# The Official 12/21 Storm Discussion Thread



## drjeff (Dec 16, 2008)

This one has some potential.  We finally might have the cold air, moisture and storm track to get *ALL* of the Northeast ski country a decent snow event.  That's all I'm saying.

Plus, I figure since I'm not going skiing this coming weekend, that significantly increases the chances of a good snow event!


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## Zand (Dec 16, 2008)

*12/21/08 Storm Speculation Thread*

Looking to be the biggest of the 3 this week, but the track could make this one quite messy.


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## andrec10 (Dec 16, 2008)

It WILL snow on Sunday as I have to drive back from Whiteface. Son has GS races this weekend up there. 4.5 hour drive will = 6-7 hours. I dont mind, I get to try the new Michelin snows on the Tribeca!


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## roark (Dec 16, 2008)

drjeff said:


> Plus, I figure since I'm not going skiing this coming weekend, that significantly increases the chances of a good snow event!


 
Same here. To top it off I have to drive to godfosaken Long Island (apologies to allskiing) through the system on Friday night. That makes it pretty much a lock in my book.


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## WJenness (Dec 16, 2008)

roark said:


> Same here. To top it off I have to drive to godfosaken Long Island (apologies to allskiing) through the system on Friday night. That makes it pretty much a lock in my book.



There are only two places that top Long Island on my personal "Places I hate driving to" list.

2. Jersey, because if I take the GW bridge, it's backed up, and if I take the Tappan Zee, someone will lose a couch off their pickup halfway accross the bridge (I've taken this bridge four times, there has been a couch in the middle of the highway THREE TIMES).

1. Providence, RI. It is my personal opinion that Providence is the dirtiest, seediest city I've ever been to.

-w


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## Euler (Dec 16, 2008)

Monday 12/22 is my 41st birthday.  I've taken it off as a personal day and I'd like some  snow as a present!!


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## The Sneak (Dec 16, 2008)

WJenness said:


> 1. Providence, RI. It is my personal opinion that Providence is the dirtiest, seediest city I've ever been to.
> -w



Yeah guy, in 1977 maybe. 

Been recently? Or to the East Side area?


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## WJenness (Dec 16, 2008)

The Sneak said:


> Yeah guy, in 1977 maybe.
> 
> Been recently? Or to the East Side area?



I'm there fairly frequently.

But I don't enjoy it.

Last I was there was two weeks ago to visit a friend up on College Hill.

And I was born in '81, so I can't speak to what it was like before I was born.

-w


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## Puck it (Dec 16, 2008)

Accuweather (Not so Accurate) is calling for >7" at Sunapee and > 15" at Cannon from this storm.  Keeping fingers crossed.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Dec 16, 2008)

looking like a classic Nor'Easter set up, I think everyone will see some snow NYC possible 3-6 and more 6-12+ more north....intersting to watch this one develop....


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## hardline (Dec 17, 2008)

where are you guys getting the data from?


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## Puck it (Dec 17, 2008)

Accuweather now says 6" on Sunday night for Franconia.  It changed since yesterday.


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## Vortex (Dec 17, 2008)

I happen to have Monday off.  Sunday turns in the am, watch the pats' game and ski powder on Monday.  Life is good.


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## billski (Dec 17, 2008)

hardline said:


> where are you guys getting the data from?



here is one data point:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml


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## billski (Dec 17, 2008)

Bob R said:


> I happen to have Monday off.  Sunday turns in the am, watch the pats' game and ski powder on Monday.  Life is good.



I'm thinking Monday right now.  Sat/sunday have the complexities of family life mixed in.  Who knows, maybe another wave on Sunday night!


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## billski (Dec 17, 2008)

*More info...*

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EST WED DEC 17 2008

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-180900-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-
WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
353 AM EST WED DEC 17 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

...

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND
PASS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
ON SUNDAY...THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL WILL THEN INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

*Happy Dance...THANK YOU ULLR!!!*


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## KingM (Dec 17, 2008)

billski said:


> here is one data point:
> 
> http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml



Looks like they're giving the Berkshires and the Poconos 50/50 odds of getting a foot plus. That'd be great for you guys living in the deep south.


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## billski (Dec 17, 2008)

KingM said:


> Looks like they're giving the Berkshires and the Poconos 50/50 odds of getting a foot plus. That'd be great for you guys living in the deep south.



I could never keep my Poconos and Catskills straight....  :roll:


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## KingM (Dec 17, 2008)

billski said:


> I could never keep my Poconos and Catskills straight....  :roll:



LOL. Neither can I, since I meant the Catskills. :roll:


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## drjeff (Dec 17, 2008)

Granted it's just computer models right now,  but the majority of them keep wanting to show this potential system STRONGLY shifting it's energy from it as it crosses basically Ohio to a new low roughly off Virginia which model wise wants to intesify RAPIDLY   

Frankly as long as either of the next couple events DON'T bring any ice to the areas that got hit last week, that would be a GREAT thing.


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## davidhowland14 (Dec 17, 2008)

Bob R said:


> I happen to have Monday off.  Sunday turns in the am, watch the pats' game and ski powder on Monday.  Life is good.



going to the pats game on sunday, driving up to MRG, turns on monday...so psyched.


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## billski (Dec 17, 2008)

davidhowland14 said:


> going to the pats game on sunday, driving up to MRG, turns on monday...so psyched.



Planning to meet some patrol friends at Loon on Monday.  PM if interested...


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## loafer89 (Dec 17, 2008)

I saw a forecast graphic giving North Central Connecticut - Northbound 1-2' of snow:-o


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## Vortex (Dec 18, 2008)

davidhowland14 said:


> going to the pats game on sunday, driving up to MRG, turns on monday...so psyched.



I have season tickets, but I let my buddy go once ski season starts. Seasonal fan. I prefer ski season.


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## Glenn (Dec 18, 2008)

Looking like it may mix here in CT...but that's kinda par for the course. I'm reading the NWS discussion for the Dover area...they're not going into much detail on this one yet. Hopefully, it's all snow up there.


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## Johnskiismore (Dec 18, 2008)

After Saturday I don't work until the 26th, oh this rocks, Cannon/Pats game, and I think I'll hit Cannon for the pow pow on Monday!


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## drjeff (Dec 18, 2008)

Johnskiismore said:


> After Saturday I don't work until the 26th, oh this rocks, Cannon/Pats game, and I think I'll hit Cannon for the pow pow on Monday!



Freezing rain @ the Pats game   Really had some sh$tty weather for a bunch of the last 1/2 of the season     As much as I LOVE my Gore-Tex gear,  I'm getting tired of needign to wear it for Pats games


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## vcunning (Dec 18, 2008)

drjeff said:


> Freezing rain @ the Pats game   Really had some sh$tty weather for a bunch of the last 1/2 of the season     As much as I LOVE my Gore-Tex gear,  I'm getting tired of needign to wear it for Pats games



Are you tired of your gear?  or the team?  :razz:


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## polski (Dec 18, 2008)

What's the thinking re timing of storm onset & significant accumulation, and re wind on the back end? I'm eyeing MRG Sunday or Monday.

NWS-Burlington says one model says snowfall will start soon after daybreak Sunday but another delays it for six hours, and in either case it sounds like wind may be a problem Monday. Josh Fox's blog says snow to start "later Sunday" and he pegs Monday as the big powder day but doesn't mention wind then.


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## billski (Dec 18, 2008)

polski said:


> What's the thinking re timing of storm onset & significant accumulation, and re wind on the back end? I'm eyeing MRG Sunday or Monday.
> 
> NWS-Burlington says one model says snowfall will start soon after daybreak Sunday but another delays it for six hours, and in either case it sounds like wind may be a problem Monday. Josh Fox's blog says snow to start "later Sunday" and he pegs Monday as the big powder day but doesn't mention wind then.


 
NWS is suggesting 20mph winds below 2000' before the storm and 15mph winds for daylight hours Monday.  Still too early to be certain.

The issue is really going to be the rate of snowfall.

I am planning on getting out somewhere on Monday.  If it is windy, you'll probably find me checking out the woods.  A few inches each day (stowe had about 10-12" yesterday) on top of the frozen, and add to that the sunday mix, I'm hopeful the woods will be do-able if it's windy.


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## drjeff (Dec 19, 2008)

vcunning said:


> Are you tired of your gear?  or the team?  :razz:



:lol: Just watch out V,  I'll get D to teach M the "Go Patriots" chant at daycare next weekend


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## The Sneak (Dec 19, 2008)

models are trending colder for sunday and its looking good. I want to be @ BEast tuesday.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 19, 2008)

Anybody here anything about snowfall estimates???


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## Johnskiismore (Dec 19, 2008)

For Northern New England Accuweather.com is calling for 6-12"


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## jerseyrob (Dec 20, 2008)

What's going on here guys! I thought this thread would be at least 10 pages long by now!!  Looks like Saddleback on Monday as long as the wind holds off. Maybe they could hook the T-Bar back up for a day! Hahaha.....


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## Warp Daddy (Dec 20, 2008)

another 4- 8 " predicted for tomorrow here we got officially 8  last nite but i just plowed over a foot on the level  and with the winds we had some pretty huge drifts  the neigborhood  kids are building snove caves this am  in teh drifts -- think i'll join 'em


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## billski (Dec 20, 2008)

jerseyrob said:


> What's going on here guys! I thought this thread would be at least 10 pages long by now!!  Looks like Saddleback on Monday as long as the wind holds off. Maybe they could hook the T-Bar back up for a day! Hahaha.....



Maybe they're all out on the hill?
what are you and I doing home??? :-o


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## jerseyrob (Dec 20, 2008)

billski said:


> Maybe they're all out on the hill?
> what are you and I doing home??? :-o



Unfortunately, we only got an inch or so up here and I'm working this afternoon. I'm just waiting for this next one to hit! Looks like it should be a fun ride  up to the mountain Monday morning!!


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## SKIQUATTRO (Dec 20, 2008)

Looking like Stowe/Smuggs area 8-12" a foot more east....we got  5" yesterday and another 1-3" tonight (Long Island)


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 20, 2008)

It's looking like 3-5 or 4-6 inches for Blue mountain the true mountain...maybe the peak will receive more snowfall due to orographic lift!!!!!!..7 inches with a Sugarbush ruler perhaps..I'm gonna be on my Elans because they are faster..


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## billski (Dec 20, 2008)




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## davidhowland14 (Dec 20, 2008)

Mad River Glen here I come. I just hope the driving is ok.


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## hardline (Dec 20, 2008)

i just had to go change my undies. this going to dope my ass is in the car at 5am tomorrow riding sunday, monday and tuesday. i can't friggin sit still. i could have got a room for tonight i would have gone up tonight.


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## billski (Dec 20, 2008)

Drive safe guys.  I'm heading up Monday.

At this point, EVERYWHERE looks good!

Saturday, 7am:

Bolton - 9 - 10" 
 Bromley - 11 - 13"
 Burke - 8 - 9"
 Jay Peak - 9 - 11"
 Killington - 13"
 Mad River - 12 - 15"
 Mount Snow - 12 - 14"
 Okemo - 7 - 9"
 Pico - 13"
 Smuggs - 8"
 Stowe - 8 - 9"
 Stratton - 10"
 Sugarbush - 12 - 14"


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## billski (Dec 20, 2008)




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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 20, 2008)

With the temperatues forecast to be pretty cold during the next storm..there's going to be some light and dry powder..


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## hardline (Dec 20, 2008)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> With the temperatues forecast to be pretty cold during the next storm..there's going to be some light and dry powder..



ya but is going to blown around a bunch on monday.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 20, 2008)

hardline said:


> ya but is going to blown around a bunch on monday.



Screw Monday...tomorrow going to be the powder day..


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## tcharron (Dec 20, 2008)

Almost have enough for me to ski the backyard hill now after Sunday accumulation.


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## hardline (Dec 20, 2008)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> Screw Monday...tomorrow going to be the powder day..



im leaving here at 5am to get to snow but monday is the day i have a crew with me tomorrow is a bounus day.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 20, 2008)

21 degrees...mostly cloudy skys..Winter Weather Advisory for the Poconos and Lehigh Valley...2-6 inches..pretty big range..


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## billski (Dec 20, 2008)

"Heavy Snow"
my favorite forecast


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## jerseyrob (Dec 20, 2008)

Any idea of the wind following this one? Says "blowing snow" on Monday but only gives a wind speed of 18mph.  Don't want to risk my life driving to get to a closed hill.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 20, 2008)

jerseyrob said:


> Any idea of the wind following this one? Says "blowing snow" on Monday but only gives a wind speed of 18mph.  Don't want to risk my life driving to get to a closed hill.



You can always stop at Eaton in Skowhegon if the Loaf is shut down. LOL


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 20, 2008)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> Screw Monday...tomorrow going to be the powder day..



Speak for yourself. This storm is supposed to keep cranking here into Monday morning. Hopefully there will be 2-3 feet of untracked powder on Doug's Drop at Burke. This trail hasn't opened yet this season and it is steep enough to ski in 2-3 feet of snow. I'm going for it Monday morning before the lifts turn. Wind or no wind. I've seen worse :grin:.


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 20, 2008)

jerseyrob said:


> Any idea of the wind following this one? Says "blowing snow" on Monday but only gives a wind speed of 18mph.  Don't want to risk my life driving to get to a closed hill.



The poma at Burke will likely run, even in the high winds.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 20, 2008)

I'm watching the news and they have the cancellation scroll going. Churches are canceling services tomorrow. Since when do churches close?


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## jerseyrob (Dec 20, 2008)

wa-loaf said:


> You can always stop at Eaton in Skowhegon if the Loaf is shut down. LOL



I'm thinking of just risking it tommorow night and staying at a friends house in Rangeley.  We'll just take it slow! We can't leave until 8pm.


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## hardline (Dec 21, 2008)

jerseyrob said:


> I'm thinking of just risking it tommorow night and staying at a friends house in Rangeley.  We'll just take it slow! We can't leave until 8pm.



this looks to be a pretty fast moving storm you might be ok at that time.


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## billski (Dec 21, 2008)

jerseyrob said:


> Any idea of the wind following this one? Says "blowing snow" on Monday but only gives a wind speed of 18mph.  Don't want to risk my life driving to get to a closed hill.



Those are valley winds.  Summits are gonna be a "bit breezy" as us sailors would say.  Definitely lift holds on tap.  Better to risk your life going to an open area.    I'm considering Magic for Monday.


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## o3jeff (Dec 21, 2008)

The snow has stated falling here already.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 21, 2008)

Snowing here..I'm leaving for Blue in 40 minutes..


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## from_the_NEK (Dec 21, 2008)

Snow isn't supposed to start here until Noon. But when it does its going to come down hard! :grin:


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 21, 2008)

Yuck it's a wintry mix..and 22 degrees..the roads might be rough...


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## Greg (Dec 21, 2008)

18 degrees and about an inch of new snow so far.


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## KingM (Dec 21, 2008)

Nothing yet in the MRV, but it looks like the first bands are not far off. They've downgraded our predicted totals a bit, to 9-14, with a couple more tomorrow. I'll take it.


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## Warp Daddy (Dec 21, 2008)

5 degrees here AND has been snowing for an hour or so --that I KNOW of


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## wa-loaf (Dec 21, 2008)

jerseyrob said:


> I'm thinking of just risking it tommorow night and staying at a friends house in Rangeley.  We'll just take it slow! We can't leave until 8pm.



News just said 12+ for Maine, should be a great day if you can get up there.


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## jerseyrob (Dec 21, 2008)

wa-loaf said:


> News just said 12+ for Maine, should be a great day if you can get up there.



Oh, we'll be up there! It's just whether or not the lifts will be running at Saddleback that I'm worried about.  That mountain gets windy!! I'm having a feeling it's either going to be crazy good or blown off ice.  What's really weird is that my wife is actually going for this even though we have to leave for a ten hour trip back to New Jersey for the holidays first thing Tuesday morning and haven't packed at all.


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## Warp Daddy (Dec 21, 2008)

New report says 10 -12 inches here by monday


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## jerseyrob (Dec 21, 2008)

From our local weather report:

"Snow will begin by the early afternoon, starting in the southwest and spreading northeast. The snowfall rate will pick up considerably during the evening and overnight hours Sunday. Winds will also be a problem, likely to be 20 to 30mph. As a result of snow and high winds, visibility will be near zero and roads nearly impassible Sunday night and Monday morning. Snowfall totals will range from 10-17'' south of a Lincoln/Dover-Foxcroft line to 14-18'' when you get up near Millinocket and Houlton. Some of the windward facing mountains could see totals in excess of 18''. It will still be windy Monday, so getting accurate snowfall measurements will be hard, and some roads could have large snow drifts on them. Highs on Monday will be in the lower 20's. By Monday night skies will clear and lows will once again be back to the single digits".

Should be an interesting drive tonight!


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## nelsapbm (Dec 21, 2008)

We're in the 10-15" range....Looks like it's been dumping for a while. I was lazy this morning and slept in.


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## danny p (Dec 21, 2008)

at my place we received another 4" between last night and this morning and were forecasted up to 8" today....going back outside soon.....got about 15" on the ground now!


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## Glenn (Dec 21, 2008)

2" of snow in Wallyworld. It's going to change over to a "mix" later. We'll take the Jeep out and do some shopping. I'll fire up the snowblower later after the mix winds down.


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## Warp Daddy (Dec 21, 2008)

Just shoveled MY ROOF  on our sunroom had bout 3 ft of accumulation  

we got another foot today


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 21, 2008)

The sun is shining and it's a balmy 30 degrees here in MASH..


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## Moe Ghoul (Dec 21, 2008)

Veggin out, watching pipe comp on NBC from Breck


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## Johnskiismore (Dec 21, 2008)

Three inches and falling steadily here.  Watching the snow and the Patriots are ahead!


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## deadheadskier (Dec 21, 2008)

At least five inches in seacoast NH area from the latest round.  Dumping about an inch and hour for the past two here.


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## Johnskiismore (Dec 21, 2008)

Just measured agin and it's 4.5" in the driveway


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## roark (Dec 21, 2008)

The plow guy finally came, I was getting worried. Of course, it's still dumping so he'll have to come back tomorrow.


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## Warp Daddy (Dec 21, 2008)

Watched Men's World cup GS from Alta Badia  and Women's combined 


Then went out and Plowed for the 4th time in less than 24 hrs -- Dumpage !!


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## Johnskiismore (Dec 21, 2008)

It just started dumping here again!


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## Johnskiismore (Dec 21, 2008)

10" total so far


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## riverc0il (Dec 21, 2008)

I took Ari out for a snowshoe around the perimeter trail. When we got out of the track into untouched snow, it was a few inches shy of my knees (that combines all snow in the past 72 hours) and halfway up her body in a standing position. Man, does she love the snow!!! Didn't ski today but taking the dog out for a snow shoe sure made up for that at least partially.


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## ChileMass (Dec 21, 2008)

In Northboro, MA the 3-day total is:

Friday - 8 inches
Saturday - 4 inches
Sunday - 12 inches

So a total of around 2 feet for the weekend.  It's definitely beginning to look a lot like Christmas......


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## Greg (Dec 21, 2008)

ChileMass said:


> In Northboro, MA the 3-day total is:
> 
> Friday - 8 inches
> Saturday - 4 inches
> ...



Wow! We got about 10" on Friday with another inch or so yesterday and 5 more today. It's been cloudy cold and snowy since Friday afternoon. Such a beautiful weekend. Almost felt like we lived in NNE this weekend. I hope this is a trend for the winter.


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## deadheadskier (Dec 21, 2008)

deadheadskier said:


> At least five inches in seacoast NH area from the latest round.  Dumping about an inch and hour for the past two here.



I'll give an unofficial total of today's storm at 16 inches so far here in on the NH seacoast.  Right now it's just swirling flurries. 

I'll be working from home tomorrow, the fiance has to get to work. As we live in a condo complex, 
since I made the post quoted above, I've gone out to clear off and move the fiance's car twice as the plow trucks have come through.  First time was around 7pm and there was an additional 8 inches of snow on her car.  Second time was just now and there was another 3 inches.  

There was no car parked in this spot when I went out to my car this morning at 9.







Close up of the salt/sand barrel at the bottom of the stairs that leads up to our building






her car dusted/shoveled off, ready to go.......unless we get more


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## tcharron (Dec 22, 2008)

*grumbles*  Just got done replowing half our driveway.  I swear the wind blew ALL the snow I plowed last night right back where it was the minute I closed the door last night.


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## WJenness (Dec 22, 2008)

At the Sugarloaf base this morning:





Reporting as much as 32" up high!!!

Too bad everything will probably be on WH there today.

-w


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## wa-loaf (Dec 22, 2008)

We've gotten a good 2ft+ since Friday here. Lots of drifting today . . .


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 22, 2008)

Wow there's going to be alot of flooding Wednesday and Thursday,.


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## tcharron (Dec 22, 2008)

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:


> Wow there's going to be alot of flooding Wednesday and Thursday,.



BLASFERMER!

*is that really a word?*


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 22, 2008)

tcharron said:


> BLASFERMER!
> 
> *is that really a word?*



That's for us Flatlanders...up in Northern Vermont..it isn't going to be to bad..


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## tcharron (Dec 22, 2008)

Hrm, could sucketh.  But I suppose I'll continue talking about it in the new thread.


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## riverc0il (Dec 22, 2008)

About 2' for the entire weekend. Maybe a tad more. Hard to tell with the blowing. Above my knees if I bare boot it.


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