# Perfect Storm possibly brewing...



## Tin (Oct 22, 2012)

Stumbled upon this on Reddit... 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/future-sandy-east-coast-tropic/546066


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## WinnChill (Oct 22, 2012)

We've been keeping an eye on it too.  I mentioned to my wife this morning that next week could be very interesting.  We'll see.


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## 4aprice (Oct 22, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> We've been keeping an eye on it too.  I mentioned to my wife this morning that next week could be very interesting.  We'll see.



WinnChill:  How much cold air is behind it if any?  Quite the set up if it were all to come together.  If we were to stay colder
 afterwards could be quite a launch to the ski season.  I heard some predictions of a realitively cold November and would love to see a good quick start to the season.  Been a while since we had a good pre-christmas.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Puck it (Oct 22, 2012)

I just want to make some turns after I missed out last weekend. The FJ is all ready to go with the equipment in the back. It would be nice to have a repeat of '05 to try the new planks in.


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## ScottySkis (Oct 22, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> We've been keeping an eye on it too.  I mentioned to my wife this morning that next week could be very interesting.  We'll see.





Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2
Are you thinking just Vermont or maybe the Catskills to?


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## WinnChill (Oct 22, 2012)

By "interesting", I mean from a general weather perspective and not so much from a powder perspective.  Tropical systems are warm-core systems, and with the core of cold air still holding back through Canada and Northern Plains, this would be a rain event.  We could have an open door for this to pull into the coast but determining the track of these tropical systems this far out is futile. 

As for the start to the season (November), our chief forecaster's outlook is for slightly below average temps and slightly below average precip for the northeast, as the cold starts to drain in from the northwest.  However, adding a tropical system like the potential that we may have next week could delay that slightly.  I recall a presentation mentioning that the atmosphere can retain some of the warmth from a tropical system.  Just something to consider, but we'll keep watching this one closely.


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 22, 2012)

I was going to say I cant see this being a snow event being a "tropical" storm.


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## drjeff (Oct 23, 2012)

Jamaica, Cuba, The Bahamas and Bermuda will have far more to worry about from Sandy than the East Coast.  1 Model yesterday had Sandy tracking up the Eastern seaboard about a week from now, and this got picked up on.  The other dozen or so models had Sandy heading in the general direction of Bermuda once she exits the Bahamas.

The reality is that just like many a computer modeled "perfect storm"/"storm of the century" etc, 1 or 2 outlying model runs about 8 to 10 days out won't have any resemblence 99.9% of the time to what we actually see happen.  The only real concern I'd see for most of the East Coast right now would be for those folks going boating in the Atlantic and/or to the beaches up and down the East Coast for some wind, high surf and rip currents


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## 4aprice (Oct 23, 2012)

drjeff said:


> Jamaica, Cuba, The Bahamas and Bermuda will have far more to worry about from Sandy than the East Coast.  1 Model yesterday had Sandy tracking up the Eastern seaboard about a week from now, and this got picked up on.  The other dozen or so models had Sandy heading in the general direction of Bermuda once she exits the Bahamas.
> 
> The reality is that just like many a computer modeled "perfect storm"/"storm of the century" etc, 1 or 2 outlying model runs about 8 to 10 days out won't have any resemblence 99.9% of the time to what we actually see happen.  The only real concern I'd see for most of the East Coast right now would be for those folks going boating in the Atlantic and/or to the beaches up and down the East Coast for some wind, high surf and rip currents



I agree with you in many aspects Dr Jeff, but I was reading a post from a pretty respected met on Americanwx and he said that sometimes when a model (and in this case several models) pick up on a big storm like this so far out (we are talking 6 to 10 days) the odds are greater that it could happen as opposed to the flip flopping regular model runs of a more benighen(sp?) pattern.  BTW he was talking about the set up with out tropical interaction (ie Sandy out sea) .  The 93 superstorm was one that was picked up on the models relatively early.  Should be an interesting time to follow the models and see what happens.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Nick (Oct 23, 2012)

More this morning was posted ... http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/22/tropical-storm-sandy-2012_n_2003499.html



> possibly spawning a very rare and powerful hybrid storm, slamming into the Boston-to-Washington corridor early next week, with rain, *snow*, damaging winds, and potential storm surge flooding.



Emphasis on SNOW


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## WinnChill (Oct 23, 2012)

4aprice said:


> I agree with you in many aspects Dr Jeff, but I was reading a post from a pretty respected met on Americanwx and he said that sometimes when a model (and in this case several models) pick up on a big storm like this so far out (we are talking 6 to 10 days) the odds are greater that it could happen as opposed to the flip flopping regular model runs of a more benighen(sp?) pattern.  BTW he was talking about the set up with out tropical interaction (ie Sandy out sea) .  The 93 superstorm was one that was picked up on the models relatively early.  Should be an interesting time to follow the models and see what happens.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Plus, we'll be watching for the exiting jet streak out (part of the downstream upper level ridge) over eastern Canada even for an out-to-sea tropical system.  Even when models show this jet energy exiting, part of it can actually "capture" the tropical system and sometimes retrograde pulling it back into us.  I recall a presentation by a great Boston NWS forecaster, Dave Vallee, showing how the exiting jet energy drawing back a bit, even as most models had this continuing northeastward.  I have to dig out my notes from that but it's just one thing to consider.  Like Dr. Jeff mentioned (good to see you again by the way!), most Sandy tracks are out-to-sea right now.  

It's good to have something like this occupy us until the snow flies..."Occupy White Stuff"!  ;-)


-WC


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## JimG. (Oct 23, 2012)

I hope this thing blows offshore and misses us.

Sorry, but after the Halloween storm last season and the subsequent poor winter, I have no desire to see any natural snow before November this year. Bad mojo in my book.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Oct 23, 2012)

some surf will be showing for sure...


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## Nick (Oct 23, 2012)

JimG. said:


> I hope this thing blows offshore and misses us.
> 
> Sorry, but after the Halloween storm last season and the subsequent poor winter, I have no desire to see any natural snow before November this year. Bad mojo in my book.



I didn't even get the Oct snow last year, I was in south carolina!!


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## hammer (Oct 23, 2012)

JimG. said:


> I hope this thing blows offshore and misses us.
> 
> Sorry, but after the Halloween storm last season and the subsequent poor winter, I have no desire to see any natural snow before November this year. Bad mojo in my book.


+1


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## Cannonball (Oct 23, 2012)

Puck it said:


> I just want to make some turns after I missed out last weekend. The FJ is all ready to go with the equipment in the back. It would be nice to have a repeat of '05 to try the new planks in.



Yeah mine are all ready to go to.  Oh wait....that's because I'm still procrastinating on putting them away for the summer.


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## Zand (Oct 23, 2012)

IDK why you guys are even mentioning snow here. It's a tropical system and sure it'll pull some cold air on the backside (maybe some snow way out in Ohio or West Virginia or something), but here in New England, we would absolutely get the tropical effect if it hit. Right now the EURO has the storm hitting eastern Long Island as about a 940 mb low (bombing out as it hits because it will be extratropical, not a decaying hurricane like Irene), and then sitting and spinning over southern New England/New York. If this scenario holds (obviously it's still 7 days out, so a LOT can happen), the flooding and storm surge would be absolutely catastrophic for the south coast of New England, Long Island, and even inland (more rain than Irene most likely). 

As for the other models, some have it out to sea while others agree with the Euro (hell, one just came out as hitting southern Jersey). While the storm track is obviously not something that's anywhere near confident this far out, there's no doubt that we're within the realm of time when the models start agreeing on the general patterns that will be steering the storm this upcoming weekend. We will have a strong low moving through the Great Lakes, causing a trough to dig very deep over the east (subsiquently pulling the storm in off the ocean if it goes slow enough). Also, a VERY strong block will be in place over Greenland. If this was midwinter, we'd all have pants tents over this setup. The devastating part is the chance of the block being so strong, this could take days to move itself along and there is a LOT of potential energy available at these latitudes due to the trough that will be in place. There's no scarier time for these storms to happen than mid-fall when the patterns are how they are. Look no further than the Perfect Storm. 

Again, this is still a week out and theres as much of a chance that it will miss as it will hit, but everyone should be paying attention to the developments of this (ESPECIALLY if you are on the coasts of southern NE, Long Island, or the NYC/Jersey shore area). If it verifies as the EURO has been showing for almost 10 consecutive runs now, this would be the storm of the generation.


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## thetrailboss (Oct 23, 2012)

Looks interesting......


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## thetrailboss (Oct 23, 2012)

And WCAX just put this graphic up from one of their model runs.  Yeah, this does not look good:


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## ScottySkis (Oct 23, 2012)

thetrailboss said:


> And WCAX just put this graphic up from one of their model runs.  Yeah, this does not look good:





Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2

So my dads cruise from Brooklyn to the Caribbean leaving on Halloween might get effected by this storm?


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## thetrailboss (Oct 23, 2012)

Scotty said:


> Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2
> 
> So my dads cruise from Brooklyn to the Caribbean leaving on Halloween might get effected by this storm?




Yeah I'd say so...right in that bullseye there....


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## rev bubba (Oct 23, 2012)

*He can expect high seas*

At the very least, the seas will be "interesting" even if the storm heads out into the Atlantic. If it does turn inland, his cruise might be postponed.

My wife and I cruised around and through Hurrican Ivan about six or so years ago and at one point we had 40 ft seas. Since we were returning to NYC from the Caribbean there really was not much choice other than put into port and run up the cost to the cruise line which was not an option they wanted to take.

As we approached the storm we were able to body surf in the pool as the ship (Norwegian Dawn) rose over the waves and back down because the water would move to the back of the pool on the way up and rush down in a wave as the ship settled. Lots of fun until people started washing out and they closed the pool.

Needless to say, most of the passengers, including my wife, didn't make it to dinner.uke:

To tell you the truth, it was one of our more memorable cruises.


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## drjeff (Oct 24, 2012)

Zand said:


> IDK why you guys are even mentioning snow here. It's a tropical system and sure it'll pull some cold air on the backside (maybe some snow way out in Ohio or West Virginia or something), but here in New England, we would absolutely get the tropical effect if it hit. Right now the EURO has the storm hitting eastern Long Island as about a 940 mb low (bombing out as it hits because it will be extratropical, not a decaying hurricane like Irene), and then sitting and spinning over southern New England/New York. If this scenario holds (obviously it's still 7 days out, so a LOT can happen), the flooding and storm surge would be absolutely catastrophic for the south coast of New England, Long Island, and even inland (more rain than Irene most likely).
> 
> As for the other models, some have it out to sea while others agree with the Euro (hell, one just came out as hitting southern Jersey). While the storm track is obviously not something that's anywhere near confident this far out, there's no doubt that we're within the realm of time when the models start agreeing on the general patterns that will be steering the storm this upcoming weekend. We will have a strong low moving through the Great Lakes, causing a trough to dig very deep over the east (subsiquently pulling the storm in off the ocean if it goes slow enough). Also, a VERY strong block will be in place over Greenland. If this was midwinter, we'd all have pants tents over this setup. The devastating part is the chance of the block being so strong, this could take days to move itself along and there is a LOT of potential energy available at these latitudes due to the trough that will be in place. There's no scarier time for these storms to happen than mid-fall when the patterns are how they are. Look no further than the Perfect Storm.
> 
> Again, this is still a week out and theres as much of a chance that it will miss as it will hit, but everyone should be paying attention to the developments of this (ESPECIALLY if you are on the coasts of southern NE, Long Island, or the NYC/Jersey shore area). If it verifies as the EURO has been showing for almost 10 consecutive runs now, this would be the storm of the generation.



Very well put. There's about 10 warm components to this potential storm for every cold component.  Plus, given the fact that right now, even the "cold" air that's up to the North isn't very "cold" snow, especially for New England *if* things were to come together with Sandy, would be an incredible longshot - much different situation than last years "Halloweeen" snowstorm.

Last years Halloween snowstorm was almost the perfect scenario to maximize the available "cold" air and then have it remain inplace for the duration of the precipitation for most of the Northeast.  *If* Sandy makes an appearance in New Enlgand, based on forcast models, the way that she'd likely arrive (almost backing in from the East) would favor bringing in plenty of "warm" air, at all levels of the atmosphere.

Everyone looking for snow, needs to remember that the majority of the water off New England now where Sandy *might* go is still in the mid 50's, and further out where the Gulfstream passes, about 70 - as that potential "fuel" might be taken up by Sandy, it's going to do plenty of warming to the atmosphere, not a goood thing when the air over Eastern Canada is generally in the 30's + 40's now.

What Sandy could very well do, is be one of the typical few "major" weather events in the fall that almost in essence help transition the atmosphere out of a warmer weather pattern into a colder weather pattern, also helping to cool the ocean surface temps by "stirring up" the water column and bringing colder, deeper waters up towards the surface, which will help for subsequent storms.  Right now any weather event that helps get rid of all the stored heat that summer brought is a good thing for future snow events


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## 4aprice (Oct 24, 2012)

There's a traffic jam in the N Atl.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## Puck it (Oct 24, 2012)

Can't I just hope!  Why must you all throw stones in my pond?


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## from_the_NEK (Oct 24, 2012)

Yikes!


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## thetrailboss (Oct 24, 2012)

from_the_NEK said:


> Yikes!



Yeah, that's not good for anyone.....


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## Abubob (Oct 24, 2012)

This is looking more and more like a perfect disaster. I don't see snow in this. Just a lot of wind and a lot of rain. I hope the models are wrong and it gets swept out to sea but with the NOA deciding to go negative it could suck a heavy duty hurricane straight into New England. NOT LIKIN' IT.


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## millerm277 (Oct 24, 2012)

EURO Model @ 120hrs is also quite scary....Irene Pt 2?


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## thetrailboss (Oct 24, 2012)

millerm277 said:


> EURO Model @ 120hrs is also quite scary....Irene Pt 2?



  Holy s^**!


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## ScottySkis (Oct 24, 2012)

thetrailboss said:


> Holy s^**!





Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2
Halloween will be a wet one.


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## WinnChill (Oct 24, 2012)

millerm277 said:


> EURO Model @ 120hrs is also quite scary....Irene Pt 2?



Part of what made Irene so bad was the interaction with a frontal boundary through central/northern New England--that enhanced rainfall in areas leading to flooding. Sandy may have a similar effect with a frontal system approaching from the west (the system that helps capture Sandy).  As of now, that setup would focus heaviest rainfall through NY/PA along that frontal boundary.  After being away from the computer through midday, I breezed through some models and they're starting to converge a bit more on some sort of land effect/just offshore system.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Oct 24, 2012)

keeping an eye on it...might have to make a trip to harbor freight for a generator....


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## drjeff (Oct 24, 2012)

thetrailboss said:


> Holy s^**!



There was a similar model run that came out this afternoon, that had the estimated central eye pressure at about 930mb with Sandy basically at the Mouth of Chesapeake Bay - 930mb is a pressure usually associated with a Cat 3/4 hurricane  

One thing to remember, especially with the NAM models and this hurricane season.  Their model runs 5+ days out have seemed to have a bit of a westward bias built into them.  This could be a situation where that Westward bias ends up being the difference between New England getting hit with the equivalent of a really bad Nor'easter vs. taking a direct hit from a Hurricane with far more punch than Irene brought with her  

Nothing is certain, but if the models keep trending towards a similar solution over the next 48hrs,  might not be a bad idea, especially if you live in Southern/Eastern New England to fill up a few extra tanks of gas if you have a generator, and get some basic supplies on hand.  Today's model runs have been a bit eye opening


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## Boston Bulldog (Oct 24, 2012)

That is one angry looking hurricane


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 24, 2012)

I pray NE does not get the flooding they had last year. Being almost Nov that would be some serious bad news.


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## billski (Oct 25, 2012)

I see a consensus building.  Don't you?


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 25, 2012)

Hoping that it heads into canada and we get the south side of this thing....


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## Warp Daddy (Oct 25, 2012)

nasty stuff sure hope it turns away , we do NOT need another disaster . Irene damn near wiped out certain areas that are not able to withstand yet ANOTHER hit to both personal and infrastructure properties.


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## hammer (Oct 25, 2012)

billski said:


> I see a consensus building.  Don't you?


Yes...and I don't like it...


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## Nick (Oct 25, 2012)

billski said:


> I see a consensus building.  Don't you?View attachment 6757



Someone posted that on Facebook this morning with the comment, 

"Forecasters have narrowed down the track to somewhere between Toronto and Europe". I thought that was pretty funny,


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## Cornhead (Oct 25, 2012)

We've been flooded twice in the last five years, hope this isn't thrice in six. Time to move out West? Maybe there is something to Global Warming. I've lived in the same town all my life, hadn't flooded in 45 years till 2006. I pray it heads out to sea.


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 25, 2012)

Cornhead said:


> We've been flooded twice in the last five years, hope this isn't thrice in six. Time to move out West? Maybe there is something to Global Warming. I've lived in the same town all my life, hadn't flooded in 45 years till 2006. I pray it heads out to sea.


Does not look like it its going out to sea. The bigger question is do we get the north side or the south side of the storm. North side is going to be nasty.


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## drjeff (Oct 25, 2012)

What is also concerning about Sandy and what her effects could be if and when she comes ashore and then as she breaks down overland, is how long that breakdown process takes.  The same factors that could very well serve to draw Sandy into land, might very well keep her over a smallish area of land for a few days before what's left of her gets swept back out to sea and on towards Europe eventually.

Based on current models, it's not that far fetched to see Sandy and her remnents take a solid 72 hours or so to go from say landfall to somewhere in Western NY and then back out off the Eastern Seaboard   While the winds will fairly quickly diminish once she makes landfall, this could be a very long rain duration event,  and that's not a good thing!

For many reasons, the best thing that the Eastern seaboard can hope for now, if the building consensus about the track continues, is that for the front coming in from the West, that will interact and help steer Sandy, to be much stronger than the models think and push her East as quickly as possible


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## SnowRock (Oct 25, 2012)

7 years in recorded history of 19 named storms... but 3rd year in a row. Coincidence?

This one has me nervous. After Irene I worry people won't heed warnings. I also live in NJ in the woods with lots of trees on/around my property. With the amount of rain and wind potential always a scary thought. 

From our coasts to our mountains, this wouldn't be good for anyone... lets all hope this thing stays east. The model consensus is starting to look no bueno though.


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## millerm277 (Oct 25, 2012)

Latest NHC update to the projected track isn't making me happy, looks like it's aimed right at NJ: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/144711.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Looks like I may be going out to fill gas cans and stock up this weekend. Next 1-2 days should be interesting.


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## ScottySkis (Oct 25, 2012)

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So were talking worse flooding In Tribeca NYc were my job is then last year, guess we will be taking all merchandise from bottom selves and putting higher up, last year's hurricane didn't flood were I work but came close, also does not help that we work in a basement.


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## Nick (Oct 25, 2012)

Sick -- 

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-205_162-57539840/huge-combo-storm-may-pummel-east-coast-next-week/



> "It'll be a rough couple days from Hatteras up to Cape Cod," said forecaster Jim Cisco of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration prediction center in College Park, Md. "We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting."It is likely to hit during a full moon, when tides are near their highest, increasing coastal flooding potential, NOAA forecasts warn. And with some trees still leafy and the potential for snow, power outages could last to Election Day, some meteorologists fear. They say it has all the earmarks of a billion-dollar storm.


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## from_the_NEK (Oct 25, 2012)

Recent GFS run has landfall in RI and pumping LARGE amounts of moisture (and wind) into New England.


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## WinnChill (Oct 25, 2012)

The latest Euro phases earlier and hooks into Mid-Atlantic.  Complete storm prep chaos this weekend.


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## Puck it (Oct 25, 2012)

How does that saying go again, just in case?


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## 4aprice (Oct 25, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> The latest Euro phases earlier and hooks into Mid-Atlantic.  Complete storm prep chaos this weekend.



Hooks it into the Deleware Bay.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## drjeff (Oct 25, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> The latest Euro phases earlier and hooks into Mid-Atlantic. Complete storm prep chaos this weekend.



Yup!  The HUGE wildcard is when will Sandy transition from a warm core tropical system to a cold core system.  To say that what *could* happen if things play out as the models suggest are somewhat "uncharted territory" from a meterological standpoint is an understatment!


I know that if it all comes together, and I happen to loose power,  that I'll be buring through plenty of gas for the generator, and a cr@pload beyond the monthly alloted bandwidth usage on my wireless card for my laptop "watching" what happens as Sandy goes through her landfall and subsequent degredation.

Even though it's just 1 of many models,  the 12z ECMFW from earlier today below, really had far more wind issues for the Great Lakes area than New England as Sandy makes the transition from Warm to Cold and Phases in with the system from the West.






If Sandy acts something like that, it would still put some significant 40-50mph winds over New England, but that's far better than the 70-80mph winds over Michigan and Ohio.

I think that it's safe to say that over this weekend, even the majority of "weather geeks" and storm lovers will be hoping that more and more models will keep showing estimates of "least bad situation" over their house.  There's some major potential for some major flooding and wind damage happening over a large area by this time next week


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## ctenidae (Oct 25, 2012)

I'm pretty excited, since just last month we moved from a house that was the highest natural piece of land at about 12 feet above mean high tide to a house that is about 3 feet above mean high tide. Timing will be almost as important to me on this as the actual path. With an astronomic high tide sustained winds out of teh east cramming an excess of water up Long Island Sound might be, well, interesting.


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## Edd (Oct 25, 2012)

I've just arrived at the Atlanta airport. I had a front row seat to the hurricane in Jamaica. We were supposed to leave on Wednesday but the airport in Montego Bay was completely shut down. 

The natives were nervous because they said a hurricane had not hit Jamaica dead on in seven years (wouldn't have guessed that). 

It turned out ok for the island. All I saw was a lot of wind and not much rain. Hopefully other areas follow suit.


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## ctenidae (Oct 25, 2012)

My new favorite website:

http://spaghettimodels.com/


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## ScottySkis (Oct 26, 2012)

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Mayor Bloomberg is talking about storm on on AM radio.


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## WinnChill (Oct 26, 2012)

As he should be.  Latest trend hooks it towards NJ/NYC or so....could see the NHC adjust possible landfall a bit farther north than previous track.  :-o


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## Nick (Oct 26, 2012)

Oh yeah ? I was watching the news and while here in MA everyone is freaking out (my wife just went water / canned food shopping) it looks like we are mostly going to get heavy rain and it will be much worse down in the DE / MD / NY area.


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## billski (Oct 26, 2012)

What kind of disasters hit the Rockies?  It might be time to cash out and move on.  The ski season is longer too.


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 26, 2012)

I hate how people hype these things though, just tell me it's a potentially awful storm.  These two quotes were just on CNN.
_
"This is a storm of biblical proportions" _- Accuweather
_
"I've never seen anything like this in my entire meteorological life" _- Some NOAA guy


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## ScottySkis (Oct 26, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> As he should be.  Latest trend hooks it towards NJ/NYC or so....could see the NHC adjust possible landfall a bit farther north than previous track.  :-o





Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2
So living in Mid Hudson Valley 65 miles North of NYC and taking my bus trip in on Monday will not be fun.


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## JimG. (Oct 26, 2012)

Scotty said:


> So living in Mid Hudson Valley 65 miles North of NYC and taking my bus trip in on Monday will not be fun.



You might consider taking a personal day.


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## JimG. (Oct 26, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> I hate how people hype these things though, just tell me it's a potentially awful storm.  These two quotes were just on CNN.
> _
> "This is a storm of biblical proportions" _- Accuweather
> _
> "I've never seen anything like this in my entire meteorological life" _- Some NOAA guy



+1


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## ScottySkis (Oct 26, 2012)

JimG. said:


> You might consider taking a personal day.


I am my boss will not be nice about it.


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## JimG. (Oct 26, 2012)

Scotty said:


> I am my boss will not be nice about it.



Ask him for a ride to work.


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## ScottySkis (Oct 26, 2012)

JimG. said:


> Ask him for a ride to work.





Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2

That is funny is commute is walking downstairs from his home to the office.


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## Huck_It_Baby (Oct 27, 2012)

billski said:


> What kind of disasters hit the Rockies?  It might be time to cash out and move on.  The ski season is longer too.



Wildfires, drought, twisters/torandos, landslides and of course.....Avalanches! =)


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## JimG. (Oct 27, 2012)

Scotty said:


> Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2
> 
> That is funny is commute is walking downstairs from his home to the office.



LOL

Oh well.


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## thetrailboss (Oct 27, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> I hate how people hype these things though, just tell me it's a potentially awful storm.  These two quotes were just on CNN.
> _
> "This is a storm of biblical proportions" _- Accuweather
> _
> "I've never seen anything like this in my entire meteorological life" _- Some NOAA guy



+ 1.  And the NOAA guy was probably the 20 year old intern....


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## riverc0il (Oct 27, 2012)

thetrailboss said:


> + 1.  And the NOAA guy was probably the 20 year old intern....


All the weather guys I follow are in agreement that nothing like this has happened any time in recent memory...


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 27, 2012)

It's not a good sign that all the models seem to be in decent agreement.


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## ScottySkis (Oct 27, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> It's not a good sign that all the models seem to be in decent agreement.




Not looking good for NYC? 
Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2


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## mlctvt (Oct 27, 2012)

Scotty said:


> Not looking good for NYC?



The weather forum is saying it's a worse case for NYC. The storm is trening north another 100 miles and there's discussion about the National Weahter Service and why they haven't moved the cone north, most agree that they will later today. 

I live in CT and the storm surge estimates for wester LI Sound are huge , in the 14-15 FEET range!
This type of surge has never happened. Most storms that cause substantial damage weren't even 1/2 this high. 
The western track of the storm will drive immense amounts of water into LI Sound and it will have nowhere to go. Monday to Wednesday also is the high moon tide, not good timing for this storm. 
There will probably be large mandatory evacuations.


----------



## rev bubba (Oct 27, 2012)

*Interesting about northern draft*

We have a condo 100 meters off the ocean and the further north Sandy hits, the less chance of damaging storm surge on our island. I checked the surf reports and Barnegat Beach Island and Long Beach Island still are showing 12 to 16 foot surf on Tuesday. So far, this is the biggest forecast for the Jersey coast. Worse case for us is landfall around the mouth of Delaware Bay to our south.


----------



## rev bubba (Oct 27, 2012)

*Interesting about northern drift*

We have a condo 100 meters off the ocean and the further north Sandy hits, the less chance of damaging storm surge on our island. I checked the surf reports and Barnegat Beach Island and Long Beach Island still are showing 12 to 16 foot surf on Tuesday. So far, this is the biggest forecast for the Jersey coast. Worse case for us is landfall around the mouth of Delaware Bay to our south.


----------



## ScottySkis (Oct 27, 2012)

http://mta.info/ NYC mass transit and Metro North and buses already looks like they will be starting to cut service at 7pm Sunday, so no public mass system then know way I can get to work, if their is a still a job after this storm only time will tell. Another link to MTA face book page for NY people.https://www.facebook.com/pages/MTA-New-York-City-Transit/232635164606


----------



## hammer (Oct 27, 2012)

rev bubba said:


> We have a condo 100 meters off the ocean and the further north Sandy hits, the less chance of damaging storm surge on our island. I checked the surf reports and Barnegat Beach Island and Long Beach Island still are showing 12 to 16 foot surf on Tuesday. So far, this is the biggest forecast for the Jersey coast. Worse case for us is landfall around the mouth of Delaware Bay to our south.


Wow, wonder if the bay will meet the ocean on LBI...


----------



## rev bubba (Oct 27, 2012)

Hope not. Especially hope not on Barnegat Beach Island to the north. The storm does seem to be tracking further north making Long Island more of a target. I am not happy about this at all. Irene was quite enough!


----------



## billski (Oct 27, 2012)




----------



## thetrailboss (Oct 28, 2012)

riverc0il said:


> All the weather guys I follow are in agreement that nothing like this has happened any time in recent memory...



1991 isn't recent I guess?


----------



## millerm277 (Oct 28, 2012)

thetrailboss said:


> 1991 isn't recent I guess?



The "Perfect Storm" never actually made landfall. (besides in maritime Canada).

This one is slamming directly INTO NJ/NYC.


----------



## billski (Oct 28, 2012)

thetrailboss said:


> 1991 isn't recent I guess?


Not when you've only been in the business for ten years!


----------



## billski (Oct 28, 2012)

hammer said:


> Wow, wonder if the bay will meet the ocean on LBI...



Wow.  Part of NJ washed to sea?  We haven't seen such biblical proportions in my dog's entire lifetime!  :-D


----------



## riverc0il (Oct 28, 2012)

thetrailboss said:


> 1991 isn't recent I guess?


Not really, no. Many of my favorite weather guys were probably just getting out of college in 1991, half a career ago. And as millerm277 puts it...



millerm277 said:


> The "Perfect Storm" never actually made landfall. (besides in maritime Canada).
> 
> This one is slamming directly INTO NJ/NYC.


The two storms are really not comparable. I have heard reference that this could be the worst storm for the east coast since 1938. We'll see what happens.


----------



## WinnChill (Oct 28, 2012)

riverc0il said:


> The two storms are really not comparable. I have heard reference that this could be the worst storm for the east coast since 1938. We'll see what happens.



Playing catch up today after being away from the computer all day yesterday.  Yeah, the Perfect Storm was well offshore but the interaction was similar.  '38' was a very, very fast moving storm--50mph storm motion fast as opposed to 10mph for Sandy.  Irene, while not as strong, had similar flooding complications.  Sandy could be comparable to a storm in 1927 that had significant downstream blocking and interaction  with a cold front along the Appalachians.


----------



## thetrailboss (Oct 28, 2012)

riverc0il said:


> Not really, no. Many of my favorite weather guys were probably just getting out of college in 1991, half a career ago. And as millerm277 puts it...
> 
> 
> The two storms are really not comparable. I have heard reference that this could be the worst storm for the east coast since 1938. We'll see what happens.





WinnChill said:


> Playing catch up today after being away from the computer all day yesterday.  Yeah, the Perfect Storm was well offshore but the interaction was similar.  '38' was a very, very fast moving storm--50mph storm motion fast as opposed to 10mph for Sandy.  Irene, while not as strong, had similar flooding complications.  Sandy could be comparable to a storm in 1927 that had significant downstream blocking and interaction  with a cold front along the Appalachians.



i was going to say we heard the same thing about Irene being compared to 1938.  And yeah I was saying the low pressure interactions are what make this like the 1991 Perfect Storm...hence the thread title.....


----------



## ScottySkis (Oct 28, 2012)

Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2

It's official, as of 7 pm today all MTA trains, buses and Metro North and LIRR are coming to a stop, from Governor of NY.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 28, 2012)

Here's a 9 second clip of our NJ/NY forecast for the next few days

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktAKHww9wPo&feature=player_embedded


----------



## ctenidae (Oct 28, 2012)

I'm happy with the 8pm forecast update. We went from forecasting 6 feet of the Sound in my living room to salt water just killing the yard.


----------



## Cornhead (Oct 28, 2012)

According to the local news, no major flooding is expected in our area, the southern tier of NY. Thank God, I hope they're right. The majority of the rain should be to our South, PA and NJ. They did say power outages are probable. As long as no trees fall on the house, or vehicles, we should be okay. It wouldn't break my heart if we lose power at work. :wink: 

To those of you more directly in the path of Sandy, be safe. My Sister lives in Manhattan, should be quite a show for her there. Battery Park will be under water. If the subways flood, that would be a big thing. Anyone who gets flooded by this storm, I feel your pain, it isn't fun. Even less so this time of year, it will be cold after this passes.


----------



## riverc0il (Oct 28, 2012)

Here in central NH, they already cancelled classes tomorrow at the University. Not trying to downplay this at all, but I was surprised that classes were already cancelled. It shouldn't be half as bad as Irene was around here based on the forecasts that I have seen.


----------



## ScottySkis (Oct 28, 2012)

Cornhead said:


> According to the local news, no major flooding is expected in our area, the southern tier of NY. Thank God, I hope they're right. The majority of the rain should be to our South, PA and NJ. They did say power outages are probable. As long as no trees fall on the house, or vehicles, we should be okay. It wouldn't break my heart if we lose power at work. :wink:
> 
> To those of you more directly in the path of Sandy, be safe. My Sister lives in Manhattan, should be quite a show for her there. Battery Park will be under water. If the subways flood, that would be a big thing. Anyone who gets flooded by this storm, I feel your pain, it isn't fun. Even less so this time of year, it will be cold after this passes.


My job said no work tomorrow in Tribeca just a few blocks south of Canal st, hope were not flooded in our basement.


Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 28, 2012)

The Jersey Shore is already taking on water over land and this storm isnt anywhere near hear yet, and I read the 15 mile buoy outside NY Harbor is already recording 13 foot seas. Ponder that.


----------



## Cornhead (Oct 28, 2012)

This is the "perfect storm", even the full moon is conspiring to make things worse. A preview of December 21st? Maybe I should plan my ski vacations early.:wink: 

Get out there and get ya some WROD this year, just in case the Mayans were right.


----------



## deadheadskier (Oct 28, 2012)

riverc0il said:


> Here in central NH, they already cancelled classes tomorrow at the University. Not trying to downplay this at all, but I was surprised that classes were already cancelled. It shouldn't be half as bad as Irene was around here based on the forecasts that I have seen.



Seems a bit premature.  Sounds to me that the only real issues tomorrow in New England are going to be tidal floods during high tides.  I would think the worst of the inland weather won't happen until Wednesday based on the current models.


----------



## Tin (Oct 29, 2012)

deadheadskier said:


> Seems a bit premature.  Sounds to me that the only real issues tomorrow in New England are going to be tidal floods during high tides.  I would think the worst of the inland weather won't happen until Wednesday based on the current models.



Last year with Irene all RI got was a few inches of rain and 48 hours of 35-45mph wins and we were without power for 8 days. Can't wait to see what this one does with its' winds. And just because no one else has yet....


----------



## from_the_NEK (Oct 29, 2012)

Forecasting 30-40 mph winds with gusts to 70 here in the NEK starting late the afternoon and through the night. The wind is supposed to come out out of the East which is a weird direction. Most trees haven't been tested much by wind from that direction so there will likely be a lot that go down. 
Got the flashlights, water, generator, and gas axe ready to go.


----------



## Nick (Oct 29, 2012)

It said only 2 - 3" of rain here, which is quite a bit but not totally astronomical. So far it's pretty windy outside but I still have power and even my DISH TV is working. We'll see how things play out as the day progresses, I guess.


----------



## Cornhead (Oct 29, 2012)

Thinking of starting a pool at work as to when we lose power. Good point about the wind direction and the trees, makes sense.


----------



## Nick (Oct 29, 2012)

I was thinking this morning, even though the winds are higher than Irene; without leaves on the trees, isn't there less surface area to cause tree damage?


----------



## billski (Oct 29, 2012)

Dah shoruh, New Joisey


----------



## hammer (Oct 29, 2012)

Just talked with my sister in NJ and she said they are comparing it to the storm of '62...if it lives up to that hype than they are in for some serious trouble down there.


----------



## riverc0il (Oct 29, 2012)

riverc0il said:


> Here in central NH, they already cancelled classes tomorrow at the University. Not trying to downplay this at all, but I was surprised that classes were already cancelled. It shouldn't be half as bad as Irene was around here based on the forecasts that I have seen.


As of 10am this morning, not raining in Plymouth, ground is wet from on and off spirts, wind is noticeable but not yet at stormy levels. Can't believe I am not at work right now. Obviously, it will get worse for us later and folks along the coast are feeling it pretty good right now. Major over reaction around here for Monday. We'll see what tonight and tomorrow bring.


----------



## AngryHugo (Oct 29, 2012)

Both the rain and wind are really picking up here in Philly.  The latest report said we're going to get up to 10" of rain.


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## WinnChill (Oct 29, 2012)

Matt Noyes just reported that Sandy has the lowest recorded pressure of a storm north of North Carolina!


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## deadheadskier (Oct 29, 2012)

riverc0il said:


> As of 10am this morning, not raining in Plymouth, ground is wet from on and off spirts, wind is noticeable but not yet at stormy levels. Can't believe I am not at work right now. Obviously, it will get worse for us later and folks along the coast are feeling it pretty good right now. Major over reaction around here for Monday. We'll see what tonight and tomorrow bring.



Coast of New Jersey sure.  Certainly not the coastal areas of NH.  We maybe have 25mph gusts.  The thing isn't supposed to make landfall in New Jersey until mid-afternoon.  That's 400 miles away from here.  Definitely a MAJOR over reaction for Monday for this neck of the woods.


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## Boston Bulldog (Oct 29, 2012)

Canada has spoken


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## WinnChill (Oct 29, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Matt Noyes just reported that Sandy has the lowest recorded pressure of a storm north of North Carolina!



Corrections:  Technically lowest "measured" north of NC....storm of 38 reanalysis was a bit lower......but you get the picture.


----------



## Huck_It_Baby (Oct 29, 2012)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Canada has spoken



I needed this. Thank you.


----------



## abc (Oct 29, 2012)

Nick said:


> I was thinking this morning, even though the winds are higher than Irene; without leaves on the trees, isn't there less surface area to cause tree damage?


True. 

But unfortunately for where I am, the leaves are still on the trees right now! So we'll have the full force of the wind and potential damage to look forward to.


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## 〽❄❅ (Oct 29, 2012)

Nick said:


> I was thinking this morning, even though the winds are higher than Irene; without leaves on the trees, isn't there less surface area to cause tree damage?


No, the leaves act as a buffer, trees without leaves are more susceptible to falling


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## rev bubba (Oct 29, 2012)

Huh? Trees with leaves have a built in sail and are much more susceptible to the wind.


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## ScottySkis (Oct 29, 2012)

Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2
My coworkers in NYC already lost electricity and hot water.


----------



## 〽❄❅ (Oct 29, 2012)

rev bubba said:


> Huh?


Yes thats what i heard on NBC 10 news five minutes before posting. 




rev bubba said:


> Trees with leaves have a built in sail and are much more susceptible to the wind.


..."built in sail", and the source of your info?


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## Zand (Oct 29, 2012)

There will be much more damage to areas with leaves still on the trees.


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## rev bubba (Oct 29, 2012)

Source of info? ABC, Weather Channel, common knowledge. NBC got it wrong. End of story. There's a surprise, the taking heads gave you incorrect information.


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 29, 2012)

Winds on LI are already blowing pretty good and the LOW tide is already bad. Things will be crazy around here at 8pm..


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 29, 2012)

〽❄❅;731874 said:
			
		

> Yes* thats what i heard on NBC 10 news* five minutes before posting.
> 
> 
> ..."built in sail", and the source of your info?



Dont believe everything you here on the news.


----------



## Nick (Oct 29, 2012)

rev bubba said:


> Huh? Trees with leaves have a built in sail and are much more susceptible to the wind.



That's what I figured; that the leaves would provide more for the wind to pull / push on. That's why I took down my yard flag :lol:


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## skiNEwhere (Oct 29, 2012)

skiNEwhere said:


> Personally when I go skiing, I could care less if it's at a ski AREA or ski RESORT.





BenedictGomez said:


> You've both managed to trigger one of my most anal pet peeves in the exact same thread!





BenedictGomez said:


> Dont believe everything you here on the news.



You mean "hear" :razz:


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## skiNEwhere (Oct 29, 2012)

[/URL][/IMG]

Hurricane isn't stopping the guards at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, that's some dedication!


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## Nick (Oct 29, 2012)

skiNEwhere said:


> [/URL][/IMG]
> 
> Hurricane isn't stopping the guards at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, that's some dedication!



Great pic, thanks for sharing that.... so symbolic


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## steamboat1 (Oct 29, 2012)

Great shot. Thanks for sharing.


----------



## ScottySkis (Oct 29, 2012)

Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2

Crane in NYC on a new building looks horrendous hope the street is cleared quickly and safely.


----------



## JimG. (Oct 29, 2012)

Every cloud has a silver lining, and I'm looking real hard to find one here.

Fortunately, most of my leaves are already down. The ones that aren't (maybe 5%) will be after tomorrow. I'm noticing with this increasing NE wind my leaves are being blown through my property right into the stream behind my house. The top of my property is almost clean. Now, assuming this wind doesn't shift around too much and the stream doesn't rise up and flood my property and return the leaves to my yard, I won't have much leaf removal left!

I'm grasping at straws here guys.


----------



## abc (Oct 29, 2012)

Scotty said:


> Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2
> 
> Crane in NYC on a new building looks horrendous hope the street is cleared quickly and safely.


No injury reported, fortunately.

But it shows the power of the wind.



JimG. said:


> Every cloud has a silver lining, and I'm looking real hard to find one here.
> 
> Fortunately, most of my leaves are already down. The ones that aren't (maybe 5%) will be after tomorrow.


I'm actually hoping the wind quickly strip the leaves off the trees round me, so that would reduce the chance of branches breaking and taking down power lines with them!

And I also hope any branches near power lines already broken from last October's Frankenstorm so there aren't too many to hurt the lines. 

Basically, my main worry is prolong power outage so that's what I'm staring out the window at. For people on the coast, they have a lot more to worry about. Fingers crossed, for all


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 29, 2012)

JimG. said:


> Every cloud has a silver lining, and I'm looking real hard to find one here.
> 
> Fortunately, most of my leaves are already down. The ones that aren't (maybe 5%) will be after tomorrow. I'm noticing with this increasing NE wind my leaves are being blown through my property right into the stream behind my house. The top of my property is almost clean. Now, assuming this wind doesn't shift around too much and the stream doesn't rise up and flood my property and return the leaves to my yard, I won't have much leaf removal left!
> 
> I'm grasping at straws here guys.



I read somewhere that this storm will stir everything up and cause winter to get here faster...More straws for ya!


----------



## ScottySkis (Oct 29, 2012)

Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2

In heart of Orange County NY lights have been going off and on for a while, dogs hate this weather.


----------



## ALLSKIING (Oct 29, 2012)

Just lost power....Time to fire up the Generator!


----------



## steamboat1 (Oct 29, 2012)

Things just got worse!


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## Nick (Oct 29, 2012)

Still have power, had two blips but only 3 - 4 really strong gusts ...


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## skiNEwhere (Oct 29, 2012)

Good thing the interwebs is still working!


----------



## skiNEwhere (Oct 29, 2012)

steamboat1 said:


> Things just got worse!
> 
> View attachment 6775



lol that is too funny


----------



## WWF-VT (Oct 29, 2012)

I just took my dog for a walk, lots of branches down and debris.  One big old maple tree just up the road snapped and took out a neighbors car.


----------



## skiNEwhere (Oct 29, 2012)

Where's the trampoline?






[/URL][/IMG]


----------



## 〽❄❅ (Oct 29, 2012)

ALLSKIING said:


> I read somewhere that this storm will stir everything up and cause winter to get here faster...More straws for ya!


...i hope it wasn't written by our nbc10 newscaster, lol.


----------



## JimG. (Oct 29, 2012)

abc said:


> Basically, my main worry is prolong power outage so that's what I'm staring out the window at. For people on the coast, they have a lot more to worry about. Fingers crossed, for all



I'm in Dutchess County. Gusts are getting up there now. I live on a trout stream, so that's my main concern. It has never come close to threatening the house, but you never know.


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 29, 2012)

Winds are starting to get crazy strong on LI....Trees down all over.... They say it going to get worse....Great


----------



## Huck_It_Baby (Oct 29, 2012)

130 Mph on Mt. Washington according to FB. 

I bet it get even faster up there soon!


----------



## 4aprice (Oct 29, 2012)

Looks like land fall is/was down in Cape May County, Ocean City area.  The heavy rain appears to be to the southwest of the center so looks like NNJ getting off easy.  Gov Christie on TV reaming some Atlantic City official who did not evacuate and is now cut off from the main land.  Oops. Leaves gone here but pics of S Jersey and LI show alot of foliage still there.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## thetrailboss (Oct 29, 2012)

4aprice said:


> Looks like land fall is/was down in Cape May County, Ocean City area. The heavy rain appears to be to the southwest of the center so looks like NNJ getting off easy. Gov Christie on TV reaming some Atlantic City official who did not evacuate and is now cut off from the main land. Oops. Leaves gone here but pics of S Jersey and LI show alot of foliage still there.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Someone playing politics with a storm during an election year?  No way!


----------



## ScottySkis (Oct 29, 2012)

thetrailboss said:


> Someone playing politics with a storm during an election year?  No way!





Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2
He not up for election this year.


----------



## thetrailboss (Oct 29, 2012)

Scotty said:


> Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2
> He not up for election this year.



How about said mayor?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 29, 2012)

thetrailboss said:


> How about said mayor?



Doubtful it was politically motivated, Christie reams pre-schoolers out if they screw up.  Personally I find it refreshing.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 29, 2012)

*"HURRICANE SANDY'S DEVASTATION IMMINENT"*

Seriously, Weather .com?   

Could you POSSIBLY go with a more hysterical, exaggerated, panic-indusing headline?

How about, *"HURRICANE SANDY WILL KILL EVERYONE IN ITS' PATH"*? 

 I think that would be about all they could run with that would be worse.


----------



## core2 (Oct 29, 2012)

Caught this live on DC news this morning.  HURRICANE HORSE!


----------



## Huck_It_Baby (Oct 29, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> *"HURRICANE SANDY'S DEVASTATION IMMINENT"*
> 
> Seriously, Weather .com?
> 
> ...



Seriously I get so annoyed with this crap.


----------



## millerm277 (Oct 29, 2012)

BenedictGomez said:


> *"HURRICANE SANDY'S DEVASTATION IMMINENT"*
> 
> Seriously, Weather .com?
> 
> ...




Uh, that's pretty much the case though. Go take a look at the footage from any of the NJ coast today, there's buildings washing away.

Lower Manhattan is currently flooding, and is almost certainly going to get into the subways....which is likely to take months to rebuild the entire subway system in Lower Manhattan.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 29, 2012)

Here's what a NJ meteorologist I follow on Twitter who is following that situation just said about Christie and the AC mayor.  

Assuming this Mets story pans out, certainly sounds like Christie was in the right.



> Governor  Chris Christie of New Jersey gave an update on his state which is  dealing with landfalling Hurricane Sandy at this hour. *Christie blasted  Atlantic City Mayor Lorenzo Langford for putting his people in harm's  way. Despite the Governor's order to evacuate all barrier islands  including Atlantic City, Langford instead told his people to stay in the  city and head to shelters dangerously close to  water. Currently, one such shelter is flooding and it is too dangerous  to send rescue crews out to rescue those stuck there.
> 
> *Because of  Lanford's inaction and what Christie calls "lack of leadership", the  people in his city may die. What are your thoughts on this situation?
> 
> Christie hopes to be able to send federal search/rescue crews into the  city as soon as possible in the morning when the worst of the storm  moves on. The number of people stuck and potentially drowning in the  shelters is unknown.


----------



## Nick (Oct 29, 2012)

core2 said:


> Caught this live on DC news this morning.  HURRICANE HORSE!
> 
> View attachment 6778



That's awesome, and PS I'm glad you joined the forum for this post. It was worth it


----------



## steamboat1 (Oct 29, 2012)

I hope you guys are safe & secure in your little inland homes. Let me just tell you down here in NYC near the water this is some serious shit & it's not getting any  better.  Neighborhoods are flooding, just when you think the winds couldn't get any stronger they are. High tide is still not for another 1/2 hour (approx. 9pm).

This is looking from across the street at Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn from the old Lundy's restaurant. As you can see it's still daylight when this shot was taken. High tide is hours off.


----------



## ERJ-145CA (Oct 29, 2012)

millerm277 said:


> Uh, that's pretty much the case though. Go take a look at the footage from any of the NJ coast today, there's buildings washing away.
> 
> Lower Manhattan is currently flooding, and is almost certainly going to get into the subways....which is likely to take months to rebuild the entire subway system in Lower Manhattan.



Here's my favorite barrier island - LBI NJ






Makes me sad.

I'm at work in Memphis but worried about my family in Jersey (10 minutes from Mountain Creek).  Power is out but I already resigned myself to losing all the stuff in the fridge and freezer.  I'll be happy as long as no trees fall on the house.


----------



## ScottySkis (Oct 29, 2012)

steamboat1 said:


> I hope you guys are safe & secure in your little inland homes. Let me just tell you down here in NYC near the water this is some serious shit & it's not getting any  better.  Neighborhoods are flooding, just when you think the winds couldn't get any stronger they are. High tide is still not for another 1/2 hour (approx. 9pm).
> 
> This is looking from across the street at Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn from the old Lundy's restaurant. As you can see it's still daylight when this shot was taken. High tide is hours off.
> 
> View attachment 6779



Who said subway trains will be down for months?

Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2


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## 〽❄❅ (Oct 29, 2012)

WTF, we're getting ripped off, West Virginia is getting 1', 2', 3' of snow from this!


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## drjeff (Oct 29, 2012)

Scary stuff from reports going on in NYC right now.  Still rising water in Western Long Island Sound heading towards NYC too   My wife's business partner and her husband at at their beach house in Waterford, CT - water is almost at their back door which is about 10 feet above usual high tide levels and the wind is apparently just shifting to a more of an onshore direction keeping the water in the Sound   

I'm feeling very fortunate that all I've had at my house today is a few flickers of the power


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 29, 2012)

Hoboken PATH getting seriously messed up






This looks like an end-of-world scene from a Hollywood movie.


----------



## ALLSKIING (Oct 29, 2012)

My fence is all blown out a bunch of trees are down and they took out lines connected to my house...Thats what I can see in the dark Im sure there is more...Thank god for the generator hard wired into the house.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 29, 2012)

This one is so amazing I would have thought it was Photoshopped if I didn't know what's going on. 

 This shot is taken southbound on the FDR drive on the LES.


----------



## ScottySkis (Oct 29, 2012)

Hope NYC people are okay?

Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 29, 2012)

I used to live 3 blocks from here.  Very thankful I do not anymore.


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## Nick (Oct 29, 2012)

steamboat1 said:


> I hope you guys are safe & secure in your little inland homes. Let me just tell you down here in NYC near the water this is some serious shit & it's not getting any  better.  Neighborhoods are flooding, just when you think the winds couldn't get any stronger they are. High tide is still not for another 1/2 hour (approx. 9pm).
> 
> This is looking from across the street at Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn from the old Lundy's restaurant. As you can see it's still daylight when this shot was taken. High tide is hours off.
> 
> View attachment 6779



Wow ... be careful out there!! 

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk 2


----------



## steamboat1 (Oct 30, 2012)

drjeff said:


> Scary stuff from reports going on in NYC right now.  Still rising water in Western Long Island Sound heading towards NYC too   My wife's business partner and her husband at at their beach house in Waterford, CT - water is almost at their back door which is about 10 feet above usual high tide levels and the wind is apparently just shifting to a more of an onshore direction keeping the water in the Sound
> 
> I'm feeling very fortunate that all I've had at my house today is a few flickers of the power


I think you got that backwards. The south shore beaches of NYC,Long Island & New Jersey are getting pounded, not the western sound. Not saying they're not feeling effects from the storm but they're not receiving the brunt end of it.

I've been very fortunate so far, one block to the north, east, west & south of me got flooded but my block & the block next to me haven't. Only a couple of flickers in electric power, I did lose one pole coming into the house for about a minute knocking out 1/2 the house,meanwhile all around me people are without power. It hasn't been the rain, it actually rained very little today considering this is a hurricane. The ocean has come up to levels never before seen in my life. And my area is in Zone B, Zone A is the most low lying areas prone to flooding & had a mandatory evacuation issued yesterday.


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## Cornhead (Oct 30, 2012)

The storm was a dud here in the Southern Tier of NY, not that I'm complaining, thought for sure we'd get flooded yet again a couple days ago. I didn't even hear the wind last night, very little rain. If you had no idea the "super storm" was on it's way, you'd have thought nothing of it. My buddy in PA, about ten miles away, lost his power. I thought for sure mine would be out when I awoke, it wasn't. My Sister lives in Manhattan, East Village, I was texting her last night. I stopped when she lost power so she could conserve her phones battery. I haven't spoken with her yet today, I don't know if her apartment complex was actually flooded, it is close to the East River.


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## ScottySkis (Oct 30, 2012)

Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2
My jobs basement in NYC is completed flooded, that is were all the merchandise is kept, are building is just a few blocks south if Canal st.


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## skiNEwhere (Oct 30, 2012)

I think it's safe to say Halloween is cancelled, there's gonna be a lot of bummed out kids


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## Cornhead (Oct 30, 2012)

I spoke too soon, that buddy who lost his power said an 8yr old boy was killed just down the road from him, struck in the head by a falling branch.


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## Warp Daddy (Oct 30, 2012)

We dodged a bullet up here along the St Lawrence last nite . Less than a tenth of an inch of rain but winds gusting at 50 mph and sustained in the hi 30's . We did not even get a flicker in power and no reported outages in our immediate vicinity . It's 68 and sunny , just finished vacuuming the leaves .


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## 4aprice (Oct 30, 2012)

We dodged the bullet this time in NNJ.  Got the wind (65+) but not much rain, no loss of power, unlike Irene and last Oct snowstorm.  My mom had a small treedown  in her drive, gone with the handy dandy chainsaw.  

Down at the shore it's a different story.  Talked to our dear friends who live on a canal in Toms River.  They had electric but were surrounded by water.  Their 35 footer was safe but across Barnaget Bay from them the Casino Pier in Seaside collapsed into the sea.  My BIL owns an interest in Ocean City, we know nothing yet as there is no access to the barrier island.  This one might have changed the coast a little we shall see.


Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## riverc0il (Oct 30, 2012)

Fairly week storm where I live. We've seen much worse from non-named storms. 

Bummer about all the destruction in the NYC/NJ/CT coastline areas.


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## Nick (Oct 30, 2012)

Check out this set of pics 

https://crunched.com/access/b81f16b788d5f745eabf10908b2abe55


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 30, 2012)

My area of LI got rocked pretty good...But not by water by wind...Heavy wind! 94 mph were recorded in my area...Tons of trees just gone!


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## riverc0il (Oct 30, 2012)

Wow, we are getting pummeled right now with rain and wind. Crazy! I gotta take the dog out at some point... 

The video news reports of the damage is unreal. This has to be the most expensive disaster ever.

Thankfully not too many deaths reported so far. Granted every death is unfortunate but it seems like people got enough warning to get out of harms way for the most part.


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## Bene288 (Oct 30, 2012)

I have an uncle in Ocean Grove, NJ right next to Asbury Park. He had lost his gutters and some shingles but didn't flood as of 10 pm last night. He's pretty far from the boardwalk and about 20' above the lake. I haven't heard from him today, I imagine his phone died. Looks like down the shore in Belmar got it really bad. I'm hoping to get down there within the next few days.


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## thetrailboss (Oct 30, 2012)

riverc0il said:


> Wow, we are getting pummeled right now with rain and wind. Crazy! I gotta take the dog out at some point...
> 
> The video news reports of the damage is unreal. This has to be the most expensive disaster ever.
> 
> Thankfully not too many deaths reported so far. Granted every death is unfortunate but it seems like people got enough warning to get out of harms way for the most part.



FWIW I heard on NPR that they figure Katrina was much more expensive but that could change given the flooding I've seen in NYC.


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## ScottySkis (Oct 31, 2012)

thetrailboss said:


> FWIW I heard on NPR that they figure Katrina was much more expensive but that could change given the flooding I've seen in NYC.





Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2
I hope my boss has hurricane insurance, pictures I'm seeing of are basement is so horrible, I see for my self in the morning. I hope I still have a job next week.


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## 4aprice (Oct 31, 2012)

Channel 11 just took us on a helicoter ride down the shoreline from Matalookin to Seaside.  Seaside is a mess with both piers partially eaten by the sea.  The chairlift towers were still there but I only saw one of the terminals.  There was a cut from the ocean to the bay by the Matalookin bridge.  Hard to stomach having just been there a couple of months ago.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## ctenidae (Oct 31, 2012)

We came out okay, only 2 feet of the Sound in the first floor. Mud is the worst part.

Others in our neighborhood didn't fare as well. Waves crashed through some people's houses, whole first floors washed into the street. No loss of life. Buildings can be replaced.


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## BLESS (Oct 31, 2012)

we got slammed pretty bad here in Lil Rhody too....http://www.flickr.com//photos/ridotnews/sets/72157631891636224/show/


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## deadheadskier (Oct 31, 2012)

All and all minimal damage in NH around us.  Not that I was expecting too much being ten miles in land and obviously hundreds of miles from the storms center.

Yet, still no power since 7PM Monday night.  Not surprised.  PSNH sucks.  Two people can fart in the same direction in our town and the power goes out for a couple of days.


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## ScottySkis (Oct 31, 2012)

Sent from my ADR6410LVW using Tapatalk 2

75% percent of are stuff at work being thrown out, huge fu ken mess !!!!


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## Cornhead (Oct 31, 2012)

My Sister lives in the East Village, Stuyvesant Town, she finally texted me today. She was walking North to see if she had to work. There is no cell service at her apartment. The Con Ed plant that exploded is right down the road from her. She said it is bizarre, above 39th everything is normal, below, disaster area.


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## JimG. (Oct 31, 2012)

We got very little rain...my trout stream never even ran fast.

But the wind was crazy, and I'm wind sheltered in the woods. But I lost one tree...in a forest of 50-100 foot tall trees, the wind blew down a 9 foot tall hemlock. And the wind removed every leaf from my lawn, and all my leaves were down. It looked like someone had cleaned my yard yesterday morning.

I've been out of power since Monday 11pm. It sucks, but I feel very lucky.


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## ScottySkis (Oct 31, 2012)

All the buses were full going from my job in Tribeca so I walked from just below Canal St to Port Authority, nice 1.5 hour walk. MTA has major problems people in the city upset with them and with Con Ed. When I got to the 30s street wise that is were the power was on. Tomorrow will more fun of throwing out all the rest of the garbage that used to be merchdise for X-mas season. We through out literary 100,000 s of stuff, hope insurance covers this, sorry for the rant, I'm tired and wet and don't want to think about what was in the water.


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## 〽❄❅ (Oct 31, 2012)

Philly burbs ~19118, got off easy. I lost power for 12 hours from ~ 10:15pm to 10:15am yesterday morning, glad it was during sleep time. I had a downed crabapple tree but i'm happy about that too. It was half dead, saved me the trouble of cutting it down. Plus it dropped away from the house over a 8' cliff into the woods, out of sight out of mind. 
Did a trek thru the park on Forbidden Drive yesterday. Not much damage just the expected downed trees on the path which already had sections cut out of the way. Kudos to Friends of the Wissahickon volunteers!


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## from_the_NEK (Nov 1, 2012)

Ummm, the Euro and GFS are hinting at another storm next Thursday that kind of looks like the same tropical/cold front convergence that enhanced Sandy.  This one skirts New England on the snowy side


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## WinnChill (Nov 1, 2012)

from_the_NEK said:


> Ummm, the Euro and GFS are hinting at another storm next Thursday that kind of looks like the same tropical/cold front convergence that enhanced Sandy.  This one skirts New England on the snowy side



Yep.  Next week could be interesting too.  We haven't started up our full-scale discussions/forecasts for the Northeast just yet, but did post a brief update on things for our VT/NH/ME resort pages.


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## Nick (Nov 1, 2012)

WinnChill said:


> Yep.  Next week could be interesting too.  We haven't started up our full-scale discussions/forecasts for the Northeast just yet, but did post a brief update on things for our VT/NH/ME resort pages.



I'm not seeing anything on the link (with Chrome). It shows up for a brief second ("Vermont Listings") and then the content on the page just vanishes, leaving just the white content box


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## WinnChill (Nov 1, 2012)

Nick said:


> I'm not seeing anything on the link (with Chrome). It shows up for a brief second ("Vermont Listings") and then the content on the page just vanishes, leaving just the white content box



Thanks for the heads up Nick.  I'm not sure why that's happening.  Here's a link to an individual resort--is this any better?  By the way, a newer version of the site is already in the works and should be released soon.


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## wa-loaf (Nov 1, 2012)

This 50 foot pine just missed crushing my garage!


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## JimG. (Nov 2, 2012)

wa-loaf said:


> This 50 foot pine just missed crushing my garage!
> 
> View attachment 6794



Sucks to lose a beautiful tree like that. I have 2 of the same size right next to my shed. Those 2 pines and my 2 mature sycamore trees, both over 100 feet tall, are my favorites on the property.


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## ScottySkis (Nov 19, 2012)

http://m.youtube.com/watch?index=1&...FdCpuN8CMEg0VuEBqA&index=1&feature=plpp_video a dog that saved people.


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