# November 1? *Drumbeats*



## Boston Bulldog (Oct 26, 2014)

The models are all over the place, that's for sure. One thing is for certain, however, we have a very interesting pattern setting up. A Coastal Storm is on the models' radar, and this time, NNE may see some flakes.

Nothing is set in stone right now, the remnants of Hurricane Ana are messing with the models right now so funky solutions are being put out, but the "Key Ingredients" for a stream phase will be in play by the end of the month.

This is just something to speculate on. If Ana cooperates, there may be a wintry storm for the Northern Greens and Maine.


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## Tin (Oct 26, 2014)

Either way this is going to screw things up because despite the low temps the humidity will be too high to make snow and if they did get snow in the Greens or Maine it wouldn't be enough to open (especially looking at a few days in the 50s and rain the following week). Would rather just avoid the system and high humidity so K and SR can start blowing snow.


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## Boston Bulldog (Oct 26, 2014)

Also cheers everyone! I know I'm excited for another winter of storm watching!


ETA: Nice blocking signal


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 26, 2014)

Tin said:


> Either way this is going to screw things up because despite the low temps the humidity will be too high to make snow and if they did get snow in the Greens or Maine it wouldn't be enough to open (especially looking at a few days in the 50s and rain the following week). Would rather just avoid the system and high humidity so K and SR can start blowing snow.



Yeah, these late October and early November events dont excite me, because they all just melt anyway.


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## Cannonball (Oct 27, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yeah, these late October and early November events dont excite me, because they all just melt anyway.



All snow just melts anyway. The whole trick to this skiing thing is to slide on it before that happens. This time of year you just have to act a little faster.


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## Nick (Oct 27, 2014)

http://www.necn.com/weather/stories/Tricky-Halloween-Forecast-280473522.html?3


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## Not Sure (Oct 27, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> All snow just melts anyway. The whole trick to this skiing thing is to slide on it before that happens. This time of year you just have to act a little faster.



And have a pair of rock skis


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## Boston Bulldog (Oct 27, 2014)

Models are coming into focus, and there is indeed a storm. Some runs have brought snow into the NW metro area of Boston!


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## Boston Bulldog (Oct 28, 2014)

No lie... here is the Burlington discussion on the storm.

Given recent trends for systems to become more cutoff and closed...for prevailing westerly follow...and models showing a developing/amplifying ridge across the Central Plains...will trend toward the European model (ecmwf) solution. This supports chance/likely probability of precipitation late Friday night into Saturday...as 850 to 500mb moisture associated with developing trough increases from west to east across our region. Additional precipitation...mainly in the form of snow would be likely across our central/eastern section Sat night into Sunday...with a sharp precipitation/accumulation gradient expected. Very limited quantitative precipitation forecast/snow would occur along and west of the cpv if the European model (ecmwf) solution verified...with some upslope enhancement for the western slopes possible. Prognosticated 850 mb temperatures drop between -8 and -10c...while 925mb temperatures are <0c by 00z Sunday with soundings showing the freezing level between 200 and 400 feet...supporting snow in the valleys away from Lake Champlain. Given warm ground temperatures and marginal bl profiles...not expecting much accumulation in the slv/cpv. Temperatures will struggle in the 30s Sat/Sunday in the valleys with brisk north winds. If you have plans in the mountains this weekend...plan for middle winter conditions...with temperatures only in the teens and 20s with gusty northwest winds...and accumulating snow...especially Sat into Sunday. *Too early for accumulations but I would have the rock skis on standby this weekend...if you are looking for the 1st turns of the season along The Spine of the Green Mountains from Jay Peak to Mansfield to Killington. *


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## mriceyman (Oct 28, 2014)

Honestly the whole warm ground thing i believe is a big myth. Last year in jersey( maybe 2 years ago) we had no prolonged cold and an 78* day before a 6+" snowfall accumulating on grass and pavement. If it gets cold enough (below 30 or so) and is snowing hard enough it will stick.  


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## Boston Bulldog (Oct 28, 2014)

EURO ensembles say snow all the way to Brockton Mass and solid snows in Ski Country.


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## St. Bear (Oct 28, 2014)

mriceyman said:


> Honestly the whole warm ground thing i believe is a big myth. Last year in jersey( maybe 2 years ago) we had no prolonged cold and an 78* day before a 6+" snowfall accumulating on grass and pavement. If it gets cold enough (below 30 or so) and is snowing hard enough it will stick.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



It'll stick, sure, but a cold ground would mean that 6+" could've easily been 10+".


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 28, 2014)

St. Bear said:


> It'll stick, sure, but a cold ground would mean that 6+" could've easily been 10+".



Right.  It's a battle, and eventually the snow wins if there's enough of it.  But some of the snow "dies" to cool the ground.


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 28, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> EURO ensembles say snow all the way to Brockton Mass and solid snows in Ski Country.



Well that's a pretty significant change.  I havent paid any attention to this, does the Canuck look similar?


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## Boston Bulldog (Oct 28, 2014)

Canuck says whiff OTS, but it deepens down to 980mb south of Nova Scotia.


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## Quietman (Oct 28, 2014)

12Z GFS is saying the same thing pretty much.


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## Puck it (Oct 28, 2014)

I am thinking a midweek opening like Wed or Thurs.


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## Cannonball (Oct 28, 2014)

If there is >3" within 30 minutes of Lincoln I'll be earning turns. Anyone game to join me?


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## Savemeasammy (Oct 28, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> If there is >3" within 30 minutes of Lincoln I'll be earning turns. Anyone game to join me?



I wonder if MadMadWorld would let me borrow his skis? 


Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone mobile app


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## Puck it (Oct 28, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> If there is >3" within 30 minutes of Lincoln I'll be earning turns. Anyone game to join me?


I will let you know.


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 28, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Canuck says whiff OTS, but it deepens down to 980mb south of Nova Scotia.





Quietman said:


> 12Z GFS is saying the same thing pretty much.



It's interesting to me that the GFS agrees with the Euro, but the Canadian doesn't agree.


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 28, 2014)

Is this too minor to bother sharing a map for?  Meh, figure I'll post it here in case people are interested.  From Bastardi's offspring.


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## Savemeasammy (Oct 28, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Is this too minor to bother sharing a map for?



Seriously?  We've been waiting all friggin' summer to see a snow map...!  


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## mishka (Oct 28, 2014)

Savemeasammy said:


> Seriously?  We've been waiting all friggin' summer to see a snow map...!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone mobile app



damn right:lol:


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## Not Sure (Oct 28, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Is this too minor to bother sharing a map for?  Meh, figure I'll post it here in case people are interested.  From Bastardi's offspring.



Had to look twice..thats a blue arrow running north of Philly not more snow....seems a little more realistic now.


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## ss20 (Oct 28, 2014)

Savemeasammy said:


> Seriously?  We've been waiting all friggin' summer to see a snow map...!
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone mobile app



Same here!  There is no storm "too minor" after no snow for 7 months!


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## yeggous (Oct 28, 2014)

ss20 said:


> Same here!  There is no storm "too minor" after no snow for 7 months!



7 months? Try 6. It was snowing with fresh accumulation on my last day of the season at Wildcat on the third weekend in April.


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## hammer (Oct 29, 2014)

OK, remember what happened to the last season that had a big snowfall around the same time?  Bunch of snow on trees, power outages, a whole mess, followed by one of the worst seasons weather-wise for skiing in years.

Realize that everyone is impatient to get the season started but I don't want that again.


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## Puck it (Oct 29, 2014)

hammer said:


> OK, remember what happened to the last season that had a big snowfall around the same time? Bunch of snow on trees, power outages, a whole mess, followed by one of the worst seasons weather-wise for skiing in years.
> 
> Realize that everyone is impatient to get the season started but I don't want that again.


  Huh!!!!!


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## Not Sure (Oct 29, 2014)

Puck it said:


> Huh!!!!!



Think analog 2011


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## Cannonball (Oct 29, 2014)

hammer said:


> OK, remember what happened to the last season that had a big snowfall around the same time?  Bunch of snow on trees, power outages, a whole mess, followed by one of the worst seasons weather-wise for skiing in years.
> 
> Realize that everyone is impatient to get the season started but I don't want that again.



I have a significantly different recollection of last season. I'd take a repeat in a second.


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## yeggous (Oct 29, 2014)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Think analog 2011



We don't need your negative vibes here.


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## Puck it (Oct 29, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> I have a significantly different recollection of last season. I'd take a repeat in a second.




Me too on both.  Maybe he did not see last year at the end.


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## Puck it (Oct 29, 2014)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Think analog 2011


  I think it was 2012 with the October storm.


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## twinplanx (Oct 29, 2014)

They have begun to mention snow in the forecast down here and the haters have been vocal. Glad I have AZ to find solace.

Sent from my SCH-S735C using Tapatalk


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## from_the_NEK (Oct 29, 2014)

WTF, the snow storm has moved south to the West Virginia region.


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## hammer (Oct 29, 2014)

hammer said:


> OK, remember what happened to the last season that had a big snowfall around the same time?  Bunch of snow on trees, power outages, a whole mess, followed by one of the worst seasons weather-wise for skiing in years.
> 
> Realize that everyone is impatient to get the season started but I don't want that again.


Since everyone's memory is a bit fuzzy this is the one I'm mentioning:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Halloween_nor'easter

Bunches of snow with leaves still on the trees makes for a mess.  Still thought it was neat until I got tired of skidding on manmade hardpack later that season.


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## Boston Bulldog (Oct 29, 2014)

Bad trends today. The models don't think I'll get it's act together, therefore it won't make it up the coast.


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## Cannonball (Oct 29, 2014)

hammer said:


> Since everyone's memory is a bit fuzzy this is the one I'm mentioning:
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Halloween_nor'easter
> 
> Bunches of snow with leaves still on the trees makes for a mess.  Still thought it was neat until I got tired of skidding on manmade hardpack later that season.



Pretty sure that October storm had absolutely nothing to do with the season that followed. 

Last season I was very happy to be getting October turns, November freshies, and a great late season. And I'm positive that the early stuff had no influence on the late stuff. 

So, yes I'm very anxious for the earliest snow we can get our skis on. Because I know it's only superstition that considers it a bad omen for the season.


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## slatham (Oct 29, 2014)

The famous Halloween storm of 2011 in fact had no bearing on the terrible winter that followed. But for us who are superstitious, having so much snow across such a wide area, away from the mountains, was a bad omen. We had a dusting on Long Island for gods sake! Kiss of death....

For those wanting to ski, this storm never had the potential to in-and-of-itself allow areas to open. And with a warm up next week, all but the highest peaks would have gone back to grass. But still, seeing snow this time of year does help the mood!

What we need is a pattern change to allow not only colder air to filter south, but to remain in place. We have been above normal this fall, as many forecasted, and it looks to stay that way, this weekends cold notwithstanding. But will it turn in a few weeks? That is the real question. We need to watch for signs this happening.


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## Cannonball (Oct 29, 2014)

slatham said:


> The famous Halloween storm of 2011 in fact had no bearing on the terrible winter that followed. But for us who are superstitious, having so much snow across such a wide area, away from the mountains, was a bad omen. We had a dusting on Long Island for gods sake! Kiss of death....
> 
> For those wanting to ski, this storm never had the potential to in-and-of-itself allow areas to open.



Well do a little dance or eat a black cat or something if superstition is your thing.  (I think you're supposed to believe in it to make it work, so I won't bother). But it can't hurt so go for it!

I couldn't care less about areas opening now. I just want to ski!!!  I'll take anything!


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## Puck it (Oct 29, 2014)

Cannonball said:


> Well do a little dance or eat a black cat or something if superstition is your thing.  (I think you're supposed to believe in it to make it work, so I won't bother). But it can't hurt so go for it!
> 
> I couldn't care less about areas opening now. I just want to ski!!!  I'll take anything!



Take it easy, Francis!


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## Not Sure (Oct 29, 2014)

Puck it said:


> I think it was 2012 with the October storm.



Nope 2011


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## Not Sure (Oct 29, 2014)

yeggous said:


> We don't need your negative vibes here.



Then I wont talk about all the stink bugs I've seen , Although the ladybugs have started to appear.
(reference to earlier personal fokelore predicter) Last year lady bugs galore, Crappy snow years stink bugs.


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## Boston Bulldog (Oct 29, 2014)

Honestly, the storm going south may be a good thing in the long run. When the models were suggesting that the storm would "bomb-out", that buckle in the flow would usher in _very_ warm air for the following week. By warm air, I'm talking a week of... possibly high 60's to low 70's for highs and lows not even sniffing freezing. In fact, some guidance was suggesting that the warm up could last through mid-month.

Now since the storm is trending south, models are in agreement that the pattern will remain relatively normal; small warm up here, small cold shot there. This bodes well for ski areas, as this is a much better pattern for snowmaking than the first solution, a gross understatement. That hypothetical warm up that a strong storm could have helped usher in was modeled to last at least through Mid November, a disaster for ski areas trying to open up early.:-o. 

A storm is always exciting, but cold weather for snowmaking is a priority right now, and this storm staying away would definitely help the resorts fire up the guns sooner rather than later.


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## 〽❄❅ (Oct 29, 2014)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> Then I wont talk about all the stink bugs I've seen , Although the ladybugs have started to appear.
> (reference to earlier personal fokelore predicter) Last year lady bugs galore, Crappy snow years stink bugs.


Really...not having a stink bug problem here, hiked the Appalachian trail Pinnacle and Pulpit Saturday and at one point we had lady bugs pelt down on us, a fricken squadron of them like i've not seen before! Was talking about cross-country skiing at the time too...


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## Not Sure (Oct 29, 2014)

Easy come eazy go


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## catsup948 (Oct 29, 2014)

hammer said:


> Since everyone's memory is a bit fuzzy this is the one I'm mentioning:
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Halloween_nor'easter
> 
> Bunches of snow with leaves still on the trees makes for a mess.  Still thought it was neat until I got tired of skidding on manmade hardpack later that season.



Snow was about 30 inches at the top of berkshire east the next morning.  It was almost too much to get speed going.  Thought we were in for a real epic winter after that.  Boy were we not in for an epic winter after that!


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## yeggous (Oct 30, 2014)

I keep checking the models and can't quite decide what to expect from snowmaking production during this cold snap. There is a case to be made on both sides. I am trying to get a handle on whether it is worth staying up in North Conway for Monday and Tuesday in hopes of seeing some skiing.


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## Tin (Oct 30, 2014)

Midweek next week would put a dent in anything they blow. Looking at 50 degrees and rain. They might not start until the following sadly.


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## Puck it (Oct 30, 2014)

Tin said:


> Midweek next week would put a dent in anything they blow. Looking at 50 degrees and rain. They might not start until the following sadly.


  At the 3360 level of NRT, the temps are okay in the low 40's but the problem is the night time temps are only in the mid 30's.  That is a problem.  They can't blow at night to recover the loss.


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## Tin (Oct 30, 2014)

Puck it said:


> At the 3360 level of NRT, the temps are okay in the low 40's but the problem is the night time temps are only in the mid 30's.  That is a problem.  They can't blow at night to recover the loss.




Just bad all around. Maybe some inversion at what I was looking at for K. Things don't look horrible for Wildcat though if they would want to break in those new guns and pipe. Much colder, 1-3" for Saturday and upper 30s mid week. They could blow starting Saturday night and go until Monday night.


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 30, 2014)

My bet is k will at least blow into piles to get started this weekend. I'd be shocked if they didn't start.


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## Puck it (Oct 30, 2014)

Guns are set up on Reason. Sorry for the pic being bad. I had snap a pic of my iPad screen with iPhone since works firewall will load the webcams at Killington.  I am getting that tingle.


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## ALLSKIING (Oct 30, 2014)

Nice!


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## Boston Bulldog (Oct 30, 2014)

And now the GFS blows the storm up into Warning criteria snows in ski country

I am perplexed by this storm right now.


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## slatham (Oct 30, 2014)

Joe Bastardi has not given up on this storm being a good snow (if not more) in the NE mountains. The models have started trending west. Tonight's 0z runs of the euro and gfs will be interesting to see if the trend, which really shows in 18z gfs, continues and is agreed by both or not.

Of particular note - this time last week the models had a huge RIDGE over the NE with warm temps for this weekend. They are not handling the pattern well. Will the warm ups we see on the models over the next 2 weeks be over done and fade with time?


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## slatham (Oct 30, 2014)

Joe Bastardi has not given up on this storm being a good snow (if not more) in the NE mountains. The models have started trending west. Tonight's 0z runs of the euro and gfs will be interesting to see if the trend, which really shows in 18z gfs, continues and is agreed by both or not.

Of particular note - this time last week the models had a huge RIDGE over the NE with warm temps for this weekend. They are not handling the pattern well. Will the warm ups we see on the models over the next 2 weeks be over done and fade with time?


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## Cannonball (Oct 30, 2014)

This storm is a good omen and lesson for the rest of the entire coming season. It may work out, it may not... Be ready just in case!


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## ScottySkis (Oct 30, 2014)

New slightly used Fisher Watea s  skis coming in the mail in a few days. I can use my old rock skis,  . Powder day in Roxbury again  like a few years ago. Please let it snow for all the mountains in NE(north east) thanks ski and snowboarding gods.


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## Tin (Oct 31, 2014)

The hell happened? Now seeing 8-10" for Wildcat and SR. A foot for the Loaf and Saddleback. Down east is going to get dumped on.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 31, 2014)

Drove by mt Jefferson in down east Maine on Wednesday.  Solid 400 vert of gnar to enjoy that snow.


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## Smellytele (Oct 31, 2014)

What sucks is it will warm up mid week with chances of r@!n again.


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## deadheadskier (Oct 31, 2014)

What would be perfect actually is if it warmed up just for a half day, rained a little and then got super cold creating a frozen slab/base to build on.  Maybe we'll get lucky and the temps will trend down a little to preserve some of this snow.


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## BenedictGomez (Oct 31, 2014)

Smellytele said:


> What sucks is it will warm up mid week with chances of r@!n again.



That's why I'm 90% meh on this.  November is going to be an average to slightly warm month until mid month anyway.

And because I love maps....


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## slatham (Oct 31, 2014)

Wow, not even November and I'm already stressing over a storm. Gonna be a long winter (I hope).


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## Tin (Nov 1, 2014)

Taunton ' s NWS FB mentions this system ending as snow but they are not saying much else yet.


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## abc (Nov 1, 2014)

As long as it doesn't affect us on the low land, I'm happy. 

I have surgery Tuesday, in time for me to recover by the time the season REALLY gets going. The last thing I need is a storm to screw it up (knock out power) and got it postponed!!! 

Sent the frigging snow up north, way way up north!!!


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## bigbog (Nov 2, 2014)

Ditto on your aim *abc*...Good Luck with the surgery!
Putting some RR_tracks on the backyahd.....


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## deadheadskier (Nov 2, 2014)

dumping at Camden Snowbowl

http://www.camdensnowbowl.com/web-cam


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## deadheadskier (Nov 2, 2014)

21" reported so far in Cary, ME.


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## skiNEwhere (Nov 2, 2014)

That's crazy. I wonder how much snow the big rock ski area has received, it's only about 40 miles north of Cary.


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## bigbog (Nov 3, 2014)

Little Big Rock's Opening Day _was_ scheduled for Dec 13, wonder if they'll be a little more ready to open earlier than scheduled... 
Manky stuff, ~11", here in Bangor but it _HAS_ to be better with a little elevation.....   Got on the Blizzards and glided/traversed around the yahd yesterday;-)....what a great feeling.
Looks like rain for the end of the week, but fingers crossed for the Green Mtns...
Have a big portion of a maple in the yahd that came off yesterday....~25% fewer leaves...hope all the snow and rain bring em' all down...


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## Not Sure (Nov 10, 2014)




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