# Snow Forecast for Friday



## powderfreak (Sep 30, 2008)

On Friday night at the Meatheads party, I was asked about snow and said I
feel confident we *see* white up top by this weekend...now, whether or not
its snow or rime is still up in the air.  BUT, all heads should be turned to
the highest elevations come Friday morning.  This post is aimed at the
S'bush-Jay corridor in VT.

The idea of an early season nor'easter has been scratched, as the upper
level trough  forces a weak surface low too far n/e of us to matter. 
However, this large cut-off upper level low will be sitting just to our
north in Quebec...the PSU E-Wall GFS has this at -3 S.D. over southern
Quebec and with heights that low, it will certainly support freezing temps
down to 3K feet.  My rule of thumb for snow levels is to forecast it
750-1,000ft below freezing levels, so ~2,000ft with this event in N.VT.    

Temperatures: Going off the mass fields of the GFS, the timing is perfect
for early season snow as it swings the H5 trough through/south of our area
Thursday evening with showers continuing into Friday morning.  Our summit
level temps plummet to as low as -5C north of 89 and -3C south by early
Friday.  I do think the GFS is a little too extreme here and would plan on
modifying that up 1-2C.  Critical thicknesses support higher elevation snow
beginning near 12a Fri, dropping to 2K feet briefly near 4-6am, then heading
back towards 4K feet by 10-11am.  It is interesting to note, the EURO is
about 12 hours later with this feature and extends the cold through the
weekend.  I'll fine tune timing for you boys tomorrow and Thursday.  

Precipitation: Here's my concern...we're not going to have any synoptic
precipitation to work with and will have to use meso-scale forcing to get
showers.  With this early season cold, Lake Ontario will start producin'. 
Cold pool aloft and 40kts at H85 will also initiate showers over the higher
terrain.  Mean low level flow is out of the WSW and not north...so this will
not have our usual NW upslope flow.  Whenever we see these WSW flows, here's
how it goes down...showers spark off Ontario and track across the 'Dacks,
deposit snow, dry out as they downslope into the CPV, then explode again
over the Green Mtn spine.

Bottom Line: Rain showers will mix and change to snow showers above 2,500ft
on Thursday night, with a trace to 2" accumulation expected above 3,000ft by
noon Friday especially north of 89.  At MRG and Sugarbush, I do think the
summits see flakes though if I was looking for any real accumulation at all
I'd head towards Mansfield/Jay where the cold is a little deeper.

I'll have more concise follow up forecasts as we get closer to the
event...primarily for our Junkboarders.  I don't think I'll be heading out
for this *event* but I know some will want to head up.  For first tracks
in E.US this season, I'd watch the Adirondacks, there is definitely the
chance for more like 2-4" atop Whiteface's auto road come Friday morning.

First tracks of the season are up for grabs!

-Scott


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## Greg (Sep 30, 2008)

Woo-effin-hoo!


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## WJenness (Sep 30, 2008)

Music to my ears!

Thanks!

-w


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## bvibert (Sep 30, 2008)

You lost me somewhere in the second paragraph, but that was enough for me!   I'm hoping to see some pictures of white on Friday!


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## powderfreak (Sep 30, 2008)

bvibert said:


> You lost me somewhere in the second paragraph, but that was enough for me!   I'm hoping to see some pictures of white on Friday!



Depending on how clear the view is, this is a distinct possibility.


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## ski_resort_observer (Sep 30, 2008)

Called it last week...
http://forums.alpinezone.com/36926-snow-next-week.html   ....:wink:


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## WJenness (Sep 30, 2008)

I heart cold.






-w


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## Johnskiismore (Sep 30, 2008)

Swwweeettt


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## RootDKJ (Oct 1, 2008)

bvibert said:


> You lost me somewhere in the second paragraph, but that was enough for me!   I'm hoping to see some pictures of white on Friday!


+1  same here.  nice forecast however!


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## ComeBackMudPuddles (Oct 1, 2008)

powderfreak said:


> [. . .]  For first tracks
> in E.US this season, I'd watch the Adirondacks, there is definitely the
> chance for more like 2-4" atop Whiteface's auto road come Friday morning.
> 
> ...




Boooooooo-YEAH!!!

As you can see in this picture by HPD he posted earlier this year on skiADK.com, the new terrain on WF's brand spankin' new mountain is really close to the toll road.  Let's ski!


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## billski (Oct 2, 2008)

*Random, random:  Too hot, Ullr Sacrifices, do presidents ski?*

thanks for the encouraging words Scott.  I'm getting damn tired of all this HOT weather.  My annual flowers should have all croaked and been pulled by now.  The flower-ometer is not a good sign.  What to do with the damn mum flowerpot we got as a gift - I was going to plant it, but the annuals won't die.

I am hoping that the old timer adage plays out:  "we will pay for this good weather later".  I hope it's true (meteorology aside....)  I think it's time to start the sacrifices to Ullr this year.  I think I'll start with the road kill first.

Just as well I'm swamped at work right now, so there's no time  to worry about it.  Get everything done so when the junkboarding is done, I'm going out!

Random thought - do either of our presidential candidates ski?  Oops, sorry, no politics....


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## powderfreak (Oct 2, 2008)

I'm writing these forecasts for a few friends who are trying to get first tracks on the EC for the winter...for most of us, its just nice to see snow in the forecast though!

This is a tough call...because I know for you guys the difference between a
trace of wet flakes and even an inch on the upper Toll Road, is the
difference between turns and no turns.  Trace-2" is still the forecast for
the northern summits of the Green Mountains but I'm leaning closer towards
the trace side of things.

I still think Mansfield and some of the highest summits will be riming
tonight from 3,800ft on up, based on progged cloud deck and freezing levels.
 Whether or not we get accumulating snow will depend on if we can realize
any precipitation tonight over the peaks.  H85 temps will be sub-zero and
thicknesses fall below the critical 540dm...leading me to believe any precip
that falls tonight will be in the form of flakes above 3,000ft.    

Another shortwave and front is moving across upstate NY right now from
Massena to Buffalo, and should plow through here in the next few hours.  Its
easily seen on WV and IR presentations, and is sparking some showers off
Lake Ontario into the Adirondacks.  Behind this front is our cold air aloft.
 The problem is, upstream I'm not seeing much in the way of precipitation
(except some Lake Effect in the upper GL region)...so the chances for
snowfall tonight rest on whether or not Lake Ontario fires up enough to
stretch it eastward into VT.  

Warm, wet ground, 32-34F temps, and lighter/showery precipitation goes
against appreciable accumulation.  However, I'll be watching the radar this
evening to see what happens after this shortwave rolls through this afternoon.

I'll get another post out around dinner-time for you guys.

-Scott


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## powderfreak (Oct 2, 2008)

I'm still looking at snow late tonight and tomorrow through noon above 3,000ft.  Below is the NWS discussion issued this afternoon and I agree with all of it.  We'll have a 500mb vort max and shortwave moving across Lake Ontario late tonight and tomorrow morning.  New model guidance has this producing up to .25" of liquid along the northern Green Mtn spine between 6am-noon.  The timing of this feature is such that it'll occur during the diurnal temperature minimum.  

I'm going to stick with trace - 2" above 3,000ft by noon tomorrow.  If one were to head up looking for white grass turns, I'd head up as high as possible...and the further north you go, the better chance of appreciable snowfall (Whiteface and Jay have the best shot at >2").  Mid-late morning would probably be the best time.

From the NWS this afternoon...

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE
ENHANCED BAND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MID LEVEL TEMPS FALL
CONSIDERABLY BELOW FREEZING SO FEEL THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE
THAT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET...WILL SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. AGAIN THIS WILL MAINLY BE ABOVE 3000 FEET...
WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE LEVEL. 

-Scott


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## billski (Oct 3, 2008)

*Snow!*

stowe is showing off it's stuff
oct 3rd snow!  
perfect birthday present for me!

http://www.stowe.com/mountain/photo_gallery.php


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## ComeBackMudPuddles (Oct 3, 2008)

billski said:


> stowe is showing off it's stuff
> oct 3rd snow!
> perfect birthday present for me!





AWESOME!!!

Like this shot, too.....


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## billski (Oct 3, 2008)

*wahoo!*



ComeBackMudPuddles said:


> AWESOME!!!
> 
> Like this shot, too.....



They're just uploading them now.  That pic wasn't there 5 mins ago.


Suspended bike ops.  Hmm.  seems like a color change is due somewhere on the web :-o  hint, hint, nudge, nudge....


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## Moe Ghoul (Oct 3, 2008)

billski said:


> They're just uploading them now.  That pic wasn't there 5 mins ago.
> 
> 
> Suspended bike ops.  Hmm.  seems like a color change is due somewhere on the web :-o  hint, hint, nudge, nudge....



Nourishing the ski stoke up to a 7.6. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.......... thanks for posting those shots!


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## billski (Oct 3, 2008)

:-o
Sugarbush is reporting 1"


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## tjf67 (Oct 3, 2008)

snow covering the high peaks in the ADK.  To foggy for me to see on the drive over to malone today.  Hopefully when I am driving back in I will catcha glimps this afternoon.


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## Greg (Oct 3, 2008)

Courtesy of Lostone on SkiMRV:


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## bvibert (Oct 3, 2008)

Greg said:


> Courtesy of Lostone on SkiMRV:



Sweetness!  Thanks!


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## billski (Oct 3, 2008)

bvibert said:


> Sweetness!  Thanks!




wowza!


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## WJenness (Oct 3, 2008)

Thanks Greg (and everyone else), those look awesome.

-w


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Oct 3, 2008)

ComeBackMudPuddles said:


> AWESOME!!!
> 
> Like this shot, too.....



Serious Stoke!!!


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## billski (Oct 4, 2008)

*It's official - Houston, we have snow at the stake!*

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                               
158 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2008
...
MOUNT MANSFIELD DATA:

HIGH TEMPERATURE....36 DEGREES
LOW TEMPERATURE.....26 DEGREES
PRECIPITATION.......0.22 INCHES
SNOWFALL............1.0 INCHES
SNOW AT THE STAKE...TRACE

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/BTV/CLIBTV


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## Johnskiismore (Oct 4, 2008)

Oh man these pictures look great!  Have some pictures of Mount Washington I'll post, and check out this link for the Mount Washington Observatory:

Snow Snow Snow


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Oct 4, 2008)

Johnskiismore said:


> Oh man these pictures look great!  Have some pictures of Mount Washington I'll post, and check out this link for the Mount Washington Observatory:
> 
> Snow Snow Snow



Your lnk doesn't work...you mean this picture of somebody earning some turns up on the autoroad.  http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/comments/2008/100318-lg.jpg


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## hardline (Oct 7, 2008)

it is finally comming. da freak it posting weather. i have got the fleece out. and there are pics of snow in the the north country. FKNA


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## SKIQUATTRO (Oct 7, 2008)

ohhhhhhh yea....just landed back in NY from a 3 day surf trip to San Fran....now I'm looking at snow on here...unreal!!!!


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## billski (Oct 7, 2008)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> ohhhhhhh yea....just landed back in NY from a 3 dayeal!!!!



I am sorry
I hope you have repented


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## Greg (Oct 7, 2008)

billski said:


> I am sorry
> I hope you have repented



Wow. You're really hatin' on everything that doesn't fit "your" idea of happiness lately, huh...? :roll:


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## billski (Oct 7, 2008)

Greg said:


> Wow. You're really hatin' on everything that doesn't fit "your" idea of happiness lately, huh...? :roll:


sarcastic humor just doesn't come through on the bits a bytes, even with or without smilies.  We need AZ videoconferencing


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## ski_resort_observer (Oct 7, 2008)

billski said:


> sarcastic humor just doesn't come through on the bits a bytes, even with or without smilies.  We need AZ videoconferencing



Well, you do have to actually put them in your post for them to at least have a chance of working but I agree, even when you do they might not work. :wink: :lol: :wink: :lol:


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## Greg (Oct 8, 2008)

billski said:


> sarcastic humor just doesn't come through on the bits a bytes, even with or without smilies.  We need AZ videoconferencing





ski_resort_observer said:


> Well, you do have to actually put them in your post for them to at least have a chance of working but I agree, even when you do they might not work. :wink: :lol: :wink: :lol:



A couple schools of thought on this:


If there is no winkie, it means you're serious.
If there is a winkie, it still probably means you're serious.
Come on. We all know a winkie is just a free pass to post what you _really _feel... :lol:


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Oct 8, 2008)

billski said:


> sarcastic humor just doesn't come through on the bits a bytes, even with or without smilies.  We need AZ videoconferencing



Hell Yeah...I already have a nanny cam..


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