# Valentine's Day Storm (or there abouts)



## drjeff (Feb 5, 2009)

Okay, long range models are starting to agree somewhat that a storm that will kick out the warmer air and usher the cold back in will try and happen sometime in the 8 to 10 day range.  Since Valentine's day is within that window and I'm sure we can remember how nice mother nature has been the last couple of years to us in the Northeast with Feb/March/April holidays and snow, let's hope!


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## gmcunni (Feb 5, 2009)

funny, was thinking we needed v-day storm thread earlier today.. way to be on top of things doc.

hoping for a SVT hit, i'll be at mount snow 2/14 weekend.


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## Glenn (Feb 6, 2009)

gmcunni said:


> i'll be at mount snow 2/14 weekend.



Our passes our blacked out that weekend. My buddy is going up that weekend as well.  :-x


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## drjeff (Feb 6, 2009)

Glenn said:


> Our passes our blacked out that weekend. My buddy is going up that weekend as well.  :-x



That's right I forgot its the double holiday weekend,  Pres weekend + V-day.  The chances of this thing happening therefore MUST go up dramatically!


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## St. Bear (Feb 6, 2009)

gmcunni said:


> hoping for a SVT hit, i'll be at mount snow 2/14 weekend.



I'm hitting up Sugarbush on Fri for their $14 ticket special, then going to Loon on Sun.  Hopefully I'll follow the storm.


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## hammer (Feb 10, 2009)

Latest forecast discussion...boooo...



> DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS MAKE THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
> NEXT MONDAY MORE UNCERTAIN THAN IS TYPICAL. MODELS DO AGREE IN
> PRINCIPLE TO MOVING A LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO THE
> MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR SATURDAY. THIS STORM MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
> ...


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## 4aprice (Feb 10, 2009)

hammer said:


> Latest forecast discussion...boooo...



Would you trade this small event evaporating for a bigger dog down the road?  Not saying its going to happen, but rumors are starting to be spread.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## hammer (Feb 10, 2009)

4aprice said:


> Would you trade this small event evaporating for a bigger dog down the road?  Not saying its going to happen, but rumors are starting to be spread.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ


Yes...as long as the next event comes up no more than a week later...

I am going skiing on President's Day, but I'm already resigned to skiing groomed granular that day.  I would like something better later on, however...


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## ZYDECORICH (Feb 10, 2009)

k. i just got back from new orleans and while i was down there i went with some friends after a night of beer and oysters to a voodoo tarot lady. i walk in and this elderly black woman with dreadlocks and a glaucoma right eye sits me down. during my reading she asked me what my interests are and i told i ski and that i was going on a trip up northeast from feb11 till the 14th. any snow for then i asked? she throws out some cards and looks at me (i think) with that grey eye and says... the cards say your early.. this card says storms in your life later in the month. i said does that mean I'm getting fired or is it going to snow? she says the cards also show happiness later in the month, the numbers 18 and 20 are coming up. with that info under my belt we left to go find some music. lets see if the lady is on to something. perhaps a storm between wed feb 18th and friday the 20th? the whammy is on!


I'm telling you this lady was freaky. i bet it happens.


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## kingslug (Feb 10, 2009)

NOAA report for Hunter.......rain.....single digits at night.....then around 30's...then single digits at night...sounds....like...........icy crap


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## Mildcat (Feb 11, 2009)

drjeff said:


> That's right I forgot its the double holiday weekend,  Pres weekend + V-day.  The chances of this thing happening therefore MUST go up dramatically!



Now we just need Dr Jeff to go to a football game.  Snow for sure!


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## billski (Feb 11, 2009)

*Fizzle*

NWS poops on the "event"

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...ONLY 3 OUT OF 12 GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THIS
POTENTIAL SCENARIO[snow]...THEREFORE THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS LOW 


It's one thing to be an optimist, but I'm going to see the Voodoo Lady :angry:


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## 4aprice (Feb 11, 2009)

billski said:


> NWS poops on the "event"
> 
> .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
> ...ONLY 3 OUT OF 12 GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THIS
> ...



The GFS has been horrid this year.  The Euro has been better.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## St. Bear (Feb 11, 2009)

billski said:


> NWS poops on the "event"
> 
> .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
> ...ONLY 3 OUT OF 12 GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THIS
> ...



Long range forecast on weather.com shows a storm for NJ/PA on 2/18-2/19.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 11, 2009)

St. Bear said:


> Long range forecast on weather.com shows a storm for NJ/PA on 2/18-2/19.



steezy..


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## drjeff (Feb 11, 2009)

Mildcat said:


> Now we just need Dr Jeff to go to a football game.  Snow for sure!



It tends to work better when I have to get on a plane to go somewhere


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## billski (Feb 12, 2009)

*Powderfreak's Forecast posted Thursday AM*

This current weather is not helping the snowpack.  Judging by the streams
running across the Stowe parking lot in 50F sunshine today, we could
probably use a re-loading of snow.  I'm sure the situation is similar
around
the region and the Champlain Valley is turning brown already from the warmth.  

This will change tomorrow afternoon as the low pressure system moves east of
the region and the atmosphere cools...first in the higher elevations, then
making it into the mountain towns, and finally the Champlain Valley.  The
low becomes vertically stacked bringing strong NW winds into the Green
Mountains and northern Adirondacks at all levels of the lower-mid
atmosphere.  The system will have a decent amount of moisture entrained in
its flow, but temperatures will be marginal for a while so it may be a
denser-than-normal upslope snowfall.

Expect 4-8" of snow above 1,500ft with 1-4" below 1,500ft along the
central
and northern Green Mountain spine and northern Adirondacks tomorrow
afternoon through Friday morning.  Winds will be quite strong tomorrow
afternoon and evening with the snowfall, so this will probably drift quite a
bit.  

Flurries die off on Friday morning with winds subsiding during the day.  The
weekend looks good with a lot of sun and near normal temperatures.


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