# Weather towards end of this month any better



## ScottySkis (Feb 7, 2012)

I was hoping to hear a long term for north.Vermont for last days i hope its cold any predictions


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## drjeff (Feb 7, 2012)

Scotty said:


> I was hoping to hear a long term for north.Vermont for last days i hope its cold any predictions



Stay tuned.... Looking like we might actually get some cold air to stick around for more than a few days, and maybe atleast a semi active storm pattern.  We'll see, as intermediate/long range models forseeing cold and active patterns from earlier this winter and reality haven't exactly panned out


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## hammer (Feb 7, 2012)

drjeff said:


> intermediate/long range models foreseeing cold and active patterns from earlier this winter and reality haven't exactly panned out


The story of the season unfortunately.


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## Abubob (Feb 7, 2012)

This is still ten days away and this comes and goes but its the next best chance.


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## John W (Feb 7, 2012)

SNOW DANCE, SNOW DANCE, SNOW DANCE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Everyone should do their snow dance........  Does anyone else have one???  If you do, you should do it..


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## 2knees (Feb 7, 2012)

Abubob said:


> This is still ten days away and this comes and goes but its the next best chance.


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## wa-loaf (Feb 7, 2012)

It's never going to snow again.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 7, 2012)

drjeff said:


> Stay tuned.... Looking like we might actually get some cold air to stick around for more than a few days, and maybe atleast a semi active storm pattern.  We'll see, as intermediate/long range models forseeing cold and active patterns from earlier this winter and reality haven't exactly panned out


That I like to hear, thanks Dr. Jeff


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## WJenness (Feb 7, 2012)

Abubob said:


> This is still ten days away and this comes and goes but its the next best chance.



I'll be in Utah then.

You're all welcome.

-w


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## Abubob (Feb 7, 2012)

John W said:


> SNOW DANCE, SNOW DANCE, SNOW DANCE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Everyone should do their snow dance........  Does anyone else have one???  If you do, you should do it..


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2012)

Slightly cloudy, zero chance of punctuation.


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## Abubob (Feb 8, 2012)

Abubob said:


> This is still ten days away and this comes and goes but its the next best chance.



Of course this won't happen unless the NAO goes negative and so far it showing no signs of cooperating.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 8, 2012)

The ADR weather guy, who IMO with his doom and gloom forecasts has been the most accurate of anyone this winter, is predicting....... more doom and gloom.



> Yet Another Phantom Pattern Change Around the Corner!  This over-arching weather pattern for this winter has become predictable to the point of boredom. But we're hearing rumors of another pattern change that won't be coming to fruition.



http://www.adirondackweathersite.com/


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## billski (Feb 8, 2012)

Nws btv


.long term /saturday through wednesday/...
As of 315 pm est wednesday...overall models and latest ensemble
data in good agreement with large scale synoptic pattern. This wl
feature mid/upper lvl trof acrs the ne conus over the wknd...with
much blw normal temps and the chcs for some snow showers.
However...cold snap wl only last 24 to 36 hrs...as long wave
pattern remains very progressive and waa develops by monday and
temps return to near normal. On saturday...the gem/nam/gfs show
sharp arctic frnt pushing acrs our cwa...with weak sfc low pres
development along the boundary. Th*is combined with secondary 5h
vort from developing mid/upper lvl trof and strong llvl caa wl
help to produce widespread snow showers with some light
accumulation likely. Given high fluff factor with deep favorable
snow growth and several hrs of good deep moisture profiles...combined with
upslope flw...snow accumulations acrs the mtns wl range btwn 2 and
5 inches with a dusting to several inches possible acrs the valleys
on saturday*. Models are still having difficulties with regards to
amount of llvl caa and associated details of llvl thermal
profiles. Ecmwf is much warmer than yesterday...while gfs is
cooler today...still thinking highs wl struggle in the single
digits/teens on saturday and drop blw zero overnight saturday.
Secondary surge arrives on sunday...with another round of snow
showers/squalls possible. Coldest 85h temps of -28c arrive at 18z
sunday along with 925mb temps around -24c...supporting highs near
0f mtns to single digits valleys. Given pres gradient and expected
gusty northwest winds...some wind chill highlights maybe needed on
sunday into sunday night. High pres quickly moves overhead on
sunday night and a southerly wind with warmer temps develop by
monday. Coldest time period looks to be sunday into monday...but
still some uncertainty with regards to llvo thermal profiles. Wl
use a compromise btwn the cooler gfs and warmer ecmwf.
Otherwise...waa develops monday into tues of next wk with temps
warming back to near normal lvls...along with a chance for light
snow showers.


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