# Northeast Christmas Present???



## drjeff (Dec 16, 2009)

All I'm saying now


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## Glenn (Dec 17, 2009)

Heh, I heard the same thing. Could be interesting!


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## Greg (Dec 17, 2009)

Works for me. Almost started this thread. Bring it.


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## hammer (Dec 17, 2009)

Sorry to be selfish, but please not on the 26th...have a 6 hour drive to NJ to visit family.


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## WJenness (Dec 17, 2009)

Hope we get hammered!

I'll be in SC, so I'll be jealous, but happy for you guys.

-w


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## ZYDECORICH (Dec 17, 2009)

hammer said:


> sorry to be selfish, but please not on the 26th...have a 6 hour drive to nj to visit family.



don't worry bring your stuff. I got a feelin.


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## bigbog (Dec 18, 2009)

Man, wouldn't it be sweet!  Well, temps are looking sweet for snowmaking anyways....it's certainly a nice feeling.


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## mondeo (Dec 18, 2009)

Sweet, I'll be skiing the steeps of WNY!

Actually, I might try to hit up a NELSAP area or poach trails at Holiday Valley where the lifts aren't running yet. There just better be a big New Year's storm as well.


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## billski (Dec 19, 2009)

mondeo said:


> Sweet, I'll be skiing the steeps of WNY!
> 
> Actually, I might try to hit up a NELSAP area or poach trails at Holiday Valley where the lifts aren't running yet. There just better be a big New Year's storm as well.


Get the winds just right and you'll need a snorkel!!


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## Tin (Dec 19, 2009)

You're on to something, two of the three local new stations down here are saying snow/mix Christmas Eve night into Christmas day on their seven day out look.


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## Shock (Dec 19, 2009)

Heh and to think I'll be in Virginia... bummer.  Have fun with it guys!


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## billski (Dec 19, 2009)

Shock said:


> Heh and to think I'll be in Virginia... bummer. Have fun with it guys!


 That's bad, but I'll be in Costa Rica.  I'm starting to worry I might miss something good!


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## RootDKJ (Dec 19, 2009)

My brother is now reporting 6" in Haddonfield, NJ!


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## billski (Dec 19, 2009)

RootDKJ said:


> My brother is now reporting 6" in Haddonfield, NJ!


this is about 7 hours old:


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## billski (Dec 19, 2009)

RootDKJ said:


> My brother is now reporting 6" in Haddonfield, NJ!


 and here is what it looks like:  http://www.state.nj.us/transportation/traffic/cameras/rt295/rt295_34.8.shtm


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## riverc0il (Dec 20, 2009)

Weather folks are mostly saying it is too early to call this event but seems like the pre-call consensus is not snow. Josh Fox on the Single Chair Blog sounded pretty pessimistic to say the least... though not willing to make a final call quite yet. I would hate to end 2009 with only two powder days for the season so far, well below my average at this point.


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## MommaBear (Dec 20, 2009)

Weathermen in CT calling for mix then change over to all rain here in CT.  :-(

I so hope they are wrong.


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## drjeff (Dec 20, 2009)

MommaBear said:


> Weathermen in CT calling for mix then change over to all rain here in CT.  :-(
> 
> I so hope they are wrong.



Gonna have to watch the epic battle of the warm vs. cold air for this one coming up too.  Kind of similar type storm tracks, with a HUGE "blocking" high up towards Greenland that will at some point of latitude work to kick this storm close to due East rather than let it parallel the coast up into the Canadain maritimes, also have to really watch where the storm 1st starts to turn North once it gets to the Gulf of Mexico.  Right now there's a mix in the models about both situations.  The further West the storm starts to turn North, the more warm airs gets into the Northeast and the more non frozen stuff we'll see.  

My gut looking at things right now, and this is something that seems to happen quite alot with the computer models and East coast storms, is that the cold air mass, CURRENTLY IN PLACE (and getting some reinforcement along about the 23rd/24th) will dominate more of this storm (especially for interior New England) more than the warm air trying to get in on the South and East side of the storm track and keep a good chunk of New England in the snow. 

 For some reason it just seems that the computer models with respect to East Coast storms like to over exaggerate the quickness that the presiding air mass associated with a storm (weather it be cold air displacing warm air or vice versa) will take over, and in the case of the air mass we have in place right now, it's a BIG, STRONG pool of cold air that is going to be tough to move out (especially with a storm that will likely be wanting to move more to the East than to the North as it approaches New England.

Right now, I'd say the places most likely to see non-snow precip for some duration of the storm will be the places that saw snow today.  Also, it's looking much more likely that the precipitation shield with this storm will reach further inland than todays storm,  but likely not far enough inland that Northern New England will large amounts of precip from this one either.

What to watch as we get towards Wednesday to see how this plays out will be a) how much of a reinforcing shot of cold air we get Tuesday/Wednesday b) How far West the storm will likely start to turn North from the Gulf states (the further east the better for snow in New England) and c) where the models are thinking the storm will basically stop heading North and start to head hard to the East.


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## Glenn (Dec 21, 2009)

Yeah, this could be interesting. But even up in VT, it looks like it may get above freezing. BLAH!


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## polski (Dec 21, 2009)

drjeff said:


> My gut looking at things right now, and this is something that seems to happen quite alot with the computer models and East coast storms, is that the cold air mass, CURRENTLY IN PLACE (and getting some reinforcement along about the 23rd/24th) will dominate more of this storm (especially for interior New England) more than the warm air trying to get in on the South and East side of the storm track and keep a good chunk of New England in the snow.


Hope you're right ... My gut is on every storm so far this year (and most last winter too?) the models move the track more to the west over time, which obviously would not be good here. But I admit I haven't had a chance to pay real attention to this system yet.


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## drjeff (Dec 21, 2009)

polski said:


> Hope you're right ... My gut is on every storm so far this year (and most last winter too?) the models move the track more to the west over time, which obviously would not be good here. But I admit I haven't had a chance to pay real attention to this system yet.



The models are REALLY trying to flatten out the big dip in the jetstream and turn this thing into a Great Lakes Cuttter, which would be BAD for snow in the Northeast.  What we need now is for some assemblance of the Eastern "kink" in the Jetstream that kept yesterdays storm from hugging the coast and kept snow to SE New England to remain, if that does, we could very well see a secondary low form off the VA/DE/NJ Coast (like we had anout 10 days ago) and then get a snow event here.

The funny thing about many of the models right now is they seem to just want to boot all this cold air out of here like it's nothing,  and thats just seems based on past events like it's going to be a much tougher thing to do, and if we don't get a secondary coastal low forming, this cold air could cause an icing event for much of interior New England 

Still about 1,000,000 variables in play right now


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## jaja111 (Dec 21, 2009)

mondeo said:


> Sweet, I'll be skiing the steeps of WNY!
> 
> Actually, I might try to hit up a NELSAP area or poach trails at Holiday Valley where the lifts aren't running yet. There just better be a big New Year's storm as well.



Uh... HV's been open for a few weeks now. We went Sunday night 12-13 and had at least 9 trails, after suffering through a few pale ales while it naired from 4-4:30pm. Nice spring conditions though! 

Last night (12-20) was pretty good. Little chewed up but some nice sugar piles on the trail edges. 23 trails open as of this post. Pray for good weather - the weekend looks good with colder temps. Combined with some good grooming it'll be decent for what you can get here. Xmas day - not so good: freezing nair followed by regular nair. We'll see.


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## nelsapbm (Dec 21, 2009)

Our local mets in BTV are calling for snow to rain....still a ways out though.


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## drjeff (Dec 22, 2009)

Starting to be a bit more model signs of the secondary low forming off the East Coast (still need to watch things closely as this storm basically even hasn't formed yet)

If we do get the secondary low formation, that should ensure that we'll get more frozen precip than wet precip over ski country, the issue will likely be though what type of frozen precip and for how long??


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## skidbump (Dec 23, 2009)

Fri nite into Sat freezing rain to rain heavy at times.


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## billski (Dec 23, 2009)

skidbump said:


> Fri nite into Sat freezing rain to rain heavy at times.


 Where?  That would seriously suck.


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## Glenn (Dec 23, 2009)

Looks messy in South Eastern VT. We plan on heading up Christmas Day night...so I'm glad to see this won't start until after mid night. They're calling for sleet and freezing rain. Blah! But it beats plain rain.


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## RootDKJ (Dec 23, 2009)

Doesn't look so good for Blue



> *Christmas Day: *A slight chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 1pm, then a chance of freezing rain between 1pm and 2pm, then a chance of rain after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. East wind between 6 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
> 
> *Friday Night: *Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
> 
> *Saturday: *Rain or freezing rain likely, becoming all rain after noon.  Cloudy, with a high near 42.   Chance of precipitation is 70%.


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## drjeff (Dec 23, 2009)

The best thing to do for this one as it gets closer to see how the chances for snow are is too look at the NOAA aviation weather forcasts, where you can see the temps at altitudes.  What to look for is how much warm air courtesy of the primary low that's headed to the Great Lakes gets in aloft prior to the secondary low forming off the coast and starting to draw some cold air back in aloft.  Lots of warm air above say 5,000ft and we'll be looking at a bunch of freezing rain as it's likely that the cold to some extent will stay locked into especially interior valleys.  If the warm air doesn't get too much below say 10,000 then we're more likely to see sleet than freezing rain, and if the cold air barely makes a dent below say 15,000 then our snow chances go up.

Gotta hope for an early formation of the secondary low off the coast to help keep the cold air in at all levels of the atmosphere!


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## SKIQUATTRO (Dec 23, 2009)

also looks like another system after christmas beginning to take shape...


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## highpeaksdrifter (Dec 23, 2009)

What do you guys think for the Northern ADKs and Greens? Reports I've seen are rain/sleet/snow to all snow on NOAA.


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## soulseller (Dec 23, 2009)

I've got my sights on Burke this weekend, seems to be the closest place that isn't calling for rain.


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## Moe Ghoul (Dec 23, 2009)

highpeaksdrifter said:


> What do you guys think for the Northern ADKs and Greens? Reports I've seen are rain/sleet/snow to all snow on NOAA.



I'm leaning towards the dax, gonna make a decision Sat, may head up Sunday.


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## tarponhead (Dec 23, 2009)

highpeaksdrifter said:


> What do you guys think for the Northern ADKs and Greens? Reports I've seen are rain/sleet/snow to all snow on NOAA.



Yeah. We are heading up to Whiteface Saturday. More then a little concerned about the icing. Probably leave dirty jerzey around noon and hope to clear Albany by 3PM thinking north of there icing will not be an issue???? Big travel day so hopefully NY DOT has their road crews making things right. Regardless, Monday and Tuesday look great temp wise for Whiteface. I'll take whatever Sunday gives us. Just good to be back there again.


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## highpeaksdrifter (Dec 24, 2009)

tarponhead said:


> Yeah. We are heading up to Whiteface Saturday. More then a little concerned about the icing. Probably leave dirty jerzey around noon and hope to clear Albany by 3PM thinking north of there icing will not be an issue???? Big travel day so hopefully NY DOT has their road crews making things right. Regardless, Monday and Tuesday look great temp wise for Whiteface. I'll take whatever Sunday gives us. Just good to be back there again.



We where going to head up Sat. too, but now we're going to leave Xmas nite after the extended family leaves to beat the icey weather. Drive safe.


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## tarponhead (Dec 25, 2009)

highpeaksdrifter said:


> We where going to head up Sat. too, but now we're going to leave Xmas nite after the extended family leaves to beat the icey weather. Drive safe.



You too.

Window still holding (based on NOAA). Woodstock area has freezing rain turning over to rain after 10AM. Glens Falls area has freezing rain turning to rain after 1PM. And  deeper back in the ADKs Au Sable forks) looks like strictly a sleet event after 7 AM. Will decide go/no-go tomorrow.

Merry Christmas all.


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## Warp Daddy (Dec 25, 2009)

Big Ice storm on the way here tonite  1/4 inch of ice followed by NAIR sleet and other crappy mix . Shades of out infamous 1998 ice storm --sure hope not that was really devastating .

Feel like crap today very heavy cold , Laryngitis  yuk   and the troops are all here  for a week . 

Gotta keep away from the grandkids so i don't infect them --------------------


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