# One last 2013/14 snowstorm?



## BenedictGomez (Apr 9, 2014)

This would be just a bizarre setup with razor think margins, and it's still 7 days out with low-ish probability, but:

A) This is possibly the last hurrah for the Weather subforum, so..... why not. 
B) The 2 best models both have it

A minimum of 6" in n.VT etc... if it verified.


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## St. Bear (Apr 9, 2014)

Once again, the mainstream media is pushing these early model runs.  My mother mentioned that it was going to snow in NH next Thurs.  She has no business knowing this.


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## WWF-VT (Apr 9, 2014)

I am taking off my winter tires next Thursday so I hope it means final round of snow in VT


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## fbrissette (Apr 9, 2014)

WWF-VT said:


> I am taking off my winter tires next Thursday so I hope it means final round of snow in VT



We appreciate your sacrifice.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 9, 2014)

St. Bear said:


> *Once again, the mainstream media is pushing these early model runs.*  My mother mentioned that it was going to snow in NH next Thurs.  She has no business knowing this.



I ran these myself.  

This isnt a "lone wolf" run showing snow, it's been several days in a row, and on the two most accurate models.  

Precipitation looks good for the mountains, just too early to tell exactly where and whether it will be cold enough for snow (we'll need some luck there), but right now the models say yes.


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## steamboat1 (Apr 10, 2014)

WWF-VT said:


> I am taking off my winter tires next Thursday so I hope it means final round of snow in VT



Took them off last week. Sure as hell glad it stayed rain this past weekend or else I'd be pissed.


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## catsup948 (Apr 10, 2014)

I still have my winter tires on!  Temps are going to crash Tuesday after maybe tickling 60 Monday! 

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## MidnightJester (Apr 10, 2014)

Waiting in the ready. gooooo snow.


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## JDMRoma (Apr 10, 2014)

My snows came off last week too........would love to get the chance to test out the AWD with my Summer tires


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 10, 2014)

It's really dicey with timing and temps, and this could only be an ADK and northern Vermont (Stowe, Smuggs, Jay) thing in the first panel, but it's still there.

The first panel has just a TON of precipitation, I imagine it would be a monster hit for Whiteface,  but it might be a mix of rain, sleet, snow for Stowe, Smuggs, Jay, etc... depending on temps as it's really borderline there.







This second panel, however, is growing colder, and would be all snow for Whiteface, all of Vermont, all of New Hampshire, and even the Catskill mountains that are still open like Hunter.  This is still a pretty good amount of snow, though it might be on top of sleet and rain etc...  Hopefully if would replenish what's lost in the few 50s days and perhaps Monday's 65 degree mountain temps.


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## Savemeasammy (Apr 10, 2014)

I would love to see the mountains get some more action.  


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## catsup948 (Apr 10, 2014)

Maybe some thunder for southern new england as Monday could be a bit humid ahead of a wicked cold front!

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## BenedictGomez (Apr 10, 2014)

Joe Bastardi climbs onboard:



> *ECMWF insists freak interior eastern US snow event is on table *


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## lerops (Apr 10, 2014)

Intriguing. How would Maine do from this?


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 10, 2014)

lerops said:


> Intriguing. How would Maine do from this?



If it happens? 

The further west you are the better:  ADK > VT > NH> ME

Still a huge if. 

 It's on the models (even the horrendous US gov GFS has it now), but it's a Ruth Goldberg type of storm in that a lot of things have to happen right for snow to work.   However, if the southern air is a bit slower than currently modeled?  Then it would be game-on for an April storm to remember.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 10, 2014)

To get the gist of what I'm saying:

This is a 12-hour pane, and MUCH of this would be rain with snow the last 2,3,5 hours etc...






BUT.....

This is the 12 hour pane immediately following it, and ALL of this would be snow, and even on it's own it would be impressive.





So if the southern energy is slower than modeled, it would allow for the colder air to be in place earlier, and more of that first pane would be snow rather than rain/sleet/mix.    Lots of "ifs", and it's silly really 5 days out other than it's exciting snow porn to look at and hope for.


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## lerops (Apr 10, 2014)

Thanks, appreciate it very much.

When do you think we'll have a more definitive idea?


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 10, 2014)

lerops said:


> Thanks, appreciate it very much.
> *
> When do you think we'll have a more definitive idea?*



Twelve minutes before it happens.

Honestly, even if it doesnt "fall off the map" in the next few days or the temps dont surge above where snow isnt possible, even if this is on the models 24 hours out, I dont think many people will have the foggiest idea what will happen.

Which is why, IMO, you're not hearing ANY Mets even talk about this.  They're not touching it with a ten-foot pole yet.  Way too many variables with this, and the margins are small.


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## Cannonball (Apr 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> but it's a Ruth Goldberg type of storm....



Was she Rube's wife?


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## catsup948 (Apr 11, 2014)

This is a thread the needle event.   A lot has to go right for this to produce.  One thing that is really interesting is Monday morning it could be 50 for the low and Thursday morning some of the same spots could be hovering around zero.  Winter refuses to die up north!

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## St. Bear (Apr 11, 2014)

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Cannon-Mountain/6day/mid

5.5" at Cannon on Tues night, then temps in the teens.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 11, 2014)

00Z Canadian came in with similar Precip to the panes I posted, but signifcantly colder.  This is VERY good news if it holds. 

 Havent seen whether the 00z Euro followed suit, but hopefully it did.


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## from_the_NEK (Apr 11, 2014)

Holy crap, forecasts have Lyndonville hitting mid-70's on Monday!


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## Abubob (Apr 11, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> Holy crap, forecasts have Lyndonville hitting mid-70's on Monday!



And a low of around 20º Tuesday night!


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 11, 2014)

Also means that if this snowstorm DOESNT happen, the skiing is going to stink until the next warmup, which could be several days.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 12, 2014)

Canadian model still showing a potential 5" to 7" event Tuesday night.  

GFS about 3" to 6". 

NAM is too far away to capture, but you can project it's going to have at least 4" or more.

Euro I havent seen in a few days, but it was similar to the Canadian before.

I find it odd nobody in the media is talking about this, normally they would be by now at least saying "possible snow".


This pane would be all snow for VT, all snow the western 1/2 of MA, and most of NH (rain when you get south towards the ocean)


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## fbrissette (Apr 14, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Canadian model still showing a potential 5" to 7" event Tuesday night.
> 
> GFS about 3" to 6".
> 
> ...



I still see 6 inches of real snow for Northern Vermont.  What's your take BG ?


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 14, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> I still see 6 inches of real snow for Northern Vermont.  What's your take BG ?



Havent looked today, but it seemed like 4" to 6" on all the 00z runs, Really depends on how soon the cold air coming from the NW gets here.  If if gets here a few hours earlier than modeled, it could be a decent storm, if it ges here a few hours later than modeled, it's virtually nothing.  But either way it seems funny to me how nobody seems to be talking about this.   I feel like the > the uncertainty the < mets talk about weather. lol.  Run and hide sort of thing.


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## from_the_NEK (Apr 14, 2014)

Yeah, seriously. I don't think there are too many mets that want to be the guy talking about more snow this year. It will melt quickly.... Oh what's that?... It is barely going to get above freezing during the day on Wednesday. I can see the social media now :razz:


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 14, 2014)

Place your mountain snow bets:

GFS = mostly rain, 3" or so of snow
NAM = mostly rain 4" or 5" snow
Canuck = mostly rain 4" or 5" snow
UKIE = rain then about 8" snow
EURO = rain, then 3" or 4" snow


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## steamboat1 (Apr 15, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> Holy crap, forecasts have Lyndonville hitting mid-70's on Monday!



My car thermometer read 81 degrees in Rutland around 2pm yesterday. It was only a few degrees cooler up on the mountain.


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## ScottySkis (Apr 15, 2014)

I hear it now snowing on Tug Hill NY.


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## from_the_NEK (Apr 15, 2014)

ScottySkis said:


> I hear it now snowing on Tug Hill NY.



That is some loud snow!


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 15, 2014)

It has been raining like a bastard all day here @Smuggs.  That cold front & some snow cant get here soon enough or I imagine the damage will be too severe for most of the woods to hold up.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 15, 2014)

Began dumping while I was in Essex and for entire ride back to Smuggs.  Already have > 1" down.


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## Not Sure (Apr 15, 2014)

Ha.Did a double take....I have an inch of snow on my yard ,and looked at radar more on the way.... Maybe some backyard tomorrow


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## 〽❄❅ (Apr 15, 2014)

Snowing here in Philly now too.


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## catsup948 (Apr 15, 2014)

Snowing hard here in western mass!


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 16, 2014)

3.5" so far at the base and dumping.  Looks like this will hit 6" at the base, hopefully more up top.   

Not sure if skiing tomorrow would be wise though given everywhere got sopping wet today followed by 22 degree temps right now.


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## legalskier (Apr 16, 2014)




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## ScottySkis (Apr 16, 2014)

How much snow for K . Is Stowe and Jay gettting a lot more snow? Gore and White face wonder what they got? i got 2 ininces in the Shankgunk ridge hillls of NY high up. low elevation not much


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## WWF-VT (Apr 16, 2014)

Jay Peak  report  4/16 morning:

Heavy Snow.  Sun Later.

Well, we received three to five inches of snow last night.  Bad news; most of it won't be skiable due to the quick drop in temperature when rain switched to snow.  The terrain is most certainly Variable with a side of Frozen Granular - some spots you'll enjoy decent April powder turns, and in others, you'll be lucky to sink an edge


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## fbrissette (Apr 16, 2014)

WWF-VT said:


> Jay Peak  report  4/16 morning:
> 
> Heavy Snow.  Sun Later.
> 
> Well, we received three to five inches of snow last night.  Bad news; most of it won't be skiable due to the quick drop in temperature when rain switched to snow.  The terrain is most certainly Variable with a side of Frozen Granular - some spots you'll enjoy decent April powder turns, and in others, you'll be lucky to sink an edge



Bad news:  Crappy skiing for a couple of days in Northern Vermont
Good news: No more snowpack losses, good coverage for the upcoming long week-end


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## snoseek (Apr 16, 2014)

Enough snow and cold to create treacherous conditions, shut down local mtb trails for another week, and overall make things miserable/ Yeah no thanks. Maybe my blood got thinner out west this winter but it fucking snowed all the way down to coastal nh last night and is currently cold as hell! I skied Monday, there's plenty of snow....I'm rooting for warm temps and sunshine. We're getting to the time of year where new snow almost always makes the skiing dicey.


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## Savemeasammy (Apr 16, 2014)

The silver lining here:  snow preservation for a few more days.  Friday looks like a good day to go get it!


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## twinplanx (Apr 16, 2014)

I had half an inch of snow/ice on my windshield this AM. WTF? lol

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## dlague (Apr 16, 2014)

twinplanx said:


> I had half an inch of snow/ice on my windshield this AM. WTF? lol
> 
> Sent from my SCH-S735C using Tapatalk



No that is beautiful!


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## twinplanx (Apr 16, 2014)

dlague said:


> No that is beautiful!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



I agree, hence the "lol" ...but it almost made me late to work ;-) 

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## dlague (Apr 16, 2014)

twinplanx said:


> I agree, hence the "lol" ...but it almost made me late to work ;-)
> 
> Sent from my SCH-S735C using Tapatalk



My son missed his bus because of it and I was late for work and a meeting!  Oh well!  

I missed the lol!


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## twinplanx (Apr 16, 2014)

dlague said:


> My son missed his bus because of it and I was late for work and a meeting!  Oh well!
> 
> I missed the lol!
> 
> ...



It's all good  Being skiers/snowlovers, it's gotta make ya chuckle, regardless of the inconvenience! 

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