# Storm Speculation Thread Jan 25-26 2013



## hammer (Jan 22, 2013)

From the NWS discussion for NH:



> FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
> AS MENTIONED ABOVE WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE POTENTIAL STORM. PTYPE ALL SNOW BUT STILL COULD CHANGE IF STRONGER STORM TRACKS CLOSER TO SNE. TIMING OF SNOW MAY NOT BE UNTIL LATE FRI WITH BRUNT OF STORM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE A MODERATE SNOW EVENT BUT THIS CAN STILL CHANGE WITH MORE OR LESS SNOW AS WE ARE STILL MORE THAN 3 DAYS AWAY.



At least a moderate snow event...promising.  I'll be in FL this weekend taking care of family business so my main concern is getting out Friday morning, which so far looks OK.


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## Puck it (Jan 22, 2013)

nothing north though.


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## mlctvt (Jan 22, 2013)

It could trend north over the next few days. At least that's the consensus on the weather forums. Let's hope...


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## drjeff (Jan 22, 2013)

Tons of variable to solve with this low pressure system right now!  Literally today, it's off the Northern British Columbia Coast just a bit south of the start of the Aleutian Islands!  It should get picked up my the STRONG polar jetstream, taken a bit North and East into Northern BC, before it starts a run out of the Northern Canadian Rockies, into the high plains of the Midwest and then if the models hold, somewhere near the Middle Atlantic before turning North and hopefully pummeling us with snow!  Just a few variables and 5,000 miles or so of storm traveling before it might arrive in about 90 hours or so


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## Puck it (Jan 22, 2013)

Most reports are not showing anything of significance for northern resorts from what I see.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2013)

mlctvt said:


> It could trend north over the next few days. At least that's the consensus on the weather forums. Let's hope...



Given the 12z Euro just dragged this thing even further sooth i don't know why they'd think that. The trend has been more and more south.  Now even n. NJ's snow total from this is at risk.  i hope it scoots North too, but the trend isn't our friend.


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## hammer (Jan 22, 2013)

Yup, for now nothing to see here...right now the wonderfully accurate map on accuweather.com puts the snow band below New England ski country:


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 22, 2013)

hammer said:


> Yup, for now nothing to see here...right now the wonderfully accurate map on accuweather.com puts the snow band below New England ski country:
> 
> View attachment 7409




All I'm hoping for is a 50 mile north shift at this point.  Would keep the Pocono snow status quo, and put some snow in the Cats.  At this point there are just so many variables at work all we can do is wait.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 22, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> All I'm hoping for is a 50 mile north shift at this point.  Would keep the Pocono snow status quo, and put some snow in the Cats.  At this point there are just so many variables at work all we can do is wait.



Time for you to check out Elk, it kind like Platty, just a little wider, but not completely as steep, but their expert runs are good.


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## 4aprice (Jan 22, 2013)

Scotty said:


> Time for you to check out Elk, it kind like Platty, just a little wider, but not completely as steep, but their expert runs are good.



Let me start by saying I hope it trends north.  That said the accuweather map shown does not do Elk or Plattekill any favors.  If it happens as the map portrays Camelback and Blue will be the winners.  Don't get to Blue till the following weekend but I would assume they're in good shape.  Camelback will have thier full compliment of trails open this coming weekend and natural snow would just make it better.



Alex


Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Puck it (Jan 22, 2013)

This just sucks.


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## mriceyman (Jan 22, 2013)

ill be at blue sunday... this would be a nice surprise


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## steamboat1 (Jan 23, 2013)

It's gonna rain....


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## hammer (Jan 23, 2013)

> .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...FRIGID AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY CONTROLS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THANK THURSDAY EVEN IN THE NORTH AS THE AIR MASS MODERATES BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH WITH LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH. FRIDAY NIGHT AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMPT A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW CLOSE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THUS HOW MUCH SNOW MIGHT FALL...WITH THE LATEST TREND FARTHER OFFSHORE AND LESS PRECIPITATION. *CURRENTLY HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE JUST ALONG THE COAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER INLAND WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO ONLY 1-3" AT THE MOST.* THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR DEVIATIONS FROM THIS TRACK.



Sorry I jinxed this one...:-(

Guess I'd rather have little to nothing instead of NCP.  At least the groomers should stay in decent shape with the cold weather.


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## j law (Jan 23, 2013)

I've never been to Blue but this might be my first time. I haven't skied in the east this year and I need to get my legs in shape.

Though it looks like they only have 28 of 39 trails open.  Anyone know if their expert terrain is open?  I couldn’t tell by looking at their website.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2013)

Looks like (yet) another storm that's going to slip away to the south.  I'm beginning to feel like Charlie Brown.


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## mriceyman (Jan 23, 2013)

j law said:


> I've never been to Blue but this might be my first time. I haven't skied in the east this year and I need to get my legs in shape.
> 
> Though it looks like they only have 28 of 39 trails open.  Anyone know if their expert terrain is open?  I couldn’t tell by looking at their website.


they will have it fully open for the weekend. i think they closed trails today because of snowmaking.


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## JDMRoma (Jan 23, 2013)

Well that Totally Sucks for New Hampshire this weekend........oh if only I was in Steamboat again !


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 23, 2013)

Seriously, is it going to rain next week (29th-30th)?


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## WinnChill (Jan 23, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> Seriously, is it going to rain next week (29th-30th)?



A brief warmup is possible through midweek with some light mixed showers but we should be back into the freezer again later next week.


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## gmcunni (Jan 23, 2013)

boo


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## ScottySkis (Jan 23, 2013)

gmcunni said:


> boo



Waste.


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## St. Bear (Jan 23, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> A brief warmup is possible through midweek with some light mixed showers but we should be back into the freezer again later next week.


But it doesn't snow in the freezer.

First it was supposed to be snowy at the end of Jan.  Now I'm hearing beginning of Feb.
I wasn't able to take advantage of the snow in Dec, so this winter so far is just about the same as last for me.


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## sull1102 (Jan 23, 2013)

As of now I know the current operators barely wanted to run the place this year. Half the upper management left for New Jesrsey after last year . I know their decision wad on hold until after this year.


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## WinnChill (Jan 23, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> But it doesn't snow in the freezer.
> 
> First it was supposed to be snowy at the end of Jan.  Now I'm hearing beginning of Feb.
> I wasn't able to take advantage of the snow in Dec, so this winter so far is just about the same as last for me.



I know it's frustrating to have the cold and not the snow.  We weren't really expecting it to be that snowy this time around--just cold.  But the transition to Feb looks slightly more favorable for some snowy events.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> *First it was supposed to be snowy at the end of Jan.  Now I'm hearing beginning of Feb.*
> I wasn't able to take advantage of the snow in Dec, so this winter so far is just about the same as last for me.



If they keep saying the same thing, eventually, they'll be right.  Broken clock hypothesis.


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## RIwx (Jan 23, 2013)

Here's an accumulation map for the storm: 
http://rightweather.net/2013/01/first-look-accumulation-map-friday-night/


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## WinnChill (Jan 24, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> If they keep saying the same thing, eventually, they'll be right.  Broken clock hypothesis.



Yep, you're onto us now.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 24, 2013)

WinnChill said:


> Yep, you're onto us now.



I know your a great forecaster, you told me about the rain snow line and exact time it would change snow to rain on my vacation in NH couple years ago, so I realize how much of a PITA it is to predict weather in North east. You see any lake effect for Roxbury, NY?


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## WinnChill (Jan 24, 2013)

Scotty said:


> I know your a great forecaster, you told me about the rain snow line and exact time it would change snow to rain on my vacation in NH couple years ago, so I realize how much of a PITA it is to predict weather in North east. You see any lake effect for Roxbury, NY?



Thanks Scotty--I must've been throwing my lucky dart that day.  Lake effect snow showers look confined to western resorts today (Brantling/Powder Mills, etc)--not enough to stretch to Roxbury.  You have a better shot at some light snow Friday--not much though...dusting to an inch or so?


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## bdfreetuna (Jan 24, 2013)

I'm chasing the man-made storms this weekend.

Sucks.. natural snow is so much better even when it's frosty, but if it's not even open it's kind of hard to ski.

The higher the trail maintenance to skier traffic ratio over the last week, the better.

I am thinking Jiminy as they have been constantly resurfacing and can blow snow constantly on their relatively smaller terrain, are 90% open, groom aggressively and have got as much snow as anyone else (none).

It's hard to get out there with the same early season motivation.. now that it's mid season and just as icy.. and the flu had me down for the last couple weekends so I missed out on the couple days of "spring skiing". Gotta ski regardless and get back in the game.

Just need to remind myself a day skiing on skied off ice rinks is better than a day not on skis.


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## abc (Jan 24, 2013)

I too, am undecided about where to go in situation like this.

In weather like the past few weeks, a resort "constantly resurfacing and can blow snow constantly on their relatively  smaller terrain, are 90% open, groom aggressively and have got as much  snow as anyone else" will have the best snow. 

On the other hand, pretty much the only resorts that can afford to do such aggressive snow making and grooming are those crowd magnet with high skiers counts. 

In my neck of woods, the mountain that has the best snow making and grooming is Hunter, no question about it. It's also the most crowded of all the Catskill mountains.


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## Bene288 (Jan 24, 2013)

I was thinking Belleayre.. Undecided like the rest of you.

BD - a friend of mine went to Jiminy yesterday and said the snow quality was really good. No one blows snow in the Berks like they do.


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## WJenness (Jan 25, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> But it doesn't snow in the freezer.
> 
> First it was supposed to be snowy at the end of Jan.  Now I'm hearing beginning of Feb.
> I wasn't able to take advantage of the snow in Dec, so this winter so far is just about the same as last for me.



Same. I'm beginning to get punchy.


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## Puck it (Jan 25, 2013)

This is at this time is worse for us Cannon skiers then last year.  The glades on the upper mountain were at least skiable at this time last year.  WTF!!!!!


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 25, 2013)

WJenness said:


> Same. I'm beginning to get punchy.



THIS.

I'm usually pretty patient, but I'm starting to get annoyed.


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## skiking4 (Jan 25, 2013)

abc said:


> I too, am undecided about where to go in situation like this.
> 
> In weather like the past few weeks, a resort "constantly resurfacing and can blow snow constantly on their relatively  smaller terrain, are 90% open, groom aggressively and have got as much  snow as anyone else" will have the best snow.
> 
> ...



It's also got a way better lift system and disperses the crowds to many more lifts than Windham does. So I found Windham to have worse crowds, and worse snowmaking, so you will _not_ find me there this weekend.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 25, 2013)

Half inch of snow in Jersey and were going 5 mph, on the highway, this will be a late night.


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## St. Bear (Jan 25, 2013)

Scotty said:


> Half inch of snow in Jersey and were going 5 mph, on the highway, this will be a late night.


Sounds about right.


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## twinplanx (Jan 25, 2013)

Scotty said:


> Half inch of snow in Jersey and were going 5 mph, on the highway, this will be a late night.



OMG buy all the milk & bread lol


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## ScottySkis (Jan 25, 2013)

twinplanx said:


> OMG buy all the milk & bread lol



Just learn how to drive, bus moving now at normal speed. Next event I will take train.


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## St. Bear (Jan 27, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> But it doesn't snow in the freezer.
> 
> First it was supposed to be snowy at the end of Jan.  Now I'm hearing beginning of Feb.
> I wasn't able to take advantage of the snow in Dec, so this winter so far is just about the same as last for me.


Today I saw the first reference to "mid-Feb" for a pattern change.


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