# The Official 12/7 Clipper Discussion Thread



## Greg (Dec 2, 2008)

I'm hearing rumblings. Any thoughts?


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## WJenness (Dec 2, 2008)

<throws things into an Ullr pleasing fire>

-w


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## Justin10 (Dec 2, 2008)

A really quick look at the models shows that the cold air will be here this time, even down towards southern New England.  Precip intensity is prety low now, but that doesnt really matter because that can and will change as its still 5-6 days out.  Definitly something to keep an eye on...think SNOW!!!


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## SkiManSB (Dec 2, 2008)

*Snow on Sunday*

Looks like a good possibility, at least from NOAA's point of view.

But better than that... COLD AIR is coming in!  It looks like the temps are going to drop beginning Thursday night and continue on into next week.

At this point in the season, I don't care if it falls from the sky or from the gun, I just want snow!!!


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## KingM (Dec 2, 2008)

We already have good early snow in the north country. All we need is one dump on top of that base and we'll be good to go.

As long as the temps stay the same, and we keep getting a few inches here and there, we'll get there in a week or two, but I'm greedy.


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## severine (Dec 2, 2008)

SkiManSB said:


> At this point in the season, I don't care if it falls from the sky or from the gun, I just want snow!!!


+1


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## SkiManSB (Dec 2, 2008)

KingM said:


> We already have good early snow in the north country. All we need is one dump on top of that base and we'll be good to go.
> 
> As long as the temps stay the same, and we keep getting a few inches here and there, we'll get there in a week or two, but I'm greedy.



We'll be up there skiing Mt. Ellen on the 13th & 14th, so freshies up north would be great!


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## skiing is life (Dec 2, 2008)

http://accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=forecastfox&traveler=1&article=5


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## SKIQUATTRO (Dec 2, 2008)

looks like a nice clipper coming down from canada and a low forming south of LI...i'm thinking more of a coastal event with NYC Metro-Btown-ME with 3-6"


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## loafer89 (Dec 2, 2008)

Looks like a good storm for the fish off Cape Cod.


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## Glenn (Dec 3, 2008)

Local weather guy isn't getting to excited about it for CT. But I'm more concerned with VT. Looks like another system may be brewing Tuesday into Wednesday.


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## loafer89 (Dec 3, 2008)

Next tuesday's storm looks like it might be a Great Lakes Cutter. What a suprise that would be

Hopefully we do not establish this track as the dominant winter pattern


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## drjeff (Dec 3, 2008)

loafer89 said:


> Next tuesday's storm looks like it might be a Great Lakes Cutter. What a suprise that would be
> 
> Hopefully we do not establish this track as the dominant winter pattern




Kind of a catch 22 type weather pattern we've had predominately so far this year.  When the cold is present, basically the Gulf of Mexico and the waters of the Atlantic off the East Coast have been cut off until all but the end of a storm system as a moisture source.  Then, when we get a system that has the vast moisture supply of water of the waters of the Atlantic + Gulf, we haven't had the cold air throughout the system and we've been getting these "slurpee" storms that give us a bit of everything.  Good thing though, is that for *most* of ski country, these moisture rich "slurpee" storms have been net positive storms that have laid down what could very well serve as an awesome base for when we finally get the big, all cold, moisture rich storm


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## loafer89 (Dec 3, 2008)

The longer range weather pattern forecasts that I have come across suggest a warm finish to December that will extend into early January.

Perhaps this winter will be like the 2006-2007 season where winter finally showed up in late January.

It would be nice to see some natural snowfall this weekend here in the wild's of Eastern Connecticut, hopefuly this clipper can deliver the goods.


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## Greg (Dec 3, 2008)

loafer89 said:


> Perhaps this winter will be like the 2006-2007 season where winter finally showed up in late January.



It's already far better than how that season started...

With moguls in place and a deep base on Temptor at Sundown, I'm content ripping spring bumps at home for the next several weeks. They'll make snow when they can. I'll head north only when the big snows come. There's no point for me otherwise.


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## drjeff (Dec 3, 2008)

loafer89 said:


> The longer range weather pattern forecasts that I have come across suggest a warm finish to December that will extend into early January.
> 
> Perhaps this winter will be like the 2006-2007 season where winter finally showed up in late January.
> 
> It would be nice to see some natural snowfall this weekend here in the wild's of Eastern Connecticut, hopefuly this clipper can deliver the goods.



We seem to be in about a 10 to 15 day cycle of cold stuff and then "warmer" stuff.  The decent thing if this pattern trend continues is that the "warmer" stuff will get colder during the next few weeks!

So far though, this winter is way better than '06/'07 IMHO.  Even though it took forever for things winter to get established that year,  the early season was awfull!  I vividly remember driving upto Mount Snow the 1st weekend of January that year and seeing the temps go UP from the 40's to the 50's as I got closer to the mountain and then being woken up many times that night from the sound of the downpour on the skylight   The next morning was so ugly on the hill that I just sat in the baselodge for about an hour and then just left and went back home to CT rather than stay the rest of the weekend.  That was one brutal 6 or so week weather window that year from basically Thanksgiving through the 1st week of January.


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## Johnskiismore (Dec 3, 2008)

Well Quebec ski areas are pretty happy with the current models


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## loafer89 (Dec 3, 2008)

November has some really good snowmaking weather, with spells of really warm weather mixed in that melted off some of what was made. It was nice to ski so much open terrain at Killington and Stratton last month, but my hopes for December are not high especially with warm weather and GLC storms forecasted for mid-month.

I guess my point with comparing this season to the 2006-2007 season is for the expectation for snowfall in Southern New England to be delayed until late January.

Currently much of Southern New England is WAY below normal in terms of snowfall for late fall/early meteorological winter.

Being that I like snow alot more than skiing, the inner self would like to see some snowfall that does not come out of a gun/snow cannon.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Dec 3, 2008)

still up in the air for Sunday's precip...but this is looking nice (abeit 8 days out)


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## 2knees (Dec 3, 2008)

loafer89 said:


> Currently much of Southern New England is WAY below normal in terms of snowfall for late fall/early meteorological winter.
> .




i have no statistical data to back this up, but way below normal for southern new england in november is what, 4 inches?  seriously, it doesnt snow much in sne period, never mind waaaay before christmas.


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## billski (Dec 3, 2008)

I won't get cranked about a potential dump until Powderfreak indicates something is brewing....


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## loafer89 (Dec 3, 2008)

2knees said:


> i have no statistical data to back this up, but way below normal for southern new england in november is what, 4 inches? seriously, it doesnt snow much in sne period, never mind waaaay before christmas.


 

We are about 4-8" below normal, actually BDL did not even report a trace of snow for November.

Last year at this point we already had close to 6" in my area.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Dec 4, 2008)

this one i think is going to be too far west off shore to bring any substantial snows to the coast....maybe an inch or 2 but thats it...


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## SKIQUATTRO (Dec 4, 2008)

east rather...


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## drjeff (Dec 4, 2008)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> this one i think is going to be too far west off shore to bring any substantial snows to the coast....maybe an inch or 2 but thats it...





SKIQUATTRO said:


> east rather...



Powder day for the Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket


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## Greg (Dec 4, 2008)

Hope we pull a few inches out of the clipper moving through though. Maybe the secondary will come more west. There's still time.


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## Euler (Dec 5, 2008)

It's loking like we might get a little freshening up Saturday night /Sunday morning... NOAA/NWS Albany says this about the SoVT region as of 6AM Friday:



> 1-3 INCHES QUITE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE N AND E...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. HOWEVER...*SHOULD MORE MOISTURE BECOME ENTRAINED...EVEN HIGHER AMTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE THE 00Z/05 MREFS ARE INDICATING MORE ROBUST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...*MORE THAN IN RECENT RUNS...HINTING AT SOME POSSIBILITY FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE NEAR OR E OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.



I'm keeping my fingers crossed for this one!


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## Glenn (Dec 5, 2008)

Nice! They're saying we may get some snow in CT...so it must be tracking further West than expected. 

I see something on the horizon for Tuesday...and possibly Thursday? Could be a busy weather week!


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## KingM (Dec 5, 2008)

Yeah, it looks like it might be something. Maybe not big, but enough to keep the ski resorts moving forward in opening, increasing trail count, etc.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Dec 5, 2008)

thinking 2-4 most of CT, Mass, SVT., NH 1-3 NVT......i think another tread needs to be started regarding the storm brewing for later next week....looks like lot 'o energy...


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## billski (Dec 5, 2008)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> thinking 2-4 most of CT, Mass, SVT., NH 1-3 NVT......i think another tread needs to be started regarding the storm brewing for later next week....looks like lot 'o energy...


Really?  NWS isn't really big on this weekend:


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## bvibert (Dec 5, 2008)

SKIQUATTRO said:


> thinking 2-4 most of CT



That would be pretty sweet!


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## Euler (Dec 5, 2008)

billski said:


> Really?  NWS isn't really big on this weekend:


You posted a map about probs for *at least* four inches of snowfall and used it to question people who are talking about *at most* four inches of snowfall.  Also , the map reinforces the point that there is a small (<10% according to the map you posted) liklihood of more than 4 inches for parts of Vermont/New England.  I'm still looking forward to some fresh snow for Sunday


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## SKIQUATTRO (Dec 5, 2008)

there is so much uncerntanity right now about how/where this is going to develop that they are staying very conserative right now until more models become avail...


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## skiing is life (Dec 5, 2008)

4 inches predicted here. mini powdah day at the beast


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## pepperdawg (Dec 6, 2008)

Weather Channl now saying 1-3 here in North CT....


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 6, 2008)

It looks like we could get one to two inches of snow..but maybe a few of the snowbands will stall and we'll get more..just seeing a little snow will be great..and a snowpack keeps the temperatures even cooler..


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## JD (Dec 6, 2008)

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&location=default
I'm liking the lookd of this.  I think they are underreporting for the Greens.  I say 6 plus for central VT by Monday morning.


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## powderfreak (Dec 6, 2008)

JD said:


> http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&location=default
> I'm liking the lookd of this.  I think they are underreporting for the Greens.  I say 6 plus for central VT by Monday morning.



Some of that is virga and dry low levels have kept obs in the Ohio Valley in the "light" category.  Here's where its reaching the ground but keep in mind most of these are only seeing light snow with visibilities in the 2-5 mile range.  Also, most snowfall amounts today with this have been under 2" outside of lake enhancement.






This should start to fall apart somewhat as it crosses the Apps, and loses some energy to the developing coastal low.  I'd say a widespread dusting to 2" is likely for most areas across NY, VT, CT, RI, MA, NH, and ME tomorrow...there could be some higher 2-4" amounts across portions of the New England coast from Boston northward as bagginess in the pressure fields allow moisture to advect further west up there as the coastal takes over.  

With that said, 6+ is not out of the question for parts of VT and northern NH but it'll likely be due to upslope on Sunday evening/night rather than from the clipper.

-Scott


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 6, 2008)

Snowing here..this is going to be light and dry powder..nice little crystals..sticking to everything instantly..Stoke on top of Stoke!!!!!!.....tomorrow is going to be a good day to ski..no diggity..


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## Glenn (Dec 6, 2008)

Just starting here in CT. Sweet!


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## Greg (Dec 7, 2008)

Ended up with about an inch and a half. No biggie, but nice to see everything white again.


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## 2knees (Dec 7, 2008)

didnt even cover the grass here.  still didnt stop the kids from making me drag them around the block, on half snow, half grass, in their sled.  twice.  

i felt like an idiot.  the scrrraaaappppeee as we crossed the sidewalks and streets was painfully loud.


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## KingM (Dec 7, 2008)

Nothing up here. I was expecting to see an inch or two, hoping for three and was bummed by the reality.


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## gmcunni (Dec 7, 2008)

almost 3 inches at our house this morning.


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## Greg (Dec 7, 2008)

Snowing lightly again.


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## Glenn (Dec 7, 2008)

An inch or two of snow here. Seems to be more of a southerly storm. My buddy up in Easter Mass only got a dusting.


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## JD (Dec 7, 2008)

Snowing at the bush with a dusting down at 1:30.  I guess I got a little excited....


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 7, 2008)

Greg said:


> Ended up with about an inch and a half. No biggie, but nice to see everything white again.



same here..a few Flurries..it's cold enough that most of the snow is still around..our biggest snowfall of the season so far..


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## JD (Dec 7, 2008)

Duming right now, but it mught not last long....


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## powderfreak (Dec 7, 2008)

JD said:


> Duming right now, but it mught not last long....



Upslope has started.  It was nuking along the west slopes between Waterbury and Williston...1"/hr or higher.  We even got a quick inch in Burlington.


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## GrilledSteezeSandwich (Dec 7, 2008)

powderfreak said:


> Upslope has started.  It was nuking along the west slopes between Waterbury and Williston...1"/hr or higher.  We even got a quick inch in Burlington.



Serious Stoke!!!!


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## skiing is life (Dec 7, 2008)

two inches here and its still snowing lighty


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## JD (Dec 7, 2008)

Windy now too...Hard to tell if it's snowing or blowing.  Some seriously variable natural conditions tomorrow...


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## Johnskiismore (Dec 7, 2008)

Breezy here, snowing really light, we've received a half inch today


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## billski (Dec 7, 2008)

dust on toast...


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## tcharron (Dec 7, 2008)

All day long up at Waterville, it was like someone in the sky was shaking off the dust, glancing down, and giving a huge zerbert where it LOOKED like it could dump.  :-D


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## drjeff (Dec 7, 2008)

Looks to be close to 3" of pure blower here at Mount Snow, although with the wind, my guess is tommorrow it will ski like 0-12" depending on where the snow gets deposited.  One big plus, is the gusts of wind have definately decreased both in intensity and frequency with the last hour!  Temp now down to 13 degrees on my deck, light flurries still in the air also.


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## Justin10 (Dec 7, 2008)

Plymouth ended today with a decent dusting, maybe .5" max.  We miss most of the upslope though, I'm assuming (hoping) the higher peaks north of here got a bit more.


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## JD (Dec 8, 2008)

3 inches of blower.  That's hillarious!  Stowe calling 6-8" this A.M.


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## riverc0il (Dec 8, 2008)

Jay reported 4-6". Blower will be fun for those who can ski the trees today... but is not really going to help us out much in the base building department. Let's hope this week delivers with something more substantial.


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## danny p (Dec 8, 2008)

K.com reporting 11"!!


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## tcharron (Dec 8, 2008)

danny p said:


> K.com reporting 11"!!



And most guys report a SOLID 8".  :-D


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## JD (Dec 8, 2008)

Almost impossible to put a number on the amount of snow recieved abou 2000 ft yesterday.  An accurate report would be 0-15 inches.


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