# 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season



## Boston Bulldog (Jul 24, 2013)

*Hurricane Discussion*

For those of you who are as obsessed with the Tropics as I am, this is your place to discuss the storms that will be spinning in the Atlantic this Summer/Fall. I hope you guys have a similar enthusiasm as I do!

While Andrea, Barry and Chantal have been weak and rather uneventful, Tropical Storm Dorian has the Americanwx guys whispering about a possible EAST COAST TRACK in the coming 1-2 weeks.

Dorian's small size and tight structure have made it a canidate for strengthening, and while the Atlantic is rather hostile right now, Dorian should reach a rather favorable spot for development around Sunday-Monday. From there Dorian could intensify into a Hurricane and either make a run at the East Coast, or continue west towards Florida. The GFS has been the most accurate model so far on this system, surprisingly.

What else do you guys know about Dorian? I feel this storm deserves to watched with a wary eye in the coming week.


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## ScottySkis (Jul 25, 2013)

To many bad memories of disturbing clean up at my job last year from Sandy so I don't really want to discuss hurricanes.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jul 28, 2013)

well, it looks like Dorian died near the Lesser Antillies. It may try and make a comeback in the Gulf of Mexico, but the eastern threat is gone


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## steamboat1 (Jul 29, 2013)

Scotty said:


> To many bad memories of disturbing clean up at my job last year from Sandy so I don't really want to discuss hurricanes.



Myself & many others are still not fully recovered from Sandy. Probably never will be.


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## 4aprice (Jul 29, 2013)

Warm AMO.  Should be action as we enter the heart of the season.  Bastardi says we're in the same set up as we were in the 1950's and to look at what happened back then to get an idea of what MIGHT happen over the next several years.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## thetrailboss (Jul 29, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> well, it looks like Dorian died near the Lesser Antillies. It may try and make a comeback in the Gulf of Mexico, but the eastern threat is gone



Thank God!  It was going to mess up plans for us this weekend.  

And in the Pacific, Flossie is heading towards Hawaii.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jul 29, 2013)

Dorian's remnants blew up today with deep convection and a 25% increase in size. Recon investigated but found no low level circulation. That may be changing as banding is becoming more apparent and rotation more pronounced. xDorian looks like a tropical storm again, but the structure isn't all the way there yet. Don't write this one off yet.


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## Boston Bulldog (Jul 29, 2013)

Looks like we may have Tropical Storm Dorian back with us by morning. A new LLC is trying to form under the convection


Satellite showing banding around center of xDorian


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## thetrailboss (Jul 29, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Looks like we may have Tropical Storm Dorian back with us by morning. A new LLC is trying to form under the convection
> View attachment 9068
> 
> Satellite showing banding around center of xDorian
> ...



NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

I have a wedding to attend in Mid-Coast Maine and don't want to get stuck there this weekend!


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## Boston Bulldog (Jul 29, 2013)

It's OK trailboss, Dorian missed the "exit" to go up the east coast. Models are tracking it through the keys and into the gulf. You should be fine


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## thetrailboss (Jul 29, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> It's OK trailboss, Dorian missed the "exit" to go up the east coast. Models are tracking it through the keys and into the gulf. You should be fine



Sigh of relief.  

Again.  

:wink:


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## from_the_NEK (Jul 31, 2013)

Annndddd.... it fell apart again


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## ScottySkis (Jul 31, 2013)

from_the_NEK said:


> Annndddd.... it fell apart again



Great to hear that, no more hurricanes hopefully ever for US last year was nuts.


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## bigbog (Aug 9, 2013)

Hope those few early, snowy predictions hold up...


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## Conrad (Aug 13, 2013)

It seems like Typhoon Utor is really kicking things up in the pacific right now, hitting the Philippines as a category 4 storm and now taking aim at China as a category 2.
*note* sorry to those who want this thread to be strictly about Atlantic storms


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## Boston Bulldog (Aug 14, 2013)

Conrad said:


> It seems like Typhoon Utor is really kicking things up in the pacific right now, hitting the Philippines as a category 4 storm and now taking aim at China as a category 2.
> *note* sorry to those who want this thread to be strictly about Atlantic storms



Haha, no need to be sorry, all tropical basins are welcome here. Utor just made landfall near Hong Kong as a Cat2

A new TD is forming in the Caribbean. If it develops it will be named Erin. The GOM has to watch closely


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## Conrad (Aug 14, 2013)

Typhoon Utor:


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## snowmonster (Aug 15, 2013)

Thanks for the post on Utor, Conrad. It took a direct hit on my homeland but north of the capital, Manila, where I will stay. Lots of damage in the north where some really good surf beaches are located. We get at least 20 typhoons a year. Growing up, you get used to a lot of floods and flying debris.


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## Abubob (Aug 17, 2013)

snowmonster said:


> We get at least 20 typhoons a year. Growing up, you get used to a lot of floods and flying debris.



Hmm. Is that anything like getting used to shoveling snow?


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## snowmonster (Aug 21, 2013)

It's actually worse.

Next storm after Utor dumped a month's worth of rain on Manila in just a few hours. Our house was flooded. Waist-deep on the first floor.


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## Abubob (Aug 21, 2013)

Seems bad enough. These guys sure aren't happy about it.


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## Boston Bulldog (Aug 25, 2013)

TS Erin died in the Atlantic
Invest 95-L in the BOC, should  be TS Fernand soon

GFS for September 1st


Two possible storms, now that's what I call an eye


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## Boston Bulldog (Aug 25, 2013)

95-L sure looks good


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## Boston Bulldog (Aug 25, 2013)

TS by Now? Recon has left Miami to investigate


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## Conrad (Aug 25, 2013)

Wow, it seems like it isn't quite the busy hurricane season they predicted. Although maybe I shouldn't be saying that until September. But usually you start to see things pick up  in August.


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## Boston Bulldog (Aug 25, 2013)

Invest 95-L now Tropical Storm Fernand packing 45 mph winds. Expected to strengthen somewhat before landfall.

Discussion:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 252331
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013
600 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX THIS LATE AFTERNOON FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR
SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 40
KT...WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH THE MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1003 MB. AS A RESULT...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM FERNAND. THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL FERNAND
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE UPDATED OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST.

THE INITIAL LOCATION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD BY ABOUT 30 NMI BASED ON
THE RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN
UNCERTAIN 280/08 KT...BASED MAINLY ON MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN A
SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE
TO THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. SOME DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE SCHEDULED
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2300Z 19.2N  95.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 19.5N  96.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  26/1800Z 20.1N  97.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  27/0600Z 20.9N  99.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 48H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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## Boston Bulldog (Aug 26, 2013)

Landfall as a 50 mph storm in Mexico. Currently a depression, should dissapate soon.


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## Conrad (Sep 2, 2013)

Inactive Atlantic hurricane season a ‘head-scratcher’
http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2021737969_hurricaneseasonxml.html


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## ALLSKIING (Sep 2, 2013)

Conrad said:


> Inactive Atlantic hurricane season a ‘head-scratcher’
> http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2021737969_hurricaneseasonxml.html


I hope its not the same guys that called for a cold snowy winter!


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## dlague (Sep 3, 2013)

ALLSKIING said:


> I hope its not the same guys that called for a cold snowy winter!



No kidding!  When it comes to hurricanes this season - "crickets"!


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## ScottySkis (Sep 3, 2013)

dlague said:


> No kidding!  When it comes to hurricanes this season - "crickets"!



This is good I don't want another Sandy one was more then I needed for a messy disaster at my job bad memories and health because of it.


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## Boston Bulldog (Sep 3, 2013)

Scotty said:


> This is good I don't want another Sandy one was more then I needed for a messy disaster at my job bad memories and health because of it.



The numbers have been done on Sandy and the track it took was a 1 in 700 years occurance, you should be fine.

Meanwhile, something is a-brewing in the Eastern Caribbean.


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## twinplanx (Sep 3, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> The numbers have been done on Sandy and the track it took was a 1 in 700 years occurance, you should be fine.
> 
> Meanwhile, something is a-brewing in the Eastern Caribbean.


I'm gonna go ahead and call BS on those "numbers" The "track" was/is not as important as the fact that it hit at high tide on unprepared stretch of coast. This IMHO was most destructive. The first major hurricane to hit in my lifetime was Gloria. Being the history buff that I am I spoke to some old-timers who said it was nothing compared to the hurricane of '38. I'm not saying track is not important, '38 barely effected the city. Being prepared, not falling into a jaded "boy who cried wolf" syndrome and knowing that IT CAN happen here are the only things that will prevent more Sandy like destruction...


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## Boston Bulldog (Sep 4, 2013)

twinplanx said:


> I'm gonna go ahead and call BS on those "numbers" The "track" was/is not as important as the fact that it hit at high tide on unprepared stretch of coast. This IMHO was most destructive. The first major hurricane to hit in my lifetime was Gloria. Being the history buff that I am I spoke to some old-timers who said it was nothing compared to the hurricane of '38. I'm not saying track is not important, '38 barely effected the city. Being prepared, not falling into a jaded "boy who cried wolf" syndrome and knowing that IT CAN happen here are the only things that will prevent more Sandy like destruction...



I'll agree with you that the lack of preparation was the most devastating effect from Sandy, but the rare track increased surge on that unprepared coast.

Interesting article on Sandy here: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2510


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## twinplanx (Sep 4, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> I'll agree with you that the lack of preparation was the most devastating effect from Sandy, but the rare track increased surge on that unprepared coast.
> 
> Interesting article on Sandy here: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2510



Fair enough. But, keep in mind, the study of hurricanes is SLIGHTLY less then 700 years old... ;-)


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## Boston Bulldog (Sep 4, 2013)

Haha, You got me there buddy:smile:


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## Boston Bulldog (Sep 4, 2013)

Tropical Storm Gabrielle forms south of Puerto Rico, moving WNW at 4 mph. Potential to become 1st hurricane of season, fortunately it is expected to NOT affect the eastern seaboard. Whew!


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## Boston Bulldog (Sep 4, 2013)

Impressive


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## skinowworklater (Sep 10, 2013)

Tropics heating up now, Gabrielle reformed and Humberto getting stronger.....


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## Boston Bulldog (Sep 11, 2013)

Well Gabrielle didn't really pan out, but at 5am today we got our first hurricane!


Humberto is strengthening and could reach cat 2 status by tomorrow. Currrently packing 80mph winds. A little eye is trying to form in the inner core, just to the south of the deep convection. It could pop out tomorrow.

Fortunately this storm is well out to sea and no landmasses, including Bermuda, stand in its path


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## Boston Bulldog (Sep 11, 2013)

Water vapor image. Core is tightening up and wind speeds are up to 85 mph. Low level eye is becoming more evident and should become visible in a few hours. What a beautiful storm.


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## skinowworklater (Sep 11, 2013)

Ok, who turned on the switch???????????


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## Boston Bulldog (Sep 11, 2013)

Wow, what a massive storm. I love these out-to-sea "gentle giants". They won't even hurt a fly, but are amazing to watch


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## Boston Bulldog (Sep 12, 2013)

Finally, the eye cleared out in the upper levels


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## ScottySkis (Sep 12, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Finally, the eye cleared out in the upper levels
> 
> View attachment 9173



Were is this supposed to go?


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## Boston Bulldog (Sep 12, 2013)

Scotty said:


> Were is this supposed to go?



Out to sea


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## Conrad (Sep 14, 2013)

Looks like Hurricane Ingrid will cause some trouble for Mexico.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/14/us-storm-ingrid-idUSBRE98D0AH20130914
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


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## Conrad (Sep 14, 2013)

And also Tropical Storm Manuel looks like it is going to hit Mexico as well.
http://www.weather.com/news/weather...teen-tropical-storm-hurricane-manuel-20130913


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## Boston Bulldog (Sep 14, 2013)

Humberto has degenerated into a strong extratropical storm near the Azores. It will traverse into warmer waters over the course of the week, creating the possibility of regeneration down to road.

Hurricane Ingrid quickly spun up in the Southern Gul, becoming a category 1 hurricane only 36 hours after being upgraded to a tropical storm. It looks disheveled, but it has a strong core of convection around a cloudy eye. Now an 80 mph hurricane. I will most likely move into Mexico during the coming days, but there is an outside (25%) chance of a Texas landfall


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## Conrad (Sep 16, 2013)

Even though the winds barely qualify it as a typhoon, it seems like *Man-yi* is causing a ton of problems in Japan right now.
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20...es-landfall-warnings-issued-in-western-japan/


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## Boston Bulldog (Oct 3, 2013)

Tropical Storm Karan has formed in the southern Gulf. May become a low end Category 1 storm before landfall in the Alabama/Mississippi area. Meh


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## thetrailboss (Oct 3, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Tropical Storm Karan has formed in the southern Gulf. May become a low end Category 1 storm before landfall in the Alabama/Mississippi area. Meh



Didn't even know about it......


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## ScottySkis (Oct 4, 2013)

thetrailboss said:


> Didn't even know about it......



It supposedly going to fall apart and bring the east coast lots of rain next week hopefully the forecast is correct and it does no damage to anyone.


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## ScottySkis (Oct 7, 2013)

Tornado warning for NYC just got really dark outside, ride home will be long one hopefully everyone stays safe.


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## Abubob (Oct 7, 2013)

Scotty said:


> Tornado warning for NYC just got really dark outside, ride home will be long one hopefully everyone stays safe.



Stay away from trailer parks, shanty towns and schools.


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 8, 2013)

Has there still not been a single hurricane this year?


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## Conrad (Oct 8, 2013)

BenedictGomez said:


> Has there still not been a single hurricane this year?



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Atlantic_hurricane_season

There have been two hurricanes. A pretty average season so far, although a surprising that the maximum wind speeds have been 85 mph when they were calling for a very active hurricane season.


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## ScottySkis (Oct 9, 2013)

Conrad said:


> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Atlantic_hurricane_season
> 
> There have been two hurricanes. A pretty average season so far, although a surprising that the maximum wind speeds have been 85 mph when they were calling for a very active hurricane season.



I watched on weather channel that there really never correct with their predictions.


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## Abubob (Oct 9, 2013)

Scotty said:


> I watched on weather channel that there really never correct with their predictions.



So they admit it! Maybe they should run for Congress.


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## mriceyman (Oct 10, 2013)

Abubob said:


> So they admit it! Maybe they should run for Congress.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone mobile app


But congress never admits it lol


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## Conrad (Oct 11, 2013)

Oh man, looks like we have a 160 mph category 5 beast heading for India right now: "Phailin"
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/northern-indian/2013/Tropical-Cyclone-Phailin
http://qz.com/134028/cyclone-phaili...d-strengthening-quickly-as-it-heads-for-land/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304066404579127411577587146.html


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## Boston Bulldog (Oct 11, 2013)

Holy sh*t. That is a freaking monster. 

Pressure down to a record breaking 884 millibars, a new Indian ocean record. By comparison; winter storm Atlas was down to 1004 millibars.

Check out that Pinhole eye!


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## Boston Bulldog (Oct 11, 2013)

Terrifying. Being called the Katrina of India.


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## ScottySkis (Oct 11, 2013)

Boston Bulldog said:


> View attachment 9280
> 
> Terrifying. Being called the Katrina of India.



So not good. I wish the people of India best with this ridiculous storm.


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## Conrad (Nov 6, 2013)

Looks like we have a beast in the Pacific, 170 mph Super typhoon Haiyan.






http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...5-an-extremely-serious-threat-to-philippines/

Hopefully snowmonster will be okay and I hope for the best in the Philippines.


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## ALLSKIING (Nov 6, 2013)

Conrad said:


> Looks like we have a beast in the Pacific, 170 mph Super typhoon Haiyan.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I went through hurricane Andrew in Miami in 92 which was a cat 5. There are no words for the power of a cat 5. Sad for those people. 

sent from my S4


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