# Thanksgiving redemption for CT ski areas?



## severine (Nov 16, 2009)

Not my favorite weather source, but this was all I could find for that time period (this is for New Hartford, CT, BTW):

http://www.accuweather.com/us/ct/ne...rtner=netweather&traveler=0&zipChg=1&metric=0

(Hopefully you're seeing what I'm seeing...)



> Wednesday Night, Nov 25
> Low: 24 °F RealFeel®: 9 °F
> Mostly cloudy
> 
> ...


I am fully willing to sacrifice my 5K race on Nov 28th to Ullr if it means the chance of skiing that weekend!!!!!


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## andrec10 (Nov 16, 2009)

Its accuweather. If you check this morning, its already changed for the worse, at least for hopes of opening by Friday or Saturday...Killington, here I come...


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## severine (Nov 16, 2009)

andrec10 said:


> Its accuweather. If you check this morning, its already changed for the worse, at least for hopes of opening by Friday or Saturday...Killington, here I come...



 You're right. Well, it was nice for one night of dreams anyway.


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## billski (Nov 16, 2009)

severine said:


> You're right. Well, it was nice for one night of dreams anyway.



Always be a dreamer.  However, long range (greater than three days) forecasting stinks.  Some of the best snow comes as a surprise.  Don't forget to count sunspots!


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## Greg (Nov 16, 2009)

The end of the 15 day still looks great. Wish we could believe it...


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## Warp Daddy (Nov 16, 2009)

Que Sera Sera -  Just have em waxed and sharpened


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## wa-loaf (Nov 16, 2009)

Greg said:


> The end of the 15 day still looks great. Wish we could believe it...



It's looked that way for the last month. I think they just throw some cold weather out there cause they figure it'll get cold eventually.


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## severine (Nov 16, 2009)

wa-loaf said:


> It's looked that way for the last month. I think they just throw some cold weather out there cause they figure it'll get cold eventually.


:lol: To be a weather forecaster....ahhhh. Maybe I'm going to school for the wrong career. :lol:


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## billski (Nov 16, 2009)

severine said:


> :lol: To be a weather forecaster....ahhhh. Maybe I'm going to school for the wrong career. :lol:


  It's quite the life.  What other job can  you be wrong 50% of the time and not get fired for it?  :blink:


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## polski (Nov 16, 2009)

billski said:


> It's quite the life.  What other job can  you be wrong 50% of the time and not get fired for it?  :blink:


I honestly think meteorologists get a bum rap. We all know calls more than a few days out are largely a crap shoot, especially for something as dependent on details as skiing. Even shorter term, there are so many variables that can bust a forecast -- sometimes to our advantage (e.g. the expected trace snowfall that turns into 5-6").


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## riverc0il (Nov 17, 2009)

polski said:


> I honestly think meteorologists get a bum rap.


Totally. No one ever makes a big deal when they are right... especially on those 85 degrees and sunny days.


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## severine (Nov 17, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> Totally. No one ever makes a big deal when they are right... especially on those 85 degrees and sunny days.


What I said was purely in jest--I realize their job is not as easy as it seems and it sucks to be the brunt of ill will (I used to work in an Assessor's Office...yeah, I get what it's like to have people think you do nothing and not like what you have to say).


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## severine (Nov 17, 2009)

BTW, checked again:



> Wednesday Night, Nov 25
> Low: 31 °F RealFeel®: 19 °F
> Rain, watch for ice late
> 
> ...


Slightly improved from yesterday, though I don't like the rain predicted for the Wed before Thanksgiving...


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## polski (Nov 17, 2009)

I may be a little overly sensitive to the feelings of workers in hated professions, given that I've been in a couple myself. I also imagine NWS meteorologists must have a fair amount of stress, given that their forecasts can affect businesses and sometimes even be a matter of life or death.

Anyway, to the extent that long-term forecast can be trusted (i.e. pretty much none whatsoever), not looking good heading into Black Friday even well to the north of CT. But the rest of that weekend shows possible promise ... if that doesn't pan out it'll be a little odd if I end up having skied in October but not November, but what can you do.


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## Greg (Nov 17, 2009)

severine said:


> Slightly improved from yesterday, though I don't like the rain predicted for the Wed before Thanksgiving...



Yep. And be careful driving that night and "watch for ice late"... :lol: I love how Accuweather has these little forecast tidbits 8 days out....


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## severine (Nov 17, 2009)

Greg said:


> Yep. And be careful driving that night and "watch for ice late"... :lol: I love how Accuweather has these little forecast tidbits 8 days out....



Hey, I didn't say it was perfect. :lol:  But it's something to focus on that's showing a *hopefully* colder trend coming up soon. Can't believe Thanksgiving is next week already!


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## Greg (Nov 18, 2009)

Still looks better starting around Thanksgiving. We'll have to see if the NWS picks up on this in the next few days. I wouldn't count out an opening in November quite yet.


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## wa-loaf (Nov 18, 2009)

This was posted on that other board (that is not to be named LOL). Sounds pretty good to me:



> Virtually every indice (teleconnection) is coming on board for a period of weather that might be remembered for some time!! The models are stilling trying to figure out the particulars but eventually they'll come around to some kind of agreement (concensus). The ensambles have already latched on to the fact that we're going to see a period of BN (below normal) temps along with AN (above normal) precip ( if it all works out).


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## drjeff (Nov 18, 2009)

Greg said:


> Yep. And be careful driving that night and "watch for ice late"... :lol: I love how Accuweather has these little forecast tidbits 8 days out....



The only potential plus to that is as we all know that day is one of (if not the) busiest travel days and as much warning as possible may cause some folks to think now about leaving earlier/later when they can actually plan for it.  The other 364 days a year, I'd say that a tid bit like that, 8 days out would be a complete BS thing


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## 4aprice (Nov 18, 2009)

wa-loaf said:


> This was posted on that other board (that is not to be named LOL). Sounds pretty good to me:



Its actually from a well respected met who goes by the name Typhoon Tip on Easternuswx.com.  If he's right very promising.  Most models pointing to a good early Dec.   Black Friday may be doubtful but a week after things should get rolling.  

I'd trade a Black Friday for a better back end of the season anyday.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## severine (Nov 18, 2009)

Greg said:


> Still looks better starting around Thanksgiving. We'll have to see if the NWS picks up on this in the next few days. I wouldn't count out an opening in November quite yet.


Rumor has it that Dec 5th will now be opening day...


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## Greg (Nov 18, 2009)

severine said:


> Rumor has it that Dec 5th will now be opening day...



Makes sense and I can live with that......as long as Stinger is nicely bumped up!


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## severine (Nov 22, 2009)

This blows.



> Wednesday, Nov 25
> High: 51 °F RealFeel®: 47 °F
> Mostly cloudy
> 
> ...


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## 2knees (Nov 22, 2009)

severine said:


> This blows.



those temps, at least the highs, are below average for this time of year for ct.


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## severine (Nov 22, 2009)

2knees said:


> those temps, at least the highs, are below average for this time of year for ct.


Bite me.

I want last year's opening season.



What blows is that the temps went up so much (~10 degrees, give or take) in the forecast over the last week. Yeah, I know, it's not something to be relied upon. Still blows.


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## bvibert (Nov 23, 2009)

Unfortunately it doesn't blow at all (snow that is)...


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## severine (Nov 23, 2009)

bvibert said:


> Unfortunately it doesn't blow at all (snow that is)...



Would you prefer "sucks" then?


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## bvibert (Nov 23, 2009)

severine said:


> Would you prefer "sucks" then?



Yes


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## Greg (Nov 28, 2009)

severine said:


> Rumor has it that Dec 5th will now be opening day...



We'll see......Far from optimum snow making this week.


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## bvibert (Nov 28, 2009)

Greg said:


> We'll see......Far from optimum snow making this week.



Not looking good for the 5th at this point.  I think we'll be lucky for the 12th, unfortunately...

Think cold (and Snow!)


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## 2knees (Nov 28, 2009)

definitely not happening this week.  more rain in the shitcast and temps at night above freezing.


WTF!!!!


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## severine (Nov 28, 2009)

About the only snow in CT right now is hockey slush in Simsbury tonight. Boo!


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## The Sneak (Nov 30, 2009)

I don't see any favorable snowmaking weather in the near future for SNE ski areas. :uzi::angry:


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## tarponhead (Nov 30, 2009)

The Sneak said:


> I don't see any favorable snowmaking weather in the near future for SNE ski areas. :uzi::angry:



Catskills look to have marginal (day) to good (night) weather starting this Thursday night.  Hunter / Belleayre still on target for 05-Dec. per their websites.

Got a RU game this Saturday. If it holds, this Sunday will be the first day out


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## Glenn (Nov 30, 2009)

2knees said:


> definitely not happening this week.  more rain in the *shitcast* and temps at night above freezing.
> 
> 
> WTF!!!!



Love it! Going to use that term until the "shitcast" starts calling for cool temps and snow.


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## Greg (Nov 30, 2009)

Things look like they'll improve Friday night. Hopefully.


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## bvibert (Nov 30, 2009)

Greg said:


> Things look like they'll improve Friday night. Hopefully.



Lets hope so!  Looks like a chance of some snow on the tail end of the rain Thursday night into Friday too.  Won't amount to much I don't imagine, but it's a step in the right direction.  I want to see those guns going this weekend!


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## WJenness (Nov 30, 2009)

These extended forecasts have 'looked good' before... It seems the 'good' weather is always just a bit away...

I'll believe it when it gets here..

-w


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## wa-loaf (Nov 30, 2009)

WJenness said:


> These extended forecasts have 'looked good' before... It seems the 'good' weather is always just a bit away...
> 
> I'll believe it when it gets here..
> 
> -w



x2

The race league kick-off party is Dec 10th. It'd be great if WA could be open to get some turns in first. I'm not optimistic. :angry:


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## bvibert (Nov 30, 2009)

WJenness said:


> These extended forecasts have 'looked good' before... It seems the 'good' weather is always just a bit away...
> 
> I'll believe it when it gets here..
> 
> -w



Gotta stay positive, otherwise I'm gonna go nuts!


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## 2knees (Nov 30, 2009)

In addition...we are going to have to watch developing low pressure
off the mid atlantic coast on saturday/saturday night.  Its a long
way off so confidence is low.  It does have the potential to bring
the first snow to portions of southern new england.  We just will
have to wait and see if the low can develop close enough to the
coast to throw back some precipitation into our region.  Would not
be surprised to see an inverted trough setup and help pull the
moisture back into southern new england.  However...its 5 days out
so if the trough is less amplified than advertised the precipitation
could remain out over the ocean.  For now will be including chance
pops and let later shifts take if from there.  It looks like
whatever falls would mainly be snow...or perhaps rain changing so to
snow across the coast.


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