# Monday and Tuesday Dec17 and 18 snow is possible



## ScottySkis (Dec 13, 2012)

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?...38929122.42608.122106561217057&type=1&theater


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## kingslug (Dec 13, 2012)

Looking good...


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## Euler (Dec 13, 2012)

Fingers Crossed!


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## Puck it (Dec 13, 2012)

I am liking this forecast from Winny on Tuesday for Cannon.  You know where I will be.


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## drjeff (Dec 13, 2012)

Looks like with the Sunday evening/Monday event that the primary low will start to track towards the general Buffalo area with a secondary low forming off the Jersey Coast.  As the primary low transfers its energy the the offshore secondary low, it should intensify, but likely not start to really intensify for a host of reasons until it gets into the Gulf of Maine.  Western Maine and Northern NH look like they'll make out best from this one, but it doesn't look like it will be anything monsterous as it will rapidly move away, and clear out for the much more interesting possible Nor'easter mid next week.  That one looks like it will have much more potential energy! 

Cold air might be an issue for both of the next systems, as while it will be inplace, it doesn't look like it will be real cold, so atleast in more Southern locations some mixing might be an issue.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 13, 2012)

The 12z GFS just crushed the much bigger potential storm for next week and dragged it out to sea.   Hopefully it's wrong and the Euro will continue to show the monster snowstorm.


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## mriceyman (Dec 13, 2012)

hope we get plowable snow in jersey then head up north when im done my route! ahh i need a powder day for my new skis to be christened.


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## St. Bear (Dec 13, 2012)

I can almost guarantee there will be a decent storm next week.  I'm driving up to NH on Saturday for Christmas with the extended family.  I'm skiing on Sunday morning before everyone comes over, and driving back to Jersey on Monday.  I have a history of driving home from ski trips in the snow, so you can thank me later.


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## drjeff (Dec 13, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> The 12z GFS just crushed the much bigger potential storm for next week and dragged it out to sea. Hopefully it's wrong and the Euro will continue to show the monster snowstorm.



I read a funny little tidbit on a meterology forum today about next weeks potential storm and the amount of uncertainty about it currently - to paraphrase:  The models take the storm anywhere between Buffalo and Bermuda with the ability to produce anything from a few flurries to a few feet! :lol:  

I'm not going to spend too much time dreaming and hypothesizing about this one until we're first done with the small event Sunday/Monday


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## Puck it (Dec 13, 2012)

I am ready if it does.


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## 4aprice (Dec 13, 2012)

drjeff said:


> I read a funny little tidbit on a meterology forum today about next weeks potential storm and the amount of uncertainty about it currently - to paraphrase:  The models take the storm anywhere between Buffalo and Bermuda with the ability to produce anything from a few flurries to a few feet! :lol:
> 
> I'm not going to spend too much time dreaming and hypothesizing about this one until we're first done with the small event Sunday/Monday



Wouldn't get too up or down at this point.  Models love to lose events and then bring them back as it gets closer. (its hard to pin down energy coming off the Pacific where there are few instruments ie not enough data).  Longer term, at least there are signals for good cold.

On a side note, I'm still optimistic about the up coming winter regardless of what happens next week.  Got a cat who was very thin last winter and during the warm season who has bulked up big time this late fall.  Not scientific but I take it as a good sign.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 13, 2012)

drjeff said:


> *I'm not going to spend too much time dreaming and hypothesizing about this* one until we're first done with the small event Sunday/Monday



I cant help myself.

And that EURO solo run was an outlier, the ensemble keeps it pretty similar to yesterday, with literally everyone (Poconos, Cats, Dax, Greens, NH, ME) winning.

I'm still sticking to the most accurate model for this being a substantial snowstorm - my leaving for FL the day after.


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## billski (Dec 13, 2012)

It's all base building in my book, since I can't get out anyways!

BG I think you are looking at the wrong models :grin:


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## ScottySkis (Dec 13, 2012)

4aprice said:


> Wouldn't get too up or down at this point.  Models love to lose events and then bring them back as it gets closer. (its hard to pin down energy coming off the Pacific where there are few instruments ie not enough data).  Longer term, at least there are signals for good cold.
> 
> On a side note, I'm still optimistic about the up coming winter regardless of what happens next week.  Got a cat who was very thin last winter and during the warm season who has bulked up big time this late fall.  Not scientific but I take it as a good sign.
> 
> ...





I hope so. My cousins dogs are both 30% over their body weight supposed to be but that is because we don't have a yard for them to exercise yet.


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## kingslug (Dec 14, 2012)

Just looked at the NOAA forecast for Hunter..it changed from snow to freezing rain and sleet for the whole weekend...just can't win anymore...


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## drjeff (Dec 14, 2012)

kingslug said:


> Just looked at the NOAA forecast for Hunter..it changed from snow to freezing rain and sleet for the whole weekend...just can't win anymore...



The one thing that I have noticed now for the last few years, is that with long range modeling programs, is that far out they tend to overplay both the quantity of cold air and also how cold the air will be, especially early season when the waters of the Atlantic are still pretty warm.  As the system gets closer and the models begin to come together in agreement, then they seem to start to pick up on the fact that that air over the Atlantic and the water that gets picked up and incorporated into the system is much "warmer" and as such that line from all snow to mix tends to migrate North and West, even with a favorable storm track.  Come late January and February when the waters of the Atlantic tend to be "cold" that's when anecdotally I've noticed that the frozen precip areas tend to be more consistant a long way out


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## kingslug (Dec 14, 2012)

I've only managed to get 1 day in so far, usualy would have at least 4 or 5...and that was at Killington on only a few runs open...the times..they are a changing...


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## Glenn (Dec 14, 2012)

Two decent storms the week before Christmas would result in some nice business for the ski areas during Christmas week. Hoping it happens!


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## billski (Dec 14, 2012)

Glenn said:


> Two decent storms the week before Christmas would result in some nice business for the ski areas during Christmas week. Hoping it happens!


Great point Glenn.  Get 'em out and let them pack it down so we've got a nice base to work with.  I'll get to it on January 2nd!


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## ScottySkis (Dec 14, 2012)

Snowforecast.com is saying MountSnow to get 8-11 inches of snow on Sunday is that correct?


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## Puck it (Dec 15, 2012)

I don't think winny's site is right. The forecast for Cannon totals like 30" from Sunday to Thurs.


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## octopus (Dec 15, 2012)

idk, i just checked snowforecast.com and they said 18" to "22 for bretton woods on tues alone...and i have weds off.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 15, 2012)

octopus said:


> idk, i just checked snowforecast.com and they said 18" to "22 for bretton woods on tues alone...and i have weds off.





I would check other ski forecasts sites, Mr. winnchill is a great

 Forecasting but they website that was relaunched still having issues unfortunately I'm sure once they get fixed it will be great and he got some family stuff going on, NOAA is now saying north easter storm may not happen latter this week.


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## Puck it (Dec 15, 2012)

octopus said:


> idk, i just checked snowforecast.com and they said 18" to "22 for bretton woods on tues alone...and i have weds off.


Cannon website is saying Thurs or Fri for storm.


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 15, 2012)

Some bad news, and some good news:



> The  DEC 18-19 looks weaker and even more inland than before. Several days  ago the model data suggested a midwest low into the ohio valley then  redeveloping off the New England coast... But  earlier in the week....  The models took the low just offshore  and intensifed it. That idea is no longer vakid as all the data has  shifted the low inland... Thus means *rain for EVERYONE  almost everyone  in New England dec 19*
> 
> SECOND.....  THE *ARCTIC  COLD FRONT for DEC 20-21*....looked to come through with a  weak surface low on the front over the great lakes. ... Which would bomb  out off the se new england coast DEC 20-21.   The new data shows the  ARCTIC FRONT STILL ARRIVES  but   the low kn the front becomes MAJOR  over WI ILL and MI DEC  20...bringing HEAVY SNOW to IA MN WI eastern dakotas and western MI...  RAIN to eastern ILL...IN... OH that turns to snow... Followed by HIGH  WINDS.... The ARCTIC front reaches the East coast DEC 21... with rain  tover the east coast  that MIGHT end as SNOW.  *****BUT over new england  the big LOW over MI moves east into upstate NY then NEW ENGLAND. This  will bring moderate to heavy snow to much of new england DEC 21-22*



The models have flip-flopped dramatically on this and literally, dramatically almost every day, pegging the storm from Illinois to OTS, so WTH knows what will really happen, but the guy who posted this I find to be much more knowledgeable/accurate than the average met.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 15, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> Some bad news, and some good news:
> 
> 
> 
> The models have flip-flopped dramatically on this and literally, dramatically almost every day, pegging the storm from Illinois to OTS, so WTH knows what will really happen, but the guy who posted this I find to be much more knowledgeable/accurate than the average met.





Wetherchannel on cable is saying for next Friday storm that high peaks of Green and Whites might get snow but think everyone else will get rain.


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## WinnChill (Dec 15, 2012)

Scotty said:


> I would check other ski forecasts sites, Mr. winnchill is a great
> 
> Forecasting but they website that was relaunched still having issues unfortunately I'm sure once they get fixed it will be great and he got some family stuff going on, NOAA is now saying north easter storm may not happen latter this week.



Yeah, sorry guys, have to sit this one out...death in the family.  New England sites are on autopilot.  Enjoy this week's storms--I'll be back soon.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 15, 2012)

I'm really sorry about your loss Winn RIp no worries about forecasting I will figure it out.


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## Nick (Dec 16, 2012)

So where are you guys skiing this week? Looks like rain in my hometown :/ tomorrow is out but I might get out Tuesday


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 16, 2012)

Very sorry to hear that


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## steamboat1 (Dec 16, 2012)

Nick said:


> So where are you guys skiing this week? Looks like rain in my hometown :/ tomorrow is out but I might get out Tuesday



I'll be at K tomorrow through Wednesday. Hoping any precipitation that falls is crystallized.


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## Huck_It_Baby (Dec 16, 2012)

Nick said:


> So where are you guys skiing this week? Looks like rain in my hometown :/ tomorrow is out but I might get out Tuesday



I'm watching where the snow falls. Forecasts seem all over the place...rain, sleet, snow. This one seems hard to pin point.

 I'm thinking Wed is going to be the best day to catch a little powder.


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## Puck it (Dec 16, 2012)

Huck_It_Baby said:


> I'm watching where the snow falls. Forecasts seem all over the place...rain, sleet, snow. This one seems hard to pin point.
> 
> I'm thinking Wed is going to be the best day to catch a little powder.



Really.  I am thinking tomorrow at Cannon calling for 4-7.  Not much on Wed though.


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## crank (Dec 17, 2012)

I am at Jay Peak and they got about 4" overnight...still snowing lightly.  All the forecasts have it warming up and a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rein coming in starting later today.  Some forecasts have it becoming all rain on Tuesday.  We were thinking we had hit it at the right time but we may have been wrong.  Oh well, going to get ready to ski now.  Windy here, of course.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 17, 2012)

Sugarloaf saying they go 6 inches and are going to get another 6-8 more coming. Mount Snow got 3 inches at the top.


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## Johnskiismore (Dec 17, 2012)

8" at Loon today, pretty sweet!


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## Puck it (Dec 17, 2012)

Johnskiismore said:


> 8" at Loon today, pretty sweet!


Really my daughter and I were at Cannon. Their snow got blown all over.  It was icy at lunch. Daughter fell and was down.


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## Johnskiismore (Dec 17, 2012)

Puck it said:


> Really my daughter and I were at Cannon. Their snow got blown all over.  It was icy at lunch. Daughter fell and was down.



It was windy on North Peak, and Upper Flume had some 'surprise' ice patches under the POW. U/L Walking Boss held up great!  Fresh snow to be skied all over in the morning.  Hardly anyone over at the West Basin, Rumrunner was a blast until after one when it got scraped up a bit. 

South peak should be set to go by this weekend.

Rain, stay the f(&* away


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## salsgang (Dec 17, 2012)

From Matt Noyes at NECN.

@MaineSkiFamily is at DEFCON 3.


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## riverc0il (Dec 17, 2012)

Damn. 2+ feet of dense show should just about open everything up!


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## octopus (Dec 17, 2012)

looks like a nice little plop in the mt washington area, too. can't really tell tho.


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## tiger5236 (Dec 18, 2012)

im ready for snow


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## redwinger (Dec 18, 2012)

What's the scoop today?  Is it raining or snowing in NH?  Loon says they got 4"...but that's hard to believe when every weather report says rain.


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