# The Official "Ughh" Thread



## Zand (Jan 31, 2008)

This year is turning into a slightly colder copy of 2005-2006. Great late November and December into January, then a blowtorch with 1 storm mid January. At this rate we have another storm coming mid February and then nothing till April.

Right now we're looking at a mix for a best case scenario tomorrow and then temps back in the upper 40s to around 50 next week. 

04-05 seems like a century ago.


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## KingM (Jan 31, 2008)

I can't speak for Wachusett or Mt. Snow, but everything in Northern Vermont is still 100% open, even the all natural stuff at MRG. The skiing, believe it or not, is far, far better than what I've seen during crappy weather periods in the past. So, get in a car and drive north for a couple of hours. It's worth it.


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## Zand (Jan 31, 2008)

Unfortunately, due to my annual "plan way too many VT trips for March and none in Jan/Feb" stuff, I'm stuck around here right now. I know it's probably nice up there considering in March of '06 it hadn't snowed here in 5 weeks and then I went to Smuggs and skied glades all weekend.

Just promise me you guys will save it for another month and a half.


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## AMAC2233 (Jan 31, 2008)

It's just a shame that down here in Boston we've had about 40 inches of snow this year, and right now most of it is gone. Anything facing south is completely bare, and everything else averages between 0.5 inches and 3 inches in a good spot. In a few days, with the predicted near 50 temperatures, it should all be gone once again. Yeah, it has snowed a lot, but every time we've had a thaw immediately following. Personally, I don't think it has been a great season in terms of weather down in SNE, especially January. Now, February is not looking too good either, for all of NE. We should not regularly be getting NCP. Not in mid-winter. This is probably the third or fourth time I've made this post, but weather like this makes me quite angry. Now, if I could get up north every weekend, I'd be singing a different tune!


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## deadheadskier (Jan 31, 2008)

I think things are gonna be just fine.....maybe not everywhere up north.....but I don't ever recall conditions being bad in March in Northern VT.  They'll get their snow.  The Loaf will get their late season smattering to.

How people even pay the slightest attention to anything beyond 5 days is beyond me.  The last storm last week dropped 10 inches on Wildcat, no one had a clue about it until 3 days prior tops.  There's been plenty of fantom storms up in Northern Vt the past several weeks.

NO ONE sat here on Feb 1st and could've predicted the V-Day storm and other great ones to follow.  Next week's forecast is weak.  That's New England for you.  No need to hang your head low though.  I've got faith


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## danny p (Feb 1, 2008)

deadheadskier said:


> I think things are gonna be just fine.....maybe not everywhere up north.....but I don't ever recall conditions being bad in March in Northern VT.  They'll get their snow.  The Loaf will get their late season smattering to.
> 
> How people even pay the slightest attention to anything beyond 5 days is beyond me.  The last storm last week dropped 10 inches on Wildcat, no one had a clue about it until 3 days prior tops.  There's been plenty of fantom storms up in Northern Vt the past several weeks.
> 
> NO ONE sat here on Feb 1st and could've predicted the V-Day storm and other great ones to follow.  Next week's forecast is weak.  That's New England for you.  No need to hang your head low though.  I've got faith



good post.  voice of reason has spoken.


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## riverc0il (Feb 1, 2008)

AMAC2233 said:


> Personally, I don't think it has been a great season in terms of weather down in SNE, especially January. Now, February is not looking too good either, for all of NE. We should not regularly be getting NCP. Not in mid-winter.


SNE gets NCP all the time in the winter and two big NCP events in mid-winter is par for the course everywhere in New England. Weather outlook not being favorable right now seems to be a result of the La Nina pattern, but take a look at the Mansfield Stake. The Stake has been above average almost every day of the season going back to November 3rd, even taking into account the last rain/freeze event. This winter has been extremely generous considering an unfavorable La Nina pattern doing its best to ruin the party. As previously mentioned, Northern Vermont is 100% open right now due to three feet of new snow in the past two weeks. I know it is not white down in SNE, but that is not where it counts (speaking as a former MA resident and having been there). Here in Plymouth, we still have above average snow depth. We might have to pay a little now due to our above average November and December. I believe powderfreak is fond of saying that Mother Nature loves her averages. No doom and gloom here, we take the hit, look forward to the next storm, and make the best of things.


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## snoseek (Feb 1, 2008)

Snow vibes sent-look for better times next week.


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## bobbutts (Feb 2, 2008)

about an inch of sleet soaked with rain and glazed with freezing rain.  ugh


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## billski (Feb 2, 2008)

bobbutts said:


> about an inch of sleet soaked with rain and glazed with freezing rain.  ugh



That assessment summarizes all of VT at this point.  All areas received about 0.9 inches of rain on Friday.  It has been lightly snowing from Montpelier and north since about 3AM, but that inch or two isn't gonna fix things.  Today's the day the groomers earn their keep, after the water drains.

I'm still planning on getting out Sunday (since more rain may be on the way midweek next).  No decision on destination until this evening's reports, but I suspect I'll be one of the few people with reports on Sunday.  While I don't plan on skiing well, I would expect I'll be skiing FAST.

It rained in torrents in Eastern Mass. yesterday afternoon.  I expect Wa-wa snowpack has suffered greatly.


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## KingM (Feb 2, 2008)

billski said:


> That assessment summarizes all of VT at this point.  All areas received about 0.9 inches of rain on Friday.  It has been lightly snowing from Montpelier and north since about 3AM, but that inch or two isn't gonna fix things.



I disagree. It's definitely a net gain of a few inches.


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## KingM (Feb 2, 2008)

Here's the official word after shoveling off my decks this morning and having the plow guy come and clear up the parking lot.

We started with all snow, then went to tiny, sand-like ice pellets. There was some more snow which transitioned to some freezing rain last night. It is currently snowing very lightly.

Shoveling the couple of inches of snow this morning (I shoveled an inch or two of lighter stuff last night) was very heavy, back-breaking work. It wasn't so saturated, however, that it wouldn't break up and its definitely all frozen now. The groomers should do really nice. Skiing in the woods or on ungroomed trails will be a challenge IMHO.

It's still a net gain, given that we haven't had any big dumps in the last couple of weeks.


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## riverc0il (Feb 2, 2008)

KingM said:


> It's still a net gain, given that we haven't had any big dumps in the last couple of weeks.


If natural snow trails and woods are not skiable, it is not a net gain, IMO. I would rather loose some snow and have all trails open than need to wait for another foot of snow to open trails back up again. Net gain of total snowfall perhaps, but the reports coming in from the reports look pretty nasty. Dare I say that Jay gets the award for being the most honest? Yesterday and today's reports were very rank and also funny.


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## KingM (Feb 2, 2008)

riverc0il said:


> If natural snow trails and woods are not skiable, it is not a net gain, IMO. I would rather loose some snow and have all trails open than need to wait for another foot of snow to open trails back up again.



I didn't say they weren't skiable, but that they would be a challenge.



> Net gain of total snowfall perhaps, but the reports coming in from the reports look pretty nasty. Dare I say that Jay gets the award for being the most honest? Yesterday and today's reports were very rank and also funny.



I'm really not trying to spin this, but I don't think it's nearly as bad as everyone is fearing, at least in the MRV. Here is what Sugarbush and Mad River say today:

Sugarbush:



> We've still got a few flurries coming down this morning. I just talked to Patrol and they are saying that since yesterday we've recieved 8 inches of new snow! Though we did get some wet stuff last night, the snow held up great and they're saying that it is already skiing nicely this morning. Today there is a chance for flurries most of the day and the temperatures are going to be in the mid 20s again.



MRG:



> The storm continues to rage this morning with some gusty winds. We have picked up a good 3-4" of ideal Mad River Glen snow. We did see some sleet/grapple mixed with the snow overnight and it has a kind of "sandy" consistency to it.  We have received exactly  the kind of snow we need to hopefully re-open the whole enchilada as this snow stuck to everything very nicely and is clinging nicely to our slopes.   There is a tad more snow  in the forecast for today so it looks like we'll have some real nice "surfy" skiing for the big Super Bowl Weekend!


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## JPTracker (Feb 2, 2008)

riverc0il said:


> If natural snow trails and woods are not skiable, it is not a net gain, IMO. I would rather loose some snow and have all trails open than need to wait for another foot of snow to open trails back up again. Net gain of total snowfall perhaps, but the reports coming in from the reports look pretty nasty. Dare I say that Jay gets the award for being the most honest? Yesterday and today's reports were very rank and also funny.



Jays Snow Report



> **Winter Storm Warning in Effect**
> 
> Ok, so this is the deal.  Heavy snow yesterday morning for several hours before turning toward mixed precipitation in the afternoon then to freezing rain as we approached supper time.  It seems that it did flip to all rain for a period between midnight and 1:30am or so, but then stopped before turning back to heavy snow around 4:45am.  Heavy snow is still with us here at 6:30am.
> 
> ...


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## ALLSKIING (Feb 2, 2008)

billski said:


> That assessment summarizes all of VT at this point.  All areas received about 0.9 inches of rain on Friday.  It has been lightly snowing from Montpelier and north since about 3AM, but that inch or two isn't gonna fix things.  Today's the day the groomers earn their keep, after the water drains.
> 
> I'm still planning on getting out Sunday (since more rain may be on the way midweek next).  No decision on destination until this evening's reports, but I suspect I'll be one of the few people with reports on Sunday.  While I don't plan on skiing well, I would expect I'll be skiing FAST.
> 
> It rained in torrents in Eastern Mass. yesterday afternoon.  I expect Wa-wa snowpack has suffered greatly.



This is just not true. At Killington things never got wet. Infact between snow and sleet we picked up around 7 inches. Sugar snow for today, conditions are great on the hill.


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## riverc0il (Feb 2, 2008)

That sound have said Jay's reports were very "frank" not "rank" but that was an ironic slip. The report yesterday ended with something along the lines of "becareful if you are driving up tonight, you nut" or something like that.  Nut was not the exact word or phrase used but you get the point.


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## bobbutts (Feb 2, 2008)

My report of sleet and then glaze is just for my back yard, right near Concord NH in the lowlands.  I don't think as much liquid fell in many places above and north of here.


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## reefer (Feb 2, 2008)

ALLSKIING said:


> This is just not true. At Killington things never got wet. Infact between snow and sleet we picked up around 7 inches. Sugar snow for today, conditions are great on the hill.



Thanks Dave, keep us posted. K is on the radar for tomorrow...................still surfing


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## riverc0il (Feb 2, 2008)

bobbutts said:


> My report of sleet and then glaze is just for my back yard, right near Concord NH in the lowlands.  I don't think as much liquid fell in many places above and north of here.


Nasty mix here in Ashland/Plymouth. Not sure if it ever changed over completely to rain but S reported a two hour drive between Concord and Ashland heading home last night with a half dozen accidents minimum including three complete flips. She did 30 the entire drive home on I-93. Roads were terrible. Mountains with good grooming will be the way to go this weekend.


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## ckofer (Feb 2, 2008)

KingM said:


> I can't speak for Wachusett or Mt. Snow, but everything in Northern Vermont is still 100% open, even the all natural stuff at MRG. The skiing, believe it or not, is far, far better than what I've seen during crappy weather periods in the past. So, get in a car and drive north for a couple of hours. It's worth it.



Smuggler's Notch seemed to have 75% of their trails open. Yesterday was my first time there and didn't know what to expect. Cool mountain but needs some more snow.


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## ckofer (Feb 2, 2008)

ALLSKIING said:


> This is just not true. At Killington things never got wet. Infact between snow and sleet we picked up around 7 inches. Sugar snow for today, conditions are great on the hill.



Based on that, what others are posting and what I saw myself, it looks like Killington could be the winner on this one. I'd like to hear how other mountains near K did.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 2, 2008)

riverc0il said:


> If natural snow trails and woods are not skiable, it is not a net gain, IMO. I would rather loose some snow and have all trails open than need to wait for another foot of snow to open trails back up again. Net gain of total snowfall perhaps, but the reports coming in from the reports look pretty nasty.




I'm kind of yes and no with this assessment.  The fact that a weather event like this renders the natural snow trails unskiable is a negative.  Having to wait until the next storm for things to open back up again is also a negative and will test patience.

That said, I think increasing the base in these areas is a positve.  The season's a marathon, not a sprint.  With so much time left to go I'm willing to sacrifice a bit of time in the short term if it means building a deeper base for the long term.  Sometimes these 'crust' events set up as a nice 'shield' protecting snow depths.

It's a bummer that we won't be able to get in the woods again for a bit, but the alternative you suggested rarely exists.  How often do we have a weather event resulting in a net loss of snowpack and yet the woods are still skiable this time of year?  The only way for that to work is if it rains and then it's extremely warm the next day or there's a persistent thaw where we are losing snow, but it's still soft because of weather.

Knowing that last truth.....I'll take the base building event and just be patient for the next dump.


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## riverc0il (Feb 2, 2008)

My perspective is just biased because the base in NoVT is already "deep enough" for my needs so preservation and access are currently more important than adding a few inches. Just my bias showing  My original point is that it certainly could have been worse and this is not the end of the world. My previous post was just saying this isn't an event to see through rose colored glasses either. Damage was done but it was not bad damage.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 2, 2008)

Sometimes I neglect to remember your a jay skier.  I fully get your perspective now and would to if I was jay skier

lucky bastard :lol:


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## reefer (Feb 3, 2008)

*Killington Gain*

As Allskiing said, definitely a net gain at K. Was there today and not much was closed, if anything really. I was cutting freshies, moving piles of pow, and skiing all of Killingtons woods. Sweet day! Report is coming up and pictures tomorrow!
Thanks for the report yesterday Dave, you made my Sunday! Was out early and got the goods!


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## KingM (Feb 3, 2008)

I was at Mad River today and there was some nice extra snow. The non-groomed stuff wasn't light, but it wasn't concrete, either. Definitely skiable.


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## ozzy (Feb 3, 2008)

Tuesday and Wednesday look rough for Killington. Not to worry though it's going to be 5* after it rains...

Tuesday: Periods of rain, mainly before 1pm. High near 49. South wind between 8 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. 

Tuesday Night: Rain likely, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 36. South wind between 10 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. 

Wednesday: Periods of rain before 4pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers. High near 40. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. 

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


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## billski (Feb 4, 2008)

perfect.  all that water will freeze solid making for a skater's delight!


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## KingM (Feb 4, 2008)

Doesn't sound nearly as bad in the Mad River Valley. I wonder if things have moderated since last night's forecast. Well, it's still not good, of course.

# Tonight: A few snow showers around this evening. Then a wintry mix expected overnight. Low 26F. Winds SE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precip 70%.

# Tomorrow: Light rain and freezing rain in the morning. Rain showers in the afternoon. High near 40F. Winds SSE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precip 70%.

# Tomorrow night: Mainly cloudy early. Then a mix of wintry precipitation expected late. Low around 30F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 70%.

# Wednesday: Cloudy with a wintry mix. Highs in the mid 30s and lows in the mid teens.


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## ALLSKIING (Feb 4, 2008)

I think the forecast has improved a bit.....I don't mind the sleet if it adds up like it did last Friday..

Killington (Base: 1,165', Top: 4,241')


6-day Forecast Discussion Updated for Monday, February 4, 2008


OVERALL SITUATION--TODAY--It's tough to think about anything but the bitter Patriots loss last night but the weather keeps on going.  The overall pattern flow will be from the southwest for the first part of this week.  We'll be seeing more clouds today with weakening light snow showers pushing in from the west but these will be lacking upper level support to follow through all that much.  A beefier batch of snow/rain showers heads our way overnight and into Tuesday morning--otherwise, fairly cloudy but tolerable temperatures and light breezes.

TUESDAY--An early wintry mix batch of showers pushes through mainly early in the day with slightly drier conditions for the afternoon.  We could pick up a coating to a couple of inches from overnight before snow showers turn to more icy rain drops instead.  Southwesterly winds will be strong early then shifting more westerly as we dry out a bit later in the day.  Clouds may thin out later on but reinforcing cloudiness will be on its heels overnight.

WEDNESDAY--With the storm track, or frontal boundary lying through the region, we'll be seeing yet another heavier disturbance slide through with a stronger upper level trough of low pressure.  Look for periods of an icy/rainy mix early turn to some snow as the colder air presses back in from the northwest.  Winds shift northwesterly and temperatures drop with minor accumulations possible late before tapering off overnight.  

THURSDAY--Colder and drier conditions return with a brief ridge of high pressure sliding through aloft.  

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY--The storm track which has been moving through us will shift a bit further out to sea with disturbances flaring up to our southeast.  A couple of upper level disturbances will be able to churn up occassional snow but accumumulations may be low.  Plus, colder air will be draining back in from the northwest as well-CT


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## KingM (Feb 5, 2008)

Hey, we got several inches of snow last night, enough to where they actually canceled school. And while the forecast shoes some sleet and freezing rain to contend with, they've also upgraded how often the snow will fall vs rain over the next couple of days.

Just a couple of days ago the MRG weather blog was showing a warm, rainy disaster midweek, where it looks like we'll end the week with quite a bit more snow than we started. Awesome.


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## snoseek (Feb 6, 2008)

snoseek said:


> Snow vibes sent-look for better times next week.[/QUOTE
> 
> It worked-your welcome


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## deadheadskier (Feb 6, 2008)

deadheadskier said:


> I think things are gonna be just fine.....maybe not everywhere up north.....but I don't ever recall conditions being bad in March in Northern VT.  They'll get their snow.  The Loaf will get their late season smattering to.
> 
> How people even pay the slightest attention to anything beyond 5 days is beyond me.  The last storm last week dropped 10 inches on Wildcat, no one had a clue about it until 3 days prior tops.  There's been plenty of fantom storms up in Northern Vt the past several weeks.
> 
> NO ONE sat here on Feb 1st and could've predicted the V-Day storm and other great ones to follow.  Next week's forecast is weak.  That's New England for you.  No need to hang your head low though.  I've got faith




I believe Wildcat has recieved 21" now since this statement and more appears to be on the way.  You just never know and always gotta try and stay positive


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## KingM (Feb 6, 2008)

Yep, the "Ughh" forecast was one of the blow forecasts of the year. 

Tons of fresh snow at MRG today and a bunch more on the way. :beer:


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