# Monday Jan 26 2015



## billski (Jan 24, 2015)

Breaking this event out separately from the weekend event, since it really is a separate event.


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## billski (Jan 24, 2015)

*Wxrisk*

Looking to take a similar path to the weekend storm.    WxRisk weighs in.







"During the overnight hours the early Saturday morning European model  came out with a particularly impressive solution with regard to the  Manitoba   Mauler  (MM)  weather system which  COULD   develop into a  major East Coast snowstorm ...for someone."

"This model  shows a powerful southern stream system  that is   "is  neutrally tilted" over the Mississippi delta...  that develops a severe  negative tilt on Monday as the coastal Low begins to form.  The coastal  Low  closes  off  or separate itself from the main Jetstream flow which  allows for the surface  Low to stall for many hours off the New Jersey  Coast.  This results in extremely heavy snow and high winds from Boston  down to New York City and coastal New Jersey. The European model  which producing a wide band of 12 to 18 inches of snow in this area.   SEE IMAGE #2 .  The European model has significant support from the  European ensemble  but that doesn't necessarily mean that the European  solution is going to be correct .  "


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## BenedictGomez (Jan 24, 2015)

billski said:


> WxRisk weighs in.



I thought you didnt think he was good?


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## billski (Jan 24, 2015)

Good point!  I think he over thinks things and gets very excited well in advance of the play.  A little enthusiasm never hurt things this year.  Just like Tim Kelly, I like to listen to him, but also recognize he's trying to forecast 7 days ahead.  Of course I temper it all with the scientific reality of things.  Then again, I like to post what everyone is saying, including CrapUweather and let us all make up our own minds.  I don't mind drinking some Kool-aid this year


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## Wavewheeler (Jan 24, 2015)

So is it looking like a Monday storm or Monday night into Tuesday storm? Got plans to head to Hunter for a few days on Wednesday. I wish these storms would aim for the mountains, not the coast.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 24, 2015)

Wavewheeler said:


> So is it looking like a Monday storm or Monday night into Tuesday storm? Got plans to head to Hunter for a few days on Wednesday. I wish these storms would aim for the mountains, not the coast.



It going to hit the Catskills to. FYI platty is open and only 20$ Wed, Thursday and Friday should be epic have fum!!!!!


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## Wavewheeler (Jan 24, 2015)

ScottySkis said:


> It going to hit the Catskills to. FYI platty is open and only 20$ Wed, Thursday and Friday should be epic have fum!!!!!



Got the Big Lift Card for Hunter this year so it's only $33 for me to ski midweek and the B&B down the road is super cheap so Hunter is my new playground this year. Hope Catskills get a dumping. It's the least that can happen for the snow messing up the two days I'm supposed to work. Working tomorrow but will be worth it if the Cats gets something out of this.


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## ScottySkis (Jan 24, 2015)

Wavewheeler said:


> Got the Big Lift Card for Hunter this year so it's only $33 for me to ski midweek and the B&B down the road is super cheap so Hunter is my new playground this year. Hope Catskills get a dumping. It's the least that can happen for the snow messing up the two days I'm supposed to work. Working tomorrow but will be worth it if the Cats gets something out of this.



That  is good  deal I have it to and have had a lot of fun at hunter this winter I been to platty once this winter. Tommorow will be day two at Platty enjoy your mid week days at Hunter I wish I could ski mid week soon personal time coming at new job.


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## Wavewheeler (Jan 24, 2015)

I purposely work two 15 hour days so I can have the rest of the week free for skiing, hiking, camping, etc..and the weather always hits on those two days! I bought the BLC when my daughter and I went up to Hunter for 2 days skiing the first week in January. It was basically Buy 1-Get 1 free because I got her ticket for $33 too. It's paid for itself. I like Hunter because it's a straight shot up the Thruway and the B&B is 5 minutes away. Plus they have a new BBQ place in town that has delicious food. I also combine some great hiking in too after I'm done skiing going into the weekend.


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## billski (Jan 24, 2015)

BRING IT ON!


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## billski (Jan 24, 2015)

000
FXUS61 KBOX 250257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY AND COLD SUNDAY NIGHT
* CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR LONG DURATION WINTER STORM AFFECTING
  THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
* VERY COLD MON-WED WITH MODERATING TEMPS THU/FRI

SYNOPSIS...
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. A SEVERE AND LONG DURATION WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATER CLARITY ON DETAILS SHOULD EMERGE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
QUITE COLD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.


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## billski (Jan 24, 2015)

Canada's onboard


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## billski (Jan 25, 2015)

Too bad the new GFS is so bug riddled.


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## prsboogie (Jan 25, 2015)

Blizzard watch in effect from monday evening through late
tuesday night ...

The national weather service in taunton has issued a blizzard
watch ...which is in effect from monday evening through late
tuesday night.

* locations ...eastern massachusetts and rhode island.

* hazard types ...heavy snow ...strong winds and blizzard
conditions. Considerable blowing and drifting snow.

* accumulations ...snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches.

* timing ...the worst of the storm will be monday night through
tuesday afternoon.

* impacts ...heavy snow and strong winds will result in the
potential for blizzard conditions with near zero visibility.
Along the southeast new england coast ...the snow may be wet
enough to result in some downed tree limbs and power outages.
Travel may become impossible and life threatening across the
entire region. This has the potential to be a historic storm.

* winds ...north 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* temperatures ...in the lower 20s.

* visibilities ...one quarter mile or less at times.

Precautionary/preparedness actions ...

A blizzard watch means there is a potential for considerable
falling and/or blowing snow with sustained winds or frequent
gusts over 35 mph and visibilities below 1/4 mile for at least
3 hours. Whiteout conditions will be possible ...making travel
very dangerous. Be prepared to alter any travel plans.


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## Savemeasammy (Jan 25, 2015)

prsboogie said:


> This has the potential to be a historic storm.



I think I might start tearing up a little.  


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