# Hurricane Joaquin



## ctenidae (Sep 30, 2015)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/174913.shtml?50wind120#contents

Start panicking!
The marina issued a note recommending making preparations. $5 says school gets cancelled.


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## Puck it (Sep 30, 2015)

Heading to Nantucket on Sunday morning for the week.  Wife wants to leave Saturday.


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## thetrailboss (Sep 30, 2015)

ctenidae said:


> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/174913.shtml?50wind120#contents
> 
> Start panicking!
> The marina issued a note recommending making preparations. $5 says school gets cancelled.



Aren't they cancelled already? 


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## thetrailboss (Sep 30, 2015)

Puck it said:


> Heading to Nantucket on Sunday morning for the week.  Wife wants to leave Saturday.



You're not considering cancelling? 


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## Puck it (Sep 30, 2015)

thetrailboss said:


> You're not considering cancelling?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


No, i think we will be fine travelling on Sunday.  Won't be the first time over there for hurricane.  We were there for Floyd.


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## Puck it (Sep 30, 2015)

thetrailboss said:


> You're not considering cancelling?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


No, I want to be able to ski when I want to.   I think we will be fine travelling on Sunday.  Won't be the first time over there for hurricane.  We were there for Floyd.


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## xwhaler (Sep 30, 2015)

Have fun in ACK Puck!    Probably a real nice time of yr to be over there now that all the yahoos with collars up and sunblock on the nose have gone home.
I spent a summer working over there at Stop & Shop after college before entering corporate life.


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## xwhaler (Sep 30, 2015)

I too am tracking this because I have a tee time in Southern ME for early Sunday AM....don;t mind playing in a light drizzle but not heading out if it is a monsoon.


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## andrec10 (Sep 30, 2015)

At least all of the snowmaking Ponds/Lakes will be full after this!


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## Tin (Sep 30, 2015)

I didn't want to start it. Last time I started a hurricane thread called the "The Perfect Storm" it turned into Sandy two days later. I still don't think the Euro model can be thrown out yet, (remember the morning of 1/24/2015? LOL?). Still way too many variables and things going on (it's still moving south!). I can see it coming as far north as southern NJ then really roughing up Pennsylvania and NY.


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## marcski (Sep 30, 2015)

Tin said:


> I can see it coming as far north as southern NJ then really roughing up Pennsylvania and NY.



Isn't that the route Irene took when it devastated upstate?   [emoji30]


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## ss20 (Sep 30, 2015)

Holy crap... in 16 hours this went from a weak cat 1 making landfall as a TS to a cat 4 making landfall as a strong cat 2.

Can't wait to see the news tomorrow morning.  The hype train is leaving the station.


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## Tin (Oct 1, 2015)

Euro wins again. Looking OTS. Media will still hype it.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 1, 2015)

Euro is wrong


from my calculation the path goes as follows.


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## ScottySkis (Oct 1, 2015)

I love looking at the winds  now. I remember Gloria in 83 was bad where I live in the island of Long .


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## from_the_NEK (Oct 1, 2015)

Tin said:


> Euro wins again. Looking OTS. Media will still hype it.



Yesterday it was headed up the Chesapeake. Today it is headed south of Cape Cod. My guess is somewhere in the middle :-o .


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## Puck it (Oct 1, 2015)




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## bigbog (Oct 1, 2015)

Great boardsailing, either Kalmas or Nantucket...  Now if I can get the corner cleaned out and find a jackhammer to rent...can get the 2nd sump pump(with backup) started/done in time:lol:


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## dlague (Oct 1, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> Euro is wrong
> 
> 
> from my calculation the path goes as follows.



Good one!


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## Tin (Oct 1, 2015)

from_the_NEK said:


> Yesterday it was headed up the Chesapeake. Today it is headed south of Cape Cod. My guess is somewhere in the middle :-o .




Euro has had it OTS since this whole thing started.


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 1, 2015)

This thing is over...OTS


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## Abubob (Oct 1, 2015)

from_the_NEK said:


> Yesterday it was headed up the Chesapeake. Today it is headed south of Cape Cod. My guess is somewhere in the middle :-o .


No consensus on any forecast model yet.


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## Tin (Oct 1, 2015)

Just have to wait and see how far west this thing travels before it gets going north. 

I can't figure out if the National Hurricane Center is going for the most likely situation or track error. Most likely would have written this thing off already and not spreading panic up and down the coast. Declaring a state of emergency like NJ did just builds the panic and when a future storm hits people will not heed the warnings.


EDIT: As I wrote this the NHC released this...  






No hard hook. No OTS despite GFS and Euro agreement. WTF is going on.


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## steamboat1 (Oct 1, 2015)

Tin said:


> Just have to wait and see how far west this thing travels before it gets going north.
> 
> I can't figure out if the National Hurricane Center is going for the most likely situation or track error. Most likely would have written this thing off already and not spreading panic up and down the coast.* Declaring a state of emergency like NJ did just builds the panic and when a future storm hits people will not heed the warnings.*
> 
> ...


Don't think that's going to happen again. The weather guys were beating the drums when Irene hit & nothing of significance happened along the shore. When they beat the drums for Sandy no one paid much attention. Boy were they wrong.


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## Tin (Oct 1, 2015)

People have short memories.


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## andrec10 (Oct 1, 2015)

Tin said:


> People have short memories.



Guess they don't remember Sandy taking a quick left turn!


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## marcski (Oct 1, 2015)

Tin said:


> Declaring a state of emergency like NJ did just builds the panic and when a future storm hits people will not heed the warnings.



That probably has more to do with Christie and the big man's desire for media coverage and less to do with Joaquin.


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## Tin (Oct 1, 2015)

marcski said:


> That probably has more to do with Christie and the big man's desire for media coverage and less to do with Joaquin.



Haha. 5pm update should have the eastern shift on the track. If not, there is a lot more going on. They might gradually tick it east over the next several updates.

The storm did look a bit west of where the EURO initialized, given the ULL and other stuff at play 50 miles could be a major shift in track.


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## Whitey (Oct 1, 2015)

Puck it said:


> No, i think we will be fine travelling on Sunday.  Won't be the first time over there for hurricane.  We were there for Floyd.



What brings you to the island for a week in the off-season?   I just cancelled my plans for a long weekend there and have a lot of Nantucket ties.


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## mriceyman (Oct 1, 2015)

andrec10 said:


> Guess they don't remember Sandy taking a quick left turn!



The high in the atlantic was favorable a couple of days ago but is now non existent. Very small chances of landfall here but ya never know. 


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## steamboat1 (Oct 1, 2015)

andrec10 said:


> Guess they don't remember Sandy taking a quick left turn!


Which was predicted by some.


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## mriceyman (Oct 1, 2015)

steamboat1 said:


> Which was predicted by some.



Predicted by all except the euro which(if this goes ots) has been locked in for days now. Kinda makes me mad that the euro model can be so superior at times. 


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## Tin (Oct 1, 2015)

mriceyman said:


> Predicted by all except the euro which(if this goes ots) has been locked in for days now. Kinda makes me mad that the euro model can be so superior at times.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



NAM still has an east coast land fall and it is been correct when others said no (2010 Boxing Day).


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## yeggous (Oct 1, 2015)

Tin said:


> NAM still has an east coast land fall and it is been correct when others said no (2010 Boxing Day).



Piece of advice from a Pro: forget the NAM for tropical systems. The 18Z run on Tuesday actually crashed... Twice... Apparently due to the air-sea coupling parameterization.


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## ss20 (Oct 1, 2015)

11pm update out... don't even bother looking at it






No landfall (for Canada as well) and I doubt that Cape Cod will even get TS force winds.  Monday and Tuesday will be sunny where I am in western CT.


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## mriceyman (Oct 1, 2015)

Tin said:


> NAM still has an east coast land fall and it is been correct when others said no (2010 Boxing Day).



Its been terrible this whole process. It can be right at times but not with tropical systems. It was having major problems even picking up the storm even after it was a TS. I guess crazier things have happened but it cant really be taken seriously atm. 


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## Tin (Oct 2, 2015)

yeggous said:


> Piece of advice from a Pro: forget the NAM for tropical systems. The 18Z run on Tuesday actually crashed... Twice... Apparently due to the air-sea coupling parameterization.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



Figured as much, just didn't understand the NHC spreading the panic.


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## ctenidae (Oct 2, 2015)

It is interesting that all the models have moved east to agree with the ECMWF, but the Euro has moved west a touch to agree with the rest. Not a big enough shift to worry, of course, but from a pure pattern recognition perspective, it's interesting.


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## Puck it (Oct 2, 2015)

Whitey said:


> What brings you to the island for a week in the off-season?   I just cancelled my plans for a long weekend there and have a lot of Nantucket ties.


  We go every year since the mid 90's in the summer.  In the last 8 years we have been doing late JUne to beat the crowds.  We started going about 5 years ago in the early fall for my wife's birthday too.


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## from_the_NEK (Oct 2, 2015)

Anyone going surfing Tuesday? Should be a good swell coming in.


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## Abominable (Oct 2, 2015)

Puck it said:


> We go every year since the mid 90's in the summer.  In the last 8 years we have been doing late JUne to beat the crowds.  We started going about 5 years ago in the early fall for my wife's birthday too.



You fish?  Should be prime time.


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## Puck it (Oct 2, 2015)

Abominable said:


> You fish?  Should be prime time.


Nope hate it.


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## Harvey (Oct 2, 2015)

This storm doesn't have to landfall to have a serious impact.


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## Not Sure (Oct 2, 2015)

Harvey said:


> This storm doesn't have to landfall to have a serious impact.



http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather...earch-launched-ship-lost-during-storm-n437806


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## Cornhead (Oct 3, 2015)

I've heard possibility of 20+", I can't imagine, that'd be 20' of snow, no? After being flooded twice, I get nervous every time a storm comes up the coast, it ain't fun. Flooding in the mountains is a whole other animal, it is a violent event. Irene wiped the town of Prattsville, right down the road from Hunter, off the map.


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## Puck it (Oct 3, 2015)

On the first ferry to run today. Fast ferry is still not running.


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## thetrailboss (Oct 4, 2015)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather...earch-launched-ship-lost-during-storm-n437806



Not sounding good.....

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/04/us/el-faro-missing-ship-hurricane-joaquin/index.html



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## deadheadskier (Oct 4, 2015)

Awful    keeping the faith, but yeah not looking good.


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## thetrailboss (Oct 5, 2015)

Latest:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/05/us/el-faro-missing-ship-hurricane-joaquin/index.html

One body found 


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