# Winter Forecast 2015-2016



## dlague (Jul 15, 2015)

Time to start this up since the forecasts are starting to ramp up in good shape.

Cold & Snowy (Brutal) Severe Season is More than Likely for the North East & Mid East Coast yet Again 

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uswinter-2015-2016-prediction/


The AMO is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. It’s typically defined by Sea Surface Temperatures patters (SST’s) in the North Atlantic. As you can see from the image above, the JAMSTEC model (the primary global source for SST projections) is thinking the waters of the North Atlantic project to be below normal (Colder) for SON201 (September, October and November of 2015). At the same time, it’s pegging SST’s in the Pacific to be WARMER than normal…and that type of set up has typically translated into a cold winter.

http://www.propanebuzz.com/early-clues-for-2015-2016-winter-weather/


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## Puck it (Jul 15, 2015)

Ready!!!!!


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## dlague (Jul 15, 2015)

Puck it said:


> Ready!!!!!




Yup - bring it!


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## ScottySkis (Jul 15, 2015)

No jinkx ing winter please.


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## BenedictGomez (Jul 16, 2015)

dlague said:


> Time to start this up since *the forecasts are starting to ramp up in good shape.*
> 
> Cold & Snowy (Brutal) Severe Season is More than Likely for the North East & Mid East Coast yet Again



Those aren't forecasts.  They're more like, "eye of newt" meets "click-through revenue generation".


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## Not Sure (Jul 16, 2015)

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/united-states-winter-2015-16-forecast.php

A reason for some East Coast stoke?
https://youtu.be/lN66lherM_U


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## catsup948 (Jul 23, 2015)

It would be hard to beat last seasons longivity, but snowfall could be beaten for many locations in northern New England.  I have a feeling the northern greens get crushed with upslope this coming winter.  I don't know why I just feel they are overdue for some monster events.  I also feel this is going to be an elevation driven winter.  No real snow near the coast but tons at elevation.  This is typical of el Nino winters.


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## dlague (Jul 23, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> It would be hard to beat last seasons longivity, but snowfall could be beaten for many locations in northern New England.  I have a feeling the northern greens get crushed with upslope this coming winter.  I don't know why I just feel they are overdue for some monster events.  I also feel this is going to be an elevation driven winter.  No real snow near the coast but tons at elevation.  This is typical of el Nino winters.



I am hoping you are right!


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## yeggous (Jul 24, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> It would be hard to beat last seasons longivity, but snowfall could be beaten for many locations in northern New England.  I have a feeling the northern greens get crushed with upslope this coming winter.  I don't know why I just feel they are overdue for some monster events.  I also feel this is going to be an elevation driven winter.  No real snow near the coast but tons at elevation.  This is typical of el Nino winters.



ENSO has little to no correlation with New England weather.

California has a promising outlook. I am working from our San Francisco office this week and am looking forward to returning this winter. Tahoe, here I come! I'm still trying to figure out an excuse to visit the Salt Lake City office.


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## dlague (Jul 24, 2015)

yeggous said:


> ENSO has little to no correlation with New England weather.
> 
> California has a promising outlook. I am working from our San Francisco office this week and am looking forward to returning this winter. Tahoe, here I come! I'm still trying to figure out an excuse to visit the Salt Lake City office.



Well it does effect the jet stream. according to NOAA.


*Repost*
Well everything suggests that the polar vortex get pushed further east bringing cold to the northeast.  Storm tracks are further south and more tropical.  If those two come together which at best would be somewhere along the east northeast theoretically then large amounts of snow are possible.  However things have to be lined up perfectly which does not always happen as depicted below.


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## marcski (Jul 27, 2015)

http://firsthandweather.com/930/early-2015-16-winter-forecast-a-regional-breakdown/

Northeast Forecast: 

If you’re familiar at all with what a lot of strong El Niño winters  usually look like, you may be wondering why I have this entire region as  being cold with typical snow. As I explained above, the very warm  waters in the northeast Pacific have not dissipated, and even though we  have plenty of time for it to break down from the west, it still could  be there in some form by this winter. These warmer waters do have the  ability to affect the overall long-wave pattern in the U.S., and as we  saw the last two winters, it can create a wavy and amplified jet stream,  pushing Arctic air south into this region. While it’s difficult to say just how cold this region will be at this  point, I do believe that several intrusions of Arctic air are possible.  I don’t expect snowfall to be nearly as high as last year in places  like Boston but decent snowfall totals should occur for many of these  regions. Conditions should be drier overall in the Ohio Valley, but the  amount of snowfall that the area gets this winter is still a bit of a  wildcard. I should have a lot more information in the fall for this  region as there are still some fairly sizable uncertainties.


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## Not Sure (Jul 27, 2015)

marcski said:


> http://firsthandweather.com/930/early-2015-16-winter-forecast-a-regional-breakdown/
> 
> Northeast Forecast:
> 
> If you’re familiar at all with what a lot of strong El Niño winters  usually look like, you may be wondering why I have this entire region as  being cold with typical snow. As I explained above, the very warm  waters in the northeast Pacific have not dissipated, and even though we  have plenty of time for it to break down from the west, it still could  be there in some form by this winter. These warmer waters do have the  ability to affect the overall long-wave pattern in the U.S., and as we  saw the last two winters, it can create a wavy and amplified jet stream,  pushing Arctic air south into this region. While it’s difficult to say just how cold this region will be at this  point, I do believe that several intrusions of Arctic air are possible.  I don’t expect snowfall to be nearly as high as last year in places  like Boston but decent snowfall totals should occur for many of these  regions. Conditions should be drier overall in the Ohio Valley, but the  amount of snowfall that the area gets this winter is still a bit of a  wildcard. I should have a lot more information in the fall for this  region as there are still some fairly sizable uncertainties.



Looking at the map I have a curious question ,How does Montana- Wisconsin end up much warmer and Arkansas -Maine end up cold ?
if the cold air comes from the artic...and the "Ridge "or "Blob " factors in ......Hmmmm?


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## Not Sure (Aug 7, 2015)

http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blo...o-in-100-years-Here-are-some-predictions-2506

Damn ! hope they're wrong


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## ALLSKIING (Aug 7, 2015)

They don't have a clue more then 3 days out and even then they can get it wrong.


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## Not Sure (Aug 7, 2015)

ALLSKIING said:


> They don't have a clue more then 3 days out and even then they can get it wrong.



These guys nailed the last two winter forecasts,around the end of August they put out an official one.
Hoping there is more warm water off Alaska than what they have in the first run.


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## ALLSKIING (Aug 7, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> These guys nailed the last two winter forecasts,around the end of August they put out an official one.
> Hoping there is more warm water off Alaska than what they have in the first run.



I know what your saying but for me they were way to specific to even pay attention.  For instance "all the snow for the NE may come in one big nor'easter" really?


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## Not Sure (Aug 7, 2015)

ALLSKIING said:


> I know what your saying but for me they were way to specific to even pay attention.  For instance "all the snow for the NE may come in one big nor'easter" really?



I took his comments from a Lehigh valley perspective , We get 35" annually and a 2' storm is significant.
In "82" I left home a day after a mid Feb 2'storm and ended up jumping water bars a K's 4 mile trail.


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## dlague (Aug 7, 2015)

Yesterday at Sunshine Village


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## yeggous (Aug 7, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> These guys nailed the last two winter forecasts,around the end of August they put out an official one.
> Hoping there is more warm water off Alaska than what they have in the first run.



A broken clock is right twice per day.


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## ss20 (Aug 12, 2015)

I'll take it.  After the past two winters, less cold is a good thing.


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## St. Bear (Aug 12, 2015)

ss20 said:


> I'll take it.  After the past two winters, less cold is a good thing.
> 
> View attachment 17294



Especially since a lot of the ridging that brought the intense cold is often responsible for storms missing the 40/70 benchmark for big storms.


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## ss20 (Aug 12, 2015)

St. Bear said:


> Especially since a lot of the ridging that brought the intense cold is often responsible for storms missing the 40/70 benchmark for big storms.



This will be the third season I've followed this weather sub-forum.  All of my meteorological knowledge has come from here.  That being said... please translate into somewhat-laymen's terms that are above Weather Channel terminology but below the level of BenedictGomez and the like.


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## VTKilarney (Aug 13, 2015)

Everything has to average out.  


.


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## St. Bear (Aug 13, 2015)

ss20 said:


> This will be the third season I've followed this weather sub-forum.  All of my meteorological knowledge has come from here.  That being said... please translate into somewhat-laymen's terms that are above Weather Channel terminology but below the level of BenedictGomez and the like.



This is my understanding of it. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong. 

Look at this pic

 http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/500Tue.jpg 

Don't pay attention to the exact location of the Low, but look how it creates front lines that run up the East Coast. That's how you get big storms in this part of the country. It pulls cold air from Canada at the same time that it pulls moisture from the ocean. 

If you move that low a hundred miles or so East, and New England is no longer in the vertical front lines, the air will be colder, but the front will block access to the moisture and most of the storm will be pushed out to sea. So you may get some snow, but not the blockbuster storms.

This is also partly responsible for why Southern New England has done so well the past few years. The low was over northern/central New England, and southern area was located at the front boundaries.


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## dlague (Aug 13, 2015)

St. Bear said:


> This is my understanding of it. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.
> 
> Look at this pic
> 
> ...



or

Collect moisture from the pacific
then moves into cold arctic air that plunges south
collect more moisture fron the gulf
shoot up the eastern cost to NE and dump!


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## Abubob (Sep 1, 2015)

All the predictions in one place:

http://opensnow.com/news/post/el-ni...ternal&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20150831


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## Not Sure (Sep 7, 2015)

Like Winter forecast Eh..get your Tukes out 
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/winter-weather-forecast-preview-2015-canada/56510/


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## Not Sure (Sep 9, 2015)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVxZe82uy4Y

This forecast Sucks! The've been right alot but there due for a screw up. Pattern has Alaska in a cold pattern, no accounting for the blob.


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## Abubob (Sep 10, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVxZe82uy4Y
> 
> This forecast Sucks! The've been right alot but there due for a screw up. Pattern has Alaska in a cold pattern, no accounting for the blob.


I love the economic forecast that goes along with this. They could add with the sucky winter forecast for 2015-16 that winter clothing and equipment will see record low prices for spring 2016!


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## Not Sure (Oct 3, 2015)

http://wxedge.com/2015/09/15/winter-2015-2016-weather-forecast/

A little Better......


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## BBMF (Oct 5, 2015)

fingers crossed:

https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.ne...=896dbffb5c4d129f8c751a6642777f5c&oe=568C3B81


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## moresnow (Oct 6, 2015)

BBMF said:


> fingers crossed:
> 
> https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.ne...=896dbffb5c4d129f8c751a6642777f5c&oe=568C3B81



You can uncross them.
http://myfox8.com/2014/09/08/record-shattering-snowfall-this-winter-not-so-fast/


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## catsup948 (Oct 6, 2015)

St. Bear said:


> Especially since a lot of the ridging that brought the intense cold is often responsible for storms missing the 40/70 benchmark for big storms.



Good point.  Having as active a jet stream as last year but with less cold would make for an interesting winter in the mountains.  I would bet places closer to the coast that got piles of snow last year will get their fair share of both rain and snow in an active pattern.  Who knows though it could be super cold and DC gets crushed.


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## dlague (Oct 6, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> Good point.  Having as active a jet stream as last year but with less cold would make for an interesting winter in the mountains.  I would bet places closer to the coast that got piles of snow last year will get their fair share of both rain and snow in an active pattern.  Who knows though it could be super cold and DC gets crushed.



Just as long as the less cold does not translate into January thaws.  That is what was great about last season - minimal thawing.


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## yeggous (Oct 6, 2015)

dlague said:


> Just as long as the less cold does not translate into January thaws.  That is what was great about last season - minimal thawing.



So you want your cake and to eat it too?


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## dlague (Oct 6, 2015)

yeggous said:


> So you want your cake and to eat it too?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



Hell ya! All snow and no r@!n  Keep it cold!


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## slatham (Oct 6, 2015)

The forecasts I have seen all point to a good winter in the NE if not as cold and r@#* free as last winter. Also I'd say that overall confidence is lower than last year (or 2) given El Nino. But it looks to NOT be a typical El Nino year (which are often bad in the NE) due to numerous factors, several of which were in play last year (or 2) and helped with the cold (PDO for instance). Worth a web search for more details.

These forecasts look nothing like the links above which shows an image far far away from the official forecasts I've seen or any model run for that matter.

Check out Accuweather and Weatherbell for starters.


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## catsup948 (Oct 6, 2015)

Exactly.  Winter without thaws like the last are rare.  I'm excited to see how it all plays out.


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## ss20 (Oct 11, 2015)

She'll be comin' round the mountain when she comes...

She'll be comin' round the mountain when she comes...


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## ScottySkis (Oct 11, 2015)

ss20 said:


> She'll be comin' round the mountain when she comes...
> 
> She'll be comin' round the mountain when she comes...
> 
> ...



No snow what will we due ha he.


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## catsup948 (Oct 12, 2015)

Could be some upslope.


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 16, 2015)

Things are starting to look better.   Some things are going are way, like the Siberian snow cover looks good, and some of the bad things are "less bad" looking now.


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## yeggous (Oct 16, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Things are starting to look better.   Some things are going are way, like the Siberian snow cover looks good, and some of the bad things are "less bad" looking now.



Wishful thinking. I expect a roller coaster winter than trends on the warm side.


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 16, 2015)

yeggous said:


> Wishful thinking. I expect a roller coaster winter than trends on the warm side.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



Freeze thaw.....freeze thaw.....puke


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## yeggous (Oct 16, 2015)

ALLSKIING said:


> Freeze thaw.....freeze thaw.....puke



Yes, that tends to be what you get with these type of years. Whether you net an above or below average snowfall total is a game of chance. Either way it is unlikely to stay consistently cold.


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## Not Sure (Oct 16, 2015)

yeggous said:


> Yes, that tends to be what you get with these type of years. Whether you net an above or below average snowfall total is a game of chance. Either way it is unlikely to stay consistently cold.



Would be curious to see if previous El Nino's had an interaction with a pool of warm water ( The Blob) off Alaska.
Or is this a previously unseen pattern?


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## Not Sure (Oct 16, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Things are starting to look better.   Some things are going are way, like the Siberian snow cover looks good, and some of the bad things are "less bad" looking now.



http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/
Been too busy to go back and look at Siberia other years vs this one. Cool site though


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## Rowsdower (Oct 17, 2015)

September was one of the warmest on record, globally. Although what that means locally will differ, of course, and a warm autumn doesn't necessarily mean a warm winter. 

We'll see, but I'm expecting the worst so as not to be too disappointed just in case.


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## yeggous (Oct 17, 2015)

It's currently dumping in North Conway. It has started to accumulate.


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## Rowsdower (Oct 19, 2015)

November looks warm.


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## dlague (Oct 20, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> November looks warm.



Then again I think someone posted warm October but people are skiing already!


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 20, 2015)

dlague said:


> Then again I think someone posted warm October but people are skiing already!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



That's a good point....also warmer then average could be 1 degree above.


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 20, 2015)

There's a solid thesis I've seen that the first 1/2 of winter could be warmer than average, and the second 1/2 of winter could be colder than average.


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## Harvey (Oct 21, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> There's a solid thesis I've seen that the first 1/2 of winter could be warmer than average, and the second 1/2 of winter could be colder than average.



Would love to see, can you post a link?


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## Harvey (Oct 21, 2015)

(Double post)


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## Not Sure (Oct 22, 2015)

For entertainment purposes Only ...IDKN ,At this time more Siberian snow than fall 2013. Interesting swath of snow in Canada.

On the Entomalogical front saw a huge Boxelder bug hatch today. Reminds me of Winter of 93-94


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## slatham (Oct 28, 2015)

https://opensnow.com/news/post/el-nino-part-3-how-will-el-nino-impact-snowfall-for-the-2015-2016-ski-season

Accuweather and Weatherbell also have good info out on the upcoming winter.

But this winter is a tough call. Will a more typical El Nino pattern be in control, or will the +PDO (warm water in NE Pacific that helped the last couple of winters) and a move to a Modoki (central) El Nino change the pattern as we get to mid winter? Accuweather for one has out two scenarios and has not made a call on which one they think will prevail.

But there is solid consensus that November is warm in the East (some, like weatherbell, have had this forecast out for some time now).


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## dlague (Oct 29, 2015)

the next two weeks look terrible!


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## Tin (Oct 30, 2015)

dlague said:


> the next two weeks look terrible!



It is looking pretty bad. Like, really bad. Might not see top to bottom at K until around Thanksgiving.


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## JimG. (Oct 30, 2015)

IMO a warm November is not bad...often leads to a cold and snowy second half of the season.

Far superior to a warm January.


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## Rowsdower (Oct 30, 2015)

Yeah, looks like early season will be a wash at this point. 

I won't complain as long as we get a solid second half of the season.


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## BenedictGomez (Nov 2, 2015)

November is here, which means one thing.

You can now actually start to pay attention to winter 2015-2016 forecasts as possibly having some hints of accuracy, as opposed to solely existing to drive web traffic, click-throughs, and marketing dollars.


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## dlague (Nov 2, 2015)

This blows!

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...november-warmup-western-chill-stormy/53299849


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## Puck it (Nov 2, 2015)

This winter blows!!!!!!   Oh wait it is still Fall!


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## Abubob (Nov 2, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> November is here, which means one thing.
> 
> You can now actually start to pay attention to winter 2015-2016 forecasts as possibly having some hints of accuracy, as opposed to solely existing to drive web traffic, click-throughs, and marketing dollars.


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## Rowsdower (Nov 2, 2015)

I mean, November does look like it will come through warmer than we'd like. Will have to hope some sustained cold comes in by mid-December. 

Personally, anything before mid/late January is gravy to me. Early season is always hit or miss.


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## BenedictGomez (Nov 2, 2015)

Joe Cioffi's first attempt at a winter forecast is out.  He's a good met and very conservative, not a hyping bomb-tossing alarmist.



> *I am going to lean toward the idea that the winter will make  occasional appearances between now and the end of December. An early  snowfall will hinge on whether the N.A.O. goes negative over the last 6  weeks of the year. If it does I think we will get a couple of chances.  Otherwise we will have to wait until late December or Early January for  the El Nino to weaken enough to allow the other factors to come into  play. So I will forecast temperatures to average closer to normal when  you net it all out with a bias toward a little below normal. Snowfall  will probably be closer to normal and lower than the last 2 winters but  well above the El Nino years where snowfall was very low.  I also  believe that unlike the last 2 winters where the cold patterns were long  and unrelenting, I believe there will be more variability this winter  with warmer and colder stretches of shorter duration.* With regards to  “the big one” we know that all it will take is one of those to throw the  snowfall forecast completely out the window but I do believe there will  be one or two threats that will look like “classic” threats for big  events as I expect the N.A.O. to be more of a factor than in past  winters. When you look at the past it is natural to expect a sub par  winter since most of them actually are in one respect or another. They  can’t all be cold with non stop blizzards. At this point I want to state that there is a high probability that  my forecast is going to go wrong somehow on any one or all of these  factors. I don’t see the practicality of providing a long range view  with some many variables that even those with PHD’s have a difficult  time understanding. Sure if you are a natural gas or oil trader you  might want to set up trades or perhaps if your business is weather  dependent you might want to take some sort of hedging strategies. But  for the average person, you have to buy a coat, gloves, and a scarf and  maybe chop a little less or a little more firewood. Perhaps you might  top off your oil tank before a cold blast. Other than that you are stuck  here. It is not as if you are going to sell your house and move for a  colder than normal winter.  Many of you have been asking me for a winter  forecast. I do this kicking and screaming but now you have it. It will  be in the archive here for anyone to pull it up and throw it back at me  which every way it goes. And yes I will probably update this somewhere  along the way because, as I have tried to show over the last year,  forecasting is a journey and not a single event.


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## Not Sure (Nov 3, 2015)

http://www.weatherbell.com/

Very encouraging words from JB ! , Check out Saturday video update on the page


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## yeggous (Nov 3, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> http://www.weatherbell.com/
> 
> Very encouraging words from JB ! , Check out Saturday video update on the page



That dude is batshit. He just likes to hear himself speak. Yes, that is my professional opinion.

As for the winter forecast, he is correct that this a non-traditional central Pacific ENSO. That does favorite a less terrible winter for skiers. My best guess is we'll see a crazy roller coaster winter.


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## mriceyman (Nov 4, 2015)

yeggous said:


> That dude is batshit. He just likes to hear himself speak. Yes, that is my professional opinion.
> 
> As for the winter forecast, he is correct that this a non-traditional central Pacific ENSO. That does favorite a less terrible winter for skiers. My best guess is we'll see a crazy roller coaster winter.



Everyone will be wishing for the cold we had last year


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## dlague (Nov 4, 2015)

Roller coaster?  I really hope not.  Thaw  then freeze thaw then freeze really sucks.  Lots of scraped off conditions develop.  I just want the cold to be here.


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## Tin (Nov 4, 2015)

Enough snow but lots of freeze-thaw cycles seems to be a popular theme. Learn to sharpen your own edges.


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## Puck it (Nov 4, 2015)

I think I need a trip out west!!!!!!!!


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## dlague (Nov 4, 2015)

Puck it said:


> I think I need a trip out west!!!!!!!!



Wonder if they are going to have a repeat?  Last year they got plenty of snow early and then dried up if I recall.  Then March took over.


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## ALLSKIING (Nov 4, 2015)

mriceyman said:


> Everyone will be wishing for the cold we had last year
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



That long lasting cold is rare in the north east.


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## moresnow (Nov 4, 2015)

Tin said:


> Enough snow but lots of freeze-thaw cycles seems to be a popular theme. Learn to sharpen your own edges.



So you're saying we are going to have a typical winter.


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## andrec10 (Nov 4, 2015)

BTW, this warm weather SUCKS!!!


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## bigbog (Nov 4, 2015)

Don't know if they're officially open yet but Big Sky has 20"...:roll:

Difficult to judge by anything before January...


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## dlague (Nov 4, 2015)

Tin said:


> Enough snow but lots of freeze-thaw cycles seems to be a popular theme. Learn to sharpen your own edges.



Got the sharpening thing down - sliced my thumb open while doing it.


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## dlague (Nov 4, 2015)

bigbog said:


> Don't know if they're officially open yet but Big Sky has 20"...:roll:
> 
> Difficult to judge by anything before January...



Heck - it is hard to judge anything in January!  Just do not know what will be delivered weather wise!


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## St. Bear (Nov 4, 2015)

Not really a winter forecast, but it's somewhat related and I didn't think it was worthy of it's own thread.

Accuweather did a puff piece on the snowiest places in the US, and they claim Mt. Washington is tops in the East with 281" a year.  Mt. Mansfield comes in at 211" a year.  No mention of Jay.
http://www.weather.com/news/weather/video/here-are-the-snowiest-places-in-the-us


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## 〽❄❅ (Nov 4, 2015)

- yeah I like this piece better, http://www.weather.com/news/weather/video/nasa-report-says-antarctica-is-gaining-ice


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## dlague (Nov 4, 2015)

〽❄❅;919113 said:
			
		

> - yeah I like this piece better, http://www.weather.com/news/weather/video/nasa-report-says-antarctica-is-gaining-ice



I saw that too!


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## Rowsdower (Nov 5, 2015)

Due to increasing snowfall though.

Too bad its the wrong hemisphere.


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## andrec10 (Nov 5, 2015)

They just cancelled the Levi SL. Warm in Europe too!


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## dlague (Nov 5, 2015)

andrec10 said:


> They just cancelled the Levi SL. Warm in Europe too!



Uh oh!  GW discussion about to start!


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## andrec10 (Nov 5, 2015)

dlague said:


> Uh oh!  GW discussion about to start!



Glad I could help! Lol...


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## BenedictGomez (Nov 5, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> Due to increasing snowfall though.



Amazing how such omnipotent infallible beings didn't predict that though.


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## Not Sure (Nov 5, 2015)

dlague said:


> Uh oh!  GW discussion about to start!



http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/06/s...in-new-york-over-climate-statements.html?_r=0

:blink:  WTF ! Seems the BUND is back from the 30's


----------



## dlague (Nov 6, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> View attachment 17791
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/06/s...in-new-york-over-climate-statements.html?_r=0
> 
> :blink:  WTF ! Seems the BUND is back from the 30's



Oh boy what about organizations that over state GW?  Well they are ok!


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----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 6, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> :blink:  WTF ! Seems the BUND is back from the 30's



You should see today's update (below).  This **** is freaking scary as hell, and something out of a communist handbook.   



> prosecutors may decide to investigate companies that chose to fund or join organizations that questioned climate science



The Obama Administration is now legitimately terrifying.  If you heard about this in passing, you'd simply assume it was total BS far right-wing propaganda, but shockingly, this is actually true. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/07/s...-of-climate-investigations.html?smid=tw-share


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 6, 2015)

As for winter, starting to look like this will be a stinker of a November to mid-December, but what else is new.  Every December cant be as amazing as 2013-2015, when even the Poconos had peak winter conditions by December 15th.  I'm not fazed....yet.


----------



## slatham (Nov 7, 2015)

BG, not so sure. Yes, November is and will finish way above normal, but that was the forecast from several of the sources I use. They also forecasted a colder December, and winter for that matter (though not to the extent of the last 2 years). Now the short/medium range models and forecasters are starting to pick up on a pattern change as we head toward Thanksgiving. There is plenty of time for things to turn for December. Getting a bit tight on having skiing for Thanksgiving but not out of the question. THINK SNOW!


----------



## Abubob (Nov 8, 2015)

First winter storm or first winter tease?



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## Rowsdower (Nov 8, 2015)

You'll only see white stuff at the highest elevations. Will be too warm for anything else.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Nov 8, 2015)

Big pattern change coming this week...No more of this November nonsense.

There are really two ways this El Nino could go for us and the next couple of weeks will be key determinants if the classic split flow develops.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 8, 2015)

slatham said:


> *There is plenty of time for things to turn for December.* Getting a bit tight on having skiing for Thanksgiving but not out of the question. THINK SNOW!



Yes, but if I were forced to put down money today, I'd bet on December being below average to average at the very  best.  One good storm the last week of December would cure all though.


----------



## Tin (Nov 9, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yes, but if I were forced to put down money today, I'd bet on December being below average to average at the very  best.  One good storm the last week of December would cure all though.



The past few December's were great. So I booked for the week prior to Christmas...so I'm sure it will suck.


----------



## ss20 (Nov 9, 2015)

Tin said:


> The past few December's were great. So I booked for the week prior to Christmas...so I'm sure it will suck.



Same, lol.  $267 for two nights, two day lift tickets, breakfast and walk-to-slope access for two people is pretty good no matter the conditions.


----------



## Tin (Nov 9, 2015)

ss20 said:


> Same, lol.  $267 for two nights, two day lift tickets, breakfast and walk-to-slope access for two people is pretty good no matter the conditions.



 Almost exact price for our trip (prior to stopping at a NH liquor store). Early season and March have the best deals. Hoping Magic gets some snow or we will be skiing Pico and K. Have bogos to both to burn so it isn't bad.


----------



## skiberg (Nov 9, 2015)

What's a big change? I don't see this on any forecasts unless you mean a return to more seasonable temps. I think we get on snow by turkey day, but it is not going to be pretty.


----------



## Tin (Nov 9, 2015)

skiberg said:


> What's a big change? I don't see this on any forecasts unless you mean a return to more seasonable temps. I think we get on snow by turkey day, but it is not going to be pretty.


.
A coating or few inches for the mountains Sat-Sunday and then marginal snow making temps for the players. The windows don't look extended though. It beats mid 50s!


----------



## yeggous (Nov 9, 2015)

And the wet bulbs are going to be marginal at best. Not a good situation at all.


----------



## skiberg (Nov 9, 2015)

I'm just hoping for top to bottom at SR or maybe even BW. Not looking good for Cannon. Only good thing for Cannon is that they are wasting State money. Yes they have a budget,  but not like blowing $ snowmaking will put them out of business. Once they are allowed to begin making snow, which is generally around mid-month, they can go for it pretty liberally.


----------



## catsup948 (Nov 9, 2015)

Abubob said:


> First winter storm or first winter tease?
> View attachment 17802
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone



This is tease maybe.  If storms like these actually happen this winter Central and northern Vermont is going to get destroyed and the upslope... Wow!


----------



## yeggous (Nov 10, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> This is tease maybe.  If storms like these actually happen this winter Central and northern Vermont is going to get destroyed and the upslope... Wow!



That is a 10 day forecast. At those lead times there is a resolution shift in the GFS. Because of the model numerics there is a big upscale cascade of energy in the model. The result is unrealistically robust synoptic scale systems. These forecasts are useful only for ensemble products to investigate the probability of synoptic scale ridges and troughs.


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----------



## catsup948 (Nov 10, 2015)

yeggous said:


> That is a 10 day forecast. At those lead times there is a resolution shift in the GFS. Because of the model numerics there is a big upscale cascade of energy in the model. The result is unrealistically robust synoptic scale systems. These forecasts are useful only for ensemble products to investigate the probability of synoptic scale ridges and troughs.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



I wasn't commenting on this possible storm.  I'm just saying Vermont could do well if these sorta storms were to happen.


----------



## Abubob (Nov 11, 2015)

yeggous said:


> That is a 10 day forecast. At those lead times there is a resolution shift in the GFS. Because of the model numerics there is a big upscale cascade of energy in the model. The result is unrealistically robust synoptic scale systems. These forecasts are useful only for ensemble products to investigate the probability of synoptic scale ridges and troughs.


I agree with this (at least I think I do). Given that this is so long range of a forecast it really only gives a general idea of what patterns may emerge. Look at this taken from this morning's model of the same system, still almost 10 days out. Still a strong surge from the southern jet with an equal push of a mass of cold air.


----------



## yeggous (Nov 11, 2015)

Abubob said:


> I agree with this (at least I think I do). Given that this is so long range of a forecast it really only gives a general idea of what patterns may emerge. Look at this taken from this morning's model of the same system, still almost 10 days out. Still a strong surge from the southern jet with an equal push of a mass of cold air.



If you're looking that far out, you really should be looking at the ensemble means averaged over a time window. Averaging over a number of ensemble members helps account for the fact that the system is non-linear and chaotic. Averaging over a time window helps wash out the influence of slight phasing errors of transient disturbances.


----------



## Abubob (Nov 11, 2015)

yeggous said:


> If you're looking that far out, you really should be looking at the ensemble means averaged over a time window. Averaging over a number of ensemble members helps account for the fact that the system is non-linear and chaotic. Averaging over a time window helps wash out the influence of slight phasing errors of transient disturbances.


If I knew where to find these models I'd look them up. I also don't like the look of these forecasts. Are those for the same time period?


----------



## yeggous (Nov 11, 2015)

Abubob said:


> If I knew where to find these models I'd look them up. I also don't like the look of these forecasts. Are those for the same time period?


Source page:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html
Specific image link:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html

Yes, from left to right is the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC ensembles valid Thursday - Saturday of next week. As you can see, the signal is very robust. The contour lines are ensemble mean 500 mb heights, and colors are the anomaly. The pattern show is a strong ridge in the east and trough in the west.

I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news.


----------



## ALLSKIING (Nov 11, 2015)

yeggous said:


> Source page:
> http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html
> Specific image link:
> http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html
> ...



Can't we just stick with "the models are always wrong" theory ?


----------



## yeggous (Nov 11, 2015)

ALLSKIING said:


> Can't we just stick with "the models are always wrong" theory ?



Sure, but the spread of the model ensemble provides insight into how wrong it is likely to be. Do you see how flat the signal is over Asia and the western Pacific? That can be a sign of either:
1) The model is highly uncertain
2) It is very likely to be zonal flow
To differentiate between those two options we would look at the ensemble variance and individual members.


----------



## slatham (Nov 11, 2015)

The battle for next week is all but won by warm. The question is the following week. Baring sea rule results in a trough. Does the PNA go positive - west ridge, east trough - as some long range models suggest? Does the AO and /or NAO go negative? In other words, does the pattern change, and save Thanksgiving? This is still a distinct possibility. This is what we have to watch.


----------



## Rowsdower (Nov 12, 2015)

50s until mid December.


----------



## andrec10 (Nov 12, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> 50s until mid December.



Its easy to get banned with posts like that!  Lol...


----------



## Puck it (Nov 12, 2015)

andrec10 said:


> Its easy to get banned with posts like that!  Lol...


Ban him to Mizzou and tell them he is a journalist!!!!!!!


----------



## Smellytele (Nov 12, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> 50s until mid December.



Hopefully only in PA not NNE.


----------



## Tin (Nov 12, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> 50s until mid December.



I wouldn't mind as long as we got some good storms mid-end of December. Last December and the year prior were awesome. Pretty sad two years ago this time I was skiing the Superstar pod at K.


----------



## dlague (Nov 12, 2015)

This is serious!


----------



## slatham (Nov 12, 2015)

http://www.uvm.edu/~empact/data/gendateplot.php3?table=SummitStation&title=Mount+Mansfield+Summit+Station&xskip=7&xparam=Date&yparam=Depth&year%5B%5D=2009&width=800&height=600&smooth=0&csv=0&totals=0

I follow Joe Bastardi from Weatherbell. He's been bullish on this winter, has had a warm November in the forecast, and thinks it turns towards the end of the month. He has used several different years as analogs, including 2009. Today he posted a blog about Thanksgiving week starting to have some potential, and he mentioned how 2009 was similar - warm, no snow, and then it came. So I looked up the snowfall history from 2009 at the Mt Mansfield stake (see link) and low and behold: NADDA until 11/24, and then off to the races (I think we'd all agreed that a repeat of 2009 would be welcome). Thanksgiving was the 26th in 2009. Oh, and it's the 26th this year too. 

I'll note several of the guys at Accuwether are also sensing a possible shift toward the end of the month, so its not just Joe.

Anyway, it cheered me up. Hope it helps you all too.

THINK SNOW!


----------



## Rowsdower (Nov 12, 2015)

I haven't seen anyone predicting a shift until at least mid December, if not much later.


----------



## Not Sure (Nov 12, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> I haven't seen anyone predicting a shift until at least mid December, if not much later.



Weather bell 11/7  update on their home page.


----------



## yeggous (Nov 12, 2015)

slatham said:


> http://www.uvm.edu/~empact/data/gendateplot.php3?table=SummitStation&title=Mount+Mansfield+Summit+Station&xskip=7&xparam=Date&yparam=Depth&year%5B%5D=2009&width=800&height=600&smooth=0&csv=0&totals=0
> 
> I follow Joe Bastardi from Weatherbell. He's been bullish on this winter, has had a warm November in the forecast, and thinks it turns towards the end of the month. He has used several different years as analogs, including 2009. Today he posted a blog about Thanksgiving week starting to have some potential, and he mentioned how 2009 was similar - warm, no snow, and then it came. So I looked up the snowfall history from 2009 at the Mt Mansfield stake (see link) and low and behold: NADDA until 11/24, and then off to the races (I think we'd all agreed that a repeat of 2009 would be welcome). Thanksgiving was the 26th in 2009. Oh, and it's the 26th this year too.
> 
> ...



They are not "sensing" anything. The ensembles have been moving the trough eastward from the Rockies to the midwest. Right now we're predicted to stay just on the warm side.


----------



## 〽❄❅ (Nov 13, 2015)

http://6abc.com/weather/cecily-tynans-winter-weather-outlook-/1082334/

Febuary
Febuary
Febuary
Febuary
Febuary
Febuary
Febuary


----------



## slatham (Nov 13, 2015)

The forecasters I follow who have been pointing to the end of November for a shift to colder eastern US are Paul Pastelak and Jack Boston from Accuweather, and Joe Bastardi and Joe D'Aleo from Weatherbell. I get access via subscription. I doubt what they have been talking about for the past several weeks+ has shown up in any "point and click" forecasts yet.

And to be specific, they are saying that a turn toward eastern US cold should start the week of November 23rd. Until then we are in fact very, very east of the cold trough, with way above normal temps. But this trough moves out/east and temps trend down, eventually getting below normal. While this might not lock in for weeks/months, its not going to transient like this weekends 48 hour cold snap. 

So lets see what happens the weeks of 11/23 and 11/30 and on 12/7 we can determine whether they were onto something or not.

On a final note, they are also all saying that February into March is the time to watch for eastern cold/snow.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 13, 2015)

yeggous said:


> The ensembles have been moving the trough eastward from the Rockies to the midwest. Right now we're predicted to stay just on the warm side.



Yeah, looks like mid-December is as early as I'd want to get optimistic.   

One things for sure, I wont be having a mid-February ski day in the Poconos on December 15th like I did a few years ago.


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## BenedictGomez (Nov 13, 2015)

But since we're snow-starved for a while, here's some modeled western snow porn to feast your eyes upon.


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## Puck it (Nov 13, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> But since we're snow-starved for a while, here's some modeled western snow porn to feast your eyes upon.


PNW and Front Range of CO are lookng good!!!!


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## Puck it (Nov 13, 2015)

And BC!!!!


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## BenedictGomez (Nov 13, 2015)

Lehigh Valley weather folks I follow call for a good winter for the Pocono range and the Cats.


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## Rowsdower (Nov 14, 2015)

That seems really optimistic given the trends setting up this season. Its still early of course. Looking forward to a good February to save things as usual.


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## Tin (Nov 15, 2015)

Next Sunday-Tuesday is looking interesting...


----------



## ALLSKIING (Nov 15, 2015)

Tin said:


> Next Sunday-Tuesday is looking interesting...



Yes...seems like things are hopefully changing.


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## dlague (Nov 15, 2015)

Tin said:


> Next Sunday-Tuesday is looking interesting...



I saw that reported on the news tonight.


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## Puck it (Nov 15, 2015)

dlague said:


> I saw that reported on the news tonight.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


Not seeing it. What is the change?


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## ALLSKIING (Nov 16, 2015)

Puck it said:


> Not seeing it. What is the change?



I see snowmaking at night 8 out of 10 days....not a huge change but it's a start.


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## steamboat1 (Nov 16, 2015)

I see snowmaking tonight & tomorrow night. Wish we could skip Thurs.


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## bigbog (Nov 16, 2015)

Mid-central Maine's high temps for today and for the rest of the week are in the mid-to-upper-40s.  Last week's predictions were for 50s throughout the week, so I think Motha' Nature's moving in a positive direction....slowly, but it's still early.


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## BenedictGomez (Nov 16, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> That seems really optimistic given the trends setting up this season.



That would be heavily weighted from January forward.


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## drjeff (Nov 17, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> That seems really optimistic given the trends setting up this season. Its still early of course. Looking forward to a good February to save things as usual.



When I was in DC last week for a convention, I saw the same map that BG posted for the mid-Atlantic states that one of the local TV Mets was discussing in his "winter forecast segment.  He was stressing that he DIDN'T think that this winter would have the prolonged cold like we had last year, but that the likely hood was based on models that the ingredients for a few sizeable storms would be there, especially after mid January, and as a result the chances of it being a "snowy" winter were better than average.  He then said that unlike last year where once it snowed, it stayed around for a while, that this year there will more than likely be some warm storms intermixed with the cold storms to melt away some of what falls rather than piling more snow on top of multiple previous storms snowfalls.  He seemed to think that the atmospheric "battleground" between the warm air to the South and the cold air from the North would tend to generally be near that region, especially during the 2nd half of the winter months


----------



## wtcobb (Nov 18, 2015)

Article from AJ detailing the El Nino - new record set for average Pacific temps:

http://adventure-journal.com/2015/11/el-nino-just-broke-a-record-now-what/


----------



## yeggous (Nov 18, 2015)

drjeff said:


> When I was in DC last week for a convention, I saw the same map that BG posted for the mid-Atlantic states that one of the local TV Mets was discussing in his "winter forecast segment.  He was stressing that he DIDN'T think that this winter would have the prolonged cold like we had last year, but that the likely hood was based on models that the ingredients for a few sizeable storms would be there, especially after mid January, and as a result the chances of it being a "snowy" winter were better than average.  He then said that unlike last year where once it snowed, it stayed around for a while, that this year there will more than likely be some warm storms intermixed with the cold storms to melt away some of what falls rather than piling more snow on top of multiple previous storms snowfalls.  He seemed to think that the atmospheric "battleground" between the warm air to the South and the cold air from the North would tend to generally be near that region, especially during the 2nd half of the winter months



So another words he forecasted the climatological mean? Ballsy.


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## Rowsdower (Nov 18, 2015)

yeggous said:


> So another words he forecasted the climatological mean? Ballsy.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



If there's a lot of temperature variation it'll mean a raw, icy season, especially down here in the Poconos and Catskills. You can have an "average" year with a lot of variability.


----------



## Not Sure (Nov 18, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> If there's a lot of temperature variation it'll mean a raw, icy season, especially down here in the Poconos and Catskills. You can have an "average" year with a lot of variability.



 So this year will be all about timing, get the goods while there fresh.


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## bigbog (Nov 18, 2015)

A market for liftline armor....  Just bull your way to the front of the line...I can see it now:lol:


----------



## Not Sure (Nov 18, 2015)

A toofer! Great self arrest gear!


bigbog said:


> A market for liftline armor....  Just bull your way to the front of the line...I can see it now:lol:


----------



## bigbog (Nov 18, 2015)

:lol::lol:


----------



## JimG. (Nov 19, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> If there's a lot of temperature variation it'll mean a raw, icy season, especially down here in the Poconos and Catskills. You can have an "average" year with a lot of variability.



Eastern skiers eat raw and icy for lunch.


----------



## andrec10 (Nov 19, 2015)

JimG. said:


> Eastern skiers eat raw and icy for lunch.



Keep those edges sharp Boys and Girls!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 20, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> If there's a lot of temperature variation it'll mean a raw, icy season, especially down here in the Poconos and Catskills. You can have an "average" year with a lot of variability.



The Poconos may potentially have a terrible ski season.  Mixed periods of warm until mid-December than possibly a January thaw would be awful for them.


----------



## ScottySkis (Nov 20, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> The Poconos may potentially have a terrible ski season.  Mixed periods of warm until mid-December than possibly a January thaw would be awful for them.



Sure who knows for really what will happen before it happens. Hoping for elk to make snow only oa place I might ski if I ski. L


----------



## steamboat1 (Nov 20, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> So this year will be all about timing, get the goods while there fresh.



So what else is new?

Same chit different day.


----------



## Rowsdower (Nov 22, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Mixed periods of warm until mid-December than possibly a January thaw would be awful for them.



So in other words, a typical season? The real issue is if we get a consistently cold/snowy February. Good years the Poconos can have great conditions in February.


----------



## Not Sure (Nov 23, 2015)

Possible Storm next week!
http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-november-21-2015


----------



## ScottySkis (Nov 23, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Possible Storm next week!
> http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-november-21-2015[/QUOTn    hope their correct. We need this. For me for NY areas?


----------



## skiberg (Nov 23, 2015)

Best thing in that forecast is "Often November in El Nino years can be the opposite of how the rest of the winter goes."  Keep em crossed.


----------



## Tin (Nov 23, 2015)

Next Tues-Thursday....


----------



## ScottySkis (Nov 23, 2015)

Tin said:


> Next Tues-Thursday....


 for all Catskills or new England.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 24, 2015)




----------



## Tin (Nov 24, 2015)

Yup...


----------



## slatham (Nov 24, 2015)

Looks like I'm going down in flames with my forecast of an end of the month into December turn to winter! While we've got a bit of winter now, and may get bits and pieces here and there, it is now looking like we remain in a back and forth pattern that skews warm. That said, I don't think anyone or any model has any f-ing idea what is going to happen. So hopefully now that I've capitulated it will in fact turn cold and snow!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 24, 2015)

Judah Cohen's winter temp forecast.  He's like most folks, on-board with a back-half loaded winter.


----------



## 〽❄❅ (Nov 25, 2015)

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2015/11/24/weather-in-depth-winter-weather-outlook-for-our-region/


----------



## Rowsdower (Nov 27, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Judah Cohen's winter temp forecast.  He's like most folks, on-board with a back-half loaded winter.



I hope that works out. Looks like December and now maybe even January are gonna be a total wash. As long as we get consistent cold into late January through February I'll be happy.


----------



## Smellytele (Nov 27, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> I hope that works out. Looks like December and now maybe even January are gonna be a total wash. As long as we get consistent cold into late January through February I'll be happy.



New England shows warmer than normal in this time frame which wouldn't be great.


----------



## bdfreetuna (Nov 27, 2015)

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2015/11/can-this-seasons-big-el-nino-wreck-our.html


----------



## Rowsdower (Nov 28, 2015)

What's the track record for the year after a big El Nino?


----------



## skiberg (Nov 28, 2015)

Looks like we have a major La Niña coming. I think La Niña years are like El Niño years, in that they are unpredictable and prone to periods of warmth and cold. In other words I think they are inconsistent as well, but we really need a pro to speak to this.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 30, 2015)




----------



## BenedictGomez (Nov 30, 2015)

This might be one of those times I'm not missing anything by going to Florida for Christmas.


----------



## Harvey (Nov 30, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> This might be one of those times I'm not missing anything by going to Florida for Christmas.



No such thing.


----------



## 〽❄❅ (Nov 30, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> This might be one of those times I'm not missing anything by going to Florida for Christmas.


Yeah I'm thinking the same, and I'm not a fan of the sunshine state!


----------



## dlague (Nov 30, 2015)

Here is a pretty cool weather tool!

http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/gfsx-sfc-temperature-and-wind-forecast.htm


----------



## skiberg (Nov 30, 2015)

Another report confirming the same

~*Day 6-10 Discussion:*

El nino is playing its role any least for the early winter as advertised. TheNOAA outlooks are coast to coast above normal. I went near normal in parts ofthe south and west due to the location and intensity of a southern storm track.Northern cold relative to normal does not exist and that can be said for mostof Canada too as pacific air overwhelms. As we head into the extended itappears we will see expanding warmer than normal air along with a southernstorm track. That keeps the rain chances going for ERCOT and SERC. So far, thewet winter is not quite ready to materialize over the SW, it has actually beenwet farther north.


----------



## skiberg (Nov 30, 2015)

This is how depressing it is so far. Here is the snow report for Mont Tremblant. Not a freakin flake so far.
[h=3]Snowfall[/h]as of 11/30/15 @2:11 pm EST                 0cm 24 Hrs
0cm 48 Hrs
0cm 7 Days
0cm                        Season Total


----------



## j law (Dec 1, 2015)

skiberg said:


> This is how depressing it is so far. Here is the snow report for Mont Tremblant. Not a freakin flake so far.
> [h=3]Snowfall[/h]as of 11/30/15 @2:11 pm EST                 0cm 24 Hrs
> 0cm 48 Hrs
> 0cm 7 Days
> 0cm                        Season Total



This is depressing too... Unless you have plans to go out west.

http://snowbrains.com/top-10-snowfall-totals-in-north-america-right-now/





Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZonemmmmmm


----------



## JDMRoma (Dec 1, 2015)

j law said:


> This is depressing too... Unless you have plans to go out west.
> 
> http://snowbrains.com/top-10-snowfall-totals-in-north-america-right-now/
> 
> ...




Woah...........Wish I was going to Alyeska at the end of the week !!

#1 = Alyeska, AK = 129″
#2 = Revelstoke, BC: =128″
#3 = Wolf Creek, CO = 112″
#4 = Kicking Horse, B.C. = 111″
#5  = Whitewater, B.C. = 104″
#6 = Loveland, CO = 100″
#7 = Sunshine Village, AB = 86″
#8 = Lake Louise, AB = 84″
#9 = Keystone, CO = 81″
#10 = Winter Park, CO = 80″


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 1, 2015)

Though statistically improbable, the forecast is getting even worse.....


----------



## Puck it (Dec 1, 2015)

JDMRoma said:


> Woah...........Wish I was going to Alyeska at the end of the week !!
> 
> #1 = Alyeska, AK = 129″
> #2 = Revelstoke, BC: =128″
> ...


Like Alex. Hope he gets to ride.


----------



## JDMRoma (Dec 1, 2015)

Puck it said:


> Like Alex. Hope he gets to ride.



Wonder if he needs help ?
We could volunteer !

Yes hope he can get some time on the snow. We can live vicariously through his adventures !


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----------



## timmyc (Dec 3, 2015)

...


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 3, 2015)

http://www.upstatesnow.com/weather/news-story/final-call-winter-forecast-2015-16/#
Snow after January .


----------



## Rowsdower (Dec 3, 2015)

Will really depend on when/if this El Nino weakens enough to let cold air back down. 

Still hoping we see a pattern change in January but its not looking very rosy right now.


----------



## ALLSKIING (Dec 3, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> Will really depend on when/if this El Nino weakens enough to let cold air back down.
> 
> Still hoping we see a pattern change in January but its not looking very rosy right now.



I'm no weather man but I'm hearing of a pattern change by the end of the holidays by multiple sites.


----------



## slatham (Dec 3, 2015)

Re: accuweather - Paul has really been leaning on the CFS model - and persistence - but he's been right. Weatherbell still believes a pattern change will slowly evolve and is using the Canadian, JMA and their analogs to support the argument. The interesting thing is they're not too different - Weatherbell has warmer than usual December for instance, but does come in colder in Jan. They both think the core of the winter is Feb.

But we must all keep one very important fact in mind - it can snow a TON with average temps ABOVE normal! But we do we need a bit of a pattern change where the unusually high heights over the NE and into Eastern Canada move Northwest toward west shore of Hudson Bay and allow the cold air to filter down while lower heights and storms can move east and up the coast. This is what some of the models are showing, but the CFS is not one of them. So we'll have to see which solution the models gravitate toward over the next couple of weeks. But there is way more than a glimmer of hope for a good winter, however frustrating things are as of today.


----------



## Tin (Dec 3, 2015)

Looking good for the mountains of NH for base building.


----------



## Not Sure (Dec 5, 2015)

Pattern Change 16 days and counting!!!!!!
http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-december-5-2015


----------



## JDMRoma (Dec 5, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Pattern Change 16 days and counting!!!!!!
> http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-december-5-2015



Early Christmas Present !


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----------



## catsup948 (Dec 5, 2015)

Looks very tranquil for the northeast until then.  Days and days of nice sunshine and mild temps.  It likely will be cold enough at night to make snow though.


----------



## dlague (Dec 6, 2015)

That was interesting to listen too!  Surprised no one is biting on what he talks about at the end.


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----------



## Puck it (Dec 6, 2015)

dlague said:


> That was interesting to listen too!  Surprised no one is biting on what he talks about at the end.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


99% of the scientific community agrees.



they just don't tell what they agree one!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 7, 2015)

Northeastern warmth not relinquishing its' grip.


----------



## dlague (Dec 7, 2015)

It looks like we have another week and a half of this.  At least it is cold enough by night in the northern parts of New England!


----------



## JDMRoma (Dec 7, 2015)

May have to burn a few more K 2 Fer s next weekend !


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----------



## andrec10 (Dec 7, 2015)

This just sucks! We are being punished for the last 2 years! Lol...


----------



## billski (Dec 7, 2015)

I don't give a crap about the weather until January 1st.  December is always one of those months where you win big or lose big.  I'm moving my modus operundi to a start late end late regimen.  Ski through the last day.  Go for deep.  Milk the woods at Jay until the end.  
Remember that year when December was big and January sucked?   I'll take the opposite.  I have so many family and work commitments in December that I miss out every year.


----------



## Puck it (Dec 7, 2015)

billski said:


> I don't give a crap about the weather until January 1st.  December is always one of those months where you win big or lose big.  I'm moving my modus operundi to a start late end late regimen.  Ski through the last day.  Go for deep.  Milk the woods at Jay until the end.
> Remember that year when December was big and January sucked?   I'll take the opposite.  I have so many family and work commitments in December that I miss out every year.


We don't care about your committments, some of us want to ski from Late Oct. to Mid May.


----------



## VTKilarney (Dec 7, 2015)

billski said:


> I don't give a crap about the weather until January 1st.  December is always one of those months where you win big or lose big.  I'm moving my modus operundi to a start late end late regimen.  Ski through the last day.  Go for deep.  Milk the woods at Jay until the end.
> Remember that year when December was big and January sucked?   I'll take the opposite.  I have so many family and work commitments in December that I miss out every year.


While I generally agree with this statement, my biggest concern is that if we don't get decent natural snowfall, the resorts have lost a month of snowmaking weather.


----------



## slatham (Dec 7, 2015)

Be mindful of that NOAA graphic. That is simply the probability of it being above/below normal. Nothing about magnitude. That said the models that spit out an actual forecast are showing consistent warmth for the next week+. Maybe we get a step down to cooler temps later in the month but I've seen nothing that even hints at normal, much less below normal. Now of course it can snow like mad and be above normal!


----------



## yeggous (Dec 7, 2015)

Puck it said:


> We don't care about your committments, some of us want to ski from Late Oct. to Mid May.



+1


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----------



## dlague (Dec 7, 2015)

Puck it said:


> We don't care about your committments, some of us want to ski from Late Oct. to Mid May.



Damn straight!


----------



## dlague (Dec 8, 2015)

Watching WMUR last night and they showed the list of dates where the latest snowfall happened and in 2000 it was in January.  Not sure what that season was like since I was not skiing at that time due to a winter hating ex.  I did snowmobile and southern NH sucked IIRC.  Hoping this does not happen again.


----------



## deadheadskier (Dec 8, 2015)

Puck it said:


> We don't care about your committments, some of us want to ski from Late Oct. to Mid May.



Seriously


----------



## dlague (Dec 8, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> Seriously



Is that with a question mark or and exclamation point.  Two different connotations.


----------



## deadheadskier (Dec 8, 2015)

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!f'n!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Puck it (Dec 8, 2015)

Can we put Billski a temporary ban until his attitude changes since he has so many commitments until after the first of the year.  He is bringing the vibe around here.


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 8, 2015)

Puck it said:


> Can we put Billski a temporary ban until his attitude changes since he has so many commitments until after the first of the year.  He is bringing the vibe around here.



Ha ha I have very few plans to ski winter to but still happy for others that can get out and enjoy skiing snowboarding or what ever happiness the mountains you like to due!


----------



## deadheadskier (Dec 8, 2015)

Puck it said:


> Can we put Billski a temporary ban until his attitude changes since he has so many commitments until after the first of the year.  He is bringing the vibe around here.



Karma is a bitch.  He'll get a dead battery on a powder day for the blasphemous comments.


----------



## dlague (Dec 8, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!f'n!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Phew!


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 8, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> Karma is a bitch.  He'll get a dead battery on a powder day for the blasphemous comments.


----------



## Puck it (Dec 8, 2015)

I say we all put Billski on our ignore lists until mid January when he decides to get out of under his rock and ski.


----------



## skiberg (Dec 8, 2015)

Here is the latest I am getting.  I don't think this is a surprise to anyone and is consistent with everyone else. Looks like we need to just hope that Christmas week is not a complete washout. 

*Day 6-10Discussion:*

The wheels of change in this case simply mean cooling from near record levels.It is still going to be warmer than normal in much of the central and easternstates, still well above east of the Mississippi into at least early next weekpossibly longer. We do find some small cool anomalies in the west, especiallySW. Canada also cools a little compared to this week. None of this really risesto the level of a winter pattern, it is still more late autumn.


----------



## wa-loaf (Dec 8, 2015)

billski said:


> I don't give a crap about the weather until January 1st.  December is always one of those months where you win big or lose big.  I'm moving my modus operundi to a start late end late regimen.  Ski through the last day.  Go for deep.  Milk the woods at Jay until the end.
> Remember that year when December was big and January sucked?   I'll take the opposite.  I have so many family and work commitments in December that I miss out every year.



Definitely deserve a time-out for lameness!


----------



## Tin (Dec 8, 2015)

Next week is getting interesting. Where is MadMadWorld? We need to sacrifice a virgin.


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 8, 2015)

Tin said:


> Next week is getting interesting. Where is MadMadWorld? We need to sacrifice a virgin.



How about sacrificing a Radical Muslim! Why waste a perfectly good virgin!


----------



## Puck it (Dec 8, 2015)

andrec10 said:


> How about sacrificing a Radical Muslim! Why waste a perfectly good virgin!


Why only one?  Bring on the next Ice Age.


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 8, 2015)

Puck it said:


> Why only one?  Bring on the next Ice Age.



Or we could just sacrifice them all. We would be skiing straight thru for years!


----------



## ss20 (Dec 8, 2015)

andrec10 said:


> How about sacrificing a Radical Muslim! Why waste a perfectly good virgin!



I don't follow politics, nor do I really get offended at ethics, but I know a :flame: war and a  post when I see one, lol.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 8, 2015)

We're finally going to get some legitimately cold weather in the 10 to 14 day range.  Looks pretty certain.  Back away from the ledges.


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 9, 2015)

http://www.madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-gory-details-of-bad-to-worse-this.html?m=1


----------



## JDMRoma (Dec 9, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> We're finally going to get some legitimately cold weather in the 10 to 14 day range.  Looks pretty certain.  Back away from the ledges.



Thank you ....blood pressure should regulate by then 


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----------



## Tin (Dec 9, 2015)

Puck it said:


> Why only one?  Bring on the next Ice Age.



Next time I go to Cannon I'm so rocking my sheik costume.


----------



## Puck it (Dec 9, 2015)

Tin said:


> Next time I go to Cannon I'm so rocking my shrek costume.


Fixed it for you!


----------



## VTKilarney (Dec 9, 2015)

NOAA is still not seeing cold weather coming in their 8-14 day outlook:


----------



## timmyc (Dec 9, 2015)

...


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 9, 2015)

ScottySkis said:


> http://www.madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-gory-details-of-bad-to-worse-this.html?m=1



Well....thats sad! I guess I will be on my rocks skis for awhile!


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 9, 2015)

Latest EC ensembles give a semblance of hope around the 20th, but this could very well just be noise.


----------



## Rowsdower (Dec 9, 2015)

They keep pushing that pattern change back every day. Was Christmas, now its mid January... 

Soon it will be next December :roll:


----------



## Not Sure (Dec 9, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> They keep pushing that pattern change back every day. Was Christmas, now its mid January...
> 
> Soon it will be next December :roll:



You been hanging with Billski? I think you just said  "Winter has been cancelled!!"


 :-o:-o:-o:-o:-o:-o:-o:-o:flame::flame::flame::flame::flame::flame::flame::flame::flame:


----------



## Bostonian (Dec 10, 2015)

How about this, I need to buy a new lawn mower for the spring... maybe if I get it in the next week or so, it will piss Ullr off so much, the Great Ullr will have consistent dumps through April?


----------



## Tin (Dec 10, 2015)




----------



## Abubob (Dec 10, 2015)




----------



## yeggous (Dec 10, 2015)

Abubob said:


>



This is close to the truth. I am not holding my breath yet.


----------



## Tin (Dec 10, 2015)

yeggous said:


> This is close to the truth. I am not holding my breath yet.



I knew you would ruin my happiness after I posted that.


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 10, 2015)

Tin said:


>



Yes Please!


----------



## WoodCore (Dec 10, 2015)

Bostonian said:


> How about this, I need to buy a new lawn mower for the spring... maybe if I get it in the next week or so, it will piss Ullr off so much, the Great Ullr will have consistent dumps through April?




Buy 2!


----------



## skiberg (Dec 10, 2015)

Looks like a few forecasts are starting to come into line with at least some downward swing of the thermometer. We are all hopeful, but I am trying not to get too excited yet. Lets see what they are seeing early next week.

*Day 6-10 Discussion:*

The near record warmth ends and there is a clear signal now of trending colder.It looks strong enough to go well below normal under the upper low over theRockies. But getting below normal east of the Rockies may prove to be moredifficult as I just don't see a bold move east of this feature. It won't likelyhappen next week. Instead some of these 60s and 70s for highs become 40s and50's which is still tame by December standards. The downward trend shouldcontinue but prove to be slow after this period as well.


----------



## skiberg (Dec 10, 2015)

Here is Tim Kelley's take

" perhaps a real dose of winter arrives next week. Seriously... confidence is building that we get into more of a lasting colder pattern, with a chance for precipitation every couple days. Though not guaranteed, odds favor that precipitation being flaky after next Tuesday."


----------



## skiberg (Dec 10, 2015)

I really have no idea what the hell I am doing when it comes to weather forecasting. I just like to see what the majority of forecasters are saying looks "most likely". They have been suggesting a cool down towards the end of the month for some time and as we near it they are refining consistent forecasts, so it sounds like we have a reasonable shot of this coming to fruition.


----------



## yeggous (Dec 10, 2015)

skiberg said:


> I really have no idea what the hell I am doing when it comes to weather forecasting. I just like to see what the majority of forecasters are saying looks "most likely". They have been suggesting a cool down towards the end of the month for some time and as we near it they are refining consistent forecasts, so it sounds like we have a reasonable shot of this coming to fruition.



A cool down in late December? You can set your calendar to it! It's called winter.

As far as next week goes, the west get cool and we might get a bit less blow torch. No cold to be found.


----------



## 180 (Dec 10, 2015)

Possible nor easter according to weatherbell on the 20th


----------



## catsup948 (Dec 10, 2015)

It only takes one storm to flip December around.  It's not a month I ever expect much out of.


----------



## ss20 (Dec 10, 2015)

I have a weekend at Mount Snow booked over the 19th and 20th.  Get your powder skis ready for the 2ft coming December 21st


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 10, 2015)

ss20 said:


> I have a weekend at Mount Snow booked over the 19th and 20th.  Get your powder skis ready for the 2ft coming December 21st



Whatever it takes! Do I need to put my Patio furniture back out?


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 10, 2015)

Here's my take: 

The pattern is not "flipping" in around 10 days per-se but the ridiculous ridge which was creating the blowtorch will begin to break down. I am not expecting the PNA and the rest of the Pacific to flip to a favorable spot until January, but as we all know: a marginal atmosphere could go either way. Right now it is at the worst possible scenario (Pig ridge flushing warm heights into the northeast) and for the future it's looking like it may edge on the positive side (Zonal flow of lukewarm pacific air allowing for moisture and the occasional cold shot. Time this perfectly and we know what happens). Just don't expect any longterm cold until January. We need a full shakeup to do that, not just some transient changes.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 10, 2015)

Best case scenario right here. We need to time those shortwaves of energy just right to avoid a 40*F rainer with rotting, stale pacific air.


----------



## skiberg (Dec 10, 2015)

When you say January will get cold is that because of a potential weather pattern change or just because that's what happens in January?


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 10, 2015)

skiberg said:


> When you say January will get cold is that because of a potential weather pattern change or just because that's what happens in January?



Potential major pattern change. Strong El Nino's typically start off warm in December and have a major pattern change for cold in January. There are hints at this change already, but 3+ weeks out is a crapshoot at this point.


----------



## catsup948 (Dec 11, 2015)

skiberg said:


> Looks like we have a major La Niña coming. I think La Niña years are like El Niño years, in that they are unpredictable and prone to periods of warmth and cold. In other words I think they are inconsistent as well, but we really need a pro to speak to this.



La Nina sometimes follows big El Nino.  I know little about it, but doing a little research I'm intrigued. Over the last ten years 2007-08 and 2010-11 were la Nina winters.  Both were very good snowfall winters with 07-08 being noteworthy for northern New England and January 2011 being pretty epic for many.  Another note is that those two la Nina winters followed after strong El Nino winters. 2006-2007, 09-10 both had decent 2nd halfs with some big storms, Valentine's 07, St Pattys 07 and the infamous Snowicane in 2010.


----------



## deadheadskier (Dec 11, 2015)

At this point, I'm just hoping for a repeat of 07'.  Fall 06 was the worst start to a season I can recall (though this one is closing in fast), but Spring 07 was the best I can remember hands down.  Large holiday storms through Patriots day and colder than normal temps made for many days in April where it was skiing like February.


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 11, 2015)

http://www.ilsnow.com/2015/12/10/winter-missing/

Some some Mary or take some anti depressants before reading above.


----------



## yeggous (Dec 11, 2015)

I have good news for anyone. There continues to be intermittent support for a big inland snow next weekend if everything aligns just right. But it would be short lived good news.

I am starting to wonder what places like Burke and Attitash are going to do. If they can't open yet I don't see them doing so for next weekend. Given that next weekend starts the Christmas period, this is going to hurt.


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----------



## Tin (Dec 11, 2015)




----------



## yeggous (Dec 11, 2015)

Tin said:


>



Yes, the 06Z run brings it. A day or two ago a couple consecutive runs were similiar. Don't get caught up on this yet. The fact that this is in and out a week in advance just says there is a chance.





This all depends on how things phase up. It's unlikely but possible.


----------



## Tin (Dec 11, 2015)

We need something to hope for. Those amounts are unlikely but anything would help the smaller ski areas for the holiday week.


----------



## catsup948 (Dec 11, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> At this point, I'm just hoping for a repeat of 07'.  Fall 06 was the worst start to a season I can recall (though this one is closing in fast), but Spring 07 was the best I can remember hands down.  Large holiday storms through Patriots day and colder than normal temps made for many days in April where it was skiing like February.



That was an epic run for much of New England.  We had snow on the ground down here well into April.


----------



## ss20 (Dec 11, 2015)

Tin said:


>



Reminds me of that guy on here who spent a week in northeast Canada skiing and we were all shocked at some of the terrain up there.  That's where the jackpot is, with this storm.  

The trip report is somewhere in the March of last year reports.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 11, 2015)

At this point, I'll be thrilled if the woods are open the last week of January.


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 11, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> At this point, I'll be thrilled if the woods are open the last week of January.



Heck, at this point I would be happy with normal snowmaking weather!


----------



## billski (Dec 11, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> At this point, I'll be thrilled if the woods are open the last week of January.



My best woods skiing last year was in March/April at Saddleback.


----------



## ALLSKIING (Dec 11, 2015)

andrec10 said:


> Heck, at this point I would be happy with normal snowmaking weather!



How true and sad is that all at the same time.


----------



## Rowsdower (Dec 11, 2015)

ss20 said:


> Reminds me of that guy on here who spent a week in northeast Canada skiing and we were all shocked at some of the terrain up there.  That's where the jackpot is, with this storm.
> 
> The trip report is somewhere in the March of last year reports.



Gotta learn French and move to Gaspé.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 11, 2015)

Brutal


----------



## catsup948 (Dec 12, 2015)

Looks like a whole lot of rain Monday night and more Friday.  But it seems maybe some good snowmaking weather next weekend.


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 12, 2015)

Talked with the Snowmaking manager at Hunter today and he has never seen a stretch of weather like this. At least next weekend looks hopeful for decent snowmaking.


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 13, 2015)

Here's a good summary...

https://youtu.be/4yumIg2t1k8


----------



## catsup948 (Dec 13, 2015)

andrec10 said:


> Here's a good summary...
> 
> https://youtu.be/4yumIg2t1k8



Good stuff!  Gives me hope.


----------



## mriceyman (Dec 14, 2015)

The mountains better make as much as possible next weekend.. It looks to warm up the same or even more than the current stretch.. Pretty unreal


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----------



## bigbog (Dec 14, 2015)

Looks like northern Maine might be the lone recipient of any of the snow Tuesday thru early Wed AM.
Agree...that system flow hasn't changed much....west side of the Rockies getting the goods.


----------



## steamboat1 (Dec 14, 2015)

I wouldn't be surprised if you see a few areas that are open now close before the end of this week. Trail counts will be reduced at those remaining. It's going to get ugly out there.


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 14, 2015)

steamboat1 said:


> I wouldn't be surprised if you see a few areas that are open now close before the end of this week. Trail counts will be reduced at those remaining. It's going to get ugly out there.



Going to get ugly. Its already FUGLY! but we are all upright and healthy!


----------



## The Sneak (Dec 14, 2015)

I have not even pulled my skis out of storage yet...and I usually get them tuned ~Columbus wknd. 
It was ~65 F at my house Saturday. Went for a bike ride. Bizarre to ride by the beach and stop at the sea wall to feel the warm sun on me in mid freaking December. :mad


----------



## steamboat1 (Dec 14, 2015)

The Sneak said:


> I have not even pulled my skis out of storage yet...and I usually get them tuned ~Columbus wknd.
> It was ~65 F at my house Saturday. Went for a bike ride. Bizarre to ride by the beach and stop at the sea wall to feel the warm sun on me in mid freaking December. :mad



Yep I was at the beach Sat. fishing. Still a few striped bass & blues around. I've never seen blues still around this late. Herring fishing on the bay side is good too. At least I got a couple of decent skiing days in the first week of Dec. I was planning to go again later this week for a few days but might change my mind. My skis are in the shop by Killington all tuned & ready to go.


----------



## Abubob (Dec 14, 2015)




----------



## dlague (Dec 14, 2015)

As far as I can see starting Tuesday night, Snow making temps return, marginal at best but higher elevation feasible.  Starting this weekend though it looks like a solid march to Christmas.  Saturday will be interesting at Cannon since the temps will not go above freezing.  Hopefully grooming is up to the task otherwise potential for bullet proof will be high.


----------



## skiberg (Dec 14, 2015)

Unfortunately I am not seeing anything that suggests snowmaking temps at Cannon will hang around after the upcoming weekend. In fact I have read it will become even warmer then than it is now. 


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----------



## ss20 (Dec 14, 2015)

Greens, ADK's, and the Catskill's could see measurable snow Friday and Saturday.  That's something.


----------



## skibumski (Dec 14, 2015)

Unfortunate to make my first post like this but this is starting to get pretty depressing.











25+F over average expected for Christmas on the European model for basically all of the Northeast, 99% confidence 10 days out.


----------



## timmyc (Dec 14, 2015)

...


----------



## skiberg (Dec 14, 2015)

That horrible forecast is consistent with what I have read at many blogs and forecast sites. Looks like it's getting to be more certain that we can forget xmas week this year.


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----------



## Rowsdower (Dec 14, 2015)

So, what's the story on years that follow big El Nino events?


----------



## dlague (Dec 14, 2015)

skibumski said:


> Unfortunate to make my first post like this but this is starting to get pretty depressing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That warming is only for a day or two otherwise 30's and low 40' during the day on either side.



timmyc said:


> for cannon, accuweather is showing a low of 22 on Friday night. After Friday, the low temp is not projected to go any higher than 21 through the end of January. I realize things can change and that a six week projection is of limited value. But still, isn't it relatively safe to say that nighttime snowmaking is projected to return for good on Friday night?
> 
> If that's true, at least there's that, right?



yes snow making temps are looking good long term.

Starting Friday - you will see the terrain expansion pace pick up rather quick from this point on.


----------



## Warp Daddy (Dec 14, 2015)

Hoidays look to be unseasonably warm  xmas week is toast. Long range beyond that looks bleak too except i put very low credence beyond 7 day forecast . 

Sure glad i did my hip surgery in Oct THIS season and didnt delay it into the new year , i have missed absolutely nothing so far  and from the looks of it not mush into mis January . Feel bad for evertyone who is jonesing , i feel yah bros !,


----------



## dlague (Dec 14, 2015)

skibumski said:


> Unfortunate to make my first post like this but this is starting to get pretty depressing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





timmyc said:


> for cannon, accuweather is showing a low of 22 on Friday night. After Friday, the low temp is not projected to go any higher than 21 through the end of January. I realize things can change and that a six week projection is of limited value. But still, isn't it relatively safe to say that nighttime snowmaking is projected to return for good on Friday night?
> 
> If that's true, at least there's that, right?





Warp Daddy said:


> Hoidays look to be unseasonably warm  xmas week is toast. Long range beyond that looks bleak too except i put very low credence beyond 7 day forecast .
> 
> Sure glad i did my hip surgery in Oct THIS season and didnt delay it into the new year , i have missed absolutely nothing so far  and from the looks of it not mush into mis January . Feel bad for evertyone who is jonesing , i feel yah bros !,



You are right about anything beyond 7 days but I am seeing things a little more optimistically and see improvements in terms of cold air at night.  We shall see!


----------



## yeggous (Dec 14, 2015)

dlague said:


> You are right about anything beyond 7 days but I am seeing things a little more optimistically and see improvements in terms of cold air at night.  We shall see!



It's going to be blow torch again next week. We absolutely have skill forecasting temperature 10 days out. This is just painful.


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----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 14, 2015)

Dlague is still at Stage 1.


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 14, 2015)

ss20 said:


> Greens, ADK's, and the Catskill's could see measurable snow Friday and Saturday.  That's something.



Can you  post a link for Catskills Friday night sniw fall please? How much like few inches or feet, ? Hope it happens for ne and everyone here.


----------



## dlague (Dec 14, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Dlague is still at Stage 1.



Well I would say Stage 3.  I'd ski anything for a few more runs!  Even if it is one run.

While everyone else is at Stage 4 - Not going to ski this season, why do I ski in the first place!  What's the point!


----------



## Puck it (Dec 14, 2015)

I ski because I drink.  I drink because I ski. Where do I fit in?


----------



## dlague (Dec 14, 2015)

Puck it said:


> I ski because I drink.  I drink because I ski. Where do I fit in?



Stage 5


----------



## ss20 (Dec 14, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Dlague is still at Stage 1.



I've felt all of these at one point or another this month :-o


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 14, 2015)

I am at Stage 5....


----------



## dlague (Dec 14, 2015)

record-alaska-storm-cold-snow-east-us

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/record-alaska-storm-cold-snow-east-us/54174108


----------



## JDMRoma (Dec 14, 2015)

I'm between a 2 and 4 !
Deciding on which pair of skis will I sacrifice and ski on what ever is available. It's that or go back to water skiing !!


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 14, 2015)

I'm lingering back and forth between 4 & 5.   Call it 4.5.


----------



## deadheadskier (Dec 14, 2015)

I would need a western trip to something decent right now to attain a 5.  As that isn't in the cards this year, I'm stuck on 4.


----------



## Abubob (Dec 14, 2015)




----------



## Rowsdower (Dec 14, 2015)

2017 will make up for it. 2017 will make up for it. 2017 will make up for it...


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 14, 2015)

The last 2 years spoiled us....


----------



## Not Sure (Dec 14, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> 2017 will make up for it. 2017 will make up for it. 2017 will make up for it...



Sounds very familiar.....Eagles fans and Pa. Skiers


----------



## steamboat1 (Dec 14, 2015)

While it is depressing to an extent it's far to early to worry. I'll just have to make it up by skiing 4-5 days in a row when it gets good (it will) as opposed to 2-3 days.


----------



## catsup948 (Dec 14, 2015)

Things can change.  It will be curious to see if there any signs of a consistent pattern change by mid Jan.  If not we should start getting concerned.


----------



## catsup948 (Dec 14, 2015)

I'm in stage 4.  This weather blows!


----------



## steamboat1 (Dec 14, 2015)

steamboat1 said:


> I wouldn't be surprised if you see a few areas that are open now close before the end of this week. Trail counts will be reduced at those remaining. It's going to get ugly out there.


After just a quick look around Bromley, Hunter & Belleayre closed. Snowdon quad at K closed. This before the rain even arrived.


----------



## Riverveteran (Dec 14, 2015)

We should be concerned.  No Xmas - resorts will be losing a huge % of annual revenues, we could see the NELSAP list grow, coupled with higher ticket prices and fewer capital improvements at the bigger resorts.


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 14, 2015)

Ok, I am back at stage 4.....


----------



## mriceyman (Dec 14, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Sounds very familiar.....Eagles fans and Pa. Skiers



Below the belt


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## billski (Dec 14, 2015)




----------



## Rowsdower (Dec 15, 2015)

That pattern change is looking more likely by new year. Seasonable temperatures coming back. Fingers crossed folks!


----------



## Rushski (Dec 15, 2015)

Can't go by what we have or haven't had yet...  Last December, 27th to be exact I was playing doubles beach volleyball in the low 50s for temps...  

Would be nice to have some snow now, but if we're patient...


----------



## dlague (Dec 15, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> That pattern change is looking more likely by new year. Seasonable temperatures coming back. Fingers crossed folks!



This weekend looks very promissing!


----------



## skiberg (Dec 15, 2015)

I cant get excited by that very brief blast of arctic air. Temps are going to be off the charts warm all of next week. They will loose a fair amount of any snow they make.


----------



## dlague (Dec 15, 2015)

skiberg said:


> I cant get excited by that very brief blast of arctic air. Temps are going to be off the charts warm all of next week. They will loose a fair amount of any snow they make.



But nights will be cold enough to continue snowmaking.  The worst days will be the 25th and 26th but still cold nights.


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 15, 2015)

http://www.xionia.com/gifs/Where is the snow.gif


----------



## drjeff (Dec 15, 2015)

dlague said:


> But nights will be cold enough to continue snowmaking.  The worst days will be the 25th and 26th but still cold nights.




Unfortunately with air masses like we have this week, and likely next week as well, the humidity and inversion factors could very well make snowmaking at best very marginal production wise, and at worst, not happening at all.  

Long range "hope" (and we all know how much faith you can realistically put into a forecast that is over 2 weeks out  ) is that something resembling "real" winter air arrives and stays for a while AFTER New Years Weekend

Unfortunately across all of New England this important for business holiday week approaching, we may be looking at a situation where the number of total ski areas closed is greater than the number of open ski areas


----------



## skiberg (Dec 15, 2015)

Unfortunately, your prognostication sounds more in line with what I have been reading. I am not confident that we will have many opportunities to make snow Christmas week.


----------



## Bostonian (Dec 15, 2015)

Looking at some of the next 7-10 day forecasts - on Xmas Eve it will be near 65 in and around Boston.


----------



## deadheadskier (Dec 15, 2015)

My big concern at this point is with the assumed financial bloodbath the resorts will experience over the holidays, how does that affect the rest of season operations?

Will snowmaking budgets get slashed at numerous areas and available terrain be limited most of the rest of the season short of help from natural snow.  Areas closing early in spring to mitigate losses.  I'm sure K will still go deep, but many others may close earlier than normal.


----------



## skiberg (Dec 15, 2015)

I agree, its going to be a blood bath. I think like 30% of total revenue is related to Christmas Week. Going to be a lot of financial fallout from this. This is one year when Cannon is lucky. Any loss goes in to the general fund and will have much less if any impact upon them.


----------



## wtcobb (Dec 15, 2015)

It'll be hard on other businesses in the area, too. No visitors means no shoppers and diners. Rough times for businesses in the north country...

The warmth down south compounds the problem. When it's sunny and warm in Boston people don't get the "itch" to ski, even if the mountains are open.


----------



## Bostonian (Dec 15, 2015)

This says it all.


----------



## billski (Dec 15, 2015)

what does "cold" mean?  40's?  Won't take much to reach the "coldest day of December"

Back to stage one.


----------



## skiberg (Dec 15, 2015)

[h=3]*Still no change at Tremblant. Can you imagine. December 15 and no measurable snow yet for the year!!!*

Snowfall[/h]as of 12/15/15 @1:22 pm EST                 0cm 24 Hrs
0cm 48 Hrs
0cm 7 Days
0cm                        Season Total


----------



## Edd (Dec 15, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> My big concern at this point is with the assumed financial bloodbath the resorts will experience over the holidays, how does that affect the rest of season operations?
> 
> Will snowmaking budgets get slashed at numerous areas and available terrain be limited most of the rest of the season short of help from natural snow.  Areas closing early in spring to mitigate losses.  I'm sure K will still go deep, but many others may close earlier than normal.



Additional issues include keeping snow makers, lifties, and others around while having minimal (if any) tasks to give them. All right before Xmas hits.


----------



## billski (Dec 15, 2015)

We had a really bad Christmas season a number of years back.  Luckily they made up for it with the President's week and ended up breaking even.   Investments for the following season would be limited I expect.


----------



## billski (Dec 15, 2015)




----------



## goldsbar (Dec 15, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> My big concern at this point is with the assumed financial bloodbath the resorts will experience over the holidays, how does that affect the rest of season operations?
> 
> Will snowmaking budgets get slashed at numerous areas and available terrain be limited most of the rest of the season short of help from natural snow.  Areas closing early in spring to mitigate losses.  I'm sure K will still go deep, but many others may close earlier than normal.



Same concern.  No idea what some of the Poconos resorts will do. Tough enough for them to make snow in a decent year.


----------



## billski (Dec 15, 2015)




----------



## Tin (Dec 15, 2015)

Keep your legs in shape folks. When winter arrives, it will be good. No point in looking at forecasts until after Christmas.


----------



## john1200c (Dec 15, 2015)

skiberg said:


> I agree, its going to be a blood bath. I think like 30% of total revenue is related to Christmas Week. Going to be a lot of financial fallout from this. This is one year when Cannon is lucky. Any loss goes in to the general fund and will have much less if any impact upon them.



I wonder if the "for profit" areas hedge with some sort of weather derivative?  I would if I were in the business...


----------



## billski (Dec 15, 2015)

Tin said:


> Keep your legs in shape folks. When winter arrives, it will be good. No point in looking at forecasts until after Christmas.


  In the gym every day.  Last think I need is getting out there and not being able to handle it!


----------



## VTKilarney (Dec 15, 2015)

Oddly enough, the ski areas that haven't even tried to make snow (I'm looking at you Magic Mountain) may fare better than areas that have.  I find it hard to believe that many areas are making money when you factor in the cost of all of the snow that is about to melt.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 15, 2015)

Winter Starts Now?

That Warren Miller guy's fully of ****.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 15, 2015)

VTKilarney said:


> Oddly enough, the ski areas that haven't even tried to make snow (I'm looking at you Magic Mountain) may fare better than areas that have.



I mentioned this several weeks back, that I was surprised when resorts in the Poconos and even the Cats to a certain extent, were bothering with snowmaking.  The degree to which we've blowtorch'ed is surprising, but the fact we're WAY out of the 30s and 40s is not.  IMO, many resorts need to become more sophisticated in terms of predicting the weather.



john1200c said:


> I wonder if the "for profit" areas hedge with some sort of weather derivative?  I would if I were in the business...



That's a great question.  My guess is, if they do it likely relates to energy pricing.


----------



## drjeff (Dec 15, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> I mentioned this several weeks back, that I was surprised when resorts in the Poconos and even the Cats to a certain extent, were bothering with snowmaking.  The degree to which we've blowtorch'ed is surprising, but the fact we're WAY out of the 30s and 40s is not.  IMO, many resorts need to become more sophisticated in terms of predicting the weather.



As far as weather forecasting has come, it's still such an inexact science that there are times, especially early season when the push to get as much terrain open for the Christmas/New Years Holiday week is so great, that a resort just has to take chances at times, since I think we've all seen forecast where it look promising to get a wet bulb temp below 28 degrees where it stays at 29 or 30 and also times when it looks like the wet bulb won't get below 30 and it ends up at 27.

If it's close mid season when a resort has 85-90% of it's desired base snow down for the season and your looking at a marginal forecast, then it's easy to make the call not to charge the lines, early season, not so easy, and I think that every GM and Mtn Ops person out there when they make the call to fire up the system early season does so with the knowledge that it very well could melt out before the product gets used... The ski industry isn't for the weak of hearts at times for sure!


----------



## ss20 (Dec 15, 2015)

A "disaster" Christmas week would be the December we're currently having with a frigid November that allowed all areas north of NJ to open.  Then to have all of it melt would be financially devastating.  but most mountains south of the VT/NH/Mass line haven't made snow at all or only did a night or two of snowmaking.  Not going to lose a lot of $$$ there.  Hopefully they were able to train new snowmakers that night and new instructors the next day.  

While it's going to be a terrible Christmas for skiers, the financials*could've* been worse.


----------



## VTKilarney (Dec 15, 2015)

Here is a good primer on northeast winter weather forecasting:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2...predictions/cbUpaZTK2AvDOPTnFGnT4J/story.html


----------



## dlague (Dec 15, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Winter Starts Now?
> 
> That Warren Miller guy's fully of ****.



Haha true!


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## Not Sure (Dec 15, 2015)

dlague said:


> Haha true!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Well ...West coast anyway , at least they are getting some lovin . They paid there dues the last few years.


----------



## Cat in January (Dec 15, 2015)

Was looking to get up to Vt on 12/21 and 22 as part of a Christmas present for my son (he gets to bring a friend).  Was hoping for a good word on next Monday's and Tuesday's weather, but it sounds like even snow making may be out.  Drat 

This place seems to have the most weather talk I can understand as it relates to skiing-this forum is why I joined the board.  Would you cancel plans based on the weather?


----------



## Tin (Dec 15, 2015)

Just cancelled mine.


----------



## VTKilarney (Dec 15, 2015)

Cat in January said:


> Would you cancel plans based on the weather?


Absolutely.  For as optimistic as people are here, the skiing has gotten really bad in the past few days.  Just take a look at the Killington webcam.


----------



## Cat in January (Dec 15, 2015)

Meant to say the tickets are comps for all 3 of us and it does not look like I will have another chance to use them this winter if that makes any difference.  Would be ok with early season conditions especially as it is midweek, but not ok with bleak.


----------



## Puck it (Dec 15, 2015)

Tin said:


> Just cancelled mine.


Wife and I cancelled our weekend and luckily got a full refund. I am still skiing on Sunday though.


----------



## ss20 (Dec 15, 2015)

Cat in January said:


> Was looking to get up to Vt on 12/21 and 22 as part of a Christmas present for my son (he gets to bring a friend).  Was hoping for a good word on next Monday's and Tuesday's weather, but it sounds like even snow making may be out.  Drat
> 
> This place seems to have the most weather talk I can understand as it relates to skiing-this forum is why I joined the board.  Would you cancel plans based on the weather?



Not a chance.  2 days at Mount Snow this weekend.  It's my latest first day in years, and I got new skis, and I'm getting some "big mountain" skiing done before "work" (ski instructing) keeps me on the bunny hill for two and a half months 

It's not terrible either.  One intermediate and two beginner trails down from the top.  Guns will be blasting the whole weekend, mixing things up, and maybe an inch or two of natural snow.  

I'm ready...and desperate.


----------



## Cat in January (Dec 15, 2015)

Yeah desperation is part of it.  I have not even seen a snowflake float through the air yet this year. 

Was sure I would be able to use my comps at Sugarbush, Smuggs and Stowe, but it is not looking likely.

Good news is I got my season pass in the mail, Sierra at Lake Tahoe and I hope to see a lot of the mountains on the Powder Alliance.


----------



## drjeff (Dec 15, 2015)

ss20 said:


> Not a chance.  2 days at Mount Snow this weekend.  It's my latest first day in years, and I got new skis, and I'm getting some "big mountain" skiing done before "work" (ski instructing) keeps me on the bunny hill for two and a half months
> 
> It's not terrible either.  One intermediate and two beginner trails down from the top.  Guns will be blasting the whole weekend, mixing things up, and maybe an inch or two of natural snow.
> 
> I'm ready...and desperate.



Hopefully 2 trails off the summit this weekend!! They lost Cascade today as well as Little John (Long John is still "alive" but per the base area webcam they're going to have to find and push some snow onto the small section of Lower Exhibition they're using to get you back to the Bluebird, and there were equally sketchy areas on other parts of Long John during my last run about lunchtime on Sunday  ) Depending on when the snowmaking temps arrive on Friday and how quickly they hopefully get into "good" range, there is a distinct possibility that come Saturday AM, they won't have any top to bottom routes and will just be spinning Canyon Quad and The Heavy Metal Double!!!

If they can't get some SOLID production during what looks to be a 48-60hr window from Friday into Monday and later next week is as warm as they're thinking it could be right now, well frankly I don't want to think about what that could mean for  Mount Snow during Christmas week   

I don't care how potent a snowmaking system is, when you're looking at a few weeks with roughly 2 days of OK snowmaking temps and 5 days of warm with some rain each week, plus often ground that isn't frozen, its not pretty


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 15, 2015)

ss20 said:


> It's not terrible either.  *One intermediate and two beginner trails down from the top.*
> 
> *I'm ready...and desperate.*



Agreed.


----------



## steamboat1 (Dec 15, 2015)

Cat in January said:


> Was looking to get up to Vt on 12/21 and 22 as part of a Christmas present for my son (he gets to bring a friend).  Was hoping for a good word on next Monday's and Tuesday's weather, but it sounds like even snow making may be out.  Drat
> 
> This place seems to have the most weather talk I can understand as it relates to skiing-this forum is why I joined the board.  Would you cancel plans based on the weather?




Nope, I cancelled plans for tomorrow through Fri. & I'm now planning for next Mon. through Wed. Being you have comp tickets why wouldn't you go?


----------



## 180 (Dec 16, 2015)

will be at Killington on Friday, look for report


----------



## billski (Dec 16, 2015)

Doc, Take me back to Feb. 22nd, 1969


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 16, 2015)

*Christmas Eve

*70F in Central Jersey.


----------



## Tin (Dec 16, 2015)

My most memorable radar image. Thunder snow and a neon green night sky from all the lightning.


----------



## Bostonian (Dec 16, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> *Christmas Eve
> 
> *70F in Central Jersey.


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 16, 2015)

http://www.madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2015/12/i-have-no-new-found-love-for-this-years.html?m=1

Looking like this weekend some places including snowy flat ridge in Turrin NY might get snow. Then back to warm to January.


----------



## catsup948 (Dec 16, 2015)

Tin said:


> My most memorable radar image. Thunder snow and a neon green night sky from all the lightning.




There was far more snow inland from that storm than the big one last January.  We picked up 18 in western mass from that one.


----------



## Abubob (Dec 16, 2015)

Friends of mine asked me if this weather is due to global warming. No, I said. It's a normal aberration. Sounds like an oxymoron but it's true. Check out this list. http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=357


----------



## drjeff (Dec 16, 2015)

The Euro for Christmas day is just plain unbelievably crazy!!  

Basically has a summertime Bermuda High set up in the classical location pumping heat Northeast with air at the 5000 ft level just South of Long Island at 65 degrees, which if you use the typically rule of thumb where for every 1000 feet in altitude you take off 5 degrees, would have air with 80 degree plus potential (obviously much cooler sea surface temps of the Atlantic would modify that a but as you get down towards sea level) just South of New England!!!  Ugh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## dlague (Dec 16, 2015)

Abubob said:


> Friends of mine asked me if this weather is due to global warming. No, I said. It's a normal aberration. Sounds like an oxymoron but it's true. Check out this list. http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=357



Funny thing is Those are all times where snow making is no where near the capacity we have today and this year technically tops that at least in terms of the start.  If not as much investment went into snow making there would be very little open today in the east this season so far.


----------



## Quietman (Dec 17, 2015)

Tin said:


> My most memorable radar image. Thunder snow and a neon green night sky from all the lightning.




I will dream of this if I can get to sleep tonight!


----------



## Tin (Dec 17, 2015)

Yea, that 32" at Crotched was pretty amazing. 

The dark blue band that moved from the western RI border to the CT River Valley put down over 8" in an hour. Coventry, CT reported 11" in an hour.


----------



## moresnow (Dec 17, 2015)

Tin said:


> Yea, that 32" at Crotched was pretty amazing.
> 
> The dark blue band that moved from the western RI border to the CT River Valley put down over 8" in an hour. Coventry, CT reported 11" in an hour.



We've clearly reached a new low when the best we can do in the winter forecast thread is dream of winters past.


----------



## wtcobb (Dec 17, 2015)

Gunstock shutting it down until 12/26:



> Mother Nature's El Nino wrath has been tough on  the New England Ski Resorts this December. Unseasonably high temperatures have been challenging the snow  making team. They have been able to squeeze in 3-4 hours on some  evenings whenever the temperatures dip low enough for the guns to blaze.
> 
> To maximize  our snow making efforts the team has decided to keep the mountain  closed this weekend to allow for the best snow and most terrain for the Christmas vacation week. The mountain will stay closed during the week  to preserve the snow surface for optimal skiing and riding. Starting on December 26th the mountain will reopen with as much terrain as the  weather allows!


----------



## mriceyman (Dec 18, 2015)

Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## Tin (Dec 18, 2015)

The block is coming...(eventually).


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 18, 2015)

This is now becoming worrisome.


----------



## Puck it (Dec 18, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> This is now becoming worrisome.


Crap  Now you are really depressing me.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 18, 2015)

Puck it said:


> Crap  Now you are really depressing me.



It gets worse.   Fully month view.



> Jan 18th to Jan 31st time frame is not decided. However,our longest  range most skilled model doesn't show much deviation from the mild  conditions from prior periods.







The good news is, these long-range CFS2 models are often wrong.


----------



## Puck it (Dec 18, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> It gets worse.   Fully month view.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Then stop f'ing depressingme!!!!!!!!!


----------



## JDMRoma (Dec 18, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> It gets worse.   Fully month view.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



if its right were F..n Screwed Bigtime !!!


----------



## Tin (Dec 18, 2015)

Warmer temps =/= no snow.


----------



## john1200c (Dec 18, 2015)

JDMRoma said:


> if its right were F..n Screwed Bigtime !!!



Doesn't this chart imply a 3-4 degree above normal MEAN forecast, which would still allow for plenty of below freezing snowmaking temps?


----------



## Tin (Dec 18, 2015)

john1200c said:


> doesn't this chart imply a 3-4 degree above normal mean forecast, which would still allow for plenty of below freezing snowmaking temps?




Ding! Ding! Ding! And the temps for snowfall.


----------



## dlague (Dec 18, 2015)

john1200c said:


> Doesn't this chart imply a 3-4 degree above normal MEAN forecast, which would still allow for plenty of below freezing snowmaking temps?





Tin said:


> Ding! Ding! Ding! And the temps for snowfall.



Correct!  The average daily high is in the mid twenties during the day and in the teens and single digits at night therefore snow making for sure and storms possibly come in cold enough for snow.  However, it may be borderline some days and precip may not be in solid form.  Lets hope the January thaw for this winter was front loaded and happened in December.


----------



## mriceyman (Dec 18, 2015)

Tin said:


> Warmer temps =/= no snow.



You're quite the visionary lol


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## catsup948 (Dec 18, 2015)

Doesn't the euro look around normal in the long range weeklies?  These models are dumb.


----------



## catsup948 (Dec 18, 2015)

Either way warmer than average temps were expected this winter out here.  Not as warm as we have seen this month but several degrees above average.  In Jan and Feb that still very much could mean snow.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 19, 2015)

While the EURO long ranges look like a return to near normal in about 2 weeks, don't get too caught up yet. The encompassing indexes (MJO, ESNO etc...) are still pretty damn ugly and go into January with little hint of change. I don't mean to be a downer here but these positive signs beginning around day 10 have very little credence within the overall pattern.


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 19, 2015)

http://www.madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2015/12/more-signs-that-we-will-move-from-bad.html?m=1


----------



## ALLSKIING (Dec 19, 2015)

http://www.weatherbell.com/videos/the-saturday-summary-43/


----------



## prsboogie (Dec 19, 2015)

Where the hell is all the Almanac guys!!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 19, 2015)

john1200c said:


> *Doesn't this chart imply a 3-4 degree above normal MEAN forecast*, which would still allow for plenty of below freezing snowmaking temps?



That's in Celsius, which is > 7F difference = bad news because you're getting statistically less opportunity for "snow shots on goal", as well as increased probability for things like rain.   So, yes, there would still be lots of below freezing weather, but it's definitely bad news if it panned out.  Hopefully it's wrong.

On the bright side, models are starting to show some cold temps returning in about 10 days, hopefully it's a pattern flip and not another short-term aberration


----------



## slatham (Dec 20, 2015)

There is hope. Euro and GEF EPS and even CSV2 are showing pattern change starting around the new year.  Even hints at a Sudden Stratospheric Warming over the poles mid to late Jan (which displaces the "polar vortex" to lower latitudes). Will it hold, and will storms and cold meet up to produce dumps? Too early. But its a marked change from what we've had and are looking at for the next couple of days. Lets hope Thursday temps are not seen again until April!


----------



## timmyc (Dec 20, 2015)

...


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 20, 2015)

!!!!!!!!

Hold the phones, we may have something next week.


----------



## Tin (Dec 20, 2015)

Put the bowl down.


----------



## ss20 (Dec 20, 2015)

Boston Bulldog said:


> !!!!!!!!
> 
> Hold the phones, we may have something next week.



Yeah, I called my good friend Noah and told him to get the ark ready.  



If rain were snow, we'd be losing our sh!t right about now.


----------



## billski (Dec 20, 2015)

'NUF SAID.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Dec 21, 2015)

This is unbelievable. What a horrible December.


----------



## Tin (Dec 21, 2015)

Boston Bulldog said:


> This is unbelievable. What a horrible December.



Was hopeful for a Berkshire dump until this morning.


----------



## billski (Dec 21, 2015)

In freaking credible.  Snow ridge video  http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Snow-Dumps-on-Turin-Snow-Ridge-Opens-Trails-363090401.html

<a href="http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Snow-Dumps-on-Turin-Snow-Ridge-Opens-Trails-363090401.html" target="_blank">[video]http://player.bimvid.com/v2/vps/wwny/de2936b503f1e663e325c14320a2d4a10bd07e5e/ref=aHR0cDovL3d3dy53d255dHYuY29tL25ld3MvbG9jYWwvU2  5vdy1EdW1wcy1vbi1UdXJpbi1Tbm93LVJpZGdlLU9wZW5zLVRy  YWlscy0zNjMwOTA0MDEuaHRtbA[/video]


----------



## ALLSKIING (Dec 21, 2015)

Forecast does look much Improved for the start of January. Hopefully it holds.


----------



## billski (Dec 21, 2015)

Latest I heard is it starts between New Year's and MLK weekend, couple good shots during the winter, and most natural snow will happen in February.


----------



## bdfreetuna (Dec 21, 2015)

timmyc said:


> My wife told me this morning that she is concerned about my bad weather induced mental health (I subjected the poor woman to a global warming tirade last night). Thank you for your positivity. It helps with my one day at a time approach...



Global warming? Try El Nino. Did you forget the last two years?

Mental health can be improved by learning about how weather actually works and ignoring the ignoramus circle jerkers meetings in Paris.


----------



## ss20 (Dec 21, 2015)

bdfreetuna said:


> Global warming? Try El Nino. Did you forget the last two years?
> 
> Mental health can be improved by learning about how weather actually works and ignoring the ignoramus circle jerkers meetings in Paris.



Guess it's that time of the month...


----------



## Tin (Dec 21, 2015)

bdfreetuna said:


> Global warming? Try El Nino. Did you forget the last two years?
> 
> Mental health can be improved by learning about how weather actually works and ignoring the ignoramus circle jerkers meetings in Paris.




THE CONTRAILS ARE COMING TO GET YOU!


----------



## ss20 (Dec 21, 2015)

Tin said:


> THE CONTRAILS ARE COMING TO GET YOU!



I was waiting for that :grin:  Couldn't remember if it was Tuna or not.

We love you Tuna, it's just been a long time since we've seen measurable snow and it shows.


----------



## timmyc (Dec 21, 2015)

...


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 22, 2015)

timmyc said:


> No, I did not forget. I understand that weather conditions are inherently variable and produce both good years and bad years for skiers. But I'm not sure why this means I shouldn't acknowledge and be concerned about the long term weather patterns showing rising global temperatures with *potentially devastating consequences for skiers*, not to mention the entire planet.
> 
> I'll just stick with these guys and hope against hope that reason and sanity somehow prevail in the debate over climate change: http://protectourwinters.org/



Even if you believe in Global Warming, there is no real world evidence of "potentially devastating consequences for skiers".   

Disregarding the fact that the infallible Climate Change scientists have been shown to repeatedly overstate the potential warming (unintentionally AND intentionally) that they claim _should_ be occurring over time, the reality is you're currently looking at VERY small changes in temperature.  At some point.......it's going to happen.......surely.....people are going to start to question how completely unreliable the Climate Change scientists models are, and why they haven't been right.  I have no other example I can give you for a hypothesis that is seemingly broken or at very least deeply flawed, yet is allowed to "simmer" in a purgatory of acceptance while we wait for it to be "correct again" at some point in the future.


----------



## Puck it (Dec 22, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Even if you believe in Global Warming, there is no real world evidence of "potentially devastating consequences for skiers".
> 
> Disregarding the fact that the infallible Climate Change scientists have been shown to repeatedly overstate the potential warming (unintentionally AND intentionally) that they claim _should_ be occurring over time, the reality is you're currently looking at VERY small changes in temperature.  At some point.......it's going to happen.......surely.....people are going to start to question how completely unreliable the Climate Change scientists models are, and why they haven't been right.  I have no other example I can give you for a hypothesis that is seemingly broken or at very least deeply flawed, yet is allowed to "simmer" in a purgatory of acceptance while we wait for it to be "correct again" at some point in the future.


95% of the scientists agree but we are never told on what.  People need to read and listen to Richard 
Lindzen


----------



## dlague (Dec 22, 2015)

I have been waiting for one of these discussions!


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## yeggous (Dec 22, 2015)

Puck it said:


> 95% of the scientists agree but we are never told on what.  People need to read and listen to Richard
> Lindzen



Dick Lindzen is a dinosaur, wing nut, and zealot. His daughter has to accompany him when he speaks in public now. If you're going to pick a poster child for the small minority, you should find a better one.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## Puck it (Dec 22, 2015)

yeggous said:


> Dick Lindzen is a dinosaur, wing nut, and zealot. His daughter has to accompany him when he speaks in public now. If you're going to pick a poster child for the small minority, you should find a better one.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


He is 75. And if you are calling him a zealot then the pros are radicals.  The guy has a very calm demeanor and he is not saying we should not do something but rather do it in a way not the destroy economies.  He is just saying that the measures being proposed have a big effect on the US economy for very infinitesimal return.

There are two sides to every story.  Review the data from both sides because the data can represented to give the preparers view especially if it from the media.  Thus my comment on agreeing. 




Oh , and stop drinking the kook-aid, because $7 a gallon gas would kill skiing.


----------



## deadheadskier (Dec 22, 2015)

dlague said:


> I have been waiting for one of these discussions!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Sarcasm??


I think global warming discussions are about the most pointless internet conversations in existence.  They happen over and over again and never once in the history of the intertrons has someone convinced the "other side" to change their point of view.  They infinitely go round and round in circles and always devolve into insults, virtual high fives and people self back patting thinking they've somehow "won."

Case in point. Timmy makes a harmless joke and folks took it as a call to arms.  :lol:

But, hey, if that's the time suck people are into; go for it.  :lol:


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 22, 2015)

http://www.madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2015/12/our-long-awaited-pattern-change-is.html?m=1

Good  news finally after the New Years.


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 22, 2015)

ScottySkis said:


> http://www.madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2015/12/our-long-awaited-pattern-change-is.html?m=1
> 
> Good  news finally after the New Years.



Scotty getting us back on track!


----------



## WJenness (Dec 22, 2015)

This rain and one media outlet calling for a 70 degree (F) Christmas Eve have me annoyed.

Change will come, but for now, Ullr is off my Christmas card list.

-w


----------



## Bostonian (Dec 22, 2015)

I have given up until New Years... I will be in NYC doing the annual Jewish Chinese food celebration for the 25th...


----------



## Puck it (Dec 22, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> Sarcasm??
> 
> 
> I think global warming discussions are about the most pointless internet conversations in existence.  They happen over and over again and never once in the history of the intertrons has someone convinced the "other side" to change their point of view.  They infinitely go round and round in circles and always devolve into insults, virtual high fives and people self back patting thinking they've somehow "won."
> ...


Case in point, I point out a renown scientist in his waning years and he is called a wing nut and zealot.  This is what irritates me to no end with talking about it.


----------



## wa-loaf (Dec 22, 2015)

Just drop your families (and this discussion and head to Utah!)

http://www.google.org/publicalerts/alert?source=now&gl=US&hl=en&aid=d3c69c029b900143


----------



## yeggous (Dec 22, 2015)

Puck it said:


> He is 75. And if you are calling him a zealot then the pros are radicals.  The guy has a very calm demeanor and he is not saying we should not do something but rather do it in a way not the destroy economies.  He is just saying that the measures being proposed have a big effect on the US economy for very infinitesimal return.
> 
> There are two sides to every story.  Review the data from both sides because the data can represented to give the preparers view especially if it from the media.  Thus my comment on agreeing.
> 
> ...



Perhaps zealot is the wrong word. Contrarian may be better. He feeds off his identity as someone who goes against the consensus at every possible point.

He has made some great contributions to science, but most back in the 1970s. Since then his work has been subpar. He's singularly focused on finding the flaws in the work of others rather than contributing novel new research.


----------



## Puck it (Dec 22, 2015)

wa-loaf said:


> Just drop your families (and this discussion and head to Utah!)
> 
> http://www.google.org/publicalerts/alert?source=now&gl=US&hl=en&aid=d3c69c029b900143


I have two free Southwest tix sitting waiting for me to pull the trigger.


----------



## wtcobb (Dec 22, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> I think global warming discussions are about the most pointless internet conversations in existence.  They happen over and over again and never once in the history of the intertrons has someone convinced the "other side" to change their point of view.  They infinitely go round and round in circles and always devolve into insults, virtual high fives and people self back patting thinking they've somehow "won."


----------



## yeggous (Dec 22, 2015)

wtcobb said:


>



That XKCD is classic.


----------



## wtcobb (Dec 22, 2015)

yeggous said:


> That XKCD is classic.



Internet wars continue to prove its timelessness.


----------



## wtcobb (Dec 22, 2015)

I have to come clean for my part in the poor weather. I got new skis. Two pair. 

Luckily I haven't put on my winter tires yet. Otherwise we'd never get snow.

I'm off to buy an SUP, see if I can fix this mess...


----------



## prsboogie (Dec 22, 2015)

And your waiting for what exactly?


----------



## yeggous (Dec 22, 2015)

wtcobb said:


> I have to come clean for my part in the poor weather. I got new skis. Two pair.
> 
> Luckily I haven't put on my winter tires yet. Otherwise we'd never get snow.
> 
> I'm off to buy an SUP, see if I can fix this mess...



At long as we're having a confessional...
I bought snow tires and a new snow blower. I've been thinking about selling my wife's car and getting another SUV. I am very sorry.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## wtcobb (Dec 22, 2015)

Oh man. My snow blower is in for repair/tune up. Forgot about that one. In penance I shall self flagellate with my ski poles.


----------



## Not Sure (Dec 22, 2015)

And I bought AT equipment ... In Pa. !!!LOL that should be a multi year hex .


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 22, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> And I bought AT equipment ... In Pa. !!!LOL that should be a multi year hex .



So its all your fault!


----------



## yeggous (Dec 22, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> And I bought AT equipment ... In Pa. !!!LOL that should be a multi year hex .



Dude, AT gear in Pennsylvania? That is both ballsy and optimistic. Everyone I know who is serious about AT does it in the Presidentials or old CCC trails.


----------



## dlague (Dec 22, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> Sarcasm??



Hell ya! :beer::flag:


----------



## dlague (Dec 22, 2015)

Puck it said:


> Case in point, I point out a renown scientist in his waning years and he is called a wing nut and zealot.  This is what irritates me to no end with talking about it.



Well maybe if you would ditch your FJ and buy something more fuel efficient like a Prius you could be doing your part.  Everybody wants others to take action but not themselves.  

BTW, with gas prices the way they are it is a good time to buy a new SUV.  Cheaper gas prices do less harm right?


----------



## Puck it (Dec 22, 2015)

dlague said:


> Well maybe if you would ditch your FJ and buy something more fuel efficient like a Prius you could be doing your part.  Everybody wants others to take action but not themselves.
> 
> BTW, with gas prices the way they are it is a good time to buy a new SUV.  Cheaper gas prices do less harm right?


Maybe I will buy a big ass dually and drive your ass off the road!!!!


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 22, 2015)

Everyone getting hostile due to the shitty weather......Prius's...NO THANK YOU!


----------



## Rowsdower (Dec 22, 2015)

dlague said:


> Well maybe if you would ditch your FJ and buy something more fuel efficient like a Prius you could be doing your part.  Everybody wants others to take action but not themselves.
> 
> BTW, with gas prices the way they are it is a good time to buy a new SUV.  Cheaper gas prices do less harm right?



Subaru Crosstrek gets 34mpg highway, for instance. Efficiency will only continue to go up. At some point in the future we'll all be driving electric anyway.


----------



## Not Sure (Dec 22, 2015)

yeggous said:


> Dude, AT gear in Pennsylvania? That is both ballsy and optimistic. Everyone I know who is serious about AT does it in the Presidentials or old CCC trails.



I didn't know AT equipment existed until a Tucks trip in 2011, now I'm really into it but tempered by time and family constraints . Done a number of Tucks trips and quite a few local tours the last two years . The lines are out there but being Pa. Finding connected lines without under growth is  the biggest challenge . First descents are everywhere , My father in law lived in a small Pocono town 20 yrs ago , I would stand on his front porch and look at unreachable  ski lines on a mountain  a mile away across a river . 2014 was awesome and I finally got it , after a 2.5 mi skin . Was intense ! It's a full 1k vert with a 30 degree sustained pitch . I didn't get the full vert my touring partner had binding issues but I'll be back! .... Someday


----------



## prsboogie (Dec 22, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> Subaru Crosstrek gets 34mpg highway, for instance. Efficiency will only continue to go up. At some point in the future we'll all be driving electric anyway.



Not until they can get 500-600 miles out of a charge!!


----------



## Whitey (Dec 22, 2015)

prsboogie said:


> Not until they can get 500-600 miles out of a charge!!



 I am as cynical as the next guy about this stuff, but I have to say that after driving my brother-in-law's Tesla - it was pretty damn nice.  Has a very unique feel because there is no transmission.  Much more "high performance" than I expected.   I was almost as impressed with the car as I was with it's price tag.   When the mileage on a charge goes up and the cost goes down - you may be right about the whole electric car thing.  

Of course that then begs the question about how we are going to generate the electricity to recharge all of those cars without replacing the greenhouse gases that we are saving from auto emissions with power plant emissions. . .


----------



## dlague (Dec 22, 2015)

Puck it said:


> Maybe I will buy a big ass dually and drive your ass off the road!!!!



Oh ok - so now resorting to threats - nice!  BTW Dick Lindzen is known for feeding upon an audience that wants to hear a certain message!

Make sure that big ass dually has a 110 outlet!


----------



## dlague (Dec 22, 2015)

Whitey said:


> I am as cynical as the next guy about this stuff, but I have to say that after driving my brother-in-law's Tesla - it was pretty damn nice.  Has a very unique feel because there is no transmission.  Much more "high performance" than I expected.   I was almost as impressed with the car as I was with it's price tag.   When the mileage on a charge goes up and the cost goes down - you may be right about the whole electric car thing.
> 
> Of course that then begs the question about how we are going to generate the electricity to recharge all of those cars without replacing the greenhouse gases that we are saving from auto emissions with power plant emissions. . .



More coal!


----------



## wtcobb (Dec 22, 2015)

prsboogie said:


> Not until they can get 500-600 miles out of a charge!!



Do you drive 500-600 miles without stopping?

Tesla supercharger stations are already popping up in more and more places (Hooksett rest area SB has one). With the Supercharges you can gain an extra 60 miles range with just 10 minutes of charging - about what it takes to fill up a tank of gas. Add in time to use a restroom, buy a snack - you're up over 100 miles added to your range.

https://www.teslamotors.com/findus#...=supercharger,destination charger,&name=03106

The standard chargers take longer, but again on a real road trip you'd stop for meals and longer rest periods. Loon, Sunday River, and Sugarloaf now all have charging stations.


----------



## VTKilarney (Dec 22, 2015)

prsboogie said:


> Not until they can get 500-600 miles out of a charge!!



In cold temperatures.


----------



## wtcobb (Dec 22, 2015)

VTKilarney said:


> In cold temperatures.



First we need the cold temperatures!


----------



## VTKilarney (Dec 22, 2015)

wtcobb said:


> First we need the cold temperatures!



LOL. How true.

I would consider an electric car if I knew that I could get 300 miles under any conditions without sweating it.


----------



## wa-loaf (Dec 22, 2015)

Puck it said:


> I have two free Southwest tix sitting waiting for me to pull the trigger.



What are you waiting for?


----------



## wtcobb (Dec 22, 2015)

VTKilarney said:


> I would consider an electric car if I knew that I could get 300 miles under any conditions without sweating it.



Electric is the only way I'd give up a stick shift, so there's that. The industry isn't where it needs to be for mass adoption yet, but technologies are getting better and better - more storage, faster charging, and more affordable. Tesla's Model 3 should be an interesting entry to the market (expected MSRP ~$30-35K). I'd consider the X if it wasn't saddled with a $70K starting price.


----------



## dlague (Dec 22, 2015)

Electric Utility Industry is itching for this to be more broadly adopted!  With more efficient lighting and appliances as well and solar, electric companies, need that new boost of revenue.  So ... while we need to charge our cars, utility companies will burn the fossil fuels for you to generate the electricity!  Awesome.


----------



## timmyc (Dec 22, 2015)

...


----------



## dlague (Dec 22, 2015)

timmyc said:


> haha - yeah - I'm prone to self-deprecation AND hyperbole, both of which were reflected in my original post... (the tone of the post was also influenced by my depressingly pathetic fail earlier that morning on the slopes of Cannon...). Although I really didn't think that I'd trigger pages of discussion just by making a reference to global warming...



Well now you know!  Anything GW for or against triggers a thread avalanche.


----------



## yeggous (Dec 22, 2015)

Charging the electric cars is actually is easy part. Especially with a smart meter, the car will charge overnight when there is ample excess production and lower spot prices for electric. The ski areas already know that there is a glut of cheap electricity at night, which is just one more reason why they like to make snow overnight. This glut of electricity is especially pronounced in areas with abundant wind power. Wind energy production peaks at night and sometimes drives prices negative overnight.


----------



## Rowsdower (Dec 22, 2015)

dlague said:


> Electric Utility Industry is itching for this to be more broadly adopted!  With more efficient lighting and appliances as well and solar, electric companies, need that new boost of revenue.  So ... while we need to charge our cars, utility companies will burn the fossil fuels for you to generate the electricity!  Awesome.



It's cleaner overall than having millions of internal combustion engines on the road. Besides, electricity generation is getting cleaner year by year as well (at least in the States). More generating capacity is coming online from natural gas and renewables, and its replacing coal plants. What would really help though would be some modern nuclear.


----------



## Not Sure (Dec 22, 2015)

Rowsdower said:


> It's cleaner overall than having millions of internal combustion engines on the road. Besides, electricity generation is getting cleaner year by year as well (at least in the States). More generating capacity is coming online from natural gas and renewables, and its replacing coal plants. What would really help though would be some modern nuclear.



There's alot of resistance in high tension lines and distributon . Lots of efficeny loss until a breaktrough in super conductor technology. Having all the energy that is used in vehicles now travel through powerlines is a huge challenge. You hear of Summertime rolling blackouts on hot days , Dont think the system can support that load anytime soon. 

Q .How does the electric car deal with defrost and low ambient temps? Do they have a heat sysyem to warm the batteries so as not to loose power ? Seems alot of power would be devoted to just keeping the windsheild clear and the interior warm ? 
In Internal combustion these are accomplished as byproduct heat so now you are using energy that would'nt have been needed before?


----------



## ALLSKIING (Dec 22, 2015)

Ummm...what happened to this thread?  I thought we had a bunch of new pages with talks about the forecast.


----------



## ss20 (Dec 22, 2015)

ALLSKIING said:


> Ummm...what happened to this thread?  I thought we had a bunch of new pages with talks about the forecast.



There's been nothing to forecast but r***.  

But that might change after Christmas.


----------



## Not Sure (Dec 22, 2015)

Totally Shocking ....NOT!
http://www.judicialwatch.org/press-...ld-from-congress-in-new-climate-data-scandal/


----------



## wtcobb (Dec 23, 2015)

If only:
https://www.facebook.com/skimag/videos/10153672048992368/


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 25, 2015)

Pattern change looks to be incoming.   Thank god.


----------



## ScottySkis (Dec 26, 2015)

http://www.madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2015/12/good-foundation-laying-snowsleetice.html?m=1

Looking better for sure!


----------



## John W (Dec 28, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Pattern change looks to be incoming.   Thank god.



Pattern change in the conversation on this tread as well.... THANK GOD!!!

Let's go snow!!1


----------



## billski (Dec 28, 2015)

Rochester ny, 2" heavy, transitioned to freezing rain, 10pm


----------



## ss20 (Dec 29, 2015)

Thank God for the New Year.  Snowmaking temps return ~12:01am January 1st, 2016.  Sunday night-Tuesday should see the coldest temperatures of the season.  The best news is that we'll have the best of both worlds... sustained cold next midweek...then a SLIGHT warmup to slightly above seasonable temperatures for the weekend.  No 60 degree BS.  No -10 degree BS.  A happy medium!  Haven't seen that since...since...ummm...


----------



## goldsbar (Dec 30, 2015)

I'm not seeing any great big cold shot (I focus on the Catskills).  Sort of seasonal at the very best.  Good few days coming up, but then low 40's in the day starting Tuesday, meaning making snow only at night.  Poconos even worse and next few days are only marginally good.


----------



## ALLSKIING (Dec 30, 2015)

goldsbar said:


> I'm not seeing any great big cold shot (I focus on the Catskills).  Sort of seasonal at the very best.  Good few days coming up, but then low 40's in the day starting Tuesday, meaning making snow only at night.  Poconos even worse and next few days are only marginally good.



2nd have of January and on is when it's really supposed to happen.


----------



## catsup948 (Dec 30, 2015)

goldsbar said:


> I'm not seeing any great big cold shot (I focus on the Catskills).  Sort of seasonal at the very best.  Good few days coming up, but then low 40's in the day starting Tuesday, meaning making snow only at night.  Poconos even worse and next few days are only marginally good.



Cold, warm, back to cold, it's a transitional period. Things could get very interesting starting as early as next week. I've been reading models may be having some problems reading the quick changes going on in the Pacific.


----------



## dlague (Dec 31, 2015)

Accuweather one month view!  BS or is it possible no Janaury thaw?


----------



## benski (Dec 31, 2015)

dlague said:


> Accuweather one month view!  BS or is it possible no Janaury thaw?
> 
> View attachment 18353



January thaw came early this year!!!


----------



## mriceyman (Jan 1, 2016)

dlague said:


> Accuweather one month view!  BS or is it possible no Janaury thaw?
> 
> View attachment 18353



After day 10 or so it just puts up a guess for the rest of the month. Not saying it wont stay cold just you cant follow that


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 1, 2016)

dlague said:


> Accuweather one month view!  BS or is it possible no Janaury thaw?



Those things are such BS I dont understand why they exist.  That said, mid January is starting to look cold, and with legitimate storm shots-on-goal for the first time this year.


----------



## WoodCore (Jan 1, 2016)

Can't have a January thaw without a proper freeze! 


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----------



## ss20 (Jan 2, 2016)

It's far out, but for a couple of days the models have been showing a storm for next Saturday.  I think this should synopsis(ize) it best...  if you're skiing south of the VT/Mass line, click here.  If you're skiing north of VT/MA, click here

EDIT: and the next model run brings snow down to NYC.  My weather joke jinxed us correctly!  In all seriousness, could see some major snow Friday-Sunday next weekend.  Long-range, I know... light at the end of the tunnel, right?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 5, 2016)

Cant catch a break.


----------



## Not Sure (Jan 6, 2016)

Well after this warm up/rain looks like the cold is here to stay.     6:00


----------



## JDMRoma (Jan 6, 2016)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Well after this warm up/rain looks like the cold is here to stay.     6:00



Isn't that what we said last week. ?



Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## andrec10 (Jan 6, 2016)

JDMRoma said:


> Isn't that what we said last week. ?
> 
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## VTKilarney (Jan 7, 2016)

From the Single Chair Weather Blog:

There has been a lot of debate surrounding the evolution of pattern during the middle part of January and beyond. There is no doubt, some of the teleconnections that typically drive eastern U.S. and specifically New England cold will weaken between the 15th and 17th. We will certainly lose the support of the PNA or any large ridge in western North America. We will have the benefit of a loosened Pacific Jet next week allowing for the outbreak of cold weather but this jet stream is expected to re-tighten somewhat (it's hard to keep that completely down in a El Nino) mid month. I don't argue any of this but the MJO does not support a complete EPO flip. In addition, we should continue to see some limited blocking near the poles preventing the pattern from going entirely warm. In my opinion, we should see lots of storminess so even if the event this weekend doesn't materialize as we would like, we should see additional chances during the middle part of January and beyond with temperatures closer to normal if not slightly above normal.


----------



## catsup948 (Jan 9, 2016)

Monsterous storms starting to show up on the ensembles.  Nice pattern incoming after tomorrow.  Maybe, just maybe we can get something to hit.


----------



## ss20 (Jan 10, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> Monsterous storms starting to show up on the ensembles.  Nice pattern incoming after tomorrow.  Maybe, just maybe we can get something to hit.



Yeah, next weekend looks really undecided.  Three systems of energy close together and its throwing off the models.


----------



## Puck it (Jan 10, 2016)

We f'ing need it.  2 steps forward and 3 steps back today.


----------



## lerops (Jan 10, 2016)

We already had the January thaw. Just that we didn't have the snow first.


----------



## ss20 (Jan 10, 2016)

lerops said:


> We already had the January thaw. Just that we didn't have the snow first.



Summary of the 2015-2016 ski season so far!


----------



## dlague (Jan 10, 2016)

Today was a mess.  We drove by Cannon and thin areas are the wrong color now!  What will remain will be bullet proof.


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----------



## bigbog (Jan 10, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> Monsterous storms starting to show up on the ensembles.  Nice pattern incoming after tomorrow.  Maybe, just maybe we can get something to hit.



Tomorrow(Tusday) into Wednesday should provide someting at elevation...but then temps fluctuate again.  Agree, at least there appears to be somekind of change in the arctic's cold-air dipping more to the south than earlier...


----------



## ss20 (Jan 10, 2016)

Sh!t sh!t sh!t... next weekend is falling apart...quickly.  GFS has rain all the way to the Canadian border Saturday into early Sunday, with snow finishing the event off... but mostly rain.  EURO is a bit colder.  But there are a lot of variables with this storm and the surrounding area.  Gotta see how things develop, but as of now what we need isn't in play.


GFS "snowfall" (or lack of) from late Friday to late Monday




Hopefully Tuesday's snow showers remind Flatlanders that it is in fact winter and drives up ticket sales up north.


----------



## catsup948 (Jan 11, 2016)

We probably should wait on this one.  There are many pieces in play.  No need to create panic.


----------



## andrec10 (Jan 11, 2016)

The sky is falling................


----------



## dlague (Jan 11, 2016)

I think this weekend looks OK in Northern NH!


----------



## ALLSKIING (Jan 11, 2016)

The GFS is clueless!


----------



## ALLSKIING (Jan 14, 2016)

Rare(only 4th since 1851) January tropical storm Alex strengthened overnight and winds are at 70mph. Why are we watching it closely if it poses no threat to us you ask? Because it will likely have implications for the rest of Winter. If it stays on track, it could set a block up and force cold air down, and along with that will come snow.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Jan 14, 2016)

ALLSKIING said:


> Rare(only 4th since 1851) January tropical storm Alex strengthened overnight and winds are at 70mph. Why are we watching it closely if it poses no threat to us you ask? Because it will likely have implications for the rest of Winter. If it stays on track, it could set a block up and force cold air down, and along with that will come snow.




I just came here to post about the rare January Hurricane too.
That block could end up just making it cold and dry here instead. However, I don't think the models will really know what to do with a hurricane this time of year. They currently have the remnants retrograding into Labrador/Northern Quebec.
I do wonder if the southern tip of Greenland will get a tropical downpour or and epic dump of snow?


----------



## ALLSKIING (Jan 14, 2016)

from_the_NEK said:


> I just came here to post about the rare January Hurricane too.
> That block could end up just making it cold and dry here instead. However, I don't think the models will really know what to do with a hurricane this time of year. They currently have the remnants retrograding into Labrador/Northern Quebec.
> I do wonder if the southern tip of Greenland will get a tropical downpour or and epic dump of snow?



Anything can happen but this same thing is what set up the blizzard of 1978.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Jan 14, 2016)

According to the Mt Mansfield snow depth chart, the mountain is 60% below average depth for this time of year. It would take a 25+ inch storm to get to an average depth of ~42".
:-?


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## Tin (Jan 14, 2016)

Things are starting to look...juicy.


----------



## ss20 (Jan 14, 2016)

Nearly all the ensembles have a Flatlands storm for next Saturday-Sunday. 

Dear Ullr, I REALLY REALLY hope next weekend gets us lots and lots of RAIN!  Please, I really want next weekend to be a BIG, FAT RAIN STORM with 50 degree temperatures.  I'm tired of skiing, so I want RAIN!  Please deliver.

                                                                                                                                                               With WARM regards,
                                                                                                                                                A guy who really likes SUMMER









One 2ft blizzard coming up :wink:


----------



## JimG. (Jan 14, 2016)

ALLSKIING said:


> Anything can happen but this same thing is what set up the blizzard of 1978.



That would be awesome. I was at college in NH in 1978 and that storm turned into a 3 day event with a total of close to 5 feet of snow.

I remember jumping off the roof of my 5 story dorm into 10 foot deep snow banks.


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## WoodCore (Jan 14, 2016)

Although we've had a crappy beginning to the season, pretty sure the sustained cold and big snows in southern NE last year didn't really get going until the last week of January. In fact it looks like we had temps in the 40's and an inch plus rain event in CT around the 18th of January. First big snow storm, other than at Thanksgiving happened around 1/24. Short and sweet of it is that I've got hope that this season is about to turn itself around and make all the bad weather in December a distant memory. Fingers crossed.


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## skiberg (Jan 14, 2016)

Last year was a bit delayed as well. BUT, we had sustained cold. there is no indication that sustained cold is going to arrive anytime soon. Unless this January hurricane completely messes with the patterns. We may be near normal, or slightly below but nothing dramatic. Storms are around, but the cold does not seem deep enough to fight off the invading warm air and we get rain/sleet/snow and a general mess. It seems like storm tracks have to be nearly perfect this year for us to get the goods. I have no doubt that will happen at some point, but based upon what I have read it will not be the norm. It will be the infrequent and lucky event when it happens.


----------



## ss20 (Jan 17, 2016)

Friday night-Saturday is still on the radar.  Last GFS run POUNDED northern NJ up through Boston.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 17, 2016)

All major models now locked on an absolute doozy of a major snowstorm somewhere in the Friday to Saturday timeframe.  Keep in mind, we are STILL IN THE "FOOTBALL PULLING" TIMEFRAME, so you'd want to see this STILL on the models on Tuesday, but.......

Could be a big one Weezy.


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## catsup948 (Jan 17, 2016)

Big totals for NYC!  Wisp,  West Virginia buried.  Hopefully we can get this to tuck a bit nw.


----------



## Tin (Jan 17, 2016)

Remember late last January when NYC had big snow totals? That worked out well.


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## JDMRoma (Jan 17, 2016)

Tin said:


> Remember late last January when NYC had big snow totals? That worked out well.



Do I need to start skiing NYC ?

Didn't do much for northern nh last year. 

2 feet at my house 2 inches at cannon 

God I hope we don't repeat that. 


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## Abubob (Jan 17, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Friday night-Saturday is still on the radar.  Last GFS run POUNDED northern NJ up through Boston.


Yeah, Boston _REALLY_ needs snow.


----------



## Tin (Jan 17, 2016)

JDMRoma said:


> Do I need to start skiing NYC ?
> 
> Didn't do much for northern nh last year.
> 
> ...



Unfortunately trending that way. Sharp cut off above the Mass Pike.

My reference was a day before the first big storm for southern New England the EURO put 35-50" in NYC. Created panic and chaos since it was the "king" model. It of course busted but still through down two feet plus for southern New England. 

It was definitely weird driving up from RI last year starting with 4' on the ground and arriving in Montpelier to see 4" on the ground.


----------



## ss20 (Jan 17, 2016)

Tin said:


> My reference was a day before the first big storm for southern New England the EURO put 35-50" in NYC. Created panic and chaos since it was the "king" model. It of course busted but still through down two feet plus for southern New England.



I don't think I could ever forget that weekend.  I remember getting in the car Saturday morning and driving to work thinking about how there's been no big storm this year.  Saturday night I come home and found this forum had EXPLODED with posts on a storm which would bring us 3-4 FEET of snow (favorite weather quote: The ERUO just went Blizzard of 78...or full retard).  The next day my boss showed me the weather report and the total amount was stupidly insane like 4-5 feet. 

And then it fizzled... :roll:


----------



## bigbog (Jan 18, 2016)

dlague said:


> I think this weekend looks OK in Northern NH!
> 
> Also is looking pretty good for Maine too...keep fingers crossed.


----------



## VTKilarney (Jan 18, 2016)

Uh oh.  From the Single Chair Weather Blog:

"There are some ominous signs as we head into February as the EPO is expected to flip to positive. This basically means that the jet stream will tighten in the Pacific forcing more unsettled weather out in the west while milder weather dominates eastern North America. There is a long way to go still and 2 weeks of generally favorable weather in front of it so lets not get too far ahead of ourselves. "


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 18, 2016)

Yup.  The long-range shows a warming up at the end of January.  Hope it's wrong.


----------



## ALLSKIING (Jan 18, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yup.  The long-range shows a warming up at the end of January.  Hope it's wrong.



I believe Weatherbell thinks it's wrong! Hopefully they are right.


----------



## ss20 (Jan 18, 2016)

Next Wednesday-Thursday looks VERY interesting on the GFS ensembles as well.  Interesting enough where I, in CT, could go from nothing to 3 feet in my yard in less than a week.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jan 18, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Next Wednesday-Thursday looks VERY interesting on the GFS ensembles as well.  Interesting enough where I, in CT, could go from nothing to 3 feet in my yard in less than a week.



Not to be a Debbie Downer, but 9 to 10 days out is the ultimate pulling-the-football-away timeframe.  Not only that, but there is a potential HECS ahead of that energy, which could be confusing the hades out of the models.  Not sure I buy into anything behind that monster until the monster departs.


----------



## steamboat1 (Jan 18, 2016)

LMAO.....tomorrow/tomorrow night looks like significant snowfall in ski country. Gonna be damn cold though. Anyone of you predict the 7"-8" last night? I think not.


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## ALLSKIING (Jan 18, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> LMAO.....tomorrow/tomorrow night looks like significant snowfall in ski country. Gonna be damn cold though. Anyone of you predict the 7"-8" last night? I think not.



Who cares about cold...Enjoy the snow!


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## dlague (Jan 19, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> LMAO.....tomorrow/tomorrow night looks like significant snowfall in ski country. Gonna be damn cold though. Anyone of you predict the 7"-8" last night? I think not.



Snowed all day at Cannon yesterday.  It was cold but fun!


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## dlague (Jan 19, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> LMAO.....tomorrow/tomorrow night looks like significant snowfall in ski country. Gonna be damn cold though. Anyone of you predict the 7"-8" last night? I think not.



Snowed all day at Cannon yesterday.  It was cold but fun!


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## steamboat1 (Jan 23, 2016)

Probably 3"-5" at Mt. Ellen Wed. evening.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 23, 2016)

Now that it's only 5 days out, might be worth mentioning that that storm is still there.  Needs to come west though.

EDIT:   May as well display it.

GFS and Euro say NO Soup For You!!!!

But the Canadian has a BIG snowstorm that would wallop the Poconos again. LOL


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## WJenness (Jan 25, 2016)

OK guys...

I'm ready for the next one.

Thoughts?


----------



## Rowsdower (Jan 25, 2016)

I really wouldn't mind if this missed us and went north instead. 

I want to ride Plattekill again this year and I'd love for them to get the goods.


----------



## ScottySkis (Jan 25, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> I really wouldn't mind if this missed us and went north instead.
> 
> I want to ride Plattekill again this year and I'd love for them to get the goods.


Hope they get snow for discount 25$ dollar days this Wedenday, Thursday and Friday. 
I be their Friday most likely. 

Any one think maybe they might get sniw this week in Roxbury NY?

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## BenedictGomez (Jan 25, 2016)

WJenness said:


> OK guys...
> 
> I'm ready for the next one.
> 
> Thoughts?



Not looking great, every model has it as a miss.  Close, but no cigar.  Would need a decently hefty western shift.  Below I put the _closest _it gets on each of the big 3 models.


----------



## Tin (Jan 26, 2016)

Get your skiing in while you can!


----------



## WoodCore (Jan 26, 2016)

It's a way out but Canadian wants to follow mid-week rain event with a coastal low over the weekend of 2/6.


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## VTKilarney (Jan 26, 2016)

That sucks!  Hopefully the models will move the snow/rain line south, or the entire storm will stay to the south.


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## JDMRoma (Jan 26, 2016)

It just keeps getting better ! Weather pattern will change next week I'm sure of it !


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## dlague (Jan 26, 2016)

Tin said:


> Get your skiing in while you can!



Man, when we get a system that could dump it does not come down crystallized.  If it goes south it snows.  Weird winter!


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## catsup948 (Jan 26, 2016)

Tin said:


> Get your skiing in while you can!



We keep plugging away.  Hopefully this is it for rain storms for a while.


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## NYDB (Jan 27, 2016)

Sweet Jeebus this is terrible.  Really hoping against hope that 2/3-2/4 storm comes in more white than wet.


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## skiberg (Jan 27, 2016)

Good god, is that 5 inches of rain??!!! Am I reading that correctly?


----------



## Whitey (Jan 27, 2016)

Mother nature has been a warm, wet, cruel bitch in the northeast this year.   

I think I may have dated her in college.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 27, 2016)

skiberg said:


> Good god, is that 5 inches of rain??!!! *Am I reading that correctly?*



No.


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## VTKilarney (Jan 27, 2016)

The ten day forecast is just depressing.


----------



## ss20 (Jan 27, 2016)

VTKilarney said:


> The ten day forecast is just depressing.



I like spring... and it's not like there's many natural trails to lose anyway.


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## WoodCore (Jan 27, 2016)

VTKilarney said:


> The ten day forecast is just depressing.



I'm not giving up hope just yet. Remember the winter of 2006-2007, no significant snowfall until Valentines day but after that storm the rest of the season was fantastic right through April.  I believe that year was also an El Niño year. 


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## JimG. (Jan 27, 2016)

WoodCore said:


> I'm not giving up hope just yet. Remember the winter of 2006-2007, no significant snowfall until Valentines day but after that storm the rest of the season was fantastic right through April.  I believe that year was also an El Niño year.



A voice of reason. 

Keeping the faith.


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## catsup948 (Jan 28, 2016)

WoodCore said:


> I'm not giving up hope just yet. Remember the winter of 2006-2007, no significant snowfall until Valentines day but after that storm the rest of the season was fantastic right through April.  I believe that year was also an El Niño year.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



I remember that season well.  Epic turn around.  We would need something better than that to get to average by seasons end in the mountains. I just hope for a month of good winter and maybe we get lucky in March. After Wednesdays rain storm the pattern looks pretty good!


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## jrmagic (Jan 28, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> I remember that season well.  Epic turn around.  We would need something better than that to get to average by seasons end in the mountains. I just hope for a month of good winter and maybe we get lucky in March. After Wednesdays rain storm the pattern looks pretty good!



At this point I don't care about seasonal average totals. If it turns around after next week and starts snowing like it did that season I will be very happy.


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## dlague (Jan 28, 2016)

Hey if it going to be wet next week, it is better that it happens mid week than on the weekend.  Chances are that they will be able to make some snow but the week's end.


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## hammer (Jan 28, 2016)

Somehow I think it will be a little more crowded this weekend.  No natural, but ski areas that can make snow have managed to open up a lot of trails and the temps will be mild.  Also no football games to keep people at home, although that didn't keep the crowds away last year on Superbowl Sunday.


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## dlague (Jan 28, 2016)

Interesting tidbit.  Watching the news and they had a chart comparing last year to this year.  In Concord we have received 12.4 inches last year we were at 39.5.  They do note that today last year Concord got 30 inches with the first real storm of the season.  Moral of the story - there is hope still.


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## Los (Jan 28, 2016)

Someone posted this at Killington zone -- another measure of just how bad this season really is: 

"Went over to archive.org and using the Wayback Machine https://archive.org/web/ grabbed the "season to date" snowfall totals on Feb 1 from our two most recent years with historically bad starts (2006-2007) 82" and (2011-2012) 85". We're at 32" for the year and its Feb. 1 on Monday. Here's hoping we finish the season like 06-07. That year it didn't get good till the Valentine's Day storm rolled in, http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... -day/61535. A repeat of that sure would be nice."


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 30, 2016)

Improvement.


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## skibumski (Jan 30, 2016)

Hopefully the warm Atlantic doesn't pull the storms out that way too far. Definitely some promise for stormy weather there.


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 31, 2016)

Lots of shots on goal coming up on the models tonight.  

Just need to cash one in, but after Feb 5th'ish, it looks like the pattern is productive.


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## hammer (Feb 1, 2016)

Just wondering what the trends really are...long range forecasts aren't putting us in the deep freeze, just back to seasonal norms.  Don't mind the lack of snow in my back yard but even with just a few trips this season I'm already tired of being on the groomers with the masses.  Maybe I need a midweek trip to reset...


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## bigbog (Feb 1, 2016)

dlague said:


> Interesting tidbit.  Watching the news and they had a chart comparing last year to this year.  In Concord we have received 12.4 inches last year we were at 39.5.  They do note that today last year Concord got 30 inches with the first real storm of the season.  Moral of the story - there is hope still...



for lowly Bangor:
15/16:  5"
14/15:  42"

..A typically lousy New England winter so far, but there's still a little more time to 15/16...
If Ullr keeps on falling asleep on the couch we're gonna need a lot of rain for the streams/brooks come summer.


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## WoodCore (Feb 1, 2016)

Potential for something around February 9th. Still to early to get worked up about it.


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## VTKilarney (Feb 1, 2016)

We are going to lose a lot of ground by the time Wednesday's rain storm is done.  It's frustrating, because we were one good snowstorm away from some very good skiing.  

I've mentally come to the conclusion that I may not be skiing for a week or two.  This will be true if the soft snow that we have right now freezes up hard.  

At Burke yesterday, the snow got quite soft by the afternoon.  Soft snow on bumps is great, but soft snow on groomed trails just isn't that fun in my book.  And Burke has no moguls on snowmaking trails, so the cover has gotten too thin to ski what moguls they have.

There were also a lot of bare spots on the edges of trails that had not been there just a day or two ago.  You can even see where a couple of bare spots are about to poke through on snowmaking trails.


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## SkiingInABlueDream (Feb 1, 2016)

I haven't been out since mid-December (non-weather factors working against me).
But I'm just curious, how does this winter so far compare against 2011-2012? I haven't been paying too much attention but it seems worse?


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## andrec10 (Feb 1, 2016)

skifastr said:


> I haven't been out since mid-December (non-weather factors working against me).
> But I'm just curious, how does this winter so far compare against 2011-2012? I haven't been paying too much attention but it seems worse?



Much worse than that winter! At least so far!


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## Tin (Feb 1, 2016)

skifastr said:


> I haven't been out since mid-December (non-weather factors working against me).
> But I'm just curious, how does this winter so far compare against 2011-2012? I haven't been paying too much attention but it seems worse?



Not sure on up to date but I recall 2012 had some epic upslope starting this time of year. I remember the end of February gave Stowe-Jay 3-4' of snow in a 48 hour span and was of the best skiing I've ever experienced.


----------



## Puck it (Feb 1, 2016)

Tin said:


> Not sure on up to date but I recall 2012 had some epic upslope starting this time of year. I remember the end of February gave Stowe-Jay 3-4' of snow in a 48 hour span and was of the best skiing I've ever experienced.


You call what you do skiing.  Wow.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 1, 2016)

I'm feeling good about February once this warm week clears out.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 1, 2016)

March on the other hand?   Well, lets just hope the models are wrong. :-?


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## Tin (Feb 1, 2016)

Puck it said:


> You call what you do skiing.  Wow.




How's skiing? Oh wait, have you figured out how to jerk it with your other hand yet?


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## Puck it (Feb 1, 2016)

Tin said:


> How's skiing? Oh wait, have you figured out how to jerk it with your other hand yet?


left handed.


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## andrec10 (Feb 1, 2016)

Tin said:


> How's skiing? Oh wait, have you figured out how to jerk it with your other hand yet?


----------



## jrmagic (Feb 1, 2016)

andrec10 said:


> Much worse than that winter! At least so far!



Agreed. From what I recall, the biggest difference is 2011/2012  had  a lot of rain  and thaw/freeze cycles  events where this year it's more a lack of precipitation and stupid warm average temperatures.


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## NYDB (Feb 1, 2016)

Low 50's and 1.5'' of rain for So VT wed.    Should be slurpee like conditions wed-thurs.


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## dlague (Feb 1, 2016)

jrmagic said:


> Agreed. From what I recall, the biggest difference is 2011/2012  had  a lot of rain  and thaw/freeze cycles  events where this year it's more a lack of precipitation and stupid warm average temperatures.



I agree!

Our yard never had snow except for the Halloween event that season.  This season - well it is looking very brown but that was just something that happened two days ago.


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## dlague (Feb 1, 2016)

I think there will be drop in trail counts where natural trails were opened with thin coverage.


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## Smellytele (Feb 2, 2016)

jrmagic said:


> Agreed. From what I recall, the biggest difference is 2011/2012  had  a lot of rain  and thaw/freeze cycles  events where this year it's more a lack of precipitation and stupid warm average temperatures.



I believe 2011/12 had one good storm late Feb or very early March and that was about it. Also the Halloween storm.


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## hammer (Feb 2, 2016)

Smellytele said:


> I believe 2011/12 had one good storm late Feb or very early March and that was about it. Also the Halloween storm.


Some may have enjoyed the early skiing but the Halloween storm left us without power for 4 days (and others for much longer than that).

I'm looking to get out a week from Thursday but unfortunately so far I don't see a refresh after this week's storm.

I'm hopeful that we will get at least one decent sized storm but the chances of a season recovery are fading fast...


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## Tin (Feb 2, 2016)

hammer said:


> I'm looking to get out a week from Thursday but unfortunately so far I don't see a refresh after this week's storm.




Mon-Weds looks like it has potential.


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## ss20 (Feb 2, 2016)

Getting excited for Monday!  Been on the models for two days now.  Definitely something to watch!


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## dlague (Feb 2, 2016)

hammer said:


> Some may have enjoyed the early skiing but the Halloween storm left us without power for 4 days (and others for much longer than that).
> 
> I'm looking to get out a week from Thursday but unfortunately so far I don't see a refresh after this week's storm.
> 
> I'm hopeful that we will get at least one decent sized storm but the chances of a season recovery are fading fast...



We lost power too but skied Killington anyways.


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## snoseek (Feb 2, 2016)

Well the ridge is finally setting up for a week or two out here so maybe thats a sign that things will improve a bit back east.

Went through this last year....sucked. Past 300 ytd this year so things are averaging themselves back out i guess.

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## mriceyman (Feb 2, 2016)

snoseek said:


> Well the ridge is finally setting up for a week or two out here so maybe thats a sign that things will improve a bit back east.
> 
> Went through this last year....sucked. Past 300 ytd this year so things are averaging themselves back out i guess.
> 
> Sent from my LG-H345 using Tapatalk



Seems like its been either you or us to get the goods.. Anyone know if thats how it has gone over the years or is it just lining up that way recently


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## snoseek (Feb 2, 2016)

Its not always that way but often if the trough is in the west then the east tends to have a ridge. It was the complete opposite last year. February looks dry around here...is ok im tired of shoveling

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## jrmagic (Feb 2, 2016)

Smellytele said:


> I believe 2011/12 had one good storm late Feb or very early March and that was about it. Also the Halloween storm.



Definitely a big storm that season in Feb though I recall it being earlier than late Feb... perhaps there were no other big ones but I seem to recall that once that storm rolled in, we had good conditions for a while with several 3"-6" refills each week. In any event I'm hoping tomorrow's event doesn't hit us as bad as it looks right now and that we get some goodness thereafter.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 2, 2016)

A storm on the 9th/10th would be a boon for the resorts ahead of the Holiday weekend (which is sadly now Holiday week).  Some models show a big storm, some models show an out-to-sea miss, some models show a too-far-west track that yields mostly rain.  We should know more by this time on Thursday.


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## Abubob (Feb 2, 2016)

Smellytele said:


> I believe 2011/12 had one good storm late Feb or very early March and that was about it. Also the Halloween storm.


At least that year snowmaking was viable. Ragged made a ton of snow on Showboat by January as shown in this photo.


Debris Field by Bob Misuraca, on Flickr

This past weekend there was bupkis - less than bupkis - on that trail. This photo taken two weeks ago show how bad it is.



Unpaved Showboat by Bob Misuraca, on Flickr


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 2, 2016)

More snow in n.NJ & s.PA than in New England per NASA photo from a few hours ago.

Went sledding with the gf last night!   Sadly, tomorrow will probably torch it all, but it's been fun.


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## mriceyman (Feb 2, 2016)

But tomorrow kiss alot of that snow goodbye


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## nhskier1969 (Feb 2, 2016)

mriceyman said:


> But tomorrow kiss alot of that snow goodbye
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## ss20 (Feb 2, 2016)

mriceyman said:


> But tomorrow kiss alot of that snow goodbye
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Nah man, we're getting 6 inches.  Powder day atop North Ridge tomorrow!  Woo woo!  Face shot city!  Trees for days!  Who's gonna drop into Devil's Fiddle with me?!


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## mriceyman (Feb 2, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Nah man, we're getting 6 inches.  Powder day atop North Ridge tomorrow!  Woo woo!  Face shot city!  Trees for days!  Who's gonna drop into Devil's Fiddle with me?!



Lol


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## Not Sure (Feb 2, 2016)




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## dlague (Feb 2, 2016)

Abubob said:


> At least that year snowmaking was viable. Ragged made a ton of snow on Showboat by January as shown in this photo.
> 
> 
> Debris Field by Bob Misuraca, on Flickr
> ...



Too bad they make snow and make this a single fall line trail.  Looks like it would be a nice double fall line.


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## Los (Feb 3, 2016)

Overall, this is very depressing: http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2016/02/snow-next-week-question-is-how-much.html

I've resigned myself to the likelihood that there will be no late season turnaround, and that 2015-2016 will go down as one of the worst ever for the East. What's disturbing about it is not knowing to what extent it's been caused by the inherent variability of weather patterns, or to what extent the strength of this El Nino is at all related to g----l w-----g. I'm NOT trying to bait anyone or to start a debate. I'm just saying for ME, that's what makes this season not just a disappointment, but a frightening harbinger of things to come. In short, a world without skiing, except for maybe the uber rich who can afford lift tickets at the last remaining resorts.


----------



## JimG. (Feb 3, 2016)

Los said:


> Overall, this is very depressing: http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2016/02/snow-next-week-question-is-how-much.html
> 
> I've resigned myself to the likelihood that there will be no late season turnaround, and that 2015-2016 will go down as one of the worst ever for the East. What's disturbing about it is not knowing to what extent it's been caused by the inherent variability of weather patterns, or to what extent the strength of this El Nino is at all related to g----l w-----g. I'm NOT trying to bait anyone or to start a debate. I'm just saying for ME, that's what makes this season not just a disappointment, but a frightening harbinger of things to come. In short, a world without skiing, except for maybe the uber rich who can afford lift tickets at the last remaining resorts.



You said it: ONE of the worst ever. Snowless winters have happened before and will happen again. 

Don't despair.


----------



## WoodCore (Feb 3, 2016)

Please step back from the ledge and get a grip of yourself!


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## jrmagic (Feb 3, 2016)

WoodCore said:


> Please step back from the ledge and get a grip of yourself!



Yes... exactly.


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## mriceyman (Feb 3, 2016)

One good week can erase all the bad memories and make the 2nd half solid


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## prsboogie (Feb 3, 2016)

Los said:


> Overall, this is very depressing: http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2016/02/snow-next-week-question-is-how-much.html
> 
> I've resigned myself to the likelihood that there will be no late season turnaround, and that 2015-2016 will go down as one of the worst ever for the East. What's disturbing about it is not knowing to what extent it's been caused by the inherent variability of weather patterns, or to what extent the strength of this El Nino is at all related to g----l w-----g. I'm NOT trying to bait anyone or to start a debate. I'm just saying for ME, that's what makes this season not just a disappointment, but a frightening harbinger of things to come. In short, a world without skiing, except for maybe the uber rich who can afford lift tickets at the last remaining resorts.



And last season there were those saying this would be the new pattern of winters in NE. It's all cyclical and there may be SOME variation in the extremes there will be many more NORMAL NE winters in between.


----------



## ss20 (Feb 3, 2016)

mriceyman said:


> One good week can erase all the bad memories and make the 2nd half solid
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Yeah... and that week *could* be next week.


----------



## VTKilarney (Feb 3, 2016)

The realist in me says that we aren't going to get a major turnaround until at best the latter part of February.  Even if we get a decent snowstorm next week, it really is just going to replace the damage that this massive thaw has done.  We will be back to trails that are marginal to have open.  And we will quickly be in mid-February praying for another storm to give us the snow that we really need.

As frustrating as this is, we've had a couple of great years before this year.  So it's hard to complain too much.


----------



## snoseek (Feb 3, 2016)

If youre livlihood depends on snow to come then i totally feel for you. As a recreational skier youre gonna need patience and just hope it comes as frustrating as that may be. It came in spring of 07 and maybe it will, maybe it wont. Go ride bikes, play golf or whatever your non skiing activities are. It will be ok.

Sent from my LG-H345 using Tapatalk


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 3, 2016)

Los said:


> *this season not just a disappointment, but a frightening harbinger of things to come. In short, a world without skiing, except for maybe the uber rich who can afford lift tickets at the last remaining resorts.*



LULZ


----------



## WoodCore (Feb 3, 2016)

Here's some stoke from February 2010 to talk the "jumpers" off the bridge. http://forums.alpinezone.com/showthread.php/73030-Plattekill-02-26-2010

If I recall, prior to this storm, the Catskills had been having a rather lackluster snow year, amazing how 70" in 3 days can transform a ski season.


----------



## nhskier1969 (Feb 3, 2016)

If you look close I think I can see him on the web cam


----------



## Los (Feb 3, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> LULZ



Whatever man! Dramatic flourish aside, that seems to be where things are headed.


----------



## Cannonball (Feb 4, 2016)

mriceyman said:


> One good week can erase all the bad memories and make the 2nd half solid
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Partially agree. 

ONE good week is not remotely enough to salvage this season.  One good week can START to make the 2nd half solid.  We need a full 180 right now and it had to SUSTAIN for at least a month (probably more) to keep this year out of the bad record books.


----------



## skiberg (Feb 4, 2016)

I guess that means every other year will be outstanding like last year.


----------



## ss20 (Feb 4, 2016)

...and in a strange turn of events Yawgoo and Blue Hills are gonna have powder days tomorrow.  Go figure.


----------



## hammer (Feb 4, 2016)

ss20 said:


> ...and in a strange turn of events Yawgoo and Blue Hills are gonna have _*cement*_ days tomorrow.  Go figure.


Fixed it for you.

This will be a waste of a storm...


----------



## skiberg (Feb 4, 2016)

I am convinced we are not having a season this year. Longer term showing it getting warmer. Next weeks "Cold" is trending weaker. Then looking like it may warm up pretty good again. Then its March. The fat lady is already warming up. 

If we are luck we may get a good week or two, but I am convinced this season is shot.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Feb 4, 2016)

skiberg said:


> I am convinced we are not having a season this year. Longer term showing it getting warmer. Next weeks "Cold" is trending weaker. Then looking like it may warm up pretty good again. Then its March. The fat lady is already warming up.
> 
> If we are luck we may get a good week or two, but I am convinced this season is shot.



Agreed. The models are not showing anything to get excited about. It is going to take a 16-20 inch storm to get things going again on natural terrain in a lot of places. I just don't see it happening.
Hopefully something comes out of nowhere and dumps on us. But I'm not holding my breath.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Feb 4, 2016)

http://www.mychamplainvalley.com/news/maple-syrup-season-off-to-early-start-in-vermont


----------



## Whitey (Feb 4, 2016)

skiberg said:


> I am convinced we are not having a season this year. Longer term showing it getting warmer. Next weeks "Cold" is trending weaker. Then looking like it may warm up pretty good again. Then its March. The fat lady is already warming up.
> 
> If we are luck we may get a good week or two, but I am convinced this season is shot.



Gees, you wanna kick my dog too so you can bum me out some more?


----------



## fcksummer (Feb 5, 2016)

Shots are being fired at the wrong goal! wtf


----------



## JDMRoma (Feb 5, 2016)

fcksummer said:


> Shots are being fired at the wrong goal! wtf



Maybe we should rethink our passes for next season. Wonder how much blue hills is for a season pass ?? And if they have a no pee policy behind the ski patrol shack...... Do they even have a shack ??


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## Tin (Feb 5, 2016)

JDMRoma said:


> Maybe we should rethink our passes for next season. Wonder how much blue hills is for a season pass ?? And if they have a no pee policy behind the ski patrol shack...... Do they even have a shack ??
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



You're problems are solved. I think the weather observation center has a bathroom.


----------



## Puck it (Feb 5, 2016)

Tin said:


> You're problems are solved. I think the weather observation center has a bathroom.


They have their DNA now.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Feb 5, 2016)

Radar this morning:


----------



## skiberg (Feb 5, 2016)

Looks like next weeks storm might be falling apart a bit and becoming less likely. 


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 5, 2016)

skiberg said:


> Looks like next weeks storm might be falling apart a bit and becoming less likely.



Too early to say that.   

My take on these things is I dont care precisely where the models put the snow 4 days out, I'm just happy to see it snowing in a big chunk of the region.  Theres's not enough data digested yet, could be anything from snow on the fish to a big northeast and/or New England hit. Gotta wait.  Even Vermont isnt out of the picture yet, IMO, as most storms this season have "real life" been significantly west of model depiction.


----------



## skiberg (Feb 5, 2016)

Good, because I rely upon your expertise a heck of a lot more than I rely upon limited knowledge. 


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## catsup948 (Feb 5, 2016)

The Tuesday storm has some late potential.  This is to early in the game to write anything off.


----------



## skibumski (Feb 5, 2016)

Agreed.  Because there are two systems close by here (one coming up the coast off shore, the other coming through the midwest), it's tough to tell what's going to happen, and you get a lot of confusion in the models.

Best case scenario would be the two storms phase up and churn over NE.  Unfortunately, this looks highly unlikely.

Good scenario is the storm over the midwest strengthens, and the Atlantic storm weakens.  This is still a good hit over ski territory in the NE.

Medium case scenario is the two storms totally de-phase, and we get light hits from at least the one over the midwest, and possibly both.

Worst case scenario is the Atlantic storm strengthens and works its way further toward the warmth off shore, and the midwest storm tracks north as a result.  This means both storms miss ski country entirely.


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## skiberg (Feb 5, 2016)

This season as long as it does not rain it feels like a win. 


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 5, 2016)

skiberg said:


> Good, because I rely upon your expertise a heck of a lot more than I rely upon limited knowledge.



That's bad, because trust me, I have _limited _knowledge.  I'm merely a weather-weenie.  I've learned enough over the years to figure some stuff out before the folks on TV talk about it, but that's about the total extent of it.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 5, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> The Tuesday storm has some late potential.  This is to early in the game to write anything off.



We need something to change.  Everything has been so progressive this year it gets pushed too far east before it can turn up the coast. 

 At the moment, seems like the same story, once again at the moment it looks like I'll get more snow in NJ than folks in VT.  I love snow, but it's getting really tiring seeing all these beautiful pieces of energy sliding off the coast of North Carolina / Delmarva.  All the bits of energy are over land now, so we'll know more by 00z tomorrow night.  Fingers crossed (maybe toes too at this point).


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## ScottySkis (Feb 5, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> That's bad, because trust me, I have _limited _knowledge.  I'm merely a weather-weenie.  I've learned enough over the years to figure some stuff out before the folks on TV talk about it, but that's about the total extent of it.


He follow s good met weather people on Facebook to.Jessica!!!

Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk


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## ChicoKat (Feb 5, 2016)

The fat lady has sung. Stick a forK in it. Ski season as we would like to see it is over. Go west to ski or wait for Moutain bike season.


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## ss20 (Feb 5, 2016)

ChicoKat said:


> The fat lady has sung. Stick a forK in it. Ski season as we would like to see it is over. Go west to ski or wait for Moutain bike season.



Really?  Because we're gonna have a fresh foot of snow across the NE by President's Day (give or take) and the West will go bone dry.


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## jrmagic (Feb 5, 2016)

ChicoKat said:


> The fat lady has sung. Stick a forK in it. Ski season as we would like to see it is over. Go west to ski or wait for Moutain bike season.



LOL! Enjoy the wait.  Somehow I always have fun regardless of how good/ bad conditions may be. Sure beats sitting home waiting g for something better to come along.


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## Kleetus (Feb 6, 2016)

JDMRoma said:


> Maybe we should rethink our passes for next season. Wonder how much blue hills is for a season pass ?? And if they have a no pee policy behind the ski patrol shack...... Do they even have a shack ??
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



I bet they won't rain on your pee parade 


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## JDMRoma (Feb 6, 2016)

Our next storm seems to be going south. Another shot on goal for the Cape. 

 Well we still have March  !!


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## NYDB (Feb 7, 2016)

Looks pretty dry until 2/16.   Maybe a snow shower midweek, but no dumps.  At least no warmup


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## JDMRoma (Feb 7, 2016)

Almost no snow above Plymouth NH
 Gonna be icy as hell today !


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2016)

Son of Bastardi took a crack at a cumulative prediction for the multiple pieces of energy about to swing through.S

Sadly, this period had virtually a massive potential for huge snowfall, but it's fallen apart and the fish will see the powder.

Only thing to do now is hope the models are wrong about the Tuesday piece due to the complexity of handling multiple pieces of energy at once.  You never know.  Fingers crossed.


----------



## ScottySkis (Feb 7, 2016)

Any snow fall tommorow for Berkshire e

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## delco714 (Feb 7, 2016)

bigbog said:


> for lowly Bangor:
> 15/16:  5"
> 14/15:  42"
> 
> ...


My wife and I are in Bangor too (? Are you)


----------



## chuckstah (Feb 7, 2016)

JDMRoma said:


> Our next storm seems to be going south. Another shot on goal for the Cape.
> 
> Well we still have March  !!
> 
> ...



Blizzard warnings are up for the Cape.  7-12 inches.  I was at my Cape house yesterday to take care of some plumbing issues, and there's much more snow there at 8 foot elevation than in the NH mountains. The canal was iced over!  This is getting depressing! Something really needs to go north.


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## bigbog (Feb 8, 2016)

_Temps are Back!_.  Western Mtns should at least be able to get some healthy snowmaking underway...hope they get some of whatever's coming up in next few days...
____________________


			
				delco714 said:
			
		

> My wife and I are in Bangor too (? Are you)



Yes...  Hey too bad the western mtns hardly ever get the snow that we get from the coastal storms!


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## delco714 (Feb 8, 2016)

bigbog said:


> _Temps are Back!_.  Western Mtns should at least be able to get some healthy snowmaking underway...hope they get some of whatever's coming up in next few days...
> ____________________
> 
> 
> Yes...  Hey too bad the western mtns hardly ever get the snow that we get from the coastal storms!


nice! We go up to sugarloaf most weeks when we're not on call. I'm 26 she's 30 , no kids for now . Both providers within emhs


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## bigbog (Feb 8, 2016)

chuckstah said:


> Blizzard warnings are up for the Cape.  7-12 inches.  I was at my Cape house yesterday to take care of some plumbing issues, and there's much more snow there at 8 foot elevation than in the NH mountains. The canal was iced over!  This is getting depressing! Something really needs to go north.



I hear ya' on that....


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## dlague (Feb 8, 2016)

In Plymouth, NH - not a flake yet at 5 PM


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## nhskier1969 (Feb 8, 2016)

There some potential coming up this week, could be a great weekend, but cold


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## ss20 (Feb 8, 2016)

nhskier1969 said:


> There some potential coming up this week, could be a great weekend, but cold
> 
> View attachment 18939



Cold is a light way to put it.


----------



## jrmagic (Feb 8, 2016)

dlague said:


> In Plymouth, NH - not a flake yet at 5 PM



Here in Southern NY we got another 3 inches or so today.


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## Tin (Feb 8, 2016)

jrmagic said:


> Here in Southern NY we got another 3 inches or so today.




Only 2-3 more inches until Red Line and Master is skiable then.


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## dlague (Feb 8, 2016)

nhskier1969 said:


> There some potential coming up this week, could be a great weekend, but cold
> 
> View attachment 18939



Cold indeed!  Wow!  5 runs then a beer 5 more runs and repeat!


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 8, 2016)

Add in 20-30 mph winds on top of the -20s temps and the wind chill is going to be in the severe zone.


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## Boston Bulldog (Feb 8, 2016)

Hey all, haven't looked to see if this has been discussed but Open Snow.com has added a new blogger for New England and his first post was impressive. I would check it out!

Don't know much about him but he said that he is a graduate student at Plymouth State.

Also has a great map with the areas overlayed on it.


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## Edd (Feb 9, 2016)

3" at Wildcat. 6" at the Loaf. Gunstock claiming 3-4".


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## dlague (Feb 9, 2016)

Edd said:


> 3" at Wildcat. 6" at the Loaf. Gunstock claiming 3-4".



Gunstock should have gotten 3-4 easy since in concord we do that.  And it is about 20 miles away and based on the storms pattern.


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## Edd (Feb 9, 2016)

Gonna test the goods at the Cat. I'm here now and it's sunny with fresh snow. 

BW conditions yesterday were uninspiring.


----------



## dlague (Feb 9, 2016)

We want to get out so doing something local - Pats this afternoon into the evening.


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## snoseek (Feb 9, 2016)

Super warm temps out here in the west as a big strong persistent ridge looks to set up for most of february....this is hopefully the beginning of better times for eastern skiers?

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## catsup948 (Feb 10, 2016)

Growing confidence in a storm for the Tuesday Wednesday time frame next week.  Maybe someone can post last night's Euro run.  I'm reading it was very good for western New England.


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## WJenness (Feb 10, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> Growing confidence in a storm for the Tuesday Wednesday time frame next week.  Maybe someone can post last night's Euro run.  I'm reading it was very good for western New England.



:does snow dance:


----------



## skibumski (Feb 10, 2016)

Even this system has been a lot friendlier than expected. Guerrilla shots of snow are slowly starting to accumulate to real gains in a lot of ski country all the way from the Cats through Maine, and this low pressure system is sticking around to keep that coming through tomorrow. If we do get a big hit early next week, we'll already have a decent base back for it.


----------



## wa-loaf (Feb 10, 2016)

snoseek said:


> Super warm temps out here in the west as a big strong persistent ridge looks to set up for most of february....this is hopefully the beginning of better times for eastern skiers?



Oh, sure right when I'm headed West ...



catsup948 said:


> Growing confidence in a storm for the Tuesday Wednesday time frame next week.  Maybe someone can post last night's Euro run.  I'm reading it was very good for western New England.



And I'm flying out on Wednesday.

You are all welcome!:beer:


----------



## JonD (Feb 10, 2016)

skibumski said:


> Even this system has been a lot friendlier than expected. Guerrilla shots of snow are slowly starting to accumulate to real gains in a lot of ski country all the way from the Cats through Maine, and this low pressure system is sticking around to keep that coming through tomorrow. If we do get a big hit early next week, we'll already have a decent base back for it.



Sugarloaf reported 9". Didn't expect that.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2016)

Next week's big storm is a mess on the models.  Looks pretty uninspiring on both the GFS and Canadian, but I guess the most important thing at this point is there is a "something" there rather than worrying about size.  The Euro as of last night still looked impressivel'ish interior, so at least there's that.  Will be interesting to see how it looks today when it comes out soon.  If the ADK does get walloped per ECMWF depiction, I know where I'll be next weekend.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2016)

Uhhh..... well that escalated quickly into something completely different.  Euro is now a fireball inside runner with much precipitation other than snow.  Just a horrible, horrible, dreadful track. On a holiday week to boot.   Thank god this is > 150 hours out, so it has time to show anything but that.  I'd like to ski in Vermont this winter.    Alternatively, maybe this is an outlier run and the ensemble mean will be very different.


----------



## skibumski (Feb 10, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Uhhh..... well that escalated quickly into something completely different.  Euro is now a fireball inside runner with much precipitation other than snow.  Just a horrible, horrible, dreadful track. On a holiday week to boot.   Thank god this is > 150 hours out, so it has time to show anything but that.  I'd like to ski in Vermont this winter.    Alternatively, maybe this is an outlier run and the ensemble mean will be very different.



Yesterday's MRG weather blog post foresaw this as a possibility.    It really all depends on whether this trough sticks around long enough. If the Western Ridge stays strong for long enough to keep this arctic air bottled up here and the storm tracks south, we're money. If the storm goes north and inside, stick a fork in ski season because I don't think the cost benefit will be there to resurface other than putting down a minimum skiable top dressing for the holiday week.

I'm still optimistic because of how much the forecast for the warm up late next week has already relaxed and shortened.


----------



## dlague (Feb 10, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Uhhh..... well that escalated quickly into something completely different.  Euro is now a fireball inside runner with much precipitation other than snow.  Just a horrible, horrible, dreadful track. On a holiday week to boot.   Thank god this is > 150 hours out, so it has time to show anything but that.  I'd like to ski in Vermont this winter.    Alternatively, maybe this is an outlier run and the ensemble mean will be very different.



Well next Tuesday/Wednesday will be interesting or depressing.  Southern NH about an inch of non frozen precip and Northern NH about an inch of freezing r@!n.  Cannot catch a break!


----------



## skiberg (Feb 10, 2016)

Not to pile on but PSNH on alert for "potential major rain storm next week that could affect the power grid."


----------



## ChicoKat (Feb 10, 2016)

ChicoKat said:


> The fat lady has sung. Stick a forK in it. Ski season as we would like to see it is over. Go west to ski or wait for Moutain bike season.



I may not have to wait very long. This is beyond depressing. I think we need a new thread for emotional support.


----------



## NYDB (Feb 10, 2016)

Every fucking storm comes in as rain or moves off the coast!!  WTF!!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2016)

skiberg said:


> Not to pile on but PSNH on alert for *"potential major rain storm next week that could affect the power grid."*



Possibly ice storm even with warm upper levels.   It's early though.  Fingers crossed for a positive development.  Hopefully it drifts east.


----------



## skiberg (Feb 10, 2016)

How far north is this thing going to go? I am driving to Tremblant Minimum, North Pole it I have to.


----------



## skibumski (Feb 10, 2016)

Keep in mind that the models have consistently missed the same clipper systems west for the past few weeks in the 6-10 day range.  Remember all of those promising storms that drifted a little too far off shore?  The same move from this system should be right in the white stuff sweet spot.  Even the r@!n event from last week was slushier than expected.  If the forecast still looks like this on Friday morning... then I'd be worried.  Too early to panic a week out.


----------



## WJenness (Feb 10, 2016)

Sigh...

Weather this season got me like:







Cashing in a vacation day tomorrow though, just in case.

That image didn't post well, so click this: http://i.imgur.com/vdLE8dJ.gif


----------



## JDMRoma (Feb 10, 2016)

WJenness said:


> Sigh...
> 
> Weather this season got me like:
> 
> ...



Yup same here, Thursday and Friday.and well freeze our asses off this weekend and then it's gonna friggen rain ! Constantly getting bitchbslapped this year. 


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----------



## ss20 (Feb 10, 2016)

No offense to BG but he posted ONE possibility of this storm and everyone cried goat and got their panties in a twist.  

A few things that I see...

1. This storm is quite far out still.
2. Previous EURO runs showed a totally different outcome and the GFS has no idea what this storm is doing.
3. 90% chance this thing ticks East...just like nearly every other east coast storm.  
4. I don't buy the fact that we'll see a 60 degree temperature swing in 72 hours... from -15 degrees to 45 degrees. 

BTW, Saturday is looking nicer and nicer with every run (precipitation wise).


----------



## VTKilarney (Feb 10, 2016)

At this point we are fighting for scraps just like some destitute Dickens character.  I've come to terms with the fact that this year is going to go down as being awful.  If we get some decent snow, great.  But I'm setting the bar low so I can be pleasantly surprised rather than continuously disappointed.


----------



## skiberg (Feb 10, 2016)

Normally I would agree with you but when PSNH puts out a bulletin something is brewing.  


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----------



## skibumski (Feb 10, 2016)

ss20 said:


> No offense to BG but he posted ONE possibility of this storm and everyone cried goat and got their panties in a twist.
> 
> A few things that I see...
> 
> ...



^^ Agree completely.  Also interesting that the Canadian also has this thing much farther east already -- actually too far.  Somewhere in the middle is probably the sweet spot, but another offshore miss is still preferable to the wet stuff.

PSNH is looking at the same models as everyone else and trying to be prepared.  It's no wonder the bulletin came out right after the terrible ECMWF.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2016)

ss20 said:


> No offense to BG but he posted ONE possibility of this storm and everyone cried goat and got their panties in a twist.
> 
> A few things that I see...
> 
> ...



It's a model output, not a forecast.  That's what we do here, we discuss the model's predictions ahead of time so we know (ideally, hopefully, doesn't always work out) what's up.



VTKilarney said:


> At this point we are fighting for scraps just like some destitute Dickens character.  I've come to terms with the fact that this year is going to go down as being awful.  If we get some decent snow, great.  But I'm setting the bar low so I can be pleasantly surprised rather than continuously disappointed.



Agree 100%.  This season has been so bad that we cannot recover even to the average.  Even if we get some awesome snows from now until the end, it's going to be a below average (at best) to absolutely horrendous (at worst) season.


----------



## moguler6 (Feb 10, 2016)

This sucks.  I'm going to start rooting for worst winter.  According to Killington's web site their worst season since 1988 is 152" in 2012.  They're at 34".  I think we got it!


----------



## ss20 (Feb 10, 2016)

For the record, the latest GFS just put down 6-12 inches for areas north of I-84 spanning from the Poconos up to and through Maine.  Northern VT and northern NH get screwed... because it's running too far East.  

And if I'm still awake and post the results from the 11pm/00z GFS everything will be different. 

The good news is that the GFS is finally on board with this system.


----------



## Tin (Feb 10, 2016)

Given every system being further NW this cuts in and gives everyone rain lol. Seriously though, it's something to watch. Hopeful for a massive Berkie or Magic snow day once this year.


----------



## Tin (Feb 10, 2016)

And just for giggles, the Hab...clearly something brewing.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2016)

moguler6 said:


> This sucks.  I'm going to start rooting for worst winter.  According to Killington's web site their worst season since 1988 is 152" in 2012. * They're at 34". * I think we got it!



Wow, that's all?  I have way more than that in central/western NJ, and I live at < 400 feet!



Tin said:


> Given every system being further NW this cuts in and gives everyone rain lol. Seriously though, it's something to watch. Hopeful for a massive Berkie or Magic snow day once this year.



Well, not everyone.  Frankly, I'd take the GFS or the Canadian all day over what the Euro and the UK are predicting, which is doom and gloom.  If you offered me OTS right now, I'd take that, like surrender in blackjack to avoid the directly over Burlington track.  If this GFS verified, ADK, Vermont, and New Hampshire would get screwed yet again, but at least the Poconos, Cats, and Berk would get some snow.  Still a Lonnnnnnng way off though.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 10, 2016)

18z GFS was very nice for the Berkshires.  It has a low pretty close to the benchmark, Euro has a more amped low going over Burlington.  Maybe we can get something in between and a big hit for western New England


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 10, 2016)

This would be the end for me if it's all rain.  This winter has worn me down. Break out the sunscreen and board shorts!


----------



## ss20 (Feb 10, 2016)

After looking at the GFS out to 384 hours for shits and giggles... all I'm gonna say is... we're got _a lot_of shots for _precipitation_.  Alright class?  Who can guess the key word in that sentence?  _Precipitation_.

In all seriousness, it's a good thing these things are wrong whenever they're ~100 hours+ out, or else I'd call Noah and get the Ark built NOW!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2016)

00z GFS is in, and it shifts west, expands precipitation shield, fantastic run for all of ski country.

Ironically, while this appears to be awesome, I fear this might be bad news. 








EDIT:

Canuck comes west too, Gore / Whiteface jackpot were it to happen.  S.VT and parts of NH wouldnt be all snow, and this could be ugly for Poconos and Cats.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 11, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> 00z GFS is in, and it shifts west, expands precipitation shield, fantastic run for all of ski country.
> 
> Ironically, while this appears to be awesome, I fear this might be bad news.



Big time run for the snow starved nne resorts.  Let's stop this moving west right here! Hopefully the Euro goes east from the mid day run.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 11, 2016)

Canadian not as amped but sorta ugly for some and great for northern vt.  Runs the  low from NYC to Presque isle. This has many runs to go.  Should be a lot of fun to watch unfold.


----------



## boofenstien (Feb 11, 2016)

Crossing fingers, heading to Owl's Head Sutton mid-week then smuggs for the weekend.


----------



## Tin (Feb 11, 2016)

West again at 06z. Let's hope that movement stops ASAP. 

Globals have been god awful this year though. Less used models seem to be doing quite well. And, dare I say, the NAM has been juiced but better with tracks.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 11, 2016)

Tin said:


> West again at 06z. Let's hope that movement stops ASAP.
> 
> Globals have been god awful this year though. Less used models seem to be doing quite well. And, dare I say, the NAM has been juiced but better with tracks.



Yeah both the Euro and GFS haven't handled +nao well at all this winter.  Hard to pin point a track when there isn't blocking.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Feb 11, 2016)

Perfect...





At this point I'm almost rooting for a historically/comically bad winter


----------



## skibumski (Feb 11, 2016)

25 inch totals forecast in ski country by some models and people still rooting for a bad winter...

We're on a razor's edge for sure but I'm still seeing more likely than not that this breaks the right way.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Feb 11, 2016)

skibumski said:


> 25 inch totals forecast in ski country by some models and people still rooting for a bad winter...
> 
> We're on a razor's edge for sure but I'm still seeing more likely than not that this breaks the right way.



The razor has been pretty good at cutting the totals to virtually nothing this year in these parts (northern VT). I'm not holding my breath that the trend is changing. I'm in the "I'll be pleasantly surprised" boat if we end up getting enough snow to actually do something with.


----------



## drjeff (Feb 11, 2016)

ss20 said:


> After looking at the GFS out to 384 hours for shits and giggles... all I'm gonna say is... we're got _a lot_of shots for _precipitation_.  Alright class?  Who can guess the key word in that sentence?  _Precipitation_.
> 
> In all seriousness, it's a good thing these things are wrong whenever they're ~100 hours+ out, or else I'd call Noah and get the Ark built NOW!



Those 384's are kind of like "OK, lets see what this bit of energy passing over our heads TODAY does after it's done the around the world tour once and comes back!" ;-)

As you said though, the key in the long range trends is that it looks ACTIVE for precipitation chances!!  Time to start crossing fingers, toes, eyes, whatever you want to cross and make a few sacrifices to Ullr that the activity likely over the next few weeks in this part of the world will be heavy skewed to the snow side of the precipitation charts!!


----------



## skifree (Feb 11, 2016)

anyone want to trade some xanax for my remaining lift tix?


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 11, 2016)

I wonder if this ends up being a very wet snowy bomb for the northern greens and the daks. I don't like the look for eastern New England.


----------



## ChicoKat (Feb 11, 2016)

it could not look any worse...not sure this site is reliable


----------



## skibumski (Feb 11, 2016)

Yep, the 12z GFS and Canadian didn't look too good.  Still close to being okay but if it still looks this way tomorrow it's not looking good for white stuff.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Feb 11, 2016)

uke:uke:uke:uke:
uke:uke:uke:uke:
uke:uke:uke:uke:


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2016)

GFS and Canadian both cave to the Euro and Ukie.   

Unless this changes, it's precisely the doom and gloom for all of ski country that I feared.


----------



## Tin (Feb 11, 2016)

We fuked....


----------



## ChicoKat (Feb 11, 2016)

All is not lost, maybe the Jay Cloud and the Cannon Effect are joining forces over wildcat. http://www.snowforecast.com/resorts/4654-wildcat-mountain-ski-resort


----------



## from_the_NEK (Feb 11, 2016)

^isn't that where Tuna gets his weather forecast too? That worked out well last week.


----------



## wtcobb (Feb 11, 2016)

Scattered snow showers totaling four feet of snow! Ski at last, we can ski at last!

 :blink:


----------



## drjeff (Feb 11, 2016)

wtcobb said:


> Scattered snow showers totaling four feet of snow! Ski at last, we can ski at last!
> 
> :blink:



*Disclaimer* - Common Core math might of been used to arrive at those estimate totals


----------



## wa-loaf (Feb 11, 2016)

MRG is reporting 10-20" and still snowing.


----------



## ss20 (Feb 11, 2016)

I'm still not convinced that we're gonna die.  

1. These storms always trend towards the coast.
2. Considering how each model was showing something totally different yesterday, I'm not convinced this is our final track
3. Not buying a 60 degree temperature swing from Sunday morning to Tuesday night.


----------



## drjeff (Feb 11, 2016)

ss20 said:


> I'm still not convinced that we're gonna die.
> 
> 1. These storms always trend towards the coast.
> 2. Considering how each model was showing something totally different yesterday, I'm not convinced this is our final track
> 3. Not buying a 60 degree temperature swing from Sunday morning to Tuesday night.



#1 has more than been the case this year.  Overwhelmingly this year as the model runs progress and the actual storm time approaches, there's been a distinct shift East.  If this storm does that by 50 to 100 miles, then ski country does pretty well


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2016)

wtcobb said:


> Scattered snow showers totaling four feet of snow! Ski at last, we can ski at last!





drjeff said:


> *Disclaimer* - Common Core math might of been used to arrive at those estimate totals



Is that from the Fisher Price meteorology kit?


----------



## ss20 (Feb 11, 2016)

drjeff said:


> #1 has more than been the case this year.  Overwhelmingly this year as the model runs progress and the actual storm time approaches, there's been a distinct shift East.  If this storm does that by 50 to 100 miles, then ski country does pretty well



Yep.  How many storms have we lost by going "out-to-sea"?  How many storms have we lost "in-too-inland"?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2016)

drjeff said:


> *#1 has more than been the case this year.  Overwhelmingly this year as the model runs progress and the actual storm time approaches, there's been a distinct shift East.*  If this storm does that by 50 to 100 miles, then ski country does pretty well



I mentioned this yesterday, but that has not been the case at all, with the exception of the last 2 bits of energy that went OTS.    Almost every storm this year has "real world" moved to the west of guidance.  

It's a different thing altogether to say "at the last minute" it went east of the final guidance, but in the long and intermediate range they've moved west.   This one is too.  The GFS and Canadian are WAY west of the previous run, and the Euro just went bizarrely west (to the point I wonder if something is wrong with it).   

The best and most positive thing I can think to say, is that thank god it's 5 days away, but if the general idea here becomes reality, it's pretty catastrophic.  Nasty ice storm, torrential rains, sleet, high winds, and some snow.   I'm hoping for the best (obviously), but I'm pretty worried.


----------



## wtcobb (Feb 11, 2016)

ChicoKat said:


> All is not lost, maybe the Jay Cloud and the Cannon Effect are joining forces over wildcat.



Based on this forecast I'd say the meteorologist is experiencing more of the Scotty cloud.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2016)

One bit of good news (though I'm sort of reaching), the ECMWF ensembles are out, and they're as far west as roughly Niagara Falls, and as far east as the benchmark (i.e. it seems the model is incredibly confused).  And given how dramatically west the GFS and Canuck have moved, it seems like they're all confused.  Just pray for the best.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2016)

Just listened to Bernie Rayno's early read on this.  Looking at his chart, he thinks it will come in maybe 40'ish miles south and east of modeled.   

That would spare ADK and VT, but be bad for Poconos, Cats (though maybe Platty gets spared) and just pretty horrible for Berks.   It's not great for a lot of ski areas, but given how terrible this could be, I'd take his track and lock it in right now if I could.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 11, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> One bit of good news (though I'm sort of reaching), the ECMWF ensembles are out, and they're as far west as roughly Niagara Falls, and as far east as the benchmark (i.e. it seems the model is incredibly confused).  And given how dramatically west the GFS and Canuck have moved, it seems like they're all confused.  Just pray for the best.



GFS ensembles


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 11, 2016)

I'm assuming the mean


----------



## prsboogie (Feb 11, 2016)

skifree said:


> anyone want to trade some xanax for my remaining lift tix?



What time is kickoff?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2016)

18Z GFS comes even more west.  

 I wont post a picture, lest there be children watching.


----------



## WJenness (Feb 11, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> 18Z GFS comes even more west.
> 
> I wont post a picture, lest there be children watching.



Maybe it'll keep going west and rain in Detroit and we'll have a nice, sunny, spring skiing week?

#DailyDelusion


----------



## ss20 (Feb 11, 2016)

WJenness said:


> Maybe it'll keep going west and rain in Detroit and we'll have a nice, sunny, spring skiing week?
> 
> #DailyDelusion



Well, most of the rain is going to the west of the NYS Thruway... 3 inches of rain over there while the rest of ski country "escapes" with  1-2 inches of rain.



I'm holding out until tomorrow until I call this a washout.  Still hopeful.  


Anyone wanna make a thread for this storm?  Not too wintery but there's been enough discussion about it to warrant it's own spot.


----------



## ScottySkis (Feb 11, 2016)

Next year maybe time to book west vacation.
http://unofficialnetworks.com/2016/02/noaa-could-we-see-a-la-nina-for-next-season


----------



## from_the_NEK (Feb 11, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Well, most of the rain is going to the west of the NYS Thruway... 3 inches of rain over there while the rest of ski country "escapes" with  1-2 inches of rain.



At least we don't have enough snow on the ground that would melt and cause significant flooding.

#silverlinings


----------



## bigbog (Feb 11, 2016)

skiberg said:


> How far north is this thing going to go? I am driving to Tremblant Minimum, North Pole it I have to.



As of today....they're talking about a mix for us in Bangor so I think it'll be all snow up there....just my $.01 guess but....


----------



## ss20 (Feb 11, 2016)

We got our first Eastward tick on the 00z GFS!  Yea with me guys!  Yea!  Puts Southern VT and the Catskills back into play!  It's a start!  See y'all tomorrow morning!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2016)

ss20 said:


> We got our first Eastward tick on the 00z GFS!  Yea with me guys!  Yea! * Puts Southern VT and the Catskills back into play!*  It's a start!  See y'all tomorrow morning!



For a kayaking competition?  

Verbatim to 00z GFS run, the only ski area sparred the wrath is Whiteface.

At this point, I'd rather have a kick west and take my survivable lumps, than roll the dice risking "not enough" of an eastern shift and flirt with potentially disastrous consequences.  That's a "Do you feel lucky punk?" sortof a thing.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2016)

Hide the women and children.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2016)

On the bright side.....   00z Canuck shifts way back east again.

For reference sake, this is the WORST of the time panels.  Sure, absolutely terrible for Maine, bad for NH, but everyone else is sparred destruction.  I'd take this and run.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 12, 2016)

I'd hit this... Not for here but for Northern Vermont and especially the Daks.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> I'd hit this... Not for here but for Northern Vermont and especially the Daks.



Well if you're gonna' get all greedy and go Kuchera on us, you might as well go with the GFS.  Three feet by Whiteface.   That's about the only way Lookout Mountain's going to open.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 12, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> For a kayaking competition?
> 
> Verbatim to 00z GFS run, the only ski area sparred the wrath is Whiteface.
> 
> At this point, I'd rather have a kick west and take my survivable lumps, than roll the dice risking "not enough" of an eastern shift and flirt with potentially disastrous consequences.  That's a "Do you feel lucky punk?" sortof a thing.



At this point it's a matter of playing to win or playing not to lose.  Hope for shift west, lighter rain, dryslot etc. Equals not losing. I hope for a shift east, watch the pouring rain out my window but man it just might be ripping at the top of Madonna.... Maybe just maybe we get a win for once this winter.  I'll take my hope and run with it.  If it fails so be it, spring training starts soon.


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 12, 2016)

Canuck came east. Catskills and southern VT still very much on the edge though.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 12, 2016)

Euro came east a little.  The GFS came east and then went back west from 00z to 6z.


----------



## fcksummer (Feb 12, 2016)

We need a mod to lock this thread and throw it away. It's sucked ass all year.


----------



## Kleetus (Feb 12, 2016)

If this pans out the way it's looking have a very good excuse to go to WF for the first time in a few years now that I'm back within striking distance.


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 12, 2016)

Wanting to get to Vermont or the Adirondacks. Need to make a decision soon. Looking like Gore will be in the clear? Would they have anything worth while open? I know its been a brutal year for them.


----------



## skibumski (Feb 12, 2016)

Long range pattern looking tasty for the end of the month...


----------



## soulglo (Feb 12, 2016)

what a bust


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 14, 2016)

Not to be any more doom and gloom than is necessary, but this better not be correct.


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 14, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Not to be any more doom and gloom than is necessary, but this better not be correct.



Meh.

At this point I think its best to just look towards next year. El Nino is finally dying and the silver lining is that next year pretty much has to be better, even if only through regression towards the mean.


----------



## Smellytele (Feb 15, 2016)

Maybe another St Patrick's day where it is almost 80?


----------



## andrec10 (Feb 15, 2016)

Smellytele said:


> Maybe another St Patrick's day where it is almost 80?



Don't encourage Mother Nature!:-?


----------



## NYDB (Feb 15, 2016)

Friday 2/19 night into saturday is starting to look very interesting.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 15, 2016)

NY DirtBag said:


> Friday 2/19 night into saturday is starting to look very interesting.



Could be a nice terrain enhanced blast of snow.  Anything is good right now.  2/26 is worth watching as well.


----------



## timmyc (Feb 15, 2016)

...


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 17, 2016)

> *Judah Cohen*     ‏@*judah47
> 
> *                                                                     GFS ensembles growing more confident of fully coupled stratosphere-troposphere  negative AO starting month's end



Better late than never.  Holy crap.


----------



## hammer (Feb 18, 2016)

Don't want to start another thread at this point but I've read that the system coming in tomorrow evening (2/19) might overperform...nothing major but anything to refresh the existing hardpack surfaces would be welcome.


----------



## delco714 (Feb 18, 2016)

hammer said:


> Don't want to start another thread at this point but I've read that the system coming in tomorrow evening (2/19) might overperform...nothing major but anything to refresh the existing hardpack surfaces would be welcome.


That'd be super. The wife and I are finally headed back to our cabin at sugarloaf..only 2nd time all season..and hoping for decent come back


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 18, 2016)

hammer said:


> Don't want to start another thread at this point but I've read that the system coming in tomorrow evening (2/19) might overperform...nothing major but anything to refresh the existing hardpack surfaces would be welcome.



Looked like rain. Seeing temps in the 40s for the weekend.


----------



## Smellytele (Feb 19, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> Looked like rain. Seeing temps in the 40s for the weekend.



The snow is on the front end of the warm front. Most precip should be done by the time it warms up


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 19, 2016)

Tonight could surprise someone in the mountains.  Northern Greens and Whites.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 19, 2016)

Pattern for the first couple weeks of March looks very good.  Might be the time nne mountain play a little catchup.


----------



## Savemeasammy (Feb 19, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> Pattern for the first couple weeks of March looks very good.  Might be the time nne mountain play a little catchup.



How many times this season have we thought "the pattern looks good..."?!




Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 19, 2016)

Savemeasammy said:


> How many times this season have we thought "the pattern looks good..."?!



You can lead a horse to h2o, but you cant make it drink.  The NAO is about to negative, blocking will be in place, cold is coming, for however horrible the season has been, the best scenario of the winter will finally be in place.


----------



## Savemeasammy (Feb 19, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> You can lead a horse to h2o, but you cant make it drink.  The NAO is about to negative, blocking will be in place, cold is coming, for however horrible the season has been, the best scenario of the winter will finally be in place.



I will remain hopeful.  As usual.  

Why not...?


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## from_the_NEK (Feb 19, 2016)

Its gonna rain!







If I keep posting this eventually I have to be wrong, right? ;-)


----------



## WJenness (Feb 19, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> You can lead a horse to h2o, but you cant make it drink.  The NAO is about to negative, blocking will be in place, cold is coming, for however horrible the season has been, the best scenario of the winter will finally be in place.



Just in time for me to go to Utah... Hopefully I will come home to something nice. (And my flights won't get screwed up.)


----------



## delco714 (Feb 19, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> Tonight could surprise someone in the mountains.  Northern Greens and Whites.


And sugarloaf?!


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 19, 2016)

delco714 said:


> And sugarloaf?!



Looks decent for Sugarloaf too.  Someone could get more than 6 inches.  Ends with some warmth in the end.  Very late March feel to it.


----------



## delco714 (Feb 20, 2016)

Well we got 3-4" of snow so far. Very close to rain. It is heavy and thick like wet sand though


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 21, 2016)

A few more tease jobs are popping up on the long-range.  

Not that I really care. 

 I haven't been posting much in the weather forum this week, as I've finally wizened up and have reached "acceptance" on the Kubler-Ross model.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 21, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> A few more tease jobs are popping up on the long-range.
> 
> Not that I really care.
> 
> I haven't been posting much in the weather forum this week, as I've finally wizened up and have reached "acceptance" on the Kubler-Ross model.



Next Sunday looks like a decent shot for NNE.


----------



## ChicoKat (Feb 22, 2016)

The long range GFS has a number of systems with a track keeping us on the snow side. this one most notably. Its way out there no question but we can still hope for this winter to somewhat right itself...can't we.


----------



## Abubob (Feb 22, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


>





ChicoKat said:


> The long range GFS has a number of systems with a track keeping us on the snow side. this one most notably. Its way out there no question but we can still hope for this winter to somewhat right itself...can't we.


There's no doubt that there's plenty of moisture to produce a large snowstorm but the fact is that the GFS has had a number in long range snowstorms that just didn't pan out. But hey - anything's possible. R i i i i i ght.


----------



## WJenness (Feb 22, 2016)

:angry::flame::flame::flame::flame::angry:

:beer::beer:
uke:uke:uke:


----------



## ChicoKat (Feb 22, 2016)

So much for March 4th. Fun while it lasted. Latest GFS run comes up empty compared to previous. Over and out


----------



## andrec10 (Feb 22, 2016)

We should just give up and look forward to next year!


----------



## JDMRoma (Feb 22, 2016)

ChicoKat said:


> So much for March 4th. Fun while it lasted. Latest GFS run comes up empty compared to previous. Over and out



At Least its not Rain ! Nice Map BTW !


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 22, 2016)

LOL @ posting 252 hour GFS panels.   Please stop.


----------



## ss20 (Feb 22, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> LOL @ posting 252 hour GFS panels.   Please stop.



Desperation is setting in :lol:

Next Monday?  Nice little refresher, perhaps?


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 22, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Desperation is setting in :lol:
> 
> Next Monday?  Nice little refresher, perhaps?



Canadian and GFS both have events for Monday! So that means basically nothing.


----------



## ss20 (Feb 22, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> Canadian and GFS both have events for Monday! So that means basically nothing.



We're at the timeframe where we'll have a couple runs give us a foot+, then the next day they'll all show a 500 mile shift west.  Because that never happens right?


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 22, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Desperation is setting in :lol:
> 
> Next Monday?  Nice little refresher, perhaps?



Refresher implying there's anything to be refreshed to begin with...


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 22, 2016)

ss20 said:


> We're at the timeframe where we'll have a couple runs give us a foot+, then the next day they'll all show a 500 mile shift west.  Because that never happens right?



It's maddening really.


----------



## mriceyman (Feb 23, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> It's maddening really.



I really think it a weather pattern never seen or sampled by the models and they dont have a clue how to pick it up


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## jack97 (Feb 23, 2016)

mriceyman said:


> I really think it a weather pattern never seen or sampled by the models and they dont have a clue how to pick it up



That's what I'm thinking as well. We have long cycles of the AMO, PDO and the ~11 yr el nino cycle. Now the scientists in the field are calling for workshop papers on the Arctic oscillation to better predict this cycle. Yes, its a 2014 workshop but it tells me we don't have a clue on prediction of this oscillation yet. 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/events/2014/arctic-predictions-science/


Could be the models have never seen the alignment of these phases until now.


----------



## ss20 (Feb 24, 2016)

Next Thursday-Friday...holy shit how many times can we get rain in one season?


----------



## ChicoKat (Feb 24, 2016)

last year around this time it was all Southern NE. This year 2 and what could be 3 in row up thru NY. Seems like Northern NE is in a no fly zone.


----------



## gmcunni (Feb 24, 2016)

sucks. . .


----------



## from_the_NEK (Feb 24, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Next Thursday-Friday...holy shit how many times can we get rain in one season?



All of them!





This is the worst thing I've ever seen. I'm glad I didn't pay for it. Let's go to the beach.


----------



## JDMRoma (Feb 24, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Next Thursday-Friday...holy shit how many times can we get rain in one season?



Are you saying next week too ? Or was this in reference to this weeks Melt down ?


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## ss20 (Feb 24, 2016)

JDMRoma said:


> Are you saying next week too ? Or was this in reference to this weeks Melt down ?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Next week.  I know it's far out but I'm going on my skiing vacation that weekend so this is "my storm" so to say ;-)

If it turns to snow you'll hear it from me!


----------



## JDMRoma (Feb 24, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Next week.  I know it's far out but I'm going on my skiing vacation that weekend so this is "my storm" so to say ;-)
> 
> If it turns to snow you'll hear it from me!



Wow that totally sucks. Weekly rain now. My liver can't take anymore !!
Arghhh !!


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## JDMRoma (Feb 24, 2016)

The latest STE forecast confirms next weeks storm. Totally blows this year !


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----------



## bzrperfspec77 (Feb 24, 2016)

JDMRoma said:


> The latest STE forecast confirms next weeks storm. Totally blows this year !
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Damn you TK!


----------



## wa-loaf (Feb 24, 2016)

http://sadtrombone.com/


----------



## Not Sure (Feb 24, 2016)




----------



## delco714 (Feb 24, 2016)

Whatever weather b.s.. I'm over it. Cancun in 16 days.


----------



## deadheadskier (Feb 25, 2016)

Patterns shifting


----------



## JDMRoma (Feb 25, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> Patterns shitting



There fixed it for you !


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----------



## Smellytele (Feb 25, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> Patterns shifting



Right just like the last 6 times.


----------



## deadheadskier (Feb 25, 2016)

JDMRoma said:


> There fixed it for you !
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Oh look, they shitted again!


----------



## ss20 (Feb 25, 2016)

Models flinging sh!t at the fan seeing where it will stick for next week.  They can't even get consistent on the TIMING of the storm, let alone the precipitation.  Canadian, which had been all "doom and gloom" the past couple of days shifted to a more favorable outcome today.  GFS brought the storm a full 24 hours ahead of previous runs, in ONE run.  GFS has been switching from all rain to mostly rain the past couple of days... but brought 2-3 FEET of snow across NY, VT, NH, and Maine... with considerable snow going down all the way to the CT-MA border.

So go skiing this weekend, and pay no attention to any weather forecast you see till at least Monday.


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 25, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Models flinging sh!t at the fan seeing where it will stick for next week.  They can't even get consistent on the TIMING of the storm, let alone the precipitation.  Canadian, which had been all "doom and gloom" the past couple of days shifted to a more favorable outcome today.  GFS brought the storm a full 24 hours ahead of previous runs, in ONE run.  GFS has been switching from all rain to mostly rain the past couple of days... but brought 2-3 FEET of snow across NY, VT, NH, and Maine... with considerable snow going down all the way to the CT-MA border.
> 
> So go skiing this weekend, and pay no attention to any weather forecast you see till at least Monday.



There actually might be high pressure in Canada to help keep the storm all snow for many.  Seems as well there could be multiple shots the week after that.  I'll wait a few days for the disappoint to start setting in.


----------



## mriceyman (Feb 25, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> There actually might be high pressure in Canada to help keep the storm all snow for many.  Seems as well there could be multiple shots the week after that.  I'll wait a few days for the disappoint to start setting in.



It will suck us in to break us down .. Maybe well get lucky


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## WoodCore (Feb 25, 2016)

One sure way to make the snow go away would be to start a new thread about.


----------



## skibumski (Feb 28, 2016)

Get your skiing in while you still can. Models showing ~70 degree temperatures in the 11-15 range


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 28, 2016)

Tremblant still looking good on both CMC & GFS this week.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 28, 2016)

skibumski said:


> Models showing ~70 degree temperatures in the 11-15 range



Too early to panic.


----------



## ALLSKIING (Feb 28, 2016)

Can't trust the models they are completely unreliable at this point....have to look elsewhere.


----------



## deadheadskier (Feb 28, 2016)

Patterns shifting


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 29, 2016)

Euro is a good hit for Northern Vermont.  Quick hitter storm.


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## bdfreetuna (Feb 29, 2016)

Weather.com is looking around 10" for Jay and Townships.

6-8"+ Sugarbush / Stowe

Maybe half a foot for K town with a bit more ice mix.

Even some overall accumulation in So Vt.


----------



## Smellytele (Feb 29, 2016)

bdfreetuna said:


> Weather.com is looking around 10" for Jay and Townships.
> 
> 6-8"+ Sugarbush / Stowe
> 
> ...



Hmm? Sick day


----------



## Smellytele (Feb 29, 2016)

Smellytele said:


> Hmm? Sick day



Damn just noticed who posted that map...


----------



## steamboat1 (Feb 29, 2016)

*Single Chair Weather Blog*

[h=2]Monday, February 29, 2016[/h]                           [h=3]Wednesday's storm shifts slightly north again and the results are not especially exciting. [/h]   
  Another day and another potential storm makes a critical northward  shift. Though with this upcoming Wednesday storm, the shift is not as  dramatic, the consequences sing a familiar tune including less snow and  more sleet and freezing rain. At least the mild weather Monday will give  way to a stretch of subfreezing temperatures that should persist  through the first full weekend in March. Beyond that, some troubling  signs are emerging. 


Here is the situation with Wednesday. The storm is a garden variety  weather system which will organize Tuesday in the Ohio Valley and head  northeastward. Like many of its predecessors, this is a storm that could  have provided much of the Vermont ski country with a nice 8-14 but this  was predicated on a storm track over central New England. Once again,  the forecasted storm track has shifted slightly north so that the center  of the storm moves over southern Vermont. It was a subtle and seemingly  small shift but we had little room to play with as indicated in the  last update. The result still includes a few inches of snow early  Wednesday morning followed by a period of sleet and freezing rain around  daybreak. The best precipitation with this storm however will be over  Quebec and southeast Ontario. From the standpoint of snowfall, it is  typically problematic to be too close to the center of central lowest  pressure. In the parlance of "weather geek speak" it is the "shaft zone"  but the simpler scientific description would be to call it the "dry  slot".  By midday Wednesday morning, I think much of central Vermont  including MRG is precipitation-free. Later in the day, some minimal wrap  around moisture could allow for some snowfall but I wouldn't expect  much more than an inch. Overall the storm is another dud; 2-5 inches of  snow and ice and more ice farther south and more snow farther north.


What is with these northward shifts, they are killing us ? No doubt.  Actually sometimes the "northward shift" brings snowfall when we expect  nothing. In early March 2001, there was a conventional wisdom in the  forecasting community of a big snowstorm for the big east coast cities  and partly cloudy for Vermont. 5 days later, northern Vermont was  putting the finishing touches on a 50-70 inch dump. This year however,  we have seemingly been the focal point for a bunch of argumentative  weather situations and about lost every one. The ice-free and relatively  warm Great Lakes has been a major problem here. They are pulling some  of these weather systems northward and the models are having a tough  time resolving all of this until very late in the forecasting game. 


The end of the week we will be spat on as another Mid-Atlantic storm  deposits snowfall well south of us. This storm could also make a  northward jump late, and it may do so, but it would have to move about  300 miles farther north for Vermont to get the good snowfall. Instead,  we are expecting dry and cold in the period beginning Thursday and  ending Saturday. On Sunday, the polar jet, will start to recede but may  deliver one last clipper system before doing to which could result in  some snowfall though models don't agree on that as of yet. 


What models do agree on now is a March thaw which will commence around  March 8th and continue for several days. The European was teasing us  with a total capitulation of winter for several days though it has  backed off somewhat this morning. What seems likely is that winter makes  a substantial retreat and the minimal Vermont snowpack is once again  dented. It does seem possible that a stormier pattern emerges by the  middle of March with a return to more seasonable temperatures around  March 12th-14th but there are no indications of glaring cold weather  support. The thaw should peak out around March 10th and 11th and could  include readings in the 60's for a day or two.


----------



## nhskier1969 (Feb 29, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> [h=2]Monday, February 29, 2016[/h]                           [h=3]Wednesday's storm shifts slightly north again and the results are not especially exciting. [/h]
> Another day and another potential storm makes a critical northward  shift. Though with this upcoming Wednesday storm, the shift is not as  dramatic, the consequences sing a familiar tune including less snow and  more sleet and freezing rain. At least the mild weather Monday will give  way to a stretch of subfreezing temperatures that should persist  through the first full weekend in March. Beyond that, some troubling  signs are emerging.
> 
> 
> ...



I read that also "this morning".  Looking at some of the forecast models and most of them are predicting more snow than they were this morning.  Hopefully they are right and the track is 50 miles further south.


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 29, 2016)

What exactly causes this? Seems all the storms this year have shifted to a north/western track.


----------



## Tin (Feb 29, 2016)

No block = models suck


----------



## jack97 (Feb 29, 2016)

Rowsdower said:


> What exactly causes this? Seems all the storms this year have shifted to a north/western track.



Go to weatherbell site, Bastardi usually gives a weekly summary of how the pattern are unfolding. He's saying that the present Arctic patterns (areas of ridging and blocking) are analogs to the patterns seen in 1958. In addition, all the models have fallen short of their long term (~ 1 week) skill.


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## steamboat1 (Feb 29, 2016)

My weather guru here in NYC (very accurate by the way) says we're cooked after this weekend. This is not the forecast for New England but for NYC. Can't see it being much better up north. Talking sustained 60-70 degree weather down here starting next week. Striped Bass should be here early this year.


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## 〽❄❅ (Feb 29, 2016)

Look at the Bow Tie's forecast map Fri - Sat 1:50sec in - 
http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/?zipCode=19101


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## 〽❄❅ (Mar 1, 2016)

Tues/Wed fizzling out fast, Fri trending South :[


----------



## NYDB (Mar 1, 2016)

Early MTB season up north with all the snow gone by Easter.


----------



## bzrperfspec77 (Mar 1, 2016)

NY DirtBag said:


> Early MTB season up north with all the snow gone by Easter.



New dirtbike on the way... I was hoping when I bought it that it would buck the trend and that it would bring the snow back to the northeast, but it looks like I will be riding it earlier than I thought!


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## JDMRoma (Mar 1, 2016)

In a last ditch effort Im taking my snow tires off. Certainly don't need them right now so off they come !


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## deadheadskier (Mar 1, 2016)

My snows are on their last gasp. Almost wrecked in Stowe a couple weeks ago.  I've got a back up pair in storage, but I may go straight to summers as well


----------



## yeggous (Mar 1, 2016)

I'm at the shop right now getting new summer tires for my SUV. Snows coming off. I'll be changing over my truck too this week.


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## ss20 (Mar 1, 2016)

Enjoy this weekend, folks.


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## JDMRoma (Mar 1, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Enjoy this weekend, folks.
> 
> View attachment 19351



Spring skiing next week ! Fuck it ! I'm in for a few days 


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## andrec10 (Mar 1, 2016)

Time to break out the rock skis after next week!


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## wtcobb (Mar 1, 2016)

I ran over a skunk on the way home last night. Aside from the immediate anguish of having my car reek, it was a live reminder that spring is here far too early. Even the animals know it.


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## VTKilarney (Mar 1, 2016)

〽❄❅;939763 said:
			
		

> Tues/Wed fizzling out fast, Fri trending South :[



Tuna jinxed us by predicting a nice base building storm.


----------



## andrec10 (Mar 1, 2016)

The fat lady is warming up!


----------



## NYDB (Mar 1, 2016)

andrec10 said:


> Time to break out the rock skis after next week!



never had a chance to put them away this winter


----------



## andrec10 (Mar 1, 2016)

NY DirtBag said:


> never had a chance to put them away this winter



Kudos to Hunter, since we were able to!


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 1, 2016)

andrec10 said:


> The fat lady is warming up!



She is going to be in full form by next week :flame:


----------



## deadheadskier (Mar 1, 2016)

NY DirtBag said:


> never had a chance to put them away this winter



Pretty much.  I bought new skis I love, but the conditions are so crappy I've mainly been skiing my old skis.  I don't dislike the Fischers and they've still got a lot of life in them.  It's mainly been a decision to preserve the life of the new skis.


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## Smellytele (Mar 1, 2016)

After my upcoming trip to CO I may be done at a pitiful 26 days.


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 1, 2016)

I just received word the fat lady was sighted !


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## snoseek (Mar 1, 2016)

Get to California next week or the week after.

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## 〽❄❅ (Mar 1, 2016)

VTKilarney said:


> Tuna jinxed us by predicting a nice base building storm.


I think TWC hired Tuna! 
They now forecast 100% 8"-12" tonight for Wildcat and 100% 5"-8" for Bretton Woods! 
Go Tuna!


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## fcksummer (Mar 1, 2016)

Yay, snow! Take that fat lady :uzi:


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 1, 2016)

Sure, put the L directly over the state of Vermont.  Why not....


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 1, 2016)

That right there might be the single-most kick in the nuts weather graphic I've ever seen.


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## NYDB (Mar 1, 2016)

I know it's a ways off but holy shit from 3/8 on looks like worst case scenario.


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## wtcobb (Mar 1, 2016)

It's bad when you're relieved with sleet.


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## VTKilarney (Mar 1, 2016)

from_the_NEK said:


> That right there might be the single-most kick in the nuts weather graphic I've ever seen.


I don't know.  We've seen a few like it already this season.

Here is how this season has gone:
But January may turn things around...
But February may turn things around...
But March may turn things around...


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## andrec10 (Mar 1, 2016)




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## from_the_NEK (Mar 1, 2016)

VTKilarney said:


> I don't know.  We've seen a few like it already this season.
> 
> Here is how this season has gone:
> But January may turn things around...
> ...



But that graphic in particular, with the green wedge of rain shooting perfectly up into VT, is the icing on the cake for this season.


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## bigbog (Mar 1, 2016)

yeggous said:


> I'm at the shop right now getting new summer tires for my SUV. Snows coming off. I'll be changing over my truck too this week.



Taking a little frustration out by tempting(better word?) Motha' Nature?  When you head out tomorrow morning...take it easy...but don't forget _*PICS!.*_...if you slide off the road and into a tree yeggous:lol:


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## Los (Mar 1, 2016)

from_the_NEK said:


> But that graphic in particular, with the green wedge of rain shooting perfectly up into VT, is the icing on the cake for this season.



Please don't misinterpret the map -- Vermont is not being singled out. Except for Wildcat maybe (?), it's pure garbage for NH too. This season has been nightmarish and I'm confident it will go down as THE worst ski season in living memory. At this point I'm kind of rooting for it. If it's going to be awful, at least let's be able to say it was the WORST (at least for now). 

The short term good news is that next season will unquestionably be better since -- despite long term warming -- we won't have the evil el nino factor. Having said that, I still can't decipher how la nina will affect us. I can't find any clear answers based on my feeble internet searching skills....


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 1, 2016)

Los said:


> Please don't misinterpret the map -- Vermont is not being singled out. Except for Wildcat maybe (?), it's pure garbage for NH too.


Not misinterpreting the map. I know that is only a single panel out of a series that make up the entire output of the storm prediction. I just like how that one panel has the wedge of rain so perfectly centered on VT. The next panel probably has NH in mostly green and yellow too.


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## wtcobb (Mar 1, 2016)

The next panel will probably resemble a giant middle finger over all of New England.


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 1, 2016)

I wouldn't rule out Northern VT mountains with decent elevation (most of them besides Burke) as a mostly if not all snow event, even if it's less than it looked like a few days ago.

Forecasts I'm looking at are guessing above 2000 feet should remain snow for the duration.

I'd go skiing in No VT, No NH or Maine this weekend because this might be the best shot for the rest of the season.


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## ChicoKat (Mar 1, 2016)




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## bdfreetuna (Mar 1, 2016)




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## BenedictGomez (Mar 1, 2016)

If the models do hold,and you want good conditions this weekend, Mont Tremblant is the only serious choice.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 1, 2016)

from_the_NEK said:


> But that graphic in particular, with the green wedge of rain shooting perfectly up into VT, is the icing on the cake for this season.



The Canuck is entirely missing south, and sadly, an entire MISS for the n.VT is now the better option.    Has some support from the not-quite-in-range NAM too.


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## ss20 (Mar 1, 2016)

Just a 50 mile shift north for Friday could mean the Flatland resorts do great, with S VT and NH making out with SOMETHING as well.      The ski resort accountants and Ullr know we need it...


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## The Sneak (Mar 1, 2016)

Since my dog died last summer, skiing has literally been the only thing that makes me happy. Period.

And we get this sh1t sandwich of a season. 

Wonderful!


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## delco714 (Mar 1, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> If the models do hold,and you want good conditions this weekend, Mont Tremblant is the only serious choice.


It appears sugarloaf and Sunday river fall into the >6" range, no?


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## mriceyman (Mar 1, 2016)

wtcobb said:


> I ran over a skunk on the way home last night. Aside from the immediate anguish of having my car reek, it was a live reminder that spring is here far too early. Even the animals know it.



The animals always know before us


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## catsup948 (Mar 2, 2016)

This is about all the hope I have left... Epic March and April.


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 2, 2016)

Sugarloaf has 5" and counting. Jay has 4" and still coming down. 6" and counting at Wildcat.

Mid NH / Mid VT got an inch or two with a mix but didn't get hurt.

So VT, Mass and points south mostly got an icing or a soaking.


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## Tin (Mar 2, 2016)

The Sneak said:


> Since my dog died last summer, skiing has literally been the only thing that makes me happy. Period.
> 
> And we get this sh1t sandwich of a season.
> 
> ...



So sorry to hear. Hope for a good corn harvest in the upcoming weeks.


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## VTKilarney (Mar 2, 2016)

I still have a ticket to burn at Bromont.  It looks like the Eastern Townships didn't do well.  

Sutton, for example says this in today's snow report:
24 hour snowfall: 1cm
Surface : packed, granular, mogul, firm, variable, windblown
Base : firm, icy, hard
Coverage : thin (natural snow), complete (man-made snow)

Bromont got double the snow Sutton got.  2cm, lol!


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## wtcobb (Mar 2, 2016)

Rain turning to snow in Franconia. Total wash out this morning.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 2, 2016)

So much snow is expected in the Sierras, I think they broke the GFS snowfall model.

Pure snow porn depiction.


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## wtcobb (Mar 2, 2016)

Woah. I thought I was looking at a weird belt of no snow for a second. How much for a flight to Reno?


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 2, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> So much snow is expected in the Sierras, I think they broke the GFS snowfall model.
> 
> Pure snow porn depiction.



I just keep telling myself East Coast is where the hardcore is at, and it's best to treat myself to western locations only once in a while not to spoil myself.

That said... we did update our RCI timeshare membership so that I can basically go anywhere in the world for $19 a night. Tahoe, Park City, Big Sky and western Canada are all on the radar for next season.


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## skibumski (Mar 2, 2016)

Does that say 95 inches in the general vicinity of Mammoth?  Good God.


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## wtcobb (Mar 2, 2016)

Looks like Southwest is wise to the weather, and the snow woes.


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## 4aprice (Mar 2, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> So much snow is expected in the Sierras, I think they broke the GFS snowfall model.
> 
> Pure snow porn depiction.



A lot of that snow will make its way over to Utah and Colorado as well.  March and April produce in most seasons in the Rockies and its why I always plan my trips accordingly.  Great way to wrap up the season and always give me something to look forward to.  Who knows what I will ski this weekend (prob Pa since I still don't think it's worth going north but Vermont is not out of the question) but its all warm up for the big trip at the end anyways.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## dlague (Mar 2, 2016)

wtcobb said:


> Looks like Southwest is wise to the weather, and the snow woes.



They were for us $822 RT for three to CO.


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## Bene288 (Mar 2, 2016)

And I just got back from Tahoe..


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## Edd (Mar 2, 2016)

Headed to Tahoe in less than 2 weeks. Definitely the year to go there; our group is pumped by the forecasts.


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## snoseek (Mar 2, 2016)

We have been through many years of shit. This is redemtion. 

Sent from my LG-H345 using Tapatalk


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## snoseek (Mar 2, 2016)

Edd said:


> Headed to Tahoe in less than 2 weeks. Definitely the year to go there; our group is pumped by the forecasts.


Did you end up on north or south lake. Im usually off tuesday and wesnesday but ski most days. Plan on coming down south one of those days. Ive got some half off vouchers for you....and some other stuff lol

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## Edd (Mar 2, 2016)

We've rented a house about 10 minutes out of South Lake Tahoe towards Kirkwood. We need to hook up, for sure. You don't live on the South side? I assumed you did.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 2, 2016)

4aprice said:


> A lot of that snow will make its way over to Utah and Colorado as well.



Well, not according to their algorithm it's not.


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## 4aprice (Mar 2, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Well, not according to their algorithm it's not.



Watch.  It doesn't need to snow 200" for it to be great.  As a matter of fact I was there for a week one time when it snowed over 100" and it wasn't as great as you would think.  Its better when it comes in say 10-20" increments.  The quality of snow is better in the Rockies as well, thus its called such things as champagne powder or cold smoke as opposed to Sierra Cement.  March and April are as snowy as it gets out there and this year looks like its setting up to be an epic spring.  Believe me the skiing will be epic when you get out there.  Just booked my trip for Utah between the 1st and 5th then on to Colorado through the 9th.  Can't wait.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## ss20 (Mar 2, 2016)

4aprice said:


> Watch.  It doesn't need to snow 200" for it to be great.  As a matter of fact I was there for a week one time when it snowed over 100" and it wasn't as great as you would think.  Its better when it comes in say 10-20" increments.  The quality of snow is better in the Rockies as well, thus its called such things as champagne powder or cold smoke as opposed to Sierra Cement.  March and April are as snowy as it gets out there and this year looks like its setting up to be an epic spring.  Believe me the skiing will be epic when you get out there.  Just booked my trip for Utah between the 1st and 5th then on to Colorado through the 9th.  Can't wait.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



BG doesn't car- he'll be skipping work Friday to ski that epic Pocono powder!  He knows where to go! :grin:


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## snoseek (Mar 2, 2016)

Edd said:


> We've rented a house about 10 minutes out of South Lake Tahoe towards Kirkwood. We need to hook up, for sure. You don't live on the South side? I assumed you did.


Sorry bad wording. You probably are off pioneer going towards meyers. Thats actually my hood.

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## snoseek (Mar 2, 2016)

Also: 100 inch weeks are sometimes a pain because everything closes up. Ill defend sierra snow all day. When its hammering snow by the foot and you have kirkwood or squaw terrain surfy dense pow is a dream. Sometimes it comes as blower. All of december was foot and foot of blower. It is way too hot here in general though.

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## Edd (Mar 3, 2016)

snoseek said:


> Sorry bad wording. You probably are off pioneer going towards meyers. Thats actually my hood.
> 
> Sent from my LG-H345 using Tapatalk



Wow, you are correct. It's a bad ass looking house and you've met a couple of the folks I'll be with.


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 3, 2016)

WCAX in VT posted this photo to their website yesterday. 





Yet another reminder of how awesome this winter has been.


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## bigbog (Mar 3, 2016)

12deg @10:25am in Bangor this morning....isn't this how February is supposed to be like..?  Would be wild if March-June became our coldest months during this El' Nino...  Quebec in June can be cold...

Quite the pic ft_NEK, now that is real ice...


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 3, 2016)

from_the_NEK said:


> WCAX in VT posted this photo to their website yesterday.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Well at least that makes me feel a little bit better about my winter driving this year..


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## yeggous (Mar 3, 2016)

bdfreetuna said:


> Well at least that makes me feel a little bit better about my winter driving this year..



Post of the day.


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## bigbog (Mar 3, 2016)

bdfreetuna said:


> Well at least that makes me feel a little bit better about my winter driving this year..



:lol::lol::lol:


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## dlague (Mar 3, 2016)

So.......  Is this denial from Ski Vermont?  Just got this email from them which i am sure others may have received too.

*Lion vs. Lamb*
March has arrived, which means our favorite part of the season is rolling in. In the last week, Vermont resorts reported up to 18 inches of new snow while continuing their extended snowmaking efforts. Cold temperatures today are preserving the trails for this weekend’s anticipated sunny days and more comfortable thermometer readings. Soft snow and spring-like conditions are right around the corner and, thanks to resorts’ epic snowmaking efforts this season, spring skiing and riding is expected to last into May at some resorts. (Read up about Vermont’s current snow conditions in the great articles linked in the text.)

A long spring season means you’ll have plenty of time to enjoy long sunny days, lots of soft turns and tons of fun events at resorts across Vermont. Resorts organized an endless schedule of events this month with something fun happening for everyone in your group: choose adventure races and competitions or hone your skills in one of many types of clinics – celebrate the season’s holidays with events to help ring in Mardi Gras, St. Paddy’s Day and Easter -- soak in the season with pond skimming, cookouts and live music – or tap into maple sugaring season. Find details on these and more events at skivermont.com/events and visit skivermont.com/deals for sweet savings.

You'll want to keep an eye on the conditions and trail updates at skivermont.com/conditions. This winter has been a wild ride, but there is still lots of ski and snowboard season left to be had here in the Green Mountains, with perhaps the sweetest days yet ahead of us.


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## 4aprice (Mar 3, 2016)

snoseek said:


> Also: 100 inch weeks are sometimes a pain because everything closes up. *Ill defend sierra snow all day. *When its hammering snow by the foot and you have kirkwood or squaw terrain surfy dense pow is a dream. Sometimes it comes as blower. All of december was foot and foot of blower. It is way too hot here in general though.
> 
> Sent from my LG-H345 using Tapatalk



Did not mean to disrespect Sierra snow at all, just tell the difference after traversing the desert between Reno and Salt Lake.  Kirkwood and Squaw (In fact Tahoe in general) are on my radar for a visit in the future.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 3, 2016)

I'm just glad to know Tahoe and the Sierras aren't stuck in a long term drought. I was hoping to go to Tahoe in the next couple years but had backed off the plans.


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## snoseek (Mar 4, 2016)

4aprice said:


> Did not mean to disrespect Sierra snow at all, just tell the difference after traversing the desert between Reno and Salt Lake.  Kirkwood and Squaw (In fact Tahoe in general) are on my radar for a visit in the future.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Day to day the snow surface in the wasatch is better plain and simple. The highs are higher here and the lows lower IMO. Its really hard if you try to fly in and get good snow. When its on its fantastic and really for me its more about terrain. I'll likely return back to the rockies someday because i do miss that consistency. This year there's no place I'd rather be than the SLT though.


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## Bene288 (Mar 4, 2016)

snoseek said:


> Day to day the snow surface in the wasatch is better plain and simple. The highs are higher here and the lows lower IMO. Its really hard if you try to fly in and get good snow. When its on its fantastic and really for me its more about terrain. I'll likely return back to the rockies someday because i do miss that consistency. This year there's no place I'd rather be than the SLT though.


I stay in Meyers at a family house. I thought the skiing was fantastic last week. Locals were complaining about the snow being either too stiff in the morning or too slushy in the afternoon, to me it was like having primo spring conditions back east. Kirkwood was the place to be. Would love to catch a powder day at that place. 

Sent from my Classic using Tapatalk


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## ss20 (Mar 4, 2016)

According to the last few GFS runs, I'm gonna go from 70 degrees and sun to a potential snowstorm in 48 hours.  Canadian is similar but doesn't bring the cold down far enough.  Powerful cold dip and a powerful southern rainstorm are gonna meet in the northeast next Thursday-Friday.  Definitely something to watch.


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## Los (Mar 4, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Powerful cold dip and a powerful southern rainstorm are gonna meet in the northeast next Thursday-Friday.  Definitely something to watch.



Patterns shifting?? (Sorry to steal your thunder DHS)


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## deadheadskier (Mar 4, 2016)

Haha.  I'm just going with the cool kids and throwing it out there blind.  Maybe someday I'll be right!.


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## wtcobb (Mar 7, 2016)

Just picked up almost 2" (and counting) in Franconia this morning. From bare ground to coverage in a blink. Hopefully it stays the frozen variety.


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## ChicoKat (Mar 7, 2016)

Is there any validity to a pretty decent dump on Thursday night into Friday at higher elevations? Looks like the Pinkam Notch area is where the possibility lies. The models seem to be going back and forth on the snow line.


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## fcksummer (Mar 7, 2016)

wtcobb said:


> Just picked up almost 2" (and counting) in Franconia this morning. From bare ground to coverage in a blink. Hopefully it stays the frozen variety.



Sounds like you're experiencing a live action pattern shift.


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## dlague (Mar 7, 2016)

wtcobb said:


> Just picked up almost 2" (and counting) in Franconia this morning. From bare ground to coverage in a blink. Hopefully it stays the frozen variety.



Same happening in Plymouth NH


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## dlague (Mar 7, 2016)

Well this blows!

March forecast

With springlike warmth surging back into the eastern United States, many are wondering if winter is over. The answer is yes in most communities.

"I believe that winter itself, the worst of winter, is over," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecast Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. "It is not uncommon for snow in spring in the Northeast, but we have turned the corner to spring."

"That is unlike the last two years when winter kept hanging on."

Last year, March averaged well below normal in the Northeast. New York City received nearly 19 inches of snow in March 2015, with the last measurable snowfall reading on March 20. The last day of measurable snow during the winter of 2014-15 in Boston was March 28.

The warmth surging into the Northeast this week will get trimmed later in the week, but the cooler air will fall well short of supporting snow. The only exception will be across northern New England.

After the mild middle of March 2016, "Temperatures will drop back to normal after March 19 for a period of a few days, but then we will warm right back up," Pastelok said.

Despite that cooldown and going forward through the rest of spring, "I do not see much in the way of snow."

Pastelok cannot rule out wet snow in the interior Northeast late in March or during the middle of April. "But, any snow event in central New England and the mid-Atlantic would be an anomaly of the pattern. These areas are pretty much done [in terms of snow]."

"However, eastern Canada and far northern New England are still at risk for snow in late March and April."

*The lack of snow and cold expected elsewhere in the East is not good news for operators of ski resorts* or snow removal companies but is welcome by those who look forward to spring activities.


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## Los (Mar 7, 2016)

dlague said:


> Well this blows!
> 
> March forecast
> 
> ...



His tone is nauseating!!


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## bigbog (Mar 7, 2016)

dlague said:


> Same happening in Plymouth NH





ChicoKat said:


> Is there any validity to a pretty decent dump on Thursday night into Friday at higher elevations? Looks like the Pinkam Notch area is where the possibility lies. The models seem to be going back and forth on the snow line.



Yeah, true March weather in northern New England...only the flip-flopping has been going on for practically the whole winter.  Have gotten ~.5".  Hope Sugarloaf picks up a little bit of either this or something down the line.  Usually stays a little drier due to northward facing.


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## j law (Mar 7, 2016)

Time to work on correcting the slice in my golf swing... Looks like a longer than average golf season starting today here in NYC.

I love golf but would pick 5 degrees and snowing anytime over golf weather.


Sent from my iPhone usin


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## j law (Mar 7, 2016)

Upon reflection, I think this is 1st time in my 41 years that I didn't ski on the east coast (since I was 4 anyway).

I got 4 great days in Co which satiated me to some degree, but what a bummer!

I felt worst for my sister who was so excited to move to CT from Chicago this year and she didn't get out either!


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## NYDB (Mar 7, 2016)

2'' of rain for central VT thurs?    No wonder there is a heroin epidemic.


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## catsup948 (Mar 9, 2016)

Pattern change after next week.  I'll believe it when I see it.


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## nhskier1969 (Mar 10, 2016)

I found where tuna gets his weather forecast from


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## gmcunni (Mar 10, 2016)

> According to a NOAA sponsored ENSO report, equatorial temperature anomalies in the Pacific ocean have fallen to their lowest point in the last year. That “heat content” is usually the tell tale sign if an El Niño or La Niña to come. Currently the lack thereof shows that El Niño is most likely on its way out and right now there’s a good chance we’ll see La Niña effects during the 2016/2017 ski season.



what does La Nina usually mean for the North East?


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## gmcunni (Mar 10, 2016)

gmcunni said:


> what does La Nina usually mean for the North East?



i think it means snow???


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## fcksummer (Mar 11, 2016)

nhskier1969 said:


> I found where tuna gets his weather forecast from
> 
> View attachment 19509



What a load of shit. Those fckers should be out of business after this "winter."


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## snoseek (Mar 11, 2016)

If la nina comes in strong ill definitely be committing another year out here

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## deadheadskier (Mar 11, 2016)

Wife pulled the tennis gear out of storage yesterday

Pattern will shift


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 13, 2016)

Both GFS and Canuck onboard for a decent storm next Monday.  Roughly 7 days out, but the consistency (been watching it a few days now) and cold air to work with looks encouraging.

On GFS it's snow for all of ski country, including Poconos, though it'd dicey, and probably unrealistic given known model biases.  On Canadian it starts as rain most everywhere, but changes to a decent snowfall.


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## andrec10 (Mar 13, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Both GFS and Canuck onboard for a decent storm next Monday.  Roughly 7 days out, but the consistency (been watching it a few days now) and cold air to work with looks encouraging.
> 
> On GFS it's snow for all of ski country, including Poconos, though it'd dicey, and probably unrealistic given known model biases.  On Canadian it starts as rain most everywhere, but changes to a decent snowfall.



This would be too little, too late!


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## yeggous (Mar 13, 2016)

andrec10 said:


> This would be too little, too late!



That's the truth. It'd help with whatever groomers survive but that's it. Nothing ungroomed will be in play either the ground already thawed.


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## ss20 (Mar 13, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Both GFS and Canuck onboard for a decent storm next Monday.  Roughly 7 days out, but the consistency (been watching it a few days now) and cold air to work with looks encouraging.
> 
> On GFS it's snow for all of ski country, including Poconos, though it'd dicey, and probably unrealistic given known model biases.  On Canadian it starts as rain most everywhere, but changes to a decent snowfall.



You jinxed it BG.  Got our first inland shift right on schedule!


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## catsup948 (Mar 13, 2016)

This has been on models for a few days in some way.  Boy we need some blocking to show up like it has been predicted too.  That is probably the difference between 12z GfS,  Canadian and 18z runs.  Happiness vs. Coffin nail!


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## mriceyman (Mar 14, 2016)

This would be nice


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## hammer (Mar 14, 2016)

mriceyman said:


> View attachment 19579
> 
> This would be nice
> 
> ...



I thought any GFS runs for 8 days out this season were a joke...but no complaints if this verifies.


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## mriceyman (Mar 14, 2016)

hammer said:


> I thought any GFS runs for 8 days out this season were a joke...but no complaints if this verifies.


Yea basically but the euro has a similar outcome. Def still far awaw but trying to give everyone a little hope lol


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 14, 2016)

nhskier1969 said:


> I found where tuna gets his weather forecast from



You signed up for this site in February and have 16 posts.



The weather the next couple weeks looks encouraging. Besides the Monday/Tuesday possible storm we should return to frozen ground on bare trails / trees followed by potential for a couple inches here and there prior to the main event (which is why GFS totals are more than just that one storm). Could set up nicely. Let's hope.


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## ss20 (Mar 15, 2016)

Well, that was fun while it lasted.  Football pulled, shredded, and burned.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 15, 2016)

Any snow for Wildcat?

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## deadheadskier (Mar 15, 2016)

About to find out in a couple hours.  Pouring in the flatlands. Hoping elevation is my friend


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 15, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Well, that was fun while it lasted.  Football pulled, shredded, and burned.



That was quick.


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## mriceyman (Mar 15, 2016)

Because its ots 5 days out doesnt mean its over.. Lets see what happens


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## MEtoVTSkier (Mar 15, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> About to find out in a couple hours.  Pouring in the flatlands. Hoping elevation is my friend



Radar didn't look very encouraging.


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## ss20 (Mar 15, 2016)

mriceyman said:


> Because its ots 5 days out doesnt mean its over.. Lets see what happens
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



No models showed snow west of Martha's Vineyard today... and most were OTS.


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## catsup948 (Mar 15, 2016)

ss20 said:


> No models showed snow west of Martha's Vineyard today... and most were OTS.



6 days out.  Just today this has gone way east and is now coming back west. GFS went from way out to sea at 6z to a big western shift at 12z and a little more at 18z.  18z GFS is a monster of a storm.  If that could end up in the Gulf of Maine winter would make a brief come back for many.


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## Bostonian (Mar 16, 2016)

Don't look now...


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## bigbog (Mar 17, 2016)

Possible snow(~4"+) Sun night - Mon afternoon...for anyone able to escape the workplace on Monday.  Up on the mountain(SL) it _should_ be cold enough.


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## Jully (Mar 17, 2016)

A nice hit for Big Rock and Canada...


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## steamboat1 (Mar 21, 2016)

Later this week looks interesting.


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 21, 2016)

heads up for Friday. Looking like a pow day.


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## steamboat1 (Mar 21, 2016)

bdfreetuna said:


> heads up for Friday. Looking like a pow day.



Oh no!!!!!!!


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## MEtoVTSkier (Mar 21, 2016)

Jully said:


> A nice hit for Big Rock and Canada...



Maybe 1.5" at Bigrock


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## JDMRoma (Mar 21, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> Oh no!!!!!!!



Hahaha yes exactly what I was thinking. 
Cancelling that day off now 


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 21, 2016)

stay home bitches!


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## Smellytele (Mar 21, 2016)

bdfreetuna said:


> stay home bitches!



Please don't crash again. While they may get snow. Thursday/Thursday night looks like freezing rain


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 21, 2016)

Good to know I'll definitely keep an eye on that. So far I've been driving the Legacy GT really carefully on anything slippery and pretty fast on open roads and highways. This car exceeded my expectations in every way and continues to impress just about every time I take it out for a drive... the pulls you can get even at highways speeds to pass someone are incredible and the handling is so sharp, I'd probably cry if I even scratched it.


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## dlague (Mar 21, 2016)

Can this be true?




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## jrd100 (Mar 21, 2016)

dlague this map is what the ecmwf is predicting. See the long term section at the gray me nws forecast discussion for more info. 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=ME&prodtype=discussion

I hope the ecmwf is correct and the gfs wrong, gfs predicting rain/sleet. We will see, gfs predicted today's coastal snow.


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## steamboat1 (Mar 21, 2016)

bdfreetuna said:


> stay home bitches!



Don't worry Tuna I'll be riding out the storm in VT. Wed. on. Be careful driving.


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## Smellytele (Mar 22, 2016)

NOAA at 3419' at K
*Thursday*
Rain,  snow, and sleet likely before 2pm, then a chance of rain and sleet  between 2pm and 3pm, then a chance of rain after 3pm.  Mostly cloudy,  with a high near 38. Very windy, with a southeast wind 29 to 34 mph  increasing to 35 to 40 mph in the afternoon.  Chance of precipitation is  60%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. 

*Thursday Night*
Rain.   Low around 29. Very windy, with a southwest wind 45 to 55 mph  decreasing to 33 to 43 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 80%. New  precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. 

*Friday*
Rain  and snow showers before 10am, then rain showers and sleet likely  between 10am and noon, then rain and snow showers likely after noon.   High near 36. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 29 mph, with gusts as high  as 45 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 80%.


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## tnt1234 (Mar 22, 2016)

What a mess.  Looked good a few days ago, now looks like rain and freezing rain in ME thurs>fri.

Weather underground is the most optimistic site, so I'll keep looking at that one I guess....


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## cdskier (Mar 22, 2016)

I was originally planning to drive up to Sugarbush Thursday night after work to ski Friday and Saturday so I can be back home for family stuff on Sunday. I may need to reconsider with this forecast...


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 22, 2016)

Wow I'm really noticing a pattern this season..

Looks like Mt Tremblant might still get hammered. North VT-NH-Maine could have a decent stretch of weather relatively speaking too.


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## steamboat1 (Mar 22, 2016)

Heading up early tomorrow morning, fingers crossed.

*Tonight*
A  chance of snow with a slight chance of light snow before midnight, then  snow, mainly after midnight.  Low around 28. Very windy, with a  southwest wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to 36 to 41 mph after midnight.   Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches  possible. 

*Wednesday*
Snow  showers likely, mainly before 10am.  Cloudy, with a high near 32. West  wind 8 to 14 mph becoming north in the afternoon.  Chance of  precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. 

*Wednesday Night*
Snow  likely, mainly after 9pm.  Cloudy, with a low around 23. North wind  around 9 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1  to 3 inches possible.


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## 〽❄❅ (Mar 22, 2016)

Mont-Tremblant, Canada Weather
11:38 am EDT Print
THURSDAY
Mar 24
snow
29°    100%    5-8 in
Snow showers early, with a steadier snow developing late in the day. High 29F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 100%. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected.
THURSDAY NIGHT
snow
23°    100%    5-8 in


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## VTKilarney (Mar 22, 2016)

tnt1234 said:


> What a mess.  Looked good a few days ago....


That's the story of our winter.  


.


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## tnt1234 (Mar 22, 2016)

VTKilarney said:


> That's the story of our winter.
> 
> 
> .



Yep.

Damn it.


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## tnt1234 (Mar 22, 2016)

Forecast improving slightly here, but rain on friday is gonna freeze up all the new snow before we get there.  Oh well.  Take what we're given.


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 22, 2016)

Yeah I'm gonna wait till early next week now when things have softened up. Came down with a cold this morning not feeling well enough to ski at the moment anyway.


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## chuckstah (Mar 23, 2016)

Gonna ski fresh tomorrow.  2-4 in the Whites. Hopefully more!  Better than sitting home even if it does not happen. (but it will)


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## catsup948 (Mar 23, 2016)

Jay Peak reporting 6-8" last night and more tonight into tomorrow.  Haters hate but they are the only mountain offering any decent natural snow skiing in the northeast USA right now.


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## fbrissette (Mar 24, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> Jay Peak reporting 6-8" last night and more tonight into tomorrow.  Haters hate but they are the only mountain offering any decent natural snow skiing in the northeast USA right now.



Using my Jay Peak Webcam, it was a legit 6-8'' at the base.  It is snowing currently but there is rain on the way.  How much depends on the snow/rain line.   10-12 inches likely at the Massif, although some of it might be wet snow.


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## Los (Mar 24, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> Jay Peak reporting 6-8" last night and more tonight into tomorrow.  Haters hate but they are the only mountain offering any decent natural snow skiing in the northeast USA right now.



Who hates Jay???


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 24, 2016)

I have more stories about bad customer service at Jay than all other places combined, but I still go there to ski. Not a fan of the management.


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## Los (Mar 24, 2016)

We went early season to Jay and I forgot my boots. When I told them them thats what happened, they gave me a discount on boot rentals. That was nice... (yes I forgot my boots - not as bad as the time that I forgot my jacket -- or the time that I forgot my season pass -- or the time that I forgot my shirt. yes, my shirt).


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## VTKilarney (Mar 25, 2016)

bdfreetuna said:


> I have more stories about bad customer service at Jay than all other places combined, but I still go there to ski. Not a fan of the management.


I hadn't heard that about management.  I had always thought that Jay had one of the better management teams out there.


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 25, 2016)

Let's see. One time I had a voucher they accused me of trying to use twice, which I was in no position to really "prove" otherwise so they treated me like a thief, guilty until proven innocent I guess, until someone there finally figured it out.

Last time I was up on the tram with my wife a Jay employee next to us was rambling on and on about how Killington sucks, has no snow, Jay has the best snow, "last year was just an average year for us", everything at Killington is easy, everything at Killington sucks compared to Jay... to a nice guy right next to us who was being really polite and telling him that Killington is his home mountain but he likes to come to Jay sometimes too. This went on the whole tram ride and we really wondered if the guy was drunk or just a complete ass.

My third story is 10x worse and a total embarrassment for Jay, I won't even tell it here. I want to, and it didn't just involve me. But suffice to say, worst customer service and least giving a crap about their customers of any mountain I've been to. After the 3rd thing, I swore I'd never go there again. Bad winter of snow caused me to relent. But I still intend to go there only last resort.

Other things I've heard about Mr Q from local businesses and maybe-even-employees-maybe-not (in case he's reading) don't make me love going up there either.

Your mileage may differ.


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 25, 2016)

bdfreetuna said:


> (in case he's reading)


Even if he is reading, he doesn't care what you (or anyone for that matter) have to say.


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## Abubob (Mar 25, 2016)

bdfreetuna said:


> My third story is 10x worse and a total embarrassment for Jay, I won't even tell it here. I want to, and it didn't just involve me. But suffice to say, worst customer service and least giving a crap about their customers of any mountain I've been to. After the 3rd thing, I swore I'd never go there again. Bad winter of snow caused me to relent. But I still intend to go there only last resort.


Will you share if we say "pretty please". Because truthfully, this carries no weight without the story. And photos or a video would be nice too.


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## steamboat1 (Mar 25, 2016)

Amazing how only 1"-2" of fresh skied yesterday morning.


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## bdfreetuna (Mar 25, 2016)

Abubob said:


> Will you share if we say "pretty please". Because truthfully, this carries no weight without the story. And photos or a video would be nice too.



That's fine. It was completely unprofessional/rude behavior on the part of numerous employees towards a number of customers who shared a concern. Not everything needs to be shared in detail on AlpineZone.

I have no vendetta against Jay Peak. It's a great mountain, unfortunately standing alone in terms of skis areas I can think of that actually have a *bad attitude* towards their customers. From what I gather from people I do business with around Jay or Burke it's not just towards customers.


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## JimG. (Mar 25, 2016)

fbrissette said:


> Using my Jay Peak Webcam, it was a legit 6-8'' at the base.  It is snowing currently but there is rain on the way.  How much depends on the snow/rain line.   10-12 inches likely at the Massif, although some of it might be wet snow.



It was snowing like crazy in Montreal on our way back from MSA/Massif yesterday. My oldest son got concerned that the snow would make the drive further south difficult. I told him to not worry that it would be rain by the time we got to the border. Sure enough, all rain at customs. By the time we got to the high peaks area it was almost 40 degrees. It was close to 60 by the time we got home. I went from scraping ice off my windshield to scraping bugs off.

The forecast for the Beaupre area was for wet snow, Massif was forecasting 30cm.


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## tekweezle (Apr 5, 2016)

Ironic that this week,  Stratton has below freezing Temps and maybe a little snow here and there but they closed the mountain for the week and will call it quits after this weekend. 

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## aaronjohn (Nov 17, 2017)

I think this year snowfall could beat lots of areas in Northern England regions. I have already setup my weather station in my house for predicting the weather report. A weather station gives us the perfect info on the weather forecasting, atmospheric conditions. We can know the atmospheric pressure, temperature, wind speed, wind direction, the measure of rain, humidity etc. After getting good reviews from https://thehumannest.com/best-weather-station-reviews/, this site I buy a new one. It works brilliantly and gives me an accurate weather report.


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## Glenn (Nov 17, 2017)

aaronjohn said:


> I think this year snowfall could beat lots of areas in Northern England regions. I have already setup my weather station in my house for predicting the weather report. A weather station gives us the perfect info on the weather forecasting, atmospheric conditions. We can know the atmospheric pressure, temperature, wind speed, wind direction, the measure of rain, humidity etc. After getting good reviews from https://thehumannest.com/best-weather-station-reviews/, this site I buy a new one. It works brilliantly and gives me an accurate weather report.



Do you like homemade food as well? Ever take some on a work?


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## ss20 (Nov 17, 2017)

Glenn said:


> Do you like homemade food as well? Ever take some on a work?



 :lol::lol:

He likes weather.  He just does.


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## Glenn (Nov 17, 2017)

aaronjohn said:


> That is why the weather station was the best present for me..



Click here if you agree...


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## Jully (Nov 17, 2017)

Love that this is a thread for not last season, but TWO seasons ago too.

What kind of bot somehow pulls this thread out of a search?


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