# 12/5 Storm Discussion Thread



## Bostonian (Dec 2, 2009)

Per Noaa:

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PASS FAR ENOUGH EAST OF OUR
REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE STORM WILL
TRACK FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED AND HAVE A BIGGER IMPACT ON OUR REGION.


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## andrec10 (Dec 2, 2009)

What else is new, we get missed/dissed again!:uzi:


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## Glenn (Dec 2, 2009)

I'm watching this one. Regardless of how the storm tracks, looks like cold weather from late this week well into next. Friggin finally!


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## JD (Dec 2, 2009)

inch and a half of rain forcast...that is gonna do some damage...boating should be epic though!


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## wa-loaf (Dec 2, 2009)

JD said:


> inch and a half of rain forcast...that is gonna do some damage...boating should be epic though!



That's the Thursday storm. Gonna be 60 around here.

There's a potential for something Fri night and Saturday. At the very least cold weather will be in for a bit.


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## JD (Dec 2, 2009)

Ah.  Looks like flurries for us on Noaa....


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## Greg (Dec 2, 2009)

Bostonian said:


> Per Noaa:
> 
> ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PASS FAR ENOUGH EAST OF OUR
> REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
> ...



3 days out, I actually prefer the unfavorable track....means it can only improve. Nothing worse that predictions of a bomb 3 days out and the the track goes East.:smash:


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## Harvey (Dec 2, 2009)

No question that you'd rather have a storm track too far east vs west. If it does end up east, then at least that means it will be cold.  Plus it always seems like storms are more likely to be farther west of forecast vs the other way around.


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## Greg (Dec 2, 2009)

harvey44 said:


> No question that you'd rather have a storm track too far east vs west. If it does end up east, then at least that means it will be cold.  Plus it always seems like storms are more likely to be farther west of forecast vs the other way around.



Good point. There are two "unfavorable" tracks. The one we have now is way less unfavorable than that other unfavorable one. :lol:


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## Grassi21 (Dec 2, 2009)

JD said:


> inch and a half of rain forcast...that is gonna do some damage...boating should be epic though!



Got dry-suite?


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## 4aprice (Dec 2, 2009)

Boy the models and the forecasters are all over the place with these storms and beyond.  Doesn't seem like anyone has a handle on it.  I've read everything from extended cold to more of the November warmth we've had over the next month.  It hard to get excited about any prospects right now.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## KingM (Dec 2, 2009)

4aprice said:


> Boy the models and the forecasters are all over the place with these storms and beyond.  Doesn't seem like anyone has a handle on it.  I've read everything from extended cold to more of the November warmth we've had over the next month.  It hard to get excited about any prospects right now.



It really does remind me of the start of 2006/2007, where the weather kept sucking, but was about to turn favorable any moment now.

There was always just one more warm/rainy stretch and then this mythical cold air mass would come roaring down from Canada. It eventually came, of course, but I prefer not to wait until February if I can help it.


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## Harvey (Dec 2, 2009)

KingM said:


> It really does remind me of the start of 2006/2007, where the weather kept sucking, but was about to turn favorable any moment now.
> 
> There was always just one more warm/rainy stretch and then this mythical cold air mass would come roaring down from Canada.



This is so 100% true I can't stand it.  

Riv already pointed out the cruel irony in the "cold start to November?" thread title.


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## Glenn (Dec 2, 2009)

Hopefully, we'll have a better idea of what this is going to do by Thursday. I bet a lot of effort is on the "event" that's rolling through tonight and early tomorrow. Already heard the wind could be nasty later tonight.


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## WJenness (Dec 2, 2009)

Glenn said:


> Hopefully, we'll have a better idea of what this is going to do by Thursday. I bet a lot of effort is on the "event" that's rolling through tonight and early tomorrow. Already heard the wind could be nasty later tonight.



Wind & Rain is still better than the ice storm we had about this time last year...

Let's hope we don't have another one of those this year.

-w


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## hammer (Dec 2, 2009)

WJenness said:


> Wind & Rain is still better than the ice storm we had about this time last year...
> 
> Let's hope we don't have another one of those this year.
> 
> -w


Please no...4 days without electricity was *not *fun (and I know I didn't have it as bad as many).


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## drjeff (Dec 2, 2009)

KingM said:


> It really does remind me of the start of 2006/2007, where the weather kept sucking, but was about to turn favorable any moment now.
> 
> There was always just one more warm/rainy stretch and then this mythical cold air mass would come roaring down from Canada. It eventually came, of course, but I prefer not to wait until February if I can help it.



Yup, frustrating!!! :smash: :smash: :smash:

The big thing in watching the long range models quite regularly over the last few years, is when these air masses from Canada this time a year that look very promising far out in terms of cold air, is that this time of year, they tend to be a solid 10-15 degrees warmer in actuality than what the models suggest 7 to 10 days out.  Much of that basically seems to happen, because of the following.  If you think of the mass of cold air from Canada as a "U" shape, that mass of air usually originates from somewhere around Alaska.  As it move to the East, it's not just spreading East, but also South.  The air also flows counterclockwise  within the air mass so there is mixing, especially on the Eastern side of the airmass with warmer air from the Southern part of the pool of cold air.  So when that cold air roars across the US Canadian Border in the upper midwest and places in Montana, North Dakota and Minnesota are sub zero,  if that pool of air plunges down towards the gulf coast (as it often does), by the time it gets to the East Coast, (especially the Northeast) that pool of sub zero air is getting tempered with air coming up along the Eastern side of that "U" shaped pool of air that has already been down by the gulf coast, and hence why we see temps in the 20's, not the sub zero stuff alot this time of year  

I'm done with my weather geek-dom now and headed back to my usual tooth geek-dom now


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## Glenn (Dec 2, 2009)

That ice storm was brutal. My wife and I were at the mountain that entire week. We got rained out one day, then Friday it was shut due to power being out. I took some amazing pics that day. The damage was just incredible.


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## bigbog (Dec 4, 2009)

Certainly a rocky start...and certainly was nice though to roll down the windows yesterday when stuck in the #495_parking_lot-thing.  Man, I'd forgotten how much fun #495 is/used to be...LOL  Maybe the nighttime hours of some resorts are a thing of the future with the artificial stuff that Dan Egan put down @Tenney ??? I never took time to read into that but...with the sudden swings in weather systems it might be the future, however sad that might be.  I think with a good job offer I get out west...might be "Add Em' Up, Move Em' Out"...for me...:roll:  ...Or even BC(Canada)....


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## jaja111 (Dec 4, 2009)

I can't even look at the weather anymore. It constantly goes from predictions of heavy lake effect to warmer and light rain showers the morning of said predicted event. Thank god meteorologists aren't medical doctors, "you have cancer.....now we think its just a cold" or engineers, "that's a catastrophic structural failure waiting to happen right there..... today we believe it to be a small amount of dirt which happened to look like a crack", or work for NASA, "Tank foam could never cause any substantial damage to the orbiter if it were to strike it during launch........." well...... never mind on that one.

On the western periphery the only good thing about any system Saturday is that the night temps have finally lowered almost enough to start the guns. It's all gonna be about the guns in the first half of Dec.


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## jaja111 (Dec 4, 2009)

bigbog said:


> I think with a good job offer I get out west...might be "Add Em' Up, Move Em' Out"...for me...:roll:  ...Or even BC(Canada)....



You might say different if you had seen all the wonderful little edge smashing cookies in the paltry cover at Whistler throughout the whole season. They have their bad luck too.


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## hammer (Dec 4, 2009)

WCVB in Boston is putting up a forecast map with over 7 inches predicted for the Worcester area...

http://www.thebostonchannel.com/index.html


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## wa-loaf (Dec 4, 2009)

That's me! sweet.


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## WJenness (Dec 4, 2009)

That'll be helpful for WaWa anyway...

-w


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## wa-loaf (Dec 4, 2009)

WJenness said:


> That'll be helpful for WaWa anyway...
> 
> -w



Hoping to ski Thursday night before the race league kick-off party. They made it sound like it's possible. 7 inches will certainly help them get there.


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## Greg (Dec 4, 2009)

Some of the easternwx forum guys are saying this might be bigger than anyone expected. like 6"+.


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## WJenness (Dec 4, 2009)

wa-loaf said:


> Hoping to ski Thursday night before the race league kick-off party. They made it sound like it's possible. 7 inches will certainly help them get there.



I did pick up a Wa pass, but I'm out for skiing until after next weekend... My boots are at my buddy's condo in ME.

He may head up there this weekend, if he does, I'll tell him to grab them, just in case.

-w


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## Madroch (Dec 4, 2009)

Greg said:


> Some of the easternwx forum guys are saying this might be bigger than anyone expected. like 6"+.



I've been suckered by those guys too many times to fall for this again.... but yeah, I'll pack the gear tonight...

But seriously, some of the more reputable guys are suggesting a small surprise may be in order.. we could sure use it.


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## Madroch (Dec 4, 2009)

Eastern guys are also clucking again about next week, thinking it may not be the doom and gloom we first thought... that would be nice too.


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## WJenness (Dec 4, 2009)

I'm looking forward to exercising the AWD in my car tomorrow night...

-w


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## YardSaleDad (Dec 4, 2009)

I had snow tires put on yesterday.  Sorry for the delay.  You may start your season now.


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## Harvey (Dec 4, 2009)

EDIT: I removed that big ugly (correction BEAUTIFUL) image since it's overwhelms the page, and hammer's weather.com image does the job as well or better.



harvey44 said:


> No question that you'd rather have a storm track too far east vs west. If it does end up east, then at least that means it will be cold.  Plus it always seems like storms are more likely to be farther west of forecast vs the other way around.



I think this is a case of the above theory in action.


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## WJenness (Dec 4, 2009)

Yes please.


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## hammer (Dec 4, 2009)

Weather Channel just changed their forecast...


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## KingM (Dec 4, 2009)

I'd love for that to slide another hundred miles north, but after what we've faced the last two weeks, I'll take it.


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## riverc0il (Dec 4, 2009)

I'll skin Wa if they get more than mountains around here.


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## bvibert (Dec 4, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> I'll skin Wa if they get more than mountains around here.



How long of a drive would that be for you?


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## WoodCore (Dec 4, 2009)

Looks like its time to put the snow tires on the MTB. :lol:


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## riverc0il (Dec 4, 2009)

bvibert said:


> How long of a drive would that be for you?


Just under two hours. Wa is actually closer to me than Jay. If the storm didn't seem to be going bust, I would think I might even make the drive. Not for four inches though.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 4, 2009)

Looks like it's down to 3-5 in the Worcester area.


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## billski (Dec 4, 2009)

WoodCore said:


> Looks like its time to put the snow tires on the MTB. :lol:


 
damn earth is too warm.  it will melt on the road.


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## billski (Dec 4, 2009)

Finally looks like NNE will get and stay cold for a while.


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## ZYDECORICH (Dec 4, 2009)

looks like the VOODOO LADY is just warming up... she did say storms on wed and sat all winter...a prelude??


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## polski (Dec 5, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> I'll skin Wa if they get more than mountains around here.



Anyone know how friendly Crotched is for skinning when they're not open? (With usual assumptions -- stay away from mountain ops.) Slightly N of Wa and after reading/seeing a bunch of reports, my hunch is they (and Granite Gorge?) are pretty well situated for max accum from this weekend's event. Whether that's enough to be worth the effort is a separate question, and a game-day call.


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## riverc0il (Dec 5, 2009)

With the shifting forecast, I had considered Crotched as an option as well. I think any area currently engaging in active snow making is going to be unfriendly to the thought of people hiking up there while they are trying to work. So finding an area of the mountain not having active snow making would be a good idea.


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## polski (Dec 5, 2009)

Crotched has a pretty good spread, especially considering the old "Crotched East" (still and probably permanently NELSAP territory) if any of that is still skiable. And though they seriously know how to do snowmaking there, they can't blow snow on 100% of the mountain at once. So I'm thinking this has potential, though I'd still appreciate intelligence if anyone has it re how they've treated actual uphill skiers who are being sensible about their endeavors.


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## billski (Dec 5, 2009)

Crotched unbelievably can cover their entire mountain in  2 days with manmade.  Seen it happen multiple times.  All it takes is water and money, which they seem to have.  The natural is only looking like about 3", but the NWS is hedging a little in case the storm "sticks around a little longer."  WaWa and Nashoba skier factory will be happy.  I see JP started blowing snow yesterday.    The big question in my mind is, "will the cold stick around for a while?"


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## Greg (Dec 5, 2009)

36.5*F and cloudy right now. Lots of virga over us on radar. NWS calling for a total of 2-4". Waiting for flakes to fall.


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## hammer (Dec 5, 2009)

And here's the obligatory Intellicast radar image...


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## wa-loaf (Dec 5, 2009)

Winter weather advisory



> ... Winter weather advisory in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 7 am est sunday...
> 
> The national weather service in taunton has issued a winter weather advisory for snow... Which is in effect from 3 pm this afternoon to 7 am est sunday.
> 
> ...


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## Greg (Dec 5, 2009)

39*F and it just started snowing. Big dry slot it looks like though.


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## pepperdawg (Dec 5, 2009)

Nothing here on the Broad Brook/Ellington line yet.....looks nice and grey though


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## rocojerry (Dec 5, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> I'll skin Wa if they get more than mountains around here.



I was thinking that too, but I left my ski's and skins up in NH -- doh!


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## 2knees (Dec 5, 2009)

with the 12:26 update, they're calling for the heaviest snow in western hartford county.

right where sundown resides..... too bad its falling on 50 degree bare ground.


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## ERJ-145CA (Dec 5, 2009)

The snow is coming down in NW NJ, it started about an hour ago but it is now really heavy.  Just starting to stick to the grass and cars.:grin:


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## twinplanx (Dec 5, 2009)

*12/5-6 Storm Totals*

Ok so it's only mid-day Saturday but let us know whats accumulating and where:grinlease


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## ERJ-145CA (Dec 5, 2009)

Figured I'd add a pic from my front door a few minutes ago.  It's finally looking like winter.  The problem is the jones just kicked into ultra-high gear but noplace is open.


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## riverc0il (Dec 5, 2009)

Just starting to begin to snow here in Ashland. Time to take the pupper for a long walk so I can enjoy (and she can enjoy too!).


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## billski (Dec 5, 2009)

been raining here since about 11.  about 39 degrees on the surface/  anticipating a switchover by dark.


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## polski (Dec 5, 2009)

billski said:


> Crotched unbelievably can cover their entire mountain in  2 days with manmade.  Seen it happen multiple times.  All it takes is water and money, which they seem to have.


Yes, their snowmaking is extremely impressive, though I haven't personally seen them go from zero to 100% quite that quickly. Interesting writeup of their snowmaking here, but I must say I'm having trouble wrapping my brain around the claim that they can make snow at temps up to 36F :-o


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## St. Bear (Dec 5, 2009)

It's been snowing in NW Jersey for the past couple hours.  Maybe about an inch on the ground so far, and still coming down hard.


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## Grassi21 (Dec 5, 2009)

Snowing in the 'bury.


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## GolfingOwl (Dec 5, 2009)

Snowing in suburban Philly.  Expecting 2-5" down here.  Rain changed to snow about hour and a half earlier than forcasted.


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## bvibert (Dec 5, 2009)

Some sort of non-liquid precipitation falling here now.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Dec 5, 2009)

Cold NCP here on LI....tree is up and decorated, christmas tunes throughtout the house....awaiting the snow...saying 2-4..we'll see


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## KingM (Dec 5, 2009)

There's white stuff falling from the sky. Anyone know what I'm looking at? Looks vaguely familiar, but it's been a long, loooong time.


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## TheBEast (Dec 5, 2009)

Snowing basically all day here in Easthampton, MA, but nothing sticking.....ground is still pretty warm.


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## millerm277 (Dec 5, 2009)

Mix from 1-3PM in Central NJ (Warren, Somerset County).
Entirely changed over at 3PM to some pretty heavy snow, if this keeps up it should start accumulating soon. Temp is 37F and falling 2F an hour it seems.


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## severine (Dec 5, 2009)

Barely sticking to the ground on this side of town, but I don't think it is on the other side or downtown yet. Not sticking to roads; just grass.


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## ZYDECORICH (Dec 5, 2009)

About an inch so far here in West Milford NJ. snowing steady to hard. may get 4.


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## millerm277 (Dec 5, 2009)

Snowing hard in central NJ (Warren, Somerset County), @240ft elevation. Grass, cars, and everything that's not pavement is covered and accumulating quickly, pavement is just starting.


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## polski (Dec 5, 2009)

here's another pretty good radar, interactive unlike Intellicast.

Pretty funny to listen to Matt Noyes' live wx chat. He's like a little kid with this stuff - a real knowledgeable little kid. "Here comes the vort! Here comes the vort!"


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## drjeff (Dec 5, 2009)

I've got about 3" of good snowball snow on the railing on my deck at Mount Snow.  I'm at about 2200 feet (roughly 400 feet above the base area).  Still coming down pretty well,  27-28 degrees, the sound of fan guns humming away in the distance


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## RootDKJ (Dec 5, 2009)

Got around 2" in Summit NJ and still coming down strong.  I'm frigging stoked. Summer wax is coming off tonight


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## billski (Dec 5, 2009)

KingM said:


> There's white stuff falling from the sky. Anyone know what I'm looking at? Looks vaguely familiar, but it's been a long, loooong time.



They musta left the backdoor of the pizza joint open, big gust of wind came along.  Flour.  It must be Flour.


Just started snowing mix here about 5pm in the flatlands.

Hey King, here's hoping you have plow-able dough !  8)


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## riverc0il (Dec 5, 2009)

Let's have some central MA reporting here if you guys don't mind. Specifically in the Wachusett area. Need to figure out if it is going to be worth the drive so I'll be looking for numbers tonight and tomorrow morning.


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## billski (Dec 5, 2009)

Lexington has just transitioned and nothing is setttling. Ambient temps are still a bit above freezing. I can't believe Wawa is too much better. YET.   Check the traffic conditions for the best bet on real-time reporting....
The next 12 hrs will make all the diff.


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## billski (Dec 5, 2009)

billski said:


> Lexington has just transitioned and nothing is setttling. Ambient temps are still a bit above freezing. I can't believe Wawa is too much better. YET. Check the traffic conditions for the best bet on real-time reporting....
> The next 12 hrs will make all the diff.


 
My understanding that West of Rte 495 the snow has become heavy, reduced visibility.


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## billski (Dec 5, 2009)

here is a Worcester web cam, downtown.  May be worth watching later
http://www.telegram.com/static/cams/


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## JD (Dec 5, 2009)

Snowing oin Northfield....an inch down, roads covered.  Prolly 3-6 by tomorrow where it counts....


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## Greg (Dec 5, 2009)

Dumping. An inch+ and sticking to the non-grassy surfaces now. First plow of the season just drove by. Woohoo!!!


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## 2knees (Dec 5, 2009)

man i really hope we get something down here by the river.  we're so low in elevation though, i have my doubts.  I got my snowblower tuned up last week and i'm dying to use it.


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## bvibert (Dec 5, 2009)

Just a coating on the grass here, nothing sticking to the roads and sidewalks yet...


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## severine (Dec 5, 2009)

However, on the other side of town, sticking to parking lot and the plow has come by at least once. Still, maybe 1-2 inches at the most right now.


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## bvibert (Dec 5, 2009)

severine said:


> However, on the other side of town, sticking to parking lot and the plow has come by at least once. Still, maybe 1-2 inches at the most right now.



Yeah, I should go outside next time, instead of looking out the kitchen window.  We have a good solid coating on the sidewalk and driveway, no more than an inch on the grass.  The city plow has gone by at least once.


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## ZYDECORICH (Dec 5, 2009)

3 here in West Milford, still steady... gonna stop by 10 they say...4? at least mountain creek has a start... for a day.


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## RootDKJ (Dec 5, 2009)

It's changed over to snow / rain mix here now. Saw salt trucks driving around town.  I'm so happy we finally got a taste of winter.


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## wa-loaf (Dec 5, 2009)

Started to switch over around 4, but less than an inch out there still. Starting to stick on the street and the temp is 30. Hoping it turns on good for a bit.


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## riverc0il (Dec 5, 2009)

wa-loaf said:


> Started to switch over around 4, but less than an inch out there still. Starting to stick on the street and the temp is 30. Hoping it turns on good for a bit.


Thanks for the update, wa-loaf! We already have an inch sticking up here in Ashland, NH. I am moving my location watching further northward as I think the snow predictions are off. Any reports from the Francestown or Henniker areas?

:beer:


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## wa-loaf (Dec 5, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> Thanks for the update, wa-loaf! We already have an inch sticking up here in Ashland, NH. I am moving my location watching further northward as I think the snow predictions are off. Any reports from the Francestown or Henniker areas?
> 
> :beer:



Yup, the storm totals have shrunk to 1-4 from 3-5. Sounds like the Monadnocks are going to be the sweet spot.


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## hammer (Dec 5, 2009)

polski said:


> here's another pretty good radar, interactive unlike Intellicast.
> 
> Pretty funny to listen to Matt Noyes' live wx chat. He's like a little kid with this stuff - a real knowledgeable little kid. "Here comes the vort! Here comes the vort!"


I'm listening in on Matt's live chat...right now a person on Cape Ann is reporting thundersnow. :-o


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## polski (Dec 5, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> Thanks for the update, wa-loaf! We already have an inch sticking up here in Ashland, NH. I am moving my location watching further northward as I think the snow predictions are off. Any reports from the Francestown or Henniker areas?



I haven't seen any but with radar suggesting precip will be cut off for both areas real soon now, NWS public info statements have reports of 3" in central MA (S of Francestown), 1.6" at Concord NH airport (due E of Henniker) and 2.5" in Sullivan County NH, due west of Sunapee. Looks like not much more than fast grass for tomorrow, unfortunately.

Zooming this radar in on the Conway area, I dunno, Wildcat maybe? At least there'd be a little crust for the dust there ...


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## polski (Dec 5, 2009)

Some NWS reports thus far: Keene 3.1", Tilton 6.0, Laconia 4.5, Northfield 5.7, Sunapee 4.0. Riv, looks like YOU are pretty much in the bullseye ...


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## deadheadskier (Dec 5, 2009)

Probably 2.5-3 inches here on the NH seacoast with the snow still coming down pretty good.


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## polski (Dec 6, 2009)

via Twitter: 

Gunstockmtn 6 inches at Gunstock tonight. Just measured in the driveway, no drifts, just good heavy wet snow to start. Cold on the way 4 snowmaking


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## riverc0il (Dec 6, 2009)

polski said:


> Some NWS reports thus far: Keene 3.1", Tilton 6.0, Laconia 4.5, Northfield 5.7, Sunapee 4.0. Riv, looks like YOU are pretty much in the bullseye ...


2" tops outside my window this morning. Maybe less than two, hard to get a good read. Bullseye is definitely south of me. Tilton is only 20 miles directly south. That is a big variation that close!


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## riverc0il (Dec 6, 2009)

polski said:


> via Twitter:
> 
> Gunstockmtn 6 inches at Gunstock tonight. Just measured in the driveway, no drifts, just good heavy wet snow to start. Cold on the way 4 snowmaking


Looks like Gunstock it is! 6" is generally my preferred minimum for earning turns at a location with no base. Will report back later today!


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## Greg (Dec 6, 2009)

Nice Steve. I ended up with almost 3". Not bad and better than rain. I guess Sundown is similar and it being 26*F, this should set up and set a nice foundation for snow making. Cool to see white again.


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## billski (Dec 6, 2009)

*Lexington MA*

Probably 4" technically, but perhaps 2-3" just walking around in it.  It was quite wet at first, and seemed to end earlier than forecast.  Because it started as rain, it's an icy crust underlayment with a medium density snow atop.   Went to the gas station to use the air pump, it was glazed over, with a final coating of snow firmly encrusted.  Had to bang the ice off to get it to operate.  
That said, the well-trafficked roads are all clear, branches and limbs down here and there.
Sun is shining, expect that glaze underlayment to soften and be good skiing by the afternoon.   Would like to hear how Wa-wa made out; good base anyways.

Decided to put the snow tires on this AM.   This afternoon get the storage wax off the skis.  Procrastinate from doing real work...


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## wa-loaf (Dec 6, 2009)

2 or so, meh, it's a step in the right direction anyway.


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## ERJ-145CA (Dec 6, 2009)

We got 5" here.  Looks nice all the trees are white too.  Things are looking up, with snowmaking temps at night all week, hopefully I'll finally get to start my season next weekend.


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## riverc0il (Dec 6, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> Looks like Gunstock it is! 6" is generally my preferred minimum for earning turns at a location with no base. Will report back later today!


Bail. I think that Gunstock Twitter post was pretty off the mark. The NWS spotter in Gilford reported 2.5. I can not find a report I trust in the area for more than 3". Even Gunstock's official report is only 2-4" or 2-3" depending upon which part of the report you read as both numbers are listed. With an unfrozen ground and temps coming out of freezing, the snow is melting from both the bottom and the top. I doubt they got much more than 4" let alone that 6" reported on Twitter. Maybe the person reporting for Gunstock lives south east of Lake Winni and was reporting from their home which seems more likely as I saw a NWS report of 5" in the Rochester area, as I recall.


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## deadheadskier (Dec 6, 2009)

We definitely got 5ish here in Newmarket.  The ground doesn't reflect that as it was melting from the bottom as it was landing.  I did check several fence rails around the property last night and I was sinking my hand a solid 5 inches in.  

Certainly nothing to get excited about, but it sure is nice that it at least looks like winter out there.


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## severine (Dec 6, 2009)

According to the news, 4" in our town. I doubt it. Melting already, too. Half the yard is back to grass already.


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## 4aprice (Dec 6, 2009)

Was up in the Pocono Mountains yesterday.  A nice little thumping. A solid 4-6 inch snowfall up on the plateau at about 1700 ft elevation.

When I arrived at Camelback on Saturday, before the storm, they had started snowmaking Friday night and were working on Upper Marc Anthony, Upper Cleopatra, Marjies Delight, and The Rocket between the elevations of 1500 ft to the summit at 2000 feet.  Looks like they got a good day today.  Tenative opening day Dec 12th.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## psyflyer (Dec 6, 2009)

2 inches on Burke Mt...


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## riverc0il (Dec 6, 2009)

I guess the moral of this week is going to be that beggars can not be choosers. Just read up on the Weds/Thurs event from Fox and FIS and it looks like any snow will be followed by freezing rain and rain with totals only expected to be around the 6" mark on average before the NCP. We continue to not have that promised deep freeze to allow for 24-7 snow making temperatures (though it will be pretty close this next week). I guess I should just be thankful for the melting 2" that are outside my door... but part of me says what the hell were those winter seasonal long term forecasters thinking last month and the month before? Mental note for next year: don't bother reading them. Even though I know they can not be trusted, one can't help but get their hopes up when they are all so optimistic.


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## ZYDECORICH (Dec 6, 2009)

ERJ-145CA said:


> We got 5" here.  Looks nice all the trees are white too.  Things are looking up, with snowmaking temps at night all week, hopefully I'll finally get to start my season next weekend.



yeah looks about the same here...up the mountain they said they got 7... lets get these mountains covered so we can get going!


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## amf (Dec 6, 2009)

8" @ 3000' in Canaan Valley, WV.  More higher up. Sweet!


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## polski (Dec 6, 2009)

riverc0il said:


> part of me says what the hell were those winter seasonal long term forecasters thinking last month and the month before? Mental note for next year: don't bother reading them. Even though I know they can not be trusted, one can't help but get their hopes up when they are all so optimistic.


It's still only early December! Remember, the best analog supposedly is 06-07 and that was an abysmal Dec and most of Jan before it went off big time from V-Day to Easter.

Anyway, can't blame you for the bail on Gunstock today. Only reason I went for a few (literally) turns in 3" on no base was I knew it was on mowed grass, so I figured I'd be reasonably safe from rocks. It was more of a novelty, with some good scouting value.


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## riverc0il (Dec 6, 2009)

polski said:


> It's still only early December!


I think that would be a good reminder for most skiers. But some of my best powder days have come during the early season prior to Christmas when most folks either are out doing holiday shopping or not aware of the surprise storms lampooning the north country. Due to limited terrain offerings, early season also means easily accessible untracked powder is only a short hike away from the few lifts running when powder is around. Simply put, this is the worst off season I have seen in the six years that I have been really going after things. 20-25% of my days are Oct-Dec so I can not so easily write it off as only December.


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## billski (Dec 6, 2009)

I'm pretty happy that it's almost all sticking around my place, even the trees are still covered and stuck with ice/snow.  Not like spring storms that when the warmer sun comes out clear all the snow from the trees.   I can dream.....


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## Greg (Dec 6, 2009)

polski said:


> Remember, the best analog supposedly is 06-07 and that was an abysmal Dec and most of Jan before it went off big time from V-Day to Easter.



This is what I've been thinking. Yeah, November sucked, but December has proven to be much better already than December 2006.


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## riverc0il (Dec 6, 2009)

Greg said:


> This is what I've been thinking. Yeah, November sucked, but December has proven to be much better already than December 2006.


October through December in 2006 was far superior to this year. Even if you nix October 06 (which was unreal), November saw resorts open on Thanksgiving. Even though December was not so hot, at least resorts were actually open during the first two weeks. Not to mention a one foot powder day (12/09/06). Things are starting to turn around and it looks like the second half of December will be way better than 2006. But so far, I would take Dec06 vs Dec09 for the first 10 days of the month.


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