# Accuweather Winter forecast update....



## millerm277 (Dec 1, 2011)

Not an improvement, now forecasting "not as cold"

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathercom-20112012-winter-1/58451


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## 4aprice (Dec 1, 2011)

millerm277 said:


> Not an improvement, now forecasting "not as cold"
> 
> http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathercom-20112012-winter-1/58451



FWIW They still say above normal snowfall for the interior northeast and Northern New England.  I assume the forecast is for DJF.  Not much on the horizon for the next 2 weeks and another forecasted warm up for later December means if its gonna get there it will have to do it in a big way in Jan and Feb.  Shades of 2006-2007.  Interestingly enough I was reading a old ski book (circa 68-69) and it had a quote that basically said, about every 5 years the northeast suffers a sub par season.  December 2006 was just like it is now - exactly 5 years ago.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 1, 2011)

I couldnt care less.  

The fact is that man is not advanced enough to predict the weather with any certainty.

How'd their "Winter Predictions" pan out for them last year?   Yeah; exactly.


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## snoseek (Dec 1, 2011)

usually I pay no attention to these forecast but seeing as it is in fact December 1st then I would definately tend to put slightly more faith in it than the ones that come out in August or September. It could be completely wrong but I hope the forecast for my winter dwelling is close to what they are saying. Sunday River will have more and better skiing than Kirkwood this weekend. I probably shouldn't be concerned but am slowly growing impatient.


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## Morwax (Dec 1, 2011)

BenedictGomez said:


> I couldnt care less.
> 
> The fact is that man is not advanced enough to predict the weather with any certainty.
> 
> How'd their "Winter Predictions" pan out for them last year?   Yeah; exactly.



+1


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## jaja111 (Dec 2, 2011)

Accuweather is a joke to sell ads. My take on their "winter outlooks" is analogous to:

I am going to roll a pair of dice 100 times and predict a fairly even distribution of rolls between 2 and 12.

Then I roll 25 times and happen to get a lot of 8's.

Then I revise my "forecast" expecting a lot of 8's for the next 75 rolls. 

It shouldn't be accuweather as much as it should be alchemyweather, or astroloweather, or vegasloserweather, or............


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## 4aprice (Dec 2, 2011)

BenedictGomez said:


> I couldnt care less.
> 
> The fact is that man is not advanced enough to predict the weather with any certainty.
> 
> How'd their "Winter Predictions" pan out for them last year?   Yeah; exactly.



I went back to the thread that had the accuweather forecast put out last pre-season and it was actually pretty good.  It showed the great snows in the west and storm pattern in the east that gave us that good season here.  Joe Bastardi was the chief forecaster and he is no longer there.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## legalskier (Dec 2, 2011)

4aprice said:


> I went back to the thread that had the accuweather forecast put out last pre-season and it was actually pretty good.... Joe Bastardi was the chief forecaster and he is no longer there.



His predictions for the last two seasons have been accurate as I recall. Now that Joe is gone, one wonders whether that will continue.


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