# Booooooo!!!!!



## 2knees (Nov 19, 2009)

sounds like all this talk about a pattern change late next week is breaking down.  It almost sounds like we're gonna get a quick shot of cooler air around t-day and then possibly back to the shit house we've been dealing with all of november.


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## Greg (Nov 19, 2009)

Meh. Winter's canceled.


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## Grassi21 (Nov 19, 2009)

Greg said:


> Meh. Winter's canceled.



Time to get the mountain bike tuned up.


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## 2knees (Nov 19, 2009)

Greg said:


> Meh. Winter's canceled.




obviously winter will come.  we just changed our vacation schedule and i now have 3 use 'em or lose 'em days that i need to burn in the next 3 or 4 weeks.  I was hoping for some good weather news.


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## 2knees (Nov 19, 2009)

Grassi21 said:


> Time to get the mountain bike tuned up.




i hear they are moving lax season up by 4 months.....


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## Greg (Nov 19, 2009)

2knees said:


> obviously winter will come.  we just changed our vacation schedule and i now have 3 use 'em or lose 'em days that i need to burn in the next 3 or 4 weeks.  I was hoping for some good weather news.



Plenty of time. December powder is pretty typical. I just don't think we're that far behind schedule yet. 5 or 10 days of cold, or a big dump and we're in. Just hope it's not a start like 2007-08....


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## 2knees (Nov 19, 2009)

Greg said:


> Just hope it's not a start like 2007-08....



you've tapped into my underlying fear.  i cant get that out of my head.


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## Puck it (Nov 19, 2009)

The NOAA report that I looked at this morning for Killington looks like snow showers throught through the end of the week unless it changed.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Nov 19, 2009)

was weird to see folks laying out on the beach on Sunday....its middle of November....nuts..ski sacrafice in the fire pit may be on tap for this weekend


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## 2knees (Nov 19, 2009)

Puck it said:


> The NOAA report that I looked at this morning for Killington looks like snow showers throught through the end of the week unless it changed.



a few snow showers with the onset of some cooler air does not a pattern shift make........


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## severine (Nov 19, 2009)

Boo! Sucks big time....


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## Greg (Nov 19, 2009)

2knees said:


> you've tapped into my underlying fear.  i cant get that out of my head.



Actually, it was 2006-07 that was the shit start. Remember, we went to Sugarbush that January (the 19th). I think that's when the season finally got started and was pretty epic through April. Frustrating start though.


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## 2knees (Nov 19, 2009)

Greg said:


> Actually, it was 2006-07 that was the shit start. Remember, we went to Sugarbush that January (the 19th). I think that's when the season finally got started and was pretty epic through April. Frustrating start though.




i was just going to say it was actually 3 winters ago.  Yeah i remember that, we missed a nice snow event and castlerock opening by 1 day.


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## 4aprice (Nov 19, 2009)

I'm not sure I see the doom you guys are talking about.  Things in the atmosphere are changing but it's not going to happen all at once.   A cold shot at Thanksgiving followed by a brief warming would not surprise me at all.  My belief is you will see it pulse downward toward the middle of the month.  It may be a slower start then the last couple of seasons with the real rewards later on (Is that really unusual for New England?)

If your baseing your doom on one particular model run be careful because according to most of the pro mets I've read, they say that the models have a very hard time with pattern changes.  Tomorrows solution could be completely different.

Hopefully we get a window that will allow us to start up then gradually improve till the real cold weather arrives.  There's plenty of cold(and snow) in the northern hemisphere currently on the other side of the globe.  As the pattern changes it won't be hard for that air to come over to this side.  To quote Tom Petty "The waiting is the hardest part".

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Grassi21 (Nov 19, 2009)

2knees said:


> i hear they are moving lax season up by 4 months.....



actually, the fall season just wrapped up.  in dec/jan/feb i will be doing some indoor stuff with the youth league.  lax it up biotch.


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## jaja111 (Nov 19, 2009)

It seems to me (an officially un-educated meteorological opinion based on the dataset of my 33 years in the northeast) that the longer a specific pattern of weather hangs around, the more dramatic the flip when it does change. The last three patterns here in western NY, and I assume analogous to the northeast in general, have been dry/sunny/moderate temps to rainy/overcast/below average temps back to dry/sunny/above average temps from August till now - all lasting 4-6 weeks. Each one of these patterns flipped on basically one particular day. 

So I'll put it this way, if November was spent wavering between all three patterns, I'd worry about a slow slog into sticking snow on the ground. If the patterns were short the changes would be gradual and transient in nature. The way things are now give a good chance for winter to kick in full force for 4-6 weeks, then a thaw for a few weeks, and then super sub arctic through the heart of winter. Heck, I'd be fine if it stayed like this through the second week of December. It seems like a spring that loads up before it lets go.

Remember, nearly every sunset this summer was purple-ish. That equals heavy volcanic dust in the atmosphere, which in turn usually spells more precip and colder temps for the winter. 33 years says purplish sunsets = brutal winter.

Science, it's what neither I nor the meteorologists have on their side! (to varying degrees).


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## Johnskiismore (Nov 19, 2009)

It's still early, I am not worried!


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## JimG. (Nov 19, 2009)

2knees said:


> sounds like all this talk about a pattern change late next week is breaking down.  It almost sounds like we're gonna get a quick shot of cooler air around t-day and then possibly back to the shit house we've been dealing with all of november.



I'm going nuts here.

But then I remember the last few seasons started out great and then totally fizzled.

And as I think back alot of epic snow seasons started out slow like this season has. And we're due for a great snow year.

So I'm willing to wait even though I'm pretty much jumping out of my skin to go skiing.


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## faceplant (Nov 19, 2009)

accuweather.com today-

'The lake-effect event will be ramping up Wednesday over the central Great Lakes and will spread to the eastern Great Lakes and into the northern Appalachians Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.
Enough snow will fall to shovel, plow and slow travel in isolated areas, typical of lake-effect snow events.
After in-and-out cold air into the first week of December, winter cold may lock and load beginning during the second week of the month.'


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## 2knees (Nov 20, 2009)

from that weather forum.  this is the same guy someone quoted in another thread.

Posted Today, 11:43 AM 

Update...

One word describes the 12z GFS: COLD 

And, there’s a chance that the system on T-G day could end up being a snow bomb for New England – slim but still there. Then all hell breaks lose. The EPO goes down like a dirty prom date and we wind up with a huge arctic dump. Which btw … Alaska and the interior NW territories of Canada have been between -30 and -40F very recently so we have home grown cold to transport. 

i started my snowblower last night.  going for the anti-anti jinx.  I seriously debated wearing shorts to work today in an attempt to goad winter into making an appearance.


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## 4aprice (Nov 20, 2009)

2knees said:


> from that weather forum.  this is the same guy someone quoted in another thread.
> 
> Posted Today, 11:43 AM
> 
> ...



Typhoon Tip (Poster's screen name) is gung ho on this happening.  I think you will get your vacation days on snow if they don't run out on you before the middle of December.   If its as cold as he thinks then the skiing could get down right good very quickly.  I too have some free time coming before the Christmas and hope to hit the snow.  If this happens I will gladly sacrafice Thankgiving weekend and :beer:

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Johnskiismore (Nov 20, 2009)

The Pemi is running nice right now.... hmm, maybe I'll dust off the kayak


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## gmcunni (Nov 20, 2009)

i was so depressed about the weather today i went to my daughter's room and shook up all her snow globes in hopes of improving my mood


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## skidmarks (Nov 20, 2009)

*I want winter to start ASAP!! Winter Welcome*

It's time to break out the Samuel Smith's Winter Welcome!!
All I need to do now is sit back and wait.


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## bvibert (Nov 21, 2009)

skidmarks said:


> It's time to break out the Samuel Smith's Winter Welcome!!
> All I need to do now is sit back and wait.



Nice! :beer:


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## severine (Nov 21, 2009)

skidmarks said:


> It's time to break out the Samuel Smith's Winter Welcome!!
> All I need to do now is sit back and wait.


Here's hoping it works! :beer:


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## wa-loaf (Nov 21, 2009)

Now I'm thirsty and want some snow!


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## billski (Nov 21, 2009)

skidmarks said:


> It's time to break out the Samuel Smith's Winter Welcome!!
> All I need to do now is sit back and wait.



nice one skid!

for some reason I thought after you poured the brew that it was going to start snowing inside..


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## tarponhead (Nov 22, 2009)

skidmarks said:


> It's time to break out the Samuel Smith's Winter Welcome!!
> All I need to do now is sit back and wait.



Enlightened approach. So much so I stopped at my local beeratorium today and picked up a 550ml bottle. Enjoying one now. Love the label; "Blessing of your heart you brew good ale. _W. Shakespeare_."

Ullr, please........


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## skidmarks (Nov 23, 2009)

*Waiting Game*

Let's take nature's cue! The waiting game...


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## severine (Dec 11, 2009)

skidmarks said:


> It's time to break out the Samuel Smith's Winter Welcome!!
> All I need to do now is sit back and wait.


Finally trying some tonight based on your suggestion and it's pretty good. Thanks! :beer:


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