# Storm speculation Dec 6-7



## troy (Dec 3, 2011)

What are the AZ meteo guru's sayin ?


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 3, 2011)

At this point, lets not speculate! Lets just pray for colder weather! More Sacrifice's to ULLR!


----------



## WinnChill (Dec 3, 2011)

troy said:


> What are the AZ meteo guru's sayin ?



I'm not too jazzed up about it right now--probably delayed into Wed.  And the track--as vague as it is right now--just doesn't seem good with the trend of things being pulled inland too much--the main trough of low pressure.  Could be more of a r*&# maker with snow further into VT/NY.  A couple of the indices we watch (AO and NAO...I think NEK alluded to these earlier) indicate a reversal but I'm not quite buying it just yet.   Certainly worth tracking though, and we will be!


----------



## John W (Dec 5, 2011)

This SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 5, 2011)

Cold pattern setting in on Wed! Thank God!


----------



## Nick (Dec 5, 2011)

No kidding. 50 this morning, again, on my way into work. It's depressing.


----------



## WinnChill (Dec 5, 2011)

andrec10 said:


> Cold pattern setting in on Wed! Thank God!



Yeah, while things may not gel for Tues/Wed, at least temps cool off for massive snowmaking the rest of the week.  We're still watching Thur/Fri for possible storm development too--with a major upper level trough approaching and disturbances to our southwest, we'll be watchfull for something snapping into formation.


----------



## hammer (Dec 5, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> Yeah, while things may not gel for Tues/Wed, at least temps cool off for massive snowmaking the rest of the week.  We're still watching Thur/Fri for possible storm development too--with a major upper level trough approaching and disturbances to our southwest, we'll be watchfull for something snapping into formation.


Is we looking at a real pattern shift or just another temporary cool down?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 5, 2011)

hammer said:


> Is we looking at a real pattern shift or just another temporary cool down?



It's never going to snow again.


----------



## andrec10 (Dec 5, 2011)

BenedictGomez said:


> It's never going to snow again.



Thats not even funny! Saying that around thses parts can get you banned, even in jest! :uzi:

BTW, this looks like the pattern shift we have all been waiting for!


----------



## WinnChill (Dec 5, 2011)

hammer said:


> Is we looking at a real pattern shift or just another temporary cool down?



This one should last a while.  I've been helping a friend build a massive backyard ice rink and am planning on flooding it this week or weekend.


----------



## billski (Dec 5, 2011)

I can't believe I'm getting excited about a dusting of snow, certain to melt during the daytime.
I can only hope the downward trend helps.  My dad used to say, temps right below freezing were a strong harbinger of storms to come.  Old age wisdom, without the science.


----------



## bigbog (Dec 6, 2011)

I know what you mean....the temp gauge does look like a slow turnaround...


----------



## drjeff (Dec 6, 2011)

I can say with 100% certainty that with this coming storm,  I'll be way more happy with what the THERMOMETER is at once the storm is done, than what the ruler is reading!


----------



## billski (Dec 6, 2011)

Winnchill says:
"Friday--Deep upper level low pressure (just what we want to see) sets up over Hudson Bay which will be close enough to send reinforcing cold air our way!  Still some moisture lingers for continued snow showers for northern resorts.

Saturday and Sunday--Reinforcing COLD!  The core of the trough presses in--residual snow showers/flurries subside Saturday but all-out snowmaking continues.  Breezy and very cold with windchills!  A light batch of snow showers may skim by to our north Sunday--CT"

Lionel says
"Beyond that over the weekend we will likely get a shot of reinforcing cold air and possibly tap some great lakes moisture for an upslope event. But that’s a ways off.

Looking LONG term, the forecast looks more wintery than it has in months. Currently the NAO, AO and PNA are all in just about the worst state for EC cold and snow. However, as show below, the ensemble forecasts for all three teleconnections show a return to a more neutral state."


Roger says
"Snow you say - Not so much. Some minor covering on grassy surfaces once again perhaps for Tuesday night and again Friday, but again woefully little for snow lovers looking for a good snow shoe, skiers and snow boarders.... In about two weeks I will be frantic over this but not yet."

THIS GUY at WGGB is really wound up about it:





  What controlled substance is he on? I want some!


Matty says
A shot of colder-than-normal air at the end of this week will mark the first prolonged chill of winter for New England, but this week's 8 to 14 day forecast reveals the pattern is not likely to hold for the Northeast.  A trough in the jet stream will remain in place across the Western United States, and that's where the coldest air will pool next week, with the mean storm track developing along the eastern edge of the cold dome - likely to run through the center of the country.  This puts the Eastern United States on the warm side of a frontal boundary, yet again.  That said, a fast jet stream wind aloft, steering several energetic disturbances, will allow for one moderate storm near the beginning of the week that will briefly tap tropical moisture before high pressure builds across the Southeast US later in the week.  Here in the Northeast, the active jet stream pattern will likely pull just enough cold air southward to keep near-normal temperatures in Northern Maine, but also will bring a couple of energetic disturbances through that may produce rain or snow - one Tuesday or Wednesday, and another toward the end of the week or weekend."

And to make you feel a wee bit better, EOTS almanac speaks up
"A very warm spell was just ending here on the eve of the bombing of Pearl Harbor on this date in 1941.  Burlington set its December record of 67 on the 5th, while St. Johnsbury was 52 on the 6th.  Light rain fell, and was remembered by a local WWII veteran, who told me he ruined a new pair of shoes as he waited outside to enlist.  In spite of that warmth, and even a thaw at Christmas, there was snow on the ground for Christmas Day."

I think I'll take the guy with the hallucinogenics


----------



## billski (Dec 6, 2011)




----------



## WinnChill (Dec 6, 2011)

Wed night/Thurs AM is looking better--I like the chances of a decent storm as the upper level trough through central Canada sets it, especially with the additional system arriving from the southwest so you may see some updated accumulations for that.  There is so much going on with this pattern that it's been hard to time these systems and which one flares up the most, especially with a quasi-stalled frontal system lying through the northeast.


----------



## Glenn (Dec 6, 2011)

5-8" of snow in SoVT would help get things rolling.


----------



## billski (Dec 6, 2011)

Glenn said:


> 5-8" of snow in SoVT would help get things rolling.



Yeah, but not everyone is buying into that.  Still seems too "far away" to put money on (based on my past experience, which ain't worth much!)


----------



## billski (Dec 6, 2011)

Eric @ MRG sez
"Greetings MRG Skiers, 

Well folks we are getting a dose of rain and fog today and we are back to zero snow on the mountain. Temps have been pretty darn balmy of late but have no fear because a return to Winter-like weather is coming soon.  So says the Single Chair Weather Blog! You can also check out the newly refreshed RAMP Weather Page to check out current conditions and latest forecasts.  We are psyched for the real stuff but be aware that our snow guns (all 3 of 'em) are at the ready and we will commence snowmaking operations as soon as temps allow. The plan is to open as soon as we possibly can, so lets all keep our fingers and toes crossed."

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/


----------



## Bene288 (Dec 6, 2011)

I usually don't follow this, but it's prediction is really not too far off.

Farmer's Almanac weather for Dec. 2011/Catskills

DECEMBER 2011: temperature 29° (5° above avg. north, 1° below south); precipitation 3" (avg.); Dec 1-4: Rainy periods, quite mild; 
Dec 5-8: Flurries, seasonable; 
Dec 9-16: Snow showers; mild, then cold; 
Dec 17-21: Blizzard, then windy, cold; 
Dec 22-23: Heavy snow, seasonable; Dec 24-29: Snow showers, mild; 
Dec 30-31: Sunny, cold.

If this is accurate, I'll be spending my Christmas break on the slopes.


----------



## LiquidFeet (Dec 6, 2011)

billski said:


>



I've been trying to find this stuff online but all I get is "last updated 2005."  Can you provide the links?


----------



## billski (Dec 6, 2011)

LiquidFeet said:


> I've been trying to find this stuff online but all I get is "last updated 2005."  Can you provide the links?



You can find them all here.  Right click for the link or just click on the image.
http://www.iabsi.com/public/ski/


Welcome!


----------



## billski (Dec 6, 2011)

Bene288 said:


> I
> Dec 9-16: Snow showers; mild, then cold;
> Dec 17-21: Blizzard, then windy, cold;



Blizzard?  Did I hear blizzard?  I'll have my bags packed and get pre-positioned at Magic where the lifts keep turning no matter what the winds do!   Oh darn, I may have to ski in the woods to find the deep stuff.  

'cmon Ullr!


----------



## billski (Dec 6, 2011)

Bene288 said:


> I usually don't follow this, but it's prediction is really not too far off.
> 
> Farmer's Almanac weather for Dec. 2011/Catskills




I will go with any forecast that says what I want to hear.  When it doesn't pan out, I call them incompetent.


----------



## drjeff (Dec 6, 2011)

Getting better, especially across the recently winter weather "screwed" areas of the Berkshires and So. VT.  Starting to trend both colder and with a greater amount of available moisture!

Somewhere in that general vicinity could be talking a foot by the time the storm finishes up on Thursday!


----------



## billski (Dec 6, 2011)

*nice*

Nice


----------



## billski (Dec 6, 2011)

Powderfreak comments over at americanwx:

"Well the 00z GFS is now about as far NW as I want this, lol. I never expected this. I may have to actually eat my hat if that GFS verifies.

Now I am scared with 24-30 hours still to go. I really never believed this would cut over SNE mainland like GFS is showing.

I can believe how it happens though as I've been very in tune with what is supposed to be happening at the summit of Mansfield for snowmaking operations (ie start times and run times at various elevations), and the cold air just keeps getting delayed with each model run. This change has botched our schedule up as we had crews in tonight based on even last night's 00z guidance of having the H85 freezing line swing through after midnight tonight... now its like midnight tomorrow night. The crew tonight is basically sitting on their thumbs and have no chance of making snow. "

...
"I know you guys don't care about snowmaking temps and what not, but what happens up here at the summit level really has big implications further south and east. Last year we always saw the cold come in sooner at that H85 or H87 level, and thus the tick SE usually... with this storm it is taking its sweet time and keeps getting delayed. "


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 7, 2011)

billski said:


>



Where do you go on the NOAA site to get these now?  I used to have it, but they changed it towards the end of last season, and now all I can get to are those contours graphs (which I dont really like).


----------



## WinnChill (Dec 7, 2011)

billski said:


> Powderfreak comments over at americanwx:
> 
> "Well the 00z GFS is now about as far NW as I want this, lol. I never expected this. I may have to actually eat my hat if that GFS verifies.
> 
> ...



Yeah, it's been very tough forecasting this stuff (isn't it always?).  We had to shift some things around too.  Looks like S VT areas (K-ton through Stratton) favored tonight.


----------



## LiquidFeet (Dec 7, 2011)

billski said:


> You can find them all here.  Right click for the link or just click on the image.
> http://www.iabsi.com/public/ski/
> Welcome!




Wow.  Thanks.


----------



## Glenn (Dec 7, 2011)

This is just what SoVT needs to jump start things....c'mon snow!


----------



## billski (Dec 7, 2011)

BenedictGomez said:


> Where do you go on the NOAA site to get these now?  I used to have it, but they changed it towards the end of last season, and now all I can get to are those contours graphs (which I dont really like).



Each map comes from a different forecast office: Burlington, Albany, Taunton, Gray (Maine), Binghampton, etc.  They came together last year, not every forecast office was doing them and none of them post it at the same place.
You have to look for the words "Storm Total Forecast"  

for example, for grey maine,
the url is http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/
followed by the forecast office "gyx" in this case.
Now you stare at the page looking fo the STF.
aha, ...Latest Snowfall Forecasts, Observations and Archive... click on it.

Now suppose I go to Albany.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly
OK, duh, what do I see.  Duh.
Well, I can't find a link to it.  So I begin browsing the tree.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/
Of course, there it is, In the PAST folder.:dunce: obviously :dunce:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/StormTotalSnowFcst.png

You can thank me and others who ferreted out this stuff.  

Go here to find even more:
http://www.iabsi.com/public/ski/total_snowfall_forecast.html


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 7, 2011)

billski said:


> Each map comes from a different forecast office: Burlington, Albany, Taunton, Gray (Maine), Binghampton, etc.  They came together last year, not every forecast office was doing them and none of them post it at the same place.
> You have to look for the words "Storm Total Forecast"



Thanks, very helpful and bookmarked (yet again).   They used to be much easier to find, now it's like they dont want you to find them


----------



## billski (Dec 7, 2011)

BenedictGomez said:


> Thanks, very helpful and bookmarked (yet again).   They used to be much easier to find, now it's like they dont want you to find them



Each office seems to run to a different drummer.  It's funny when two WFO maps abut and the snow totals don't agree across the line!

Oh, and I forgot to say, they change the locations around a lot  :uzi:


----------



## billski (Dec 7, 2011)

Such a beautiful picture (chart)


----------



## millerm277 (Dec 7, 2011)

Good news for all: Just switched over to all snow here at low elevation in Binghamton, NY. That wasn't supposed to happen until 1AM originally according to the NOAA forecast, and it's colder out than forecast. Storm may be better than expected.


----------



## jaywbigred (Dec 7, 2011)

Dancin I be!


----------



## billski (Dec 7, 2011)

Serious stuff coming down at K


----------



## skidmarks (Dec 7, 2011)

billski said:


> Serious stuff coming down at K



As luck would have it we're going to Killington this weekend!!


----------



## LiquidFeet (Dec 8, 2011)

billski said:


> Serious stuff coming down at K



willing to provide link?  I'l like to be able to access this one.


----------



## riverc0il (Dec 8, 2011)

Bust here in Ashland, NH. Looks pretty icy out there with a frozen dusting. Lee ridge lines got white though but very localized to south eastern facing from out my window, bizarre. Maybe the Whites fared better?


----------



## Glenn (Dec 8, 2011)

Anyone have a total for SoVT? Hard to tell via Mt Snow webcams this AM. Looks like a few inches. They were calling for 8-16", but I think it started later than expected.


----------



## MommaBear (Dec 8, 2011)

Glenn said:


> Anyone have a total for SoVT? Hard to tell via Mt Snow webcams this AM. Looks like a few inches. They were calling for 8-16", but I think it started later than expected.



Mount Snow is saying 2.5.   :-?


----------



## vcunning (Dec 8, 2011)

MommaBear said:


> Mount Snow is saying 2.5.   :-?



Randy has some snowmaking work to do then.  I'm sure we'll owe him a few beers (if he's awake to drink them)


----------



## bigbog (Dec 8, 2011)

SR should've gotten 6" out of this...SL?.  Seems as though Tux/GG/GOS should've gotten as much....y/n?


----------



## Bostonian (Dec 8, 2011)

Well at least it is colder now...  So hopefully this r*!n storm will usher in some snow making temps.  I am chomping at the bit here. May take monday off to hit somewhere after dropping the little guy off at day care.


----------



## ALLSKIING (Dec 8, 2011)

K is saying 5 inches so a bit of a bust but the cold is back and the guns are on!


----------



## rocojerry (Dec 8, 2011)

SL 5-7, SR 1, I heard on the news there is a 10" jackpot out there somewhere?


----------



## wa-loaf (Dec 8, 2011)

bigbog said:


> SR should've gotten 6" out of this...SL?.  Seems as though Tux/GG/GOS should've gotten as much....y/n?



Sugarloaf is reporting 5-7" and wind hold ....


----------



## from_the_NEK (Dec 8, 2011)

Lyndonville/St J valley area has about 3". Above 1500' = 5-7.


----------



## John W (Dec 8, 2011)

This storm look like it Busted a little bit...  Some areas called for 5-10 inches but those same places got 1-5... Mount Snow was forecasted 10-16 and got 2....  DARN!!!  But it's colder..  

Anyone out there see better then 5-7???


----------



## ALLSKIING (Dec 8, 2011)

John W said:


> This storm look like it Busted a little bit...  Some areas called for 5-10 inches but those same places got 1-5... Mount Snow was forecasted 10-16 and got 2....  DARN!!!  But it's colder..
> 
> Anyone out there see better then 5-7???


Hunter said 7 at the base and more at the peak.


----------



## MarkC (Dec 8, 2011)

7-8 at Plattekill.


----------



## WinnChill (Dec 8, 2011)

Yeah, this one underperformed a bit.  We were generally thinking about half a foot and then accounted for summits getting a bit more as snow levels dropped.  Some forecasts worked out, some didn't.  I was surprised with K-ton though.


----------



## jrmagic (Dec 8, 2011)

I'm just happy that we now have some decent snomaking weather adn that the pattern has been bumped a bit.


----------



## billski (Dec 8, 2011)

SADDLEBACK MAINE
‎7" fell overnight!


----------



## billski (Dec 8, 2011)

Burke

Loon
Snowmaking will continue today on top of the 1-4 inches we received last night!


----------



## billski (Dec 8, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> Yeah, this one underperformed a bit.  We were generally thinking about half a foot and then accounted for summits getting a bit more as snow levels dropped.  Some forecasts worked out, some didn't.  I was surprised with K-ton though.



So Winn, what's the longer range picture for temperatures?


----------



## psyflyer (Dec 8, 2011)

6 for Burke.  Still snowing pretty hard.  At least 1-2 inches since 9am.


----------



## Glenn (Dec 8, 2011)

Eeek! So much for a foot or more at Mt Snow! Oh well, that's what fan guns are for. Glad it's cold out!


----------



## billski (Dec 8, 2011)




----------



## billski (Dec 8, 2011)

*Aly*

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=PNS

********************storm total snowfall********************

location          storm total     time/date   comments
                     snowfall           of
                     /inches/   measurement

connecticut

...litchfield county...
   Norfolk                2.8   800 am 12/08  co-op observer
   bakersville            0.3   700 am 12/08  co-op observer

massachusetts

...berkshire county...
   Savoy                  5.0   826 am 12/08  weathernet6
   alford                 4.0   750 am 12/08  weathernet6
   clarksburg             4.0   524 am 12/08  weathernet6
   williamstown           3.5   632 am 12/08  spotter
   lanesborough           3.0   639 am 12/08  weathernet6
   north otis             3.0   800 am 12/08  trained spotter
   lenox dale             3.0   735 am 12/08  trained spotter
   pittsfield             1.5   720 am 12/08  weathernet6
   becket                 1.0  1111 am 12/08  spotter

new york

...albany county...
   South berne            5.0   516 am 12/08  weathernet6
   knox                   3.0   943 am 12/08  weathernet6
   medusa                 1.8   654 am 12/08  weathernet6
   boght corners          1.2   630 am 12/08  nws employee
   voorheesville          0.7  1006 am 12/08  spotter
   1 ene mckownville      0.6   500 am 12/08  nws office
   1 ne shakers           0.6   500 am 12/08  albany airport
   glenmont               0.5   530 am 12/08  weathernet6

...columbia county...
   Copake                 5.0   432 am 12/08  weathernet6
   taghkanic              3.8   742 am 12/08  weathernet6
   ancramdale             3.8   549 am 12/08  weathernet6
   north chatham          3.0   814 am 12/08  weathernet6
   chatham center         3.0   403 am 12/08  weathernet6
   livingston             2.5   740 am 12/08  weathernet6
   hudson                 1.0   948 am 12/08  weathernet6

...dutchess county...
   Lagrangeville          1.5   530 am 12/08  meteorologist

...fulton county...
   7 nw gloversville      0.7   800 am 12/08  co-op observer
   caroga lake            0.5   700 am 12/08  weathernet6
   northville             0.5   600 am 12/08  weathernet6

...greene county...
   East jewett            7.8   615 am 12/08  co-op observer
   elka park              6.3   430 am 12/08  weathernet6
   maplecrest             6.0   800 am 12/08  weathernet6
   ashland                5.5   621 am 12/08  weathernet6
   halcott center         5.0   858 am 12/08  weathernet6
   prattsville            3.0   315 am 12/08  weathernet6

...hamilton county...
   2 sw indian lake       0.6   630 am 12/08  co-op observer
   indian lake            0.5   545 am 12/08  weathernet6

...montgomery county...
   Amsterdam              1.0   702 am 12/08  weathernet6
   fort plain lk 15       1.0   715 am 12/08  co-op observer

...rensselaer county...
   Grafton                8.8   705 am 12/08  weathernet6
   east nassau            5.3   705 am 12/08  trained spotter
   poestenkill            4.2   722 am 12/08  spotter
   1 ne melrose           4.0   700 am 12/08  co-op observer
   brunswick              3.9   600 am 12/08  co-op observer
   sycaway                3.9   600 am 12/08  nws employee
   troy                   2.0   700 am 12/08  co-op observer

...saratoga county...
   Schuylerville          1.5   700 am 12/08  co-op observer
   clifton park           1.5   730 am 12/08  nws employee
   saratoga springs       1.1   634 am 12/08  weathernet6
   malta                  0.5  1029 am 12/08  weathernet6
   wilton                 0.1   803 am 12/08  retired faa observer

...schenectady county...
   Niskayuna              0.3   700 am 12/08  co-op observer

...schoharie county...
   Jefferson              5.0   554 am 12/08  weathernet6
   2 ese cobleskill       4.0   735 am 12/08  co-op observer
   7 n north blenheim     3.0   800 am 12/08  co-op observer
   richmondville          2.0   515 am 12/08  weathernet6
   schoharie              0.5   600 am 12/08  co-op observer

...ulster county...
   Slide mountain         8.0   700 am 12/08  co-op observer
   highmount              6.0   832 am 12/08  weathernet6
   phoenicia              0.5   600 am 12/08  co-op observer

...warren county...
   Brant lake             1.0   643 am 12/08  weathernet6
   5 se north creek       0.3   700 am 12/08  co-op observer

...washington county...
   Hebron                 5.5   626 am 12/08  weathernet6
   granville              2.0   428 am 12/08  weathernet6
   cossayuna              2.0   843 am 12/08  weathernet6
   whitehall              1.8   551 am 12/08  weathernet6
   hudson falls           1.0   539 am 12/08  weathernet6

vermont

...bennington county...
   Pownal                 7.0   735 am 12/08  co-op observer
   landgrove              5.5   744 am 12/08  weathernet6
   woodford               4.0   718 am 12/08  weathernet6
   west arlington         3.3   608 am 12/08  weathernet6
   sunderland-2           3.0   700 am 12/08  co-op observer

...windham county...
   Marlboro               2.5   600 am 12/08  co-op observer
   ball mountain lake     0.5   700 am 12/08  co-op observer


----------



## billski (Dec 8, 2011)




----------



## WinnChill (Dec 8, 2011)

billski said:


> So Winn, what's the longer range picture for temperatures?



Not bad Bill, although we warm up a bit after the weekend for a bit with high pressure again but temps should remain just cold enough to continue snowmaking.  With a good solid stretch the next few days that most areas will be able to go full blast and be in good shape.  Some troughing returns later next week along with the storm track so it may get interesting once again.


----------



## hammer (Dec 8, 2011)

The other good thing is that the snowmaking ponds should be quite full by now...


----------

