# The Official 3/18 - 3/21 Storm Discussion Thread



## Greg (Mar 18, 2008)

Winter Storm Watch for Central-Northern Vermont:



> URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
> 350 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008
> 
> ...


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## danny p (Mar 18, 2008)

fingers are crossed.......hearing more and more that the following weeks will be more dependable cold and favorable precip.


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## gladerider (Mar 18, 2008)

i am seeing conflicting forecasts for north country. NWS says rain wednesday night and accuweather says snow. i found NWS very unreliable the past couple storms. hope they are wrong this time also.


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## loafer89 (Mar 18, 2008)

Warm air and rain will make a strong punch norward to the Canadian border. Most of New England will see rain/freezing rain for a while on wednesday.


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## loafer89 (Mar 18, 2008)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
753 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN MIX WITH AND
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BEGINING AS A MIX OVER THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SPREADING NORTH AND EAST. COLD LOW
LEVELS TONIGHT FAVORABLE FOR SNOW/SLEET...THEN CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN BY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER MOVES IN. ONE
THING IN OUR FAVOR AGAINST FREEZING RAIN IS LACK OF BLOCKING HIGH
TO OUR NORTH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS OVER ENTIRE AREA. LOW
QPF (0.15-0.25) OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WED. BUFKIT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TIL AROUND 12Z
TOMORROW, *THEN WARM AIR COMES ON LIKE GANGBUSTERS. WILL BE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS WARM LAYER ALOFT MOVES IN
BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP. **SFC** HIGH HAS MOVED OFF THE
COAST...AND WITH NO BLOCKING **HI** TO N WE`LL OPEN UP TO SOUTHERLY
FIOW AND **SFC** COLD WILL SCOUR OUT A LITTLE EASIER.
*
HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO
WARRANT CONTINUATION OF ADVISORIES FOR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. IN
ADDITION...CHANGED THE WINTER WEATHER WATCH IN EASTERN VERMONT TO
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT TUESDAY...MAIN PORTION OF WINTER STORM WILL BE
FOCUSED ON WED/THURS. WARM AIR WILL STREAM NORTH IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...WITH CHANGEOVER TO RAIN THERE EARLIEST. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ENDS 15Z FROM WESTERN SLOPES WESTWARD INTO ADIRONDACKS
AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. IN EASTERN VT WHERE GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL
BLOCK WARM AIR LONGER...SOUTHEAST VT KEEPS THE ADVISORY TIL
18Z...AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM EXPIRING 21Z.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY WEDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER BY THIS TIME WE`LL BE IN THE WARMER
AIR...AND ANY ICE LOADING ACCUMULATED OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
LESSENING. CENTER OF SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT LATE TUESDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME...WITH SFC LOW
FURTHER S AND WEST IN THE NAM...AND FASTER/FURTHER NORTH IN GFS.
LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILE FROM NAM LOOKED TOO COLD GIVEN STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SO GENERALLY USED THE GFS DATA.

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING BACK OVER TO SNOW AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL NW
JET THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUST POTENTIAL. HIGH RH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL
CONTINUE SNOWFALL IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. OPTED TO TREAT
TONIGHTS AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAYS WINTER WEATHER AS TWO
SEPARATE EVENTS...SO WE WOULDN`T HAVE ADVISORIES FOR 36 HOURS WITH
A 12-18HR PERIOD IN THE MIDDLE OF WARM TEMPS. NOT FORECASTING
ADVISORY LEVEL PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR POST FRONTAL WRAP AROUND PRECIP IN NORTHERN/NORTHEAST VERMONT.
WILL RE-EVALUATE TOMORROW AFTER TONIGHTS WEATHER WINDS DOWN.


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## Zand (Mar 18, 2008)

Was lightly snowing in Sturbridge about 45 minutes ago.. back here at home it hasn't started yet but I imagine it's only a matter of time. I was surprised to see it... it's 40 degrees out. Wet-bulb must be real low.


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## loafer89 (Mar 18, 2008)

Light snow is falling here in Coventry and it's 34.5F


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## Johnskiismore (Mar 19, 2008)

Just started to snow in this area, there's a dusting on the ground.  PLease stay snow!


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## riverc0il (Mar 19, 2008)

Johnskiismore said:


> PLease stay snow!


Not going to happen, unfortunately. Our only hope here is for the backside to bring us snow after the NCP.


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## salsgang (Mar 19, 2008)

While today / tonight looks like a washout for everyone - Looks like the possibility for significant snow on the backside of this storm for the Maine Mountains. From NWS Gray:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WHILE MODELS DISAGREE ON SOME SPECIFICS...THE BOTTOM LINE IS
LARGELY THE SAME. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER DEVELOPING THE LOW AND
STRONGER...WITH THE NAM IN THE MIDDLE...AND THE UKMET/GEM WEAKER.
THE 12Z EUROPEAN LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS. FOR NOW USE NAM/GFS
BLEND...GENERALLY EXPECTED A 975 - 980 MB LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. HOWEVER...WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST...TWO THINGS
LOOK FAIRLY CERTAIN. IT WILL BE WINDY...AND THERE WILL BE UPSLOPE
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

1) WINDS: WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE
SPECIFICS...BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 40 KT WINDS AT
925 MB...WHICH LINE UP WITH SURFACE WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECT
SOME HINT OF A NIGHTTIME INVERSION TO LIMIT WIND GUSTS A BIT
(STILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE). EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS
ON FRIDAY. NAM BUFKIT INDICATING THESE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX
DOWN...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THE KEY TO PROVIDING THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO MIX THINGS DOWN. SYNOPTIC SET UP IS ONE
WHICH CAN PRODUCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. STILL A WAYS OFF FOR
A WATCH...BUT IT WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR FUTURE SHIFTS. WINDS SHOULD
DROP OFF FRIDAY NIGHT RATHER QUICKLY.

2) UPSLOPE SNOW: THIS SYSTEM IS A CLASSIC SET-UP FOR SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE SNOW. 925 MB WINDS SIT AT 35 TO 45 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WHILE 925 MB RH IS LARGELY ABOVE 80 PERCENT. STALLED
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONSISTENT WILL LOCAL RESEARCH ON UPSLOPE
EVENTS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY..*.WITH FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY SEEING GREATER THAN
A FOOT OF SNOW BY THE TIME THIS EVENT IS OVER..*.WHILE THE VALLEY
TOWNS MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE INCHES. WILL CARRY WINTER STORM
WARNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE EVENT. WHILE THE TOWNS MAY DODGE THE WORST OF IT...TRAVEL
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST.


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## thetrailboss (Mar 19, 2008)

Snow so far here in Central Vermont.


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## loafer89 (Mar 19, 2008)

Backside snowfall forecast:

*Storm Total Snow Forecast* 







_Click anywhere on the image to zoom in_


WWUS41 KBTV 190751WSWBTVURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT351 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008...MIXED PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHCOUNTRY TODAY....PRECIPITATION ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OFMIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. AS WARMERAIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLYCHANGE OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SLEET ANDPOCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNINGWILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING. LIKEWISE...ONGOINGSNOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 3 AM WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND THENTO RAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...A COLDERAIR MASS WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT. SNOW THROUGH LATE MORNINGWILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH LATETHIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZINGRAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT THREAT APPEARSTO BE LIMITED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.ALTHOUGH NOT SPECIFICALLY ADDRESSED IN THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHERADVISORY AREAS...AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER CENTRAL NEWENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEBACK OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTEDON THURSDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THEWEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERNADIRONDACKS...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ISPOSSIBLE. AN ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FORTHURSDAY FOR THESE AREAS PRONE TO UPSLOPE SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERNNEW YORK AND VERMONT.


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## loafer89 (Mar 19, 2008)

Jay Peak looks like the place to be on friday:

FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OROGRAPHIC SNOW POTENTIAL FOR OUR MTNS AS
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS ALONG THE ME COAST THURSDAY
AFTN. WITH H5 TROF REMAINING OVER NRN NY AT 18Z THU AND THEN
CLOSING OFF OVER CENTRAL ME BY 00Z FRI...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN
LOW-MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW REGIME IS IMPRESSIVE. NWLY 850MB FLOW OF
45-50KTS IS PROGGED BY GFS AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY THE NRN GREEN
MTNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE...*WITH NRN GREENS **LIKELY** SEEING 6 TO 12
INCHES OF SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY JAY PEAK **VCNTY** BY NOON ON FRIDAY*.
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW...BUT WILL DEFER AT THIS TIME TO ALLOW MIXED
PRECIPITATION CONCERNS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE STORM TO PASS.

THE STRONG NWLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SFC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 EXPECTED AREAWIDE. GUSTS
TO 35 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO CUTOFF NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY. HAVE
INCLUDED THESE GUSTY WINDS IN CURRENT FCST.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Mar 19, 2008)

Wow it looks like Friday is going to be Epic at Sugarbush for the AZ day...As of last night there was 97 inches at the Mount Mansfield stake...and Stowe was reporting 3-5 inches new this morning..I'm sure it's changing over there now but they should get another foot on the backside..12 more days until I'm skiing Stowe..woo hoo..such deep coverage..Holla


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## ski_resort_observer (Mar 19, 2008)

Here at the Bush the two local forecasters are calling for 8-12" of snow from the "backside nor'easter after some mixed stuff on Wednesday. This time of year elevation can make a big diference in what type of precip we get. 

Last Wednesday, for example,  it was mixed at the base but on the upper mountain it was all snow. What happens in Burlington has nothing to do with what we get in the mountains.


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## Johnskiismore (Mar 19, 2008)

About an inch and a half so far, holding my breath that the imminent rain will turn back to snow in the end!


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## Greg (Mar 19, 2008)

ski_resort_observer said:


> Here at the Bush the two local forecasters are calling for 8-12" of snow from the "backside nor'easter after some mixed stuff on Wednesday. This time of year elevation can make a big diference in what type of precip we get.
> 
> Last Wednesday, for example,  it was mixed at the base but on the upper mountain it was all snow. What happens in Burlington has nothing to do with what we get in the mountains.



Let's hope. Let's also hope the winds don't take the upper lifts out of commission. I could be happy lapping the CR chair of Heaven's Gate on Friday. You coming out SRO?

Josh Fox seems a tad upbeat:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2008/03/fridays-our-best-shot-for-powder-day.html


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## JD (Mar 19, 2008)

Great stuff covering up the hardpack today in central VT.  Fluff on top will ski very nice, even if it isn't that deep.  Burke would be a good call for tomorrow I think.  Bring the skins though, wind hold very possible I think.


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## kingslug (Mar 19, 2008)

Guess I'll be missing ANOTHER epic day in Vermont.


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## riverc0il (Mar 19, 2008)

2" here in Ashland/Plymouth featuring all snow and no rain all day. Starting to get rather wet snow, perhaps a small change over to rain coming soon, but much much better than I had hoped for this area. Considered grabbing an earned run after work but decided two inches of wet snow was not worth the effort considering I am looking to go three days in a row this weekend.

Might have to hit Jay on Friday instead of Bush. Tough call but that map up above suggests Jay may really get nailed. We'll see how things look Thursday night as reports come in. Game on!!!!!


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## kingdom-tele (Mar 19, 2008)

Riv- 

don't underestimate the joy in two inches of snow - besides 2" windblown means boot top powder drifts, at least thats what I found this morning up here

and bring your skins if your going to jay - calliing for heavy wind with the upslope


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## riverc0il (Mar 19, 2008)

I am fine with 2" with powder drifts... but the snow is saturated wet snow here not powder. Pretty manky and several degrees warmer than Burke (lower elevation too). The wind call is mostly for Thursday, right? Haven't seen indication of high winds that would shut down operations for Friday, unless I mis-read?

Edit: Just re-read the NWS posting above which suggests high winds continuing into Friday. Would like some more detail and clarification on that issue including time lines. Those same winds would knock out a lot of lifts along the spine if they continue into Friday. Packing the skins is a good idea, regardless as I have learned this season.


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## loafer89 (Mar 19, 2008)

I posted the wind comments so everyone would be aware of the wind conditions for friday. It looks worse for Maine with 45mph + wind forecast for the Bethel area.


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## nelsapbm (Mar 19, 2008)

NWS in Burlington is calling for 6-12" tonight for the Northern Greens & ADKs.


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## loafer89 (Mar 19, 2008)

It looks like the NWS scaled back the upper limits of it's snowfall forecast and pushed the heavier accumulations further south:







_Click anywhere on the image to zoom in_


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## loafer89 (Mar 19, 2008)

Higher summit's forecast for friday, sounds tropical:

.FRIDAY...SUMMITS IN AND OUT OF THE CLOUDS. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. NORTHWEST
*WINDS 50 TO 55 MPH.*


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## powderfreak (Mar 19, 2008)

This is the best looking
upslope event this winter based on 00z/06z NWP guidance.  Per BTV CSTAR
research, the three main keys to a memorable upslope event are: 

1) H85 winds in excess of 25kts out of the northwest with RH at 90+%
2) Duration of 12 hours or longer.
3) Strong CAA at H85

We've got all of those covered but the real memorable events, in my
experience, are when we get the 50kts at H85 under a deep cyclonic flow...we
actually maintain a strong NW flow up to H5 on Friday night as the system
becomes vertically stacked over the Maritimes.  RH values are in excess of
90% at H7 across northern Vermont on the GFS and NAM progs well into Friday.
 The vorticity with the cut-off upper level low is sickening over northern
Vermont on Friday...its strong enough to cause a 110kt WNW wind a H5 over
BTV.  The low level temps crash and the strong CAA should place us in a
rapidly falling temperature regime Thursday night and Friday...we fall to
-15C at ~4,500ft.  Snow should continue through Friday afternoon at which
time precipitable water values fall below a quarter inch as deeper moisture
lifts northeast.


So my call for this is...

Rain changes to snow tomorrow in the early morning hours with bouts of light
snow through noon.  Then steady and heavier snow will develop across the
Green Mountain spine from Sugarbush to Jay Peak tomorrow afternoon. 
Snowfall rates could exceed 1" per hour for a 6 hour period on Thursday
evening/early Friday AM.  Snow continues Friday before tapering off from
south to north along the spine during Friday afternoon.

Totals...1-2 feet Jay Peak...10-16" Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs...8-14" Sugarbush,
Mad River Glen...5-10" Killington.

-Scott

ps: Widespread wind hold on Thursday afternoon and Friday.


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## andyzee (Mar 19, 2008)

No offense intended, but I think it's kind of funny how everyone is looking for the best report. Now, it would be nice if the weather listened to reports. :lol:


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## 2knees (Mar 19, 2008)

thanks for the information powderfreak.


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## highpeaksdrifter (Mar 19, 2008)

andyzee said:


> No offense intended, but I think it's kind of funny how everyone is looking for the best report. Now, it would be nice if the weather listened to reports. :lol:



What else can you do, you gotta have hope. Anyways there have been a number of times this season I was expecting less then good conditions only to show up and be pleasently suprised.

Friday I'm worried about the high winds, but the rest of the weekend looks good.


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## MichaelJ (Mar 20, 2008)

Weather Underground is forecasting 6-12 inches of additional accumulation on Friday all the way from Waterville Valley to Sugarloaf...


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## thetrailboss (Mar 20, 2008)

Pretty much another bust here in Central Vermont.  I hate this pattern....


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## danny p (Mar 20, 2008)

thetrailboss said:


> Pretty much another bust here in Central Vermont.  I hate this pattern....



isn't it supposed to reform and dump this afternoon/evening?  Maybe I misread the forecast.


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## nelsapbm (Mar 20, 2008)

Ya....the bulk of the storm is supposed to come later today and overnight. It's dumping in Burlington right now, but it's not really sticking - a very heavy, wet snow.


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## Greg (Mar 20, 2008)

thetrailboss said:


> Pretty much another bust here in Central Vermont.  I hate this pattern....





danny p said:


> isn't it supposed to reform and dump this afternoon/evening?  Maybe I misread the forecast.



And I thought the bigger snow totals were due to upslope snows at elevation along the spine...


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## ski_resort_observer (Mar 20, 2008)

Greg said:


> Let's hope. Let's also hope the winds don't take the upper lifts out of commission. I could be happy lapping the CR chair of Heaven's Gate on Friday. You coming out SRO?
> 
> Josh Fox seems a tad upbeat:
> 
> http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2008/03/fridays-our-best-shot-for-powder-day.html



yup..he is...a couple of weeks ago he predicted 30" and we got 12"....not complaining. I guess when you have little snowmaking you have to be optomistic...:wink:   That's why I like Roger Hill on WDEV, "broadcasting from the summit of Sugarbush".

Unfortunately, we are understaffed so I will be in the shop at Gatehouse on Friday. As I mentioned on another thread, any questions or issues feel free to stop by. 583-6530.

This morning we got a 1" in the valley but 4-6" on the mountain, all the upper lifts are on windhold. No big surprise there. It is snowing right now.


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## Angus (Mar 20, 2008)

although March has been a disappointment snow-wise at least these monster storms have been a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. I don't think the snow depths have suffered particularly much.


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## JPTracker (Mar 20, 2008)

riverc0il said:


> Edit: Just re-read the NWS posting above which suggests high winds continuing into Friday. Would like some more detail and clarification on that issue including time lines. Those same winds would knock out a lot of lifts along the spine if they continue into Friday. Packing the skins is a good idea, regardless as I have learned this season.



Check out this NWS Site. It shows the high winds continuing until 7:00 pm Friday.


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## ski_resort_observer (Mar 20, 2008)

Angus said:


> although March has been a disappointment snow-wise at least these monster storms have been a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. I don't think the snow depths have suffered particularly much.



Very true.....I think snow coverage for most of the hills in northern NE and the Daks have either remained the same or slightly increased. Nothing shows this better than the snow stake on Mt Mansfield
http://www.uvm.edu/skivt-l/?Page=depths.php


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## loafer89 (Mar 20, 2008)

Rader shows a hefty band of snow moving straight for the Greem Mountains of Northern Vermont.

Of course now that I am skiing in Vermont this weekend, Sugarloaf will have a blizzard:-?


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## polski (Mar 20, 2008)

ski_resort_observer said:


> yup..he is...a couple of weeks ago he predicted 30" and we got 12"....not complaining.



For the record, with that one Fox predicted total storm accum of 18-30 and IMO we didn't fall too far short of the bottom of that admittedly very wide range. I was at MRG both days and thought the official mountain report the first morning of "about a  foot" may have been a slight underreport (at the least it was curiously vague), though I didn't try to take measurements myself. By late that night another couple inches had fallen. I'd say 15" was a reasonable storm total. (I now see Fox settled on 15" as the final, in a comment following up the above-linked post.)

Also, his forecasts for the early season wound up being pretty wildly pessimistic -- Nov/Dec shaped up a lot better than he had expected. (In November he forecast a season total for MRG total of < 220" and as of this morning they report "Season Snowfall to Date: 193 - 263".") So I can't say I see a positive bias in his forecasts. Whether he does better than a coin flip, who knows, but at least I _feel_ smarter reading his stuff ;-)

I will note a glaring omission in his latest report though, no mention of wind today/tomorrow.


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## KingM (Mar 20, 2008)

Polski,

Yes, he gave one of the most pessimistic season forecasts I've seen last November. Since it's been an above average year, the difference between my low expectations and what we got have been huge. And the base is still there with some fresh snow coming down, so I think we're going to finish strong, too.


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## ski_resort_observer (Mar 20, 2008)

Yup....tomorrow is the first day of spring! :lol:

Even after last weeks ice storm and the trees were still laden with ice the skiing was awesome at Mt Ellen. I think TB was out there also and reported good skiing as well.


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## Johnskiismore (Mar 20, 2008)

Snowing steadily here right now!  Keep it coming, NWS states 2-4 tonight, and another 2-4 tomorrow for Northern New Hampshire, please keep true!!


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## JPTracker (Mar 20, 2008)

From Jays Snow Report

**WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY PM**

27F and Heavy snow here at 1:15pm.  4-6" on the ground since just after midnight and no real honking winds yet.  Forecasters are calling for the possibility of more than 20" of snow by tomorrow evening.


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## Johnskiismore (Mar 20, 2008)

Twenty inches!!:-o  Well, that beats the crap out our lousy eight!!;-)


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## KingM (Mar 20, 2008)

It's been snowing nicely in the MRV all day. It's about 33-34 degrees in the valley, so it hasn't accumulated much, but I'm guessing they're picking up some accumulation on the mountain.


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## riverc0il (Mar 20, 2008)

UUUUmmmm......................
http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/conditions.php

Summit winds on Mount Washington are just under 100 MPH with a 122.6 peak. Wind is really rocking right now here in central NH. I am less than optimistic for riding lifts tomorrow.


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## JD (Mar 21, 2008)

Who knows where the snow will end up. Just came over the hillf from Waitsfield.  Snowing and WINDY.  Conditions tomorrow 0-20 inches.


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## campgottagopee (Mar 21, 2008)

2nd day of spring and I just got done snowblowing my driveway here in CNY----looks like snowbanks for the first day of trout season here


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## MichaelJ (Mar 21, 2008)

Mt Washington is reporting steady winds of almost 100mph, air temps below zero, wind chill around -50°F. Not a day to be up there, nor do I think I'd want to be at Wildcat today. Summit chair's on wind hold and the terrain must be getting blown to shreds.


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## nelsapbm (Mar 21, 2008)

I just heard a guy on the radio who called in from Eden (Route 100 between Stowe & Jay) and he reported 16" at his house. It's amazing, 'cause there is NOTHING in the Champlain Valley. The winds are really whipping though.


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## JPTracker (Mar 21, 2008)

Slopeside at Jay right now. It is snowing heavily and the wind is causing white out conditions. No way upper mountain lifts will run. I would no be surprised if even some of the lower mountain lifts close. Jay says 16" - 18". Had to walk through knee deep drifts to get to our condo.  Driving up last night was crazy. White out conditions and 91 was closed for a while while they cleared an accident. Probably not much better this morning.


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## deadheadskier (Mar 21, 2008)

Just checked Sugarbush's report.  Apparently only 6 of 16 lifts going, Mt Ellen basically closed, but Castlerock is turning.  With 6 to 10 inches of fresh and still snowing, I'm sure it will still be a good AZ outing even with limited terrain.  I know I could stay happy off of Castlerock for a full day with fresh snow.


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## JD (Mar 21, 2008)

Got he call from Mansfield.  18 inches in the woods.  Massive wind load on the backside of the greens basically.  Everything blew into the east northeast facing terrain.  Eden is a massive snow catch.


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## MRGisevil (Mar 21, 2008)

Does anyone know what the wind is supposed to be like in Northern VT tomorrow?


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## noski (Mar 21, 2008)

MRGisevil said:


> Does anyone know what the wind is supposed to be like in Northern VT tomorrow?


For north central VT, after today, the winds should die down and be more breezy 10-20mph. We'll see some sun and flurries. I had a foot of fresh pow at  my house in the MRV at 1700'. About half that on the valley floor.


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## MRGisevil (Mar 21, 2008)

noski said:


> For north central VT, after today, the winds should die down and be more breezy 10-20mph. We'll see some sun and flurries. I had a foot of fresh pow at  my house in the MRV at 1700'. About half that on the valley floor.



Nice, thanks!


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## MichaelJ (Mar 21, 2008)

I read an official report this morning saying that 302, the Kanc, and pretty much any road above 1500' in the Whites in New Hampshire will likely be impassable today.


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## loafer89 (Mar 21, 2008)

The notches of New Hamsphire did well, Balsams had 12" overnight and it was still snowing when we left at 4pm with light fluffy powder to play in all day long.


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## MichaelJ (Mar 21, 2008)

Bretton Saturday is gonna be fun


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