# Weather Summary for the Next 7-10 Days: Cold is coming!



## powderfreak (Nov 12, 2008)

With no large snowfalls on the horizon, there is still some good news in
that a potentially major pattern change might take effect here starting with
the cold coming in early next week.  Before that time, we'll have two warm
storms to deal with...one tomorrow/tomorrow night and another one on
Saturday into Sunday.  These will be rain anyway we slice it.  

Now, the storm over the weekend will be responsible for a cold front that'll
swing through on Saturday night.  Behind this front is a very unseasonably
cold airmass that'll be aimed at the eastern third of the nation.  A ridge
along the west coast will cause buckling in the flow across the midwest and
eastern U.S. and a cold air dump will follow...meaning that basically the
cold being stored in Canada right now will be forced south into the
Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area and eventually east into our neck of
the woods by the middle of next week.

This cold will stick around at least through the weekend of the 22th
(opening weekend for most ski areas in our region) so starting Sunday night
we should be able to achieve 24 hour snowmaking ops through the opening
weekend.  No one should be in danger of not opening by the 22nd.  This cold
(H85's below -10C) will also allow the valleys to have their first
sub-freezing highs by the middle/end of next week.  

As far as snow goes, no major snowfalls are anticipated before the 20th. 
However, I could see quite a string of days next week where we get some sort
of measurable snowfall in the mountains.  With this strong cold air
advection crossing the Great Lakes region, there should be some weak
moisture to work with and I think we see off and on mountain snow showers
all next week with up to 3" possible in the favored western slopes on any
given day.  By this weekend, we should have a better idea of what time
periods will be more favorable for orographic snow showers...but in general
the pattern next week reeks of multiple small snowfalls from periodic snow
showers and squalls.

The only big event I'm watching is all the way out around the weekend of the
20th.  This is when the upper level trough looks to get into a favorable
position for east coast development.  It would be fun to start the "resort
season" with a solid snowfall on opening weekend...

Bottom line: Cold and some snow is on the way after we get another couple
rounds of rain on Thurs-Sun...but from Sunday afternoon onward its all
flakes through the 10 day.  

-Scott


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## roark (Nov 12, 2008)

Thanks Scott. 

Bring on the cold!


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## Glenn (Nov 12, 2008)

Great read! Thanks for posting.


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## Greg (Nov 12, 2008)

Sweet. Thank you Scott! :beer:


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## RootDKJ (Nov 12, 2008)

I'm learning so much about weather on AZ.  A girl in my class is a meterology major and I asked her when't the cold coming on monday night and she said she didn't know.  I'll have to ask her again next week.


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## riverc0il (Nov 12, 2008)

Lots of positive vibes to start this season off, very nice! Thanks for the update.


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## danny p (Nov 13, 2008)

again, thanks for the update.  your efforts are much appreciated!


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## WJenness (Nov 13, 2008)

Bring on the cold!

w00t.

-w


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## Warp Daddy (Nov 13, 2008)

Thanks for the  report Weathermeister !!

BRING IT !


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## billski (Nov 13, 2008)

RootDKJ said:


> I'm learning so much about weather on AZ.  A girl in my class is a meterology major and I asked her when't the cold coming on monday night and she said she didn't know.  I'll have to ask her again next week.



She must not be studying too hard.  Sounds like she'll end up on TV or working for weather.com


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## RootDKJ (Nov 13, 2008)

billski said:


> She must not be studying too hard.  Sounds like she'll end up on TV or working for weather.com


  probably


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## Greg (Nov 13, 2008)

*Freakin' Rad*

*6-10 Day Outlook:*











*8-14 Day Outlook:*


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## RootDKJ (Nov 13, 2008)

where did you get these image forecasts?


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## Greg (Nov 13, 2008)

RootDKJ said:


> where did you get these image forecasts?



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/


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## RootDKJ (Nov 13, 2008)

Greg said:


> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/


Really nice, thanks!


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## powderfreak (Nov 13, 2008)

Greg said:


> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/



Greg... that's a great tool to quickly glance at because the CPC basically uses the GFS ensemble mean to get an average height at 500mb and then calculates whether that's below or above normal.  These forecasts are much more likely to be correct than other CPC products.  Their monthly and seasonal maps are a joke.  

As we go out in time we'll start to lose the blue on that map as we relax back towards normal conditions around Thanksgiving...after that we should get a more permanent cold pattern for December.

-Scott


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## Johnskiismore (Nov 13, 2008)

I like the forecast, cold enough to blow out some snow!


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## bvibert (Nov 13, 2008)

Sweet!  I like the sound of things right now! :beer:


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## roark (Nov 13, 2008)

Since I'll be away from New England over Thanksgiving weekend I will personally guarantee a great dump will fall in my absence. Happens every time. Seriously, since moving to NH I've missed the biggest snowfall of the season every year. 

You're all welcome and can buy me a beer the next time you see me.


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## bvibert (Nov 14, 2008)

roark said:


> Since I'll be away from New England over Thanksgiving weekend I will personally guarantee a great dump will fall in my absence. Happens every time. Seriously, since moving to NH I've missed the biggest snowfall of the season every year.
> 
> You're all welcome and can buy me a beer the next time you see me.



Thanks, we appreciate it! :beer:


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## billski (Nov 14, 2008)

Greg said:


> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/



All of the northeast has just been blessed with a "slight chance of snow" beginning Sunday night.  Oh lordy, get the milk and bread now while there is still time 8):flame:


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Nov 14, 2008)

When do you guys think snowmaking will resume in New England???


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## Greg (Nov 14, 2008)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> When do you guys think snowmaking will resume in New England???



I would guess Monday morning.


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## Moe Ghoul (Nov 14, 2008)

Sunday nite.


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## mondeo (Nov 14, 2008)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> When do you guys think snowmaking will resume in New England???


 
When the temp drops below freezing.

snow-forecast is calling for freezing conditions to return to Killington Sunday morning-afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised if they have their snow making crews on call to start blowing as soon as possible, given that they're pushing for the earliest opening. Places that are waiting for the weekend may wait until Sunday night, given that they have a couple more days to make snow before they open stuff up.

That said, even Mount Snow should be seeing snowmaking conditions Sunday night. They might hold off a little until Monday when they start to see around the clock snowmaking conditions, but I'd expect just about everyone else to be going Sunday night. Heck, even Sundown is looking at freezing conditions around the clock starting Tuesday, potentially Monday at the top of its lofty peak!


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## Greg (Nov 14, 2008)

mondeo said:


> Heck, even Sundown is looking at freezing conditions around the clock starting Tuesday, potentially Monday at the top of its lofty peak!



I don't think it's likely, but Sundown is supposed to test the system this weekend. I've been told they're ready to pull the trigger any time after that.


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## Glenn (Nov 14, 2008)

Temps for southern VT look to be in the teens at night next week. Woohoo!


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## drjeff (Nov 15, 2008)

Glenn said:


> Temps for southern VT look to be in the teens at night next week. Woohoo!



Yup,  found that out when the folks that oversee the maintenance of the entire complex where my place by Mount Snow is,  called today saying that they noticed that the heat was out in my place when they went in to do a routine check of the carbon dioxide monitor today   Fortunately it was just a defective ignitor for the furnace which has been fixed already.


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## Glenn (Nov 15, 2008)

drjeff said:


> Yup,  found that out when the folks that oversee the maintenance of the entire complex where my place by Mount Snow is,  called today saying that they noticed that the heat was out in my place when they went in to do a routine check of the carbon dioxide monitor today   Fortunately it was just a defective ignitor for the furnace which has been fixed already.



I'm sure that made the condo fee for this month worth every last penny! Glad they found that out now! Yikes!


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## andrec10 (Nov 15, 2008)

*Hunter starts Monday!*

I have it from very reputable sources that Hunter will Fire up on Monday! :grin:The 22nd looks REAL good. Now they just gotta get the lodge back together...


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## drjeff (Nov 15, 2008)

Glenn said:


> I'm sure that made the condo fee for this month worth every last penny! Glad they found that out now! Yikes!



They're actually very good with the monitoring, since basically a problem in 1 unit can quickly become a problem for an entire building in some instances


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## RootDKJ (Nov 15, 2008)

I just looked at the Detailed Point Forecast for Blue Mountain, and much to my surprise:grin:

*Sunday*........................*Monday*                       .......................*Tuesday*
* Night *.........          *Monday*       ....*Night*         .........*Tuesday*     ....*Night*          ........*Wednesday*






....     
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




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...     
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




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Slight Chc    ..Chance...        ...Chance       .......Chance       ......Mostly         .......Mostly
Snow..........Snow           .........Snow          ..........Snow          ........Cloudy         .......Sunny
Hi 42°F        ......Lo 29°F        ......Lo 26°F       .......Hi 34°F       .....Lo 20°F        ......Hi 36°F

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...0791016&site=phi&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Nov 15, 2008)

RootDKJ said:


> I just looked at the Detailed Point Forecast for Blue Mountain, and much to my surprise:grin:
> 
> *Sunday*........................*Monday*                       .......................*Tuesday*
> * Night *.........          *Monday*       ....*Night*         .........*Tuesday*     ....*Night*          ........*Wednesday*
> ...




I don't think I'm ready..that's freaking cold..and right now it's 70 degrees and I have mo-fo ball balls..lol


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## RootDKJ (Nov 15, 2008)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> I don't think I'm ready..that's freaking cold..and right now it's 70 degrees and I have mo-fo ball balls..lol


70 here too and I wish I wore shorts today. Sun is starting to come out and there's a nice breeze blowing. Thing I'm going to bbq later.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Nov 15, 2008)

RootDKJ said:


> 70 here too and I wish I wore shorts today. Sun is starting to come out and there's a nice breeze blowing. Thing I'm going to bbq later.



I was wearing sandals when I was out doing errands..time to look at accuweather and see when the front is coming through...


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## LonghornSkier (Nov 15, 2008)

Is it just me or have the night temperatures forcasted risen since yesterday?


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## bvibert (Nov 17, 2008)

It's snowing lightly in NW CT right now!


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