# The Official 11/15 - 11/16 Storm Discussion Thread



## powderfreak (Nov 13, 2007)

Recent model data has changed to a decidedly more snow-friendly tune.  As is
often the case in the fall and early winter, when cold fronts reach the
coast they increase the baroclinicity thanks to a mild ocean and cool land
temperatures.  On Thursday morning, this temperature gradient and the
sharpening trough behind the cold front will spark a deepening low pressure
system off the coast of Southern New England...it will then track into the
Canadian Maritimes.  The GFS holds the low closer to the New England
coastline and, thus provides a heavier snowfall, especially in Maine and New
Hampshire.  

Low level temperatures are fairly mild and the low looks to deepen too late
too gather the necessary wind to transport surface cold air in before
precipitation shuts down.  However, the 0C isotherm does sneak in down to
roughly 2,000ft on both the NAM and GFS, during the middle of the
precipitation event (say noon Thursday).   

From the initial event, the heaviest snowfall will be from the SB/MRG area
northeastward with the White Mountains through western Maine picking up the
lion's share.  I could envision 4-8" at elevation from Sugarloaf to Loon by
Friday morning with 2-5" across the central/northern Green Mountains above
2,000ft.  Then, as the system moves northward and slams Fort Kent, ME, it
throws enough moisture southward to set off the orographic machines on
Friday.  Cold air will be in place so accumulating snow showers are likely
even in some of the towns near the Green Mountain spine and in north central
VT.  This looks like a 2-4" upslope event for the hills from SB northward by
Saturday morning...with 1-3" in northern NH/western ME.  

Total New Snow by Saturday morning should be mainly 4-8" in the
central/northern Greens and 5-9 with isolated higher amounts across northern
NH and western ME.  Remember this is mainly at some elevation and the
majority of population centers will remain below 3"...with larger valleys
(White River, CPV, etc) seeing little to no snow.

-Scott

ps: Still looks interesting early next week.


----------



## JimG. (Nov 13, 2007)

powderfreak said:


> Recent model data has changed to a decidedly more snow-friendly tune.  As is
> often the case in the fall and early winter, when cold fronts reach the
> coast they increase the baroclinicity thanks to a mild ocean and cool land
> temperatures.  On Thursday morning, this temperature gradient and the
> ...



Thanks Scott.

The season is off to a rousing start.


----------



## riverc0il (Nov 13, 2007)

Love it. Cannon always seems to get nailed at least once before they open and this looks like the one. I know where I'll be Saturday morning.


----------



## Zand (Nov 13, 2007)

Looks like Maine should make out pretty well with this one. Bombs out too late to do mch for the rest of New England, but don't count out some flakes on the backside of this Friday morning. Looks like Sunday River and Sugarloaf will be the places to be this weekend.


----------



## awf170 (Nov 13, 2007)

riverc0il said:


> Love it. Cannon always seems to get nailed at least once before they open and this looks like the one. I know where I'll be Saturday morning.



My guess is Wildcat for a storm like this.  Though Cannon could pick up a decent amount initially then some more from the upslope, giving them the most overall.  I hope Cannon wins out though since it is shortest drive for me.  

I want some more early season taft goodness...


----------



## riverc0il (Nov 14, 2007)

I ain't saying Cannon gets the jackpot, just saying that is where I'll be.


----------



## Mildcat (Nov 14, 2007)

PSYYYYYYYYYCH!!! I'll be at the Loaf this weekend.


----------



## loafer89 (Nov 14, 2007)

NOAA talk's about a retrograding storm for Maine early next week. We like retrograding storms, just like the one late last April.

Let the sucker do a dance in the Gulf Of Maine all next week:grin:


----------



## kingslug (Nov 14, 2007)

*Now yer talkin*

A cold front on Thursday will push through the East, replacing the unseasonably warm air with gusty winds, rain and lake-effect snow to the lee of the Great Lakes. By Friday, snow showers will spread from the Great Lakes into the Northeast interior and a powerful snow storm will slam northern Maine. 

 The Midwest Regional News story reports the arctic air following the cold front tonight will trigger lake-effect snow to the lee of the upper Great Lakes as well as localized snow squalls in northern Michigan. 

By Thursday, the cold front will move into the East, with lake-effect snow developing in the snow belt areas around the lower Great Lakes. 

Powerful winds today have blasted across the Plains states and Upper Midwest. The Severe Weather Center lists the widespread wind advisories in effect from the Canadian border to North Texas. 

Peak wind gusts reported in the 24 hours ending at 11 a.m. CST include: 
Related News
Video: Latest Weather Update  
Vlog: Meteo Madness - Wild Weather Pattern  
Vlog: Frank Strait - Cold Air Dipping South  
Blog: Jesse Ferrell - Lake-Effect Snow, Round 2 
**UPDATE:** AccuWeather.com Winter Forecast 
Laramie, Wyo.: 62 mph 
Rapid City, S.D.: 61 mph 
Minot, N.D.: 60 mph 
Buffalo, S.D.: 56 mph 
According to the East Regional News story, a increasingly potent storm along the cold front on Thursday will spread rain along the Eastern Seaboard from Virginia to Maine.  The heaviest rain will fall along the Interstate 95 corridor north of Chesapeake Bay. 

The cold air following the front will turn the rain to snow along the Appalachian spine. Snow accumulations from northern Pennsylvania to the Adirondacks could average one to two inches; however, some areas could receive higher amounts. 

The Winter Weather Center reports on Friday, the storm on Friday will spark a significant snow storm in northern Maine. More than 6 inches of snow will fall across eastern Quebec, while upstate New York and northern New England will receive lesser amounts. To the east of the storm center, a cold rain and winds gusting to 60 mph will lash New England and Atlantic Canada. 

Severe Weather Expert Henry Margusity analyzes the storm activity in New England through the weekend. 

The cold front will push out the unseasonably warm air across the eastern third of the nation. On Tuesday, at least 38 daily temperatures records were broken or tied. By Friday, temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees colder. The South Regional News story reports the colder air will reach well into the Deep South and the southern Plains. 

City Avg. Thurs. Fri. Sat. Sun.  City Avg. Thurs. Fri. Sat. Sun. 
Denver 52 56 65 62 63  Chicago 48 44 46 50 44 
Dallas 65 66 73 74 74  St. Louis 54 54 63 60 59 
Pittsburgh 51 42 38 41 46  Washington, D.C. 58 56 49 50 50 
Philadelphia 55 55 48 46 48  New York City 54 56 48 46 48 
Boston 52 59 48 46 46  Memphis 63 58 63 68 67 
Raleigh 63 60 53 58 60  Atlanta 64 56 58 62 65 


NICE!


----------



## powderfreak (Nov 14, 2007)

Winter Storm Watch....the amounts generally fit what I posted last night.  I'll stay with my 4-8" in northern VT and 5-9" across northern NH and ME.  I'm on the fence with increasing my VT amounts as I feel the Spine resorts (SB, MRG, Stowe, Bolton, Smuggs, and Jay) will make out pretty good from this.  Recent guidance suggests more upslope snow, especially Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs, and Jay than I have forecasted.  Amounts might be realized near a foot in those areas.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
354 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007

...POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL
RESULT IN A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN AT LOW-LEVELS...DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN
TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR FIRST
IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACK REGION AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.


VTZ003-004-006-007-016>019-150500-
/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0009.071115T2300Z-071116T2300Z/
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...
STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...
BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON
354 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY THROUGH 6
PM FRIDAY.

RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY. THE
CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR FIRST AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND
GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER NORTHERN VERMONT AND
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN TAPER OFF TO OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON HOW QUICKLY COLD
AIR CAN MOVE INTO VERMONT WHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR 5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA...WITH
ISOLATED 10 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION.


----------



## nelsapbm (Nov 14, 2007)

Tom Messner (WPTZ Burlington/Plattsburg) is predicting 5-9" for the spine of the Greens and the NEK. Trace to 2" in the valleys. We'll see what Sharon has to say on 'CAX in about 45 minutes


----------



## loafer89 (Nov 14, 2007)

I just read that some models have dropped the idea of a storm for Thanksgiving:flame:

The 1-2" of rain forecast for Sugarloaf tomorrow is going to hurt the limited snowcover.


----------



## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Nov 14, 2007)

Awesome..Stowe and northern Vermont could start getting a base..


----------



## ski_resort_observer (Nov 14, 2007)

Sharon says it going to snow!!!!  Here is yet another forecast, this one at the 3000' elevation of Sugarbush.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...blat=43.705417&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=125&map.y=95


----------



## adamti91 (Nov 14, 2007)

From WTEN Albany.


----------



## bobbutts (Nov 14, 2007)

some images


----------



## powderfreak (Nov 14, 2007)

The upcoming storm system is a tough call.  I'd expect lower snowfall totals in NH and ME based on latest westward trend, with higher totals in northern NY and northern VT.  The system is progged to deepen quicker than anticipated yesterday, throwing more moisture back into the cold conveyor belt.  The Adirondacks will see 4-6"...the Northern Green Mountains see 7-10", w/ isolated 12" amounts along the spine.  

What we'll see tomorrow is a rain changing to snow from WNW to ESE, and from the top down...happening mostly during the afternoon or evening for most areas.  The snow level will stop however, at 1,500ft for some time...and so the lowest elevations, such as the Champlain Valley, might not see much snow (2" or less) with an after 12am Friday changeover time.  With no strong low level cold air push until the low is well off to the northeast, we'll have to use dynamic cooling from the melting of snowflakes aloft, to bring the snow level that last thousand or so feet to the surface.  If the snow level doesn't lower to the CPV by midnight, a strong area of 500mb vorticity will help mix it to the surface. 

The only ways we could end up with more snow in the valleys (and mountains) are: 
1) Heavy banded precipitation is occurring over the region pushing that snow level lower several hours ahead of schedule in areas seeing any meso-scale bands.  
2) The low pressure system will track in a fashion that is favorable to Champlain Valley convergence on the backside, and adjacent heavy upslope snow.  Late tomorrow night, NNW winds should funnel moisture into the upper CPV and western slopes while riding the cold air south...enhancing and/or prolonging backside snowfall. 

Whatever happens, it should be a fun early season system with a little more widespread snowfall than the last mountain episode.

-Scott


----------



## Marc (Nov 15, 2007)

Thanks for the insight Scott.  I am looking forward to this weekend.


----------



## kingslug (Nov 15, 2007)

I'll just have tp wait for Bird Day weekend. Inaccuweather and others are predicting a cold beginning to winter but then a warmup, like last year. Hope they are wrong but this time I'm going to get in as many early turns as I can.


----------



## Greg (Nov 15, 2007)

I know the Intellicast radar coloring is not always representative of the actual precip (it's been snowing in the north country most of the day),but check out the blue blob over the ADKs that's been there most of today:


----------



## ajl50 (Nov 15, 2007)

The Webcams from LP have just looked awesome all day- they really show the blue blob's effect
From the looks of the cams during the day the snow level was about 1500 feet.


----------



## JD (Nov 15, 2007)

Looking like kind of a bust at Stowe.


----------



## JD (Nov 16, 2007)

No snow in town as of this AM.   Heading to J.


----------



## bobbutts (Nov 16, 2007)

Some reports from resorts conditions pages:

Mt Snow- Flurries
Okemo- dusting - 2"
Killington - 2"
Sugarbush - Up to 8"
Jay - 7" last 48 hours
Sunday River - 1-2"


----------



## loafer89 (Nov 16, 2007)

3-4" of new snow at sugarloaf since the rain turned to snow around 3:30am and the NWS forecasts up to an additional 10" by this evening.


----------



## Vortex (Nov 16, 2007)

Does not look real productve at the river.

http://wwc.instacam.com/showcam.asp?id=NWRYS&size=S


----------



## JD (Nov 16, 2007)

1-2 feet fresh and dumping at J at 1:30.  Wind.


----------



## bvibert (Nov 16, 2007)

Nothing like up north, but my wife said there was a little bit of snow in Torrington, CT a little bit ago...


----------



## Greg (Nov 16, 2007)

bvibert said:


> Nothing like up north, but my wife said there was a little bit of snow in Torrington, CT a little bit ago...



Yup. Off and on snow squalls here too. Kind of weird little ice balls mixed in. Sure nice to see!


----------



## bvibert (Nov 16, 2007)

Greg said:


> Yup. Off and on snow squalls here too. Kind of weird little ice balls mixed in. Sure nice to see!



I'm stuck in a cubicle in the middle of a factory, but someone did come in to tell me it was snowing after the fact...  I've yet to see more than one or two tiny ice balls fall from the sky so far this season...


----------



## KingM (Nov 16, 2007)

SB is reporting 10" at top. Here is their email about tomorrow's opening:

Friday, November 16th
Tomorrow we open for a “sneak preview” at Lincoln Peak, and it’s snowing! Snowmakers are saying 10” so far up top and there’s a couple more in the forecast – it looks like we’re lining up for some superb skiing and riding for our little “sneak preview weekend,” honoring Stein Eriksen and the New England Ski Museum meeting in the Gate House Lodge on Saturday.

That’s right – we will be open this weekend at Lincoln Peak – pending lift approval today from the state. The official opening of the 07-08 season is still slated for Thanksgiving Day, but it’s too white up here not to have skiing and riding this weekend. For Mt. Ellen pass holders – don’t worry; your passes will be good at Lincoln Peak until Mt. Ellen opens for the season.

Snowmaking: We’ve been making snow since October 29th on Jester & Organgrinder! Base is 12-36" of homemade + natural! Snowmaking is underway on Organgrinder.

Terrain: Upper Jester, Downspout and Organgrinder with 'grinder being ungroomed.

Lifts: Super Bravo and Heaven’s Gate chair from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. on both Saturday and Sunday. Downloading on the Super Bravo.

Ticket Princing (this weekend only): $40 for all adults, $36 for SugarCard holders and $30 for juniors ages 7-18. Kids 6 and under always ski & ride for free at the Bush.

Parks: Rails on Organgrinder flats.

Please note: After this Sunday, the lifts will not spin again until the official start of the winter season: Thursday, November 22nd.


----------



## JD (Nov 16, 2007)

Today we did 2 laps at J, 1-2 feet skiable snow and wind.  Great turns.  Then home and up to stowe for a speed lap of Chin Clip.(1 hour from the car back tot he car) Half as much snow as J at the bottom, up top it was hard to tell with the wind load and such.  Chin clip skiied great op to bottom.  How much snow?  enough.  I think the call would be J tomorrow for the deepest pow.


----------



## riverc0il (Nov 16, 2007)

JD is the boy who cried wolf right now. JD always tells people how much more snow Jay has than Stowe. I don't believe him this time


----------



## JD (Nov 16, 2007)

Nice try RC.  I never tell anyone the truth about Stowe.  When J get's belted, I'm happy to share.


----------

