# X-mas warm-up....



## tnt1234 (Dec 19, 2016)

How bad is it gonna be?

MRG guy talking about some rain around the 25, and more toward's NYE.  Ugh.

Experienced forum members, your thoughts?


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## Tin (Dec 19, 2016)

Hope everyone enjoyed early December! For precip...warm up with a couple of cutter chances. Maybe a couple inches in NVT and the Whites Thursday and a slim chance for a NNE event the 26th but that is about it as far as winter goes. We can hope the GFS north/west bias is on again as it has been for multiple systems this year. The NAM and RGEM have been very good but they only go inside a couple days+ out.

Long term I'm not exactly digging things the next few weeks but the cold is close by in eastern Canada.
Rest up for 2017!


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## ss20 (Dec 19, 2016)

Well, things are bulletproof now.  Only way skiing can be good with this snow is warm temps and sunshine.  40 degrees and bluebird skies.  Keeps the masses entertained and the hills busy.


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## 4aprice (Dec 19, 2016)

Tin said:


> Hope everyone enjoyed early December! For precip...warm up with a couple of cutter chances. Maybe a couple inches in NVT and the Whites Thursday and a slim chance for a NNE event the 26th but that is about it as far as winter goes. We can hope the GFS north/west bias is on again as it has been for multiple systems this year. The NAM and RGEM have been very good but they only go inside a couple days+ out.
> 
> Long term I'm not exactly digging things the next few weeks but the cold is close by in eastern Canada.
> Rest up for 2017!



I expect it will be a warm (not necessarily blowtorch) for the holidays, little natural, but good snowmaking nights.  Cold will be advertised for early January by the models 7 days out but won't actually show up till late January, so terrain expansion will be slow and people will have to stay away from the ledge.   Then snow and probably some more numbing cold before finally settling in for a rather pleasant final 6 to 8 weeks of the season. In other words a typical northeast season.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## dlague (Dec 19, 2016)

Wow sounds like the refreezing hardened all the good stuff on the trails.  That is unfortunate since once snow fall or new manmade covers it this will produce scraped off conditions early in the day for a while unless there is sustained cold.

The thaw always seems to hit around Xmas into the new year.

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## Smellytele (Dec 20, 2016)

Northern NH Looks to stay cold with a little snow 2/22 and even some 2/26


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## Tin (Dec 20, 2016)

Something sneaky might be going on...


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## wtcobb (Dec 21, 2016)

Sneaky good?


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## tnt1234 (Dec 21, 2016)

Josh Fox on twitter suggesting arctic air might thwart the first warm up, but probably not the second.  Tim Kelley likewise thinks we skate it, and good conditions will exist for X-mas, but doesn't go beyond that on STE update.

Dang...we're skiing right after the second potential thaw/rain....and then it looks to be single digits...

But weather.com doesn't look bad long term.  I know it's a long way out, but just holding on to hope.


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## Cornhead (Dec 21, 2016)

Aren't there apps we can use to track Tins whereabouts?

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## Tin (Dec 21, 2016)

Cornhead said:


> Aren't there apps we can use to track Tins whereabouts?
> 
> Sent from my XT1064 using AlpineZone mobile app




Amherst currently, last final exam today!  I've relied heavily on the hi res NAM/RGEM models thus far this year for all those snow days but Pico was a complete surprise.



wtcobb said:


> Sneaky good?





*Not buying into it yet *but the NAM hi res models have been bullet proof so far this year and AMAZING at forecasting upslope/LES/ and elevation events. Been showing this type of scenario for 6+ runs, it has cut back snow amounts a little.

Most models say it is too weak and does not have much moisture associated with it, but all suggest it has the concoction after it passes to result in blower some mountain snow. Wait and see...


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## tnt1234 (Dec 21, 2016)

What does your Magic Weather Machine say about tnt's 3 days at SB/MRG over NYE?


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## bdfreetuna (Dec 21, 2016)

Glad you shared that been looking for a Tropical Tidbits alternative for NAM 3k


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## Tin (Dec 21, 2016)

They just got it last week. Tropical still has the RGEM though.


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## Tin (Dec 21, 2016)

tnt1234 said:


> What does your Magic Weather Machine say about tnt's 3 days at SB/MRG over NYE?




No clue. Ask, yeggous he is the expert on all things weather.


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## Edd (Dec 21, 2016)

Tin said:


> No clue. Ask, yeggous he is the expert on all things weather.



I was asking him his opinion about the best weather app recently and he recommended simply going to Weather.gov. They must have an app, I thought. Looks like they don't. In fact, they recommend on their mobile site that you simply bookmark their site by adding it to your smartphone home screen like some kind of Amish person. However, it does appear to save the places you look up when you return to the site so it may be more user friendly than I initially thought.


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## Savemeasammy (Dec 21, 2016)

Edd said:


> ...they recommend on their mobile site that you simply bookmark their site by adding it to your smartphone home screen like some kind of Amish person.



Edd delivers.  Good one 


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## ScottySkis (Dec 21, 2016)

So what think tommorow Albert clipper will be more snow in Vermont south then Mountain sniw vs Hunter in Catskills.


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## slatham (Dec 21, 2016)

Some light snow Thursday and again Saturday. Nothing too significant (1-3" each) but will help resurface from last Sundays mess.

Monday night is non-frozen but looks to be quick, not too heavy, and right now mostly overnight.

Late next week storm is trending colder.

Overall warmer than normal but its late December so it can still end up cold enough and white!


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## slatham (Dec 21, 2016)

Actually the 12z euro for late next week just put a big smile on my face. But I am back down to earth as I count how many days away that is and remember my rule of late - believe no forecast that is more than 5 days.

But a guy can dream........


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## Tin (Dec 21, 2016)

slatham said:


> Actually the 12z euro for late next week just put a big smile on my face. But I am back down to earth as I count how many days away that is and remember my rule of late - believe no forecast that is more than 5 days.
> 
> But a guy can dream........




Yes. Amazing how that model has gone to crap though. Wouldnt mind seeing it be right on that one.  

Hi res still big on Thurs-Fri, RGEM a little better, and the GFS is trending better since last night. Definitely starved for moisture but the NAM solutions have upped things to half to an inch of QPF along the spine and in the Whites, would be 13:1 + ratio stuff that I'm not sure would open natural trails that lost a ton of snow. I'm more interested to see if the hi res models get this right again than skiing it at this point.


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## ALLSKIING (Dec 21, 2016)

tnt1234 said:


> What does your Magic Weather Machine say about tnt's 3 days at SB/MRG over NYE?


My guess would be to ski the Bush...MRG probably won't be great. 



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## bdfreetuna (Dec 22, 2016)

Well the NAM was too optimistic on last night/this morning.

Interesting the 12Z NAM 3k Conus is looking at 12" snow @ Mount Snow by Sunday (60 hour).

Weather Underground says 1-3". Hmm Hmm Hmm.


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## Tin (Dec 22, 2016)

Bush is up to 6" since last night, Jay at 3-5". NAM had it going through the low and upslope until early tomorrow morning. We shall see. My rule of thumb with the NAM models is cut off a third of the liquid. Could be close to right. It was the only thing that forecasted decent mountain snow.


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## tnt1234 (Dec 22, 2016)

Seems like things are generally a little more optimistic.  Still a warm up after X-mas, but chance for decent recovery on Thursday.  Gonna be cold come NYE, but hopefully that's on the heels of some snow.


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## Tin (Dec 22, 2016)

7" at the summit of Bush. Most others from K north saying 3-5" and it is still snowing up the spine. Ragged claiming 5". 


Better than expected.


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## dlague (Dec 22, 2016)

Tin said:


> 7" at the summit of Bush. Most others from K north saying 3-5" and it is still snowing up the spine. Ragged claiming 5".
> 
> 
> Better than expected.


That will help to cover the ice!

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## tnt1234 (Dec 23, 2016)

Dang...now that Thursday 12/29 precipitation is getting called wintery mix...crap.


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## ss20 (Dec 24, 2016)

tnt1234 said:


> Dang...now that Thursday 12/29 precipitation is getting called wintery mix...crap.



Depends on what you look at.  The Euro is holding steady with a coastal system that POUNDS New England with snow that might be measured in feet rather than inches depending on where you are.  The GFS is holding firm with "no soup for you" and has a quick band of rain/snow.  

The GFS has been pretty accurate this winter while the Euro has been even more snow-happy than usual, but it's a coastal so anything can happen...


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## ss20 (Dec 25, 2016)

Euro says Merry Christmas...


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## Tin (Dec 26, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Euro says Merry Christmas...
> 
> View attachment 21335




First time this year the GFS is trending towards the EURO slowly. Timing is BIG with this deal. 12Z NAM would throw tons of backside snow for the mountains.


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## skiberg (Dec 26, 2016)

Can it be an actual Neaster? How long has it been 20 months? 


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## bdfreetuna (Dec 26, 2016)

oh man that would be sweet. Doing Bolton Valley on the 1st and Sugarbush on the 2nd. Gonna be watching this closely!


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## NYDB (Dec 26, 2016)

thursday on looks like a solid pattern.


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## tnt1234 (Dec 27, 2016)

Wow - this is shaping up nicely.


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## dlague (Dec 27, 2016)

I just watched the WMUR weather report and saw the band of rain that went through and today it is above freezing everywhere.  Looks like a Refreeze for tomorrow so the snow coming Thursday 6" or so is timely.

You are in a rain, refreeze, snow and repeat pattern.  Cut it out! 

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## snoseek (Dec 27, 2016)

Well if the models stay true then things are about to get real nice. Maybe actually get some real snow in NH?


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## skiberg (Dec 27, 2016)

http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

That's a bit more than 6"


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## thebigo (Dec 27, 2016)

Beat GYX snowmap in the last couple years

http://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter


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## Jully (Dec 27, 2016)

thebigo said:


> Beat GYX snowmap in the last couple years
> 
> http://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter



Lets go!

Expecting at least 8-10" for most of ski country in NH!


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 27, 2016)

Bahhhh...  It is going to rain :wink:


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## dlague (Dec 27, 2016)

Well this is looking pretty sweet for all of you!







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## ALLSKIING (Dec 27, 2016)

dlague said:


> Well this is looking pretty sweet for all of you!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Sitting poised and ready at Killington for the week.

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## bdfreetuna (Dec 27, 2016)

Add 2-3" Saturday night lake effect to this.


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## bdfreetuna (Dec 27, 2016)

That's 16" up at Stowe.


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## JimG. (Dec 27, 2016)

Mont St Anne and Le Massif in Quebec getting slammed as well.


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## snoseek (Dec 27, 2016)

I sure do like the direction this thread is heading. I'm Storm skiing crotched Thursdays night (hopefully) and clearing everything that could interrupt skiing Sunday till Thursday. Work is dead and school is on break for a few more weeks.


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## bdfreetuna (Dec 28, 2016)

I just have to post it because it's INSANE

yeah that's 75" at Mt Washington... 41" Mansfield, 31" Bolton, 2 feet high elevation Greens, 2-3+ feet high elevation Whites.


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## wtcobb (Dec 28, 2016)

:-o


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## tnt1234 (Dec 28, 2016)

Hoy crap.

Leaving tomorrow.  Very hard to concentrate at work right now.  Can't wait for Friday morning....


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## Kleetus (Dec 28, 2016)

tnt1234 said:


> Hoy crap.
> 
> Leaving tomorrow.  Very hard to concentrate at work right now.  Can't wait for Friday morning....



Same here. Unfortunately I'm not able to make it out until after NYE due to prior commitments and not being able to get out of work Friday. 

Going to take it easy NYE and get up early Sunday to drive out to VT. K-Mart Sunday since it's a shorter drive. Monday not sure where, thinking Sugarbush if they get a nice dumping to open the natural back up.


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## SnowRider (Dec 28, 2016)

Does anyone who has more meteorological knowledge than I have an opinion on the snow totals for Sugarloaf/Sunday River area vs. Wildcat/Cannon? Trying to decide where to go, even though it's really going to be great everywhere.


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## Puck it (Dec 28, 2016)

SnowRider said:


> Does anyone who has more meteorological knowledge than I have an opinion on the snow totals for Sugarloaf/Sunday River area vs. Wildcat/Cannon? Trying to decide where to go, even though it's really going to be great everywhere.


Any where with glades.  All the snow is going into the woods.


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## dlague (Dec 28, 2016)

Puck it said:


> Any where with glades.  All the snow is going into the woods.


Yup this thing is gift wrapping the storm with high winds!

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## Cornhead (Dec 28, 2016)

tnt1234 said:


> Hoy crap.
> 
> Leaving tomorrow.  Very hard to concentrate at work right now.  Can't wait for Friday morning....


Wish I could leave early ahead of the snow, but I'll have to travel early Friday morning. Thinking of Bolton Valley, or Magic, have Bohemia comps for both. Maybe stay overnight and hit both.

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## tnt1234 (Dec 28, 2016)

Cornhead said:


> Wish I could leave early ahead of the snow, but I'll have to travel early Friday morning. Thinking of Bolton Valley, or Magic, have Bohemia comps for both. Maybe stay overnight and hit both.
> 
> Sent from my R1 HD using AlpineZone mobile app



Drive safe man....


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## Jully (Dec 28, 2016)

I'm driving up Thursday night. Trying to leave around 6 or so. Won't be too bad in MA (if it is even snow at that point in MA), parts of NH could be getting bad though.


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## benski (Dec 28, 2016)

Good thing I am going to Snowbird tomorrow. Last I checked the forecast it will be 38 the first day then only 2 inches over the course of the trip.


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## Cornhead (Dec 28, 2016)

tnt1234 said:


> Drive safe man....


Thanks, got AWD with fairly fresh Blizzaks, didn't get much use last year, I should be OK, as long as I can avoid yahoos. 

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## drjeff (Dec 28, 2016)

Looks like elevation is going to play a decent roll in this one, especially during the daylight hours and on the West and Southern sides of the storm - I'm driving up to Mount Snow tomorrow night, leaving NE CT about 3,  based on the forecast from a met who I trust quite a lot,  I'm thinking my ride over to i-91 in Springfield won't be too bad, then some snow, but not a ton up 91 to Brattleboro (hopefully reaching Bratt by 5:30/6 depending on traffic, and then the last 30 or so miles up to Mount Snow is where it's likely to become an interesting ride.

I'm already prepping myself mentally for a 5 to 6 hr ride, instead of the usual 2:40 it takes me - just going to take it slow and steady and play it smart and hope the yahoo's don't screw it up!!!


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## drjeff (Dec 28, 2016)

Well you don't see this very often in the East!!! 

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## Not Sure (Dec 28, 2016)

drjeff said:


> Well you don't see this very often in the East!!!
> 
> Sent from my XT1254 using AlpineZone mobile app



Could be a great Tuckerman spring year ? Wildcat skiers ,is it filling in ?


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## Puck it (Dec 29, 2016)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Could be a great Tuckerman spring year ? Wildcat skiers ,is it filling in ?


it is most likely iced up and then a huge dump brings bad news.


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## Cat in January (Dec 29, 2016)

Not quite getting your answer.  In terms of Spring in Tucks this storm is good.  Just don't go poking around for a bit.  I am sure Wildcat if it can spin will be great and if it doesn't spin the skinners will be there.


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## drjeff (Dec 29, 2016)

Cat in January said:


> Not quite getting your answer.  In terms of Spring in Tucks this storm is good.  Just don't go poking around for a bit.  I am sure Wildcat if it can spin will be great and if it doesn't spin the skinners will be there.



Snow gain in Tucks with this storm - yes.  The issue, and likely could be one for a while to come, is as Puck it was alluding too, Tucks had a thaw/rain/freeze up even earlier this week.  This snow that's going to fall and also blow into the bowl via the winds that will howl is going to create a mighty unstable snow pack for a while.  This is the type of situation where potentially for weeks it could be an issue with avalanche risk, and if you get a big slide, well some of the bowl will ultimately end up with deep snow, but other parts could very well be back down to the iced layer currently there.  So hopefully someone won't act stupidly and venture out into what are likely to be high avalanche danger conditions in not just tucks, but many open slide areas in the White's until the pack eventually stabilizes......  Hence the bad news side of this storm


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## Cat in January (Dec 29, 2016)

These seem like common conditions to me for MW in winter.  I was pointing out he was quoting and replying to a post and this storm is most definitely a gain for Wildcat and Tucks for the Spring.

Yupp some of those slide areas that look so tempting are more dangerous than a duck in a tent.


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## wtcobb (Dec 29, 2016)

It will most certainly be a Tucks spring year - even last year I hit it on Easter Sunday.

Already we have a Considerable danger rating for today (low increasing to considerable as the storm moves through):

http://www.mountwashingtonavalanchecenter.org/

Hoping for good bonding to the existing ice layer. Likely it will be sketch for several days, but at the least the Sherb will be filled in nicely.


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## dlague (Dec 29, 2016)

Well with the icing up and new snow that is probably not that sticky then throw wind into thee mix.  Sticking to the ice more than likely will not happen very well.  The fluffier the snow the more dangerous to ski on with ice underneath.  I cannot imagine anyone going up there this early.  Would coverage even be deep enough yet?

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## dlague (Dec 29, 2016)

Cat in January said:


> These seem like common conditions to me for MW in winter.  I was pointing out he was quoting and replying to a post and this storm is most definitely a gain for Wildcat and Tucks for the Spring.
> 
> Yupp some of those slide areas that look so tempting are more dangerous than a duck in a tent.


Duck in a tent -  I like that!

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## NYDB (Dec 29, 2016)

Cornhead said:


> Wish I could leave early ahead of the snow, but I'll have to travel early Friday morning. Thinking of Bolton Valley, or Magic, have Bohemia comps for both. Maybe stay overnight and hit both.
> 
> Sent from my R1 HD using AlpineZone mobile app



I would save the magic comp til later in the year.  They literally had 0" base on many places on the mountain before this storm.


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## Cornhead (Dec 29, 2016)

NY DirtBag said:


> I would save the magic comp til later in the year.  They literally had 0" base on many places on the mountain before this storm.


Yeah, thinking of doing 2 days at BV. Would love to hit Jay, but $123 for Fri, Sat on Liftopia

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## dlague (Dec 29, 2016)

Cornhead said:


> Yeah, thinking of doing 2 days at BV. Would love to hit Jay, but $123 for Fri, Sat on Liftopia
> 
> Sent from my R1 HD using AlpineZone mobile app


Not many deals for Jay Peak on Saturdays Friday and Sunday 2 fers are easy to come by.  The wind might be problematic there anyway.

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## skifree (Dec 29, 2016)

Cornhead said:


> Yeah, thinking of doing 2 days at BV. Would love to hit Jay, but $123 for Fri, Sat on Liftopia
> 
> Sent from my R1 HD using AlpineZone mobile app



http://highgatefamilyski.webs.com/
hooked my daughter up for this sunday.


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## Cornhead (Dec 29, 2016)

I'm staying home, NOAA was calling for up to 15" of LES between tonight and tomorrow. That's been downgraded. Appears to be the theme of the weekend so far.

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## yeggous (Dec 29, 2016)

It's knee deep in the MWV right now


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## Cornhead (Dec 29, 2016)

yeggous said:


> It's knee deep in the MWV right now
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


Mt Washington Valley?

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## Edd (Dec 31, 2016)

Cornhead said:


> Mt Washington Valley?
> 
> Sent from my R1 HD using AlpineZone mobile app



Yup


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## 4aprice (Jan 3, 2017)

4aprice said:


> I expect it will be a warm (not necessarily blowtorch) for the holidays, little natural, but good snowmaking nights.  Cold will be advertised for early January by the models 7 days out but won't actually show up till late January, so terrain expansion will be slow and people will have to stay away from the ledge.   Then snow and probably some more numbing cold before finally settling in for a rather pleasant final 6 to 8 weeks of the season. In other words a typical northeast season.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Sticking with my forecast.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## 4aprice (Jan 18, 2017)

4aprice said:


> I expect it will be a warm (not necessarily blowtorch) for the holidays, little natural, but good snowmaking nights.  Cold will be advertised for early January by the models 7 days out but won't actually show up till late January, so terrain expansion will be slow and people will have to stay away from the ledge.   Then snow and probably some more numbing cold before finally settling in for a rather pleasant final 6 to 8 weeks of the season. In other words a typical northeast season.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Still sticking with this forecast.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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