# The Official 12/10 - 12/12 Storm Discussion Thread



## from_the_NEK (Dec 5, 2008)

GFS looks like it has a storm moving up the coast for 12/12. For once this year it doesn't look like a GLC.


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 5, 2008)

I had to beat Greg to the punch :-D

1st ski day of the year is tomorrow!


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## WJenness (Dec 5, 2008)

<crosses fingers and prays to Ullr>

-w


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 5, 2008)

from_the_NEK said:


> GFS looks like it has a storm moving up the coast for 12/12. For once this year it doesn't look like a GLC.



That's a week away...I want to see some snow though..


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 6, 2008)

Snow is accumulating at a rate of about 1/4 of an inch per hour in my hood..Almost an inch of snow is on the ground.  This snow is halfway between Sierra Cement and Light and dry powder..I'll call it slightly fluffy medium density snow..it will mix into the manmade base well..winds are increasing out of the northwest..of course the most snow will fall at the higher elevations due to orographic lift and cooler temperatures..The roads are getting greasy..be careful out there..I'm allowing double as much time to get to Blue tomorrow because there are going to be alot of Yahoos on the road tomorrow..


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## roark (Dec 7, 2008)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> Snow is accumulating at a rate of about 1/4 of an inch per hour in my hood..Almost an inch of snow is on the ground.  This snow is halfway between Sierra Cement and Light and dry powder..I'll call it slightly fluffy medium density snow..it will mix into the manmade base well..winds are increasing out of the northwest..of course the most snow will fall at the higher elevations due to orographic lift and cooler temperatures..The roads are getting greasy..be careful out there..I'm allowing double as much time to get to Blue tomorrow because there are going to be alot of Yahoos on the road tomorrow..


Wrong thread?

Go shred that blue gnar!


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 7, 2008)

roark said:


> Wrong thread?
> 
> Go shred that blue gnar!



My Bad..how many storm speculation threads are they..I think these threads are a Jinx..


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## loafer89 (Dec 7, 2008)

A pattern change is coming to New England roughly around December 15th. The west is forecast to turn cold and stormy with a ridge and much warmer weather here.

It looks like we might have some GLC storms and rain until the New Year.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 7, 2008)

It looks like more snow and cold snowmaking weather this week before and after the quick one day thaw.  I'm glad the west is forecast to get some snow..areas out there are hurting..I want all the resorts east and west to have a good Holiday since that week accounts for such a large percentage of ticket sales.


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## KingM (Dec 8, 2008)

Anyone have any additional thoughts on this? Accuweather (yeah, I know) has some thoughts that this will turn out to be a classic northeast snowstorm.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 8, 2008)

I'm guessing alot of spots could see at least a half of foot of snow..hopefully those spots are in ski country..


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## Moe Ghoul (Dec 8, 2008)

We'll be headin north next week, so it'll definitely snow. The fix is in.


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## Greg (Dec 9, 2008)

KingM said:


> Anyone have any additional thoughts on this? Accuweather (yeah, I know) has some thoughts that this will turn out to be a classic northeast snowstorm.



That's where we're leaning apparently. Maybe a more southern event.


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## KingM (Dec 9, 2008)

Greg said:


> That's where we're leaning apparently. Maybe a more southern event.



At this point, I'm happy to take a southern event, rather than the uhm, northern events we've been getting. We often do very well in those anyway, especially at the higher elevations, where the snow is light, but ongoing for some time after the storm has passed.


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## drjeff (Dec 9, 2008)

Might need one of these







to help pull the heavy bands closer to shore. 

About the only thing certain about Northeast Weather system tracks these days are their uncertainty


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## Greg (Dec 9, 2008)

I look forward to skiing powder bumps at [thread="43688"]Sundown on Friday[/thread]. Believe it.


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## The Sneak (Dec 9, 2008)

Hoping we know what's gonna happen by wednesday afternoon so I can make sure I get friday off.

Thinking Sunapee or okemo since my Wa pass would get me a discount at either and both are southern/inland.

Please ullr bring us some POW


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## Greg (Dec 9, 2008)

The storm track has been trending west. Which is not good for SNE, but better for NNE.


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## billski (Dec 9, 2008)

WJenness said:


> <crosses fingers and prays to Ullr>
> 
> -w



It's no wonder there hasn't been a good dump!  You need to sacrifice a virgin in a pyre to Ullr.  None of this praying stuff    That's the problem here!


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## loafer89 (Dec 9, 2008)

It's looking like we could get alot of freezing rain in Northern Connecticut which would really suck. I would rather it be all rain.


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## Euler (Dec 9, 2008)

*12/11 Storm Speculation Thread*

So, there's a thread for the 9th and a thread for the 12th, but it looks like the best possibilitry for some action is on Thursday the 11th.

From the NOAA/NWS 4 PM update out of the Albany station:



> THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
> WATCH FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT...WESTERN
> MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
> FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
> ...


*

Lots of uncertainty still, but this could be Mt. Snow's first big dump...fingers crossed!
*


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## billski (Dec 9, 2008)

loafer89 said:


> It's looking like we could get alot of freezing rain in Northern Connecticut which would really suck. I would rather it be all rain.


Someone's gotta be on the line.  You just got used to all those lower new england events last year.  Head north!


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## loafer89 (Dec 9, 2008)

billski said:


> Someone's gotta be on the line. You just got used to all those lower new england events last year. Head north!


 

It's funny because since I moved up here from Long Island in 2006 it hardly snow's there anymore. It's like it's following me

I will be hading north this weekend, probably to Waterville Valley on saturday and Smugglers Notch on sunday.


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## Greg (Dec 9, 2008)

billski said:


> You just got used to all those lower new england events last year.  Head north!



Thanks Captain Obvious. :roll:

But in reality we didn't have any "lower" NE events last year. I can recall two 1 foot snowfalls. Better than the year before which was predominantly slizzards. We haven't had a good 18"+ dump in years. We're do.

This storm track has been all over the place. I think we'll have a better handle on who will be the big winner in terms of snowfall tomorrow. Somebody is going to get it. Better be flexible for Friday.


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## thebigo (Dec 9, 2008)

Early stoke from  Matt Noyes 



> If I'm right on this setup, we have an almost all rain scenario for most of coastal Southern New England (surprise, surprise), a substantial freezing rain scenario for interior Southern and South-Central New England, a substantial sleet event for much of Central New England including Concord, NH, and Portland, ME, and a one to two foot snow event for some of Northern New England, from Central/North Central VT to the Mount Washington Valley to the Maine Mountains.
> 
> Remember that those of you who read this blog get my raw thoughts - I wouldn't necessarily go on the air with a map of hard and fast predictions for exact locations of ptype and amounts, because there is still lingering uncertainty with the storm track, and the efficiency of precipitation production, though I expect the latter to be high with differential temperature advection underway - warm advection aloft and cold advection below - and the cold side of the mid-level front should form the necessary deformation band on the cold side of its location to verify the heavy snow band in the North.


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## deadheadskier (Dec 9, 2008)

I hope that's true, I'm leaning towards Sugarloaf for Sunday, just a question of whether I want to motivate 3.5 hours for a day trip.  I got a ticket to burn, so it's pretty likely


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## loafer89 (Dec 9, 2008)

Greg said:


> Thanks Captain Obvious. :roll:
> 
> But in reality we didn't have any "lower" NE events last year. I can recall two 1 foot snowfalls. Better than the year before which was predominantly slizzards. We haven't had a good 18"+ dump in years. We're do.
> 
> This storm track has been all over the place. I think we'll have a better handle on who will be the big winner in terms of snowfall tomorrow. Somebody is going to get it. Better be flexible for Friday.


 

The latest models bring the storm center slightly more eastward which is good for a 4-8" + snowfall for Northern New England, but could give us a potentially crippling icestorm.


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## Greg (Dec 9, 2008)

deadheadskier said:


> I hope that's true, I'm leaning towards Sugarloaf for Sunday, just a question of whether I want to motivate 3.5 hours for a day trip.  I got a ticket to burn, so it's pretty likely



3 1/2 hours to Sugarloaf?


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## Greg (Dec 10, 2008)

According to the NWS, this looks like a prolonged event, at least for parts of NNE. I merged a few threads together and upgraded this one to "official". :razz:


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## billski (Dec 10, 2008)

*powderfreak*

On SkiVTL Powderfreak Scott provided some guidance:

"This should certainly be monitored for a high impact winter storm somewhere in the northeast."


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## Euler (Dec 10, 2008)

Here's a good looking snow map from Accuweather:
(Everyone's always hating on Accuweather...any data to back this distrust up, or does everyone just blindly slam Accuweather like they slam certain resorts?)


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## billski (Dec 10, 2008)

sorry, I believe all the data are anecdotal.  I'm not going to waste my time quantifying it; I don't work for them nor do I have anything to gain from seeing it corrected.  Easier to go to more reliable sources. My generalization is that they super-sensationalize their forecasts.


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## WJenness (Dec 10, 2008)

Euler said:


> Here's a good looking snow map from Accuweather:
> (Everyone's always hating on Accuweather...any data to back this distrust up, or does everyone just blindly slam Accuweather like they slam certain resorts?)



PLEASE be right.

-w


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## deadheadskier (Dec 10, 2008)

Greg said:


> 3 1/2 hours to Sugarloaf?



3.5 if I'm hauling ass with no traffic.  Yes, I do start to cry when my travel time exceeds 3 hours on a day trip.


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## Justin10 (Dec 10, 2008)

Look at that rain/snow line just ripping across west to east.  Still a lot of green there as of now, but that line isn't messing around...


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## JD (Dec 10, 2008)

Idael scenario for ski area locals.  A dump, and no one can drive here from down south.  Yes, this makes me sound like a dick, but when locals have a snow covered Mtn to themselves in a w/e it's a pretty special thing....

Once about 5 years ago we got a big overnighter and it was still dumping in the A.M.  I was coming up to harlow hill by the matterhorn and the car 2 up was going SLOW.  I knew they wern't gonna make it up the hill so I let them get way ahead.  I got a goot jump at the hill and as I closed on them I saw the first car stop and go sideways....I put the pass on as the car behind them did the same thing.  The cars behind me stacked up like a log jam.  It turned into kind of a car jumble and closed to road for over an hour.  First few laps on the quad were really fun with only about 20 people there...
Moral of this story.  If you're coming up, come early.  And hit harlow hill with a good head of Steam.


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## tcharron (Dec 10, 2008)

God, if ONLY this was snow..

Ok, WHO WAS BAD THIS YEAR, and is getting their coal PREDELIVERED in NCP form!?!?


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 10, 2008)

I wonder how the snowpack is holding up in Northern Vermont...rain, wind, warmth and fog..yikes..things are looking good in Warp Daddys neighborhood.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 10, 2008)

Not looking good at Stowe..

http://www.stowe.com/mountain/webcam.php


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## Greg (Dec 10, 2008)

Justin10 said:


> Look at that rain/snow line just ripping across west to east.  Still a lot of green there as of now, but that line isn't messing around...



Lots of rain, but a lot of back end snow too. Come on!


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## Greg (Dec 10, 2008)

The temps at MRG plummeted 20 degrees in the last 30 minutes according to Eric Friedman. Check it:


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## KingM (Dec 10, 2008)

It has been bizarre. Yesterday, my wet hair froze into a helmet when I left the house. By evening, no coat necessary.

The rain has done some damage to our snow here in the yard. 

The good news is that we should be coated in white again by this afternoon. If we can get that big storm tomorrow, we should be well ahead for the week.


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## loafer89 (Dec 10, 2008)

Snowing and 32F on Sterling Summit @Smugglers Notch


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## Greg (Dec 10, 2008)

JD said:


> Idael scenario for ski area locals.  A dump, and no one can drive here from down south.



You just watch.


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## danny p (Dec 10, 2008)

Greg said:


> The temps at MRG plummeted 20 degrees in the last 30 minutes according to Eric Friedman.



good news!!


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 10, 2008)

Rain, rain go away. Come back as snow another day. 

(this afternoon works too  )


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## Greg (Dec 10, 2008)

Justin10 said:


> Look at that rain/snow line just ripping across west to east.  Still a lot of green there as of now, but that line isn't messing around...



If you looks closely you can see some pink mixing in at elevation on some frames here. Sweetness.


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## KingM (Dec 10, 2008)

Still rain here at the moment, although I stepped outside and it's much colder than just an hour or two ago. I looked at MRG's web site and wow, they took a massive hit overnight. The rain was bad enough, but we also had fierce winds all night long.

We had pretty good snow cover in the yard yesterday and now it's mostly grass, except for the woods and the piles left by the plows.


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## JD (Dec 10, 2008)

Still snow in my yard, but we got alot of rain.  Still 25 inches at the stake on Mansi...and it's now snowing....calling for 4-8 for the bush today and tonight....tomorrow should be descent again!


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## Justin10 (Dec 10, 2008)

What ridiculous weather this week.  Had lows earlier this week right around 0 here in Plymouth.  Was just above 15 degrees yesterday at noon, and currently is 57.  Theres a crazy strong front approaching from the west, and we're under a winter storm watch (while its 57 degrees haha) for Thursday night and Friday where the NH mountains could see 12"+.  Definitely one of the crazier weeks of weather up here that I've seen in a while.


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## drjeff (Dec 10, 2008)

Justin10 said:


> What ridiculous weather this week.  Had lows earlier this week right around 0 here in Plymouth.  Was just above 15 degrees yesterday at noon, and currently is 57.  Theres a crazy strong front approaching from the west, and we're under a winter storm watch (while its 57 degrees haha) for Thursday night and Friday where the NH mountains could see 12"+.  Definitely one of the crazier weeks of weather up here that I've seen in a while.



This week hands down confirms the classic New England weather addage "if you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes!"


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## billski (Dec 10, 2008)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> I wonder how the snowpack is holding up in Northern Vermont...rain, wind, warmth and fog..yikes..things are looking good in Warp Daddys neighborhood.



MRG spoke rather plainly this morning, "[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][FONT=Comic Sans MS,Verdana,Helvetica,sans-serif]Needless to say we lost a bunch of our snow pack. If we can pick up some snow today and some more on Friday we will certainly push to open up on Saturday. "[/FONT][/FONT] 

Josh Fox is not too keen on next week either.
http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

Thank you.   May I have another, SIR?

I am only half-glad I'll be watching skiing and boarding flicks tonight....


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 10, 2008)

billski said:


> MRG spoke rather plainly this morning, "[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][FONT=Comic Sans MS,Verdana,Helvetica,sans-serif]Needless to say we lost a bunch of our snow pack. If we can pick up some snow today and some more on Friday we will certainly push to open up on Saturday. "[/FONT][/FONT]
> 
> Josh Fox is not too keen on next week either.
> http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/
> ...



Wow it looks like MRG might have a tough time opening before Christmas..


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## Greg (Dec 10, 2008)

Justin10 said:


> Look at that rain/snow line just ripping across west to east.  Still a lot of green there as of now, but that line isn't messing around...



Looks like the snow just dipped down into the MRV. Any first hand observations?


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 10, 2008)

Looking good at Stowe..

http://www.stowe.com/mountain/webcam.php


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## billski (Dec 10, 2008)

Greg said:


> Looks like the snow just dipped down into the MRV. Any first hand observations?


PM KingM   he's in it...


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## KingM (Dec 10, 2008)

Still very cold rain on the valley floor as of 12:50. Seems like it's trying to transition to sleet, but not yet.


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## Moe Ghoul (Dec 10, 2008)

It's only 1PM, sounds like most of the damage is done, so better reports should be rolling in by sundown. Hope it turns from  to


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## KingM (Dec 10, 2008)

Moe Ghoul said:


> It's only 1PM, sounds like most of the damage is done, so better reports should be rolling in by sundown. Hope it turns from  to



My hope is that we lay down a few inches tonight to overcome most of the damage, then pack on top a nice dump of two feet tomorrow and we'll be ahead for the week.

It's frozenish here now. Sleety. The bare spots are not yet white.


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## 2knees (Dec 10, 2008)

the 1 o'clock update on noaa doesnt really clear much up....  still up in the air with the storm track and percip amount/type.  just go right over the eastern edge of l.i. and slam the greens please.

looks like all rain for us down here though.  bummer.


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## The Sneak (Dec 10, 2008)

Looking for word on Stowe...how do you think things will be looking there for saturday?


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## billski (Dec 10, 2008)

The Sneak said:


> Looking for word on Stowe...how do you think things will be looking there for saturday?


My gut tells me that it all depends on the natural (which appears to be the crapshoot.) The options will be limited to whatever they can crunch up and blow on before then.  They can only do so much in two days.

Temp is now below freezing at MRG and it's snowing, so that's goodness.NWS is forecasting 3-7" at Stowe (Morrisville) this afternoon and it is snowing now.  NWS is also sticking their neck out and projecting 8" of snow from Thursday night through Friday night.

You might luck out if they get that much.

check this out at MRG:


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 10, 2008)

The Sneak said:


> Looking for word on Stowe...how do you think things will be looking there for saturday?



With snow falling now into the overnight hours along with a possible storm on Friday..I think Stowe will be good this weekend.


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## KingM (Dec 10, 2008)

Definitely all snow on the valley floor now. Ground is already covered again. This weather is giving me whiplash.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 10, 2008)

KingM said:


> Definitely all snow on the valley floor now. Ground is already covered again. This weather is giving me whiplash.



You should get up there and ski the last hour and a half..


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## billski (Dec 10, 2008)

Killington and Okemo are apt to pick up a cool 12-15 in the next 24 hrs.


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## JD (Dec 10, 2008)

snowing at my house.


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## Justin10 (Dec 10, 2008)

Down to just above 40 degrees here.  For perspective, thats an 18 degree drop since 10:30 this morning when we were at 58.  

Intellicast radar shows rain changing to snow in the higher peaks of the Whites....hopefully we change back to snow sooner than later here.


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## SkiingInABlueDream (Dec 10, 2008)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> With snow falling now into the overnight hours along with a possible storm on Friday..I think Stowe will be good this weekend.



I like the sound of that - Im heading there for 3 days starting Friday 8)


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## JD (Dec 10, 2008)

25 solid inches at the stake...another 10-12 and that place will come into it's own.  Might have to go ski Anglefood friday afternoon before the gondi opens....


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## AMAC2233 (Dec 10, 2008)

Looking like the Whites and Maine (SR/SL) won't get much out of this? Correct me if I'm wrong...but NCP is forecasted for both places...


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## Moe Ghoul (Dec 10, 2008)

All this rain will be a distant memory as the snow accumulates into the weekend. Just makes it that much sweeter. {{{{{{{{{{+++++}}}}}}}}}}}}}}


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## drjeff (Dec 10, 2008)

Moe Ghoul said:


> All this rain will be a distant memory as the snow accumulates into the weekend. Just makes it that much sweeter. {{{{{{{{{{+++++}}}}}}}}}}}}}}



http://www.flowgo.com/funny/9243_tiki-snow-dance.html

And while snowmobiling and not skiing/boarding realted, hey this one is worth it right now too!


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## JD (Dec 10, 2008)

calling for 7-11 at stowe and sugarbush tomorrow night....


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## Moe Ghoul (Dec 10, 2008)

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...NORTHERN TACONICS AND
ALL OF SOUTHERN VERMONT FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 4 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF SLEET POSSIBLY TOTALING ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OR
GREATER IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF
ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FROM ALBANY EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
TACONICS AND ALL OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...THEN BECOMING HEAVIER
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ICING
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM ALBANY EASTWARD. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT...AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
THE LOW WILL TRACK FROM ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST TO THE EASTERN
TIP OF LONG ISLAND...THEN TO MAINE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM
WILL DRAW PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...RESULTING
IN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

Wish I was leaving tonite.


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## Justin10 (Dec 10, 2008)

The Whites are looking at 9-13" thursday night alone, probably a couple over the day friday also.  POW!!!!!!!!!!!  Tomorrow will probably be mentally the longest day in recent memory waiting for this this to start...


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## KingM (Dec 10, 2008)

Any chance they'll open MRG on Friday, so I don't have to wait until Sunday to go skiing?


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## MarkC (Dec 10, 2008)

It looks like 8-10" for the Cats.  Powderdaize!!


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## SnowRider (Dec 10, 2008)

Southern NH predictions?


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## JD (Dec 10, 2008)

I'm really liking where this front has set up for the passage of this next low.  Central VT seems to be in the sweetspot...as close to the changeover line as possible w/o getting one...


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## Greg (Dec 10, 2008)

JD said:


> I'm really liking where this front has set up for the passage of this next low.  Central VT seems to be in the sweetspot...as close to the changeover line as possible w/o getting one...



Yep.


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## hardline (Dec 10, 2008)

JD said:


> Idael scenario for ski area locals.  A dump, and no one can drive here from down south.  Yes, this makes me sound like a dick, but when locals have a snow covered Mtn to themselves in a w/e it's a pretty special thing....
> 
> Once about 5 years ago we got a big overnighter and it was still dumping in the A.M.  I was coming up to harlow hill by the matterhorn and the car 2 up was going SLOW.  I knew they wern't gonna make it up the hill so I let them get way ahead.  I got a goot jump at the hill and as I closed on them I saw the first car stop and go sideways....I put the pass on as the car behind them did the same thing.  The cars behind me stacked up like a log jam.  It turned into kind of a car jumble and closed to road for over an hour.  First few laps on the quad were really fun with only about 20 people there...
> Moral of this story.  If you're coming up, come early.  And hit harlow hill with a good head of Steam.



i never new it was called that. but used to hate it when people would take it to slow you would always have to pull the same move you did. 

shit i really wish i didnt have to work till 1am tomorrow. i would so be on my way to stowe.


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## BushMogulMaster (Dec 10, 2008)

Forecast is looking good for 3000' at Mt. Ellen:



> Thursday Night: Snow. Low around 20. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.
> 
> Friday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 24. North wind between 6 and 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.



If you look at the NWS weather graph, it looks like we'll end up with around 15" at 3000'.  Hopefully a few more on Summit.


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## Zand (Dec 10, 2008)

Sorry Greg, but this shouldn't be official. You haven't complained about sleet yet.


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## jaywbigred (Dec 11, 2008)

As of right now the forecast looks pretty good for the drive up 87/Thruway on Friday night as long as they have enough time to clean it up.

And even in southern VT, looks like a net gain event with a chance to turn out well at altitude. Anyone want to venture a guess what conditions will be like Saturday at places like Stratton, Mt. Snow, and Okemo?


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## Euler (Dec 11, 2008)

jaywbigred said:


> As of right now the forecast looks pretty good for the drive up 87/Thruway on Friday night as long as they have enough time to clean it up.
> 
> And even in southern VT, looks like a net gain event with a chance to turn out well at altitude. Anyone want to venture a guess what conditions will be like Saturday at places like Stratton, Mt. Snow, and Okemo?




Well...the NWS forecast for West Dover is predicting 1-2 Thusday, 3-5 Thursday night, and 3-5 Friday.  It looks like we will be, as usual, in the mixing zone so we might get burned and just get an icy mess out of this, or, if all goes well, we might wind up with a foot of snow.  We'll know Friday morning!


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## Euler (Dec 11, 2008)

ARRGH!  NWS just updated the SOVt forecast, now they predict little to no snow and massive amounts of freezing rain :angry:


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## ALLSKIING (Dec 11, 2008)

Euler said:


> ARRGH!  NWS just updated the SOVt forecast, now they predict little to no snow and massive amounts of freezing rain :angry:


Go north.


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## drjeff (Dec 11, 2008)

Euler said:


> ARRGH!  NWS just updated the SOVt forecast, now they predict little to no snow and massive amounts of freezing rain :angry:




Gotta get the center of this storm to move just a bit East!!!  Right now, it's projected to be on basically a Montauk Point-Groton-Providence-Boston path, we need it to go Martha's Vineyard-P'town-Southern tip of Nova Scotia line.

50 miles one way or another will make a HUGE difference across Southern and even central VT where 50 miles East will likely eliminate any chances of any mixing in central VT.

Gotta love the variability of this system, where SW Louisana will get more accumulating snow out of this system then basically all of Southern New England with the current forcast


----------



## drjeff (Dec 11, 2008)

BTW, on the accuweather forums, the hype about this storm is amazing! Almost 350 pages, 6800+ posts and over 250,000 views!! (and all of these will grow ALOT in the next 36 hours or so)

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=9313&st=6800&start=6800


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 11, 2008)

Holy crap this is a big storm!  And look at the Pool of deep blue in LA.








BTW, Greg, can you move the Weather Forum into the Skiing and Snow Boarding forum for the winter? I think it was like that last year.


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## bvibert (Dec 11, 2008)

KingM said:


> Any chance they'll open MRG on Friday, so I don't have to wait until Sunday to go skiing?



Sounds like it'll be a Saturday opening at best..


----------



## Greg (Dec 11, 2008)

from_the_NEK said:


> Holy crap this is a big storm!  And look at the Pool of deep blue in LA.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That is a pretty impressive radar.

Moving the forum...


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## billski (Dec 11, 2008)

SnowRider said:


> Southern NH predictions?


my uneducated guess is niar to sleet.


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## tjf67 (Dec 11, 2008)

Calling for 6 to 12 in the dacks.  If Mother Nature sneezes it could miss us to the east.  K and the loaf  are going to be the big winners out oif this one.  k may get rain but the loaf is going to get dumped on


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## frozencorn (Dec 11, 2008)

My sister called yesterday from Houston, where it was snowing. 

61 here and snowing in Houston. WTF?


----------



## Greg (Dec 11, 2008)

Josh Fox MRG blog update:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2008/12/by-razor-thin-margin.html


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## drjeff (Dec 11, 2008)

This is REALLY F'd up!

CNN has live video of it snowing in *NEW ORLEANS* right now! 

http://www.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live.html?stream=stream2


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## Greg (Dec 11, 2008)

Anyone else dying for the Burlington NWS office to update its forecasts? They're all about 7 hours old.


----------



## danny p (Dec 11, 2008)

yup, patiently waiting...


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## deadheadskier (Dec 11, 2008)

tjf67 said:


> Calling for 6 to 12 in the dacks.  If Mother Nature sneezes it could miss us to the east.  K and the loaf  are going to be the big winners out oif this one.  k may get rain but the loaf is going to get dumped on



I will be at Sugarloaf on Sunday.  If you are wrong, expect an intraweb ass kicking


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## andyzee (Dec 11, 2008)

I'll report from K


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## JD (Dec 11, 2008)

I'll have a TR from Mansfield woods tomorrow if all goes according to plan...


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## KingM (Dec 11, 2008)

Greg said:


> Josh Fox MRG blog update:
> 
> http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2008/12/by-razor-thin-margin.html



I'll take the short term forecast, but I wish the next two weeks looked better. I'm hoping it turns out more like last year, where the medium term was always doom and gloom that somehow kept getting pushed back for us in the north country.


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## danny p (Dec 11, 2008)

dumping @ K right now:

http://www.killington.com/winter/the_mountain/k1_webcam/index.html

hopefully it stays all snow.........fingers crossed here.


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## JD (Dec 11, 2008)

snowing at my house.


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## WWF-VT (Dec 11, 2008)

NOAA for Warren, VT at 11 AM today

This Afternoon: Snow, mainly after 3pm. High near 28. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible. 

Tonight: Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. 

Friday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 30. North wind between 3 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. 

Friday Night: A slight chance of snow showers before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 5. North wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 17. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph. 

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2. 

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34.

Looking good for a cold but sunny Saturday


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## Johnskiismore (Dec 11, 2008)

Snowing nicely here, I hope the predictions are right!  Sooooo not going to day job tomorrow!


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## lerops (Dec 11, 2008)

Catskills seem to be a question mark. Gore might be an option for those driving North.


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## campgottagopee (Dec 11, 2008)

Here in CNY it's been snowing for an hour--calling for 5-10 by tomorrow A.M.


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## davidhowland14 (Dec 11, 2008)

raining here in MA, has been all day.


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## billski (Dec 11, 2008)

frozencorn said:


> My sister called yesterday from Houston, where it was snowing.
> 
> 61 here and snowing in Houston. WTF?



Yeah, one of my team members reported the same thing.  She was so astonished she could not concentrate!


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## KingM (Dec 11, 2008)

billski said:


> Yeah, one of my team members reported the same thing.  She was so astonished she could not concentrate!



Hey, I live in a place with 250 inches of snow a year, and I have the same problem when I look out my window and see white stuff falling magically from the sky.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 11, 2008)

37 degrees and raining here..Blue mountain once again shutdown early..at 4PM...the manmade snow will hold up though..


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## drjeff (Dec 11, 2008)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> 37 degrees and raining here..Blue mountain once again shutdown early..at 4PM...the manmade snow will hold up though..



No PM Blue session for Steeze , sounds like a bar night if you ask me :beer:


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 11, 2008)

drjeff said:


> No PM Blue session for Steeze , sounds like a bar night if you ask me :beer:



No it's a sit in front of the computer night for me..the new owner of Blue is very cheap and closes when it rains..


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## powderfreak (Dec 11, 2008)

DECEMBER 11-12 STORM FORECAST PRIMARILY FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT

Forecast:  Snow breaks out later this evening and becomes heavy at times after midnight.  Snow will mix with and change to sleet for a time during the early morning hours (4-7am), especially along and SE of a line running from Binghamton, NY to Sherbrooke, QC (includes the Green Mtn spine and possibly BTV).  Some freezing rain may even mix in from Rutland   Mixed precipitation goes back to all snow as the low passes to our east between 7-10am.  Snow continues tomorrow before tapering off during the late afternoon.

Total accumulations for Central and Northern Vermont...widespread 7-14" with those who experience extended mixing seeing the lower value, and those who see all snow reaching the higher value.  If for some reason it doesn't sleet north of Rutland, places in Addison and Washington counties could see locally higher amounts.

Discussion:

Precipitation will be slow to move northward, but make no mistake, we are in for a heavy precipitation event here.  Basin QPF averages should be greater than 1" across all of Vermont except maybe a portion of far NW Franklin Cnty.  Central and eastern Vermont is looking at an average of 1.5"...maybe even some 2" amounts further SE.  What type of precipitation won't be fully determined until its actually happening...the thermal profiles are making my head spin.

Looking at the satellite presentation this afternoon (image from 1pm), it was obvious that this is rapidly becoming a major mid-latitude cyclone.  And talk about tapping deep tropical and Atlantic moisture...note the southerly inflow stretching to lower Central America as well as the massive on-shore flow along the entire eastern seaboard.   
http://tinyurl.com/5lujem

We will have no problem with QPF with this type of inflow over-top a steeply sloped thermal gradient.  This baroclinic zone will promote intense frontogenic forcing with bands of heavy precipitation inhabiting the larger shield.  If we can stay snow, snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely after midnight tonight.

This is what we are working with right now, and this mod/hvy precipitation will continue to slowly lift northwest this evening...FYI- the Intellicast radar certainly has one of the better resolution p-type schemes out there:
http://tinyurl.com/6sxoto

Snow has been trying to develop from western NY back to Ohio this afternoon under strong divergence in the right-rear quad of the upper level jet, and it is finally starting to moisten the lower levels.  Later tonight, the best upper level divergence will swing over the North Country in tandem with the low/mid level forcing...the synoptics are looking good at this point.

P-type?  Going to start as snow everywhere but later tonight as the low crosses Long Island into SNE, pesky above freezing layers begin to show up from 900mb to 700mb.  The soundings from BTV indicate some minor 0C-1C warm air in the vicinity of 875mb...but to our east we've got a more pronounced warm layer in the soundings indicating we will go to sleet for a time up and down the Green Mtns.  The caveat is that heavy precipitation from synoptic factors could mix out the warm layer through cooling caused by melting snowflakes...and we end up with a column that remains barely below freezing.

For the forecast, I've used the H10-H7 284dm thickness contour as the dividing line between snow and sleet as this best maps the current situation.  Per the SREF (short-range ensemble forecast), the farthest NW this contour gets is to the Binghamton, NY to Sherbrooke, QC line...and encompasses the Green Mtns for roughly 2-3 hours of the event before getting yanked east.

Snow then continues at a light to moderate clip into Friday afternoon.  Winds do not seem to be a huge issue with this storm, though could see some 30-40mph gusts in the higher elevations...but I'm not concerned with wind hold at this time.

Get out there and enjoy it!

-Scott


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## JD (Dec 11, 2008)

I just made this my desktop..
http://backtotheearthgroup.com/scottb/wx/Dec 11/SAT_EUS_WVENH.gif


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## KingM (Dec 11, 2008)

That sounds fantastic. I'm greedy, give us the higher amounts, please.


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## Zand (Dec 11, 2008)

Freezing rain here all day, still 30 degrees and I can't even walk up the driveway to my car at the moment. Unless some drastic warmup and melting occur, no way I'm making it to school tomorrow.


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## Johnskiismore (Dec 11, 2008)

Three inches here, but the snow is turning a little 'sleety'  we'll see


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## ERJ-145CA (Dec 11, 2008)

Torrential rain here in northwestern NJ, temps forcasted to be in the teens at night starting tomorrow night so recovery snowmaking can take place.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 11, 2008)

35 and raining here..Blue mountain reopens tomorrow with more terrain..amazing snowmaking earlier in the week..hopefully it ends as some snow..


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## jaywbigred (Dec 11, 2008)

Anyone want to venture a guess on road conditions tomorrow throughout the northeast?


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## drjeff (Dec 11, 2008)

jaywbigred said:


> Anyone want to venture a guess on road conditions tomorrow throughout the northeast?



Take your pick.  Flooding, ice, tree debris, snow.  You name it and pretty much with the exception of "clear and dry" you'll find it tommorrow across the East


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## deadheadskier (Dec 11, 2008)

Reporting live from a battery powered lap top by candle light in Southeast, NH.  Freezing rain has been falling since 5PM and tree limbs are snapping like twigs all over.  No power and tomorrow morning is sure to be an ugly one.

If this is happening here, I have faith that the good stuff and lots of it is falling up north at elevation :grin:


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## severine (Dec 11, 2008)

Still rain here, falling hard. Sump pump is going off every minute or two in the basement. I REALLY hope we don't lose power... I don't think I can bail the basement by myself and watch the kids.


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## hardline (Dec 12, 2008)

severine said:


> Still rain here, falling hard. Sump pump is going off every minute or two in the basement. I REALLY hope we don't lose power... I don't think I can bail the basement by myself and watch the kids.



put the kids to work. lol


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## JD (Dec 12, 2008)

Wokw up to 8 inches, with some funk on top.  Not a crust, but definitly a thick layer on top of softer snow.  Hopefully not up high in the MRV or up in Lamoille county...


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 12, 2008)

jaywbigred said:


> Anyone want to venture a guess on road conditions tomorrow throughout the northeast?



Variable..lol..

We received 3+ inches of rain since Wednesday.  Now it's a fog and mist outside..Blame it on the Rain!!!!


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## severine (Dec 12, 2008)

I think it stayed rain here all night, even though we were in a risk zone for ice. Thank goodness. Still have power, too. Of course, I didn't sleep well since I kept worrying about having to bail out the basement...


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## WJenness (Dec 12, 2008)

Got up this morning to the power flickering on and off. Then it went off and stayed off... a thin coating of ice on the trees, many bent over / down / cut up on the side of the road... luckily it had transitioned to NCP (and not the freezing kind) when I hit the road for work.

I threw an extra blanket over my girlfriend before I left so that she wouldn't get cold...  hopefully the power won't be out too long.

-w


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## Moe Ghoul (Dec 12, 2008)

Sugarbush v. Mother Nature

They reported 7" this AM, that's a win considering what mighta happened............


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## o3jeff (Dec 12, 2008)

Just wondering how low the snow line ended up last night so I can decide were to ski this weekend since CT skiing might not be so good. I see CT ski club has Stratton tickets for $35 this weekend so that might be and option.


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## WJenness (Dec 12, 2008)

Girlfriend checks in from the homefront... still without power. She's disappointed because she can't make tea (crappy electric stove...).

-w


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## jaywbigred (Dec 12, 2008)

o3jeff said:


> Just wondering how low the snow line ended up last night so I can decide were to ski this weekend since CT skiing might not be so good. I see CT ski club has Stratton tickets for $35 this weekend so that might be and option.



Stratton reporting plenty of ice, but claiming their groomers can handle it...

Mt. Snow reporting similar ice, but warning they won't be grooming quite as much.

Killington not saying much as to what they got, but read between the lines and you can tell they got ice too, as the discuss ice-related power outtages at various lodges/parts of the mountain which will decrease access today.

I just hope the New York Thruway and S. VT roads are cleared up by the time I am driving through around 11 p.m.


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## billski (Dec 12, 2008)

o3jeff said:


> Just wondering how low the snow line ended up last night so I can decide were to ski this weekend since CT skiing might not be so good. I see CT ski club has Stratton tickets for $35 this weekend so that might be and option.


Stratton and Mount Snow are weighing in with 2" snow, and icing, which has closed schools in the area.  
Bromley reports "heavy icing."
Killington reports 10" new but also says "Snowdon Mountain and the Northridge areas will open as soon as possible. However, weather conditions will impact lift operations throughout the day."
Okemo reports 2" new and a "mix", requesting patience for lift openings.
Sugarbush reports 6" new and skiing powder.  
MRG reports 8" new, but some freezing rain on top.
So based on anecdotal information only, the line is probably between Kmart and Sugarbush.


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## loafer89 (Dec 12, 2008)

We where thinking about using our free tickets to Smugglers and Waterville Valley this weekend, but I am thinking we will wait and go another time.


It's currently pouring rain at Sugarloaf at present:angry:


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## loafer89 (Dec 12, 2008)

billski said:


> Stratton and Mount Snow are weighing in with 2" snow, and icing, which has closed schools in the area.
> Bromley reports "heavy icing."
> Killington reports 10" new but also says "Snowdon Mountain and the Northridge areas will open as soon as possible. However, weather conditions will impact lift operations throughout the day."
> Okemo reports 2" new and a "mix", requesting patience for lift openings.
> ...


 

Smugglers Notch has 30F and freezing rain as of 8:44am, so it's raining way north at the present time.


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## billski (Dec 12, 2008)

loafer89 said:


> Smugglers Notch has 30F and freezing rain as of 8:44am, so it's raining way north at the present time.


Interesting how things develop.  Morrisville airport reports light freezing rain and Burke is reporting similar.   Here's hoping it doesn't last too long.


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## awf170 (Dec 12, 2008)

Moe Ghoul said:


> Sugarbush v. Mother Nature
> 
> They reported 7" this AM, that's a win considering what mighta happened............



...and Jay is now looking way better despite what all the shills had to say.



			
				billski said:
			
		

> Sugarbush reports 6" new and skiing powder.



By powder they mean 6 inches of sludge capped over with a nice layer of ice.  What a bunch of liars...


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## Moe Ghoul (Dec 12, 2008)

awf170 said:


> ...and Jay is now looking way better despite what all the shills had to say.
> 
> 
> 
> By powder they mean 6 inches of sludge capped over with a nice layer of ice.  What a bunch of liars...



:lol: Sludge, sleet, crud, it's better than rain..........If it isn't the primo stuff it's called base builder. Weather should be cold enough at nite to kick on the guns and make Moe happy upon arrival Tues. They gotta kick it into gear for the holidays, right?


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## severine (Dec 12, 2008)

o3jeff said:


> Just wondering how low the snow line ended up last night so I can decide were to ski this weekend since CT skiing might not be so good. I see CT ski club has Stratton tickets for $35 this weekend so that might be and option.


Suck it up, bucko!  The only way I'll be skiing this weekend is at Sundown, so I have no choice. Hopefully they'll open..


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## awf170 (Dec 12, 2008)

Moe Ghoul said:


> :lol: Sludge, sleet, crud, it's better than rain..........If it isn't the primo stuff it's called base builder.



Oh, I'm definitely not complaining about this weather.  I know it is a wicked base builder.  Though I am slightly annoyed that I'm sitting here, and not skiing powder right now.  I actually got up at 5:30, checked the radar, and just went right back to sleep.

I'm calling Sugarbush's snow reporters a bunch of liars since there is no way they got powder.  It's one thing to call dense, but at least dry snow powder.  But when you get wet snow and top it off with a layer of freezing rain, it's just ridiculous.   Way to go Sugarbush...


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## severine (Dec 12, 2008)

I know some people who will likely give us a report on such soon....

::


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## o3jeff (Dec 12, 2008)

severine said:


> I know some people who will likely give us a report on such soon....
> 
> ::



Where did Frick and Frack end up going?


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## 2knees (Dec 12, 2008)

they went to sugarbush.  very interested to hear their reports.  basing our monday call partially on that.


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## severine (Dec 12, 2008)

o3jeff said:


> Where did Frick and Frack end up going?


The bush. Trekchick is at Stowe right now, actually, and offered to ski with them if they traveled up there; but they decided to stick with the bush.


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## powderfreak (Dec 12, 2008)

awf170 said:


> Oh, I'm definitely not complaining about this weather.  I know it is a wicked base builder.  Though I am slightly annoyed that I'm sitting here, and not skiing powder right now.  I actually got up at 5:30, checked the radar, and just went right back to sleep.
> 
> I'm calling Sugarbush's snow reporters a bunch of liars since there is no way they got powder.  It's one thing to call dense, but at least dry snow powder.  But when you get wet snow and top it off with a layer of freezing rain, it's just ridiculous.   Way to go Sugarbush...



Are you at Sugarbush right now?  Word from Stowe this morning is 6-8" of dense snow which was quite nice at 8am opening, however through the course of the morning its taken a little glazing...though still skiing decently as long as it goes back to snow ASAP.  I wish I had gotten up there this morning, Liftline opened with 20 foot snowmaking piles all over the place...it looked like a rowdy terrain park on a steep trail yesterday.  I'm sure its probably one fun bump/terrain park-esque run today.


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## severine (Dec 12, 2008)

awf170 said:


> By powder they mean 6 inches of sludge capped over with a nice layer of ice.  What a bunch of liars...


I have just been advised that this is not the scenario. Indeed, it is not prime powder, but it is not like this either. The guys are having fun and fresh snow is falling.


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## KingM (Dec 12, 2008)

It's not wet snow and it's not powder either. It's moderately dense snow with a glaze on top. It is snowing again right now, but earlier was a very fine freezing rain. It's the sort of surface that is just fine once it has been skied on once or twice.


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## deadheadskier (Dec 12, 2008)

tjf67 said:


> Calling for 6 to 12 in the dacks.  If Mother Nature sneezes it could miss us to the east.  K and the loaf  are going to be the big winners out oif this one.  k may get rain but the loaf is going to get dumped on



goes to show the obvious inexact science of the weather.  Sugarloaf got 4 inches and it's currently raining.  It's supposed to switch back over and there's a possibility of a few more inches, but I doubt it amounts to much.

I honestly don't know why I even bother reading / caring about a snow forecast.  Their website yesterday said they were expecting a foot and a half plus.  Can't complain about a net game, but stupid of me to get excited based on a forecast.

oh well....I still be there Sunday enjoying some fine hard pack and frozen granular :lol:


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## awf170 (Dec 12, 2008)

powderfreak said:


> Are you at Sugarbush right now?  Word from Stowe this morning is 6-8" of dense snow which was quite nice at 8am opening, however through the course of the morning its taken a little glazing...though still skiing decently as long as it goes back to snow ASAP.  I wish I had gotten up there this morning, Liftline opened with 20 foot snowmaking piles all over the place...it looked like a rowdy terrain park on a steep trail yesterday.  I'm sure its probably one fun bump/terrain park-esque run today.





severine said:


> I have just been advised that this is not the scenario. Indeed, it is not prime powder, but it is not like this either. The guys are having fun and fresh snow is falling.




It may ski well, but it still isn't powder.  Crust layers can be thin enough so that they are easily skiable, but it still doesn't take away from the fact that the snow isn't powder.  I would have been there if the driving wasn't so bad.


From TGR:
"crusty mashed potatoes on ice basically sums up the conditions at stowe this morning."


----------



## powderfreak (Dec 12, 2008)

Dumping in Burlington right now...this stuff is accumulating a lot faster than last night too.  Maybe another 2-4" for the mtns today?


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## powderfreak (Dec 12, 2008)

awf170 said:


> It may ski well, but it still isn't powder.  Crust layers can be thin enough so that they are easily skiable, but it still doesn't take away from the fact that the snow isn't powder.  I would have been there if the driving wasn't so bad.
> 
> 
> From TGR:
> "crusty mashed potatoes on ice basically sums up the conditions at stowe this morning."



True.  I think I might be under-estimating the density/wetness of the snow in the mtns...we definitely had an inversion and still do.  Its been in the upper teens all night at my place on Lake Champlain but obs show temps stayed in the 25-32F range in the mountains all night.

Here in Burlington its dense but not even close to mashed potatoes.  Its still 18-degree snow blowing and drifting all over the place.  The flakes were needles here and thats what gives it that dense characteristic because needles don't stack up.  I think of dense snow as not having a lot of air in it, but not necessarily being wet.  

If you skied what we have in Burlington, it would be very enjoyable and still called powder...however it seems the mountains are the warmer/wetter ones this time.


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## freezorburn (Dec 12, 2008)

Sick and tired of K-marts fake reports.  THEY RIGHT OUT LIE ABOUT SNOWFALLS.  

I drove up there before thanks giving and they said a foot of fresh then uped it to 13" of refesh. I was there it was more like 7-8" of cement and 3" melted.  I skiied hard pack and ice with bare spots.

I WILL NEVER BELIEVE K_MART REPORTS AGAIN.  I check sugarbush and figure Kmart is about the same.  

K-mart  Claims 85" so far this season  What the hell are they smoking?


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## tjf67 (Dec 12, 2008)

deadheadskier said:


> goes to show the obvious inexact science of the weather.  Sugarloaf got 4 inches and it's currently raining.  It's supposed to switch back over and there's a possibility of a few more inches, but I doubt it amounts to much.
> 
> I honestly don't know why I even bother reading / caring about a snow forecast.  Their website yesterday said they were expecting a foot and a half plus.  Can't complain about a net game, but stupid of me to get excited based on a forecast.
> 
> oh well....I still be there Sunday enjoying some fine hard pack and frozen granular :lol:



OOF that sucks.  Still hope hthough they are probably going to get snow for another 8 hrs.  Un here in the dacks we got nothing but snow in LP.  5 in town 9 on the hill.
Me I am working today doing bullshit  so I will get sloppy seconds in the morning.


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## The Sneak (Dec 12, 2008)

Starting to wonder if tomorrow's day trip to stowe is worth it. :angry:


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## jaywbigred (Dec 12, 2008)

The Sneak said:


> Starting to wonder if tomorrow's day trip to stowe is worth it. :angry:



wondering same about entire weekend in S. Vt....


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## frozencorn (Dec 12, 2008)

jaywbigred said:


> wondering same about entire weekend in S. Vt....



Debating Stratton/Waterville/SR right now. Still up in the air.


----------



## freezorburn (Dec 12, 2008)

jaywbigred said:


> wondering same about entire weekend in S. Vt....



S vt.  Got hammered with rain,  then they got some snow at the end  < 3".  Temps are dropping fast. Figure conditions would be hardpack with only the snowmaking runs open. 

I'm Heading up For Monday and Tuesday for the Snowmobile opening day.  wish for snow


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## drjeff (Dec 12, 2008)

jaywbigred said:


> wondering same about entire weekend in S. Vt....





frozencorn said:


> Debating Stratton/Waterville/SR right now. Still up in the air.




Asuming I have power and the cell tower on Mount Snow has power,  I'll post a first hand account of Southern VT later this evening.  I'm guessing that "shiny" migth be one of my descriptive terms


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## MichaelJ (Dec 12, 2008)

On a slightly side note, western and northern MA, and Southern NH got blasted with ice. Power's out all over the place, trees down, roads blocked. Use extreme caution when driving from the rain areas to the hopefully-snow areas!


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## jaywbigred (Dec 12, 2008)

drjeff said:


> Asuming I have power and the cell tower on Mount Snow has power,  I'll post a first hand account of Southern VT later this evening.  I'm guessing that "shiny" migth be one of my descriptive terms



Defiantely looking forward to this...friends of mine will be driving from New Haven to Stratton, so I'm equally interested in road conditions as I am in on-slope snow conditions.


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## MommaBear (Dec 12, 2008)

There is currently no power at Mount Snow and our condo (3 mi south) has no power (thou it did earlier this morning).  There is no idea on when the power will be back on (they are talking Monday for Keene NH).  Our maintenance guy says its "real ugly" and people are being encouraged NOT to travel at this time.


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## WJenness (Dec 12, 2008)

I killed my SR trip for a multitude of reasons...

But I may change my mind as we don't have power at home... If the power isn't going to be on at home all weekend, I might as well go to SR and hang out at my buddy's condo, even if the skiing sucks.

not sure yet.

-w


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## kingslug (Dec 12, 2008)

This looks like a "skip it" weekend.


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## billski (Dec 12, 2008)

drjeff said:


> Asuming I have power and the cell tower on Mount Snow has power,  I'll post a first hand account of Southern VT later this evening.  I'm guessing that "shiny" migth be one of my descriptive terms



Instead of "frostbite warning" there should be a "broken bones warning" issued


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## JD (Dec 12, 2008)

Snow conditions out back in my lost ski area are comicly bad.  On the plus side, alot of the brush got flattened and locked in so as the snow piles up the skiing back there will start to get real fun.
PS...weather men SUCK at their jobs.


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## tjf67 (Dec 12, 2008)

JD said:


> Snow conditions out back in my lost ski area are comicly bad.  On the plus side, alot of the brush got flattened and locked in so as the snow piles up the skiing back there will start to get real fun.
> PS...weather men SUCK at their jobs.



It stopped snowing in LP.  We ended up with 8 in the city over a foot on the hill


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## Moe Ghoul (Dec 12, 2008)

tjf67 said:


> It stopped snowing in LP.  We ended up with 8 in the city over a foot on the hill



Crust and slop or fluff? Might have to post a Sugarbush v. WF thread.  If WF got the goods, we might have to rethink 'bush next week.


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## tjf67 (Dec 12, 2008)

Moe Ghoul said:


> Crust and slop or fluff? Might have to post a Sugarbush v. WF thread.  If WF got the goods, we might have to rethink 'bush next week.



We did not get any rain out of this.   F the noreasters give me the lake effect and clippers any day of the week.


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## JD (Dec 12, 2008)

Wish I had tomorrow off, I'd be on the 6 o'clock ferry.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 12, 2008)

kingslug said:


> This looks like a "skip it" weekend.



Boo..so you guys won't ski groomed hardpack???


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## riverc0il (Dec 12, 2008)

Rad. I don't feel so bad about making the decision to work today. I could not have possibly decided any other way. But at least I didn't miss much. Tomorrow should own.


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## riverc0il (Dec 12, 2008)

This morning was crazy here in Ashland. I woke up to the dog whinning to go out at 5:30am. I grabbed the alarm clock, took a look at the time, and then say a blue flash out my window and the power went out. Getting a dog out for a walk while is pitch black in the house and you can't find a flash light SUCKS. Then we get outside... torrential nearly freezing rain. The worst rain I can ever remember being in. Slick frozen ground, I am sliding all over the place, can't see, its pitch black out with no light, and the plow guy is trying to do his thing while the dog is trying to do her thing. Just a sucky wake up call, for sure. Net loss of snow big time here just south of the Whites though the mountains faired significantly better.


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## tree_skier (Dec 12, 2008)

drjeff said:


> Asuming I have power and the cell tower on Mount Snow has power,  I'll post a first hand account of Southern VT later this evening.  I'm guessing that "shiny" migth be one of my descriptive terms



About 3 inches of solid ice.  Snow was shut down today, no power.  we evacuated today (with fully gassed Stihl), roads are iffy with trees still falling.


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## awf170 (Dec 12, 2008)

riverc0il said:


> Rad. I don't feel so bad about making the decision to work today. I could not have possibly decided any other way. But at least I didn't miss much. Tomorrow should own.




I was thinking about joining you at Jay tomorrow, then I saw this:



> *Saturday: *Mostly sunny and cold, with a steady temperature around -4. Wind chill values as low as -23. West wind 7 to 10 mph becoming south.



Yeah, no.  I like my face and toes the color they are.


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## Glenn (Dec 12, 2008)

My wife and I have been up at Mt. Snow since Monday....helluva storm Thursday into this AM. We rented a condo at Seasons I think we were the only ones in the entire complex...aside from one or two other cars I saw. 

The power went out once or twice last night/early this AM. We got up around 8AM (Ha! Vacation time!), made some breakfast and grumbled that it was still raining. I started to look outside and there was a A LOT of ice on the trees. Around 10/10:30ish (IIRC), the sun started to peak out. About the same time, the power went out again. We figured we'd load up and head over the mountain. I think we were over there around 11:30/12. They were shut; some dude in the lot told us ETA was 12 to 24 hours before the power came back on. Disapointed, we headed back to the condo, packed up our stuff and headed south to CT. 

Once we started driving south on 100, we realized how bad this storm was. Power lines were sagging, trees were snapped...it was pretty crazy. I had my wife operate the video camera at a few points while I drove. It was amazing to see how beautiful the ice looked in the sun, but at the same time, how destructive it had been. Things got really interesting once we hit Rt 112 and headed south; lots of downed lines and trees. Some trees were still in the road. Power was out from the mountain....and quite a ways down south. The first place that had power was Greenfield MA; all other places were dark. 

I took a whole bunch of pics and I'll be sure to post them later. I wouldn't be surprised if Mt. Snow doesn't open tomorrow. They've already cancelled a bunch of events for the weekend. 

On a related note...crazy weather this week up there. -2F Monday AM, Sunny and fresh snow Tuesday, 51F and rain(downpours kids) Wed, Upper 20's and freezing rain on Thursday.... Gotta love New England.


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## riverc0il (Dec 12, 2008)

awf170 said:


> I was thinking about joining you at Jay tomorrow, then I saw this:.


Wuss.


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## loafer89 (Dec 12, 2008)

We decided to stay home this weekend and buy a tree on saturday and go to my dad's birthday party in the evening. I might kayak on monday once some of the rivers come down. We have very high water and near flood/flood stage on alot of water around here.


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## billski (Dec 13, 2008)

I'm just hoping the ice didn't ruin the BC and slack country lines.  I suspect in S. VT it has ruined some.  Any word on tree damage in Northern VT?


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## JD (Dec 13, 2008)

Natural snow here is terrible.  I won't be skiing until something major happens, or a bunch of minor things happen....


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## kingslug (Dec 13, 2008)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> Boo..so you guys won't ski groomed hardpack???



Might hit Hunter Monday...might soften up by then as temps are rising then.


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## Greg (Dec 13, 2008)

JD said:


> Natural snow here is terrible.  I won't be skiing until something major happens, or a bunch of minor things happen....



Sucks sometimes to be a powder snob, eh? 

Seriously, the natural trails at Sugarbush were skiing just fine yesterday, especially lower elevations. The Mall was beautiful powder bumps. Castlerock is fine. We didn't venture into the woods, but it seemed the snow in the woods off Rumble might not be _that _bad. It was almost like the canopy of evergreens protected it from major crusting.


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## riverc0il (Dec 13, 2008)

riverc0il said:


> Tomorrow should own.





awf170 said:


> I was thinking about joining you at Jay tomorrow. Yeah, no.





riverc0il said:


> Wuss.



A truer string of posts for sure.


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## JD (Dec 13, 2008)

Greg said:


> Sucks sometimes to be a powder snob, eh?
> 
> Seriously, the natural trails at Sugarbush were skiing just fine yesterday, especially lower elevations. The Mall was beautiful powder bumps. Castlerock is fine. We didn't venture into the woods, but it seemed the snow in the woods off Rumble might not be _that _bad. It was almost like the canopy of evergreens protected it from major crusting.



Not really.  Sucks to have people hype an event and get skunked for sure, but days where unforcast feet of snow fall make up fot it.  I came home, went XC skiing with my dog in the back yard and had alot of laughs.  True about the soft woods preventing the crust from forming.  

I ski when the snow is good.  I don't feel like I have to ski mediocre snow because I bought a pass, took a vacation day, or drove 5 hours to get here.   If I still lived down your way, I prolly wouldn't even ski.  I'd still me MTBing and paddling all winter.  Yesterday was an epic White Water day in CT and Western Mass.  You had the equivalent of a 2 foot dump, and it would have been overhead powder.....in your back yard..that's where I would have been.  On Sandy Brook about 20 minutes from your house, then 20 minutes up the road to Hubbard.  I had 2 POW days this week so I can't really complain.  We all create our own reality.  Mine is powder only.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 13, 2008)

So JD does that mean your not going to drive 5 hours to Jersey and ski Xanadu this summer???


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## JD (Dec 13, 2008)

Will they let me skin there?


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 13, 2008)

JD said:


> Will they let me skin there?



If you tried to skin up, they'd probably call security..


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## Greg (Dec 13, 2008)

JD said:


> Not really.  Sucks to have people hype an event and get skunked for sure, but days where unforcast feet of snow fall make up fot it.  I came home, went XC skiing with my dog in the back yard and had alot of laughs.  True about the soft woods preventing the crust from forming.
> 
> I ski when the snow is good.  I don't feel like I have to ski mediocre snow because I bought a pass, took a vacation day, or drove 5 hours to get here.   If I still lived down your way, I prolly wouldn't even ski.  I'd still me MTBing and paddling all winter.  Yesterday was an epic White Water day in CT and Western Mass.  You had the equivalent of a 2 foot dump, and it would have been overhead powder.....in your back yard..that's where I would have been.  On Sandy Brook about 20 minutes from your house, then 20 minutes up the road to Hubbard.  I had 2 POW days this week so I can't really complain.  We all create our own reality.  Mine is powder only.



I could see the appeal of white water. Between MTB and skiing, I have enough outdoor hobbies. Would like to get back into backpacking eventually though. Anyway, for me, it's about perspective. Just being up in the mountains of the north country for a brief time is satisfying even if conditions aren't stellar. I've never been picky about the conditions. So if you asked if skiing the 6 runs on Castlerock and one down the Mall was worth the close to 10 hours of driving, I would answer "yes". And I'll be skiing the firm bumps at Sundown a few times in the coming days too and will undoubtedly enjoy myself. Different realities for sure.


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## JD (Dec 13, 2008)

Greg said:


> I could see the appeal of white water. Between MTB and skiing, I have enough outdoor hobbies. Would like to get back into backpacking eventually though. Anyway, for me, it's about perspective. Just being up in the mountains of the north country for a brief time is satisfying even if conditions aren't stellar. I've never been picky about the conditions. So if you asked if skiing the 6 runs on Castlerock and one down the Mall was worth the close to 10 hours of driving, I would answer "yes". And I'll be skiing the firm bumps at Sundown a few times in the coming days too and will undoubtedly enjoy myself. Different realities for sure.



Why do you have enough outdoor hobbies.  For the cost of 5 or 6 trpis like you just made, you could have complete creeking setup and enjoy the outdoors on a whole new level.  You live in a great area for it, why not get into what'sin your back yard.  If you'd have posted pics of you on Sandy or Hubbard yesterday, I'd have been wicked jealous!


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## Greg (Dec 13, 2008)

JD said:


> Why do you have enough outdoor hobbies.



Job, 2 small kids and a wife, house/yard to maintain in the summer. I'm really digging the mountain bike now so if I wanted to do something else, I would have to cut back on that. Free "me time" is just limited. Again, different realities.


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## loafer89 (Dec 13, 2008)

Nobody was paddling any of the whitewater that we saw today as most of the rivers are above flood stage and it was very cold today with a high generally in the mid 20's.

The Natchaug (Diane's Pool) Hop and the Scantic where all roaring today.

Natchaug River/Diane's Pool @ 12:30pm 12/13/08:







Michaud's Hole/Natchaug River:






Scantic River/Stokers Rip with a nasty keeper of a hydraulic:






Stokers Rip Wave Train:


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## JD (Dec 13, 2008)

People were on Sandy early.
Looks like Natchaug tomorrow...
http://www.npmb.com/cms2/e107_plugins/forum/forum_viewtopic.php?108559
Nice pics.  Looks like a line on the left with a few real nice surfs down below!


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## loafer89 (Dec 13, 2008)

JD said:


> People were on Sandy early.
> Looks like Natchaug tomorrow...
> http://www.npmb.com/cms2/e107_plugins/forum/forum_viewtopic.php?108559
> Nice pics. Looks like a line on the left with a few real nice surfs down below!


 

I might run the Scantic on monday if the weather warms up as forecast. I am not a real fan of winter paddling as I find myself too busy skiing and I dislike cold water. I have plenty of whitewater within a 1/2 hour drive from home and I paddle with my son from May 15th - November 1st.


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## JD (Dec 13, 2008)

I've been way colder on a ski lift then I ever have on the water, But I def. bring the difficulty down into the comfort zone when it's below freezing.  Not wanting to swim.  I love boating in the winter though. Esspecially just after a light snow when all the rocks have mushrooms of snow and all the branches are snow covered.  The river is a real beautiful place to be.  A few years ago we ran the dryway in February, hitched a shuttle on the plow truck in 10 inches and dumping.  AWESOME RUN.  Made it to Blanford by the afternoon to harvest pow while my nephue and his grom friends lapped the "park"  Chased a red fox down the skiers left trail.  One of my best play days in memory.


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## loafer89 (Dec 13, 2008)

I ran the Dryway in August for the first time with an AMC raft trip and some of the rapids are huge. The paddler sitting in front of me fell out of the raft and swam about 500' of rapids.

My only experience with winter paddling was in February 1996 on the Housatonic River after skiing at Mohawk in the morning.

Today would have sucked if one swam with the air temperature at 27F when we where at Diane's Pool.


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## JD (Dec 14, 2008)

Dryway is not a good place to swim.  Alot of the rapids have boulder sieves in them.  Dryway is a fun run.  Great intro to class 3+, 4.  My first time I capsized 3 times just in Dragon's Tooth.  Nerves....make you paddle like crap.


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## Zand (Dec 15, 2008)

First time on here since I lost power Thursday. Got power back Saturday but didn't get cable or internet till today. I'm lucky enough to live on Route 9 which enabled me to be one of the first to get power back. Most of my town still doesn't have power. I also haven't had school since Thursday and it is uncertain if schools will reopen before Christmas.


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## JD (Dec 16, 2008)

That's some major ice damage.  I think my bro in western Mass is till out too.


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