# 2/12 storm speculation



## gladerider (Feb 6, 2014)

Just heard that next Wednesday storm is worth speculating. So a separate thread. 

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## Tin (Feb 6, 2014)

Noticed this as well. Need something since Sunday's storm is out. I want a powder day at Magic.


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## flightschool (Feb 6, 2014)

That would be great, have trip to sugarbush booked 2/15-17


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## Smellytele (Feb 6, 2014)

Tin said:


> Noticed this as well. Need something since Sunday's storm is out. I want a powder day at Magic.



I am supposed to be skiing at Magic 2/16 and 17 so bring it on.


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## moresnow (Feb 6, 2014)

Sounds good to me.

http://www.skitheeast.net/ste-snowcast-2-5-14-l-special-storm-edition-and-long-range/


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 6, 2014)

I'm really getting sick of social media weather sites cherry-picking whichever is the "best" looking model and then telling people there's a storm coming to generate web hits and marketing dollars.


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## catsup948 (Feb 6, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'm really getting sick of social media weather sites cherry-picking whichever is the "best" looking model and then telling people there's a storm coming to generate web hits and marketing dollars.



I'm with you.   Late next week does have some strong signals.   Everything is so far out though.  Remember Monday was the blizzard of 2014 three days ago now it's 1-3 inches or nothing.

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## billski (Feb 6, 2014)

look at the black line. Just go ski.


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## drjeff (Feb 6, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> I'm really getting sick of social media weather sites cherry-picking whichever is the "best" looking model and then telling people there's a storm coming to generate web hits and marketing dollars.



If the number of "storm of the centuries" that appear on 7-10 day out model runs actually came to be, we'd be calling them "storm of the week" instead   :lol:

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## Wavewheeler (Feb 6, 2014)

A storm late Wednesday night would be PERFECT. Work would be done and I'll go someplace on Thursday. Maybe Camelback or try Belleayre. 

Yeah, Sunday looks pretty much like it fizzled out. I told all my friends who were freaking out about a week ago about THREE FEET of snow that there it was just silly to worry about that so far away. People just don't get weather...


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## steamboat1 (Feb 6, 2014)

Holy crap guys

Just get out there & ski

Whatever it is it is

I guarantee you it'll be better than you thought it would be

Most likely going up next Tues-Fri. myself

What ever it is it is


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2014)

GFS and Canadian have a mid-atlantic snowstorm, North Carolina and Virginia, etc....

Euro has the biggest snowstorm, with 12 or 13 inches NC/VA,  8 or 9 inches in southern NJ,  but even 4 or 5 inches all the up to Canada. 

 Thus, the map and model you're going to hear talked about all weekend,............. is......... the Euro. lol


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## billski (Feb 7, 2014)

steamboat1 said:


> Holy crap guys
> 
> Just get out there & ski
> 
> ...



Nothing wrong with looking forward.  While I often over-analyze, I don't think I'm alone in saying that with a limited budget of money, vacation time and weekend availability, I try to make every day worth going.  Doesn't negate your comment about good conditions - As I've said before, as long as the temps allow, this snow is going to be amazingly good.  
Besides, sitting in the office wishing I could be outside lends itself to wishful thinking and whining.  Look back at the years, there's always been a lot of both, coupled with some amazing TRs.


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## 4aprice (Feb 7, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> GFS and Canadian have a mid-atlantic snowstorm, North Carolina and Virginia, etc....
> 
> Euro has the biggest snowstorm, with 12 or 13 inches NC/VA,  8 or 9 inches in southern NJ,  but even 4 or 5 inches all the up to Canada.
> 
> Thus, the map and model you're going to hear talked about all weekend,............. is......... the Euro. lol



Looked to me as if its 2 separate systems (southern being stronger) which they thought were going to phase (thus the hype for a big storm several days back) staying separate.  The big KU usually represents a pattern change (ex Superstorm 93 where it was 60-70 2 weeks later) so I'd be happier with the nickles and dimes for a while.

Alex

Lake Hopatong, NJ


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 7, 2014)

4aprice said:


> Looked to me as if its 2 separate systems (southern being stronger) which they thought were going to phase (thus the hype for a big storm several days back) staying separate.



You're confusing storms.  That's the Sunday (non) event.  This thread is for midweek next week. 

  Frankly, there's really no need for any storm speculation threads outside of 5 or 6 days.


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## fbrissette (Feb 7, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Frankly, there's really no need for any storm speculation threads outside of 5 or 6 days.



Well, we are 5-6 days away from mid-week next week !

On another note, some serious dumping in Northern Colorado, Wyoming and Idaho with larges swaths of 20 inches+ forecasted in the next 72 hours.  We're in the wrong part of the country.


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## Wavewheeler (Feb 7, 2014)

Long range has something coming up from the south on Wednesday night into Thursday. Looks like the Weather Gods are listening to my prayers.  Hoping it stays cold and doesn't turn into rain in the mountains.


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## skiberg (Feb 7, 2014)

Light snow at best right now. Models tend to agree that Two systems don't phase together. Storm does not really gain strength until fri when it's well into the Canadian maritimes.


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## Smellytele (Feb 8, 2014)

skiberg said:


> Light snow at best right now. Models tend to agree that Two systems don't phase together. Storm does not really gain strength until fri when it's well into the Canadian maritimes.



This is becoming the normal pattern right now!!!


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## ss20 (Feb 8, 2014)

Seriously, will NJ get more snow this year than Jay? :angry::wink:


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## Euler (Feb 9, 2014)

ss20 said:


> Seriously, will NJ get more snow this year than Jay? :angry::wink:


Definitely a good possibility at this point, sad as it is.


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## Wavewheeler (Feb 9, 2014)

ss20 said:


> Seriously, will NJ get more snow this year than Jay? :angry::wink:



 Well, I live here and all it does is screw up my life. I'd be the first to ship it up north where it belongs! I can always drive up to enjoy it!


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## Rowsdower (Feb 9, 2014)

Wavewheeler said:


> Well, I live here and all it does is screw up my life. I'd be the first to ship it up north where it belongs! I can always drive up to enjoy it!



But the "glades" behind my work are rideable!


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## Wavewheeler (Feb 9, 2014)

You live in North Jersey. All we get is slush and mess. Anything that looks white is ice now.  My daughter is up in New Brunswick and will often tell me it's snowing up there and it's raining here. Amazing what a difference 35 miles makes.


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## gmcunni (Feb 9, 2014)

news tonight said 2 of 3 models showing potential for powerful storm.


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## fbrissette (Feb 9, 2014)

Euler said:


> Definitely a good possibility at this point, sad as it is.



This is what Jay looked like this afternoon.  Does New-Jersey looks like that ?


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## vermonter44 (Feb 9, 2014)

If we had that much snow here it would be chaos


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 9, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> This is what Jay looked like this afternoon.  Does New-Jersey looks like that ?
> View attachment 10959



It wouldnt shock me if the higher points up in the northern part of the state look something like that.

Another 3" tonight BTW.


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## Rowsdower (Feb 9, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> It wouldnt shock me if the higher points up in the northern part of the state look something like that.
> 
> Another 3" tonight BTW.



Even the higher elevations didn't keep any of the previous snowpack. Everything melted before the last couple of snowfalls, so there's probably no more than 12" tops on the ground.


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## Wavewheeler (Feb 10, 2014)

While up north got all that snow last Wednesday a lot of NJ got rain, freezing rain and sleet. A lot of the snow washed or away, melted and/or become slush and then frozen ice. No way does it look like that picture. 

It was sad to drive home last night and go from a winter wonderland to the crud that is winter at the Jersey Shore. When we do get snow, it's usually wet and doesn't last long.


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## hammer (Feb 10, 2014)

So what are the latest guesses regarding the models?  Just checked the local NWS discussion and there still seems to be a lot of uncertainty...


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## SnowRock (Feb 10, 2014)

I see my holly has already released a snowfall map for thursday am. Does this storm deliver to points north? Work has made it difficult for me to catch much fresh this season but I could set-up for this one. Just trying to figure out where


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## fbrissette (Feb 10, 2014)

SnowRock said:


> I see my holly has already released a snowfall map for thursday am. Does this storm deliver to points north? Work has made it difficult for me to catch much fresh this season but I could set-up for this one. Just trying to figure out where



Models show nothing significant for at least the next five days for ski country.


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## 4aprice (Feb 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> It wouldnt shock me if the higher points up in the northern part of the state look something like that.
> 
> Another 3" tonight BTW.



No way.  There's a decent snowpack on top of Camelback (Elev 2000') but nothing like that.  There are some off trail things that can be skied this year too.  I have somewhere around 10-14" otg (2 new last night), we're probably at about 50" for the season, good for NJ but not comparable to anywhere that's supposed to get snow.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## fbrissette (Feb 10, 2014)

4aprice said:


> No way.  There's a decent snowpack on top of Camelback (Elev 2000') but nothing like that.  There are some off trail things that can be skied this year too.  I have somewhere around 10-14" otg (2 new last night), we're probably at about 50" for the season, good for NJ but not comparable to anywhere that's supposed to get snow.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



To be fair this was taken near the top of Big Jay at nearly 4000'.  There is 4-5 feet of snow on the ground, whereas it is only about 2 feet at 2000'.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

Rowsdower said:


> *Even the higher elevations didn't keep any of the previous snowpack.* Everything melted before the last couple of snowfalls, so there's probably no more than 12" tops on the ground.



I'm only at 200 foot elevation, and I have about 12 inches on the ground right now.  I would think they'd have more.



hammer said:


> So what are the latest guesses regarding the models?  Just checked the local NWS discussion and there still seems to be a lot of uncertainty...



Euro, Canadian and even Brits are onboard for a BIG snowstorm.  Only the GFS, which the news you see on TV is largely driven off of, doesnt see the storm and has an OTS event.  New Jersey could get pounded again.

Here is yesterday's 12z Euro ensemble.


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## hammer (Feb 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Euro, Canadian and even Brits are onboard for a BIG snowstorm.  Only the GFS, which the news you see on TV is largely driven off of, doesnt see the storm and has an OTS event.  New Jersey could get pounded again.


Lately the TV mets I've been watching have been showing more than one model run.  Think they are trying to hedge their bets as well.  Still wonder since not all models are lined up yet but am still hopeful.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

Here's the NAM's version of the snowfall map.  

NAM is a little outside the window when you take it seriously, but it also shows a big snow event.


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## Huck_It_Baby (Feb 10, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> This is what Jay looked like this afternoon.  Does New-Jersey looks like that ?
> View attachment 10959




Very nice! 

This one is around  3,000 on Morse this weekend. I've been skiing powder for 4 days in a row.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

This is the sort of map I like a lot at this point.  

It's from Bastardi's kid, and what he's essentially acknowleding is that THIS far out, with track uncertainty up in the air, these are the areas that could receive big snow.  Now, some people might think a map like this is completely useless, but I 100% disagree, as he's basically "ruling out" geographies, which IMO is useful.

*KEEP IN MIND, ONLY THE GFS HAS THE STORM EAST AT THIS POINT *


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## JDMRoma (Feb 10, 2014)

Looks good to me, I already have Friday off as my Pre Mass Vacation day of skiing.....New Snow will be an added bonus no matter how much we get !!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

12z GFS is running as we speak......

My prediction?

I bet it does that, _"cave to all the other models and embarrass the US government"_ thing that it likes to do in about this timeframe, and finally shows a big snowstorm over land, rather than over the Atlantic ocean.


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## Puck it (Feb 10, 2014)

I am thinking of Friday too if it snows.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

12Z GFS is now in, and it DID move significantly northwest.  

It's not a big hit as modeled at all, but at least it's not completely out to sea anymore.

Baby steps to competence....


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 10, 2014)

WE could use some more snow here in the NEK. The last two snowfalls have been so light and fluffy, they settled down to 10" at my stake. So I was over 12" briefly.


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## wa-loaf (Feb 10, 2014)

Door number 1 please!


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## Smellytele (Feb 10, 2014)

wa-loaf said:


> Door number 1 please!
> 
> View attachment 10973



+1


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

The trend ALL winter is for storms to come in farther north (and west) than modeled, and often colder and snowier.  Hopefully that continues.


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## j law (Feb 10, 2014)

Hmmm, I wonder if my wife will mind if I disappear on Valentines Day?


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## yeggous (Feb 10, 2014)

j law said:


> Hmmm, I wonder if my wife will mind if I disappear on Valentines Day?



This is an inevitable problem for me. I know where I will be, but the question is if I will survive the decision.


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## Puck it (Feb 10, 2014)

Wife is flying back from London at 5PM. So I have a free pass!!!!!!!!

Take baby, take!!!!!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> The trend ALL winter is for storms to come in farther north (and west) than modeled, and often colder and snowier.  Hopefully that continues.



The 12z Canadian model just finalized, and I think it's listening to me!


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## catsup948 (Feb 10, 2014)

I hope this is finally southern vermont/berkshires jackpot.  I just got new skins and I don't have time to go north!

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## WJenness (Feb 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> The 12z Canadian model just finalized, and I think it's listening to me!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

12z ECMWF just finished and it EXPLODED

Seriously considering canceling my Northern Vermont plans and heading back to the Catskills if this doesnt jog farther north.  Still time.....snow expansion is becoming significant.


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## 4aprice (Feb 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> 12z ECMWF just finished and it EXPLODED
> 
> Seriously considering canceling my Northern Vermont plans and heading back to the Catskills if this doesnt jog farther north.  Still time.....snow expansion is becoming significant.



Wow, that's a great hit for the Pocono's.  Might be a GREAT weekend if no one can get there.  (fingers crossed)

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


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## lerops (Feb 10, 2014)

thanks for posting. Are these storm totals or snapshot?


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## soxfan2 (Feb 10, 2014)

YES! Accuweather finally gave up the deets.....


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 10, 2014)

Puck it said:


> Wife is flying back from London at 5PM. So I have a free pass!!!!!!!!
> 
> Take baby, take!!!!!


Especially if the flight is delayed due to weather!


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 10, 2014)

And another one misses N VT :-x


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## Bostonian (Feb 10, 2014)

man how do I convince my wife to let me go skiing instead of dealing with my inlaws for my son's 3rd birthday this weekend?


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## SnowRock (Feb 10, 2014)

Is this looking more like Wednesday night into Thursday or Wednesday night light, Thursday all day best day Friday? Trying to figure out work and wife details. Seems like its more Thursday now than originally thought?


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> And *another one misses N VT* :-x



Not getting the brunt on it, but I wouldnt give up all hope.  Wouldnt shock me at all if the mountains could pick up 6".   Look at yesterday, Smuggs was supposed to get 1" or 2" and is reporting 6" to 8" today.  Are Jay's glades decent right now or are they rocky and iffy?


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Not getting the brunt on it, but I wouldnt give up all hope.  Wouldnt shock me at all if the mountains could pick up 6".   Look at yesterday, Smuggs was supposed to get 1" or 2" and is reporting 6" to 8" today.  Are Jay's glades decent right now or are they rocky and iffy?


That 6-8 was mostly isolated to the high ridge of the Greens. MOTNEK (Middle of the NEK) got a 1/2". The High Greens are getting better with each disturbance that moves through. I'll take another 6" but I'm totally starved for a 12"+ storm in these parts. I want a reason to break out my touring gear some early morning.


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## fbrissette (Feb 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Not getting the brunt on it, but I wouldnt give up all hope.  Wouldnt shock me at all if the mountains could pick up 6".   Look at yesterday, Smuggs was supposed to get 1" or 2" and is reporting 6" to 8" today.  Are Jay's glades decent right now or are they rocky and iffy?



Variable but lots of rock.   Problem is the underlying ice.  The snow won't hold.   You get a rocky icy patch with a huge mogul of snow at the bottom.

EDIT: they are all open and i've skied all of them including the face.  All skiable, the higher up the better.  Not fully recommended if you are in love with your skis.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

18Z NAM buries New Jersey in minimum of 10" of snow, maximum of 25" of snow, Poconos in about 9" or 10".


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## jrmagic (Feb 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> 12z ECMWF just finished and it EXPLODED
> 
> Seriously considering canceling my Northern Vermont plans and heading back to the Catskills if this doesnt jog farther north.  Still time.....snow expansion is becoming significant.



Id love to see this get a nice northward bump to put more of NE ski country into some  significant accumulations.


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## ChicoKat (Feb 10, 2014)

What is it looking like in the Whites in NH? Water Ville Valley in particular. Live 6 miles down the road. The usual 'snowmageddon' sites like snowforecast.com have not picked up on this at all.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

I realize nobody is paying attention or hearing anything about this given the _*LOUD NOISES* _the first storm is creating, but NE would probably get at least 4 or 5 inches Saturday afternoon/evening if this second disturbance comes through as modeled.

Also, there's a TON of energy entering from the Pacific in this pane, but it's way to early to do anything but note that it's there.


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## jrmagic (Feb 10, 2014)

I'm not that happy with the temps trending up above freezing next week.


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## from_the_NEK (Feb 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Also, there's a TON of energy entering from the Pacific in this pane, but it's way to early to do anything but note that it's there.



Probably going to be rain.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> Probably going to be rain.



Sadly that could be the case if the long-range models with temps increasing are to be believed.  Hope not.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

*18z NAM snow map is out.*


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## skiberg (Feb 10, 2014)

When does the Warm up start. I have seen some long range forecasts suggesting the same thing. Next week? Early or Late?


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## j law (Feb 10, 2014)

Can we please have a storm that isn't along the I-95 Corridor?  I'm really sick of XC skiing in Central Park!


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## cbackman (Feb 10, 2014)

I approve of this map


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## Boston Bulldog (Feb 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> *18z NAM snow map is out.*



Strange... strange. I've never seen such a sharp cut off, on both sides.


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## flightschool (Feb 10, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Strange... strange. I've never seen such a sharp cut off, on both sides.



There is a small system coming from the great lakes screwing things up... :angry:  I'm going to Sugarbush Sat/sunday and if this thing doesn't turn NW i'm going to need a moment to myself.


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## drjeff (Feb 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> *18z NAM snow map is out.*



Well if this map plays out then I'll be in the unhappy situation where the show banks at my house in CT are deeper than at my place at Mount Snow :-( 

Right now my place in VT has about a 6-8" advantage over my house in CT - but the less than 6" on this map for So VT and the 12"+ for NE CT would make it "February Bizzaro snowbank world" for me! 

If this model is the case, the "fresh snow in my back yard" factor for the millions who live along the I-95 corridor could make this a record setting Presidents Day Weekend for many resorts!!

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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

drjeff said:


> *If this model is the case, the "fresh snow in my back yard" factor for the millions who live along the I-96 corridor could make this a record setting Presidents Day Weekend for many resorts!!*



I've been dreading this thought.


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## Boston Bulldog (Feb 10, 2014)

Not buying the NAM. The precip shield should be relatively large on this one due to the lack of pure arctic air carving out a sharp backedge. Should be a glancing blow for NNE, not a major hit.

This one is juiced. Reminds me of the January 2011 systems; crushes SNE and gives a nice snowfall to the ski areas. If the EURO brings a track back over TAN (It's been waffling between just SE of TAN and NE of the benchmark lol), we're back in business.


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## Boston Bulldog (Feb 10, 2014)

flightschool said:


> There is a small system coming from the great lakes screwing things up... :angry:  I'm going to Sugarbush Sat/sunday and if this thing doesn't turn NW i'm going to need a moment to myself.



I believe that system will be phasing with the main event. The weekend looks good for a moderate snowfall Sat/Sat Night (idk about the timing) right now, as BG said.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Strange... strange.* I've never seen such a sharp cut off, on both sides*.



  The eastern cutoff isnt really a storm cutoff, it's just that that's a snow map and there is too much warm air on that side for snow.  The western cutoff is where the storm ends.


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## Boston Bulldog (Feb 10, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> The eastern cutoff isnt really a storm cutoff, it's just that that's a snow map and there is too much warm air on that side for snow.  The western cutoff is where the storm ends.



I know, just the cut off from Rain to Snow is so sharp on that map. I would at least expect it to have a more SE-NE gradient to it as well as a more gradual cut off. Also the western cut off seems too pronounced. I believe the snow shield will be large in this storm due to the lack of pure arctic air.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

The first "First Call" map I've seen.


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## Rowsdower (Feb 10, 2014)

Just don't reschedule my Thursday morning class... I want to get to the mountains Friday.


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## billski (Feb 10, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Not buying the NAM. The precip shield should be relatively large on this one due to the lack of pure arctic air carving out a sharp backedge. Should be a glacing blow for NNE, not a major hit.
> 
> This one is juiced. Reminds me of the January 2011 systems; crushes SNE and gives a nice snowfall to the ski areas. If the EURO brings a track back over TAN (It's been waffling between just SE of TAN and NE of the benchmark lol), we're back in business.



Catastrophic, record-breaking, monumental, killer-storm, gridlock, panic.  'cmon weather.com and accuweather, let's pump this one up!


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## sf77 (Feb 10, 2014)

This will be excellent for everyone that is heading out skiing over the President's Day Weekend. I'll be on the mountains on Saturday and Sunday and this new snow will be AWESOME!:lol:
It will once again be a more southerly tracking snow with more of the heavy snow in Massachusetts and Connecticut. Fine with me though because I'll be skiing on fresh powder in MA. 
I agree with the widespread amounts of 8-12+ all across New England.


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## gmcunni (Feb 10, 2014)

this storm and Magic Mtn could be a nice pres weekend combo


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## vermonter44 (Feb 10, 2014)

Its been a ton of snow here in South Jersey. Hopefully it trends north and gives ski country some nice snow.


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## xwhaler (Feb 10, 2014)

gmcunni said:


> this storm and Magic Mtn could be a nice pres weekend combo



$39 ride and ski tickets this Sat at Magic.....RSNE tour stop

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## Wavewheeler (Feb 10, 2014)

Wow, looks like a home run for the Catskills and Poconos. I want to do a run up to Camelback. I was thinking Thursday. Have Jeep, will travel in snow. I'm inclined to do Friday but I'm thinking with the beginning of a holiday weekend, a lot of people taking off early and the roads being cleared that CB will be a zoo. I'll probably have the place to myself on Thursday. 

Looks like a rain/mix where I am. Hopefully this will trend NW. 

Either way I get to listen to all my friend bitch about how horrible this winter is. I don't know..I'M having an AWESOME time!


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## gmcunni (Feb 10, 2014)

xwhaler said:


> $39 ride and ski tickets this Sat at Magic.....RSNE tour stop



i can't find this, can you point me to it?  google no help me


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## xwhaler (Feb 10, 2014)

Www.rideandskine.com

Click on weekend tour

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## catsup948 (Feb 10, 2014)

I have two Magic vouchers I need to use but Berkshire East being a bit south looks like they may get more snow.

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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

Bastardi's kid's first call map



> Went with just a snow threat map. Still just too much uncertainty with  where the track of the low will actually end up. Farther west=heavy snow  farther west with mixing on the coast. Farther east=heavy snow in the  I-95 corridor down through Central NC, while areas farther inland get  little to no snow.  **Area outlined in Purple- Highest chance of 18-24"+ snow.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 10, 2014)

00z GFS comes another 40 miles NW.   Not that I care.  Garbage model playing catch-up to other models.   Cant wait to see the 00z Canadian!


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## billski (Feb 10, 2014)

nek including jp are having a lousy year.  Well, as someone said, it's socialist snow.  Spread the wealth!   I'll be back in town on Saturday, I may have to go out and pay some steep amount.  Should have bought the magic pass!


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## billski (Feb 10, 2014)

been too busy working.  Wow, this looks handsome!


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## flightschool (Feb 11, 2014)

Accuweather snow map out - good for everyone except Northern VT.  JP, Stowe, SB get shafted again.


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## Tin (Feb 11, 2014)

Looking like the Berkshires and Catskills are the place to be, 12-18???


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## Rowsdower (Feb 11, 2014)

Yeah, Butternut is gonna be going off. The Catskills and Camelback are gonna hit the jackpot as well. 

Sick.


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## SnowRock (Feb 11, 2014)

If you were me... I will be able to sleep home and likely make it to Cmaleback or Mountain Creek Thursday and maybe even Friday depending upon who gets hit better and not have to do much juggling with work and life. Or do I try and grab a room up in the Cats tomorrow night so I can hit Hunter and enjoy the westside when its really good and have to juggle more work and life?? Decisions decisions


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## flightschool (Feb 11, 2014)

I hope Joe Bastardi is right and GFS is going to keep shifting 20 miles west each run to come in line with the Euro.  That would mean a powerful storm for almost all of ski country.  He thinks it will be locked in by tomorrow AM


----------



## WJenness (Feb 11, 2014)

Time off request going in now... Thursday & Friday, I will be Out of Office.


----------



## lstone84 (Feb 11, 2014)

3'+ in SNH get there quick


----------



## The Sneak (Feb 11, 2014)

Probably going to BEast solo on Monday. Hopefully that saturday system refreshes things...


----------



## ScottySkis (Feb 11, 2014)

flightschool said:


> I hope Joe Bastardi is right and GFS is going to keep shifting 20 miles west each run to come in line with the Euro.  That would mean a powerful storm for almost all of ski country.  He thinks it will be locked in by tomorrow AM



Catskills is the place to be with this one.


----------



## lstone84 (Feb 11, 2014)

nah i think pat's peak 3' fri am


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

Mets Snow Guesstimates incoming!!!!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

Rowsdower said:


> The Catskills and *Camelback are gonna hit the jackpot *as well.



Given the extreme NW-cutoff, there's a chance the Poconos are going to get screwed badly out of the heaviest snow. I'm not saying that's going to happen, and if the western trend continues it wont, but there will be places in PA that get screwed for sure.

Note how the 12zNAM displays the sharp cutoff from BIG snow, to Decent snow, to "snow, what snow?", in just a 40 or 50 mile shift.


----------



## flightschool (Feb 11, 2014)

Scotty said:


> Catskills is the place to be with this one.



Southern Maine and NH may do better FYI.  Storm is going to intensify as it moves NE from what i've seen. Not saying that will happen, but it could.  Looks like catskills will do great no matter what so if you're playing the probability strategy, go Catskills.


----------



## flightschool (Feb 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Given the extreme NW-cutoff, there's a chance the Poconos are going to get screwed badly out of the heaviest snow. I'm not saying that's going to happen, and if the western trend continues it wont, but there will be places in PA that get screwed for sure.



Mixing in Pocono's or just no precipitation? Never mind.  sorry!  Although CMC is showing mixing into allentown PA.


----------



## Rowsdower (Feb 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Given the extreme NW-cutoff, there's a chance the Poconos are going to get screwed badly out of the heaviest snow. I'm not saying that's going to happen, and if the western trend continues it wont, but there will be places in PA that get screwed for sure.
> 
> Note how the 12zNAM displays the sharp cutoff from BIG snow, to Decent snow, to "snow, what snow?", in just a 40 or 50 mile shift.



This looks like the Catskills and Pokes get screwed. Hopefully it tracks a bit more NW. I don't need the snow, but the mountains do.


----------



## lerops (Feb 11, 2014)

I might have screwed Smuggs by booking with them yesterday. Sorry NEK!


----------



## Tin (Feb 11, 2014)

Baltimore, NYC, and Philly? The Weather Channel will go Full Snowmagedon Ret... on this.

"Tens of millions in the path of deadly winter storm (Greek or Roman God name here)!"


----------



## skifree (Feb 11, 2014)

damn. I need milk and bread


beer


----------



## Puck it (Feb 11, 2014)

skifree said:


> damn. I need milk and bread
> 
> 
> beer



And eggs!!!!!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

Rowsdower said:


> This looks like the Catskills and *Pokes get screwed. Hopefully it tracks a bit more NW*. I don't need the snow, but the mountains do.



12z Euro is out and it came slightly west'ish, which is good for Poconos (obviously), so they should be fine if that track verifies.  Any west movement is good for Poconos and Cats.

  I think most mets are being conservative at this point, it wouldnt shock me if lots of folks end up with 15"+ out of this.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

Joe Bastardi's map with timeline.  

He's expecting heavier snow to penetrate deeper into ski country than most are thinking.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

And now Bastardi's kid, also taking the "Go big or go home" attitude with predicting this storm.

He's going outside-the-box and forecasting a massive near-blizzard with at least 6", and up to 12" for *all *of New England


----------



## jrmagic (Feb 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Joe Bastardi's map with timeline.
> 
> He's expecting heavier snow to penetrate deeper into ski country than most are thinking.



Let's hope he's right. I'm encouraged that in his mind whike still narrow, the NW cutoff isn't quite as sharp as we have been seeing.


----------



## Tin (Feb 11, 2014)

How has this gone from Thursday night to Friday night?


----------



## hammer (Feb 11, 2014)

Tin said:


> How has this gone from Thursday night to Friday night?


00Z Friday = 1900 (7PM) Thursday?


----------



## Tin (Feb 11, 2014)

Blonde moment, thanks.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

12z Euro snow map is out

I'm guessing the New England (and especially northern New England) weather folks are asleep at the switch on this one and it caught them by surprise.

  Seems to me the region might do better than most are expecting.


----------



## lerops (Feb 11, 2014)

yes, baby!


----------



## Puck it (Feb 11, 2014)




----------



## Boston Bulldog (Feb 11, 2014)

Oh man, if only the NAM was reliable. It just gave a foot all the way from NVT down to the coast. H7 is huge in that run.


----------



## podunk77 (Feb 11, 2014)

For those thinking of hitting central NH on Friday, remember that Ragged has $14 Valentine's Day lift tickets so long as you buy them online by Thursday midnight.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

Saint Valentines Day might be a little windy depending on where you are.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

*18Z GFS is out*

And it moved west yet again......which means it's failure is complete.... and it now looks more like the Canuck and the Euro. 

What does it mean?  

IMO, it means that New England TV weather folk are finally going to increase their snow totals for the region, because most of them use the US government's sorry predictive weather model.

  It also means I might be able to snowshoe until July here in New Jersey.  NW New Jersey will be taking a run at From_The_NEKs snow stake again.


----------



## flightschool (Feb 11, 2014)

Benedict do you think the NAM will come west?


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

flightschool said:


> Benedict do you think the NAM will come west?



The 18Z NAM is already out.


----------



## cbackman (Feb 11, 2014)

18z nam looks good


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

Amateur weather weenie's (met major) first call map.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

Catskills Guess.....


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

*12Z Euro Ensemble snow map*

Similar to 12z Operational Euro map I posted a few hours ago, but:

 BETTER for DAX

 BETTER for VT

WORSE for NH.  

Why?

Because the ensemble run shifts the snow to the west by about 40 or 50 miles.


----------



## lstone84 (Feb 11, 2014)

lets have a bunch of amateurs post models and maps they know nothing about, great, keep going!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> *
> 
> lets have a bunch of amateurs post models and maps they know nothing about, great, keep going!*l



Hey look! 

A guy with 12 posts in 17 months, 33% of which (4 of 12) are in this thread, makes a derogatory comment about the only thread he's participating in.

Hmmm........ I'm gonna lay heavy odds somebody is from New Hampshire and didn't like the last post.


----------



## lstone84 (Feb 11, 2014)

not from nh, who cares how much I post..thought this would be a good thread but its just people with no knowledge grabbing maps and re posting them and misleading people...omg im so cool i can copy and paste a map and pretend i know the weather


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

Do NOT speculate about the storm in the "storm speculation" thread.


This one might have Snowlover potential!


----------



## lstone84 (Feb 11, 2014)

i will not deny.....i didn't see the title of the thread

that is actually hilarious. still people in here are clearly relying on some of these posts like they're from mets which is dumb


----------



## gmcunni (Feb 11, 2014)

it is a ski forum, weather knowledge is optional... heck, skiing knowledge is optional too


----------



## Tin (Feb 11, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> lets have a bunch of amateurs post models and maps they know nothing about, great, keep going!



Some have been more accurate than the NWS this year.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> *i didn't see the title of the thread*



Four visits to same thread over the course of 8 hours...........

about the only thread he's EVER posted in............. 

Claims he didnt "see the title of the thread"

Seems legit.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

gmcunni said:


> it is a ski forum, weather knowledge is optional... heck, *skiing knowledge is optional too*



True.  I couldnt teach someone how to ski, my private lessons would be like Booger from _Better Off Dead_.




Tin said:


> Some have been more accurate than the NWS this year.



To be fair, that hasnt been terribly difficult.  Poor bastards have had a rough winter.


----------



## steamboat1 (Feb 11, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> lets have a bunch of amateurs post models and maps they know nothing about, great, keep going!



I'm with you buddy.


----------



## lstone84 (Feb 11, 2014)

yes i'm lying about not knowing the thread title..great tactical move...benedictgomez weatherman where o where will the snow be almighty master of meteorology. Maybe if you post just a few more maps everyone will think you are soooo smart.

the thread was linked on facebook...get past the 'only thread he's ever posted in' already...


----------



## deadheadskier (Feb 11, 2014)

chill lstone84

it's just building stoke.  benedict isn't the only one who posts models; though he does seem to have the greatest weather speculation fetish lately :lol:

in all seriousness though, people have been posting these for as long as the forum has been around.  really no need to flame it


----------



## lstone84 (Feb 11, 2014)

it looks like some people are relying on his maps and treating them as more than pure speculation. If that's not true then my bad. Like I said, I didn't see the title, speculating is fine, fun, i do it...really didn't see the title


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

This forum should have an "ignore" button like most forums have for the trolls.  Granted it's not needed here that often but it's a nice feature build.


----------



## lstone84 (Feb 11, 2014)

ahh he's from New Jersey...can't believe I didn't realize that until now.


----------



## cbackman (Feb 11, 2014)

Istone84 why are you on this forum again? What a buzzkill


----------



## twinplanx (Feb 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> This forum should have an "ignore" button like most forums have for the trolls.  Granted it's not needed here that often but it's a nice feature build.



This forum DOES, in fact have an ignore feature... 

Sent from my SCH-S735C using Tapatalk


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## lstone84 (Feb 11, 2014)

i noticed people putting too much weight on non meteorologist speculation, thought I'd help them out w/ a warning. Once I saw the title of the thread was speculation, I said oops, my bad. Not that complicated. Speculate on, forget about me.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> it looks like some people are *relying on his maps and treating them as more than pure speculation*.



Hey genius,

Most of the maps I post are in fact verbatim outputs of Global weather models, like the Euro ensemble snowfall map that got you to whining.

When they're not, when they're actually "speculative maps" based on Global weather models, which only happens once the event is quite near, I usually label them so people know what they're looking at.  And many of those "speculative maps" actually are in fact done by professional meteorologists who I follow.


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## flightschool (Feb 11, 2014)

It's our weather pron, it helps me sleep (or not) at night! :wink:


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

twinplanx said:


> *This forum DOES, in fact have an ignore feature... *



It does?   Tell me more.



lstone84 said:


> forget about me.




As soon as twinplanx drops the knowledge.


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## lstone84 (Feb 11, 2014)

it wasn't that specific map that made me comment, all of them together. I'm familiar with all the models, all the maps, i monitor them all, every run, just like you. But what you don't seem to get is that a model run is not a forecast, and that it involves more than just looking at one or many models. And it's clear that some people don't realize they're not forecasts, even if you do.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 11, 2014)

ignore list is under edit user profile menu


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

*MOAR MAPPAGE!!!!!!!!!!!!* (and done by a professional meterologist to boot)


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## wa-loaf (Feb 11, 2014)

I for one love weather porn even if some of the models may be artificial ...


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## Not Sure (Feb 11, 2014)

wa-loaf said:


> I for one love weather porn even if some of the models may be artificial ...


What he said!!!!
Back country Pa. Saturday ...Whoooo Hoooo!!!!!!


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## Rowsdower (Feb 11, 2014)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> What he said!!!!
> Back country Pa. Saturday ...Whoooo Hoooo!!!!!!



Looks like I'm headed to the steep and deep Piscataway backcountry.


----------



## flightschool (Feb 11, 2014)

New accuweather video - the snow map has such narrow snow accumulation bands.. kind of weird.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snowstorm-carolinasto-maine/2430839568001


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## skiberg (Feb 11, 2014)

If a map isn't a forecast then what the hell is it


----------



## 4aprice (Feb 11, 2014)

Siliconebobsquarepants said:


> What he said!!!!
> Back country Pa. Saturday ...Whoooo Hoooo!!!!!!



I only know a few places I would dare going off trail in the Pocono's and those spots are probably skiable now but if we get anything like what is being predicted they will definitely be skiable this weekend.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ


----------



## dlague (Feb 11, 2014)

Enjoy the stoke!  Some people seem to have their britches on too tight!  Who cares if the models are wrong or right! It is about having a decent conversation and not about pissing in someone else Cheerios!


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## ss20 (Feb 11, 2014)

Keep the maps coming- I like them.


----------



## Not Sure (Feb 11, 2014)

4aprice said:


> I only know a few places I would dare going off trail in the Pocono's and those spots are probably skiable now but if we get anything like what is being predicted they will definitely be skiable this weekend.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



I have a place I hiked last Winter for some recon, Drove past last week and it was almost filled in before the last 4'' storm.
I figured 6 more will do.
Will post a report with a few location hints for the Brave/Crazy.
It's pretty knarly and hard to get to.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

dlague said:


> *Who cares if the models are wrong or right!* It is about having a decent conversation and not about pissing in someone else Cheerios!



Well I hope this one's wrong.  

00z NAM is out, came a bit east (we dont want that).  On the bright side, I do not believe (but an not 100% certain) the 00z NAM got this afternoon's special Hurricane Hunter input like tonight's 00z GFS will.


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## gmcunni (Feb 11, 2014)

wa-loaf said:


> I for one love weather porn even if some of the models may be artificial ...


^yes


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## flightschool (Feb 11, 2014)

Robbed by the NAM... hope every other model can stay west.


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## Wavewheeler (Feb 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> It also means I might be able to snowshoe until July here in New Jersey.  NW New Jersey will be taking a run at From_The_NEKs snow stake again.



After 2 years of staring at my snowshoes sitting unused in the closet it will be a welcome change! 

Looks like both Poconos and Cats are looking good provided the track stays west. Thursday could be nasty for travel and wind so I'm thinking Friday could be the day.


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## Nick (Feb 11, 2014)

Fwiw I know admittedly very little about weather and post maps here and on az's fb / IG pages based on what I'm reading. Most of it especially over 3 or 4 days out is of course guesswork but I'm happy to build excitement about snow and the optimist in me always believes the more aggressive snowfall models, even though I know that's unlikely 

Sent from my SCH-I545 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

Wavewheeler said:


> After 2 years of staring at my snowshoes sitting unused in the closet it will be a welcome change!



Same here.

Bought snowshoes (stole them practically) 2 years ago, this is the first year I've used them!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

Very nuanced, with lower totals than most I've seen.  Worth noting though is that the NAM and RGEM have both come east since he put out this map.


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## SnowRock (Feb 11, 2014)

4aprice said:


> I only know a few places I would dare going off trail in the Pocono's and those spots are probably skiable now but if we get anything like what is being predicted they will definitely be skiable this weekend.
> 
> Alex
> 
> Lake Hopatcong, NJ



Know anyone that has ever done the old snow bowl? I imagine if things hold as forecast that would rideable


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 11, 2014)

00z GFS with the Hurricane Hunter data input is out.....and it's weird.  Theoretically it should improve the accuracy, but it's still on an island versus the other models.

That sort of leads you to wonder whether the GFS was right all along and _all_ the other models were wrong (seems unlikely) or whether the GFS is such crap that even with a near live data advantage over the other models, it still blows.  Head scratcher.  Anyway, the snow map will probably be out by 11:30, though I'm not sure we learned much.


----------



## gladerider (Feb 11, 2014)

I'm the OP and I had a few beers so I couldn't resist reading comments from folks like istone84.
First, this is a ski/ snowboard forum. It is in our nature to speculate the storms on deck. 
Second, if you don't get that or appreciate what people like BG are doing,  get the fukout of the thread.  This is my thread and people who appreciate that will follow. I follow enuf METs and none provide what I need. But people like BG provide that. So STFU. He is spending the time that many wouldn't due to his passion.  He's not getting paid.  If you don't get that,  why are you here?  This is not the weather.com. So I don't need your critique.  Get the fukout. 
Sorry for the rant to everyone else.  Like I said I had a few beers and can't stand these people who's got no respect for others. 

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk


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## gladerider (Feb 11, 2014)

Oh. And I'm also from NJ. FU. Jersey strong b!tch.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk


----------



## Wavewheeler (Feb 11, 2014)

I also like the weather maps and "speculation" that is posted in threads like this one. It's awesome to see people getting EXCITED about the prospect of a big snowstorm rather than bitching about it.   Keep up the good work!


----------



## Wavewheeler (Feb 11, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Same here.
> 
> Bought snowshoes (stole them practically) 2 years ago, this is the first year I've used them!



I bought my snowshoes in March 2011 after we got tons of snow. Got a great deal from Camp-mor. The day after they arrived it rained and washed ALL the snow away.  For the next 2 years they gathered dust.

They have gotten more use in the last 2 months than the past 2 years.


----------



## Smellytele (Feb 12, 2014)

gladerider said:


> Oh. And I'm also from NJ. FU. Jersey strong b!tch.
> 
> Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk



really? I couldn't tell.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

Wavewheeler said:


> I bought my snowshoes in March 2011 after we got tons of snow. Got a great deal from Camp-mor. The day after they arrived it rained and washed ALL the snow away.  For the next 2 years they gathered dust.
> 
> They have gotten more use in the last 2 months than the past 2 years.



Same story, maybe even the same month.  Answered an add on Craigslist for a NWT pair of snowshoes that go for $200 to $250 and the guy was selling them for $50.  I figure he must have won them in a raffle or something and had no use for them.   And I had no use for them until recently.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

So last night's 00z GFS was extremely confusing, especially given it had the advantage over the other models of near live data via dropsondes.  Annndddd not much changed, it's still on an island versus the other models being the most far east.  So this will probably go down as either a huge victory for that model or perhaps one of it's most spectacular failures.  If the GFS if correct though, people in Maine will get absolutely pounded.


----------



## soposkier (Feb 12, 2014)

I like this map, less shoveling to get out Friday morning in the metro boston area.


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## j law (Feb 12, 2014)

Please feed my addiction more maps with huge snow totals!!!!!


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

j law said:


> Please feed my addiction more maps with huge snow totals!!!!!



You want a big prediction?  These guys are going HUGE.  

Way higher snow totals than NWS and pretty much anyone else, so take it FWIW, but at least they have ballz.  I can tell you that there are lots of folks who believe this does indeed habe that 15" to 18" potential, but they're not going to put their reputations on the line for it, preferring the safety of swimming with the larger school of fish.


----------



## billski (Feb 12, 2014)

steamboat1 said:


> I'm with you buddy.




Nothing to see here.  Move along...   Go to AmericanWx if you need exactitude, scientific analysis.  This is a discussion forum, not an authoritative news source.  To me not a lot more than bar room talk amoung friends.  Meet you at the bar on Friday?


----------



## billski (Feb 12, 2014)

gladerider said:


> Oh. And I'm also from NJ. FU. Jersey strong b!tch.
> 
> Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk


  Did you get kicked out of TGR?


----------



## WJenness (Feb 12, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> So last night's 00z GFS was extremely confusing, especially given it had the advantage over the other models of near live data via dropsondes.  Annndddd not much changed, it's still on an island versus the other models being the most far east.  So this will probably go down as either a huge victory for that model or perhaps one of it's most spectacular failures.  If the GFS if correct though, people in Maine will get absolutely pounded.



I'll be in Maine by midnight tonight doing my snow dance.


----------



## hammer (Feb 12, 2014)

Not looking forward to the mess in near Boston but glad that a lot of ski country is forecast to get thumped by this one.


----------



## vermonter44 (Feb 12, 2014)

I'll be hitting up Elk tomorrow. They should have around 6 inches by morning and with the snow all day tracks will hopefully fill in during the day


----------



## cbackman (Feb 12, 2014)




----------



## dlague (Feb 12, 2014)

Wavewheeler said:


> +1
> 
> And I also like the weather maps and "speculation" that is posted in threads like this one. It's awesome to see people getting EXCITED about the prospect of a big snowstorm rather than bitching about it.   Keep up the good work!



+1


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

The 12z GFS is out and COMPLETELY CAVED to the other models.  

Hey, better late than never!

This is GOOD news for most of ski country, as that "far east" path that the GFS had is off the table.  

You'll find me in Northern Vermont this weekend!

EDIT: with picture showing what I mean






You can clearly see this is noticeably to the west of where the GFS had been.  It's now hugging the coast and sucking up water.


----------



## gladerider (Feb 12, 2014)

billski said:


> Did you get kicked out of TGR?



Nope. You must be thinking of someone else. 

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk


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## flightschool (Feb 12, 2014)

Update - Accuweather saying 6-12 will now extend up to Burlington with central VT over a foot...  Based on GFS coming in line with Euro, many say catskills could see 20".  Everyone is going to do great!!!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

flightschool said:


> Everyone is going to do great!!!


----------



## from_the_NEK (Feb 12, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


>



:beer:


----------



## Nick (Feb 12, 2014)

time to turn on nature's fangun


----------



## fbrissette (Feb 12, 2014)

flightschool said:


> Update - Accuweather saying 6-12 will now extend up to Burlington with central VT over a foot...  Based on GFS coming in line with Euro, many say catskills could see 20".  Everyone is going to do great!!!




Just did some incredible acrobatics to clear up my schedule Friday.   Woohoo !!!


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## JDMRoma (Feb 12, 2014)

fbrissette said:


> Just did some incredible acrobatics to clear up my schedule Friday.   Woohoo !!!



Finally told my wife I was skiing Friday......Gotta Love Texting !!

Funny I told work on Monday !


----------



## catsup948 (Feb 12, 2014)

I bet schools around here try to avoid a snowday.  They go early release tomorrow and hope the storm is done by 7 am Friday.   Plan will go poorly I'm sure!

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

Bastardi's kid issues his final map


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## flightschool (Feb 12, 2014)

I absolutely need those blizzard conditions along Boston to maintain into Friday morning.  Hope the storm slows down a bit.  I have mandatory participation unless canceled :-o


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

Just read that the temps in the south for this storm are coming in a good 2 to 4 degrees colder than expected.


----------



## skiberg (Feb 12, 2014)

That's not indicative of NE though, correct? The high will have moved off shore a bit and may not pull down as much col air. Is that correct?


----------



## flightschool (Feb 12, 2014)

Correct but it will still help.  worth watching new Accuweather video.  very detailed.  Calls for all out blizzard in Maine,NH.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...uld-evolve-in/2430839568001?channel=top_story


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## jaysunn (Feb 12, 2014)

O yeah, CEO just said work from home tomorrow, possibly Friday.  I am thinking my house will have a power outage, and all cell tower communication will be lost.  Can't wait for all the TR's.


----------



## JDMRoma (Feb 12, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Bastardi's kid issues his final map



Love that 12-18 Band….its lining up Perfect for NH Ski areas !!!!


----------



## El Bishop (Feb 12, 2014)

With a departure window opening tomorrow afternoon, when makes the most sense to leave Boston for Northern VT?  Was hoping to go tomorrow afternoon but wondering if it makes more sense to wait and leave friday AM.  But for a young child in the car, I would leave as early as possible and deal with slow conditions.


----------



## lerops (Feb 12, 2014)

Leave tonight.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

El Bishop said:


> With a departure window opening tomorrow afternoon, *when makes the most sense to leave Boston for Northern VT?  Was hoping to go tomorrow afternoon* but wondering if it makes more sense to wait and leave friday AM. * But for a young child in the car*, *I would leave as early as possible and deal with slow conditions*.



Is this a serious post?


----------



## El Bishop (Feb 12, 2014)

Serious post.  would leave right now but would not have a job to come back to.


----------



## wa-loaf (Feb 12, 2014)

El Bishop said:


> Serious post.  would leave right now but would not have a job to come back to.



Thursday afternoon will be the height of the storm, so unless you are comfortable with white knuckling it to VT Friday morning would be your best option.

Tonight however would be best ...


----------



## Puck it (Feb 12, 2014)

I am leaving for Cannon Friday morning.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

El Bishop said:


> *Serious post.  *would leave right now but would not have a job to come back to.



This storm is really bad.    A lot of NWS predictions of 6" to 8" etc... are going to bust on the downside.  There will be near blizzard conditions (i.e. snow + high wind) in places.

I just ran this GEMG pane.  This is what you'd be projected to be driving in and through......with a small child in the car.  Snowfall rates of likely 1.5" to 2" per hour, maybe more.


----------



## Puck it (Feb 12, 2014)

Wind may be the problem though out of the west!


----------



## El Bishop (Feb 12, 2014)

Not sure how to interpret that chart but it looks gnarly.  I thought I read somewhere that it was expected to start later and persist into friday AM but glad to see that that doesn't seem to be the case as of now.  Friday AM it is.  Thanks.


----------



## Abominable (Feb 12, 2014)

Are we more or less guaranteed snow all over or is there a chance the Cats miss out?  Trying to solidify some plans but don't want to commit if the Cats will only see 6" and the Berks / S VT see 18".  Thoughts?


----------



## skifree (Feb 12, 2014)

im leaving fri am. pointing car north from ct and stopping somewhere!


----------



## El Bishop (Feb 12, 2014)

And was that Charles Darwin in the pic?


----------



## from_the_NEK (Feb 12, 2014)

Updated with more pink...


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

Abominable said:


> *Are we more or less guaranteed snow all over *or is there a chance the Cats miss out?  Trying to solidify some plans but don't want to commit if the Cats will only see 6" and the Berks / S VT see 18".  Thoughts?



Yes.


----------



## skifree (Feb 12, 2014)

starting to look Purdy in the NEK


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> Updated with more pink... View attachment 11094




The pink is good.  Me likey the pink.


----------



## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

ah..im back. people making possible life and death decisions based on weather hero benedict gomez. this is perfect. make your decision of whether to drive in a possible blizzard based on a guy who has no meteorological education/experience....really good idea.


----------



## Tin (Feb 12, 2014)

"I threw out my back shoveling, I won't be in today".....


----------



## Abominable (Feb 12, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yes.



Thanks man!  I appreciate all the pretty maps and snow speculation.  I love these threads!


----------



## soxfan2 (Feb 12, 2014)

We fucking BETTER get hammered at Whaleback.


----------



## fbrissette (Feb 12, 2014)

El Bishop said:


> With a departure window opening tomorrow afternoon, when makes the most sense to leave Boston for Northern VT?  Was hoping to go tomorrow afternoon but wondering if it makes more sense to wait and leave friday AM.  But for a young child in the car, I would leave as early as possible and deal with slow conditions.



The lastest Tim Kelley forecast for Jay peak http://www.jaypeakresort.com/skiing-riding/the-mountain/weather-by-tim-kelley/ indicates that the heavy stuff will only hit Northern Vermont late Thursday night and lasts all day Friday.  I would definitely try to sneak out Thursday.


----------



## from_the_NEK (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> ah..im back.....


Great... :???:


----------



## JDMRoma (Feb 12, 2014)

soxfan2 said:


> We fucking BETTER get hammered at Whaleback.




Now that's the Spirit…..


----------



## fbrissette (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> ah..im back. people making possible life and death decisions based on weather hero benedict gomez. this is perfect. make your decision of whether to drive in a possible blizzard based on a guy who has no meteorological education/experience....really good idea.



Life and death decisions ????   Dude, you need perspective in your life.   It you're well prepared, driving in the blizzard is not about life and death, it is simply about making it to your destination slower.  In the matter of life-threatening car accidents, I would argue that it is actually safer to drive in a a snowstorm.


----------



## SnowRock (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> ah..im back. people making possible life and death decisions based on weather hero benedict gomez. this is perfect. make your decision of whether to drive in a possible blizzard based on a guy who has no meteorological education/experience....really good idea.



What on earth are you talking about? ..dude is posting up maps and info from various sources. We are focused on ski impact and those types of scenarios.  Someone asked if they should drive thursday and it was suggested that is not a good idea. Would having met education and experience lend itself to providing different advice there? Just wondering


----------



## from_the_NEK (Feb 12, 2014)

El Bishop said:


> Not sure how to interpret that chart but it looks gnarly.  I thought I read somewhere that it was expected to start later and persist into friday AM but glad to see that that doesn't seem to be the case as of now.  Friday AM it is.  Thanks.



According to several models I've looked through, it appears that the snow gets rolling in the early afternoon Thursday in the Boston area. If you can get out of town by noon Thursday, I think you will get ahead of the worst of it. After that, wait until maybe noontime on Friday.


----------



## j law (Feb 12, 2014)

where are all these douches coming from?  

More maps please!!!!


----------



## MadMadWorld (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> ah..im back. people making possible life and death decisions based on weather hero benedict gomez. this is perfect. make your decision of whether to drive in a possible blizzard based on a guy who has no meteorological education/experience....really good idea.



Maybe we should listen to a guy who only posts when he is trying to win free shit.


----------



## soxfan2 (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> ah..im back. people making possible life and death decisions based on weather hero benedict gomez. this is perfect. make your decision of whether to drive in a possible blizzard based on a guy who has no meteorological education/experience....really good idea.



You're a total buzzkill. This is a ski forum and these are my FAVORITE threads- speculation and excitement surrounding snow storms. Now here's a wallet-sized photo for your enjoyment.


----------



## Abominable (Feb 12, 2014)

Dear God man!  Now _that_ is porn!


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Feb 12, 2014)

Guys, stop with the drama. Most of us are here to get good information and this banter/drama is cluttering it up.

At this point I think there should be one thread for maps and analysis to be posted, and another thread for storm banter and this "I hope x ski area gets hammered" crap.


----------



## Nick (Feb 12, 2014)

It feels like Christmas morning

Sent from my SCH-I545 using AlpineZone mobile app


----------



## ss20 (Feb 12, 2014)

I'm leaving from Brookfield CT (right above Danbury, first CT exit on I-84) at 6am tomorrow.  I'm going to Jiminy Peak via 22.  How hard will it be snowing when I leave?  Should I leave earlier?  Will I be able to get to my Pittsfield hotel from Jiminy (around 6pm)?  And finally, will the snow be done at 8am Friday when I drive to Mount Snow? 

Thanks!


----------



## soxfan2 (Feb 12, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Guys, stop with the drama. Most of us are here to get good information and this banter/drama is cluttering it up.
> 
> At this point I think there should be one thread for maps and analysis to be posted, and another thread for storm banter and this "I hope x ski area gets hammered" crap.



I'm actually a girl.....


----------



## bzrperfspec77 (Feb 12, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Guys, stop with the drama. Most of us are here to get good information and this banter/drama is cluttering it up.
> 
> At this point I think there should be one thread for maps and analysis to be posted, and another thread for storm banter and this "I hope x ski area gets hammered" crap.



Agreed. I am surprised Scotty hasn't asked you how much for Platty? I would try to spell it out like Scotty but my computer won't let me type like that :dunce:


----------



## gmcunni (Feb 12, 2014)

ss20 said:


> I'm leaving from Brookfield CT (right above Danbury, first CT exit on I-84) at 6am tomorrow.  I'm going to Jiminy Peak via 22.  How hard will it be snowing when I leave?  Should I leave earlier?  Will I be able to get to my Pittsfield hotel from Jiminy (around 6pm)?  And finally, will the snow be done at 8am Friday when I drive to Mount Snow?
> 
> Thanks!


what kind of car you driving?


----------



## Boston Bulldog (Feb 12, 2014)

bzrperfspec77 said:


> Agreed. I am surprised Scotty hasn't asked you how much for Platty? I would try to spell it out like Scotty but my computer won't let me type like that :dunce:



"How much fore my favvorite ski area in Roxbury NY? :beer:"

My best impression.


----------



## ss20 (Feb 12, 2014)

gmcunni said:


> what kind of car you driving?


SUV

I know I can make it to the mountain, and unless there's a foot, back to the hotel, but what are the expected snowfall rates at these times?


----------



## skiberg (Feb 12, 2014)

Based upon the maps and forecasting provided by benedictgomez I am leaving tomorrow mid-day with my kids in the car.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

18Z NAM out


----------



## soxfan2 (Feb 12, 2014)

:-o


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

I see from the quoted text the troll is back.  That was far more predictable than this storm.


----------



## Tin (Feb 12, 2014)

Taunton NWS's new map jumped up. 14-18" for almost all of southern NH.and 14-18" with 18-24" amounts in the Berkshires.


----------



## gmcunni (Feb 12, 2014)

Tin said:


> Taunton NWS's new map jumped up. 14-18" for almost all of southern NH.and 14-18" with 18-24" amounts in the Berkshires.


that helps me make up my mind for weekend plans... won't be fresh but should be good coverage @ B. East.


----------



## jrmagic (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> ah..im back. people making possible life and death decisions based on weather hero benedict gomez. this is perfect. make your decision of whether to drive in a possible blizzard based on a guy who has no meteorological education/experience....really good idea.



So him pointing out that Thursday isn't an advisable time to drive was bad info??? Holy shit get a life


----------



## fbrissette (Feb 12, 2014)

ss20 said:


> SUV



Winter tires ?  Don't want to start a debate, but winter tires are more important than 4WD in such conditions.


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

Tin said:


> *Taunton NWS's new map jumped up. 14-18" for almost all of southern NH*.and 14-18" with 18-24" amounts in the Berkshires.



Better late than never. What took them so long is the only question.



fbrissette said:


> Winter tires ?  Don't want to start a debate,  but winter tires are more important than 4WD in such conditions.



Now you've done it, thread gets to 1001 pages.


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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

if you listen to someone tell you when to drive, and they don't know what they're talking about, you could find yourself in a very dangerous situation. so, ya, its a pretty serious thing to be giving advice on when to drive when you're just looking at models and there's much more to it than that. I hope someone listens to you, drives when you tell them to, and winds up in a ditch.


----------



## Tin (Feb 12, 2014)

Well the past three events they have overestimated by about 2.5 times what fell. The past two storms when they predicted 10-14" in my area we didn't get more than 5".


----------



## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)




----------



## wakenbacon (Feb 12, 2014)

Thanks for posting all the maps, I enjoy reading all the speculation threads. 
- Impatiently waiting in lincoln, nh.


----------



## jrmagic (Feb 12, 2014)

The person asking for advice was thinking of travelling north Thursday afternoon are you saying that telling him to go right ahead would have been a better answer than telling him not to? Please go away.


----------



## Savemeasammy (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> if you listen to someone tell you when to drive, and they don't know what they're talking about, you could find yourself in a very dangerous situation. so, ya, its a pretty serious thing to be giving advice on when to drive when you're just looking at models and there's much more to it than that. I hope someone listens to you, drives when you tell them to, and winds up in a ditch.



You seem like a swell guy.  I bet you're really fun to ski with, too...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Tin (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> I hope someone listens to you, drives when you tell them to, and winds up in a ditch.



Asshole post of the year. I'm sure you're the type that would drive right by too.


----------



## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


>



dude i love your maps, and map porn, and it's not your fault people probably take what you say as a legit meteorological interpretation. map porn is great. It's all just snowfall maps though, get into the other dynamics/elements rather than just posting different snowmaps.


----------



## ss20 (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> if you listen to someone tell you when to drive, and they don't know what they're talking about, you could find yourself in a very dangerous situation. so, ya, its a pretty serious thing to be giving advice on when to drive when you're just looking at models and there's much more to it than that. I hope someone listens to you, drives when you tell them to, and winds up in a ditch.



Thanks asshole, appreciate it.  You bitch about how no one here has the authority to speculate about the weather, yet you haven't posted anything weather-related...heck, ALL your posts only bitch and complain.  


Yep, I've got snow tires.  So, where were we...snowfall rates, 6am, western CT?


----------



## Tin (Feb 12, 2014)

Not much tomorrow morning. Gets oing midday to early Friday am.


----------



## Savemeasammy (Feb 12, 2014)

Tin said:


> Not much tomorrow morning. Gets oing midday to early Friday am.



Headed to crotched?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## gmcunni (Feb 12, 2014)

ss20 said:


> Yep, I've got snow tires.  So, where were we...snowfall rates, 6am, western CT?



info i saw from State of CT says snow starts around 7 AM in hartford.  @ 6 i'd suspect you'll be fine to begin the trek north *




*i am not a weather expert.


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## ScottySkis (Feb 12, 2014)

bzrperfspec77 said:


> Agreed. I am surprised Scotty hasn't asked you how much for Platty? I would try to spell it out like Scotty but my computer won't let me type like that :dunce:



I miss winnchill I used get great predictions from him. I know it snow enough to make the weekend great in the Catskills that is what matters. What this Platty place lol.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

Scotty said:


> I know it snow enough to make the weekend great in the Catskills that is what matters.








EDIT: Just noticed their time period is way off though.


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## flightschool (Feb 12, 2014)

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/G...p?run=2014021218&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=042

Best map yet.


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## flightschool (Feb 12, 2014)

from_the_NEK said:


> According to several models I've looked through, it appears that the snow gets rolling in the early afternoon Thursday in the Boston area. If you can get out of town by noon Thursday, I think you will get ahead of the worst of it. After that, wait until maybe noontime on Friday.



So what you're telling me is the storm will still be going hard 6-9 AM Friday in Boston?  According to what model?  I need an idea because it affects my plans... Might have to jump the gun and book a place and leave before school officially cancels.


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

Take a look at the live radar though and marry it to the maps, snow is breaking out in the southern locations about 2'ish hours or more earlier than expected.  

Dunno how that's going to play out up north given the go, crawl, go, crawl nature some mets are expecting, but it's the type thing you'll probably want to monitor if you're planing on leaving early.


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## wa-loaf (Feb 12, 2014)

flightschool said:


> So what you're telling me is the storm will still be going hard 6-9 AM Friday in Boston?  According to what model?  I need an idea because it affects my plans... Might have to jump the gun and book a place and leave before school officially cancels.



According to the radio it's supposed to get started around morning rush hour and really kick in at noon.


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## LiquidFeet (Feb 12, 2014)

Istone, you are raining on my party.
Please go away.
Have you found TGR yet?


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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

nice edit. wah wah wah wah. can anyone on here give a reasonable justification of what part of new england will get the most snow?


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## gmcunni (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> nice edit. wah wah wah wah. can anyone on here give a reasonable justification of what part of new england will get the most snow?


londonderry VT


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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

nah haven't found TGR, unlike you guys, because I don't spend 99% of my day living it up on internet forums...


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## Tin (Feb 12, 2014)

Savemeasammy said:


> Headed to crotched?
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Planning on it and the Whale.


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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

gmcunni said:


> londonderry VT



thanks...no justification though...I'm not sure anyone can give a justified answer though...if they could someone probably would every time theres a storm like this


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## flightschool (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> thanks...no justification though...I'm not sure anyone can give a justified answer though...if they could someone probably would every time theres a storm like this



Hey, since you're on the forum you must be into skiing. why don't you meet me at sugarbush saturday and we can ski together?


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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

that's what im trying to figure out..where to ride Friday...and Saturday maybe...I think northern greens might be the pick for Saturday though...lingering moisture at 850mb while the 2nd Low moves through with west winds..


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

What use is putting trolls on the ignore list if people keep feeding the troll by quoting him?


----------



## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> What use is putting trolls on the ignore list if people keep feeding the troll by quoting him?



awww benedict is upset


----------



## gmcunni (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> that's what im trying to figure out..where to *ride* Friday...



ah, a boarder, should have known.


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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

gmcunni said:


> ah, a boarder, should have known.



haha gmcunni with the original and hilarious joke of the day


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## gmcunni (Feb 12, 2014)

my previous post was off-topic for a storm speculation thread, my apologies to the community


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## Tin (Feb 12, 2014)

Just like snowlover... stop feeding it.


----------



## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

gmcunni said:


> my previous post was off-topic for a storm speculation thread, my apologies to the community



9507 posts...kid is living it up (on a cheesy internet snow thread)


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## ss20 (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> 9507 posts...kid is living it up (on a cheesy internet snow thread)



29 posts- and they're all trolling...kid is hatin' it up...


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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

i like how i was criticized in the beginning of this for NOT having many posts...as if sitting around and posting to a snow thread on the internet all day is cool....seriously benedict thanks for the laugh on that one.


----------



## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

ss20 said:


> 29 posts- and they're all trolling...kid is hatin' it up...



only like 25 are trolling...the other were for lift tickets...which i won...11 lift tickets won so far this year. how happy does that make everyone?


----------



## gmcunni (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> 9507 posts...kid is living it up (on a cheesy internet snow thread)


thanks for noticing


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## Rowsdower (Feb 12, 2014)

This guy just wants us to stay home so he gets all the powder to himself.


----------



## ss20 (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> only like 25 are trolling...the other were for lift tickets...which i won...11 lift tickets won so far this year. how happy does that make everyone?



Considering you entered TWO contests this season (and won neither) I doubt that.  

Putting this guy on ignore.  I can handle a troll...even one that wishes I crash into a ditch tomorrow...but a lying troll?  That's wrong dude.


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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

Rowsdower said:


> This guy just wants us to stay home so he gets all the powder to himself.



Definitely. I think the NE winds will help Sunday river for Friday morning but as the storm moves off they'll shift to the west and saddleback will keep getting it. And the greens even more over the rest of fri/sat


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## abc (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> ah..im back. people making possible life and death decisions based on weather hero benedict gomez. this is perfect. make your decision of whether to drive in a possible blizzard based on a guy who has no meteorological education/experience....really good idea.


Someone's taking the internetz far too seriously.

And he thinks everyone else is taking it as seriously as he does. 



lstone84 said:


> unlike you guys, because I don't spend 99% of my day living it up on internet forums...


That explains it. Internetz virgin!


----------



## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

Hard to keep track of where I won em from


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## Boston Bulldog (Feb 12, 2014)

Pretty sure Stoner is Snowlover's ghostnic.


----------



## Nick (Feb 12, 2014)

Jesus.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## jrmagic (Feb 12, 2014)

gmcunni said:


> londonderry VT


Cmon man. We don't need weenies like him at Magic. That said from your fingers to Ullr's ears


----------



## ScottySkis (Feb 12, 2014)

Boston Bulldog said:


> Pretty sure Stoner is Snowlover's ghostnic.



Just because he uses #420 doesn't mean he chilly at all.


----------



## wa-loaf (Feb 12, 2014)

... Winter storm warning remains in effect from 7 am thursday to 7 am est friday...
* locations... Include western... Central and interior northeast massachusetts... As well as southern new hampshire.
* hazard types... Snow possibly mixing with sleet and freezing rain for areas along a line from springfield to worcester ma northeast to manchester nh. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be possible.
* accumulations... *snow accumulation of 12 to 16 inches.*.. Along with around a tenth of an inch of ice.
* timing... Snow developing during thursday morning becoming heavy at times before changing to sleet and freezing rain late thursday and thursday evening... Mainly central and northeast ma. Heavy snow likely western ma to southern nh thursday night.
* impacts... Travel will be difficult early thursday into friday morning.
* winds... Northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.


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## catsup948 (Feb 12, 2014)

gmcunni said:


> that helps me make up my mind for weekend plans... won't be fresh but should be good coverage @ B. East.



Berkshire East has good coverage right now!  They may likely jackpot tomorrow.  Friday should be real good.

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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

Berkshire will be great. You have to look at the timing of the snow though and focus on where will get the most between lifts closing Thursday and lifts opening Friday. Western ME looks best for highest totals off hours. Otherwise it'll get somewhat to mostly tracked out Thursday depending on the mountain and when it starts. 


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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

Personally, I'd take 12-14 where most fell after lifts closed versus 16-18 where it was being tracked out all day. It will be good almost everywhere though with this storm. 


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

Tin said:


> Just like snowlover... stop feeding it.



Yes, except snowlover was a good troll because he "pretended" to be interested and fooled the mods for a while.


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## catsup948 (Feb 12, 2014)

If the winds are as strong as forecasted driving anywhere after noon tomorrow is going to be a challenge.  1-2 inch and hour rates with 20-30 mph winds equals whiteout!

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## ALLSKIING (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> i like how i was criticized in the beginning of this for NOT having many posts...as if sitting around and posting to a snow thread on the internet all day is cool....seriously benedict thanks for the laugh on that one.


Your getting yourself close to not being able to make any posts at all.


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## ALLSKIING (Feb 12, 2014)

BenedictGomez said:


> Yes, except snowlover was a good troll because he "pretended" to be interested and fooled the mods for a while.


Not fooled just needed to stick with the ban plan.


----------



## John W (Feb 12, 2014)

*Headed to Elk !!  Blue Pants, Blue North face jacket, black helmut! - THursday*

Headed to Elk thursday in case anyone wants to head a little north





Wavewheeler said:


> Wow, looks like a home run for the Catskills and Poconos. I want to do a run up to Camelback. I was thinking Thursday. Have Jeep, will travel in snow. I'm inclined to do Friday but I'm thinking with the beginning of a holiday weekend, a lot of people taking off early and the roads being cleared that CB will be a zoo. I'll probably have the place to myself on Thursday.
> 
> Looks like a rain/mix where I am. Hopefully this will trend NW.
> 
> Either way I get to listen to all my friend bitch about how horrible this winter is. I don't know..I'M having an AWESOME time!


----------



## mlctvt (Feb 12, 2014)

Looking good for southern VT NOAA Albany has upped the forecast for southern VT to 14"-18" now for Mount Snow and Magic. The total QFP is forecasted to be in the 1.5- 2.0" range with a possible 2.5" so these numbers are conservative. There's a possibility for more depending on the backend/upslope. Has anyone heard anything about wind following this storm? It'd really suck to have wind holds Friday/Saturday


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

mlctvt said:


> *Has anyone heard anything about wind following this storm? It'd really suck to have wind holds Friday/Saturday*



I ran the wind maps around noon today for the weekend, and they looked shockingly gentle.  Didnt bother with Friday since I cant ski then (travel day).


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## flightschool (Feb 12, 2014)

Wondering the same as above, any word on the wind Fri/Saturday?


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## flightschool (Feb 12, 2014)

Sweeeet thanks!


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

mlctvt said:


> * Has anyone heard anything about wind following  this storm? It'd really suck to have wind holds Friday/Saturday*





flightschool said:


> *Wondering the same as above, any word on the wind Fri/Saturday?*



Here you go.     This is Friday.  Looks lovely.







Saturday looks all good in the hood.







Only thing to note is this is a 12Z map, and obviously this should be revisited tonight given much better "real world" data will have been digested by the models, so it could easily change, but so far so good...


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## Nick (Feb 12, 2014)

catsup948 said:


> Berkshire East has good coverage right now!  They may likely jackpot tomorrow.  Friday should be real good.
> 
> Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk



Are you going? I'm thinking of Berkshire Friday as well

Sent from my SCH-I545 using AlpineZone mobile app


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)

00z NAM is out, and it just buried where I live in New Jersey in approximately 22" of snow.

The scary thing is, unlike most juicy-juice NAM runs, given this is incoming colder than modeled, I dont think that's outlandish.


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## Nick (Feb 12, 2014)

Like!

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## catsup948 (Feb 12, 2014)

Nick said:


> Are you going? I'm thinking of Berkshire Friday as well
> 
> Sent from my SCH-I545 using AlpineZone mobile app



Yes!  I live minutes away. 

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## Nick (Feb 12, 2014)

I've never been. Let me know thinking of going for a morning to maybe 1pm run

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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

Haha oh no banned from this amazing thread? How could I go on living. Seriously you guys are funny. I think the winds will be very bad tomorrow. 


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## gmcunni (Feb 12, 2014)

i like stoney... he's not bannable


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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

Ban plan? Seriously? That's an actual thing? Ok real question. Has anyone rode Sunday river on a powder day? I tend to stay away from mountains like that but I like how it's looking for snow and would like to know how it rides in pow...


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## deadheadskier (Feb 12, 2014)

Sunday River is great on a Powder Day.  Huge terrain and plenty of opportunity to find untracked all day long.

What do you mean by, "Mountains like That"

It's popularity?

and yes, there is a system of temporary ban escalating to permanent ban.  We do not want people trolling threads and turning them into mud flinging flame wars; which you seem to be getting your jollies doing here.  So, cut the shit dude.


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## flightschool (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> Ban plan? Seriously? That's an actual thing? Ok real question. Has anyone rode Sunday river on a powder day? I tend to stay away from mountains like that but I like how it's looking for snow and would like to know how it rides in pow...
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



On trail on a weekday, it rides better than many IMO.  It is so vast and has so many lifts, if you know how to work it there is untouched most of the day.


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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

I'm not doing that. I was genuinely concerned about what could happen if people take weather info from non mets. like gospel. Voiced my opinion and moved on. So should everyone else. 

Mountains like that...yes..super crowded, not that steep (as I remember - it's been a while since I've been there), usually not in the snow jackpot etc.  


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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

Flightschool and deadhead...that's what I was thinking regarding the benefit of high acreage there. 


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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

Oh and also. I've never trolled a thread in my life. Alpine zone posted this thread on Facebook, that's how I found it. Clearly I don't troll threads...look at my post #. 


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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

For those interested in commutes, this just in from nws re: start times...


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## vermonter44 (Feb 12, 2014)

John W said:


> Headed to Elk thursday in case anyone wants to head a little north



Ill also be at Elk hopefully they get 6 tonight which is around what the local guys are saying.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> lets have a bunch of amateurs post models and maps they know nothing about, great, keep going!



This was your first post in the thread.  Sure seemed like you were concerned with the masses being lead of the cliff by Benedict.  Nope, not at all an unprovoked troll on another member.

And even if you were generally concerned with people taking his advice as scripture;  who anointed you "protector of the naive"????   Do you call up your local TV station weathermen and scream at them for reposting models they got from the Weather Station because they maybe misleading the masses?

This is a ski site.  People get excited about storms and meteorology.....some more than others.  

If you don't like reading others excitement about upcoming potential storms, then I'd say AZ isn't for you.  

At the very least, stop reading these kinds of threads if they piss you off so badly you feel a call to arms to troll other members.

Got it?


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## gmcunni (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> For those interested in commutes, this just in from nws re: start times...View attachment 11110


storm moving quicker than expected? i'd seen the same report earlier but start times were later.


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## gmcunni (Feb 12, 2014)

deadheadskier said:


> ...



where you skiing this weekend?


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## lstone84 (Feb 12, 2014)

No deadhead. Based on that pile of poop you just posted, hopefully never 'getting' what you got. 


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## Not Sure (Feb 12, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> No deadhead. Based on that pile of poop you just posted, hopefully never 'getting' what you got.
> 
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone



"Lighten up Francis"


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## Wavewheeler (Feb 12, 2014)

Looks like Friday could be a bit windy. Will there be mixing in the Poconos or should I just head up to the Catskills and drive the extra hour? I'm reading about snow turning to sleet and rain in the Pokes and it will be a heavy, wet snow so I'm wondering if the snow will be "better" up north due to colder temps. 

Glad to NNE is getting some action on this one. 

I'd LOVE to head up further north but I only have Friday to ski. I was thinking of skiing tomorrow (Thursday) but travel conditions, high wind, etc put that to rest. Friday looks better for a lot of reasons. 

If you are traveling tomorrow, good luck and be safe!


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## deadheadskier (Feb 12, 2014)

gmcunni said:


> where you skiing this weekend?




working 

hoping for leftovers on Monday.  1st significant storm I've missed all season


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## BenedictGomez (Feb 12, 2014)




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## abc (Feb 13, 2014)

lstone84 said:


> No deadhead. Based on that pile of poop you just posted, hopefully never 'getting' what you got.


If you don't "get" what the moderator "got", then it's a sign that you don't belong!

It'll simply be a matter of time you get banned, probably for a reason you never "get".


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## lstone84 (Feb 13, 2014)

abc said:


> If you don't "get" what the moderator "got", then it's a sign that you don't belong!
> 
> It'll simply be a matter of time you get banned, probably for a reason you never "get".



what i don't get, is being talked down to by some pathetic internet hero thread master known as a 'moderator' with the classic stink of scumbag entitlement. closing a post to someone with 'got it?' is really immature, and condescending, sad to see that from a 'moderator'. if these threads can't handle sarcasm or one criticism, then that's pretty sad. everyone else here is expressing their opinion, so there's no reason why I shouldn't be able to express mine, even if its questioning the majority, and not agreeing with all the self important weather experts. i keep trying to move on, but you guys keep bringing it up. get over it. i moved on to weather topics a while ago. stop acting so butt hurt that there's someone who doesn't drink up your bs like a thirsty dog. move on peeps, focus on the storm.


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## deadheadskier (Feb 13, 2014)

It's not the sarcasm, it's the insults and personal attacks that you're flinging unprovoked from the very start (which I cited).  That's not "sharing" an opinion.  That's trolling.

This thread is done.  Folks can feel free to discuss the upcoming weather event in the new thread started.


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