# Late February dump?



## rocojerry (Feb 10, 2011)

Some of my usual sources don't have anything on the horizon, but maybe that means the monster is sleeping......     

I just asked the Magic 8 Ball -- will there be a big snowstorm late February?

'Absolutely!'

I followed up with specific questions, foot plus for VT? (no) foot plus for NH? (definately) foot plus for Maine? (yes) foot plus for Jay? (yes)

granted my sources aren't very scientific


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## drjeff (Feb 10, 2011)

One or two of the very long range models this last day or two have spun up a storm for Presidents week.  If it's still there on not just the couple of models that are showing it now, but also a few others early/mid next week, then it might be something to start placing some interest in.  But these long range models in particular have spun up literally hundreds of impressive looking storms over the years that never ended up materializing


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 10, 2011)

drjeff said:


> One or two of the very long range models this last day or two have spun up a storm for Presidents week.  If it's still there on not just the couple of models that are showing it now, but also a few others early/mid next week, then it might be something to start placing some interest in.  But these long range models in particular have spun up literally hundreds of impressive looking storms over the years that never ended up materializing



And sometimes they do materialize but take a terrible track :-x


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## Vortex (Feb 11, 2011)

It always snows on Nh Vacation week. This year its split up  more than normal.  So last Day of Feb through first week of March there will l be a big storm.


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## billski (Feb 20, 2011)

drjeff said:


> One or two of the very long range models this last day or two have spun up a storm for Presidents week.  If it's still there on not just the couple of models that are showing it now, but also a few others early/mid next week, then it might be something to start placing some interest in.  But these long range models in particular have spun up literally hundreds of impressive looking storms over the years that never ended up materializing



Looks like Holiday Valley, Cocaigne hills in NY and eastern PA are going to be the winners.  HV is looking at nearly a foot from tonight through Monday 1-21.


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## snoseek (Feb 20, 2011)

Bob R said:


> It always snows on Nh Vacation week. This year its split up  more than normal.  So last Day of Feb through first week of March there will l be a big storm.



yeah, I predict major dumpage 5-10 days from now


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## Masskier (Feb 21, 2011)

from the NWS

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EST MONDAY...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BOTH
BEGIN WITH RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS ON THURSDAY MORNING...SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE
COAST OF NY/NJ THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS CANADA THURSDAY...AND WAVE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE TROF MOVES THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI AREA ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY
NIGHT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GFS TAKES IT JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND THE ECMWF BRINGS IT JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY...THOUGH EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW IS STILL DIFFICULT TO PLACE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
OUR CWA WILL GET SOME PRECIP...JUST TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH AND
WHAT FORM OF PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF WITH THE MORE INLAND TRACK
BRINGS SOME WARMER AIR INTO OUR CWA...POSSIBLY BRINGING MIXED
PRECIP OR RAIN INTO THE MIX...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REGION
UNDER AN AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP IT ALL SNOW. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE A SMALLER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THEN THE MODELS AGAIN DIVERGE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS
ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS OUR AREA DRY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EITHER
WAY...BOTH MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUING ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.


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## rocojerry (Feb 24, 2011)

Hopefully this pans out nicely


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