# bad news for Vermont ski towns



## ski_resort_observer (Apr 19, 2011)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ulation-slides-on-bad-times-census-shows.html


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## riverc0il (Apr 19, 2011)

> Census figures show the number of Dover residents younger than 18 plunged 40.3 percent, falling to 187 from 313.


No surprise there. I wouldn't be surprised if population shifts for small town Vermont (and small town anywhere, really) are led by younger people up to the average child bearing age. Goodness knows there was nothing keeping me in StJ when a better opportunity came up that was closer to a major population center.



> The loss of people doesn’t trouble everyone. Bill McKibben, a writer, climate-change activist and scholar-in-residence at Middlebury College, said he’d “rather have quality than quantity.”


What an ass. A Middlebury College professor sure doesn't need to worry about the economic realities of small town living and lack of good jobs. McKibben's perspective here is terrible. For someone so active about localized economies, you would think this would be a terrible thing to McKibben. If enough people leave a community, it means less local wealth.


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## deadheadskier (Apr 19, 2011)

Minimal opportunity for young professionals in most of Vermont.  Combine that with a high cost of living compared with earnings and well, it's no surprise the population is declining in many areas.

Heck, I found it hard in Chittenden County, where there is the most opportunity in the state.


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## drjeff (Apr 19, 2011)

It's probably not as big a deal given how VT spreads its property tax revenue statewide, as opposed to just keeping what is collected in a town, in that town.  I'm sure it will get spun by some "economic gurus"  as a positive because of that fact, since overall the VT population increased slightly.

In the big scheme of things, this isn't all that suprising, since the opportunities for stable, well paying year round employment in a resort town in VT (something that a fresh out of college/younger person is more than likely looking for) isn't that great these days.  With todays' reality for many in that age demographic if they want to live in ski town being a seasonal winter job, then more than likely some time on unemployment from the late part of ski season until the start of summer season, then a summer seasonal job (probably with less hours per week than the winter seasonal job) and then some more time on unemployment from roughly about labor day until Thanksgiving. Take that and add in that if you're younger and single, chances are you might be looking for someone to date and possibly settledown with in the future, and the pool of potential mates to choose from isn't that large, and that doesn't help as folks are weighing the small resort town vs. "larger metropolitan area" debate


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## from_the_NEK (Apr 19, 2011)

deadheadskier said:


> Minimal opportunity for young professionals in most of Vermont.  Combine that with a high cost of living compared with earnings and well, it's no surprise the population is declining in many areas.
> 
> Heck, I found it hard in Chittenden County, where there is the most opportunity in the state.



I got lucky and work at one of the few high-tech companies in the NEK.



drjeff said:


> Take that and add in that if you're younger and single, chances are you might be looking for someone to date and possibly settledown with in the future, and the pool of potential mates to choose from isn't that large, and that doesn't help as folks are weighing the small resort town vs. "larger metropolitan area" debate



Again I got lucky (although only after being very frustrated).

Oh yea... that Middlebury Prof is a D-bag.   Many professors at any of the Champlain Valley Colleges and Universities really look down their noses at rural VT. I this know from attending one.


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## Cannonball (Apr 19, 2011)

riverc0il said:


> Quote:
> The loss of people doesn’t trouble everyone. Bill McKibben, a writer, climate-change activist and scholar-in-residence at Middlebury College, said he’d “rather have quality than quantity.”
> 
> What an ass.



Calling McKibben as ass is the understatement of the week.  Why can't we get him to just go away.


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## witch hobble (Apr 19, 2011)

riverc0il said:


> What an ass. A Middlebury College professor sure doesn't need to worry about the economic realities of small town living and lack of good jobs. McKibben's perspective here is terrible. For someone so active about localized economies, you would think this would be a terrible thing to McKibben. If enough people leave a community, it means less local wealth.



Hold on now, they put quotes around five of his words, not even a full sentence.  It could easily be out of context. It does sound suspiciously conservative.


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## drjeff (Apr 19, 2011)

Cannonball said:


> Calling McKibben as ass is the understatement of the week.  Why can't we get him to just go away.



1 word: Tenure


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## Cannonball (Apr 19, 2011)

witch hobble said:


> Hold on now, they put quotes around five of his words, not even a full sentence.  It could easily be out of context. It does sound suspiciously conservative.



Actually, it sounds exactly like something McKibben would say.


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## witch hobble (Apr 19, 2011)

Cannonball said:


> Actually, it sounds exactly like something McKibben would say.



What, that only the "quality" people should have kids?  And no more than 2.  And that the "quantity" people are more likely to be dependant?


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## thetrailboss (Apr 19, 2011)

I read the article at 2am this morning because I could not sleep and I must say it is true. Unfortunately they did not get into the reasons for why people are leaving...that is political though. What is implied is that a lot of the people who are leaving are those that Vermont needs...working young people with families and 30 years to contribute revenue...err...contribute to our communities. My wife and I have terminal degrees and are getting ready to leave. Vermont's loss is Utah's gain! 



riverc0il said:


> What an ass. A Middlebury College professor sure doesn't need to worry about the economic realities of small town living and lack of good jobs. McKibben's perspective here is terrible. For someone so active about localized economies, you would think this would be a terrible thing to McKibben. If enough people leave a community, it means less local wealth.


 
As a Midd alum I have been very unhappy with his attitude and what he has said. He lives in Ripton, about 10 miles from the campus, and yet he lectures folks on living local, not commuting, etc. Unless he bikes to campus everyday OR works from home he is part of the problem.  His elitest attitude and arrogance takes away from the work he has been trying to do IMHO.


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## drjeff (Apr 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> As a Midd alum I have been very unhappy with his attitude and what he has said. He lives in Ripton, about 10 miles from the campus, and yet he lectures folks on living local, not commuting, etc. Unless he bikes to campus everyday OR works from home he is part of the problem.  His elitest attitude and arrogance takes away from the work he has been trying to do IMHO.



You just gotta love the "do as I say, but don't expect ME to do it too" crowd that exists these days   :smash:


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## Nick (Apr 19, 2011)

It's too bad, i'm pretty sure Burlington is voted over and over again as one of the top places in America to live. The economy affects all... I'm sure the construction guy from Killington in the article is hardly alone when you look nationwide. 

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2008/snapshots/PL5010675.html


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## Cannonball (Apr 19, 2011)

witch hobble said:


> What, that only the "quality" people should have kids?  And no more than 2.  And that the "quantity" people are more likely to be dependant?



Yes, that's exactly the way he has approached environmental issues.  As someone who work in environmental science and advocacy I would say McKibben is far more detrimental to the cause than most of the opposition on the right.


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## Geoff (Apr 19, 2011)

I think the Vermont income tax and Act 68 tax structure has a lot to do with this.

Resort towns have a lot of "seasonal residents" who have consulting / telecommuting / trust fund gigs.   Those people can declare one of several states as their residence.   Vermont has a really stiff graduated state income tax.   If you  had to pick between Vermont and Massholia, it's a no brainer for incomes over $100K.   Act 68 also has created a bizarre local property tax structure where in towns like Killington and Stowe, the resident property tax rate is higher than the commerical rate the vaction homes are taxed at.   This is a "fine" for those towns paying about $15K per pupil for education.   In Killington, High School and Middle School are tuitioned out to Woodstock so it's not like the town has any particular say in the matter.   I'm sure there are lots of similar towns.

So if you make decent money and straddle a  few states, Vermont is unlikely to be the state you pick for your residence these days.


If you look at housing prices at Killington, you certainly can't use the "they got priced out of the housing market" argument that the westerners use when they condemn The LARGE Skiing Corporation for forcing out the locals.  Compared to 3 or 4 years ago, there is lots of housing available and the entry level stuff that needs some TLC is going for cheap.   You can get a mortage as a primary residence where nobody is writing paper for vacation homes.


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## bigbog (Apr 19, 2011)

drjeff said:


> You just gotta love the "do as I say, but don't expect ME to do it too" crowd that exists these days   :smash:


Sounds like he would be at home as a member of Congress...  but not knowing all the info..._bigbog_ exits the topic here...;-)


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## kingdom-tele (Apr 19, 2011)

Ridiculous.

The title could have easily just been - "tough to live not being surrounded by bright lights - census shows people look elsewhere to make a living"

could rural VT use more "professional" employers? of course. However, just building it doesn't insure they will come.  We've  watched numerous six figure earners leave for reasons other than finance , while the people I know  mixing jobs to get by don't leave. If your in a position to make a decent living and still decide to leave VT, or any other rural envoirnment for that matter, maybe blaming the economy isn't the best place to start

not everyone judges vitality based on how many starbucks are in the neighborhood


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## thetrailboss (Apr 19, 2011)

kingdom-tele said:


> Ridiculous.
> 
> The title could have easily just been - "tough to live not being surrounded by bright lights - census shows people look elsewhere to make a living"
> 
> ...


 
Well...that is not exactly what the point is, but I agree that the article might have been better written.  

What is happening is that the folks who would pay taxes and create jobs are leaving. Who is left behind is a population that have a need for more services, but can't pay for it. The same thing is happening in Maine. 

Unfortunately the policymakers are only hearing the folks who "need" services and help, and are not looking at who can help pay for those services or create jobs and grow the economy. So they add services, need more money, increase taxes and the cost of living, and more people have to leave.


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## kingdom-tele (Apr 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> What is happening is that the folks who would pay taxes and create jobs are leaving. Who is left behind is a population that have a need for more services, but can't pay for it. The same thing is happening in Maine.



Oh I get it, 30-40 hours a week I get to watch our healthcare system/state services at work.

While there certainly are "incentive" issues that need to be addressed, making that your reasoning for seeking another place to live just supports the idea that it is not entirely economical influencing the census

making 6 digits and kicking your foot in the dirt about how "the man" is robbing you to support that population that needs services is not exclusive to VT, ME, etc.

more people don't HAVE to leave. VT (rural New England) isn't for everyone.  Nor should it be.


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## thetrailboss (Apr 19, 2011)

kingdom-tele said:


> While there certainly are "incentive" issues that need to be addressed, making that your reasoning for seeking another place to live just supports the idea that it is not entirely economical influencing the census


 
Actually, it is all economics.  



> making 6 digits and kicking your foot in the dirt about how "the man" is robbing you to support that population that needs services is not exclusive to VT, ME, etc.


 
And we're not talking about six figure folks.  This issue reaches down to middle income folks and young professionals in particular who (a) have a lot of student debt, (b) don't own their own homes, and (c) are finding a weaker job market.  

I don't know you kingdom tele, but I grew up in Lyndon and the wide majority of my classmates at LI left because of lack of opportunity.  Many others would love to come back but can't afford to.  It is a real problem.


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## Riverskier (Apr 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> Well...that is not exactly what the point is, but I agree that the article might have been better written.
> 
> What is happening is that the folks who would pay taxes and create jobs are leaving. Who is left behind is a population that have a need for more services, but can't pay for it. The same thing is happening in Maine.
> 
> Unfortunately the policymakers are only hearing the folks who "need" services and help, and are not looking at who can help pay for those services or create jobs and grow the economy. So they add services, need more money, increase taxes and the cost of living, and more people have to leave.



Lets keep politics out of this trailboss....


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## AdironRider (Apr 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> Actually, it is all economics.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



This describes the fiancee and I to a T. Were both 25, have professional gigs in Jackson but would love to make it back East to be closer to family/more affordable cost of living. Home ownership is literally out of the question here in Jackson. 

That being said, Im an accountant, shes a reservations manager, two pretty solid gigs that can be found in a ski town, and theres nothing in VT for us. Im personally looking more in the NEK region, which is even tougher in some regards, but theres not much anywhere. Not that I'm complaining spending my days in Jackson, but I would love to own something rather than rent some craphole. Vermont has a lot of things going for it, but there's literally nothing out there for a young couple with degrees to make a go of it. Its tough when Wyoming has a better business climate than VT in the Northeast.


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## deadheadskier (Apr 19, 2011)

AdironRider said:


> This describes the fiancee and I to a T. Were both 25, have professional gigs in Jackson but would love to make it back East to be closer to family/more affordable cost of living. Home ownership is literally out of the question here in Jackson.
> 
> That being said, Im an accountant, shes a reservations manager, two pretty solid gigs that can be found in a ski town, and theres nothing in VT for us. Im personally looking more in the NEK region, which is even tougher in some regards, but theres not much anywhere. Not that I'm complaining spending my days in Jackson, but I would love to own something rather than rent some craphole. Vermont has a lot of things going for it, but there's literally nothing out there for a young couple with degrees to make a go of it. Its tough when Wyoming has a better business climate than VT in the Northeast.



thought you were looking for a restaurant manager gig on the seacoast?


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## dmc (Apr 19, 2011)

Riverskier said:


> Lets keep politics out of this trailboss....



lock it...


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## HowieT2 (Apr 19, 2011)

Couple of questions from a New Yorker.

I have heard complaints about the tax structure in VT from various perspectives.  But I have yet to meet a resident of any state who doesn't complain about taxes.  Florida, which has no income tax, is losing residents by the droves and it's economy is in shambles.  So what is it about the tax system in VT that is a problem other than the fact that no one likes taxes?

Isn't the rise in commodity prices in general,  and the demand for local and/or organic food, helping the VT economy  ?


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## thetrailboss (Apr 19, 2011)

HowieT2 said:


> Isn't the rise in commodity prices in general, and the demand for local and/or organic food, helping the VT economy ?


 
Not noticably.  Most farms are gone.  There are only small operations.


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## HowieT2 (Apr 19, 2011)

really?  when I'm in the MRV, I'm eating local this and local that.  and with rising prices, one would think more and more land would be put to use for agriculture.


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## deadheadskier (Apr 19, 2011)

HowieT2 said:


> Couple of questions from a New Yorker.
> 
> I have heard complaints about the tax structure in VT from various perspectives.  But I have yet to meet a resident of any state who doesn't complain about taxes.  Florida, which has no income tax, is losing residents by the droves and it's economy is in shambles.  So what is it about the tax system in VT that is a problem other than the fact that no one likes taxes?
> 
> Isn't the rise in commodity prices in general,  and the demand for local and/or organic food, helping the VT economy  ?



You'll never hear me complain about the taxes in NH.  Even the high property tax rates are worth it IMO given the lack of tax on everything else.



thetrailboss said:


> Not noticably.  Most farms are gone.  There are only small operations.



Disagree

VT is on the leading edge of the locavore movement in regards to Agriculture.  The cheese business didn't exist as we know it 20 years ago, even 10 years ago it wasn't nearly as good.  There are farms drastically increasing how much livestock they raise.  They are selling these products for a mint in Boston and no state in the nation has restaurants that buy as much of their product locally as VT now does.

The giant factory type farms are fewer in operation than there were many decades ago, but the artisan products and overall agricultural economy in VT is improving all the time.


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## AdironRider (Apr 19, 2011)

deadheadskier said:


> thought you were looking for a restaurant manager gig on the seacoast?




I was, but the fiancee wasn't having a good time finding a new career. Also, I got an offer to switch it up and go with the accounting route here in Jackson for a bit longer, which didnt hurt. 

Still looking eastward, but the timeframe is longer now. As I mentioned above, its pretty tough for a couple to move to a mountain town and find two decent gigs. I suppose we could start all over again, but that would throw 4-5 years of effort out the window. Tough sell without the right offer. 

Im also looking at the Adirondacks these days as well. Vermont looks ten times better than the ADK in terms of job opportunity though so Im not holding my breath.


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## deadheadskier (Apr 19, 2011)

very smart move to get out of F&B and into accounting.  Higher quality of life IMO.  Sure, you don't get to work nights and ski all day, but the other benefits far outweigh that IMO.


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## kingdom-tele (Apr 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> Not noticably.  Most farms are gone.  There are only small operations.



that can survive with support from the local community - but then again you run the risk of effecting your bottom line if thats your sole focus

where I come from doesn't matter at all.  there are sustainable industries in rural communities.  every region has essential services.  if you chose a profession that requires a larger population base to make your bottom line digestable than your right, rural VT, or rural anything won't cut it. I'm just sayin not every place needs to cater to whatever standards you might need. 

sometimes you make sacrifices to insure you wake up thankful everyday, if your not, move. it isn't to terribly complicated.


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## HowieT2 (Apr 19, 2011)

deadheadskier said:


> You'll never hear me complain about the taxes in NH.  Even the high property tax rates are worth it IMO given the lack of tax on everything else.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



NH population increased in the last decade, also.  Is that because of the tax situation or the proximity to Boston???


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## thetrailboss (Apr 19, 2011)

deadheadskier said:


> Disagree
> 
> VT is on the leading edge of the locavore movement in regards to Agriculture. The cheese business didn't exist as we know it 20 years ago, even 10 years ago it wasn't nearly as good. There are farms drastically increasing how much livestock they raise. They are selling these products for a mint in Boston and no state in the nation has restaurants that buy as much of their product locally as VT now does.
> 
> The giant factory type farms are fewer in operation than there were many decades ago, but the artisan products and overall agricultural economy in VT is improving all the time.


 
That is true that there is some good developments, but again, it is not really having a big impact on the overall economy and from what I have seen most farms are struggling...especially the dairy farms.


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## thetrailboss (Apr 19, 2011)

kingdom-tele said:


> there are sustainable industries in rural communities. every region has essential services.


 
THIS is my point. Given the demographics of Vermont, the way that services and infrastructure is financed is not sustainable.


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## dmc (Apr 19, 2011)

kingdom-tele said:


> sometimes you make sacrifices to insure you wake up thankful everyday, if your not, move. it isn't to terribly complicated.



Unless you own a house with a mortgage that's more then the houses worth...


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## deadheadskier (Apr 19, 2011)

HowieT2 said:


> NH population increased in the last decade, also.  Is that because of the tax situation or the proximity to Boston???



I'm not an expert on demographics, but I know I make most of my money in Boston and live in NH.  

Proximity to Boston certainly helps.  I assume the business climate in the state is pretty good as it appears many of the large employers around me continue to expand.  

Most of the growth in NH is along the seacoast, the 93 corridor and Upper Valley Dartmouth area though. If you looked at the parts of the state that rely heavily on tourism, I'm sure the picture is quite similar to that in VTs rural areas.


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## ski_resort_observer (Apr 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> Not noticably.  Most farms are gone.  There are only small operations.



Actually, it's the opposite. Vermont is producing more milk than it ever has........small farms are selling out to there neighbors or to corporations. With the continued low price for 100# you have have a big operation to make any kind of a profit in dairy. 

Many small farms are doing okay as they have gone to organic veggies, raising stock for meat, cheese, maple syrup or honey. Maple syrup production has gone thru the roof the last few years. Last year it was 890,000 gallons, 500/600,000 has been the average for several decades. The number of cheesemakers in Vermont has greatly increased the last 5 years.

A couple of months ago there was an fascinating series on Vermont PBS about the economic history of Vermont. Until the interstates were built Vermont was an economic backwater, no one wanted to come and most Vermonters wanted to leave but were too poor. 

During the Great Depression Vermonters faired surprisingly well as many were self sufficient. One interview that was interesting was with some farmers and they told how they saw in newspapers people selling apples in NYC to get by. Vermont farmers had so many apples they tried to figure a way to send them down to NYC but unfortunately no such transportation was available. Many Vermonters who were in manufacturing faired worse but still got by on the generousity of their neighbors. 

You can argue that the interstates were the lynchpin that produced the high COL, low wages have been apart of Vermont for many many years whether it be from farming or working at a ski resort. Chitt County is the economic engine of the state accounting for over 60% of the state's GNP. 

Every large ski resort does have professional level positions. My neighbor left a few years ago to find better pay and COL, she returned a few months ago and snagged an accountant position, her husband got an IT position at the same ski resort. There are not alot of them but there are professional jobs out in Vermont but the competition is stiff.

Back to the article I agree with most that it has to be taken with a Mt Everest size grain of salt. Just a quick check of the 2010 census vs 2000 of ski towns in Vermont showed a diferent story.

Wilmington - down 18%
Killiington - down 26%
Stowe - virtually the same
Waitsfield - up 4%
Ludlow - up 104%  I double checked this one


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## kingdom-tele (Apr 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> THIS is my point. Given the demographics of Vermont, the way that services and infrastructure is financed is not sustainable.



solve that one Boss and I think a lot people would vote for you - good luck:smile:

and to think the bartering system wasn't good enough


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## thetrailboss (Apr 19, 2011)

kingdom-tele said:


> solve that one Boss and I think a lot people would vote for you - good luck:smile:
> 
> and to think the bartering system wasn't good enough


 
Thanks.    There is no silver bullet really, but having a diverse demographic base with a good sized middle and upper class of younger folks with homes that they own, kids, good jobs, etc. help because they pay into the system to support the services for those less fortunate and the infrastructure.  When you push out these folks you have less to support the system.


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## x10003q (Apr 19, 2011)

HowieT2 said:


> Couple of questions from a New Yorker.
> 
> I have heard complaints about the tax structure in VT from various perspectives.  But I have yet to meet a resident of any state who doesn't complain about taxes.  Florida, which has no income tax, is losing residents by the droves and it's economy is in shambles.  So what is it about the tax system in VT that is a problem other than the fact that no one likes taxes?


A childhood friend with his parents and sister bought a good size townhouse at the base of Stratton in the mid 1980s. They were not wealthy but with 4 incomes thay made the place work. The idea was the parents would retire to this place. The place never broke even but it did increase in value. They were very generous with friends and family and I was there quite a bit. By the 1990s the property taxes were about $4000/yr mostly for the handful of school kids in Stratton. After Act 60 the taxes eventually got up to about $24,000/yr. Since the parents could not retire yet they sold the place. They made a lot of $$ on the sale but they really wanted to end up in Stratton. The rules on property tax are different if you are a resident of VT, but I think there are a lot of variation based on income and property size/type. 

The property tax hammers out of state homeowners who have no say in the government of VT. The theory that if you can afford a 2nd home you must be rich is flawed. I am sure that this is a factor in the ski area towns losing population.


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## riverc0il (Apr 19, 2011)

witch hobble said:


> Hold on now, they put quotes around five of his words, not even a full sentence.  It could easily be out of context. It does sound suspiciously conservative.


I did notice that after I made my post. This is fair criticism against both the media and my post. I may just be biased against McKibben and just took the bait on this one due to prior disposition (for the record, I consider myself pretty damn pro-environment even though I don't care for McKibben).


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## riverc0il (Apr 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> As a Midd alum I have been very unhappy with his attitude and what he has said. He lives in Ripton, about 10 miles from the campus, and yet he lectures folks on living local, not commuting, etc. Unless he bikes to campus everyday OR works from home he is part of the problem.  His elitest attitude and arrogance takes away from the work he has been trying to do IMHO.


Additionally, I always raise an eye brow when these types of comments come from folks that are not from Vermont. It doesn't make his view point any less valid that he was raise in MA and lived in NYC (as I recall?). But you definitely need to be careful when you move into a rural community and start dictating how things ought to be... you come from a completely different perspective than those you are saying "ought" to. VT is no stranger to that issue, though. I stopped saying "ought" when I moved to VT. Instead I decided to either take it or leave it.


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## riverc0il (Apr 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> Well...that is not exactly what the point is, but I agree that the article might have been better written.
> 
> What is happening is that the folks who would pay taxes and create jobs are leaving. Who is left behind is a population that have a need for more services, but can't pay for it. The same thing is happening in Maine.
> 
> Unfortunately the policymakers are only hearing the folks who "need" services and help, and are not looking at who can help pay for those services or create jobs and grow the economy. So they add services, need more money, increase taxes and the cost of living, and more people have to leave.


NH did something interesting with pushing through legislation that helped college students pay for loans if they stayed and worked in NH for a certain amount of time after graduating. I don't remember the details. It was an interesting idea. I don't know how it works in practice, though. Most folks probably just locate themselves in Manchester, Portsmouth, or along the boarder of MA which really isn't helping the areas that really need business expansion and revenue generation. 

The bottom line is live by, die by. And this is especially true in rural areas. If communities live and die by specific tourism and natural resources, they will be impacted when those sources of revenue dry out. This is happening in Berlin, NH with all the mills closing. What are folks left to do? Adapt (often with a standard of living change or quality of life change) or move. Sucks but thems the breaks.


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## riverc0il (Apr 19, 2011)

deadheadskier said:


> Disagree.
> 
> VT is on the leading edge of the locavore movement in regards to Agriculture.


One interesting note is how this happened. Poor farmers that owed huge amounts of money on having to buy the latest equipment to be competitive were beginning to sell off their farms in parcels. There was some sorta group that came along and paid em' off to keep their farms running. I can't remember the details. Reverse mortgage of some sort perhaps? Someone help me out here. Bottom line is that VT's farms on the rebound was calculated and not due to the farmers economic success but rather a conscious decision to save and preserve that aspect of the Vermont landscape and economic picture. 



HowieT2 said:


> NH population increased in the last decade, also.  Is that because of the tax situation or the proximity to Boston???





deadheadskier said:


> I'm not an expert on demographics, but I know I make most of my money in Boston and live in NH.
> 
> Proximity to Boston certainly helps.  I assume the business climate in the state is pretty good as it appears many of the large employers around me continue to expand.
> 
> Most of the growth in NH is along the seacoast, the 93 corridor and Upper Valley Dartmouth area though. If you looked at the parts of the state that rely heavily on tourism, I'm sure the picture is quite similar to that in VTs rural areas.


Having lived on the MA side of a NH/MA boarder town, NH is a very attractive option for MA residents as a commutable location to MA work force centers without the sprawl. There are (were perhaps? SoNH has kinda sprawled in a way itself) lots of small NH towns with quiet lots much cheaper than MA but yet just a short distance from the boarder. You get the double whack on MA income tax and NH land tax but still a nicer option for many folks. 

You don't see that type of population growth north of Concord, though. Maybe a tiny bit of population growth in Laconia due to all the old motels being converted into condos. Though a lot of that could be second home and vacation property. I don't have hard numbers, but I can't believe it could be any other way: the NH population growth is primarily south of Route 101.


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## ski_resort_observer (Apr 19, 2011)

I checked a few other Vermont ski towns and again it did not back up the articles theme that all ski towns in Vermont lost population.

Bondville/Winhall(Stratton) - up 12%
Troy(Jay) - up 6%
londonderry(Magic) - up 4%

conclusion - most Vermont ski towns gained population from the 2010 census vs 2000. Killington and Wilmington large losses do account for a sizable chunk but Ludlow's 104% gain was more than surprising. Not that it went up but the number being so high.


----------



## UVSHTSTRM (Apr 19, 2011)

deadheadskier said:


> You'll never hear me complain about the taxes in NH.  Even the high property tax rates are worth it IMO given the lack of tax on everything else.
> QUOTE]
> 
> I will complain though!  Granted I live in Claremont, NH, which not only is a poor town, it also has some of the highest property taxes in the state.....actually I think it is the highest.  Although my bitching is tempered by the fact that housing prices are so cheap.  Nothing like having a town of 13000 with no real industry to help foot the bill!  Can't complain, beer is cheap and live within and 1-1.5 hours drive of numerous ski hills and resorts.
> ...


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## deadheadskier (Apr 20, 2011)

UVSHTSTRM said:


> deadheadskier said:
> 
> 
> > You'll never hear me complain about the taxes in NH.  Even the high property tax rates are worth it IMO given the lack of tax on everything else.
> ...


----------



## drjeff (Apr 20, 2011)

ski_resort_observer said:


> I checked a few other Vermont ski towns and again it did not back up the articles theme that all ski towns in Vermont lost population.
> 
> Bondville/Winhall(Stratton) - up 12%
> Troy(Jay) - up 6%
> ...



But the article was talking about younger people, not overall population.  And that's a key distinction with the data you presented.  I know for a fact that in the complex that my place is in in West Dover, that there have been atleast 5 retired couples that have moved in, fulltime, in the last couple of years.  I think it's fairly safe to say that with the exception of maybe being a parttime ski ambassdaor at Mount Snow, those people won't be adding to the year round work force in the area.  Now if you have 5 couples in their 20's moving in, presumably atleast 1/2 of each couple, if not both, will be adding to the work force


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## thetrailboss (Apr 20, 2011)

drjeff said:


> But the article was talking about younger people, not overall population. And that's a key distinction with the data you presented. I know for a fact that in the complex that my place is in in West Dover, that there have been atleast 5 retired couples that have moved in, fulltime, in the last couple of years. I think it's fairly safe to say that with the exception of maybe being a parttime ski ambassdaor at Mount Snow, those people won't be adding to the year round work force in the area. Now if you have 4 couples in their 20's moving in, presumably atleast 1/2 of each couple, if not both, will be adding to the work force


 
+ 1.  Additionally, places like "Troy" are not ski towns.


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## ski_resort_observer (Apr 20, 2011)

TB...Well, a couple of friends who work at Jay live in Troy and they consider it a ski town. What town would you say would be the ski town for Jay Peak? 

In my view the article is about the economy of Vermont ski towns. Even tho Mt Snow is in the town of Dover, Wilmington is the ski town. As far as the demographics retired folks are a win-win from that perspective. As you mentioned they don't take jobs but provide a tax base, use and pay for local services and is a postive for the local economy, not a negetive. BTW, I work with a guy who is 81 and skis 80 days a season. He is an exception but a very cool one.

Vermont has been losing  their young people for decades, some do come back tho. I don't see how one can say it's specific to the Vermont ski industry. It's pretty much across the board of all industries. 

As I mentioned in my other posts, Vermont has had low wages and a high COL for many years. I don't know the population gains or losses for the specific age group mentioned, in the other ski towns of Vermont. If you do I would love to see them.  I do feel that Act 250 plays a role in this trend. I don't think Act 60/68 is a big deal. Many states use the revenue from property taxes to fund education and almost all second home owners in those states do not have kids in the local school system. I would think that when someone buys a second/vacation home they are aware of the property taxes before they sign on the dotted line. 

Specific to Mt Snow most everyone knows that their skier visits dropped severly during the last few years under ASC.s ownership. IMHO had little to do with Vermont's economy as other resorts in Vermont had increases. The state's skier visit's has remained pretty constant, around 4m, for the last few years tho down from the 5m of years past.  It's going to be interesting when Peak completes their IPO process which they recently announced.


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## thetrailboss (Apr 20, 2011)

ski_resort_observer said:


> TB...Well, a couple of friends who work at Jay live in Troy and they consider it a ski town. What town would you say would be the ski town for Jay Peak?


 
Jay if anything. 

But there is a huge difference between what the article considers "Ski Towns," such as Killington and Stowe, and towns that are located near ski areas, such as Troy or Jay.


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## ski_resort_observer (Apr 20, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> Jay if anything.
> 
> But there is a huge difference between what the article considers "Ski Towns," such as Killington and Stowe, and towns that are located near ski areas, such as Troy or Jay.



Yup, Jay is closer so you have a point. Stowe, Troy or Jay aren't mentioned in the article.

To Dr Jeff's comment..... from the article

"Battered by a collapse in the second-home market and a slow tourist economy, residents fled southern Vermont’s ski region from 2000 to 2010, census figures show. Three other resort towns -- Killington, Ludlow and Wilmington -- collectively lost 1,119 residents, or 19.4 percent of their population, even as the state gained 2.8 percent to 625,741. "

The only mention of a specific age demographic in the article is regarding the Dover Elementary school. 

Since Ludlow experienced a huge population increase 2010 vs 2000 census the above quote is totally misleading.


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## drjeff (Apr 20, 2011)

ski_resort_observer said:


> Yup, Jay is closer so you have a point. Stowe, Troy or Jay aren't mentioned in the article.
> 
> To Dr Jeff's comment..... from the article
> 
> ...



Statistics are such an awesome thing, since depending on what point one is trying to make, chances are you can use atleast some of one's data when viewed from a certain perspective to make them say what you'd like them too!  :lol:  :lol:


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## deadheadskier (Apr 20, 2011)

ski_resort_observer said:


> Since Ludlow experienced a huge population increase 2010 vs 2000 census the above quote is totally misleading.



what are the figures on Ludlow's population increase?


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## Black Phantom (Apr 20, 2011)

I guess we are free to discuss politics on the board now, as this is clearly the most political thread going?


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## from_the_NEK (Apr 20, 2011)

Black Phantom said:


> I guess we are free to discuss politics on the board now, as this is clearly the most political thread going?



I wouldn't say this has turned blatently political. Sure there has been some tax policy topics thrown in but it definitely hasn't turned into a political party mudslingfest. There is some good conversation going on here. :beer:


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## drjeff (Apr 20, 2011)

from_the_NEK said:


> I wouldn't say this has turned blatently political. Sure there has been some tax policy topics thrown in but it definitely hasn't turned into a political party mudslingfest. There is some good conversation going on here. :beer:



Agree.  I think while there has been some tax discussion(inevitable this time of year  :lol: ), there's been more discussion about demographics of a population, with an occasional side of bashing of an academic thrown in  :lol:


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## ski_resort_observer (Apr 20, 2011)

drjeff said:


> with an occasional side of bashing of an academic thrown in  :lol:



Not from me... I think it was from that future member of the Beehive State and others. :lol: Seriously tho I think that everyone I know agrees that Mt Snow is on the upswing since Peak bought it. Since your a mega supporter, are you going to be buying a few shares when the IPO goes public?


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## ski_resort_observer (Apr 20, 2011)

> what are the figures on Ludlow's population increase?





ski_resort_observer said:


> Back to the article I agree with most that it has to be taken with a Mt Everest size grain of salt. Just a quick check of the 2010 census vs 2000 of ski towns in Vermont showed a diferent story.
> 
> Wilmington - down 18%
> Killiington - down 26%
> ...


  :wink:


----------



## deadheadskier (Apr 20, 2011)

ski_resort_observer said:


> :wink:



that's official census increase?

They must have incorporated outside villages like Mt. Holly, Tyson and Proctorsville into the new data.  I certainly haven't seen an increase in housing units in Ludlow over the past ten years that would suggest the population has grown 100%.  I'm a frequent visitor in the summer months as my retired parents spend their summers there.  If anything the town seems more quiet these days than it did ten years ago.


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## drjeff (Apr 20, 2011)

ski_resort_observer said:


> Not from me... I think it was from that future member of the Beehive State and others. :lol: Seriously tho I think that everyone I know agrees that Mt Snow is on the upswing since Peak bought it. Since your a mega supporter, are you going to be buying a few shares when the IPO goes public?



I'll have to look over the prospectus a bit before I decide "yes" or "no" on purchase for my personal portfolio.  I'll probably buy a share or two each for my kids, as a bit of a learning experience for them on how stocks work.  Might be kind of fun to tell them that they "own" a little part of the mountain (like maybe the equivalent of the ketchup dispenser in the base lodge  :lol: )


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## HowieT2 (Apr 20, 2011)

I understand that condo/coop taxes for non residents are high.  But I don't see how that would discourage people, especially young people from living in VT.

I think the population loss in Killington and Dover has more to do with local issues than any statewide tax policy.


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## billski (Apr 20, 2011)

*Working Poor*

I read through this thread and appreciate the diversity of perspective.  I also recognize the focus was primarily about ski towns.  That said, a couple of things did not appear to be discussed.

First, Vermont has a great number of "working poor."  They make enough money to be narrowly above the welfare line.  

Have you every seen a trailer park in VT?  There are many of them, you just have to know where they are.  They don't look like the urban parks, and they are hidden away in the bucolic hills, down dirt roads on small parcels.  These people, as a group have educations not above high school, some less.  They don't have  a lot of choices (just as in a prosperous urban area.)  They eck out a living by working at the local restaurant, working for the town (no pension, no benefits), they build fences, chop wood, the list goes on.  None of this work is stable or predictable.  There are a lot of young parents with children.  They go to the local school, can't afford to get out and travel much.  

Even the low-wage jobs of the past have been stolen away from the locals from them thanks to H1-B visas.  

There are other working poor who own property, and try to eck out a living from what they have.  Their property often looks like a junkyard full of broken down cars, scrap metals, stacks of wood.  I know one small farmer who has about five different types of jobs just to make it.  He has a beautiful sugar shack that they state won't let him use because it used lead to seal the seams.  It would cost him $10K to replace all the equipment.  Or the farmer who has ten head of cattle that the state has significantly restricted his ability to butcher and sell meat.  

Many people who inherit property find the estate is hit by steep estate tax and often need to sell most of it because they cannot afford it financially.  Old-timers often get tax abatements.  Yeah, that's true all over the country and year, it hurts.  It hurts more for the working poor who really find themselves backed into a corner.

Move?  I suppose so, and some do, but to where?  Claremont, NH?  Definitely not the Burlington 'burbs."

Granted this only one perspective.  One person I know who has generations of family in Vermont has discussed this many times with me.  "That's they way a lot of Vermont is.  They just invisible,"  I think this is changing all over.

I would be much more interested in seeing demographics of Vermont when the "resort" academic and other affluent towns towns have been excluded.


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## HowieT2 (Apr 20, 2011)

billski said:


> I read through this thread and appreciate the diversity of perspective.  I also recognize the focus was primarily about ski towns.  That said, a couple of things did not appear to be discussed.
> 
> First, Vermont has a great number of "working poor."  They make enough money to be narrowly above the welfare line.
> 
> ...



What are you talking about with respect to H1-B visas taking local jobs?


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## Geoff (Apr 21, 2011)

HowieT2 said:


> What are you talking about with respect to H1-B visas taking local jobs?



They're actually J1 visas (full time college student or within 6 months of graduation) and H-2B visas (nonagricultural  temporary seasonal work).


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## riverc0il (Apr 21, 2011)

ski_resort_observer said:


> TB...Well, a couple of friends who work at Jay live in Troy and they consider it a ski town. What town would you say would be the ski town for Jay Peak?


Jay and Montgomery are Jay's ski towns, depending upon which side of 242 you come from (and everyone pretty much only ever comes from one side or the other). If you include Troy as a ski town, you'll need to include every place two towns removed from any ski area, so you'd have every ski area having 5 or 6 ski towns.


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## kingdom-tele (Apr 21, 2011)

billski said:


> I read through this thread and appreciate the diversity of perspective.  I also recognize the focus was primarily about ski towns.  That said, a couple of things did not appear to be discussed.
> 
> First, Vermont has a great number of "working poor."  They make enough money to be narrowly above the welfare line.
> 
> ...



While that is a good synopsis Bill and all very true and largely the standard, especially here in the NEK, its not impossible to create a niche and have a fruitful lifestyle.  IMO, its just different from the standard a lot of people associate with success and happiness.  Not everyones dream is to live rurally or have to work multiple jobs throughout the year to meet your budget or build the "nest egg"

Saying the drop in ski town census is indicative of current trends in sensationalist, people have been leaving rural areas forever because opportunity is larger where there is a larger population, even professional positions in rural areas come with trade offs compared to urban centers.

People come and go up here because those trade offs aren't meant for everyone. Measuring a lifestyle by bank account numbers isn't something everyone is interested in doing.


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## witch hobble (Apr 21, 2011)

riverc0il said:


> I did notice that after I made my post. This is fair criticism against both the media and my post. I may just be biased against McKibben and just took the bait on this one due to prior disposition (for the record, I consider myself pretty damn pro-environment even though I don't care for McKibben).



It was meant to criticize the article more than anything else.  I admit to not really having read all that much Bill McKibben.


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## ski_resort_observer (Apr 21, 2011)

Geoff said:


> They're actually J1 visas (full time college student or within 6 months of graduation) and H-2B visas (nonagricultural  temporary seasonal work).



Congress has greatly reduced these workers, not a big issue in Vermont but the resorts on the Maine coast had problems. These programs do not take local jobs as the programs were used cause there is not a big enough local labor pool to fill the hundreds of jobs the ski resorts need on a seasonal basis.


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## witch hobble (Apr 21, 2011)

deadheadskier said:


> that's official census increase?
> 
> They must have incorporated outside villages like Mt. Holly, Tyson and Proctorsville into the new data.  I certainly haven't seen an increase in housing units in Ludlow over the past ten years that would suggest the population has grown 100%.  I'm a frequent visitor in the summer months as my retired parents spend their summers there.  If anything the town seems more quiet these days than it did ten years ago.



Mt. Holly is it's own town.  Proctorsville is part of Cavendish.

The number is definitely out of whack, but remember that Okemo has grown A LOT since 2000.  I'm sure some of it is Boomers retiring to their ski home.  But with the golf course having expanded and coming under the Mueller's operation, and Jackson Gore.  Shit, Okemo's marketing department probably grew 500% during the time.

It would be interesting to see the % of people who list Okemo as their employer and how much that grew over the same time period.


----------



## witch hobble (Apr 21, 2011)

billski said:


> Even the low-wage jobs of the past have been stolen away from the locals from them thanks to H1-B visas.



It is H2b visas that are for the low wage temporary foreign employees.  And while a better, healthier (for the state or municipality, not ski reort's bottom line) option would be a real living wage for resort employees, the realitiy is that these jobs were hardly "stolen away" from the locals.  The ambivalence was generally mutual, and 7 bucks an hour to bump chairs, wipe down cafeteria tables, or clean linens is likely not worth drawing a line in the sand over.


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## HowieT2 (Apr 21, 2011)

ski_resort_observer said:


> Congress has greatly reduced these workers, not a big issue in Vermont but the resorts on the Maine coast had problems. These programs do not take local jobs as the programs were used cause there is not a big enough local labor pool to fill the hundreds of jobs the ski resorts need on a seasonal basis.



I think that's correct.  Why would the ski resort hire foreign workers if there are local ones to do the same job for the same pay.  That being said, I did notice this past season after sugarbush utilized the visa investment program to construct the 2 new lodges, that the checkout employees in the cafeteria were 100% local, whereas in the past there were definitely some kids from south america.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 25, 2011)

deadheadskier said:


> *Minimal opportunity for young professionals in most of Vermont.  Combine that with a high cost of living compared with earnings and well, it's no surprise the population is declining in many areas.*
> 
> Heck, I found it hard in Chittenden County, where there is the most opportunity in the state.



My gf and her brother are a perfect example.  Relatively recent grads of 2 different VT colleges. She's a teacher and would have been looking at $25,000 even in Chitt, now she lives in Jersey and makes $56,000.  Her brother left VT for the west coast for similar reasons.   And as you said, it's not just salary, BUT cost of living as well.  Low salaries + High taxes do not make for an easy existence.  FWIW, they both still love VT and are proud to be from their state, but they made the decision to not spend their life pushing a boulder uphill, which IMO is often what life in VT becomes for many.  And their story is not that unusual as they tell me that a bizarrely high percentage of people from their high school graduating classes have fled to other states as well.




thetrailboss said:


> As a Midd alum I have been very unhappy with his attitude and what he has said. He lives in Ripton, about 10 miles from the campus, and yet he lectures folks on living local, not commuting, etc. Unless he bikes to campus everyday OR works from home he is part of the problem.  His elitest attitude and arrogance takes away from the work he has been trying to do IMHO.



Not surprising.  This "climate change" stuff has grown to become at least as analogous with a religion or a lifestyle than to a scientific field.   I'll put money on him owning a great big home in Ripton rather than the "earth friendly" spartan abode I'm sure he'd likely tell others to live in.


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## witch hobble (Apr 27, 2011)

BenedictGomez said:


> This "climate change" stuff has grown to become at least as analogous with a religion or a lifestyle than to a scientific field.



Couldn't the same be said of the much larger portion of the population that believes that, as Americans, we should be able to, inexpensively, fill our inefficient cars and furnaces with fossil fuels?  And that coal fired power plants will forever be able to power our insatiable appetite for new electronic devices?  And who don't give too much thought to the environmental damage that occurs from Appalachia to N. Africa and the foreign wars being waged in our names?:uzi:


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## thetrailboss (Apr 27, 2011)

BenedictGomez said:


> My gf and her brother are a perfect example. Relatively recent grads of 2 different VT colleges. She's a teacher and would have been looking at $25,000 even in Chitt, now she lives in Jersey and makes $56,000. Her brother left VT for the west coast for similar reasons. And as you said, it's not just salary, BUT cost of living as well. Low salaries + High taxes do not make for an easy existence. FWIW, they both still love VT and are proud to be from their state, but they made the decision to not spend their life pushing a boulder uphill, which IMO is often what life in VT becomes for many. And their story is not that unusual as they tell me that a bizarrely high percentage of people from their high school graduating classes have fled to other states as well.


 
+ 1.


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## nelsapbm (Apr 27, 2011)

My husband and I are both Vermont natives and are lucky that we have been able to carve out a nice living here. I left Vermont after college but came back and got a good job. Husband got a GREAT job right out of UVM and has had a great career - still with the same company almost 20 years later. Could we both make more money if we left Vermont? Sure...but thats not what its about for us. We love it here.
That said, we're in the minority. We have a small group of friends our age here but the population is mostly older. Some of our friends we grew up with that left Vermont have come back and were able to secure good jobs and/or take over the family business, but again, those numbers are small.
Vermont is a small state meaning we have a very small economy. Lots of NIMBYism (esp from newcomers who just want to shut the door behind them) make it hard for development to happen. Plus the tax structure doesn't help either. Hence, we have a heavily based tourist economy.
One can succeed here...it's a big luck, having a nest egg, having connections, and having to give up some luxuries/conveniences of living in a more urban environment. Wow..that was a ramble!


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## kingdom-tele (Apr 27, 2011)

nelsapbm said:


> Could we both make more money if we left Vermont? Sure...but thats not what its about for us. We love it here.
> 
> One can succeed here...it's having to give up some luxuries/conveniences of living in a more urban environment.



QFT.

what you give up in urban luxuries you get back ten fold in natural luxuries.  those things have to mean as much to your life than the salary numbers IMO


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## riverc0il (Apr 27, 2011)

kingdom-tele said:


> QFT.


Partially quoted and somewhat out of context as well.


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## thetrailboss (Apr 27, 2011)

riverc0il said:


> Partially quoted and somewhat out of context as well.


 
+ 1.  One hell of a redaction there...


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## thetrailboss (May 19, 2011)

deadheadskier said:


> Disagree
> 
> VT is on the leading edge of the locavore movement in regards to Agriculture. The cheese business didn't exist as we know it 20 years ago, even 10 years ago it wasn't nearly as good. There are farms drastically increasing how much livestock they raise. They are selling these products for a mint in Boston and no state in the nation has restaurants that buy as much of their product locally as VT now does.
> 
> The giant factory type farms are fewer in operation than there were many decades ago, but the artisan products and overall agricultural economy in VT is improving all the time.


 
To follow up on this point:

Yesterday was a sad milestone for Vermont.  That was the day that Vermont *went below 1,000 dairy farms in the state.*  I know some have said that there has been a resurgence, but this does not appear to be the case.


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## Morwax (May 19, 2011)

*Article*

Just gave it a quick read so maybe I missed it. Seems as though they left out the most important fact that real estate values on second homes in ski towns skyrocketed between 2000 and 2010. Of course more full time residents would have left town or just moved away from the resort towns as they can not afford to live there anymore. my 2 cents


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## deadheadskier (May 19, 2011)

I'd be interested to see how many more Goat and Sheep farmers there are today in VT over a decade ago. 

The movement is towards artisan cheese and Goat and Sheeps milk cheeses generally fetch more money than cows while requiring less land. 

I know for a fact that far more pigs, beef cattle and chickens are raised in Vermont today than ten years ago.  Ten years ago getting VT raised meats was nearly impossible for chefs.  Today, you see it in almost every fine dining restaurant in the state and beyond.  Misty Knolls Poultry was only started in 1985 and is one of the large poultry operations in the Northeast today.   Vermont Quality Meats was started in 2000, now chefs in Boston and NYC literally get into bidding wars for the products they source from VT farms.    

Like I said.  Fewer mega farms, but artisan farming in VT is definitely on the rise.  

You can't make a claim that agriculture is dying just because one segment such as milk farming, has been on the decline.  Farmers are adapting and shifting towards ways to make more money.


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## HowieT2 (May 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> To follow up on this point:
> 
> Yesterday was a sad milestone for Vermont.  That was the day that Vermont *went below 1,000 dairy farms in the state.*  I know some have said that there has been a resurgence, but this does not appear to be the case.



A quick read of the article indicates that it does not necessarily support your position.  First of all, the farm is closing because the proprietor is retiring and not because they weren't making money.  More significantly, the article indicates that while the number of dairy farms has decreased, production has increased significantly.  "While the number of dairy farms in Vermont have plummeted from more than 11,000 in the 1950s, production has climbed by more than half a billion pounds."


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## thetrailboss (May 19, 2011)

HowieT2 said:


> A quick read of the article indicates that it does not necessarily support your position. First of all, the farm is closing because the proprietor is retiring and not because they weren't making money. More significantly, the article indicates that while the number of dairy farms has decreased, production has increased significantly. "While the number of dairy farms in Vermont have plummeted from more than 11,000 in the 1950s, production has climbed by more than half a billion pounds."


 
But that's the point.  Fewer farms are out there and more and more are disappearing.


----------



## HowieT2 (May 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> But that's the point.  Fewer farms are out there and more and more are disappearing.



That may be the point of the article, but fewer farms does not necessarily mean less farm related employment.  despite the drop in the number of farms, production and therefore sales have increased.  The farms may not be "disappearing" but consolidating into larger operations.


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## from_the_NEK (May 19, 2011)

HowieT2 said:


> That may be the point of the article, but fewer farms does not necessarily mean less farm related employment.  despite the drop in the number of farms, production and therefore sales have increased.  The farms may not be "disappearing" but consolidating into larger operations.



This is currenlty the trend in many other types of farming right now as well. Many of the small guy crop farmers in the mid-west are retiring and their land is immediately snagged up by huge farms that work thousands of acres vs the 2-3 hundred of the small old guys. The big guys often employ newer technologies that make farming more efficient and require less "people" to do the work. Thus less people overall employed in the profession. On another note, I do know that some of the local dairy farms around here have resorted to hiring migrant workers since thye can't seem to find reliable local help :roll: .


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## thetrailboss (May 19, 2011)

HowieT2 said:


> That may be the point of the article, but fewer farms does not necessarily mean less farm related employment. despite the drop in the number of farms, production and therefore sales have increased. The farms may not be "disappearing" but consolidating into larger operations.


 
The idyllic Vermont farm that everyone loves, however, they suggest is fading away.  And by and large it is.


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## HowieT2 (May 19, 2011)

from_the_NEK said:


> This is currenlty the trend in many other types of farming right now as well. Many of the small guy crop farmers in the mid-west are retiring and their land is immediately snagged up by huge farms that work thousands of acres vs the 2-3 hundred of the small old guys. The big guys often employ newer technologies that make farming more efficient and require less "people" to do the work. Thus less people overall employed in the profession. On another note, I do know that some of the local dairy farms around here have resorted to hiring migrant workers since thye can't seem to find reliable local help :roll: .



It may be that there are fewer jobs in dairy farming , but that article is not evidence of that.  The latter observation, that dairy farms have had to turn to migrant labor to fill gaps in the labor pool, indicates that there is an oversupply of jobs available although not jobs that vermont residents want.  Either way, the article does not support the position that people are leaving VT because there are fewer jobs available in the dairy industry.


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## HowieT2 (May 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> The idyllic Vermont farm that everyone loves, however, they suggest is fading away.  And by and large it is.



no argument with that.  time marches on.


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## thetrailboss (May 19, 2011)

HowieT2 said:


> Either way, the article does not support the position that people are leaving VT because there are fewer jobs available in the dairy industry.


 
That is not my point.  The point is that folks were saying that farming was doing well in Vermont.  It is a very tough business.


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## HowieT2 (May 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> That is not my point.  The point is that folks were saying that farming was doing well in Vermont.  It is a very tough business.



I didn't mean to put words in your mouth, so excuse me.  But, I think this thread was a discussion of the loss of residents in VT in general and in particular in certain ski towns.  While dairy farming may be a tough business, what business isn't (aside from financial services)?  to date, there hasn't been any evidence presented in this thread, that employment opportunities in dairy farming have decreased and therefore people have been forced to move out of VT.


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## thetrailboss (May 19, 2011)

HowieT2 said:


> I didn't mean to put words in your mouth, so excuse me. But, I think this thread was a discussion of the loss of residents in VT in general and in particular in certain ski towns. While dairy farming may be a tough business, what business isn't (aside from financial services)? to date, there hasn't been any evidence presented in this thread, that employment opportunities in dairy farming have decreased and therefore people have been forced to move out of VT.


 
Thanks.  I just was not making that specific point.  But in terms of the larger context the loss of local farms is a crucial piece of  understanding the situation because this segment of Vermont's economy is struggling (with some exceptions as discussed).


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## from_the_NEK (May 19, 2011)

HowieT2 said:


> The latter observation, that dairy farms have had to turn to migrant labor to fill gaps in the labor pool, indicates that there is an oversupply of jobs available although not jobs that vermont residents want.



:lol: Hahaha an "oversupply of jobs" in the NEK (which is where my migrant worker example is from) is hilarious. In this part of VT (NEK/Caledonia, Essex, Orleans Counties) the unemploment rate is higher than the more populous parts of the state ( http://www.vtlmi.info/couur.htm ) and the the poverty rate is high as well. A lot of the younger crowd that used to work on these farms either move away to find something easier to do or don't want to work (and leach off the system) Vermont Poverty Stats.
And the move away part is the focus here.


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## deadheadskier (May 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> That is not my point.  The point is that folks were saying that farming was doing well in Vermont.  It is a very tough business.



I guess my perspective is just different.  Who I work for deals pretty much exclusively with small coops of family farms.  None in New England as there aren't large enough coops to meet our demand as we're a national company.  The amount of competition my business faces from Vermont raised meats has tripled over the past 4 years in Boston.  The amount of our products that we sell in VT has decreased by 50% in the past 4 years because of what is now available for purchase locally that was not just 4 years ago.  

A good friend from High School left his investment banking job in NYC two years ago to come back to VT and invest in Holton Farms and they've nearly doubled their acreage.  He's making a killing selling his product in NYC.  

I fully expect VT agriculture to be an improving part of the state's economy.  I live it, and see it every single day in the market.


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## from_the_NEK (May 19, 2011)

deadheadskier said:


> I fully expect VT agriculture to be an improving part of the state's economy.  I live it, and see it every single day in the market.



I agree with this. I think the "boutique farm" is going to quickly become the main $$ generator in VT agiculture. The interesting thing is that it is going to be driven primairly by "flatlanders"  :smile: who recognize the financial opportunity and have the resources already available to start their farms. Just look at these guys ( Jasper Hill Farm) ). Not the life/education path your _historically_ typical VT farmer has followed.


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## thetrailboss (May 19, 2011)

from_the_NEK said:


> I agree with this. I think the "boutique farm" is going to quickly become the main $$ generator in VT agiculture. The interesting thing is that it is going to be driven primairly by "flatlanders" :smile: who recognize the financial opportunity and have the resources already available to start their farms. Just look at these guys ( Jasper Hill Farm) ). Not the life/education path your _historically_ typical VT farmer has followed.


 
You're right. Yes, "boutique" farms are on the rise, but I feel uneasy with someone saying, "my millionaire friend came to Vermont, bought a ton of land, and is making a killing as a Gentleman farmer." That phenomenon really hurts the locals who live here and see property values increase because folks who come from outside have not just the money but the expectation of paying inflated amounts for land.  It ends up pushing lower and middle class folks out.

Just my feeling. That and 75 cents buys you a cup of coffee.


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## from_the_NEK (May 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> You're right. Yes, "boutique" farms are on the rise, but I feel uneasy with someone saying, "my millionaire friend came to Vermont, bought a ton of land, and is making a killing as a Gentleman farmer." That phenomenon really hurts the locals who live here and see property values increase because folks who come from outside have not just the money but the expectation of paying inflated amounts for land.
> 
> Just my feeling.  That and 75 cents buys you a cup of coffee.



It wouldn't be anything new...see Elmer Darling. Although I realize he was orginally a East Burke native, it is still kind of the same thing.


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## WWF-VT (May 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> Just my feeling. That and 75 cents buys you a cup of coffee.



Where can you get a cup of coffee for 75 cents these days ?


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## thetrailboss (May 19, 2011)

WWF-VT said:


> Where can you get a cup of coffee for 75 cents these days ?


 
Good point!  :lol:


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## thetrailboss (May 19, 2011)

from_the_NEK said:


> It wouldn't be anything new...see Elmer Darling. Although I realize he was orginally a East Burke native, it is still kind of the same thing.


 
Yeah, true, but I think that the problem is accelerated nowadays.


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## marcski (May 19, 2011)

WWF-VT said:


> Where can you get a cup of coffee for 75 cents these days ?



Lots of places....you just need another $2.00.


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## deadheadskier (May 19, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> You're right. Yes, "boutique" farms are on the rise, but I feel uneasy with someone saying, "my millionaire friend came to Vermont, bought a ton of land, and is making a killing as a Gentleman farmer." That phenomenon really hurts the locals who live here and see property values increase because folks who come from outside have not just the money but the expectation of paying inflated amounts for land.  It ends up pushing lower and middle class folks out.
> 
> Just my feeling. That and 75 cents buys you a cup of coffee.



Not quite what you think 

He leased unused farmland adjacent to the farm his family had owned since the 1700s and brought it back to life.  500 acres of it. Created dozens of jobs. The same farmland could've been sold off for real estate development.  He's also selling products from neighboring farms down in NYC for far more money than they would get in VT.  I doubt his actions increased the property values in Bellows Falls and Westminster, VT much if at all.  

He grew up in VT, we went to high school together in Vermont.  He then got a full ride to Dartmouth then Oxford and then went on to work for Credit Suisse.  At 32 years old he decided to bring his financial resources back home to help the family farm and local community.

It's 100% a positive thing and something more young Vermonters should look to do.  He knew there was minimal opportunity for young people in VT, so he worked his ass off and came back a wealthy still young man and is now growing the local economy.  Not hurting locals at all.


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## from_the_NEK (May 19, 2011)

deadheadskier said:


> Not quite what you think
> 
> He leased unused farmland adjacent to the farm his family had owned since the 1700s and brought it back to life.  500 acres of it. Created dozens of jobs. The same farmland could've been sold off for real estate development.  He's also selling products from neighboring farms down in NYC for far more money than they would get in VT.  I doubt his actions increased the property values in Bellows Falls and Westminster, VT much if at all.
> 
> ...



That sound very much like the Elmer Darling story I referred to a couple posts ago.


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## deadheadskier (May 19, 2011)

I'm still working on my first million before I move home to VT :lol:

I know, wasn't born there, so can't really say I'm a Vermonter.  There are rules.  But I have spent more time living in VT than anywhere else.


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## Moe Ghoul (May 19, 2011)

I plan to buy a place in VT within a year and move residency up there. My BC/BS premiums drop by 2/3 making the shift. That amounts to a modest mortgage payment.


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