# April 13-14th storm possibility



## loafer89 (Apr 7, 2008)

I am hearing about a possible coastal storm/cut of low for late this weekend. Perhaps Western Maine will get a good dump of snow.


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## mondeo (Apr 7, 2008)

No whammies no whammies no whammies...

I just put my summer tires on my car last weekend. It snows in VT, I'm stuck in CT.


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## loafer89 (Apr 7, 2008)

No doubt, the highlight of the week will be the formation of a major storm over the central U.S. on Thursday. This storm will be remembered for the widespread severe weather outbreak that we anticipate over the central and lower Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley region later Thursday and Thursday night. This storm could produce a lot of tornadoes. Steady rain ahead of this storm should spread into southwestern ontario Thursday night. As the storm moves up toward the Great Lakes Friday it will begin to stall out as a big blocking high over eastern Canada gets in the way. If this track holds, then we may see another moderate sized snow event in the region around Lake Superior once again Friday and into Friday night. Rain will eventually spread into the remainder of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec sometime Friday, *but as the blocking high to the north strengthens, it will force a pocket of colder air farther to the south, causing a cold air damming situation across far northern New England and southern Quebec by Friday night and that could mean we see the rain changing over to snow or sleet from near Ottawa to Montreal to Quebec City. Stay tuned for more on this tomorrow and Wednesday. *


*4. That same blocking high will also force the Great **Lakes** storm to transfer it's energy to a secondary storm near southern New England early Saturday. The eventual track and intensity of this second storm will be key in determining how much snow, if any, falls over southern Quebec, far northern New England*


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Apr 7, 2008)

Steezy..I'm not ready for spring..


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## The Sneak (Apr 8, 2008)

Reggae weekend weather outlook? I ain't goin if its gonna be pouring rain...


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## loafer89 (Apr 8, 2008)

The Sneak said:


> Reggae weekend weather outlook? I ain't goin if its gonna be pouring rain...


 

It's looking like a possible high elevation snow event is possible for the weekend.

Caribou, Maine NWS forecast discussion:

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY SATURDAY THEN RE-DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...COLDER
AIR WILL BE DRAW INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE COLDER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN
YESTERDAYS RUNS. WITH THIS IN MIND THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ALSO GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND MARGINAL
THICKNESSES FOR SNOW ALOFT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE
COULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WILL ASSUME THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

Gray, Maine:


A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE MIDWEST BY LATE FRIDAY THEN
LINGERS FOR THE BALANCE OF UPCOMING WEEKEND. A RAIN SNOW MIX IS
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER
AIR IS DRAWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE SYSTEM.
-- End Changed Discussion --


Burlington, Vermont:

A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN TRANSITION TOWARD COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A BROAD MID-UPR TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON FRIDAY AND THEN
VERY SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD TO THE EAST COAST BY 12Z MONDAY. THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN SLOWER IN THIS EVOLUTION AS COMPARED TO THE GFS...AND THE
00Z GFS IS TRENDING NOW TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF EVOLUTION. LEADING
REGION OF LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY AND RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM SW-NE. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A COOLING TREND /ESPECIALLY ALOFT/ AND
CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WARM PBL TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY MINIMIZE SNOW POTENTIAL IN
THE VALLEYS...BUT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DOESN/T REPRESENT A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.


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## thetrailboss (Apr 8, 2008)

WDEV was saying r^&n all weekend :angry:  It is only Tuesday....things could change.....


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## loafer89 (Apr 8, 2008)

Last years heavy snow event was forecast in advance with much the same types of precipitation as this one currently is. Sugarloaf had snow for four days in a row with 60" + of new snow during that time.

The rain/snow line was very close by with 0" of snow in Farmington and hardly any in Kingfield and massive flooding in Southern Maine.

My gut feeling is for 6-12" for Sugarloaf sunday-monday.


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## awf170 (Apr 9, 2008)

Ohhh I have a feeling this is going to be good.  My guess is Wildcat, Sugarloaf and Saddleback get dumped on while the rest of New England gets a bag of mixed slop.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Apr 9, 2008)

Snow Showers are in the forecast down here in PA for Monday..Saturday looks like a washout..


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## Greg (Apr 9, 2008)

awf170 said:


> Ohhh I have a feeling this is going to be good.  My guess is Wildcat, Sugarloaf and Saddleback get dumped on while the rest of New England gets a bag of mixed slop.



Mixed slop is good for base building... :razz:

Seriously, anything that preserves the base or doesn't contribute to losing it faster than necessary is fine by me. This includes cold rain.


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## snoseek (Apr 9, 2008)

awf170 said:


> Ohhh I have a feeling this is going to be good.  My guess is Wildcat, Sugarloaf and Saddleback get dumped on while the rest of New England gets a bag of mixed slop.



Those are the same three areas that got hammered big right around this time last year. I remember driving in the pouring rain to the cat only to see it turn to total nukage less than five miles from the mountain. The coast got demolished in Southern Maine on that storm.


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## loafer89 (Apr 9, 2008)

It's now looking like the heaviest precipitation (rain) will fall in Central and Southern New England with very little snowfall further north.


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## loafer89 (Apr 10, 2008)

The NWS just changed the forecast for the Sugarloaf area to a snow forecast which makes sense if the storm is trending southward and they stay on the northern edge of the storm. Right now it looks like a 3-5" snowfall for Regaee Weekend.

We are vacilating over weather to ski late this weekend, or wait for sunny weather next week. The only trouble is that while it may be sunny next week, it will be quite cold and the snowfields may never soften up.

Right now the early plan is to ski at Sunday River on sunday and at Sugarloaf monday-wednesday.


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## deadheadskier (Apr 10, 2008)

I've got Wildcat lined up for Sunday afternoon.  Last I checked, they are still 100% open.  Here's to hoping for a refresh on Saturday and a killer day Sunday.


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## Angus (Apr 10, 2008)

from http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather

As for cold air, maybe enough draining south for high elevation mountain snow in NH and ME, but that should be about it.  As for flooding, heaviest precip axis is south of the snowpack and with precip broken into two chunks, there will be time for runoff.  Some snowmelt may result in minor flooding for North Country, but I don't see a widespread event.

Sunday still looks the same as it did before, and Monday I'd mentioned in passing it could be cooler than Sunday - looking like a good bet with the northeast flow and cool Canadian air advecting south while lots of moisture gets locked in the lower levels for plenty of clouds and perhaps even a day of drizzle and light rain.


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## thebigo (Apr 10, 2008)

Ive been watching the NOAA forecast for the sugarloaf/saddleback region all week. Yesterday and today it shifted away from rain and more towards snow. 

NOAA forecast for sugarloaf


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## rocojerry (Apr 11, 2008)

If I were a betting man, Sugarloaf is the place to be.

I'm hoping the forecast brightens up for Jay though(anyone in?), it may start off wet and sloppy but hopefully changes over to snow for Monday+Tues.

36 hour map from weather.com


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## salsgang (Apr 11, 2008)

We are hitting Saddleback tomorrow. I like the colder trends! Fingers crossed!


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