# Christmas eve Noreaster



## Tooth (Dec 19, 2011)

Pray all. Its going to be close.


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## Smellytele (Dec 19, 2011)

Will
have to monitor rather potent shortwave approaching from the
midwest saturday...which is progged to move across the northeast
saturday night into christmas day. Where the associated surface
low tracks is still very much in question...but with arctic high
poised over eastern canada...ptype doesn`t appear to be in
question. Have indicated a low chance for snow christmas eve into
christmas day...but this situation bears watching for those
looking for a white christmas or with travel plans next weekend.


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## Puck it (Dec 19, 2011)

No NAO flip that I have seen.


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## Tooth (Dec 19, 2011)

Smellytele said:


> Will
> have to monitor rather potent shortwave approaching from the
> midwest saturday...which is progged to move across the northeast
> saturday night into christmas day. Where the associated surface
> ...



I'll hang my hat on anything at this point that calls for snow. Holy crap we need a shot of it. Anything just to make it look like winter will help my mood greatly.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 19, 2011)

That would be sweet let it s*** for everyone xmas gift


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## bobbutts (Dec 19, 2011)

Smellytele said:


> Will
> have to monitor rather potent shortwave approaching from the
> midwest saturday...which is progged to move across the northeast
> saturday night into christmas day. Where the associated surface
> ...



6z and 12z gfs look alot warmer, given that + 5 days out in this pattern I am worried about ptype still


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## Madroch (Dec 19, 2011)

Fear not, it will snow... I will be out of town.


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## Nick (Dec 19, 2011)

It would be typical that I would build a snowthrower, and then it will sonw the same day :lol: 

It's all good though, I'll take the natural stuff anyday, please just let it DUMP


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## watchoutbelow (Dec 19, 2011)

Accuweather has the White Mountains get 6 inches this weekend. We'll see.


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## 4aprice (Dec 19, 2011)

Puck it said:


> No NAO flip that I have seen.



Don't have to have a -NAO for a snowstorm.  You do need one however for sustained cold and I agree it has not flipped yet (AO either).  Still believe that flip is coming down the line.  Its been warm for a while now and no pattern lasts forever so I like or chances for the second half of the season.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## k123 (Dec 19, 2011)

Both weather.com scenarios showing snow for the interior northeast


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## watchoutbelow (Dec 19, 2011)

Fingers Crossed!


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## jaja111 (Dec 19, 2011)

Gonna happen. Gonna happen. Gonna happen. Gonna happen. Gonna happen. Gonna happen. Gonna happen. Gonna happen. Gonna happen. Gonna happen. Gonna happen. Gonna happen.


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## Northernflight (Dec 20, 2011)

I think I just started crying.


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## Glenn (Dec 20, 2011)

Weather dude this AM says the model runs over night have changed a bit. I guess it may be "slowing down" which could be good for those of us waiting for snow.....


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## ScottySkis (Dec 20, 2011)

k123 said:


> Both weather.com scenarios showing snow for the interior northeast



 I love that map could be the best X mas gift in a long time


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## drjeff (Dec 20, 2011)

Gotta hope that this time around that there actually is transfer of energy from the original low pressure system that is looking like it wants to track up the St. Lawrence River Valley to the secondary low off the Middle Atlantic Coast and then some strong development of that Low in the still WARM waters of the Atlantic (heck just in the last day or so the water temperature out in Long Island Sound FINALLY dropped below 50 degrees).

At this moment in time though what we really need is just SUSTAINED cold weather.  Natural snow would be nice, but 1 storm won't have the the naturals and tree areas suddenly open.  It will help, but many a tree area, has a bunch more debris down than usual this year.  So a number of "moderate" wet snow, base building storms will be even more important than usual for many a tree area this season


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## watchoutbelow (Dec 20, 2011)

NOAA's maps are showing pretty much off and on snow from late Thursday night until Monday for most of the interior Northeast. 

That would be nice.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 20, 2011)

Snow tires are going on Friday morning so this will probably fizzle out. Sorry ...


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## Tooth (Dec 20, 2011)

wa-loaf said:


> Snow tires are going on Friday morning so this will probably fizzle out. Sorry ...



Take one for the team and wait until it snows. :roll:


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## watchoutbelow (Dec 20, 2011)

Tooth said:


> Take one for the team and wait until it snows. :roll:



Don't worry, I'll make up for him putting his snow tires on. I blew out one of my snow tires towards the end of last winter and the replacement is still on back order. Won't get it until after new years. So I'm going to be sliding everywhere.


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## billski (Dec 20, 2011)

You know, I've gotta travel to see inlaws next week.  Skiing is not an option.  I'll let the base building begin, come back and you can tell me where to go.  If you haven't already.


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## WinnChill (Dec 21, 2011)

Our Christmas Eve storm may not happen.  Too many moving pieces--one gets out of place, the whole operation falls apart.  We'll be watching Friday for some light snow but even this one seems weak and light.  At least it remains cold for snowmaking efforts to continue from Thurs thru the weekend--not the best but it's all we got .


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## nekweather (Dec 21, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> Our Christmas Eve storm may not happen.  Too many moving pieces--one gets out of place, the whole operation falls apart.  We'll be watching Friday for some light snow but even this one seems weak and light.  At least it remains cold for snowmaking efforts to continue from Thurs thru the weekend--not the best but it's all we got .



I agree with WinnChill - It's essentially the only storm we can hang an ounce of hope on, but things will have to come together perfectly to make it happen....

The way I see it right now, is we'll have disturbance trekking across the Great Lakes Thursday that will hold some of the ingredients - cold air and energy. At the same time, a frontal boundary will either slowly align with the Appalachians or completely stall out providing the pathway for moisture from the south. A surface low should develop south of New England just as a cold front sags south from Canada with reinforced cold air at all levels. It'll be all about timing at this point...we'll want to see the low develop soon enough to tap the southern stream of moisture, and hopefully be a slow mover to allow cold air to filter in from the north and maximizing snow potential. Track will also be a big question and this is where things are already going south....As of this morning, the GFS and Euro have it skirting south of northern New England- (me pounding my desk) but I'm going to stupidly remain optimistic... hoping later guidance will dial in a better track as the 0 hour approaches.

Check out the Green Grass at our Snow Stake : http://www.nekweather.net/wxSnowcam.php


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## WinnChill (Dec 21, 2011)

nekweather said:


> I agree with WinnChill - It's essentially the only storm we can hang an ounce of hope on, but things will have to come together perfectly to make it happen....
> 
> The way I see it right now, is we'll have disturbance trekking across the Great Lakes Thursday that will hold some of the ingredients - cold air and energy. At the same time, a frontal boundary will either slowly align with the Appalachians or completely stall out providing the pathway for moisture from the south. A surface low should develop south of New England just as a cold front sags south from Canada with reinforced cold air at all levels. It'll be all about timing at this point...we'll want to see the low develop soon enough to tap the southern stream of moisture, and hopefully be a slow mover to allow cold air to filter in from the north and maximizing snow potential. Track will also be a big question and this is where things are already going south....As of this morning, the GFS and Euro have it skirting south of northern New England- (me pounding my desk) but I'm going to stupidly remain optimistic... hoping later guidance will dial in a better track as the 0 hour approaches.
> 
> Check out the Green Grass at our Snow Stake : http://www.nekweather.net/wxSnowcam.php



Since you took some fire recently, I figured I'd post the bad news this time!  hehe!  Teamwork, right?  

Yeah, let's hope for Friday.  Even though it looks cold enough for snow, it just looks so dynamically weak that it'll be tough to get much out of it...but we'll take it I guess.


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## nekweather (Dec 21, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> Since you took some fire recently, I figured I'd post the bad news this time!  hehe!  Teamwork, right?
> 
> Yeah, let's hope for Friday.  Even though it looks cold enough for snow, it just looks so dynamically weak that it'll be tough to get much out of it...but we'll take it I guess.



Seems to come with the territory round here...if you don't have snow to report, your going to get flak. But it's all in good fun! Fingers crossed that this will be the last bit of bad news for a little while...


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## drjeff (Dec 21, 2011)

Friday is looking like, at best, a "Nor'couple of incher" for say mainly central New England.  And Christmas day right now is looking more like a "NOT' easter"   Atleast it looks like the cold air will be present for the vast majority of ski country far more out of the next 10 or so days than it won't, so that's a step in the right direction!


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## hammer (Dec 21, 2011)

Any more info on the timing and amount on Friday?  Hoping to go to Wachusett that day...more concerned about travel impacts then anything else.


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## WinnChill (Dec 21, 2011)

hammer said:


> Any more info on the timing and amount on Friday?  Hoping to go to Wachusett that day...more concerned about travel impacts then anything else.



Generally late Thurs night/Friday AM.  Mixing line probably running through MA but Wachusett could benefit on the snowy side--probably at or just under half a foot or so depending where that mixing line is but the AM commute will be pretty sketchy.


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## billski (Dec 21, 2011)

Thanks for the brutal honesty guys.  Think I'll either go bowling or play some croquet today.


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## Bostonian (Dec 21, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> Generally late Thurs night/Friday AM.  Mixing line probably running through MA but Wachusett could benefit on the snowy side--probably at or just under half a foot or so depending where that mixing line is but the AM commute will be pretty sketchy.




Hey I would take 6 inches at my home mountain.  I haven't had a chance to get out there this season yet, so maybe saturday night may not be a bad thing.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 21, 2011)

Any chance of Ny Catskills getting some white stuff?


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## WinnChill (Dec 21, 2011)

Scotty said:


> Any chance of Ny Catskills getting some white stuff?



About the same chance as the Berks/N MA....all snow but just on the fringe.  But we'll watch for storm track changes today/tomorrow.


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## St. Bear (Dec 21, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> About the same chance as the Berks/N MA....all snow but just on the fringe.  But we'll watch for storm track changes today/tomorrow.



That's a lot better outlook than everything else I've read.


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## WinnChill (Dec 21, 2011)

St. Bear said:


> That's a lot better outlook than everything else I've read.



I should emphasize "fringe" as in between light accumulations and nothing at all.  Could be bust potential there.  We'll see.


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## Greg (Dec 21, 2011)

Personally I prefer forecasts 2-3 days out that point to "not much". Those are the ones that normally blow up. The massive storms 3 days out always seem like the ones that bust.


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## watchoutbelow (Dec 21, 2011)

Looks like we might either get some snow or ice in the middle part of next week as well.


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## hammer (Dec 21, 2011)

Greg said:


> Personally I prefer forecasts 2-3 days out that point to "not much". Those are the ones that normally blow up. The massive storms 3 days out always seem like the ones that bust.


I usually notice the same thing, but I also look at trends...and that's why I'm hopeful for Friday (provided timing doesn't screw things up) and I'm not expecting anything over the weekend.


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## billski (Dec 21, 2011)

*This is an interesting picture 1.5 days out*







RECREATIONAL FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
406 PM EST WED DEC 21 2011

.THE HIGHER SUMMITS FORECAST FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...

.TONIGHT...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOWER
TEENS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SUMMITS BECOMING
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. A CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SNOW
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS. WEST WINDS 15 TO
25 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.


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## billski (Dec 21, 2011)

*And Gray Maine steps up*


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## watchoutbelow (Dec 21, 2011)

We'll take what we can get.


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## GolfingOwl (Dec 22, 2011)

Heading up to Manchester/Stratton tonight and looks like we are bringing 3-6" with us.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ014&warncounty=VTC025&firewxzone=VTZ014&local_place1=4+Miles+S+Bondville+VT&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory


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## Bostonian (Dec 22, 2011)

Hopefully something will come out of it.  Last night was thundering and when I left the house this morning at 5:30 it was a whopping 54F outside.


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