# 17/18 First dartboard



## Not Sure (Jun 26, 2017)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=7


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## Glenn (Jun 27, 2017)

Never hurts to start planning ahead!


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## dlague (Jun 27, 2017)

So warmer almost everywhere especially out west and precipitation is anyone's guess.

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## Jully (Jun 27, 2017)

Sad looking forecast for the east if it ends up being warmer, but so ridiculously early. This year was already pretty warm IMO. Plenty of times for things to change!


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## Jcb890 (Jul 28, 2017)

Jully said:


> Sad looking forecast for the east if it ends up being warmer, but so ridiculously early. This year was already pretty warm IMO. Plenty of times for things to change!


It looks to me like the Northeast shows as equal compared to almost the whole rest of the US being above.


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## Glenn (Jul 28, 2017)

The best option is just waiting to see what happens. Year after year, no one know what will happen until we start getting into the actual winter.


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## dlague (Jul 29, 2017)

Jcb890 said:


> It looks to me like the Northeast shows as equal compared to almost the whole rest of the US being above.


Above normal is less likely to be an issue in the east IMO since it can get super cold some days.  The West on the other hand could be bad since the winter is often in the 15 to 35 degree range which if above normal might make the weather to warm.  We will have wait and see.  However the weather cycles in the east seem to fluctuate a lot.

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## Not Sure (Jul 30, 2017)

Wondering how all the precip on the East coast is going to factor into the Winter pattern ? Way above normal !


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## JimG. (Jul 30, 2017)

Glenn said:


> The best option is just waiting to see what happens. Year after year, no one know what will happen until we start getting into the actual winter.



Too logical.

After looking at the link provided it is clear to me that winter is cancelled this year.


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## bdfreetuna (Aug 4, 2017)

Already planning based on this.


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## jack97 (Aug 4, 2017)

last year, we had a drought, local watering bans and concerns if the snow making ponds will have enough water. Here's this year drought conditions. So far so good, I haven't brought out the water sprinklers, may hold off since the lawn is still in good shape.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast


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## Abubob (Aug 17, 2017)

jack97 said:


> last year, we had a drought, local watering bans and concerns if the snow making ponds will have enough water. Here's this year drought conditions. So far so good, I haven't brought out the water sprinklers, may hold off since the lawn is still in good shape.
> 
> http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast



Last year's drought situation:


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## Abubob (Aug 17, 2017)

This year's drought situation: Actually looks like drought redeveloping along the coast.


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## dlague (Aug 17, 2017)

Abubob said:


> This year's drought situation: Actually looks like drought redeveloping along the coast.



Well at least it is not where the snow making ponds are.


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## dlague (Aug 18, 2017)

Whonis goo g to be right?  This one contradicts Farmers Almanac a bit.

http://www.onthesnow.com/news/a/628002/17-18-ski-season-long-range-weather-forecast


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## Abubob (Aug 18, 2017)

dlague said:


> Whonis goo g to be right?  This one contradicts Farmers Almanac a bit.
> 
> http://www.onthesnow.com/news/a/628002/17-18-ski-season-long-range-weather-forecast



Onthesnow's prediction is for "normal" snowfall in the northeast. That doesn't contradict Farmer's because all they said was "cold and snowy". Well that's "normal"!


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## dlague (Aug 18, 2017)

Abubob said:


> Onthesnow's prediction is for "normal" snowfall in the northeast. That doesn't contradict Farmer's because all they said was "cold and snowy". Well that's "normal"!



good one!


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## ALLSKIING (Aug 18, 2017)

Long island got about 4 inches of rain today so that map should change pretty quick.

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## jack97 (Aug 19, 2017)

Weatherbell's first guess.....

https://www.weatherbell.com/prelim-winter-2017-18


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## Glenn (Aug 21, 2017)

It's been a very wet summer in SoVT; at least in our area. We've had some serious deluges in the last few months. One partially washed away a stone staircase on our property. Huge difference from last summer.


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## BenedictGomez (Aug 24, 2017)

bdfreetuna said:


> Already planning based on this.



If recent NOAA long-range winter history is a guide, do the exact opposite.


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## BenedictGomez (Sep 8, 2017)

JB out today saying global models are starting to align for another La Nina winter.  Hopefully that pans out.


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## Abubob (Sep 8, 2017)

jack97 said:


> Weatherbell's first guess.....
> 
> https://www.weatherbell.com/prelim-winter-2017-18



Look how warm the arctic is. That can't be good in the long run. Eh ... one winter at a time. Looking "normal" in the NE so far.


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## Jully (Sep 8, 2017)

Abubob said:


> Look how warm the arctic is. That can't be good in the long run. Eh ... one winter at a time. Looking "normal" in the NE so far.



Feels colder than last September in NE at least! Would love for this to continue into a cool October.


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## skiberg (Sep 12, 2017)

I would not wish for La Nina or El Nino. Average winter is best. Studies have shown that their is not a statistical correlation between either weather event and more snow. If we have a good winter during a particular event, their is no guarantee it will happen again in the future. We are just as likely have a  bad ski season in a La Nina year as we are El Nino. You also have to account for all the other factors that influence weather, like Artic Oscillation, Blocking etc. Both El Nino and La Nina are not solely predictive of anything as far as snowfall in NE. I am no weather expert, but once I actually read the snowfall studies relative to El Nino/La Nina I learned a lot.


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## slatham (Sep 13, 2017)

All El Nino's and La Nina's are not created equal, both in strength and structure. While a strong La Nina has correlated with warm/snowless winters in the NE, a weak to even moderate does not. Also, there's research indicating that one key is the difference between zone 3.4 (near date line) and 1.2 (close to SA coast). Warmer 3.4 vs 1.2 is good, the opposite is bad. One reason for last winter not being as good as it could have been is 1.2 warmed significantly (amongst other factors, like the central pacific cooling and the strength of the pacific jet etc) . The winter of 13/14 (or was it 14/15?) had a strong warm signal in 3.4 and it was epic......


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## Not Sure (Sep 13, 2017)

slatham said:


> All El Nino's and La Nina's are not created equal, both in strength and structure. While a strong La Nina has correlated with warm/snowless winters in the NE, a weak to even moderate does not. Also, there's research indicating that one key is the difference between zone 3.4 (near date line) and 1.2 (close to SA coast). Warmer 3.4 vs 1.2 is good, the opposite is bad. One reason for last winter not being as good as it could have been is 1.2 warmed significantly (amongst other factors, like the central pacific cooling and the strength of the pacific jet etc) . The winter of 13/14 (or was it 14/15?) had a strong warm signal in 3.4 and it was epic......



So what your saying is El Nino's and La Nina's are free to identify with what ever gender they wish ?:grin:


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## slatham (Sep 14, 2017)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> So what your saying is El Nino's and La Nina's are free to identify with what ever gender they wish ?:grin:



Ha, yes, and may change gender in the middle of the winter too.


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## Not Sure (Sep 16, 2017)

https://www.weatherbell.com/#featured

Saturday summary FF to 8:32 La Nina developing


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## BenedictGomez (Sep 16, 2017)

It's true that La Nina is no "guarantee" for a snowier NE winter, but it is conducive to slightly colder than normal, and more importantly, a higher conveyor belt, both important things conducive to snow where you want it.  Two decent signals, and I'll take that over poor signals.


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## Los (Sep 17, 2017)

Jully said:


> Feels colder than last September in NE at least! Would love for this to continue into a cool October.



It's been a heatwave ever since and it looks like that will continue to the end of the month. 


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## Jully (Sep 17, 2017)

Los said:


> It's been a heatwave ever since and it looks like that will continue to the end of the month.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Yeah... summer has returned in full force.


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## dlague (Sep 17, 2017)

We had that a week or two ago and now has cooled down in the mountains and snowed at A Basin and other high elevations.  The cold front we had this weekend is likely headed your way.

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## chuckstah (Sep 17, 2017)

dlague said:


> We had that a week or two ago and now has cooled down in the mountains and snowed at A Basin and other high elevations.  The cold front we had this weekend is likely headed your way.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930V using AlpineZone mobile app


Nope! 

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## dlague (Sep 18, 2017)

chuckstah said:


> Nope!
> 
> Sent from my LGMS345 using AlpineZone mobile app



you are right  http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Wx...oomLevel=4&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0055 

the cold air dropping in from Canada in the west is doing just that and the jet stream is then pushing the cooler air back up into Canada over Ontario - looks like the warmth in the Northeast is attributed to all of the Caribbean weather and the Gulf.

http://people.com/human-interest/fall-2017-hot-meteorologists-predict/  this is not good for Killington - but who knows they always pull things off!

However it is coming according to Open Snow


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## mriceyman (Sep 19, 2017)

Can we get open snow banned from any talk about weather


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## ss20 (Sep 19, 2017)

Both the GFS and the Euro have been showing a decent cold snap next weekend.   Cold enough to blow out the mice, perhaps.
NOAA doesn't buy it on their 8-14 day temperature probability outlook. But hey, it's something...

Spetember/October is pretty much the only time I look out 200+ hours...


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## dlague (Sep 19, 2017)

mriceyman said:


> Can we get open snow banned from any talk about weather
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Why I think they do a decent job at least for the Rockies!


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## BenedictGomez (Sep 19, 2017)

Looks like it's going to be unseasonably warm until the very end of September or very beginning of October.  

Blame Jose & Maria.


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## Cornhead (Sep 20, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Blame Jose & Maria.


You know Trump does.[emoji12] 


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## slatham (Oct 3, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> Looks like it's going to be unseasonably warm until the very end of September or very beginning of October.
> 
> Blame Jose & Maria.



Other way around. Those storms are a product of the pattern.


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## Cat in January (Oct 5, 2017)

On the bright side last Fall was quite mild and we had a good winter.


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## bigbog (Oct 10, 2017)

Once I get to complaining a little about the warmth so late in Fall I start to remember some of the warm Octobers northeast of Troy, NY(home) and into southern VT...back in the 60s and a totally green lawn, in the high 70s, on Thanksgiving Day in ...64' I think.

*Yeah Cat, once one would get over to Skowhegan and Kingfield....the white stuff started to really accumulate.


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## VTKilarney (Oct 10, 2017)

I'm enjoying this warm weather.  Winter will come soon enough.


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## Jcb890 (Oct 10, 2017)

This warm weather and humidity sucks.  If I wanted mid-70s and humid in the middle of October I'd move to Florida.


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## slatham (Oct 16, 2017)

End of Oct into early Nov looking better. Heat wave ends. Lets hope this is a pattern change and not just a cold blast and then back to baking.....


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## Not Sure (Oct 24, 2017)

Snow next week ! Daily update 
https://www.weatherbell.com/


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## Not Sure (Nov 1, 2017)

https://www.weatherbell.com/
Daily update vid............Optimistic outlook !


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## ALLSKIING (Nov 2, 2017)

This is the difference of snow and ice in Asia and Canada from last year to this year. Big difference this year which should help a lot.
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





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## JimG. (Nov 2, 2017)

So, we will probably be starting to ski about mid-November.

Pretty much like every year for me.


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## andrec10 (Nov 2, 2017)

JimG. said:


> So, we will probably be starting to ski about mid-November.
> 
> Pretty much like every year for me.



Me three....


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## Not Sure (Nov 10, 2017)

https://www.weatherbell.com/

JB says ..........It's On ! (Daily update)


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## Not Sure (Nov 17, 2017)

http://buffalonews.com/2017/11/16/p...d-period-of-severe-winter-weather-in-2017-18/


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## BenedictGomez (Nov 20, 2017)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> https://www.weatherbell.com/
> 
> JB says ..........It's On ! (Daily update)




True, but he does every year.    

This year at least holds some early signals of promise though.


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## Glenn (Dec 5, 2017)

Looks like a rough stretch for the next 12-16 hours. Then a cool-down well into next week.


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## andrec10 (Dec 5, 2017)

Glenn said:


> Looks like a rough stretch for the next 12-16 hours. Then a cool-down well into next week.


More like a cold down!


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## ss20 (Dec 5, 2017)

Next week looks even colder!!! :-o


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## Glenn (Dec 6, 2017)

We'll take it! I'm sure many mountains are going to want to resurface, then expand terrain for the upcoming Christmas break.


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## LostCosmonaut (Dec 10, 2017)

Glenn said:


> We'll take it! I'm sure many mountains are going to want to resurface, then expand terrain for the upcoming Christmas break.



I'm heading out to Colorado in January, so I'm hoping it gets a lot better than it is now (I have other stuff planned for the trip, but still..)


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## Glenn (Dec 11, 2017)

Tonight into tomorrow is looking good for VT.


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