# The Official 2/6 - 2/7 Storm Discussion Thread



## powderfreak (Feb 5, 2008)

This two day period of Tuesday and Wednesday was looking extremely bleak
even 36 hours ago with 40s and periods of heavy rain for both days.  Now,
we've got a general 3-7" along the Green Mountain spine and eastward.  New
Hampshire was really the winner here with more widespread 5-8" in central
New Hampshire.  The situation for tomorrow is pretty tricky, though.

A cold front will slowly sag southward tonight and appears to set up
somewhere in the vicinity of Glens Falls-Rutland-Lebanon-North Conway...or
slightly north of that line.  Snow will fall north of that area with a
possible mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain in and around that line. 
South of there, sleet, freezing rain and rain will be the rule for Wednesday.

Precipitation will come in two waves, a heavy burst of snow should drop an
initial 2-5" late Wednesday morning before tapering off during the
afternoon.  Snow will then redevelop Wednesday evening with an additional
2-3" on Wednesday night.  Total 24hr accumulations by 7am Thursday will be
4-8" at the ski resorts from SB/MRG northward.  South of there, it will get
cold enough to snow on Wednesday night with 2-4" from Killington to Mt. Snow
for Thursday morning.  Here in the Champlain Valley, I'm expecting 3-6" of
total snowfall by Thursday morning.

This snowfall will bring two-day totals to near a foot in many spots and I
suspect the SB-Jay corridor total is somewhere around 10-14".  Of course,
its warmed up a little bit with scattered rain showers this afternoon, but
this denser snow will cover up the ice nicely while building the base.

Another decent snow producer looks pegged for Saturday night and Sunday as a
clipper dives into the Ohio Valley and redevelops off the New England coast.
 Models want to stall this in the Maritimes and if the last three runs of
the GFS are near-correct, we could have a decent widespread clipper snow
event transition to a significant upslope snowstorm late Sunday into Monday.
 The overall synoptic features are falling into place for snow to fall from
Saturday night into Monday in the mountains with potentially heavy
accumulations.  Stay Tuned.

-Scott


----------



## Greg (Feb 5, 2008)

powderfreak said:


> Total 24hr accumulations by 7am Thursday will be
> 4-8" at the ski resorts from SB/MRG northward.  South of there, it will get
> cold enough to snow on Wednesday night with 2-4" from Killington to Mt. Snow
> for Thursday morning.  Here in the Champlain Valley, I'm expecting 3-6" of
> ...



You've made my day.


----------



## powderfreak (Feb 5, 2008)

Greg said:


> You've made my day.



My mood regarding the next week has done a 180.  I was pretty down about the weekend conditions up here as I have family visiting Thursday night through Sunday; we'll be at Stowe on Friday and Saturday.  I was expecting an ugly situation but with a net foot expected by Thursday morning...maybe some snow showers Friday...and then I'm pretty excited about the situation on the GFS and Canadian progs for significant mountain snowfall later in the weekend.

I think we might be turning it around here...

-Scott


----------



## Greg (Feb 5, 2008)

powderfreak said:


> I think we might be turning it around here...



Sweet! This is probably pretty academic for you Scott, but this is a neat site that charts out the precip and type based on various models:

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=VT&stn=KMPV&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec

That's for the Barre area and the GFS and indicates a liquid equivalent of 1.5"+ of mostly snow between now and Friday.  More for the weekend!


----------



## powderfreak (Feb 5, 2008)

Greg said:


> Sweet! This is probably pretty academic for you Scott, but this is a neat site that charts out the precip and type based on various models:
> 
> http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=VT&stn=KMPV&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec
> 
> That's for the Barre area and the GFS and indicates a liquid equivalent of 1.5"+ of mostly snow between now and Friday.  More for the weekend!



Greg...the coolwx site is great for model data.  I've been using it all morning and usually get quite a bit of information off it.  Its also got great temperature profiles and analysis that makes it easy to visualize what's going on in the atmosphere.  The Temperature (Lower) option is great to see what the mountain will be experiencing as our summit levels are usually near between the 875mb-850mb level.  Its easy to gage temps based on that.

Great site and I'd recommend it to anyone interested in this type of stuff.

-Scott


----------



## ajl50 (Feb 5, 2008)

I heart you.


----------



## lerops (Feb 5, 2008)

powderfreak,

what's the source of this report? just asking so I could bookmark it. many weather reports don't specifically mention ski areas, so this look good.


----------



## Greg (Feb 5, 2008)

lerops said:


> powderfreak,
> 
> what's the source of this report? just asking so I could bookmark it. many weather reports don't specifically mention ski areas, so this look good.



Scott typically posts his own reports based on model data and experience with trends on how things usually develop at and around various NNE ski areas. So I guess I'm saying bookmark this forum...


----------



## WJenness (Feb 5, 2008)

:grin::grin::grin:

That's all I have to say about that.

-w


----------



## WJenness (Feb 5, 2008)

powderfreak said:


> This two day period of Tuesday and Wednesday was looking extremely bleak
> even 36 hours ago with 40s and periods of heavy rain for both days.  Now,
> we've got a general 3-7" along the Green Mountain spine and eastward.  New
> Hampshire was really the winner here with more widespread 5-8" in central
> ...



If I can bug you... How does the snow / sleet / NCP line look for Lincoln, NH (Loon specifically). Girlfriend and I are going there on Saturday, and I'm wondering if I should make sure my edges are nice and sharp...

-w


----------



## powderfreak (Feb 5, 2008)

WJenness said:


> If I can bug you... How does the snow / sleet / NCP line look for Lincoln, NH (Loon specifically). Girlfriend and I are going there on Saturday, and I'm wondering if I should make sure my edges are nice and sharp...
> 
> -w



I'd imagine Loon was close to the bullseye with this morning's snow in NH.  I think they see snow possibly mixed with sleet at times tomorrow before changing to all snow.  I'd include them in the 4-8" group.  Should be a good weekend in a lot of central/northern areas.


----------



## WJenness (Feb 5, 2008)

powderfreak said:


> I'd imagine Loon was close to the bullseye with this morning's snow in NH.  I think they see snow possibly mixed with sleet at times tomorrow before changing to all snow.  I'd include them in the 4-8" group.  Should be a good weekend in a lot of central/northern areas.



In short...

w00t.

Thank you.

They were reporting 6.5" of fresh this morning...

-w


----------



## lerops (Feb 5, 2008)

Greg said:


> Scott typically posts his own reports based on model data and experience with trends on how things usually develop at and around various NNE ski areas. So I guess I'm saying bookmark this forum...


Thanks, much better then!

Scott, thanks for the report.


----------



## billski (Feb 5, 2008)

wahoo.  best news since I won megabucks.  well, I didn't win, but it's still the best news...


----------



## Johnskiismore (Feb 5, 2008)

Loon today had a healthy six inches of snow from last night.  When I got up this morning I was really expecting 1-3 inches, what a surprise!  Now, at about noon it did start to rain lighly, but I mean lightly, for most of the afternoon it was hardly noticable.  North Peak was socked in some fog, but today was a lot of fun to be out!

I'll do a few runs before work tomorrow!


----------



## riverc0il (Feb 5, 2008)

I couldn't believe what happened outside when I woke up. A bomb hit the area that no one was expecting. Several inches of snow before the change over, perhaps five inches total here in Ashland, then the mix, with a bit of rain. No one expected it. University closed all day, lots of kids at home from the schools. Streets were a mess this morning. Sweet!!!

Thanks for the update, powderfreak. Keep us posted on the potential for Monday. I got three weeks of vacation time to burn and this Monday might start my mid-week skiing in earnest for this season. Couple of inches probably won't be worth it, but if we are going to get 8"+ of powder going into Monday, work can certainly wait for Tuesday.


----------



## Greg (Feb 5, 2008)

*Winter Weather Advisory: Northern Vermont*



> URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
> 434 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008
> 
> ...


----------



## davidhowland14 (Feb 5, 2008)

Ragged opened Ravine trails today. I'd imagine, with the danbury forecast for the next 10 days (snow almost every day), if they get spear open, that mountain will kick ass when I get up there. This winter is setting up to be an excellent one.


----------



## danny p (Feb 6, 2008)

man, weather can change at the drop of a dime.  weather forecast for this week comletely sucked 3 days ago and now its snow in the forecast for the next 7 days @ K.  totally stoked!


----------



## KingM (Feb 6, 2008)

School was canceled yesterday and several more inches to shovel this morning. Wow, how did they miss this so badly? At one point it looked like a disaster. Here is what the weather forecast is:

# Today: Periods of snow. Some mixed winter precipitation possible. High 31F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.
# Tonight: Snow likely. Some sleet may mix in. Low 22F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph. Snow accumulating 4 to 6 inches.
# Tomorrow: Cloudy with snow. High 26F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70%. Snow accumulating 2 to 4 inches.
# Tomorrow night: Intermittent snow showers, especially early. Low 16F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 40%.
# Friday: A few snow showers. Highs in the low 30s and lows in the low 20s.
# Saturday: Snow showers possible. Highs in the low 30s and lows in the low 20s.


----------



## powderfreak (Feb 6, 2008)

NWS has issued Winter Storm Warnings for counties generally south of I-89 for 6-12" of snow.  Advisories continue for the north for 4-8" of snow.  

The two part system has already begun with pretty decent snowfall coming out of the sky here in Burlington this morning.  We'll have a 4-5 hour snowfall this morning which will generally end completely by noon.  Then we'll just see scattered flurries or snow showers between noon and 7pm.  Part two arrives this evening and its snowing again by 10pm across the region.  Snow could fall heavily early on in the night before tapering to a steady, light snow after midnight.  Model progs then want a light snow to persist through Thursday morning.

QPF has looked decent with over a half an inch at the Canadian border, up to an inch at BTV and an inch and a half to our south.  It won't snow the whole time but we've got a good thing going over the next 24 hours.  I'll be staying with 4-8" as a forecast for north of I-89 but based on model QPF and situation that has unfolded with mainly snow from the beginning, I do think areas between Killington and I-89 will net the highest snowfall of 8-14".  This is a pretty substantial increase this late in the game but think this storm drops at least a foot in the SB/MRG area...that's for you, Greg  

Having not seen it snow like it means business in Burlington in some time, this morning its nice to wake up to.  Long live winter!

-Scott


----------



## billski (Feb 6, 2008)

Dangum it Scott, that's a whipper-snapper's dream.  

Danny, can you start dropping quarters instead of dimes?  We'd probably get more snow.  

I smell Ullr sacrifice smoke...

OK, Friday is now blocked on my calendar (Thursday won't work for me... so you'll get the goods...)


----------



## highpeaksdrifter (Feb 6, 2008)

*Snowing in the North Country*

Some places in the ADKs and Northern Greens could get 12+ over the next couple of days. With cold air working South everybody should get something out of it. It's about time.Here's hoping the cold air stays around for awhile.


----------



## reefer (Feb 6, 2008)

*Sweet!*

Holy Shit! It looks like it's dumping up there! I wish I could leave right now. Thanks for the updates KingM & Powderfreak! Everyone stayed positive and whola!
Pouring in Framingham, MA. The perfect storm for me anyway. Dump up north, don't have to lift a shovel!
Sucks I can't get out of work the next couple days. Have to get out there early Saturday somewhere!
Maybe Southern Vermont will luck out in the next round tonight!


----------



## smootharc (Feb 6, 2008)

*I'll second that....*

....as it's been a freakin' NCP blizzard here in CNY.  Ugly....


----------



## billski (Feb 6, 2008)

*this picture on i89 vt...*

makes my whole day... (while it strikes terror in the minds of the 293 million other Americans...)


----------



## SKIQUATTRO (Feb 6, 2008)

that is a beautiful sight....absolutly beautiful!


----------



## SKIQUATTRO (Feb 6, 2008)

sweet!!!  if there is a positive forecast for Sunday/Monday up at K, we'll be staying over Sunday night!  Kids will be in CT with the grandparents...alls good!


----------



## tjf67 (Feb 6, 2008)

We have 4 inches in LP at 8:45.  They called for 4 to 6 by thursday night.  They got this one wrong I feel a 20 incher by thursday night.  Going out this afternoon with the fatties and be there in the morning if this keeps up.


----------



## Greg (Feb 6, 2008)

powderfreak said:


> I do think areas between Killington and I-89 will net the highest snowfall of 8-14".  This is a pretty substantial increase this late in the game but think this storm drops at least a foot in the SB/MRG area...that's for you, Greg



He he he...


----------



## billski (Feb 6, 2008)

tjf67 said:


> We have 4 inches in LP at 8:45.  They called for 4 to 6 by thursday night.  They got this one wrong I feel a 20 incher by thursday night.  Going out this afternoon with the fatties and be there in the morning if this keeps up.



take some pics!


----------



## billski (Feb 6, 2008)

*my favorite words...*

Norm's Weather, Waitsfield, Vermont (PWS)
         Updated: 27 sec ago



*28.0* °F   /   *-2.2* °C 
         Heavy Snow


MRG is as happy as we are!

Updated on *Wednesday, February 6, 2008* at *08:45:00*​*6" on the ground already this morning, and more expected today on top of the 4-6"yesterday and we had us a nice little POWDER DAY TODAY!*  The new moist snow coupled with a gradual cool down from yesterday's warm temps will have Gen. Stark Mtn. skiing very, very  nicely today. After days of scary weather forecasts we have dodged the bullet and now we hear another 4-8" or maybe more is on tap for tomorrow while another storm winds up for a potential weekend hit. . Let's hope they are right this time, because if they are we are in store for the best skiing since December!


----------



## Warp Daddy (Feb 6, 2008)

we had snow last nite and its snowing fairly well now here on St Lawrence River too . Several school delays etc


----------



## nelsapbm (Feb 6, 2008)

Well....once again Scott is right and the local TV meteorologists were wrong....somehow the forcast turned from 1-3" to 6-12" over night while Scott called for it yesterday. Probably about 4" on the ground at my house a little south of town this AM. 
It's currently dumping in Burlington....roads are a mess. Accidents everywhere. You can definately tell who the folks are who don't have proper winter tires on their vehicles.


----------



## SKIQUATTRO (Feb 6, 2008)

my parents are on alert that they may be keeping the kids and extra day!!


----------



## thetrailboss (Feb 6, 2008)

It's dumping in Central Vermont near Sugarbush...we've already gotten 6 inches and the forecast was for 4-6 inches.  I guess they were a bit wrong....


----------



## Greg (Feb 6, 2008)

*Say, what?*


----------



## billski (Feb 6, 2008)

*To: ULLR - Subject: URGENT*

Ullr, keep this one heading at us!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0607 AM CST WED FEB 06 2008

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA...NORTHERN IL...SOUTHERN WI

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 061207Z - 061800Z

   A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL EFFECT EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS
   /INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA/...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
   MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
   HOUR WILL OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS.

   MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF
   THIS CLASSIC SET-UP FOR A MAJOR SNOWFALL EVENT IN THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION.


----------



## billski (Feb 6, 2008)

Greg said:


>



sweet.  now I'm just waiting for those percents to crank up to 100!  
I have the feeling I may not be on this forum for a few days or more....


----------



## midd (Feb 6, 2008)

any reports from the N. Conway neck of the woods?

how much?  Attitash says 6" in the narrative of their report, but 2" in the chart


----------



## billski (Feb 6, 2008)

midd said:


> any reports from the N. Conway neck of the woods?
> 
> how much?  Attitash says 6" in the narrative of their report, but 2" in the chart



NWS say 7-15" for mt. washington valley by Thursday AM.
Wildcat reports 6" as of 11:30am

I'll be back in the woods soon!


----------



## jaywbigred (Feb 6, 2008)

Oh man. Excited for this weekend. This thread gave me chills. Let it DUMP!


----------



## ckofer (Feb 6, 2008)

*Cannon tomorrow. 'Nuf said.*


----------



## twinplanx (Feb 6, 2008)

*'Dacks*

Any info on the southern? ADK's  specifically Gore? just jumped on board for this weekend after studying the recent weather threads. still hard to believe when it as around 60dgrs down here today


----------



## Greg (Feb 6, 2008)

*Round 2*

Round 2:


----------



## ckofer (Feb 6, 2008)

*That's a serious streak of blue! *



Greg said:


> Round 2:


----------



## Zand (Feb 6, 2008)

Pretty good thunderstorm here with a temp of 29 and heavy (freezing apparently) rain. Once in a while I see a few flakes but it's pouring like a bastard right now.


----------



## deadheadskier (Feb 6, 2008)

Started snowing moderately here in portland at 9:30.


----------



## Masskier (Feb 6, 2008)

Burke got 6" earlier today,  another 4 tonight and its still comming down at a good rate.


----------



## ALLSKIING (Feb 7, 2008)

Just got up to K and its duming like crazy!!!


----------



## ALLSKIING (Feb 7, 2008)

ALLSKIING said:


> Just got up to K and its duming like crazy!!!



I would say around 10 inches+ from the storm at K. Wet snow but its going to be sweet!!


----------



## nelsapbm (Feb 7, 2008)

15" at my house! Wow. Not expecting that.  
Mad River is reporting 12" overnight on top of the 10" they got yesterday. This weekend is going to be sweet. To bad I won't be able to ski! Oh well.


----------



## noski (Feb 7, 2008)

ALLSKIING said:


> I would say around 10 inches+ from the storm at K. Wet snow but its going to be sweet!!


 The snow we got in the MRV last night (12") was dry and fluffy :beer:


----------



## Greg (Feb 7, 2008)

Greg said:


> Round 2:



Holy crap. Looks like another round starting to fill in!


----------



## Greg (Feb 7, 2008)

Josh Fox calling for up to 2 feet at MRG from this storm by the end of today:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2008/02/storm-totals-could-reach-as-high-as-16.html


----------



## tjf67 (Feb 7, 2008)

We had ten at Whiteface when i got there yesterday.   Shoveled this morning about another 12 to 15 on top of that.  Hopefully we will suck in a little lake effect today and get it up to 20.


----------



## SKIQUATTRO (Feb 7, 2008)

again....why do i live on Long Island??


----------



## thetrailboss (Feb 7, 2008)

FWIW we got 6" of snow east of the Sugarbush/Stowe area yesterday and another 6" last night...the snow is a bit wet, but that's great because it is sticking to the base that we have.  More snow is on the way as well!  :beer:


----------



## tjf67 (Feb 7, 2008)

Just got a call from my buddied that are on the hill.  They said there is 16 inches of fresh light blanket on the hill this morning.


----------



## Greg (Feb 7, 2008)

tjf67 said:


> Just got a call from my buddied that are on the hill.  They said there is 16 inches of fresh light blanket on the hill this morning.



Glad you guys scored big on this one too. Sandy C from ORDA is reporting 26” in the last 3 days. Crazy!


----------



## danny p (Feb 7, 2008)

dumping at K on the k1 webcam....gonna be hard to work today!

http://www.killington.com/winter/mountain/k1_webcam/index.html


----------



## Greg (Feb 7, 2008)

danny p said:


> dumping at K on the k1 webcam....gonna be hard to work today!
> 
> http://www.killington.com/winter/mountain/k1_webcam/index.html



Looks to still be dumping at Ground Zero too:

http://www.madriverglen.com/?Page=cams.html


----------



## Warp Daddy (Feb 7, 2008)

Just plowed a foot in  driveway just now and still coming down here on St Lawrence R---Yeah Baby !!


----------



## danny p (Feb 7, 2008)

Greg said:


> Looks to still be dumping at Ground Zero too:
> 
> http://www.madriverglen.com/?Page=cams.html




very nice, even though I'm not allowed to slide on that snow! :razz:


----------



## WJenness (Feb 7, 2008)

danny p said:


> very nice, even though I'm not allowed to slide on that snow! :razz:



Of course you're allowed to slide on it...

You've got a couple options... hike or wear two planks on your feet and ride the lift...

-w


----------



## Greg (Feb 7, 2008)

danny p said:


> very nice, even though I'm not allowed to slide on that snow! :razz:



Sure you are. Just not on your snowboard....

Sorry. Sorry. Sorry.  I couldn't resist. :razz:


----------



## danny p (Feb 7, 2008)

i figured i was gonna get scolded for mentioning a "hot-button, highly-likely thread hijack" topic.


----------



## Greg (Feb 7, 2008)

danny p said:


> i figured i was gonna get scolded for mentioning a "hot-button, highly-likely thread hijack" topic.



As long as dmc doesn't check this thread, we're safe.


----------



## danny p (Feb 7, 2008)

funny how those jokes aren't as offensive/frusturating when we are getting good snow, in comparison to when we are in a thaw and it leads to :angry:


----------



## Johnskiismore (Feb 7, 2008)

Measured eight inches this morning!  This is very nice, six on Tuesday, three on Wednesday, and eight today!  Seventeen inches in three days, and originally the forecast was to be rain!


----------



## KingM (Feb 7, 2008)

Still coming down. SB is saying 17 inches in the last 24 hours and of course there's more on the way.


----------



## riverc0il (Feb 7, 2008)

Vacation day tomorrow, game on at the Glen!!


----------



## Zand (Feb 7, 2008)

This looked kinda funny on today's climo for Worcester:

WEATHER CONDITIONS
 THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
  THUNDERSTORM
  FREEZING RAIN
  LT FREEZING RAIN
  LIGHT SNOW
  FOG

How many times do you get all of those in one day?


----------

