# Weekend Feb 10-11-12



## billski (Feb 9, 2012)

I spy some snow with upslope potential for early Saturday.
Better get there on Sat. or it will all be in the woods on Sunday.  oooo nooooo!


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## WinnChill (Feb 9, 2012)

billski said:


> I spy some snow with upslope potential for early Saturday.
> Better get there on Sat. or it will all be in the woods on Sunday.  oooo nooooo!



Watching the trend for Saturday's offshore storm get even closer--we may be dealing with something here.  We'll keep watching  :-o


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## billski (Feb 9, 2012)

I think my car might break down somewhere in Vermont.  oooooo noooooo!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 9, 2012)

The Lehigh Valley guys is actually predicting 2 to 4 inches of snow at the moment, God only knows the Poconos could use that, even if it's just a few.



> The 12z GFS came wayyyyy West like the NAM12z.... and has a deeper trough axis than the NAM, but instead has a double low feature offshore, which is most likely incorrect. It has glaring convective feedback issues on this run, so verbatim while it agrees with the NAM *as far as totals, 2-4" Lehigh Valley, more South and East..*. it SHOULD be showing a much bigger coastal storm if it wasn't for the convective feedback issues. If you had big plans on Saturday, make sure they are in pencil...





> *Potential exists for over 6" of of snow... not calling this yet, but I am getting concerned*..............Upside potential 6-12".... but not favoring that.


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## xwhaler (Feb 9, 2012)

Come on Northern VT...we'll be at Smuggs Sat so really hoping for some fresh underfoot---be easier to deal with the cold/wind that is forecasted.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 9, 2012)

New England guy I follow is starting to get excited now too, he just posted his first snow prediction map.

I'd pay good money to have this map shift 50 miles west!!!!!

But lets hope this one pans out nevertheless, I'd be THRILLED with even 4" at this point, let alone 6".


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## WJenness (Feb 9, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> New England guy I follow is starting to get excited now too, he just posted his first snow prediction map.
> 
> I'd pay good money to have this map shift 50 miles west!!!!!
> 
> But lets hope this one pans out nevertheless, I'd be THRILLED with even 4" at this point, let alone 6".



PLEASE!!!

Who/what needs to be sacrificed.

-w


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## Tooth (Feb 9, 2012)

I dont believe it. Im trying reverse psychology with Ullr.


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## billski (Feb 9, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> The Lehigh Valley guys is actually predicting 2 to 4 inches of snow at the moment, God only knows the Poconos could use that, even if it's just a few.



The 12z GFS came wayyyyy West like the NAM12z.... and has a deeper trough axis than the NAM, but instead has a double low feature offshore, which is most likely incorrect. It has glaring convective feedback issues on this run, so verbatim while it agrees with the NAM as far as totals, 2-4" Lehigh Valley, more South and East... it SHOULD be showing a much bigger coastal storm if it wasn't for the convective feedback issues. If you had big plans on Saturday, make sure they are in pencil...

Translation:  It might snow.


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## hammer (Feb 9, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> New England guy I follow is starting to get excited now too, he just posted his first snow prediction map.
> 
> I'd pay good money to have this map shift 50 miles west!!!!!
> 
> But lets hope this one pans out nevertheless, I'd be THRILLED with even 4" at this point, let alone 6".


Just wish the color bands were reversed...all of that snow on the coast is such a waste.

Could be a good opportunity to hit the mighty Nashoba...


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 9, 2012)

hammer said:


> Just wish the color bands were reversed...all of that snow on the coast is such a waste.




There's hope.  For instance, just yesterday that map WAS farther east, and in his opinion



> Latest available Guidance is trending west



So fingers crossed....


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## ALLSKIING (Feb 9, 2012)

Not going to happen...Not this year... Summer is on its way and wont snow again until next winter...


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 9, 2012)

The Accuweather guys have a similar prediction, but they've not nudged the map as far west as the other guy.... And obviously pushing this thing westward or not is going to be key







And the Pennsy guy who has been the most conservative so far also sees it bumping further interior...



> *For those of you that have been following along, the models today have come way West *with a coastal system that could potentially affect us this Friday night from midnight through Saturday morning at least. Current call is for 1-4" which may end up being conservative... we will hold off for now going into storm mode until after the 00z runs tonight. I cannot give exact estimates better than that right now


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## ScottySkis (Feb 9, 2012)

Nice I know it will snow Saturday because I can't ski this weekend.


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## billski (Feb 9, 2012)

We are pre staged!
Life is too short. 
The gnome knows
follow the gnome
or suffer the indignatons of wasted snow. 
Repent!
Come to the promised land all ye believers!

Desparate times deserve desparate measures!

And I ain't even drinkin!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 9, 2012)

This storm needs a kick in the pants to the west, and we could be into something special.


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## MommaBear (Feb 10, 2012)

Weather guy here in CT is calling for 2 to 5 across the state - the 5 being where the picture above shows 6 to 12.  And said the further west or north you go, the amounts will be less.  Said the "considerable snowfall" will be out over the water.


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## WinnChill (Feb 10, 2012)

VT, NH, and ME forecasts are updated (whew!).  Yeah, this storm still looks like a glancing blow.  The cold front dropping in from the NW tonight could give northern areas a few inches--then the ocean storm clips southern resorts Saturday (not much) but I could see a Gunstock or a Waterville, possibly Sugarloaf/Sunday River with more favorable slope orientation to get a slight boost Saturday PM.  Winds may hold off most of the day to keep the windchill down a bit.  THEN, Jay/Smuggs/Stowe and a few other northern resorts picking up some upslope Sunday (mainly PM)....cold though with windchills!  Lots going on but I'll update through the weekend.  Hope that helps everyone!


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## ScottySkis (Feb 10, 2012)

Sounds great.


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## soulseller (Feb 10, 2012)

Looks like The 'Goo is getting the goods again. Fingers crossed Wawa gets the upper end of their range, thats where I will be tomorrow for 4pm.


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## drjeff (Feb 10, 2012)

soulseller said:


> Looks like The 'Goo is getting the goods again. Fingers crossed Wawa gets the upper end of their range, thats where I will be tomorrow for 4pm.



Going to be close for both the 'Goo and Wawa.  One of the biggest VARIABLES that needs to happen almost perfectly to even get the amounts that are being talked about now, is how quickly (or slowly) the COLD air will get into New England tonight to even allow it to snow in the 1st place. The areas on the forcast maps targeted as the "jackpot" areas are going to generally be in the mid to possibly even upper 40's today.  The precip is timed to get into those areas in the early hours of tomorrow morning. That's a good deal of cooling of the atmosphere from cloud level to ground that will have to occur in a relatively speaking short amount of time.  Given that when the storms gets to those "jackpot" areas that it at first will be a bit moisture starved, if the cold air doesn't get into place as predicted (and of course this year we've seen time and time again that the cold air arrival is often a bit slower than predicted), then you could very well see those amounts decreased even further


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## hammer (Feb 10, 2012)

Doesn't look like any more than dust on crust levels...I don't even see any weather advisories yet.


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## drjeff (Feb 10, 2012)

hammer said:


> Doesn't look like any more than dust on crust levels...I don't even see any weather advisories yet.



If this was a "normal" winter, I really feel that this system wouldn't really be gathering any appreciable news attention given how minimal its impacts will likely be for most, if not all, of us.  But given the winter we've had, it's therefore becoming a newsworthy event :rollyeyes:

To put it into a summer storm perspective, this would be the equivalent of a summer forcast that would read something like "periods of light rain/drizzle over most of the area for most of the daylight hours, with isolated areas picking up maybe a half inch of rain, but most of the area receives less than a quarter inch of rain"


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2012)

Yeah, this has been ratcheted down a bit.  Still hoping it kicks west, but it seems the weather wonks think there's basically very little chance of that happening.  Le sigh.....


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## Bostonian (Feb 10, 2012)

So the true questions, which ski area (aside from Wachusett) should I hit tomorrow?  I am thinking Sunapee, based on NOAA saying 1-2 inches...


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## bheemsoth (Feb 10, 2012)

Bostonian said:


> So the true questions, which ski area (aside from Wachusett) should I hit tomorrow?  I am thinking Sunapee, based on NOAA saying 1-2 inches...



We're heading to Bromley. Crowds should be limited, and we figured none of the major resorts will see anything out of this storm, so we might as well go to a warm(er) south facing slope and enjoy the shorter lift lines.


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## gmcunni (Feb 10, 2012)

not happy


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## hammer (Feb 10, 2012)

gmcunni said:


> not happy



PFTC...


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## jrmagic (Feb 10, 2012)

bheemsoth said:


> We're heading to Bromley. Crowds should be limited, and we figured none of the major resorts will see anything out of this storm, so we might as well go to a warm(er) south facing slope and enjoy the shorter lift lines.



It won't be any warmer if the sun isn't out. Actually it may feel colder with winds out the fo N/NW.


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## billski (Feb 10, 2012)

hammer said:


> PFTC...




wasted snow :evil:

I'll be at magic, learning how to ski.  :idea:


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## Tooth (Feb 10, 2012)

billski said:


> wasted snow :evil:
> 
> I'll be at magic, learning how to ski.  :idea:



Not wasted at all. 

http://winter.camdensnowbowl.com/22nd-annual-toboggan-championships

Huge event. Fun. Skiing. Beer. Party like scene.


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## billski (Feb 11, 2012)

Cape cod: wasted.


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## hammer (Feb 11, 2012)

Dud here...


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## ScottySkis (Feb 11, 2012)

Well catskills are getting this snow today so this a great snow day for them, and when people see snow on ground in metro areas we know they will head up to hills for fun so its a win when they hills need to make money.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2012)

billski said:


> wasted snow :evil:



It kept moving more and more OTS, but the models were showing areas way out in the ocean that would correspond to over 20 inches of snow.



Scotty said:


> Well catskills are getting this snow today so this a great snow day for them, and when people see snow on ground in metro areas we know they will head up to hills for fun so its a win when they hills need to make money.



Yeh, but they really didnt get much though, and in the metro areas nothing stuck.  Wouldnt shock be if dolts saw snow in the air and thought to go skiing today though.


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## billski (Feb 11, 2012)

Nada in So Vt.


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## Nick (Feb 11, 2012)

Supposed to be 4" here today, got liter all zilch


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## Glenn (Feb 12, 2012)

It was friggin cold today! Mountain cleared out around mid morning.


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## KingM (Feb 12, 2012)




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## jaja111 (Feb 13, 2012)

I'm not going to complain as the frontal passage combined with arctic air dropping in yielded an unexpected 14 inches in my front yard, while my local hill got only 5. WTF. (I'll take the 5 though as it made a world of difference.)


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## ScottySkis (Feb 13, 2012)

jaja111 said:


> I'm not going to complain as the frontal passage combined with arctic air dropping in yielded an unexpected 14 inches in my front yard, while my local hill got only 5. WTF. (I'll take the 5 though as it made a world of difference.)



That is wasted snow.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 13, 2012)

Sad Panda.   This winter SUCKS!


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## bheemsoth (Feb 13, 2012)

Highs in the mid 40's everyday during the 10 day forecast in CT. No percipitation, with the exception of rain on Friday. I've been upbeat to this point, but am starting to give up hope.


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## hammer (Feb 13, 2012)

Can we all admit now that this is worse than 2006-2007?


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## Tooth (Feb 14, 2012)

hammer said:


> Can we all admit now that this is worse than 2006-2007?



Way worse in my book. This season has blown the big one. I am looking forward to opening up our camp and fishing for togue and salmon. I cant believe this. :evil:


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## billski (Feb 14, 2012)

I'm following my vouchers regardless the condition.Even with low inventory purchase, there should be some blockbuster equipment sales after President's day.  Then we all go to Argentina.


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## farlep99 (Feb 14, 2012)

hammer said:


> Can we all admit now that this is worse than 2006-2007?



Yes and I'm using a scientific scale.  This year has been WAY worse on my liver than any other season.  No Significant Snow = More Time at the bar.  My liver is suffering this year!


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## kingslug (Feb 15, 2012)

This season is the total pits...


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