# Snow Squalls with Arctic Front Tonight



## powderfreak (Jan 19, 2008)

*Wrote this for the local Burlington area and Green Mountain ski areas which are my bread and butter.  This isn't going to be a huge event and I expect most of NY and New Enland north of I-90 picks up a dusting to a few inches in localized spots with this Arctic Front.  Just wanted to throw out a little meso-analysis and forecast for those interested in the 'Bush/MRG, Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs, Jay area.
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Just getting back into the states and really like what I'm seeing for some
fluffy snowfall accumulation tonight at the ski areas.  Steep lapse rates
with brutally cold air moving in at H85 on top of still somewhat mild
surface temps should produce low topped squalls.  Looks like a decent WINDEX
(wintertime instability) event with snowfall rates in squalls at up to
2"/hr.  Snow growth is good and ratios should be high.  Based on moisture
pooling up the Saint Lawrence River Valley from strong SWly winds (even 12"+
Lake Effect amounts up that way which is rare) and good convergence of low
level winds along the front, I expect 3-6" of snow at resorts along the
Green Mountain spine by tomorrow morning.  Isolated higher amounts are
possible.  Orographics will play a big role with winds converging along the
front (SW and NW) to produce a mean westerly flow through the column.  This
will hit the Green Mtn spine perpendicularly and orographics will be optimal
for a time.

I'd say BTV and low elevation environs will see anywhere from a solid
coating to 2" as the front moves through.  West slope foothills see the best
chance at higher amounts as far as populated regions go.  Best chance of
snow looks to be a couple hours either side of midnight tonight.  I've
always liked these local events where terrain can play a big role and it can
get exciting everywhere for a time when the heavy snow moves in. 

-Scott

ps: Already noticing a fairly significant terrain/upslope signal on recent
composite radar data.  Looks like it should be snowing moderately along the
spine from Jay Peak to Eden as the Lake Band off Ontario slowly drops south
ahead of the front due to a subtle deep layer wind shift from SW to WSW.


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## Warp Daddy (Jan 19, 2008)

I just got thru plowing about 5 inches of fluffy  pow in my driveway here in St Lawrence river valley so its on the way boyz


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## campgottagopee (Jan 19, 2008)

Down here in CNY we got nuttin


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## powderfreak (Jan 19, 2008)

Warp Daddy said:


> I just got thru plowing about 5 inches of fluffy  pow in my driveway here in St Lawrence river valley so its on the way boyz



Front is still off to your north and west.  You did pretty well with the lake effect this morning that caused BTV to hoist Advisories and Warnings.  I'd expect some additional accumulation later this evening of up to 2".


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## Warp Daddy (Jan 19, 2008)

Bring It !!!!


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## loafer89 (Jan 19, 2008)

A clipper storm is forecast to bring 3-5" of snow to Sugarloaf on tuesday, we should have alot of this powder to ourselves once the MLK crowd leaves.


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## skimore (Jan 19, 2008)

campgottagopee said:


> Down here in CNY we got nuttin



skied 8" to 10" on the Tug today and calling for feet by monday am


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## billski (Jan 20, 2008)

that precip would be perfect for the blues at Stowe.  they were really scraped off today.  unenjoyable for me.  the blacks were in much better shape which speaks a lot about what skier volume will do.


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## riverc0il (Jan 20, 2008)

billski said:


> that precip would be perfect for the blues at Stowe.  they were really scraped off today.  unenjoyable for me.  the blacks were in much better shape which speaks a lot about what skier volume will do.


I do not think volume caused the scraping this weekend. I skied Jay both days. Jay got 6" Friday and then another 6" Saturday night. Both days things got scraped down quick. The base is frozen and will continue to stay that way until we get some base building snow. The stuff that fell recently was all fluff. Great for untracked powder skiing but not good for recovering from the rain/freeze events earlier this month. High skier volume strips a trail regardless though, but trails this weekend were already pretty crunchy with exception of hitting the groomers first tracks, those were nice runs this weekend, even I must admit. Blower powder makes any run really nice for the first few skiers though.


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## billski (Jan 21, 2008)

riverc0il said:


> I do not think volume caused the scraping this weekend. I skied Jay both days. Jay got 6" Friday and then another 6" Saturday night. Both days things got scraped down quick. The base is frozen and will continue to stay that way until we get some base building snow. The stuff that fell recently was all fluff. Great for untracked powder skiing but not good for recovering from the rain/freeze events earlier this month. High skier volume strips a trail regardless though, but trails this weekend were already pretty crunchy with exception of hitting the groomers first tracks, those were nice runs this weekend, even I must admit. Blower powder makes any run really nice for the first few skiers though.


We may have to disagree on this one Steve, or perhaps we are splitting hairs.  The black trails and certain difficult-to-get to trails at Stowe were delightfully full of powder and PP.  I'll post a full TR with pics from a re-charged camera shortly...


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## riverc0il (Jan 21, 2008)

I think I read your post too quickly and misunderstood your comments. Surprising to hear the black trails were so lightly traveled, pretty rare that groomed blues get more scraped down than blacks.


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## campgottagopee (Jan 21, 2008)

skimore said:


> skied 8" to 10" on the Tug today and calling for feet by monday am



News this A.M. said snowing at a rate of 3-4 inches/hr up there and that you should total about 4 friggin feet!!!!!!! You close to that yet???? Why can't you just share a litle bit if that w/ us down here. Amazing how just 40 miles makes.......


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## Warp Daddy (Jan 21, 2008)

NEWZ FLASH ::::::THERE IS NO PLACE CALLED TUG HILL  don't look for it --it doesn't exist 

BUT if u do go there BRING YOUR FRIGGIN SNORKEL  tHIS DUMP could be A RE-RUN FROM LAST SEASON


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## campgottagopee (Jan 21, 2008)

Your secret is safe with me-----I do biz with a guy in Fulton-----His remark to me this morning was that it was snowing so hard he literally couldn't see his hand in front of his face. Too bad we just didn't have a mountain there..............


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## Warp Daddy (Jan 21, 2008)

True BUT like Mick says " Ya can't ALWAYS get what YA Want --Ya Get What YA NEED"
a shitpot fulla POW


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## campgottagopee (Jan 21, 2008)

Can someone put up some pix from tug???


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## campgottagopee (Jan 21, 2008)

Total storm total for Fultom NY = 39" WOW


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## billski (Jan 21, 2008)

that whole Watertown area has a serious vertical problem.  If they could solve the elevation issue, they'd be millionaires.   Tahoe of the east....


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## campgottagopee (Jan 21, 2008)

billski said:


> that whole Watertown area has a serious vertical problem.  If they could solve the elevation issue, they'd be millionaires.   Tahoe of the east....



Oh how true


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## skimore (Jan 21, 2008)

campgottagopee said:


> Can someone put up some pix from tug???


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## campgottagopee (Jan 23, 2008)

Looks great---looks like you guys still getting pounded up there too.


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## campgottagopee (Jan 25, 2008)

Here's a pix of a friend of mine who runs a Nissan dealership in Fulton NY. And no, that's not a truck he's standing by.


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