# Tuckerman weather question



## kcyanks1 (Apr 30, 2008)

The TFT page gives a link to a weather forecast for Jackson, NH.  How much should I adjust the temps downwards to get a decent estimate for temps at Tucks?  Just trying to figure out how I should pack/intend to dress on Sunday.  I'm only taking a small day pack, so I can't fit many extra layers in there.  I was thinking a thin baselayer and then either a shell as a jacket or a jacket-like thing made out of the base-layer material, and skipping the normal jacket.  For pants I was just going to wear nylon excercise pants.


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## riverc0il (Apr 30, 2008)

Just look up Tuckerman Ravine, NH on NOAA for a point forecast. Mount Washington Obs has an autoroad temperature profile on their web page that is helpful. If you are unsure on how to pack, always better to have too much than too little. For 40-60, I usually have a long sleeve base layer, fleece, and wind breaker and ski pants for the bottoms though sometimes I wear shorts on the skin/hike up if it is warm enough. Parka/Jacket probably not needed if you have an appropriate three layer system from my experience but everyone has different layering needs.


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## David Metsky (Apr 30, 2008)

Keep in mind that if you get hurt you'll be hanging around there for a long time.  A little extra clothing can be a nice safety measure, plus a couple of liters of water, etc.


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## kcyanks1 (Apr 30, 2008)

Thanks for the tips.  I was probably going to dress a little light, it seems.  Can you refill water at Hojos or anywhere along the way?  For the forecast, should I go to http://www.nws.noaa.gov/? That doesn't seem to be working when I look up "Tuckerman Ravine".


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## andyzee (Apr 30, 2008)

kcyanks1 said:


> Thanks for the tips. I was probably going to dress a little light, it seems. Can you refill water at Hojos or anywhere along the way? For the forecast, should I go to http://www.nws.noaa.gov/? That doesn't seem to be working when I look up "Tuckerman Ravine".


 
Yeah, they have water about 100yds from hojos


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## David Metsky (May 1, 2008)

Yes, there's a pump at HoJos.

I use http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/ for weather forecasts.  It's the most appropriate for Tuckerman.


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## kcyanks1 (May 1, 2008)

David Metsky said:


> Yes, there's a pump at HoJos.
> 
> I use http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/ for weather forecasts.  It's the most appropriate for Tuckerman.



Thanks!  I figure plan for something somewhere between the valley and summit forecasts, maybe closer to the latter? Looks like it'll be cool then.. Seems like valley vs. summit is a 20 degree difference on the high end, much bigger than I would've imagined.


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## andyzee (May 1, 2008)

kcyanks1 said:


> Thanks! I figure plan for something somewhere between the valley and summit forecasts, maybe closer to the latter? Looks like it'll be cool then.. Seems like valley vs. summit is a 20 degree difference on the high end, much bigger than I would've imagined.


 
Note: there's no rule of thumb for this, sometimes it's colder, sometime it could be almost the same, other times it's inverted and could actually be warmer on top. You should be prepared for anything. I've been there three time and on two of those occasions I had to strip off layers.


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## kcyanks1 (May 1, 2008)

Thanks.  Is there any concern about hiking up the bowl in just ski boots (w/o any attachments)?  I figure obviously I'll just use normal boots for the hike up to the base of the ravine.


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## David Metsky (May 1, 2008)

You mean without crampons?  At this time of year I don't think they're needed, but other people won't go up without them.  If you have regular alpine boots I'm not sure most crampons will fit.  Other traction devices (like Stabilizers and MicroSpikes) are not really appropriate for the Ravine.


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## kcyanks1 (May 1, 2008)

David Metsky said:


> You mean without crampons?  At this time of year I don't think they're needed, but other people won't go up without them.  If you have regular alpine boots I'm not sure most crampons will fit.  Other traction devices (like Stabilizers and MicroSpikes) are not really appropriate for the Ravine.



Thanks.  I figured crampons wouldn't be necessary at this time of year (and was hoping that someone would say that).  I didn't realize though that you couldn't use them with normal alpine boots (which is what I have).  At the time I posted I wasn't totally sure about the device, as someone I'm going with (also his first time there, at least in the winter/for skiing) mentioned something that he said was not crampons.  He since sent a link and it was MicroSpikes.  You'd say those are not helpful for the ravine itself or the trail leading up to it?


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## David Metsky (May 1, 2008)

kcyanks1 said:


> You'd say those are not helpful for the ravine itself or the trail leading up to it?


They could be somewhat helpful on the way up to the Ravine but they are better on softer boots in mid-winter conditions.  With all the slush and corn on the trails they don't have enough bite.  And they're best for relatively flat terrain, so climbing with them isn't helpful.


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## kcyanks1 (May 1, 2008)

David Metsky said:


> They could be somewhat helpful on the way up to the Ravine but they are better on softer boots in mid-winter conditions.  With all the slush and corn on the trails they don't have enough bite.  And they're best for relatively flat terrain, so climbing with them isn't helpful.



Thanks.  I won't bother making any last minute purchases then.


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## andyzee (May 1, 2008)

No need for crampons, plenty of boot pack. One thing I found useful was an ice ax, but no real need for that either.


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## kcyanks1 (May 1, 2008)

andyzee said:


> No need for crampons, plenty of boot pack. One thing I found useful was an ice ax, but no real need for that either.



Are my feet going to come back looking like yours?


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## andyzee (May 1, 2008)

kcyanks1 said:


> Are my feet going to come back looking like yours?


 
Only if you buy new boots that are a bit big. :lol: 

Wiseguys, a dime a dozen! 

Oh, forget everyones advise about warm clothes, you'll do fine with tshirt and shorts, I mean, it's May!


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## kcyanks1 (May 1, 2008)

andyzee said:


> Only if you buy new boots that are a bit big. :lol:
> 
> Wiseguys, a dime a dozen!
> 
> Oh, forget everyones advise about warm clothes, you'll do fine with tshirt and shorts, I mean, it's May!



I didn't make you put your feet up as your avitar  T-shirt and shorts it is!


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## andyzee (May 1, 2008)

kcyanks1 said:


> I didn't make you put your feet up as your avitar  T-shirt and shorts it is!


 
:lol: Those ain't my feet


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## riverc0il (May 1, 2008)

andyzee said:


> No need for crampons, plenty of boot pack.


Not after 7" of snow and wind loading. But I suspect there may already be the begins of folks rekicking in steps before the weekend. The boot ladders most certainly will not be as clear cut and well set this weekend as last. Still, cramps will likely not be required though some folks prefer them. As per the previous thread, if you decide on cramps, and ice ax is also required and you should practice with them before going into terrain that a fall could hurt you more with cramps than without them if you fail to arrest correctly. My opinion is climb a less steep gully in ski boots only and you'll be fine.


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## kcyanks1 (May 1, 2008)

riverc0il said:


> Not after 7" of snow and wind loading. But I suspect there may already be the begins of folks rekicking in steps before the weekend. The boot ladders most certainly will not be as clear cut and well set this weekend as last. Still, cramps will likely not be required though some folks prefer them. As per the previous thread, if you decide on cramps, and ice ax is also required and you should practice with them before going into terrain that a fall could hurt you more with cramps than without them if you fail to arrest correctly. My opinion is climb a less steep gully in ski boots only and you'll be fine.



Thanks for the tips.  My plan was to do Left Gully unless advised otherwise, with Hillman's possibly as a backup.


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## andyzee (May 1, 2008)

kcyanks1 said:


> Thanks for the tips. My plan was to do Left Gully unless advised otherwise, with Hillman's possibly as a backup.


 

When you going?


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## kcyanks1 (May 1, 2008)

andyzee said:


> When you going?



Sunday, May 4


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## kcyanks1 (May 3, 2008)

*Forecast changed to being awful; might have to abandon plans :-(*

Was so looking forward to my first adventure in Tucks, but don't think that this is the weather I should be doing it in ... and driving 7 hours each way to get to.  2 others have to make the decision along with me, but as much as I really want to go, my gut is that I shouldn't.  


http://www.tuckerman.org/avalanche/

Over the past 2 days the weekend forecast has moved from partly sunny to a washout. The forecast has even changed from 9pm last night as the precipitation shield is way ahead of schedule as liquid reached the ground here on Mount Washington at 5am this morning. Drizzle is currently falling at Hermit Lake under overcast skies. Unfortunately it's all downhill from here as this moisture laden system enters the region and intensifies tomorrow. *QPF (predicted water amounts) have ramped up in the past 12 hours to 1.4" for the entire event with 0.8" falling tomorrow which currently holds a 90% probability of rain. Not only will this make it unpleasant to be relaxing on your favorite Ravine rock eating a soggy wonderbread sandwich, but will dramatically exacerbate our spring hazards. Crevasses and undermining will become more problematic; however, icefall will once again be the main hazardous threat in the Ravine over the next few days. Two icefall concerns exist today; the long standing large ice that developed through the winter; and the ice that quickly developed during the cold snap this week. This new ice will likely all peel off today and overnight with the ramp up of warm rain. The older larger ice, such as the upper Sluice ice, is sitting unsupported by any ice foundation below it. This is sitting up above Lunch Rocks threatening anything in its path. In addition to this threat fog over the next couple of days will dramatically increase the icefall hazard. Even if you can hear a massive block of ice cleave off you won't be able to see it coming, potentially breaking apart into multiple TVs, loungers, and refrigerator sized pieces in all directions. Fog can often develop rapidly and if this catches you when you're already up in a hazardous location it won't help your situation.* Navigation around Mt. Washington will be difficult if fog overtakes the landscape and realize that all "summer trails" are still deeply buried and go through some very hazardous terrain. This scenario occurred yesterday as a school group of 60 planned on hiking up the Tuckerman Ravine trail to the summit. We caught them and explained that trails don't exist at this time of the year; it is full on mountaineering terrain. Play it conservative if on the mountain today and anticipate loosing all visibility from time to time.


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## andyzee (May 3, 2008)

Well, like 90% of the wannabees out there say, there's always next year :lol:


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (May 3, 2008)

kcyanks1 said:


> Was so looking forward to my first adventure in Tucks, but don't think that this is the weather I should be doing it in ... and driving 7 hours each way to get to.  2 others have to make the decision along with me, but as much as I really want to go, my gut is that I shouldn't.
> 
> 
> http://www.tuckerman.org/avalanche/
> ...



That doesn't sound too bad..


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## kcyanks1 (May 3, 2008)

andyzee said:


> Well, like 90% of the wannabees out there say, there's always next year :lol:



Ha, I deserve that, I guess   What would you do, seriously?  If we drive up there later today as planned and it is bad weather, there's also the option of Sugarbush or even Sugarloaf ... it still will be raining, but perhaps in that weather I'd rather be at a resort than out in the backcountry, especially given that I am not familiar with Tucks.  And then if we luck out with the weather, we can still do Tucks.  But it's a ton of driving and effort for a maybe (coming from NYC).


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## JimG. (May 3, 2008)

kcyanks1 said:


> Was so looking forward to my first adventure in Tucks, but don't think that this is the weather I should be doing it in ... and driving 7 hours each way to get to.  2 others have to make the decision along with me, but as much as I really want to go, my gut is that I shouldn't.
> 
> 
> http://www.tuckerman.org/avalanche/
> ...



I believe you made a good call.

There is always next weekend.


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## kcyanks1 (May 3, 2008)

JimG. said:


> I believe you made a good call.
> 
> There is always next weekend.



Well, call isn't made just yet...I didn't want to call anyone else yet in case they were asleep.  I emailed and said to call me, but I'll call soon.  Next weekend is no good because I have family plans for mother's day.  The following weekend should be OK for me, but a friend I was supposed to go with will be away and my brother who is coming has an extremely unpredictable work schedule (not that mine is very predictable, but his is worse in that respect).  So I can definitely shoot for 2 weekends from now, but this one was perfect as far as people being able to go, and despite early nervousness about possible showers, until this morning, it looked like I'd luck out with the weather...not beautiful, but dry.


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## JimG. (May 3, 2008)

kcyanks1 said:


> Well, call isn't made just yet...I didn't want to call anyone else yet in case they were asleep.  I emailed and said to call me, but I'll call soon.  Next weekend is no good because I have family plans for mother's day.  The following weekend should be OK for me, but a friend I was supposed to go with will be away and my brother who is coming has an extremely unpredictable work schedule (not that mine is very predictable, but his is worse in that respect).  So I can definitely shoot for 2 weekends from now, but this one was perfect as far as people being able to go, and despite early nervousness about possible showers, until this morning, it looked like I'd luck out with the weather...not beautiful, but dry.



Good weather conditions make the first trip there much more enjoyable.

My first trip in 20 years or so was in 2002 and we stayed 2 nights in the lean-to's. 

The day we hiked in we did a Hillman's that afternoon in 60 degree weather.

By the time we finished dinner there was 4" of new snow on the ground. We got about 10" overnight total.

The next day on Hillman's was a blowing snow fest. Sunny and cold.

The big payoff was the last day, windless and sunny with superb wind packed powder. Chute was especially nice, as was Center Gully.

I won't make it up there this season...the first time in at least 5 years. Just too busy with the new job, but feeling settled in now. So it's next season for me.

Enjoy.


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## riverc0il (May 3, 2008)

I bagged out on going today. Was looking at either Hillman's or GoS, icefall threat is much less on Hillman's and not really an issue at all in GoS along with no bumps over there either. Weather was not looking good as of last night and when I woke up the ground was wet from rain last night. Sunday is going to be a wash as well so probably a good idea to wait for a better week. Skiing was certainly doable today but I don't like getting soggy and prefer to save the slog for nicer days.


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## andyzee (May 3, 2008)

kcyanks1 said:


> Ha, I deserve that, I guess  What would you do, seriously? If we drive up there later today as planned and it is bad weather, there's also the option of Sugarbush or even Sugarloaf ... it still will be raining, but perhaps in that weather I'd rather be at a resort than out in the backcountry, especially given that I am not familiar with Tucks. And then if we luck out with the weather, we can still do Tucks. But it's a ton of driving and effort for a maybe (coming from NYC).


 
I never make plans according to weather forcasts, 50% chance they're wrong. For me it's a 7-8 hour drive up there and I would just going according to plan. Have alternate plans in the event the forcasts are right. Worst case, it's still a weekend away from home, you're still checking out new areas. Guess it all depends how adventerous you are.


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## kcyanks1 (May 3, 2008)

andyzee said:


> I never make plans according to weather forcasts, 50% chance they're wrong. For me it's a 7-8 hour drive up there and I would just going according to plan. Have alternate plans in the event the forcasts are right. Worst case, it's still a weekend away from home, you're still checking out new areas. Guess it all depends how adventerous you are.



Part of me thinks like that and feels like I should go...I'd kill myself if it ended up being nice and we didn't go.  That said, rental car + gas + hotel (+ time) is a lot of expense/effort for what seems like a not-to-promising outcome.  If it were a forecast of a chance of showers, that's one thing.  But a lot of rain and fog affecting visibility, when I have never been there, is another.  My friend immediately said we should put it off before I even gave my view.. Still trying to reach my brother.  Totally sucks since I wasn't planning on my season being over.  

What are the skiing options normally like in mid May, assuming I shoot for going 2 weekends from now?


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (May 3, 2008)

kcyanks1 said:


> Part of me thinks like that and feels like I should go...I'd kill myself if it ended up being nice and we didn't go.  That said, rental car + gas + hotel (+ time) is a lot of expense/effort for what seems like a not-to-promising outcome.  If it were a forecast of a chance of showers, that's one thing.  But a lot of rain and fog affecting visibility, when I have never been there, is another.  My friend immediately said we should put it off before I even gave my view.. Still trying to reach my brother.  Totally sucks since I wasn't planning on my season being over.
> 
> What are the skiing options normally like in mid May, assuming I shoot for going 2 weekends from now?



You live in NYC..why don't you fly to Utah for a weekend and ski Snowbird.


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## andyzee (May 3, 2008)

kcyanks1 said:


> Part of me thinks like that and feels like I should go...I'd kill myself if it ended up being nice and we didn't go. That said, rental car + gas + hotel (+ time) is a lot of expense/effort for what seems like a not-to-promising outcome. If it were a forecast of a chance of showers, that's one thing. But a lot of rain and fog affecting visibility, when I have never been there, is another. My friend immediately said we should put it off before I even gave my view.. Still trying to reach my brother. Totally sucks since I wasn't planning on my season being over.
> 
> What are the skiing options normally like in mid May, assuming I shoot for going 2 weekends from now?


 

Car rental and stuff, is a cost, can't blame you. Of course, past performance is no indication of future perfomance. But below you have a couple vids from May 26 and May 27 of last year on Mt. Washington. And that is something to take into consideration, there is more to Mt. Washington then just Tux. Also, I believe it to be worthwhile just for the hike and get familiar with the mountain.

Tuckerman Ravine 5/27:


Great Gulf 5/26:


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## kcyanks1 (May 3, 2008)

So we are canceling the Tucks trip, still considering a direct trip to Sugarbush rather than one via New Hampshire.  They haven't made the call yet about being open tomorrow, but will do so mid-afternoon, so we'll procrastinate a little longer on a total cancellation.  Probably not happening though.

GSS: Flying out to Utah actually isn't so crazy an idea, though probably would require me to take a day or two off from work (would want at least 2 full days of skiing if I'm going on a plane I think, and then need time to travel) which I wasn't planning on doing now.


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## eatskisleep (May 3, 2008)

riverc0il said:


> I bagged out on going today. Was looking at either Hillman's or GoS, icefall threat is much less on Hillman's and not really an issue at all in GoS along with no bumps over there either. Weather was not looking good as of last night and when I woke up the ground was wet from rain last night. Sunday is going to be a wash as well so probably a good idea to wait for a better week. Skiing was certainly doable today but I don't like getting soggy and prefer to save the slog for nicer days.




Yep rained pretty much all day today, some sleet/freezing rain near the top of Hillman's. Still a great experience overall though; despite being soaked. Wow, backcountry skiing is so much fun. Seriously.  :-D


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## ckofer (May 4, 2008)

Sunday's summit weather:

_Low pressure will remain over the region today, continuing the rain and fog on the summits, with the heaviest rain coming before noon. Although most moisture should fall prior to evening, with temperatures fall near or below freezing, there is a chance of rain or snow showers tonight. High pressure will build in from the SW Monday, clearing the summits and increasing the temperatures. Lower level moisture may allow for partial undercast conditions early.

_Probably the best thing to do today is stay in and stream youtube vids of jam bands.


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## awf170 (May 4, 2008)

ckofer said:


> Probably the best thing to do today is stay in and stream youtube vids of jam bands.



No thanks.  I think I'll stick to laying on the summit in t-shirt while I let freezing rain and sleet start to accumulate on my bare skin.

Or listen to some quality music...


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## cbcbd (May 4, 2008)

Yeah, for first time out there I'd can on being there today. Yesterday was pretty interesting up there and I can imagine today would only be worse.

Hillman's, Left gully, and Chute should hold some snow for a while. Hope you like skiing moguls on 35+ degree terrain


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## kcyanks1 (May 4, 2008)

cbcbd said:


> Yeah, for first time out there I'd can on being there today. Yesterday was pretty interesting up there and I can imagine today would only be worse.
> 
> Hillman's, Left gully, and Chute should hold some snow for a while. Hope you like skiing moguls on 35+ degree terrain



So, I went to Sugarbush with my brother and we skied half a day there.  had some fun, worth all the effort.  Doubt I'll make Tux this year, but at least I got day #20 in some place.  And yes, 35+ degree mogul terrain is fun   Did you go Saturday?


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (May 5, 2008)

kcyanks1 said:


> So, I went to Sugarbush with my brother and we skied half a day there.  had some fun, worth all the effort.  Doubt I'll make Tux this year, but at least I got day #20 in some place.  And yes, 35+ degree mogul terrain is fun   Did you go Saturday?





Is Steins 35+ degrees???  Props on 10 hours of driving for a half day of skiing..


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## kcyanks1 (May 5, 2008)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> Is Steins 35+ degrees???  Props on 10 hours of driving for a half day of skiing..



10? try to 12   Way up was like 5:40 from my brother's apartment and way back like 6.  From me to him was a nice 15 minutes, from him to me was a nightmare--ran into the remnants of a street fair leading to road closures or something.  We did stay overnight at KingM's place, though, so it wasn't all in a day.  

The reference to 35+ degrees was about Tux, I might've been unclear the way I grouped it all together.  Just guessing, the headwall of Steins maybe is low 30s.  But I don't really know.


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