# The Official 12/16 Storm Discussion Thread



## highpeaksdrifter (Dec 12, 2005)

What do all our forum meteorologists think?


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## redalienx11 (Dec 12, 2005)

I've been curious about this too...(but a little hesitant to ask) I don't know about the 18th, but here is what Accuweather is saying about the 15/16...







Article Here....doesn't look terribly promising for New England...but better than nothing.


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## mattchuck2 (Dec 12, 2005)

Yeah, I noticed that coming up too.  I didn't want to be the first one to say anything lest I be accused of jinxing it.  But now that someone else started it, let the hype begin!


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## ctenidae (Dec 13, 2005)

Weather on teh elevator screen (NBC, I think) says snow Thrusday for Boston, Weather Channel said Rain Friday yesterday, says rain/snow on Friday.

Check back in on Monday, I'll be able to give you a better idea of the weather over the weekend.


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## Vortex (Dec 13, 2005)

Ctenidae.  Revisionist history is always the most accurate.  I like your thinking.  I'm hoping what ever happens take place Friday night to make the drive better than last Friday.


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## ctenidae (Dec 13, 2005)

Forget the spoils- to the victor go the history books.

NOAA doesn't seem to expect much for Thur/Fri for the Sunapee area, but there seems to be some discontent with the GFS model:

HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST AND CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON THU. LOW PRES
EMERGES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THU AND MOVES UP THE
COAST. GFS HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK WEST OVER OUR LAND AREAS AGAIN
TONIGHT. THIS WARMER SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE THE PREFERRED
ALTERNATIVE MEANING MOSTLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AND A MIX FOR
THE NORTH. THIS CLOSED SYSTEM REMAINS TO OUR N THROUGH THE WEEKEND
TO KEEP A COOL NW FLOW. MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY GET SNOW SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THAT SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES BACK IN THE MIDWEST TO SETTLE THINGS DOWN FOR
MONDAY.


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## skibum1321 (Dec 13, 2005)

More importantly than southern areas, hopefully northern VT finally gets a big storm. They are hurting so far with all these coastal storms.


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## pepperdawg (Dec 13, 2005)

anti jinx anti jinx anti jinx - things are looking better for end of the week event - anti jinx anti jinx

agreed - to h#ll with these southern storms....although the snow is purty to gape at - beat looking at dead grass.....


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## freeheelwilly (Dec 13, 2005)

There's every reason to be cautiously optimistic at this juncture for a fairly big event on Friday.  This from the Burlington NWS forecast discussion:
INHERITED FCST OF LIKELY POPS DURING FRIDAY STILL APPEAR REASONABLE 
AS AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL SYSTEM PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO REGION. 
UNCERTAINTY STILL ABOUNDS WITH EXACT TRACK OF SYSTEM SO PEGGING ANY 
SNOWFALL AMTS AT THIS JUNCTURE PREMATURE AT BEST. MORE CERTAINTY 
EXISTS IN THE FACT THAT EXCELLENT ISENTROPIC LIFT/QG FORCING/MID LVL 
FGEN AND JET DYNAMICS WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA. THUS 
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUM WILL OCCUR W/THIS 
SYSTEM. SYSTEM THEN LIFTS NORTH OF REGION FRIDAY NIGHT W/WIDESPREAD 
SNOWS SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AND REMAINING PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO MORE 
MESOSCALE UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES. MEAN WSW BNDRY LYR FLOW 
COMBINED W/AMPLE MOISTURE AND 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE -10 TO -15C RANGE 
SUPPORTS PRIOR THINKING THAT WIDESPREAD LK ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SHSN 
WILL CONTINUE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING 
WEEKEND...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUM LIKELY ACROSS DACKS/NRN GREENS.
&&

And HPD:  What's this 12/18 thing?  Friday is the 16th.  Do you know of a Sunday storm?


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## Greg (Dec 13, 2005)

freeheelwilly said:
			
		

> And HPD:  What's this 12/18 thing?  Friday is the 16th.  Do you know of a Sunday storm?


Yeah. I changed the title. The NOAA forecast is improving for Jiminy:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=01237

It was indicating some rain yesterday, now mostly sleet and freezing rain. Maybe elevation will help keep it white?


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## freeheelwilly (Dec 13, 2005)

Up here, if we get it, it's gonna be *all* white.  Special Weather Statement from Burlington:

...*SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY...*

THOUGH STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...*CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY*. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
GULF COAST REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THURSDAY...AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FIRM AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY...ENSURING THAT AMPLE COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...AND THAT MOST IF NOT ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT THIS TIME...IT
IS PREMATURE TO PREDICT EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL...BUT SEVERAL INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY EVENING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER EVENT.

$$

JMG


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## mattchuck2 (Dec 13, 2005)

CH-CHING!!!!! I will try to hold back my excitement, but "SEVERAL INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY EVENING" sounds pretty damn nice.


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## Marc (Dec 13, 2005)

I was just talking about this storm to people here at work.

Man does it get them pizzed to see how excited I am for the upcoming snow.

They must be jealous of my skiing trips... or my devilishly good looks and wit.  One of the two for sure.


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## freeheelwilly (Dec 13, 2005)

Living in the North East and complaining about snow :roll: .  I just don't get that.  Why not complain about gravity or magnetism while you're at it.


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## Marc (Dec 13, 2005)

freeheelwilly said:
			
		

> Living in the North East and complaining about snow :roll: .  I just don't get that.  Why not complain about gravity or magnetism while you're at it.




Actually, I do complain about gravity quite often when I'm on the slopes.  And it's usually when I'm, ya know, _on_ the slopes, usually head first on my belly.

And I'm shouting "damn you gravity!"   :dunce:


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## ctenidae (Dec 13, 2005)

Magnets really tick me off, what with all their opposites attracting business.


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## skibum1321 (Dec 13, 2005)

Who is complaining about snow?

If you were talking about me I just said that I want it in the mountains. If we get it here too then that's a bonus.


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## VB (Dec 13, 2005)

I know someone who absolutly hates snow, and she loves the pouring rain, every storm we get she gets pissed when it's snow.


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## mattchuck2 (Dec 14, 2005)

wunderground.com calls for "heavy snow accumulation" in Wilmington, "moderate snow accumulation" in North Creek.  Might be a Whiteface day.  All the maps looks like Whiteface, Jay, Stowe, etc. will get pounded.


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## noski (Dec 14, 2005)

*MRV area*

Roger Hill is calling for 5-10+ in north central VT to begin early Friday morning if all things stay on track....


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## Greg (Dec 14, 2005)

Still looks like a mix for the Berks, but the forecast is still better than it was a few days ago with a high of only 32 on Friday. Hopefully, it will stay predominently frozen...


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## freeheelwilly (Dec 14, 2005)

mattchuck2 said:
			
		

> wunderground.com calls for "heavy snow accumulation" in Wilmington, "moderate snow accumulation" in North Creek.  Might be a Whiteface day.




*That* I agree with.



> All the maps looks like Whiteface, Jay, Stowe, etc. will get pounded.



Whiteface perhaps but the rest..??  Not so sure at this point.

This is the latest outta the NWS Burlington Office:

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND BE AROUND NEW JERSEY EARLY 
FRIDAY...AND THEN NEAR BOSTON EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE NAM MODEL 
LOOKS A BIT TOO FAR WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY. GFS 
MODEL NOW FURTHER EAST THAN NAM MODEL...AND TAKES LOW OVER BOSTON BY 
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE GFS MODEL TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE 
EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF). THIS FURTHER EASTWARD TRACK CLOSER TO THE 
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ALL THE DENSE COLD 
AIR OVER THE REGION. THE EUROPEAN MODEL 24 HOURS AGO ALSO HAD THIS 
SAME EASTERN TRACK. THUS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS MODEL FOR THIS 
FORECAST WHICH MEANS COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IN 
THE FORM OF SNOW. *LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ON 
FRIDAY WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE ADIRONDACKS 
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MODELS SHOW THAT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF 
VERMONT WILL BE SHADOWED BY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NEW 
HAMPSHIRE...WITH LESSER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE.* SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE 
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. PER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING 
OFFICES...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME...SINCE 
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNTIL LATE IN THE FOURTH PERIOD...AND 
MOSTLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY (FIFTH PERIOD). WILL UPDATE THE 
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON THIS UPCOMING STORM.


Now, we're at least 24-36 hours away from this thing gettin' cranked up and as we all (should) know by now, the exact track of these things is notoriously difficult to forecast but *as of this particular point in time*, Whiteface looks like the winner, at least as far as the NWS Burlington office is concerned.  FWIW. :beer:


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## Marc (Dec 14, 2005)

Blech, sleet and freezing rain for around here...

I'm probably gonna spend my Friday night blocking the road for mofo power lines.  Super.


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## salida (Dec 14, 2005)

I think Maine (sugarloaf/sunday river) and possibly wildcat will be winners in this one...


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## ALLSKIING (Dec 14, 2005)

I like this pic for Catamount on Tue.
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/weeklyplannerusnational/usnationalweatherfriday_large.html


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## Tin Woodsman (Dec 14, 2005)

salida said:
			
		

> I think Maine (sugarloaf/sunday river) and possibly wildcat will be winners in this one...



Nah - too far to the East me thinks.  Lots of warm air at the mid levels there.  Whiteface and perhaps Jay will do best here, IMHO.


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## freeheelwilly (Dec 14, 2005)

Latest exerpt from NWS Burlington Office:

STILL EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACT AMOUNTS OF SNOW/SLEET... 
PARTICULARLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR MIXED 
PRECIPITATION/ZR. *BEST GUESS NOW WOULD BE 6-12" FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE 
VALLEY AND NRN ADIRONDACKS*. 4-8" ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 
MOST OF VT...EXCEPT LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE CT/PASSUMPSIC RIVER VALLEY 
WHERE SOME ICE ACCUMULATION IS ALSO FORECAST.


Don't walk RUN to Whiteface this weekend  (Actually just kidding.  Stay home.  I'm sure it'll miss us and the skiing will suck)


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## Zand (Dec 14, 2005)

It doesn't look like we'll get much snow over here, but I think everythting will stay frozen. Freezing rain turns into nice snow when groomed. As long as the NCP stays to the east (like everyone except the Weather Channel, who is always WRONG, says) I'll be happy. Looks like another school cancellation on Friday too.


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## awf170 (Dec 14, 2005)

Tin Woodsman said:
			
		

> salida said:
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No, it will defiantly be Cannon, and remember me going friday has nothing to do with this opinion :wink:


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## salida (Dec 14, 2005)

Vermont is going to dry slot, Maine might be warm... depends, either White Mountains which will shadow vermont, or Maine, I still feel good about Maine.

Cannon will undoubtedly do well out of this storm.  Maybe they can start opening things up, or better yet, leave them roped off, it wouldn't bother me!


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## awf170 (Dec 14, 2005)

salida said:
			
		

> Cannon will undoubtedly do well out of this storm.  Maybe they can start opening things up, or better yet, leave them roped off, it wouldn't bother me!



I want them to open the lifts just not the trails :wink: Avalance, paulies, and zoomer laps would be sick if zoomer chair was running for just garys to be open.  I doubt it will happen so I will be doing a whole lot of hiking(it should be a whole lot of skinning but my freerides didnt come yet  )


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## bigbog (Dec 15, 2005)

*..........*



			
				freeheelwilly said:
			
		

> Living in the North East and complaining about snow :roll: .  I just don't get that.  Why not complain about gravity or magnetism while you're at it.


 Ditto!....C'mon guys, what's the interest in Boston forecasts??  Granted, I love the seashore, but the hills are up north...the temps are steady up here this season!....snow being blown every night... 8)


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## ALLSKIING (Dec 15, 2005)

Looks more like an ice storm now. Hope it stays all snow in the higher elevations.


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## freeheelwilly (Dec 15, 2005)

ALLSKIING said:
			
		

> Looks more like an ice storm now. Hope it stays all snow in the higher elevations.



Not here.  Callin' for 6-12" at Whiteface.   :beer:


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## salida (Dec 15, 2005)

Na, the mountains are still safe, snow all the way 6-12 for most places would be a good guess, maybe more in the franconias and wildcats


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## Marc (Dec 15, 2005)

salida said:
			
		

> Na, the mountains are still safe, snow all the way 6-12 for most places would be a good guess, maybe more in the franconias and wildcats



Man, I hope so, would make for a good day for me at Attitash on Saturday...


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## SKIQUATTRO (Dec 15, 2005)

Family obligations will be keeping me home all weekend...please make some turns for me....


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## VB (Dec 15, 2005)

would make great skiing on Saterday at whaleback hopefully, Ill be skiing and snowboarding(for the first time).


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## dmc (Dec 15, 2005)




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## awf170 (Dec 15, 2005)

Marc said:
			
		

> salida said:
> 
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Salida you better be right about cannon, zoomer chair is opening tomorrow  laps on the front face will be awsome.  There will probably be more of the base of my ski left on the trail then on my skis but it will fun. :lol:


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## SKIQUATTRO (Dec 15, 2005)

I need to move, get off this Island and get into the mountains.....aaarrrgggghhhhh


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## SkiDog (Dec 15, 2005)

SKIQUATTRO said:
			
		

> I need to move, get off this Island and get into the mountains.....aaarrrgggghhhhh



you and me both...im meeting relators over the holidays up north...I cant take it anymore...

M


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## redalienx11 (Dec 15, 2005)

FYI Exit 18 off the thruway (~1.5 hours from Hunter, Belleayre, Windham etc.)

Snow for about 1/2 hour...no significant accumulation. Just changed over to rain / freezing rain. Icing up the  road nicely.

Lets hope higher elevations do better.


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## Zand (Dec 15, 2005)

The radar shows snow over us here, but it's obvious it's all virga and it probably won't start for another hour or two. They're calling for 3-6" before a changeover to freezing rain and about 1/2" of ice. 

I'll be at Wachusett tomorrow night.


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## mattchuck2 (Dec 16, 2005)

9:30 @ Albany:

Hard Freezing Rain about 20 minutes ago . . . Hopefully it will be snow up north.  Looks like a fast moving storm.  Already stopped in NYC according to the Very Last Howard Stern Free Radio Show.


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## ALLSKIING (Dec 16, 2005)

Killington said they got 8 inches..but I am sure thats at the top.


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## VB (Dec 16, 2005)

Hope Whalebacks just getting snow rigt now, we have hail, snow and sleet where i live.  Guess higher elevations will help though, still Whalebacks only 300 elevation, i belive.


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## RISkier (Dec 16, 2005)

Anyone know what roads like I90 through Mass and then I91 up into VT are like?  We were planning on driving up that way this afternoon.


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## thetrailboss (Dec 16, 2005)

Roads here in VT are not good.  Snow covered due to the threat of icing.  Take it easy out there.


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## frozencorn (Dec 16, 2005)

Anyone know what 93 N > 16 N looks like? Not driving up until late tonight, round 10, which should help.


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## Greg (Dec 16, 2005)

Seems like there was more freezing rain/rain than predicted. Anyone know how the Northern Berks, southern Green fared? Radar is showing rain as far North as Southern VT/NH.... :angry:


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## KingM (Dec 16, 2005)

We didn't get any rain or even sleet to speak of where I live in the Mad River Valley. There were about 5" when I shoveled at 7:00 and at least 5" since then. It's still coming down hard enough that I could have easily started shoveling again at the beginning when I finished my second pass about twenty minutes ago. I'd be surprised if we ended up with less than a foot even if it started winding down now, which it's not.


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## skibum1321 (Dec 16, 2005)

KingM said:
			
		

> We didn't get any rain or even sleet to speak of where I live in the Mad River Valley. There were about 5" when I shoveled at 7:00 and at least 5" since then. It's still coming down hard enough that I could have easily started shoveling again at the beginning when I finished my second pass about twenty minutes ago. I'd be surprised if we ended up with less than a foot even if it started winding down now, which it's not.


Good news. As long as MRV and points north are all snow, I'm happy.


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## Tin Woodsman (Dec 16, 2005)

Wow.  10" new as of 12:30.  That's great news, considering that it continued to snow pretty hard until about 2PM.  Radar indicates it's winding now now, though there are a bunch of snow showers out in PA headed this way.  Hopefully they'll hit early tomorrow AM.


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## KingM (Dec 16, 2005)

Yes, it's done now. 

But my very unscientific guess says we got a foot. :beer:


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## DJAK (Dec 16, 2005)

8-10" at Sunday River as of 3 pm - still snowing.

They just got a new photo gallery from today up.

http://www.sundayriver.com/gallery/showgallery.php?cat=75&thumb=1


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## VB (Dec 16, 2005)

Weve go about 3-5", and its still snowing pretty good.  Hope Enfield gets about a foot though, that would be some major powder skiing for tomarrow on Whaleback!!!


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## awf170 (Dec 16, 2005)

Cannon got about 2 inches before the mix came, so by the time I left(12) there was pretty much a dusting of new snow  :angry: probably one of my worst days ever skiing...


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## skibum1321 (Dec 16, 2005)

awf170 said:
			
		

> Cannon got about 2 inches before the mix came, so by the time I left(12) there was pretty much a dusting of new snow  :angry: probably one of my worst days ever skiing...


Was it one of your worst days because of high expectations or because of truly bad conditions?


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## dmc (Dec 16, 2005)

Hunter was awesome today!!!

A few inches of sloppy fresh... just about every trail open...   Very carveable and fast...


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## Mark_151 (Dec 16, 2005)

skibum1321 said:
			
		

> awf170 said:
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That's what I want to know -- heading there Saturday.


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## awf170 (Dec 16, 2005)

skibum1321 said:
			
		

> awf170 said:
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A mixture of high expectations, never really skiing in horible conditions before, sleet hiting me in the face at 60 mph, no fresh snow, and a little bit of rain mixed in.


and mark tomorrow will probably be okay because they got a couple of inches after a left(but it probably all blew away because it was so windy), but there are defiantly better places to go tomorrow.


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## KingM (Dec 16, 2005)

awf170 said:
			
		

> and mark tomorrow will probably be okay because they got a couple of inches after a left(but it probably all blew away because it was so windy), but there are defiantly better places to go tomorrow.



Like Mad River Glen, which is opening for the season tomorrow.  :wink:


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