# March 13th (Don't Crucify me!)



## Boston Bulldog (Mar 5, 2014)

8 days is a LONG ways away; however, it is almost impossible to ignore the signs Mother Nature is giving us. (Don't crucify me for this if it goes wrong haha, this is just a technical discussion)

*First: NAO/PNA Teleconnection*

When the NAO goes Negative, and the PNA goes positive, a storm track normally sets up along the Eastern Seaboard. This doesn't mean a storm WILL happen, but if one was to form, it would be coastal. Here's the Teleconnection indices for the coming weeks.



It is obvious that the PNA goes WAY positive, and the NAO trickles down to negative. This means= East Coast storm track

*Second: The Ingredients*

So we have the track, now where are the ingredients? Right here:


The flow has split into 3 different jet streams, the Arctic, Polar and Subtropical. In this current model depiction, there is energy along each jet, running in sync with each other. With this Teleconnection signal, if 2 of these were to phase together, we have ourselves a storm ripping up the east Coast. If a Triple Phaser occurs (Unlikely) this storm could be biblical. Right now, the Models are all over the place, some stay no storm, some say phase, some say Triple Phase Superbomb. 

To recap, we have the storm track and the energy. Now lets take a look at the models.

*Third: Model Discussion (Written By a Professional Meteorologist*

CDC/CPC agreed upon PNA spike soaring over +3SD, temporally collocated with an NAO fall from that's > 2 SD right across the ides of the month.  Meanwhile, the MJO is even stronger in phase 8 from now through the 15th leading up to that date... (see below)

It really is a pretty fantastic teleconnector convergence and almost a hemispheric syncing toward unleashing something large.  How large and what, still to be determined. 

We'll see how it flops out of the erroneous runs that will be rife for the time being. 

NAVGEM ... last 3 cycles are nailing impressive stream interaction and signaling possible massive bomb -- rather than roll-eyes and make fun, folks who know better would raise an eye-brow when a model with a specific progression bias overcomes it's native short-coming to express a solution that goes against, but one that fits into fore said teleconnector arguments.

The Euro solution should be taken seriously...  The 12z GFS while not on board migrated substantially into this amplitude with better expressed western ridge and digging jet into the Lakes region during the same time...  

*Fourth: Blocking*

A Greenland block is a staple of a major snowstorm. That NAO turns negative at jut the right time, allowing for a weak block to be in place. Albeit weak, this block helps force the system up the coast, instead of being flung out to sea. Watch out for a Cutter though, that is also in the realm of possibility.

...........


So to point out the elephant in the room, there is a whopper of a signal for March 13th. (caution, its a signal, not a reality) Every key ingredient is in place, now can the atmosphere bake a cake? We'll find out over the coming week.

Should be fun!


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 5, 2014)

Also to note, the energy from this system is currently in the form of a Typhoon in the Pacific, just to give you an idea of what we are dealing with.

Our "storm" in its infancy, 10,000 miles away.


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## Tin (Mar 5, 2014)

I'm getting some 2x4s and nails...


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## Big Game (Mar 5, 2014)

Contributions like this make AZ great to lurk on. Bulldog you are freaking nuts and you are beautiful. This is awesome speculation. Storm hittting will be a bonus.


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## JDMRoma (Mar 5, 2014)

So Your saying I should be putting in for a day off on the 14th then………….


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 5, 2014)

JDMRoma said:


> So Your saying I should be putting in for a day off on the 14th then………….



No.  Because odds are this will never happen as depicted.  Most "monster storms" on models 9 days out do not come to fruition.  I dont know if anyone keeps stats on it, but I'd say 1 in 5, or about 20% chance of it occurring, which is the same as saying there's 80% odds it wont be as big as modeled.  The only thing you do in this timeframe is be happy a storm IS showing, and just keep hoping it doesnt "disappear" in the next few day.  If you can get to 4 days out and it's still there, then it's time to do your happy dance. Eight or nine days out = not so much.   But this one does have a lot going for it, so fingers (and toes) crossed.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 5, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> No.  Because odds are this will never happen as depicted.  Most "monster storms" on models 9 days out do not come to fruition.  I dont know if anyone keeps stats on it, but I'd say 1 in 5, or about 20% chance of it occurring, which is the same as saying there's 80% odds it wont be as big as modeled.  The only thing you do in this timeframe is be happy a storm IS showing, and just keep hoping it doesnt "disappear" in the next few day.  If you can get to 4 days out and it's still there, then it's time to do your happy dance. Eight or nine days out = not so much.   But this one does have a lot going for it, so fingers (and toes) crossed.



Couldn't have said it better.


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## MadMadWorld (Mar 5, 2014)

Lloyd: So you're telling me there's a chance.....YEAH!


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## Puck it (Mar 5, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> Lloyd: So you're telling me there's a chance.....YEAH!




And nod you totally redeem yourself!


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## jack97 (Mar 6, 2014)

When I was living in CA, it was cool seeing how the local mets would track storms developing from the pacific and then you can see how it rolls through the US. That year, had some moderate drought so any heavy rains causing severe mud slides was a major concern. 

Very cool to see but I never could get use to watching nfl in the morning :?


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## ScottySkis (Mar 6, 2014)

I want ti hear that the Catskills will get 200 inches of snow fron this storm lol. Even if this doesnt happen i still love snow talk why because i like all of you am happily addicted to snow talk in winter and maybe something else but to lol.


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## skifree (Mar 6, 2014)

will milk and bread last 7 days?


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## moguler6 (Mar 6, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> Lloyd: So you're telling me there's a chance.....YEAH!



Nice.  You beat me to it.


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## bigbog (Mar 6, 2014)

ScottySkis said:


> I want ti hear that the Catskills will get 200 inches of snow fron this storm lol. Even if this doesnt happen i still love snow talk why because i like all of you am happily addicted to snow talk in winter and maybe something else but to lol.



Wouldn't that be something....  Media would be calling it a national disaster...am tired of turning tv on(once in a while) and listening to media's spin on Putin's credit history.  Would solidify the Catskills as the _Powder Capital of the World_ ...  If temps would stay safe = all good.


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## MadMadWorld (Mar 6, 2014)

ScottySkis said:


> I want ti hear that the Catskills will get 200 inches of snow fron this storm lol. Even if this doesnt happen i still love snow talk why because i like all of you am happily addicted to snow talk in winter and maybe something else but to lol.



Maybe?


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## Bostonian (Mar 6, 2014)

Bluto:  Nothing is over until we decide it is!  Was it over when the Germans bombed pearl harbor?  Hell no!

As far as I'm concerned, anything is game at this point!  I would LOVE a powder day Magic on Thursday or Friday!


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## WJenness (Mar 6, 2014)

What do I need to burn to make this happen?

If it is my office, I'm happy to make that sacrifice...

The past three days have made me want to throw things in here anyway.


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 6, 2014)

My (totally non-scientific, anti-jinxing, curmudgeon) predictions:

Scenario 1: Storm blows up, dumps 3 feet of snow in CT/MA but there is a sharp cutoff on the north side and NVT gets 2.567” (still more snow than we have received in the last 3 weeks). White Mtns heavily shadow the NEK.
Probability=40%

Scenario 2: Storm is a cutter and tracks through Ottawa, dumping 3” of hot rain on New England.
Probability=40%

Scenario 3: The storm barely organizes and produces widespread snow showers in NE that accumulate enough to barely cover the dirt 3 week old snow currently on the ground. Shovels stay in the garage.
Probability=40%


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 6, 2014)

EURO drums up another monster. This is also the 1st solution where it brings the polar jet into play. Not quite a Triple Phase, but getting there.

The only triple phaser I know of that hit New England as a snowstorm and not a cutter is March 1993. ( probably not accurate)


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 6, 2014)

The storm actually goes berserk a few hours after this frame haha.

NEK jackpot


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## gladerider (Mar 6, 2014)

Bring it on. 

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## MadMadWorld (Mar 6, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> EURO drums up another monster. This is also the 1st solution where it brings the polar jet into play. Not quite a Triple Phase, but getting there.
> 
> The only triple phaser I know of that hit New England as a snowstorm and not a cutter is March 1993. ( probably not accurate)



Well there were 5 triple phasers since then I believe.  Not sure how many were cutters.


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## deadheadskier (Mar 6, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> My (totally non-scientific, anti-jinxing, curmudgeon) predictions:
> 
> Scenario 1: Storm blows up, dumps 3 feet of snow in CT/MA but there is a sharp cutoff on the north side and NVT gets 2.567” (still more snow than we have received in the last 3 weeks). White Mtns heavily shadow the NEK.
> Probability=40%
> ...



I like you from_the_NEK.   Always working hard, giving an extra 20%  :lol:


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 6, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> Well there were 5 triple phasers since then I believe.  Not sure how many were cutters.



One famed triple phaser was the Cleveland Superbomb of 78. I don't know how it treated NE, but it was probably a torch over here. 

That apparently was a mega-cutter


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## skifree (Mar 6, 2014)

I like your style. hope it works


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## Puck it (Mar 6, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> My (totally non-scientific, anti-jinxing, curmudgeon) predictions:
> 
> Scenario 1: Storm blows up, dumps 3 feet of snow in CT/MA but there is a sharp cutoff on the north side and NVT gets 2.567” (still more snow than we have received in the last 3 weeks). White Mtns heavily shadow the NEK.
> Probability=40%
> ...



120% probability...   Sweet!


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 6, 2014)

Exactly, 120% probability the NEK gets screwed.


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## Bostonian (Mar 6, 2014)

Still way too early... I am just hoping for one last good dumping before the w*rm weather hits... I am loving how many people are angry at the cold.  me I love it!


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 6, 2014)

Wow, toss the GFS. Initialization errors and convective feedback problems galore. 

This is not a typo, the computers got skrewy and deepened the low from 992 to 882 in 12 hours... 882! Better smooth out that bug quick or else twittercasters will go insane! (Or maybe its on to something:wink


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 6, 2014)

Wow, toss the GFS. Initialization errors and convective feedback problems galore. 

This is not a typo, the computers got skrewy and deepened the low from 992 to 882 in 12 hours... 882! Better smooth out that bug quick or else twittercasters will go insane! (Or maybe its on to something:wink

ETA: They took that disaster down and replaced it with a new run. Kinda meh actually, it doesn't phase in the southern system. I wish I had a picture of the black hole that would have been over Nova Scotia.


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## catsup948 (Mar 6, 2014)

Lowest non hurricane mb ever measured in the lower 48 was on long island in 1914. 952 mb.  882 would be the apocalypse!  Ha!

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## Tin (Mar 7, 2014)

As of now another great looking system for the Poconos, Cats, and Berks (4-8") . Might not get much north of Mountain Snow.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 7, 2014)

Tin said:


> As of now another great looking system for the Poconos, Cats, and Berks (4-8") . Might not get much north of Mountain Snow.[/QUOTE  zit ]
> It is my belated Birthday gift to everyone.


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## Tin (Mar 7, 2014)

Key words...as of now. So many misses this year I won't believe it until it's over.


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## catsup948 (Mar 7, 2014)

This has that classic late winter look to it rain down by the coast and decent snow in the mountains.

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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 7, 2014)

Tin said:


> As of now another great looking system for the Poconos, Cats, and Berks (4-8") . Might not get much north of Mountain Snow.



Huh? Not at all

Killington through SR look great right now


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## Tin (Mar 7, 2014)

Through what day? This is through Thursday morning.


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## ZYDECORICH (Mar 7, 2014)

A miller B storm....perhaps.


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## slatham (Mar 7, 2014)

12Z Euro has storm. 982 low just off cape cod at 18Z Thur. Its been fairly consistent, but the other models are not there. Battle of the models!


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## jrmagic (Mar 7, 2014)

slatham said:


> 12Z Euro has storm. 982 low just off cape cod at 18Z Thur. Its been fairly consistent, but the other models are not there. Battle of the models!



The models can battle all they want as long as the Euro comes out on top in this one


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## MadMadWorld (Mar 7, 2014)

Isn't there a saying.....Europeans are always right?


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## St. Bear (Mar 7, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> Isn't there a saying.....Europeans are always right?



Probably depends if the Euro comes from France or not.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 7, 2014)

Big azz storm, everyone gets 1+ inches if QPF.

All downhill from here


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 7, 2014)

GFS also looks good. Less intense, but a large coverage area as well.


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 7, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> My (totally non-scientific, anti-jinxing, curmudgeon) predictions:
> 
> Scenario 1: Storm blows up, dumps 3 feet of snow in CT/MA but there is a sharp cutoff on the north side and NVT gets 2.567” (still more snow than we have received in the last 3 weeks). White Mtns heavily shadow the NEK.
> Probability=40%


Sounds like it is setting up as some sort of variation of scenario 1.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 7, 2014)

As a warning, please toss all hope of a Triple Phase occurring. That was a pipe dream to begin with, and it looks like it won't happen.


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## hammer (Mar 7, 2014)

Starting to see some mention in the NWS forecast on this one.


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## octopus (Mar 7, 2014)

euro models?  kate upton says 4ft dump from mass border to canada. yay kate!


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## jrmagic (Mar 7, 2014)

octopus said:


> euro models?  kate upton says 4ft dump from mass border to canada. yay kate!



All well and good except she was built in the good ole USA


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## MadMadWorld (Mar 7, 2014)

jrmagic said:


> All well and good except she was built in the good ole USA



She sure was! God bless America


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 7, 2014)

GFS and EURO ensembles cave. It's a bomb


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## Savemeasammy (Mar 8, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> GFS and EURO ensembles cave. It's a bomb



Good.  


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


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## billski (Mar 8, 2014)

skifree said:


> will milk and bread last 7 days?


Yes, but beer won't :beer:


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## billski (Mar 8, 2014)

*Hopeful*

I'll take some freshies for next week, please.   We
 usually get some sort of dump in March, looking forward to it!


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## MommaBear (Mar 8, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> GFS and EURO ensembles cave. It's a bomb



Good bomb as in there will be snow.  Or bomb as in no longer a possibility?  I can't keep up with the lingo...


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## Tin (Mar 8, 2014)

This will not happen...why? Because we are planning on Magic, Bush, MRG, and maybe Smuggs Thursday-Sunday.


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## steamboat1 (Mar 8, 2014)

Tin said:


> This will not happen...why? Because we are planning on Magic, Bush, MRG, and maybe Smuggs Thursday-Sunday.



Please cancel plans.


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## Tin (Mar 8, 2014)

Cancellation free in Barre until the 11th. I'll cancel and rebook Wednesday night just for you.


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## lerops (Mar 8, 2014)

I usually time the big dumps well. I finish my trip and ina few days, there is a big one. Leaving Smuggs on Monday. You are all welcome.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 8, 2014)

Whoa... EURO just keeps on getting better. 1.50 inches of QPF up to Stoweland, R/S line MA/NH boarder. Ullr may be answering our prayers. (NNE that is, washout for Poconos, coin toss for Catskills)


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 8, 2014)

Completely and utterly crushed


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 8, 2014)

Fully phased nuke, injected with Typhoon moisture. Gah why can't this be tomorrow!


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 8, 2014)

Sh!t. If this is right, Nantucket will be pushing 50 while the Berks are under 20 and puking fluff.



So much for a toss up, it's a late season wind whipped blizzard for everyone (on this run, this WILL change). Pastebomb to start, transforms into a raging blizzard (winds ftl in this one)


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 8, 2014)

MommaBear said:


> Good bomb as in there will be snow.  Or bomb as in no longer a possibility?  I can't keep up with the lingo...



Meteorological bomb. This occurs when a storm goes under bombogenesis and rapidly deepens, similar to a powerful hurricane.

All the big Nor' Easters tend to do this.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 8, 2014)

And here's the GFS


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## HowieT2 (Mar 8, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> And here's the GFS
> 
> View attachment 11641



F the Gfs.


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## billski (Mar 8, 2014)

St. Bear said:


> Probably depends if the Euro comes from France or not.


  LOL!  I was thinking the same thing!!!


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## Wavewheeler (Mar 8, 2014)

A dumping on Thursday in the Cats and LET IT STAY COLD..It's what I want because I have a reservation to go skiing at Hunter March 19-20. 

I love reading this forum. The rest of the world wants Spring in a big way but here it's:


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## Tin (Mar 8, 2014)

Diving SE....again.


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## billski (Mar 8, 2014)




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## catsup948 (Mar 8, 2014)

Ride the Euro.

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## catsup948 (Mar 8, 2014)

Tomorrow we start getting inside 100 hours let's see if the Euro holds pat!  I'm very quickly getting over being sick thinking about this potential monster!

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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 8, 2014)

Tin said:


> Diving SE....again.



Are you referring to the GFS? It actually went north from 12z


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## steamboat1 (Mar 8, 2014)

Tin said:


> Diving SE....again.





Boston Bulldog said:


> Are you referring to the GFS? It actually went north from 12z


Is that good or bad?


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 8, 2014)

Good


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## skifree (Mar 8, 2014)

Going to magic thurs and sure hope I don't pay $15


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## steamboat1 (Mar 9, 2014)

Sun.- Mon. looking good & then again Wed. -Thurs. It's going to be a great week in VT.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 9, 2014)

Another crushing hit per EURO


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## hammer (Mar 9, 2014)

What's the latest on the rain/snow line?  Have some mild weather forecast for Tuesday...


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 9, 2014)

hammer said:


> What's the latest on the rain/snow line?  Have some mild weather forecast for Tuesday...



It's been waffling between 495 and Concord NH. Latest run was the warmest yet but still all snow for the ski areas (excepting Wachusett and Sundown) Berks are a coin toss, as well as the Cats.


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## wa-loaf (Mar 9, 2014)

I've got a problem with one of my tires. If I have to replace it I'm not likely to buy new snows at this point and will just put the all seasons on. You are all welcome.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 9, 2014)

GFS caves way north and is more amped. The king (EURO) rules again.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 9, 2014)

Heavy Heavy snows


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## dmw (Mar 9, 2014)

Any idea of projected timing? I have to pick someone up at the airport midday Wednesday... A Liftopia for Crotched Thursday... Wondering if I'll even be able to get there!


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## billski (Mar 9, 2014)

Yeah right.  If this comes to pass, I'm quitting my job until July!


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## billski (Mar 9, 2014)

wa-loaf said:


> I've got a problem with one of my tires. If I have to replace it I'm not likely to buy new snows at this point and will just put the all seasons on. You are all welcome.


wa-loaf, If we believe BB, I'm afraid snow tires will be no match for the incoming.  You'll need to rent a Humvee nonetheless!


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## flightschool (Mar 9, 2014)

Will be at Loon or SR weds/thurs if this plays out.   Glad I kept the snows on, almost took them off this weekend.


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## billski (Mar 9, 2014)




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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 9, 2014)

billski said:


> wa-loaf, If we believe BB, I'm afraid snow tires will be no match for the incoming.  You'll need to rent a Humvee nonetheless!



That's not all one storm. A couple 1-3 type deals will be swinging through NNE during the next couple days.


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## billski (Mar 9, 2014)

dmw said:


> Any idea of projected timing? I have to pick someone up at the airport midday Wednesday... A Liftopia for Crotched Thursday... Wondering if I'll even be able to get there!


NWS sez:

BUT
THERE ARE QUESTIONS ON TIMING.  THE GGEM IS FASTEST...BRINGING THE
LOW PAST NANTUCKET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THE GFS IS ABOUT 4-6 HOURS
SLOWER...THE ECMWF ANOTHER 6 HOURS SLOWER WITH PASSAGE AT THE START
OF THURSDAY.


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## billski (Mar 9, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> That's not all one storm. A couple 1-3 type deals will be swinging through NNE during the next couple days.


Yeah, but 3 feet?  I'd be thrilled at 1/3 of this.   NWS anticipates a high moisture content.  That would be tough.


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## billski (Mar 9, 2014)

NWS Isn't sticking it's neck out yet....

ONE COMPONENT...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...IS STILL FAR
FROM LAND AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS.  SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE STORM REMAIN LOW. BUT MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTANT IN ADVERTISING STORMINESS FOR WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. WILL INDICATE HIGH-END LIKELY POPS DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM AND MAINTAINING CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING IN
RECOGNITION OF THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.


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## billski (Mar 9, 2014)

snow-forecast.com is onboard with 12" for all of New England.  Flip a coin, pick any mountain 

This could require some  pre-storm staging.


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## billski (Mar 9, 2014)

A foot in 12 hours? WNY better get to the pool store and stock up on snorkels!


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 9, 2014)

billski said:


> Yeah, but 3 feet?  I'd be thrilled at 1/3 of this.   NWS anticipates a high moisture content.  That would be tough.



Don't kill the messenger  you gotta say what the masses wanna hear.


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## billski (Mar 9, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Don't kill the messenger  you gotta say what the masses wanna hear.


If there is only one thing I've learned about the NWS, it's this.  It's not about the weather.  It's about safety.  It's right in their mission statement.  It's more about safety than the weather.  Meteorologists work in the boiler room, but the safety guys pilot the ship.


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## billski (Mar 9, 2014)

156 hours from now.  u due da mat.


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## billski (Mar 9, 2014)

Here's a sight for sore eyes. 7 day accumulation. use 10-12" snow-qpf equivalent.   What's that?  A 2.7 QPF?


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## Euler (Mar 9, 2014)

Oh my lord in heaven...please hear my prayers...



billski said:


> Here's a sight for sore eyes. 7 day accumulation. use 10-12" snow-qpf equivalent.   What's that?  A 2.7 QPF?


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## SnowRock (Mar 9, 2014)

billski said:


> Here's a sight for sore eyes. 7 day accumulation. use 10-12" snow-qpf equivalent.   What's that?  A 2.7 QPF?



I could get down with this! Was suppose to head up to stowe Thursday, thinking Of heading up from NYC Wednesday night right  after work instead.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 9, 2014)

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/n...ww/leads_images/satellite/EP1/IR/&NUMBLOOP=10

Storm on the left is what's coming Wed/Thurs


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## j law (Mar 9, 2014)

Any estimates on when the storm will start and end?  I was thinking of driving up from NYC on Wednesday too but I think it might be better to leave early in the am on Thurs...


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## flightschool (Mar 9, 2014)

j law said:


> Any estimates on when the storm will start and end?  I was thinking of driving up from NYC on Wednesday too but I think it might be better to leave early in the am on Thurs...



Impossible call at this time but I'de say weds night.


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## billski (Mar 9, 2014)

j law said:


> Any estimates on when the storm will start and end?  I was thinking of driving up from NYC on Wednesday too but I think it might be better to leave early in the am on Thurs...


Did you read through this thread?  #90


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## nanjil (Mar 9, 2014)

Bring it on baby! I need to decrease my FPF (Faceplant Frequency) in the woods


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## skifree (Mar 9, 2014)

billski said:


> Here's a sight for sore eyes. 7 day accumulation. use 10-12" snow-qpf equivalent.   What's that?  A 2.7 QPF?



Working on positioning plans now.
Bring it on leprechaun !


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## Wavewheeler (Mar 9, 2014)

Unfortunately that storm for St. Patricks Day is a damn southern storm and not supposed to do much up north but it sure could mess up work for me here at the Jersey Shore if IT SNOWS ON THE TWO DAYS I'M SUPPOSED TO WORK THAT WEEK  

I'm praying that it goes NORTH because I have plans to ski at Hunter the Wed/Thursday after on the 19-20. I'm hoping we are done with these southern storms and it all goes NORTH to the mountains like it's supposed to!


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## steamboat1 (Mar 9, 2014)

skifree said:


> Working on positioning plans now.
> Bring it on leprechaun !



Leaving early in the morning (Mon.) for a week in VT. I think I'll be well  positioned. Hoping for a few inches or more here & there before the  possible storm Wed. night. 						Forecast looks great with possible snow almost everyday for the week.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 9, 2014)

An early first call map.


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## ss20 (Mar 9, 2014)

Looks like a soaker for the CT and eastern MA hills.  Berkshire and Cats might make it out alive.  Prime ski country looking good.  I'd like to see Jay get a good 2ft outta this one.  The NEK has certainly struggled this season.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 9, 2014)

The Canadian model has generally kicked the Euro's ass this winter, so I'd probably go with that were I a betting man.  Here's what it shows for the storm (I didn't bother running the panels before/after these, but you can add another inch or two more snow)












Add it all up, includind the pre/post flullies etc... and you're probably looking at 8" to 10" for most of ski country.


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## Wavewheeler (Mar 9, 2014)

Now THIS looks awesome: 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/northeast-midwest-snow-winter/24214502


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## catsup948 (Mar 9, 2014)

Wavewheeler said:


> Unfortunately that storm for St. Patricks Day is a damn southern storm and not supposed to do much up north but it sure could mess up work for me here at the Jersey Shore if IT SNOWS ON THE TWO DAYS I'M SUPPOSED TO WORK THAT WEEK
> 
> I'm praying that it goes NORTH because I have plans to ski at Hunter the Wed/Thursday after on the 19-20. I'm hoping we are done with these southern storms and it all goes NORTH to the mountains like it's supposed to!



GFS out in lala land actually brings a decent storm into Northern New England St Pattys day!

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk


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## Wavewheeler (Mar 9, 2014)

That would be awesome..Catskills on up for St. Patty's Day.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 10, 2014)

Sn





> ow for North Vermont from this coming storm?


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## billski (Mar 10, 2014)

The winds could make choosing a destination and travel time tricky.


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## moguler6 (Mar 10, 2014)

Gray ME NOAA map is out.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnow.php


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## Tin (Mar 10, 2014)

Magic Thursday! Need to leave a solid hour earlier though. Travel will suck. This could ruin the Berkshires, saw a model of over an inch of rain before finishing up as 4-6" of snow.


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## moguler6 (Mar 10, 2014)

Here's the Burlington NOAA.  Looking good.  

http://www.weather.gov/btv/stormtotalsnow


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## ScottySkis (Mar 10, 2014)

https://www.facebook.com/Plattekill?ref=stream

Possible "POWDER DAIZE" OPENING for Thursday, March 13...
 we'll keep you posted 

Just saying.


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## billski (Mar 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> The Canadian model has generally kicked the Euro's ass this winter, so I'd probably go with that were I a betting man.  Here's what it shows for the storm (I didn't bother running the panels before/after these, but you can add another inch or two more snow)
> 
> 
> Add it all up, includind the pre/post flullies etc... and you're probably looking at 8" to 10" for most of ski country.



Have you heard any word on the moisture content up and down the spine?
I'm not if Relative Humidity factors into this.


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## flightschool (Mar 10, 2014)

Accu just put up map.  I think its on the low side for northern ski country.  but loon looking like 12-18!


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## billski (Mar 10, 2014)

flightschool said:


> Accu just put up map.  I think its on the low side for northern ski country.  but loon looking like 12-18!


  Not necessarily.  Those are valley forecasts.


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## wa-loaf (Mar 10, 2014)

Bent wheel folks so limping around on the spare (full size, thanks VW!) until Friday. My counterpart at work is on vacation all week, so I won't be able to get away until the weekend. Enjoy the freshies!


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## billski (Mar 10, 2014)

wa-loaf said:


> Bent wheel folks so limping around on the spare (full size, thanks VW!) until Friday. My counterpart at work is on vacation all week, so I won't be able to get away until the weekend. Enjoy the freshies!


  I'm sure there are other cars in the parking lot with similar size wheel, no?    Bummer man...


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2014)

12z GFS snow map hot off the presses.

Seems a bit snowptimistic if you ask me.


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## billski (Mar 10, 2014)




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## billski (Mar 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> 12z GFS snow map hot off the presses.
> 
> Seems a bit snowptimistic if you ask me.


Another wobbly.  Won't know until it's breathing down our necks.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2014)

billski said:


> *Have you heard any word on the moisture content up and down the spine?*
> I'm not if Relative Humidity factors into this.



It looks plenty wet.  The problem is both the 12z NAM and 12zGFS came in warmer, which is why that map looks like the Cats and Berks get so little snow, it's because it's now predicting rain there.  Not a good trend for s.VT if that R/S line keeps moving north, but I imagine c.VT and n.VT will be fine.  Hopefully the American models are just being total crap as per usual.


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## flightschool (Mar 10, 2014)

I think rayno thinks it will track below the NAM a bit.  Also, they are expecting backend snow for some of the areas that start as rain, but that might not happen.  Better off going north, drive another 2 hours, guarantee good times.


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## moguler6 (Mar 10, 2014)

Josh Fox tweet! 

"20-30 INCHER ON THE WAY !!!"


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## catsup948 (Mar 10, 2014)

It's going to be a mess around here.  Snow/sleet/rain/snow followed by freezing cold and windy Thursday. 

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2014)

Here's the closest (i.e. "worst") the 12z Canadian (much better than the GFS) gets with the R/S line. 

 It only gets better from there as the cold air invades from NW to SE.    But keep in mind, if you're just above that R/S line, you're dancing.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 10, 2014)

Wtf... This thing might cut over ALB if it gets any more amped...


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 10, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Wtf... This thing might cut over ALB if it gets any more amped...



Like I said earlier... 





from_the_NEK said:


> My (totally non-scientific, anti-jinxing, curmudgeon) predictions:...
> 
> Scenario 2: Storm is so strong it becomes a cutter and tracks through Ottawa, dumping 3” of hot rain on New England.
> Probability=40%


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> *Wtf... This thing might cut over ALB if it gets any more amped.*..



Some folks are already lifting the R/S line based on model data (like the exhibit below). 

 I think it's okay though.  With the cold air spilling down, I dont see how the R/S-line could advance any further north.  The Catskills may or may not get screwed, but all north of there should be okay I think.  Just gotta hope it doesnt keep hopping north or s.VT could get rain before snow.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Some folks are already lifting the R/S line based on model data (like the exhibit below).
> 
> I think it's okay though.  With the cold air spilling down, I dont see how the R/S-line could advance any further north.  The Catskills may or may not get screwed, but all north of there should be okay I think.  Just gotta hope it doesnt keep hopping north or s.VT could get rain before snow.



Well the EURO quelled my fears lol. I've been riding the EURO all the way with this storm, so why trust the GFS now.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 10, 2014)

BTW I think Stowe and NVT are still safe... for now. The GFS, the warmest solution still crushes that area and the EURO says that SVT will be blue bombed as well. Southern and Central ski areas walks a fine line with this, but NNE should be fine. A cutter is very unlikely, though if this trend continues, it could happen. Nail-biting finish, but I'd rather have this monster rather than a strung out POS storm that skims south of the area.

EURO is a monster hit for Sunapee/Mt Snow on north. Crotched lies right on the battlefield.


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## JDMRoma (Mar 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Some folks are already lifting the R/S line based on model data (like the exhibit below).
> 
> I think it's okay though.  With the cold air spilling down, I dont see how the R/S-line could advance any further north.  The Catskills may or may not get screwed, but all north of there should be okay I think.  Just gotta hope it doesnt keep hopping north or s.VT could get rain before snow.



Looks like Northern NH finally Gets a good hit…….Im more than ready for it !!


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## 4aprice (Mar 10, 2014)

All I can say is "I'm Free, I'm Free". Race season is over and no more bondage to the Pocono's for the weekends. (though that wasn't bad for Jan and Feb this year).  I will go where the snow goes.

JB says the cold ain't going anywhere for a while.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Well the EURO quelled my fears lol. I've been riding the EURO all the way with this storm, so *why trust the GFS now*.



I never trust the GFS.  It's garbage compared to the Canadian and the Euro.  It's like a new computer from 2014 versus a computer from 2007.  IMO, with the upgrades this year the Canadian is now the best model.  It has outperformed the Euro all winter, and the GFS has been a joke compared to either of them.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2014)

I love it when the first guesses start rolling in.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2014)

*Disclaimer* - this map is not from a professional met, but from a group of college meteorology students.  I just like their site, and besides, MOAR MAPS!!!!!!


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## wa-loaf (Mar 10, 2014)

Tim Kelly is pretty psyched about this one: 





And he's talking about a St Pats day super storm?


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## octopus (Mar 10, 2014)

noaa putting out some pretty nice looking maps on fb.  i got one shot for travel from boston on wed afternoon, where do i go?


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## flightschool (Mar 10, 2014)

octopus said:


> noaa putting out some pretty nice looking maps on fb.  i got one shot for travel from boston on wed afternoon, where do i go?



If i had no pass and had to buy a ticket, I'de pick SR.  It will be empty and its huge there will be perfect snow all day thursday.


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## MadMadWorld (Mar 10, 2014)

wa-loaf said:


> Tim Kelly is pretty psyched about this one:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Can he be anymore obvious about being Jay's paid cheerleader.


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## octopus (Mar 10, 2014)

flight,thats a good call, and sr always has a good base.  magic is always awesome after a dump, but there might not be too much underneath


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 10, 2014)

Whoa


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 10, 2014)

octopus said:


> noaa putting out some pretty nice looking maps on fb.  i got one shot for travel from boston on wed afternoon, where do i go?



You might want to pick somewhere that is less likely to have wind issues too. I'm hoping Burke's summit quad is running with the wind going straight up the lift line. But this thing is still going to be a cutter so what am I even talking about


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## CoolMike (Mar 10, 2014)

I'm pretty pumped right now.  I'm not sure where I'm going but I'll be up in the mountains this weekend for sure!  I've got a day pass at Bretton Woods I have to use but I'm also thinking about hitting Cannon, Sunday River, or Attitash.

Anyone been to Attitash lately?  Do they have a decent base?  I was there after a big storm (~11 inches) a few months ago and while it was lots of fun there was sketchy terrain everywhere.  Grundel floss, shrubs, and exposed rocks littered the trails.  Also, the water bars hadn't been groomed out, which was fun, but tiring because it made you do crazy jumps every 100 yards if you wanted to go fast.


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## MadMadWorld (Mar 10, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> You might want to pick somewhere that is less likely to have wind issues too. I'm hoping Burke's summit quad is running with the wind going straight up the lift line. But this thing is still going to be a cutter so what am I even talking about



Obviously nowhere in the NEK! Mountains with fixed grip chairlifts will be the way to go!


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2014)

I booked for DAX.  They're unlikely to be the jackpot zone, but given everyone north of the MA/VT border or so will likely win, and given the direction the cold air is coming from + timing issues, I decided to take: ice, mixing, rain 100% completely out of the picture.  Gore on Saturday, Whiteface on Sunday for me.


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## billski (Mar 10, 2014)

*you know where you're going...*

Here's the tech discussions, dumbed down so I can understand:

NWS Burlington, VT

[First Part - Wednesday]
SNOW RATIOS BTWN 10 AND 14 TO 1...... SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 10" POSSIBLE ON THE SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE GREEN MTNS FROM KILLINGTON TO STOWE AND EASTERN DACKS.

[Second Part]
THE 2ND PART IMPACTS OUR REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO MOST OF THURSDAY AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOP...OUR SNOW RATIOS ASSOCIATED BTWN 20 AND 30 TO 1. 
COMBINED WITH HIGH FLUFF FACTOR SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 12 INCHES DACKS/NEK/CPV...AND 10 TO 16 INCHES WESTERN SLOPES.


SO ADDING BOTH PARTS TOGETHER RESULTS IN A WIDESPREAD 10 TO 20 INCH EVENT WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS BY
LATE THURSDAY.


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## billski (Mar 10, 2014)

NWS Grey Maine - NH forecast area
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL STAY ALL SNOW IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS... PERHAPS THE BIGGEST SNOWSTORM OF THE
SEASON FOR THESE AREAS.


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## billski (Mar 10, 2014)

NWS Albany
SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...[their words, not mine]

WED/WED NIGHT...
PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST...POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MA.
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS SNOW SOMEWHERE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND INTO SOUTHERN NH...THEN THE RAIN-SNOW
LINE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL NH BEFORE CRASHING
SOUTHWARD WED NIGHT
BASED ON THE CURRENT STORM TRACK MOST
CONFIDENCE OF 6"+ ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NH.

LESS SNOW SOUTHWARD BUT A RISK OF A WINTRY MIX FOR A TIME WED FROM
NORTHERN CT-RI TO THE MASS PIKE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND
SNOW WED NIGHT INTO THU AM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL-
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL EXPECTED ON THE
FRONT END WED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MORE OF A CONCERN. 

WED NIGHT COULD BE SOME CONCERN REGARDING A FLASH FREEZE


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 10, 2014)




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## billski (Mar 10, 2014)

BB, I'll trump that!


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## wa-loaf (Mar 10, 2014)

billski said:


> Here's the tech discussions, dumbed down so I can understand:
> 
> NWS Burlington, VT
> 
> ...



So a few inches of somewhat dense base with a nice layer of blower snow on top? Sounds good to me!


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## lstone84 (Mar 10, 2014)

take your pick === Vtah


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## jrmagic (Mar 10, 2014)

octopus said:


> flight,thats a good call, and sr always has a good base.  magic is always awesome after a dump, but there might not be too much underneath



Magic like most places in NE has plenty of hard base on trail and in the woods. With decent accumulations it will be very good and very empty.


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## billski (Mar 10, 2014)

burkie should be happy!


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## billski (Mar 10, 2014)

jrmagic said:


> Magic like most places in NE has plenty of hard base on trail and in the woods. With decent accumulations it will be very good and very empty.


+1


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## billski (Mar 10, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> Can he be anymore obvious about being Jay's paid cheerleader.


  I don't care if he's pushing poppies or religious tracts.  I can overlook that if snow is in the future.  Hey, everyone's gotta make a buck comrade!


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## flightschool (Mar 10, 2014)

octopus said:


> flight,thats a good call, and sr always has a good base.  magic is always awesome after a dump, but there might not be too much underneath



I'm more concerned about rain than other people here.  I think southern NH and VT could see a decent amount of rain.  I don't know why, call it a feeling, but models look north to me.  No one going to know for sure until Tuesday night.  I just hope the wind isn't that horrible thursday.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2014)

Camelback strikes again!

They're absolutely UNBELIEVABLE with their propaganda.  Yeah, lets brag about a coating to 3 inch forecast and nevermind the fact the storm is forecast to be primarily a drenching rain for the Poconos.   

Again, WORST ski area in the east in terms of propaganda and lying to the consumer.


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## 4aprice (Mar 10, 2014)

CoolMike said:


> Anyone been to Attitash lately?  Do they have a decent base? .



Was at Attitash this past weekend.  I would say they have a decent base.  Hit several tree runs on Bear Peak and there are some bones but nothing too terrible and a decent snow would only make it better.  The temp warmed enough Saturday to make them skiable but dropped again Sunday and they were less enjoyable.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## abc (Mar 10, 2014)

With most of the "big storms" all WAY over-predicted on snow amount, call me a skeptic. 

I have the "benefit" of not being able to take any day off this week but has all of next week at my disposal. So my guess is the amount will be a lot less as in the past. 

I have no insight on the snow/rain line. I only hope it's south of Stowe/Sugarbush, because that's where I'm heading to...


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2014)

Thought I'd run the UKMET for the hell of it. 

 It's like the red-headed stepchild of models and rarely gets a mention, but it shows a big hit too in the below 2 panels. 

Rain/Snow line on the first panel is bizarrely almost a perfect straight line on the VT/MA border.  Rain/Snow line on the second panel is irrelevant, everyone is cold enough by then for all snow.


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## yeggous (Mar 10, 2014)

4aprice said:


> Was at Attitash this past weekend.  I would say they have a decent base.  Hit several tree runs on Bear Peak and there are some bones but nothing too terrible and a decent snow would only make it better.  The temp warmed enough Saturday to make them skiable but dropped again Sunday and they were less enjoyable.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ




The White Mountains on the North Conway side have a great base. A foot of fresh will have them in amazing shape.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


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## flightschool (Mar 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Thought I'd run the UKMET for the hell of it.
> 
> It's like the red-headed stepchild of models and rarely gets a mention, but it shows a big hit too in the below 2 panels.
> 
> Rain/Snow line on the first panel is bizarrely almost a perfect straight line on the VT/MA border.  Rain/Snow line on the second panel is irrelevant, everyone is cold enough by then for all snow.



Any cold support we can get is great, thanks for the post


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## Wavewheeler (Mar 10, 2014)

As much as I'd love to head further north I just can't afford it. So how bad will it be for the Catskills (Hunter). They are saying any rain SHOULD turn to snow and be about 7" in total accumulations. Maybe something will happen for early next week so what's the chance of good skiing midweek (March 19-20) next week? I am bringing my daughter on this trip, who is more of an intermediate skier,  and we actually like to go a few days after a storm so they can groom the trails a bit.

Looks like New England is finally getting the storm they deserve!


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2014)

Wavewheeler said:


> As much as I'd love to head further north I just can't afford it. So* how bad will it be for the Catskills (Hunter). They are saying any rain SHOULD turn to snow and be about 7" in total accumulations*.




Impossible to say.  The northern/warmer trend is not a good sign.  Just 3 days ago the Rain/Snow line was Central Jersey, now it's a few miles into Vermont.  That's not a 25 or 40 mile shift, that's about a 175 mile shift.   

That said, the mountain elevation should help, as should their western proximity since the cold air arrives from the northwest.  So it's probably a timing thing more than anything else.  I cant imagine 7" of wet snow on top of rain will be that bad though.  Maybe a bit crusty?

 But I have to believe that this northern Rain/Snow line shift HAS to stop, because that air coming out of Canada should act like the US Cavalry arriving.  They say never buck the trend, but it wouldnt surprise me if that Rain/Snow line retreats a bit from the Vermont state line in the next few runs.  It will be interesting to watch.


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## billski (Mar 10, 2014)

We've had so many storms over the decade where I-90 in Mass.  was the defacto rain/snow line, that I'm inclined to think that way now.  NWS is looking at the line being at the top of Mass., and as BG says, the uncertainty factor remains high.  If it's like any other storm, we won't know until the fat lady dances. Hoping for a low-moisture precip, I will be at 44.533799, -72.791538


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## lerops (Mar 10, 2014)

This one seems to be really tricky. On Saturday, more precipitation seems to be in the works, but R/S line seems to be further north. Acc to NOAA, Even K would get some rain on Sat, while they do great on Wed/Th. I'd hate this to be a "if you got it fresh on Th/Fr, you are good; otherwise, you're screwed" event.


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## flightschool (Mar 10, 2014)

billski said:


> We've had so many storms over the decade where I-90 in Mass.  was the defacto rain/snow line, that I'm inclined to think that way now.  NWS is looking at the line being at the top of Mass., and as BG says, the uncertainty factor remains high.  If it's like any other storm, we won't know until the fat lady dances. Hoping for a low-moisture precip, I will be at 44.533799, -72.791538



prob the best place to ski this, head to jay after for weekend?


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## billski (Mar 10, 2014)

lerops said:


> . Acc to NOAA, Even K would get some rain on Sat,


  But their narrative was quick to say the mountains would be a much greater accumulation.


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## lerops (Mar 10, 2014)

Thanks, so do you think that the places that luck out with th emid-week storm will be fine over the weekend? That'd be good news to me.


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## Wavewheeler (Mar 10, 2014)

I guess it's a wait and see situation. No way can I ski any sooner than a week after this storm and a lot can happen in a week. If I was looking to catch the fresh powder on Friday and the weekend I'd be planning a trip up to Northern New England. The Dacks may be a good bet too.


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## billski (Mar 10, 2014)

000
FXUS61 KBOX 110107
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

WED/WED NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST...POSSIBLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MA.

...GUIDANCE SUGGEST PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS SNOW SOMEWHERE ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND INTO SOUTHERN NH...THEN THE RAIN-SNOW
LINE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL NH BEFORE CRASHING
SOUTHWARD WED NIGHT

...RAIN-SNOW LIKELY TO CRASH SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. THEN ISSUE BECOMES HOW MUCH [moisture] IS LEFT ONCE COLD AIR ARRIVES. 

..SO LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL ON THE BACKSIDE. BASED ON THE CURRENT STORM TRACK MOST
CONFIDENCE OF 6"+ ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THAT IS A
COMBINATION OF SNOW ON THE FRONT END WED...MIXED PRECIP WED EVENING
THEN BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THUS WINTER
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. 

LESS SNOW SOUTHWARD BUT A RISK OF A WINTRY MIX FOR A TIME WED FROM
NORTHERN CT-RI TO THE MASS PIKE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WRAP AROUND
SNOW WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL-
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL EXPECTED ON THE
FRONT END WED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MORE OF A CONCERN. 

WED NIGHT COULD BE SOME CONCERN REGARDING A FLASH FREEZE


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## flightschool (Mar 10, 2014)

Well, go to northern Vt, white face, or SL.  New NAM run tracked a ways further north again, did not reverse the trend.  I had a feeling it was going to move north because every time my schedule allows me an easy day trip, the close spots end up bulls eye 3 days out and then off center and miss half the snow fall.  It is way too predictable.  F, it, I might just drive to sugarloaf weds night.

Sorry for anyone trying to ski in the southern areas.  This is going to suck big time for you, I think.


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## Quietman (Mar 10, 2014)

What the hell happened to the negative NAOI!?!?!?!?   :evil::evil::evil::evil:

Did it get too negative?


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 10, 2014)

flightschool said:


> Well, go to northern Vt, white face, or SL.  New NAM run tracked a ways further north again, did not reverse the trend.  I had a feeling it was going to move north because every time my schedule allows me an easy day trip, the close spots end up bulls eye 3 days out and then off center and miss half the snow fall.  It is way too predictable.  F, it, I might just drive to sugarloaf weds night.
> 
> Sorry for anyone trying to ski in the southern areas.  This is going to suck big time for you, I think.



We toss the NAM, no questions asked. It also went south too. Are you actually looking at the models or listening to the chatter on the street?

GFS went south too and EURO ticked south midday. The trend is actually going the OTHER way.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 10, 2014)

There is so much that doesn't make sense in the NAM run lol. DC goes from near 70 to 20 in 6 hours, the low cuts to ERIE PA, then slides due east and doesn't strengthen whatsoever, and the thermal gradient is TOTALLY out of whack. roflmao

We toss, that run was some seriously F'ed up stuff. The NAM is higher than Scotty right now.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 10, 2014)

Twenty-four hours from now, I'll look at the NAM.   Though you might want to try some urban-skiing in Toronto if it verifies.


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## flightschool (Mar 10, 2014)

Maybe you're right, maybe NAM is seeing that there is no reason for storm not to just head north.  Euro model has not been flawless this year even when run to run consistent right?  I am hoping euro confirms, it would be candy farting unicorns for me it did.


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## flightschool (Mar 10, 2014)

new euro isn't out yet man, nor GFS?


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Twenty-four hours from now, I'll look at the NAM.   Though you might want to try some urban-skiing in Toronto if it verifies.



Yea the NAM I only good when the storm is bearing down on us. It's mesoscale model so it's good with little nuances within the storm and it's range is within 24 hours. Using it outside of that range and your mind gets bombarded with nonsensical solutions.

I don't think there is enough room for the storm to move any more north. That PV lobe is legit.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 10, 2014)

flightschool said:


> new euro isn't out yet man.



I said midday EURO


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## flightschool (Mar 10, 2014)

If the NAM is useless until 24 hr out, why would a guy as legit as rayno spend 7 minute discussing it 4 day out?  Seem bizarro to me, but i'm new to the game.

I'm going to bed.  Might have to up at 5am thursday  hope you're all right about this not going north, would love to save some money!


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

00Z GEM brings R/S line WAY far north.  Yuck.

00Z GFS is better, R/S line basically pivoted from horizontal to diagonal it seems


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## JDMRoma (Mar 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> 00Z GEM brings R/S line WAY far north.  Yuck.
> 
> 00Z GFS is better, R/S line basically pivoted from horizontal to diagonal it seems



Northern NH still looks good though.........


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## Savemeasammy (Mar 11, 2014)

octopus said:


> flight,thats a good call, and sr always has a good base.  magic is always awesome after a dump, but there might not be too much underneath



This will be an elevation storm.  SR = poor elevation.  


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app


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## flightschool (Mar 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> 00Z GEM brings R/S line WAY far north.  Yuck.
> 
> 00Z GFS is better, R/S line basically pivoted from horizontal to diagonal it seems



who would have thought:wink:


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Mar 11, 2014)

NAM goes WAY south once in range haha.

GFS goes south as well.

EURO stands pat or ticks a little north

I think everything is in falling into place. I've never looked at the GEM and is never plan to use that model.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Mar 11, 2014)

Wow NAM is all snow down to 495. Probably an overcorrection.


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## flightschool (Mar 11, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Wow NAM is all snow down to 495. Probably an overcorrection.



So it corrected south 150 miles this morning?  Or is it just colder all over?


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 11, 2014)

flightschool said:


> So it corrected south 150 miles this morning?  Or is it just colder all over?



Well it looks like it jumped into line the the euro guidance, same with the GFS which jumped south 50 miles. Midday Euro today will tell the story on this storm.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 11, 2014)

NAM snow map


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## flightschool (Mar 11, 2014)

:roll: C'est Possible!!!


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## Puck it (Mar 11, 2014)

Wind is going to be the problem at Cannon.  

Thursday Snow. High near 3. Windy, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 30 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.


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## yeggous (Mar 11, 2014)

Puck it said:


> Wind is going to be the problem at Cannon.
> 
> Thursday Snow. High near 3. Windy, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 30 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.



Sustained wind 30+ mph gusting to 50 with a High temperature of 3. That will be brutal -- if they even open.


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## Bumpsis (Mar 11, 2014)

Forecast for Cannon is predicting 20 some plus inches. I think I'm taking Friday off


----------



## JDMRoma (Mar 11, 2014)

Bumpsis said:


> Forecast for Cannon is predicting 20 some plus inches. I think I'm taking Friday off



I put in for Friday off last Friday when this thread came about  Figured It would be easier to cancel a day off than ask for it on Thursday.......


----------



## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

yeggous said:


> Sustained wind 30+ mph gusting to 50 with a High temperature of 3. That will be brutal -- if they even open.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone mobile app


one word.  woods.


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## Tin (Mar 11, 2014)

Seeing up to 1.5" of rain at BEast before ending as 4-6" of snow. Ouch


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## catsup948 (Mar 11, 2014)

Tin said:


> Seeing up to 1.5" of rain at BEast before ending as 4-6" of snow. Ouch



There has been a cooler trend on the models this morning.  Berkshire East will start as rain but maybe finishes strong overnight.  6 inches would be a good goal. 

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk


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## MadMadWorld (Mar 11, 2014)

Tin said:


> Seeing up to 1.5" of rain at BEast before ending as 4-6" of snow. Ouch



Well if there is a silver lining it's that the snow will come after the rain.


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## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

NWS Burl  (for North, Central VT and ADK)
AS OF 458 AM EDT TUESDAY...
 SNOW WILL
BEGIN FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES LATE IN THE DAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN VERMONT COULD SEE A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOWFALL THE STORM SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES...WITH
SOME AREAS FALLING BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
...

LATEST MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION A FEW HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ONCE IT STARTS IT WILL COME ON QUICKLY.
...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW
FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8PM THURSDAY
...


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## St. Bear (Mar 11, 2014)

billski said:


> one word.  woods.



I would have gone with "skins".


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## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

St. Bear said:


> I would have gone with "skins".


  Works for me.  Northern VT. has had 4-7" of snow in the last 48 hours.  One more word.  Whopper.  
 
Life must stop.  As someone said a month ago, my productivity is inversely proportional to the snowfall


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## billski (Mar 11, 2014)




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## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

Mount Washington Observatory
10am Tuesday

A major storm system will affect New England  tomorrow through Thursday, as low pressure cuts through the mid-Atlantic  and heads northeastward along the coast. Significant snowfall  accumulations are looking more and more likely for northern New England,  including the White Mountain Region, which could see as much as  one-and-a-half to two feet of snow by Thursday morning!


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## wa-loaf (Mar 11, 2014)

billski said:


> View attachment 11694



I hope this drops a little further south still.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

wa-loaf said:


> I hope this drops a little further south still.



Agreed.  There are some troubling signs afoot with the NAM and southern area icing/mixing/rain etc....   

<----- Keenly awaiting 12z guidance from Euro and Canadian


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## lerops (Mar 11, 2014)

Just got back from 4 days at Smuggs, this is killing me. :evil:

If it shifts south, I can hopefully catch some of it.

To add insult to injury, I am traveling for work tomorrow, and was hoping the city would get some snow cancelling flights so I wouldn't have to go. Oh well.


----------



## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

lerops said:


> Just got back from 4 days at Smuggs, this is killing me. :evil:
> 
> If it shifts south, I can hopefully catch some of it.


  Smuggs has a great setup.  In the middle of the dump and slow fixed grip lifts.  Sorry to rub it in...


----------



## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Agreed.  There are some troubling signs afoot with the NAM and southern area icing/mixing/rain etc....
> 
> <----- Keenly awaiting 12z guidance from Euro and Canadian



*US National Weather Service Boston MA*

A Winter Storm will bring more rain than snow to most of Southern New  England Wednesday into Early Thursday.  However, rain will change to at  least a brief period of snow in most areas late Wednesday night as  temperatures plummet.  This may result in a flash freeze for the  Thursday AM rush hour.

I don't think we'll know for sure until the cards are dealt and played.


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## catsup948 (Mar 11, 2014)

There is a bit of a south and cooler trend this morning.  It would be nice to see the r/s line fall back to the mass/vt/nh border. 

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk


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## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

View attachment 11696


----------



## catsup948 (Mar 11, 2014)

But yeah await the euro.  It's driving the ship on this one so it seems.  It probably won't win though..

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk


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## C-Rex (Mar 11, 2014)

I was looking at going to Magic Thursday, but now I'm not sure if it's far enough north...  Maybe Sugarbush or Jay instead?


----------



## wa-loaf (Mar 11, 2014)

C-Rex said:


> I was looking at going to Magic Thursday, but now I'm not sure if it's far enough north...  Maybe Sugarbush or Jay instead?



If you want to ensure all snow, go north!


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## Euler (Mar 11, 2014)

C-Rex said:


> I was looking at going to Magic Thursday, but now I'm not sure if it's far enough north...  Maybe Sugarbush or Jay instead?



Definitely head further north than magic.  Sadly.


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## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

NWS Grey Maine's take:

View attachment 11697


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## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

C-Rex said:


> I was looking at going to Magic Thursday, but now I'm not sure if it's far enough north...  Maybe Sugarbush or Jay instead?


 or MRG or Bolton, or Bush or $teaux or Burke.  Or Bretton or anywhere in the Mt. Wash Valley or Maine or Whiteface, etc.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

Finally had a look at the 00z Canadian, and it has the warm air aloft trending even farther north than the NAM (see below 18 hours worth of panels covering the storm).

  This is definitely not a good sign for those s.VT areas.


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## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

catsup948 said:


> But yeah await the euro.  It's driving the ship on this one so it seems.  It probably won't win though..
> 
> Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk


  What time does that come out?


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## SnowRock (Mar 11, 2014)

I had two brutal weeks at work... so was already pumped for this week with the start of the big east tournament and my trip to stowe.  Now its nonstop weather pron and my productivity is sinking by the minute.


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## JDMRoma (Mar 11, 2014)

That looks good.....Ill be at Cannon on Friday for sure.......Back up plan is BW !


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## Bostonian (Mar 11, 2014)

I am holding out hope that Magic gets the goods as I want to be able to hit there on Saturday...   Hopefully that R*in/Snow line moves further south a bit


----------



## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

Bostonian said:


> I am holding out hope that Magic gets the goods as I want to be able to hit there on Saturday...   Hopefully that R*in/Snow line moves further south a bit



This is probably going to play out like the one that hit new england with rain everywhere.   It will dump wet snow, then freeze up, requiring good grooming again.  All that said, Magic is going to have helluva great spring skiing.


----------



## wa-loaf (Mar 11, 2014)




----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

wa-loaf said:


> *If you want to ensure all snow, go north!*



Yup.  My chips were already on the table based on model runs yesterday with Gore and Whiteface.  I decided to go north (better) and west (better) to take rain, ice, mix out of the equation.  I might not hit the homerun jackpot zone, but I'll increase my odds of scoring.  Think of it like a sacrifice bunt in baseball.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

FWIW, the 12Z GFS just came in a bit colder and further south, which is great news, except for the fact it's the GFS.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 11, 2014)

Canadian looks pretty good.

Awaiting the euro


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 11, 2014)

More from the Canuck. R/S line is close, but doesn't get there fortunately


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## flightschool (Mar 11, 2014)

catsup948 said:


> There is a bit of a south and cooler trend this morning.  It would be nice to see the r/s line fall back to the mass/vt/nh border.
> 
> Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk



Think that has gone back the other way.  Rayno is on the north trend, significant mixing all the way up to albany and across into vt/nh.  Sorry guys.

Also, Boston feels like 50 degrees right now and the sun isn't out and I think it could get warmer if that changes....  That is not a good sign!.


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## ScottySkis (Mar 11, 2014)

All snow for Stowe then i think that were i go this weeke.d.


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> More from the Canuck. R/S line is close, but doesn't get there fortunately



Here's R/S line on the high resolution Canuck for the beginning of the storm.  This is only 24 hours out so it's before the heavy precip arrives, but at least it gives an idea before the start.


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## St. Bear (Mar 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Think of it like a sacrifice bunt in baseball.



Forgive me, I'm a bit of a baseball nerd, but you had me until this.  Bunting is the worst thing you can intentionally do in baseball.


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## Smellytele (Mar 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Here's R/S line on the high resolution Canuck for the beginning of the storm.  This is only 24 hours out so it's before the heavy precip arrives, but at least it gives an idea before the start.



Finally a map I can actually see the states on


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## skifree (Mar 11, 2014)

you guys kill me. I'm not sure if I work thurs/drive up wed night/wait till Friday...get drunk and hang curtains.

wtf!


----------



## Smellytele (Mar 11, 2014)

St. Bear said:


> Forgive me, I'm a bit of a baseball nerd, but you had me until this.  Bunting is the worst thing you can intentionally do in baseball.



I actually like bunting. Squeeze plays are awesome. Yes I am a baseball geek as well.


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## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

What we cannot forget is that this line will will move back and forth, creating for mushy snow.


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## flightschool (Mar 11, 2014)

skifree said:


> you guys kill me. I'm not sure if I work thurs/drive up wed night/wait till Friday...get drunk and hang curtains.
> 
> wtf!



I'm in the same boat... leave weds night to loaf, leave thurs morning to Loon, sit it out until friday and enjoy that cool, calm sunny day.  We got Options!


----------



## WJenness (Mar 11, 2014)

St. Bear said:


> Forgive me, I'm a bit of a baseball nerd, but you had me until this.  Bunting is the worst thing you can intentionally do in baseball.


95 times out of 100, yes...

But like every rule, it has exceptions.

I.e. Tied, Bottom of the 9th, runner on third, 0 or 1 out with a guy who basically only ever strikes out at the plate...

But then again, that's why I don't watch NL ball.

*ducks*


----------



## Puck it (Mar 11, 2014)

Smellytele said:


> I actually like bunting. Squeeze plays are awesome. Yes I am a baseball geek as well.



The bunt in fast pitch softball is always great.  I used to do it all time back when I was playing the Maple City League in the Burg.  Place right between the pithcer and first base charging and second base covering first.  Bang.  A bunt for a double.


Or the fake bunt, with the hands just choked up and swing away in a bunt stance.  I have used that one too.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

St. Bear said:


> Forgive me,* I'm a bit of a baseball nerd, but you had me until this.  Bunting is the worst thing you can intentionally do in baseball.*



I find it hard to believe a baseball nerd would say such a thing.  The sacrifice bunt is a thing of beauty, and (at least IMO) bunting is becoming a lost art in the age of "home runs earn me millions".


----------



## St. Bear (Mar 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> I find it hard to believe a baseball nerd would say such a thing.  The sacrifice bunt is a thing of beauty, and (at least IMO) bunting is becoming a lost art in the age of "home runs earn me millions".



Careful, you're confusing nerd with nostalgist.

Outs are the most important thing in baseball.  You only get 27 of them per game.  Why would you want to waste 1 of them on something that succeeds 50% of the time (if you're good at it)?


----------



## nanjil (Mar 11, 2014)

great it looks like the 3 S's (SR, SL, SB) + mt abrahm in maine is going to be walloped! should extend the season to may!


----------



## billski (Mar 11, 2014)




----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

MOAR MAPS!!!!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

GFS Porno map is out - maxes at 20".  Gotta figure a bit higher than 10:1 though, so probably more like 26".


----------



## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> GFS Porno map is out - maxes at 20".  Gotta figure a bit higher than 10:1 though, so probably more like 26".


  Not counting mountain magic which always contributes to the total!!!


----------



## from_the_NEK (Mar 11, 2014)

MOAR! MOAR!  Eye on the Sky (AKA Fairbanks Museum).


----------



## wa-loaf (Mar 11, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> MOAR! MOAR!  Eye on the Sky (AKA Fairbanks Museum).




Isn't Burke in that little 8" band near St Johnsbury ...


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## from_the_NEK (Mar 11, 2014)

Fortunately no . It is right on the edge of that 15-20" blob above the 8" label.


----------



## Smellytele (Mar 11, 2014)

plus





and


----------



## Smellytele (Mar 11, 2014)

Also


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## wa-loaf (Mar 11, 2014)

Damn, I sure wish I could be at Sugarloaf on Thursday.


----------



## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

NWS numbers have adjusted.  Hell, 12" will ski as good as 24" around these parts.

BTW, who is MOAR?


----------



## Smellytele (Mar 11, 2014)

wa-loaf said:


> Damn, I sure wish I could be at Sugarloaf on Thursday.



Saddleback Thursday, Sugarloaf Friday, Saddleback Saturday for me. - If we make it alive.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

Euro snow map should be out in an hour or so.  Cant wait to see that.


----------



## flightschool (Mar 11, 2014)

How did the euro change?  stronger, north, colder?


----------



## from_the_NEK (Mar 11, 2014)

flightschool said:


> How did the euro change?  stronger, north, colder?


Still 40+ minutes out. The time stamps on posts here are still having issues with Daylight Savings Time.


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## j law (Mar 11, 2014)

Coming from NYC, this is going to be a tough decision on where to go for a day trip on thursday...

I'm  trying to decide between Gore and Magic b/c I think the tree's will be  great at both.  Gore is a bit further north... might make the call when I  leave at 3am thursday.

Please keep feeding me maps b/c it's way more interesting than my TPS reports!!!


----------



## wa-loaf (Mar 11, 2014)

Smellytele said:


> Saddleback Thursday, Sugarloaf Friday, Saddleback Saturday for me. - If we make it alive.



Nice, post pics!


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Mar 11, 2014)

Euro stands pat. Helluva gradient, Manchester get nothing, Concord is on the line, Laconia gets crushed.


----------



## Tin (Mar 11, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Euro stands pat. Helluva gradient, Manchester get nothing, Concord is on the line, Laconia gets crushed.



Pics or it didn't happen.


----------



## 4aprice (Mar 11, 2014)

Reading this thread reminds me of listening to the 1969 World Series on a transistor radio in grade school.  On pins and needles, tuning out only to tune back in 10 minutes later.  :lol:  Let's go snow.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

j law said:


> Coming from NYC, this is going to be a* tough decision on where to go for a day trip on thursday...*
> *
> I'm  trying to decide between Gore and Magic *b/c I think the tree's will be  great at both.



Based on the weather forecast Gore will get more snow, though it's not a slam dunk you'll be skiing at either one of them on Thursday.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Mar 11, 2014)

St. Bear said:


> Forgive me, I'm a bit of a baseball nerd, but you had me until this.  Bunting is the worst thing you can intentionally do in baseball.



I'd have to agree but I also find that watching somebody "steal" second base with a runner on third is ridiculous. They don't even bother trying to throw down.


----------



## 2knees (Mar 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Based on the weather forecast Gore will get more snow, though it's not a slam dunk you'll be skiing at either one of them on Thursday.




Are you making reference to the wind?  I am going to sugarbush thursday and friday with a friend who doesn't ski much.  I am trying to prepare him for the fact that thursday is gonna be bonkers cold and windy and that he may not actually enjoy it and that he may not have too many lifts to choose from.....


----------



## j law (Mar 11, 2014)

I think he's worried about the rain/snow line as well as the wind.  I see 50mph gusts


----------



## Tin (Mar 11, 2014)

Given all the issues Sugarbush has had with their lifts this year it would be quite the gamble for Thursday and Friday. Especially with 30+ mph winds and windchill values between -30 and -35 at mid mountain. Bush and Smuggs were our original choices but these factors (and a friend out of town) made us rethink it.


----------



## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

On an somewhat related matter, Me thinks the absolute snow rain line will be around Sunapee NH running on a 45 degree angle from there.


----------



## 2knees (Mar 11, 2014)

j law said:


> I think he's worried about the rain/snow line as well as the wind.  I see 50mph gusts



based on his response to the quoted post being there is no guarantee you will be skiing either, i would think that is just in relation to wind.  Anywhere in s. vt that gets rain is gonna flip back to snow for a while, the rain snow line won't keep an area closed.  Gale force winds all day thursday are another story.


----------



## JDMRoma (Mar 11, 2014)

Looks like the winds drop right down after Thursday, Friday and Saturday look fine….other than it being warm on Sat


----------



## 2knees (Mar 11, 2014)

Tin said:


> Given all the issues Sugarbush has had with their lifts this year it would be quite the gamble for Thursday and Friday. Especially with 30+ mph winds and windchill values between -30 and -35 at mid mountain. Bush and Smuggs were our original choices but these factors (and a friend out of town) made us rethink it.



If the lifts at the bush aren't running I can go to MRG, Stowe, Middlebury hell even killington is only an hour south.  There are plenty of options....but one thing you can almost guarantee is that Magic will be running their lift.  Although, if the red is down, i'm not sure how well the black handles wind.  The red could run in a hurricane...


----------



## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

Tin said:


> Given all the issues Sugarbush has had with their lifts this year it would be quite the gamble for Thursday and Friday. Especially with 30+ mph winds and windchill values between -30 and -35 at mid mountain. Bush and Smuggs were our original choices but these factors (and a friend out of town) made us rethink it.



I'll bet MRG will be wicked awesome.  Fixed grip, slow single, place to yourself.  Oooooh....


----------



## j law (Mar 11, 2014)

So who has the most "reliable" lifts in the wind?  thoughts?

Gore has a fixed grip up top... and lower down as well if it's too windy.

Magic is always a crapshoot with lifts... Jay too.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Mar 11, 2014)

Burke is usually pretty reliable. If it is too windy to run the Mid Burke HSQ, hopefully they can run the Willoughby (FGQ) instead. And then there is the Poma (surface lift), but it only goes 3/4's of the way up.


----------



## St. Bear (Mar 11, 2014)

billski said:


> I'll bet MRG will be wicked awesome.  Fixed grip, slow single, *place to yourself*.  Oooooh....



Yeah, not like there's a strong local presence there.  Strong enough to support a co-op, for instance.


----------



## jrmagic (Mar 11, 2014)

2knees said:


> If the lifts at the bush aren't running I can go to MRG, Stowe, Middlebury hell even killington is only an hour south.  There are plenty of options....but one thing you can almost guarantee is that Magic will be running their lift.  Although, if the red is down, i'm not sure how well the black handles wind.  The red could run in a hurricane...



Black does pretty well also though definitely more exposes than red. Red is running fine though so it should be no problem other than nasty and cold


----------



## 2knees (Mar 11, 2014)

jrmagic said:


> Black does pretty well also though definitely more exposes than red. Red is running fine though so it should be no problem other than nasty and cold



I can't remember the last time i rode the black.  maybe in high school.  For some reason i thought the red was down for the year but i'm very happy to be mistaken.  Might be the choice for thursday if I can muster the balls to go out in that weather.  Higher summit forecast for vermont has highs on thursday in the negative single digits with wind chills of more than 30 below.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

2knees said:


> Are you making reference to the wind?



Yes.  As modeled, it could be dicey.  

Gusts maps.

*GFS*







*NAM*




*Canuck*


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

*18Z NAM Snowfall map*

Keep in mind the NAM often overdoes the snowfall totals.  It has a max here of 29".


----------



## jrmagic (Mar 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yes.  As modeled, it could be dicey.
> 
> Gusts maps.
> 
> ...



Holy offshore gusts batman! That's km/h I assume so gusts in the 50s would equate to mid 30s in mph. While not fun that shouldn't pose a problem for red. For people on the other hand Brrrrrr!


----------



## MadMadWorld (Mar 11, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> Burke is usually pretty reliable. If it is too windy to run the Mid Burke HSQ, hopefully they can run the Willoughby (FGQ) instead. And then there is the Poma (surface lift), but it only goes 3/4's of the way up.



Now a Poma....that's the safest bet!


----------



## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

St. Bear said:


> Yeah, not like there's a strong local presence there.  Strong enough to support a co-op, for instance.


actually, most of the shareholders are "from away"


----------



## JDMRoma (Mar 11, 2014)

j law said:


> So who has the most "reliable" lifts in the wind?  thoughts?



Im skiing Cannon on Friday…..if there is any Wind issues I can be at BrettonWoods in 20 minutes and have plenty of fun in the glades all day !


----------



## j law (Mar 11, 2014)

Anyone have thoughts about which aspects of ski areas will get the most snow given the direction of this storm?  I just read on Opensnow.com to avoid resorts with lifts that are exposed to the NW.

This is a really good way to spend my day... looking at different ski areas on googlemaps.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Mar 11, 2014)

billski said:


> I'll bet MRG will be wicked awesome.  Fixed grip, slow single, place to yourself.  Oooooh....



MRG on a powder day? Ha! It's much busier than you think especially first thing in the AM. The single goes on wind hold more than most people would think. Some mountains like MRG and Smuggs will always have wind holds regardless of lift.


----------



## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> MRG on a powder day? Ha! It's much busier than you think


  Sorry, been there done that.  Not so bad IMO.


----------



## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

j law said:


> Anyone have thoughts about which aspects of ski areas will get the most snow given the direction of this storm?  I just read on Opensnow.com to avoid resorts with lifts that are exposed to the NW.
> 
> This is a really good way to spend my day... looking at different ski areas on googlemaps.


That's easy for a westerner to say.  Most of the NE areas were build N-NW to preserve the snow.  What's more important is what direction the lift faces.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Mar 11, 2014)

Actually lifts that run parallel with the NW winds can stay open more consistently (e.g. Burke's summit quads, Wildcat's HSQ). Lifts that run at an angle to the NW wind (Jay Peak's Green Mtn Flyer) are more susceptible to closure due to the chairs swinging sideways.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Mar 11, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> Actually lifts that run parallel with the NW winds can stay open more consistently (e.g. Burke's summit quads, Wildcat's HSQ). Lifts that run at an angle to the NW wind (Jay Peak's Green Mtn Flyer) are more susceptible to closure due to the chairs swinging sideways.



Good points. The wind is brutal at Wildcat but it blows straight up the mountain for the most part. The GM Freezer definitely swings a lot!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

Anyone see the Euro snowfall map?  Those Euro maps are getting harder to find post that dumbazz WeatherBoy Weather fraud.


----------



## lstone84 (Mar 11, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> Actually lifts that run parallel with the NW winds can stay open more consistently (e.g. Burke's summit quads, Wildcat's HSQ). Lifts that run at an angle to the NW wind (Jay Peak's Green Mtn Flyer) are more susceptible to closure due to the chairs swinging sideways.



'Wind speeds will be strong but out of the north and northwest Thursday, a friendly direction for the MRG lifts.'

This is from the Single Chair Weather Blog, and MRG's single runs NE to SW, which is perpendicular...

What's the correct answer...


----------



## Tin (Mar 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Anyone see the Euro snowfall map?  Those Euro maps are getting harder to find post that dumbazz WeatherBoy Weather fraud.



I dont know shit about the maps but this was on FB and says Euro...


----------



## billski (Mar 11, 2014)

Tin said:


> I dont know shit about the maps but this was on FB and says Euro...
> 
> View attachment 11728



I can't remember when I've seen so many colors on one map - it's a beauty.  So that's accumulation from about 7am today and lasting 60 hours (do the math).  It's pretty much the picture everyone has climbed on board with.
Some of those Quebecois western provinces should make out well too.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

Tin said:


> I dont know shit about the maps but this was on FB and says Euro...
> 
> View attachment 11728



Yeah, that's a newer version of it.  Tougher on the eyes but more detailed.  Thanks.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

MOAR MAPS!!!!!!!


----------



## lstone84 (Mar 11, 2014)

Anybody on here have considerable experience w/ wind holds in NVT w/ storms like this w/ winds out of N/NW?

Smuggs, Jay? Something else...


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## skifree (Mar 11, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> Anybody on here have considerable experience w/ wind holds in NVT w/ storms like this w/ winds out of N/NW?
> 
> Smuggs, Jay? Something else...
> 
> ...


Sometimes you just have to go for it.


----------



## lstone84 (Mar 11, 2014)

I def will go for it, but getting some advice from someone w experience in a forum about this kind of stuff wouldn't hurt..


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## flightschool (Mar 11, 2014)

well looks like way north now which is what I thought last night and it was so warm today I figured it would move even further north...Oh well.


----------



## Sick Bird Rider (Mar 11, 2014)

billski said:


> ...
> Some of those Quebecois western provinces should make out well too.



Excuse me, what?

I am guessing that you are referring to what is commonly known as the Eastern Townships, located in the beautiful province of Quebec, home to such fine ski areas as Sutton, Owl's Head, Orford and Le Massif de Sud. If you need further lessons in Canadian geography, I would be happy to oblige.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

STILL MOARZ!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Mar 11, 2014)

flightschool said:


> well looks like way north now which is what I thought last night and it was so warm today I figured it would move even further north...Oh well.



The antecedent heat won't have an impact on where the r/s line will be. It's all about the cold air seeping from the north. Today's warmth has little to do with the storm.

It's not way north. Anything from magic on north will pick up a foot plus. That's southern VT.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Mar 11, 2014)

Go get it guys! I'll be skiing the scraps over the weekend.

Pics would be awesome!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Go get it guys! I'll be skiing the scraps over the weekend.
> 
> Pics would be awesome!



It wont be that bad.  Realistically Saturday will be day 2, not day 3, because 90% of the people who claim they're going skiing on Thursday will not actually be doing so.


----------



## lstone84 (Mar 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> It wont be that bad.  Realistically Saturday will be day 2, not day 3, because 90% of the people who claim they're going skiing on Thursday will not actually be doing so.



god i hope you're right. on the V-day storm at Smuggs, typically empty, had 40+ minute waits at the lifts


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> god i hope you're right. on the V-day storm at Smuggs, typically empty, had 40+ minute waits at the lifts



Saint Valentines Day is the heart of ski season, kids are starting to play baseball etc....  I dont think lines will be that bad.  On Saturday, lines at Smuggs were 13 - 16 minutes long at Madonna.


----------



## lstone84 (Mar 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Saint Valentines Day is the heart of ski season, kids are starting to play baseball etc....  I dont think lines will be that bad.  On Saturday, lines at Smuggs were 13 - 16 minutes long at Madonna.



hmm that was day after a powder day right? the school vaca, cancelled school, and friday might've been the issue..thursday should be better


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 11, 2014)




----------



## Wavewheeler (Mar 12, 2014)

So, is the Catskills a lost cause or what?


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 12, 2014)

Wavewheeler said:


> So, is the Catskills a lost cause or what?



More or less. Any significant snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic ski areas is pretty much icing on the cake at this point in the season though, so I'm not too disappointed.


----------



## Wavewheeler (Mar 12, 2014)

I was planning to take my daughter to Hunter next week. Now I'm wondering if it will be worth it or not.


----------



## lstone84 (Mar 12, 2014)

It's been a long time since I've seen those numbers forecasted for valley elevations in those areas. If that holds true the mountains will see 30"


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## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2014)




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## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2014)

Wavewheeler said:


> So, is the Catskills a lost cause or what?



You never know.

There is an ice and rain threat there for sure, but remember, a fairly insignificant 20 or 30 mile shift south last minute could spare them the brunt of the worst.  The models are hardly perfect, that's why they call them "guidance" - fingers crossed for the Cats!


----------



## cbackman (Mar 12, 2014)

snowforecast.com is showing that most places in vermont will get 36-48 inches through tomorrow haha


----------



## j law (Mar 12, 2014)

cbackman said:


> snowforecast.com is showing that most places in vermont will get 36-48 inches through tomorrow haha



I saw that... Hard to believe that could come to fruition but we can always hope!



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## from_the_NEK (Mar 12, 2014)

cbackman said:


> snowforecast.com is showing that most places in vermont will get 36-48 inches through tomorrow haha



If that happens I'm not going into work at noon tomorrow.


----------



## billski (Mar 12, 2014)

Burke will get puked on.  Good for them.  Bury the Q too!


----------



## billski (Mar 12, 2014)

billski said:


> Burke will get puked on.  Good for them.  Bury the Q too!


actually that might be a great target for a windhold day....


----------



## billski (Mar 12, 2014)

cbackman said:


> snowforecast.com is showing that most places in vermont will get 36-48 inches through tomorrow haha


I've lost faith in snowforecast.com.  Even though they are in Europe, I'm more aligned with snow-forecast.com's work.


----------



## Tin (Mar 12, 2014)

snow*-*forecast.com has been crazy accurate this year. The - all makes the difference.


----------



## moguler6 (Mar 12, 2014)

billski said:


> I've lost faith in snowforecast.com.  Even though they are in Europe, I'm more aligned with snow-forecast.com's work.



Since Winn left snowforecast.com is worthless for the northeast.  I also use snow-forecast.com now.  Really like their altitude/temp graph and how each day is broken into 3 time periods.


----------



## billski (Mar 12, 2014)

Look at this.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

It's an animated gif, so go to the site to see it.  I need a change of clothes now.  Yikes, I may never come home!


----------



## dmw (Mar 12, 2014)

Any idea on the latest R/S line, new models, etc? I have vouchers for both Crotched and Ragged I could use tomorrow, Crotch is only good tomorrow but wondering if the extra bit north might be worth it.


----------



## billski (Mar 12, 2014)

I just charted out my travel plans this afternoon.  I'm expecting sleet/freezing rain up rte 89 from Concord NH to Lebanon NH.  Take that info, then go look at the snow gradient maps and extrapolate from there.


----------



## billski (Mar 12, 2014)

Continuing my last thought this map should work for you:


That deep blue line is probably  it.  Everybody below it gets some mixing.  Ragged will get less mixing than Crotch.


----------



## wa-loaf (Mar 12, 2014)

billski said:


> Continuing my last thought this map should work for you:
> 
> View attachment 11737
> That deep blue line is probably  it.  Everybody below it gets some mixing.  Ragged will get less mixing than Crotch.



Looking good for Magic. Saturday is going to be sweet even if the fresh is skied out by then.


----------



## billski (Mar 12, 2014)

THIS.  now shut up and go pack your bag!

[h=5]US National Weather Service Boston MA
[/h]Water  Vapor satellite imagery at 12z/8am shows 3 packets of Jet Stream energy  (over GA, IN & WI) that will form a powerful storm over the  Northeast tonight into Thu!


----------



## Tin (Mar 12, 2014)

dmw said:


> Any idea on the latest R/S line, new models, etc? I have vouchers for both Crotched and Ragged I could use tomorrow, Crotch is only good tomorrow but wondering if the extra bit north might be worth it.




Crotched skied terrific on Sunday. Even with an inch of rain it will end as 6-8" of snow. There was a 4-6" base in the trees (if that's your thing) that I don't think I jackhammer couldn't get through so they still might be in play come Thursday.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2014)

dmw said:


> Any idea on the latest R/S line, new models, etc? I have vouchers for both Crotched and Ragged I could use tomorrow, Crotch is only good tomorrow but wondering if the extra bit north might be worth it.



It's nowcasting time.  You can look at live radar and get an idea.  Right now it's in s.NH, just into VT, a bit above Albany, etc....


----------



## billski (Mar 12, 2014)

[h=5]US National Weather Service Boston MA
[/h]Water  Vapor satellite imagery at 12z/8am shows 3 packets of Jet Stream energy  (over GA, IN & WI) that will form a powerful storm over the  Northeast tonight into Thu!
[h=5]US National Weather Service Gray ME

[/h]9:00am
Here  is our latest snowfall forecast for today through Thursday. Still a  very tricky situation for portions of southern NH and the coastal plain  of ME where mixed precipitation will be prevalent. At the immediate  coast, mostly rain is expected today before cold air rapidly moves in  tonight allowing for freezing rain...sleet...and snow combined with wind  gusts over 35 mph at times. Stay tuned for forecast updates as the day  progresses...this is a changeable situation. Up in the mountains...snow  is expected...and loads of it.


----------



## billski (Mar 12, 2014)

Nws burlington
as of 1028 am edt wednesday...forecast playing out well so far.
 Snow has
overspread the majority of the area with the exception of far
northern vermont and the saint lawrence valley of new york.
Anywhere that`s not currently snowing will be shortly. Heaviest
snow still on track for late this afternoon...this evening...and
overnight ..with bulls-eye over central vermont.


----------



## octopus (Mar 12, 2014)

could someone please put the mtns on the latest weather map?


----------



## from_the_NEK (Mar 12, 2014)

Here is Northern VTs snowfall predictions with ski areas...


----------



## octopus (Mar 12, 2014)

thx!  you mind doing the rest of them, vt, nh, me?

i only ask because i can't get the ski resort map to work on here anymore


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 12, 2014)

GFS is now up to 8-12 for the Catskills. All is not yet lost! 

http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif


----------



## Tin (Mar 12, 2014)

Rowsdower said:


> GFS is now up to 8-12 for the Catskills. All is not yet lost!
> 
> http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif




Definitely a more southern track and crazy coloring, 10 miles could be 2" or 10".


----------



## Puck it (Mar 12, 2014)




----------



## from_the_NEK (Mar 12, 2014)

^Thanks  making a map of the northern end of VT is one thing but overlaying all the resorts in all the NE states is another.


----------



## Puck it (Mar 12, 2014)




----------



## Tin (Mar 12, 2014)

I'm willing to bet Crotch gets double what that map says.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Mar 12, 2014)

Puck it said:


> View attachment 11738



Never been that Mount Washington ski resort.....any good?


----------



## Puck it (Mar 12, 2014)




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## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2014)

Rain/Snow line is moving south.   The "Cold Air Calvary" is riding in!


----------



## Puck it (Mar 12, 2014)

MadMadWorld said:


> Never been that Mount Washington ski resort.....any good?



You should try it


----------



## Glenn (Mar 12, 2014)

Things are looking up for the southern Greens:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/WSW.htm


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## Rowsdower (Mar 12, 2014)

My productivity is at about zero right now. Instead of doing work I'm making contingency plans in order to ride Friday.


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## j law (Mar 12, 2014)

I have not got any work done this week and I'm definitely not working tomorrow


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----------



## wa-loaf (Mar 12, 2014)

I think we can remove the (Don't Crucify Me) from this thread now.


----------



## moguler6 (Mar 12, 2014)

wa-loaf said:


> I think we can remove the (Don't Crucify Me) from this thread now.



Maybe it was the crucifixion that worked?  Who's next?


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 12, 2014)

moguler6 said:


> Maybe it was the crucifixion that worked?  Who's next?



Ullr demands a sacrifice.


----------



## billski (Mar 12, 2014)

Rowsdower said:


> Ullr demands a sacrifice.


highwaystar?


----------



## Tin (Mar 12, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Rain/Snow line is moving south.   The "Cold Air Calvary" is riding in!




Will those 18-24" totals move south as well? The heaviest precip looks to be heading south of Rutland.


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## Boston Bulldog (Mar 12, 2014)

Sunapee on north looks good right now, r/s line got close, but it's halted for now.

The cold front was faster than modeled.


----------



## MadMadWorld (Mar 12, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Sunapee on north looks good right now, r/s line got close, but it's halted for now.
> 
> The cold front was faster than modeled.



That's fantastic news


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2014)

billski said:


> highwaystar?



Do you think Ullr is a mighty enough god to catch him?



Tin said:


> Will those 18-24" totals move south as well? The heaviest precip looks to be heading south of Rutland.



I doubt it.  Doesnt seem the R/S line is crashing aggressively enough.


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## Rowsdower (Mar 12, 2014)

Aaaannnnd the r/s line just got pushed 50 miles north again. 

Catskills went from 8-12 to 2-4. This is killing me! 

http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_48HR.gif


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2014)

Rowsdower said:


> Aaaannnnd the r/s line just got pushed 50 miles north again.
> 
> Catskills went from 8-12 to 2-4. This is killing me!
> 
> http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_48HR.gif



It was never south to begin with.  It's dropping south, but it hasnt been all the way down there. At least it doesnt depict that way on radar.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 12, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> It was never south to begin with.  It's dropping south, but it hasnt been all the way down there. At least it doesnt depict that way on radar.



Then they pushed the timing of the cold front back some. The snow totals just took a massive hit from south/central Vermont on down.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Mar 12, 2014)

Rowsdower said:


> Then they pushed the timing of the cold front back some. The snow totals just took a massive hit from south/central Vermont on down.



Don't look at the models now, We're in nowcast mode. Radar trends are more important than model runs at this point.


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## billski (Mar 12, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Don't look at the models now, We're in nowcast mode. Radar trends are more important than model runs at this point.


+2

use these
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html

http://radar.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xradara5_anim.gif

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/northeast.gif


http://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_ecan_1070_100.jpg



http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nx_mosaic_400x300c/SIR/inmaSIRNH_.gif

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/nerad1km_an.gif

http://images.worldnow.com/images/myweather/maps/sector/us-vt/radar/d505x380/loop.gif


or just go to my personal page.
http://www.iabsi.com/public/ski/

cool ones here
http://madriverglen.com/skiing/weather


----------



## hammer (Mar 12, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Don't look at the models now, We're in nowcast mode. Radar trends are more important than model runs at this point.


Tough part about the radars is knowing exactly where the rain/snow line is.


----------



## billski (Mar 12, 2014)

really real time:

http://vtransmaps.vermont.gov/VTrans511/511live.htm


[url]http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/cams.shtml

[/URL]


----------



## billski (Mar 12, 2014)

I'm heading out for $teaux in a few minutes.  See you all in another life.  Hope you get yours!


----------



## skifree (Mar 12, 2014)

vt traffic cams look awful in the central area


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2014)

hammer said:


> Tough part about the radars is knowing exactly where the rain/snow line is.



It's making a comeback, ticking north a bit well into southern Vermont now.


----------



## jrmagic (Mar 12, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> It's making a comeback, ticking north a bit well into southern Vermont now.



A friend skiing today reported immature snow @ Stratton 20 minutes ago


----------



## D-2.5-GT (Mar 12, 2014)

immature snow = mixed ???
Never heard that one before...


----------



## from_the_NEK (Mar 12, 2014)

Wow, this is now the most replied to thread in the Weather sub-forum.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 12, 2014)

My Friday depends on this storm.


----------



## jrmagic (Mar 12, 2014)

D-2.5-GT said:


> immature snow = mixed ???
> Never heard that one before...



Worse! I just couldn't bring myself to use the r word


----------



## from_the_NEK (Mar 12, 2014)

Burke Webcam looking good... http://skiburke.com/webcam


----------



## slatham (Mar 12, 2014)

Radars not always accurate - had it dump at my Bromley condo (2,300 feet) with no radar echos at all and also with pure green.

skigod.us.com cam, which is at 2,400' or so up Stratton, looks to me to be snow, or a mix, after having shown immature snow earlier for about an hour, and snow earlier. This area in So VT is right on the edge.

Key will tonight when the storm passes, cold air comes in, and storm bombs out. That could result in 12" overnight.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Mar 12, 2014)

Heh! Let's not make "immature snow" a thing ok?


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Mar 12, 2014)

Front has made some serious progress. Expect for the r/s line to crash south around 5-6pm. Temps are crashing in the daks and NVT. 

Albany is having a serious ice storm right now, yikes! Let's hope there isn't any damage.


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Mar 12, 2014)




----------



## UVSHTSTRM (Mar 12, 2014)

During my ride home from work (Manchester to Claremont, NH) it rained the whole way.  This includes New London and Sunapee.  However it did snow out earlier, perhaps 3 inches.  My wife, who just got home from work In Lebanon reports all snow, perhaps 6 inches or more.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2014)

Here's your current temps at 16:20.

Above'ish the 0 should be snow, below'ish the 0 could be mix to rain.


----------



## skiberg (Mar 12, 2014)

Now that we know we are getting the goods, what's the deal for those that will not make it up to the mountains until Sat. Any idea if it is going to rain or snow Sat in VT/NH. Rain and then a freeze Sat will really make for a bummer.


----------



## ChicoKat (Mar 12, 2014)

Raining in Campton 6 miles down Rt. 49 from Waterville. Winds are starting to pick up and temps seems to be dropping.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 12, 2014)

Temps in the Poconos and Catskills are trending about 5-10 degrees below where they were predicted to be at this time of day. We'll see if that trend continues. Would be a nice surprise.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Mar 12, 2014)

I added in some pretty colors from actual radar for ease of visualization.  This is at 16:50.


----------



## Tin (Mar 12, 2014)

Magic must have just updated their site, reporting 3-4" as of now. Hope to see another 8-10" before I get there tomorrow.


----------



## skifree (Mar 12, 2014)

leaving in 5.4.3.2.1.....


----------



## ScottySkis (Mar 12, 2014)

so snow now for the Catskills or still just rain?


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Mar 12, 2014)

Orford NH in the lead with 11" already. Smuggs reports 9", but I assume they're approaching the foot mark by now.


----------



## j law (Mar 12, 2014)

Anybody have thoughts on my day trip tomorrow?  I think I'm trying to decide between Gore and Magic as they are both about the same distance.  

I don't really know the glades at Gore that well but I'm guessing they will be sweet as Gore has already reported 11 inches.

And I love Magic but am thinking it will get skied out more quickly since it will attract all the powder hounds.

I'm guessing I won't be complaining no matter what


----------



## slatham (Mar 12, 2014)

Gore no mix. Magic had mix. Wind issues at Gore? Doubtful at Magic. High speed lifts vs slow? Tough call.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Mar 12, 2014)

Snowing HARD and starting to blow a bit here in the NEK. 4-5 inches on the ground at 1000'. My stake was at 12" this morning and is at 17 right now. Bring on the snow!


----------



## Puck it (Mar 12, 2014)

Cannon reporting 7-8".


----------



## powhunter (Mar 12, 2014)

skiberg said:


> Now that we know we are getting the goods, what's the deal for those that will not make it up to the mountains until Sat. Any idea if it is going to rain or snow Sat in VT/NH. Rain and then a freeze Sat will really make for a bummer.



Yea this pattern has happened way too often this year..Keep your fingers crossed!

Steveo


----------



## flightschool (Mar 12, 2014)

Hoping the gusts aren't too bad at Loon...I don't know if they'll close chairs at 30mph? does anyone?


----------



## Tin (Mar 12, 2014)

Magic still reporting 3" and rain on FB, Pico is "claiming" 10". Might make the trip further north tomorrow if they don't report wind holds.


----------



## thetrailboss (Mar 12, 2014)

Looks like the original poster was right.


----------



## Rowsdower (Mar 12, 2014)

ScottySkis said:


> so snow now for the Catskills or still just rain?




Looks like just rain. Temperature was getting down there but spiked back up in the last couple hours. Hunter maybe 2-4 inches if we're lucky. Plattekill might get in the 3-6 inch range. Bummer. Was hoping to take off Friday. Is there anywhere within 4 hours of Piscatawy/New Brunswick that isn't going to get hosed by rain?


----------



## D-2.5-GT (Mar 12, 2014)

flightschool said:


> Hoping the gusts aren't too bad at Loon...I don't know if they'll close chairs at 30mph? does anyone?



Hard to say. 

Was there a few weeks ago for the last big midweek storm and it was quite windy. They ended up shutting the gondola down early afternoon, but the others were running fine. North peak gusts were strong but seemed straight into wind. Prob depends on direction and strength.


----------



## abc (Mar 12, 2014)

skiberg said:


> Now that we know we are getting the goods, what's the deal for those that will not make it up to the mountains until Sat. Any idea if it is going to rain or snow Sat in VT/NH. Rain and then a freeze Sat will really make for a bummer.


1) I don't see a lot of precip, whatever form it come. 

2) Go as far north as you can and the changeover will be in your favor (at least that's what I plan to do, unless I hear confirmation of the reverse).


----------



## first light (Mar 12, 2014)

I have a customer that is insisting that I go use his ski house near Burke Mtn, I am taking him up on it.  Stoked!


----------



## Sick Bird Rider (Mar 12, 2014)

Just arrived in Montgomery Center, VT. The drive down from the  Hinterlands was a little hair-raising at times but not as bad as  expected. Lots of blowing snow and drifting. Roads in NVT are a little  surfy. 

I'd say there is seven inches of fresh, very fine, dense snow on  the ground here. You know, the cream cheese variety. In my experience,  you can double that for the mountain, though I'm preparing for figuring  out what aspects to ski, considering the wind. 

I'll take it.


----------



## Euler (Mar 12, 2014)

Tin said:


> Magic still reporting 3" and rain on FB, Pico is "claiming" 10". Might make the trip further north tomorrow if they don't report wind holds.


Pico's claim is legit.  I was a Killington today.  A day like you dream about!


----------



## 180 (Mar 12, 2014)

Euler said:


> Pico's claim is legit.  I was a Killington today.  A day like you dream about!



Me too, K was off the chart today.  Over 15" now.  It has slowed down however.  Wind picking up.


----------



## Wavewheeler (Mar 12, 2014)

Hope there is plenty left next week at K!  I gave up on the Cats. Off to Killington I go on Tuesday night!


----------



## makado420 (Mar 13, 2014)

Any budy know if bellerye went to shit or if there getting snow tonight 


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----------



## Wavewheeler (Mar 13, 2014)

When I checked the Hunter webcam at one point (around 9pm) it was raining. A few hours later I saw snow so they did get some but not much. Radar wasn't showing all that much either. It rained a lot of the day in the Cats. At most they got a few inches.

 There was a lot of snow up there when I went last Thursday-Friday so I'm sure a lot is still there but with all the thawing and refreezing that's going on and is forecast for this coming week, it's a toss up as to how good things are or will be. 

I figured with a foot and a half of new snow 150 miles further north and colder temps, it was worth both the drive and added expense, especially since my daughter is coming with me and it will probably be the last ski trip for the season so I'm not taking any chances.


----------



## steamboat1 (Mar 15, 2014)

steamboat1 said:


> Sun.- Mon. looking good & then again Wed. -Thurs. It's going to be a great week in VT.


Well as it worked out just a dusting Sun. night. Mon night maybe an inch or so than blue skies, warm temps & mucho sunshine Tues. I was almost ready to break out the sun block. 24 hours later approaching 2 feet of nice light new snow. I'd say it was a great week.


----------



## Wavewheeler (Mar 15, 2014)

Hopefully next week will be just as good!


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## Powda (Mar 16, 2014)

New to the forum, just wanted to say Thank You to all that contribute. Definitely made my storm skiing experience better.


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