# The 4/5 sheer desperation thread



## polski (Apr 1, 2009)

This afternoon's NWS-Burlington forecast disco mentions:

 INTERESTING TO SEE THE GFS BUFKIT AT SLK SHOWS
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS BTWN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY OF 3.00" WITH ALMOST
0.75" FALLING AS SNOW. FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...BUT THE POTENTIAL
WL BE POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED 1.0 TO 1.50" QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME BY 00Z SUNDAY...LLVL THERMAL PROFILES AND
THICKNESS VALUES DROP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1200 FT. WL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
GRIDS WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY. SUNDAY...A
BRIEF MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA...WITH A 12 TO 18 HR
WINDOW OF DRY WX EXPECTED. SOME CONCERN WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLW PRODUCING CLOUDS/PRECIP THRU 18Z
SUNDAY...BEFORE CLRING DEVELOPS.

FWIW at the Jay site Roger Hill is quoted saying "The top of Jay Peak could see some fresh powder of perhaps 4 to 8 inches with 2 to 5 inches on the lower 2/3rds of the slopes by Sunday morning."

Other than that, boy do the forecasts look bleak for the next solid week. But maybe there will be a little window of ski opportunity Sunday?


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## billski (Apr 2, 2009)

I would agree, sat night - sun am look like best shot.  this was the same setup we had on 3/21 when Stowe got 8".


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## loafer89 (Apr 2, 2009)

Looks like some chances for higher elevation snows next week in the Northern Greens and the Adirondacks:

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...VERY ACTIVE WX PATTERN WL CONT FOR
DAYS 4 THRU 7 WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND
NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. THE OVERALL TREND WL BE FOR COOLER WX
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACRS THE MTNS MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDS. FIRST SYSTEM WL SLOWLY DEPART
CWA BY 18Z SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN CYCLONIC FLW AND WRAP AROUND
850-500MB MOISTURE COMBINING WITH ELONGATED 5H VORT ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA WL MENTION CLOUDS/SCATTERED PRECIP THRU 18Z SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION...FAVORABLE SFC TO 85H UPSLOPE FLW WL HELP TO ENHANCE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACRS THE DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES. CRNT
FEELING *2 TO 4 INCHES **WL** BE POSSIBLE FROM JAY PEAK TO STOWE...WITH
**ISOLATED** AMOUNTS NEAR 5". **BUFKIT** AT JAY PEAK AND SLK BOTH SHOW **QPF*
*BTWN** 0.35 TO 0.45" FALLING IN THE FORM OF SNOW LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.* MEANWHILE...BL TEMPS WL BE ABOVE 0C ACRS THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND ONLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. BASED ON CLOUDS AND 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 40S VALLEYS. IF MORE
SUN OCCURS THAN FCST...TEMPS ACRS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD
APPROACH 50F.

MONDAY THRU WEDS...NEXT SIGNIFICANT FULL LATITUDE TROF WITH
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRES WL IMPACT OUR FA. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WITH MAJOR IMPACTS TO OUR CWA. OVERALL MODELS
AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MID/UPPER
LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO EXACT TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES...POSITION OF
MID/UPPER LVL CLOSED CIRCULATION...AND AMOUNT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS. FEEL FIRST BAND OF WAA LIFT/MOISTURE WL DEVELOP
AROUND 12Z MONDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS OUR CWA AS SFC LOW PRES
TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. OVERALL QPF
WL BE BTWN 0.10 TO 0.25" WITH WAA LIFT/MOISTURE. WL HAVE TO WATCH MID/UPPER LVL
DRY SLOT AND IMPACTS OF SE DOWNSLOPING FLW FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE PRECIP MONDAY AFTN...BEFORE MORE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES
SE INTO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF BASE AND DEEPENS SFC LOW PRES ACRS
SNE BY 06Z TUES. THIS WELL DEVELOPED CLOSED VERTICALLY STACKED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK
INTO OUR CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUES. AT THE SAME
TIME...COLDER TEMPS WL BE PULLED TWD OUR CWA...WITH PRECIP
CHANGING TO SNOW BY 06Z TUES.* THE POTENTIAL **WL** BE FOR A LONG
DURATION UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT...WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT ABOVE 1000 **FT**. THE MOIST CYCLONIC
UPSLOPE **FLW**WL**CONT** INTO WEDS AS 85H TEMPS DROP TO -10C AND 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO -4C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW **ACRS** THE VALLEY
LOCATION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT TIME. ONCE AGAIN **GFS** SHOWS
BACKSIDE **QPF** AMOUNTS **BTWN** 0.75 TO 1.00"...FALLING IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AT JAY PEAK AND SLK.* IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS WL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE 977MB LOW PRES VERIFIES PER THE
LATEST GFS PROGS. OTHERWISE...A VERY SLOW DRYING TREND AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WL BE POSSIBLE BY THURS OF NEXT WEEK.


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## tjf67 (Apr 3, 2009)

billski said:


> I would agree, sat night - sun am look like best shot.  this was the same setup we had on 3/21 when Stowe got 8".



HMM That strange.  i went up the acess road to smuugs on 3/23 and could only find 4 inches.  Some old guy later on in the day told me they got 8 and I just chuckled.  May be you use different rulers over there than we do here.  Just saying


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## billski (Apr 3, 2009)

tjf67 said:


> HMM That strange. i went up the acess road to smuugs on 3/23 and could only find 4 inches. Some old guy later on in the day told me they got 8 and I just chuckled. May be you use different rulers over there than we do here. Just saying


 you're right; it was Bolton that got that much.


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## deadheadskier (Apr 3, 2009)

It's entirely feasible that Stowe got 8 and Smuggs only got 4.  It never ceases to amaze me how much more snow Stowe gets only being a mile away.  I'm no weather guru, but I'd guess it has to do with the angle storms come in and Stowe draining a lot of the Upslope moisture before it has a chance to deposit one ridge over in Smuggs.   On 3/6 and 3/7 the difference in snow depth in the woods between the two areas at around 2500 was staggering.


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## Angus (Apr 3, 2009)

what a disastrous end of the lift service season - the thunder is rumbling in metro-west boston!

and now brilliant streaks of lightning and heavy rain!


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## polski (Apr 3, 2009)

yeah same here, and from radar it looks like a great big line o' crap is moving through much of New England ... but still think there may be a window of opportunity Sunday. I'm eyeing Burke closing day for $18 + food donation. Gotta get an April day in somehow.

edit: and to check Burke off my to-do list, one of the last of the biggies left in the NE for me.


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## ski_resort_observer (Apr 3, 2009)

tjf67 said:


> HMM That strange.  i went up the acess road to smuugs on 3/23 and could only find 4 inches.  Some old guy later on in the day told me they got 8 and I just chuckled.  May be you use different rulers over there than we do here.  Just saying



Not sure what you mean by the "access rd to Smuggs". If it's Rt 108 your talking about or the entrance of Smuggs off Rt 108, that's low elevation compared to the upper mountain of Stowe.When you hit Smuggs you haven't really started to climb up to the Notch. I can easily see that much of diference in snowfall between the two locations.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Apr 3, 2009)

ski_resort_observer said:


> Not sure what you mean by the "access rd to Smuggs". If it's Rt 108 your talking about or the entrance of Smuggs off Rt 108, that's low elevation compared to the upper mountain of Stowe.When you hit Smuggs you haven't really started to climb up to the Notch. I can easily see that much of diference in snowfall between the two locations.



times 2..and it looks like several snowfall chances for the higher peaks of the northern Greens in the next week..I'll be at Stowe in a week so I hope there's some fresh Poe!!!!I had enough spring skiing the past month here in PA


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## tjf67 (Apr 4, 2009)

I am talking about the road that leads right through the notch.   BTW I skied stowe the same day there was 4 inches tops on the hill.
Just saying  again may be your rulers are different.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Apr 4, 2009)

tjf67 said:


> I am talking about the road that leads right through the notch.   BTW I skied stowe the same day there was 4 inches tops on the hill.
> Just saying  again may be your rulers are different.



I never thought Stowe used the Sugarbush ruler..


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## polski (Apr 4, 2009)

Scott B talks of wraparound upslope tonight along the Green Mtn spine and after seeing snow for himself at BV this afternoon said he could imagine 3-6" above 2,000'. As I noted elsewhere MRG already reports 3-4", enough for a surprise reopening tomorrow.

Desperation pays?


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## danny p (Apr 5, 2009)

Killington.com reporting 7" of fresh in the last 24 hours!  Pissed I missed it but it looks like wrap-around snow tuesday-friday next week!!!


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## Chesser (Apr 5, 2009)

polski said:


> Scott B talks of wraparound upslope tonight along the Green Mtn spine and after seeing snow for himself at BV this afternoon said he could imagine 3-6" above 2,000'. As I noted elsewhere MRG already reports 3-4", enough for a surprise reopening tomorrow.
> 
> Desperation pays?



The Bolton website is saying 5-7" at the base this morning. I was skiing up there for a couple hours yesterday afternoon, and the snow was coming down pretty heavily. Flakes seemed to be of a high moisture content which should be good for sticking to the old surfaces, but I have almost no idea what I'm talking about.


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## hardline (Apr 5, 2009)

the snow is deffinatly be blown around. here at mt snow everything is on wind hold except the nitro chair at carinthia. the conditions are as variable as it can get.


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## RootDKJ (Apr 5, 2009)

Stratton is real good today. Maybe 4 overnight.


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