# Dual Late Season Storm Thread



## ss20 (Mar 23, 2021)

Storm 1 is Friday and Friday night.  Pretty much a super-soaker for most of ski country.  High elevation and high north mountains could do well on the back-end with a few inches of snow (or more) after a rain start.  Models keep waving back and fourth on snow totals for this one.  

Storm 2 is Sunday-Monday and at this point is significantly colder than the first storm but precipitation type is still uncertain.  

Sugarloaf looks like it will be the most likely winner, but it could be anywhere from 2"-12" total between the two storms.  Everything is super elevation dependent but don't count winter out just yet!  If it's cold enough there's a lot of precip between these two storms...roughly 2.5"-3" of liquid.


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 23, 2021)

open snow is downright bullish about sunday-thursday. looks like a skip this weekend, and then a cannon/saddleback long weekend april 2-4 (we get off for good Friday!)


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## ss20 (Mar 23, 2021)

The Euro just nuked Maine...and this scenario isn't an outlier...it's been replicated across all three of the major models at varying points in time.


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## cdskier (Mar 23, 2021)

ss20 said:


> The Euro just nuked Maine...and this scenario isn't an outlier...it's been replicated across all three of the major models at varying points in time.


Honestly I'd be thrilled with what it shows for the result in VT as well...


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 23, 2021)

PINK AND PURPLE PINK AND PURPLE


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## dblskifanatic (Mar 23, 2021)

I know many here do not thinks highly of Accuweather but for what it is worth - I do not like this.  They have been pretty spot on this season.  See how this goes!


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 23, 2021)

this has been called for friday all week. friday-saturday, it gonn rain. its all about sunday-monday and beyond. this weekend is a washout.


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## ss20 (Mar 23, 2021)

dblskifanatic said:


> I know many here do not thinks highly of Accuweather but for what it is worth - I do not like this.  They have been pretty spot on this season.  See how this goes!
> 
> View attachment 51070



That is just the first storm.  That one is almost all rain, most likely.


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## cdskier (Mar 23, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> this has been called for friday all week. friday-saturday, it gonn rain. its all about sunday-monday and beyond. this weekend is a washout.



Yup...this looks to be the first Friday since I got up to VT that I'm not going to ski after I finish working....


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 23, 2021)

my girlfriend LOVES when it rains on Friday>Saturdays in the winter 

bitch is gonna get me watching rom-coms, going shopping for house plants. but there will probably be sex!


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## kingslug (Mar 23, 2021)

Thankfully we have 2 big TV rooms....


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## 2Planker (Mar 23, 2021)

Fri will be all rain, High 60
Sun 1'-3" wet snow before changing over to rain, High 40


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 23, 2021)

hope fuels generations


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## chuckstah (Mar 23, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> hope fuels generations
> 
> View attachment 51093


Looks like the long drive to Saddleback will be in order if that dream comes true.... Indy.


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## ThatGuy (Mar 23, 2021)

Cannon and Saddleback Indy days for me if it comes to fruition.


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## Glenn (Mar 24, 2021)

This is why I leave the snow stakes in up north until late April....


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## snoseek (Mar 24, 2021)

So is this still trending good or is it just gonna rain?


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## NYDB (Mar 24, 2021)




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## Smellytele (Mar 24, 2021)

snoseek said:


> So is this still trending good or is it just gonna rain?


Matters where and when...


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## ss20 (Mar 24, 2021)

snoseek said:


> So is this still trending good or is it just gonna rain?



Consistently showing 6"+ in Maine for Sunday.  Vermont is the big question mark.

And also fwiw Friday night's rain is looking like a lot less and colder.  Both Noaa offices in Grey ME and Burlington VT increased their snow forecasts for Friday from .1" to 1" lol.


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## kingslug (Mar 25, 2021)

Stowe's site says  "heavy snow Sunday 5 to 8 inches throughout the day" other sites..do not..maybe an inch..so who knows.  My place is rented so I don't care..which means..it just may happen..then..I will care. I'll be at Hunter Saturday skiing some mud.


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## Smellytele (Mar 25, 2021)

kingslug said:


> Stowe's site says  "heavy snow Sunday 5 to 8 inches throughout the day" other sites..do not..maybe an inch..so who knows.  My place is rented so I don't care..which means..it just may happen..then..I will care. I'll be at Hunter Saturday skiing some mud.


GFS and NOAA do not back that snow up but they have been wrong many times.


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## kingslug (Mar 25, 2021)

And thats the thing...drive 5 hours..or not. In PC they predicted an inch and I woke up to a foot.


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## Smellytele (Mar 25, 2021)

NOAA is just showing snow showers for Sunday-Monday now at Saddleback


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## machski (Mar 25, 2021)

Not looking strong to the white side as of now.  Still a chance, but most everyone is off of it.  When Tim Kelley jumps off the bandwagon, that's a bad sign.


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 25, 2021)

this march is fucking bullshit.


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## Dickc (Mar 25, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> this march is fucking bullshit.


Take that beef right to Mother Nature.  She is in charge.


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## NYDB (Mar 25, 2021)

it was a great 40 days of winter.  Plus the 3 footer mid dec that lasted a week


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## cdskier (Mar 25, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> this march is fucking bullshit.



I couldn't agree more...


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## slatham (Mar 25, 2021)

Another head fake from the once mighty Euro. The new GFS wins it’s first battle. Piss poor March as far as snowfall.


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## WWF-VT (Mar 25, 2021)

Flood Watch in Effect for the Northern Adirondacks and much of Central and Northern VT Friday and Saturday​A Flood Watch is now in effect for the Northern Adirondacks in NY and much of central and northern VT. Widespread rainfall is expected across the area on Friday. Rainfall, combined with higher elevation snowmelt will lead to sharp rises on area rivers and higher elevation streams. Some rivers may approach bank full or reach minor flood levels later Friday into Saturday. Read More >


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## kingslug (Mar 26, 2021)

Welcome to...............MUD SEASON
This sux but it ended up my longest season at 43 days. maybe Hunter tomorrow but they took a big hit. oh well.


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 26, 2021)

i dont even know why i bother letting myself get a little excited, but please fucking snow into next weekend.


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## cdskier (Mar 26, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> i dont even know why i bother letting myself get a little excited, but please fucking snow into next weekend.
> 
> View attachment 51184


Realistically that won't be enough to matter in terms of helping natural terrain even if it did happen. I wouldn't be surprised if MRG is done after this weekend (assuming they even still have enough snow left tomorrow to open). But I guess it would be still nice to improve the skiing on the snow-making trails at other resorts.


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## Cornhead (Mar 26, 2021)

It's all my fault, still have snows on my car.


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## Keelhauled (Mar 26, 2021)

Downpouring in central VT right now.


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## kingslug (Mar 26, 2021)

oh..wonderfull..nice and sunny here in NYC....


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## Keelhauled (Mar 26, 2021)

Update: looking downright biblical out there


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## hovercraft (Mar 26, 2021)

Bummer on lack of snow but the bluebird days along with temps in the 50 range has made for some great spring riding!!!!


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## Smellytele (Mar 26, 2021)

Sunny and 71 here in central NH. Humid!


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## Dickc (Mar 26, 2021)

Reports of a possible tornado near Warren on up to Stowe.


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## kingslug (Mar 27, 2021)

Great..now they'll be flying cows around...


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## kingslug (Mar 27, 2021)

Have to wonder where Stowe gets its weather info. Not that I'll complain if they get the foot wed/thurs  they show coming.


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 27, 2021)

the tornado touched down in middlebury and done fucked shit right up.


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## kingslug (Mar 27, 2021)

Holy shit.....


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## kingslug (Mar 30, 2021)

I guess we will know Friday where the storm went. Looks like snow is for sure..how much?


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 30, 2021)

kingslug said:


> I guess we will know Friday where the storm went. Looks like snow is for sure..how much?



north and west. cancelled my reservation near cannon. made a new one in stowe. plan is jay friday, sugarbush saturday, killington or stratton sunday.


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## kingslug (Mar 30, 2021)

So glad the wife rented our place out...just...great.


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## kingslug (Mar 30, 2021)

Sporty ride up there Thursday..super early start Friday would be the plan...hmmm.


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 30, 2021)

ya i was going to drive up late night thursday into friday, but i think getting as far as stowe after work thursday night is the safer play, so i got a cheap room at the stowe inn. have only passed thru stowe on 100 this season, haven't been up mountain road at all. will be nice to grab some beer at alchemist and dinner from doc pond. hill farmstead opens back up on the 7th.


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## kingslug (Mar 30, 2021)

Heady Topper...the best.
Driving to Jay in a storm would be ..less than fun.


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 30, 2021)

heady topper, not even close to the best, but was ahead of a trend.


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## Smellytele (Mar 30, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> heady topper, not even close to the best, but was ahead of a trend.


Like the hill farmstead offerings better.


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 30, 2021)

Smellytele said:


> Like the hill farmstead offerings better.



yea, hill farmsteads hazy NEIPAs are incredible, and most other brewers have really ran with the style in the past ~decade. topper was ahead of the curve for sure, but I've had many hazy new england IPAs that i think are better. other half here in nyc brews at least 10 id rather have than a heady.

i like getting/trying other things when i find myself at alchemist.

just checked their site. they are pretty limited right now. just heady, focal banger, luscious (imperial stout), and another 9% milk stout that i have not tried called knuckle dragger. i'd prob get 4 of those and a 4 of focal.

pro pig brews and cans some of their own good stuff now too.

too bad hill doesn't wake from hibernation til april 7. i always make a hill stop when i ski jay, except for this year. i was there in December, and my cellar is running thin.


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## kingslug (Mar 30, 2021)

Haven't tried much else from them...whats better?
Frost makes some good ones. I've stumbled out of Public House several times after sampling what they have. Great beer store and bar.


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## kingslug (Mar 30, 2021)

Blind Tiger Ale House NYC..I hear a can snap open...hmm I say is that a Heady Topper that just got opened....bartender looks at me...how the hell did you know that..shhh don't say anything...ok..i can be bribed. It was like gold around here years ago.


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 30, 2021)

kingslug said:


> Haven't tried much else from them...whats better?
> Frost makes some good ones. I've stumbled out of Public House several times after sampling what they have. Great beer store and bar.



i like focal banger better than heady topper, but in general i like other breweries better than alchemist. i'm just gonna be in stowe this weekend, only reason i brought them up. for my money, hill farmstead, frost, foam, foley brothers (lots of Fs here) are doing better beer in vermont. treehouse and trilium in MA do NEIPAs better than heady toppers in my opinion, and other half in nyc is like the king of the style. they pretty much only produce hazy IPAs and imperial stouts and have some crazy number of varieties they have produced, prob well over 100 different beers.


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## Zand (Mar 30, 2021)

I live literally 7 minutes from Treehouse and have never been


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## kingslug (Mar 30, 2021)

I quit drinking for a year..then the minute I get to Vt I have a Sip o Sunshine in my hand... hard not to drink beer in VT..too many good ones.


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 30, 2021)

Zand said:


> I live literally 7 minutes from Treehouse and have never been



they brew many great ones, but their Julius is one of the very best NEIPAs


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## kingslug (Mar 30, 2021)

Looking at Other Half site..I kind of remember drinking some of those...gets fuzzy after a few. I think Tres Amigos had them.


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## jimmywilson69 (Mar 30, 2021)

Other Half is primo

Big fan of Burlington Beer Company and Foam.   Frost also makes some great brews.   So does the Alchemist.  Hadn't had a Heady in like a year.  then I had it and was like damn this is still a great beer!  Focal banger is better though   



kingslug said:


> hard not to drink beer in VT..too many good ones.



That is the reason I always come home with a car full of beer from up there!  

Its been nice though as BBCo Foleys, and Lawsons regularly is distributing to Central PA now


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## kingslug (Mar 30, 2021)

Tried quitting 100%...down to 80%..life's too short.


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 30, 2021)

jimmywilson69 said:


> Other Half is primo
> 
> Big fan of Burlington Beer Company and Foam.   Frost also makes some great brews.   So does the Alchemist.  Hadn't had a Heady in like a year.  then I had it and was like damn this is still a great beer!  Focal banger is better though
> 
> ...



lawsons has outsourced a lot of their production to a facility in Connecticut, and that tends to be what we see in the tri-state and mid-atlantic


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## ss20 (Mar 30, 2021)

I too will be at jay Thursday/Friday...gonna be a busy place lol.


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## HowieT2 (Mar 30, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> lawsons has outsourced a lot of their production to a facility in Connecticut, and that tends to be what we see in the tri-state and mid-atlantic


sip of sunshine and super session are brewed in CT and distributed outside of VT.  everything brewed in waitsfield is VT only.


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## kingslug (Mar 30, 2021)

Sip is a good go to beer..even Trader Joes has it.


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## Bumpsis (Mar 30, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> lawsons has outsourced a lot of their production to a facility in Connecticut, and that tends to be what we see in the tri-state and mid-atlantic


I'm glad they are now more widely available. I used to have to ask "my" beer guy (stock manager) to save some for me when they got shipments in. Now, I can even find their Chinooker'd, which is just awesome.


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## MG Skier (Mar 30, 2021)

I was thinking about Jay for the weekend....not sure I can make it all happen. Lets hope the prediction turns out to be bigger or the Jay Cloud grabs hold of it! I agree, driving to Jay mid-storm is not the greatest plan but to get the goods..... Oh and this thread has Beer in it too......! On my way home from K-ton last Saturday, I restocked.....I forgot how much I missed Upper Pass offerings! Anyone had the Granite Roots in NH? Their IPA was very good!


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## kingslug (Mar 30, 2021)

Thinking about taking off Friday and going to Stowe super early..I do not want to drive in that Thursday night. Will decide tomorrow.


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## MG Skier (Mar 30, 2021)

Tim sounds optimistic...




__





						Weather by Tim Kelley | Jay Peak Resort
					

It's great to be back!




					jaypeakresort.com


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## drjeff (Mar 30, 2021)

kingslug said:


> Sip is a good go to beer..even Trader Joes has it.


Lil Sip is becoming a favorite of myself and multiple members of my skiing posse.

And if one is up in the area of the Lawson's mothership in Waitsfield, the Ruby Red Grapefruit Double Sunshine is mighty tasty!


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 30, 2021)

drjeff said:


> Lil Sip is becoming a favorite of myself and multiple members of my skiing posse.
> 
> And if one is up in the area of the Lawson's mothership in Waitsfield, the Ruby Red Grapefruit Double Sunshine is mighty tasty!




ya, that grapefruit beer is nice.

one of my favorite brewers in nyc is threes. their beers tend to get less hyped than other half's, but they make some really beautiful stuff, and they also have amazing spaces. the flagship in gowanus is part bar, part coffee shop, part restaurant, part music venue, part outdoor community space. the greenpoint venue is just a great bar of a bar. the huntington venue is new and i haven't been, but fuck yea to long island getting a decent craft beer spot!

anyway, threes just came out with a double IPA brewed with tangerine, passionfruit, guava, and pineapple, in collaboration with creature comforts brewing, and its excellent. been sipping these since Friday and they are reminiscent of the lawson's grapefruit


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## Funky_Catskills (Mar 30, 2021)

Stoked to get down to our apartment in Greenpoint - been rented out for the last year....  
Love me some Threes..


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## jimmywilson69 (Mar 30, 2021)

HowieT2 said:


> sip of sunshine and super session are brewed in CT and distributed outside of VT.  everything brewed in waitsfield is VT only.




that was true before COVID  we've been getting some things that are brewed in VT down here as well.  not as regular as Sip, Super Sessions though.   We have Little Sip now  I'm guessing that is brewed in CT  Didn't look at the can yet.


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## Zand (Mar 30, 2021)

MG Skier said:


> Tim sounds optimistic...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The sometimes accurate snow-forecast.com has 6-12 at Jay. Hopefully enough to get the low angle stuff in good shape again. Maybe enough to reopen stuff like Everglade although not sure it would be any good.


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 30, 2021)

i'll pretty much consider any powder tree skiing a win after the march we just had.


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## ss20 (Mar 30, 2021)

For people concerned about the drive...it's going to be rain if you're coming from the south/east probably til the late AM on Thursday when it'll switch over to snow and then be done pretty shortly after.  Even at Jay on the mountain this will start off as rain before switching over the snow sometime around midnight.  The I-91 corridor isn't going to get squat til you're within spitting distance of the Canadian border.  

I'd stay off the Thruway if you're trying to come up Thursday AM, but other than that I doubt you'll see too much of an issue.  This is going to be VERY elevation dependent.


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## kingslug (Mar 30, 2021)

I figure if I leave at 4am and roll up at 9..friday..im good to go. even 6 inches will be fine..reports showing this continuing into friday..who knows.


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## Smellytele (Mar 30, 2021)

drjeff said:


> Lil Sip is becoming a favorite of myself and multiple members of my skiing posse.
> 
> And if one is up in the area of the Lawson's mothership in Waitsfield, the Ruby Red Grapefruit Double Sunshine is mighty tasty!


The regular double I like better than single sip. I have been afraid of the ruby red but may have to try it.


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## kingslug (Mar 30, 2021)

I like the 1 beer buzz type of beers...9% does it.


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## jimmywilson69 (Mar 30, 2021)

I had a 10%er from other half the other week that straight up wrecked me...  I even drank it over like an hour.  

Makes beer #2 selection  difficult.


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## MG Skier (Mar 30, 2021)

Yeah, if we go at all it will be Friday after 4. Had hoped for Thursday pm or Friday AM, my girl has to work, couldn’t bang out on Friday! 
if you like north of 8% try some Trillium!!


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 30, 2021)

dot gov now has winter storm watch in effect and bumped up totals...


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## cdskier (Mar 30, 2021)

Clearly my beer tastes do not align with most of the people posting in this thread.    I'm more of a malt rather than hops guy and look for places that don't focus on making 20 different IPAs. I enjoy a nice amber ale or red ale. Or a black lager, etc. I love a lot of what Collaborative Brewing in Waitsfield does. Drop In Brewing in Middlebury has some good stuff. Stone Corral in Richmond is great (and has great food too). Lost Nation in Morrisville is another one with a number of beers in my styles along with good food.


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## ss20 (Mar 30, 2021)

The first chef I ever worked for always said... "cold n wet will do!".  The motto was very fitting for me being 16 at the time!  Those were the days...


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## Smellytele (Mar 30, 2021)

I can not drink lager anymore. Drank way too many when I was a teenager. 
Love a good brown ale. 
Also like a traditional stout. Not sure what the hell is going on with stouts and their flavors. It is like everyone calling every vodka drink a martini.
IPA’s are okay but some are too flowery for me.
Do not like German style such as Von Trapp makes.


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## kingslug (Mar 31, 2021)

I had this once..flown in from Scotland. GF got it for me. $160.00 for the bottle. https://www.beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/16315/54571/


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## kingslug (Mar 31, 2021)

Back to the storm. Forecasts all over the place...Friday morning? SOunds like Stowe will need 6 inches to cover the frozen or its going to be sporty as hell.


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## drjeff (Mar 31, 2021)

kingslug said:


> Back to the storm. Forecasts all over the place...Friday morning? SOunds like Stowe will need 6 inches to cover the frozen or its going to be sporty as hell.


Yup. Need a MAJOR shift in the storm track probably 75-100 miles East to get at least NOVT into the "safe" zone like the ADK's appear to be with this one. Not sure if that's remotely possible given that we're close to the onset of the storm and the agreement of the model with the storm track. Plus just not a ton of cold air around ahead of the storm for it to work with either.

This one may very well cause the proverbial fat lady to sing at the end of the weekend for many of those East of the Hudson that are still spinning the lifts. Been a tough week with 3 sizable liquid storms for New England by the time this one is done from what it looks like....


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## Zand (Mar 31, 2021)

Feel like Jay, Whiteface, and maybe Gore will be the only mountains to get a net positive out of this. Maybe Stowe/Smuggs/Bolton if things go well.

Jay might do well on the back end too.


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## kingslug (Mar 31, 2021)

Hope the 5 hour drive at 4 am is worth it. Who knows. I got lucky at PC with a foot of unpredicted...


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## Tonyr (Mar 31, 2021)

kingslug said:


> Hope the 5 hour drive at 4 am is worth it. Who knows. I got lucky at PC with a foot of unpredicted...


I've been up here since the weekend. Conditions at Magic, Mt. Ellen, and Stowe the last 2 days have not been great. I'm hoping this storm is a good one as well!

On another note I'm shocked at how large the crowds are during the week. Yesterday I went out for an hour during lunch and had to wait 20 minutes in the 4 runner line to get on. The gondola was 10 to 15 minutes, the mountain triple had no line. I've never seen lines like this mid week at Stowe. This photo was on Tuesday around 11.30 am, where I'm standing in the picture was 10 minutes or so into my wait.....


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## 2Planker (Mar 31, 2021)

MWV is sadly going to be 'Non crystaline precipitation" combined w/ the dreaded Snow Eating Fog....

The Fat Lady is warming up.....


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## jimmywilson69 (Mar 31, 2021)

that looks like Saturday...


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## drjeff (Mar 31, 2021)

Zand said:


> Feel like Jay, Whiteface, and maybe Gore will be the only mountains to get a net positive out of this. Maybe Stowe/Smuggs/Bolton if things go well.
> 
> Jay might do well on the back end too.


I think the issue for NoVT may be how much liquid falls before the change over to snow happens. And maybe with some luck, a dry slot will hit during the liquid phase and not the frozen phase of the storm, as it looks on the radar that this system has a fair amount of moisture in it....


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## cdskier (Mar 31, 2021)

Tonyr said:


> I've been up here since the weekend. Conditions at Magic, Mt. Ellen, and Stowe the last 2 days have not been great. I'm hoping this storm is a good one as well!
> 
> On another note I'm shocked at how large the crowds are during the week. Yesterday I went out for an hour during lunch and had to wait 20 minutes in the 4 runner line to get on. The gondola was 10 to 15 minutes, the mountain triple had no line. I've never seen lines like this mid week at Stowe. This photo was on Tuesday around 11.30 am, where I'm standing in the picture was 10 minutes or so into my wait.....
> View attachment 51239


Wow...there were a lot of people at K yesterday, but even there the lines were nowhere near that. Most lifts were 2-3 minute lines if they had a line. K1 Gondola was 5-10 minutes.


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## kingslug (Mar 31, 2021)

And I won't know until after I start driving. Since crowds like that are on a day with nothing...the crowds with even a hint of snow will be nuts...
Last year the late storm brought out hordes and with the quad and Gondi closed it was 1 hour waits for just the triple. 
And the hotel is not refundable. On that note ..what do you think of this: Hotel room advertised at $118.00..final price..$172.00  54 dollars in fees?


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## ThatGuy (Mar 31, 2021)

kingslug said:


> And I won't know until after I start driving. Since crowds like that are on a day with nothing...the crowds with even a hint of snow will be nuts...
> Last year the late storm brought out hordes and with the quad and Gondi closed it was 1 hour waits for just the triple.
> And the hotel is not refundable. On that note ..what do you think of this: Hotel room advertised at $118.00..final price..$172.00  54 dollars in fees?


Im thinking Jay is going to be packed this weekend hopefully they get blessed with snow. Also thats a joke, Air BnB is like that as well where they have one price listed then add on 50% in bs fees.


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## kingslug (Mar 31, 2021)

Worst part is the site i used has no cancel policy..If I used the actual hotel site I could cancel up to the 1st. Either way should be interesting few days.


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## drjeff (Mar 31, 2021)

Tonyr said:


> I've been up here since the weekend. Conditions at Magic, Mt. Ellen, and Stowe the last 2 days have not been great. I'm hoping this storm is a good one as well!
> 
> On another note I'm shocked at how large the crowds are during the week. Yesterday I went out for an hour during lunch and had to wait 20 minutes in the 4 runner line to get on. The gondola was 10 to 15 minutes, the mountain triple had no line. I've never seen lines like this mid week at Stowe. This photo was on Tuesday around 11.30 am, where I'm standing in the picture was 10 minutes or so into my wait.....
> View attachment 51239


Many schools in NY have vacation week this week


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## HowieT2 (Mar 31, 2021)

fingers crossed but nws forecast for lincoln peak is 5-8" at 3k.  snow-forecast.com is 7".


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## dblskifanatic (Mar 31, 2021)

Well it appears like there will be quite a bit of wet weather before switching over to snow.  When it does cutover it will be heavy wet snow and temps will continue to drop.  From the looks of things it looks like a 3-6 inch event for northern VT,  I got info from Accuweather, Weather Channel, and Windy.com and they all seem to match up pretty well.  I know some of you use better analysis tools but these have been pretty accurate for me this year.

Weather alert:

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY... 

WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. 
WHERE...Portions of central, northeast and northwest Vermont and northern New York. 
WHEN...From 2 AM Thursday to 2 AM EDT Friday.
IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.


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## KustyTheKlown (Mar 31, 2021)

dblskifanatic said:


> Well it appears like there will be quite a bit of wet weather before switching over to snow.  When it does cutover it will be heavy wet snow and temps will continue to drop.  From the looks of things it looks like a 3-6 inch event for northern VT,  I got info from Accuweather, Weather Channel, and Windy.com and they all seem to match up pretty well.  I know some of you use better analysis tools but these have been pretty accurate for me this year.
> 
> Weather alert:
> 
> ...



these arent mountain point forecasts. this is mainly talking about valleys/cities/towns. jay will get 10" at elevation.


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## HowieT2 (Mar 31, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> these arent mountain point forecasts. this is mainly talking about valleys/cities/towns. jay will get 10" at elevation.


correct.


			Enhanced Mountain Point Forecasts


----------



## Zand (Mar 31, 2021)

Models have been bumping east. Northern NH and Western ME might get in on a few inches. Might get the cold air to crash in a couple hours earlier as well. Hopefully the higher elevations can maximize snow time during the precip window.


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## kingslug (Mar 31, 2021)

Stowe site is very optimistic 10 to 15 inches...I like that LOL


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## 2Planker (Mar 31, 2021)

kingslug said:


> Stowe site is very optimistic 10 to 15 inches...I like that LOL


They're smokin' some of that NE Kingdom product....

2"-3" maybe after a ton of rain


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## kendo (Mar 31, 2021)

Tonyr said:


> I've been up here since the weekend. Conditions at Magic, Mt. Ellen, and Stowe the last 2 days have not been great. I'm hoping this storm is a good one as well!
> 
> On another note I'm shocked at how large the crowds are during the week. Yesterday I went out for an hour during lunch and had to wait 20 minutes in the 4 runner line to get on. The gondola was 10 to 15 minutes, the mountain triple had no line. I've never seen lines like this mid week at Stowe. This photo was on Tuesday around 11.30 am, where I'm standing in the picture was 10 minutes or so into my wait.....



Not surprised at yesterday's 11:30am FourRunner line.  Spruce Lodge was empty at 11:30am (CV restricted access), Sunny Spruce and Meadows were both nearly empty with thin cover on the remaining open trails, Sensation was closed to racing only - so you're left with everyone on Mansfield skiing thru lunch and using the FourRunner, Mtn Triple and Gondola.

Skied today from 8-12 on creamy mashed potatoes with some gravy spots showing thru!     FourRunner was <5mins and Mtn Triple was ski on.  

Hoping for a fast drop in temp tonight. . . I'm forecasting 4-6" at the base with 8-12" up top!


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## kingslug (Mar 31, 2021)

I'm forecasting ...something will fall from the sky at some point and change into something else..at some point.


----------



## Zand (Mar 31, 2021)

NWS forecast for Mansfield is 8-16"

No reason Jay won't beat them by a couple inches.


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## dblskifanatic (Mar 31, 2021)

Looks like Northeastern NY will do well.  North of 89 in VT to the Canadian border a little lighter but the place to be in VT,  As snow forecast maps become more defined.


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## kingslug (Mar 31, 2021)

Zand said:


> NWS forecast for Mansfield is 8-16"
> 
> No reason Jay won't beat them by a couple inches.


sold!


----------



## KustyTheKlown (Mar 31, 2021)

2Planker said:


> They're smokin' some of that NE Kingdom product....
> 
> 2"-3" maybe after a ton of rain



pretty negative take that doesnt even really jive with the latest models.

top of stowe:


----------



## ThatGuy (Mar 31, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> pretty negative take that doesnt even really jive with the latest models.
> 
> top of stowe:
> 
> View attachment 51244


NoVT is definitely going to get some decent snow. At this point I’m more worried about the crowd thats going to be at Jay storm chasing. Debating the 1hr45 to Whiteface or the 3hr30 to Jay.


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## Zand (Mar 31, 2021)

ThatGuy said:


> NoVT is definitely going to get some decent snow. At this point I’m more worried about the crowd thats going to be at Jay storm chasing. Debating the 1hr45 to Whiteface or the 3hr30 to Jay.


I can't picture Jay being that busy, especially with no Canadians. Probably skied 40 days there in college including powder days and weekends (and with Canadians) and never waited for Jet or Bonnie and only minimal waits for the Freezer. I can't ride the Tram solo this year so that can have a 3 hour line for all I care. 

I think it's just too far from most people, especially if Stowe gets just as much snow. But I could be very wrong, who knows.


----------



## KustyTheKlown (Mar 31, 2021)

i definitely experienced waits on the bonnie this year, especially when the flyer is down, which is a very possible for Friday.

agreed tho that a stowe powder day gobbles up the epic hordes. and it is still a Friday. my company closes for good Friday, and maybe its a bank/govt holiday? but most people need to work Friday...

a lot of people have also mentally turned the page. its April and its been warm and raining. and thankfully this snow doesn't touch the i-95 corridor and people's yards. if you aren't tapped into the ski-web, you don't even know a significant storm is coming.

hopes.


----------



## ThatGuy (Mar 31, 2021)

Hope is all we have after every storm in March was a bust lol. Guess I’ll make my decision tomorrow.


----------



## Tonyr (Mar 31, 2021)

kendo said:


> Not surprised at yesterday's 11:30am FourRunner line.  Spruce Lodge was empty at 11:30am (CV restricted access), Sunny Spruce and Meadows were both nearly empty with thin cover on the remaining open trails, Sensation was closed to racing only - so you're left with everyone on Mansfield skiing thru lunch and using the FourRunner, Mtn Triple and Gondola.
> 
> Skied today from 8-12 on creamy mashed potatoes with some gravy spots showing thru!     FourRunner was <5mins and Mtn Triple was ski on.
> 
> Hoping for a fast drop in temp tonight. . . I'm forecasting 4-6" at the base with 8-12" up top!



Yes today was a much different story. No waits anywhere other than the gondola.


----------



## kingslug (Mar 31, 2021)

Stoked!


----------



## dblskifanatic (Mar 31, 2021)

Zand said:


> I can't picture Jay being that busy, especially with no Canadians. Probably skied 40 days there in college including powder days and weekends (and with Canadians) and never waited for Jet or Bonnie and only minimal waits for the Freezer. I can't ride the Tram solo this year so that can have a 3 hour line for all I care.
> 
> I think it's just too far from most people, especially if Stowe gets just as much snow. But I could be very wrong, who knows.



Never waited for Jet?!  I lived in that area and it was my home mountain and Jet was always popular and Since they have changed Stateside I have skated to it only to turn around.  Good stuff there!


----------



## tumbler (Mar 31, 2021)

Just don't get your hopes up for a pow day.  Some of the hardest skiing I have done is in late March/April snow glop.  Better to let others ski it in sometimes.


----------



## Smellytele (Mar 31, 2021)

dblskifanatic said:


> Never waited for Jet?!  I lived in that area and it was my home mountain and Jet was always popular and Since they have changed Stateside I have skated to it only to turn around.  Good stuff there!


Agree I have waited in very long lines at the Jet. Longer than the yankee freezer.


----------



## Zand (Mar 31, 2021)

dblskifanatic said:


> Never waited for Jet?!  I lived in that area and it was my home mountain and Jet was always popular and Since they have changed Stateside I have skated to it only to turn around.  Good stuff there!


My college days were back in the old stinky lodge days so I'm guessing many more people end up on that side with the new lodge and hotel now. But Jet used to almost be a hideaway for me if the main base got busy. Always skied it midday.


----------



## Zand (Mar 31, 2021)

tumbler said:


> Just don't get your hopes up for a pow day.  Some of the hardest skiing I have done is in late March/April snow glop.  Better to let others ski it in sometimes.


Yeah I'm almost glad I can't get up till Sunday. Supposed to stay cool behind the storm so everything should be skied in but not melted away yet.

Plus if the storm ends up being a total flop I can just bag the trip.


----------



## kingslug (Mar 31, 2021)

you know,,with all this talk about snow and beer..y'all should be waxing your skis..and drinking a beer.
Never had this one Relic brewery..pretty tasty...


----------



## kingslug (Mar 31, 2021)

tumbler said:


> Just don't get your hopes up for a pow day.  Some of the hardest skiing I have done is in late March/April snow glop.  Better to let others ski it in sometimes.


I will....ski it in that is. Fat skis help.


----------



## ss20 (Mar 31, 2021)

Not concerned about heavy snow, save for the start.  Temps are supposed to dip into the low 20s and teens Thursday into Thursday night.

I'm also not concerned about horrific crowds Friday.  I have my indy days for jay and I'm probably the only person on this coast that has saved them up to this point lol.  I'm expecting all locals.  

Saturday I'll be at Sugarbush and that's where I'm a bit concerned about crowding.  6" of new snow and perfect spring weather but we're all packed onto 5 lifts at lincoln peak with Ellen and MRG closed.


----------



## Zand (Mar 31, 2021)

kingslug said:


> I will....ski it in that is. Fat skis help.


This storm kind of reminds me of April 2012. That was the year with the 80 degree March that killed off everyone (including Jay) and up to that point, the only powder day I had that year was Halloween at Killington. I remember sitting in class at LSC and it was 50 and raining in mid April but I checked Jays report out of habit and they were reporting 18". I got up and walked out of class and started driving. It was rain all the way to the Stateside parking lot but sure enough it was deep dense pow on the mountain. Incredibly dense, in fact. I was straightlining trails like Powerline and River Quai where you're usually dodging boulders, but this snow was sticking to everything. Impossible to turn...glades were full of snow but were terrifying to actually ski.

3 days later after the snow drained and got skied in, it was some of the best conditions I've ever skied. And all this was after a torch March had everyone shutting down.

This storm has less moisture than that one did but just has a similar feeling. Like the good part of the season is over but suddenly mother nature is going to pull one out of her ass to save the season for another week or two.

At this point I think 10" is a fair expectation. Do a snow dance tonight for the ol' Jay Cloud.


----------



## Smellytele (Mar 31, 2021)

ss20 said:


> Not concerned about heavy snow, save for the start.  Temps are supposed to dip into the low 20s and teens Thursday into Thursday night.
> 
> I'm also not concerned about horrific crowds Friday.  I have my indy days for jay and I'm probably the only person on this coast that has saved them up to this point lol.  I'm expecting all locals.
> 
> Saturday I'll be at Sugarbush and that's where I'm a bit concerned about crowding.  6" of new snow and perfect spring weather but we're all packed onto 5 lifts at lincoln peak with Ellen and MRG closed.


Going Saturday to use my second Jay indy pass and my buddy is using his first.


----------



## drjeff (Mar 31, 2021)

This storm on radar is looking more and more like a dud for ski country, as the slug of moisture that was integral to getting some decent snow totals now appears to look like it's going way further South and East than the models thought....


----------



## ss20 (Mar 31, 2021)

So some good news and bad news...bad news is dry slot tonight after this initial round of showers means there probably won't be much on the ground come tomorrow.  Good news is the cold air is coming in faster than previously anticipated, and that the wrap-around effect looks like it'll be greater Friday.

As of 8:10 Mt. Ellen summit temp per SB website was 45 degrees.  The NOAA mountain point forecast for 8pm was 47 degrees, so we're running a couple degrees cooler which is good.


----------



## Zand (Mar 31, 2021)

The precip heading to VT and NY is over Ohio. The first heavy precip was modeled to be off the NJ shore.

If anything, the slow developing precip on the wave heading north is a good thing. Less hours of rain before the change.


----------



## ss20 (Mar 31, 2021)

Zand said:


> The precip heading to VT and NY is over Ohio. The first heavy precip was modeled to be off the NJ shore.
> 
> If anything, the slow developing precip on the wave heading north is a good thing. Less hours of rain before the change.



Correct, our snow is in Ohio.  But @drjeff is kinda correct in that this thing shifted East huuuuugely and snow forecasts are down a bit from what they were at the start of the day.  Jay, which was on the Eastern fringe of big totals is now gonna be the western side, lol.  Northern NH mountains probably gonna end up doing quite well.  

Whiteface/Gore skiers should be sweating bullet lol.  NOAA Albany has a good write-up on what's happening....keep in mind they do not forecast for VT, that is done by Burlington, which is holding its forecast steady as of the latest write-up.


> A slight but notable shift to a less amplified system
> is evident in the majority of the 12Z guidance, leading overall
> weaker lift. This has resulted in drier model consensus over
> areas where the winter headlines are in effect, and it is
> ...


----------



## Zand (Mar 31, 2021)

I hadn't read this afternoon's BTV discussion, but they're surprisingly bullish.



> Overall little change made from the previous forecast with
> models remaining in fairly good agreement. Following the trends
> of the NAM3/HRRR/HRDPS and this afternoons surface and radar
> analyses, the most notable change is that the cold front
> ...


----------



## WWF-VT (Mar 31, 2021)

This thread is comedy with people getting all jacked up about a "possible" 4-8" of snow at elevation in Northern VT on April 1st.


----------



## ss20 (Mar 31, 2021)

WWF-VT said:


> This thread is comedy with people getting all jacked up about a "possible" 4-8" of snow at elevation in Northern VT on April 1st.



That's 4"-8" more than most places got all March!


----------



## MG Skier (Mar 31, 2021)

I'll be arriving at Jay on Friday, Skiing Saturday and Sunday. 
I'll take whatever I can get new snow wise! 
Zand, I can't remember if I was there for that storm or not in 2012...but it rings a bell!


----------



## 180 (Mar 31, 2021)

i am more concerned that Saturday and Sunday are sunny and warm!


----------



## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

Now..is it worth driving 5 hours...hmmm...


----------



## Zand (Apr 1, 2021)

4" at Jay so far. Big band about to swing through and then moist flow should keep snow in the area through tomorrow morning.


----------



## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

Snowing at SB on the webcam=good


----------



## ss20 (Apr 1, 2021)

Probably 4"-6" down at jay as of 10:30am.  Ropes dropping left and right.  Woods are fantastic, more base than I'd of thought.

Get here tomorrow if you can!!


----------



## KustyTheKlown (Apr 1, 2021)

ss20 said:


> Probably 4"-6" down at jay as of 10:30am.  Ropes dropping left and right.  Woods are fantastic, more base than I'd of thought.
> 
> Get here tomorrow if you can!!




lucky you getting it today! and no wind issues? skiology dork was pretty bullish on wind holds today.

cant wait for tomorrow. cannot focus. prob saying fuck it at like 3 pm and getting on the road. 

its not a ton of snow but after the past month i am desperate for some soft skiing.


----------



## Zand (Apr 1, 2021)

I know I'll be missing the powder but hopeful the lower 30s the next 2 days keeps the nice new base in place and all the woods skiable!


----------



## ss20 (Apr 1, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> lucky you getting it today! and no wind issues? skiology dork was pretty bullish on wind holds today.
> 
> cant wait for tomorrow. cannot focus. prob saying fuck it at like 3 pm and getting on the road.
> 
> its not a ton of snow but after the past month i am desperate for some soft skiing.



Zero wind.  I'll ski it in for you!  Snow is not very wet, drier than I would've thought.  

I'll let you know how the groomers are, that's your speed right? Hahah


----------



## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

Hope Stowe doesn't groom the hell out of it tonight.


----------



## MG Skier (Apr 1, 2021)

It is killing me that I can't head up this afternoon to Jay. 
Oh well, at least I am going...!


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## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

SB cam shows snowing hard ...and empty...


----------



## Zand (Apr 1, 2021)

kingslug said:


> SB cam shows snowing hard ...and empty...


Stowe snowstake cam is at 3" since this morning. They cleared 2" around 6 or 7am. Anyone know what elevation that stake is at?


----------



## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

Mt. Mansfield snow depth has been recorded continuously at a stake 3900 feet on the mountain since 1954.
Not sure if the cam is showing current. Their cam system sux pretty much...


----------



## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

kingslug said:


> Mt. Mansfield snow depth has been recorded continuously at a stake 3900 feet on the mountain since 1954.
> Not sure if the cam is showing current. Their cam system sux pretty much...


Clock shows up to 10:30 now.


----------



## KustyTheKlown (Apr 1, 2021)

kingslug said:


> Mt. Mansfield snow depth has been recorded continuously at a stake 3900 feet on the mountain since 1954.
> Not sure if the cam is showing current. Their cam system sux pretty much...



im not sure that is the same as the resort snowstake. the 3900 feet is higher than stowe's terrain and is probably a part of a mount mansfield weather station, not the resort's stake. could be wrong but that's my suspicion. if i had to guess, the stake is near the gondola top building.


----------



## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

Probably right...hoping it snows into tomorrow. 
Glad I didn't take the snow tires off yet..I always wait for middle of April.


----------



## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

Mount Mansfield Snow Depth
					

Snow depth, forecast, temperature, and wind at the fabled stake on top of Mount Mansfield.




					matthewparrilla.com
				



going to be cold................


----------



## kendo (Apr 1, 2021)

Stowe skiing great.   Dryer than expected. Mild wind.  6-8" up top  (Octagon deck was bare yesterday).




Still snowing steady.  ND woods in play.  FourRunners 5mins.  Get here early tomorrow...


----------



## kendo (Apr 1, 2021)

Zand said:


> Stowe snowstake cam is at 3" since this morning. They cleared 2" around 6 or 7am. Anyone know what elevation that stake is at?


Top of the double.  In woods by access to Lord.


----------



## 2Planker (Apr 1, 2021)

Warmer in WMV than Boston right now.

* "Rainin' harder than a Cow Peein' on a Flat Rock"*


----------



## ss20 (Apr 1, 2021)

Wind is picking up at jay but non issue so far.  Pretty solid 5-7" it feels like with some deeper pockets hidden in there.  Most glades are open.  Minimal crowds...every other chair has people on it on the flyer, less on jet and bonnie.


----------



## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

kendo said:


> Stowe skiing great.   Dryer than expected. Mild wind.  6-8" up top  (Octagon deck was bare yesterday). Still snowing steady.  ND woods in play.  FourRunners 5mins.  Get here early tomorrow...


Leaving around 3 ish tomorrow morning


----------



## ThatGuy (Apr 1, 2021)

kingslug said:


> Leaving around 3 ish tomorrow morning


My girlfriend won’t be happy when I wake up at 5am to go to Jay.


----------



## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

Just be...real...quiet...


----------



## cdskier (Apr 1, 2021)

kingslug said:


> SB cam shows snowing hard ...and empty...


We picked up maybe 1-2 at the base and 2-3 up top. Couple drifts might be deeper, but another under-whelming storm here unless we pick up more (right now seems to have almost stopped). The snow on the bottom half was pretty wet and sticky. Up top was much drier. Lot of lift delays here today. Opening time mid-week is 10AM. Finally had Valley House open at 10:15. HG opened maybe around 11 (although now is on wind hold). GH opened somewhere in the 10:30-10:45 range. North Lynx opened shortly after 12. And Super Bravo finally opened ~12:30.

Snow didn't really bond too well with the frozen layer underneath. Quite solid underneath (but edgeable).


----------



## slatham (Apr 1, 2021)

Another storm that didn't really materialize, though this one was way more of a tease. Seems like Jay the winner though the N Maine areas have a shot too.


----------



## Zand (Apr 1, 2021)

slatham said:


> Another storm that didn't really materialize, though this one was way more of a tease. Seems like Jay the winner though the N Maine areas have a shot too.


The only place this storm busted was northern NY (which was starting to become apparent yesterday when the models started shifting east). From the beginning this was only really a Jay and Mansfield event, with maybe a few inches on the back end for the peaks further south.

Not to mention there is still 8-12 more hours of accumulating snow left for northern Greens. Rates will slow down but my 10" prediction at Jay should materialize.


----------



## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

All I  hope is that Stowe/Vail doesn't groom the shit out of it.


----------



## KustyTheKlown (Apr 1, 2021)

yup, was called for adirondacks and vermont north of 89. shifted east. northern nh got some. northern Maine might. stowe to jay seems to be right on target. my only question now is do i splurge for a smuggs ticket on Saturday instead of driving down to sugarbush where it is free. if i don't opt to spend at smuggs, this will be the first year in nearly a decade that i haven't gotten one day at smuggs.


----------



## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

Looks like Smuggs will get more snow than SB..I imagine it already has.


----------



## KustyTheKlown (Apr 1, 2021)

it definitely will. its a do i want to spend money and drive in the wrong direction question, not a conditions question. also a consideration of slow ass double chairs with covid sending them up as single chairs.


----------



## cdskier (Apr 1, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> lucky you getting it today! and no wind issues? skiology dork was pretty bullish on wind holds today.



Did you see VT Ski and Ride's April fools article today? They definitely took a swipe at him in it... I thought it was hilarious and think you'd probably appreciate it too.









						NWS Announces New Ski Area Forecasting Program, VT Observatory – VT SKI + RIDE
					

APRIL 1- Burlington, VT: The National Weather Service announced today that it will be launching a new weather forecasting pilot




					vtskiandride.com


----------



## Zand (Apr 1, 2021)

Smuggs reported 8" at noon which is...questionable? Haven't seen anything close to that yet. But if it's legit then good for them.


----------



## KustyTheKlown (Apr 1, 2021)

cdskier said:


> Did you see VT Ski and Ride's April fools article today? They definitely took a swipe at him in it... I thought it was hilarious and think you'd probably appreciate it too.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



lol i started reading that this morning, got to 'leather shoe wearing office workers in a Denver suburb' and realized what the date was, and then stopped reading lol.

just finished, thanks for point that out. that group grinds my gears but i do find the weather posts to be useful. 

"“We hope this new forecasting project will give skiers and riders real-time intel as to the actual conditions versus getting their beta from, say, a corporate resort reporter,  a Facebook group, or some weather hobbyist sitting in his basement in Albany reading “Meteorology for Dummies,” said Graupel."


----------



## ThatGuy (Apr 1, 2021)

cdskier said:


> Did you see VT Ski and Ride's April fools article today? They definitely took a swipe at him in it... I thought it was hilarious and think you'd probably appreciate it too.


This was the highlight for me.

Ebenezer Crankshaft, 87 and a life-long dairy farmer from the Northeast Kingdom, is one. “Ya, I don’t have much time for them fancy phrases like ‘whorographic lift’ or ‘bimbogenesis,’ Crankshaft said. “ I just know that when my gals lay down in their stalls at night, the next day my fields are gonna be whiter than a town meeting in East Corinth.”


----------



## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

Yeah..after Smuggs would be a long drive..but its all ending soon. I would wait and see what SB ends up with. If I had a pass I would do that as it cuts 45 minutes from the drive back..


----------



## KustyTheKlown (Apr 1, 2021)

yea. i am in a stowe hotel tonight and Friday night. then a rutland hotel Saturday night. the drive from northern vermont is too much on a Sunday, so i like to ski K or south on the day i drive home. so it would be smuggs to rutland on Saturday after skiing. stowe hotel > sugarbush > rutland all makes lots more directional sense. also ~$90 i don't need to spend. and I'm spending face value minus 25% at jay (3rd indy day). we'll see.


----------



## Zand (Apr 1, 2021)

“And we’ll find out if that ‘Jay Cloud’ is real or just bong vapor.”


----------



## crank (Apr 1, 2021)

The Jay cloud is real... but also real unreliable.


----------



## cdskier (Apr 1, 2021)

kingslug said:


> Yeah..after Smuggs would be a long drive..but its all ending soon. I would wait and see what SB ends up with. If I had a pass I would do that as it cuts 45 minutes from the drive back..


I don't think we'll end up with anything near what Smuggs gets...


----------



## slatham (Apr 1, 2021)

Zand said:


> The only place this storm busted was northern NY (which was starting to become apparent yesterday when the models started shifting east). From the beginning this was only really a Jay and Mansfield event, with maybe a few inches on the back end for the peaks further south.
> 
> Not to mention there is still 8-12 more hours of accumulating snow left for northern Greens. Rates will slow down but my 10" prediction at Jay should materialize.



Based on yesterday afternoon (<24 hours prior to storm) NWS snow maps there were a lot of busts.


----------



## 2Planker (Apr 1, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> yup, was called for adirondacks and vermont north of 89. shifted east. northern nh got some. northern Maine might. stowe to jay seems to be right on target. my only question now is do i splurge for a smuggs ticket on Saturday instead of driving down to sugarbush where it is free. if i don't opt to spend at smuggs, this will be the first year in nearly a decade that i haven't gotten one day at smuggs.


Nothing promising to report from NH.  Even raining on top of the Cat @ 43 & Mt Wash is in an inverted Fog cloud


----------



## ss20 (Apr 1, 2021)

Skied 9-3:30.  I'm cooked.  Can it be tomorrow already?  Still snowing at a good clip as of 4pm.  I had high expectations and they were exceeded.  It is obviously very slick under the new snow fyi, but with 8"ish inches of fresh there's plenty of pockets of packed powder and powder to ski in.


----------



## Tonyr (Apr 1, 2021)

Stowe was awesome, I was in the trees all day today. I can't wait to get back out there tomorrow, it should be another good one!


----------



## kendo (Apr 1, 2021)

I need a beer!  Still snowing steady at Stowe.  Hard to judge totals as the wind picked up this afternoon.  Smuggs should be getting the same.  

Expect Stowe to groom out the usual blues overnight along with Nosedive and maybe upper Hayride.  Liftline is filled back in but you'll want to stay skiers left above the Midway pump house . . . center and right have only what's fallen covering bare ground from yesterday.    Expect everything inbounds to get skied off but the trees are in play.   (^great pics Tonyr)


----------



## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

Sounds good. Maybe the 117's will be too  much..bringing the 95"s as well. Better in the trees.


----------



## dblskifanatic (Apr 1, 2021)

Lots of great pics!  Must say I am a little jealous!


----------



## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

*2:30PM Update-* Both the Lookout Snow Cam Plot and the High Road Snow Plot have recorded 5" of new snowfall so far from this storm (great consistency between the two sheltered sites). Due to gusty winds and drifting, we found varying amounts of new snow on the trails today. Steady light snow continues and we may see another couple of inches overnight.


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## ss20 (Apr 1, 2021)

kingslug said:


> Sounds good. Maybe the 117's will be too  much..bringing the 95"s as well. Better in the trees.



Bring whatever you like the least lol.  I wouldn't call things thin, but in some spots it's 10" on top of a base and other spots it's 5" on top of literally nothing.  And no way to tell til you're on it of course hahaha.


----------



## Tonyr (Apr 1, 2021)

kendo said:


> I need a beer!  Still snowing steady at Stowe.  Hard to judge totals as the wind picked up this afternoon.  Smuggs should be getting the same.
> 
> Expect Stowe to groom out the usual blues overnight along with Nosedive and maybe upper Hayride.  Liftline is filled back in but you'll want to stay skiers left above the Midway pump house . . . center and right have only what's fallen covering bare ground from yesterday.    Expect everything inbounds to get skied off but the trees are in play.   (^great pics Tonyr)


Thanks!

Today I skied the Nosedive Glades, Christy Glades, Tres Amigos Glades then sidecountry I skied the Goat, Starr, and Centerline woods, Partridge, and finished the day off skiing Pipeline. What a nasty run that one is! This photo was from one of the drop ins near the top of the Pipeline run, it's one of the toughest trails I've skied especially with the light coverage up there today.  I had the only tracks on this one!..........


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## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

Since I recently started noodling around in the woods..whats a good glade to float around in at Stowe..I've done the lower ones and a little of the nosedive.


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## Smellytele (Apr 1, 2021)

kingslug said:


> Since I recently started noodling around in the woods..whats a good glade to float around in at Stowe..I've done the lower ones and a little of the nosedive.


now or during prime season?


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## kingslug (Apr 1, 2021)

now. tomorrow.


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## Tonyr (Apr 1, 2021)

kingslug said:


> now. tomorrow.


Try the Nosedive Glades, they are still in good shape and really fun. The thing about Stowe though is that the best glades there are all pretty much in the sidecountry and don't show up on the trail map.


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## drjeff (Apr 1, 2021)

Breaking out the powder skis tomorrow after finding this massive amount on my back deck at Mount Snow this evening!! Lol!!!


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## Tonyr (Apr 2, 2021)

That is a photo from from my terrace at 7.30 am this morning at Stowe, it's still snowing lightly here. It's going to be another great day out there!


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## Zand (Apr 2, 2021)

Jay's report says 12".


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## NYDB (Apr 2, 2021)

What I've learned from this thread is you have a 'deck' at Mt. Snow, but if you are at Steaux its called a terrace.


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## KustyTheKlown (Apr 2, 2021)

12” in 48 at Jay. Coffee and cannabis in the stateside lot. Today’s gonna be rad


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## NYDB (Apr 2, 2021)

Nice.  Hippie Speedball.  I am definitely jealous here sitting in the office.  

Looks like the Bush is getting some lake effect today.


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## ThatGuy (Apr 2, 2021)

Got pulled over by border patrol, just arrived at Jay.


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## Smellytele (Apr 2, 2021)

ThatGuy said:


> Got pulled over by border patrol, just arrived at Jay.


pulled over for what?


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## tumbler (Apr 2, 2021)

Good thing you weren't with Kusty...


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## dblskifanatic (Apr 2, 2021)

Border Patrol does not have local authority for anything.  They must have thought that some Canadians were being smuggled in.


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## ThatGuy (Apr 2, 2021)

Smellytele said:


> pulled over for what?


Just a headlight out, nothing crazy. Gave it a whack and it went back on so thankfully no ticket.


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## ThatGuy (Apr 2, 2021)

dblskifanatic said:


> Border Patrol does not have local authority for anything.  They must have thought that some Canadians were being smuggled in.


Good to know.


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## KustyTheKlown (Apr 2, 2021)

Yerrrrrrrp


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## Zand (Apr 2, 2021)

Any chance stuff like Everglade and Deliverance come off the closed report?


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## KustyTheKlown (Apr 2, 2021)

not officially but it’s all skiable. Ive been lapping beaver but I just sampled the unmarked glade next to jfk, and it was fine. plus the poach marks into everglade. I’m going there now


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 2, 2021)

Wow, I've paid absolutely no attention to conditions whatsoever given we cant travel, but if that's what Vermont looks like after a decent snow, is ski season almost done up there or are the trails fine & it's just the woods that were getting thin?


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## ThatGuy (Apr 2, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> not officially but it’s all skiable. Ive been lapping beaver but I just sampled the unmarked glade next to jfk, and it was fine. plus the poach marks into everglade. I’m going there now


I been lapping North Glade and its prime as well. Line for flyer getting long.


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## ThatGuy (Apr 2, 2021)




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## ss20 (Apr 2, 2021)

ThatGuy said:


> I been lapping North Glade and its prime as well. Line for flyer getting long.



Shhhhhh.  Nope it's terrible.  

Lines still 10-15 minute waits on the flyer?  Jet wait is 2-5 minutes.


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## Cornhead (Apr 2, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> 12” in 48 at Jay. Coffee and cannabis in the stateside lot. Today’s gonna be rad


Ha, that's what I used to call morning break at my brother's house around the corner from work, only it was cannabis and coffee. Thanks for the pics guys, looks awesome, took off yesterday to hit Greek, but it was nothing like that, 3" of very heavy snow atop the groomers. Skied great, my buddy even hit the zero base glades on his rock skis. Kudos


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## ThatGuy (Apr 2, 2021)

ss20 said:


> Shhhhhh.  Nope it's terrible.
> 
> Lines still 10-15 minute waits on the flyer?  Jet wait is 2-5 minutes.


Yeah its getting longer Im coming to Stateside now if you see someone blue jacket, blue backpack and white pants give a yell if you want to ski.


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## KustyTheKlown (Apr 2, 2021)

ss20 said:


> Shhhhhh.  Nope it's terrible.
> 
> Lines still 10-15 minute waits on the flyer?  Jet wait is 2-5 minutes.


No way, haven’t waited longer than 5. Looks longer than it is


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## KustyTheKlown (Apr 2, 2021)

BenedictGomez said:


> Wow, I've paid absolutely no attention to conditions whatsoever given we cant travel, but if that's what Vermont looks like after a decent snow, is ski season almost done up there or are the trails fine & it's just the woods that were getting thin?


North of 89 south of 89 yuuuuge difference


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## ThatGuy (Apr 2, 2021)

@KustyTheKlown did you poach jfk im looking at it now.


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## ss20 (Apr 2, 2021)

ThatGuy said:


> @KustyTheKlown did you poach jfk im looking at it now.


That's been open since yesterday


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## ThatGuy (Apr 2, 2021)

ss20 said:


> That's been open since yesterday


Is everyglade the one roped off?


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## KustyTheKlown (Apr 2, 2021)

Jfk is open. I poached everglade. Is only closed Bc main entrance is pipes and rocks, and you’ll encounter a bit of open water that is easily avoided


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## ThatGuy (Apr 2, 2021)

Just rode the lift with a smuggs instructor he said its toast there even after the snow.


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## Tonyr (Apr 2, 2021)

NY DirtBag said:


> What I've learned from this thread is you have a 'deck' at Mt. Snow, but if you are at Steaux its called a terrace.



A deck is large, a terrace is small.....what I have is small!!!


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## Tonyr (Apr 2, 2021)

Stowe was incredible again today. Felt like mid February conditions in April.....


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## Edd (Apr 2, 2021)

Tonyr said:


> Stowe was incredible again today. Felt like mid February conditions in April.....
> View attachment 51273View attachment 51274View attachment 51275View attachment 51276


Fahk, I am jealous.


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## dblskifanatic (Apr 2, 2021)

Hate midweek storms!


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## kingslug (Apr 2, 2021)

Wish i knew these glades better..didnt see anyone going in the woods..jumped in christina glade..found..stuff...
Snowed all day..hit everything that was open but i guess the woods held the best stuff..
Maybe tomorrow ill try nosedive woods..nosedive was a slide at the top but had good snow once on it..liftline closed with monster icebergs everywhere..but they could groom it out.
Gondi line looooong..good snow though.
Lasted till 3...got up at 3..so thats legit..
Tired slug...


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## kingslug (Apr 2, 2021)

Christina glades and schnozz dive..its like february here..but after a rain then snow storm..


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## kingslug (Apr 2, 2021)

Lets see how this goes down


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## KustyTheKlown (Apr 2, 2021)

some dude checking into the hotel in stowe just told the desk clerk he waited on a 90 minute line for the gondola 

bqahahahahahahahhahaha


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## kingslug (Apr 2, 2021)

90...that seems a bit...looong..i waited 25 minutes just to see why..everyone else was waiting..no idea..nothing special you couldnt get off a 10 minute wait for the quad...
Cant wait for next season when i have ikon for sb..


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## skiur (Apr 2, 2021)

The gondola is great if your looking to hike up to the top, if not for that i wouldn't wait 15 min for it let alone 90.


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## Zand (Apr 2, 2021)

So...worth driving up Sunday? They shouldn't lose too much tomorrow. Did it get really skied off today or still decent?


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## Smellytele (Apr 2, 2021)

skiur said:


> The gondola is great if your looking to hike up to the top, if not for that i wouldn't wait 15 min for it let alone 90.


Side country and the stream/brook whatever it is also chin clip can be fun.


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## ss20 (Apr 2, 2021)

Great day at Jay #2. I liked the first day better, constant refresh.  Today was awesome the first couple hours as there was 2-4" of pure fluff on top of the thicker stuff that fell yesterday.  With all the traffic tho things got scraped to nothing in a hurry.  My ROTD was actually UN which had huge bumps of fluff with slick troughs.  Skied nicely before noon.  Today was an A- while yesterday was an A...still nothing to complain about in April!

Off to Sugarbush, hoping for some nice spring bumps tomorrow in the sunshine.


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## KustyTheKlown (Apr 2, 2021)

i was skiing fresh snow tramside til about 1. found things wayyyyy less fluffy at the jet from 1-3. timbuktu was not fun, way too much shit poking thru. everythign tramside higher on the mountain skied dreamy. super grateful to squeeze a final powder day out of this season. i got a shit ton of runs too. about 30k vertical, almost every run thru the woods. 4 laps of beaver/andres, 3 laps of north glade, 2 laps of the glade skiers left of jfk, everglade, expo glade, timbuktu, kitz woods x2. just smashed the place to bits.


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## kingslug (Apr 2, 2021)

Zand said:


> So...worth driving up Sunday? They shouldn't lose too much tomorrow. Did it get really skied off today or still decent?


They wont lose anything by sunday..still cold up here..go for it


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## cdskier (Apr 2, 2021)

ss20 said:


> Off to Sugarbush, hoping for some nice spring bumps tomorrow in the sunshine.



I wouldn't hold my breath for that to happen. It is going to take quite a bit to soften most of them up. I'd love to be wrong though...


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## kingslug (Apr 2, 2021)

Still pretty cold tomorrow


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## kingslug (Apr 2, 2021)

Wont go above freezing till at least noon..sun would be nice ..at Stowe it rarely comes out


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## KustyTheKlown (Apr 2, 2021)

someone defaced the sign entering montgomery on 242. it was a very subtle defacing so it didnt look defaced. i almost turned around to take a pic.

the sign says 'smile, you're in montgomery - covered bridges, open hearts"

it now says "smile, you're in montgomery - covered wieners, open farts"

i thought that was just wonderful.


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## HowieT2 (Apr 2, 2021)

ss20 said:


> Great day at Jay #2. I liked the first day better, constant refresh.  Today was awesome the first couple hours as there was 2-4" of pure fluff on top of the thicker stuff that fell yesterday.  With all the traffic tho things got scraped to nothing in a hurry.  My ROTD was actually UN which had huge bumps of fluff with slick troughs.  Skied nicely before noon.  Today was an A- while yesterday was an A...still nothing to complain about in April!
> 
> Off to Sugarbush, hoping for some nice spring bumps tomorrow in the sunshine.


I skied lincolnpeak today.  I would not expect the bumps to soften tomorrow.  Maybe Sunday.  
great snow today on top of some real funky base.


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## kingslug (Apr 3, 2021)

8 deg out there..might make it to 20's by noon...


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## kendo (Apr 3, 2021)

^get it early KS.

Great week at Stowe wrapped up a cv shortened season for me.  Lots of vert skied each day.  No complaints and look forward to getting back to 40+ days in 21/22.


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## Tonyr (Apr 3, 2021)

My last day of skiing today this season and what a homerun Stowe has been since Wednesday. We were going to head up to Jay Peak today but the conditions here were so good the last 2 days we decided to stay put and Stowe again did not disappoint. The glades were very good this morning, the snow was getting a little heavy in there but it was still alot of fun. Lot's of untracked lines still to be had.

We came in around 1 pm when the snow started to get sticky which was fine by me as my legs and back are toast!  Until next season.....


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## KustyTheKlown (Apr 3, 2021)

the north of 89/south of 89 mason dixon is a real thing.

if anyone is wondering whether upper organgrinder has softened as of 2 PM, the answer is NO. but it will be glorious the next truly warm day.

yesterday was one of the best days of the season so I’m content. I also ate a little psilocybin this morning, expecting a fairly boring but sunny and bright day on the sugarbush slopes. good decision. had a sparkly morning.


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## KustyTheKlown (Apr 3, 2021)

Steins also no good very bad


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## cdskier (Apr 3, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> the north of 89/south of 89 mason dixon is a real thing.
> 
> if anyone is wondering whether upper organgrinder has softened as of 2 PM, the answer is NO. but it will be glorious the next truly warm day.


No surprise there. Still 20 degrees up top and OG isn't the right angle for direct sun exposure. Sunrise softened up nicely when I skied it around 12:30 as would be expected.


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## ss20 (Apr 3, 2021)

cdskier said:


> No surprise there. Still 20 degrees up top and OG isn't the right angle for direct sun exposure. Sunrise softened up nicely when I skied it around 12:30 as would be expected.


Sunrise and especially Birch beautiful bumps.  Bottom 500 feet of lower organgrinder soft bumps but lots of people.

Killington next up.


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## HowieT2 (Apr 3, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> Steins also no good very bad


Awful.  Knew it was going to be bad but skied it anyway.  Dumb.


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## Zand (Apr 3, 2021)

Having second thoughts about tomorrow. The best glades (Everglade, Staircase, Deliverance, Vertigo) as well as Canyonland and Valhalla are all closed. Leaves North Glade, Beaver Pond, Timbuktu, and Kitz/Hells as the only decent options plus some smaller options. Is that worth day tripping all the way to Jay? Think things will soften up enough to get good conditions on stuff like Jet and UN?


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## cdskier (Apr 3, 2021)

ss20 said:


> Sunrise and especially Birch beautiful bumps.  Bottom 500 feet of lower organgrinder soft bumps but lots of people.
> 
> Killington next up.



Yea...the bottom of Lower OG was quite nice as well.



HowieT2 said:


> Awful.  Knew it was going to be bad but skied it anyway.  Dumb.


I've learned from making that mistake far too often in the past!


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## KustyTheKlown (Apr 3, 2021)

lol ya i am a glutton for punishment, did upper organgrinder and steins back to back. woof. lower organgrinder was great. birdland was great. spring skiing is fun.


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## KustyTheKlown (Apr 3, 2021)

Zand said:


> Having second thoughts about tomorrow. The best glades (Everglade, Staircase, Deliverance, Vertigo) as well as Canyonland and Valhalla are all closed. Leaves North Glade, Beaver Pond, Timbuktu, and Kitz/Hells as the only decent options plus some smaller options. Is that worth day tripping all the way to Jay? Think things will soften up enough to get good conditions on stuff like Jet and UN?



canyonland was closed on friday but was widely skied and skiable. timbuktu sucked friday, tons of shit poking thru. beaver and andres and north skied great. kitz>hells skied pretty good. i found everglade to be totally skiable and on the good side - it was closed because the major entrance is impassable, and there is exposed water within - but its def skiable. this might be your last chance to ski any type of trees this season, and it should be a beautiful day tomorrow. i would go skiing. i am going skiing. but it wont be the powder days of thurs-fri.


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## Zand (Apr 3, 2021)

Yeah I know the powder ship sailed, just hoping driving 8.5 hrs roundtrip is worth it. Going to Utah in 9 days so I still have more season to look forward to. 

I miss having Jay 45 minutes away. Those were the days. But living in the NEK wasn't worth it.


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## Tonyr (Apr 3, 2021)

Zand said:


> Yeah I know the powder ship sailed, just hoping driving 8.5 hrs roundtrip is worth it. Going to Utah in 9 days so I still have more season to look forward to.
> 
> I miss having Jay 45 minutes away. Those were the days. But living in the NEK wasn't worth it.


I would be hesitant to drive 8.5 hours round trip to ski tomorrow especially since you have a western trip upcoming. The conditions should be more than solid for April but that is a crazy day for what will be above average conditions under normal circumstances. The best days are now behind us here in the east unless another storm comes in the very near future.


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## ss20 (Apr 3, 2021)

Zand said:


> Yeah I know the powder ship sailed, just hoping driving 8.5 hrs roundtrip is worth it. Going to Utah in 9 days so I still have more season to look forward to.
> 
> I miss having Jay 45 minutes away. Those were the days. But living in the NEK wasn't worth it.



I loved thursday.  Friday was almost as good but I can't rate it higher as the traffic killed the powder by the afternoon.  Normally not a big deal mid-season, but under the new snow there is one of two things-

Sheer ice
Rocks, stumps, branches, dirt

I don't think the skiing would be very good at the moment at Jay as all that powder has been pushed around and I highly doubt it'll soften up outside of anything in the direct sun.


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## ThatGuy (Apr 3, 2021)

Zand said:


> Yeah I know the powder ship sailed, just hoping driving 8.5 hrs roundtrip is worth it. Going to Utah in 9 days so I still have more season to look forward to.
> 
> I miss having Jay 45 minutes away. Those were the days. But living in the NEK wasn't worth it.


I’d say save your legs for Utah, Jay was getting really tracked out as ss20 stated. Definitely good skiing but not 8 1/2 hours of driving level.


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## Smellytele (Apr 3, 2021)

I was at Jay today skied canyon land, lower part of the staircase, north, beaver, andre’s, kits and they all skied fine but you needed to pay attention. Timbuktu was horrible.
Things did soften up. Skied 8:45 to 4. Lines around witching time 10:30-noon were 10-15 min at the jet and maybe 10 at the flyer. Flyer had another rush around 1:30.


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## kingslug (Apr 4, 2021)

Still one more good weekend at least..looks like it will be real spring skiing.


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## teejahiss (Jul 24, 2021)

KustyTheKlown said:


> lol i started reading that this morning, got to 'leather shoe by guardmyshoe wearing office workers in a Denver suburb' and realized what the date was, and then stopped reading lol.
> 
> just finished, thanks for point that out. that group grinds my gears but i do find the weather posts to be useful.
> 
> "“We hope this new forecasting project will give skiers and riders real-time intel as to the actual conditions versus getting their beta from, say, a corporate resort reporter,  a Facebook group, or some weather hobbyist sitting in his basement in Albany reading “Meteorology for Dummies,” said Graupel."


hahha, exactly.


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