# Speculation about MLK weekend storm....



## tnt1234 (Jan 14, 2019)

Is this for real?

Ice or snow in the Catskills?

Huge in N.Vt?

Total miss?

Let's speculate!


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## cdskier (Jan 14, 2019)

I predict that the timing sucks as it screws up me driving home from VT on Sunday (I'm not off on Monday). So a big snowstorm may ironically be the cause of me missing a weekend of skiing.

Pretty good agreement between the models from what I've seen that something will happen...exactly who gets what is the big question.


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## abc (Jan 14, 2019)

I don’t quite like what I’m seeing. So hoping for some change in timing...

My Ikon base pass is blackout for both Saturday (which I can’t ski anyway due to other factors) and Sunday (wish I could). So I’m hoping it will come 12 hrs later so I can take advantage of it on Monday! Hahaha.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 14, 2019)

tnt1234 said:


> Is this for real?
> 
> Ice or snow in the Catskills?
> 
> ...



A bit too early.

Definitely too early.

Too early.

I hope not.


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## Zand (Jan 14, 2019)

Think this will be pretty good for all of New England. Looks to hug the coast...might mix in SNE but a ton of cold air to work with too. At this point VT, NH, and ME should get the yardsticks out. Hopefully it doesn't start trending from where it is forecasted now.


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## drjeff (Jan 15, 2019)

Starting to trend warmer on the front end of Sunday.... Not the best scenario....  Still 5 days out though, and with Sunday's storm, sure looks like it will have plenty of moisture to work with


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## Ol Dirty Noodle (Jan 15, 2019)

I’ll be at Smuggs 21st-26th, it’ll be cold up there all week plenty of snowmaking and more natural expected


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## tnt1234 (Jan 15, 2019)

cdskier said:


> I predict that the timing sucks as it screws up me driving home from VT on Sunday (I'm not off on Monday). So a big snowstorm may ironically be the cause of me missing a weekend of skiing.
> 
> Pretty good agreement between the models from what I've seen that something will happen...exactly who gets what is the big question.



Yeah, I work Monday as well....

But I might get a room in the catskills for Saturday night if I can find one.  That's about as far as I want to drive home Sunday night (3hrs+- for me).

Seems worth the shot right now.  

Right now, look


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## tnt1234 (Jan 15, 2019)

Ol Dirty Noodle said:


> I’ll be at Smuggs 21st-26th, it’ll be cold up there all week plenty of snowmaking and more natural expected




That's going to be fantastic.  I don't think you have to worry about snow making.


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## NYDB (Jan 15, 2019)

If this storm delivers the goods, I hope everyone stays home Sunday because they are afraid of a nightmare drive home and potentially missing out on the NFL games


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## mfi (Jan 15, 2019)

I will be out west so its guaranteed it will snow here..it always does.


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## cdskier (Jan 15, 2019)

tnt1234 said:


> Yeah, I work Monday as well....
> 
> But I might get a room in the catskills for Saturday night if I can find one.  That's about as far as I want to drive home Sunday night (3hrs+- for me).
> 
> ...



Cats would be about 2 hours for me...but my gear is all at Sugarbush so that doesn't help. And even getting home from the Cats Sunday afternoon could be a huge challenge depending on how the storm goes. Cats could also get mixed precip from the storm depending on the track.


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## Glenn (Jan 15, 2019)

Interesting setup so far. Hoping that it stays all snow into SoVT. If it stays snow, could be a big event. 

Blacked out this weekend...but still may head up to prep firewood since it could potentially be pretty buried after the storm.


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## Smellytele (Jan 15, 2019)

Glenn said:


> Interesting setup so far. Hoping that it stays all snow into SoVT. If it stays snow, could be a big event.
> 
> Blacked out this weekend...but still may head up to prep firewood since it could potentially be pretty buried after the storm.



SoVT is showing it could get some mixing as could central NH. All could change with just a little movement of the track


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## MG Skier (Jan 15, 2019)

Could be great but who knows....it is New England.....I have Monday off  and would love to get away but I need to be sure my girlfriend can get out to work on Monday. If it is bad enough, she will stay home. Looks like it could me mostly rain for me.


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## machski (Jan 15, 2019)

I tend to not speculate on storms not even coasted in on the west coast yet.  A lot can change.

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## Euler (Jan 15, 2019)

I have to work SUnday and Monday so it's prolly gonna snow ALOT in SoVT.....


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## ghughes20 (Jan 15, 2019)

We've had so much r-word this season we're do for some consistent snow.  My fingers are crossed.  Also, Wed-Friday should provide some snow to whet the appetite.  

I'm taking off on Monday and will be at Stratton for the long weekend.  That said, my guess is that Killington and north will do better with this storm.  Still early.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 15, 2019)

machski said:


> *I tend to not speculate on storms not even coasted in on the west coast yet.
> 
> A lot can change.*


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## tnt1234 (Jan 15, 2019)

The curse of living in NJ ....in order to make plans, I'll need to speculate a bit...


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## andrec10 (Jan 15, 2019)

I am leaving for Utah early Saturday morning, so it will be a epic storm. We get a big storm every time I go out west! You all are welcome!


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## ShadyGrove (Jan 15, 2019)

cdskier said:


> I predict that the timing sucks as it screws up me driving home from VT on Sunday (I'm not off on Monday). So a big snowstorm may ironically be the cause of me missing a weekend of skiing.
> 
> Pretty good agreement between the models from what I've seen that something will happen...exactly who gets what is the big question.



This is exactly what vacation days are for.  Potential for yuuuge storm and you are either going to skip the entire weekend or take a PTO day and have 2 pow days in a row?   No brainer.


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## Glenn (Jan 15, 2019)

Smellytele said:


> SoVT is showing it could get some mixing as could central NH. All could change with just a little movement of the track



As with most of these New England systems, we'll probably have a better idea 36 hours before the main event.

*Edit: Thanks to everyone who is traveling out West or working. We appreciate you commitment to the cause.


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## tumbler (Jan 15, 2019)

No whammies, no whammies....


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## Smellytele (Jan 15, 2019)

With Noaa reporting 80% chance for precip this far out something is coming


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## ThinkSnow (Jan 15, 2019)

tnt1234 said:


> The curse of living in NJ


....Just one?


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 15, 2019)

tnt1234 said:


> *The curse of living in NJ ....in order to make plans, I'll need to speculate a bit*...



I can sympathize with that.   

So lets talk about things that at 5 days out are more predictable than snowfall, like temps.  It's definitely going to be very cold, strong model agreement across the board on that.  

Wind looks okay for now, but I'll definitely be watching that with some worry, specifically for Sunday.  

And what of timing, is the drive to the mountain going to be an absolutely brutal 15mph crawl with car crashes galore Sunday morning unless you're staying on resort property. There you go, some more things to worry about.




ThinkSnow said:


> *Just one?*



Paying $13,000 or more in property tax on a modest middle-class family home is another.


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## ThinkSnow (Jan 15, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> Paying $13,000 or more in property tax on a modest middle-class family home is another.


 Choices


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## mfi (Jan 15, 2019)

andrec10 said:


> I am leaving for Utah early Saturday morning, so it will be a epic storm. We get a big storm every time I go out west! You all are welcome!


Yup..every time I go too.


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## andrec10 (Jan 15, 2019)

Glenn said:


> As with most of these New England systems, we'll probably have a better idea 36 hours before the main event.
> 
> *Edit: Thanks to everyone who is traveling out West or working. We appreciate you commitment to the cause.



You are all welcome!


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## cdskier (Jan 15, 2019)

ShadyGrove said:


> This is exactly what vacation days are for.  Potential for yuuuge storm and you are either going to skip the entire weekend or take a PTO day and have 2 pow days in a row?   No brainer.



Everything isn't always that black and white...


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 15, 2019)

The ECMWF just went full-blown snowpocalyse on us.   

If this were to actually happen, even staying with my wife's family in n.VT & even with AWD & snow tires, would I be able to get to the ski resort Sunday?


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## GregoryIsaacs (Jan 15, 2019)

LOL lets be real....this is MLK weekend in New England we're talking about. This things gonna turn into a tropical rainstorm just like last year and the year before and the year before! 

I told myself I would never commit to skiing MLK weekend after having my first trip to Magic get washed out last year but here I am finalizing my plans for Mount Snow and getting that real bad cold going for my sickday monday


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## 180 (Jan 15, 2019)

GregoryIsaacs said:


> LOL lets be real....this is MLK weekend in New England we're talking about. This things gonna turn into a tropical rainstorm just like last year and the year before and the year before!
> 
> I told myself I would never commit to skiing MLK weekend after having my first trip to Magic get washed out last year but here I am finalizing my plans for Mount Snow and getting that real bad cold going for my sickday monday



The best MLK weekend was 1996 Blizzard


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## tnt1234 (Jan 15, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> I can sympathize with that.
> 
> So lets talk about things that at 5 days out are more predictable than snowfall, like temps.  It's definitely going to be very cold, strong model agreement across the board on that.
> 
> ...




All true.

But:

Plattekill lifts seem to do OK in wind.
Cold is cold....can deal with that.
Trying to find a room within 15 miles so the slog in the AM will be manageable.

On top of all that, work and family schedule seems to be a little out of focus on this right now, so we'll see...


Re: NJ - yeah, taxes, proximity to mountains, traffic....lots of reasons to question my current address...


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## Glenn (Jan 15, 2019)

I think there's some credence to "getting there" based on the timing of this system.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 15, 2019)

GregoryIsaacs said:


> *I told myself I would never commit to skiing MLK weekend after having my first trip to Magic get washed out last year but here I am finalizing my plans for Mount Snow*



If you worry about last minute weather shifts, why not pick your mountain/lodging on Thursday rather than Tuesday?



tnt1234 said:


> Re: NJ - yeah, taxes, proximity to mountains, traffic....*lots of reasons to question my current address*...



We're in beginning discussions regarding whether or not to join the masses who are fleeing New Jersey.  

If I do go, I wont say that I left New Jersey, the reality is, New Jersey left us.  Many feel the same.


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## skifree (Jan 15, 2019)

I'm prepositioning myself in northern New England Saturday and move as needed.


On a mission for the goods. Been stuck at work all season.


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## RichT (Jan 15, 2019)

It's MLK weekend, I don't care if the Cats get 5 feet, there's no why in hell I would go. Because I know it would be me and around 20,000 of my closest friends there. NO THANK YOU............


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## GregoryIsaacs (Jan 15, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> If you worry about last minute weather shifts, why not pick your mountain/lodging on Thursday rather than Tuesday?
> 
> Homeowner in West Dover about 2 min (and on the right side of 100) from Sneaux so not much dictating or planning involved.... my real issue with MLK is the combination of the mass of crowds and lack of viable terrain... I can only handle so much of it during Christmas week!


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## tumbler (Jan 15, 2019)

Crowds are always a concern for MLK but with everything in play it will spread them out.  I'd take a huge dump that about 15% of the people skiing know how to ski than hard frozen groomers with human gates.  Getting to the hill is an interesting take- I'll get there but the concern is the other yahoos that can't drive and f*ck it up for everyone else.


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## machski (Jan 15, 2019)

Starting to trend towards a warm air intrusion for part of the storm.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 15, 2019)

tumbler said:


> Crowds are always a concern for MLK but with everything in play it will spread them out. * I'd take a huge dump that about 15% of the people skiing know how to ski than hard frozen groomers with human gates. * Getting to the hill is an interesting take- I'll get there but the concern is the other yahoos that can't drive and f*ck it up for everyone else.



This is a good point too.  If you do get, say, 15" of snow, much of the MLK crowd wont even be able to ski well and will likely call it a day early Sunday.  Saturday, however, yes, Saturday will be an absolute zoo.


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## Zand (Jan 15, 2019)

With the strong possibility of mixing the further south and east you go, the best course of action is obviously go as far north and west as possible while still trying to find the sweet spot. Right now I'm thinking MRV.


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## NYDB (Jan 15, 2019)

Ive experienced some crazy snows, and not once had an issue getting to the mountain.  In VT, they keep the roads in great shape.  Im about 5-10 miles from 3 mountains and never had a concern about getting to any of them during heavy snowfall.  My main concern now is the snain.  

Sent from my SM-G960U using AlpineZone mobile app


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## andrec10 (Jan 15, 2019)

machski said:


> starting to trend towards a warm air intrusion for part of the storm.
> 
> Sent from my pixel 3 using alpinezone mobile app



no soup for you!


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## Not Sure (Jan 15, 2019)

RichT said:


> It's MLK weekend, I don't care if the Cats get 5 feet, there's no why in hell I would go. Because I know it would be me and around 20,000 of my closest friends there. NO THANK YOU............



Went to Platty last year "Storm Riley" . I didn't know it then but it was the busiest day in their history . I never waited more then 10 minutes in line! it took me 45 minutes to leave as there were cars parked for 2 miles ......Platty FTW!!!


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## WWF-VT (Jan 15, 2019)

1/15  - WCAX weather for VT:

 ..._Then all eyes will be on a potent storm system that could bring us significant snow over the weekend. Right now, it looks like snow will start to move in mid-Saturday and continue Saturday night into Sunday. The snow could be heavy at times in our northern and central areas, where temperatures will be cold. But a wedge of warmer air may change the snow to rain or freezing rain in our southern areas early on Sunday, before going back to snow again later in the day. It will also turn very windy and cold on the back side of this storm for late Sunday into Martin Luther King, Jr. Day on Monday._
_It is still too early to say how much snow we'll get out of this storm, but we will be closely monitoring the evolution of this system and will keep you up-to-date with the latest look on how this storm will be affecting us._


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## benski (Jan 15, 2019)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Went to Platty last year "Storm Riley" . I didn't know it then but it was the busiest day in their history . I never waited more then 10 minutes in line! it took me 45 minutes to leave as there were cars parked for 2 miles ......Platty FTW!!!



I was there. I parked across from the parking lot at 9am and had to wait 1 hour to buy a lift ticket. I don't remember leaving being much of an issue, but I tried Apple maps which sent me on a crazy route over the mountain. That was a great day though.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 15, 2019)

NY DirtBag said:


> *In VT, they keep the roads in great shape.*



Vermont does not keep the roads in, "great shape", not by a long-shot.   Even the interstate for god's sake, they only plow 1 lane on 89 in a big snow.  Vermont might not be as bad as Pennsylvania with snowy roads, but "great" they are certainly not.


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## Zand (Jan 15, 2019)

Vermont is good when a big storm hits. But the roads are under-treated when there is a smaller event and quite frankly it's sad that it's easier to drive around right after a 2 footer than it is after 3 inches.


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## Not Sure (Jan 15, 2019)

benski said:


> I was there. I parked across from the parking lot at 9am and had to wait 1 hour to buy a lift ticket. I don't remember leaving being much of an issue, but I tried Apple maps which sent me on a crazy route over the mountain. That was a great day though.



Saturday  was my first time there ,I was planning on hitting Elk but thought another hour on the road would be worth the 3' snow. Got there around 8am . Surreal..... Hoots and Hollers from all over the mountain . A couple untracked runs and hit the woods . I was toast by 2 o'clock . The mountain ops people were using pick up trucks and whatever they could to shuttle people in .


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## tnt1234 (Jan 15, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> If you worry about last minute weather shifts, why not pick your mountain/lodging on Thursday rather than Tuesday?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Places are booking up.  Lost my first two choices in the cats...waiting till thurs. might be risky.

ditto on NJ...and I agree.


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## tnt1234 (Jan 15, 2019)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Went to Platty last year "Storm Riley" . I didn't know it then but it was the busiest day in their history . I never waited more then 10 minutes in line! it took me 45 minutes to leave as there were cars parked for 2 miles ......Platty FTW!!!



Shhhh!  Don't spread the word...

If I go, that's where I'll be.


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## tnt1234 (Jan 15, 2019)

benski said:


> I was there. I parked across from the parking lot at 9am and had to wait 1 hour to buy a lift ticket. I don't remember leaving being much of an issue, but I tried Apple maps which sent me on a crazy route over the mountain. That was a great day though.



I was there the day of the storm - place was empty.  Was there the next day as well - long line for tix and cash only....thought the snow that day was actually kind of tough, where as the day before was sublime.  

storm day was ski on.  Next day was 10 minutes tops.


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## Smellytele (Jan 16, 2019)

While I am looking forward to this weekend, The wind behind the storm has me. I will be at Cannon from Friday night-Tuesday staying at Mittersill so driving is of no concern.


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## Glenn (Jan 16, 2019)

May be trending a bit colder now. That would be good for us snow lovers.


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## Smellytele (Jan 16, 2019)

Glenn said:


> May be trending a bit colder now. That would be good for us snow lovers.



Each model run has the snow/liquid line moving around at this point


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## andrec10 (Jan 16, 2019)

Smellytele said:


> Each model run has the snow/liquid line moving around at this point



it's a fluid line.....


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## Cornhead (Jan 16, 2019)

tnt1234 said:


> I was there the day of the storm - place was empty.  Was there the next day as well - long line for tix and cash only....thought the snow that day was actually kind of tough, where as the day before was sublime.
> 
> storm day was ski on.  Next day was 10 minutes tops.


My best day last season. Thigh deep. I was soaking wet and shivering on the chair at the end of the day, telling myself, "This is my last run" on every ride. Automatically got back on the chair every time till ski patrol boarded for their clearing run.

Sent from my Moto E (4) Plus using AlpineZone mobile app


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## WWF-VT (Jan 16, 2019)

Glenn said:


> May be trending a bit colder now. That would be good for us snow lovers.



Gary at WCAX says widespread 6-12" of snow in VT.  High temp of* zero *on MLK day.


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## tnt1234 (Jan 16, 2019)

Wonder how long the storm lasts into Sunday.  If everything goes right, I'll be driving to NJ from the cats sunday night.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 16, 2019)

WWF-VT said:


> Gary at WCAX says widespread 6-12" of snow in VT.  High temp of* zero *on MLK day.



The entire MLK weekend will be *very* cold.  Hopefully that keeps many of the "holiday only" skiers in the lodge.


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## Glenn (Jan 16, 2019)

andrec10 said:


> it's a fluid line.....




:lol:


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 16, 2019)

Both the UKIE and the Euro shifted south this afternoon.  Good news for some, "less good" news for others.


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## tnt1234 (Jan 16, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> Both the UKIE and the Euro shifted south this afternoon.  Good news for some, "less good" news for others.



 who wins and loses on that?


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 16, 2019)

tnt1234 said:


> who wins and loses on that?



Wins & loses is all relative, because the model depiction is great for all of ski country.   

But in terms of raw inches of snowfall, it would be worse for ADK and n.VT and better for s.VT and Cats.


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## drjeff (Jan 16, 2019)

Going to start have to factoring in wind exposure for sure by the looks of it for Sunday!  Gusts in the 50-80mph range above 3500 feet aren't out of the question Sunday afternoon into Monday as the Arctic air freight trains in on the back side of this storm :-o:-o


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## tnt1234 (Jan 16, 2019)

drjeff said:


> Going to start have to factoring in wind exposure for sure by the looks of it for Sunday!  Gusts in the 50-80mph range above 3500 feet aren't out of the question Sunday afternoon into Monday as the Arctic air freight trains in on the back side of this storm :-o:-o



Holy crap - really?  

That's some serious wind....


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## drjeff (Jan 16, 2019)

tnt1234 said:


> Holy crap - really?
> 
> That's some serious wind....



From the mountain forecast website for Killington....

https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Killington-Peak/forecasts/1291

and for Mount Snow (there station is actually at the top of The Hermitage for this one) 

https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Haystack-Mountain-Vermont/forecasts/1050


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## andrec10 (Jan 16, 2019)

And all the freshies are blown into the woods.....


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 16, 2019)

I'm not seeing those hurricane winds on the weather models, at least not the GFS or the Canadian.


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## Killingtime (Jan 16, 2019)

drjeff said:


> From the mountain forecast website for Killington....
> 
> https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Killington-Peak/forecasts/1291
> 
> ...



Gotta make sure they are clicked over to Fahrenheit / MPH,  but even then it still looks bad. The big unknown for me is wind hold.


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## GregoryIsaacs (Jan 16, 2019)

drjeff said:


> From the mountain forecast website for Killington....
> 
> https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Killington-Peak/forecasts/1291
> 
> ...



UGH mount snow is going to be a zoo with 30 inches of POW!!! LOL 

But really i'm talking apocalyptic type crowds....... Good for them though!


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## NYDB (Jan 17, 2019)

looks like its coming in a bit later.  snow all day sunday.  

any travel sunday will be dangerous.  Stay home and play it safe.


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## tnt1234 (Jan 17, 2019)

NY DirtBag said:


> looks like its coming in a bit later.  snow all day sunday.
> 
> any travel sunday will be dangerous.  Stay home and play it safe.



Starting to worry about that a little.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 17, 2019)

The more I analyze this storm, the more it seems absolutely horrible from a powder-hunting perspective.  Especially for those pondering the risk/reward of very long travel given the low single digit ambient temps (plus with a breeze) all weekend.

So then I thought, okay, maybe I'll bag my plans for n.VT and just get a motel in the Cats Saturday night and ski Platty Sunday since they should pick up a foot or more with less wind and better temp.   The problem with that idea is that after raining & icing much of Saturday night into the day on Sunday here in Jersey, temps look to plummet to low-20s by 1pm.  What a fun drive home from Platty that would be.

I'll be monitoring every model run from now through tomorrow afternoon for changes, but as of right now (and I *HATE* to say this)....


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## Glenn (Jan 17, 2019)

NWS Albany has some interesting stats on potential precip totals for the Albany area: 1.6 to 2.0"   Still waiting on the mid day update to the forecast discussion.


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## drjeff (Jan 17, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> The more I analyze this storm, the more it seems absolutely horrible from a powder-hunting perspective.  Especially for those pondering the risk/reward of very long travel given the low single digit ambient temps (plus with a breeze) all weekend.
> 
> So then I thought, okay, maybe I'll bag my plans for n.VT and just get a motel in the Cats Saturday night and ski Platty Sunday since they should pick up a foot or more with less wind and better temp.   The problem with that idea is that after raining & icing much of Saturday night into the day on Sunday here in Jersey, temps look to plummet to low-20s by 1pm.  What a fun drive home from Platty that would be.
> 
> ...



Exactly, there sure looks like a quick, distinct transition zone (say maybe 50 miles or so wide North to South) from where it will stay all snow to the North and go through a sleet zone into a freezing rain zone and then a rain zone after an initial few inches of snow with a flash freeze rolling in sometime Sunday afternoon for the areas not staying all snow/frozen stuff. Not a great travel situation if you live in the areas where some liquid stuff goes through the flash freeze later on Sunday.....

I'm hoping my house in CT stays in the sleet zone and not into the rain zone (it looks like it's going to be close right now) or else when I get home from VT Monday evening, I may not be able to find the asphalt of my driveway until the multi-day run of above freezing temps!!


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## TheArchitect (Jan 17, 2019)

I booked a room for Saturday night to Monday morning and plan to ski at Burke.  Hoping for a lot of snow but even 6-12 would make me happy.  Is it looking like no. VT isn't going to get even that?

My hope is that the winds don't cause problems with the lifts.  I have no issues with the low temps.


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## Jersey Skier (Jan 17, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> So then I thought, okay, maybe I'll bag my plans for n.VT and just get a motel in the Cats Saturday night and ski Platty Sunday since they should pick up a foot or more with less wind and better temp.   The problem with that idea is that after raining & icing much of Saturday night into the day on Sunday here in Jersey, temps look to plummet to low-20s by 1pm.  What a fun drive home from Platty that would be.



This is my current plan as I was only going to ski Platty Sunday anyway.  Then if the storm totally screws up and moves North, the Beast or Magic are only another 2.5 hours.  Sunday night would obviously SUCK.


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## NYDB (Jan 17, 2019)

Glenn said:


> NWS Albany has some interesting stats on potential precip totals for the Albany area: 1.6 to 2.0"   Still waiting on the mid day update to the forecast discussion.



' or ''?


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## tumbler (Jan 17, 2019)

The wind forecast seems to be a bit of question also.  They don't look too bad, not like a traditional nor'easter.  I'm looking at N. VT so maybe they are worse closer to the center of the Low.


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## JimG. (Jan 17, 2019)

If you have not already booked a hotel/motel for Fri, Sat, or Sun night you had better do so pronto...many places I have looked at are already booked solid.

One reason I'm not too concerned about skiing Sunday if I can't get to the Cats. I have a room booked for Mon night up at K and even that was tough to come by given the wind forecasts for this storm many are staying over hoping to get better weather Tuesday.


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## slatham (Jan 17, 2019)

drjeff said:


> From the mountain forecast website for Killington....
> 
> https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Killington-Peak/forecasts/1291
> 
> ...



These are based off of one model, and likely the 5,000' values. Not a real "forecast". I would use:

https://www.weather.gov/btv/mountain

Click on the peak of your liking (except none in SoVT - use Dorset as proxy). Also look at the new detailed hourly.

The winds on this NWS site are substantially less than the other site, but alas do not go out very far.


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## tnt1234 (Jan 17, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> The more I analyze this storm, the more it seems absolutely horrible from a powder-hunting perspective.  Especially for those pondering the risk/reward of very long travel given the low single digit ambient temps (plus with a breeze) all weekend.
> 
> So then I thought, okay, maybe I'll bag my plans for n.VT and just get a motel in the Cats Saturday night and ski Platty Sunday since they should pick up a foot or more with less wind and better temp.   The problem with that idea is that after raining & icing much of Saturday night into the day on Sunday here in Jersey, temps look to plummet to low-20s by 1pm.  What a fun drive home from Platty that would be.
> 
> ...




Yeah, valid concerns.

Still planning on heading up Sat. night.  (Outside shot at leaving early enough for a half day at Bell.)  Platty Sunday and crawl home Sunday night for work on Monday.  

Reserving the option to bail....


----------



## mfi (Jan 17, 2019)

I think Im glad I wont be here for this..sounds like a very variable weekend.


----------



## tumbler (Jan 17, 2019)

I'm pumped!! Finally a storm on the weekend.  It will be crowded but whatever.  I don't wait all off season to ski to bail on a weekend with a snow storm.


----------



## yeggous (Jan 17, 2019)

Latest discussion on "Chasing Snow" is up.


----------



## GregoryIsaacs (Jan 17, 2019)

tumbler said:


> I'm pumped!! Finally a storm on the weekend.  It will be crowded but whatever.  I don't wait all off season to ski to bail on a weekend with a snow storm.



It will probably be the one of the most crowded powder days for New England in a couple of years... but hey weekends like this pays the bills and builds the bubble lifts so no complaining necessary.

Luckily I know how to ski my home mountain (Mount Snow) with minimal human interaction and I plan on keeping it that way!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 17, 2019)

tnt1234 said:


> Yeah, valid concerns.



Joe Cioffi just put this out, he's on-board with my thinking:



> Regardless of the outcome, New York City and parts of the Tri-State, including Long Island, are going to be in a precarious situation Sunday night and Monday. We’re almost better off getting that 12-18″ of all snow than any changeover to mix or liquid.
> 
> A deep freeze is coming Sunday night into Monday; and for all of you old folks out there like me, if we get any liquid or mix involved in this, it’ll look like the episode of Tom & Jerry when they froze the kitchen.



I'm hoping for a dramatic change in the next 48 hours.


----------



## xwhaler (Jan 17, 2019)

yeggous said:


> Latest discussion on "Chasing Snow" is up.



Great write-up and analysis---definitely helps us plan. Looks like Ragged (where I will be all wknd) is in a good spot!


----------



## MEtoVTSkier (Jan 17, 2019)

GregoryIsaacs said:


> Luckily I know how to ski my home mountain (Mount Snow) with minimal human interaction and I plan on keeping it that way!



With skins before opening? :lol:


----------



## drjeff (Jan 17, 2019)

GregoryIsaacs said:


> It will probably be the one of the most crowded powder days for New England in a couple of years... but hey weekends like this pays the bills and builds the bubble lifts so no complaining necessary.
> 
> Luckily I know how to ski my home mountain (Mount Snow) with minimal human interaction and I plan on keeping it that way!


The "good" thing is even in non powder days on Holiday weekends, a good percentage of the couple of time a year masses over do their under used ski muscles on Saturday, then only take a few runs on Sunday and often bag Monday. Add in a bunch of powder, and my guess is that demographic takes even less runs than normal on Sun/Monday!!

Sunday night though, ski area bars may be quite full with football fans though... 

The Bruce Jaques show at Mount Snow in Cuzzin's could be even wilder than usual for sure!! 

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using AlpineZone mobile app


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## keyser soze (Jan 17, 2019)

I'm with Drjeff.  Add in some frigid temps and wind and i think the bigger problem will be keeping warm.  Only die hards will be skiing, although the mountain lodges and parking lots will be packed.  Pro tip-wear your bat thermal underwear-and allow your package to warm up in the lodge for a while before attempting to pee-----shrinkage factor.


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## abc (Jan 17, 2019)

drjeff said:


> [FONT=&quot]I'm hoping my house in CT stays in the sleet zone and not into the rain zone (it looks like [/FONT][FONT=&quot]I'm hoping my house in CT stays in the sleet zone and not into the rain zone (it looks like it's going to be close right now) or else when I get home from VT Monday evening, I may not be able to find the asphalt of my driveway until the multi-day run of above freezing temps!!



My house is definitely in the rain zone. 

I’m feeling quite conflicted. Though the ski condition is looking rather horrible. Staying home may not be any safer either...

[/FONT]


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## drjeff (Jan 17, 2019)

keyser soze said:


> I'm with Drjeff.  Add in some frigid temps and wind and i think the bigger problem will be keeping warm.  Only die hards will be skiing, although the mountain lodges and parking lots will be packed.  Pro tip-wear your bat thermal underwear-and allow your package to warm up in the lodge for a while before attempting to pee-----shrinkage factor.


As me and my dental school friends who I have season tickets to the Patriots say on COLD weather game days when "nature calls".... Keep tugging at various layers until it feels good, and then you know it's time to go!! Lol!!!

And on a side note, if the Patriots were hosting the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP on Sunday night, given the forecast, how CRAZY would that game be?!?!

On the flip side, I'm glad Sunday evening, all I have to do while in VT is walk about 100 yards down the street in my condo complex to my friends condo who offered to host a party for the Pats game!! [emoji16][emoji16][emoji16]

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using AlpineZone mobile app


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## Glenn (Jan 18, 2019)

Looking pretty good for SoVT according to NWS...12-20"....with up to two feet in the Southern Greens. 

We won't be heading up this weekend, so we're riding this out in the flatlands. It'll be interesting to see how many people actually venture up north tonight for the long weekend.


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## mfi (Jan 18, 2019)

This is funny..I'm hoping for 8 to 10 in Wyoming and it looks like parts round here may get up to 2 feet. Well I hope so ..nothing like coming back to a buried East.


----------



## NYDB (Jan 18, 2019)

Glenn said:


> Looking pretty good for SoVT according to NWS...12-20"....with up to two feet in the Southern Greens.
> 
> We won't be heading up this weekend, so we're riding this out in the flatlands. It'll be interesting to see how many people actually venture up north tonight for the long weekend.



anecdotal evidence of course, but pretty much everyone I have talked to is going skiing this weekend.  

It's going to be jammed.  I expect sunday AM to see cars in ditches everywhere.


----------



## tumbler (Jan 18, 2019)

keyser soze said:


> I'm with Drjeff.  Add in some frigid temps and wind and i think the bigger problem will be keeping warm.  Only die hards will be skiing, although the mountain lodges and parking lots will be packed.  Pro tip-wear your bat thermal underwear-and allow your package to warm up in the lodge for a while before attempting to pee-----shrinkage factor.



I was in the pool!!


----------



## tnt1234 (Jan 18, 2019)

NY DirtBag said:


> anecdotal evidence of course, but pretty much everyone I have talked to is going skiing this weekend.
> 
> It's going to be jammed.  I expect sunday AM to see cars in ditches everywhere.



Looks like my outing is falling apart, so there might be one less car in the ditches.


----------



## mattskis (Jan 18, 2019)

Can anyone comment on how the drive up to Mt. Snow from Bratt might be on rt 9 Sunday AM. I've got snow tires but no AWD. Thanks!


----------



## skiur (Jan 18, 2019)

mattfrancis11 said:


> Can anyone comment on how the drive up to Mt. Snow from Bratt might be on rt 9 Sunday AM. I've got snow tires but no AWD. Thanks!



Going up 9 towards hogback Mt should be a lot of fun!......good luck


----------



## slatham (Jan 18, 2019)

Sunday morning it looks to be puking snow, and having done so since probably midnight. 8am could see a foot on the ground already and dumping. Driver beware......


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 18, 2019)

NY DirtBag said:


> anecdotal evidence of course, but *pretty much everyone I have talked to is going skiing this weekend.*
> 
> It's going to be jammed. * I expect sunday AM to see cars in ditches everywhere.*



Everyone you talked to is going to a ski resort this weekend, but my guess is only 50% to 2/3 of them at most will actually be skiing!

I wish there was a webcam by Jay Peak to count the 2WD sedans stuck on the side of the road Sunday!



tnt1234 said:


> *Looks like my outing is falling apart,* so there might be one less car in the ditches.



I pulled the plug on n.VT too.   

Too many risk factors from the probabilistic model swimming in my head to risk a 14 hour RT drive.  

You've got negative to single digit ambient temperatures, the heaviest snow falling during the drive to the mountain timeframe Sunday, a holiday weekend, and no real idea what the wind issue may or may not be, etc....


----------



## drjeff (Jan 18, 2019)

mattfrancis11 said:


> Can anyone comment on how the drive up to Mt. Snow from Bratt might be on rt 9 Sunday AM. I've got snow tires but no AWD. Thanks!



Best bet is to wait at the Cumberland Farms and/or Dunkin Donuts on 9 in West Brattleboro until you see a VT Trans plow heading up the hill on 9, and then follow it up the hill. 

When a storm is really hitting hard they usually send a truck up 9 every 30 minutes or so. I've used that strategy, even with my AWD SUV and snow tires, a few times over the years to safely get me out of Bratt up and over to Wilmington and the Mount Snow area.

The reality is getting to Mount Snow from pretty much any direction, involves having to negotiate roads that travel up and over and through at least one pass, if not multiple passes


----------



## hespeler (Jan 18, 2019)

Anyone care to venture a guess on how the driving will be Monday afternoon?

I'll be coming up from Long Island to ski Tues/Wed.  Hopefully the roads will be salted/sanded by then.


----------



## Glenn (Jan 18, 2019)

hespeler said:


> Anyone care to venture a guess on how the driving will be Monday afternoon?
> 
> I'll be coming up from Long Island to ski Tues/Wed.  Hopefully the roads will be salted/sanded by then.



Right now, Monday looks partly Sunny and cold. They should have the roads pretty clear by Monday AM if things dial back overnight Sunday. Looks like the snow will wind down Sunday late afternoon/early evening.


----------



## GregoryIsaacs (Jan 18, 2019)

Glenn said:


> Right now, Monday looks partly Sunny and cold. They should have the roads pretty clear by Monday AM if things dial back overnight Sunday. Looks like the snow will wind down Sunday late afternoon/early evening.



Can you think of a better setup for us working stiffs! These are the memories that get me through the summer.....


----------



## hespeler (Jan 18, 2019)

Glenn said:


> Right now, Monday looks partly Sunny and cold. They should have the roads pretty clear by Monday AM if things dial back overnight Sunday. Looks like the snow will wind down Sunday late afternoon/early evening.



As was mentioned earlier, K is booking up fast for mid-week next week.  Couldn't get anything on the Access Rd.  Had to book in Rutland.


----------



## hespeler (Jan 18, 2019)

GregoryIsaacs said:


> Can you think of a better setup for us working stiffs! These are the memories that get me through the summer.....



I'm a working stiff too.  Just a bit more flexible in when I can take leave.  My wife is holding down the fort at home with the kids.


----------



## abc (Jan 18, 2019)

Best case scenario: 
-- drive up Saturday leisurely while the holiday crowd attacks the hardpack
-- Sunday morning, dig out the car from under 2 ft of snow (storm over-perform than forecast overnigt but under-performs Sunday, so the roads are in decent shape)
-- Wind is tolerable so all lifts are running. Temperature on Monday a bit warmer than forecast. Smiling ear to ear for hitting the jackpot on the gamble

Worst Case scenario:
-- Spend 2 hours digging car out from underneath snow and slush, double drive time from lodging to mountain.
-- Only to find all upper mountain lifts on wind hold
-- Too cold to stay out for more than 2 runs 
-- Come home to find no power due to ice on power line. 

I'll decide tomorrow morning. But leaning heavily on NOT going


----------



## skifree (Jan 18, 2019)

hespeler said:


> As was mentioned earlier, K is booking up fast for mid-week next week.  Couldn't get anything on the Access Rd.  Had to book in Rutland.



sent you a pm


----------



## skifree (Jan 18, 2019)

abc said:


> Best case scenario:
> -- drive up Saturday leisurely while the holiday crowd attacks the hardpack
> -- Sunday morning, dig out the car from under 2 ft of snow (storm over-perform than forecast overnigt but under-performs Sunday, so the roads are in decent shape)
> -- Wind is tolerable so all lifts are running. Temperature on Monday a bit warmer than forecast. Smiling ear to ear for hitting the jackpot on the gamble
> ...



agree 100%
I will be up north till Monday night. hope I don't come home to ice wall in front of driveway and no power at CT house.
But can't pass on this. take my chances.


----------



## MEtoVTSkier (Jan 18, 2019)

abc said:


> Best case scenario:
> -- drive up Saturday leisurely while the holiday crowd attacks the hardpack
> -- Sunday morning, dig out the car from under 2 ft of snow (storm over-perform than forecast overnigt but under-performs Sunday, so the roads are in decent shape)
> -- Wind is tolerable so all lifts are running. Temperature on Monday a bit warmer than forecast. Smiling ear to ear for hitting the jackpot on the gamble
> ...



I wouldn't count on waking up to 2ft, looks more like the majority will fall ON Sunday...


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## mfi (Jan 18, 2019)

Too me, if you do things like this on a regular basis..AWD or 4WD is mandatory..and snow tires. Subaru outbacks last forever.


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## drjeff (Jan 18, 2019)

skifree said:


> agree 100%
> I will be up north till Monday night. hope I don't come home to ice wall in front of driveway and no power at CT house.
> But can't pass on this. take my chances.


I grabbed an extra 100lbs of rock salt ony way home from work this afternoon and placed it next to my snowblower in my garage in CT just in case I need to deal with an immoveable ice wall at the end of my driveway when I get home Monday afternoon!!

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## WWF-VT (Jan 18, 2019)

Heading to Sugarbush tonight with plans to stay through Tuesday.


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## Ol Dirty Noodle (Jan 18, 2019)

I’m leaving Monday around 4am from Long Island and heading to smuggs for 5 days, I’ve got AWD,snow tires and it’s a 6spd, I’m not worried


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 18, 2019)

Ol Dirty Noodle said:


> *I’m leaving Monday around 4am from Long Island and heading to smuggs for 5 days,* *I’ve got AWD,snow tires and it’s a 6spd, I’m not worried*


----------



## Ol Dirty Noodle (Jan 18, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


>



Pretty much


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## Los (Jan 18, 2019)

WWF-VT said:


> Heading to Sugarbush tonight with plans to stay through Tuesday.



It’s going to be an absolute zoo tomorrow at SB....


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## tnt1234 (Jan 18, 2019)

Yeah, my buddy on the way to stowe this PM - he's staying till monday or tuesday - knows my plans to ski sunday and drive home from teh cats.  Said signs on the thru way asking people not to drive saturday evening through sunday evening.

Not very encouraging.


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## ss20 (Jan 18, 2019)

Heard lots of chatter about this storm on my Northern VT trip this past midweek.  Everyone is hyped.  Sunday is going to be an amazing day.  Monday...ehhh...sure gonna be a lot of tourists in the lodge warming up.  Get it if you can but it's a ZERO exposed skin day for sure.  I don't think crowds will be horrific outside the lodge/bars/parking lots.  

I can't get out till Wednesday, which could be a wild ski day.  Could be snow, could be rain.  Either way the base will be DEEP.  I'm planning on skiing whoever is the jackpot, probably Stratton or Killington.  


And a shoutout to poor Yawgoo Valley which has had a very tough season.  Gonna get pelted with ice and then be washed out AGAIN with this storm.


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## tnt1234 (Jan 18, 2019)

Yeah, we're bailing.  As much for personal stuff as concern for the drive.  But we're dunzo.  Eyeing up next weekend.


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## WWF-VT (Jan 18, 2019)

Los said:


> It’s going to be an absolute zoo tomorrow at SB....



That's why I ski at Mt Ellen on most weekends and holidays


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## Not Sure (Jan 18, 2019)

Going to need more lines on the graph.:-D . May not make it out this weekend but happy for all those who do.


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## tumbler (Jan 19, 2019)

You guys are skiers!! Not going because there is too much snow and too many people?? 
Get ahold of yourself! (BG- insert scene from airplane)


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## ghughes20 (Jan 19, 2019)

At Stratton now, drove up last night from NJ.  Lots of traffic, accident on the Thruway and cars backed up on rt 7 in Hoosic.  A lot of people were headed up for the weekend.  I'm here until Monday, which is good because driving anywhere on Sunday is likely to be a challenge.  Speaking of Monday, the mountain is calling for a high temp of -11 on Monday.  Yikes.


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## Glenn (Jan 19, 2019)

NWS is pretty consistent with their totals this morning. Looking like a nice event.


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## 180 (Jan 19, 2019)

warm line moving north


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## abc (Jan 19, 2019)

tumbler said:


> You guys are skiers!! Not going because there is too much *ice* and too many people??
> Get ahold of yourself! (BG- insert scene from airplane)


Fix it for you, ice skater!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 19, 2019)

180 said:


> *warm line moving north*



That's an understatement.  

 If reality moves any more north than depicted there's going to be a lot of disappointed (and shocked) skiers in the northeast.

Especially if they'er naive enough to get their information from TWC.


----------



## Jersey Skier (Jan 19, 2019)

How far North now? Not to late to switch from Platty to VT. or Gore for me.


----------



## 180 (Jan 19, 2019)

very close call for the Cats


----------



## cdskier (Jan 19, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> That's an understatement.
> 
> If reality moves any more north than depicted there's going to be a lot of disappointed (and shocked) skiers in the northeast.
> 
> Especially if they'er naive enough to get their information from TWC.



The hype (and expectations) are beyond ridiculous. I've seen people saying this is going to be "the storm of the century for skiers in the northeast".


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 19, 2019)

Jersey Skier said:


> *How far North now? *Not to late to switch from Platty to VT. or Gore for me.



You'd need to know which model is going to be correct. lol    

This is the NAM's window, and per the NAM Gore or WF or n.VT would stay all snow, Cats and s.VT would have sleet issues.

The GFS is bad for the Cats but it's close, s.VT stays fine on that model, but again, close to being bad.  Gore is fine.

Canadian is very similar to the GFS, but not quite as bad.

It it was me and I didnt care where I was skiing, I'd choose Gore, it stays clean on GFS/Canuck and probably okay on NAM too, 12 to 16 inches on all models and the lowest risk of something bad happening.  And the 12 to 16 depicted will likely be higher due to actual temps and being on the good side of the warming line.  Wouldnt shock me if places above the danger see something like 20 inches.


----------



## gregnye (Jan 19, 2019)

cdskier said:


> The hype (and expectations) are beyond ridiculous. I've seen people saying this is going to be "the storm of the century for skiers in the northeast".



Yeah the hype is insane. And let's see how the forecasts actually play out. I mean the National Weather Service is partially shutdown so I am cautious how accurate the forecasting is. 

I think one of the things driving the hype is that we haven't had a snowstorm fall on a holiday weekend in many, many years. In fact last year we rarely had even a weekend with a snowstorm. Luckily I get weekdays off/have a more flexible schedule but for those who only can ski on weekends, it's been depressing.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 19, 2019)

cdskier said:


> *The hype (and expectations) are beyond ridiculous. **I've seen people saying this is going to be "the storm of the century for skiers in the northeast".*



TWC was showing graphics yesterday with 3 feet of snow "predicted" in places that no model depicted more than 20 inches.  They're a disgrace.


----------



## cdskier (Jan 19, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> TWC was showing graphics yesterday with 3 feet of snow "predicted" in places that no model depicted more than 20 inches.  They're a disgrace.



They appear to care more about ratings and entertainment now than actual factual based weather forecasting...


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## abc (Jan 19, 2019)

I’m “glad” my pass is blackout. 

My thought has always been, if the forecast is fantastic, I’ll find an out-of-way place to avoid the crowd, (and typically more acceptable window price too) to ski. 

The bar for “fantastic” condition is to justified the window price and lodging/gas. Ice and negative temperature, or high potential for wind hold doesn’t help the justification. 

This weekend’s forecast doesn’t qualify. I’m staying home to take care of long neglected chores.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 19, 2019)

gregnye said:


> Yeah the hype is insane. And *let's see how the forecasts actually play out.*



The Euro is the hope for ski country.  It's the only model staying colder and more SE, which would bring the goods to all of ski country.  Let's all hope for the sake of everyone skiing this holiday weekend it's going to be the winner.  Fingers crossed


----------



## Glenn (Jan 19, 2019)

I'm looking at only NWS data on this one. Looks like it's warming a bit for the flatlands(where I am in CT). Some mixing now for SoVT, but they didn't dial back the snow predictions much. And still looks good for the Southern Greens. 

I'm sure the grocery stores were insane today.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 19, 2019)

Glenn said:


> I'm looking at only NWS data on this one. Looks like it's warming a bit for the flatlands(where I am in CT). Some mixing now for SoVT, but they didn't dial back the snow predictions much. And still looks good for the Southern Greens.



Yeah, right now it looks like the crappy mix-effects are going to die somewhere in Massachusetts.  Hopefully that's the case.


----------



## Cornhead (Jan 19, 2019)

My local forecast has changed to less snow and some mixed precipitation, Binghamton, NY, but my local hill, Greek Peak, is still calling for 12-20" through tomorrow morning. Fingers crossed, foot and a half is perfect for the pitch of Greek.

 Stoked to finally be skiing powder. Even the lake effect this year has been nill. I can almost always get my pow fix up North with LES in lean years. Not this year. Snowmobilers must've been bumming. At least they make "snow" for us.

Sent from my Moto E (4) Plus using AlpineZone mobile app


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## Kleetus (Jan 19, 2019)

BenedictGomez said:


> You'd need to know which model is going to be correct. lol
> 
> This is the NAM's window, and per the NAM Gore or WF or n.VT would stay all snow, Cats and s.VT would have sleet issues.
> 
> ...


Just be advised. Gore was VERY icy/hard packed today. Was still decent, but not skiing as good as say Killington or north in VT would be right now. If they get the 16"-20"+ advertised should be amazing, but if not....

Not many glades open today, BUT great base in the woods. As long as they get at least 12" out of this everything *should* all open up. Just pray the lifties show up and stuff opens on time. Gore has been having staffing and lift issues this season (mainly the gondola). Traditionally after a big storm there they can take a long time to open stuff up, but with it being a holiday weekend may not be the case this time.

In any case. I will be gunning for first chair tomorrow.

Sent from my SM-G892A using AlpineZone mobile app


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## drjeff (Jan 19, 2019)

Mount Snow, after the machine groomed stuff got skied off in the 10-11AM time frame, got slick today...  Fresh corduroy on Ripcord just after 8, was AWESOME!!

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## WWF-VT (Jan 19, 2019)

2 degrees and it's been snowing since  2 PM here at the base of Mt Ellen....


----------



## ss20 (Jan 19, 2019)

So far upper-level cold is staying put longer than expected.  I'd say SoVt is almost a lock to be all-snow at this point.  They were going to be pretty safe unless the warm air was coming in faster than modeled, but the opposite actually looks to be the case.  

Still a very uncertain 12 hour period remains for the Catskills and Berkshires.


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## 180 (Jan 19, 2019)

how much you got so far



WWF-VT said:


> 2 degrees and it's been snowing since  2 PM here at the base of Mt Ellen....


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## drjeff (Jan 20, 2019)

Going to go shovel what looks to be about a foot, and counting, right now (6AM) at Mount Snow - no mixing yet, 15 degrees on the back deck thermometer

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## Cornhead (Jan 20, 2019)

Shoveled about 7-8" heavy snow in the rain at 5AM. Hoping for better and more on the hill.

Sent from my Moto E (4) Plus using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## 180 (Jan 20, 2019)

Warm air punched to the Cats, about 10" and sleet\ rain now.  Looks cold all around us....


----------



## WWF-VT (Jan 20, 2019)

180 said:


> how much you got so far



8 degrees and 10+ inches of snow at 7:30 AM...time to go skiing


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## Glenn (Jan 20, 2019)

Here in the southern part of central CT it's been freezing rain for some time. Looks really pretty...but I'm nervous about the wind later. We had about 3" of snow before it changed over. 

Based on the webcams at our place in SoVT...10-12" of snow? I really need to upgrade those for better detailed viewing in situations like these :lol: 

Stratton is talking possible lift delays with the wind; Mount Snow has some lifts on windhold now. 

Looks like some mixing may occur into SoVT and the Greens. Hoping it won't last long...or not happen at all.


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## Kleetus (Jan 20, 2019)

At least 15" here at Gore and still dumping. Go get it!

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## kingslug (Jan 20, 2019)

Y'all can thank me later for leaving..


----------



## machski (Jan 20, 2019)

drjeff said:


> Going to go shovel what looks to be about a foot, and counting, right now (6AM) at Mount Snow - no mixing yet, 15 degrees on the back deck thermometer
> 
> Sent from my Moto Z (2) using AlpineZone mobile app


The thermometer at low elevation means nothing today.  In So.NH, it's 14 at my house and heavy sleet!

Sent from my Pixel 3 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## tnt1234 (Jan 20, 2019)

Plattekill and Belleayre reporting a little mixed precipitation right now, but both claim around 12+" and are 100% open.  

Bummed to have bailed, but life got in the way....hope you guys have great days out there.


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## jg17 (Jan 20, 2019)

Thinking I made the right call skipping today. Everything around here is slop, and we only got maybe 2" before the rain. Detachables are all on hold due to icing. Even up at Hunter, North and West sides are still on hold, and the Flyer was held until about 10:15. With cold temps rolling back in, everything will be a skating rink pretty soon.

Time to start looking towards (a hopefully slightly more viable...) next weekend and then heading west in two weeks...


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## drjeff (Jan 20, 2019)

Mount Snow went over to sleet about 8:30, then back to snow about noon. Haven't looked at their official reported total yet, but 14-15 and counting I would estimate based on what I skied in all over the hill!!

Some "waves" from the drifting on Little Dipper in the pic below

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## JimG. (Jan 20, 2019)

kingslug said:


> Y'all can thank me later for leaving..



Ha! I was going to text you to see if you had left town.

K tomorrow and Tues for me.


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## Glenn (Jan 20, 2019)

Ended up with a lot of ice here in CT. A little nervous about the wind that'll be rolling in this evening. I heard a few branches snapping when I was outside clearing snow.


----------



## Cornhead (Jan 20, 2019)

. 





kingslug said:


> Y'all can thank me later for leaving..


I'll thank you now, thanks! Greek got a foot. A little on the dense side. Good that it wasn't more of the same. I skied from 8:20-2:00, don't know how many runs, probably about 20. Twas good, especially early.

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## Warp Daddy (Jan 20, 2019)

Cornhead said:


> . I'll thank you now, thanks! Greek got a foot. A little on the dense side. Good that it wasn't more of the same. I skied from 8:20-2:00, don't know how many runs, probably about 20. Twas good, especially early.
> 
> Sent from my Moto E (4) Plus using AlpineZone mobile app



i got a foot of blower. In my yard overnight. Light n fluffy


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## medfordmike (Jan 20, 2019)

Central NH at my house got about a foot.  I hit the Skiway 9-1 since the trip to Pico would have taken too long and it looks like the Summit Quad was on hold. Sunapee also had holds.  A little frozen precip mid morning but it didn't deter anybody. I like the Skiway on powder days since it is low key but today it was busy.  Never had a line for the Holts double more than a chair or two until today.  It moved but they were even grouping people at Winslow early on which is a first.  They didn't open Holts until 11 so it was like repeating first tracks mid morning.  Around lunch it started to settle out as people more evenly distributed themselves.  Great morning and worth the slow crawl to get there from my weekend place.


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## ghughes20 (Jan 20, 2019)

Stratton had 11" as I went out the door at 8am.  Like Mt. Snow, we also had some icy bits mixed in, not exactly sleet as it wasn't wet, but harder than snow.  It started snowing again pretty hard around noon and is just now tapering off.  I would guess we got 18" in total.

The powder this morning was strangely heavy, I guess due to the icy bits.  The mountain was transformed by 11am and covered with soft bumps.  No lift lines after 11am.

The Gondola opened late, but otherwise all lifts were running and the Summit was accessible by Ursa or Snow Bowl Lift at the start.

My legs are tired and I need a beer.


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## Zand (Jan 20, 2019)

Booked a room in Warren tomorrow night. Sugarbush tomorrow and MRG Tuesday...looks like both got 18" today.


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## WWF-VT (Jan 20, 2019)

A+ day today at Mt Ellen !  High of 10 degrees and it snowed until about 3 PM.  My guess is 15-18" new snow, minimal lines and I hit some deep woods runs.   At 4 PM the winds have picked up and the thermometer on my deck says it's 6 below zero.


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## HowieT2 (Jan 20, 2019)

WWF-VT said:


> A+ day today at Mt Ellen !  High of 10 degrees and it snowed until about 3 PM.  My guess is 15-18" new snow, minimal lines and I hit some deep woods runs.   At 4 PM the winds have picked up and the thermometer on my deck says it's 6 below zero.



Same at Lincoln peak.  There was about a foot before I got to the mtn at 7:30 and it’s snowed steadily until I got back to the car at 2:30.  Easily another 6” on the car.  There is tons of snow everywhere on the mtn.  I hit some low elevation woods on my way in for the day and it’s deep.


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## parahelia (Jan 20, 2019)

Skied Sunday River today - report says 18” and that sounds about right.  There was an hour or two of sleet in the afternoon before it switched back to snow.

Conditions were amazing everywhere - deep and not too heavy.  Crowds were minimal, though I did have to wait a few minutes at Oz in late morning.  No wind holds anywhere I went.

Tomorrow should be a great day in the woods!


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## gmcunni (Jan 20, 2019)

Ouch


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## Jully (Jan 20, 2019)

gmcunni said:


> Ouch
> View attachment 24492



Tough, but very much the right call. I can't imagine working a full day in those conditions at the summit.


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## kingslug (Jan 20, 2019)

JimG. said:


> Ha! I was going to text you to see if you had left town.
> 
> K tomorrow and Tues for me.


I done did..ppretty warm here at JH..heavy snow and moguls..moguls..moguls...was interesting flying doen those on my new gigantic Head skis


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## Kleetus (Jan 20, 2019)

Gore was...EPIC today 22" of medium to light density pow. Good crowd but they spread out. Being the first-fifth set of tracks down many of the Burnt Ridge glades was a huge highlight

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## gregnye (Jan 20, 2019)

Magic was awesome today!! 17 inches and no lifts were on wind hold! It was crowded in line at the bottom, but the runs were not crowded (double chairs are the limiting factor). I was finding untracked snow even at 4pm!

Both the red chair and the green lift worked hard today. With an entirely full set of chairs the chair is surprisingly close to the ground!


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## Smellytele (Jan 20, 2019)

Cannon while crowded this am with wind holds. Skied great all day. No wetness.


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## deadheadskier (Jan 20, 2019)

Whaleback was great today. Only slightest amount of mixing.  Such a fun place when 100% open.  Longest line was maybe 8 chairs

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## ERJ-145CA (Jan 20, 2019)

In NW Jersey about 10 minutes from Mountain Creek we got about 4" of snow followed by freezing rain.  It never really warmed up like they were predicting so there was no regular rain.  Currently 10 degrees and dropping so good snowmaking weather tonight.

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## Glenn (Jan 21, 2019)

Sounds like this really delivered! Will certainly be a cold one today. Stay warm! It's -2 in the flatlands now. Can't tell you what the windchill is because the wind cups are frozen on my weather station. 

Thursday isn't looking so hot. Can't we just get some snow that lasts please?


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## Ol Dirty Noodle (Jan 21, 2019)

I’m on the thruway now, windy as fuck and GPS is saying I have to take the ferry at Plattsburgh[emoji848]


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## tnt1234 (Jan 21, 2019)

%$%$^%$^!!!!!!  Rain in teh forecast for weds/thurs???  Come on!  Can't we leave all this snow alone for a G_D week????


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## kingslug (Jan 21, 2019)

Head north..all snow predicted up there..


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## tnt1234 (Jan 21, 2019)

kingslug said:


> Head north..all snow predicted up there..



I'm seeing rain even for stowe.

Anyway, can only ski saturday, so hoping to drive friday night after work, ski, drive home.  s. vt would be about as far as i want to go.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 21, 2019)

tnt1234 said:


> *I'm seeing rain even for stowe.*



GFS is horrendous for everyone.

Canadian is horrendous for everyone.

NAM is horrendous for most, though perhaps not so bad very far north, like WF, JP, Smuggs/Stowe.


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## machski (Jan 21, 2019)

tnt1234 said:


> I'm seeing rain even for stowe.
> 
> Anyway, can only ski saturday, so hoping to drive friday night after work, ski, drive home.  s. vt would be about as far as i want to go.


The reality is while this storm delivered for ski country North, the forecast was way off to the South.  Up to a good 24 hours prior, the mix/icing zone in New England at least was suppose to be narrow.  Well, that didn't happen and the icing zone was huge.  Thankfully a lot of that zone stayed totally sleet which is not as bad from a power outage issue.

So, with that said, I wouldn't get too stuck on the upcoming Wednesday/Thursday thing.  At the least, ski country starts as a good amount of snow if it does mix/change.  But history shows big, vigorous storms like this weekend's are often the result of an active and changeable jet stream.  With the East's relatively low altitudes, that means get it when it hits.

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## abc (Jan 21, 2019)

I still see ice hanging on tree limbs here in mid-Hudson valley (Westchester/Putnam border). 

Fortunately the tree limbs are staying on the trees (so far, it's windy as well so it just takes one to break away).


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## RustyGroomer (Jan 21, 2019)

gregnye said:


> Magic was awesome today!! 17 inches and no lifts were on wind hold! It was crowded in line at the bottom, but the runs were not crowded (double chairs are the limiting factor). I was finding untracked snow even at 4pm!
> 
> Both the red chair and the green lift worked hard today. With an entirely full set of chairs the chair is surprisingly close to the ground!


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## Zand (Jan 21, 2019)

At sugarbush now...just valley house spinning as far as interesting terrain goes. More than enough for the few runs I'm skiing. Good news is I'm going to MRG tomorrow and they didn't even open today so...freshies!


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## Smellytele (Jan 21, 2019)

Cannon was fun today. Peabody and cannonball didn’t run but mittersill,zoomer and the tram ran so all could be skied. Light snow all day after getting 14-18” yesterday / last night.


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## Glenn (Jan 21, 2019)

I took a look at the Stratton summit weather station around 4:30 today....-53F windchill. Yikes. 

Still tons of ice in the flatlands.


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## Smellytele (Jan 21, 2019)

Glenn said:


> I took a look at the Stratton summit weather station around 4:30 today....-53F windchill. Yikes.
> 
> Still tons of ice in the flatlands.



Cannon had -53 windchill today as well 


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## jg17 (Jan 21, 2019)

ERJ-145CA said:


> In NW Jersey about 10 minutes from Mountain Creek we got about 4" of snow followed by freezing rain.  It never really warmed up like they were predicting so there was no regular rain.  Currently 10 degrees and dropping so good snowmaking weather tonight.
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using AlpineZone mobile app



I don't believe they've been blowing though, maybe because of the wind. Heard yesterday was an absolute disaster. Started the day with Cab/South/Bear/Granite on hold. South finally opened around 1:30, but by then everything had frozen solid and it was just frozen corduroy. Granite and Bear stayed closed all day, and I heard most of what was open was a skating rink. Glad I skipped.


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