# Incoming!!!!!



## watkin (Nov 7, 2013)

Just a model run to hit us late next week.  Lets hope its fully realizes!!


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## hammer (Nov 7, 2013)

Do we need a "speculation" thread for this one?


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## xwhaler (Nov 7, 2013)

Catskills would make out well if this verified


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## St. Bear (Nov 7, 2013)

Ah man, my skis are up in NH!


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## Puck it (Nov 7, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Ah man, my skis are up in NH!



Why?  You never separate the skier from his skis.


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## St. Bear (Nov 7, 2013)

Puck it said:


> Why? You never separate the skier from his skis.



Because they're generally not needed down here for late season and early season.  I figure that anytime after April, the next time I'd need them would be up in NH again, so no need to transport.

Yet another reason to move back to NH.  Hopefully next year at this time I won't be having this dilemma.


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## Puck it (Nov 7, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Because they're generally not needed down here for late season and early season. I figure that anytime after April, the next time I'd need them would be up in NH again, so no need to transport.
> 
> Yet another reason to move back to NH. Hopefully next year at this time I won't be having this dilemma.




Like I said!!!! Never separate the skier from his skis.


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## St. Bear (Nov 7, 2013)

Rookie mistake, I know.  I'm still young, I'll learn.


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## Puck it (Nov 7, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Rookie mistake, I know. I'm still young, I'll learn.



I will take a pic of the inside of the FJ and show you what a professional does.


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## St. Bear (Nov 7, 2013)

What would it take to open more trails at Killington?  5"?  10"?


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## Puck it (Nov 7, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> What would it take to open more trails at Killington? 5"? 10"?



Poach or Non Poached?  Or possibly over easy?


Some trials can get by with about 5" like Upper Ridge and others on Snowden.  10" would put a lot into play.


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## Nick (Nov 7, 2013)

Saw this earlier, let's keep fingers crossed


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## ScottySkis (Nov 7, 2013)

Powder days please.


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## drjeff (Nov 7, 2013)

If it busts, blame me!! :lol:  I have an appointment (made 2 weeks ago BTW) to get the snowtires put on one of my families vehicles this coming Monday, and on my lists of chores to do this coming weekend is put the patio furniture away and get the snowblower ready for the season. That might be just far too much "anti snow" karma to allow this potential storm to happen


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## St. Bear (Nov 7, 2013)

This model run put snow in the forecast for the first time this season at my house!

[h=3]Wed Nov 13[/h]
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





 39[SUP]°[/SUP]
26[SUP]°[/SUP]
Snow Shower

Chance of snow:40%Wind:N at 7 mph Details


[h=3]Thu Nov 14[/h]
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




 43[SUP]°[/SUP]
30[SUP]°[/SUP]
Snow Shower

Chance of snow:40%Wind:NE at 10 mph Details


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## andrec10 (Nov 7, 2013)

drjeff said:


> If it busts, blame me!! :lol:  I have an appointment (made 2 weeks ago BTW) to get the snowtires put on one of my families vehicles this coming Monday, and on my lists of chores to do this coming weekend is put the patio furniture away and get the snowblower ready for the season. That might be just far too much "anti snow" karma to allow this potential storm to happen




So we will just blame you!


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## ScottySkis (Nov 7, 2013)

Platty powder day lets hit the Cats and everyone.


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## Nick (Nov 7, 2013)

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...-set-stage-for/19688258#.Unu87NhSbBo.facebook


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## Tin (Nov 7, 2013)

This thread just sealed it for me. Was thinking about spending next weekend at K for my birthday with the girlfriend...well I just booked at room at the Long Trail lol


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## 4aprice (Nov 7, 2013)

I'll believe it when I see it.  OTOH I am scheduled to be in Vermont (Castleton) next weekend, the ski's are at the shop getting their pre-season tune, and I could be ready to go at the drop of a hat.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## 4aprice (Nov 7, 2013)

I'll believe it when I see it.  OTOH I am scheduled to be in Vermont (Castleton) next weekend, the ski's are at the shop getting their pre-season tune, and I could be ready to go at the drop of a hat.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## The Sneak (Nov 7, 2013)

Whoever gets the goods within a 4 hr radius of southern RI and are spinning a chair. Rock skis are ready.


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## catsup948 (Nov 7, 2013)

This storm is going to get the hype machine rolling! Great snowmaking weather before the potential storm.  Would be a great opening weekend for several southern Vermont mountains! This is a ways out but the pattern will be pretty good for a potential early season storm.  A big miss would be a waste! I say pouring rain near the coast and big storm for interior northeast!  Fingers crossed!


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## ZYDECORICH (Nov 8, 2013)

If this does happen it could get dicey down my way. Any heavy amounts could start snapping branches on the oaks which still have plenty of leaves on them. I'm all for the snow but we did this two years ago with no power for 7 days. I could do without that again.


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## Puck it (Nov 8, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Rookie mistake, I know. I'm still young, I'll learn.



Here is what a professional's vehicle look like, so you can leave on a moment's notice.  Gloves, helmet and googles are in a basket behind front seat. Poles are underneath the skis.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 8, 2013)

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/ind...discussion&groupid=8&topicid=52170&Itemid=179

[h=2]Euro Morning Jackpot ! Perfect Spot for Snow![/h]   	

 Back to group
 View all discussions
 All members
 
          	Share this 



 
 		      		     			 				 				 				Good morning all,

*Blog theme song... I won't back down (Tom Petty)*

Well I won't back down, no I won't back down
You could stand me up at the gates of *model town*
But I won't back down

Gonna stand my ground, won't be turned around
And I'll keep this *GFS* from draggin' me down
Gonna stand my ground and I won't back down​
_[Chorus:]_
Hey baby, there ain't no easy way out
Hey I will stand my ground
And I won't back down​ 
 The model is so on right now as the  upgraded GFS battles the very good mid range Euro and if you want snow  in a few days the Euro is the way to go. The run from just a few hours  ago is about as perfect as you can get for a mid November snowstorm and  ya gotta start to wonder about how these two models  3 runs in a row are  going the opposite direction right now. here is a look at the Euro...


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## ScottySkis (Nov 8, 2013)

So  we have the Euro with the "nor'easter" idea holding steady and the GFS  saying huh what storm.  Now as a forecaster you have to go with the  trending of the models and see how things will start to play out early  next week to wet-up mid week.

 MY THINKING ON THE EURO THIS MORNING...

 Ya just gotta give this  model credit plain and simple. Sure we'll see that track bounce around a  bit the next few days but man it has that nor'easter lined up a few  runs in a row now and knows exactly how it wants to play this out.  The  GFS will have an important run today that will show us how good or bad  this model has become. We will look back at this blog about 150 hours  from now and see what really goes down as far as the November Nor'easter  of 2013.

 Have fun with all the model  watching it's why you love weather in the first place....ahhh the chase  of the storm...the unknown and the anticipation of it all.

 We all love snow but can we  get a SNOW DAY...that is the question and if you follow the EURO this  morning the answer would be YES.  This model run did get my attention a  bit more this morning not for the fact that it has snow, it's the model  run after a model run of a nasty nor'easter. THINK SNOW!


				 				  				 				 				Blog started by rob guarino , on 1 hour ago				
 				 			 		     		  		 							  	 		You need to be a member of this group before you can participate in this discussion







Victor C 
 	              This storm does look perfect but what storm is lol?!?! Sunday, we will see the merge of both models and have a 1-3 on grass.  		            
 		 	 	 			 		3 minutes ago		 		                  			 		 	





Rob Brown 
 	              I'm back!  Wow, it's been a while  since last winter but it seems our first winter storm is on the horizon.   Rob - so do you see the GFS catching up with the euro?  Which model  are you favoring? 		            
 		 	 	 			 		36 minutes ago		 		                  			 		 	





Marcus wild 
 	              Today gonna be interesting at the  12z.  00z euro ens were pretty east of the op.  We may lose this one  today.  We'll see around 2pm! 		            
 		 	 	 			 		38 minutes ago		 		                  			 		 	





Nick  
 	              Hahah we got a chance Aaron Rogers is hurt 		            
 		 	 	 			 		53 minutes ago		 		                  			 		 	





rob guarino 
 	              Eagles win over the Packers than a snowstorm lock….Now that would be a Sunday Funday 		            
 		 	 	 			 		1 hour ago		 		                  			 		 	





Nick  
 	              Wow the fight continues!  		            
 		 	 	 			 		1 hour ago		 		                  			 		 	





Neversnowsinpa 
 	              I almost edited to say that Scoopy. LOL


 		 	 	 			 		1 hour ago		 		                  			 		 	





scoopy 
 	              We lock in after the Eagles WIN Sunday.......Neversnowinpa...lol 		            
 		 	 	 			 		1 hour ago		 		                  			 		 	





Neversnowsinpa 
 	              Well, this surely seems to be getting interesting. New GFS, same as the old GFS? Euro holding court again.

But, there is still time for adjustment. 

When do you think we start locking in, Sunday after Eagles game? 		            
 		 	 	 			 		1 hour ago		 		                  			 		 	




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## St. Bear (Nov 8, 2013)

Puck it said:


> Here is what a professional's vehicle look like, so you can leave on a moment's notice. Gloves, helmet and googles are in a basket behind front seat. Poles are underneath the skis.
> 
> View attachment 9470



Sweet P01's!  The Icelantics don't travel?

The gear on the hangers is a nice touch, though.  I'm in a Mazda3 with a car seat in the back, so it's a little more cramped.


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## Puck it (Nov 8, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Sweet P01's! The Icelantics don't travel?
> 
> The gear on the hangers is a nice touch, though. I'm in a Mazda3 with a car seat in the back, so it's a little more cramped.



No for those or the Skilogiks yet.  The P01's are for the early season.  The truck becomes a two seater for the winter.


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## wa-loaf (Nov 8, 2013)

drjeff said:


> If it busts, blame me!! :lol:  I have an appointment (made 2 weeks ago BTW) to get the snowtires put on one of my families vehicles this coming Monday, and on my lists of chores to do this coming weekend is put the patio furniture away and get the snowblower ready for the season. That might be just far too much "anti snow" karma to allow this potential storm to happen



I'm waiting until December for my snows to cancel you out!


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## emmaurice2 (Nov 8, 2013)

Argh, business trip nowhere near an open mountain.


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## steamboat1 (Nov 8, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> I'm waiting until December for my snows to cancel you out!



X's 2


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## St. Bear (Nov 8, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> I'm waiting until December for my snows to cancel you out!





steamboat1 said:


> X's 2



Don't worry guys, I've got this covered.

My snow tires finally kicked the bucket after last season, and I'm not buying new ones.


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## catsup948 (Nov 9, 2013)

Too much cold dry air makes this a whiff for New England!  This storm is no where near land on a lot of models.  This is far away though things could change. I love getting excited for winter storms again though!


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## wa-loaf (Nov 9, 2013)

catsup948 said:


> Too much cold dry air makes this a whiff for New England!  This storm is no where near land on a lot of models.  This is far away though things could change. I love getting excited for winter storms again though!



Hey, go ruin someone else's party! We're going to grab the most favorable scenario and go with until it goes bust!


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## bigbog (Nov 10, 2013)

Was just so nice to get outside this morning in our all too brief dusting/squall.....:smile:
We get more cold air and flurries from Canada...


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## catsup948 (Nov 11, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> Hey, go ruin someone else's party! We're going to grab the most favorable scenario and go with until it goes bust!


I'm not trying to ruin parties.  I'm just keeping it real! I love tracking storms, this thing has just totally disappeared. I would love if it came back.


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## wa-loaf (Nov 11, 2013)

just going to be some flurries or a dusting tomorrow morning ...


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## Cannonball (Nov 11, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> just going to be some flurries or a dusting tomorrow morning ...



Maybe.   Depends on where you are.  Mt Wash Obs has this to say.....

"Overnight, a strong cold front will cross the region bringing continued summit fog and snow. Conditions are prime for the formation of snow squalls, which may deliver localized moderate to heavy snow along with strong winds that may generate white out conditions overnight. As the cold front passes, temperatures will plummet and winds will increase once again. This will result in a wind chill advisory from sunset today until noon Tuesday. Tuesday, summit fog will linger, but snow showers should taper as drier air works in at the surface from a building ridge of Canadian High pressure. The northwesterly flow ahead of the high will remain strong and keep temperatures well below normal especially considering that it is only mid-November. New snowfall today will be a trace to two inches; overnight will average 1 to 3 inches but areas where squalls form may see several inches to nearly a foot...."


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## Boston Bulldog (Nov 11, 2013)

I'm hearing that the Euro put out a widespread 1-2 inches in the Boston metro area. An accumulating band is supposed to set up over the south shore as a weak low pressure system develops at the tail of the front. 

We shall see...


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## wa-loaf (Nov 11, 2013)

Fortunately I'm working from home tomorrow and won't have to deal with the traffic chaos the first snow of the year will do to the commute.


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## hammer (Nov 11, 2013)

First snow experience for my 16YO daughter tomorrow...in a car that I know won't be good in the snow. :roll:


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## octopus (Nov 11, 2013)

1 to 2 inches? shut down the mass highways immediately!


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## jack97 (Nov 11, 2013)

hammer said:


> First snow experience for my 16YO daughter tomorrow...in a car that I know won't be good in the snow. :roll:



I'm going through that as well......


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## 4aprice (Nov 11, 2013)

1st "Snow Shower" prediction for down here tomorrow am but no accumulation expected, but what is incoming is a nice shot of artic air.  Bastardi on his twitter feed today showed a model prediction of more below average temps coming up for the rest of the month.  Thanksgiving has a shot of being "not too bad".

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## dlague (Nov 11, 2013)

I think this prediction is another bust!  Still keeps the excitement going though!  At best a few dustings!


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## steamboat1 (Nov 11, 2013)

Tuesday- Wednesday*

Brrrrrrrrrrr!!!!


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=43.61258134457082&lon=-72.8177261352539#.UoGCNyd-mQg
*


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## ScottySkis (Nov 11, 2013)

steamboat1 said:


> Tuesday- Wednesday*
> 
> Brrrrrrrrrrr!!!!
> 
> ...



This is great snow making temperatures.


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## ALLSKIING (Nov 11, 2013)

steamboat1 said:


> Tuesday- Wednesday*
> 
> Brrrrrrrrrrr!!!!
> 
> ...


Wish it would stay like that until the middle of March


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## steamboat1 (Nov 11, 2013)

Scotty said:


> This is great snow making temperatures.



Not sure about that. Wind gusts from 40-70mph forecasted for the next couple of days. The trees should see some snow.


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## wa-loaf (Nov 11, 2013)

hammer said:


> First snow experience for my 16YO daughter tomorrow...in a car that I know won't be good in the snow. :roll:





jack97 said:


> I'm going through that as well......



Took my drivers test in a snowstorm. On the way there I spun out 180 degrees, needless to say my dad had white knuckles on the dashboard. Passed the test though!


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## jack97 (Nov 11, 2013)

hammer said:


> First snow experience for my 16YO daughter tomorrow...in a car that I know won't be good in the snow. :roll:





jack97 said:


> I'm going through that as well......





wa-loaf said:


> Took my drivers test in a snowstorm. On the way there I spun out 180 degrees, needless to say my dad had white knuckles on the dashboard. Passed the test though!



Hammer (maybe) and I are going through the mandatory 40 hrs driving with a guardian that all junior operators currently have to go through. The motivation is to have the kids get as much driving time with a "responsible" adult. What I and most parents in the same situation do is have the kid drive to school in the morning, once there, kids get out, parent goes behind the wheel and drives to work. 

Needless to say.... I am dreading the first icy commute to school, I trust my daughter on a near vacant street but you start adding more first time drivers heading toward the same location, that's a recipe for disaster.


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## wa-loaf (Nov 11, 2013)

jack97 said:


> Needless to say.... I am dreading the first icy commute to school, I trust my daughter on a near vacant street but you start adding more first time drivers heading toward the same location, that's a recipe for disaster.



Gotta do the old take em out in a snowy parking lot training. Let them get the feel of a car sliding and what happens when you slam on the brakes.


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## ALLSKIING (Nov 11, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> Gotta do the old take em out in a snowy parking lot training. Let them get the feel of a car sliding and what happens when you slam on the brakes.


That's what I plan on doing when its time for my daughters to drive. My oldest is 15 so its coming....soon.


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## dlague (Nov 12, 2013)

jack97 said:


> Hammer (maybe) and I are going through the mandatory 40 hrs driving with a guardian that all junior operators currently have to go through. The motivation is to have the kids get as much driving time with a "responsible" adult. What I and most parents in the same situation do is have the kid drive to school in the morning, once there, kids get out, parent goes behind the wheel and drives to work.
> 
> Needless to say.... I am dreading the first icy commute to school, I trust my daughter on a near vacant street but you start adding more first time drivers heading toward the same location, that's a recipe for disaster.



Well, our son got experience first hand what going off the road means!  Last winter he was leaving Pats Peak (works there as a ski instructor) on one of the powder days and was heading to another job!  The road conditions were slushy and he thought he could pass everyone because he had a 4 wheel drive Subaru!  300 dollars later he got pulled out and was late for the other job!   He just the car about a week earlier and was 17 at the time!  He was lucky that the snow banks were fresh and soft!  We now have AAA!


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## hammer (Nov 12, 2013)

wa-loaf said:


> Gotta do the old take em out in a snowy parking lot training. Let them get the feel of a car sliding and what happens when you slam on the brakes.


Yup, didn't get that lesson in last winter.

Saw maybe a few snowflakes this morning.  Hoping that the brief cold snap will be good for snowmaking.


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## billski (Nov 12, 2013)

Quick check in from the mini-micro-snowstorm this morning here in the flattest of flatlands.  We were buried!  Awesome 20 minutes of the stuff, sticking to nothing, but frightening the neighborhood into putting snow tires on for the ride around town.  No joke.

Why, oh why must they blare out this 1-2" forecast stuff?   It just frightens the already frightened.  

At least I didn't see any 4x4's tooling around with plow blades on.


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## steamboat1 (Nov 13, 2013)

Still have those 70mph gusts forecasted for Thurs.

I'll be there.


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## 4aprice (Nov 13, 2013)

JB tweeted the cfsv2 this morning showing below avg temps for the next 45 days.  Seeing as we are going into a warm up now says to me that there just might be some good cold air in the pipeline coming this way. (fingers crossed)

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## BenedictGomez (Nov 13, 2013)

I'm getting pretty excited about the potential for this winter.  Lots of circumstantial evidence starting to pile up that this might very well be a > average snowfall year here in the east.


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## ALLSKIING (Nov 14, 2013)

4aprice said:


> JB tweeted the cfsv2 this morning showing below avg temps for the next 45 days.  Seeing as we are going into a warm up now says to me that there just might be some good cold air in the pipeline coming this way. (fingers crossed)
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Looks like starting wed night.  Hope it holds all season!

sent from my S4


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## catsup948 (Nov 14, 2013)

I just want a decent December out here.  It's been several years without a white Christmas here.


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## BenedictGomez (Nov 15, 2013)

Here's another incoming long-range prediction for the northeast, this one from some local amateur (but trained) mets that cover e.Pa and w.NJ.


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## Smellytele (Nov 18, 2013)

Just saw this morning that snowforecast.com is calling for something next weekend. Most weather reports just show flurries...
http://www.snowforecast.com/ - example Killington - http://www.snowforecast.com/resorts/4823-killington-resort


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## billski (Nov 18, 2013)

Yeah, but this weekend, and today in particular were pretty pitiful.  I was sweating up a storm raking leaves yesterday.  I'm usually freezing my butt off.  But I'm with Benedict, it's time to rock.  If the moisture content stays high, elevation conquers all evil!  Hoping to get some turns in the week before xmas and some time up at Magic.


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## St. Bear (Nov 18, 2013)

billski said:


> If the moisture content stays high, elevation conquers all evil!



Not necessarily here on the East coast.


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## billski (Nov 18, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> Not necessarily here on the East coast.



Don't be so positive St. Bear!  
Waaah!  I'm taking my toys and going home.  
This is going to be a great year!  St. Bear stays home and I get all the goods he misses;  I never let rain on the lower elevations stop me!  


All in good jest, of course!


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## St. Bear (Nov 18, 2013)

I don't get antsy about the weather until after the New Year.  If it's raining in Jan/Feb, then I start throwing things.


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## billski (Nov 18, 2013)

St. Bear said:


> I don't get antsy about the weather until after the New Year.  If it's raining in Jan/Feb, then I start throwing things.



I'm taking an optimistic view, which I do every year.  Every pow day in the east is a gift.!


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## dlague (Nov 18, 2013)

Well the first two snowy forecasts that were showing accumulation have been a bust so far - so I will take the wait and see from now on!  Yes we will take the gift when we get it!  

Jay Peak had a great spell of powder in November!


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## 4aprice (Nov 20, 2013)

JB posted (tweeted) the ECMWF this morning.  Will be a fantastic Thanksgiving weekend if it verifies.  Nice hit from the Pocono's to Maine.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## St. Bear (Nov 20, 2013)

4aprice said:


> JB posted (tweeted) the ECMWF this morning. Will be a fantastic Thanksgiving weekend if it verifies. Nice hit from the Pocono's to Maine.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



If everything he tweeted came true, NYC would look like The Day After Tomorrow.


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## catsup948 (Nov 20, 2013)

We haven't had snow on Thanksgiving in years!  Bring it!

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk


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## Abubob (Nov 20, 2013)

Looks good from here:


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## 4aprice (Nov 21, 2013)

ECMWF still looking sweet.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## mriceyman (Nov 21, 2013)

I'll have to make a trip if it dumps


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## ScottySkis (Nov 22, 2013)

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/ind...discussion&groupid=8&topicid=56150&Itemid=179

These guys think next weeks T day storm will be coastal and good for Maine Mtns and a little for the Whites.

Good Morning

 The models are sliding into a Nor'easter solution and we are getting into a locked nor'easter *mode*  but the wild card still remains on the back end of this storm for some  snow.  The GFS has come around to the nor'easter idea on the last two  runs and the other models are on board too.

*HERE IS A QUICK SCORECARD ON THE LATEST RUNS...*

*NAM:* Not in range yet...we'll get a look about 9:30am
*GFS:* Wet with some snow on the back end esp. N & W of I-95 for Philadelphia Baltimore Allentown Reading NYC Metro.
*EURO:* Wet and Wild and like the GFS has some snow on the back end.
*Canadian:* Just like the Euro and GFS it has rain but not as cold for snow on the back end.

 The run the last 12 hours has put the  big three models in close agreement for a nor'easter and it will not  take much to move the track 50 miles to get a sweeter spot for snow. The  fact the models are all this close on this run this far out is quite  interesting at this point.

*The Smaller details of it all...*

 The track is a good one and oh my if  this was a few weeks later or in January WOW.  The ocean is still mild  and it's late November not late December. The storm itself is going to  bring some travel problems starting Monday in Atlanta (Delta) and roll  north for Tuesday and Wednesday. If you are flying or have family and  friends flying this storm will cause delays we are certain of that. The  delays will be from heavy rain, wind, low visibility, fog, and potential  snow on Wednesday and even early Thursday.
New England may have some real problems  if the colder trend continues and a major snowstorm could be in the  works up there.  This is a big storm in size and precip. so all eyes are  on it as we approach the busiest travel day of the year. We'll have  more updates throughtout the day.  The NAM will give some insight to a  few things at about 9:30am


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## ScottySkis (Nov 22, 2013)

https://www.facebook.com/HVWX1?ref=stream
Storm Update with Images- 
 These are what my Mid Hudson Valley weather is saying about next week storm.
 So as you all know, we have been  eluding to a storm potential for about 3-4 days now, but we have not  went into very much detail till now. The reasons being that it was to  far in the long range, it occurs during a high impact travel/holiday  period and over the last few days we lacked what we call model  consistency. Long story short, no reason to cause hype about a storm  that was a week away that could have large implications on peoples plans  when there was very little consistency amongst the forecast models. 

 So what has changed? Well we are now 5 days away, we have three major  models all aligned with the fact that there will be a storm along the  coast around the same time, and at only 5 days away we have reached the  time frame that most people could use this type of early warning to  factor into their plans. In the 3 images attached we have the GFS Model  the European model and the Canadian Model they are showing accumulated  snowfall from the storm, notice the similarities? But there are also  some differences, the European model has the heaviest snowfall over our  region and the other two models have that band to our North. Reason why  its important to highlight those subtle differences is because it shows  that the exact track this system eventually takes can have a large  impact on the outcome. 
 Examples, a track very close to the coast will cause warm air to surge nland and up the Hudson River Valley  causing most of the precip to fall as rain that may end as snow as the  storm passes and colder air rushes in behind it, while a track further  offshore would lead to the cold air not being eroded and most of the  precip to fall as snow i.e. the European model. Or the storm could track  to far off shore and only graze the southern areas with some precip. We  will have some very cold air attempting to rush into the area around  the same time this storm is moving along the coast, the way these two  elements interact with each other can have a significant impact on the  outcome.
 So what are the facts? At this point it is increasingly  likely that a powerful storm will move up the coast between Tue Pm-Thur  AM. No matter what type of precip falls , it is still likely that heavy  rain and gusty winds along the coast will impact some of the major  airports. At 5 days away there are details that will continue to be  ironed out as we get closer, such as where does the rain/snow line  develop, what is the final track, how much cold air works into the  system and how strong does the system get. At this point we share this  information simply so it can become a part of your plans for next week.  Yes the models show significant snowfall for part of our region, NO  these models at 5 days out should not be taken verbatim, they are simply  used to look for trends at this point, 
 As always we will be  updating frequently over the next fews days and keeping you all aware of  any changes that occur, and please when sharing this information either  verbally of through social media be conscious that we are NOT  forecasting a major snowstorm for next week, we are highlight the fact  that there will likely be a storm, but its exact impacts are to be  determined as we get closer.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 22, 2013)




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## fbrissette (Nov 22, 2013)

Scotty said:


>



Now we're talking !


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## MadMadWorld (Nov 22, 2013)

Scotty said:


>



Those colors are a welcome return!

Sent from my SCH-I545 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## Abubob (Nov 22, 2013)

I gotta say - I don't really care for these odds.


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## from_the_NEK (Nov 22, 2013)

Pffffffttttt, not gonna happen. It's going to go right off the coast. :smash:


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## 4aprice (Nov 22, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> Pffffffttttt, not gonna happen. It's going to go right off the coast. :smash:



Not according to ECWMF.  Still on for interior northeast.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## ScottySkis (Nov 22, 2013)

4aprice said:


> Not according to ECWMF.  Still on for interior northeast.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Hoping so.


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## dlague (Nov 22, 2013)

Scotty said:


> Hoping so.



+1


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