# Week of Feb 27 to March 3 -- 2012



## billski (Feb 25, 2012)

I think WinnChill is on to something.  He writes,

"The midweek storm looks more substantial so we'll be watching that closely--maybe some mixing for southern areas. Stay tuned!"

So I did a little snooping, and found this from NWS:


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1119 AM EST SAT FEB 25 2012

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

--

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
334 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2012


MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY. EXPECT A PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. MORE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN UPPER DYNAMICS DOMINATE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE WILL TRACK A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW AS OPPOSED TO MIX OR RAIN. IN
ANY EVENT...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENT.

AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THURSDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES AS RIDGING BOTH AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE SHOULD HOLD FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NEXT LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM SLATED TO
IMPACT THE REGION NEXT SATURDAY.


I can't believe I'll be up north this Sun/Mon and back again on Thurs-Sunday.  
I don't think there will be many friends this week!


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## billski (Feb 25, 2012)

*Herb Stevens*

Herb Stevens is getting cranked:

"Written by Herb Stevens-The Skiing Weatherman on 24 February 2012.

As I suggested in my last report, the pattern was about to enter a phase that would finally bring some snow to the Midwest and Northeast on more of a regular basis
..
it will NOT signal the start of spring, for an MJO driven return to cold and potentially snowy weather later in the month will be a good bet...and good news as we attempt to stretch this frustrating season out toward the Easter holiday.

...
The parade of storms will continue next week, with the next one set to move through with a round of light snow in the mountains Monday and Tuesday. There will be a shot of cold air behind that event, and it will penetrate further down the eastern seaboard, which will set the stage for a more widespread snow and ice event through the East in the midweek period,
...

By the fifth of March or so, it looks as though it will turn warmer over the eastern half of the country, with a more significant trough taking shape in the West. That bodes well for skiing and riding in the West, but that could be the death knell for the season at some lower elevation eastern resorts, where they have never had the chance to build up the sort of base depths that would sustain sliding well into March. 

The moral of the story is this in the Midwest and East...if you want to enjoy mid winter packed powder, you'd better get out there in the next ten days...after that, we will be looking at more spring-like surfaces. 


Next week will bring another storm or two, and the track will be determined in part by how far south the cold shot that is coming late in the weekend makes it. Right now, I favor a track along I-90, with a secondary low forming along the coast, which will serve to limit the amount of warm air that can spread into northern New England. North of the track it will snow...south of the track it will be a snow to rain scenario, or just plain rain, I am afraid. So, in the near term, conditions will be just fine north of I-90, with good snow also found between I-90 and I-80. South of 80, it appears that both consistent cold and natural snow will be in short supply, as the storm track will be running further north. Another storm would appear to be in the cards late next week, and once again, it appears as though low pressure will cut through the Northeast, rather than take a coastal track, so a mix of precip types will result, with the northern resorts likely to be the winners...again.


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## MommaBear (Feb 25, 2012)

Not making the same mistake twice.  Will be headed further North for the next one.  Kids and their terrain park be damned.    :smash:


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## Wavewheeler (Feb 25, 2012)

*Let is snow!*

  This could coincide well with my planned trip Thurs-Friday. I don't know where I'm winding up on Wednesday night when I pack the skis in my Jeep and head north but hopefully someplace WHITE because this could be IT! Ah, to wake up to fresh white stuff on Thursday....

If I have to go further north in search of it...I will! I can't tell you how depressing it's been this year to drive through brown and more brown to get to the slopes.  I pray that it doesn't rain. I hate rain....


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## Wavewheeler (Feb 25, 2012)

MommaBear said:


> Not making the same mistake twice.  Will be headed further North for the next one.  Kids and their terrain park be damned.    :smash:



Now I have to ask..what happened?


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## MommaBear (Feb 25, 2012)

Wavewheeler said:


> Now I have to ask..what happened?



We own near Mount Snow but have tickets via ski club for other mountains (Burke, Magic, Killington) still to be used this year.  They were calling for 5 inches or so but it rained all day yesterday.  We talked about hitting one of the other mountains higher up for today but let our terrain park kids talk us out of it.  Result?  2 inches received, wind holds on all summit lifts, north face never opened.  The Nitro lift opened so the kids had their parks.  I spent the day working at the condo and reading about the foot of power at Burke with no wind. Blah.    .


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## Wavewheeler (Feb 25, 2012)

MommaBear said:


> I spent the day working at the condo and reading about the foot of power at Burke with no wind. Blah.    .



I guess Mount Snow didn't get much in the way of snow. I've never been there because it seems there's always a lot more in the way of better conditions just an hour north

 As a parent I feel your pain. I hate when a day is "wasted" and all you do is think of lost opportunities.


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## St. Bear (Feb 25, 2012)

Gotta hope this long term forecast comes through.  The wifey owes me for missing this weekend.


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## steamboat1 (Feb 26, 2012)

.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 26, 2012)

Yahoo snow coming are way.


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## 4aprice (Feb 27, 2012)

billski said:


> Herb Stevens is getting cranked:
> 
> "Written by Herb Stevens-The Skiing Weatherman on 24 February 2012.
> 
> ...



Bill: 

This to me is the post of the season.  I'm hoping Mr Stevens is right.  My PA season obligations (read race season) ended yesterday and I'm now free to get up north at my whim.  I'll take the spring condtions down here locally and hope the north country gets plastered and lasts till Easter.  Thanks for posting this and making my day. (maybe my season).  See you all up in the north country.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## WJenness (Feb 27, 2012)

Maneuvering for a last-minute vacation day on Thursday begins NOW...

-w


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## Puck it (Feb 27, 2012)

I am thinking the same.


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## mriceyman (Feb 27, 2012)

Headed up north Wednesday or thursday for a long weekend... cant wait


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## Cheese (Feb 27, 2012)

Ditto!

Mandatory "_*Board*_" meeting!!!!!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 27, 2012)

Accuweather has this up today, but keep in mind they do a terrible job with elevation (I think we have all seen some recent evidence of this). 

 Plus, all that would have to happen is the models come just a very little bit north, and BOOM!!!!


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## Tooth (Feb 27, 2012)

Praying things do get a little north. They better if people want to be skiing into May.


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## WinnChill (Feb 27, 2012)

I'm liking a swath of most snow from about SVT thru S/Central NH to S ME...basically a stretch from Stratton-K-ton thru Sunapee/Gunstock/up to Loon/Cannon over to Shawnee...lesser amounts for northernmost VT/NH/ME areas this time....Waterville, Sunapee and perhaps Gunstock the highlights.  The key is that prolonged SE flow from Wed night thru Thurs funneling ocean moisture in....could be interesting.  We're ballparking between half a foot and a foot but will see if we need to adjust that higher.  We'll see.


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## John W (Feb 27, 2012)

Dr Chill!!! How the hell are ya!!!  I have thursday and friday avail to me.  I was seeing that Elk in the poconos is expecting heavy snow.  I have been DYING to try Gore (never been) and my brother lives in Saratoga.  So I could go there..  And I have a ticket left over to Killington.  So saratoga means I could head that way too.  I guess my question for you is??  At this early day in the week, which location looks most worth the drive from QUEENS BLVD in Queens NY???

Can I check in Wednesday evening??


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## WinnChill (Feb 27, 2012)

John W said:


> Dr Chill!!! How the hell are ya!!!  I have thursday and friday avail to me.  I was seeing that Elk in the poconos is expecting heavy snow.  I have been DYING to try Gore (never been) and my brother lives in Saratoga.  So I could go there..  And I have a ticket left over to Killington.  So saratoga means I could head that way too.  I guess my question for you is??  At this early day in the week, which location looks most worth the drive from QUEENS BLVD in Queens NY???
> 
> Can I check in Wednesday evening??



At this point, skip Elk.  Gore or K-ton--take your pick...both should make out well.  I'll update through the week.


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## Tooth (Feb 27, 2012)

Hey WinnChill. Im hearing this is looking great for the Maine mountains. Are things ticking a bit north as the mets are saying? Did you see this?

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif


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## WinnChill (Feb 27, 2012)

Tooth said:


> Hey WinnChill. Im hearing this is looking great for the Maine mountains. Are things ticking a bit north as the mets are saying? Did you see this?
> 
> http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif



Very slightly if anything, but anytime you get a broad E-SE flow off the ocean, most of ME and NH are fair game anyways.  NAM tends to everdo precip a bit so be cautious with those maps.  This will be a lengthy upslope enhancement setup so your E-SE facing slopes like Sunday River, Black, and possibly Sugarloaf will be favored.


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## John W (Feb 27, 2012)

Thanks Dr Chill!!!!  I appreciate the advice!


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## Wavewheeler (Feb 27, 2012)

mriceyman said:


> Headed up north Wednesday or thursday for a long weekend... cant wait



Same here! I'd already planned to head up north and this is some serious icing on the cake!". 

Made a hotel reservation at a hotel in North Creek and arranged to take off early from work Wednesday. Hope to be driving up/waking up in a winter wonderland. Glad I have 4WD!


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## billski (Feb 27, 2012)

Wavewheeler said:


> Same here! I'd already planned to head up north and this is some serious icing on the cake!".
> 
> Made a hotel reservation at a hotel in North Creek and arranged to take off early from work Wednesday. Hope to be driving up/waking up in a winter wonderland. Glad I have 4WD!



Where you dudes going to be?  I met up with Edd and a colleague today at Burke.  I'll be at JP and $$teaux this Sat/Fri.


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## billski (Feb 27, 2012)

NECN, Tim Kelly


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## billski (Feb 27, 2012)

WBZ


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## Tooth (Feb 27, 2012)

Billski,

What are thoughts here? Those maps dont match up very well.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 27, 2012)

Tooth said:


> Those maps dont match up very well.



If I had to guess, I'd think maybe it's because the models are kindof disagreeing on this, so some mets may come up with different visions based on which model(s) they're giving more credence.   Some seem to be cutting a bit south, some seem to be trending a  bit north.  We'll know more in a little bit when the 00z UKMET and Euro come out.  Think....north....north...north....north....north......


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## Glenn (Feb 28, 2012)

SoVT could use a good dose of natural snow at this point.


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## Tooth (Feb 28, 2012)

70's next week. Oh no. Torch.   :flame:


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## mlctvt (Feb 28, 2012)

Tooth said:


> 70's next week. Oh no. Torch.   :flame:



I saw that on the weather forums too. WTF can this season get any worse ! They're calling this storm the "season ending" storm due to the torch coming next week. 

NOAA is calling for snow turning to freezing rain for southern VTwith up to 1/4" of ice. Most other reports are still calling for all snow. I was thinking of taking Friday of from work so I could get at least 1 powder day in this year but it looks like it's all up in the air still.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 28, 2012)

It's snowing at mount snow now, today will be great.


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## hammer (Feb 28, 2012)

What I don't like is the NCP forecast for Saturday...nice to see the snow for Wed-Thurs but I don't see this one as being worthy of another day off from work.


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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)

Tooth said:


> 70's next week. Oh no. Torch.   :flame:



Tim Kelly said we only have ten days of pow.  I'm starting to think that softened up woods will be nice.  Stay north for base.


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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)

hammer said:


> What I don't like is the NCP forecast for Saturday...nice to see the snow for Wed-Thurs but I don't see this one as being worthy of another day off from work.


  I'll let you know


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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)

Tooth said:


> Billski,
> 
> What are thoughts here? Those maps dont match up very well.



I don't know nothing about weather, I just rely on my gut.  Those two maps say that nobody knows.  My gut says it will be a crapshoot right up to the 11th hour.  Sometimes I win, sometimes  I lose.  I win more than I lose, but we don't get many pow days here.  "You won't know until you go"

I lean heavily on Snowforecast/Winnchill, FIS, Little bits I glean from powderfreak, Tim Kelly and Herb Stevens.  No original analysis on my part, just plagiarized intelligence, and past track records..

Go in the woods and see what the critters are doing.  That is as good a predictor than anything scientific.  

BTW, we have not heard from Voodoo Lady in a long time....


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## WinnChill (Feb 28, 2012)

hammer said:


> What I don't like is the NCP forecast for Saturday...nice to see the snow for Wed-Thurs but I don't see this one as being worthy of another day off from work.



Hmmm, you may want to reconsider.


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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)

Look, can't decide wheter to take a day off from work?  Look at these reports from today.
'nuff said.
NWS:
GIVEN THE TWO SHOTS OF STEADIER SNOWS...HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8
INCHES OF SNOW WILL EXIST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. IN ADDITION...THERMAL
PROFILE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SUGGESTS SOME SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK.

afd:
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ACCUMULATING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP WILL LAST INTO INTO THU NIGHT
* ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN ON SATURDAY

CONFIDENCE...
TRICKY FORECAST TO START AS MODELS HAVE A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WED
THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
OCCUR...BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXIST ON THE TIMING OF SWITCHING THE
SNOW TO MIXED PRECIP TO RAIN AS WELL AS THE EXACT LOCATION THAT WILL
OCCUR. INCREASING CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO SWEEP ON
BY ON SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MARCH SEEMS TO ENTER AS A LION AS THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE A LONGER
DURATION OF SNOW FOR THE REGION BEGINNING WED LATE AFTERNOON AND
LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS...
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER
ROUND WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF
QG FORCING ALOFT...HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING...NAM IS HINTING THAT BANDING MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER STILL TO
EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION THAT THIS MAY OCCUR. FOR NOW CAN
SAY THAT SOME REGIONS WILL SEE MODERATE SNOWFALL AS THERE IS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND MAY CAUSE FOR A MESSY EVENING COMMUTE. THE MAIN
MIXED PRECIP LINE IS RIGHT ACROSS CONNECTICUT TO THE CAPE. THIS MAY
CHANGE AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE OF ATMOSPHERE AS TIME DRAWS
NEAR. CURRENTLY COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE ACCUMS BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON EXACT AMOUNTS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON THURSDAY TEMPS
WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH
COAST. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ESP ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE
TURNPIKE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE MAY
BE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WARNING. FOR NOW
WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH AND EXPECT 6-8 INCHES ACROSS
WESTERN MASS AND INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE REST OF THE WATCH
AREA WILL SEE 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW. ACROSS THE 95 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARDS...INCLUDING PVD AND BOS...EXPECT 1-4 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS
WILL CHANGE OVERTIME SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE MAIN WINTER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...HOWEVER PRECIP MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. BELIEVE FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE MOIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE AREA. 


Go now dudes:
from american wx:

I think we see widespread 70+ the 2nd week of Morch. This is it winter fans. The season finale is this storm.

Morch is sping

If models are right, it could be that warm. 70 anyways.


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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)

Look, can't decide wheter to take a day off from work?  Look at these reports from today.
'nuff said.
NWS:
GIVEN THE TWO SHOTS OF STEADIER SNOWS...HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8
INCHES OF SNOW WILL EXIST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. IN ADDITION...THERMAL
PROFILE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SUGGESTS SOME SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK.

afd:
HIGHLIGHTS...

* ACCUMULATING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP WILL LAST INTO INTO THU NIGHT
* ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN ON SATURDAY

CONFIDENCE...
TRICKY FORECAST TO START AS MODELS HAVE A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WED
THROUGH FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
OCCUR...BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXIST ON THE TIMING OF SWITCHING THE
SNOW TO MIXED PRECIP TO RAIN AS WELL AS THE EXACT LOCATION THAT WILL
OCCUR. INCREASING CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO SWEEP ON
BY ON SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MARCH SEEMS TO ENTER AS A LION AS THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE A LONGER
DURATION OF SNOW FOR THE REGION BEGINNING WED LATE AFTERNOON AND
LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

DETAILS...
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER
ROUND WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF
QG FORCING ALOFT...HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDING...NAM IS HINTING THAT BANDING MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER STILL TO
EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION THAT THIS MAY OCCUR. FOR NOW CAN
SAY THAT SOME REGIONS WILL SEE MODERATE SNOWFALL AS THERE IS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND MAY CAUSE FOR A MESSY EVENING COMMUTE. THE MAIN
MIXED PRECIP LINE IS RIGHT ACROSS CONNECTICUT TO THE CAPE. THIS MAY
CHANGE AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE OF ATMOSPHERE AS TIME DRAWS
NEAR. CURRENTLY COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ICE ACCUMS BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON EXACT AMOUNTS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON THURSDAY TEMPS
WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH
COAST. THIS WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ESP ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE
TURNPIKE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE MAY
BE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO WARRANT A WINTER STORM WARNING. FOR NOW
WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH AND EXPECT 6-8 INCHES ACROSS
WESTERN MASS AND INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. WHILE THE REST OF THE WATCH
AREA WILL SEE 2-6 INCHES OF SNOW. ACROSS THE 95 CORRIDOR AND
EASTWARDS...INCLUDING PVD AND BOS...EXPECT 1-4 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS
WILL CHANGE OVERTIME SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE MAIN WINTER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...HOWEVER PRECIP MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. BELIEVE FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AS LOW LEVELS ARE STILL QUITE MOIST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE AREA. 


Go now dudes:
from american wx:

I think we see widespread 70+ the 2nd week of Morch. This is it winter fans. The season finale is this storm.

Morch is sping

If models are right, it could be that warm. 70 anyways.


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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Hmmm, you may want to reconsider.



+100 squared


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## St. Bear (Feb 28, 2012)

hammer said:


> What I don't like is the NCP forecast for Saturday...nice to see the snow for Wed-Thurs but I don't see this one as being worthy of another day off from work.



I agree about Sat.  I was looking forward to skiing packed powder for once this year, and now it's a mixed event, at best.  This season has made me a very bitter man.


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## 180 (Feb 28, 2012)

What about Southern VT?


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## 4aprice (Feb 28, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Hmmm, you may want to reconsider.



Not sure how to translate this.  

Where are people seeing the 70's next week?  I saw 50's in the Vermont mountains but nothing close to 70.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## WinnChill (Feb 28, 2012)

4aprice said:


> Not sure how to translate this.
> 
> Where are people seeing the 70's next week?  I saw 50's in the Vermont mountains but nothing close to 70.
> 
> ...



Just if Hammer was considering being "sick" Thurs or Friday before any NCP Saturday.  Also, keep in mind that talk of 70's is from a weather forum where most are from southern New England--much different forecasts.  Important to keep everything in context.  But we are expecting a warm spike late next week.


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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Just if Hammer was considering being "sick" Thurs or Friday before any NCP Saturday.  Also, keep in mind that talk of 70's is from a weather forum where most are from southern New England--much different forecasts.  Important to keep everything in context.  But we are expecting a warm spike late next week.



Agree me.  Keep  you eye on the higher elevations.  It's interesting to see the lower el. discussions, it sort of gives you a clue what lies ahead.  Between temp differentials, wind and upslope (and probably others WC more capably articulates) it's all got to be taken in conext.

BTW,  The NEK radio stations in VT were reporting this snow as "good news" yesterday.  Glad someone's got the right attitude!


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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)

Oh, one more thing.  I was skiing at, I think it was Magic last month.  It was absolutely pouring in the morning.   So much so I was planning on going home.  I went to the lodge sat for an hour, and then said, what the hell, let's go ski a run or two.  Halfway up the chair it was snowing, and the snow quality was great.  I had some red wax on that helped, but I probably should have had yellow.  Anyways, it was 100% snowing top to bottom by noon.  I had a blast.


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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)

*Maps are posted*

[/URL]


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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)

Freezing Rain,


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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)




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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)




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## hammer (Feb 28, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Hmmm, you may want to reconsider.


Have to see about Friday I guess...maybe Magic?  Have Loon passes but those should be OK for spring skiing even if we get a warm-up.


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## petergriffen (Feb 28, 2012)

I'll be cannon Thursday hopefully worth the day off work


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## Puck it (Feb 28, 2012)

Question about timing?  Is it Thursday or Friday for the powder?


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## WinnChill (Feb 28, 2012)

Puck it said:


> Question about timing?  Is it Thursday or Friday for the powder?



Snowfall mainly Wed night thru most of Thurs--a slightly drawn out, steady snow event.


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## Puck it (Feb 28, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Snowfall mainly Wed night thru most of Thurs--a slightly drawn out, steady snow event.


 
Cannon website says snow thru Thursday night.  What are daytime snow amounts looking like on Thursday for Cannon?  And does it turn off there?


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## WinnChill (Feb 28, 2012)

Puck it said:


> Cannon website says snow thru Thursday night.  What are daytime snow amounts looking like on Thursday for Cannon?  And does it turn off there?



Here you go.


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## WJenness (Feb 28, 2012)

Work Boss has approved Thursday powder hunting...

Now just need to line up the home front.

-w


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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)

Puck it said:


> Question about timing?  Is it Thursday or Friday for the powder?



Yes.  :razz:


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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Snowfall mainly Wed night thru most of Thurs--a slightly drawn out, steady snow event.



Oh, I can't wait to be driving in it!  :-?
This will be the first time all year I get to drive during a snowfall.


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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)

*Urgent - winter weather message*

Urgent - winter weather message
national weather service burlington vt
247 pm est tue feb 28 2012

the national weather service in burlington continues the winter
storm watch...from wednesday evening through thursday evening.

* locations...all of northern new york and vermont.

* hazard types...moderate snow along with mixed precipitation
  over parts of northern new york.

* accumulations...snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches...with up to
  10 inches in south central vermont and along the eastern slopes of the
  adirondacks and green mountains. Up to one tenth of an inch of
  ice is possible in the saint lawrence valley of new york.

* timing...snow will begin late in the day on wednesday and
  become moderate at times wednesday night and thursday. Mixed
  precipitation will also be possible over parts of northern new
  york late wednesday night into thursday morning.


* impacts...accumulating snows will create hazardous travel
  conditions. Mixed precipitation over northern new york will
  also add to the hazardous travel conditions.

* winds...southeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* temperatures...lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 30s.

* visibilities...one mile or less in moderate snow.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

------------------------

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service albany ny
351 pm est tue feb 28 2012

accumulations...snow and sleet accumulations of 4 to 8 inches
  are possible...with higher amounts of 8 to 14 inches across the
  saratoga region eastward across southern vermont and into the
  northern berkshires and northern taconics.

* timing...snow will overspread the area with sleet mixing in
  during the evening and continue into thursday morning. A
  changeover to rain is possible during the day thursday up the
  hudson valley. The precipitation will taper off by late in day.

* impacts...hazardous travel conditions.

* winds...east to southeast 5 to 15 mph.

* temperatures...in the upper 20s to lower 30s rising into to the
  mid and upper 30s on thursday.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 28, 2012)

At this point, I'm more worried about odds of rain on Saturday than how much snow falls Wed/Thurs.

If I'm reading the GFS properly, it looks rain cant be avoided even if you go really far north like Stowe or Jay?  This would make me a sad panda. So if I'm looking at this correctly, hopefully the GFS continues to be wrong as it often has been.


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## St. Bear (Feb 28, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> At this point, I'm more worried about odds of rain on Saturday than how much snow falls Wed/Thurs.
> 
> If I'm reading the GFS properly, it looks rain cant be avoided even if you go really far north like Stowe or Jay?  This would make me a sad panda. So if I'm looking at this correctly, hopefully the GFS continues to be wrong as it often has been.



I think I'm going up to ski regardless if it rains or not.  I had plans to ski each of the last two weekends, and had to cancel.  I don't care if I need scuba gear.


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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)

Skiing in the rain can be a lot of fun, provided it hasn't frozen up yet.  You get the place to yourself and some really good snow.

$teaux or JP, flip a coin.


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## soposkier (Feb 28, 2012)

Sugarloaf and maybe Saddleback are looking like they might survive Saturday without much NFP.  Fingers crossed....


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## Tooth (Feb 28, 2012)

soposkier said:


> Sugarloaf and maybe Saddleback are looking like they might survive Saturday without much NFP.  Fingers crossed....



I am so happy to hear this. Roemer called this today over on bestskiweather.com. I heard Sugarloaf may even get snow next week, even in the face of warmth.


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## tipsdown (Feb 28, 2012)

Wow if that's the case I'm there.


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## Tooth (Feb 28, 2012)

tipsdown said:


> Wow if that's the case I'm there.



"Another rain changing to snow system is likely later next week." If you didnt see this over on the other site. From Bestskiweather.com's todays report.

At our elevation could be sleet/snow mix or wet snow. Southern NE will see the NFP to mix.


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## billski (Feb 28, 2012)

Tooth said:


> I am so happy to hear this. Roemer called this today over on bestskiweather.com. I heard Sugarloaf may even get snow next week, even in the face of warmth.



Maybe
http://snowforecast.com/SundayRiverSkiResort
Sat
60-70% chance of snow turning to mixed showers

stowe
sat
60-70% chance of snow turning to mixed showers

same forecast at Bretton Woods


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 28, 2012)

Starting to get a real bad feeling about this one.  GFS looks AWFUL.   It would be par for the 2011-2012 course for the best conditions of the entire ski season to be wiped out by a significant rain event the next week.  I'll probably have to make a go/no go decision on this one by Thursday night, but it aint looking too good right now.


----------



## billski (Feb 28, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> Starting to get a real bad feeling about this one.  GFS looks AWFUL.   It would be par for the 2011-2012 course for the best conditions of the entire ski season to be wiped out by a significant rain event the next week.  I'll probably have to make a go/no go decision on this one by Thursday night, but it aint looking too good right now.



Look, I'll be there Thursday afternoon.  We'll see.  PM me.


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## mlctvt (Feb 28, 2012)

Looks like NOAA Albany has increased their snow forecast for Mount Snow/ Magic to 10-14 inches. Look at BillSki's post #48. 

Thursday and Friday look great before the spoiler r**n hits Friday night & Sat . It looks like I have to wait and drive up early Friday morning but I wouldn't mind being there Thursday too.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 28, 2012)

billski said:


> Look, *I'll be there Thursday afternoon.*  We'll see.  PM me.



Lucky you.  Thursday and Friday will be awesome.



mlctvt said:


> Thursday and Friday look great before the* spoiler r**n hits Friday night & Sat* .



And I'm now starting to worry about potential high winds in addition to rain during the weekend given there's a cold front right on the heels of that warm air.   Any of our weather experts have any thoughts on this as to whether my fear is valid or not?


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## ScottySkis (Feb 29, 2012)

I Think this Saturday might have really nice spring conditions may go to Hunter (soft snow and march-means crowds will be down for sure.


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## bheemsoth (Feb 29, 2012)

Debating on taking a sick day tomorrow. The Magic forecast is intriguing.


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## WinnChill (Feb 29, 2012)

bheemsoth said:


> Debating on taking a sick day tomorrow. The Magic forecast is intriguing.



Note our slogan in signature below  :razz:

I've got a touch of something too.


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## KTammaro (Feb 29, 2012)

I'm SNOW excited NE is finally getting some!  Attitash and Sugarloaf planned for March! finallllly!


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## Mitchdog8 (Feb 29, 2012)

Doing a lil snow dance for north conway! Attitash soon!


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## billski (Feb 29, 2012)

bheemsoth said:


> Debating on taking a sick day tomorrow. The Magic forecast is intriguing.



You have no choice.


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## billski (Feb 29, 2012)

here
it 
comes


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## billski (Feb 29, 2012)




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## abc (Feb 29, 2012)

Scotty said:


> I Think this Saturday might have really nice spring conditions may go to Hunter (soft snow and march-means crowds will be down for sure.


by spring condition, you mean rain?


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## billski (Feb 29, 2012)

Snowing in Andover, Mass.


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## WJenness (Feb 29, 2012)

Woburn, MA as well... Starting to stick at the edges of the parking lot, not accumulating on cars or pavement in center of the lot yet.

-w


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## ScottySkis (Feb 29, 2012)

abc said:


> by spring condition, you mean rain?



If it gets in to 40s on saturday that could bring nice soft snow. I just saw the rain forecast for saturday,  I hope lots of people on the fourm can go this week.


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## billski (Feb 29, 2012)

Check out the traffic cams in NY State.  Make sure the webcam is checked

I think Christmas has finally arrived.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 29, 2012)

Scotty said:


> If it gets in to 40s on saturday that could bring nice soft snow.



It's supposed to rain on Saturday, is what he meant.


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## billski (Feb 29, 2012)

Josh Fox,  MRG:

 By Thursday morning we should have 3-5 inches to show for our efforts while snow continues for a good part of the day and even into Thursday evening and Thursday night. By Friday morning Snowfall totals should be in the 10-15 inch range.

* If I were to pick a day to ski, it would be Friday. *

Winds are not expected to be particularly strong Thursday but they will be out of the east and historically that has caused some issues on the Single. On Friday winds will diminish and the snow will diminish to a few flurries. I am sure both days will be winners no matter what is open and what isn't


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## WinnChill (Feb 29, 2012)

billski said:


> Josh Fox,  MRG:
> 
> By Thursday morning we should have 3-5 inches to show for our efforts while snow continues for a good part of the day and even into Thursday evening and Thursday night. By Friday morning Snowfall totals should be in the 10-15 inch range.
> 
> ...



I'm with him on the Friday thing.  Winds going against the grain than what we're used to, and summit winds could be strong Thurs AM--probably a little dicey.  

I'm also leery of ME resorts--I get nervous when high pressure to our north makes a low slide to our south.  I dropped amounts slightly for SR/SL/Black/Saddle and hope we hit those ranges.  I'll take another look at NNH areas later on too.


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## Tooth (Feb 29, 2012)

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnowFcst.png


        Better. Im up at Sugarloaf. Very pumped. Powder.


----------



## redwinger (Feb 29, 2012)

Will travel 2.5 hours from 01950.  Where should I be on Saturday?


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## Tooth (Feb 29, 2012)

redwinger said:


> Will travel 2.5 hours from 01950.  Where should I be on Saturday?



Sugarloaf. I just heard 15z Sref plume 1.68" qpf, 12.87" is the mean for snow. Maine is blowing up.


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## redwinger (Feb 29, 2012)

Tooth said:


> Sugarloaf. I just heard 15z Sref plume 1.68" qpf, 12.87" is the mean for snow. Maine is blowing up.



Sugarloaf is almost 4 hours one way.  Too tough.  I can make it to Sunday River in about 2.5...think that will cut it?


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## tipsdown (Feb 29, 2012)

Tooth said:


> Sugarloaf. I just heard 15z Sref plume 1.68" qpf, 12.87" is the mean for snow. Maine is blowing up.



Tooth, keep the good news coming...Stay on this one for me. I'm hoping to jump into Brackett...


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## Tooth (Feb 29, 2012)

redwinger said:


> Sugarloaf is almost 4 hours one way.  Too tough.  I can make it to Sunday River in about 2.5...think that will cut it?



Sunday River would be a great choice. They are going to get it good.


----------



## Tooth (Feb 29, 2012)

tipsdown said:


> Tooth, keep the good news coming...Stay on this one for me. I'm hoping to jump into Brackett...



http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2012022915/SREF_prob_dend_100__f030.gif

The dendrite growth model sets us up for amazing snow potential.


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## UVSHTSTRM (Feb 29, 2012)

I am pretty skeptical about the "two" storms (who wouldn't be the way this winter has gone).  Reasons for this is because the first storm which has arrived already looks like it is already to begin breaking up.  And from what I understood tonights snows from this first wave was suppose to have the most snow with it, with the second wave arriving after midnight and through thursday was suppose to be the weaker portion.  What am I not seeing with these two storms?


----------



## Tooth (Feb 29, 2012)

I am under the impression that part two is what will hit Maine. Two local Maine stations calling general 8" to 12" with some 14"' give or take. Still calling for long snow all night and all through tomorrow. Various numbers off models still look this way. This storm has jumped up and down 5 times in the last 36 hours. I hate it.


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## WinnChill (Feb 29, 2012)

UVSHTSTRM said:


> I am pretty skeptical about the "two" storms (who wouldn't be the way this winter has gone).  Reasons for this is because the first storm which has arrived already looks like it is already to begin breaking up.  And from what I understood tonights snows from this first wave was suppose to have the most snow with it, with the second wave arriving after midnight and through thursday was suppose to be the weaker portion.  What am I not seeing with these two storms?



It's a complex setup so it's understandable.  The first wave (this PM/eve) has more moisture but less dynamics and sliding through mostly S New England.  The 2nd wave--or the upper level low now over the Great Lakes, pulls through overnight/early Thurs with less moisture but more dynamics aloft and on a line through New England.  One of things that makes this 2nd feature interesting for tonight/Thurs is the interaction with high pressure to our north.  The pressure gradient sets up a nice onshore, E to SE flow helping to add to the moisture but mainly for areas from about SVT through NH and ME.  I have a slight worry that this upper level low--while strong now--will tend to be weakening as it moves through, not strengthening.  I hope I'm wrong but it just one of the things that could keep things in check.  I'm just worried the snow gradient may fall off a bit through Maine.  We'll see


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 29, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> * I have a slight worry that this upper level low--while strong now--will tend to be weakening as it moves through, not strengthening.*  I hope I'm wrong but it just one of the things that could keep things in check.  I'm just worried the snow gradient may fall off a bit through Maine.  We'll see



There is so dang much snow up north right now that I'd trade this snowfall not happening for the rain coming Friday through Saturday to not happen.  I'm worried that sucker could be a "condition killer" if 3/4 inch rain falls and then it gets cold again right away.


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## Tooth (Feb 29, 2012)

Winnchill,

Im hearing mean is still better than1 inch of qpf with good ratios gets 12+. Hope we get .75 of that. Looks strong.

What do you think?


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## WinnChill (Feb 29, 2012)

Tooth said:


> Winnchill,
> 
> Im hearing mean is still better than1 inch of qpf with good ratios gets 12+. Hope we get .75 of that. Looks strong.
> 
> What do you think?



Generally thinking .7 to about 1.0" QPF, maybe a bit more...those have been fairly steady past few days.  Yeah, snow ratios bouncing around 10'ish southern resorts, 10-15:1 for northern resorts.  So tough part is good moisture/lower ratios southern resorts, slightly less moisture/slightly higher ratios for northern resorts.  Fun to figure out.  

That first wave just gave us about 3" here in S NH!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 29, 2012)

Plattekill is reporting 6" to 8" so far as of 7:30pm.


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## Cornhead (Feb 29, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> Plattekill is reporting 6" to 8" so far as of 7:30pm.


Could it be? A Powder Daize, didn't think they'd have one this year.


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## billski (Feb 29, 2012)

NWS is inviting you to report snow depths for this storm.  It's not entirely rigorous, it's meant to be "fun".  For this crowd, we'd probably take it more serious than we should.

See this other thread for details
http://forums.alpinezone.com/showthread.php?p=697913#post697913


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## billski (Feb 29, 2012)

*Newbury NH*


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 29, 2012)

Cornhead said:


> Could it be? A Powder Daize, didn't think they'd have one this year.



They already posted that they're "saving" whatever falls for fresh tracks on Friday.  So someone could hit Hunter tomorrow and get fresh tracks again on Friday @ Platty.


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## Bene288 (Feb 29, 2012)

6" in Albany so far according to the snow on my tool box.


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## Wavewheeler (Feb 29, 2012)

I'm two miles from Gore Mountain right now. Hit snow right over the NY state line and it really started coming down around Albany. I-87 was nicely cleared/plowed. No problems driving up.

 6" on the ground now of fresh stuff.  

It's stopped right now as of 11 pm but it's supposed to pick up after midnight and snow right until tomorrow (Thursday) evening. They are expecting almost a foot total! 

75% of Gore is open. The combination of last weekend's snow and this one makes for the best conditions all year (I was told this by the hotel owner). Forecast for tomorrow looks great and very little winds predicted. One reason I decided not to head out to Killington was because of the fierce winds predicted there..on the order of 20-25 mph with 35 mph gusts! Ouch! :-o

I'd def try and get up here on Friday because that sounds like a great day but it's not looking TOO bad for Saturday. Some snow and rain mixed in it seems. Sunday looks better. Probably looking at spring like conditions because it's supposed to be warmer. 

I'm leaving Saturday morning in any case so I got my two days of Heaven ahead. Have fun wherever you are but CALL IN SICK TOMORROW and head out!


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## John W (Feb 29, 2012)

Wavewheller, I am going to drive up to gore tomorrow morning.  Leaving NYC around 4... Plan on being up there around wish..    Killington on friday.  If anyone is playing hookie these next 2 days get in touch on here.  I will wearing blue NF jacket, black helmet with a single Zermatt sticker.. I will be solo.... So I might not be too hard to find...  Killington on friday in the same outfit!!

John W


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## Cornhead (Mar 1, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> They already posted that they're "saving" whatever falls for fresh tracks on Friday.  So someone could hit Hunter tomorrow and get fresh tracks again on Friday @ Platty.



That'd be cool, if I wasn't in VT I'd consider doing this. I have Platty tix I bought for $18.75, I ski Hunter midweek for $29, so for under $50, I could have back to back powder days. I'd probably spend more than that to stay overnight somewhere Thursday night in order to accomplish this. Two powder days at two different hills for $47.75 would be outstanding.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 1, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> They already posted that they're "saving" whatever falls for fresh tracks on Friday.  So someone could hit Hunter tomorrow and get fresh tracks again on Friday @ Platty.



That is an awesome idea, are you going to Platty on friday, great place for powder runs for sure.  The whole place is open now http://www.plattekill.com/winter/trail-report-and-weather


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## WinnChill (Mar 1, 2012)

Saddleback reporting all lifts on wind hold. 

Surface winds in Maine are not bad right now but just a bit higher above 2000ft are strong out of the east/northeast.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 1, 2012)

39 cold raw rain here on LI, but as long as its dumping in the mtns, i'm good with it....


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## WinnChill (Mar 1, 2012)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> 39 cold raw rain here on LI, but as long as its dumping in the mtns, i'm good with it....



Nice muffin-tops on everything here in SNH--about 9" from last night and still falling.  Northernmost resorts are catching up today to what southern areas already picked up.


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## abc (Mar 1, 2012)

Scotty said:


> That is an awesome idea, are you going to Platty on friday, great place for powder runs for sure.


Friday is actually one of Platty's "$15 for first 100 skier" day!

Wonder how early one need to be there to get that $15 ticket? Anyone ever tried and know?


----------



## Judder (Mar 1, 2012)

*Watch the winds on Sat!*

Headed up to Sugarbush tonight. On the mountain tomorrow. Gotta get it while the gettins good. It's about to go from near epic to dogsh!t real quick.

For sat: On top of the rain, MASSIVE WINDS. No way lifts will be spinning.

From NOAA:

Saturday: Rain showers before 5pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. High near 42. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 55 to 60 mph becoming south 30 to 35 mph. Winds could gust as high as *90 mph*. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.


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## spring_mountain_high (Mar 1, 2012)

abc said:


> Friday is actually one of Platty's "$15 for first 100 skier" day!
> 
> Wonder how early one need to be there to get that $15 ticket? Anyone ever tried and know?



i got there right before opening and was #97, so get there early


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 1, 2012)

Scotty said:


> That is an awesome idea,* are you going to Platty on friday*, great place for powder runs for sure.



I was @ Platty on Sunday (great day), but I'm about as confused as to "where" I'll be skiing this weekend as I've ever been in my life.  

_Options I'm considering:_

1) Hunter Friday, and that's it

2) Drive to n.VT on Friday, skip Saturday due to 80% chance of rain and 30mph wind, and ski Sunday and Monday up there instead.


Frankly, I'd rather miss a day of power in the Cats to ski 2 days in northern Vermont, IF the skiing will still be solid in VT.

What makes it *SO confusing,* is that while I know VT has got a TON of snow lately, how will 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain on top of it, QUICKLY followed by plummeting temperatures effect conditions?  Will trails be ice and will the woods be scraped off and icy? Or is there just so much recent snow in northern VT that even if they get 1/2 inch of pure rain, will the skiing on Sunday and Monday still be great?

I'm not afraid to admit that I have serious analysis paralysis at the moment, amplified by the fact that this might be the "last best" opportunity to ski 2011/12 given the LT models are showing "ski death" temps.


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## billski (Mar 1, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> I w
> 
> What makes it *SO confusing,* is that while I know VT has got a TON of snow lately, how will 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain on top of it, QUICKLY followed by plummeting temperatures effect conditions?  Will trails be ice and will the woods be scraped off and icy? Or is there just so much recent snow in northern VT that even if they get 1/2 inch of pure rain, will the skiing on Sunday and Monday still be great?



If it plays out as you describe, my experience suggests mt. ops will let the water drain out, the freeze will produce a crusty surface, with lots of good stuff below, which the groomers will mash up into a nice consistency of snow and ice to make for something a bit better than FGR.
The woods, well, that will be another story. 
That's my opinion, and I'm sticking to it!


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## abc (Mar 1, 2012)

Does that mean sleep in Sunday morning? Or get there as usual to enjoy the freshly groomed?


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## billski (Mar 1, 2012)

abc said:


> Does that mean sleep in Sunday morning? Or get there as usual to enjoy the freshly groomed?


  That's up to you.  I don't thing you can decide until you wake in.  Better not to sleep in and have regrets.  This could be our last big hurrah before spring skiing.


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## billski (Mar 1, 2012)

Snow-rain line in eastern Mass has been sitting at the Andover-Billerica line for a couple hours now.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 1, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> I was @ Platty on Sunday (great day), but I'm about as confused as to "where" I'll be skiing this weekend as I've ever been in my life.
> 
> _Options I'm considering:_
> 
> ...


Platty will hold the powder longer then Hunter on Friday, but you know that, I would just see what happens because the weather is so if but half inch of rain I think will dent the North VT hills but I think the base will be okay,( but I have not been to North VT this season


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## billski (Mar 1, 2012)

Sweet pow at Coles Pond, NEK







stoked yet?


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## Warp Daddy (Mar 1, 2012)

Just Plowed about 6 inches of champagne and still coming down steady here along the St Lawrence ! Gotta go wax the Queens skis and mine we're outta here first thing in the am . I can ONLY imagine what is happening on the mtn right now . they had 6 in overnite and more today 

Tomorrow s gonna be saweeeeet


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## Glenn (Mar 1, 2012)

Saturday's outlook is a realy pissah. I'm not happy about that at all. Especially since I can't get out until Sunday. Ugh! Sunday may be a reverse half day. If the winds are bad...may not bother.


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## o3jeff (Mar 1, 2012)

Glenn said:


> Saturday's outlook is a realy pissah. I'm not happy about that at all. Especially since I can't get out until Sunday. Ugh! Sunday may be a reverse half day. If the winds are bad...may not bother.



Where are you skiing?


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## billski (Mar 1, 2012)




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## psyflyer (Mar 1, 2012)

6 inches plus so.far at burke.  Pretty nice riding with very light POW and no lines.  Top to bottom POW runs with more stashed in the woods from wind drifts.  Good fun.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 1, 2012)

Glenn said:


> Saturday's outlook is a realy pissah. I'm not happy about that at all. *Especially since I can't get out until Sunday. Ugh! Sunday may be a reverse half day. If the winds are bad...may not bother.*



Saturday's winds in some places are now forecast to be over 100mph*.  uke:

If Sunday's winds are bad, I'm certainly not going to Vermont, but I dont think wind will be a problem on Sunday.  Of course, now it also makes one wonder what 80mph winds on Saturday are going to do to the conditions for Sunday and Monday. 

 Oh noez, even more analysis paralysis!!!!!



For Jay Peak:


> Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 75 to 80 mph decreasing to between 35 and 40 mph. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 1, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> Saturday's winds in some places are now forecast to be over 100mph*.  uke:
> 
> If Sunday's winds are bad, I'm certainly not going to Vermont, but I dont think wind will be a problem on Sunday.  Of course, now it also makes one wonder what 80mph winds on Saturday are going to do to the conditions for Sunday and Monday.
> 
> ...


http://www.liftopia.com/resort_detail.php?ResortId=54&StartDate=2012-03-02&NumberOfDays=1 you cant beat that deal $12 dollar for friday at Platty and you get powder and their chairs are still go up when others can not


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## billski (Mar 1, 2012)

I propose we send a keg of <Insert your favorite brew here> to each metorologist who blasphemes Ullr, perhaps the forecast will be adjusted appropriately.:smash:


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## billski (Mar 1, 2012)

It is puking big time in Andover Mass.  And not a hill in sight.  Hitting the road in 55 mins.


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## tipsdown (Mar 1, 2012)

It's hovering around single digits at Saddleback with 8-9 inches already on the ground and it's low density blower.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 1, 2012)

Scotty said:


> you cant beat that deal $12 dollar for friday at Platty



That is an absolutely badazz deal, AND it will be all powder since the mountain is closed today.  Most likely 8" to 11".  A no-brainer if you're NY/NJ and can ski tomorrow.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 1, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> That is an absolutely badazz deal, AND it will be all powder since the mountain is closed today.  Most likely 8" to 11".  A no-brainer if you're NY/NJ and can ski tomorrow.



Just saw on FB over a foot of powder at Platty I hope some Alpine members get the good stuff, I need to see pictures of it please/


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## Tooth (Mar 1, 2012)

People skied down the access road today. Why, I do know. We did get some good snow amounts today.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.ne...06756879_61554966878_9398340_1314512941_n.jpg

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10150566258351879&set=pu.61554966878&type=1&theater


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## Wavewheeler (Mar 1, 2012)

Awesome conditions today at Gore. Snowed all day. Lots of powder and fun! There has to be almost a foot total.  They are saying they are 100% open now. If you like glades now is the time! They are primed and ready to go. Tomorrow should be a great combination of groomers, bumps, glades, powder...you name it. I would think it holds true everywhere up here in the Daks, Green and White Mountains, Catskills ,etc.

Saturday..well..let's just say I'm glad I'm heading home.  With the temps they are calling for I don't know where you can go to avoid the rain. They are even calling for T-storms! 

I skied in similar conditions at Killington a few years back. Had a decent day before and then it rained all day, then very windy then got cold overnight and we got a little snow, which saved it somewhat. My daughter and I went skiing but it was "challenging". There was an icy crust on the slopes and they tried to break it up resulting in lots of icy bits and pieces. We got thru it but it wasn't easy. My daughter wasn't used to skiing on that kind of hard ice and complained constantly. 

Try and ski something/somewhere tomorrow because anywhere you go will be better than this weekend. Gore is calling tomorrow "best day of the season" on their website.  I'm eating breakfast at the Lodge and want to be there when the lifts and gondola opens. 

Good luck wherever you are. Maybe they will be wrong on Saturday. One can only hope. Damn shame because it's so nice now. :sad:


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## Tooth (Mar 1, 2012)

All Maine TV mets calling for almost all snow in the mountains with sleet for a bit then ending in snow again. Luck. Calling 4+ inches. South of Route 2 will see more of a mix to nfp late. Just watched 10pm newscast WGME. wabi and wcsh reported same earlier.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 1, 2012)

Scotty said:


> *Just saw on FB over a foot of powder at Platty* I hope some Alpine members get the good stuff



My analysis paralysis led to the insane combination of BOTH options above # 1 and #2.

1) I'm going to ski tomorrow at Plattekill

2) Apres-Platty look for someplace safe to ditch my vehicle along I-87 (Walmart parking lot or something?) between Newburgh and Kingston

3) Wait for my girlfriend to arrive from central NJ after work, probably around 7pm.

4) Continue on to Vermont that night, do something other than skiing Saturday, and ski Sunday and Monday

A bit ridiculous, but in the immortal words of Warren Miller, _“If you don't do it this year you'll be another year older when you do",_ and as tomorrow may be the last truly special day of 2012, it would be literally true.


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## Wavewheeler (Mar 1, 2012)

If only Maine wasn't so far from NJ. I'd love to get up there. Takes the good part of a day to drive up (and then back). 

Have fun for those of you who can take advantage. For those of us down in the metro NY/NJ area here it looks like spring is happening soon. Actually I think it's been here for awhile. I'm hoping winter will carry on more in New England/upstate NY. I'd hate to think that this will be it for skiing for me. :sad:

Ah well..on to hiking, kayaking and camping out...There's always something.


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## WinnChill (Mar 2, 2012)

Forecasts are updated.  I gotta take my son out for some of this snow!  See ya!


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## St. Bear (Mar 2, 2012)

Wavewheeler said:


> If only Maine wasn't so far from NJ. I'd love to get up there. Takes the good part of a day to drive up (and then back).
> 
> Have fun for those of you who can take advantage. For those of us down in the metro NY/NJ area here it looks like spring is happening soon. Actually I think it's been here for awhile. I'm hoping winter will carry on more in New England/upstate NY. I'd hate to think that this will be it for skiing for me. :sad:
> 
> Ah well..on to hiking, kayaking and camping out...There's always something.



As much as I complain, I really am lucky that my parents let me use their house in NH as a base camp to go skiing.  Just about every major New England mountain is within 3 hours (except Sugarloaf and Saddleback).

I'm driving up there tonight after work, then waking up early to go to Sunday River to ski in the rain.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 2, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> My analysis paralysis led to the insane combination of BOTH options above # 1 and #2.
> O
> 1) I'm going to ski tomorrow at Plattekill
> 
> ...



I'm glad your at Platty today I bet you have powder untouched runs into afternoon, I can't wait for trip report, say hi to older cashier she's part why i love platty.


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## Tooth (Mar 2, 2012)

Sugarloaf today. Brackett Basin. 16". 4 coming tonight.

http://farm8.static.flickr.com/7060/6946634021_16bf639514_b.jpg


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## ScottySkis (Mar 2, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> My analysis paralysis led to the insane combination of BOTH options above # 1 and #2.
> 
> 1) I'm going to ski tomorrow at Plattekill
> 
> ...


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 2, 2012)

^Beers going down at Platty now, great day .  The NAM, just to make things interesting is colder giving us some hope, but you'd have top go way north I think (Jay) even if that verifies.  Thoughts of any of our weather wonks?


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## WinnChill (Mar 2, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> ^Beers going down at Platty now, great day .  The NAM, just to make things interesting is colder giving us some hope, but you'd have top go way north I think (Jay) even if that verifies.  Thoughts of any of our weather wonks?



I didn't sleep well last night so I'm too tired for apres beers now after a short day at Pats.  But a quick look at the models looks like the mixing still possible even for northern areas but the dry slot works in as the changeover occurs helping to minimie ice/NCP impact.   I addressed Jay's situation on our Facebook page.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 2, 2012)

^Cool, didn't know you had a fb page, I will have to add that.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 3, 2012)

Snowing with sleet mixing in at midnite at Pico


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 3, 2012)

Snowing here in St. Albans and 35.  

That bodes really well for JP if it holds. Similar latitude, but zero elevation and yet it's cold and snowing.

Arrived and going to bed. 8 hours total driving today and a full day of skiing right back onto the lifts at Platty. Zonked!


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 3, 2012)

Winds cranking and all sleet now...and its comin diwn hard


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## Masskier (Mar 3, 2012)

Windy, snowing and 25 at Burke  1:45 am


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## steamboat1 (Mar 3, 2012)

All I have to say is what a great week. A couple of inches of fresh Tues. morning & considerably more Thurs. Thurs was the powder day not Fri.


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