# It's coming!



## Tin (Sep 29, 2016)

Let's start the season with a 348hour solution!


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## steamboat1 (Sep 29, 2016)

What was the problem?


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## Jully (Sep 30, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> What was the problem?



Summer


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## catsup948 (Sep 30, 2016)

Is that after the GFS sticks hurricane matthew over cape cod? Yikes!


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 1, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> Is that after the GFS sticks hurricane matthew over cape cod? Yikes!



Yeah, I see more OTS for this storm.


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## Tin (Oct 1, 2016)

I initially posted just because of the snow. 




ALLSKIING said:


> Yeah, I see more OTS for this storm.



Yes, it is appearing that way and I would hope it does. I'm all for weather, but the runs last night would have been an absolute disaster for New England and upstate NY. Leafs on trees + dry ground + 8-12" of rain + sustained 60-80mph =  Weeks without power in some areas, washing away base lodges, etc. Cape Cod and the shore would be like "Diet 1938" conditions.

This is from last night, luckily trending east.


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## Jully (Oct 1, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> Is that after the GFS sticks hurricane matthew over cape cod? Yikes!



Jesus. Snowmaking ponds would be full after that!


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## WoodCore (Oct 1, 2016)

Not trending far enough east and slowing down. This could get nasty! Granted it's a week out but still one to keep an eye on.


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 1, 2016)

WoodCore said:


> Not trending far enough east and slowing down. This could get nasty! Granted it's a week out but still one to keep an eye on.
> 
> View attachment 20748



Euro is king


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## yeggous (Oct 2, 2016)

ALLSKIING said:


> Euro is king



There is too much truth to that. We need to make American weather models great again.


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## Tin (Oct 2, 2016)

yeggous said:


> We need to make American weather models great again.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app




LOL, yes. 

Euro is king but has had some monumental misses in the past few years in terms of big weather events (Blizzard of 2015 it gave NYC feet of snow, they ended up with 8-10", DC Blizzard this year it put about a foot of snow there and they got 30"), that said it nailed Joaquin if I remember correctly.


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## catsup948 (Oct 2, 2016)

Hopefully Matthew skirts the coast and heads out to sea.  Looks like some possible cold building into eastern Canada after that.


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## mriceyman (Oct 2, 2016)

Euro has hardly been king lately.. But it has sandy under its belt and thats all the masses remember


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 3, 2016)

mriceyman said:


> Euro has hardly been king lately.. But it has sandy under its belt and thats all the masses remember
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Ummm...have you tracked this last storm?


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## Tin (Oct 3, 2016)

In terms of small window tracks and landfall, the NAM has actually modeled tropical systems very well inside 48 hours. It was the only one that really got Hermine earlier this year and had Irene (dont remember what it had for Sandy). Obviously it is always over juiced so it is not the best for snowfall.


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## catsup948 (Oct 13, 2016)

Looks like it could chilly after next week's warm weather.


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 13, 2016)

catsup948 said:


> Looks like it could chilly after next week's warm weather.



Man.. I hope so


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## dlague (Oct 13, 2016)

First major North American storm being delivered soon.

http://unofficialnetworks.com/2016/10/whistler-is-about-to-get-hammered-40-inches-forecasted


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## Not Sure (Oct 13, 2016)

dlague said:


> First major North American storm being delivered soon.
> 
> http://unofficialnetworks.com/2016/10/whistler-is-about-to-get-hammered-40-inches-forecasted



On the same page,http://unofficialnetworks.com/2016/...chance-of-affecting-the-western-usa-this-fall


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## Jully (Oct 14, 2016)

Freeze warning here in Boston tonight. First one I think.


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## mriceyman (Oct 14, 2016)

The mid 70s next week should feel nice


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## Jully (Oct 14, 2016)

mriceyman said:


> The mid 70s next week should feel nice
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Yeah.......


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## Los (Oct 14, 2016)

mriceyman said:


> The mid 70s next week should feel nice
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



You're just kidding, right?


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## mriceyman (Oct 15, 2016)

Los said:


> You're just kidding, right?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



I own ice cream shops so not really kidding but yea im kidding lol


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## Los (Oct 15, 2016)

Haha ok good! 


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## dlague (Oct 15, 2016)

My wife is traveling back east and when checking the weather I noticed 80 degrees for Wednesday in Concord NH.  Now good.  We had our own warm up here on the frint range but staying a little cooler in the mountains.


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## dlague (Oct 15, 2016)

Open Snow posted this

Thursday (Oct 13) there was a forecast update from the Climate Prediction Center. The forecast has been modified and is now predicting La Nina conditions this fall/winter. You might recall, they were saying cool Neutral, which is borderline La Nina. Well, we are now crossing threshold of critical ocean temperature cooling, in the tropical Pacific, to La Nina territory, likely for fall and possibly the winter.


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## snoseek (Oct 15, 2016)

I'm probably alone here but I'm totally down with riding bikes in short sleeves this week. Anything that happens in October is totally irrelevant to the upcoming ski season. 

In another month or so ill start rooting for cold weather and snow...for now give me warmth. Anything that comes down probably aint staying.


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## chuckstah (Oct 15, 2016)

Take what you get. I'll be getting a couple beach days this week before   shutting down the summer house before the slopes open. The water on the south side of Cape Cod is still swimable (for natives anyway).  Ill also see if any fish are still around.  Hope to ski by Halloween!


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## SkiingInABlueDream (Oct 16, 2016)

snoseek said:


> I'm probably alone here but I'm totally down with riding bikes in short sleeves this week. Anything that happens in October is totally irrelevant to the upcoming ski season.
> 
> In another month or so ill start rooting for cold weather and snow...for now give me warmth. Anything that comes down probably aint staying.



+1 to all points!


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## slatham (Oct 16, 2016)

Let it be warm now and turn in early Nov for Thanksgiving turns!


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## JimG. (Oct 16, 2016)

Last time it snowed in October (2011) the season that followed totally sucked.

Warm is good, still enjoying the fishing.


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## andrec10 (Oct 16, 2016)

It also snowed last October. We remember how that turned out!


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## Not Sure (Oct 16, 2016)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wodTogQzRL8

Good news ,FF to 3:30
1996 Analog!


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## Edd (Oct 17, 2016)




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## dlague (Oct 17, 2016)

Edd said:


> View attachment 20854



Gotta happen sooner or later, right?


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## skibumski (Oct 17, 2016)

Extent of northern snowpack is well ahead of this time last year.  Usually a good sign.  Hope everyone is enjoying the warm weather for now!


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## Jully (Oct 17, 2016)

Hot dog. Signs of last winter being terrible were so frightening. I've practically blocked it from my memory already!


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## Jully (Oct 17, 2016)

Now that is a steep drop. Interesting to see if that holds up as the week progresses...


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 17, 2016)

Snow through Dec....


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## skibumski (Oct 17, 2016)

3/4 ain't bad... though let's go with the top right


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## dlague (Oct 18, 2016)

skibumski said:


> 3/4 ain't bad... though let's go with the top right



All the years I have lived in New England, I do not think I have seen that scenario.  The two on the left are more likely.


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## Tin (Oct 18, 2016)

NAO/AO dip, clippers, upslope, blocking, there was a miller B on one run and the EURO put 5" of snow down on another.All for late October. Models went full...


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## Tin (Oct 20, 2016)




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## ALLSKIING (Oct 20, 2016)

Still above average temps for the next few weeks. Things get fun mid Nov.


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## Jully (Oct 20, 2016)

Tin said:


>


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## slatham (Oct 20, 2016)

Whoa, calm down guys. Just because some fancy computer model spits out some pretty maps doesn't really mean a lot, especially this time of year when boundary layer temps are marginal and the ground is beyond warm. And I don't think I've ever seen one of those 45 day snowfall maps that shows a snowmageddon scenario actually verify. And I'll take the under on 18" of snow in the 'Dacks.

Still, it does get the juices flowing and it beats the blowtorch we've been having! A always, THINK SNOW!


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## Jully (Oct 20, 2016)

slatham said:


> Whoa, calm down guys. Just because some fancy computer model spits out some pretty maps doesn't really mean a lot, especially this time of year when boundary layer temps are marginal and the ground is beyond warm. And I don't think I've ever seen one of those 45 day snowfall maps that shows a snowmageddon scenario actually verify. And I'll take the under on 18" of snow in the 'Dacks.
> 
> Still, it does get the juices flowing and it beats the blowtorch we've been having! A always, THINK SNOW!



That map is from the 2008 storm. Hence my sadness as this is not 2008.


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 20, 2016)

http://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-daily-update-30?full


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## Tin (Oct 20, 2016)

Jully said:


> That map is from the 2008 storm. Hence my sadness as this is not 2008.



Damn it! I was hoping no one would catch it. I can see Jay and Stowe getting 3-4" up high but nothing like the October systems from 2008 or 2005. The Euro really goes wild with upslope though. Wait and see. Just hope to see some flakes at Magic on Saturday.


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## dlague (Oct 20, 2016)

New England first snow?

https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/newe...erm=facebook&utm_campaign=newenglanddailysnow


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## Los (Oct 20, 2016)

You can "think snow" all you want -- it won't change the fact that all signs are pointing to a winter that is, at best, only marginally better than last year. 

And no offense, but "think snow"? Personally, I can understand "pray" for snow (although I understand that is offensive to some), but "think" snow? It's absolutely meaningless. Pure tripe. 

Again, no offense. 


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## Los (Oct 20, 2016)

Sorry to be snippy - I'm just really bummed out. All the baseless positivity in the world won't help. 


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## deadheadskier (Oct 20, 2016)

Los said:


> You can "think snow" all you want -- it won't change the fact that all signs are pointing to a winter that is, at best, only marginally better than last year.
> 
> And no offense, but "think snow"? Personally, I can understand "pray" for snow (although I understand that is offensive to some), but "think" snow? It's absolutely meaningless. Pure tripe.
> 
> ...



I'm curious where you are getting "all signs" from?  That's a strong deceleration.

I rarely participate in any long term weather discussions on AZ because in 41 years, the only conclusion I've come up with is our New England weather is a total crap shoot.  

Was the record snowfall for southern New England predicted by many two years ago?  Was this summer's incredibly sunny and record draught predicted by many?

Maybe they were.  I just have a really hard time paying attention to anything more than a five day forecast.  

I just try and remain positive and hope Wildcat gets 150"+ with some sustained cold and minimal thaws. That happens and I'm sure I'll get to ski some good stuff


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 20, 2016)

Los said:


> You can "think snow" all you want -- it won't change the fact that all signs are pointing to a winter that is, at best, only marginally better than last year.
> 
> And no offense, but "think snow"? Personally, I can understand "pray" for snow (although I understand that is offensive to some), but "think" snow? It's absolutely meaningless. Pure tripe.
> 
> ...



What reports are you reading about this up coming winter?


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## dlague (Oct 20, 2016)

dlague said:


> New England first snow?
> 
> https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/newe...erm=facebook&utm_campaign=newenglanddailysnow



Hello!  First snow?


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## bigbog (Oct 21, 2016)

dlague said:


> Hello!  First snow?



Possibly a few inches in the higher elevations overnight.? or is it Saturday night..???  Local station, here in Bangor, was mentioning the Possibility of the rain, over northern VT, NH or Maine's western mountains...changing over to wet snow for a while.


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## dlague (Oct 21, 2016)

It's a start at least!


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## Jully (Oct 21, 2016)

Tin said:


> Damn it! I was hoping no one would catch it. I can see Jay and Stowe getting 3-4" up high but nothing like the October systems from 2008 or 2005. The Euro really goes wild with upslope though. Wait and see. Just hope to see some flakes at Magic on Saturday.



Haha i shouldn't have said anything. Better yet just erase the 2008 in MS Paint next time! Get everyone all riled up.


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## Jully (Oct 21, 2016)

Los said:


> You can "think snow" all you want -- it won't change the fact that all signs are pointing to a winter that is, at best, only marginally better than last year.
> 
> And no offense, but "think snow"? Personally, I can understand "pray" for snow (although I understand that is offensive to some), but "think" snow? It's absolutely meaningless. Pure tripe.
> 
> ...



Yeah I'm curious too. For all the record years I remember there were years that looked the same initially and were totally different. 

Depends on your definition of marginal. If I can get a solid 30 day span of open trees, that'll be great haha. I think temps will be a lot better, which is priority 1 for me. Snowfall is a different story, but happiness is all relative right!?


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## mriceyman (Oct 21, 2016)

Because its not cold in october all signs point to a marginal winter? Thats not how this works


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 21, 2016)

mriceyman said:


> Because its not cold in october all signs point to a marginal winter? Thats not how this works
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Exactly.....from everything I have seen the turn will happen mid to somewhat later Nov. We will have winter this year no doubt.


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## DJAK (Oct 21, 2016)

Caught up with TK on this topic... 

http://www.wintrymixcast.com/single...d-Tim-Kelley-on-First-Widespread-Eastern-Snow


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## slatham (Oct 21, 2016)

Jully said:


> That map is from the 2008 storm. Hence my sadness as this is not 2008.



Yes, I missed the date stamp. Sorry 'bout that...


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## JimG. (Oct 21, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> I just try and remain positive and hope Wildcat gets 150"+ with some sustained cold and minimal thaws. That happens and I'm sure I'll get to ski some good stuff



My feelings exactly about Gore or Platty.


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## slatham (Oct 21, 2016)

Los said:


> You can "think snow" all you want -- it won't change the fact that all signs are pointing to a winter that is, at best, only marginally better than last year.
> 
> And no offense, but "think snow"? Personally, I can understand "pray" for snow (although I understand that is offensive to some), but "think" snow? It's absolutely meaningless. Pure tripe.
> 
> ...



I guess I am showing my age. Back in '70's there was a proliferation of bumper stickers that said THINK SNOW. I was a kid then and I guess that is just burned into my brain. Plus, it was always popular to say "Pray for surf" so I save my "praying" for surf.......

In any event, one man's "tripe" is another mans inspiration.

But to your real point, that "all signs are pointing to a winter that is....marginal"? What data are you basing this on? I subscribe to Accuweather and Weatherbell (because I myself am no expert) and they both indicate signs for a colder than normal winter, not marginal. Now they may be wrong, but they have well researched data to back them up. You?


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## dlague (Oct 21, 2016)

slatham said:


> I guess I am showing my age. Back in '70's there was a proliferation of bumper stickers that said THINK SNOW. I was a kid then and I guess that is just burned into my brain. Plus, it was always popular to say "Pray for surf" so I save my "praying" for surf.......
> 
> In any event, one man's "tripe" is another mans inspiration.
> 
> But to your real point, that "all signs are pointing to a winter that is....marginal"? What data are you basing this on? I subscribe to Accuweather and Weatherbell (because I myself am no expert) and they both indicate signs for a colder than normal winter, not marginal. Now they may be wrong, but they have well researched data to back them up. You?



Looks like another La Nina year.  They first thought that it would switch soon but now looks to be around into February before it weakens.


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## drjeff (Oct 22, 2016)

Watched a weather channel segment this morning about their thoughts on winter weather trends (so take all of this with a grain of weather channel salt!!) 

Their thoughts due to above average mid Oct snow on the ground in Eastern Siberia and how that has effected things in the past, is that a North Atlantic omega block with predominate, which is likely to bring at worst "normal" temps, and likely cooler than normal weather to the upper Midwest and East, with a warm, dry ridge setting up over the Rockies and Sierra's....

Time will tell....


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## slatham (Oct 22, 2016)

http://www.plattekill.com/webcam/image3.jpg

It's here! Plattekill web cam 1pm Saturday Oct 22


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## steamboat1 (Oct 22, 2016)

drjeff said:


> Watched a weather channel segment this morning about their thoughts on winter weather trends (so take all of this with a grain of weather channel salt!!)
> 
> Their thoughts due to above average mid Oct snow on the ground in Eastern Siberia and how that has effected things in the past, is that a North Atlantic omega block with predominate, which is likely to bring at worst "normal" temps, and likely cooler than normal weather to the upper Midwest and East, with a warm, dry ridge setting up over the Rockies and Sierra's....
> 
> Time will tell....


Sounds pretty much the same'

https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp


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## mriceyman (Oct 22, 2016)

slatham said:


> http://www.plattekill.com/webcam/image3.jpg
> 
> It's here! Plattekill web cam 1pm Saturday Oct 22



Beautiful


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## mriceyman (Oct 22, 2016)

mriceyman said:


> Beautiful
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone




Hunter
Not snowing down to base but nice to look at


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## andrec10 (Oct 22, 2016)

mriceyman said:


> View attachment 20884
> Hunter
> Not snowing down to base but nice to look at
> 
> ...



Giggity!


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## Edd (Oct 23, 2016)




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## benski (Oct 23, 2016)

This morning at sugarbush.


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## mriceyman (Oct 23, 2016)

Cant wait til this is everyday life again


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## slatham (Oct 24, 2016)

Fun fact - if the 11" at the top of Mansfield is verified, October will exceed MARCH for snowfall (11" vs 10.9"). Given this weeks forecast, we have a good chance that October will be the second snowiest of the Calendar year 2016, as February was 16.9" and April was 15.9". It would take some doing to over come January's 26.9" but who knows.

And how depressing are those numbers from last winter? Season total of 101.8"!


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## Jully (Oct 24, 2016)

slatham said:


> Fun fact - if the 11" at the top of Mansfield is verified, October will exceed MARCH for snowfall (11" vs 10.9"). Given this weeks forecast, we have a good chance that October will be the second snowiest of the Calendar year 2016, as February was 16.9" and April was 15.9". It would take some doing to over come January's 26.9" but who knows.
> 
> And how depressing are those numbers from last winter? Season total of 101.8"!



Jesus........


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