# Powerball!!!



## from_the_NEK (Nov 28, 2012)

Ok math people. How do lottery odds work for Powerball?

I've looked at it this way:

Exact odds for winning with one ticket are: 1 in 175,223,510
Buying 100 tickets actually "increases" you odds to: 1 in 175,223,410

There are 175,223,510 possible combinations of balls. Buying one ticket locks you in for one combination. Buying 100 tickets just buys you 100 combinations.

Therefore, I never buy more than one ticket.

However, an article I read says buying 100 tickets increases your odds to 1 in 7,000,000. 
How could this be so ?


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## o3jeff (Nov 28, 2012)

I'll usually buy 2 when it gets up to a few hundred million.


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## Puck it (Nov 28, 2012)

Your math is wrong.

Powerball is a 5/49+1/42 game whose first 5 numbers are drawn from 1 ~ 49 and last digit number is drawn from a separate number set 1 ~ 42. There are possible combinations for the first 5 numbers drawn. So there are totally 1,960,884x42 = 80,089,128 possible combinations for Powerball. 

Exact odds for winning with one ticket are: *1 : 175,223,504
*Exact odds for winning with one ticket buying 100 tickets with different combinations are:* 1 : 1,752,235  

The difference between is a two orders of magnitude due to the 100 tickets.

*


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## SkiingInABlueDream (Nov 28, 2012)

I struggled through statistics class, beyond the most basic stuff. 
If you roll a 6 sided die and get to choose 1 number, your odds are 1:6. If you get to choose 2 numbers then your odds become 2:6, not 1:4 right? So if that's correct then yeah, your odds at powerball increase 100x.

Is the jackpot high enough to net gain from buying 175 million tickets?


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## Puck it (Nov 28, 2012)

skifastr said:


> I struggled through statistics class, beyond the most basic stuff.
> If you roll a 6 sided die and get to choose 1 number, your odds are 1:6. If you get to choose 2 numbers then your odds become 2:6, not 1:4 right? So if that's correct then yeah, your odds at powerball increase 100x.
> 
> Is the jackpot high enough to net gain from buying 175 million tickets?



The issue there is the number of multiple winners probability.  The time that it would take to get 175M different tix printed too.


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## wa-loaf (Nov 28, 2012)

skifastr said:


> Is the jackpot high enough to net gain from buying 175 million tickets?



Prob not once taxes are figured in and the odds of having to share with someone.

I grabbed a quick pick and did one with birthday numbers and stuff. I know I'm most likely throwing my cash away ...


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## from_the_NEK (Nov 28, 2012)

Your initial numbers are wrong. Powerball has 59 White balls and 35 Red balls.
So a 5/59+1/35 game

I think the caculation works out something like this:

1/[(59x58x57x56x55/5x4x3x2x1)x35] = 1 in 175,223,510

or a 0.00000005707% chance of winning with one ticket.

100 tickets gets you 0.000005707% chance of winning (which is where the two orders of magnitude come in)?


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## from_the_NEK (Nov 28, 2012)

skifastr said:


> Is the jackpot high enough to net gain from buying 175 million tickets?



Actually, if you were able to buy 175,223,510 tickets and make sure they didn't repeat combinations you would win the jackpot but the tickets would have cost you $350,447,020. The lump sum cash payout on the current jackpot is $327.4 million (before taxes). So it wouldn't pay off. Add the fact that you would stand a pretty good chance of splitting the jackpot (due to the large numbers of tickets being sold) and your ticket "investment" would end up even worse .

The lump sum payout


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## SkiingInABlueDream (Nov 28, 2012)

Nevermind the fact that if you have a spare 175 mil in your pocket you don't need lottery. 

Edit: yeah, I usually buy a couple tickets when the pot gets big too.


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## Puck it (Nov 28, 2012)

from_the_NEK said:


> Your initial numbers are wrong. Powerball has 59 White balls and 35 Red balls.
> So a 5/59+1/35 game
> 
> I think the caculation works out something like this:
> ...



Oops.  never trust google.  I never play so I did not know how many balls there were.  The two orders of magnitude come from the 100 tickets.


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## ctenidae (Nov 28, 2012)

The Lottery is a tax on people who can't do math.

That's not to say it's not fun to think about and dream, and when the numbers get high enough it's fun to play. Daily scratch ticket players, though, are paying a completely voluntary tax.


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## from_the_NEK (Nov 28, 2012)

So the 100 tickets drops two zeros from the percent chance of winning.

According to your example above, it would be "1 in 1,752,235".
That just seems to improve the odds too much by only buying 100 tickets. But if I do the full progression..

100 tickets = 1 in 1,752,235 odds
1000 tickets = 1 in 175,223
10,000 tickets = 1 in 17,522
100,000 tickets = 1 in 1,752
1,000,000 tickets = 1 in 175
10,000,000 tickets = 1 in 17.5
100,000,000 tickets = 1 in 1.7


I better go buy 100 tickets!  I can't pass up those odds.


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## Puck it (Nov 28, 2012)

from_the_NEK said:


> So the 100 tickets drops two zeros from the percent chance of winning.
> 
> According to your example above, it would be "1 in 1,752,235".
> That just seems to improve the odds too much by only buying 100 tickets. But if I do the full progression..
> ...




Ding ding ding


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## dansherpa (Nov 28, 2012)

Buy 100 tickets with the same numbers, so when those numbers are drawn, even if someone else has the same numbers, you get almost all of the jackpot.


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## ctenidae (Nov 28, 2012)

dansherpa said:


> Buy 100 tickets with the same numbers, so when those numbers are drawn, even if someone else has the same numbers, you get almost all of the jackpot.



Now, that's tricky!


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## RootDKJ (Nov 28, 2012)

ctenidae said:


> The Lottery is a tax on people who can't do math.
> 
> That's not to say it's not fun to think about and dream, and when the numbers get high enough it's fun to play. Daily scratch ticket players, though, are paying a completely voluntary tax.



^ Yup.  A very clever tax indeed.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 28, 2012)

Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2

I once counted 200 scratch off tickets in 2 hours, cost of tickets if they were sold to me would have been $400, total winnings was $75, made me stop buying lottery.


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## ctenidae (Nov 29, 2012)

Well, I didn't win, but I did read the FAQ on the Powerball website, and I have to say, it was pretty funy. Incredibly funny based on what one would expect from a multistate lottery site, but actually funny in its own right as well.


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## Glenn (Nov 29, 2012)

:lol:



> First, we need to cover some things that don’t work. Swinging a live chicken
> above your head while wishing for the future numbers does NOT work. There is no
> improvement to be had by swinging a dead chicken. Although I have not tested it,
> swinging a bucket of extra crispy is not likely to work either. We have had
> ...



http://www.powerball.com/pb_contact.asp


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## gmcunni (May 15, 2013)

got my winning ticket today.  estimated cash payout around $230M lump sum.

Plan is to purchase a nice summer home in South Carolina, either Hilton Head or Kiawah Island.

Due to family considerations we'll stay in CT for a few more years, probably do a seasonal rental in VT rather than invest there.

After that we'll move west, buy a small place in Denver downtown (thinking high rise condo right downtown)  and a large house in the mountains.  Perhaps Breckenridge area since my wife loves that town.  

I figure Memorial Day to Labor Day in the summer home.  We'll hang in Denver during the fall with occasional trips to the mountains. We'll spend more time in the mountains during the snowy months but trek back to the city for occasion nights out or for a change of scenery, especially during the pesky tourist weekends.


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## marcski (May 15, 2013)

gmcunni said:


> got my winning ticket today.  estimated cash payout around $230M lump sum.
> 
> Plan is to purchase a nice summer home in South Carolina, either Hilton Head or Kiawah Island.
> 
> ...



Why not keep a place in Ct. for foliage season?  They don't have the hardwoods we do back here in the east....makes for less color.


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## gmcunni (May 15, 2013)

marcski said:


> Why not keep a place in Ct. for foliage season?  They don't have the hardwoods we do back here in the east....makes for less color.



i guess it is a possibility, could do summer down south, come up here for fall and hit Denver after Halloween.  seems a bit frivolous to have a house in New England for just 8 weeks of the year tho.


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## marcski (May 16, 2013)

gmcunni said:


> i guess it is a possibility, could do summer down south, come up here for fall and hit Denver after Halloween.  seems a bit frivolous to have a house in New England for just 8 weeks of the year tho.



Is anything really frivolous after winning 230 million??


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## ScottySkis (May 16, 2013)

I would have a home on top of Alta_Snowbird, and good car, not to expensive, some money for my love ones and quit my current job, but honestly I get bored so I work about 20 hours a week when not skiing just a non stressful job.


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## wa-loaf (May 16, 2013)

I'd probably buy a ski shop at a mtn somewhere to give me something to do. I'd be happy to run it at break even. Then I'd need a city apartment and a lake/beach house for the summers.

Looks like we get another shot.


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## deadheadskier (May 16, 2013)

I'm glad no one won.  $360M wasn't quite enough for me.


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## gmcunni (May 16, 2013)

deadheadskier said:


> I'm glad no one won.  $360M wasn't quite enough for me.



i agree, with the added $$ i won't feel as bad including a home in New England for the fall foliage.   It will make my Mom happy too since she'll still be here.


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## Warp Daddy (May 16, 2013)

Hell i get bored easily so i'd lease a bunch o places all over the damn world till i got rid of the wnderlust

BUT lease em just i n time for the occupany ( moving targets are HARD to hit ) then id have total flexibility and NOT be tied down with property and all that crap and yeah my so called residence for tax purposes the Cayman Is. Hahahaha


 id set up a Charitable foundation  hey gotta be tax conscious  wink wink  give grants to needy skiers   to enhance their emotional , physical and psychological well being and addrees obeisity issues too hell gotta be PC and get some write off too 

And yeah i.m taking care of all my kids and grandkids with serious trusts but the $$$$ dont flow till they prove to me they are independently ABLE to be productive . I want to incentivise their success not create drones  hahahaha ,, guess ill need a lear jet tho  dont want to depend on commercial airtravel , hey mebbe i can set up


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## Nick (May 16, 2013)

How many combinations are tehre actually available?


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## Riverskier (May 16, 2013)

deadheadskier said:


> I'm glad no one won. $360M wasn't quite enough for me.



You know, it is funny you mentioned that. I work a couple nights a week at a convenience store my family owns. When the jackpot gets high like this, sales of tickets at least quadruple. People mention all the time how with the jackpot this high it is NOW worth playing. I mean, the Powerball jackpots are usually 100+ million, how much different would your life really be with 100 million or 300 million??? I know the increase is ultimately attributable to the hysteria surrounding the historic jackpots, but it is still funny to hear the justifications.

On another note, I don't play myself, but I get it- it is fun to dream (unless you are actually stupid enough to think you have a relevant chance of winning). That said, almost nobody who came into the store last night bought only one ticket. Most people spent $10-$20. Why on earth would you buy more than one ticket? You only need one to "dream" and why would otherwise intelligent people (some of them anyway) waste their money on improving their odds from approx. 1:150,000,000 to 5:150,000,000???


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## deadheadskier (May 16, 2013)

Oh there's a difference my friend.  At a $100M I'd probably have to settle for Caymus as an everyday drinking wine.  $300M and I could step up to Bruno Giacosa without feeling too irresponsible.


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## Riverskier (May 16, 2013)

Caymus, oh the horror!!!


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## from_the_NEK (May 16, 2013)

Riverskier said:


> People mention all the time how with the jackpot this high it is NOW worth playing. I mean, the Powerball jackpots are usually 100+ million, how much different would your life really be with 100 million or 300 million???



100 million = sweet yacht
300 Million = sweeter yacht with helicopter option. Imagine the heli-skiing you could do!


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## from_the_NEK (May 17, 2013)

Jackpot up to $600 million now.


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## wa-loaf (May 17, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> Jackpot up to $600 million now.



If I win I'll buy a pair of skis for everyone who has more than 500 posts on AZ as of today. Maybe throw a big party at Sugarloaf or something too.


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## deadheadskier (May 17, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> Maybe throw a big party at Sugarloaf or something too.



hell, with that kind of coin you could just buy the place


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## wa-loaf (May 17, 2013)

deadheadskier said:


> hell, with that kind of coin you could just buy the place



Nah, too much work.


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## ScottySkis (May 17, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> If I win I'll buy a pair of skis for everyone who has more than 500 posts on AZ as of today. Maybe throw a big party at Sugarloaf or something too.



Thanks that is a great offer.


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## twinplanx (May 17, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> Nah, too much work.


how about Maple Valley? A Snowcat and a few Snowmobiles should do the trick...


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## ctenidae (May 17, 2013)

I put in with the office pool. It'd only be $20 million, but I suppose it'd be OK for a little while...


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## jrmagic (May 18, 2013)

ctenidae said:


> I put in with the office pool. It'd only be $20 million, but I suppose it'd be OK for a little while...


Better than being the only one in the office if they hit and you didnt pay lol


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## gmcunni (May 18, 2013)

I won . . . $8


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## wa-loaf (May 19, 2013)

gmcunni said:


> I won . . . $8



Congrats ... ?

I got nothing.


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## deadheadskier (May 19, 2013)

gmcunni said:


> I won . . . $8



are you going to double down on Wednesday's Powerball or treat yourself to something nice?


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