# Cold Snap and Flakes on the Way for Tue-Wed



## powderfreak (Oct 18, 2008)

Confidence is rising on a quick 1-2 day cold snap that could bring flakes
all the way to the valley floor and accumulations to the hills.  Ski areas
will also likely be testing the snowmaking systems during this cold snap.  A
cold front will push through during the day on Tuesday with a surface low
riding along the front through NNE/S.Que.  It is behind this low where the
excitement will be...a cyclonic NNW flow will impact the North Country later
in the day on Tuesday and Tuesday night causing upslope precipitation...with
critical temps/thicknesses easily supporting elevation snow.  It should even
get cold enough for some mixed rain/snow showers Tuesday evening/night in
the larger valleys.  

This time of year, to get flakes in the valleys I like to see 850 temps of
-6C to -8C. GFS and the Canadian are quite cold with 850mb temps down to
-12C, but I think this is just their mid-range cold bias; I figure we'll
peak near -8C which is cold enough to support snow to the ski area bases in
central/northern VT and Adirondacks.  This cold will come in quickly during
the day on Tuesday with falling temps in the mountains, and steady to slowly
falling temps in the valleys.  

There will not be a ton of moisture to work with, but I'm expecting .25-.33"
of liquid along the immediate spine of the Green Mountains from Sugarbush to
Jay Peak after it becomes cold enough to snow.  Elevations above 2,500ft
could experience a flash-freeze so I'm not really worried about getting snow
to accumulate up there...it will start to stick as soon as it changes.  I'm
thinking 2-4" above 2,500ft.  Between 1,500-2,500ft wet ground and 32-34F
temps will lead to slower accumulation...expect 1-2".  Below 1,500ft
accumulations could still occur, with a coating-1" possible anywhere above
800ft.  Below 800ft, probably isn't happening but if you get a heavier
shower on Tue Night it could briefly whiten elevated surfaces.       

Precipitation tapers off as flurries early Wed morning in the upslope
regions and the junkboards should be out Wednesday AM.  Wednesday will be
the coldest day of the season with highs in the 30s mtns to low 40s larger
valleys.  With high pressure overhead on Wednesday night, we'll see
widespread teens and 20s for lows.  I'm guessing most mountains will be
testing the snowmaking systems on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the
airmass dries out.

-Scott

Mansfield forecast from NWS...nice to see "snow likely" showing back up and
a sub-freezing high on Wednesday:

Tuesday: Rain showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37.
Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth
and quarter of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of
precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of
precipitation is 30%.


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## roark (Oct 18, 2008)

Bring it.


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## RootDKJ (Oct 18, 2008)

roark said:


> Bring it.


+1  Bring it fiercely


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Oct 18, 2008)

Scott your forecasts are always sick!!!!!


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## riverc0il (Oct 18, 2008)

Nice to see the first powderfreak snow forecast thread of the season. Cheers, Scott :beer:

Any chance this stuff will hit the Whites? Say... Cannon? Jay is going to be a tough haul for 2-4" chance and likely nothing posted to verify in the early A.M.... I might be able to stomach a dawn patrol to Cannon Wednesday morning to roll the dice on some turns plus get back to town for work at a somewhat reasonable hour.... :lol:


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## skiing is life (Oct 18, 2008)

how far south can we exept the snowline to be and at what elevation?


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## powderfreak (Oct 18, 2008)

riverc0il said:


> Nice to see the first powderfreak snow forecast thread of the season. Cheers, Scott :beer:
> 
> Any chance this stuff will hit the Whites? Say... Cannon? Jay is going to be a tough haul for 2-4" chance and likely nothing posted to verify in the early A.M.... I might be able to stomach a dawn patrol to Cannon Wednesday morning to roll the dice on some turns plus get back to town for work at a somewhat reasonable hour.... :lol:



Yeah, I've been focusing on VT a lot lately but I definitely think the Whites will have some snow, too.  Bretton Woods, Wildcat, and Cannon would be the spots to watch here as I usually note some snow at those areas on a NNW flow.  I'll try to fine-tune this tomorrow night or Monday but I'd feel comfortable forecasting 1-3" at those northern areas.  There are indications that wrap around moisture might be more prevalent in NNH than VT, so that might mitigate the better upslope in VT.  

Personally, I think Jay Peak will be the winner here.  Furthest north (closest to deep moisture and colder temps) and the mountain produces great orographic lift on its own.

-Scott


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## powderfreak (Oct 18, 2008)

skiing is life said:


> how far south can we exept the snowline to be and at what elevation?



Well when the cold front moves through everyone should see some rain showers but by the time cold enough air moves in to turn it to snow, the precipitation should mainly be focused across the northern tier (mostly in upslope regions).  I could see a few snow showers all the way down to southern Vermont later on Tuesday/ Tuesday night but with no accumulation.

Everyone would be cold enough for snow on Tuesday night, but precipitation will again be focused along the northern Adirondacks, western slopes of the northern Greens, and northern Whites.  I bet accumulating snow gets down to Killington (1-3" above 2,000ft) but south of there its just flurries or a stray snow shower.


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## riverc0il (Oct 19, 2008)

powderfreak said:


> Yeah, I've been focusing on VT a lot lately but I definitely think the Whites will have some snow, too.  Bretton Woods, Wildcat, and Cannon would be the spots to watch here as I usually note some snow at those areas on a NNW flow.  I'll try to fine-tune this tomorrow night or Monday but I'd feel comfortable forecasting 1-3" at those northern areas.  There are indications that wrap around moisture might be more prevalent in NNH than VT, so that might mitigate the better upslope in VT.
> 
> Personally, I think Jay Peak will be the winner here.  Furthest north (closest to deep moisture and colder temps) and the mountain produces great orographic lift on its own.
> 
> -Scott


Thanks for the update on NNH. I have no data to back this up, but from my own personal experience, for some reason NH's higher peaks usually do really well with these early dumps in late October and early November. Wildcat hit the jackpot two seasons in a row in October in the recent past I have earned turns early season at Cannon more often than not since I started skinning. It all melts before it counts, but I think NH has snow fall much more on par to VT during these early months versus later in the season when it is not even close except for select systems.


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## Warp Daddy (Oct 19, 2008)

as always thanks pow freak !!


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## bvibert (Oct 19, 2008)

Awesome!  Thanks for the forecast Scott!


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## Moe Ghoul (Oct 19, 2008)

Thanks, this thread and the Mt Sno thread gave me my first official ski woody for the season! Shwing!


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## awf170 (Oct 19, 2008)

riverc0il said:


> I might be able to stomach a dawn patrol to Cannon Wednesday morning to roll the dice on some turns plus get back to town for work at a somewhat reasonable hour.... :lol:



I might actually be stupid enough to join you on this if Cannon picks up a few inches.  I'll get back to you on Tuesday.


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## powderfreak (Oct 19, 2008)

awf170 said:


> I might actually be stupid enough to join you on this if Cannon picks up a few inches.  I'll get back to you on Tuesday.



If the 12z GFS is correct, it'll be more than a couple inches.  GFS is now much further south and slightly wetter with its solution.  I'm going to wait a couple of runs to see if there's any continuity but I'd have to increase snowfall if this were correct (especially in the Whites as Atlantic moisture gets involved).

-Scott


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## riverc0il (Oct 19, 2008)

Boo yea. Whites pulling it in for the early season! Keep us posted. I'd like to see half a foot to truly make a dawn patrol worth the supreme effort and early wake up call. Though a minimum of 4" would make it a questionable call. All depends how low in elevation the temp break is between full on snow versus mixing or limited snow.


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## billski (Oct 19, 2008)

All is well in the world again.  
This picture is suitable for framing.....


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## powderfreak (Oct 21, 2008)

This is most likely over-done, but so nice to see snow accums in the gridded
database...

NWS forecast for Mt Mansfield:

Today: Rain showers before 2pm, then rain and snow showers between 2pm and
3pm, then snow showers after 3pm. High near 35. South wind between 7 and 9
mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1
to 2 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow showers. Low around 28. East wind between 14 and 16 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches
possible.

Wednesday: Snow showers likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near
29. North wind between 15 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New
snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

-Scott


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## billski (Oct 21, 2008)

powderfreak said:


> This is most likely over-done, but so nice to see snow accums in the gridded
> database...
> 
> NWS forecast for Mt Mansfield:
> ...



If I had the time, I'd take a lawn chair and a brew to the top of Mani, and sit there while it comes down.  I would be like a child on Christmas morning.  Then I'd junkboard down...


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## skiing is life (Oct 21, 2008)

can i exepct snow as far south as my location? (central western massachusetts)?


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## riverc0il (Oct 21, 2008)

powderfreak said:


> This is most likely over-done, but so nice to see snow accums in the gridded
> database...
> 
> NWS forecast for Mt Mansfield:
> ...


Four total on the low end is nice. Cold temps lately too so hopefully the ground at elevation will be cold enough so that it mostly sticks. Any ideas on how much melting will occur Wednesday afternoon after the snow stops? With that much snow and with cold enough temps, I may go for an afternoon instead of dawn patrol.


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## riverc0il (Oct 21, 2008)

I don't like the precip map or the NECN forecast. Obviously, there will be snow but I am not convinced it will be enough to get up at 4am for. I will check back tomorrow for first hand reports and may consider leaving work early for a late afternoon skin. Johnskismore.... I am looking for your report!!


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## billski (Oct 21, 2008)

it's blue'n in maine and adk's at 1030pm...


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## dmc (Oct 22, 2008)

Snowing this morning when I left Hunter at 4AM....  nothing on the ground but accumulating on cars...

nice...


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## Euler (Oct 22, 2008)

My son and I let out a big cheer when we saw our first flakes of the 08-09 snow season this morning on the way to school.  Nothing on the ground in the Mt. Snow valley, but the tree tops are white up on the ridgelines!!!!


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## billski (Oct 22, 2008)

sweet season opener!


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## Johnskiismore (Oct 25, 2008)

Blowing snow weather early next week!


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## bvibert (Oct 26, 2008)

Just saw this in the local forecast:



> Chance of Light Snow Showers



First time of the season for down here.


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## billski (Oct 27, 2008)

bvibert said:


> Just saw this in the local forecast:
> 
> 
> 
> First time of the season for down here.



Ayup.  getting near the time for the first SUV rollover of the seasons down in the flatlands....   :blink:

(it's interesting, even with all the stability control systems and other safety features, SUVs still account for 75% of all rollovers.  Source: IIHS, 2008)


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## Glenn (Oct 27, 2008)

billski said:


> Ayup.  getting near the time for the first SUV rollover of the seasons down in the flatlands....   :blink:
> 
> (it's interesting, even with all the stability control systems and other safety features, SUVs still account for 75% of all rollovers.  Source: IIHS, 2008)



People don't understand basic physics.....and they'll end up blaming the SUV and suing the vehicle maker. :blink:  "I thought it would corner like a Miata!" 

:smash:


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## billski (Oct 27, 2008)

Glenn said:


> People don't understand basic physics.....and they'll end up blaming the SUV and suing the vehicle maker. :blink:  "I thought it would corner like a Miata!"
> 
> :smash:



so I'll rephrase:  "75% of all rollovers are caused by SUV DRIVERS".   :smash:


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## Glenn (Oct 27, 2008)

billski said:


> so I'll rephrase:  "75% of all rollovers are caused by SUV DRIVERS".   :smash:




I like it! :grin:


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