# Week of 12/13



## polski (Dec 12, 2009)

Yes, potentially all or at least most of the week. No time to check beyond VT but NWS-Burlington just posted a forecast discussion calling for snow Sun into Mon a.m. (possible NCP mix but looks like higher elevations probably will be spared), more snow from another system Mon night into Tues, and then an upslope event Tues night into Thursday.

My pulse is racing at this point. And I've strung the lights on the xmas tree so I'm one step closer to getting to MRG tomorrow, for starters ...


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## reefer (Dec 12, 2009)

Thanks for all these updates polski and including the links!  I for one am ecstatic to see you starting these storm threads. You are on a run!
Keep the snow coming! I'm on vacation for Christmas this year the 19th - 4th!
Have fun tomorrow! You’d really have to try hard not to have a good time I guess...............
Report and pictures please.


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## JD (Dec 12, 2009)

Great base down.  wouldn't mind a quick thaw/freeze before the next round.  If we have a week like last week we'll be skiing trees at speed by next w/e....


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## polski (Dec 12, 2009)

Thanks reefer. I've been a weather weenie for a while and try to apply that to skiing. I'm far from an expert in meteorology but I'm pretty aware of the ski-oriented resources available online. I'm also into communications/social media/etc so am experimenting a bit (like with my twitter account) in sharing what I find. Except when I'm out there getting some myself, like in less than 12 hours from now ...



JD said:


> Great base down.  wouldn't mind a quick thaw/freeze before the next round.  If we have a week like last week we'll be skiing trees at speed by next w/e....



Latest NWS forecasts seem to suggest slightly warmer temps (though not out of the 30s) and greater chance for mixed precip later tomorrow and possibly Monday night (especially farther south, naturally), and also not so much moisture for upslope later in the week. But these things change from model run to model run. Even as weather is happening strange things can happen, like the Mad River Valley getting blasted with around a foot of lake effect Friday while not far to the north (Stowe) and south (Killington et al) there was far less snow.


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## polski (Dec 12, 2009)

p.s. this is a LOT more fun when the forecasts are for snow ...


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## billski (Dec 12, 2009)

I'm following this to.  Well, the temps are now getting low enough that what happens in the valley ain't necessarily gonna be what happens on the hill (or is that Vegas??  )  
My bet is for white stuff on the hill.  I'd only start getting worried if the valley temps (what the nws typically prognosticates) get into the mid 40s or higher.

I find this http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/mountain/ far more interesting.


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## polski (Dec 12, 2009)

billski said:


> I'm following this to.  Well, the temps are now getting low enough that what happens in the valley ain't necessarily gonna be what happens on the hill (or is that Vegas??  )
> My bet is for white stuff on the hill.  I'd only start getting worried if the valley temps (what the nws typically prognosticates) get into the mid 40s or higher.
> 
> I find this http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/mountain/ far more interesting.



yeah, I saw that and am hoping the winds tomorrow aren't quite that bad ... anyway, the forecast discussions get pretty technical but give a lot more context (once you get used to the shorthand) than the regular forecasts, including those for the summits. And the discussions do tend to pay attention to what will happen at elevation vs the valleys, and note when upslope or lake effect snow may be a factor.

Anyway, big picture seems to be quite good for the next week at least.


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## WinnChill (Dec 13, 2009)

The good thing about tonight's system is that it's rather quick moving--sure, we'd love to get good "residence time" or longer precipitation periods but that would allow those southwesterly winds to bring more warm air up into us, thus more mixing/rain.  Since it is quick, the warm air won't have as much time to seep in...probably up to around Killington with some warmer air between 2000-3000 feet...summits stay mostly snow  Plus, it'll be tougher to scour out cold valley temps with more snowpack.  Summit winds will get cranking later today as well. 

This weather thing is pretty fun, huh Polski!  Keep it up!  

Cheers!


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## billski (Dec 13, 2009)

*Looks to be snowing at Stratton!*

http://skigod.us/webcam/


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## jaywbigred (Dec 13, 2009)

Same at Mount Snow:

http://www.mountsnow.com/livecamshot.php


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## billski (Dec 13, 2009)

*2-3*

Looks like 2-3 all the way to Maine tonight.


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## billski (Dec 13, 2009)

getting hot on top of starks


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## JD (Dec 13, 2009)

Been snowing in northfield for a coupla hours.  I'm def getting accumulation so I imagine up high is getting inches pretty quick right now.


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## JD (Dec 13, 2009)

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USNY0124&animate=true
I don't think it's gonna rain here.  They've been off with temps to the warm side every event for the last 3 weeks.  Tomorrow morning could be quite tasty for the northern half of the area....


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## billski (Dec 13, 2009)

JD said:


> http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USNY0124&animate=true
> I don't think it's gonna rain here.  They've been off with temps to the warm side every event for the last 3 weeks.  Tomorrow morning could be quite tasty for the northern half of the area....


cha-ching!  Grrr.  gotta work this week.  Next week....


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## riverc0il (Dec 13, 2009)

Not quite puking but almost here in the Pemi-Baker region. Just took a trip to the grocery store (snow storms are the best time to shop!) and the roads were pretty harsh. Snowing at least 1 inch per hour as we have had almost two inches fall since the sun went down.


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## JD (Dec 13, 2009)

A good moderate snow here still.  probably 3 down...


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## Johnskiismore (Dec 13, 2009)

About four inches on the ground in Berlin, NH, up here for a Christmas concert......... and guess whos skis are at home????


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## JD (Dec 13, 2009)

Getting good...




Snow pack is getting good....


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## billski (Dec 13, 2009)

JD said:


> Getting good...
> 
> Snow pack is getting good....



I'll be right up


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## polski (Dec 13, 2009)

Somewhat heavier snow than I'd expected for the northern half of the ride home from MRG this afternoon, turning what took 3 hours going up into 5 coming back ... including some fairly white-knuckle stuff on 89 from roughly exit 3 in VT to Sunapee, whereupon we followed the plows for half an hour at 25 mph. Changed to sleet 23 miles N of Concord around 6 p.m. and then rain within another 15 miles. Current radar indicates it never did mix from MRV north and precip now coming to an end in VT. 

Snow was very fine when it started at MRG; steadily larger dendrites as we drove south, until finally it changed over.

Quick check of Burlington forecast discussion indicates not much moisture for midweek upslope, but again, those things can be tough to peg until it actually happens.


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## WinnChill (Dec 14, 2009)

Thanks for the report Polski!  Glad you made it back safe.

I'm waiting on reports this morning to see how I made out...was going for about 3-6" for northern resorts north of the mixing line...we got about a sloppy inch in S. NH before turning to rain.  

Wish Wednesday's storm bombed out closer to us but uplsope showers it will be for the the rest of the week.  

Cheers!


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## Glenn (Dec 14, 2009)

Interesting weather yesterday in South Eastern VT. It started snowing around noon...lightly at first, then came down pretty good. The temp held steady at about 28F. Around 4, things started warming up a bit. By 6PM, it was raining, but still around 32ish. I before the change over, I'd say we picked up a good 3" of snow. 

The drive back to CT was interesting. Rt 30 was a bit slushy. 91 wasn't bad at all, but people were traveling slowly...and bunching up. The temp didn't get above 32 until around Northampton.


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## polski (Dec 14, 2009)

Pulse not racing over snow forecast for this week anymore. Latest indications are great temps for snowmaking from Wednesday on but not much moisture for upslope. Josh Fox and "LionelHutz" have posted outlooks for the week.


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## arik (Dec 14, 2009)

Same experience for me in Southeastern VT yesterday. Snowed really hard from 1-3 pm, at least 3 inches on the car when I left at 3:30 pm, rained hard the drive back to NYC I figuered it must have snowed a lot in VT. But then when I called the snow report at Mount Snow and Stratton this morning they didn't report much accumulation. Do ski resorts ever underreport snowfall?


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## Zand (Dec 15, 2009)

It's been PUKING here for the past 3 hours or so. Already a few inches down. Unexpected too.


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## drjeff (Dec 15, 2009)

The Lake Effect machine is about to get turned on in a BIG way during the next 24 or so hours.  Once it get's turned on, if the High pressure system that's behind the soon to arrive cold front does what many models think (which is basically park itself over the appalachians for a week or so) the Lake Effect Machine will stay on for many days 

This front pushing through in the next 24 hours has some good signs to it interms of getting a good, long exposure to the cold polar air for the Northeast, and also the the Eastern Edge of the cold air looks like it will get far enough East to have plenty of good, cold air (not this marginal stuff we've had recently) in place for anytype of system that may come our way in the next 5 to 10 days be it an Alberta Clipper or a Nor'easter type storm.


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## billski (Dec 15, 2009)

A couple inches every day adds up!  I love seeing NNE all colored up!


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## polski (Dec 16, 2009)

I'd appreciate first- or second-hand reports if anyone has them of upslope snow accum today in VT. In the 12/20 thread earlier I said radar indicated the snow had pretty much stopped but now that I look at the NWS composite loop it looks like it still may be going around 89 in the Bolton Valley area (which reportedly had 3" by late this afternoon) and S/central VT. Especially interested in any reports from Magic. thanks in advance


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## billski (Dec 16, 2009)

looks like the warming hit the Western whites pretty hard:

Wildcat:
Primary Surface:                               Loose Frozen Granular


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## riverc0il (Dec 16, 2009)

Flurries in Ashland right now. If that is upslope related, it is probably hitting the mountains pretty good if we are seeing flakes here in the Pemi-Baker low lands.


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## Puck it (Dec 16, 2009)

polski said:


> I'd appreciate first- or second-hand reports if anyone has them of upslope snow accum today in VT. In the 12/20 thread earlier I said radar indicated the snow had pretty much stopped but now that I look at the NWS composite loop it looks like it still may be going around 89 in the Bolton Valley area (which reportedly had 3" by late this afternoon) and S/central VT. Especially interested in any reports from Magic. thanks in advance


 
Killington had about 2-3 at the summit last night.  It started snowing at around 12 but not hard.  The wind was picking up considerably when I was leaving at 2:45.  No real accumalation though.


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## polski (Dec 16, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> Flurries in Ashland right now. If that is upslope related, it is probably hitting the mountains pretty good if we are seeing flakes here in the Pemi-Baker low lands.


Flurries here in NE MA - pretty sure it's lake effect.

Trying to see if I can pull off a jaunt to Bolton Valley after seeing reliable report this eve of 4-8" and still snowing. Possible Champlain enhancement judging from the very nice looking radar at the moment. $15 lift tickets thru Fri. Gotta run, thanks all ...


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## billski (Dec 17, 2009)

polski said:


> Flurries here in NE MA - pretty sure it's lake effect.
> 
> Trying to see if I can pull off a jaunt to Bolton Valley after seeing reliable report this eve of 4-8" and still snowing. Possible Champlain enhancement judging from the very nice looking radar at the moment. $15 lift tickets thru Fri. Gotta run, thanks all ...


 
This morning's report:
Kmart 2
BV 1
Bush 2
JP 1
smug 2
strat 2-4

where did your reliable report come from?

I've noticed a lot of resorts are reporting cumulative over a number of days.


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## polski (Dec 17, 2009)

Good seeing you tonight Bill -- as I said then, BV definitely had 4". Last evening their snow report said 3 and by the time I checked mid-morning it said 4. The 4-8 came from someone on SKIVT-L who skinned up yesterday evening. There were pockets deeper than 4 especially higher up and as I said in my TR in Preacher woods I got several measurements of ~16 from blow-in.

I'd add that last night I was watching radar and the BV area sure seemed to be getting heavier snow than say Stowe or Bush. Well short of epic but no sign of crust from rain/freeze earlier in the week.


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