# Long Range NorEaster



## Abubob (Nov 15, 2012)




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## Puck it (Nov 15, 2012)

Two weeks out. I think I will scheduling the day off now.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 15, 2012)

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Please be snow for the hills and just a little rain or nothing for the city's.


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## bzrperfspec77 (Nov 15, 2012)

Scotty said:


> Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2
> 
> Please be snow for the hills and just a little rain or nothing for the city's.



Haha gotta love the PC comments now about hoping for snow. Hope everything is going good for you and your place of business Scotty.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 15, 2012)

bzrperfspec77 said:


> Haha gotta love the PC comments now about hoping for snow. Hope everything is going good for you and your place of business Scotty.





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Thanks my place is okay but my job is another story.($1,000,000) gone due to flood and insurance not covering it , my boss has been pretty okay about it conserding how he normally is.


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## HowieT2 (Nov 15, 2012)

324 hours out on the GFS warrants a thread?  
calm down people.  'nothing to see here.

although, I must admit I am getting antsy as well.


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## Abubob (Nov 16, 2012)

HowieT2 said:


> 324 hours out on the GFS warrants a thread?
> calm down people.  'nothing to see here.
> 
> although, I must admit I am getting antsy as well.



It would just be cool if it panned out.

Here is the same model 24 hours later. While its showing the same storm is mostly rain for New England it still has a lot of cold air behind it. Also the blocking high over Greenland has been replace with a low.


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## VB (Nov 16, 2012)

We just need a snow storm this weekend, going to Killington this weekend and it would be nice for some new snow on top of all that blown snow


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## WinnChill (Nov 16, 2012)

Abubob said:


> It would just be cool if it panned out.
> 
> Here is the same model 24 hours later. While its showing the same storm is mostly rain for New England it still has a lot of cold air behind it. Also the blocking high over Greenland has been replace with a low.
> 
> View attachment 6851



I'm not getting too excited about this one.  The setup isn't nearly as favorable as we had with recent storms.  Had those occurred later in the season, we'd be doing cartwheels.  But post T-day may not be able to get that cold air entirely through us--one of the biases of this particular model.  I could see a mixing scenario ending as some snow again with the storm track through the region but not the offshore bomb that we'd like.  Something to keep an eye on but at this rate most resorts should focus on all-out snowmaking.


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## jrmagic (Nov 16, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> I'm not getting too excited about this one. The setup isn't nearly as favorable as we had with recent storms. Had those occurred later in the season, we'd be doing cartwheels. But post T-day may not be able to get that cold air entirely through us--one of the biases of this particular model. I could see a mixing scenario ending as some snow again with the storm track through the region but not the offshore bomb that we'd like. Something to keep an eye on but at this rate most resorts should focus on all-out snowmaking.



Hey Winn. A friend posted this no a non-ski site so his focus is around NYC but would you care to comment on this as reading it is getting me very excited...

Long range models are honking big time for an epic winter pattern for very late November and into the 1st 2 weeks of December. Pattern that is very similar to the famous winters of 95-96 and 2010-2011. Im hoping these pattern projections last.


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## WinnChill (Nov 17, 2012)

jrmagic said:


> Hey Winn. A friend posted this no a non-ski site so his focus is around NYC but would you care to comment on this as reading it is getting me very excited...
> 
> Long range models are honking big time for an epic winter pattern for very late November and into the 1st 2 weeks of December. Pattern that is very similar to the famous winters of 95-96 and 2010-2011. Im hoping these pattern projections last.



Tough call but there is some conficting data.  The pattern configuration doesn't seem to favor an epic pattern per se--the blocking that made 10-11 was off the chart and we simply don't have that just yet--some features yes, other factors no--even though we had some blocking support during the last couple of storms.  A slight pattern shift into early Dec could start favoring slight cold air advancement towards us but not really settling in.  Again, tough call but I'm not seeing significant signs for storms of epic proportions (depending on what your definition of epic is of course).  I could see slightly more systems rolling through early Dec but could be inland runners/clippers (mixing) without the deeper cold we need for ocean bombs.  Many seasonal forecasts (including Snowforecast's) were predicated upon a weak El Nino but that has already changed--that's why SF.com held back on publishing so we can revise things a bit.   We'll also be issuing our custom, detailed Northeast forecasts when the pattern picks up.  Until then, we've been focused on site rennovations...more to follow.   Thanks for the question.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 17, 2012)

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Any chance of lake effect for Ny Roxbury, home of my favorite place soon?


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## Abubob (Nov 17, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> I could see slightly more systems rolling through early Dec but could be inland runners/clippers (mixing) without the deeper cold we need for ocean bombs.



That is almost exactly what the GFS model is showing now - a few clipper like systems coming through. The big storm shown two day ago is completely off the model. Two systems that were shown to join no longer meet and the blocking high is shown much too far south. So the NAO is shown to be no longer negative but positive for the 29th.

This model changes like the weather and it may show that a storm forms again as new runs are made. Here's hoping.


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## Abubob (Nov 17, 2012)

Scotty said:


> Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2
> 
> Any chance of lake effect for Ny Roxbury, home of my favorite place soon?



Doesn't look like it until after the TG holiday. Looks like a bit of a warming trend this coming week before TG but turning colder after.


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## BenedictGomez (Nov 17, 2012)

Abubob said:


> That is almost exactly what the GFS model is showing now - a few clipper like systems coming through.



Isnt the GFS historically kindof crappy for long-range prediction?  Or, at least maybe I should say dont weather people usually pay more attention/credence to the Euro or UKMET for longer range stuff?



Scotty said:


> Any chance o*f lake effect for Ny Roxbury, home of my favorite place* soon?



I'm still shocked by the fact that Plattekill gets substantial Lake Effect snow from a lake that is over 150 miles away.  It just boggles my mind that the effect can travel that far of a distance.


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## Abubob (Nov 17, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> Isnt the GFS historically kindof crappy for long-range prediction?  Or, at least maybe I should say dont weather people usually pay more attention/credence to the Euro or UKMET for longer range stuff?



Yes ... maybe thats why its free.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 17, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> Isnt the GFS historically kindof crappy for long-range prediction?  Or, at least maybe I should say dont weather people usually pay more attention/credence to the Euro or UKMET for longer range stuff?
> 
> 
> 
> I'm still shocked by the fact that Plattekill gets substantial Lake Effect snow from a lake that is over 150 miles away.  It just boggles my mind that the effect can travel that far of a distance.



Vermont lake effect also comes from both the Great lakes and Lake Champaign. Basically it just goes into their in a hill to pull it down, and Platty is the hill. There is a great article I think on Harvey Road blog about how lake effect works, I try finding it when I have computer service later, now I'm I'm my phone also I probably posted in a platty thread last year I think.

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## BenedictGomez (Nov 17, 2012)

Scotty said:


> Vermont lake effect also comes from both the Great lakes and Lake Champaign. Basically it just goes into their in a hill to pull it down, and Platty is the hill. There is a great article I think on Harvey Road blog about how lake effect works,



I remember reading that last year, it really is fascinating.


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## Abubob (Nov 17, 2012)

Aaaand its back. This model will do this back and forth for days but I think its really onto something.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 18, 2012)

Abubob said:


> Aaaand its back. This model will do this back and forth for days but I think its really onto something.
> 
> View attachment 6857





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So it look good for hills like Catskills I. ny and hills in New England, and not Nyc and Jersey I hope?


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## Abubob (Nov 18, 2012)

It keeps coming back to this. What will the reality be? Keep in mind this is still over a week and a half away.


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## BenedictGomez (Nov 18, 2012)

Abubob said:


> Keep in mind this is still over a week and a half away.



Still fun to look at!   Plus, it seems to be projecting a bit colder than originally.  Incremental positives!


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## Abubob (Nov 19, 2012)

Off again. Will it turn itself on again?


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## Abubob (Nov 19, 2012)

NAO. Where will it go?


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## BenedictGomez (Nov 20, 2012)

GFS refuses to back down, still showing a decent NY/NE snow for 11/28'ish.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 20, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> GFS refuses to back down, still showing a decent NY/NE snow for 11/28'ish.





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I hope the hills get some to.


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## BenedictGomez (Nov 20, 2012)

Scotty said:


> I hope the hills get some to.



It's just a model run, so nothing to get excited about yet, but Platty is in the 5-6 inch range on it.  I'm just excited to "see" snow, even if it's only on a model!


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## WinnChill (Nov 20, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> It's just a model run, so nothing to get excited about yet, but Platty is in the 5-6 inch range on it.  I'm just excited to "see" snow, even if it's only on a model!



I'm leaning towards that track getting pulled back a bit further west to fit more in with this model's bias.  Maybe a bit more front-end mixing.  But at least temps drop this weekend so northeast resorts can go all-out snowmaking.  That would mean some good lake effect snows for you Scotty!


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## Abubob (Nov 20, 2012)

The GFS seems to be mirroring the MRF ensembles ambiguity but there's an indication that the NAO will be on the negative side if not more so. That's what this storm needs to deepen into a bigger storm rather than just continuing on out to sea.

One other thing to note is that GFS shows three separate weather events for the Northeast inside of a week from Wed Nov 28 to Wed Dec 5. SOMETHING's gonna happen!


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## ScottySkis (Nov 20, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> I'm leaning towards that track getting pulled back a bit further west to fit more in with this model's bias.  Maybe a bit more front-end mixing.  But at least temps drop this weekend so northeast resorts can go all-out snowmaking.  That would mean some good lake effect snows for you Scotty!





That would be about as much lake effect as they got last year.


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## WinnChill (Nov 20, 2012)

Abubob said:


> The GFS seems to be mirroring the MRF ensembles ambiguity but there's an indication that the NAO will be on the negative side if not more so. That's what this storm needs to deepen into a bigger storm rather than just continuing on out to sea.
> 
> One other thing to note is that GFS shows three separate weather events for the Northeast inside of a week from Wed Nov 28 to Wed Dec 5. SOMETHING's gonna happen!



True, the NAO will be slightly negative which helps--after all, it'll be just about as negative as it was for last year's Snowtober storm--however, the _transition_ to negative is weak during that time.  I'd rather see it sort of snap into negative rather than go negative then flatline to the event.  I can see a slightly weakened system sliding through rather than bombing out offshore.  Another indication is the near flat flow across the US leading up to the event.  The upper level trough, or short-wave (looking at the 500 milibar chart on both the GFS and Euro) slides straight across from the Midwest to New England.  Probably too flat to get a _strong_ storm--I'd like to see that curl in much further south.   

I'm not trying to poo-poo what you're saying--I'm just offering a fun exercise in considering a few more variables.  Yes, something will be brewing as colder air tries to edge in....probably a quick half-foot (give or take) event with a slider like this.  It'll be fun to track over the holiday!  

Thanks Abubob!


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## Abubob (Nov 21, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> True, the NAO will be slightly negative which helps--after all, it'll be just about as negative as it was for last year's Snowtober storm--however, the _transition_ to negative is weak during that time.  I'd rather see it sort of snap into negative rather than go negative then flatline to the event.  I can see a slightly weakened system sliding through rather than bombing out offshore.  Another indication is the near flat flow across the US leading up to the event.  The upper level trough, or short-wave (looking at the 500 milibar chart on both the GFS and Euro) slides straight across from the Midwest to New England.  Probably too flat to get a _strong_ storm--I'd like to see that curl in much further south.
> 
> I'm not trying to poo-poo what you're saying--I'm just offering a fun exercise in considering a few more variables.  Yes, something will be brewing as colder air tries to edge in....probably a quick half-foot (give or take) event with a slider like this.  It'll be fun to track over the holiday!



Not to be negative but its looking more and more like the NAO will be. The GFS is showing more "curl" here - maybe too much as the low is forming over land which could circulate the warm air in first but its still showing this as a big storm.


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## WinnChill (Nov 21, 2012)

Abubob said:


> Not to be negative but its looking more and more like the NAO will be. The GFS is showing more "curl" here - maybe too much as the low is forming over land which could circulate the warm air in first but its still showing this as a big storm.
> 
> View attachment 6875 View attachment 6876



Another thing to keep in mind is the model run....off-hour runs like the 06 and 18Z are run off of old data....the 00Z and 12Z runs ingest new upper air sounding data.  Try to compare the on-hour runs to off-hour runs to keep track of those changes.  Just another thing to consider.  We'll be watching the potential for the track to shift back a bit with some mixing with this.  Still a ways out--plenty of time to soak in more data!


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## Abubob (Nov 21, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Another thing to keep in mind is the model run....off-hour runs like the 06 and 18Z are run off of old data....the 00Z and 12Z runs ingest new upper air sounding data.  Try to compare the on-hour runs to off-hour runs to keep track of those changes.  Just another thing to consider.  We'll be watching the potential for the track to shift back a bit with some mixing with this.  Still a ways out--plenty of time to soak in more data!



True that. I just like to post the ones that look like big snow. Reality will always tend to muck things up though. 8)


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## ScottySkis (Nov 21, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Another thing to keep in mind is the model run....off-hour runs like the 06 and 18Z are run off of old data....the 00Z and 12Z runs ingest new upper air sounding data.  Try to compare the on-hour runs to off-hour runs to keep track of those changes.  Just another thing to consider.  We'll be watching the potential for the track to shift back a bit with some mixing with this.  Still a ways out--plenty of time to soak in more data!





Still looking good for lake effect snow next week and a snow storm for the Catskills?


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## WinnChill (Nov 21, 2012)

Abubob said:


> True that. I just like to post the ones that look like big snow. Reality will always tend to muck things up though. 8)



I hear ya!  It's always good to track those from a long ways out like you're doing just to see the trend.  The 12Z runs were interesting--Euro too.  I haven't looked at much nor the ensembles but it does look a bit more interesting.  Now let's monitor this trend to see how it hangs on to this solution.  I'll be busy the rest of the day--if I don't catch up with you before then, Happy Thanksgiving!


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## WinnChill (Nov 21, 2012)

Scotty said:


> Still looking good for lake effect snow next week and a snow storm for the Catskills?



Some stretched out lake effect Saturday is still in the cards.  Still watching next week's storm--a favorable trend but will monitor over the holiday/weekend.  Happy Thanksgiving if i don't catch up with you til then.


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## Abubob (Nov 22, 2012)

Last few GFS runs have the storm develop on the west side of the Appalachians. Not good news as this would mean more rain for New England.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 23, 2012)

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So not much snow for the hills is south New England from the snow event on this Saturday night?


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## Abubob (Nov 24, 2012)

Scotty said:


> Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2
> 
> So not much snow for the hills is south New England from the snow event on this Saturday night?



We were getting snow showers here is central NH this evening. How much did central NY state get Scotty?

As far as the "event" for Wednesday is concerned there seems to be no way to predict what track it will take. It seems it will definitely go out over water but - how far south or north? Too far south and it just goes out to sea. Still hoping but the cold air that we need so desperately is working against us but pushing the storm too far south. There's new hope for the 6th though. :dunce:


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## ScottySkis (Nov 25, 2012)

Abubob said:


> We were getting snow showers here is central NH this evening. How much did central NY state get Scotty?
> 
> As far as the "event" for Wednesday is concerned there seems to be no way to predict what track it will take. It seems it will definitely go out over water but - how far south or north? Too far south and it just goes out to sea. Still hoping but the cold air that we need so desperately is working against us but pushing the storm too far south. There's new hope for the 6th though. :dunce:
> 
> View attachment 6888


I guess.not much


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## Abubob (Nov 29, 2012)

I can't help myself... This really didn't work the way I wanted but it shows the northerly and southerly flows working together the way they should somewhere around the 12th. Let's hope.


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