# The Official 2/26 - 2/27 Storm Discussion Thread



## JD (Feb 22, 2008)

any speculation?


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## Zand (Feb 22, 2008)

Signifigant model divergance... some have an Apps Runner, others have a storm off the M-A coast. GFS has been most consistent bringing a storm through NNE and a warm front followed by a sharp cold front for SNE. No confidence whatsoever on timing, amount, or type yet.

Also looking at a chance for another (and should be colder) storm for next Friday after a nice little arctic blast in the middle of next following storm 1.


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## billski (Feb 22, 2008)

shh.... I already blocked Tuesday off on my office calendar.....  (seriously...)
I'll let the pent up demand whack at today's flakes this weekend.  then I'm going after the goods before this talk of ncp transforms into reality......

Kinda funny.  Whenever it starts snowing out (like today) I start humming Christmas tunes.....  "oh the weather outside is frightful...."


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## TheBEast (Feb 22, 2008)

billski said:


> Kinda funny.  Whenever it starts snowing out (like today) I start humming Christmas tunes.....  "oh the weather outside is frightful...."



Dude that is too funny!!:lol: :lol:


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 22, 2008)

TheBEast said:


> Dude that is too funny!!:lol: :lol:



It looks like rain for Vermont..hero snow..


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## powderfreak (Feb 23, 2008)

Right now, models are coming into agreement on the placement of some of the
upper level features...which leads to some confidence in the overall
synoptic output.  Now, this storm is only at 3-4 days lead time but the
models are really just beginning to get a handle on all the ingredients for
this storm...as all of this upper level energy enters a more data-rich
environment across western N.America.

Surface Low looks to track from the Ohio Valley, ENE south of Albany to just
near Boston.  Given the seasonal trend to go further northwest, I am
expecting this to track somewhere across BTV's county warning
area....meaning we'll have to deal with sleet, at least in the
southern/central areas.

Overall, precipitation amounts on the GFS, EURO, and Canadian all point
towards a moderate storm; QPF amounts are between .35-.75 so I'm leaning
towards a 4-8" snowfall on Tuesday during the day.

Will keep a few updates coming but this is our next winter storm.

-Scott

The BTV HWO from this morning...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ON TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRESENT
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH
SLEET AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. WHILE IT IS TOO SOON TO PREDICT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LOW TRACK AT
THIS TIME RANGE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MODERATE SNOW STORM
THAT WOULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL IMPACTS ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NWS FORECASTS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.


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## KingM (Feb 23, 2008)

Sounds good for the north country. We've got the base, but we need a good storm to get those woods and natural trails back up to snuff.


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## powderfreak (Feb 23, 2008)

12z NAM and 12z GFS are on-board with a long duration snow event...taken at face value they would yield a 6-12" storm for the ski resorts from Killington on northward in Vermont...and across most of New Hampshire's 'major' resorts like Loon, Bretton Woods, Waterville, Wildcat, Cannon, etc.  Same goes for the River and Loaf in Maine. 

However, I am leery of a northwest trend which seems to be a seasonal disorder this winter thanks to La Nina.  Certainly am not ruling out mixed precipitation far north until we get closer to the event, but looking good at this juncture.


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## Johnskiismore (Feb 23, 2008)

Please, I will be Sugarloaf starting Monday!:grin:


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## X-Linked (Feb 23, 2008)

TheBEast said:


> Dude that is too funny!!:lol: :lol:



Yeah, I actually have some video clips of a hike on the falls in snow.  My friend and I just start singing that and walking in a winter wonderland.  And I hate christmas music.


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## Greg (Feb 23, 2008)

The track of this storm will shift favorably and all of the Northeast will be blessed. At least that's what I'm hoping for. Positive vibes...


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## powderfreak (Feb 23, 2008)

Greg said:


> The track of this storm will shift favorably and all of the Northeast will be blessed. At least that's what I'm hoping for. Positive vibes...



Greg, how much snow did you get out of this last one?


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## Greg (Feb 23, 2008)

powderfreak said:


> Greg, how much snow did you get out of this last one?



Prolly 7" with some wet crapola on top. The local ski hill reports 7-9" and it stayed all snow. A bunch of us skied during the height of the storm which was intermittent, but hey, gotta take what you get in CT. We were lovin' it!


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## loafer89 (Feb 23, 2008)

My local NWS forecast is calling for snow on monday night turning to rain by noon on tuesday and then to freezing rain tuesday night, yummy, yummy. I saw an early guesstimate of 3-6" of snow before the change to rain for my area.

I figure it will mean a delayed school opening on tuesday, but hopefully not a closing as Warren has already had 5 snow days this year and school (foolishly) only alot's three.


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## billski (Feb 24, 2008)

It's looking pretty promising for Southern VT or NH on Tues-Wed, I am hopeful at least at the higher el's.  It seems NWS is prognosticating snow to continue through the spine while the flatlands get the niar.  Certainly north of Kmart looks like all snow.

Soooo.. the big question.  I've a choice of Tuesday or Wednesday for midweek skiing.  I had tentatively blocked Tuesday, but am starting to think Wed. might be the better choice.  I'd really like to get onto the naturals and woods, but I'm probably gonna stay in Southern VT this time.   (I head north again on Friday, so save some for me!)  If the storm comes in late it might not hit in time for me to take advantage of.  Of course there's the usual driving-in-the-snow roadway issues on Tuesday.   I think I'm talking myself into Wednesday.

Thoughts?  Tuesday or Wednesday?


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## powderfreak (Feb 24, 2008)

billski said:


> It's looking pretty promising for Southern VT or NH on Tues-Wed, I am hopeful at least at the higher el's.  It seems NWS is prognosticating snow to continue through the spine while the flatlands get the niar.  Certainly north of Kmart looks like all snow.
> 
> Soooo.. the big question.  I've a choice of Tuesday or Wednesday for midweek skiing.  I had tentatively blocked Tuesday, but am starting to think Wed. might be the better choice.  I'd really like to get onto the naturals and woods, but I'm probably gonna stay in Southern VT this time.   (I head north again on Friday, so save some for me!)  If the storm comes in late it might not hit in time for me to take advantage of.  Of course there's the usual driving-in-the-snow roadway issues on Tuesday.   I think I'm talking myself into Wednesday.
> 
> Thoughts?  Tuesday or Wednesday?



Wednesday is definitely going to be the true powder day.  Tuesday will be storm skiing in the afternoon (also quite nice) but Tuesday morning will be the same old stuff we've been skiing on.  Light snow will still be falling through most of Wednesday morning, but heaviest is Tuesday evening into the night, IMO.  

I'd say Killington to Sugarbush/MRG area will make out very well with over a foot if it stays all snow.  Actually, the number I've got in my head right now for much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and the Adirondacks is 7-14" based on a basic 12:1 ratio.  Synoptic set-up argues for .5-1.0 liquid equivalent.  Will need to look further at the mixing potential, temperatures in the snow growth region, and how quickly the coastal development gets going.

Gotta go to work till this evening, however, so will try to post a full update later tonight.


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## billski (Feb 24, 2008)

I'm liking Wednesday a lot.  Thanks Scott.

....Now, I've got four meetings to reschedule...


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## Zand (Feb 24, 2008)

Suddenly it appears that this may not even be too bad down here. Right now, the forecast says snow Tuesday morning, rain/snow in the afternoon, and snow ending in the evening for me. Not much accumulation, but it's not the big rainstorm I was fearing.


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## KingM (Feb 24, 2008)

What about wind? We're planning to go to Bolton on Wednesday, but the forecast is currently showing a lot of wind to follow this storm, which worries me a bit.


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## Greg (Feb 24, 2008)

powderfreak said:


> Wednesday is definitely going to be the true powder day.  Tuesday will be storm skiing in the afternoon (also quite nice) but Tuesday morning will be the same old stuff we've been skiing on.  Light snow will still be falling through most of Wednesday morning, but heaviest is Tuesday evening into the night, IMO.
> 
> I'd say Killington to Sugarbush/MRG area will make out very well with over a foot if it stays all snow.  Actually, the number I've got in my head right now for much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and the Adirondacks is 7-14" based on a basic 12:1 ratio.  Synoptic set-up argues for .5-1.0 liquid equivalent.  Will need to look further at the mixing potential, temperatures in the snow growth region, and how quickly the coastal development gets going.
> 
> Gotta go to work till this evening, however, so will try to post a full update later tonight.



Any thoughts on Magic?


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## billski (Feb 24, 2008)

Greg said:


> Any thoughts on Magic?



unscientific me thinks it will be at the low end - perhaps 4 to 6".  But again, too early to tell.  I'm crossing my fingers it has enough elevation to avoid the changeover.  See what Scotty thinks....


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## BLESS (Feb 24, 2008)

I'll be heading to Sugarbush  on weds....(Golden Lion stay)  so please tell me the rain will stay south on tues.  Thank you.


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## billski (Feb 24, 2008)

KingM said:


> What about wind? We're planning to go to Bolton on Wednesday, but the forecast is currently showing a lot of wind to follow this storm, which worries me a bit.



really?  I thought the winds would be no more than 15 kts on Wed. afternoon

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...e=all&AheadDay.x=12&AheadDay.y=15&AheadDay=48


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## billski (Feb 24, 2008)

BLESS said:


> I'll be heading to Sugarbush  on weds....(Golden Lion stay)  so please tell me the rain will stay south on tues.  Thank you.



The rain will stay south on tues.:roll:



What do I know, but if you read Scott's message carefully and other forecasts, there is no mention of NCP in the MRV.


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## ckofer (Feb 24, 2008)

*We've got 2 days at Sugarloaf (Tues, Weds) - this could be sweet....*


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## BLESS (Feb 24, 2008)

billski said:


> The rain will stay south on tues.:roll:
> 
> 
> 
> What do I know, but if you read Scott's message carefully and other forecasts, there is no mention of NCP in the MRV.




were the rolling of the eyes really necessary?

And, like I said, I have no idea how to read that.  What's NCP?


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## SnowRider (Feb 24, 2008)

*NCP* - Non Crystalized Precipitation

Im at Killington next weekend and there looks like snow almost every day...oh please stay that way.


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## BLESS (Feb 24, 2008)

thanks dood.


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## twinplanx (Feb 24, 2008)

SnowRider said:


> *NCP* - Non Crystalized Precipitation
> 
> Im at Killington next weekend and there looks like snow almost every day...oh please stay that way.



Thanx ...I've been to ashamed to ask:blink:


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## billski (Feb 24, 2008)

BLESS said:


> were the rolling of the eyes really necessary?



yeah, they are.  I am unqualified to make such statements....

I can wish, hope and pray, but make posits, no.:roll:


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## BLESS (Feb 24, 2008)

ah,  thought they were aimed at me.  Anyway, we're all in the same boat, hoping for no NCP.   I KNOW WHAT IT MEANS!


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## billski (Feb 24, 2008)

*Midweek (2/26-27) Stoke from MRV  - SHEEEEEUUUUUUUTTEEEE!*

(BLESS, you'll want to read this.)
Now, here's one skiing weatherman who's stoking for the storm .  I've pulled out the most inflammatory comments from Josh Fox at MRG.  I just cleared off my Wednesday Calendar.  No friends Wednesday I suppose....  

Start Quote:
*Here we go !!! Big mid-week dump is now in the making !!!!*


...Once again, after a somewhat challenging week for MRG, we do a 180 and prepare for an epic week as the pattern amplifies once again only this time the ampflication will have us rock'n in the free world (credit - Neil Young) rather than flooded at the basebox

...*The details including the possibility of 3 powder days
...*I think it is fair to say that a 3-powder day week is epic and is also quite achievable this week particularly if we can get some accumulating snow early enough in the day Tuesday. As for accumulations this is the preliminary guess. 

By Tuesday morning: Around an inch 
By Tuesday evening: 2- 4 inches 
By Wednesday first tracks: 8-14 inches 
By Wednesday evening: 5-10 inches 
By Thursday first tracks: 2-4 inches 

This makes for a storm total of  18-30 inches.

*More snow for the weekend ? You know it !!"
END QUOTE


Click on the link above for the source at madriverglen.com

*


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## deadheadskier (Feb 24, 2008)

If that makes it's way to Maine, I see a night session at Shawnee Peak on Wednesday in my future if they're still doing the mid-week night skiing now that the holidays are through.


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## billski (Feb 24, 2008)

deadheadskier said:


> If that makes it's way to Maine, I see a night session at Shawnee Peak on Wednesday in my future if they're still doing the mid-week night skiing now that the holidays are through.



From what I can see it's tracking YOUR WAY.   Clear you evening plans now!


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## powderfreak (Feb 24, 2008)

Sorry, this is mainly for the Adirondacks and Vermont.  

The more I look at this, more impressed I am but yet fearful at the  
same time.  I am confident now in more than a moderate (4-8") snowfall  
and that we will all be realizing over 8" by 6pm Wednesday.  The  
northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains could see some very  
significant totals thanks to surface low track, a well developed  
deformation zone on Wednesday, plus favorable upslope enhancement.

Low pressure is going to track from the Ohio Valley to northeast PA  
and then across central/southern New England, intensifying as it  
reaches the coastline between Boston and Portland.  I've examined the  
latest upper air model data and am quite impressed with the upper  
level support this storm will have.  A developing duel-jet structure  
will maximize divergence aloft over the interior northeast.  Thus, I  
am expecting a fairly heavy precipitation event with liquid amounts  
ranging from .75"-1.5".

Precipitation types will be difficult to pin down, but I think north  
of I-89 its all snow.  South of I-89 will become elevation dependent  
for a time with all snow above 1,000ft-1,500ft in the Killington to  
Sugarbush corridor.  Some rain may mix in on Tuesday evening and the  
first part of Tuesday night in the low elevations from BTV on south.   
I was perusing the MOS data (model output statistics) which tweaks  
current model output based on past events with similar environmental  
conditions.  It does warm BTV and RUT up enough for plain rain at  
33-34F late on Tuesday before the cold air rushes in...arguing for  
some elevation dependence during the first half of this storm system.   
I've seen this happen in the Champlain Valley several times already  
this season as warm air moves up the valley from the south.

The bottom line at this juncture...
This will be a significant storm system with snow beginning after 12pm  
on Tuesday, becoming heavy at times into Tuesday evening.  Snow will  
mix with rain at lower elevations on Tuesday evening and early Tuesday  
night...especially during times of lighter precipitation.   
Precipitation will taper off for a time as the low passes us at some  
point on Tuesday night.  Then, everyone goes back to all snow by early  
Wednesday morning...with snow, heavy at times, through noon on  
Wednesday.  Light/moderate snow will continue in the northern  
Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains for the rest of the day.   
Elsewhere, after noon on Wednesday the snow will be more intermittent.

Total accums at the ski areas (higher elevations), 7-15" in central  
Vermont (Killington to Sugarbush), 10-18" in northern Vermont (N of  
I89), and 10-18" in the Adirondacks look possible.  Here in  
Burlington, looking like 6-12".

For skiing/riding conditions this storm looks to be about perfect with  
wetter/denser snow during the first half, then light 'n fluffy with  
high ratios during the second half.  This will hide the crusty and  
unpredictable stuff nicely.  However, wind hold is a possibility on  
Wednesday (mainly afternoon) but doesn't look like a given.

Driving on Wednesday morning could be real fun with dropping  
temperatures, increasing wind, and possibly increasing snowfall rates  
even though precipitation rates slightly wane (due to much better  
dendrite growth temps).

It won't be a true blockbuster, but its another storm system to add to  
the very healthy snowfall totals we've seen across the region this  
season.  Burlington's already a foot above the seasonal average with  
another month and a half of accumulating potential.

-Scott


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## BLESS (Feb 24, 2008)

wow....great job.


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## BLESS (Feb 24, 2008)

billski said:


> (BLESS, you'll want to read this.)
> Now, here's one skiing weatherman who's stoking for the storm .  I've pulled out the most inflammatory comments from Josh Fox at MRG.  I just cleared off my Wednesday Calendar.  No friends Wednesday I suppose....
> 
> Start Quote:
> ...




ummmm, yeah.


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## danny p (Feb 25, 2008)

thanks for the stoke billski.  my schedule:
tuesday:  work/school  :???:
wednesday:  work/school :???:
thursday: pow day all the way!


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## danny p (Feb 25, 2008)

powderfreak, your reports/forecasts are very much appreciated.  thanks again!! :beer:


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## billski (Feb 25, 2008)

BLESS said:


> ummmm, yeah.


 don't get too excited now


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 25, 2008)

serious stoke!!!


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## billski (Feb 25, 2008)

Scott - at what mph does wind become a wind-hold factor, generally speaking?  NWS is predicting 15mph, but I know at higher el's it is usually more.  I know it depends on the mountain, lift type, facing, blah, blah, blah.  Just a general rule of thumb.


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## NH24fan (Feb 25, 2008)

I'll be at Stowe all week, leaving in 3 hours.  Will porbably go to Jay one day, perhaps Thursday after the snow finishes.


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## BLESS (Feb 25, 2008)

billski said:


> don't get too excited now





I'll be driving up in it, but who gives a sh*t!  YESSSSIIIRR.


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## billski (Feb 25, 2008)

I'm thinking about coming up Tuesday afternoon and bunking at Golden Lion in MRV


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## BLESS (Feb 25, 2008)

probably a good idea..... unfotunately won't be there till wed, save some freshies.


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## reefer (Feb 25, 2008)

danny p said:


> powderfreak, your reports/forecasts are very much appreciated.  thanks again!! :beer:





Ditto Scott! Very informative....................


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## Greg (Feb 25, 2008)

The forecast has even improved for SoVT:



> .......SO EXPECT A
> RAIN/SNOW EVENT...WITH TERRAIN BEING A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR AS TO
> P-TYPE. *RAIN/SNOW MIX LIKELY IN MOST LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET*
> TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN LIKELY
> ...


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## billski (Feb 25, 2008)

*Kudos to Scott*



reefer said:


> Ditto Scott! Very informative....................



At end of season (July???  ) We all should make a trip up to Burlington with a Case of Harpoon (or whatever) in appreciation to Scott.  He breaks the mold and keeps things honest and close to the sport.  

p.s., Scott, don't go corporate!


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## Greg (Feb 25, 2008)

Greg said:


> The forecast has even improved for SoVT:



The BVT discussion:



> .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
> AS OF 318 AM EST MONDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT LOOKS TO BE ON
> TRACK FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. WARM AIR
> ADVECTION SNOWS BEGIN THE EVENT ON TUESDAY...WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1
> ...


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## powderfreak (Feb 25, 2008)

12z NAM and Parallel NAM from NCEP are big, big hits for the north country.
 Upslope parameters with wrap around are maximized on Wednesday
afternoon...should see some 1"-2"/hr snowfall for a time on Tuesday night
before a 6 hour lull Wednesday AM.  Then another round of heavy snow,
especially mtns but also maybe BTV area with CPV convergence.  The CPV
convergence up against the western shores, plus upslope flow of >25kts at
H85, plus low level cold air advection to increase ratios...we really do not
want this low pressure track to change.  If this doesn't change today, I'll
be forecasting 12-24" for the Green Mtn spine, including Sugarbush, Mad
River Glen, Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs, and Jay.

-Scott


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## Greg (Feb 25, 2008)

powderfreak said:


> 12z NAM and Parallel NAM from NCEP are big, big hits for the north country.
> Upslope parameters with wrap around are maximized on Wednesday
> afternoon...should see some 1"-2"/hr snowfall for a time on Tuesday night
> before a 6 hour lull Wednesday AM.  Then another round of heavy snow,
> ...



What are your thoughts for SoVT, Magic specifically? If you had to pick a day, which would it be, Wed or Thurs? Thanks for your time.


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## Dr Skimeister (Feb 25, 2008)

I've been following this weather event, mainly via NOAA.gov the last few days. The sleet/snow line has consistently moved south over the last few days. Might make a Catskills trip tomorrow.


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## powderfreak (Feb 25, 2008)

Greg said:


> What are your thoughts for SoVT, Magic specifically? If you had to pick a day, which would it be, Wed or Thurs? Thanks for your time.



A little bit of a tougher call...but at elevation I'm thinking they stay all snow.  

This storm will be different from recent ones in that it'll be fairly black and white without a lot of gray.  By that I mean its either rain or snow...I see sleet and freezing rain playing a fairly minor role, if any.  That's not to say there won't be pockets of sleet/freezing rain along the transition zone, but it'll be elevation dependent in the transition zone.  Temperatures will likely start just above freezing everywhere...but the north will cool to 29-32F as snow develops.  In southern Vermont, the Berkshires, Albany area, Catskills and southern tier of NY...I am envisioning a solution that has a rain/snow mix into Tuesday night below 1,500ft south of I90 and 1,000ft north of I90.  It wouldn't surprise me if I saw a few rain drops at my house here in Burlington as we are so marginal in the bottom 1K feet.    But it'll be snowing from the Blanford Rest Area on the Mass Pike (near that "highest elevation before South Dakota" sign) northward up the Berkshires and Green Mountain spine...just don't get dismayed if its raining at low elevations even north of I-90 tomorrow night for a time.

So the bottom line, Greg...I think Southern Vermont has a 90% chance of all snow above 1,000ft.  Thus, the ski areas will be fine.  I'd go Wednesday because the bulk will fall there on Tuesday night with some additional accums through early afternoon Wednesday.  But that'll be the fresh day.  They won't get the backside accums areas further north will get, but would still think 8-14" is a good range for Magic...with the upper numbers allowing for a further shift south in storm track.


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## Greg (Feb 25, 2008)

powderfreak said:


> A little bit of a tougher call...but at elevation I'm thinking they stay all snow.
> 
> This storm will be different from recent ones in that it'll be fairly black and white without a lot of gray.  By that I mean its either rain or snow...I see sleet and freezing rain playing a fairly minor role, if any.  That's not to say there won't be pockets of sleet/freezing rain along the transition zone, but it'll be elevation dependent in the transition zone.  Temperatures will likely start just above freezing everywhere...but the north will cool to 29-32F as snow develops.  In southern Vermont, the Berkshires, Albany area, Catskills and southern tier of NY...I am envisioning a solution that has a rain/snow mix into Tuesday night below 1,500ft south of I90 and 1,000ft north of I90.  It wouldn't surprise me if I saw a few rain drops at my house here in Burlington as we are so marginal in the bottom 1K feet.    But it'll be snowing from the Blanford Rest Area on the Mass Pike (near that "highest elevation before South Dakota" sign) northward up the Berkshires and Green Mountain spine...just don't get dismayed if its raining at low elevations even north of I-90 tomorrow night for a time.
> 
> So the bottom line, Greg...I think Southern Vermont has a 90% chance of all snow above 1,000ft.  Thus, the ski areas will be fine.  I'd go Wednesday because the bulk will fall there on Tuesday night with some additional accums through early afternoon Wednesday.  But that'll be the fresh day.  They won't get the backside accums areas further north will get, but would still think 8-14" is a good range for Magic...with the upper numbers allowing for a further shift south in storm track.



Thank you for your insight.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Feb 25, 2008)

again, why do i live on this island??


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## WJenness (Feb 25, 2008)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> again, why do i live on this island??



You think the Throg's Neck Bridge is the gateway to heaven?

You like the risk involved in boarding LIRR trains? (mind the gap)

You're a masochist?

Take your pick...

-w


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## JD (Feb 25, 2008)

Geez.  Vouches to Stowe and MRG.  Decisions decisions....Prolly Wednesday MRG, Thursday Stowe, as I know Mansfield better and can get untyracked runs a day or two late.  What about wind?


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## reefer (Feb 25, 2008)

Powderfreak rocks - CARLOAD WEDNESDAYS AT MAGIC! Who's in???????????


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## billski (Feb 25, 2008)

this thread is making it damn hard to get any work done!


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## wa-loaf (Feb 25, 2008)

reefer said:


> Powderfreak rocks - CARLOAD WEDNESDAYS AT MAGIC! Who's in???????????



Oh man. I'm a maybe. F work. How much is a carload?


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## Greg (Feb 25, 2008)

*Winter Storm Warning for SoVT*

Say, what?



> URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
> 322 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008
> 
> ...


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## billski (Feb 25, 2008)

Greg said:


> Say, what?


itsgonnasnowsogetthebleepoutthereandrushanyoutstandingobligationstoclosure.  






whatareyoustaringat?getyourskisboardsbootsandmoveit!


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## SKIQUATTRO (Feb 25, 2008)

i just may have to jet up....


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## billski (Feb 25, 2008)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> i just may have to jet up....


  you're still thinking about it????


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 25, 2008)

This thread should be renamed "I'm now officially drooling thread"


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 25, 2008)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> again, why do i live on this island??



So you can be closer to the Gotti brothers????  

It looks like snow changing to rain here in eastern PA..


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## ski_resort_observer (Feb 25, 2008)

Looks like Thursday is going to amazing. Snow starts slowly tomorrow morning then cranks Tuesday night into Wednesday, ends Thurs morning, then blue skies real cold temps which will suck the moisture out and leave very light powder. The weather gal on WCAZ said we are going to set a new record for most snowfall in February in northern Vermont.


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## MR. evil (Feb 25, 2008)

Hmmmm. Randi and I were planning on heading to Loon on Friday as we have some free passes to burn. But we also have some free passes to Magic. What is the outlook for Magic?

Then again maybe we will just head up and ski the MRV. Such hard choices!


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## billski (Feb 25, 2008)

I am heading up to MRV tomorrow afternoon.  Feel free to give a shout./click on logo below for contact info.


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## thetrailboss (Feb 25, 2008)

Grab the powder skis folks...this weekend is looking great...6-14 inches from this storm...and another 6" or so to freshen it up on Friday night...

Winter is FAR from over!!!!


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## riverc0il (Feb 25, 2008)

JD said:


> Geez.  Vouches to Stowe and MRG.  Decisions decisions....Prolly Wednesday MRG, Thursday Stowe, as I know Mansfield better and can get untyracked runs a day or two late.  What about wind?


I am also thinking MRG for Wednesday. How are the winds looking? Seems like we MRG should be fine as winds have not really entered the discussion yet? Still betting against Jay though but still a tough decision... as I only usually ride the Jet and Bonnie and wind hold on the tram and freezer is only a bonus. Road conditions may be a factor as interstate most of the way is a heck of a lot easier than east-west travel outside a major Route number in NH/VT during a snow storm. Choices choices.


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## thetrailboss (Feb 25, 2008)

I heard on WDEV that wind will be a factor on Wednesday....


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## billski (Feb 25, 2008)

thetrailboss said:


> I heard on WDEV that wind will be a factor on Wednesday....


it is true...

RECREATIONAL FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008

.THE HIGHER SUMMITS FORECAST FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 25 MPH.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN SUMMITS BECOMING OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS. SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER
20S. EAST WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...SUMMITS OBSCURED IN CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...THEN
BECOMING CLOUDY. SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE TEENS BY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 25

MPH...INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 20 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.


WINDS…..……...Monday……..…….Tuesday

2000 feet…..…W 5 to 15 mph …….E 5 to 10 mph         

4000 feet…..…W 15 to 25 mph …...S 15 to 25 mph

6000 feet……..W 35 to 45 mph …...S 35 to 50 mph


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## JD (Feb 25, 2008)

thetrailboss said:


> I heard on WDEV that wind will be a factor on Wednesday....



Bring the skins.   Hope for wind hold so we can get a lap or two before the shralp!!   At MRG , with no real idea where I'm going, I can still find fresh corridors at 1 pm.  LOVE the single for that.  And with the snowin and blowin into wednesday....hold on to your cup for free refills of POW up high.


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## Greg (Feb 26, 2008)

Giddyup, folks!


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## billski (Feb 26, 2008)

I'm heading into that big blue blob in a few more hours.  I'm more worried about the drive than anything.  Now to troll around the 'dak's to see what is happening there.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 26, 2008)

I have some ski buddies on their way to Okemo and staying slopeside and it looks like they'll wake up to some fresh powder.

I'm a few miles from ABE in eastern PA and we had a quick period of snow..and now it's a sleet and rain..wow VT is having quite the season..81 inches at the Mansfield stake so it could hit over 100 inches including this weekends storm.  It's going to be a great late winter/spring up north for sure..


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## JD (Feb 26, 2008)

Yep.  Snowiest december and february on record.  The paddleing this spring will be great but in the mean time let's shred some pow.  Tomorrow's not going to suck.


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## rocojerry (Feb 26, 2008)

I'm sure most of you have seen this or something similar already....
weather.com's accumulation map is spelling out anywhere up far north is going to be golden with foot+.  Time to reschedule some meetings --

2-fer Thursdays @ Cannon? PM me.


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## billski (Feb 26, 2008)

*No Trax 4 U*

this storm is running at a nice speed.  There will be lots of time to dump lots of pow.   I expect that my wednesday trax (and any groomer's track/cord) will be covered by thursday am.

:flame:
I DO NOT WANT TO HEAR ANYONE WHINING THAT THERE'S "TOO MUCH SNOW!"
:flame:


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## danny p (Feb 26, 2008)

has anyone on AZ every complained about TOO MUCH snow?  that merits a lifetime ban.


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## Greg (Feb 26, 2008)

billski said:


> :flame:
> I DO NOT WANT TO HEAR ANYONE WHINING THAT THERE'S "TOO MUCH SNOW!"
> :flame:



That's a given. Some people just don't get it.


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## billski (Feb 26, 2008)

danny p said:


> has anyone on AZ every complained about TOO MUCH snow?  that merits a lifetime ban.



 I overhear that line occasionally on the lift lines, but never on this group.  I have to summons as much restraint as possible in not responding...


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## danny p (Feb 26, 2008)

that is definately not something that should be overheard in lift lines. :blink:


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## Mark_151 (Feb 26, 2008)

What does everyone feel about the possibility of wind hold on So. VT mountains on Wednesday? I have *one* day to take off, and don't want to blow it. It's either Wednesday, Thursday or Friday. Will probably hit Okemo.


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## SnowRider (Feb 26, 2008)

Theres gonna way to much snow. We wont be able to move, my corduroy will be covered up, and it will be to snowy to see.












:lol:


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## KingM (Feb 26, 2008)

Greg said:


> That's a given. Some people just don't get it.



That's funny because we just had a guest check in who uttered one of the most memorable lines ever a couple of years ago after a storm of about 18+ inches.

KingM: "How was the skiing yesterday?"

Guest (in grumpy voice): "It was alright, I guess, if you like powder."


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## WJenness (Feb 26, 2008)

KingM said:


> That's funny because we just had a guest check in who uttered one of the most memorable lines ever a couple of years ago after a storm of about 18+ inches.
> 
> KingM: "How was the skiing yesterday?"
> 
> Guest (in grumpy voice): "It was alright, I guess, if you like powder."



Gulp... did you make them sleep in a snowbank?

-w


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Feb 26, 2008)

Haha..well alot of people..especially beginners and older folks..or people from PA..are only comfortable on icy groomed trails...At Jackson Hole there were lots of people bitching about no groomed runs or bad visibility on the storm days and were desperately hoping for an end to the storm..sunshine is over-rated I want snow..and it's raining outside my window...


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## MRGisevil (Feb 26, 2008)

KingM said:


> That's funny because we just had a guest check in who uttered one of the most memorable lines ever a couple of years ago after a storm of about 18+ inches.
> 
> KingM: "How was the skiing yesterday?"
> 
> Guest (in grumpy voice): "It was alright, I guess, if you like powder."



There are actually people like that in the world? Wow... I feel a little bit sadder now.


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## hammer (Feb 26, 2008)

KingM said:


> That's funny because we just had a guest check in who uttered one of the most memorable lines ever a couple of years ago after a storm of about 18+ inches.
> 
> KingM: "How was the skiing yesterday?"
> 
> Guest (in grumpy voice): "It was alright, I guess, if you like powder."


I'm actually surprised you don't hear that more often...I'd guess that the average "few days a year" resort skier would be more used to (and happier with) groomed hardpack.


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## billski (Feb 26, 2008)

hammer said:


> I'm actually surprised you don't hear that more often...I'd guess that the average "few days a year" resort skier would be more used to (and happier with) groomed hardpack.



The consistency makes it entirely predictable which is exactly how they want it.  And it's the least amount of effort expended to ski.  "Low stress skiing".

Myself?  I'd rather crash and explode in a crevasse three-feet-deep in powder and have to swim out.  

Skiing, I tell my adult peer group, is nothing more than grown-ups playing in the snow.
For those who require a more lofty goal - it's good exercise, conditioning, strength training, tree-hugging, outdoors at all cost, back to nature experience.  But for me, it's just playing....


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## hammer (Feb 26, 2008)

billski said:


> The consistency makes it entirely predictable which is exactly how they want it. And it's the least amount of effort expended to ski. "Low stress skiing".
> 
> Myself? I'd rather crash and explode in a crevasse three-feet-deep in powder and have to swim out.
> 
> ...


Based on my very limited experience, powder is harder to ski in but easier to fall on...

BTW, any reports? I'm seeing all kinds of stuff on the radars but no precip out of my office window.


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## billski (Feb 26, 2008)

get KingM to sign in.  I think it's just starting.  The webcam in Lebanon NH shows light snow.


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## tcharron (Feb 26, 2008)

Man, Accuweather is funny.  I usually check for Bennington for the Crotched forecast, since I was on Stephies lappy and wanted to check, I went to Accuweather where she has Lyndeborough, NH in her bookmarks, about 15 minutes away.  They claim 5" for us, WITH THE 'R" work in there.  Wonder how that works.  Go up the road, get 11", over here, 5...

I feel like I'm being repressed.


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 26, 2008)

1/2 inch of wet+sticky here in St J. Should be good for bonding with the icy base. It is currently only accumulating on existing snow and not the roads...yet. :-D


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## nelsapbm (Feb 26, 2008)

It's been snowing in Burlington since 8 this morning, but doesnt seem to be amounting to much. The bulk of this storm is going to hit over night. Bring it!


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## mlctvt (Feb 26, 2008)

Mount Snow's reporting 3" so far. Their webcams also show it's snowing heavy now.


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 26, 2008)

Scott, Any updates? The storm looks like it is holding together quite well.


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## Zand (Feb 26, 2008)

About an inch here and the temps have dropped 2 degrees over the last hour or two. Snowing hard right now, we just had some huge flakes a few minutes ago but now they're normal again.

I still don't know what to expect down here for this one.


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## SnowRider (Feb 26, 2008)

Seems like reports are different everytime I look for sounthern NE. We'll just have to see how things turn out.


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## Greg (Feb 26, 2008)

NOAA is now calling for 3-6" at elevation as far south as the Litchfield hills. Maybe we'll get a nice surprise out of this one...


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## Zand (Feb 26, 2008)

^Nah, just a lot of sleet. 

Still coming down real good here. Wachusett may turn out to be pretty nice tomorrow based on the way the changeover now looks to take its sweet time.


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## WJenness (Feb 26, 2008)

Just got this in an email from Sunday River:






I wish I could get out of work for the rest of the week and that I wasn't sick...

-w


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## Euler (Feb 26, 2008)

3 inches so far in the Mt. Snow Valley and it's coming down HARD!


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 26, 2008)

WJenness said:


> -w



Who generates this for them? It seems a bit biased for Northern Maine compared to other Northern New England snow fall prediction maps I've seen today.


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## WJenness (Feb 26, 2008)

from_the_NEK said:


> Who generates this for them? It seems a bit biased for Northern Maine compared to other Northern New England snow fall prediction maps I've seen today.



I'd agree with your statement... they don't say where thier maps come from.

-w


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## Zand (Feb 26, 2008)

It's an NECN map, but it's dead wrong for MA. The 3" line should almost be down to the MA/CT border. And it also seems to be way too low for most of VT and NH. Never thought I'd get myself to say that NECN is forecasting too low.


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## drjeff (Feb 26, 2008)

from_the_NEK said:


> Who generates this for them? It seems a bit biased for Northern Maine compared to other Northern New England snow fall prediction maps I've seen today.




No way, Sunday River/Boyne posting a snowfall map that has SR and Sugarloaf as the big winners


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## SnowRider (Feb 26, 2008)

Snowing big flakes in Worcester County (Grafton MA). Got about an inch maybe two on top of existing snow becase it was cold....


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 26, 2008)

drjeff said:


> No way, Sunday River/Boyne posting a snowfall map that has SR and Sugarloaf as the big winners



Exactly the thoughts I was having when I first saw this. I just wanted to get some source facts before pointing the BS finger.


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## SnowRider (Feb 26, 2008)

Now rain here in Grafton :sad:


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## WJenness (Feb 26, 2008)

Still snowing decently here in Chelmsford, MA... roads are quite slushy... driveway probably has 1/2" on it...

-w


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## Zand (Feb 26, 2008)

Went over to rain here.


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## Justin10 (Feb 26, 2008)

A pretty moderate snowfall here in plymouth, NH right now.  Looks like 2 or 3" on the ground right now and still a long ways to go.  I'm hearing stuff about a pretty large dry slot forming.  Anyone with more experience know if this will be a factor at all?


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## WJenness (Feb 26, 2008)

Zand said:


> Went over to rain here.



Here as well.. quite a while ago now...

-w


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## riverc0il (Feb 26, 2008)

I keep changing my mind, what to do?! LOL. Nice having choices. At this point, due to driving conditions and ease of travel tomorrow, looks like Jay Wednesday, MRG Saturday, and Cannon Sunday (fixed due to being back in Plymouth at 2pm).

Moderately sticky snow here in Plymouth/Ashland at 8pm. Snowed all day without much accumulation but coming down at about an inch an hour and 2" on the ground so far.


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## wa-loaf (Feb 26, 2008)

About 2" of sticky stuff. Went to rain at 8 pm.


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## gladerider (Feb 26, 2008)

anyone around stratton? the current condition at the base according to weather underground is rain and mid station is snow.


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## Euler (Feb 26, 2008)

Just did the first shoveling of the driveway - getting ready to get out of here quick tommorow morning!  We have 8 inches so far and no rain yet.  The radar shows the rain/snow line getting really close though - my fingers are crossed.


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## gladerider (Feb 26, 2008)

Euler said:


> Just did the first shoveling of the driveway - getting ready to get out of here quick tommorow morning!  We have 8 inches so far and no rain yet.  The radar shows the rain/snow line getting really close though - my fingers are crossed.



hey Euler, are you above or below stratton? i am getting a conflicting weather report for stratton. one says rain and another says snow.


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## Greg (Feb 26, 2008)

Looking like this thing just fell apart across much of Vermont:







WTF? Tell me we're not looking at a big fat BUST?!? :blink:


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## JD (Feb 26, 2008)

Total snow in Northfield right now 6 inches and still moderate snow.  Consistancy is 1 inch edgeable wet with 5 inches fuff.  Still snowing moderately.  I expect a lull, then a ramp up of lake intesified mid day tomorrow.
6 in town means a foot on the hill.
total snow accumulation for the storm will be thursday morning.  I think they're right for us so far.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
BACKSIDE!


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## KingM (Feb 26, 2008)

Greg said:


> Looking like this thing just fell apart across much of Vermont:
> WTF? Tell me we're not looking at a big fat BUST?!? :blink:



Let me go outside and look.

Still snowing as of 9:41 PM. I have to say, I haven't yet seen the heavy snow. It's been coming down all day but for much of the day it's been pretty light.


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## ALLSKIING (Feb 26, 2008)

KingM said:


> Let me go outside and look.
> 
> Still snowing as of 9:41 PM. I have to say, I haven't yet seen the heavy snow. It's been coming down all day but for much of the day it's been pretty light.


How many inches today?


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## 2knees (Feb 26, 2008)

i think we have a bust.  magic was reporting 4" as of 4:30.  hopefully they picked up 4 more since then.  the shit base will still be felt most likely.


damn damn damn


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## JD (Feb 26, 2008)

Radar shadows.....I mean, yea it's a bust...stay home.


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## Euler (Feb 26, 2008)

gladerider said:


> hey Euler, are you above or below stratton? i am getting a conflicting weather report for stratton. one says rain and another says snow.



I'm south of Stratton.  Very close to Mount Snow in Jacksonville.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 26, 2008)

It was my understanding that the heavy accumulation was going to arrive over night and that Wednesday day, would produce more than Tuesday.  It's only 10:45.....Christmas eve like for me right now.  Time for bed, 3 inches on the ground, we shall see what the morning and day snow brings

night all


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## gladerider (Feb 26, 2008)

Euler said:


> I'm south of Stratton.  Very close to Mount Snow in Jacksonville.



i guess the weather wunderground isn't so accurate after all.....

8" with no NCP sounds excellent......looks like will be up in stratton this weekend.....although the pow may not last that long.....

would appreciate your ongoing updates...

thanks Euler


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## hardline (Feb 27, 2008)

i am soooo divided on this one. on the one hand i don't want it to snow at all because we have a grand opening next wensday so i am on nyc lockdown till next tuesday. however i have had a buch of powder days this year and hope everyone can get some. its driving me mad as well as all the people on the job site. at least i have 10 days to go somewhere after the 5th.


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## KingM (Feb 27, 2008)

ALLSKIING said:


> How many inches today?



MRG is saying they got 10-12 inches with up to 15 more by the time the storm ends. That sounds like a lot of additional accumulation to me. We'll see if it verifies.

Even if it doesn't, it was a nice little accumulation.


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## Greg (Feb 27, 2008)

2knees said:


> i think we have a bust.  magic was reporting 4" as of 4:30.  hopefully they picked up 4 more since then.  the shit base will still be felt most likely.
> 
> 
> damn damn damn



Magic reports 10" at the base this morning.


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## JD (Feb 27, 2008)

Nay sayers......Sheesh.  Goin to the glen now.


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## danny p (Feb 27, 2008)

still seems to be quite a bit of blue on the intellicast radar, hopefully it stays that way all day!!  Either way, I'm sure its gonna be great today and/or tomorrow!


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## Euler (Feb 27, 2008)

My unofficial, non-scientific method of plunging my kids ruler into the snow on an unshovelled sidewalk until it hits something hard yields a snowfall measurement of 11" so far.  1 to 3 more expected today.  Looks like the rain never happened!!

Got to go....get the kids dressed....drive 20 minutes...and SKI :grin: !!


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## WJenness (Feb 27, 2008)

Sunday River is reporting 13" as of 6:45AM...

-w


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## tequiladoug (Feb 27, 2008)

I checked some reports

jay=12 inch 
wf=8 
gore=12 
mt snow=12
stratton=11


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## midd (Feb 27, 2008)

attitash reporting 14"


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## BLESS (Feb 27, 2008)

SB reporting 8....?


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## thetrailboss (Feb 27, 2008)

Yep...we are happy with 8, but it is not the 16 that was forecast.  Things slowed down last night and this morning.....


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## Greg (Feb 27, 2008)

It seems like Northern NNE fell short of the forecast totals, but SoVT totals seem to be right within the ranges that were forecast. As skiers, I think we focus too much on the upper end of the range too much...


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## WJenness (Feb 27, 2008)

Loon's got the biggest report I've seen so far... 15"

-w


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## Zand (Feb 27, 2008)

Here in central MA, we made a net gain even with the few hours of rain. Every little bit of base counts from here on out...


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## JD (Feb 27, 2008)

MRG reported accurately for the most part, but wind moved snow fairly significantly.  Skiable conditions 6"-15".


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## KingM (Feb 27, 2008)

JD said:


> MRG reported accurately for the most part, but wind moved snow fairly significantly.  Skiable conditions 6"-15".



I think it's that they were saying 15-25 before the storm started and we focused on that upper amount. I was certainly happy with the snow at Bolton today. It was only a disappointment if you thought you were getting 2+ feet. As a good little dump, it was very nice.


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## nelsapbm (Feb 27, 2008)

It's still snowing at my house....looking at the radar it seems as if a little upslope and/or lake effect has set up. Not snowing hard, but definately an inch or two more since I got home from work around 5:30. The radar doesnt seem to show snow in the mountains...is the radar not picking it up?


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## billski (Feb 27, 2008)

Subarbush skied like there was about 8" down.  Most of it blew into the woods.  So of course, I had to go after it....  Report/pics on Thursday.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 28, 2008)

Shawnee Peak yesterday reported a foot, which was pretty accurate.


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 28, 2008)

Burke reported 12-13 which was accurate. At 5:30 AM only about 8-9 but got to the 12" mark by noon .


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