# 1/7 Storm Discussion Thread



## Masskier (Jan 2, 2011)

Keep your eyes on this one. Could be a long ride to North country Friday.

 From NWS Burlington

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EST SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED FCST FEATURES TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JAN...WITH POTL FOR A RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED
STEADY SNOWFALL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


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## MommaBear (Jan 3, 2011)

Masskier said:


> Keep your eyes on this one. Could be a long ride to North country Friday.



Heard that this morning - weatherman said it looked like a "snow day" for Friday.  Already working to reschedule Friday's clients so I can head out Thursday night with the kids.  (Assuming it all pans out - will make the call Thursday).  Weekend showed WINDY.


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## billski (Jan 3, 2011)

Looking mostly like a No. VT modest snow.  Been amateurishly poking at the models this morning.  
Hoping it hits MWV cause that's were I'll be.   I would think about pre-positioning Friday night for first tracks Saturday (yeah, I'm sticking my neck out, but I'll be up there already.  EICSL members can ski BW for $25 that day.

WHILE ALL MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LARGE
SCALE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL
BE. THIS IS DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN TO
RUN AS TO PLACEMENT AND ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LOW...AND AS A
RESULT...THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WHICH WILL GO A LONG WAY IN DETERMINING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR. LATEST GFS SHOWS GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW OVER VERMONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY


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## Masskier (Jan 3, 2011)

Monday afternoon update:

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 248 PM EST MONDAY...CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE MORE CONSISTENT 12Z
GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLNS OVER 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...RESULTING IN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY JANUARY...WHILE PROTRACTED SNOW EVENT LOOKS LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES...MAINLY ACROSS VT...FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TIME
FRAME.

WE CONTINUE TO BE IMPRESSED WITH DEEP...SLOW-MOVING H5 CLOSED LOW
WHICH RETROGRADES SOUTH OF JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY...AND THEN MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING FRIDAY. INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE
CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION INTRODUCES ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW STARTING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
NRN NY...AND THEN DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS VERMONT DURING THURSDAY
AFTN. THE INITIAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LIMITED...AND THESE
SNOWFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ALSO INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. HAVE WORDED AS
"LIGHT SNOW" IN THE FORECAST...WITH POPS AROUND 60 PERCENT.

POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WILL
BE TIED WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS
QG DYNAMICS REACH THE COASTLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS SHOWS A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK BUT THEN HOOKS WWD NEAR CAPE COD WITH DEEP 962MB LOW EAST
OF CAPE COD AT 18Z SATURDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW IS STRONG...AND BRINGS MODERATE SNOWFALL INTO
VERMONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS SOLN
IS ALSO IMPLIED BY 12Z UKMET WITH SIMILAR SFC LOW POSITION.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH WITH LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE LEAST
CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IS NOT REFLECTED IN
CURRENT FCST. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS SOLN WITH GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY RIGHT NOW ASSOCIATED WITH WWD EXTENT OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL RATES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. IF SYSTEM REMAINS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...UPR TROUGH WOULD MAINTAIN LIGHT SNOWS THRU
SATURDAY...AND THEN DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. POTL
EXISTS FOR 6+" OF SNOWFALL DUE TO LONG DURATION EVENT THU-
SAT...WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE AFOREMENTIONED
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WITH COASTAL LOW FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THOSE WITH TRAVEL/OUTDOOR PLANS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS FORECASTS.


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## billski (Jan 3, 2011)

WE CONTINUE TO BE IMPRESSED WITH DEEP...SLOW-MOVING H5
_We want to be impressed_

ECMWF HAS BEEN THE LEAST
CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IS NOT REFLECTED IN
CURRENT FCST. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS SOLN WITH GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY
_Yep, that's what we like.   Firm commitments..._
p.s.,So why are they following the GFS if it has the greatest uncertainty?

PROTRACTED SNOW EVENT LOOKS LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Damn better be.  I've got a boatload of club folks heading up Thursday to pre-position


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## Masskier (Jan 3, 2011)

billski said:


> WE CONTINUE TO BE IMPRESSED WITH DEEP...SLOW-MOVING H5
> _We want to be impressed_
> 
> ECMWF HAS BEEN THE LEAST
> ...



the uncertainty in the GFS is how far westward the heavy snowfall will get.  They are fairly certain that we all will get some light snow, but someone will probably get dumped on.  Hopefully most of VT


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## Huck_It_Baby (Jan 3, 2011)

Top right I think is snowfall? Move mouse across #'s @ the top to scroll time. I'm new to these models but I think F114-F120 would be about Saturday?

By wed I'm making a decision on where to go.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html


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## riverc0il (Jan 3, 2011)

Thoughts from Tim Kelley:
http://www.necn.com/01/02/11/Foggy-...Flaky/landing.html?blockID=383366&feedID=6239

And the Single Chair Blog:
http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2011/01/fresh-powder-within-reach-as-new.html


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## billski (Jan 3, 2011)

Huck_It_Baby said:


> Top right I think is snowfall? Move mouse across #'s @ the top to scroll time. I'm new to these models but I think F114-F120 would be about Saturday?
> 
> By wed I'm making a decision on where to go.
> 
> http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html



The GFS makes more sense to me.  84 is 4 days from now.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html


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## bheemsoth (Jan 4, 2011)

What's the feeling on this storm today? I try to read the models, but I've got no idea what I'm looking at, so I'll defer to you guys.


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## billski (Jan 4, 2011)

Still too early to know, but to me, it's looking like a few to several inches, depending how it tracks.  Some models show southern New England getting the bulk of it.  Not a "dump" or a "storm" by my standards.  It might even push out to Sunday/Monday.  No meteorologist is willing to stick a stake in the forecast ground yet.  

Hopefully enough to cover the boiler-place base and make it ski-able again.  It looks like the mountains will get 1-2 inches per day over this week. Nothing to make the news, but for skiers and sledders, It all adds up!


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## gmcunni (Jan 4, 2011)

bheemsoth said:


> What's the feeling on this storm today? I try to read the models, but I've got no idea what I'm looking at, so I'll defer to you guys.



+1

if a smart person could post a  or a :-(  i would get more out of it than all the tech stuff.


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## billski (Jan 4, 2011)

gmcunni said:


> +1
> 
> if a smart person could post a  or a :-(  i would get more out of it than all the tech stuff.



I won't go on the record for smartness, but I'd probably give it a little :smile:


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## bheemsoth (Jan 4, 2011)

billski said:


> Still too early to know, but to me, it's looking like a few to several inches, depending how it tracks.  Some models show southern New England getting the bulk of it.  Not a "dump" or a "storm" by my standards.  It might even push out to Sunday/Monday.  No meteorologist is willing to stick a stake in the forecast ground yet.
> 
> Hopefully enough to cover the boiler-place base and make it ski-able again.  It looks like the mountains will get 1-2 inches per day over this week. Nothing to make the news, but for skiers and sledders, It all adds up!



Gotcha. My club is running a bus trip to Stratton on Saturday, and I'm trying to make my mind up if it's worth it. The price is right ($50), I just want to make sure the mountain will be in decent shape.


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## Huck_It_Baby (Jan 4, 2011)

When we look at the predictions and forecasts do they take in to account upslope snow?

If not is there an accurate way to predict upsloping snow based on wind, humidity, etc?

I wonder how much extra snow some areas might recieve at upper elevations from this possible "storm"...


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## WinnChill (Jan 4, 2011)

New model data is coming out as I type but just feel this thing gets pulled in too many directions and mainly offshore--Maine would probably make out best.  Will update shortly as new data is available.

As for Stratton, temps all week support snowmaking for all as everyone recovers from this weekend's torch, so everyone should be in good shape.


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## Angus (Jan 4, 2011)

WinnChill - could you provide some snow estimates relative to the Boston area - my other form of winter recreation is XC skiing and right now the "home" touring ctr don't have much natural snow on the trails. Thanks.


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## billski (Jan 4, 2011)

Huck_It_Baby said:


> When we look at the predictions and forecasts do they take in to account upslope snow?
> 
> If not is there an accurate way to predict up-sloping snow based on wind, humidity, etc?
> 
> I wonder how much extra snow some areas might receive at upper elevations from this possible "storm"...



As I understand, if the wind is blowing directly onto the mountain face that has its trail on it, you will receive up-slope additional snow.  Each mountain faces somewhat differently, though the vast majority are facing N, NW or NE.  So if the winds blow from the N into a N facing slope, you win with upslope.    There is an AZ thread where all the resort faces are described.

BC skiers take advantage of this upslope opportunity by figuring out where the winds are (not always slope-side)   and going there by tele.


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## billski (Jan 4, 2011)

Angus said:


> WinnChill - could you provide some snow estimates relative to the Boston area - my other form of winter recreation is XC skiing and right now the "home" touring ctr don't have much natural snow on the trails. Thanks.



Here is the official voice of WinnChill :
http://www.snowforecast.com/MassachusettsSkiResorts

They update it a couple times a day.  My experience is they don't stick their necks out till the confidence level is fairly high.


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## WinnChill (Jan 4, 2011)

Huck_It_Baby said:


> When we look at the predictions and forecasts do they take in to account upslope snow?
> 
> If not is there an accurate way to predict upsloping snow based on wind, humidity, etc?
> 
> I wonder how much extra snow some areas might recieve at upper elevations from this possible "storm"...



Basically, straight up model data, no.  Micro climates and local effects are left up to human forecasters to fine-tune.  

@Bill...the MA/CT/RI pages are on autopilot so we don't have more detailed forecasts for them yet.


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## WinnChill (Jan 4, 2011)

Angus said:


> WinnChill - could you provide some snow estimates relative to the Boston area - my other form of winter recreation is XC skiing and right now the "home" touring ctr don't have much natural snow on the trails. Thanks.



Angus--still think ME would make out better with this one.  Boston would be hard pressed to get accumulations, but we'll keep monitoring the model trends.


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## billski (Jan 4, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> @Bill...the MA/CT/RI pages are on autopilot so we don't have more detailed forecasts for them yet.


Thanks.  What does autopilot mean?  you feed from NWS unless snowfall is imminent?


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## billski (Jan 4, 2011)

Well here is what 
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Northeast-Kingdom-Weather
has to say:

Weak Alberta Clipper moves into the Northeast Kingdom with snow beginning after 1 pm. Expecting a trace to 2" from this system with higher amounts across the mountains. Highs today near 28. Overnight, snow showers continue with another inch possible, lows in the upper teens. Looking ahead - Jury still out on the weekend storm over whether it will be a significant snow storm, or just a long duration snowy nuisance.

Posted Tuesday AM


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## KingM (Jan 4, 2011)

billski said:


> Looking ahead - Jury still out on the weekend storm over whether it will be a significant snow storm, or just a long duration snowy nuisance.



At this point, even a long duration snowy nuisance sounds great.


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## WinnChill (Jan 4, 2011)

billski said:


> Thanks.  What does autopilot mean?  you feed from NWS unless snowfall is imminent?



The "all-human", detailed forecasts take much more time and we just don't have the staff to do all areas right now--we pull in our own data for those areas.


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## k123 (Jan 4, 2011)

120- hour gfs forecast is showing belleayre to be in the hot spot of this storm


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## Glenn (Jan 5, 2011)

This is interesting! Hopefully, it will pan out. SoVT could use some snow.


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## riverc0il (Jan 5, 2011)

You guys gotta stop torturing yourselves by looking at the models online. Especially in a storm with this type of uncertainty. If the pro and amateur mets are not willing to make a call yet or even make a suggestion other than "somewhere in New England might see plowable snow" then the pros are saying that they don't know, that the models are not yet reliable enough for even them to hazard a guess.

Even if the pro mets were 100% certain on this one, I'll leave the model and map reading to the pros. Obviously, it takes more than bookmarking the URL of a weather model service provider to know what is going to happen and how things are going to play out.

I am just glad we have many ski focus amateur weather folks (and occasionally a pro or two) focusing on what is happening on ski areas and microforecasting for the mountains.

Somewhere will get snow this weekend and I'll be there. I can wait until tomorrow night to get excited over potential accumulation maps instead of psyching myself out with unreliable preliminary model runs.


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## WinnChill (Jan 5, 2011)

Yes, it's fun to dabble with the maps/charts and all, but it does amount to torture.  But, what can you expect...we'd do anything for skiable snow, right?  We've been ballparking less than half a foot for most areas Friday for a couple of days now (and about the same for Saturday when the track looked a little closer) but we're edged a bit downward still.

This storm looks to slip by VT/NH/ME on Friday (clipping southernmost resorts) and then flaring up out to sea Saturday.  We like the potential of upslope snows setting back up for northern resorts this weekend (Jay/Bolton thru Balsams/Bretton and in particular SR/Saddle/SL).  So perhaps a bit for southern areas Friday but then flipping to northern areas this weekend...tough forecast...and things are still changing.  But we try to explain everything in our discussions.  Hope it helps!


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## St. Bear (Jan 5, 2011)

Here's everyone's favorite, Accuweather predicting the bullseye to be the Catskills:

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/43963/disruptive-snow-for-new-york-c-1.asp


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## ERJ-145CA (Jan 5, 2011)

k123 said:


> 120- hour gfs forecast is showing belleayre to be in the hot spot of this storm



I like that map - it has my house with 15" - 18".  Same at Hidden Valley and Mountain Creek.  If I wish hard enough maybe this prediction will come true.:wink:


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## billski (Jan 5, 2011)

St. Bear said:


> Here's everyone's favorite, Accuweather predicting the bullseye to be the Catskills:
> 
> http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/43963/disruptive-snow-for-new-york-c-1.asp



Just leave that up permanently and you'll be all set! 

Separately, regarding "torture".  I don't get my hopes up over watching models.  However, I do find it very instructive to understand why the meteorologists say what they say.  

What always blows my mind is how the media takes those statements and extrapolate from them, often without cause.

Regardless, I'm heading north tomorrow night.


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## gmcunni (Jan 5, 2011)

platkill on saturday, who's with me?

never been before but hear it is THE place to be in the catskills when there is fresh snow.


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## billski (Jan 5, 2011)

gmcunni said:


> platkill on saturday, who's with me?
> 
> never been before but hear it is THE place to be in the catskills when there is fresh snow.



Which reminds me, We need to get the visibility of the trips and events folder up there.  It seems to get lost.


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## 4aprice (Jan 5, 2011)

billski said:


> Which reminds me, We need to get the visibility of the trips and events folder up there.  It seems to get lost.



Bill:

I thought at one time you said you wanted to hit Hunta.  If that verifies you may want to go soon.  Plattekill is awesome too.  It was great up there last year after that huge snow.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## billski (Jan 5, 2011)

4aprice said:


> Bill:
> 
> I thought at one time you said you wanted to hit Hunta.  If that verifies you may want to go soon.  Plattekill is awesome too.  It was great up there last year after that huge snow.
> 
> ...



I have a really hard time going West when I can go north.  There are other issues, but I'd rather not bring them up in a forum!


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## psyflyer (Jan 5, 2011)

Burke was scheduled to get a dusting from a clipper which is going through now.  Instead we have a solid 4 inches since last night and still going.  We rode all day with maybe 20 people on the whole mountain.  I was not around for the thaw but by looking at the mountain right now you would never have guessed it went through a thaw just a few days ago.  The mountain is in great shape and it rides great.  Hopefully this coming storm will be a good one.


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## WinnChill (Jan 5, 2011)

Glad you had a good time Psy!  This next storm probably won't amount to much for N VT at the start (Fri), however, upslope snow tries to set up Sat so Burke/Jay/Smuggs/Stowe would have a better chance of that into Sunday with some slow accumulations.


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## gmcunni (Jan 5, 2011)

that map K123 posted is changing and not in a good way :-(


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## Masskier (Jan 5, 2011)

psyflyer said:


> Burke was scheduled to get a dusting from a clipper which is going through now.  Instead we have a solid 4 inches since last night and still going.  We rode all day with maybe 20 people on the whole mountain.  I was not around for the thaw but by looking at the mountain right now you would never have guessed it went through a thaw just a few days ago.  The mountain is in great shape and it rides great.  Hopefully this coming storm will be a good one.



Welcome back psyflyer and thanks for the update.  Things are starting to shape up again.


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## billski (Jan 5, 2011)

It's looking more and more like this thing is going coastal.
Not postal.


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 6, 2011)

psyflyer said:


> Burke was scheduled to get a dusting from a clipper which is going through now.  Instead we have a solid 4 inches since last night and still going.  We rode all day with maybe 20 people on the whole mountain.  I was not around for the thaw but by looking at the mountain right now you would never have guessed it went through a thaw just a few days ago.  The mountain is in great shape and it rides great.  Hopefully this coming storm will be a good one.



The 4 inches of fluff may have made the mtn look nice but there is a long way to go before I would say it is in great shape. :???: The 14 trails that were open were the upper mtn blue cruisers and lower mountain green runs that have man made snow on them. Those few trails may be skiing nicely but again the 4" is not nearly enough to get the natural terrain and trees back in shape. 
Here's hoping we continue to pick up a couple of inches per day.


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## arik (Jan 6, 2011)

The question on my mind is the drive up tomorrow (friday) night from NYC to southern VT. If the storm is going coastal will I be better off taking the Taconic instead of 84 or I95? Any opinions?


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## drjeff (Jan 6, 2011)

arik said:


> The question on my mind is the drive up tomorrow (friday) night from NYC to southern VT. If the storm is going coastal will I be better off taking the Taconic instead of 84 or I95? Any opinions?



Right now the way its looking like the heaviest of the snowbands may fall, you might want to stay off the Taconic in favor of the more major Interstates, as it appears this am, like there may very well be heavier snow to deal with over the area of the Taconic (atleast in the mid Hudson Valley section)


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## WinnChill (Jan 6, 2011)

arik said:


> The question on my mind is the drive up tomorrow (friday) night from NYC to southern VT. If the storm is going coastal will I be better off taking the Taconic instead of 84 or I95? Any opinions?



The problem is the band of snow setting up between the coastal stretching back thru NYC.  It'll be setting up late tomorrow so it will likely snarl traffic no matter which way you go out of the city.  We're debating how much of that band works into S VT resorts.


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## billski (Jan 6, 2011)

arik said:


> The question on my mind is the drive up tomorrow (friday) night from NYC to southern VT. If the storm is going coastal will I be better off taking the Taconic instead of 84 or I95? Any opinions?



This should help you decide:


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## drjeff (Jan 6, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> The problem is the band of snow setting up between the coastal stretching back thru NYC.  It'll be setting up late tomorrow so it will likely snarl traffic no matter which way you go out of the city.  We're debating how much of that band works into S VT resorts.



This storm is just really messed up!  :lol:


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## UVSHTSTRM (Jan 6, 2011)

St. Bear said:


> Here's everyone's favorite, Accuweather predicting the bullseye to be the Catskills:
> 
> http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/43963/disruptive-snow-for-new-york-c-1.asp



Or, if you watch the latest video you will see that towards the end of it (it's the the one with Mike Mancusso) he shows Maine and parts of NH getting "Heavy Snow" after it moves north and tracks back towards land.  Of course they really never do much detailed weather for Maine.  Also accuweather has a very messy take on this storm.  They seem to be all over the place and you have different people talking different things....they have been hard to follow with this one.


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## WinnChill (Jan 6, 2011)

drjeff said:


> This storm is just really messed up!  :lol:



Big time!  I had a heck of time trying to word the discussions.  So may parts floating/spinning around the region.  At first it'll be that band of snow, then some snow wrapping into Maine, THEN upslope setting up...it's a mixed bag.


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## billski (Jan 6, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> Big time!  I had a heck of time trying to word the discussions.  So may parts floating/spinning around the region.  At first it'll be that band of snow, then some snow wrapping into Maine, THEN upslope setting up...it's a mixed bag.



So why don't you just write

"We don't know.  So just go skiing, dammit!"  :-D


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## billski (Jan 6, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> Big time!  I had a heck of time trying to word the discussions.  So may parts floating/spinning around the region.  At first it'll be that band of snow, then some snow wrapping into Maine, THEN upslope setting up...it's a mixed bag.



this might be the only time in my short memory of life that southerly facing slopes may get some upslope!  Go Cranmore and Bromley!!!


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## WinnChill (Jan 6, 2011)

billski said:


> So why don't you just write
> 
> "We don't know.  So just go skiing, dammit!"  :-D



That's the thing--it's the weekend!  Go anywhere and I'm sure conditions will be great after a week of blowing snow.  A few areas may make out a little better than others but most should see a little light snow to keep us in the mood! 

I'm looking forward to more slope time early next week!  Wohoo!


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## WinnChill (Jan 6, 2011)

billski said:


> this might be the only time in my short memory of life that southerly facing slopes may get some upslope!  Go Cranmore and Bromley!!!



Cranmore, meh, not too much--they'll be in the lighter zones.  Winds won't be too strong for a huge upslope component as they shift around the next couple of days but I will be tweaking those SE facing slopes a bit more (Brom/maybe Sunapee a bit).  Maine should do ok Sat-Sun...will be fine tuning those areas soon.


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## billski (Jan 6, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> Cranmore, meh, not too much--they'll be in the lighter zones.  Winds won't be too strong for a huge upslope component as they shift around the next couple of days but I will be tweaking those SE facing slopes a bit more (Brom/maybe Sunapee a bit).  Maine should do ok Sat-Sun...will be fine tuning those areas soon.



Well then I might spend more time this weekend on the apres part of apres-ski.  :beer:


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## VR17 (Jan 6, 2011)

The problem with most weather forecasters is the more they hype the storm, the less we tend to get, at least here in the central Dacs. Had to crackup though at Jay Peaks daily snow reports this week. On 1/4 they had 0" in the past 48 hrs, 1/5 showed 3" past 48 hrs, today, 1/6 they say they had 8-10' in the past 24 hrs and now their total for the past 48 hrs is now 19". Gotta love those accurate snow totals, not just the Peak but they all do it. Lets see 3+8= 19 or 3+10=19. Wish I could get paid based on their formula. Back to snow, not even enough on the ground to X-country on a golf course now. Wish just once the weather guys would miss on the low side for a change.


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## WinnChill (Jan 6, 2011)

billski said:


> Well then I might spend more time this weekend on the apres part of apres-ski.  :beer:



Not to say they won't get anything but the upslope component for them may be on the weak side, but should be able to pick some up mainly late Saturday.  When are you heading up there?   I took the family up there 2 seasons ago and had a good time--great for my oldest to get a lesson while mom and dad (mostly dad) got some spring skiing in!


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## billski (Jan 6, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> Not to say they won't get anything but the upslope component for them may be on the weak side, but should be able to pick some up mainly late Saturday.  When are you heading up there?   I took the family up there 2 seasons ago and had a good time--great for my oldest to get a lesson while mom and dad (mostly dad) got some spring skiing in!



It's a Friday club event.  I have to head back down mid day saturday for another commitment.

There is always Sunday or next week.  No worries!


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## orangegondola (Jan 6, 2011)

gmcunni said:


> platkill on saturday, who's with me?
> 
> never been before but hear it is THE place to be in the catskills when there is fresh snow.



I will 90% be there, lok for loud yellow pants baby blue langes and a big Magic sticker on a white helmet.  Taking a weekend off from the big MM.


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## WinnChill (Jan 6, 2011)

VR17 said:


> The problem with most weather forecasters is the more they hype the storm, the less we tend to get, at least here in the central Dacs. Had to crackup though at Jay Peaks daily snow reports this week. On 1/4 they had 0" in the past 48 hrs, 1/5 showed 3" past 48 hrs, today, 1/6 they say they had 8-10' in the past 24 hrs and now their total for the past 48 hrs is now 19". Gotta love those accurate snow totals, not just the Peak but they all do it. Lets see 3+8= 19 or 3+10=19. Wish I could get paid based on their formula. Back to snow, not even enough on the ground to X-country on a golf course now. Wish just once the weather guys would miss on the low side for a change.



Actually, we did (not that I'm proud of it).  Questioning Jay's "reporting" is one thing but we had a T-3" forecasted for Tues, plus 2-5" forecasted for Wed (for Jay)=total 2-8"....and that was more than other forecasts I saw.  At least the report I'm looking at, they are showing a total of 11-13" for the two days so we were on the low side by a few inches.  I'd rather err on the low side because then everything else is gravy.


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## John W (Jan 6, 2011)

I heard Belleayre is the place to be in the catskills when there is snow (lack of lines, good steeps some glades and price...  I was on Facebook and the bellaeyre admin posted this.  Anyone know if there is any validity to it??

Belleayre Mountain
It's a beautiful day at Belleayre! Come on up and see what our groomers have done with the 11" fresh powder we got yesterday! Weatherman said 30% chance of snow with 1/2" accumulation! We got close to foot and it snowed all day! Our conditions are amazing!


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## UVSHTSTRM (Jan 6, 2011)

Well if this weeks/weekend storm doesn't pan out for many in the NE, well we always have this guys take on next week.  As I have said on other sites, I will believe it when I see it.  Getting one storm right 36 hours in advance is tough enough, but two a week to a week and a half out, thats wishful thinking.


http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/me...deo-norlun-trough-and-wild-weather-coming.asp


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## SKIQUATTRO (Jan 6, 2011)

i like the pattern...16th is MLK Monday, will be at Burke....


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## crank (Jan 6, 2011)

VR17 said:


> The problem with most weather forecasters is the more they hype the storm, the less we tend to get, at least here in the central Dacs. Had to crackup though at Jay Peaks daily snow reports this week. On 1/4 they had 0" in the past 48 hrs, 1/5 showed 3" past 48 hrs, today, 1/6 they say they had 8-10' in the past 24 hrs and now their total for the past 48 hrs is now 19". Gotta love those accurate snow totals, not just the Peak but they all do it. Lets see 3+8= 19 or 3+10=19. Wish I could get paid based on their formula. Back to snow, not even enough on the ground to X-country on a golf course now. Wish just once the weather guys would miss on the low side for a change.



??? Their site says 13", maybe they read your post and revised it?


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## billski (Jan 6, 2011)

Check this out.  Confused yet?  So VT here we come (at least for the next four hours!)


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## rocojerry (Jan 6, 2011)

billski said:


> Check this out.  Confused yet?  So VT here we come (at least for the next four hours!)



Happen to have one of those from Maine?  or is their wx station not that advanced---   It looks like the bottom graphic for VT was from the last storm (dated 12/27)


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## from_the_NEK (Jan 6, 2011)

Bill, the second map showing Northern VT hasn't been updated since Dec 27th.  :smash:


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## mlctvt (Jan 6, 2011)

NOAA is forecasting 4"-9" of snow for Friday and Friday night for the Mount Snow area. This doesn't include any Saturday snow ..

Might be an interesting drive up tomorrow.


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## billski (Jan 6, 2011)

from_the_NEK said:


> Bill, the second map showing Northern VT hasn't been updated since Dec 27th.  :smash:



Ha! Ha!  too rushed.  I think the most snow will be in the cats.

Maine has not updated theirs either.  WFO's don't update their maps if they don't expect anything.  They also don't expect dweebs like me to direct link to the image.

BTW, Albany WFO which covers the Berks and so VT. does not do this map.  lame, lame, lame!

For fun, you can check out my page-o-links.  it will keep you busy for days.

http://www.iabsi.com/public/ski/

Remember, this is my private page.  I make no promises on either accuracy of the links or any time frame to fix bugs.  You get what you pay for!    That said, it's helped me find pow days several times.


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## SKI-3PO (Jan 6, 2011)

billski said:


> Ha! Ha!  too rushed.  I think the most snow will be in the cats.
> 
> BTW, Albany WFO which covers the Berks and so VT. does not do this map.  lame, lame, lame!



Is this close enough?

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/WSW.htm


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## billski (Jan 6, 2011)

THAT'S IT!  THEY DEVELOPED ONE! 

Hey Riverc0il look at this - our dreams come true!  
Thanks SKI-3PO!!!


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## SKI-3PO (Jan 6, 2011)

I just happened to find it linked on the American Weather Forums.  Sounded like it was new.


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## MommaBear (Jan 6, 2011)

mlctvt said:


> NOAA is forecasting 4"-9" of snow for Friday and Friday night for the Mount Snow area. This doesn't include any Saturday snow ..
> 
> Might be an interesting drive up tomorrow.



Kind of hoping for enough scare here to get a snow day from school so we can head up early!


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## riverc0il (Jan 6, 2011)

billski said:


> THAT'S IT!  THEY DEVELOPED ONE!
> 
> Hey Riverc0il look at this - our dreams come true!
> Thanks SKI-3PO!!!


BEAUTIFUL!!! My thanks as well SKI-3PO.


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## arik (Jan 6, 2011)

Thanks for the info, looks like I95 to I91 and leave late will be my best bet


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## gmcunni (Jan 6, 2011)

SKI-3PO said:


> Is this close enough?
> 
> http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/WSW.htm



Berkshire East might get some snow.... never been there, might be good...


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## lerops (Jan 6, 2011)

Plattekill is claiming they got 9'' from lake effect yesterday. Tickets are $15 for the first 100 people tomorrow.


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## Glenn (Jan 7, 2011)

3-6" in CT, 4-8" in SoVT. Cool.


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## ERJ-145CA (Jan 7, 2011)

They're saying 1" - 3" here now, kind of a bummer, I was hoping for more.  So far about 3/4".


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## gmcunni (Jan 7, 2011)

dusting in S CT. no school today.

looking out the window i don't even think it is snowing right now.


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## reefer (Jan 7, 2011)

gmcunni said:


> Berkshire East might get some snow.... never been there, might be good...



Leaning toward the Beast myself. Gonna keep an eye on the weather. If it's not bad tonight I may drive up to Mt. Snow. If I have to do a day trip I'm thinking the Beast. Of course where the snow hits will determine everything...........................................


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## gmcunni (Jan 7, 2011)

reefer said:


> Leaning toward the Beast myself. Gonna keep an eye on the weather. If it's not bad tonight I may drive up to Mt. Snow. If I have to do a day trip I'm thinking the Beast. Of course where the snow hits will determine everything...........................................



i'm skiing tomorrow solo so i'm  keeping it very flexible, waiting to see what happened.

Plattekill if the cats get hit hard
BEast if snow is a bit east
Magic is always a possibility when there is new snow
Sundown - i have my season pass. if the other options aren't great i'll just keep it local.


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## WJenness (Jan 7, 2011)

Still sunny here in Woburn, MA...

-w


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## drjeff (Jan 7, 2011)

Sun actually just broke through the clouds in NE CT about 10 min ago


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## drjeff (Jan 7, 2011)

I'm likely what Steve Caporizzo and the Meterologists at the Albany area ABC affiliate are thinking about this storm! 







And darn, if tommorrow morning at Mount Snow wouldn't be the 1st day of the season where season pass holders get the whole main face to themselves from 7:30 until 8 when mountain opens to the general public


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## St. Bear (Jan 7, 2011)

1-1.5" so far in NW Jersey.  Still coming down fairly hard, but it's a very fine sugary snow, so it takes a lot to accumulate.


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## WinnChill (Jan 7, 2011)

drjeff said:


> I'm likely what Steve Caporizzo and the Meterologists at the Albany area ABC affiliate are thinking about this storm!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



While I'm going on the low end for VT/NH areas, Mount Snow sounds like a great choice (or Stratton/Bromley/Magic).  Enjoy first tracks tomorrow!  :beer:


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## drjeff (Jan 7, 2011)

WinnChill said:


> While I'm going on the low end for VT/NH areas, Mount Snow sounds like a great choice (or Stratton/Bromley/Magic).  Enjoy first tracks tomorrow!  :beer:



I know Winn,  the analytical side of my brain is all over the low end of those numbers(so much that in a friendly side bet with a few Mount Snow regulars and some Mount Snow admins, my bet for the storm total was the height of a pint glass :lol: ), but the emotional, powder loving side of my brain only sees that high number!  :lol:


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## ERJ-145CA (Jan 7, 2011)

About 1.5" here so far still coming down pretty good.  Time to head out the door, my son's school is closed today so I'm taking him skiing.


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## gmcunni (Jan 7, 2011)

sunny in S CT. school cancelled, for what reason i have no idea.


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## bheemsoth (Jan 7, 2011)

Not much here in the Hartford area of CT. I'm heading out for a run soon before the roads get slick.

Looks like the Stratton trip was a good choice for me tomorrow.


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## 4aprice (Jan 7, 2011)

ERJ-145CA said:


> About 1.5" here so far still coming down pretty good.  Time to head out the door, my son's school is closed today so I'm taking him skiing.



Enjoy I may head to the Pokes this pm myself.  The futurecast this morning showed the snow pretty much ending here by now but its just ticked up again and the radar shows it still snowing in PA.  One observation:  the wind is dead calm right now and the snow is just sifting down creating quite the Currier & Ives sceneary.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## UVSHTSTRM (Jan 7, 2011)

drjeff said:


> I'm likely what Steve Caporizzo and the Meterologists at the Albany area ABC affiliate are thinking about this storm!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



WOW, at least for the Upper Conn River Valley of VT/NH I don't see anything even close to that happening, nor to all weather dudes around here on a local level and national level.  I hope this guy is right, but I strongly doubt it.  All indication is for a dusting to 3 inches.


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## Greg (Jan 7, 2011)

gmcunni said:


> sunny in S CT. school cancelled, for what reason i have no idea.



Here too. Look at the radar. I'm calling bust. 3" tops.


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## wa-loaf (Jan 7, 2011)

suns gone now. <shrug>


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## gmcunni (Jan 7, 2011)

looks like the snow is just about to cross the NY border.. but the blue blob doesn't look big enough to drop much snow.


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## jaywbigred (Jan 7, 2011)

I think we have at least 3-4 inches here in Jersey.

Anyone have thoughts on the post-work drive up the NY Thruway?


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## mondeo (Jan 7, 2011)

jaywbigred said:


> I think we have at least 3-4 inches here in Jersey.
> 
> Anyone have thoughts on the post-work drive up the NY Thruway?


Other than people will be stupid?


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## jaywbigred (Jan 7, 2011)

mondeo said:


> Other than people will be stupid?



Hahaha. I guess I meant plowing and such. We haven't had to drive up in a storm in years, though we drove home in one a few years ago from Sugarbush. It wasn't very good, but that was up north of Albany.


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## 4aprice (Jan 7, 2011)

jaywbigred said:


> I think we have at least 3-4 inches here in Jersey.
> 
> Anyone have thoughts on the post-work drive up the NY Thruway?



Ah the Thruway shuffle.  You'll make it, just a little longer then usual.  

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## roark (Jan 7, 2011)

gmcunni said:


> looks like the snow is just about to cross the NY border.. but the blue blob doesn't look big enough to drop much snow.


 The moisture, if we get it, will come in off the atlantic via the trough.


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## wa-loaf (Jan 7, 2011)

had flurries, now more sun.


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## gmcunni (Jan 7, 2011)

steady snow here now. roads covered, grass is not.


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## St. Bear (Jan 7, 2011)

Snow is tapering off here in Jersey.  Maybe 3" in the ground.


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## Glenn (Jan 7, 2011)

It hasn't snowed since this morning here. Really odd.


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## Greg (Jan 7, 2011)

gmcunni said:


> steady snow here now. roads covered, grass is not.



Looks like we'll get it in the 2 pm hour based on radar. Atlantic moisture or not, I'm calling 3" max.

BUST!


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## St. Bear (Jan 7, 2011)

Greg said:


> BUST!



They nailed the forecast down here.


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## Greg (Jan 7, 2011)

St. Bear said:


> They nailed the forecast down here.



I guess technically they'll be right here too. Forecast is 3-7". I'm betting it will be the lower end of the range.


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## gmcunni (Jan 7, 2011)

need to find catskills info.. Belleayre on facebook said 5 inches already and that was around noon.


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## gmcunni (Jan 7, 2011)

"official" state of CT info - 

BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW MOVING SLOWLY INTO WESTERN CT…
SECOND ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT… 

At 11:45 AM radar showed bands of moderate snow moving very slowly into Southwestern CT and another band of light snow in Eastern CT.  Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the entire state as a rare type of winter storm is now taking shape over Southern New England. The latest computer models are only in fair agreement concerning the location and timing of the storm and towns should monitor their local media outlets for changes in the forecast during the afternoon. * Also, both models are now showing that the Norlun Trough may remain in place on Saturday and allow a second round of moderate snow to occur over Southern New England Saturday night.  *

Detailed Forecast for This Afternoon and Tonight…

This Afternoon: The bands of moderate snow now entering Western CT are forecast to move very slowly to the East during the afternoon, reaching the Hartford area by 4:00 PM.  Additional bands of snow may develop in Central and Eastern CT during the next few hours as the trough of low pressure takes shape over our area.  In general the snow occurring this afternoon should be light to moderate, however potentially heavy snow squalls are likely to occur at times especially near the coast.  These nearly stationary “snow squalls” may produce snowfall rates briefly reaching 2 inches per hour this afternoon.  Isolated pockets of major impact are possible in the heaviest snow bands in Western CT or Coastal CT which may only be 10 miles wide.  

This Evening and Overnight: The snow squalls are expected to continue for several hours and then taper off from Southwest to Northeast from 11:00 PM to 5:00 AM on Saturday morning. A general accumulation of 3 – 6 inches of snow is still forecast for the entire state with bands of higher snowfall amounts up to 8 inches or more possible in a few towns.  

*Towns are advised that this is not a typical winter storm* and actual conditions (e.g. the locations of heavy snow bands if they occur cannot be predicted in advance) during the storm are likely to change.

Saturday and Saturday Night: *The latest computer models are indicating that another period of moderate to briefly heavy snow may occur Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.  Several additional inches of snow may fall during this period and updates will be provided with the next forecast. *

The Department of Emergency Management and Homeland Security will continue to closely monitor this unique storm and will issue another update at 4:00 PM this afternoon.


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## gmcunni (Jan 7, 2011)

more than 2" in the past hour.. snowing good now.


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## lerops (Jan 7, 2011)

Any updates from Catskills?


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## Greg (Jan 7, 2011)

gmcunni said:


> more than 2" in the past hour.. snowing good now.



Send some north. Hasn't even started at Sundown yet according to radar...


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## bvibert (Jan 7, 2011)

Greg said:


> Send some north. Hasn't even started at Sundown yet according to radar...



Seriously!  Looks like Sundown is right on the edge of getting snow now.....


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## ERJ-145CA (Jan 7, 2011)

It looks like I got just shy of 2" at home but at Hidden Valley where my son and I skied for about 4 hrs I'd say they got about 3"+.  It stayed cold so there were nice piles of pow all over the trails and a good amount of untracked on the edges when I first got there.  My son and I managed to track it up quite a bit.


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## gmcunni (Jan 7, 2011)

6-8" at my house now.  really coming down.

SW CT


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## eclaire (Jan 7, 2011)

I'm in Plymouth, NH at the moment.  12 degrees and the snow has stopped here.  Had a good day skiing the hard pack at Ragged.  It flurried for most of the day but didn't see any accumulation.  Hoping it will start back up tonight....


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## deadheadskier (Jan 7, 2011)

8:45 in Woodstock, VT.  slow steady snow, about an inch down


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## WoodCore (Jan 7, 2011)

Closing in on a solid foot here at my house in Waterbury, CT.


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## lerops (Jan 7, 2011)

WoodCore said:


> Closing in on a solid foot here at my house in Waterbury, CT.


 does that mean southington is the palce to go? :razz:


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## gmcunni (Jan 7, 2011)

foot here in sw ct. stopped now. great fluffy powder. i was out driving and on the unplowed roads i was getting face shots on the windshield :-D


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## WoodCore (Jan 7, 2011)

lerops said:


> does that mean southington is the palce to go? :razz:



Might be? Either way the skiing was pretty sweet at Mohawk tonight!


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## polski (Jan 7, 2011)

If I'm reading the radar right, Sundown has been in the middle of that inverted trough for at least a couple hours now ... how vigorously might they groom it out if there's a substantial dump overnight? Anyone from here know anything about the place?


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## roark (Jan 7, 2011)

Just a dusting in SW NH so far.


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## crank (Jan 7, 2011)

gmcunni said:


> foot here in sw ct. stopped now. great fluffy powder. i was out driving and on the unplowed roads i was getting face shots on the windshield :-D



We got close to 5" IN my neck of SW CT - Wilton.  This storm is definitely not laying an even blanket of snow across the land.


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## planb420 (Jan 7, 2011)

polski said:


> If I'm reading the radar right, Sundown has been in the middle of that inverted trough for at least a couple hours now ... how vigorously might they groom it out if there's a substantial dump overnight? Anyone from here know anything about the place?



Rep Chris said they would not groom the natty snow but also that they were UBER busy and that it may not be too much pow...? Hope that helps bro.


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## Greg (Jan 8, 2011)

Greg said:


> Looks like we'll get it in the 2 pm hour based on radar. Atlantic moisture or not, I'm calling 3" max.
> 
> BUST!





Greg said:


> I guess technically they'll be right here too. Forecast is 3-7". I'm betting it will be the lower end of the range.



Well, i was kinda right. The beloved institution found itself in a major snow hole apparently tonight. Sundown picked up 3-4" maybe. I came home to 10+ inches. :blink: WTF?



crank said:


> We got close to 5" IN my neck of SW CT - Wilton.  This storm is definitely not laying an even blanket of snow across the land.



Most definitely not.


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## o3jeff (Jan 8, 2011)

Looks like Mt Southington got the goods, I have about 8" in my yard.


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## powhunter (Jan 8, 2011)

Yep southington should be good today


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## VR17 (Jan 8, 2011)

Whiteface reporting 3" past 24 hrs as of early am 1/8. Central Dacs, Long Lake, Tupper Lake got about 1" in the past 36 hrs as of 11 :30 am today. Sun was out most of yesterday, few brief periods of dust. Sun was strong enough this am to warrant sunglasses driving east. Local TV station had us in the 8-14"  band, what a joke.


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## Euler (Jan 8, 2011)

Putney, VT in the CT river valley 1 hr from Mt. Snow has about 6" now and the snow has tapered off.


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## Puck it (Jan 8, 2011)

Nada in the Whites today


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## bheemsoth (Jan 8, 2011)

Solid day at Stratton today. There was probably 5 inches on the ground this AM with flurries through much of the day. The new snow held up well despite the crowds, and bumped up nicely after lunch.


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## thetrailboss (Jan 8, 2011)

Good day at Sugarbush North.  6 inches of new snow, 4-8 inches more on the way!


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## ski_resort_observer (Jan 9, 2011)

The EBN(Emergency Broadcast Newtwork) interupted the tv broadcast a few minutes ago with a winter storm warning of up to 12" by tomorrow morning. I'm pretty skepitical but the last two days we have received more than forecast and this storm so far as been a pleasant surprise. Very few wind holds today but the resort lost power for about 10 minutes in the late afternoon. I'm going to jinx fate and give myself extra time tomorrow morning to get to work.


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