# MLK Sunday / Monday (1/17 - 1/18) Storm Discussion Thread



## WJenness (Jan 14, 2010)

So what's going to happen Monday night into anything? I just noticed that crapuweather is calling for 8-12" of heavy snow Sunday night into Monday for Newry, ME.

What do all you weather geeks out there have to say?

-w


----------



## billski (Jan 15, 2010)

*Nws*

NWS Takes a more reasonable approach:

A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL THREATEN SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE SUN INTO MON WITH THE RISK OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR A PORTION OF THE REGION...BUT THE STORM TRACK AND SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.-- End Changed Discussion --

If this does indeed develop, I may be getting a tad sick on Tuesday...


----------



## hammer (Jan 15, 2010)

From the latest NWS discussion: 



> ALL OF THIS POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME RANGE /EVENT STILL 72 HRS AWAY/ THE GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY WET SNOW APPEARS FROM NORTHERN CT EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN RI /POSSIBLY INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA/ AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE I495 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST MA AND POINTS NORTHWEST INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS. LESS QPF IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHWEST MA. THE MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARD WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE HEAVY WET SNOW AND POSSIBLE DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES.  THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CT/NW RI AND THE WORCESTER HILLS MAY BE MOST VULNERABLE. SOUTHEAST MA MAY ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO POWER OUTAGES IF STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MATERIALIZES.


Looks like lots of heavy stuff near home but none where it counts...:???:


----------



## billski (Jan 15, 2010)

hammer said:


> From the latest NWS discussion:
> 
> Looks like lots of heavy stuff near home but none where it counts...:???:


 'cept maybe Sundown and Thunderbolt 

As of Tuesday, Josh Fox thinks this is a bust for snow.   Want to hear his updated thinking 3 days later.

Matt Noyes appears to be AWOL, reportedly on the west coast.


----------



## soulseller (Jan 15, 2010)

billski said:


> 'cept maybe Sundown and Thunderbolt
> 
> As of Tuesday, Josh Fox thinks this is a bust for snow.   Want to hear his updated thinking 3 days later.
> 
> Matt Noyes appears to be AWOL, reportedly on the west coast.



New post is up, nothing special this weekend, and ~6" Monday morning. 

The good news is the monster lining up over the sierras right now (they are calling for 8-12' from Monday-Thursday) may make it over here for next weekend.


----------



## Euler (Jan 15, 2010)

Things are looking up for SoVT!  This from the 11PM discussion out of NWS Albany office:




> SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
> SOUTHERN VERMONT...
> 
> ...STORM TOTAL SNOW AMTS APPROACH
> WRNG AMTS OVER SRN VERMONT..



I'm keeping my fingers crossed!


----------



## deadheadskier (Jan 15, 2010)

A foot in Danbury, NH would do wonders.  Especially wet heavy snow.  Love the POW, but my mountain needs some base in the woods to open things up and last a while.


----------



## billski (Jan 16, 2010)

I'm looking seriously at SoVT for Monday.  Be watching this progress all day today.


----------



## STREETSKIER (Jan 16, 2010)

Josh fox is a jersey skier....


----------



## mlctvt (Jan 16, 2010)

Accuweather is forecasting 4"-8" Sunday night for southern VT. 
NOAA is forecasting mixed precip. Hopefully any mix will be at low elevations.
Snow showers for therest of the week through Thursday so we could pick up a few more inches there too.


----------



## Johnskiismore (Jan 16, 2010)

A few inches would be nice, currently 45F here........


----------



## billski (Jan 16, 2010)

Taunton NWS is stickking their neck out:


----------



## polski (Jan 16, 2010)

Matt Noyes saying parts of eastern New England could see a foot of pasty snow. I'd take it. North country might miss out on this one but apparently has a couple shots at decent snow later this week.


----------



## billski (Jan 16, 2010)

wawa might win on Monday.


----------



## Greg (Jan 17, 2010)

Wow! Albany NWS has 3-5" for Sundown and Taunton is calling for 3-7"! Better than the predominantly rain event they were predicting...


----------



## billski (Jan 17, 2010)

Greg said:


> Wow! Albany NWS has 3-5" for Sundown and Taunton is calling for 3-7"! Better than the predominantly rain event they were predicting...


 
This is a hard one to predict.  The accumulations have a high degree of variability since we are so close to the freezing mark.  I've watched the forecasts change every six hours.  I'm seriously thinking about pre-positioning myself some place tonight so I avoid driving during the changeover.  I'll make a final call around noontime.  

Based on temps alone, I may find myself at a southern VT resort with a red chair, even though there will be higher accums to the SE.  

I am expecting high moisture content, heavy snow.  Staring at waxes right now.


----------



## Greg (Jan 17, 2010)

6-10" on the Thunderbolt. Just sayin....


----------



## billski (Jan 17, 2010)

Greg said:


> 6-10" on the Thunderbolt. Just sayin....


Would be perfect. 
Seems everything is going right for them!


----------



## billski (Jan 17, 2010)

Albany has something interesting to say this morning at 8:45 am.   Looking for a little mountain Magic out of this.
Just about to pull the trigger on a destination.

 FURTHER
EAST...4-10" INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN
MA...WITH 3-6" IN VALLEYS. WE STILL AS MUCH AS 6"-12" COULD
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHEST CATSKILLS.

BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY NOW REMAINS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AND THE ULTIMATE LIQUID TO SNOW
RATIO. IF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHERE TO BE EVEN A LITTLE HEAVIER
THAN WE NOW THINK...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD EASILY EXCEED THE 7 INCH
AMOUNT (IN 12 HOURS) OR EVEN 9 INCH AMOUNT (IN 24) 

SNOW RATIOS COULD VARY QUITE A BIT
WITH THIS STORM...INITIALLY CLOSER TO A 5:1 LIQUID TO SNOW
RATIO...BUT ENDING UP CLOSER TO 10:1 IN THE VALLEY BY LATE

NIGHT...AND 12:1 HIGHER TERRAIN.


----------



## polski (Jan 17, 2010)

I'm looking at that latest NWS snow forecast map showing me sitting right in that 11.0 bullseye in NE Mass and thinking it might be a good opportunity to earn turns locally, which also would mean no nasty drive. But several other options, including Magic, are tempting ... I'm not in a position to pre-position so doubt I'll make a call until well after the snow starts flying.


----------



## billski (Jan 17, 2010)

polski said:


> I'm looking at that latest NWS snow forecast map showing me sitting right in that 11.0 bullseye in NE Mass and thinking it might be a good opportunity to earn turns locally, which also would mean no nasty drive. But several other options, including Magic, are tempting ... I'm not in a position to pre-position so doubt I'll make a call until well after the snow starts flying.


 
The problem with your locale, you know, is that every place nearby is going to be mobbed.


----------



## wa-loaf (Jan 17, 2010)

billski said:


> The problem with your locale, you know, is that every place nearby is going to be mobbed.



A stormy morning will keep folks away for a while. Re-evaluating my options ...


----------



## billski (Jan 17, 2010)

Matt is live streaming an analysis right now.   Looks like a lot of volatility in the forecast, but north of I-90 is key.


----------



## billski (Jan 17, 2010)

Pulled the trigger.
Will be at Magic MLK Monday.   

http://forums.alpinezone.com/showthread.php?p=501534#post501534

If you show, give a shout!


----------



## wa-loaf (Jan 17, 2010)

billski said:


> Pulled the trigger.
> Will be at Magic MLK Monday.
> 
> http://forums.alpinezone.com/showthread.php?p=501534#post501534
> ...



The NECN forcast has only 3-6" for that area. 10-12" here in Worcester county. And a pretty steep drop-off when you get north of Manchester.


----------



## billski (Jan 17, 2010)

wa-loaf said:


> The NECN forcast has only 3-6" for that area. 10-12" here in Worcester county. And a pretty steep drop-off when you get north of Manchester.


 
Could be, but I believe in Mountain magic. Besides the last thing I want is to ski with 10,000 of my closest friends at wawa or crotch on MLK weekend. Did you watch Matt's assessment? There is still a wide degree of variability in it all. I'm prepositioning so I don't have to deal with the drive.
Besides, I've friends in the area to visit afterwards.
Happy to flip the dice, sometimes I lose, but sometimes when I win, I win pretty big.


----------



## billski (Jan 17, 2010)

The best analysis I've seen today comes from the eastern wx forum:

"What a tough forecast..basically until it gets going noone is going to know for sure WTF will happen"


----------



## riverc0il (Jan 17, 2010)

Just started snowing big flakes here in Ashland. Already coming down at a pretty good clip. Surprised this is getting going so early up here....


----------



## polski (Jan 17, 2010)

billski said:


> The problem with your locale, you know, is that every place nearby is going to be mobbed.


Not the places that aren't lift-served ;-)


----------



## billski (Jan 17, 2010)

polski said:


> Not the places that aren't lift-served ;-)


  I shouldn't have to say that now, should I???


----------



## wa-loaf (Jan 17, 2010)

Raining here. 

Hope it doesn't last too long.


----------



## WakeboardMom (Jan 17, 2010)

wa-loaf said:


> Raining here.
> 
> Hope it doesn't last too long.



HUH!?!?  Didn't you post earlier today that you're supposed to get a significant accumulation of fluffy white stuff?

I think we're supposed to get like 8 inches here on the MA/NH border...?


----------



## wa-loaf (Jan 17, 2010)

WakeboardMom said:


> HUH!?!?  Didn't you post earlier today that you're supposed to get a significant accumulation of fluffy white stuff?
> 
> I think we're supposed to get like 8 inches here on the MA/NH border...?



That's still the forecast, but really depends on when/where the temp changes. Still mid 30's here.


----------



## WakeboardMom (Jan 17, 2010)

wa-loaf said:


> That's still the forecast, but really depends on when/where the temp changes. Still mid 30's here.




Yeah...it is here too...


----------



## deadheadskier (Jan 17, 2010)

anyone got an updated accumulation map?


----------



## Euler (Jan 17, 2010)

snowing in Putney,VT


----------



## wa-loaf (Jan 17, 2010)

deadheadskier said:


> anyone got an updated accumulation map?


----------



## deadheadskier (Jan 17, 2010)

Looks like Gunstock might be a good option for tomorrow.

Wish the dark Blue was just a bit further northwest.  8-10 inches of heavy wet and most of the glades will open at Ragged.


----------



## riverc0il (Jan 17, 2010)

I wouldn't trust that Accuweather map.

Billski's toolbox has the NWS maps for New England:
http://www.iabsi.com/public/ski/

And I trust NECN's mets who usually are accurate in their predictions with a regional focus on all of New England (map is in the video):
http://www.necn.com/weather

But these maps also don't take individual mountain elevation into consideration which is always something to consider as well.

The concensus so far seems to be north of Manchester/Concord area totals will drop off very sharply. 6" for Gunstock and Ragged does not seem out of the question though.


----------



## deadheadskier (Jan 17, 2010)

Even 6 inches might open some of the Ravine up.  While we haven't gotten any snow in the past two weeks, we really haven't lost any either.  Ski Patrol said it was plenty skiable, but wouldn't be after a couple hundred people go down it.

The good news is that it appears that once they do open glades, they tend to leave them open.  Tree Hugger is pretty boney in places right now, but still open.


----------



## WakeboardMom (Jan 17, 2010)

Wow.  I can't believe it took me so long to find this forum.  You gotta love a ski forum that takes Gunstock and Ragged seriously.  Amazing.  Thank you.


----------



## abc (Jan 17, 2010)

Mmm... looks like I'm too far north to benefit from the storm. 

But I'm now worry if I'll get salts on my wound by having to drive through all the yukky stuff on the way home...? 

Is the snow/freezing rain expect to stop by mid-afternoon/early evening? Or will it linger on? 

I'm trying to decide which way to go down by, 93 vs 91...


----------



## Greg (Jan 17, 2010)

Picked up a bit over an inch at Sundown this afternoon before the changeover to rain. Really don't think we'll see much more out of this one.


----------



## jack97 (Jan 18, 2010)

WakeboardMom said:


> Wow.  I can't believe it took me so long to find this forum.  You gotta love a ski forum that takes Gunstock and Ragged seriously.  Amazing.  Thank you.



Ragged was one of my favorite places, that place was great after a snow dump. I use to go there every w/e 4-5 years ago.

.......Only reason I don't go there anymore is that I got into bump skiing, haven't been back since. But I would consider it is they seed some bumps. Where do I sign the petition. Sorry for the hijack


----------



## deadheadskier (Jan 18, 2010)

jack97 said:


> Ragged was one of my favorite places, that place was great after a snow dump. I use to go there every w/e 4-5 years ago.
> 
> .......Only reason I don't go there anymore is that I got into bump skiing, haven't been back since. But I would consider it is they seed some bumps. Where do I sign the petition. Sorry for the hijack



I'll get a petition going.  :lol:  Skiers left of Showboat would be PERFECT.  Better pitch than Goose at Sunapee and about the same length and it has a ton of tower guns for refreshing.  I wouldn't care if they groomed the rest of the mountain flat as a pancake if they designated Showboat for bumps.


----------



## Mildcat (Jan 18, 2010)

deadheadskier said:


> Ski Patrol said it was plenty skiable, but wouldn't be after a couple hundred people go down it.



Sounds like ski patrol is trying to save it for themselves. :grin:


----------



## wa-loaf (Jan 18, 2010)

Got about 4 inches of dense snow.


----------

