# The Official 12/30 Storm Discussion Thread



## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 28, 2007)

Here's a link from one of the more reliable weather sites..

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=1&zipChg=1&article=2

Looks like Fresh Poe for Sunday in the Poconos..


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## Bumpsis (Dec 28, 2007)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> Looks like Fresh Poe for Sunday in the Poconos..



Hey Grilled,what's with the "Poe" word?? Looks like you're trying to coin to a new word for powder, but I don't get it. It just doesn't work, phonetically or otherwise. Is there some secret etymology that's involved? Why "Poe" and what's with the capitalization?


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 28, 2007)

Bumpsis said:


> Hey Grilled,what's with the "Poe" word?? Looks like you're trying to coin to a new word for powder, but I don't get it. It just doesn't work, phonetically or otherwise. Is there some secret etymology that's involved? Why "Poe" and what's with the capitalization?



I've been saying and skiing fresh Poe for years..it's way better than mad sweet and low..or mad applesauce..Fresh Poe is mad goldilocks..just right.  Here's some more stoke I from the web about this upcoming storm..

This is a quote from phillyweather.com
In the snow areas north and west, the potential for 6" is possible, especially along the Route 222 corridor. Places like Allentown, Reading, Harrisburg, and the Poconos stand to do pretty well from this event. The Philadelphia suburbs may contend with sleet mixing in and the potential is there for 2-4" for Pottstown, Quakertown, Doylestown, and West Chester.


Woo Hoo..Channels 3, 6, and 10..are gonna be in Hog Heaven Sunday..Holla....and I'll be skiing Fresh Poe at Blue mountain the true mountain..It might be a double dip session that day..Early morning Fresh Cord..then go home and post on the internet..then a Late PM/evening session when the snow is dumping the hardest..Storm Skiing is the bomb deezy fo sheezy..Ya Heard..


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## Greg (Dec 29, 2007)

*Snow Advisory: 3-6" for Litchfield County*

We have a Snow advisory for our area:



> *Snow Advisory In Effect From 7 PM Sunday To 6 AM EST Monday... *
> 
> The National Weather Service In Albany Has Issued A Snow Advisory... Which Is In Effect From 7 PM Sunday To 6 AM EST Monday For Ulster... Dutchess... And Litchfield Counties.
> 
> ...


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## loafer89 (Dec 29, 2007)

NOAA is predicting 4-7" for my county with possible 8" amounts in the higher elevations. Lucky me.


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## loafer89 (Dec 29, 2007)

NOAA now says 8" + likely for NE Connecticut. What good does it do for us, we haven't any sking in my part of the state.

We are leaving Saddleback by 1pm to avoid driving home in any bad weather.


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## The Sneak (Dec 30, 2007)

going for 1st chair at wachusett tomorrow...


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## adamti91 (Dec 30, 2007)

Finally the Catskills will get some snow again...


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## powderfreak (Dec 30, 2007)

Summary:

Developing winter storm in the southeastern U.S. will move up along the
Atlantic coast spreading a shield of snow across the entire northeast
tonight and Monday morning.  Heaviest snowfall accumulations are expected to
be across the Catskills, Greater Albany area, Berkshires, and a large area
of central New England where 5-9" is expected.  Lighter snows are expected
across northern New England and the Adirondacks where 3-6" are expected.

Then, on Tuesday a robust area of low pressure will track across New England
and all signs are pointing to an incredible amount of Atlantic moisture
getting thrown back into central and northern New England.  This event
should spread a widespread 5-10" across the northern half of the Green
Mountains, and all of the White Mountains by Wednesday morning.  A foot is
not out of the question across NVT, NNH, and ME on Tuesday.

Discussion:

Rapidly changing weather situation on our hand with not one, but two systems
that could total 1.5 feet in some areas between 12am Monday and 12pm
Wednesday.  The system for tonight is developing nicely in the southeast and
models are still playing catch up on the moisture with this.  12z NAM has
.5-.75" of QPF across most of Vermont except the far north.  Models showing
signs of a very healthy system with incredible upper level divergence in RRQ
of 150kt+ jet streak.  This divergence is causing a very nice satellite
presentation this morning and rapidly cooling cloud tops are spreading north
ahead of the system.  Due to deep layer mechanics with this system, I feel
more confident that we realize significant snow across southern/central New
England with moderate snow accumulations across the north.  Maximum vertical
velocities across the area are  located in the area of best dendrite snow
growth at -12C to -16C temperatures.      Temperatures are mild now but once
this rolls in we'll fall into the upper 20's with good dendrites falling
from the sky at the heart of the event with rates exceeding 1"/hr across SVT
and adjacent areas. 

Then...well, I'll let this morning's Hydro Prediction Center Heavy Snowfall
discussion fill you in on the Tues into Wed event.  I like the catch
phrases in here that make skiers and riders go crazy, like "extremely heavy
snowfall" and "tremendous surge of Atlantic moisture."  

NEW ENGLAND/GRT LAKES...
THE SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS FROM THE PAC WILL ROLL INTO THE PLAINS/MS
VLY DAY 2 BEFORE BEGINNING TO PARTIALLY PHASE WITH A DIGGING NRN
STREAM SHORT WAVE ARRIVING INTO THE UPR MS VLY ON TUES. THE
RESULTANT... DESPITE SOME CONSIDERATE MODEL SPREAD AND
UNCERTAINTY... WILL BE A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SLIDING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND A TREMENDOUS SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ARRIVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DEPICT SOMETHING
SIMILAR TO THIS IDEA BUT ARE REALLY WAVERING ON THE ACT AXIS OF LL
MOISTURE SURGING INTO NEW ENGLAND. HPC ENDED UP FOLLOWING A BLEND
OF THE 21Z SREF MEAN AND EARLIER 12Z ECMWF OVER THE 00Z NAM/GFS
WHICH WOULD EASILY PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOW FROM ME THROUGH
NH/VT INTO UPSTATE NY WITH HVY SNOWFALL LIKELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GRT LAKES. THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH STRONG CAA WILL STREAM
ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM GRT LAKES FOR DECENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
THE EXACT DETAILS ON THIS IMPENDING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PLAYED
OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT SOMEBODY ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
WILL LIKELY SEE A FOOT OF SNOW ON TUES.  

-Scott


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## Greg (Dec 30, 2007)

Snowing lightly, 33.1*F and a dusting so far.


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## Zand (Dec 30, 2007)

7:58 PM - It's flurrying. 6-10" is the forecast here.


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## loafer89 (Dec 30, 2007)

It's dumping fast and furious here and 31F. It started snowing just after we crossed the MA/CT line in Union.

My deck @8:40pm with about 1" new:


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## Mark_151 (Dec 30, 2007)

Coming down good 15 minutes from Wachusett.


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## WJenness (Dec 30, 2007)

Snowing pretty decently here in Chelmsford, MA. Been snowing about a half hour or so.

Going to get my camera I got for Christmas, will post pic.

Note: Parked my car at 8:30, probably still warm enough to melt new snow.

-w


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## loafer89 (Dec 30, 2007)

2" now, and mixing with some sleet.


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## bvibert (Dec 30, 2007)

I was just outside and it seemed like mostly niar in Torrington...


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## MarkC (Dec 31, 2007)

5-6" on the ground near plattekill


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## Greg (Dec 31, 2007)

*Bust!*

About 2" of heavy wet slop here... :roll: :evil:


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## bvibert (Dec 31, 2007)

Greg said:


> About 2" of heavy wet slop here... :roll: :evil:



Highly disappointing! :uzi:


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## riverc0il (Dec 31, 2007)

Central NH is doing very well right now! I estimate 4" and still coming down at a good clip.


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## JD (Dec 31, 2007)

4-6 in town.


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## danny p (Dec 31, 2007)

6"-8" on the ground here in northeast dutchess county!!  more on the way tomorrow.  as mentioned previously on AZ this has to be one of the best calendar years for snow ever, between last spring and this killer, killer, killer december.  I'm using my snowshoes i got for christmas tomorrow, gonna go find some lines in my backyard!!  better not find anyone on my lines! :wink:


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## danny p (Dec 31, 2007)

checkout these season snow totals as of this morning from snocountry.com:

Jay Peak - 204"
Stowe - 145"
Smuggs - 137"
Sugarbush - 110"
Killington - 101"
MRG - 99"
Mt. Snow - 54"


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## wa-loaf (Dec 31, 2007)

6+ here and still snowing, radar shows one more heavy band coming through.

There's another storm watch for tomorrow and they're predicting another 6-12". Might be a good night to head over to Wachusett.


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## WJenness (Dec 31, 2007)

wa-loaf said:


> 6+ here and still snowing, radar shows one more heavy band coming through.
> 
> There's another storm watch for tomorrow and they're predicting another 6-12". Might be a good night to head over to Wachusett.



Do you know what the timing is supposed to be tomorrow? I've got a fencing tournament at Noon in Waltham, and after that, I was thinking of heading out to Wa... My skis are at Mountainside already (dropped them off Thursday night for a fresh coat of wax), might be a nice night for some turns... assuming the lifts keep running.

-w


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## Euler (Dec 31, 2007)

The snow just stopped here in the Mt. Snow Valley and it looks like we got a good 8-10 inches.  It's a pretty dry, fluffy snow.  Another foot coming tomorrow afternoon/night!!!


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## wa-loaf (Dec 31, 2007)

WJenness said:


> Do you know what the timing is supposed to be tomorrow? I've got a fencing tournament at Noon in Waltham, and after that, I was thinking of heading out to Wa... My skis are at Mountainside already (dropped them off Thursday night for a fresh coat of wax), might be a nice night for some turns... assuming the lifts keep running.
> 
> -w



...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING... ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THIS HEAVY SNOW WARNING INCLUDES NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS... AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL TAPER OFF BY MID OR LATE MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.

TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT EARLY THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF POOR VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. ALLOW EXTRA TRAVEL TIME IF YOU MUST DRIVE.

A SECOND STORM HAS PROMPTED THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WATCH AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TRAVEL DELAYS WEDNESDAY MORNING.


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## KingM (Dec 31, 2007)

Another 6+ here in the MRV and still snowing. I really want to hit SB today, but the two younger kids only have MRG passes and they'll kill me if I go without them while they're out of school, so its looks like I'm forced to go back there yet again. Poor me.


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## loafer89 (Dec 31, 2007)

This has to be one of the worst NOAA forecasting errors I have ever seen, they should go back to meteorology school. We have about 2-3" of slop on the ground.

Extremely disapointing especially running back from Saddleback for nothing.


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## loafer89 (Dec 31, 2007)

Another forecast and the day before they still have no clue:

THAT SAID...A LOT COULD GO WRONG WITH THIS FORECAST. AM QUITE
CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERAL THINGS. FIRST OF ALL...THE UKMET MODEL
CONTINUES TO ALSO BE CONSISTENT...SHOWING SURFACE DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...AT 00Z WED WHICH RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A
987 MB LOW AS IT HEADS NE TO THE S OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE 12-HOUR 500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS ARE TREMENDOUS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AS VERY COLD
THICKNESSES BARREL EASTWARD OVER VIRGINIA. THIS MIGHT SUGGEST THAT
THE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR 700 MB LOW DEVELOPMENT MIGHT BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY MODELED ON THE GFS OR ECMWF.

ALSO IN THE SAME CAMP AS THE UKMET IS THE 00Z NAM WHICH HAS STRONG
DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET AND ITS MAXIMUM VERTICAL MOTION IS
PERFECTLY IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. *THE **NAM** WOULD LEAD TO
A FOOT OF SNOW OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...FROM
BOSTON TO HARTFORD NORTHWARD.* ALSO UNNERVING IS THE FACT THAT THE
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W TUE EVENING. IRONICALLY...IN
THE PAST SEVERAL STORMS THOUGH...THE ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED IN TIME
CLOSER TO THE POSITION OF THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN AND NOT THE OTHER
WAY AROUND.


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## Zand (Dec 31, 2007)

B.U.S.T.

We maybe got 2-3" here. It wasn't even all snow last night. Hell, even Boston was supposed to be mainly snow and it was 37 and raining when I went to bed. I wonder if they even got the record?


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## wa-loaf (Dec 31, 2007)

There were about six here, but there's so much water in it, it's already settled to about 4.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 31, 2007)

A skiff of snow in Allentown..1.5 inches at Blue mountain..Apparently 4 inches at Camelback..


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