# The Official 12/9 Storm Discussion Thread



## Zand (Dec 6, 2005)

This one's for real. :wink: 

Looks like this one should touch all of New England, even if it is just a few inches in the mountains. They're forecasting 3-6" for my area already, and maybe 1-2 feet in the Mid-Atlantic and Cape.


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## hammer (Dec 6, 2005)

Zand said:
			
		

> This one's for real. :wink:


How is this one different from today's storm?


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## Big Game (Dec 6, 2005)

I don't know....fool me once stoopid weather forecast, shame on you, fool me twice, ah...who am I kidding, I'll fall for the hype anytime all the time. Big Kahuna coming! I can feel it in my big toe!!!!!!


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## ctenidae (Dec 6, 2005)

Look at the tails on them cats- gonna be a big one for sure!


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## loafer89 (Dec 6, 2005)

The NWS forecast discussion is talking about 6"+ for Long Island on late thursday night into friday morning.


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## redalienx11 (Dec 6, 2005)

loafer89 said:
			
		

> The NWS forecast discussion is talking about 6"+ for Long Island on late thursday night into friday morning.



Sweet! Just wondering...where are you finding accumulation forecasts?


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## Greg (Dec 6, 2005)

You jinxed today's "storm", ya know...


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## salida (Dec 6, 2005)

Zand said:
			
		

> This one's for real. :wink:



I can't wait to ski on cape cod, those hills rock, honestly, the mountains snows on sat night/sunday will be alot more benefical to ski areas than the nor'easter that'll go 50 miles south of the NE benchmark for big snows


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## Tin Woodsman (Dec 6, 2005)

Unless you like to rock out at Yawgoo Valley, this thread is a waste of bandwidth.  This storm, like all others this year, will push further south and east than currently anticipated by some.  It would be more valuable to focus on the quasi-LES event and upper level trough passage unfolding tonight through tomorrow night.  That will drop FAR more snow in the mountains that matter than the synoptic system on Friday.


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## riverc0il (Dec 6, 2005)

snowing up here right now :beer:


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## ALLSKIING (Dec 6, 2005)

Looks like the skills are getting it also.


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## skibum1321 (Dec 7, 2005)

It really doesn't sound very promising according to weather underground. It says a 20% chance of snow. For some reason that just doesn't sound like it's going to do much for us. 
Just a thought, but maybe we should wait for a real storm to start a discussion on it. I could care less about an inch of snow here and there - it's just a nice surprise when I look at the snow report the next morning.


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## Greg (Dec 7, 2005)

skibum1321 said:
			
		

> Just a thought, but maybe we should wait for a real storm to start a discussion on it. I could care less about an inch of snow here and there - it's just a nice surprise when I look at the snow report the next morning.


Agreed. Let's please let either me or the mods start these "official storm discussion" threads. Or if a pre-storm discussion thread looks to be evolving into an imminent event, we'll change the title. The last couple of "official" threads have been hype and speculation rather than reports on an event as in years past.


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## Phildozer (Dec 7, 2005)

THANK YOU!

Enough with the "there's going to be a storm in 17 days" threads.


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## Marc (Dec 7, 2005)

Well, either way I was planning another trip to Mount Snow this weekend... so... if it snows on Friday, just another bonus.


Here's hoping!

 :beer:


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## highpeaksdrifter (Dec 7, 2005)

Phildozer said:
			
		

> THANK YOU!
> 
> Enough with the "there's going to be a storm in 17 days" threads.



I truly don't get this. If someone wants to start a thread "there's going to be a storm in 17 days" and some others want to read it why should anyone else care. It doesn't break any forum rules, flame wars, politics, etc. I'm foolish enough that I like to read long term forcasts, they at least give me hope. Then if I'm get let down later it's my problem and the problem of others who want to read them.

If you don't want to read it just don't read it. It's that simple. Control freaks gone wild, jeeze. :angry:


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## Greg (Dec 7, 2005)

highpeaksdrifter said:
			
		

> Control freaks gone wild, jeeze. :angry:


Hardly. I have no problem with folks starting threads to discuss a storm "prediction". I just want to discourage assigning the "official" title to it. Historically, the "Official xx/xx Storm Discussion Threads" were started by me or a mod and used to discuss an *imminent *storm as well as report the effects of it as it unfolds. If renaming someone's forecast thread to an "official" thread is warranted, we will do so.

What happened to Joshua by the way?


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## salida (Dec 7, 2005)

I know the mods nixed this thread, and I was a na sayer as well but as this storm gets closer its becoming far more interesting.

The models are starting to come in agreement with eacher other. With one model bringing the storm track as far north as the South RI and a few others bringing it about 75 miles south of there.  This would mean a mix for some of Southern New England that got in on the last one, but it would also bring more snow to the southern mountains of NH and VT.  Specifically, Killington across to Sunapee/Gunstock and south.  Possibly 6-10 inches when you factor the the cold air in that will make for fluffier snow (possibly more but that remains to be seen as the storm approaches).  The berkshires will certianly get hit.  This will be a quick mover and will play out basically from 9AM Friday until 3PM.  Look for Saturday to be a winner.

Sorry mods if this was no longer intended to be a storm thread, but I thought as possibilities arose it would be good to give people a heads up.

-Porter


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## riverc0il (Dec 7, 2005)

greg, that sounds great and thank you for jumping in with your thoughts.  i like the way things were done last year with official only being assigned to imminent threads as a way to obtain locailzed snow fall totals as they were occuring.  i have no objection to long term model tracking and analysis, but thing threads should be names such.

that said, what happened to the official storm thread for yesterday and jay peak getting over a foot of fresh!?!


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## Greg (Dec 7, 2005)

salida said:
			
		

> Sorry mods if this was no longer intended to be a storm thread, but I thought as possibilities arose it would be good to give people a heads up.


No worries. If this thing materializes, we'll use this thread to discuss it. My only gripe is the starting of these threads too early...


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## KingM (Dec 8, 2005)

It definitely sounds like the storm is coming. Accuweather is showing more aggressive snowfalls all the way into Vermont with a tantalizing note that it may yet strengthen further. It doesn't look like a huge storm, but it does look like a good several inches which should be enough to push places like Mad River Glen over the top and help the other Vermont resorts bump up their trail counts in a hurry.


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## salida (Dec 8, 2005)

I'll be at Okemo on Saturday... I'm looking for 6-10 inches of light fluffy snow, Orange Atomic Stomp Tele's with Garmont Syner-g tele boots...

-Porter


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## Treeliner (Dec 8, 2005)

Lookin' good!  :beer:


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## Greg (Dec 8, 2005)

Looks like Sundown of all places will be the big winner with 7-11"! If the roads are so bad tomorrow morning, that I can't make it to Concord/Sunapee, I'll hit the mighty Ski Sundown. Either way tomorrow is a powder day for me! Woohoo.
 :beer:


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## hammer (Dec 8, 2005)

Greg said:
			
		

> Looks like Sundown of all places will be the big winner with 7-11"! If the roads are so bad tomorrow morning, that I can't make it to Concord/Sunapee, I'll hit the mighty Ski Sundown. Either way tomorrow is a powder day for me! Woohoo.
> :beer:


Good timing on your trip...enjoy.


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## Catul (Dec 8, 2005)

Greg said:
			
		

> Looks like Sundown of all places will be the big winner with 7-11"! If the roads are so bad tomorrow morning, that I can't make it to Concord/Sunapee, I'll hit the mighty Ski Sundown. Either way tomorrow is a powder day for me! Woohoo.
> :beer:



Nice huh?!    I think I might skip work and just take my daughter to Sundown tomorrow (will almost certainly do so Saturday as well) - she's only 5 so we just stick to the Sunnyside Learning Area.


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## Greg (Dec 8, 2005)

Catul said:
			
		

> Nice huh?!    I think I might skip work and just take my daughter to Sundown tomorrow (will almost certainly do so Saturday as well) - she's only 5 so we just stick to the Sunnyside Learning Area.


Might be a little tricky getting some momentum over there in a foot of powder. Tomorrow may be a good day to bring her to the summit if she's ready for that. Tom's Treat is pretty mellow if she can handle loading/unloading one of the summit triples.


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## RossiSkier (Dec 8, 2005)

Just in from Mount Snow



> Good afternoon everyone and thanks for checking
> in with Mount Snow! This is Dan with your
> afternoon snow report for Thursday, December 8th.
> 
> ...


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## Birdman829 (Dec 8, 2005)

Yeah.  This storm is starting to look like it might not really do much of anything at the 'Loaf but that's OK.  I'm hoping the conditions stay bad late enough to keep some people home this weekend.


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## RossiSkier (Dec 8, 2005)

HERE COME DA BLUE!


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## Big Game (Dec 8, 2005)

RossiSkier said:
			
		

> HERE COME DA BLUE!



Oh, now aint' that a pretty sight. 
Watch the blue turn to white


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## redalienx11 (Dec 8, 2005)

I'll be at Mount Snow Saturday...$17 for me and maybe a foot of powder hmmm let me think...can't beat that!

Silver helmet, w/ lots of sticker, garmont synerG tele boots.


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## Catul (Dec 8, 2005)

Greg said:
			
		

> Might be a little tricky getting some momentum over there in a foot of powder. Tomorrow may be a good day to bring her to the summit if she's ready for that. Tom's Treat is pretty mellow if she can handle loading/unloading one of the summit triples.



Lol, funny to be talking about a FOOT of powder at Ski Sundown (or anywhere south of VT, for that matter).  Good idea on the summit, though I think that might be too long a run for her.  She's pretty happy just dealing with riding up the lift on Sensation and coming down that or Big Bend.  I need to get her to make some turns, she's not afraid of a little speed and I have to keep the leash on her to make sure she doesn't fly into someone


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## roark (Dec 8, 2005)

I'm seriously considering playing hooky tomorrow and heading over to Snow. Will be up at K Sat for the demos, too bad they likely won't get much from this system.


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## ctenidae (Dec 8, 2005)

Now it's starting to look like an official storm thread.

The switch for Crappuweather's forecast since this morning makes Sunapee look good.


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## SKIQUATTRO (Dec 8, 2005)

now only 2-4 for Long Island,,,,NOOOOOOO need more!!!


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## Greg (Dec 8, 2005)

It's official. It's a powder day at the *mighty Ski Sundown* for me tomorrow... :lol:


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## Mark_151 (Dec 8, 2005)

Over to Wachusett tomorrow digustingly early before the lifts turn to steal freshies, then riding the lifts for a few hours, then heading up to Jay for the Tele Fest Saturday.  
 :beer:  :beer:  :beer:  :beer:  :beer:  :beer:


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## salida (Dec 8, 2005)

From Matt Noyes at NECN:

"Initial snow under warm advection may be on the light side the first half of Friday morning, but snow should fall in earnest from mid-morning to mid-afternoon. During this time frame, upward vertical motion goes through the roof as warm advection is maximized to the north of the new developing low and mid-level centers. New low should develop off Central NJ coastline early Friday and will be a fast mover as it moves NE and crosses almost directly over benchmark during the day Friday. While the system is indeed progressive, there are two tremendously impressive facets to it: one is the energy and the other is the moisture. The vorticity maximum moving east is closing off as it moves out of the Eastern Great Lakes, and while it is neutrally tilted, it's packing over 30 units of absolute vorticity, and this would be enough to generate whiteout conditions on its own! Add to this a steady stream of Pacific, Gulf and eventually Atlantic moisture, and 1-2" per hour snows are certainly well within reason from mid-morning to mid-afternoon. I still think the NAM is too wound up and too far north, but the GFS has been underdone on QPF amounts and has just now caught up in the 12Z run. No model is accurately placing the precipitation shield for Friday - a benchmark storm will produce the heaviest swath of precip either side of the MA Turnpike. Additionally, the cold and dry arctic air in place today is a huge factor. The ocean temps are in the mid 40's and this is something I've discussed at length in these discussions regarding previous events. I do believe the warm ocean is going to play a significant role again in this storm, but with varying results. Along the Cape and Islands this warm air should allow for a changeover to rain during the morning. Along the South Coast of Massachusetts, ratios should be quite low...especially from midday onward as the onshore flow really has a chance to do its dirty work and we mix with rain at immediate coastal locales. This will result in a coastal front developing inland about 20 miles from the South Coast of MA, and it could be a rather fierce front, too, with dewpoints this afternoon running in the single digits. This is some dense, dry, cold arctic air and it's going to be very difficult to dislodge the airmass, so instead I'd expect a strong coastal front to develop, with heavy snow falling on the cold side of this frontal boundary, especially given the lift already present that was described above. The combination of this low level forcing with upper level dynamic forcing could bring bands of snow *exceeding 2" per hour to interior Eastern MA*, and the atmosphere is unstable enough for moist slantwise convection to form in this strongly frontogenetic environment. The result should be a relatively short-lived storm, but also a very intense one, and that's my reasoning for going with 12"+ for most of interior Southern NewEng (see maps above). I went with this from the very first map early this morning, because I saw good agreement among the models on a solid 1" of QPF - and then I adjusted the placement based on the synoptic solution of a benchmark low discussed here the past couple of days. *Truth be told, I wanted to go 12-18" but I knew the public would focus only on the 18, and when most areas were below that*, the complaints would come rolling in. Again, the idea here is that the remarkable combo of low level and upper level dynamics should offset the short duration of the storm, and this could be remembered as one of the most intense, short storms to hit Southern New England in recent memory"

-Porter


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## Phildozer (Dec 8, 2005)

"Again, the idea here is that the remarkable combo of low level and upper level dynamics should offset the short duration of the storm, and this could be remembered as one of the most intense, short storms to hit Southern New England in recent memory"



That's better than anything written in Penhouse Forum....


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## Greg (Dec 9, 2005)

Quickly approaching 3" here already. Leaving for the mountain in a few...


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## Vortex (Dec 9, 2005)

Well its no longer a potential storm, Offically a storm snowing like crazy in bost.  Matt is funny about not being able to post 18 possible inches.  No atttitude around here.  lol


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## frozencorn (Dec 9, 2005)

Boards in the car for early morning ride to VT....


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## mattchuck2 (Dec 9, 2005)

> That's better than anything written in Penhouse Forum....



Haha, "I never thought it would happen to me . . . "


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## Marc (Dec 9, 2005)

Stuck in work, but no bother.  I'll but up at Snow tomorrow bright and early.



I had quite the enjoyable commute this morning.  Fun times with my e brake.


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## teachski (Dec 9, 2005)

Hahahahaha   I didn't have to work today! Snowing at about an inch and a half an hour here right now.

I stayed home on Monday because of my furnace.  

Got to love the short week!


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## JimG. (Dec 9, 2005)

Marc said:
			
		

> Stuck in work, but no bother.  I'll but up at Snow tomorrow bright and early.
> 
> 
> 
> I had quite the enjoyable commute this morning.  Fun times with my e brake.



My ride in wasn't bad...little traffic because about 2/3 of the cars I saw were off the road in ditches.

Where do most drivers get their licenses? I guess alot of folks still eat Cracker Jacks.

Biggest problem was my car kept trying to hijack me up to Hunter to go skiing; like a moron I still went to work.


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## Marc (Dec 9, 2005)

JimG. said:
			
		

> Marc said:
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> 
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Heh, yeah, my car had a definite pull towards the Mount Snow direction this morning, or maybe it was my arms.


Half my commute is in CT and half is in RI.  People in my part of CT are bad at driving in the snow but people in RI are bad at driving in perfect conditions.  Put them in snow and you'll have fewer collisions at a bumper car ride.

But snows and AWD makes for easy avoidance.


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## dmo (Dec 9, 2005)

Sigh.

Stuck at work myself, but will be making the trek to the Mount Snow area this evening. I'm supposed to be meeting folks at Killington tomorrow AM instead of MS, but depending on the way this all turns out, I may be skipping out on that and staying at Mount Snow.


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## ALLSKIING (Dec 9, 2005)

Looks like the skills got 4-6 inches. I see blue ski on the web cam.


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## Paul (Dec 9, 2005)

Stuck at home with a puking 5 yr. old. At least work can be blown-off for a few turns...


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## JimG. (Dec 9, 2005)

ALLSKIING said:
			
		

> Looks like the skills got 4-6 inches. I see blue ski on the web cam.



Looks like snow has ended up at Hunter...doesn't look like they got the 6-9" expected, more like 5-7".

Snow over here in White Plains, NY too. Blue skies are coming.

Tomorrow is going to ROCK!


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## ALLSKIING (Dec 9, 2005)

JimG. said:
			
		

> ALLSKIING said:
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Should be the best conditions of the year.


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## Zand (Dec 9, 2005)

7" here so far, falling at 1-2" an hour and forecasted to stay that way for 3-4 more hours.


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## mattchuck2 (Dec 9, 2005)

Stopped Snowing in Albany . . . Looks like Mass (maybe southern NH and southern ME?) is taking the brunt of the Storm.

I'll still be at Gore tomorrow.


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## Catul (Dec 9, 2005)

Still coming down hard here (NW CT) at about 1 - 1.5" an hour, got about 10-12" on the deck already.  Ski Sundown was great powder this morning!


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## ALLSKIING (Dec 9, 2005)

Catul said:
			
		

> Still coming down hard here (NW CT) at about 1 - 1.5" an hour, got about 10-12" on the deck already.  Ski Sundown was great powder this morning!


10 to 12 inches :blink: I thought they were calling for only 6 or so.


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## JimG. (Dec 9, 2005)

CT is going to be the big winner in this event...my buddy in Brookfield reports 10" on his deck and it's still snowing.


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## Zand (Dec 9, 2005)

Central MA, SW NH will be the winner with 1'+ almost everywhere. We have almost 8" and still 2-3 hours to go.


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## ALLSKIING (Dec 9, 2005)

The wind is unreal on the Island. Trees going down..Power flickering..Crazy


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## ctenidae (Dec 9, 2005)

It's currently raining in Boston


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## redalienx11 (Dec 9, 2005)

*Pics*

Exit 18 off the thruway reporting....

I got about a foot of fluffy light pow. Blue skies and sun now, but temps are still cold (=no meltage). Heading up to mount snow tommorow.....

Oh..heres some pics... New Paltz, NY


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## Big Game (Dec 9, 2005)

switched to rain breifly in Wallingford (10 minute N of New Haven) now back to snow and heavy winds


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## dmo (Dec 9, 2005)

Mount Snow is reporting 8" as of noon and still coming...


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## LineSki15 (Dec 9, 2005)

Wow conditions are going to be amazing tomorrow huh?
You guys think it will be crazily crowded on the slopes tomorrow.  who cares right?


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## JimG. (Dec 9, 2005)

Hunter reporting 8" also, 8" at the base and "more up top". 8" seems like a fair estimation of total snowfall.

Also, snow has stopped.


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## Marc (Dec 9, 2005)

ctenidae said:
			
		

> It's currently raining in Boston



Don't rain on everyone's snow parade.  Go find some bourbon.  And that is an order!

 :dunce: 



About 8" in NW RI (where I work) and still snowing at a good clip with a bit of sleet mixed in.


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## ctenidae (Dec 9, 2005)

Would that I could, Marc.

Fully expected some rain this afternoon, though. Darn that pesky warm ocean! Ought to bode well for the wountains, though, as the winds wrap around.


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## Catul (Dec 9, 2005)

ALLSKIING said:
			
		

> Catul said:
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Just came in from snowblowing/shoveling - measured it at 10", and it was still going while I was blowing; about done now, I'd estimate between 11"-12" for sure up here, nice!


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## Zand (Dec 9, 2005)

Snow's coming down at about 2" an hour and the winds have suddenly picked up to about 30 MPH. I can't see the road 100 feet from my house. Snow's just about up to 10" and we've got another hour or two to go.


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## ski_resort_observer (Dec 9, 2005)

9" of the dry white fluffy stuff here on the coast of Maine. My son headed to Someday Bigger early this morning, should be a great a great day.


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## ctenidae (Dec 9, 2005)

It's back to snow again in Boston. So heavy, I can't see 1/4 of a mile across the river. Crazy.
Heavy, wet rain/snow mix- mostly snow. Glad I don't have to drive in it.


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## Zand (Dec 9, 2005)

13" here in Leicester currently. Some drifts are up over 2 1/2'. Snow has lightened up some, but still looking at another few inches before all is said and done. Visibility is currently about 1/2 mile here. 

To measure big snows, I usee these 2 pipes and wellhead sticking out of the lawn. The pipes are a foot high and the well is a foot and a half. The pipes are completely buried and the wellhead is visible, but a few more inches will take care of it as well. 

I guess NECN was right when they said 12-18" for our area instead of 6-10" like everyone else.


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## bvibert (Dec 9, 2005)

We got at least 12" here in NW CT!  :beer:  Id say it was falling at a rate of at least 2" an hour for a while.


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## ChileMass (Dec 9, 2005)

Hey - someone just turned off the switch - it has been DUMPING here for the last 3-4 hours, but it just stopped in the last 5 minutes.  Weird. It ws coming down at least 2 inches per hour for a while.  

Went out a few minutes ago and unfortunately it look slike the last few inches were very heavy wet stuff after 6-8 inches of light stuff before.  I'm estimating a solid foot of snow here just east of Worcester......


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## dmc (Dec 9, 2005)

JimG. said:
			
		

> Hunter reporting 8" also, 8" at the base and "more up top". 8" seems like a fair estimation of total snowfall.
> 
> Also, snow has stopped.



It was an awesome day - easily 8" - drifts over the knee - my friend Lora stands a little over 5 foot and she kept idssapearing...  
Clairs was the early call..  And it did not dissapoint...

The whole Eastside was great!...  Lots of snow...
Ask me about the skiing on "reserved trails" when I see you tomorrow...   I think i need a tune now...

I bet Hunter is at 100% in a week...


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## JimG. (Dec 9, 2005)

dmc said:
			
		

> JimG. said:
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Nice! I'm very pumped up for tomorrow. I'll be there early for an 8:30 chair.


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## RISkier (Dec 9, 2005)

ctenidae said:
			
		

> It's back to snow again in Boston. So heavy, I can't see 1/4 of a mile across the river. Crazy.
> Heavy, wet rain/snow mix- mostly snow. Glad I don't have to drive in it.



Well, I did drive in it.  I work in Providence, thought it was all over and then it got very intense this afternoon.  Snow mixed into the rain and was packed by traffic into pure ice.  I've not seen that part of I95 that icy.  We probably only had 3-4" inchs here, maybe not that, but the roads...  Took almost 2.5 hours to get home (24 miles), felt like I flying in places.  Like Dorothy says, there's no place like home.


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## Greg (Dec 9, 2005)

bvibert said:
			
		

> We got at least 12" here in NW CT!  :beer:  Id say it was falling at a rate of at least 2" an hour for a while.


Indeed. A solid 12" here. Amazing day, eh. Bri? Here's the *Sundown trip report*.

Imagine if this sucker moved a bit slower?


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## highpeaksdrifter (Dec 9, 2005)

That Avatar shot is great.  :beer:


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## Zand (Dec 9, 2005)

Well, one of the most "hellish" snowstorms, to quote Pete Bouchard, is over. Some spots recieved 70 MPH winds and snowfall rates of 3-6" AN HOUR. The official total at Worcester was 12.8" and we have 14" at my house. Jackpot was in Boxford, MA, who picked up 19". There are drifts up to my chest in my driveway. 

Sunday, expect some snow showers with another Nor'Easter by the end of next week.


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## Treeliner (Dec 11, 2005)

Yeah, I had waaay too much fun on Saturday (opening day) at Catamount.


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## bvibert (Dec 12, 2005)

Greg said:
			
		

> bvibert said:
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Definitely an awesome day!   One of my best on skis.


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