# Vail considering cutting back on announced improvements- beginning of the end for VR?



## ss20 (Mar 20, 2020)

Thought this may deserve it's own thread...



> While we entered this situation in a strong financial position, we believe the potentially challenging economic environment ahead requires us to review our previously announced calendar year 2020 capital plans and our plans for returning capital to shareholders and will provide updates on those plans as we finalize decisions.



That's straight from the investor website, folks... http://investors.vailresorts.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vail-resorts-provides-updated-commentary-covid-19-impact

Frankly, $215m of capital improvements and 6 new lifts announced for next season across a portfolio with 37 total areas is not much on a per-area basis.  I think that ASC and Vail are both proving that stockholders (on the American stock exchange, at least) do not want to weather (haha) the ups and downs of the ski season.  And while a large amount of resorts across the globe can protect against poor snow years- that size can't protect against a global recession or economic downturn.  And while your local ski area can adapt and survive a few years with profits down 10%, on a large company like Vail they're not just losing profits- they'd be losing shareholders.  Double whammy.  

So...does Vail sell a few resorts to generate additional cashflow?  Unloading just a handful of properties would create $50m of cash- looks good on any company balance sheet.


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## icecoast1 (Mar 20, 2020)

Is there anybody out there that would by these ski areas in the middle of a recession?  It's not like Vail is the only one hurting.   If next winter is a bad winter skier visit/weather wise, they may be in trouble, but so will everybody else


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## ss20 (Mar 20, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> Is there anybody out there that would by these ski areas in the middle of a recession?  It's not like Vail is the only one hurting.   If next winter is a bad winter skier visit/weather wise, they may be in trouble, but so will everybody else



People bought the old ASC resorts when the economy tanked.  It's just the nature of public companies to make short-term decisions rather than focus on the long run, hence I wouldn't rule out Vail selling a resort for a decent price to get is sold quick so the cash is reported on the Q4 2020/Q1 2021 report.


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## JimG. (Mar 20, 2020)

We can debate the financial details endlessly, the entire recreation/hospitality/travel industry literally entered a black hole of uncertainty in one week.

Who knows what emerges on the other side of this but I'll bet Vail unloads quite a few smaller areas or just outright closes them.


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## Bosco DaSkia (Mar 20, 2020)




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## deadheadskier (Mar 20, 2020)

In theory sure, but who's gonna buy ski resorts in the next five - six months when that cash injection is needed?  

Sales in the Ski resort market is really only there right now for some rich dudes that don't mind throwing good money after bad in southern VT.

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## BenedictGomez (Mar 20, 2020)

Were it to ever get bad, Vail Resorts would likely just sell off some of its' nonessential properties which it acquired in "just because" fashion.  Things like Liberty, Roundtop, Mount Sunapee, etc....


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 20, 2020)

I really think this, "end of days" economic picture is greatly overblown.  

I think by 4Q20 a serious recovery will be underway once the virus is likely to be mostly gone. 

 I think the greatest threat isnt "jobs", but how quickly the velocity of hiring can take place for those displaced.  And it's not entirely unreasonable to believe that even in that concern, the snap-back could be quick if we assume "Jeff" gets hired back at the same job he lost 2.5 months earlier.  I think that's somewhat logical.


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## djd66 (Mar 20, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> I really think this, "end of days" economic picture is greatly overblown.
> 
> I think by 4Q20 a serious recovery will be underway once the virus is likely to be mostly gone.
> 
> I think the greatest threat isnt "jobs", but how quickly the velocity of hiring can take place for those displaced.  And it's not entirely unreasonable to believe that even in that concern, the snap-back could be quick if we assume "Jeff" gets hired back at the same job he lost 2.5 months earlier.  I think that's somewhat logical.



Sounds good to me!


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## deadheadskier (Mar 21, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Were it to ever get bad, Vail Resorts would likely just sell off some of its' nonessential properties which it acquired in "just because" fashion.  Things like Liberty, Roundtop, Mount Sunapee, etc....


Mount Sunapee was a "just because" purchase???

It's probably the second busiest ski area in the state of NH. The place prints money.  They have approval to expand it's terrain by almost 50% with a significant real estate project at the base of the new terrain. Sunapee is also less than two hours from metro Boston making it a great selling point for the Epic pass as a solid day trip option when people are unable to make the 3-4 hour drive to their VT areas. 

In NH it would certainly make more sense to dump Crotched, Attitash or Wildcat before Sunapee. 

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## icecoast1 (Mar 21, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> Mount Sunapee was a "just because" purchase???
> 
> It's probably the second busiest ski area in the state of NH. The place prints money.  They have approval to expand it's terrain by almost 50% with a significant real estate project at the base of the new terrain. Sunapee is also less than two hours from metro Boston making it a great selling point for the Epic pass as a solid day trip option when people are unable to make the 3-4 hour drive to their VT areas.
> 
> ...




The old Snow time resorts in PA are gold mines as well.  Maybe they dump some in the midwest if it comes to that?


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## MikeDeJ (Mar 21, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> Mount Sunapee was a "just because" purchase???
> 
> It's probably the second busiest ski area in the state of NH. The place prints money.  They have approval to expand it's terrain by almost 50% with a significant real estate project at the base of the new terrain. Sunapee is also less than two hours from metro Boston making it a great selling point for the Epic pass as a solid day trip option when people are unable to make the 3-4 hour drive to their VT areas.
> 
> ...



I agree with Crotched and some of the PA resorts.  All the smaller southern resorts dont seem to be a match for them, they had to buy when they bought Peaks.  Jack frost and Big Boulder are Ok but do you really want 2 areas that close?  I heard BB may have been on the block before all this to either close or sell it.  Im sure they will keep a few but would not be surprised if they sell a few off, even before the virius. The northern resorts Attitash, Wildcat, Sunapee, Snow and Stowe seen like a great fit and make money.


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## EPB (Mar 21, 2020)

deadheadskier said:


> Mount Sunapee was a "just because" purchase???
> 
> It's probably the second busiest ski area in the state of NH. The place prints money.  They have approval to expand it's terrain by almost 50% with a significant real estate project at the base of the new terrain. Sunapee is also less than two hours from metro Boston making it a great selling point for the Epic pass as a solid day trip option when people are unable to make the 3-4 hour drive to their VT areas.
> 
> ...


It all depends on how much money you'd need to raise. Totally agree that you'd rather keep Sunapee over Crotched all else equal. But if you think you need $X and you can only get $X by selling the more profitable property, then such is life.

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## snoseek (Mar 21, 2020)

They would make some serious dough if they dumped Kirkwood as they got on a fire sale and they have invested minimal over the years.


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## drjeff (Mar 21, 2020)

Let's see how long this disruption to our day to day "normal" lifestyle last before hypothesizing about shutting down resorts... If we're basically up and running for the most part by say Memorial Day or even the June 21st start of Summer, that's not necessarily all doom and gloom and rush to hang the for sale sign out front of the base lodge....

If we're talking about significant reductions in "normal daily life" still on Labor Day or Columbus Day, then resorts closing are probably the least of our worries....

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## dblskifanatic (Mar 21, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> I really think this, "end of days" economic picture is greatly overblown.
> 
> I think by 4Q20 a serious recovery will be underway once the virus is likely to be mostly gone.
> 
> I think the greatest threat isnt "jobs", but how quickly the velocity of hiring can take place for those displaced.  And it's not entirely unreasonable to believe that even in that concern, the snap-back could be quick if we assume "Jeff" gets hired back at the same job he lost 2.5 months earlier.  I think that's somewhat logical.





BenedictGomez said:


> Were it to ever get bad, Vail Resorts would likely just sell off some of its' nonessential properties which it acquired in "just because" fashion.  Things like Liberty, Roundtop, Mount Sunapee, etc....



I agree!  These doom and gloom threads in light of the times are pointless!  Those who want to see Vail crash or hate the mega pass idea put their spin as to why it will fail. 

We are in a state that the all current generations (minus a few from the Great Depression) have never seen.  Predicting anything at this time is also pointless.  I do agree the Q3 and Q4 will be huge rebuilding periods going into 2021.  Sad thing - the SMALLER business may not have the ability to recover- larger businesses will scale back for now, capture some stimulus funds and new opportunities will surface.

These threads are pessimists vs optimists!  Then again aren’t they all!


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## tumbler (Mar 21, 2020)

ss20 said:


> Thought this may deserve it's own thread...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Every company is taking a hard look at their finances right now and are nervous. It’s not just ski areas.


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## ss20 (Apr 1, 2020)

Not April Fool's.  Vail cancelling all lift installments this off-season.

https://liftblog.com/2020/04/01/vail-resorts-cancels-all-2020-lift-construction/


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## Tonyr (Apr 1, 2020)

I'd highly doubt they'd try and sell ski resorts in this type of environment. It's a desperate move that would return pennies on the dollar, shareholders would not be happy. Vail is the largest publicly traded ski company in the world, they are more likely to buy a depressed ski area at a give away price than to sell one that way.


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## spring_mountain_high (Apr 1, 2020)

MikeDeJ said:


> I agree with Crotched and some of the PA resorts.  All the smaller southern resorts dont seem to be a match for them, they had to buy when they bought Peaks.  Jack frost and Big Boulder are Ok but do you really want 2 areas that close?  I heard BB may have been on the block before all this to either close or sell it.  Im sure they will keep a few but would not be surprised if they sell a few off, even before the virius. The northern resorts Attitash, Wildcat, Sunapee, Snow and Stowe seen like a great fit and make money.



direct from a finance office employee:  jack frost makes the most money out of all the former peaks resorts


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## ss20 (Apr 1, 2020)

Tonyr said:


> I'd highly doubt they'd try and sell ski resorts in this type of environment. It's a desperate move that would return pennies on the dollar, shareholders would not be happy. Vail is the largest publicly traded ski company in the world, they are more likely to buy a depressed ski area at a give away price than to sell one that way.



I'm not so sure.  Selling off small handful of under-performing resorts to generate cashflow would look better in the eyes of the stockholder's, JMO.  I think that cancelling ALL improvements is more of a red flag.


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## jaytrem (Apr 1, 2020)

spring_mountain_high said:


> direct from a finance office employee:  jack frost makes the most money out of all the former peaks resorts



That's surprising since it never seems that crowded.


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## Tonyr (Apr 1, 2020)

ss20 said:


> I'm not so sure.  Selling off small handful of under-performing resorts to generate cashflow would look better in the eyes of the stockholder's, JMO.  I think that cancelling ALL improvements is more of a red flag.



Vail is canceling 80 to 85 mill worth of improvements out of the roughly 200 mill they planned on doing for next season. Their biggest savings is going to come from suspending 2 quarters of dividends which will net them 140 mill. That's a much easier financial solution than selling assets in a depressed market.


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## deadheadskier (Apr 2, 2020)

ss20 said:


> I'm not so sure.  Selling off small handful of under-performing resorts to generate cashflow would look better in the eyes of the stockholder's, JMO.  I think that cancelling ALL improvements is more of a red flag.


good luck finding a buyer....

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## trackbiker (Apr 2, 2020)

spring_mountain_high said:


> direct from a finance office employee:  jack frost makes the most money out of all the former peaks resorts



More than Mt. Snow? I find that hard to believe. JF does not have night skiing so that eliminates the profitable weeknight school groups that Whitetail, Roundtop, and Liberty get.


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## jimmywilson69 (Apr 2, 2020)

yeah seems odd to me as well but as I said previously on AZ Liberty, Roundtop, and Whitetail make a lot more money than most people in the northeast think.  Peaks bought them for $75 million. Its not like these are rope tow places.  All 3 have highly successful year round business models. Roundtop hosts summer camps and they are like $400/kid/week.  They usually sell out and those are the cheap ones! Whitetail and Liberty have golf courses which are some of the only courses in their respective areas and due rather well.


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## EPB (Apr 2, 2020)

ss20 said:


> I'm not so sure.  Selling off small handful of under-performing resorts to generate cashflow would look better in the eyes of the stockholder's, JMO.  I think that cancelling ALL improvements is more of a red flag.



Cancelling improvements is a short term solution to a short term problem.

Selling properties is a long term solution to a short term problem. 

The latter is a more extreme measure - especially when you consider it is impossible to know how much construction work can even get done this year. The latter should make investors more nervous.


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## snoseek (Apr 2, 2020)

I'm likely going to cave and get an epic next season. I guess we get the joy of that summit triple another season aaaay!


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## asnowmobiler (Apr 2, 2020)

spring_mountain_high said:


> direct from a finance office employee:  jack frost makes the most money out of all the former peaks resorts





jaytrem said:


> That's surprising since it never seems that crowded.



That does not seem even remotely possible.
I went there three times last season, a few time the year before and many times three years ago when I had the Peaks Pass. The place was never overly crowded and rarely ever had a lift line, if they did it was no longer than a few minutes, except on holiday weekend. I plan to buy an Epic pass this year and will use it at Frost a few times because it's only 15 minutes from my home, but will spend most of my time in Vermont.


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## Cobbold (Apr 2, 2020)

Never been to Jack Frost, but looking at peak resorts 10 k, Jack frosts does very well for skier visits, so yes it’s probably true


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## asnowmobiler (Apr 2, 2020)

I'm sure it makes money, since they haven't spent a dime on the place in a long time and they seem to have a minimal amount of staff.


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## machski (Apr 2, 2020)

Count Aspen though as an operator moving forward with planned lift installs and capital spending:

https://www.aspentimes.com/news/asp...assesses-coronavirus-hit-to-skico-and-valley/

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## thetrailboss (Apr 2, 2020)

machski said:


> Count Aspen though as an operator moving forward with planned lift installs and capital spending:
> 
> https://www.aspentimes.com/news/asp...assesses-coronavirus-hit-to-skico-and-valley/
> 
> Sent from my SM-T830 using AlpineZone mobile app



The benefits of IKON.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 2, 2020)

machski said:


> Count Aspen though as an operator moving forward with planned lift installs and capital spending:



It will be interesting to see if they actually do go through with all of them though.  

No CEO will say a plan is cancelled, until a plan is cancelled.


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## ss20 (Apr 2, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> It will be interesting to see if they actually do go through with all of them though.
> 
> No CEO will say a plan is cancelled, until a plan is cancelled.



While this hurts all ski resorts, this is sheer murder for Vail.  I don't think there's ANY emergency plan to deal with their entire portfolio being shutdown for a few months.  

Us in the Northeast got relatively lucky- most places had lass than 30 days less left in their season and can implement their "worst winter in 30 years" plan to get through this financially (I hope).


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## icecoast1 (Apr 2, 2020)

ss20 said:


> While this hurts all ski resorts, this is sheer murder for Vail.  I don't think there's ANY emergency plan to deal with their entire portfolio being shutdown for a few months.
> 
> Us in the Northeast got relatively lucky- most places had lass than 30 days less left in their season and can implement their "worst winter in 30 years" plan to get through this financially (I hope).




I dont think any business in the country had a plan for dealing with an abrupt shutdown that lasted for months followed by a recession


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## dblskifanatic (Apr 2, 2020)

ss20 said:


> While this hurts all ski resorts, this is sheer murder for Vail.  I don't think there's ANY emergency plan to deal with their entire portfolio being shutdown for a few months.
> 
> Us in the Northeast got relatively lucky- most places had lass than 30 days less left in their season and can implement their "worst winter in 30 years" plan to get through this financially (I hope).



Many of Vail’s portfolio have resorts closing around mid April then transition for summer in June.  A few would have stayed open in May.  They will start to transition to summer.  The only real factor will be how the resort industry ramps back up during the summer.


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## ss20 (Apr 2, 2020)

dblskifanatic said:


> Many of Vail’s portfolio have resorts closing around mid April then transition for summer in June.  A few would have stayed open in May.  They will start to transition to summer.  The only real factor will be how the resort industry ramps back up during the summer.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



What I was aiming at was their handful of Southern Hemisphere properties that are all major plays for Australia.


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## raisingarizona (Apr 2, 2020)

ss20 said:


> While this hurts all ski resorts, this is sheer murder for Vail.  I don't think there's ANY emergency plan to deal with their entire portfolio being shutdown for a few months.
> 
> Us in the Northeast got relatively lucky- most places had lass than 30 days less left in their season and can implement their "worst winter in 30 years" plan to get through this financially (I hope).



The timing of all of this was pretty fortunate for the ski industry. Imagine if this thing landed in mid November keeping resorts closed through February. That would’ve really hurt.


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## crystalmountainskier (Apr 2, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> It will be interesting to see if they actually do go through with all of them though.
> 
> No CEO will say a plan is cancelled, until a plan is cancelled.



Disassembling one of the most important lifts at Snowmass is a strong sign they are all in.


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## JimG. (Apr 2, 2020)

raisingarizona said:


> The timing of all of this was pretty fortunate for the ski industry. Imagine if this thing landed in mid November keeping resorts closed through February. That would’ve really hurt.



Glass half full.

And a great point.


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## icecoast1 (Apr 3, 2020)

raisingarizona said:


> The timing of all of this was pretty fortunate for the ski industry. Imagine if this thing landed in mid November keeping resorts closed through February. That would’ve really hurt.




We'll get to live that scenario in the fall when the virus comes back for cycle 2.  Hopefully we have a vaccine or an effective treatment protocol by then


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## snoseek (Apr 3, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> We'll get to live that scenario in the fall when the virus comes back for cycle 2.  Hopefully we have a vaccine or an effective treatment protocol by then



You seem convinced. I'm not. Neither of us really know about all that. I guess we will see.


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## icecoast1 (Apr 3, 2020)

snoseek said:


> You seem convinced. I'm not. Neither of us really know about all that. I guess we will see.



It seems more probable than it just magically disappearing with no vaccine and no/minimal herd immunity.


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## VTKilarney (Apr 3, 2020)

snoseek said:


> You seem convinced. I'm not. Neither of us really know about all that. I guess we will see.



Every expert I have seen is expecting a second wave in the fall.  The only question is just how bad it will be.


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## ss20 (Apr 3, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> Every expert I have seen is expecting a second wave in the fall.  The only question is just how bad it will be.



I'm also not sold on the second wave given we don't know the extent of this first wave.  If 20% of the population can get sick and have immunity to the next wave than theoretically wouldn't wave 2 be 20% less contagious?  They say this thing mutates much much slower than the flu so I'm hoping I'm right but there are many many smarter people working on this than me.


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## urungus (Apr 3, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> Every expert I have seen is expecting a second wave in the fall.  The only question is just how bad it will be.



And the experts are also saying it will be 12-18 months before a vaccine can be developed, tested, manufactured, and distributed.  There’s a good chance the entire 20-21 season could be lost.


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## icecoast1 (Apr 3, 2020)

urungus said:


> And the experts are also saying it will be 12-18 months before a vaccine can be developed, tested, manufactured, and distributed.  There’s a good chance the entire 20-21 season could be lost.



really depends on how much herd immunity we have and whether or not there ends up being an effective treatment.   Hopefully some of the drugs currently in trial end up working on a large scale because we really can't afford to wait 12-18 months for a vaccine before we start returning back to (semi) normal.   Also if we can develop testing to see who has been sick and who hasn't and can test more people quickly and backtrace infections, we shouldn't have to stay in lockdown forever


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 3, 2020)

urungus said:


> And the experts are also saying it will be 12-18 months before a vaccine can be developed, tested, manufactured, and distributed.  *There’s a good chance the entire 20-21 season could be lost.*



This is not going to happen, because it literally cannot happen financially.  

Businesses cannot all stay closed another year.  Now you're talking about 100% the "fix" being worse than the actual "problem" with talk like that; not even debatable.


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## Smellytele (Apr 3, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> really depends on how much herd immunity we have and whether or not there ends up being an effective treatment.   Hopefully some of the drugs currently in trial end up working on a large scale because we really can't afford to wait 12-18 months for a vaccine before we start returning back to (semi) normal.   Also if we can develop testing to see who has been sick and who hasn't and can test more people quickly and backtrace infections, we shouldn't have to stay in lockdown forever



Isn’t the test to see if people have antibodies from having it just a few weeks away. I know we won’t have 30 million of them right off the bat but and seems like a good thing to see who can get out of lockdown.


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## icecoast1 (Apr 3, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> Isn’t the test to see if people have antibodies from having it just a few weeks away. I know we won’t have 30 million of them right off the bat but and seems like a good thing to see who can get out of lockdown.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone




thats what the news is saying.  Might be too late to make a huge impact this time around, but at least we'd have it for round 2 so we don't have to go through all of this again


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## Smellytele (Apr 3, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> thats what the news is saying.  Might be too late to make a huge impact this time around, but at least we'd have it for round 2 so we don't have to go through all of this again



Well if they could test people then they can get back to living life and not worry about infected others or getting sick themselves if they test positive for the antibodies. They can even give out certificates of antibodies. They maybe doing this in Germany already.


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## VTKilarney (Apr 3, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> Well if they could test people then they can get back to living life and not worry about infected others or getting sick themselves if they test positive for the antibodies. They can even give out certificates of antibodies. They maybe doing this in Germany already.



And if only 20% of the population could meaningfully participate in the economy, it would still be an economic disaster.


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## icecoast1 (Apr 3, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> And if only 20% of the population could meaningfully participate in the economy, it would still be an economic disaster.



Not as much of a disaster as all of us staying in our homes for 12-18 months while we wait for a vaccine


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## Smellytele (Apr 3, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> And if only 20% of the population could meaningfully participate in the economy, it would still be an economic disaster.



It may be higher than that as many people who have little to no symptoms aren't reporting it.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 3, 2020)

Nowhere near 20% of Americans have has COVID19 already, we know that from the testing data we currently have.


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## VTKilarney (Apr 3, 2020)

icecoast1 said:


> Not as much of a disaster as all of us staying in our homes for 12-18 months while we wait for a vaccine



No argument from me.  My point is that at some point they are going to have to let people out of their homes - whether or not there is a vaccine.


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## Smellytele (Apr 3, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Nowhere near 20% of Americans have has COVID19 already, we know that from the testing data we currently have.


Hard to say when only a little over a million have been tested. We would get a better idea if we tested for antibodies.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 3, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> *Hard to say when only a little over a million have been tested.* We would get a better idea if we tested for antibodies.



It's not possible for 2 reasons, one obvious, one not so obvious.

The obvious reason is that were you to assume a possible >= 20% pop COVID19+ infection rate already, that's 66M infected Americans.  Were 66M infected, even if COVID19 were 1/2 as deadly as the common flu, you'd already be at several hundred thousand deaths.

The not obvious reason is that our current testing at > 1M tests isnt even at 20% positive, and that's with the data set being massively skewed towards positive results given you need to present a known COVID19 symptom to even get a test in the first place.


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## Smellytele (Apr 3, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> It's not possible for 2 reasons, one obvious, one not so obvious.
> 
> The obvious reason is that were you to assume a possible >= 20% pop COVID19+ infection rate already, that's 66M infected Americans.  Were 66M infected, even if COVID19 were 1/2 as deadly as the common flu, you'd already be at several hundred thousand deaths.
> 
> The not obvious reason is that our current testing at > 1M tests isnt even at 20% positive, and that's with the data set being massively skewed towards positive results given you need to present a known COVID19 symptom to even get a test in the first place.



Actually they said 1.3 million tests have been run but a lot of labs run 2 tests per subject so the number tested could be well below 1.3.
Also at this point how many people who have tested positive have shown no symptoms what so ever. All I am saying is we don't know how many people may have had it and didn't know and/or never got tested.


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## fbrissette (Apr 3, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> Actually they said 1.3 million tests have been run but a lot of labs run 2 tests per subject so the number tested could be well below 1.3.
> Also at this point how many people who have tested positive have shown no symptoms what so ever. All I am saying is we don't know how many people may have had it and didn't know and/or never got tested.



Don't worry.  Jared is now in charge.  Everything will be solved in no time.


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## VTKilarney (Apr 3, 2020)

fbrissette said:


> Don't worry.  Jared is now in charge.  Everything will be solved in no time.



It’s a testament to how subservient Canada is that a Canadian would (a) know this; and (b) care enough about it to mention it.


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## fbrissette (Apr 3, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> It’s a testament to how subservient Canada is that a Canadian would (a) know this; and (b) care enough about it to mention it.



Canadian politics are boring, just like our prime minister.  US politics are fascinating.  The same guy with no credentials who was put in charge of Middle-East peace in now in charge of the Coronavirus response.   You can't make this up,  Aren't you a little bit afraid ?


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## icecoast1 (Apr 3, 2020)

fbrissette said:


> Aren't you a little bit afraid ?



Nope.  Hes got top medical experts like Fauci and Birx among others running things.  We'll be fine.  I'm more worried about the long lasting economic damage that might happen if this thing goes on for months at this point than I am about the virus


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## VTKilarney (Apr 3, 2020)

fbrissette said:


> Canadian politics are boring, just like our prime minister.  US politics are fascinating.  The same guy with no credentials who was put in charge of Middle-East peace in now in charge of the Coronavirus response.   You can't make this up,  Aren't you a little bit afraid ?



Oh, your politics are interesting. Your Prime Minister is a huge fan of blackface, after all.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 3, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> Actually they said 1.3 million tests have been run but a lot of labs run 2 tests per subject so the number tested could be well below 1.3.
> Also at this point* how many people who have tested positive have shown no symptoms what so ever.* All I am saying is we don't know how many people may have had it and didn't know and/or never got tested.



It's a huge number, somewhere between 33% (Italian study) & almost 50% (Diamond Princess study) depending upon the study.  Nevertheless, even if you go with 50% you cant get to 20% already having it.


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## Edd (Apr 3, 2020)

VTKilarney said:


> Oh, your politics are interesting. Your Prime Minister is a huge fan of blackface, after all.



Of course, our leader is an endless quote machine.


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## machski (Apr 3, 2020)

We'll all have to wait another year to ride the Kanc8 at Loon.  Boyne is postponing that install and the Swift Current 6 at Big Sky due to concerns they may not be able to finish the lifts this season on a compressed timeline.  SK stated both locations would be hurt with no lift in the current alignments worse than waiting.  In the case of Swifty's replacement, the lift build in Austria is almost complete and will be shipped and stored somewhere in the US for next season (SK mentioned it is already Boyne owned).  No word on if the same will be true for the Kanc8.

Sent from my SM-T830 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## VTKilarney (Apr 3, 2020)

Edd said:


> Of course, our leader is an endless quote machine.



You are equating that to blackface?  Sheesh


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 3, 2020)

Unless your balance sheet is bulletproof, it would be irresponsible to spend many millions of dollars on multiple lift installs right now in this climate of financial uncertainty.


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## darent (Apr 4, 2020)

dblskifanatic said:


> I agree!  These doom and gloom threads in light of the times are pointless!  Those who want to see Vail crash or hate the mega pass idea put their spin as to why it will fail.
> 
> We are in a state that the all current generations (minus a few from the Great Depression) have never seen.  Predicting anything at this time is also pointless.  I do agree the Q3 and Q4 will be huge rebuilding periods going into 2021.  Sad thing - the SMALLER business may not have the ability to recover- larger businesses will scale back for now, capture some stimulus funds and new opportunities will surface.
> 
> ...


I'll take these conditions any day over the year I spent in Vietnam, some of my generation have seen a lot worse!!


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## snoseek (Apr 4, 2020)

darent said:


> I'll take these conditions any day over the year I spent in Vietnam, some of my generation have seen a lot worse!!



Truth.

I'll take this over boot camp lol


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## thetrailboss (Apr 4, 2020)

machski said:


> We'll all have to wait another year to ride the Kanc8 at Loon.  Boyne is postponing that install and the Swift Current 6 at Big Sky due to concerns they may not be able to finish the lifts this season on a compressed timeline.  SK stated both locations would be hurt with no lift in the current alignments worse than waiting.  In the case of Swifty's replacement, the lift build in Austria is almost complete and will be shipped and stored somewhere in the US for next season (SK mentioned it is already Boyne owned).  No word on if the same will be true for the Kanc8.
> 
> Sent from my SM-T830 using AlpineZone mobile app



Was going to say that Boyne is postponing their work as well....based on $22 million in lost revenue due to closing early (!)


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## NYDB (Apr 4, 2020)

fbrissette said:


> Canadian politics are boring, just like our prime minister.  US politics are fascinating.  The same guy with no credentials who was put in charge of Middle-East peace in now in charge of the Coronavirus response.   You can't make this up,  Aren't you a little bit afraid ?



Isn't it amazing?    We are basically a banana republic.  The guy is put in charge because he is banging the presidents daughter.  Literally no other credentials.  I think he's in charge of the opiod crisis as well.

Everyone on the R side is fine with it though.  It is amusing to see how many things can be justified when its your team.  Totally fine.  Its the culmination of years of expertise and science bashing from the repubs.  Anyone can be an expert now.  expertise is overrated anyway. what could go wrong?  ohhhh wait......


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## skinowworklater (Apr 4, 2020)

machski said:


> We'll all have to wait another year to ride the Kanc8 at Loon.  Boyne is postponing that install and the Swift Current 6 at Big Sky due to concerns they may not be able to finish the lifts this season on a compressed timeline.  SK stated both locations would be hurt with no lift in the current alignments worse than waiting.  In the case of Swifty's replacement, the lift build in Austria is almost complete and will be shipped and stored somewhere in the US for next season (SK mentioned it is already Boyne owned).  No word on if the same will be true for the Kanc8.
> 
> Sent from my SM-T830 using AlpineZone mobile app




Not surprising.  So where does this leave the "2030 Plan" for Sunday River and Sugarloaf......2035?:???:


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## machski (Apr 4, 2020)

thetrailboss said:


> Was going to say that Boyne is postponing their work as well....based on $22 million in lost revenue due to closing early (!)


Sorry trailboss, not why Boyne is delaying the lift installs.  It is because they are concerned if they take Swifty and Kanc down to do the installs, construction could get stopped by a new flare up of the virus.  Swifty is almost completely fabricated and will be shipped to the US, probably to sit in containers at Big Sky through this coming winter.  SK stated he hates to see a new lift that Boyne already owns just sitting and not installed.  But no Swifty at all is too big a risk to go ahead this summer.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## thetrailboss (Apr 4, 2020)

machski said:


> Sorry trailboss, not why Boyne is delaying the lift installs.  It is because they are concerned if they take Swifty and Kanc down to do the installs, construction could get stopped by a new flare up of the virus.  Swifty is almost completely fabricated and will be shipped to the US, probably to sit in containers at Big Sky through this coming winter.  SK stated he hates to see a new lift that Boyne already owns just sitting and not installed.  But no Swifty at all is too big a risk to go ahead this summer.
> 
> Sent from my Pixel 3 using AlpineZone mobile app



That’s true, but I think losing $22 mill due to the same issue (Covid19) also slows things down....


https://liftblog.com/2020/04/03/big-sky-and-loon-mountain-postpone-lift-projects-to-2021/


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## skiur (Apr 4, 2020)

machski said:


> Sorry trailboss, not why Boyne is delaying the lift installs.  It is because they are concerned if they take Swifty and Kanc down to do the installs, construction could get stopped by a new flare up of the virus.  Swifty is almost completely fabricated and will be shipped to the US, probably to sit in containers at Big Sky through this coming winter.  SK stated he hates to see a new lift that Boyne already owns just sitting and not installed.  But no Swifty at all is too big a risk to go ahead this summer.
> 
> Sent from my Pixel 3 using AlpineZone mobile app



Yeah, losing 22 million had nothing to do with it!  It has to be true cause it's what they said!!


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## jimk (Apr 4, 2020)

NY DirtBag said:


> Isn't it amazing?    We are basically a banana republic.  The guy is put in charge because he is banging the presidents daughter.  Literally no other credentials.  I think he's in charge of the opiod crisis as well.
> 
> Everyone on the R side is fine with it though.  It is amusing to see how many things can be justified when its your team.  Totally fine.  Its the culmination of years of expertise and science bashing from the repubs.  Anyone can be an expert now.  expertise is overrated anyway. what could go wrong?  ohhhh wait......



Riddle me this, before covid I would have said Trump was a shoe-in for re-election, now I'm far less sure.

And just to keep this post about skiing there's this:-D


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## EPB (Apr 4, 2020)

skiur said:


> Yeah, losing 22 million had nothing to do with it!  It has to be true cause it's what they said!!


The lift manufacturers are going to get hammered this year.

Sent from my VS988 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## drjeff (Apr 5, 2020)

Listening right now to the latest Storm Skiing Podcast episode that dropped... Stuart, the host, is interviewing National Ski Areas Association President, (and former Mount Snow GM) Kelly Pawlak, about COVID-19 and the effects on the industry.

One of the figures Kelly cited that floored me, was exactly how many folks are employed by the ski industry (both full time year round and part time seasonal employees), and that is 965,000!!

Also was mentioned that the estimated loss for the ski industry will be about 2 BILLION dollars, and that some of the larger Western Resorts in particular will end up loosing about 1/4-1/3 of their annual revenue with the loss of March and April....

Crazy numbers... Very interesting interview as well

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using AlpineZone mobile app


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## machski (Apr 5, 2020)

skiur said:


> Yeah, losing 22 million had nothing to do with it!  It has to be true cause it's what they said!!


If Boyne didn' t already own the new Swift Current 6 fully I might agree.  But they have continued forward paying Dopp for both lifts.  So the loss has no bearing on install, they are concerned with the work stoppages now and potential for a second stoppage later this year.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 5, 2020)

drjeff said:


> larger Western Resorts in particular will end up loosing about 1/4-1/3 of their annual revenue with the loss of March and April....



I think 1/3 seems a bit drastic.  They're empty in April, and no major revenue period falls in March.


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## Rowsdower (Apr 5, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> I think 1/3 seems a bit drastic.  They're empty in April, and no major revenue period falls in March.



A lot of folks schedule vacations in March as snow packs are hitting their peak. It's not a typical vacation period but I can see it being a non-trivial part of their income.


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## drjeff (Apr 5, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> I think 1/3 seems a bit drastic.  They're empty in April, and no major revenue period falls in March.



When you factor in skiers visits (including Spring breakers and their families), all of the lodging and rental, lesson and food and beverage income, as well as some of the convention and wedding income, Kelly said that some, but by no means all, of the larger destination Western resorts can have the March/April time frame being that much of a significant income production time for them.

In the roughly 15 years I've known Kelly (heck, her daughter even babysat for my kids in the past at one point), she's always been a straight shooter when it comes to her facts and figures, and given the entire context of the situation as well as the context within that podcast, I doubt that she'd change  something like that stat


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## machski (Apr 5, 2020)

Rowsdower said:


> A lot of folks schedule vacations in March as snow packs are hitting their peak. It's not a typical vacation period but I can see it being a non-trivial part of their income.


Unlike the North East, most of the rest of the country only has a single school week break in the second half of the school year.  That is normally spread out all through March.  So to say March isn't a normal vacation week for the Western resorts is just straight up wrong.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## thetrailboss (Apr 5, 2020)

Vail is tapping into $500 million line of credit to get through this.

http://investors.vailresorts.com/static-files/4d5e7f25-17f9-4821-aa26-7fe2b76335bb


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## Rowsdower (Apr 5, 2020)

Businesses are gonna get ridiculously leveraged after all this. Been reading about numerous corps floating bonds or taking lines of credit so as not to cut dividends. Insanity.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 5, 2020)

Rowsdower said:


> *A lot of folks schedule vacations in March as snow packs are hitting their peak.* It's not a typical vacation period but I can see it being a non-trivial part of their income.



I do, but I think that's more the niche AZ' types.  Nevertheless, even if not, it's really not "March & April", so much as mid-March & April.  I think most closed around March 15th'ish.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 5, 2020)

thetrailboss said:


> Vail is tapping into $500 million line of credit to get through this.



Vail taking-on too much debt just really makes me shed a tear.


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## thetrailboss (Apr 5, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> Vail taking-on too much debt just really makes me shed a tear.



I stand corrected.  They took on more than $500 million in Mid-March.


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## EPB (Apr 5, 2020)

thetrailboss said:


> I stand corrected.  They took on more than $500 million in Mid-March.



This is consistent with what I've seen as a high yield lender. Companies have revolving credit lines, which are basically pre-negotiated credit cards. Many (if not most) have partially or fully drawn them down because they rightly have no idea what's coming next. Hopefully, they're done out of extreme caution, but time will tell.

Sent from my VS988 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## ss20 (Dec 9, 2020)

I think it might be panic time in the Vail boardroom....apparently their "weather-proof" strategy isn't exactly weather-proof as everyone but the PNW and Jackson Hole are really hurting for snowfall.  Whistler is doing well, but....travel restrictions.  

Year-to-Date snowfall-
Vail- 46"
Breck- 55"
Park City- 42"
Northstar- 30"
Sunapee- 1"?
Stowe- 43" (not to bad honestly)

A decent storm is headed to Colorado, but they're in REALLY bad shape.  Pretty much everyone still on WROD.  Probably gonna get a foot but need 3+.  Same deal for Park City.  Northstar/Kirkwood will be getting a big storm but nobody is touching California with a ten foot pole right now.  The East is a different deal as we could get 2 feet of snow on the weekend before Christmas and be 100% open over the course of a day, but the slow start certainly isn't good and more rain coming for the weekend.  Out west there needs to be big storms coming and coming quick for Christmas week to have a good selection of terrain open.  Unfortunately long-term it looks like it'll dry out again.

While the season pass $$$ is locked in, I'm interested to see how things play out with lodging and F/B where Vail makes their money.  I'm sure profits were  already going to be tight with capacity restrictions but if there's no snow what do you do if your hotel capped at 50% capacity is at only 50% of that capacity?


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## ScottySkis (Dec 9, 2020)

ss20 said:


> I think it might be panic time in the Vail boardroom....apparently their "weather-proof" strategy isn't exactly weather-proof as everyone but the PNW and Jackson Hole are really hurting for snowfall.  Whistler is doing well, but....travel restrictions.
> 
> Year-to-Date snowfall-
> Vail- 46"
> ...


Utah generally get more good white lines by a lot compared to co


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## FBGM (Dec 9, 2020)

This is not unheard of for west and intermountain west. Past few years have been decent early so everyone freaks when it doesn’t snow early season. I’ve seen worse.

The real issue is lack of people, food and lodging.


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## thetrailboss (Dec 9, 2020)

FBGM said:


> This is not unheard of for west and intermountain west. Past few years have been decent early so everyone freaks when it doesn’t snow early season. I’ve seen worse.
> 
> The real issue is lack of people, food and lodging.


Exactly.


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## raisingarizona (Dec 10, 2020)

BenedictGomez said:


> I do, but I think that's more the niche AZ' types.  Nevertheless, even if not, it's really not "March & April", so much as mid-March & April.  I think most closed around March 15th'ish.


Way wrong.
March is western ski areas $ making time. All of the western states do spring break in March and it’s staggered regionally, this is likely by design to keep the tourism industry afloat and not overwhelmed in a shorter window.

A ski area like Purgatory pretty much makes all of their profits during the Christmas holiday period, Presidents’ Day week in February and all of March. Losing half of March is a major, MAJOR blow.


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## raisingarizona (Dec 10, 2020)

FBGM said:


> This is not unheard of for west and intermountain west. Past few years have been decent early so everyone freaks when it doesn’t snow early season. I’ve seen worse.
> 
> The real issue is lack of people, food and lodging.


Truth. The pattern changes in a few days. Ski areas north of me are gonna start getting storms. The early season dry spell is pretty normal.


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## mbedle (Dec 10, 2020)

The early read on this thread is pretty funny.... lol


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## Tonyr (Dec 10, 2020)

FBGM said:


> This is not unheard of for west and intermountain west. Past few years have been decent early so everyone freaks when it doesn’t snow early season. I’ve seen worse.
> 
> The real issue is lack of people, food and lodging.


Agreed, I'm out here now. While the skiing at Beaver Creek is currently not very good, Keystone and Vail have been solid relatively speaking. Aspen mountain has more than half of it's terrain open. (Snowmass isn't great though) The resturants and hotels on the other hand are dying. I've heard the hotels in BC are only half full during the holiday season this year.


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## abc (Dec 10, 2020)

mbedle said:


> The early read on this thread is pretty funny.... lol


Totally!

Even better, read the early posts of the many threads during the initial shutdown last March, you'll be able to identify those self-proclaimed "expert" in whatever the fashionable topic at the time (some changed their "field of expertise" overnight following the fashion too) and recall what they CONFIDENTLY PREDICT back then vs. reality now! 

Comedy gold!


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## dblskifanatic (Dec 10, 2020)

Having lived in Colorado for the past 5 years, I have seen this type pf start three times.  The weather pattern in August/September/October this year and last year were very dry.  October and November are traditionally low snow months historically speaking.  2018 was a whole other story.  December generally sees and increase in snowfall then January is often very boring the big months have been February into April and May has ushered in some nice numbers every year we were there.

In fact, ot show how bad it was last year, much of the upper terrain at Breck and East Wall at A Basin were not open until late into the season.  In fact, East Wall barely opened before Covid hit.  One of the huge differences out west is snow accumulation stays and builds unlike here where it snows then rains and then freezes and then snows - rinse and repeat.

So there may be low accumulation but when it comes, things open up fast in Colorado.  The conditions last year were always good.


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## tnt1234 (Dec 10, 2020)

mbedle said:


> The early read on this thread is pretty funny.... lol


Yeah...."When the virus is gone in a couple of months...."


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## ss20 (Dec 10, 2020)

tnt1234 said:


> Yeah...."When the virus is gone in a couple of months...."



We should just nuke the servers of all posts from March 15-April 15 2020


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## thetrailboss (Dec 10, 2020)

We are still very, very early in the season.  If we were in this position after MLK Weekend then I might agree.


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## raisingarizona (Dec 10, 2020)

tnt1234 said:


> Yeah...."When the virus is gone in a couple of months...."


Yup. There was some serious wishful thinking going on. We are in this deep for another year to year and a half I’d bet.


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## Smellytele (Dec 10, 2020)

raisingarizona said:


> Yup. There was some serious wishful thinking going on. We are in this deep for another year to year and a half I’d bet.


Thinking no more then 6 months but...


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## raisingarizona (Dec 10, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> Thinking no more then 6 months but...


Yeah heck, I don’t know but my friends in health care think it’s going to a whole lot longer but hopefully you’re right.


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## raisingarizona (Dec 10, 2020)

One prediction about vail unloading the less than desirable properties was definitely not recognizing the value to vail having feeder hills. It’s not about those areas alone but more in getting people near metro areas to spend vacations at the larger resorts.


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## cdskier (Dec 10, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> Thinking no more then 6 months but...


That would be my guess as well...but a lot depends on both vaccine availability and how willing people are to get the vaccine. If you get a lot of people avoiding getting it, then that would potentially lengthen how long the pandemic goes on.


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## Smellytele (Dec 10, 2020)

cdskier said:


> That would be my guess as well...but a lot depends on both vaccine availability and how willing people are to get the vaccine. If you get a lot of people avoiding getting it, then that would potentially lengthen how long the pandemic goes on.


I know this sounds cold and wouldn't happen but...

If you refuse to get the vaccine after 6 months then you should be left to die of stupidity unless there is a medical reason you can't get it.

On the other hand if people are dying from the vaccine that would be another whole story.


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## raisingarizona (Dec 10, 2020)

cdskier said:


> That would be my guess as well...but a lot depends on both vaccine availability and how willing people are to get the vaccine. If you get a lot of people avoiding getting it, then that would potentially lengthen how long the pandemic goes on.


I don’t think we are going know it’s effectiveness or how safe it is until a good while after it goes public


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## raisingarizona (Dec 10, 2020)

Smellytele said:


> I know this sounds cold and wouldn't happen but...
> 
> If you refuse to get the vaccine after 6 months then you should be left to die of stupidity unless there is a medical reason you can't get it.
> 
> On the other hand if people are dying from the vaccine that would be another whole story.


You must have a lot of faith in big pharma and government


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## cdskier (Dec 10, 2020)

raisingarizona said:


> You must have a lot of faith in big pharma and government


Government not so much...big pharma, yes (although I may be a bit biased there).


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## thetrailboss (Dec 10, 2020)

Getting back to the OP, looks like Vail has announced part of what they plan to do:









						Vail Resorts to Debut Seven New Lifts in 2021
					

Despite a 44 percent decline in earnings, Vail Resorts plans to invest in new lifts across five mountains in 2021.  The seven projects at Beaver Creek, Breckenridge, Crested Butte, Keystone and Oke…




					liftblog.com


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## snoseek (Dec 10, 2020)

thetrailboss said:


> Getting back to the OP, looks like Vail has announced part of what they plan to do:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Had to check real quick and the Attitash triple lives another year.


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## abc (Dec 10, 2020)

cdskier said:


> Government not so much...big pharma, yes (although I may be a bit biased there).


Same here. No connection to pharma though.

I'm glad others said it so I don't have to. But those who REFUSE to take the vaccine, they're free to get Covid. And those who fear the vaccine more than Covid, they're free to die. Or to have a lung so scarred by Covid they won't be skiing, more slopes for the rest of us. 

This is a free country. Free to die too.


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## ss20 (Dec 10, 2020)

thetrailboss said:


> Getting back to the OP, looks like Vail has announced part of what they plan to do:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It would be pretty pathetic if that's all they do across their entire portfolio.  But I give them grace for this being a pandemic year.  It'll be interesting what else they announce in March, if anything.


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## thetrailboss (Dec 10, 2020)

ss20 said:


> It would be pretty pathetic if that's all they do across their entire portfolio.  But I give them grace for this being a pandemic year.  It'll be interesting what else they announce in March, if anything.


The release implies more is to come.


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## thetrailboss (Dec 10, 2020)

snoseek said:


> Had to check real quick and the Attitash triple lives another year.


Well, there is still a chance...


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## ss20 (Dec 25, 2020)

Well the northeast properties Vail owns are going to be on life-support through the holiday week.

No one is having a great year elsewhere-

Northstar- 73% open (pretty damn good...but no tourists due to Lake Tahoe restrictions)
Vail- 60% open (not bad, around average from my understanding)
Crested Butte- 53% open
Keystone- 46% open
Breck- 28% open
Park City- 14% open

Whistler is having a good year but without Americans flying in it defeats the purpose of advertising a "weather-proof" season pass.

Maybe Mother Nature just hates Vail as much as this forum lol.  Ikon has places in the PNE and Jackson Hole which are doing quite well this year.  I lurk on Pugski they're getting as restless as we are, lol.


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## abc (Dec 25, 2020)

This maybe just another poor snow year like a couple years back (2018?). Of course, on top of Covid, it would be a sucker punch.

For the northeast, it's still too early to say anything about the season. I remember several years when the snow didn't come till February! Strangely, the mountains weren't crowded even when the snow came!

Though this year might be different. So many people have season pass, they'll all want to get their fair number of days out of it. So if it's a poor snow year, there's no way around the crowded mountains. We shall see.


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## kingslug (Dec 27, 2020)

If last year is any indication of crowding..this year will be worse. Even a hint of snow brought out the hordes..1 hour lines at Stowe. Skiing will never be the same. Epic has taken on a new meaning


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