski areas south of I-90 would be open 45 days a season, and all the major resorts would have ~20 trails open.  I'm not even exaggerating...that's the sad part.  Pretty hard for another season to be worse than this one.

Luckily I'm young and getting my "1 in 100 years" winter done early.


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## bdfreetuna (Feb 26, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Luckily I'm young and getting my "1 in 100 years" winter done early.



This.


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## wtcobb (Feb 26, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Luckily I'm young and getting my "1 in 100 years" winter done early.



Let's hope, gents.


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## Los (Mar 24, 2016)

ya'll have this seen this, right? not sure what it means for 2016-2017 ski season... what about la nina? will we have another el nino? inquiring minds want to know....


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## yeggous (Mar 24, 2016)

Los said:


> ya'll have this seen this, right? not sure what it means for 2016-2017 ski season... what about la nina? will we have another el nino? inquiring minds want to know....
> View attachment 19707



It is way too early to predict ENSO for next year. That forecast is a joke, but has skill. What you see there is the global warming trend.


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## 〽❄❅ (Mar 24, 2016)

ss20 said:


> If it were worse, all ski areas south of I-90 would  be open 45 days a season, and all the major resorts would have ~20  trails open.  I'm not even exaggerating...that's the sad part.  Pretty  hard for another season to be worse than this one.
> 
> Luckily I'm young and getting my "1 in 100 years" winter done early.





bdfreetuna said:


> This.


well i'm old and I think you're Fcuked - open your eyes -


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## JimG. (Mar 25, 2016)

I'm tempted to lock this thread now as well as any others that are started discussing the winter of 2016-17.

You guys are hopeless.


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## Los (Mar 26, 2016)

JimG. said:


> I'm tempted to lock this thread now as well as any others that are started discussing the winter of 2016-17.
> 
> You guys are hopeless.



What are you talking about? Go ahead and lock it then.


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## Los (Mar 26, 2016)

〽❄❅;944352 said:
			
		

> well i'm old and I think you're Fcuked - open your eyes -




+1


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## ALLSKIING (Mar 27, 2016)

Los said:


> What are you talking about? Go ahead and lock it then.



He's saying this season is not over.


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## JimG. (Mar 27, 2016)

ALLSKIING said:


> He's saying this season is not over.



No I wasn't. I was saying that at the end of such a monumentally poor snow season it seems unlikely that there will be much positive commentary or discussion concerning weather so why bother.

I think he has a fear of global warming which is fine but I don't see how that is going to lead to positive discussion either; again, why bother now?

That is all; not locking anything.


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## fbrissette (Mar 27, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Luckily I'm young and getting my "1 in 100 years" winter done early.



May be not 1 in 100, but close to 1 in 50 based in this data.   Link provided on the pic.


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## catsup948 (Mar 27, 2016)

We had about 15 inches of snow here this winter I'd bet good money we beat that next winter.


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## JimG. (Mar 27, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> We had about 15 inches of snow here this winter I'd bet good money we beat that next winter.



15 times what we got here near Poughkeepsie NY.

I never used my snowblower and I think I picked up a shovel once.


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## 〽❄❅ (Mar 27, 2016)

One good measurable storm here and I'm not complaining either. I think 20" was the official total from January's storm, measured 26" in my driveway. Got to cross-country ski the hilly woods of the Wissahickon Gorge, something I dreamt of doing while running there all summer and fall, and again now! That doesn't happen often around here where I'm from and I'm thankful for it.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 31, 2016)

Sunday forecast for Mountain Sniw looking like snow changing from rain overnight just matter of when hopefully it enough for few inches of snow. So I can come up to ski snow Sunday .wondering what others opinions is on changeover?

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## Rowsdower (Apr 7, 2016)

Read today that the Atlantic is entering a cooling phase. Spoke of less hurricanes forming in the Atlantic, but what does that usually mean for winters in the NE?


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## Not Sure (Apr 7, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> Read today that the Atlantic is entering a cooling phase. Spoke of less hurricanes forming in the Atlantic, but what does that usually mean for winters in the NE?



Some time in the last few months (don't remember when ) JB claimed in a video that there would be an increase in Hurricanes? 
Article link ?


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## Rowsdower (Apr 7, 2016)

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...antic-hurricane-season-forecast-2016/56491288

Only a possibility if the cold water migrates far enough south.


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## Not Sure (Apr 7, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...antic-hurricane-season-forecast-2016/56491288
> 
> Only a possibility if the cold water migrates far enough south.



Thanks....Predicted 14 storms 2 more than normal but hedge the rest of the article LOL. 
I've wathced so many weather vids but remember one that refered to melting ice creating deep sea currents affecting weather at the equator. Fun to read even if it doesn't pan out .


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## Abubob (Apr 7, 2016)

fbrissette said:


> May be not 1 in 100, but close to 1 in 50 based in this data.   Link provided on the pic.


This is a cool graph.

http://www.matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/

Scrolling through the years you see that the 1950's were pretty dismal and some of the biggest snow years are more recent.


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## Puck it (Apr 7, 2016)

Abubob said:


> This is a cool graph.
> 
> http://www.matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/
> 
> Scrolling through the years you see that the 1950's were pretty dismal and some of the biggest snow years are more recent.


Wait,are you saying that 50's had global warming and snow amounts improved thru the 60's and 70's?


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## Abubob (Apr 7, 2016)

Puck it said:


> Wait,are you saying that 50's had global warming and snow amounts improved thru the 60's and 70's?


I wouldn't say that. But I _MIGHT_ say something like "Global warming doesn't necessarily seem to mean less snow". The graphs also seem to present the possibility of a string of lean years ... followed by an amazingly snowy year. But the average doesn't look to be diminishing.


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## JaneGibb (Apr 7, 2016)

Oh Winter, we're yet into Summer  But would love to be back skiing in the Alps next Winter!


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## Brad J (Apr 9, 2016)

1969 that was the year!!!!!!


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## Not Sure (Apr 9, 2016)

Snowed like crazy for a while 3.5'' 
Too little too late!:-?


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 12, 2016)

Abubob said:


> I wouldn't say that. But I _MIGHT_ say something like *"Global warming doesn't necessarily seem to mean less snow"*.



Unless there's a year with abnormally low snowfall.  Then Global Warming definitely means less snow.  

Global Warming also definitely means abnormal high snowfall too of course if it snows a lot in a year. 

Really, there's pretty much nothing that isnt direct evidence of Global Warming.


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## jack97 (Apr 13, 2016)

Hopefully..... the season we had was an aberration. The interesting part is that areas north of the Saint Lawrence got close or beyond their snowfall and areas south of the NE ski areas got their normal as well. Washington DC and New York City went beyond their typical snow fall. There was some serious "banding" going on where the NE ski areas just never got the snow, the storms really took an odd track this past season.


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## jack97 (Apr 13, 2016)

^^^ 

"Someone complained about you, so we're just gonna act like we're talking to you."


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## Savemeasammy (Apr 13, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Unless there's a year with abnormally low snowfall.  Then Global Warming definitely means less snow.
> 
> Global Warming also definitely means abnormal high snowfall too of course if it snows a lot in a year.
> 
> Really, there's pretty much nothing that isnt direct evidence of Global Warming.






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## dlague (Apr 16, 2016)

Well my real first weekend in Colorado and it is snowing like crazy.  Loveland is showing 15 inches on the stake. Other mountains reporting the same.  Supposed to snow into tomorrow.  Not skiing today due to 40-50 m/h winds but two of our boys are at Copper.  We are heading out tomorrow to Loveland or A Basin.  Funny thing and as many of you know, some of the ski areas have shut down already.  They are serious about their hard stops which is a bit of a bummer.


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## twinplanx (Apr 16, 2016)

dlague said:


> ...They are serious about their hard stops which is a bit of a bummer.



Hard to argue when your on leased land... Besides the irony of such a large spring storm there is the added insult of our own pitiful excuse for a winter.


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## dlague (Apr 16, 2016)

Shitty season in the northeast and while we will still ski to the end here it is sad to see fully covered ski areas closing!


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## 4aprice (Apr 17, 2016)

dlague said:


> Shitty season in the northeast and while we will still ski to the end here it is sad to see fully covered ski areas closing!



Yea but its always been that way.  You have your bastions of late season skiing.(AB LL Snowbird)  A lot of the major resorts have their employees on contracts that expire so no workers, Forest service closes for breeding season and most of all the customers dry up (even the locals).  You now have the Loveland Pass area to play around with till June.  (Looks like at least 15 +  there over what was a solid base a week and 1/2 ago. )  Enjoy the Beach at Arapahoe.   

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## dlague (Apr 17, 2016)

4aprice said:


> Yea but its always been that way.  You have your bastions of late season skiing.(AB LL Snowbird)  A lot of the major resorts have their employees on contracts that expire so no workers, Forest service closes for breeding season and most of all the customers dry up (even the locals).  You now have the Loveland Pass area to play around with till June.  (Looks like at least 15 +  there over what was a solid base a week and 1/2 ago. )  Enjoy the Beach at Arapahoe.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



I get it but still sad.


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## deadheadskier (Apr 17, 2016)

I'd rather have that problem with ski areas like ABasin staying open as long as August 10th than what we got going on here right now!!


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## Los (Apr 22, 2016)

So I read something recently that says La Nina will likely happen and that the impact for the northeast will be colder temps than normal with less precipitation than normal. Sounds like a reverse of what's supposed to happen with el nino. Given our primo snow making capacity, maybe it will be a good year! It better be dammit!


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## dlague (Oct 24, 2016)

This is a better graphic - hope this comes true for New England or should I say the Northeast!


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## Jully (Oct 24, 2016)

Might I ask where that graphic is from?


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## Abubob (Oct 24, 2016)

This is why I don't believe anything meteorologists predict.

This is from last year ... we all know how that worked out







Here we have this years prediction. Notice anything similar?


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## Jully (Oct 24, 2016)

Farmer's almanac is total crap though and isn't exactly meteorology (no offense). While I agree long range forecasts are not great, the farmer's almanac is something totally different and totally worthless.


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## Abubob (Oct 24, 2016)

Jully said:


> Farmer's almanac is total crap though and isn't exactly meteorology (no offense). While I agree long range forecasts are not great, the farmer's almanac is something totally different and totally worthless.



Their crap is no more or less accurate than anybody else's. All long range forecasts are totally worthless! What I find amusing is that FA seems to recycle the same Hippie Dippy forecast every year. 

Here's another example from Weather Bell predicting normal snowfall for the northeast last year.


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 24, 2016)

Abubob said:


> Their crap is no more or less accurate than anybody else's. All long range forecasts are totally worthless! What I find amusing is that FA seems to recycle the same Hippie Dippy forecast every year.
> 
> Here's another example from Weather Bell predicting normal snowfall for the northeast last year.



Actually part of that is right on...just not NE.


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## dlague (Oct 24, 2016)

dlague said:


> This is a better graphic - hope this comes true for New England or should I say the Northeast!
> 
> View attachment 20903





Jully said:


> Might I ask where that graphic is from?



https://www.facebook.com/Northeast-Weather-Alert-164482587095720/about/

Their Website

http://ectwc1122.wixsite.com/newa


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## steamboat1 (Oct 24, 2016)

I'm happy with whatever.


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## dlague (Oct 25, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> I'm happy with whatever.



That is the perfect attitude!


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## Abubob (Oct 25, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> I'm happy with whatever.


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## Abubob (Oct 26, 2016)

This year will be "different".



> This also _*does not mean that cold and snowstorms are imminent. *_It does mean that at the very least the state of the atmosphere is completely different from last year at this time and that _*the outcome should be different *_as well. We will be watching the weather patterns closely over the next few weeks to see how it evolves.
> 
> ...the one big mystery in this is whether this different hemispheric look that is developing will translate into a wetter than normal pattern in the drought areas. _*There is nothing that says we can’t go from warm and dry to cold and dry for the next several months*_.



italics mine

http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2016/10/26/joestradamus-early-winter-coming/


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## Not Sure (Oct 29, 2016)

Abubob said:


> This year will be "different".
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Just for  fun Entomolical  prognostication . Ladybugs are back !!!13/14 was a huge year for ladybugs.many people with heat pumps had trouble with ladybugs getting stuck in relays . Started seeing a moderate hatch today .


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## Abubob (Oct 29, 2016)

I think I saw one, maybe two, lady bugs this season so far.


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## Los (Oct 29, 2016)

boooooo.....  this discussion sucks! ladybugs?!? C'mon!!! -_Gob Bluth_


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## Abubob (Oct 29, 2016)

Bwa ha ha!


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## Not Sure (Oct 29, 2016)

People actually spend money on the Farmers Almanac....I rank this up there. "Just for fun"


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## dlague (Oct 31, 2016)

Disclaimer - I am no weather expert.  This is based on blogs and other reports that I have read and temperature forecasts for different areas.

So, I was researching the next two-three weeks and can see a nice trend for the Northeast where temps stay cool/cold.  Looks like a couple days might experience some rain during the day but it is limited otherwise the Northeast is going to be well on its way towards getting the ski season off on a good start.  With the colder temps especially at night, all the ski areas that are scheduled to open around Thanksgiving should not be an issue.

The Northwest including Southwest Canada, well they are getting pounded.  There has been a very nice pattern for them which is lifting storms entering from the Pacific into that region and carrying across Northern States as well as into Southern Canada and not dipping down much until it get closer to New England (Bonus).

While the current jet stream works well for NW and NE, it does not bode well for Utah and Colorado with temps well above average with not real relief in sight since the temperature pattern continues to fluctuate.  At best we will get some sloppy seconds from the next storm now entering CA that will bring some cold air but get pushed up north into Wyoming providing Utah and Colorado with some teaser snow but the current ridge of high pressure in the central US will push further north leaving Utah/Colorado with unfavorable temps for the next couple weeks - which sucks!  Tahoe seems to be in the neutral zone between the NW and Utah/Colorado area where things could go either way for them but the ridge of high pressure will be warming them up too.

Overall the Northeast seems to be in great shape over the next few weeks, the NW while they have been getting hit, will dry out a little and Utah/Colorado will remain warm.  Not the plan I had for this fall!


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## fbrissette (Oct 31, 2016)

Environment Canada today's seasonal forecast (Oct. 31st) put at less than 10% the probability of having temperatures below the average for nov.-dec-jan, and put next month forecats at average at best.

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=mfe1t_s


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## dlague (Oct 31, 2016)

fbrissette said:


> Environment Canada today's seasonal forecast (Oct. 31st) put at less than 10% the probability of having temperatures below the average for nov.-dec-jan, and put next month forecats at average at best.
> 
> https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=mfe1t_s



Well Average works if the temps are cold enough to support snow making or snowfall.  But there is a lot of red and orange which is not good.  Northeast seems neutral!


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 31, 2016)

I keep hearing from multiple sources that starting mid Nov through Xmas will be intense for NE! Just hoping it continues through the entire winter.

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## Los (Oct 31, 2016)

ALLSKIING said:


> I keep hearing from multiple sources that starting mid Nov through Xmas will be intense for NE! Just hoping it continues through the entire winter.
> 
> Sent from my LG-H901 using AlpineZone mobile app



Accuweather's three month forecast is very, very grim. Like a repeat of last year grim.


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## machski (Oct 31, 2016)

Los said:


> Accuweather's three month forecast is very, very grim. Like a repeat of last year grim.


That's because accuweather's forecast long range last year looked great.  Their long range is a joke.

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## dlague (Oct 31, 2016)

Does anyone remember the season when Killington got the Halloween storm?  Yup able to poach runs T2B in October and the rest of the season sucked - not as bad as last year though.  I do have to say there was one big storm that season that delivered at Jay Peak and dropped the most powder I had ever seen there.  That was about it!


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## Los (Oct 31, 2016)

Ok then, I'll try to ignore it....


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## Abubob (Oct 31, 2016)

Los said:


> Accuweather's three month forecast is very, very grim. Like a repeat of last year grim.


You talking about this? Not so grim.


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 31, 2016)

Los said:


> Accuweather's three month forecast is very, very grim. Like a repeat of last year grim.


That's not a forecast....if you want to follow and learn about weather then that is not the place to be looking.

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## fbrissette (Oct 31, 2016)

Really, colder than late fall 2015 ?    That's a really really safe bet.  We destroyed all records during that period last year.


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## Abubob (Oct 31, 2016)

fbrissette said:


> Really, colder than late fall 2015 ?    That's a really really safe bet.  We destroyed all records during that period last year.


Quoting an earlier post, "This year will be different".


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## yeggous (Oct 31, 2016)

For those who really care...

For the past two weeks there has been strong evidence that mid to late November is going to be abnormally cold. The Polar Vortex is forecast to split in a way that is unusual (borderline historic) for this time of the year. We've seen this coming for a while now.


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## JDMRoma (Oct 31, 2016)

yeggous said:


> For those who really care...
> 
> For the past two weeks there has been strong evidence that mid to late November is going to be abnormally cold. The Polar Vortex is forecast to split in a way that is unusual (borderline historic) for this time of the year. We've seen this coming for a while now.
> 
> ...



Now this is encouraging !!

Thank you !


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## bdfreetuna (Oct 31, 2016)

I care a lot!


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 31, 2016)

yeggous said:


> For those who really care...
> 
> For the past two weeks there has been strong evidence that mid to late November is going to be abnormally cold. The Polar Vortex is forecast to split in a way that is unusual (borderline historic) for this time of the year. We've seen this coming for a while now.
> 
> ...


Was hoping you would chime in with some credibility.

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## Los (Oct 31, 2016)

yeggous said:


> For those who really care...
> 
> For the past two weeks there has been strong evidence that mid to late November is going to be abnormally cold. The Polar Vortex is forecast to split in a way that is unusual (borderline historic) for this time of the year. We've seen this coming for a while now.
> 
> ...



I care, and I'll take it! Thanks!!


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## 〽❄❅ (Nov 1, 2016)

^ me too, Thank You, @yeggous!!!


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## Tin (Nov 1, 2016)

yeggous said:


> For those who really care...
> 
> For the past two weeks there has been strong evidence that mid to late November is going to be abnormally cold. The Polar Vortex is forecast to split in a way that is unusual (borderline historic) for this time of the year. We've seen this coming for a while now.
> 
> ...




Quite amazing the evidence has supported it for nearly a month with little change. Looks like just cold air though, correct?


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## yeggous (Nov 1, 2016)

Tin said:


> Quite amazing the evidence has supported it for nearly a month with little change. Looks like just cold air though, correct?



This will give you some good background based on one guy's perspective:
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

He's one of the best in the business, but take everything with a grain of salt. He was forecasting a warm winter two years ago.


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## Tin (Nov 1, 2016)

yeggous said:


> This will give you some good background based on one guy's perspective:
> https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation
> 
> He's one of the best in the business, but take everything with a grain of salt. He was forecasting a warm winter two years ago.




Awesome stuff, thank you. I figured the pNA/-AO/-NAO pattern would help.


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## Cornhead (Nov 1, 2016)

Warm lakes + Polar Vortex = Happy times at Snow Ridge, bring it!

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## benski (Nov 1, 2016)

Cornhead said:


> Warm lakes + Polar Vortex = Happy times at Snow Ridge, bring it!
> 
> Sent from my XT1064 using AlpineZone mobile app



I am getting excited. Will be able to shut up all the people who though skiing before thanksgiving was overly optimistic!


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## dlague (Nov 1, 2016)

benski said:


> I am getting excited. Will be able to shut up all the people who though skiing before thanksgiving was overly optimistic!



Optimistic?  4-6 days of skiing if not more can be had before Thanksgiving.  I think a few on this forum are at 3-4 days already.  Sadly, I am at 1 and hopefully 2 this weekend.


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## yeggous (Nov 1, 2016)

benski said:


> I am getting excited. Will be able to shut up all the people who though skiing before thanksgiving was overly optimistic!



We're still talking about November here. What the mass media dubs the Polar Vortex is really the break-down of the vortex. The vortex typically keeps cold air locked in the arctic. When it breaks down and splits, cold air is able to split out to lower latitudes. Just don't expect this to bring below zero temperatures in November.


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## 4aprice (Nov 1, 2016)

benski said:


> I am getting excited. Will be able to shut up all the people who though skiing before thanksgiving was overly optimistic!



JB has talked about this for a while this fall.  About a 1 1/2 weeks ago he said 3 weeks warm then the bottom falls out.  MJO prediction looks favorable too.  Back in the fall of 2007 we got a cold snap that allowed a lot of places to open up before or at Thanksgiving including down here in the Pocono's where Camelback was open Thanksgiving weekend.  I will be interested to see if we can get a repeat.  Would make 2 times in just shy of a decade which is not bad. 

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## nhskier1969 (Nov 1, 2016)

Just saw this article, talking possibly several polar vortex outbreaks for us this year .
http://unofficialnetworks.com/2016/11/study-climate-change-east-coast


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## yeggous (Nov 1, 2016)

nhskier1969 said:


> Just saw this article, talking possibly several polar vortex outbreaks for us this year .
> http://unofficialnetworks.com/2016/11/study-climate-change-east-coast



Yes, that is consistent with most studies to date. Records indicated that winter has been shrinking in duration at both ends, but the core of winter is not warming. There is evidence to suggest that snowfall may even be increasing, though a lack of a consistent snowfall record complicates this conclusion. All of this is consistent with a warming global climate, especially in the Arctic. The hypothesized connection is that a warmer Arctic Ocean is leading a less stable polar vortex. When the polar vortex splits you get rapid, dramatic warming in the Arctric and a cold air outbreak to mid-latitudes. New England is one of the favored locations of these outbreaks due to a coincidence of geography.


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## Tin (Nov 2, 2016)

yeggous said:


> Yes, that is consistent with most studies to date. Records indicated that winter has been shrinking in duration at both ends, but the core of winter is not warming. There is evidence to suggest that snowfall may even be increasing, though a lack of a consistent snowfall record complicates this conclusion. All of this is consistent with a warming global climate, especially in the Arctic. The hypothesized connection is that a warmer Arctic Ocean is leading a less stable polar vortex. When the polar vortex splits you get rapid, dramatic warming in the Arctric and a cold air outbreak to mid-latitudes. New England is one of the favored locations of these outbreaks due to a coincidence of geography.



Awesome info Yeggous.


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## Puck it (Nov 2, 2016)

I am so sick of the media buzz words. They make it sound like a polar vortex has never happened before.  IT is called a f'in artic low with a high pressure ridge blocking it.


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## benski (Nov 2, 2016)

Puck it said:


> I am so sick of the media buzz words. They make it sound like a polar vortex has never happened before.  IT is called a f'in artic low with a high pressure ridge blocking it.



Without the buzz word it would be commonly known as "that time it was really fucking cold for a month"


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## yeggous (Nov 2, 2016)

Puck it said:


> I am so sick of the media buzz words. They make it sound like a polar vortex has never happened before.  IT is called a f'in artic low with a high pressure ridge blocking it.



It's true that the media has perverted the term polar vortex, but it is a real thing. It's not an arctic low. Those (a.k.a., polar lows) are essentially hurricanes where it is really cold. Thermodynamically there is practically no difference between a tropical hurricane / typhoon / cyclone, and and a polar low.

A polar vortex split differs from a typical cold air outbreak in its dynamics. The polar vortex has a deep coupling all the way up into the stratosphere. It should up very clearly on a potential vorticity map. Where the vortex become distorted due to wave disturbances around its periphery, this is your typical cold air outbreak while the center of the vortex remains centered in the arctic. What we're talking about is a vortex breakup / split where you end up with two (or sometimes more) distinct vortex centers which typically wander more equatorward over the continents. This vortex split is associated with a "sudden stratospheric warming".

For extra credit, the sudden stratosphere warming is caused by breaking a planetary-scale waves called Rossby waves. These waves are observable and forecastable well in advance due to their large scale. When we forecast a polar vortex split so far in advance, it is usually because we can see a large Rossby wave breaking event coming and know what comes next. The dynamics of Rossby wave are complicated "and will be left for the reader", but involve the rotational forces of the Earth.


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## deadheadskier (Nov 2, 2016)

The real question

Patterns shifting?

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## Puck it (Nov 2, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> The real question
> 
> Patterns shifting?
> 
> Sent from my XT1565 using AlpineZone mobile app


Not global warming again!!!!!


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## dlague (Nov 2, 2016)

I find this interesting.

A polar low is a small-scale, short-lived atmospheric low pressure system (depression) that is found over the ocean areas poleward of the main polar front in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

A polar vortex is a large pocket of very cold air, typically the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere, which sits over the polar region during the winter season.



I also find this interesting too!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-climate-change-extending-winter-study-finds/


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## dlague (Nov 4, 2016)

Here are for forecasting interviews of weather folks in an article put out by Vermont Ski+Ride

http://vtskiandride.com/forecasters/


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## ALLSKIING (Nov 4, 2016)

dlague said:


> Here are for forecasting interviews of weather folks in an article put out by Vermont Ski+Ride
> 
> http://vtskiandride.com/forecasters/


Those questions are impossible to answer.

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## jack97 (Nov 5, 2016)

yeggous said:


> Records indicated that winter has been shrinking in duration at both ends, but the core of winter is not warming. There is evidence to suggest that snowfall may even be increasing, though a lack of a consistent snowfall record complicates this conclusion.




Please cite the links or articles that shows this trend.


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## Los (Nov 5, 2016)

jack97 said:


> Please cite the links or articles that shows this trend.



What an insincere, passive aggressive request (and a spectacularly inept and cringeworthy attempt to be clever). 



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## Los (Nov 5, 2016)

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## jack97 (Nov 6, 2016)

Los said:


> What an insincere, passive aggressive request (and a spectacularly inept and cringeworthy attempt to be clever).
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Actually, I' m interested in reading any articles and seeing the data that may support this hypothesis. As for other remarks, I am purposely ignoring them to stay civil.


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## dlague (Nov 6, 2016)

yeggous said:


> Yes, that is consistent with most studies to date. Records indicated that winter has been shrinking in duration at both ends, but the core of winter is not warming. There is evidence to suggest that snowfall may even be increasing, though a lack of a consistent snowfall record complicates this conclusion. All of this is consistent with a warming global climate, especially in the Arctic. The hypothesized connection is that a warmer Arctic Ocean is leading a less stable polar vortex. When the polar vortex splits you get rapid, dramatic warming in the Arctric and a cold air outbreak to mid-latitudes. New England is one of the favored locations of these outbreaks due to a coincidence of geography.


I need to find the article but it has a different spin.  Stating that the winter is just as long as normal but there are more temperature swings.

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## jack97 (Nov 6, 2016)

^^^ I would be interested in reading the article as well. 

Getting back to AER, Cohen is using the Arctic Oscillation index to predict the upcoming winter. His hypothesis is if the AO  is negative, parts of the mid west to the east coast will get that blast of cold. This index has been measured and calculated since 1900, I assume before the era of remote sensing, the index was based on re-analysis. As a side, getting more data from the past would be a good indicator of long range prediction.


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## jack97 (Nov 6, 2016)

while I was doing yard work this afternoon, the "Siberian Express" catch phrase got recalled from my memory. Attached is an article, within is an interesting paragraph, the cold outbreak of 1899 could be the reason why NOAA and its predecessors has been tracking things up at the arctic. 

“The cold outbreak of 1899 is kind of the benchmark for cold outbreaks to beat, and this one looks like it’ll either compare or be even more impressive,” said Kevin Roth, lead meteorologist at The Weather Channel. “The cold records likely to fall have been standing since before the automobile was invented in the U.S.”


In addition, the pattern Bastardi is predicting is close to what happen 14/15. That season, we had a warm Dec and Jan, recall Brady's deflategate game occurred during an abnormally warm Jan and then it went cold for several months. This upcoming season, Bastardi thinks the cold will happen sooner. Not sure if we will get the warm spells but hope its stays cold long enough to make man made. 








http://majornews.us/archives/667


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## bdfreetuna (Nov 6, 2016)

came here for how cold and snowy it's gonna be in November. Only found a bunch of climate change speculation. Are we still doing weather in this forum?


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## skibumski (Nov 6, 2016)

bdfreetuna said:


> came here for how cold and snowy it's gonna be in November. Only found a bunch of climate change speculation. Are we still doing weather in this forum?



I gotta agree... can we leave climate change discussion to an off topic thread and stay focused on the upcoming weather here? No isolated instance of weather proves or disproves climate change, so what's the point?


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## jack97 (Nov 7, 2016)

Forecasters are saying the pattern up at the Arctic will shift as a result of the seasonal obliquity*, *the GFS is showing this while other models has shown it for some time. Bastardi is predicting that a cold outbreak will happen middle of this month.  Since had we had a record El Nino, this has left the temps near the great lakes abnormally warm so he is predicting lake effect snow as well. 

During fall,  I've been tracking the Siberian snowpack,  it's extent and rate of change was large this year. If Bastardi and Cohen are right, it will be cold enough for man made in Nov. And now I'm hearing rumblings of some winter storms in Dec.


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## Los (Nov 7, 2016)

jack97 said:


> Actually, I' m interested in reading any articles and seeing the data that may support this hypothesis. As for other remarks, I am purposely ignoring them to stay civil.



My apologies. 


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## ALLSKIING (Nov 7, 2016)

This storm could be the start to the pattern change!
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




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## Tin (Nov 7, 2016)

ALLSKIING said:


> This storm could be the start to the pattern change!
> 
> 
> 
> ...





240 out but on my birthday...don't know whether to wishcast for winter to begin or dismiss.


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## dlague (Nov 7, 2016)

Tin said:


> 240 out but on my birthday...don't know whether to wishcast for winter to begin or dismiss.


That looks really wet! Maybe snow on the backside?

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## yeggous (Nov 7, 2016)

jack97 said:


> it will be cold enough for man made in Nov





jack97 said:


> some winter storms in Dec



Bold statements!

I've held off replying to this thread until I have some time to dig up some references. A full literature search is not something I have the time or motivation to do. It's also difficult to give considering the pervasive paywalls in academic literature. (Another topic for another time.)

For those who want to know how people are forecasting these cold air outbreaks far in advance, and what the polar vortex has to do with it:
doi:10.1002/qj.620
doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00030.1

Arctic sea ice reductions resulting in more cold air mixing south:
doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2009.00421.x
doi:10.1038/ncomms5646
doi:10.3402/polar.v30i0.15787

Shorter winters... the studies here are numerous. The most reliable ones are those that use ecological markers as they eliminate any arguments about instrumentation bias or errors. It's nearly impossible to claim that biology has some sort of developing systematic bias. One example is below:
doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01097.x
Snowfall also shows a similar spring melting trend:
doi:10.1029/2006GL027258

As for Judah Cohen's seasonal forecasts, they rely on October snowfall in Siberia. The hypothesized link is through a weakening of the polar vortex:
doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2746:EOARTE>2.0.CO;2
doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1725.1
If you believe him, this winter will be cold. The index is very strong this year.

Regarding climate change discussions, let's be very clear about something. To rely on a physics analogy, climate and weather are linked in the same way as your position and speed. The science of climate change is as strong as that of gravity and evolution. They are both well understood. Of those three topics, gravity is probably the most controversial.


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## slatham (Nov 7, 2016)

ALLSKIING said:


> This storm could be the start to the pattern change!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



This is the time frame to watch though there is no consensus amongst models or even run to run on the details (12Euro is further east but has TWO warm core lows on the front including one near NYC).


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## Jully (Nov 7, 2016)

yeggous said:


> Bold statements!
> 
> I've held off replying to this thread until I have some time to dig up some references. A full literature search is not something I have the time or motivation to do. It's also difficult to give considering the pervasive paywalls in academic literature. (Another topic for another time.)
> 
> ...



Thanks for the papers Yeggous! I appreciate the searching, especially avoiding the paywalls...


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## mriceyman (Nov 7, 2016)

Alot of warm air with the storm but its is def a welcome change to this pattern 


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## jack97 (Nov 8, 2016)

yeggous said:


> Shorter winters... the studies here are numerous. The most reliable ones are those that use ecological markers as they eliminate any arguments about instrumentation bias or errors. It's nearly impossible to claim that biology has some sort of developing systematic bias. One example is below:
> doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01097.x
> Snowfall also shows a similar spring melting trend:
> doi:10.1029/2006GL027258



First, thank you for spending the time on generating these links to the article. I read the Dyer et al paper on Spatial Variability and Trends... , the other paper, Onset of Spring starting earlier across the NH by Schwartz et al was paywalled so I just read the abstract. As for the latter, using the biological markers for spring detection is well known however spring is just one end of the snow season, what about the start? As for the former paper, the SCE was based on surface measurements so the sampling from these stations can result in questionable findings. 

The Rutgers snow lab published fall, winter and spring snow SCE plots from 1967 to present, the link to these graphs are shown below. The plots do show SCE decreasing in spring while it has been increasing in both fall and winter. 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1


The paper below uses the satellite data and shows the seasons are shifting as the plots above have shown. The paper concludes a net neutral effect.  Of intetrest to me is what is causing this shift. 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim_v1/robinson_pubs/refereed/Choi_Robinson_and_Kang_2010.pdf


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## jack97 (Nov 8, 2016)

mriceyman said:


> Alot of warm air with the storm but its is def a welcome change to this pattern
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone




Revised winter forecast from Weatherbell, still saying and putting it on the line that Dec will be cold. 
IIRC, the cold should happen ~ week before thanksgiving. 

http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast-update


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## yeggous (Nov 8, 2016)

jack97 said:


> First, thank you for spending the time on generating these links to the article. I read the Dyer et al paper on Spatial Variability and Trends... , the other paper, Onset of Spring starting earlier across the NH by Schwartz et al was paywalled so I just read the abstract. As for the latter, using the biological markers for spring detection is well known however spring is just one end of the snow season, what about the start? As for the former paper, the SCE was based on surface measurements so the sampling from these stations can result in questionable findings.
> 
> The Rutgers snow lab published fall, winter and spring snow SCE plots from 1967 to present, the link to these graphs are shown below. The plots do show SCE decreasing in spring while it has been increasing in both fall and winter.
> 
> ...



Autumn changes are less clear. Evidence suggests the trend probably depends on the latitude, with warming and delayed autumn being greater at high latitudes:
doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00675.x
But autumn in general shows high variability which masks the signal.

That paper by Choi et al. is consistent to other published work. They note a decrease in the length of "full snow season" but see no such trend in "core snow season". I've seen other work that agrees that the core of winter hasn't changed much yet but the tail seasons are a different story.

As for the cause of all this... getting at any definable cause in the highly coupled climate system is nearly impossible. Arctic sea surface temperatures / lack of sea ice is a obvious and tantalizing suspect.
doi:10.1038/nature09051
Of course as already discussed, the reduced sea ice is could also be playing a role in stabilizing our winter temperatures but weakening the polar vortex.


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## 4aprice (Nov 8, 2016)

jack97 said:


> Revised winter forecast from Weatherbell, still saying and putting it on the line that Dec will be cold.
> IIRC, the cold should happen ~ week before thanksgiving.
> 
> http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast-update



Looks good east, while Colorado looks ok and Utah a little worrisome.  Work your magic Watsatch.  Looking forward to getting this adventure started.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Puck it (Nov 8, 2016)

This is should help some.


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## dlague (Nov 8, 2016)

Go figure I move to Colorado and this happens!  Still skiing though - Loveland opens this weekend.

http://denver.cbslocal.com/2016/11/07/denvers-historic-dust-bowl-snow-record-at-risk-this-year/


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## slatham (Nov 8, 2016)

Seems this year is the battle of the models vs. the analogs. Recent model runs warm (NNME, Euro, etc) but analogs cold. Pastelok and Bastardi staying the course, but looking at the models gives one pause (or at least nausea). 

Oh, and next weeks storm on the 12Z GFS just went poof.......


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## mriceyman (Nov 8, 2016)

slatham said:


> Seems this year is the battle of the models vs. the analogs. Recent model runs warm (NNME, Euro, etc) but analogs cold. Pastelok and Bastardi staying the course, but looking at the models gives one pause (or at least nausea).
> 
> Oh, and next weeks storm on the 12Z GFS just went poof.......



Youll see alot of nervous forecasters if the cold keeps getting pushed back. I really hope our december is cold


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## dlague (Nov 8, 2016)

Well this could make things firm or soft for FIS if this happens according to accuweather!


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## prsboogie (Nov 8, 2016)

It's funny I just looked at that exact forecast!


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## andrec10 (Nov 8, 2016)

dlague said:


> Well this could make things firm or soft for FIS if this happens according to accuweather!
> 
> View attachment 20974



Its Crapuweather and more than 2 weeks out!


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## jack97 (Nov 8, 2016)

slatham said:


> Seems this year is the battle of the models vs. the analogs. Recent model runs warm (NNME, Euro, etc) but analogs cold. Pastelok and Bastardi staying the course, but looking at the models gives one pause (or at least nausea).
> 
> Oh, and next weeks storm on the 12Z GFS just went poof.......



Bastardi has been trashing the GFS for the past months, one of pet peeve is the models tele connections to various indices, his opinion is its in contradiction. Speaking of which, along with the analogs, Bastardi has factored the work from Cohen, the AO index and the fall snowpack. It appears Accuweather long range forecaster Sosnowski is on board with the mid Nov cold spell. Hearing this w/e cold shot is a short term event.  

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...-turn-stormy-colder-snowy-eastern-us/61313612


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## jack97 (Nov 8, 2016)

Puck it said:


> This is should help some.
> 
> View attachment 20973



Some one from the commissar needs to defund Berkeley Labs.


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## deadheadskier (Nov 11, 2016)

Snow tires went on today. Pattern can shift now. Sorry for slacking

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## Not Sure (Nov 14, 2016)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8xlw8vFzmA    FF to 2:20

Lake effect Sunday/Monday?


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## ss20 (Nov 15, 2016)

Two chances for snow next week.  Both the GFS and Euro have "something" this weekend.  Turkey Day could also be interesting.


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## yeggous (Nov 15, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Two chances for snow next week.  Both the GFS and Euro have "something" this weekend.  Turkey Day could also be interesting.



Yes the promised late November pattern change is materializing in the models


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## Jully (Nov 15, 2016)

When was the last time we had snow on Thanksgiving? It could be like... two years ago, but I think it has been awhile.


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## yeggous (Nov 15, 2016)

Jully said:


> When was the last time we had snow on Thanksgiving? It could be like... two years ago, but I think it has been awhile.



You mean on the ground in the mountains? Or actively falling from the sky in the flatlands?


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## Tin (Nov 15, 2016)

If the GFS was ever going to be correct let it happen now.


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## mriceyman (Nov 15, 2016)

Tin said:


> If the GFS was ever going to be correct let it happen now.



Yes it would be nice 


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## ss20 (Nov 15, 2016)

Tin said:


> If the GFS was ever going to be correct let it happen now.



That was a beautiful model run.  Trying not to get excited for a Thanksgiving day storm, but the fact that I'm actually excited for a snow storm for the first time in 8 months is defeating the fact that I'm a fool for looking 8 days out.


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## jack97 (Nov 16, 2016)

The "promise" of the change in pattern was based on very some skilled long range forecasting techniques. I don't trust the GFS over one week out but things look promising.


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## Jully (Nov 16, 2016)

yeggous said:


> You mean on the ground in the mountains? Or actively falling from the sky in the flatlands?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



Falling in the flatlands!


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## skiberg (Nov 16, 2016)

right now it looks like its probably going to precipitate around turkey day, the question is the type.


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## Los (Nov 17, 2016)

I have been scolded on this forum for taking accuweather monthly forecasts seriously (even though November is turning out right along the lines of what accuweather predicted). That's fine, but can we agree that getting weather news from Open Snow is an even worse idea? 

They sent an e-mail this morning titled: “Snow coast-to-coast with a happy long-range outlook”, linking to an article titled: “Legitimate snowstorms are in the forecast. It’s about time!” The evidence presented in the article is this: 



OK… good for Wyoming maybe, but it shows only spotty snow in Utah and Colorado, a moderate amount of snow in Vermont and virtually none in NH and Maine. So HOW THE FLIPPIN F--- can they say “snow coast to coast with a happy long rang look”????  

Open Snow is the worst. It’s just marketing. I'll stick with accuweather. Or you guys. I guess.


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## dlague (Nov 17, 2016)

Well it is kind of coast to coast but nothing says how much.  Is there ever a time where coast to coast would be blanketed?  Don't think so.  My guess is thebare using the term loosely.  That being said, a dusting of snow is snow.  Some places are going to get the goods and others will be minimal but that map looks pretty darn good compared to what we have been having.  I will take it.  There lots of excitement here in Colorado for the next ten days.

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## slatham (Nov 17, 2016)

And it looks like this is a map from Weatherbell! 

They are right that its a major shift from what we've seen but its a bit of hype. Then again they are the media......


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## mriceyman (Nov 17, 2016)

Well a foot of snow in cali and a foot + of snow in NY is as close to coast to coast as you can get without vt cashing in. They dont just throw maps but have guys give detailed reports for each region almost daily.. accu is nothing compared to that. Maybe just learn to read and not be a map whore. 


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## Los (Nov 17, 2016)

slatham said:


> And it looks like this is a map from Weatherbell!
> 
> They are right that its a major shift from what we've seen but its a bit of hype. Then again they are the media......



Right, that was my only point... 

But whatever... I just want to go skiing already.


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## skiberg (Nov 17, 2016)




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## skiberg (Nov 17, 2016)

Lets hope this is even possible, but they seem to suggest that models are starting to come into argument for some snow in higher elevations.


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## ALLSKIING (Nov 17, 2016)

Los said:


> Right, that was my only point...
> 
> But whatever... I just want to go skiing already.


Killington has been open for 20 days or so.....go get it

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## ScottySkis (Nov 17, 2016)

No snow coming.  

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## Tin (Nov 17, 2016)




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## Tin (Nov 17, 2016)

skiberg said:


>




I hypothesize Jay, Stowe, Wildcat, SB, and K have more than this on the ground by Tuesday PM.


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## dlague (Nov 17, 2016)

So he mountains here in CO got about 6-8 inches, the Front Range even got snow!  Colorado Springs got 2 so far.  This system is winding down but headed up towards the Great Lakes then over to New England.  Looks to start as rain then switch to snow.  There are two other systems right behind this one for Colorado over the next week.  Hopefully they track the same and bring the goods to New England too!

Things are starting to look up!


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## 4aprice (Nov 18, 2016)

dlague said:


> So he mountains here in CO got about 6-8 inches, the Front Range even got snow!  Colorado Springs got 2 so far.  This system is winding down but headed up towards the Great Lakes then over to New England.  Looks to start as rain then switch to snow.  There are two other systems right behind this one for Colorado over the next week.  Hopefully they track the same and bring the goods to New England too!
> 
> Things are starting to look up!



The Euro has a beautiful look to December from Utah to New England.  Could be a case of good things come to those who wait.  Never was upset as it was predicted to be a warm fall and got lots of things done but its nice to see it turning and am now pretty much ready to crank it up.  Will probably start up 1st weekend in December, 2 weeks later then planned (never planned on skiing T-day weekend anyway so not missing anything there) but much better then the late January start I got last year.  Happy trails everyone.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Tin (Nov 18, 2016)

Things have escalated a bit.


4k NAM nailed the Oct 27-28th system (love the elevation contrast), here it is through midnight Monday. Stuff starts early morning Sunday.






Total liquid on the GFS through Wednesday thanks to upslope after the ULL.  We wait and see...


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## slatham (Nov 18, 2016)

Euro is even more bullish, GFS maybe not as much. Either way a nice change and it will finally look and feel like winter.

Euro weeklies looking better for longer range over next 4 weeks. 

THINK SNOW!


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## Tin (Nov 18, 2016)

I'm not quite thinking of 2/24-26/2012 when bands set up from SB north and put 36" down at Stowe in 36 hours and 40" at Jay in 48 but it is looking great.


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## Cat in January (Nov 18, 2016)

Weird stuff going on up in the Arctic with record warmth.  Over in Siberia there still is that cold air.  How will the jet stream bend and will the cold come down to the NE?  My guess is that in January this becomes apparent.  Atlantic Ocean off the house is still pretty warm.


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## Tin (Nov 18, 2016)

Through Monday evening. Skeptical if they will really get that much.


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## benski (Nov 18, 2016)

Tin said:


> Through Monday evening. Skeptical if they will really get that much.



I hope so. Looks like Snow Ridge is getting hammered. Hoping to go there for the first time weekend after Thanksgiving, I am glad this message board turned me onto that place. I am getting so excited!


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## nhskier1969 (Nov 18, 2016)

Great read....
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...longer-harsher-winters-north-america/61622468

Hopefully its all starting this sunday..


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## Cornhead (Nov 19, 2016)

benski said:


> I hope so. Looks like Snow Ridge is getting hammered. Hoping to go there for the first time weekend after Thanksgiving, I am glad this message board turned me onto that place. I am getting so excited!


Don't get too excited, it is only 500ft of vert, sometimes you might even get stuck! We go there regularly, sorry I haven't replied to your PM's, I don't check them often. Send me your number I'll let you know next time we go. Looks like they may get 10-20" out of this one. My buddy is talking about earning turns at Song if they get enough. I'm not skiing till Friday, K or possibly somewhere else. 

Check Liftopia for deals at SR, we used to get half off with our Greek passes, not anymore. Still pretty cheap though.

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## benski (Nov 19, 2016)

Cornhead said:


> Don't get too excited, it is only 500ft of vert, sometimes you might even get stuck! We go there regularly, sorry I haven't replied to your PM's, I don't check them often. Send me your number I'll let you know next time we go. Looks like they may get 10-20" out of this one. My buddy is talking about earning turns at Song if they get enough. I'm not skiing till Friday, K or possibly somewhere else.
> 
> Check Liftopia for deals at SR, we used to get half off with our Greek passes, not anymore. Still pretty cheap though.
> 
> Sent from my XT1064 using AlpineZone mobile app



I thought you blocked pm's to be honest. they were missing from my sent pm's


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## jack97 (Nov 19, 2016)

Cat in January said:


> Weird stuff going on up in the Arctic with record warmth.  Over in Siberia there still is that cold air.  How will the jet stream bend and will the cold come down to the NE?  My guess is that in January this becomes apparent.  Atlantic Ocean off the house is still pretty warm.



The GFS is showing the cold temps rolling in next week, the week of Thanksgiving  and staying till the first week of Dec (per the last of its data runs). Long range forecasters are using other indices and altitude maps which show this pattern will stay for Dec. 

As for Arctic warmth and the Siberian snow cover, Cohen writes about this in the attached. Essentially, the fall season snow cover results in an albedo which reflects the sun light. This causes the warm air mass to move up and forms the Siberian high (pressure).  This high alters (weakens) the polar vortex such that the lower latitudes will get colder surface temps. Cohen talks about this in more detail, the key point in his hypothesis is the formation of the Siberian high during the fall. 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/FY11CTBSeminars/jcohen_062211.pdf


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## slatham (Nov 19, 2016)

Weatherbell is very bullish for this to be a December to remember and the longer range models and teleconnections are lending significant support finally. Not to mention the actual weather is turning - which in the Northeast looks to happen in about 14 hours wth winter storm watches and warnings hoisted.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 19, 2016)

https://m.facebook.com/groups/74130...369113662:tl_objid.1110018369113662&__tn__=*s


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## Not Sure (Nov 19, 2016)

A slushy whole 1" of snow so far. Nice to see flakes again!


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## mriceyman (Nov 19, 2016)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> A slushy whole 1" of snow so far. Nice to see flakes again!



Flakes all the way down to cnj.. last year first flakes happened in January .. good sign 


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## jack97 (Nov 20, 2016)

slatham said:


> Weatherbell is very bullish for this to be a December to remember and the longer range models and teleconnections are lending significant support finally.



Speaking of teleconnections, here's the AO since 1950 to present, the current belief is the timing  of when the AO goes negative which sets up the winter. Last season, iirc, around feb/march the bumps where frozen cement and we had a weekend with wind chill advisory (forgot when tho). Jan and Feb of this year, the index went negative. I remember Cohen posting that when it went negative. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ndex/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table


btw, here's the web page of gfs forecast, if it holds Nov is trending negative. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_mrf.shtml


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## Edd (Nov 20, 2016)

6" at Jiminy Peak this morning.


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## ss20 (Nov 20, 2016)

Edd said:


> 6" at Jiminy Peak this morning.
> 
> View attachment 21033



Damn.  They would've been a great Turkey Day choice.  They usually have a decent selection of terrain open.  Too bad they're not opening til Friday though.


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## Rowsdower (Nov 20, 2016)

https://www.facebook.com/Plattekill...87916947362/10154721112652363/?type=3&theater

Looks like Plattekill got about 6 inches as well.


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## Cornhead (Nov 20, 2016)

This was 7PM at our local defunct ski hill, Aqua Terra, formerly Innsbruck USA. 

Looks like we're in the bullseye, gonna earn a run or two after work tomorrow.





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## benski (Nov 20, 2016)

Cornhead said:


> This was 7PM at our local defunct ski hill, Aqua Terra, formerly Innsbruck USA.
> View attachment 21041
> Looks like we're in the bullseye, gonna earn a run or two after work tomorrow.
> 
> ...



Snowdrift! About 8-10 inches about a mile from there and only a little bit lower and dumping.


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## Cornhead (Nov 20, 2016)

benski said:


> Snowdrift! About 8-10 inches about a mile from there and only a little bit lower and dumping.


Perhaps, just happy to have something to drift, unlike last year.

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## Cornhead (Nov 21, 2016)

ACCUMULATIONS, ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY, HEAVIEST
THIS MORNING, BRINGING STORM TOTALS UP TO 10 TO 20 INCHES

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## dlague (Nov 21, 2016)

Good to see some of these amounts.  The start of this season for the northeast seems to be better than the months of February or March.  Not so much here in Colorado, but there is a pattern setting up that might work out well.

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## Smellytele (Nov 21, 2016)

dlague said:


> Good to see some of these amounts.  The start of this season for the northeast seems to be better than the months of February or March.  Not so much here in Colorado, but there is a pattern setting up that might work out well.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930P using AlpineZone mobile app



It took Mother Nature a while to figure out you moved there


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## dlague (Nov 21, 2016)

Smellytele said:


> It took Mother Nature a while to figure out you moved there


I was beginning to think I brought last winter with me.

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## ScottySkis (Nov 21, 2016)

dlague said:


> Good to see some of these amounts.  The start of this season for the northeast seems to be better than the months of February or March.  Not so much here in Colorado, but there is a pattern setting up that might work out well.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930P using AlpineZone mobile app


Their always SLC resort that always get the good s at least your close enough to drive in s day trip. On my two vacation s to Colorado got no snow. Went To Utah had ,100 inches in a week.


Cornhead said:


> ACCUMULATIONS, ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY, HEAVIEST
> THIS MORNING, BRINGING STORM TOTALS UP TO 10 TO 20 INCHES
> 
> Sent from my XT1064 using AlpineZone mobile app




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## dlague (Nov 21, 2016)

ScottySkis said:


> Their always SLC resort that always get the good s at least your close enough to drive in s day trip. On my two vacation s to Colorado got no snow. Went To Utah had ,100 inches in a week.
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk


Well the entire southwest has been dry and warm up until this past week including Utah.  BTW, SLC is not a day trip but more of a quick flight for a long weekend.  9 hour drive one way or 1.5 hour flight.

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## ScottySkis (Nov 22, 2016)

So this black Friday looking like more ice and non snow in Catskills at Hunter or mountain Sniw in south Vermont take advice of weather people here.

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## catsup948 (Nov 23, 2016)

ScottySkis said:


> So this black Friday looking like more ice and non snow in Catskills at Hunter or mountain Sniw in south Vermont take advice of weather people here.
> 
> Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk


Looks like it could stay all snow in the mountains.  It's not going to be anything hard though. This weekend could be something to watch for the mountains of NH and Maine.

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## Smellytele (Nov 25, 2016)

http://www.wmur.com/article/what-kind-of-winter-will-new-hampshire-have/8303082


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## catsup948 (Nov 27, 2016)

Late this week went from heavy hot rain to now weaker cold rain on the GFS.  Interesting.  Canadian is a nice snow storm for NNE. Canadian is wrong pretty much all the time though. 
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





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## 4aprice (Nov 27, 2016)

Nice storm coming through the Rockies.  If I'm not mistaken this one has no name, but the storm coming behind it does so maybe the conga line is starting up.  Hopefully NNE can cash in as well.  Locally looks like the wait continues.


Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## dlague (Nov 27, 2016)

4aprice said:


> Nice storm coming through the Rockies.  If I'm not mistaken this one has no name, but the storm coming behind it does so maybe the conga line is starting up.  Hopefully NNE can cash in as well.  Locally looks like the wait continues.
> 
> 
> Alex
> ...


Open Snow reported just that about two weeks ago.  So you are spot on IMO.  With jet stream set up as it is for now those will March from here to there, although could be more like mid Atlantic.  The jet stream is starting to drop further south over the northeast. 

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## ScottySkis (Nov 28, 2016)

Anyone want to educate d guess if j should drive from Mountain sniw this afternoon to Wildcat to ski powder or will be rain their to I just a guess.

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## dlague (Nov 28, 2016)

ScottySkis said:


> Anyone want to educate d guess if j should drive from Mountain sniw this afternoon to Wildcat to ski powder or will be rain their to I just a guess.
> 
> Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk



Well, if it snows it will not be the kind of powder we dream of, rather more like wet cement.  That being said it is looking pretty wet over the next few days in the Northeast, which is a bummer since the same systems brought snow out west.  Warmish end to November it seems into the first couple day s on December before temps get favorable again.  Looks like snow around Dec 5-6?

Cold is a loft out west from NM to WA.  It is producing 3-7 inches snow daily for the next couple days with Loveland getting 10 inches in the past 24 with more to come.  Another systems is going to deliver this weekend.  Hope this pattern moves into New England!


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## mriceyman (Nov 28, 2016)

dlague said:


> Well, if it snows it will not be the kind of powder we dream of, rather more like wet cement.  That being said it is looking pretty wet over the next few days in the Northeast, which is a bummer since the same systems brought snow out west.  Warmish end to November it seems into the first couple day s on December before temps get favorable again.  Looks like snow around Dec 5-6?
> 
> Cold is a loft out west from NM to WA.  It is producing 3-7 inches snow daily for the next couple days with Loveland getting 10 inches in the past 24 with more to come.  Another systems is going to deliver this weekend.  Hope this pattern moves into New England!



Once these next few days pass we should be good for awhile


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## bdfreetuna (Nov 30, 2016)

IDK if anyone here follows "Rebecca's Northeast weather and education page" on Facebook, but things look encouraging after today for a while.

Month of December looking cold with above average precip.


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## Not Sure (Nov 30, 2016)

It's been dry for a long time, Pouring again down here , 2 storms will leave over 3" rain . I guess that's a pattern change , just need some cold air ?

http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/11...ld-anomaly-forecast-across-almost-entire-usa/


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## dlague (Dec 1, 2016)

Looks like cold air is on its way in two phases around Dec 4th  at higher elevation and points north in New England then around Dec 12th  for all of New England.  Not seeing much snow accumulation over the next couple of weeks.

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## skibumski (Dec 1, 2016)

There's going to be some precipitation, and there's going to be some cold over the next couple of weeks.  We just need them to happen at the same time to get some solid base building in time for some robust holiday and January skiing.  Signals looking a little mixed but there's definitely still some potential there...


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## hammer (Dec 2, 2016)

Slow start again this year...whatever happened to the days when you had your pick of WRODs by this time?


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## ss20 (Dec 2, 2016)

hammer said:


> Slow start again this year...whatever happened to the days when you had your pick of WRODs by this time?



Next week at this time we'll have plenty of trails open...maybe some naturals too if Ma Nature cooperates.


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## 4aprice (Dec 2, 2016)

hammer said:


> Slow start again this year...whatever happened to the days when you had your pick of WRODs by this time?



Were they really that numerous Hammer?  I admit I'm a little picky about the WROD and don't really live in ski country, but I think I could count on one hand the amount of seasons I have skied before Thanksgiving and this will be my 50th season on skis  Seems like its always mid December before the season really starts.  My father attended Dartmouth in the 1940's, (WWII) and he told me they never were able to ski before Christmas Break.  With the cold coming next week its looking like the law of averages wins and it will play out that way again.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Abubob (Dec 2, 2016)

4aprice said:


> Were they really that numerous Hammer?  I admit I'm a little picky about the WROD and don't really live in ski country, but I think I could count on one hand the amount of seasons I have skied before Thanksgiving and this will be my 50th season on skis  Seems like its always mid December before the season really starts.  My father attended Dartmouth in the 1940's, (WWII) and he told me they never were able to ski before Christmas Break.  With the cold coming next week its looking like the law of averages wins and it will play out that way again.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



With respect to your Dad living before snowmaking was prevalent it was a difficult thing to ski before the Saturnalian festivities. However, in the last 50 years snowmaking has made the possibility of skiing by - if not before - turkey day almost a foregone conclusion. I grew if in central CT and we almost always went skiing Thanksgiving weekend. (please don't ask me for dates) Since moving to NH 10 years ago I've been skiing in Nov at least 5 times. Mostly at Cannon - once at Wildcat and once even at Ragged. Killington opens sometime in November ever since I can remember. So yeah they really are that numerous.


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## 4aprice (Dec 2, 2016)

Abubob said:


> With respect to your Dad living before snowmaking was prevalent it was a difficult thing to ski before the Saturnalian festivities. However, in the last 50 years snowmaking has made the possibility of skiing by - if not before - turkey day almost a foregone conclusion. I grew if in central CT and we almost always went skiing Thanksgiving weekend. (please don't ask me for dates) Since moving to NH 10 years ago I've been skiing in Nov at least 5 times. Mostly at Cannon - once at Wildcat and once even at Ragged. Killington opens sometime in November ever since I can remember. So yeah they really are that numerous.



I'm wrong then, ski away.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Abubob (Dec 2, 2016)

4aprice said:


> I'm wrong then, ski away.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Didn't mean to come down hard. Novembers openings are BECOMING more difficult however.



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## ScottySkis (Dec 2, 2016)

bdfreetuna said:


> IDK if anyone here follows "Rebecca's Northeast weather and education page" on Facebook, but things look encouraging after today for a while.
> 
> Month of December looking cold with above average precip.


I watched her for forcaster for a while now she good predicted weather 

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## snoseek (Dec 2, 2016)

ScottySkis said:


> I watched her for forcaster for a while now she good predicted weather
> 
> Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk



She definitely puts a lot of time into her forecast.


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## bdfreetuna (Dec 2, 2016)

Abubob said:


> Novembers openings are BECOMING more difficult however.



Why? Snowmaking isn't going anywhere. Are you making long term climate predictions based on an El Nino year?


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## Abubob (Dec 2, 2016)

bdfreetuna said:


> Why? Snowmaking isn't going anywhere. Are you making long term climate predictions based on an El Nino year?



Merely an observation. Not a prediction.


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## 4aprice (Dec 3, 2016)

Abubob said:


> Didn't mean to come down hard. Novembers openings are BECOMING more difficult however.
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone



Oh I don't think you are necessarily being hard.  My point really is that things have always been this way in the Northeast.  Yes snowmaking is great and we probably really don't see its total capabilities (though K just showed a lot with getting the WC course ready), but the weather has pretty much been the same.  Some of those times I have skied early were at Hunter Mt back in the days when they used to go for it with making snow.  They don't do that anymore.  This fall ended up as it was predicted, warm, and now with the cold seemingly on the doorstep it seems pretty normal to me. 

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Abubob (Dec 3, 2016)

4aprice said:


> Oh I don't think you are necessarily being hard.  My point really is that things have always been this way in the Northeast.  Yes snowmaking is great and we probably really don't see its total capabilities (though K just showed a lot with getting the WC course ready), but the weather has pretty much been the same.  Some of those times I have skied early were at Hunter Mt back in the days when they used to go for it with making snow.  They don't do that anymore.  This fall ended up as it was predicted, warm, and now with the cold seemingly on the doorstep it seems pretty normal to me.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



True that.


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## ss20 (Dec 3, 2016)

For the first time since the 2014-2015 season, the foreseeable weather future looks great!


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## dlague (Dec 4, 2016)

Abubob said:


> Didn't mean to come down hard. Novembers openings are BECOMING more difficult however.
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone


I have to disagree, lots of ski areas target early December, but there are lots that open in November still.  Heck, just last year in Colorado, Loveland for example shut down snowmaking operations by Thanksgiving weekend.  This year has been an unusually warm start everywhere I will give you that but I think Thanksgiving with become the target for many and early November the target for the few.

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## dlague (Dec 4, 2016)

Some have ragged on Open Snow but they have been dead on IMO.  They talked about a series of three systems that would change this here and boom Wolf Creek is 100% open Vail 45% open and many others are cranking open terrain by the day.  Now they are talking about a couple more systems here which will be awesome.

Now some of these have traveled northeast and warmed up but the last round we had looks to be headed your way and is looking good and with pattern set up like it is this will make a turn for the better in New England.

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## hammer (Dec 4, 2016)

4aprice said:


> Were they really that numerous Hammer?  I admit I'm a little picky about the WROD and don't really live in ski country, but I think I could count on one hand the amount of seasons I have skied before Thanksgiving and this will be my 50th season on skis  Seems like its always mid December before the season really starts.  My father attended Dartmouth in the 1940's, (WWII) and he told me they never were able to ski before Christmas Break.  With the cold coming next week its looking like the law of averages wins and it will play out that way again.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Guess I was basing this on feeder hills closer to home (southern/central NH).  They usually have good snowmaking capacity so all they need is a stretch of cold weather.  Sometimes they have a WROD available on Thanksgiving weekend but they usually are open by early December.  Seems the past few years the opening has been more like mid-December to Christmas.


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## kskis20 (Dec 7, 2016)

Looks like the cold will come in on sunday which will be great for expanding terrain plus sunday night into monday morning there might be a storm that will drop 4-10 inches in the green and white mountains


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## bdfreetuna (Dec 8, 2016)

kskis20 said:


> Looks like the cold will come in on sunday which will be great for expanding terrain plus sunday night into monday morning there might be a storm that will drop 4-10 inches in the green and white mountains



Monday night into Tuesday morning. And then maybe some more Tuesday night.


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## Tin (Dec 8, 2016)

Nickels Sun-Tues. Need to wait on the 12z. Close to rain for Wednesday-Thurs but the spine of VT could stay snow, only looking like .25-.5 of liquid so not an epic melt down/snow fall. It will be some heavy/wet conditions until the wind wrap around refreshes things. Hopefully a net gain. The GFS 4-6 days out has modeled systems too far north thus far this year (Oct 27-28/Nov 21/last week) so hopefully that is true again.


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## Kleetus (Dec 11, 2016)

No storm thread for this but looking good for Mt Snow for founders day. If only I didn't have to work...




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## dlague (Dec 29, 2016)

You guys have to be psyched about the weather coming in today and this about New England:

One of the biggest storms we’ve seen this season will hit this Friday, it will bring some of the best conditions we’ve seen all year. Sunday there is the chance for a good follow up storm, and way down the line we’re tracking a potential storm for next Tuesday.

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## prsboogie (Dec 29, 2016)

This looks great http://www.wmtw.com/article/noreast...-snow-rain-to-maine-and-new-hampshire/8540594


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## mriceyman (Dec 29, 2016)

Ya vt should do well but nh and maine should get buried. 3 years ago id be in vt already for the week. 2 kids under 3 and im sitting in my living room in jersey with 2 sick little guys. Meh


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## dlague (Dec 29, 2016)

dlague said:


> You guys have to be psyched about the weather coming in today and this about New England:
> 
> One of the biggest storms we’ve seen this season will hit this Friday, it will bring some of the best conditions we’ve seen all year. Sunday there is the chance for a good follow up storm, and way down the line we’re tracking a potential storm for next Tuesday.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930P using AlpineZone mobile app


http://blog.liftopia.com/new-englan...k&utm_medium=social&utm_content=20161228_blog

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## NYDB (Dec 29, 2016)

Looks like a pile o' shit blowing in Tuesday 1/3.  Hope it gets colder, its still too warm.


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## Edd (Dec 29, 2016)




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## Los (Dec 30, 2016)

NY DirtBag said:


> Looks like a pile o' shit blowing in Tuesday 1/3.  Hope it gets colder, its still too warm.



Yep. Way too warm. The measly 6 inches we got in the upper valley is already melting and will probably be gone by Tuesday.


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## dlague (Jan 4, 2017)

Looks like another round of bullet proof trails coming up for the Northeast  but the good thing is this time around the cold will be sustained and no threat of a January thaw in sight.  Not a lot of New snow, but cold which is great for snow making.

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## 4aprice (Jan 5, 2017)

dlague said:


> Looks like another round of bullet proof trails coming up for the Northeast  but the good thing is this time around the cold will be sustained and no threat of a January thaw in sight.  Not a lot of New snow, but cold which is great for snow making.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930P using AlpineZone mobile app



Meanwhile out in California, its just gaudy numbers like Diamond Peak with 57" over the last 48 HOURS.   Expect some of that is headed your way Dave.  Instructed the boy to stay out of the back country when we sent him back Wednesday.

 Nice cold shot here should probably allow the local hill to get to 100%, which is good.   They can then focus on resurfacing and hopefully some bumps so I can practice for more NNE weekends and trip #1 to Colorado beginning of Feb.

Hopefully Feb will be New England's turn and it will rock into April.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## dlague (Jan 5, 2017)

There is a snow train across the country.  California's snow is also brining the foods to Colorado and working eastward.  Cross fingers for New England although looks like it will be a bit further south and graze NE.

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## Rowsdower (Jan 6, 2017)

Long range it looks good for NE excepting maybe next Wednesday. 

Poconos get screwed, as per usual. I don't mind too much but I have to arrange a work ski trip and if the weather doesn't cooperate it'd be a bummer.


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## NYDB (Jan 6, 2017)

Yeah, Wed 1/11 looks like rain will make it all the way to Canada.


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## bdfreetuna (Jan 7, 2017)

NY DirtBag said:


> Yeah, Wed 1/11 looks like rain will make it all the way to Canada.



If I was booked for next weekend I'd be a little disappointed but I think we're in an overall productive snowy weather time and even counting the rain for many places this week will be a net gain. The rain looks to get covered up with snow without too long a wait also.


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## skiberg (Jan 7, 2017)

I hope so but all I see on the long term is rain storm after rain storm.


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## dlague (Jan 7, 2017)

Well at least southern NH is getting a little snow tonight.

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## NYDB (Jan 8, 2017)

bdfreetuna said:


> If I was booked for next weekend I'd be a little disappointed but I think we're in an overall productive snowy weather time and even counting the rain for many places this week will be a net gain. The rain looks to get covered up with snow without too long a wait also.



I would agree.  Good potential for snowfall MLK weekend.


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## tnt1234 (Jan 8, 2017)

My next long outing is last week in Jan.  Looks like a warm up around the 18-20th might be a spoiler.  Darn it.


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## 4aprice (Jan 8, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> My next long outing is last week in Jan.  Looks like a warm up around the 18-20th might be a spoiler.  Darn it.



It's a January thaw.  They happen almost every year.  Natural terrain may go in and out of play but anything with good snowmaking should be fine.  After This past weekend especially today I'm looking forward to a little warmth to ski in for a couple of days.  February is usually the northeast's time.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## dlague (Jan 8, 2017)

Yup it happens every year!  However,  2014-2015 started with rain in January.  It kicked ass after that.

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## Los (Jan 10, 2017)

not good: 

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2017/01/big-changes-for-vermont-weather-and-not.html


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## tnt1234 (Jan 10, 2017)

Los said:


> not good:
> 
> http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2017/01/big-changes-for-vermont-weather-and-not.html



Dang.

Hopefully he's wrong.

Short term looks terrible for us flat landers.  heading to the pokes for a day this saturday.  Gonna be 47 and raining weds> thurs and 25F on saturday.

Oh well.


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## skiberg (Jan 10, 2017)

He is generally very good at longer term trends. I think we are screwed for a bit. Keep the Slalom skis sharp.


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## skiberg (Jan 10, 2017)

Just checked with friend of mine. PSNH predicting warm and rainy for foreseeable future. Only hope is forecasts are wrong. 


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## ALLSKIING (Jan 10, 2017)

Winters not over by a long shot. Most long term forecasts I've seen turn back to cold the later part of Jan. It will be a late winter this year.

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## dlague (Jan 10, 2017)

You guys are in a see saw season.   Cold, snow, warm up, rain, refreeze and repeat.

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## 4aprice (Jan 10, 2017)

ALLSKIING said:


> Winters not over by a long shot. Most long term forecasts I've seen turn back to cold the later part of Jan. It will be a late winter this year.
> 
> Sent from my LG-H901 using AlpineZone mobile app



Exactly.  I've never seen a bell to bell eastern winter of good snow.  We always have had thaws.  Joshua Segal has a list of winters and what they were like (he goes so far as the rank them).  I once saw a chart that showed the percentage of terrain open over an entire season, compiled of several seasons, (eastern) and no where was it 100% the whole time, and most of the times it was 100% were in February and March.  I sincerely believe we will have a good 2nd half and an excellent spring.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## dlague (Jan 10, 2017)

Well remain optimiostic, remember 2014-15 season?  January was terrible all the way through January 18th and then the temps dropped and winter arrived and the season ended up being great!

January 2015

https://www.wunderground.com/histor...reqdb.zip=05751&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999


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## Jully (Jan 10, 2017)

dlague said:


> You guys are in a see saw season.   Cold, snow, warm up, rain, refreeze and repeat.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930P using AlpineZone mobile app



The classic New England pattern!! 14 - 15 is still possible. At least we are getting bouts of cold now though.


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## 4aprice (Jan 10, 2017)

dlague said:


> Well remain optimiostic, remember 2014-15 season?  January was terrible all the way through January 18th and then the temps dropped and winter arrived and the season ended up being great!
> 
> January 2015
> 
> https://www.wunderground.com/histor...reqdb.zip=05751&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999



Meanwhile in Colorado my son just got stuck on the west side of Berthoud Pass.  Had to make him a hotel reservation as US 40 is closed due to a 2nd slide today.  Sure enjoying the pictures out of the Sierra too with Jim Cantori up to his waist in snow at the base of Heavenly.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## catsup948 (Jan 10, 2017)

I would say it has been a pretty decent start to the winter for many.  Reports from Northern Vermont and white mountain resorts have been very good. I have had several powder days in NH and even Massachusetts which is good for before mid Jan.  That being said after tonight's wet snow things aren't looking great for the next ten days or so.  Hopefully some changes take place end of the month.


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## tnt1234 (Jan 11, 2017)

Yeah, I've had a good season so far - early days in the catskills, great powder day at Hunter with Claire's open and zero crowds....good conditions at sugarbush over x-mas (which is always a crap shoot) including hike-to castle rock run that was the highlight of the season, and a great day at MRG with 80% open, buttery snow everywhere, and a few nice tree runs... but now I want more!!!  Trying to plan guy's weekend in VT and that's like herding cats between everyone's schedule, and we want to go with good skiing....

Hopefully something will turn here and we can make late Jan, first week in Feb work, otherwise, probably push off to March.


----------



## dlague (Jan 11, 2017)

I have to admit in early to mid December there were days where I was thinking - sure now that I have moved they are getting powder days in December and the season is going to kick ass.  Kind of a bummer to read about the recent cycles.  NE needs a great winter.


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## snoseek (Jan 11, 2017)

Honestly the skiing where I've been the past couple weeks has been pretty good.

Besides I'm pretty sure a pattern change is about to happen. Rebecca seems to think so and thus far she is on point.

Snow is mostly gone at the coast. I tuned up my bike this morning and plan on riding dirt as soon as the grounds firms back up this weekend


----------



## Tin (Jan 11, 2017)

Just a bad few days at a popular time. This season has been incredible this year, don't mind a few bad days. Good signals for Tues-Weds.


----------



## tnt1234 (Jan 11, 2017)

Yeah, I'm stressing about end of Jan or First Week in Feb.  Those are my next shots at a VT trip, and the long range forecasts right now are pretty crappy.

Hopefully they turn.  

Who is Rebecca?


----------



## ALLSKIING (Jan 11, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Yeah, I'm stressing about end of Jan or First Week in Feb.  Those are my next shots at a VT trip, and the long range forecasts right now are pretty crappy.
> 
> Hopefully they turn.
> 
> Who is Rebecca?


That's actually the time frame they said the pattern will change again. Rebecca's north east weather on FB

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----------



## bdfreetuna (Jan 11, 2017)

+1 for Rebecca


----------



## dlague (Jan 11, 2017)

Recommended by Scotty.


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----------



## Los (Jan 11, 2017)

The latest: http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2017/01/atrocious-outlook-through-weekend-of.html?m=1


----------



## dlague (Jan 12, 2017)

Los said:


> The latest: http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2017/01/atrocious-outlook-through-weekend-of.html?m=1


That blows for NE!

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## 4aprice (Jan 12, 2017)

dlague said:


> That blows for NE!
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930P using AlpineZone mobile app



I honestly don't get what is surprising about this or the panic that some are experiencing.  Looks like a typical 2 week January thaw that happens almost every year.  Snowmaking terrain should be fine.  I plan on skiing right through it and enjoying the warmer temps while they are here.  JB is calling for an "American Pie" February.  At some point I would expect the west to calm and a big high pressure to form over the inter mountain west.  The atmospheres reaction to that would be a nice trough over the east.  We're not even at the 1/2 way point yet, give it some time.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 12, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Yeah,* I'm stressing about end of Jan or First Week in Feb. * Those are my next shots at a VT trip, and the long range forecasts right now are pretty crappy.



Fear not.



> Joe Bastardi - This pattern Jan 25 on has me needing shots and leash cause I am like a rabid dog that hasnt eaten and sees red meat



Another met I follow thinks January 30 - February 7th is a great incubator timeframe for a northeast snowstorm.


----------



## tnt1234 (Jan 12, 2017)

4aprice said:


> I honestly don't get what is surprising about this or the panic that some are experiencing.  Looks like a typical 2 week January thaw that happens almost every year.  Snowmaking terrain should be fine.  I plan on skiing right through it and enjoying the warmer temps while they are here.  JB is calling for an "American Pie" February.  At some point I would expect the west to calm and a big high pressure to form over the inter mountain west.  The atmospheres reaction to that would be a nice trough over the east.  We're not even at the 1/2 way point yet, give it some time.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



It's not surprising - it's just panic inducing when you only have a few chances for an extended weekend trip to the NEK...


----------



## tnt1234 (Jan 12, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Fear not.
> 
> 
> 
> Another met I follow thinks January 30 - February 7th is a great incubator timeframe for a northeast snowstorm.



Nice!


----------



## slatham (Jan 12, 2017)

Solid indications in MJO and teleconnections and forecasted stratospheric warming that a significant pattern change is coming in the 10-15 day period. Even the CSV2 has it getting colder end of Jan right through Feb. I hope the damage from the thaw isn't too bad and the storm around the 23rd is snow to kick it all off.


----------



## dlague (Jan 17, 2017)

Well it looks like skiing back east should be comfortable.  Will be a bit strange due to cold temps at night but above freezing during the day through the weekend.  Then the fun starts after that on Monday and Tuesday.

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## NYDB (Jan 19, 2017)

Looks like another miracle taking place.  Forecasts are trending towards mostly frozen precip next week.    At least no huge rain event and meltdown.


----------



## Abubob (Jan 19, 2017)

NY DirtBag said:


> Looks like another miracle taking place.  Forecasts are trending towards mostly frozen precip next week.    At least no huge rain event and meltdown.


It's one of those years. It _*wants*_ to snow here. I remember snow flurries when the temperature was 40 earlier in the season. Even the rain events we've had haven't been meltdowns.

Well, _*northern*_ New England anyway.


----------



## 4aprice (Jan 19, 2017)

Abubob said:


> It's one of those years. It _*wants*_ to snow here. I remember snow flurries when the temperature was 40 earlier in the season. Even the rain events we've had haven't been meltdowns.
> 
> Well, _*northern*_ New England anyway.



I agree with the want to snow.  I've seen this as far south as NNJ this year with a couple of little events.  Just enough cold lurking around to help.

It's my opinion, from things I have read that, once past this shot of the moisture coming into the west the spigot gets turned off for a while out there, and high pressure, which loves to build over a large snow pack, takes over the west, resulting in trough for the east.  How many winters have acted this way before and really started up in this time period (last 1/3 of Jan, first 1/3 Feb) ? Makes sense. February is always when the storms come to the east and the ride gets fun.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## slatham (Jan 19, 2017)

4aprice said:


> I agree with the want to snow.  I've seen this as far south as NNJ this year with a couple of little events.  Just enough cold lurking around to help.
> 
> It's my opinion, from things I have read that, once past this shot of the moisture coming into the west the spigot gets turned off for a while out there, and high pressure, which loves to build over a large snow pack, takes over the west, resulting in trough for the east.  How many winters have acted this way before and really started up in this time period (last 1/3 of Jan, first 1/3 Feb) ? Makes sense. February is always when the storms come to the east and the ride gets fun.
> 
> ...



12/13, 13/14, 14/15 all started late. Each benefited from a positive PNA, which is the western US /western Cananda high that sends a trough into the east. The models are forecasting just that starting late next week. Also negative EPO, which this season has been a main driver - cold when negative, warm when positive. Fingers crossed it comes about and stays!


----------



## tnt1234 (Jan 19, 2017)

forecasts improving for next week...


----------



## slatham (Jan 20, 2017)

Models seem locked in that its a coastal and there is cool high to north but no widespread cold. Key is track as the recent runs pushing track back west which is warmer. But the models are likely to flip and flop so can't get too happy or sad based of one run. By tomorrow the NAM should be locked in as well as Euro/GFS/Canadian and we will see where they are taking it and whether there is consensus.


----------



## 4aprice (Jan 20, 2017)

slatham said:


> Models seem locked in that its a coastal and there is cool high to north but no widespread cold. Key is track as the recent runs pushing track back west which is warmer. But the models are likely to flip and flop so can't get too happy or sad based of one run. By tomorrow the NAM should be locked in as well as Euro/GFS/Canadian and we will see where they are taking it and whether there is consensus.



How about instead of a snow to rain scenario, we see a rain to snow?  Hard to predict accumulations with that.  JB posted a pretty juicy ECMWF map on his twitter page.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## 4aprice (Jan 20, 2017)

slatham said:


> 12/13, 13/14, 14/15 all started late. Each benefited from a positive PNA, which is the western US /western Cananda high that sends a trough into the east. The models are forecasting just that starting late next week. Also negative EPO, which this season has been a main driver - cold when negative, warm when positive. Fingers crossed it comes about and stays!



One of my favorites 1993 has been mentioned in the Analogs.  If that happens the mood around here will shift drastically.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## dlague (Jan 24, 2017)

Your weather is very weird this January.  What looked to be a rainy day in New England,  appears to be snow followed by freezing rain or mix and end possibly as rain. Then to top it all off a warming trend to follow then getting to borderline freezing for the weekend.  That should firm things up again. Then no significant snow to follow.

It does not look like this storm deliver much from reports that I am seeing?

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----------



## fbrissette (Jan 24, 2017)

dlague said:


> It does not look like this storm deliver much from reports that I am seeing?
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930P using AlpineZone mobile app



Severely under-performing for Northern Vermont and Quebec.


----------



## 180 (Jan 24, 2017)

Surprise powder day at Hunter.  4 - 6 inches of sleet and snow covered everything nicely.


----------



## dlague (Jan 24, 2017)

Looks like the winner this time was Sugarloaf 5-7 with a couple more expected.


----------



## 4aprice (Jan 24, 2017)

dlague said:


> Your weather is very weird this January.  What looked to be a rainy day in New England,  appears to be snow followed by freezing rain or mix and end possibly as rain. Then to top it all off a warming trend to follow then getting to borderline freezing for the weekend.  That should firm things up again. Then no significant snow to follow.
> 
> It does not look like this storm deliver much from reports that I am seeing?
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930P using AlpineZone mobile app



It never was supposed to deliver.  According to Sno Country about 5-inches in S Vermont with what I would imagine is sleet and some rain, slop so to speak, probably good for the base.  The warmth is a one day bump and then it looked like maybe a little more slop turning this time to snow at the end of the week.  I'm optimistic that it could be a good weekend coming up.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 24, 2017)

dlague said:


> It *does not look like this storm deliver much from reports that I am seeing?*



Giant snow hole over much of ski country / Murphy's Law.

   Smuggs is reporting 4" though, and Whiteface is up to 8" and still coming down.  Not sure if it's enough to make me switch plans and hit Whiteface instead of Jay Peak (reporting 2" so far), but I'll be monitoring it.  

There should me more to come through much of the evening, so I think n.VT may catch up a bit, plus through the next few days there are predicted snowshowers (not to mention L.E.S. bands) so I think n.VT from Smuggs/Stowe to Canada will end up okay.  I think it might sneak up on people in dribs & drabs.


----------



## benski (Jan 24, 2017)

Greek Peek had 5 inches of  cement. Enough to ski the natural snow trails, though they were closed wasn't hitting the ground Zeus and Hercules though I had to jump water-bars on Hercules.


----------



## snoseek (Jan 24, 2017)

More cement is fine. The base at my regular joint is shaping up pretty decent all things considered. Maybe a little bit of fluff in the coming days, some actual cold...and then maybe just maybe down the road....


----------



## dlague (Jan 24, 2017)

By the looks of it any water in the new snow should drain out and reduce the chances of it turning ice on Sunday.

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----------



## bdfreetuna (Jan 24, 2017)

dlague said:


> It does not look like this storm deliver much from reports that I am seeing?



January has been pretty bad, but it could have been worse. Mountains have got enough refills (including this last storm) to keep them mostly viable... or at least keeping the base from completely evaporating due to the relative warmth. 5 inches of dense snow is what most mountains needed right now to set us up with a reasonable base to build upon for what we hope and expect is the return of winter any day now.

We were doing better in December when it was cold and lake effect snow was doing it's thing and mountains were getting surprise dumps. We didn't get a blow torch like last year but that was a longish thaw and the rain and fog didn't help, mostly by causing mediocre skiing conditions even when there was plenty of snow.

Peak of the season so far is 2 last weeks of December and 1st week of January.

BTW this is the point in the season I flip from optimist to realist. Better to set myself up to be pleasantly surprised once again, right?


----------



## dlague (Jan 24, 2017)

bdfreetuna said:


> January has been pretty bad, but it could have been worse. Mountains have got enough refills (including this last storm) to keep them mostly viable... or at least keeping the base from completely evaporating due to the relative warmth. 5 inches of dense snow is what most mountains needed right now to set us up with a reasonable base to build upon for what we hope and expect is the return of winter any day now.
> 
> We were doing better in December when it was cold and lake effect snow was doing it's thing and mountains were getting surprise dumps. We didn't get a blow torch like last year but that was a longish thaw and the rain and fog didn't help, mostly by causing mediocre skiing conditions even when there was plenty of snow.
> 
> ...


A former co-worker back east was at Loon and said the snow was melting quickly.  He noticed several this spots on trails which is not good for extending the season.  Cross fingers that February and March are good snow months.

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----------



## deadheadskier (Jan 24, 2017)

At least at Wildcat, Ive enjoyed January more than December. December had double the natural snowfall, but the snow we've gotten in January has been more useful as the mountain maintained a lot of the base it built in December, so terrain options have been better. We didn't get hit with a lot of crushing events other areas have. Mountain has been basically 95% open the past three weeks both on and off map and outside of MLK weekend the skiing surfaces have been pretty good.  Overall I feel pretty lucky

I know things have been poor in Southern New England and Northern VT hasn't gotten the same dumps as early season.

Really as long as it stays cold, 6-8" a week (more would obviously be great) through middle of March is all that's needed to make for a respectable peak season and a promising spring. 



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----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 26, 2017)




----------



## 4aprice (Jan 26, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


>



This is where we get the rain to snow scenario as the cold spills in.  Think the weekend has a very promising look to it and the "spine" might do well (very well north, but good the entire length).

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## dlague (Jan 26, 2017)

Meanwhile in Colorado - don't quit on me now!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 26, 2017)

4aprice said:


> This is where we get the rain to snow scenario as the cold spills in.  Think the weekend has a very promising look to it and the "spine" might do well (very well north, but good the entire length).



No rAin with elevation.  This is why I'm taking tomorrow off  and am
en route to n.VT.  I believe this will outperForm expectations and catch people by surprise.


----------



## Tin (Jan 26, 2017)

Seriously, I bet stowe north gets 18+ by Sunday, they are probably already around 4" from this afternoon.


----------



## benski (Jan 26, 2017)

How do Gore and Whiteface fare with the lake effect snow? I am probably going to Snow Ridge but those are two mountain I want to try out also.


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## Tin (Jan 26, 2017)

benski said:


> How do Gore and Whiteface fare with the lake effect snow? I am probably going to Snow Ridge but those are two mountain I want to try out also.




Everywhere is going to be great. I would go to Tug though, just for the chance of 3'+ lol.


----------



## benski (Jan 26, 2017)

Tin said:


> Everywhere is going to be great. I would go to Tug though, just for the chance of 3'+ lol.



Would be a lot easier if you were in Binghamton.


----------



## benski (Jan 26, 2017)

Tin said:


> Everywhere is going to be great. I would go to Tug though, just for the chance of 3'+ lol.



That was was part curious and part plan b. I think snow ridge should fall into place pretty easily. Maybe I can pull off both but that would be difficult.


----------



## snoseek (Jan 27, 2017)

Looks like a nice refresher which is good because we need it. 

It also looks as the cold is going to stay put. All we need now is a good widespread snowstorm but I don't see a whole lot in the forecast (for NH anyhow). 

Maybe time for some snowgun action


----------



## mriceyman (Jan 28, 2017)

Next weekend into early next week chance for a storm


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## albert a ripper (Jan 29, 2017)

clipper coming through tuesday night into wednesday.   then possible snow event next sunday into monday.   cross your fingers!


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 29, 2017)

Well that was freaking fantastic.  Must have been over 2 feet at Jay Peak in less than a 48 hour period.  Visibility was poor yesterday up top, but the trees were loaded with snow.  Wish I didnt have to come home.


----------



## fbrissette (Jan 30, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Well that was freaking fantastic.  Must have been over 2 feet at Jay Peak in less than a 48 hour period.  Visibility was poor yesterday up top, but the trees were loaded with snow.  Wish I didnt have to come home.



Epic week-end.  Saturday was heaven.   Hit Big Jay Sunday morning with bottomless lines.

To those who care about Jay Peak, just learned that all West Bowl plans have officially been cancelled by LHR (big surprise...).  They now plan to operate the resort for another 2 years to increase profits.  Expect a sale in Spring 2019.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 30, 2017)

^ Was it a Canadian school vacation week?  Lines Sunday were worse than normal and there seemed to be abnormal numbers of Quebecois.  I didn't get there that late, and I had to park at the golf course clubhouse, where I've never parked before.  Then I noticed at about 1pm they posted on FB to not come up due to lack of parking (which seemed odd, because not many people come up after 1pm, and if you do I'm sure you could probably find parking given some folks leave after lunch).


----------



## bdfreetuna (Jan 30, 2017)

Only lines I waited in Sunday were for the Jet. Maybe at the Flyer I had to wait 3-4 chairs once or twice. Bonnie usually was ski on. Didn't take the tram though. Didn't seem to notice more canucks than usual either (as in, there are always lot of canucks there).

Parking was not an issue as I arrived in time for first chair.

Were you taking the tram a lot BenedictGomez?


----------



## fbrissette (Jan 30, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> ^ Was it a Canadian school vacation week?  Lines Sunday were worse than normal and there seemed to be abnormal numbers of Quebecois.  I didn't get there that late, and I had to park at the golf course clubhouse, where I've never parked before.  Then I noticed at about 1pm they posted on FB to not come up due to lack of parking (which seemed odd, because not many people come up after 1pm, and if you do I'm sure you could probably find parking given some folks leave after lunch).



No Quebec holiday this past week-end.   Lots of day trippers since this was by far the best snow close to Montreal.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 30, 2017)

bdfreetuna said:


> Were you taking the tram a lot BenedictGomez?



Never.  The last time I took the tram was in I believe the 2013/14 ski season!  I'd take it occasionally if not for the fact I only ski Jay on weekends, and the tram on weekends = death.  It was busy though; the line for the Flyer was up the hill before lunch, and the Tram line was pretty crazy.  All of Jay's overflow parking lots (5 I think?) were filled, so it was definitely a busy day.   The fact they posted to Facebook telling people to please not come up for the afternoon is pretty telling.


----------



## tnt1234 (Jan 31, 2017)

How's the storm around Feb 8 looking for NEK?

Weather.com now showing some rain mixed in....planning on heading north 2/12 for a few days.  Hope it changes to snow....


----------



## tnt1234 (Jan 31, 2017)

How's the storm around Feb 8 looking for NEK?

Weather.com now showing some rain mixed in....planning on heading north 2/12 for a few days.  Hope it changes to snow....


----------



## mriceyman (Jan 31, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> How's the storm around Feb 8 looking for NEK?
> 
> Weather.com now showing some rain mixed in....planning on heading north 2/12 for a few days.  Hope it changes to snow....



Im heading north the same weekend so thats why next week looks whacked.. monday chance for snow.. Wednesday chance for a lakes cutter and some rain.. friday on the line between good (dense) snows and rain.. hopefully the Wednesday storm comes back to a better solution


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----------



## tnt1234 (Jan 31, 2017)

mriceyman said:


> Im heading north the same weekend so thats why next week looks whacked.. monday chance for snow.. Wednesday chance for a lakes cutter and some rain.. friday on the line between good (dense) snows and rain.. hopefully the Wednesday storm comes back to a better solution
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone




Where are you headed?  weather.com has friday cold for sure.

I'd like to see that wednesday rain disappear.....ugh....


----------



## slatham (Jan 31, 2017)

8+ days away you are better using tea leaves. Last weeks snow/sleet event was 100% warm r*&% on all the models 8 days prior !


----------



## tnt1234 (Jan 31, 2017)

slatham said:


> 8+ days away you are better using tea leaves. Last weeks snow/sleet event was 100% warm r*&% on all the models 8 days prior !



I know...but this is all part of the juju that makes it happen.  If you don't start worrying about it early, you'll screw it up....


----------



## mriceyman (Jan 31, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> I know...but this is all part of the juju that makes it happen.  If you don't start worrying about it early, you'll screw it up....



Lol i hear that.. the Wednesday cutter is pretty clear on the gfs and cmc.. friday is a continuation of that storm that starts as rain and transitions to snow.. lets hope it gets better.. think im doing jay on sat and smuggs sunday.. looks like it could be a windy day saturday too


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----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 31, 2017)

The GFS completely flipped today and went back to the "west gets tons of snow and the east gets shafted" pattern, so hopefully that turns out to be wrong.


----------



## Kleetus (Jan 31, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> The GFS completely flipped today and went back to the "west gets tons of snow and the east gets shafted" pattern, so hopefully that turns out to be wrong.



I saw that too and sure hope it's wrong. Showing a blowtorch with 50+ all the way up through Quebec on next Wednesday as of now


----------



## dlague (Jan 31, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> The GFS completely flipped today and went back to the "west gets tons of snow and the east gets shafted" pattern, so hopefully that turns out to be wrong.



And the problem is?


----------



## tnt1234 (Jan 31, 2017)

might try to switch trip to this weekend....looking worse and worse.


----------



## Rowsdower (Jan 31, 2017)

We were gonna be in Vt for a week starting the 9th. 

Should we bag it and move it back a couple weeks or is it too early to say?


----------



## dlague (Jan 31, 2017)

So what's up with is round of wet weather?  It looked like everything was going to stay colder.  It is going to be February.

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----------



## JDMRoma (Jan 31, 2017)

dlague said:


> So what's up with is round of wet weather?  It looked like everything was going to stay colder.  It is going to be February.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930P using AlpineZone mobile app



Well there's Always March !


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----------



## dlague (Jan 31, 2017)

JDMRoma said:


> Well there's Always March !
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


While January has been a mixed bag for NE, I hope you get your December back.

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----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 1, 2017)

Well we canceled. Maybe I'll use the time off and book out West although its on short notice.


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 1, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> We were gonna be in Vt for a week starting the 9th.
> 
> Should we bag it and move it back a couple weeks or is it too early to say?



Wednesday is right on the bubble right now.  

Might be a nail biter.

I don't have many weekends free to get to N. VT, so I'm really hoping this turns around and we score one more turnaround this year....


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 1, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Wednesday is right on the bubble right now.
> 
> Might be a nail biter.
> 
> I don't have many weekends free to get to N. VT, so I'm really hoping this turns around and we score one more turnaround this year....



I'm seeing 40 and rain all the way up to Canada which is pretty far past the margin where it could swing back for me.


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## Edd (Feb 1, 2017)

On the 9th I'm seeing a high of 30 in Jackson, NH.


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 1, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> I'm seeing 40 and rain all the way up to Canada which is pretty far past the margin where it could swing back for me.



Where are you seeing that?  Weather.com has Jay with a high of 30F on Weds. with wintery mix.  This is an improvement from yesterday which had rain.


----------



## NYDB (Feb 1, 2017)

yeah next week is improving.  hopefully 3 miracles in a row


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 1, 2017)

NY DirtBag said:


> yeah next week is improving.  hopefully 3 miracles in a row



dare we dream?


----------



## fbrissette (Feb 1, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> dare we dream?



Flying out to Revelstoke B.C. next Wednesday.   I wish you the best, but I don't care how it turns out ! :dunce:


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 1, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Where are you seeing that?  Weather.com has Jay with a high of 30F on Weds. with wintery mix.  This is an improvement from yesterday which had rain.



I'm looking at Stowe which has 39 and rain. Jay says 35 and sleet/freezing rain.

This:

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/gfs192hr_sfc_ptyp.gif

Does not look promising even if its a week out.


----------



## dlague (Feb 1, 2017)

fbrissette said:


> Flying out to Revelstoke B.C. next Wednesday.   I wish you the best, but I don't care how it turns out ! :dunce:



That is almost as bad as me saying - I do not care about the northeast all season long!


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 1, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> I'm looking at Stowe which has 39 and rain. Jay says 35 and sleet/freezing rain.
> 
> This:
> 
> ...




ugh.


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 1, 2017)

fbrissette said:


> Flying out to Revelstoke B.C. next Wednesday.   I wish you the best, but I don't care how it turns out ! :dunce:



That's the way to do it....

God damn east coast....


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 1, 2017)

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com


----------



## fbrissette (Feb 1, 2017)

dlague said:


> That is almost as bad as me saying - I do not care about the northeast all season long!



You don't have to care  but I do since I will be coming back !


----------



## mriceyman (Feb 1, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> I'm looking at Stowe which has 39 and rain. Jay says 35 and sleet/freezing rain.
> 
> This:
> 
> ...



Its a week out and every run has been an improvement.. yesterday it was far worse.. little steps from here on in and it will be a great week for c-n vt..all of vt should see snow even if it turns to rain for a portion 


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## andrec10 (Feb 1, 2017)

At least its an improvement over last winter! It will snow since I will be in Snowbird next week.


----------



## JDMRoma (Feb 1, 2017)

Hopefully improvements for Summit


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 1, 2017)

mriceyman said:


> *Its a week out and every run has been an improvement.. yesterday it was far worse..* little steps from here on in and it will be a great week for c-n vt..all of vt should see snow even if it turns to rain for a portion



At this point I dont even care if it rains some, given how terrible the model runs looked just a day or two ago with a deluge of pouring rain, this is a fantastic improvement. 

 Given the trend-is-your-friend aspect of these things, it wouldnt be a complete shock if it turns out rather snowy and next weekend winds up being fantastic.  Fingers crossed while waiting to see the 00z runs come out to see if we get stasis (or improvement) over the 12z/18z runs.


----------



## mriceyman (Feb 2, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> At this point I dont even care if it rains some, given how terrible the model runs looked just a day or two ago with a deluge of pouring rain, this is a fantastic improvement.
> 
> Given the trend-is-your-friend aspect of these things, it wouldnt be a complete shock if it turns out rather snowy and next weekend winds up being fantastic.  Fingers crossed while waiting to see the 00z runs come out to see if we get stasis (or improvement) over the 12z/18z runs.



The 00z runs definitely werent worse.. keep on chugging and hopefully i get good/great conditions in Next weekend


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## tnt1234 (Feb 2, 2017)

Where do you guys see these 'runs' and how long till they get incorporated into the forecast websites?

I see weather.com got a little worse this morning, with higher temps on Weds. for Stowe.


----------



## wtcobb (Feb 2, 2017)

At least Phil has a good outlook.


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 2, 2017)

Runs look marginally better but still have a changeover to ice/rain Wednesday. 

Have to hope for some snow on the front/back end of this thing but so far not looking good.


----------



## mriceyman (Feb 2, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> Runs look marginally better but still have a changeover to ice/rain Wednesday.
> 
> Have to hope for some snow on the front/back end of this thing but so far not looking good.



Alot can and will change in a 5 days.. its been trending better since the awful runs tuesday


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## mriceyman (Feb 2, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Where do you guys see these 'runs' and how long till they get incorporated into the forecast websites?
> 
> I see weather.com got a little worse this morning, with higher temps on Weds. for Stowe.



Tropicaltidbits.com
Go to forecast models.. global models go out to 300+ hours (which is fantasy land) 
Free models worth looking at are the gfs and cmc(gem) 

Weather.coms forecast for next Wednesday will change basically every 12 hours. 6 days out is a long way. 
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## tnt1234 (Feb 2, 2017)

mriceyman said:


> Tropicaltidbits.com
> Go to forecast models.. global models go out to 300+ hours (which is fantasy land)
> Free models worth looking at are the gfs and cmc(gem)
> 
> ...




Thanks - wow - cool site.....


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 2, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Thanks - wow - cool site.....



Here are some other good ones:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?&lang=en

If you're going to use them, however, I'd caution that you learn how to interpret them.  Especially the "total snow" maps, which are a misnomer and dont really show "total snow" depending on the totality of the weather.  I often see people post a map that shows 13" of snow and they're giddy, when in reality it's really 4" inches of snow, and a bunch of sleet, hail, rain, freezing rain, and god knows what.


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 2, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Here are some other good ones:
> 
> http://www.pivotalweather.com/
> 
> ...



Thanks.

Sadly, if I am reading this right, the latest run is not any better - might even be a little worse?


----------



## mriceyman (Feb 2, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Thanks.
> 
> Sadly, if I am reading this right, the latest run is not any better - might even be a little worse?



Cant be obsessed with every run 6 days out.. i know its not easy but especially with this storm many things can change the outcome. If the high in canada can push the storm further south than the mountains will be in good shape.. if this thing does cut expect snow to rain to snow


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## Rowsdower (Feb 2, 2017)

Chance for redemption Saturday?


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 2, 2017)

I think I'm going to try to convince my buddy to go this weekend instead.  Don't think it can happen, but I'm gonna try.  Can't take the stress, and conditions look plenty good right now.

(Mountain forecast has 10-1/2" for Mansfield on Tues, but Wednes not in the forecast yet....but you can see the freeze line spiking....)


----------



## Jully (Feb 2, 2017)

mriceyman said:


> Cant be obsessed with every run 6 days out.. i know its not easy but especially with this storm many things can change the outcome. If the high in canada can push the storm further south than the mountains will be in good shape.. if this thing does cut expect snow to rain to snow
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



+1


----------



## Jully (Feb 2, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Here are some other good ones:
> 
> http://www.pivotalweather.com/
> 
> ...



+85,000. I love it when that happens.


----------



## snoseek (Feb 2, 2017)

I'm saying another layer of glop at the cat with a couple inches of skiable snow on top to make it workable. This has been the trend so far this year when they call for rain and its been filling things in with dense snow that comes preconsolidated. Or it could just snow...that would be cool. Too early to sweat it


----------



## deadheadskier (Feb 2, 2017)

snoseek said:


> I'm saying another layer of glop at the cat with a couple inches of skiable snow on top to make it workable. This has been the trend so far this year when they call for rain and its been filling things in with dense snow that comes preconsolidated. Or it could just snow...that would be cool. Too early to sweat it


Straight up snow would be great. 12" on the base they have now would be amazing.  Outside of the windblown big Xmas week storm and 16" on zero base in November that they lost 90% of it's basically been nickle and dime builds. I've got a couple in the 7-9" range, but a real big blower or two before the end of the year would be sweet. 

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## JDMRoma (Feb 2, 2017)

deadheadskier said:


> Straight up snow would be great. 12" on the base they have now would be amazing.  Outside of the windblown bif Xmas week storm and 16" on zero base in November that they list 90% of it's basically been nickle and dime builds. I've got a couple in the 7-9" range, but a real big blower or two before the end of the year would be sweet.
> 
> Sent from my XT1565 using AlpineZone mobile app


Before Summit would be sweet !



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## Rowsdower (Feb 3, 2017)

This one is getting further away. Wednesday looks like a total washout everywhere except maybe Maine.


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## JDMRoma (Feb 3, 2017)

doesnt look bad to me


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## Rowsdower (Feb 3, 2017)

JDMRoma said:


> View attachment 21710doesnt look bad to me
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



I was just looking at the updated model runs. Looked like more rain than was showing last night. Hopefully that changes tonight.


----------



## Jully (Feb 3, 2017)

As usual the Cat will survive!


----------



## snoseek (Feb 3, 2017)

Jully said:


> As usual the Cat will survive!




I'm sticking with what I said before.

It would be nice for a couple feet of blower...sure. But the next best thing would be 7 inches of dense snow and a net gain.

This is still too far out to really know...If shit goes all snow or all rain that's great but outside of 48 hours is a trend and that's all


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 3, 2017)

The Canadian model wouldnt be too bad.  Wednesday would be the worst day, but it's really not a trainwreck.  The GFS would be pretty bad for the Catskills though, and poor for most places, but at least the base is deep enough all over that it will hold up.

EDIT:  Oh, and Pocono resorts of course would get roughly 30 hours of rain via GFS or 19 hours via Canuck.  The Poconos are like the Job of the ski world.  God bless them.


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 3, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> The Canadian model wouldnt be too bad.  Wednesday would be the worst day, but it's really not a trainwreck.  The GFS would be pretty bad for the Catskills though, and poor for most places, but at least the base is deep enough all over that it will hold up.
> 
> EDIT:  Oh, and Pocono resorts of course would get roughly 30 hours of rain via GFS or 19 hours via Canuck.  The Poconos are like the Job of the ski world.  God bless them.



I mean you can set your watch to the Poconos getting screwed. The years are rare when that doesn't happen anymore.


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 3, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> The Canadian model wouldnt be too bad.  Wednesday would be the worst day, but it's really not a trainwreck.  The GFS would be pretty bad for the Catskills though, and poor for most places, but at least the base is deep enough all over that it will hold up.
> 
> EDIT:  Oh, and Pocono resorts of course would get roughly 30 hours of rain via GFS or 19 hours via Canuck.  The Poconos are like the Job of the ski world.  God bless them.



Tim Kelley just updated - he's, as usual, optimistic. 

But jeez, temps plummet....hard to see how even a little rain isn't going to destroy the trees and natural terrain.


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 3, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> I mean you can set your watch to the Poconos getting screwed. The years are rare when that doesn't happen anymore.



The second best day I had all season was last year - that fluke storm....Feb?  I think?  ripped across PA - don't even think it snowed in the catskills.  My daughter and I struggled through tough driving conditions and had about a foot of fresh at Blue mountain, and the roads were so risky, place wasn't even crowded.  Next day was a snow day - two days after the storm.  I went to work, and saw the longest lines I've ever seen on the web cams.  Place was beyond crowded.  One friend of mine drove to blue with his kids, so the ticket line out the door into the parking lot, got back in the car and drive to Jack Frost....

Anyway, that's the only time the pokes didn't get screwed and actually beat everyone else.

They did pretty well two winters ago too, but everyone did that year.


----------



## Not Sure (Feb 3, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> The second best day I had all season was last year - that fluke storm....Feb?  I think?  ripped across PA - don't even think it snowed in the catskills.  My daughter and I struggled through tough driving conditions and had about a foot of fresh at Blue mountain, and the roads were so risky, place wasn't even crowded.  Next day was a snow day - two days after the storm.  I went to work, and saw the longest lines I've ever seen on the web cams.  Place was beyond crowded.  One friend of mine drove to blue with his kids, so the ticket line out the door into the parking lot, got back in the car and drive to Jack Frost....
> 
> Anyway, that's the only time the pokes didn't get screwed and actually beat everyone else.
> 
> They did pretty well two winters ago too, but everyone did that year.



That was a crazy storm , I bypassed Blue to go to a BC place of mine in Jim Thorpe only to find 12" with no base , killed my skis!
The cut off was crazy I don't think the "Actual" Poconos got more than 3" . I live 20 miles south of Blue and had 32" ,Blue claimed 2' but I doubt it was that much.


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 3, 2017)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> That was a crazy storm , I bypassed Blue to go to a BC place of mine in Jim Thorpe only to find 12" with no base , killed my skis!
> The cut off was crazy I don't think the "Actual" Poconos got more than 3" . I live 20 miles south of Blue and had 32" ,Blue claimed 2' but I doubt it was that much.



That storm was nuts. We had over 2 feet in Bucks Co. North of Blue Mountain the storm totals dropped off quick. Blue had maybe 18 inches on top of bare ground. Killed my board (and my knee) in the woods that day, but it was still fun.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 3, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> The second best day I had all season was last year - that fluke storm....Feb?  I think?  ripped across PA - don't even think it snowed in the catskills.  My daughter and I struggled through tough driving conditions and had about a foot of fresh at Blue mountain, and the roads were so risky, place wasn't even crowded.  Next day was a snow day - two days after the storm.  I went to work, and saw the longest lines I've ever seen on the web cams.  Place was beyond crowded.  One friend of mine drove to blue with his kids, so the ticket line out the door into the parking lot, got back in the car and drive to Jack Frost....



I was there that day too.  It was amazing.  It was closer to two feet of snow at Blue Mountain, and nobody was there.  

My town got 3 feet, but I diligently shoveled every few hours to ensure I could make it out and to the mountain.  I passed "ghost vehicles" on I78, people had just abandoned their vehicles and walked away, and their cars/trucks got snowed in by the plows.  It was weird seeing 18-wheelers basically surrounded by 4 feet of snow from the plows.  My best day ever of skiing in the Poconos in my life.   And yes, I saw the webcams the next day too, I cant imagine it was any fun, the lines must have been completely insane.


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## tnt1234 (Feb 3, 2017)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> That was a crazy storm , I bypassed Blue to go to a BC place of mine in Jim Thorpe only to find 12" with no base , killed my skis!
> The cut off was crazy I don't think the "Actual" Poconos got more than 3" . I live 20 miles south of Blue and had 32" ,Blue claimed 2' but I doubt it was that much.


yeah, that's right....my friends who left blue the next day to go to JF were like "yeah, not much snow...."


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## tnt1234 (Feb 3, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> I was there that day too.  It was amazing.  It was closer to two feet of snow at Blue Mountain, and nobody was there.
> 
> My town got 3 feet, but I diligently shoveled every few hours to ensure I could make it out and to the mountain.  I passed "ghost vehicles" on I78, people had just abandoned their vehicles and walked away, and their cars/trucks got snowed in by the plows.  It was weird seeing 18-wheelers basically surrounded by 4 feet of snow from the plows.  My best day ever of skiing in the Poconos in my life.   And yes, I saw the webcams the next day too, I cant imagine it was any fun, the lines must have been completely insane.




Was so psyched they didn't groom everything under...great day.

Yeah, couple of tractor trailer plowed in.  Was creepy.


----------



## bdfreetuna (Feb 3, 2017)

starting to look more like a ski sharpener!


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## Not Sure (Feb 3, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Was so psyched they didn't groom everything under...great day.
> 
> Yeah, couple of tractor trailer plowed in.  Was creepy.




Hindsight being 2020 I should have went to Blue....Did'nt even consider Bear Creek as I did'nt think it was steep enough for the amount of snow we got . I knew I would'nt be able to get my driveway cleared soon enough as I share a 400' driveway with three other people so I did the whole thing 2 times during the storm with a 5hp snowblower 7hrs later it was open and I was amazed the main road was cleared. 

Someone beat me to my BC spot and there was a single set of tracks pointing almost sraight down ? The guy must have had the worst skis in the world as the slope is fairly steep and he basically straight lined the whole thing ? After 10' I had to turn and hit rocks every other turn !!@#$%^


----------



## NYDB (Feb 4, 2017)

February 7th and 8th


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 4, 2017)

NY DirtBag said:


> February 7th and 8th
> 
> View attachment 21722



crap.


----------



## NYDB (Feb 4, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> crap.



to elaborate, I don't think that much base will be lost (if any), but after the rain, the hard refreeze thurs-fri will fuck up the natural which was having a good run.


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## tnt1234 (Feb 4, 2017)

NY DirtBag said:


> to elaborate, I don't think that much base will be lost (if any), but after the rain, the hard refreeze thurs-fri will fuck up the natural which was having a good run.



Seems likely we're cancelling next weekend.  Totally moving in the wrong direction here.....Oh well.

Looks killer up there right now...


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## tnt1234 (Feb 4, 2017)

You guys think there is any chance for a late save on this?


----------



## Glenn (Feb 4, 2017)

NWS is hedging a bit and talking about potential watches/warnings for areas north of Albany. So it's a bit of a difficult prediction at this point. Let's hope it trends colder. I'll take sleet over plain rain.


----------



## bdfreetuna (Feb 4, 2017)

NWS Burlington

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 249 PM EST Saturday...Biggest weather maker in the 7-day
forecast period then affects the forecast area from Tuesday into
Wednesday with widespread precipitation expected. Examination
of medium-range guidance supports a broadly consistent forecast
showing robust energy tracking from the central plains into the
lower Great Lakes, St. Lawrence/Ottawa Valleys and northeastward
during this time frame. Given this agreement our latest
forecast will continue to offer steady light to moderate snows
arriving from southwest to northeast during the day on Tuesday
as strong warm front lifts into the area. By later in the
afternoon and nighttime hours a very pronounced warm nose aloft
will surge northward through the entire forecast area with a
sharp transition to sleet/frza and eventually plain rain. Kept
close to prior forecast using a top-down methodology to govern
p-type timing/amounts. For an early estimate based off storm
track and model-averaged QPF we`re most likely looking at an
advisory- level event with this system with snow/ice amounts
noticeable but not excessive. Concerns also remain for a
potential strong backside sting jet to affect portions of
northern NY and far northwestern VT (esp. SLV) by Wednesday
afternoon/early evening as the primary surface low departs.
Factors favorable for development include a deepening sub-985 mb
sfc low swinging through the SLV and evidence of a strong
isallobaric pressure couplet boring southwest to northeast up
the valley. For now have offered wind gusts into the 40- 50 mph
range in favored locales as a first estimate, though as this
feature enters the domain of higher-res mesoscale output we`ll
be able to fine tune the details. As mentioned yesterday
temperatures will be all over the place with readings rising
throughout Tuesday into Tuesday night under strengthening
southerly flow. By Wednesday afternoon/evening the associated
strong cold front will sweep through beginning a period of
sharply falling readings as steadier precipitation transitions
back to light snows or snow showers.

Quieter weather then returns by Thursday into Friday as temperatures
settle back close to seasonable February norms. By next weekend
energy streaking east from the northern plains and Great Lakes
states may spread increasing clouds and a renewed threat of rain or
snow showers as temperatures moderate.


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 4, 2017)

balls.


----------



## ALLSKIING (Feb 4, 2017)

Wait and see at this point.

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----------



## mriceyman (Feb 5, 2017)

Gfs now has a southern storm for thursday going thru nj and semi up the coast. That trends north at all and ski country could have a 6" basebuilder followed by pow on top 


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## Gustavo Woltmann (Feb 5, 2017)

I've been waiting for this skiing trip all my life. Just some more snow please!!


----------



## NYDB (Feb 5, 2017)

basebuilder with the thaw and refreeze for so vt.  could be worse.  Looks like 80-90% precip falls frozen.  tues looks like good day if the snow starts early enough.  Wed will be soft.


----------



## ss20 (Feb 5, 2017)

NY DirtBag said:


> basebuilder with the thaw and refreeze for so vt.  could be worse.  Looks like 80-90% precip falls frozen.  tues looks like good day if the snow starts early enough.  Wed will be soft.



I'll get out there on Tuesday.  Wednesday will be wet in the morning, but there may be a few hours of dry before the snow turns boilerplate in the afternoon.


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 6, 2017)

Looking pretty doomed, no?

We're on the verge of canceling.  Was thinking about Tremblant, but even they show a thaw now.  Only way to make something decent work looks like Massif, and that's just to far.


----------



## Jully (Feb 6, 2017)

Tuesday is the day to get out! Now the decision is just where to go...


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 6, 2017)

Can a low change course by a couple of hundred miles over the course of 48 hrs?


----------



## snoseek (Feb 6, 2017)

Any actual rain looks to be brief for wildcat and much of Maine at this point.


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 6, 2017)

snoseek said:


> Any actual rain looks to be brief for wildcat and much of Maine at this point.



Yeah, but the thaw is gonna kill the natural trails and woods I'm afraid.  Was thinking of diverting to Sugarloaf, but it gets warm there too.


----------



## bheemsoth (Feb 6, 2017)

We're locked into a condo at Smuggs this weekend, so I've been watching. This mid week storm isn't ideal, but it seems to me things are trending better over the past two days. If the temp stays a few degrees cooler and limits NFP, the impact may not be so bad.


----------



## Bostonian (Feb 6, 2017)

Hopefully southern VT doesn't get impacted too badly, since I will be at snow on Saturday.  Kicking myself for not getting out over this weekend...


----------



## snoseek (Feb 6, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Yeah, but the thaw is gonna kill the natural trails and woods I'm afraid.  Was thinking of diverting to Sugarloaf, but it gets warm there too.




It went be pristine but any thaw is short and not really all that hot. I'm saying dense with maybe a crust....if its busted up not a problem. Also Saturday could add a few inches on top and make everything flat and scurfy. I'm trying to be optimistic here. ....


----------



## bdfreetuna (Feb 6, 2017)

Lower your expectations well in advance and be prepared for a pleasant surprise of skiable terrain.


----------



## ALLSKIING (Feb 6, 2017)

bdfreetuna said:


> Lower your expectations well in advance and be prepared for a pleasant surprise of skiable terrain.


This....Happens all the time!


----------



## WJenness (Feb 6, 2017)

Yes, please: http://www.weatherboy.com/thursday-snow-threat/


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 6, 2017)

WJenness said:


> Yes, please: http://www.weatherboy.com/thursday-snow-threat/



Looks like a coastal storm.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 6, 2017)

WJenness said:


> Yes, please: http://www.weatherboy.com/thursday-snow-threat/



Oh my dearest god, unfollow Weatherboy ASAP.   Worst "fake news" weather site on the internet, and 2nd place isn't close.  

When he says "we" and "our staff", he means "him" (it's one guy), and he posts the worst most overdone apocalyptic snow maps he can find to generate clicks and shares, not to mention almost all of his 250,000+ "likes" are fake likes purchased out of Turkey.  Other fun facts are he doesnt have a degree in meteorology and has sued (really) real meterologists who have attacked his credibility on Facebook.  He's the guy who posted a massive snowstorm map a few years back that went viral, to the point that real mets had to debunk it on air and online etc...


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 6, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Oh my dearest god, unfollow Weatherboy ASAP.   Worst "fake news" weather site on the internet, and 2nd place isn't close.
> 
> When he says "we" and "our staff", he means "him" (it's one guy), and he posts the worst most overdone apocalyptic snow maps he can find to generate clicks and shares, not to mention almost all of his 250,000+ "likes" are fake likes purchased out of Turkey.  Other fun facts are he doesnt have a degree in meteorology and has sued (really) real meterologists who have attacked his credibility on Facebook.  He's the guy who posted a massive snowstorm map a few years back that went viral, to the point that real mets had to debunk it on air and online etc...




Yeah, but if he tells me this weekend will be good, I will like him.....


----------



## Smellytele (Feb 6, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Yeah, but if he tells me this weekend will be good, I will like him.....



even if it is not?


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 6, 2017)

Smellytele said:


> even if it is not?



Probably.  Until Friday morning.  Then I will curse his name!


----------



## WoodCore (Feb 6, 2017)

Latest NAM model run......


----------



## ss20 (Feb 6, 2017)

WoodCore said:


> Latest NAM model run......



GFS and logic say "nay" but it's early.  I bailed on tomorrow.  Looks like less white and more frozen.  I put my eggs in Thursday's storm.


----------



## NYDB (Feb 7, 2017)

Weekend is pointing to a solid recovery.  Some dust on crust sat and then Sun-Mon looks interesting


----------



## WJenness (Feb 7, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Oh my dearest god, unfollow Weatherboy ASAP.



Thanks for the heads up.

Done.

Hadn't seen anything by this 'boy' before, this got re-shared by a friend...

Sorry.

-w


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2017)

WJenness said:


> Thanks for the heads up.
> 
> Done.
> 
> ...



No need to apologize, just giving a heads up.  For every snowstorm he'll post the map with the solution that shows the most snow to get clicks.  Does the same with hurricanes, etc...  Focuses on population centers (NYC, DC, Boston).  It's really irresponsible stuff.


----------



## Tin (Feb 7, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Probably.  Until Friday morning.  Then I will curse his name!




Quit spamming AmericanWx! 


Start learning

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2016040402&fh=0&r=us_ne&dpdt=


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 7, 2017)

So the flatlands get the snow and ski country gets boned. All while I scheduled my time off to go to Vermont?

Seems about right.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2017)

Bigtime signals for a possible storm ahead of PDW.  Not saying it's going to happen of course as that's very far away, but everything is favorable.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> So the* flatlands get the snow and ski country gets boned.* All while I scheduled my time off to go to Vermont?



Poconos could get 10 to 12 inches out of this is everything goes right (which of course it wont!).


----------



## Edd (Feb 7, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> So the flatlands get the snow and ski country gets boned. All while I scheduled my time off to go to Vermont?
> 
> Seems about right.



BGs map above shows VT getting some snow, and they've been doing well recently. I doubt the ski areas are feeling boned right about now.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2017)

Edd said:


> BGs map above shows VT getting some snow, and they've been doing well recently. I doubt the ski areas are feeling boned right about now.



Conditions are absolutely fantastic.   Have to see how they hold up from the rain & mixed 11pm Tuesday to about 10am Wednesday, but hopefully it wont be too bad because the air aloft for ADK and n.VT (areas I care about) is modeled only marginally too warm for much of that "bad" timeframe, so I'm not ready to say it's just going to be a terrible soaker yet.  With any luck maybe it will be snow, sleet, rain combo with less rain than thought.


----------



## Glenn (Feb 7, 2017)

Just checked my webcams up North. I'd say about 4" of snow. Looks like it's still snowing as well. Hopefully, it'll stay frozen and the rain will hold off.


----------



## mriceyman (Feb 7, 2017)

Latest euro


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----------



## mriceyman (Feb 7, 2017)

Looks like the rain should have minimal impact if this map plays out.. hardened base followed by a foot of snow in svt


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----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 7, 2017)

Tin said:


> Quit spamming AmericanWx!
> 
> 
> Start learning
> ...




I look at that map and I see a bunch of golf clubs laying around pointing in different directions...


----------



## Tin (Feb 7, 2017)

Then take 10 minutes and play around, here is a hint...winter weather section or precipitation.


----------



## ss20 (Feb 7, 2017)

When the local hills get a snowstorm it's a beautiful thing...


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 7, 2017)

Big money, no whammies.


----------



## WJenness (Feb 7, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> No need to apologize, just giving a heads up.  For every snowstorm he'll post the map with the solution that shows the most snow to get clicks.  Does the same with hurricanes, etc...  Focuses on population centers (NYC, DC, Boston).  It's really irresponsible stuff.



Based on forecasts now coming out... Looks like this one might be the proverbial nut for this blind squirrel... <shrug>


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2017)

He wont be wrong when there IS a decent snowfall.  He'll be wrong when there ISNT a decent snowfall.

Snowfall --> hysteria --> web hits --> money.


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 7, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> He wont be wrong when there IS a decent snowfall.  He'll be wrong when there ISNT a decent snowfall.
> 
> Snowfall --> hysteria --> web hits --> money.



That's just the alternative weather!


----------



## ss20 (Feb 7, 2017)

Things looking VERY good for the Northeast!  Southern storm Thursday, northern storm Monday, with a small refresher system in between.


----------



## Not Sure (Feb 7, 2017)

Poconos FTW ...get it before it melts


----------



## JimG. (Feb 7, 2017)

Pretty funny!

So there might be a reason for me to visit Big Boulder/Jack Frost since it is part of my Peaks pass.

Any pitch at those places?


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 7, 2017)

JimG. said:


> Pretty funny!
> 
> So there might be a reason for me to visit Big Boulder/Jack Frost since it is part of my Peaks pass.
> 
> Any pitch at those places?



Ha - certainly not at boulder.  It's been turned into one 400 vert foot terrain park basically. 

Jack Frost has a few nice pitches, but at 600' it's like two pitches per run....back on the lift....

Having said that, I skied JF with my kids for a number of years and enjoy the place for what it is.  If there is a lot of snow on the ground, they encourage glade skiing, and there actually are a couple of nice - short, but nice - glades, and little cliffs, and what not to entertain yourself with.  Keep in mind, the Pokes are only 1-1/2 - 2 hours from me, so, you know...there's that...

You'll find them all in about two hours, but if you go, send me a PM, I'll make sure you don't miss anything.

Also - find the the elevator.  Steepest thing in the poconos for about 100'.  Not sure if they 'opened' it this year or not.


----------



## JimG. (Feb 7, 2017)

Yeah I just looked at the trail map. Layout reminds me of Mountain Creek.

I learned from McCauley Mountain last week that even at 675' vert or less if the snow is powdery then I'm a happy camper.


----------



## Cornhead (Feb 8, 2017)

JimG. said:


> Yeah I just looked at the trail map. Layout reminds me of Mountain Creek.
> 
> I learned from McCauley Mountain last week that even at 675' vert or less if the snow is powdery then I'm a happy camper.


Ha, don't expect that Utahesque LES powder in the Poconos, especially out of this storm.

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## Rowsdower (Feb 8, 2017)

Whatever snow Jack Frost is getting will be on top of bare ground, so watch out if you do go into the woods.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 8, 2017)

12z GFS just printed 10" of snow on the Poconos. 

  If that happens, is it worth going tomorrow night, or will there be 374 minute lines at Blue Mountain, Camelback, etc?


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 8, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> 12z GFS just printed 10" of snow on the Poconos.
> 
> If that happens, is it worth going tomorrow night, or will there be 374 minute lines at Blue Mountain, Camelback, etc?



What is the timing of the storm?

If roads are brutal tomorrow, I'd bet you won't have huge lines.  Friday will be insanely packed though - like, 'close the doors, there's no more room on the slopes!' especially if they close schools.

But last year after that freak storm, my daughter and I had lines, but nothing more than normal till about noon.  But the roads were really tough - lots of spin outs and un-passable on and off ramps kind of mess.


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 8, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> 12z GFS just printed 10" of snow on the Poconos.
> 
> If that happens, is it worth going tomorrow night, or will there be 374 minute lines at Blue Mountain, Camelback, etc?



I'm not a fan of night skiing in general, but crowds probably will be light, especially if the roads aren't totally clear. Plus its a weekday.

Crowds at Blue and Camelback are the weekend warrior types. Weekdays and adverse weather conditions keep them away. But once the roads are cleared and the weekend rolls around forget about it. It's a zoo.


----------



## JimG. (Feb 8, 2017)

Cornhead said:


> Ha, don't expect that Utahesque LES powder in the Poconos, especially out of this storm.
> 
> Sent from my R1 HD using AlpineZone mobile app



You noticed I emphasized powdery.

Not expecting anything other than cement. Probably what they need right now. More of an excuse to go there and see what the place is like since it is on my Peaks pass.


----------



## mriceyman (Feb 8, 2017)

How much Did it rain in NVT? Trying to figure out my weekend plans and want to go where best coniditons are 


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----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 8, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> What is the timing of the storm?



It will be over pretty early in the day, I'll go with 4:15pm.



Rowsdower said:


> I'm not a fan of night skiing in general, but crowds probably will be light, especially if the roads aren't totally clear. Plus its a weekday.



Roads should be clear by then I think if they're out during the day?   Then again, PA is horrendous with their roads compared to Jersey.   FWIW, I noticed the 10" I posted earlier are more like 14" or 15" if you go by Kuchera.


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 8, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> It will be over pretty early in the day, I'll go with 4:15pm.
> 
> 
> 
> Roads should be clear by then I think if they're out during the day?   Then again, PA is horrendous with their roads compared to Jersey.   FWIW, I noticed the 10" I posted earlier are more like 14" or 15" if you go by Kuchera.



I think Thurs night you would be in the clear. Weeknight + bad weather should keep most of the crowds away. I'd be less keen on Friday unless you're going during the morning.


----------



## Kleetus (Feb 8, 2017)

mriceyman said:


> How much Did it rain in NVT? Trying to figure out my weekend plans and want to go where best coniditons are
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Curious about the same


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 8, 2017)

Kleetus said:


> Curious about the same



Ditto.

Reports this morning were ok, but temps are dropping to brutal over night.  Worried about the deep freeze.

We're leaving tomorrow for three days.  Might stop in MA or S. VT if they really get the storm, and avoid 2F and windy at Jay on Friday....


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 8, 2017)

Stowe said they got almost all snow/sleet with very little freezing rain mixing at lower elevations. Killington says 5.5 inches with minimal liquid precip mixing in too, but their webcams showed a pretty obvious glaze today. 

Doesn't look too terrible though, probably a net gain in terms of base building.


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 8, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> Stowe said they got almost all snow/sleet with very little freezing rain mixing at lower elevations. Killington says 5.5 inches with minimal liquid precip mixing in too, but their webcams showed a pretty obvious glaze today.
> 
> Doesn't look too terrible though, probably a net gain in terms of base building.



MRG described the snow as 'cream cheese' mid down and a slight crust at the top....just wonder how much moisture is there to really crisp up over night.


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 8, 2017)

Uh oh.....jay's report - they just closed a bunch of trails for glazing....


----------



## Puck it (Feb 8, 2017)

So did Cannon.


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 8, 2017)

Not a good sign.  With two days of super cold weather and not much snow in the forecast up north, seems like the woods and natural trails are toast.


----------



## dlague (Feb 8, 2017)

Sounds like the main trails can be groomed out to create a good surface, bumps runs might get wacked too if they get to hard.  Glades, well, they might harden right up until more snow moves in.  Looks like it is going to get real cold.


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 8, 2017)

Bad news Sunday/Monday. Looks like a repeat of this storm system: big tongue of warm air and rain as the system tracks inland.


----------



## NYDB (Feb 8, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> Bad news Sunday/Monday. Looks like a repeat of this storm system: big tongue of warm air and rain as the system tracks inland.



yeah, as much as thurs turned good, sun/mon turned to shit rather quick.  Although the day sunday looks good.


----------



## SnowRock (Feb 8, 2017)

Camelback and Jack Frost would be fun with this snow, but BG was correct in his warning about the difference in road quality after you cross the gap... you will be very lucky to get through that stretch of 80 without an accident impeding your path. I moved back towards NYC but was out in Morris county for a few years and would often try to get up there when they got snow with a few results:
1) On the road early or late enough and despite terrible job of snow removal by PA cews, made it to the resort and had fun
2) On the road  with others and narrowly avoided bade PA drivers spinning out and crashing into median or guard rails
3) Accident forcing me to sit in bad traffic or give up


----------



## snoseek (Feb 8, 2017)

You guys are awfully pessimistic. I'll take one for the team and ski the next 5 in Northern NH....Somebody needs to bust the crust


----------



## Not Sure (Feb 8, 2017)

SnowRock said:


> Camelback and Jack Frost would be fun with this snow, but BG was correct in his warning about the difference in road quality after you cross the gap... you will be very lucky to get through that stretch of 80 without an accident impeding your path. I moved back towards NYC but was out in Morris county for a few years and would often try to get up there when they got snow with a few results:
> 1) On the road early or late enough and despite terrible job of snow removal by PA cews, made it to the resort and had fun
> 2) On the road  with others and narrowly avoided bade PA drivers spinning out and crashing into median or guard rails
> 3) Accident forcing me to sit in bad traffic or give up



Should be done snowing around Noon to 1 . Looks like Bear Creek is in the bullseye area. Staightline Thursday LOL


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 8, 2017)

Yeah, we cancelled n. vt, barring some kind of crazy change in forecasts overnight.

Maybe Plattekill Saturday....


----------



## 4aprice (Feb 8, 2017)

NY DirtBag said:


> yeah, as much as thurs turned good, sun/mon turned to shit rather quick.  Although the day sunday looks good.





Rowsdower said:


> Bad news Sunday/Monday. Looks like a repeat of this storm system: big tongue of warm air and rain as the system tracks inland.



Get us through the weekend, then worry about next week.  Bastardi said on the 6th that changes in the Pacific should result in a push of cold air and a big storm in 10 days or so.  That puts us at the 16th or just before next weekend.  (Presidents Day weekend which has had some historic storms).  This weekend could be fun with warming temps and good snow till it rains. 

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## dlague (Feb 8, 2017)

Once again, it looks like the Northern part of VT. NH and ME will be spared and will get snow on Sunday?


----------



## kcharris22 (Feb 8, 2017)

There's always next year...


----------



## snoseek (Feb 8, 2017)

kcharris22 said:


> There's always next year...




Seriously? Take a drive and the skiing is likely about to get real good. 

You guys sound like you want to jump off a cliff. The skiing this year has had its challenges but overall its been decent and all these marginal storms have laid out a good base so far.


----------



## Not Sure (Feb 8, 2017)

snoseek said:


> Seriously? Take a drive and the skiing is likely about to get real good.
> 
> You guys sound like you want to jump off a cliff. The skiing this year has had its challenges but overall its been decent and all these marginal storms have laid out a good base so far.



1 + 
 Just pretend it's the beginning of the 3rd quarter in the Super Bowl !!!


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 8, 2017)

snoseek said:


> Seriously? Take a drive and the skiing is likely about to get real good.
> 
> You guys sound like you want to jump off a cliff. The skiing this year has had its challenges but overall its been decent and all these marginal storms have laid out a good base so far.




No doubt - it's been a good year.  Great family trip over X-mas, which is always risky, and a few really nice day trips.  I'm just slipping into depression because my annual guy trip to N. VT got bumped to the weekend when it snow>rain>thaw>freeze, when just about any other weekend of the last three would have been epic.  Hard to take.

But it is what it is....hard to live a skiers life in NJ.


----------



## JimG. (Feb 8, 2017)

snoseek said:


> The skiing this year has had its challenges but overall its been decent and all these marginal storms have laid out a good base so far.



Could not agree more. I'd say better than decent, I'll say pretty good.


----------



## JimG. (Feb 8, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> No doubt - it's been a good year.  Great family trip over X-mas, which is always risky, and a few really nice day trips.  I'm just slipping into depression because my annual guy trip to N. VT got bumped to the weekend when it snow>rain>thaw>freeze, when just about any other weekend of the last three would have been epic.  Hard to take.
> 
> But it is what it is....hard to live a skiers life in NJ.



I understand your pain. I am lucky; I can ski when I want to and can chase snow when it falls. But it was not always like that and I remember well sitting at work watching it snow. Or skiing in the rain because it was a day I could ski.

Like you now, I skied anyway because it's all good. Just that some days it is better than good.

This probably explains why I have no great urge to go out west. I ski plenty of good snow days right here in the east.


----------



## Los (Feb 8, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> No doubt - it's been a good year.  Great family trip over X-mas, which is always risky, and a few really nice day trips.  I'm just slipping into depression because my annual guy trip to N. VT got bumped to the weekend when it snow>rain>thaw>freeze, when just about any other weekend of the last three would have been epic.  Hard to take.
> 
> But it is what it is....hard to live a skiers life in NJ.



snosneek wrote "overall it's been decent" which I would definitely agree with. But I don't think that's the same as saying "it's been a good year."   good is a notch above decent. IMO.


----------



## snoseek (Feb 8, 2017)

Well if it did come in with more consistent cold and temps (that a big if I know), the base in Northern New England is pretty well set and I feel like the second half has a lot of potential.


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## tnt1234 (Feb 8, 2017)

Los said:


> snosneek wrote "overall it's been decent" which I would definitely agree with. But I don't think that's the same as saying "it's been a good year."   good is a notch above decent. IMO.



Skiing on black friday in the catskills, great powder day in december on a mountain more than half open at that time, near 100% open SB with solid conditions, including soft castle rock - hike to, and a killer day at MRG - all open but paradise I think.....my december was definitely good.  Jan. was fine, but just day trips to catskills and elk, so not expecting much....I don't know...I'd call it good for us.  But splitting hairs I suppose.


----------



## Los (Feb 8, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Skiing on black friday in the catskills, great powder day in december on a mountain more than half open at that time, near 100% open SB with solid conditions, including soft castle rock - hike to, and a killer day at MRG - all open but paradise I think.....my december was definitely good.  Jan. was fine, but just day trips to catskills and elk, so not expecting much....I don't know...I'd call it good for us.  But splitting hairs I suppose.



That's great... don't get me wrong, it's so much better this season than last (goes without saying probably), we're getting out there, we're having fun, and we've had some GREAT days. But just overall, I don't think it's a "good" season... just decent... but yeah, maybe that's splitting hairs.... whatever


----------



## bdfreetuna (Feb 8, 2017)

Depends where you ski. Great if you ski Jay... average or good if you ski areas that are mostly snowmaking...


----------



## deadheadskier (Feb 8, 2017)

JimG. said:


> Could not agree more. I'd say better than decent, I'll say pretty good.



I fully agree for the conditions we've had at Wildcat.  It has been pretty darn good most of the season.  Very good for the past four weeks and also some killer days in December.  Watch tomorrow will be an icy mess. Overall I'll take a winter like this one up there every year and be happy.  It has lacked big epic powder days, but it's basically been a consistent 10" of natural every week since December 1 with minimal thaws.  The mountain has been at 100% since just after MLK day.  This pattern stays the way it's been and 100% operation should remain into April. I'll take it. 

But, when I look at Crotched, where I also like to ski for easy access, I'd say it's been less than good.  Obviously better than last year, but the two years prior were both so much better.  It sounds like they might be turning the corner this week though. Hopefully we do still get a few weeks of great tree skiing there yet. 

All depends on where you ski.


----------



## moresnow (Feb 9, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> I'm just slipping into depression because my annual guy trip to N. VT got bumped to the weekend when it SNOW>RAIN>THAW>freeze, when just about any other weekend of the last three would have been epic.



Sounds like you had 3 nice days out of 4.

Nice!


----------



## Edd (Feb 9, 2017)

Sat-Tues look pretty good to me for Wildcat/SR areas. I must be looking at the wrong weather apps. This has been a good season for me. About half of my 22 days have had fresh snow.


----------



## mriceyman (Feb 9, 2017)

Svt should be prime this weekend.. storm hitting there now.. if they can squeeze 4-6" that would be great refresher 


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----------



## ss20 (Feb 9, 2017)

mriceyman said:


> Svt should be prime this weekend.. storm hitting there now.. if they can squeeze 4-6" that would be great refresher
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



With another few inches Friday night, big storm Monday, maybe a storm Thursday?  I'm going up to ski Thursday/Friday before the crowds get to it.


----------



## Glenn (Feb 9, 2017)

SoVT now has a Winter Storm Warning. Looking like 8-12" of snow being called for by NWS out of Albany.


----------



## Kleetus (Feb 9, 2017)

Glenn said:


> SoVT now has a Winter Storm Warning. Looking like 8-12" of snow being called for by NWS out of Albany.



Thinking of heading that way for Sunday and banging into work on Monday for some pow turns at Magic provided they get a big dump out of this storm on Sunday-Monday.


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 9, 2017)

moresnow said:


> Sounds like you had 3 nice days out of 4.
> 
> Nice!



Well, speaking in future tense - supposed to be heading up to stowe tonight, but reports are everything is frozen pretty solid.  Think we are gonna cancel.


----------



## bdfreetuna (Feb 9, 2017)

Whiteface somehow pulled off 6" last night. Reporting "Powder / Packed Powder" conditions. Not sure how long that could possibly hold up as I imagine an ice sheet just under that. Unfortunately their snow reports are not very detailed in ways that don't leave much to the imagination.


----------



## Quietman (Feb 9, 2017)

So, after a very nice storm today(not in the forecast 4 days ago) and something else on Saturday, Sunday/Mondays storm could rival today's and another possibility for Wed/Thurs.  3 weeks ago we were facing multiple warm r$^$ events, each one turned to frozen precip, and then a foot of powder today. Amazing how the tides have turned!!


----------



## snoseek (Feb 9, 2017)

I'm pretty excited about Monday if it stays the course. Maybe some mix south but north looking good


----------



## Tin (Feb 10, 2017)

Sunday/Monday = BOMB
Thursday is something to watch too, some showing clippers other showing another bomb.


----------



## Glenn (Feb 10, 2017)

The Albany NWS forecast discussion is a good read for Sunday/Monday...and the mid week storm. Potential!


----------



## dlague (Feb 10, 2017)

Well following the typical New England pattern warm January snowy February - all good now.

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----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2017)

PDW looks to be awesome.  All sorts of opportunities for snow in the next few weeks.


----------



## Kleetus (Feb 10, 2017)

Josh Fox from Single Chair Wx posted it's game on for Sunday-Monday. Models look to be honing in on agreement on the track. 

Hope this isn't a bust as I had to put in to get Monday off now and just did.


----------



## 4aprice (Feb 10, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> PDW looks to be awesome.  All sorts of opportunities for snow in the next few weeks.



JB was saying this last week, that while people were watching this last storm(Niko per TWC), he was watching the change in the SOI in the pacific, and he thought this should lead to something interesting this next week.



dlague said:


> Well following the typical New England pattern warm January snowy February - all good now.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930P using AlpineZone mobile app



I said this back on Dec 19th in another thread (I'm no meterologist)

I expect it will be a warm (not necessarily blowtorch) for the holidays, little natural, but good snowmaking nights. Cold will be advertised for early January by the models 7 days out but won't actually show up till late January, so terrain expansion will be slow and people will have to stay away from the ledge. Then snow and probably some more numbing cold before finally settling in for a rather pleasant final 6 to 8 weeks of the season. In other words a typical northeast season.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 10, 2017)

Feeling better about our decision to bail on this weekend mostly because we would have had to leave Sunday and it sure looks like Monday is gonna rock....would be sick about drying away from all that fresh snow.


----------



## Kleetus (Feb 10, 2017)

4aprice said:


> JB was saying this last week, that while people were watching this last storm(Niko per TWC), he was watching the change in the SOI in the pacific, and he thought this should lead to something interesting this next week.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I saw your prediction back in Dec and thought it was spot on. So far tracking pretty well with what's actually happened.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2017)

Kleetus said:


> *Josh Fox from Single Chair Wx posted it's game on for Sunday-Monday.* Models look to be honing in on agreement on the track.



Sunday-Monday?   Pfffftttttt.... That will be peanuts compared to what's printing on the European model for Wednesday.  Fingers crossed.


----------



## Kleetus (Feb 10, 2017)

Saw that too. Couldn't get Wednesday off and this looked like more of a sure thing so pulled the trigger for Monday. 

If Wednesday happens that's the real show.


----------



## bdfreetuna (Feb 10, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Feeling better about our decision to bail on this weekend mostly because we would have had to leave Sunday and it sure looks like Monday is gonna rock....would be sick about drying away from all that fresh snow.



Ha I'm going to be in Lake Placid skiing Whiteface Sunday, probably fast n' firm at best, driving back Sunday afternoon/night to Massachusetts in this snow. Makes ya jealous don't it?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2017)

Although I retired from posting pictures to this subforum due to some people's abject douchebaggery, this is such ridonkulous potential snowporn that I couldnt help but come out of retirement for this.

Avert your children's eyes.


----------



## snoseek (Feb 10, 2017)

^^^^Fuck yes please cancel classes that day!


----------



## Not Sure (Feb 10, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Although I retired from posting pictures to this subforum due to some people's abject douchebaggery, this is such ridonkulous potential snowporn that I couldnt help but come out of retirement for this.
> 
> Avert your children's eyes.





Speak engrish prease ..enough with millibars .....Accummirations !!!!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2017)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> View attachment 21803
> 
> Speak engrish prease ..enough with millibars .....*Accummirations !!!!*



Not worth even thinking about that this far out.   

The important thing is, it's still there as of last night on the Euro(below).

The 2nd important thing is, the Canadian has picked up on it as well, although it's farther off the shore = less snow on the canuck.

Our model suppresses the low off the coast of South Carolina (yeah, not even close).






Everyone's excited about Sunday/Monday (as they should be), I'm excited about the above.  Fingers crossed.


----------



## VTKilarney (Feb 11, 2017)

Prediction for Sunday to Monday from the Fairbanks Museum.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2017)

I just ran the UKIE too for poops and giggles, and it has the Thursday storm now too!!!!!!  I getting excited!


----------



## snoseek (Feb 11, 2017)

What a time to be an east coast skier. I'm taking today off to get my anatomy on point then heading up to get this storm!


----------



## Kleetus (Feb 11, 2017)

snoseek said:


> What a time to be an east coast skier. I'm taking today off to get my anatomy on point then heading up to get this storm!



Same here


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----------



## NYDB (Feb 11, 2017)

Looks like Maine is going to get hammered.  Hope those at sugarloaf can stay through mon at least


----------



## Edd (Feb 11, 2017)

Looks like some winds on Monday. I wonder if SR is a safer bet for holds. Trying to decide between the two for Monday.


----------



## Glenn (Feb 11, 2017)

Upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for SoVT. No surprised. But still happy.


----------



## Not Sure (Feb 11, 2017)

benedictgomez said:


> i getting excited!



lol


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 11, 2017)

Well... now that I'm up here do you think I'll even be able to leave by Monday afternoon?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2017)

Sadly after what looks like a phenomenal PDW, all models are showing a pretty dramatic ~4 day warmup with heavy rain.  Hopefully that doesnt happen.


----------



## Glenn (Feb 13, 2017)

Yeah, not liking the potential precip for next week. Slightly warm temps can be dealt with. But no rain please.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2017)

It's worse than that, I think I'm going to be sick.  Just when conditions couldnt be much better, the models are signaling a massive warmup. 

One potential saving grace caveat is that the long-range climate models have been worse than a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at the triple-twenty this year, so hopefully that trend continues.


----------



## VTKilarney (Feb 13, 2017)

It's been a good year, but not without some frustration.  It seems that just when conditions get to be very good, we take a step backwards.  Rinse and repeat.  But at least we keep bouncing back.


----------



## MommaBear (Feb 13, 2017)

VTKilarney said:


> ...  But at least we keep bouncing back.



Only thing keeping me sane.  Work (and renters in my unit) has me missing out on a lot of the good stuff.


----------



## mriceyman (Feb 13, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> It's worse than that, I think I'm going to be sick.  Just when conditions couldnt be much better, the models are signaling a massive warmup.
> 
> One potential saving grace caveat is that the long-range climate models have been worse than a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at the triple-twenty this year, so hopefully that trend continues.



Yep basically after day 3 anything could happen and any solution can change.. really poor long range verification for the models this year 


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----------



## ALLSKIING (Feb 13, 2017)

I wouldn't trust anything more then 3 days out at this point. Long range is a complete waste of time.

Sent from my LG-H901 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## deadheadskier (Feb 13, 2017)

ALLSKIING said:


> I wouldn't trust anything more then 3 days out at this point. Long range is a complete waste of time.
> 
> Sent from my LG-H901 using AlpineZone mobile app



Agreed.  It was last year too, but in the opposite direction.  Snow storms predicted 7 days out turned into wash out events. Both years the models have been wrong more often than right with significant frequency


----------



## snoseek (Feb 13, 2017)

Get out there ASAP just to be safe. Its rare right now all over


----------



## Not Sure (Feb 13, 2017)

Putting things in perspective ......+++++ thoughts !
Off year for me for family reasons but looks awsome just looking at snowfall alone, glad to see everyone else having a great year!


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 13, 2017)

Maybe we just have a jaded perspective. We've got snow on the ground, but we've been knocked down with rain events more than once too. It's not like last year where there was nothing at all to ski on, but its not like you can knock everything out of the park either.


----------



## Not Sure (Feb 13, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> Maybe we just have a jaded perspective. We've got snow on the ground, but we've been knocked down with rain events more than once too. It's not like last year where there was nothing at all to ski on, but its not like you can knock everything out of the park either.



Setting up for a great spring , JB says end of the month and March is going to be cold . Poconos ....?  Hopefully my schedule can clear but it would take a miracle


----------



## Glenn (Feb 14, 2017)

March can really deliver. I remember a number of years ago my wife and I had a long weekend in March and had some incredible mid winter conditions.


----------



## drjeff (Feb 14, 2017)

Just need more than anything to hope for a return of an active weather pattern (especially after this Wednesday's storm) to keep the chances of storms going.

As the sun gets stronger, even in cold weather it will cause some sublimation and loss of the pack.  I'd rather see an active weather pattern, even if it involves an occasional mixed and/or some plain old liquid, than a cold, dry pattern to really help augment what has been a GOOD last few weeks of base building 

And if the forecast for this weekend holds true,  my hunch is that they'll be numerous areas, both large and small, reporting record crowds with all the recent fresh snow, and what as of now is looking to be sunny weather and comfortable temps for Pres weekend   

Might be first chair.... and then be done and actually have to wait for first barstool because of the on hill crowds!!


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 14, 2017)

Yeah - boy, it's gonna be JAMMED this weekend everywhere in the NE.


----------



## bdfreetuna (Feb 14, 2017)

Good weekend to take advantage of the snow and enjoy good skiing at less crowded independent areas.


----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 14, 2017)

bdfreetuna said:


> Good weekend to take advantage of the snow and enjoy good skiing at less crowded independent areas.



Yeah....trying to figure out how I can get my kids to Platty.  Not sure it's gonna work out though.


----------



## Jully (Feb 14, 2017)

bdfreetuna said:


> Good weekend to take advantage of the snow and enjoy good skiing at less crowded independent areas.



Might be a day to try out Whaleback on a 2 for 1 with a ride and ski card. 

Was really hoping there would be one day this weekend that was bitter bitter cold like MLK weekend a few years ago ('14-'15 I think).


----------



## VTKilarney (Feb 16, 2017)

I've been in the Saratoga Springs region for the past couple of days.  It's pretty shocking how much less snow there is on the ground once you get west of Rutland.


----------



## JimG. (Feb 16, 2017)

VTKilarney said:


> I've been in the Saratoga Springs region for the past couple of days.  It's pretty shocking how much less snow there is on the ground once you get west of Rutland.



Until you get to ADKs


----------



## j law (Feb 16, 2017)

bdfreetuna said:


> Good weekend to take advantage of the snow and enjoy good skiing at less crowded independent areas.



Can't wait to hit Magic tomorrow



Sent from my iPhone usin


----------



## dlague (Feb 16, 2017)

It looks like it will be warming up over this holiday weekend back east.  Spring skiing?  The nice fluffy stuff will get sticky?


----------



## 4aprice (Feb 16, 2017)

dlague said:


> It looks like it will be warming up over this holiday weekend back east.  Spring skiing?  The nice fluffy stuff will get sticky?



Looks like the hose may get turned on again for the west.  1 month from tomorrow till I'm back out there.  

I will enjoy the warm temps, but really hope its not too long term.  Rumor has it March has potential.  Anyways I plan to up my weekly ski days here locally at CBK and MC over the next 2 weeks, before hitting the road again.  Got to get the legs in the best shape possible for the 8 day safari in March.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## dlague (Feb 17, 2017)

4aprice said:


> Looks like the hose may get turned on again for the west.  1 month from tomorrow till I'm back out there.
> 
> I will enjoy the warm temps, but really hope its not too long term.  Rumor has it March has potential.  Anyways I plan to up my weekly ski days here locally at CBK and MC over the next 2 weeks, before hitting the road again.  Got to get the legs in the best shape possible for the 8 day safari in March.
> 
> ...


PM me when you come out!  It has been phenominal this year.

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## Glenn (Feb 17, 2017)

I've head we'll be in an active pattern starting in March. Let's hope we have the cooler temps to keep us on the snowy side of things. Hoping it doesn't warm up much next week.


----------



## 4aprice (Feb 17, 2017)

dlague said:


> PM me when you come out!  It has been phenominal this year.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930P using AlpineZone mobile app



Will do as the time gets closer.  Unfortunately we are on different passes but maybe some apres drinks in Dillon.  (Dam Brewery was a pretty neat place last year).  One month today

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## dlague (Feb 18, 2017)

4aprice said:


> Will do as the time gets closer.  Unfortunately we are on different passes but maybe some apres drinks in Dillon.  (Dam Brewery was a pretty neat place last year).  One month today
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ


We can figure it out!

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----------



## NYDB (Feb 19, 2017)

Fucking terrible fri night - sat

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----------



## tnt1234 (Feb 19, 2017)

Looks terrible for the next two weeks.  Ugh.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 19, 2017)

Maybe.  The seasonal trend of storms coming south within 5 days might start working with the weekend storm.  SNE on south is probably in trouble but the mountains of NNE could start cashing in again soon.


----------



## bigbog (Feb 20, 2017)

Hope the temps remained acceptable in the mountains....was in 40s(may have hit 50) in Bangor on Sunday.  The same old temp swing following a week of snow..horrible.


----------



## andrec10 (Feb 20, 2017)

Still better than last winter.....


----------



## 180 (Feb 20, 2017)

andrec10 said:


> Still better than last winter.....



true dat!


----------



## ALLSKIING (Feb 20, 2017)

Way better and it's not over!

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----------



## Glenn (Feb 20, 2017)

Local weather guy (Who is also a big snowmobiler) was hinting on cooler temps and more storms rolling in as we get into March. Hoping he's right!


----------



## JimG. (Feb 20, 2017)

I don't post in this thread often but will remind you all that this type of winter with big temp swings and a lot of snow was forecasted before winter even began. 

My point is that anyone who watches the forecasting should be relatively pleased that it is all working out as predicted.

I've had a bunch of ridiculous ski days in the past 4 weeks starting with my visit to Wildcat at the end of January and am nothing but pleased at this point in the season.

A week of spring warmth? Welcome to the East Coast. Be happy it's 50's and 60's and not 80's like a few years ago.


----------



## Not Sure (Feb 20, 2017)

70 Yesterday but kind of unusual in the sense that these warm ups in the past are associated with high humidity . Was a nice low humidity level the last few days   ....It's going to be bad for the Poconos but at least the country as a whole is doing ok .

Edit ....I don't know what it is but the picture post has a mind of it's own ...was straight before.


----------



## bestweather (Feb 21, 2017)

More snow favored after the thaw.  Check out Best Weather Inc.'s ski forecast http://www.bestweatherinc.com/weather/best-skiing-march-april-snow/


----------



## mriceyman (Feb 21, 2017)

Plenty of snow chances into march


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## slatham (Feb 23, 2017)

Winter is coming back. Strong indications from teleconnections, MJO, strat warming, and modeling for at least the first half of March being cold. How that translates into snowfall is another question but we should have a couple weeks + of winter starting Sunday. 

And I will go on record as saying a week of spring in February means a big dump in April!


----------



## Glenn (Feb 23, 2017)

slatham said:


> And I will go on record as saying a week of spring in February means a big dump in April!



I was actually thinking the same thing. It's really early for this warms. Nature has a way of averaging things out.


----------



## NYDB (Feb 26, 2017)

slatham said:


> Winter is coming back. Strong indications from teleconnections, MJO, strat warming, and modeling for at least the first half of March being cold. How that translates into snowfall is another question but we should have a couple weeks + of winter starting Sunday.
> 
> And I will go on record as saying a week of spring in February means a big dump in April!


After the inch of rain tue-wed it looks good

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----------



## dlague (Feb 26, 2017)

NY DirtBag said:


> After the inch of rain tue-wed it looks good
> 
> Sent from my SM-G900V using AlpineZone mobile app


More rain?

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----------



## Los (Feb 26, 2017)

Josh Fox of the single chair weather blog posted a tweet this morning (is that what you do? "post" a tweet?) -- march forecast just took a turn for the worst. That's reflected on accuweather's March outlook as well. Awesome.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 26, 2017)

He didn't say that.  Maybe I missed something.  Going to rain Tuesday-Wednesday night.  Back edge snow could happen.  That is what he said.  I don't like the look of the cutter early next week but hopefully it trends back cooler.


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----------



## Los (Feb 26, 2017)

catsup948 said:


> He didn't say that.  Maybe I missed something.  Going to rain Tuesday-Wednesday night.  Back edge snow could happen.  That is what he said.  I don't like the look of the cutter early next week but hopefully it trends back cooler.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Ok, yeah, I see now that I misread it. Sorry. 

But I'm still bracing myself for a warm March. 


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----------



## benski (Feb 26, 2017)

End of month storm system has again moved to a warmer overall scenario with snow on back end, full details coming-Josh Fox

He said in his last post we are entering a stormy pattern next week Thursday.

Edit. Don't try to embed a tweet.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 26, 2017)

March 2-12th seems a good period to target for a return to winter up north.  The transitional patterns have brought great orographic snowfalls across the NNE all winter. Let's see what happens.


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----------



## Los (Feb 27, 2017)

Los said:


> Ok, yeah, I see now that I misread it. Sorry.
> 
> But I'm still bracing myself for a warm March.
> 
> ...



Surprise, surprise...


----------



## thebigo (Feb 27, 2017)

CPC disagrees


----------



## dlague (Feb 27, 2017)

Forecasts indicate slightly cooler than average March, average temps in April and cooler May whcih may help Killington goers!


----------



## Los (Feb 27, 2017)

Hm... Thanks. 

I'm still prepared for a warm March. If it turns out better than expected, then I'll experience the joy of being pleasantly surprised.


----------



## andrec10 (Feb 27, 2017)

Los said:


> Hm... Thanks.
> 
> I'm still prepared for a warm March. If it turns out better than expected, then I'll experience the joy of being pleasantly surprised.



Set the bar real low, that always helps!


----------



## Los (Feb 27, 2017)

andrec10 said:


> Set the bar real low, that always helps!



Exactly!


----------



## prsboogie (Feb 27, 2017)

The real question is what's this weekend going to be like in SoVT?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 27, 2017)

prsboogie said:


> The real question is what's this weekend going to be like in SoVT?



Less than stellar.

I'll be in n.VT this weekend, and I expect that to stink too, but it will stink less than s.VT.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 28, 2017)

NNE slowly recovers after this upcoming rain.  Some smaller events could move through next week.  Be nice to get a big bomb but the pattern isn't conducive for it to happen. 


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## dlague (Feb 28, 2017)

Well this says alot - Killington was 100% open a week and a half ago and today they are reporting 490 acres open of 1500 or so.


----------



## fbrissette (Feb 28, 2017)

dlague said:


> Well this says alot - Killington was 100% open a week and a half ago and today they are reporting 490 acres open of 1500 or so.



Some trails may be closed caused they are too dangerous (e.g. unskiable icy crust) and not because they are bare.


----------



## dlague (Feb 28, 2017)

fbrissette said:


> Some trails may be closed caused they are too dangerous (e.g. unskiable icy crust) and not because they are bare.



Isn't it warm there?  And do we think Killington will resurface the whole place?  I cannot fathom that idea.


----------



## fbrissette (Feb 28, 2017)

dlague said:


> Isn't it warm there?  And do we think Killington will resurface the whole place?  I cannot fathom that idea.



We'll see tomorrow when it gets real warm.


----------



## Glenn (Mar 1, 2017)

The big chill after today. Looks like winter temps will be back. Low double/single digit overnight temps for SoVT Friday night.


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## dlague (Mar 1, 2017)

Can we say ice!

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----------



## ALLSKIING (Mar 1, 2017)

Glenn said:


> The big chill after today. Looks like winter temps will be back. Low double/single digit overnight temps for SoVT Friday night.


For a short time then warm again. The story of this season.

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----------



## dlague (Mar 1, 2017)

ALLSKIING said:


> For a short time then warm again. The story of this season.
> 
> Sent from my LG-H901 using AlpineZone mobile app



Looking at the March forecast, it looks like it will get cold for a week then a warmish week then colder for a week then warm again sustained.


----------



## andrec10 (Mar 1, 2017)

I am glad I have 36 days in!


----------



## 4aprice (Mar 4, 2017)

Oh man, if only the Euro had a track record this winter, you would all be on your knees kissing the ground.  Gfs says NO.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## snoseek (Mar 5, 2017)

Looking ahead there is potential down the road. Still early.


----------



## NYDB (Mar 5, 2017)

so......same shit different week?

rain tues-wed then a hard freeze?  uke:


----------



## ss20 (Mar 5, 2017)

NY DirtBag said:


> so......same shit different week?
> 
> rain tues-wed then a hard freeze?  uke:



Very minor rain event.  Mostly showers.  There's only one night above freezing so the base that's out there will remain very well intact.  Yes, superficially we'll be back to last week after the rain, but without the catastrophic snowpack loss.  

But Friday onward into the foreseeable future could be _really_ productive in "rebuilding" and then some.  But there's so many pieces in play that the models won't pick up on a solution till the middle of this week.  Stay on your toes and remember the #1 rule in winter meteorology: DON'T JINX IT!!!


----------



## JimG. (Mar 5, 2017)

ss20 said:


> DON'T JINX IT!!!



So, I should lock this thread now?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 6, 2017)

snoseek said:


> Looking ahead there is potential down the road. Still early.



Lots of potential in the 7 to 10 day.  At this point, we NEED it to happen though.


----------



## bigbog (Mar 7, 2017)

Tomorrow(Wed) is the real temp hit, probably mid-40s in the western mtns(ME), but weekend temps are looking great...same dip as last weekend but not so radical.


----------



## hammer (Mar 7, 2017)

bigbog said:


> Tomorrow(Wed) is the real temp hit, probably mid-40s in the western mtns(ME), but weekend temps are looking great...same dip as last weekend but not so radical.


And what good will the colder temps do at this point?  Another weekend of icy groomers?


----------



## deadheadskier (Mar 7, 2017)

hammer said:


> And what good will the colder temps do at this point?  Another weekend of icy groomers?


Preserve season length. I'd rather an early March weekend be icy groomer skiing than spring conditions with the snow melting off the mountains.

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----------



## hammer (Mar 7, 2017)

deadheadskier said:


> Preserve season length. I'd rather an early March weekend be icy groomer skiing than spring conditions with the snow melting off the mountains.
> 
> Sent from my XT1565 using AlpineZone mobile app



Guess it depends on where you usually go.  Ski areas that usually remain open late season will ride out crappy conditions and be fine.  Can't see how smaller areas that depend on recreational skiers will stay open much longer.


----------



## Savemeasammy (Mar 7, 2017)

deadheadskier said:


> Preserve season length. I'd rather an early March weekend be icy groomer skiing than spring conditions with the snow melting off the mountains.
> 
> Sent from my XT1565 using AlpineZone mobile app



It's a bummer that we are going to our second "cold" Saturday in a row.  It's not particularly inspiring for skiers, and it's not great for the resorts who are hoping for skier visits.  


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----------



## dlague (Mar 7, 2017)

The northeast is once again in a weird weather pattern.  The radar looks threatening and the temps seems to be staying above freezing for the next couple days and then goes into a deep freeze into single digits.  Can't catch a beeak.

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----------



## Glenn (Mar 7, 2017)

Wondering if any of the areas will go for more resurfacing with another round of cold weather after yet another warm up.   This has been such a strange winter. Talk about peaks and valleys.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 7, 2017)

Long range looks more promising than before. Some decent chances for the middle-later part of the month.


----------



## Puck it (Mar 7, 2017)

dlague said:


> The northeast is once again in a weird weather pattern.  The radar looks threatening and the temps seems to be staying above freezing for the next couple days and then goes into a deep freeze into single digits.  Can't catch a beeak.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930P using AlpineZone mobile app


You take what the radar gives you!!!!


----------



## dlague (Mar 7, 2017)

Puck it said:


> You take what the radar gives you!!!!



Glad you are on board with that!


----------



## mriceyman (Mar 8, 2017)

Possible great pattern setting up for next week


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----------



## fcksummer (Mar 8, 2017)

mriceyman said:


> Possible great pattern setting up for next week
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


I'm headed to Florida for the week so you can basically consider the pattern confirmed.


----------



## Puck it (Mar 8, 2017)

fcksummer said:


> I'm headed to Florida for the week so you can basically consider the pattern confirmed.


Thx


----------



## yeggous (Mar 8, 2017)

Puck it said:


> Thx



You're welcome. I'm headed to the Alps tomorrow. Good luck guys!


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----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 8, 2017)

I'm really liking the set-up for this next shot on goal.  Still 6 days out, which it too far to get excited, but unlike most model porn, the conditions present actually make sense for a storm to develop.


----------



## mriceyman (Mar 8, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'm really liking the set-up for this next shot on goal.  Still 6 days out, which it too far to get excited, but unlike most model porn, the conditions present actually make sense for a storm to develop.



Yea nice to see many pieces falling into place 


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----------



## WJenness (Mar 8, 2017)

Was thinking about playing hookie for the better part of next week.

Two work things to get taken care of by Friday and I should be able to swing it...

Drumroll please...


----------



## andrec10 (Mar 8, 2017)

WJenness said:


> Was thinking about playing hookie for the better part of next week.
> 
> Two work things to get taken care of by Friday and I should be able to swing it...
> 
> Drumroll please...




Thanks...You just ruined it!


----------



## WJenness (Mar 8, 2017)

andrec10 said:


> Thanks...You just ruined it!



No, no...

I jinxed myself for the benefit of everyone else.

Everything will fall on my head now, I won't be able to take any time off from work, and next week will be amazing.

You're welcome.


----------



## dlague (Mar 8, 2017)

Well here is a lot of optimism

It’s amazing what an inch of heavy snow will do. Our trail count has jumped to 90% and with more snow in the forecast, we could be back to the 100% mark by the weekend.

*Glenn Fisher* That is awesome to hear! We will be coming up to visit from March 19th to 24th. You still think the glades will be in good enough shape to ride by any chance? Thanks in advance!
Like · Reply · 2 hrs
*Jay Peak Resort*
Jay Peak Resort We'd love to have that kind of crystal ball Glenn, but with *369" of snow* so far this season and March being our second snowiest month, that chance seems deep.

I wonder how much of that 369 inches of snow is still there!


----------



## Not Sure (Mar 8, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'm really liking the set-up for this next shot on goal.  Still 6 days out, which it too far to get excited, but unlike most model porn, the conditions present actually make sense for a storm to develop.


----------



## tnt1234 (Mar 8, 2017)

Wow - that would be awesome.....kids haven't had a snow day all year, and we're itching to ski one more day.....Tuesday> Wednesday FTW?


----------



## snoseek (Mar 8, 2017)

I have zero going on at work and class is on break next week so there's no way it snow....


----------



## Los (Mar 9, 2017)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> View attachment 22092



Yep. This.


----------



## tnt1234 (Mar 9, 2017)

Los said:


> Yep. This.



Aw come on.....we deserve one March dump.....


----------



## Los (Mar 9, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Aw come on.....we deserve one March dump.....



Of course we do!!! I just don't think it will happen...


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 9, 2017)

Another day closer and it's still looking good.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 9, 2017)

Looks like the Poconos get the next two storms. Guess I'll be at Jack Frost.


----------



## dlague (Mar 9, 2017)




----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 9, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> *Looks like the Poconos get the next two storms.* Guess I'll be at Jack Frost.



It does look that way, but it is the Poconos, so there's plenty of time to get screwed.   

I may actually show up at Shawnee or Camelback Tuesday night for my once-a-year Pocono trip if they do get 15 or so inches out of this.


----------



## hammer (Mar 9, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Another day closer and it's still looking good.


Mid-Atlantic, New England, both?


----------



## St. Bear (Mar 9, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> It does look that way, but it is the Poconos, so there's plenty of time to get screwed.
> 
> I may actually show up at Shawnee or Camelback Tuesday night for my once-a-year Pocono trip if they do get 15 or so inches out of this.
> 
> View attachment 22102


I may join you.


----------



## MommaBear (Mar 9, 2017)

Looking at the forecast (Weather Underground) - it looks like more southern - higher snow fall for home (CT) and Mount Snow than Killington or Sugarbush


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 9, 2017)

Now it looks like the Catskills and So Vt. are in on the action too. 

Would take Camelback over Shawnee on a rare powder day. Midweek, March... probably won't be any crowds to contend with. I'd rather Frost if Happyland has enough cover though.


----------



## Kleetus (Mar 9, 2017)

If this keeps trending the way it is maybe there's hope for a couple more days at Magic for this season after all via next weekend 


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----------



## ss20 (Mar 9, 2017)

Sweet.  Jesus.  

I know it's just _one_ run of _one_ models...but 00z GFS just spat out an epic storm that actually hits SKI COUNTRY.  Not New Jersey.  Not the Poconos.  Not Long Island.  Not the Cape.  Not just Sugarloaf and Sunday River.  ALL of ski country!

Solid 2 feet + in the Green Mountain spine, at Catskills, and the ADKs..


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 9, 2017)

Is there still anything on the ground in the southern Greens? Does Magic still have coverage or is this gonna fall on top of bare ground?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 9, 2017)

ss20 said:


> Sweet.  Jesus.
> 
> I know it's just _one_ run of _one_ models...but 00z GFS just spat out an epic storm that actually hits SKI COUNTRY.  Not New Jersey.  Not the Poconos.  Not Long Island.  Not the Cape.  Not just Sugarloaf and Sunday River.  ALL of ski country!
> 
> Solid 2 feet + in the Green Mountain spine, at Catskills, and the ADKs..



And the Canadian took the same system OTS, so Vermont gets 2 inches, and the 2 feet amounts are over Cape Cod and the ocean.  

It will be interesting to see the Euro run tonight, because prior to this run, the GFS, Canuck, and Euro were all in unusual lock-step agreement with this storm. 

 Now, while the GFS and Canadian both still have a huge snowstorm, the GFS is almost an ideal track for ski country, an Oprah System, but the Canadian is the worst-case scenario track for ski country, with a mere 6" in the Poconos being the biggest winner.


----------



## St. Bear (Mar 10, 2017)

For what it's worth from this blowhard.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/840182444225617920


----------



## NYDB (Mar 10, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> Is there still anything on the ground in the southern Greens? Does Magic still have coverage or is this gonna fall on top of bare ground?



Minimal to no coverage in so vt on natural terrain, depending on elevation/sun exposure.  Just look at magic webcam.


----------



## tnt1234 (Mar 10, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> Now it looks like the Catskills and So Vt. are in on the action too.
> 
> Would take Camelback over Shawnee on a rare powder day. Midweek, March... probably won't be any crowds to contend with. I'd rather Frost if Happyland has enough cover though.



Blue is fun with a ton of snow too. 

If my kids catch a snow day, might head up somewhere Wednesday.  Have coupons for Blue and CB....probably pick one of those two I suppose.


----------



## Glenn (Mar 10, 2017)

It's a bit far out to get excited, but there's potential Tuesday into Wednesday. I'll wait for the Sunday model runs before I start getting my hopes up.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 10, 2017)

Im torn between Blue and Jack Frost. I'll take Frost over Blue if Happyland is on though.


----------



## dlague (Mar 10, 2017)

ss20 said:


> Sweet.  Jesus.
> 
> I know it's just _one_ run of _one_ models...but 00z GFS just spat out an epic storm that actually hits SKI COUNTRY.  Not New Jersey.  Not the Poconos.  Not Long Island.  Not the Cape.  Not just Sugarloaf and Sunday River.  ALL of ski country!
> 
> ...


Holy shit! That would be perfect for the Northeast and would put a lot back in play!

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----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2017)

dlague said:


> Holy shit! That would be perfect for the Northeast and would put a lot back in play!



As long as the following storm doesnt change to rain like it does on the GFS today.  If so it would only be back in play for maybe Thursday through Saturday (assuming it will be too windy to ski Wednesday).   We need that next system to get just a bit colder.


----------



## tumbler (Mar 10, 2017)

Haven't most of them been colder than originally modeled?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2017)

This pic is for Scotty.   

The 12z GFS Kucheras > 3 feet on Platty.  LOL @ snowporn.


----------



## Not Sure (Mar 10, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> This pic is for Scotty.
> 
> The 12z GFS Kucheras > 3 feet on Platty.  LOL @ snowporn.
> 
> View attachment 22106



LOL ...Deja Vu ....Whole season average snowfall in one storm.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 10, 2017)

Bring it.


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## St. Bear (Mar 10, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> This pic is for Scotty.
> 
> The 12z GFS Kucheras > 3 feet on Platty.  LOL @ snowporn.
> 
> View attachment 22106




Elk?


----------



## VTKilarney (Mar 10, 2017)

Why do these models always seem to greatly exaggerate the amount of snow we really get?  Are they intended to be a "worst case" scenario?  Because if they aren't, it seems like they are consistently WAY off.


----------



## Cornhead (Mar 10, 2017)

Please be right, we deserve it after the past month. Only called in one day this season, and it wasn't even a powder day. Got lucky with quite a few weekend powder days early. Boss is back from vacation, just about caught up, calling in shouldn't be an issue. Bring it!

Sent from my Moto G (4) using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## andrec10 (Mar 10, 2017)

Yes please!


----------



## St. Bear (Mar 10, 2017)

VTKilarney said:


> Why do these models always seem to greatly exaggerate the amount of snow we really get?  Are they intended to be a "worst case" scenario?  Because if they aren't, it seems like they are consistently WAY off.



Models are not forecasts. They spit out the amount of precipitation that they expect will fall from the sky, but they don't factor in things like a warm ground, or evaporation before it hits the ground, etc?  Even timing of the storm, how much falls before the sun rises for instance, especially in March vs Jan or Feb, can make a huge difference.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2017)

VTKilarney said:


> Why do these models always seem to greatly exaggerate the amount of snow we really get?  Are they intended to be a "worst case" scenario?  Because if they aren't, it seems like they are consistently WAY off.



Not so.   The big storm last winter I was under 12" to 15" where I live several days out, and I wound up with 36".   NWS repeatedly kept having to increase snow totals (they looked really bad).


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2017)

FYI, mid-day Euro snowplot is in, and it's also still displaying a blizzard, just a bit more to the east than the GFS, so obviously lower snow totals, but still a good 15" or 16" for the Poconos.


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## John W (Mar 10, 2017)

ELK WOULD BE THE BEST PLACE ON THE PLANET FOR SNOWFALL.. Looks like Elk, Blue, Camelback, Jack Frost, Platty, Belleayre and Minnewaska would be the jackpot.. Maybe VVGG also.(mountain creek for your young people)


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 10, 2017)

Looks like a visit to Happyland is in order.


----------



## snoseek (Mar 10, 2017)

How will Hunter do from this or even Mount Snow? More than say Wildcat/Attitash?


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2017)

Stayed up to see the Euro, now I'm going to bed.  Came west a bit, still looks great.



And if you Kuchera it up it's 2 feet in the Poconos (and at Platty).


----------



## Not Sure (Mar 11, 2017)

John W said:


> ELK WOULD BE THE BEST PLACE ON THE PLANET FOR SNOWFALL.. Looks like Elk, Blue, Camelback, Jack Frost, Platty, Belleayre and Minnewaska would be the jackpot.. Maybe VVGG also.(mountain creek for your young people)



1+ I had a knee deep run on Lakawanna this december when they first dropped the rope. Still sore about them not dropping ropes elsewhere 8" everywhere else . Two feet would be awesome .


----------



## thebigo (Mar 11, 2017)

snoseek said:


> How will Hunter do from this or even Mount Snow? More than say Wildcat/Attitash?



You will want to be at wildcat once the winds allow the chair to spin.


----------



## Tin (Mar 11, 2017)

Sweet clown maps. Too bad it is exiting stage right.


----------



## Glenn (Mar 11, 2017)

Wow! Now those are some interesting totals.


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## Tin (Mar 11, 2017)

Glenn said:


> Wow! Now those are some interesting totals.



LOL


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2017)

12z runs

*GFS *- Good run, stays put, still has blizzard

*Canadian *- Great run, moves a bit west, which is very good news, still not a great storm for ski country, but trend west toward other models is good news.

*Euro *- moves way far east, which is horrible for everyone and kills ski country hopes, but this is just an op run, so no need to jump off a cliff unless the ensemble run looks the same, and I doubt it will


----------



## Tin (Mar 11, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> 12z runs
> 
> *GFS *- Good run, stays put, still has blizzard
> 
> ...




Still 72 hours out and the systems are not even on our continent, a shit load can happen. Majority of EURO ensembles put it west of the forecast, trash the 12z run. Ukie kept it west. I'm still planning on driving up Tuesday am.


----------



## thebigo (Mar 11, 2017)

Tin said:


> Majority of EURO ensembles put it west of the forecast, trash the 12z run.


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## Tin (Mar 11, 2017)

NAM a little quicker, not exactly a tick east though. Similar course.

Subtract ~30% of the total liquid then multiply by 13.


----------



## cm0311 (Mar 11, 2017)

Was just speaking to a meteorologist from Accuweather who said models are showing it moving further east. 
When I asked him what that meant for the White Mountains he mentioned more snow unless it tracks too Far East.


----------



## Tin (Mar 11, 2017)

cm0311 said:


> Was just speaking to a meteorologist from Accuweather who said models are showing it moving further east.
> When I asked him what that meant for the White Mountains he mentioned more snow unless it tracks too Far East.



If they work for Accuweather they are a dumbass and one Euro over-correction run = "models bringing it east" demonstrates that. LOL

The Euro has been absolute shit this year and in previous years. If the 0z GFS goes east then I will agree.

NWS is disregarding "models moving it east" and posting blizzard watches along the shore, and NWS Burlington going with a widespread 12-18.


----------



## cm0311 (Mar 11, 2017)

Then why are you not broadcasting for a major network if your so talented? You remind me of all the wannabe engineers I have to deal with.


----------



## Tin (Mar 11, 2017)

cm0311 said:


> Then why are you not broadcasting for a major network of your so talented? You remind me of all the wannabe engineers out there. They think they know science.



Because I'm an engineer. It is impossible to "know science" if you don't understand the mathematics that underlies everything science and its  tools attempts to explain/measure. Look at any technology in science; whether it is medical imaging, anything astro, or met models, it is all math and physics. Every pretty image you see that describes/attempts to predict a event/phenomena is based in numbers basic rules of physics. Fuck science, acquire math skillz and general principals.


----------



## cm0311 (Mar 11, 2017)

Tin said:


> Because I'm an engineer.



I hope you have a BSME laying around the house then.

I'm going to call you out. I say it tracks further east and mass gets the heaviest.


----------



## thebigo (Mar 11, 2017)

cm0311 said:


> I hope you have a BSME laying around the house then.
> 
> I'm going to call you out. I say it tracks further east and mass gets the heaviest.



Not one for a pissing contest but please name the met from accuweather and the model. I am not a met, just a hobby of mine but my understanding is that the energies will not be fully sampled until tonight's 0z. Anybody, claiming to know the outcome is misrepresenting educated opinion as fact. Oh and as if it mattered, my bsme is somewhere in the attic or maybe the basement, next to my masters degree.


----------



## Tin (Mar 11, 2017)

cm0311 said:


> I hope you have a BSME laying around the house then.
> 
> I'm going to call you out. I say it tracks further east and mass gets the heaviest.



Eastern Mass has been the bull's eye for the actual system QPF, it's just a matter of ratios and if it stays frozen. The wrap around will crank for the northern spine and Whites until Thursday morning and add an extra 8-12"+ ontop of storm totals.



thebigo said:


> Not one for a pissing contest but please name the met from accuweather. I am not a met, just a hobby of mine but my understanding is that the energies will not be fully sampled until tonight's 0z. Anybody, claiming to know the outcome is misrepresenting educated opinion as fact. Oh and as if it mattered, my bsme is somewhere in the attick or maybe the basement, next to my masters degree.



He doesn't realize I'm completely fucking with him. But no one should ever cite accuweather, TWC, and 90% of Twitter mets. And yes, the factors have really yet to even reach our continent.


----------



## cm0311 (Mar 11, 2017)

thebigo said:


> Not one for a pissing contest but please name the met from accuweather and the model. I am not a met, just a hobby of mine but my understanding is that the energies will not be fully sampled until tonight's 0z. Anybody, claiming to know the outcome is misrepresenting educated opinion as fact. Oh and as if it mattered, my bsme is somewhere in the attic or maybe the basement, next to my masters degree.



Haha yes we are all engineers now. Have a nice day.

I know how big my dick is, I don't need to see how far I can piss too.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2017)

Tin said:


> Sweet clown maps. *Too bad it is exiting stage right*.





Tin said:


> Still 72 hours out and the systems are not even on our continent, a shit load can happen. *Majority of EURO ensembles put it west of the forecast, trash the 12z run. Ukie kept it west. I'm still planning on driving up Tuesday am*.



That's a heckuva sentiment shift in < 1 hour!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2017)

cm0311 said:


> Was *just speaking to a meteorologist from Accuweather who said models are showing it moving further east.*
> When I asked him what that meant for the White Mountains he mentioned more snow unless it tracks too Far East.



That is definitely not true at all, so it's weird an actual met from Accuweather would say that.

The GFS came east, but it was the western outlier, so that's pretty much meaningless.

The Canadian went well west.

The Euro slightly ticked east, but so little that it's not even worth calling an east or west or north or south shift.


----------



## cm0311 (Mar 11, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> That is definitely not true at all, so it's weird an actual met from Accuweather would say that.
> 
> The GFS came east, but it was the western outlier, so that's pretty much meaningless.
> 
> ...



Little disappointed eastern areas and seacoast due for jackpot. Rather see it up in ski country.

Better then nothing though that is for sure!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2017)

cm0311 said:


> Little disappointed eastern areas and seacoast due for jackpot. Rather see it up in ski country.
> 
> Better then nothing though that is for sure!



  Still a lot of time left and anything can happen as the energy isnt even over land yet.  What you REALLY dont want to see is an eastern tick with the 00z tonight, that could be really bad news.


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## Not Sure (Mar 11, 2017)

EPWA First call ....I need at least 18" for my favorite  BC run....Pls Ullr


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## Kleetus (Mar 11, 2017)

Well big eastern tick with the 00Z GFS tonight. Maybe 6-10 for VT if that. Maybe the ECMWF is better?? I hope so cause not looking good in the GFS right now. Some snow is better than none, but big swing from what it had been showing so far.


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## cm0311 (Mar 11, 2017)

Kleetus said:


> Well big eastern tick with the 00Z GFS tonight. Maybe 6-10 for VT if that. Maybe the ECMWF is better?? I hope so cause not looking good in the GFS right now. Some snow is better than none, but big swing from what it had been showing so far.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Sunday River is in the jackpot. Even more than the white mountains.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2017)

The 00z Euro just spat out a solution that, if it's correct would be an absolutely historic snowstorm.

Not in terms of huge amounts of snow in any given area, but in terms of a large snowfall over a positively massive area, as in >= 10" from Virginia to Quebec = WOW.


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## Tin (Mar 12, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> That's a heckuva sentiment shift in < 1 hour!


----------



## Tin (Mar 12, 2017)

As of now, higher heights in eastern Canada, more amped ridge, further west block = more liquid, slower, and more west this morning. We are getting inside 48 hours so time to go to meso models.

Deform bands looking to set up best in the Catskills, NW CT, Berks, and southern VT. 

For those trying to ski Weds.

Sections of NY and CT could be looking at 3-4" per hour rates (possibly Feb 2013 type rates of 6" per hour+) for an extended time Tuesday afternoon. Get out Monday night or first thing Tuesday (before 8am) or youre screwed. 

Shit goes wild Tuesday afternoon for southern New England. Boston will be a nightmare by Tuesday evening, probably about 6" down and absolutely cranking 1-2" per hour rates+. Wind along the shore looking to be 50+. Legit blizzard

The wrap around is going to crank up and down the spine for days following. Would not be shocked to see everyone from K north grab an extra 12"+ between Weds night and Friday am. Could be one of those 4' weeks for Jay.

Forget skiing for a second. Heavy wet snow in CT, RI, and eastern Mass + this = disaster  (NAM maybe a bit over modeled but this is also in knots)


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## powhunter (Mar 12, 2017)

Tin said:


> As of now, higher heights in eastern Canada, more amped ridge, further west block = more liquid, slower, and more west this morning. We are getting inside 48 hours so time to go to meso models.
> 
> Deform bands looking to set up best in the Catskills, NW CT, Berks, and southern VT.
> 
> ...



So your saying the moguls at Sundown are going to be fucking epic?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Tin (Mar 12, 2017)

I would be surprised if Sundown has power to run the lifts to be honest. The Nemo-like deform bands and winds that are going to hit CT (even NW CT) and Mass are going to be insane. 

Given all the wind of the previous few days it has probably weakened some trees/limbs, then throw snow and more wind on and it could be bad.


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## Puck it (Mar 12, 2017)

Tin said:


> I would be surprised if Sundown has power to run the lifts to be honest. The Nemo-like deform bands and winds that are going to hit CT (even NW CT) and Mass are going to be insane.
> 
> Given all the wind of the previous few days it has probably weakened some trees/limbs, then throw snow and more wind on and it could be bad.


So you are saying there is a chance!


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## powhunter (Mar 12, 2017)

Fake weather [emoji304]


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## Tin (Mar 12, 2017)

Puck it said:


> So you are saying there is a chance!


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## Tin (Mar 12, 2017)

powhunter said:


> Fake weather [emoji304]
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



It can't be. Breitbart is reporting it.


----------



## Savemeasammy (Mar 12, 2017)

powhunter said:


> So your saying the moguls at Sundown are going to be fucking epic?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Maybe those bumps they just seeded get completely buried?  You need to be on duty during the storm to ski them to keep that from happening!


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## powhunter (Mar 12, 2017)

At least one line! You should come down wed


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2017)

Crazy thing about this storm is there was such perfect agreement with the models a few days ago, now that we're closer to the event, there's little agreement other than the fact there's going to be a big snowstorm.  This is completely opposite from normal, as usually there's dispersion ahead of an event, and as the event nears the models tighten up.

Basically, regardless of where you live, if you want big snow, there's a map for that!  There's also a model (or two) that will screw you.

At this moment, based on the confluence of models, if I were pressed, I'd guess Berks to s.VT to s.NH ski areas will be the biggest winners.   Likewise, if pressed, I'd guess ADK is most likely to get screwed, followed by Jay Peak, but again, everyone gets some snow.


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## Tin (Mar 12, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> At this moment, based on the confluence of models, if I were pressed, I'd guess Berks to s.VT to s.NH ski areas will be the biggest winners.   Likewise, if pressed, I'd guess ADK is most likely to get screwed, followed by Jay Peak, but again, everyone gets some snow.




Deform band central for Cats, Berks, SVT to SNH taking into account before frames. Legit 3-4"+ per hour stuff.

Although the GFS appears further east on the low track it is just slower and actually a step west.


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## St. Bear (Mar 12, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Likewise, if pressed, I'd guess ADK is most likely to get screwed, followed by Jay Peak, but again, everyone gets some snow.



I'm irrationally convinced Poconos will end up with 5-7". While not technically screwed, it would be a disappointment after the hype.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2017)

Tin said:


> Although the GFS appears further east on the low track it is just slower and actually a step west.



The 12z GFS by far screws the most skiers, definitely the farthest east of the models, that would stink no doubt.   The 12z Canuck that just finished and is west of that would please everyone though.   So net/net, the 12z Euro run that's about to happen is by far the most important run of this entire storm, to see if it holds serve with the Canadian or wobbles east to the GFS.   I'm hopeful it will stay west given the NAM is now in range, and that NAM looked absolutely great for literally every eastern skier.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2017)

St. Bear said:


> *I'm irrationally convinced Poconos will end up with 5-7".* While not technically screwed, it would be a disappointment after the hype.



That's no longer completely irrational, as I mentioned, there's a map for that!  It's called the 12z GFS, puts about 5" - 8" in the Poconos, the least of any map.  

You'd rather have 2 FEET?  There's a map for that too!  It's the 12z Canuck, probably 20" - 24" in the Pokes. 

Complete model disagreement at *< 36 hours.*


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## Tin (Mar 12, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> The 12z GFS by far screws the most skiers, definitely the farthest east of the models,



It was slower and west of its previous models at 6z. Not picking up the SW enough. Ukie just put down feet from NY and southern New England Ski areas.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2017)

Tin said:


> Ukie just put down feet from NY and southern New England Ski areas.



That thing's hysterical.  Historic.  

Too bad I cant recall a single time when the UKMET nailed an eastern winter storm better than the ECMWF, GFS, Canuck, etc....


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2017)

Ugh.... Canadian ensembles out and it's well east of the operational run.  That's.....not good.


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## Tin (Mar 12, 2017)

EURO = Top 3/5 snowstorm for NYC and New England


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## Savemeasammy (Mar 12, 2017)

powhunter said:


> At least one line! You should come down wed
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



I have ski vt vouchers to burn...


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## Tin (Mar 12, 2017)

Not a kuchera fan but this is BELIEVABLE given temps (14-15:1). Maybe knock off 2-3".


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## Not Sure (Mar 12, 2017)

2nd call ....Yes....Escape route planning ????


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2017)

^I'm wondering how this will play out with wind and other issues.

  I imagine even if the wind dies down, I'm guessing Tuesday evening is an absolute no-go due to the 19th century nature of the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation's Roads Department?  At that point I'm just hoping kids dont have off Wednesday to tear it all up, and maybe I can leave work early and get to Shawnee by 5pm or so.  

Call it 15" to 25" for the Poconos right now, and that doesnt happen every winter, so I definitely want to go.


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## Glenn (Mar 12, 2017)

Hoping this delivers for SoVT.  Albany office has a winter storm watch for SoVT right now.  Fingers crossed for an upgrade for a warning.  

Surely it's going to be a s-show in the flatlands.  I think I can hear the complaining now.  ; ) 


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## St. Bear (Mar 12, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> ^I'm wondering how this will play out with wind and other issues.
> 
> I imagine even if the wind dies down, I'm guessing Tuesday evening is an absolute no-go due to the 19th century nature of the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation's Roads Department?  At that point I'm just hoping kids dont have off Wednesday to tear it all up, and maybe I can leave work early and get to Shawnee by 5pm or so.
> 
> Call it 15" to 25" for the Poconos right now, and that doesnt happen every winter, so I definitely want to go.



I put in for PTO on Wed last week, so your lips to Brady's ears.

I'm thinking JFBB, mostly because I've never been.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2017)

Glenn said:


> *Hoping this delivers for SoVT. *



You're looking good.   At this point, that's in the 2nd place slot of ski country for this storm.



St. Bear said:


> I'm thinking JFBB, mostly because I've never been.



Never been there either, mainly cause it's a bit farther from me than Shawnee, Camelback, and Blue Mountain.


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## snoseek (Mar 12, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> You're looking good.   At this point, that's in the 2nd place slot of ski country for this storm.
> 
> 
> 
> Never been there either, mainly cause it's a bit farther from me than Shawnee, Camelback, and Blue Mountain.





How is NH looking? Specifically the East side (Wildcat and MWV)?

Thanks


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## St. Bear (Mar 12, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Never been there either, mainly cause it's a bit farther from me than Shawnee, Camelback, and Blue Mountain.



Those are the places you want to ski.


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## Rowsdower (Mar 12, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Never been there either, mainly cause it's a bit farther from me than Shawnee, Camelback, and Blue Mountain.



I got a season pass to JF/BB this winter. Jack Frost is like a smaller, quieter Blue Mountain without the high speed lifts and somewhat colder temps being on top of the Pocono Plateau. 

There are maintained glades skiers right of Thunderbolt, Challenge (Happyland), and Floyd's Folly (east "left" side of the mountain looking at the map) which are I believe the only "official" gladed runs in the Poconos. Steeps are short but have got a decent pitch. I've enjoyed it as PA mountains go. 

If they get 12 inches+ it'll be a tough decision. Blue is closer, but I enjoy Jack Frost for open woods, and Camelback is just Camelback and will probably do something like groom everything out for Wednesday.


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## bigbog (Mar 12, 2017)

Flurries all around the area this evening, Madison to Bangor. Hope the major event doesn't drift out to sea too much.  Hoping for something @SL Wednesday AM.


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## tnt1234 (Mar 12, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> I got a season pass to JF/BB this winter. Jack Frost is like a smaller, quieter Blue Mountain without the high speed lifts and somewhat colder temps being on top of the Pocono Plateau.
> 
> There are maintained glades skiers right of Thunderbolt, Challenge (Happyland), and Floyd's Folly (east "left" side of the mountain looking at the map) which are I believe the only "official" gladed runs in the Poconos. Steeps are short but have got a decent pitch. I've enjoyed it as PA mountains go.
> 
> If they get 12 inches+ it'll be a tough decision. Blue is closer, but I enjoy Jack Frost for open woods, and Camelback is just Camelback and will probably do something like groom everything out for Wednesday.



Blue has two very short maintained glades on the map...Blue Baumer at the top of Lazy Mile and Sleepy Hollow, skier's left of Main Street.  Both are really short.  There are a bunch of bike trails and other areas at blue that are really fun if there is enough snow.  They don't really have the open woods policy that JF has, but I've never been yelled at there.  Not sure what the base is like in the pokes, so not really sure even this big dump will ut much of that stuff in play.

But if there is a ton of snow and you can get there the day after, I think Blue is the way to go.  They will probably not groom everything the first day - at least that was true last year after that one big storm....they left Switch Back and Nightmare>Dream Weaver ungroomed and it was great.


Jack Frost is a lot of fun with snow, but if you can hit it right after the storm, I think I would go for the higher vertical and high speed lifts of Blue.

Other option is Elk....farther if you are coming from the south, but they definitely don't groom everything out.  They do not allow any tree skiing at all though.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2017)

snoseek said:


> *How is NH looking? Specifically the East side (Wildcat and MWV)?*



So after looking up Wildcat on a map because I had absolutely no idea where it is.........

Here's my "eyeball" guess at what the various 12z runs have for that area today from looking at the pretty colors on the various models.

GFS ensembles = 5" or 6"
GFS op run      = 6"

Canuck ensembles = 9"
Canuck op run      = 13"

Euro ensembles = 12"
Euro op run      =  26"

UKIE* = 12"

*18z and no snow maps with the UKIE, so I did the math on the qpf it spits out and that's what it translates to




Rowsdower said:


> Blue is closer, but I enjoy Jack Frost for open woods, and *Camelback is just Camelback and will probably do something like groom everything out for Wednesday.*



4aprice mentioned he hit Camelback on the 20" day last year and they did just that.  I would have been violently angry and burned the place down.   Blue Mountain did the right thing and let it remain powder.   Pretty sure I'll hit Shawnee Wednesday if this plays out right, as I think it will be the least crowded of the options.



tnt1234 said:


> Other option is *Elk*....farther if you are coming from the south, but they definitely don't groom everything out.  *They do not allow any tree skiing at all *though.



Fascists.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 12, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Blue has two very short maintained glades on the map...Blue Baumer at the top of Lazy Mile and Sleepy Hollow, skier's left of Main Street.  Both are really short.  There are a bunch of bike trails and other areas at blue that are really fun if there is enough snow.  They don't really have the open woods policy that JF has, but I've never been yelled at there.  Not sure what the base is like in the pokes, so not really sure even this big dump will ut much of that stuff in play.
> 
> But if there is a ton of snow and you can get there the day after, I think Blue is the way to go.  They will probably not groom everything the first day - at least that was true last year after that one big storm....they left Switch Back and Nightmare>Dream Weaver ungroomed and it was great.
> 
> ...



There's about 3-4 inches on the ground now. Not much, but maintained glades need less snow. I was at Blue last year after the big storm and ended up bushwhacking. Bad idea. If there isn't any base you need that area cleared out, or otherwise know what areas are relatively obstacle free. 

You can definitely have fun up there after a big storm. Well, you can have fun anywhere after a big storm 

Oh, also, I keep hearing these stories about the Elk patrol yanking passes for ducking into the woods. I've never encountered that. I *have* witnessed people get passes pulled for skiing the woods or ripping up the liftline at Camelback.


----------



## Not Sure (Mar 12, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Not sure what the base is like in the pokes, so not really sure even this big dump will ut much of that stuff in play.
> .





Blue from this past thursday , looked like they made a decent effort making snow to get through the blowtorch, not sure if they have made any since, they reported 6" from the last storm . Lots of video on youtube of guys cutting through the mountain bike areas and a few other spots but Blue has lots of undergrowth around ,just have to pick your way through .


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 12, 2017)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Blue from this past thursday , looked like they made a decent effort making snow to get through the blowtorch, not sure if they have made any since, they reported 6" from the last storm . Lots of video on youtube of guys cutting through the mountain bike areas and a few other spots but Blue has lots of undergrowth around ,just have to pick your way through .



I was at Bear Creek today and there was about 2-3 inches of natural snow on the ground. I suspect the Poconos have a little more, and they were making a lot of snow through last night. Coverage was pretty good most everywhere.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2017)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> View attachment 22130
> 
> Blue from this past thursday



Holy crap I had no idea it was that desperate up there.  If that's representative of most trails it would be nearly season over without more snow.


----------



## Not Sure (Mar 12, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> There's about 3-4 inches on the ground now. Not much, but maintained glades need less snow. I was at Blue last year after the big storm and ended up bushwhacking. Bad idea. If there isn't any base you need that area cleared out, or otherwise know what areas are relatively obstacle free.
> 
> You can definitely have fun up there after a big storm. Well, you can have fun anywhere after a big storm
> 
> Oh, also, I keep hearing these stories about the Elk patrol yanking passes for ducking into the woods. I've never encountered that. I *have* witnessed people get passes pulled for skiing the woods or ripping up the liftline at Camelback.



The Elk Gestapo is for real ,rode the lift with a patroller who spotted a set of board tracks on a roped off trail " Ah ha! a cople of shredders I'm going to catch them " . Myself and another skier this year were begging the patrollers to drop the rope at the top of an untracked 24" trail in December . They said the decision was not in there hands ....I serously contemplated ripping off my ticket and handing it to them .It rained a day or two later :angry: . I think the place needs new owners a BG laments! So much potential glade skiing going to waste.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 12, 2017)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> The Elk Gestapo is for real ,rode the lift with a patroller who spotted a set of board tracks on a roped off trail " Ah ha! a cople of shredders I'm going to catch them " . Myself and another skier this year were begging the patrollers to drop the rope at the top of an untracked 24" trail in December . They said the decision was not in there hands ....I serously contemplated ripping off my ticket and handing it to them .It rained a day or two later :angry: . I think the place needs new owners a BG laments! So much potential glade skiing going to waste.



That's a damn shame. I guess the stories are warranted then. I haven't been there in years and the distance keeps me from making the trip. 

Anyway, if we do get 24 inches I won't be going anywhere Tuesday, so now I'm looking for any potential hikes in Bucks Co. I've also been tossing around the idea of staying with my folks out in Berks Co. The forest behind our property there has got several logging roads and old drovers/mine access roads that could be interesting if two feet of snow drop on them.


----------



## Not Sure (Mar 12, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> I was at Bear Creek today and there was about 2-3 inches of natural snow on the ground. I suspect the Poconos have a little more, and they were making a lot of snow through last night. Coverage was pretty good most everywhere.



Bear creek has a few fun  gladed areas .....Caveat and a lot of BIG rocks , shame it has no pitch for a big snow .


----------



## Not Sure (Mar 12, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> That's a damn shame. I guess the stories are warranted then. I haven't been there in years and the distance keeps me from making the trip.
> 
> Anyway, if we do get 24 inches I won't be going anywhere Tuesday, so now I'm looking for any potential hikes in Bucks Co. I've also been tossing around the idea of staying with my folks out in Berks Co. The forest behind our property there has got several logging roads and old drovers/mine access roads that could be interesting if two feet of snow drop on them.



Worth the ride ! The last three times I've been there the Poc's were crap and Elk was powder.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 12, 2017)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Bear creek has a few fun  gladed areas .....Caveat and a lot of BIG rocks , shame it has no pitch for a big snow .



They cleared out some of the woods for mountain biking. You're right though, none have any pitch. 

We used to joke about the "back bowls". There are some snowmobile trails off the backside but you have to hike out.


----------



## Not Sure (Mar 12, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> They cleared out some of the woods for mountain biking. You're right though, none have any pitch.
> 
> We used to joke about the "back bowls". There are some snowmobile trails off the backside but you have to hike out.



Going to JT on Wednesday morning 3 possibilities as long as the forecast delivers or there's always this if we only get 6"


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 12, 2017)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Going to JT on Wednesday morning 3 possibilities as long as the forecast delivers or there's always this if we only get 6"
> View attachment 22131



You take what you can get in PA.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2017)

00z NAM is in and it has me REALLY excited.  

Why?  Because it was one of only 2 models (GFS) that were raining on many people's ski parade by:

A) keeping snow totals down below other models
B) not making this a Ski The East event, but more of a Pocono, s.VT, s.NH event.   

That's TOTALLY changed with the 00z run, which is a beautiful Oprah run.  YOU get a snowstorm!  YOU get a snowstorm!  And YOU get a snowstorm!  EVERYbody gehts a snowstorm!

Lastly, the NAM is now in it's sweet-spot range that it's designed for, given more confidence that this is potentially correct.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2017)

And then there were NONE.  

00z GFS caves to the other models!!!!!!


----------



## Tin (Mar 13, 2017)

This is scary. 



The pink deform band is Feb 2013-like and will throw down 4-6" per hour.


----------



## Bostonian (Mar 13, 2017)

Tin am I reading that first chart right with wind gusts in excess of 60MPH through most of massachusetts?  That is scary!


----------



## Tin (Mar 13, 2017)

Bostonian said:


> Tin am I reading that first chart right with wind gusts in excess of 60MPH through most of massachusetts?  That is scary!




Yes, everyone is caught up with the snow yet these will be some of the craziest winds since Hurricane Bob for RI/E Mass. Factor in the more NW track, which means mixing and heavy wet snow, and there will be TONS of power outages.


----------



## Bostonian (Mar 13, 2017)

Tin said:


> Yes, everyone is caught up with the snow yet these will be some of the craziest winds since Hurricane Bob for RI/E Mass. Factor in the more NW track, which means mixing and heavy wet snow, and there will be TONS of power outages.



Well hopefully, people will be able to weather the storm with minimal impacts.  The other concern now I see with the high winds would be the storm surge within our coastal communities.  Looks like we will all be hunkered down for a good 24 hours.


----------



## Glenn (Mar 13, 2017)

NWS out of Albany has issued a WSW for SoVT.  Wondering if they'll change that to a Blizzard warning with the winds. 

Glad I have my chainsaw in CT for this event.  We lost two ash trees last storm.

But this storm should be pretty big!  Be safe everyone.


----------



## tnt1234 (Mar 13, 2017)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> View attachment 22130
> 
> Blue from this past thursday , looked like they made a decent effort making snow to get through the blowtorch, not sure if they have made any since, they reported 6" from the last storm . Lots of video on youtube of guys cutting through the mountain bike areas and a few other spots but Blue has lots of undergrowth around ,just have to pick your way through .



Yikes.  That's thin.


----------



## tnt1234 (Mar 13, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> That's a damn shame. I guess the stories are warranted then. I haven't been there in years and the distance keeps me from making the trip.
> 
> Anyway, if we do get 24 inches I won't be going anywhere Tuesday, so now I'm looking for any potential hikes in Bucks Co. I've also been tossing around the idea of staying with my folks out in Berks Co. The forest behind our property there has got several logging roads and old drovers/mine access roads that could be interesting if two feet of snow drop on them.



Where are you in Bucks?  Are you looking to hike to ski, or just to trek through the snow?

Belle Mountain with 24" could be fun....


----------



## billski (Mar 13, 2017)

Glenn said:


> NWS out of Albany has issued a WSW for SoVT.  Wondering if they'll change that to a Blizzard warning with the winds.


My plan isn't to be safe.  It's to be fun.   Winds won't be near as strong the further inland you go.  I'm leaving for the mts. today in advance of the snow, traffic and winds. That will get me to a safe refuge at inland mountains to grab the snow and upslope snow the next couple of days.  I'll just stay there until the power is restored and the roads are plowed.  Then again, maybe I'll just stay there...


----------



## Puck it (Mar 13, 2017)

billski said:


> My plan isn't to be safe.  It's to be fun.   Winds won't be near as strong the further inland you go.  I'm leaving for the mts. today in advance of the snow, traffic and winds. That will get me to a safe refuge at inland mountains to grab the snow and upslope snow the next couple of days.  I'll just stay there until the power is restored and the roads are plowed.  Then again, maybe I'll just stay there...


 Wow you are skiing for real.


----------



## WJenness (Mar 13, 2017)

Preview of tomorrow's weather report from Eastern MA:


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 13, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Where are you in Bucks?  Are you looking to hike to ski, or just to trek through the snow?
> 
> Belle Mountain with 24" could be fun....



Is Belle Mountain steep enough? I was contemplating Bowman's Hill or Baldpate Mtn. I know you can't mountain bike around Bowman's Hill so I'm not sure how'd they'd take to skiing.


----------



## billski (Mar 13, 2017)

Here's the worst of the winds: late day tomorrow:
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=41.64;-73.99;6&l=wind&t=20170314/21


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 13, 2017)

The 12z NAM today is the absolute best for all of east coast ski country.  

Tucks the surface low into the coast and then takes it right on top of Beantown.  This allows for big snows even well west.  Even the ski areas that get "screwed" under this scenario would get 12 or 13 inches!  Jackpot would be the Poconos at about 25 inches.    I wish I could lock that map in and just make it reality.



billski said:


> Here's the worst of the winds: late day tomorrow:
> https://www.ventusky.com/?p=41.64;-73.99;6&l=wind&t=20170314/21



I'll take the over.


----------



## Tin (Mar 13, 2017)

billski said:


> Here's the worst of the winds: late day tomorrow:
> https://www.ventusky.com/?p=41.64;-73.99;6&l=wind&t=20170314/21




Not at all the worst. Long Island and the Vineyard/Block will confirm hurricane force.


----------



## Puck it (Mar 13, 2017)

Tin said:


> Not at all the worst. Long Island and the Vineyard/Block will confirm hurricane force.


ACK too!   You're welcome


----------



## Tin (Mar 13, 2017)

Puck it said:


> ACK too!   You're welcome



Screw your pink shorts and Sperrys!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 13, 2017)

Joe B thinks this storm is going to be somewhat north than models depict, so he's increased his snow call to the north.   

Obviously this would be great news for most of ski country if he's correct.  

While he's using his experience and knowledge rather than computerized outputs to reach his conclusion, the only ski areas this screws over would be in the Poconos, so I'm already inclined to believe he might be correct!  #Pokesalwaysshafted #uncanny


----------



## tnt1234 (Mar 13, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> Is Belle Mountain steep enough? I was contemplating Bowman's Hill or Baldpate Mtn. I know you can't mountain bike around Bowman's Hill so I'm not sure how'd they'd take to skiing.



Yeah, the old expert slope at Belle is steep enough to ski.  All 190 glorious vertical feet of it!

Did you grow up around here?  i used to ski there when it was open.  Such great memories....what a looney place that was.

Haven't been to Bowman's tower in years but I don't remember that being to steep.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 13, 2017)

Here's a local guy I follow (not famous or even employed as a met, just a guy with a meteorology degree who knows his stuff) who is also on-board with the logic that this storm with tuck west and be a bit north.  I love how detailed his maps are and how he explains his logic.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 13, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Yeah, the old expert slope at Belle is steep enough to ski.  All 190 glorious vertical feet of it!
> 
> Did you grow up around here?  i used to ski there when it was open.  Such great memories....what a looney place that was.
> 
> Haven't been to Bowman's tower in years but I don't remember that being to steep.



I grew up in Berks Co. but live in Bucks now. 

I might try Belle Mountain tomorrow depending on how much snow falls and what the roads look like. Can hop right over the bridge at Washington's Crossing. 

Wednesday, if the roads are open, its looking like either Jack Frost or Blue.


----------



## Not Sure (Mar 13, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> Is Belle Mountain steep enough? I was contemplating Bowman's Hill or Baldpate Mtn. I know you can't mountain bike around Bowman's Hill so I'm not sure how'd they'd take to skiing.



Hike in 2' ? Snowshoes might be necessary or invest in a split board and some skins . Who knows this might become an annual thing. I can't remember a back to back year with 2' storms .


----------



## St. Bear (Mar 13, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> I grew up in Berks Co. but live in Bucks now.
> 
> I might try Belle Mountain tomorrow depending on how much snow falls and what the roads look like. Can hop right over the bridge at Washington's Crossing.
> 
> Wednesday, if the roads are open, its looking like either Jack Frost or Blue.


I pulled the trigger on JFBB. $25 on Liftopia, only 9 left.

Anyone is welcome to DM me if they want some runs together. Or just say high. Line Sick Days, orange LL Bean jacket, white helmet. Call me Adam.


----------



## j law (Mar 13, 2017)

Thanks for the map porn to the usual posters here... I can't ski this week and am heading to Phoenix to play golf next week but I'm still checking this forum every 30 minutes to see how this thing is going to play out.

I'd love to see the stats for this website/app and how they spike when a storm is coming....


Sent from my iPhone usin


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 13, 2017)

Wow, spawn of Bastardi just released a, "Go Big Or Go Home" map, predicting a historic east coast event.  

Way more aggressive of a map than his old man put out.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 13, 2017)

This is good news for Bitcoin.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 13, 2017)

12z Euro snow map.....hot off the press.  

The amazing thing about this is it defaults to a 10 to 1 ratio, I could easily see these numbers needing to be 20% higher.







EDIT:  Wont post it, because it's almost "irresponsible" LOL, but I just got a look at the Kuchera map of the above, and it's predicting more of a 15 to 1 ratio, so basically take the numbers you see on that map above and multiply by 1.5 = XXX snowporn (actually, more like nasty Japanese XXX snowporn).


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 13, 2017)

Plattekill with the goods if this works out.


----------



## Jully (Mar 13, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Wow, spawn of Bastardi just released a, "Go Big Or Go Home" map, predicting a historic east coast event.
> 
> Way more aggressive of a map than his old man put out.



Now that makes you wonder, is it worth it to go into ME or northern NH, or will So. NH, VT, or the Berks work... decisions.


----------



## Tin (Mar 13, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Wow, spawn of Bastardi just released a, "Go Big Or Go Home" map, predicting a historic east coast event.
> 
> Way more aggressive of a map than his old man put out.



Given the latest EURO and all the others today there is plenty of liquid to verify that forecast in the 24+ area. GFS is still in lala land ONLY spitting out about 1.25" for most of ski country. At 13:1 (which is very conservative) that is 16"+.


----------



## St. Bear (Mar 13, 2017)

NWS ups their forecast for NJ/Poconos.


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## benski (Mar 13, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> Plattekill with the goods if this works out.



Said they will likely open Wednesday. What would they charge? I am thinking about it but I will likely have Classes.


----------



## andrec10 (Mar 13, 2017)

Hunter now has a Blizzard warning.....


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 13, 2017)

benski said:


> Said they will likely open Wednesday. What would they charge? I am thinking about it but I will likely have Classes.



If Platty gets 24+ inches then you pay whatever they ask.


----------



## 4aprice (Mar 13, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> #Pokesalwaysshafted



That's hilarious:lol::lol:  And really so true this particular season, and yet, if this storm happens as predicted they could be set up for one of their more spectacular finishes ever.  (everyone else too).  The one good thing about the Pocono's (besides being in the back yard where I can sneak up for weekday turns (maybe bumps with this)) is they have been good about making snow.  I skied at CBK last Thursday (the last warm one) and they still had decent base so they may be able to go for a while.  Wednesday or Thursday may be in the plans.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## dlague (Mar 13, 2017)

Nice thing about this storm - followed by at least a week and a half of cold days (in the 30's of less) and then it will not be blow torch (40's).


----------



## Tin (Mar 13, 2017)

Driving up to Magic like...


----------



## Not Sure (Mar 13, 2017)

Final call......Holy Shi.......18-24" Covers a massive area !Got to belive someone over 3' ....POCONOS ?????


----------



## j law (Mar 13, 2017)

Tin said:


> Driving up to Magic like...



Magic isn't open until Wednesday... so take your time, haha


Sent from my iPhone usin


----------



## Tin (Mar 13, 2017)

All 18z models going up with liquid again. Fuck rulers, get yard sticks. Poconos, Cats, Berks, SVT, for the win!


----------



## Puck it (Mar 13, 2017)

dlague said:


> Nice thing about this storm - followed by at least a week and a half of cold days (in the 30's of less) and then it will not be blow torch (40's).


like the blow torch in Colorado now.


----------



## Tin (Mar 13, 2017)

Puck it said:


> like the blow torch in Colorado now.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 13, 2017)

Puck it said:


> like the blow torch in Colorado now.



Oh how the tables have turned!


----------



## Tin (Mar 13, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> Oh how the tables have turned!



HAHAHAHHHAHAHAHA


----------



## Tin (Mar 13, 2017)

HEY DAVE!


----------



## JimG. (Mar 13, 2017)

lol you guys are harsh.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 13, 2017)

Tin said:


> HAHAHAHHHAHAHAHA



Is this what they show on the "History" Channel these days?

I keep wondering why we bother paying for cable anymore.


----------



## dlague (Mar 13, 2017)

dlague said:


> Nice thing about this storm - followed by at least a week and a half of cold days (in the 30's of less) and then it will not be blow torch (40's).





Puck it said:


> like the blow torch in Colorado now.





Tin said:


> HEY DAVE!



This is love!  I just mention how lucky you guys will be with a decent storm and followed by cold weather and somehow I must of hurt some ones feelings!  

It will be warm on the front range but not at elevation.  In the mountains it will get above freezing but nothing too scary.

Blow torch here? Ya if that is what this looks like from yesterday


----------



## MommaBear (Mar 13, 2017)

If you are heading North from below CT - there is a ban in place beginning 5AM Tuesday

http://www.wfsb.com/story/34762237/gov-travel-ban-to-begin-on-tuesday-morning


----------



## VTKilarney (Mar 13, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> I keep wondering why we bother paying for cable anymore.


I haven't paid for cable tv in years.  I don't miss it one bit.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 13, 2017)

I booked a room in Lake Placid for this weekend based on the net western trend of the 00z and 12z model suites.  Ballsy move on my part and I hope I'm right, but because of the combo of the NCAA ECAC hockey championships & this storm, there wasnt much lodging availability left as of this afternoon.  Now I wait and see whether I'll be skiing on ice (if it slides east) or 10" to 20" of powder if I'm right and this western trend is legit.  Fingers crossed.


----------



## NYDB (Mar 14, 2017)

^looks like you nailed it.  further inland track should have WF covered well


----------



## Glenn (Mar 14, 2017)

No cable here.  Local news is on via rabbit ears in the attic. 

NWS Albany is calling for just under two feet in SoVT.  Already excited for the weekend! 


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## fbrissette (Mar 14, 2017)

NY DirtBag said:


> ^looks like you nailed it.  further inland track should have WF covered well



Vermont now looks better than NY based on NWS probabilistic forecast.  3 feet is now realistic on the spine of the Greens.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 14, 2017)

The TREND IS REAL!!!!!!!!!!!

I have no idea what it means yet because it's still an evolving situation, but I know it's great news!


----------



## St. Bear (Mar 14, 2017)

Lots of sleet pinging off the windows here in NW NJ, which is not what was forecasted. Hopefully the Poconos are spared, but I'm doubtful.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 14, 2017)

This is going to be an Oprah snowstorm for ski country!!!!!!

YOU get 20", and YOU get 24", and YOU get 18", and YOU get 27", and YOU get 19".  

EV-RE-Bah-De gehts a snowstorm!


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 14, 2017)

All snow and 22 degrees in Lake Harmony. Pokes look fine. 

Some sleet mixing down in Bucks Co. but thats whatever. I don't need the snow down here, I need it up in the mountains.


----------



## dlague (Mar 14, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> All snow and 22 degrees in Lake Harmony. Pokes look fine.
> 
> Some sleet mixing down in Bucks Co. but thats whatever. I don't need the snow down here, I need it up in the mountains.


Ya but snow down there helps to drive traffic to the ski areas!  Visuals get people excited.

Sent from my SM-G930P using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 14, 2017)

Camelback is already reporting 14", which means nothing to me because they're the biggest liars of any ski resort I know, but it seems plausible given Blue Mountain is reporting 16", and there's LOTS more snow to come.  Nothing to worry about for Poconos.


----------



## gladerider (Mar 14, 2017)

a lot more snow? how much more? it's now sleet and freezing rain by me.


----------



## 4aprice (Mar 14, 2017)

gladerider said:


> a lot more snow? how much more? it's now sleet and freezing rain by me.



Should be all snow in Pocono's but a little mix wouldn't be a disaster.  Just means the storm is a little more north and west which is where you want it anyways.  Pocono's will be fine, as like I said, I was there just before the temperature drop and the base ( @ CBK) was still in decent shape.  The more north the better as NY/NE could really use it to get everything back into play for the spring.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## Not Sure (Mar 14, 2017)

4aprice said:


> Should be all snow in Pocono's but a little mix wouldn't be a disaster.  Just means the storm is a little more north and west which is where you want it anyways.  Pocono's will be fine, as like I said, I was there just before the temperature drop and the base ( @ CBK) was still in decent shape.  The more north the better as NY/NE could really use it to get everything back into play for the spring.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



A little sleet at Camelback ,not sure how much they got . A relative 10 miles from Lake Harmony reportred 23" JF must be close to jackpot. Southern Lehig co. got lots of sleet only about 10-12".


----------



## VTKilarney (Mar 14, 2017)

Eye on the Sky prediction.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 14, 2017)

About to wrap up down here. About 8-10 on the ground with some sleet mixed in. 

Poconos look like they may have gotten 2x that.


----------



## St. Bear (Mar 14, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> About to wrap up down here. About 8-10 on the ground with some sleet mixed in.
> 
> Poconos look like they may have gotten 2x that.



I saw a post that Mt Pocono is at 21 and still going strong.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 14, 2017)

Sounds like Yack Yost hit the Jackpot.

edit: uhhh.... guys: https://www.instagram.com/p/BRoDKJvhUCu/

edit2: apparently its a short stop sign. Still https://www.instagram.com/p/BRnuCoAhAZd/?taken-by=skijfbb

16 inches as of 3-4 hour ago and still coming down. I can see 20 inches being realistic out of this storm.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Mar 14, 2017)

Looks like a dreaded dry slot is working its way into the CT River Valley :angry:


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 14, 2017)

I'm looking at the webcam at Platty, and you can only see maybe the top 7" or so of the fence.  I'd say they must have a good 2' by now.


----------



## ss20 (Mar 14, 2017)

VT and NH getting shafted right now.  Maine is getting the goods.  The Catskills are STILL getting hammered.  Can someone dig-out Belleayre and tell me if it's still there for tomorrow?!


----------



## JimG. (Mar 14, 2017)

ss20 said:


> VT and NH getting shafted right now.  Maine is getting the goods.  The Catskills are STILL getting hammered.  Can someone dig-out Belleayre and tell me if it's still there for tomorrow?!



Debating between Belle and Platty tomorrow.

Will probably go to Belle only because I have the NYS 3 in 1 pass.

Will Platty be open this coming Friday?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 14, 2017)

JimG. said:


> Will Platty be open this coming Friday?



Why wouldnt they be?


----------



## JimG. (Mar 14, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Why wouldnt they be?



According to an email I got a few days ago they were going to Sat Sun only.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 14, 2017)

JimG. said:


> According to an email I got a few days ago they were going to Sat Sun only.



Weird.  I bet that's because of the snowmelt devastation, which is obviously off the table now.  They'll be 100% open tomorrow.  You really should go there instead of Bellayre; I think you'll regret it if you dont.


----------



## JimG. (Mar 14, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Weird.  I bet that's because of the snowmelt devastation, which is obviously off the table now.  They'll be 100% open tomorrow.  You really should go there instead of Bellayre; I think you'll regret it if you dont.



The snowmelt scenario makes sense, clearly off the table now.

Not sure I agree about where to go tomorrow; trees both inbounds at Belle and across the ridge at Highmount will be going off! I know those tree areas well but I don't know the best tree areas at Platty (one of these days I hope to convince a Platty regular to show me around). Plus no cash to ski tomorrow with the NYS 3 in 1 at Belle.

Having trouble deciding where the best powder will be on a Wednesday after the epic Feb meltdown seemed to ruin winter seems like a pretty good problem to have right now. Stoked!


----------



## Jully (Mar 14, 2017)

ss20 said:


> VT and NH getting shafted right now.  Maine is getting the goods.  The Catskills are STILL getting hammered.  Can someone dig-out Belleayre and tell me if it's still there for tomorrow?!



NH is getting shafted? It was coming down pretty hard in southern NH as of 6:30 and showed no signs of letting up.


----------



## snoseek (Mar 14, 2017)

It nuked all day at the cat and is nuking down in town...what is this shaft you speak of?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 14, 2017)

Whiteface just reported 22" at the base (not the summit, the base mind you) and it's going to snow for many more hours.

I think this weekend's going to be pretty great!


----------



## JimG. (Mar 14, 2017)

Hunter reporting 30"


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 14, 2017)

Whiteface just updated again, 33" and still snowing.   If the person taking the measurements is correct, they must be under absurdly intense banding to be putting down 5" per hour. 

 I dont think I've ever personally witnessed snowfall at that rate.  Last year when we got 36" in my backyard it topped out at 3" per hour, and that was nuts enough.


----------



## Tin (Mar 14, 2017)

Magic with a drifty 20". Amazing day to earn turns.

As a sacrifice to Ullr for more I belly flopped naked into a 4' drift tonight. You're all welcome.



Remember a couple days ago when "the AccuWeather met" said the models were all going east loooooooool


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 14, 2017)

Tin said:


> Remember a couple days ago when "the AccuWeather met" said the models were all going east loooooooool



AccuWeather will say whatever is necessary to make any weather event seem like it's impactful for the coast, which is not coincidentally where a majority of the population lives.


----------



## Tin (Mar 14, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> AccuWeather will say whatever is necessary to make any weather event seem like it's impactful for the coast, which is not coincidentally where a majority of the population lives.




Exact opposite. That came after the 12z euro went way SE of the benchmark and had little to no effect in ski country or the metro areas.

Interesting how well the NAM and Ukie did best with track and they were still not far enough west. GFS runs 4-5 days ago were close then it lost its marbles. Euro is just way way too amped this year.


----------



## benski (Mar 14, 2017)

About 3 feet in Binghamton and the lower levels are really dence. I spent 25 minutes clearing out my car before my friend told me know to Platte. The snow is also dry.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 15, 2017)

Tin said:


> Interesting how well the NAM and Ukie did best with track and they were still not far enough west.



No model did well with the track, in reality there was only versions of "less worse".



benski said:


> About 3 feet in Binghamton and the lower levels are really dence.



Amazing!  Reminds me of last year.  It just never stopped.


----------



## Cornhead (Mar 15, 2017)

benski said:


> About 3 feet in Binghamton and the lower levels are really dence.


Must've been compressed by the weight of the snow above, I could've shoveled the 8" off my driveway with a leaf blower at 6 AM. The antithesis of heart attack snow. Even the snow plowed into the end from the plows plowing the street was easy, it's usually a back breaker.



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## Tin (Mar 15, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> No model did well with the track, in reality there was only versions of "less worse".



Within 36 hours both the NAM,Ukie, and RGEM had the west trend and tainted NYC, CT, and the 95. Both were very close to the actual low track. What no model got was the pivot of banding that crushed to Binghamton into the Dacks and the midlevel warmth that plagued Boston and 95 area so it was a sleet fest instead of snow.


----------



## VTKilarney (Mar 15, 2017)

We didn't get hit that hard here in northeastern Vermont.  My driveway had at most a foot.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Mar 15, 2017)

VTKilarney said:


> We didn't get hit that hard here in northeastern Vermont.  My driveway had at most a foot.


We suffered dry slotting which cut down the total quite a bit.

However it is still snowing at Burke. 


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----------



## VTKilarney (Mar 15, 2017)

Burke reported 18 inches from the storm.


----------



## Kleetus (Mar 15, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Whiteface just updated again, 33" and still snowing.   If the person taking the measurements is correct, they must be under absurdly intense banding to be putting down 5" per hour.
> 
> I dont think I've ever personally witnessed snowfall at that rate.  Last year when we got 36" in my backyard it topped out at 3" per hour, and that was nuts enough.



Saying they got 40" now. I believe it. My family's place in the ADK's got 33". 12" of which occurred in around an hour of a half. Gore said they got over 2 feet but need to remeasure for the exact total.  


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## Glenn (Mar 15, 2017)

Stratton and Mt Snow are saying about 20" from the storm.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 15, 2017)

So how is this weekend looking? I'm thinking of getting a room and doing Belleayre then Platty on Sunday.


----------



## bdfreetuna (Mar 15, 2017)

Jay @ 40"

Bolton / Stowe 30"

Gore 24"

Not a bad haul!


----------



## VTKilarney (Mar 15, 2017)

bdfreetuna said:


> Jay @ 40"
> 
> Bolton / Stowe 30"
> 
> ...


And when do you leave for California?  LOL


----------



## bdfreetuna (Mar 15, 2017)

I'm in Chicago on my way back from Cali... flight got cancelled due to the storm, will be flying home tomorrow.

Have some work commitments Thurs/Fri/Sat so first chance I'll have to ski the Stella Snow will be Sunday.

Then weekend after that I head to Colorado for work stuff + Telluride. Hope it stays cold out east and this snow sticks around.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 15, 2017)

Kleetus said:


> *Saying they got 40" now. I believe it.* My family's place in the ADK's got 33". 12" of which occurred in around an hour of a half. Gore said they got over 2 feet but need to remeasure for the exact total.



The thing I'm not understanding is, where did they measure?  

From their posts it sounds like that 40" must be at the base, because they werent able to make it to the summit.  If you look at their website, even Little Whiteface is closed.  So if that's right and nobody has been able to get to the top, you'd have to imagine it must be more like 50" or more up there.  Whatever it is, I'm sure glad I booked my lodging when I did and I cant wait for the weekend.


----------



## tnt1234 (Mar 15, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> So how is this weekend looking? I'm thinking of getting a room and doing Belleayre then Platty on Sunday.



Best I could swing was one day - got a room for Friday night and skiing Platty with my kids on Saturday.  Really looking forward to it.  Seems likely it's the season ender for us, so nice to go out with soft snow on the ground.


----------



## NYDB (Mar 15, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Best I could swing was one day - got a room for Friday night and skiing Platty with my kids on Saturday.  Really looking forward to it.  Seems likely it's the season ender for us, so nice to go out with soft snow on the ground.



Season Ender?  Pshaw.  Forecast looks great 10 days out temp wise with a few possible systems rolling through.


----------



## tnt1234 (Mar 15, 2017)

JimG. said:


> The snowmelt scenario makes sense, clearly off the table now.
> 
> Not sure I agree about where to go tomorrow; trees both inbounds at Belle and across the ridge at Highmount will be going off! I know those tree areas well but I don't know the best tree areas at Platty (one of these days I hope to convince a Platty regular to show me around). Plus no cash to ski tomorrow with the NYS 3 in 1 at Belle.
> 
> Having trouble deciding where the best powder will be on a Wednesday after the epic Feb meltdown seemed to ruin winter seems like a pretty good problem to have right now. Stoked!



Yeah, dream catcher glade alone is a compelling reason to go to Bell.  Great glade.  

But oddly, today they are listing glades closed...seems impossible.

So how do you ski high mount?  Hike over from tomahawk, then hike out to access road at the bottom of high mount?

Other thing I'm interested in trying at Belle is the Cathedral Glen trail to the X-C trails at the base...sounds like a fun excursion.


----------



## tnt1234 (Mar 15, 2017)

NY DirtBag said:


> Season Ender?  Pshaw.  Forecast looks great 10 days out temp wise with a few possible systems rolling through.



Yeah, more about family and work schedules....but we'll see I suppose....


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 15, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Yeah, dream catcher glade alone is a compelling reason to go to Bell.  Great glade.
> 
> But oddly, today they are listing glades closed...seems impossible.
> 
> ...



Cathedral Brook is a lot of fun when conditions are on. It requires a deal of skating down the ridge to get to though. But for that reason it gets very little traffic.


----------



## tnt1234 (Mar 15, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> Cathedral Brook is a lot of fun when conditions are on. It requires a deal of skating down the ridge to get to though. But for that reason it gets very little traffic.



Love that trail.

But there is a hiking trail beyond it called cathedral glen that evidently can be skied if it's deep enough.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 15, 2017)

And Tomahawk Liftline, if there's enough snow, is one of the gnarliest runs in the Catskills. I think they call it "Liftline Glade" or something now. 

Even though Belle doesn't have sustained pitch, its got some pretty fun terrain.


----------



## St. Bear (Mar 15, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> The thing I'm not understanding is, where did they measure?
> 
> From their posts it sounds like that 40" must be at the base, because they werent able to make it to the summit.  If you look at their website, even Little Whiteface is closed.  So if that's right and nobody has been able to get to the top, you'd have to imagine it must be more like 50" or more up there.  Whatever it is, I'm sure glad I booked my lodging when I did and I cant wait for the weekend.


People skin up the Toll Rd to the summit all the time.


----------



## j law (Mar 15, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> The you'd have to imagine it must be more like 50" or more up there.
> Whatever it is, I'm sure glad I booked my lodging when I did and I cant wait for the weekend.



Enjoy!!! I can't enjoy this storm but appreciate all the maps over the past couple years that have helped hit amazing powder days at Magic, Gore, and Jay.  

For you tree skiers out there, be careful as there wasn't much coverage before the storm!


Sent from my iPhone usin


----------



## JimG. (Mar 15, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> So how do you ski high mount?  Hike over from tomahawk, then hike out to access road at the bottom of high mount?



Basically; it helps to spot a car if you can.


----------



## JimG. (Mar 15, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> And Tomahawk Liftline, if there's enough snow, is one of the gnarliest runs in the Catskills. I think they call it "Liftline Glade" or something now.
> 
> Even though Belle doesn't have sustained pitch, its got some pretty fun terrain.



Skiable from the cliff at the top today; deep early on in the day and fun to ski fast.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 16, 2017)

If you're a weekend warrior, better get after all this snow this weekend, because next weekend is in danger.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 16, 2017)

3-6 inch refresher for the Catskills coming this weekend.


----------



## Abubob (Mar 16, 2017)

Okay here.

Say it ain't so!


----------



## Puck it (Mar 16, 2017)

Abubob said:


> Okay here.
> 
> Say it ain't so!
> 
> View attachment 22168


Why are you doing this?


----------



## Abubob (Mar 16, 2017)

Puck it said:


> Why are you doing this?


I'm sorry.


----------



## mriceyman (Mar 16, 2017)

Abubob said:


> Okay here.
> 
> Say it ain't so!
> 
> View attachment 22168



Day 9 model run??  Cmon man


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## Abubob (Mar 16, 2017)

mriceyman said:


> Day 9 model run??  Cmon man


BenedictGomez made me look. It's ALL HIS FAULT!! 

It'll all be snow by the time it really get's here. Right?


----------



## wtcobb (Mar 16, 2017)

Abubob said:


> It'll all be snow by the time it really get's here. Right?



Tell Ohio to put some ice on their lawns to cool the air down as it passes over. No problem.


----------



## Abubob (Mar 16, 2017)

wtcobb said:


> Tell Ohio to put some ice on their lawns to cool the air down as it passes over. No problem.


I know people in Ohio. I'll see what I can do.


----------



## jrmagic (Mar 17, 2017)

Tin said:


> Magic with a drifty 20". Amazing day to earn turns.
> 
> As a sacrifice to Ullr for more I belly flopped naked into a 4' drift tonight. You're all welcome.
> 
> ...


Oh damn. I hope there isn't an impression of that behind my condo lol


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 17, 2017)

Weekend storm looks like the Catskills could pick up 6 more inches. Poconos with potentially 6-10 more.

Go get it while the gettin's good!


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## andrec10 (Mar 17, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> Weekend storm looks like the Catskills could pick up 6 more inches. Poconos with potentially 6-10 more.
> 
> Go get it while the gettin's good!



Works for me!


----------



## Not Sure (Mar 17, 2017)

Rowsdower said:


> Weekend storm looks like the Catskills could pick up 6 more inches. Poconos with potentially 6-10 more.
> 
> Go get it while the gettin's good!



East penn guys are not thinking much . Where are you seeing 6-10? .....All for it!


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 17, 2017)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> East penn guys are not thinking much . Where are you seeing 6-10? .....All for it!



Latest GFS run. 10:1 total accumulation from the system moving through Sat/Sun.


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## Glenn (Mar 20, 2017)

Saturday night Sunday could be one to watch.  


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## Bostonian (Mar 20, 2017)

Sunday is looking good for 8-12 inches coming from Weather Underground for Mass, Mid/Southern NH, and Mid/Southern VT.  A little early to tell.


----------



## NYDB (Mar 20, 2017)

Glenn said:


> Saturday night Sunday could be one to watch.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



just hope the rain doesn't do too much damage first


----------



## Abubob (Mar 20, 2017)

*Why you should never get nervous about long range forecasts*



Abubob said:


> Okay here.
> 
> Say it ain't so!
> 
> View attachment 22168



Thursday's model run compared to Monday morning's model run.


----------



## bigbog (Mar 20, 2017)

Abubob said:


> BenedictGomez made me look. It's ALL HIS FAULT!!
> 
> It'll all be snow by the time it really get's here. Right?



Gotta do what works for you.  Passed by a couple parked cars that had to be scanning the Kangamagus Pass couloirs on Sunday....they looked pretty healthy, but to get up to them would have to be quite the hike.  A beautiful weekend....although too warm...too early.  C'mon Ullr, surprise us!


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## Glenn (Mar 22, 2017)

Still can't get a good read on the weekend. NWS Albany isn't saying much about snow at this point.


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## dlague (Mar 22, 2017)

Glenn said:


> Still can't get a good read on the weekend. NWS Albany isn't saying much about snow at this point.



Looks to be minimal snow accumulation.  In fact it looks to be a mixed bag at lower levels and temps will be marginal during the day and cold at night.  Overall minimal impact and not a whole lot of precip.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 22, 2017)

12z GFS for next week keeps trending colder.  Not out of woods yet, but this could be good news.


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## Glenn (Mar 22, 2017)

dlague said:


> Looks to be minimal snow accumulation.  In fact it looks to be a mixed bag at lower levels and temps will be marginal during the day and cold at night.  Overall minimal impact and not a whole lot of precip.





As long is it doesn't r___.


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## dlague (Mar 22, 2017)

Glenn said:


> As long is it doesn't r___.



Actually you are heading into an interesting stretch where temps will be cold at night (good for snow preservation) and 5-10 degrees above freezing during the day (not blow torch).  It also looks to be cloudy without precip which protects the snow from the sun.  Things will probably be firm in the morning if there is any thawing but should loosen up in the afternoon.


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## Glenn (Mar 23, 2017)

NWS is calling for semi frozen precip. Just hoping to dodge the rain drops and get some turns in.


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## hammer (Mar 23, 2017)

I'm also hoping to dodge rain drops.  Have passes to burn, going to Ragged on Saturday for last trip of my season. :sad:


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## snoseek (Mar 23, 2017)

Maine is looking to be doing well in the coming days. Wish Saddleback was an option right now!


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## MommaBear (Mar 24, 2017)

hammer said:


> I'm also hoping to dodge rain drops.  Have passes to burn..... :sad:



Same here.  So many tickets, so little days


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## Glenn (Mar 24, 2017)

Allegedly, a little snow in the Southern Greens today. Tomorrow could be tough. Sunday and Monday look like sleet.


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## fbrissette (Mar 24, 2017)

Glenn said:


> Allegedly, a little snow in the Southern Greens today. Tomorrow could be tough. Sunday and Monday look like sleet.



You're more optimistic than i am.  Monday to Wednesday could be hellish. Warm and very wet.


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## Glenn (Mar 24, 2017)

Yeah, now NWS out of Albany is calling for a mix Saturday and Sunday...with rain on Monday. I've been checking the forecast for Stratton specifically.


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## Abubob (Mar 24, 2017)

4" so far in Plymouth, NH right now. Not bad considering yesterday NWS was predicting less than an inch.


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## andrec10 (Mar 24, 2017)

Hunter not looking good this weekend. Can't complain, I have 43 days in!


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## 180 (Mar 24, 2017)

Snow and sleet most of the day at Killington, nice powder still on north facing aspects....today


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## Savemeasammy (Mar 24, 2017)

180 said:


> Snow and sleet most of the day at Killington, nice powder still on north facing aspects....today



My spring pass is in hand.  Bring on the corn harvest. 


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## Glenn (Mar 26, 2017)

Not so bad for the weekend; snow yesterday and a. It of rain later in the afternoon today.  Tomorrow isn't looking so good.  


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## chuckstah (Mar 26, 2017)

3-5 inches of sleet?  Sounds a lot better than the liquid stuff.  The few times that I've skied sleet, It's been great.  Very floaty.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.0359&lon=-71.6215#.WNh2zoErJdg


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## Glenn (Mar 27, 2017)

Rain in SoVT now. Temp just above freezing. Think it's about the same in the Southern Greens. This would have been a nice storm had it trended cooler.


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## dlague (Mar 27, 2017)

Looks like a nice 40's trend in April then switching to 50's for the Northeast!


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## snoseek (Mar 27, 2017)

Give me some corn snow and melt this shit down at the coast please!


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 27, 2017)

Saturday might be decent in n.VT, been looking at this for a few days now and it's trending better.


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## Glenn (Mar 28, 2017)

This could be interesting. NWS has the potential for some decent QPF numbers...but aren't sure on temps at this point.


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## mriceyman (Mar 28, 2017)

Hug the cmc and all of vt stays snow 


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## cdskier (Mar 28, 2017)

mriceyman said:


> Hug the cmc and all of vt stays snow



The timing of the CMC looks a bit more optimal as well for driving up to VT Friday evening. GFS shows precip starting much earlier in the day.


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## snoseek (Mar 28, 2017)

I just informed my workplace I in fact WON'T be in on Sunday but rather at wildcat. Im sure they'll get over it....


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## MommaBear (Mar 28, 2017)

Glenn said:


> This could be interesting. NWS has the potential for some decent QPF numbers...but aren't sure on temps at this point.



Saw Wunderground with 8 to 12 for Mount Snow on Friday earlier this morning - THAT caught my attention...lol!


----------



## Glenn (Mar 28, 2017)

I saw similar numbers! I just get nervous when it looks good, this far out.


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## catsup948 (Mar 28, 2017)

Friday night could happen.  I hope it's a bit more north than currently modeled.  Nice 4-8" at Jay would make me happy. 


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 28, 2017)

Glenn said:


> I saw similar numbers! I just get nervous when it looks good, this far out.



That's very dicey for several reasons.  It's jackpotting because you're dancing on the r/s line, which is always risky.  Also, there's some "non-snow" precipitation in there that's being falsely counted as snow by the model.   I'd rather be farther north for this event, and I'm calling the surprise powder day now, say 6" or better from MRG all the way to JP.  The trend has been good for several days now, in orientation and in it printing colder.  With any luck perhaps all of VT will be a winner with a few more model runs.  

Jay Peak for me on Friday, then for my final east coast 2016/17 powder day, I think I'll head to Smuggler's Notch on Saturday where you'll find me lapping Doc's to Bermuda until my legs fall off.


----------



## MommaBear (Mar 28, 2017)

Glenn said:


> I saw similar numbers! I just get nervous when it looks good, this far out.



Agreed.  But it catches my attention so I can start shifting work around to free me up.


----------



## VTKilarney (Mar 28, 2017)

I have driven all over Vermont these law two days, and the snow is melting fast.  Southern Vermont natural snow trails look to be done.  I saw Magic from fairly close up and this was definitely true there.


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## Glenn (Mar 29, 2017)

Seems that most sites are calling for quite a bit in the graphical forecast. Reading the NWS Forecast discussion out of Albany: 4" or less for valley areas, 6"+ for the mountains with the caveat: "low confidence at this time."

So another wait and see storm. But still, a few inches of snow wouldn't hurt things! Based on what fell last Saturday, it'll probably be a heavier, sticker snow.


----------



## slatham (Mar 29, 2017)

This weekend will be 10"+ of dense wet snow at elevation north of I90 and will put most natural terrain back in action.

Euro showing two storms next week with potential too.

Fat lady is napping.......


----------



## skimagic (Mar 29, 2017)

Latest on AccuWeather predicts a foot at Killington, but significant ice at Stratton.   I'll need studded tires to get to K.


----------



## Tin (Mar 29, 2017)

slatham said:


> This weekend will be 10"+ of dense wet snow at elevation north of I90 and will put most natural terrain back in action.
> 
> Euro showing two storms next week with potential too.
> 
> Fat lady is napping.......



You just cursed it.


----------



## Puck it (Mar 29, 2017)

Tin said:


> You just cursed it.


These people don't get the one rule!!!!


----------



## from_the_NEK (Mar 29, 2017)

Mehhh. It is going to be mostly rain everywhere.


----------



## Glenn (Mar 29, 2017)

NWS Albany hasn't changed much since this AM. We'll see what the afternoon/evening model runs say. 

I wonder if their views on the forecast discussion go up significantly during the winter months? I can't recall clicking on that but a handful of times between May and September.


----------



## Jully (Mar 29, 2017)

Glenn said:


> NWS Albany hasn't changed much since this AM. We'll see what the afternoon/evening model runs say.
> 
> I wonder if their views on the forecast discussion go up significantly during the winter months? I can't recall clicking on that but a handful of times between May and September.



Well for skiers, absolutely. There are plenty of other summer activities that would draw just as much interest. Camping, hiking, anything on the ocean.


----------



## 4aprice (Mar 29, 2017)

Holy crap.  Just saw the Weather Channel predictions for this weekend.  Biggest question is Stratton, Okemo or Killington (is Pico still open?)?  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong. NJ


----------



## medfordmike (Mar 29, 2017)

4aprice said:


> Holy crap.  Just saw the Weather Channel predictions for this weekend.  Biggest question is Stratton, Okemo or Killington (is Pico still open?)?
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong. NJ



Yes Pico is open but they are down mostly but not exclusively to the trails with snowmaking.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 30, 2017)

4aprice said:


> Holy crap.  Just saw the Weather Channel predictions for this weekend.  Biggest question is Stratton, Okemo or Killington (is Pico still open?)?



Yup, this has been trending nicely like I thought it would.   The good thing is given it's end of season there's no pressure for you to book, you can wait for more model runs.  IMO, even though the southern VT mountains are depicted as jackpotting, they're still at risk.  I'm headed to n.VT, which will probably do almost as well, but will have superior conditions and terrain.


----------



## Glenn (Mar 30, 2017)

Looks like SoVT is under a Winter Storm Watch. The Albany forecast discussion hints to those changing to a warning if needed. They're still saying 4" in the Valley areas and 7" of snow in higher terrain. And sounds like it'll be a heavy, wet snow. I'm not complaining! I'll take any snow this time of the year.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 30, 2017)

Glenn said:


> They're still saying 4" in the Valley areas and* 7" of snow in higher terrain.*



I'll take the over.


----------



## Glenn (Mar 30, 2017)

NWS seems really conservative compared to other forecasts on this one. Guess we'll have to see what the noon/afternoon update says. Should have a good idea of the track and temp since it's less than 24 hours out.


----------



## cdskier (Mar 30, 2017)

I'll take the over as well. Josh Fox in his blog as of yesterday was still saying higher elevations in the MRV area could see 8-12. Lower elevations though are where NWS may be right and numbers should be more conservative.

Either way, this storm could cause some travel disruptions on Friday for people trying to get up in the afternoon/evening. I'm not crazy about driving 5 hours late tonight after work by myself, but I think it may be a better option than worrying about getting up there tomorrow. I'll just work remotely from the lodge in the morning and then can always ski in the afternoon.


----------



## snoseek (Mar 30, 2017)

Go high for the good stuff


----------



## bdfreetuna (Mar 30, 2017)

FYI latest NAM shows this hitting northern VT + NH + NY over southern VT (like it was previously seeming)

Foot and a half potential for a lot of places up there.


----------



## kingslug (Mar 30, 2017)

Think a Saturday early morning drive to Stowe is the ticket.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 30, 2017)

cdskier said:


> Either way, *this storm could cause some travel disruptions on Friday for people trying to get up in the afternoon/evening. I'm not crazy about driving 5 hours late tonight* after work by myself, but I think it may be a better option than worrying about getting up there tomorrow.



I've been watching this system for a week now and on Monday told my gf to take Friday off as she needs to give at least 4 days notice.  I'm leaving for n.VT at 4:30pm today, and skiing Jay Peak tomorrow as it's far enough north to avoid any wind problems that may affect other places, then retreating a bit farther south and hitting what hopefully should be a snow day at Smuggs.  This is the plan, just need it to all come together.


----------



## cdskier (Mar 30, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> I've been watching this system for a week now and on Monday told my gf to take Friday off as she needs to give at least 4 days notice.  I'm leaving for n.VT at 4:30pm today, and skiing Jay Peak tomorrow as it's far enough north to avoid any wind problems that may affect other places, then retreating a bit farther south and hitting what hopefully should be a snow day at Smuggs.  This is the plan, just need it to all come together.



I need to give a few days notice too and didn't realize the impact early enough. That's why my plan is to work remotely Friday morning from the lodge at Sugarbush after driving up tonight lol. I want to leave around 5pm tonight.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 30, 2017)

cdskier said:


> I need to give a few days notice too and didn't realize the impact early enough. That's why my plan is to work remotely Friday morning from the lodge at Sugarbush after driving up tonight lol. I want to leave around 5pm tonight.



The good news is this will catch people by surprise, and many will not choose to drive in this after ~1pm Friday, which will hopefully lead to fewer people on the slopes Saturday.


----------



## cdskier (Mar 30, 2017)

Yup, I'm counting on that happening as well. Combine that with the fact that we'll be into April where numbers drop off anyway and it could be a great weekend with limited crowds.


----------



## tumbler (Mar 30, 2017)

I think the roads will be more wet for most of Friday up to central Vt.  Heavy stuff not forecasted to come unit overnight Friday.  I'm going to leave a bit earleir than ususal Friday.  Crowds should be lighter as spring sports and obligations are in full force but I dont think it will be empty.


----------



## MommaBear (Mar 30, 2017)

Headed home from Southern VT this morning and saw a number of vehicles on the back roads (RT2/112 from Greenfield) headed north with skis.  Thinking they were getting a jump on the snow.  I will be one of those driving back up Friday night to northern VT (I'm self employed, but the other half can't leave early due to someone else being on vacation).  Good to hear the roads may not be as bad as I was expecting.


----------



## Jully (Mar 30, 2017)

bdfreetuna said:


> FYI latest NAM shows this hitting northern VT + NH + NY over southern VT (like it was previously seeming)
> 
> Foot and a half potential for a lot of places up there.



Gotta watch this closely. Was thinking of doing So. NH (Ragged or Crotch), but I might now be looking farther north for fewer crowds and higher elevation.


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## Glenn (Mar 30, 2017)

Big gap between most likely and potential: http://www.weather.gov/aly/winter 

Edit: The above is only through 4/1 8PM. Doesn't count the overnight. 

Should see an update later this afternoon...regarding if they keep this a watch or upgrade to a warning.


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## cdskier (Mar 30, 2017)

NWS Burlington has upped the Advisory to a Warning for the MRV area. Now they are calling for 5-10 in the warned area...higher elevations could do better as well just with the snow being less dense.


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## tumbler (Mar 30, 2017)

Density is the wild card.  Too much and it is not much fun to ski.  Let other people push it around then get it.


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## Glenn (Mar 30, 2017)

Upgraded to a Warning now for SoVT and the Southern Greens.


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## kingslug (Mar 30, 2017)

Guess we'll know when we get there. Bet it won't be bad.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 30, 2017)

Euro drops the hammer.  This is just the op run, havent seen ens.


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## fbrissette (Mar 30, 2017)

Beautiful !


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## Glenn (Mar 30, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Euro drops the hammer.  This is just the op run, havent seen ens.



That's glorious!  


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## cdskier (Mar 30, 2017)

Wow. That puts the mrv right in the jackpot zone. Would love for that to pan out. I'm up here now so let it dump!


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 30, 2017)

cdskier said:


> Wow. That puts the mrv right in the jackpot zone. Would love for that to pan out. I'm up here now so let it dump!



MRG should do fine IMO, south of there I'm still worried about potential rain & mixing.


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## prsboogie (Mar 30, 2017)

MommaBear said:


> Headed home from Southern VT this morning and saw a number of vehicles on the back roads (RT2/112 from Greenfield) headed north with skis.  Thinking they were getting a jump on the snow.  I will be one of those driving back up Friday night to northern VT (I'm self employed, but the other half can't leave early due to someone else being on vacation).  Good to hear the roads may not be as bad as I was expecting.



Where are you skiing MB? We are headed up to Snow for the weekend tomorrow. 


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## MommaBear (Mar 31, 2017)

prsboogie said:


> Where are you skiing MB? We are headed up to Snow for the weekend tomorrow.



Headed to Sugarbush and Bolton Valley to use up some club tickets.  Our place at Snow is rented this weekend.


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## kingslug (Mar 31, 2017)

Wonder if the reports are right. Killington up to 18 inches? Stow 6 to 12.


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## Glenn (Mar 31, 2017)

Already started snowing in SoVT. Checked the webcams at the VT place. Sticking to the ground which is mostly snow covered. Not sticking to the road just yet. Which is interesting because it's a dirt road. 

We shall see how the ride up this evening is! Looks like the rain/snow line is a bit South of the VT/Mass border. If history is correct from past storms like this, it's usually a wet ride through Greenfield or so. Then things get a little interesting from Bernardston up. Those traffic cams should come in handy later today.


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## cdskier (Mar 31, 2017)

Starting to lightly snow here at Sugarbush


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## jrmagic (Mar 31, 2017)

Glenn said:


> Already started snowing in SoVT. Checked the webcams at the VT place. Sticking to the ground which is mostly snow covered. Not sticking to the road just yet. Which is interesting because it's a dirt road.
> 
> We shall see how the ride up this evening is! Looks like the rain/snow line is a bit South of the VT/Mass border. If history is correct from past storms like this, it's usually a wet ride through Greenfield or so. Then things get a little interesting from Bernardston up. Those traffic cams should come in handy later today.


I think thats probably about right. Im heading up 22 in NY. Im thinking I will bo ok until the Bennington Area and if I get real lucky until Manchester. 

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## Glenn (Mar 31, 2017)

Cams for checking things. 

The VT Trans cam by the welcome center is out of commission. So I use the cams by the Bratt bridge between exit 2 and 3: http://asti-traffic.com/tcm/default.aspx?id=87c3375a-2eab-4944-9a20-038b650cd234

Mass's Greenfield cam is down, but the Bernardston one is chugging along: http://www.massdot.state.ma.us/highway/TrafficTravelResources/TrafficInformationMap.aspx

VT Trans has a cool plow tracking page: http://plowtrucks.vtrans.vermont.gov/


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## cdskier (Mar 31, 2017)

Glenn said:


> Trans has a cool plow tracking page: http://plowtrucks.vtrans.vermont.gov/



That is way too cool...Awesome idea.


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## prsboogie (Mar 31, 2017)

Up at Snow now and 100 was interesting off 9! Definitely not horrible but the corners were slick. About 4-5 on the ground. Not powder, more frozen granular. 


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 31, 2017)

Conditions at JP today were not good. They could definitely use some snow.  Snowing pretty hard right now in Saint Albans, hope it keeps up.


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## Los (Mar 31, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Conditions at JP today were not good. They could definitely use some snow.



We went night skiing at Bolton valley last night. Same thing there.


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## Glenn (Mar 31, 2017)

prsboogie said:


> Up at Snow now and 100 was interesting off 9! Definitely not horrible but the corners were slick. About 4-5 on the ground. Not powder, more frozen granular.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



About the same just north of Brattleboro. Interesting mix of what's on the ground. Supposed to get heavier overnight. Here's too deeper snow in the am! 

Ride up wasn't bad. It didn't start sticking to 91 until the northern part of Bernardston. Rt 30 wasn't too bad. But a big difference from Rt 30 to our place. Elevation dependent storm.


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## MommaBear (Mar 31, 2017)

We are at the base of Sugarbush access road.  Couple of inches on the ground.  Hoping more accumulates overnight!


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## cdskier (Mar 31, 2017)

MommaBear said:


> We are at the base of Sugarbush access road.  Couple of inches on the ground.  Hoping more accumulates overnight!



There's definitely already more than that at the top of the access road. Looks like currently in the 4-6 range in my condo parking lot. Snow stake webcam shows around 9 and that doesn't include the 3 inches that had fallen by the end of the day when they cleared it.


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## Glenn (Apr 1, 2017)

Looks to be about 7-8" of snow sleet mix at the VT place.  The Mt Snow report says 6-8" of snow.  I'm a bit surprised, our place is at about 800', I thought this storm would deliver more at elevation.  

No update from Stratton yet.  Their email report this am and website are still showing info from 3:30 yesterday.


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## kingslug (Apr 3, 2017)

Reports say VT might get up to 2 feet by Saturday???


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## dlague (Apr 3, 2017)

kingslug said:


> Reports say VT might get up to 2 feet by Saturday???



What are you seeing?  It appears that weather reports are calling for liquid precip through this week with the exception of tonight possibly where northern areas and higher elevations might get snow.   Being optimistic, Bretton Woods, Wildcat and the higher summits of the White Mountains could see anywhere from 9-12 inches. Interior ME, such as Sunday River and Sugarloaf, could see 12-15 inches followed with some upslope rains on Wednesday.

Fridays system is borderline right now but looks more wet than fluffy!


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## fbrissette (Apr 3, 2017)

I only see misery and despair.  Whatever little snow we might see will be lost in the the upcoming great flood.   I predict a lot of flood warnings in the upcoming days.   Not good.   Last week-end at Jay was nothing short of fantastic.


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## Jully (Apr 3, 2017)

dlague said:


> What are you seeing?  It appears that weather reports are calling for liquid precip through this week with the exception of tonight possibly where northern areas and higher elevations might get snow.   Being optimistic, Bretton Woods, Wildcat and the higher summits of the White Mountains could see anywhere from 9-12 inches. Interior ME, such as Sunday River and Sugarloaf, could see 12-15 inches followed with some upslope rains on Wednesday.
> 
> Fridays system is borderline right now but looks more wet than fluffy!



SL might get by and set up for a great Reggae Fest.


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## Glenn (Apr 3, 2017)

At this point, we can only hope for mixed precip at elevation. Anything to stop the potential melt-off. 

NWS Albany has issued a Food Watch for SoVT. BLAH!


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## ScottySkis (Apr 3, 2017)

Good to hear Sniw is still coming!

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## Bostonian (Apr 4, 2017)

Looking at the radar right now it's snowing at Wildcat still.  But all of VT is rain.  Keeping my hopes up though. 


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## kingslug (Apr 4, 2017)

I look at several reports, most end up wrong. The last one was for high elevations, which looks like it may pan out later in the week, just not today.


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## dlague (Apr 4, 2017)

This does not look like a 6-12 deal for Northern areas.

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## wtcobb (Apr 4, 2017)

Glenn said:


> NWS Albany has issued a Food Watch for SoVT. BLAH!



Yum!

Saw video of heavy snow in Madison this morning. Rain in Franconia has tapered off and the sun is poking through now. Cannon on hold from the wind.


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## ALLSKIING (Apr 4, 2017)

Wind and a heavy mist at Killington

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## kingslug (Apr 4, 2017)

joy


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## Glenn (Apr 4, 2017)

Round two heading east now. A few white spots on the radar around Manchester VT. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic.


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## kingslug (Apr 4, 2017)

Do a snow dance


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## cdskier (Apr 4, 2017)

Glenn said:


> Round two heading east now. A few white spots on the radar around Manchester VT. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic.



There appears to be a coating of some form of frozen precip at least at the upper elevations of Sugarbush from what I can see on their webcams. Their snow report says temps are expected to rise though so that may change.


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## kingslug (Apr 5, 2017)

Spring ..has sprung


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## snoseek (Apr 5, 2017)

8 inches in the last 24 at the cat says the report. It should be OK today.


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## Glenn (Apr 5, 2017)

Looks like the SoVT resorts managed an inch of frozen something overnight. Hard to tell how things look this AM. Pretty foggy as of now on the cams.


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## skifree (Apr 5, 2017)

Le Massif looks like the spot.


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## fbrissette (Apr 5, 2017)

They've had wet snow instead of rain, but I don't think they'll avoid the Thursday to Friday onslaught.


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## WWF-VT (Apr 5, 2017)

We got two inches of slush last night at Sugarbush and it's 40+ degrees with fog today


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## bdfreetuna (Apr 6, 2017)

Keeping an eye on potentially decent snowfall for higher elevations on the back end of this rainmaker. Could go either way.


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## Glenn (Apr 6, 2017)

The radar is showing frozen precip in the Southern Greens. Hard to tell from the webcams though. Frozen/semi frozen is better than plain rain.


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## kingslug (Apr 6, 2017)

I'm staying home and snoozing.


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## kingslug (Apr 7, 2017)

Damn..Killington says they are now an iceberg. Snow on the way but probably dust on crust.


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## Glenn (Apr 7, 2017)

Maybe some light frozen precip for the Southern Greens later today. Not sure how much damage was done overnight with the rain. I do know that there was a little snow in SoVT last night; saw it on the webcams at the weekend house. Nothing stuck...but it was better than rain.


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## 4aprice (Apr 7, 2017)

kingslug said:


> Damn..Killington says they are now an iceberg. Snow on the way but probably dust on crust.



It's spring.  I'm taking it easy and going up to Vermont tomorrow morning with the idea of not hitting the slopes till noon, then skiing early Sunday till it becomes too soft and heading home.  Hoping for soft snow, moguls and sunshine to close out the my eastern season.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## bdfreetuna (Apr 7, 2017)

I'm going to Killington early in the morning with the expectation of skiing frozen but fresh groomed terrain (they are grooming the whole mountain)... a good morning for speed!

Then Jay Sunday and I hope they have over a foot of fresh snow on a nice sunny day by then. Hope it's not crowded want to take some tram rides up and ski the ridge.


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## 4aprice (Apr 7, 2017)

bdfreetuna said:


> I'm going to Killington early in the morning with the expectation of skiing frozen but fresh groomed terrain (they are grooming the whole mountain)... a good morning for speed!
> 
> Then Jay Sunday and I hope they have over a foot of fresh snow on a nice sunny day by then. Hope it's not crowded want to take some tram rides up and ski the ridge.



I see tomorrow as what I call a 50/50 day.  Hard in morning and a totally different day after lunch, with bumps etc.  Had several of those the couple of years I did the Spring Pass at Killington with my son. (a good bang for the $ BTW).  I'm opting to skip the winter and hit the spring this weekend.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## chuckstah (Apr 7, 2017)

Hoping for 6 plus at Bolton Valley tomorrow. Noaa has it at 6-11 last time I looked.  Using the last of the vouchers and hoping for the high end, but 6 inches of dense stuff should ski good on the hardpack. 

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## Cornhead (Apr 8, 2017)

BAM!
	

	
	
		
		

		
			




Bolton Valley

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## MommaBear (Apr 8, 2017)

Cornhead said:


> BAM!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



This just made my other half cry.  His plan was to use up vouchers at Sugarbush and Bolton this weekend but looked at weather yesterday and saw wind and rain and bagged the idea.  Kicking himself now.   :smash:


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## 〽❄❅ (Apr 8, 2017)

MommaBear said:


> This just made my other half cry.  His plan was to use up vouchers at Sugarbush and Bolton this weekend but looked at weather yesterday and saw wind and rain and bagged the idea.  Kicking himself now.   :smash:


Me too


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## cdskier (Apr 8, 2017)

MommaBear said:


> This just made my other half cry.  His plan was to use up vouchers at Sugarbush and Bolton this weekend but looked at weather yesterday and saw wind and rain and bagged the idea.  Kicking himself now.   :smash:



I guess I shouldn't tell you that sugarbush was awesome today as well. Another great powder day! And lifts were ski on all day!


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## Glenn (Apr 8, 2017)

Southern Greens picked up an inch or two last night. Back to sun and spring tomorrow.


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## chuckstah (Apr 8, 2017)

Cornhead said:


> BAM!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Top 5 day for me today. Easily a foot of nice dry powder. Good skiing with you again Corn. 

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## Cornhead (Apr 8, 2017)

Great skiing with you again too. This season just keeps on delivering. Looking forward to a bluebird day at Stowe tomorrow. Have fun at Sunday River. We'll certainly hook up at K soon.














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## MommaBear (Apr 8, 2017)

cdskier said:


> I guess I shouldn't tell you that sugarbush was awesome today as well. Another great powder day! And lifts were ski on all day!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



After I showed him the photos and he kicked himself for not heading up last night, he hit the road late this afternoon.  He'll be at Sugarbush tomorrow.  Unfortunately, I will be here doing tax returns.  Living vicariously thru your posts.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 8, 2017)

Wish I could have made it up to n.VT this weekend, but the better half is out of days off.


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## Jully (Apr 9, 2017)

Found this interesting to look at. Not really anything I didn't expect in terms of snow fall, but still cool. From the NWS:


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## Glenn (Apr 9, 2017)

Very cool pic of the snow totals.  

Wonder how this year compares to other years; last year excluded of course.  


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## 4aprice (Apr 9, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Wish I could have made it up to n.VT this weekend, but the better half is out of days off.



I had my plans work out to a tee this past weekend.  Drove up Saturday morning arrived at Killington at noon.  Skied the afternoon Saturday which was awesome (woods, bumps) then got up and out for opening today (the kind of day I saved my Max Pass Killington tickets for) and skied till noon.  Absolutely off the hook this weekend.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Not Sure (Apr 9, 2017)

Glenn said:


> Very cool pic of the snow totals.
> 
> Wonder how this year compares to other years; last year excluded of course.
> 
> ...





The Winter that was,wasn't and was again . Wish my schedule was better this year but oh well . I have a feeling alot of places will be closing with 100% coverage .


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## fbrissette (Apr 9, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Wish I could have made it up to n.VT this weekend, but the better half is out of days off.



Fantastic ski week-end up at Jay.  One of the best of the year.


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## Glenn (Apr 10, 2017)

Very cool chart. Agreed. I think a lot of places will be shutting down with plenty of snow. The classic: "The snow is here....but the people aren't." situation. 

Great coverage at Stratton for closing day. Just barely starting to see a few brown spots. On the snowmaking trails, the coverage was deep! Even with the warm temps this week, I'm sure they could have gone at least until Easter.


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## kingslug (Apr 10, 2017)

Missed it...damn.


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## Glenn (May 8, 2017)

Still a little winter left in SoVT.  Stratton webcam earlier this morning.  








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## benski (May 8, 2017)

Glenn said:


> Still a little winter left in SoVT.  Stratton webcam earlier this morning.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Platty also got some snow.


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## Jully (May 8, 2017)

Looks skiable! Spin the lifts!


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## Glenn (May 9, 2017)

Another light dusting this AM!


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## bdfreetuna (May 15, 2017)

And for the record... Mt Snow 9" of snow 5/14/2017
Several inches throughout much of VT and NH


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## Glenn (May 15, 2017)

That seems a bit high. I checked the cams at Stratton at Mt. Snow yesterday AM. Looked to be around an inch or so. Just enough to cover the grass.


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## deadheadskier (May 15, 2017)

33.3" in 38 hours on Mount Washington.  Largest May snowstorm ever recorded on Washington.


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## prsboogie (May 15, 2017)

Glenn said:


> That seems a bit high. I checked the cams at Stratton at Mt. Snow yesterday AM. Looked to be around an inch or so. Just enough to cover the grass.


Mt Snow's web cam had a solid 7-8 yesterday morning https://www.instagram.com/p/BUEjsdBhj_N/

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## Glenn (May 16, 2017)

prsboogie said:


> Mt Snow's web cam had a solid 7-8 yesterday morning https://www.instagram.com/p/BUEjsdBhj_N/
> 
> Sent from my XT1565 using AlpineZone mobile app



Saw the update on FB last night. Surprised me!


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## jack97 (May 23, 2017)

JB's comparison of the GFS vs European for the past year. There were  couple of storms the European honed in on quick while the GFS took a while but eventually matched to its counterpart.


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