# Rebecca very reliable Facebook weather forecasters



## ScottySkis (Jan 19, 2020)

A look at this coming week into the first part of February. 
https://www.facebook.com/groups/741305339318302/permalink/2750508975064585/
Rebeca North East Facebook page weather very good at her job
I rate her predictions at above 80% most of the time.

https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather/
This week is going to be generally cold, but the below average temperatures won’t be as sustained as they looked to be a week ago.  That has caused the expected, cry, winter is over, another warm winter, and so on.  I’ve been asked, “why keep posting on the medium and long range if what I said a week or more ago changes”?   My answer is “that’s why I post on the longer range so much”. Patterns adjust and evolve.  So, I try to keep you in the loop as to how the pattern is progressing.  This post will get into the meteorology a bit….. Y’all can skip to the bottom if you want to see my final thought.

 As I said, this week starts out cold, but we will see some warming for the second half heading into the weekend. The air temperature is going to be average to slightly above average……In other words fairly seasonal. So, it won’t be a torch by any stroke of the imagination.  The week ahead, is looking basically benign with a possible storm this weekend. 
I will try to post on the Euro Weeklies in the Weather Group sometime today; if not today then tomorrow. But on here we can talk a little about the American and Australian ideas of what’s ahead.   

I called for the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) and WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation) to go negative, but they haven’t. The ENSO isn’t looking quite the way I thought it would at this point. But we still do have the warm spot in the GOA (Gulf of Alaska). The reason for all of this has to do with the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation). It was in the warm phase 6, this is helped in assisting the EPO and WPO to stay positive.  With the positive phase we had warmth.  We also have had this undercutting Pacific Jet (PJ). The PJ hasn’t been kind to our storm tracks, which has also helped contribute to how the winter has shaped up so far.  

All the models do generally snow the next 30-40 days as being cold.  The American CFSv2 (The Climate Forecast System Version 2), Australian BOMM (Australian Bureau of Meteorology - POAMA Coupled System) and the American GFS (Global Forecasting System) are showing overall cold, with the American GFS model the farthest east with the cold. The BOMM was higher into phase 8 last week. But it has since fallen off to a more weak phase 8. The Euro model is the farthest west. So, while they support the idea of cold, they each have it centered differently and various extents of the cold. The IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) is an important player in the MJO.  It was in a strong cold phase for last Fall heading into Early winter. Then it reversed to a warm phase signal. The last few days have seen it rebound a bit. Right now, it looks right around average, to slightly positive. This will limit the influence of the IOD for the rest of this winter and into spring. The reason the MJO has acted atypically this year, very well could be due to the expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. But that is a discussion for another time.  The signals are mixed, so things could go either way at this point. 

What the MJO does is going to be critical to how things evolve over the next several weeks.  MJO phases eight through three are considered cold phases this time of year.  When we look at the IOD the Indicators for cold in the Eastern CONUS signals are mixed.  Many of the models are taking the MJO into the NULL phases, which means there is no/or little MJO influence on the pattern. We have seen cold winters that had the MJO going NULL, the most notable was 2015.  If it enters the NULL, what phase it was before then is important. If we enter NULL from Phase 8 we have a better chance of seeing a lot of cold, as opposed to entering NULL from phase 6.    

So, the bottom line is …. I’m sticking with my idea for overall cold for February. I do think the pattern will turn to more sustained cold…. but I wouldn’t be surprised if it went the other way.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 20, 2020)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/741305339318302/permalink/2750508975064585/
Rebeca North East Facebook page weather very good at her job
I rate her predictions at above 80% most of the time.
https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather/
Today is cold, my high  temperature for today was 11. This week will be fairly non-eventful, as Canadian high pressure builds in. 

Looking at satellite we can see the energy that will be moving onto the West Coast. This will progress across the CONUS this week; then possibility becoming an issue for us here in the Northeast. I’ve been talking about this possible storm for a few days now.

The last few days, several of y’all have been upset with the extent of the warmth coming in for the 2nd half of this week.  I’ve been saying the temperatures will be close to seasonal, but not a torch. The models are backing off on the amount of warmth going into this weekend. If you want a snowstorm that is a good trend.  

As for the weekend setup. We will have high pressure over Eastern Canada, as I said the other day, this looks to setup near Hudson Bay. If this indeed happens, there would be a tendency for cold air to filter down out of Canada ahead of the approaching storm. Again, a good thing if you want a snowstorm.  (we could see a shortwave move out of Canada, just before the weekend event. The Arctic Oscillation is currently positive. So, there is a lack of upstream blocking. This would normally mean the storm would what to move into the Lakes. Now before y’all start to cringe. We do have another part of the puzzle that has a role to play. We’re going to have a storm off the Southeast Coast.Our approaching system will squeeze between the northern high and the southeast low. That low off the southeast, will allow the storm approaching from the west to tap the breaks, keeping it from turning too early into the Great Lakes.  If you remember, I said the storm would try to go into the Great Lakes, but the energy would undoubtedly recurve south and east heading for the Mid Atlantic Coast.   Right now, the models are supporting this idea, showing development off the Mid Atlantic Coast.   With the cold air close by any coastal forming in that location, would have something to draw on.  Once the coastal forms, it will move north and east; right now, the most likely track would be south of Long Island and Cape Cod.  So, right now this could be an interior Northeast/northern Mid Atlantic snowstorm; this would keep the core of the snow, north and west of the major cities along the I-95 Corridor. But if the coastal low forms a little farther south, it could shift the snow axis south, bringing the Mid Atlantic and closer to the Coast into play.

I’ve been asked to show model runs once in a while. So, here is the GFS and Euro. Both show a similar idea on both the track and temperature profile. Temperatures will be a major key. But the overall setup isn’t all that bad. We will see how this trends over the next few days.  

Yesterday, I posted on the cold outlook for the next few weeks. While not terrible; it’s not as cold as I thought it would be. But the pattern is going to remain very active. So we see.  

 Images courtesy of Pivotal Weather.


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## 180 (Jan 21, 2020)

She is pretty good, I follow on FB


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## ScottySkis (Jan 22, 2020)

ScottySkis said:


> https://www.facebook.com/groups/741305339318302/permalink/2750508975064585/
> Rebeca North East Facebook page weather very good at her job
> I rate her predictions at above 80% most of the time.
> https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather/
> ...


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## ScottySkis (Jan 26, 2020)

Our storm is pushing away from the Lakes into Canada. So the  Northeast will see things calm down. The same general pattern we’ve been in for the last 3 weeks continues.   Away from the Great Lakes, it will be a fairly tranquil week, until we approach the weekend. 

We are about to enter February; for those south of Northern New England and northern New York State, winter has been lack luster.  These same areas, going forward could end up with the same general idea of little or no accumulating snowstorms.  I still think we will see another cold outbreak during the first part of February. But at this point, I have to ask myself, will areas near the I-95 and closer to the coast see a lot of accumulation snowfall for the rest of this winter? It is possible, but time might not be on their side. 

This week we will see low pressure drop out of the Rockies that will move into the Gulf States. From here, the track is tricky. The other day I talked about the upper level jet pattern. 

Here is a look at the GFS showing its Idea for the Jet pattern. The question is still there, will we see a phase between the northern and southern jet.  Between a possible phase, timing, and extent of cold air. Will be the deciding factors on P-type and who sees what, from the low pressure that move up the East Coast next weekend. Could it be the Miller A storm that some of y’all have wanted? Maybe. The models are going back and forth.  The odds look to be 50/50 for a weekend snowstorm.  But right now, I don’t see this becoming a major deal due to upper air dynamics and available cold air.  We will see!

Images courtesy of Pivotal Weather


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## ScottySkis (Jan 27, 2020)

Getting better let's not jinx anything

"Today we have a very weak disturbance moving overhead, which is kicking off precipitation here and there. We also have a bit of lake effect going on downwind of the Great Lakes. 

Temperatures will slowly drop each day until Friday, then temperatures will start to climb. But all in all, this will be a fairly quiet and dry  workweek, with moderately cold temperatures (not a torch, just close to seasonal)

As we get into the 2nd half of this week. We will see low pressure drop south and east out of the Rockies; there will be a piece of energy in a shortwave in the northern stream dropping into the upper Plains.  As the southern low develops along the Gulf, it remains to be seen if we will see the streams phase (interact) or if the northern energy keeps the southern low to the south with no phase between the two.   If the southern low is suppressed to the south, it will just end up going out to sea. But if it phases it will come up the East Coast, and possibly develop into a Miller A nor’easter.  A Miller A consist of just one primary low that moves out of the gulf then move up Coast as it develops, typically it moves east of New Jersey and south of Long Island. A Miller B is a complex storm that has an inland primary that transfers to the coast, were a second storm will develop and become the primary.   Temperatures over the weekend, will be marginal at best. Without a deep cold pool, figuring out snow/rain will be difficult.  

If you want to know more about types of storms that impact the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. Here is a blog post I did awhile back. 

https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2014/01/types-of-winter-storms-that-impact.html

I’m still expecting a transition to a colder pattern has we get into February. I’ve been talking about this cool down for a few weeks now, you can go back and read my post talking about the evolving solution.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 1, 2020)

Welcome to the end of January. There is no doubt that January was a torch. For most of us, it will generally rank within the top 10 to top 5 warmest January's, depending on where you are. 

Well we made it to Friday. The week has been uneventful. But next week will see things become a bit more active. 

Later today/tonight low pressure will form off the Carolina Coast. This will track well south and east of the Mid Atlantic Coast and stay south of the southern New England Coast as it heads out to sea. For Saturday, those along the MAC and I-95 could see a bit of rain, with areas north of the Mason Dixson line in PA seeing a little snow/mix. It’s possible for a few spots to see some freezing rain. Around New York City and the lower Hudson Valley, as well as Long Island, there could be some rain as well.  Most of New York State and New England should stay dry, but a few showers could pop up closer to the coast, and especially for the Cape and Offshore Islands.  For interior areas widespread rain/mix/ wet snow showers are possible.

A clipper type system will bring a chance for rain/snow showers for Saturday night into Sunday night. Parts of northern New York State and northern New England could see a bit of accumulation, especially in the higher elevations where 1-3 inches of snow would be possible.

Behind the clipper temperatures will rebound for the first part of next week. High pressure builds in and brings us more quiet weather early next week. Monday through Wednesday will see well above average temperatures, then temperatures will start to moderate Thursday and heading into next weekend. By Wednesday, a slow-moving cold front will move into the region. The front looks to stall close to or over New England. Temperatures profiles will be colder behind the frontal boundary. Where the front actually stalls will determine who sees what. We will see several waves of low pressure move along the front, keeping the second half of next week and next weekend unsettled. Rain/mix/snow, with a possibility for at least some freezing rain will be with us during the second half of next week. Again, who sees what will be determined by the frontal location.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 1, 2020)

Ground Hog Day is tomorrow, maybe Punxsutawney can do a better job than most of us have done this winter. The Super bowl is also tomorrow so if you’re going to or having a party have fun.  

Today is basically quiet. We have the system to our South and West, and the little clipper system moving into the Great Lakes.  I’ve been talking about these for a few days now, they are what I consider nuisance disturbances, so I think I’ve covered them enough.  

This coming week

Today has the feel of early spring in the air; the spring like feel will extend into Tuesday, we will see a dusting to 3 inches or so later today and tomorrow across extreme northern Pennsylvania, Northwest New Jersey, much of New York State, and Northern into Central New England.  
later Tuesday into the coming weekend, across northern New York State and Northern into Central New England, there is a good likelihood for Snow /sleet/freezing rain from. Everyone else it is most likely a mix/mainly rain event. But exactly who sees what will depend on exactly where the front stalls out.  Those areas that see mostly snow could end up seeing quite a bit, as several disturbances move along the frontal boundary for the 2nd half of next week.

Looking ahead

Positive TNH pattern (I explained what the TNH is a couple of weeks back), with an undercutting Jet is usually a good indication of a cold and active snowy setup. But January certainly wasn’t like that. The first half of February is beginning to look iffy too.  

The PNA has been positive, but it is looking to go negative again, this would indicate more of a likelihood of ridging in the East. The NAO is looking to go strongly positive (almost off the chart positive) this indicates a strong likelihood of no upstream blocking; as a result, the pattern becomes fast and zonal. 

The EPO is heading for neutral, then it is forecast to turn strongly negative. The WPO is looking to go moderately negative as well.  This is a signal for colder air trying to push out of Northwest Canada and Alaska. But as I’ve said, the MJO looks to want to go back into phases 5 and 6, so how strong that negatively trend for the EPO is going to be, is in question.  

So, for now the cold signal is split in half. But that’s better odds than we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks. The ensembles have been trending colder, but the models track record hasn’t been that great lately, but to be fair neither has mine.  The pattern has adjusted toward my ideas, when I said it would happen, but not nearly to the extent that I thought would happen.  As we get toward Mid-February will that arctic air finely break loose. I strongly believe it well. But I have to temper my ideas, based on the factors I’ve listed above and how the entire winter pattern has unfolded so far.


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## bdfreetuna (Feb 1, 2020)

I liked her forecasts when I was on Facebook, before making the excellent decision to leave the toxic online bullshit echo chamber of narcissistic virtue signalling and varied forms of posturing. Then you realize your data is getting sold to China and other bidders. As Mark Zuckerberg said years ago "They trust me. Dumb fucks!"

Anyway... does she have a normal website where I can keep tabs?


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## ScottySkis (Feb 2, 2020)

bdfreetuna said:


> I liked her forecasts when I was on Facebook, before making the excellent decision to leave the toxic online bullshit echo chamber of narcissistic virtue signalling and varied forms of posturing. Then you realize your data is getting sold to China and other bidders. As Mark Zuckerberg said years ago "They trust me. Dumb fucks!"
> 
> Anyway... does she have a normal website where I can keep tabs?



Yes
https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/?m=1


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## bdfreetuna (Feb 2, 2020)

Hmm thanks... I guess Tornado Girl isn't keeping the site updated though. Keep posting it here


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## ScottySkis (Feb 2, 2020)

bdfreetuna said:


> Hmm thanks... I guess Tornado Girl isn't keeping the site updated though. Keep posting it here



Up I noticed that while ago +100
Absolutely my plan


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## ScottySkis (Feb 2, 2020)

bdfreetuna said:


> Hmm thanks... I guess Tornado Girl isn't keeping the site updated though. Keep posting it here



As of Sunday afternoon

We have a clipper (really more of a glorified warm front) moving through.  This will bring a few rain/snow showers into the region Parts of Pennsylvania, northern Maryland, northern New Jersey into New York State and New England, could see a dusting to an inch or so, of snow/mix. With parts of northern New York State and northern into central New England seeing 1-3 inches of this snow/mix The Tug Hill into the eastern Adirondacks could see 2-5 inches of snow. Southern into Central Pennsylvania, Mid Atlantic and southern New England many will see rain. So no real weather worries,  But roads could be a slippery so keep that in mind.  So those Super Bowl parties should go off with no weather worries. 

Well Punxsutawney says it’s going to be an early spring. I’ve seen Staten Island Chuck and Manchester’s Chuckles the Groundhog said the same thing.  I think Considering winter has been a no show for many of us.  It makes sense from them to say that. NOAA seems to agree, they show February being quite warm.

It will be warmer tomorrow into Tuesday. Then we turn colder for the 2nd half of the week.  It won’t be super cold, but cold enough to produce snow for parts of our region.  We will also have a couple areas of low pressure moving up the Eastern Seaboard.

Tomorrow we will see more sun with temperatures ending around 10 degrees warmer than today. Tuesday will see a cold front slowly approach, it will kick off some rain/snow showers later Tuesday/Tuesday night. Those with the best chance for rain will be across western Pennsylvania, with more in the way of snow/mix in New York State. The front will move into the region on Wednesday, where it will stall.  At the same time will see weak to moderate high pressure build down from Canada. The high pressure will allow moderately cold air to filter into New England and New York State.  There will be low pressure moving along the front. The northern Mid Atlantic will be on the warm side of the front, so mostly rain for y’all.  Rain across western Pennsylvania, will change to a snow/mix Wednesday then snow for Thursday into Friday. For northern Pennsylvania, New York State and New England rain will change over to snow/mix. The farther north and higher up you are the greater your chance for more in the way of snow.  As the high pressure gives way snow/mix will change back over to rain/mix. 

Thursday night/Friday a stronger wave will work up the East Coast. Northern areas will change from snow over to a mix of sleet and freezing rain.  Southern areas will warm Thursday afternoon, changing over from a mix to primarily rain Thursday night and Friday, rain amounts of one to one and half of an inch are possible. Parts of New York State and northern and Central New England could end up with significant snow accumulation during the entire event and very slippery roads are possible during this event.

The system clears the region by next Saturday afternoon.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 3, 2020)

Here are my first real thoughts on the general  P-type as well as a very general basic timeline.  

The second half of this week is going to be very active.  The region will experience rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow.  Parts of the I-95 Tri state might get into some of the frozen precipitation as well. 

Wednesday Rain across southern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York City/long Island much of southern New England. With central Pennsylvania, having the best chance for a sleet/freezing rain mix.  Right not it looks to be light to at times moderate snow across Western Pennsylvania (north of Pittsburgh), western New York State, as well as the southern tier north to around the Mohawk Valley, northern Connecticut, Massachusetts, southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire. Northern New York State, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire look to see next to nothing, but there could be a bit of mix.  Eastern Maine could see some snow, while western Maine sees next to nothing. 

High pressure will move to our north, this is going to allow cold air to try and filter into the region.  Low Pressure will also be moving north and east along the frontal boundary.  The low will be pulling in a lot of moisture.   As we get into Thursday rain is likely for Pennsylvania, and the Middle Atlantic, lower Hudson Valley, most of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 

Thursday morning, cold air looks to get trapped close to the surface. For those south of the Mohawk Valley into the Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley (perhaps even Albany) Northeast Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey, northern Connecticut, and southern Massachusetts temperatures will most likely be just below freezing.  This will lead to the possibility for an extend period of freezing rain. Areas north of I-90 in New York State extreme northern Massachusetts, and northern New England, moderate to at times heavy snow will be possible. 

Friday will see the low pressure moving over the Mid-Atlantic and close to Southern New England. Snow for Northwest Pennsylvania, much of New York State (with the exception of southeast New York State and the Hudson Valley, most of Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and northern and central Maine, everyone else will see rain/mix. The farther south and east you, the greater your chance of seeing just a cold rain.  

Saturday will see lingering wintery precipitation with brisk winds.  Sunday into Monday we will likely be dealing with another storm. 

I will post more as the picture gets clearer.....This is based on what things look like at this time.....but things can change.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 4, 2020)

Later today into tomorrow, we have a storm, bringing snow from Texas into the Great Lakes.  For the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. High pressure will move into Northern New England on Wednesday allowing for a dip in temperatures  a couple of waves will move north and east into our region for the 2nd half of this week.

The storm will move into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday, and a warm front will move up the coast. How far north the front gets will be a key as to where the most snow falls.  Initially, the air will be cold enough for an icy mix and snow Wednesday evening into Thursday morning across our southern areas into Northwest New Jersey. right now, these areas most likely will see a lull for Thursday afternoon as temperatures warm, rain returns for Thursday evening /night. Rain should change over to light snow for your Friday. 

All of this will work North and east for our Thursday.  This sleet/freezing rain risk extends into, western, southern, and central New York as well as the Hudson Valley, Connecticut, Massachusetts, & Rhode Island.  North of these areas more in the way of snow/with some mix possible. These areas will most likely experience a short lived break before the second wave brings back the precipitation.

These two waves won’t be major snow producers. Northern into central Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, New York State south of I -90 and north and west of New York City and Long Island, Southern New England northward into Southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire a Dusting to 3 inches of snow will be possible by Friday.  Areas around Portland and Maine's coastal plain, most likely will see around the same. New York State north of I-90, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire into the rest of Maine 3-6 inches of snow, with perhaps a couple inches or so above that for the mountains. 
Southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, most of New Jersey, New York City and along the southern New England coast this will be mostly rain, with some mixing at times.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 5, 2020)

Not much has changed from my earlier post........Here are the highlights. 

The 2nd wave's track has shifted a little to the south and east.

Winter Weather Advisories are posted for most of Pennsylvania, New York State (northern and west of New York City), and southern and central New England. There are Winter Storm Watches for far northern and northeast New York State to Northern New England. 

Ice accumulation for areas north and west of New York City and Philadelphia…. southeast into northeast Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey of up to a quarter of an inch, with perhaps some higher amounts are possible.  The Poconos, Catskills, Hudson Valley Highlands and Interior Connecticut could also see ice accretion like this. 

Heavy rain for Southern New England and the Middle Atlantic Region, total rain amounts of up to three inches are possible.  Don’t be surprised if a few thunderstorms pop up in these regions as well. The SPC has a marginal Risk for Severe Weather for Maryland, Delaware, Southeast Pennsylvania, and into southern New Jersey.

The 2nd piece of energy (Main wave) track has shifted south and east. 

Most of the snow will be in Northwest Pennsylvania, western and upstate New York, and northern into central New England. 

Here is a map showing my general ideas for the entire event. This could change as I get a better handle on the track of the main piece of energy.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 6, 2020)

A major storm is developing and will impact the Northeast and the northern Middle Atlantic region. With interior areas dealing with rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow, heavy rains for the coast, with severe weather in the southern Mid Atlantic and Southeast. 

Here is a look at the current Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid Atlantic.  There are also flood watches up for New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and points south. 

Earlier I posted my first thoughts on total snowfall amounts.  Those amounts might have to be adjusted depending on the actual track the main wave takes.  But at least for now, the NWS is in general agreement with my earlier map…here is my earlier map.   I have adjusted some of the numbers (but these adjustments are minor) Remember all of this snow won’t come down all at once…. It will be over a 36-48 hour time frame. I admit there are outlets calling for higher amounts. But I'm trying to take a realistic and conservative approach.   

Northeast PA, into New York State and southern New England will be dealing with ice. But I don’t see it being a major ice storm, temperatures just don’t look cold enough for that. Moderate temperatures and upper air dynamics doesn’t look all that impressive.  But 0.25-0.35 of an inch is enough to still cause a lot of issues.  

I will post an update, and if needed a new snowfall map tomorrow morning….(If I do, I will include county lines)

Have a great night.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 9, 2020)

Sorry for not posting this earlier, but my husband built me a new shoe rack with attached drawers for jewelry and my scrunchies in my closet.  So, I’ve been reorganizing my closet, which is a huge job. Anyway……. Looking at this week.

This coming week will see a series of waves of low pressure heading eastward with the strongest of them moving through mid to late week. Each one brings rain and some snow eastward. I will also touch on the long-range weather pattern.

The first wave will bring rain/snow tonight. Most places that start out as snow, will change over to rain. Northern New York State and northern Vermont into Maine will see more in the way of snow. The front is going to stall along the Coast into New England.  Another weak wave will move through later Monday into Tuesday, marginal temperatures will see similar results. Then we will see the third wave move north and east to the west of the front. There will be cold air trying to approach. Timing will determine who sees what, but I think this will be similar to our Friday event, at least as to the areas most likely to see snow amounts greater than 6 inches. So those areas in the snow drought look to miss out once again. ……. Looking out into the future!

The pattern has been wrong and it continues to look wrong moving forward.  This has been a strange winter, it started out great for most of us. But then from Christmas to last week It was dismal  . 

 In this type of pattern, for a snowstorm to occur in the I-95 corridor, everything has to have everything line up perfectly.  If we get the right setup, there can be monster storms. But these windows of opportunity will be fleeting IMO. The storm that just went through, was an example of how things can happen if things line up right.  I ended up seeing 18 inches, Malone to Newport VT down to near Plattsburgh saw 17- near two feet of snow. Spencertown 21.5", Newburgh 13.5. There were reports of 3-5 inches falling over parts of the Tri-State with amounts of 5-nearly 12 inches for parts of Northern Pennsylvania.  Not a block buster, but better than we’ve seen in a while.  

We haven’t seen real arctic highs set up shop driving sustained cold air into our region. Every time we had a system that was accompanied with a lot of moisture the air was too warm and the results were not good for snow.  That strong polar vortex which has been strong for the last 6 to 8 weeks is being attacked by warm air, there is a slight weakening occurring in the vortex.  But I doubt it is going to weaken enough to bring cold air into North America. It will most likely move back to the other side of the pole where it has mostly been since Christmas. 

From here on I use a lot of acronyms; but I’ve used them and explained them in depth in the past, so most of y’all should have an understanding of them. But if you need something cleared up, just ask.  

We’ve had a very progressive pattern, but other than the Friday/Saturday big storm we have little to show for it. Without blocking these storms just don't linger enough to produce big snow storms. The Pacific is starting to look more and more unfavorable. The cold SST spot the Gulf of Alaska is warming In the ENSO region of the Pacific, region 1 and 2 are cooler, with the areas to the west warming. The SOI has been negative a lot this winter; but the MJO and other teleconnections like the IOD have resisted any attempt to a colder pattern.  The latest CFS plume is showing cooling in the ENSO region. The EPO is looking to stay primarily positive. Both the MJO and the NAO don’t look to be cold friendly moving forward. The Southeast Ridge is going to continue to be problem as the battle between the northern and southern streams continues.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 10, 2020)

This week is going to feature an active pattern.  Today is going to turn mild as a fast-moving clipper moves through, bring a couple of fronts through the region. Here is a look at current radar with frontal positions. The clipper brought a trace to 3 inches to Northern New York State, with the higher elevations ending up with 3-6+ inches. Northern into Central New England will see the same general idea. Northeast New England can expect scattered rain/snow showers for the rest of today. Those in Southern and Eastern Pennsylvania, I-95 and Mid Atlantic and Southern New England rain (heavy at times) The front is going to stall. This frontal boundary will be the focus of our weather, for the next few days.

Late tonight and tomorrow, another wave of low pressure will ride north and east along the frontal boundary. The low will move across Virginia and then out to sea. Rain is likely for southwest Pennsylvania especially for those along and south of I-70.  For the lower Hudson Valley, southern New England, Eastern Pennsylvania, I-95 and Middle Atlantic Region rain showers, with areas in Southeast New York State (south of Albany), and along the Connecticut and Massachusetts border seeing a mix, before changing over to rain showers. 

Southern New Hampshire into Southern and Central Maine a mix is likely, especially closer to the coast.  For those north of Pittsburgh, the farther north you go the less chance you see any rain. Western/ Northern New York, Vermont, northern New Hampshire and Northern Maine, should end up with a quiet day tomorrow into Wednesday. High pressure builds in behind this storm.

For late Wednesday into Friday, low pressure will develop in the Southwest US. This will move east and then north and east across Pennsylvania and Southern New England. This track would mean rain for most of Pennsylvania, I-95 and Southern New England. With mix/snow across New York State and Northern and Central New England. Those in northern New York State and Northern New England, have the best chance of seeing several inches of snow.  So the rich get richer and the poor don’t. 

Behind the end of week storm, very cold air comes in to the region just in time for Valentine’s Day


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## ScottySkis (Feb 11, 2020)

Looking at radar, we can see our current weather maker getting ready to depart. The Satellite image shows our next system sitting over Texas. Behind the departing wave of low pressure, slightly colder air will work into the region.  This setup will allow for snow for Upstate NY and Northern New England with mix/rain for the rest of our region. 

As our next storm approaches. This storm will be similar to our storm last week, but it won’t be as strong or impactful. It looks like, rain for most of Pennsylvania and the Mid Atlantic Region. Northern Pennsylvania should start out with some snow, but this will change over to a mix and then rain.  Southern New York State into areas just south of I-90 some snow/mix and rain. But snow accumulations should be fairly light.  Northwest Pennsylvania, western New York, along and north of I-90 and northern New England look to see a general 3-8 inches with localized higher amounts possible.

Very cold arctic  air moves in for Friday and Saturday and then temperatures should rebound for Sunday and Monday.  Another system will move into the Upper Great Lakes early next week. This will allow for snow/rain for our region. With the marginal cold, northern areas will have the best chance of any accumulating snows. With rain for everyone else.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 12, 2020)

Up north place to be


Here is a look at advisories from the NWS.  They basically extend from route 80 in Pennsylvania, into most of New York State and a big chunk of New England.

General idea of P-type

Northwest Pennsylvania, western New York and especially areas along and north of I-90 (including Albany northward) in NYS, Vermont, New Hampshire, into Maine, will see a general 3-8-inch snowfall, with higher amounts possible, especially downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.  Northern, western into central Pennsylvania, Mid and Lower Hudson Valley, western into central Connecticut, Coastal Maine, Massachusetts away from the Cape a trace to 3 inches (Boston could end up with around 1 inch), the Berkshires the Pocono and Catskill Mountains could see a bit more than that.  Long Island, Cape, Offshore Islands, most of New Jersey, southern and Southeast Pennsylvania into Maryland and Delaware it will be primarily rain, with a general 0.50-1.25 inches of rain possible, there could be a few higher amounts in spots.

General Timing.

Southwest Pennsylvania will see rain/mix move in later this afternoon, it should make it into Pittsburgh by 5-6 PM, rain will become heavy at times during the overnight. Tomorrow morning rain could change over to some light snow. Before changing back to rain. All of this will push north and east. Western New York State and Buffalo should see light snow starting 6-8 pm tonight. Snow will start around 10 pm for Syracuse and Albany. This will make it into western Massachusetts and western Connecticut by Midnight. Snow will move into Vermont and New Hampshire during the early Overnight. Boston should see a snow/mix by 1-2 am, Snow/mix should be into Maine by 4 am.  Rain makes it into Philadelphia by 7-8 pm.  New York City and Long Island should see rain/mix 8-10 pm. Baltimore and Washington DC should see a brief break before more rain works in around your rush hour .  

Sleet and freezing rain might be an issue for Northeast Pennsylvania, Southeast New York State and Northwest New Jersey. Connecticut and southern Massachusetts look to see some sleet and freezing rain as well.

Thursday night temperatures will start to plummet; Friday will be very cold with a strong northwest flow. Saturday is looking to be quite cold as well. Temperatures will moderate for Sunday into next week. Then we will see our next storm early next week.
"


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## ScottySkis (Feb 13, 2020)

Here is a look at advisories from the NWS.  They basically extend from route 80 in Pennsylvania, into most of New York State and a big chunk of New England.

General idea of P-type

Northwest Pennsylvania, western New York and especially areas along and north of I-90 (including Albany northward) in NYS, Vermont, New Hampshire, into Maine, will see a general 3-8-inch snowfall, with higher amounts possible, especially downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.  Northern, western into central Pennsylvania, Mid and Lower Hudson Valley, western into central Connecticut, Coastal Maine, Massachusetts away from the Cape a trace to 3 inches (Boston could end up with around 1 inch), the Berkshires the Pocono and Catskill Mountains could see a bit more than that.  Long Island, Cape, Offshore Islands, most of New Jersey, southern and Southeast Pennsylvania into Maryland and Delaware it will be primarily rain, with a general 0.50-1.25 inches of rain possible, there could be a few higher amounts in spots.

General Timing.

Southwest Pennsylvania will see rain/mix move in later this afternoon, it should make it into Pittsburgh by 5-6 PM, rain will become heavy at times during the overnight. Tomorrow morning rain could change over to some light snow. Before changing back to rain. All of this will push north and east. Western New York State and Buffalo should see light snow starting 6-8 pm tonight. Snow will start around 10 pm for Syracuse and Albany. This will make it into western Massachusetts and western Connecticut by Midnight. Snow will move into Vermont and New Hampshire during the early Overnight. Boston should see a snow/mix by 1-2 am, Snow/mix should be into Maine by 4 am.  Rain makes it into Philadelphia by 7-8 pm.  New York City and Long Island should see rain/mix 8-10 pm. Baltimore and Washington DC should see a brief break before more rain works in around your rush hour .  

Sleet and freezing rain might be an issue for Northeast Pennsylvania, Southeast New York State and Northwest New Jersey. Connecticut and southern Massachusetts look to see some sleet and freezing rain as well.

Thursday night temperatures will start to plummet; Friday will be very cold with a strong northwest flow. Saturday is looking to be quite cold as well. Temperatures will moderate for Sunday into next week. Then we will see our next storm early next week.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 13, 2020)

The 3rd wave of low pressure will be exiting the region. Allowing for true arctic air to move into the region. This are will be the coldest we’ve seen, since before Christmas.  The rain and scattered snow we’re experiencing will continue to push to the east. Northern New York State and Northern New England can expect another 1-2 inches with perhaps 2-4 inches in the higher elevations.  Closer to the lakes, scattered lake snow, with a few bands developing, these areas could see another 2-4 inches of snow.

On the radar/satellite image we can see a series of cold fronts retreating ahead of the approaching arctic air. There is warm air moving north and east ahead of all of this. All of these fronts will consolidate and move off the coast tomorrow. Friday and Saturday are going to be very cold; this cold shot will be Short-lived. Sunday into next week will see temperature rebound.  

Friday will see gusty winds, these will make the already brutal cold, feel even worse.  The winds should start to subside Friday evening/night.  As winds calm, conditions will allow for temperatures to plummet, leading to near or even record-breaking temperatures for the overnight into Saturday morning.

A weak clipper will move across our northern areas on Sunday. Rains showers for southern areas and snow showers for northern areas. Behind the clipper temperatures will drop slightly. Then for Tuesday and Wednesday we will see another system approach and move through bringing another bout of rain/mix/snow.  Behind the midweek storm we will cool off once again.


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## ALLSKIING (Feb 13, 2020)

Unfortunately her long term forecast busted with the rest of the forecasters. 

Sent from my SM-N950U using AlpineZone mobile app


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## ScottySkis (Feb 14, 2020)

It’s been quite a while, but the Arctic air is back... Here is a look at the 24-hour temperature change.

The heart of winter 2019-2020 has been very warm.  the Arctic Oscillation has been mostly in a positive phase since early December, around 83% of the time.  The Eastern Pacific Oscillation have been in a primarily warm phase this winter as well.  These two teleconnections are two of the main reasons for the mild conditions this winter. They are the reasons for the behavior and placement of the jet streams. January 2020 temperatures were above average for nearly every U.S. climate division of the Lower 48 states. Ice cover on the Great Lakes is well below average.  

The NAO, AO and the EPO are trending lower (colder). The MJO is also showing signs to a shift to cooler phases.  So is the idea that more cold and snow this winter is preposterous, right?  Most likely not. We have seen many recent winters become cold and snowy. So, there is no reason to think this winter can’t do the same.  Often time, snowy winters in the I-95 are the result of one or two storms. We’ve seen winters over the last 10 years where March into April became very wintry. So, the fact that more cold and snow is likely to occur at some point shouldn’t be a surprise.   

But will it really matter?


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## ScottySkis (Feb 16, 2020)

Well today is surely warmer, than Friday and yesterday. 

This evening into tonight we will see a weak disturbance with a cold front move through.  This disturbance won’t have a lot of moisture with it. But isolated snow showers to the north and mix/rain showers to the south are possible.  Higher elevation areas in our northern areas could end up with some light accumulations, but for everyone else, little to no accumulation is expected. 

Presidents’ Day will be a little cooler than today, but temperatures will be close to seasonable. 

For Monday night into Wednesday we will see a strong area of low pressure move over the Great Lakes. We will also have high pressure over Atlantic Canada. Temperatures will be marginal, but we could hang on to the cold long enough for some snow to start for parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and New England.  Pennsylvania and the southern tier of New York State and Southern New England will quickly change over to a mix/rain, while areas to the north keep the cold longer.  As far as snowfall. This won’t be a huge snow maker, New York State (north of the southern tier and Central into Northern New England will see a general 2-4 inches with higher elevations like the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites seeing a general 3-6 inches with isolated higher amounts possible.  Poconos Catskills, and Berkshires around 1-3 inches, with most other areas a dusting to an inch possible. The same areas that have been getting the rain this winter, look to continue that streak with this disturbance.

Behind this disturbance we will see a short lived arctic air mass move back in. So rain, could change back over to some snow on the tail end of the Tuesday into Wednesday disturbance.
Finally good stuff lol


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## ScottySkis (Feb 16, 2020)

Well today is surely warmer, than Friday and yesterday. 

This evening into tonight we will see a weak disturbance with a cold front move through.  This disturbance won’t have a lot of moisture with it. But isolated snow showers to the north and mix/rain showers to the south are possible.  Higher elevation areas in our northern areas could end up with some light accumulations, but for everyone else, little to no accumulation is expected. 

Presidents’ Day will be a little cooler than today, but temperatures will be close to seasonable. 

For Monday night into Wednesday we will see a strong area of low pressure move over the Great Lakes. We will also have high pressure over Atlantic Canada. Temperatures will be marginal, but we could hang on to the cold long enough for some snow to start for parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and New England.  Pennsylvania and the southern tier of New York State and Southern New England will quickly change over to a mix/rain, while areas to the north keep the cold longer.  As far as snowfall. This won’t be a huge snow maker, New York State (north of the southern tier and Central into Northern New England will see a general 2-4 inches with higher elevations like the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites seeing a general 3-6 inches with isolated higher amounts possible.  Poconos Catskills, and Berkshires around 1-3 inches, with most other areas a dusting to an inch possible. The same areas that have been getting the rain this winter, look to continue that streak with this disturbance.

Behind this disturbance we will see a short lived arctic air mass move back in. So rain, could change back over to some snow on the tail end of the Tuesday into Wednesday disturbance.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 17, 2020)

Today we have high pressure building in with seasonal temperatures. We do have a cold front over upstate New York back through northern New England, but the real cold is going to stay up in Canada. Looking at radar, we can see our next system approaching out of the Midwest. 

This isn’t going to be a really organized system, but it will bring us some snow/mix/rain.

For the Mid Atlantic, most of Pennsylvania, and southern New England will see all or mostly all rain, generally 0.10-0.50 of an inch of rain is likely. While areas north of there see snow/mix, with a change over to rain for some. 

Across upstate New York snow will develop after midnight, then move west to east across New York State and northern into central New England. Snow will make it into Vermont early to mid-morning on Tuesday, the snow will should move into New Hampshire and western Maine between before noon.  Then into eastern Maine around mid-afternoon. The snow will come down fast at times. 

This is going to be a fast-moving system so snow should start to taper off during the day into Tuesday evening. Snow will change to a mix/rain along the seacoast of Maine and New Hampshire fairly quickly. Interior areas will hang on to snow longer resulting in higher accumulations. Most of us will see a change over to rain/mix at some point, with the higher elevations seeing more in the way of snow. 

Here is a map showing my ideas for general snow/mix accumulations.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 18, 2020)

The low pressure moving into Canada, has a warm front moving across the region. Southeast winds will bring in warm air. A cold front will be working through the region. Winds will be quite gusty, as all of this moves across the Northeast. 

Here is a look at current radar, with frontal positions. As well as temperatures across the region.  Those like me north of I-90 in northern New York State and those across northern New England, accumulating snows (I picked up 7 inches of snow) Those areas south of that have seen/are seeing mostly rain.  Colder air will move in behind the cold front.  Wednesday will be 5-10 degrees colder than today, with Thursday and Friday colder than that. Winds will still be a bit gusty. Lake Effect Snow will be flying off of Lakes Ontario and Erie.  Snows will start falling east of the Big Lakes, but it will shift and stay mostly southeast to south of the lakes. Away from the Lakes the next few days look to stay dry.  

To add insult to injury for those in much of Pennsylvania and I-95 Corridor, Southern energy will bring a lot of moisture into the Southeast CONUS, resulting in accumulating snow for southern Virginia and the Carolinas (including the Outer banks) Thursday evening into Friday. Right now, it looks like most of that moisture will stay to our south for the end of week. So, even though the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic are going to be cold; we will see nothing come of it.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 19, 2020)

As advertised today is colder then yesterday, with gusty winds making it feel even colder. Lake effect continues down wind of the lakes. My forecast snow amount ideas haven't changed. The cold front is pushing to the east, behind the front colder and dry air is moving into the region. The cold is going to continue for Thursday and Friday. For the Mid Atlantic it’s been a none winter. The cold high building over the northern Plains into the Midwest will make the next few days quite cold here in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The storm in the southern stream looks to continue that idea, we will be cold, but the moisture stays to the south. Southeast Virginia and the Carolinas could see 3-6 inches of snow.  Maybe Washington DC and Cape May could see a small piece of it. But that will be about it.

This weekend will see temperatures start to moderate.  Monday will see a disturbance move through this will be a rain maker for most of us. Another disturbance looks to move through next Wednesday, this will be a snow/mix/rain producer. 

Next week is cold in the west; but the Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic look to be fairly warm. I’ve been talking about the potential for a colder setup as we move forward. The teleconnections are still hinting at more in the way of a sustained cold pattern for the end of this month into March. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), is looking to quickly drop to at least neutral The Eastern Pacific oscillation (EPO) is looking to quickly drop into negative territory. The MJO is weakening in phase 6, conditions in the western Indian Ocean, look to support a move into Phase 8.   So, the potential is there for sustained below average temperatures.  But we have to remember that below average temps in March aren’t not the same thing as below average temps in January.  

The models are supporting this idea. Most of the CONUS is colder for week 2.  The models do show the cold sticking around for at least a couple of weeks……….


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## ScottySkis (Feb 23, 2020)

The up and down temperature roller-coaster is looking to continue as we move forward.  Also, this stretch of quiet weather we’ve had continues for today and tomorrow; then we will see a little hiccup.  

After a cold start, today has become quite warm, tomorrow will be even warmer. Then for Tuesday into Thursday we will see a disturbance move through. Already, we see moisture streaming out of the Southwest heading our way.

Monday night into Tuesday temperatures will be warm enough, that rain will be in the cards for all of us. Places like Pittsburgh and Buffalo will most likely see scattered showers Monday afternoon but more in the way of widespread rain arrives late in the evening/night. This will all move from south and west to north and east across the region for Tuesday. Northern areas most likely will change over to some sleet and snow by Tuesday night which would continue into Wednesday morning.

Catskills getting nothing good again.


Then Wednesday into Thursday another low develops and moves over the lower Great Lakes and western Pennsylvania and western New York State. This 2nd disturbance will have a better shot at producing accumulating snow across northern Pennsylvania, New York State, and northern into central New England. Thursday into Friday also look to support lake effect snow down wind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Behind the disturbance, we will cool back down; the weekend is looking cold and windy.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 24, 2020)

The gorgeous weather continues for today. Then a complex storm system will bring some rain late this evening and tonight for southeast Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh.  The rain/mix snow will advance north and east during the overnight and Tuesday, making it into Buffalo during mid overnight, reaching Syracuse during the pre-dawn hours, and Harrisburg around sunrise.  The precipitation reaches Burlington very late morning or early afternoon. Many of us, could see a dry slot, before a second-round resumes everything.  This first system will be fairly weak….so not a lot is expected. The mix of rain snow will taper off and end Wednesday morning.

Then later Wednesday and Thursday, a stronger area of low pressure will develop along a slow-moving cold front. This storm will move just west of the Appalachians, then over western Pennsylvania and close to central New York State.  Precipitation most likely will start as rain/rain mix.  But as cold air mixes in with the rapidly intensifying storm. rain will change over to snow for many of us, including places like Pittsburgh. The exact track will determine who sees what and how much. But several inches of snow will be possible across interior northern New York State and northern New England for Wednesday night and Thursday. The snow would taper off Friday. Strong gusty winds will be possible. 

Lake effect snow will setup down wind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Thursday into at least Friday. Lake snows will at first fall near Buffalo and north of the Tug Hill. But then they will shift south toward the Boston Hills/ Southern Tier, and the Tug Hill. These are the areas that will see the bulk of the lake snow. This could end up being the first major lake effect event this winter.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 25, 2020)

The next couple of days will see a gradual drop in temperatures. As I’ve been saying for the last several days we will be dealing with a couple of disturbances this week. The first will be coming through today into Wednesday.  Then a much stronger system for Wednesday into Thursday.

The first system will bring scattered rain and higher elevation snow showers, with most of us seeing mainly rain, but those higher elevations of northern Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey, northern New Hampshire and Massachusetts, New York State (south of I-90) basically a trace to an inch. Those north of there could see 1- maybe 3 inches of snow, especially in the higher elevations. 

Wednesday and Thursday, will see the second system roll through.  This will produce more snow/mix/rain.  Most of us should see mostly rain, before colder air wraps around changing over to a mix/snow. There is going to be a sharp cutoff between the heavier snow amounts and those who see a couple of inches. Those in the higher elevations ( around 1000 feet +) of New York State and northern new England have a chance to see 6-12 inches of snow. Here is a map that shows my accumulation ideas.  It’s been warm so lower elevations will might not see snow stick at first. Wind gust of 30-45 mph can be expected.

Behind this storm, cold arctic air is going to move over the warm wide-open Great Lakes. This is shaping up to be a perfect setup for a prolonged significant lake snow event. Those across the Tug Hill and Higher terrain south of Buffalo will be measuring snow in feet; this will be especially true for those East of Lake Ontario.  Strong winds will result in blowing and drifting snow, resulting in difficult to near impossible travel under the heaviest bands.  Friday and Friday night will see the lake snows drift south. This will bring the Ontario band into the area around Syracuse and along the south lake shore of Ontario sometime Friday night. Here is a map that shows my thoughts on where the heaviest lake snow amounts will be.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 26, 2020)

Our 2nd disturbance is developing. Later today into tonight the storm will move along that slow-moving cold front, then quickly deepen over Ohio and Pennsylvania. Then tonight into Thursday morning the low looks to track between Rochester and Syracuse, then it will move into Southeast Canada. As I’ve been saying the storm is going to be dynamic. The models have been flipping back and forth. Here is a map that shows what I think general snow amounts will look like (not counting lake effect snow) Winds are going to be very gusty with wind gust of 35-50 mph. The snow is going to be very heavy and wet. With the wet snow and gusty winds, power outages are going to be possible tomorrow. So, be prepared. For those in northern New York State and northern New England, The higher your elevation, the more snow you'll see.

The storm is going to stall over Quebec. This is going to lead to a long duration lake effect event down wind of the Great Lakes. As I said, winds are going to be gusty, winds could be gusty enough at times to produce ground blizzard conditions under the heaviest snow bands. The NWS is starting to post Blizzard Warnings near the Great Lakes. Strong wind gusts will last into at least Friday afternoon. Here is a map that shows my lake effect snow amount ideas.

Snow/mix/rain is going to be very variable over the next few days, these maps are general and are to just give you an idea how things look to go.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 27, 2020)

Before the lake effect started up, I received 10 inches of snow. How much if any did all y’all get?

Here is a look at radar and current conditions. The storm is moving away. The snow/mix/rain will taper off from southwest to northeast across Maine later this afternoon/early evening and should end tonight as the storm pulls away from the region. Behind the strong area of high pressure, colder air is moving in. 

Lake effect snow bands are developing, and will basically stay in place for the next 48 to 72 hours. The areas south and east of Buffalo and the Tug Hill Plateau into the western Adirondacks will see the bulk of the snow. Western Pennsylvania including Pittsburgh are seeing lake snow off of Lake Erie. The lake snow bands should shift southeast Friday evening/night bringing snow into the Mohawk Valley, Syracuse, and along the south shore of Lake Ontario. Those outside the lake bands won’t see much if any weather impacts. Here is a map showing my thoughts on lake snow amounts. 

Winds will continue to ramp up this afternoon. Wind gust of 40-60 mph, will cause white out conditions resulting in difficult to impossible travel downwind of Lakes Ontario and Erie. The National Weather Service has expanded the Blizzard Warnings.

The National Weather Service has also issued a Lakeshore Flood Warning for Erie and Chautauqua counties until 1 am Friday, and for Oswego and Jefferson counties through 10 am Friday. High winds and large waves will result in a lot of beach erosion.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 27, 2020)

The lake effect event is well underway. 

The main road (route 177) through Barnes Corners has been closed since earlier this afternoon. Right now, the snow is coming down at a fairly good clip, I would say 3 inches per hour.  The band is going to intensify later this evening into the overnight. Winds have been a steady 35-40 mph, with gust to over 50 mph. This is pushing the snow around pretty good. The blizzard conditions will continue into tomorrow. All of this is causing, dangerous travel conditions, especially on I-81, Route 12 and Route 11, South of the Jefferson County line into Oswego and Lewis Counties. The same thing is occurring south of Buffalo The high winds have led to an empty tractor trailer ban on I-90 from the Lackawanna Toll Barrier (Exit 55) to the Pennsylvania state line. I 87 is also having a lot of issues.  The Lake Erie band extends as far as Norwich, NY.l.p.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 28, 2020)

Sorry for no forecast post today, but I’ve been busy helping with snow removal. The snow belts have been dealing with blizzard like conditions and bitterly cold wind chills since yesterday. 

Last night I went out and violated the Sheriff department recommendation. Here a a couple of pictures I took during that drive. 

This afternoon the main lake effect band as been to my north. Before that happened, I picked up 39 inches of snow. Over the last few hours I’ve been getting moderate snow. Right now, there are multiple lake snow bands coming off of Lake Ontario. That band north of Watertown, is going to drop back south onto the Tug Hill in a couple of hours. When the band shifts the multiple bands will consolidate into one strong band once again.  This evening into tonight I expect to see another 10-16 inches of snow.  Tonight, into the Overnight, the band will shift into the Mohawk Valley and into the areas around and south of Syracuse. These areas will pick up 6 to around 12 inches of snow. 

The same thing going off of Lake Ontario, is happening off of Lake Erie. The lake snow bands south of Buffalo will intensifying this evening and especially into tonight. Those under the main band in the higher elevations can expect another 4-10 inches or so of lake snow.

Tomorrow will see periods lake snow ow showers throughout the day Saturday. The lingering lake effect snow should start to dissipate as we approach Sunday morning. Saturday will still see cold air and gusty winds, but not as windy as it’s been.

I will post more pictures tomorrow after things calm down.

Goodnight


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## ScottySkis (Mar 1, 2020)

Well, we’ve made it to Meteorological Spring. Some are happy; but many are upset with the snow situation so far this season. Up here in Barnes Corners have seen over 200 inches this winter, with most likely more to come. But I know many across southern New England, Pennsylvania, into the Middle Atlantic Region, haven’t done well at all this season, at least so far. Now we will see what March has instore for us. 

Today We have high pressure overhead, so it’s going to be chilly but Sunny.  Here is a look at satellite. 

 A look at the week ahead:

This coming week is going to see it trend warmer and more active.

Tomorrow we’re going to see this high pressure start to move away, and this will allow a southerly flow to setup bringing in milder air. Later tomorrow into tomorrow night a weak cold front will move into our region; This front looks to stall over New England on Tuesday. Another front will approach from the west behind the first, we will see a series of areas of low pressure develop along the front, these will keep our weather unsettled.  Later Monday into Tuesday will see scattered rain showers for most of us. But there could be some mixing of snow, sleet and maybe a bit of freezing rain across the higher elevations of Upstate New York and Northern New England.  Another system will move through later Tuesday into Wednesday.  This should mainly be a rain maker, as temperatures look to be mild. But I can’t rule out a chance for some mixing across those typically higher elevations. 

For Thursday into Saturday things become a bit more complex. We will have a disturbance in the northern stream and a disturbance in the southern stream. We will see a strong cold front approach and move through later Thursday into Friday. It is possible that these two storms phase and cause our region some bigger snow issues. But right now, it looks like there won’t be any phase. If that is the case, we will see warmer temperatures at the start resulting in rain. Then as the colder air drifts in for later Friday into Saturday, that rain most likely will change over to a snow/mix for the same areas that have been seeing wintry weather. So, for now, this end of week event, doesn’t look like a major storm. But that can change. So, we will see.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 2, 2020)

The first part of this is week will feature warmer temperatures. Wednesday will see temperatures cool off slightly. The cooling trend will continue into Saturday 

Our next disturbance is approaching the Ohio Valley. This will produce on and off rain showers for late this afternoon /tonight that last into Wednesday. The front will stall over Pennsylvania and New England. Those in northern areas will see a change over to a rain/snow mix on Wednesday (especially in higher elevations). Thursday is looking breezy but basically quiet ahead of an approaching cold front. 

Then we will be watching a couple of shortwaves, one in the active northern stream, the other on the southern stream. To get a major northeast Mid-Atlantic Northeast storm, we will need both of these shortwaves to phase (interact). Right now, a phase looks to happen too late for a Northeast storm. (as its been all winter timing is everything).  The northern system looks to suppress the southern system just enough to the south that it should remain offshore. The resulting ocean storm looks to stay far enough south and east of our region as to have little impact on our region.

But that doesn’t mean we won’t see any rain/mix/ snow. The northern system will move over Upstate New York and Northern New England dragging a strong cold front through our region. Winds will be very blustery for Friday into Saturday. Much of Pennsylvania and the Mid Atlantic will stay mainly rain. while western and northern Pennsylvania will likely see the rain mix with or end with snow but I don’t expect much in the way of accumulation. Those in Upstate New York, and northern New England, and perhaps as far south as Massachusetts will end up with some accumulating snow for Friday into Saturday.  

But if the timing changes, end of week could be a bigger deal for the Northeast.

Daylight Saving Time arrives on Sunday.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 3, 2020)

An approaching cold front in the Ohio Valley is causing rain showers don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder.  The cold front will move through tonight into Wednesday. Rain will continue through the overnight, with some snow/mix across the higher elevations of northern New York State and northern New England. A trace to an inch is possible across upstate New York and northern into central New England. With places like the Tug Hill seeing 1-3 inches of snow. 

Tomorrow the front will stall for a bit over western Pennsylvania and New England for a bit; then it will surge east tomorrow late afternoon into Tuesday evening/night.  So, expect rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Those northern areas will still be dealing with a snow/mix into Wednesday. We will turn a bit cooler for Wednesday with breezy winds. Scattered rain showers and scattered higher elevation snow showers across northern areas. Not much in the way of accumulations, but a dusting to a couple of inches in some of the higher elevations by the end of Wednesday. 

 High pressure will build overhead for Thursday leading to mostly sunny skies and lighter winds compared to Wednesday. I can’t rule out a few snow showers in the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites.  The Cooler air will continue to build into the region, but most of us will still see above average temperatures. 

Then for Friday into Saturday, a strong cold front will move through. Winds will be quite blustery with the frontal passage. We will see a northern clipper and a piece of energy off the Coast. What we see will depend on how much they interact (phase). Here is a look at the current positions of the northern and southern streams. Right now, it looks like the interaction will be light. So, Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England will see primarily rain, with perhaps some mixing as the colder air moves in. Those in northern areas will see a change over to snow, with accumulating snow possible.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 5, 2020)

This is later than I wanted to post this. But earlier I was driving home, when some guy pulled out of his driveway, are hit my Land Rover.  I’m OK and so is Bryant. My SUV didn’t fare too bad, but the back fender and rear door were damaged, and my rear fairing was torn. The guys girlfriends car had a lot of front end damage. 

Anyway, Today was windy. Tomorrow will feature a brisk northwesterly flow, but it will be warm and basically dry.

Two waves of energy will be approaching and moving through of Friday. The first will be over the Great Lakes; the second will be moving north and east off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. As I’ve been saying these pieces of energy won’t fully phase, but there will be a little interaction between the two.  Both of these will be moving at a good clip as well. All of that along with moderate temperatures, doesn’t spell big snow storm.  Winds will be very gusty for Friday. Colder air will wrap around the backside of the system Friday night, this is when Pennsylvania, Northwest New Jersey, up into Connecticut, could see a trace to an inch or so, with areas like the Poconos and higher elevations in Northwest New Jersey end up with possibly 1-3 inches of snow. 

For the NYS Southern tier up to Buffalo, Syracuse, and Albany up to an inch or so of snow is expected. For those higher elevations, south and east of Syracuse and south of the Mohawk Valley around 1-3 inches will be possible by Friday night. The same thing looks to occur for Massachusetts into southern Vermont and New Hampshire an inch is possible for places like Boston. Across northern New York State and Northern New England 2-5 inches is possible, with perhaps a bit more in the higher elevations by Saturday morning.  The models are hinting at a possible surprise for the Tri-State, this area could pick up more snow than is apparent at this time

The weekend looks to be basically dry. Mild conditions will stick around for Monday and Tuesday. Before a strong shot of cold air tries to invade our region for mid next week.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 5, 2020)

On satellite the two disturbances can easily be seen. These two will start to interact to far south and east to bring the Northeast a big storm.  A coastal storm will develop off the North Carolina Coast. From here it will move north and east and pass well to the south and east of the northern Mid Atlantic and New England. The coastal looks to pass south of Nova Scotia Friday night into Saturday. So, the coastal will only bring a very minimal impact for us here in our region. But we will see snow/mix rain from the northern system as it rotates through. The northern clipper component will transfer to the coastal, as the coastal intensifies south and east of Cape Cod. The coastal storm is going to have a large wind field. So, it will be windy along the Coast, especially over the Cape and Islands. The Cape and Offshore Islands look to see wind gust as high as 45-55 mph Friday night into Saturday morning. But the entire region will see gusty winds later Friday into Saturday. 

As far as accumulating snow, this system isn’t going to be a big snowmaker. Most of Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey will see mainly rain that will mix over to a bit of snow. These areas will see a trace to as much as an inch. But the higher elevations south and east of Pittsburgh; as well as those higher elevations across the Poconos and northeast Pennsylvania, and far northwestern New Jersey could see 1-2 inches. The valleys and lower elevations of much of New York State will see a trace to an inch. With the exception of northern areas, the higher could see 1-3 inches of snow. Places like the Tug Hill and Adirondacks could see 2-5 inches

Connecticut, into much of Massachusetts, seacoast of New Hampshire and in the coastal plain of Maine could see a trace to an inch of snow. With higher elevations in Northwest Massachusetts southern Vermont and New Hampshire seeing 1-3 inches. Parts of the Greens and Whites could see 2-5 inches of snow.

There will be some lake effect on the backside of the system. But nothing remotely like the last event.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 6, 2020)

Our Clipper is dropping out of the Lakes, with the Coastal storm off the Carolina Coast. The Coastal is going to move north and east and interact with the Clipper. When this happens, the storm is going to rapidly intensify (Bomb).  There is going to be a Norlun (inverted) trough over the Mid-Atlantic Region back into southeast and central Pennsylvania. This is going to further complicate the setup, a Norlun  trough can  focus and lift moisture to form intense and persistent snow squalls. But it’s hard to know exactly where the bands will setup beforehand. Those under the NT can expect to see burst of heavy precipitation. P-type will depend on temperature, precipitation rate, and elevation. For the Mid Atlantic back into Pennsylvania, rain should be the prevailing precipitation type. But the NT could throw a monkey wrench into all of that.

General snow accumulation is going to be minimal for most of y’all, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast will see a trace to an inch, with the higher elevations seeing 1-3 inches. The high elevations in northern New York State and northern New England could see 2-5 inches of accumulation. possible by midnight. For those in Southeast Massachusetts, Cape, and Offshore Islands several inches of snow will be possible.

Winds will increase later today, staying gusty into Saturday. Along the coast seas will be very choppy. 

Sunday we warm up in a big way. Monday into Tuesday will see even warmer temperatures. Later Tuesday into Wednesday it will be a bit unsettled. The 2nd half of next week is looking to be mild as well.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 8, 2020)

A quick look at the week ahead

The next couple of days, will be very spring like. No major storms for this week in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Region. 

Today is going to be warm, the warming trend will continue into Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures for Monday, will be from the upper 50’s in northern areas, to the low to mid 70’s in our southern areas.  While there are no major storms on the horizon, we will see 3 weak to moderate systems come through this week. The first will be on Tuesday and another two for later Wednesday and Friday. 

For Tuesday, the warm southwesterly flow will continue for Tuesday, ahead of an area of fast moving low pressure and an associated cold front. We could see a few afternoon/evening showers Monday night, but most of the rain/mix will accompany the cold front on Tuesday. There won’t be any real cold air behind the front but in spite of that, the rain showers very well could end as snow showers Tuesday overnight, across northern New York State and northern New England, especially in the higher elevations.  If this tracks farther south than expected, there will be a chance for some snow showers that extend into southern New England, and farther south in Pennsylvania. 

Some of the precipitation could extend into early Wednesday. But Wednesday should end up mostly sunny and dry. We will be watching a storm system approaching our region from the west. Later Wednesday into early Thursday, we will see scattered rain showers, with the higher elevations having a chance to see snow/mix showers. Most of Thursday should be mild and nice. showers and mountain snow showers. Later Thursday and Friday, another system will bring rain and higher elevation snow showers. This could stick around into Saturday morning,

GFS images are from Pivotal Weather


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## ScottySkis (Mar 10, 2020)

Current spring outlook 

https://wx4cast.blogspot.com/2020/03/my-spring-outlook.html?m=1




This is later than I normally post the spring outlook. But every time I would start to work on it something came up. But beyond that, I’ve been going back and forth with the idea of even posting one at all. More than a few of Y’all used my winter outlook as cannon fodder, making me feel like a long tailed cat in a room of rocking chairs. But I’ve decided to go ahead and post it……


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## ScottySkis (Mar 11, 2020)

High pressure is making for a nice day today across the entire East Coast. But our active and fast-moving pattern continues. There are several systems to watch, but no major storms are expected. 

Our last system has moved away. Now we’re watching our next system approach from the Mississippi Valley. This system is going to weaken as it moves east.  The center of this looks to move over Virginia and North Carolina.  Most of the rain from this system will stay to our South, with the weakening system any precipitation will be widely scattered . There is a chance for isolated rain showers across Pennsylvania and the Mid Atlantic this afternoon. While a few very isolated rain showers are possible across the New York State Southern Tier, most of New York State and New England will stay dry today.

Tomorrow is looking mainly dry, but an offshore flow will keep clouds overhead, with a chance for very spotty sprinkles. But the vast majority of us won’t see any rain at all. 

Our system for later Thursday and Friday is currently over the northern Plains. This system is accompanied by a strong cold front.  Rain will break out west to east starting Thursday night. The rain and most likely a few thunderstorms will continue to move east during the day on Friday. We should see a line with embedded thunderstorms approach out of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes 5-6 am.  The line will move quickly, but 2 to 3 hours of rain, sometimes heavy can be expected, gusty winds will accompany this system as well. I can’t rule out a couple thunderstorms being on the strong side across southern Pennsylvania and the Mid Atlantic. Behind the front, colder air will move in. The quick nature of the front will help keep rain totals down. Right now, rain totals of as much as 0.25” to 0.50” with locally higher amounts is possible. Temperatures behind the front will quickly drop. Across Upstate New York and northern New England, rain will transition over to snow showers, especially in the higher elevations Friday evening/night. Snow accumulation looks light for most, but a moderate accumulation is possible for parts of northern New York State and northern New England, this is especially true for northwest Maine.  

Right now, the weekend is looking seasonally cool and mainly dry. Saturday will still feature some gusty winds.  But there is a stream of moisture moving into the Southwest CONUS, this will have to be watched, for any possible rain threat to our weekend.

If you haven't read my Spring Outlook, I encourage you to do so.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 13, 2020)

Looking ahead:

This progressive pattern will continue as we move into Mid-March. Low pressure frontal and cold high pressure systems will move through, with nothing blocking them they will move out, keep colder air transitory.  

Touching back on my Spring Outlook.  I talked about the Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) teleconnection indices and a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event.

The AO is still looking to turn negative as we move through the next couple of weeks. The NAO is also looking to turn neutral to negative. The EPO has been the major driver in our pattern over the last several months.  The EPO has been mostly positive during winter 2019-2020; But as with the AO and NAO, the EPO is looking to go strongly into a cold negative phase. This is a good sign that March into April will be rocky, with a chance for several shots of colder air to try and invade our region. 

The sun is returning to the arctic, every spring this means we will see the power vortex break down. The models are keying in on the idea for an SSW occurring. Here is a current look at the 10mb arctic temperature and a look at the 10mb arctic temperature in 10 days.  You can see a lot of warming over the Pole. The model is showing the displaced colder air is shoved south over North America. This is a good indicator that Canada and the northern tier of the CONUS could see a few outbreaks of colder northern air. 

I expect to see occasional colder outbreaks over the next two to four weeks. So don’t put those cold weather clothes away just yet.


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