# Snow from NJ to ME on Saturday?



## powderfreak (Nov 5, 2007)

Mid and Late Week...
Most of the major ski resorts in northern New England and upstate NY will be able to make snow for a better part of the day (likely all day at the summits) from tomorrow night through Saturday.  Low elevation highs look to be around 40 or low 40's (I'm talking 1,000ft and below) with near freezing for highs at 3,000ft.  Lows will be in the teens and twenties.  With high pressure overhead for Thurs and Fri, snowmaking conditions will be optimal.  Expect big production from those looking to open a little earlier than the rest of the pack.

Weekend...
Next interesting wx feature is a clipper for Friday night/Saturday.  It looks to dive too far south at this point for the north country, but could effect the northern mid-Atlantic and SNE areas with a mix of rain and snow.  This could easily be the first snowflakes for the Mid-Atlantic/SNE region above 750ft in elevation (parts of CT, S.NY, NW.NJ, etc).  I'll be monitoring this as it should produce a coastal low (a Miller B type system) with a snow/rain shield to the north and west.  Precip amounts look light but maybe a 1-2" snow for some areas outside true ski country.  Today's 12z EURO had this shown pretty well and is in the middle ground of medium range guidance.

Just saw today's 12z Canadian and it went apesh*t with a heavy early season snowstorm from ME back through northern CT.  It has the 500mb trough going negative and then cutting off parking a surface low just N of Cape Cod..with a good amount of wrap around moisture.  Food for thought considering the GFS has been showing nothing to write home about.  The GFS is having a hard time with the tempo of a couple shortwaves in the northern stream later in the week and shoves the first one out to sea quickly...while the Euro and Canadian show the first amplifying enough to take on a neutral to negative tilt somewhere off the SNE coast.  

-Scott


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## 180 (Nov 5, 2007)

Looks like great news.  Let's get this board back on topic.


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## bobbutts (Nov 6, 2007)

powderfreak said:


> Mid and Late Week...
> Most of the major ski resorts in northern New England and upstate NY will be able to make snow for a better part of the day (likely all day at the summits) from tomorrow night through Saturday.  Low elevation highs look to be around 40 or low 40's (I'm talking 1,000ft and below) with near freezing for highs at 3,000ft.  Lows will be in the teens and twenties.  With high pressure overhead for Thurs and Fri, snowmaking conditions will be optimal.  Expect big production from those looking to open a little earlier than the rest of the pack.
> 
> Weekend...
> ...



Thanks for the post Scott.. adding an excerpt from GYX discussion.



> THE WEEKEND COASTAL STORM WE`VE BEEN FOLLOWING CAN`T
> SEEM TO MAKE UP IT`S MIND. YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUN BROUGHT IT UP TO SOUTHERN
> NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN YESTERDAY`S 06Z RUN BROUGHT
> IT FURTHER WEST INTO DOWNEAST MAINE. THE FOLLOWING 18Z AS WELL AS
> ...


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## bvibert (Nov 6, 2007)

Thanks for the encouraging post Scott!  I'll be psyched if we get snow down here!


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## Greg (Nov 6, 2007)

Out local WTNH met alluded to something Friday night into Saturday as early as yesterday morning. Perhaps this will help operations up at Mount Snow?


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## bvibert (Nov 6, 2007)

Greg said:


> Perhaps this will help operations up at Mount Snow?



Can't hurt!


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## JimG. (Nov 6, 2007)

I'm cautiously optimistic.

I'm thinking back 10-15 years to the last November with start to finish cold.


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## Greg (Nov 6, 2007)

JimG. said:


> I'm cautiously optimistic.
> 
> I'm thinking back 10-15 years to the last November with start to finish cold.



How did the rest of that season pan out?


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## JimG. (Nov 6, 2007)

Greg said:


> How did the rest of that season pan out?



Maybe 180 can help me here, but I recall an early and very snowy first part of the season in NY. Crossover was open on Thanksgiving.  Amazing powder bumps on 44. Skiing was boundary to boundary. Right up through New Year.

Then, in mid-Jan, it rained buckets. For like 3 days. And then it was a fairly normal season after that.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Nov 6, 2007)

JimG. said:


> Maybe 180 can help me here, but I recall and early and very snowy first part of the season in NY. Crossover was open on Thanksgiving.  Amazing powder bumps on 44. Skiing was boundary to boundary. Right up through New Year.
> 
> Then, in mid-Jan, it rained buckets. For like 3 days. And then it was a fairly normal season after that.



It sounds to me like either 1995-96...lots of December snow..big Blizzard...massive rain/thaw in mid-late January...or 1997-98...lots of November/December snow..then big thaw/rainstorm..icestorm up north in early-mid January..then normal..


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## powderfreak (Nov 6, 2007)

JimG. said:


> Maybe 180 can help me here, but I recall and early and very snowy first part of the season in NY. Crossover was open on Thanksgiving.  Amazing powder bumps on 44. Skiing was boundary to boundary. Right up through New Year.
> 
> Then, in mid-Jan, it rained buckets. For like 3 days. And then it was a fairly normal season after that.



Sounds like it could happen this winter, too.  A lot of the more skilled long range forecasters keep telling me it'll be cold Nov/Dec before turning mild for a part of Jan and Feb before cold returns late in the season.  Makes sense in the grand scheme of things as weather likes to oscillate in warm/cool patterns lasting 4 to 8 weeks.

-Scott


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## Greg (Nov 6, 2007)

January thaws suck, but if there's a recovery I guess I can live with them.


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## JimG. (Nov 6, 2007)

powderfreak said:


> Sounds like it could happen this winter, too.  A lot of the more skilled long range forecasters keep telling me it'll be cold Nov/Dec before turning mild for a part of Jan and Feb before cold returns late in the season.  Makes sense in the grand scheme of things as weather likes to oscillate in warm/cool patterns lasting 4 to 8 weeks.
> 
> -Scott



It is interesting how these patterns can be established early on and then play out similarly to past history.
The January thaw does suck, but if this actually does pan out the skiing the first 2 months of the season will be well worth it. And it beats a November through mid-January thaw like last season for sure.


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## hammer (Nov 6, 2007)

Greg said:


> January thaws suck, but if there's a recovery I guess I can live with them.


If a January thaw is relatively short and is balanced by cold spells on either side, then it's no big deal...I'd much rather have that than an early spring or a green Christmas.


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## powderfreak (Nov 6, 2007)

JimG. said:


> It is interesting how these patterns can be established early on and then play out similarly to past history.
> The January thaw does suck, but if this actually does pan out the skiing the first 2 months of the season will be well worth it. And it beats a November through mid-January thaw like last season for sure.



I agree.  I don't mind a mid-season thaw because what usually happens up here is we retain a good deal of snowpack which refreezes solid (thaw-freeze cycle glaciates the pack) when the cold returns.  Then when the snow returns (I've found it happens a lot more than after a thaw growing up near Albany) we've got a solid base underfoot to last into the spring.


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## 180 (Nov 6, 2007)

JimG. said:


> Maybe 180 can help me here, but I recall an early and very snowy first part of the season in NY. Crossover was open on Thanksgiving.  Amazing powder bumps on 44. Skiing was boundary to boundary. Right up through New Year.
> 
> Then, in mid-Jan, it rained buckets. For like 3 days. And then it was a fairly normal season after that.



That's a long time ago, but I remember it well, because my first was born in November.  We had that 30" dump around December 1.  I said to my wife, you can try to ski and she said yes let's go up.  I remember pulling into Hunter and seeing Racers closed with lot's of poaching going on.  We then had the big blizzard and then the huge rains.  BTW, mrs 180 skied 10 dys after giving birth.


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