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## Smellytele (Jan 20, 2017)

What the hell? This is not going the way I want it to...

Vt is starting to look a little damp


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## tnt1234 (Jan 20, 2017)

Yeah, end of day yesterday, things were looking sweet.  Now moving in the wrong direction for both the weekend and that Tuesday event.

We must not be obsessively watching the weather hard enough.


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## 4aprice (Jan 20, 2017)

It going to be a slop storm, wet but probably not harmful to the base, may be good for it.  I don't see that as a negative right now unless your just after powder.  Bastardi was mentioning a favorable situation (state of the SOI) along with a tropical system which has potential to give you good powder down the line (6-10 days).

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## slatham (Jan 20, 2017)

Models not showing a full on powder situation but all have a nice net gainer, even the GFS which right now looks off vs. Euro and Canadian, both of which have been pretty consistent. NAM just picking up storm in its window so next 24 hours should start to clarify. But its a close call either way, but I stand by a nice net gainer, base building storm north of Mass VT/NH border.

As for tomorrow I don't think there will be much but it could be foggy and drizzly.


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## mriceyman (Jan 21, 2017)

Will be a net gain even if sloppy. 


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## Glenn (Jan 22, 2017)

NWS Albany graphics are showing about 4" in SoVT. Looking similar to the storm last week. At least it's not all rain. It's been warm up here the last few days.


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## Tin (Jan 22, 2017)

Mid levels looking better.


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## Zermatt (Jan 22, 2017)

Euro just came in snowy. Model snow maps don't handle sleet well so likely not picking up on this. Sleet or snow, I don't care. As long as it is not rain. 


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## Kleetus (Jan 22, 2017)

Glenn said:


> NWS Albany graphics are showing about 4" in SoVT. Looking similar to the storm last week. At least it's not all rain. It's been warm up here the last few days.



And it was raining pretty good at Mount Snow today starting around 11:30. They need it.


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## 4aprice (Jan 23, 2017)

Kleetus said:


> And it was raining pretty good at Mount Snow today starting around 11:30. They need it.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Only thing that surprises me about that is, I was at Okemo (not that far away), and the rain didn't start till 1:30.  Yes So Vermont needs snow (and hopefully its on the way) but I didn't miss the freezing temps this weekend, and enjoyed the soft snow, though the fog was a little bit of a "pita".

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Glenn (Jan 23, 2017)

Kleetus said:


> And it was raining pretty good at Mount Snow today starting around 11:30. They need it.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



It starting raining at our place just north of Brattleboro around that time as well. A small band of showers rolled though. We really need this pattern shift badly.


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## bdfreetuna (Jan 23, 2017)

4aprice said:


> Yes So Vermont needs snow (and hopefully its on the way)



Northern VT is currently just as bare. Last year was unquestionably better at this point... as my photos from last year at Stowe and MRG at this same time prove (and then turned to sh*t).


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## fbrissette (Jan 23, 2017)

bdfreetuna said:


> Northern VT is currently just as bare. Last year was unquestionably better at this point... as my photos from last year at Stowe and MRG at this same time prove (and then turned to sh*t).



It's bare in the valleys but there is definitely more snow than last year at higher altitude.   There are three feet on the ground at 1800' and 5 feet at 3500' (measured with a probe Saturday).  We never came anywhere close to that last year   And this is high density snow.


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## bdfreetuna (Jan 23, 2017)

fbrissette said:


> It's bare in the valleys but there is definitely more snow than last year at higher altitude.   There are three feet on the ground at 1800' and 5 feet at 3500' (measured with a probe Saturday).  We never came anywhere close to that last year   And this is high density snow.



I was at Smuggs yesterday and Stowe Saturday.. there was nowhere close to 3 feet except in areas where it had drifted. I would not be surprised to hear Jay is doing a lot better as they've had 50 more inches of snow so far.


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## machski (Jan 23, 2017)

Everything I am seeing is more ice than white this storm.  Further NW one goes better shot of all white.  But I think everyone gets at least a crusty top from this one.


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## fbrissette (Jan 23, 2017)

bdfreetuna said:


> I was at Smuggs yesterday and Stowe Saturday.. there was nowhere close to 3 feet except in areas where it had drifted. I would not be surprised to hear Jay is doing a lot better as they've had 50 more inches of snow so far.



Taken around 3000' in the West Bowl.  Considering snow density, her foot was nowhere close to the bottom.  Prime backcoutry conditions although most streams are yet to be filled since it's been so warm lately.


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## Jully (Jan 23, 2017)

fbrissette said:


> Taken around 3000' in the West Bowl.  Considering snow density, her foot was nowhere close to the bottom.  Prime backcoutry conditions although most streams are yet to be filled since it's been so warm lately.
> View attachment 21603



well that snow makes me want to get up to Jay...


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2017)

bdfreetuna said:


> I was at Smuggs yesterday and Stowe Saturday.. there was nowhere close to 3 feet except in areas where it had drifted.



Are you saying woods are currently out of play at Smuggs?   Was planning on Jay Friday and either Smuggs/Stowe Saturday.  Might do Jay/Jay if that's what you're saying.


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## bdfreetuna (Jan 23, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Are you saying woods are currently out of play at Smuggs?   Was planning on Jay Friday and either Smuggs/Stowe Saturday.  Might do Jay/Jay if that's what you're saying.



There was one that was okay, I think it's called Highlander Glades ... on Sterling. Still plenty of bare/rock to avoid though. All the other woods I saw I would consider "out of play" even by my standards.

Might be a different story by the weekend but if you want to ski trees it looks like Jay is the place to be.

FWIW Stowe appeared to have a little better base in the woods, probably in part due to more snowmaking blowover.


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## 4aprice (Jan 23, 2017)

Joe Bastardi posted a GEFS model on his twitter page, that is show some good snows from Pa north.  

FWIW While I choose to stay out of the woods this past weekend, (there were some open) what I saw at Okemo for the most part was not too far away from being in play, and Okemo's not the highest of elevation.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## fbrissette (Jan 23, 2017)

bdfreetuna said:


> There was one that was okay, I think it's called Highlander Glades ... on Sterling. Still plenty of bare/rock to avoid though. All the other woods I saw I would consider "out of play" even by my standards.



Weird, Smuggs being so close to Jay and with similar elevations.  All glades in play at Jay and well covered.  The forecasts look very favorable.   Next week-end could be epic.


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## tnt1234 (Jan 23, 2017)

fbrissette said:


> Weird, Smuggs being so close to Jay and with similar elevations.  All glades in play at Jay and well covered.  The forecasts look very favorable.   Next week-end could be epic.



Am I wrong in thinking Jay does a nice job kind of clearing there graded areas, so that they take less snow to open?

Last year - that horrible year - we got into the woods at Jay after about 10" of snow, and they were really nice - definitely some roots and rocks, but totally skiable.  Where as, down the road at Stowe, woods weren't really in play. 

Is Jay on state land? Always wondered if maybe they have more freedom to clear out the branches and what not....seems like they open up the woods way before other places....


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2017)

Hmmmm.... looks like I may do Jay/Jay then.  No matter, I have vouchers aplenty and love Alice's Table.


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## skiberg (Jan 23, 2017)

Alice's table has gone downhill. Last few times there food was bad. Not even as good as food at Cannon. But they have a noodle place now. No idea how good but I want to try.


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## fbrissette (Jan 23, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Am I wrong in thinking Jay does a nice job kind of clearing there graded areas, so that they take less snow to open?
> 
> Last year - that horrible year - we got into the woods at Jay after about 10" of snow, and they were really nice - definitely some roots and rocks, but totally skiable.  Where as, down the road at Stowe, woods weren't really in play.
> 
> Is Jay on state land? Always wondered if maybe they have more freedom to clear out the branches and what not....seems like they open up the woods way before other places....



Jay is mostly on state land.  The two most skied glades (Timbuktu and Beaver) have constant pitch and don't need much snow to be good, but there are a few that are incredibly rocky and need tons of snow (e.g. staircase and the top of everglade).


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 24, 2017)

skiberg said:


> *Alice's table has gone downhill.* Last few times there food was bad.



Was it this year?  I havent been to JP this year, but I thought AT was fine last year.  

I guess it shouldnt shock me if quality went down this year though given the obvious budget cuts.


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## Tin (Jan 24, 2017)

Pretty amazing gradients, Berkshire East has 1-2" of sleet at the base and 6" of snow up high.


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## tnt1234 (Jan 24, 2017)

Tin said:


> Pretty amazing gradients, Berkshire East has 1-2" of sleet at the base and 6" of snow up high.



Dang - if it were just a few degrees colder, this would have been great.


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## jrmagic (Jan 24, 2017)

tnt1234 said:


> Dang - if it were just a few degrees colder, this would have been great.


Im not complaining as this is good base building material for the woods ahead of the colder weather to come.

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## bzrperfspec77 (Jan 24, 2017)

jrmagic said:


> Im not complaining as this is good base building material for the woods ahead of the colder weather to come.
> 
> Sent from my SM-N920V using AlpineZone mobile app



Especially after the forecast last week for 50 degrees and 2" of rain... We got spared big time.


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## wtcobb (Jan 24, 2017)

Interesting bits of data from MWObs on the "January Thaw":

https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/observer-comments.aspx?id=38495

If the trend continues, the warmth will be over soon...


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## Quietman (Jan 24, 2017)

bzrperfspec77 said:


> Especially after the forecast last week for 50 degrees and 2" of rain... We got spared big time.



This is the 2nd Tuesday storm in a row to do that!  Both early forecasts were for warm rain, then 6" last week and 5" of sleet this time.


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## 4aprice (Jan 24, 2017)

wtcobb said:


> Interesting bits of data from MWObs on the "January Thaw":
> 
> https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/observer-comments.aspx?id=38495
> 
> If the trend continues, the warmth will be over soon...



Most good winters have the "thaw", and now (Jan 24th) right on cue, the "Parade" of storms into the west coast is ending with the storm currently coming or already onshore.  Time for regime change.  February rules the east.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## bigbog (Jan 24, 2017)

How soon we have(_*I have*_) forgotten....it all began after January a few years ago...


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## dlague (Jan 24, 2017)

4aprice said:


> Most good winters have the "thaw", and now (Jan 24th) right on cue, the "Parade" of storms into the west coast is ending with the storm currently coming or already onshore.  Time for regime change.  February rules the east.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Yup we are entering into a 7-10 dry spell with the next potential storm hitting Colorado in early February.  Powder days are gone for a bit.  While we had a phenomenal snow run for he past 5-6 weeks, a break needed to come sooner or later.  

As you indicate, in past years February has been lean on snow accumulation while the east is favorable.  However looking forward past this warm spell, there does not seem to be much in the form of major snow events at least for a couple weeks.


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## Glenn (Jan 24, 2017)

Quietman said:


> This is the 2nd Tuesday storm in a row to do that!  Both early forecasts were for warm rain, then 6" last week and 5" of sleet this time.



Bingo! We lucked out twice. 

Looks like 4" north of Brattleboro on the webcams...and another coating of something frozen came through later in the AM.


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## dlague (Jan 24, 2017)

Glenn said:


> Bingo! We lucked out twice.
> 
> Looks like 4" north of Brattleboro on the webcams...and another coating of something frozen came through later in the AM.



Looks like a wetter ban will come through tonight into tomorrow?

What is amazing, it was warm before this storm and will be warm for a bit after it.


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## Jully (Jan 24, 2017)

dlague said:


> Yup we are entering into a 7-10 dry spell with the next potential storm hitting Colorado in early February.  Powder days are gone for a bit.  While we had a phenomenal snow run for he past 5-6 weeks, a break needed to come sooner or later.
> 
> As you indicate, in past years February has been lean on snow accumulation while the east is favorable.  However looking forward past this warm spell, there does not seem to be much in the form of major snow events at least for a couple weeks.



We can hope for the return of cold temps though!


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## machski (Jan 24, 2017)

dlague said:


> Yup we are entering into a 7-10 dry spell with the next potential storm hitting Colorado in early February.  Powder days are gone for a bit.  While we had a phenomenal snow run for he past 5-6 weeks, a break needed to come sooner or later.
> 
> As you indicate, in past years February has been lean on snow accumulation while the east is favorable.  However looking forward past this warm spell, there does not seem to be much in the form of major snow events at least for a couple weeks.


Cold returns this weekend and potential 9 days out for a good snow storm late next week.  Of the west dries, doesn't always translate to dry east.  Often dry west = snowy east.


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## dlague (Jan 24, 2017)

machski said:


> Cold returns this weekend and potential 9 days out for a good snow storm late next week.  Of the west dries, doesn't always translate to dry east.  Often dry west = snowy east.


I agree, often feed from the Gulf.

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