# Peak Resorts:  The New ASC?



## ss20 (Oct 23, 2014)

Well, this doesn't sound good.  Can't say this is a surprise.

http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=174

Peak Resorts to Attempt IPO Again
Wednesday, October 22, 2014, NewEnglandSkiIndustry.com



> The pending event likely prompting the latest IPO attempt is a 10% interest only loan related to Mount Snow. $42.9 million is due on April 1, 2016.
> 
> According to the SEC Form S-1, Peak Resorts has $204 million in assets, $175 million in long term debt (most of it at 10% interest), and $3.5 million in stockholders' equity. The company reported 1.57 million skier visits and 182 thousand tubing visits in fiscal year 2014.



I'm no banker, but 175 million $ in the hole probably isn't a good thing I suppose.


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## skiNEwhere (Oct 23, 2014)

Yes companies don't want to have a lot of debt but that doesn't mean they can't be successful. The construction equipment company caterpillar is a great example of this.

As a shareholder, what I'd be more concerned about are their plans for growth. The ski industry is volatile due to the weather, I don't see much growth from operations alone, it would have to come from real estate.


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## Domeskier (Oct 23, 2014)

L





skiNEwhere said:


> Yes companies don't want to have a lot of debt but that doesn't mean they can't be successful. The construction equipment company caterpillar is a great example of this.
> 
> As a shareholder, what I'd be more concerned about are their plans for growth. The ski industry is volatile due to the weather, I don't see much growth from operations alone, it would have to come from real estate.



Agreed.  That S-1 better disclose their position on domes.


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## skiNEwhere (Oct 23, 2014)

5 bucks says they build a dome before they ever upgrade the summit triple at attitash


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## Quietman (Oct 23, 2014)

The *SEC Form* is a very interesting read and provides a lot of insight into the economics of ski area operations.


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 23, 2014)

> Peak Resorts has $204 million in assets, $175 million in long term debt (most of it at 10% interest), and $3.5 million in stockholders' equity.



Goodnight Gracie.


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 24, 2014)

Quietman said:


> *The SEC Form is a very interesting read* and provides a lot of insight into the economics of ski area operations.



You're right, here are my top-10 takeaways for those who are either too lazy, or not boring enough to enjoy reading SEC filings:

1) It's pretty telling who _isnt_ book running.
2) They're losing money & don't have a lot of cash.
3) They have a ton of debt.
4) With a few notable exceptions, they own mostly crummy little ski areas.
5) Why they plan on offering a quarterly dividend is completely beyond me.
6) They plan on raising lift ticket & season pass prices and call that a big component of their success.
7) They claim they intend to continue to acquire ski areas when it's a strategic fit (interesting given their current debt/equity).
8: For the 13/14 season, they got 33.1% of revenue on weekends & 24.4% of revenue during the 3 major holiday periods.
9) Lots of info here on what segments comprise what % of revenue and what items are what % of expenses (interesting stuff).
10) They're highly leveraged to Mount Snow from a top-line perspective (40%).  As Mount Snow goes, so too goes this company.


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## bigbob (Oct 24, 2014)

Some of those dinky areas have more revenue than Wildcat, which is 3rd from the bottom!


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## Savemeasammy (Oct 24, 2014)

I'm not sure if running ski areas with Wall St's best interests in mind, rather than skier/riders best interests, is a great idea...


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## VTKilarney (Oct 24, 2014)

Interest on the debt is over $11 per skier visit.


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## Tin (Oct 24, 2014)

After reading through it I'm more convinced the snow making system was put in at Wildcat to make it easier to sell.


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## yeggous (Oct 24, 2014)

Tin said:


> After reading through it I'm more convinced the snow making system was put in at Wildcat to make it easier to sell.



This is an interesting suggestion that I had not thought of, but it makes sense. You can't sell the train wreck that you had last year, so patch it up and offload it. The question becomes do you sell off Attitash too? They might be worth more as a package.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 24, 2014)

Cranmore seems to be on solid financial footing.  Maybe they'll step in, buy both areas and create a near monopoly on the MWV ski product.

I'd be psyched if Bretton Woods bought Wildcat as well.  Biggest complaint people have with BW is lack of challenging terrain.  Having Wildcat to offer would make sense for them.

I don't care who buys Attitash.  Just replace the damn triple chair.


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## Tin (Oct 24, 2014)

yeggous said:


> This is an interesting suggestion that I had not thought of, but it makes sense. You can't sell the train wreck that you had last year, so patch it up and offload it. The question becomes do you sell off Attitash too? They might be worth more as a package.



Before they even turn a light switch on they have $27k+ a month in debt payments. And only 64k visits? Is that number tickets sold or just people who show daily including pass holders?

Attitash makes them too much money, doesnt have a ton of debt.


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## MadMadWorld (Oct 24, 2014)

The line between running a successful ski area and closing/being sold seems to get smaller and smaller these days. It really wouldn't shock me to see any ownership go belly up. Smaller mountains only seem to last a few years these days and medium sized ski areas are running into more and more trouble.


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## VTKilarney (Oct 24, 2014)

The issue I see with Bretton Woods purchasing the property is that Bretton Woods is a resort that has a ski area.  I'm not sure if they want skiing to be their primary focus.


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## marcski (Oct 24, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> I'd be psyched if Bretton Woods bought Wildcat as well.  Biggest complaint people have with BW is lack of challenging terrain.  Having Wildcat to offer would make sense for them.



Then they can install a lift over Mt. Washington and connect the two ski areas. :beer:


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## MadMadWorld (Oct 24, 2014)

marcski said:


> Then they can install a lift over Mt. Washington and connect the two ski areas. :beer:



They should probably have a midstation at the top of Tuckerman


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## EPB (Oct 24, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> You're right, here are my top-10 takeaways for those who are either too lazy, or not boring enough to enjoy reading SEC filings:
> 
> 1) It's pretty telling who _isnt_ book running.
> 2) They're losing money & don't have a lot of cash.
> ...



Agreed. This was a great read. I'd love to see a map of the land they own at Attitash that they earmark for potential real estate development too.


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## Tin (Oct 24, 2014)

A lot of negatives but what they did with Crotched is impressive. Almost 100k visits last year and catching on. It could survive independently. If they went under someone would buy Crotched in a second.


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## EPB (Oct 24, 2014)

Savemeasammy said:


> I'm not sure if running ski areas with Wall St's best interests in mind, rather than skier/riders best interests, is a great idea...
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



I'd be more worried about who's running the place than big bad Wall Street.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 24, 2014)

VTKilarney said:


> The issue I see with Bretton Woods purchasing the property is that Bretton Woods is a resort that has a ski area.  I'm not sure if they want skiing to be their primary focus.



You would think that when Omni took over, but they've still maintained being one of, if not the first ski area to open for the season in the state and the second to last to close.  They also still blow a ton of snow.  

Skiing is definitely a HUGE focus for them still.


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## Domeskier (Oct 24, 2014)

eastern powder baby said:


> I'd be more worried about who's running the place than big bad Wall Street.



I'd be most worried about activist shareholders who try to put an end to any future trail expansion!


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## Tin (Oct 24, 2014)

I would view what Wildcat does with their new system as an indicator. If they go nuts early and it brings in the people they will sell it, if the visits don't come they're really really screwed.  If they don't go nuts with it then who knows, maybe just bad business.


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## VTKilarney (Oct 24, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> You would think that when Omni took over, but they've still maintained being one of, if not the first ski area to open for the season in the state and the second to last to close.  They also still blow a ton of snow.
> 
> Skiing is definitely a HUGE focus for them still.


My point was that blowing snow at Bretton Woods fills hotel rooms and condos.  Blowing snow at Wildcat does not.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 24, 2014)

Tin said:


> A lot of negatives but what they did with Crotched is impressive. Almost 100k visits last year and catching on. It could survive independently. If they went under someone would buy Crotched in a second.



The only thing holding Crotched back is the crap ass roads to get there.  It certainly isn't the skiing product.  That is fantastic for a little 900 vert hill.

Someone needs to convince the state to expand 101 West into a highway like the eastern half of the state.  That would be great for the economy in the Southwestern part of the state.


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## MadMadWorld (Oct 24, 2014)

Tin said:


> I would view what Wildcat does with their new system as an indicator. If they go nuts early and it brings in the people they will sell it, if the visits don't come they're really really screwed.  If they don't go nuts with it then who knows, maybe just bad business.



Have you been there?


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## noreasterbackcountry (Oct 24, 2014)

Tin said:


> A lot of negatives but what they did with Crotched is impressive. Almost 100k visits last year and catching on. It could survive independently. If they went under someone would buy Crotched in a second.



After discovering the Crotched sidecountry/slackcountry last year I'll be heading up there for my quick get-away ski days- versus Wa-wa.  Crotched is a little futher from MetroWest Boston... and the back roads make it a bit hairy in bad weather, but there's just much more fun factor up there.

Throw in the new Crotched Rocket... that place almost makes me forget about East Bowl.  Almost.


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## Tin (Oct 24, 2014)

noreasterbackcountry said:


> After discovering the Crotched sidecountry/slackcountry last year I'll be heading up there for my quick get-away ski days- versus Wa-wa.  Crotched is a little futher from MetroWest Boston... and the back roads make it a bit hairy in bad weather, but there's just much more fun factor up there.
> 
> Throw in the new Crotched Rocket... that place almost makes me forget about East Bowl.  Almost.



It is amazing. The opening of the West Ledges gets skied off quick but there are a lot of options down that not everyone knows about. The back and area around the Snakerun are not hit nearly as hard.


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## noreasterbackcountry (Oct 24, 2014)

Tin said:


> It is amazing. The opening of the West Ledges gets skied off quick but there are a lot of options down that not everyone knows about. The back and area around the Snakerun are not hit nearly as hard.



Yeah I was in there three days after a big storm last winter and still found untouched stuff with just a little schwacking.


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## Tin (Oct 24, 2014)

noreasterbackcountry said:


> Yeah I was in there three days after a big storm last winter and still found untouched stuff with just a little schwacking.



The biggest issue is kids or beginners getting in there an snow plowing all the snow off the rocks and ledges.


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## ThinkSnow (Oct 24, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> They should probably have a midstation at the top of Tuckerman



Midstation should be at the base of Tucks, and it should include a bar.


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## skiNEwhere (Oct 24, 2014)

ThinkSnow said:


> Midstation should be at the base of Tucks, and it should include a bar.



So I'm guessing there might be 3-5 days a season where that lift isn't on wind hold?


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## VTKilarney (Oct 24, 2014)

You people are proposing something much too simple.  

Here is how they should join the resorts:
A magic carpet that takes you to a shuttle bus that connects with the cog railway.  Once you get off the railway at the summit you transfer to either a mountain coaster or zip line to the base of Wildcat.


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## JimG. (Oct 24, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> The only thing holding Crotched back is the crap ass roads to get there.  It certainly isn't the skiing product.  That is fantastic for a little 900 vert hill.
> 
> Someone needs to convince the state to expand 101 West into a highway like the eastern half of the state.  That would be great for the economy in the Southwestern part of the state.



Then everyone will go there and all we'll hear about is how crowded it gets.


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## yeggous (Oct 24, 2014)

JimG. said:


> Then everyone will go there and all we'll hear about is how crowded it gets.



Crowded is a relative statement. This is New Hampshire we're talking about.


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## drjeff (Oct 24, 2014)

Tin said:


> I would view what Wildcat does with their new system as an indicator. If they go nuts early and it brings in the people they will sell it, if the visits don't come they're really really screwed.  If they don't go nuts with it then who knows, maybe just bad business.



Peak more than likely gives Wildcat a few years before any real consideration of selling. They've got of couple of their company wide young gun, rising stars there running it and now they seemingly have working infrastructure unlike last year


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## Highway Star (Oct 24, 2014)

ss20 said:


> Well, this doesn't sound good.  Can't say this is a surprise.
> 
> http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=174
> 
> ...



You can't run eastern ski areas with a 80% LTV (loan to value) mortgage at a 10% interest rate.  No way, not a chance.  These guys are hosed.


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## trackbiker (Oct 24, 2014)

I think this revenue summary shows how some of these little areas can be very profitable. I would bet their percentage of profit is much higher than the larger areas when you look at skier numbers and costs. Little 300 ft. Mad River OH is number 3 for revenue. :-o Wildcat is number 11 but that could be because of the problems they had last year.


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## Quietman (Oct 24, 2014)

Those #'s are for revenue, not net profit.  There is a big difference!

In the last couple of years they have invested over $4,000,000 at Crotched and Wildcat, above and beyond normal operating expenses, with yearly revenue of less than $8,000,000.  Going to be a while before that investment is paid back.


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## trackbiker (Oct 24, 2014)

Quietman said:


> Those #'s are for revenue, not net profit.  There is a big difference!



I realize that. I was just speculating. 

"I would *bet* their percentage of profit is much higher than the larger areas...."

I didn't see anything on the net profits (loss) for each area. But most of those little areas have to have relatively smaller costs when you look at snowmaking acres and that most of the lifts have been there for years.


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## Highway Star (Oct 24, 2014)

trackbiker said:


> I think this revenue summary shows how some of these little areas can be very profitable. I would bet their percentage of profit is much higher than the larger areas when you look at skier numbers and costs. Little 300 ft. Mad River OH is number 3 for revenue. :-o Wildcat is number 11 but that could be because of the problems they had last year.



Err....they have an overall yield of $60 per skier visit.   Mad River is like $43.50.........

Vail's is like $160.

Their operating profit margin is probably right around 30%, which is pretty good actually.


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## Tin (Oct 24, 2014)

Quietman said:


> Those #'s are for revenue, not net profit.  There is a big difference!
> 
> In the last couple of years they have invested over $4,000,000 at Crotched and Wildcat, above and beyond normal operating expenses, with yearly revenue of less than $8,000,000.  Going to be a while before that investment is paid back.



But Crotched will make it back and is continuing to grow. The same cannot be said about Wildcat imo.


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## HowieT2 (Oct 24, 2014)

Highway Star said:


> You can't run eastern ski areas with a 80% LTV (loan to value) mortgage at a 10% interest rate.  No way, not a chance.  These guys are hosed.



Isnt that the point of the ipo?  To pay off the debt (at least what's coming due in 4/16) and eliminate the personal guarantees of the principles.

Im surprised mt snow has only 468k skier visits/yr.


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## Brad J (Oct 24, 2014)

drjeff said:


> Peak more than likely gives Wildcat a few years before any real consideration of selling. They've got of couple of their company wide young gun, rising stars there running it and now they seemingly have working infrastructure unlike last year



May be it me but if last year was an indication of how there rising stars can run an area, then Peak Resorts are screwed!!


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## MadMadWorld (Oct 24, 2014)

Wildcat will land on their paws...no matter who owns them. It's Magic Mountain with better snowfall!


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## WWF-VT (Oct 25, 2014)

Quietman said:


> The *SEC Form* is a very interesting read and provides a lot of insight into the economics of ski area operations.



From the S-1

"Wildcat has garnered a reputation for strong spring skiing as it has had the latest closing date of any lift-serviced ski resort for the past eight seasons. "

That's news to me.


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## Edd (Oct 25, 2014)

WWF-VT said:


> From the S-1
> 
> "Wildcat has garnered a reputation for strong spring skiing as it has had the latest closing date of any lift-serviced ski resort for the past eight seasons. "
> 
> That's news to me.



I ski there regularly and, yeah, that sounds wrong.


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## Quietman (Oct 25, 2014)

WWF-VT said:


> From the S-1
> 
> "Wildcat has garnered a reputation for strong spring skiing as it has had the latest closing date of any lift-serviced ski resort for the past eight seasons. "
> 
> That's news to me.



It should read latest closing date in *NH*


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## machski (Oct 25, 2014)

This IPO and Peaks is talking about getting into EB-5 at Mount Snow too.  Good luck!


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## ss20 (Oct 25, 2014)

machski said:


> This IPO and Peaks is talking about getting into EB-5 at Mount Snow too.  Good luck!



They have already. Earlier this year they went the EB-5 route for funding their master plan


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## benski (Oct 25, 2014)

Quietman said:


> It should read latest closing date in *NH*


you should buy a share then suit them for fraud.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 25, 2014)

They should cut a deal with Vail.  

Vail takes Mt. Snow, Attitash and Wildcat, plus they eliminate Peaks debt at the smaller areas.  

Peaks gets to keep doing what they do best in running the smaller feeder areas free of debt, Vail gets into the Eastern market in a big way.   

We Northeast skiers score big by getting in on the Epic pass.


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## ss20 (Oct 25, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> They should cut a deal with Vail.
> 
> Vail takes Mt. Snow, Attitash and Wildcat, plus they eliminate Peaks debt at the smaller areas.
> 
> ...



I don't see that happening.  Vail wouldn't wanna touch Mount Snow's 50+ year old base area infrastructure.  They like things new and shiny.  I also don't know how keen they are on 2 resorts in rural NH far away from the airports of NYC and Boston that will take people to the big mountains out west.  

If anything, its more likely Vail would want some of the smaller ski areas Peak owns, since some are close to cities.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 25, 2014)

dude, we're talking perfect scenario for NE skiers and riders here.  work with me


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## ss20 (Oct 25, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> dude, we're talking perfect scenario for NE skiers and riders here.  work with me



Lol.  Vail will come to NE soon DHS.  My guess is they'll take a small hill by NYC or Boston.  Maybe they'll make a deal with Interwest and buy Stratton and Mountain Creek.  With Waterville's financial difficulties, already-made master plan, and village they're a good candidate too.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 25, 2014)

nope

they want Attitash and Wildcat.  

that's the perfect DHS scenario anyways.


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## yeggous (Oct 25, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> nope
> 
> they want Attitash and Wildcat.
> 
> that's the perfect DHS scenario anyways.



That is my dream.


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## steamboat1 (Oct 26, 2014)

Hostile takeover of Killington. POWDR will threaten to remove the lifts.


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## Brad J (Oct 26, 2014)

My dream for Wildcat is for a group of extremely wealthy skiers buy it from Peaks and form a skier owned area like MRG. Not worry about profit , just make a paradise of natural skiing for us.


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## doublediamond (Oct 26, 2014)

Tin said:


> But Crotched will make it back and is continuing to grow. The same cannot be said about Wildcat imo.



Wildcat will.  They will save boatloads of money with the new guns, and not having leaking/rupturing/freezing pipes.


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## bigbog (Oct 26, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> The only thing holding Crotched back is the crap ass roads to get there.  It certainly isn't the skiing product.  That is fantastic for a little 900 vert hill.
> 
> Someone needs to convince the state to expand 101 West into a highway like the eastern half of the state.  That would be great for the economy in the Southwestern part of the state.



Agree....  It would take a bit of time from Boston area(1980s) but used to snowshoe to some nice stuff(just getting into skiing:roll: then)...


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## Glenn (Oct 26, 2014)

Very interesting financials. Looks like a lot of expansion in a short amount of time. 

Wasn't there talk at another Peak Resort pass holder meeting of the Bluebird not delivering the skier visits they expected?  


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## Tin (Oct 26, 2014)

doublediamond said:


> Wildcat will.  They will save boatloads of money with the new guns, and not having leaking/rupturing/freezing pipes.



It doesn't matter what they save if they are not bringing in the revenue.


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 26, 2014)

Frankly with money being essentially _"free"_ right now, I'm surprised we haven't seen more in the way of ski area consolidation.


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## jerryg (Oct 26, 2014)

steamboat1 said:


> Hostile takeover of Killington. POWDR will threaten to remove the lifts.



As funny as that sounds due to the irony with PCMR, resorts like KMart, SR, and Okemo are prime for a Vail purchase... IF they had any interest in the east, which they have repeatedly said they don't. Granted, they said the same thing about Utah as well, but yes, they like to buy the resorts with infrastructure in good working condition. They already have plenty of resorts with massive skier visit numbers to continue to develop if they wanted to go that route, but unless the resorts if profiting in a big way with food, bev, and lodging, don't expect any expansion. Thus Wildcat would be out from the get go.


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## thetrailboss (Oct 26, 2014)

Quietman said:


> It should read latest closing date in *NH*



Minor detail 

And maybe it's been said, but Wildcat was on the market for a long time before and didn't budge. I doubt that many buyers will materialize this time around.


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## jerryg (Oct 26, 2014)

thetrailboss said:


> Minor detail 
> 
> And maybe it's been said, but Wildcat was on the market for a long time before and didn't budge. I doubt that many buyers will materialize this time around.
> 
> ...



I recall the recent spring that Wildcat tied with KMart for the latest closing, 2007 I think. Half the trails open and a super-fast lift to access it all. It was my intro to lapping with Snoseek and Bobr and a Sunday inclusion of Snowmonster. Good times had by all!


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## VTKilarney (Oct 26, 2014)

Wildcat can't have much real estate development potential, can it?  If that is the case a lot of potential purchasers will not be interested.


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## thetrailboss (Oct 26, 2014)

jerryg said:


> I recall the recent spring that Wildcat tied with KMart for the latest closing, 2007 I think. Half the trails open and a super-fast lift to access it all. It was my intro to lapping with Snoseek and Bobr and a Sunday inclusion of Snowmonster. Good times had by all!



Any day with those guys is a good one!

Nice to see you here jerryg.


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## thetrailboss (Oct 26, 2014)

VTKilarney said:


> Wildcat can't have much real estate development potential, can it?  If that is the case a lot of potential purchasers will not be interested.



Exactly.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 26, 2014)

VTKilarney said:


> Wildcat can't have much real estate development potential, can it?  If that is the case a lot of potential purchasers will not be interested.




There is no real estate to develop.

However, it does have excellent terrain, views, the most natural snow in New Hampshire and proximity to North Conway/Jackson etc. 

Snowmaking and day lodge upgrades could go a long way for the place.    It will never be a cash cow, but I think it has enough positive attributes that with smart investments, it can be profitable and sustain itself.  

One other thought I've had for Wildcat is to have a world class retail store.  A separate building from the base lodge with it's own parking out near the state highway as close to Joe Dodge as possible.  Sell world class high end hiking, climbing and ski gear.   Wildcat is really the only "commercial" business development up Pinkham Notch.  A lot of people go up there and have money.  It's just a matter of finding the right product mix to sell.


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## jerryg (Oct 26, 2014)

thetrailboss said:


> Any day with those guys is a good one!
> 
> Nice to see you here jerryg.



Thank you, sir. A couple years off and I'm ready to make life difficult for my buddies rippin' down the hills... Snoseek, we're gonna party soon, yo! I can't wait to get back to Mother's Burritos...


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## ThinkSnow (Oct 27, 2014)

Speaking of ASC.....

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20141027/NEWS02/141029145/-1/news


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 27, 2014)

ThinkSnow said:


> Speaking of ASC.....



Les Otten's in charge?   I think I have this figured out.

Basically the plan is to go deep into debt and use the money to make it appear to others that a successful turnaround is at play, until the debt bomb eventually explodes and weeds start growing.   I left out a few steps, but I'm guessing that'll be close to the outcome.


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## tree_skier (Oct 27, 2014)

So I just am looking for a little clarification.  All of the Les haters would like Someday Bigger to revert back to pre Les and have 3 T-bars and 9 trails???


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## deadheadskier (Oct 27, 2014)

tree_skier said:


> So I just am looking for a little clarification.  All of the Les haters would like Someday Bigger to revert back to pre Les and have 3 T-bars and 9 trails???



Qft

People can tease about him all day, but the guy has been as successful a ski area developer in New England ski history as anyone.


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## ThinkSnow (Oct 27, 2014)

He did a lot of good for Sugarbush-- improved snowmaking, added the Slidebrook Express, then sold the place.


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 27, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> People can tease about him all day, but *the guy has been as successful a ski area developer in New England ski history as anyone.*



It really depends on what your view of success is.   

 What I mean is, my guess is that if you could secure millions of dollars in financing to spend on.....almost whatever you wanted to, you too could build something that would likely appear to be "successful". 

 But if it blows up in your face due to the huge leverage which was required to create it in the first place, and then an outside entity has to purchase your creation out of bankruptcy, I wouldnt call that a success just because your creation "lives" under someone else's watch who purchased it for pennies on the dollar.


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## jerryg (Oct 27, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> It really depends on what your view of success is.
> 
> What I mean is, my guess is that if you could secure millions of dollars in financing to spend on.....almost whatever you wanted to, you too could build something that would likely appear to be "successful".
> 
> But if it blows up in your face due to the huge leverage which was required to create it in the first place, and then an outside entity has to purchase your creation out of bankruptcy, I wouldnt call that a success just because your creation "lives" under someone else's watch who purchased it for pennies on the dollar.



Which ski resorts were purchased out of bankruptcy? I will list the ski areas/resorts that were held by LBO Holdings, Ski LTD, or ASC and you put a check by the ones that were in bankruptcy. Were there mistakes made? Sure. Did some areas benefit from an infrastructure perspective more than others? Of course. Were some of the factors of the demise of ASC beyond LBO's control? Sure thing. If not for him spearheading the effort to get the Balsam's back to operational and sustainable, would the resort remain dormant? Most likely.
Here's the list of resorts:
Sunday River: 
Sugarloaf: 
Sugarbush:
Killington:
Mount Snow:
Haystack:
Cranmore:
Waterville Valley:
Attitash:
Pico: 
Steamboat:
Heavenly:
The Canyons:


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## deadheadskier (Oct 27, 2014)

Yup, Otten was a total failure

Let me guess BG.......if we were ever lucky enough to have you enter the ski resort business.......

You would interconnect Bolton, Stowe and Smuggs creating a resort rivaling Vail in size.  You would do this by negotiating a 1% interest rate loan through the state of Vermont as well as a drastically reduced property tax bill. State politicians would recognize you as the economic prophet that you are and want you on board to save the state's economy.  They'd handover their wallet and sweep Act 250 under the rug while doing it.  

Upon property acquisition, you would use your interstellar meteorology talents to predict an exact forecast for Gomez Mountain resort each year allowing you to pre-buy the precise quantity of diesel the resort will need at a deep discount.   This of course would only be necessary for the first few seasons as by summer 2017 you would negotiate a fracking contract with the state to extract the Mansfield ridges oil reserves to fully fuel the property.  With your new found wealth you'd buy out all the solar and wind loving hippies in the state and ship their equipment off to China. 

Sound about right?

Am I missing other subject areas where you are smarter than anyone who has ever lived?  :grin:


----------



## Edd (Oct 27, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> yup, otten was a total failure
> 
> let me guess bg.......if we were ever lucky enough to have you enter the ski resort business.......
> 
> ...



LOL. I want to be a Gomez Mountain homer.


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## MadMadWorld (Oct 27, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> Yup, Otten was a total failure
> 
> Let me guess BG.......if we were ever lucky enough to have you enter the ski resort business.......
> 
> ...



Sounds good to me. Sign me up. Although Bolton Valley is a bit of a stretch for an interconnect. I would just put a T-bar up Birthday Bowl.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 27, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> Sounds good to me. Sign me up. Although Bolton Valley is a bit of a stretch for an interconnect. I would just put a T-bar up Birthday Bowl.



See, this is why we need BG in charge and not you.  You don't have the vision my friend.   There's a 4 or so mile ridge of mountains between Stowe and Bolton, all capable of offering 1000+ vert pods.   Steeple trail on Dewey?  On the trail map brother.  We're talking a mega-resort here man.  Not some wimpy Killingtonesque poverty resort!


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 27, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> Yup, *Otten was a total failure*



The above is far closer to the truth than what you (apparently) believe.  

 If you take on so much debt and leverage yourself to death........to the eventual DOWNFALL of an entire friggin' company....literally......., that is not "success".   

It's nothing more than smoke and mirrors that was fueled by massive debt & spending.  Buy, Buy, Buy, Grow, Grow, Grow!!!!! Though the fact we can find people in 2014 that strongly believe otherwise speaks volumes to the current state of our troubles.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 27, 2014)

You're right, I know nothing of ski resort success.  I'm really trying to learn though.

I'm just happy you have the time of day to share your knowledge here in between phone calls with Warren Buffet and Janet Yellen.  How's my boy Greenspan doing lately?  Next time you speak with him, tell him I asked "What's up homey."  Thanks


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 27, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> You're right, I know nothing of ski resort success.  I'm really trying to learn though.



Les Otten took an entity public to the tune of a few hundred millions dollars.....borrowed more....spent a crapload of money..........was forced out as CEO due to the financial trainwreck seen rumbling down the tracks, and his company was literally *DELISTED* by the New York Stock Exchange, essentially worthless.

By the way, this all occurred in the span of about 3 or 4 years IIRC.  There is no possible stretch of the imagination that you can call this a "success".  I'm dumbfounded.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 27, 2014)

I'm aware of how things ended.  That's not always how you measure success.  I personally know people who had great jobs working for ASC during their heyday; life altering jobs from good compensation.  We've all seen where those resorts are today compared to when he started in the late 70s.  No man has changed the landscape of New England skiing more.  A lot of people benefited greatly from the work he did.  I know I have regarding my on snow experiences.

Sometimes the greats gamble and lose.  Hell, Donald Trump is worth how many billion?  How many times has he filed chapter 11 due to bad gambles and other market conditions?   

Before it's too late, you should contact the Balsams people and let them know they got the wrong guy and you're available for a steep price.  I'd be happy to write you a reference letter.


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 27, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> I'm aware of how things ended.  That's not always how you measure success.



I'm glad we can agree that losing hundreds of millions of dollars (literally) of other people's money in just a few years (literally) and being forced to quit isnt a "measure" of success.   So I don't see why you attacked my opinion so aggressively given this new-found agreement.

And I'm glad to hear you and your friends had fun in the 90s.  Must not have had any money tied up in SKI!


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## deadheadskier (Oct 27, 2014)

Dude, I'm just having a little fun here.  relax

If you want me to say, "Yes, BG, you are right. You are ALWAYS right."   Well, there you go.


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## Edd (Oct 27, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> Dude, I'm just having a little fun here.  relax



No time to relax when people are in need of a financial education. You've been schooled, buddy.


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## joshua segal (Oct 27, 2014)

I don't want to come across as an apologist for Les Otten, but no one held a gun to anyone's head saying you have to buy stock in ASC.

If Les Otten leaves something positive behind
- The Grand Hotels as a paradigm for on-site lodging.  It's a different sport when you don't have to start your car, don't have shovel out your car; don't have to drive and don't have to deal with the base lodge.  You get up, walk out the door, put on your skis and go.  No cafeterias, no public rest rooms, etc.
- ASC really pushed the HS-Detachables which are lovely for the guests and are now industry normative.


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## Edd (Oct 27, 2014)

joshua segal said:


> If Les Otten leaves something positive behind
> - The Grand Hotels as a paradigm for on-site lodging.



That's due to him? Nobody had central hotels like that before he was in the industry? Sounds weird.


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## Tin (Oct 27, 2014)

BG if I hit Powerball or Megamillions I will buy Tenney, put in a HSQ, and give you a few million to build it up. Seriously


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## jerryg (Oct 27, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'm glad we can agree that losing hundreds of millions of dollars (literally) of other people's money in just a few years (literally) and being forced to quit isnt a "measure" of success.   So I don't see why you attacked my opinion so aggressively given this new-found agreement.
> 
> And I'm glad to hear you and your friends had fun in the 90s.  Must not have had any money tied up in SKI!



FWIW: I don't care for LBO. I think he has a huge ego and have no financial stake with him whatsoever, but DHS is a smart guy that knows eastern skiing, so I figured that since you're so biased against LBO, I'd try to help balance the sheet, so to speak...

Now to your points - unresearched and not supported with any information. (I only say that because in this subject, dates really do matter. Additionally, understanding why he failed and when he failed is important, too.) 

Very few people had money tied up in SKI - It was a privately held company. It wasn't till this millenium that ASC came to be... A couple really bad snow years at the wrong time can mean life and death in this industry, and when they happened at the time they did, ASC couldn't recover, the damage was done. LBO hedged on getting people to the mountains and not people like you or me. He had enormous success with this all the way up to that IPO and then things went south. I personally think he invested too much in real estate and that was his downfall.

As I'm sure you know, that IPO was after the 90's and it was after SKI had changed the face of eastern (And some western) skiing forever. Was it in a good way? Debatable. Some people like lifts like Slidebrook or the other HSQs at the Bush. Some people like being able to ski Bear Mountain. Some people like the 7 peaks he developed at SR. Some people like that South Lake Tahoe is now linked to Heavenly Mountain Resort via the gondola - unlike it had been for 40+ years. Some people like the amount of new HS lifts, strategically placed FGs and peaks added there and to resorts like Steamboat and the Canyons.

The interesting thing about all the resorts I mentioned above is that they are all currently profitable ski resorts. So did LBO owning them at one time or another, help them or hurt them?  

Interestingly, you mention having fun with other people's money and you mention places like Stowe. A wonderful mountain with great lifts, unnecessary over-the-road gondolas, and some resort-built accommodations that have helped drive the price of a lift ticket in the east far higher than it should be... Who was footing the bill for all of that?


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## ss20 (Oct 27, 2014)

The pros of ASC outnumber the cons.  ASC and Otten BUILT Sunday River in less than two decades and The Canyons in one decade.  90% of those mountain's infrastructure is from Les.  ASC started the "epic Pass" type of season passes by offering a bunch of mountains for a ridiculously low price.  Look how well that's worked for Vail Resorts, and to a lesser extent, the Boyne and Peak resorts back here in the East.  All the expansions that they made were permanent.  You can lose money but you can't lose terrain (well, unless you're Killington).  Look at New England Ski History and you'll see all the crazy schemes for Sugarbush, Attitash, and Killington.  They would've been double the size they are now if Otten could've kept funding going.


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## MadMadWorld (Oct 27, 2014)

The ASC pass was the shit in college. I think it was 199 (299 at the most) if I remember correctly.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 27, 2014)

jerryg

I appreciate the back up man, but we're wrong.  BG has spoken.


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## tree_skier (Oct 27, 2014)

Now that I got this revved up.  I will say I am not a fan of Les Otten as a person.  However he did have a major impact in the ski industry especially in the east.  Also not to say ASC wasn't headed for disaster.  What broke the camels back was a missed debt payment (that's what gets most companies).  Now what caused that was a missed construction deadline at the Canyons.  All the units were sold the money in the bank but the Units not finished so the cash was untouchable.  Poof missed payments, penalties, etc and the rest is history.


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## Edd (Oct 27, 2014)

jerryg said:


> DHS is a smart guy...?



Not really agreeing with this.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 27, 2014)

Why I outta....  . .


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## drjeff (Oct 27, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> Qft
> 
> People can tease about him all day, but the guy has been as successful a ski area developer in New England ski history as anyone.



Agree 100% 

Sure he's a controversial figure in the history of the ski industry (especially the New England ski industry) but without a doubt he's one of the top if not the top figure in the last 30yrs who changed the ski industry

 Whether that change was a good or a bad thing is 100% up for debate


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## Not Sure (Oct 27, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> Why I outta....  . .



I think there's gona be a ski Oft.


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 27, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> jerryg
> 
> *I appreciate the back up man, but we're wrong.*  BG has spoken.



I'm sure you'll love this, but he actually is wrong.   SKI went public in 1997, I remember it very well as I know someone from college who was involved.   

And yes, a lot of people DID lose money on the public (not private) company, as they do with any catastrophe that befalls a publicly traded company, and the little guys usually get hurt the worst.  

The smart money (hedge funds & mutual funds) typically find the exits before the complete implosion.  In fact, when a lifestyle issue like SKI goes "kaboom", it's usually much worse from the retail standpoint than when some business involved in something esoteric busts, because you get a lot of "investors" (term used loosely) who put their money in it because they like something, in this case, skiing.  That said, joshua segal is absolutely correct on this, caveat emptor - nobody forced them to put their money into an irresponsibly run ski company.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 27, 2014)

Well, I'm quite grateful that LBO ran his company so irresponsibly.  I've enjoyed his infrastructure improvements every year for the past 30 seasons. His cheap season passes were an ullrsend when I had less disposable income.  

Side story; my resort marketing and sales professor at UVM was a buddy of LBO's from college.  He said he used to find Les at the bar drawing ski trail maps on cocktail napkins.  Les would tell him that someday he was going to own the largest Ski resort company in the country.  Pretty amazing that by age 30 he owned his own ski area and achieved his goal by his 40s while overseeing some of the most massive terrain and infrastructure expansion in the history of the industry.

.....one person here apparently doesn't find that at all impressive.


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## jerryg (Oct 27, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'm sure you'll love this, but he actually is wrong.   SKI went public in 1997, I remember it very well as I know someone from college who was involved.



You're right. I was wrong about the IPO date as SKI did go public in 1997 and was doing fine, it was the merger that created ASC that created a different stock offering and then the ship went downhill. The SKI IPO was small and the stock never did well, but the real trouble for LBO wasn't until after 2001, which is when the company started to divest and was delisted in 2002. Oak Hill joined the fold in 1999 and threw in $150 million and was then the ones calling the shots. LBO was forced to resign as CEO in 2001. He was not, however, forced off the BOD until 2007. It could be argued that the company direction under BJ Fair was just as much to blame than anything LBO did. 

There are so many reasons that the company failed and obviously they took on too much debt, but like has been said and you agreed, people who invested, did so on their own and under their own free will. My real point in all this was to point out that the resorts involved have for the most part, done quite well. I think you mentioned that they were purchased out of bankruptcy, but this simply isn't the case. Whether they were sold off for less than their value is speculation at best as the market will dictate that.

I just think that for anyone to not appreciate that LBO did some great things for the ski industry, is unfortunate. There was a lot of innovation during those years before the eventual downfall and I'd be interested to meet someone who lost their livelihood based on their portfolio including S-K-I. I doubt any of it's investors felt their personal wallets get pinched. Heck, if you're buying stock in the ski industry, you're asking for trouble.


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## EPB (Oct 27, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> Well, I'm quite grateful that LBO ran his company so irresponsibly.  I've enjoyed his infrastructure improvements every year for the past 30 seasons.



BG - this it the type of logic I have to deal with with respect to those in favor of a state owned and operated Cannon... In all seriousness, LBO certainly raised the bar snowmaking and lift system-wise and the rest of the industry was forced to keep up. So from a quality of skiing product perspective, he left his mark. That does not, however, negate or excuse the fact that he and his company went down in flames about as hard as anyone, especially absent of a serious scandal or fraud.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 27, 2014)

Bit off more than he can chew, no one is arguing against that.

His legacy remains.  How many 100s of jobs at Sunday River exist today that wouldn't be there without his influence?  Same goes for Attitash and the expansion he did there.  Canyons?  Heavenly?

As has been pointed out many times in this thread, every single one of the former ASC resorts are still around and doing well.  Most haven't done nearly as much in the way of expansion as what he accomplished.  So, it's hard to say if all these areas would be nearly as successful as they are today had he never been involved. 

I'd put Les's resume against any member of this forum that's for damn sure.


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## doublediamond (Oct 27, 2014)

Tin said:


> It doesn't matter what they save if they are not bringing in the revenue.



With no real estate development possible, if Wildcat was truly running in the red, the old owner would have closed it long ago.  Since Peak bought it, it has combined management costs with Attitash, which obviously improves the bottom line, and they have made massive snowmaking efficiency/pipe improvements, which means they can either make more snow for the same amount of money, or they can make the same amount of snow for far less.  The HKDs and SnowLogics are far far more efficient than the Ratnik ground guns they used to run.  Revenues don't matter.  Profit does.  And the summer improvements heavily improve their profit margin.  

They will always need to rely on diesel compressors unless PSNH forks over money to improve the electric lines through the notch.


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## machski (Oct 27, 2014)

Being a smaller resort and held by ASC for a very brief window, Cranmore benefitted big time.  They got the Snowmobile Express quad, SR type snow guns which did wonders at the time for their snowmaking among other pluses.  Without the ASC options, I'm not sure Cranmore would be on the trajectory it is today (could very well be collecting cob webs instead)


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 27, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> Well,* I'm quite grateful that LBO ran his company so irresponsibly.  I've enjoyed his infrastructure improvements every year for the past 30 seasons..........one person here apparently doesn't find that at all impressive.*



I'll make you a deal. 

 You give me $200,000,000, and I'll build you the most impressive hotdog restaurant this side of the Mississippi.  

I'm not going to promise you that the company wont be financially crippled and nearly bankrupt 5 years from now, but the heavy infrastructure and beautiful real estate in my dead hotdog company will still have plenty of value, so it will still be there long after I piss your $200,000,000 away, because somebody else will buy it for far less.

Imagine all the people who will be "grateful" that I destroyed shareholder equity.


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## machski (Oct 27, 2014)

BG, I seriously doubt that LBO will make the same mistakes again.  Another thing he had in the Balsams venture is that NH politics want him to succeed in this venture given how devastated that region of NH is jobwise.  I'm sure The Donald has learned a thing or 2 from his previous failures.  LBO did great when he kept things smaller in terms of # of resorts.  He was really brilliant with 1 in his portfolio financially for what, a decade and a half?!


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 27, 2014)

eastern powder baby said:


> *BG - this it the type of logic I have to deal with*



Apparently the massive destruction of money is a "success" as long as something I enjoy is created by it.



machski said:


> BG, I* seriously doubt that LBO will make the same mistakes again.*



He's already been quoted as trying to line up something like $100,000,000. :-o

Granted interest rates are historically low right now, but still, *that's a big number* for a part of New Hampshire that's known to be difficult from a competition/business standpoint etc...


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## doublediamond (Oct 27, 2014)

IIRC, ASC was cash-positive before consideration of debt payments.  Les Otten simply over-expanded too quickly during the economic and real estate boom in the '90s.  That's a very eerie similarity to Peaks, which is cash-positive before debt and facing 11% debt on Mount Snow.  That kind of interest rate is unheard of these days.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 27, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'll make you a deal.
> 
> You give me $200,000,000, and I'll build you the most impressive hotdog restaurant this side of the Mississippi.
> 
> ...




Did you buy your first ski resort at 30 years old and grow it from one of the smallest in New England to the second largest????  I'm not asking you to own the largest ski resort company, let's just start with one ski area. 

If you have that on your resume (shit, with the game you talk, one would think you built Whistler Blackhomb from scratch with your bare hands), then I might entertain you for an interview.


----------



## deadheadskier (Oct 27, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Apparently the massive destruction of money is a "success" as long as something I enjoy is created by it.



hundreds of jobs still around because of LBO.  that's a fact you can't deny

Sorry the gamblers on Wall Street lost on that bet.  My heart really bleeds for those poor investors who were so smart as to bet on skiing.


----------



## Tin (Oct 27, 2014)

doublediamond said:


> With no real estate development possible, if Wildcat was truly running in the red, the old owner would have closed it long ago.  Since Peak bought it, it has combined management costs with Attitash, which obviously improves the bottom line, and they have made massive snowmaking efficiency/pipe improvements, which means they can either make more snow for the same amount of money, or they can make the same amount of snow for far less.  The HKDs and SnowLogics are far far more efficient than the Ratnik ground guns they used to run.  Revenues don't matter.  Profit does.  And the summer improvements heavily improve their profit margin.
> 
> They will always need to rely on diesel compressors unless PSNH forks over money to improve the electric lines through the notch.



 They won't make anything if they get only 64,000 visits again. If the people are not coming then all the cost saving measures in the world don't matter.


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## machski (Oct 27, 2014)

I wonder what BG thinks of the commercial airline industry??


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 27, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> *Did you buy your first ski resort at 30 years old and grow it from one of the smallest in New England to the second largest????*  I'm not asking you to own the largest ski resort company, let's just start with one ski area.



No, but then I didnt blow $200,000,000 shareholder equity in 2.5 years either.  

Honestly, I'm not sure what the deal is with your infatuation with this guy, but I guess it's safe to say you don't have a, _"Less Otten, More Skiing" _bumper sticker on your car.



deadheadskier said:


> hundreds of jobs still around because of LBO.  that's a fact you can't deny



People will still work at my hotdog stands too, what's your point?  I'm not sure you recognize this, but by the very logic you're expressing here, anyone who swindles or can raise such a MASSIVE sum of money that there's significant residual value in something after it "blows up" due to its' immense size - is a success.   

 That is a completely bizarre viewpoint.


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 27, 2014)

Getting back to the Peaks IPO this thread is supposed to be about, do not be surprised if that never comes to fruition and the IPO gets yanked.


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## Tin (Oct 27, 2014)

Ahhh...The classic "back to the point". Even Bill O ' Reilly would be impressed with your mad rhetoric skillz.


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## VTKilarney (Oct 28, 2014)

doublediamond said:


> .  That's a very eerie similarity to Peaks, which is cash-positive before debt and facing 11% debt on Mount Snow.  That kind of interest rate is unheard of these days.


Is it?


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## VTKilarney (Oct 28, 2014)

This debate is a reflection of a difference in values.  One side favors infrastructure that they can take advantage of.  The other favors economic growth.  Both sides are correct as far as their own preferences are concerned.  The mistake the infrastructure camp is making is assuming that the hundreds of millions of dollars that were lost could not have been put to a more efficient use.  Or, that the infrastructure itself could not have been created more efficiently.  If you are a fan of efficient markets, Otten is not your poster boy.  If you are a fan of getting it done no matter the cost, he is.

Frankly, Stenger has some characteristics of a mini-Otten.


----------



## VTKilarney (Oct 28, 2014)

One other thought. Was Stenger's expansion good overall for the northeast?  Did it result in the closure of places like Tenney Mountain?  Did it create an arms race that had a net overall negative impact?   We're jobs really created, or just shifted?  

I'm just thinking out loud.


----------



## Edd (Oct 28, 2014)

VTKilarney said:


> This debate is a reflection of a difference in values.  One side favors infrastructure that they can take advantage of.  The other favors economic growth.  Both sides are correct as far as their own preferences are concerned.  The mistake the infrastructure camp is making is assuming that the hundreds of millions of dollars that were lost could not have been put to a more efficient use.  Or, that the infrastructure itself could not have been created more efficiently.  If you are a fan of efficient markets, Otten is not your poster boy.  If you are a fan of getting it done no matter the cost, he is.
> 
> Frankly, Stenger has some characteristics of a mini-Otten.



Good post.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Oct 28, 2014)

VTKilarney said:


> This debate is a reflection of a difference in values.  One side favors infrastructure that they can take advantage of.  The other favors economic growth.  Both sides are correct as far as their own preferences are concerned.  The mistake the infrastructure camp is making is assuming that the hundreds of millions of dollars that were lost could not have been put to a more efficient use.  Or, that the infrastructure itself could not have been created more efficiently.  If you are a fan of efficient markets, Otten is not your poster boy.  If you are a fan of getting it done no matter the cost, he is.



Well stated.



VTKilarney said:


> One other thought. Was Stenger's expansion good overall for the northeast?  Did it result in the closure of places like Tenney Mountain?  Did it create an arms race that had a net overall negative impact?   We're jobs really created, or just shifted?



My position on that is crystal clear.  The artificial monkeying with economic markets, especially small generally closed markets like n.VT, is a very dangerous thing that almost invariably has negative unintended consequences.   As for the jobs created metric hitting their mark (which is the entire intended point of this program BTW)?   I dont even think the ardent Jay Peak fanboys really believe that any longer.  Seasonal, migrational, "_would you like fries with that"_ jobs dont count.

EDIT:  Ehhh,,,,we already have much of this Stenger conversation in the JP/EB-5 thread though.....should try to keep this thread about Peaks and its' specific issues IMO.


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## Domeskier (Oct 28, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> hundreds of jobs still around because of LBO.  that's a fact you can't deny
> 
> Sorry the gamblers on Wall Street lost on that bet.  My heart really bleeds for those poor investors who were so smart as to bet on skiing.



The money lost could have created many hundreds or even thousands of additional jobs if it had been properly managed.  But yeah - who cares about the loss of those jobs when we can laugh about rich people losing some money.


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## ss20 (Dec 10, 2014)

First car to derail in this sure-to-be loooooooong train wreck:

http://http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=198



> Just two and a half weeks after its IPO, Peak Resorts (NASDAQ: SKIS) has announced it will pay a cash dividend to shareholders. 13.75 cents per share will be paid on February 20, 2015. As of December 10, shares have dropped $1.38 since the IPO. Current market capital is $106.54 million.
> 
> The surprise cash payout comes despite having $175 million in long term debt (most of it at 10% interest).


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## snoseek (Dec 10, 2014)

I'm kinda dumb about Economics but if shares are dropping is it normal to pay a dividend?


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## ss20 (Dec 10, 2014)

snoseek said:


> I'm kinda dumb about Economics but if shares are dropping is it normal to pay a dividend?



No idea, but I do know its bad that shares are down 15% within the first month of a company going public, with peak ski season right around the corner.


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## joshua segal (Dec 10, 2014)

snoseek said:


> I'm kinda dumb about Economics but if shares are dropping is it normal to pay a dividend?


The price of the shares have nothing to do with declaring a dividend.  Profitability does.  As far as I know, ASC never paid a dividend!

GM continued to pay dividends when both their stock price and earnings were in the tank - and many banks who were losing billions during the meltdown, continued to pay symbolic dividends.

All-in-all, I see it as a good sign.


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## snoseek (Dec 10, 2014)

I guess this is how Vail Resorts enters the East Coast market...


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 10, 2014)

Holy crap, this thing actually made it to market?

Another sure-fire sign that we're near the top.  I moved partially to cash a few weeks ago.  Don't even care if the market goes up all 2015.  Also boosted a levered short position a little bit.


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## bobbutts (Dec 10, 2014)

BG's grumbling only makes me like Otten that much more.  I was an ASC fanboy in HS and College


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## BenedictGomez (Dec 10, 2014)

snoseek said:


> I'm kinda dumb about Economics but if shares are dropping *is it normal to pay a dividend?*



No.  But in this particular instance?  I definitely view it as unusual. 

   I'm a little perplexed frankly, and I don't see any plausible argument on the "pro" side of this being an intelligent use of cash in their situation.   My speculation is that Peak believes they need to offer the divident to lend a level of support to their stock, because frankly, they know it's not a great investment.


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## yeggous (Dec 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> No.  But in this particular instance?  I definitely view it as unusual.
> 
> I'm a little perplexed frankly, and I don't see any plausible argument on the "pro" side of this being an intelligent use of cash in their situation.   My speculation is that Peak believes they need to offer the divident to lend a level of support to their stock, because frankly, they know it's not a great investment.



This.


Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone mobile app


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## Higgl (Dec 11, 2014)

I for one REALLY don't want to see Peak Resorts fail. Think what you want about Mount Snow, but Peak has turned Wildcat around to a degree I never though possible this season, given it's early yet. I'm a huge fan of their success with Crotched too. I like the moves Stenger has made overall. He's investing in the industry, which until literally this summer, many owners had not been investing in as seen by the significant lack of lift upgrades from 2005 to 2013. I don't believe the successful resorts fifteen years from now are going to be the ones who sat still during the early 2000s.


----------



## Higgl (Dec 11, 2014)

Though this news turn of events with Peak and the IPO has me worried... Hence the reason I'm on here wailing that I don't want to see Peak implode because it's looking decently probable right now


----------



## yeggous (Dec 11, 2014)

Higgl said:


> Though this news turn of events with Peak and the IPO has me worried... Hence the reason I'm on here wailing that I don't want to see Peak implode because it's looking decently probable right now



I hear you. The reason that I worry is the same reason that I love Crotched and Wildcat. They have great snow, fast lifts, and no crowds. Neither has lodging, fancy restaurants, or lots of retail. I just don't see how they make money. Actually I might believe that Crotched makes money given it's ability to bring in revenue from night skiing. Wildcat, on the other hand, I don't get. My only guess is that it is being operated as a loss leader to drive more business for Attitash. It gives Peak Resorts and an early and late season base of operations to help sell season passes and save having to operate Attitash with its higher overhead costs. It also provides a marketing advantage to differentiate Attitash over the competition, or at least it used to until the advent of the White Mountain Superpass.


----------



## joshua segal (Dec 11, 2014)

yeggous said:


> ... Actually I might believe that Crotched makes money given it's ability to bring in revenue from night skiing. ...


While Crotched does an excellent night skiing business, Crotched has accessibility to major population centers. Greater Manchester/Nashua Metropolitan Area is over 500,000 people,  Keene is nearby to the west and it's just over an hour for the northern MA suburbs.  One of the largest mistakes of the pre-Peak Resorts Crotched Mountain was their push on real estate both on the East side and West sides.  Peak Resorts recognizes that their business is skiing and not real estate development.  ASC got into trouble when they stressed the real estate business and forgot (or sublimated) that they were in the skiing business.


----------



## Smellytele (Dec 11, 2014)

joshua segal said:


> While Crotched does an excellent night skiing business, Crotched has accessibility to major population centers. Greater Manchester/Nashua Metropolitan Area is over 500,000 people,  Keene is nearby to the west and it's just over an hour for the northern MA suburbs.  One of the largest mistakes of the pre-Peak Resorts Crotched Mountain was their push on real estate both on the East side and West sides.  Peak Resorts recognizes that their business is skiing and not real estate development.  ASC got into trouble when they stressed the real estate business and forgot (or sublimated) that they were in the skiing business.



Everyone I seem to speak to always has the same complaint about The Crotch - No easy way to get there. Too many back roads. They say it is easier to get to Sunapee or Pats even though they are further North.


----------



## Newpylong (Dec 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Holy crap, this thing actually made it to market?
> 
> Another sure-fire sign that we're near the top.  I moved partially to cash a few weeks ago.  Don't even care if the market goes up all 2015.  Also boosted a levered short position a little bit.



You moved partially to cash? Are you a prepper too?

A sound portfolio doesn't have all eggs in one basket. You have a mix of stock, bonds and cash, growth & income, aggressive and aggressive growth, etc and so on. Market trends are cyclical and if you are smart about your investments you don't need to have a safe full of cash to survive the ruts. That is just wasting investment opportunities.

Back to topic, paying a dividend on such a rocky financial footing and early IPO is ridiculous in my opinion. I don't want Peaks to fail - they have done a lot of positives here.


----------



## vermonter44 (Dec 11, 2014)

The dividend is essentially them paying their executive board , who own around 40% of the shares currently


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 11, 2014)

Newpylong said:


> *You moved partially to cash? Are you a prepper too?*
> 
> A sound portfolio doesn't have all eggs in one basket. You have a mix of stock, bonds and cash, growth & income, aggressive and aggressive growth, etc and so on. Market trends are cyclical and if you are smart about your investments you don't need to have a safe full of cash to survive the ruts. That is just wasting investment opportunities.



No, I'm not a prepper. 

 But I am someone who used to work professionally in institutional equity investing (that means I dealt with stocks with hedge funds & mutual funds) on one of the largest trade floors on the planet, so I'd like to think I have at least some partial semblance of a clue. 

 Given you don't understand that investment professionals and well-versed "civilians" move partially to cash occasionally as part of an intentional defensive strategy, and/or keep a partial cash reserve on-hand earmarked for opportunities that pop-up in market declines, then you know far less about investing than you apparently think you do given your above post.


----------



## yeggous (Dec 11, 2014)

vermonter44 said:


> The dividend is essentially them paying their executive board , who one around 40% of the shares currently



Good point.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 11, 2014)

vermonter44 said:


> *The dividend is essentially them paying their executive board *



That's certainly the cynical way of looking at things, and a possibility, if you look at their top holders list there are a few people (not many) for whom that would be a decent chunk of cash.

I really think it has more to do with attempting to support the stock though.  Your current breakeven on the payout is roughly $7.14 per share, which represents > 20% decline from deal offering.  Heck, given the cold winter and expected healthy season, it might not be bad a a short-term trade.


----------



## deadheadskier (Dec 11, 2014)

joshua segal said:


> ASC got into trouble when they stressed the real estate business and forgot (or sublimated) that they were in the skiing business.



Disagree.  

ASC took on massive debt and expanded their skiing product first in hopes of selling real estate second.  In comparison to a more successful companies like Vail who did the exact opposite.  They sold real estate first and used profits from that to improve skiing infrastructure.   Okemo did the same here in the east.  They packed their slopes with condos before expanding the ski area.  There's not a lot of money to be made in ski resort operations.  There's a ton of money to be made in real estate.  You focus on the real estate first.  ASC didn't do that and went belly up for it.  I bet the same happens with Peaks in the long run unless they have some major real estate plays in the works at Mt. Snow and Attitash.


----------



## deadheadskier (Dec 11, 2014)

Smellytele said:


> Everyone I seem to speak to always has the same complaint about The Crotch - No easy way to get there. Too many back roads. They say it is easier to get to Sunapee or Pats even though they are further North.



Time wise it's the same to get to Crotched from the Manchester area as Pat's.  I think people get frustrated because they have to driver slower to do it.  Honestly?  I prefer the drive to Crotched over Pat's.  I enjoy driving through old bucolic New England.   Goffstown, New Boston and Francestown are some of the most beautiful communities in the State.  The only time I get pissed is when getting stuck behind someone going 35 in a 50 mph zone, which unfortunately happens almost every time I drive to Crotched. :lol:


----------



## Smellytele (Dec 11, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> Time wise it's the same to get to Crotched from the Manchester area as Pat's.  I think people get frustrated because they have to driver slower to do it.  Honestly?  I prefer the drive to Crotched over Pat's.  I enjoy driving through old bucolic New England.   Goffstown, New Boston and Francestown are some of the most beautiful communities in the State.  The only time I get pissed is when getting stuck behind someone going 35 in a 50 mph zone, which unfortunately happens almost every time I drive to Crotched. :lol:


New Boston and Francestown are fine. Goffstown is a hole.


----------



## deadheadskier (Dec 11, 2014)

You think so?  The part of it that you drive through to get to Crotched is super nice.  Nice old Victorian homes.  I've only seen that part though.


----------



## Newpylong (Dec 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> No, I'm not a prepper.
> 
> But I am someone who used to work professionally in institutional equity investing (that means I dealt with stocks with hedge funds & mutual funds) on one of the largest trade floors on the planet, so I'd like to think I have at least some partial semblance of a clue.
> 
> Given you don't understand that investment professionals and well-versed "civilians" move partially to cash occasionally as part of an intentional defensive strategy, and/or keep a partial cash reserve on-hand earmarked for opportunities that pop-up in market declines, then you know far less about investing than you apparently think you do given your above post.



Fair enough, this bitch slap was well deserved.

What floor or fund did you work at? I build the back-end that they use for trading, OMS, CMS, etc.   

PS - Smellytele - if you think Goffstown, NH is a hole apparently you haven't needed a shovel often. Nothing wrong with that town at all. I love the drive to Crotched, though I can see why some wouldn't. If you get behind someone slow you're screwed.


----------



## Smellytele (Dec 11, 2014)

Newpylong said:


> Fair enough, this bitch slap was well deserved.
> 
> What floor or fund did you work at? I build the back-end that they use for trading, OMS, CMS, etc.
> 
> PS - Smellytele - if you think Goffstown, NH is a hole apparently you haven't needed a shovel often. Nothing wrong with that town at all. I love the drive to Crotched, though I can see why some wouldn't. If you get behind someone slow you're screwed.



I have been living in the area and around southern NH for my whole life and Goffstown is not a very lovely town.  Maybe you are used to holes that are deeper...


----------



## deadheadskier (Dec 11, 2014)

Interesting.  I had no idea based upon driving through.  Goffstown just isn't on the list of NH town's I've heard people refer to as holes.  Manchester, Nashua and Rochester are the NH town names I hear most often in that regard.  And though I've jabbed Manchester here, in reality all of those towns are like Beverly Hills in comparison to some other parts of the country.  I was out in Flint, MI for business a few weeks ago.  I felt like I was in another country.


----------



## Smellytele (Dec 11, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> Interesting.  I had no idea based upon driving through.  Goffstown just isn't on the list of NH town's I've heard people refer to as holes.  Manchester, Nashua and Rochester are the NH town names I hear most often in that regard.  And though I've jabbed Manchester here, in reality all of those towns are like Beverly Hills in comparison to some other parts of the country.  I was out in Flint, MI for business a few weeks ago.  I felt like I was in another country.



Well those are "cities" and are holes for other reasons. I agree that other cities are worse off (Detroit of instance) but it is all relative to what is around it. driving on 114 through gtown to me is no fun and the "downtown" section after the turn off to the crotch is a little seedy. When compared to the other towns in that area I just don't think gtown is as nice. well maybe better than Weare.


----------



## Newpylong (Dec 12, 2014)

I'm not from Southern NH nor do I live there but calling a town a shithole on a forum where you have no idea where people are from is a douchebag move.


----------



## deadheadskier (Dec 12, 2014)

Should I take back my comments on Flint?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 12, 2014)

I didn't realize New Hampshire had towns that could be classified at poopholes.   I'm sure the NH poopholes must be paradise compared to NJ poopholes like Camden and Newark where there's ~2 murders per week though.  It's all relevant. 



Newpylong said:


> What floor or fund did you work at?



A bulge-bracket investment bank.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Dec 12, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> Should I take back my comments on Flint?



No one can deny the shit stain that is Flint


----------



## steamboat1 (Dec 12, 2014)

Newpylong said:


> What floor or fund did you work at?


NYSE since 1983, retired 2006. (Specialist). Last 5 years was the market maker for BRK A & B

edit: make that 6, Berkshire Hathaway Class A was the last paper book on the floor.


----------



## Smellytele (Dec 12, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> I didn't realize New Hampshire had towns that could be classified at poopholes.   I'm sure the NH poopholes must be paradise compared to NJ poopholes like Camden and Newark where there's ~2 murders per week though.  It's all relevant.
> .



No nothing compares with Camden. Oh sorry being elitist again. :evil:

also have you been to Berlin NH


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 12, 2014)

steamboat1 said:


> *Berkshire Hathaway Class A* was the last paper book on the floor.



Put me down for 1% of 1 share!



Smellytele said:


> *have you been to Berlin NH*



I do not believe so.


----------



## 4aprice (Dec 12, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> I didn't realize New Hampshire had towns that could be classified at poopholes.   I'm sure the NH poopholes must be paradise compared to NJ poopholes like Camden and* Newark where there's ~2 murders per week* though.  It's all relevant.



Oh but lets give the leaders of said city a PROMOTION.  I gotta get out of here.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## steamboat1 (Dec 12, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Put me down for 1% of 1 share!


It was still under $100 grand when I left. Look at it now. The odd lot market was very big in that stock even with a round lot being only 10 shares. Had to be very careful trading because sometimes you'd sell 10 shares & wind up being a buyer when the odd lots get executed on the trade.


----------



## deadheadskier (Dec 12, 2014)

I was up in Berlin for the first time just a few weeks ago. MUCH nicer than what I expected.   Not at all what I would call a hole.


----------



## Jully (Dec 13, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> Disagree.
> 
> ASC took on massive debt and expanded their skiing product first in hopes of selling real estate second.  In comparison to a more successful companies like Vail who did the exact opposite.  They sold real estate first and used profits from that to improve skiing infrastructure.   Okemo did the same here in the east.  They packed their slopes with condos before expanding the ski area.  There's not a lot of money to be made in ski resort operations.  There's a ton of money to be made in real estate.  You focus on the real estate first.  ASC didn't do that and went belly up for it.  I bet the same happens with Peaks in the long run unless they have some major real estate plays in the works at Mt. Snow and Attitash.



Mt. Snow has some real estate plans in the making I think. What Peaks hasn't done is really do much in the way of moving forward with real estate for Attitash... They have been pouring money into snowmaking over there and I doubt the skier visits have been rising. I don't understand why they haven't at least posted some kind of real estate plans over there for a condo development...

Looking at the info they put out before their stock offering Mt. Snow is their only really successful operation in New England.

Even Ragged has info on their website for future condo developments.


----------



## Smellytele (Dec 13, 2014)

Attitash has many beds already right across the street that are never full. Not sure if more will make a difference. While the condos are now getting old so maybe new upgraded stuff will help


----------



## joshua segal (Dec 13, 2014)

Jully said:


> Mt. Snow has some real estate plans in the making I think. What Peaks hasn't done is really do much in the way of moving forward with real estate for Attitash... They have been pouring money into snowmaking over there and I doubt the skier visits have been rising. I don't understand why they haven't at least posted some kind of real estate plans over there for a condo development...
> 
> Looking at the info they put out before their stock offering Mt. Snow is their only really successful operation in New England.
> 
> Even Ragged has info on their website for future condo developments.



Peak Resorts has 4 properties in New England: Crotched and Mt. Snow are profitable; Attitash and Wildcat are not.  Ragged is not a Peak Resorts property.


----------



## deadheadskier (Dec 13, 2014)

You keep saying Attitash isn't profitable.  Is that information provided to you at work?   I've always heard because of their expansive summer operations that they are profitable.


----------



## vermonter44 (Dec 13, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> You keep saying Attitash isn't profitable.  Is that information provided to you at work?   I've always heard because of their expansive summer operations that they are profitable.



I'll take a look at the info from the IPO, but from my memory, they had a lot a years where they did not break even


----------



## joshua segal (Dec 13, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> You keep saying Attitash isn't profitable.  Is that information provided to you at work?   I've always heard because of their expansive summer operations that they are profitable.


I was an ASC stockholder (yeah, there's a sucker born every minute) and I read it in their annual reports.


----------



## Jully (Dec 13, 2014)

joshua segal said:


> Peak Resorts has 4 properties in New England: Crotched and Mt. Snow are profitable; Attitash and Wildcat are not.  Ragged is not a Peak Resorts property.



I know that. I was simply saying a southern NH mountain with 1200' of vertical is at least talking about condos while Attitash for Peak is not.

New stuff might help if they advertised it pretty well, mentioned the newly capable of some snowmaking Wildcat, and if it was ski in ski out. There's still a great degree of uncertainty in that though. My main issue is that Peaks spent 2 million mostly in snowmaking at Attitash last year, 1.3 million the year before and I don't see how that's making the resort now profitable


----------



## deadheadskier (Dec 13, 2014)

Ragged isn't just talking real estate; it's actively being built right now.


----------



## joshua segal (Dec 13, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> Ragged isn't just talking real estate; it's actively being built right now.


Building, yes! But are they selling?

When real estate tanks, vacation property is the first thing to crash and the last to recover.  My read of ski area real estate is that prices are still depressed.


----------



## VTKilarney (Dec 13, 2014)

Depressed but selling.   


.


----------



## joshua segal (Dec 13, 2014)

VTKilarney said:


> Depressed but selling.
> 
> 
> .


Any idea or word or about how many units are available and how many have actually sold at Ragged? Or is EB5 money underwriting the gamble?


----------



## VTKilarney (Dec 13, 2014)

I don't know about Ragged.  


.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 17, 2014)

Stifel, Baird, Oppenheimer and FBR all initiated with their respective versions of a Buy rating on the stock yesterday.

Of course, the only one to take even remotely seriously is Oppenheimer.

EDIT:  Scratch that Oppenheimer bit.......


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 18, 2014)

This is going to sound like a hyperbolic comment, so I'll preface it by saying I'm completely serious...... I have never personally seen worse loan terms than this.  Ever.  

Whoever was running this company back in the 2006- 2008 time-frame are complete morons.  It's almost beyond belief how bad this is.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 18, 2014)

Additional info for those lame enough to be interested in this sortof thing:

Link to prospectus of failed 2011 IPO bid (for uber dorks)

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1517401/000095012311102033/c63465a6sv1za.htm

Link to the presentation Peak Resorts showed Wall Street (normal people will enjoy this)

bit.ly/1vlCL45


----------



## drjeff (Dec 18, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Additional info for those lame enough to be interested in this sortof thing:
> 
> Link to prospectus of failed 2011 IPO bid (for uber dorks)
> 
> ...



A few of the guys who I ski with, and our kids are on the race team at Mount Snow together, not to mention that 3 of the 4 of us live within 200 yards of each other up in VT, are finance guys in Boston, and went to the prospective investors presentation that Peak made a few weeks ago.

As they put it, the IPO is just a way to fund the looming 40 million payout they have for the Mount Snow/Attitash purchase, and then help fund, along with the EB-5 $$ they're looking to raise the major capital plan at Mount Snow.  The IPO at $9 was less than the $10-12 that they had been thinking at one time, as a sign of the questionable nature of the IPO from an investors perspective.

As of this morning, its trading on NASDAQ (under the SKIS name) at $7.79 a share, with a market cap value of a little over 108 million.  The current range in share price since the IPO has been from a low of $6.95 to a high of $9.19 a share.  My finance buddies were thinking that long term, it will settle in the $7 to $8 range


----------



## Gforce (Dec 19, 2014)

drjeff said:


> A few of the guys who I ski with, and our kids are on the race team at Mount Snow together, not to mention that 3 of the 4 of us live within 200 yards of each other up in VT, are finance guys in Boston, and went to the prospective investors presentation that Peak made a few weeks ago.
> 
> As they put it, the IPO is just a way to fund the looming 40 million payout they have for the Mount Snow/Attitash purchase, and then help fund, along with the EB-5 $$ they're looking to raise the major capital plan at Mount Snow.  The IPO at $9 was less than the $10-12 that they had been thinking at one time, as a sign of the questionable nature of the IPO from an investors perspective.
> 
> As of this morning, its trading on NASDAQ (under the SKIS name) at $7.79 a share, with a market cap value of a little over 108 million.  The current range in share price since the IPO has been from a low of $6.95 to a high of $9.19 a share.  My finance buddies were thinking that long term, it will settle in the $7 to $8 range



You don't want to touch these types of stocks in this market, many other alternatives to make a few bucks with less risk. A couple points:   - The EB5 is not a sure thing, the quota is already reached and it requires Congress to renew. Also, a $38,000/month lease on a zip line that is a part time revenue stream will be a huge drag on their cash flow.


----------



## joshua segal (Dec 20, 2014)

Gforce said:


> You don't want to touch these types of stocks in this market, many other alternatives to make a few bucks with less risk. A couple points:   - The EB5 is not a sure thing, the quota is already reached and it requires Congress to renew. Also, a $38,000/month lease on a zip line that is a part time revenue stream will be a huge drag on their cash flow.


Those who invested in Killington in 1958 won't agree with you.  Those who invested in ASC in the 1990's will.  But there are many kinds of investors - and some who even have a few percent of their resources in what they call "a play account" where they take risky investments knowing there is a good cocktail party story on the winners, and no need to discuss the losers.

EB5 money is interesting and it is a very profitable program that yield, if I remember right, about $5 billion a year in high-risk, low yield industries that can create jobs.  It is doubtful the Congress won't figure out a way to renew it.  Funny how the anti-immigration folks haven't complained vocally about this program!


----------



## machski (Dec 20, 2014)

You all need to see the Jay thread here and their handling of the EB-5 program.  I know Peaks was holding them up as the poster child of EB-5 and I'm not sure I'd want to associate my companies hopes in that program with them any longer.


----------



## Gforce (Dec 20, 2014)

joshua segal said:


> Those who invested in Killington in 1958 won't agree with you.  Those who invested in ASC in the 1990's will.  But there are many kinds of investors - and some who even have a few percent of their resources in what they call "a play account" where they take risky investments knowing there is a good cocktail party story on the winners, and no need to discuss the losers.
> 
> EB5 money is interesting and it is a very profitable program that yield, if I remember right, about $5 billion a year in high-risk, low yield industries that can create jobs.  It is doubtful the Congress won't figure out a way to renew it.  Funny how the anti-immigration folks haven't complained vocally about this program!




This is a dividend play at best. We love to ski, board, hike etc.. but as investors... A good chunk of my discretionary income is spent in this industry, but my investment portfolio is elsewhere. There's no Growth in this space.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 20, 2014)

drjeff said:


> As they put it, *the IPO is just a way to fund the looming 40 million payout they have* for the Mount Snow/Attitash purchase, and then help fund, along with the EB-5 $$ they're looking to raise the major capital plan at Mount Snow.



The entire IPO is for their debt, > $80 million is earmarked for it.  You get about $66 million if you add Mount Snow + Attitash +  Crotched.   If you haven't looked at the loan terms yet, do so.  They're amazing.



drjeff said:


> *The IPO at $9 was less than the $10-12 that they had been thinking at one time, as a sign of the questionable nature of the IPO from an investors perspective.*



If you think that's "questionable", just ponder the fact that the failed IPO back in 2011 had an expected offering price at $18.  So just 36 months later they agreed to sell the same company for 1/2 of what they claimed it was worth just 3 years ago.  Hmmmmm........



drjeff said:


> My finance buddies were thinking that* long term, it will settle in the $7 to $8 range*



Once they cut the dividend (and they will), it will drop like a rock, sub-$7 for sure.  In the very short-term, I think it's probably a decent trade due to the 7% payout, but you want to exit before that dividend-trap gets sprung.


----------



## joshua segal (Dec 20, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> ...
> 
> Once they cut the dividend (and they will), it will drop like a rock, sub-$7 for sure.  In the very short-term, I think it's probably a decent trade due to the 7% payout, but you want to exit before that dividend-trap gets sprung.



Nonsense.  It's like any other stock.  When it goes x-dividend, the stock nominally drops in value the amount of the dividend, but in truth, it is already imputed in the value of the stock; The only relevant thing to stockholders is that dividends are taxed differently from capital gains - and if the stock is part of an index, which SKIS isn't, the index drops a bit.


----------



## joshua segal (Dec 20, 2014)

machski said:


> You all need to see the Jay thread here and their handling of the EB-5 program.  I know Peaks was holding them up as the poster child of EB-5 and I'm not sure I'd want to associate my companies hopes in that program with them any longer.


There was a documentary on PBS radio on EB5 money and one of the people interviewed, a British man, whose money was invested in Jay Peak, said, "He looked at his $500,000 as his ticket to America and was thrilled that he was actually receiving almost 2% per year on it."


----------



## BenedictGomez (Dec 20, 2014)

joshua segal said:


> Nonsense.  It's like any other stock.  When it goes x-dividend, the stock nominally drops in value the amount of the dividend, but in truth, it is already imputed in the value of the stock; The only relevant thing to stockholders is that dividends are taxed differently from capital gains - and if the stock is part of an index, which SKIS isn't, the index drops a bit.



Re-read my post.     You either don't understand it, or you had a reading comprehension failure.


----------



## VTKilarney (Dec 20, 2014)

joshua segal said:


> There was a documentary on PBS radio on EB5 money and one of the people interviewed, a British man, whose money was invested in Jay Peak, said, "He looked at his $500,000 as his ticket to America and was thrilled that he was actually receiving almost 2% per year on it."


Talk to me when he wants to get his principal back.


----------



## machski (Dec 25, 2014)

VTKilarney said:


> Talk to me when he wants to get his principal back.



In fairness, I'm sure some "investors" are willing to spend $500,000.00 as their ticket to green card status and don't care if they see it (principal) again.


----------



## marcski (Dec 27, 2014)

machski said:


> In fairness, I'm sure some "investors" are willing to spend $500,000.00 as their ticket to green card status and don't care if they see it (principal) again.


That is the American Dream, no?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2015)

Down > 7% today after missing on earnings.


----------



## thetrailboss (Mar 12, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> Down > 7% today after missing on earnings.



What were the reporting dates?


----------



## EPB (Mar 12, 2015)

3Q'15 just ended on January 31. April 30 is the FYE.


----------



## thetrailboss (Mar 12, 2015)

eastern powder baby said:


> 3Q'15 just ended on January 31. April 30 is the FYE.



OK, so I would expect that the next quarter would be good......or at least should be good.


----------



## Newpylong (Mar 13, 2015)

Trading up this morning and some have moved them to a BUY.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 18, 2015)

thetrailboss said:


> OK, so *I would expect that the next quarter would be good......or at least should be good*.



You would definitely think, but wasn't President's Weekend terrible this year due to the cold?   That's the only thing that worries me, because PDW is a big chunk of a resorts revenue.  Might have to search the net for Mount Snow PDW trip reports.

After that, however, I agree, I think the back-half of this season could look really good (though last year's back-half was good too when considering comps).




Newpylong said:


> Trading up this morning and some have moved them to a BUY.



Down another 5% today.   

I wouldn't own this garbage long-term, but with a now ~8.7% yield, it might be interesting in the near-term.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jun 5, 2015)

SKIS pre-announced today.   

Not sure why they did that, but revenue was similar to last year, and essentially in-line with Wall Street's expectations.



> "While our properties were not  immune to the weather challenges of the 2014/15 ski season, *we continue  to expect we will report revenue and EBITDA for our full 2015 fiscal  year *(ended April 30, 2015) *near the $105.2 million in revenue and $25.4  million in EBITDA we reported for fiscal 2014. *We see the ability of  Peak Resorts' properties to perform this well when weather conditions  were less than stellar as a testament to their resiliency and their  ability to generate solid cash flows over the long term. 	"From this solid base, we continue to look to implement on our  strategic plan, which calls for a mix of organic growth, real estate  development and acquisitions.


----------



## dlague (Jun 5, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> SKIS pre-announced today.
> 
> Not sure why they did that, but revenue was similar to last year, and essentially in-line with Wall Street's expectations.





> We see the ability of Peak Resorts' properties to perform this well when weather conditions were less than stellar as a testament to their resiliency and their ability to generate solid cash flows over the long term.



 less than stellar - must be talking about OH and PA?  I thought this season was pretty good in VT, NH, MA and ME


----------



## skifree (Jun 5, 2015)

dlague said:


> less than stellar - must be talking about OH and PA?  I thought this season was pretty good in VT, NH, MA and ME



+1000


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jun 5, 2015)

dlague said:


> l*ess than stellar - must be talking about OH and PA?  I thought this season was pretty good* in VT, NH, MA and ME





skifree said:


> *+1000*



No; from a revenue generation standpoint, (which is what they're talking about) the season was definitely "less than stellar", they're 100% correct.  

When the weather was bad, it tended to be poorly timed to holidays, which are responsible for a huge chunk of a ski area's intake.  

That, and even the weekends in January and some of February had Murphy's Law timing.  Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, would all be good weather, then brutally cold weather would poor down from Canada just in time for the weekend.  That had to happen at least 3 or 4 times.


----------



## Quietman (Jun 5, 2015)

dlague said:


> less than stellar - must be talking about OH and PA?  I thought this season was pretty good in VT, NH, MA and ME



Christmas weekend was a rainy mess,  New Year's weekend was cold, MLK weekend was a rainy washout, and Presidents day weekend was frigged. That's a big chunk of the days that the "masses" ski.


----------



## deadheadskier (Jun 5, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> , then brutally cold weather would poor down from Canada just in time for the weekend.  That had to happen at least 3 or 4 times.



I agree with holiday weather issues with rain , but "brutal" is an exaggeration on temps.  You said this often throughout the winter as a reason for not heading North.

I found the forecasts on temperatures missed on the low end often this winter.  If they forecasted single digits, it usually ended up in the teens.  

Skied every weekend until March this winter.  Never once had issues with it being too cold.


----------



## dlague (Jun 5, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> I agree with holiday weather issues with rain , but "brutal" is an exaggeration on temps.  You said this often throughout the winter as a reason for not heading North.
> 
> I found the forecasts on temperatures missed on the low end often this winter.  If they forecasted single digits, it usually ended up in the teens.
> 
> Skied every weekend until March this winter.  Never once had issues with it being too cold.



Agreed!  But even with Christmas we went to BW and had a great day.  We skied New Year's Eve and Day and had great experiences.  Skied MLK weekend and did not have a problem.   We skied cold days and snowy days as well.  So we need perfect seasons now for it to be great?  I got 51 days this year and had a blast.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jun 5, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> I agree with holiday weather issues with rain , but "brutal" is an exaggeration on temps.  You said this often throughout the winter as a reason for not heading North.
> 
> I found the forecasts on temperatures missed on the low end often this winter.  If they forecasted single digits, it usually ended up in the teens.   Skied every weekend until March this winter.  Never once had issues with it being too cold.



That's an easy thing to say when you live in New Hampshire and it's a jog to the resort.    When you live in Pennsysvania, New Jersey, Maryland, southern New York, etc.... i.e., the places where a nice chunk of the ski resorts weekend revenue that we're talking about comes from, most people are not going to drive 12 to 15 hours roundtrip on a weekend where the on-mountain highs are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees with below zero windchills.  And that weather, that exact weather, happened about 3 or 4 weekends in the timeframe I mentioned.  On one of them, I went up to Lake Placid, and the cold definitely kept crowds away - even on a Saturday I found Whiteface empty.  Great for lift lines, bad for the bottom line.



dlague said:


> So we need perfect seasons now for it to be great?



You're forgetting the entire point of this thread.  It's not about discussing how "hard core" we are, it's about the Wall Street perspective of what effects the SKI bottom-line, both positively and negatively.


----------



## joshua segal (Jun 5, 2015)

From an economics point of view, AZers are not the measure of what constitutes a good season.

It poured on Dec. 24 and half of Dec. 25.  Peak Resort's Crotched Mt. did an excellent job recovering, but the quantity of guests did not pick up for more than half of the vacation period.  In Southern NH, it rained Sunday of MLK weekend.  MLK Day was nice skiing.  The customers didn't show up.  Feb. vacation week featured great skiing - but it was historically cold combined with the epic quantity of snow Boston kept people away in droves.  Bottom line: Knock out the historically 3 busiest times of the year and the profits will shrink!

Under the circumstances, I'm surprise that Peak did as well as they did. I heard (don't know if it was true) that Peak Resorts "cash cow resorts" in the mid-west got off to a very late start due to a lack of early season snow-making weather.


----------



## deadheadskier (Jun 5, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> That's an easy thing to say when you live in New Hampshire and it's a jog to the resort.    When you live in Pennsysvania, New Jersey, Maryland, southern New York, etc.... i.e., the places where a nice chunk of the ski resorts weekend revenue that we're talking about comes from, most people are not going to drive 12 to 15 hours roundtrip on a weekend where the on-mountain highs are forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees with below zero windchills.  And that weather, that exact weather, happened about 3 or 4 weekends in the timeframe I mentioned.  On one of them, I went up to Lake Placid, and the cold definitely kept crowds away - even on a Saturday I found Whiteface empty.  Great for lift lines, bad for the bottom line.



Well, if I lived where you do and I was concerned about the weather up North, I'd ski the Poconos or Catskills for the day / weekend.


----------



## yeggous (Jun 6, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> Well, if I lived where you do and I was concerned about the weather up North, I'd ski the Poconos or Catskills for the day / weekend.



And if I lived where he lives I'd move.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## deadheadskier (Jun 6, 2015)

yeggous said:


> And if I lived in where he lives I'd move.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



:lol:


----------



## steamboat1 (Jun 7, 2015)

Nah, nah nah nah nah. Where I live is better than where you live.

Whatta bunch of a-holes.

And to think one even thinks he moderates this site.

Sad.


----------



## ScottySkis (Jun 7, 2015)

yeggous said:


> And if I lived where he lives I'd move.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



Come to Catskills or you never know.


----------



## freeski (Jun 7, 2015)

ScottySkis said:


> Come to Catskills or you never know.


If you live in the east and do not live north of the Mass VT/NH border you are in error.


----------



## deadheadskier (Jun 7, 2015)

freeski said:


> If you live in the east and do not live north of the Mass VT/NH border you are in error.



After this past  weeks business travels through CT & MA, getting stuck in countless traffic jams and seeing the overwhelming evidence of crime problems, I got home and told my wife should I ever switch jobs, I want nothing to do with working south of the border you mention.  

Glad some people are happy living in those locales, but it's way too crowded for me.


----------



## Zand (Jun 7, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> After this past  weeks business travels through CT & MA, getting stuck in countless traffic jams and seeing the overwhelming evidence of crime problems, I got home and told my wife should I ever switch jobs, I want nothing to do with working south of the border you mention.
> 
> Glad some people are happy living in those locales, but it's way too crowded for me.



You realize there more to MA than just metro Boston, right?


----------



## deadheadskier (Jun 7, 2015)

I'm quite aware. I'm from central Mass originally.


----------



## ScottySkis (Jun 7, 2015)

400,00 people live in Oran he county. Lees in the Catskill


----------



## deadheadskier (Jun 7, 2015)

Catskills are great.


----------



## Zand (Jun 7, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> I'm quite aware. I'm from central Mass originally.



I'd bet that where I am (and probably where you're from) has less traffic and the same amount of crime than where you live now. I drive 25 mins to work and back everyday at rush hour both times and the only time I hit any kind of traffic is if I get stuck behind a school bus.


----------



## deadheadskier (Jun 7, 2015)

Zand, growing up where I did and traveling for a sales job, I've literally been to 95% of the towns in the state of MA. I am there all the time.

 I've enjoyed living in VT, NH or ME much more during my lifetime.

I've said I'm glad people like it down there.  Good for you.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jun 7, 2015)

joshua segal said:


> From an economics point of view, AZers are not the measure of what constitutes a good season.
> Bottom line: Knock out the historically 3 busiest times of the year and the profits will shrink!



Exactly.



deadheadskier said:


> Well, if I lived where you do and I was concerned about the weather up North, I'd ski the Poconos or Catskills for the day / weekend.



The Catskills got it almost as bad.  As for the Poconos, I really only ski there a few times per season - not a gigantic fan.    



yeggous said:


> And if I lived where he lives I'd move.



I do love skiing.  But not so much that I'm going to move just to be near the mountains.


----------



## freeski (Jun 7, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> I've enjoyed living in VT, NH or ME much more during my lifetime.


I've lived mostly in NH, but as a kid VT and did a stint in ME. Also lived all around Boston, Worcester and Baltimore. Every time I drive south into MA everything changes: more trash, rudder people, crime, poor drivers. I have friends from NY and I don't know how they put up with it. At least Boston is livable. I don't see NY that way. But a lot of it is what you're used to and feel familiar with. I've also spent a lot of time in TN; a nice place to visit, but I wouldn't want to live there. :flag:


----------



## steamboat1 (Jun 7, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> Zand, growing up where I did and traveling for a sales job, I've literally been to 95% of the towns in the state of MA. I am there all the time.
> 
> I've enjoyed living in VT, NH or ME much more during my lifetime.
> 
> I've said I'm glad people like it down there.  Good for you.


Yeah & you've also put people down for living where they live.

Glad you like where you live, not what I'd want, glad it works for you.

Couldn't really care.

Don't put others down moderator wanna be.

Maybe some day you'll learn how to be a moderator but I highly doubt it.

Guess it's just not in your genes.


----------



## deadheadskier (Jun 7, 2015)

steamboat1 said:


> Yeah & you've also put people down for living where they live.
> 
> Glad you like where you live, not what I'd want, glad it works for you.
> 
> ...



Great stuff steamboat.  Like you too


----------



## steamboat1 (Jun 8, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> Great stuff steamboat.  Like you too


Feelings mutual.

See we agree on some things.


----------



## VTKilarney (Jun 8, 2015)

I've always thought that the Pioneer Valley is a nice spot.  Close to civilization, but close to skiing too.   Greenfield has a pretty bad heroin problem, but there are still some nice areas in the vicinity.


----------



## freeski (Jun 8, 2015)

steamboat1 said:


> Yeah & you've also put people down for living where they live.
> 
> Glad you like where you live, not what I'd want, glad it works for you.
> 
> ...



_"That city desert makes you feel so cold it's got so many people, but it's got no soul and it's taken you so long to find out you were wrong when you thought it held everything."_


----------



## BenedictGomez (Jun 8, 2015)

I've lived rural, I've lived city, I've lived suburbia.  I know the pros and cons of each.

If you feel the need to spend a ton of time ripping other people's choice of living area (see: the last few pages of this thread), it's likely you feel an insecure need to validate your own decision.


----------



## deadheadskier (Jun 8, 2015)

If that's directed at me.  I was joking around.  I've got lots of friends in Jersey and while most live there because of family, it has lots of redeeming qualities.  Skiing isn't one of them, but being within a couple of hours of good skiing isn't the highest priority for everyone like it is for me.  I did say if I lived by you, I'd ski the Catskills or Poconos if it was cold.  

Do I want to live in Jersey, NY or Southern New England?  No.  Happy folks love it.  Not for me.  Having worked in the hospitality industry for many years, I've lived 12 different states.  I'm well versed in living in all sorts of different places. 

I think a more adequate theory is that some folks are overly sensitive about people not liking their home.  Sorry I and others hurt your feelings.  Bash on New Hampshire all you want.  I really couldn't care.


----------



## thetrailboss (Jun 8, 2015)

Looks like summer is here.  

Let's get back to Peaks.  

Any major projects at Attitash or Wildcat?  I know that they are working on snowmaking at Mount Snow.  I don't think that they are doing anything big at Crotched.


----------



## Jully (Jun 8, 2015)

I haven't heard anything at Wildcat or Attitash for winter improvements. Was really hoping for one more snowmaking project at Wildcat to get Upper Wildcat equipped with snowmaking since the pipes over there are unusable, but that doesn't appear to be the case


----------



## deadheadskier (Jun 8, 2015)

Only thing I've gotten out of Wildcat is expanded glades on the lower mountain.


----------



## bigbob (Jun 8, 2015)

Unfortunately I have had to commute through DHS town lately and the traffic jams have been brutal. I once had to sit in traffic for 5 minutes. Imagine that. I can't wait till they finish the water line replacement project! One day there was total grid lock when Rick decided to paint the cross walks. The cops didn't know what to do. Got a good laugh out of that one! The good news is Aroma Joes just opened!

 Now lighten up Steamboat, what's a matter, fish aren't biting?


----------



## deadheadskier (Jun 8, 2015)

See, I'm against Aroma Joe's.  I think once it catches on, it will result in traffic back ups of a minute or two on Main Street. :lol:  If the town goes crazy and puts in it's first traffic light, I may have to move.  :lol: 

Now the new Nature's Way Market, Japanese Restaurant and Brewery that are opening, those I'm excited about.


----------



## bigbob (Jun 8, 2015)

It might help relieve the back ups at the other coffee shop in the bowling alley parking lot. I saw a sign go up today for Newberry Farm Market along with a butcher shop next to Aroma Joes. Too much progress, Agree on the light, my town now has 2 and it sucks! Next thing we might get is more sidewalks and street lights!


----------



## deadheadskier (Jun 8, 2015)

Newberry Farm, that's the name.  Owned by the same folks who own Nature's Way in South Berwick.  I used to sell bacon and duck to them about five years ago when I was in the business.  The South Berwick store has a killer beer selection; great meats too, though on the pricey side.  It will be nice to not have to drive to Stratham, Durham or Lee if I just need to grab something quick to throw on the grill. 


Prayers you don't get more street lights!  :lol:


----------



## Newpylong (Jun 8, 2015)

Jully said:


> I haven't heard anything at Wildcat or Attitash for winter improvements. Was really hoping for one more snowmaking project at Wildcat to get Upper Wildcat equipped with snowmaking since the pipes over there are unusable, but that doesn't appear to be the case



Wish that was the case, they really need to be replaced.


----------



## Edd (Jun 8, 2015)

I'm so behind the grocery store here, but I can't get myself to go to Aroma Joes, despite the convenience. I've gotta support Crackskulls, man.


----------



## catsup948 (Jun 9, 2015)

deadheadskier said:


> After this past  weeks business travels through CT & MA, getting stuck in countless traffic jams and seeing the overwhelming evidence of crime problems, I got home and told my wife should I ever switch jobs, I want nothing to do with working south of the border you mention.
> 
> Glad some people are happy living in those locales, but it's way too crowded for me.



No crowds here!  No jobs either!  Lots of cows!


----------



## bigbob (Jun 9, 2015)

Not a coffee drinker, but I have been to the Big Bean for breakfast many a time. +1 on the grocery store/ butcher  shop.I wonder when they ill open?


----------



## steamboat1 (Jun 9, 2015)

catsup948 said:


> No crowds here!  No jobs either!  Lots of cows!


Never even saw a cow in NYC. Crowds yes, jobs yes, but no cows.


----------



## steamboat1 (Sep 18, 2015)

One of Peaks ski areas.

http://unofficialnetworks.com/2015/09/news-mad-rivers-ski-lodge-burns-down


----------



## Quietman (Sep 18, 2015)

Mad River in Ohio with 300' of vert has as many skier visits as Crotched and Wildcat combined.  This really sucks for them.


----------



## manhattanskier (Sep 18, 2015)

Scared the hell out of me, thought the headline was MRG. Sad to see it happen to anyone. 


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone, I blame auto correct ;-)


----------



## Harvey (Sep 18, 2015)

manhattanskier said:


> Scared the hell out of me, thought the headline was MRG. Sad to see it happen to anyone.



That story was clickbait bullshit.

Not to diminish the loss, but UN KNEW they were misleading many people.


----------



## steamboat1 (Sep 18, 2015)

Harvey said:


> That story was clickbait bullshit.
> 
> Not to diminish the loss, but UN KNEW they were misleading many people.


How so? 

The name of the place is Mad River.


----------



## timmyc (Sep 18, 2015)

...


----------



## ss20 (Sep 18, 2015)

Harvey said:


> That story was clickbait bullshit.
> 
> Not to diminish the loss, but UN KNEW they were misleading many people.



No... the name of the mountain is Mad River.  There's a disclaimer at the bottom of the article explicitly saying [/B]_This is not Mad River Glen!!!_*

If it was Mad River Glen there would've been a 50 page thread about it by noon.*


----------



## Quietman (Sep 19, 2015)

Harvey said:


> That story was clickbait bullshit.
> 
> Not to diminish the loss, but UN KNEW they were misleading many people.



Mad River in Ohio also has over twice the skier visits of Mad River Glen. Just maybe just a few people care more about their lodge, of course not in New England, but in the midwest yes.  

I admire the people around here who have a pasionate love of old school mountains like Mad River, Magic and Smugs.  But lets face reality, these are very locally popular micro hills.  Smuggs may be an exception but really doesn't deserve national rankings with their arcaic infrustruture.  Terrain is great, but everthing else is 50 yrs old.  Some like it, I wont travel miles to get there.  I actually admire hills like mt Abram when they name their main(e)  lift, the "Way Back Machine" At least the aren't pretenting to be something that they aren't.   I wish magic well, but they need to come crystal clear as to what their short term and long term visions are as soon as possible, as well as a reason to invest with them.  A warm weather winter could be a disaster for them, while others with snowmaking power would most likely thrive. I will cry at every ski area that is newly listed on NELSAP, but will be pissed at some of the bad owners that put them there. I am personally thankful for the rebirth of Crotched for many reasons, without it, I might have joined to ranks of the non-skiers due to $$.    Now I am a happy camper, hiker and skier.


----------



## lucio (Sep 19, 2015)

Monte mongioie


----------



## BenedictGomez (Sep 19, 2015)

steamboat1 said:


> *How so?
> 
> The name of the place is Mad River*.





ss20 said:


> *No... the name of the mountain is Mad River.*  There's a disclaimer at the bottom of the article explicitly saying [/B]_This is not Mad River Glen!!!_*
> *


*

I think Harvey is 100% correct.   The headline writer most likely knew precisely what he was doing.  

The journalistically responsible thing to do would be to put the state in the headline knowing full well that there are two resorts of the same name.  But he also knew that the more famous MRG is about 18,000% more well-known is skiing circles and would get way more click/throughs, hence the intentionally ambiguous titling.  EVERYTHING today in online content is all about the page hits. My 2¢.*


----------



## ss20 (Sep 19, 2015)

BenedictGomez said:


> I think Harvey is 100% correct.   The headline writer most likely knew precisely what he was doing.
> 
> The journalistically responsible thing to do would be to put the state in the headline knowing full well that there are two resorts of the same name.  But he also knew that the more famous MRG is about 18,000% more well-known is skiing circles and would get way more click/throughs, hence the intentionally ambiguous titling.  EVERYTHING today in online content is all about the page hits. My 2¢.



How would you title the article? 

"Ski Resort Lodge in Ohio that We Won't Name to Prevent Backlash from 2% of the Readers Burns to the Ground"


----------



## thetrailboss (Sep 19, 2015)

I saw it on FB; the pic made it pretty clear that it was not MRG. That said, I still clicked to be sure. UN is not the preeminent news source as, say, the NYT.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## Jully (Sep 19, 2015)

I mean who knows how well this Mad River is known in Ohio? If it really has 2x as many skier visits then it totally could be more well known out there. The Ohio / Midwest skiers I met in college knew absolutely nothing about east coast skiing. Stowe, Killington, Sugarloaf, they had no idea what those places were unless their families went east instead of west for a ski vacation.


----------



## joshua segal (Sep 19, 2015)

FWIW, I skied at Mad River of Ohio - and while a dubious compliment, I would say it is the best skiing Ohio has to offer!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Sep 19, 2015)

ss20 said:


> *How would you title the article? *
> 
> "Ski Resort Lodge in Ohio that We Won't Name to Prevent Backlash from 2% of the Readers Burns to the Ground"



*EASY.  *

I'll even use their title and just rearrange/add a few words.

*Mad River Mountain in Ohio has Ski Lodge Burn Down
*
Q)  Was that so hard?
A) No

Like Harvey said, they did it intentionally, and they knew exactly what they were doing.  Click bait.


----------



## Jully (Sep 20, 2015)

But wouldn't it be titled Mad River Glen if it was about MRG? I would venture to say that the more popular ski area in this case gets more of the clicks.


----------



## doublediamond (Sep 20, 2015)

Jully said:


> But wouldn't it be titled Mad River Glen if it was about MRG? I would venture to say that the more popular ski area in this case gets more of the clicks.



The headline was "Mad River."  The author should have specified "Mountain" or "Glen".  They knew what they were doing. Click bait.  Now you got people who go to both clicking the link.


----------



## joshua segal (Sep 20, 2015)

Believe it or not, when I lived in Cincinnati, most people hadn't heard of either area, but if they knew and you said, "Mad River", they would have been thinking Ohio - not VT.


----------



## ThinkSnow (Sep 21, 2015)

If the lodge at MRG in VT had caught fire, it would have made local NE television news before showing up on some obscure generic outdoorsy website.


----------



## yeggous (Sep 21, 2015)

ThinkSnow said:


> If the lodge at MRG in VT had caught fire, it would have made local NE television news before showing up on some obscure generic outdoorsy website.



Wait, people still watch television news? I thought that was just for people eligible for AARP membership.


----------



## ThinkSnow (Sep 21, 2015)

yeggous said:


> Wait, people still watch television news? I thought that was just for people eligible for AARP membership.



Maybe that's all they're telling you in your retirement community.  In my world, the news is on at the gym first thing in the morning.  Its also on in the cafeteria at work all day long.


----------



## steamboat1 (Sep 21, 2015)

yeggous said:


> Wait, people still watch television news? I thought that was just for people eligible for AARP membership.


They do have some hot looking news casters. Especially some of the weather girls.


----------



## snoloco (Sep 25, 2015)

ss20 said:


> Lol.  Vail will come to NE soon DHS.  My guess is they'll take a small hill by NYC or Boston.  Maybe they'll make a deal with Interwest and buy Stratton and Mountain Creek.  With Waterville's financial difficulties, already-made master plan, and village they're a good candidate too.



Intrawest doesn't own Mountain Creek anymore.  They sold it back to the original owners in 2010.


----------



## Jully (Sep 26, 2015)

Of the options in the east, I don't see Vail trying try buy Waterville unless they can get access to Mt. Tecumseh. The village gondola and stuff are great, but it's just not a competitive enough mountain to get people to buy land / condos around right now. 

Vail buying Stratton would be ridiculous. I'm assuming they make a killing every year.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 5, 2016)

A boutique IB that covers SKIS downgraded it due to the poor ski season and the stocks been getting CRUSHED, down 30% in the last few days since the downgrade.  I haven't seen the report, but I'd speculate they must have made negative comments about the sustainability of SKIS dividend, because that's really the 1 thing that would crater the stock this quickly.

In response the company commented on the season (and its' dividend) today:



> We continue to see the  overnight and day-drive segments of the market as offering opportunities  for organic growth, resort development and further acquisitions. The  board demonstrated confidence in that strategy when it declared a  regular quarterly cash dividend in December that will be paid to Peak  shareholders on February 24.  We anticipate the  board will declare the next regular quarterly dividend in March,  reflecting continued confidence in our operations and outlook.” Boyd  added, *“This year’s ski season continues to develop from its warm  start. We experienced very strong activity across the entire 14-resort  portfolio in the second half of January, reflecting pent up demand and  the improved weather conditions.* Now we are looking forward to an  excellent Presidents’ Day holiday across all of our resorts, but  particularly in the Northeast, where many schools close for a full week  for this holiday. We also anticipate United States Citizenship and  Immigration Services approval of our first EB-5 investor’s I-526  Petition in the near future.”


----------



## yeggous (Mar 15, 2016)

SKIS announced their latest results today. Looks like a flop, but we all knew that was coming. Anybody have some insight?


----------



## Domeskier (Mar 15, 2016)

yeggous said:


> SKIS announced their latest results today. Looks like a flop, but we all knew that was coming. Anybody have some insight?



Won't know the impact of the new pass sales until the fourth quarter results are out three months from now.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 15, 2016)

yeggous said:


> SKIS announced their latest results today. Looks like a flop, but we all knew that was coming.* Anybody have some insight?*



Yes.   



> "The slower-than-expected timeline for approval of our EB-5 project has  resulted in cash balances that are lower than we had anticipated.* Our  board of directors,* *while committed to the dividend as a means of  rewarding shareholders, is closely monitoring the EB-5 project status  and continually evaluating the first dividend for fiscal 2017 in that  context."*



SKIS gets crushed if they cut that dividend.


----------



## yeggous (Mar 15, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yes.
> 
> 
> 
> SKIS gets crushed if they cut that dividend.



The stock price is already a fraction of the IPO level. How low do you think it will go?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 15, 2016)

yeggous said:


> The stock price is already a fraction of the IPO level. How low do you think it will go?



If they slash or eliminate the dividend?  Below $2 for sure.


----------



## machski (Mar 15, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yes.
> 
> 
> 
> SKIS gets crushed if they cut that dividend.



Hmmm, seems to me this is where the Peaks pass pricing for next season originated from.  A need to increase cash on hand given EB-5 delays right now.  If that is true, this will be interesting to see how that plays out 12 months down the road as well.


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## yeggous (Mar 26, 2016)

Latest word from the hill: all Peak Resorts employees will be laid off for the month of May.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 26, 2016)

Where that rumor come from??

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## deadheadskier (Mar 26, 2016)

yeggous said:


> Latest word from the hill: all Peak Resorts employees will be laid off for the month of May.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



Rough, but not surprising.  Mandatory furloughs aren't uncommon in the ski business.


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## NYDB (Mar 26, 2016)

Very reminiscent of ASC with the mandatory 20% paycuts at K in mid nineties


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## drjeff (Mar 26, 2016)

yeggous said:


> Latest word from the hill: all Peak Resorts employees will be laid off for the month of May.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



Considering their summer operations  at Attitash, Mount Snow and Hunter (not sure when Wildcat starts their summer Gondola rides off the top of my head) start Memorial Day Weekend, and Mount Snow's golf course typically opens the 3rd week of May, and I'm sure that the Grand Hotels at Mount Snow and Attitash have reservations and some conferences and weddings in May, not sure how much belief I'd put in that rumor.

Will some typical "spring transition" furlows happen? Probably, but laying off everybody i'm guessing is nothing more than a crazy rumor


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## meff (Mar 26, 2016)

If they were doing that wide of a layoff they would be required to file a WARN notice, I believe 60 days out.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 26, 2016)

Doesn't this always happens.?

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## yeggous (Mar 26, 2016)

Rumor comes from a reliable management level employee. I'm sure there will be exceptions for hotel operations and perhaps summer ops for Memorial Day. The idea is to reduce salary from the numerous full time employees. Think of the marketing, mountain ops, etc.


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## ss20 (Mar 26, 2016)

yeggous said:


> Latest word from the hill: all Peak Resorts employees will be laid off for the month of May.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



I'd call BS on that.  You still need people to answer the phones, keep communications/utilities running.  May is the main mountain bike trail maintenance month so there's no way they won't be at the mountain.


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## yeggous (Mar 26, 2016)

ss20 said:


> I'd call BS on that.  You still need people to answer the phones, keep communications/utilities running.  May is the main mountain bike trail maintenance month so there's no way they won't be at the mountain.



I too question the definition of "all" employees but the general decision is clear.


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## cdskier (Mar 26, 2016)

yeggous said:


> I too question the definition of "all" employees but the general decision is clear.



Probably more like "all non-essential" employees that aren't needed to keep the lights on every day...


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## deadheadskier (Mar 26, 2016)

ss20 said:


> I'd call BS on that.  You still need people to answer the phones, keep communications/utilities running.  May is the main mountain bike trail maintenance month so there's no way they won't be at the mountain.



Let me tell you a little story about Snowshoe Mountain Resort.  I was group manger of F&B there in 2002-2003. Intrawest owned it then. They were by far the largest and most successful ski resort operator in the country at that time. ASC was failing; Vail was growing, but no where near what they are today; Powdr, Boyne and Peaks barely existed. 

At Snowshoe, I oversaw $2.5M worth of business, 6 supervisors at 3 F&B outlets and roughly 80 staff members during peak season.  There were two other Group Managers overseeing similar operations. We reported to the Director of F&B.  Also three back of the house kitchen mangers 

Come April 15th, every single line level associate at the resort was laid off.  This following a 400K plus skier visit season.  All the management worked 70+ house week during the off season to compensate. To your point of answering phones, only salaried management was kept on and they took over coverage, often having to switch to third shift. Snowshoe was the biggest MTB destination in the East back then; all maintenance projects were basically postponed until June.

We in F&B worked 6+ days a week during off season.  We ran banquets during the day and the one restaurant open at night we would rotate between serving, dishwashing and bartending each night.   Servers that were paid $2.13/hr at the time were deemed too expensive at a resort that brought in $35+M for the year. Intrawest as a whole was a Billion dollar company then and the directive came from the top to lay off $2.13/hr employees and have salaried management do the job.  

So having experienced that at Intrawest, I have no doubt something similar could happen at Peaks given the winter we just had.


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## catskillman (Mar 27, 2016)

There were layoff's at Hunter yesterday.  And the ski shop is going to be closed until May.  Interesting, as it becomes an Orvis fly fishing shop in the summer and trout season starts sometime in April............


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## Funky_Catskills (Mar 28, 2016)

catskillman said:


> There were layoff's at Hunter yesterday.  And the ski shop is going to be closed until May.  Interesting, as it becomes an Orvis fly fishing shop in the summer and trout season starts sometime in April............



Who got laid off?  Other than the normal end of season lay offs..


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## 180 (Mar 28, 2016)

http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/p...nagement-sells-out-of-cratering-stock-437436/


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## steamboat1 (Mar 29, 2016)

180 said:


> http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/p...nagement-sells-out-of-cratering-stock-437436/



Go on take the money & run....who, who, who.


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## Funky_Catskills (Mar 29, 2016)

catskillman said:


> There were layoff's at Hunter yesterday.  And the ski shop is going to be closed until May.  Interesting, as it becomes an Orvis fly fishing shop in the summer and trout season starts sometime in April............



So yes...  Hunter did let people go for the month..  But they will come back in May unless they were seasonal.
Just a cost saver as after a bad winter.   I heard they got a little extra $ to help and they can get unemployment..

Hotel is staying open..  

All is well...


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## yeggous (Mar 29, 2016)

Funky_Catskills said:


> All is well...



That's a funny interpretation of well. I'd feel differently if I just lost half my income for the month.


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## Funky_Catskills (Mar 29, 2016)

yeggous said:


> That's a funny interpretation of well. I'd feel differently if I just lost half my income for the month.



Nobody is fired or laid of permanently...
In the ski world thats pretty fukcing awesome..

And it's also first hand from friends who are ok with it...
Unemployment and the extra cash..  All good... Doesn't cost much to live here..


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## doublediamond (Mar 29, 2016)

That's pretty stupid.  It's not going to go any lower - it can only go up.  And they've promised dividends will still be awarded this quarter. I'm actually surprised their Q3 earnings were only off by 35%.  Next year is supposed to be a La Nina year and analysts are forecasting a rebound to $6.50 a share by this time next year.

... oh and SKIS was up 10% yesterday ...


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## 180 (Mar 29, 2016)

Here is the letter sent to all home owners at the hotel.
Hello Owners,

Hunter Mountain is officially closed for the 2015-16 season.  We do hope you were able to enjoy the Mountain this winter.  

With the closing, Van Winkle’s Restaurant will be also be closing from now until Tuesday, May 10[SUP]th[/SUP].  They will have limited hours for April 15[SUP]th[/SUP] – April 17[SUP]th[/SUP] and April 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] – April 25[SUP]th[/SUP].  Starting May 11[SUP]th[/SUP] through July 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] they will resume being open Wednesday through Sunday, closed Monday and Tuesday.
*[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]*


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 29, 2016)

doublediamond said:


> That's pretty stupid. * It's not going to go any lower *-* it can only go up*.  And they've promised dividends will still be awarded this quarter. I'm actually surprised their Q3 earnings were only off by 35%.  Next year is supposed to be a La Nina year and analysts are forecasting a rebound to $6.50 a share by this time next year.
> 
> ... oh and SKIS was up 10% yesterday ...



That is not true of any stock.

  SKIS is not a stock you put your kids college money in, it's very speculative, and if they have to cut the dividend, the stock will get cut in half (probably worse actually).


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## catskillman (Mar 29, 2016)

180 said:


> Here is the letter sent to all home owners at the hotel.
> Hello Owners,
> 
> Hunter Mountain is officially closed for the 2015-16 season.  We do hope you were able to enjoy the Mountain this winter.
> ...


Does this also include the bar???

It is great that they can collect umemployment, however, in NY the max is $425 which is very low.  NJ is $625!!\\


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## chuckstah (Mar 29, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> That is not true of any stock.
> 
> SKIS is not a stock you put your kids college money in, it's very speculative, and if they have to cut the dividend, the stock will get cut in half (probably worse actually).



+1.  Any stock can fluctuate in value greatly.  All stocks are very fluid in price, especially ones based on revenue partially controlled by things beyond the owner's control, such as weather.  There is no guarantee that next season won't be worse than this one and no guarantee that the stock won't go to zero.  That being said, I really hope next season is much better than this one, which COULD help raise SKIS value.  But no sure thing.


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## machski (Apr 10, 2016)

Anyone else starting to get concerned here?

From newenglandskihistory:
￼REPORT: Peak Resorts Financial Concerns Prompting Layoffs, Construction DelaysMount Snow West Lake project may not be completed in 2016.Sunday, April 10, 2016, NewEnglandSkiIndustry.comFeeling the pressure of a devastating winter and high debt load, Peak Resorts is in the midst of making major cuts at some of its northeastern properties.

Wildcat Cuts
According to an industry source, multiple full time, year round Wildcat employees in operations and marketing have been let go. In addition, the Attitash and Wildcat Director of Marketing’s thirteen year tenure at the ski areas recently came to an end.

Wildcat has subsequently suspended Monday-Friday operations, a half of a month earlier than in 2015. If Wildcat reopens on April 16, it will be the last open New Hampshire ski area, as well as the only Peak Resorts area operating.

Mount Snow West Lake Reservoir
Meanwhile, at Peak Resorts flagship Mount Snow, the previously announced West Lake snowmaking project is in jeopardy. According to a source at the ski area, the project has a “50/50” chance of being ready for the 2016-17 season.

The formal groundbreaking for the 120 million gallon snowmaking reservoir was held in May of 2015. When Peak Resorts announced the $66 million West Lake and Carinthia projects were fully funded in August of 2015, the company expecting U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services I-526 Petition approval by the end of 2015. The company was planning to complete the project with $30 million in EB-5 money, however those phase one funds are still awaiting I-526 approval. According to its most recent SEC 10-Q filing, $52 million in EB-5 funding is being held in escrow.


Peak Resorts Financials
With the large sum frozen in escrow, the recent $36.8 million Hunter Mountain acquisition, and the devastating Northeast winter, Peak Resorts saw its free cash balance drop to $11.4 million in January, down 45% from the previous winter. Long term debt has increased by 20% to $118 million, the vast majority of which has an annual interest rate of over 10%. Peak Resorts’ stock closed at $3.24 on Friday, down 64% since its initial public offering 17 months ago.


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## yeggous (Apr 10, 2016)

I can confirm that the layoffs. There is a very negative vibe among the remaining employees.


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## Jully (Apr 10, 2016)

machski said:


> Anyone else starting to get concerned here?
> 
> From newenglandskihistory:
> ￼REPORT: Peak Resorts Financial Concerns Prompting Layoffs, Construction DelaysMount Snow West Lake project may not be completed in 2016.Sunday, April 10, 2016, NewEnglandSkiIndustry.comFeeling the pressure of a devastating winter and high debt load, Peak Resorts is in the midst of making major cuts at some of its northeastern properties.
> ...



I wonder whether the 11.4 million in operating capital/free cash is pre or post season pass sales to this point. 



yeggous said:


> I can confirm that the layoffs. There is a very negative vibe among the remaining employees.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



While it absolutely is terrible for anyone who was laid off, I'm not horribly worried yet. This should hopefully be a solid summer in terms of season pass sales generating revenue and I'm assuming that Peaks does not lose any money from their summer operations. 

As long as they have enough free cash to go into next season and make snow and get every resort up and running, then we shouldn't have any issue. The issue will come if next season is as abysmal as this season. Though if next year is a banner year or even a slightly above average year for snowfall, Peaks is looking to be in great shape.

Right now it appears to be just a mix of the Hunter acquisition adding debt during what turned out be an absolutely devastating financial winter season. The EB-5 funds being frozen isn't connected to the current Peaks financial woes as far as I know.


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## steamboat1 (Apr 10, 2016)

How does a new 120m gallon reservoir for snowmaking funded with $30m EB-5 money create 60 new full time permanent jobs?


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## Jully (Apr 10, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> How does a new 120m gallon reservoir for snowmaking funded with $30m EB-5 money create 60 new full time permanent jobs?



Year round SCUBA diving tours of the lake?


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## steamboat1 (Apr 11, 2016)

Jully said:


> Year round SCUBA diving tours of the lake?


Correction....$52m in EB-5 money is held in escrow = 104 new full time permanent jobs.

That's just what is held in escrow, doesn't say the total EB-5 funds raised.

Yeah OK

Everyone's talking about Jay/Burke but there's a lot of shenanigans going on here too.

I wouldn't touch their stock with a ten foot pole.


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## machski (Apr 11, 2016)

Jully said:


> I wonder whether the 11.4 million in operating capital/free cash is pre or post season pass sales to this point.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I don't really see it that way.  Their season pass pricing is well below the top pricing at their largest resorts last year so they have to sell that many more to make the same revenue as last year.  Maybe they do that, but that is issue one.  (And yes, they may get more ancillary revenue from F&B, retail sales or they may not as they attract bargain hunters with the pass pricing).

The other issue is the increased debt load with Hunter on the tails of a horrendous season.  This reminds me of ASC when they took on Steamboat and Heavenly after Canyons and hit an awful season in the Rockies and East.  Same thing happened, starting a downward spiral they never recovered from.

Yes Peaks is not huge into real estate, but they are a highly leveraged ski company with their largest assets concentrated in the Northeast.  Personally, that doesn't feel like a great business model to me.


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## drjeff (Apr 11, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> How does a new 120m gallon reservoir for snowmaking funded with $30m EB-5 money create 60 new full time permanent jobs?



It's not jobs that Mount Snow/Peak Resorts themselves will 100% create in the area, it's also jobs that certain forumula's/statistics show should be created in the general area as a result of the EB-5 money - the full amount now (just over 50 million in escrow waiting for the INS to approve the VISA's (almost all from Chinese investors as I understand) will be for not just the snowmaking expansion (which should bring more people to the mountain, people who will likely need more services both on/off the hill and as such in theory will require businesses to hire more people to take care of the greater number of customers) but also redevelopment of the Carinthia base lodge and surrounding area with a mix of residential and commercial development, which in theory will generate more jobs......

In theory the potential jobs created from the EB-5 money are there on paper.....  Will I necessarily being seeing 100+ full time jobs in the area in a few years when me and my family are up in the region in say Late April/early May or Mid October through Thanksgiving?? I'm not so sure.....  Will there be increased hiring of staff for multiple local businesses in the winter and likely to some degree summer seasons from the finished development from the EB-5 money? That I think is more realistic


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## drjeff (Apr 11, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> Correction....$52m in EB-5 money is held in escrow = 104 new full time permanent jobs.
> 
> That's just what is held in escrow, doesn't say the total EB-5 funds raised.
> 
> ...



The 52 million in escrow now is all slated for "phase I" of their master redevelopment plan 

As of the Mount Snow passholders meeting in late February, they said that the main, formal push to raise roughly another 50 million in EB-5 money for "phase II" of redevelopment hasn't heavily commenced yet, but they were planning on doing so relatively soon

Might there be some EB-5 money above and beyond the initial 52 million raised from work done to raise the phase I funds? I suppose, but do not know


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## Newpylong (Apr 11, 2016)

yeggous said:


> I can confirm that the layoffs. There is a very negative vibe among the remaining employees.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



Most people should have assumed no one was safe going into the off season after this year... Not a good feeling indeed.


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## yeggous (Apr 11, 2016)

Newpylong said:


> Most people should have assumed no one was safe going into the off season after this year... Not a good feeling indeed.



I think a lot of employees expected an early end to the season for hourly employees, and probably some furloughs. The thing that caught a lot of them off guard was the layoffs of full-time, permanent employees. I heard *all* of the AttiCat marketing people were laid off. And the remaining Peak Resorts marketing director is on a "vacation" right now.


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## deadheadskier (Apr 11, 2016)

drjeff said:


> It's not jobs that Mount Snow/Peak Resorts themselves will 100% create in the area, it's also jobs that certain forumula's/statistics show should be created in the general area as a result of the EB-5 money - the full amount now (just over 50 million in escrow waiting for the INS to approve the VISA's (almost all from Chinese investors as I understand) will be for not just the snowmaking expansion (which should bring more people to the mountain, people who will likely need more services both on/off the hill and as such in theory will require businesses to hire more people to take care of the greater number of customers) but also redevelopment of the Carinthia base lodge and surrounding area with a mix of residential and commercial development, which in theory will generate more jobs......
> 
> In theory the potential jobs created from the EB-5 money are there on paper.....  Will I necessarily being seeing 100+ full time jobs in the area in a few years when me and my family are up in the region in say Late April/early May or Mid October through Thanksgiving?? I'm not so sure.....  Will there be increased hiring of staff for multiple local businesses in the winter and likely to some degree summer seasons from the finished development from the EB-5 money? That I think is more realistic



Really?  I've never seen language that ancillary jobs are calculated in the equation.  If so, then those businesses should receive some of the funds, not just Mount Snow.

I think Jay and Burke both prove out that whatever metric they're using to determine job creation is a complete and utter joke.  It will be no different at Mount Snow.


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## drjeff (Apr 11, 2016)

yeggous said:


> I think a lot of employees expected an early end to the season for hourly employees, and probably some furloughs. The thing that caught a lot of them off guard was the layoffs of full-time, permanent employees. I heard *all* of the AttiCat marketing people were laid off. And the remaining Peak Resorts marketing director is on a "vacation" right now.



FYI, the Peaks marketing guy who is on vacation right now, with a bunch of other Peak full time guys (including one of the CEO's son's) historically has always gone on vacation this time of year to the same basic resort to go golfing, with most of the same Peak guys, for the last 5 or 6 years...  

As for the Atti-cat marketing person, Peak, when they brought the person back from his prior GM job in Ohio to handle the regional marketing made the decision to focus their marketing on more of a regional level instead of a resort by resort level.  With their marketing guy living in the North Conway area, there was some redundancy is what I'm guessing......


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## Jully (Apr 11, 2016)

machski said:


> I don't really see it that way.  Their season pass pricing is well below the top pricing at their largest resorts last year so they have to sell that many more to make the same revenue as last year.  Maybe they do that, but that is issue one.  (And yes, they may get more ancillary revenue from F&B, retail sales or they may not as they attract bargain hunters with the pass pricing).
> 
> Yes Peaks is not huge into real estate, but they are a highly leveraged ski company with their largest assets concentrated in the Northeast.  Personally, that doesn't feel like a great business model to me.



Yes they need more volume, but its also about generating operating capital for the next season. Paying employees, inspecting lifts, starting up snowmaking. I think the majority of a resort's income (or at least a plurality of their income) comes from day ticket sales. 

Its definitely not the most sound business model. Though their Midwestern resorts are low cost operations that also provide good capital. I think they'll really be in trouble if they look to try and offload one of their holdings. That would mean they are truly cash strapped. Debt load doesn't scare me all that much for a ski resort, though maybe I'll be proven wrong about that in the next few years. Resorts always have debt, Peaks might not be in a favorable debt position right now, but they're not in a devastating position in my opinion.


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## drjeff (Apr 11, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> Really?  I've never seen language that ancillary jobs are calculated in the equation.  If so, then those businesses should receive some of the funds, not just Mount Snow.
> 
> I think Jay and Burke both prove out that whatever metric they're using to determine job creation is a complete and utter joke.  It will be no different at Mount Snow.



I remember hearing about the ancillary job creation, at least for a percentage of the job creation, at some presentation about it a year or 2 ago.

Frankly right now in the general Mount Snow area, with the major work going on 2 miles down the street at the Hermitage Club as well.  Creating 104 "full time" jobs in the area might actually be quite doable with ancillary creation factors.  I can attest, just on the construction side of things, from what my own family went through trying to find a contractor and sub contractors to remodel both of the bathrooms in our condo, a process that started with trying to find a contractor 2 years ago, and finally finished up about a month ago after we gave up trying to find a local contractor up there who would actually take our job and had a GC from our home area in CT head up to do the work, and then had to get VT licensed electricians and plumbers for building code reasons, we couldn't find anyone within 30 miles, because they're all locked into larger new construction projects affiliated with either The Hermitage Club and/or 4 or 5 larger sized townhouse developments, the reality is, even before Mount Snow starts any of the proposed commercial and residential development that probably close to half of those "created jobs" could come from the construction industry.  Add in likely a few more realtors and your well on your way to "theoretically" creating all of those jobs as a results of ancillary benefits from the development using the EB-5 funds.....

The Hermitage factor is potentially a BIG help in the ancillary creation in the region, which is something quite different that the Jay/Q-Burke situation.....


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## Tin (Apr 11, 2016)

You will never need Viagra. Just think of Peak Resorts.


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## drjeff (Apr 11, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> Really?  I've never seen language that ancillary jobs are calculated in the equation.  If so, then those businesses should receive some of the funds, not just Mount Snow.
> 
> I think Jay and Burke both prove out that whatever metric they're using to determine job creation is a complete and utter joke.  It will be no different at Mount Snow.



Direct v. Indirect Jobs
Direct jobsare actual identifiable jobs for qualified employees located within the commercial enterprise into which the EB-5 investor has directly invested his or her capital. 
Indirect jobsare those jobs shown to have been created collaterally or as a result of capital invested in a commercial enterprise affiliated with a regional center by an EB-5 investor. 
The number of indirect jobs created through an EB-5 investor’s capital investment is based upon a business plan and a detailed economic analysis, which is evaluated and approved by USCIS during the approval and designation of a regional center for participation the Immigrant Investor Pilot Program. 


That's the direct text from the US Citizens and Immigration Services website about EB-% job creation jobs.  Not sure if there is or isn't a set ratio of direct to indirect jobs for the Mount Snow EB-5 proposal or not...


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 11, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> I think Jay and Burke both prove out that* whatever metric they're using to determine job creation is a complete and utter joke.  It will be no different at Mount Snow*.



Exactly; or any other EB-5 project or "jobs created" metric involving the government.  It would make your blood boil if you knew the details (SEE: Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 ), but fortunately for the American psyche, few people do.




drjeff said:


> *The number of indirect jobs created through an EB-5 investor’s capital investment is based upon a business plan and a detailed economic analysis*, which is evaluated and approved by USCIS during the approval and designation of a regional center for participation the Immigrant Investor Pilot Program.



Bwahahahahahah!!!!!


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## steamboat1 (Apr 11, 2016)

How does a $30m reservoir generate cash to pay back EB-5 investors?


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## thebigo (Apr 11, 2016)

Jully said:


> I wonder whether the 11.4 million in operating capital/free cash is pre or post season pass sales to this point.



I would imagine the vast majority of people opted for the payment plan, there was no incentive to pay it off up front. For our family any small incentive would have gotten us to pay in full, I suspect the same is true for many. One free ticket next year per pass if you pay in full?


----------



## yeggous (Apr 11, 2016)

thebigo said:


> I would imagine the vast majority of people opted for the payment plan, there was no incentive to pay it off up front. For our family any small incentive would have gotten us to pay in full, I suspect the same is true for many. One free ticket next year per pass if you pay in full?



We paid up front. There was a very strong incentive. Pay up front and you can pay with gift cards. That saved me $120 per pass, bringing the Explorer down to $480.


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## drjeff (Apr 11, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> How does a $30m reservoir generate cash to pay back EB-5 investors?



More reliable snowmaking and early season terrain coverage potential (they'll be able to pump twice as much water as they currently can and as such can make snow on a much more terrain at the same time as they can now when the weather cooperates) followed by a planned expansion from the current roughly 80% coverage up to 100% coverage in the few years post the reservoirs and accompanying snowmaking system reconfiguration coming online, which in theory should help increase skier/rider visits and make the property and company more profitable


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## yeggous (Apr 11, 2016)

drjeff said:


> More reliable snowmaking and early season terrain coverage potential (they'll be able to pump twice as much water as they currently can and as such can make snow on a much more terrain at the same time as they can now when the weather cooperates) followed by a planned expansion from the current roughly 80% coverage up to 100% coverage in the few years post the reservoirs and accompanying snowmaking system reconfiguration coming online, which in theory should help increase skier/rider visits and make the property and company more profitable



I don't get this. Don't they already have serious lift capacity issues? You're talking about a big increase in skier visits.


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## Newpylong (Apr 11, 2016)

Mount Snow does not have lift capacity issues. There are 3 high speed lifts out of the main base. North Face has dual triples.

What they do have is downhill capacity issues which is why expanding the snowmaking is crucial for them. At 70% coverage they are behind the other big players in S VT.

Not for or against EB-5 just providing some info on the mountain as I see it.


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## drjeff (Apr 11, 2016)

yeggous said:


> I don't get this. Don't they already have serious lift capacity issues? You're talking about a big increase in skier visits.



Yes and no.

They have plenty of lift capacity, even on the most crowded of days, once you get away from the base areas, rarely is there much of a line on the other lifts.  What handicaps them now, and this is a significant part of what the West Lake project will help with, is while to posted current snowmaking coverage percentage is listed at just over 80% in reality it's more like 66%, so that leaves a large amount (almost 150 acres) of terrain that can't be dependably covered in low snow years to help spread the crowds out and use that already existing excess lift capacity.

Furthermore, with the ability to pump twice as much water as they can now, in a "normal" weather year, they would anticipate being close to, if not at 100% open by the all important Christmas week once the snowmaking terrain expansion is completed within a few years of West Lake coming online.

More people - that's the hope, but there *should* be more acres of dependable snow if mother nature is cooperative to spread the extra people out over, and then there is also talk of some lift upgrades from fixed grip to highspeed , especially in the greatly underutilized Sunbrook area of the mountain once the snowmaking is increased to 100 percent back there.  That will definitely help spread the crowds out as right now very few people, because of the slow, often cold lift ride actually makes laps back there, and the hope is to change that


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## Pez (Apr 12, 2016)

Sunbrook is my favorite part of that hill.  Skiing this year was horrible there.  1 run and bear trap the entire season.  Until they put a high speed quad in it will never get busy over there.


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## DoublePlanker (Apr 12, 2016)

I don't have a problem with EB-5 (other than fraud or illegal activity ie. QBurke.)  What other sources of funding will help preserve the skiing businesses?   It looks like a dying industry except for the top end (Vail, etc.)

I'm guessing having successful ski areas and other related businesses are economic drivers in the areas leading to job growth and job preservation.


----------



## ss20 (Apr 12, 2016)

Pez said:


> Sunbrook is my favorite part of that hill.  Skiing this year was horrible there.  1 run and bear trap the entire season.  Until they put a high speed quad in it will never get busy over there.



A lot of people just think that a HSQ over there will instantly make it popular and be the only piece of infrastructure needed to make that area popular.  But you'd need snowmaking to support the additional traffic.  At least on Big Dipper, Little Dipper, and Moonbeam or One Small Step.  These are long trails that would require widening.  Very sizable investment, on top of a HSQ.  

I do hope it happens, though.  Not at all disagreeing with improvements over there.


----------



## ss20 (Apr 12, 2016)

Pez said:


> Sunbrook is my favorite part of that hill.  Skiing this year was horrible there.  1 run and bear trap the entire season.  Until they put a high speed quad in it will never get busy over there.



A lot of people just think that a HSQ over there will instantly make it popular and be the only piece of infrastructure needed to make that area popular.  But you'd need snowmaking to support the additional traffic.  At least on Big Dipper, Little Dipper, and Moonbeam or One Small Step.  These are long trails that would require widening.  Very sizable investment, on top of a HSQ.  

I do hope it happens, though.  Not at all disagreeing with improvements over there.


----------



## drjeff (Apr 12, 2016)

ss20 said:


> A lot of people just think that a HSQ over there will instantly make it popular and be the only piece of infrastructure needed to make that area popular.  But you'd need snowmaking to support the additional traffic.  At least on Big Dipper, Little Dipper, and Moonbeam or One Small Step.  These are long trails that would require widening.  Very sizable investment, on top of a HSQ.
> 
> I do hope it happens, though.  Not at all disagreeing with improvements over there.



The master plan for Sunbrook has the upgrading to 100% snowmaking occurring not before the lift upgrade - will it be the same year or snowmaking 1 year and then the lift upgrade the next? Time will tell...

Additionally in the master plan there is creation of a small snack shack and bathrooms down near the base of both of the lifts back there to further help encourage people to stay back there for some laps


----------



## Newpylong (Apr 12, 2016)

ss20 said:


> A lot of people just think that a HSQ over there will instantly make it popular and be the only piece of infrastructure needed to make that area popular.  But you'd need snowmaking to support the additional traffic.  At least on Big Dipper, Little Dipper, and Moonbeam or One Small Step.  These are long trails that would require widening.  Very sizable investment, on top of a HSQ.
> 
> I do hope it happens, though.  Not at all disagreeing with improvements over there.



The only trail section that might need to be widened to accommodate snowmaking (but more so the additional traffic) in the Sunbrook area is the flat section of Big Dipper after it merges with Little Dipper and before the final drop. The rest of that trail, Little Dipper, Moon Walk, Shooting Star, etc are already plenty wide.


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 12, 2016)

DoublePlanker said:


> I don't have a problem with EB-5 (other than fraud or illegal activity ie. QBurke.) * What other sources of funding will help preserve the skiing businesses? *  It looks like a dying industry except for the top end (Vail, etc.).



EB-5 expenditures aren't preserving anything.


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## benski (Apr 12, 2016)

Newpylong said:


> The only trail section that might need to be widened to accommodate snowmaking (but more so the additional traffic) in the Sunbrook area is the flat section of Big Dipper after it merges with Little Dipper and before the final drop. The rest of that trail, Little Dipper, Moon Walk, Shooting Star, etc are already plenty wide.


Its a quad already so wouldn't the new lift only slightly increase capacity unless a significant amount of the chairs are going up empty.


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## njdiver85 (Apr 12, 2016)

benski said:


> Its a quad already so wouldn't the new lift only slightly increase capacity unless a significant amount of the chairs are going up empty.



It's a very slow quad!


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## drjeff (Apr 12, 2016)

benski said:


> Its a quad already so wouldn't the new lift only slightly increase capacity unless a significant amount of the chairs are going up empty.



Exactly - my hunch is that capacity will be roughly the same, ride time will be greatly decreased!!

1 chair unloading every 6 seconds (the standard for most lifts) is still 600 chairs (theoretically without stoppages) an hour regardless of if the ride time is 4 minutes or 10 minutes


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## ss20 (Apr 12, 2016)

drjeff said:


> Exactly - my hunch is that capacity will be roughly the same, ride time will be greatly decreased!!
> 
> 1 chair unloading every 6 seconds (the standard for most lifts) is still 600 chairs (theoretically without stoppages) an hour regardless of if the ride time is 4 minutes or 10 minutes



But the only time the quad went up with 4 in each seat were midseason Saturday's when natural terrain was open.  The area was a ghost town this year.


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## Jully (Apr 12, 2016)

The HSQ would make it a more popular area, not increase lift capacity. Either way, without snowmaking the trails might not handle it very well.


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## steamboat1 (Apr 27, 2016)

http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=428


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## Smellytele (Apr 27, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=428



eek "[FONT=Georgia, Arial]Meanwhile, after purchasing Hunter  Mountain for $36.8 million and the poor 2015-16 season, Peak Resorts'  free cash account was nearly halved year to year by the end of January.   With long term debt of $118 million, much of it at 10% interest, it's  not known if Peak Resorts can obtain additional debt to fund off season  operations.  Peak Resorts' fiscal year ends on Saturday."[/FONT]


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## BenedictGomez (Apr 27, 2016)

Lets have some fun and look at the Date / schedule when SKIS has announced it's dividend & date payable:

1) 12/08/14 announced, (1st dividend) payable 02/20/15 (74 days after announcement)
2) 03/06/15 announced (89 days later), payable 05/20/15 (75 days after announcement)
3) 06/15/15 announced, (101 days later), payable 08/21/15 ( 67 days after announcement)
4) 09/18/15 announced, (95 days later), payable 11/25/15 (68 days after announcement)
5) 12/21/15 announced, (94 days later), payable 02/20/16 (61 days after announcement)
6) ????????  announced, (128 days & counting), payable ???, but should be roughly 5 weeks if schedule kept.


Now I'm not saying you should panic if you're a shareholder, but I'm not saying you shouldn't panic either.


----------



## Quietman (Apr 27, 2016)

Gee, here I am deciding on whether to pony up an extra $60 over last year for a seasons pass just to ski at the Crotch before the price goes up in a couple of days!


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## Bostonian (Apr 27, 2016)

Quietman said:


> Gee, here I am deciding on whether to pony up an extra $60 over last year for a seasons pass just to ski at the Crotch before the price goes up in a couple of days!



Go for it!  Peaks Pass is where are the cool kids are these days!


----------



## machski (Apr 27, 2016)

Until they go belly up.  I'd be a bit concerned of I already bought a pass.  This pricing was nothing more than an attempt to get some cash flow up quick.  Hope it generated alot for them.


----------



## yeggous (Apr 27, 2016)

machski said:


> Until they go belly up.  I'd be a bit concerned of I already bought a pass.  This pricing was nothing more than an attempt to get some cash flow up quick.  Hope it generated alot for them.



You have a biased perspective here. The pricing did little for the bulk of their New England mountains. Went up a bit for Crotched and down a bit for Wildcat and Attitash. Mount Snow was the only big change.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


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## deadheadskier (Apr 27, 2016)

I think he was mainly referring to generating some cash for off season operations.  I bet the overall nut to Peaks will only be marginally more for next season due to the discount.  However, we are all helping them pay their rent this summer; $99 a month from each of us.

Looking at some of their scary financials, the cheap passes almost looks more designed for a quick cash grab to survive the summer than driving volume for next year.

That said, I'm not sweating my investment being lost and Wildcat not opening next year.  It would appear Peaks definitely needs a great season though next year or their long term survival is questionable.


----------



## steamboat1 (Apr 27, 2016)

Yeah it's not like they have close to $2m in interest payments alone before they see a cent. Chicken feed.


----------



## deadheadskier (Apr 27, 2016)

I did say their financials looked scary.......


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## drjeff (Apr 27, 2016)

And yet with all this "arm chair ski area GM'ing" going on here, Peak posted up computer generated renditions of the new base lodge they're putting up to replace the one that burned down last Summer at Mad River Mtn in Ohio today, and yesterday on Mount Snow's GM's blog there's pictures of employees welding sections of new replacement snowmaking pipe to be installed this off season on a few trails.....

I am fully aware of their current cash flow issues, but the grandstanding seeming reports of their imminent demise that some here seem to be inferring might be a touch exaggerated in reality


----------



## 180 (Apr 27, 2016)

sure hope so...


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## steamboat1 (Apr 27, 2016)

Lets not forget the + 17% dividend they're presently paying on their stock.


----------



## Quietman (Apr 27, 2016)

Also interesting that as a pass holder from last year, I have not received a single direct attempt to encourage me to re-up this year via email or snail mail.  Very bad effort from a marketing point of view.


----------



## chuckstah (Apr 27, 2016)

Quietman said:


> Also interesting that as a pass holder from last year, I have not received a single direct attempt to encourage me to re-up this year via email or snail mail.  Very bad effort from a marketing point of view.



Very interesting.  I haven't had a pass to any Peak resort since Mt Snow and Attitash were part of ASC,  where I had a pass, but I'm getting flooded with emails daily to buy the new pass.  I think it's working, as I'm leaning toward buying it, and dumping my Boyne pass.  If Wildcat was open this coming weekend it would have been a done deal. I planned to purchase the pass at Wildcat Saturday to ski, and then hit SR Sunday for closing day.  Now I'm not sure.  May renew Boyne as I really like the Oct to May season.


----------



## steamboat1 (Apr 27, 2016)

Quietman said:


> Also interesting that as a pass holder from last year, I have not received a single direct attempt to encourage me to re-up this year via email or snail mail.  Very bad effort from a marketing point of view.


It's advertised on every ski website & for me pops up with google adds everywhere. Doesn't matter, I'm not interested. Already fully paid for my none Peak pass for next season.


----------



## Jully (Apr 27, 2016)

Quietman said:


> Also interesting that as a pass holder from last year, I have not received a single direct attempt to encourage me to re-up this year via email or snail mail.  Very bad effort from a marketing point of view.



I wonder if that's a glitch that is just impacting you or Crotched pass holders. I bought tickets to Wildcat in the Winter White sale this fall and a Vertical Value card two seasons ago and they received a big snail mail pamphlet on the pass.


----------



## Quietman (Apr 27, 2016)

Jully said:


> I wonder if that's a glitch that is just impacting you or Crotched pass holders. I bought tickets to Wildcat in the Winter White sale this fall and a Vertical Value card two seasons ago and they received a big snail mail pamphlet on the pass.



Not sure, but as I am in the marketing biz, I take notice of these things.  I belong in the "low hanging fruit category" and am definitely not an outlier. Interesting that you received a direct up-sell and I didn't even get a renewal attempt. At least they are making some kind of positive efforts before laying off staff for the summer.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Apr 28, 2016)

drjeff said:


> *I am fully aware of their current cash flow issues, but the grandstanding seeming reports of their imminent demise that some here seem to be inferring might be a touch exaggerated in reality*



 I dont think there's risk of "imminent demise", but I also dont think it's unreasonable to suggest that this is a very dangerous time for SKIS.   Their financials would suggest they're on the edge of a cliff with one foot on a banana peel.  They might well safely step back from the edge, but you dont want to be in the situation they're in. 



steamboat1 said:


> *Lets not forget the + 17% dividend they're presently paying *on their stock.



That sucker's toast.  SKIS will take a decent drop the day they cut that thing.


----------



## Bostonian (Apr 28, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> I dont think there's risk of "imminent demise", but I also dont think it's unreasonable to suggest that this is a very dangerous time for SKIS. Their financials would suggest they're on the edge of a cliff with one foot on a banana peel. They might well safely step back from the edge, but you dont want to be in the situation they're in.
> 
> 
> 
> That sucker's toast. SKIS will take a decent drop the day they cut that thing.



There is no imminent demise, SKIS along with all other resorts big and small are hurting this year. Hopefully with a more normal 2016-2017 ski season and additional skier visit revenue - especially for the Crotch, Wildcat and Attitash - it will balance things out and bounce back. The good news is looking forward according to noaa - here is November, December and January's outlook:







I will take that in a heart beat to help build the base for a better season than this year.


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## Smellytele (Apr 28, 2016)

Bostonian said:


> There is no imminent demise, SKIS along with all other resorts big and small are hurting this year. Hopefully with a more normal 2016-2017 ski season and additional skier visit revenue - especially for the Crotch, Wildcat and Attitash - it will balance things out and bounce back. The good news is looking forward according to noaa - here is November, December and January's outlook:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



So it could be good, could be normal, could be bad. I could put out that prediction for 30 years from now. Useless.


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## Bostonian (Apr 28, 2016)

Smellytele said:


> So it could be good, could be normal, could be bad. I could put out that prediction for 30 years from now. Useless.



I would take "normal" and average any day over what we had this past year.  let's just hope this past winter was an anomaly rather than the new norm.


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## VTKilarney (Apr 28, 2016)

Bostonian said:


> I would take "normal" and average any day over what we had this past year.  let's just hope this past winter was an anomaly rather than the new norm.



Without getting into the climate change debate, I don't think that there is any credible dispute that this past winter was an anomaly.  Climate change doesn't happen in one year.


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## drjeff (Apr 28, 2016)

VTKilarney said:


> Without getting into the climate change debate, I don't think that there is any credible dispute that this past winter was an anomaly.  Climate change doesn't happen in one year.




Exactly!

And while I haven't crunched the numbers myself,  I'd guess that if you took the data from the last 2 winters and averaged them together, you'd likely find that the time period of Fall 2014 through Spring 2016 ends up being fairly close to "average" even though both of the last 2 winters were far from "average"


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## Newpylong (Apr 28, 2016)

If we have a good winter all of this will be a distant memory. Mount Snow's EB5 funds will be released and they will start printing money out again along with Hunter.


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## yeggous (Apr 28, 2016)

drjeff said:


> Exactly!
> 
> And while I haven't crunched the numbers myself,  I'd guess that if you took the data from the last 2 winters and averaged them together, you'd likely find that the time period of Fall 2014 through Spring 2016 ends up being fairly close to "average" even though both of the last 2 winters were far from "average"



By what metric and where? Last year's temperatures were actually very close to the long term average as far as records go back. It is only relative to the last 30 years that it felt cold.

Snowfall is very, very difficult to measure. No question it was high by any measure on the coastal plain, but was near if now a bit below average in northern interior New England.

This year was blow torch warm and low snow by any measure.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


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## machski (Apr 28, 2016)

Newpylong said:


> If we have a good winter all of this will be a distant memory. Mount Snow's EB5 funds will be released and they will start printing money out again along with Hunter.



Regardless, and this was unfortunate for SKIS, they made a large purchase (Hunter) at the front of an abyssal season.  Had they seen this coming, I doubt they would have made that purchase.  Hindsight is always 20/20 I know, but ASC's downhill slide came after a similar big purchase push and awful season in the East and Rockies.  I hope they do pull through, but their heaviest assets are all in the North East.  Better hope VT releases the EB5 (but I wouldn't bet on it.  The $$ for West Lake doesn't seem like it will generate the necessary jobs.  The will really need to prove it now given the Jay/Burke fiasco to get those $$)


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## steamboat1 (Apr 28, 2016)

Didn't Peak finance the majority of the Hunter purchase with a balloon loan with only interest payments due for 20 years?


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## yeggous (Apr 28, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> Didn't Peak finance the majority of the Hunter purchase with a balloon loan with only interest payments due for 20 years?



Yes, with a crazy high interest rate too. That's how they finance almost all of their acquisitions. The exception is Wildcat which was seller financed at a reasonable interest rate.


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## sull1102 (May 1, 2016)

Interesting note, last I drove by Carinthia and they have started clearing trees between the base lodge, parking lot, and Glen Run Condos. This area is for one of the new hotel buildings, not the base lodge. I was really surprised to see any work going on at all over there.


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## drjeff (May 1, 2016)

sull1102 said:


> Interesting note, last I drove by Carinthia and they have started clearing trees between the base lodge, parking lot, and Glen Run Condos. This area is for one of the new hotel buildings, not the base lodge. I was really surprised to see any work going on at all over there.



Those 2 clearings are for the base lodge redevelopment (the one below the lodge and the existing condo's) and the new pumphouse for the West Lake snowmaking project (at the top of the ski baba lift behind the bottom terminal of Heavy Metal)

Peak is ready to go if/when the EB-5 money is released. Not to mention they've also been welding segments of snowmaking pipe to be replaced this summer as well

Sometimes the gloom and doom that people that just read press releases project isn't quite the same thing that is actually happening when you see things in person....


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## sull1102 (May 1, 2016)

Yeah it was great to see pipe being assembled over on launch pad, trees being cleared out, just progress being made.


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## deadheadskier (May 1, 2016)

Sure, but that much debt and at such  high interest rates doesn't concern you as a Peaks pass holder?  It certainly concerns me.  

Not only am I concerned about their ability to maintain ownership, but also funding upkeep and improvements.  While the snowmaking improvements at Wildcat have been awesome, there's still a lot of pipe on the hill that needs to be replaced to function properly if at all.


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## sull1102 (May 1, 2016)

I can't speak to the 'Cat, but over here I can say as a Peak Pass holder I'm confident in their ownership of MS and seeing action on multiple projects just yesterday was a big help. Of course I agree, having that debt hanging there could be a problem down the road, but I doubt they would buy Hunter in December and five months later have no plan on place.


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## machski (May 1, 2016)

sull1102 said:


> I can't speak to the 'Cat, but over here I can say as a Peak Pass holder I'm confident in their ownership of MS and seeing action on multiple projects just yesterday was a big help. Of course I agree, having that debt hanging there could be a problem down the road, but I doubt they would buy Hunter in December and five months later have no plan on place.



True, but nor could they foresee how bad this season would turn out after that purchase.  Their plans they had are likely being re-evaluated and adjusted right now as I doubt they are where they hoped to be today.  If the EB-5 $$ is delayed (say 12 months at the earliest from now which I have to think is not unrealistic), where will their plans be??  Let's just hope next year is an October to April blockbuster of a season.


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## SIKSKIER (May 9, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> Sure, but that much debt and at such  high interest rates doesn't concern you as a Peaks pass holder?  It certainly concerns me.
> 
> Not only am I concerned about their ability to maintain ownership, but also funding upkeep and improvements.  While the snowmaking improvements at Wildcat have been awesome, there's still a lot of pipe on the hill that needs to be replaced to function properly if at all.



Looks like you had reason to be concerned.http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=433


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## yeggous (May 9, 2016)

If anyone is still interested in buying the Peaks Pass at the early purchase price, let me know. I have a magical code that can make that happen until the end of May.


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## Jully (May 9, 2016)

SIKSKIER said:


> Looks like you had reason to be concerned.http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=433



At the same time though, it says their off season activities  are fully funded. So there's that at least! Still concerned though.


----------



## Brad J (May 9, 2016)

yeggous said:


> If anyone is still interested in buying the Peaks Pass at the early purchase price, let me know. I have a magical code that can make that happen until the end of May.



Pm me please, I was on the fence and then went away for weekend and totally forgot !!!!!


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## yeggous (May 9, 2016)

Brad J said:


> Pm me please, I was on the fence and then went away for weekend and totally forgot !!!!!



Sent.


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## steamboat1 (May 11, 2016)

My guess is they took the loan.
Peak Resorts:

Peak Resorts announced what was already known by many—a hiatus in its dividend, tied to a cash crunch resulting from a triple whammy of a terrible ski season, $12 million of pre-funding of an E-B project, and an unexpected delay in the government approval to release funds raised to finance the EB-5 project. At the same time, however, the company surprised by saying its new multi-mountain Peak Pass—which is enabled by the late season acquisition of Hunter Mountain—is driving a 40% spike in season pass unit sales and a 29% rise in season pass dollar volumes. This bodes well... particularly if next season we get better ski weather. 

The company has said that the dividend is dependent on approval from the government to release $52 million of funds raised via EB-5 and currently held in escrow for a Mount Snow development project. So this argues that if the approval comes through, the dividend could come back. Peak pre-spent $12 million for this development effort, in anticipation of getting the funds released by now. The release is only waiting on approval of the first of 104 investor petitions in the financing group. Peak says it is not aware of any problem with the application, and that it is just suffering from an approval delay that is similar to what other EB-5 programs are going through, because of a rise in EB-5 application volumes. Peak's pre-spending, combined with a terrible ski season, and the hiatus in EB-5 fund release, pushed Peak's cash balance to $11.5 million at the end of January, from $20.9 million in the year-ago period. The dividend payout was about $1.9 million per quarter. EB-5 work will likely remain suspended until the application is approved. As time goes on, this creates risk that we miss the summer/fall window to move work on this project ahead.

On a more positive note, its Peak pass product is proving very popular. This multi-resort ski pass is essentially a Northeast corollary to Vail's popular Epic pass, as it allows skiers to visit either Hunter or Mount Snow. Also included are Attitash, Wildcat and Crotched Mountains in New Hampshire, and Jack Frost and Big Boulder in Pennsylvania. Peak said that because of this new product, pre-season sales of season passes are up 40% in units and 29% in revenues. This looks encouraging for next season, particularly if weather is typical, rather than unusually warm like last winter in the Northeast


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## EPB (May 11, 2016)

It's never a good sign when you need EB-5 funds released in order to pay your dividends...


----------



## yeggous (May 11, 2016)

eastern powder baby said:


> It's never a good sign when you need EB-5 funds released in order to pay your dividends...



It's never a good sign when you're paying dividends when you're saddle but debt with 10+% interest.

I'm increasingly convinced that the dividend is to prop up the stock price. And the stock is to give an exit strategy to the private ownership.


----------



## EPB (May 11, 2016)

Yeah having at least somewhat liquid shares is always a plus. I don't know how a credit committee ever decides that lending to these guys, nevermind the dividends or agreeing to help finance the purchase of Hunter, is a good idea.


----------



## machski (May 11, 2016)

SIKSKIER said:


> Looks like you had reason to be concerned.http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=433



If they took an additional Loan from EPR, the dividends are shut down until repayment of said loan is complete.  So, if the dividend was holding up the stock price, then the stock price is likely to dive even lower if this has in fact happened.


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## BenedictGomez (May 11, 2016)

eastern powder baby said:


> It's never a good sign when you need EB-5 funds released in order to pay your dividends...



It was odd wording in that press release. 

  They should have noted that if EB-5 isn't released perhaps they'll need those dividend funds for future payments on the work, which surely must be what they meant, but they didn't say that, so it just sounded weird.


----------



## EPB (May 11, 2016)

Yeah broadcasting that the way they did was in poor form. Very surprising.


----------



## Jully (May 11, 2016)

I took it as they are trying to use some other funds to push forward the EB-5 project in the meantime. Not sure if they can do that though.


----------



## steamboat1 (May 11, 2016)

Jully said:


> I took it as they are trying to use some other funds to push forward the EB-5 project in the meantime. Not sure if they can do that though.



I think they already laid out $12m of their own money for the West Lake project which they hope will be repaid when EB-5 funds held in escrow are released. Sounds like construction on the project is halted until then with only some ground clearing & pipe welding happening. Part of the reason they're cash strapped I guess.


----------



## Newpylong (May 11, 2016)

West Lake itself was pretty much completed on their own dime last year. Now waiting for the EB-5 funds to construct the dams, pump houses, pipes between these, and connecting all of this to the main that goes up to the base of the mountain.

I imagine that will be very difficult without the EB-5 capital before the start of the upcoming season.


----------



## yeggous (May 12, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> My guess is they took the loan.
> Peak Resorts:
> 
> Peak Resorts announced what was already known by many—a hiatus in its dividend, tied to a cash crunch resulting from a triple whammy of a terrible ski season, $12 million of pre-funding of an E-B project, and an unexpected delay in the government approval to release funds raised to finance the EB-5 project. At the same time, however, the company surprised by saying its new multi-mountain Peak Pass—which is enabled by the late season acquisition of Hunter Mountain—is driving a 40% spike in season pass unit sales and a 29% rise in season pass dollar volumes. This bodes well... particularly if next season we get better ski weather.
> ...



I think these pass sale numbers are a bit skewed. Keep in mind that early season prices ended a month later last year. Some portion of this increase is likely to be due to front loading of sales.


----------



## joshua segal (May 13, 2016)

yeggous said:


> I think these pass sale numbers are a bit skewed. Keep in mind that early season prices ended a month later last year. Some portion of this increase is likely to be due to front loading of sales.


Maybe, but in the case of Crotched, there is usually a lot of marketing of the next season's pass during March when there are lots of skiers on the hill.  Mountain ops did an amazing job staying open as late as they did, but there were no crowds to whom to market the passes.  Based on that, I can't interpret the strong early sales as anything but good!

BTW, stock brokers always say, "past results are no guarantee of future performance" and the same is true of ski seasons. Never-the-less, history shows that in a typical good year season pass sales rise for the next season and in a bad year, season pass sales go down for the following season.


----------



## yeggous (May 13, 2016)

joshua segal said:


> Maybe, but in the case of Crotched, there is usually a lot of marketing of the next season's pass during March when there are lots of skiers on the hill.  Mountain ops did an amazing job staying open as late as they did, but there were no crowds to whom to market the passes.  Based on that, I can't interpret the strong early sales as anything but good!
> 
> BTW, stock brokers always say, "past results are no guarantee of future performance" and the same is true of ski seasons. Never-the-less, history shows that in a typical good year season pass sales rise for the next season and in a bad year, season pass sales go down for the following season.



They also failed to mention what percentage of the pass sales increase could be due to the inclusion of Hunter. This is not a fair comparison.


----------



## drjeff (May 13, 2016)

And yet Peak announced today that they're moving forward with the haul rope replacement on the Flying Yankee at Attitash - yup, things certainly could be better financially now for Peak, however they're not exactly in a Magic like situation as some are trying to insinuate....


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## steamboat1 (May 13, 2016)

drjeff said:


> And yet Peak announced today that they're moving forward with the haul rope replacement on the Flying Yankee at Attitash - yup, things certainly could be better financially now for Peak, however they're not exactly in a Magic like situation as some are trying to insinuate....


Yep Magic is not $118m, possibly $128m, in debt carrying 10%+ interest rates.


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## joshua segal (May 14, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> Yep Magic is not $118m, possibly $128m, in debt carrying 10%+ interest rates.



And Magic is barely open.  I'll take Peak's problems over Magic's any day!


----------



## drjeff (May 25, 2016)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/peak-resorts-announces-mount-snow-201500115.html

Boom! Bring it on!


----------



## thetrailboss (May 25, 2016)

drjeff said:


> http://finance.yahoo.com/news/peak-resorts-announces-mount-snow-201500115.html
> 
> Boom! Bring it on!



Good news


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----------



## jaytrem (May 25, 2016)

MS has also been replacing the snowmaking pipe on Roller Coaster....


----------



## Newpylong (May 25, 2016)

Looks like 8" water and 4" air coming out, interesting combo for that run. I can see why they want to replace it besides age.


----------



## WoodCore (May 25, 2016)

Mount Snow's EB-5 money has been approved.  http://digital.vpr.net/post/eb-5-money-mount-snow-project-released


----------



## drjeff (May 25, 2016)

Newpylong said:


> Looks like 8" water and 4" air coming out, interesting combo for that run. I can see why they want to replace it besides age.



Since rollercoaster is now a mix of mainly portable fanguns on roughly the upper 1/2 and Snowlogic DV4's on the lower 1/2 (at least last season as the year before they had the lower 1/2 lined almost exclusively with HKD Impulses, so who knows if they'll tweak once again their low e air/water selection on Rollercoaster this summer) that 8"/4" mix should have plenty of capacity for when they light it up


----------



## ss20 (May 25, 2016)

Sweet.  Now can they catch up and finish within the next 6 months...


----------



## Newpylong (May 25, 2016)

drjeff said:


> Since rollercoaster is now a mix of mainly portable fanguns on roughly the upper 1/2 and Snowlogic DV4's on the lower 1/2 (at least last season as the year before they had the lower 1/2 lined almost exclusively with HKD Impulses, so who knows if they'll tweak once again their low e air/water selection on Rollercoaster this summer) that 8"/4" mix should have plenty of capacity for when they light it up



8/4" coming out not in. That's new 6" epoxy coated on the right it looks like. The other is probably also going to be 6". Much more common than 8/4.


----------



## steamboat1 (May 26, 2016)

My only beef is I can't see new snowmaking infrastructure, a new base lodge & some condo's creating over 1,000 new jobs which is the requirement for the EB-5 money being used. It's said EB-5 can't be used for new lifts because a new lift doesn't create enough jobs. How many "new" jobs does a new snowmaking system create especially since there was already snow making jobs with their existing system. Same applies to an old base lodge versus a new base lodge, jobs already existed. Yes the condos will create new jobs but not anywhere 1,000. Yes I've heard the story about new jobs being created in the area & not just at the mountain because of increased visitation but wouldn't a new lift increase visits too? Yet EB-5 money can't be used for a new lift. I just can't see how the proposed projects meet the requirements of job creation.


----------



## deadheadskier (May 26, 2016)

It definitely won't meet the requirement. Even if you factor in the added job at the pillow factory somewhere (likely overseas anyhow)


----------



## Edd (May 26, 2016)

I wonder if there's any wiggle room in the definition of "permanent" job that the applicants count on.


----------



## Smellytele (May 26, 2016)

I thought they were using the "save jobs" clause. ???


----------



## slatham (May 26, 2016)

You sure its 1,000 and it's NEW jobs? I thought in that region there was also allowance for job retention? If it is a 1,000 new jobs, it must be for the overall project which includes not only Carinthia base but also Sundance. But I do not know, this is a question.


----------



## steamboat1 (May 26, 2016)

Smellytele said:


> I thought they were using the "save jobs" clause. ???


Was Mount Snow a troubled business like Sugarbush was? I find that unlikely.


----------



## steamboat1 (May 26, 2016)

slatham said:


> You sure its 1,000 and it's NEW jobs? I thought in that region there was also allowance for job retention? If it is a 1,000 new jobs, it must be for the overall project which includes not only Carinthia base but also Sundance. But I do not know, this is a question.



Using job retention is only allowed when a business is deemed to be troubled. Vt. already has a special clause for being a depressed area which allows EB-5 investors the opportunity to invest only $500,000 to receive a green card. In other non depressed areas of the country the minimum investment is $1,000,000.
Sugarbush was allowed to use the troubled business clause so they only needed to prove job retention. Jay Peak & Burke were not. I haven't read anything saying Mount Snow was declared a troubled business.
With $52m in EB-5 money being used the requirement for new job creation is 1,040 jobs.


----------



## slatham (May 26, 2016)

After last winter, all VT ski areas are "troubled" - skiers too! I'm down right disturbed!


----------



## BenedictGomez (May 26, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> It's said EB-5 can't be used for new lifts because a new lift doesn't create enough jobs. *How many "new" jobs does a new snowmaking system create especially since there was already snow making jobs with their existing system. Same applies to an old base lodge versus a new base lodge, jobs already existed.*



They're likely employing the economically bogus, _"jobs saved"_ sham metric which I've written about here before.


----------



## steamboat1 (May 26, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> They're likely employing the economically bogus, _"jobs saved"_ sham metric which I've written about here before.


I've already addressed that BG. Unless they were categorized as a troubled business they can't use that metric. I don't remember reading anything saying that they were. After all they just installed a multimillion dollar bubble six pack a couple of years earlier using their own funds albeit borrowed. Doesn't sound like a troubled business to me.


----------



## cdskier (May 26, 2016)

I'd be curious to know as well where Mt Snow said the jobs would come from in the info they sent to investors. Even Mt Snow's EB5 website doesn't list any of that type of info. I can see this creating some additional jobs at Mt Snow directly or just in the area overall if they really get more visitors as they think they will, but nowhere near the 1000+ that they technically need.


----------



## mbedle (May 26, 2016)

Most of the jobs that they count are not located at the resort. I've talked about this on the burke thread and you need to think a little outside of the box to consider how many jobs this project creates. It goes as deep as counting a percentage of a person that manufactures the soap used in the lodge, the boxes that hold the soap, the fixtures, the carpet, the tile, the person who makes the steel to produce the pipes, the person that makes the pumps, the wielding tanks, the additional staff at the local convince store due to increased traffic. It doesn't have to result in a person getting hired full time solely for this project. Hence the reason they can only take a percentage of the credit for indirect jobs.


----------



## deadheadskier (May 26, 2016)

That's all well and good, I just think most people think the formula for figuring that stuff out involves fuzzy math.


----------



## thetrailboss (May 26, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> Using job retention is only allowed when a business is deemed to be troubled. Vt. already has a special clause for being a depressed area which allows EB-5 investors the opportunity to invest only $500,000 to receive a green card. In other non depressed areas of the country the minimum investment is $1,000,000.
> Sugarbush was allowed to use the troubled business clause so they only needed to prove job retention. Jay Peak & Burke were not. I haven't read anything saying Mount Snow was declared a troubled business.
> With $52m in EB-5 money being used the requirement for new job creation is 1,040 jobs.



The $500k vs $1 mill is based on the demographics of the respective area being economically depressed.  


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## steamboat1 (May 26, 2016)

thetrailboss said:


> The $500k vs $1 mill is based on the demographics of the respective area being economically depressed.


Huh??? VT. is over 90% one demographic & it's not inner city children.


----------



## sull1102 (May 26, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> Huh??? VT. is over 90% one demographic & it's not inner city children.



Huh? Vermont's economy is hurting BAD and has been for some time. Southern VT has been declared an economic development zone stretching from Brattleboro to Bennington and going north from there. This area needs every job possible.


----------



## steamboat1 (May 26, 2016)

This used to be a manufacturing & farming economy neither of which is done here anymore. Just look at the label on your shirt or where your produce came from. Neither of which changes VT's demographic.


----------



## cdskier (May 26, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> This used to be a manufacturing & farming economy neither of which is done here anymore. Just look at the label on your shirt or where your produce came from. Neither of which changes VT's demographic.



My ski socks are made in VT!


----------



## steamboat1 (May 26, 2016)

cdskier said:


> My ski socks are made in VT!


What's a ski sock?

I just wear nylon socks likely made somewhere in Asia.


----------



## cdskier (May 26, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> What's a ski sock?
> 
> I just wear nylon socks likely made somewhere in Asia.



http://darntough.com/men/mens-ski-ride/padded-over-the-calf-ultralight

I first tried these 3 years ago or so and have never looked back...


----------



## steamboat1 (May 26, 2016)

cdskier said:


> http://darntough.com/men/mens-ski-ride/padded-over-the-calf-ultralight
> 
> I first tried these 3 years ago or so and have never looked back...


Never had those problems. Good boots beat good socks any day. I wonder where my boots were manufactured? Where are Solomon boots manufactured?


----------



## mbedle (May 27, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> That's all well and good, I just think most people think the formula for figuring that stuff out involves fuzzy math.



I am sure there is some fuzzy math. But also remember they are not just filling in a number on every application and stating that they created 10 jobs. An other thing to keep in mind is the indirect job counts are done by an outside firm. It is not like Mount Snow is calling up pump manufactures and trying to find out if they hired someone. These job counts are not specific to each eb-5 project and are used by a lot of different companies and organizations.


----------



## Newpylong (May 27, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> Huh??? VT. is over 90% one demographic & it's not inner city children.



You're not looking hard enough if you don't see poverty in VT.


----------



## cdskier (May 27, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> Never had those problems. Good boots beat good socks any day. I wonder where my boots were manufactured? Where are Solomon boots manufactured?



I never implied that you should try to fix boot problems with socks :razz:

No idea where Salomon makes their boots. I'm sure it isn't VT though!


----------



## steamboat1 (May 27, 2016)

Newpylong said:


> You're not looking hard enough if you don't see poverty in VT.


As I already mentioned VT. is classified as a depressed area hence only a $500,000 EB-5 investment required to get a green card versus $1,000,000 in non depressed areas.


----------



## mbedle (May 27, 2016)

Not to sure about the poverty issue in Vermont - it has one of the lowest poverty rates in the US. I am pretty sure Vermont got designated as a TEA because of its rural nature.


----------



## steamboat1 (May 27, 2016)

mbedle said:


> Not to sure about the poverty issue in Vermont - it has one of the lowest poverty rates in the US. I am pretty sure Vermont got designated as a TEA because of its rural nature.


As of 2014 the VT. poverty rate was 12.3% compared to the national average of 15.8%.


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## mbedle (May 27, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> As of 2014 the VT. poverty rate was 12.3% compared to the national average of 15.8%.



Based on 2015 numbers, it is ranked 10th with a poverty rate of 9.7% (US = 12.6%). 2010 - 2014 average poverty rate was 13.4% (US = 16%).


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## sull1102 (May 28, 2016)

mbedle said:


> Not to sure about the poverty issue in Vermont - it has one of the lowest poverty rates in the US. I am pretty sure Vermont got designated as a TEA because of its rural nature.



Take a ride through Bennington or Brattleboro sometime, drive through the smaller towns on the small backroads. 60% or more of storefronts are closed and shuttered up. You'll drove down roads that every single property, barns, farms, houses, all of it is for sale and prices are sad. If you only go to the resorts and stay nearby then it would paint a very different picture than what is going on most places.


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## steamboat1 (May 28, 2016)

sull1102 said:


> Take a ride through Bennington or Brattleboro sometime, drive through the smaller towns on the small backroads. 60% or more of storefronts are closed and shuttered up. You'll drove down roads that every single property, barns, farms, houses, all of it is for sale and prices are sad. If you only go to the resorts and stay nearby then it would paint a very different picture than what is going on most places.


That goes for all of Northern New England. No more manufacturing jobs & produce is imported from elsewhere. They say the U.S. is now a service economy. What services do these people need besides financial help since there are no jobs. Immigrants & refugees get more help than our own people.


----------



## bigbob (May 28, 2016)

I would not say that all manufacturing jobs are gone in NNE. In the part of NH I live in Turbo Cam just built it's second or third  factory, Albany International just built a new factory in Rochester to manufacture composite aircraft parts. in Portsmouth, Lonza Biologics is expanding again. Manchester /Londonderry just had 2 new shipping centers built next to the airport and Amazon is going to build there also. Our statewide unemployment rate of about 2.6% is one of the lowest in the country and the state is not giving away freebees like NY state is to lure jobs back.


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## machski (May 28, 2016)

bigbob said:


> I would not say that all manufacturing jobs are gone in NNE. In the part of NH I live in Turbo Cam just built it's second or third  factory, Albany International just built a new factory in Rochester to manufacture composite aircraft parts. in Portsmouth, Lonza Biologics is expanding again. Manchester /Londonderry just had 2 new shipping centers built next to the airport and Amazon is going to build there also. Our statewide unemployment rate of about 2.6% is one of the lowest in the country and the state is not giving away freebees like NY state is to lure jobs back.



BigBob, I live in this corner of NH as well but I would never consider this to be NNE.  The southeast corner of NH is different solely because of its proximity to Boston.  Same is true of South coastal ME up through Portland.  Any big industry going in in say, Laconia?  Not so much.  The Lebanon/Hanover area may be the one exception outside of SENH.


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## deadheadskier (May 28, 2016)

Farming actually is on the rise in Northern New England. 

It's got a ways to go, but the industry is in a growth phase. Between farmers markets and all the available CSAs it's fairly easy to get much of your produce locally produced for much of the year.

https://www.mainefarmlandtrust.org/can-maine-lead-new-england-to-a-farming-renaissance/

http://m.fosters.com/apps/pbcs.dll/...WS_01/140509674/0/FOSNEWS02&Template=printart


https://learn.uvm.edu/blog-sustainability/vermont-farm-and-food-economy-is-growing


----------



## AdironRider (May 28, 2016)

machski said:


> BigBob, I live in this corner of NH as well but I would never consider this to be NNE.  The southeast corner of NH is different solely because of its proximity to Boston.  Same is true of South coastal ME up through Portland.  Any big industry going in in say, Laconia?  Not so much.  The Lebanon/Hanover area may be the one exception outside of SENH.



You seem to be asking a lot when the state is only so large. Every town isn't going to have a manufacturing center. That doesn't exist anywhere, nor did it ever. 

I think most people consider Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine to be considered Northern New England as well. No doubt the 95 corridor does see more as a result of 95, as well as the Downeaster rail service, but that has been the case since the highway system was done in the 50's. 

The locavore movement has really done wonders for NE farming. I'm sure its still a pain in the ass compared to Nebraska or California to farm in New England, but you can certainly make a living doing it again.


----------



## thetrailboss (May 28, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> Huh??? VT. is over 90% one demographic & it's not inner city children.



Economic demographics. 


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## steamboat1 (May 28, 2016)

thetrailboss said:


> Economic demographics.


http://www.vtlmi.info/profile2014.pdf


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## Newpylong (May 29, 2016)

AdironRider said:


> You seem to be asking a lot when the state is only so large. Every town isn't going to have a manufacturing center. That doesn't exist anywhere, nor did it ever.
> 
> I think most people consider Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine to be considered Northern New England as well. No doubt the 95 corridor does see more as a result of 95, as well as the Downeaster rail service, but that has been the case since the highway system was done in the 50's.
> 
> The locavore movement has really done wonders for NE farming. I'm sure its still a pain in the ass compared to Nebraska or California to farm in New England, but you can certainly make a living doing it again.



At the risk of going off topic further, there's a small organic farm (okay not so small anymore) down the road here that started out with CSAs and selling only local but has been so successful now he sells to the Coops in the region and even Whole Foods down in Nashua. It is awesome to see things in the region like this and have local options and become more self sufficient. I may be uncapitalist with this but I feel It's the way it should be! I like to know where my food comes from and it makes our local economy stronger.


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## BenedictGomez (May 30, 2016)

mbedle said:


> *Most of the jobs that they count are not located at the resort. *I've talked about this on the burke thread and *you need to think a little outside of the box to consider how many jobs this project creates*.



That's one way to put it. lol



Newpylong said:


> *You're not looking hard enough if you don't see poverty in VT.*



The problem in the discussion is the fact that most people assume they know what the word "poverty" means, but the reality is the majority of people dont know what the word poverty means.


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## yeggous (May 30, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> That's one way to put it. lol
> 
> 
> 
> The problem in the discussion is the fact that most people assume they know what the word "poverty" means, but the reality is the majority of people dont know what the word poverty means.



I'm on my way back from Arkansas. I spent the weekend in the Ozarks. I think I have a pretty good idea.


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## thetrailboss (May 30, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> That's one way to put it. lol
> 
> 
> 
> The problem in the discussion is the fact that most people assume they know what the word "poverty" means, but the reality is the majority of people dont know what the word poverty means.



Having grown up in the NEK, yes I've seen real poverty firsthand. 


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## SkiFanE (May 30, 2016)

Poverty is so sad. But after spending lots of time in Colombia - I have less sympathy in the U.S., I suppose. Hate saying that - but Cripes - you get govt help. You are disabled and can't work, govt helps. Not enough to to live middle class, obviously. But there is a safety net. In Colombia - you get nothing. No govt help. Ever. Never. Only thing you get is when you have a child, you get about equivalent of $200 - so many large poor families - can get a $200 payment every year if you plan correctly. The minimum wage is <$2/hr.  It baffles me. Relatives all have maids - about $15/day. It blows my mind how people can live on that and still have shoes and clothes and food. I've spent much time trying to figure it out. Basically, it seems, people help each other. Families are in it together. They don't waste a scrap. They pick to find anything, sell anything. One maid sold trash bags for extra $. Poverty in the U.S. sucks - but also less of a "village" mentality here which hurts the poor.  And no poor people are obese like in the U.S. (I work at safety net hospital and it's disgusting). They live on edge of city - basically squat on land along side mountains built up over the years - no roads or water.....imagine going to base of Superstar to get your water every day and lug it up (probably why no obesity lol). So yeah - poverty of that level rarely exists in the U.S.   But I will say - poor areas in U.S. are pretty disgusting. People have little pride. Down there - slums are clean and not smelly - people have more pride.  Maybe because poverty rate is quite high - more are poor than not?  There is no middle class. I can see US getting closer to that. And one bad thing about such minuscule wages is anyone can be bought - so corruption runs rampant. Police make peanuts - why would they uphold law for $20/day when you can be bought for $100/day?  Anyway...a couple beers at dinner and my blabbing begins lmao. But as a kid once I asked my dad when there will be no more poor people. He said "never, wel'll always need people to do the jobs no one else wants to do". And sadly...he's right. Who would chose to clean bathrooms at McD's?  Definatley a motivating thought to keep me in school and working.


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## dlague (May 31, 2016)

thetrailboss said:


> Having grown up in the NEK, yes I've seen real poverty firsthand.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



Same here!  I have class mates, one comes to mind in particular,  that graduated from high school and partied for many years never settling down.  Today he complains that he can't afford anything on the money he gets from the government and it is not worth getting a job since minimum wage is so low.


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## BenedictGomez (May 31, 2016)

SkiFanE said:


> Poverty is so sad. But after spending lots of time in Colombia - I have less sympathy in the U.S.



Not many places in the world where most "poor people" have cable television, air conditioning, and cell phones.  God bless the USA.


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## drjeff (Jun 1, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Not many places in the world where most "poor people" have cable television, air conditioning, and cell phones.  God bless the USA.



The average "poor" person in the US is still "richer" than over 90% of the world's population......

There's a factual stat to ponder for a few minutes.....


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## ss20 (Jun 8, 2016)

Mount Snow removing "Ski Baba" chairlift (beginner lift at the base of Carinthia) and putting in a carpet.  They said it took two days to remove it.  Part of the Carinthia master plan was to remove this lift and put in a covered magic carpet.  I don't know if this is _the_ carpet lift that will ultimately be there (these things can be moved in under a day with a decent maintenance crew) but it is a start.  Good to see money flowing nonetheless, hopefully EB-5 money and not Peak's money.  

Link to Carinthia overview plan: https://anrweb.vt.gov/PubDocs/ANR/Planning/2W1281-1/Plans/Exhibit%20008%20-%20Carinthia%20Site%20Plan%20Rendering.pdf

_If_ they were to start condo construction, Heavy Metal has to be moved up the hill a bit.  Interesting to see if that gets done this offseason.  

Guess the chairlift trivia question "What is the only lift in Vermont not to have a safety bar?" has now bit the dust :lol:


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## drjeff (Jun 8, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Mount Snow removing "Ski Baba" chairlift (beginner lift at the base of Carinthia) and putting in a carpet.  They said it took two days to remove it.  Part of the Carinthia master plan was to remove this lift and put in a covered magic carpet.  I don't know if this is _the_ carpet lift that will ultimately be there (these things can be moved in under a day with a decent maintenance crew) but it is a start.  Good to see money flowing nonetheless, hopefully EB-5 money and not Peak's money.
> 
> Link to Carinthia overview plan: https://anrweb.vt.gov/PubDocs/ANR/P...hibit 008 - Carinthia Site Plan Rendering.pdf
> 
> ...



That was going to end for this coming season regardless, as even if Ski Baba stayed this summer, per the Mountain Manager, the State of VT Tramway Board was going to finally require them to put safety bars on it before it could operate this coming season.


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## dlague (Jun 9, 2016)

drjeff said:


> That was going to end for this coming season regardless, as even if Ski Baba stayed this summer, per the Mountain Manager, the State of VT Tramway Board was going to finally require them to put safety bars on it before it could operate this coming season.



I never thought any thing about safety bars and just expect them to be there.  Until...... I skied in CO and found many ski areas without them. In fact, none at Loveland.  Kind of funny that this chair did not have safety bars since VT seems strict about it.


----------



## drjeff (Jun 9, 2016)

dlague said:


> I never thought any thing about safety bars and just expect them to be there.  Until...... I skied in CO and found many ski areas without them. In fact, none at Loveland.  Kind of funny that this chair did not have safety bars since VT seems strict about it.



In reality,  Ski Baba as a chair was almost more like a t-bar in that even when there wasn't any snow on the ground under the lift you were at moost maybe 5 feet off the ground, and if there was snow under the lift, one often at times couldn't have their poles hanging down without them dragging against the snow for the entire maybe 250 yard ride up.

When my youngest, who before he got the racing bug when he was 8, was thinking he was into the park scene from about age 6 to 8, he'd often lap that lift with his instruction group as they were learning new skills on small features, and my wife and I never once had any concerns about him getting hurt if he would of fallen off that lift!  It was just that low to the ground and slow, so that even a couple of 6 or 7 year old boys sharing a chair couldn't do much harm to themselves!

I will miss the once or twice a year that I'd ride it for nostalgia sake though.  I can see the benefits of a magic carpet, but it's just not as fun!


----------



## yeggous (Jul 14, 2016)

No discussion of their latest results?

http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release...ourthquarter-and-fullyear-2016-20160714-00235


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## doublediamond (Jul 14, 2016)

Honestly only a 3.3M loss sounds pretty damn good for this past winter.


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## BenedictGomez (Jul 15, 2016)

doublediamond said:


> Honestly only *a 3.3M loss sounds pretty damn good for this past winter*.



They lost $1.9M the year before that, and lost $1.5M the year before that year.


----------



## catskillman (Jul 15, 2016)

there was a $167,000 (I may be off a few thousand on that  figure - memory is going...) for a Hunter Mountain Season Pass Litigation Issue on the P&L.  

Any idea what that was related to?


----------



## mbedle (Jul 16, 2016)

I must be in the dark on this, but I had no idea that Peaks didn't own the VT, NY, PA and OH resorts.


----------



## sull1102 (Jul 16, 2016)

mbedle said:


> I must be in the dark on this, but I had no idea that Peaks didn't own the VT, NY, PA and OH resorts.



Peaks owns all their mountains except for Big Boulder/Jack Frost down in PA I'm pretty sure.


----------



## mbedle (Jul 16, 2016)

It appears that they only own the resorts in NH. Unless I am reading this wrong, the others appear to be owned by EPR Properties (similar to CNL REIT). For Hunter, it looks like they purchased the resort and mortgaged it immediately to Peaks. It appears that in some cases, they do that and ultimately convert it over to a long-term lease.

Correction - they did purchase Hunter but was financed by EPR properties. So maybe they do own the other ones. but have mortgages with EPR.


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## steamboat1 (Jul 16, 2016)

http://eprkc.com/portfolio-overview/metropolitan-ski-parks-list


----------



## steamboat1 (Jul 18, 2016)

*Peak Resorts Annual Report Reveals Dire Financial Situation*
http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=457


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## deadheadskier (Jul 18, 2016)

If they go down, this might be just the opportunity for Vail Resorts to enter the Northeast Market.  Surprised it wasn't Vail that picked up Hunter. That would sell a lot of Epic passes I'd guess.


----------



## mbedle (Jul 18, 2016)

I wonder if these numbers take into account the 13 million they lent to the EB-5 project. I believe that once the escrow account is opened, they will be paid back the 13 million. That should put them in a significantly better position for next year.


----------



## steamboat1 (Jul 18, 2016)

mbedle said:


> I wonder if these numbers take into account the 13 million they lent to the EB-5 project. I believe that once the escrow account is opened, they will be paid back the 13 million. That should put them in a significantly better position for next year.


This statement in the article would pretty much offset that & then some. 

"$15.5 million of the Hunter Mountain debt is not included in the long term debt figure." 

Don't forget the majority of their debt is balloon loans at high interest. The debt will have to be paid sometime in the future. For now they're only paying interest on that debt & are still having a hard time.


----------



## mbedle (Jul 18, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> This statement in the article would pretty much offset that & then some.
> 
> "$15.5 million of the Hunter Mountain debt is not included in the long term debt figure."
> 
> Don't forget the majority of their debt is balloon loans at high interest. The debt will have to be paid sometime in the future. For now they're only paying interest on that debt & are still having a hard time.



True - but in the short term, they will be sitting better with capital available for next season.


----------



## machski (Jul 18, 2016)

Unfortunately Peaks now finds themselves in a very similar situation to that which ASC was in.  They added another resort with an interest only loan not even counted in their long term debt at the start of an abysmal season.  I have not nor do I have a good picture of this company moving forward.  Member too, they are Midwest and eastern only, so no western weather bailout like most other large ski resort companies.  This winter will be a good litmus test.  Of they dial back snowmaking operations across their resorts we'll know for sure how dire their fiscal picture is.


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## snoseek (Jul 18, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> If they go down, this might be just the opportunity for Vail Resorts to enter the Northeast Market.  Surprised it wasn't Vail that picked up Hunter. That would sell a lot of Epic passes I'd guess.


Ive been thinking the same thing all along. I do know they're pretty committed finacially to park city right now though so who knows. Im not really sure how i feel about this. They tend to run things real tight unless that resort is bringing lots of money. Sure do wish wildcat had stayed privately owned.

Sent from my LG-H345 using Tapatalk


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## deadheadskier (Jul 18, 2016)

From what I've heard the Franchi family didn't have many resources in the bank to keep it going. Would be nice to see someone who has other business interests and not a great need to turn a major profit buy the place and finish off the investment in snowmaking it still could use.  Peaks investment has been great, but there's still a lot of trails that need new equipment to bring it to the advertised 90%.   Upper Wildcat and Gondiline guaranteed even during a bad year would be great.


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## steamboat1 (Jul 18, 2016)

For the fiscal year, Peak Resorts' revenue declined by 8.7%, despite its Hunter Mountain acquisition, *which would have represented a 26% increase in a normal season.  
*
This says volumes. How bad would've it been without the Hunter Mountain acquisition? More than a quarter of Peaks revenue was expected to come from one area. Guess their other areas don't generate to much.


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## BenedictGomez (Jul 19, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> "$15.5 million of the Hunter Mountain debt is not included in the long term debt figure."



I haven't poured over their earnings release, (and I dont intend to at 1am) but I dont understand this sentence as written.  Are they just trying to say in odd wording that this debt is in current liabilities?


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## yeggous (Jul 19, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> For the fiscal year, Peak Resorts' revenue declined by 8.7%, despite its Hunter Mountain acquisition, *which would have represented a 26% increase in a normal season.
> *
> This says volumes. How bad would've it been without the Hunter Mountain acquisition? More than a quarter of Peaks revenue was expected to come from one area. Guess their other areas don't generate to much.



It's all relative. From my perspective as a real New Englander, it is overwhelming to visit the slopeside circuses of southern Vermont. It's not hard to imagine that Hunter and Mount Snow dominate their revenue. When people pay $100 to stand in line it can be very profitable. Their other areas are in either in more remote locations, or more competitive markets.


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## drjeff (Jul 19, 2016)

yeggous said:


> It's all relative. From my perspective as a real New Englander, it is overwhelming to visit the slopeside circuses of southern Vermont. It's not hard to imagine that Hunter and Mount Snow dominate their revenue. When people pay $100 to stand in line it can be very profitable. Their other areas are in either in more remote locations, or more competitive markets.



Before Hunter was added to their portfolio of resorts, Mount Snow alone on average accounted for over 40% of Peaks annual revenue.  With the bulk of their holdings being small, Midwest properties, often with only essentially 3 month operating seasons, while they may not make Peak a ton of gross revenue on the balance sheets foe each of those resorts, in a "normal" year they do add up cumulatively when you combine them all together.

Take a "normal" ski season, and it's quite easy to see why adding Hunter to their portfolio will be a very good move for their annual revenues


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## doublediamond (Jul 25, 2016)

Peaks is nothing like how ASC was.  ASC over expanded their ski areas and assumed a lot of Mt Snow and Killington debt.  ASC's business model was selling real estate and the market tanked.

Peaks is nearly entirely focused on operations.  The only reason we're having this conversation is the record bad winter, they gambled on the West Lake project, and the Hunter aquisition.  

With respect to this winter, it was an utter disaster.  If anyone says otherwise they're nuts.  Visits were down nearly 30 percent.  A loss of only $3M and change despite this winter, bodes well for their long term profitability.

With respect to West Lake, it needed to get done.  This is the last winter of their Haystack water rights.  No West Lake? No Carinthia Park and all that revenue.  

With respect to Hunter, it was a smart move that'll be a cash cow for them.  It's a fully operational ski area with everything up to snuff.  This isn't like Mt Snow with the lifts and snowmaking needs.  This isn't like wildcat needing snowmaking.  They have a huge snowmaking system that allows them to routinely open early and have 2 high speed lifts, one brand new, and the other heavily refurbished.  Maybe one or two of their fixed grips will need replacement and maybe spruce up the lodge.  But no major investments needed.  This was a great move for their bottom line.


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## ski&soccermom (Jul 27, 2016)

http://www.dvalnews.com/view/full_s...s-year?instance=secondary_stories_left_column


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## ss20 (Jul 28, 2016)

ski&soccermom said:


> http://www.dvalnews.com/view/full_s...s-year?instance=secondary_stories_left_column



Guess they're putting what was pretty much certain in writing? ;-)

Bittersweet.  Bitter last winter...for sure...needed that extra water.  But most years?  Mt. Snow has never been aggressive in snowmaking (til last season, when they were one of the most aggressive, making snow multiple weekends in March).  Typically much of their snow is made from mid-November to late-January, with spot snowmaking going on till Presidents Week at the very latest.  In the awesome 2014-2015 season the guns were shut down at the beginning of February.

So my question...where is the ROI?  It's been stated that the plan to add coverage from the current 80% will be slow and not drastic.  They'll never be at 95%+ coverage like their competitors, Stratton and Okemo.  

I doubt the season will get any longer.  Thanksgiving to second weekend of April is all they shoot for.  Opening Day has great coverage...Closing Day has great coverage...anything less and they won't operate.  Very conservative with that aspect.

So more water/pumping capacity=more trails before Christmas and quicker resurfacing.  Unfortunately you can't put a number on either of those figures in a brochure.  As long as that's the case I don't see the masses flocking to Mount Snow.


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## deadheadskier (Jul 28, 2016)

ss20 said:


> I don't see the masses flocking to Mount Snow.



This does not compute.  Don't they already?  The pictures I've seen of the place on the weekends certainly meets my definition of "masses" and are enough to keep me away.


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## yeggous (Jul 28, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> This does not compute.  Don't they already?  The pictures I've seen of the place on the weekends certainly meets my definition of "masses" and are enough to keep me away.



+1. The place is an intolerable circus. I'd phrase it as the hordes will always haunt Mt Snow, regardless of the effort they put into snowmaking. Many people driving north up I-91 stop there because it is the first place over the magical Vermont border.


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## machski (Jul 28, 2016)

I thought they intended to add snowmaking to the Sunbrook side after West Lake is complete?  That would help a bit in weak snow years.  I think the goal of more water is to make as much snow as possible at the most optimum weather times.  If you can make most of what you need at the most efficient temps, your costs drop.  So sure, can't really sell that.  But if the idea is to reduce costs, you don't really need to sell that as the revenue gain comes from the other side of the ledger.


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## MEtoVTSkier (Jul 28, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> This does not compute.  Don't they already?  The pictures I've seen of the place on the weekends certainly meets my definition of "masses" and are enough to keep me away.



Exactly... They obviously are doing something right.


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## yeggous (Jul 28, 2016)

MEtoVTSkier said:


> Exactly... They obviously are doing something right.



Does being is the right location count as "doing something"?


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## Newpylong (Jul 28, 2016)

yeggous said:


> Does being is the right location count as "doing something"?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app



Only one part of the equation.


----------



## drjeff (Jul 28, 2016)

machski said:


> I thought they intended to add snowmaking to the Sunbrook side after West Lake is complete?  That would help a bit in weak snow years.  I think the goal of more water is to make as much snow as possible at the most optimum weather times.  If you can make most of what you need at the most efficient temps, your costs drop.  So sure, can't really sell that.  But if the idea is to reduce costs, you don't really need to sell that as the revenue gain comes from the other side of the ledger.



Yup.

The plan is to get West Lake complete, then, once permitting, which is apparently contingent to some extent in the eyes of the USFS where roughly 2/3rds of Mount Snow's trails are located is based on having the water capacity to put a million gallons of water per acre of terrain covered over the course of the season, expand their coverage not just in Sunbrook, but over the rest of the non snowmaking terrain on the mountain over a few seasons.  So it hasn't been part of the plan from Day 1 to have the West Lake project and concurrent expansion to 100% snowmaking occur in the same season.  Water capacity 1st, then the roll out of new snowmaking terrain over the course of a few seasons.

Additionally, the plan for Sunbrook is one the snowmaking is increased to 100% back there is to upgrade the Sunbrrok Quad to a highspeed lift and additionally construct some yurt like structure near the base of the Sunbrook and Bear Trap lifts for food and beverage sales and likely some bathroom facilities as well to hopefully encourage people to spend more time back there rather than just often using it as a pass through area on their way to other parts of the mountain


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## MEtoVTSkier (Jul 28, 2016)

yeggous said:


> Does being is the right location count as "doing something"?



It definitely helps.


----------



## FBGM (Aug 19, 2016)

Mount Blow looks to be doing it wrong still. More then halfway through summer and barley a start to their pump house project and more water now project. Also, little birdie on the interwebz said their permits may still be in the works for parts of that cluster project. Watch out ASC, peak is cumin for yas


----------



## Newpylong (Aug 19, 2016)




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## Jully (Aug 19, 2016)

FBGM said:


> Mount Blow looks to be doing it wrong still. More then halfway through summer and barley a start to their pump house project and more water now project. Also, little birdie on the interwebz said their permits may still be in the works for parts of that cluster project. Watch out ASC, peak is cumin for yas



What?


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## drjeff (Aug 23, 2016)

http://ir.peakresorts.com/file/Index?KeyFile=35589792

Raising another 20 million in working capital via new stock sale per approval of the shareholders at their annual meeting in October


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## deadheadskier (Aug 23, 2016)

Do they think they will have buyers? None of their recent financials would inspire me to invest. I suppose there will be some folks hoping they're buying low


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## BenedictGomez (Aug 23, 2016)

Wonder if they really need the money for capital projects, or if they're going to pull the trigger on a small resort (or both).


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## Jully (Aug 23, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Wonder if they really need the money for capital projects, or if they're going to pull the trigger on a small resort (or both).



Hopefully it is that and not just money for operating and start up costs for the upcoming season!


----------



## SIKSKIER (Aug 23, 2016)

http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=471


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## SIKSKIER (Aug 23, 2016)

http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=471
The comman stockholders get screwded in this deal.


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## steamboat1 (Aug 23, 2016)

Jully said:


> Hopefully it is that and not just money for operating and start up costs for the upcoming season!


I'd go with operating & start up costs seeing they had so little free cash available at the end of their fiscal year in April. Didn't Goldberg say Jay needs $7-$8 to carry them over the summer? That's one resort, Peak has many more.

_"Peak Resorts exited the 2016 fiscal year on April 30 with only $5.396 million in free cash."_


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## steamboat1 (Aug 23, 2016)

SIKSKIER said:


> http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=471
> The comman stockholders get screwded in this deal.


Not if they vote it down.


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## Jully (Aug 23, 2016)

More screwed than if the company goes under though? I get the feeling this is going to sail through the stockholders given the current situation.


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## mbedle (Aug 23, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> I'd go with operating & start up costs seeing they had so little free cash available at the end of their fiscal year in April. Didn't Goldberg say Jay needs $7-$8 to carry them over the summer? That's one resort, Peak has many more.
> 
> _"Peak Resorts exited the 2016 fiscal year on April 30 with only $5.396 million in free cash."_



I think I read they needed 12 million to get through the offseason and startup.


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## Jully (Aug 23, 2016)

mbedle said:


> I think I read they needed 12 million to get through the offseason and startup.



I wonder what the remaining $8 million is for then (or if they even have a specific use for it in mind). Upon buying Hunter last year, they had spoken about trying to acquire another resort. I'd be surprised if they went that route given everything that's happened, but it's not out of the realm of comprehension.


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## BenedictGomez (Aug 23, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> Not if they vote it down.



Which as you know, is not going to happen.


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## steamboat1 (Aug 23, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> Not if they vote it down.





BenedictGomez said:


> Which as you know, is not going to happen.


...


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## yeggous (Aug 23, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> Do they think they will have buyers? None of their recent financials would inspire me to invest. I suppose there will be some folks hoping they're buying low



The press release says they already have a buyer lined up. It is preferred stock. Somebody bought a seat on the Board.


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## 180 (Aug 24, 2016)

[FONT=&quot]http://www.newenglandskiindustry.com/viewstory.php?storyid=471

[/FONT]


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## sull1102 (Aug 24, 2016)

Is there ANY chance at all this works out? Barring a record breaking season, which is what we all want, how does Peak pay out $1.6-mil per year(is this ongoing or just 5 years), restart dividends at some point, build out Mount Snow, AND continue their desired expansions/acquisitions. This seems like a horrible deal, not quite a killer, but there's literally no room for error it looks like. Also, how long does that $20-mil really last before they need another infusion?


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## Jully (Aug 24, 2016)

sull1102 said:


> Is there ANY chance at all this works out? Barring a record breaking season, which is what we all want, how does Peak pay out $1.6-mil per year(is this ongoing or just 5 years), restart dividends at some point, build out Mount Snow, AND continue their desired expansions/acquisitions. This seems like a horrible deal, not quite a killer, but there's literally no room for error it looks like. Also, how long does that $20-mil really last before they need another infusion?



Well in previous years Peaks did have a decent amount of free cash at the end of the seasons and Hunter should provide a substantial increase in revenue. I do believe they are profitable and even a return to normal should allow this strategy to work.

Definitely no room for error though. Even a below average season might be the end / require some sell offs or other substantial actions to get them through the off season.


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## FBGM (Aug 24, 2016)

Next ASC right here. Spending the money's that are not there. EB5 funny moneys and now wall street help me money. If anyone wants to buy some crappy cheap ski areas you're time will come. Give them another year or two.


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## ss20 (Aug 24, 2016)

Some serious red flags in the company's financials.  I don't know how some people are still denying that.  My guess is this is stay-afloat money and pray the next few years are good enough to where they can build up real estate at Mount Snow and get back on track financially.  

I highly doubt this is for an acquisition.  That would be financial suicide...if buying Hunter coupled with this terrible season wasn't already.


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## doublediamond (Aug 24, 2016)

The Peaks financials are a million times better than ASC's.  

From my quick glance, this is an issuance of preferred stock which will be converted to common stock if the price goes up or if transferred or automatically after 12 years.  ASC's preferred stock deal was a reorganization of debt.  ASC's was a death pill trying to hold them over.  This isn't.

ASC's debt was from taking on other areas' debt and expansion/real estate debt.  Peak's debt is entirely from purchase of ski areas.  Only $2M of the $73.5M Attitash/Mt Snow deal was assumption of ASC debt.  ASC on the other hand assumed $58.5M of debt with its $104.6M merger with SKI Ltd.

These aren't even apples and oranges.  These are apples and koalas.  

Peak's has no significant financial needs on the horizon.  

* Wildcat has a brand new snowmaking system and no pressing lift needs.  
* Attitash is fine at least for now.  
* Crotched is chugging along with its HSQ and the most powerful snowmaking system per acre in New England.  
* Hunter is an inevitable goldmine:  great lifts, great powerful snowmaking, and market base already there.  
* Their midwest operations are profitable.

The only thing is ... Mt Snow water.  The Sun Brook snowmaking *can* wait.  But Peaks had to start construction on their West Lake project because they will soon run out of Haystack water.  It just sucks that they haven't gotten their EB-5 funds released and had the worst winter ***EVER*** so their cash reserves got a little low.  Next winter is forecasted to be average for both temp and precip.  They'll be fine.  $1.6M of annual dividends is less than what Peaks had been issuing before this disastrous winter.


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## doublediamond (Aug 25, 2016)

yeggous said:


> The press release says they already have a buyer lined up. It is preferred stock. Somebody bought a seat on the Board.



No. They have a right to *nominate* someone to the board subject to shareholder approval.  They will hold a 30% stake but barely any more voting power than their current 8.7% as the preferred stock and common stock vote on a 1:1 by share basis, not by share value (these preferred shares are 20k shares at $1000).


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## catskillman (Aug 30, 2016)

Well they saved money by not putting up a tent for the Celtic and German festivals - let everyone stand out in the blazing sun.  There were 2 small tents, that fit maybe 70 folks on rows of uncomfortable chairs, with a dusty dirt path between them and the band.  Unbelievable.And then the wondered why noone paid the $15 to go the following week.  Word is it is just their way of discontinuing these festivals....Anyone else notice the moat that was consturcted under the 6 pack?  That was a major job........


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## 180 (Aug 31, 2016)

that moat is going to catch a lot of folks


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## doublediamond (Aug 31, 2016)

What is this moat you guys speak of? Any pics?


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## yeggous (Sep 1, 2016)

doublediamond said:


> What is this moat you guys speak of? Any pics?



Yes, pics or it didn't happen


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## drjeff (Sep 1, 2016)

I've witnessed many times over the years that what gets done to a trail in the off-season often ends up looking nothing like what that same trail looks like come the beginning of the season, even sometimes if they rough seed the area with some grass to help with potential erosion issues.....


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## catskillman (Sep 6, 2016)

The Moat is there!!!  It is built with concrete sections that look like a brick wall.  It is under the 6 pack, apparently for drainage I hear.  You can't miss it.  It has to be 30 ft long and 10 wide at least (from memory)


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## steamboat1 (Sep 9, 2016)

http://vtdigger.org/2016/09/09/mount-snow-blames-project-delay-federal-eb-5-scrutiny/


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## FBGM (Sep 9, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> http://vtdigger.org/2016/09/09/mount-snow-blames-project-delay-federal-eb-5-scrutiny/



Lols ship is sinking.


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## deadheadskier (Sep 9, 2016)

Do you want it to?

I don't disagree with you. Things don't look good. I just hope they turn things around as they've done such a good job running Wildcat.  It could still use a few million more in snowmaking upgrades, but what they've done is the best it's ever been and they deliver the longest ski season in the state there.  So for my needs, I'm really happy with Peaks. I'd be nervous about new ownership at the Cat


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## Los (Sep 9, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> Do you want it to?
> 
> I don't disagree with you. Things don't look good. I just hope they turn things around as they've done such a good job running Wildcat.  It could still use a few million more in snowmaking upgrades, but what they've done is the best it's ever been and they deliver the longest ski season in the state there.  So for my needs, I'm really happy with Peaks. I'd be nervous about new ownership at the Cat



Having skied Wildcat a handful of times in the past two years and absolutely loving it, I agree. What they having going on now is phenomenal. A change of the guard would make me nervous too.


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## steamboat1 (Sep 9, 2016)

The job creation is just not there. A new base lodge creates next to zero new jobs since it's just replacing an existing base lodge. A new water supply creates next to zero new jobs since the mountain already has nearly full snowmaking coverage. There is no way a few new condo's will create over a thousand new jobs required by the $52M EB -5 investment. I'm not saying they're stealing money, they're just not meeting the requirements of the program.

And I don't want to hear the BS about about increased skier visits bringing more jobs to the area. Mount Snow operates at near capacity now.


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## Jully (Sep 10, 2016)

Isn't there some way to declare that it's job preservation? I thought that was part of an eb5 venture for Saddleback awhile back.


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## steamboat1 (Sep 10, 2016)

Jully said:


> Isn't there some way to declare that it's job preservation? I thought that was part of an eb5 venture for Saddleback awhile back.


I believe you're referring to Sugarbush which was declared a "troubled business" & only had to show job preservation. I don't think Mount Snow qualifies as a "troubled business".


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## JimG. (Sep 10, 2016)

I think it's funny that they "blaming" federal oversight for the delays. 

If VT had done basic due diligence to begin with maybe the Jay fraud never would have happened. Businesses that "blame" oversight for delays make me nervous. Makes me think they are hiding something too.

So now the VT mess will screw up skiing in other places like NY and NH. The Slutsky family must be giddy over their good timing selling Hunter. Hope we get to ski there in the future.


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## sull1102 (Sep 10, 2016)

Really hoping they can pull through this, they certainly have a plan based off everything they have done this summer. Snow is not at capacity yet, skier visits could increase a good bit, bad example, but this winter there were only a couple of Saturdays or Sundays that the Grand Summit had a line at all. A new lodge at Carinthia would employee more people than the current building just because it will be noticeably larger. I'm talking a couple of jobs here, not 100's or even 25, but new jobs will be created.


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## steamboat1 (Sep 10, 2016)

We're talking 1,040 jobs. The amount of new jobs that would need to be created from $52M of EB-5 investment.


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## drjeff (Sep 11, 2016)

Once again everyone the jobs created by EB-5 investment don't all have to be at Mount Snow. The jobs created, both full and part time can be within the general area. 

So Mount Snow/Peak Resorts in no way will, nor were they ever supposed to per EB-5 regulations, be adding over 1000 full time employees to their payrolls.  We're talking cumulative job creation here, and that also includes any jobs created by the Hermitage Club in this number since they are within the geographic area as well.

Personally do I think that full number of jobs created will be reached, even within say a 50 mile radius? Not likely.

Having been a property owner in that area for almost 10yrs now and seeing how the community runs and has gone through significant ebbs and flows economically, do I feel that it will have an undoubtedly positive effect on the general economy of Southern VT from builders to service industry jobs to direct ski industry jobs? Yes

Now we can get back to Steamboat expressing for the umpteenth time that this entire concept makes no sense to him.... :Rolleyes:


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## steamboat1 (Sep 11, 2016)

drjeff said:


> Personally do I think that full number of jobs created will be reached, even within say a 50 mile radius? Not likely.


Glad we agree.


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## BenedictGomez (Sep 11, 2016)

drjeff said:


> Once again everyone the jobs created by EB-5 investment don't all have to be at Mount Snow. The jobs created, both full and part time can be within the general area.



Most of them (we'll define this as >=50%+1) are "created" via creative and fraudulent accounting, the kind of which if an entity not backed by the government pulled off with revenue, lowered expenses, tax rate, etc.. or any other manipulated figure or financial statement metric, would see people fired or even hauled off to jail depending on the scale.  Do it under the umbrella and/or with government blessing, and it's A-okay.  Everyone involved knows this is going on.   _E-V-E-R-Y-O-N-E._


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## JimG. (Sep 11, 2016)

drjeff said:


> Now we can get back to Steamboat expressing for the umpteenth time that this entire concept makes no sense to him.... :Rolleyes:



Frankly it makes no sense to me either. EB5 is a scheme to get foreigners to invest large sums of money in return for fast track citizenship. 

The jobs created are no more than window dressing for publicity and VT isn't doing any better of a job monitoring that than they did monitoring the mess at Jay.


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## cdskier (Sep 11, 2016)

JimG. said:


> Frankly it makes no sense to me either. EB5 is a scheme to get foreigners to invest large sums of money in return for fast track citizenship.
> 
> The jobs created are no more than window dressing for publicity and VT isn't doing any better of a job monitoring that than they did monitoring the mess at Jay.



Agreed...I understand that indirect job creation counts, but I still see no way anywhere near 1000 jobs would be created by this project somehow. I can see a handful of jobs being created...but even 100 would be a stretch from my perspective. This isn't anything against Mt Snow and what they are trying to do. I just don't see how EB-5 is justified for this (and many other projects). EB-5 needs to be much stricter with this job creation metric.


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## JimG. (Sep 11, 2016)

cdskier said:


> This isn't anything against Mt Snow and what they are trying to do. I just don't see how EB-5 is justified for this (and many other projects). EB-5 needs to be much stricter with this job creation metric.



I don't hold anything against Mt. Snow either, or Jay for that matter. Jay just had the bad luck to get associated with a thief.

I think the EB5 program should just be honest and forget about dubious metrics like "job creation" and say "we want to get foreign investment money and we're giving fast track citizenship as a reward". Once the money is given these people should get their citizenship.
Because these investors who gave large sums of money are the real losers here and that sucks.


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## steamboat1 (Sep 11, 2016)

JimG. said:


> I don't hold anything against Mt. Snow either, or Jay for that matter. Jay just had the bad luck to get associated with a thief.
> 
> I think the EB5 program should just be honest and forget about dubious metrics like "job creation" and say "we want to get foreign investment money and we're giving fast track citizenship as a reward". Once the money is given these people should get their citizenship.
> Because these investors who gave large sums of money are the real losers here and that sucks.


Kind of like the Clinton Foundation. You grease my hand I'll grease yours.


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## JimG. (Sep 11, 2016)

steamboat1 said:


> You grease my hand I'll grease yours.



It's the honest solution. 

Do you think the foreign investors were in on the scam? Do you think they were stupid enough to give the money knowing it would be stolen? The money is gone in the defense of a crook. Those people got screwed so how much does it really cost to at least make them citizens.

Or are you offended by the program itself and wish to see it fail?

I think the logical answers there are no and no.


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## cdskier (Sep 12, 2016)

JimG. said:


> It's the honest solution.
> 
> Do you think the foreign investors were in on the scam? Do you think they were stupid enough to give the money knowing it would be stolen? The money is gone in the defense of a crook. Those people got screwed so how much does it really cost to at least make them citizens.
> 
> ...



I agree people were screwed and duped and that is unfortunate for sure. I do feel bad for those people and hope they somehow either get some money back or get a green card. I have not ever been in favor of this program though. From when I first learned about EB-5 I said it sounded like simply a way for people to buy their way into the US. I do not like that whole concept. I'm not saying I want to see it "fail", but I would not be at all upset if the program was simply eliminated going forward.


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## Smellytele (Sep 12, 2016)

cdskier said:


> I agree people were screwed and duped and that is unfortunate for sure. I do feel bad for those people and hope they somehow either get some money back or get a green card. I have not ever been in favor of this program though. From when I first learned about EB-5 I said it sounded like simply a way for people to buy their way into the US. I do not like that whole concept. I'm not saying I want to see it "fail", but I would not be at all upset if the program was simply eliminated going forward.


When you see a program backed by the US government you may think hey this might be legit. Obviously it was not.  The whole program is shady from the developers getting "free money" to the investor getting a 500k green card. In vermont you have the added agency where employees use it as a stepping stone to get other jobs with companies they were helping. When the investors call the process out it is like the people who call the police and say "my apartment was broken into and they stole my weed".


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## BenedictGomez (Sep 12, 2016)

JimG. said:


> *I think the EB5 program should just be honest and forget about dubious metrics like "job creation" and say "we want to get foreign investment money* and we're giving fast track citizenship as a reward". *Once the money is given these people should get their citizenship.*



The politicians cant do that "politically", because then it's straight-up, "pay for US citizenship", which is rich foreigners jumping the line in front of the poor and middle class.  

Which, of course, is precisely what EB-5 really is. 

So the politicians needed to invent a BS reason for why it's okay, to dupe naive Americans into believing EB-5 is a godsend for rural areas (well, until it "expanded" to Chicago & New York City of course = ROFL), and that's done with the phony _"jobs created"_ nonsense which is greatly expanded fraudulently to hit whatever target is necessary via the _"indirect jobs" _metric.  

Again, creative accounting that a business cant legally get away with, but if the US Government does this, it's A-okay, because they're the ones with the guns, bayonets, and keys to the jail.


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## JimG. (Sep 12, 2016)

Smellytele said:


> When you see a program backed by the US government you may think hey this might be legit. Obviously it was not.  The whole program is shady from the developers getting "free money" to the investor getting a 500k green card. In vermont you have the added agency where employees use it as a stepping stone to get other jobs with companies they were helping. When the investors call the process out it is like the people who call the police and say "my apartment was broken into and they stole my weed".



Interesting; the impression I am getting is that many folks view this as illegal immigration for rich people. At the least line jumping in front of less wealthy applicants. 

I can certainly understand why people might feel that way.


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## deadheadskier (Sep 12, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> The politicians cant do that "politically", because then it's straight-up, "pay for US citizenship", which is rich foreigners jumping the line in front of the poor and middle class.
> 
> .



They could. Other countries do.  Right now PQ has their investment Visa application open.  You have to give $800K to the Province as a zero interest guaranteed loan for five years and show a net worth of $1.6M  that has been legally obtained.  That gets you permanent resident status and you get your money back in five years.  They are accepting 1900 investors, the majority coming from China.  I remember being curious about what it would take to live up there after loving QC during a vacation 6 years ago. Jim's recent vacation home thoughts on Quebec had me curious on the details.

http://www.immigration.ca/en/quebec-immigrant-investor-program.html

I know New Zealand had a similar program when I was looking to work abroad about 12 years ago.


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## JimG. (Sep 12, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> They could. Other countries do.  Right now PQ has their investment Visa application open.  You have to give $800K to the Province as a zero interest guaranteed loan for five years and show a net worth of $1.6M  that has been legally obtained.  That gets you permanent resident status and you get your money back in five years.  They are accepting 1900 investors, the majority coming from China.  I remember being curious about what it would take to live up there after loving QC during a vacation 6 years ago. Jim's recent vacation home thoughts on Quebec had me curious on the details.
> 
> http://www.immigration.ca/en/quebec-immigrant-investor-program.html
> 
> I know New Zealand had a similar program when I was looking to work abroad about 12 years ago.



Amazing! The Canadian equivalent of EB5 but without the window dressing of job creation. I would feel more comfortable with a government backed guarantee to get my money back after 5 years too.

But I'm not handing $800,000 to anyone for free for 5 years even with the payback guarantee. 

The upshot of all this is that VT is looking like an option again.


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## steamboat1 (Sep 15, 2016)

http://vtdigger.org/2016/09/14/leahy-eyes-provision-give-defrauded-eb-5-investors-break/


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## BenedictGomez (Sep 15, 2016)

> Sens. *Patrick Leahy, D-Vt*., and Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, are pressing for  financial reporting requirements that would better protect investors.  The two senators* say fraud is “rampant” in the program*



Wait, what?    Leahy finally found Jesus? 

  What a freaking fraud.  He's *knee-deep* in this entire program more than any other politician in the land, and never uttered an unkind EB-5 word before this news broke.  

Politician being a politician.


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## thetrailboss (Sep 15, 2016)

I feel uneasy about just giving the investors amnesty. I don't know why, but something just seems wrong. Get their money back and let them go after Quiros in a civil case.


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## Harvey (Sep 15, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Wait, what?    Leahy finally found Jesus?
> 
> What a freaking fraud.  He's *knee-deep* in this entire program more than any other politician in the land, and never uttered an unkind EB-5 word before this news broke.
> 
> Politician being a politician.



I agree with BG. :-o  

Seems like a pretty thin veneer.


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## steamboat1 (Sep 15, 2016)

thetrailboss said:


> I feel uneasy about just giving the investors amnesty. I don't know why, but something just seems wrong. Get their money back and let them go after Quiros in a civil case.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


The proposal doesn't give investors amnesty. Only the opportunity to invest in other EB-5 projects to meet the job creation requirement. Who knows the whole program might expire at the end of this month.


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## BenedictGomez (Sep 16, 2016)

thetrailboss said:


> I feel uneasy about just giving the investors amnesty. I don't know why, but something just seems wrong. Get their money back and let them go after Quiros in a civil case.



Although I'm sympathetic to the investors, it would be terrible if they were made whole in every fashion.  That completely removes the moral hazard necessary for any investment, and only provides fuel for additional scams such as this.


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## yeggous (Sep 16, 2016)

BenedictGomez said:


> Although I'm sympathetic to the investors, it would be terrible if they were made whole in every fashion.  That completely removes the moral hazard necessary for any investment, and only provides fuel for additional scams such as this.



Usually I would agree, but fraud is a different story.


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## steamboat1 (Sep 16, 2016)

From the article:

_However, reforms proposed in EB-5 legislation introduced in the House Judiciary Committee earlier this week don’t go quite that far._
_Instead, the bill provides greater flexibility for defrauded investors to reinvest in amended or new projects, and, provided the investments still produce the required 10 jobs, allows them to obtain U.S. citizenship._
_In addition, the legislation would allow investors to use proceeds from any settlements stemming from fraud allegations to reinvest that money in a new or amended project, and, if that investment creates the required jobs, the investor would again be eligible for U.S. citizenship._
_For example, foreign investors in the biomedical center project could use money recouped for them by the receiver to reinvest in another qualified EB-5 project anywhere in the country. Goldberg is working to recover assets from monetary settlements with banks and those accused of fraud. In a recently announced settlement with Citibank, for example, Goldberg is seeking $13.3 million._
_Should the new investment produce 10 jobs, under the reforms proposed, the defrauded investor would become eligible for U.S. citizenship._


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## BenedictGomez (Sep 16, 2016)

yeggous said:


> Usually I would agree, but *fraud is a different story.*



Tell that to Enron investors.  

I realize it stinks and seems entirely unfair, but there needs to be strong incentive in place (i.e. losing my entire investment) to prevent future wrongs.  

If people look at EB-5 2.0 and say, _"well......this is kinda shady.....but...heck, the government will bail me out if it's fraud anyway"_, that's a HUGE problem, regardless of what investment or asset class you're referring to.  At very least put a cap on what they can recover, sort of like FDIC insurance.


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## deadheadskier (Sep 16, 2016)

I would think the bigger anger would be losing out on the path to citizenship more than the financial loss.


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## BenedictGomez (Sep 16, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> I would think the bigger anger would be losing out on the path to citizenship more than the financial loss.



For some, most definitely, but keep in mind that's being explored as possibly being "covered" as well.


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## drjeff (Dec 13, 2016)

Game on!

The 1st EB-5 applicant has been approved, and the 52 million in escrow is free to be released!

https://globenewswire.com/news-rele...-Announces-Release-of-EB-5-Project-Funds.html


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## ss20 (Dec 13, 2016)

Sweet.  I'm all for more water and more pumping but keep it on existing trails, please.  No need to expand snowmaking to current natural trails.  I'd be cool with snowmaking on Fool's Gold, Overbrook, Shootout OR Hop (more out of necessity for weekend crowd relief than personal want).  If they actually install a HSQ on Sunbrook they'd need snowmaking on the Dipper's.  Everything else: don't freak'n touch, please!  

Carinthia development looks really nice on the plans.  Snow needs more slopeside housing.


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## drjeff (Dec 13, 2016)

ss20 said:


> Sweet.  I'm all for more water and more pumping but keep it on existing trails, please.  No need to expand snowmaking to current natural trails.  I'd be cool with snowmaking on Fool's Gold, Overbrook, Shootout OR Hop (more out of necessity for weekend crowd relief than personal want).  If they actually install a HSQ on Sunbrook they'd need snowmaking on the Dipper's.  Everything else: don't freak'n touch, please!
> 
> Carinthia development looks really nice on the plans.  Snow needs more slopeside housing.


The plan, as I have heard it explained by multiple Peak/Mount Snow admins, is to over the next FEW SEASONS, (NOT FOR NEXT SEASON) expand the snowmaking coverage to 100%. But that doesn't mean that they're going to constantly be maintaining and grooming all the snowmaking trails.  The core snowmaking trails (think ones currently with snowmaking like Cascade, Canyon, Long John, etc) they currently and will still get a fresh coat of corduroy basically every night. Some trails that will get snowmaking, such as say Fool's Gold, Hop, One More Time, Big and Little Dipper, will see a groomer maybe once or twice a week. A trail Jaws or Uncles or Ledge will probably see then make snow on it, and then leave it alone unless there's say a thaw freeze cycle with no real chance of natural snow for a while after or no need for more snow to be made on it that season - think how they manage Ripcord or Yardsale now! They get the appeal and importance of having many options of non super buffed terrain, and look at the chance to expand to 100% snowmaking not as a threat to that appeal, but as a way to enhance it with just helping mother nature get the trail started for the season and then generally letting her run the show from there!

As for Sunbrook, part of the plan, once snowmaking back there is increased to 100%, is to upgrade to a high-speed lift, possibly even a bubble lift, and then as well add in some likely yurt like structure near the base of the Sunbrook and Beartrap lifts that would have some food and beverage service as well as restrooms, as a way to encourage people to take a bunch of runs back there rather than use it as a passthrough area to get from one side of the mountain to the other.

Personally, I'm thrilled with their master plans for on hill upgrades!

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## ss20 (Dec 13, 2016)

Correct...as you've explained to me multiple times on here.  I understand it's in phases to 100%.  And I realize Snow won't groom everything overnight.  But putting in pipes requires trimming, a night of bad wind can bury trees and cause them to fall.  There will always be the scratch of man-made underneath whatever natural falls on blow-it-and-forget-it trails.  

Like I said, I'm all for expanded snowmaking...on some trails.  Ledge, Drifter, Jaws, Challenger, Uncle's, and some other small things that were a blast to ski on Monday (maybe again Saturday?) I am whole-heartedly against snowmaking on.  Man-made fundamentally changes a trail...no matter how much natural you put on it.  My second run on Monday was Freefall, and it was already down to its exposed man made.  Same with Lodge later in the day.


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## Newpylong (Dec 15, 2016)

Upper Titanium, Dippers, Shooting Star, Hop, Shoot Out, Overbrook, One More Time, Olympic yes they are all wide and could use a man made base. It will be a travesty if they touch anything else. There is no need except for marketing to say 100%.


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## drjeff (Dec 15, 2016)

Newpylong said:


> Upper Titanium, Dippers, Shooting Star, Hop, Shoot Out, Overbrook, One More Time, Olympic yes they are all wide and could use a man made base. It will be a travesty if they touch anything else. There is no need except for marketing to say 100%.



.
As someone who skis there essentially every weekend their open, including the big holiday weekends and holiday weeks, the more acres they can have available to spread people out over, the better in my book.  And that was before all the Peak explorer passes were added into the mix.  And I will say that anecdotally this season, I've ridden the Bluebird with way more "bubble virgins" (the "wow" comments when you first pull the bubble down and/or having to tell that that the bubble goes up by itself at the top are give away's to the likely loss of their bubble virginity on that ride ;-) ) on a percentage basis than the last couple of seasons, so I'm expecting heavier than usual crowds, and thus why I strongly feel that more acres open predictably, even if it requires some tree removal in isolated areas to facilitate pipe installation in the coming years, with some limited snow work throughout the season, is going to be a good thing, and improve the overall experience for the majority of folks.  I like the simple notion that post West lake upgrade/snowmaking expansion, the reality is one could very well be looking at having trails that used to be open maybe 4 to 6 weeks in a normal season (heck some of them NEVER opened for more than a few days tops last season, if at all) be open for 3+ months.  That's more than just a marketing position, that's some tangible improvement in the modern ski industry

Heck, and when the natural snow is good, most of us are in the trees anyway, and that experience won't be changing!


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## deadheadskier (Dec 15, 2016)

Are the trails in question able to be groomed already with an abundance of natural snow?  That's kind of my delineation point of something that should or should not have snowmaking installed.  If the trail is either too narrow or has natural terrain features like ledges that prevent it from being groomed with natural snow, then it should be left a natural snow only trail even if it means only being open for short stretches in a given season.  New England has an over abundance of wide, characterless, groomed terrain as is. There really isn't a need to add more of this type of terrain to the inventory.


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## drjeff (Dec 15, 2016)

deadheadskier said:


> Are the trails in question able to be groomed already with an abundance of natural snow?  That's kind of my delineation point of something that should or should not have snowmaking installed.  If the trail is either too narrow or has natural terrain features like ledges that prevent it from being groomed with natural snow, then it should be left a natural snow only trail even if it means only being open for short stretches in a given season.  New England has an over abundance of wide, characterless, groomed terrain as is. There really isn't a need to add more of this type of terrain to the inventory.



Yup - every trail that would have snowmaking added to it has seen a groomer on atleast occasionally when the snow depths have allowed.

And I think if my memory serves correct, I recall some of the admins saying that in order to add snowmaking pipe to existing, non snowmaking trails (roughly 150 acres of current terrain) that cumulatively less than an acre of trees would need to be removed to facilitate running the pipes along the trail.  So it's not like they're planning on clear cutting and turning the existing trails without snowmaking into 20 lane wide mega trails!  Heck, with a sizeable percentage of the terrain that would see snowmaking added to it on US Forest Service land, the Forest Service itself wouldn't let that happen

Edit:

Just thought of one exception to my statement above - Second Thoughts, the traverse/bailout at the top of the headwall on Ripcord, has never seen a groomer before (it's only maybe 5 or 6 feet wide) and to my understanding ISN'T supposed to receive snowmaking in the upgrade


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## Pez (Dec 15, 2016)

I just hope whatever they do long term doesn't ruin the feel over on sunbrook.  That's the perfect place to get away from the crouds even on a really busy day.


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## ss20 (Dec 15, 2016)

Pez said:


> I just hope whatever they do long term doesn't ruin the feel over on sunbrook.  That's the perfect place to get away from the crouds even on a really busy day.



The coming HSQ will end those days.  While Sunbrook is great now as-is, I will happily take a HSQ and snowmaking on Big/Little Dipper, as I'm sure it'll take a decent amount of crowds away from the Main Face.


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## ScottySkis (Dec 20, 2016)

Does anyone know when this year the Peaks Holiday Black out pass starts on Christmas or day after. And does it last to New years day.?

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## deadheadskier (Dec 20, 2016)

12-27-1/1; 1/14-1/15; 2/18-2/20


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## drjeff (Jun 21, 2017)

Peak giving Hunter some expansion love! To be completed by the 18-19 season 

http://ir.peakresorts.com/file/Index?KeyFile=389184796

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## cdskier (Jun 21, 2017)

drjeff said:


> Peak giving Hunter some expansion love! To be completed by the 18-19 season
> 
> http://ir.peakresorts.com/file/Index?KeyFile=389184796



How do they determine that simply adding additional terrain will generate additional earnings? Saying this will generate $1.5-$2 million incremental earnings per year seems excessive (but that's an outsider perspective and I have no real facts to base this on). Adding more intermediate terrain to a resort that has a reputation for being crowded doesn't exactly seem like the type of thing that is going to magically pull in that many more skiers from somewhere.


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## BenedictGomez (Jun 21, 2017)

> Intends to apply for permits to add additional skiing terrain to Hunter Mountain



What are the odds of this happening.   New York State has plenty of Eco-extremists in government.  I imagine this is a coin-flip at best.


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## thetrailboss (Jun 21, 2017)

BenedictGomez said:


> What are the odds of this happening.   New York State has plenty of Eco-extremists in government.  I imagine this is a coin-flip at best.



Surprised that you didn't comment on the EB-5 reference.


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## millerm277 (Jun 22, 2017)

cdskier said:


> How do they determine that simply adding additional terrain will generate additional earnings? Saying this will generate $1.5-$2 million incremental earnings per year seems excessive (but that's an outsider perspective and I have no real facts to base this on). Adding more intermediate terrain to a resort that has a reputation for being crowded doesn't exactly seem like the type of thing that is going to magically pull in that many more skiers from somewhere.



Their major drawback for attracting people is very little good intermediate terrain. The lower mountain runs are fine, but too short to satisfy people and Belt Parkway is both a mess on a busy day and pretty challenging for an "lower intermediate" skier. This would be pretty significant if they can carve out more lengthy intermediate runs.

The other aspect is that Hunter to me is right at the tipping point for being suitable for multiple days. It's just a little too small to really love skiing multiple days in a row at, I want more terrain. And that means I mostly only go for day trips or I go up and ski Plattekill or something on the 2nd day. They might see a big bump in lodging revenue with an expansion.

I'm not familiar enough with what Hunter currently generates to say if those revenue numbers are excessive or not, but I think it's a pretty strong argument that they would produce a sizable % increase for the mountain.



BenedictGomez said:


> What are the odds of this happening.   New York State has plenty of Eco-extremists in government.  I imagine this is a coin-flip at best.



Pretty sure they own the land, I don't believe they're likely to get much pushback or that there's many levers to stop them. There's also active logging with visible logging roads on the other side of the valley from what I've seen, this isn't exactly pristine land.

--------------------------------

I'm curious about the details of how they're going to lay this out. 

I'd be very concerned with how much more more crowded the peak would be if they ran this to the summit and have no idea how you'd even place it up there. I'm imagining they're probably going to structure it as a mostly self-contained pod, with a lift run from Rusk Hollow Rd up to the White Cloud/Belt/Way Out intersection. That wouldn't put too much additional crowding pressure on the rest of the hill. 

It looks like it would give a ~850ft vert, and it'd be all slope with no significant runout. This could be a pretty solid expansion pod.

However, from my impression and the maps I've seen, that area is a pretty steep slope. I'm wondering how they're going to manage to get intermediate terrain out of it rather than expert.


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## drjeff (Jun 22, 2017)

cdskier said:


> How do they determine that simply adding additional terrain will generate additional earnings? Saying this will generate $1.5-$2 million incremental earnings per year seems excessive (but that's an outsider perspective and I have no real facts to base this on). Adding more intermediate terrain to a resort that has a reputation for being crowded doesn't exactly seem like the type of thing that is going to magically pull in that many more skiers from somewhere.



Give the marketing department the "tools" of a new high speed lift and a 25% expansion via new terrain headlines to work with and they'll easily be able to spin that into increased visits and revenue.

The Northeast ski community rarely these days gets a sizable terrain expansion and a truly new lift (not just an upgrade of an existing lift), so the curiosity factor will be high, and the marketing folks at Peak and Hunter will enjoy promoting it


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## benski (Jun 22, 2017)

There lack of intermediate terrain  is defiantly holding them back. Windham has many customers for them to take and leaves much to be desired in terms of variety and snowmaking quality. The crowding on intermediate trails at hunter is a huge liability hence the expression, "if you can ski hunter you can ski anywhere."


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## cdskier (Jun 22, 2017)

millerm277 said:


> Their major drawback for attracting people is very little good intermediate terrain. The lower mountain runs are fine, but too short to satisfy people and Belt Parkway is both a mess on a busy day and pretty challenging for an "lower intermediate" skier. This would be pretty significant if they can carve out more lengthy intermediate runs.



Based on what I've seen in the past when I went there, I never would have said that Hunter has a problem "attracting people". To me they are already quite busy. And in fact some people that I know don't go there because they believe they are "too crowded". I'm struggling to understand where the additional people would come from. Are people going to visit the other Catskill resorts less? Are people going to go to Hunter instead of southern VT with the addition of more intermediate terrain at Hunter?



> I'm not familiar enough with what Hunter currently generates to say if those revenue numbers are excessive or not, but I think it's a pretty strong argument that they would produce a sizable % increase for the mountain.



When Peaks purchased Hunter, they stated Hunter's EBITDA was around $6M in the press release (and based on this year's preliminary financial report that would mean Hunter is responsible for approximately 23% of Peak's overall EBITDA, which is believable I think given the size of Hunter compared to some of the other resorts in their portfolio). Now Peaks is saying the expansion would generate an additional $1.5-$2M in EBITDA. So simply expanding terrain is going to increase your earnings by 25%-33% at Hunter? I'm having a very hard time believing that. I do believe it will increase it a bit if they market it right to attract more intermediates and families...but I still think a 25-33% increase in earnings seems extremely optimistic. "If you build it, they will come" only applies if there is truly pent up demand for what you're building. If that demand is already being satisfied by other resorts (Windham and Belleyare for example both have a good selection of Intermediate terrain), it is going to take a lot for people to suddenly leave those places and go to Hunter.



drjeff said:


> Give the marketing department the "tools" of a new high speed lift and a 25% expansion via new terrain headlines to work with and they'll easily be able to spin that into increased visits and revenue.
> 
> The Northeast ski community rarely these days gets a sizable terrain expansion and a truly new lift (not just an upgrade of an existing lift), so the curiosity factor will be high, and the marketing folks at Peak and Hunter will enjoy promoting it



I have no doubt they'll see increased visits and revenue...my issue is just with how much of an increase they're projecting. I'm not buying it. I certainly could be wrong though.


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## deadheadskier (Jun 22, 2017)

drjeff said:


> Give the marketing department the "tools" of a new high speed lift and a 25% expansion via new terrain headlines to work with and they'll easily be able to spin that into increased visits and revenue.
> 
> The Northeast ski community rarely these days gets a sizable terrain expansion and a truly new lift (not just an upgrade of an existing lift), so the curiosity factor will be high, and the marketing folks at Peak and Hunter will enjoy promoting it



This all sounds great.  However, even though I am not very likely to ski Hunter, I still think they should have came out swinging with a bit more information on this announcement.

A new High Speed Quad - how much vertical will it service?
25% expansion in terrain acreage - I suppose I could do the math, but making a statement such as, "10 new trails totaling 70 acres" would carry more weight

I'm sure if they have this plan, they at least have to have some drawings.  Let's see em'!

Overall, this type of terrain sounds exactly like what Hunter could use.  One complaint I have heard from Hunter skiers about Peaks since they took over the mountain is they now groom the place to death, which the prior owners weren't so guilty of.   Hopefully by adding new intermediate terrain, they can leave more of their expert terrain untouched.


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## abc (Jun 22, 2017)

The biggest negative of Hunter is crowds, on lifts and trails. That's what deter many from going there. 

Adding terrain and a new lift will definitely help increase visitation. Good marketing notwithstanding.


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## drjeff (Jun 22, 2017)

deadheadskier said:


> This all sounds great.  However, even though I am not very likely to ski Hunter, I still think they should have came out swinging with a bit more information on this announcement.
> 
> A new High Speed Quad - how much vertical will it service?
> 25% expansion in terrain acreage - I suppose I could do the math, but making a statement such as, "10 new trails totaling 70 acres" would carry more weight
> ...



Given that it's expected to come online in the '18-'19 season, I'm guessing the major blitz, with much greater details, will start late Feb/March when the '18-'19 Peak Pass products roll out

Also, you have to remember as always, that the majority of people that a ski area markets to, don't have anywhere near as much interest in the details of what's going on, and have their interest captured with things like "coming next season, a new lift and NEW terrain!" Us AZ'ers just aren't the typical ski area customers!! ;-)


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## cdskier (Jun 22, 2017)

deadheadskier said:


> A new High Speed Quad - how much vertical will it service?
> 25% expansion in terrain acreage - I suppose I could do the math, but making a statement such as, "10 new trails totaling 70 acres" would carry more weight



To me a 25% expansion "sounds" more impressive than "10 new trails totaling 70 acres". Many people have no concept of what an acre on a mountain for skiing really is. Of course we could split the difference and Peaks could have used all of these descriptors in their announcement!  "A 25% expansion of terrain featuring 10 new trails on 70 additional acres!"

I do agree a diagram or proposed trail map would be nice though.


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## deadheadskier (Jun 22, 2017)

Exactly what I'm saying. Use both metrics. If you really want to ramp up the hype machine include trail mileage as well.

"New for 2018, A High Speed Quad serving 1100 vertical of terrain that will include 10 new trails adding 70 acres and 3+ miles of new skiable terrain.  This expansion will increase our skiable terrain by over 25%, making it the largest new development in Hunter's history!"

Not too difficult to throw a bunch of hyperbole into a press release like that one.

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## Funky_Catskills (Jun 22, 2017)

Local consensus is this is going to happen and has been in the works since before the purchase.
Will be on the face where Wayout and Huega are..  We ski those lines on a good year...  It's nice in there


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## deadheadskier (Jun 22, 2017)

The real question is whether or not Blue Boy gets a trail named after him.  He's kind of a Hunter legend now.


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## Funky_Catskills (Jun 22, 2017)

deadheadskier said:


> The real question is whether or not Blue Boy gets a trail named after him.  He's kind of a Hunter legend now.



I gotta tell you - most of us could give a sh*t about that guy..


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## Jully (Jun 22, 2017)

I suspect cdskier's thought about Southern VT might be a source for new skier visits. Maybe they will pull from Mount Snow specifically with more intermediate terrain closer to NYC.

Stratton too, but that is a slightly different client base IMO


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## Jully (Jun 22, 2017)

Also, no one mentioned that Peaks pulled in $130 million in revenue this year and has basically that on hand for off season expenditures. Pretty good news!


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## Funky_Catskills (Jun 22, 2017)

Jully said:


> I suspect cdskier's thought about Southern VT might be a source for new skier visits. Maybe they will pull from Mount Snow specifically with more intermediate terrain closer to NYC.
> 
> Stratton too, but that is a slightly different client base IMO



Biggest legitimate gripe about Hunter is the lack of intermediate terrain..


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## Smellytele (Jun 22, 2017)

abc said:


> The biggest negative of Hunter is crowds, on lifts and trails. That's what deter many from going there.
> 
> Adding terrain and a new lift will definitely help increase visitation. Good marketing notwithstanding.



As Yogi Berra said "No one goes there nowadays, it’s too crowded."


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## cdskier (Jun 22, 2017)

Jully said:


> I suspect cdskier's thought about Southern VT might be a source for new skier visits. Maybe they will pull from Mount Snow specifically with more intermediate terrain closer to NYC.
> 
> Stratton too, but that is a slightly different client base IMO



Pulling from Mt Snow wouldn't result in any earnings increase for Peaks though :razz:


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## BenedictGomez (Jun 22, 2017)

benski said:


> There lack of intermediate terrain  is defiantly holding them back. Windham has many customers for them to take and leaves much to be desired in terms of variety and snowmaking quality.



The thing about Windham though, is I find some of their trails faux-marked.  Some of their intermediates are more like beginners, and some of their black diamonds are more like intermediates.



cdskier said:


> To me a 25% expansion "sounds" more impressive than "10 new trails totaling 70 acres".



I haven't skied Hunter in years, but admittedly if they really did a 25% terrain increase, I would definitely check it out.  And the 2 main reasons I haven't been to Hunter in years are the precise reasons many in this thread have already cited, weekend crowding, and lack of intermediate terrain.


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## Newpylong (Jun 22, 2017)

Jully said:


> Also, no one mentioned that Peaks pulled in $130 million in revenue this year and has basically that on hand for off season expenditures. Pretty good news!



Except it doesn't work like that. Just because the season stops, it doesn't mean the bills do as well. Also, revenue is not profit and only a portion of profit is typically earmarked for capital expenditures.


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## cdskier (Jun 22, 2017)

Newpylong said:


> Except it doesn't work like that. Just because the season stops, it doesn't mean the bills do as well. Also, revenue is not profit and only a portion of profit is typically earmarked for capital expenditures.



Yes, but bills after the season are part of the next fiscal year (Peaks fiscal year end is the end of April). So that revenue value is their revenue for _their_ year, but as you pointed out, revenue is a pretty pointless value by itself. Their EBITDA for the fiscal year is projected to be $26-27M, which is a bit better indicator of how well they did but is still not a real "net income" number which will be substantially lower than that. They are projecting they will have $30M cash on hand though which sounds decent.


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## Jully (Jun 22, 2017)

Newpylong said:


> Except it doesn't work like that. Just because the season stops, it doesn't mean the bills do as well. Also, revenue is not profit and only a portion of profit is typically earmarked for capital expenditures.



I echo what cdskier says, also I'm aware it doesn't work like that they now have $130 million to spend however they please. It's just nice to see them have a profitable year.


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## catskillman (Jun 23, 2017)

Funky_Catskills said:


> I gotta tell you - most of us could give a sh*t about that guy..



They will when he uses them like a gate in a race!!  Saw him on the last day rolling a joint and playing with fire.  

He was attempting to send up one of those lanterns from the deck, with hundreds of folks around.

If course it was blue, and he was un successful.


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## catskillman (Jun 23, 2017)

It is impossible to find a seat in the base lodge now!  and forget about getting food due to the number of people.

But I am there to ski, not eat.  The 6 pack lines are insane now on most weekends.  I have left rather than stand in a 1/2 hour lift line.  I am there early so the parking is not an issue for me, but the lot is overloaded on weekends with people parking along the road...

I am glad I do not have property on Rusk Hollow Road.  There goes your quite mountain home.........


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## Jully (Jun 23, 2017)

catskillman said:


> It is impossible to find a seat in the base lodge now!  and forget about getting food due to the number of people.
> 
> But I am there to ski, not eat.  The 6 pack lines are insane now on most weekends.  I have left rather than stand in a 1/2 hour lift line.  I am there early so the parking is not an issue for me, but the lot is overloaded on weekends with people parking along the road...
> 
> I am glad I do not have property on Rusk Hollow Road.  There goes your quite mountain home.........



Sounds like while the terrain expansion will potentially make the lift lines better on average throughout the resort and trail crowding a lot better, there are other elements of Hunter that also need a capacity upgrade that this expansion will only put further strain on. Is there any chance for a new base area anywhere?


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## catskillman (Jun 23, 2017)

There has been talk of one at the base of the West Side for years and years and years........


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## cdskier (Jun 23, 2017)

Jully said:


> Sounds like while the terrain expansion will potentially make the lift lines better on average throughout the resort and trail crowding a lot better, there are other elements of Hunter that also need a capacity upgrade that this expansion will only put further strain on. Is there any chance for a new base area anywhere?



IF they see the increased earnings that they are predicting from this terrain expansion, I would think that is coming from increased skier visits. They are increasing terrain 25% and projecting a 25% increase in earnings. To me that means they're essentially assuming a 25% increase in skier visits. If we put 25% more people on 25% more terrain, then the way I see it you'd have essentially the same crowds you have today. Of course if they don't see the level of additional skiers that they are projecting, then a new lift and more terrain would help alleviate crowds (on trails and lifts) a bit. But without more base facilities, that part would certainly be worse than it is today.


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## Jully (Jun 23, 2017)

cdskier said:


> IF they see the increased earnings that they are predicting from this terrain expansion, I would think that is coming from increased skier visits. They are increasing terrain 25% and projecting a 25% increase in earnings. To me that means they're essentially assuming a 25% increase in skier visits. If we put 25% more people on 25% more terrain, then the way I see it you'd have essentially the same crowds you have today. Of course if they don't see the level of additional skiers that they are projecting, then a new lift and more terrain would help alleviate crowds (on trails and lifts) a bit. But without more base facilities, that part would certainly be worse than it is today.



Very true, but I too doubt we will see a true 25% increase in skier visits. Could also be they will be upping prices to get that increase in earnings too haha.


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## deadheadskier (Jun 23, 2017)

Well, the plan does say there will be a parking area over at the base of the new lift.  I wonder if a small day lodge is also in the plans.  Unless they plan on it being a satellite parking area and bussing people who need services back to the main base.

Sent from my XT1565 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## cdskier (Jun 23, 2017)

Jully said:


> Very true, but I too doubt we will see a true 25% increase in skier visits. Could also be they will be upping prices to get that increase in earnings too haha.



Hah...that thought crossed my mind as well!


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## benski (Jun 23, 2017)

I would bet the intermediate terrain increases the % of skiers at hunter buying tickets, going to ski school, and paying window rates instead of online rates since hunter is really only pleasurable if you either avoid a lot of the intermediate terrain or are drunk, scarring away families who demand intermediate terrain.


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## Newpylong (Jun 23, 2017)

cdskier said:


> Yes, but bills after the season are part of the next fiscal year (Peaks fiscal year end is the end of April). So that revenue value is their revenue for _their_ year, but as you pointed out, revenue is a pretty pointless value by itself. Their EBITDA for the fiscal year is projected to be $26-27M, which is a bit better indicator of how well they did but is still not a real "net income" number which will be substantially lower than that. They are projecting they will have $30M cash on hand though which sounds decent.



In this industry, that is more than decent! It's always great to see someone do well.


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## JimG. (Jun 23, 2017)

Funky_Catskills said:


> I gotta tell you - most of us could give a sh*t about that guy..



+1


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## 180 (Jun 26, 2017)

JimG. said:


> +1



Have to say he is really a nice guy, just like the rest of us.


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## Funky_Catskills (Jun 26, 2017)

180 said:


> Have to say he is really a nice guy, just like the rest of us.



I wouldn't doubt that at all..


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## Funky_Catskills (Jun 26, 2017)

deadheadskier said:


> Well, the plan does say there will be a parking area over at the base of the new lift.  I wonder if a small day lodge is also in the plans.  Unless they plan on it being a satellite parking area and bussing people who need services back to the main base.
> 
> Sent from my XT1565 using AlpineZone mobile app



I'e heard day lodge on the west side - like Bear Mtn at KMart...


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## Funky_Catskills (Jun 26, 2017)

cdskier said:


> IF they see the increased earnings that they are predicting from this terrain expansion, I would think that is coming from increased skier visits. They are increasing terrain 25% and projecting a 25% increase in earnings. To me that means they're essentially assuming a 25% increase in skier visits. If we put 25% more people on 25% more terrain, then the way I see it you'd have essentially the same crowds you have today. Of course if they don't see the level of additional skiers that they are projecting, then a new lift and more terrain would help alleviate crowds (on trails and lifts) a bit. But without more base facilities, that part would certainly be worse than it is today.



Yes - It's SOOOOOO bad....  A terrible place for people that suck at skiing...   But for people that CAN actually make it down a hill without blaming someone for their incompetency - it's a great mountain.


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## JimG. (Jun 26, 2017)

180 said:


> Have to say he is really a nice guy, just like the rest of us.



Seems that way to me; I've seen him skiing a few times and wouldn't notice him other than the all blue uni and his rep.


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## Funky_Catskills (Jun 27, 2017)

JimG. said:


> Seems that way to me; I've seen him skiing a few times and wouldn't notice him other than the all blue uni and his rep.



Maybe only slow skiers know him like that..


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