# Week of March 17  to 23 2013



## billski (Mar 11, 2013)

Well, WBZ is already planning to whip up a frenzy for next week,  I can't tell who penned this.[h=5]The  0Z run of the Euro prints out another sizeable snowstorm across central  and southern New England for NEXT Tuesday. Hard to imagine this  forecasting holding like this for a whole week. Too much time between  now and then. But this storm bares watching especially if the other  models start to sniff it out. As we know everyhting has to come together  just right to get a storm of this magnitude, especially this time of  year. We will continue to watch this. Even if this storm does not  happen, it shows that the atmosphere is still very much in an active  pattern where these kind of storms can happen. The way things are going,  I would be surprised if we got out of March without another snowfall.[/h]
[h=5][/h]


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## ScottySkis (Mar 11, 2013)

Snow in March this is a better year then last year.


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## vinnyv11 (Mar 11, 2013)

Ill be around the mount snow area that weekend.  Man I hope it owns out.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 11, 2013)

vinnyv11 said:


> Ill be around the mount snow area that weekend.  Man I hope it owns out.



I was going to ask if you wanted to go to Elk this Sunday some other alpine zoners will be their this Sunday the 17, if your at Mt. Snow that is much bigger then Elk.


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## vinnyv11 (Mar 11, 2013)

Scotty said:


> I was going to ask if you wanted to go to Elk this Sunday some other alpine zoners will be their this Sunday the 17, if your at Mt. Snow that is much bigger then Elk.



Ill be at mount snow the following weekend.  22-24.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 11, 2013)

vinnyv11 said:


> Ill be at mount snow the following weekend.  22-24.



So want to go to Elk on this Sunday, I know Spring MTN high was interested in going to Elk this weekend, and so was Cornhead, is Saturday the .16 better for Elk.?


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## Euler (Mar 11, 2013)

fingers crossed!


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## WinnChill (Mar 11, 2013)

billski said:


> Well, WBZ is already planning to whip up a frenzy for next week,  I can't tell who penned this.



Certainly a possible active period--conditions look marginal for something trying to take shape.  We would have some downstream blocking to help out, although, it may be slightly displaced.  We'll see!


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## drjeff (Mar 11, 2013)

vinnyv11 said:


> Ill be at mount snow the following weekend.  22-24.



Pond Skimming, Duct Tape Derby and Reggaefest Weekend at Mount Snow - you don't even have to put your skis on the entire weekend and you'll still have a blast!


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## vinnyv11 (Mar 11, 2013)

drjeff said:


> Pond Skimming, Duct Tape Derby and Reggaefest Weekend at Mount Snow - you don't even have to put your skis on the entire weekend and you'll still have a blast!



I knew it was reggaefest do you think thats going to make the slopes rediculously crowded?  My game plan is to hit something else friday at least.  Maybe the bush or magic depending on conditions.


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## Ace of Spades (Mar 11, 2013)

Hope it pans out, even if it ends up not bombing out.... any snow at this point is a good thing. Fingers crossed!!

Josh


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## St. Bear (Mar 12, 2013)

Still showing in the morning runs?


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Still showing in the morning runs?



Yes, for the Great Lakes.  Moved majorly northwest.  Worse, it would bring rain to most of the northeast instead of snow now.

Obviously, hopefully it either changes back east or goes away completely.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 12, 2013)

vinnyv11 said:


> I knew it was reggaefest do you think thats going to make the slopes rediculously crowded?  My game plan is to hit something else friday at least.  Maybe the bush or magic depending on conditions.


I not going to Elk this weekend, to much expensives bills that are overdue.


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## 4aprice (Mar 12, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yes, for the Great Lakes.  Moved majorly northwest.  Worse, it would bring rain to most of the northeast instead of snow now.
> 
> Obviously, hopefully it either changes back east or goes away completely.



BG you will drive yourself crazy following these models.  I still think winter has at least one more trick up her sleeve for New England.  If its this week or next who knows but the skiing was good up there last weekend and I expect it to still be pretty good next weekend too.  Lets just say most models "track records" are not so hot.  JB still thinks so.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## wa-loaf (Mar 12, 2013)

Send the snow north. I need to fly out to Providence Tuesday for Utah.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 12, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> Send the snow north. I need to fly out to Providence Tuesday for Utah.



Have fun out their.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2013)

4aprice said:


> *BG you will drive yourself crazy following these models.*  I still think winter has at least one more trick up her sleeve for New England.  If its this week or next who knows but the skiing was good up there last weekend and I expect it to still be pretty good next weekend too. * Lets just say most models "track records" are not so hot.*  JB still thinks so.



I'd rather stay informed regardless of what the models say so that I can plan trips accordingly.  I do follow the weather pretty religiously from November to April, but that's all part of the fun, and it has on quite a few occasions either helped me to ski the "right" place or to avoid a particular weekend altogether.  For where I'm located, I can either ski the Poconos, Catskills, DAX, or n.VT, and that's a pretty large geographic realm which often has vastly different weather on a given day(s).


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## ScottySkis (Mar 12, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'd rather stay informed regardless of what the models say so that I can plan trips accordingly.  I do follow the weather pretty religiously from November to April, but that's all part of the fun, and it has on quite a few occasions either helped me to ski the "right" place or to avoid a particular weekend altogether.  For where I'm located, I can either ski the Poconos, Catskills, DAX, or n.VT, and that's a pretty large geographic realm which often has vastly different weather on a given day(s).



I need to be a passenger in your car lol.


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## abc (Mar 12, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'd rather stay informed regardless of what the models say so that I can plan trips accordingly.


"Stay informed" of what? Rumors?

As it was pointed out, the track record of prediction 10 days away has not been good at all. Yes, we know a storm is coming next week. Except we know that without needing any model: there has been storms about once every week! Whether that comes as rain or snow, or whether that will hit Atlanta or Burlington, we don't know. The "models" has been all over the place on that, and has been wrong more often than right. 

Besides, until this current storm pans out, and we see what shape the mountain end up with, the next storm doesn't really mean anything as far as skiable surface is concern!


> that's all part of the fun,


That's a diffferent story. I watch the guys give stock predictions on tv. It's 'fun' to watch. But I don't put my money into it!


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## ScottySkis (Mar 12, 2013)

abc said:


> That's a diffferent story. I watch the guys give stock predictions on tv. It's 'fun' to watch. But I don't put my money into it!



Good not to put money on what those people say their just paid to say that I believe. Someone close to me has lost way to much money on the stock market over the doing day trading.


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## bigbog (Mar 13, 2013)

vinnyv11 said:


> Ill be around the mount snow area that weekend.  Man I hope it owns out.



Ditto!....but exchange Big Squaw with Mount Snow...LOL.  Let's hope....


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## bigbog (Mar 13, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> Send the snow north. I need to fly out to Providence Tuesday for Utah.



_THE_ place to be......


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 14, 2013)

Yes please.   

Five days out is about when I start to take this crap seriously, so I figured I'd post this.  The daytime nature of the timing isnt optimal given it's March (sun), but there's just so much kaboom here that snow would definitely accumulate in a big way.


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## St. Bear (Mar 14, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yes please.
> 
> Five days out is about when I start to take this crap seriously, so I figured I'd post this. The daytime nature of the timing isnt optimal given it's March (sun), but there's just so much kaboom here that snow would definitely accumulate in a big way.



Help me read that, because the way I see it, it's forecasting 20-40 mm of precipitation, which would barely cover the ground.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 14, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> *Help me read that, because the way I see it, it's forecasting 20-40 mm of precipitation, which would barely cover the ground.*



This is showing h2o, not snowfall.  

As a general back-of-the-envelope rule, you take a 10:1 ratio for snow to water with these.  It could be less/more depending on temps etc....  So for an example I'll use Plattekill (because it rules), for that ski area this 12 hour panel is verbatim showing roughly 6 inches of snowfall. To sum the event's total snowfall, you then take the panel(s) preceding and/or following this panel (if applicable).


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## St. Bear (Mar 14, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> This is showing h2o, not snowfall.



Ah, gotcha.  Yeah, 1.5" of liquid precip would be impressive.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 14, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> This is showing h2o, not snowfall.
> 
> As a general back-of-the-envelope rule, you take a 10:1 ratio for snow to water with these.  It could be less/more depending on temps etc....  So for an example I'll use Plattekill (because it rules), for that ski area this 12 hour panel is verbatim showing roughly 6 inches of snowfall. To sum the event's total snowfall, you then take the panel(s) preceding and/or following this panel (if applicable).



Snow for platty before this Sunday the 17? Come on please say yes.


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## billski (Mar 14, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Ah, gotcha.  Yeah, 1.5" of liquid precip would be impressive.



nam
You might find this interesting to play with
It's got your 10:1 calculation included.
http://wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm


GFS
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.htm

Euro
http://wxug.us/12aig


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## octopus (Mar 14, 2013)

mt washington observatory just posted the possibility of a snow storm on the 19th. coastal rain, inland snow for the northeast .


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 14, 2013)

billski said:


> nam
> You might find this interesting to play with
> It's got your 10:1 calculation included.
> http://wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm
> ...



I'll have to play with those.  Dunno if it's as good as running the models yourself, but it sure is awfully pretty/fancy to look at!


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 14, 2013)

> Joe Bastardi
> *Dreaming of  a White Easter?   ECMWF  says coldest Easter since at least 07 for US.
> 
> Peter Cottontail wiped out the ground hog*








<----- Still dreaming of a White Easter. I'll be at Jay Peak post-Easter.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 15, 2013)

Getting a little worried about the temperature during the Monday/Tuesday storm next week.  Places like Whiteface and n.VT look okay, but I'm a bit fearful for the Cats; there's not much margin for error if model's predicted temps are correct.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 15, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Getting a little worried about the temperature during the Monday/Tuesday storm next week.  Places like Whiteface and n.VT look okay, but I'm a bit fearful for the Cats; there's not much margin for error if model's predicted temps are correct.



Ya I kind of had a feeling last weekend might have been the last at my Roxbury hill for some times.


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## vinnyv11 (Mar 15, 2013)

As long as sugarbush is north enough...


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## ScottySkis (Mar 15, 2013)

vinnyv11 said:


> As long as sugarbush is north enough...



Me to, I love bush ,but better with snow.


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## billski (Mar 16, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'll have to play with those.  Dunno if it's as good as running the models yourself, but it sure is awfully pretty/fancy to look at!


BG, what's the verdict?


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## billski (Mar 16, 2013)

Looks to me that the highest verticals are going to win out of this one.  Head north!


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## ScottySkis (Mar 16, 2013)

billski said:


> Looks to me that the highest verticals are going to win out of this one.  Head north!



You going to the Bush next weekend? How much snow you think for high elevations?


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## ScottySkis (Mar 16, 2013)

I wish I was at Gore today. Their reporting 9 inches of snow today. Hope to hear some great trip reports from their soon

Some A zoners are going to have powder days today and tomorrow.:


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## WinnChill (Mar 16, 2013)

billski said:


> Looks to me that the highest verticals are going to win out of this one.  Head north!



This has some pretty decent signs of accumulations for many areas.  A secondary low tries to develop right along the coast which would 1) tend to prevent mixing from going too far north (staying along MA for now), and 2) focusing most snow across same areas as last time--S VT thru NH and into S ME.  

I'll try to keep up with everything this weekend but we're all out with a hockey tourney in ME.  I'll check in as often as possible.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 16, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> This has some pretty decent signs of accumulations for many areas.  A secondary low tries to develop right along the coast which would 1) tend to prevent mixing from going too far north (staying along MA for now), and 2) focusing most snow across same areas as last time--S VT thru NH and into S ME.
> 
> I'll try to keep up with everything this weekend but we're all out with a hockey tourney in ME.  I'll check in as often as possible.



Have fun time at the hockey event. Thanks again for very reliable weather predictions for out hills.


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## Puck it (Mar 16, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> This has some pretty decent signs of accumulations for many areas.  A secondary low tries to develop right along the coast which would 1) tend to prevent mixing from going too far north (staying along MA for now), and 2) focusing most snow across same areas as last time--S VT thru NH and into S ME.
> 
> I'll try to keep up with everything this weekend but we're all out with a hockey tourney in ME.  I'll check in as often as possible.




Hey, Winn.  Can you give us more detail on the timing of the acculmalation for the northern Whites for Tues into Wed.  

BTW, I am at a hocket tourney to, but in St. Louis for my son UCONN team.


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## billski (Mar 16, 2013)

Scotty said:


> You going to the Bush next weekend? How much snow you think for high elevations?



No clue.  This late in the season you need to trust Ullr.  Bush Usually does well, but even better, Stowe or Jay will do well in VT.  If it was me (depending where I'm staying in VT), I might consider Bush, Stowe or Jay depending on how the weather flushes out.


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## Masskier (Mar 16, 2013)

From BTV


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 425 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.  WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT WILL BY UNDERWAY TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FORM ALONG THE DELMARVA COASTLINE. GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT TAKING THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST RIGHT OVER CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING WHILE INTENSIFYING...SETTING UP A VERY FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE BTV CWA. STILL A LITTLE FAR OUT IN TIME TO HASH OUT ALL THE FINER MESOSCALE DETAILS OF THE STORM IN REGARDS TO QPF/SNOW AND EAST/SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL ALONG THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON STORM WITH UPWARDS OF A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED.  BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA AND ESSENTIALLY PARKS ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND. WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE AROUND...SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE UPPER ELEVATIONS WITH PERIODS OF UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 16, 2013)

Masskier said:


> From BTV
> 
> 
> LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 425 PM EDT SATURDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.  WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT WILL BY UNDERWAY TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FORM ALONG THE DELMARVA COASTLINE. GEM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT TAKING THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST RIGHT OVER CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING WHILE INTENSIFYING...SETTING UP A VERY FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE BTV CWA. STILL A LITTLE FAR OUT IN TIME TO HASH OUT ALL THE FINER MESOSCALE DETAILS OF THE STORM IN REGARDS TO QPF/SNOW AND EAST/SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL ALONG THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON STORM WITH UPWARDS OF A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED.  BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA AND ESSENTIALLY PARKS ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY THE WEEKEND. WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE AROUND...SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE UPPER ELEVATIONS WITH PERIODS OF UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.



I like this very very much.:beer:


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## WinnChill (Mar 16, 2013)

Puck it said:


> Hey, Winn.  Can you give us more detail on the timing of the acculmalation for the northern Whites for Tues into Wed.
> 
> BTW, I am at a hocket tourney to, but in St. Louis for my son UCONN team.



Nice!  This is our first tourney--Squirt team did good.  They didn't make the finals but they didn't lose a game either--very proud.

Sure--bulk of it hits late Tuesday/Tuesday night...Wed would be day to hit up slopes.


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## octopus (Mar 16, 2013)

is it gonna be all snow, or a mix?


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## billski (Mar 16, 2013)

octopus said:


> is it gonna be all snow, or a mix?



In an earlier note in this thread, Winnchill indicated:

A secondary low tries to develop right along the coast which would 1)  tend to prevent mixing from going too far north (staying along MA for  now), and 2) focusing most snow across same areas as last time--S VT  thru NH and into S ME.

Everything I'm seeing says the same thing = north of Albany, northern Mass Border, = all snow, and a good dump of it.    I don't know how to figure out the moisture content.  I'm sure winnchill will have something to say in between the games.


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## billski (Mar 16, 2013)

Source: US National Weather Service Boston MA


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## octopus (Mar 16, 2013)

billski said:


> In an earlier note in this thread, Winnchill indicated:
> 
> A secondary low tries to develop right along the coast which would 1)  tend to prevent mixing from going too far north (staying along MA for  now), and 2) focusing most snow across same areas as last time--S VT  thru NH and into S ME.
> 
> Everything I'm seeing says the same thing = north of Albany, northern Mass Border, = all snow, and a good dump of it.    I don't know how to figure out the moisture content.  I'm sure winnchill will have something to say in between the games.



very nice. it didn't have this info on the mobile app when i checked it earlier, was saying possible mix further north. thx


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## ScottySkis (Mar 17, 2013)

billski said:


> View attachment 8331
> Source: US National Weather Service Boston MA
> 
> View attachment 8332



I like these maps!


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## Puck it (Mar 17, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> Nice!  This is our first tourney--Squirt team did good.  They didn't make the finals but they didn't lose a game either--very proud.
> 
> Sure--bulk of it hits late Tuesday/Tuesday night...Wed would be day to hit up slopes.




Thx


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## billski (Mar 17, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> Nice!  This is our first tourney--Squirt team did good.  They didn't make the finals but they didn't lose a game either--very proud.


  So what happened to the kids yesterday?  today?


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## billski (Mar 17, 2013)

*Regarding rain/ice/snow line*

*

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1042 AM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013
*
SO FEEL THE STORM WILL PLAY OUT IN THE FOLLOWING...LIGHT PRECIP WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BECOMING MODERATE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT
SNOW FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT S RHODE ISLAND AND S MASSACHUSETTS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. A MESSY MORNING COMMUTE IS EXPECTED.

DURING THE DAY...THE MIX LINE /SNOW-SLEET-FREEZING RAIN/ TRANSITIONS
SLOWLY INTO THE INTERIOR. ANTICIPATING LOCALES EAST OF THE I-495
BELTWAY AND SOUTH OF THE I-84 TO I-90 CORRIDOR TO CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN...WHILE A WINTRY MIX PREVAILS NORTH AND WEST.

INTO EVENING...MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXITING OUT AS DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ... FEEL RAIN WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO SLOW QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST /BEST CHANCES ACROSS
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS
...
THIS STILL REMAINS AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST TO A DEGREE WITH REGARDS TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS AND PRECIPITATION TYPES

*/WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...STORM HAS LIFTED OUT OF THE AREA EARLY. GUSTY N/NW WINDS ...FOR WEDNESDAY.


*NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1045 AM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013
*
...THIS PLACES MOST OF THE REGION
WITHIN SNOW. HOWEVER...ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY MAKE INTO PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT FOR A
MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FZRA WHICH WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. FURTHER NORTH...FORECAST PROFILES
SUGGEST THIS WARM NOSE MAY SNEAK UP THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION
TOWARD ALBANY AND THE TACONICS FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET. SO
WE WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
CONNECTICUT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TO THE OVERALL THERMAL
PROFILES AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THIS MAY BE SHAPING UP FOR A
MAINLY SNOW EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. SINCE WE ARE LOOKING AT A
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENT...

*NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 AM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013*

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL  PRODUCE A LONG DURATION SNOWFALL...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY
...
A WET/HIGH
DENSITY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH A FEW POWER
OUTAGES AND SOME TREE DAMAGE POSSIBLE. WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY...AS EVENT BECMS CLOSER. EARLY SNOW
TOTALS ARE 6 TO 12" VALLEYS AND 12 TO 20" IN THE MTNS BY WEDS
AFTN.

FEEL MOISTURE/QPF WL COME IN TWO SURGES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY..
ON MONDAY  NIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES LIKELY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATION WL BE LIKELY LATE TUES AFTN INTO WEDS WITH

SNOW RATIOS  WL BE HIGHER AT NIGHT 15 TO 1...AND LESS DURING THE DAY 

NOT BE  SURPRISED IF SOME SLEET/EVEN RAIN MIXED IN NEAR RUTLAND/VSF AND
ACRS THE WESTERN DACKS FROM GOUVERNEUR TO POTSDAM.

*FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE STORM...*
THE FCST KEY WL BE HOW QUICKLY AND
WHERE SECONDARY SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG THE COAST

THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL  EVENTUALLY DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
OVER THE AREA. COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW  AND THEN WE WILL BE UNDER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS


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## billski (Mar 17, 2013)

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
835 AM EDT SUN MAR 17 2013

WILL SEE PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST ZONES. PRECIPITATION WILL
START AS SNOW EVERYWHERE AS DEEP COLD AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY THE FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. THE MOUNTAINS... OUTSIDE OF THE DOWNSLOPE
AREAS OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY... WILL ALSO GET SIGNIFICANT SNOW
FROM THIS AS WELL.  

BUT MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A MORE SNOWY SOLUTION FOR THE
COASTAL PLAIN... AND THIS MAY LIMIT ANY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

AND WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER
OF 1-1.25 INCHES... ALTHOUGH MAY SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS THAT HIGH
IN AREAS WHERE BANDING OCCURS. SNOWFALL RATIOS AWAY FROM THE
COAST ALSO LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO 10 TO 1 OR AS HIGH AS 15 TO 1 IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES... AND SNOW MAY NOT BE AS WET AS WE WOULD EXPECT
THIS TIME OF YEAR.


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## billski (Mar 17, 2013)

Sounding like party time everywhere in the mtns!



Only Albany is posting pretty forecast pictures.  Everyone else is holding off.


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## WinnChill (Mar 17, 2013)

octopus said:


> is it gonna be all snow, or a mix?



Tourney over and back home--kids did great...either tied or won all games but not enough to make final round.  Still a great time.  

Catching up now and did a quick update--limited mixing....maybe a bit into Pats/Crotched/McIntyre but that should be about it.  Heaviest looks to be like last time--from about the Whites thru Sugarloaf...we upped accumulations closer to a foot for those areas.


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## dmw (Mar 17, 2013)

http://www.famousinternetskiers.com/mid-week-storm-complex-to-bring-snow-to-northeast/


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 17, 2013)

I'm really hoping the warm air expected with this storm is overdone.  Just ONCE this winter I'd like to see a decent snow in Jersey.  Right now it's slated at 1" to 3" then rain for where I am, but if the models crap out on the temps we could get a good 8" or so....


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 17, 2013)

Maps have been rolling in over the last 24 hours, but I've been in ski country.....   Below, for your viewing pleasure.

_*Today's 12z Euro snowfall predictive*_






_*
Here's one of my favorite online weather wonk's guess

*



_
_*This one's from JB's kid*_


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## hammer (Mar 17, 2013)

Still under the gun for too much in my back yard but this is the type of storm that ski country needs...


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## billski (Mar 17, 2013)

Here's the resort-by-resort forecast from a non snowforecast source:

http://www.onthesnow.com/vermont/snow-forecast.html

No matter how you look at it, that's a lot of snow coming!

Life is good............

http://www.iabsi.com/public/ski/total_snowfall_forecast.html


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## andyzee (Mar 17, 2013)

Starting to look like I picked a good week to be up here. 

Killington:

7-DAY FORECAST

    Tonight Clear, with a low around 8. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Monday Increasing clouds, with a high near 30. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Monday Night Snow likely, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low  around 21. Southeast wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

    Tuesday Snow. High near 32. Breezy, with a southeast wind 17 to 22  mph decreasing to 9 to 14 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high  as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

    Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 19. Light and variable wind becoming  west 9 to 14 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 90%.  New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.


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## Rikka (Mar 17, 2013)

I feel a sick day for Wednesday is in order!!


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## polski (Mar 17, 2013)

I've got lodging booked in the MRV Mon and Tue nights and as is often the case my big concern, for Tue at least, is wind. From this afternoon's summit forecast for the Greens:

.TUESDAY...SUMMITS IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...THEN SUMMITS BECOMING OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. SNOW. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH...DECREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

I realize that's the summits but the forecasts for the valleys don't call for wind to be much lighter. Appreciate intel from anyone familiar with effects of strong SE winds on lifts at MRG and SB. Looks like those would be crosswinds for most chairs at both places, with possible exception of Gatehouse and maybe North Lynx at SB. One person in my party does not skin, which would complicate things a bit if there are widespread wind holds. Thanks in advance ...


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 17, 2013)

Rikka said:


> *I feel a sick day for Wednesday is in order!*!



 Check the wind first.  Most models seem okay with wind, but the GFS wants to bring several days of high winds (i.e. hopefully that model is wrong). 

 If the GFS is correct (hey, you never know), skiing wont be a pleasant experience until probably the weekend.  I dont know enough about each model's individual biases to understand what's going on here, but the GFS panels seem WAY more windy than the ukie and Canuck, etc....


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## ScottySkis (Mar 18, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Maps have been rolling in over the last 24 hours, but I've been in ski country.....   Below, for your viewing pleasure.
> 
> _*Today's 12z Euro snowfall predictive*_
> 
> ...



Looking great for upcoming Bush trip, you going BG?


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## billski (Mar 18, 2013)

No argument here.  I feel a little under the weather...


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## billski (Mar 18, 2013)




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## ScottySkis (Mar 18, 2013)

billski said:


> No argument here.  I feel a little under the weather...



You snow illness is the best kind of sick, have fun with the powder Billski.


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## snoseek (Mar 18, 2013)

Leaving for Saddleback in 321....


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## xwhaler (Mar 18, 2013)

Midweek powder day at one of my favorites in the East Saddleback...I'm jealous my friend...have a blast up there and look forward to a TR


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## billski (Mar 18, 2013)

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 200 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...A LONG DURATION MAJOR LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH TWO PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ANTICIPATED.

MUSIC TO MY EARS 

...WITH ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW ANTICIPATE ON WEDS/THURS.

nirvana


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## billski (Mar 18, 2013)

THIS SNOW MAINLY LOOKS TO HAVE RATIOS AT LEAST 10 TO 1 IN MOST PLACES...AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 15 OR 16 TO 1...WHICH IS RARE THIS LATE IN MARCH.


POWDER DAY(S)!


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 18, 2013)

billski said:


> No argument here.  I feel a little under the weather...



And yet again, Burke gets the snow shadow shaft


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## ScottySkis (Mar 18, 2013)

Snow for the Bush, what great forecaster from snowforecast.com Mr Winnchill think?


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## kingslug (Mar 18, 2013)

Any actual info on whats going on in the catskills..pretty nasty drive tomorrow if I want to go..have to be worth it.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 18, 2013)

Snowing pretty hard here in n.NJ.  Such a shame that they say this will switch to rain here.


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## billski (Mar 18, 2013)

kingslug said:


> Any actual info on whats going on in the catskills..pretty nasty drive tomorrow if I want to go..have to be worth it.


You're going to be going through a rain/ice/snow line somewhere along the way. In my experience unless you can pre-position tonight, you'd be better off hitting the road on Wednesday.  The way I see it, there is going to be at least two mornings of pow, probably lasting the whole day.  I'm counting on NOT MANY people, except the die hards already having hung up the sticks for the season.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 18, 2013)

3 hours commute home on bus six inches coming to my town today, tomorrow will not be fun going to work, I need to go to Platty, can anyone work for me in lower NYC, has fun Markc hope you get out and other A zoners WHO going to Plattydaze.:beer:


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## ScottySkis (Mar 18, 2013)

kingslug said:


> Any actual info on whats going on in the catskills..pretty nasty drive tomorrow if I want to go..have to be worth it.



Snow Platty might think is opening tomorrow or Wednesday, in Facebook go powder go.


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## billski (Mar 18, 2013)

kingslug said:


> Any actual info on whats going on in the catskills..pretty nasty drive tomorrow if I want to go..have to be worth it.



Here is what the NWS is modeling for the snow-rain line for tomorrow, daytime







It will all turn to snow overnight.


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## billski (Mar 18, 2013)

kingslug said:


> Any actual info on whats going on in the catskills..pretty nasty drive tomorrow if I want to go..have to be worth it.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=RWR


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## Bene288 (Mar 18, 2013)

Pretty hard blower snow here in Albany. On the road at 5 to head up to the Daks'


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## vinnyv11 (Mar 18, 2013)

billski said:


> You're going to be going through a rain/ice/snow line somewhere along the way. In my experience unless you can pre-position tonight, you'd be better off hitting the road on Wednesday.  The way I see it, there is going to be at least two mornings of pow, probably lasting the whole day.  I'm counting on lots of people, except the die hards already having hung up the sticks for the season.



Man I hope your right.  My ski trip doesn't start till Thursday.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 18, 2013)

vinnyv11 said:


> Man I hope your right.  My ski trip doesn't start till Thursday.



He is. He usually a whether man too. The Bush will be great Vinny you love it,  2400 vertical, long runs continues, trees, castle rock, , and snow all week.:beer:


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## billski (Mar 19, 2013)

Even though radar looks otherwise, all Weather Offices are standing by their forecasts.

Dawn reports
from Boston Office NWS
Burlington
- Maine/NH - few reports, mostly one to a few inches.

don't forget, total snow = snow + sleet


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## billski (Mar 19, 2013)

NWS Albany, 6am
Thanks for all your reports so far this morning.  Snowfall reports have  varied from just a few inches in the Capital Region to 5-8" across the  Lake George-Glens Falls-Saratoga Region.  More snow is on the way - *here's how much additional snow we expect *through the day today!











See (my) complete set


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## billski (Mar 19, 2013)

Mass State Police, 6:50am Tuesday

Metro Boston: 3-4inches snow on roads, plows and sanders out, patrols 
responding to numerous spinouts Rt 93 & 95 areas. Slow going.

Central&western MA: steady snow, several inches on roads, numerous 
plows and sanders out. Patrols resp to minor crashes & cars off 
road.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 19, 2013)

About 4 inches in North Jersey. Roads a little slick, nothing bus can't handle.


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## billski (Mar 19, 2013)

We have about 7" of heavy compacting snow, about 1/2" water laden snow at base

NWS Taunton

The storm is just getting started developing off the DE coast this morning.  Do not be fooled by the radar.  It's not over yet.


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## billski (Mar 19, 2013)

More snips from WFO's

boston

730 AM UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW TOTALS ACROSS MIDDLESEX AND WORCESTER COUNTIES. EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TO FALL IN THAT REGION.
MODELS ARE  INDICATING THAT A DRY SLO[Y] [W]ILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING

MIX BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS JUST NORTH OF THE PIKE...BUT THAT TRANSITION WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD. HAVE GREATEST CONFIDENCE THAT NORTH OF ROUTE 2 WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW
...
THIS WINTRY TRANSITION WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD EXTEND THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS UP TO ROUTE 2 BEFORE HALTING.

ALBANY

IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME INTERMITTENT AND... MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.... TEMPS WERE MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 20S SO THE SNOW RATIO WAS AT OR BELOW 12:1.




COASTAL STORM UNFOLDS...... SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PRECIP TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE COMPLICATED FACTOR ... WILL BE THE WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND THE HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE. IT APPEARS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY COME UP SHORT WITH WARNING CRITERIA AS MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AND THE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE A WINTRY MIXTURE OR EVEN A PERIOD OF RAINFALL CLOSE TO NOON HOUR. 

FURTHER NORTH...SEEMS MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW BUT ACCUMULATING WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THOSE WARMING... TEMPS AND SOME POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE SLEET MIXING IN FROM TIME TO TIME. WE WILL AWAIT FOR THOSE SNOWFALL REPORTS BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. THANKS FOR THE EXCELLENT COORDINATION FROM NEIGHBORING WFOS.

gray me

CURRENT FORECAST THINKING HOLDS...WITH ONE SLUG OF MOD TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.


THIS SURGE OF SNOWFALL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING...WITH ABOUT 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS WHERE THE SNOW BECOMES LIGHT AROUND MIDDAY...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING.


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## octopus (Mar 19, 2013)

plattekill cancelled powderdaize, only 3" and sleet.


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## Puck it (Mar 19, 2013)

Damn hole over Cannon again!!!!!


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## St. Bear (Mar 19, 2013)

Puck it said:


> Damn hole over Cannon again!!!!!



Don't get too antsy.  The heavy stuff for Northern NE isn't supposed to start until late afternoon anyway.


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## ERJ-145CA (Mar 19, 2013)

Got about 4" at my house - 10 minutes from Mountain Creek.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 19, 2013)

Any snow is good snow, especially in March or April, but this is going to underperform a bit versus the high-end "greed" totals.  Still a nice thump for the mountains though.


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 19, 2013)

Puck it said:


> Damn hole over Cannon again!!!!!




Same for Burke . The wind switched over to the SE at about 7:30 this morning, immediately shutting off the snow. Burke picked up 4 inches last night and their webcam was showing no snow all morning. The snow is just starting up again as the back half of the storm moves in. Was really hoping for the 14" number that was being thrown around. 10" sounds more likely.


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## Puck it (Mar 19, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> Same for Burke . The wind switched over to the SE at about 7:30 this morning, immediately shutting off the snow. Burke picked up 4 inches last night and their webcam was showing no snow all morning. The snow is just starting up again as the back half of the storm moves in. Was really hoping for the 14" number that was being thrown around. 10" sounds more likely.



Still nothing on the cam at Cannon.


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 19, 2013)

Burke's cam is currently showing heavy snowfall


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## billski (Mar 19, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> Burke's cam is currently showing heavy snowfall


  We are pleased.  :flag:


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## billski (Mar 19, 2013)

Round two


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## Puck it (Mar 19, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> Burke's cam is currently showing heavy snowfall



At Cannon too!!!!!


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## billski (Mar 19, 2013)

nws burlington


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## ScottySkis (Mar 19, 2013)

billski said:


> nws burlington
> 
> View attachment 8356



I like the snow, hopefully my commute home through NJ is quick tonight.


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## snoseek (Mar 19, 2013)

Absolutely nuking in Bethel


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## abc (Mar 19, 2013)

billski said:


> Round two


I wish you guys good luck. But round 2 had past the Cats & Hudson Valley. It only lasted about an hr and not a whole lot of moisture.


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## billski (Mar 19, 2013)

Another  late season winter storm hit southern New England hard over the past 24  hours. Below is a map displaying the latest snowfall totals from this  storm. 

 Quiet but chilly weather will be the story on Wed, but  there is the risk for more accumulating snow across portions of the  southeast New England Coast Thu afternoon into Thu night.

nws boston


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## billski (Mar 19, 2013)




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## ScottySkis (Mar 19, 2013)

How think snow will still be snowing on Friday afternoon on the way from NYC to Sugarbush?


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## billski (Mar 19, 2013)

Looks like NH and ME are getting theirs right about now!


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## Puck it (Mar 19, 2013)

billski said:


> Looks like NH and ME are getting theirs right about now!


Come on baby!


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## billski (Mar 19, 2013)

Scotty said:


> How think snow will still be snowing on Friday afternoon on the way from NYC to Sugarbush?




This


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## polski (Mar 21, 2013)

polski said:


> I've got lodging booked in the MRV Mon and Tue nights and as is often the case my big concern, for Tue at least, is wind. From this afternoon's summit forecast for the Greens:
> 
> .TUESDAY...SUMMITS IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...THEN SUMMITS BECOMING OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. SNOW. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS. SOUTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH...DECREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
> 
> I realize that's the summits but the forecasts for the valleys don't call for wind to be much lighter. Appreciate intel from anyone familiar with effects of strong SE winds on lifts at MRG and SB. Looks like those would be crosswinds for most chairs at both places, with possible exception of Gatehouse and maybe North Lynx at SB.



I'll answer my own question retrospectively: 

On Tuesday at MRG both the single and double opened around 10:30. The single spun for the rest of the day but I am told the double only ran for about an hour. (Using that actionable intelligence I stuck mostly to the double yesterday a.m. and indeed it was quite lightly tracked early in the day.) At SB all upper mountain lifts were on wind hold all day Tues (though as I noted in my TR there was plenty of great snow to keep us entertained off the Green Mountain Express at Mt Ellen all day). 

So, short answer, strongish SE winds produced a mixed bag as far as wind holds at MRG and SB.

I'll also say the storm unfolded not quite as forecast for the N Greens. We were supposed to get a front-end thump Monday overnight with a lull most of the day Tues and then a bigger thump Tuesday overnight and nothing more than snow showers yesterday (Wed). SB/MRG got in the area of 4-5" by opening bell Tues but it kept snowing all day, at times heavy; we had at least 8" at Mt Ellen base by the end of the day. Kept snowing into the evening, got, I dunno, another 4" or so overnight but not the 1-2"/hr dumping some had forecast and not a foot of fresh first thing Wed. But it kept snowing most of the day Wed at MRG including 2-3 hrs of moderate to borderline heavy in the early afternoon, adding probably 4" or so over the course of the day. Some lightly skied areas definitely got refills.  

ALL GOOD!


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## polski (Mar 21, 2013)

p.s. yesterday morning it stopped snowing a little before sunrise half a mile down the road from MRG at the Mad River Barn, and by 8 a.m. the sun was trying to peek through the clouds. As we drove to MRG it started snowing right at the parking lot  so I figure there was upslope action going on. Similar situation at midday when we did a run down that left us back at the Barn - no snow, sun trying to break through; drive back to the mountain and moderate snowfall there. By late afternoon the snow was more widespread though, moderate to heavy (1"/hr at least) from the mountain to the other side of Roxbury gap, easing up a bit by I-89. Last snow we saw was in W Lebanon.


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## tekweezle (Mar 23, 2013)

Its snowed on the way up your Stratton. Could be a good sign. 

Sent from a Samsung Fascinate running CM 10.1


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 23, 2013)

Been snowing all day here at Gore, coming down hard now.


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## drjeff (Mar 23, 2013)

"Chronic flurries" most of the day at Mount Snow today! Nice on top of the 3-4" of fluff that fell overnight that fell ontop of the 19" that fell earlier this week  It's mighty good skiing in SoVt right now!


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