# NOAA winter weather  forecast for 2013-2014



## ScottySkis (Nov 22, 2013)

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/us-winter-climate-outlook-2013-14

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=jbyTgOjkW6c

On November 21, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued its seasonal  outlook for December through February. Typically, the highlights for  winter revolve around the temperature outlook, but this year it appears  that persisting and potentially developing drought could be the bigger  story.
 Varying degrees of drought currently exist across large parts of the  western and central U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii, with abnormally dry  conditions across parts of the East. The outlook favors precipitation  below the 1981-2010 average in both the Southwest and Southeast, making  the persistence and development of drought likely in these regions.  Elsewhere, precipitation is favored to be above-average in the northern  Rockies, particularly over Montana and northern Wyoming and in Hawaii,  and below-average in the Alaskan panhandle.
 For any location, there is a finite chance that precipitation will be  below-, near-, or above-average. The maps show only the most likely  outcome, not the only possible one. The temperature outlook favors  warmer-than-average conditions in western Alaska, across parts of the  South, and in New England. Below-average temperatures are favored in the  Northern Plains and southeastern Alaska.
 Both maps have large swaths of the country labeled “EC” for “equal  chances,” which means there is no tilt in the odds towards either above-  or below-average temperature or precipitation. This year’s outlook has  proven to be quite challenging. We’re not seeing strong climate signals  and patterns that often give us clues as to what the season will bring.  Sea surface temperatures across the central Pacific have not been  consistently warm or cool since Spring 2012, and we expect this to  continue at least through next spring. This means that neither El Niño  nor La Niña is likely to influence the climate during the upcoming  winter.
 Without either El Niño or La Niña present, we often use recent  climate trends to get insight about what might arise. The past 15  winters have not been much different than average for all the winters  between 1981 and 2010. Across parts of the North, there has been a small  tendency for wetter conditions. Across parts of the South, the trend  has been for slightly less precipitation. For temperature, the trends  have been even less significant, with only some small areas being  slightly warmer-than-average. While you might expect trends to always be  up in a warming climate, the reality is that temperature trends are  often different for different regions during different seasons.
 Patterns that can strongly influence our winter weather, such as the  Arctic Oscillation, are just not predictable on time scales beyond a  week or two. These atmospheric patterns can change from week to week and have the potential to deliver cold, snowy weather throughout the season. We will continue to track quickly changing patterns as well as  evolving drought conditions. NOAA monitors and predicts the climate so  you can make climate-smart decisions. From the Climate


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## BenedictGomez (Nov 24, 2013)

A drunk monkey playing darts the last 5 years or so would have better success long-range forecasting than NOAA.  

It's almost comical how bad they've done.  I'd put more faith in Madam Cleo at this point than NOAA.


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## andrec10 (Nov 24, 2013)

Sounds like a Bunch of Monkeys F@cking a Football!


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## TropicTundR (Nov 27, 2013)

My NOAA interpretation:

Warmer areas above average in the south and cooler weather above average in the north.

Now depending on population density, where less people live, weather will be unusual depending on where you live, southwest will be dry and northeast will be cold and sometimes dry.


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## Abubob (Nov 27, 2013)

The more things change the more they stay the same.


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