# Mar 5/6



## SKIQUATTRO (Feb 28, 2011)

looks like Sat might be ok, but some NCP/snow for Sunday.....i know its a bit early in the week and lots of things can change, but i'm prayin' for good weather (anything but ice or ncp) heading up to Bromley for the weekend....(annual family trip for my bday)


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## 4aprice (Feb 28, 2011)

Happy Birthday.  I was thinking about heading up that way too so I'll be looking to see if you have any weather updates through the week.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## roark (Feb 28, 2011)

hoping to head north for the wife's bday... hope to see temps drop just a bit!


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## SKIQUATTRO (Feb 28, 2011)

WinnChill...where are ya on this one??


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## abc (Mar 1, 2011)

I too, am trying to decide about the weekend. It might be a wash-out? Or not...


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## drjeff (Mar 1, 2011)

Right now, this thing looks like it will have 2 things to watch for.  #1, early in the weekend as "phase 1" of this storm comes through, that's when as of now the temps look the most questionable and also when things will be the most moisture starved.  As the weekend goes on, it looks like "phase 2" will have both more cold air and more moisture with which to work with.

Lots of stuff to figure out, but this very well could end up being one of the classical later season events for ski country where the dividing line between all frozen and some mix/liquid sets up somewhere between the Mass Pike and the MA/VT/NH border


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## billski (Mar 1, 2011)

drjeff said:


> could end up being one of the classical later season events for ski country w



Late season?  What late season?  I'm still in the middle of it and lovin' it!  Yahoo! the blackout dates are dead!


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## Black Phantom (Mar 1, 2011)

billski said:


> Late season?  What late season?  I'm still in the middle of it and lovin' it!  Yahoo! the blackout dates are dead!



Will we be seeing you for 'late season' turns? :beer:


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## WinnChill (Mar 1, 2011)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> WinnChill...where are ya on this one??



Sorry guys...haven't been on a computer for a few days on a busy family trip.  Returning home today with updates resuming tomorrow (Wed).  

I'm sure DrJeff has been helping out just fine.  

:beer:
WC


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## billski (Mar 1, 2011)

Black Phantom said:


> Will we be seeing you for 'late season' turns? :beer:



Seeing?  Where are you thinking.  I'm still a snow-chaser at heart. and, i gotta knock off a few little hills up north soon.


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## Black Phantom (Mar 1, 2011)

billski said:


> Seeing?  Where are you thinking.  I'm still a snow-chaser at heart. and, i gotta knock off a few little hills up north soon.



You need to put McIntire on the list. I think you will like the operation.


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## billski (Mar 1, 2011)

Black Phantom said:


> You need to put McIntire on the list. I think you will like the operation.



It's definitely on the short list.


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## abc (Mar 1, 2011)

drjeff said:


> Right now, this thing looks like it will have 2 things to watch for.  #1, early in the weekend as "phase 1" of this storm comes through, that's when as of now the temps look the most questionable and also when things will be the most moisture starved.  As the weekend goes on, it looks like "phase 2" will have both more cold air and more moisture with which to work with.
> 
> Lots of stuff to figure out, but this very well could end up being one of the classical later season events for ski country where the dividing line between all frozen and some mix/liquid sets up somewhere between the Mass Pike and the MA/VT/NH border


Well, if the freeze line is at the MA boarder, I'll be a very happy camper. Because right now, some forecast is still predicting rain for  as far north as the  North Conway area, which is where I'll be heading for.


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## drjeff (Mar 1, 2011)

abc said:


> Well, if the freeze line is at the MA boarder, I'll be a very happy camper. Because right now, some forecast is still predicting rain for  as far north as the  North Conway area, which is where I'll be heading for.



I'm going with the recent storm trend of models 5 days out vs. actual reality which of late has been that our air masses across the Northeast have been colder than the models want them to be.  My guess as to why we've been "lucking out" temp wise is that the Atlantic is a solid 5 or so degrees colder off Southern New England now than it typically is, so as the storms get closer and start to drag in some air (and moisture) off the Atlantic,  the storm system itself isn't getting air as warm as the models are expecting it to be, and as such, the mixing line is staying further South


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 1, 2011)

going to watch it and make a decision later tomorrow or thurs....is the possiblity there of some big snows for monday?


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## drjeff (Mar 1, 2011)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> going to watch it and make a decision later tomorrow or thurs....is the possiblity there of some big snows for monday?



As of right now, the models are suggesting that the part of the weather event this weekend with the most moisture potential will be late Sunday/Monday.


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## psyflyer (Mar 1, 2011)

drjeff said:


> As of right now, the models are suggesting that the part of the weather event this weekend with the most moisture potential will be late Sunday/Monday.



appreciate your updates, thanks.


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## WJenness (Mar 1, 2011)

Heading up to SR for the weekend with some friends...

Here's to hoping it snows!

If not, the beer will still be cold and refreshing.

-w


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## Glenn (Mar 2, 2011)

I hope the temps stay cooler for whatever happens this weekend.


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## WinnChill (Mar 2, 2011)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> WinnChill...where are ya on this one??



Back at it this morning with updated VT (Bromley for you Quattro), NH, and ME forecasts posted.  I'll l continue fine tuning through the day as I catch up on more data.  Looks like DrJeff has had a good handle on things.  :beer:


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 2, 2011)

Winn...much appreciated, great work!  Saturday looks ok, winds maybe an issue, but with Bromley facing south, the winds would be mostly at the chair's back so hoping that wont put a hold on the summit.

may just go with plan A ...drive up Fri, ski saturday...may have to bag sunday...


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## WinnChill (Mar 2, 2011)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> Winn...much appreciated, great work!  Saturday looks ok, winds maybe an issue, but with Bromley facing south, the winds would be mostly at the chair's back so hoping that wont put a hold on the summit.
> 
> may just go with plan A ...drive up Fri, ski saturday...may have to bag sunday...



No problem...I hate being out of the loop like that...even just a couple of days is an eternity in the weather world.  

Anyways, yeah, we'll have to watch the winds on Saturday...are some of Bromley's slopes a bit more SE?  If so, it could be an issue...will take a closer look at their trail map and eval the winds as we move forward.  Saturday will be more showery and light like Dr Jeff alluded to, as this system takes shape during the day--perhaps some heavier/steadier precip west and north and maybe dropping in SVT late PM Sat with most of it Sunday.  Wow, lots to look over!  Will check back soon.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 2, 2011)

would consider another area that wouldnt be affected with the winds as much...


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## psyflyer (Mar 2, 2011)

Started snowing about an hour ago at Burke.  Its now coming down heavy, there is a coating on the ground and dumping.


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## billski (Mar 2, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> No problem...I hate being out of the loop like that...even just a couple of days is an eternity in the weather world.
> 
> Anyways, yeah, we'll have to watch the winds on Saturday...are some of Bromley's slopes a bit more SE?  If so, it could be an issue...will take a closer look at their trail map and eval the winds as we move forward.  Saturday will be more showery and light like Dr Jeff alluded to, as this system takes shape during the day--perhaps some heavier/steadier precip west and north and maybe dropping in SVT late PM Sat with most of it Sunday.  Wow, lots to look over!  Will check back soon.



You know guys and gals, we owe WinnChill big this year.  Let's let him chill a bit and get out and ski!  Maybe even hand over some of those idle vouchers that are hitting the boards about now!


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## ScottySkis (Mar 2, 2011)

Any idea how Sugarbush will be on Saturday?


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 2, 2011)

click on Winns forecast (a few posts above)


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## gmcunni (Mar 2, 2011)

crap, just noticed the forecast for the weekend :-(


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## gmcunni (Mar 2, 2011)

Scotty said:


> Any idea how Sugarbush will be on Saturday?



http://www.snowforecast.com/SugarbushResort


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## WinnChill (Mar 2, 2011)

gmcunni said:


> http://www.snowforecast.com/SugarbushResort



We may have to nudge those winds up on Saturday PM/Sunday AM...perhaps 40-50+ summit winds.  Certainly going to watch that closely.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 2, 2011)

So thanks again winn,I'm thinking of just driving uo saturday and skiing at Smuggs on sun and monday,is it looking like that would be the most cheap and fun skiing for the weekend?


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 2, 2011)

sat looks like the driest day with winds increasing, sun a possible washout and with the overnight temps dipping, monday's snow would be a glazed ice mess...... my .02


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## gmcunni (Mar 2, 2011)

i have 2 tix to Magic i was hoping to use this weekend. not really in the mood to drive 3 hours to get soaked. have to watch this closely and hope for a change.


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 2, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> We may have to nudge those winds up on Saturday PM/Sunday AM...perhaps 40-50+ summit winds.  Certainly going to watch that closely.



Sounds like blowtorch city :sad:


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 2, 2011)

still thinking and hoping saturday morning in to mid afternoon will be ok....thoughts?


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## ScottySkis (Mar 2, 2011)

What about skiing the catskills on saturday then driving up to northern vermont to ski sunday and monday?


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## skierbum (Mar 2, 2011)

From what i'm reading, everywhere is going to get rain on Sunday. Personally, I wouldn't want to be skiing those days.

I'm wondering, what is Saturday supposed to be like? I'm thinking about going to Wildcat that day. 

Does anyone know if Wildcat is good with the wind? Or not so much?


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 2, 2011)

i'd hold off on your trip....going to be a mess....i'm on the fence about saturday..will make a decsion tomorrow, will keep checking the reports and charts tonight...


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## skierbum (Mar 2, 2011)

Do you happen to know what way the winds will be hitting?


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## billski (Mar 2, 2011)

If your limo driver is up to it, think about SL/Saddleback/SR/Black
http://snowforecast.com/SaddlebackSkiArea

http://www.saddlebackmaine.com/conditions


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## ScottySkis (Mar 2, 2011)

Ya I love to try maine but its a trip from metro NYC area


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## psyflyer (Mar 2, 2011)

Im hoping for a favorable turnout of this storm, but today it started snowing around 830am on Burke and by noon it had dumped another 4-6 inches.  The conditions on the mountain are prime and the extra snow we recieved today was awesome.  The snow was a little heavy but it was cold enough that it kept nice and fast.  Wind picked up after 1pm and the chair lift operator told me it was blowing up to 50mph, seemed a little less to me, but it was a fun swinging on the chairlift nonetheless.  There were maybe two dozen people on the upper mountain today, fresh tracks all day.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 2, 2011)

Again, please stop telling people about Burke..  

believe i just saw a model with 65  knot winds on Saturday (approx 70 mph)


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## billski (Mar 2, 2011)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> believe i just saw a model with 65  knot winds on Saturday (approx 70 mph)



Knots are for sailing, not skiing  

Sure you  were not looking at the open waters forecast?


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 2, 2011)

lower left box is wind....hoping i'm reading it wrong


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## WinnChill (Mar 2, 2011)

skierbum said:


> Do you happen to know what way the winds will be hitting?



Southerly base winds...a bit more southwesterly for high summits.  

FYI--chart winds are in knots.

Scotty--precip will be more widespread further west into NY so the Catskills would see a better chance of that moving in on Saturday.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 2, 2011)

So maybe okay to ski the catskills or Gore in the upstate ny on saturday?


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## skierbum (Mar 2, 2011)

And when are the winds expected to hit? I've heard late Saturday (like 4).

Would this be correct? Or will the winds be consistent over the day?


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## WinnChill (Mar 2, 2011)

Scotty said:


> So maybe okay to ski the catskills or Gore in the upstate ny on saturday?



It would be a very close call--western NY would see the best threat of scattered/numerous showers...probably more isolated for Gore but would think you'd see more widespread showers for the afternoon.


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## WinnChill (Mar 2, 2011)

skierbum said:


> And when are the winds expected to hit? I've heard late Saturday (like 4).
> 
> Would this be correct? Or will the winds be consistent over the day?



You can't really pin down a specific time for winds...it looks like a rather consistent flow through most of the day but if there is a stronger period, it would be the afternoon as it looks right now.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 2, 2011)

Thanks Winn,so maybe I just ski Monday at Hunter and make a trip to north VT another weekend


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## WinnChill (Mar 2, 2011)

Scotty said:


> Thanks Winn,so maybe I just ski Monday at Hunter and make a trip to north VT another weekend



It's looking kinda rough Scotty.  I was going to try for some slope time Sunday morning on the way back from playing a show in N VT Sat night but will likely bag it.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 2, 2011)

most of saturday going to be salvagable??


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## UVSHTSTRM (Mar 3, 2011)

So weather guru's, is the forcast changing for the NE for the 6/7 of March?  I noticed accuweather has slid this storm out over the atlantic seaboard, rather than the St Lawerence?  They have pretty much all of Vt, NH and Me in a all snow scenerio.  I know I know, accuwether isn't the best, but hey I am looking for any glimmer of hope.


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## WinnChill (Mar 3, 2011)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> most of saturday going to be salvagable??



It actually may not be too bad--precip should be mainly light, isolated stuff most of the day with the steadier stuff hanging west...and S VT (Bromley) would be a bit better than northern (relatively speaking).  I'll post a little later to see if you could squeak by on Sat.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 3, 2011)

Thanks Winn, much appreciated....Albany is showing mostly cloudy on Sat and that being west of bromley i would have to assume we'd be ok....i'm no weather expert but i did stay at a holiday inn express last night...


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## WinnChill (Mar 3, 2011)

UVSHTSTRM said:


> So weather guru's, is the forcast changing for the NE for the 6/7 of March?  I noticed accuweather has slid this storm out over the atlantic seaboard, rather than the St Lawerence?  They have pretty much all of Vt, NH and Me in a all snow scenerio.  I know I know, accuwether isn't the best, but hey I am looking for any glimmer of hope.



We're trying to resolve whether it will be two separate systems sliding through or merging into one over a couple of days.  Looking more like it setting up to our southwest on Saturday, then slowly developing as one system Sunday and sliding through slowly Sunday thru Monday--a very complicated setup.  Any slow moving system like this can evolve into a totally different beast.  We have adjusted N VT resorts for more snow to start and end with (some mixing in between). Perhaps Jay/Burke/Bolton/Smuggs/Stowe can hang on longer to the snow with more accumulations on either end of this storm.  We'll see and keep you posted.


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## WinnChill (Mar 3, 2011)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> Thanks Winn, much appreciated....Albany is showing mostly cloudy on Sat and that being west of bromley i would have to assume we'd be ok....i'm no weather expert but i did stay at a holiday inn express last night...



  Ha, nice!  If this thing can hang back and develop more on Saturday, it would buy us a little more time.  If that's the case, I could see us in the warm sector (warmer, southerly flow) a bit longer, especially with the slow nature of this setup--maybe even some sunny breaks (mostly cloudy like Albany suggested) and showers arriving late PM/overnight.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 3, 2011)

that'd be a fine forecast for saturday...keep us posted and thanks again!


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## drjeff (Mar 3, 2011)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> that'd be a fine forecast for saturday...keep us posted and thanks again!



FWIW, my local TV meterologist that I watch in the Hartford area (and who usually has a decent handle on his forcasts) this morning was saying the exact thing that Winn just mentioned.  Where it seems as if the storm entrance may be slowing, thus Saturday could end up be mainly cloudy and dry, with increasing winds, and then the 1st have of Sunday may also turn out dry.  The greatest chance of precip is starting to look like it will be late Sunday into Monday.  If that scenario does pan out, this could be a decent weekend, precip free for the vast majority of the weekend skiing hours and comfortable temps, and the biggest worry might end up being if the winds will effect the lifts??

We'll see, since as always were dealing with trying to figure out something that is 72 or so hours out and 3000+ miles away right now, so there's only about 1,000,001 variables involved!  :lol:


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## ScottySkis (Mar 3, 2011)

So Winn maybe I ski magic on saturday and then ski in North Vt on sun and monday


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 3, 2011)

if that was the scenario then the winds wouldnt start to show till sometime on sunday.....right?


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## o3jeff (Mar 3, 2011)

drjeff said:


> FWIW, my local TV meterologist that I watch in the Hartford area (and who usually has a decent handle on his forcasts) this morning was saying the exact thing that Winn just mentioned.  Where it seems as if the storm entrance may be slowing, thus Saturday could end up be mainly cloudy and dry, with increasing winds, and then the 1st have of Sunday may also turn out dry.  The greatest chance of precip is starting to look like it will be late Sunday into Monday.  If that scenario does pan out, this could be a decent weekend, precip free for the vast majority of the weekend skiing hours and comfortable temps, and the biggest worry might end up being if the winds will effect the lifts??
> 
> We'll see, since as always were dealing with trying to figure out something that is 72 or so hours out and 3000+ miles away right now, so there's only about 1,000,001 variables involved!  :lol:



It doesn't sound like you watch Scot Haney...


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## WinnChill (Mar 3, 2011)

Scotty said:


> So Winn maybe I ski magic on saturday and then ski in North Vt on sun and monday



That very well may be a good plan Scotty.  Magic may hold out for Sat--then a transition day for NVT Sunday (mix to snow...if they mix at all), then finishing out with snow for N VT Mon.....something like that.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 3, 2011)

wondering if a day trip to Mohawk in CT or Jiminy Saturday and save Bromley till next weekend  (long range looks nice for that weekend)


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## drjeff (Mar 3, 2011)

o3jeff said:


> It doesn't sound like you watch Scot Haney...



Umm that would be a negative!  He's entertaining for sure, but when I'm watching the weather, I'll take experience over entertainment anyday   Now when it comes to traffic reporters,  I could watch Olessa there at Channel 3 anyday   :lol:


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## ScottySkis (Mar 3, 2011)

Awesome thanks again Winn I know how our new england weather always changes as of now I go with skiing in southern VT  on sat and go north for sunday and monday


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## gmcunni (Mar 3, 2011)

drjeff said:


> Now when it comes to traffic reporters,  I could watch Olessa there at Channel 3 anyday   :lol:



I watch channel 8 for traffic everyday and I work from home.


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## Glenn (Mar 3, 2011)

gmcunni said:


> I watch channel 8 for traffic everyday and I work from home.



:lol: Classic.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 3, 2011)

still so many flip flopping forecasts for sat/sun...when will it be nailed down a bit tighter?


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## ScottySkis (Mar 3, 2011)

I don't think well know more to the storms form typical new england weather for sure


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 3, 2011)

think we'll drive up Fri nite, ski bromley sat and head home....sat looking ok as of now....


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## WinnChill (Mar 3, 2011)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> think we'll drive up Fri nite, ski bromley sat and head home....sat looking ok as of now....



Not a bad plan--I would probably go with that.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 3, 2011)

So Winn you think I should cancel my hotel reservation in north VT on sat and sun,and just ski sat in southern VT,I don't mind wet snow and light rain,but I don't want to waste money to ski ice


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## WinnChill (Mar 3, 2011)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> think we'll drive up Fri nite, ski bromley sat and head home....sat looking ok as of now....



Actually, winds may be a problem for the afternoon state wide...still looking pretty strong with PM wind holds a possibility.  Bromley's trail map isn't loading up for me but even with S-SE facing slopes, the summit winds may pose a problem.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 3, 2011)

apprx starting when?? 2-3ish? before that?


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## WinnChill (Mar 3, 2011)

Scotty said:


> So Winn you think I should cancel my hotel reservation in north VT on sat and sun,and just ski sat in southern VT,I don't mind wet snow and light rain,but I don't want to waste money to ski ice



It may not be an issue of precip but winds--looking kinda strong for the summits.  But FWIW, NVT could hang onto snow showers then mix to some icy/rainy showers in the PM---but that's when winds kick in.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 3, 2011)

accuweather shows winds all day in low teens...maybe they havent updated...


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## WinnChill (Mar 3, 2011)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> apprx starting when?? 2-3ish? before that?



No specific time but building through the day--would ballpark the afternoon getting pretty strong.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 3, 2011)

argh....what to do, what to do......


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## WinnChill (Mar 3, 2011)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> argh....what to do, what to do......



Wonder if the NE facing slopes (S VT) would fare better...ie K-ton, Snow, Stratton,


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## skierbum (Mar 3, 2011)

Might sound crazy, but Wildcat could be good. If the winds are going to hit SW, that means that to strike Wildcat, the winds have to go through the Notch. And if anybody's went through there, you know the weather can be drastically different.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 3, 2011)

Maybe I just ski monday at Hunter in the catskills and save money for another time to go to north VT,thanks Winn your awesome


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## gmcunni (Mar 3, 2011)

Scotty said:


> Maybe I just ski monday at Hunter in the catskills and save money for another time to go to north VT,thanks Winn your awesome



Winn is awesome BUT the season is running out of days.. get 'em while you can!


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## ScottySkis (Mar 3, 2011)

Yes season will end in couple months but I can only afford 1 more trip too north Vt this year I rather spend the money when the conditions are worth it,looking like mount snow might get some snow sunday night into monday and I have price chopper ticket I can use so I might do that


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## gmcunni (Mar 3, 2011)

Scotty said:


> Yes season will end in couple months but I can only afford 1 more trip too north Vt this year I rather spend the money when the conditions are worth it,looking like mount snow might get some snow sunday night into monday and I have price chopper ticket I can use so I might do that



i think i'm going to do (pray for) a day trip on Saturday to S VT. Okemo (they are hosting a demo day) or Magic.


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## abc (Mar 3, 2011)

If VT won't get rain till Saturday afternoon, does that means the Whites will stay dry (liquid-wise, snow is ok) till end of day? How about the wind situation? Only late in the day also?

That would be good news for planning Saturday if we have the full daylight to work with.


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## WinnChill (Mar 3, 2011)

abc said:


> If VT won't get rain till Saturday afternoon, does that means the Whites will stay dry (liquid-wise, snow is ok) till end of day? How about the wind situation? Only late in the day also?
> 
> That would be good news for planning Saturday if we have the full daylight to work with.



They may be ok precip-wise as well--maybe some snow showers turning to rain showers in the PM (a southerly flow is upslope for southern Whites...Loon/WV)...winds may still be an issue for them as well.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 3, 2011)

Some models showing the rain hitting svt around 10am on saturday after snow/mix.... Some not hitting till late afternoon

Weather...... Indecision may or may not be its problem..


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## abc (Mar 3, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> They may be ok precip-wise as well--maybe some snow showers turning to rain showers in the PM (a southerly flow is upslope for southern Whites...Loon/WV)...winds may still be an issue for them as well.


Is the wind going to be high all day or just PM?

I'm at northern NH. So hopefully it'll be more snow than rain. Or at this point, I'd be happy if it's just as little precip as possible. We've got tons of snow on the ground already. The later the rain comes, the bigger the window we get to play with the snow already on the ground without having to worry about wind hold or wetness.


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## WinnChill (Mar 4, 2011)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> Some models showing the rain hitting svt around 10am on saturday after snow/mix.... Some not hitting till late afternoon
> 
> Weather...... Indecision may or may not be its problem..



With a SW flow like this, you can get some showers with the initial surge of warm air working in (minor, light batch in the AM)...THEN you're in the warm sector through the day (mainly dry, some sun), THEN the spotty rain showers just before the bulk of the system late PM/eve.  The forecast is a little text heavy but as best as we could get it.  Most of the day looks ok.


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## WinnChill (Mar 4, 2011)

abc said:


> Is the wind going to be high all day or just PM?
> 
> I'm at northern NH. So hopefully it'll be more snow than rain. Or at this point, I'd be happy if it's just as little precip as possible. We've got tons of snow on the ground already. The later the rain comes, the bigger the window we get to play with the snow already on the ground without having to worry about wind hold or wetness.



Mostly all day ABC, sorry.  Here's Bretton Wood's forecast which hold out well with winds.  A few extra showers for the North Country and may hang onto some snow a bit longer...light spotty precip though.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 4, 2011)

Hey Winn how's it looking for Mount snow for Monday I'm thinking of doing that looks like rain will change to snow,I'm hoping its a lot of snow to fix any damage maybe?


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## WinnChill (Mar 4, 2011)

Scotty said:


> Hey Winn how's it looking for Mount snow for Monday I'm thinking of doing that looks like rain will change to snow,I'm hoping its a lot of snow to fix any damage maybe?



Oops, sorry Scotty...I had to update Monday a bit.  Here it is...not expecting very much.  Will watch for a possible flare up as this system departs Monday and will keep you posted.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 4, 2011)

Winn...thanks again for the insight....

leaning towards scrapping tomorrow and heading up next weekend and Monday...

with the 4 of us (me, wife and 2 kids) and the possiblity of windholds, spotty weahter, i'll bank the $300 for next weekend


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## ScottySkis (Mar 4, 2011)

Ya thanks winn I wait and see about monday


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## ScottySkis (Mar 4, 2011)

Hey Winn what do u think about Gore on Monday will be like condition wise


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 4, 2011)

accuweather still not showing the winds during the day on sat


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## ScottySkis (Mar 4, 2011)

I'm thinking it might it might be okay to ski in southern VT or the catskills tomorrow,the storm seems to be slowing down


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## petergriffen (Mar 4, 2011)

Smugglers notch tomorrow?  Too windy?


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## gmcunni (Mar 4, 2011)

Scotty said:


> I'm thinking it might it might be okay to ski in southern VT or the catskills tomorrow,the storm seems to be slowing down



i hope you are right, pretty sure i'll be @ Magic tomorrow.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 4, 2011)

Did forecast change for Sugarbush for saturday?


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## billski (Mar 4, 2011)

NWS forecast for Mad River valley & Stowe suggests about 8" snow beginning Sunday after the rain and as the temps drop below 32F. That's an under 2000' forecast.  Snow begins Sunday 7pm.  Yeah, that's forever from now and can/will chain.  Pray to Ullr.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Mar 4, 2011)

smuggs is usually ok as their chairs are below tree line (designed that way) i've been skiing all of smuggs when neighboring stowe has been closed due to wind


----------



## ScottySkis (Mar 4, 2011)

Ya thanks guys maybe I make the trip up tomorrow and ski sunday and monday at Smuggs


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## octopus (Mar 4, 2011)

Hey weather experts

Do u guys think it's going to rain even as far north as the Burke mt area? I'm thinking about heading up tomorrow
Thx


----------



## roark (Mar 4, 2011)

^yes. late sat > sunday r@in looks likely. I'll be there sat anyway


----------



## from_the_NEK (Mar 4, 2011)

Burke mini-meetup tomorrow? 

edit... I'm going to keep my mouth shut about Monday's potential, to prevent jinxing of course.


----------



## roark (Mar 4, 2011)

heh, yeah hedged for monday - didn't request time off but made sure the calendar was clear...


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## ScottySkis (Mar 4, 2011)

Ya monday looking great maybe I just ski in the north on monday and save money


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## gmcunni (Mar 4, 2011)

here comes the rain


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 4, 2011)

gmcunni said:


> here comes the rain



Quiet you....

A little  comes first.


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## kingslug (Mar 4, 2011)

And thats why I'm off to Utah...again.....


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## WinnChill (Mar 4, 2011)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> accuweather still not showing the winds during the day on sat



They just show surface winds...we're looking at winds aloft at summit level.  

FYI all--Monday's forecast will likely change to an unsettled scenario--just haven't had time to update today....had to skip out to Pats Peak with the oldest son (we have another skier in the family now!).  Will try to post more later tonight...busy day.


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## billski (Mar 4, 2011)

Holy crap!  NWS is forecasting 20" sunday into monday @ Stowe& Waitsfield.  Don't know if I should wet my pants, go into denial or get very sick on Sunday night!  They indicate it will be a very wet snow.

ALY seems to agree with 10+" for So VT.

"
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL."


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## ScottySkis (Mar 4, 2011)

Winn I'm glad you got out with your son today,skiing with your childern is awesome,I know monday will be great at smuggs how do you think sunday will be in north VT,i don't mind light rain?


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## Magog Fishy (Mar 4, 2011)

billski said:


> Holy crap!



Billski. Great pickup. I just watched Matt Noyes on NECN, and it looks like he is having the cold front enter N. VT late afternoon Sunday. NWS Burlington forecast discussion says models are hinting at QPF of .5" to 1" for Monday -- 20" on that means it isn't going to be wet. No recent Single Chair weather report. Roger Hill's is saying possibly significant amounts across the Northern Greens.

I have only been glancing at the forecasts the past few days, and had pretty much decided I wasn't going to ski this weekend. Might have to move some stuff around on the schedule so that I can try to get up to N. VT for Monday -- MRV and points North are looking like the winners.


----------



## billski (Mar 4, 2011)

I like the guys over at http://www.americanwx.com
Here are some of their quotes:

"This pattern has totally sucked since early February. .... After  the sheer epic experience of December/January, the 2nd half of winter  has laid an absolute turd. It hasn't even been that mild either, just a  succession of rainstorms followed by chilly nights that slowly destroy  everyone's snowpack."

"It's pretty clear that we aren't going to build on the pack and I'm sick  of the  32.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001  rain and pics of Will's mailbox encased in an igloo, followed by 5*  nights.
I'll take anything else other than that, at this point."

"Yea, Feb was fine....it just wasn't epic like Jan.

But THIS PATTERN NOW blows, hard.                                                  "

"This blows.                                                  "

"I think we pull off one more storm somehow. If we don't, then it was a great winter. But 2 straight Marches without 1"?"

"I haven't looked close, but I could see parts of NNE getting another  snowbomb. Parts of western and northern ME could get hit hard with some  IP/ZR thrown in."

"It's starting to look pretty safe to say that someone west of the low is going to get plastered with a whole lot of snow."

"Don't be surprise monday storm is colder storm than some weather people  think for inland sne area.   Southern New England area isnt done with  big snows yet long way to go . still have march into April ."

"BIG big big big big big big, BIG winter incoming."

and this is out.  Other regions not yet.






.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WITH HIGH IMPACT POSSIBLE.


----------



## Euler (Mar 4, 2011)

Does that map Billski just posted show a cuttoff from 1" to 10" across SoVT?   That's a sharp gradient!?  I'm going to be able to go somewhere to ski on Weds, so I'm getting excited by this!


----------



## billski (Mar 4, 2011)

Euler said:


> Does that map Billski just posted show a cuttoff from 1" to 10" across SoVT?   That's a sharp gradient!?  I'm going to be able to go somewhere to ski on Weds, so I'm getting excited by this!



Very sharp:


----------



## billski (Mar 4, 2011)




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## ScottySkis (Mar 4, 2011)

I hope these snow map is correct looks like Monday will be epic


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## ScottySkis (Mar 5, 2011)

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/ updated on Friday March 4,for Mad River Glen he saying rain up to an inch on Sunday will turn into snow on Monday


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## WinnChill (Mar 5, 2011)

A very text-heavy, complex forecast for N VT (Jay's forecast)....places like Jay/Burke/Bolton/Smuggs/Stowe may get summit accumulations.  

Will check back in a couple of hours, then heading north today (Stewartstown, NH) to play a show tonight.


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## billski (Mar 5, 2011)

BTV, 8AM Saturday
STILL
VERY LITTLE MODEL-TO- MODEL CONSISTENCY...THEREFORE LOTS OF ROOMS
FOR ERROR AND CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...AFTER A MILD START TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.


----------



## deadheadskier (Mar 5, 2011)

got 20 minutes down the road this morning and aborted 

was hoping the rain was gonna hold off.  :smash:


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## gmcunni (Mar 5, 2011)

deadheadskier said:


> got 20 minutes down the road this morning and aborted
> 
> was hoping the rain was gonna hold off.  :smash:



i bailed too. was planning on VT today but will just put in a couple hours local (hopefully)


----------



## Magog Fishy (Mar 5, 2011)

Using the most recent NWS Hourly Weatherly graph data it is looking like the two areas that have the best potential for a big snow event for Monday are Stowe/Smuggs and Jay, although right now the forecasted snow density is for heavy wet snow. For Stowe, NWS data has 17.5" of snow on 1.51" of precip.  For Jay, NWS has 15" of snow on 1.59" of precip.

If cold air moves in quicker and produces a less wet snow, could be one of the better single day storms of the season but I'll *speculate *that Stowe is a 20% chance and Jay is a 25% chance for a powdery snow. I'm probably going to pass on Monday, but will check the forecasts again tonight.

I was going to include my chart with the numbers, but I can't figure out how to format charts on Alpine Zone.

Does anyone know (Billski?) if NWS calculates snow density -- I didn't see it anywhere on their Hourly Weatherly Graph. 

Note: for Mt. Mansfield the data above is from elevation 3,444' and for Jay is from elevation 2,499'. About a year ago I could get NWS data from a higher elevation at Jay, but now I can't figure out how to do it.


----------



## deadheadskier (Mar 5, 2011)

deadheadskier said:


> got 20 minutes down the road this morning and aborted
> 
> was hoping the rain was gonna hold off.  :smash:



of course now the weather is great.  I encountered a steady rain for ten minutes and said screw it.

Truthfully, I think for the first time in my life the cost of gas factored in my decision.  My thought was, do I really want to blow through 6 gallons of gas at $3.40 a gallon to potentially ski in the rain.


----------



## reefer (Mar 5, 2011)

*Sad but true*



deadheadskier said:


> of course now the weather is great.  I encountered a steady rain for ten minutes and said screw it.
> 
> Truthfully, I think for the first time in my life the cost of gas factored in my decision.  My thought was, do I really want to blow through 6 gallons of gas at $3.40 a gallon to potentially ski in the rain.



Did play a factor in today also. Would have done twice as much driving as that solo...............sucks.
At work today just in case Monday pans out..............................
Actually getting a lot more done at work today anyway with nobody "bugging" me. Expecting a real good spring, got some vacation days in the bank...................


----------



## Masskier (Mar 5, 2011)

...winter storm warning in effect from 1 pm sunday to 1 pm est
monday...

The national weather service in burlington has issued a winter
storm warning...which is in effect from 1 pm sunday to 1 pm est
monday. The winter storm watch is no longer in effect.

* locations...central vermont into the northeast kingdom.

* hazard types...mixed precipitation changing to heavy snow.

* accumulations...snow accumulation of 6 to 12 inches...along with one
  to two tenths of an inch of ice accumulation possible.

* timing...occasional rain sunday morning...changing to mixed precipitation
  on sunday afternoon...then to all snow by sunday evening.


----------



## billski (Mar 5, 2011)

Magog Fishy said:


> Does anyone know (Billski?) if NWS calculates snow density -- I didn't see it anywhere on their Hourly Weatherly Graph.



For a good time, go here:

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/

Yep, densities as well are snow temp are measured.

Go here and putz with  the settings.
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html
select physical element: snowpack density (forecasted  for the period you selected) check skiing.  zoom in.
Someone needs to explain to them the diff between XC and DH.

Don't forget to go out and ski!


forecasts are fun.  http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/forecasts/
especially if  you load them into google Earth.


----------



## buellski (Mar 5, 2011)

deadheadskier said:


> of course now the weather is great.  I encountered a steady rain for ten minutes and said screw it.
> 
> Truthfully, I think for the first time in my life the cost of gas factored in my decision.  My thought was, do I really want to blow through 6 gallons of gas at $3.40 a gallon to potentially ski in the rain.



Sunapee was GREAT today.   Snow was great, no crowds, and there was no real rain all day. Had some light drizzle this morning, nothing significant, and it was over before lunch. Sun came out for a while this afternoon


----------



## billski (Mar 5, 2011)

Glad you guys had a great time. Starting Sunday, it looks like No. VT (MRV northward) is going to be spared freezing rain.  They should have all snow.  Places South will also pickup snow, but it will be preceded by some NCP.


----------



## thetrailboss (Mar 5, 2011)

Mount Ellen was great today.  Nice, soft, spring snow and no NCP.  Some snow at times, but mainly a cloudly spring like day.  6-16" in the forecast for now until Monday afternoon!


----------



## Warp Daddy (Mar 5, 2011)

Rained all day here BUT we're under a warning tonite starting At 1am  supposed to be 8-16 inches here in the St Lawrence Valley and Northern Dacks -- Bring IT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:beer:


----------



## Magog Fishy (Mar 5, 2011)

billski said:


> For a good time, go here:



Many thanks Billski! I knew there was a lot more stuff/data on NWS, but hadn't had time to play around with it. The interactive one -- http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html -- is cool for measuring forecasted snow density. The Google Earth Overlays are also cool -- I use Google Earth a lot, but had never had a chance to play around with the weather overlays. 

The cold front is moving in earlier than originally forecasted for N VT.  This storm could be a wet dud or a blockbuster for Stowe, Smuggs, and Jay – 16" could turn into 25"-30"; the QPF is there (1.5” to 2”); I think those three areas are probably the only New England options for this event – you run the risk in MRV of it being too wet; wind doesn’t look like it is going to be a major factor so Jay is in. I am going to make the call in the morning -- driving is going to be rough up there after noon tom. Unfortunately for me I have stuff to do at work that I rather not push off.


----------



## snoseek (Mar 5, 2011)

Magog Fishy said:


> Many thanks Billski! I knew there was a lot more stuff/data on NWS, but hadn't had time to play around with it. The interactive one -- http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html -- is cool for measuring forecasted snow density. The Google Earth Overlays are also cool -- I use Google Earth a lot, but had never had a chance to play around with the weather overlays.
> 
> The cold front is moving in earlier than originally forecasted for N VT.  This storm could be a wet dud or a blockbuster for Stowe, Smuggs, and Jay – 16" could turn into 25"-30"; the QPF is there (1.5” to 2”); I think those three areas are probably the only New England options for this event – you run the risk in MRV of it being too wet; wind doesn’t look like it is going to be a major factor so Jay is in. I am going to make the call in the morning -- driving is going to be rough up there after noon tom. Unfortunately for me I have stuff to do at work that I rather not push off.



I've been watching this closely. It even is starting to look more favorable for the loaf. I'm jumping on this mon/tues! Jay looks good, winds look ok too for monday


----------



## UVSHTSTRM (Mar 5, 2011)

snoseek said:


> I've been watching this closely. It even is starting to look more favorable for the loaf. I'm jumping on this mon/tues! Jay looks good, winds look ok too for monday



It is looking more favorable for the northern resorts.  I keep thinking this could be like those storms we see late in the year where all looks lost, but whaaaaaaabam, 2 feet of snow or more.  Seems to happen at the loaf at least once a year late season.


----------



## snoseek (Mar 5, 2011)

UVSHTSTRM said:


> It is looking more favorable for the northern resorts.  I keep thinking this could be like those storms we see late in the year where all looks lost, but whaaaaaaabam, 2 feet of snow or more.  Seems to happen at the loaf at least once a year late season.



Yeah leaning towards the loaf now as I carry a pass there! Watching closely for the next 24


----------



## Magog Fishy (Mar 5, 2011)

Bingo!

Tim Kelley on NECN (who I think is one of the better Meteorologist) says Jay Peak could come in with 30" -- see :57 on the video.

I'm not real good with this embedding video thing, so the link if the video doesn't show up in this post is: http://www.necn.com/pages/weather



snoseek said:


> I've been watching this closely. It even is starting to look more favorable for the loaf. I'm jumping on this mon/tues! Jay looks good, winds look ok too for monday



Brackett in 25" of fluff would be heaven.

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----------



## snoseek (Mar 5, 2011)

Magog Fishy said:


> Bingo!
> 
> Tim Kelley on NECN (who I think is one of the better Meteorologist) says Jay Peak could come in with 30" -- see :57 on the video.
> 
> ...



Tim Kelley is the man!

Watching this one close. I have to work till around 9 tomorrow night. After that I will make a decision and drive straight there, sleep somewhere in the lot as my little civic may not do so well in the a.m.. I'm not missing this one if it actually does come together!


----------



## snoseek (Mar 6, 2011)

Weather geeks, what's going on? The loaf still looks good from my very amateur forecasting. Anyone want to chime in, that would be great.


----------



## petergriffen (Mar 6, 2011)

My only option is cannon on tuesday so let's hope they get nailed as well, might be too far south and a day late but you really never know.


----------



## snoseek (Mar 6, 2011)

petergriffen said:


> My only option is cannon on tuesday so let's hope they get nailed as well, might be too far south and a day late but you really never know.



The point and click looked better for that area this morning, who knows.


----------



## ScottySkis (Mar 6, 2011)

A light wet rain at Smuggs so far not bad just wet snow suppose to change over to snow in a few hours


----------



## Warp Daddy (Mar 6, 2011)

Just finished plowing 6 inches right now -- still coming down -- 8-16 by tomorrow am -- it's heavy stuff when plowing but doesn't look that way falling --- Better than rain


----------



## hammer (Mar 6, 2011)

Warp Daddy said:


> Just finished plowing 6 inches right now -- still coming down -- 8-16 by tomorrow am -- it's heavy stuff when plowing but doesn't look that way falling --- Better than rain


Good news...it's almost balmy here in the MA flatlands and we're getting a lot of snow melt.  In all honesty I can't complain (nice to not see the ice dams on the roof anymore) but I hope the North Country avoids the worst of the NCP.


----------



## WinnChill (Mar 6, 2011)

Scotty said:


> A light wet rain at Smuggs so far not bad just wet snow suppose to change over to snow in a few hours



Just got home from N NH...pouring rain driving by Cannon--still skiing though!  The changeover is creeping towards Smuggs/Jay...perhaps snow at the summit now.


----------



## snoseek (Mar 6, 2011)

^^^^^^ How are the winds looking at the loaf tomorrow? I'm afraid they could shut me down. Should I try vt or nh instead?


----------



## from_the_NEK (Mar 6, 2011)

WTF, my thermo is reading 52! 
On the bright side, that cold front already has Burlington below 30.


----------



## WinnChill (Mar 6, 2011)

snoseek said:


> ^^^^^^ How are the winds looking at the loaf tomorrow? I'm afraid they could shut me down. Should I try vt or nh instead?



They actually may not be that bad...the winds shift around to the north through the day (bit of a lull as they do), but with this system going through as slowly as it is, that lull may be favorable.  VT would be into the north winds a bit earlier so maybe the Loaf isn't such a bad idea.  Will keep checking


----------



## ScottySkis (Mar 6, 2011)

Ya winn your great weather forecaster snowing for about 30minutes or so at bottom of smuggs afternoon is going to be awesome


----------



## thetrailboss (Mar 6, 2011)

Forecasts are saying 8-18" here in Northern Vermont.  2' in the Northern Greens.  It changed to snow right as we got out of mass at 10:45 or so.  Earlier than forecast.  We already have 2 inches of wet snow in BTV.


----------



## WinnChill (Mar 6, 2011)

Scotty said:


> Ya winn your great weather forecaster snowing for about 30minutes or so at bottom of smuggs afternoon is going to be awesome



Thanks for the kind words and report Scotty!  I would like to have had a better jump on the N VT snow--travels got in the way again, but at least it brought me to ski country (even though it wasn't for skiing)


----------



## WinnChill (Mar 6, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> Forecasts are saying 8-18" here in Northern Vermont.  2' in the Northern Greens.  It changed to snow right as we got out of mass at 10:45 or so.  Earlier than forecast.  We already have 2 inches of wet snow in BTV.



This thing is LOADED with precip--just a matter of when it changes over...very tough to nail down a time with such a s-l-o-w moving system like this.  Keep us posted with updates if you can--enjoy!


----------



## WWF-VT (Mar 6, 2011)

Still rain with a few flakes mixing in here at 1 PM at the base of Mt Ellen.  Temp dropped from 40 to 32 in the last hour.


----------



## thetrailboss (Mar 6, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> This thing is LOADED with precip--just a matter of when it changes over...very tough to nail down a time with such a s-l-o-w moving system like this. Keep us posted with updates if you can--enjoy!


 
Still snowing at a very good clip and not showing signs of stopping!


----------



## WWF-VT (Mar 6, 2011)

All snow now here at Mt Ellen.


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## billski (Mar 6, 2011)

Finally!  Yahoo!


----------



## Euler (Mar 6, 2011)

WWF-VT said:


> All snow now here at Mt Ellen.



I'm hoping to get to the MRV on Weds...keep the updates coming!


----------



## Glenn (Mar 6, 2011)

A rainy day in SoVT. At least Northern VT will get some good snow out of this. I guess it may drop a few inches of snow down here later tonight. Then in typical New England style...it'll get cold again. :lol:


----------



## thetrailboss (Mar 6, 2011)

Still snowing in BTV.


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## billski (Mar 6, 2011)

The gradient is so sharp that perhaps (cross fingers) Magic might make out.


----------



## UVSHTSTRM (Mar 6, 2011)

So today has been interesting.  First I did the CHAD (childrens hospital at dartmouth) ski and ride at dartmouth skiway.  It was an absolute monsoon and 48 when we got there.  I live in Claremont, NH so heading north to Lyme, NH did nothing to change our fortunes.  I took several runs and helped out with chairty type things for my wifes company who is one of the main corperations to participate.  Anywho, we headed out at about 3ish, it was still in the mid/upper 40's when we left.  I stopped in WRJ to get gas and it was 39 and the winds were howling.  WRJ is about the halfway point, got to Claremont it was back up to 48 and the sun was creating some light behind the clouds and zero precip falling.  Well now an hour later (got home about 4ish) the temp has dropped to 35....some in about 1.5 hours we have had a 13 degree drop, so perhaps even as far south as Claremont we could get some significant snow.  Also to note, I went out to clear some snow and decided to walk through some relatively untouched areas (dog traffic and sun hits this area) and after 1.5 inches to 2 inches (guessing), near 50 degree temps for two days we still had nearly 2 to 2.5 feet of snow on the ground.  We typically get less snow then just a few miles to the east gets due to shadowing from the greens, so it's really a quite impressive snowpack.

Sorry for the long drawn out post, but just wanted to share my observations.


----------



## thetrailboss (Mar 6, 2011)

Alright kiddos, hold onto your cookies.  This storm has come out of nowhere and is blowing up.  According to *NWS/WCAX* we are now looking at 2-3 FEET in Vermont and lesser amounts south.  Amazing.  The season continues!  March is BACK!  No more snowless Marches!  Simply amazing.  Still snowing in BTV.  No signs of stopping.


----------



## psyflyer (Mar 6, 2011)

Started snowing at about 230pm on Burke at about 1500 ft and earlier at the top.  A good 2-3 inches on the ground so far and we have 20-30 inches expected by tomorrow afternoon.   If the forecasts are remotely accurate, tomorrow should be epic.


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## TRWstock (Mar 6, 2011)

Here near the base of Mt. Ellen - what a day of extremes. Waking up this morning to the "monsoon" and seeing almost the entire snowpack on my deck dissolve - to now, dumping snow and about 3-4" so far. Quite a turnaround! Skiing today was actually not bad, and got better by the minute after 2pm at Sugarbush... and with the heavy variety of the snow - its sticking nicely to the wet base below - tomorrow could be epic! Start thinking of excuses of why you can't show up to work.. cough cough.


----------



## thetrailboss (Mar 6, 2011)

TRWstock said:


> Here near the base of Mt. Ellen - what a day of extremes. Waking up this morning to the "monsoon" and seeing almost the entire snowpack on my deck dissolve - to now, dumping snow and about 3-4" so far. Quite a turnaround! Skiing today was actually not bad, and got better by the minute after 2pm at Sugarbush... and with the heavy variety of the snow - its sticking nicely to the wet base below - tomorrow could be epic! Start thinking of excuses of why you can't show up to work.. cough cough.


 
My sources tell me that Mount Ellen was closed because Midflats was a lake.  They have drained it off and are getting things ready to reopen.  Not much snow loss from what I have heard and that things will be nearly 100 percent open.  Forecasts have been moving up all day, from 8-12, to 8-16, 12-24, and even 24-36 in some places!


----------



## thetrailboss (Mar 6, 2011)

Looks great to me!


----------



## billski (Mar 6, 2011)

TRWstock said:


> cough cough.



You don't look so well either.  Suggest you stay home.  Maybe a little fresh air would help clear the germs out.


----------



## billski (Mar 6, 2011)

Well, NWS isn't onboard with that, but with northern winds, the upslope potential could prove helpful!

WinChill forecasts higher for JP (18-26) than Bus (8-15):
http://snowforecast.com/SugarbushResort
http://snowforecast.com/JayPeak


----------



## billski (Mar 6, 2011)

Winn taught me well.  We love lows!


----------



## ScottySkis (Mar 6, 2011)

I'm so glad I'm up here in northern vermont,today was good tomorrow will be EPIC,


----------



## ScottySkis (Mar 6, 2011)

Oh big thanks to Winnchill he best weather forecaster for skiers and snow boarders


----------



## billski (Mar 6, 2011)

Scotty said:


> I'm so glad I'm up here in northern vermont,today was good tomorrow will be EPIC,



My money's on you quitting early.  I'm sure  you'll have an epic day (drool with envy), but  you will die with a smile on your face - that stuff is gonna be heaveeeeeeee.  :blink:


----------



## ScottySkis (Mar 6, 2011)

Plus 6 hour drive home tomorrow if traffic is good,I be happy if I ski 2feet of snow and start driving by 230pm


----------



## from_the_NEK (Mar 6, 2011)

billski said:


> - that stuff is gonna be heaveeeeeeee.  :blink:



The 1st two inches were heavy and wet, but the temp has dropped to 25 here and the snow is becoming fluffier by the hour. 
uke:uke:uke: I think I caught whatever it was that my daughter had last week and the symptoms get worse the harder it snows 
If that 32" WCAX has on their map is anywhere close to on target, I may end up puking out a kidney.


----------



## Zand (Mar 6, 2011)

Tim Kelley says biggest storm for NE VT since the Valentines '07 storm. 

See ya at first chair tomorrow.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Mar 7, 2011)

Zand said:


> Tim Kelley says biggest storm for NE VT since the Valentines '07 storm.
> 
> See ya at first chair tomorrow.



I'll be there! 
I just got up to stoke my stove and ended up getting myself so stoked on the 12-14 inches of snow that is already on my deck that I don't know if I'll be able to get back to sleep. It is still berserking out there too with no end in sight on the radar. Although we are living dargerously close to the mixing line.


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## snoseek (Mar 7, 2011)

Slept last night half way to the loaf at a friends. The trek to pow marches on in a couple. Wish me and my little civic luck.


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## roark (Mar 7, 2011)

from_the_NEK said:


> I'll be there!
> I just got up to stoke my stove and ended up getting myself so stoked on the 12-14 inches of snow that is already on my deck that I don't know if I'll be able to get back to sleep. It is still berserking out there too with no end in sight on the radar. Although we are living dargerously close to the mixing line.



heading out in 15... most likely your way, final call radar check near white river junction and again @ exit 23


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## thetrailboss (Mar 7, 2011)

Well this was a whopper.  Easily 20 inches in BTV and now blowing and drifting.  Still snowing.  Roads here at the condo complex are not plowed so it feels like The Shining.  :lol:


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## thetrailboss (Mar 7, 2011)

billski said:


> Well, NWS isn't onboard with that, but with northern winds, the upslope potential could prove helpful!
> 
> WinChill forecasts higher for JP (18-26) than Bus (8-15):
> http://snowforecast.com/SugarbushResort
> http://snowforecast.com/JayPeak


 
I'd look again there :wink:  Lots of "20's" on that chart.


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## billski (Mar 7, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> I'd look again there :wink:  Lots of "20's" on that chart.



Most excellent. How heavy is the pow?


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## thetrailboss (Mar 7, 2011)

It is surprisingly lighter here than forecast.  Watch this radar clip and you will see where the cut-off was...MRG, SB, Stowe are big winners here.  Killington, Magic, not so much


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## Cannonball (Mar 7, 2011)

Rained all day and all night in Lincoln.  Still raining hard now (6:30am). Lost massive amounts of snow in the yard.  Not good for Loon.  

Heading north in few.  Looking out the window it's hard to imagine that Cannon (only 10 miles away) saw the snow that was predicted.  But that'll be the first stop.  Then Burke.   Then Jay I guess.....

Mtns are being slow to post their morning reports.  That usually means one of two things 1) They haven't figured out how to break the bad news, or 2) They are having a hard time getting in because they are buried.  Anyone have first hand reports from the 93/91 corridors?


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## Euler (Mar 7, 2011)

Not a flake of snow fell down here in Putney VT.


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## thetrailboss (Mar 7, 2011)

The snow is dense, but from my walk to the garage this morning it is not wet.


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## psyflyer (Mar 7, 2011)

About a foot and a half on Burke Mountain from what I can tell so far.  Its puking hard right now and it looks like christmas once again.  First chair here we come!


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## hammer (Mar 7, 2011)

Cannonball said:


> Rained all day and all night in Lincoln.  Still raining hard now (6:30am). Lost massive amounts of snow in the yard.  Not good for Loon.
> 
> Heading north in few.  Looking out the window it's hard to imagine that Cannon (only 10 miles away) saw the snow that was predicted.  But that'll be the first stop.  Then Burke.   Then Jay I guess.....
> 
> Mtns are being slow to post their morning reports.  That usually means one of two things 1) They haven't figured out how to break the bad news, or 2) They are having a hard time getting in because they are buried.  Anyone have first hand reports from the 93/91 corridors?


From Cannon's website:



> *The forecast was a tricky one today and they missed the mark. We  did pick up *2" of wet snow/sleet overnight and there is the chance for  1-3" of snow today. *


Guess this storm was good for NY/VT and bad for NH...:-(


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## psyflyer (Mar 7, 2011)

I just measured outside my home and there is about 12-14 inches on the ground.  My deck has more but I am guessing it has some wind blowed snow as its 18 inches deep.



Actually upon further investigation it seemd like it rained all night here at Burke and we lost most if not all of our base.  I suggest the dear readers of this website to try other resorts in your powder seeking adventures.  Good luck and again there is no snow on Burke mountain.


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## psyflyer (Mar 7, 2011)

Cannonball said:


> Rained all day and all night in Lincoln.  Still raining hard now (6:30am). Lost massive amounts of snow in the yard.  Not good for Loon.
> 
> Heading north in few.  Looking out the window it's hard to imagine that Cannon (only 10 miles away) saw the snow that was predicted.  But that'll be the first stop.  Then Burke.   Then Jay I guess.....
> 
> Mtns are being slow to post their morning reports.  That usually means one of two things 1) They haven't figured out how to break the bad news, or 2) They are having a hard time getting in because they are buried.  Anyone have first hand reports from the 93/91 corridors?



Jay is already anticipating wind holds for some lifts...


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 7, 2011)

psyflyer said:


> I just measured outside my home and there is about 12-14 inches on the ground.  My deck has more but I am guessing it has some wind blowed snow as its 18 inches deep.



There will easily be over 20" on the top of the mtn before this is over.


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## marcski (Mar 7, 2011)

The bush is reporting 13-19" as ornow and it is still coming down...plus they are saying all lifts should be spinning this and wind holds! They say 2 feet by tonight!  Good day to be at the bush!!


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## thetrailboss (Mar 7, 2011)

Roger Hill has just said that we can expect anywhere from 2-5" on top of what we have now.


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## psyflyer (Mar 7, 2011)

Burke Mt. just reported 15 inches.  Sweeeeeeet!  PS - In the glades up top that always means at least 3-6 more...


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## TRWstock (Mar 7, 2011)

about 18"+ here near the base of Mt. Ellen at 1,500ft... best news.. no wind here. Potentially blocked by the ridge at my condo location, but trees here aren't moving at all... let's hope that stays and the lifts start spinning!


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## nelsapbm (Mar 7, 2011)

Must be lower level winds then 'cause it is howling at my house...about 15 miles "as the crow flies" west of MRG in the Champlain Valley.


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## 2sons (Mar 7, 2011)

marcski said:


> The bush is reporting 13-19" as ornow and it is still coming down...plus they are saying all lifts should be spinning this and wind holds! They say 2 feet by tonight!  Good day to be at the bush!![/QUOT
> I was curious to see snowfall totals for the "bush" and typed in sugabush.com_-boy what a difference the letter r makes!
> Grounded til the weekend, I hope there's snow left for me.


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## billski (Mar 7, 2011)

Drool

:sad::sad::sad::sad:
M--T-W--R-F-S

The dude on AmericanWx was right: :"BIG big big big big big big, BIG winter incoming."


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## billski (Mar 7, 2011)

Middlebury - 12-14 could be a lot of fun.
Whiteface - 18-24"
Cochran's must be swimming in the stuff.  They prolly can't move!


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## billski (Mar 7, 2011)

Winds are honkin'  (BTV plot).  Must be wind holds.
Stowe: Mountain Triple is open and the FourRunner Quad is on wind hold.  The  Gondola is currently on hold but we expect that to open by 9:15am.


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## Warp Daddy (Mar 7, 2011)

Titus Mtn got  24 inches of Blower


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## billski (Mar 7, 2011)

Warp Daddy said:


> Titus Mtn got  24 inches of Blower



What are you doing at home?


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## noski (Mar 7, 2011)

TRWstock said:


> about 18"+ here near the base of Mt. Ellen at 1,500ft... best news.. no wind here. Potentially blocked by the ridge at my condo location, but trees here aren't moving at all... let's hope that stays and the lifts start spinning!



No wind at 1750' Center Fayston (MRV) and no wind on the MRV floor/Rt 100...and a lot of snow, still falling.


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## thetrailboss (Mar 7, 2011)

SB is showing windholds for all lifts but GMX and Bravo.


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## billski (Mar 7, 2011)

noski said:


> No wind at 1750' Center Fayston (MRV) and no wind on the MRV floor/Rt 100...and a lot of snow, still falling.



That's a relief for MRV.  Can see drifts on the cam up at Underhill at the research center.

Interesting how may places are closed today in NH
Cannon, Cranmore, Dartmouth, Ragged, Wildcat, Whaleback
Most of Mass/Berks


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## WinnChill (Mar 7, 2011)

What a forecasting mess for NH this has been.


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## thetrailboss (Mar 7, 2011)

From what I have been seeing and hearing, there was a line that cut diagnally across Vermont and NH, from about just south of Rutland, across to just north of WRJ and up through Cannon area so that south of that line it was rain/sleet and north of it was snow.  The further North and West the more snow and the drier it was.  I have heard that the NEK got more r^&* before the switchover, so there is water underneath it.  Here in BTV it switched over 10:45 or so yesterday morning, so we lucked out.


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## WinnChill (Mar 7, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> From what I have been seeing and hearing, there was a line that cut diagnally across Vermont and NH, from about just south of Rutland, across to just north of WRJ and up through Cannon area so that south of that line it was rain/sleet and north of it was snow.  The further North and West the more snow and the drier it was.  I have heard that the NEK got more r^&* before the switchover, so there is water underneath it.  Here in BTV it switched over 10:45 or so yesterday morning, so we lucked out.



You got it--yeah, it was just a matter of tossing out some huge snow amounts for N VT...but the Whites were were a different story with a stalled mixing line.  I thought it would change over for Cannon/Bretton, etc last night.  :-(


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## thetrailboss (Mar 7, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> You got it--yeah, it was just a matter of tossing out some huge snow amounts for N VT...but the Whites were were a different story with a stalled mixing line. I thought it would change over for Cannon/Bretton, etc last night. :-(


 
I just assumed that those areas would have gotten snow, but must be the front stalled right near that area.


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## billski (Mar 7, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> I just assumed that those areas would have gotten snow, but must be the front stalled right near that area.



Loaf and Saddle made out good with a foot.


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## thetrailboss (Mar 7, 2011)

billski said:


> Loaf and Saddle made out good with a foot.


 
Looks like SR was a bit too far S.


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## TRWstock (Mar 7, 2011)

just got back from skiing a few runs at Mt. Ellen/Sugarbush (had to get back to work or else I'd be there all day) - truly epic, its about knee deep everywhere (i'm 6ft tall); and while only the GMX is open, plenty of killer terrain to get lost in. They weren't even starting to dig out the summit or North Ridge chairs (also on windhold) - so, expect those to still have fresh tracks tomorrow.


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## Cannonball (Mar 7, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> You got it--yeah, it was just a matter of tossing out some huge snow amounts for N VT...but the Whites were were a different story with a stalled mixing line.  I thought it would change over for Cannon/Bretton, etc last night.  :-(



Winn,
I really like your site, your forecast presentation, and your availability on this forum.  It seems like you're working 24/7.  I'm curious how much you cross-check your forecasts vs actuals and then use that as feedback for future forecasts. 

 I'm not saying this to be critical, because again, I really like what you do and I can only imagine how tricky it is.  But the Cannon area seems like it's been tough for you this year and I wonder how the learning process works.  There have been several storms that either missed altogether or were like this one.

Keep up the good work.


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## WinnChill (Mar 7, 2011)

Cannonball said:


> Winn,
> I really like your site, your forecast presentation, and your availability on this forum.  It seems like you're working 24/7.  I'm curious how much you cross-check your forecasts vs actuals and then use that as feedback for future forecasts.
> 
> I'm not saying this to be critical, because again, I really like what you do and I can only imagine how tricky it is.  But the Cannon area seems like it's been tough for you this year and I wonder how the learning process works.  There have been several storms that either missed altogether or were like this one.
> ...



I hear what you're saying Cannonball.  Yes, it's very time consuming--almost all of it is personal time and passion.  Since starting the New England forecasts a while back, we've been keeping some storm records.  Problem is, no storm is exactly the same and each one affects resorts differently in some fashion--many micro-variables for each resort is hard to keep track of, but I'm trying.  Recent travels the past couple of weekends (during critical storm updates) got me _way_ behind...believe me, I'm not happy about it but there was no way around it.


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## nelsapbm (Mar 7, 2011)

If you are on Facebook check out the pages for WCAX, WPTZ, and Fox 44. Folks are posting pictures - crazy. Easily 2' at my house with 6' + drifts.


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## ta&idaho (Mar 7, 2011)

Looks like the Adirondacks may have been the sweet spot.  Fingers crossed the niar stays away this week...


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## thetrailboss (Mar 7, 2011)

ta&idaho said:


> Looks like the Adirondacks may have been the sweet spot. Fingers crossed the niar stays away this week...


 
Dacks and Northern Greens.


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## billski (Mar 7, 2011)

*Here are the biggest snowstorms on record in Burlington:

1. 33.1" Jan., 2010 (kind of a fluke - very localized fluffy, light snow)
2. 29.8" Dec., 1969 (the Christmas storm)
3. 25.7" Feb., 2007 (the Valentine's Day storm)*


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## billski (Mar 7, 2011)

This is the strangest MRG live cam shot I've ever seen.  Amazing what a few water droplets can do!


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## thetrailboss (Mar 7, 2011)

We're at 23 or so inches here in BTV.  IIRC WCAX said it was #5 on the list.


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## billski (Mar 7, 2011)

20" Burke.  No wind hold.


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## wa-loaf (Mar 7, 2011)

Temps dropped 20-30 degrees over lunchtime here in Cambridge.


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## nelsapbm (Mar 7, 2011)

Winter storm warning extended until 7pm!


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## TRWstock (Mar 7, 2011)

Sugarbush reporting 34" as of 2pm at Peak. Still snowing HARD near the base here.


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## Zand (Mar 7, 2011)

25-30" here in the heart of the NEK. Still a few hours left.


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## Warp Daddy (Mar 7, 2011)

30 inches now at Titus will be there for opening bell in the am


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## Johnskiismore (Mar 7, 2011)

We got shafted here in NH!!

Was at Sunday River today, not the best conditions.

Boooooooooooo


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## KevinS (Mar 7, 2011)

Did the storm put down 34" of heavy snow? You usually see really dense snow when it transitions from rain, but 34" of base building snow would be an insane amount. Those are depths you usually see with light fluffy stuff.


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## billski (Mar 7, 2011)

You know life is good when the Burlington Free Press headlines:

Epic snowfall


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## psyflyer (Mar 7, 2011)

Still dumping hard on Burke.  24+ inches and counting.  Today was epic.


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## TRWstock (Mar 7, 2011)

KevinS said:


> Did the storm put down 34" of heavy snow? You usually see really dense snow when it transitions from rain, but 34" of base building snow would be an insane amount. Those are depths you usually see with light fluffy stuff.



The first Foot is heavy and dense, the second foot is somewhat lighter but still a bit dense, and everything that fell this morning and beyond is fluff/upslope type quality snow...


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## thetrailboss (Mar 7, 2011)

Burlington is reporting 24.3".  Underhill is reporting 30".  As said, the further east and south the wetter it got and the longer the r*(N fell.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 7, 2011)

thetrailboss said:


> *Burlington is reporting 24.3".  Underhill is reporting 30"*.  As said, the further east and south the wetter it got and the longer the r*(N fell.



I used to live in Burlington, and we tended to always get less snow than other northern parts of VT, so that doesn't surprise me.  I suspect it may have something to do with the greater width of Lake Champlain at Burlington.   All I know is we'd get something like 4" - 6" in Burlington and friends in St. Albans would routinely get > 10".

If it's better to be north and west with this particular storm, I wonder if the Adirondacks got it the worst?  I was talking to a lady in Lake Placid around 3pm, and she claimed they had 28" in the Village and that it was still coming down pretty hard.  Given that, I'd imagine Whiteface must be over 30".


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## thetrailboss (Mar 7, 2011)

BenedictGomez said:


> I used to live in Burlington, and we tended to always get less snow than other northern parts of VT, so that doesn't surprise me. I suspect it may have something to do with the greater width of Lake Champlain at Burlington. All I know is we'd get something like 4" - 6" in Burlington and friends in St. Albans would routinely get > 10".
> 
> If it's better to be north and west with this particular storm, I wonder if the Adirondacks got it the worst? I was talking to a lady in Lake Placid around 3pm, and she claimed they had 28" in the Village and that it was still coming down pretty hard. Given that, I'd imagine Whiteface must be over 30".


 
That normally is true, but the January 2010 snow storm actually gave BTV more snow than anywhere else oddly enough.


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## billski (Mar 8, 2011)

Here are the latest storm total from the latest storm:


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## moguler6 (Mar 9, 2011)

What an awesome, but frustrating storm.  3rd biggest ever for Burlington, VT and Jay Peak set their all time 24hr snowfall record.  How does this happen and yet no one came close to calling it.  I can't imagine what the totals would of been if Saturday and Sunday was snow instead of rain.  It absolutely poured Saturday night and the 1st half of the day Sunday in Vermont.  I left Vermont early Sunday and totally could of stayed up for it, doh.

Any chance we can hope for a repeat with the Thursday/Friday storm coming in?



From Weathering Heights

THE FOLLOWING IS OUR SNOWFALL NUMBERS AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN SOUTH BURLINGTON VERMONT THROUGH 9 PM MONDAY.
THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS 25.8 INCHES.

THE 25.8 INCHES IS THE HEAVIEST MARCH SNOWSTORM EVER AT BTV...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 22.9 INCHES ON MARCH 5TH THRU THE 6TH OF 2001.

TOP 5 GREATEST SNOWSTORMS AT BTV:
1.) 33.1" JAN 2-3 2010
2.) 29.8" DEC 25-28 1969
3.) 25.8" PRESENT STORM
4.) 25.7" FEB 14-15 2007
5.) 24.7" JAN 13-14 1934

TOP 5 SEASONAL SNOWFALL AT BTV:
1.) 145.4" 1970-71
2.) 132.0" 1886-87
3.) 124.3" PRESENT
4.) 122.5" 2000-01
5.) 120.2" 2007-08


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## WinnChill (Mar 9, 2011)

A long, drawn out storm with lots of changes for sure!  It was a little frustrating but that's the way it goes for stalling systems like this.  But I feel that our forecasted totals came pretty close....we called for N VT resorts to make out the best (ie SB thru Jay/Smuggs/Stowe).  While our changes came a little later than we'd like, we at least upped our amounts to 15-20" for Sunday with an additional 6-10" for Monday...storm total 21-30"....and it looks like most N VT resorts came in ~25-30" with Jay and SB topping out a bit more into the 30's.  We busted in some N NH resorts as the rain hung on longer than expected but our forecasted amounts for the area reflected lower (rainier) amounts further south.


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## ta&idaho (Mar 9, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> A long, drawn out storm with lots of changes for sure!  It was a little frustrating but that's the way it goes for stalling systems like this.  But I feel that our forecasted totals came pretty close....we called for N VT resorts to make out the best (ie SB thru Jay/Smuggs/Stowe).  While our changes came a little later than we'd like, we at least upped our amounts to 15-20" for Sunday with an additional 6-10" for Monday...storm total 21-30"....and it looks like most N VT resorts came in ~25-30" with Jay and SB topping out a bit more into the 30's.  We busted in some N NH resorts as the rain hung on longer than expected but our forecasted amounts for the area reflected lower (rainier) amounts further south.



So what are you projecting for the next several days?  Anywhere that might escape the nastiness?


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## noski (Mar 9, 2011)

ta&idaho said:


> So what are you projecting for the next several days?  Anywhere that might escape the nastiness?



noski predicts MRV will dodge it, and just. But while I am not a meteorologist, I have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express.


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## WinnChill (Mar 9, 2011)

ta&idaho said:


> So what are you projecting for the next several days?  Anywhere that might escape the nastiness?



Not the greatest...K-ton for example  :-(


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## skierbum (Mar 9, 2011)

how much rain about?


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## WinnChill (Mar 9, 2011)

skierbum said:


> how much rain about?



Roughly .5 - 1" rain Friday


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## John W (Mar 15, 2011)

Dr CHILL!!!  Any word on snow for the back end of this thing???? Heading up to killington for the weekend.  I saw something about Rain turning to snow friday night and into saturday... any chance of accumulation???


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## billski (Mar 15, 2011)

John W said:


> Dr CHILL!!!  Any word on snow for the back end of this thing???? Heading up to killington for the weekend.  I saw something about Rain turning to snow friday night and into saturday... any chance of accumulation???


You mean 13-14th?  Corn.  Crops of corn, even if there is snow.  Temps too high in the day not to be different.  That's my $0.02.  Pray to Ullr.


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## WinnChill (Mar 15, 2011)

John W said:


> Dr CHILL!!!  Any word on snow for the back end of this thing???? Heading up to killington for the weekend.  I saw something about Rain turning to snow friday night and into saturday... any chance of accumulation???



Yeah, Bill is right...not looking the greatest, but we'll keep you posted.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 15, 2011)

This sucks.

I DEMAND a late-season snow storm _(pounds table and stamps feet like 6 year old child)_


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## John W (Mar 15, 2011)

Bill,  I was talking about the Fri the 18, - 20th..  And I am totally hoping for some sort of coverage while I am out.  Even if everything is all corned out.  Actually it was wishful thinking more then anything.


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## billski (Mar 15, 2011)

BenedictGomez said:


> This sucks.
> 
> I DEMAND a late-season snow storm _(pounds table and stamps feet like 6 year old child)_



It will come, but you'd better be ready to bolt at the first sign.  That could mean abandoning your family.


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